The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutEIR 03-05A; DESALINATION PROJECT CHANGES; 2030 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST UPDATE; 2008-07-01July 2008, No. 2 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 ii Introduction ...............................................................1 The Region ................................................................3 Jurisdictions ...............................................................6 1 Population, Housing, and Employment San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................1 2 Population Change by Ethnic Group San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................4 3 Population Change by Age Group San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................5 4 Total Population by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................6 5 Total Housing Units by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................7 6 Total Employment by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................8 Tables Figures Maps 1 The Region is Becoming More Ethnically Diverse San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 .......................5 2 Growth Rates Vary Widely Among Jurisdictions San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................7 3 North County Cities Show Greatest Percentage Gains in Employment, San Diego Region 2004 to 2030 .......................................................8 4 The Region's Population is Getting Older San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 ......................10 5 Median Household Income by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 ......................10 1 Share of Population Growth San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................9 2 Share of Employment Growth San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 ..........................9 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 1 By the year 2030 the San Diego region will grow by approximately one million people, 290,000 new homes and roughly half a million jobs (Table 1). This information comes from the SANDAG 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update that was released in September 2006. Although one million people represents a significant amount of growth, the region’s growth rate has actually slowed over the last decade and that pattern will continue. In fact, by the early 2020s, our annual rate of growth is expected to fall below one percent (see cover chart). For the 18 incorporated cities in the region, the forecast is based on the current adopted land use plans and policies as they stand today. For the unincorporated area, the forecast is based on the most recent version of the County of San Diego’s General Plan 2020 (GP2020) update. According to the County Board of Supervisors, it more accurately reflects the County’s future direction. Hence, the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update provides a clear assessment of where our plans today, if left unchanged, will likely take us over the coming decades. There are several long-range implications: The 290,000 new homes » needed by 2030 is roughly equivalent to the entire remaining housing unit capacity of the region under today’s general and community plans. Further, more than one-third of that remaining capacity is in the form of redevelopment and residential infilling of land that is already developed. Introduction On land that is currently vacant, the remaining housing unit capacity of the region in 2000 was about 244,000 homes. In 2004, just four years later, the remaining capacity on currently vacant land was fewer than 200,000 homes. Over the next 15 to 20 years, most cities » will fully develop under their current plans. Therefore, between 2020 and 2030, most of the growth in housing units (about 80 percent), occurs in just two areas: within the higher density central areas of the City of San Diego, and in the very low density unincorporated areas well outside of incorporated city boundaries. People will seek lower cost housing elsewhere » but continue to work within the region, meaning that interregional commuting will increase substantially. In this forecast, about 99,000 households are “exported” to Orange County, Riverside County, Baja California, and even Imperial County over the next 26 years. Table 1 Population, Housing, and Employment San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 2 Includes persons having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central America) and who maintain tribal affiliation or community attachment. Includes all other responses not included in the ‘‘White,’’ ‘‘Black or African American,’’ ‘‘American Indian or Alaska Native,’’ ‘‘Asian,’’ and ‘‘Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander’’ race categories. Includes persons who identified their race as a combination of two or more of the following race categories: White, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and/or some other race. Includes persons who identified their race as White, as well as persons who did not classify themselves in one of the specific race categories but entered a response suggesting European or Middle Eastern origin. Includes persons who identified their race as any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam. Includes persons who identified their race as Black or African American, as well as persons who did not classify themselves on one of the specific race categories, but entered a response such as African, Creole, Jamaican, or West Indian. Includes persons who identified their race as ‘‘Native Hawaiian,’’ ‘‘Guamanian or Chamorro,’’ ‘‘Samoan,’’ and ‘‘Other Pacific Islander.’’ American Indian Other Two or More Races White Asian Black Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Race and Ethnicity are reported in eight mutually exclusive groups – those who identify themselves as Hispanics, and non-Hispanics who identify themselves as either White, Black or African American, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Other, or Two or More Races. This terminology is consistent with the way 2000 Census information was collected and reported. Hispanic includes all persons of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin. Hispanics may be of any race. Non-Hispanics are divided into seven groups: info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 3 The Region Household size (the number of persons » per household) rises by about four percent between 2004 and 2030, from 2.77 to 2.87. This seemingly small increase accounts for an additional 130,000 people living in the region’s existing homes. It is important to note that the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update is not a prescription for the future. It simply portrays the likely outcomes if we continue operating under our current plans and policies. The Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) serves as a planning framework for the region, and is based on the principles of smart growth and sustainability. It was approved by the SANDAG Board of Directors in July 2004. The RCP is the result of a three-year collaborative process involving thousands of the region’s residents, as well as planners and elected officials. As local plans are updated over time, the goals and policy objectives of the RCP can serve as guidelines for maintaining and improving our quality of life. For more information on the forecast and the RCP, please visit the SANDAG Web site: www.sandag.org. Table 1 presents the regional change in population, housing units, employment, and household size over the 26-year period 2004 to 2030. About one million new residents will be added to the region by 2030, with natural increase (births minus deaths) accounting for about two-thirds of the growth. The remaining one-third is the result of net migration, both domestic and international. Migration consists of two components: domestic migration and foreign immigration. The amount of legal foreign immigration is controlled by the federal government and has remained fairly constant over the past decade. No major change in immigration levels is expected in the foreseeable future. Domestic migration – people moving to and from other parts of the state or the nation – fluctuates each year, usually based on the condition of the local economy. During the recession years in the early 1990s, for example, more people left the region to search for economic opportunities elsewhere. As is the case today, population growth is expected to continue to outpace home construction. Over time, this imbalance will result in an increase in household size (the number of persons per household), a decrease in vacancy rates, and an increase in the amount of interregional commuting, primarily from southwestern Riverside County and northern Baja California. info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 4 Although the region’s population will grow by a million people over the forecast period, our rate of growth is slowing. The chart on the cover compares the region’s growth rate to that of the nation over the 60-year period 1970 to 2030. While we will experience some ups and downs between now and 2030, the general trend is downward. By the mid-2020s, we will be growing at a rate of less than one percent per year. A key reason our growth rate is slowing is a continuing decline in fertility rates (the average number of children born to each woman). Recent data show that this is occurring across most ethnic groups, and that the sharpest drop is seen among the Hispanic population. Additionally, land available for residential development will diminish. The region’s median household income (adjusted for inflation, and reported in constant 1999 dollars) is expected to show positive gains over the forecast period, from $52,200 in 2004 to $62,600 in 2030. This 20 percent increase in real median household income may seem large, but the figures are consistent with historical trends and projected long-term income growth trends for California and the nation. Our ethnic composition will continue to change. Table 2 presents the regional changes in population for seven ethnic groups: Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, Asians/ Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, Other, and Two or More Races. While the Hispanic and Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update Table 2 Population Change by Ethnic Group San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 5 Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups will almost double in size over the 26 years, the number of non-Hispanic Whites is expected to decline slightly. Figure 1 illustrates these changes in terms of share of total population. The Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian groups both gain as a percent of total population. The non-Hispanic Black group stays constant at about 5 percent, and the non-Hispanic White group’s share drops from 52 percent today to 38 percent in 2030. When that group’s share falls below 50 percent – probably around the year 2010 – there will be no ethnic majority in the San Diego region. Statewide, that is true today. The 2000 Census found that only 47 percent of Californians classified themselves as non-Hispanic White. Just as the ethnic composition of the region will change dramatically, so will its age structure. Table 3 clearly illustrates the aging of the region’s population. During the 26-year forecast period, the region’s median age will increase by more than five years, from 33.7 to 39.0. Compared to a total regional population gain of 32 percent, the juvenile population will grow by only 9 percent, while the number of people age 64 to 84 and 85 and older will grow by 125 percent and 124 percent, respectively. By 2030, nearly 19 percent of the region’s population will be 65 or older – a higher percentage than is seen today in the retirement-oriented state of Florida. Figure 1 The Region is Becoming More Ethnically Diverse San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update Table 3 Population Change by Age Group San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 6 Table 4 summarizes how the one million new residents will likely be distributed among the 19 jurisdictions, based on current land use plans and policies and the County of San Diego’s draft GP2020. Although the region as a whole will grow by 32 percent, Figure 2 indicates the growth rates vary widely by jurisdiction. Six jurisdictions will grow at a faster rate than the regional average: the unincorporated area, Chula Vista, San Marcos, Carlsbad, Santee, and National City. While these jurisdictions will see the largest percentage gains in population over the forecast period, it is important to note that the City of San Diego will absorb by far the greatest number of people (316,100, a 28% gain). The projected distribution of new housing units by jurisdiction is shown in Table 5. The general pattern, not surprisingly, follows that of the population forecast. It is significant to note that all of the jurisdictions will see a higher percentage increase in population than in housing. The net effect of this is a 5 percent gain in the average number of persons per household, from 2.77 in 2004 to 2.87 in 2030. Jurisdictions * The County's proposed general plan is designed to accommodate a higher population in 2020 than is forecasted, in part because not all areas that could be developed by 2020 will develop and some areas will develop at a lower density than contemplated by the plan. Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update Table 4 Total Population by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 7 Figure 2 Growth Rates Vary Widely Among Jurisdictions San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 Table 5 Total Housing Units by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 8 Table 6 and Figure 3 show forecasted total employment by jurisdiction. The region is expected to add about 465,000 jobs over the forecast period, a 32 percent increase. Compared to population growth, the growth rates for employment are a little more balanced among jurisdictions. Nine of the 19 jurisdictions will see faster employment growth than the region as a whole. Chula Vista is expected to have the highest growth rate, with a 99 percent increase in jobs between 2004 and 2030, due to a relative abundance of vacant land planned for employment use. Figure 3 North County Cities Show Greatest Percentage Gains in Employment San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 Table 6 Total Employment* by Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 * Includes uniformed military. Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 9 Maps 1 and 2 group the 19 jurisdictions into six geographic subareas: North County Coastal (Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Oceanside, Solana Beach), North County Inland (Escondido, Poway, San Marcos, Vista), East County (El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, Santee), South County (Chula Vista, Coronado, Imperial Beach, National City), the City of San Diego, and the unincorporated area. Map 1 shows the distribution of the 2004 to 2030 population growth by these six subareas. The City of San Diego takes the lion’s share, absorbing 37 percent of the new residents. The unincorporated area is next, with 26 percent. However, much of that growth comes in the later years of the forecast, as the cities begin to fill up under their current land use plans and more growth is forced into the unincorporated area. The two North County subareas combine to absorb 18 percent. The South County takes 14 percent, most of which occurs in the City of Chula Vista. Map 2 portrays the distribution of employment growth among the same areas. Again, the City of San Diego accounts for the largest share (43%), but the nine North County cities, several with a large stock of vacant employment land, will capture 27 percent of the new jobs. Even though 43 percent of the new jobs will be in the City of San Diego, its share of the region’s jobs will drop from today’s 56 percent to 53 percent in 2030. Map 2 Share of Employment Growth San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 Map 1 Share of Population Growth San Diego Region, 2004 to 2030 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast UpdateSANDAG July 2008, No. 2 10 The 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update projects that the region’s median age will increase by almost six years over the 26-year period. Figure 4 depicts median age by jurisdiction in 2004 and 2030, sorted by age in 2004. While median age increases in all jurisdictions over time, the largest increases are seen in Solana Beach (10.6 years), and National City (11 years). Figure 5 shows median household income for 2004 and 2030 (in 1999 dollars), sorted by income in 2004. All jurisdictions show a gain in real household income over the forecast period, ranging from less than $10,000 in ten cities to more than $20,000 in Solana Beach, Del Mar, and Coronado. The ranking of each jurisdiction changes very little over time. Figure 4 The Region's Population is Getting Older San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 Figure 5 Median Household Income by Jurisdiction (1999$) San Diego Region, 2004 and 2030 info — 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update July 2008, No. 2 SANDAG 11 Background The 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update represents the best assessment of the changes we can anticipate for the region and its communities based on the most current available information and well-proven computer models. It is meant to help policy- and decision-makers prepare for the future and is not an expression for or against growth. The SANDAG forecasts are developed through a collaborative effort with experts in demography, housing, the economy, and other disciplines in close cooperation with the local planning directors and their staffs. Each provided and corroborated their forecast inputs. They also reviewed and commented on the forecast results. The forecast process includes two phases. First, a forecast for the entire region is prepared, based largely on economic trends and the associated demographic characteristics. The second phase allocates the regional forecast to jurisdictions and smaller geographic areas based on local agencies’ general and community plans. In addition, the forecast process employs an Interregional Commuting Model (ICM) to estimate the number of households located outside of the region that contain at least one San Diego worker. A full description of the SANDAG forecasting process and the computer models used is contained in the publication 2030 Forecast Process and Model Documentation, available on the SANDAG Web site: www.sandag.org. It has been apparent since the mid-1990s that our local land use plans and policies, in aggregate, cannot support the long-range economic and population growth that is anticipated for the region. In part, this is because the local plans typically have a shorter horizon year than the forecast does. General plans and community plans are intended to guide development within a jurisdiction over a certain period of time, and then be updated to reflect changing conditions. While the forecast looks out to the year 2030, the horizon year of current local plans is typically 2010 or 2020. As those plans evolve, future forecasts may result in different outcomes. SANDAG's Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) is intended to provide guidance for future plan changes. Basing our forecasts on current plans and policies provides us with an important tool to help monitor RCP progress in maintaining and improving the region’s quality of life. San Diego Association of Governments  401 B Street  Suite 800  San Diego, CA 92101  (main) (619) 699-1900  (fax) (619) 699-1905 info info presents information produced as part of the SANDAG overall planning program. The series contains population, housing, employment, land use, transportation, criminal justice, and other data, as well as occasional reports on other subjects of general interest. This report is financed with federal funds from the United States Department of Transportation, state funds from Caltrans, and local funds from SANDAG member jurisdictions. SANDAG The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is the region’s primary research and planning agency, providing the public forum for regional policy decisions about growth, transportation, transit planning and construction, environmental management, housing, open space, energy, public safety, and binational topics. SANDAG is composed of mayors, council members, and county supervisors from each of the region’s 18 cities and county government: Member Agencies City of Carlsbad  City of Chula Vista  City of Coronado  City of Del Mar  City of El Cajon  City of Encinitas  City of Escondido  City of Imperial Beach  City of La Mesa  City of Lemon Grove  City of National City  City of Oceanside  City of Poway  City of San Diego  City of San Marcos  City of Santee  City of Solana Beach  City of Vista  County of San Diego Advisory Agencies Imperial County  California Department of Transportation  Metropolitan Transit System  North County Transit District  United States Department of Defense  San Diego Unified Port District  San Diego County Regional Water Authority  Southern California Tribal Chairmen’s Association  Mexico THE SERVICE BUREAU The SANDAG Service Bureau is the consulting arm of SANDAG providing informational and technical services to member agencies, nonmember government agencies, and private organizations and individuals. Customized data, reports, and maps are available through the SANDAG Service Bureau. For information, please call us at (619) 699-1900 or visit us at: www.sandag.org/servicebureau THE REGIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEM The SANDAG Regional Information System contains a comprehensive collection of historic, current, and forecasted information. We continuously update these datasets that contain demographic, economic, land use, transportation, criminal justice, and environmental information. Much of this information can be obtained at: www.sandag.org Formatted data reports and raw data can be extracted from the Profile Warehouse and the Data Warehouse. The site also provides access to several mapping applications. SANDAG June 2004 Number 4 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Region Nation Average Annual Population Increase 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 201 0 201 5 202 0 202 5 20 3 0 Growth Rates are Slowing San Diego Region and the Nation info info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT June 2004, No. 4 SANDAG’s Final 2030 Forecast was released in November 2003. It predicts that between 2000 and 2030 the San Diego region will add about one million more people, over 300,000 new homes, and more than 400,000 additional jobs. (See Table 1.) Although this is a signiﬁ cant amount of growth, the region’s growth rate has actually slowed over the last decade, and that pattern will continue. In fact, by the mid-2020s, our growth rate is expected to fall below that of the nation as a whole. (See cover chart.) For the 18 incorporated cities in the region, the forecast is based on the current adopted land use plans and policies as they stand today. For the unincorporated area, the forecast is based on the most recent version of the County’s GP2020 plan update, as the Board of Supervisors feels that it more accurately reﬂ ects the County’s Introduction future direction. Hence, the 2030 Forecast provides a clear assessment of where our plans of today, if left unchanged, will likely take us over the coming decades. There are several long-range implications: • The 314,000 new homes needed by 2030 is roughly equivalent to the entire remaining housing unit capacity of the region under today’s general and community plans. Furthermore, almost one-quarter of that remaining capacity is in the form of redevelopment and residential inﬁ lling of land that is already developed. On land that is currently vacant, the remaining housing unit capacity of the region in 2000 was about 244,000 homes. Today, just four years later, the remaining capacity on currently vacant land is fewer than 200,000 homes. • Over the next 15 to 20 years, most cities will fully develop under their current plans. Therefore, between 2020 and 2030, most of the growth in housing units (about 86 percent) occurs in just two areas: within the higher density central areas of the City of San Diego, and in the very low density unincorporated areas well outside of the cities. • People will seek lower-cost housing elsewhere, but continue to work within the region, meaning that Introduction................................. 2 The Region................................... 2 Jurisdictions................................ 4 table of contents SANDAG’s Regional Information System contains a comprehensive collection of historic, current, and forecasted information. We continuously update these datasets that contain demographic, economic, land use, transportation, criminal justice, and environmental information. Much of this information can be obtained from our Web site (www.sandag.org). Formatted data reports and raw data can be extracted from the Proﬁ le Warehouse and the Data Warehouse. The site also provides access to several interactive mapping applications. SourcePoint, a nonproﬁ t corporation chartered by SANDAG, can provide assistance in preparing customized reports and maps. For more information, contact our Public Information Ofﬁ ce at (619) 699-1950. The Region T able 1 presents the regional change in population, housing units, employment, household size, and household income over the 30-year period 2000 to 2030. About one million new residents will be added to the region by 2030, with natural increase (births minus deaths) accounting for about two-thirds of the growth. The remaining one-third is the result of net migration, both domestic and international. As is the case today, population growth is expected to continue to outpace home construction. Over time, this imbalance will result in an increase in household size (the number of persons per household), a decrease in vacancy rates, and an increase in the amount of interregional commuting, primarily from southwestern Riverside County and northern Baja California. Although the region’s population will grow by a million people over the forecast period, our rate of growth is slowing. The chart on the cover compares the region’s growth rate to that of the nation over the 50- year period 1980 to 2030. While we interregional commuting will increase substantially. In this forecast, about 93,000 households are “exported” to Riverside County, Baja California, and even Imperial County over the 30 years. Currently, about three percent of our workforce lives outside of the region’s boundaries. By 2030 that ﬁ gure could increase signiﬁ cantly. • Household size (the number of persons per household) rises by about ﬁ ve percent between 2000 and 2030, from 2.73 to 2.88. This seemingly small increase accounts for an additional 200,000 people living in the region’s existing homes. 2 June 2004, No. 4 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT Source: 2030 Regional Growth, November 2003, SANDAG. 2000 2010 2020 2030 Num. Pct. 1,040,100 1,166,100 1,254,600 1,354,100 314,000 30% 2.73 2.78 2.86 2.88 0.15Household Size 5% $47,500 $48,700 55,900 $64,600 17,100 36% 2,813,800 3,211,700 3,528,600 3,855,100 37% Median Hhld. Income 2000 - 2030 Change 1,384,700 1,528,500 1,672,900 1,824,000 439,300Employment 32% 1,041,300PopulationHousing Units Table 1 Population, Housing and Employment San Diego Region will experience some ups and downs between now and 2030, the general trend is downward. By the mid-2020s, we will be growing at a slower pace than the nation. The reasons for this slowdown include the fact that land available for residential development will diminish. Also, the region’s mortality rate will rise as those in the large baby boom generation reach their 70s and 80s toward the end of the forecast period. The region’s median household income (adjusted for inﬂ ation, shown in constant (1999) dollars) is expected to show positive gains over the forecast period, from $47,500 in 2000 to $64,600 in 2030. This 36 percent increase in real median household income may seem large, but the ﬁ gures are consistent with historical trends and projected long-term income growth trends for California and the nation. Our ethnic composition will continue to evolve. Table 2 presents the regional changes in population for four ethnic groups: Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, Black, and Asian/ Other. While the Hispanic and Asian/ Other groups will almost double in size over the 30 years, the number of Whites is expected to decline slightly. Figure 1 illustrates these changes in terms of share of total population. The Hispanic and Asian/Other groups both gain as a percent of total population. The Black group stays constant at about ﬁ ve percent, and the White group’s share drops from 55 percent today to 40 percent in 2030. When that group’s share falls below 50 percent—probably around the year 2006—there will be no ethnic majority in the San Diego region. Statewide, that is true today. The 2000 Census found that only 47 percent of Californians classiﬁ ed themselves as non-Hispanic White. Just as the ethnic composition of the region will change dramatically, so will its age structure. Table 3 clearly illustrates the aging of the region’s population. During the 30-year forecast period, the region’s median Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, November 2003, SANDAG. White Asian/OtherRegion Hispanic 2000 - 2030 Change 2000 1,548,800 359,5002,813,800 751,000 154,500 2030 1,529,100 705,1003,855,100 1,423,500 197,400 Num. -19,700 345,5001,041,300 672,500 43,000Black Pct. -1% 96% 37% 90% 28% Table 2 Population Change by Ethnic Group, 2000 – 2030 San Diego Region Ethnicity Ethnicity is reported in four mutually exclusive groups— Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks or African Americans, and non-Hispanic Asian and other races. This terminology is consistent with the way 2000 Census information was collected and reported. Hispanic Includes all persons of Hispanic or of Latino or Spanish origin. Hispanics may be of any race. Non-Hispanics are divided into three groups: White: Includes persons who identiﬁ ed their race as White as well as persons who did not classify themselves in one of the speciﬁ c race categories but entered a response suggesting European or Middle Eastern origin. Black: Includes persons who identiﬁ ed their race as Black or African American as well as persons who did not classify themselves on one of the speciﬁ c race categories, but entered a response such as African, Creole, Jamaican, or West Indian. Asian/ Includes persons who Other: identiﬁ ed their race as Japanese, Chinese, Filipino, Korean, Asian Indian, Vietnamese, Hawaiian, Guamanian, Samoan, Other Asian and Paciﬁ c Islander, American Indian, or another race category not included elsewhere. 3 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT June 2004, No. 4 Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, November 2003, SANDAG. 18 - 64 85 and olderRegion Median Age 0 - 17 2000 - 2030 Change 2000 1,776,400 36,4002,813,800 33.2 723,700 277,300 2030 2,299,500 100,2003,855,100 38.9 814,700 640,700 Num. 523,100 63,8001,041,300 5.7 91,000 363,40065 - 84 Pct. 29% 175%37% 17% 13% 131% Table 3 Population Change by Age Group, 2000 – 2030 San Diego Region Hispanic Asian/Other Black White 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percent of Total Pop. 2000 2030 Figure 1 We are Becoming More Ethnically Diverse (San Diego Region) age will increase by more than ﬁ ve years, from 33.2 to 38.9. Compared to a regional population gain of 37 percent, the juvenile population will grow by only 13 percent, while the number of people age 64 to 84 and 85 and older will grow by 131 percent and 175 percent, respectively. By 2030, fully 19 percent of the region’s population will be 65 or older—a higher percentage than is seen today in the state of Florida. Jurisdictions Table 4 summarizes how the one million new residents will likely be distributed among the 19 jurisdictions, based on current land use plans and policies and the County’s GP2020. Although the region as a whole will grow by 37 percent, Figure 2 indicates the growth rates vary widely by jurisdiction. Only four jurisdictions will grow faster than the regional rate: Carlsbad, Chula Vista, San Marcos, and the unincorporated area. While these four jurisdictions will see the largest percentage gains in population over the forecast period, it is important to note that the City of San Diego will absorb by far the greatest number of people (433,400, a 35% gain). The projected distribution of new housing units by jurisdiction is shown in Table 5. The general pattern, not surprisingly, follows that of the population forecast. It is signiﬁ cant to note that 18 of the 19 jurisdictions will see a higher percentage increase in population than in housing. The net effect of this is a ﬁ ve-percent gain in the average number of persons per household, from 2.73 in 2000 to 2.88 in 2030. The forecast of total employment by jurisdiction is the subject of Table 6 and Figure 3. The region is expected to add about 440,000 jobs over the forecast period, a 32 percent increase. Compared to population growth, the growth rates for employment are a little more balanced Percent Change in Population, 2000 - 2030 0%10%20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Solana Beach Coronado Del Mar La Mesa El Cajon National City Poway Lemon Grove Imperial Beach Escondido Encinitas Vista Oceanside Santee San Diego REGION Unincorporated San Marcos Chula Vista Carlsbad Figure 2 Growth Rates Vary Widely Among Jurisdictions 4 June 2004, No. 4 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT among jurisdictions. Eight of the 19 jurisdictions will see faster employment growth than the region as a whole. Five of those are in the North County: Vista, Poway, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Carlsbad. Again, this is due to a relative abundance of vacant land planned for employment use. Maps 1 and 2 on page 7 group the 19 jurisdictions into six geographic subareas: North County Coastal (Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Oceanside, Solana Beach), North County Inland (Escondido, Poway, San Marcos, Vista), East County (El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, Santee), South County (Chula Vista, Coronado, Imperial Beach, National City), the City of San Diego, and the unincorporated County of San Diego. Map 1 shows the distribution of the 2000 to 2030 population growth by these six subareas. The City of San Diego takes the lion’s share, absorbing 41 percent of the new residents. The unincorporated area is next, with 23 percent. However, much of that growth comes in the later years of the forecast, as the cities begin to ﬁ ll up under their current land use plans, and more growth is forced into the unincorporated area. The two North County subareas combine to absorb 20 percent, and the South County takes 12 percent, most of which occurs in the City of Chula Vista. Map 2 portrays the distribution of employment growth among the same areas. Again, the City of San Diego accounts for the largest share (45%), but the nine North County cities, several with a large stock of vacant employment land, will capture 28 percent of the new jobs. Even though 45 percent of the new jobs will be in the City of San Diego, its share of the region’s jobs will drop from today’s 56 percent to 54 percent in 2030. Age and income are two widely used demographic characteristics. The 2030 Forecast projects that the region’s median age will increase by almost six years over the 30-year period. That may be considered bad news by some, but the good news is that our median incomes, adjusted for inﬂ ation, are projected to rise by a regional average of 36 percent. Figure 4 depicts median age by jurisdiction in 2000 and 2030 and is sorted by age in 2000. While median age increases in all jurisdictions over time, the largest increases are seen in Solana Beach (11.0 years), and National City (10.6 years). 1The County's proposed general plan is designed to accommodate a higher population in 2020 than is forecasted, in part because not all areas that could be developed by 2020 will develop, and some areas will develop at a lower density than contemplated by the plan. Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, November 2003, SANDAG. 2000 - 2030 Change 78,200 107,300 120,600 128,800 50,500Carlsbad 65% 24,100 24,800 25,200 25,500 1,400Coronado 6%173,600 247,900 269,000 278,200 104,600Chula Vista 60% 4,400 4,600 4,700 4,700 300Del Mar 8% 58,000 64,900 68,400 71,000 13,000Encinitas 22%Escondido 133,600 144,700 153,400 163,300 29,700 22%Imperial Beach 27,000 27,900 30,000 32,800 5,800 22%La Mesa 54,700 57,000 59,800 62,500 7,800 14%Lemon Grove 24,900 26,200 27,800 29,700 4,800 19%National City 54,300 56,100 59,000 62,800 8,600 16%Oceanside 161,000 189,000 201,500 208,600 47,500 30%Poway 48,000 51,800 54,500 56,100 8,000 17%San Diego 1,223,400 1,370,300 1,507,800 1,656,800 433,400 35%San Marcos 55,000 77,600 82,400 86,000 31,100 56% Santee 53,000 55,300 61,000 71,100 18,100 34%Solana Beach 13,000 13,500 13,600 13,700 700 5%Vista 89,900 97,600 104,600 111,600 21,800 24%Unincorporated1 442,900 436,600 581,600 682,800 239,900 54%REGION 2,813,800 3,211,700 3,528,600 3,855,100 1,041,300 37% El Cajon 94,900 98,600 103,700 109,070 14,200 15% 2000 2010 2020 2030 Num. Pct. Table 4 Total Population by Jurisdiction San Diego Region Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, November 2003, SANDAG. 2000 - 2030 Change 33,800 45,300 49,000 50,700 16,900Carlsbad 50% 9,500 9,600 9,700 9,900 400Coronado 4%59,500 81,500 86,400 87,500 28,000Chula Vista 47% 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 0Del Mar 2% 23,800 26,200 26,900 27,200 3,400Encinitas 14%Escondido 45,100 48,000 49,600 51,600 6,500 15%Imperial Beach 9,700 9,800 10,300 10,900 1,200 12%La Mesa 24,900 25,300 25,700 26,000 1,100 4%Lemon Grove 8,700 9,000 9,300 9,700 1,000 11%National City 15,400 15,700 16,200 17,000 1,600 10%Oceanside 59,600 67,800 69,800 70,700 11,100 19%Poway 15,700 16,700 17,100 17,200 1,500 10%San Diego 469,700 520,000 558,100 604,400 134,700 29%San Marcos 18,900 27,200 28,600 29,200 10,300 55% Santee 18,800 19,400 20,800 23,700 4,900 26%Solana Beach 6,500 6,500 6,600 6,600 100 2%Vista 29,800 31,900 33,300 34,600 4,800 16%Unincorporated 152,900 167,800 198,000 236,900 84,000 55%REGION 1,040,100 1,166,100 1,254,600 1,353,900 313,800 30% El Cajon 35,200 35,800 36,600 37,500 2,300 7% 2000 2010 2020 2030 Num. Pct. Table 5 Total Housing Units by Jurisdiction San Diego Region 5 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT June 2004, No. 4 1Includes uniformed military. Totals may be affected by rounding. Source: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, November 2003, SANDAG. 2000 - 2030 Change 50,800 57,300 65,700 79,200 28,400Carlsbad 56% 29,900 30,100 30,200 30,300 400Coronado 1%53,700 59,800 68,900 79,400 25,700Chula Vista 48% 3,800 3,900 4,100 4,200 400Del Mar 10% 24,200 26,100 28,300 29,700 5,500Encinitas 23%Escondido 49,700 53,000 56,900 63,800 14,100 28%Imperial Beach 3,900 4,400 4,800 4,900 1,000 24%La Mesa 25,400 26,000 26,600 27,800 2,400 9% Lemon Grove 8,600 8,900 9,400 9,800 1,200 14%National City 24,800 25,200 25,700 27,300 2,500 10%Oceanside 39,600 44,500 51,400 62,400 22,800 58%Poway 21,800 26,400 31,600 35,000 13,200 61%San Diego 777,600 866,100 931,900 976,000 198,400 26%San Marcos 30,400 34,000 38,600 47,400 56%Santee 16,100 17,400 19,200 21,800 5,700 36%Solana Beach 8,900 9,600 9,900 10,300 1,400 16%Vista 33,800 39,900 47,000 55,800 22,000 66%Unincorporated 140,300 153,200 178,100 211,200 70,900 51% REGION 1,384,600 1,528,600 1,672,800 1,823,800 439,200 32% El Cajon 41,300 42,800 44,500 47,500 6,200 15% 2000 2010 2020 2030 Num. Pct. 17,000 Table 6 Total Employment1 by Jurisdiction San Diego Region 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Coronado La Mesa National City Del Mar Lemon Grove El Cajon Solana Beach Encinitas Imperial Beach San Diego Escondido REGION Santee Chula Vista Unincorporated Carlsbad San Marcos Oceanside Poway Vista Percent Change in Employment, 2000 - 2030 Figure 3 North County Cities Show Greatest Gains in Employment 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Escondido Vista Imperial Beach San Marcos El Cajon San Diego REGION Oceanside Coronado Santee Lemon Grove National City Chula Vista Unincorporated Poway Encinitas La Mesa Carlsbad Del Mar Solana Beach Median Age, 2000 and 2030 2000 2030 Figure 4 We Are Getting Older... 6 June 2004, No. 4 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT 0 5 10 152.5 Miles 11%9% 41%4% 12% 23% Map 1 San Diego Region SHARE OF POPULATION GROWTH 2000 - 2030 Oceanside Carlsbad Encinitas Solana Beach Del Mar Coronado Imperial Beach Vista San Marcos Escondido Poway Unincorporated El Cajon Santee La Mesa San DiegoLemon Grove Chula Vista Vista National City ORANGE COUNTY MEXICO IM P E R I A L C O U N T Y SAN DIEGO COUNTY RIVERSIDE COUNTY Temecula 0 5 10 152.5 Miles 13%15% 45%4% 7% 16% Map 2 San Diego Region SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2000 - 2030 Unincorporated Escondido Poway San Marcos Vista Santee El CajonLa Mesa Lemon Grove San Diego National City Chula Vista Imperial Beach Coronado Del Mar Solana Beach Encinitas Carlsbad Oceanside Temecula ORANGE COUNTY RIVERSIDE COUNTY SAN DIEGO COUNTY IM P E R I A L C O U N T Y MEXICO 7 info SANDAG/SOURCEPOINT June 2004, No. 4 Background The 2030 Regional Growth Forecast represents the best assessment of the changes we can anticipate for the region and its communities based on the most current available information and well-proven computer models. It is meant to help policy and decision makers prepare for the future and is not an expression for or against growth. SANDAG’s forecasts are developed through a collaborative effort with experts in demography, housing, the economy and other disciplines, and the close cooperation of the local planning directors and their staffs. Each jurisdiction had several opportunities to provide and corroborate their forecast inputs as well as review and comment on the forecast results. The forecast process includes two phases. First, a forecast for the entire region is prepared, based largely on economic trends and the associated demographic characteristics. The second phase allocates the regional forecast to jurisdictions and smaller geographic areas based on the region’s general and community plans. In addition, the forecast process now employs a new Interregional Commuting Model (ICM) to estimate the number of households located outside of the region that contain at least one San Diego worker. A full description of SANDAG’s forecasting process and the computer models used is contained in the publication Final 2030 Forecast Process and Model Documentation, available on the SANDAG Web site (www.sandag.org). It has been apparent since the mid-1990s that our local land use plans and policies, in aggregate, cannot support the long-range economic and population growth that is anticipated for the region. In part, this is because the local plans typically have a shorter horizon year than the forecast does. General plans and community plans are intended to guide development within a jurisdiction over a certain period of time, and then be updated to reﬂ ect changing conditions. While the forecast looks out to the year 2030, the horizon year of current local plans is typically 2010 or 2020. As those plans evolve, future forecasts may result in different outcomes. The Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) is intended to provide guidance for future plan changes. Basing our forecasts on current plans and policies provides us with an important tool to help monitor the RCP’s progress in maintaining and improving the region’s quality of life. SourcePoint is a chartered nonproﬁ t corporation of SANDAG. SANDAG Member Agencies: Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista County of San Diego Advisory Agencies: Imperial County, Caltrans, Metropolitan Transit System, North San Diego County Transit Development Board, U.S. Department of Defense, San Diego Uniﬁ ed Port District, San Diego County Water Authority, Baja California/Mexico info info presents information produced as part of the San Diego Association of Governments’ overall planning program. The series contains population, housing, employment, land use, transportation, criminal justice and other data, as well as occasional reports on other subjects of general interest. This report is ﬁ nanced with federal funds from the U.S. Department of Transportation, state funds from Caltrans, and local funds from SANDAG member jurisdictions. San Diego Association of Governments 401 B Street • Suite 800 San Diego, CA 92101 (619) 699-1900 • (619) 699-1905 8