HomeMy WebLinkAbout2025-03-04; City Council; 08; Police Department UpdateCA Review JRT
Meeting Date: March 4, 2025
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Geoff Patnoe, City Manager
Staff Contact: Christie Calderwood, Chief of Police
christie.calderwood@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2216
Reid Shipley, Assistant Chief of Police
reid.shipley@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2257
Subject: Police Department Update
Districts: All
Recommended Action
Receive a report on the Police Department’s anticipated demands for service, challenges and
potential staffing needs over the next five years.
Executive Summary
The Carlsbad Police Department is committed to maintaining the high level of service expected
by people who live or do business in or visit Carlsbad while strategically meeting the growing
demands for service from the community and the requirements of state law.
The department’s leadership consistently assesses its daily operations, staffing, procedures and
resources, as well as ongoing crime trends and future community needs, to ensure it is doing all
it can to safeguard Carlsbad’s safety and well-being.
This assessment has identified several ongoing and future challenges in the city and in the law
enforcement landscape that are likely to impact the department. These include a growing
population, changes in housing types, recent changes in state law, and even technological
advances.
The overall workload demand on Police Department employees has exponentially increased
over the last few years and the department is working to manage the current workload, which
can result in low morale, fatigue, retention challenges, and difficulties compounded by the
nationwide staffing challenges affecting law enforcement agencies.
This report is intended to inform the City Council about these growing demands and challenges
and how the department proposes the city can best prepare itself to meet them.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 1 of 104
Explanation & Analysis
Increasing population
In addition to the 115,000 people who have made Carlsbad their home, the Police Department
is responsible for the safety and security of:
• About 63,000 people who work in the city but live elsewhere
• Almost 11,000 visitors or hotel guests each day, with more than 5,000 overnight visitors
per day
These figures are averages, they don’t show how much tourism increases the number of people
in Carlsbad in the summer months and holidays. Carlsbad beaches, restaurants, malls and
Legoland amusement park are just a few of the tourist attractions that drive this increase.
The San Diego Association of Governments, the planning agency for the San Diego region,
projects these numbers will all increase over the next seven years. The chart below shows the
number of people served by the police in 2022, applying a consistent 1.03% population growth
rate to all figures from 2022 through 2029.
2022 2029
SANDAG population estimates 115,585 119,072
Workers 60,000 61,788
Visitors / hotel guests 21,219 21,855
Total policed population 196,804 202,715
Population per officer* 1,491 1,536
Population per patrol officer* 3,393 3,495
*The population per officer and per patrol officer ratios are calculated based on full staffing
levels. The per officer ratio is determined using 132 sworn police officers, while the per
patrol officer ratio is based on 58 allocated patrol officers.
So, while Carlsbad has an approximate resident population of 115,000, the Police Department
effectively serves around 197,000 people each day. And according to the data from SANDAG,
the city’s population will be 3.8% larger in 2035 than it was in 2022, with its population peaking
in 2035.
Growth in housing units
Along with population growth, the city was mandated by state law to accommodate and plan
for a total of 3,873 new housing units by 2029.
Most of this anticipated housing will be multi-family projects, such as apartments and
condominiums, including high-density housing. Multi-family projects traditionally generate
more calls for service to the Police Department than neighborhoods of single-family homes.
Changing business types
The city’s evolving business landscape is also expected to increase demands on the department.
Carlsbad’s economy has evolved over the last five years, with increases in tourism and visitors,
and more people patronizing its retailers and restaurants. This is particularly relevant to the
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 2 of 104
Police Department because as service-based businesses often attract more patrons, demands
for police services also increase.
Crime trends and changing landscape
The city’s crime rate has decreased in recent years. In 2023, Carlsbad’s overall crime rate
decreased by 6%, including an 8% drop in both crimes against persons and crimes against
property. This aligns with the trend in the broader San Diego region, which saw a 5% overall
decline in crime.
Carlsbad’s overall crime rate decreased in mid-year 2024 by an additional 4%, which also aligns
with the county’s overall 4% decrease in crimes. The city had a 5% decrease in both crimes
against property and crimes against society,1 but a 5% increase in crimes against persons. The
crime rate in Carlsbad is significantly lower in all categories than the county’s average crimes
per capita of 41.16 crimes per 100,000 people. However, these crime rates do not reflect city
priorities related to quality of life issues and calls for service response times.2
Carlsbad Police officers were involved in three officer-involved shootings in a seven-month
period in 2023 and 2024. Two of the incidents involved subjects who were carrying ghost guns,
non-serialized and untraceable firearms that are purchased illegally, without a background
check. The third incident involved an officer being violently attacked from behind.
Calls for service
The Police Department is committed to maintaining an exceptional standard of service. It
operates under a "no-call-too-small" philosophy, ensuring every call for service receives a high-
quality response.
While crime statistics show a decrease in crime in Carlsbad, and the number of cases and
911 calls slightly declined in 2024, the calls for service to the department have remained
generally steady over the last five years, though the Police Department saw a 5.3% increase in
calls for service from 2022 to 2024.
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Dispatched calls 62,389 66,568 62,022 64,081 60,916
Officer-initiated calls 48,059 40,589 41,172 50,708 47,830
Total calls for service 110,448 107,157 103,194 114,789 108,746
Number of cases 8,222 8,704 8,348 8,389 7,900
911 calls 31,642 36,154 34,550 35,926 31,648
1 The relatively new category of crimes against society includes drug-related offenses and prostitution.
2 SANDAG’s 2023 Annual Crime Bulletin report used a different set of data than had been used in previous years,
including only those reported crimes that meet specific criteria. This means that some reported incidents in the
city may not be reflected in the final count. Additionally, the California Department of Justice has begun
deactivating and rejecting reports for over 70 criminal charges, such as Penal Code 488 – Petty Theft, many of
which are still actively used by the Police Department, as well as for prosecution by the District Attorney’s Office.
As a result of this, the crime statistics that are reported by the Department of Justice and SANDAG may be
underreporting actual cases until the Legislature deactivates these Penal Code charges. Despite this challenge, the
data SANDAG uses continues to be the most optimal method for collecting crime data and examining crime rates.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 3 of 104
Many calls for service in Carlsbad are specifically related to quality-of-life issues, which don’t
necessarily warrant a crime report or result in an arrest but can take up just as much of an
officer’s time and attention. To maximize department resources, the department enables
community members to file reports on less serious crimes online so that our Records Division
can process that would otherwise generate calls for service from officers.
Mental health calls
In recent years, there has been a shift in law enforcement’s role in mental health emergencies.
Officers are now expected to serve as the primary response when someone experiences a
mental health crisis, and to intervene on their behalf. Our officers are trained in de-escalation
techniques and can call on the expertise of Psychiatric Emergency Response Team members to
better address mental health issues.
While the volume of these calls has remained fairly consistent over the last five years,
responses to mental health emergencies have grown more compassionate, which requires
more time to be spent on each call for mental health services.
In 2020, the Police Department’s Policy regarding the Countywide Crisis Management
Philosophy and De-Escalation Policy went into effect, as detailed below. This change in
philosophy placed greater emphasis on pre-engagement considerations with a subject in crisis,
which requires additional time to call for service, as well as the need to deploy more officers
and equipment to ensure a higher probability of a peaceful outcome.
For example, from Jan. 1, 2024, to Dec. 9, 2024, we engaged with one resident 166 times,
spending a total of 84 hours and 27 minutes with them and had to detain the person twice for
being a danger to themselves or others.
Ratio of officers to residents
According to data from SANDAG, in fiscal year 2023-24, our region averaged 1.32 sworn officers
for every 1,000 residents, which is significantly lower than the national average of 2.4 sworn
officers for every 1,000 residents. As of fiscal year 2023-24, the Carlsbad Police Department had
1.14 sworn officers for every 1,000 residents, the fourth lowest ratio in the region.
Sources: SANDAG, San Diego County and cities’ authorized staffing
Region’s sworn officer-to-population ratios
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 4 of 104
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114 1.15 l.16
122127
■FY 20l8-l9
■FY2022-23
It should be noted that these numbers are all based on full staffing numbers, even though the
department’s staffing levels are continuously fluctuating due to people out on various types of
leave, due to injury, family leave, military leave, etc., as well as vacancies from retirements or
resignations.
The city budget is a crucial consideration when evaluating factors related to increasing staffing.
According to data from SANDAG, in fiscal year 2023-24, Carlsbad had the lowest General Fund
expenditures allocated to law enforcement each year at 21%. The regional average is 29% and
the highest allocation is the City of El Cajon at 47%. As of fiscal year 2024-25, Carlsbad is at 25%.
Response times
The Police Department monitors response times for what are considered Priority 1-4 calls to
use department resources effectively and efficiently, ensuring the fastest possible response to
service calls without compromising safety or thoroughness. Response times directly impact the
service level the Police Department provides to the community.
• Priority 1 calls involve serious crimes in progress or threats to life and are dispatched
immediately. The current national average for Priority 1 calls is six minutes.
• Priority 2 calls involve complaints about less serious crimes with no threat to life and are
dispatched as quickly as possible.
• Priority 3 calls involve minor crimes or requests for service that are not urgent and are
dispatched as quickly as possible, once higher priority calls are addressed.
• Priority 4 calls that involve minor requests for police services are dispatched when no
higher-priority calls are pending.
The department’s response times have increased over the last three years.
Response times by priority of call
2021 2022 2023 2024
Priority 1 calls 4:49 5:07 6:17 6:45
Priority 2 calls 9:17 10:54 14:00 17:45
Priority 3 calls 42:13 48:45 32:56 45:31
Priority 4 calls 25:45 28:59 29:24 38:47
(in minutes:seconds)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2021 2022 2023 2024
Priority 1 calls Priority 2 calls Priority 3 calls Priority 4 calls
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 5 of 104
-- --
The city’s Strategic Plan for 2023-2027 states that the city will maintain the following high levels
of service annually in support of the quality of life and safety:
Respond to approximately 100,000 police calls for service annually with a
response time for priority one calls that is lower than the national average of
six minutes.
The Police Department was unable to maintain a response time lower than the national
average of six minutes for Priority 1 calls in 2023 and 2024. There are many variables that factor
into response times, but one consistent factor is staffing; more officers, and experienced
officers, can respond to calls more swiftly.
The department has implemented significant measures to try to reduce response times at all
levels. This included a concerted effort to make an impact on Priority 3 calls in 2023, which was
temporarily successful but ultimately found to be unsustainable.
Impact of training new officers
The city hired 15 officers to fill existing vacancies in 2024. Each of those officers was required to
spend a certain time working alongside a field training officer, not only to learn about the
community, but also to be coached on how to meet the department’s standards in handling
calls, interacting with community members and the other aspects of patrolling the city. Having
new officers inevitably extends response times because trainees usually take longer to navigate
a call from beginning to end, as well as to properly document incidents, which creates time
when they’re not available to respond to other calls.
Time spent per call
Between 2019 and 2024, there has been a noticeable increase in the amount of time officers
and non-sworn personnel need to spend per service call across all priority levels.
Average time spent per call
Year All patrol Sworn Non-sworn
2019 31 30 37.53
2020 32 31 39.62
2021 32 31 50.04
2022 29 29 97.39
2023 32 30 47.89
2024 32 31 50.13
(In minutes:seconds)
Since 2019, the average time spent per call has increased from 30.67 to 31.69 minutes per call –
a 1.02 minute increase. When applied to the total number of calls for service in 2024, officers
are spending an additional 1,849 hours annually on these calls. Between 2022 to 2024, the
Police Department saw an average increase of 2.48 minutes per call, resulting in a total of
4,495 additional hours. The increased amount of time spent per call takes the officer away from
being able to engage in proactive police work.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 6 of 104
Several factors contributed to this increase:
• Changes in state law and requirements
• The demands of taking advantage of new technologies
• Changes in services from outside law enforcement partners
• Departmental obligations, such as training
• Increasing community requests
Legislative and policy impacts
De-escalation policies
Assembly Bill 392, adopted in 2019, amended Sections 196 and 835a of the California Penal
Code, adding the following language:
”… [I]t is the intent of the Legislature that peace officers use deadly force only
when necessary in defense of human life. In determining whether deadly force is
necessary, officers shall evaluate each situation in light of the particular
circumstances of each case, and shall use other available resources and
techniques if reasonably safe and feasible to an objectively reasonable officer.”
In the years that followed, law enforcement organizations, including the Carlsbad Police
Department, met with community members, activist groups, and other interested parties to
share expectations and community desires. The discussions led to a change in policing tactics
and strategies.
One major change was the Countywide Crisis Management Philosophy and De-Escalation Policy
adopted by the department in 2020. Recognizing the need for a unified approach, the
department spearheaded the development of this policy, which every law enforcement agency
in San Diego County now follows.
The policy is designed to ensure all agencies in the region respond to critical incidents
consistently and effectively and includes comprehensive guidance for de-escalating potentially
violent situations.
Building on this foundation, the department created an internal policy that not only aligned
with the county’s philosophy but also set a higher standard for crisis response and de-
escalation, reflecting the department’s deep commitment to protecting human life. The result
was Policy 303, a model framework for handling critical incidents. This policy ensures that,
whenever possible, officers work toward resolving situations safely while prioritizing the well-
being of the community, city personnel, and the involved parties.
Implementation of effective de-escalation and crisis management takes time and resources.
This shift in philosophy added a higher emphasis on the evaluation and preparation officers do
before engaging with a subject in crisis, or any potentially violent situation, which adds
additional time to calls for service and often requires more officers and equipment to ensure a
higher probability of a peaceful outcome. The department’s personnel are expected to employ
proper de-escalation principles and tactics with the understanding that other responses to non-
critical calls for service may be impacted.
As with many changes in policy or practice, there can be unintended consequences. Committing
more time and resources to deal with dynamic situations in a comprehensive way has put a
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 7 of 104
strain on some aspects of service. Most notably, fewer officers may be available, which can lead
to delayed responses, particularly for Priority 2, 3 and 4 calls.
Changes in state law
Racial and Identity Profiling Act
Under the state’s Racial and Identity Profiling Act, which became law in 2015, all California
law enforcement agencies are required to collect and report detailed information about
every person either detained or searched by police. Most agencies were required to begin
collecting their data by 2022, while the Carlsbad Police Department began in 2021. Adding
this new reporting requirement to every detention and search added to the time officers
spend on those calls, delaying them from being able to respond to other pending calls for
service.
Senate Bill 43
California Welfare and Institutions Code Section 5150 allows police officers to place
someone who is a danger to themselves or others in involuntary psychiatric detention of a
person. Senate Bill 43, which took effect Jan. 1, 2025, expanded the definition of “gravely
disabled” to include “severe substance abuse disorder.” The change in this definition,
combined with the opioid epidemic over recent years, is likely to increase how many people
the department will be required to detain under Section 5150.
Senate Bill 929 and Assembly Bill 118
Senate Bill 929 requires the California Department of Health Care Services to collect
expanded quarterly data on all mental health detentions to include in an annual report by
May 1 of each year. Under Assembly Bill 118, the County of San Diego Health and Human
Services Agency has requested police departments to collect and provide data to the
behavioral health director in the county. This means Records staff now need to provide a
separate data collection sheet to include the total number of 5150 detentions and
information about each detainee, including the detainee’s age, sex, and gender identity.
This law was enacted in 2022, with a staggered implementation. The County has requested
Carlsbad Police Department provide its first quarterly report by May 2025.
Senate Bills 16 and 1421
Senate Bill 16 and SB 1421 (both enacted in 2021) amended Penal Code Section 832.7 to
mandate the disclosure of certain police officer and departmental records. The expansion of
this law greatly increased the workload of the Department’s Professional Standards Bureau,
as well as the Records Division in both reporting and producing certain records.
Senate Bill 2
Senate Bill 2 (2021) focused on police accountability by increasing the categories of
personnel records that may be publicly disclosed. It established a decertification process for
law enforcement officers found guilty of misconduct, ensuring officers who engage in
serious misconduct cannot be rehired in other jurisdictions within the state. It aimed to
strengthen accountability and public trust in policing. This law has also greatly impacted the
workload of the Professional Standards Bureau.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 8 of 104
Assembly Bill 481
Assembly Bill 481 (2021) requires law enforcement agencies to obtain approval from their
governing bodies for the use of military equipment before the agencies can fund, acquire or
use military equipment as defined in the law. This law also requires the City Council to
review the city’s ordinance each year along with an annual military equipment report which
is prepared by the Police Department, also increasing the workload of the Professional
Standards Bureau and Administrative staff.
Senate Bill 899
Currently, only certain restraining orders require police to seize firearms. Senate Bill 899,
which goes into effect Jan. 1, 2026, will prohibit the subjects of additional types of
restraining orders from possessing, accessing or acquiring firearms, ammunition and body
armor. So essentially, these additional types of restraining orders may now mandate law
enforcement to collect all such prohibited items during the duration of the order. There are
many types of restraining orders, including those for civil harassment, elder abuse and
domestic violence, and these gun restrictions can last from one to five years. Enforcing this
law will place additional strain on the department’s evidence-storage capacity and require
more staff involvement to ensure that the department seizes these firearms and prohibited
items.
Public Records Act
The California Public Records Act is designed to ensure transparency and accountability in
government by granting the public access to records held by state and local government
agencies. Members of the public have the right to inspect or obtain copies of public records
maintained by state and local government agencies. The California Public Records Act in
2021 was expanded to include access to police records by allowing the public to obtain
information about sustained findings of officer misconduct.
The Police Department has seen a 36% increase in Public Records Act requests since 2021:
Year Requests
2021 74
2022 61
2023 92
2024 101
The Records staff, the Professional Standards Bureau and Administrative staff are all greatly
impacted by this law.
Technology advancements
The use of body worn cameras, license plate readers, theft trackers, and improvements in
commercially available surveillance systems (e.g., Ring cameras, CCTV, Find My Phone, Apple
AirTags, etc.) have improved the Police Department’s ability to respond to and resolve
otherwise challenging criminal cases. But while this technology is highly effective, it comes with
a tremendous amount of follow-up that did not exist in years past. These new technologies
required increased supervision of these programs, as well as training, transparency, and
auditing to ensure compliance with the law and department policies.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 9 of 104
Professional partnership impacts
• The county’s Vista Detention Facility is temporarily no longer accepting female
arrestees, as of September 2024. Officers must now transport female prisoners to the
Las Colinas Detention Facility in Santee. The average drive time is 400% greater. When
an officer transports a female arrestee, they may be out of service for two to three
hours or more, leaving their area of the city under the responsibility of another officer
who must cover two areas.
• Tri-City Hospital has shut down its full-service Crisis Stabilization Unit and is no longer
authorized to evaluate and treat individuals who may need involuntary psychiatric
hospitalization. If Exodus Recovery’s North Coastal Crisis Stabilization Unit in Oceanside
is overloaded, officers are now required to transport mental health detainees to the
County Mental Health facility in San Diego or another authorized facility in the South
County.
• Due to an increase in violent patients, the Scripps Hospital Group is now requiring all
law enforcement agencies to have a two-officer response when delivering or standing
by with an arrestee or patient, taking more officers out of the field when an arrestee is
taken to the hospital.
These procedural adjustments are still relatively new, so their full impact has yet to be seen.
Departmental obligations
Several changes in the above-mentioned laws have caused the Carlsbad Police Department to
increase the training requirements for all personnel. In addition to quarterly training on
perishable skills, officers are mandated to attend training in:
• The principles of de-escalation
• Defensive Tactics and the proper use of force to safely and effectively arrest and control
a suspect
• The firearms tactical knowledge and skills to prevail in a lethal force encounter
• Defensive driving and maneuvering and pursuit training
• Strategic communications to improve an officer’s ability to persuade a subject to
voluntarily comply with the officer’s commands
• The requirements for detentions within the police department and jails.
• How to integrate emergency medical personnel in a wide range of potential situations
and crises
• Securely using the California Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (This
training is required by state law to have access to the system’s sensitive information.)
The department requires each officer to take 52 hours of training every two years, 18 hours
more than state standards require. This training is essential to the success of our department
members and directly contributes to the Police Department’s track record of successful
resolution of critical incidents.
Community requests and special events
There is a growing need for increased police presence at various community events. The city’s
5-Year Strategic Plan includes the Police Department supporting annual special events. In 2024
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 10 of 104
alone, we have committed to the following city and city-sanctioned events, or have received
the following requests from various community groups:
• City events: These include the TGIF Concerts in the Park and the Citizen's Police
Academy, as well as the Police Department Citizen Academy
• City-sanctioned events: Almost 40 events, including the Carlsbad Marathon, Carlsbad
5000, Spring and Fall Street Faires, Art in the Village, Art Walk, Lancer Day Parade and
4th of July fireworks.
• Community requests: More than 30 events, including events at elementary schools and
senior facilities, homeowners association meetings, neighborhood watch meetings,
active shooter and workplace violence trainings, E-bike safety classes, and other
miscellaneous requests.
These events lead to an increased demand for overtime obligations outside of standard patrol
duties, often requiring officers to work mandatory overtime shifts to work the events. For
example, the Carlsbad Marathon requires 42 police personnel to staff the event, while each
Street Faire requires 31 police personnel. In 2024, the Police Department worked 1,729.5 hours
of overtime on city-sanctioned special events.
Department overtime
Department overtime can be costly for the city as well as taxing on staff. While employees
understand upon being hired that as emergency workers, overtime will be part of the job, we
have seen our overtime budget increase year over year, which can cause a burnout effect on
our employees, leading to retention issues.
FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24
Patrol overtime budget $827,124 $1,194,739 $1,281,224 $1,293,476 $1,201,000
Actual patrol overtime $999,278 $1,194,367 $1,358,993 $1,292,186 $1,185,164
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 11 of 104
Department’s current organization
Staffing challenges and current staffing levels
The Carlsbad Police Department has been chronically short-staffed – consistently operating
with fewer employees than needed to meet the demands of the department – for an extended
period of time due to retention issues and other employee leaves, such as injuries.
At any given time, between ten and 14 officers in the department’s Patrol Division of 58 cannot
be deployed because of mandatory training, court appearances, sick leave, on-duty injuries,
family and medical leave, bereavement leave, military leave, administrative leave, time off and
other reasons. The non-deployable personnel rates for the patrol division over the last two
years have fluctuated between 18% and 25% of the number of officers. In 2024, the average
non-deployable personnel rate for sworn staffing was 19%.
When deployable numbers fall below the minimum staffing policy, officers are required to
cover shifts, leading to overtime costs and officer fatigue.
In 2024, 33 Police Department employees were hired to replace vacancies, including 15 sworn
officers and 18 civilian personnel. Traditionally, the Police Department has employed tenured
personnel, which leads to experienced decision making in the field. With multiple retirements,
a significant influx of new officers have joined the department, necessitating additional training,
development, and supervision to ensure their performance aligns with community
132 sworn personnel, 55 non-sworn,
187 personnel total
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 12 of 104
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expectations. Approximately 50% of the patrol division has less than five years of policing
experience.
The Center for Public Safety Management, which conducted a staffing assessment in 2019
recommends the “rule of 60.” The “rule of 60” has two parts:
• The first states that 60% of the sworn officers in a department should be dedicated to
the patrol function. The Police Department is currently running at 48%, with 64 officers
out of 132 working in a patrol capacity.
• The second states that no more than 60% of a patrol officer’s time should be committed
to calls for service, allowing the officer to respond to management-directed operations
such as proactive enforcement, crime prevention, community policing and citizen safety
initiatives. Proactive policing is essential to our operations as it emphasizes crime
prevention over reactive responses. It also addresses the concerns of our community
members and the expectations of having an engaged, proactive police department.
Due to the current patrol staffing shortages, officers from specialized units are frequently used
to supplement patrol operations. This includes officers from the Traffic Division, Homeless
Outreach and Crime Suppression teams. However, reassigning these specialized units reduces
their overall effectiveness.
• Traffic Division: Fewer officers are available to address traffic complaints, leading to a
potential increase in traffic collisions due to reduced enforcement. Additionally, these
officers are often pulled away to assist with the planning and staffing of special events.
• Crime Suppression Team: The members of this team, which focuses on proactive
policing and locating individuals under investigation by detectives, are unable to
perform this critical work when reassigned to patrol.
It is important to emphasize that the department uses these units to temporarily support patrol
operations, not to permanently reassign officers from their specialized duties. To address patrol
staffing, special assignments have gone unfilled, degrading department effectiveness. Currently
positions in Investigations, Traffic, school resources officers and the Crime Suppression Team
are unfilled due to patrol staffing needs. These positions will remain unfilled until patrol staffing
meets acceptable levels.
Due to current staffing levels, the Police Department has had to withdraw from or decline
participation in several San Diego County task forces, including those focused on regional auto
theft, terrorism, internet crimes against children, human trafficking, drug trafficking and
computer and technology crimes. Participation in task forces allows collaboration on
investigations, especially those where the criminal activity exceeds the borders of Carlsbad,
often requiring state and federal resources to resolve. It also maintains strong partnerships
with our fellow agencies and helps combat the sort of region-wide crime that can target our
community.
While each task force conducts important regional investigations, the Police Department has
prioritized its investment in those that directly and significantly impact our community. The
department has maintained involvement in narcotics and gang task forces, with one detective
assigned to each.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 13 of 104
The San Diego Regional Public Safety Training Institute in Miramar is the police academy where
recruits for police agencies across the county undergo rigorous training to become police
officers. Agencies in the region are expected to assign an academy training officer to supervise,
train, mentor and guide recruits. Carlsbad has been out of compliance; the last time we
assigned an academy training officer was in 2013. The department intends to fulfill our
obligation to the academy in 2025 to ensure Carlsbad’s police recruits will remain eligible for
the academy.
The city’s 5-Year Strategic Plan states that the city will maintain the following high levels of
service annually in support of the quality of life and safety “complete investigations for violent
crimes, property crimes, fraud and financial crimes, auto theft, juvenile crime, elder abuse and
child abuse.”
Fiscal Analysis
There is no fiscal impact from receiving this report.
Next Steps
The Police Department will continue to work with the City Manager and the Finance
Department to present needs in the future budget processes.
The Police Department will keep assessing its services and staffing needs, submitting budget
requests as necessary.
Environmental Evaluation
This action does not require environmental review because it does not constitute a project
within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public
Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical
change or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.
Exhibits
1. San Diego Association of Governments report, Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego
Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY2022-23
2. San Diego Association of Governments report, What Will the Region Look like in 2050,
March 2024
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 14 of 104
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Public Safety
Allocations in the
San Diego Region:
Expenditures and
Staffing for FY 2022-23
May 2024
CJBULLETIN Research findings from
the Criminal Justice
Clearinghouse
Exhibit 1
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 15 of 104
S A NDA G
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 2
Introduction
This annual Criminal Justice (CJ) Bulletin is part of the “Crime in the San Diego Region” series
and focuses on regional public safety allocations over the past ten years. County and
municipal public safety staffing and expenditures for FY 2022–23 are compared to FY 2013-14
(ten years), FY 2018–19 (five years), and FY 2021–22 (one year).1 Actual expenditures, adjusted to
current dollars, are used for all years presented in this report to ensure comparability across
categories and jurisdictions.2 The methodology section at the end of this bulletin explains
how the data were compiled. Specifically, this bulletin describes:
•how dollars are spent in parts of the CJ system regionally over time;
•how jurisdictions have allocated dollars for law enforcement;
•how this information is related to the population served; and
•how staffing figures are related to expenditures.
Highlights
•The region’s public safety expenditures in FY 2022–23 were $2.72 billion, 2% lower
than the previous year and the third consecutive decline when adjusted for inflation.
This equates to $817 per resident.
•Almost half (49%) of the public safety dollars spent in FY 2022–23 (around $1.3 billion)
were allocated to law enforcement activities.
•Expenditures in FY 2022–23 were lower for all categories except prosecution and
public defense, compared to the prior year.
•Over one in every four (29%) general fund dollars was dedicated to law enforcement
by cities with individual police departments, ranging from 21% to 47%.
•Regionally, there were 1.32 sworn officers per 1,000 residents in FY 2022-23 (ranging
from 0.88 to 2.55), lower than the 2022 national figure (2.4).
•Almost all law enforcement agencies noted experiencing staffing-related challenges
and difficulties in FY 2022-23.
•Across the eleven law enforcement agencies, a total of $163.61 million was spent for
overtime expenses in FY 2022-23; about $65.12 million more than was budgeted.
1 It should be noted that the public health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic still had ongoing effects through FY 2022-23, affecting law enforcement efforts in many ways due to changes in crime trends and challenges with budgeting and staffing. Thus, any comparisons and analyses related to the years affected by the pandemic must
take into consideration its effects on annual expenditure data.
2 Actual expenditures are updated annually for prior years based on the current CPI and most recent agency data. Therefore, dollar amounts presented here may vary from those presented in prior reports. More detail regarding the adjustments made to the figures is provided in the methodology section.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 16 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 3
Public safety expenditures
In FY 2022–23, $2.72 billion were spent on local public safety efforts in the San Diego region.
When adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), these expenditures
represent a slight decrease of 2% from the previous year ($2.78 billion), and the third
consecutive decline (Figure 1 and Appendix Table 1). This one-year decrease was due in part to
lower operating expenditures, such as staffing and overhead costs. Conversely, the five-year
decrease was partially due to decreases in salaries and benefits and services and supplies.
Based on the 2022 population estimate for the San Diego region, the cost for public safety
per resident in FY 2022–23 was $817 (not shown).
Figure 1
Public safety spending in the San Diego Region FY 2013–14 through FY 2022–23
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
To supplement budgets, local public safety agencies rely on grants to fund operations and
special programs. Overall, 15 agencies (including all eleven law enforcement agencies, the
District Attorney, City Attorney, Probation, and Superior Court) reported spending a total of
$59.34 million in grant funds in FY 2022–23 (3% of total expenditures).3 Grant fund
expenditures ranged from <1% (Probation, Coronado Police Department, and San Diego
Police Department) to 10% (La Mesa Police Department) of actual expenditures (Appendix
Table 9).4
Distribution across categories
About half (49%) of the public safety dollars spent in FY 2022–23 was allocated to law
enforcement activities, while the other half was divided across six other categories, a
proportion that has been relatively stable over time (Table 1).5
3 The type of additional funding received from grants was at the discretion of the reporting agencies. There may be variability regarding what additional funding was or was not included.
4 Child Support Services did not receive expenditures from grant funding the previous year, and thus it was not
included in this comparison. 5 The “Other” category includes San Diego County’s Public Safety Executive Office, Child Support Services, Citizens’ Law Enforcement Review Board, and the City of Oceanside Harbor Police.
$2.54 $2.53
$2.60 $2.63
$2.71 $2.73
$2.86
$2.79 $2.78
$2.72
2013–2014 2014–2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023
Ex
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
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e
s
i
n
b
i
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i
o
n
s
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 17 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 4
Table 1
Allocation of public safety expenditures in FY 2022–23
Category Allocated expenditures
Law enforcement 49%
Corrections 20%
Court-related 11%
Prosecution 9%
Probation 5%
Public defense 4%
Other 2%
Total $2,717,678,005
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
Change across categories
In FY 2022–23, public safety spending increased in two categories (Prosecution and Public
Defense) by 1% and 8%, respectively, and decreased in the other five, compared to the prior
year. Decreases ranged from -2% (Courts and Corrections) to -6% (Probation) (Figure 2 and
Appendix Table 1). These changes across categories are explained in more detail in the
following sections.
Figure 2 Five- and one-year public safety expenditure changes
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
<-1%
-7%
21%
<1%<1%
-7%-10%
1%
-2%
8%
-3%-2%
-6%-3%
Prosecution Court-related Public
defense
Law
enforcement
Corrections Probation
field services
& admin
Other
Pe
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c
h
a
n
g
e
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x
p
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d
i
t
u
r
e
s
5-year change
1-year change
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 18 of 104
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■
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 5
Law enforcement
Just over $1.33 billion was spent on regional law enforcement activities in FY 2022-23
(Appendix Tables 1 and 3). Law enforcement expenditures decreased by 3% over the prior
year, which was the third consecutive decrease for this category (not shown). The difference
in population size served by the ten reporting agencies (Figure 3) is a likely factor
contributing to the substantial variation in annual expenditures across each of the
jurisdictions (excluding the Harbor Police),6 which ranged from $16.21 million in Coronado to
$553.87 million in the City of San Diego (Figure 4 and Appendix Table 3).
Across the eleven agencies (including Harbor Police), six agencies (Sheriff, Harbor, Chula
Vista, Coronado, Oceanside, and El Cajon) had increased spending over the past year (1% to
9%, respectively) (Figure 5 and Appendix Table 3). The other five agencies decreased their
spending, ranging from <-1% (Carlsbad) to -9% (National City). Increases in agency
expenditures were largely related to increases in staffing costs, either through rising salaries,
overtime, or increased retirement and/or health care benefits. Additionally, the resumption of
in-person events/activities that were postponed and/or paused due to COVID-19 (e.g., award
ceremonies) also contributed to increases. Decreases in agency expenditures were primarily
caused by difficulties in maintaining staffing levels, project cuts, and refining pension
contributions.
Figure 3
Population estimates by jurisdiction
in 2022
SOURCE: SANDAG Population and Housing
Estimates, 2022
6 Harbor Police is not shown in Figure 3 because there is no population base related to the area served by this agency.
Figure 4
Law enforcement expenditures by
agencies in FY 2022–23
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’
Expenditures
1,374,790
946,561
276,785
173,048
150,679
115,585
105,638
61,471
60,472
22,777
San Diego
Sheriff
Chula Vista
Oceanside
Escondido
Carlsbad
El Cajon
National City
La Mesa
Coronado
$553,873,072
$405,057,914
$68,966,301
$64,071,137
$48,967,491
$42,555,799
$41,785,385
$44,663,333
$24,472,327
$21,920,723
$16,205,854
San Diego
Sheriff
Oceanside
Chula Vista
Escondido
Carlsbad
Harbor
El Cajon
National City
La Mesa
Coronado
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 19 of 104
I
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Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 6
Figure 5
Five- and one-year law enforcement expenditure percent changes by agency
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
The proportion of FY 2022–23 general funds allocated to law enforcement for the nine
incorporated cities that maintain their own police department varied considerably across
jurisdictions, ranging from 21% in Carlsbad to 47% in El Cajon. The regional municipal average
for these nine jurisdictions was 29% (Figure 6).
Figure 6
Proportion of FY 2022–23 general funds allocated to law enforcement by
jurisdiction
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
1%
-2%
12%13%
-3%
-6%
-2%
-13%
5%
<-1%
-2%
5%
<-1%
3%3%
9%
-3%
2%
-3%
-9%
6%
-3%
-8%
1%
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
c
h
a
n
g
e
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x
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d
t
u
r
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s
5-year change 1-year change
21%22%
26%28%
34%37%37%39%
47%
Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado San Diego Oceanside La Mesa NationalCity Escondido El Cajon
29%
Regional
average
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 20 of 104
■ ■
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 7
In FY 2022–23, just over one-fifth (22%) of the County of San Diego’s total actual expenditures
were allocated for public safety. This proportion is not included in Figure 6 because it includes
functions other than law enforcement (e.g., services provided by prosecution agencies, Public
Defense, Probation, San Diego County Sheriff’s Department Detention Services and Court
Services Bureau, Public Safety Group Executive Office, Grand Jury, and Child Support
Services).
Per capita funding is an additional way to examine relative spending on law enforcement
across jurisdictions. In this regard, the per capita amount spent ranged from $231 per
resident in Chula Vista to $712 in Coronado, with a regionwide average of $401 (Appendix
Table 8 and Figure 7).
Figure 7
Law enforcement per capita spending across local agencies in FY 2022-23
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
Prosecution
This section describes spending for criminal prosecution in FY 2022–23 for two local public
agencies – the San Diego County District Attorney and the San Diego City Attorney’s Criminal
Division, both of which include victim services. Total spending for criminal prosecution in FY
2022–23 was $241.22 million, which included $216.07 million for the District Attorney’s Office
and $25.15 million for the City Attorney’s Criminal Division (Appendix Table 1). Prosecution
staffing included 1,026 staff positions from the District Attorney’s Office and 181 staff positions
from the City Attorney’s Office (Appendix Table 2). When adjusted for inflation, expenditures
over the previous year increased 2% for the District Attorney’s Office and <1% for the City
Attorney’s Office (Appendix Table 1).
$231
$325
$362 $368 $398 $399 $403 $423
$712
Chula Vista Escondido La Mesa Carlsbad National
City
Oceanside San Diego El Cajon Coronado
FY
2
0
2
2
–20
2
3
p
e
r
c
a
p
i
t
a
f
u
n
d
i
n
g
$401 Regional average
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 21 of 104
I
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 8
Salaries and benefits increased for the District and City
Attorney’s Office, due at least in part to the addition of
new staff and an increase in costs related to negotiated
labor agreements and required retirement contributions.
$241.22 million spent by
prosecution in FY 2022–23.
The increase from the prior
year was driven by new staff
and labor agreement changes.
Public defense
The Department of the Public Defender consists of four separate divisions: the Primary Public
Defender, the Alternate Public Defender, the Multiple Conflicts Office and the Office of
Assigned Counsel, all ethically walled to avoid conflicts. The Public Defender’s diverse staff
provides constitutionally required legal representation to indigent persons charged with a
crime, all persons at arraignment except those who have retained private counsel, and in
some civil cases such as mental health matters, civil contempt, probate conservatorships and
immigration law removal proceedings. The Public Defender is a California State Bar approved
provider of mandatory continuing legal education (MCLE) credits for attorneys throughout
the state.
Public defense spending in FY 2022–23 totaled $114.67 million (Appendix Table 1). Spending
for public defense (which includes 532 staff positions) increased 8% over the past year and
21% over the past five years (Figure 2 and Appendix Tables 1 and 2).
The changes in expenditures were associated with
personnel costs from the addition of 90 new staff
positions to manage growing case responsibilities and
post-conviction relief activities for the Public Defense
Pilot Program, Clerical Support, Trial and Investigative
Support, Fresh Start Program, Collaborative Courts,
Mental Health Unit, Indigent Defense, and Administrative
and Clerical Support. Increases in public defense staffing
costs were also due to negotiated labor agreements.
$114.67 million spent by public
defense in FY 2022–23.
An important driver of the
increase compared to prior
years was the added staffing
to address the growing
number of cases and newly
created units.
Court-related services
In FY 2022–23, court-related service expenditures totaled $285.55 million and included the
Superior Court, Sheriff’s Court Services Bureau, Grand Jury, and Pretrial Services (Appendix
Table 1). Additional information regarding these different functions is provided below.
• The Superior Court, one of the state’s 58 trial courts, handles all San Diego County judicial
matters related to felonies, misdemeanors, civil cases, small claims, traffic, property titles,
divorce, probate, conservatorship, mental health, and juvenile proceedings. Judges’
salaries and benefits are paid by the state and are not included in the Court's actual
expenditures presented in this bulletin.
• The Sheriff’s Court Services Bureau staff provides weapon screening and court facility
security around the County and executes, serves, and returns all writs, warrants, and other
processes (e.g., subpoenas, eviction notices, and restraining orders) issued by the Court.
• The Grand Jury is a group of 19 citizens who investigate civil matters, as well as issue
criminal indictments.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 22 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 9
• Pretrial Services staff provides the judiciary with information regarding offender risk,
which is used for custody release and bail decisions.7
Expenditures for the court-related services category
decreased by 2% in the past year, marked by less
expenditures by the Grand Jury (-8%), Sheriff’s Court
Services Bureau (-5%), and the Superior Courts (-2%)
(Appendix Table 1). These decreases are due to lower
contracted costs associated with information technology
projects and staff that performed Grand Jury
coordination functions. Lower Superior Court
expenditures could be explained by the fixed firmed
pricing on the Court's contracts.
$285.55 million spent by court-
related services in FY 2022–23.
The Grand Jury, Superior Court, and the Sheriff’s Court Services
spent less than the previous
year.
Probation field services and administration
Probation spent $144.12 million in FY 2022–23 for field
services and administration, a 6% decrease compared to
the previous year and a 7% decrease from five years prior
(Appendix Table 1). This decrease in expenditures is
partially due to the absence of a one-time hazard and
telework payment that was included in FY 2021-22.
Furthermore, probation experienced a notable 35%
reduction in departmental administrative expenditures
compared to the previous year.8
$144.12 million spent by
Probation in FY 2022-23.
The decrease in probation
expenditures is due to the
absence of a one-time hazard
and telework payment
included in the prior year.
Corrections facilities
The corrections category includes spending related to adult correctional institutions
operated by the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department, juvenile facilities managed by the
Probation Department, institutional services provided by Probation, and the Chula Vista City
Jail.9 A total of $536.17 million (Appendix Table 1) was spent on corrections in FY 2022–23. The
total expenditure for this category decreased by 2% over one year and increased by less than
1% compared to five years prior (Figure 2 and Appendix Table 1). All three facilities had
decreases compared to the prior year (-1%, -10%, -46%, respectively). Decreases in
expenditures were a result of expiring contracts, decreased costs in projects, and
reclassification of expenses.
7 For fiscal years prior to FY 2016–17, pretrial services were a Superior Court unit, however, due to insufficient funding in August 2015, a Pretrial unit was established at the Sheriff’s Department that includes staff from the Sheriff's Detentions Processing Division, Jail Population Management Unit, and Reentry Services Division.
8 While this decrease appears impactful and presumably indicates some sort of operational change, the decrease
actually stemmed from Probation reclassifying the type of expenditures that are considered eligible administrative
expenditures.
9 Chula Vista City Jail operations are sustained by revenues from U.S. Marshals Service (USMS). Through an Intergovernmental Agreement, USMS inmates are housed at the Chula Vista jail facility at a per diem rate.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 23 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 10
Across all three institutions, a total of 3,076 correctional
staff positions were funded in FY 2022-23, an increase
of 12 positions compared to the 3,064 positions funded in
FY 2021–22 (Appendix Table 2). This change was likely
driven by the slight increase of <1% in non-sworn
positions.
$536.17 million spent on
corrections in FY 2022–23.
The Sheriff’s Detention
Services, the Probation
Department, and Chula Vista
City Jail spent less than the
previous year.
Other agencies
In FY 2022–23, spending for “Other” areas related to public safety totaled $63.41 million
(Appendix Table 1). The two groups in this category include: (1) San Diego County Public
Safety Executive Office, which provides administrative oversight to nine County public safety
departments including Child Support Services, which establishes and enforces child support
orders and oversees and manages the Bureau of Public Assistance Investigations; and (2)
Oceanside Harbor Police, which oversees emergency response for maritime law enforcement
in Oceanside.
Expenditures for the “Other” category were 3% lower
compared to the previous year and 10% lower compared
to five years prior; however, there was considerable
variation across the groups. Child Support Services and
Oceanside Harbor Police have both experienced
decreases over the past five years, while the Public Safety
Executive Office experienced increases (Appendix Table
1). Child Support Services’ expenditures decreased due to
vacancy levels and underfilling of positions. Oceanside
Harbor Police’s decreases are due to the restructuring of
$63.41 million in expenditures
in FY 2022–23.
The Public Safety Executive
Office had a one-year
expenditure increase, while
Child Support Services and
Oceanside Harbor Police had
one-year decreases.
Oceanside Police’s responsibilities at the harbor. While Oceanside Police continue to provide land-based law enforcement at the harbor, beginning February 2023, firefighter and
lifeguard personnel now handle safety services and rescue operations as part of a new safety
plan. Lastly, the Public Safety Executive Office expenditure increases are attributed to the
addition of one staff to support programs and initiatives for justice integration, technology
costs and increases in salaries and benefits.
Staffing
In addition to expenditures, this bulletin describes staffing levels as another way to examine
resources dedicated to public safety. Staffing constitutes one aspect of total expenditures,
which among other factors (such as salaries, benefits, services, and supplies) may influence
expenditure changes. Therefore, staffing and spending may not always trend in the same
direction or to the same degree. Specifically, three of the seven categories (law enforcement,
probation, and corrections) had an inverse relationship between expenditures and staffing,
with the three categories experiencing decreases in expenditures, but increases in staffing.
Two out of seven categories (prosecution and public defense) experienced an increase in
both expenditure and staffing. The remaining two categories (court and other) experienced a
decrease in both expenditure and staffing (Table 2).
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 24 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 11
Table 2
One-year changes in expenditures and staffing by category in FY 2022–23
Category One-year change Expenditures One-year change Staffing
Law enforcement -3% 2%
Corrections facilities -2% <1%
Court-related -2% -1%
Prosecution 1% 2%
Probation (field services and administration) -6% 3%
Public defense 8% 20%
Other -3% -2%
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures and Authorized Staffing
Law enforcement sworn and non-sworn staff
Across the eleven agencies (including Harbor Police), there were 6,064 law enforcement-
funded staff positions in FY 2022–23 (Appendix Tables 2 and 6), including 4,376 sworn officers
and 1,688 non-sworn staff (Appendix Tables 2, 4, and 5). Of the eleven local law enforcement
agencies, eight had a one-year increase in total staffing ranging from 1% (Carlsbad,
Escondido, Sheriff, and the San Diego Police Department) to 11% (Oceanside), and three
experienced no changes (Coronado, La Mesa, and Harbor) (Appendix Table 6).
Sworn staff comprised 72% of all law enforcement staffing throughout the region in FY 2022–
23, ranging from 64% (Oceanside) to 82% (Harbor) (not shown). Of the eleven agencies, five saw
increases in their sworn staff numbers and six agencies saw no change (Appendix Table 4).
Non-sworn staff comprised 28% of all law enforcement staffing throughout the region in
FY 2022-23, ranging from 18% (Harbor) to 36% (Oceanside) (not shown). The notably high
proportion of non-sworn staff in Oceanside is due to the 2022 expansion of the Community
Service Officer Program, funded by Measure X. Out of the ten agencies with sufficient non-
sworn staffing for a robust comparison (e.g., greater than 30), eight saw their number of non-
sworn staff increase over the past fiscal year and two agencies experienced no changes
(Appendix Table 5).
The regional average of budgeted sworn officers per 1,000 residents in FY 2022–23 was 1.32.10
This figure has remained relatively consistent over the past five years (Figure 8 and Appendix
Table 7). The FY 2022–23 regional figure for San Diego County remains significantly lower
than the 2022 national average of 2.4 per 1,000 population (not shown).11
The number of budgeted sworn law enforcement officers per 1,000 population in FY 2022–23
varied across the jurisdictions (from 1.04 in Chula Vista to 2.02 in Coronado) (Figure 8 and
Appendix Table 7). Compared to FY 2021-22, the per capita rate (per 1,000 residents) of sworn
officers decreased for three agencies (Chula Vista, Coronado, and La Mesa), increased for five
(El Cajon, Escondido, National City, Oceanside, and the San Diego Police Department), and
stayed the same for two (Carlsbad and the Sheriff’s Department) (Appendix Table 7).
10 Harbor Police is not included in Figure 8 because there is no population base related to the area served by this
agency. However, they had 140 sworn officers in FY 2021-22, which informed the regionwide ratio.
11 Federal Bureau of Investigation (2022). Crime Data Explorer. Clarksburg, West Virginia.: U.S. Department of Justice. Available at: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/le/pe. Note: this is the most up to date data on the national average of sworn officers.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 25 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 12
Figure 8
Region’s sworn officer-to-population ratio in FY 2018–19 and FY 2022–23
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Authorized Staffing
Since the Great Recession in 2008, when budgets significantly decreased, this publication
has collected information on the number of frozen positions across the region. A frozen
position is one that has been budgeted for, but has not been filled, and may or may not be
filled in the future. This practice is used if there is a hiring freeze, or if a position is deliberately
left vacant to utilize savings from forgone salaries. Due to staffing vacancies caused by
residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the nationwide law enforcement staffing crisis,12
and increased retirements and resignations, two agencies reported having frozen positions in
FY 2022-23; Chula Vista Police Department reported 6 frozen sworn positions and the
Sheriff’s Department reported 14 sworn positions.
12 Young, R, Sayers, D., & Sanchez, R. (2022). ‘We need them desperately’: US police departments struggle with critical staffing shortages. CNN. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/us/police-staffing-shortages-recruitment/index.html
0.93 1.05 1.09 1.04 1.15 1.22 1.21 1.27
1.44 1.44
2.10
1.04 1.06 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.45 1.48
2.02
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FY 2018-19
FY 2022-23
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 26 of 104
•
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 13
Supplemental Questions to Public Safety Agencies in
FY 2022-23
Each year, this analysis incorporates several supplementary questions aimed at highlighting
specific events unique to the year under review to gauge the effects they had on the region’s
public safety agencies. In FY2022-23, agencies were specifically requested to offer additional
qualitative insights into their budget data to provide context on how they adjusted their
budgets and allocated resources to navigate challenges related to staffing and overtime
expenditures.
Challenges Related to Staffing Levels
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the workforce has seen severe disruptions. Across the
nation, the number of vacancies and unfilled positions has remained at an extremely high
rate, resulting in record breaking staffing shortages.13 The pandemic’s effects on staffing
levels have impacted all areas of employment, including San Diego County’s public safety
agencies.
In addition to the pandemic, anecdotal information pointed to additional challenges
affecting staffing among law enforcement agencies. Recent social movements related to the
reallocation of public safety funding and criminal justice reforms may have had effects on the
general public’s perception of law enforcement which could have affected the number of
new applicants interested in working in local law enforcement agencies. Additionally,
generational changes and the approach of younger generations to work and work-life
balance might be affecting staffing among law enforcement agencies, as younger
generations often seek greater flexibility, career advancement opportunities, and a
supportive workplace culture that may clash with the traditional hierarchical structures
within law enforcement organizations. As agencies grapple with these shifting dynamics,
adapting their strategies to attract and retain talent from diverse generational backgrounds
becomes imperative for ensuring the effectiveness and sustainability of law enforcement
efforts.
When asked whether they faced challenges filling or maintaining sworn staffing levels, all
law enforcement agencies, apart from Coronado, responded affirmatively. Law enforcement
agencies reported having difficulties related to higher-than-average attrition rates,
challenges in recruitment efforts, and increases in unfilled positions. To further understand
the impact that staffing challenges have had on law enforcement agencies’ operations and
expenditures, an additional question was asked to better understand how agencies have
handled these challenges. Law enforcement agency responses included exploring new
recruitment strategies (e.g., contracting public relations companies, producing social media
content), offering hiring incentives (i.e., lateral incentives to attract applicants with prior
experience), increasing recruitment frequency, and making salaries more competitive. Many
agencies also noted that these challenges have caused them to incur increased overtime
costs. The use of law enforcement’s overtime is further discussed below.
Outside of law enforcement agencies, staffing challenges were less pertinent in other public
safety agencies.
13 Ferguson, S. (2023). Understanding America’s Labor Shortage. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Available at: https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/understanding-americas-labor-shortage
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 27 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 14
Use of Overtime
Budgeting for law enforcement overtime is a standard practice to guarantee that
unexpected events can still be handled to ensure public safety without increasing the
number of an agency’s sworn staff. Of the eleven law enforcement agencies in the region, all
but Coronado reported that their use of overtime had exceeded what they had budgeted in
FY 2022-23; however, the variation between budgeted amount and actual overtime across
the law enforcement agencies varied drastically, ranging from El Cajon’s $370,548 to the
Sheriff’s $44.3 million (Figure 9 and Appendix Table 10).14 The variation in actuals spent on
overtime is likely due to the different degree of challenges with higher-than-average attrition
and retirement rates, and a steadily decreasing candidate pool, as discussed previously.
Across the eleven agencies, a total of $98.49 million was budgeted for overtime expenses in
FY 2022-23 and $163.61 million was spent (not shown).
Figure 9
Percentage of variation between budgeted and actual overtime by law
enforcement agencies in FY 2022–23
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities’ Expenditures
14 Coronado is not included in Figure 9 because their actual use overtime did not exceed what they had originally
budgeted
22%27%28%
52%
72%74%77%87%91%
108%
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 28 of 104
-
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 15
Summary
As described in this annual CJ Bulletin, compared to the
prior year, regional public safety spending fell 2% in
FY 2022–23 to $2.72 billion, when adjusted for inflation. In
FY 2022–23, approximately $817 were expended for public
safety per person living in San Diego County.
The number of sworn law enforcement staff per
1,000 residents in FY 2022-23 (1.32) was consistent with
the prior year and remained considerably lower than the
national average (2.4). While the staffing rate has
remained relatively consistent over the years, many
law enforcement agencies noted experiencing
challenges related to filling and maintaining staffing
due to high attrition rates, recruitment challenges, and
increases in retirements.
If you are interested in learning
more about the data presented
here, please contact the
SANDAG Criminal Justice
Clearinghouse at
(619) 699–1900 or visit
SANDAG.org/CJ.
You can also access criminal
justice data through SANDAG’s
open data portal
(opendata.sandag.org).
Methodology
The methods used in the preparation of the data presented in this bulletin, as well as other
factors to consider when interpreting the information, are outlined below.
• All figures for all years, including FY
2022–23, are based on actual
expenditures rather than budgeted
figures, unless otherwise noted.
• Data presented in this bulletin include
figures for departments funded by the
County and municipal governments.
Other entities, such as state and federal
justice agencies (e.g., California Highway
Patrol, Department of Homeland Security),
are not included because they are not part
of the local decision-making process.
• Minor revisions in methodology,
regarding specific categories of
expenditures to be included or excluded,
may result in differences between the
current bulletin and earlier versions of
this report. Every year, each agency
revises data for one, five, and ten years
prior to the current fiscal year. SANDAG
updates the report with the revised
expenditures for those selected years
and maintains the same figures from the
previous report for the additional years
reported.
• To adjust for inflation, expenditures for
prior years have been adjusted to be
consistent with current dollars, based on
the CPI for the San Diego metro area,
published by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Prior to FY 2016-17, reports used
the annual CPI rate for the first half of
the year. To allow for the reporting of
actual expenditures rather than the
budgeted amount, the CPI used since
then is based on the average of the CPI
for the second half of one year (2022 for
this report) and the first half of the
following year (2023 for this report).
• While fire departments and emergency
medical services provide essential first-
responder services in cases of public
safety emergencies, their funding
traditionally has not been included in the
public safety figures compiled by
SANDAG because they are not directly
related to law enforcement and offender
accountability.
• Dollar amounts represent employee
salaries and benefits, plus department
services and supplies, unless noted
otherwise. Capital expenditures are not
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 29 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 16
included because these one-time costs
could artificially skew comparisons.
• Each staff year represents the equivalent
of one full-time position. Part-time staff
may be represented by decimal units.
Staffing numbers reflect all authorized
positions whether filled or vacant.
• Information is presented by fiscal year
(July 1 through June 30). Population data
are presented for calendar years (January
1 through December 31).
• For comparability across jurisdictions,
some line items have been included or
excluded as discussed in this bulletin.
Local departments have approved all
numbers presented in this bulletin prior
to publication.
• Law enforcement expenditures may vary
with respect to whether parking
enforcement, recruits, and animal
control are included. However, the data
presented in this bulletin are consistent:
parking enforcement and recruits are
included (except for the Sheriff’s
jurisdiction where parking enforcement
is provided and regulated by each city)
and costs for animal control are
excluded.
• As of FY 2011–12, facilities and
maintenance costs are excluded from all
agencies’ expenditures.
• There are nine incorporated cities in the
region that operate their own police
departments. The Sheriff’s Department
contracts to provide services to the
remaining nine incorporated cities and
the unincorporated areas of the county.
These groups and the Harbor Police
provided information regarding law
enforcement for this report.
• The San Diego County Sheriff’s
Department figures for law enforcement
do not include expenditures or staffing
for their detention facilities or court
services. However, it is important to note
that the Sheriff's Department provides
certain resources and services to the
entire San Diego region, including search
and rescue, emergency planning, aerial
services, crime lab, specialized response
(e.g., bomb, SWAT), and mutual aid
coordination.
• The Criminal Division of the San Diego
City Attorney’s Office prosecutes
misdemeanors for the cities of San
Diego, Poway, and the unincorporated
area of 4S Ranch.
• Adult correctional facilities include the
Central Jail, East Mesa, Rock Mountain,
George Bailey, Las Colinas, South Bay,
and Vista, all operated by the San Diego
County Sheriff’s Department, as well as
the Chula Vista operated Chula Vista City
Jail. Juvenile facilities operated by the
Probation Department include Youth
Transition Campus and East Mesa
Juvenile Detention Facility.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 30 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 17
Appendix Table 1
Criminal justice expenditures by category San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Category FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change 10-year Change 5-year Change 1-year
Law enforcement $1,214,642,578 $1,326,081,685 $1,373,605,744 $1,332,539,336 10% <1% -3%
Prosecution – Total $222,223,548 $241,359,053 $237,750,400 $241,218,473 9% <-1% 1%
District Attorney $200,922,630 $217,486,742 $212,635,590 $216,070,361 8% -1% 2%
City Attorney $21,300,918 $23,872,311 $25,114,810 $25,148,112 18% 5% <1%
Public defense $92,536,901 $95,041,108 $106,280,945 $114,673,345 24% 21% 8%
Court-related $303,574,984 $308,371,072 $291,166,814 $285,549,924 -6% -7% -2%
Superior Court $222,978,095 $215,349,215 $203,769,672 $200,044,730 -10% -7% -2%
Sheriff's Court Services Bureau $77,980,404 $92,416,313 $86,642,033 $82,478,684 6% -11% -5%
Grand Jury $685,510 $605,544 $496,287 $455,285 -34% -25% -8%
Pretrial Services* $1,930,975 $0 $258,822 $2,571,225 33% -- 893%
Probation $169,653,747 $155,581,745 $152,669,679 $144,116,125 -15% -7% -6%
Adult Field Services $93,380,241 $87,211,047 $101,008,527 $96,724,646 4% 11% -4%
Juvenile Field Services $56,493,174 $41,951,446 $47,037,027 $44,407,063 -21% 6% -6%
Department Administration $19,780,332 $26,419,252 $4,624,125 $2,984,416 -85% -89% -35%
Corrections facilities $470,946,730 $534,597,455 $549,680,896 $536,169,135 14% <1% -2%
Probation Institutional
Services $83,321,918 $84,149,792 $66,654,004 $60,055,899 -28% -29% -10%
Sheriff Detention Services $385,202,549 $448,274,001 $480,673,699 $474,835,029 23% 6% -1%
Chula Vista City Jail $2,422,263 $2,173,662 $2,353,193 $1,278,207 -47% -41% -46%
Other $67,799,609 $70,472,981 $65,377,829 $63,411,667 -6% -10% -3%
Public Safety Executive Office $4,239,825 $5,265,007 $6,551,565 $6,841,811 61% 30% 4%
Child Support Services $61,055,651 $62,532,184 $56,266,975 $55,178,825 -10% -12% -2%
Oceanside Harbor Police $2,504,133 $2,675,790 $2,559,289 $1,391,031 -44% -48% -46%
Total $2,541,378,097 $2,731,505,099 $2,776,532,307 $2,717,678,005 7% -1% -2%
* The large increase in expenditures in Pretrial Services is due to more funding via the 2021-2022 Budget Act in
Senate Bill 129 that created the Pretrial Supervised Own Recognizance (SOR) Monitoring and Community Support
Services.
NOTES: All expenditures are based on salaries and benefits plus services and supplies, except Superior Court, which
is based on all operational and support expenditures excluding capital outlay and security. Salaries for the Superior
Court judges are not included because they are paid directly by the state. The Law enforcement category includes
parking enforcement for all agencies except the Sheriff’s Department. To reduce the impact of inflation on
comparisons over time, data have been adjusted to be consistent with current dollars now based upon the average
of the 2022 Second Half and 2023 First Half CPI for the San Diego metro area, as described in the methodology
section of the report.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Actual Expenditures
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 31 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 18
Appendix Table 2
Criminal justice staffing by category San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Category FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Law enforcement - Total 5,607.00 5,905.00 5,948.0 6,064.00 8% 3% 2%
Sworn 4,122.00 4,285.00 4,350.00 4,376.00 6% 2% 1%
Non-sworn 1,485.00 1,620.00 1,598.00 1,688.00 14% 4% 6%
Prosecution – Total 1,146.50 1,159.00 1,186.00 1,207.00 5% 4% 2%
District Attorney - Total 985.00 982.00 1,006.00 1,026.00 4% 5% 2%
Attorneys 318.00 332.00 341.00 346.00 9% 4% 2%
Investigators 173.00 134.00 135.00 135.00 -22% 1% 0%
Other 494.00 516.00 530.00 545.00 10% 6% 3%
City Attorney - Total 161.50 177.00 180.00 181.00 12% 2% 1%
Attorneys 60.25 73.00 75.00 75.00 25% 3% 0%
Investigators 9.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 -- -- --
Other 92.25 90.00 91.00 93.00 1% 3% 2%
Public defense - Total 357.00 388.00 442.00 532.00 49% 37% 20%
Attorneys 221.00 234.00 254.00 278.00 26% 19% 9%
Investigators 48.00 53.00 71.00 84.00 75% 59% 18%
Other 88.00 101.00 117.00 170.00 93% 68% 45%
Court-related - Total 1,693.00 1,688.00 1,583.00 1,572.00 -7% -7% -1%
Commissioners/referees 24.00 20.00 16.00 16.00 -- -- --
Other 1,230.00 1,204.00 1,145.00 1,133.00 -8% -6% -1%
Sheriff's Court Services Bureau 419.00 464.00 421.00 423.00 1% -9% 1%
Grand Jury 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- -- --
Pretrial services 19.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 -- -- --
Probation - Total 846.00 657.00 633.00 649.00 -23% -1% 3%
Probation Officers 607.00 441.00 426.00 425.00 -30% -4% <-1%
Other 239.00 216.00 207.00 224.00 -6% 4% 8%
Corrections facilities - Total 2,767.00 2,815.00 3,064.00 3,076.00 11% 9% <1%
Sheriff Sworn 1,250.00 1,269.00 1,396.00 1,396.00 12% 10% 0%
Probation Officers 455.00 407.00 338.00 342.00 -25% -16% 1%
Chula Vista City Jail Sworn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- -- --
Non-sworn corrections 1,062.00 1,139.00 1,330.00 1,338.00 26% 18% 1%
Other - Total 491.00 535.00 484.00 475.00 -3% -11% -2%
Public Safety Executive Office 11.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 -- -- --
Child Support Services 471.00 512.00 461.00 461.00 -2% -10% 0%
Citizens' Law Enforcement Review Board -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Oceanside Harbor Police 9.00 9.00 9.00 0.00 -- -- --
Total 12,908 13,147 13,340 13,575 5% 3% 2%
NOTES: All staffing numbers include positions authorized (budgeted) to be filled. Percent changes are not
presented for comparison numbers equaling 30 or less. The Law Enforcement category includes parking
enforcement for all agencies except Sheriff. Non-Sworn Corrections includes non-sworn staff who work in
corrections facilities run by the Sheriff's and Probation Departments and Chula Vista Jail.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Authorized Staffing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 32 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 19
Appendix Table 3
Law enforcement agency expenditures by jurisdiction San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad $36,979,860 $42,196,347 $42,609,551 $42,555,799 15% 1% <-1%
Chula Vista $56,779,019 $65,657,053 $62,214,756 $64,071,137 13% -2% 3%
Coronado $12,752,887 $14,532,464 $15,753,232 $16,205,854 27% 12% 3%
El Cajon $33,885,775 $39,371,587 $40,877,451 $44,663,333 32% 13% 9%
Escondido $46,890,228 $50,641,715 $50,487,757 $48,967,491 4% -3% -3%
La Mesa $19,409,908 $22,390,307 $22,653,603 $21,920,723 13% -2% -3%
National City $22,736,177 $28,090,852 $26,838,320 $24,472,327 8% -13% -9%
Oceanside $61,694,028 $65,807,288 $65,361,142 $68,966,301 12% 5% 6%
San Diego $527,933,174 $565,869,739 $603,620,769 $553,873,072 5% -2% -8%
Sheriff - Total $356,267,048 $387,046,223 $402,164,645 $405,057,914 14% 5% 1%
Del Mar $2,454,616 $2,741,091 $2,676,903 $2,560,787 4% -7% -4%
Encinitas $15,675,767 $17,534,001 $17,785,501 $17,154,927 9% -2% -4%
Imperial Beach $7,747,759 $8,466,028 $8,428,078 $8,181,959 6% -3% -3%
Lemon Grove $6,113,461 $6,848,327 $6,750,104 $6,678,907 9% -2% -1%
Poway $13,007,074 $14,282,661 $14,440,366 $14,047,870 8% -2% -3%
San Marcos $20,049,530 $22,546,980 $23,324,936 $22,350,095 11% -1% -4%
Santee $16,079,297 $16,833,170 $17,081,755 $16,250,452 1% -3% -5%
Solana Beach $4,390,297 $4,880,647 $4,953,566 $4,800,167 9% -2% -3%
Vista $24,042,675 $26,515,419 $27,082,089 $26,210,501 9% -1% -3%
Harbor Police $39,314,474 $44,478,110 $41,024,518 $41,785,385 6% -6% 2%
Total $1,214,642,578 $1,326,081,685 $1,373,605,744 $1,332,539,336 10% <1% -3%
NOTES: All expenditures are based on salaries and benefits, plus services and supplies. To reduce the impact of inflation
on comparisons over time, data have been adjusted to be consistent with current dollars now based upon the average of
the 2022 Second Half and 2023 First Half CPI for the San Diego metro area, as described in the methodology section of
the report. In order to increase comparability, parking enforcement is included in the expenditures for all agencies, except
Sheriff total and contract cities (i.e., Del Mar, Encinitas, Imperial Beach, Lemon Grove, Poway, San Marcos, Santee, Solana
Beach, and Vista), regardless of whether that agency usually includes parking enforcement in their expenditures. Data for
the Sheriff's contract cities were obtained from the Sheriff's Department and include only Sheriff contract amounts. The
Sheriff's total includes actual expenditures for the contract cities and unincorporated areas, as well as for services, such as
search and rescue, which are provided to the entire region, as described in the methodology.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Actual Expenditures
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 33 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 20
Appendix Table 4
Sworn law enforcement agency personnel by jurisdiction San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad 114.00 119.00 132.00 132.00 16% 11% 0%
Chula Vista* 237.00 249.00 287.00 289.00 22% 16% 1%
Coronado 44.00 45.00 46.00 46.00 5% 2% 0%
El Cajon 122.00 126.00 126.00 136.00 11% 8% 8%
Escondido 168.00 159.00 159.00 159.00 -5% 0% 0%
La Mesa 68.00 69.00 70.00 70.00 3% 1% 0%
National City 84.00 90.00 86.00 89.00 6% -1% 3%
Oceanside 202.00 216.00 217.00 219.00 8% 1% 1%
San Diego 1,978.00 2,043.00 2,036.00 2,036.00 3% <-1% 0%
Sheriff - Total 980.00 1,029.00 1,051.00 1,060.00 8% 3% 1%
Del Mar 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 -- -- --
Encinitas 60.00 61.00 61.00 61.00 2% 0% 0%
Imperial Beach 28.00 28.00 27.00 28.00 -- -- --
Lemon Grove 24.00 24.00 23.00 24.00 -- -- --
Poway 50.00 49.00 51.00 51.00 2% 4% 0%
San Marcos 79.00 79.00 82.00 82.00 4% 4% 0%
Santee 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 0% 0% 0%
Solana Beach 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 -- -- --
Vista 93.00 93.00 93.00 96.00 3% 3% 3%
Harbor Police 125.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 12% 0% 0%
Total 4,122.00 4,285.00 4,350.00 4,376.00 6% 2% 1%
*Chula Vista’s sworn officer total includes six frozen positions. A frozen position is one that has been budgeted for,
but has not been filled, and may be filled in the future. This status is used if there is a hiring freeze, or if a position is
deliberately left vacant to utilize salary savings and indicates that an agency is operating without all necessary
sworn officers.
NOTES All staffing numbers reflect positions authorized (budgeted) to be filled. Percent changes are not presented
for comparison numbers equaling 30 or less.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Authorized Staffing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 34 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 21
Appendix Table 5
Non-sworn law enforcement agency personnel by jurisdiction San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad 48.00 54.00 54.00 55.00 15% 2% 2%
Chula Vista 82.00 91.00 111.00 121.00 48% 33% 9%
Coronado 20.00 24.00 25.00 25.00 -- -- --
El Cajon 67.00 63.00 62.00 63.00 -6% 0% 2%
Escondido 59.00 58.00 57.00 59.00 0% 2% 4%
La Mesa 30.00 30.00 31.00 31.00 -- -- 0%
National City 38.00 39.00 37.00 39.00 3% 0% 5%
Oceanside 81.00 97.00 92.00 124.00 53% 28% 35%
San Diego 512.00 567.00 548.00 578.00 13% 2% 5%
Sheriff - Total 519.00 560.00 550.00 562.00 8% <1% 2%
Del Mar 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 -- -- --
Encinitas 23.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 -- -- --
Imperial Beach 15.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 -- -- --
Lemon Grove 9.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 -- -- --
Poway 18.00 17.00 16.00 16.00 -- -- --
San Marcos 25.00 23.00 24.00 24.00 -- -- --
Santee 22.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 -- -- --
Solana Beach 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 -- -- --
Vista 36.00 33.00 34.00 34.00 -6% 3% 0%
Harbor Police 29.00 37.00 31.00 31.00 -- -16% 0%
Total 1,485.00 1,620.00 1,598.00 1,688.00 14% 4% 6%
NOTES: All staffing numbers reflect positions authorized (budgeted) to be filled. Percent changes are not presented
for comparison numbers equaling 30 or less. In order to increase comparability, parking enforcement personnel are
included for all agencies, except Sheriff, regardless of whether that agency usually includes parking enforcement in
their budget. For Escondido, non-sworn staff are based on full-time positions only.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Authorized Staffing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 35 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 22
Appendix Table 6
Total law enforcement agency personnel by jurisdiction San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad 162.00 173.00 186.00 187.00 15% 8% 1%
Chula Vista* 319.00 340.00 398.00 410.00 29% 21% 3%
Coronado 64.00 69.00 71.00 71.00 11% 3% 0%
El Cajon 189.00 189.00 188.00 199.00 5% 5% 6%
Escondido 227.00 217.00 216.00 218.00 -4% <1% 1%
La Mesa 98.00 99.00 101.00 101.00 3% 2% 0%
National City 122.00 129.00 123.00 128.00 5% -1% 4%
Oceanside 283.00 313.00 309.00 343.00 21% 10% 11%
San Diego 2,490.00 2,610.00 2,584.00 2,614.00 5% <1% 1%
Sheriff - Total 1,499.00 1,589.00 1,601.00 1,622.00 8% 2% 1%
Del Mar 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 -- -- --
Encinitas 83.00 83.00 83.00 83.00 0% 0% 0%
Imperial Beach 43.00 40.00 39.00 40.00 -7% 0% 3%
Lemon Grove 33.00 35.00 33.00 34.00 3% -3% 3%
Poway 68.00 66.00 67.00 67.00 -1% 2% 0%
San Marcos 104.00 102.00 106.00 106.00 2% 4% 0%
Santee 82.00 79.00 79.00 79.00 -4% 0% 0%
Solana Beach 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 -- -- --
Vista 129.00 126.00 127.00 130.00 1% 3% 2%
Harbor Police 154.00 177.00 171.00 171.00 11% -3% 0%
Total 5,607.00 5,905.00 5,948.00 6,064.00 8% 3% 2%
*Chula Vista’s sworn officer total includes six frozen positions. A frozen position is one that has been budgeted for,
but has not been filled, and may be filled in the future. This status is used if there is a hiring freeze, or if a position is
deliberately left vacant to utilize salary savings and indicates that an agency is operating without all necessary
sworn officers.
NOTES: All staffing numbers reflect positions authorized (budgeted) to be filled. In order to increase comparability,
parking enforcement personnel are included for all agencies, except Sheriff, regardless of whether that agency
usually includes parking enforcement in their budget.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Authorized Staffing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 36 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 23
Appendix Table 7
Sworn officers per 1,000 population by jurisdiction San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad 1.04 1.04 1.14 1.14 10% 10% 0%
Chula Vista 0.92 0.93 1.05 1.04 13% 12% -1%
Coronado 1.88 2.10 2.06 2.02 7% -4% -2%
El Cajon 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.29 8% 7% 6%
Escondido 1.13 1.05 1.05 1.06 -6% 1% 1%
La Mesa 1.15 1.15 1.17 1.16 1% 1% -1%
National City 1.40 1.44 1.37 1.45 4% 1% 6%
Oceanside 1.17 1.22 1.23 1.27 9% 4% 3%
San Diego 1.47 1.44 1.44 1.48 1% 3% 3%
Sheriff - Total 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.12 6% 3% 0%
Del Mar 2.36 2.33 2.35 2.55 8% 9% 9%
Encinitas 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1% 1% 1%
Imperial Beach 1.03 1.01 0.97 1.07 4% 6% 10%
Lemon Grove 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.88 -5% -2% 1%
Poway 1.02 0.99 1.04 1.05 3% 6% 1%
San Marcos 0.90 0.83 0.85 0.88 -2% 6% 4%
Santee 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.02 -6% -4% -4%
Solana Beach 1.27 1.23 1.23 1.33 5% 8% 8%
Vista 0.96 0.91 0.90 0.96 0% 5% 7%
Total 1.27 1.27 1.30 1.32 4% 4% 2%
NOTES: All staffing numbers reflect positions authorized (budgeted) to be filled. Harbor Police is not included in the
Table because there is no population base related to the area served by this agency; however, they had 140 sworn
officers in FY 2022-23 that informed the regionwide ratio.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Authorized Staffing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 37 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 24
Appendix Table 8
Law enforcement expenditures per capita San Diego region, FY 2013-14, FY 2018-19, FY 2021-22, and FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction FY 2013-14 FY 2018-19 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Change
10-year
Change
5-year
Change
1-year
Carlsbad $336.62 $370.16 $368.91 $368.18 9% -1% <-1%
Chula Vista $221.43 $244.45 $226.69 $231.48 5% -5% 2%
Coronado $544.81 $678.58 $704.62 $711.50 31% 5% 1%
El Cajon $331.54 $378.74 $395.93 $422.80 28% 12% 7%
Escondido $314.87 $335.22 $489.02 $324.98 3% -3% -34%
La Mesa $329.17 $372.82 $380.23 $362.49 10% -3% -5%
National City $379.44 $448.21 $427.71 $398.11 5% -11% -7%
Oceanside $356.32 $372.70 $369.79 $398.54 12% 7% 8%
San Diego $391.98 $399.36 $427.79 $402.88 3% 1% -6%
Sheriff - Total $387.15 $409.21 $428.72 $427.93 11% 5% <-1%
Del Mar $578.51 $639.10 $628.68 $651.77 13% 2% 4%
Encinitas $256.43 $281.02 $285.53 $278.87 9% -1% -2%
Imperial Beach $285.54 $306.75 $303.45 $311.78 9% 2% 3%
Lemon Grove $236.54 $257.70 $256.22 $245.17 4% -5% -4%
Poway $265.03 $288.43 $295.09 $288.11 9% <-1% -2%
San Marcos $227.56 $237.26 $242.21 $238.82 5% 1% -1%
Santee $289.23 $298.20 $300.74 $275.36 -5% -8% -8%
Solana Beach $327.17 $351.99 $358.25 $374.66 15% 6% 5%
Vista $247.84 $258.69 $262.25 $261.34 5% 1% <-1%
Total $375 $394 $409 $401 7% 2% -2%
NOTES: All expenditures are based on salaries and benefits, as well as services and supplies. To reduce the impact
of inflation on comparisons over time, data have been adjusted to be consistent with current dollars based upon
the average of the 2022 Second Half and 2023 First Half CPI for the San Diego metro area as described in the
methodology section of the report. In order to increase comparability, parking enforcement is included in the
expenditures for all agencies, except Sheriff total and contract cities (i.e., Del Mar, Encinitas, Imperial Beach, Lemon
Grove, Poway, San Marcos, Santee, Solana Beach, and Vista), regardless of whether that agency usually includes
parking enforcement in their budget. Sheriff total and contract cities do not include Court or Detention Services, but
the total does include services provided to the entire region, as described in the methodology.
SOURCES: SANDAG; San Diego County and Cities' Actual Expenditures
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 38 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 25
Appendix Table 9
Percentage of public safety expenditures from grant funds San Diego region, FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction
Expenditures
from grant
funding
Total expenditures % of expenditures from grants
Carlsbad $481,729 $42,555,799 1%
Chula Vista $873,988 $64,071,137 1%
Coronado $63,686 $16,205,854 <1%
El Cajon $801,217 $44,663,333 2%
Escondido $1,568,170 $48,967,491 3%
Harbor $447,639 $41,785,385 1%
La Mesa $2,254,067 $21,920,723 10%
National City $342,601 $24,472,327 1%
Oceanside $2,248,871 $68,966,301 3%
San Diego $2,223,306 $553,873,072 <1%
Sheriff $28,746,483 $405,057,914 7%
District Attorney $16,578,767 $216,070,361 8%
City Attorney $559,792 $25,148,112 2%
Superior Court $2,032,769 $205,656,373 1%
Probation $404,610 $204,172,024 <1%
Total $59,627,695 $1,983,586,206 3%
NOTES: Agencies reporting no grant funds used for FY 2022-23 expenditures are not included. The Sheriff’s
Department’s grant total includes expenditures in Detention Services and Law Enforcement.
SOURCE: SANDAG; San Diego Cities and County Expenditures
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 39 of 104
Public Safety Allocations in the San Diego Region: Expenditures and Staffing for FY 2022–23 26
Appendix Table 10
Law enforcement agencies' variation between budgeted and actual overtime San Diego region, FY 2022-23
Jurisdiction Budgeted Actual Variance
Carlsbad $2,535,186 $3,240,021 -$704,835
Chula Vista $2,979,964 $5,288,670 -$2,308,706
Coronado $997,000 $996,168 $832
El Cajon $1,661,974 $2,032,522 -$370,548
Escondido $1,777,280 $3,324,928 -$1,547,648
Harbor Police $2,700,000 $4,100,000 -$1,400,000
La Mesa $1,059,000 $1,846,728 -$787,728
National City $931,351 $1,601,841 -$670,490
Oceanside $2,630,927 $5,015,883 -$2,384,956
San Diego $40,162,474 $50,818,779 -$10,656,305
Sheriff $41,057,635 $85,349,374 -$44,291,739
Total $98,492,791 $163,614,914 -$65,122,123
SOURCE: SANDAG; San Diego Cities and County Expenditures
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 40 of 104
1
560K
1.05M 1.37M
1.87M 2.50M
2.81M
3.10M
3.33M
3.35M
3.43M
3.40M
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
infobits Series 15 Forecast: What Will
the Region Look Like in 2050?
MARCH 2024
Every four years, the SANDAG Data Science team works with local jurisdictions, the California State Department of Finance,
demographic and economic experts, and other stakeholders to create a long-term forecast that predicts what the region will
look like in terms of population, housing units, and number of jobs. The draft Series 15 forecast, which has a launch year of 2022
and looks out to 2050, was recently completed and is being used in the modeling and planning for the 2025 Regional Plan to
identify how we will improve transportation, equity, and the environment for people in the greater San Diego area to meet our
regional goals. It is also used by local jurisdictions as part of their planning efforts and by other municipal departments and
agencies. This InfoBits highlights trends from this new forecast and discusses implications for the region. Series 15 forecast
data will also be available on SANDAG’s Open Data Portal in Spring 2024.
Did you know?
How Will the Number of People in the San Diego Region Change?
As Figures 1 and 2 show, the greatest population growth in
the San Diego region occurred between 1950 and 1990. Since
then, the population has continued to grow, but at a slower
rate, to approximately 3.33 million residents in 2020. Between
2020 and 2042, the region is expected to add almost 103,000
residents. After that, the population is expected to decrease
to around 3.40 million in 2050. In 2050, the population will be
three percent higher than in 2022, adding 1 new resident for
every 29 living here now. The forecasted trends are similar to
California state trends over the same period.
Figure 2: HISTORIC AND FORECASTED POPULATION IN THE
SAN DIEGO REGION
Figure 1: HISTORIC AND FORECASTED CHANGE IN THE
SAN DIEGO REGION POPULATION
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2010
2010-2030
2030-2050
144%
83%
24%
8%
2%
Our population forecast reflects assumptions regarding
births, deaths, and net migration. We are expecting to
see fewer births, more deaths, and an initial increase but
eventual decline of net migration, which translates to
smaller population growth in our future. By 2050, we are
expecting births to be lower than in 2022, reflecting in
part the aging of the population, as well as lower birth
rates among young individuals, which has been a trend
in recent years. For deaths, the model assumes there will
be improvements in infant mortality, but that rates will be
stable for other ages. With an aging population, there will
be more deaths in 2050 than in earlier years. Finally, net
migration reflects both domestic and foreign migration
into and out of the San Diego region. For the past two
decades, net domestic migration has been an outflow and
while international migration has typically been positive, it
has not been enough to offset the outflow in recent years.
Population Assumptions
Forecast
Historic
The region’s population in
2050 is expected to be only
3% higher than in 2022, with
an additional 1 resident for
every 29 we had in 2022.
Jurisdictions with the largest
growth in population and
housing between now and
2050 include San Diego,
Chula Vista, and San Marcos.
1 in 5 people will be
over the age of 65
in 2050, compared to
1 in 10 in 2000.
Exhibit 2
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 41 of 104
■
I
t t
• • •O• • •O• • •O
t
26%
19%
11%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2010 2020 2040 2050
0-17 18-24 25-64 65+
infobits
Series 15 Forecast: What Will
the Region Look Like in 2050?
MARCH 2024
2
Over the coming decades, the region’s population will become older
and more diverse ethnically. While one in ten of our residents was
over the age of 65 in 2000 (and the median age was 36), they will be
around one in five by 2050 (and the median age will be 42) (Figure 3).
This translates to several policy implications, from the need for services,
transportation choices, types of trips with fewer school-age children,
and also the type of housing that may be needed.
As Figure 4 shows, the region
will also continue to grow
more diverse over time, with
the greatest change in the
proportion of the population
that is Asian, which reflects
births, life expectancy, and
migration trends. The non-
Hispanic White population is
expected to shrink, in part due
to mortality associated with
the Baby Boom generation and
migration out of the region.
How Will the Characteristics of People in the San Diego Region Change?
Jurisdiction Population Change #Population Change %
Carlsbad 1,240 1.1%
Chula Vista 48,702 17.6%
Coronado -1,536 -6.9%
Del Mar -220 -5.6%
El Cajon -6,404 -6.1%
Encinitas -1,688 -2.7%
Escondido 448 0.3%
Imperial Beach -841 -3.2%
La Mesa -1,255 -2.1%
Lemon Grove -979 -3.6%
National City 174 0.3%
Oceanside 10,481 6.1%
Poway -228 -0.5%
San Diego 65,345 4.8%
San Marcos 16,423 17.5%
Santee 3,861 6.5%
Solana Beach -879 -6.9%
Vista -1,195 -1.2%
Unincorporated -18,505 -3.6%
Region 112,944 3.4%
Between 2022 and 2050, the population of eleven of the region’s
jurisdictions (including the unincorporated area) is expected to decline,
while eight jurisdictions are projected to grow. The jurisdictions with the
largest population growth include San Marcos (18%), Chula Vista (18%),
Santee (7%), Oceanside (6%), and the City of San Diego (5%). Because
San Diego is the largest city in the County, it will have the greatest
increase in population in terms of the number of new residents (Table 1).
Table 1: FORECASTED CHANGE IN POPULATION
BY JURISDICTION 2022-2050
Figure 4: ETHNIC BREAKDOWN OF THE SAN DIEGO REGION’S POPULATION, 2000-2050
NOTE: American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander races comprise less
than one percent of the population and are included in the Other category.
Figure 3: AGE BREAKDOWN OF THE SAN DIEGO REGION’S POPULATION, 2000-2050
55%
38%
9%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2010 2020 2040 2050
White Hispanic Asian Black Two or more Other
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 42 of 104
S A NDA G
■ ■ ■ ■
----------------------------------------------------------■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
infobits
3
How Will the Number of Housing Units in San Diego County Change?
Our housing model
starts with the existing
housing stock, excluding
group quarters, and
considers how many
are occupied, what
the vacancy rate is for
owned and rented
properties, how many
are unavailable because
they are vacation homes
or used for short term
rentals, and what the
household formation
rate is expected to be.
Housing Assumptions
The Series 15 forecast predicts both
how many households and housing
units there will be in the future.
Because the population is aging,
there will be an increased need for
housing since older individuals are
more likely to live in households with
fewer people than younger individuals.
This trend, combined with the fact
that population growth in the San
Diego region has historically exceeded
housing production, shows how even
with a slowing in population growth
(and eventual decline), there remains a
need for more housing production. The
Series 15 forecast expects the region to
add over 202,000 housing units from
2022 to 2050 (an increase of 16% from
the current housing stock) (Figure 5).
Table 2: FORECASTED CHANGE IN HOUSING
BY JURISDICTION 2022-2050
Figure 5: HISTORIC AND FORECASTED POPULATION AND HOUSING GROWTH IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION 2000-2050
As Table 2 shows, each of the jurisdictions in the region is expected to
add housing units, with those jurisdictions with the largest population
growth adding the greatest number of housing units, including San
Marcos (32%), Chula Vista (30%), Oceanside (21%), San Diego (19%), and
Santee (17%). Again, as the largest jurisdiction in the County, San Diego
is adding the greatest number of housing units (107,235), more than
four times more than Chula Vista (which is adding the second greatest
in terms of number).
Series 15 Forecast: What Will
the Region Look Like in 2050?
MARCH 2024
Forecast
Historic
Jurisdiction Housing Change #Housing Change %
Carlsbad 6,153 12.8%
Chula Vista 26,550 30.1%
Coronado 134 1.4%
Del Mar 111 4.2%
El Cajon 1,708 4.7%
Encinitas 2,118 7.9%
Escondido 6,216 12.6%
Imperial Beach 868 8.7%
La Mesa 1,938 7.4%
Lemon Grove 757 8.2%
National City 2,492 14.0%
Oceanside 13,954 20.6%
Poway 1,929 11.5%
San Diego 107,235 19.4%
San Marcos 10,444 32.3%
Santee 3,653 17.0%
Solana Beach 239 3.7%
Vista 3,436 10.2%
Unincorporated 12,884 7.2%
Region 202,819 16.4%
Population
Housing
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 43 of 104
S A NDA G
___ -0-----0-------__ ..o--------o
infobits
4
How Will the Number of Jobs in San Diego County Change?
While the Series 15 forecast projects that the number of people in the
region will eventually decrease, it also includes continued growth in
the number of jobs in the region. Continued job growth is also possible
for several reasons. A key factor is that the region’s prime working age
population (25 to 64) remains stable and changes the least of all age
groups (Figure 3). Additionally, the job forecast accounts for more
individuals working more than one job, gig work increasing, and the
region being able to attract workers from outside the county.
At the regional level, wage and salary jobs will increase eleven percent,
with all jurisdictions having some level of increase. The jurisdictions with
the largest increase include Imperial Beach (50%), whose general plan
allows for a significant amount of business development, Chula Vista
(38%), Oceanside (36%), and San Marcos (30%) (Table 3).
Table 3: FORECASTED CHANGE IN WAGE AND SALARY
JOBS BY JURISDICTION 2022-2050
For our job forecast, economic data are used with the population data
to forecast the number of jobs, rather than the number of employed
persons in the region. In Series 15, both wage and salary and non-wage
and salary workers, such as real estate agents and Uber/Lyft drivers, are
included. This change better accounts for the different types of jobs
in the region. Since 2010, non-wage and salary jobs in the region have
been growing twice as fast as wage and salary jobs.
Job Assumptions
Takeaways
»As we plan transportation options for the region, it is important to
consider the fluctuation we will see over time and include flexibility,
such as policies, programs, and projects that can be modified to best
meet the needs of the population.
»An aging population translates to a need for the region to meet
the needs of older individuals, at the same time the school-age
population will be decreasing.
»Even though population growth is slowing, there is pent up demand
for housing, and an older population means that the average
household size will be smaller, supporting continued emphasis on
housing production for residents.
About SANDAG InfoBits
SANDAG serves as the region’s
clearinghouse for information and data.
InfoBits publish timely, relevant information
to the public while providing context on
complex issues facing the region.
Series 15 Forecast: What Will
the Region Look Like in 2050?
MARCH 2024
Jurisdiction Jobs
Change #
Jobs
Change %
Carlsbad 5,994 7.6%
Chula Vista 28,473 38.1%
Coronado 240 0.8%
Del Mar 50 1.3%
El Cajon 4,474 10.2%
Encinitas 848 3.2%
Escondido 2,108 3.9%
Imperial Beach 2,532 49.9%
La Mesa 2,222 8.8%
Lemon Grove 1,431 18.0%
National City 3,196 8.2%
Oceanside 17,223 35.8%
Poway 281 0.8%
San Diego 67,305 7.7%
San Marcos 12,204 30.4%
Santee 1,466 8.2%
Solana Beach 131 1.4%
Vista 2,638 6.8%
Unincorporated 17,941 11.5%
Region 170,757 10.6%
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 44 of 104
S A NDA G
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March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 45 of 104
S A DA G
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 46 of 104
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 47 of 104
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 48 of 104
Draft Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
Presented to
Sustainable Communities Working Group
February 15, 2024
Agenda
| 2
Welcome & Introductions
Timeline and Collaborative Efforts
Terminology
Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
Next Steps
California Population
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 49 of 104
I • I • I • I • I • I • I SA NDA G
Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast Timeline
February- May
Draft region-level growth
forecast
March-
October
Jurisdictions review land use assumptions
December
Draft Series 15 Regional Growth
Forecast (baseline)
January
Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) land use pattern for the 2025
Regional Plan
Spring
Release Draft 2025
Regional Plan and
draft EIR
Fall
Anticipated
adoption of
Final 2025 RP and
certification of Final
EIR by Board
June
Begin region-levelgrowth forecast
development
20252024
| 3
2022
September
Begin sub-regional framework development
2023
| 4
Collaborative
Effort
42 one-on-one meetings to review land use inputs
Web maps, jurisdictional visual and tabular data reviews
Permitted projects included (using Annual Progress Reports)
Approximately 2.5 million records used as input
25 one-on-one reviews of draft forecast output
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 50 of 104
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
| 5
Terminology
Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast (RGF)
• Demographic and economic forecast used to inform the 2025 Regional Plan
• Series 15 is the latest series, replaces Series 14 used in the 2021 Regional Plan. Regional Growth Forecasts are refreshed on four-
year cycles incorporating latest inputs from jurisdictions, recent trends, and datasets.
• Pursuant to California Government Code 65584.01(a), Regional population growth is within +/-1.5% of most recent California
Department of Finance population projection (Vintage 2023; 2023.7.19)
• Base year = 2022; Horizon year = 2050*
Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS)
• Requires planning scenario that shows alignment of transportation, housing, and land use that supports meeting SANDAG’s
greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by California Air Resources Board (CARB) per SB375
• Separate process informed by Series 15 jobs, population, and housing
• Typically, SCS envisions majority of growth in existing urban and infill areas, co-located near transit investments, with the goal of
reducing vehicle miles traveled
• SCS land use scenario “shall consider existing residential zoning obligations to accommodate RHNA of the current housing element
planning period..”
Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA)
• Plan for addressing 8-year cycle of housing growth. Housing and Community Development (HCD) considers Department of Finance
data on future population and housing growth to determine regional housing need
• 6th Cycle Determination & Allocation: 2021-2029, 171,685 units
• 7th Cycle Determination & Allocation: Not started
* Countywide projection available through 2060
Statutory Requirement for SANDAG Regarding
California Department of Finance Projections
| 6
3,000,000
3,100,000
3,200,000
3,300,000
3,400,000
3,500,000
3,600,000
3,700,000
3,800,000
3,900,000
4,000,000 •Pursuant to California Government
Code 65584.01(a), SANDAG’s
Regional Growth Forecast for
population growth is required to be
within +/-1.5%of most
recent California Department of
Finance population projection at the
time the Forecast is prepared
•Series 14 Forecast was paired to an
earlier DOF projection (2020.1.10)
which was substantially higher than
the current DOF projection
(2023.7.29) that Series 15 is paired
with
•The 6th Cycle RHNA was paired to
an earlier DOF projection
(2019.3.27), which was even higher
DOF Projection for 6th Cycle RHNA
DOF Projection for Series 14 Forecast
DOF Projection for Series 15 Forecast
Source: California DOF, Demographic Research Unit. P-1A Total Population Projections, California (Releases: 2023.7.29; 2020.1.10; 2019.3.27)
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 51 of 104
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
Recent Department of Finance (DOF)
Population Estimates and Projections
for the State of California
Population Estimates for the State of California
As of July 1, 2023
Source: Press Release, December 19, 2023, California Department of Finance, “State Population of 39.11 Million in July Reflects Continuing Recovery From Covid-Era Decline.”
•39.11 million people statewide
•-0.1% decline from July 1, 2022 (-37,203)
•409,150 births + 301,881 deaths = natural
change of 107,269
•115,900 foreign in migration – 260,408
domestic net out migration = net migration
loss of 144,472
•Natural change – net out migration = loss of
37k persons
| 8
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 52 of 104
July 1, 2023 Populat10A Estimates
€aunty Percentage of California's Population
Percent of State
Population
O o.001oo.99
-l.00!02.99
-3.00to8.43
-25.12
MolPinPilredbV: cai1lorri!I Oepartmentol Fhlnce Oemographiclleseilrch\Jnit, ~ 2023
SA NDA G
Population Projections for the State of California
Nov-21
Sources:
2020-2050: California DOF, Demographic Research Unit. P-1A Total Population Projections, California, 2020-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 2023 Release). July 2023.
2010-2019: State of California, Department of Finance, E-2. California County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year — July 1, 2010–2021, December 2021.
2010, 37.4
2015, 38.9
2020, 39.5
2022, 39.0 2023, 39.0
2025,39.0
2030, 39.4
2035, 39.9
2040, 40.1 2045, 40.2
2050, 40.0
37
37.5
38
38.5
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
Mil
l
i
o
n
s
| 9
•Population has declined by
approximately 500k people
between 2020 and 2022
•Over the next twenty
years, population is
projected to increase by
approximately 1.2 million
to a peak of 40.2 million in
2044
•Population will then
decline from 2044 to 2050
by approximately 200k to
40 million
Components of Change for the State of California
Sources:
2020-2050: California DOF, Demographic Research Unit. Report P-CC: Projected Total Population and Components of Change, 2020-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 2023 Release). July 2023.
2010-2019: State of California, Department of Finance, E-2. California County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year — July 1, 2010–2021, December 2021.
2010,
-49,573
2015, -177,038
2020,-350,066
2025,
-38,858
2030, 59,004
2035, 67,058 2040, 62,199 2045, 59,274 2050, 56,958
2010,
271,985 2015, 228,933
2020,
69,548 2025,
82,885
2030,
42,753 2035,
-2,970 2040, -39,259 2045, -69,645 2050,
-92,747
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2029 Net Migration Estimate
Net Migration Projection
Natural Change Estimate
Natural Change Projection
| 10
•Natural change and net
migration estimates reached low
points in 2020
•Net migration is projected
to become positive in 2027
•In 2029, net migration (55,495)
is projected to exceed natural
change (52,184) and become
the driver of population for the
State into 2050
•Natural change (births – deaths)
is projected to become negative
by 2035 and continue
decreasing out to 2050
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 53 of 104
,
I I I
---□
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----
SA NDA G
Draft Series 15 Regional Growth
Forecast for the San Diego Region:
Regional and Subregional Results
What Will the Region Look Like in the Future?
Population peaks around
2042 and then decreases Population will be older More houses needed More jobs and people
working longer
| 12
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 54 of 104
SA NDA G
2022
1.16 million
20291.23 million
2035
1.28 million
2040
1.3 million
2050
1.33 million
2022
1.24 million
20291.32 million
2035
1.37 million
20401.41 million
20501.44 million
2022
3.29 million
2029
3.33 million
2035
3.40 million
2040 3.43 million 2050
3.40 million
2022
2.14 million
20292.18 million
2035
2.23 million
20402.29 million
2050
2.37 million
2022
1.61 million
20291.64 million
2035
1.68 million
2040
1.72 million
2050
1.78 million
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Draft Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
| 13
Housing Stock
Households
Forecast
Population
Jobs (Total)
Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s 2010 Annual Estimates
Jobs (Wage & Salary)
2010,
6,889
2015,
-7,099
2020,
-6,000
2025,700
2030,
7,400 2035,
6,000 2040,3,200 2045, 700 2050,-100
2010, 25,040 2015,
22,245
2020,12,450 2025,
9,204
2030,
5,841 2035,
2,089 2040,
-1,748 2045,-4,886 2050,
-7,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2030
San Diego Region:
Components of Population Change
Sources:
2020-2050: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast.
2010-2019: State of California, Department of Finance, E-2. California County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year — July 1, 2010–2021, December 2021.
| 14
•Both net migration and
natural change (births –
deaths) are down from
recent history
•Net migration, currently
negative, is projected to
become positive in 2025 but
flip back to negative by 2050
•By 2030, net migration
(7,400) is projected to
exceed natural change
(5,841)
•Natural change is projected
to become negative by 2040
Net Migration Estimate
Net Migration Projection
Natural Change Estimate
Natural Change Projection
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 55 of 104
--.--------------◄ •--------..-·•----------•---
1 ----•---~---------•----.---------------◄
-------------◄ ____ ..,. ------•--------------------=------.-------• -------s----• .---------------•--------♦------===------
~O.to
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
| 15
San Diego Region: Aging Population
Males Females
Source: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast
•Median age is projected to
increase from 36 to 42 by 2050
•All age groups 30-34 and below
are projected to decrease
•All age groups 35-39 and above
are projected to increase
•18k fewer children aged under 5
•180k more people aged 65 to 69
•77k more people aged 85+
San Diego Region:
Population by Key Age Groups in 2022 and 2050
Percentages represent that age group’s share of the total population in each year.| 16Source: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast
By 2050, the Region’s
population is projected to
include:
•94k fewer children
•34k fewer young adults
•Stable prime working age
population (3k fewer)
•244k more older adults 65+
0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000
15.8%
22.4%
10.1%
8.8%
22.4%
18.9%
51.7%
49.9%
Ages
65+
Ages
25-64
Ages
18-24
Ages
0-17
2022 2050
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 56 of 104
-2022
85+ c:::J 2050
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under s
100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000
SA NDA G
--SA NDA G
Subregional:
Population
Change,
2022-2050
| 17
Jurisdiction Population
Change #
Population
Change %
Carlsbad 1,232 1.1%
Chula Vista 48,716 17.6%
Coronado -1,536 -6.9%
Del Mar -220 -5.6%
El Cajon -6,413 -6.1%
Encinitas -1,689 -2.7%
Escondido 437 0.3%
Imperial Beach -821 -3.1%
La Mesa -1,259 -2.1%
Lemon Grove -979 -3.6%
National City 166 0.3%
Oceanside 10,460 6%
Poway -228 -0.5%
San Diego 65,353 4.8%
San Marcos 16,433 17.6%
Santee 3,883 6.6%
Solana Beach -879 -6.9%
Unincorporated -18,523 -3.6%
Vista -1,189 -1.2%
Region 112,944 3.4%
San Diego Region: Persons and Housing Units
Added Since 2010
| 18Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s 2021 and 2022 Annual Estimates
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Housing Unit Growth Population Growth
•Region has added approximately 191k
persons and 81k housing units from
2010 to 2022
•Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
expects Region to add an additional
112k persons and 202k housing units
from 2022 to 2050
•Reflective of housing policies included
in Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
lessening housing pressure in the
Region
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 57 of 104
Camp Pendl~ion
Pr. ,me, nd Yu,mo
~ rvr,r,
. , San Posquol
J !.:l ~f\lO{ir,n CoonryotSClnOoego
i • "! .amo'f'SO~
"'.:,~,' ,~ <~,,~~ ;~:_ ~ ";;r
.,'1'
Solana Beac -. ~ ay 1.-I
DelM ~-_.,-
DRAFT
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Population
• 1 dr,t represents SO people
°"'"'«I,.,.,,,..,,..... _....,, .. ...,..,,,_.
Sot,,c•SA'sDAGOt•ll~ ..... 15 ~alG<ow1~J.....,a,;~V24/'2024
SA NDAG
, ,, ,
I , , , , , ,
, ,
tl]u,ma.BC
A , ' , ' ,, '
r Lr~
I
1--I
I I
Cop,ton Gronde
Reset\lO{!O'l
UNITfOSTATfS
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SA NDA G
San Diego Region:
Housing Units by Structure Type
| 19
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2010 2012 2014 2018 2020 2022 2026 2029 2032 2035 2040 2050
Existing Housing Units, Historical and Projected, 2010-2050
Multi Family Single Family
•Between 2010 and 2022,
the Region added 47k MF
and 34k SF units
•Between 2022 and 2050,
the Region is projected to
add 171k MF and 32k SF
units
•Multi Family will become a
greater proportion of the
total housing stock, while
Single Family will become
a smaller proportion
37.1%38.5%45.2%
62.9%61.5%54.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2026 2029 2032 2035 2040 2050
Single Family and Multi Family Units as Percentage of Total Units
Multi Family Single Family
Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s 2021 and 2022 Annual Estimates
San Diego Region: Historical and Projected
Household Size and Vacancy Rate, 2000-2050
| 20Source: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast, American Community Surveys, and Department of Finance E-5 and E-8 Reports
4.4%
8.9%
6.8%6.1%7.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Gross Vacancy Rate
2.73 2.75 2.83 2.73
2.46
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
Average Household Size
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 58 of 104
■ ■
----
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
Subregional:
Housing
Change,
2022-2050
| 21
Jurisdiction Housing
Change #
Housing
Change %
Carlsbad 6,150 12.8%
Chula Vista 26,556 30.1%
Coronado 134 1.4%
Del Mar 111 4.2%
El Cajon 1,705 4.7%
Encinitas 2,118 7.9%
Escondido 6,211 12.5%
Imperial Beach 876 8.7%
La Mesa 1,938 7.4%
Lemon Grove 757 8.2%
National City 2,491 14%
Oceanside 13,947 20.6%
Poway 1,928 11.5%
San Diego 107,244 19.4%
San Marcos 10,446 32.3%
Santee 3,662 17.1%
Solana Beach 239 3.7%
Unincorporated 12,868 7.2%
Vista 3,438 10.2%
Region 202,819 16.4%
Average Household Size Gross Vacancy Rate
Jurisdiction 2022 2050 2022 2050
Carlsbad 2.55 2.32 6.5%7.9%
Chula Vista 3.22 2.92 3.1%3.2%
Coronado 2.32 2.15 22.9% 24.2%
Del Mar 1.99 1.86 24.9% 27.2%
El Cajon 2.91 2.63 3.3%3.8%
Encinitas 2.48 2.27 7.8%9.4%
Escondido 3.11 2.79 3.7%4.2%
Imperial Beach 2.78 2.53 7.1%8.8%
La Mesa 2.39 2.2 4.7%5.5%
Lemon Grove 3.04 2.73 3.7%4.4%
National City 3.26 2.91 5.0%5.9%
Oceanside 2.72 2.46 6.4%8.9%
Poway 2.96 2.67 2.9%3.6%
San Diego 2.54 2.28 6.8%8.3%
San Marcos 2.98 2.67 4.6%5.4%
Santee 2.79 2.54 2.8%3.2%
Solana Beach 2.29 2.12 14.4% 16.8%
Unincorporated 2.91 2.62 6.5%7.1%
Vista 3.03 2.74 3.7%4.3%
Region 2.73 2.46 6.1%7.2%
| 22
Subregional:
Change in Household Size and Vacancy Rate, 2022-2050
Source: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast
•Following the Region, the
Average Household Size is
expected to decrease for all
jurisdictions while the Gross
Vacancy Rate rises
•Reflective of lessening housing
pressure and an aging
population
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 59 of 104
DRAFT
series 15 Regional
Crowth Forecast:
Housing
1 dot represenls 20 • housing un,1s
SANDA G
...... ,,,, ,,.'•,,Ill~
,-.. -,1 ... ,·-, ~
,~-·-.' , r ,nPosQ i ~~ ~t
I Tl)uan.~ s.c
Couniyo/San~
m,sotlOl"I Q-.,,.,.,r,on
UNJJEOSTATES """"o
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
Subregional:
Jobs (Wage
& Salary)
Change,
2022-2050
| 23
Jurisdiction
Jobs
(Wage &
Salary)
Change #
Jobs
(Wage &
Salary)
Change %
Carlsbad 5,992 7.5%
Chula Vista 28,525 38.2%
Coronado 240 0.8%
Del Mar 50 1.3%
El Cajon 4,468 10.2%
Encinitas 850 3.3%
Escondido 2,107 3.9%
Imperial Beach 2,517 49.6%
La Mesa 2,222 8.8%
Lemon Grove 1,431 18%
National City 3,189 8.2%
Oceanside 17,218 35.8%
Poway 281 0.8%
San Diego 67,301 7.7%
San Marcos 12,207 30.4%
Santee 1,461 8.2%
Solana Beach 131 1.4%
Unincorporated 17,931 11.5%
Vista 2,636 6.8%
Region 170,757 10.6%
| 24
Subregional:
Change in Population, Housing, and Jobs 2022-2050
Jurisdiction Population
Change #
Population
Change %
Housing
Change #
Housing
Change %
Jobs
(wage & salary)
Change #
Jobs
(wage & salary)
Change %
Carlsbad 1,232 1.1%6,150 12.8%5,992 7.5%
Chula Vista 48,716 17.6%26,556 30.1%28,525 38.2%
Coronado -1,536 -6.9%134 1.4%240 0.8%
Del Mar -220 -5.6%111 4.2%50 1.3%
El Cajon -6,413 -6.1%1,705 4.7%4,468 10.2%
Encinitas -1,689 -2.7%2,118 7.9%850 3.3%
Escondido 437 0.3%6,211 12.5%2,107 3.9%
Imperial Beach -821 -3.1%876 8.7%2,517 49.6%
La Mesa -1,259 -2.1%1,938 7.4%2,222 8.8%
Lemon Grove -979 -3.6%757 8.2%1,431 18%
National City 166 0.3%2,491 14%3,189 8.2%
Oceanside 10,460 6%13,947 20.6%17,218 35.8%
Poway -228 -0.5%1,928 11.5%281 0.8%
San Diego 65,353 4.8%107,244 19.4%67,301 7.7%
San Marcos 16,433 17.6%10,446 32.3%12,207 30.4%
Santee 3,883 6.6%3,662 17.1%1,461 8.2%
Solana Beach -879 -6.9%239 3.7%131 1.4%
Unincorporated -18,523 -3.6%12,868 7.2%17,931 11.5%
Vista -1,189 -1.2%3,438 10.2%2,636 6.8%
Region 112,944 3.4%202,819 16.4%170,757 10.6%
Source: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 60 of 104
\
DRAFT
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Employment
• ldo1,epresents20]0bs
o.,i.... ........ """"~'~~'!ltw, _,,,..,.,~,""""''°"'
SouN:•SA'IO,,,,CO,..,,s.,,..g
~c..-.h10,..:-.V2-no.24
SA NDA G
Pio ,mo 1dYum'IO .
V:. "Y-i-n·-,
.-:-~~·-;.
j ~~
'1 --;..,
j
Tiju,ma.B.C
?nPosquo,
"'
UN/TED STATES
MEXICO SA NDA G
SA NDA G
| 25
Summary
The Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast has been a collaborative effort
between SANDAG and our member agencies
Key takeaways include:
•Series 15 presents a slow growth scenario for the San Diego region which mirrors
state trends and the California Department of Finance projection
•An aging population is projected, with more older adults and fewer children
•Housing pressure is projected to ease as units are continually added
•Continued job growth is projected, due to stable prime working age population and
increased labor force participation
Next Steps – Series 15 Regional Growth Forecast
December
Draft Series 15
Regional Growth Forecast (baseline)
February
Draft SR 15 Forecast presented to Sustainable Communities Working Group (SCWG)
Spring
Release Draft 2025
Regional Plan and
draft EIR
Fall
Anticipated
adoption of
Final 2025 RP and
certification of Final
EIR by Board20252024
| 26
2023
Spring
Draft SR 15 Forecast presented to Board of Directors Meeting
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 61 of 104
SA NDA G
SA NDA G
Questions
Stay connected with SANDAG
Explore our website
SANDAG.org
Email: grace.chung@sandag.org
Follow us on social media:
@SANDAGregion @SANDAG
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 62 of 104
CITY OF CARLSBAD
Fiscal Year 2022-23
Growth Management Program Monitoring Report
July 1, 2022 through June 30, 2023
Carlsbad City Council
Mayor Keith Blackburn
Mayor Pro Tem Priya Bhat-Patel, District 3
Council Member Melanie Burkholder, District 1
Council Member Carolyn Luna, District 2
Council Member Teresa Acosta, District 4
February 2024
Report prepared in cooperation with the following City of Carlsbad district and departments:
Carlsbad Municipal Water District
Community Development
Community Services
Fire
Library & Cultural Arts
Parks & Recreation
Public Works
June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 6 of 44
Attachment A
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 63 of 104
POPULATION
Existing Population (as of June 30, 2023)
The performance standards for city administrative facilities, library facilities, and parks are stated in terms
of population. The demand for these facilities is based on each new dwelling unit built and the estimated
number of new residents it adds to the city, which is determined using the average number of persons
per dwelling unit. Utilizing data from the 2020 Federal Census (total population divided by total number
of dwelling units), the average for Carlsbad is 2.44 persons per dwelling unit.
As shown in Table 4, as of June 30, 2023, the city’s population is estimated to be 117,107, which is
calculated by multiplying 2.44 persons per dwelling unit by the number of dwelling units and accessory
dwelling units and adding population in commercial living units (professional care facilities). The
population estimates are based on the 2020 Census population estimate and the city’s dwelling unit
estimates and may vary from estimates of other agencies.
The city’s population estimate methodology has been refined and updated since the last (March 2022)
Growth Management Program Monitoring Report for FY 2021-22, as described below:
• The FY 2021-22 report utilized a persons per dwelling unit (2.404) estimate that was based on the
April 2020 Census total population (114,746) divided by the 2020 Census total dwellings (47,734).
The city maintains a database of existing dwellings, which differs from the 2020 Census dwelling
estimate. Because the city uses its dwelling database to estimate population, as shown in Table
4, a more accurate method to calculate persons per dwelling is to divide the 2020 Census total
population (114,746) by the city’s estimated total dwellings in April 2020 (46,772), which results
in 2.44 persons per dwelling.
• The FY 2021-22 report utilized data from the 2010 Census for the number of group quarters
(professional care facilities/commercial living units) in the city, as that data was not yet available
from the 2020 Census. Since the last report (March 2022) for FY 2021-22, additional data from
the 2020 Census was evaluated regarding the number of group quarters (professional care
facilities/commercial living units). The 2020 Census reports a lower population in group quarters
(professional care facilities/commercial living units) compared to the 2010 Census.
Overall, the updated population estimate methodology results in a population estimate that is 693
persons less than the FY 2021-22 report. The reduction in population is primarily due to the updated 2020
Census group quarters information.
The city’s population estimate remains higher when compared to the population estimates from the
California Department of Finance (DOF) and the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); both
agencies are estimating a decline in population since the 2020 Census. The Department of Finance (DOF)
estimates that Carlsbad’s population, as of January 1, 2023, was 114,549 (316 less than the DOF January
1, 2022, estimate). SANDAG’s current population estimates are consistent with the DOF. City staff will
continue to monitor projected population estimates from the DOF and SANDAG.
The city updates its population estimate methodology after each decennial census; the next will be in
2030. The city’s method ensures a consistent methodology over a 10-year period, which provides stable
population projections for public facility planning purposes. If other agencies continue to estimate a
declining population, the city’s population estimates will remain conservatively high and will be adjusted
after the 2030 Census.
June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 15 of 44March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 64 of 104
Table 6: Existing Population (as of June 30, 2023)
Quadrant
Existing
Dwelling
Units
Existing
Accessory
Dwelling
Units
Total
Existing
Dwelling
Units
Dwelling
Unit
Population
Population in
Professional
Care Facilities
2020 Census
Population in
Professional
Care Facilities
After 2020
Total
Population
NW 12,781 310 13,091 31,944 172 - 32,116
NE 7,460 56 7,516 18,340 179 270 18,789
SW 10,274 54 10,328 25,201 139 - 25,340
SE 16,488 206 16,694 40,735 127 - 40,826
TOTAL 47,003 626 47,629 116,220 617 270 117,107
Buildout Population (as of June 30, 2023)
Table 5 estimates the number of dwellings that will exist at buildout based on current (June 30, 2023)
General Plan residential land use designations.
Table 7: Estimated Buildout Population (as of June 30, 2023)
Quadrant Dwelling Units8 Population9
NW 15,644 39,215
NE 8,996 22,550
SW 11,978 30,026
SE 17,228 43,186
Total 53,846 134,977
The section below titled “Housing Element Rezone Program” identifies how the rezone program affects
the estimated buildout population. The rezone program was approved by City Council on January 30,
2024, which is outside the reporting period of this report; however, the information is provided in
anticipation of questions about the rezone program.
8 Includes existing accessory dwellings.
9 Includes population in group quarters (e.g., professional care facilities) – an additional 0.86% of household population.
June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 16 of 44March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 65 of 104
Housing Element Implementation and Public
Safety Element Update
Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Report
prepared by
City of Carlsbad
Planning Division
1635 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, California 92008
Contact: Scott Donnell, Senior Planner
prepared with the assistance of
Rincon Consultants, Inc.
2215 Faraday Avenue, Suite A
Carlsbad, California 92008
July 2023
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 66 of 104r RINCON CONSULTANTS, INC.
Environmental Scientists I Planners I Engineers
rinconconsultants.com
Environmental Impact Analysis Population and Housing
Supplemental Environmental Impact Report 4.11-1
4.11 Population and Housing
This section evaluates the impacts on the regional housing supply and population growth associated
with implementation of the proposed project.
4.11.1 Setting
a. Existing and Forecasted Population, Housing, and Employment
Based on information collected by the City of Carlsbad, as of January 1, 2023, Carlsbad had 47,003
housing units, excluding accessory dwelling units, and as of June 30, 2022, Carlsbad had a
population of 117,800 residents. According to the city’s 2021 to 2029 Housing Element Update, as of
2018, the city contains a total of 57,491 jobs (City of Carlsbad 2021).
The City of Carlsbad’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2021-22 GMP Report estimates the number of dwelling units
that will exist at buildout based on the 2015 General Plan land use designations. According to the FY
2021-22 GMP Report, by the year 2035, Carlsbad would have 52,263 dwelling units and a population
of 133,515 people. The buildout population discussed in the FY 2021-22 GMP Report does not take
into account future residential density increases that would result from development projects and
Housing Element programs (City of Carlsbad 2023a).
The FY 2021-22 GMP Report does not analyze employment. Therefore, data from the San Diego
Association of Governments (SANDAG) is used to forecast employment. SANDAG’s most recent
Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast (RGF) has a horizon year of 2050, and takes into account the
adopted general plans and policies from the 18 incorporated cities and the unincorporated County,
including the City of Carlsbad. The Series 14 RGF is used to support regional planning efforts such as
the 2021 Regional Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy as well as local planning such as the
development of general plans and long-range plans. The Series 14 RGF predicts that employment is
predicted to increase from 75,912 jobs in 2016 to 103,979 jobs in 2050 (approximately 37 percent
increase) (SANDAG 2019).
4.11.2 Regulatory Setting
a. State
California Housing Law
California Housing Element law (Government Code Sections 65580 to 65589.8) requires that local
jurisdictions outline the housing needs of their community, the barriers or constraints to providing
that housing, and actions proposed to address these concerns over an eight-year planning period. In
addition, Housing Element law requires each city and county to accommodate its “fair share” of the
region’s projected housing need over the Element planning period. Cities and counties must
demonstrate that adequate sites are available to accommodate this need, and that the jurisdiction
allows for development of a variety of housing types. This housing need requirement is known as
the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) and apportions to each jurisdiction’s projected need.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 67 of 104
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March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 68 of 104
City of Carlsbad
2021 Housing Element Update
Addendum
prepared by
City of Carlsbad
Planning Division
1635 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, California 92008
Contact: Scott Donnell, Senior Planner
prepared with the assistance of
Rincon Consultants, Inc.
2215 Faraday Avenue, Suite A
Carlsbad, California 92008
February 2021
April 6, 2021 Item #6 Page 24 of 570March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 69 of 104
2015 General Plan EIR Land Use Planning, Housing, and Population Findings
The 2015 General Plan EIR determined that impacts to land use, housing, and population would be
less than significant as they pertain to conflicts with applicable land use plans (Section 3.9, Land Use
Planning, Housing, and Population: 3.9-11 through 3.9-22). It found that General Plan implementation
would not physically divide an established community and would, in fact, would beneficially increase
connectivity locally and regionally. The General Plan EIR further stated that individual development
projects would be subject to project-specific development and planning review, including adherence
to standards for land use planning, housing, and population.
The General Plan projected that in horizon year 2035, Carlsbad will have 52,320 units (Section 3.9,
Land Use, Housing, and Population: 3.9-13), which allowed for 6,798 new housing units citywide
between 2015 and horizon year 2035. As of 2019, Carlsbad had 46,382 housing units built. Therefore,
as of early 2021, the city had an available housing unit capacity of 5,938 through horizon year 2035
under the existing General Plan and as analyzed under the 2015 General Plan EIR.
Addendum Analysis
Carlsbad’s RHNA for the current planning period, 3,873 units, falls within projected horizon year
buildout analyzed in the 2015 General Plan EIR and includes 2,095 very low and low income housing
units, 749 moderate housing units, and 1,029 above moderate housing units. The draft 2021 Housing
Element Update identifies a range of tentatively reserved sites that could be developed to meet the
City’s sixth cycle RHNA throughout Carlsbad. Some of these sites may differ from those identified in
the 2015 General Plan and could require land use changes that would allow for increased density or
other provisions. As discussed in Section 5 Addendum Methodology, the City of Carlsbad has several
options for sites that could undergo land use changes through Program 1.1 to facilitate development
of RHNA housing units during the sixth cycle (2021-2029), but has not formally decided upon those
sites.
Government Code Section 65583 (c)(1)(A) states that cities have up to three years from the time a
Housing Element is adopted to rezone sites, including adoption of minimum density and development
standards. The sites inventory (provided in Appendix B of the draft 2021 Housing Element Update)
yields housing units that far exceed the number needed to meet the RHNA requirements, as
demonstrated in Table 3. During the implementation of Program 1.1 (to be completed within three
years of adoption of the Housing Element), the City of Carlsbad will select sites from the sites
inventory that yield enough units to meet RHNA requirements. Once preferred sites are chosen from
the sites inventory, the City of Carlsbad would evaluate any proposed land use changes that may be
necessary for potential environmental impacts prior to approval. Furthermore, each future
development proposal would be subject to further environmental analysis, pursuant to CEQA
Guidelines section 15168(c) and as required by state law, to evaluate potential impacts specific to
that proposal.
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN
With the passage of SB 330 in 2019, a “city shall not enact a development policy, standard, or
condition that would…[act] as a cap on the number of housing units that can be approved or
constructed either annually or for some other … period.” As the voter-initiated Growth Management
Plan establishes caps on the number of dwelling units and imposes a moratorium (under certain
conditions) on new development (including residential) that fails to meet certain standards, the City
of Carlsbad may need to eliminate or modify parts of the Growth Management Plan. To ensure the
Item #6 Page 96 of 570March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 70 of 104
Growth Management Plan’s consistency with state law, the City has included Program 2.2 in the draft
2021 Housing Element Update which requires plan compliance as necessary with SB 330 before the
bill’s sunset date of January 1, 2025. The program also recognizes and accommodates the potential
requirement for voter approval of plan changes.
However, the number of housing units identified in the draft 2021 Housing Element Update to meet
the City’s RHNA obligation would not exceed the overall citywide dwelling unit cap imposed by the
Growth Management Plan (54,599 units). Therefore, the City of Carlsbad will continue to implement
the Growth Management Plan to the extent permitted by state law.
Conclusion
The draft 2021 Housing Element Update updates policies, contains analysis of demographics and
current state law, and provides for the implementation of programs that will accomplish the goals
and objectives of the Housing Element in accordance with California Government Code Section 65583
(c)(1)(A). The housing units proposed under the draft 2021 Housing Element Update to satisfy the City
of Carlsbad’s RHNA obligation are within the growth envisioned and assessed in the 2015 General
Plan EIR and, therefore, the draft 2021 Housing Element Update would not result in new or more
severe impacts (direct or indirect) than were analyzed in the 2015 General Plan EIR.
Adoption of the draft 2021 Housing Element Update would not result in impacts (direct or indirect)
beyond those addressed or analyzed in the General Plan EIR, nor does the draft 2021 Housing Element
Update present new information that shows new or more severe impacts than those described in the
General Plan EIR. Therefore, the draft 2021 Housing Element Update is within the scope of the 2015
General Plan EIR and no additional environmental assessment of land use planning, housing, or
population is required.
Item #6 Page 97 of 570March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 71 of 104
9
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April 6, 2021 Item #6 Page 94 of 570March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 72 of 104
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April 6, 2021 Item #6 Page 95 of 570March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 73 of 104
www.carlsbadca.gov/envision
Introduction
10-1
2021-2029 Housing Element
April 2021
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 74 of 104
{'city of
Carlsbad
10-29
General Plan
10
Ho
u
s
ing
Housing Needs Assessment
The City of Carlsbad is committed to the goal of providing adequate housing for
its present and future residents. To implement this goal, the city must target its
limited resources toward those households with the greatest need. This chapter
discusses the characteristics of the city’s present and future population in order
to better define the nature and extent of housing needs in Carlsbad.
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this section:
ACS American Community Survey
AFFH Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
AI Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice
AMI Area Median Income
CDBG Community Development Block Grant
CCRC Continuing care retirement community
CHAS Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy
FPL Federal poverty level
HCD California Department of Housing and Community Development
HEAC Housing Element Advisory Committee
HUD Federal Department of Housing and Urban Development
MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area
PITC Point-in-Time Count
PM 2.5 Fine particulate matter
ROI Regional Opportunity Index
RHNA Regional Housing Needs Allocation
SANDAG San Diego Association of Governments
SB State Senate Bill
10.2.1 Population Characteristics
Population Growth
Since its incorporation in 1952, Carlsbad has grown steadily and substantially
over the decades from a population of 9,253 in 1960 to 105,185 in 2010 and an
estimated 114,4631 in 2020, as shown on Table 10-3. Table 10-3 shows Census
based population for 2010, California Department of Finance estimates for 2020,
and SANDAG population projections for the region for 2030 and 2050. It is
important to keep in mind that each data source has different accuracies based
on how the numbers are established. The Census, being based on a full survey of
every household, is the most accurate.
1 California Department of Finance Population Estimates, 2020
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 75 of 104
10.2
10-30
City of Carlsbad
10
Ho
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ing
TABLE 10‐3: POPULATION GROWTH
JURISDICTION 2010(1)
POPULATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
2020(2) 2035(3) 2050(3) 2010‐2020 2020‐2035
Carlsbad 105,185 114,463 124,351 124,518 0.8% 0.6%
Chula Vista 243,916 272,202 326,625 345,586 1.1% 1.2%
Coronado 24,697 21,381 24,165 24,219 ‐1.4% 0.8%
Del Mar 4,161 4,268 4,672 4,732 0.3% 0.6%
El Cajon 99,478 104,393 109,383 115,465 0.5% 0.3%
Encinitas 59,518 62,183 65,264 66,670 0.4% 0.3%
Escondido 143,976 153,008 172,892 173,625 0.6% 0.8%
Imperial Beach 26,324 28,055 30,369 31,691 0.6% 0.5%
La Mesa 57,065 59,966 70,252 77,881 0.5% 1.1%
Lemon Grove 25,320 26,526 28,673 30,903 0.5% 0.5%
National City 58,582 62,099 73,329 85,121 0.6% 1.1%
Oceanside 167,344 177,335 188,597 189,377 0.6% 0.4%
Poway 47,811 49,338 53,062 53,149 0.3% 0.5%
San Diego 1,301,617 1,430,489 1,665,609 1,777,936 0.9% 1.0%
San Marcos 83,772 97,209 109,095 113,015 1.5% 0.8%
Santee 53,413 57,999 63,812 66,313 0.8% 0.6%
Solana Beach 12,867 13,838 14,207 14,870 0.7% 0.2%
Vista 93,717 102,928 111,771 126,455 0.9% 0.6%
Unincorporated County 486,550 505,675 617,570 647,233 0.4% 1.3%
REGION TOTAL 3,095,313 3,343,355 3,853,698 4,068,759 0.8% 1.0%
Sources: (1) U.S. Census, 2010; (2) California Department of Finance,2020; (3) SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, Series 13
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 76 of 104
I
10-31
General Plan
10
Ho
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s
ing
Between 2010 and 2020, Carlsbad’s population grew at an annual rate of
0.8 percent per year, which matched the growth rate for the entire county.
According to SANDAG, Carlsbad’s projected population growth from 2020 to
2035 will decline slightly to 0.6% per year while the county’s overall growth rate
will increase to 1.0 percent per year.
Primary Data Sources
As part of the Housing Element, a variety of data sources are used to provide the data needed. Because
of this, timeframes are not always the same. To help provide comparisons between various data sources, 2018 was selected
as the primary year to represent current conditions as data from this year was available from the American Community
Survey (see below) for all the data sets this survey produces.
For future projections, the year 2035 is typically used. While further out than the planning period for the Housing Element,
this year matches the buildout year used in the current Carlsbad General Plan and is used here for consistency.
2010 Census. The Census is considered the most accurate data source due to the large sampling conducted. Unfortunately,
the Census was last updated in 2010, with data from the 2020 Census not available at the time this Housing Element was
developed. Because of this, 2010 Census data is typically used for historic context.
American Community Survey (ACS). Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau, the ACS is an ongoing monthly survey sent
to about 3.5 million households that provides updates to key information on a yearly basis. In addition to updates on
Census information, the ACS also covers topics not on the 2010 and 2020 Census, such as education, employment, internet
access, and transportation.
California Department of Finance. The State provides up-to-date numbers on population and housing. For housing, the
State estimates total and occupied housing units, household size, household population, and group quarters population.
ACS data are used to distribute 2010 census housing units into standard housing types (single detached units, single
attached units, two to four units, five plus or apartment units, and mobile homes). Housing units are estimated by adding
new construction and annexations and subtracting demolitions and adjusting for units lost or gained by conversions.
Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS). Each year, HUD receives custom tabulations of ACS data from
the U.S. Census Bureau. These data, known as the "CHAS" data, demonstrate the extent of housing problems and housing
needs, particularly for low-income households. On August 25, 2020 HUD released updated CHAS data for the 2013-2017
period, which is used in this Element.
SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, Series 13. SANDAG produces growth forecasts of population, housing,
employment, income, and land use for jurisdictions in San Diego County. These forecasts were used in the Housing
Element to discuss future trends and needs.
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 77 of 104
Wl
10-32
City of Carlsbad
10
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s
ing
Age Trends
Housing needs are determined in part by the age of residents; each age group
often has a distinct lifestyle, family characteristics, and income level, resulting in
different housing needs. A significant presence of children under 18 years of age
can be an indicator of the need for larger housing units since this characteristic is
often tied to families and larger households. The presence of a large number of
seniors may indicate a need for smaller homes that are more affordable and
require less maintenance to allow residents to age in place.
As summarized in Table 10-4, the median age for Carlsbad residents in 2018 was
42.4, —the second highest for northern San Diego County cities and nearly seven
years higher than the median age for county residents as a whole. In 2018,
Carlsbad residents under 18 years of age represented 23 percent of the city’s
population (a decline of 1 percent), while seniors (over 65 years of age)
represented 17 percent (a 4 percent increase from 2010).
According to SANDAG projections for 2035, many of the age groupings
(cohorts) will change very little between 2018 and 2035 (see Chart 10-1). There
will be a small increase in the 5 to 19 age group and a small reduction in the 45 to
54 age group. What is notable is the large, and continuing growth of the 65 and
over age group.
TABLE 10‐4: AGE CHARACTERISTICS AND PERCENT SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION
JURISDICTION
UNDER 18 YEARS OVER 65 YEARS
MEDIAN
AGE 2018
2010 2018 2010 2018
# % # % # % # %
Carlsbad 25,382 24% 26,587 23% 13,912 13% 19,151 17% 42.4
Encinitas 12,120 20% 12,957 21% 8,393 14% 11,124 18% 43.1
Escondido 39,590 27% 12,957 9% 15,574 11% 17,632 12% 33.8
Oceanside 33,213 20% 37,474 21% 21,261 13% 27,214 16% 37.6
Poway 11,935 25% 12,142 24% 5,968 12% 8,123 16% 40.6
San Marcos 22,717 27% 25,355 27% 9,849 12% 11,057 12% 34.2
Vista 24,997 27% 25,274 25% 9,226 10% 9,676 10% 32.7
San Diego Co. 724,168 23% 726,344 22% 351,425 11% 439,595 13% 35.6
Source: US Census 2010, American Community Survey, 2018..
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 78 of 104
10-33
General Plan
10
Ho
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ing
CHART 10‐1: AGE DISTRIBUTION 2010‐2018, 2035 PROJECTED
Sources: US Census 2010, American Community Survey, 2018, SANDAG Regional Growth Forecast
Race and Ethnicity
According to Census data from 2010 and ACS estimates from 2018, the racial
composition of the community did not change much over this period. In 2018,
72.8 percent of Carlsbad residents were White, 14.3 percent were
Hispanic/Latino, 8.2 percent were Asian, and 3.2 percent reported two or more
races. All other racial groups reported less than one percent of the population
(Table 10-5).
TABLE 10–5: RACE/ETNICITY 2010 AND 2018
RACE/ETHNICITY 2010 2018
# % # %
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 13,969 13.3% 16,202 14.3%
Non‐Hispanic 91,216 86.7% 97,468 85.7%
White 78,765 74.9% 82,786 72.8%
Black 1,231 1.2% 921 0.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native 271 0.3% 191 0.2%
Asian 7,332 7.0% 9,274 8.2%
Native Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander
182 0.2% 252 0.2%
Some other race alone 235 0.2% 405 0.4%
Two or more races 3,200 3.0% 3,639 3.2%
Total Population 105,185 100.0% 113,670 100.0%
Total percentage may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
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15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Under 55 to 19 20 to 44 45 to 64 65 and over
To
t
a
l
Po
p
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l
a
t
i
o
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2010 2018 2035 (Projected)
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10.2.2 Employment Characteristics
Employment has an important impact on housing needs. Incomes associated
with different jobs and the number of workers in a household determines the
type and size of housing a household can afford. In some cases, the types of the
jobs themselves can affect housing needs and demand (such as in communities
with military installations, college campuses, and large amounts of seasonal
agriculture). Employment growth typically leads to strong housing demand,
while the reverse is true when employment contracts.
Occupation and Wage Scale
As of 2018, the two largest occupational categories for city residents were
Managerial/Professional and Sales/Office occupations (Table 10-6). These
categories accounted for more than 76 percent of jobs held by Carlsbad residents
and approximately 62 percent of jobs held countywide by all San Diego County
employed residents.
Management jobs are the highest paid occupations in the San Diego region, while
food preparation, personal care and service, and cleanup and maintenance are
among the lowest paid (Table 10-7). The high proportion of
Managerial/Professional jobs accounts for Carlsbad’s relatively high median
household income.
TABLE 10–6: EMPLOYMENT PROFILE FOR CARLSBAD EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
CARLSBAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY
OCCUPATIONS OF EMPLOYED RESIDENTS # % # %
Managerial/Professional 28,606 50% 663,848 41%
Sales/Office 14,929 26% 340,781 21%
Service 7,512 13% 317,821 20%
Production/Transportation/Material Moving 3,830 7% 161,909 10%
Construction/Extraction/Maintenance 2,614 5% 122,071 8%
Total1 57,491 100% 1,606,430 100%
1Civilian population 16 years and over. Total percentage may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Source: American Community Survey 2018 ACS estimates.
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TABLE 10–7: AVERAGE ANNUAL SALLARY BY OCCUPATION
OCCUPATIONS AVERAGE SALARY
Management $136,531
Legal $120,265
Computer and Mathematical $104,627
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical $102,053
Architecture and Engineering $99,949
Life, Physical, and Social Science $87,579
Business and Financial Operations $80,850
Educational Instruction and Library $66,690
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media $61,614
Construction and Extraction $60,047
Protective Service $58,837
MEDIAN ANNUAL SALARY1 $57,815
Community and Social Service $56,793
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair $54,945
Sales and Related Occupations $45,974
Office and Administrative Support $45,385
Production $43,823
Transportation and Material Moving $39,362
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance $36,248
Healthcare Support $35,609
Personal Care and Service $34,806
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry $33,243
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations $31,942
1Median of salaries reported by EDD.
Sources: State Employment Development Department (EDD), Occupational Employment & Wage Data 2020 – 1st
Qtr.
Employment Trends
In 2013, SANDAG projected that Carlsbad’s employment base will grow by over
18,310 jobs between 2012 and 2035. Table 10-8 provides SANDAG’s
employment projections for Carlsbad and the San Diego region (county-level).
These data project that Carlsbad’s share of regional employment growth is
expected to increase between 2012 and 2035, as employment in Carlsbad is
projected to grow by 28 percent, compared to 22 percent countywide.
TABLE 10–8: EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
PLACE 2012 2035
CHANGE (2012‐2035)
# %
San Diego Region 1,450,913 1,769,938 319,025 22%
City of Carlsbad 66,279 84,589 18,310 28%
Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast.
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Employment and Housing Impacts in Times of COVID‐19
The San Diego region, as is the case with the rest of California and the nation, saw an economic downturn
as a result of COVID-19. A recent study by SANDAG states “current forecasts estimate that the economy will contract 4.7%
($12.4 billion) in 2020. This almost erases the economic gains of the previous two years. Forecasts produced pre-COVID
had estimated 2.0% annual growth for 2020, so the setback to the economy is closer to 7.0%.” The report goes on to note
that “with an estimated 176,000 workers still unemployed due to COVID-19 in the San Diego region, lower-income workers
are more likely to be out of work as this pandemic continues, compared to middle- and high-income workers.”
The impacts on employment are especially pronounced for disproportionately affected groups, including females,
minorities, lower-income households, and young adults. The impacts of underemployment will certainly exacerbate the
affordability of and access to housing in the region and to Carlsbad. The following chart illustrates the impacts on
employment by income in the San Diego region, showing the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic over a four-month
period in 2020. Lower-income wage earners (those earning below $27,000) experienced an over 23% decrease in
employment.
COVID‐19 Impacts on the San Diego Regional Economy, SANDAG, October 15, 2020
10.2.3 Household Characteristics and Special Needs
Groups
Household Type
The U.S. Census defines a household as all persons who occupy a housing unit,
which may include single persons living alone, families related through marriage
or blood, and unrelated individuals living together. Information on household
characteristics is important to understanding the growth and changing needs of
a community. A family-oriented community may need large housing units,
March 4, 2025 Item #8 Page 82 of 104
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-0.8%
-8.5%
-23.3%
3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29
-Below $27,000 -$27,000 to $60,000 -over $60,000
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while a community with more single or elderly households may need smaller
units with fewer bedrooms.
As shown in Table 10-9, roughly 32 percent of the city’s households in 2018 were
married families without children, 25 percent were married families with
children, 14 percent were other families, and 29 percent were non-family
households. Among the non-family households, more than three-quarters were
single-households and about one-third were seniors living alone. In fact, senior
households saw the highest growth rate among households: growing by
36 percent between 2010 and 2018.
TABLE 10–9: HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
2010 2018 % CHANGE (2010‐
2018) # % # %
Total Households 40,152 100% 43,293 100% 8%
Family Households 26,699 66% 30,741 71% 15%
Married with Children 9,626 24% 10,791 25% 12%
Married No Children 11,917 30% 13,778 32% 16%
Other Families 5,156 13% 6,172 14% 20%
Non‐Family Households 13,377 33% 12,552 29% ‐6%
Singles 10,656 27% 9,928 23% ‐7%
Singles 65+ 3,153 8% 4,186 10% 33%
Other 2797 7% 2624 6% ‐6%
Average Household Size 2.48 2.61 5%
Sources: U.S. Census, 2010 and American Community Survey, 2018.
The city had a relatively low average household size of 2.61 in 2018, increasing
slightly from 2.48 in 2010. Countywide, the average household size was slightly
larger, at 2.87 in 2018.
2018 ACS estimates suggest an approximate eight percent increase in the number
of households (to 43,293), reflective of Carlsbad’s more modest growth since
2010. Percentages of family households, including those with children, and non-
family households, including those with singles aged 65 years and over, are
similar to the percentages noted for 2010 in Table 10-9.
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Household Income
Income is the most important factor affecting housing opportunities,
determining the ability of households to balance housing costs with other basic
necessities. The 2018 ACS estimates reported that the median household income
in Carlsbad was $107,172. Compared to neighboring jurisdictions, only
Encinitas had a median household income higher than Carlsbad (Chart 10-2).
CHART 10‐2: MEDIAN HOUSHOLD INCOME, 2018
For purposes of the Housing Element and other state housing programs, the
California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) has
established five income categories based on Area Median Income (AMI) of a
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The AMI, which is different than the
estimated median household incomes shown in Chart 10-2, is applicable to all
jurisdictions in San Diego County and changes with the cost of living. The AMI
for a four-person household in San Diego County is $92,700 (2020), an increase
of $10,900 from the AMI in 2018. There are five income categories based on the
AMI and used in the Housing Element:
Extremely Low-income (up to 30 percent of AMI)
Very Low-income (>30and ≤ 50 percent of AMI)
Low-income (>50 and ≤ 80 percent of AMI)
Moderate Income (>80 and ≤ 120 percent of AMI)
Above Moderate Income (>120 percent of AMI)
$74,855
$107,172 $113,175
$68,652
$105,732
$76,619
$105,821
$65,696
$‐
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
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According to the CHAS data prepared by the Census Bureau for the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), between 2013 and
2017, 9 percent of Carlsbad households had extremely low-incomes, 7 percent of
households were very low-income, and 11 percent were low-income
(Table 10-10). Of the total 11,620 lower income households (extremely low-,
very low-, and low-income combined), the percentage of renters and owners was
evenly split at 50 percent each. The small majority of moderate-income
household were owner-occupied (56 percent), whereas a significant majority of
the above moderate-income households were owner-households (76 percent).
Note that the CHAS data does not provide an above-moderate income category
(more than 120 percent AMI) as established by HCD; instead, it is simply
grouped as part of household income above 100 percent of AMI, as reflected in
Table 10-10.
TABLE 10–10: HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE AND HOUSEHOLD TYPE 2017
OWNER RENTER TOTAL % OF TOTAL1
Extremely Low‐
income 1,625 2,160 3,785 9%
Very Low‐income 1,605 1,400 3,005 7%
Low‐income 2,600 2,230 4,830 11%
Moderate Income
(81‐100% AMI) 1,870 1,495 3,365 8%
Moderate/Above
Moderate Income
(above 100% AMI)
20,455 7,850 28,305 65%
TOTAL1 28,150 15,130 43,280 100%
1 Total percentage does not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Source: 2013‐2017 CHAS data, released August 2020.
The Housing Element must project housing needs for extremely low-income
households as a portion of the very low-income household RHNA target. For
Carlsbad, approximately 3,785 extremely low-income households and 3,005 very
low-income households were identified in the 2013-2017 CHAS data. These
household totals equate to 56 percent and 44 percent, respectively, of the total
extremely low and very low-income households. These percentages suggest that
of Carlsbad’s RHNA share of 1,311 very low-income households, at least 734
units should be available for extremely low-income and 577 units for very low-
income households. As indicated in this Housing Element (refer to Section 10.3),
the city continues to help meet the need for affordable housing by designating
adequate sites and financial assistance and by approving affordable housing
projects, including modification of development standards as necessary.
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Special Needs Households
Certain groups have greater difficulty finding decent, affordable housing due to
special circumstances. Special circumstances may be related to one’s income,
family characteristics, or disability status, among others. In Carlsbad, persons
and families with special needs include seniors, persons with disabilities, large
households, single-parent families, homeless, farmworkers, students, and
military personnel. Table 10-11 summarizes the presence of special needs groups
in the city and the following discussion summarizes their housing needs.
TABLE 10–11: SPECIAL NEEDS GROUPS IN CARLSBAD
SPECIAL NEEDS GROUPS NUMBER
% OF TOTAL
POPULATION
Seniors 19,151 15%
Disabled Persons 12,381 8%
Persons in Large Households1 8445 7%
Persons in Single Parent Households1 15,036 12%
Homeless Persons 147 <1%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting and Mining Workers2 427 <1%
Students3 8,723 6%
Military2 6,412 7%
1Based on number of households multiplied by average household size.
2 Veteran Civilian Population 18 years and over.
3 Population enrolled in college or graduate school.
Sources: Regional Task Force on the Homeless, 2020; 2018 ACS estimates.
Senior Households
Senior households have special housing needs due to three concerns – income,
health care costs, and disabilities. According to the 2018 ACS estimates, 19,151
seniors (aged 65 and over) resided in the city in 2018 and 11,115 households were
headed by seniors. Among the senior-headed households, 79 percent were
owners and 21 percent were renters. The 2018 ACS reported that seniors 65 and
over earned a median income of $81,462 (over three-quarters of the citywide
median income, as reported by the Census Bureau). In addition, approximately
27 percent of the senior population also experience one or more disabilities,
which can affect housing needs and costs. In 2020, approximately 11 percent of
the applicant households on the waiting list for housing vouchers are seniors.
Housing options for special needs groups, especially seniors and persons with
disabilities are limited and identified as a regional housing impediment.
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Carlsbad is a popular retirement community, and includes facilities that provide
assisted living, nursing and special care, and general services to seniors. As of
September 2020, Carlsbad had 2,207 beds within 25 licensed senior residential
care facilities, according to the California Department of Social Services,
Community Care Licensing Division2. Almost 95 percent of these beds were
provided in nine larger facilities having more than six beds, including three
continuing care retirement communities (CCRC).
The largest of these communities is La Costa Glen (1,233 bed capacity), which
opened in 2003 and completed construction of its final phase in 2008. A planned
fourth CCRC – Dos Colinas – was approved by the City Council in January 2012.
When constructed, Dos Colinas will provide living and support services to more
than 300 seniors. The approval is valid until 2022.
Since the last Housing Element Update, the following senior housing projects
have been approved, permitted for construction, or completed:
As part of the inclusionary requirement for the West Village of the
Robertson Ranch Master Plan, construction was completed for the
101-unit Portola Senior Apartments. The project includes 100 one-
and two- bedroom units that are restricted to 70 percent of AMI and
is completely leased up.
In 2019, permits were issued for Casa Aldea/Cannon Road Senior
Housing. Consisting of 98-unit senior apartments, of which 20 units
will be restricted to low-income residents, Casa Aldea is currently
under construction.
Also, under construction are two additional senior facilities. The
first is Summit Carlsbad, a 101-unit senior community featuring
assisted living and memory care units. The second is Oakmont
Assisted Living project, a 115-bed assisted living facility and 54-beds
in the memory care component.
Marja Acres, approved on November 3, 2020, will feature 248
townhomes, 46 affordable senior apartments, and 10,000 square feet
of commercial space and community recreation uses. Of the 46
affordable units, 9 units are for seniors earning 60% AMI and 37
units are for seniors earning 50% AMI.
Persons with Disabilities
Many disabled persons can have special housing needs because of their
disabilities, often fixed and limited income, lack of accessible and affordable
housing, and medical costs associated with their disabilities. The Census defines
a “disability” as “a long-lasting physical, mental, or emotional condition. This
condition can make it difficult for a person to do activities such as walking,
2 https://www.ccld.dss.ca.gov/carefacilitysearch/DownloadData
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climbing stairs, dressing, bathing, learning, or remembering. This condition can
also impede a person from being able to go outside the home alone or to work at
a job or business.” According to the 2018 ACS estimates, 12,381 persons with
one or more disabilities resided in Carlsbad in 2018, representing more than
11 percent of the city’s residents over five years of age. Of the population with
disabilities, 5,918 (48 percent) were seniors. Individuals with cognitive,
ambulatory, or independent living difficulties represented the most common
disabilities, as reported in Table 10-12.
TABLE 10–12: INDIVIDUALS WITH DISABILITIES IN CARLSBAD
YOUTH
(AGE 5 ‐ 17)
ADULTS
(AGE 18 ‐ 64)
SENIORS
(AGE 65+) TOTAL
Individuals Reporting One or More Disabilities 642 5,821 5,918 12,381
With hearing difficulty 38 891 2,330 3,259
With vision difficulty 10 540 655 1,205
With cognitive difficulty 487 1,732 1,310 3,529
With ambulatory difficulty 29 1,532 3,075 4,636
With self‐care difficulty 203 657 1,070 1,930
With independent living difficulty N/A 1,510 2,254 3,764
Columns do not sum to total individuals because individuals may report more than one disability.
Sources: 2018 ACS estimates.
For those of working age, disabilities can also restrict the type of work performed
and income earned. In fact, according to the 2018 ACS estimates, 76 percent of
individuals over 16 with a reported disability were not in the labor force;
24 percent were employed; and no individuals with a disability were reported to
be unemployed (i.e., looking for work).
Persons with Developmental Disabilities
Senate Bill 812 (Chapter 507, Statutes of 2010) amended state housing element
law (California Government Code Section 65583) to require the analysis of the
disabled to include an evaluation of the special housing needs of persons with
developmental disabilities. A developmental disability is defined as a disability
that originates before an individual becomes 18 years old, continues, or can be
expected to continue, indefinitely, and constitutes a substantial disability. This
definition includes intellectual disability, cerebral palsy, epilepsy, and autism.
The California Department of Developmental Services contracts with nonprofit
regional centers to provide or coordinate services and support for individuals
with developmental disabilities. In the San Diego region, the San Diego Regional
Center, with a satellite office in Carlsbad, provides a variety of services to persons
with developmental disabilities and advocates for opportunities to maximize
potential and to experience full inclusion in all areas of community life.
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As of March, 2019, the San Diego Regional Center served approximately 29,206
clients with developmental disabilities who live in San Diego County, with the
Carlsbad satellite office serving 22 percent of these clients. This includes 151
clients who live in Carlsbad with 67 of these individuals being children under the
age of 18 who live with their parents. The remaining 84 clients are adults over
the age of 18; over half (57 percent) of these individuals live with their parents,
while 23 live in their own apartments with “come-in support” and assistance and
13 live in licensed group homes. Additional persons with developmental
disabilities may reside in Carlsbad but are not seeking assistance from the San
Diego Regional Center.
While some developmentally disabled individuals can live and work
independently within a conventional housing environment, more severely
disabled individuals will require a group living environment with supervision. In
general, the San Diego Regional Center (and its clients) prefer to house persons
with developmental disabilities with family members. When that is not feasible,
come-in support and licensed group apartments housing four to six persons
(with individual bedrooms, but shared bathroom and kitchen facilities) are
preferred. This type of housing may be designed to look like a big house and is
compatible with and appropriate for existing residential neighborhoods with
good access to transit and services.
Incorporating ‘barrier-free’ design in all new multifamily housing (as required by
California and Federal Fair Housing laws) is especially important to provide the
widest range of choices for disabled residents. In 2011, the city adopted a
reasonable accommodation ordinance to provide flexibility in development
standards for housing for persons with disabilities. The ordinance became
effective in 2013 and one request for reasonable accommodation was received in
2019.
The City regularly awards Community Development Block Grant (CDBG)
funds to provide supportive services such as food for lower income persons and
emergency and temporary housing for victims of abuse. In January 2013, the City
provided $1,065,000 in CDBG funds to assist in the acquisition of property for a
hospice home in Carlsbad for primarily low-income households. Additionally,
in January 2020, the City provided $4,043,392 to assist in the construction of 48
units of supportive apartment units for very low- and extremely low-income
homeless veterans and veteran families, and people experiencing homelessness
with a serious mental illness. This supplemented the $4,250,000 awarded by the
city in 2017 for a total of almost $8.3 million in project assistance. The most
severely affected individuals may require an institutional environment where
medical attention and physical therapy are provided. Because developmental
disabilities exist before adulthood, the first issue in supportive housing for the
developmentally disabled is the transition from the person’s living situation as a
child to an appropriate level of independence as an adult.
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Large Households
Large households are defined as households with five or more persons in the unit.
Lower income large households are a special needs group because of their need
for larger units, which are often in limited supply and therefore command higher
rents. In order to save for the necessities of food, clothing, and medical care, it is
common for lower income large households to reside in smaller units, frequently
resulting in overcrowding.
According to 2018 ACS estimates, 2,363 households, or 5.3 percent of the total
households in Carlsbad, had five or more members. This proportion is greater
for renters (5.7 percent) than for owners (5.0 percent). The share of large
households out of total households in Carlsbad (5.3 percent) was significantly
lower than the proportion of large households statewide (13.6 percent of total
households).
According to the 2018 ACS estimates, the city’s housing stock included 30,435
units with three or more bedrooms. Among these large units, 28,874 were
owner-occupied and 5,561 were renter-occupied. While overall units have
increased by 660 units since 2014, the total number of these units for rent has
declined by 313 units. Taken together, this suggests that rental of large units may
be competitive to attain. (ACS 2018, Table S2504).
Single‐Parent Households
Carlsbad was home to 3,152 single-parent households with children under age
18 in 2018, according to the 2018 ACS estimates. Of these, 2,423 (77 percent)
were female-headed families with children. Single-parent households, in
particular female-headed families, often require special assistance such as
accessible day care, health care, and other supportive services because they often
have lower incomes. In fact, according to the 2018 ACS estimates, 36 percent of
all single-parent female-headed households with children lived in poverty during
the previous year, a ten percent increase from the 26 percent reported in 2014.
This suggests a need for affordable units with adequate bedroom counts and
potentially some on-site or nearby day care and other services (see Program 2.9
in this Housing Element).
The official poverty definition used by the Census is based on income before
taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public
housing, Medicaid, and food stamps). The income levels vary by the number of
individuals in a household. More on this definition can be found at this link:
https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-
measures.html#:~:text=If%20a%20family%27s%20total%20income,it%20is%2
0considered%20in%20poverty.&text=The%20official%20poverty%20definitio
n%20uses,Medicaid%2C%20and%20food%20stamps)
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Persons experiencing homelessness
HUD defines a person as homeless if they:
1. Lacks a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence;
2. The primary nighttime residence is a publicly or privately operated
shelter designed for temporary living arrangements;
3. The primary residence is an institution that provides a temporary
residence for individuals that should otherwise be institutionalized; or
4. The primary residence is a public or private place not designed for or
ordinarily used as a regular sleeping accommodation.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s 2019
Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress, the State of California had the
highest population of persons experiencing homelessness with
151,278 individuals, 108,432 of those individuals being unsheltered. The term
unsheltered from HUD is defined as “anyone whose primary nighttime
residence – where they sleep is a place not designed or ordinarily used for
sleeping, including cars, parks, abandoned buildings, bus or train stations,
airports, camping grounds, etc.” The County of San Diego has the fifth largest
population of persons experiencing homelessness in the United States with
7,619 persons experiencing homelessness during the 2020 Point-in-Time Count
(PITC) and nearly 3,971 individuals were unsheltered. The Regional Task Force
on Homelessness believes that over the course of a year that 20,000 individuals
experience homelessness in San Diego County.
Out of the PITC counts conducted, 64.1 percent of the persons experiencing
homelessness were concentrated in the City of San Diego. The North County
Coastal area has 8.3 percent of the total persons experiencing homelessness. In
the City of Carlsbad, data from 2020 the PITC from 2020 showed 147 individuals
experiencing homelessness with 53 sheltered and 94 unsheltered. As shown in
Chart 10-3, the annual PITC data for the last decade shows the number of those
unsheltered in the city has fluctuated from a low of 21 persons in 2011 to a high
of 152 in 2018. The recent counts conducted in 2019 and 2020 have shown a
decline in unsheltered persons.
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CHART 10‐3: UNSHELTERED POPULATION IN CARLSBAD, 2011‐2020
In the North San Diego County area, the majority of homeless persons
congregate in the cities of Oceanside, Vista, and Escondido (Table 10-13). This
is reflected in the number of shelters and service agencies in those communities
(Table 10-14), some of which are also in Carlsbad. Within the city is La Posada
de Guadalupe which provides 50 year-round beds for emergency shelter and an
additional 10 beds in the winter. Located at 2478 Impala Drive in Carlsbad, this
facility is self-described as a 24/7 men’s short-term housing program for
homeless men and employed farm workers. In addition to these beds, La Posada
also provides 50 beds for transitional housing to male farmworkers and persons
experiencing homelessness.
TABLE 10–13: PERSONS EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS BY JURISDICTION, 2020
UNSHELTERED
SHELTERED
EMERGENCY
SHELTERS
TRANSITIONAL
HOUSING SAFE HAVENS TOTAL
%
UNSHELTERED
Carlsbad 94 53 0 0 147 63.9%
Encinitas (San Dieguito, Solana Beach & Del Mar) 47 25 8 0 80 58.8%
Escondido 264 202 52 11 429 61.5%
Oceanside 242 35 131 0 408 59.3%
San Diego City 2,283 1,759 809 36 4,887 46.7%
San Marcos 8 0 0 0 8 100.0%
Vista 51 49 0 0 100 51.0%
San Diego County Unincorporated 193 0 0 0 193 100.0%
Source: San Diego Regional Task Force on the Homeless, We All Count Point‐In‐Time Count, 2020.
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160 152
140
120
100
80 78
60
40
20
0
2011 2012 2013 20.15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Farmworkers
Based on the General Plan Open Space, Conservation and Recreation Element
as well as recent development primarily in Robertson Ranch, there are
approximately 725 acres of agricultural land in Carlsbad (including active or
fallow), a reduction of about 210 acres from that estimated in 2008. According
to California Employment Development Department data for 2020, 3,290
persons were employed in agriculture (including fishing and forestry
occupations) in San Diego County, earning average annual wages of $33,243,
substantially lower than the county area median income (AMI) for a four-person
household ($92,700). However, this data compares individual income versus
household income and does not necessarily constitute the agricultural worker
household’s entire income. According to the 2018 ACS estimates, 627 persons
who lived in Carlsbad were employed in the farming, forestry, and fishing
occupations in 2018. However, the Census likely underestimated the true
number of farmworkers in Carlsbad due to the seasonal nature of the
employment, the use of migrant laborers, and the significant level of under-
reporting among undocumented persons.
In comparison, the US Department of Agriculture’s 2017 Census of Agriculture
reported that in San Diego County, 2,202 persons were hired farm labor (full-
time), 7,982 persons were employed for 150 days or more, and 4,353 were hired
for 150 days or less.
In 2008, the City Council approved $2 million in Agricultural Conversion
Mitigation Fee funding to rebuild and expand the city’s existing
homeless/farmworker shelter, La Posada de Guadalupe. Completed in July 2013,
the expansion provides 50 to 72 beds specifically for farmworkers in addition to
the 50 beds the shelter already provides for other homeless persons (which may
include farmworkers). In 2020, the City Council approved $58,000 in CDBG
funding for preliminary planning and design work for a future expansion of the
shelter.
Students
Typically, students have low incomes and therefore can be impacted by a lack of
affordable housing, which can often lead to overcrowding within this special
needs group. Carlsbad is located in proximity to California State University at
San Marcos, Mira Costa Community College, and Palomar Community College.
In addition, the University of California at San Diego, the private University of
San Diego, as well as the region’s largest university, San Diego State University,
are located within a 30 to 45-minute drive from Carlsbad. According to ACS
estimates in 2018, approximately eight percent of Carlsbad residents were
enrolled in a college or graduate school.
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Military
The U.S. Marine Corps Camp Pendleton is located about five miles north of
Carlsbad, adjacent to the city of Oceanside. As a result, there is demand for
housing for military personnel in Carlsbad. This demand has two components:
active military personnel seeking housing near the base, and retired military
remaining near the base after serving. Most enlisted military individuals earn
incomes at the lower range of the military pay scale and need affordable housing
options. As of July, 2020, Camp Pendleton had approximately 7,300 housing
units on base. However, the waiting list for on-base housing can take up to 18
months, depending on rank, the number of bedrooms requested, and various
other factors. The 2018 ACS estimates reported that 533 residents in Carlsbad
were employed by the military (down from 917 in 2014). Although proximity to
the base makes Carlsbad a desirable place to reside for all military ranks, high
housing costs may explain the relatively low number of military personnel
residing in the city. In addition to current military personnel, the 2018 ACS
estimates reported 6,412 Veterans over the age of 18 live in Carlsbad. Veterans
comprise about 7.1 percent of the population in Carlsbad, which is comparable
to the proportion of veterans in San Diego County as a whole (7.9 percent).
Windsor Pointe (formerly known as Harding Veterans Housing and Oak
Veterans Housing) was approved by the Planning Commission in January 2017.
The Windsor Pointe project consists of two sites, Harding Street and Oak
Avenue. The Harding Street site will consist of a 26-unit affordable apartment
building and received approval for a density increase from 30 to 48 dwelling units
per acre. The Oak Avenue site will have a 24-unit affordable apartment building
and was approved for a density increase from 30 to 55 dwelling units per acre.
Of the 50 total units, 48 are affordable and 2 units are manager units at market
rate. When completed, the project will provide permanent supportive housing to
very low and extremely low-income homeless veterans and veteran families, and
people experiencing homelessness with a serious mental illness.
10.2.4 Housing Characteristics
Housing Type
According to SANDAG estimates, Carlsbad had 46,382 housing units as of 2019.
Among these units, as indicated in Chart 10-4, two-thirds (69 percent) were
single-family, including 55 percent consisting of single-family detached units
and 14 percent single-family attached units; -multi-family dwelling units
comprised 29 percent of the city’s housing stock in 2019 and the remaining
3 percent were mobile homes (see Chart 10-4).
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The Village
Carlsbad Village—the city’s downtown—is Carlsbad’s oldest and most walkable neighborhood. The Village is home to
most of Carlsbad’s historic resources and cultural arts, including the Carlsbad Theatre, New Village Arts Theatre, Old Santa
Fe Train Depot, and Army and Navy Academy. Its history can be traced back to at least the 1880s when the rail line linking
San Diego and Los Angeles was constructed. Its importance to the community can be demonstrated through formation of
the Village Redevelopment Area in the 1980s and adoption of the Village and Barrio Master Plan in 2018.
The Village’s beachside location, popular restaurants, and stores make the city’s downtown attractive to residents and
visitors alike. The Village train station makes transit use realistic for nearby residents. Recent construction includes a variety
of apartments and condominiums, some in a “mixed use,” commercial below and residential above, format. Additionally,
new businesses occupy recently completed and existing commercial buildings. The mix of new and “repurposed’ buildings
and commercial and residential uses only adds to the Village’s desirability.
The Barrio
Established in the 1920s, the roughly 135-acre Barrio area first served as a residential enclave for new immigrants
supporting the agriculture economy of the city. Today, the Barrio reflects elements of its past in its historic buildings as well
as in its long-time residents and cohesive community. As with the Village, the street grid and alleys that cross much of the
Barrio contribute to a connected and walkable community. Residents can also walk to the beach or the train station, both
about a mile or less away.
Land use in the Barrio is primarily residential, with a wide range of housing types, from single-family and two-family
dwellings on small lots within the center of the neighborhood along Roosevelt and Madison streets to higher density multi-
family residential development located around the neighborhood’s perimeter west of Interstate 5 and east of the railroad
tracks. Proximity to the Village means residents have access to a variety of commercial services, but the Barrio itself also
features neighborhood markets and small commercial and industrial areas. Community assets in the Barrio include a Boys
and Girls Club, Pine Avenue Community Park and Chase Field, the adjacent City of Carlsbad Senior Center, and recently
completed community center and gardens and public art.
The 2018 Village and Barrio Master Plan sets forth a vision to honor the very best of these two neighborhoods while
adapting to changing community, environmental and economic needs. This is expressed through the plan’s policies and
standards that support and enhance the Village and Barrio’s historical roots and mix of uses in a walkable, beachside
environment.
Race
Race is a known contributor to unfair housing practices. The existence of a
concentration of minorities living in one location may be an indicator that some
minority groups in Carlsbad do not have as many housing choices as non-
minority residents.
Between 2015 and 2018, there was a slight increase in Asian (+0.5 percent) and
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander (+0.1 percent) residents, as well as
residents of two or more races (+0.4 percent); and slight decrease in White (-0.1
percent), Black/African American (-0.3 percent), and American Indian/Alaska
Native (-0.2 percent) residents, as well as residents of some other race (-0.5
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percent). Concurrently, there was also a slight decrease in the Hispanic or Latino
population (-0.6 percent). It is important to note that the overall racial makeup
of Carlsbad residents is fairly homogenous, with over three-quarters of the
population being White (see Table 10-23).
TABLE 10‐23: RACIAL MAKEUP OF CARLSBAD RESIDENTS, 2015‐2018
RACE
PERCENTAGE BY YEAR
2015 2016 2017 2018
White alone 84.5 84.4 84.7 84.4
Black or African American alone 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Asian alone 7.8 7.6 7.6 8.3
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander alone
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Some other race 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.7
Two or more races 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.3
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 14.9 14.1 14.1 14.3
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 73.5 73.8 73.6 72.8
Source: American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates, 2015‐2018, Table S0601
Segregation
This Housing Element uses the dissimilarity index to identify potential areas of
racial segregation within Carlsbad. The index of dissimilarity is a measure of
residential segregation. It compares the spatial distributions of different groups
among units in a metropolitan area. Segregation is the smallest when majority
and minority populations are evenly distributed. The index ranges from 0.0
(complete integration) to 1.0 (complete segregation). Data shows that Carlsbad
faces some segregation challenges, according to the index of dissimilarity,
collected during the 2010 Decennial Census (see Figure 10-1). The Village-Barrio
neighborhood (loosely represented by Census Tract 179) and the northeast
corner of the city, however, show slightly less segregation than the rest of the city;
this is also where a higher percentage of the Hispanic or Latino population live
compared to the rest of the city. As a proxy to measuring changes in residential
segregation patterns over time, Figure 10-2 shows the change in the percentage
of White residents within the city between 2015 and 2018. Central Carlsbad and
the northwest corner of the city show an increase in White residents, while the
western coast, north, and northeast area. While areas with an increase in White
residents (Central Carlsbad and the northwest corner of the city) are presumed
to experience increased segregation, areas with a decrease in White residents
(western coast, north, and northwest areas of the city), and therefore an increase
in minority races, are presumed to experience increased diversity and
integration.
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Figure 10-2: Change in Residential Segregation Patterns
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Sources: City of Carlsbad, 2020; Mintier Harnish 2020; Regional Opportunity Index, 2014Revised: 12/24/2020
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Poverty
According to the 2018 ACS 5-Year estimates, the northeast area of the city
experienced the highest rates of poverty (see Figure 10-5). Additionally, most
areas of the city experienced a decrease in poverty rates while two census tracts
(one at the north end and on the central-east side of the city) saw an increase in
poverty rates (see Figure 10-6). AFFH-related programs under the Fair Housing
goal and policies in Section 10.7 will work to improve housing choices for lower-
income groups through the continuation of financing programs and increasing
production of affordable housing.
Income and Wealth Distribution
The Gini coefficient (sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio) is an
important tool for analyzing income and wealth distribution within a region but
should not be mistaken for an absolute measurement of income or wealth. For
instance, it is possible for a high-income area to have the same distribution as a
low-income area, as long as income is distributed similarly. Like the index of
dissimilarity, it varies between 0.0 and 1.0, with 1.0 indicating maximum
inequality. Table 10-26 shows that Carlsbad has a more equitable income
distribution than Encinitas, San Marcos, San Diego, and the county, but is more
inequitable than Escondido, Oceanside, and Vista. While a Gini coefficient of
0.4504 indicates that Carlsbad could be a more economically equitable place, this
is not a unique challenge to the region. Figure 10-7 shows a map of Gini
coefficients by census tracts. The areas along the northern, western, and southern
edges of the city exhibit the most inequitable wealth distribution in the city and
is most equitable in the center of the city.
TABLE 10‐26: GINI COEFFICIENTS BY CITY, 2018
CITY GINI COEFFICIENT
Carlsbad 0.4440
Encinitas 0.4983
Escondido 0.4387
Oceanside 0.4343
San Marcos 0.4508
Vista 0.4058
San Diego 0.4710
San Diego County 0.4630
Source: American Community Survey, 2018 5‐Year Estimates, Table B19083
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Figure 10-5: Persons Living in Poverty, 2018
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Sources: City of Carlsbad, 2020; Mintier Harnish 2020; Regional Opportunity Index, 2014Revised: 12/24/2020
Village
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5 - 10 percent
10 - 15 percent
15 - 20 percent
Village / Barrio Inset Map
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Figure 10-6: Change in Poverty Rates
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Sources: City of Carlsbad, 2020; Mintier Harnish 2020; Regional Opportunity Index, 2014Revised: 12/24/2020
Village
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Special Needs Populations
Certain households and residents, because of their special characteristics and
needs, have greater difficulty finding decent and affordable housing and are more
sensitive to changes in circumstances, which may lead to housing disparities.
These circumstances may be related to age, family characteristics, disability,
health status, current housing status, and type of employment. Expanded
discussions about these groups (i.e., senior households, persons with disabilities,
persons with developmental disabilities, large households, single-parent
households, persons experiencing homelessness, farmworkers, students, military
personnel (including veterans and those currently active)), can be found under
the Special Needs Households section. This Housing Element provides policies
and programs under the Housing Implementation section that address
improving housing access for populations that may otherwise experience
hardships in accessing decent and affordable housing. These include assistance
for special needs populations (Program 2.9) such as seniors, persons with
physical and/or mental disabilities (including developmental disabilities), large
households, extremely low-income households, single-parent households,
female head of households, veterans, farmworkers, students, and military
personnel. While Program 2.9 covers many special needs populations, other
programs highlight additional actions for specific population groups, such as
seniors (Program 2.10), persons with disabilities (Program 2.11), large families
(Program 2.12), persons experiencing homelessness (Program 2.13), and
military personnel and students (Program 2.14). Programs include efforts that
range from providing CDBG funds groups that provide services for those with
special needs, to engaging with housing advocates and encouraging housing
developers to designate affordable housing units for special needs populations, to
continuing to ensure reasonable accommodations to building or zoning
requirements, to providing housing navigation services, to ensuring that local
military and student housing offices have updated information about the
availability of low-income housing in the city. The information provided in this
section is a sample of the programs the City plans to provide in implementing
this Housing Element. The Housing Implementation subsection of Section 10.7
has a complete list of all policies and programs, as well as details about each
program.
Although not historically standard to housing elements, persons living with
HIV/AIDS are included in the AFFH section for several reasons. First, the Fair
Housing Amendments Act of 1988, which is primarily enforced by HUD,
prohibits housing discrimination against persons with disabilities, including
persons with HIV/AIDS. Second, California has the largest number of HIV and
third largest number of AIDS cases in the United States, and San Diego County
has the third largest number of people living with HIV and AIDS in California.
Third, in 2016, the City of San Diego had the greatest proportion of diagnoses
(67.8 percent), followed by Chula Vista (6.5 percent) and Oceanside (3.2
percent). While Carlsbad is not among the cities with the highest percentage of
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residents living with HIV/AIDS (88 persons), it is important to acknowledge as
a regional issue.
The city will also continue to support the development of housing for persons
and households with special needs as it continues to implement the Inclusionary
Housing Ordinance. The city also staffs a housing navigator to provide housing
opportunities for special needs populations city by connecting them to resources
and information on assisted and below market housing. AFFH-related programs
under the Fair Housing goal and policies in Section 10.7 will work to create even
more opportunities to improve housing choices for special population groups in
the city.
Displacement Risk
Because of federal protections and legal avenues available to help persons with
special needs and/or persons in minority groups, income is used as the main
criteria for determining displacement risk. Between 2015 and 2018, median
home sale prices have gone up 19.4 percent (see Homeownership Market
section), while the citywide household median income rose 18.3 percent.
Housing prices that rise more quickly than household income will eventually
lead to certain residents being priced out of their community. Data also shows,
however, that the housing cost burden experienced by households across the city
have generally decreased between 2015-2018. This data, however, aggregates
residents at different income levels.
A map of cost burden shows that residents in every census tract spends at least
20 percent of their income towards housing costs. Most of the city spends over
30 percent of their income on housing, and roughly a third of the city spends over
40 percent of their income on housing (Figure 10-8). Residents living in living on
the west, north, central, and southeast areas of the city spend the greatest
proportions of their income on housing. These areas of Carlsbad, however, do
not show a direct relationship with the other typical indicators of disadvantage,
such as high poverty rates, extremely low household incomes, or linguistic
isolation. In many of these census tracts, poverty rates are among the lowest in
the city. In the northern area of the city, including the Village-Barrio area,
however, some of the highest percentages of cost-burdened households overlap
with some of the lowest household incomes in the city.
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Sources: City of Carlsbad, 2020; Mintier Harnish 2020; Regional Opportunity Index, 2014Revised: 12/24/2020
Village
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Sources: City of Carlsbad, 2020; Mintier Harnish 2020; Regional Opportunity Index, 2014Revised: 12/24/2020
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Christie Calderwood, Police Chief
Reid Shipley, Assistant Police Chief
March 4, 2025
Police Department Update
1
{ City of
Carlsbad
TODAY’S PRESENTATION
•Increasing population & housing units
•Crime trends & changing landscape
•Calls for service
•Response times
•Factors impacting workload
•Staffing challenges
•Staffing requests in future budget cycles
•Staffing justifications
•Impacts
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
2
{ City of
Carlsbad
PROPOSED ACTION
Receive an informational report on the current
state of the Police Department and proposed
next steps in the following five years.
3
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
Population
4
POPULATION & HOUSING INCREASES
11,000
visitors/ hotel guests
daily
(average)
63,000
workers
3,873
new housing units
by 2029
2024
115,000
2029
119,000
(estimated)
HOTEL
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
CRIME TRENDS
•Overall crime is down in Carlsbad
•5% increase in crimes against persons at mid-year 2024
•Crime trends require more time and resources:
•Organized burglaries
•Organized retail thefts
•Internet crimes against children
•Scams against the elderly
•Seizure of large amounts of narcotics
•Involved in 3 officer-involved shootings in 7
months
5
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
6
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Dispatched Calls
Officer Initiated Calls
911 Calls
CALLS FOR SERVICE
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
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7
90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
TOTAL CALLS FOR SERVICE
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
REPONSE TIMES
CY 2021 Actual CY 2022 Actual CY 2023 Actual CY 2024 Actual
Priority 1 Calls 4:49 5:07 6:17 6:45
Priority 2 Calls 9:17 10:54 14:00 17:45
Priority 3 Calls 42:13 48:45 32:56 45:31
Priority 4 Calls 25:45 28:59 29:24 38:47
*national average for Priority 1 calls is 6 minutes
8
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
WORKLOAD IMPACTS
•New legislation
•Technology advancements
•Professional partnership changes
•Departmental obligations
•Population increase & growth management
•Community requests
9
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
NEW LEGISLATION
•AB 953 - Racial and Identity Profiling Act (RIPA)
•AB 392 - Peace officers: Deadly Force
10
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS
•Body worn cameras
•Theft trackers
•License plate readers
•Home surveillance systems
•Find My Phone
•Apple AirTags
11
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
PROFESSIONAL PARTNERSHIP
CHANGES
•Vista Detention Facility changes
•Closing of Crisis Stabilization Unit at Tri-City
Hospital
•Two-officer response requirement at
Scripps Hospital
12
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
DEPARTMENTAL OBLIGATIONS
•Training standards
•Thorough and timely reporting
13
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
POPULATION INCREASE
14
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
2024
115,000
2029
119,000
(estimated)
11,000
visitors/ hotel
guests daily
(average)
HOTEL 3,873
new housing
units by 2029
COMMUNITY EVENTS &
REQUESTS
•Carlsbad Marathon, Street Faires, TGIF
Concerts, etc.
•HOA Meetings
•School presentations
15
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
STAFFING CHALLENGES
•Deployable numbers
•Department reorganization
•Impacts to service level
16
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
3-YEAR AVERAGE ANNUAL STAFFING
Authorized 132
Vacancies 5
Staffing 127
Out of Service 24.5
Deployable 102.5
17
Deployable
78%
Non-deployable
22%
{ City of
Carlsbad
2024 AVERAGE ANNUAL STAFFING
Injured 7
Modified 2
FMLA 1
Military 1.5
Other 1
Academy 4
Field Training 4
Out of Service 20.5
Authorized 132
Vacancies 4.5
Staffing 127.5
Out of Service 20.5
Deployable 107
18
Working
81%
Vacancies
3%
Leaves
9%
Other
1%
Academy
3%Field Training
3%
SWORN
•CSO to cover front desk
•HOT Sergeant to Training Sergeant
•Reduction of four “960” officers
•Juvenile Detective to Property Crimes
•CSO from Traffic to Investigations
•Unfilled positions in Crime Suppression Team
•Unfilled Motor Officer position
DEPARTMENT REORGANIZATION
19
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
IMPACTS
•Increased response times
•Overall service level
•Reactive vs. proactive
•Recruitment & retention
20
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
•Developed over the past year
•Will be proposed during each budget cycle
•Will be reviewed annually to reflect changes
in law enforcement/community
expectations
21
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad
POTENTIAL STAFFING NEEDS
IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS
•Police Officers
•Special Events Sergeant
•ICAC Detective
•Digital Forensic Specialist
•PSSB Sergeant
•Senior Office Specialists
•Community-oriented policing team
•Property & Evidence
Supervisor
•Communications
Operators
22
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
FY 2025-26 STAFFING REQUEST TO
BE SUBMITTED TO CITY MANAGER
•(3) Police Officers
•(1) Special Events Sergeant
•(1) ICAC Detective
•(1) Digital Forensic Specialist
23
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
STAFFING JUSTIFICATIONS
3 POLICE OFFICERS
•Help with patrol staffing and ability to fill
other positions
•Improve response times
•Better able to address quality of life issues
•Improve member wellness with less OT
requirements
24
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
STAFFING JUSTIFICATIONS
SPECIAL EVENTS SERGEANT
•Recent national incidents reinforce need for
special event security
•40 annual special events
•Traffic Division span of control is 12:1
•250-400 traffic complaints annually
25
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
STAFFING JUSTIFICATIONS
ICAC DETECTIVE
•Cases involving child sexual abuse and online
exploitation
•Currently handled by our Child Abuse Detective
•Current open cases: 74
•80-100 reports requiring review at all times
26
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
STAFFING JUSTIFICATIONS
DIGITAL FORENSIC SPECIALIST
•Most cases have some form of digital evidence
•Specialized field requiring ongoing training to
keep up with legal/technological changes
•Allow for timely investigation of critical cases
•Currently required to utilize regional lab that
has extensive delays
27
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
EFFECT ON INTERNAL PARTNERS
•Human Resources
•City Attorney’s Office
•IT
•Fleet
28
ITEM 8: POLICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE
{ City of
Carlsbad