HomeMy WebLinkAboutGPA 09-07; Palomar Commons; General Plan Amendment (GPA) (16)
To: City of Carlsbad
From: Valorie Thompson
Re: Palomar Commons Project
Greenhouse Gas Analysis Date: August 23, 2012
This technical memorandum presents an updated analysis of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) that
would be attributable to the Palomar Commons Project in the City of Carlsbad.
The original air quality analysis for the Palomar Airport Commons Project was prepared in 20101, and
concluded that the project’s GHG emissions would be 38% below “business as usual” levels assuming
GHG reduction measures would be implemented by the project. One of the measures that was
assumed in the analysis was to improve energy efficiency by 20% over Title 24. The assumption
included in the calculations was that this improvement would be over Title 24 as of 2005, based on Title
24 as of 2005 energy consumption figures. The assumption regarding energy efficiency was based on
estimated design standards, and was not based on the specifics of the project design.
Subsequent to project approval, the project has undergone final design, and the energy analysis
prepared for the project indicates that the project will exceed Title 24 energy efficiency standards by
13.7% rather than by 20% as originally estimated.
A review of the calculations in the Global Climate Change Analysis indicated that no credit was taken
for implementation of the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandated by Executive Order S-21-09.
Based on the San Diego County Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SDCGHGI)2, implementation of the 33%
RPS will reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation by 27% within San Diego County.
Implementing regulations have been adopted, and the state is proceeding with the RPS.
The GHG analysis that was prepared for the project indicated that various agencies within the state of
California have set forth a significance threshold for GHGs of 28.35% below “business as usual”
emission levels, based on the goal established in the AB 32 Scoping Plan to reduce emissions to 1990
levels by the year 2020. A reduction of 28.35% would be required statewide to achieve this goal.
Accordingly, many lead agencies have proposed a significance threshold based on a reduction in GHG
emissions of 28.35% below business as usual.
Emissions calculated under “business as usual” conditions, as presented in the Global Climate Change
Analysis, are provided below in Table 1.
1 Scientific Resources Associated. 2010. Global Climate Change Analysis – Palomar Airport
Commons. May 18. 2 Energy Policy Initiatives Center, University of San Diego. 2008. San Diego County Greenhouse Gas
Inventory. September.
Page 2
August 23, 2012
Page 2
Table 1
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED OPERATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO
Emission Source
Annual Emissions
(Metric tons/year)
CO2 CH4 N2O
Operational Emissions
Electricity Use Emissions 829 0.0063 0.0035
Natural Gas Use Emissions 286 0.03 0.0005
Water Usage 24 0.0002 0.0001
Vehicle Emissions 13,254 0.75 1.03
Total 14,393 0.79 1.03
Global Warming Potential Factor 1 21 310
CO2 Equivalent Emissions 14,393 17 319
TOTAL CO2 Equivalent Emissions 14,729
The GHG emissions for the project as proposed, within inclusion of GHG reduction measures identified
in the Global Climate Change Analysis, and revising the estimated improvement over Title 24 as of
2005 from 20% to 13.7%, and accounting for implementation of the 33% RPS, are presented in Table
2.
Table 2
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED OPERATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
WITH GHG REDUCTIONS
Emission Source
Annual Emissions
(Metric tons/year)
CO2 CH4 N2O
Operational Emissions
Electricity Use Emissions 514 0.0039 0.0022
Natural Gas Use Emissions 247 0.03 0.0005
Water Usage 16 0.0001 0.0001
Vehicle Emissions (including CAFE and
LCFS standard reduction of 26%) 9,244 0.52 0.72
Total 10,021 0.55 0.72
Global Warming Potential Factor 1 21 310
CO2 Equivalent Emissions 10,021 12 224
TOTAL CO2 Equivalent Emissions 10,257
“Business as Usual” CO2 Equivalent
Emissions 14,729
Percent Reduction 30.36%
Page 3
August 23, 2012
Page 3
As shown in Table 2, GHG emissions associated with the Palomar Airport Commons Project would
exceed the AB 32 goal of reducing emissions by 28.35% below “business as usual” levels. No
additional improvement over Title 24 as of 2005 is necessary to meet the goals of AB 32. The current
project design would therefore comply with the GHG emission reduction goals with an improvement
over Title 24 as of 2005 by 13.7%, and no additional mitigation measures would be necessary.
Table A-1
Summary of Operational Greenhouse Emissions - Business As Usual
Palomar Airport Commons
Emission Source CO2Ee (Metric Tons)
Project
Mobile Sourcesa 13,587
Electricityb 831
Natural gasc 287
Water Usaged 24
Total 14,729
a Mobile source values were derived using EMFAC2007 in addition to the
California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2,
March 2007.
b Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook,
SCAQMD, 1993.
c Natural Gas Usage Rates from Table A9-12-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook,
SCAQMD, 1993.
e All CO2E factors were derived using the California Climate Action Registry
General Reporting Protocol; Version 3, April 2008
dWater Usage Rates based on project information.
A-1
Table A-2
Summary of Operational Greenhouse Emissions - with GHG Reductions
Palomar Airport Commons
Emission Source CO2Ee (Metric Tons)
Project
Mobile Sourcesa 9,476
Electricityb 515
Natural gasc 248
Water Usaged 16
Total 10,255
a Mobile source values were derived using EMFAC2007 in addition to the
California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2,
March 2007.
b Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook,
SCAQMD, 1993.
c Natural Gas Usage Rates from Table A9-12-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook,
SCAQMD, 1993.
dWater Usage Rates based on project information.
e All CO2E factors were derived using the California Climate Action Registry
General Reporting Protocol; Version 3, April 2008
A-2
Table A-3
Electricity Greenhouse Gases - Business as Usual
Palomar Airport Commons
Electricity
Usage Rate a
Land Use 1,000 Sqft (kWh\sq.ft\yr)(KWh\year)MWh\year
Project 0 0.00
Office 6.0 12.95 77,700 77.70
Retail 25.3 13.55 342,409 342.41
Lowe's 122.6 13.55 1,660,688 1660.69
Restaurant 0.0 47.45 0 0.00
Food Store 53.30 0 0.00
Warehouse 4.35 0 0.00
Cinema 11.55 0 0.00
High School 10.50 0 0.00
Elementary School 5.90 0 0.00
Hospital 21.70 0 0.00
Library 10.50 0 0.00
Residential (DU)5,914 0 0.00
Total Project 2,080,797 2080.80
a Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG lbs/MWhb lbs metric tons CO2E
Project
CO2 878.71 1828416.693 829.3551844 829.3551844
CH4 0.0067 13.94133655 0.006323679 0.132797253
N2O 0.0037 7.69894705 0.003492181 1.082576045
830.57
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
A-3
Table A-4
Electricity Greenhouse Gases - with GHG Reductions
Palomar Airport Commons
Electricity
Usage Rate a
Land Use 1,000 Sqft (kWh\sq.ft\yr)(KWh\year)MWh\year
Project 0 0.00
Office 6.0 11.18 67,055 67.06
Retail 25.3 11.69 295,499 295.50
Lowe's 122.6 11.46 1,404,510 1404.51
Restaurant 0.0 40.95 0 0.00
Food Store 53.30 0 0.00
Warehouse 4.35 0 0.00
Cinema 11.55 0 0.00
High School 10.50 0 0.00
Elementary School 5.90 0 0.00
Hospital 21.70 0 0.00
Library 10.50 0 0.00
Residential (DU)5,914 0 0.00
Total Project 1,767,064 1767.06
a Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG lbs/MWhb lbs metric tons CO2E
Project
CO2 641.4583 1133497.808 514.1455378 514.1455378
CH4 0.004891 8.642709557 0.003920264 0.082325542
N2O 0.002701 4.772839606 0.002164922 0.671125777
514.90
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
A-4
Table A-5
Natural Gas Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Business as Usual
Palomar Airport Commons
Usage Ratec Total Natural
Gas Usage
Total Natural Gas
Usage
Total Natural Gas
Usage
Land Use 1,000 Sqft (cu.ft\sq.ft\mo)(cu.ft\mo)(cu.ft\year)(MMBTU\year)
Project
Office 6.0 2.0 12,000 144,000 147
Retail 25.3 2.9 73,283 879,396 897
Lowe's 122.6 2.9 355,424 4,265,088 4,350
Restaurant 0.0 4.8 - - -
Food Store 0.0 2.9 - - -
Warehouse 0.0 2.0 - - -
Cinema 0.0 4.8 - - -
High School 0.0 2.9 - - -
Elementary School 0.0 2.0 - - -
Hospital 0.0 4.8 - - -
Library 0.0 2.9 - - -
Residential (DU)0.0 4,012 - - -
Total Project 440,707 5,288,484 5,394
a Natural Gas Usage Rates from Table A9-12-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG Kg/MMBtub Kg metric tons CO2E (Metric Tons)
Project
CO2 53.06 286,219.10 286.22 286.22
CH4 0.0059 31.83 0.03 0.67
N2O 0.0001 0.54 0.0005 0.17
287.05
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
Natural Gas
A-5
Table A-6
Natural Gas Greenhouse Gas Emissions - with GHG Reductions
Palomar Airport Commons
Usage Ratec Total Natural
Gas Usage
Total Natural Gas
Usage
Total Natural Gas
Usage
Land Use 1,000 Sqft (cu.ft\sq.ft\mo)(cu.ft\mo)(cu.ft\year)(MMBTU\year)
Project
Office 6.0 1.7 10,356 124,272 127
Retail 25.3 2.5 63,243 758,919 774
Lowe's 122.6 2.5 306,731 3,680,771 3,754
Restaurant 0.0 4.1 - - -
Food Store 0.0 2.9 - - -
Warehouse 0.0 2.0 - - -
Cinema 0.0 4.8 - - -
High School 0.0 2.9 - - -
Elementary School 0.0 2.0 - - -
Hospital 0.0 4.8 - - -
Library 0.0 2.9 - - -
Residential (DU)0.0 4,012 - - -
Total Project 380,330 4,563,962 4,655
a Natural Gas Usage Rates from Table A9-12-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG Kg/MMBtub Kg metric tons CO2E (Metric Tons)
Project
CO2 53.06 247,007.08 247.01 247.01
CH4 0.0059 27.47 0.03 0.58
N2O 0.0001 0.47 0.0005 0.14
247.73
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
Natural Gas
A-6
Table A-7
Water Use Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Business as Usual
Palomar Airport Commons
Water Usage
Usage Rate
Land Use GPY (kWh\MMgal)(KWh\year)MWh\year
Project 5649945 10800 61,019 61.02
Total Project 61,019 61.02
a Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG lbs/MWhb lbs metric tons CO2E
Project
CO2 878.71 53618.36225 24.32086017 24.32086017
CH4 0.0067 0.40883002 0.000185442 0.003894283
N2O 0.0037 0.225771802 0.000102408 0.031746568
24.36
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
A-7
Table A-8
Water Use Greenhouse Gas Emissions - with GHG Reductions
Palomar Airport Commons
Water Usage
Usage Rate
Land Use GPY (kWh\MMgal)(KWh\year)MWh\year
Project 5084950.5 10800 54,917 54.92
Total Project 54,917 54.92
a Electricity Usage Rates from Table A9-11-A, CEQA Air Quality Handbook, SCAQMD, 1993.
GHG lbs/MWhb lbs metric tons CO2E
Project
CO2 641.4583 35227.264 15.97880513 15.97880513
CH4 0.004891 0.268601323 0.000121835 0.002558544
N2O 0.002701 0.148332074 6.72822E-05 0.020857495
16.00
b Emission factors for CO2, CH4, and N2O were derived from the California Climate Action Registry General Reporting Protocol; Version 2.2, March 2007
A-8
Table A-9
On-Road Mobile Source Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Business as Usual
Palomar Airport Commons
On Road Mobile Source
Land Use Daily VMT Annual VMTa
Total Project 66,944 24,434,414.00
a Multiplied Daily VMT by 365 to get Annual VMTb Factors dervied from URBEMIS2002
542.4161429
0.0305
N2O Gram/Mile 0.042
GHG Gram/Mile Gram metric tons CO2E (Metric Tons)
Project
CO2 542.41614 13,253,620,594.85 13,253.62 13,253.62
CH4 0.0305 745,249.63 0.75 15.65
N2O 0.042 1,026,245.39 1.03 318.14
13587.41
c Averaged EMFAC2007 fleet values for 0-65mph
San Diego County CO2 2012 AVG Gram/Milec
San Diego County CH4 2012 AVG Gram/Milec
d Emission Factor for N2O based on EPA Tier 0 emission factors
A-9
Table A-10
On-Road Mobile Source Greenhouse Gas Emissions - with GHG Reductions
Palomar Airport Commons
On Road Mobile Source
Land Use Daily VMT Annual VMTa
Total Project 46,689 17,041,656.40
a Multiplied Daily VMT by 365 to get Annual VMTb Factors dervied from URBEMIS2002
542.4161429
0.0305
N2O Gram/Mile 0.042
GHG Gram/Mile Gram metric tons CO2E (Metric Tons)
Project
CO2 542.41614 9,243,669,534.87 9,243.67 9,243.67
CH4 0.0305 519,770.52 0.52 10.92
N2O 0.042 715,749.57 0.72 221.88
9476.47
San Diego County CO2 2012 AVG Gram/Mile w GHG Reduction Measures
San Diego County CH4 2012 AVG Gram/Mile w GHG Reduction Measures
c Averaged EMFAC2007 fleet values for 0-65mph
d Emission Factor for N2O based on EPA Tier 0 emission factors
A-10