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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2026-05-12; City Council; 12; Economic and Financial Update for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025-26CA Review CKM Meeting Date: May 12, 2026 To: Mayor and City Council From: Geoff Patnoe, City Manager Staff Contact: Zach Korach, Finance Director zach.korach@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2127 Tess Sangster, Economic Development Director tess.sangster@carlsbadca.gov, 760-607-2923 Subject: Economic and Financial Update for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025-26 Districts: All Recommended Actions Receive a report on the economic and financial update for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025- 26 and provide direction as appropriate Executive Summary The City Manager has committed to providing quarterly updates to the City Council on the city’s economic outlook and finances. The update reviews the city’s economic and fiscal health and serves as a measure of budgetary performance. In this report, staff will provide information on national, state, regional and Carlsbad-specific economic data and the city’s most recent financial data. This report also details recent economic trends and information on current impacts on our local economy. In line with regional trends, Carlsbad experienced increases in revenues in almost all categories when compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year, from January to March, and expenditures are in line with the prior year’s rate of spending. Explanation & Analysis Economic update Carlsbad’s economy enters a solid first quarter of 2026, despite ongoing national and global uncertainty. U.S. financial markets continue to hold steady, supported by consistent consumer spending and a durable labor market, sustaining overall business confidence. Consumer activity remains positive but more selective as households adjust to higher prices and borrowing costs, while confidence has improved slightly but still reflects caution. Gross domestic product growth remains positive, though below long-term averages, indicating a slower but steady expansion. Locally, Carlsbad’s core industry clusters—life sciences, technology, clean technology, sports and active lifestyle, and hospitality and tourism—continue to anchor steady economic May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 1 of 34 performance. Key indicators have generally stabilized, including a low unemployment rate, while businesses continue to adapt to inflation-related cost pressures. Overall, Carlsbad remains well positioned to navigate shifting conditions and support continued growth. Gross regional product Carlsbad continues to maintain one of the largest gross regional products in San Diego County at more than $18.6 billion, second only to the City of San Diego. California continues to exhibit a “two-speed” economic environment, where performance varies significantly across industries. High-value sectors such as technology, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing remain relatively strong and continue to drive statewide growth. In contrast, more cost-sensitive industries — including construction, retail, and hospitality — face ongoing pressures from elevated labor costs, tighter financing conditions, and shifting consumer demand patterns. Despite broader price sensitivity, Carlsbad’s hotel and hospitality sector continues to perform strongly, supported by sustained visitor demand and regional tourism activity. This divergence reflects both structural strengths in innovation-driven sectors and continued headwinds in labor- and rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Labor market conditions The unemployment rate in Carlsbad has seen a gradual decline over the last several months and now resides at 4% as of March. National labor data show a continued cooling in job openings, and private sector data earlier in the fall reflected softer hiring sentiment. Unemployment rate comparison - last 12 months Note: Gap in data due to federal government shutdown May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 2 of 34 Job postings in Carlsbad totaled 5,648 in the first quarter of 2026, up from the prior quarter, indicating a more optimistic employer activity. Unemployment rates across Carlsbad, San Diego County, and the United States reflect a labor market that has broadly normalized, with modest variation at the local level. • Carlsbad maintains a relatively low unemployment rate of approximately 4.0%, slightly below its North County peers by about 0.1 percentage point, indicating continued strength in its local labor base. • The rate countywide stands at 4.3%, reflecting a stable but somewhat looser regional labor market. • At the state level, California’s unemployment rate is higher at 5.2%, consistent with uneven recovery across industries and regions. Nationally, the U.S. unemployment rate remains near full-employment conditions at approximately 4.1%–4.2%, signaling that while labor demand has cooled from prior highs, the overall labor market remains resilient. Compared to these benchmarks, Carlsbad continues to outperform both county and state averages, aligning more closely with national conditions and underscoring its relatively tight and stable employment environment within the region. Hospitality and tourism Hotel performance moderated seasonally in the first quarter after a strong uptick in occupancy. While full annual performance remained solid, late-year occupancy softened, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Hotel room rates remained comparatively strong, reflecting Carlsbad’s positioning as a premium coastal destination. Over the past year, Visit Carlsbad delivered measurable results across its key priorities, including driving demand through targeted marketing, strengthening group business, and expanding into new markets. These efforts generated $14.7 million in room revenue and 67,536 room nights through a regional lodging campaign. Hotel occupancy trend May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 3 of 34 Hotel average daily rate trend Commercial real estate trends During the first quarter, Carlsbad’s commercial real estate market continued to moderate while remaining relatively resilient compared to broader regional trends. Industrial vacancy increased modestly to 10.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the prior quarter, reflecting a generally stable market environment supported by sustained demand and continued leasing activity in larger spaces. Office vacancy rose to 14.83%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points, aligning with broader structural shifts in the workforce as more employers adopt hybrid and digitally enabled operating models that reduce the need for traditional in-person office space. In contrast, industrial and life sciences-related uses continue to require physical occupancy and specialized facilities, contributing to more consistent demand in those segments. Retail vacancy decreased to 4.72%, despite a 0.38 percentage point quarterly increase in some submarkets, and remains below regional averages, underscoring the continued strength and resilience of Carlsbad’s retail corridors supported by steady consumer activity and destination- driven commercial nodes. Carlsbad commercial vacancy rates May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 4 of 34 Despite incremental increases in office vacancy, rental rates remained relatively stable for all product types. Retail rents declined slightly to $44.41 per square foot per year, office rents increased to $39.95 per square foot per year, and industrial rents decreased to $22.45 per square foot per year. Market rent per square foot In the broader San Diego region, a notable trend is the easing of commercial and residential rental rates after several years of sharp increases. Early data indicate that rents across parts of the county have begun to stabilize or decline modestly, which could provide some relief for both residents and businesses facing elevated occupancy costs. For businesses, particularly small and locally serving establishments, lower commercial rents may improve viability and create new opportunities for expansion. Locally, the city’s net absorption, a commercial real estate metric that measures the change in occupied space over a given period, has increased across all sectors, signaling continued demand for space despite shifting rent dynamics. The industrial sector has seen the strongest performance, with about 240,000 square feet of net absorption, or increased commercial space, driven largely by larger industrial tenants entering the market and leasing available space. This sustained absorption has contributed to a reduction in vacancy within the industrial sector, underscoring its relative strength compared to other property types. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 5 of 34 Housing market and cost of living Housing values continue to increase during the first quarter. Zillow’s home value index for Carlsbad, a seasonally adjusted, monthly metric tracking the typical home value, measured a median home value of $1.37 million for the last month of the quarter, up 0.92% from the previous quarter and 7.62% from the end of last year. Median home price comparison, last 12 months After several years of sustained appreciation, home values appear to be leveling off. Mortgage rates remained elevated through the end of the year. Higher borrowing costs continue to constrain affordability and limit transaction volume. While stabilizing home values may help moderate future price volatility, the affordability of housing remains a structural constraint in attracting and retaining the city’s workforce. However, a recent decline in rental rates for residential households offer a sign of relief in the future. Federal policy and macroeconomic considerations Inflation has continued to moderate but remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-run target, sustaining upward pressure on both consumers and businesses. In response, the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, keeping interest rates elevated and borrowing costs high. While this environment continues to constrain access to capital, particularly for small and mid-sized firms—there is growing market expectation of potential rate adjustments later in the year if inflation continues to ease. At the same time, trade policy and tariffs remain a persistent source of uncertainty. Ongoing tariff pressures on imported goods and materials continue to drive cost volatility across supply chains, prompting businesses to reassess pricing strategies, supplier relationships and overall margins. Globally, continued disruptions in supply chains—driven by geopolitical instability, shifting trade routes and elevated transportation and freight costs—are increasing costs for materials, energy, labor and services essential for production across multiple sectors. Energy markets May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 6 of 34 remain a key contributor as well, with oil price volatility and persistently elevated fuel costs feeding into higher logistics and production expenses worldwide. Locally, businesses report that although they have tried to absorb increased costs where possible, sustained tariff and supply chain impacts are making price adjustments increasingly unavoidable and contributing to expectations of further price increases into 2026. Conclusion Carlsbad entered the first quarter of 2026 in a position of continued economic stability amid ongoing national and global uncertainty. While overall growth remains positive, momentum has moderated as businesses and households adjust to higher borrowing costs, persistent inflationary pressures, and evolving trade and supply chain conditions. •Locally, hiring activity showed early signs of improvement, and job postings increased quarter-over-quarter, even as the broader labor market continues to normalize. •Commercial real estate conditions remain mixed, with vacancy rates stabilizing across most asset classes and the net absorption measure of increased commercial space remaining positive, particularly in the industrial sector. •Housing values continued to rise modestly, though affordability constraints and elevated interest rates are tempering transaction activity and signaling a broader leveling trend. •At the same time, key industry clusters — including life sciences, technology, clean technology, sports and active lifestyle, and hospitality — continue to provide structural strength and support regional competitiveness. Despite sector-specific variations and cost pressures, Carlsbad’s diversified economic base, relatively low unemployment, and sustained business activity position the city to remain resilient as macroeconomic conditions continue to evolve. The complete economic scan for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 is provided as Exhibit 1. Economic indicators are tracked on a dashboard available at carlsbadca.gov/economy. Financial update Fiscal year 2023-24 experienced strong growth and revenue performance, specifically with property tax and sales tax. However, as the year progressed, indications of an economic slowdown became more evident. The total amount of taxable receipts began to decline when compared to previous periods, and revenues from the transient occupancy tax on overnight lodging ended the year very similarly to the prior year. Similar trends were experienced in fiscal year 2024-25, namely with sales tax and diminishing consumer demand, given the sustained inflationary increases across the region. Bolstered by property tax revenues, the General Fund’s total revenues remain strong, though sales tax revenues continue to be sensitive to changes in consumer demand. It will be critical to monitor the city’s revenues and expenditures as the city concludes fiscal year 2025-26 and take necessary proactive steps to continue mitigating economic uncertainties. The March 2026 Financial Status Report is provided as Exhibit 2. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 7 of 34 Revenues The city’s General Fund is its primary operating fund, used to account for all financial activities that are not specifically designated for another fund, and primarily covers the costs of essential services such as police, firefighting, parks and recreation, general government operations and other basic city functions. The General Fund’s top three revenue sources – the property, sales and transient occupancy taxes – reached historic highs in fiscal year 2023-24. Fiscal year 2024-25 experienced much smaller growth in property and transient occupancy taxes, with both realizing 4% increases, while sales taxes realized a 3% reduction. Because revenue growth continues to level off, the current fiscal year’s adopted budget took a conservative approach at estimating these revenue sources. Total revenues are down $575,000 or 0.3% over the prior year, which is mainly attributed to a drop in sales taxes that was partially offset by an insurance reimbursement received by the city. The table below shows the differences in revenue when comparing the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-26 with the same period in the prior fiscal year. Fiscal year 2025-26 year-to-date revenues as of March 2026 compared to fiscal year 2024-25 as of March 2025 Revenue category Change ($) Change (%) Property tax $1,715,797 3% Sales tax -$4,063,842 -9% Transient occupancy tax -$168,162 -1% Other taxes $255,845 3% Intergovernmental -$863,932 -45% Licenses and permits -$227,746 -9% Charges for services -$226,569 -2% Fines and forfeitures $105,012 38% Investments, property income $1,449,922 23% Interdepartmental charges $297,435 7% Other revenue sources $1,151,076 247% Total revenues -$575,164 -0.3% Major revenue sources • Property tax The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. Increases of $1.7 million for the first nine months of the fiscal year are due to a 4.3% increase in assessed property values when compared to last year. Although increases in residential assessed values were recorded for fiscal year 2025-26 and for-sale home prices are remaining steady, the county is experiencing historically low for-sale housing inventory as higher interest rates are decreasing home affordability. • Sales tax For the first half of the fiscal year, sales tax revenues are $4.1 million, or 19%, lower than the same period in the previous fiscal year. Sales tax revenues to date for the current fiscal year represent the city’s sales tax revenues for the for May and June 2025 May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 8 of 34 and the third and fourth calendar quarters of calendar year 2025 as well as the first advance for the first calendar quarter of 2026. In fiscal year 2021-22, the city experienced accelerated recovery after the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal year 2022-23 saw historically high levels of sales tax revenues driven by inflation and sustained by consumer demand. Fiscal years 2023-24 and 2024-25 revealed a leveling from sales growth and slowdown in consumer activity. This leveling off is continuing into the current fiscal year as revenue trends remain slightly lower than a year ago overall. Consumers are more likely to wait for greater improvement of household economic conditions before extending themselves again, inspiring the next sales tax growth cycle. The largest economic segments in the city are automobile dealers, general consumer goods, and restaurants. Together, they generate approximately 70% of the city’s sales tax revenues. For sales occurring in the fourth calendar quarter of 2025 (the most recent data available), Carlsbad’s cash basis sales were down 0.8% when compared to the fourth calendar quarter of 2024. The city’s largest sector, the auto dealers, showed a 14% decline in new car sales. General consumer goods also experienced a decrease of 8%, offset by a 19% increase in business and industry and a 5% increase in the city’s county pool allocation. On an economically adjusted basis, the city’s sales tax receipts were down approximately 3.6% over the previous year and driven mainly by timing and audit adjustments but also by a decline in consumer demand, likely in response to the sustained inflationary period and geopolitical conflict. • Transient occupancy tax Year-to-date transient occupancy tax figures represent taxes collected on overnight stays at lodging businesses through the month of February 2026. The revenue received in the nine months of the fiscal year represents a slight decrease of $168,000, or 1%, when compared to the same year-to-date period last year. Occupancy rates over the last 12 months have been 72.6% on average, which is slightly higher compared to the prior year, when the average was 72.0%. Average daily room rates in January, February and March of 2026 were the same as the previous year on average. Expenditures and encumbrances General Fund The city’s total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances – those funds either spent or committed for specific expenses – through the month of March 2026,the ninth month of the fiscal year, are $190.9 million, compared to $186.4 million at the same time last year. The remaining budget available through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, is $73.7 million, or 27.9% of the total that was approved by the City Council. Excluding transfers out, primarily for future infrastructure and construction costs, and contingencies and non-departmental charges, the percentage available on March 31, 2026, is 27.7%, 0.6% more than the 27.1% available in the prior year on March 31, 2025. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 9 of 34 Pension funding The cost of California Public Employees' Retirement System, or CalPERS, the state pension system for government employees and pension funding, has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies like the City of Carlsbad. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan, and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS has continued to address a structural shortfall in the plan’s assets to cover unfunded actuarial liabilities, the shortfall when a pension plan's assets are less than the value of the promised benefits it owes to current and future retirees. The city actively manages its unfunded pension costs in support of CalPERS’ strategies for plan sustainability and as part of the city’s strategic, long-term approach to financial management. Since fiscal year 2016-17, the City Council has approved additional discretionary payments of $56.4 million to decrease future costs related to the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and strive to achieve a funded status of 80% in accordance with City Council Policy No. 86. CalPERS’ latest valuation report (as of June 30, 2024) indicated the city had a combined pension funded status of 75.7%, improved from the prior year’s status of 73.7%. This increase was predominantly driven by CalPERS’ fiscal year 2023-24 investment return of 9.3%, which was above its target of 6.8%, and will be reflected in the city’s required CalPERS contributions in fiscal year 2025-26. The City Council approved the establishment of a public agencies post-employment benefits trust, known as a Section 115 Trust, in September 2023. This trust allows the city to stabilize pension cost volatility, maintain local control over the city’s assets and earn a potentially higher rate of return than if the assets were kept within the General Fund. The City Council approved an initial trust contribution of $10 million in September 2023, a subsequent $7.5 million contribution in October 2024 and an additional $7.5 million contribution in September 2025. This brings the total contributions to date to $25 million. As of March 31, 2026, the city’s pension trust had a balance of $29.1 million, including the initial $10 million contribution and subsequent contributions of $15 million. Since the trust was established, the investments have earned $4.3 million. Considering the assets held by CalPERS as well as the assets held in the city’s trust, the combined pension funded status as of March 2026 is 78.7%. Staff will continue to monitor the activities in the trust and report the city’s pension-funded status to the City Council quarterly. Enterprise funds The city’s water and wastewater enterprise funds1 continue to operate in line with budgeted expectations. Operations at the city’s municipal golf course, The Crossings at Carlsbad, have remained relatively consistent year over year. 1 Enterprise funds are government funds usually used to account for operations that are financed and operated in a manner similar to private business enterprises, with the services provided paid for primarily through user charges. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 10 of 34 Next Steps Staff will continue to develop tools to understand the economy, attract businesses and cultivate talent, and provide quarterly updates to the City Council on the economic outlook and the city’s finances. Staff will return to the City Council in May 2026 with a third-quarter financial and economic review. Environmental Evaluation The proposed actions are not a “project” as defined by California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, Section 21065 and CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5) and do not require environment review under CEQA Guidelines Section 15060(c)(3) and 15061(b)(3), because the proposed action to receive economic and financial updates are organizational or administrative government activities that do not involve any commitment to any specific project which may result in a potentially significant physical impact on the environment. Any subsequent action or direction stemming from the proposed actions may require preparation of an environmental document in accordance with CEQA or the CEQA Guidelines. Exhibits 1. Carlsbad Economic Scan - FY 2025-26 - Third Quarter 2. March 2026 Financial Status Report May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 11 of 34 1 Third Quarter, Fiscal Year 2025-26 The following scan provides an overview of key economic indicators for January, February, and March 2026 for the City of Carlsbad. This economic scan is updated quarterly to provide information that is relevant to the health of Carlsbad’s economy. For regularly updated information regarding the Carlsbad economy and economic development visit carlsbadca.gov/economy. GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT Carlsbad GRP (Source: Lightcast, 2026) $18.6B In 2026, Carlsbad had the second largest gross regional product in San Diego County at more than $18.6B, only trailing the City of San Diego. From 2024 to 2025, Carlsbad’s GRP grew by $700 million (adjusted). Some industries saw growth, like hospitality and tourism, real estate, and health care, while others saw declines, like manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services (commonly known as research and development), and office administrative services. JOBS Unemployment Rate (Source: California Employment Development Department, March 2026 Report) Unemployment in Carlsbad remained consistent with nearly full employment during the third quarter, though labor market conditions continued to moderate. The unemployment rate hovered around 4%, reflecting stable hiring activity compared to the end of 2025. National data also shows a cooling labor market, with declining job openings and softer private- sector hiring. While layoffs remain relatively low, employers are taking a more measured approach to expansion heading into 2026. The gap in the October 2025 unemployment data occurred because a 43-day federal government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from conducting its essential monthly household survey. The BLS was unable to collect the survey data used to calculate the national unemployment rate and labor force participation for that period. This was the first time in over 75 years that a monthly unemployment rate was not published. Economic Development Department Gross Regional Product Released May 12, 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Unemployment Rate Comparison Last 12-Months Carlsbad San Diego County California North County Avg w/o Carlsbad 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Carlsbad Unemployment Rate 2022 -2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Exhibit 1 May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 12 of 34 2 Job Postings (Source: Lightcast, January - March 2026) 5,648 Job postings totaled 5,648 during the third quarter, up from the previous quarter, reflecting more stable hiring activity among Carlsbad employers. National job openings continued to decline through year-end, signaling ongoing cooling in labor demand. While layoffs remain relatively low and hiring persists in sectors such as health care and transportation, employers are taking a more measured approach to expansion. Shorter posting durations compared to prior years suggest a more balanced labor market and improved candidate availability. In-Demand Skills (Source: Lightcast, March 2026) Job Postings This Quarter Marketing, Project Management, and Audit skills are currently among the most in-demand skills for Carlsbad employers, showing rapid projected growth. However, a noticeable gap remains in the availability of these skills, as seen by the lower frequency in job postings compared to professional profiles. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 13 of 34 3 CAPITAL Interest Rates (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 2026) The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance following its December 2025 rate cut. While the benchmark rate remains in the 4.00–4.25% range, borrowing costs continue to constrain business expansion and housing affordability. By March, Treasury yields were approximately 3.68% for the 1-year, 4.30% for the 10-year, and 4.88% for the 30-year. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to recent years, contributing to slower housing activity and more measured capital investment decisions heading into 2026. March 2025 One-year interest rate 4.17% 10-year interest rate 4.58% 30-year interest rate 4.83% March 2026 One-year interest rate 3.68% 10-year interest rate 4.30% 30-year interest rate 4.88% COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Market Vacancy Rates and Rent per Square Foot (Source: CoStar, March 2026) The commercial real estate market in Carlsbad remained stable but continued to normalize during the third quarter. Industrial vacancy increased to 10.55% (down 1.5 percentage points from the prior quarter), office vacancy increased to 14.83%, and retail vacancy decreased to 4.72% (up 0.38 points). While vacancy has increased only across the office and industrial sectors, Carlsbad continues to perform comparably or slightly better than the broader San Diego region, where higher net absorption has lead to increasing tenant expansion. Rental rates increased across all product types. Average asking rents per square foot, per year reached $44.41 for retail, $38.95 for office, and $22.45 for industrial space. Rising rents alongside incremental vacancy gains suggest a market adjusting to slower demand rather than experiencing distress, though higher rental costs remain a challenge for small and growing businesses. 10.55% Industrial vacancy rate $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00$45.00 $50.00 Retail Office Industrial Retail Office Industrial Carlsbad North County w/o Carlsbad Market Rent Per SF 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2024 2025 2026 Carlsbad Commercial Vacancy Rates Carlsbad Retail Carlsbad Office Carlsbad Industrial May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 14 of 34 4 TOURISM Hotel occupancy in Carlsbad increased into the first quarter for the start of the year. January (63.4%), February (73.1%) and March (78.9%). While Carlsbad continues to perform well as a destination market, occupancy is becoming more sensitive to shifts in traveler sentiment and broader economic uncertainty due to consumer pricing. Compared to last years quarter end, March outperformed by 5.8 percentage points compared to 2025 occupancy. 42 With 42 hotels in Carlsbad, tourism is a major industry in terms of employment and economic impact. It is also a major contributor to city revenue, through TOT and sales tax generation. Below are several indicators reflecting the health of the city’s tourism economy. Hotel Occupancy (Source: Smith Travel Research, March 2026 Report) Carlsbad’s average daily room rate (ADR) increased during the first quarter compared to 2025 levels. Janurary ADR measured $184.67, followed by $199.82 in Feburary and $228.21 in March, reflecting typical seasonal increasing after the year end of 2025. March ADR increased approximately 4.6% year-over-year, indicating some rate compression compared to the prior year. While occupancy improved year-over-year in the last three months, hotel operators appear to have adjusted pricing to sustain demand heading into year-end. Hotel Average Daily Room Rate (Source: Smith Travel Research, March 2026 Report) Hotels in Carlsbad 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar 2024 2025 2026 Hotel Occupancy Trend 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebMar 2024 2025 2026 Hotel Average Daily Rate Trend 0102030405060708090 Hotel Occupancy Last 12 Months City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Average Daily Rate Last 12 Months City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 15 of 34 5 INCOME + HOUSING Median Household Income (Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, the latest year available) Median household income in Carlsbad continues to exceed county income levels. The median income for a household in Carlsbad in 2023 was $139,326, (adjusted for inflation), which was $5,200 higher than the previous year, and $36,000 more than the county median household income. Carlsbad has generally outpaced the region in terms of household income growth. Median Home Price (Source: Zillow.com Home Value Index - March 2026) Home values in Carlsbad remained elevated during the third quarter but showed signs of leveling off late in the year. The median home value reached approximately $1.40 million in January, before easing slightly to $1.37 million in March. representing a 7.6% increase year-over-year since 2025. This modest pullback from the fall peak suggests price stabilization following several years of strong appreciation. Home values in Carlsbad crept higher through most of 2025, which bucked the trend of the rest of North County. Higher mortgage rates and affordability constraints continue to influence buyer activity, contributing to a more balanced housing market heading into 2026. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023_ City of Carlsbad Median Household Income $123,409 $112,933 $124,669 $146,596 $139,326_ County of San Diego Median Household Income $70,588 $74,855 $79,324 $98,928 $102,285_ City of Carlsbad Per Capita Income $63,079 $57,607 $65,430 $66,944 $70,896_ County of San Diego Per Capita Income $40,389 $39,737 $44,377 $46,957 $49,891_ $- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $1,400,000.00 $1,600,000.00 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Median Home Price Comparison, Last 12 Months Carlsbad Escondido Oceanside San Marcos Vista May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 16 of 34 6 BUSINESS ACTIVITY Building Permits (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2026) Building activity strengthened during the first quarter of 2026. Residential permits totaled 737, a slight decrease of 6.9% year-over-year compared to 792 permits in the year prior. Commercial permits reached 147, up significantly from 93 in the same quarter last year, representing a 58.1% year-over-year increase. The rebound in commercial permitting suggests renewed development activity and improved investor confidence heading into 2026. Business Licenses (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2026) A total of 2,169 business licenses were issued in the third quarter, including 1072 non-residential, 733 residential, and 814 outside- the-city licenses. This represents a modest 6.3% decrease year- over-year compared to the prior year. The number of licenses issued does not reflect the number of businesses in Carlsbad as a business may carry multiple licenses, short-term vacation rentals are required to get a license, and businesses outside of Carlsbad that do business in the city or with the city are required to get a license. It is estimated that there are approximately 6,620 businesses in Carlsbad at the end of 2025. Carlsbad Businesses by City Council District 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Commercial Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Residential 2023 2024 2025 2026 Building Permits Issued Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2024 2025 2026 Business Licenses Issued by Quarter Non-Residential Residential Outside City Total May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 17 of 34 7 BUSINESS ACTIVITY Continued Largest Employers (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2026) The following is a list of the largest employers by City Council district based on information about total employment as submitted by a business during the business license process. New Businesses in Carlsbad (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2026) New businesses are defined as entities that have received a license for a location where they previously did not exist. This could also include existing businesses that have changed ownership or business license type. The information below includes new non-residential businesses in the city according to business license filings. District 1 • Carlsbad Village Yoga Co-Op • Bayshire Carlsbad• Carlsbad by the Sea • Hospice of the North Coast • Sprouts Farmers Market District 2 • Thermo Fisher • LEGOLAND• lonis Pharmaceuticals • Viasat • GenMark Diagnostics District 3 • Park Hyatt Aviara Resort • Costco • Four Seasons Residence Club Aviara • Hilton Garden Inn• Vons District 4 • Omni La Costa • Ralphs • Vons • Casa De Bandini• Apple Carlsbad Oro Cleaners Saltwater Integrative Bodywork Vicarious Athletics Asylum Sports Nutrition IThai Massage And Spa Copperhead Therapy Group Cultivate And Flourish RNR Skin Therapy Rhea Lana Of North Coast SD Carlsbad Village Pharmacy Vivi Massage Spa Mantra Raja Thai Restaurant Columbia Sportswear- Aria Mental Health The Origin Way IncMonarch Dermatology Inc Infocoreid The Suite And Place Salon Beloved BalayageJordan Harris Shopdamit Joie Children’s Products Inc My Physio For Life Modern Sessions Training Center Brooklyn Caban Ember & Olive Hair Gallery Soul Tide Therapy District 1 District 4 District 3 District 2 Business License Activity by District District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 New 12 11 2 1 Renewing 322 545 92 84 Total 335 556 94 85 May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 18 of 34 8 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Life Sciences (Source: City of Carlsbad and Lightcast - 2026) The Life Sciences industry cluster employs 6,403 workers across 115 firms and experienced a 17% increase in employment between 2020 and 2025. The cluster is 5.18 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $170,820. San Diego County and California have historically experienced parallel employment growth in the Life Sciences cluster. Between 2010 and 2020, employment in Carlsbad surged by 75%, with a particularly strong 40% growth from 2016 to 2018. While growth slowed between 2018 and 2020, the sector rebounded significantly, growing 17% between 2019 and 2024. Technology (Source: City of Carlsbad and Lightcast - 2026) The Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) cluster employs 8,662 workers across 327 firms in Carlsbad and is 2.18 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average. Annual wages per worker average $181,562, and the ICT industry cluster experienced a 5% increase in the number of jobs between 2020 and 2025. Between 2010 and 2020, San Diego County and California experienced steady parallel growth in ICT, while Carlsbad saw an initial decline from 2012 to 2015. However, since 2015, employment in Carlsbad’s ICT sector has trended upward. From 2020 to 2025, employment in Carlsbad grew by 5%, compared to San Diego County which did not have any growth across the industry. Cleantech (Source: City of Carlsbad and Lightcast - 2026) Between 2020 and 2025, the number of workers employed at Cleantech firms increased by 15%. Across the industry cluster, 36 Cleantech firms in Carlsbad employed more than 4,131 people. The average annual wage per worker is $200,304, and the Cleantech industry cluster in Carlsbad is 4.38 times more concentrated than the national average. Carlsbad’s Cleantech industry initially declined between 2010 and 2012 before experiencing steady growth through 2020. While employment growth peaked in California and San Diego County in 2013, Carlsbad has continued its upward trend. Between 2020 and 2025, employment in Carlsbad’s Cleantech sector grew 15%, significantly outpacing the 3% growth in San Diego County. Sports & Active Lifestyle (Source: City of Carlsbad and Lightcast - 2026) The Sports & Active Lifestyle industry cluster employs 1,776 workers across 113 firms and experienced a 28% increase in employment between 2020 and 2025. The cluster is 17.37 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $134,176. Previously, Carlsbad’s employment in the Sports & Active Lifestyle cluster had been on a steady decline since 2013. San Diego County and California also saw declines starting in 2015, with sharp drops between 2019 and 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Carlsbad experienced a strong recovery, with employment increasing 28% between 2019 and 2024, significantly outpacing San Diego County’s 9% growth. Hospitality & Tourism (Source: City of Carlsbad and Lightcast - 2026) Carlsbad’s Hospitality & Tourism cluster is about 1.42 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and employs 14,170 people across 674 businesses. Hospitality & Tourism experienced a sharp 15% decrease in employment between 2019 and 2024, driven by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2019 and 2020. Average annual wages per worker remain low relative to other key industry clusters, with workers earning $44,930 on average. Carlsbad, San Diego County, and California saw severe employment declines in the Hospitality & Tourism sector between 2019 and 2020 as businesses such as theater companies, amusement parks, and arcades shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the sector has struggled to recover, Carlsbad experienced a 15% decline from 2020 to 2025, exceeding the 1% decline in San Diego County. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 19 of 34 9 INDUSTRY IMPACT Largest Industries (Source: Lightcast, March 2026) Carlsbad’s economy significantly exceeds the national average for jobs in manufacturing, accommodation & food services, and professional, scientific & technical services. These sectors, which would include tech, life sciences, and other innovation industries are generally more resilient to recessions, also represent significant job growth in the economy. GRP by Industry Industry size by employment May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 20 of 34 10 INNOVATION Patents (Source: 2024 Carlsbad Patent Study) The Carlsbad innovation economy is powered by the key industry clusters of Life Sciences, Information & Communications Technology, Sports Innovation & Design and Clean Technology. The figure below shows consistently strong patent activity over the past decade with an elevated level from 2017-2020. Patents are a key indicator of economic competitiveness and growth. In the case of Carlsbad it also demonstrates the diversity of the economy along with other economic drivers such as tourism. Carlsbad Patents by Industry 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Carlsbad Patents by Year, 2013-2023 The highest number of patents are issued in the broad manufacturing category which includes technology, electronics, apparel, sporting goods, and transportation. Complimenting this are the patents issued in the information category which includes satellite, wireless, and wired telecommunications. Patents in these two categories demonstrate a vibrant innovation ecosystem. Released May 12, 2026 The quarterly economic scan is developed by the City of Carlsbad Economic Development Department. For more information, visit carlsbadca.gov/economy, or contact the team at business@carlsbadca.gov. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Patent Count per Year by Industry (2013-2023) Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 21 of 34 Exhibit 2 This report summarizes the City of Carlsbad’s General Fund revenues and expenditures through March 31, 2026. It compares revenues and expenditures for the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-26 and fiscal year 2024-25. In addition, the financial status of the Water, Wastewater and Golf Course Enterprise Funds are included. This report is for internal use only. The figures presented here are unaudited and have not been prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. General Fund Revenues Property Taxes ($59.7 million) – The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. According to the County of San Diego Assessor’s Office, assessed values in Carlsbad have increased by 4.3% for fiscal year 2025-26. This is the 13th year in a row that Carlsbad’s assessed values have increased from year to year, and in line with assessed value increases with other cities in San Diego County for the year. The increase in this year’s assessed values is due to increases in the assessed values of residential, 5.3%, industrial, 3.4%, properties in the city and commercial, 4.5%. This is the 11th year in a row since the Great Recession ended that the city saw increases in assessed values in all three property components (residential, commercial and industrial). Although increases in residential assessed values were recorded for fiscal year 2025-26 and for-sale home prices are remaining steady, the county is experiencing historically low for-sale housing inventory as higher interest rates are decreasing home affordability. The property taxes for the first nine months of the fiscal year have increased by 3% when compared to the prior fiscal year. The primary reasons for the increase are: Current taxes are up by $1.5 million or 3.7% mainly due to increased assessed property values. The first installment of taxes for the fiscal year was received by the city in December. Supplemental taxes are up $63,000 or 8%, these taxes are driven by the change in assessed value due to changes in property ownership. Aircraft taxes are down $291,000 or 10% due to a decrease in aircraft assessed values. Sales Taxes ($40.8 million) – For the first nine months of the fiscal year, sales tax revenues are $40.8 million, or 9%, lower than the same period in the previous fiscal year. Sales tax revenues to date for the current fiscal year represent the city’s sales tax revenues for May and June 2025 and the third and fourth calendar quarters of calendar year 2025 as well as the first advance for the first calendar quarter of 2026. In fiscal year 2021-22, the city experienced accelerated recovery after the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal year 2022-23 saw historically high levels of sales tax revenues driven by inflation and sustained by consumer demand. Fiscal year 2023-24 and 2024-25 revealed a leveling from sales growth and slowdown in consumer activity. This leveling off continues into the current fiscal year as revenue trends remain slightly lower than a year ago overall. Consumers are more likely to wait for greater improvement of household economic conditions before extending themselves again, inspiring the next sales tax growth cycle. March 31, 2026 3% -9% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 22 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 2 The largest economic segments in the city are automobile dealers, general consumer goods, and restaurants. Together, they generate approximately 70% of the city’s sales tax revenues. For sales occurring in the fourth calendar quarter of 2025 (the most recent data available), Carlsbad’s cash basis sales were down 0.8%, when compared to the fourth calendar quarter of 2024. The city’s largest sector, auto dealers, showed a 14% decline in new car sales. General consumer goods also experienced a decrease of 8%, offset by a 19% increase in business and industry and a 5% increase in the city’s county pool allocation. On an economically adjusted basis, the city’s sales tax receipts were down approximately 3.6% over the previous year and driven mainly by timing and audit adjustments but also by a decline in consumer demand, likely in response to the sustained inflationary period and geopolitical conflict. Transient Occupancy Tax ($26.4 million) – The city’s third highest General Fund revenue source on an annual basis is Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT or hotel tax), estimated at $35.8 million for the current fiscal year. A tax of 10% of the rent amount is collected on all occupancies less than 30 days (transient) in duration. Year-to-date TOT figures represent taxes collected on hotel receipts through the month of February 2026. TOT collected for the first nine months of the fiscal year reflects a slight decrease of $168,000 or 1%, when compared to the previous year. Currently, there are approximately 5,000 hotel rooms in the city and 400 registered short-term vacation rentals. The average occupancy of hotel rooms over the most recent 12 months has been 72.6%, which is slightly higher when compared to this time last year of 72.0%. Average daily room rates in January, February and March of 2026 were the same as the previous year on average. Business License Tax ($5.0 million) – All entities doing business in the City of Carlsbad are required to have a valid business license. Business license revenue is estimated at $6.8 million for the current fiscal year. Business license revenues are up by $53,000, or 1%, from the previous fiscal year. The increase is due to an increase in penalty revenue from overdue business license renewals when compared to the prior year. A total of 4,601 business licenses have been issued fiscal year to date, including 1,840 non-residential, 1,111 residential (home-based) and 1,650 outside the city licenses. This represents a small 2% decrease when compared to the prior fiscal year during the same period. Interdepartmental Charges ($4.3 million) – Interdepartmental charges are up by $300,000 or 7% when compared with the same period last year. These charges are generated through engineering services charged to capital projects; reimbursed work from other funds; and miscellaneous interdepartmental expenses charged to funds outside the General Fund for services performed by departments within the General Fund. The increase this year is the result of the budgeted increase in reimbursed work and miscellaneous interdepartmental expense charged from the General Fund to other funds, which is based on the city’s most recent cost allocation plan. Income from Investments and Property ($7.8 million) – For the first nine months of the fiscal year, income from investments and property is up $1.5 million compared to the previous fiscal year. This increase is due to several factors including a 17.8% rise in the average yield from 3.0% as of March 2025 to 3.5% as of March 2026 as well as interest earned of $1.5 million fiscal year to date on the city’s Section 115 Pension Trust. The City Council approved the establishment of a Section 115 Pension Trust in 2023 for purposes of mitigating CalPERS’ volatility, maintaining 7% 23% 1% -1% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 23 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 3 local control over city assets and preparing for potential future decreases in CalPERS’ discount rate. An initial contribution of $10 million was authorized by the City Council followed by a second annual contribution of $7.5 million in October 2024 and a third contribution of $7.5 million authorized in September 2025. Inflation which had been on a historic rise for much of 2022 and into 2023 which resulted in the Federal Reserve increasing benchmark rates all the way to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% as of July 2023, the highest it has been in more than 20 years. The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in late 2024, first lowering the range to 4.75%-5.0% in September, followed by further reductions to 4.5%-4.75% in November and 4.25%-4.5% in December. This range remained in place until September 2025 when rates continued to be cut all the way down to 3.5%-3.75%. These rates have held steady since then and this pause in rate adjustments reflects a continued monitoring on labor market strength and lingering inflation. Recreation Fees ($2.5 million) – Recreation fees are generated through instructional classes, camps, youth and adult sports, special events, parent participation preschool, senior programs, and various aquatic programs. Recreation revenues are up by $171,000 compared to last year at this time. The increase in revenue is attributable to an increase in recreation swim when compared to the prior fiscal year. This is due to the fact that Alga Norte Pool was closed for a few months for refurbishment in the prior fiscal year. The city should experience an increase in swim revenue later next fiscal year from the Monroe Street Pool which has been closed for a reconstruction project since April 2025. The pool is currently under construction with plans to reopen later in calendar year 2026. Development Related Revenues ($3.5 million) – Development related revenues, which include building permits, planning fees, building department fees, and engineering fees, reflect a 7% increase, or $219,000, for the first nine months of the fiscal year when compared to the same time last year. Development related fees are paid by developers to cover a portion of the cost of reviewing and monitoring development activities, such as plan checks and inspections. Engineering plan check fees are one of the first fees paid during the initial stages of development. Activity during the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 included permits associated with the new residential construction of 11 second dwelling units across the city, 19 condominiums at Marja Acres, 10 condos at La Costa Town Square and one permit for The Roosevelt Apartments and various homeowner improvements. Commercial and industrial building permit activity included 10,880 square feet at Marja Acres and 5,593 square feet at The Roosevelt Apartments. One source of development related revenue is building permits, which are $1.2 million for the current fiscal year compared to $1.4 million from the prior fiscal year, a decrease of $193,000. This decrease is attributable to permit fees received in the prior fiscal year for the Tower 24 Ponto Beach townhome project (86 units). Franchise Tax ($2.8 million) – Franchise taxes are generated from public utility sources, such as San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), trash collection franchises, and cable franchises conducting business within city limits. Franchise tax revenue is estimated to be $7.2 million for the current fiscal year. Year-to-date franchise taxes are $5,000 higher, or 0.2%, when compared to the same period last year. Cable television franchise revenues (Spectrum and AT&T) are down $176,000 representing a decrease in the number of subscription service subscribers (premium video, equipment rental, on-demand, and programming services) as more customers continue to move to streaming services. The decrease in cable television franchise 0.2% 7% 7% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 24 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 4 revenues is offset by an increase of $180,000 in trash collection franchise revenue, which resulted from the city’s most recent contract with Republic Services, the city’s waste services provider. SDG&E pays franchise taxes for the use of public land over which they transport gas and electric services. In addition, SDG&E pays an “in-lieu” franchise tax based on the value of gas and electricity transported through SDG&E lines but purchased from another source. The “in-lieu” tax was put in place to capture the franchise taxes on gas and electricity that is transported using public lands, but which would not otherwise be included in the calculations for franchise taxes. Approximately 50% of the city’s franchise taxes are anticipated to be received from SDG&E in April 2026. Ambulance Fees ($5 million) – The city bills any individual who is transported in one of the city’s ambulances. Through March 2026, receipts from ambulance fees are down $313,000, or 6%, compared to last fiscal year. The decrease in revenue for the first nine months of the fiscal year is mainly due to decreases in transports. Billable transports totaled 4,931 in the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-26 versus 5,492 at the same time in the prior fiscal year. Other Revenue Sources ($1.6 million) – Other revenue sources have increased by $1.1 million when compared to the prior year and include revenues received by the city to offset the costs of special studies or projects for developers; reimbursements for damage done to city streets, rights-of-way, and other city- owned property; donations; and miscellaneous reimbursed expenses. The increase to date when compared to the prior fiscal year is related to an insurance reimbursement of $1.2 million that was received by the city in the current fiscal year. Other Licenses and Permits ($1 million) – Other licenses and permits consist of fire protection services, right-of-way, lagoon, grading, hazardous uses, and other miscellaneous permit revenues. These permits usually increase/ decrease along with increases/decreases in development activity. Other licenses and permit revenues can vary throughout the year. To date, the decrease of $35,000 over the prior year is primarily a result of decreased coastal development, right of way and fire protection permits received. Fines and Forfeitures ($383,000) – Fines and forfeitures represent fees collected for code violations, parking citations, overdue fines, and returned checks. The city recognizes revenues when the citizen pays the fine or forfeiture, as opposed to when the fine is imposed. The increase to date of $105,000 is due to an increase of $83,000 in parking citations and $16,000 in code violations when compared to the previous fiscal year. The increase in parking citations is mainly due to the enforcement of the state’s new daylighting law which makes it illegal to park a vehicle within 20 feet of any marked or unmarked crosswalks. Intergovernmental Revenues ($1.1 million) – Intergovernmental revenues include homeowners property tax exemption revenue and miscellaneous receipts and grants received from the state or federal governments, as well as local school districts. This year’s decrease to date of $864,000 when compared to the previous year includes reimbursements of $930,000 received in the prior year from FEMA related to the city’s COVID reimbursement claims. These decreases were offset by an increase of $36,000 in state mandated claim reimbursements and an increase of $23,000 from the school district for the district’s cost share of school resource officers. -6% -3% 247% -45% 38% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 25 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 5 Transfer Taxes ($1.1 million) – When real property is sold, the County Assessor’s Office charges a transfer tax. The transfer tax rate in San Diego County is $0.0011 multiplied by the selling price of the property. The city receives 50% of the transfer tax charged for sales within the City of Carlsbad. Revenues increased by $198,000 over the same period last year due to an increase in property transfers. Other Charges or Fees ($1.2 million) – Other charges or fees are generated through the sale of city documents, such as staff reports, blueprints and copies; general fees collected for false alarms, easements and agreements, weed abatement and kiosk signs; and general services, such as fire mutual aid response, mall police services, emergency response services, reports, etc. These fees are down by 496,000 or 29% primarily due to a decrease in fire mutual aid response reimbursements when compared to the prior fiscal year. Mutual aid reimbursements can vary year to year depending on the number and severity of out of area fire events where Carlsbad is providing aid and support. A detailed schedule of General Fund revenues is provided below: 23% -29% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 26 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 6 REVENUE REVENUE EXPECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL CHANGE FROM BUDGETED THROUGH FY 2025 FY 2026 YTD 2025 TO PERCENT FOR FY 2025-26 03/31/26 AS OF 03/31/25 AS OF 03/31/2026 YTD 2026 CHANGE TAXES PROPERTY TAX $100,105,610 $59,955,159 $58,034,035 $59,749,832 $1,715,797 3% SALES TAX 57,847,173 46,506,675 44,915,454 40,851,612 (4,063,842) -9% TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX 35,822,721 26,810,789 26,576,542 26,408,380 (168,162) -1% FRANCHISE TAX 7,188,534 2,908,355 2,766,080 2,770,917 4,837 0% BUSINESS LICENSE TAX 6,750,302 5,404,061 4,987,990 5,040,629 52,639 1% TRANSFER TAX 1,724,744 943,771 865,597 1,063,966 198,369 23% TOTAL TAXES 209,439,084 142,528,810 138,145,698 135,885,336 (2,260,362) -2% INTERGOVERNMENTAL VEHICLE LICENSE FEES 145,000 145,000 181,367 175,864 (5,503) -3% HOMEOWNERS EXEMPTIONS 300,000 150,000 159,502 158,411 (1,091) -1% OTHER REIMBURSEMENT 782,027 694,782 1,588,112 730,774 (857,338) -54% TOTAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL 1,227,027 989,781 1,928,981 1,065,049 (863,932) -45% LICENSES AND PERMITS BUILDING PERMITS 2,218,000 1,542,064 1,445,387 1,252,311 (193,076) -13% OTHER LICENSES & PERMITS 1,215,697 966,158 1,085,887 1,051,217 (34,670) -3% TOTAL LICENSES & PERMITS 3,433,697 2,508,223 2,531,274 2,303,528 (227,746) -9% CHARGES FOR SERVICES PLANNING FEES 912,000 705,527 614,150 649,060 34,910 6% BUILDING DEPARTMENT FEES 855,000 618,560 544,781 778,196 233,415 43% ENGINEERING FEES 818,000 536,006 675,684 819,279 143,595 21% AMBULANCE FEES 6,800,000 5,231,134 5,399,991 5,086,437 (313,554) -6% RECREATION FEES 3,330,000 2,344,391 2,321,620 2,493,012 171,392 7% OTHER CHARGES OR FEES 1,889,400 1,495,527 1,704,091 1,207,764 (496,327) -29% TOTAL CHARGES FOR SERVICES 14,604,400 10,931,145 11,260,317 11,033,748 (226,569) -2% FINES AND FORFEITURES 388,200 273,072 277,838 382,850 105,012 38% INCOME FROM INVESTMENTS & PROPERTY 8,677,570 5,430,512 6,406,819 7,856,741 1,449,922 23% INTERDEPARTMENTAL CHARGES 5,316,999 3,950,022 4,058,048 4,355,483 297,435 7% OTHER REVENUE SOURCES 301,700 253,064 466,344 1,617,420 1,151,076 247% TRANSFERS IN 0 0 0 0 0 0% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $243,388,677 $166,864,628 165,075,319 $164,500,155 ($575,164) -0.3% (1) (1) Calculated General Fund revenues are 1% below estimates as of March 31, 2026. GENERAL FUND REVENUE COMPARISON May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 27 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 7 Expenditures Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances – those funds either spent or committed for specific expenses – through the month of March 2026 (the first nine months of the fiscal year) are $190.9 million, compared to $186.4 million at the same time last year. The remaining budget available through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, is $73.7 million, or 27.9%. If funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year, the General Fund would have 27.1% or $69.5 million available. Excluding transfers out, contingencies, and non- departmental charges, the percentage available on March 31, 2026, is 27.7%, 0.6% more than the 27.1% available on March 31, 2025. The fiscal year 2025-26 budget was developed with a focus that invests in the community’s highest priorities, sets aside money for future infrastructure needs and grows the city’s cash reserves – all while supporting the continued delivery of top-quality services the Carlsbad community expects. As in recent prior year budgets, the adopted budget prioritizes the goals in the City Council’s 5-Year Strategic Plan, which was based on input from thousands of community members and approved in 2022. While the broader economy continues to present challenges, Carlsbad is well-positioned to adapt. The adopted budget for fiscal year 2025-26 is a focused, responsible and responsive budget – one that addresses both internal and community priorities and sustains high-quality services without accelerating any projected financial deficit over the next five years. The adopted General Fund budget for fiscal year 2025-26 increased by 1.7% or $3.9 million when compared to last fiscal year due to:  Increased personnel costs (increase of $10.9 million or 8%): o $6.1 million in salaries and wages due to negotiated salary increases was well as the addition of 4.6 full- time equivalent positions. The new positions included one accountant in the Finance Department, one analyst in the Human Resources Department with the remaining increases in part-time positions across various departments. o $3.3 million in retirement benefits costs. o $1.1 million in health insurance costs. o $0.4 million increase in other personnel costs (Medicare, unemployment and disability benefits).  Increased maintenance and operations costs (increase of $4.7 million or 7%): o Fiscal year 2021-22 and 2022-23 experienced inflationary increases ranging between 4.1% and 8.3% which drove the city’s need to contain costs and identify areas for reduction with minimal service level impacts. Although inflation has declined compared to previous periods, it is still ranging between 2.5% and 3.8% thus far in fiscal year 2024-25. While it is expected that inflation will continue to slowly decrease, much uncertainty remains around the Federal Reserve’s actions to adjust target interest rates. Moreover, the uncertainty around tariff implementation continues to severely impact consumer confidence. Much of the fiscal year 2025-26 maintenance and operating budget increase is attributable to inflationary increases, Climate Action Plan initiatives, and fire mitigation efforts.  Decrease in transfers to other city funds (decrease of $13.8 million or 37%): o Per Council Policy 91, Long Term General Fund Capital Funding Policy, the city annually budgets 6% of General Fund revenues as a transfer to the Infrastructure Replacement Fund, General Capital Construction Fund and the Technology Investment Capital Fund to help fund major new construction, maintenance and replacement of city infrastructure and facilities and the city’s future technology needs. For FY 2024-25 this amounted to $14.6 million, split between these three capital project funds (42% to the Infrastructure Replacement Fund, 42% General Capital Construction Fund and 16% to the Technology Investment Capital Fund).  Increase in capital outlay ($2.7 million budgeted compared with $500,000 in the prior year): o The increase is primarily due to the Fire Department’s request to purchase a second front-line aerial ladder truck. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 28 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 8 The Fiscal Year 2025-26 Mid-Year Report, approved by the City Council on February 24, 2026, included additional appropriations of $490,000 in the General Fund for ambulance funding, PP-GEMT IGT Program, Police Department surveillance trailer, and funding for all-way stops. Additionally, as part of the March 24, 2026 City Council meeting, the Police Department requested the addition of 6 full-time employees for the establishment of a Community-Oriented Policing and Problem-Solving Team which required approximately $1.5 million of on- going funding. CalPERS and pension funding has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS addresses a structural shortfall in plan assets to cover unfunded liabilities. In support of CalPERS strategies for plan sustainability and as part of the city’s strategic, long-term approach to financial management, the city actively manages its unfunded pension liability. Since fiscal year 2016-17, the City Council has approved additional discretionary payments of $56.4 million to decrease future costs of the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and strive to achieve a minimum pension-funded ratio of 80% funded, with a target funded ratio range of 80% to 85%, in accordance with City Council Policy Statement No. 86. CalPERS’ latest actuarial valuation report (as of June 30, 2024) indicated the city had a combined pension funded status of 75.7%, increased from the prior year’s status of 73.7%. This increase was predominantly driven by CalPERS’ fiscal year 2023-24 investment return of 9.3%, above their target of 6.8% and will be reflected in the city’s required contributions in fiscal year 2025-26. The City Council approved the establishment of a Public Agencies Post-Employment Benefits Trust (Section 115 Trust) in September 2023. This trust allows the city to stabilize pension cost volatility, maintain local control over the city’s assets and earn a potentially higher rate of return than if the assets were kept within the General Fund. The City Council approved an initial trust contribution of $10 million in September 2023, a subsequent $7.5 million contribution in October 2024 and an additional $7.5 million contribution in September 2025. This brings the total contributions to date to $25 million. As of March 31, 2026, the city’s Section 115 Trust had a balance of $29.1 million. Considering the assets held by CalPERS as well as the assets held in the city’s trust, the combined pension funded status as of March 2026 is 78.7%. A detailed schedule of General Fund expenditure is provided on the next page. May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 29 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 9 ADOPTED WORKING BUDGET BUDGET AMOUNT AVAILABLE % DEPARTMENT DESCRIPTION FY 2025-26 FY 2025-26 (a) COMMITTED (b) BALANCE AVAILABLE (c) POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP CITY ATTORNEY $2,366,301 $2,394,804 $1,828,150 $566,654 23.7% CITY CLERK 1,493,122 1,554,530 1,006,925 547,605 35.2% CITY COUNCIL 641,472 642,752 452,132 190,620 29.7% CITY MANAGER 2,070,890 2,160,247 1,654,857 505,390 23.4% CITY TREASURER 320,948 320,948 208,911 112,037 34.9% COMMUNICATIONS & ENGAGEMENT 2,119,816 2,192,561 1,473,148 719,413 32.8% TOTAL POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP 9,012,549 9,265,842 6,624,123 2,641,719 28.5% ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 889,826 908,301 662,532 245,769 27.1% FINANCE 6,181,006 6,418,763 4,758,985 1,659,778 25.9% HUMAN RESOURCES 5,600,534 6,028,014 3,907,173 2,120,841 35.2% ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 963,571 1,129,716 834,077 295,639 26.2% TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES 13,634,937 14,484,794 10,162,767 4,322,027 29.8% PUBLIC SAFETY POLICE 64,138,292 65,728,020 48,842,928 16,885,092 25.7% FIRE 47,290,269 49,968,298 36,229,340 13,738,958 27.5% TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY 111,428,561 115,696,318 85,072,268 30,624,050 26.5% COMMUNITY SERVICES COMMUNITY SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 647,219 697,615 607,673 89,942 12.9% COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 11,975,702 13,650,941 9,868,859 3,782,082 27.7% HOUSING & HOMELESS SERVICES 3,317,186 3,586,247 2,375,567 1,210,680 33.8% LIBRARY & CULTURAL ARTS 15,662,271 16,235,915 11,850,480 4,385,435 27.0% PARKS & RECREATION 24,241,322 25,114,526 18,680,369 6,434,157 25.6% TOTAL COMMUNITY SERVICES 55,843,700 59,285,244 43,382,948 15,902,296 26.8% PUBLIC WORKS PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION 1,488,222 1,492,502 1,071,469 421,033 28.2% CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT & INSPECTIONS 3,250,987 3,319,851 2,442,267 877,584 26.4% ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 1,704,367 2,144,256 1,612,479 531,777 24.8% FACILITIES 7,584,723 8,524,257 6,537,784 1,986,473 23.3% TRANSPORTATION 12,173,662 12,798,192 9,479,986 3,318,206 25.9% TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS 26,201,961 28,279,058 21,143,985 7,135,073 25.2% NON-DEPARTMENTAL & CONTINGENCY (d) OTHER NON-DEPARTMENTAL 2,079,000 2,283,649 779,695 1,503,954 65.9% VILLAGE TRENCHING 0 5,220,000 0 5,220,000 100.0% OPERATING TRANSFERS OUT 23,699,119 29,699,119 23,774,343 5,924,776 19.9% CONTINGENCY 500,000 472,554 0 472,554 100.0% TOTAL NON-DEPT & CONTINGENCY 26,278,119 37,675,322 24,554,038 13,121,284 34.8% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $242,399,827 $264,686,578 $190,940,129 $73,746,449 27.9% (a) Working budget includes the adopted budget, open encumbrances from the end of the prior fiscal year, approved carry forwards of the prior fiscal year and all other mid-year council approvals. (b) Actual expenditures on a budgetary basis include encumbrances and exclude non-budgeted items. (c) Amount available would be 27.1% if funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year. (d) Other non-departmental includes property tax administration fees, assessment district administration, citywide litigation expenses, and other items not attributed to a specific department. AS OF 03/31/2026 EXPENDITURE STATUS BY DEPARTMENT GENERAL FUND May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 30 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 10 Council Contingency The City Council has allocated $500,000 in the General Fund budget for unanticipated emergencies or unforeseen program needs. Below is a summary of the activity in the City Council’s contingency account to date for fiscal year 2025-26: Donations Carlsbad Municipal Code 2.08.100 authorizes the city manager to accept donations on behalf of the city in an amount or of value of up to $5,000 per donation. These donations shall be used in accordance with the donor’s intent or added to the city’s contingency account. Below is a summary listing of all donations, that have been accepted by the city manager to date during fiscal year 2025-26: CONTINGENCY ACCOUNT USE OF FUNDS EXPLANATION AMOUNT ADOPTED BUDGET $500,000 USES: Community Sprit Grant: Carlsbad High School Lancer Day Parade (Council Policy 51)(4,387) Winning Teams Grant: Carlsbad High School Lancer Dancers (Council Resolution 2026-26)(8,059) E-bike signage and bike racks for Poinsettia and Pine Ave. Parks (Council Resolution 2026-0 (15,000) TOTAL USES (27,446) AVAILABLE BALANCE $472,554 Note 1 - City Council Policy 51 gives authorization to the City Manager, or designee, to approve Winning Teams and Community Spirit Grants up to $5,000 per grant. Department Intention Qtr. 1 Qtr. 2 Jan. Feb Mar Qtr. 3 Total Parks & Recreation Leo Carrillo Ranch Cash Donations $1,630 $1,134 $595 $349 $5,439 $6,383 $9,147 Parks & Recreation Opportunity Grant Donations 2,177 1,912 481 954 1,496 2,931 7,020 Parks & Recreation Senior Center Cash Donations 2 111 4 5 213 222 335 Parks & Recreation Senior Meals Cash Donations 4,465 4,279 1,588 1,814 1,823 5,225 13,969 Parks & Recreation Senior Transportation Cash 812 709 196 229 253 678 2,199 Parks & RecreationSpecial Events Cash Donations 00002,0002,0002,000 Parks & Recreation Teen Program Cash Donations 699 11 0 570 1,110 1,680 2,390 Subtotal - Parks & Recreation $9,785 $8,156 $2,864 $3,921 $12,334 $19,119 $37,060 Library & Cultural Arts Books $500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $500 Library & Cultural Arts Genealogy related subscriptions 0 0 0 1,046 0 1,046 1,046 Library & Cultural Arts Support Library Programs and 37 5,462 1 45 0 46 5,545 Subtotal - Library & Cultural Arts $537 $5,462 $1 $1,091 $0 $1,092 $7,091 Fire Pickleball paddles and balls $250 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $250 Fire Food gifts for station crews 0 2,390 75 65 840 980 3,370 Subtotal - Fire $250 $2,390 $75 $65 $840 $980 $3,620 Total Donations $10,572 $16,008 $2,940 $5,077 $13,174 $21,191 $47,771 Donations Fiscal Year 2025-26 May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 31 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 11 Water Enterprise Revenues  Increase in water operating revenues due to increase in user rates effective January 2026, offset by a 7.0% decrease in water volume sales.  Interest earnings decreased due to a 16.5% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio offset by a 26.7% decrease in the monthly average cash balance.  The increase in miscellaneous service charges driven by private development requests.  The increase in property taxes is primarily due to increases in assessed property values.  The increase in fines is mostly from door hanger fees.  The decrease in other revenues is from lower reimbursed work from other departments. Expenses  The increase in staffing expenses due to negotiated salary adjustments and annual required contribution to the city’s unfunded pension liability balance with CalPERS.  Higher interdepartmental expenses resulted from the annual update of the citywide cost allocation plan.  Purchased water expenses have increased from the prior year due to a 10.15% rate increase in the variable cost of water purchased from the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA), offset by a 5.43% decrease in the amount of water purchased.  Outside services increased due to increases in asphalt repairs, landscaping services, and professional services related to master plan updates. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD* YTD* YTD 2024-25 TO PERCENT FY 2025-26 3/31/2025 3/31/2026 YTD 2025-26 CHANGE REVENUES: WATER DELIVERY 52,200,000$ 32,926,549$ 35,542,063$ 2,615,514$ 7.9% INTEREST 639,500 605,769 502,541 (103,228) -17.0% MISC. SERVICE CHARGES 335,000 266,889 343,057 76,168 28.5% PROPERTY TAXES 3,599,336 2,737,593 2,833,452 95,859 3.5% FINES, FORFEITURES & PENALTIES 456,000 347,761 355,252 7,491 2.2% OTHER REVENUES 494,000 366,329 264,991 (101,338) -27.7% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 57,723,836 37,250,890 39,841,356 2,590,466 7.0% EXPENSES: STAFFING 5,306,930 3,655,385 3,993,905 338,520 9.3% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 3,902,097 2,685,367 2,927,941 242,574 9.0% PURCHASED WATER 37,820,000 23,252,609 24,872,704 1,620,095 7.0% MWD/CWA FIXED CHARGES 9,639,000 5,858,193 6,957,534 1,099,341 18.8% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 2,428,230 661,757 807,028 145,271 22.0% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 5,300,000 3,825,000 3,975,003 150,003 3.9% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 1,214,096 705,252 694,220 (11,032) -1.6% CAPITAL OUTLAY 164,796 33,510 36,732 3,222 9.6% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 65,775,149 40,677,073 44,265,067 3,587,994 8.8% OPERATING INCOME/(LOSS) (8,051,313)$ (3,426,183)$ (4,423,711)$ (997,528)$ 29.1% *Adjusted to reflect timing differences for water purchases and depreciation. WATER OPERATIONS FUND March 31, 2026 8.8% 7.0% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 32 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 12 Wastewater Enterprise Revenues  Charges for current services are higher than in the prior year due primarily to a 14% rate increase that went into effect in January 2026.  Interest earnings decreased due to a 16.5% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio offset by a 47.1% decrease in the monthly average cash balance.  The decrease in other revenues is from lower reimbursed work from other departments. Expenses  The decrease in staffing expenses is due vacancies, offset by negotiated salary adjustments in addition to annual required contribution to the city’s unfunded pension liability balance with CalPERS.  Higher interdepartmental expenses resulted from the annual update of the citywide cost allocation plan.  Encina operating costs increased due to higher staffing, energy, and insurance, partially offset by lower chemical costs; billing varies due to working capital true-up policy.  Outside services increased from increases in pipeline maintenance, rental costs, and professional services related to master plan updates.  Capital outlay increased from the installation of truck compressor system. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD* YTD* YTD 2024-25 TO PERCENT FY 2025-26 3/31/2025 3/31/2026 YTD 2025-26 CHANGE REVENUES: CHARGES FOR CURRENT SERVICES 32,934,600 19,802,584 22,367,335 2,564,751 13.0% INTEREST 275,090 241,093 166,722 (74,371) -30.8% OTHER REVENUES 323,000 294,344 256,305 (38,039) -12.9% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 33,532,690 20,338,021 22,790,362 2,452,341 12.1% EXPENSES: STAFFING 3,558,054 2,528,497 2,481,211 (47,286) -1.9% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 2,281,172 1,489,419 1,709,777 220,358 14.8% ENCINA PLANT SERVICES 6,423,397 5,334,192 5,734,922 400,730 7.5% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 1,499,221 371,765 457,243 85,478 23.0% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 8,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,003 3 0.0% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 1,100,304 488,859 487,631 (1,228) -0.3% CAPITAL OUTLAY 132,936 2,287 23,800 21,513 940.7% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 22,995,084 16,215,019 16,894,587 679,568 4.2% OPERATING INCOME/LOSS 10,537,606 4,123,002 5,895,775 1,772,773 43.0% * Adjusted to reflect timing differences for Encina quarterly invoices and depreciation. WASTEWATER OPERATIONS FUND March 31, 2026 12.1% 4.2% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 33 of 34 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 13 Golf Course Enterprise Revenues  Primary operating revenues at the golf course have remained relatively consistent year over year, and the increase in rates is offset by a slight decrease in weekday rounds.  Food and beverage increased from banquet and the player’s lounge sales.  Pro shop driven by higher sales and retail promotions, along with higher practice center revenues. Expenses  General and administrative expenses increased due to higher personnel costs and increased other operating expenses compared to the prior year.  Course and grounds slightly increased driven mostly by utility charges and other outside services.  Cost of sales increased due to higher food and beverage sales, mostly in banquets, with margins remaining stable.  Depreciation has increased from new assets placed in service for improvements and equipment.  Miscellaneous expenses slightly increased from the current year reallocation of water monitoring charges that were previously paid from the General Fund.  Capital outlay remains steady, reflecting ongoing equipment replacements and repair expenditures. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD YTD YTD 2024-25 TO PERCENT FY 2025-26 3/31/2025 3/31/2026 YTD 2025-26 CHANGE REVENUES: GOLF COURSE 5,531,000 4,193,739 4,298,163 104,424 2.5% FOOD & BEVERAGE 4,423,000 3,441,098 4,087,815 646,717 18.8% PRO SHOP 386,000 271,459 318,951 47,492 17.5% PRACTICE CENTER 494,000 389,873 445,019 55,146 14.1% OTHER REVENUES 442,700 298,026 361,979 63,953 21.5% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 11,276,700 8,594,195 9,511,927 917,732 10.7% EXPENSES: GENERAL & ADMINISTRATIVE 6,399,000 4,445,087 4,927,389 482,302 10.9% COURSE & GROUNDS 1,378,000 938,582 976,314 37,732 4.0% FOOD & BEVERAGE 378,000 283,769 324,739 40,970 14.4% PRO SHOP 73,000 33,670 79,803 46,133 137.0% COST OF SALES 1,173,000 848,483 995,734 147,251 17.4% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 1,397,000 750,000 1,047,753 297,753 39.7% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 400,000 164,064 186,438 22,374 13.6% CAPITAL OUTLAY 1,205,000 715,140 913,503 198,363 27.7% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 12,403,000 8,178,795 9,451,673 1,272,878 15.6% OPERATING INCOME/LOSS (1,126,300)415,400 60,255 (355,146) -85.5% GOLF COURSE FUND March 31, 2026 10.7% 15.6% May 12, 2026 Item #12 Page 34 of 34 Tess Sangster, Economic Development Director Rachel Maltz, Senior Program Manager & Small Business Liaison Zach Korach, Finance Director May 12, 2026 Economic and Financial Update: Q3 FY 2025-26 TODAY’S PRESENTATION •Today’s report will cover Fiscal Year 2025-26, Third Quarter o January through March 2026 •Economic update •Financial update ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 2 CARLSBAD ECONOMY •Carlsbad’s Gross Regional Product was an estimated $18.6 billion in 2025 •Carlsbad’s remains the second largest economy in San Diego County ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 3 ECONOMIC TRENDS •External factors continue to affect the economy o Small Business Sentiment on the Rise o Tariffs and trade policy o Increasing inflation and cost of goods o Weakening labor market in certain sectors o Lack of official data due to the government shutdowns o Geopolitical tensions & supply chain impacts ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 4 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 5 INFLATION Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for Western Region CARLSBAD JOBS •July through September saw 5,648 unique job postings •Jobs were posted by 1,341 different Carlsbad employers •Average salary for posted jobs was $58,900 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 7 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Carlsbad Unemployment Rate 2022 - 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 8 $- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $1,400,000.00 $1,600,000.00 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Median Home Price Comparison, Last 12 Months Carlsbad Escondido Oceanside San Marcos Vista DEVELOPMENT & BUSINESS ACTIVITY •There are an estimated 6,620 current businesses in Carlsbad •License activity remained consistently strong 9 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2024 2025 2026 Business Licenses Issued by Quarter Non-Residential Residential Outside City Total ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 10 14.83% 10.55% 4.72% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2024 2025 2026 Carlsbad Commercial Vacancy Rates Carlsbad Retail Carlsbad Office Carlsbad Industrial ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 11 TOURISM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2024 2025 2026 Hotel Occupancy Trend 78.9% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2024 2025 2026 Hotel Average Daily Rate Trend $228.21 KEY TAKEAWAYS •External factors continue to create a challenging operating environment for businesses •Tourism is on the rebound •The labor market is beginning to favor employers •Costs continue to be the top concern for businesses ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 12 GENERAL FUND REVENUES fiscal year to date through third quarter 13 GENERAL FUND REVENUES Revenue category Actual FY 2024-25 Actual FY 2025-26 $ difference % difference Property tax $58.0 $59.7 $1.7 3% Sales tax 44.9 40.8 -4.1 -9% Transient occupancy tax 26.6 26.4 -0.2 -1% Other taxes 8.6 8.9 0.3 3% Income from inv. and property 6.4 7.9 1.5 23% Development related revenue 3.3 3.5 0.2 6% Other revenues 17.3 17.3 0.0 0% Total $165.1 $164.5 -$0.6 -0.3% fiscal year to date through third quarter (in millions) 14 GENERAL FUND BUDGET ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE •Adopted budget of $242.4 million •Working budget of $264.7 million •Available budget remaining of $73.7 million, or 28% •Includes actual expenditures through March 2026 •Includes open purchase order commitments 15 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES & ENCUMBRANCES fiscal year to date through third quarter 16 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES fiscal year to date through third quarter (in millions) Category FY 2025-26 Budget As of Qtr. 3 FY 2025-26 % of Budget Spent to Date OPEN POs at 3/31/26 Personnel $146.3 $108.0 74%$0.0 Maintenance & operations 78.0 45.6 59%11.4 Transfers out 29.7 23.8 80%0.0 Capital outlay 5.0 0.6 12%1.5 Village Trenching 5.2 0.0 0%0.0 Contingency 0.5 0.0 0%0.0 Total $264.7 $178.0 67%$12.9 17 WATER AND WASTEWATER ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Compared to prior year through Quarter 3: •Water revenues are up 7% and expenses are up 9% •Wastewater revenues are up 12% and expenses are up 4% 18 GOLF COURSE ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Compared to prior year through Quarter 3: •Golf Course revenues are up 11% and expenses are up 16% 19 NEXT STEPS •Monitor revenues and expenditures •Publish economic and financial status reports: carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness carlsbadca.gov/departments/finance/financial-reports •Present fiscal year 2026-27 preliminary budget to City Council on May 19, 2026 ITEM 12: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 20