Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutGPA 09-07; Palomar Commons; General Plan Amendment (GPA) (11)April14,2010 Mr. Mark K. Radelow, LEEP AP Vice President & Senior Project Manager SUDBERRY PROPERTIES, INC. 5465 Morehouse Drive Suite 260 San Diego CA 92121 MarketPointe REALTY ADVISORS email: mark@sudprop.com RE: MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY, PALOMAR COMMONS SHOPPING CENTER, CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA Dear Mark: MarketPointe Realty Advisors has undertaken and now completed a market feasibility study for your Lowe's-anchored Palomar Commons retail center at the southwest corner of Palomar Airport Road and El Camino Real in the City of Carlsbad. The purpose of the study is to determine: •!• the demand for home improvement stores in the north San Diego County trade area; •:• The positioning of Carlsbad in the home improvement marketplace; •!• the future supply of new retail space in the market area; and •:• the mix of ancillary tenants that would most likely be attracted to the center. We have analyzed the relevant market area, looking at the retail facilities currently available in the nearby area and the demography of the population in terms of household income and education and buying power. In this report, we will concentrate on the market for the Lowe's store, as it is the primary focus of the proposed center in terms of its drawing power, importance to success of the center, and percentage of total square footage. Base data utilized in this study is from multiple sources including the San Diego Association of Governments, Claritas, U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics and MarketPointe's proprietary database. 1901 First Avenue, Suite 219, San Diego, CA 92101 I Tel: 619.233.3781 l Fax: 619.233.3203 I www.marlcetpointe.com R t A ~ T Y A C., ,. 5 Q R S The study is segmented into five sections: • Section 1 : Project Description • Section 2: Demographics and Population/Household Projections • Section 3: Retail Demand: Subject Property Trade Area • Section 4: Retail Space Leasing Market • Section 5: Findings and Conclusions: Palomar Commons Palomar Commons 2 4/14/2010 -section 1:·P.fo)eci'De~cription--Palomar Commons ---------· 1 •,_~~· The subject property ,js located at the southeast c:omer of El Camino R.eal and Palomar Airport Road in the City of Carlsbad. Average daily traffi·c (AID1) counts at that intersection are typically 35,000-40,000. The property i:s located aero~s the street from carlsbad Palomar Airport, 11ie' commuter airport for North County. El Camino Real to the property's, east~rn b:order is the prima'ry north south commercial corridor for the· cities of Entein1it~i'S and Carlsbad. The total site area is 1 t:t32 acres with 148,528 square feet of buildirtg space: 20.8% site coverage. There wlll be 858 parking spaces or a ratio of 4.4 spaces pe·r 1.0001 :square feet (th~s ,'includes 24 handicapped spaces). The [property is segmented into two parcels, west and east The western parrce.ll is 4.30 acres with 26,2:72 of smaller retail space, The eastern parcel has the Lowe's anchor retail store, a 122,256 square foot building with a 31,718 square foot garden center. The adjacent tenancies are tentatively planned for a gas station/convenience store/carwash, bank, three individual buildings with a total of 13,000 square feet and one pad of 5.000 square feet that would accommodate a free.,standfngl telilant. The ·center developer anticipates completion of tlle center by fall 2'011. The 'two aerial p'hotographs below show ~>close hi" a.nd area--Wid'e views of tine· subject property. P:rlomar Commons 3 4/14/2010 Palomar Commons 4 The City of Carlsbad currently has an estirnate'd population of 1091,611. This. represents 3.4% ofthe 3,245,279 population of San Diego County. The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) has prepared a twenty-y-ear population and household forecast (201 0~2030) for Carlsbad and the other cities, in north San Diego County. POPULAnON / HOUSEHOID FOR£CAST l010=:mD NORTH SAN DiEGO COUNTV TRADl, AREA SANOAG ZOlO 10ZO· I 203C)i AREA POP HH POP HH POP HH CARLSBAD 109,611 45,1'S1 119,095 ~,5,58 12.7,1)46 49,!99 DELMAR 4,661 2,531 5,138 I 2,544 5,¢97 2,~ ENCINiTAS 65,358 25,227 68,030 1 26,Cl54 13,170 2.7,066 OCEANSIDE 186,785 66,686 196,482 69,83.2 207,237 70,428 SAN MARCOS 82,608 28,620 90,026 3.1,032 95,5-53 3:1,696 SOLANA BEACH 13,807 6,539 141839 I 6,697 1S, 7'61 6,728 VISTA 98,182 30,911 106,075 I 33,507 115;7'68 34,947 ESCONDIDO 148,630 48,U6 158,494 I 51,404 169,9129 S3,087' REGION 709,642 254,387 158.179 I 269,628 809,961 276,397 MAAI<EII'OINTE~EALTV ADViSORs 4.Hl CHANGE IN POPUL.AllON AND HOUSEHOLDS I POPIJl.AnON 1 HOll5fHOl.b rotte'CAST iOl~lil!li SAN bAG POPUi.A1101'4 i«)U*~f.OS ARfA 1010 I lim I OIAI\IGI % CHAIIISE lm:O I 2m(! II ClfANIGI1 II" C'HANGii - CA!Rt.S!8Ai::l 109,611 127,046 17,435 16~ 45~7 49,1399 I 4\142 9% DE!.MM 4,661 5,49'7 8~6 :1.8\fli 2,5~1 2,546 15 1'<> ~NCINUTM 65.358 73,170 _2,812 ]2')(; 2:5,227 17,006 1,sae ~ oCEANSIDE 186,185 207.!a7 1Q,452 11% 66,686 70,428 ~,74>1 6'lri I SAIN MARCOS ~.600 9S,5S3 12,945 16~ 2:8,6'20 31,69'6 3,07'& I ll% SO:lANA BoACH 13;1107 15,761 1,9$4 l~ 6,S39 6,na 189 I 3'1(, VISTA ~1~ l1S,7~ 1'7,586 lS% 30,911 ~.!;147 ¢,036 I 13'l'6> I E-SOONDfDO 148,&30 169,9:!9 n,~ 14% 4IMJ,6 Sl,M7 4~97'1! 1t'fl6, I R£GION 700,642 800,961 1cli:i,Ji9 1"" 254,1187 na,7i91 ~.ow I 9')6 SIYUIICE:: SAN OlEGOASSOCIAifON OF 60i!ERP4MENT5 I liMR~£11!1(jjl\if£ RE'AllY ADVISORS .uo Palomar Commons 5 4/'d 4/20 1 0 SANDAG forecasts the household count in the City of Carlsbad to expand by 9.0% between 2010-2030 with a projection approaching 50,000 households in 2030. This total represents a change of more than 200 households annually. The relevant cities of Northwest San Diego County (Del Mar to Oceanside and east to Escondido), currently have a combined population of 709,642 comprising 21.8% of the countywide population. This population is expected to increase to 758,179 in 2020 and 809,961 by 2030. Thus, the north San Diego County trade area is anticipated to expand by 22,010 households annually during the next two decades. Note that SANDAG is projecting that the household count will not grow as fast as the population. SANDAG is therefore projecting that household sizes will grow over the next two decades. These data do not include the military stationed at Camp Pendleton in Oceanside. Currently, that military population is approximately 30,000 and is projected to expand by another 40-50% in the next few years as a result of the overall expansion of the U.S. Marine Corps. Demographic Profile To analyze the relevant demographics of the subject property, we have identified a rectangular geographic section (displayed in the graphic below) and compared it to the countywide demographics. The defined area includes Carlsbad, Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, Solana Beach, Carmel Valley and Del Mar. The reason for the selection of this macro area is discussed later in the report. The area has a current population of 238,314 compared with the countywide population estimate of 3,064,619 (Ciaritas numbers will slightly differ from SANDAG forecast figures). Population growth on a percentage basis was more robust in the county during the 1990's versus the 2000's when our defined coastal area saw more rapid growth (19.2%). The ethnic make up of the defined area is much less diverse than the county as a whole: 85.1% of the defined area is classified as Caucasian, 11.9% are Hispanic and 5% are Asian, this compares with countywide figures of 63.4% Caucasian and 30.8% Hispanic. Almost half of all residents in the defined area have at least a four-year college degree versus only 30 percent countywide. This translates to an average household income of $122,825 in the defined area versus $84,359 countywide. A much higher percentage of those employed are in typical white-collar professions. Palomar Commons 6 4/14/2010 MarlretPointe . I L- Palomar Commons 7 4/14/2010 Demographics Palomar commons I ~:X; fined A rea I C~unty I I Propul,aticm Description TOU.I J o;., T0tz11l J % 2009 tEStimate 238,314 3.064 .. 619 2000 Census 199.959 2:.8113.833 1990 Census 172:A45 2 .498.016 GFowtn 2000-20:09 19.2% '8.9% Growth 1990~20'00 H) 0%· 12 .6% 2009 est. Population by Race 1 Ethnltllty White Alone 85.1 63.4 8 1a·ck Of Amcan American Alone 1.0 5.0 Asian Alane SQI 10.2 Hispanic or Latiho: 11.91 310.8 2oog est. M~dlan Age 41 .54 34.$ 2009 En Pop. Age 25.f. ~ 4 Year Degree 48.1 30.2 2009 Est. Average Household Size 2.46 2 .75 2009 Est. Average Household Income $122.825 $84,359 200.9 Est Per Capita lnoome $ 49.90:2 $, 30.204 2~009 Civ Employed Pop 16+ by Occupation 116.088 1,372.212 Management. Business. and Flnanclal 23·.9 15.4 Professional and Related Occupations 27 9 .23.1 Service, Farming Fishing 11.6 16.2 Sal~s and Oftice 26· 5' 2.7, 1 Constn.Jction, Extraection, l'v1aintenance 5·,4 '8.5 ProdUGtir~;:~n , Trarlsportation 4!.8 $.1 2009 Oce:upied HtHJ!Ing Units Owner Occupied 71.4 9G.~ Renter Occupied 28·.6 4~.7 Attaehed 3S.S 4~.3 O~tach e:ef 5&.9 51 .3, SOUR CE: CLARrfAS MAAKETPOINTE RML TY .ADVISOR$ 4.10 Palomar Corrnnoos 8 411412010 ·r:rom a retail strength perspective, the most desirabl~ traits CJf the d~finedl all'-ea are: 'two-fold: the household income levels and the high percentage of owneN)ccupied lhou sij ng. Countywide, owner occupancy is 66.3%'. In the subjecttrade area, it i:s 71.4%, the !highest le-vel by far in San Diego County. In the graph below, it is evident that when looking a1t all household's, the percent~ge ~of ·those in Carl$bad that earn over $1 oo.,ooo is significantly trighvr tnan countywide. ProgreS$ively, as the income brackets get higtler; the discrepancy Widens. This us tthe "cream ofthe crop" in terms of income in the county. 20 18 16 14 4 0 Household lnc::ome Distribution' Defined! Area Countywide • S>•.o~~ $2S,OOO· US,OOO· $SO,OOO· $,~,000 · $100000· $1SO.OOO· $2SO,OOO· ~SOO,COO< S~4.!l!l9 H9.999 $7&.999 $99.999 $149.999 S2.,,999 $499.999 Pa~omar Commons 9 4/14/2010 MarletPcHnte ••••••••••••••• Though Lowe's and Home Depot are both home improvement retailers, their product assortment, merctlandising techniques; store layouts and business format appeal to different s·ectors of the marketplace. In other words, there is a definite overlap in merchandise; but we perceive a de·finite differential in their clllstomer bases. lowe's caters to and appeals more to the do·it;yourself ~ome.owners that are more apt to cons.ider the aesthetic aspects of their purchas;es;. Lowe's also has ar large share of the appliance business and is the second largest appliance retailer ill"l tlhe United States. !Home Depot caters more to the contractor and investor'..()wner market. This differential is particularly important in this analysis becaUJse of' the unusually high percentage of homeowners, high-income levels, and the high percentage of older. and more expensive single-family homes in the trade area. The Palomar Commons Trade Area The two p:redominant "home improvement" chains. Lowe's and Home Depot. a,re weiJJ served in tthe Highway 78 corridor stretching from Oc-eanside to Escondlido. In the vioinity !Of that corridor are four Lowe's stores. and seven Home Depot stores.. Thetre are no Lowe's or Home Depot stores in the. City of carlsbad at the present time. lOWE'S AND HOME DEPOT STOiitES HIGHWAY 78 CORRIDOR liOMEDEPOl LOWE'S 1001 N EL CAMINO REAL ENCINITAS 92024 620W MISSION ESCONDLDO 920251 l!:i50 W VAmV PKWV ESC:ONOrDo [§1(12:9 1~1 ViS>lA VlliAtiE. \llSfA 92[)83\ 1475 E VALL(Y PKWV ESCoNDiDO 9202'1 555 GMND A.\fE SANM~OOS l92'069 ~7'55 MISSION AVE, OCeANSfi.JI: 92051 15$ OlD GROVE O(EANS!DE '92:057 31!38 W VIIS'fA WAY OCE'AN~lDE 92056 L_ 551li SAN lv!ARt:oS SANMA~COS §~tlfi9 'M~o s Mh~t~n Vi5fA ~:lo~'l The trade area between the subject property and southward to Del Mar/Sorrcento Valley rema!ns eompletely unserved by Lowe's and has only one !Home Depot store, that in !Encinitas on El Camino Real. Th1us, the lirichest'i homeowner market inJ the County is entirely unse.rvedl by !Lowe's. Of equal importance to the City of Carlsbad is, the "leakage" of home improvement !business to the other cities tn1 the north .san Diego County trade Palomar ,Commons 10 4/14/2()10 area. Plainly put, Carlsbad is not getting its rightful share of the home improvement market and the tax revenue that flows from it. Retail Spending -Gap I Surplus Analysis As a primary means of determining retail demand, we use a retail opportunity gap analysis. This method combines data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, and plots the amount spent by consumers in a given area versus the amount sold by businesses in said area. As was touched upon earlier in the report, we feel very strongly that the correct identification of the target consumer market is paramount to properly analyzing the retail demand for this type of product Traditionally, a radius applioach is used. 11ooking at the surrounding equidistant five or ten mile qrings" from a subject property. For this assignment, the problem with that type of methodology is that the dynamics. of the supply and demand curve are not necessa:rily equal in a concentric radius. The Highway 78 corridor to the north of the subject site has a very strong existing retail presence-par1icularly with regard to big box home improvement stores. Starting in Escondido and heading westl just between Home Depot and Lowe's, there are nine home improvement stores. To look at the consumer expenditures and local retail sales in just the ·five-mile radius, would paint an inaccurate picture. There is simply tao much existing product along Highway 78. The key to the success o.f the subject property is acknowledging that the real market void is located south of the subject property, out to a fifteen-mile distance (Sorrento Valley/Del Mar). Despite an enormous segment of high end home owners, Home Depot has the only presence along the Coastal Corridor. For comparison's sake, the first table below gives the retail opportunity gap using the radius method. There is quite clearly a negative amount of retail demand in the five-mile radius. There are nearly orne billion dollars in surplus supply us1ng the Palomar Commons 11 4/14/2010 ~nte i.MMMWi+Hpa:aw 1radius method and looking five miles out. Consumers from wfthrn this radiius spend :$930.424A291e.ss than the stores in this radius self. Thus, these retail stores in the five~ mi·le 1radius are already drawing on tonsurners from outside this. area and are cannibalizing from outside areas. PI SURPbUS ANAb'VSIS 5 MILE RADIUS -PALOMAR COMMON'S I 2009 Demand I 2009 Supply ll Opportunity Retail ~tBUtUY I ~Expendftuntsl (Retlil Slfles) Ga!PISUI'Pius Build'tng Mate-rial, Garden ~quip Store.s $' 43-3,343,7M $ Er03,000,3S6 ' (169,i699, 597) BUiildlng Material and Supply Dealers $ 398,589,610 $ 51)4,120,4'89 $ (1&5,'53'0.819) Home Centers $ 165,3'90,.901 $ 170,487,337 $ (1 015.000,436) Paint and Wallpaper Stores $ 9,336,635 $ 14;498,708 S· (5,.1~.013} Hardware Stores $ 34,35<(.919 $ 17,765,563 $ 15,589,356 Other Building Materials Dealers $ 169,507,155 $ 261,368,880 $ (711,'86~,1'25) Building Materials, Lumberyards $ 74,132,184 $ 102,25·1,392 $ (~8. 119,208) Lawn, Garden Equipment, Supplies Stores $ 34,75•1;158 $ 38,8S2,876 $ {4, 128,718) Omdoor Power ~quipment Stores $ 5,216,,503 $ 1,320,831 s. j,895,672 I Nursery <and Garden Centers $ 29,537,,655 $ 37,562,045 S· (8_<()24, 390) Tatal Ri!tail Sali!s~nel Eating i Dnntdhg 1 3936 592 861 $ 4,867,01'7,2:90 $) (930/42.4,429 SOU~CE : CLA:RITAS (VIA CENSUS MID ElLS DAI A) WIRKETPOINTE REAL TV AD\ASORS 4,1 o The map below on the left side is tt'le typical radius map shoWing tlile five and ten rrrdle radii home improvement market The map on the right shows what we believe: will be the primary consumer draw area for the subject property. Pak)mar Commons 12 ~inte IMMM4+4M& M ifM As we shift from the site radius to our defined trade market are·a, there is. a significant differernce. Overall, there is an opportunity gap of $124,225,658 for all retai~ spending. As we focus on just building m.atertals, conS~umers ii1 this area spend mor1e than stores. in the area sell by 39%. Economically, there is $152,117,193 in consumer spending dollars being spe.nt by local consumers in stores outside the area -dl.IJe 1to a 1lack of a'.tailable supply. Using nationwide average annual sales per square foot fmm Lowes ($258) and inputting the size of the retail space at Palomar Commons (122,256 square feet) an(1 a rregional pricing premium, an expected annuall sales fur the Palomar Commons. st(:)·re of ($35,000,000 -$40,000,000 would only represent one quarter of fhe: bUir~U111Ql :garden materials retail opportunity gap that is pre-sent in th!s area. Therefore, it is. logical to ~n~sume that a lowe is t=tore would bo highly ~oeo:es!Sful at t-h~ subject property lot.ation. Palomar Commons 13 411.41201 0 --~·-·· ~•n.:e •••••••••••••••• RET Alb SPENtltNG "GAP I SURPl-US ANAl.. 'fSIS DEFINED MARKET AREA ·PAl OMAR COMMONS I 2009 Derreand I 2009· SEIPJHY I OpportunitY' Reta.JI CateOOIV I (Expendit\.in.s) (Retli'il Saleet GaiJ}IS'UliJIUS BiUiiCiling M~teriat Garden Equip St!Jf'es $ 543,312,919 $ 391 ,195.ne; $152, it?, 1'93 Eluiiding Material and Supply Oe'alers $ 499,274,,277 $ 339,8'51 ,091 $159,4>2S,1i85 Home Cenli'!Ni $ 207,305,520 $ 164,960,152 $ 4:2,345,006 Paint and Wallpaper Stores $ 11' 884,.053 $ 13,293,854 $ (1,409, 801) Hardware Stores $ 42,7130,362 $ 12,635,630 $ 30, i50,7.S2 Ot'her Building !Materials Dealers $ 237,298,341 $ 146,961,456 $ ~.~.885 Building Mllterials, lumberyards $ 93,036·,405 $ 58,275,946 $ 34, 16'(l. 4'59 Lawn, Garden !Equipment, Suppli~s Store·s $ 44,038,642 s 51,344.634 $ f7,305,9'92) Outdoor fPOWE!t Equipment Stores $ 6,645,597 $ 1,091,849 $ 5.5~.7418 N~ery and Garden Cehters $ 37,393,,045 $ 50,252,784 $ (i.2,S'59,7:S9) Total R-etail Sales lnd Eating 1 Drtnklna $ 4191,-231,,963 $4,667, 006,3o5 $12'4.~.658 SOUIRCIE: Gb/>RfT.AS (V1A CENSUS ANO 66S OATil) MORKEl POINTE RE.AL.TY . .AD\.1SORS 4.10 Suppjy of ~Develo.pa~ble Litnd ~Although identification of the supply of land available for new home improvement :stores lin tt"le trade area is beyond the scope of this report, our knowledge of thie co1as.tal Cities :in the County and the dominant trade area leads to a concl:us,ion tlht:tt the supply of sites that would be appropriate for other home improvemen1t stores i·s sparse. It is also important to note that within the City of Carlsbad, there are virtually no rundeveloped sites remaining that would accomrnodlate a home tmprovemel'lit s;tore of the Lowe's type. Typically, a Lowe's would require a ten-acre site or farger to accommodate a 120,000-130,000 square foot store plus. the outdoor garden cen1ter. ~Palomar Commons 14 4/14/2:010 S_ecUon~: ·~eta'!_ Leasing Market-San Dleg~ In recently released data from several of the major commercial real estate brdkerage firms, San Diego County is rated among the top three retail martcets in the nation 1n tenns of stability and continued strength. Whereas many markets have seen retail vacancy rates soar to the 8-10% level, San Diego's retail vacancy rate is approximately 6.0%. Vacancy rates in the County nave traditionally fbeen in the sub-3,0% range. Vacancy Role ll Unlike many of the major metropolitan areas, San Diego County has a relatively small number of big-box stores remaining empty. One year ag,o, there were approximately 50 big box stores empty as a result of the demise of several major retail clhains. Today, there are fewer than 25 vacant big-box stores and l'ocal commercial brokers indicate that most will be leased prior to the end of 2010. Construction of retail space is virtually non-existent and has been that way for the past 'SiX months. There were no new deliveries in1 the fourth quarter of 2009. This. will !help to absorb the existing space and drive the vacancy rates back down to the 3.-4% range .. 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 4003 Palomar Commons Construdion Acti vity 1009 3009 15 Under Coii:Sirurtion Dehve1IM 4009 4114/2010 MarlcletPoinle Retail Occupancy Rates: North San Diego County Trade Area 25% of the entire stock of retail space in San Diego lies in Northwestern San Diego County (Del Mar north to Oceanside, east to San Marcos). Oceanside has the largest amount of retail space (4,260,501) in the defined trade area. Carlsbad /La Costa has a total of 2,096,379 square feet of retail leasing space and a vacancy rate of 6.6%. RETAIL LEASING MARKET DATA 4TH QUARTER, 2009 SAN DIEGO SUB MARKET I SQFT I VAC% CARDIFF I ENCINITAS 2,200,782 4.9% CARLSBAD I LA COSTA 2,096,379 6.6% DEL MAR /SOLANA 1,627,049 2.5% OCEANSIDE 4,260,501 10.8% SAN MARCOS 2,301,693 8.4% VISTA 2,076,932 7.5% SAN DIEGO T01TAL * 58,963,934 6.4% #INCLUDES SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY SOURCE: CBRE MARI<ETPOINTE REALTY ADVISORS 4.10 Palomar Commons 16 4/1412010 Section 5: Findings and Conclusions: Palomar Commons The Lowe's site is located within the north San Diego County market area. The area straddles two freeways: State Route 78 and Interstate 5. The 78 freeway to the east and north is well served with home improvement stores. There are no large format home improvement retailers in the City of Carlsbad at this time. Conversely, the north coastal San Diego County trade area between the subject property and southward toward Del Mar and Sorrento Valley along the 1-5 spine has only one home improvement store which is a Home Depot in Encinitas. The subject property trade area as described in the paragraph above is the most affluent in San Diego County and has the highest rate of homeownership. The area, for the most part, is substantially built out, with few opportunities remaining for the addition of home improvement stores requiring acreage of the type required by Lowe's. Currently, persons living in the trade area and desirous of shopping at Lowe's have to drive substantial distances. Although Lowe's and Home Depot are both home improvement retailers, they serve different strata of the marketplace. Lowe's appeals more to the home-owner and particularly the more affluent sector of the market. Given the facts described in this report, it is highly likely that the Lowe's to be built at El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Road will be successful. Our research clearly shows that there is far more home improvement buying power in the trade area than is being accommodated. By developing the Lowe's at the Carlsbad site, it will partially arrest the leakage that results from the home improvement market being served by the surrounding communities. The other retail space in the Palomar Commons Center will prove to be equally successful as a result of the traffic generated by Lowe's. ********* Palomar Commons 17 4/14/2010 • •• We have enjoyed working on this assignment with you and stand prepared to respond to any inquiries you may have. Respectfully submitted, MARKETPOINTE REAL TV ADVISORS Alan N. Nevin Director of Economic Research Palomar Commons 18 4/1412010