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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1974-09-03; City Council; 3187; Attitude Survey Refinery ProjectC THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIF M== N I & Agenda Bill No Referred To : . *3 I !? 7 Date: September 3, 1974 Subject: Submitted By: ATTITUDE SURVEY/REFINERY PROJECT City Manager Statement of the Afatter At its August 20, 1974 Council meeting, the City Council instructed the staff to prepare a report on various methods of conducting a survey as to the desirability of establishing zoning which would allow the building of a refinery in Carlsbad. Exhibit Memo to City Council from City Manager dated November 20- , 1974 Letter from San Diego Gas and Electric Company dated August 27, 1974. staff Recommendations to the City Manager SEE CITY MANAGER MEMO AS NO .Date: September 3, 1974 City Manager's Recommendation SEE CITY MANAGER MEMO TO CITY COUNCIL DATED NOVEMBER 20, 1974 WHICH IS ATTACHED. Council Action 9-3-74 A motion was made that the staff be instructed to discontinue any further activities regarding an Attitude Survey on oil refineries in the City of Carlsbad prior 'to the public hearing process on the proposed refinery. -2- DATE: AUGUST 30, 1974 TO: MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL FROM: City Manager SUBJECT: SURVEY/REFINERY At its August 20, 1974 Council meeting the staff was in- structed to bring back a report on various methods of con- ducting a survey as to the desirability of establishing zoning within the City which would allow the building of a refinery. Additionally, comment was made that the method should be economical. The possibilities of conducting such a survey are numerous both as to method and as to content. A method might be considered first. SURVEY METHOD Surveys can range from a clip-out survey questionnaire in the newspaper to the hiring of a professional public opinion polling firm. The population to be polled can also vary from a select sample to polling all residents of Carlsbad. I do not feel that there is any "best" method. Part of the selection of the method should be based upon what information the Council wishes to gather and what use the Council is to make of the information. It would seem that a polling of all registered voters using a stamped, self-addressed portion to be returned to the City would provide the fairest method at the most reasonable cost. It is estimated that the cost would be approximately $2,000. SURVEY CONTENT The content of the survey is probably a more important con- sideration than the method of taking the survey. After reviewing the matter carefully at the staff level, it is felt that there should be several questions and that they should be fairly broad in scope. This is in contrast to simply asking a question such as "Do you favor a refinery? Yes or no?" The reason for this recommendation is that not only may you want to know whether the public is generally favorable or not to zoning which might allow a refinery, but also whether August 30, 1974 Page 2 Subject: Survey/Refinery they wish additional information concerning effects on the environment or the economy of the City prior to making a determination. Additionally, the broader question will help- avoid poten- tial legal problems which could arise in connection with any future applications for ? specific land use. Adequate questions can be developed by the staff and ap- proved by the Council prior to any survey. It should be recogized, however, that the design and inter- pretation of questionnaires has become highly sophisticated. There are many professional firms which specialize in this area. If the Council wishes to achieve more than a general feeling from the community of their attitudes, that is, if Council wishes to have statistical accuracy of the results measured, or if they wish the questions designed to avoid any possibility of bias, consideration should then be given to the retention of an opinion research firm. PAUL D. BUSSEY City Manager PDB:ldg SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY P.O. BOX 1831 SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA 92112 NAM 200 August 27, 1974 Mr. Paul Bussey City Manager City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California Dear Mr. Bussey: 92008 I've read the newspaper accounts reporting that the City of Carlsbad administrative staff has been asked to study how the city might poll voters on several questions, including that of the proposed Macario refinery. SDG&E supports the city's present position, as represented by the majority vote to follow the due process of law and not con- duct an advisory election or poll. But since the staff now must consider the idea of polling voters, my purpose is to provide some information regarding public opinion on the refinery, and to make a request. As you may know, earlier this year Macario contracted with a professional opinion survey organization to do a study in the general North County coastal area. The data was collected between April 27 and May 2. We have not previously released the results for several reasons, and it may be well to state some of them as a perspective for the information and judgments I am going to set forth in this letter. First, any survey is subject to sampling, reliability, and validity errors. The sample doesn't always represent the entire population, respondents don't always disclose their true opinions, and the questionnaire doesn't always measure what it is trying to measure. (more) INVESTOR-OWNED BY MORE THAN 35,000 STOCKHOLDERS SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY Mr. Paul Bussey Page 2 August 27, 1974 Second, recognizing these chances of error, one should be cautious interpreting the results. Third, the sample size in this particular study probably was adequate for the purposes of the study, but it was a small sample, There were 340 personal interviews conducted by professionals, with 150 of the interviews in the City of Carlsbad. Keeping these factors in mind, one can make the following conclusions about public opinion in the City of Carlsbad only: — While more than 85 percent of the people know some- thing about the refinery proposal, the factual level of information is relatively low. For example, approximately half of the sample could not name any of the companies involved in the refinery proposal, -- Carlsbad is fairly evenly split between those who favor the refinery, those who oppose it, and those who said it made no difference or they had no opinion. Whatever margins exist are so slim they are exceeded by the computed statistical chance of error. -- More than 80 percent of the people believe that the refinery would result in an economic benefit to Carlsbad. — More than half the people have questions about the impact on the environment. -- One out of three persons now firmly opposed to the refinery would favor the refinery if they knew that it would meet all of the stringent governmental standards. They recognize that the refinery will help prevent a power shortage and that it would provide an economic benefit to the community. -- If the refinery does meet all of the governmental standards, particularly air and water standards, and if it is well- planned to be as unobtrusive as possible and does not create offensive odors beyond its boundaries, the percentage in favor can be expected to constitute a clear majority. Opposition to the refinery would be supported by from 17 to a maximum of 30 percent of the entire Carlsbad population. (more) SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY Mr. Paul Bussey Page 3 August 27, 1974 We believe that the environmental impact report, the city's subsequent impact statement and the series of hearings to be held by the Planning Commission and the City Council will accomplish s evera1 things. First, it will raise the level of factual information substantially among a much larger portion of the public. Second, the process will result in a determination as to whether the refinery will meet all of the environmental standards of the several agencies concerned. Third, citizens and the City of Carlsbad will have a major effect in shaping and forming the final package, especially from the community planning standpoint. Fourth, following the established procedure ensures a fair hearing to all concerned. However, not all of Carlsbad's voters will be able to attend the hearings, and the press accounts of those hearings should not constitute the sole source of information to the people. Consequently, we request that if it ever is decided to conduct any kind of a straw or advisory vote, then an official statement or argument setting forth the final conclusions of all official hearings be included. The position statement should make it clear that all of the various government agencies concerned with air and water pollution, public health, safety and welfare have weighed the evidence and then state their conclusions or judgments. To do anything less would be prejudicial to the concept of an informed citizenry expressing its will. I have provided extra copies of this letter, in the event that you wish to distribute them to the City Council or the press. In the past, the press has expressed an interest in the opinion study. Yours truly, R. Denis Richter Director-Public Relations RDRrbh