HomeMy WebLinkAboutSDP 2023-0014; CARLSBAD VILLAGE MIXED-USE - SB 330; VMT STUDY - FEBRUARY 23, 2024; 2024-02-23MEMORANDUM
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To: Andrew Cerrina
Tooley Interests, LLC
Date: February 23, 2024
From: Shankar Ramakrishnan, PE &
Román Lopez, PTP
LLG, Engineers
LLG Ref: 3-22-3651
Subject: Carlsbad Village Mixed Use – Vehicle Miles Traveled Analysis
Linscott, Law & Greenspan, Engineers has prepared this Vehicle Miles Traveled
(VMT) assessment for the proposed Carlsbad Village Mixed-Use project (“Project”)
consistent with the City of Carlsbad VMT Analysis Guidelines (May 2023).
PROJECT LOCATION & DESCRIPTION
The Project is located on approximately 4.12 acres at 945-1065 Carlsbad Village
Drive, west of Interstate 5 between Carlsbad Village Drive and Oak Avenue.
Figure 1 shows the vicinity map. Figure 2 shows a more detailed Project area map.
The Project proposes to construct 218 multi-family residential dwelling units (DU).
The mixed-use Project also includes 13,800 square feet (sf) of commercial space –
5,800 sf of grocery market, 2,000 sf of retail, and 6,000 sf of restaurant. The existing
site is currently operating as a retail shopping center totaling 58,735 sf. All existing
buildings will be demolished as part of the Project.
The Project summary and conceptual site plan are provided in Attachment A.
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) ASSESSMENT
In compliance with Senate Bill 743 (SB 743), a project is required to evaluate
transportation impacts under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and
CEQA Guideline Section 15064.3. For the purposes of this VMT assessment the
methods and thresholds from the City of Carlsbad’s VMT Analysis Guidelines (May
2023) were used.
VMT Screening Criteria
The City’s guidelines provide CEQA significance thresholds, screening criteria, and
methodology for conducting the transportation VMT analyses for a variety of land
uses. Per City guidelines, the requirements to prepare a detailed transportation VMT
analysis apply to all land development projects, except those that meet at least one of
the City’s screening criteria.
Meeting screening criteria indicates that the project may be presumed to have a less
than significant impact unless substantial evidence suggests otherwise. A VMT
analysis may still be required to ensure the screening criteria are applicable.
Table 1 summarizes the City VMT screening criteria and applicability to the Project.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
Page 2
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TABLE 1
VMT SCREENING CRITERIA – PROJECT APPLICABILITY
Screening Criteria a
Applicable
to the
Project?
Project
screen
out?
1. Small Project No N/A
2. Projects Located Near Transit Yes Yes
3. Local-Serving Retail and Similar Land Uses Yes Yes b
4. Local-Serving Public Facility No N/A
5. Affordable Housing No N/A
6. Redevelopment Project That Result in a Net
Reduction of VMT Yes Yes
Footnotes:
a. Source: City of Carlsbad VMT Analysis Guidelines (May 2023).
b. Only applicable to the commercial land uses in the Project.
The screening criteria applicable to the proposed Project as shown in Table 1 are
discussed in further detail below:
Screening Criteria 2:
Projects Located Near Transit: Per the City of Carlsbad VMT Analysis Guidelines,
residential, retail, or office projects or projects that have a mix of those uses whose
project site boundaries are within one half mile of an existing or planned major transit
stop or a stop/transit center along a high-quality transit corridor would normally be
presumed to have a less than significant transportation impact. In the City of
Carlsbad, this would only apply to projects within one half mile of the Carlsbad
Village Station, Carlsbad Poinsettia Station, or the Plaza Camino Real transit center.
Result:
The proposed Project is located within one-half mile of Carlsbad Village Station as
illustrated in Figure 3. Per the City of Carlsbad screening criteria, the Project would
be presumed to have a less than significant transportation impact.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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Screening Criteria 3:
Local-Serving Retail and Similar Land Uses: In the City of Carlsbad, local-serving
retail is defined as retail development that is less than 50,000 sf.
Result:
The total gross floor area of the Project local-serving commercial uses is 13,800 sf,
which includes a 5,800-sf grocery market, 2,000 sf of retail, and 6,000 sf of
restaurant. This is below the 50,000-sf threshold. Therefore, the commercial
component of the Project meets the criteria for “Local-Serving Retail” and would be
presumed to have a less than significant transportation VMT impact per the City’s
screening criteria.
Screening Criteria 6:
Redevelopment Projects That Result in a Net Reduction of VMT: Projects are
considered to have a less than significant impact if they result in a net reduction in the
relevant performance measure (in this case VMT). Therefore, redevelopment projects
in the City of Carlsbad that generate less VMT than the existing project they are
replacing would be considered to have a less than significant impact on VMT.
The Project is screened out and presumed less than significant per the evaluation of
Criteria 2 and 3 above. However, because the Project includes the removal of existing
local-serving that may not have substitutes available in the Carlsbad Village area at
the time of this analysis, specifically grocery store and hardware store, an additional
quantitative analysis was conservatively conducted at the request of City staff to
further demonstrate that the Project will not result in a net increase in VMT per
Screening Criteria 6.
Analysis
To calculate the net change in total VMT, the total VMT to be generated by the
proposed Project land uses was deducted from the total VMT generated by the
existing shopping center. In addition, and in the interest of producing the most
conservative analysis, because the existing shopping center provides certain
neighborhood-serving retail uses which will be removed that may not have substitutes
available in the Carlsbad Village area, specifically the grocery store and hardware
store, a portion of these trips are considered “displaced” to substitute locations and
additional VMT associated with these displaced trips were also considered and added
as a part of the Project VMT.
Existing Site (to be removed)
The total VMT for the existing shopping center was calculated by multiplying daily
trip generation (ADT) by average trip length (ATL). Trip generation estimates for the
existing site were calculated using the SANDAG (Not So) Brief Guide of Vehicular
Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Region.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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Average trip length was calculated based on empirical data from the StreetLight Data
big data platform. The StreetLight platform was used to perform a zone analysis and
obtain the average length of trips beginning or ending within the requested zone.
StreetLight obtains large amounts of anonymized geospatial data records from
sources including smart phones and navigation devices. StreetLight algorithms
identify trips and contextualize them using road network information and Census
data. Continuous traffic counters are used to validate and train the models.
LLG used StreetLight to define a zone covering the existing site and obtain the
existing average trip length, which is 6.5 miles. Attachment B depicts the analysis
zone and contains the raw data output. The most recent available 12-month period at
the time of analysis (June 2022 – May 2023) was analyzed.
Table 2 summarizes the total VMT calculations. As shown in Table 2, the existing
site is calculated to generate 45,786 daily VMT.
Project Total VMT
The Project ADT was calculated using SANDAG trip rates. Project average trip
lengths were separated into commercial and residential uses.
For Project commercial (market, restaurant, and retail) uses, the 6.5-mile average trip
length of the existing site as described in the previous section was used.
For Project residential uses, LLG defined a zone immediately south of the Project site
generally bounded by Oak Avenue, Chestnut Avenue, Harding Street, and I-5. This
zone contains entirely existing residential uses and is the closest residential area to the
Project site. The resulting ATL of 10.5 miles was applied to Project residential trips.
Attachment B also shows the analysis zone and raw data output for the residential
zone.
Table 2 also shows the Project VMT. As shown in Table 2, the Project is calculated to
generate a total of 18,677 VMT after adjusting for internal trips served within the site.
Existing Site Displaced Trips VMT
The existing shopping center contains a collection of individual uses including
grocery store, hardware store, drugstore, cleaners, barber shop, and eating and
drinking establishments. There are multiple substitutes for the majority of these uses
available within a small (generally one mile or less) radius.
In consultation with the City, the primary uses in the existing shopping center are
considered to be the grocery store and hardware store and substitutes for these
specific uses may be more than one mile away. There are no displaced trips, however,
associated with the remaining shopping center uses that would be removed given the
quantity and proximity of multiple available substitutes within one mile of the project
site.
The number of displaced trips was estimated by applying SANDAG trip rates to the
grocery and hardware stores to be removed. The existing grocery store (Smart &
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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Final) is approximately 24,800 sf. The Project intends to provide a smaller scale,
5,800 sf market that will continue to serve a portion of residents’ grocery shopping
needs. Therefore, only the difference, 19,000 sf is considered in the displaced trip
calculation. The existing hardware store is approximately 9,000 sf.
The additional VMT (if any) caused by the displaced trips associated with the Project
is the additional distance that patrons/employees would be required to travel
compared to the existing site. Based on the StreetLight data analysis of the existing
site, the ATL of the existing shopping center is 6.5 miles. There are several other
grocery stores and hardware stores within a 6.5-mile driving distance of the site and
that area patrons would utilize these other stores within the 6.5-mile incurring no
additional VMT. Therefore, it could be reasonably concluded that any displaced
VMT associated with the closing of the existing site businesses is negligible.
However, to be conservative, LLG calculated an additional trip length to be added as
a penalty for shifting traffic patterns.
To calculate the additional trip length, LLG first selected an origin point at the
approximate center of the Carlsbad Village area, since the existing site consists of
mainly locally serving uses. Then, LLG identified the closest three (3) alternative
hardware and grocery establishments.
As shown above, the average distance from Carlsbad Village to the next three (3)
grocery establishments is 2.0 miles. Figure 4 shows the distance to and location of
the nearest grocery stores. The average distance from Carlsbad Village to the next
three (3) hardware stores is 4.0 miles. Figure 5 shows the distance to and location of
the nearest hardware stores. These trip lengths were used in the displaced VMT
calculations in Table 2.
As shown in Table 2, the total of Project and displaced VMT is 25,397 daily VMT.
Result
As shown in this memo, the existing shopping center is estimated to generate 45,786
daily VMT. The proposed Project land uses plus the displaced trip VMT calculated
totals 25,397 daily VMT. This is a reduction of 20,389 daily VMT compared to the
existing site. Per City of Carlsbad VMT Analysis Guidelines, redevelopment projects
that generate less VMT than the existing project they are replacing would be
considered to have a less than significant impact on VMT. Given that the Proposed
Project VMT both screens out of a VMT analysis based on transit proximity and its
neighborhood serving commercial uses (less than 50,000 square feet) and VMT has
further been calculated to be quantifiably lower than the existing shopping center
VMT, no significant VMT impact is triggered.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the Proposed Project meets the City of Carlsbad screening criteria
thresholds for Criteria 2: Proximity to Transit and Criteria 3: Local-Serving
Retail and Similar Land Uses and is therefore presumed to have a less than
significant transportation VMT impact per the City’s screening criteria.
A quantitative VMT analysis also conservatively demonstrates that the Proposed
Project VMT is calculated to be lower than the existing shopping center VMT,
concluding that no significant VMT impact is calculated consistent with Criteria 6:
Redevelopment Project That Results in a Net Reduction of VMT. This evaluation
of Criteria 6 provides further evidence confirming the applicability of Criteria 2 and 3
and through a quantitative analysis of Project VMT further supports and substantiates
the presumptions of a less than significant VMT impact.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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TABLE 2
REDEVELOPMENT VMT
Type Land Use Quantity Daily Volumes (ADT) ATL a Total
VMT Rate Volume
Project
Residential 218 DU 6 /DU 1,308 10.5 13,734
Market 5.8 KSF 150 /KSF 870 6.5 5,655
Quality Restaurant 6 KSF 100 /KSF 600 6.5 3,900
Retail / Strip Commercial 2 KSF 40 /KSF 80 6.5 520
Subtotal Project — —2,858 — 23,809
Internal Capture b — —616 — 5,132
Project External Trips — — 2,242 — 18,677
Displaced
Hardware Store (displaced) 9 KSF 60 /KSF 540 4.0 2,160
Grocery Store (displaced) 19 KSF 120 /KSF 2,280 2.0 4,560
Total Project + Displaced — — — — 25,397
Existing
(to be removed) Shopping Center 58.7 KSF 120 /KSF 7,044 6.5 45,786
Net Change in VMT -20,389
Footnotes:
a.Average trip lengths from StreetLight Data platform. See Attachment B.
b.Internal capture estimated using NCHRP 8-51 Internal Trip Capture Estimation Tool. VMT reduction calculated by multiplying captured
ADT by weighted average trip length of unadjusted Project trips.
Andrew Cerrina
February 23, 2024
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Figures:
1 Project Vicinity Map
2 Project Area Map
3 Transit Proximity
4 Grocery Stores Proximity
5 Hardware Stores Proximity
Attachments:
A. Project Site Plan
B. StreetLight Data
cc: File
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ATTACHMENT A
CONCEPTUAL SITE PLAN & PROJECT SUMMARY
BUILDING A
1 STORY
COMMERCIAL
TYPE V-A
BUILDING B
1 STORY
COMMERCIAL
TYPE V-A
CARLSBAD VILLAGE DRIVE
OAK AVENUE
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TYPE I-ABUILDING D
5 STORIES
RESIDENTIAL
TYPE III-A
BUILDING C
5 STORIES
RESIDENTIAL
TYPE III-A
EXISTING
1-STORY
COMMERCI
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EXISTING 1-STORY
RESIDENTIAL
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EXISTING 1-STORY
RESIDENTIAL
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EXISTING 1-STORY
COMMUNITY
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EXIT
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EXIT COMMERCIAL
EXIT
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289 PARKING SPACES
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REQUIRED SETBACK
01 01
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TRANSFORMER WITH REQUIRED CLEARANCE
GROUND FLOOR FOOTPRINT
EXISTING BUILDING
ACCESSIBLE PATH OF TRAVEL
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SHEET NUMBER:
SHEET TITLE:
DATE:
REVISIONS:
SUBMITTAL:
3573 HAYDEN AVENUE
CULVER CITY, CA 90232
310.399.7975
KFALOSANGELES.COM
JOB NUMBER:
THIS DRAWING AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE THE
COPYRIGHTED WORK OF KFA, LLC AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT
WRITTEN PERMISSION
NOTES
11/8/2023 10:40:02 AM
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G091
SITE PLAN -
TRANSPORTATION
& MOBILITY
11.13.2023
2022-004.00
SDP 2023-0014
GRT CARLSBAD VILLAGE,
LLC
11661 SAN VICENTE BLVD,
SUITE 850
LOS ANGELES CA 90049
1" = 30'-0"1SITE PLAN
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LEGEND
01 PEDESTRIAN CROSSING
02 VISIBILITY TRIANGLE, TYP.
03 UNOBSTRUCTED FIRE ACCESS ROAD EASEMENT
04 (E) NCTD BUS STOP LOCATION
05 RELOCATED CALTRANS TRANSFORMER
06 (E) CURB CUT
07 NEW CUL-DE-SAC CURB, SEE CIVIL DRAWINGS
08 KNOX BOX FOR FIRE DEPARTMENT
09 SECURED RESIDENTIAL ENTRANCE / WALKWAY
10 (E) SIDEWALK TO BE REMOVED AND REPLACED
WITH 10' WIDE SIDEWALK, 5.5' WIDE AT TREE
WELLS
11 (E) SIDEWALK TO BE REMOVED AND REPLACED
WITH 10' WIDE SIDEWALK
12 6' PARKWAY WITH STREET TREES
13 PROPOSED STREET TREE REPLACEMENT
14 CURB RAMP TO BE REMOVED / REPLACED
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ATTACHMENT B
STREETLIGHT DATA
Location Type Volume Length Volume Length Average Trip Length
Existing Site Zone Commercial 1339 5.7 1331 7.4 6.5
Proxy Residential Zone Residential 245 10.2 243 10.9 10.5
Average Trip Length Summary
Start End
Data Period = June 1, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023
Day Type = Weekday
Day Part = All Day
Data Periods Intersection Type Zone ID Zone Name
Zone Is Pass‐
Through Day Type Day Part
Average Daily Zone
Traffic (StL Volume)
Avg Trip
Length (mi)
Avg All Trip Length
(mi)
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 1 Existing Site no 0: All Days (M‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1401 6 6.1
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 1 Existing Site no 1: Weekday (M‐Th) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1339 5.7 5.8
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 1 Existing Site no 2: Weekend Day (Sa‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1446 6.4 6.5
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 2 Proxy Site no 0: All Days (M‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)243 10.7 10.8
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 2 Proxy Site no 1: Weekday (M‐Th) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)245 10.2 10.3
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip Start 2 Proxy Site no 2: Weekend Day (Sa‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)225 11.5 11.7
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 1 Existing Site no 0: All Days (M‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1386 7.3 7.5
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 1 Existing Site no 1: Weekday (M‐Th) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1331 7.4 7.5
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 1 Existing Site no 2: Weekend Day (Sa‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)1420 7.2 7.4
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 2 Proxy Site no 0: All Days (M‐Su) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)233 11.4 11.5
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 2 Proxy Site no 1: Weekday (M‐Th) 0: All Day (12am‐12am)243 10.9 11.1
Jun 01, 2022 ‐ May 31, 2023 Trip End 2 Proxy Site no 2: Weekend Day (Sa‐Su)0: All Day (12am‐12am)212 12.2 12.3