HomeMy WebLinkAbout; ; Carlsbad General Plan; 1965-01-01ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
FOR
CITY OF CARLSBAD
GENERAL PLAN
1965
Byron Barnes, Director of Planning
Paul Neal, Project Planner
Lawrence Williams, Staff Economist
James Kuebelbeck, Project Economist
DANIEL, MANN, JOHNSON, & MENDENHALL
Planning - Architecture - Engineering - Systems
$
THE PREPARATION OF THIS BROCHURE WAS FINANCED IN PART THROUGH AN
URBAN PLANNING GRANT FROM THE HOUSING AND HOME FINANCE AGENCY.
UNDER THE PROVISIONS OF SECTION 7O1 OF THE HOUSING ACT OF 1954, AS
AMENDED.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 1
METHODOLOGY 1
PART I
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 5
PART II
POPULATION 7
HISTORIC POPULATION 8
COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES 8
LIMITATIONS OF THE POPULATION ANALYSIS 8
PART III
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION 18
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POPULATION
CHARACTERISTICS 26
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE 28
LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS 30
PART IV
CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE POPULATION 34
POPULATION INCREASE - COMPOSITION 35
PERSONAL INCOME 37
RETAIL SALES & RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL 38
PART V
LAND USE PROJECTIONS 43
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT 48
TRANSITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 51
HARBOR EFFECT 52
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL REQUIREMENTS 52
COMMERCIAL LAND USE 52
SERVICES 53
OFFICE COMMERCIAL 55
WHOLESALE COMMERCIAL 56
INDUSTRY 58
SUMMARY OF LAND REQUIREMENTS 61
INVESTMENT 62
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INDEX OF TABLES
Table No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Population Growth
Populations of Selected Cities
Population Forecast - Selected Areas
Family Income
Housing and Rental Characteristics
Unit Occupancy and Rent
Labor Force Projections
Percentage Distribution and Location Quotients
Actual Sales vs. Resident Sales Potential
Potential Retail Sales Generated by Popunation
Increase
Building Permits - Number and Value, 1959-63
Average Value of Building Permits
Number and Value of Building Permits, 1962-63
Comparative Capital Valuation Per Capita
Single and Multi- Family Units, Additional
Requirements
Retail Commercial Land Use Requirements
Office Space Requirements
Wholesale Trade Requirements
Comparative Tax Rates for Industrial Land
Page
10
11
17
22
23a
25
30
32
39
42
44
46
47
49
50
54
56
57
60
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INDEX OF FIGURES
Figure No. Page
1 Regional Map 3
2 General Plan - Study Areas 4
3 Population - Historic and Projected 12
4 Age - Sex - Cone 20
5 Age Distribution 21
6 Family Incomes 24
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INTRODUCTION
This economic study has been prepared as a working document indi-
cating probable future economic development of the City of Carlsbad.
It is intended that such a report be used as a guide for planned future
land use. The economic study as presented herein is intended to
provide the basic data upon which DMJM will develop the City's
general plan.
The economic study as presented is divided into three elements or
sections. Section One contains Part I and presents a summary of
findings and conclusions. Section Two includes Parts II and III and
contains the economic analysis and a brief explanation of the approach
used. Section Three includes Parts IV and V and contains projections
of land use to 1985 and indicates the specific growth potential of the
City of Carlsbad as it relates to the north coastal area of San Diego
County.
METHODOLOGY
The determination of the probable future growth pattern of the City of
Carlsbad and the planning area is contingent upon three factors of
growth:
o Population
o Industry
o Land Uses
These three components interacting together result in either growth
or decline and the character of the interaction determines the charac-
teristics of the growth or decline that occur in an area.
The City of Carlsbad is a part of an intricate complex. It is necessary
to reduce such a complex to analytical segments. These segments,
when analyzed, provide the basic information upon which a hypothesis
can be postulated and investigated.
Standard techniques of urban economic analysis provide some tools;
economic base analysis and land economics provide others. These
techniques, when used to study the City of Carlsbad vis-a-vis the
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region, county, state and national results in an array of probabilities
within which the potential increase of 1) population, 2) industry, and
3) land uses will occur.
This report presents an analysis and findings of potential growth for
the City of Carlsbad based upon these probabilities.
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Costa Mesa>
Laguna Beach
/San Juan Capistrano
San Clemente
Camp Pendleto
CARLSBAD
Leucadi;
Encinitae \
Cardiff-by-the-Sea
Solana Beach \
Del Mar
f t T T *
Pacific Beachl
Mission Beach '
Ocean Beach I
CARLSBAD REGIONAL MAP
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BUENA
VISTA
LAGOON
FIGURE 2
CITY OF CARLSBAD
GENERAL PLAN-STUDY AREAS
AGUA HEOIONDA
LAGOON
TERRAMAR
BATIQUITOS LAGOON
In the Economic Analysis, Areas 4-13 are treated in the context of Area 3 (East City).
PART I
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
The economic analysis presented herein has included a comprehensive
study of the planning area, the north coastal region of San Diego
County and the San Diego metropolitan area (Figure 1). Historical
and current economic activity was evaluated and the potential for
growth studied in detail. A 20-year period of analysis was used and
projections are shown for the year 1985.
The economic analysis indicates the following findings relative to the
year 1985:
o Population of the planning area will almost triple,
increasing to approximately 31,000.
o Labor force in the planning area will increase to
approximately 10,000. About 25% of the labor
force will work outside the planning area in other
parts of the metropolitan area.
o The Carlsbad economy will be based predominantly
upon commerce and services.
o Manufacturing industry will play a lesser role in
future growth than commerce and services.
o Some increase in resort-based industry will occur,
especially in the vicinity of the Agua Hedionda
Lagoon.
o Future immigrants into the planning area will be
of higher skills, higher incomes and provide sub-
stantial increases to total spendable income.
o Personal income of the planning area should
increase from $24 million in 1964 to $80 million
in 1985.
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o Retail sales of the planning area should increase
from $8 million in 1964 to approximately $35
million in 1985.
o There will be an increase of almost 4,400 new
homes and 2,000 apartment units in the planning
area by 1985.
o There will be a requirement for an additional 60
acres of land for retail commercial facilities.
o There will be a requirement for about six acres
of additional office space.
o There will be a requirement for about 30 acres of
additional land for service activities.
o There will be a requirement for about five acres
of additional land for wholesale activities.
o There will be a requirement for about 35-45 acres
of additional land for manufacturing industry.
o Investment in the community should increase as
follows:
Additional residential: $100,000,000
Additional commercial and industrial: $20,000,000
Additional public: $16,000,000
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PART II
POPULATION
There are many methods of determining potential population growth.
The most commonly used technique is demographic in nature. This
method simply assumes that long run growth is fairly stable pheno-
mena, therefore, a regression equation derived for historical popu-
lation growth is considered indicative of future growth.
A second method is proportionate in nature. This method simply
assumes that the percentage relationship between the populations of
the study area and the region is relatively stable over time, therefore,
increases in population of the study area over time can be estimated
by projecting the regional population and prorating the regional in-
creases to the study area.
The third method is based upon composite change. By determination
of birth rate, family formation rates, death rates and net immigration
and emigration, predictions of future population growth can be made.
There are many offshoots of these three basic methods utilizing one,
primarily, with the others, for reference.
The method used herein incorporates primarily the first two methods
mentioned. In addition, future development of the Carlsbad study
area is analyzed with reference to its commercial capability and resi-
dential advantages. In essence, subjective judgment is used to deter-
mine the competitive advantages and disadvantages for growth within
the study area based upon analysis of primary and secondary indicators
of growth such as labor force, tax rates, land values and the amenities
for residential living.
The projected population as determined by demography and propor-
tionality is adjusted by the peculiar advantages for growth or disadvan-
tages to growth predominant in the Carlsbad study area. The popula-
tion projections for the study area as indicated in this section, therefore,
are composed of both demographic and economic factors.
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HISTORIC POPULATION
This .section indicates in both tabular and graphic form the population
growth in 1) United States, 2) California, 3) Southern California,
4) San Diego County, 5) cities in the north coastal portion of San
Diego County, and 6) Carlsbad.
The population growth of these selected areas is shown later in Table
I and Figure 3. In addition, the rate of growth that occurred in the
City of Carlsbad relative to growth rates of other areas is also indicated.
The tabular breakdown of population increase in the various geographic
areas indicates three salient facts.
COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES
The population growth of California and Southern California exceeded
comparable growth in the nation. Whereas the United States exper-
ienced a population increase of 18.4 per cent between 1950 and I960,
population growth within California during the same period (48.5 per
cent) was more than 2-1/2 times that of the nation. Population
growth in the Southern California coastal counties of Los Angeles,
Orange and San Diego was 57.9 per cent for the same period.
LIMITATIONS OF POPULATION ANALYSIS
The second fact apparent in the statistics presented in Table I is
derived from the inherent inconsistency in using percentage increases
as sole indicators of growth. Populations in the base year for these
regional areas are not comparable; therefore, a comparison of growth
rates in percentage terms in meaningless for policy inference. The
inconsistency of making any comparisons of community growth solely
on the basis of population growth stems from possible differences in
the social and economic characteristics of the new populace relative
to the indigeneous population.
As an example, the private and public investment necessary to sus-
tain an additional population of labor force age, i. e. , skilled and
mobile, will be different than the private and public investment nec-
essary to sustain an additional population of non-labor force age or
composed predominantly of those social and economic groups that are
unskilled or defined as structurally unemployed. Any plan must con-
sider these requirements since the plan as such is an investment
schemata of land, labor, capital and management resources.
The third factor relates directly to Carlsbad as compared to other
cities in the south coastal county complex. Although Carlsbad exper-
ienced a substantial increase in population in the 1950-1960 decade,
when ranked according to absolute rate of growth it ranks seventh in
the north coastal county area. Its growth rate was below the median
rate for the cities of San Diego County and all of these cities except
Vista and Fallbrook had higher base populations in 1950. Therefore,
other cities in San Diego required substantially greater absolute in-
creases in numbers of persons than did the City of Carlsbad to gain
one percentage point in growth.
Public and private investment requirements in Carlsbad increased
between 1950 and I960 by an amount equal to that generated by the
additional population of 4,870, whereas comparable investments in
Oceanside accrued to an additional population of 12,090.*
Population estimates of July I960 and 1964 for selected cities in the
north coastal area are presented in Table 2. It is apparent that of the
cities in the north coastal area, Carlsbad sustained the lowest growth
rate.
Population projections are presented in this section for the United
States, California, San Diego County and the cities of San Diego,
Oceanside, Escondido, San Marcos and Carlsbad (including that por-
tion of the planning area outside the current city limits). Whereas
the geographic limits of the United States, California and San Diego
County are relatively fixed, expansion of incorporated area by cities
is extremely flexible.
The population projections (Table 3) for these selected cities are pre-
pared considering not only current incorporated area but annexation
rates and potential of the respective cities. Therefore, the projections
are not limited by geography and should be utilized as forecasts of
future urban populations in the selected city and environs.
* Public and private investment plus capital formation will be con-
sidered in the report later.
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TABLE 1
POPULATION GROWTH: 1950-1960
United States, California, Southern California
Selected Cities of San Diego County, Carlsbad City
Population Number
Area
United States
California
Southern California
Coastal Counties:
Los Angeles
Orange
San Diego
TOTAL
North Coastal Area
San Diego County
City
San Diego
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
El Cajon
Escondido
Fallbrook
La Mesa
National City
Oceanside
San Marcos
Vista
Source: U. S. Bureau
1950
150, 697.4*
10, 586. 2*
4, 151.7*
216. 2*
556. 8*
4, 924.7
64, 500
334, 387
4, 383
16, 505
5, 600
6, 544
1, 735
10, 946
21, 119
12, 881
N/A#
1, 705
of the Census,
I960
178,464
15,717
6, 038
703
1, 033
7, 774
150, 592
573, 224
9,253
42, 034
37, 618
16,377
4,814
30, 441
32, 771
24, 971
3, 378
14, 992
California
Population
Increase
1950- I960
. 2* 27, 766. 8*
. 2* 5, 131. 0*
.8* 1,887.1*
. 9* 487. 7*
. 0* 476. 2*
.9 2,851.0
86,092
238,837
4, 870
25, 529
32, 018
9,933
3,079
19,495
11, 652
12, 090
N/A#
13, 287
Percentage
Increase
1950 - 1960
18.4
48. 5
45. 5
225. 6
85. 6
57. 9
133. 5
(9)+ 71.4
(7)+ 111.1
(5)+ 154.7
(2)+ 571.8
(6)+ 151.9
(4)+ 177.5
(3)+ 185.7
(10)+ 55.2
(8)+ 93.9
N/A#
(1)+ 779.3
Department of Finance, San Diego
County Planning Commission.
* 1000's of persons
+ Number indicates rank by rate of increase
# Not Available
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TABLE 2
CITY OF CARLSBAD
POPULATIONS OF SELECTED CITIES
I960 and 1964
CITY
San Diego
Carlsbad
Escondido
Oceanside
San Marcos
Vista
POPULATION
I960
573, 224
9,253
16, 377
24, 971
3, 378*
14, 992
Percent
Increase
I960 - 1964
11.5
27.7
48. 2
32. 1
N/A
45.4
1964+
638, 900
11,817
24, 264
32, 975
2,954
21,801
Source: U. S. Bureau of Census, DMJM Economics, San Diego
County Planning Commission.
+ Estimate by San Diego County Planning Commission
* 3, 378 includes population outside the City of San Marcos
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w
uen
O
H
H
O
I
II
II
I
I
II
I
II
POPULATION
! HISTORIC AND PROJECTED
! SELECTED REGIONAL AND LOCAL AREAS
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 1980 1990 ZOOO Z010
The purpose of this figure is to show visually the relative relationship
of growth as indicated by the figures in Exhibits 7 and 8.
Source! U. S. Bureau of Census, California Department of Finance,
San Diego County Planning Commission
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Two projections are shown in Figure 3 for United States, California,
San Diego County, and San Diego city. These are classified as median
and high.
For the major geographic regions, the difference in projected popula-
tion is related to fertility levels and immigration. In the minor geo-
graphic areas, however, the factors affecting the levels of increase
are predominantly economic as they affect immigration. The levels of
future industrial growth as a determinant of population expansion were
considered as integral to forecasts of populations of San Diego County
and San Diego city as well as the north coastal area.
Projections of future populations of Escondido, Oceanside and San
Marcos are presented for reference only. Therefore, a single projec-
tion is made for these cities based upon a median level of growth
county-wide.
For the planning area, however, three levels of growth are projected:
o Level I is based upon possibility of occurrence
rather than reasonable probability. See Figure 3.
(40, 000 population)
o Level II is projected as the forecast most probable.
(30, 000 population)
o Level III is projected on the basis of a definite county-
wide decline in relative growth. (20, 000 population)
The construct underlying the three forecasts is summarized by the
following:
A planning area population of approximately 40, 000 in 1985
will occur if substantial changes occur in
o transportation technology,
o industrial technology,
o government fiscal policy,
o international trade relationships.
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A planning area population of approximately 30, 000 in 1985 will
occur if
o transportation technology increases in line with the trends
as established in the postwar decades,
o government spending increases at a relatively stable rate,
o no radical decline occurs in industrial activity.
A planning area population of approximately 20, 000 in 1985 will
occur if
o transportation technology or construction decreases or
increases at a decreasing rate,
o government spending increases but at a decreasing rate,
o industrial growth increases at a decreasing rate.
Informed judgment indicates that a reasonable forecast of growth for
the planning area, based upon forecasts of public and private invest-
ment for plants and equipment, goods and services in San Diego
County is between 25,000 and 30,000 population. Excluding the effects
on population growth generated by the small craft harbor, the popu-
lation of the planning area is estimated to be about 27,500 by 1985.
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Inclusion of La Costa Development in
Planning Area Population Projections
Paradise Homes of Las Vegas is in the process of developing a 2500-
acre community in the southern portion of the planning area. Projected
population range of this development is 16,000 to 26,500, with between
5,400 and 8,920 dwelling units of which 2/3 will be single family and 1/3
multiple units. The stated intent of this development is construction
and sale of units to the retirement market, although secondary empha-
sis will be placed upon the general housing market.
Planned community development has become, and will continue in the
future as, the "neo-tract" concept successfully used by developers in
the post-WWII period. Competition among new towns is increasing at
a rapid rate resulting in a leveling off or equalizing of the somewhat
specialized demand for housing under the planned community concept.
Therefore, La Costa may be considered as one of the many similar
developments which are occurring and will continue to occur south of
the Tehachapi Mountains in greater Southern California. Nonetheless,
the La Costa development does have an advantage in the Carlsbad
planning area because it is first. This advantage results in a reduc-
tion in the potential for development elsewhere in the area, yet reflects,
if successful, upon the potential population growth within the planning
area. No target date is formally stated for ultimate development of La
Costa since its developers obviously realize that the same transitory
development of land use will occur at La Costa as anticipated for the
Carlsbad planning area. Given land values and potential development
profits, it is reasonable to assume that the La Costa developers can
afford to "land bank" higher value uses and promote the marginal mar-
ket if anticipated development of the project is deferred because of
prevailing market or economic conditions.
The impact of La Costa upon the Carlsbad planning area is evident.
If successful, and a modest growth rate occurs, population density in
the planning area will shift from a generalized distribution throughout,
to a polar distribution with the Oceanside-Carlsbad centroid on the
north and the La Costa centroid on the south. A bi-modal or polar
area form is generally not conducive to either effective economic
growth or to economic central government due to the diverse interests
inherent in the citizenry of a polarized community.
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Nonetheless, the creation of development in the Aqua Hedionda area
can effectively tie such a polarized community together. The resultant
spread of land uses and resulting spread in distribution of population
does not change the magnitude or character of population growth. The
major effect of La Costa in terms of magnitude of population growth
will occur only in the specialized area of the retirement market which
has already been considered as integral to the planning area population
projections.
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TABLE 3
CITY OF CARLSBAD
POPULATION FORECAST
SELECTED AREAS, 1950 - 2000
1950 I960 1963 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
San Diego County
Percent
556,800 1,033,000 1,147,500 1,200,500 1,366,400 1,575,000 1,775,000 1,960,000 2,120,000 2,280,000 2,432,000
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
San Diego City
Percent
Oceanside
Percent
Escondido
Percent
San Marcos
Percent
Carlsbad (present city)
Percent
North Coastal Area
Percent
334, 400
60.0
12,881
2. 3
6, 544
1. 2
4, 383
0.8
64, 500
11.6
573, 200
55.4
24, 971
2.4
16,377
1.6
3, 378
0.3
9, 253
0.9
150, 600
14.6
624, 000
54. 3
29, 949
2.6
22, 976
2.0
4, 131
0.4
11, 288
1.0
172, 500
15.0
653, 900
54.2
31,369
2.6
25, 336
2. 1
4,826
0.4
12,065
1.0
194,400
16.2
710, 500
52.0
39,625
2.9
36,892
2.7
8, 198
0.6
15, 030
1. 1
252,800
18.5
787, 500
50.0
48,825
3. 1
47, 250
3.0
12, 600
0.8
18, 900
1. 2
338,600
21.5
834, 300
47. 0
58, 575
3.3
60, 350
3.4
17, 750
1.0
23,075
1. 3
443, 800
25.0
862, 400
44. 0
68, 600
3.5
70, 560
3.6
25, 480
1.3
27,440
1.4
556,600
28.4
890,400
42. 0
74, 200
3. 5
76, 320
3.6
27, 560
1. 3
33, 920
1.6
660, 000
31. 1
912, 000
40.0
49,800
3.5
82, 080
3.6
31, 920
1.4
41, 040
1.8
800,000
35.2
948, 500
39.0
85, 120
3.5
87, 552
3.6
36,480
1. 5
48, 650
2.0
1,000, 000
41. 1
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census;
California State Department of Water Resources
California State Department of Finance
Security First National Bank
Copley Newspaper Research Department
Bank of America NTSA
North Coastal San Diego County Sewerage Survey (SD County Board of Supervisors)
PART III
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION
Social and economic characteristics of the current population, although
not necessarily indicative of characteristics of the future population,
tend to limit the normal growth mechanism. Through this limiting
effect, such characteristics are a significant factor in determining
the direction of growth of an area. This portion of the report is a
comprehensive analysis of the social and economic characteristics of
the people residing in Carlsbad City. Special consideration is given
to age and income, as they affect the potentiality for future growth.
Because of the unique nature of Carlsbad City as an economic entity,
the planning area is subdivided into three segments; roughly corres-
ponding to the land use study areas formulated for the plan.
o Study Area 1: AT &; SF Railroad right-of-way west
to the ocean; northern city limits to Agua Hedionda
Lagoon (defined as "Beach Area" in economic analysis).
o Study Area 2: AT & SF Railroad right-of-way east
to 101 Freeway, northern city limits south to Agua
Hedionda Lagoon (defined as "Central Area" in the
economic analysis).
o Study Area 3, etc. : 101 Freeway east to El Camino
Real; northern city limits south to Batiguitos Lagoon
(defined as "East City Area" in economic analysis).
From an economic viewpoint, the Carlsbad community is a heterogen-
eous complex composed of three homogeneous segments. This means
that the three parts of the planning area are almost completely differ-
ent in terms of age, education, income, family size, land values,
type of housing, etc. Three different economic entities exist and the
three areas have different requirements for goods and services.*
* Figure 4 shows the age distribution of male and female residents
of the total city area. The analysis following indicates the salient
differences of the three segments of the planning area as they apply
to the city as a general entity.
-18-
In this section of the report, a brief analysis of the three areas as
delineated is presented and the diverse character of the three seg-
ments is explained in the context of future potential.
Age, income, family size, housing units, rent and vacancy factors
are analyzed for each of the sub-areas. Following this analysis of
each area, a summary of statistics and comparison of the areas is
presented, outlining the important differences.
Beach Area
Age: Figure 5 indicates the age distribution of the population in the
Beach Area. The distribution of age groups is relatively tight with no
substantial variances. Two pertinent points apparent on the graph
are of primary importance. The first is the small relative difference
(6.2%) between the highest percentage of persons, the under five age
group (10.3%) and the lowest percentage in the 65 to 69 age group
(4.1%). The second is the extremely high relative percentage of per-
sons (8. 3%) in the 75 and over age group. 32 years of age is the
median for the population in this area.
Income: Family income in the Beach Area is shown in Table 4. Of
the 479 families living in the area, one-half had incomes of less than
$5, 000. Over 40% had incomes between $3, 000 and $5, 000 and the
modal income was about $3, 500 per family. Per capita total annual
income was $1, 820.
Housing Unit Analysis: Out of a total of 707 dwelling units in the Beach
Area, 292 (41.3%) were owner occupied, whereas 309 (43.7%) were
rented units. Of the 69 available vacant units (9.7%), 67 (9.5%) were
vacant rentals. Over one-half the housing units in the Beach Area
were built prior to 1950 and over one-half of these were built prior
to 1939.
Three hundred seventy three (52. 8%) of the dwelling units were single
family homes, whereas 331 (46.8%) were multi-family units. Median
rent on lease and by month was $90 per month and median rent on a
monthly basis only was $82. The majority of rents ranged between
$60 and $150, with most of the rentals in the $60-99 range.
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FIGURE 5
00
Beach Area
75 & Over
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
Under 5
.05 15
>.
A
Central Area
00 05 .10 l5
75 & Over
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
Under5
\
East City Area
00 05 .10 15
75 & Over
70 - 74
64 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 2920-2415 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
UnderS
AGE DISTRIBUTION
CITY OF CARLSBAD
Beach Area, Central Area, East City
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TABLE 4
CITY OF CARLSBAD
FAMILY INCOME
Income
T otal
Under $1000
! 1000- 1999
2000- 2999
3000- 3999
.'
4000- 4999
5000- 5999
6000- 6999
7000- 7999
8000- 8999
9000- 9999
10000-14999
'•. 15000-24999
25000-Over
; Median
i Per Capita
East
No.
1062
12
46
82
85
98
111
87
102
98
69
183
61
28
City Area
%
100.0 ;
1. 1
4. 3
7. 7
8.0
9.2
10.5
8.2
9. 6
9.2
6.5
17. 2
5.7
2.6
$7098
$2218
Central A
No.
923
37
48
76
139
92
150
125
63
82
44
59
8
-
$5463
$1560
rea
%
100.0
4.0
5. 2
8.2
15.1
10. 0
16. 3
13.5
6.8
8. 9
4.8
6.4
0.9
-
Beach Ar
No.
479
24
43
42
72
64
61
53
38
15
16
35
12
4
$4914
$1820
ea
%
100.0
5.0
9.0
8.8
15. o!
1
13.4
12.7
11. 1
7.9
3.1
3.3
7. 3
2.5
0.8
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census I960, California State Department of Finance.
-22-
Family Size: Basing the family size on unit occupancy indicates a
median number of persons per unit of 2.3. The relatively large num-
ber of non-family units, and the high percentage of senior citizens in
the area, is reflected in the per unit figure of 2.3 persons. Normally,
exclusion of non-family households tends to increase the median popu-
lation per household. Due to the peculiar age grouping, however,
population per household is a very low 2.7 persons, only slightly
higher than the 2.3 persons per unit, including non-family households.
Central Area
Age: Percentage frequencies for age groups in the Central Area are
shown in Figure 5. Two specific points are derivable from the nature
of the distribution. The first is the relatively high proportion in the
under five year group and the 25 to 40 year group. The percentage in
the 75 and over age category is relatively low in the Central Area vis-
a-vis the Beach Area.
The median age for the population in this area is 23. 7 years.
Income: Family income in the area was $5, 463. However, due to the
large size of family, per capita total annual income was only $1, 560.
Modal family income in this area was $5,000 to $6,000 with the majority
of the incomes between $3,000 and $7,000. Only 27.8 per cent of the
families in this area had incomes greater than $7,000, with less than
ten per cent over $10, 000.
Housing Unit Analysis: There were 1171 housing units in the Central
Area, of which 573 were owner occupied and 510 (43.6%) were rentals.
This area had a relatively low vacancy rate of 4.7 per cent on rental
properties. Five hundred sixty (48.1%) of the units were built since
1950 and 353 (30.1%) were constructed prior to 1939. One thousand,
twenty six (87.6%) of the total units "were single family homes with
only 1.6 per cent of the units in the apartment category. (This situa-
tion has since been changed and a substantial number of apartment
units have been constructed since I960. These units are of the same
general value characteristics. )
Median rent in the Central Area was $78, and the modal rent paid
ranged between $60 and $79. Most of the units, however, rented for
between $60 and $99, with only a few rentals over $100 per month.
-23-
TABLE 5
CITY OF CARLSBAD
HOUSING AND RENTAL CHARACTERISTICS
New City
All Housing Units
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
Available Vacant
For Sale
For Rent
Other Vacant
Built between 1950 and I960
1940-1949
1939 or earlier
Deteriorating
Dilapidated
Units in Structure: 1
2
3 or more
East
No.
1294
958
205
77
53
24
54
815
224
254
88
24
1269
5
19
City Area
%
74. 0
15.8
6.0
4. 1
1.9
4. 2
63. 0
17. 3
19.6
6.8
1.9
98. 1
0.4
1. 5
Central
No.
1171
573
510
67
12
55
21
563
255
353
105
9
1026
126
19
Area
%
48.9
43. 6
5.7
1.0
4.7
1.8
48. 1
21.8
30. 1
9.0
0.8
87.6
10.8
1.6
Beach
No.
707
292
309
69
2
67
37
348
161
196
100
13
373
196
135
Area
%
41. 3
43.7
9. 7
0. 3
9.5
5. 2
49. 2
22. 8
27.7
14.1
1. 8
52. 8
27. 7
19. 1
All Occupied Units 1163
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census,
I960 Census of Population
89.9
-23a-
1083 92.5 601 85. 0
TABLE 5
CITY OF CARLSBAD
HOUSING AND RENTAL CHARACTERISTICS
New City
All Housing Units
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
Available Vacant
For Sale
For Rent
Other Vacant
Built between 1950 and I960
1940-1949
1939 or earlier
Deteriorating
Dilapidated
Units in Structure: 1
2
3 or more
East Ci
No.
1294
958
205
77
53
24
54
815
224
254
88
24
1269
5
19
Lty Are
V
74.
15.
6.
4.
1.
4.
63.
17.
19.
6.
1.
98.
0.
1.
;a
r
0
8
0
1
9
2
0
3
6
8
9
1
4
5
Centra
No.
1171
573
510
67
12
55
21
563
255
353
105
9
1026
126
19
il Area
%
48.9
43. 6
5.7
1.0
4.7
1.8
48. 1
21.8
30. 1
9.0
0.8
87.6
10.8
1.6
Beac
No.
707
292
309
69
2
67
37
348
161
196
100
13
373
196
135
h Area
%
41.
43.
9.
0.
9.
5.
49.
22.
27.
14.
1.
52.
27.
19.
1
3
7
7
3
5
2
2
8
7
1
8
8
7
1
All Occupied Units 1163 89.9
Source: U. S. Bureau of Census,
I960 Census of Population -24-
1083 92.5 601 85. 0
FIGURE 6 •-t-$25, 000 -f
O
H
oo
O
W
in
'M
M3Hn
^ U5O -1U pci
£ <~ U
n os i*
< H
U
^_j
CO
ro
W
nj
0)
COJ
U
0)
M
x:u
cti
OJ
CQ
PERCENT
-Z4-
Item
TABLE 6
CITY OF CARLSBAD
UNIT OCCUPANCY AND RENT
East City
Area
Central
Area
Beach
Area
Median Persons
Per Unit o
Per Household'1
Median Rent**
Monthly Basis
Modal Rent
Close Array
2. 9
3. 3
$100 +
$100 +
$100 to $149
$100 to $149
3. 2
3. 5
$78
$70
$60 to $79
$80 to $99
2.3
2.7
$90
$82
$100 to $149
$80 to $99
$60 to $79
* Households are classified as persons living in a dwelling whose
incomes are pooled.
** Lease plus monthly basis
Source: U. S. Bureau of Census. I960 Census of Population
-25-
Family Size: There was a relatively large number of families living
in the area and the median number of persons per unit was 3.2. Popu-
lation per household due to large families of younger age categories
was slightly higher at 3.5.
East City Area
Age: The age distribution of the population living in the East City Area
is shown in Figure 5. Three specific points about the distribution are
relevant to this analysis: first, the relatively large percentage of
children in the five to nine and ten to 14 age brackets; second, the
relatively large percentage of persons in the 30 to 44 age bracket; and
third, the even distribution of those age groups in the 60 and over
category and the relatively low percentage of the population in the
over 75 category. The median age for the population of this area was
about 32. 2 years.
Income: Family income in the East City Area is shown in Table 4.
The distribution of incomes indicates that the highest percentage of
families (17.2%) had incomes between $10, 000 and $15, 000. Median
family income for the East City Area, however, was $7,098. Median
annual per capita total income was $2, 218.
Housing Unit Analysis: There were 1294 dwelling units in the East
City Area in I960. Of these, 958 (74. 0%) were owner occupied and
204 (15.8%) were rentals. Significantly, 63.1 per cent were built
since 1950 and 98. 1 per cent are single-family homes. Of the dwelling
units rented, the median rent was between $100 and $105, and the
majority of the rentals were between $100 and $149.
The vacancy rate for rentals was an extremely low 1.9 per cent and
there were 54 vacant unsold homes.
Family Size: In the East City Area each household averaged a rela-
tively low 3.3 persons.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
In the previous section, four characteristics (age, income, housing,
and family size) were described for the three study areas. These four
characteristics are correlated and compared in this section and mean-
ingful relationships derived for each area.
-26-
The Beach Area is characterized by a relatively large number of
older residents and also families with the parents in the 20 to 24 year
age groups. The families in this area have a relatively low median
income level (16% below the median family income for the planning
area). Family size in this area is lowest in the planning area, indi-
cating the non-family effects of the elderly retired citizens.
Structures in this area are relatively old, and the rental distributions
with the median rent at $82 per month indicate that even the newer
structures are of low value construction.
The Central Area is characterized by the highest percentage of popu-
lation in the under five age group and a relatively even distribution of
population by general age categories. The median age for this area
is 23. 7 years. The low median age coupled with the high percentage
of infants indicates an area where family formation rates are extremely
high and "young married" families predominate. Family income in
the area was $5,463 and per capita annual total income affected by the
relatively large family size, was $1,560. The highest proportion of
rentals for the planning area occurs in the downtown area and the
median rent of $78 per month indicates that property values are in line
with the market characteristics of the population's relatively low per
capita income, low age distribution, and large family size.
In general, the area attracts the young families with small youngsters.
These families are, in general, in the lower income groups. Many of
these are military families from Camp Pendleton in the lower rank,
lower pay categories. In addition, the area is a residential community
for semi-skilled and unskilled workers engaged in agriculture and
service industry.
The East City Area is newer and characterized by single family home
developments. Families in this area are in the medium to higher in-
come levels and the age group distribution places most of the adult
family members in the mature labor force category. The family com-
position further substantiates the economic and age level of this group.
There is a large number of children in the five to 14 age group and
relatively few in the under five category. This grouping indicates that
the area is attractive to the older, more mature family groups owning
their second or third homes. In addition, these groups are past the
-27-
age of the highest fertility rate based upon birth rate per 1000 popu-
lation. Amenities of living, social and economic patterns of tastes
and preferences for the East City Area group are dissimilar to those
attributable to residents in the Beach or Central Areas and are more
indicative of the characteristics of population locating in the planning
area.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Historic Growth of Industry and Commerce
Employment in San Diego County prior to 1950 was based predomin-
antly on government and agriculture. San Diego employment increased
substantially with the beginning of the Korean War. However, since
the cessation of the Korean War in the middle 1950s, employment in
San Diego County has shown intermittent growth at best. The major
impetus for growth in employment until 1957 was generated by the air-
craft industry which increased from 14,800 employees in 1950 to
55, 650 in 1957. Since 1957, although some adaptation to accommodate
the change from conventional systems to missiles and space vehicles
has occurred, net employment in the aircraft industry and its new
counterpart, space industry, has declined to 34, 950. Since 1957, the
net decrease in aircraft and aerospace employment has been almost
40 per cent.
Although other basic industry, especially in the manufacturing category,
has attempted to absorb this decrease, the whole of manufacturing
industry has decreased by 22 per cent in the same period. The in-
crease in non-manufacturing employment has tended to soften the
effects of the decrease in manufacturing employment. However, the
aerospace industry has become extremely competitive in the last two
to three years, and although the markets for these industries have
been expanding, the rate of expansion has declined considerably.
With the current shift of Government spending from the western states
to the south and southwest, the future chances for development of
large scale plants in the San Diego area in the next decade are some-
what remote. (This is substantiated by most of the industry research
studies made for Southern California. )
-28-
Potential for Growth of Industry and Commerce
The possibility of growth is greatest in the electronics industry and
plants of this type have located in the San Diego metropolitan area as
well as the north coastal area of San Diego County, notably in Ocean-
side, San Marcos and Escondido. It is not unreasonable to assume
that some additional growth in this area is possible. However, elec-
tronics plants are attractive to local areas nationwide and competition
among local communities for this type of industry is extremely high.
In the past years, these industries have tended to locate adjacent to
advanced centers of higher learning where skilled technicians and
scientists are available. The location of the University of California
at La Jolla may satisfy this criterion in the future, although competi-
tion from other areas of the nation with established universities will
continue to increase.
It is reasonable to assume that electronics and aerospace firms will
continue to grow to some degree and employment in this category
should increase to about 30,000 workers in 1970 or 10,000-12,000
more than in I960. However, even this substantial increase in elec-
tronics and aerospace employment cannot offset the probable decline
in aircraft employment of about 18,000-20,000 workers that will
occur in 1970.
In the later 1970s however, the San Diego economy should stabilize
and growth should increase at a somewhat greater rate than in this
decade and the early years of the next.
It is realized that economic considerations are not the sole determin-
ants of plant location and, in some cases, management preferences
can negate economic logic. Therefore, it is possible that San Diego
may attract some industries that, on an economic basis, have no
business being there. This type of firm, although important, does
not generally change the economic environment for growth since, in
most cases, businesses are motivated by economic considerations.
Effect of Potential Growth on the Planning Area
In the north coastal San Diego area, growth in the next decade probably
will not surpass that of the 1960s. Although significant growth has
occurred in the area since I960, much of it is due to the location of
electronics plants in the area, which created a multiplicative growth
effect extending over the past two or three years.
-29-
In addition, some transfer from the San Diego city area has occurred.
As an example of this transfer, 25-plus per cent of the labor forces
of San Marcos, Vista and Escondido work in San Diego city and com-
mute daily. In contrast, less than five per cent of the labor force
residing in Carlsbad are employed in San Diego city. With the com-
pletion of Freeway 101 to San Diego, more transfer of population from
San Diego should accrue to the Carlsbad area. In addition, plant ex-
pansions and locations of new plants in the north coastal San Diego
area, especially in Oceanside, San Marcos and Escondido, should add
to Carlsbad's future labor force. Carlsbad will also share in such
increases. However, industrial growth has already occurred in other
areas, whereas in Carlsbad such growth has not taken place.
Some industry may be attracted to Carlsbad proper if the city is willing
to implement programs to create an industrial sites commission to
actively seek out industrial firms and offer them concessions of a cost-
saving nature. Cooperation of local land owners and the city is nec-
essary if significant changes are to occur in raw land costs in Carlsbad
relative to competing areas. Even if these programs are developed,
the amount of industry locating in Carlsbad will not be a primary fac-
tor in community growth and the majority of labor force growth will
be derived from adjacent areas.
LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS
Labor force projections for the City of Carlsbad were made based on
normal San Diego County growth characteristics adjusted for the Carls-
bad economic environment. Table 7 indicates the labor force projec-
tions for San Diego County, City of San Diego and City of Carlsbad for
1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985.
TABLE 7
LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
San Diego County 439,790 511,400 582,100 671,000 756,100 835,000
San Diego City 259,747 296,200 321,900 356,700 377,900 390,700
Carlsbad 3,241 4,225 5,340 6,800 8,670 10,150
Source: U. S. Bureau of Census, State of California, Department of
Employment, DMJM Economics.
-30-
Comparative Analysis by Type of Industry, Current and Future
An analysis of the character of commercial and industrial development
in Carlsbad and adjacent areas is presented in this report. The tech-
nique used is that of specilization coefficients or location quotient
(L:Q) analysis. This type of analysis simply relates the percentage of
employment in a particular industry at the local level to a comparable
percentage at the county and state level. If the coefficient is greater
than 1.00, then the particular industry is "specialized" in the local
area. As an example, if Carlsbad attracts a significant tourist trade
it will be reflected in such commerce as eating and drinking establish-
ments, retail trade, personal services, entertainment and recreation
services.
In general, it is assumed that an L:Q of 1.25 or better indicates rela-
tive importance of an industry. If this criterion is used, employment
in Carlsbad is specialized in agriculture, construction, retail trade,
personal services and public administration. (Table 8)
Although population in Carlsbad has indicated significant growth, a
considerable amount of land adjacent to the city and within the planning
area is devoted to agricultural uses, predominantly flowers and field
crops. Although a definitive analysis of the economics of agricultural
land use was not made for this report, it is estimated that over 3,000
acres of land are used for agricultural purposes in the nearby areas.
Due to the relatively low rents, the central area of Carlsbad is attrac-
tive to agricultural service workers and the East City Area is attractive
to farm managers and growers.
Population in Carlsbad has grown at a somewhat greater rate than the
population of the state. Therefore, the demand for housing has been
greater. Because of this demand, construction activity has been rela-
tively higher in Carlsbad, thereby creating opportunities for employ-
ment in construction activity at a somewhat greater rate than the
average for the state.
The third area is public administration. Smaller communities generally
are relatively specialized in this area, predominantly because they are
small and thereby unable to spread employment in government over a
wide population and labor-force base.
-31-
TABLE 8
CITY OF CARLSBAD
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS
EMPLOYMENT
SMSA*
L:Q
Agric. Forestry & Fishing
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Furn., Lumber, Wood
Machinery
Metal Industries
Trans, equipment
Other durable goods
Food & Kindred
Textile & Apparel
Print, Publish., allied
Other non-durable
Trans., Util & San. Svcs.
Finance, Ins. , Real Estate
Wholesale Trade
Eating and Drinking
Other Retail Trade
Bus. & Repair Svc.
Pers. svcs. (in-house)
Entertain. & Rec. Svcs.
Prof. & Related Svcs.
Public Administration
Other Industries
Total
Carlsbad
(%)
7.4
0.6
9.5
9.5
0. 6
2.8
0. 9
0.6
0. 6
1. 1
0. 3
2. 3
0. 3
5. 1
4. 8
1.4
3. 1
17. 2
2.8
7. 8
1:1
14. 7
12.6
2.6
Carlsbad
L:Q
1.57
1. 20
1. 51
0.39
0.40
0. 65
0. 23
0. 14
0. 33
0. 38
0. 27
1. 35
0. 12
0.75
0. 94
0. 37
1.00
1.46
0.82
1. 37
0.79
1. 18
2.06
0. 55
San Diego
SMSA %
3. 0
0. 2
8. 2
23. 2
0.4
1.4
9.8
6.6
0.9
1.6
0.4
1. 5
0. 5
5. 1
5. 2
2.7
3. 2
13. 0
3. 1
6.5
1. 2
12.6
9.0
3.8
0. 64
1. 20
1. 30
0. 96
0. 27
0. 33
2.45
1. 50
0. 50
0. 55
0. 36
0.88
0. 19
0. 75
1. 02
0. 71
1. 03
1. 10
0. 91
1. 14
0. 86
1. 01
1.48
0. 81
State
4.7
1.
2.
5
3
100. 0%100. 0%
0.
6.
24. 2
1. 5
4. 3
4.0
4.4
8
9
1. 1
1. 7
2. 6
6.8
5. 1
3.8
3. 1
11.8
3.4
5. 7
1.4
12. 5
6. 1
4. 7
100. 0%
-^Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Census
California Department of Employment
DMJM Economics
-32-
The two coefficients of retail trade and personal services are more
complex. Ordinarily, employment in retail trade should be lower on
the average in Carlsbad than elsewhere, due to the lower per capita
income levels. In addition, personal services, for the same reason,
would ordinarily be somewhat lower.
Tourist trade is the factor affecting an increase in retail trade and
personal services. Tourist areas generally are also specialized in
eating and drinking places, and entertainment and recreation services.
However, the type of tourist trade and the general environment of the
tourist area (Beach Area) change the "normal" relationships and result
in the type of specilization evident for Carlsbad. The tourist attracted
to Carlsbad is generally of the older age groups, predominantly inter-
ested in rest and relaxation and less interested in social recreation of
an active nature. The result is a lower demand for restaurants and/or
places of recreation and amusement.
The current class of tourists visiting in Carlsbad does not spend signi-
ficantly in the local area, and does not create a demand for extensive
development of tourist-oriented commercial or business enterprises.
Because of the more-or-less stable nature of the Beach Area and the
current character of its land use, potential development along the
beach is somewhat restricted. Although some land re-use is possible,
and inevitable under the general plan, it is improbable to assume that
any radical change in the nature of tourist trade attracted to the Beach
Area will occur in the near future (1965 - 1975). The Agua Hedionda
Lagoon area, however, has a good potential for attracting the higher-
value tourist trade in the future, and planned development in the area
must be conducive to such development.
-33-
PART IV
CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE POPULATION
The future population of Carlsbad will have somewhat different char-
acteristics than the current population due to future immigration.
Currently, population of Carlsbad in percentage terms relative to San
Diego County's population differs in two major groupings.
Due to the high percentage of families with young children in the
Central Area, the percentage of population in the under 15 age group
is substantially higher than the comparable age group in San Diego
city. Also, at the opposite end of the age spectrum, the proportion
of Carlsbad's population in the over 50 age group is substantially
higher. The greatest divergence, however, exists in the 15 to 30 age
group where the proportion of Carlsbad's population is substantially
lower than the comparable proportion of the county level.
Basically, there are three reasons for the differing proportionality of
age groupings in Carlsbad relative to the county. These have been
described previously in general terms but are summarized again be-
cause these characteristics of Carlsbad's population are integral to
future developments. The large number of children under 15 is due
to the character of land use in the downtown area and the attractive-
ness of this area for low-ranking military personnel and service in-
dustry workers. The relatively low percentage of individuals in the
15 to 30 age group is explained easily. There is nothing in Carlsbad
or vicinity to attract or hold the population of this age group. The
variety of jobs for this age group is limited and, although junior
colleges have been located in the area in the last few years, schools
at the post-high school level are few.
The preponderance of older age groups in the Carlsbad area has been
explained in terms of the caliber and type of development that has
occurred in the Beach Area. Rentals are cheap, living is relatively
inexpensive, and there are formal retirement communities located
in Carlsbad for this age group.
Whether these characteristics are good or bad for future growth is
purely academic since they do exist and they have a profound effect
upon the location and character of future growth. The future popula-
tion of the Carlsbad planning area should encompass three categories
of growth.
-34-
Upgrading of the Central Area will no doubt occur; however, the
caliber and type of development will follow much the same pattern as
that currently prevailing. The population migrating into the Central
Area will be composed of younger, less-skilled, lower income families.
These family groups will be attracted to the area predominately to
fulfill employment requirements of the additional service industry and
retail trade generated from two sources.
The first source is the anticipated increase in population in the East
City Area, composed of upper income families contributing technical
and skilled personnel to the local and regional labor force. Adult
members of these families will be in the 30 to 45 age group with fewer
small children, more teenagers, and some children of college age.
The second source is the second home tourist group locating predomi-
nantly in the Lagoon area. These are in the middle and upper income
age groups. In addition, but less significant, will be the additional
immigration of senior citizens. These will tend to locate in the Beach
Area under similar conditions to those currently prevailing with some
upgrading due to the implementation of planned development. In
summary, three types of increase are probable:
o Increase in undeveloped portions of the planning
area: Age groups 30 to 40, beyond highest child-
bearing age, with older children of college age,
many of which are physically located away from
the family unit.
o Increase in the Central Area: Age groupings
17 to 40, majority of families in highest child-
bearing age, large families with a proportion-
ately greater number of pre-school children.
o Increase in the Beach Area: Age groupings
mixed, 20 to 80, high concentration of age 50
groups.
POPULATION INCREASE - COMPOSITION
The type of increase indicated by the above characteristics is mani-
fested by two primary factors affecting the composition of future
population growth.
-35-
The high percentage of population in older age groups tends to cause
an increase in the death rate within the community and, concurrently,
the relatively low concentration of adults in the high child-bearing
groups tends to decrease the birth rate.
The net effect upon future population growth is such that a relatively
low proportion of growth will be attributable to net natural increase
and a relatively greater proportion attributable to immigration.
Three areas were considered in the determination of the rate of net
natural increase probable in the planning area, San Diego County,
City of San Diego, and Carlsbad. The historic birth rates of San
Diego County and city are almost identical, varying in recent years
less than one birth per 1,000 population (significant differences occur-
red in the 1930s and 1940s).
Birth rates over the past ten years have varied between 22 and 28
births per 1,000 population for the two areas. However, since 1957,
the birth rate has decreased rather significantly, falling from over
27 to about 22 per 1,000 population.
The death rates for these areas have also been similar and have been
extremely stable. In latter years, the death rate has stabilized at
about seven per 1,000 population. The rate of net natural increase
(births minus deaths) is approximately 13 to 15 per 1,000 population.
A review of the future growth pattern of the planning area indicates
that death rates will be higher due to the age distribution in the Beach
Area. Although birth rates are quite high in the Central Area due to
family composition and age distribution, they are somewhat reduced
below "normal" in the overall city due to the older age distribution in
the new city area. It is anticipated, therefore, that the rate of net
natural increase will vary between ten and 12 per 1,000 population;
resulting in a net natural increase of about 4,500 population by 1985.
Immigration will contribute approximately 12,000 population, re-
sulting in a total increase from both sources of 16, 500. Total 1985
population for the planning area, excluding harbor effects, is esti-
mated at 27,500. The harbor (discussed later in the report) is esti-
mated to contribute an additional 3,500 population to the planning area
growth by 1985. Total population, contingent upon early success of
the harbor development, is estimated at approximately 31,000.
-36-
PERSONAL INCOME
Projections of personal income are, at best, rough approximations.
Personal income is stated in dollar terms rather than in amounts of
goods and services. Therefore, personal income in real terms is a
function of the wage-price level. The projections of personal income
and disposable income in this section are suspect if taken absolutely
or specifically. They are, however, well-founded estimates of gen-
eral prosperity and indicative of relative real purchasing power.
Income characteristics of the population in the planning area have
been previously discussed. Certain factors which have a significant
impact upon the level of expenditure that can be maintained are apparent.
Since 1947, family incomes statewide have almost doubled in dollar
terms. In terms of real purchasing power, however, incomes have
increased only about 130 per cent. This indicates that prices have in-
creased at a greater rate than incomes; however, the demand for
goods and services shows a concurrent increase less than the price
level but greater than unity relative to the pattern of tastes and pre-
ferences of consumers.
Currently, median total family income for the planning area is about
$5,850, ranging from $4,900 in the Beach Area to $7,100 in the East City
Area. Assuming that redistribution of income levels would occur,
the median family income in 1985 would be $5,850 x 1.44, or $8,400.
Due to the characteristics of the future population and the composition
of the immigrant population, a higher estimate is probable. If no
absolute increase in purchase power occurred, median family income
based upon future growth should increast to about $6,500, or $650
greater than that currently prevailing. When adjusted by the index
factor of 1.44 to reflect increases in real income, the projected family
income for 1985 in the planning area is estimated at $9,360.
The population of the planning area in 1985 is estimated at 27,500 (ex-
cluding harbor effects). Assuming family size of 3.2, this population
should include 8,600 families. Therefore, total personal income for
the planning area in 1985 is estimated at $80 million. Total personal
income for the planning area in 1964 was estimated at $24 million. A
comparison of population and income growth indicates that population
will increase about 229 per cent between 1964 and 1985, whereas
family incomes will increase about 333 per cent.
-37-
RETAIL SALES AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL
The quantity of retail sales within a community is generally accepted
as indicative of the commercial activity within the community. Gen-
erally, retail sales can be arbitrarily categorized into specialty or
shopping goods, necessity or convenience goods and services.
The best source for retail sales information is the State of California
Board of Equalization and statistics for Carlsbad and other cities of
the north coastal area were obtained from the Board. The statistics
prepared by them, however, include only those items upon which a
sales tax is levied. Since there exists a wide variety of exempt con-
venience goods, especially in the food and drug category, adjustments
to compensate for exempt items must be made in the Board's retail
sales statistics to arrive at real gross retail sales.
Retail sales for I960 and 1963 for the City of Carlsbad are presented
by type in Table 9. In addition, Table 9 also indicates, for the
yearly periods, the potential retail sales attributable to the population
of Carlsbad relative to disposable income and estimated aggregate
demand.
Three categories of sales in the table are adjusted for exempt goods,
food, drugs, and gasoline utilizing relationships apparent in Califor-
nia. Generally, total food sales are approximately 3.7 to 4.2 times
the taxable food sales.
A factor of 3.96 for food is used in this report. A factor of 1.35 is
used to adjust gasoline service sales and an adjustment of 3.44 is
used for drug sales.
In I960, 178 retail outlets in Carlsbad generated $5,686,000 of taxable
retail transactions, relative to a city population of 9,253. In 1963,
191 outlets generated a comparable dollar volume of $5,999,000 rela-
tive to a population of 11, 988.
The I960 and 1963 transactions, when adjusted by the factors discussed
above, indicate total retail sales of $7,262,000 and $8,303,000 respec-
tively. These figures indicate three salient points. First, retail
sales in the city in I960 were 80 per cent of the residential potential
indicating a sales leakage of 20 per cent.
-38-
TABLE 9
CITY OF CARLSBAD
ACTUAL SALES VS. RESIDENT SALES POTENTIAL
Actual Sales Residential Sales Potential
Item
Food
Eating & Drinking
General Merchandise
Apparel
Furniture & Appliances
Auto Dealers
Gasoline Service
Lumber &t Hardware
Drugs &; Pro.
Other Ret.
Non- store Ret.
I960
2, 502,000
440,000
N/A
374, 000
150, 000
N/A
401, 000
889,000
N/A
507, 000
1,999,000
1963
3,257, 000
627, 000
172, 000
416, 000
264, 000
N/A
246, 000
765, 000
N/A
498, 000
2, 058, 000
I960
2, 304, 000
722, 000
1,001, 000
574, 000
435, 000
1,443, 000
574, 000
574, 000
287, 000
860, 000
287, 000
1963
2, 985,000
935, 000
1, 307, 000
743, 000
563, 000
1,870, 000
744, 000
744, 000
373, 000
1,, 115, 000
372, 000
Total Ret.7, 262, 000 8,303,000 9,061,000 11, 750, 000
Source: State of California, Board of Equalization
-39-
Second, retail sales in the city in 1963 were 71 per cent of resident
potential indicating a sales leakage of 29 per cent and an increase in
expenditure outside the city of an additional nine per cent, resulting
in a 45 per cent increase in sales leakage between I960 and 1963.
The added population attributable to 1960-1963 growth indicates a
resident potential of $980 per capita. Actual expenditure was $381
per capita. The net effect on retail sales is a reduction in additional
sales volume and a sales leakage over 61 per cent of the potential
sales generated by the added population. Some sales leakage is nor-
mal for the size of the community and the commercial facilities
available. It is improbable that all the residential potential could be
retained in Carlsbad; through proper development of commercial
facilities of those types of business which indicate the greatest sales
leakage, some future leakage can be precluded. Such planning of
commercial development is mandatory for maintaining a healthy
commercial environment within the community.
Food sales (Table 9) are will in line with estimated demand and
appear to indicate some excess due to expenditures by customers
from outside the community or food purchases of tourists.
Lumber and hardware sales also are in excess of resident potential,
showing the effect of agricultural purchases and the sales generated
by the activities of a citizenry living in a somewhat rural atmosphere.
Most of the other categories indicate some leakage, although the stat-
istics for I960 and 1963 are not strictly comparable. To prevent dis-
closure in I960, the volume of sales by general merchandise outlets
in Carlsbad was not reported by the Board of Equalization. In 1963,
sales of $172,000 were reported. This sales figure was 1,125,000
less than the resident potential, resulting in 85 per cent sales leakage. *
Sales of automobiles and retail services probably are below the resi-
dent potential for them and also contribute to the aggregate sales
leakage of 29 per cent.
Continued sales leakage in the categories of general merchandise,
auto sales, furniture and applicances retail services can be expected,
irrespective of city policy toward commerce or investment by private
enterprise in commercial facilities.
* Due to discrepancies in reported statistics, the rate probably is
closer to 50 per cent leakage.
-40-
The reason for continued sales leakage in these categories is the rela-
tive lack of economies inherent in small businesses of the type located
in Carlsbad which is reflected in price and extent of goods and ser-
vices available.
As population and aggregate demand for goods and services increases,
the marginal sales leakage can be diminished. In fact, sales leakage
can be diminished at a rate greater than the increase in effective de-
mand and some recapture of sales in the area is possible. For this
recapture to occur, the city policy toward commerce must be enthu-
siastic and the attractiveness of investment for private developers in
commercial facilities in Carlsbad must be maintained and strengthened
relative to closely competing areas. Such tools as zoning restrictions,
in accordance with general planning, can supply the needed mechanism
by which growth of commerce is possible.
Table 10 indicates the retail sales potential for city commerce in 1985.
The sales volume of $25 million is based upon an addition to popula-
tion of about 16,500 with increased aggregate real income as discussed
in the previous section. Considering recapture of some portion of
sales leakage, and including tourist expenditures, total retail sales
in the planning area should total about $35 million in 1985. On a per
capita basis, the 1985 spendable income on retail sales is estimated
at about $1, 380 compared with a 1963-64 figure of less than $1, 000.
The increase of about 38 per cent is attributable to increases in real
income in terms of present dollars. Therefore, actual monetary in-
come may be $2,500 or higher in 1985 but such an income may control
only about $1,400 worth of real goods and services relative to today's
price levels.
-41-
TABLE 10
CITY OF CARLSBAD
POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES GENERATED BY
POPULATION INCREASES
1985
ITEM
Food
Eating and Drinking
General Merchandise
Apparel
Furniture and Appliances
Automotive
Gasoline Service
Lumber, Building &; Hardware
Drugs
Other Retail
Non-store Retail
Total
POTENTIAL SALES
General Plan Area Harbor Effect
$ 7,416, 000
2,043, 000
2,800, 000
1, 630, 000
1,060,000
2,384,000
1, 629, 000
1,811,000
921, 000
.2, 698, 000
827,000
$25, 219, 000
$ 1, 112, 000
306,000
420,000
245,000
159,000
358,000
244,000
272,000
140,000
405,000
124,000
$3, 785, 000
Source: DMJM Economics
-42-
PART V
LAND USE PROJECTIONS
The objective of the economic analysis is simply to determine how
the resources in the community of Carlsbad and the planning area can
best be utilized. Because a city is a geographical as well as political
entity, the general plan is concerned primarily with land use. Land
use projections and, therefore, future allocations of land use relative
to potential effective demand, are presented in this section.
Land use and its impact upon the product it produces in conjunction
with labor, capital investment and management resources are integral
to the development of the general plan. Because of this conjunctive
use of resources, and because land is the only fixed quantity, projec-
tions of land use must be in accord with and complementary to other
resources.
Land use in this section of the report is subdivided into four categories
indicated below:
o Single-family residential (stated in numbers of
dwelling units).
o Multi-family residential (stated in numbers of
dwelling units).
o Retail commercial (stated in numbers of acres),
o General commercial (stated in numbers of acres).
Building permit data for San Diego County and selected urban commu-
nities in the County, including Carlsbad, were evaluated for the pur-
pose of determining trends in character, value and numbers of resi-
dential units. Three tables are presented, their salient points
explained and conclusions implied.
o Table 11 indicates the numbers and value of
total building activity in the selected areas
between 1959 and 1963 inclusive.
-43-
TABLE 11
CITY OF CARLSBAD
ALL BUILDING PERMITS - NUMBER AND VALUE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SELECTED CITIES
1959 - 1963
Valuation (000) 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963
San Diego County
Number 29,971 14,589 11,122 9,070 12,814
$ Value 460,864 313,329 261,062 241,970 293,460
Carlsbad
Number
$ Value
Chula Vista
Number
$ Value
El Cajon
Number
$ Value
Escondido
Number
$ Value
La Mesa
Number
$ Value
National City
Number
$ Value
Oceanside
Number
$ Value
San Diego
Numbe r
$Value
Vista
Number
$ Value
369
4, 984
1, 636
23, 930
1, 141
18,821
1,099
12,897
762
15,755
621
10, 342
777
14, 537
13, 351
209,665
142
2,902
583
12, 021
708
16, 697
641
9,938
400
16,475
132
3, 348
388
8,480
6,095
136, 555
244
3, 132
490
8, 618
160
7, 145
113
6,098
167
6, 159
464
7,313
553
10, 308
6,745
146,945
217
4, 246
397
10,407
320
6,792
223
4, 555
205
5,901
331
3,714
384
8,771
4,666
141, 258
190
3, 050
1, 376
23,933
913
12, 782
480
7,802
571
10,001
273
3, 183
814
16,817
5, 312
145, 600
145
2, 258
Source: Copley Press, Security First National Bank, DMJM Economics
-44-
The factor of significance directly indicated by Table 11 is the dip in
construction activity between 1959 and I960. The north coastal
communities recovered rather quickly after I960, whereas those
communities closest to San Diego tended to require an additional year
before recovery. The main reason for difference in cyclical move-
ment is the relative stability of development and lack of large scale
speculation within north coastal communities where supply of housing
is related somewhat to effective demand. In the communities closer
to San Diego, oversupply of units caused by large scale speculation
occurred, thereby requiring the time lapse to equate supply of units
relative to supply.
o Table 12 indicates the relatively small spread
in the annual average value of building permits
issued in the City of Carlsbad relative to other
comparable areas.
o Residential permits and valuation were analyzed
for 1962 and 1963 for the selected areas. Table
13 shows the results of this analysis.
The significant factor in Table 13 is the medium to high value of single-
family units and, especially in 1962, the relatively low value of multi-
family units. The majority of multi-family units, however, has been
constructed in the Central Area where, as previously discussed, ren-
tal ranges are low.
In summary, building activity in the recent past indicates three dis-
tinct trends. The first is the relative stability of private and public
investment. This is indicated by the small range in annual average
values apparent for Carlsbad. Also indicated is the negligible
amount of large-scale public or commercial investment. This lack
of commercial investment, prior to 1964, is reflected in the increased
sales leakage, partially attributable to the apparent lack in construc-
tion of needed commercial facilities. In 1964, however, beginnings
of a "catching up" process occurred. (Four acres of retail comm-
ercial land has been added in the Central Area. )
The second point is the moderate to high average value of single-family
construction. Most of this has occurred in the East City Area,
creating additional effective demand for goods and services by the
moderate to high income groups purchasing these homes.
-45-
TABLE 12
CITY OF CARLSBAD
AVERAGE VALUE OF BUILDING PERMITS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SELECTED CITIES
1959 - 1963
San Diego County
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
El Cajon
Escondido
La Mesa
National City
Oceanside
San Diego
1959
$15, 377
13, 507
14, 627
16,495
11, 735
20, 676
16, 654
18, 709
15, 704
I960
$21,477
20,437
20, 619
23, 583
15, 504
41, 188
25, 363
21,855
22,404
1961 1962 1963
12,836 19,567 16,053
17,588 26,214 17,393
44,656 21,225 14,000
53,965 20,426 16,254
36,880 28,785 17,514
19,690 11,220 11,569
18,640 22,841 20,660
21,786 30,274 27,410
Source: Security First National Bank, DMJM Economics
-46-
TABLE 13
CITY OF CARLSBAD
NUMBER AND VALUATION OF BUILDING PERMITS
SINGLE AND MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
1962 - 1963
Single- Multi- Single- Multi-
Family Family Family Family
1962 1962 1963 1963
San Diego County
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
Carlsbad
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
Oceanside
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
El Cajon
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
Escondido
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
La Mesa
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit
San Diego
Number of Units
Value ($)
Average Value Per Unit ($)
5,697
91,495
16,060
178
2, 986
16,775
273
4, 330
15, 860
133
1, 929
14,503
157
1,897
12, 083
150
2,790
18,600
3, 373
20,701
6, 137
39
233
5,974
111
838
7, 550
187
1, 013
5,417
66
449
6, 803
55
542
9,854
7, 090
113, 811
16, 052
57
1, 139
19,983
539
7.979
14,803
145
2,711
18,696
124
1, 340
10, 807
187
3, 312
17, 711
5, 724
45, 121
7, 882
133
1, 008
7, 580
275
2, 070
7, 527
768
6,690
8, 710
356
2,945
8, 272
384
3, 566
9,286
2, 667
41,761
15, 658
1,999
12, 185
6, 096
3,441
52,487
15, 253
1,871
12,219
6, 530
Source: Copley Press, San Diego County, Security First National Bank,
DMJM Economics
-47-
The third point is the low value multi-family. This is related to
location and value range, but it also tends to solidify the Central
Area for somewhat lower income, lower value commercial and resi-
dential, which in turn provides stimulus to new high value commercial
development in the East City Area. The general plan, with appro-
priate provisions for Central Area revitalization, can diminish this
trend and selective upgrading can reintroduce higher value commer-
cial to the downtown core.
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Two approaches were utilized to determine the estimates of single-
family and multi-family residential units. The first presupposes an
increase in incomes and, hence, in public and private expenditures.
The second uses the more pedestrian method of relating households
and population to demand for residential units.
Table 14 indicates the value per capita for particular types of invest-
ments in selected communities resulting in the following pertinent
trends. Between 1954 and 1964, per capita value of residential con-
struction in Carlsbad was $3,320. Concurrently, in other communi-
ties comparable per capita rates were $4,954 for San Diego, $4, 246
for San Diego County and $4, 480 for Oceanside. In terms of the
rates for residential capital formed per capita, Carlsbad is lowest
of these areas and is only two-thirds of the per capita value of San
Diego.
Since incomes of the future population (20, 000) will be higher and
additional investment will be generated by tourist activity, it has been
assumed that the per capita value of residential capital will increase
to about $5,000. On this basis, total additional private investment in
residential capital for the City of Carlsbad in 1985 is estimated at
$100 million.*
The value per unit of moderate multi-family construction is estimated
at $7,000 per unit. On the basis of the total value of residential
capital formed, exclusive of the effect of a small craft harbor, 1280
additional units of multi-family, and about 3850 units of single-family
will be required.
* Includes effect of a small craft harbor development.
-48-
TABLE 14
CITY OF CARLSBAD
COMPARATIVE CAPITAL VALUATION PER CAPITA
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SELECTED CITIES
Carlsbad
Total Valuation
Residential
Commercial & Ind.
Public
Population
Population
San Diego County
Total Valuation
Resid.
C & I
Public
Population
Population
Jan 1
1954
(000)
$ 4,600
5,991
760,200
2,583,903
1,644,266
434,299
267,402
1,147,497
387,297
1954 - 1964
Per Capita
$ 26,
19,
2,
2,
11,
5,
905
908
866
630
988
977
$ 4,486
3,320
481
439
6,671
4,246
1,121
690
Oceanside
Total Valuation 12,703
Resid.
C & I
Public
Population 19,433
Population
San Diego City
Total Valuation 343,534
Resid.
C & I
Public
Population 467,100
Population
80,649
47,121
9,961
10,000
29,949
10,516
1,315,118
777,341
233,435
157,550
624,010
156,910
7,669
4,480
947
950
8,381
4,954
1,488
1,004
Source: Copley Press, San Diego County, Security First National Bank,
DMJM Economics.
Valuation of permits shown below are additions to 1954 totals, except the
figures for total valuation.
-49-
Currently, including duplexes, the ratio of single-family to multi-
family is over 12 to one. Therefore, it is anticipated that multi-
family unit construction will indicate a modest increase in importance
in the future.
The second method used to determine residential construction is based
upon average size of family (3.0), population increase (16,400), and an
assumed percentage of multi-family units (25%). * Based upon these
factors, 5, 500 residential units would be required. The 1, 375 units
would be multi-family units and 4, 125 would be single-family units.
The first technique is more comprehensive; therefore, the figures in
Table 15 are considered indicative of the residential development
attributable to the planning area.
TABLE 15
SINGLE-FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY UNITS
ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS 1985*
Single-family residential (in addition to existing): 3, 850 units
Multi-family residential (in addition to existing): 1, 280 units
On the basis of standard construction costs, single-family units
should average about 1600-1800 square feet of gross floor area, ex-
cluding garage and patio; multi-family units should average about
650-750 square feet of gross floor area excluding ramps, corridors,
stairwells, and carports.
Due to the limitations imposed by current development, future resi-
dential development should occur in four primary areas:
o Lower valued multi-family and some minor
single-family housing should develop in the
Central Area.
Excludes effect of small craft harbor.
-50-
o Better value multi-family housing should develop
in the Beach Area through re-use of land.
o Higher value single-family residential housing
should develop in the East City Area and expand
onto undeveloped lands out of the present city,
but within the planning area.
o Although some minor multi-family construction
may occur in the East City Area and undeveloped
portion of the planning area, the majority of
multi-family or high density residential develop-
ment should occur adjacent to the lagoon and in
conjunction with single-family use also generated
in the area surrounding the lagoon.
TRANSITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
In June, 1964, appraisal report of 23 parcels were reviewed by DMJM
economists. Although the parcels were distributed throughout the
planning area, the majority were continguous or adjacent to Agua
Hedionda Lagoon.
Parcel sizes ranged from less than 5,000 square feet to 165 acres.
Appraised value of the parcels varied from less than $0.10 per square
foot ($4,000 per acre) for less well situated parcels, to $1. 00 per
square foot ($44,000 per acre) for land with water frontage. Residual
values to land for newly developed parcels in Carlsbad range from
about $35, 000 per acre for family homes to as high as $100, 000 for
downtown commercial offices. Beach frontage is valued at between
$350 and $700 a front foot, indicating ranges of between $70, 000 and
$150, 000 per acre for prime beach frontage.
Value is a function of land use demand, scarcity and marketability.
These three components, as analyzed, indicate the hierarchy of
development for the Carlsbad planning area generally, and the Agua
Hedionda Lagoon area specifically.
The general plan assumes a "roof top" view of the planning area. Such
a "roof top" occurs only through staged development as land values
justify development, thereby creating a conflict between land holding
controls and development potential in the early years of the planning
period.
-51-
I
Because of the relatively modest land values existing in the Carlsbad
area, it is evident that transitional uses will occur in potentially high
value areas. The "roof top" development will probably take place
through a phasing from low density - medium value residential, or
commercial to medium density - medium value residential, or comm-
ercial to high density - high value development on beach lagoon front-
age. Controls over development must be conducive to such an orderly
transition. Simply stated, controls to development should not stifle
orderly growth by creating unrealistic restrictions upon land use den-
* sity in prime locations such as the Beach Area or Lagoon Area, or
in prime off-water areas adjacent to 100 per cent location. High den-
* sity - high value residential or commercial development will not be a
* primary factor in the Carlsbad planning area in the near future, and
although such development must be considered in a long range program,
' transitional uses must be considered and allowed for in the early years
* of the planning period.
! HARBOR EFFECT
The small craft harbor, if constructed, should have the effect of in-
1 creasing the population of the planning area by about 3, 500 persons.
1 Studies of developed harbor and lagoon areas show that the average
family living adjacent to the harbor has three m'embers or less. An
* average family size of three persons would require approximately
1 1, 170 residential units. Due to the high land values and the economic
pressures arising therefrom for more intense use of residential, it
is probable that the majority of the land will require multiple family
1 dwelling units. Based upon this assumption, it is reasonable to
assume that residential units in the lagoon area will be distributed;
720 units to multi-family use and 480 units to single-family residences.
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL REQUIREMENTS
The growth potential of the planning area, including harbor effect,
indicates that additional 4, 330 single-family units and 2, 000 multi
family units will be required in the planning area by 1985.
« COMMERCIAL LAND USE
i
Commercial requirements for the City of Carlsbad are arbitrarily
subdivided into two categories: retail commercial and general comm-
ercial. The category of retail commercial is limited to consumption
-52-
TABLE 16
CITY OF CARLSBAD
RETAIL - COMMERCIAL LAND USE REQUIREMENTS
PLANNING AREA - 1985
GENERAL PLAN AREA HARBOR AREA
Food
Eating and Drinking Establishments
General Merchandising
Apparel Stores
Furniture and Appliances
Automotive Dealers
Gasoline Service Stations
Lumber, Building and Hardware
Drugs and Proprietary
Other Retail
Non-Store Retailers
TOTAL RETAIL STORES
Building
Area (sq. ft.)
50, 000
34, 000
35, 000
20,000
11, 000
N/A*
N/A*
36, 000
.15, 000
54, 000
5, 000
Gross Land
Area (sq. ft.)
175, 000
119, 000
123, 500
70,000
39, 000
348, 000
435, 600
126, 000
53, 000
189, 000
18, 000
Acres
4. 0
2. 7
2. 8
3.4
0.9
8.0
10. 0
2.9
1. 2
4. 3
0.4
Building
Area (sq.ft.)
6, 000
5,000
5, 000
5,000
2, 000
11, 000
14,000
5,000
2, 000
6, 500
Gross Land
Area (sq. ft.)
26, 700
22, 250
22, 250
22, 250
9, 000
53,400
66, 750
22, 250
9, 000
31, 150
Acres
0.6
0. 5
0. 5
0. 5
0. 2
1. 2
1. 5
0. 5
0. 2
0. 7
Total
Acres
4. 6
3.2
3. 3
3.9
1. 1
9.2
11.5
3.4
1.4
5. 0
0.4
303, 000 1, 695, 100 40. 6 61, 500 285, 000 6.4
(Rounded)
47.0
50.0
* Not Available
Source: State of California, Board of Equalization
Urban Land Institute
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
DMJM Economics
well as residential development, will increase, it is anticipated that
the business and repair category will increase to at least average, or
close to 1.00, for the metropolitan area.
Due to the expected increase in second home and tourist trade, enter-
tainment and recreation services should also increase to about the
same level. The net effect is to increase the total service/population
ratio above the norm in these categories. Based upon the above cri-
teria, additional land use requirements for services in 1985 in the
planning area are estimated at 0.15 acres per 100 population, or 25
acres. The development of a small craft harbor in the planning area
would increase the total new service requirements by about six acres.
Total additional land required for service activity, including harbor
effect, is estimated at about 30 acres by 1985.
OFFICE COMMERCIAL
Offices are subdivided into two types for computation purposes:
medical-dental and general.
Medical-Dental
Due to the close proximity of San Diego, Oceanside, and the Tri-City
Hospital, the requirements for medical and dental care will be
general in nature since specialists in these fields tend to locate close
to major hospital facilities. Due to the nearby location of the Tri-
City Hospital, some doctors may tend to locate offices in Carlsbad,
but, nevertheless, the net effect will be a lower ratio on the basis of
population than that normally attributable. Although some doctors and
dentists may tend to reside in Carlsbad due to the residential ameni-
ties, the demand for medical and dental office space should be gener-
ated by ratios of one physician per 1500 population and one dentist per
3000 population respectively, rather than the rates of 1/3000 and
1/1000 that usually exist.
General
General office space projections for the City of Carlsbad should be in
line with general requirements for a satellite city, which are 500
square feet per 100 population including site coverage.
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Based upon the foregoing assumptions, medical and dental space plus
general office space requirements for the City of Carlsbad in 1985
are estimated at about six acres (Table 17).
TABLE 17
CITY OF CARLSBAD
OFFICE SPACE REQUIREMENTS - 1985
Building Land Area
(sq.ft.) (sq.ft.) Acreage
Medical Office 12,600 44,000 1.00
Dental Office 4,500 16,000 0.38
General Office N/A* 137, 500 3. 20
Total Space Requirements 4. 58
Harbor Effect 1. 00
Total New Required 5. 58
(Rounded) 6.00
* Not Available
Source: DMJM Economics
WHOLESALE COMMERCIAL
Wholesale trade can be divided into two categories: office wholesalers
and goods wholesalers. In a sense, the office wholesaler is a local
agent of a manufacturer or distributor working on a direct shipment
basis, thereby requiring no stocks on hand. The goods wholesaler
requires larger amounts of floor space and greater numbers of
employees.
Wholesale firms tend to locate in centralized locations and to serve
either markets within selected portions of a large community or mar-
kets in surrounding communities. Carlsbad, either now or in the future,
does not fulfill any of the requirements normally associated with whole-
sale trade.
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Normally, for office wholesale, approximately 0.44 employees per
100 population is considered average. The comparable figure for
goods wholesale is about 1,7 employees per 100 population.
Because Carlsbad does not have a competitive advantage over other
areas for wholesale trade from the standpoint of location and economic
activity; adjusted rates of 0. 20 and 0. 50 employees per 100 population
for the two types of wholesale trade are used in projecting land use
requirements.
Table 18 indicates the estimated requirements in the Carlsbad area
attributable to wholesale trade in 1985.
TABLE 18
CITY OF CARLSBAD
WHOLESALE TRADE REQUIREMENTS - 1985
Total
Site Area
Employees (sq. ft. ) Acreage
Office Wholesale* 55 16,500 0.4
Goods Wholesale** 135 162,000 3.7
Total Wholesale Requirement 4. 1
Harbor Effect 1.0
Total (Rounded) 5. 0
* Based upon 300 sq.ft. per employee
** Based upon 1200 sq.ft. per employee
Source: DMJM Economics
Total acreage required for wholesale trade in Carlsbad in 1985, in-
cluding the effect of a small craft harbor, should be about six acres.
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INDUSTRY
Industry is a misunderstood term: meaning all activity to the econo-
mist and manufacturing activity only to the businessman. Because of
the difference in definitions, an arbitrary classification, based upon
the concept of basic employment, is used in this report.
Industry is herein classified as any enterprise or individual engaged
in the change, addition, or assembly of a product or service at the
basic levels of the manufacturing or marketing structure.
Based upon these definitions, less than four acres currently are being
used for industry in the City of Carlsbad. Generally, older cities with
comparable populations tend toward an industry acreage population
ratio of between 0. 53/100 to 0. 21/100. In Carlsbad, the radio of in-
dustrial acreage to population is about 0. 35/100. Assuming a rate of
0. 24 acres of industrial land per 100 population as normal for a city
such as Carlsbad, about 28 acres would be utilized for industry.
Carlsbad has about 14 per cent of this amount. Competing areas in
the north coastal San Diego area indicate substantially higher indus-
trial development. These are summarized below:
o San Marcos, with a population of about 4,000, has
2,000 acres of land available for industry, with
200+ acres occupied. The significant difference
in industrial development is apparent in the indus-
try acreage/population for San Marcos, which is
about 5/100 population.
o The City of Oceanside has 11 industries employing
15 or more workers. There are 500 acres zoned for
industry, of which about 250 acres are occupied. There
is prime industrial land available in both the San
Luis Rey Valley Industrial Area and Loma Alta
Canyon.
o In Vista, about 250 acres are zoned for industry "
and substantial acreages are available for addi-
tional expansion.
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o The City of San Diego has about 2,000 acres
of vacant industrial land, of which 400 acres
are available for immediate occupancy.
o Chula Vista has about 150 acres for immediate
use by industry and additional land available for
industrial use.
o El Cajon has a master planned industrial park
of about 400 acres available to industry, most
of which is vacant and ready for immediate
occupancy.
o Escondido has zoned industrial sites along
Highway 78 totaling about 400 acres. Most of
this is also vacant and ready for immediate
occupancy.
o La Mesa has about 125 acres zoned for industry
and under master planned development. Approxi-
mately 75 per cent is vacant and immediately
available for development.
The above selected areas are only a partial listing of communities
with available land. In total, a rudimentary look indicates more than
5,000 acres of land available for industry, of which about 2, 000 acres
are immediately available for occupancy. *
Each of these communities has an aggressive program for attracting
industry, and utilities, rail service and access to major highway
routes are comparable.
Tax rates in these communities varied between $5.50 and $11 per
$100 assessed valuation in the years 1962-1963. Specific industrial
sites and comparable tax rates are compared in Table 19.
Table 19 indicates one significant factor; tax rates for industrial land
in Carlsbad currently are 20 to 25 per cent higher than competing
areas.
* In the San Diego General Plan Study, over 9,000 acres are considered
available for industry, with about 1,800 being utilized.
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TABLE 19
CITY OF CARLSBAD
Comparative tax rates for Industrial land
1962 - 1963
(per $100 assessed valuation)
Area Rate
Carlsbad City $10,046
San Diego City
Area 1 7,937
Area 2 7,937
Area 3 7,937
Chula Vista City 7,763
El Cajon City 8,536
Escondido City 8,817
Fallbrook 5,992 to 9,662
La Mesa 8,643
National City 7,688
Oceanside 8,782
San Marcos 9,133
Solana Beach 7,358
Source: San Diego City Chamber of Commerce, San Diego County
Planning Commission, San Diego County Assessor, DMJM
Economics.
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In addition, land values for property in Carlsbad are higher than those
for comparable properties in much of the surrounding area. Three
salient points are apparent. First, general land values in Carlsbad
are at least as high as those in competing communities. Second, tax
rates in Carlsbad are at least as high as those in comparable areas.
Third, Carlsbad has almost no developed industrial base upon which
to build.
Significance for Future Industrial Development
A catching-up process does not generally occur in industrial develop-
ment as it can in commercial development. This brief analysis does
not indicate a pessimistic view toward industrial development in Carls-
bad, but points out those facts that might inhibit such development.
When these local disadvantages are placed vis-a-vis general economic
potential for the country, as previously discussed, it is evident that
a typical industrial development in Carlsbad is somewhat improbable.
In this context, assuming a typical increase in industry, the maximum
probable development will be at the minimum typical development for
cities comparable to Carlsbad, or at a level of about 0.21 acres per
100 population. In fact, use of this relationship may be considered as
somewhat optimistic.
On this basis, industrial land use in 1985 for the planning area is
estimated at about 65 acres.
SUMMARY OF LAND REQUIREMENTS
Total additional land use for commercial and industry in acres for
1985 is presented in the following:
Commercial
Retail Commercial 50 acres
Upgrade Present Commercial 10 acres
General Commercial: Services 30 acres
Offices 6 acres
Wholesale 5 acres
Sub-Total Commercial 101 acres
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101 acres
Senior Citizens 4 acres
Sub-Total Commercial 105 acres
Industry 65 acres
Total Commerce and Industry 170 acres
Total additional investment, at a rate indicative of demand potential
in 1985, is approximately $22,500,000. Based upon 120 acres of land,
gross additional investment in capital only is about $185,000 per acre.
Assuming a structure/site coverage ratio of 0. 25, total investment
per square foot of building including secured and unsecured real and
personal property, is estimated at about $ 16.98 per square foot;
which is well within the range of current capital investment in more
mature industrial and commercial areas.
The design of the general plan and implied descriptions of types of
development are therefore limited in character to those within the
range of the estimate aggregate capital formation to 1985.
INVESTMENT
Commercial and Industrial Development
The previous analysis has been directed toward land use rather than
capital formation or value of improvements on the land. This section,
in summary, relates the increasing value of investment to the land use
required.
The increase in commercial and industrial investment in Carlsbad be-
tween 1954 and 1964 averaged $481 per capita. As previously discussed
in the section Personal Income, net income and aggregate demand will
increase. Because of the increases in income and demand, investment
per capita should also indicate increases. Because investment in Carls-
bad will increase at a greater rate than either population or income
(due to location of some industry serving non-local markets), per
capita investment is estimated to increase from $481 to $1,000 by 1985.
This per capita rate of capital formation in commerce and industry is
similar to that currently applicable to Oceanside and slightly lower
than San Diego.
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Based upon a 1985 population of about 31,000, investment in commer-
cial and industrial capital (which, of course, excludes land) is esti-
mated to be in the vicinity of $30-35 million, of which about $20-25
million will be net new investment. Current capital formed, excluding
obsolescence and/or depreciation, is about $5-6 million. Net new
investment to 1985 is therefore at a rate 400 per cent greater than
that currently existing and economic growth of the community, in
qualitative terms, will be much greater than that shown simply in
terms of acres of land or quantitative terms.
Public Investment
Public investment in Carlsbad, excluding land maintenance and opera-
ting costs, averaged about $440 per capita between 1954 and 1964.
Based upon increasing income and assessed valuation potential, public
investment, commensurate with a maturing economic base in 1985 for
the City of Carlsbad, is estimated at about $800 per capita. Total
public investment, including exemptions, is estimated at $25 million.
Included in this total are such capital items as offices, field labora-
tories, conference rooms, equipment, library, health and welfare
buildings, and storage. In addition, functional capital such as road
stations, public works yard, police department (including jail) and
recreation expenditures are included. Total investment, capital plus
land, should approximate $30 million.
In the general plan, any capital improvement program including the
types of development mentioned should be planned within a scope of
about $30-35 million expenditure potential.
Summary of Investment
In Part V, residential investment in the planning area for 1985 was
estimated at $5,000 per capita. Commercial and industrial investment
has been estimated at $1,000 per capita; public investment is estimated
at $800 per capita.
Total investment, excluding land value, for the planning area in the
year 1985 is estimated as: *
Residential Investment $155, 000, 000
Commercial & Industrial Investment 31,000,000
Public Investment 25,000,000
*These dollar values are extremely rough guesses. They only indicate
a relative range of investment within which the plan will function.
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