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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-11-12; City Council; ; Economic and Financial Update for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024-25CA Review AZ Meeting Date: Nov. 12, 2024 To: Mayor and City Council From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager Staff Contact: Zach Korach, Finance Director zach.korach@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2127 Matt Sanford, Economic Development Director matt.sanford@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-5987 Subject: Economic and Financial Update for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024-25 Districts: All Recommended Actions Receive a report on the economic and financial update for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024- 25 and provide direction as appropriate. Executive Summary The City Manager has committed to providing quarterly updates to the City Council on the city’s economic outlook and finances. The update reviews the city’s economic and fiscal health and serves as a measure of budgetary performance. In this report, staff will provide a presentation on: •National, state, regional and Carlsbad-specific economic data •The city’s most recent financial data This report also details recent economic trends and information on current impacts on our local economy. In line with regional trends, Carlsbad experienced increases in revenues in almost all categories when compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year, and expenditures are in line with the prior year’s rate of spending. Explanation & Analysis Economic update Carlsbad’s economy is diverse, has strong industry clusters and is a leader in innovation. The city is home to five key industry clusters that are driving growth: •Life sciences •Information and communications technologies •Clean technology (Technologies focused on the environment and natural resources) •Sports innovation and design •Hospitality and tourism Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 1 of 29 In 2023 Carlsbad had a gross regional product of $17.2 billion, indicating that Carlsbad has the largest economy in the county behind the City of San Diego. This reflected growth over the previous year of $600 million – a growth rate of 3.6% over the previous year. In addition, among the county's 18 cities, Carlsbad’s hospitality and tourism industry generates the second- highest amount of transient occupancy tax, the tax assessed on local hotel, motel and short- term vacation rental stays. Carlsbad’s unemployment rate has remained steady between 3% and 4% for the past year, ending the latest quarter at 4.4%. Overall, unemployment in Carlsbad has remained low. Job opportunities continue to outnumber available workers, keeping overall unemployment in Carlsbad and the San Diego region down. There were 9,056 unique job postings in Carlsbad between July and September, a similar number of postings as the previous quarter. Over the quarter, 1,478 different Carlsbad employers posted open positions. Despite a slow-down period in hiring and increased layoffs through the previous two quarters, the labor market remains tight, though employers have expressed optimism for the future. Overall, regional economic indicators suggest a healthy economy with a positive outlook for the coming year, underpinned by strong labor demand and strategic adjustments within key industries. Commercial office and industrial vacancies have fluctuated over the past year. On the industrial side, a few notable leases accounted for a drop in the overall vacancy, which is now 6.8%, and commercial brokers have not expressed any concern about future leasing. A continued increase in the office vacancy rate can be attributed to employers reducing office space to meet their current needs, a trend that commercial real estate experts expect to continue over the next 12-18 months. Carlsbad has fared better than most cities in this area, which have experienced a hollowing out in office tenants, but staff will continue to monitor this trend. As of the last quarter, the U.S. economy remained in a period of moderate growth, with gross domestic product increasing by an estimated 2.1%. Consumer spending continues to be a key driver of this growth, buoyed by a resilient labor market and wage gains. However, this persistent consumer demand has also contributed to inflationary pressures. Inflation nationally has been going in the right direction, hovering around 2.4% as of September, while in San Diego County, inflation rates have eased to 2.5%, reflecting some localized relief in housing and energy costs. The Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates, cutting the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, or .5%, in September, as economic output began to show signs of slowing and inflation remained in check. The Fed has signaled potential further rate reductions this year, but it is unclear when specifically it will choose to do so and by how much. Overall, the U.S. economy is still navigating inflationary challenges, but the outlook remains cautiously optimistic as growth persists, the labor market remains strong and there is seemingly no immediate risk of contraction. Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 2 of 29 Carlsbad home prices have remained relatively steady over the past six months. Consumer demand and low inventory have kept mortgage rates elevated. Real estate experts have suggested that further rate drops will be needed before mortgage rates drop further and transactions pick up. The current median home price is $1.52 million, an increase of 5% over the last year. To ensure the city remains responsive to the changing landscape, staff have capitalized on greater in-house economic data capabilities and analytics developed over the past year to publish a quarterly economic scan. The complete economic scan for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 is provided as Exhibit 1. Staff also publish relevant data on the city’s economic development site, carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness. Financial update The COVID-19 pandemic created immense uncertainty in the city’s revenues, most notably those from the sales tax and transient occupancy tax. The fiscal year 2021-22 adopted budget anticipated continued adverse impacts from the pandemic with moderate recovery. However, General Fund revenues, specifically property, sales and transient occupancy tax revenues, reached historically high levels in fiscal years 2021-22 and 2022-23. This was mainly due to the staggered removal of pandemic restrictions, coupled with pent-up demand and inflationary increases. When the city was developing the fiscal year 2022-23 adopted budget, unprecedented inflationary increases and its anticipated impacts on disposable income, personal savings, tourism and the housing market drove a need for conservative revenue estimating and budget tightening. As fiscal year 2022-23 ended, the primary revenue sources for the city’s General Fund continued to persevere through the high inflationary period, sustained by strong consumer demand. Fiscal year 2023-24 experienced strong growth and revenue performance, specifically with property tax and sales tax. However, as the year progressed, indications of an economic slowdown became more evident. The total amount of taxable receipts began to decline when compared to previous periods, and transient occupancy tax revenues ended the year very similarly to the prior year. Although the General Fund’s base revenues increased above original expectations in fiscal year 2023-24, as the city continues through fiscal year 2024-25, it will be critical to monitor the city’s revenues and expenditures and take necessary proactive steps to try to mitigate economic uncertainties. The September 2024 Financial Status Report is provided as Exhibit 2. Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 3 of 29 Revenues Revenues from the General Fund’s top three revenue sources – property, sales and transient occupancy taxes – reached historic highs in fiscal year 2023-24. However, there were indications that some revenue streams were beginning to level off, which is expected to continue through the current fiscal year. The table below shows the differences in revenue when comparing the first quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 with the same period in the prior fiscal year. Fiscal year 2024-25 year-to-date revenues as of September 2024 compared to fiscal year 2023-24 as of September 2023 Revenue category Change ($) Change (%) Transient occupancy tax $452,709 4% Property tax $589,765 14% Sales tax -$22,688 -0.1% Charges for services $595,002 16% Investments, property income $837,203 49% Interdepartmental charges -$180,239 -12% Licenses and permits $146,483 20% Other revenue sources -$125,762 -53% Fines and forfeitures $4,947 5% Intergovernmental -$243,014 -38% Other taxes $47,624 1.8% Total revenues $2,102,030 5% Major revenue sources Property tax The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. Increases of $590,000 for the first quarter of the fiscal year are due to an 4.99% increase in assessed property values when compared to last year. Revenue from aircraft taxes has also increased due to an increase in aircraft assessed values from the aircrafts housed at the county’s McClellan-Palomar Airport. Sales tax For the first quarter of the fiscal year, sales tax revenue was $22,700, or 0.1%, lower than the same period in the previous fiscal year. To date, sales tax revenue represents receipts that were collected for the second quarter of calendar year 2024 as well as the first advance of the city’s sales tax revenue from the third calendar quarter of 2024. In fiscal year 2021-22, the city experienced accelerated recovery after the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal year 2022-23 had historically high levels of sales tax revenues driven by inflation and sustained by consumer demand. Although fiscal year 2023-24 saw another historical high, much of the growth was driven by inflation as well as a correction of an error made by one particular auto dealer, which has since been remedied. Fiscal year 2023-24 Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 4 of 29 revealed a leveling off of sales growth and a slowdown in consumer activity. This leveling off continues into the current fiscal year as revenue trends remain slightly lower than a year ago overall. Consumers are more likely to wait for greater improvement of household economic conditions before extending themselves again, inspiring the next sales tax growth cycle. The largest economic segments in the city are automobile dealers, general consumer goods and restaurants. Together, they generate approximately 78% of the city’s sales tax revenue. For sales occurring in the fourth calendar quarter of 2024, the most recent data available shows Carlsbad’s sales were down 6.1% when compared to the second quarter of 2023. The city’s largest sector, auto dealers, showed weakened new car sales, which are largely attributed to continued high-interest rates that have caused consumers to hesitate on high dollar purchases, like vehicles. Solid activity from local restaurants, including quick-service and fast-causal establishments, partially offset the declines. General consumer goods saw mixed results with growth from specialty stores and others outpacing diminished receipts from other consumer good categories. Transient occupancy tax Year-to-date transient occupancy tax figures represent taxes collected on overnight hospitality stays through August 2024. The revenue received in the first quarter of the fiscal year represents an increase of $450,000, or 4%, when compared to the same year-to-date period last year. Average occupancy rates over the most recent 12 months have been 71.6%, which is slightly higher when compared to this time last year, when they were 70.1%. Average daily room rates in July, August and September of 2024 were 1% higher than the previous year on average. While occupancy rates remain stable, it will be important to monitor the impact of average daily room rate fluctuations on occupancy rates moving forward. Expenditures and encumbrances Overview Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances – those funds either spent or committed for specific expenses – through the month of September 2024 are $81.0 million, compared to $72.4 million at the same time last year. The remaining budget available through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, is $172.3 million, or 68% of the total. Excluding transfers out, contingencies and non-departmental charges, the percentage of available budget that is not earmarked for specific expenses, as of Sept. 30, 2024, is 65.7%, which is slightly less than the 67.5% available on Sept. 30, 2023. Pension funding The costs of CalPERS, the state pension system for government employees and pension funding, has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies like the City of Carlsbad. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan, and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS addresses a structural shortfall in the plan’s assets to cover unfunded liabilities. The city actively manages its unfunded pension liability to support CalPERS’ strategies for plan sustainability and as part of the city’s strategic, long-term approach to financial management. The City Council has approved additional discretionary payments of $56.4 million since Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 5 of 29 fiscal year 2016-17 to decrease future costs related to the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and strive to achieve a pension-funded status of 80% in accordance with City Council Policy 86. As of June 30, 2023, CalPERS’ latest actuarial valuation report indicated the city had a combined pension funded status of 73.7%, reduced from the prior year’s status of 74.6%. This reduction was predominantly driven by CalPERS’ fiscal year 2022-23 investment return of 5.8%, which was below its target of 6.8% and will be reflected in the city’s required contributions until fiscal year 2024-25. The City Council approved the establishment of a post-employment benefits trust available to public agencies – known as a Section 115 Trust – on Sept. 12, 2023. This trust allows the city to stabilize pension cost volatility, maintain local control over the city’s assets and earn a potentially higher rate of return than if the assets were kept within the General Fund. The City Council approved an initial trust contribution of $10 million on Sept. 26, 2023. As of Sept. 30, 2024, the city’s Section 115 Trust had a balance of $11,556,700, which includes the initial $10 million contribution. Considering the assets held by CalPERS as well as the assets held in the city’s trust, the combined pension funded status as of September 2024 is 75%. Staff will continue to monitor the activities in the trust and report the city’s pension-funded status to the City Council each quarter. Enterprise funds The city’s water and wastewater enterprise funds1 continue to operate in line with budgeted expectations. Operations at the city’s municipal golf course, The Crossings at Carlsbad, have remained relatively consistent year-over-year. Fiscal Analysis There is no fiscal impact associated with the first quarter economic and financial update. Next Steps Staff will continue to develop tools to understand the economy, attract businesses and cultivate talent and provide quarterly updates to the City Council on the economic outlook and the city’s finances. Environmental Evaluation This action does not require environmental review because it does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment. Exhibits 1. Carlsbad Economic Scan - Fiscal Year 2024-25 - Q1 2. September 2024 Financial Status Report 1 Enterprise funds are government funds usually used to account for operations that are financed and operated in a manner similar to private business enterprises, with the services provided paid for primarily through user charges. Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 6 of 29 1 First Quarter, Fiscal Year 2024-2025 The following scan provides an overview of key economic indicators for July, August, and September 2024 for the City of Carlsbad. This economic scan is updated quarterly to provide information that is relevant to the health of Carlsbad’s economy. For regularly updated information regarding the Carlsbad economy and economic development visit carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness. GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT Carlsbad GRP (Source: Lightcast, 2024) $17.2B In 2023, Carlsbad had the second largest gross regional product in San Diego County at more than $17.2B, only trailing the City of San Diego. From 2022 to 2023, Carlsbad’s GRP grew by $600 million representing a growth rate of 3.6%. This growth was seen across almost all industry categories, and was led by manufacturing, wholesale trade, hospitality, and professional, scientific, and technical services. JOBS Unemployment Rate (Source: California Employment Development Department, Sep. 2024 Report) Carlsbad’s unemployment rate has remained steady between 3% and 4% for the past year, ending the latest quarter at 4.4%. Overall, unemployment in Carlsbad has remained low and employers have expressed confidence in hiring. Job opportunities continue to outnumber available workers, keeping overall unemployment in Carlsbad and the San Diego region down. The unemployment rate in September was 5.3% at the state level and 4.6% at the county level. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Carlsbad Unemployment Rate 2022 -2024 2022 2023 2024 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Unemployment Rate Comparison Last 12-Months San Diego County California North County Avg w/o Carlsbad Carlsbad Innovation + Economic Development Department Gross Regional Product Released Nov 12, 2024 Exhibit 1 Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 7 of 29 Economic Scan ~ ft ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0¢' "<"o ~:>"' ..,,.❖ '<~ .;:,'I} .,.~' ..;:,"'->i. ..,.,,❖ '>~ .,_.::,% '4-<:[ ---- {city of Carlsbad 2 Job Postings (Source: Lightcast, July - September 2024) 9,056 There were 9,056 unique job postings in Carlsbad between July and September, a similar number of postings as the previous quarter. Over the quarter, 1,478 different Carlsbad employers posted open positions, a decrease of about 200 employers. The median advertised salary for these postings was $52,400, continuing a trend of higher wages. Of jobs posted, 70% indicated an education requirement of High School/GED or no requirement listed. 67% of postings indicated less than a year of experience or no experience was required, indicating there are a number of entry-level jobs being posted. In-Demand Skills (Source: Lightcast, September 2024) Job Postings This Quarter Marketing, Project Management, and Finance skills are currently among the most in-demand skills for Carlsbad employers, showing rapid projected growth of over 19%. However, a noticeable gap remains in the availability of these skills, as seen by the lower frequency in job postings compared to professional profiles. Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 8 of 29 • Frequency in Job Postings Marketing Marketing (Profiles) Project Management Project Management (Profiles) Merchandising Merchandising (Profiles) Selling Techniques Selling Techniques (Profiles) Auditing Auditing (Profiles) Accounting Accounting (Profiles) Finance Finance (Profiles) Restaurant Operation Restaurant Operation (Profiles) L___J New Product Development New Product Development (Profiles) Housekeeping Housekeeping (Profiles) 0% Skills Postings Marketing 765 Project Management 685 Merchandising 626 Selling Techniques 614 Auditing 509 Accounting 456 Finance 455 Restaurant Operation 400 New Product Development 392 Housekeeping 388 I • I I % ofTotal Profiles Postings 8% 9,820 8% 6,993 7% 1,726 7% 2,276 6% 2,017 5% 2,897 5% 2,829 4% 721 4% 3,800 4% 118 • Frequency in Profiles I 5% 10% 15% % of Total Projected Skill Skill Growth Relative to Profiles Growth Market 16% +23.0% aIBTillili1!Hl1ll11t 12% +19.8% &Mri\W♦ 3% +15.0% 43i++• 4% ·1.2% CID . 3% +21.8% aIBTillili1!rll1ll1lt 5% +24.0% aIBTillili1'H~1l11t 5% +27.3% aIBTillili1'M~ll11t 1% +28.0% MMH\fol♦ 6% +24.1% &Mri\W♦ 0% +13.3% 4iirhAt 3 CAPITAL Interest Rates (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, September 2024) The Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates cutting the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, or .5%, as economic output began to show signs of slowing and inflation remained in check. The Fed has signaled potential further rate reductions this year but it is unclear when specifically they will choose to do so and by how much. In September, one- year rates were 3.98%. Ten-year rates were 3.81%. 30-year rates were 4.14%. As of September, inflation figures for the San Diego area decreased to 2.5% (3.4% less food and energy) over the past year. Nationally, inflation in September was 2.4% (3.3% less food and energy). September 2023 One-year interest rate 5.46% 10-year interest rate 4.59% 30-year interest rate 4.73% September 2024 One-year interest rate 3.98% 10-year interest rate 3.81% 30-year interest rate 4.14% COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Market Vacancy Rates and Rent per Square Foot (Source: CoStar, September 2024) Commercial vacancy rates continued to fluctuate across all three categories this quarter. The industrial vacancy rate in September dropped to 6.8%. The office vacancy rate in September rose to 14.4%. Retail vacancy in September remained steady at 5.5%. Rental rates were relatively steady across all categories. Average market rents per square foot, per year for office rates in September were $37.94. Industrial rates in September were $22.29. Retail rates in September were $47.78. The Carlsbad office market continues to see a rise in available space as remote and hybrid work continue impacting office leases. With uncertain workforce dynamics and tight capital markets, commercial developers are still largely holding off on new office developments. This trend is predicted to continue for the coming 12 - 18 months. 6.8% Industrial vacancy rate 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 2022 2023 2024 Carlsbad Commercial Vacancy Rates Carlsbad Retail Carlsbad Office Carlsbad Industrial 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Retail Office Industrial Retail Office Industrial Carlsbad North County w/o Carlsbad Vacancy Rate Comparison Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 9 of 29 I I .. ,- ■ • ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 4 TOURISM Occupancy averaged 79.33% in the first quarter, which is an increase over the same quarter for 2023 (77.07%). September in particular had an occupancy rate of 74.2%, which was a 4% increase over September 2023. 42 With 42 hotels in Carlsbad, tourism is a major industry in terms of employment and economic impact. It is also a major contributor to city revenue, through TOT and sales tax generation. Below are several indicators reflecting the health of the city’s tourism economy. Hotel Occupancy (Source: Smith Travel Research, September 2024 Report) Carlsbad’s average daily room rate (ADR) for the quarter was a strong $257.58 an increase over 2023 levels ($255.43). This upward trend highlights Carlsbad’s continued demand as a tourist destination, with higher room rates demonstrating the region’s resilience and appeal. These figures suggest that Carlsbad continues to perform well compared to similar markets, bolstered by both individual and family tourism and its role as a business travel hub. Hotel Average Daily Room Rate (Source: Smith Travel Research, September 2024 Report) 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p 2021 2022 2023 2024 Hotel Average Daily Rate Trend 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p 2021 2022 2023 2024 Hotel Occupancy Trend 0 1020 3040506070 8090 Hotel Occupancy Last 12 Months San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA City of Carlsbad 050 100150200 250300350 400450 Average Daily Rate Last 12 Months San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA City of Carlsbad Hotels in Carlsbad Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 10 of 29 r 5 INCOME + HOUSING Median Household Income (Source: 2022 ACS 5-Year Estimates, the latest year available) Median household income in Carlsbad continues to exceed county income levels. The median income for a household in Carlsbad in 2022 was $146,596, (adjusted for inflation), which was $21,927 higher than the previous year, and $47,668 more than the county median household income. Carlsbad has generally outpaced the region in terms of household income growth. Median Home Price (Source: Zillow Home Value Index - September 2024) Carlsbad home prices have remained relatively steady over the past six months. Consumer demand and low inventory have kept mortgage rates elevated. Real estate experts have suggested that further rate drops will be needed before mortgage rates drop further and transactions pick up. The current median home price is $1.52 million, an increase of 5% over the last year. $600,000.00 $700,000.00 $800,000.00 $900,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,100,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $1,300,000.00 $1,400,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,600,000.00 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Carlsbad Median Home Price $- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $1,400,000.00 $1,600,000.00 $1,800,000.00 Median Home Price Comparison, Last 12-Months Carlsbad Escondidio Oceanside San Marcos Vista Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 11 of 29 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 City of Carlsbad Median Household Income $102,722 $107,172 $123,409 $112,933 $124,669 $146,596 County of San Diego Median Household Income $70,588 $74,855 $79,324 $82 ,426 $91,003 $98,928 City of Carlsbad per Capita Income $52,560 $55,518 $63,079 $57,607 $65,430 $66,944 County of San Diego per Capita Income $34,350 $36,156 $40,389 $39,737 $44,377 $46,957 6 BUSINESS ACTIVITY Building Permits (Source: City of Carlsbad, September 2024) Between July and September, permit activity continued a general decreasing trend for residential building permits (879). Commercial permits issued (101) marked a slight decrease over the same quarter of 2023.0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l 2021 2022 2023 2024 Building Permits Issued Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Business Licenses (Source: City of Carlsbad, September 2024) There were a total of 2,498 business licenses issued last quarter, including 1,020 non-residential, 603 residential, and 875 outside-the-city licenses. This is an overall increase of 62 total businesses over the same quarter of 2023. The total number of active Carlsbad business licenses is 9,899. The number of licenses issued does not reflect the number of businesses in Carlsbad as a business may carry multiple licenses, short-term vacation rentals are required to get a license, and businesses outside of Carlsbad that do business in the city or with the city are required to get a license. It is estimated that there are approximately 6,594 businesses in Carlsbad, an increase of 241 total businesses over the previous year. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2023 2024 Business Licenses Issued by Quarter Non-Residential Residential Outside City Total Carlsbad Businesses by City Council District Business License Activity by District Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 12 of 29 --- New Businesses Renewed Businesses Total Businesses Legend -C.,....,.0.h:1:2 ,_. ..... , • • • • District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 Shared 32 31 11 15 0 464 646 221 195 0 496 677 232 210 0 7 BUSINESS ACTIVITY Continued Largest Employers (Source: City of Carlsbad, September 2024) The following is a list of the largest employers by City Council district based on information about total employment as submitted by a business during the business license process. New Businesses in Carlsbad (Source: City of Carlsbad, September 2024) New business are defined as entities that have received a license for a location where they previously did not exist. This could also include existing businesses that have changed ownership or business license type. The information below includes new non-home-based businesses in the city according to business license filings. District 1 • Pretty Please Fashion • Carlsbad Village Yoga Co-Op• Laguna Estates • Carlsbad By the Sea • Bayshore Carlsbad District 2 • Viasat Inc • Legoland California• Thermo Fisher • lonis Pharmaceuticals • North Coast Medical District 3 • Costco • Aerotek • Hilton Garden Inn • The Neurology Center of SoCal• Vons District 4 • Omni La Costa • La Costa Glen Carlsbad CCRC • Glenbrook HC • Ralphs Grocery Company• Vons Everything BrandingReef Dermatology Rinjanie Batik and Accessories LAZ Parking - Carlsbad Village Ah Hair I Had Those ToysToni Gee and Co The Shop FOU Water Route Manager Software and Development Inc Natalie Lopez Pamela Katheryn HeyDude Lawgistics Inc Surplus Breakers and Motor Control Studio Money Discovery Children’s Dentistry and Orthodontics Columbia Sportswear PrideStaff Carlsbad Surf Up Chicken Summer23 Inc Brooke’s Nails Indigo Civil Engineering Inc SBMC Carlsbad LLC Precious Metals Refinery LLC Coastal Patent PC Royal Hospitality Holdings LLC Dr. Gary Loos Brain Body Reset Sabor a Vida Cafe and Deli Phoenix Jasmine Entos Pharmaceuticals US Inc Caliber Auto Glass Honey Palm Psychotherapy Inc Oak Optometric Care CA NakedMD Inc District 1 District 4 District 3 District 2 Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 13 of 29 8 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Life Sciences (Source: 2022 Biennial Business Survey and Industry Cluster Update) The Life Sciences industry cluster employs 6,657 workers across 134 firms and experienced a 2.6% increase in employment between 2018 and 2020. The cluster is 5.51 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $123,702. San Diego County and California have experienced parallel employment growth in the Life Sciences cluster between 2010 and 2020. In the same ten-year period, employment in Carlsbad grew by 75%. Between 2016 and 2018, Carlsbad experienced over 40% growth. Over the past two years (2018-2020), however, employment growth tapered off compared to years prior. Technology (Source: 2022 Biennial Business Survey and Industry Cluster Update) The Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) cluster employs 9,008 workers across 343 firms in Carlsbad and is 2.75 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average. Annual wages per worker average $136,254, and the ICT industry cluster experienced a 3.3% increase in the number of jobs between 2018 and 2020. San Diego County and California experienced steady parallel growth in the ICT cluster between 2010 and 2020. In the same ten-year period, Carlsbad experienced an initial decline in employment between 2012 and 2015; between 2015 and 2020, employment in the ICT cluster has steadily trended upwards. Cleantech (Source: 2022 Biennial Business Survey and Industry Cluster Update) Between 2018 and 2020, the number of workers employed at Cleantech firms increased by 22.2%. By 2019, the 48 Cleantech firms in Carlsbad employed more than 872 people. The average annual wage per worker is $109,779, and the Cleantech industry cluster in Carlsbad is 4.66 times more concentrated than the national average. Between 2010 and 2012, Carlsbad experienced an initial employment drop for the Cleantech industry followed by steady growth between 2012 and 2020. Employment growth in California peaked in 2013 and has been on a steady decline since. Growth in San Diego County also peaked in 2013, dropping by over 25% between 2013 and 2017. Since 2017, employment in the Cleantech cluster for San Diego County has been on a steady increase. Sports Innovation & Design (Source: 2022 Biennial Business Survey and Industry Cluster Update) The Sports Innovation & Design industry cluster employs 1,804 workers across 116 firms and experienced a 16.3% decrease in employment between 2018 and 2020. The cluster is 5.06 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $75,652. Employment in the Sports Innovation & Design cluster has steadily declined since 2013 in Carlsbad. Both San Diego County and California have declined steadily since 2015 and experienced sharp declines between 2019 and 2020, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospitality & Tourism (Source: 2022 Biennial Business Survey and Industry Cluster Update) Carlsbad’s Hospitality & Tourism cluster is about 1.35 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and employs 9,179 people across 467 businesses. Hospitality & Tourism experienced a sharp 34% decrease in employment between 2018 and 2020, driven by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2019 and 2020. Average annual wages per worker remain low relative to other key industry clusters, with workers earning $31,315 on average. Carlsbad, San Diego County, and California experienced sharp declines between 2019 and 2020, during which sub-clusters like Theater Companies and Dinner Theaters, Amusement and Theme Parks, and Amusement Arcades were shut down to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 14 of 29 9 INDUSTRY IMPACT Largest Industries (Source: Lightcast, September 2024) Carlsbad’s economy significantly exceeds the national average for jobs in manufacturing, accommodation & food services, and professional, scientific & technical services. These sectors, which would include tech, life sciences, and other innovation industries are generally more resilient to recessions, also represent significant job growth in the economy. GRP by Industry Industry size by employment Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 15 of 29 • Gross Regional Product Manufacturing Professional, Scientific. and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Government Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Information Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Construction Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterp.-ises Other Services (except Public Administration) Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry. Fishing and Hunting • Industry Jobs Manufacturing Professional, Scientific. and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Gove.-nment Health Care and Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing Information Management of Companies and Enterprises Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting -■I I 0 -- I I I 2 .000 S1.000B • National Average I I I I I 4.000 6 .000 $2 000B S3.000B 1• I I 8 .000 10.000 12.000 10 INNOVATION Patents (Source: 2024 Carlsbad Patent Study) The Carlsbad innovation economy is powered by the key industry clusters of Life Sciences, Information & Communications Technology, Sports Innovation & Design and Clean Technology. The figure below shows consistently strong patent activity over the past decade with an elevated level from 2017-2020. Patents are a key indicator of economic competitiveness and growth. In the case of Carlsbad it also demonstrates the diversity of the economy along with other economic drivers such as tourism. Carlsbad Patents by Industry 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Carlsbad Patents by Year, 2013-2023 The highest number of patents are issued in the broad manufacturing category which includes technology, electronics, apparel, sporting goods, and transportation. Complimenting this are the patents issued in the information category which includes satellite, wireless, and wired telecommunications. Patents in these two categories demonstrate a vibrant innovation ecosystem. Released November 12, 2024 The quarterly economic scan is developed by the City of Carlsbad Innovation & Economic Development Department. For more information, visit carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness, or contact the team at business@carlsbadca.gov. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Patent Count per Year by Industry (2013-2023) Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 16 of 29 + + + + Exhibit 2 This report summarizes the City of Carlsbad’s General Fund revenues and expenditures through September 30, 2024. It compares revenues and expenditures for the first three months of fiscal year 2024-25 and fiscal year 2023-24. In addition, the financial status of the Water, Wastewater and Golf Course Enterprise Funds are included. This report is for internal use only. The figures presented here are unaudited and have not been prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. General Fund Revenues Property Taxes ($4.8 million) – The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. According to the County of San Diego Assessor’s Office, assessed values in Carlsbad have increased by 4.99% for fiscal year 2024-25. This is the 12th year in a row that Carlsbad’s assessed values have increased from year to year, and in line with assessed value increases with other cities in San Diego County for the year. The increase in this year’s assessed values is due to increases in the assessed values of residential, 4.8%, and industrial, 7.4%, properties in the city; the city saw a smaller increase, 1.5%, in commercial property values for the year. This is the 10th year in a row since the Great Recession ended that the city saw increases in assessed values in all three property components (residential, commercial and industrial). Although increases in residential assessed values were recorded for fiscal year 2024-25 and for-sale home prices are remaining steady, the county is experiencing historically low for-sale housing inventory as higher interest rates are decreasing home affordability. The property taxes for the first three months of the fiscal year have increased by 14% as compared to the prior fiscal year. The primary reasons for the increase are: •Current taxes are up by $156,600 or 11.4% mainly due to increased assessed property values. The first installment of taxes will be received by the city in December. •A higher dollar amount of prior year’s property taxes was collected in the first three months of the current fiscal year ($365,800) when compared to this time last year ($262,700). •Aircraft taxes are also up $370,000 or 15% due to an increase in aircraft assessed values. Sales Taxes ($15.6 million) – For the three months of the fiscal year, sales tax revenues are $22,700, or 0.1%, lower than the same period in the previous fiscal year. Sales tax revenues to date for the current fiscal year represent the city’s sales tax revenues for the second calendar quarter of calendar year 2024 as well as the first advance for the third calendar quarter of 2024. In fiscal year 2021-22, the city experienced accelerated recovery after the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal year 2022-23 saw historically high levels of sales tax revenues driven by inflation and sustained by consumer demand. Fiscal year 2023-24 revealed a leveling off of sales growth and slowdown in consumer activity. This leveling off continues into the current fiscal year as revenue trends remain slightly lower than a year ago overall. Consumers are more likely to wait for greater improvement of household economic conditions before extending themselves again, inspiring the next sales tax growth cycle. September 30, 2024 14% -0.1% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 17 of 29 PRE.P,AREO BY THE Fl:NANCE 01EPAR:TMENT Financia l Status Report FOR SALE {city of Ca,rlsbad Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 2 The largest economic segments in the city are automobile dealers, general consumer goods, and restaurants. Together, they generate approximately 78% of the city’s sales tax revenues. For sales occurring in the second calendar quarter of 2024 (the most recent data available), Carlsbad’s sales were down 6.1%, when compared to the second quarter of 2023. The city’s largest sector, auto dealers, showed weakened new car sales, which are largely attributed to the continued high-interest rate environment resulting in consumers hesitating on high dollar purchases, like vehicles. Solid activity from local restaurants, including quick-service and fast-causal establishments, partially offset the declines. General consumer goods saw mixed results with growth from specialty stores and others outpacing diminished receipts from other consumer good categories. Transient Occupancy Tax ($12.1 million) – The city’s third highest General Fund revenue source on an annual basis is Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT or hotel tax), estimated at $34.8 million for the current fiscal year. A tax of 10% of the rent amount is collected on all occupancies less than 30 days (transient) in duration. Year-to-date TOT figures represent taxes collected on hotel receipts through the month of August 2024. TOT collected for the first three months of the fiscal year reflects an increase of $450,000 or 4%, when compared to the previous year. Currently, there are 5,059 hotel rooms in the city and 449 registered short-term vacation rentals. The average occupancy of hotel rooms over the most recent 12 months has been 71.6% which is slightly higher when compared to this time last year (70.1% last year). Average daily room rates in July, August and September of 2024 were 1% higher than the previous year on average. While occupancy rates remain stable, it will be important to monitor the impact of average daily room rate fluctuations on occupancy rates moving forward. Business License Tax ($1.5 million) – All entities doing business in the City of Carlsbad are required to have a valid business license. Business license revenue is estimated at $6.5 million for the current fiscal year. Business license revenues are down slightly by $3,000, or 0.2%, from the previous fiscal year. The decrease is due to a 3% increase in license renewal revenue offset by a reduction in penalty revenue from overdue business license renewals when compared to the prior year. There are currently 9,899 active business licenses, 504 more than the prior year. The majority of taxed businesses (6,721 businesses) are located in Carlsbad, with 2,550 of these businesses home-based. Interdepartmental Charges ($1.3 million) – Interdepartmental charges are down by $180,000 or 12% when compared with the same period last year. These charges are generated through engineering services charged to capital projects; reimbursed work from other funds; and miscellaneous interdepartmental expenses charged to funds outside the General Fund for services performed by departments within the General Fund. The decrease this year is the result of the budgeted decrease in the miscellaneous interdepartmental expense charged from the General Fund to other funds, which is based on the city’s most recent cost allocation plan. Income from Investments and Property ($2.5 million) – For the first three months of the fiscal year, income from investments and property is up $837,000 compared to the previous fiscal year. This increase is due to several factors including a 26% rise in yield from 2.33% as of September 2023 to 2.93% as of September 2024 along with a 2.3% increase in the average cash balance held in the General Fund as well as interest earned of $716,000 fiscal year to date on the city’s Section 115 Pension Trust. The City Council approved the establishment of a Section 115 Pension Trust in 2023 for purposes of mitigating CalPERS’ volatility, maintaining local control over city assets and -12% 49% -0.2% 4% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 18 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 3 preparing for potential future decreases in CalPERS’ discount rate. An initial contribution of $10 million was authorized by the City Council and deposited to the trust. Throughout the pandemic, the Federal Reserve had maintained an effective benchmark interest rate between 0 and 0.25%. However, inflation which had been on a historic rise for much 2022 and into 2023 which resulted in the Federal Reserve increasing benchmark rates all the way to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% as of July 2023, the highest it has been in more than 20 years. This target remained until September 2024 when the reserve reduced the target range to 4.75%-5.0%. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further downward progress, but still remains elevated. While many experts predict even more rate cuts in the months ahead, the Federal Reserve has indicated it will proceed with caution. Recreation Fees ($1.5 million) – Recreation fees are generated through instructional classes, camps, youth and adult sports, special events, parent participation preschool, senior programs, and various aquatic programs. Recreation revenues are up by $53,400 compared to last year at this time. This increase is attributable to an increase in instructional class revenue. Development Related Revenues ($1.1 million) – Development related revenues, which include building permits, planning fees, building department fees, and engineering fees, reflect a 16% increase, or $156,900, for the first three months of the fiscal year when compared to the same time last year. Development related fees are paid by developers to cover a portion of the cost of reviewing and monitoring development activities, such as plan checks and inspections. Engineering plan check fees are one of the first fees paid during the initial stages of development. Activity during the first quarter fiscal year 2024-25 included permits associated with the new residential construction of 14 second dwelling units across the city, 29 condominiums (Coral Springs at Marja Acres), 11 apartments at Romeria Pointe and various homeowner improvements. Commercial building permit activity included Toyota of Carlsbad (26,665 sq. ft.) and industrial permit activity included three shell buildings (61,753 sq. ft.) in the Carlsbad Oaks North Industrial Park. One source of development related revenue is building permits, which are $425,900 for the current fiscal year compared to $497,500 from the prior fiscal year, an 14% decrease. The year-to-date valuation of new construction in the current fiscal year is $60.3 million. This represents a $45.3 million, or 42%, decrease in valuation over the previous fiscal year. Franchise Tax ($922,000) – Franchise taxes are generated from public utility sources, such as San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), trash collection franchises, and cable franchises conducting business within city limits. Franchise tax revenue is estimated to be at $8.9 million for the current fiscal year. Year-to- date franchise taxes are $4,600 higher, or 1%, when compared to the same period last year. Cable television franchise revenues (Spectrum and AT&T) are down $36,000 representing a decrease in the number of subscription service subscribers (premium video, equipment rental, on-demand, and programming services) as more customers continue to move to streaming services. An increase in trash collection revenue accounts for the increase in the $155,700 franchise fee, which resulted from the city’s most recent contract with Republic Services, the city’s waste services provider. SDG&E pays franchise taxes for the use of public land over which they transport gas and electric services. In addition, SDG&E pays an “in-lieu” franchise tax based on the value of gas and electricity transported through SDG&E lines but purchased from another source. The “in-lieu” tax was put in place to capture the franchise taxes 4% 16% 1% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 19 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 4 on gas and electricity that is transported using public lands, but which would not otherwise be included in the calculations for franchise taxes. Approximately 48% of the city’s franchise taxes are anticipated to be received from SDG&E in April 2025. Ambulance Fees ($1.9 million) – The city bills any individual who is transported in one of the city’s ambulances. Through September 2024, receipts from ambulance fees are up $286,000 million, or 18%, compared to last fiscal year. The increase in revenue for the three months of the fiscal year is mainly due to changes to the ambulance fee schedule that the City Council approved in June 2023 based on an updated cost of service study (increases effective Sept 1, 2023). Billable transports totaled 1,893 in the first three months of fiscal year 2024-25 versus 2,002 at the same time in the prior fiscal year. Other Revenue Sources ($112,000) – Other revenue sources have decreased by $126,000 when compared to the prior year and include revenues received by the city to offset the costs of special studies or projects for developers; reimbursements for damage done to city streets, rights-of-way, and other city- owned property; donations; and miscellaneous reimbursed expenses. The decrease to date is related to a decrease in general reimbursed expenses when compared to the prior year. Other Licenses and Permits ($447,000) – Other licenses and permits consist of fire protection services, right-of-way, lagoon, grading, hazardous uses, and other miscellaneous permit revenues. These permits usually increase/decrease along with increases/decreases in development activity. Other licenses and permit revenues can vary throughout the year. To date, the increase of $218,000 over the prior year is primarily a result of increased right of way ($103,000), coastal development and grading permits ($87,700) and fire inspection services ($18,900) when compared to the same period last year. Fines and Forfeitures ($109,000) – Fines and forfeitures represent fees collected for code violations, parking citations, overdue fines, and returned checks. The city recognizes revenues when the citizen pays the fine or forfeiture, as opposed to when the fine is imposed. The increase to date of $5,000 is due to increases in code violation assessments when compared to the previous fiscal year. Intergovernmental Revenues ($390,500) – Intergovernmental revenues include homeowners property tax exemption revenue and miscellaneous receipts and grants received from the state or federal governments, as well as local school districts. Various miscellaneous receipts comprise the $390,500 received this year which represents a decrease of 38% over the same period last year. This decrease is due to state reimbursements received for two planning related state grant awards in the prior year. These grants were completed in the prior year and no additional receipts this fiscal year will be received. 18% 95% -53% -38% 5% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 20 of 29 ~·~ Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 5 Transfer Taxes ($204,000) – When real property is sold, the County Assessor’s Office charges a transfer tax. The transfer tax rate in San Diego County is $0.0011 multiplied by the selling price of the property. The city receives 50% of the transfer tax charged for sales within the City of Carlsbad. Revenues have increased over the same period last year due to an increase in property transfers. Other Charges or Fees ($149,600) – Other charges or fees are generated through the sale of city documents, such as staff reports, blueprints and copies; general fees collected for false alarms, easements and agreements, weed abatement and kiosk signs; and general services, such as mutual aid response, mall police services, emergency response services, reports, etc. These fees are up by $26,800, or 22% mainly due to an increase in mutual aid response reimbursements when compared to the prior fiscal year. A detailed schedule of General Fund revenues is provided below: 29% 22% Nov. 12, 2024Item #10 Page 21 of 29 nl Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 6 REVENUE REVENUE EXPECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL CHANGE FROM BUDGETED THROUGH FY 2024 FY 2025 YTD 2024 TO PERCENT FOR FY 2024-25 09/30/24 AS OF 09/30/23 AS OF 09/30/24 YTD 2025 CHANGE TAXES PROPERTY TAX $94,901,892 $4,332,673 $4,254,488 $4,844,253 $589,765 14% SALES TAX 59,382,534 16,099,928 15,685,796 15,663,108 (22,688) 0% TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX 34,776,940 11,900,339 11,648,275 12,100,984 452,709 4% FRANCHISE TAX 8,883,315 1,010,046 917,206 921,847 4,641 1% BUSINESS LICENSE TAX 6,560,060 1,543,846 1,517,020 1,514,031 (2,989) 0% TRANSFER TAX 1,676,136 196,494 157,882 203,854 45,972 29% TOTAL TAXES 206,180,877 35,083,327 34,180,667 35,248,077 1,067,410 3% INTERGOVERNMENTAL VEHICLE LICENSE FEES 140,000 0 0 0 0 0% HOMEOWNERS EXEMPTIONS 245,000 0 0 0 0 0% OTHER REIMBURSEMENT 544,000 227,787 633,560 390,546 (243,014) -38% TOTAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL 929,000 227,787 633,560 390,546 (243,014) -38% LICENSES AND PERMITS BUILDING PERMITS 2,400,000 648,108 497,495 425,869 (71,626) -14% OTHER LICENSES & PERMITS 973,500 186,116 229,200 447,309 218,109 95% TOTAL LICENSES & PERMITS 3,373,500 834,225 726,695 873,178 146,483 20% CHARGES FOR SERVICES PLANNING FEES 813,000 148,630 156,746 292,383 135,637 87% BUILDING DEPARTMENT FEES 924,000 230,531 186,209 157,740 (28,469) -15% ENGINEERING FEES 872,000 146,155 141,848 263,169 121,321 86% AMBULANCE FEES 7,650,000 1,862,235 1,597,552 1,883,790 286,238 18% RECREATION FEES 3,459,066 1,506,299 1,437,308 1,490,736 53,428 4% OTHER CHARGES OR FEES 1,690,500 124,196 122,728 149,575 26,847 22% TOTAL CHARGES FOR SERVICES 15,408,566 4,018,045 3,642,391 4,237,393 595,002 16% FINES AND FORFEITURES 351,700 87,915 103,898 108,845 4,947 5% INCOME FROM INVESTMENTS & PROPERTY 7,041,490 1,307,078 1,705,816 2,543,019 837,203 49% INTERDEPARTMENTAL CHARGES 5,427,750 1,339,136 1,500,405 1,320,166 (180,239) -12% OTHER REVENUE SOURCES 348,500 149,101 237,692 111,930 (125,762) -53% TRANSFERS IN 0 0 0 0 0 0% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $239,061,383 $43,046,614 42,731,124 $44,833,154 $2,102,030 5% (1) (1) Calculated General Fund revenues are 4% above estimates as of September 30, 2024. GENERAL FUNDREVENUE COMPARISON Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 22 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 7 Expenditures Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances – those funds either spent or committed for specific expenses – through the month of September 2024 (the first three months of the fiscal year) are $81.0 million, compared to $72.4 million at the same time last year. The remaining budget available through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, is $172.3 million, or 68%. If funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year, the General Fund would have 70% or $168.7 million available. Excluding transfers out, contingencies, and non- departmental charges, the percentage available on September 30, 2024, is 65.7%, 1.8% less than the 67.5% available on September 30, 2023. The fiscal year 2024-25 budget was developed with a focus on resiliency over the long-term during a time of continued economic uncertainty. The adopted budget prioritizes the goals in the City Council’s 5-Year Strategic Plan, which was based on input from thousands of community members and approved in 2022. The adopted budget eliminates the projected General Fund deficit from the five-year financial forecast that had been previously forecasted since 2019. A structural deficit describes a situation when projected ongoing spending is greater than anticipated ongoing revenue. The city’s five-year financial forecast now shows a balanced budget through 2031. Healthy revenues, increased efficiencies, cost reductions and new budget policies and practices over the past several years have worked together to close the gap. However, economic uncertainty remains as the city transitions from focusing on building and development to maintaining what has been created. As such, the adopted budget for fiscal year 2024-25 continues to focus on finding new cost savings and reducing ongoing spending while continuing to grow city reserves, prioritizing capital project funding and maintaining high quality service levels. The adopted General Fund budget for fiscal year 2024-25 increased by 10.0% or $21.5 million when compared to last fiscal year due to: • Increased personnel costs (increase of $4.6 million or 3.6%): o $1.3 million in salaries and wages due to negotiated salary increases offset by a reduction in total full- time equivalent positions of 9.7. o $2.1 million in retirement benefits costs. o $0.2 million in health insurance costs. o $0.9 million increase in other personnel costs (Medicare, unemployment and disability benefits). • Increased maintenance and operations costs (increase of $0.7 million or 1.3%): o Overall, total maintenance and operations costs were projected with small increase, Fiscal year 2021-22 and 2022-23 experienced inflationary increases ranging between 4.1% and 8.3% which drove the city’s need to contain costs and identify areas for reduction with minimal service level impacts. Although inflation has declined compared to previous periods, it was still ranging between 3.6% and 5.2% when the FY 2024-25 budget was being developed. As a result, the fiscal year 2024-25 budget adopted a minimal increase to maintenance and operations given the lingering inflation in the economy. • Increase in transfers to other city funds (increase of $15.6 million or 71.4%): o Per Council Policy 91, Long Term General Fund Capital Funding Policy, the city annually budgets 6% of General Fund revenues as a transfer to the Infrastructure Replacement Fund, General Capital Construction Fund and the Technology Investment Capital Fund to help fund major new construction, maintenance and replacement of city infrastructure and facilities and the city’s future technology needs. For FY 2024-25 this amounted to $14.4 million, split evenly between these three capital project funds. o $13.8 million in additional transfers, compared with $7.4 million last year, was budgeted for the General Capital Construction Fund resulting from the estimated General Fund surplus. The General Capital Construction Fund is funded by the General Fund and includes many capital projects programmed in the Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 23 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 8 future. The level of funding necessary to fully fund these projects is an increasing concern. This one-time transfer amount will assist with funding the city’s general capital construction into the future. CalPERS and pension funding has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS addresses a structural shortfall in plan assets to cover unfunded liabilities. In support of CalPERS strategies for plan sustainability and as part of the city’s strategic, long-term approach to financial management, the city actively manages its unfunded pension liability. Since fiscal year 2016-17, the City Council has approved additional discretionary payments of $56.4 million to decrease future costs of the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and strive to achieve a minimum pension-funded ratio of 80% funded, with a target funded ratio range of 80% to 85%, in accordance with City Council Policy Statement No. 86. CalPERS latest actuarial valuation report (as of June 30, 2023), the city had a combined pension funded status of 73.7%, reduced from the prior year’s status of 74.6%. This reduction was predominantly driven by CalPERS’ fiscal year 2022-23 investment return of 5.8%, below their target of 6.8% and will be reflected in the city’s required contributions in fiscal year 2025-26. The City Council approved the establishment of a Public Agencies Post-Employment Benefits Trust (Section 115 Trust) in September 2023. This trust allows the city to stabilize pension cost volatility, maintain local control over the city’s assets and earn a potentially higher rate of return than if the assets were kept within the General Fund. The City Council approved an initial trust contribution of $10 million on September 26, 2023. As of September 30, 2024, the city’s Section 115 Trust had a balance of $11,556,700. Considering the assets held by CalPERS as well as the assets held in the city’s trust, the combined pension funded status as of September 2024 is 75%. Identifying a potential structural deficit early has allowed the city to take a thoughtful approach to solutions, exploring new ways to reduce spending and increase revenue. While the projected future deficit has been pushed out beyond the 5-year forecasted period, city staff will continue to monitor financial and economic trends and provide regular updates to the City Council throughout fiscal year 2024-25. A detailed schedule of General Fund expenditures is provided on the next page. Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 24 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 9 ADOPTED WORKING BUDGET BUDGET AMOUNT AVAILABLE % DEPARTMENT DESCRIPTION FY 2024-25 FY 2024-25 (a)COMMITTED (b)BALANCE AVAILABLE (c) POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP CITY ATTORNEY $2,179,705 $2,179,705 $674,206 $1,505,499 69.1% CITY CLERK 1,273,604 1,339,731 369,548 970,183 72.4% CITY COUNCIL 599,047 601,542 140,179 461,363 76.7% CITY MANAGER 2,105,683 2,169,188 643,882 1,525,306 70.3%CITY TREASURER 279,522 279,522 62,332 217,190 77.7% COMMUNICATIONS & ENGAGEMENT 2,010,091 2,103,122 686,170 1,416,952 67.4% TOTAL POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP 8,447,652 8,672,810 2,576,317 6,096,493 70.3% ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 796,196 819,540 196,467 623,073 76.0% FINANCE 5,631,964 5,940,913 1,827,365 4,113,548 69.2% HUMAN RESOURCES 5,136,218 5,475,539 1,485,180 3,990,359 72.9% ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 891,866 1,149,065 482,549 666,516 58.0% TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES 12,456,244 13,385,057 3,991,561 9,393,496 70.2% PUBLIC SAFETY POLICE 60,193,850 61,288,044 19,831,041 41,457,003 67.6% FIRE 41,793,630 43,479,500 15,593,093 27,886,407 64.1% TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY 101,987,480 104,767,544 35,424,134 69,343,410 66.2% COMMUNITY SERVICES COMMUNITY SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 592,261 740,652 314,412 426,240 57.5% COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 10,998,825 13,168,772 5,129,266 8,039,506 61.0% HOUSING & HOMELESS SERVICES 3,232,287 3,565,212 1,606,517 1,958,695 54.9% LIBRARY & CULTURAL ARTS 14,522,844 14,880,569 4,116,469 10,764,100 72.3% PARKS & RECREATION 22,759,082 23,082,519 9,007,496 14,075,023 61.0% TOTAL COMMUNITY SERVICES 52,105,299 55,437,724 20,174,160 35,263,564 63.6% PUBLIC WORKS PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION 1,533,038 1,543,404 445,997 1,097,407 71.1% CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT & INSPECTIONS 3,068,292 3,152,583 928,612 2,223,971 70.5% ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 1,210,630 1,510,379 594,484 915,895 60.6% FACILITIES 7,191,930 8,232,952 3,231,591 5,001,361 60.7% TRANSPORTATION 10,741,202 11,198,697 3,930,123 7,268,574 64.9% TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS 23,745,092 25,638,015 9,130,807 16,507,208 64.4% NON-DEPARTMENTAL & CONTINGENCY (d)OTHER NON-DEPARTMENTAL 1,679,000 2,192,740 357,738 1,835,002 83.7% VILLAGE TRENCHING 0 5,220,000 0 5,220,000 100.0% OPERATING TRANSFERS OUT 37,547,678 37,547,678 9,386,922 28,160,756 75.0% CONTINGENCY 500,000 500,000 0 500,000 100.0% TOTAL NON-DEPT & CONTINGENCY 39,726,678 45,460,418 9,744,660 35,715,758 78.6% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $238,468,445 $253,361,568 $81,041,639 $172,319,929 68.0% (a) Working budget includes the adopted budget, open encumbrances from the end of the prior fiscal year, approved carry forwards of the prior fiscal year and all other mid-yearcouncil approvals. (b) Actual expenditures on a budgetary basis include encumbrances and exclude non-budgeted items. (c) Amount available would be 70% if funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year. (d) Other non-departmental includes property tax administration fees, assessment district administration, citywide litigation expenses, and other items not attributed to a specific department. AS OF 09/30/24 EXPENDITURE STATUS BY DEPARTMENTGENERAL FUND Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 25 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 10 Council Contingency The City Council has allocated $500,000 out of the General Fund budget for unanticipated emergencies or unforeseen program needs. Below is a listing of the City Council’s contingency: Donations Carlsbad Municipal Code 2.08.100 authorizes the city manager to accept donations on behalf of the city in an amount or of value of up to $5,000 per donation. These donations shall be used in accordance with the donor’s intent or added to the city’s contingency account. Below is a listing of all donations, that have been accepted by the city manager to date during fiscal year 2024-25: CONTINGENCY ACCOUNT USE OF FUNDS EXPLANATION AMOUNT ADOPTED BUDGET $500,000 USES: No uses during first quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 TOTAL USES 0 AVAILABLE BALANCE $500,000 Note 1 - City Council Policy 51 gives authorization to the City Manager, or designee, to approve Winning Teams and Community Spirit Grants up to $5,000 per grant. Department Intention July Aug.Sept.Total Parks & Recreation Leo Carrillo Ranch Cash Donations $574 $558 $629 $1,761 Parks & Recreation Opportunity Grant Donations 689 730 348 1,767 Parks & Recreation Senior Center Cash Donations 0 56 3 59 Parks & Recreation Senior Meals Cash Donations 2,359 2,437 1,465 6,261 Parks & Recreation Senior Transportation Cash Donations 268 211 185 664 Parks & Recreation Special Events Cash Donations 0 0 1,000 1,000 Parks & Recreation Teen Program Cash Donations 0 1 0 1 Parks & Recreation Parks Maintenance Cash Donations 0 0 0 0 Subtotal - Parks & Recreation $3,890 $3,993 $3,630 $11,513 Library & Cultural Arts Support Library Programs and Services $42 $100 $0 $142 Subtotal - Library & Cultural Arts $42 $100 $0 $142 Fire Food gifts for crews $0 $215 $300 $515 Subtotal - Fire $0 $215 $300 $515 Total Donations $3,932 $4,308 $3,930 $12,170 Donations Fiscal Year 2024-25 Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 26 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 11 Water Enterprise Revenues • Increase in water operating revenues due to increase in user rates effective January 2024, combined with a 5.8% increase in water volume sales. • Interest earnings increased due to a 26% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio offset by an 14.7% decrease in the monthly average cash balance. • The increase in property taxes is primarily due to an increase in assesed property values. • The increase in fines, forefitures and penalities is from rate increase of late and door hanger fees. • The increase in other revenues is from higher revenue due to a loss recovery. • The decrease in miscellaneous service charges driven by private development requests. Expenses • The increase in staffing expenses due to negotiated salary adjustments, along with the timing of pay periods, which includes an additional pay period in the current year. • Lower interdepartmental expenses resulted from the annual update of the citywide cost allocation. • Purchased water expenses have increased from the prior year due to a 11.26% rate increase in the variable cost of water purchased from the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) combined with a 7.1% increase in the amount of water purchased. • Outside services increase from asphalt repairs in current year. • Miscellanous expense decreased due to decrease in chemicals and supplies purchased. • Captial outlay decrease due to higher costs in piror year for excavator purchase. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD*YTD*YTD 2023-24 TO PERCENT FY 2024-25 9/30/2023 9/30/2024 YTD 2024-25 CHANGE REVENUES: WATER DELIVERY 45,000,000$ 11,385,376$ 12,200,972$ 815,596$ 7.2% INTEREST 660,456 163,692 185,315 21,623 13.2% MISC. SERVICE CHARGES 413,600 105,302 94,429 (10,873) -10.3% PROPERTY TAXES 3,119,800 98,806 111,506 12,700 12.9% FINES, FORFEITURES & PENALTIES 378,500 93,049 108,708 15,659 16.8% OTHER REVENUES 513,000 110,740 120,933 10,193 9.2% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 50,085,356 11,956,965 12,821,863 864,898 7.2% EXPENSES: STAFFING 4,904,778 1,223,068 1,531,814 308,746 25.2% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 3,475,547 941,222 868,953 (72,269) -7.7% PURCHASED WATER 33,850,000 8,114,418 8,667,218 552,800 6.8% MWD/CWA FIXED CHARGES 7,710,000 1,699,401 1,813,047 113,646 6.7% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 2,943,455 86,970 118,495 31,525 36.2% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 5,100,000 1,239,458 1,275,000 35,542 2.9% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 1,068,191 117,516 105,983 (11,533) -9.8% CAPITAL OUTLAY 29,211 60,936 25,111 (35,825) -58.8% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 59,081,182 13,482,989 14,405,621 922,632 6.8% OPERATING INCOME/(LOSS)(8,995,826)$ (1,526,024)$ (1,583,758)$ (57,734)$ 3.8% *Adjusted to reflect timing differences for water purchases and depreciation. WATER OPERATIONS FUND September 30, 2024 6.8% 7.2% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 27 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 12 Wastewater Enterprise Revenues • Charges for current services are higher than in the prior year due primarily to a 20% rate increase that went into effect in January 2024. • Interest earnings increased due to a 26% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio combined with a 6.6% increase in the monthly average cash balance. • The decrease in other revenues reimbursement of charges received from Vista in prior year. Expenses • The increase in staffing expenses is due to negotiated salary adjustments, along with the timing of pay periods, which includes an additional pay period in the current year. • Lower interdepartmental expeneses resulted from the annual update of the citywide cost allocation. • Depreciation increased from replacement of infrastructed has reached end of useful life. • Lower miscellaneous expenses from purchase of parts. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD* YTD*YTD 2023-24 TO PERCENTFY 2024-25 9/30/2023 9/30/2024 YTD 2024-25 CHANGE REVENUES: CHARGES FOR CURRENT SERVICES 25,206,000 5,558,309 6,912,530 1,354,221 24.4% INTEREST 288,780 59,065 81,137 22,072 37.4% OTHER REVENUES 395,700 105,731 92,316 (13,415) -12.7% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 25,890,480 5,723,105 7,085,983 1,362,878 23.8% EXPENSES: STAFFING 3,355,547 839,807 1,041,138 201,331 24.0% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 1,952,905 481,667 487,479 5,812 1.2% ENCINA PLANT SERVICES 6,124,537 1,972,764 2,712,873 740,109 37.5% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 1,768,726 117,705 67,486 (50,219) -42.7% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 8,000,000 1,312,479 2,000,000 687,521 52.4% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 848,199 143,149 107,478 (35,671) -24.9% CAPITAL OUTLAY 4,087 245 2,287 2,042 833.5% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 22,054,001 4,867,816 6,418,741 1,550,925 31.9% OPERATING INCOME/LOSS 3,836,479 855,289 667,242 (188,047) -22.0% * Adjusted to reflect timing differences for Encina quarterly invoices and depreciation. WASTEWATER OPERATIONS FUND September 30, 2024 23.8 % 32 % Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 28 of 29 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 13 Golf Course Enterprise Revenues • Primary operating revenues at the golf course have remained relatively consistent year over year. Slight increase in demand combined with increase in rates. • Other revenues decrease over the prior period due to timing adjustments related to interest earnings on cash and investments on hand. Expenses • Course and grounds increase driven by higher water use. • Cost of sales decrease corrlated to sales in pro shop and focus on lower margins in food and beverage. • Depreciation has decresed by 56% when compared to the prior year. This is due to the fact that the original course land improvements are now fully depreciated. • Miscellaneous expenses slightly decreased from prior year invoices for utility cost savings. • Capital outlay higher in prior year from replacement of mower in addition to patio furniture. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD YTD YTD 2023-24 TO PERCENT FY 2024-25 9/30/2023 9/30/2024 YTD 2024-25 CHANGE REVENUES: GOLF COURSE 5,588,000 1,630,506 1,651,595 21,089 1.3% FOOD & BEVERAGE 4,633,000 1,222,047 1,310,145 88,098 7.2% PRO SHOP 451,000 122,361 104,557 (17,804) -14.6% PRACTICE CENTER 462,000 135,511 145,467 9,956 7.3% OTHER REVENUES 209,000 330,136 300,996 (29,140) -8.8% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 11,343,000 3,440,561 3,512,760 72,199 2.1% EXPENSES: GENERAL & ADMINISTRATIVE 6,507,000 1,502,830 1,511,805 8,975 0.6% COURSE & GROUNDS 1,264,000 375,883 418,879 42,996 11.4% FOOD & BEVERAGE 384,000 92,942 105,393 12,451 13.4% PRO SHOP 101,000 16,340 9,863 (6,477) -39.6% COST OF SALES 1,308,000 357,103 315,838 (41,265) -11.6% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 1,000,000 187,500 83,333 (104,167) -55.6% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 348,000 48,502 43,002 (5,500) -11.3% CAPITAL OUTLAY 889,266 303,270 76,213 (227,057) -74.9% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 11,801,266 2,884,370 2,564,326 (320,044) -11.1% OPERATING INCOME/LOSS (458,266) 556,191 948,433 392,243 70.5% GOLF COURSE FUND September 30, 2024 2.1% -11% Nov. 12, 2024 Item #10 Page 29 of 29