HomeMy WebLinkAbout1988-05-18; Planning Commission; ; COMMENTS ON SANDAG DRAFT REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS)
D
STAFF REPORT
DATE: MAY 18, 1988
TO: PLANNING COMMISSION
FROM: PLANNING DEPARTMENT
SUBJECT: COMMENTS ON SANDAG DRAFT REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT
RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATION
It is recommended that the Planning Commission accept the
SANDAG report on Regional Growth Management Recommendations
and forward staff's comments and any additional Planning
Commission comments to the City Council.
DISCUSSION
On February 26, 1988 the SANDAG Board of Directors authorized
distribution to member agencies of the Draft Regional Growth
Management Recommendations for review and discussion. The
SANDAG report is attached and it contains five
recommendations as follows:
1. Adopt the Series VII Population Forecast
2010) and the first five years (1989-1994)
Seven Housing Unit Forecast as policies
permit activity by each jurisdiction.
(to the year
of the Series
for building
2. Enact ( in its final form) the "Sensitive Lands
Initiative" currently being imposed in the City of San
Diego and unincorporated areas of the county, as a
coordinated and consistent policy for preserving
sensitive and natural resource lands in all
jurisdictions.
3. Authorize development of new coordinated policies for
financing regional serving public facilities and
resources.
4. Authorize development of a regional strategy to promote
a better balance of population with employment
opportunities in the regions communities.
5. Authorize a comprehensive regional growth monitoring and
annual reporting system that would address: regional
resource quality and availability, and growth impacts
upon the San Diego region. •
MAY 18, 1988
SAHDAG
PAGE 2
Recommendations 3, 4 and 5 involve authorization from the
SANDAG Board to do additional .work in studying regional
programs and strategies and therefore do not involve policy
decisions at this time. Regarding recommendations 1 and 2,
SANDAG is requesting that all member jurisdictions accept
these as policies to better manage and coordinate growth on a
regional basis. It is staff's belief that the overall goal
of coordinating the management of growth throughout San Diego
County is needed and, as such, Recommendations 1 and 2 are a
positive initial step in that direction.
Recommendation 1 would use the housing unit forecast as
identified in the Series 7 Population Forecasts for the next
five years as policy for a jurisdiction's share of building
permit activity. For Carlsbad, this would equate to 6,438
dwelling units or an average of 1,288 dwelling units
annually. There would be no penalty or sanctions if the
share was not met or exceeded.
• Although Carlsbad uses yearly dwelling unit projections in
our Growth Management Program, the objective of our program
is to equate the amount of growth to the need · for public
facilities. As a result, the City has adopted a strict
Growth Management Program which contains specific facility
performance standards which must be maintained at all times
in order to allow growth to occur. The recommendations being
made by SANDAG do not address the impacts of growth, but only
the number of residential units being built by each
jurisdiction. In terms of this recommendation's effect on
Carlsbad's program, it will have none other than just
formally confirming the dwelling unit projections that staff
already uses as a planning tool. There are however numerous
cities in the county which do not have specific growth
management programs and this could be a first effort in
getting their cooperation in Regional Growth Management.
Staff would recommend that the City make a recommendation to
the SANDAG Board of Directors that the next step in this
process might be for communities to agree on specific public
facility performance standards which all jurisdictions must
adhere to. As a starting point staff would recommend the
acceptance of a transportation standard or a circulation
standard similar to the one adopted in the City's Growth
Management Program.
MAY 18, 1988
SANDAG
PAGE 3
In terms of the second recommendation by SANDAG, the City of
Carlsbad currently has as part of its Growth Management Plan,
numerous provisions which protect sensitive lands in the
City. Those ordinances and policies adopted by the City
Council actually appear to exceed the requirements of the
sensitive lands initiative. staff is recommending that the
City Council urge other cities to adopt similar policies to
the City of Carlsbad or that of the sensitive lands
initiative.
Attachment:
Draft Regional Growth Management Recommendations
arb
San Diego
ASSOCIATION OF
GOVERNMENTS
Suite 524, Sec:uritY Pacific Plaze
1200 Third Avenu..
San Diego, California 92101
(6191236-5300 April 7, 1988
The SANDAG Board of Directors authorized distribution of the Draft Regional
Growth Management Recommendations at their meeting of February Z6, 1988. In
their action, the Board clarified the staff recommendation to emphasize that the
Growth Management Recommendations were being distributed for "review and
discussion" at this time, and that staff would return to the Board in June 1988 with
local reaction and, hopefully, a consensus on the Recommendations. The Board also
agreed that staff should initiate a round of meetings with the member jurisdictions
and other interested parties to discuss the Recommendations. The Board further
directed that staff continue to analyze the application and impacts of policies
designed to limit the future size of the region so that those options would be more
clearly understood if a point in time were reached when these types of growth
controls were being actively considered.
SANDAG would appreciate your review of these recommendations and encourage
your comments. Please address them to:
Rick Alexander, Director
Land Use and Public Facilities
San Diego Association of Governments
12.00 Third Avenue, Suite 52.4
San Diego, CA 92.101
Comments will be most helpful if received by May 2.7, 1988.
MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar, El Cajon, Encinitas, Escondido, Imperial Beach, La Mesa.
Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside. Powav. ~1-1n n;..,.,,.., c ..... u-----"· -•---• -
San Diego Auociation of Governments
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
February Z6, 1988
DRAFT REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT
RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
AGENDA REPORT No.: R-17b
This report introduces a set of draft regional growth management recommenda-
tions. These proposals are the result of the staff's analysis of growth management
issues and options, and its participation with the member jurisdictions on their
growth programs since February 1987. The recommendations are intended to
provide a cooperative public policy framework so that local growth management
plans and policies can be coordinated effectively to the benefit of each city, the
County, and the region. They also are an attempt to develop a consensus on growth
management policy among local jurisdictions, community leaders, and the public (as
reflected in public opinion surveys). The basic objective of the recommendations is
to facilitate wise management of the region's growth so that people's needs are
met, quality public facilities are available for their use, and the region's rich envir-
onmental resources are permanently protected.
The recommendations rely in part ·on results of analyses conducted on the "carrying
capacity" of the region as represented by six regional commodities, resources or
types of infrastructure. Shortages or degradation of several resources or facilities
currently exist, or will beyond the year 2000. These problems could alter or in-
fluence the region's growth rate over either the short or long term, The analysis
presents a set of findings on these effects and how these conclusions lead to new
growth management policies. "Carrying capacity" is evaluated for (1) water avail-
ability; (2) sewerage capacity; (3) solid waste disposal capacity; (4) air quality; (5)
transportation system adequacy; and (6) energy availability, The resultant findings
support the conclusion that new growth management policies should be considered.
The report concludes with an expanded discussion of the draft growth management
recommendations. The recommendations are:
1. Adopt the Series 7 population forecasts ( to 2010) and the first five years (1989-
1994) of the Series 7 housing unit forecasts as policies for building permit
activity by each jurisdiction.
2. Enact (in its final form) the "Sensitive Lands Initiative" currently being pro-
posed in the City of San Diego and the unincorporated area of the County, as a
coordinated and consistent policy for preserving sensitive and natural resource
lands in all jurisdictions.
3. Authorize development of new coordinated policies for financing region-
serving public facilities and resources.
. 4. Authorize development of a regional strategy to promote a better balance of
population with employment opportunities in the region's communities.
5. Authorize a comprehensive regional growth monitoring and annual reporting
system that would address: regional resource quality and availability, and
growth's impacts on the San Diego region.
It is my
RECOMMENDATION
that, based on the findings relative to the carrying capacity in the San Diego region
and the considerable public interest in regional growth management, the Board of
Directors of the San Diego Association of Governments accept this report on Draft
Regional Growth Management Recommendations for distribution to (1) the local
jurisdictions for review and consideration for adoption; and (Z) the City of San
Diego's Citizens' Advisory Committee on Growth and Development and the County
of San Diego's Regional Growth and Planning Review Task Force for review and
consideration for recommendation to their respective governing bodies. The staff
should also schedule briefings with member jurisdiction councils and the Board of
Supervisors on these findings and recommendations.
Discussion
This report on the carrying capacities and draft growth management recommen-
. dations for the region is based on a year's work in SANDAG's cooperative growth
management evaluation project with the County and City of San Diego. The
County's Reg-ional Growth and Planning Review Task Force and the City's Citizens'
Advisory Committee on Growth and Development will present growth policy rec-
ommendations relative to existing plans and policies to the Board of Supervisors and
City Council in late Spring. SANDAG's efforts in assisting these groups and other
interested jurisdictions in the region include conducting public opinion surveys on
attitudes toward growth; evaluating the costs of regional infrastructure and other
public facility implications of future growth; identifying and analyzing the impor-
tant external and internal factors which cause the region to grow; coordinating and
monitoring grow th management strategies and activities among the region's 19
jurisdictions; and examining possible methods for financing regional public facilities
and resources.
In addition, this report provides the basis and demonstrates the need for develop-
ment of short-term growth management policies to allow workable planning and
management of the growth that will inevitably come to the region. Development of
new public policy recommendations to help manage and finance long-term growth is
included as well as the long term, continuous monitoring of the region's growth.
Monitoring the growth of Southern California and Baja California will enable the
region to determine when its share of those regional resources and commodities
might be constrained, and to respond appropriately.
The following is a summary of the analysis of the carrying capacities for the six
categories listed above:
.1. WATER AVAILABILITY
Areas of Southern California receiving their primary water supplies from the
Metropolitan Water District (MWD) and the San Diego County Water Authority
( CW A) could experience shortages between now and 2000, and beyond, partic-
ularly if California and the Colorado River basin have periods of below average
precipitation during those years.
• Z. SEWERAGE CAPACITY
The North County has current sewage capacity to accommodate growth until
about 2005. The San Diego Metro System, however, requires an expansion of
its treatment capacities now as it is converted to a secondary level of treat-
ment to accommodate growth •.
3. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL CAPACITY
Solid waste disposal capacity will be exceeded in the next ten years unless
major new facilities are successfully sited and recycling programs initiated in
the region's urban areas.
4. AIR QUALITY
Although the region's air quality has improved, the San Diego air basin is not
currently in compliance with federal standards for air quality.
5. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ADEQUACY
The recent growth in automobile travel has had a significant impact on the
region's freeway system. Projects proposed over the next 19 years will main-
tain mobility in the region by providing additional transit and highway facilities
in the most heavily congested corridors. Transit access in 2005 will be signifi-
cantly better than it is today; highway access, however, will be somewhat
worse. The region's airport system will be at its capacity in 2005, and major
new facilities will be required if growth beyond that time is to be accom-
modated.
6. ENERGY
The region's energy supply infrastructure will have to be significantly expanded
in order to meet growth expected by 2005. The need for new infrastructure
will be particularly critical in meeting the growing demand for peak electric
supply. The region will need to add 970 MW of peak electric power to balance
demand and supply, and there are currently no identified sources for the power.
CONCLUSION
It is clear that regional resources and the region's ability to accommodate growth
will be impacted by strains placed on those resources by projected growth.
Shortages or constraints will occur in several major regional resource areas
including transportation, water availability, and peak energy supply. Furthermore,
the costs of providing necessary facilities for solid waste and sewage disposal are
high. Attaining federal air quality standards and maintaining those standards will
be costly and will require changes in travel behavior of the region's residents.
3
Shortages of regional commodities such as power and water would affect the ulti-
mate size of the region; transportation system congestion or continued air quality
problems probably would not. But for the reasons stated and the concerns evi-
denced by growth management actions of many of the jurisdictions in the region
and the concern over growth demonstrated by public surveys and current citizens
initiatives, new growth management policies on a regional level should be con-
sidered.
These recommendations do not call for actions to arbitrarily reduce the region's
future population growth. The actions would, however, assure accommodation of
forecast growth at a historically manageable rate for the next five years. This rate
would be less than that of the rapid growth period since 1983.
Simultaneously, SANDAG and local governments should cooperate to monitor
regional and local growth and its environmental and economic impacts. It is pos-
sible that within the next ten years new findings on regional carrying capacity will
cause a re-evaluation of a strategy of accommodating growth at a manageable rate,
and consideration of policies to reduce the region's long-term growth rate will be
necessary. This is not the case at the current time, however. The following section
of this report describes a set of draft growth management recommendations which
could be utilized by the region's jurisdictions as elements of a cooperative regional
growth management strategy.
ACTION 1
EACH JURISDICTION SHOULD ADOPT: (a) THE SERIES 7 POPULATION FORE-
CASTS (TO 2010), AND THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (1989-1994) OF THE SERIES 7
HOUSING UNIT FORECASTS AS POLICIES FOR BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY.
Why Undertake This Action?
The need to establish a consensus on a manageable rate of regional growth, and how
the region's jurisdictions would share that growth, has emerged as a primary issue
at the regional level. The region's growth rate from 1983-87 (an average of 61,000
persons per year/about 3.1%) has taxed the ability of governmental agencies to
meet environmental and facility provision demands, accelerated crowding of public
and private facilities, and generated growth management policy actions by 13 of
the region's 19 general purpose agencies in response to public interest in "doing
something about rapid growth."
The Regional Growth Forecasts represent the amount of growth the region is likely
to have, based on a combination of local, state, and national demographic and
economic trends. Since 1972 the Forecasts have accurately predicted the region's
total growth. An average year of these forecasts represents a growth rate that
public and private entities have traditionally been able to deal with; and one in
which environmental and economic safeguards need not be exceeded. By adopting
the dwelling unit totals developed in the Forecasts, for a five year period, and using
these as public policies to guide building permit activity, cities and the County
accommodate a normal share of future regional growth, but at a rate that avoids
adverse economic and environmental impacts and does not impose artificial caps on
local housing development. There are other reasons to take this action:
4
o The action represents a timely, coordinated, and pro-active response by the
local jurisdictions to growth pressures.
o It enables clear understanding of the interjurisdictional impacts of each com-
munity's growth and forecloses the necessity to consider defensive local ordi-
nances.
o It gives local agencies the flexibility to take advantage of the housing market
and market condition changes over a five-year period.
o It demonstrates that local jurisdictions are accepting a share of regional
growth based on a cooperatively prepared forecast. Consequently, the action
should help local agencies avoid growth-related litigation.
o The action enables cities and the County to accurately forecast the five-year
need for public facilities and to better phase the financing and development of
facilities.
o The action avoids artificial caps on local housing development. SANDAG
research has shown that individual jurisdiction housing caps have no effect on
regional growth, tend to cause a local disproportion of employment and housing
mix unless coupled with job reductions, and have adverse social impacts by
limiting availability of new and used housing. Limiting housing availabililty
drives up prices and rents, and those increases are felt disproportionately
across the population.
o The action provides jurisdictions with a tool to coordinate building permit
activity with local general and community plans, and to integrate public
facilities and other improvements.
How the Action Could Be Implemented
Each jurisdiction would adopt a total number of dwelling units for the five-year
period from 1989-1994 based on the Series 7 Forecasts for those years. The Fore.:.
casts, which predict occupied housing, would be adjusted upward for vacancy
rates. Table 1 includes 1987 data for each jurisdiction and housing completion and
authorization data for 1986, a year of very rapid population growth. The table also
shows the 1989-94 dwelling unit totals from preliminary Series 7 and the five year
and annual activity allocations which the jurisdictions would be asked to consider.
Table 4 describes recent, historic, and forecast growth of housing.
5
Jurisdiction Janua!'.I 11 19871
Total
Total Dwelling
Po2ulation Units
Carlsbad 55,282 23,277
Chula Vista 120,288 45,101
Coronado 24,704 8,890
Del Mar 5,044 2,634
El Cajon 82,940 33,666
Encinitas 51,341 19,961
Escondido 86,863 36,155
Imperial Beach 25,138 9,070
La Mesa 51,531 23,467
Lemon Grove 22,456 8,471
National City 54,735 14,989
Oceanside 100,981 41,769
Poway 39,168 12,612
San Diego l,OZZ,395 401,570
San Marcos 23,247 9,179
Santee 50,178 17,678
Solana Beach 14,973 6,245
Vista 50,937 20,470
Unincorporated Area 358,449 120,341
Regional Total 2,240,650 855,545
Sources:
TABLE I
INFORMATION PERTINENT TO THE
DRAFT HOUSING POLICY
1986 1989-94
Building Activity Series 7
Occupied
Com2.1 Auth.2 Dwelling Vacancy
Units Rate(%)
2,624 2,565 6,065 5.8
1,130 2,075 2,617 4.0
168 62 386 17.8
21 22 40 11.6
835 728 1,153 4.7
1,075 N/A 2,000 5.4
3,440 3,402 5,900 5.8
206 335 514 6.7
47 84 696 4.5
386 327 531 5.4
178 213 338 2.0
2,104 2,351 7,320 9.3
336 744 1,512 3.4
15,228 19,180 39,660 5.2
586 1,843 1,782 10.4
613 301 2,092 4.1
300 N/A 290 10.1
1,471 1,754 2,426 7.3
4,617 7,575 21,331 9.0
35,365 43,561 96,653 6.6
1. January I, 1987 figures and 1986 completions from SANDAG's POPEST System
Z. 1986 Authorizations from the Chamber of Commerce's Annual Permit Summary Report
3. The Total Dwelling Units column is derived by multiplying "occupied dwelling units"
by the "vacancy rate" and adding the product to the "occupied dwelling units" figure.
1989-94
Draft Housing
Permit Poli!:! 1994
Total Average
Dwellijg Annual Household Total
Units Dwelling Units Size Po2ulation
6,438 1,288 2.41 75,941
2,725 545 2.62 125,213
469 94 2.16 25,019
45 9 2.11 5,104
1,209 242 2.39 84,301
2,114 423 2.52 55,932
6,263 1,253 2.40 103,637
551 110 2.67 26,323
729 146 2.20 54,236
562 112 2.53 23,430
345 69 2.82 55,756
8,067 1,613 2.46 127,431
1,564 313 Z.87 43,815
41,829 8,366 2.42 1,143,219
1,988 398 2.53 28,642
Z,181 436 2.73 57,635
322 64 2~47 15,045
2,617 523 2.48 56,730
23,453 4,691 2.69 433,575
103,472 Z0,69' 2.56 Z,540,982
Total1 Total2
Dwelling Dwelling
Units Units
1970 1984
450,798 763,085
1. U.S. Census, 4/1/70
TABLE 2
INCREASE IN HOUSING SUPPLY
SAN DIEGO REGION
1970-2010
Total2 • Average
Dwelling Annual
Units Change
1987 1970-87
855,545 24,164
2. Estimated 1/1/84 and 1/1/87
Series 7 •
Average Average
Annual Annual
Change Change
1984-87 1986-2010
30,820 19,546
Each jurisdiction would be responsible for allocating the total units throughout the
five-year time period as demand or public policy dictates. This gives the oppor-
tunity to let the private market adjust to interest rate and market cycles. It is also
useful for predominantly developed communities that have large new projects or
major redevelopment projects only every few years. The annual averages, which
are based on General and Community Plans, indicate about how much housing
constitutes a jurisdiction's share of anticipated five-year growth and its housing
needs. They are by no means, however, performance standards that need to be met
in any one year.
ACTION 2
ENACT (IN ITS FINAL FORM) THE "SENSITIVE LANDS INITIATIVE" CURRENTLY
BEING PROPOSED IN THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO AND THE UNINCORPORATED
AREA OF THE COUNTY, AS A COORDINATED AND CONSISTENT POLICY FOR
PRESERVING SENSITIVE AND NATURAL RESOURCE LANDS.
Why Undertake This Action?
Behind transportation problems, the public perceives the change in the region's face
as the most disagreeable impact of rapid growth. Develoment of slopes and flood-
plains, loss of sensitive lands, excessive grading, habitat clearing, and view
encroachment are mentioned most often as adverse impacts. Every jurisdiction has
requirements for dedication of related open space concurrent with development,
and many have overlay zones or other regulations to protect specific resource
areas. However, coordinated and consistent policies on a regionwide basis would
more effectively respond to the public's concern. Enactment of a common final
version of the Sensitive Lands Initiative by all 19 jurisdictions would have several
distinct advantages.
o The action would create consistent local policies for dealing with open space
and sensitive lands, which would be valuable to both public agencies and the
development community.
7
o The action uses as a model a document designed by a citizens group in response
to strongly held citizen opinion.
o Consistent sensitive lands policies enable local agencies to plan more effec-
tively for important river corridors and other contiguous open space areas
which cross jurisdictional boundaries. Cooperative plans such as the one cur-
rently being prepared for the San Dieguito Valley would be much easier to
prepare and implement.
o Coordinated policies to protect habitat, wetlands, and other threatened
resource areas will help resolve conflicts between proposed public improve-
ments and endangered species and habitat loss regulations of state and federal
agencies.
o The action would preserve irreplaceable resources which are important contri-
butions to the region's quality of life. Additionally, implementation of conser-
vation policies can focus public and private sector resources on sensitive lands
in ways which benefit all involved parties.
How the Action Would be Implemented
The Sensitive Lands Initiative petition is currently being circulated by an environ-
mental interest group called San Diegans for Managed Growth. The group's current
intention is to place the Initiative on the ballot in November 1988 in San Diego and
the unincorporated area of the County. A synopsis of the Initiative follows this
section. It is not currently known whether or not the initiative process will be
pursued in the other cities, if some jurisdictions will choose to enact the Initiative
through local ordinance, or if the Initiative will be modified as a result of nego-
tiation between the proponents and local governments. In any case, the Initiative is
a reasonable basis for a coordinated regional policy and in its final form the cities
and County would benefit from uniformly enacting it.
In response to enactment, SANDAG would undertake a project as part of the Re-
gional Open Space Plan to cooperate with the jurisdictions to identify and map
lands subject to the initiative, resolve any definitional or resource questions, and
monitor the sensitive lands resource regionally.
Summary of Sensitive Lands Initiative
This initiative is currently being circulated in both the City of San Diego and un-
incorporated portions of the County to qualify for the November ballot. The
specifics of these two initiatives are:
o Creation of a Resource Conservation Overlay Zone based on an inventory of all
sensitive lands including, at a minimum, wetlands, floodplains, steep hillsides
and canyon slopes, critical habitats, areas of native vegetation, and significant
archaeological or historical sites.
o Specific regulations/permits for any activity within this Overlay Zone, with the
following permitted uses for each category.
8
Wetlands -aquaculture, scientific, educational or recreational uses if not
harmful to the ecosystem; restoration projects; essential public service
projects or water~ependent public facilities if no viable alternatives exist,
with mitigation measures resulting in a net gain in functional wetlands;
Wetland Buffers -access paths, improvements necessary to protect adjacent
wetlands and/or health, safety and general welfare;
Floodplains -agriculture, low intensity recreational uses; grading and filling of
floodplains in public ownership for essential public facilities if no viable alter-
natives exist providing mitigation results in a net gain in functional wetlands
and riparian habitat; no permanent structures, fill or grading for purposes
other than habitat restoration will be allowed.
Steep Slopes -one residential unit per .96 acre (40,000 square feet) on ZS%
slopes; one unit per 10 acres on 50%+ slopes; limits encroachments on sliding
scale based on steepness of slope for specific public projects if no viable alter-
natives exist, based upon public hearing and finding by Planning Director that
such encroachment is consistent with intent and purposes of this Initiative.
ACTION 3
AUTHORIZE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COORDINATED POLICIES FOR FINAN-
CING REGION-SERVING PUBLIC FACILITIES AND RESOURCES.
Why Undertake This Action?
At this meeting the Board of Directors will begin discussing financing some
selected categories of public facilities and desirable public resources at the
regional level. The companion report points out that there are several types of
facilities which are provided regionally and could potentially be financed all or in
part, more effectively through a regional source. These public facilities could
include sewage treatment, transportation, courts and jails, solid waste manage-
ment, public schools, and others; development and acquisition of regional resources
such as open space or low income housing could also be financed at the regional
level.
The Board is requested to authorize staff to complete a feasibility analysis of
regional financing and develop draft policies during FY 1988-89 as a part of the
Overall Work Program (OWP). The policies would have to address:
o Identification of facility financing options equitable to new and existing resi-
dents.
o Lack of money for both capital and operating costs.
o Financing open space acquisition.
o Pooling the agencies' ability to finance needed improvements.
o Encourage public/private partnership and innovation in developing regional
facilities.
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ACTION 4
AUTHORIZE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL STRATEGY TO PROMOTE A
BETTER BALANCE OF POPULATION WITH EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN
THE REGION'S COMMUNITIES.
Why Undertake This Action?
Since the adoption of the first Regional Transportation Plan in 1974, the concept of
economically balanced communities has been considered an important way to
mitigate adverse impacts of population growth. Recent research has also cor-
roborated the dominant role that employment and job creation have in regional
growth.
The Series 7 forecasts show that the character of work trips in the region is
changing as residential development and employment centers grow farther apart.
The San Dieguito River crosses I-5 in north Del Mar and I-15 at Lake Hodges. If an
imaginary line were drawn between these two points, one out of every four people
living north of the line commute south of it to their place of employment; in 1985,
about 83,500 daily trips on the two freeways. By 2010, this ratio becomes slightly
larger and the actual number of trips increases to 164,500 per day.
This increase in the number and length of work trips has obvious implications for air
quality and energy consumption as well as freeway congestion. Better economic
balance of communities would positively address this growing problem but should
also address other existing problems including uncoordinated and potentially un-
productive expenditure of local money on industrial land development and an over-
abundance of industrially zoned land in certain parts of the region. On this last
point, Series 7 shows that over the next 25 years the region can expect to develop
about 350 industrial acres per year. In 2010, however, an inventory of 10,500
industrial acres remains vacant and unused.
As with Action 3, the Board is requested to authorize a job as part of the OWP that
will focus on drafting a set of coordinated actions which local jurisdictions could
take to improve the ability of residents to live and work in the same community.
The job will also develop a methodology to better balance economic development
and industrial land creation with housing growth.
ACTION 5
AUTHORIZE A COMPREHENSIVE REGIONAL GROWTH MONITORING AND
ANNUAL REPORTING SYSTEM THAT WOULD ADDRESS: REGIONAL RE-
SOURCE QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY; AND GROWTH'S IMPACTS ON THE SAN
DIEGO REGION.
Why Undertake This Action?
If the region's jurisdictions decide to adopt policies to cooperatively manage future
growth, an annual monitoring and reporting system will be necessary. Regular
reporting to the Board of Directors would enable the jurisdictions to actively
monitor changes in the growth rate, economic and demographic trends, and both
interjurisdictional and extra-regional impacts of growth. Successful management
of the region's future growth requires a balance of policies which simultaneously
10
control some activites . related to growth while encouraging others. Economic,
environmental, social, and other impacts may be either negative or positive and
only regular monitoring and reporting allows elected officials to be aware of these
trends and assures the public that growth management issues are being actively
addressed.
The Board's action on this item is to authorize inclusion of the monitoring process
as an expansion to the FY89 OWP. The regional growth management monitoring
and reporting process would evaluate two distinct areas of interest and concern on
at least an annual basis:
Regional Resource Quality and Availability
Annual monitoring of energy and water availability
Continued monitoring/forecasting of air quality standards attainment
Annual updating of regional infrastructure cost and regional ability to
pay
Preservation/development of open space and sensitive lands.
Growth of the five Southern California counties and Tijuana compared to
regional resource quality and availability
Growth of the San Diego Region
Dwelling unit approval/development consistency with Series 7 (moni-
toring of Action 1)
Commercial and industrial floor space approval/development .. as a
measure of job creation
Changes in employment and housing ratios in the region's subareas
Impacts of growth management policies
-Regular evaluation of the Regional Growth Forecasts.
ACTIONS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR 1988
In the process of studying regional growth and its potential for effective manage-
ment, the County, cities and SANDAG have identified a number of possible strat-
egies which are not recommended for action. It may be necessary to review these
or other actions in the future, as is discussed in the section of this report on
carrying capacities, if it becomes clear that it is necessary to reduce the ultimate
population of the region. The need is not clear at the current time.
o Housing Caps Are Not Recommended
Housing caps which are intended to reduce the ultimate size of the region's
population are directed at a symptom of growth rather than a cause. In addi-
tion to the adverse housing supply, cost, and unequal economic impacts already
• discussed, the long-term effects of artificial housing caps on other social and
economic factors of the region are poorly understood. Additionally, housing
caps need to be extremely restrictive if they are to have a noticeable impact.
In the "Causes of Growth" report released by SANDAG in September 1987, it
was shown that using residential supply controls alone in order to slow growth
to a rate similar to that of California (about 34,300 persons per year),. new
housing would have to be limited to 5,000 units per year. Series 7 forecasts
that an average of about 20,400 units will be built each year between 1985 and
11
2010. Of these homes, 5,900 units per year will be needed to house the off-
spring of the Z.4 million people already here and would be required if no new
migrants entered the region over the next twenty-five years.
o Employment Development Restrictions Are Not Recommended
If reduction of the future size in the growth rate became necessary, restric-
tions on employment development would be the single most effective means to
achieve this. The "Causes of Growth" report showed that 60% of the region's
population growth is directly attributable to in-migration associated with the
creation of new jobs. Creation of jobs is, however, the result of a robust
economy and in the public opinion survey and subsequent discussions with
community leaders, there was no interest in job growth restrictions in the
region or in limits on commercial and industrial floor space.
Perhaps most importantly, the positive or negative impacts of this type of
economic manipulation are not well understood. Data are not readily available
on the amount of employment growth needed to assure a viable regional
economy, and how job reductions cut across social and economic components of
the community are not known.
POTENTIAL COMPLEMENTARY ACTIONS
Other growth management strategies were suggested that could be reviewed at a
future date and which could complement the recommended set of cooperative
regional actions. They include:
o Coordination of local development ·and infrastructure financing fees among the
general purpose agencies.
o Similar coordination of the process and procedures to modify general and
community plans.
o Continuation of the process to develop and adopt consistent regional policies
on urban development which occurs on the periphery of existing cities, and on
development of new non-contiguous communities.
o Development of a process for coordinating growth and impacts research among
the five Southern California counties.
Executive Director
lZ
A TT A CHM ENT 1
This attachment provides additional detail to the carrying capacity analysis
included in the discussion section of this report.
1. WATER AVAILABILITY
Areas of southern California receiving their primary water supplies from the
Metropolitan Water District (MWD) and the San Diego County Water Authority
( CW A) could experience shortages between now and ZOOO, and beyond, partic-
ularly if California and the Colorado River basin have periods of below average
precipitation during those years. Data published by both Metropolitan and the
Authority support this conclusion.
Existing Conditions
The CWA and MWD are independent agencies, and although the Authority
receives almost all of its water from the larger provider, the two organizations
prepare independent forecasts of water availability in their respective service
areas. Interpolation of the data contained in Table 1 for 2.005 shows a poten-
tial shortage of 770,000 acre feet, 19% of MWD's forecast demand. This
amount of water would serve a population of 3,500,000.
Table 2., derived from data provided by CW A, quantifies this region's shallow
.water resources, showing the San Diego region's demands roughly equal to
available supplies.
TABLE 1
COMPARISON OF EXISTING DEPENDABLE WATER
SUPPLIES WITH DEMANDS FOR SERVICE AREA OF .
METRO POLIT AN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
(IN MILLION A.F.)
Existing Water SuEElies 1980 1990 2000
Local Surface and Groundwater 1.19 1.19 1.19
Wastewater Reuse 0.14 0.15 0.15
Imported
Los Angeles Aqueducts 0.4Z 0.4Z 0.4Z
Colorado River 1.16 0.47 0.47
State Water Project 1.09 1.18 1.16
TOTAL 4.00 3.41 3.39
Historical and Projected Z.95 3.53 3.95
Water Demands
Su!J?lUs (or Eotential shortages) 1.05 (0.1 Z) (0.56).
in Supplies
1
2010
1.19
0.15
0.42
0.47
1.14
3.37
4.35
(0.98)
TABLE 2
PROJECTED WATER DEMAND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WATER AUTHORITY SERVICE AREA
(in Acre Feet/year)
Agricultural Total Imported Water Water Surplus
Year Urban Demand Demand Demand Projection* (Deficit)
1985-6 453,550 112,000 565,550
1995 551,650 115,000 666,650 676,650 9,000
2000 594,150 125,000 719,150 719,150
2005 633,680 120,000 753,680 756,080 2,400
2010 673,200 115,000 788,200 793,000 4,800
*Includes an assumed local production of 20,000 acre feet per year.
2005 Conditions
CW A forecasts a potential surplus of water for our region in 2005 of about
2,400 acre feet, only enough water to supply 11,000 persons for one year,
.003% of the . total population in that year.
It is unusual, though not unheard of in this country, for a large metropolitan
area to have this much uncertainty about its existing and future water supply.
The root cause of the uncertainty, of course, is the area's need to import most
of its supply. The San Diego region is, naturally, a coastal desert. At our
current rate of use, if we had to live on our own water production, the area
could accommodate only about 150,000 people. Furthermore, CW A's projec-
tions of demand presented in Table 2 are predicated on maintaining our water
use at the current level of .22 acre feet per person per year. In fact, our per
capita water use has been increasing generally since 1959, and has gone up in
• each of the past four years. Maintaining a use level of .22 through 2005 pre-
sumes that people will improve their water conservation practices almost
immediately and that many will change their home and business landscaping.
Southern Californians traditionally have ignored water issues, preferring to
leave them to the "water people." Obviously, the "water people" at agencies
such as MWD and CWA have done a good job: the water has always been there
when we turn on the tap. However, we would be making a mistake merely to
assume that alternative sources of supply will necessarily be available to make
up for future shortages in imported water. The water supply agencies need
support now both locally and in Sacramento.
Alternatives/Mitigation
At the local level, water conservation can be increased to help mitigate short-
ages. Approximately one-half of the region's municipal/industrial water is used
for outdoor activities, such as landscape maintenance. Use of xeriscaping,
native or drought-resistant plants, is the most effective method of reducing
outdoor water use. Local jurisdictions will eventually mandate the use of
drought-tolerant plants in new landscaping. Drought tolerant landscaping can
be as attractive and functional as high water using vegetation.
Wastewater reclamation could produce a significant "new" supply, and the
region should increase its use as a substitute for imported water wherever
possible. Reclamation might ultimately be mandated for certain uses, partic-
ularly outdoor irrigation of large areas.
An ongoing, cooperative effort involving the League of California Cities, the
County Supervisors Association of California, the California Councils of Gov-
ernments, the Southern California Water Committee, and others is needed to
develop consensus on water policy which would be recognized by the State
Administration and the Legislature as the direction water management should
take. Following that consensus, water development and management programs
are needed.
2.. SEWERAGE CAPACITY
The North County has current sewage capacity to accommodate growth until
about 2.005. The San Diego Metro System, however, requires an expansion of
its treatment capacity now to accommodate growth as it is converted to
provide a secondary level of treatment.
Existing Conditions
Sewage collection and treatment service is provided by 38 different agencies
throughout the urbanized areas of the region. Historically, additional service
agencies have been created as the need arises~ The largest agency is the San
Diego Metropolitan Sewerage System (Metro) which currently serves more than
seventy percent of the region's population through 15 member agencies. The
Metro system operates the region's largest sewage treatment plant, located at
Point Loma. Current daily flows at the plant are about 165 million gallons per
day (mgd). Metro was designed to ultimately treat 234 mgd but has installed
facilities to treat only about 120 mgd. Metro's discharge permit allows the
additional flow to be treated as long as ocean water quality standards are met
and other specific steps are taken, Metro's current National Pollutant Dis-
charge Elimination System (NPDES) permit issued by the Regional Water
Quality Control Board in March 1985 expires in 1988, when new federal dis-
charge requirements will be in effect. The City of San Diego is currently
involved in the planning and design of new treatment facilities that would
accommodate both the projected need and the federal and state water quality
standards.
Three other agencies operate treatment plants with ocean outfalls: Oceanside,
Encina and San Elijo. They have a combined capacity of 69 mgd. Together,
the four facilities have a current design capacity of approximately 303 mgd,
and serve some 93% of the region's households. Flows in 1986 were 207 mgd.
New federal water quality standards require secondary treament and all four
outfalls have committed to making this expensive conversion. Encina has
already installed secondary treatment and both Oceanside and San Elijo can
accommodate the additional facilities at their existing sites. Metro, however,
cannot and will be required to construct a new plant(s) at a separate site(s).
3
2.005 Conditions
By 2.00S the four systems will be required to provide total treatment capacity
• of 2.73 mgd; 199 mgd at Metro. Upgrading to secondary treatment will allow
the rather small (5 mgd) additional capacity needed by the North County plants
to be developed. Metro, however, intends to expand to 2.40 mgd of actual
capacity at one or more sites. The 314 mgd of total capacity would serve the
region well beyond 2.005; however, development of time consuming and costly
facilities must be sited and financed before this excess capacity will be a
reality.
Alternatives/Mitigation
Partial mitigation for the high costs involved in providing a new treatment
plant could be utilization of the higher quality effluent for reclamation or
reuse, thereby providing an additional source of water to the region. Aqua-
culture is another alternative method that could eventually lead to water
recycling.
3. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL CAPACITY
Solid waste disposal capacity will be exceeded in the next ten years unless
major new facilities are successfully sited and recycling programs initiated in
the San Diego region.
Existing Conditions
The City and County of San Diego are the two agencies responsible for solid
waste disposal facilities in the region. The County owns five sanitary landfills
which are operated by private contractors. It has approved the construction of
a solid waste recovery plant at the San Marcos landfill which could be in opera-
tion as early as 1990. The City of San Diego owns and operates two landfills.
Current capacity at the landfills is about 56 million tons.
Both the City and County of San Diego recognize that annual solid waste
generation rates, currently 1.49 tons per capita are expected to increase to
1. 77 tons per capita by 2.005. If this forecast is accurate, additional solid
waste disposal capacity must be developed. In response, local governments are
initiating aggressive recycling programs, searching for new landfill sites, and
exploring alternative technologies for solid waste processing and disposal.
These include waste to energy processes and new recycling materials and
markets based on currently unrecyclable components of the waste stream.
2.005 Conditions
New solid waste disposal facilities and recycling programs will be needed
before 2.005 to provide capacity for the region. Capacity will run short in the
late l 990's if no new actions are taken. Implementation of the San Marcos
landfill resource recovery project and approved local government recycling
programs should extend capacity past the year 2.000. However, based on
current forecasts of waste generation, by 2.010, additional new facilities and
programs will be required.
4
Alternatives/Mitigation
Effort• are now underway in three areas to add the new solid waste disposal
capacity that the region will need:
o Implementation of extensive recycling programs ( to reduce aMual solid
waste disposal needs by ZO to 30 percent);
o Exploration of alternative solid waste processing and disposal technol-
ogies;
o Search for new land fill sites.
Development of sources of financing is a key issue for local governments in all
three areas. Interjurisdictional cooperation, particularly in the financing of •
recycling programs, will also be an important requirement.
4. AIR QUALITY
Although the region's air quality has improved, the San Diego air basin is not
currently in compliance with federal standards for air quality.
Existing Conditions
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to issue a policy by
mid-1988 to continue implementation of the Act, requiring new state plans
showing how each air basin will achieve the national ambient air quality stan-
dards for ozone and carbon monoxide. The plans must demonstrate how the air
basin will be in attainment by 1995, and maintain national air quality standards
through ZOOS. Measures requiring an average annual reduction of 3 percent in
emissions will be implemented until the national standards are met.
In 1982, the region adopted four transportation strategies designed to reduce
vehicle emissions and bring the region into attainment with the national air
quality standards. Those strategies are: ridesharing, transit, bicycle travel,
and traffic improvements. These four tactics were projected to reduce 1986
reactive hydrocarbon emissions by Z.129 tons per day and carbon monoxide
emissions by 24. 76 tons per day. However, in 1986, the actual reductions were
7 percent of the plan for reactive hydrocarbons and 9 percent of the plan for
carbon monoxide.
Since 1977, there has been a steady improvement in the region's air quality due
mainly to control of fixed source emissions, cleaner fuels, and inspection and
maintenance of pollution control devices on automobiles. For the period 1985-
1987, there were no violations of federal . standards for carbon monoxide,
nitrogen dioxide, or sulfur dioxide, although the state standard for nitrogen
dioxide was exceeded once. In 1987, the region experienced 40 days during .
which ozone levels exceeded federal standards, 14 of which were attributable
to local sources, and 2.6 which resulted from ozone transported from the South
Coast (Los Angeles) air basin.
Beginning in 1988, the San Diego air basin will have to begin reduction of pollu-
tants to meet federal standards by 1995. In order to achieve this, not only will
5
existing transportation tactics to reduce pollutant levels need to be more
effective, but new and stricter controls on auto use and emissions will have to
be implemented. The measures to achieve the emission reductions will be
developed in 1988-1989 and the adopted measures will be included in the 1990
State Plan and presented to EPA for approval.
2005 Conditions
The San Diego air basin must meet federal air quality standards by 1995, and
maintain that status thereafter. For those air basins not in attainment, EPA
may well issue sanctions which could include inhibiting growth in the regions in
which they are imposed. Sanctions authorized by the Clean Air Act include
bans on construction of stationary emission sources and withholding grants for
transportation projects and sewage treatment plants on the assumption that
these may encourage growth. Restriction of participation in these programs
would affect the region's ability to accommodate forecast growth.
A number of measures may be implemented to assure attainment of federal air
quality standards, some at the federal level, but most on the local level. For
example, federal requirements may result in automobiles operating on alter-
native fuels, while at the state level, vehicle inspection and maintenance may
be required annually.
In order to attain clean air standards, the State of California and the San Diego
region will be required to adopt and implement measures to reduce emissions.
As previously stated, reductions of 3 percent per year are required, after full
mitigation of growth. If the San Diego region's emissions were to increase by 2
percent per year due to growth, the average annual reduction in pollutants
would need to be 5 percent to meet and maintain EPA requirements.
Alternatives/Mitigation
California currently has the strictest air quality standards and pollution control
measures in the country. Various tactics or measures which would assist the
region in attaining federal standards include (not necessarily in priority order):
1. voluntary no-drive days
2. trip reduction ordinances
3. employer-based transportation management (including tax incentives for
employer programs)
4. improved public transit
5. parking management programs
6. park and ride/fringe parking
7. work schedule changes
8. road pricing ( tolls)
9. traffic flow improvements
10. rideshare incentives
11. control of extended idling of vehicles
12. gasoline fuel alternatives
13. conversion of fleet vehicles to cleaner fuels or engines
14. reduction of cold start emissions.
6
On the national level, enhanced programs for vehicle inspection and main-
tenance and other emission control standards at stationary sources such as
municipal landfills may be required.
5. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ADEQUACY
The recent growth in automobile travel has had a significant impact on the
region's freeway system. Projects proposed over the next 19 years will main-
tain mobility in the region by providing transit and highway facilities parallel
to those which are expected to be most heavily congested. Transit access in
ZOOS will be significantly better than it is today; highway access will be some-
what worse. The region's airport system will be at its capacity in ZOOS, and
major new facilities will be required if growth beyond that time is to be
accommodated.
Existing Conditions
Freeways -During peak periods, significant portions of the region's freeway
system are over capacity. For these routes, the population has exceeded the
holding capacity of the freeway network, resulting in slower-than-optimal
speeds or transfer of trips to a less congested time. I-8 in Mission Valley has
been congested for years, while I-S north of Sorrento Valley and SR78, with a
near doubling of traf fie since 1980, have more recently become congested.
Other portions of the system, such as the South Bay Freeway, I-S north of
Encinitas Boulevard, and I-lS north of Rancho Penasquitos, retain adequate
capacity.
Streets and Roads -The condition of local streets. and roads is similar to that
of the freeway system. Much of the local network is relatively free-flowing,
even during the peak hours. However, many major streets, such as Friars and
Mission Gorge Roads, have been congested for years. In general, the growth of
travel on local streets and roads has been less than the growth on freeways in
recent years. Funding shortages since the late l 970's have decreased the
ability of cities to expand the local street system. Local jurisdictions report a
backlog of a half billion dollars in local street maintenance and construction
projects.
Transit -With few exceptions, the region's transit system operates at less than
capacity. The bus system, however, because it operates on the streets and
freeways, is affected by the congestion of those facilities.
Aviation -The region's airports have sufficient capacity to handle the existing
demand, although some delay does occur during peak periods. However, one
factor affecting the holding capacity is aviation-generated noise. With minor
exceptions, the general aviation airports conform to state noise standards.
Lindbergh Field, on the other hand, is operating under a noise waiver from the
state.
ZOOS Conditions
Congestion on the region's freeways and local streets will have increased
significantly over existing conditions by the year ZOOS. In addition, general
7
aviation airports and Lindbergh Field's single runway will have reached
capacity. Only the transit system, with the exception of local buses, will have
adequate capacity to serve projected needs.
Freeways -Even with the full implementation of the year 2.005 freeway net-
work adopted in the 1986 RTP, congestion on the region's freeway network will
increase. The peak congestion periods will lengthen on most freeways in the
urbanized areas. Heavy congestion is expected to spread to I-5 in Sorrento
Valley and in National City, and to I-5 near Rancho Bernardo. The newer
facilities -SR76, SR56, SR52. and SR12.5 -are projected to remove signifi-
cant amounts of traffic from existing routes. Nevertheless, within the urban-
ized area, nearly all of I-5, I-15, I-8, I-805, and SR94 will be at least moder-
ately congested. With the improvements proposed for SR78, conditions on that
freeway are anticipated to be better in the year 2.005 than they are today.
Construction of SR52. and the Mission Valley Trolley extension, will prevent
any significant deterioration of travel on I-8, while congestion on SR94 will
improve somewhat with the reconstruction of SR54 and the East Urban Trolley
extension.
Many areas are attempting to deal with congestion by changing commuting
patterns. Carpools, staggered work hours, and incentives for utilizing transit
are a few examples of strategies being used. The City of San Marcos has
implemented an ordinance requiring employers to seek reduction of peak hour
vehicle trips by their employees. The City of San Diego is currently studying
similar regulations.
During FY89, SANDAG will be developing a regionwide demand management
program. This program will be developed in cooperation with its member
agencies, and will build on the previous efforts of San Marcos, San Diego, the
County, and the North County Traffic Demand Management Task Force.
Streets and Roads -Congestion on local streets has not been documented in the
same comprehensive manner that freeways have. As stated above, it is known
that travel on freeways has been growing at a much faster rate than travel on
streets and roads. However, it is expected that this trend will reverse as more
of the freeway system reaches capacity.
In developing the Proposition A program, each City and the County developed a
program to accommodate the projected 2.005 population. Prop A, with other
known revenue sources, will fund only 60% of this identified need. In view of
projected growth and large funding shortfall, the rate of increase in congestion
on the street and road network is anticipated to be worse than that on the
freeway system.
Transit -With the proposed expansion of the region's rail and bus system,
adequate capacity should be available to accommodate year 2.005 demand. The
rail system and the I-15 High Occupancy Vehicle lane will permit the transit
system to avoid many major areas of congestion. However, local buses, which
will carry a majority of the transit rid!:!rs, must continue to operate on local
streets and will be subject to significant delay during peak periods.
Aviation -Planned expansion of existing airports should accommodate the
anticipated demand through the year 2.005. However, beyond that date, an
8
additional general aviation airport will be needed and Lindbergh Field's single
runway will be at capacity.
Comprehensive Land Use Plans for the larger general aviation airports should
ensure that noise impacts from these facilities will not increase. Depending on
aircraft technology, noise impacts of Lindbergh Field may actually decrease,
even with a significant growth in the number of flights.
Alternatives/Mitigation
The Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) proposes a balance of transportation
improvements aimed at correcting existing system deficiencies and accom-
Qlodating growth. The highway system improvements are planned to more
directly connect employment centers to residential areas (SRSZ) or provide
additional capacity at major points of congestion (the I-S/I-80S/SRS6 inter-
change). The transit system is designed to provide additional capacity in
already congested corridors to both relieve existing demand and accommodate
growth.
However, it is unlikely that San Diego will ever return to the free-flow con-
ditions which characterized the region in the recent past. Trends over the past
few years indicate that car ownership and the length and number of trips per
resident are increasing more rapidly than the population. The RTP does not
attempt to maintain the current level of automobile access. The facilities
which would be needed to maintain these levels are simply beyond the financial
resources of the region. The RTP does attempt to maintain personal mobility
through the provision of transit services and through better management of
existing and new transportation faciHties.
Traffic system management, including peak hour traffic management, and
coordinated land use and transportation planning, hold the most promise for
mitigating current and future traffic congestion.
Land use regulation could decrease the need for new facilities. Employment
growth in areas of significant congestion could be discouraged or prohibited.
Employment could be encouraged in areas served by less congested freeways,
and with good transit service.
6. ENERGY
The region's energy supply infrastructure will have to be significantly expanded
in order to meet growth expected by ZOOS. The need for new infrastructure
will be particularly critical in meeting the growing demand for peak electric
supply. The region will need to add 970 MW of peak electric power to balance
demand and supply, and there are currently no identified sources for the power.
Existing Conditions
The capacity of the region's energy supply infrastructure will have to be sig-
nificantly expanded in order to meet growth expected by ZOOS. The need for
new infrastructure will be particularly critical in meeting the growing demand
for peak electric supply (highest instantaneous demand for electricity, usually
on a hot summer afternoon).
9
ZOOS Conditions
The region will need to add 970 MW of unplanned peak electric power before
ZOOS to balance demand and supply. There are currently no plans for or ex-
pected sources for this power. The region will have to initiate efforts to
secure it. This is equivalent to about twice the power the San Diego region
receives from the San Onofre nuclear power plant complex at Camp Pendle-
ton. Energy demand is projected by SDG&E and the California Energy Com-
mission (CEC) to grow at a much higher rate than population due to expected
increases in per capita income, and strong employment growth.
Between now and ZOOS the region (SDG&E, local business, and homeowners) are
expected to install the following additional peak electric capacity:
420 megawatts (MW) resulting from conservation
250 MW of peak electric generation capacity
It is also expected that SDG&E contracts for out-of-area electric capacity will
have declined by 500 MW.
The net result of these forecast changes will be the need for an additional 970
MW of unplanned peak electric power as mentioned above.
CEC forecasts show demand starting to exceed existing and planned peak
electric capacity in 1993. The CEC suggests that the most likely sources of
additional peak capacity are cogeneration and other independent power tech-
nologies, and additional out-of-area purchases of peak power by SDG&E. This
raises so'me concerns about the future availability of electricity:
o Current electricity rate and regulatory trends toward "cost of service"
rates tend to discourage independent power production and conservation,
the most cost-effective supply sources, and in recent years, the major
sources of new energy supply within the region.
o The generally high growth rate in the Southwest, and environmental and
economic concerns related to new power plant construction make the
purchase of large amounts of peak power from areas outside the region
uncertain. High growth rates are expected in other areas of the South-
west and in Mexico. Competition for power purchases will increase
among western utilities, as reflected in the projected SDG&E power
purchase contract losses described above.
An additional concern is the increasing level of reliance on oil and gas-fired
electricity supply in the region. For example, SDG&E is expected to increase
oil and gas-fired electricity generation by 4 billion kilowatt· hours between
1990 and 2000, in order to keep up with total electricity demand. While
worldwide physical supplies of oil and gas are projected to be adequate to meet
needs in 2005, political and economic uncertainties related to their production
give rise to concerns about relying on these source technologies.
10
Alternatives/Mitigations
An ongoing, cooperative effort involving SDG&E, public agencies, and private
industry and business is needed to develop a strategy for the San Diego region's
unique energy problems. This strategy should focus on energy pricing and
financing -the main barriers to utility and independent private and public
action which could meet the region's future energy needs. The recommen-
dations of the SANDAG Energy Finance Advisory Committee provide a basis
for organizing such an effort.
11