HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-11-12; City Council; 09; San Diego Association of Governments Regional Update and ForecastCA Review CKM
Meeting Date: Nov. 12, 2024
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Staff Contact: Jason Haber, Intergovernmental Affairs Director
Jason.haber@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2958
Subject: San Diego Association of Governments Regional Update and Forecast
Districts: All
Recommended Action
Receive a presentation from SANDAG Principal Economist Naomi Young regarding SANDAG’s
Regional Update and Forecast.
Executive Summary
SANDAG Principal Economist Naomi Young will provide an update focused on the long-term
forecast regarding population, jobs and housing in Carlsbad and the San Diego Region.
Fiscal Analysis
This item has no fiscal impact.
Next Steps
None.
Environmental Evaluation
This action does not require environmental review because it does not constitute a project
within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public
Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical
change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the
environment.
Exhibits
1.Nov. 12, 2024 - SANDAG Regional Update and Forecast presentation
Nov. 12, 2024 Item #9 Page 1 of 37
Regional Update and Forecast
City of Carlsbad
Presented by
Naomi Young, Principal Economist
November 12, 2024
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| 2| 2
2023 Snapshot of San Diego County & Carlsbad
total population
3,290,400
1,244,500
housing units
2,291,900
jobs
San Diego County Carlsbad
total population
114,060
of county
population
3.5%
48,070
housing units
3.9%
of county
housing units
105,500
jobs
4.6%
of county jobs
Sources: SANDAG 2023 Population and Housing Units Estimates; SANDAG SR15 Forecast Series and BEA 2024 for 2023 Jobs estimate.
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Population Changes:San Diego Region & Carlsbad
A Look into the Future
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19902.5M
20223.4M
20353.6M 20503.73M
20223.28M
20353.4M
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Population Growth for the San Diego Region
| 4
Forecast to 2050
SR 15
SR 14
Historic
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
20503.4M
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Annual Population Change in the San Diego Region
| 5Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historic Forecast to 2050
1990-2022: +789K 2022-2050: +113K
2000
Population
2.81M
2042
Population
peaks at
3.43M
2020
First time
population
decreases
-43K
2050
Population
falls to
3.40M
2008
Population
reaches
3M
1990
Population
2.5M
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S A NDA G
2010+25,040 2020+12,450 2030+5,841
2040-1,748 2050-7,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural Change of the San Diego Region’s Population
Natural change is projected to become negative by 2040
| 6Sources: State of CA, Dept. of Finance; SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
Historic Forecast to 2050
Natural change is
births minus deaths
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--
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2010
+6,889
2020
-6,000
2025
+700
2030
+7,400
2050
-100
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Net Migration for the San Diego Region
Net migration is currently
negative, projected to
become positive in 2025,
back to negative by 2050
| 7Sources: State of CA, Dept. of Finance; SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
Forecast to 2050Historic
Net migration is
domestic plus
international
migration into and
out of the region
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Ten Jurisdictions with the Largest Forecasted Population Growth
(2022 to 2050)
| 8Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%
San Marcos
Chula Vista
Santee
Oceanside
San Diego
Carlsbad
Escondido
National City
Poway
Vista
+16,330
+48,240
+3,820
+10,370
+66,360
+1,200
+1,200
+120
-220
-1,260
+Carlsbad
While the San Diego
Region is expected to
grow by
112,900 (+3.4%)
from 2022 to 2050,
forecasted population
growth varies across
jurisdictions.
Percent Change in Population from 2022 to 2050
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S A NDA G
SR 15 Population Forecast for Carlsbad
Carlsbad ranks 6th among San Diego jurisdictions for net growth by 2050
| 9
2022
116K
2029
119K
2035
120K 2040
119K
2050
117K
114,000
115,000
116,000
117,000
118,000
119,000
120,000
121,000
20
2
2
20
2
4
20
2
6
20
2
8
20
3
0
20
3
2
20
3
4
20
3
6
20
3
8
20
4
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20
4
2
20
4
4
20
4
6
20
4
8
20
5
0
+4,430
people added
3.8% larger population
than 2022
+1%larger population than 2022
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
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+
S A NDA G
The Region Will Continue to Grow More Diverse
| 10Sources: American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Series 15 Regional Forecast Estimates
Note: American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander races comprise less than one percent of the population and are combined in the
“Other” category. Some other race and Two or more races are combined in Multi-Race. Races are non-Hispanic. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding.
42%
37%
34%
34%
13%
17%
4%
4%
6%
6%
2022
2050
San Diego County
66%
59%
17%
17%
10%
15%
6%
8%
2022
2050
Carlsbad White Hispanic Asian Black Multi-Race Other
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150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
San Diego Region
2022 & 2050 Military and Civilian Population
| 11Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
2022
+244K
In 2050, the 65+ is projected to
be 22% of the population…
-103K
…and the under 19 will be
20% of the population
2050
Male FemaleMale/Female (Military)
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■
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I
Carlsbad: Population by Age in 2022 and 2050
| 12Source: SANDAG Series 15 Forecast
24K
7K
62K
24K
27K
8K
65K
16K
Age 0 - 17
Age 18-24
Age 25-69
Age 70+
2022 2050
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■ ■
S A NDA G
Average Annual Change in Carlsbad
Population declines after 2035, while total households continues growing
| 13Source: SANDAG Series 15 Forecast
Population115,670 Population 120,010 Population119,250 Population118,020 Population116,790Population119,290
Households
45,800
Households
49,170
Households
49,710
Households
49,820
Households
49,930
Households
48,150
89
3,619
721
-763
-1,232 -1,232
806
2,353
1,023
540 107 107
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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• • • • • •
S A NDA G
Housing Stock: San Diego Region & Carlsbad
A Look at How Housing Stock Changes
14
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Forecast to 2050
993,288
1,112,265
1,174,354
1,287,030
1,368,646 1,396,492
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
San Diego Region Housing Units
| 15
Historic
Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units
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Annual Change in Housing Units in the San Diego Region
| 16
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
The region is projected to add 202.8K housing
units. Growth tapers off by 2048, and the
vacancy rate rises from 6.1% to 7.2%.
Housing Units 1.04M Housing Units 1.16M
2001-2010
+103.9K
Housing Units 1.22M Housing Units 1.31M Housing Units 1.41M Housing Units 1.44M
2011-2020
+58.1K
2021-2030
+105.9K
2031-2040
+72.2K
2041-2050
+22.0K
Forecast to 2050Historic
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S A NDA G
San Diego Region Housing Units Growth by Decade
| 17Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units
71,156
26,250 30,174
8,387 1,233
47,821
35,839
82,502
73,229
26,613
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Single Family Multi-Family
Forecast to 2050Historic
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S A NDA G
| 18Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units
30%32%39%38%37%
65%63%57%57%59%
Forecast to 2050Historic
97
4,078
194
-2-290
3,806
1,592
319
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2020 2030 2040 2050
Single Family Multi-Family
Carlsbad Housing Units Growth by Decade
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| 19
Carlsbad Housing Growth: 2022-2050
6,130 housing
units (+13%)
added between
2022 and 2050
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• .. wa_
Oceanside
►
Pacific Ocean
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Housing 2022 -2050
New Housing Units per Acre
Greater than 50
20.7 -50.0
70.7 -20.0
5.7 -70.0
2.7 - 5.0
7.7 - 2.0
7 or few er
MILES
0
S A ~G
2 A
N
Source: SAN DAG Draft Series 75
Vista
_/
T
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I _........--... _
' ~ ' /-~I r _/ -\} v:__ ___ j
I -I [_
Carlsbad ..,
Encinitas
l_~-1
-\-•r1 ' ,_
r--::-, __ J i'..-,
,/ -l. I ,_,--,
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/-,;-I I
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~· County of
San Diego
' ' > --, '-~ -~--i--~
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Employment Centers in Carlsbad
20
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Employment Centers 2.0
| 21Sources: SANDAG including LODES 7.3, 2015; LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022
Tier 1: 19%
Tier 2: 26%
Tier 3: 13%
Tier 4: 21%
Not in EC: 22%
400K
551K
272K
446K
471K
2.14M
Jobs
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S A DA G
Pala
Reservation
Pauma and Yuima
Reservation
Valley Center
-~~1 La Jolla
Reservation
County of San Diego
Santa Ysabel
Reservation
Mesa Grande
Reservation
·tl)'--
Capitan Grande
Reservation
Syc'iiiEJr,J
Rese#ation
Jamul
Dulzura
~L--_
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Employment Center and Tier
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 22
47,049
20,912
17,508
9,212
8,549
8,500
CarlsbadPalomar Airport
Vista
Tech Park
Carlsbad
State Beach
El Camino
Carlsbad
Village
Oceanside
Tri-city
Employment Center Jobs
Tier 242%
Tier 334%
Tier 424%
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Employment
Center 2.0
-Tierl
-Tier2
-Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Sector in Tier 2 and 3 Employment Centers
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 23
3, Carlsbad
State Beach
2, Vista
Tech Park
1, Carlsbad
Palomar Airport
Business Services
Finance
Healthcare
Retail
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Food
Government
Gig jobs
Other
Wholesale
Entertainment
17%
14%
6%
10%
20%
28%
9%
11%
9%
13%
14%
41%
19%
21%
7%
8%
10%
15%
19%
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Employment
Center 2.0
-Tierl
-Tier2
-Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Sector in Tier 4 Employment Centers
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 24
6, Oceanside
Tri-city
5, Carlsbad
Village
4, El Camino
Business Services
Finance
Healthcare
Retail
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Food
Government
Gig jobs
Other
Wholesale
17%
13%
23%
33%
15%
7%
21%
44%
15%
21%
13%
19%
23%
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Employment
Center 2.0
-Tierl
-Tier2
-Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Wage and Salary Jobs Filled by City’s Residents
| 25
Nearly 1 in 5 wage and salary jobs in Carlsbad are filled by its residents.
39%
35%
32%
22%
20%
19%
19%
19%
19%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
8%
7%
4%
Oceanside
Chula Vista
Escondido
Vista
Encinitas
Carlsbad
Imperial Beach
San Marcos
El Cajon
Santee
Coronado
National City
Poway
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
Solana Beach
Del Mar
+Carlsbad
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S A NDA G
Employment Centers in and around Carlsbad
14% of jobs are filled by Carlsbad
residents
The three employment centers located in Carlsbad draw nearly half of its workers from three areas: Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Vista
| 26
17%
18%
26%
10%
10%
18%
20%
27%
30%
32%
16%
12%
12%
11%
10%
16%
18%10%12%
33%
32%
22%
37%
25%
33%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Carlsbad
Palomar Airport
Carlsbad
State Beach
Carlsbad
Village
El Camino
Oceanside
Tri-city
Vista
Tech Park
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Escondido Encinitas Other
Employment Center Where Carlsbad Employees Travel FromNo
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■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
Employment
27
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Jobs by Sector in the San Diego Region
| 28
Manufacturing
126K
Retail/Wholesale trade239K
Transportation
and
warehousing
93K
Finance/Real
Estate/Management
279K
Innovation280K
Education151K
Healthcare and
social
assistance253K
Tourism
229KOther Business Support and Personal Services269K
Active-Duty Military91K
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Employment by Industry, San Diego MSA, 2022 (Nov 2023);
SANDAG Aggregations; SANDAG Series 15 Employment Forecast, 2022
23KAgric/Utilities
•In 2022, San Diego had
2.27M jobs in 13 sectors.
No sector has more than
12% of the jobs.
•Looking to 2050, the
economy continues to be
diverse, but four sectors
lead in job creation Construction
116K
Government124K
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S A NDA G
Retail/Wholesale trade239K
Education151K
Other Business Support and Personal Services269K
Active-Duty Military91KManufacturing
126K
Transportation
and
warehousing
93K
Finance/Real
Estate/Management
279K
Innovation280K
Healthcare and
social
assistance253K
Tourism
229K
Transportation and warehousing93K
Four Driving Sectors for the San Diego Region
| 29Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Employment by Industry, San Diego MSA, 2022 (Nov 2023); SANDAG Aggregations;
SANDAG Series 15 Employment Forecast, 2022
23KAgric/Utilities
Innovation
280K
Innovation (12% of 2022 jobs)
•Cutting-edge development in
engineering, cybersecurity, AI/machine
learning, defense, and medical technology
Construction
116K
Government124K
Transportation and warehousing (4%)
•Increased border trade with opening of
Otay Mesa East Port of Entry
Tourism
229K
Tourism (10%)
•More consumer demand for experiences
versus goods and rising travel
opportunities for older population
Healthcare and social assistance (11%)
•Increasing demands as population ages
Healthcare
and social
assistance
253K
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S A NDA G
Job Distribution in theSan Diego Region
| 30
Wage and salary
jobs increase in all
jurisdictions over the
life of the forecast
(2022 to 2050).
Carlsbad’s job
growth is 12th largest
in percentage terms
and 6th largest in
terms of number of
jobs
Jurisdiction
Jobs 2022 (Wage &
Salary)
Jobs(Wage &
Salary)
Change #
Jobs(Wage &
Salary)
Change %
Carlsbad 79,382 5,988 7.5%
Chula Vista 74,728 28,372 38.0%
Coronado 31,257 241 0.8%
Del Mar 3,799 50 1.3%
El Cajon 43,824 4,453 10.2%
Encinitas 26,140 846 3.2%
Escondido 53,869 2,101 3.9%
Imperial Beach 5,074 2,532 49.9%
La Mesa 25,250 2,214 8.8%
Lemon Grove 7,972 1,431 18.0%
National City 38,802 3,183 8.2%
Oceanside 48,112 17,165 35.7%
Poway 33,786 281 0.8%
San Diego 876,977 67,497 7.7%
San Marcos 40,133 12,184 30.4%
Santee 17,838 1,476 8.3%
Solana Beach 9,255 138 1.5%
Unincorporated 39,015 2,637 6.8%
Vista 156,419 17,968 11.5%
Region 1,611,632 170,757 10.6%
Carlsbad
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\
Camp Pendleton
_5,
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Employment 2050
• l dot represents 20 jobs
Dcirkcr colors indicate higher
concentrations o• Jobs
Source: SAN DAG Drah SerieslS
Regional Growth rorecast, 1/24/2024
MILES 0 2.S • N
KILOMETERS
SA NDA G
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Pala
Reservation
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Village -,
f
UNITED STATES
MEXICO S A D A G
Wage and Salary Jobs by Industry in Carlsbadin 2022 and Projected to 2050
| 31
Projected Change for Carlsbad
2022-2040 2040-2050
66
%
o
f
C
a
r
l
s
b
a
d
J
o
b
s
i
n
2
0
2
2
+5%+2%
+18%+11%
-11%-1%
-2%-3%
+24%+4%
Source: Series 15 Regional Forecast Estimates
14,786
13,697
8,921
8,634
6,341
Business Services
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Food & Accommodation
Healthcare
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S A NDA G
Long Term Outlook
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c~w I..
Long-Term Trends for the San Diego Region
| 33
•Job growth slows in response to population changes
•Four sectors lead in job creation for the region
•Changing workplace (telework, gig jobs, multiple job holdings)
Jobs
•Slowing population growth and decreasing after 2040
•More seniors (65 years and older) and fewer youths (18 years and younger) in the population
•More households, but smaller in size
Population
•More housing units built, despite the population trends
•Multi-family units grow as a share of housing
•Pockets of increased densification across the region
Housing
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S A NDA G
Long-Term Trends for Carlsbad
| 34
•Carlsbad ranks 6th among jurisdictions for growing jobs – adding nearly 6,000 jobs by 2050
•Three sectors lead in job creation: manufacturing, healthcare and business services
Jobs
•Population grows through 2035 and then decreases
•By 2050, the population is 1% bigger than 2022
•More seniors and fewer youths
•More households, but smaller in size
Population
•More housing units built (nearly 6,100)
•71% of housing units added by 2050 are multi-family units
Housing
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S A NDA G
Questions?
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Stay connected with SANDAG
Explore our website
SANDAG.org
Email: naomi.young@sandag.org
Follow us on social media:
@SANDAGregion @SANDAG
36
Explore our data
OPENDATA.SANDAG.org
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