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Home My WebLink About1975-10-07; City Council; 3481; Plaza Camino Real Expansion: EIR Certification. .. ,. -.-- "h CITY OF CARLSBAD I AGENDA BILL NO. s%g/ DATE : October. -7 7, 1975 PLANNING DEPARTMENT: ..... Initial : Dept . Hd C, Mgr. Subject: REQUEST FOR CERTIFICATION OF EIR-295, EXPANSION OF PLAZA CAMINO REAL SHOPPING CENTER. Statement of the Matter The City Council instructed the Staff to prepare an Environmental Impact Report (EIR-295) in May, for the proposed Plaza- Camino Real Shopping Center Expansion. The Council was of the opinion that the proposed expansion was significant and could be of such controversy to necessitate the preparation of an EIR. - The Planning Commission wn August 13th and August 27th held duly noticed Public hearings on the Final EIR.. Several interested parties gave testimony regarding the impacts, i.e. , Traffic/circulation, pedestrian traffic in the area of the theatres, grading, siltation and the impacts of the project on the Buena Vista Lagoon and the properties around the lagoon. The Staff and Planning Commission responded'to all testimmy and incorporated the information as required by the Carlsbad Environmental Protection Ordinance of 1972. .After two hearings, the Planning Commission recommends to the City Coyncil certification of EIR-295 for reasons out1 ined in Planning Commission Resol ut ion 1 1 80. . Exhibits: Final EIR-295, Exhibit 'E' Plahning Commission Resolution 1180 Mjnutes of Planning Commission of September 10, 1975 Memo from City Manager dated October 1, 1975- Recommendation: It is recommended that EIR-295 be certified for reasons contained in Planning Commission Resolution 1180. If the City Council concurs with the Planning Commission's recommendation, a motion announcing its intent to certify EIR-295 and a concurrent motion to incorporate all testimony given at the Council Public Hearing as part of the comments on the FINAL EIR-295 should be made. (See Page 2 fo'r Council action). - I Counci 1 action 10-7-75 The staff was instructed to proceed with negotiations on the basis of $1,500,000 maxim8m participation and to return with a Memorandum of Understa,ding for Council consideration. Further, a motion was made that the recommendation of the Planning Commission be accepted and the EIR be certified, including all testimony given at the Public Hearing. -2- 5 CITY OF CARLSB 0 F3NAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT FOR THE PLAZA CAMINQ REAL EXPANSION EIR -295 EXHIBIT E SEPTEMBER 3,1975 PLANNING COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION - 7s TO THE CITY COUNCIL &ZE~F/PH~OJ - * REs~LUnod &/& CERTIFIED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD ON /o- V-75 CITY CF CARLSSAD PLANN I NS DEPARTMENT STAFF RECOMMENDATION SUBJECT: EIR-295 PLAZA CAMINO REAL EXPANSION APPLICANT: MAY STORE SHOPPING CENTER, INC. 10738 WEST PIC0 BOULEVARD, SUITE 1 LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 90064 FINDINGS: 1. The EIR meets all requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act and the Carlsbad Environmental Protection Ordinancs. 2. All necessary notification and review has taken place. 3. The EIR adequately discusses anticipated impacts of the project, project alternatives, and mitigation measures to lessen the - - impacts. R ECOMM EMDAT I ON : - It is recommended that the Final EIR-295, as contained in thjs document be Certified for the reasons noted above. Any further comments received as part of the public hearing process shall also be included in the Final Environmental Impact Report. - SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED MITIGATION MEASURES: - 1. In order to avoid adverse settlement, the project area underlain by soft compressible soils should either be surcharged or the building constructed on pilings. Further detailed soil investigations shall be conducted on the project site, in order to identify and mitigate slope stability probiems. Rip rap, concrete drainage and extensive slope plantings can reduce problems of erosion and siltation along north and west embankment slopes. In order to reduce siltation of the lagoon, the project should be constructed during the dry season, slopes should be protected prior to construction, and si1 t basins arid extensive landscaping should be installed. 2. 3. 4. 5. In order to decrease impacts on the water quality of the Buena Vista Lagoon, the parking lot drainage system should be so designed so that surface water run-off will be contained in catchment and settling basins. The basins should be cleaned and maintained at regularly scheduled intervals, especially during the rainy season. - I -2- 6. A rigid program of street and parking lot cleanup can tamination of the Ouena Vista Lagoon. 7. Buildings should be designed to withstand any seismic revealed by the soils investigation for the project. 8. The effects of intrusive noise can be controlled by 1 struction to normal daytime working hours. reduce con- s ha ki ng problems miting con- 9. The landscaping in the Plaza Camino Real parking lot hould be increased to soften the overall visua! impact of the Plaza Camino Real. 10. Deterrents to crime, such as an adequate lighting of the parking lot and maximization of "defensible space", should be incorporated into the project design. 11. In order to meet minimum fire flow requirements, a looped water system providing a minimum of 6500 GPM should be iwtalled. All new buildings and/or structures should be so designed so as not to increase the existing fire flow requirements of 6500 GPM. 12. Monroe Street and Elm Avenue should be extended as soon as feasible in order to decrease response tima of any public safety service. 13. A professional fire protection engineering consultant should be 14. The additional bonding capacity which the City will gain from the pro- retained to aid in project design. posed expansion should be used to initiate revitalization of the Central Bus i ness Di s tr i c t . 15. The City should study md implement possibly a shuttle bus service between the Plaza and the Central Business District. 16. The City shall take appropriate measures to improve pedestrian safety on Marron Road in conjunction with project planning aild approval. 17. The City shall study the need for implementing a means for improving vehicular access between the parking lot and Marron Road, giving special emphasis to improving traffic safety and parking lot efficiency. 18. Jefferson Street should be realigned so that it "T's'~ into Marron Road so that circulation will be improved aitd duck safety problems at the duck landing would be corrected. - - 19. As a part of project design and approval, the following possibilities for reducing heating and cooling costs and energy consumption should be s tudi ed : a) b) -_ Design of the structure to take full advantage of the summer cooling breezes and winter sun; Use of a computerized temperature monitoring system to switch off blower motors when they are not needed. -3- 20. Use of low-water volume toilet fixtures should be considwed as a part of project design. 21. Solid waste disposal systems should be made more efficient. Two alternatives for this are the installation of centralized trash bins, or the installation of a conveyer bel t-packer system. 22. Project builders, architects and tenants should be encouraged to seek appliances, lighting and space heating methods which reduce internal load factors. 33, A transit system which could complement the existing Oceanside Transit System bus service should be considered in conjunction with project planning and approval. 24. An employee bus system should be studied and implemented, if possible, in conjunction with project planning and approval. 25. A Specific Plan, as outlined by State law, should be required for the project to ensure compliance with guide lines set in the General Plan for regional shopping centers, arterial collectors, etc. The Specific Plan, if required, would permit satisfactory and effective mitigation measures of noted and identified impacts, \ TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION - I REVIEW DOCUMENTS PAGE - LEGAL REQUIREMENTS FOR EIR REVIEW - - - - - - - - i LIST OF AGENCIES CONSULTED - - - - - - - - - - - ii LETTERS RECEIVED IN RESPONSE TO DRAFT EIR - - - iii I1 DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT - SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS PREPARED BY CITY STAFF - - - xx x PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORRATION PREPARED BY WESTEC SERVICES - - - - - - - - - .. - - - - I INTRODUCTION AND CERTIFICATION 1 I1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION 5 I11 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING 15 IV ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 55 V ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 101 VI MEASURES TO MITIGATE ADVERSE EFFECTS 107 VI1 121 A L T E R NP,T I V E S VI11 TOPICAL ISSUES 125 c A. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LOCAL SHORT- TERM USE OF MAN'S ENVIRONMENT AND THE MAINTENANCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF LONG-TERM PRODUCTIVITY 125 B. ANY IRREVERSIBLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES WHICH WOULD BE INVOLVED IN THE PROPOSED ACTION SHOULD IT BE IMPLEMENTED 126 C. THE GROWTH-INDUCING IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY UPON THE NE,IGHBORHOOD AND/CZ T!IE COMMUNITY 127 SECTION -- D. THE ROUNDARIES OF THE AREA WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY IX REFERENCES Append i c e s A , BIOLOGICAL INVENTORY B ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD SEARCH C FINANCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS ' D TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS E SLOPE EROSION CONTROL AND LANDSCAPING FOR FIRE PROTECTION F LETTER FROM DOWNTOWN MERCHANT'S ASSOCIATION G CORRESPONDENCE PAGE 129 133 A-1 B-1 c- 1 D- 1 LEGAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT REVIEW Prepared by the City of Carlsbad Planning Staff September 2, 1975 State law and the Carlsbad Envlronmental Protection Ordinance (Ordinance No. 1150) require that when the Planning Director finds that a pro.ject may result in significant adverse environmental effects, the City must require preparation of an Environmental Impact Report. The City Council directed Staff, on May 6, 1975, to select a consultant to prepare pre; tminary environmental information for the Plaza Camino Real Expansion. City Staff selected Westcc Services, Inc. to prepare the preliminary information. The applicant assumed financial responsibility for the consultant's services. The Consu?tant worked closely with City Staff over a period of one and one-half months in preparing the preliminary information. City Staff reviewed several drafts of the preliminary informatfon and recommended additions or corrections as necessary. On July 9, 1975, Gdcopies of the preliminary environmental inform- ation and an analysis and summary prepared by City Staff were sub- mitted to r2viewing agencies. TDgether these docurvents are known as the draft Environmental Impact Report. A notice of coixpletion of the draft Environmental Impact Report was posted in City Hall on July 9, 1975 and published in the Carlsbad Journal on July 17, 1975. The notice was also published foratewide distribution by the Secretary of Resources in the July 28, 1975 issue of the EIR Mo n i tor. A Staff report responding to all comments received by reviewing agencies was completed and noticed for public hearing before the Planning Commission meeting of AGgust 27, 1975, in the Carlsbad Journal on August 14, 1975. State law and the City's Environmental Protection Ordinance require that the final EIR contain the following: 1) The draft EIR; 2) A list of persons and agencies consulted; 3) Comments recieved from all reviewers, either in summary or verbatim; 4) The Planning Director's response to all issues raised by reviewers. 5) Testimony of all persons a'ttending the public hearing, either verbatim or in summary. These documents are contained w!thin this Final Erivironmental Impact Report for the Plaza Camino Real Expansion (EIR-295). I I. EIR #23 - PLAZA Cf\TDTKEKTt:XPnIiSITT - LPst of Revi'ew Person's and Agencies Preliminary EIX's Nailed 7-11~75 *' Director of Community Services Agency, Environmental Analysis, County of San Diego Comprehensive Planning Organization Department' of Public Health San Diego' County Air Pollution Control District D:?artment of Fish and Game - San Diego and Long Beach offices *- San Diego County Sanitation and Flood Control San Diego Coast Regional Commission San Diego Water Qual-ity Control Doard Dr. Pieta Mud'ie, Scr'ipps Institute of Oceanography Archaeological Fellowship,. San Diego State, University Dr. Robert Crawford, Carlsbad Unified School District City of Vista Plcnning Department City, of Oceans-ide Planning Departsent Carl sbad CGmnuni ty Cause Carlsbad Parking Authority (copies to individual members) Public Works AdministratorlCity Engineer City Atto.rney Fire Chief Car1sf)ad Pub1 ic Library (? copies for pub1 ic review) ' Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce (2 copies) DH/9c 7/24/75 LETTERS RECEIVED IN RESPONSE TO DRAFT EIR-295 REVIEWER SUBJECT James Federhart AMV, Transportation & Planning Consultants Traffic Robert D. Montgomery California Department of Fish and Game Erosion, siltation, water quality Gerard Anear Fire Chief for City of Carlsbad Fir2 protection Senior Engineering Aide Utilities Dept., City of Carlsbad Water requirements Utilities Superintendent Utilities Dept., City of Carlsbad k’a tcr requirements L B. V. Elkins, Director San Diego County Dept. of Sanitation and Flood Control Flood Plain Norm E. Schell San Diego Cijunty Eept. of Public He3!th Nc comment Tim Flanagan Carlsbad City Engineer Water, economics, traffic Ladine H. Delaney California Regional Water Quality Control Board No comment Richard J. Sommerville San Diego County Air Pollution Control Officer Air Quality -iii- ALAN M. VOORISCES A & AS5OClATES. 1NC. TZAXSPORTATiON AND PLAPiNING CONSULTANTS Sandy Gaffney Westec Services, Inc. 17632 Irvine Boulevard Tustin, California 92680 10 July 1975 AMV XEF: 465.071 RE: Plaza Camino Real Expansion Traffic Analysis Addendu.m Dear Sandy: The following are our responses: 1. report refers to the traffic during the 4:30 to 5:30 PM street ped< hour. It is not intended that this is the shopping center peak hour which usual.ly is earlier or later than this. All references to P.M. peak hour traffic as addressed in the AhW 2. Street, include about 150 peak hour vehicles to and from Plaza Camino Real - the rest are to other local land uses. assume that Elm Avenue is completed to El Camino Real - if it is not- more trzffic of all kinds - including to and from Plaza Camino Real will use the Monroe - Marron route. Appendix D, Page 9. The volumes shov7.t.n on Figure 4 on Monroe These fiqures of course 3. Appendix D. Discussion needed on traffic signal. The volumes shown on Figure 4 indicate a positive need for traffic siqnals ir, l9SO at Marron and Monroe and at Marron and Jefferson based OR all common warrants. The need for signals here prior to 19S0 depends on how fast the shopping center develops towards its future 31,000 daily trips and how much of the street network is complete. instance, the shopping center, Marron Road, and Monroe Street are all complete, but Elm is not completed to El Camino Real, then these other routes will have more traffic between the central Carlsbad area, Route 78, and the shopping center, and would require signals earlier than 1980. 4. Appendix D. Realignment of Main Entrance etc. The volumes shown on Figure 4 reflect a reconstructed Main Entrance to Plaza Camino Ked as proposed in the HaaTen Development for the Carls'oad Shoppinq Center. As can be seen on Figure 4, 100 northbound left turns are estimated into Plaza Camino Real at this new entrance If, for -\ 0 I Westec Services, Inc.. 10 July 1973 465.071 Page 2 c ’ while none can make this move at the present time. 5. We feel that under the assumptions made to derive Figure 4, our statement is basically correct. As mentioned above however, if the other streets and the centers are complete, and Elm is not, ther, more traffic will use Monroe to Marron, the freeway, and the shopp- ing centers, and thus more turning movements at Elm and Monroe will result. Still under these conditions, only an estimated 12% of the shopping center traffic would be using this Monroe-Marron roilte (3,700 ADT) with a larger volume being non-shopping center traffic. Appendix D. Also the impact on Elm and Monroe is understated. I hope the above clarifies the comments posed by City staff. Very truly yours, c JWF: jz Regional Manager v \ -V- STATE OF CALIFORNIA-RESOURCES AGENCY RONALD REAGAN, Governor - DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME 350 Golden Shore Long Beach, California - (213) 435-774.1 Mr. Donald A. Agatep, Planning Director City of Carlsbad Planning Department 1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California 92008 Dear Hr, Agatep: We have received the draft Environmental kcpact Report for the proposed Plaza Camino Real- Expansion and find it to be adequate in its discussion of fish and wildlife resources located at the project site as well as project impacts to those resources. However, the EX3 is inadequate in its discussicn of mitigation measures ciesimed to offset such project impacts as siltation and pollution of Buena Vista Lagoon, Our specific concerns are: 1. 2, Erosion/Siltation - Pages 108-109 - this section proposes measures tha,t. would only reduce erosion and siltation, Because of the fragile nature of the ecosystem within Buena Vista Lagoon, any siltation from this or amy other project within the Buena Vista Creek watershed mast be prevented, construction only during the dry season of the year, by protection of enbankment slopes prior to construction activity, by installation and maintenance of silt catchment bashs and by extensive landscaping using low lying shrubs beneficial to wildlife, This objective could be accomplished by doing Water Quality - Pages 110-112 - this section fails to propose adequate neasures for preventing the entrance of such urban pollutants as hydrocarbons, rubber and metal particles into - Buena Vista Lagoon, achieving this objactive would be the washing of the parking lot area. in early fall prior to the first rain (first week of October) and collecting all runoff in a suitable catchment and settling basin. maintained throughout the rainy season. then be disposed of in such a inanner 8s to pi-event entry into Suena Vista Lagoon. Me believe an adequate method for This basixl could then be cleaned and Pollutants could -vi- Wr, Donnld A. Agatep - As you can see, our major concern relative to this project is the protection of the valuable fish and wildlife resources of Buena Vista Lagoono We look forward to w~rking with you and your staff during the planning and bplenienting phases of this project and others in the future as rLegards preservation of fish and tdldlifa re source so - Thank you for the opy>ort+unity to review this project proposal, Regional ib..na Region 5 MEMORANDI!M c TO: PLANNING DIRECTOR DATE: August 7, 1975 FROM: GIRfiRi) W. AMEAR, CHIEF - FIRE DEPARTMENT SUBJECT: Comments on the EIR for the Plaza Camino Real Expansion It is the Fire Department's recommendation that this plan be engineered for fire protection by a professionally fire protection oriented engin- eering firm, such as Gage-Babcock, Sierra, etc., for maximum fire protection. rises" laying on their side. They pose monumental problems to the best and largest manned and equipped departments should any kind of an emergency occcr. The report mentions the building is sprinklered and infers that this will take care of any and all problems. could cause a major panic inside the building. There is no exterior light available, as there are practically no windows in the entire complex. Nearly all plastics release tremendous quantities of sinoke in a very short time, and tremendous amounts are used in modern building construction and merchandise, and they continue to emit smoke even though the fire may be controlled by the sprinklers. Nor does a sprinkler system control even a minor earthquake, that again may "knock out" the lighting system. The fire service looks upon buildings of this type as "high- Just a simple power failure Again you have a panic situation. We also recommend the addition be designed in such a way that it does not increase the already extremely heavy fire flow of 6500 gallons per minute requirssl by tk cxistfiig facility. given to supplying this complex with another water line frcm the west, possibly an extension coming down Monroe Street. SEi-jGitS consideratioti should be As soon as possible Elm Avenue should be extended to Monroe and Monroe Street extended to Marron Avenue. faster access to the west end of the center for fire and emergency ambulance responses. This will give the Fire Department Fire protection is now and will be for some time in the future, inadequate for this complex. The fire protection recommended by the IS0 (Insurance Service Office, who establish the recommended insurance rates) directly to the fire flow requiremsnts. For a fire ~ flow -----_o_^ld.- of 6500 gallons the first alarm ----.-. response .__"."1~ should - -" .ccr~.s.is.t~..a.f..2..~~~~ne_.and,.l.,~_ladder._~co~~ni~~~ Lm-within 2 ,mi_Tes. For greater alarms there should be a maximum of 6 engine compan'es within 4 miles and 2 ladder companies within 2% miles, all manned with 6 men each. is related '# y- k" 1 We currently respond with one engine company with a total of 6 men. Hope- fully before the addition to the center is built we will have Station #3 in operation and manned by 3 men. aid pact in force with Oceanside whereby .they will respond with one engine company with a minimum of 3 men. a first alarm, the minimum recommended for the smallest structure fire. We also hope to have an automatic mutual This will give us a total of 72 men cn Wh-ile we can call on many outside companies for mutual aid, we can cnly draw on a total of 4 more engine compan-ies to this site that are available -vi i i- Memo/Planning Director -2- 8-7-75 and within 15 miles of the location. close enough to be effective.) This would get us an additional 12 more men at the scene but it would take about 20 minutes for them to arrive. This can not be considered adequate protection. It is nearly 50% de- ficient in manpower for the number of companies and the response time is far too long. (There are no ladder companies The statement that an addition of this size will: additional manpower or equipment to provide adequate fire protection, with the exception of approximately two weeks per year for inspection time" is a little ridiculous. "However, the addition of a major public building of this magcitude including one area of three-level construction, wi 11 intensify any current needs for additional inanpower and faci 1 i ties .I' "not require specific The next line in the report does state: Despite the fact that the building is sprinklered, we have had numerous alarms there. Most of them are caused by huinan error, testing or working on the system and not letting us know, etc. we have had 3 alarms where trash fires were deliberately set in rest rooms, causing the sprinkler systems to activate. up our entire crew from Station #1 for several hours and off-duty men were recalled to man the station. This severely limits our ability to handle any additional alarms. We have had numerous emergency ambulance calls to this location. However, recently In each case it tied Reading a little further- in the EIR (pages 52-53) it states the shopping center only generates 20% of the total requirement for fire protection and the expansion will represent an increase of approximately 40% increase in total retail activity, etc., or "approximately a 5% increase of the overall budget. --- or $24,000 annually."(??) We could rationalize the problem another way and say according to the maximum fire flow of 3500 gpm required in central Carlsbad, we should have a maximum response for a greater alarm fire consisting of 3 engine and 1 ladder companies. For the shopping center with its 6500 gpm fire flow, the total should be 6 engine and 2 ladder companies, all with 6 men crews. Thus directly a.ttributable tc the shopping center, we are short 3 engine companies and one ladder company. between the ex-i sting center and the proposed addition, we can say each - portion of the center should share half the shortage, or two companies apiece. I Each company (consisting of 18 men to keep 6 on duty around the clock) will cost over $250,000 per year or an approximate total of $500,000 for two collipanies with optimum manning. If we split this shortase - - . - In Summary: The project should be engineered for maximum fire protection by a professional fire protection engineering firm. It should be so designed as to not increase the existing required fire flow of 6500 gallons. -ix- Memo/Planning Director -3- ' 8-7-75 A determination should be made as to whether or not there should he an additional supply of water to the project from the west. (An extension of the main off the north end of Monroe? ) Elm Avenue should be extended to Monroe, and Nonroe extended north to Marron Road for better police, fire and rescue ambulance response. (Arid probably better traffic circulation). For some time the fire department will not be able to adequately protect this facility as per IS0 recommended standards. - Girard W. Anear &' -X- June 18, 1975 HEMORAN DUM TO: Uti1 i tSes/Maintenance Director FROM: Sr. Engineerlng Aide Via Uti1 .I ties Superfnkendent SUBJECT: Camino Plaza Shopping Center proposed expansion Attached is a map showing the area under consideration with the Loop System and Pipe sizes required to meet the fire flow demand per A. Wolenchuk. The sources are: 2000 GPM from 10" line on El Camino Real 2800 GPM from 12" line dfrect from Elm Reservoir on hrrm Road 2800 G?M from 72" line on Monroe 2000 GPM from 10" on Jefferson Sr\ Engfneering Aide RP:mdb -Xi - June 12, 1975 - MEMORAKDUM - TO: Ulilities/Maintenance Director FROM : SUB3 ECT : . Utili ties Superintendent Camino PI aza Shopping Center proposed expansion -- .. - I talked to Alex Wolenchuck, Fire ha-shall, about the additional fire flow requirements and he said they will need 6500 GPM at this location. Z estimated we could have better than 7000 GPM. - The shopping center will have to run 12'' or 14" and possibly 10" pipe for water. Marron Road would be 12" or 74" pipe; north side of shopping center would be 10" or 12" pipe with cross connection in between; Monroe Road would be 12".and Jefferson Street would be 10" or 12". culations are only based on the information received so far. - These cal- - BN : pag cc: Alex Wolenchuck - -xii- _. . -. "The organic gases, when combined with sufficient sun1 ight, react with oxides of nitrogen to form photochemical oxidants which can cause eye irritation and aggravate respiratory disease. Particulate matter can reduce visibility, and in high concentrations cause respiratory disease. monoxide is a poisonous gas which can impair judgement, lengthen reaction time and, in excessive concentrations, cause death. Sulfur diozide is odorous ("rotten eggs") and can contribute to respiratory disease. produces atmospheric discoloration and adds to the oxidant probl ern. Carbon Nitrogen dioxide "The Air Pollution Control District has identified two sign- ificant air pollution problems in the San Diego Air Basin: photochemical oxidants and particulates. tzderal oxidant standards were exceeded during 22 days in 1973 at the Oceanside monitoring stations. dramatically reduced from 1972 to 1980 due to increased emissions controls, it is doubtful that the Federal standards will be ac hi eved . " - A1 though oxidant levels are being -xxi i i (a)- 8) Traffic Flow Map: At the August 27, Commission expressed concern that not paid to overall traffic problems. that a traffic flow map be Drovided. In 975 hearing, the Planning enough attention had been particular, it was requested The traffic flow maps for existing and projected' 1980' peak flow levels are attached. complete traffic analysis of the project, including public contained in Appendix D of the Draft Environmental Impact Report. A ransportation systems, was prepared by Alan M. Voorhees and / Associates, Transportation and Planning Consultants, and is d-7 - It was the consultant's considered opinion that the existing and proposed street systems in the vicinity of the project are adequate to handle projected peak traffic loads, providing that - - a number of adjustments are made, including: a. Realignment of Jefferson Street so that it "T's" into Marron Road. b. Correction of access problems between the Plaza parking lot and Marron Road. c, Redesign of the intersection which will be jointly shared by the Plaza Camino Real and Carlsbad Shopping Center which is soon to be constructed on the east side of El Camino Real. It should be noted that with the extension of Marron Road, traffic levels at the intersection of El Camino Real at Route 78 will be lower after the expansion than they are presently. 9) Surcharge: The project engineer has indicated that it may be necessary to place 150,000 cubic yards of surcharge for approximately 14-18 months on the portion of the site where the Sears store is to be located (See attached map). The surcharge material (which is to be obtained on-site) would be used to hasten settlement and force moisture out of the soft, compressible soil which underlies the building site. This activity may result in several adverse impacts. A primary impact would be the increased risk of sedimentation of the lagoon becaLise of exposure of the soils to accelerated erosion. This can be mitigated by the restriction of grading to the dry season and the immediate hydro-seeding with native grasses, of the surcharge and exposed soils. The surcharge may also result in an adverse aesthetic impact. This may be lessened by the hydro-seeding and contouring of the surcharge. Since the project design, planning and City processing will not be completed for some time, the surcharge operation cculd be accomplished concurrently, with little or no delay to the project . As an alternative to the 14-18 month delay, however, the project could be built on pilings. the cost differential between placing the surcharge or con- structing the building on pilings. that the differential will be small. The applicant is currently studying At this point, it appears Providing that the above mentioned mitigations are employed, either a1 ternative would be acceptable. to select an alternative can best be determined when the cost differential study and soil studies are complete. The technical decision -xxv- c .- . - CITY 0 I=' .. .. I 'PLANNING COMMISSION. MEETING August-27, 1975 '.,..* , Page 4. .- 1 - _- - __ - - -- - 7. Cast! N.@R-295 - May Company Stores' (etc.) Planning Director Don Agat'ep gave staff presentation, -explained graphics and Staff's recommendation of approval. Mr. Agatep explained this was a quitk lengthy Report, prepared initially by Westec, Inc. -and changed or added to as necessary by the various departments of the City. Sandra Gaffey, Project Manager, Westec, Inc., was present in the audience. - Mr. Agatep outlined the major considerations of the Envlrcnmental Impact Report. One of the consideratio is the Central Business District; however, the - enlargement of Plaza Camino Real should not affect the sales of these stores which are mosily specialty stores. The report includes mitigating measures whi . . should be taken for drainage, siltatio'n, pedestrian - safety, traffic circulation, etc. An addition aspect of the report is the saving of enargy by suggesting the stores could be constructed in such - a way to make use of natural breezes instead of usin air conditioning. Comments from various agencies including Air Quality Control Board, Department - of F4sh dnd'Game, as well as comments from various . City staff departments have been incorporated. A . memorandum to the Commission this date mentioned - .a surcharge which may become necessary. If this is not accomplished, the stores may 'have to be built on pilings. This memo concerning-. the surcharge and pedestrians should be added to the Report as - Exhibit D. John Mamaux, 1393 Basswood Drive, representing - May Company Stores, stated he agreed with all the conditions or mitigating measures pointed out in the report. Mr. Mam9ux also stated that the time - necessary for the surcharge is not wasted time; inasmuch as soil fro'm the road will be used to . start the surcharge. S Henry Thompson, 330 Chestnut Avenue, acked'what is ,the Ci.ty's responsibility to prepare an Environrnenta Impact Report.' Planning Director Don Agatep explain -that. i.f there is's project within the City 'considere I .to be significant, the .City Council can instruct staff to prepare a report. Mr. 'Thompson then asked about various 1ett.ers and whether they were in the report; also, Sf the preliminary report was -prepared for the, developer, not the City. Mr. Thomp attempted to point out-that this report is presented as an.independent report, when;in fact, approxi- -mately six days from the receipt cf the report, the City purported to have analyzed this report, includi the different agencies -and department comments.. In - answer to Commissioner Watson's questioning regar.dip report content,' Mr. Thompson observed there was nothing objectionable in the document.. . ..... ..... .... .... ... .. .. *- 0- -. Pub1 ic Hear.ing was closed. Tn response to qu.estions from the Commissioners', Mr. kgatep explained that a portion of this report - .I's dated September, 1974 and-thit this was when the . initial economic s.nalysl:s was prepared by the City on modi'fi6d or expanded as t.he project develops. The -use of the "Q" Zone on the property or a sp.ecific plan for the development was also discussed.'. It was fe.lt that this report was inadequate and should -be expanded; the expanstion to include vehicular traffic from El Cami.no Real, Highway 78, Marron Road and Jefferson Street, and additional comments on -Sl-ltati.on should be included. .. .- 8 - this expansion. Bas,ically, the.report ca'n' be The motion was made to return this report to staff - to consolidate Exhibits 13 through D and also expacd on circulation, pedestrian safety, si1 tation and information received froin the Dcpartnicnt of F'ish - and Game and have a more complete package to the planning Commission on September 10, 1975. The motion was amended to have these minutes included A second motion was made to reopen the public . hearing . The Commissidners would also like to see as'a furthct exhibit a general area 'ma:, fcr traffic flow use. . as Exhibit E. - - .. .. - .. Motion Ryes Ab s c 17 1; Mo t. i o n Ayes Absent X X X x X x X X X X SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.- EIR-295 Prepared by the City of Carlsbad Planning Staff July 9, 1975 I. Project Description: Expansion of the Plaza Camino Real Shopping Mall by the addition of 449,881 sq. ft. of gross leasable floor area. The expanded Plaza will be anchored by a Sears Store, Broadway Store and a two-level mall. The project will also involve the extension of Marron Road and expansion of parking facilities. 11. Environmental Setting: The project is in a predominately man-made setting. Site is covered with artificial fill to an average depth of 20 feet. Vegetation and animal populations are limited because of disruption caused by the fill. Although previously within the Buena Vista Creek floodplain, the fill has placed the site 6 ft. above the projected standard flood height. Project site will be served by three main roadways: El Camino Real, Highway 78 and Marron Road. 111. Environmental Impacts of the Project and Mitigation Measures: Impacts Significance Geology and Soils Hydro1 ogy C1 imate Air Quality Biological Environment Archaeology/Historic Resources Pol ice Fire Can be mitigated with adequate engineering measures. Degradation of water quality can be mitigated by siltation controls and regular street cleaning. Negl igi bl e. Will impact air quality by gener- ating 60,732 vehicle miles per day. Mitigation includes provi- sions for two additional bus routes. Minor impacts because of existing disturbance of site. Measures will be taken to reduce degradation of lagoon from contaminants. Negl i gi bl e. Incremental increase in demand for police services. Fire resistant project design can help mitigate impacts on fire services. Health Care Education Natural Gas El ectri cj ty .. Solid Waste Telephone Wa,t er Sewer Population Growth and Housing Economics .. .. Impact on Central Business District Impact on Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Market Areas . Traffic/Transportation and Circulation Negl ig; bl e Project will result in moderate generation .of school-aged children, distributed throughout North County Minor Although San Diego Gas & Electric Company is optimistic about meeting service demand, .availability is contingent on adequate fuel suppl 1'es Can be mitigated by use of bin service or conveyor belt system , Negl igi bl e Mi nor Mi nor 'Project will generate approximately 900 jobs, which roughly translates into 540 new house- holds, over a three-year period. anticipated that less than half of these families will reside in Carlsbad It is .The. effect.on Carlsbad would be beneficial: surplus revenues from sales and property taxes are expected to exceed four million dollars over twenty years. No financial risk would be assumed by the City The CBD cannot effectively compete with the retail uses at the Plaza Camino Real. The Plaza will draw trade from the CBD, but this can be mitigated by using the Parking Authority as bonding agency to fund CBD projects Adverse impact on retail sales in Oceanside and Vista (primary market) secondary and tertiary markets will be impacted to a 1 esser degree Project will generate 13,496 vehicle round- trips daily. Two additional bus routes will be added (making a total of six). The existing Plaza has unrestricted access from the parking lot onto Marron Road. This condition is tolerable for the time bpitlg, but at such tiriic that Marron Road is extended, a continuous curb with 1 imi ted access contrul should be installed ,/ Noise Aesthetics Energy IQ. . Alternatives: No Project V. VI. VI1 * A1 ternate Location A1 ternate Design Alternate Land Use A1 ternate Commercial A1 location .. Project will cause temporary noise during construction. Traffic noisc near the . project may reach levels which are un- suitable for noise sensitive areas (such as residences) Subjective judgment. Project will compl inient existing structures Project is expected to result in following annual consumption rates: Electricity: 8.8 million KWH Natural Gas.: 5.4 million cu/ft Gasol i ne : 1.7 millicn gallons Impacts associated with development would be avoided. be generated No revenue or employment would Primary nucleus of reta$l activity would be lost. Few other locations exist near two major roadways It is likely that refinements to the des-ign will occur as part of planning process Residential and industria.1 use would be generally incompatible with existing use. Recreational use is possible, but would . require extensive improvements to site. This 'alternative would let major stores locate at the Plaza Camino Real, while allowing small stores to stay in the CBD, and community commercial areas. The impacts of this need to be further evaluated Relationship Between Short-term Use and Long-Term Productivity: term effects of construction can be largely mitigated. Long-term effects are both adverse and beneficial in nature. biological and human environment wi 11 be adversely impacted, as discussed in Section 111. The exparision will be beneficial in economic terms. Short Certain aspects of the physical, Irreversible Environmental Changes: The project commits the property to long-term cor,mcrcial use. capital will be irretrievably committed. On a regional scale, surrounding communities will be adversely impacted by the loss of retaiJ saJes. Growth Induccmcnt: increase dcrna;;af;crr goods and services which will attract addi tiondl population. Suppl ies , resources, manpower, energy and Project will directly induce 900 jobs and may indirectly -r-- -xXx i i - VIII. Boundaries Affected by the -II ProJecf:: Most impacts on the physical and biological environment wi 11 tie localized to the project site and surroundirig properties. Impacts on air quality, economics and growth inducement will be regional. Impacts on services wi 11 have Ci ty-wide imp1 ications. c -xxxi.i i - ' LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Tab 1 es 2-1 3- 1 3- 2 3- 3 3- 4 3- 5 4-1 4-2 4- 3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4- 8 Figures 2-1 2-2 2-3 Proposed Land Uses of the Expanded Plaza Meteorologic Data Air Quality Data Summary Oceanside Air Monitoring Station 1973 Number of Calendar Days on Which the Maximum Hourly Average Equalled or Ex- ceeded Chosen Concentration at Oceanside Air Monitoring Station Average Daily (2-way) Traffic Location of Ambient Noise Measurements (Legend) Pollutant Emissions from Mobile Sources Comparison of Project Emission Rates with County-wide Emission Rates Pollutant Emissions from Stationary Sources Percentage Comparison of 411 Project Emissions to All County-wide Emissions Anticipated Traffic Volumes Noise Produced at the Construction Site Design Noise Level/Land Use Relationships Energy Consumption Rates (Leq) Topographic Map Vicinity Map Regional Map Page 9 28 29 30 46 49 64 65 65 66 86 88 91 98 , iii Figures 2-4 Plot Plan 3- 1 Aerial Photo Page 11 16 3- 2 Inferred extent of soft, compressible soils as determined by LeRoy Crandall and Associates (1967) and Wilson (1972). 18 3- 3 Monthly temperatures and precipitation at Oceanside (19-year record). 24 3- 4 Annual and diurnal variation of average surface wind speed at the Camp Pendleton Air Facility (8 miles north of the project site). 26 3- 5 3- 6 3- 7 3- 8 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 6-1 Annual and diurnal variation of the per- cent frequency of cloudy skies (> 8/10 sky cover) at Lindbergh Field, San Diego (31 . miles .> SSE of the project site). 27 Archaeological survey area and adjacent recorded sites (from San Luis Rey 7.5' USGS Topographic Map). 35 Location of Ambient Noise Measurements 48 Ground Transportation Noise Contours 51 Modified Mercalli Scale of Intensities 60 Monthly mixing depth and average wind speed through mixed layer at Montgomery Field. 68 Annual and diurnal variation of the percent frequency of calm wind condition at Camp Pendleton Air Facility (about 8 miles north of the project site). 69 Annual and diurnal variation of the percent frequency of calm wind conditions at North Island Naval Air Station (about 33 miles SSE of the project site). 70 Photographs of the Plaza Camino Real 93 Inside Photographs of the Plaza Camino Real 95 Proposed Realignment of Jefferson Street 116 II I iv r SECTION I INTRODUCTION AND CERTIFICATION The May Company is proposing to expand the facilities of Plaza Camino Real, a regional shopping facility located in the City of Carlsbad, California. This expansion, covering approx- imately 33 acres of land, will nearly double the available retail shopping area (existing square footage: 571,592; proposed additional square footage: 449,881). The development site, portions of which are currently in use as parking area, is located immedi- ately to the west of the existing Plaza Camino Real and north of Marron Road. This environmental impact report is being submitted in accordance with the guidelines established by the City of Carlsbad to implement the California Environmental Quality Act (Contents 1 of Environmental Impact Reports), as well as the State of California Guidelines for Implementation of the California 2 Environmental Quality A.ct of 1970, with recent amendments. This report is addressed specifically to the proposed expansion and the anticipated environmental impacts (both local and regional, short- term and long- term) associated with its completion. It does not address neighboring properties or other proposed developments in the immediate area except where related impacts are felt to warrant discussion. The objective of this report is to provide a complete base of information concerning the en-fironmental impacts of the proposed project. I Irr th;, regard, a comprehensive assessment of the localized 1 impacts of the project is provided. The regional impacts are, however, dependent on factors other than those associated solely with the proposed project (e.g. transportation networks and regional land use decisions). Consequently, for those environ- mental impacts which are regional in scope, the data provided in this report must be applied to on-going and planned studies addressing the environment of the region. Persons reviewing this document should keep in mind the fact that the material provided herein is, under State law, in- formational in nature. It is intended to enable appropriate public agencies to evaluate any environmental effects, measures to reduce the magnitude of any adverse effects, and to consider alternatives to the project as proposed. The responsible public agencies remain obligated to balance possible adverse effects against other public objectives, including economic and social factors, in determining whether a project is approved. This environmental impact report is not meant to be used as an engineering document. Likewise, it does not relieve the City or the applicant of their responsibilities to insure that engineer- ing documents otherwise required for this project are prepared and submitted. Certification of Accuracy The environmental information in this report has been compiled and analyzed from the sources and individuals indicated. To the best of our knowledge and belief this information is 2 accurate and correct and reflects our best professional opinion of the direct and indirect environmental impacts associated with the proposed development. Prb j ect Principal Sandra (3-affney Principal Investigator Preparation Staff This report was prepared by WESTEC Services, Inc., of San Diego, California, for the May Store Shopping Center, Inc. The individuals contributing to this impact analysis and their areas of contribution are as follows: Principal Investigators Fay 0. Round, Jr., B.S. Engineering Sandra G. Gaffney, B.A. Social Ecology Physical Environment Frank A. Kingery, M.S. Geology Stephen B. Lacy, M.S. Biology Sandra G. Gaffney, B.A. Social Ecology William Ganus, Ph.D Hydrology Ralph Huschke, B.S. Meteorology Biological Environment Stephen B. Lacy, M.S. Biology Sandra G. Gaffney, B.A. Social Ecology Human Environment Douglas Wood, M.S. Human Ecology Sandra G. Gaffney, B.A. Social Ecology Richard L. Carrico, M.A. History; B.A. Anthropology Fay 0. Round, Jr., B.S. Engineering 3 In addition, the following outside consultant provided technical input to the report in the specific areas cited: A.M. Voorhees and Associates, Traffic Consultants 4 SECTION I1 PROJECT DE S'CR I PTI ON I" The project under consideration, proposed by May Store Shopping Center, Inc. concerns the expansion of Plaza Camino Real, bounded by Marron Road on the south, &he existing Plaza Camino Real to the east, Buena Vista Creek a short distance to the north and Jefferson ,Street a short distance on the west. precise location is indicated in Figure 2-1 (Topographic Nap). Figures 2-2 and 2-3 present the vicinal and regional relation- ships of the property to its surrounding areas. The expansion site is located in the City of Carlsbad, The The parcel of land which is proposed for development encompasses roughly 33 acres of vacant land. is found along the easternmost strip which is paved and serves as a parking area for the existing mall. The only exception Current development plans call for an additional 449,881 square feet of gross leasable area to be constructed immediately to the west of, and adjoining, the existing Plaza. Plaza Camino Real would enclose a total of 1,021,473 square feet of gross leasable area. Parking facilities would be expanded to accommodate a total of 5,061 vehicles, providing an ultimate parking ratio of 4.95 stalls per 1,000 square feet of building area. Once completed, Plaza Camino Real, which was constructed in two phases during 1969 and 1970, is a two-level, enclosed mall encompassing 571,592 square feet of space. The Plaza is anchored by May 5 6 7 8 Company and Penney.s department stores with an additional 65 individual specialty shops occupying the remaining floor area. Figure 2-4 presents the plot plan for this project. It is anticipated that the expanded portion of the Plaza will be anchored by a two-level Sears department store, a three- level Broadway department store, and a two-level mall encompassing 131,000 square feet. A summary of the proposed uses is provided in Table 2-1 below. Table 2-1 53 Proposed Land Uses of the Expanded Plaza' Proposed Use Sears Sears Auto Center Gross Leasable Area (square feet) 133,848 18,928 B r o adw ay 156,000 Broadway Auto Center 7,500 Penneys Auto Center Expansion 2,520 Mall Stores 131 085 Total Expansion ............... 449,881 The expansion parcel is currently zoned C-2 (General Commercial), a designation which conforms with the proposed use. The project is also congruent with the City's Land Use Plans and General Plan which indicate, respectively, that the subject parcel should be devoted to "Intensive Regional Retail" and 7:Le objective of the proposed expansion is to augment and strengthen the status of Plaza Camino Real as a regional commercial 53 center. It has been calculated that such an expansion would increase the center's penetration of all market areas and that 9 10 i I i i i 8 i :I: 4" 3'4 8= f-1 LJ (3 w sales would increase from an estimated $31,300,000 in 1974 to an estimated $59,480,000 within the first year of operation. Based upon projected population increases within the market area, it is anticipated that annual sales could approach $80,000,000 by 1990. Naturally, the subsidiary objectives -- which will be discussed at length in the sections to follow -- are linked directly to the considerable profits which the expanded Plaza is expected to yield. One of these is the revitalization of the Carlsbad downtown business districts. The expanded Plaza area will be designed to complement the existing mall. As such, the architectural motif, floor plans, building materials and landscaping will all be selected along the lines already established. Although no conceptual renderings are available for inclusion in this EIR, a number of photographs of the existing mall have been provided (see Figures 4-5 and 4-6, Section IV), which will serve as an approximate model of the facilities which are planned. 13 I 1 i I I I I' I I b I_ 1.: I I I I I 14 I I I I I P- I l is 1 L I i I i Ya SECTION I11 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING The proposed May Company expansion site consists of '3 approximately 33 acres in the City of Carlsbad. As shown on the aerial photograph, Figure 3-1, the site is located just south of State Highway 78 (Vista Way Freeway), north of and adjacent to Marron Road, and immediately to the west of (and overlapping) the existing Plaza Camino Real. The property is roughly rectangu- lar in shape although the southern property boundary curves broadly in symphony with Marron Road. In describing the environmental setting of the site, the physical characteristics are discussed first, followed by the biological and human interest characteristics. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS Topography The Plaza Camino Real expansion property is located on artificial fill which was placed on the flood plain and lagoonal margin of Buena Vista Creek in 1966. The fill is approximately 20 feet in thickness and sl'opes very gently to the north and northwest toward the creek. Ground elevation on the property (Figure 2-1, Topographic Map) averages approximately 30 feet above mean sea level. Some additional fill has been placed temporarily on portions of the foundation fill to serve as a surcharge load in preparation for building and roadway loads (see discussion below on Geology and Soils). This additional fill has a five to ten foot topographic 7- .- - 15 Figure 3-1 Aerial Photo relief associat,ed with it and provides the predominant topographic variation to the development site. An embankment slope of 1 1/2:1 (horizontal to vertical ratio), approximately 15 to 20 feet in height, exists along the northerly property boundary where Buena Vista Creek flows westerly. To the east, the previously developed shopping center and parking lot are on fill at nearly the same elevation as the proposed develop- ment. To the south, natural slopes of 10 to 25% and cut slopes of 1 1/2:1 (- 67%) rise above the development property to elevations of about 180 feet. The fill material on the site was derived from the cuts into these southerly hills. The westerly edge of the subject property is an embankment slope of 1 1/2:1 and 10 to 15 feet in height. This embankment borders a drainage channel serving the small watershed which lies to the southwest. The easterly extent of Buena Vista Lagoon is slightly over 900 feet from the northwest corner of the property. Geology and Soils Stratigraphy The subject property (beneath the aforementioned artificial fill) is underlain predominately by unconsolidated lagoonal deposits of Quaternary age (younger than 2.3 million years). These deposits consist of clay, silt, silty sand, clayey sand, sand and organic matter. They are generally soft and very 4 compressible, ranging in thickness from zero in the southerly portion of the site to about 30 feet at the northwest corner. The approximate extent of these compressible soils is shown on Figure 3-2. 17 1 I I I 1 I I I fi E s: 0 0 .. c * I tn - 'si E L w- c .- 0 E L ;5 N I rrl Q) k 3 M .r( L4- 18 I I I I I n 11 i I E 1. I Older alluvial deposits, consisting of horizontally- oriented, moderately firm to firm sands, silts and clays, underlie the area between the lagoonal sediments and the hills to the south. This material also extends beneath the larger deposits. The alluvium ranges in thickness from zero near the southerly property line to about 70 feet at the northern boundary. 5 The hills south of the subject propertyconsi,st of nearly flat-lying marine sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age overlain by Quaternary terrace deposits. The terrace materials consist of reddish-brown, pebbly course sandstone. The underlying Tertiary rocks are primarily silty sand and clay and, to a lesser extent, sand, clayey sand and silt. These sediments are firm to very firm and generally cohesive, although dry, cohesionless sand deposits occur within the formation.’ expansive and shrink or swell with changes in moisture content. Portions of these southerly hills which once extended onto the subject property were excavated in 1966. The depth of excavation was to approximately the proposed final site elevation of 28 feet, where moderately firm to firm natural soils were exposed. Excavated material from this area and areas to the east were used to construct a compacted fill over former low- lying portions of the site to the north and northwest, thus bringing the remainder of the site to finish grade. An additional The clay soils are somewhat 5 6 5-10 feet of surcharge fill has been placed over portions of the foundation fill to effect a pre-consolidation of underlying soft soils. 19 Seismicity According to the City of Carlsbad "Preliminary Geologic and Seismic Safety Element", no faults with proven displacement within the past three million years are known within the vicinity of the subject property. The nearest potentially active fault is the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon Fault, which lies in the off-shore region approximately seven miles west of the subject p rop e r ty . 7 8 Four major, active, or potentially active, fault zones lie 7 within a 100 mile radius of the project site. These are the Elsinore, Agua Caliente, San Jacinto and San Andreas Fault zones; which lie 22, 28, 44 and 71 miles, respectively, to the northeast. Because of the much greater distance to any of these latter faults, they pose somewhat less of a threat to the project site than does the Rose Canyon Fault. 7 Lands 1 i de s The City's "Geologic and Seismic Safety Element" indicates that an extensive landslide exists in the hills south of the 7 existing shopping center, directly east of the subject property. Stratigraphic discontinuities observed in the slope excavated into the ridge defining the easterly side of Hasp Grove indicate that landsliding has occurred at this location also, although to a much smaller extent. Examination of 1960 aerial photographs indicates that the northern end of this ridge failed toward the I ! I I i i I I I west. The rather subdued topographic expression of this feature indicates that it is quite old. 20 Erosion/Siltation The cut and fill operations of 1966 and in subsequent years has left much of the undeveloped area exposed to erosion. Cut slopes to the south of the development property have not been planted and presently show a severe degree of rilling. buildup at the base of such cuts is significant; some sediment from the cut and fill areas has been carried down the drainage Sediment channel to the west. Bottom land vegetation at the northwestern extent of the channel has been partially buried six to ten inches in depth by this sediment. No siltation basins were previously constructed. Less significant erosion is occurring along the remainder of the fill boundaries due to less concentrated runoff and erosion protection by natural vegetation cover which now exists over much of the development property. Other Geologic Considerations No significant mineral resources nor areas of special geologic or paleontologic interest were noted or are known to exist on the subject property. This site is not considered 9,lO susceptible to such geologic hazards as areal land subsidence or volcanic activity, and the possibility of damage due to tsunamis or seiching is considered negligible. Flooding hazard is dis- 7,11 cussed below under Hydrology. Hy dr ol ogy Surface Water The project site is located near the mouth of the Vista Hydrologic Subunit of the Carlsbad Hydro Unit, one of 11 21 12 drainage systems in the San Diego Basin. The Vista Subunit encompasses some 23 square miles of watershed; approximately 21 square miles of drainage basin lie upstream of the development 13 p roper ty . Buena Vista Creek, the main trunk stream for the water- shed, is an intermittent stream which flows primarily in response to rainfall. As the watershed has become more urbanized, however, runoff from increased landscape irrigation causes a small perennial flow in the Creek. The Creek empties into the Buena Vista Lagoon, approximately 900 feet downstream of the development property . A minor tributary drainage area, approximately 250 acres, lies to the south of the development. Flows from this area are diverted to the west of the development in a drainage channel which was cut through the fill material. In order to control erosion and siltation on the large cut faces south of the project, a series of brow ditches have been constructed. The drainage from these ditches is diverted to the west where it joins the drainage from the above-mentioned small watershed; no flows are permitted to cross the development. The 20 feet of fill placed in the floodplain and upstream extent of the lagoon for the development raised the subject property above the flooding level of Buena Vista Creek. The property is approximately eight feet above the predicted inter- mediate flood height and six _- feet above the predicted standard project flood height. 11 ! 22 Groundwater The nature of the fill material, the pre-existing floodplain and lagoon extent, and the present ponded water in the Creek indicate that the water table is approximately at +10 mean sea level elevation, or at an average of 20 feet beneath the existing site grade. Water Quality An observation well near the intersection of Highway 78 and El Camino Real, about 1,000 feet east of the development, 14 was checked for groundwater quality in 1960. Total dissolved solids were recorded to be 1,660 parts per million. Such brackish water is unfit for most domestic or irrigation uses. The quality of the groundwater beneath the development property would be of even poorer quality as one approaches the lagoon. Meteorology The general climatic setting of the site is well described the weather records of the Camp Pendleton Air Facility, eight miles north of the site, and the Oceanside weather observing station, 2.5 miles north-northeast of the site. The upper-air (radiosonde) station for the San Diego area is located at Montgomery Field, about 27 miles to the south-southeast. Temperature and precipitation aspects of the climate of that area are summarized in Figure3-3 These data show the typical 15 Southern California coastal weather picture: a small-amplitude annual cycle of the moderate temperatures, and a clear distinction between the very dry summer and somewhat wetter winter months. Annual rainfall averages about ten inches. 23 c 0 I I p: i Detailed statistical tabulations of surface wind data are available for the Camp Pendleton Air Facility. The annual and diurnal variations of average wind speed are illustrated Figure 3-4. For all wind speeds less than about 3.5 mph, the prevailing direction is northeasterly, the nocturnal land breeze. At higher speeds, the prevailing direction of the daytime breeze is from west to southwest. Since the project site is nearer to the coast than the Camp Pendleton Air Facility (1.5 in miles as opposed to 8 miles) the daytime westerly winds at the project site are probably one to two mph stronger than indicated in Figure 3-4, and probably set in about one hour earlier. Another important feature of the climate of this area is the amount of sunshine. This is shown indirectly in Figure 3-5, which gives the annual and diurnal variations in the percent frequency of cloudy skies [+ - 8/10 cloudiness) at Lindbergh Field, San Diego, about 31 miles south-southeast of the project site. Lindbergh Field was chosen for these data rather than Camp Pendle- ton, because it is felt that it better represents the coastal cloud conditions that prevail at the project site. Note the maximum frequency of cloudy skies on June mornings and minimum on July afternoons -- the typical "night and early morning low clouds and afternoon sunshine --.I' Table 3-1 provides specific information on humidity, precipitation, temperature averages and related char- acteristics for the City of Carlsbad. 16 25 Figure 3-4 Annual and diurnal variation of average surface wind speed at the Camp Pendleton Air Facility (8 miles north of the project site). I I i i I I- f I I c i I ! I 1 I i I I 26 Midnight 1 I J F M A M J J A S 0 N D MONTH Figure 3-5 Annual and diurnal variation of the percent frequency of cloudy skies ( 9 8/10 sky cover) at Lindbergh Field, San Diego (31 miles SSE of the project site). 27 Temperatures: (1972) Humidity : (24 hour average) 16 Table 3-1 Meteorologic Data January Maximum Minimum 64.1 45.6 April Maximum Minimum 69.1 55.5 July Maximum Eli n imum 78.7 66.7 October Maximum Minimum 72.0 59.1 Annual Average Maximum Minimum 70.2 57.0 January April July October 69% 75 % 82% 74% Annual Average Rainfall: 10.40 inches Prevailing Winds: WNW Mean Hourly Speed: 6.6 mph Air Quality The following Tables are offered to present a rounded picture of the air quality conditions currently describing the regional air cell. Inasmuch as the study area lies immediately south of Oceanside, data acquired at the Oceanside Air Monitoring Station is presented in the tables to follow. 66 I 28 v) c 0 P k nt u 0 k a x kz a e cd 5 2 z U EC =e E-. w x z 0 z I c 0 P k tda or( cn z cn z v) z m z 9 42 M 2 4 z N N Q, N v) rl N N d N d N PI 0 00 0 h 0 wc, 000 E-.zz : c! F ka au a Q,l $1 N I M a rl P (d E-r 0 c3 b40 z 3= 4 r; *- NX xo 0 00 OUZZZ .. x Q, bi c, c .rl e cd c, E: 0 U 5 2 Er a x v 0 n n n E a a v n a E n 2 a a Y .E- a E a E a a v a 0 U U a v N 0 z x 0 z 0 z 29 Table 3-3 Oxidant Data Number of Calendar Days on Whrch the Maximum Hourly Average Equalled or Exceeded Chosen Concentration at Oceanside Air Monitoring Station66 Pollutant Concentration (ppm) .os .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 Oceanside 1973 - 19 72 - 315 203 256 186 140 100 77 10 174 131 94 70 49 15 1 5 0 0 0 0 I I I I I I I I I i i I 30 BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS This section summarfzes flora, fauna, and habitat types found in the project area. It describes the general distribution of vegetative types and discusses wildlife habitat resources and their utilization. A biological inventory of the site is included as Appendix A. Flora The entire proposed expansion area for the Plaza Camino Real shopping center has been totally disturbed from a biological point of view. The area has previously been graded and filled (Winter 67-68). Vegetation on the site consists of adventitious species which readily invade disturbed areas. These ruderal species consist primarily of weedy forbs and annual grasses. (See Species List, Appendix A.) Fauna Due to the lack of coveronthe site, the resident wildlife population is relatively limited to field mice, pocket gophers, ground squirrels, cottontail rabbits, and western meadowlarks (abundant). A variety of additional species may utilize the site on a transient basis from the contiguous drainage channel on the northern boundary of the property, the eucalyptus grove on the south, or the lagoon on the west. The drainage channel (Buena Vista Creek), is filled with cattails, bulrushes, willows and other water-loving plant species. It provides cover and nesting areas for wildlife and also exists as a wildlife corridor between upstream open space and the Buena Vista Lagoon region. served faunal species associated with the drainage include Ob- 31 (number of observed in parentheses) ; red-winged blackbirds (2) mourning doves (2) swallows (1) cinnamon teal (2) A white-tailed kite (I) was observed hunting on and about the site, as was a coyote during a subsequent visit. High Interest Species Floral and faunal species are considered to be of high interest if they are: 1. rare or endangered, and/or 2. of depleted status (including Audubon Blue List species), and/or 3. endemic. Rare or Endangered No rare or endangered floral or faunal species as 17 listed by the California Native Plant Society (CNPS, 1974) or 18 defined by the California Department of Fish and Game (1974) were observed on ,the site. It should be noted that the California Least Tern, an endangered species (CDFGG, 1974), has in the past nested on the fill area (deposited - Winter 67-68) of the proposed shopping center expansion area. The last recorded nesting activity on 19 the fill was 1969. Since that time, no nesting activity has been i I I i i recorded on the fill area probably due to increased human activity on the site, motorcycle use of the area, and the growth of a dense weedy groundcover. Nesting activity by the species is encouraged in the state-owned Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve which is situated across Jefferson Street west of the 32 (number of observed in parentheses) ; red-winged blackbirds (2) mourning doves (2) swallows (1) cinnamon teal (2) A white-tailed kite (1) was observed hunting on and about the site, as was a coyote during a subsequent visit. 1 High Interest Species I Floral and faunal species are considered to be of high \ interest if they are: i> 1. rare or endangered, and/or '2. of depleted status (including Audubon Blue List species), and/or $. endemic. '4 Rare or Endangered No rare or endangered floral or faunal species as 17 listed 6,y the California Native Plant Society (CNPS, 1974) or 18 defined y the California Department of Fish and Game (1974) were observed n the site. 1"t should be noted that the California Least Tern, \ \ an endangereg species (CDFGG, 1974), has in the past nested on the fill area (deposited - Winter 67-68) of the proposed shopping center expansion area. The last recorded nesting activity on the fill was 1969. Since that time, no nesting activity has been recorded on the fill area probably due to increased human activity on the site, motorcycle use of the area, and the growth of a dense weedy groundcover. Nesting activity by the species is encouraged in the state-owned Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve which is situated across Jefferson Street west of the 19 32 project site. The most recent Least Tern survey indicates that only one pair was noted in the lagoon area during the summer of 1974, but no nesting activity was found. 20 Depleted Status A 'depleted' species is one that, although still occurring in adequate numbers for survival, has been heavily depleted and continues to decline at a rate which gives cause for concern. 21,22,23 No species observed or expected to exist on-site meet this criteria. The Audubon Blue List contains avifaunal species which are presently giving apparent indications of non-cyclical, potentially dangerous population declines in all or parts of their range, but are not now of sufficient rarity to be considered 24 endangered. One species listed on the 1975 Blue List which may be expected to utilize the site is the American kestrel (sparrow hawk). However, it is not thought to be declining in San Diego County. 25 Endemic No endemic floral or faunal species were inventoried for the site. Local Biological Resources Significant biological resources situated within 1,000 feet of the project site include Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve, Buena Vista Creek, and an extensive eucalyptus grove to the south of the existing fill area. The latter resource, planted habitat areas for avifauna and Buena Vista Creek, which marks in 1908 and known as Hosp Grove, provides open space, nesting and 27 other wildlife of the lagoon region. the northern boundary of the site, 33 contains marsh plants (bulrush, cattail, wild celery, pickleweed and cyperus) and willow trees. Buena Vista La oon Ecological Reserve occupies 71 acres of The Lagoon is a significant scientific, 88 Buena Vista Lagoon. scenic, and educational resource supporting critical wildlife 29 habitat . The Buena Vista Audubon Society has observed and recorded more than 200 varieties of birds which visit the lagoon region. HUMAN INTEREST CHARACTERISTICS Archaeological, Paleontological and Historical Resources The entire area comprising the proposed expansion has been extensively surveyed for the possible existence of archaeological resources. This survey was conducted on June 2, 1975 by WESTEC Services, Inc., with Richard L. Carrico serving as the project archaeologist. Mr. Carrico is a "Qualified Archaeolo- gist" as defined by the County of San Diego Office of Environmental Management. b I. ~ I1 Survey Techniques The survey was accomplished by means of an intensive on-foot survey of theproposed project and of adjacent areas which I might be indirectly impacted by the project. The scope of the j in-field survey is depicted in Figure 3-6.. A standard survey technique consisting of a system of overlapping geographically definable transects was implemented ! to ensure maximum coverage of the project. Particular attention 1 was given to areas of erosion, areas containing vegetation and I those areas near the southern portion of property adjacent to the 34 Figure 3-6 Archaeological survey area and adjacent recorded sites (from San Luis Rey 7.5' USGS Topographic Map) 35 canyon and valley complex. The survey techniques and preparation of this report adhere to the "Guidelines for the Review of Archaeological 30 Environmental Impact Rep'orts'' (Ring, et al., 1974) and to the archaeological guidelines as approved by the San Diego County Board of Supervisors. Cultural Background Within the North San Diego region one can anticipate finding evidence of at least three distinct aboriginal cultures. The following is a very brief and highly generalized account of the three cultural complexes. Paleo-Indian/San Dieguito 11, I11 Primarily hunters, these peoples also practiced rudimentary gathering of seeds and berries. They lived in the period 12,000 years before the present to roughly 8,000 years ago. These early Paleo-Indians are characterized by the manu- facture of large heavy stone blades and precision knives as well as of manufacturing leaf-shaped projectile points (Rogers 31 32 33 34 1929; Rogers 1966; Wallace 1955; Warren et al. 1961; Moriarty 35 1969). Such implements were first routed out by means of heavy deep flaking of fine grained lithics which were then thinned and honed by a type of lighter,more sensitive pressure flaking. This method of pressure flaking is usually associated with San Dieguito 111. Early Mi 11 ing/ La Jol 1 an- Pauma Sometime around 7,000 years ago a new people inhabited San Diego County. The fate of the earlier San Dieguito r' I I., S! 36 i I I I I I I I D I I I I I 1 culture is as yet unknown. An increasing amount of archaeological evidence implies that the La Jollans were exploiting the sea- coast at least as early as 7,000 years ago and possibly before that time. The name La Jollan originally denoted only those people who lived within a narrow coastal band in western San Diego County. In more recent years this concept has been altered and expanded to the point that it now encompasses inland areas as well. Generally the inland La Jollan complex has gone under the name Pauma after the geographic region in north San Diego County where La Jollan-type artifacts were discovered far inland (True 1959; Warren 1961; Meighan 1954). 36 34 37 Like the San Dieguitoans these shell fish gatherers also lacked ceramics and they also inhumated their dead, though they used a flexed burial position, a common trait among ancient Shoshonean groups. Categorically, the La Jollan-Pauma complexes are called Early Milling Stone of Proto-Archaic, largely as a result of their use of the mano and metate technology. Such a grinding technology is indicative of a culture which, to a large degree, depends on the gathering and processing of seeds, berries and possibly acorns (Moriarty et al. 1959; Rogers 1929; Wallace 1955; Warren 1961; Harding 1951). 38 31 33 34 39 Late Milling/Kumeyaay-Diegueno By roughly 2,500 years ago yet another new people had begun to inhabit the area in and around southern San Diego County. These people, who were Yuman speakers, evidently migrated out of the desert bringing with them a decidedly desert culture. These proto-historic peoples possessed ceramics, had a very 37 elaborate kinship pattern, extensive trade routes, a highly developed grinding technology, rock art, and possibly they practiced a type of swidden agriculture. 40'41'42'43 Swidden agriculture is a primitive, although widespread, form of farming in which the fields are shifted periodically due to soil depletion and reforestation. This method is common in tropical zones. The coming of the Hispanic peoples, and later the more aggressive Anglos, virtually and literally drove the Kumeyaay out of San Diego County and into the southern regions near Tecate and Campo. The decimation of the native people, both intentional and benign, left not only a ravaged race but also a cultural void (Shipek 1970). 40 land form alteration, little is known about any of the three major cultural groups. It thus becomes the role of the archaeologist and historian to reconstruct the early history of San Diego County. As a consequence of rapid development and serious Records Search As noted in Appendix B, neither the San Diego Museum of Man nor the Anthropology Laboratory of San Diego State University have any record of documented archaeological sites within the boundaries of the proposed project, although both institutions list sites in the immediate vicinity. The closest archaeological sites to the proposed project are noted as SDi-630 and SDi-629 (Figure 3-6). Both of these sites were investigated as part of the in-field survey for this project. The results of the field investigation of these sites are to note that both of these sites have been subject to near total destruction. Construction activities, relic collecting and erosion have virtually wiped these sites off of the face of I i I I I t I" I I i I c i i[ j 1 j I I 1 38 the earth. All that marks man's past use of these sites is a widely scattered layer of shell and a few fragmented grinding stones (manos). Municipal Services and Utilities Municipal services and utilities include those functions provided by the local government and public service companies which allow a community to function in an efficient, progressive, safe, healthy and peaceful manner. Municipal services and utilities considered for this project include: Police Protection Fire Protection Health Care Educational Facilities Public Utilities (gas, electricity, solid waste, telephone, water and. sewer) Police Protection The City of Carlsbad currently has an operating force of 36 sworn officers and other various supportive personnel. Service emanates from the Main Station located at 1200 Elm Street in Carlsbad. Patrol of the City is facilitated by the use of seven patrol cars, two jeeps and seven detective units. Private companies currently provide security service to the Plaza, however, the Police Department becomes involved in the event of shoplifting, fraudulent check cashing, auto theft, and routine patrol of the parking lots. 44 86 Fire Protection The City of Carlsbad maintains two operating engine companies. Service to the project site emanates from the City 39 Hall Station, a distance of three miles,with a response time of five minutes. The City provides for a total of 32 firemen with an operating minimum of ten men per shift. A normal response consists of the engine company with emergency ambulance service also available. In addition, a County-wide "mutual aid" system insures adequate fire-fighting capabilities in the event of a large scale emergency. 45 Expansion plans call for an additional station to be built at Chestnut Street and El Camino Real (one mile from the Plaza) and a ladder truck to be added to the City inventory. However, such plans are being delayed due to monetary constraint. 45 Health Care The medical facility closest to the Plaza Camino Real is the Tri-City Hospital. It is located at 4002 Vista Way in Oceanside. The facility is equipped with 171 beds and offers 24-hour emergency service. It is currently operating at or above capacity levels, a situation that concerns hospital adminis- trators. A construction grogram is currently underway to add SO beds to the hospital. Also planned is an additional 47 beds within the next two years. Such expansion is necessary to keep pace with the rapidly developing Tri-City area. 46 Educational Facilities Plaza Camino Real contributes indirectly to the school- age population through its significant employment base. 3ue to the location of the Plaza -- close by the Tri-City boundaries r I I .i of Carlsbad, Oceanside and Vista -- this impact will be shared by all three school districts. No student generation rates are 40 I P I;, 47 currently available for the Plaza. Public Utilities Gas - Natural gas service is provided by the San Diego Gas and Electric Company. Existing facilities in the area include 2-inch gas mains on Marron Road to .the south and the access road on the north of the existing shopping center. Access ducts have been provided in the event of future expansion. 48 Electricity Electrical service is also provided by the San Diego Gas and Electric Company. Existing facilities in the area include a 12 X.V. line running on the south side of the existing May Company store. 48 Solid Waste The McDougal Sanitation Company provides solid waste disposal service to the existing Plaza. Such service entails the utilization of individual trash cans left nightly in front of each store. This system, a consequence of the lack of space for outdoor trash bins, results in additional expense and unnecessary effort. 49 The solid waste is deposited in the San Elijo landfill in Encinitas which currently has a planned lifespan of 1 1/2 years. Once filled, a transfer system to a more distant landfill or plans for a new one will be necessary. 49 41 Te 1 eD hone The Pacific Telephone Company provides telephone service to Plaza Camino Real. The area is served by underground facilities which extend into the Plaza. so Water The City of Carlsbad provides water service to the existing Plaza, the ultimate source of which is the Colorado River (and soon to include the Feather River"). Current facilities in- clude a 12" pipeline loop system which encircles the Plaza. This system connects to a main on El Camino Real. 51 Sewer The City of Carlsbad provides sewer service to the existing Plaza through a 30" trunkline which runs from the Vista area to the pump station located at Jefferson Street. This line has a current capacity of 9.2 million gallons per day (MGD). The pump station has a current capacity of 4.61 MGD and represents a major controlling factor upon any additional capacities. However, plans are underway for its expansion. Sewage is ultimately treated at the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility which has an official rating of 6.75 MCD; however, current flows range as high as 9.0 MGD. Such flows are being treated with additional equipment (beyond that which is rated) until the current expansion is complete. This expansion will increase capacities to 13.75 MGD and is anticipated to be complete by January of 1976. 52 Economics To set the stage for a subsequent discussion of economic impacts related to this project, several points regarding current conditions should be noted (also see Appendix C): 42 1. The existing two-level enclosed mall, encompassing 552,601 square feet, consists of approximately 65 stores, including the May Company and J.C. Penneys. 53 2. Sales associated with the center in 1973 exceeded $28,200,000, and in 1974 were projected at approx- imately $31,300,000, or rou hly 48% of Carlsbad's retail store taxable sales. e3 3. Taxable sales from retail stores in Carlsbad equated to approximately $3,393 per capita, considerably above the San Diego County figure of $1,863, and second only to Escondido ($4,136) among north County cities.S3 4. A residential breakdown of typ&Sal shoppers at the existing center is as follows: Primary Market Area Carlsbad - 12% Oceanside and Vista - 48% Secondary Market Area San Marcos, San Dieguito, Fallbrook - 19% Tertiary Market Area Escondido, Valley Center, Pauma, Camp Pendleton - 12% Other - 9% 5. Plaza Camino Real currently captures varying se ments of potential regional center sales as follows. 53 Within primary market area - 42% Within secondary market area - 23% Within tertiary market area - 10% 6. Other existing or proposed ompetitive regional shopping centers include: 5% Existing Escondido Village Center - 15 miles east Mission Valley - 50 miles south Fashion Valley - 30 miles south Proposed University-La Jolla Shopping Center - 20 miles south (expected completion - two to three years) San Diego Center - Del Mar - 15 miles south (expected completion - indefinite) 7. Existing retail facilities in Carlsbad include:53 . Poinsettia Plaza Tamarack Center Central Business District (CBD) La Costa Population Characteristics and Housing The City of Carlsbad, which incorporated less than 25 years ago (June 24, 1951) has grown in population from 6,963 at the time of incorporation to over 19,600 (October 1974)-- a 181% increase. During the same period the City area has expanded from 7.5 square miles to roughly 27 square miles -- a 260% gain. Assessed valuation at the time of incorporation was estimat- ed at $5 million; today the figure is over $121 million (a 54 24-fold increase), which places Carlsbad at the top of San Diego County cities. 55 While the population in Carlsbad has grown tremendously, it is in keeping with the overall growth throughout north San Diego County. For example, between April 1960 and January 1974,the City of San Marcos almost quadrupled in population; during the same period, Oceanside, San Dieguito, Fallbrook and Escondido 53 approximately doubled. Thus, the impressive growth rate reflects 53 a regional trend which, by a number of accounts, will continue at least through the next decade. Statistics obtained during the 1970 census indicated a poverty level of 8.4%. Racial composition was reported as predominantly white (97%) with the Spanish-American population comprising the bulk of the remaining citizenry. The median I i i I 1 i I I I F 1 I :I i I I i I 44 t: family income, $10,434 annually, is greater than that for neighboring cities although by a relatively small margin. Over half of the labor force of 5,612 persons is employed in a white-collar occupation. 56 Carlsbad's housing market is largely single-family (69%). Median housing value (1970 census data) was listed as $25,600 and median contract rent as $119 per month. 56 Traffic/Transportation and Circulation Vehicular Movement An analysis of existing traffic conditions in and around Plaza Camino Real, as well as the anticipated impact of the proposed expansion upon this network, has been prepared by A.M. Voorhees and Associates, Inc. The analysis is presented in its entirety as Appendix D to this EIR; the following discussion summarizes the findings therefrom. At present, there is only one route of ingress and egress to Plaza Camino Real and this is provided by El Camino Real. Both Haymar Drive (a frontage road to the north) and Marron Road (immediately adjacent to the south of the Plaza) intersect El Camino Real. Despite the limited access, traffic flow in the vicinity of the Plaza is quite good. The only exception to this occurs on northbound El Camino Real (heading toward Route 78) during peak evening hours (generally 4:30 to 5:30 pm). Plaza Camino Real contributes 60% of the existing northbound pm peak traffic on El Camino Real. Traffic volumes on the main streets surrounding 45 i Plaza Camino Real (including State Highway 78, El Camino Real, and Jefferson Street) are presented in Table 3-4, (See Appendix D): Table 3-4 Street Average Daily P.M. Peak (2-way) Traffic Hour* State Highway 78 30 # 500 2,745 El Camino Real 13,000 1,170 Jefferson Street 1,700 153 * 9% of two-way ADT The Oceanside Transit System (OTS) currently provides four bus routes to Plaza Camino Real. Existing bus routes and traffic distribution patterns are shown in Appendix D. Noise A noise survey was made on the proposed expansion area of the Plaza Camino Real shopping center to determine the existing am- bient noise levels. Measurements were made between 3:OO - 6:OO pm on May 30, 1975. A General Radio 1565 Sound Level Meter (SLM) which meets the requirements listed in American National Standards Institute (ANSI) Standard. S1.4-1971, "Sound Level Meters" was used. The SLM was calibrated with a General Radio Type 1562-A Sound Level Calibrator and fitted with a windscreen. Measurements were taken approximately four feet above the ground to avoid ground reflection influences. The A-weighting network and the slow response were used on the SLM. The A-weighting network discriminates against the lower frequencies according to a relation- ship approximating the auditory sensitivity of the human ear in terms of loudness at moderate sound levels. The A-scale sound f 46 level measures the relative noisiness or loudness of many common sounds and as such is commonly used for community noise measure- ments and noise from surface vehicles. Readings were made at five locations throughout the property including one measurement within the existing parking lot (see Fig. 3-7 ) in accordance with the processes described in the Federal Highway Administrations's Fundamentals and Abatement 57 of Highway Traffic Noise. From these readings the L1o sound levels and an approximate average range were determined. The results of the survey are shown in Table 3- 5. descriptor adopted by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Ll0 is the sound level for highway design. It is the sound level that is exceeded 10% of the time. Ambient noise levels are relatively equal throughout the I expansion area. The average range (dBA) compares reasonably well withthat of existing parking lot levels (sample point 5). Vehicular traffic on State Highway 78 is the predominant noise generator in the vicinity of the project site. Traffic volume on Highway 78 was 31,500 vehicles per day in 1973. This value 58 dropped slightly in 1974 to 30,500 vehicles/day probably due to the gasoline shortage that year. Using 1973 traffic volume 59 data, transportation noise contours were prepared by Wyle Laboratories for State Highways and freeways in the San Diego region. The 65 dBA (Lb) noise contour was utilized because it represents an average sound level which may be considered acceptable for un- restricted residential use. The 65 dBA noise contour for State Highway 78 in the vicinity of the project site is shown in Figure 3-8. 47 I i i i . I f- I 48 r ."I C 0 a ';I a :I MM &' 3, mm MN P .rl k a E 0 k k cd B 49 I ! F 1, I ! I 50 -In 2 0 e, UQ, f " .. ... It is noted that the 65 dBA contour lies north of the project r I boundary (Buena Vista Creek) in the area of proposed expansion. Light aircraft were noticed flying over the project site during the noise survey period. This is due to the fact that the VORTAC approach to Palomar Airport passes close by the expansion site. However, noise levels so generated are insignificant on the property due to the high altitudes of incoming flights and the fact that aircraft using the airport at present are primarily single and twin engine prop planes. 60 Aesthetics The expansion site is scarred by previous grading and fill activity. The subsequent growth of weedy adventitious species has somewhat softened its appearance but by no means could the property qualify as an aesthetic asset to the City of Carlsbad. There are a number of valuable aesthetic resources nearby, however, among them the Hosp eucalyptus grove, Buena Vista Lagoon, and the Pacific Ocean. Each of these assets is re- cognized as unique and is the subject of various conservation programs. Energy The only energy consuming source on the subject property 86 at the present time is the Buena Vista Pump Station. 53 SECTION IV ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT fi .. GENERAL The environment of the proposed expansion site, for purposes of this impact analysis, is considered as three in- terrelated components: Physical Environment Biological Environment Human Environment Each component and its composite elements was the subject of an analysis, the results of which are presented in this section. Additional information on adverse impacts and proposed mitigation measures is provided in subsequent sections. This environmental impact report provides complete information on the potential development of the subject property as discussed in Section I1 (Project Description) and Section I11 ( Environmental Setting). As stated in the Introduction, each characteristic has been considered from both a localized and regional perspective. However, to obtain a full evaluation of the regional environmental implications of the project, the specific information drawn from this report must be applied to other studies and analyses dealing with subjects such as regional transportation, air quality, water quality, and socio-economic factors. Such studies have been or are being conducted by the Comprehensive Planning Organization and other regional agencies. 55 PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT Geology and Soils I I Suitability The proposed expansion project is considered geotechnically i feasible provided local soil-related and geologic conditions are taken into account in the design and construction of buildings and other improvements. In particular, detailed design con- siderations will be necessary as related to the potential settle- ment, slope stability and seismic factors. These items are discussed i [. below under separate headings. As described in the previous section, the potential ,. r: for geologic hazards such as areal land subsidence, volcanic 1 i b activity, tsunamis or seiches is extremely low or non-existent at the subject property. In addition, no economically viable mineral resources nor areas of special geologic significance would be lost due to implementation of the project. 7,11 9,lO I. I. Settlement Considerations As discussed in the previous section, the southerly and southeasterly portions of the development site are underlain 6 I by firm natural soils, covered in part by compacted fill. The remainder of the site, however, is underlain by soft, compressible 6 lagoonal sediments, over which compacted fill has been placed. Accordingly, the foundation characteristics of the soils beneath \ the property vary considerably, with the result that relatively large differences in the settlement of buildings and other facilities could occur. This condition is not confined only to this particular site. The existing shopping center has been 56 1, constructed on virtually identical soils, and foundation prepara- tion and design considerations incorporated therein have apparently alleviated any adverse settlement conditions. Suggested means 61,62 of avoiding adverse effects on the subject property are discussed in Section VI. Slope Stability The design of the high slopes excavated into the hills along the southern edge of the site was based on an engineering analysis of the soil materials involved. The recommended slope ratios and runoff protection devices were incorporated into the construction of the slopes, and no gross stability problems are evident. The exposed surface of the cut face, however, is severely eroded and rilled. This condition is discussed further below. The ancient landslide observed in the cut face does S not appear to have been reactivated by the excavation, and is apparently stable. Grading. Very little additional grading will be necessary to prepare the site for construction. Excavations made into the southern portion of the site and filling of the northern portion have brought the property to near finish grade. Some grading associated with the surcharging of areas underlain by compressible soils may be necessary, however. Impacts which are associated with the placement and removal of any surcharge, and with finish grading of the site, center around the potential for increased erosion of ground surfaces once the existing vegetation is cleared. 57 Erosion/Siltation As mentioned previously, the development will require very little additional cut and fill work. Clearing of the vege- tation which has grown on the fill will temporarily expose the area to increased erosion potential. The extremely low slopes on the fill will tend to reduce this erosion potential. Completion of the development with drainage facilities similar to the existing shopping center development will signifi- cantly reduce the erosion and siltation which presently exists. On the north and west embankment slopes, riprap, vegetation and concrete drainages will eliminate erosion,and the impervious nature of the development (i.e., buildings and pavement) will eliminate the existing siltation. Seismicity Three classes of seismically-induced impacts generally merit evaluation at any given site. These are: 1) ground shaking or vibration and the resultant effect on structures, 2) on-site ground or soil failure induced by the shaking, and 3) surface or ground rupture. Ground Shaking The nearest known potentially active fault is the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon Fault, which lies about seven miles to the west, The City's Geologic and Seismic Safety Ele- ment considers a magnitude 6.5 event on this fault as the design earthquake for non-critical structures such as those proposed on the site. Peak bedrock accelerations at the project site, based on the design earthquake, would be approximately 0.28 g 7 1: sa 63 (28% of gravity). f 1 It should be noted that portions of the project site are underlain by relatively soft natural soils and artificial fill. These materials possess lower density and dynamic properties than the underlying bedrock, and consequently will have an effect on the incoming seismic wave. Generally, the physical effect of loose surficial layers is to amplify the basement motions, with the amplification magnitude dependent primarily on the thickness of the overburden soils. While the precise definition of the site amplifica- tion factors (as well as other ground motion parameters) is beyond the scope of this EIR, it is possible to estimate shaking intensity at the development site based on existing foundation conditions. Using data published by Coulter, Waldran and Devine (1973), rock accelerations of 0.28 g amplified through below average soil material or man-made fill would result in ground shaking equivalent to Modified-Mercalli Intensity VIII. For reference, the entire Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale is provided as Figure 4-1. 64 Ground or Soil Failure Ground or soil failure effects pertinent to the project site, based on the City's Geologic and Seismic Safety Element, are liquefaction, lurch cracking, lateral spreading, local subsidence, and landslides. The first four of these effects are based on the property's location within an alluviated area around a lagoon. The potential for impacts due to seismically- induced landsliding is associated with the site's proximity to 7 59 I THE MCRCALLl iNlENS4lv SCALE (As modifid by Charles f. Richter in 19% rnd rtrrranged) Gnhquake chrliing nul felt. hi pcople may oh- me marginal effects of large diUuace errlhquukcs without identifying tkrc effects us crnhquukc- wscd. Amtmg them: trees, urwturea. liquids. bdica IJC water sway slowly. irr Qwrr ruin# shiwlp mkt a PQPll: Shaking felt by those at rot. apccially if they arc in&mrr. and by those on upper fhUI8r mki ua ploplr: Felt by ma68 pccrplc indtnirs. Slime can crtimute durutnm [if shaking. But many may not recognize shaking tif buildin8 u crud by yn earthquake: the chuting is like that mud by the pu~ing of lisht trucks orkr &at. Hanging objects swing. Slrnctvrul ~MC Windows or dwrrt rutile. Wuuden wrllr aad frames cruk M;ra 01 pcrplc;celt by evcryrw indc.wrs. Many euimitc duration of haling. But they Mill may not raognize it u caud by rn earthquake. the hakin# is like that caused by the parring of heavy trucks. hush wmaima. inued. peuple may feel the sen- viion of jolt. u if r heavy ball had struck the u8lls. olkr &ex Hangin8 ubjectr swing. Sanding nut06 rock. Crockery clasher. dish- rhle air lusus clink. Imad d;rar. Dwn close. open or swing. Win- Jowr rurle mrcr m peaplc Felt by everyrrnc indwrrs md by most pcuplc outdwrs. Many now estimate not unly Ihc duration uf shaking but rlur its direction md have nu doubt IS tu its cauu. Sleepers wakened. orlrrr efrcu: Hanging ubjeets swing. Shutters or piaore, maw. Pendutum clocks Uop. Uart or change rue. Sanding autos ruck. Crockery clasher, Jishtf rattle or glasses clink. Lquidr disturbed. wme rpillcd. Small unurble objcur Jisplrccd or upet. Wcik plaster and Mawnry Do crack. Windows bruk. Doon cbu. open uc ruin, ElFk a pqdc Felt by rrrrycmr. Many are frightened and run outdwrs. Pcopk wilt tin- udily. Q~L- krill church uf &I kllr ria& Piuura thtuwn uA walls. knicknukr md bwkr on rh.1- Oirhu or gtr- brq.&aa. Furniture moved or o*rturnd. Trees. busha rhaken vbibly, or hard lo rurlc. cdrcu. Mwnry 0' damaged; wmct auks in Mtmonry C'. Wuk chimnep bruk at rwf line. fluster, loow brickr. rlona. rile& cornku. UR- brd prrpecc and nrchitccturtl utnamentr fill. &ItCrete irrigation ditcha &my+ SInrarml ma dc DifIIKult IO Mud. Shaking noticed hy auto drivers, Ork rff- Wrvcr on ptnds; wrter turbid with mud. Small rlidcc and cmina in along unJ or gravel banks. large bells ring. Furniture broken. Hmnging objects quiver. Srrwrurol rff. Mrwary D*.heavily Jsm4ed: Mawnry C' Jrmagcd. prrtirily eilkpwr in uime uses: utme dunape to M*wmry B'; none to Mwnry A*. Sluccir and umw mwnry wrllr full. - Ckimncyr. hCitJfi - stacks. munwwnis. towerr. devrld tanks lwisl or fall. Frame hues nwvd tin fuundalion, if not brlted down; Itrc~e panel wrlls thrciwn out. Decayed piling brukcn 11% ' UJiCr on prcplc General fright. Paiple thrrtwn to ground. 01k rfFn. Chrnga in lktr or tempcr.turr of wings and wells. Cracks in wet grrurnd aad 01 sleep shp~ Peering of mutoi rffeacd. Bnnckcs kokm frtm trm. Shvrd ~MJ: Mmrnry 0' Jwroyd; Mawary C' huvily damyrrl. wmuima rich umpkte cullapte: Xawnry 8' is seriously damaged. Cencrrl dunage to foundrtiunr. Frme uructura. it not hrltd. shift4 ucI f~rundurnmr Frames racked. Rcrcrwin seriously drmued. Unwrovnd pips kokeh ufrcr OR General Pinu. Orha &as Ccmrpicuous crwts in (rtiud. tn neas of wft gruund. band is ejstd through holes and piles up into s amril crater. MJ. ir muddy armr. water rountrinr are formed. Mort niawnry and frrnic ctruc- turn Jeuroycd rlunp with their firu~d~ri~ins. Some well-built wwdcn siructura and bridges Jeuroycd. Scriuus damage to Jams. dikes and embmkmcnts. R~ilrods bent slightly. Slrvawl @ku m we: General panic. Ork Large Irndalida. Water thruwn on bonks of canals, riverr. lakes, etc. Sand MJ mul &if- tcd hurizortrlly on bcacha and IW land. Slruud &a General Jcuruakn oC buildings. Underground pipdincr cumpktcly uu( of mice. fbitruds knt graily. ' qkf a &e: Cim~~l pnic. Ckhu Qkp. %me ai Oir lnimriiy X. Strvcrd &kts Drmugc nmrly tad. the ulti- mute wtarrrophe. ak cbcca. hrgc ruck mwu dbpkcd. Lima of sight and level distorted. Objms thrown. into air. */+ Figure 4-1 Modified %ler?-aili- Scale -of Intens-ities 60 1. the steep hills lying to the south. As previously noted, the project site has been filled to a height of approximately 20 feet above the lagoon sediments. This has elevated the finish grade of the project well above the groundwater table, and the weight of the fill material has largely pre-consolidated the underlying soft sediments (however, depending on further soil investigation, additional surcharging may be required in certain’ areas such as the drainage channels6). Thus, the potential for seismically-induced liquefaction, lurch cracking, lateral spreading, and local subsidence is significantly reduced. Nevertheless, when the final soil investigation and foundation design work is completed, these factors should be addressed in detail. With respect to seismically-induced landsliding, the artificial slopes constructed for the project were designed with a consideration of potential seismic loading. Ground Rupture Ground surface rupture may occur along an active fault in association with an earthquake or as gradual displacement or creep. Historically, rupture or displacement has generally occurred on pre-existing traces of previous ruptures. Because no active or potentially active faults are known to pass through the project site, the potential for surface rupture due to fault movement is very low. 7 Flooding An analysis of flooding potential along Buena Vista Creek 13 was performed by the Army Corps of Engineers in 1972-1973. As 61 such, the fill was necessarily considered as a natural restriction to high flows in the Creek. The projected intermediate flood height and standard flood height.were found to be eight feet and six feet, respectively, below the elevation of the development property. --_ . -_ __ Hydro 1 ogy Surface Runoff The impact of the proposed development on surface runoff will be measurable in terms of both flow volume and rate. The construction of paved and roofed surfaces over most of the site will lead to a change in the discharge characteristics of surface flow.for the property. Following development, surface runoff will build more rapidly to peak flow during and immediately following rainfall, then drop off at a faster rate. Such a change in flow characteristics is normally significant to downstream flooding potential. However, since drainage for the development empties into Buena Vista Lagoon, the greater volume and more rapid peak flows for the development property will produce a negligible effect on the lagoon water storage. The development will create about 32 acres of impervious surface near the mouth of a watershed, approximately 13,440 acres (21 square miles) in area. As discussed above, under "Erosion/Siltation", develop- ment of the project site will reduce the existing erosion resulting from surface runoff across the unprotected slopes. G r oundwa t e r The proposed development will not utilize the 62 / groundwater resource in any way. The impervious nature of the y: -1 E i development surface will restrict recharge from reaching the water table. However, recharge to the groundwater system is of minor importance locally because of the naturally poor quality of the groundwater and the non-use of this resource in the immediate area. Water Quality Surface runoff from the developed site will contain a number of urban pollutants such as hydrocarbons, rubber and metal particles from parking areas, fertilizer from landscaped areas, and several others. drainage network and eventually into Buena Vista Creek and Lagoon. These substances will L- move down the local __ -- C 1 ima t e It is not anticipated that the project will have any significant direct impact on the general climate of the region or on the microclimate of the immediate locale. Air Quality Pollutant Emissions The quality of the local andregionala,r cells w 11 be incrementally degraded as a result of the proposed development. The sources which will contribute to this include construction activity, vehicular activity, and the use of heating and cooling units within the Plaza. The predominant localized impact on air quality will be the introduction of dust and particulate matter during the 63 construction phase. Regional air quality will be affected primarily through motor vehicle emissions. The following data has served as a background for air quality estimates: 1. Trip Generation Factors (see Appendix D): Source Floor Area Generation isquare feet) Rate To t a1 /Day Plaza Camino Real Wes t (expanded 449 , 881 30 trips/ 1000 sq ft 13,496 portion only) 2. Average number of miles per trip = 4.5 miles 3. Total vehicle miles per day = 60,732 65 Using AP-42 methodology and factors, motor vehicle travel associated with the Plaza Camino Real expansion will generate the following emissions (assuming full occupancy of the expanded Plaza by 1980): Table 4-1 Pollutant Emissions from Mobile Sources Emission Rate pounds tons Po 1 lut an t per day per day Carbon Monoxide 3,077 1.54 Hydro carbons 39 2 .20 Nitrogen Oxides (NO, as NOZ) 415 .21 Particulates 88 .04 Sulfur Oxides (SOz) 27 .01 A comparison of the expanded Plaza Camino Real emissions with average daily emissions throughout San Diego 66 County in 1973 is offered below: 64 Table 4-2 L Comparison of Project Emission Rates With Countywide Emission Rates Po 11 ut ant Carbon Monoxide As a Percent of 1973 Countywide Mobile Source Emissions .001 Hydrocarbons .001 Nitrogen Oxides (NO, as NO2) .003 Particulates .004 Sulfur Oxides (so2) .002 48 Data provided by San Diego Gas and Electric Company and the EPA regarding pollutant emissions from stationary sources result in the following: 1. Natural Gas: 12 cu ft/sq ft/yr = 5,398,572 cu ft/year 2. Electricity:19.6 KWH/sq ft/yr = 8,817,668 KWHlyear 3. Adjustment Factor: 38% of the power supplied by San Diego Gas and Electric will be produced by burning fossil fuels by 1980. These factors, when applied to the Plaza Camino Real expansion, result in the following pollutant emissions: Table 4-3 Pollutant Emissions from Stationary Sources Pollutant Carbon Monoxide Hydrocarbons Nitrogen Oxides (NO, as NO2) Part i cula tes Sulfur Oxide (S02) 65 Emission Rate (pounds per day) .30 .12 20.14 9.46 73.45 One final comparison shows the relationship of all pollutant emissions from. the project (both mobile and stationary sources) to the grand total of 1973 emissions from all sources in San Diego County. Table 4-4 Percentage Comparison of All Project Emissions to All Countywide Emissions poll Po 1 lut an t Percent of 1973 Emissions from All Sources Carbon Monoxide .OOlZ Hydrocarbons .0007 Nitrogen Oxides (NO, as N02) .0013 Par ti cul a tes ,0008 Sulfur Oxides (SOz) ,0014 Pollutant Dispersion As can be seen from Figure 3-4, the typical transport of I i 1 I I I' I i itants from late morning to late afternoon will be rapidly way la from the site toward the east-northeast. Two parameters that are primarily associated with the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants and that are amenable to statistical analysis from long-period l I speed through the mixed layer.* I r climatological records are the mixing depth and the mean wind I *The "mixing depth" is an objective estimate of the vertical thickness of that layer through which pollutants emitted at the surface become uniformly mixed (dispersed) after an unspecified, but relatively small number of hours. This concept, though not fully developed in terms of the atmospheric dynamics of local areas nor calibrated thoroughly with pollutant measurements, is nevertheless an instructive indica- tion of the statistical potential for high levels of atmospheric pollution. 66 Upper-air data obtained at Montgomery Field over a five- year period from 1960-1964 as shown in Figure 4-2, provide a number of interesting implications about the atmosphere's ability 67 to dispose of local pollutants: 1) the months of July, August and September are the most critical because both the mixing layer depths and wind speeds are minimal; 2) conversely, November, and the winter-spring months of January, February, March and April are the least problematic in terms of these meteorological indicators of air pollution potential; and 3) regardless of time of year, the daytime pollution potential is much less than the early morning potential -- based on the meteorological factors above -- because of the higher daytime mixing depths and wind speeds. On the microscale, local stagnation conditions are of some concern. The topography of the immediate area is not extreme, but it would not serve to discourage stagnant wind situations. Figures 4-3 and 4-4 show how the frequencies of "calms" (winds less than about 1.5 mph) vary annually and diurnally at Camp Pendleton Air Facility and North Island Naval Air Station, respec- tively. It is probable that such very light wind conditions at the project site represent a compromise between these two sets of data -- the Camp Pendleton weather station is more protected than the project site from a strong land and sea breeze system by distance from the sea and low hills to the northwest -- North Island is right on the coast with no orographical protection from west to southwest winds. The important implication, though, 67 * I .. I I' I b - .- X c .- c 68 - 02 04 06 O€ HOUR IC N oan 14 I€ ia 2c 22 Midnight >45 O/O I 1 I 1 I 1 I I I I I J F M A M J J a S 0 N O MONTH Figure 4- 3 Annual and diurnal.-variation of the percent frequency of calm wind condition at Camp Pendleton Air Facility (about 8 miles north of the project site). 69 H J F M A M J J A S 0 N MONTH Figure 4-4 Annual and diurnal variation of the percent frequency of calm wind conditions at Sorth Island Yaval Air Station (about 33 miles SSE of the project site). 70 I I i i 1 I 1: r I 1 b i I.>: ! I 1 I \ I I I I I I I I c; f 1 I is that the hours until late morning wil1,about 30% of the time in November, December and January, provide little ventilation of emissions out of the shallow valley in which the site is located. During these hours, the drift of air is slowly toward the sea. BIOLOG I CAL ENVIRONMENT Due to the already disturbed condition of the property, no additional on-site biological impacts of significance are foreseen. Development of the site will not entail the removal of any trees or shrubs. All of the inventoried floral and faunal species are common throughout the region. No rare and/or endan- gered floral species as defined by the California Native Plant Society(CNPS, 1974) or faunal species as given by the California Department of Fish and Game (CDF$G, 1974) were observed on the 17.18 site. The California Least Tern, an endangered species,has not nested on the fill area since 1969 (see discussion, Biological Characteristics, Environmental Setting). 19,zo A few raptorial species will suffer a reduction in their hunting territory as a result of the development. One raptor which may be expected to utilize the site is the American kestrel or sparrow hawk [Falco sparverius). It appears on the Audubon Blue List for 1975; however, it is not thought to be declining 24,25 in San Diego County. The development of the site will eliminate a small resident rodent population but should not significantly affect the present environment of the adjacent drainage channel (Buena Vista Creek), as evidenced upstream next to the existing shopping center. 71 ' IJrban runoff from the site will incrementally affect the viability of Buena Vista Lagoon. Urban drainage will impact Buena Vista Lagoon by inducing "cultural" eutrophication. :.lany physical and biological variables are involved in determining the effect of urban drainage from the watersh,ed area on the ecology of the lagoon. The Buena Vista Creek drainage area encompasses 74 about 21 square miles. The amount of runoff reaching the lagoon and the effect it will have on its existing biological system there is uncertain. Urban drainage and storm runoff are coming under increasingly closer scrutiny by water quality control auth- orities. Investigations have shown that the suspended solid con- centrations in runoff may exceed those of raw community sewage /- and the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) may equal the concentra- tion in secondary effluent. Bacterial constituents (coliform) may also be expected to be high in urban runoff, .c 7s It is noted that "commercial areas (i.e., business districts, shopping centers) have substantially lighter loading intensities than the mean for cities on the whole". Contaminant load in 76 urban runoff is lower in commercial areas than the city mean by a factor of 4.8. Contaminant load of BOD, phosphates, and heavy metals is higher from residential and industrial land use areas than commercial areas by a factor of greater than 76 3. 76 Lower contaminant loading intensities in commercial areas are probably due to the fact that they are swept so often. The Plaza Camino Real shopping center is swept completely six times a week. 77 72 ! Sediment transport into the lagoon from the project ‘site has increased substantially since the fill was placed there in the winter of 67-68 (see discussion Geology and Soils). The completion of the project would alleviate this problem provided that present cut and fill slopes are adequately landscaped. I Noise should not adversely affect the fauna of the Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve. This conclusion is based on the existence of State Highway 78 and Jefferson Street as primary noise sources to the area. The r increase in traffic --- - on - I these &-”-” roads directlyattributableto the expansion of --- the shopping ^.__ - -- fi+ It .* center, is negligible. .- Wildlife is most affected during the - PO’ CL 1 f f ,-A,+ &Heb: / .c. breeding and nesting seasons and more specifically by sudden ,)I” 4 or intermittent noise intrusions which are distinctively louder 78 than the ambient (e.&, blasting, horns). Some noise dis- ruption due to the operation of heavy machinery on the site during the early stages of construction may adversely affect wildlife associated with Buena Vista Creek, the eastern portion of the lagoon (Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve), and the neigh- boring eucalyptus grove. HU3tAZI INTEREST CIiilRACTERISTICS Archaeological, Paleontological and Historical Tesources The results of the archaeological survey were negative; no archaeological sites or resources were noted on or near the subject property. -4 thin undefinable scattering of shell (Chione and Pecten) was noted in the western segment of the project adjacent to the flood control channel. It is assumed that these shells are the remnants of a natural lagoon deposit .. \ -. \ 73 or that they may represent the eroded remains from an adjacent archaeological site. Although it is possible that this project site may have been the location of an archaeological site in the past, severe I i earth removal, blading and grading as we11 as natural erosion would have destroyed virtually any traces of it. In sum, no impact upon archaeological, paleontological and historical resources is anticipated in connection with the project under review herein. ’Iuni c ipa 1 Services Police The proposed expansion would primarily involve an I I , ’ \increase \ in private security service to the Plaza. However, Ythe project would result in an incremental increase in demand . cr f~ ’i .for City police service in the event of shoplifting, fraudulent ‘* ’J’’ J check-cashing and auto theft cases. The Police Department does not,anticipate any major difficulty in providin such 4f -- .__ in that they already cover the existing Plaza. Fire - Expansion of the Plaza Camino !?ea1 will incrementally increase the demand for fire-fighting and emergency service. Fire Department officials feel that the most significant inpact can be seen in terms of inadequate manning levels in the event of a large scale blaze at the exnanded Plaza Camino Real. In order to take advantage of maximum water flows (4500-6000 gallons per minute), an optimum response would require six engine companies, far beyond the City’s current capabilities. Such a problem could 45 --- ~- - -.-.---e -.. I i b 74 I"_ be partially alleviated by the employment of the County-wide mutual aid system. However, dependence upon such a system would result in longer response times. Expansion plans calling for an additional station only one mile from the project site and a ladder truck would greatly enhance fire-fighting capabilities. Such plans have been formulated but remain una proved due to monetary constraints. In addition, design, easures, such as an interior sprinkler system, should be employed wherever possible. ,.p 45 Health Care As previously discussed, an excellent medical facility, the Tri-City Hospital, is within reasonable proximity of the project site. \ i The impact of additional shoppers as a result of the '. planned expansion will not result in any significant impact upon their operations. 46 Educational Facilities The proposed expansion of Plaza Camino Real will generate employment for an estimated200 persons. These persons 47.53 ..---- will reside not only in Carlsbad (est. 40% or less), but also Oceanside, Vista and outlying areas as well. Unfortunately, no student generation rates are available from which to project the resultant student population. The project will not contribute significant additional I. L _-I_-- _- Tr -- -..-- revenues to the Carlsbad Unified School District. This is due to the revenue limits which have been established by the District on a per child basis. effect on reducing .property andSzllsin~s_..-taxes_frzr those within 47 However, the increased base may have a small __--. 75 the District's boundaries. Public Utilities Gas Based upon data provided by the San Diego Gas and - Electric Company, projections of gas usage can be based upon the annual usage rate of 12 cubic feet per square foot of commercial space. At the completion of the proposed expansion, annual 48 gas consumption will be increased by 5,398,572 cubic feet. It is anticipated that the San Diego Gas and Electric Company can provide service to the project without interruption and without incurring significant impact. .- 48 ---- .__- -- -_. - Electricity Projections of electricity usage provided by the San Diego Gas and Electric Company are based upon the annual usage 48 rate of 19.6 kilowatt hours per square foot o.f commercial space. At completion, the proposed expansion will consume 8,817,667.6 kilowatt hours. Although the San Diego Gas and Electric Company is optimistic regarding their obligation to meet these future demands, delays in acquiring sufficient fuel supplies could affect their service capabilities. Solid Waste The proposed expansion will produce 821.25 tons of solid waste annually. Representatives of EfcDougal Sanitation Company have stated that they could serve such an expansion (see Appendix G), however, it is their feelings that either 1) space must be provided for bin-type service or 2) a conveyor belt-packer system should be installed 76 r I I to prevent the continuation of the inefficient system currently operating in the Plaza. 49 Such an increase in production of solid waste would result in an incremental decrease in the projected lifespan of the San Elijo Landfill. Once filled, a new landfill or a 49 transfer system to a more distant one will be required. -- _I. Telephone The Pacific Telephone Company foresees little difficulty in providing service to the proposed expansion, Such a provision would involve the extension of existing underground facilities to newly built areas. 50 !\Tater Expansion of the Plaza Camino Real would necessitate a concurrent expansion of water facilities serving the project site. Such an expansion would include the extension of the east- west portions of the existing pipeline loop and a new line which would run in a north-south direction connecting these expanded portions. 51 Using a daily consumption rate of 2,750 gallons per 52 acre for commercial developments, the proposed expansion would consume _--_I 33.12 ---- milljp_ns of gallons of--water --- annually. Ilr service capabilities - ” -------. of the -_--_ city. / - - [lowever, bp- such an increase does not create a significant impact upon the * -- _. - - I - 52 Y- 4 /f/G t 3% *4+2 _I- ___ __ _--- --- 6? &%-$Ash1 Sewage Ju The City of Carlsbadforesees little difficulty in connect- ing to existing pipelines in order to adequately provide sewer service to the proposed Plaza expansion. 77 d* Using an average daily generation rate of 2,500 gallons 52 for commercial developments, this project would result in an annual sewage generation of 30.11 million gallons. -4s in the case of water service, the increase is well within the planned w- - capabilities of the City of Carlsbad, including the expansion of the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility already underway. 52 Population Growth and Housing 35 It has been calculated that the expansion of Plaza Camino Real will generate employment for roughly 900 persons. Based 53 on a job to houseKold ratio of .6, it is further assumed that these jobs will support approximately 540 new households. Further- more, a number of variables suggest that these households will be distributed among at least three local communities (Carlsbad, Oceanside and Vista) and possibly more (e+ Escondido, Leucadia). It has been estimated that less than 40% of the 540 new house- holds will he established in the City of Carlsbad. This figure (216 new households) translates roughly to 520 persons (2.4 persons per household), realized over the first three years of operation. 53 The growth rate estimated above falls well within the projcc- tions of the San Diego County Comprehensive Planning Organization. Thus the proposed expansion, when viewed in terms of historic (see Section 111 ) and projected population trends, will have an essentially negligible impact on the growth rate of the City of Carlsbad. It must be emphasized, however, that these comments apply to direct population growth (see SectionVIII-C, Growth- Inducing Impacts). 78 Although the proposed expansion is not,seen as a significant population generator, there are a number of subtly related concerns which do merit special attention. One of the more sensitive concerns relates to the high prob- ability that many of those who work in the expanded Plaza will be unable to afford housing in Carlsbad and so will turn to nearby cities, such as Oceanside, where the housing costs are less pre- cipitous. Conversely, of those prospective employees who already reside in the vicinity of the Plaza, many will come from outlying cities because of the fact that residents of Carlsbad enjoy a standard of living which effectively removes them from the category of retail sales employment. fall within the lower wage earning brackets). Thus, the City of Carlsbad may well be in the position of reaping handsome tax revenues from the Plaza while allowing neighboring communities to shoulder the costs of housing Plaza employees. (Retail employees commonly 53 It would be remiss to neglect mention of Carlsbad's Hgusing 79 Authority in this section. The Housing Authority provides its services to low income persons seeking residence in the City of Carlsbad. At the present time, fully 135 units (which are first leased by the Housing Authority and then re-let to eligible families) are provided. Although the vacancy rate is understandably low, the service'is well worth waiting for. Persons eligible for 79 this service pay 25: of their monthly income toward rent -- generally from $0 to $150 -- with the remainder of the cost paid for by the IIousing Authority. Eligibility is determined on the basis of income and is extended only to families (at least one parent with one child) and the elderly and/or handicapped. Income limits are based on gross income adjusted to reflect various deductions but range broadly between a maximum of $5,600 per annum for a family of two people and 57,900 for a family of eight. Economic s I A thorough analysis of the economic and financial implications of the proposed Plaza Camino Real Shopping Center expansion was prepared by Levander, Partridge and Anderson, Inc. for the City of Carlsbad in mid-1974. That analysis, which is included in its entirety as Appendix C to this EIR, formed much of the basis 53 for the following discussion. Given the considerable amount of, economic data already available, it was agreed by representatives of the City, the Plaza and WESTEC Services that this EIR would include only synopses of existing information. The points noted below thus represent only the major economic impacts of the ex- panded center. Those readers desiring further detail should refer to Appendix C. 80 Impact on the City of Carlsbad As might be expected, the net economic impact on the City of expanding Plaza Camino Real as proposed would be signif- icant and beneficial. Likewise, its effect on the residents of Carlsbad would be quite salubrious. f ! 80 Looking briefly to the past, it should be acknowledged c r 7 3 1.: that the introduction of Plaza Camino Real into the City has already contributed to the production of considerable economic benefits . In 1968, Carlsbad had a population of 13,850 and an assessed valuation of $39,575,000, representing a per capita assessed valuation of $2,857, while in 1974, population equalled 19,600 and assessed valuation was $121,045,000, or $6,176 per capita.81 In other words, as population increased 42%, per capita assessed valuation increased 116%. In 1968, total taxable sales equalled $10,254,000, or $740, per ca ita.81 In 1974, they had increased to $35,509,000,~1 or $4,363 per resident, representing an increase in per capita taxable sales of 1,070%. Regarding conformance with existing plans, the proposed /? p expansion is fully in line with the Economic Analysis Sumnary contained on page 14 of the City's General Plan, its Land Use Element. The only exception worth noting is the estimate of $35 million of retail sales by 1985 projected in the 1965 report. That figure was passed in 1971 and, as discussed earlier, sales at Plaza Camino Real were $31,300,000 in 1974 p /wy/l as well as with ?/".!,, 82 --I. - -. I 69 'i (3 while total taxable sales in the City of Carlsbad amounted to $77,046,600 during the same year. Looking to the future, the following projections are made, if the expansion of Plaza Camino Real takes place as 53 proposed: 1. Sales within the Plaza will increase: . From $31,300,000 in 1974, . to $59,480,000 in 1977, to . approximately $70,000,000 in 1985, and to . approximately $80,000,000 in 1990. 2. City revenues from sales taxes, property taxes, 81 and business license fees associated with the Plaza will increase to: . $363,548 in 1977, . $383,422 in 1980, . $466,420 in 1985, and . $513,800 in 1990. 3. The surplus of revenues over costs that will accrue to Carlsbad is conservatively estimated at: . $122,184 in 1977, . $113,902 in 1980, . $196,900 in 1985, . $244,280 in 1990, and . $4,010,000 over a 20-year period. providing a means to accelerate revitalization of the Central Business District (CBD). :I 4. Increased bonding capacity will be created, thus It should be noted that the City of Carlsbad has been requested to fund a portion of the initial parking and street expansion improvements, in the amount of $1,500,000. However, if past experience is indicative, it is unlikely that City funds will actually be spent. To quote from an article in the San Diego Evening Tribune : 88 "Mamaux got the City Council to embark on a policy in which the City provided $1.5 million ~~~~~~ for parking and access road improvements for the Plaza Camino Real Shopping Center." *w "Actually, no City funds were spent since the "City" money came from sales tax revenue generated from the shopping center." V Furthermore, it is our understanding that no financial risk will attach to the City of Carlsbad itself. If any risks I 2. I are to be taken, such risks would be secured by a separate 82 P I, agreement with the May Store Shopping Center, Inc. Should the sales tax revenue from the expanded retail area fail, i 1 I' #-F@ w" in any year, to meet the sum required for bond amortization, ~ ?7 : &/) ; ~, i \, :: p &#"& L May Store Shopping Center, Inc. will reimburse the City for the difference between funds collected and payments due. 89 In sum, as regards the City of Carlsbad as a whole, the expansion of Plaza Camino Real represents a significant cornerstone in the City's future economic and financial solidi- fication and well-being. Impact on the Central Business District (CBD) and Other Retail Facilities in Carlsbad Concern has been expressed regarding the effect of expanding This area Plaza Camino Real on the viability of Carlsbad's CBD. has been previously identified as requiring renewal 69,70 and revitalization. Given the facts generated to date, plus studies of similar conditions elsewhere, several key points can 83 be made: 1. The CBD is not now effectively competing in the area of Pure commercial uses. with Plaza Camino Real,-nor would it attempt to compete in the regional shopping center market in the future. 2. The CBD is in a unique position to create its own identity with a central type of theme such as that found in Laguna Beach or Carmel, thus attracting smaller design-oriented or professional offices. 3. Plaza Camino Real, in either its present or expanded status, does not offer a strong 83 generative force to promote the development of office type uses. 4. Corporate main or regional offices would tend to locate in Carlsbad primarily for environ- mental, as opposed to locational, advantages. 5. Considering the proximity of Carlsbad to San Diego's financial center, it is highly unlikely that financial institutions would relocate into the CBD, except to serve local needs. I r I i Assuming that the CBD would not attempt to compete I I against Plaza Camino Real, the proposed expansion offers various possibilities for serving as a catalyst to CBD revitalization. i In addition, certain impacts on the CBD and other retail facilities in Carlsbad Till occur as a result of the expansion. i A brief se opportunities and impacts is offered below: Utilization may be made of the Parking Authority as the bonding agency to fund CBD projects, using the increased bonding capacity represented by the proposed expansion. 1. 2. As discussed in some detail in Appendix C, the expanded shopping center will draw a maximum of $1.5 million from other outlets within the City of Carlsbad. However, it will also draw increased numbers of shoppers into Carlsbad, thus the net effect could be considerabl less than 1 I the projected $1.5 million maximum. 33 . As noted earlier, a net surplus of revenues over $' costs will accrue to the City as a result of the beneficial effect on the financial well-being of Carlsbad, including the CBD and other commercial areas. ,!a expansion. This surplus cannot help but have a 4. Assuming that certain of the recommendations made I 84 in the Mitigation 'Ieasures section of this report (, are followed, shoppers drawn to the expanded Plaza Camino Real should find ready transportation to the /z$" ::it' CBD, thus enhancing the possibility that the two a- areas will complement rather than compete with each other. Appendix F contains a letter from the president of the Downtown Yerchant's Association, voicing their conditional approval of the proposed expansion, provided that the City actively assists and helps fund downtown re-development. As noted above, the means for accomplishing this are currently being determined within the City. Impact on Primary, Secondary and Tertiary 'larket Areas ?ex c lud i nrr Car 1 s b ad 1 As one might expect, the expansion of Plaza Camino Real will have a deleterious effect on retail sales (and asso- ciatedelements) of the two cities comprising, with Carlsbad, the primary narket area, It will similarly affect those cities in the secondary and tertiary market areas, but to a somewhat lesser degree; In 1973, retail sales per capita for Oceanside and Vista were $2,018 and $l,S32, respectively, compared with 93,393 in Carlsbad and $1,863 county-wide. market area by Plaza Camino Real is currently 422. It is estimated Penetration of the primary that the expansion of the center as proposed will increase that figure to 65% in 1977 and sustain it thereafter. 53 Secondary and tertiary market area penetration by the Center is currently 23% and lo%, respectively. Capture of secondary narket area dollars is expected to increase to 42% following expansion and remain in the 38-42? ranTe thereafter. 85 L b. ,/ ~ikewise, tertia'ry nenetration will increase to 238 by 1977 53 / and remain in the 22-249 range through 1990. In sum, while the Plaza Camino Peal ewansion will have a largely beneficial effect on the City of Carlsbad and its . residents, it will do so at the expense of those cities com- prising the primary, secondary and tertiary market areas, to . varying degrees. Traffic/Transnortation and Circulation Once again, the reader is encouraged to review Appendix D which provides an in-depth analysis of the impact u?on circula- tion which can be anticipated in conjunction with the proposed expansion. -4 brief summary of the major points is contaized . .. below. The expanded Plaza will generate approxinately 30 two-way daily tri?s Fer 1,OOQ square feet of floor area. Table 4-s below, presents the ex?ected future traffic volumes for 1) the existing Plaza, 2) the proposed expansion, and 3) the Plaza in whole: Table 4-5 Anticipated Traffic Volumes Floor Area Source Square Feet Generation Pate Generated Trips Existing Plaza 571,592 50/1000 sq. ft. 17148 Proposed Expansion 349 , 881 30/1000 sq. ft. 13496 Plaza (existing S proFosed) 1,021,573 30/10r30 sq. ft. 30644 Although Plaza- generated traffic will nearly double as a 1 result of the pronosed expansion, this increase will not adversely , __-.------ I 86 hL affect local circulation due to the concomitant extension of Marron Road to adjoin Jefferson Street. This latter extension t~jd J' "2 2' .ku.y" -- --- -- will further serve to reduce the congestion now experienced sfi 4d ,b along El Camino Real during p.m. peak hours. In addition, it is planned at some (uncertain) point in the near-fuxure-Lo, - -- 44p'- "/ L.' widen the easterly half _- of -_ -.---q____ the El Camino I ..-- Real - bridge,auex ..." -- , __I , Buena Vista Creek. This action, in conjunction with other planned improvements throughout Carlsbad (see Appendix D, -- - -... Location Map and Future Street Network), will assure that the traffic generated by Plaza Camino Real can be adequately accommodated by the planned circulation network. The circulation network will be further augmented by the initiation of two additional bus routes (a total of six) to serve Plaza Camino Real. These routes are illustrated in Appendix D. Two points are raised in the Traffic Analysis as deserving of further consideration by the appropriate planning agencies: 1. At present, parking lots on the southern side of Plaza Camino Real enter and exit directly onto Marron Road. This arrangement poses no problems as long as Marron Road retains its current configuration; however, when Marron Road is extended to Jefferson, serious traffic hazards could arise if the situation is not corrected. This arrangement applies only to the existing Plaza and will not be repeated within the expanded Plaza parking area. 2. The extension of Marron Road to Jefferson Street will undoubtedly result in additional traffic volumes along I JeffersonStreet In view of existing parking and "duck ' safety" problems in the vicinity of the duck landing, the increases in traffic may well exacerbate congestion along that route if remedial actions are not taken. ~~~~ Noise Noise is considered a localized impact on the Plaza Camino Real expansion site. No consideration has been given in this report to the regional impact of the project in terms of the 87 effect of noise generated by motor vehicles on other regional areas although, of course, as travel 'to and from the site in- I creases, so too will the associated noise levels increase along contributing roadways. I I Three sources of noise were considered in the impact analysis: . Construction noise . Aircraft Noise i I . Traffic Noise Construction Noise I I I Noise levels which can be anticipated in conjunction with the grading and construction process are presented in Table4-6. Levels are given in energy average (Leq) dB(.4) present at the construction site. For purposes of estimation, the noisiest piece of equipment is assumed to be 50 feet away and all other equipment is assumed I to be 200 feet away. Table 4-6 Noise Produced at the Construction Site (Leq) Activitv Ground Clearing Excavation Foundations Erection Finishing I All Pertinent Equinment at the Site Standard Deviation Rv e r ag e 85 8 88 3 31 10 81 10 88 7 b i 11 I ?fininurn 9equired Eauip- I rnent Present at Site I Standard I Deviation .lv e r a p e 83 15 i 7s 14 81 17 1 65 72 Q 12 I I 88 I I I I I i E I I Because the expansion site is significantly removed from the residential developments in surrounding areas, the impact will be largely confined to an inconvenience for shoppers and employees of the existing mall. Aircraft Noise The proposed expansion site lies well beyond the significant impact zone of Palomar Airport in terms of noise levels generated therefrom. This is true despite the fact 60,84 that the VORTAC approach now in use passes over the vicinity of the expansion property. In addition, three facts suggest that acoustical impacts associated with Palomar Airport upon the site will decrease or remain stable, rat5er than increase over time: 1. The existing 1'OXT.K approach is scheduled to beg5 realignedalong a path to the east of the site. 2. Aircraft currently utilizing Palomar Airport are restricted primarily to light ?lar?es; in 1973, fully 99% of all operations were6pade hy either single or twin engine aircraft. 3. Prior and anticipated reduction in jet aircraft noise levels suggest that if and when Palornar expands to accommodate heavier propeller craft and business jets, the associated noise levels will he significantly lower than is now the case. The anticipated 1990 aircraft mix for Palornar Airport is given below: 60 Single Engine 75% Twin Engine 22% Business Jet 36 Traffic Yoise Tlie major long tern effect of the project on the acoustical environment of the area will result from traffic on surfact streets. Tlie pronosed expansion, based on n factor of 30 trips per 1000 square feet of buildin2 space, (see .Ippenclix D) 89 will generate approximately 13,496 round trips daily. In con- junction with other developments nearby, traffic volumes on nearby surface streets may create acoustical levels which are incompatible with noise sensitive developments (such as residential land use) in the absence of sound attenuation. Table 4-7 depicts the relationships between design noise level and land use patterns. The proposed development is compatible with the anticipated acoustic environment. Aesthetics As pointed out in Section 111, the development parcel is at present a highly disrupted and unproductive tract of land. It is not an asset to its immediate surroundings nor has it unique or special visual characteristics to sustain an identity of its own. The proposed expansion is thus a beneficial impact in that it will complement existing structures and as such will enhance the overall integrity of the north Carlsbad commercial activity core. Although no architectural plans or conceptual renderings are available for inclusion in this EIR, it is felt that a pictorial essay of the existing Plaza will more than adequately convey the aesthetic ambience of the expanded mall. Thus Figures 4-5 and 4-6 (A through D), taken on June 15, 1975, present Plaza Camino Real from a variety of perspectives -- at a distance, at close range, from within the mall and from without. As can be seen, the exterior is modern, relatively low to the ground, and angular in appearance; little area has been devoted to land- [ 90 Table 4-7 Land Use Cat ego ry A B Design Noise Level/Land Use Relationships 72 Design Noise Level L10 Description of Land Use Category 60 dBA (Exterior) Tracts of lands in which serenity and quite are of ex- traordinary significance and ' serve an important public need, and where the preservation of those qualities is essential. if the area is to continue to serve its intended purpose. Such areas could include amphi- theatres, particular parks or spaces which are dedicated or recognized by appropriate local officials for activities requiring special qualities of serenity and quiet. 70 dBA (Exterior) C 75 dBA (Exterior) Residences, motels, hotels, public meeting rooms, schools, churches, libraries, hospitals, picnic areas, recreation areas, playgrounds, active sports areas, and parks. Developed lands, properties or activities not included in categories A and B above. 91 i i I I c r ! I c I t I I \ I 92 I I I i I r scaping. The Plot Plan, Figure 2-4, suggests that these charac- teristics will be carried through to the new buildings. Indoors, however, there is great emphasis upon landscaping, and the effect is highly appealing. In addition, the interior conveys a feeling which is at once intimate and spacious. Other notable features of the interior design include an artful blend of textures and materials (i.e., tile, brick, glass, concrete, etc.) and the skillful use of color. The level of aesthetic appeal set by the existing Plaza will serve as a model for the proposed expansion area; it thus seems reasonable to conclude that the expanded Plaza Camino Real will continue to be an asset to the commercial sector of the City of Carlsbad. In closing, however, it is suggested that areas devoted to exterior landscaping be increased. This would complete the visual appeal of Plaza Camino Real. Energy Conservation The expansion of Plaza Camino Real, if approved, will generate additional demand upon all energy resources associated with urban development. Among the uses associated with urban commercial development will be travel to and from the Plaza (employees and patrons alike), interior and exterior lighting, heating and air conditioning within the mall and mall shops, physical plant opera- tion, merchandise demonstration and a wide assortment of related activities. Most of these are amenable to conservation techniques (especially of the "waste not want not" variety) although historically the incentives have been insufficiently ComPelling- In the future, however, the cost of energy supplies will become increasingly onerous. Because the comsumers of energy in the expanded Plaza 97 will most often not be responsible for paying the bills, it may be worthwhile to establish -- at the outset -- employee incentive programs designed to encourage thrift in energy consumption. At an even earlier stage,, the management can facilitate this effort through thoughtful selection of fixtures and the enlightened use of natural energy supplies, Le. windows oriented in such a way as to capture sunlight without glare. In these rooms, arti- ficial illumination can be adjusted to low levels throughout the day and increased during evening hours. One final thought deserving mention relates to the climate of Carlsbad. Perhaps air conditioning is not truly ."o. necessary if the builders and architects work together to utilize sea breeze ventilation instead. This could represent not only an innovative and pace-setting design but also a real financial savings in the years ahead. Table 4-8, below, summarizes the consumption rates of natural supplies which are expected to result: Table 4-8 Energy Consumption Rates Anticipated Yearly Consumption Rate 8,817,668 KWH Resource Electricity Natural Gas Gas o 1 ine a. miles driven annually b. miles/gallon (average) 5,398,572 cu ft 1,705,168 gallons 22,167,180 13 mpg I 98 Actually, these figures are a bit high, because the annual mileage is calculated for 365 days whereas the Plaza will be closed during certain holidays. In addition, by 1980 most automobiles should be getting better gas mileage than 13 miles per gallon. However, the figures may be used as "worst case" estimates if these provisos are kept in mind. 99 100 1 I S I I i- i t'. ,i /? SECTION V *. 0 ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS! -ffl rY i PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT A Geology and Soils Adverse Settlement Due to variations in the underlying soil conditions, relatively large differences in settlement could occur across the site. Computed settlement within the project area may be as great as 34 inches. 5 Slope Stability The landslide evident in the exposed cut face south of the project site is apparently stable. However, a more detailed investigation of this feature and a further assess- ment of its effect on the stability of the cut slope, particularly considering potential seismic loading, may be warranted at the time of the final soil investigation. Erosion/Siltation Removal of the existing vegetation on the development site will lead to a short-term increase in erosional potential during the grading phase of the project. Seismicity It is quite possible that the Plaza Camino Real development will be subjected to at least one moderate to large earthquake during its design life, with resultant ground shaking equivalent to Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII. Because the project will be elevated on compacted fill above the weak, 101 saturated lagoon sediments, it is not likely that seismically- I induced ground or soil failure would accompany this ground shaking. IIowever, these factors should be further explored in the final soil investigation report for the project. Hydro logy Water Ou a 1 i tv Water quality degradation resulting from urban run- off was discussed in the previous section. At present, the only methods of reducing the severity of this environmental effect are to process such runoff in a treatment plant or attempt to remove many of the pollutants by intensive clean-up techniques. B IOLOC; I CAL EYV IROXME?JT Adverse biological impacts associated with the expansion of the Plaza Camino Real shopping center are as follows: 1. The loss of hunting territory for a few raDtorial birds and the concomitant loss of the resident wild- life population composed primarily of rodents. 2. The incremental effect of urban drainage on Euena Vista Creek and Buena Vista Lagoon. 3. The effect of noise from heavy equipment operation during the initial construction phase on wildlife patterns and reproductive processes in the surround- ing open space areas (eucalyFtus grove, Buena Vista Creek, Ruena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve). 4. The effect of sediment transport into the lagoon and associated drainage during the on-site heavy equip- nent operation. IIUb!AN ENVIRON?,!ENT - Archeological, Paleontological and flistorical 3esources The absence of archeological, paleontological and historical resources on the expansion siteeliminates the potential for adverse impacts in this category. i i 102 I I .., Public Services and Utilities Municipal Services Demand for public services will incrementally increase as a result of the proposed Plaza expansion. . Being an expansion of commercial facilities, this project will involve fewer law enforcement, fire prevention or health care problems than are usually seen in other types of development. Educational Facilities No adverse impacts upon educational facilities are anticipated in conjunction with this project. Public Utilities Demand for utility services will also increase as a result of development. The following table summarizes the additional'demands specifically related to the Plaza expansion. Gas (mil cu ft/yr) Electricity (mil KW hr/yr) Solid Waste (tons/yr) Water (mil gal/yr) Total Project Completion 5.40 8.82 821.25 33.12 Sewage (mil gal/yr) 30.11 Population Growth and Housing The project will have a negligible direct impact on pop- ulation growth and housing in Carlsbad. The indirect influences which will be generated are, however, more extensive. In particular, the project will result in impacts upon neighbor- ing cities which merit intercommunity discussion. 103 Economics i I The only negative economic aspects of the proposed expansion related to the City of Carlsbad involve a capture of a maximum of $1.5 million in sales from other retail outlets in the of Carlsbad including the CBD. The taxable retail sales and related revenues of surrounding areas which comprise the primary, secondary and tertiary market areas of Plaza Camino Real will be adversely affected to varying degrees. Traffic/Transportation and Circulation Parking lot circulation on the south side of Plaza Camino Real will interfere with through traffic along Marron Road if modifications are not incorporated into the Plot Plan which would segregate on-site circulation from through traffic. The extension of Marron Road to adjoin Jefferson Street will exacerbate existing congestion in the vicinity of the duck landing. Inasmuch as these problems relate to parking and the safety of resident ducks, an alternate circulation scheme is recommended (see Section VI, Mitigation Measures, and Appendix D> Noise Adverse impacts upon the acoustical environment will be associated initially, and most intensely, with the construction process. Subsequent occupancy of the Plaza will generate noise levels somewhat higher than those now present but well below the I levels associated with construction. Over the first years of 104 operation, noise levels associated with traffic will steadily increase and the baseline acoustic environment will be permanently elevated Aesthetics The current plot plan indicates that exterior landscaping will continue to play but a minor role in outdoor design. As such, the barren expanses of the parking areas will detract from the aesthetic quality of the Plaza exterior. Energy Conservation The project will place an additional burden upon numerous energy resources during both the construction and operational t phases. 105 1 i i I f 1 1 i I I I- i & i. 1. I i i I 1 106 SECTION VI MEASURES TO MITIGATE ADVERSE EFFECTS I- PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT Geology and Soils Adverse Set t 1 ement In order to avoid adverse settlement of facilities on the project site, the area underlain by soft, compressible soils could be surcharged in a manner similar to that used in 61,62 the existing shopping center. Using this approach, buildings could be supported on conventional spread footings established in the compacted fill. Since up to 20 feet of compacted foundation fill was placed on the property in 1966, much if not all of the necessary pre-consolidation may have occurred. This possibility should be evaluated by the project site engineer prior to the establishment of specific foundation designs. Should it be found that sufficient preconsolidation has not been achieved, additional surcharge should be placed on the foundation fill, to remain for a period of time to be determined by conditions of the underlying compressible soils. If the surcharge is required, it should be placed within that portion of the property underlain by the soft soils. The top of the surcharge fill should extend at least SO feet beyond the approximate limit of the soft soils. 107 It is also feasible to support those buildings under- lain by compressible soils on driven pilings, with surcharging 6 required only as necessary to provide improved floor support. For preliminary planning purposes, it is estimated that the piles can support a structural load of 50 tons, and the estimated pile length required for this loading will range from 50 feet near the boundary of the soft soils up to 80 feet at the northwest corner of the site. 6 Slope Stability It is recommended that further detailed soil investigations be conducted on the project site. Should such investigations indicate that slope stability problems are associated with the cut slope south of the site, it may be necessary to re-excavate the cut to a flatter angle or buttress the toe of the old land- slide to prevent any future movement. In any event, the recommendations of the soils engineer should be followed. Erosion/Siltation Erosion and siltation problems on the development property will be restricted to the north and west embankment slopes. Rip-rap and concrete drainages along these slopes, combined with planting, can reduce erosion and siltation significantly. Appendix E provides a list of suggested erosion control vegetation. These measures have been employed very 10 8 c r I T i successfully on the existing shopping center to the east. The more severe erosion and siltation problem is that associated with the cut slopes south of the development property. These slopes,which are badly rilled,should be prepared for planting, and sediment which has collected at the base of the slopes and in the brow ditches should be removed. The runoff from the brow ditches should be diverted in a drainage ditch to the south and west along the development property. In order to reduce the potential of transport of sediment in the existing drainage along the west boundary of the property, some method of energy dissipation of runoff from the brow ditches should be employed. This could be in the form of boulders placed in the drainage ditch near the inflow areas. In several years, bottom land vegetation will tend to anchor the existing sediment and therefore significantly reduce sediment inflow in the lagoon. Seismicity The design of project structures to withstand seismic shaking should tentatively follow the latest (1973) IJniform Building Code or other more restrictiverequirements of the City of Carlsbad. Since the proposed buildings are not considered "critical structures" and are not over four stories in height, design and construction specifications based on site specific ground response spectra are probably not warranted. Should detailed soil investigations indicate that a sig- nificant potential for seismically-induced soil or ground failure exists at the site, special foundation design will be necessary to alleviate the Fossibility of any adverse eFfects. 109 Hydro logy Water Quality Treatment of urban runoff to reduce pollutants is i costly and frequently ineffective. The more realistic approach toward mitigating this problem would be to adopt a rigid program of clean-up techniques. The dispersal of street surface con- taminants can be mitigated in a number of ways. The following i f items, taken directly from Water Pollution Aspects of Street i Surface Contaminants,- of this problem.and should be implemented, as warranted through the City. provide; a practical approach to the treatment a. Operator Training Street cleaning operations are generally focused on controlling those types of contaminants and debris which are a nuisance from the standpoint of aesthetics or public safety. The finer matter, shown here to be of importance as a water pollutant, is seldom pursued. Although conventional street sweeping equipment is not particularly effective in collecting fines, with special attention on the part of operators a considerable amount of the material normally "missed" could be collected. Tt is recommended tha* poking lot and street cteaning equipment operators be trained not onty in how thsir equipment can best be opsratsd (;.e., vehicte speed, broom spesd, broom position, etc.J but also in what materia2 needs to be removed and where this is commonty Zocatsd. Much of the fins material which normally lays.in the gutters could be picked up if the opsrators had an appreciation for its importance retativs to water poZZution effects. b. Effort This study has shown that the removal effectiveness of the dust and dirt fraction of street surface contaminants is a function of the effort expended in street cleaning operations, and to achieve a greater removal effectiveness requires several times the effort normally expended in sweeping operations. Effort is measured in equipment min/Z000 sq. ft. and effort can be increased by operating at a lower speed or sweeping more often. 110 I f' It is recornmended that increased effort be expended on parking area and street cZeaning operations. Operating speeds shouZd not exceed five miles per hour unZess operating on high-speed arteriaZs. c. Street Maintenance Pavement type and condition were both found to have a substantial effect on the total amount of loose particulate matter found on streets. All-concrete streets were typically much cleaner than all-asphalt streets: mixed concrete/ashpalt streets were inter- mediate. Streets in good condition were substan- tially cleaner than those in fair or poor condition. These findings are as one might expect, although the specific reasons (cause/effect relationships) have not been established, i.e., the streets could be cleaner because they are easier to sweep or be- cause they themselves generate less material. Whatever the reason, it appears as though there are distinct benefits to keeping streets in good condition. When the material for paving is being seZected, it is recommended that this difference in asphaZt and concrete be taken into consideration, along with the factors norma 2 Zy included in such decisions. d. Equipment Adjustments A survey of equipment parameters (i.e., main broom speed, strike or patterns, main broom pressure, gutter broom position, etc.) in various cities showed a wide range of operational characteristics. The effectiveness of sweeping can be improved by proper adjustments of main broom, gutter broom, hydraulic systems, dust deflectors, elevator mechanisms, hopper operations, etc. It is recommended that routine maintenance schedules include proper adjustments to sweeper operating parameters as specified in Manufacturer's, Owner's and Operating WanuaZs. e. Vacuum Wands Recent developments in street maintenance equipment have provided public works operations with a new type of equipment for collecting loose leaves and litter via manually guided, truck-mounted, vacuum "wands". Such devices or modifications thereof may be applicable to collecting street surface contaminants from areas normally rendered in- accessible by parked cars. 111 It is recommended that use of vacuum wand units in coZZecting street surface contaminants be considered. BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT Measures to mitigate adverse biological impacts due to the expansion of the Plaza Camino Real shopping center are as follows: 1. The grounds will be swept six days a week to remove litter and some of the contaminants associated with urban runoff to prevent their dispersal into Buena Vista Creek and subsequently Buena Vista Lagoon. Desilting basins would further augment this effort. 2. The effects of intrusive noise on surrounding wildlife areas (specifically Buena Vista Lagoon Ecological Reserve) due to heavy on-site construction activity can be reduced by limiting such activity to.norma1 working hours when the ambient is highest. Earthmoving and associated heavy construction activity should be performed in late summer after the wildlife nesting period and before the winter migratory feeding period begins in the lagoon. Limiting access by heavy trucks, etc., to the site from Camino Real via Marron Road would also mitigate the noise effects to wildlife which would occur if heavy equipment entered from the west via Jefferson Street. 3. The effect of sediment load from the site on the adjacent creek and the lagoon can be limited by the prompt landscaping of fill slopes adjacent to the creek and the eventual landscaping of the terraced, cut slopes on the site (see also discussion under Geology and Soils, Mitigating Measures). 4. It is recommended that thought be given to the use of more landscaping on the site than now is planted around the existing Plaza. This will enhance the architectural design and soften the overall visual impact of Plaza Camino Real. Heavy landscaping will be required between Flarron Road and the parking lot as per the Coastal Commission permit Archaeological, Paleontological and Historical Resources The lack of any archaeological resources or materials on or near the proposed expansion site precludes the necessity for any further mitigating measures or actions. The implementation of the proposed project will in no way impair, endanger or destroy any known archaeological resources or materials nor will the pro- 112 rl I ject indirectly affect any known archaeological resources in the immediate vicinity of the project. Public Services and Utilities bfitigation measures concerned with reducing impacts to police, fire and health care services are related to basic crime prevention techniques and a useful identification system. Basic crime prevention techniques which are recommended for incor- poration into the project design include increased security and well-lit parking lots, particularly those to be used by employees. In addition, areas of common use throughout the Plaza should be highly observable so that 'a constant surveillance by shoppers and retailers rather than police or security persons is made possible. Such maximization of "defensible space'' is an efficient deterrent to crimes committed in areas of high-use (i.e., purse-snatching, robbery, etc.). A positive identification system for buildings in commercial centers offers immense assistance to police, fire, and health care services, all of whom must operate as fast as possible. .I viable method of building numbering, which may include numbers on the roofs, would speed such service to highly-dense, often difficult- to-find areas and are suggested for use at Plaza Carnino Real. In relation to utilities, energy saving measures are ..". \ ii summarized in a later section. Population Growth and fIousing dA! ;'%% Few practical measures are available to ninimize population 'j, growth in north San Diego County. The denial of projects such as the Plaza Camino Real expansion would certainly reduce the incentive but most likely the result would be chaotic, ratherr' Lc, r' 113 than well planned, population increases. The more subtle conflicts arising from intercommunity disparities in economic well being are even less amenable to solution although the creation of a forum for frank and meaningful discussion may well illuminate unseen possibilities. Economics Regarding the capture of business from other retail outlets within the City, it should be pointed out that the expanded center, through increased penetration of its market areas, will bring additional shoppers into Carlsbad. This in turn will very r 1L i ( i :\ i 't $) 5, ,I likely result in additional sales at other retail facilities in - -_ ~ the City, Additionally, regarding the CBD, the following measures Several recommendations have been made within the Land Use Element of the General Plan,69 and the Inner City Study70 regarding redevelopment projects and improvements within the CBD. These improvements include such diverse features as beautification, creation of a mall within a village-like atmosphere, easier public access and parking, enhancement of the City's historical heritage, coordina- tion of architectural standards, and the like. Given the City's additional bonding capacity through expansion of Plaza Camino Real, efforts should now be initiated with the help of citizen and business committees, to prioritize those activities and begin implementation. The possibility of establishing a shuttle bus service between Plaza Camino Real and the CBD has been previously suggested. Plans for implementation should now begin. The point was previously made that corporate headquarters or regional offices would tend to locate in Carlsbad, because of environmental, rather than locationa ad- vantages. It is felt that the creation of an Amtrak stop in Carlsbad (despite the limited Amtrak schedule) would improve access to the CBD from more distant locations and, in theprocess, enhance the CBD's renewal efforts. Likewise, creation of a transit system with frequent stops in Carlsbad would almost surely guarantee its 114 i i I 4 .. success. While these measures are well beyond the purview of either the May Store Shopping Center organi- zation or the City, the advantages of implementing such stops cannot be ignored. Traffic/Transportation and Circulation It is recommended that on-site circulation in parking areas be segregated from through traffic along Marron Road when this route is extended to Jefferson Street. One possible solution would be to decrease the width of Marron Road to provide for a small interior loop in the parking area. A second and perhaps more feasible alternative would be to make south-bound rows (every other row in the Plaza) a bit shorter and to use the vacated parking slots for interior circulation. It is also recommended that the existing two-lane Jefferson Street roadway along the lagoon be realigned somewhat so that it "T's" into Marron Road (see Figure 6-1). This would not only im- prove through traffic operations but would also correct existing parking and duck safety problems at the duck landing. Noise Those acoustic impacts associated with'the construction phase can be reduced in severity if operations are conducted during hours when the existing mall is closed, or perhaps during periods of low activity. However, even with the best scheduling it will be virtually impossible to eliminate the temporary distractions associated with construction activity. Subsequent occupancy of the expanded Plaza will attract the major long-term source of ambient noise level increases, namely traffic to and from the site. No effective sound attenuation measures are available inasmuch as the vehicles are privately owned and subject only to limited control. If some form 115 - I CD aa L of transit is utilized, conceivably traffic volumes would be reduced and thereby noise levels as well. This is discussed in greater depth under Energy Conservation. Aes the t ics It is recommended that additional area be devoted to out- door landscaping. This will greatly enhance the visual impact, from the exterior, of Plaza Camino Real. Energy Conservation Energy conserving techniques may be applied to a wide variety of activities which will be associated with the proposed expansion. And, although the initial transition is often costly, over the long run significant savings can be realized. The suggestions which follow represent only a small sampling of the measures which are available for use. Utilities Natural Gas and Electricity Much of the gas and electricity consumed by Plaza Camino Real will be devoted to heating and cooling the mall and individual stores. IBM has developed a computer which monitors these systems; the computer switches off blower motors when they are not required and thereby reduces peak demand and total power consumption. The system already has been successfully initiated in several shopping malls. 71 Water The use of low water volume toilet fixtures is encouraged as a measure to both conserve water supplies and reduce total sewage generation. These fixtures consume up to one-half the 117 i water required by more conventional toilets. Solid Waste The current system of individual trashcans placed nightly in front of each store is costly and highly inefficient. Two possible measures to improve such service arel) the provision of space for and installation of trash bins or 2) the installa- tion of a conveyor belt-packer system. General Builders, architects and tenants should be encouraged to seek, within reason, appliances, lighting and space heating methods designed to reduce internal load factors. Traffic and Transportation As pointed out in Section IV, gasoline consumption associated with trips to and from the Plaza will approximate 22 million gallons per year. Serious thought should be given to developing a transit system for the Plaza. Such a system need not exclude the services now provided by the Oceanside Transit System; indeed, the services can complement one another, Among the options worth consideration is an employee bus. Employees alone will consume an estimated 300 gallons of gas Fer dav. Inasmuch as this tyne of service is currently being used by other large employment groups it should be relatively simple to gather the information needed to initiate the pro2rnm before the Plaza construction is completed. Extending the bus service to existing Plaza employees would double the benefits to be gained. iZt the same time, such a yrogram would also: 1. Free parking areas €or use by patrons and additional 118 landscaping, 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Reduce vehicular congestion during peak periods. Reduce pollutant emissions associated w sources. traffic th mobi Set a fine example for future developments. Serve as an act of goodwill toward neighboring communities whose residents work at the Plaza. Facilitate the transition from a personal to a public transit mode riliich will inevitably occur at some point during the Plaza's life span. e 119 120 SECTION VI1 ALTERNATIVES I \ I,- NO PROJECT The no project alternative would retain the property in its present land use and physical condition. As such, the impacts which have been identified as accompanying the develop- ment process would be avoided, and the conditions outlined as existing at the present time would be sustained. Inasmuch as the land is highly disturbed and does not support any productive natural systems, there is little to be said for retaining it as is. Indeed, should the no project alternative be deemed suitable, it is hopeful that some form of groundcover can be planted, or other measures taken, to restore the land to a more productive capacity. The no project alternative would also obviate the beneficial impacts which would accrue as a result of the proposed expansion. Thus, the anticipated revenues would not be realized, nor would employment opportunities be created. If the no project alternative is adopted, it is probable that a similar project (or projects) will be initiated in another area, quite likely in an adjoining community. Nhile lacking the strength and centrality of Plaza Camino Real, such an alternative would probably give wider distribution to potential revenues throughout the north County region. 121 ALTERNATE PROJECT LOCATION Should the project be implemented in a location other than that proposed, many of the impacts associated with it would be quite similar to those identified in this EIR. Certain notable exceptions exist: 1. The advantages to be gained by creating a primary nucleus of regional commercial activity in the north Carlsbad area would in all probability be lost -- unless the alternate location- was chosen at some nearby point (in which case the rationale for an alternate location becomes highly specious). 2. The proximity of two major circulation routes would be difficult to achieve in another location. This site appears to be the most effective from a regional urban services standpoint. . -. ALTERVATE PROJECT DESIGN Alternatives in the proposed design, such as building layout, roadway and parking area locations, internal design or landscaping are indeed possible but more appropriately addressed during the design stages of the planning process. Unfortunately insufficient data is currently available to make reasonable assessaents of the. proposed design. ALTERNATE LAND USE The land use categories, including residential, recreational and industrial development, appear to be inappropriate on this site for a variety of reasons. The parcel is too close to the existing Plaza to permit the privacy sought in residential use; and industrial development would be wholly out of character with existing and planned development. A recreational facility may be more reasonable but the site would require extensive improvements to become aesthetically valuable and the costs -- both 122 ?: t in rehabilitating the land and loss of anticipated commercial revenues -- would be prohibitive. All three options are in conflict with the City's formal land use designation. Alternate Commercial Allocation One final alternative which remains is the possibility of segregating the regional commercial area from local commercial services to a greater degree than now proposed. To visualize this thesis one might contrast the highly regional focus of a store such as the May Company with that of a smaller shop such as See's Candies. The major proposition of this alternative is to retain major tenants of the expanded Plaza Camino Real within that complex but encourage the smaller shops to congregate else- where throughout the City. The impacts of this alternative are highly complex -- and more than a little speculative without the strength of in-depth economic analysis. However, both positive and adverse impacts can be broadly stated. If the smaller shops were to relocate in certain localities (such as the downtown area, or nearby the Palomar Airport Industrial area) -- assuming a complementary range of services -- such a move may well serve to reduce traffic noise and air quality de- gradation. This savings may be realized through greater accessibility, or favorable juxtaposition of services such that the shopper could satisfy a variety of chores in one trip. Also, the impact of urban development would be distributed over a wide area and thus less concentrated in one spot. However, such a move may sub- stantially weaken the drawing power of Plaza Camino Real within 123 the primary market area, and possibly beyond. In this case, not only would the strength of a nuclear employment and revenue base be jeopardized, but also the auxiliary developments which, to a certain degree, depend upon it. The impacts of this option would rest heavily on the specific alternative proposed. If well conceived, such a plan may create an integrated hierarchy of services in which each level reinforces and is reinforced by the others. The efficiency of such a system inherently guarantees a reduction in those adverse impacts associated with urban sprawl, i.e. noise, air and water pollution, waste of energy resources, etc. But if this elective were implemented on a piecemeal basis, the potential losses are equally great. In summary, this alternative is viable and deserving of attention. Because of its innovative nature, the repercussions (both adverse and beneficial) are largely unseen. Should the option be deemed worthy of further exploration, it is recommended that in-depth analyses be conducted to more fully explore the potential avenues by which the plan may be best implemented. At such time as these analyses have been completed it will be possible to make a reasonable estimate of the associated impacts. 124 SECTION VI11 TOPICAL ISSUES I A. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LOCAL SHORT-TERM USE OF MAN’S ENVIRONMENT AND THE MA INTENANCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF LONG-TERM PRO DUCT IV I T Y The proposed project will result in disruptive short-term environmental effects due to the construction process, but these will be temporary and largely mitigated as indicated in Section vr The long-term effect of the proposed Plaza Camino Real expansion will be the transformation of a roughly 33-acre site from vacant land to a major retail services center. Attendant with this process, the physical, biological and human environmental characteristics _” will be impacted as discussed in Section IV, and certain adverse effects will accompany the process as described in Section V. The development will effectively eliminate the site from any future alternate land use. ... At the same time, the expansion will all but insure the long-term economic stability of the City of Carlsbad. The enlarged Plaza, coupled with the newly created automobile sales plaza near Cannon Road and 1-5, will constitute the major corner- stones of the City’s future economic well-being. 125 I B. ANY IRREVERSIBLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES WHICH WOULD BE INVOLVED IN THE PROPOSED ACTION SH OULD IT BE IMPLEMENTED ! The expansion of Plaza Camino Real will commit the property to intensive urban-commercial use for an indefinite and essen- tially permanent period of time. The project will require the commitment of manpower, capital, building materials and energy resources. Many of these supplies are in short supply and some, such as natural gas, are dangerously depleted. The fuels used I 1 I I by employees and patrons alike as they travel to and from the I I site are also scarce and threaten to become prohibitive in cost. Thus, the project is somewhat committed to a mode which may soon be outdated; despite this fact, no truly innovative solutions to the # I -- - i transit problem are proposed in conjunction with the expansion planned. I More significant, perhaps, is the influence the Plaza will .- have upon land use in surrounding areas. This project will pre- judice the pattern of commercial development over a wide area 1. z for many years to come. The expanded Plaza will enjoy a regional consumer base, drawing shoppers not only from Carlsbad but i also Oceanside, Vista and, to a lesser degree, Escondido. As I a result, the ability of these cities to invest in and reap the I benefits of similar developments will be substantially reduced. i It is an uncomfortable and yet undeniable fact that many of the gains which will accrue to the City of Carlsbad as a result of this development will come at the expense of nearby communities. , 126 f I L C. THE GROWTH-INDUCING IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED ACTIVITY UPON THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND/OR THE COMMUNITY The expanded Plaza Camino Real will generate employment for an additional 900 people, and provide retail services capable of satisfying regional consumer demand. What is now vacant and non- productive land will become an economically stable element of ' the community, complementary to surrounding land uses. Although major expansion of public facilities and roadways will not occur as a specific, direct result of the Plaza's expansion, there will be a cumulative increase in demand for . such services and improvements. Thus, in combination with near- by developments, the project will tend to induce growth and generate expansion of these facilities. The proposed e.xpansion will strengthen the commercial activity core which is now anchored by Plaza Camino Real. In providing a centrally located and aesthetically pleasing retail complex, it wizl- tend fo s,&$aulate residential growth in areas nearby. The expanded Plaza will also stimulate additional commercial growth eager to share in the consumer drawing power established by the Plaza. The creation of roughly 900 jobs will serve to induce (as well as accommodate) population growth in the north County region. Through the economic multiplier, the expanded Plaza will result in a demand for goods and services which in turn will attract others hoping to meet that demand. Hence, the growth-inducing I-<L. - 4s 127 iqpact of the expanded Plaza is sizeable in terms of future planning efforts. ---- Another growth-inducing impact of this project relates to the considerable revenues which the expanded Plaza will generate. Through these funds, the City will have a reliable source of income which may be allocated to unrelated projects, such as downtown commercial redevelopment,that will in themselves tend to spur new growth and expansion. It must be born in mind, however, that in many ways this project is a product of previous growth inducements. Indeed, the population boom of north San Diego County is in full force, and the steadily expanding population base is a powerful stimulus for projects such as this. By the same token, the project will in turn attract additional growth as described above; the re- lationship is cyclical and synergistic. In summary, the proposed expansion of Plaza Camino Real will induce commercial growth in its immediate vicinity and will indirectly contribute to the growth of utility and public services as well as general and overall population growth in the Tri-City (Carlsbad, Oceanside and Vista) region. It will accommodate consumer demand for a number of years to come and will potentiate auxiliary improvements throughout the City of Carlsbad during its life span. 128 P n. THE BOUNDARIES OF THE AREA WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE PROPOSE D ACTIVITY This section offers an indication of the boundaries of those areas which may be directly affected by the expansion of Plaza Camino Real. PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT The following adverse impacts, if they occur, will be limited in scope to the site boundaries. 1. Relatively large differences in settlement due to variations in underlying soil conditions. 2. Increased potential for erosion during the grading phase. If siltation occurs as a result of erosion, it will tend to accumulate in Buena Vista Creek, already subjgct to_mces&ve silt.tion as a result of upstream development. Surface water quality will tend to be degraded by the addition of pollutants from both stationary and mobile sources. Seismic activity would impact shoppers and employees drawn from the region. The possibility of landsliding on the exposed cut face to the south could impact motorists entering or exiting the Plaza from the south. Dust and fumes generated during construction will create adverse air quality conditions in the immediate locale. 129 Regional air quality will suffer cumulative degradation resulting from increased motor vehicle traffic as well as the on-site consumption of natural gas and electricity. BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT The addition of landscaping will beneficially affect the property boundaries from a biological viewpoint. The project will incrementally decrease the hunting territory available to a few raptorial species. Rodent populations now occupying the site will either migrate to adjacent property or perish during the construction phase. Urban runoff from the completed expansion will accelerate ._ - the artificial enrichment (eutrophication) of Buena Vista Lagoon. Erosion of the fill now occupying the site, and subsequent \ -. transport into the lagoon, will be eliminated. Thus sediment input to the lagoon will be incrementally decreased. Heavy equipment used during the construction phase may create acoustical impacts sufficient to temporarily disrupt wildlife activities in Buena Vista Creek, the eastern poation of the lagoon, and northern portions of the Hosp eucalyptus grove. HUMAN ENVIRONMENT The project will provide an attractive and well-rounded shopping facility able to accommodate consumer demands on a regional bas is. The employment opportunities generatedby the expansion will primarily benefit residents of Carlsbad,Oceanside and Vista. Through 130 ! I I i 1 f I 1 I I ! .: 1 I i I I I b I.. 1: i t I , I the I I . :I I- economic multiplier, the jobs will create new demands. Inasmuch as the projectwill represent a handsome net gain to the City of Carlsbad (revenue minus costs), funds will be available to - .- --- - - __ meet not only the local demands generated by the Plaza but also support City-wide projects on a long-term basis. The project will place an increased load on public services and utilities as outlined below: 1. Police. Minor increase in surveillance. 2. Fire. Pgg-ential for disaster exceeds current service capabilities. Expansion of services is indicated al- though no specific plans are yet formulated. 3 f- ’ will impact nearby school districts without concomitant 3. Education. Increased labor force and auxiliary growth iL.xevenue gain. i 4. Natural Gas. Supplies to be provided without difficulty 5. Electricit . Supplies to be provided by San Diego by San Diego Gas and Electric Company. dctric Company. resources and growing demand throughout the country, In response to dwindling --fuel supplies may become marginally available in _future -ygaTK- - . 6. Solid Waste. Project will hasten theneedto locate a new landfill site. -. -- 7. Tele hone. Extension of existing underground facilities hquired to serve the expanded Plaza. 8. Water. Extension of facilities may be required to serve the site. 9. Sewage. Connection with existing pipelines will be easily accommodated. The generation of additional motor vehicle traffic as a result of the proposed expansion will increase traffic volumes upon nearby arterial roadways and, to a lesser but still considerable extent, the entire circulation network linking 131 i Carlsbad with Oceanside, Vista and Escondido. Although the planned imporvements should alleviate congestion upon these routes, the vehicular increases will contribute directly to the deteriora- tion of the local and regional air cells and will add incrementally to the baseline acoustical environment. Aesthetic alterations will impact the immediate property but will complement the visual character of the surrounding area. The project is aesthetically congruent with existing and planned developments. 132 I I I I F r i SECTION IX REFERENCES The following references include not only published documents, reports and letters, but also telephone and personal conversations that served as the basis for factual statements made within the report. It thus serves as both a bibliography and a list of persons or organizations consulted, in conformance with State and City Guidelines. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. a. City of Carlsbad, Contents of Environmental Impact Reports; Revised February 5, 1975. .> State of California, Guidelines for Implementation of the California Environmental Quality Act of 1970 (with recent amendments). hfamaux, John, Liaison for the May Company Project, telecon with Sandra Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 6, 1975. Wilson, Kenneth L., "Geologic Map of a Portion of the San Luis Rey Quadrangle, San Diego County, California", U.C. Riverside M.S. Thesis; 1972. LeROy Crandall and Associates, "Report of Foundation Investigation, Proposed Shopping Center, El Camino Real near Vista Freeway, Carlsbad, California, for Plaza Camino Real"; August 12, 1966. LeRoy Crandall and Associates ,"Report of Supplemental Soil Studies, Phase I1 Development, Proposed Shopping Center, El Camino Real near the Vista Freeway, Carlsbad, California, for Plaza Camino Real"; June 9, 1967. City of Carlsbad, "Preliminary Geologic and Seismic Safety Element"; November 1974. Moore, G.W., Off-Shore Extension of the Rose Canyon Fault, San Diego, U.3. Geological Survey Professional Paper 300-C; 972. 133 9. Weber, F.H., Jr., Geology and Mineral Resources of San Diego County, California, County Report 3: California Division of Mines and Geology; 1963. 10. County of San Diego, Environmental Development Agency, Integrated Regional Environmental Management Project, Natural Resou5ces Inventory (a series of published, reports and extensive unpublished file data on San Diego County environmental conditions); undated 11. California Division of Mines and Geology, Urban Geology, Master Plan for California, Bulletin 198; 1973. 12. State of California, Water Resources Control Board, Water Quality Control Plan (Interim), San Diego, Basin 9; June 1971, 13. 14. Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers, Flood Plain Inforrnation,Buena Vista Creek; July 1973. State of California, Department of Water Resources, Ground Water Occurrence and Quality: San Diego Region, Bulletin 106-2; June 1967. 15. Commander, Naval Weather Service Command, #SMOS (Summary of Meteorological Observations, Surface), Job No. 72006, Camp Pendleton, California, Prepared by Officer in Charge, Naval Weather Service Environmental Detachment, Federal Building, Asheville, North Carolina; March 1973. 16. 17. Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, Meteorological Data; undated. California Native Plant Society, Inventory of Rare and Endangered Vascular Plants of California, Edited by IV. Robert Powell, Special Publication No. 1; 1974. la. 19. 20. California Department of Fish and Game, At the Crossroads: A Report on California's Rare Fish and Wildlife; 1974. Craig, Alan M., Survey of California Least Tern Nesting Sites, Department of Fishand Game, State of California; 1971. Bender, Kristen, California Least Tern Population and Nesting Survey, Department of Fishad Game, State of California; 1974. Burns, William, Ecological Report for San Diego, San Diego Natural His tory Museum; 19 71. 21. 22. Bury, R. Bruce, Status Report on California's Threatened Amphibians and Reptiles, California Department of Fish and Game, Inland Fisheries Administrative Report No. 72-2; 1971. 134 I 2 3. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30 . 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. California Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fishing Regulations; Effective March 1, 1975. Arbib, R., The Blue List for 1975, American Birds 28(6): 971-974; 1974. Letter from Mike Evans, County of San Diego; August 1, 1974. Stebbins, G.L. and J. Major, Endemism and Speciation in the California Flora, Ecol. Monogr. 35 (1) : 1- 35 ; 1965. Stanbro, Philip W.,Buena Vista Lagoon and Its Use, M.S. Thesis, San Diego State University; 1971. 1 California Administrative Code, Division 1 of Title 14, Fish and Game Commission Actions, Natural Resources; 1974. Environmental Development Agency, Preliminary Conservation Element, San Diego County General Plan, San Diego County; June 1975. ... King, Thomas F., Michael J. Moratto and N. Nelson Leaonard 111, "Recommended Procedures for Archaeological Impact Evaluation", Archaeological Survey Laboratory, University of California, Los Angeles; 1974. Rogers, Malcolm, "The Stone Art of the San Dieguito Plateau", American Anthropologist, 31:454-67, Menasha; 1929. Rogers, Malcolm, Ancient Hunters of the Far West (Ed. by Richard F. Pourade), San Diego: Copley Press; 1966. Wallace, William, J., "A Suggested Chronology for Southern California Coastal Archaeology", Southwestern Journal of Anthropology, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 114-130; 1955. Warren, Claude N., D. Gathering Complexes o 1961 Annual Reports , Survey, Los hgeles, L. True, and Ardi f Western San Die University of Cal California; 1961. th A. go co iforn Eud UtY ia A .rey, "Ea 9- 3960- rchaeolo ,rly gical Moriarty, James R., "The San Dieguito Complex: Suggested Environmental and Cultural Relationships", Anthropological Journal of Canada. Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 1-18; 1969. True, D.L., "An Early Complex in San Diego County, California", American Antiquity, Vol. 23, No. 3, 255-263, Salt Lake City; 1959. Meighan, Prehis to 1954. Clement W., "A Late Complex in Southern Ca rytl, Southwestern Journal of Anthropology, 1 if o rnia 10:215-27; 135 3 8. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. Moriarty, James R., George Shumay and Claud Warren, "Scripps Estates Site 1 (SDi-525): A Preliminary Report on an Early Site on the San Diego Coast", 1958-1959 Annual Report, pp. 185-216. University of California Archaeological Survey, - Los Angeles; 1959.- Harding, Mabel, "La Jollan Culture',', El Museo, Vol. 1, No. 1, San Diego; 1951. Shipek, Florence, The Autobiography of Defina Cuero, Banning, California: Malkai Museum Press ; 1970. Strong, William D., "Aboriginal Society in Southern California", University of California Publications in American Archaeology and Ethnology, Vol. 26, No. 0, pp. 1-358, Berkeley; 1929. Kroeber, Alfred L., Handbook of the Indians of California, (3rd Edision) Berkeley: California Book Company; 1970. Rogers, Malcolm, "An Outline of Yuman Prehistory", Southwestern Journal of Anthropology, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 167-198; 1945. Mr. Rossal, City of Carlsbad Police Department, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 12, 1975. Chief Anear, City of Carlsbad Fire Department, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 12, 1975. Mr. Hitt, Assistant Administrator, Tri-City Hospital, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 11, 1975. Mr. Lance, Carlsbad Unified School District, telecon with Sandra Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 17, 1975. Everberg, Don, San Diego Gas and Electric Company, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 11, 1975. Van Orrt, Don, McDougal Sanitation, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 11, 1975. Breitenfeld, Howard, Pacific Telephone Company, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 12, 1975. Rogoway, Larry, Shuirman - Rogoway Engineering, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 11, 1975. Flanagan, Tim, City of Carlsbad, Engineering Department, telecon with Douglas Wood, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 11, 1975. Levander, Partridge and Anderson, Inc., Financial Impact Analysis, Expansion of Plaza Camino Real, Carlsbad, Calif- ornia; September 30, 1974. ." 'I 136 54. Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, Capsule History of Carlsbad; undated. Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, 1975 Business Directory. 55. 56. Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, Carlsbad Population Make-up ; April 1973. 57. Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation', Fundamentals and Abatement of Highway Traffic Noise; June 1973. 58. State of California, Traffic Volumes on California State Highways, District 11, Department of Transportation; 1963- 1973. 59. 60. 61. Telephone communication with Caltrans, San Diego; June 10, 19 75. r Comprehensive Planning Organization of the San Diego Region, Land Use Plan Palomar Airport; May 1974. LeRoy Crandall and Associates, "Inspection and Testing of ComDacted Fills. T.B.A. Suildinn Areas. Plaza Camino Real Shopping Center; Near El Camino-Real and Vista Freeway, Carlsbad, California, for the Plaza Camino Real"; February IS, 1968. 62. LeRoy Crandall and Associates, "Final Report, Settlement of Surcharges Area, Proposed Shopping Center, El Camino Real Near the Vista Freeway, Carlsbad, California, for Plaza Camino Real; October 2, 1968. 63. Donovan, N., "Earthquake Hazards for Buildings", Building Practices for Disaster Mitigation, Building Science Series 46, National Bureau of Standards, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington D.C.; 1973. 84. Coulter. H.W.. Waldron. H.H. and Devine, F. "Seismic and Geoiogic Siting Considerations for fiuclear Facilities", Proceedings on the Fifth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 302, Rome; 1973. 65. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Supplement No. 2 for Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Second Edition; September 1973. 66. i San Diego County Air Pollution Control District, Air - Pollution Quarterly, Annual Report; May 21, 1974. I 137 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. 81. / U.S. Department of Commerce, Environmental Sciences Services Administration (now National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- stration), Environmental Data Service, National Weather Records Center, "Tabulation 111, Daily Mixing Depth and Average Wind Speed, Station: 03131 - San Diego, California, Period of Record: 1/60 - 12/64", Asheville, N.D.; July 1968. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Water Pollution Aspects of Street Surface Contaminants; November 1972. City of Carlsbad, General Plan, Land Use Element; October 15, 1974. Duncan and Jones, A Framework for Remedial Action: The Inner City, Carlsbad, California; June 1971. Pekis, Ted, IBM Corporation (Orange County), telecon with Sandra G. Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 10, 1975. Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, Policy and Procedure Memorandum 90-2; February 8, 1973. Comprehensive Planning Organization, Transportation Noise Contours, prepared by Wyle Laboratores; November 1973. Cal Poly, Pomona, the Coastal Lagoons of San Diego County, Laboratory for Experimental Design; 1971. Weibel, S.R., Urban Drainage as a Factor in the Eutrophication. In: Eutrophication: Causes, Consequences, Correctives, Proceedings of a Symposium, National Academy ot Sciences, Washington, D.C.; 1969. Sartor, James D. and Gail Boyd, Water Pollution Aspects of Street Surface Contaminants, Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Monitoring, PAP-R2-72-081; 1972. Mr. Sanchez, The May Company, telecon with Sandra Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 5, 1975. Environmental Protection Agency, The Effects of Noise on Wildlife and Other Animals, Office of Noise Abatement and Control; 1971. Coles, Robert, Carlsbad Housing Authority, personal conversa- tion with Sandra Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; May 29, 1975. Personal conversation between Don Agatep, City of Carlsbad, John Mamaux, representing May Store Shopping Center, Inc.; and F.O. Round, Jr., WESTEC Services, Inc.; May 20, 1975. Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, Economic Data, City of Carlsbad, California, 92008; January 1975. City of Carlsbad, The General Plan; 1965. 138 s- 83. Lampman and Associates, Memorandum entitled "Brief Analysis of Three Proposed Shopping Centers"; November 13, 1973. 84. William Pereira Associates, Master Plan Report Palomar Airport; January 1, 1975. 85. Agatep, Don, Planning Director, City of Carlsbad, personal conversation with Sandra Gaffney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 10, 1975. 86. Mr. Dana Hield, City of Carlsbad Planning Department, Comments on the Preliminary Draft EIR for Plaza Camino Real Expansion; June 30, 1975. 87. Crabtree, Bob, Archaeological Researoh Incorporated, telecon with Sandra GafEney, WESTEC Services, Inc.; July 1, 1975. 88. San Diego Evening Tribune; "Carlsbad; Nice Place to live ... if you have what it takes"; January 7, 1975. 89. Mamaux, John, Representing May Store Shopping Center, Inc., telecon with Fay Round, Jr., WESTEC Services, Inc.; June 26, 1975. 4 139 APPENDIX A BIOLOGICAL INVENTORY A- 1 A- 2 APPENDIX A BIOLOGICAL INVENTORY A biological field survey was carried out to develop a bio- logical inventory of the property. Qualitative studies were made o’f birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants. The survey period accounted for 3 man-hours of observations. Sampling period: May 30, 1975 3:OO p.m. - 6:OO p.m. Observations were made throughout the entire property by car and foot. Records were kept of animals and plants sighted. Bird observations were made with the aid of 10 x 50 binoculars. Scientific nomenclature for the flora and fauna follows that of the following sources: Flora Munz, P.A. 1974. A Flora of Southern California. University of California Press, Berkeley. 1086 Po Fauna Burt, W.H. and R.P. Grossenheider. 1964. A Field Guide to the Mammals. Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston. 284 p. Peterson, Roger Tory. 1961. A Field Guide to Western Birds. Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston. 309 p. Stebbins, R.C. 1966. A Field Guide to Western Reptiles and Amphibians. Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston. 279 p. A- 3 BIOLOGICAL SPECIES LIST Dicotyledoneae Aizoaceae - Carpet-Weed Family Carpobrotus edulis Hottentot-Fig Apiaceae (Umbelliferae) - Carrot Family Foeniculum vulgare Sweet Fennel Asteraceae (Compositae) - Sunflower Family Baccharis pilularis ssp. consanguinea Baccharis glutinosa Centaurea melitensis Cotula coronopifolia Gnaphalium beneolens Haplopappus venetus ssp. vernms Western Ragweed Coyote Brush Mule Fat Tocalote Brass-Buttons Everlating Coastal Isocoma Hemizonia fasiculata Tarweed Heterotheca grandiflora Telegraph Weed Matricaria matricarioides Pineapple Weed Sonchus asper Sow-Thistle Stephanomeria virgata Xanthium strumarium -_ Stephanomeria Cocklebur var. canadense A- 4 Borginaceae - Borage Family Heliotro ium curassavicum Chinese Pusley +at- Brassicaceae (Cruciferae) - Mustard Family Brassica nigra Sisymbrium sp. Black Mustard Mustard Chenopodiaceae - Goosefoot Family At riplex semibaccata Australian Saltbush Salsola iberica Russian Thistle _. Fabaceae’(Legibninosae) - Pea Family . ., Lotus scoparius Lotus sp. Lupinus sp. Medicago polymorpha Melilotus indicus Polygonaceae - Buckwheat Family Polygonum aviculare Rumex salicifolius -~ Rumex crispus Salicaceae - Willow Family Salix lasiolepis Solanaceae - Nightshade Family Nicotiana glauca Deerweed Lotus Lupine Bur Clover Yellow Sweet Clover Wire Grass Wi 1 low Dock Curly Dock Arroyo Willow Tree Tobacco A- 5 Solanum sp. Nightshade Urticaceae - Nettle Family Urtica holosericea Monocotyledoneae Cyperaceae - Sedge Family Scirpus sp. Poaceae (Gramineae) - Grass Family Avena sp. Bromus mollis Bromus rigidus Bromus rubens Cortaderia atacamensis Hordeum sp Lolium sp. Polypogon monspeliens is Typhaceae - Cattail Family Typha sp. FAUNA Rep t i 1 es Anguidae - Alligator Lizards "Gerrhonotus multicarinatus ssp. webbi Nettle Bulrush, Tule Wild Oats Soft Chess Ripgut Grass Foxtail Chess Pampas Grass Wild Barley Rye g r as s Rabbitfoot Grass Cattail San Diego Alligator Lizard I A- 6 Colubridae - Colubrids f "Pituophis melanoleucus SSD. annectens Iguanidae - Iguanids *Scelo orus occidentalis +s er i a tus *Ut - a s t ansbur iana ssp. hesperis Amphibians Bufonidae - Tree Toads "Bufo boreas - Hylidae - Treefrogs *Hyla regilla Birds San Diego Gopher Snake Great Basin Fence Lizard California Side-Blotched Western Toad Pacific Treefrog Accipitridae - Hawks, Kites, Harriers, Eagles "Buteo iamaicensis Red-Tailed Hawk Elanus leucurus Anatidae - Swans, Geese, Ducks Anas - cyanoptera White-Tailed Kite Cinnamon Teal Charadriidae - Plovers, Turnstones, Surfbirds *Charadrius vociferus Killdeer Columbidae - Pigeons, Doves Zenaida macroura Mourning Dove A- 7 Corvidae - Jays, Magpies, Crows Corvus corax Falconidae - Caracaras, Falcons *Falco sparverius Fringillidae - Grosbeaks, Finches, *Carpodacus mexicanus *Zonotrichia leucobhrvs Hirundinidae - Swallows Petrochelidon sp. Icteridae - Meadowlarks, Blackbirds, Anelaius Dhoeniceus American Kestrel Sparrows, Buntings House Finch White-Crowned Sparrow Sturnella nenlecta Mimidae - Mockingbirds, Thrashers *Mimus Dolvnlottos Sturnidae - Starlings "Sturnus vulgaris Tyrannidae - Tyrant Flycatchers Tvrannus verticalis Common Raven Swallow Orioles Red-winged Blackbird Western Meadowlark Mockingbird Starling Western Kingbird Mammals Cricetidae - Mice, Rats, Voles *Peromyscus maniculatus Deer Mouse A- 8 I 1, *Reithrodonthomys megalotis 'Western Harvest Mouse Geomyidae - Pocket Gophers *Thomomys bottae Valley Pocket Gopher Heteromyidae - Pocket Mice, Kangaroo Mice, Kangaroo Rats "Perognathus fallax San Diego Pocket Mouse Leporidae - Hares, Rabbits i. Sylvilagus auduboni Desert Cottontail Mustelidae - Skunks *Mephitis mephitis Striped Skunk "Mustela frenata Longtail Weasel "Spilogale putoris Spotted Skunk Sciuridae - Squirrels Citellus beecheyi California Ground Squirrel , * Species expected to be present based on range and habitat. A- 9 APPENDIX B ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD SEARCH B- 1 ! .I 1350 El Prado, Balboa Park, San Diego, California 92101, Telephone (714) 239-2001 Page 1 of 2 REPORT ON ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITE FILES RECORD SEARCH Source of Request: WESTEC Services - Richard L. Carrico Date of Request: 1 June 1975 (D ostmark 3 June 1975) (x)Letter ( )Telephone ( ) In Person I I I I Date Request Received: 4 June 1975 (x)Map Received (x )Map Returned I Name of Project: Mav Comanv Ex tension I I I 1 .I - r r' t -! ( ) The Museum of Man files show no recorded sites for the project area. (XI) The Museum of Man files show the following sites the project area. ( )within &)in the vicinity of Site No. w-1'35 Culture(s): Sari Diemito 11. La Jolla I1 Description: Slough terrace camps; cobble hearths, very low shell and charcoal con- tent; La Jollan manos and metates, San Dieguito blades. Site No. W-136 Culture(s): La Jolla 11, trace of Luisezo Description: Highland winter camp; many cobble hearths, manos and metates: flaked tools rare; shell absent; one arrowshaft straightener. Site No. W-137 Culture(s): Luiseio, trace of La Jolla 11. Description: Highland accretion midden: cobble hearths rare; sherds very common: tubular pipe, metates, mortar, arrowpoints; shell content mostly donax. Site N0.W-138 Culture(s): La Jolla 11, pre-pottery LuiseGo Description: Slough terrace and slough margin midden: cobble hearths rare: artifacts virtually absent: shell and charcoal mesent in midden. Site N0.W-139 Culture(s): La Jolla 11. LuiseGo. trace of San Diemito I1 Description: Hivhland accretion midden: cobble hearths: high artifact co- low shell and charcoal content: wide range of artifact tnes. Please note: The project area may contain archaeological resources in addition to those noted above. This report is made from San Diego Museum of Man files only and may not include data pertaining to localities other than those covered in previous Museum of Man surveys or gathered by other institutions or by individuals. Record check by:Grace Johnson/Ken Hedges Date:6 June 1375 Signed : B- 3 SAN DIEGO MUSEUM OF MAN 1350 El Prado, Balboa Park, San Diego. California 92101, Telephone (714) 239-2001 Page 2 of 2 I I - t REPORT ON ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITE FILES RECORD SEARCH Source of Request: \iESTEC Services - ftichard L. Carrico I I Name of Project: May Company Extension Site No. 1f-140 Culture(s): La Jolla 11, LuiseGo I I Description: Biphland intermittent camps; cobble hearths; small tanks cut into sand- stone (historic?): shell and charcoal present: sherds common. Site No.jq-141 Culture(s): La Jolla 11. Luiseio, trace of San Diemito 11, nossible La Jolla Description: Concentr ated slough terrace midden: cobble hearths: high shell and oal content: nrde r awe of stone and shell artifacts: Dotsherds. Culture(s) : San Diemito I1 and III. L a Jolla 11. Lu iseno. Description: Slo~gb terrace 9CCUD At1 'on: cobble hearth s: flaked st one tools and ere-s: low shell content in La Joll an midden - Site No. \-142 Site No. Culture(s): Description : Site No. Culture(s) : Dencriatian: Site No. Culture(s) : Description: Site No. Culture(s): Description: Site No. Culture(s) : Description : Site No. Culture(s) : Description: B- 4 I. I f I I 19 SAN DIE00 STATE UNIVERSITY Department of Anthropology 5402 College Avenue/ San Diego, California 92182 ' REPORT ON ARCHAEOLCX3ICAL SITE F'ILES RECORD SEARCH Source of Request: WESTEC Services (Rlohard Carrioo) Date of Request: June 1, 1975 a) Letter ( ) Telephone ( In Person Date Request Received: June 3, 1975 (X) Map Received ('1 Map Returned Name of Project; May Company Extension ( ) The San Diego State University files show no recorded sites for the project area. (x) The San Diego State University files show the following-sites ( within 6) in the vicinity of the project area. Site No. SDI-627 Culture(L3) : Description: Campsite. largelv destroved fM4lcnlm Rngmra 1 142: RVW q6) -, Site No. SDI-628 Culture(8): Description: Large CaUlDSite 5 manos. 2 metate fragment 5, 2 5 cho Site No. SDI-629 Culture(s): Description: Campsite, heavy shell content, site 99% destroyed Site No. SDi-630 Cultu.re(s): Description: Large campsite, heavy shell conoentration I I I I I I f: f' I i Site NO. SDi-631 Cd.ture(s) : Description : Large campsite, 22 manos, metate fragment, 11 ohoeper 3 cobble pestlea, 12 hammerstones, a shaped pestle fragment Site No. Culture (s> : Description: NOTE: This report includes only that information available from the San Diego State University files and may not include data on file at other institutiqns. lack of sites recorded in our files cannot be taken as assurance of the absence of archaeological materials. , remains are encountered during the course of construction, a qualified archaeologist should be notified. ! A If it should occur that any cultural Record check by: Date: June 3, 1975 Signed: B- 6 I I I I I I si 1- i I I& II^ I I APPENDIX C FINANCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS c- 1 C- 2 . FINANCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS EXPANSION OF PLAZA CAMINO REAL' L I I. :- I I 2 Prepared for The City of Carlsbad September 30, 1974 levander, partridge & anderson, inc. eccnomics and development consultants c- 3 I ! I I I. - 11. 111. IV. v. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 1. The Center 2. Existing Retail Analysis 3. Development A1 ternatives 4. Projected Retail Sales 5. Housing Growth Impact 6. 7. Sumnary of Financial Impact Costs and Revenues From the Center REG1 ONAL SHOPP I NG FAC I L I TI ES 1 .' The Existing Center 2. Proposed Expansion 3. Other Regional Centers 4. A1 ternative Sites for Regional Expansion 5. Other Local Retail Facilities RETAIL SALES ANALYSIS 1. Carlsbad Perspective 2. El Camino Plaza Market Analysis 3. Retail Sales Projections 4. Alternative Sales Projections 5. Impact on Other Carlsbad Retail Faciliities 6. HOUSING IMPACT ANALYSIS 1. Housing Growth Causes 2. Historical Growth Patterns 3. Develcrper Interviews 4. A1 ternative Population Forecasts Net Impact on Carlsbad Sales CITY REVENUES AND COSTS 1. Revenues 2. Costs of Population Growth 3. Plaza Camino Real Service Costs 4. Requested Public Improvement Cost . 5. Net Financial Impact fevander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and development consultants . c-4 Page Number 1 3 3 3 4 .. 5 6 8 11 11 11 ' 14 15 17 17 24 29 32 33 35 37 37 42 44 47 51 54 56 TABLES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Financial Impact of Expanding Stores at Plaza Camino Real Building Areas Plaza Camino Real Taxable Sales-City of Carlsbad, 1967-1974 Annual Retail Sales by County ' Median Income and Sales per Capita Carlsbad Retail Sales by Category, 1973 San Diego County Retail Sales by Category Sales at Other Carlsbad Stores, 1968-1973 Estimated Plaza Camino Real Sales by City Market Area Population Potential Regional Center Sales per Capita Plaza Camino Real Projected Market Potential A1 ternative Regional Center Sales Projections Net Effect of Plaza Camino Real Expansion on Carlsbad Retail Sales Actual Papul ati on Growth Trends Devel opment Companies I ntervi ewed Summary of Builder Interviews Revenues Generated by Plaza Camino Real Shopping .Center Val ues Carl sbad per Capita Revenue Factors Carlsbad per Capita Expense Factors Service Cats for Pliiza Ccmino Real Expansion Financial Impact of Expanding Plaza Carnino Real North County Cities Expansion Plaza Camino Real levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and development Consultants Page Number 9 12 13 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 20 3'1 34 38 40 41 45 46 49 50 55 57 c- 5 Introduction I L Levander, Partridge & Anderson, Inc. was retained by the City of Carlsbad to evaluate the financial impact on city finances of a proposed expansion of the Plaza Camino Real regional shopping center. The existing center totals approximately 552,000 square feet in gross leaseable area, and an additional 450,000 square feet has been proposed, to include Sears and Broadway department stores as well as mall shops. The developer has requested that the City contribute towards certain improvements for the center, through establishment of a parking assessment district or other procedures. economically infeasible without some form of financial assistance, and that the center will create 2 substantial net benefit to city finances, primarily through sales and property tax revenues. The purpose of our analysis was to provide a basis of factual information to assist the City Council in their decision-making in this regard. More specifically, our primary objectives were as follows: The developer's position is that the center expansion may prove o Project retail sales at the proposed expanded center, and determine the net effect of center expansion on retail sales transactions within Carlsbad. o Project the increase in revenues that will accrue to the city on an annual basis from development of the center, from sales taxes, property taxes, or other sources. o Determine the extent to which expansion of the center may effect housing and population growth in Carlsbad. Project over a 20-year period the overall net effect of the expanded center on muncipal costs and revenues. o Our analysis and conclusions are based on information from a variety of sources. Of particular value were the following: o Inspections. Inspections of the existing Plaza Camino Real center, other retail concentrations in the area, and alternative site locations. o Retailer Interviews. Information regarding trade areas, customer origins, actual and projected sales, development costs and other factorswereprovided by representatives of the May Company, Carter Hawley Hale, and J. C. Penney Company. City Staff. Information and assistance in analysis of current retail sales, business activity, city revenues, service costs, and other factors were provided by a variety of City departments, including the City Manager, City Clerk, Finance Department, Planning, Public Works. Police, and Fire Department. . o 1 I I L I.: I' I Wander, part ridge & anderson, inc. economics and development consultants C- 6 I 1:: I General Merchandise May Company J.C. Penney Wool worth ' s Apparel Adorable Shop Gambles Contempo Casuals Oorothe Maternity Fashion Conspiracy Foxmoor Gene's Jacobson's Lauf er ' s Louisa Bridals Marlene Fabrique Miller's Outpost Mode O'Day Modern Woman Park1 ane Hosiery Petri es Rebel Shop Salrn' s Shelli's Underground Sweetbri ar Shoes Gig's Jr. Bootery Table 2 STORES AT PLAZA CAMINO REAL Hardy Shoes Kinney Shoes Leeds Regal Shoes Streichers Thom McAn Universal Boot Shop House ha1 d Interior Systems Magic Greenhouse Singer Specialty Stores Arnolds Bed & Bath Carlsbad Picture .Center Chess King Fine1 1 Jewelers Flynn's Candle Shop Hallmark Carousel Specialty Stores Continued House of Fabrics King's Music Center Mediterranean Imports Mission Bell N' Things Merle Norman Pickwick Books Pier 1 Rug Crafters She1 don Jewel ers Tobacco Lane Toy World The Wherehouse . Food - The Goody-Goody Harvest House Nature Food Center Orange Julius Pope's Ki tchens levander, part ridge & anderson, inc. C-17 economccs and development consultants Services, Other Central Federal Savings Crocker Bank Cinema Plaza Gloria Marshal Dr. Locken Magic Razor Metcal f Studio Plaza Travel John Robert Powers 12 I I I I i I i I i I I I i i \ ! i I \ ! I I Esi sting Area Table 3 BUILDING AREAS PLAZA CAMINO REAL May Company J.C. Penney Mall Stores Total Existing Proposed Area Sears Sears Auto Center Broadway Broadway Auto Center Penneys Auto Center Expansion Ma71 Stores Total Expansion Total GLA Source: The May Company ievander, partridge & anderson, inc. C-18 econarnics and deveicrpment consullam Gross Leaseabl e Area 150,000 156,756 245,845 552,601 1 33,848 18,928 156,000 7,500 2,520 131,085 449,881 1,002,482 i I I I 1 t 1 i i C I i I ! I and is a limiting factor in Plaza Camino Real's penetration of the markets of Escondido and cornunities to the north and northeast portion of the county. addition, a Montgomery Ward department store is located at the 150,000 square foot Midtown Plaza center in Escondido. In The nearest regional facilities south of Plaza Camino Real are the Mission Valley and Fashion Valley regional shopping centers at the intersection of Interstate Highway 8 and U. S. 395, approximately 30 miles south of Carlsbad. Fashion Valley totals over 1,100,000 square feet, and includes Penney's, Broadway, Rubinson's, Buffums' , and J. Magnin's department stores, thus covering the range from moderate to high price and quality. The Mission Valley center totals 1,250,000 square feet, and includes May Company and Montgomery Ward department stores, as well as a Newberrys junior department store. these centers include -a very extensive array of apparel and specialty stores. Both of At the present time, the wide variety of store types and quality serves to draw customers from all areas of the North County, including Oceanside and Carlsbad. These centers outdraw Plaza Camino Real by a considerable margin in Del Mar, Solana Beach, and other cornunities located midway between these centers and Plaza Camino Real. In addition to the existing competition, two proposed centers in North County area were 0 0 -. identified. Theie. include: University-La Jolla Shopping Center. This center has been in the planning stagss for over two years, and current plans czl? for over 600,000 square feet of gross building space with Sears and Broadway as the primary anchors. Subsequent phases are planned to add one or two department stores and several hundred thousand feet of building space. This center is proposed for the corrier of La Jolla Vi1lage Drive andGenesee Avenue, over 20 miles south of Plaza Camino Real. I i kely, and when completed the center wi 11 provide significant competi ti on, particularly i n the Del Mar-San Diegui to areas. Completion of the center within twG to three years appears San Diego Center-Del Mar. A regional shopping center of approxi- mately 500,000 square feet, anchored by two major department stores, has been in planning for a site east of Interstate 5 on Villa de La Valle Road near Del Mar. This center would be less than 15 miles from Plaza Camino Rea7 and would represent very significant competition. However, this center is apparently still in the preliminary planning stages, and if the University center is devel- oped it would very possibly forestall this project. 4. ALTERNATIVE SITES FOR REGIONAL EXPANSION If Plaza Camino Real.is not expanded, the growing population of the market area wi 71 create a demand which eventual ly will be satisfied through development of regional facilities elsewhere in the surrounding areas. We undertook an levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and developmem cansulrants 14 c- 19 i evaluation of potential sites for regional center development within the market area. After conducting interviews and driving inspections, several sites which amear sui table for development were identified. These include the fol1 owi ig: '0 0 0 0 Highway 78 at El Camino Real, Oceanside. . Directly.north of Plaza Camim Real. area of over 30 acres suitable for shopping center development, although the terrain will create certain development problems. This site has been graded, and provides a total site Highway 78 at Colleqe Boulevard,,Oceanside. Two miles east of Plaza Camino- Real, approximately 40 acres are available south of the freeway. A small convenience center with Safeway and Thrifty variety store is under construction on this site, but sufficient additional acreage remains. 1-5 at Palomar Airport Road, Carlsbad. at this site sui table for regional shopping center development, although this site is less accessable to the population of Vista and Oceanside. ' Extensive acreage is available Oceanside Boulevard at 1-5, Oceanside. The current site' of the municipal golf course has been considered for regional shopping center development, although the existing Fed Mart on the key corner of this parcel limits its desirability for regional development. In addition to these locations., many other areas throughout the three-city area have been considered for development of department stores or small regional centers. However, in our judgment a true regional center must be located close to either Intqrstate Highway 5 or State Highway 78, preferably near the center. of population for the three-city area. these freeways is not physically feasible, the existing El Camino Plaza Real location is very nearly ideally located in terms of population distribution and access. In our judgrent, the E1 Camino Plaza site is superior to the other sites surveyed, and if expansion is not undertaken at this site the most . attractive a1 ternative sites are the Oceanside location directly across High- way 78, and the site at Palomar Airport Road and 1-5. Since development at the intersection of 5. OTHER LOCAL RETAIL FACILITIES Other retail facilities in Carlsbad and the imediately surrounding cornunities are limited to neighborhood shopping centers, freestanding discount department stores, and downtown strip commercial areas. Shopping centers in Carlsbad include Poinsettia Plaza, with 14 stores totalling approximately 50,000 square feet at Elm and Interstate 5; and Tamarack Center, an attractive neighborhood center anchored by a, Safeway i'larket and Thrifty Drug and Discount store, with five other convenience stores. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and developen! consultants 15 c- 20 i i ! i i i I I 1: i c I. 1.; i i ! I i. i 1 I I ! j ... The central business area of Downtown Carlsbad, mostly along State Street north of Oak Avenue, includes over 30 stores, including antique stores, apparel, auto- motive parts and repair, household furnishings , appliances, candy, shoes, tobacco, and a variety of other specialty and apparel stores. From compilation of sales data it is apparent that the overall sales at downtown stores of the types normally found in regional centers, represents a fraction of the volume at the Plaza Camino Real mall stores. Carlsbad' s other significant retai 1 concentration is at La Costa. A1 though relatively small, this center includes several good quality apparel and specialty stores, in addition to specialty and gift stores in the resort complex. Retail facilities in Oceanside include several small neighborhood shopping centers, the downtown strip commercial areas on State Street centered about Mission Street, freestanding Fed Mart and K Mart discount department stores, and three large neighborhood shopping centers which include Levitts Furniture, Toys R Us, Grants, and Longs Drug and variety store, in addition to food markets and nail stores. for the Plaza Camino Real center. All of these represent only very indirect competition levander, partridss & anderson, inc. economics and devebpmeni consultants 16 c-21 III RETAIL SALES ANALYSIS I. CARLSBAD PERSPECTIVE Table 4 illustrates sales subject to sales and use taxes in the City of Carlsbad, over the past seven fiscal years. As shown, sales have increased rapidly, at a compound rate of over 40% annually over this period. This rate . of increase is attributable to several factors, including inflation, the devel- opment of Plaza Camino Real center, the annexation of La Costa and its substan- tial retail facilities, increasing population and average incomes in the area, and the inclusion of gasoline sales subject to sales taxes in 1973. At the present time, retail sales in Carlsbad are exceeding $85 million annually. Approximately 89% of these sales are generated by retail stores and gas staions, the remainder from business and personal services and industrial transactions subject to sales or use taxes. Carlsbad has a high level of retail activity in relation to its population. As shown in Table 5, in 1973 taxable sales in the San Diego County as a whole equaled approximately $1,863 per capita, while sales in Orange and Los Angeles Counties slightly exceeded $2,000 per capita. As shown in Table 6, Carlsbad's sales level of $3,393 per capita was over twice that of Vista, appraximately 90% greater than in Sari Marcos, and Over 65% higher .thar, in Ocearxide. with a regional center and several substantial cornunity centers, has an even higher level of per capita retail sales, equal to $4,136 in 1973. Since the median income of Carlsbad residents is roughly comparable to the County as a whole, the per capita retail sales generated by City residents is quite. close to the countywide average, approximately $1,860 in 1973. sales within the City are over 82% greater than the countywide average, on a per capita basis. Consioering that a substantial percmtage of purchases by Carlsbad residents takes place in retail stores in San Diego City and other locations outside of Carlsbad, we estimate that residents of other areas account for over half of the total retail sales realized within the City. Esccmdida However, retail Table 7 presents a breakdown of 1973 retail sales in Carlsbad, by type of store.. In comparing the per capita figures with the countywide data in Table 8, the impact of Plaza Camino Real is apparent. Tenants of the center consist primarily of department stores , apparel stores , and special ty stores, and Carl sbad' s per capita sales in these three categories are over three times the countywide level. twi'ce that for the county as a whole, primarily because of the La Costa resort and the considerable tourist activity in other areas of the city. Per capita sales at eating and drinking places in Czrlsbad are over 2. EL CAMINO PLAZA MARKET ANALYSIS Table 9 shows estimated taxable sales at Plaza Camino Real, frcm opening through 1973, compared with sales at all other retail outlets in the city. In 1969 ' levander, partridse & anderson, inc. 17 c- 22 economtcs and deveiopment consultants ! I 1 I I I I i i i 1., i I I i Tzble 4 TAXAELE SALES-CITY OF CARLSBAD 1967-1974 I p Fiscal Year 1967-68 1 968- 69 1969-70 1970-71 . 1 971 -72 1972-73 1973-74 Taxable (1 Sales’ 12,280,000 25,735,800 35 g 385,000 40,828,300 54 074,200 77,046,600 1 Total sales subject ot sales and use taxes. I , Source: City of Carlsbad. levander, part ridge & anderson, inc. ’ ecanomrcs and deveiopment consuManrs Annual Increase -- 22. ax 101.4 37.5 15.4 32.2 42.5 C-23 U a a c C E U U C - 0 e S 0 - 4 P S 0 -r- 4 0, v) aJ F .. maJ mu L C- 24 TABLE 6 MEDIAN INCOME AND SALES PER CAPITA NORTH COUNTY CITIES I Carlsbad [’ Vista Oceanside r Sari Escondido 1.. 1970 Median Family Income $1 0,434 9,769 I San Diego County Total 9,074 10,050 9,066 10,133 1973 Retail Sal es/Capi ta $3,393 2,018 1,532 1,742 4,136 1,863 I Source: 1970 U-S, Census, State Board of Equalization l levander, partridge 81 anderson, inc. eCOnomrCS and do\re!cpmrml consulran1s C-25 20 I Table 7 CARLSBAO RETAIL SALES BY CATEGORY 1973 Cat eqo ry Apparel General Merchandise Furni ture, Appliance Specialty, Drug, Other Subtotal Food Stores, Liquor (1 Eating & Drinking Bldg. Materials & Farm Automotive Sales & Parts Service Stations Total Retail Outlets 0 ther Out 1 ets Total Taxable Sales Taxable sales only. Sourcei State Board of Equal ization. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. ecoflomlcs and development consuitants .. Total Sa 1 es $ 5,712,000 1 9,092,000 1 ,389,000 9,967,000 $36,160,000 4,249,000 8,248,000 968,000 4,718,000 4,708,000 $59,051,000 7,118,000 $66,169,000 C- 26 __ Per Capita $ 322 7,076 78 562 $2,038 238 465 55 266 265 $3,328 409 $3,729 i j 21 .- TABLE 8 SAN DIEGO COUNTY RETAIL SALES BY CATEGORY 1973 Sales Category (000) Apparel Store $ 140,970 General Merchandi se 593,622 Specialty Stores Furnf ture 8 Appl iance Subtotal Eatfng & Drinking Food ti Liquor (1) Bldg. Materials & Fan Service Stations Automotive Group Total Retail Store Business and Personal Services All Other Outlets 210,313 1 53,245 332,831 28721 2 204,945 260,008 652,491 $2,835,637 164,274 833,480 $3,833,391 (7) Not including non-taxable groceries Source: State Board of Equal i zati on levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and devemmnt consuf!ants C-27 . - .. .. . . . . , . Per Capita $ 92.65 390.01 138 -22 100.71 218.75 188.76 134.70 170.88 42%. 83 $1,863.67 107.97 547.78 k 2,519.43 22 . . .. - . .. . . - ___ TABLE 9 SALES AT OTHER CARLSBAD STORES 1 968- 1973 (000) ! i 1968 i 1969 (1) . 1970 (2) I I- 1971 1 1972 (3) 1973 Plaza Other Camino Real Outlets 8 0. $ 7,133 9,700 8,998 17,900 9,126 21,500 8,912 24,680 15,022 28,200 30,851 (1) May Company and shops opened partial year. (2) J. C. Penneys opened partial year. (3) Gasoline sales taxable as July 1, 1972. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and deveiopmenf consultants C- 25 Total Retail Store Sales $ 7,133 18,698 27,026 30,412 39,702 59,051 i I I I I i i I r I i Li I.. t i I 23 I I' ! I sales at the partially completed center totalled $9,700,000, and with the completion of J. C. Penney and the other mall stores, increased to $17,900,000 in 1970. During the first year of the center's operation, sales at other Carlsbad outlets actually increased, from $7,133,000 in 1968 to $8,998,000 in 1969. However, sales at other stores remained relatively stable over the following two years, declining slightly to $8,912,000 in 1971, the first full year for the center. Taxable sales at other outlets almost doubled in both 1972 and 1973, but these increases were caused primarily by the annexation of La Costa, the development of the auto center and other new facilities, and the addition of gasoline sales to the taxable rolls, rather than by an increase in sales at previously existing facilities. Although the overall magnitude of sales at other outlets remained effectively constant from 1969 to 1971, after accounting for inflation the figures represent a decline of approximately 12% in terms of constant dollars. the growth in real purchasing power and population during this period, it appears that retail sales at other outlets were impacted a minimum of approximately 15% during this initial period. Further, considering Table 10 presents an analysis of shopper origins at Plaza Camino Real. The percentages are based on three separate surveys of shoppers conducted throughout the center, with a total survey population of 2,850 shoppers. As shown in the table, shoppers living in Oceanside, Vista, and Carlsbad account for slightly less than 60% of total sales at the center. As would be expected, tht csnt2r's psiietration of there three ci'ties is roughly equal, averaging $168 per capita. Residents of the City of Carlsbad itself account for less than 12% of total sales at the center. Residents of the San Marcos, San Dieguito, and Fallbrook areas represent a secondary market area, accounting for 19.1% of total sales. Based on most recent estimates of population, sales from these regions equal approximately $92 per capita. The third market area defined consists of the Cities of Escondido, the Valley Center area, Pauma, and Camp Pendleton. Residents of these areas account for 17.8% of total sales, equivalent to approximately $39 per capita on an overall basis. Tourists and residents of other areas including Rancho Bernardo, Del Mar, San Clemente, and other areas of San Diego and Orange Counties, represent slightly less than 10% of total sales at the center. 3. RETAIL SALES PROJECTIONS Population Current and proposed' population estimates for the communities making up the three market areas are shown in Table 11. The current estimates were prepared . levander, .- partpidge & anderson, inc. economics and deve!opment consultants c- 29 24 Ci ty/Area Oceanside Vista Carl sbad Subtotal San Marcos San Dieguito Fa1 1 brook Sub to ta 1 Escondi do Val 1 ey Center Pauma Pendl eton Subtotal Other Areas Total TABLE 10 ESTIMATED PLAZA CAMINO REAL SALES BY CITY % Of Total Total Sales Sales 28.1% $ 8,795,300 19.7 6 , 166 ,100 11.7 59.5% 3,662,100 $18,623,500 2.7 845,700 11.2 3,505,600 5.2 1,627,600 19.1% 8.0 .8 $ 5,978,300 2,504,000 244,300 .3 1 00,000 2.7 845,100 11.8% $ 3,693,400 9.6 3,OCf ,800 100.0% $31,300,000 Current Sal es/Capi ta $1 63 7 74 176 - $1 68 67 98 97 8 92 - 40 - .57 50 34 $ 39 - Source: The May Company and Levander, Partridge and Anderson, Inc. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and developmeof consultanfs C- 30 24 by the San Diego County Planning Department, and are based on the actual change in housing inventory within each statistical area s nce the 1970 census, adjusted for estimated changes in average household size. Population forecasts for 1980 through 1990 were prepared by the Comprehensive P anning Organization of the San Diego region, CPO, using its sophisticated employment and population forecasting model. our judgment, these forecasts are the most realistic and comprehensive available, and have been utilized as the basis for our projection of market support. The issues ,of .population growth and the impact of center deve’lopment upon growth trends is discussed in greater detail in the Section IV of this report. These are the most recent forecasts prepared by the In Per-Capi ta Purchases Although all types of retail stores and services are found at regional centers, department stores, apparel stores, and specialty stores account for the great - majority of sales. Table 12 presents an estimate of current per capita purchases among the basic store categories, and indicates the percentage of such purchases that can be expected to take place at regional shopping centers. For example, based on current countywide sales, we estimate that purchases at general merchandise stores will equal approximately $420 per capita in 1974. About 60% of these sales can be expected to take place at regional centers, with the remainder at freestanding department stores, discount stores, variety and drug stores typically located at convenience centers, and at other outlets. As shown, general merchandise sales account for $252 of the total regional shopping center potential of $440 per capita. at regihal centers include apparel stores, specialty stores, and to a considerably lesser degree, furniture, appliance, and other household goods stores. These four groups account for over 90% of total sales at regional centers. This analysis indicates a countywide potential market for regional shopping centers of approximately $440 per capita. As presented previously (Table 4)* median income in the North County area is approximately 8% ’lower than for the county as a whole. median incane, the potential sales for the North County area has been adjusted by similar amount, indicating a potential of $404 per capita. Other store groups which typically locate Assuming that retail purchases correlate closely with P1 aza Cam4 no Real Projection Table 13 presents projections of total market support for regional shopping centers, generated by the population within the three basic market areas. shown in the upper portion of the table, residents of these areas currently generate potential purchases of approximately $109 mi 11 ion annually. Based on the projected rate of population growth in these communities, this market potential will exceed $119 million by 1977, exceed $127 million in 1980, and As levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and development Consultants 26 C- 31 i i I I i ! i 1 i I I i I t 1 ,i TABLE 12 POTENTIAL REGIONAL CENTER SALES PER CAPITA Ca teqory General Merchandise Apparel Speci a1 ty Furniture & Appliance All Other Stores County Total North County Total (3) Total (1) Per Capita $ 420 110 140 110 1,350 $2,130 $1,956 % At (2) Regional ' Centers 60% 65% 45% 20% 2.3% 20.6% 20.6% Regional Center Potential $252 72 63 22 31 440 $404 i (1) Estimated 1974 sales for San Diego County, from retail stores. I I (2) (3) Percentage expected to occur at regional centers based on overall Southern Cal ifornia sales distributions. Adjusted to reflect 8% lower average income of North County area. Source: Levander, Partridge & Anderson, Inc. ! levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and dwelqoment conwltants C- 32 27 I 0 LD 00000 000-I- ?21'h, 1 * v) c3 Io w # aJ L 0 c, v) aJ P 2, c, L aJ c, c aJ u 10 v) .tft L tu K 0 0 0 0 Y n 0 0 0 -e ro Y c .p rg c, c aJ c, n aJ L 3 c, tu u n v) QI e 0) c tu v) v) m d 0 U a u rrJ E 0 m tu N n v- Y c n c- 33 -. approach $165 million by 1990. It should be noted that these projections are conservative in that they are based on the current level of sales per capita. Thus, the figures do not include any increases generated by inflation, nor do they account for anticipated real. growth from increases in constant dollar purchasing power per capita. The second portion of the table shows the current and projected penetration of Plaza Camino Real within these market areas. As shown, the center currently captures approximately 42% of potential regional center sales in the pl'imary market area, 23% in the secondary area, and approximately 10% of potential sales in the more distant tertiary area. The expanded center will provide a considerably greater variety of stores and merchandise, and wi 11 support more extensive advertising and promotion. As such, we project that penetration within the primary market area will increase to approximately 65% of potential, penetration of the secondary area will increase from 232 to 42%, while penetra- tion of the tertiary market will more than double, from the current 10% to a projected level of 23%. tertiary markets will decline slightly after 1980, accounting for anticipated development of regional centers in other communities. We project that penetration of the secondary and The lower portion of the table shows projected taxable sales at Plaza Camino Real, assuming the expansion takes place. assumption that 1977 will be the first full year of operation for the expanded center. to $59,480,000 in 1977, eventually increasing to $79,550,000 by 1990. The last line of Table 13 shows these sales projections per square foot of gross leaseable area. Current overall taxable sales are estimated at approxi- mately $56.65 per square foot, increasing to approximately $59.33 by 1977, and approaching $80 per square foot by 1990. Our projections are based on the Sales are projected to increase from a current level of $31,300,000, Again, it should be noted that these projections reflect no real or inflationary increase in per capita purchasing power. in doilar income, roughly equivalent to the growth rate over the past two and one-half years, total center sales will exceed $93 million by 1980, and approach $252 million annually by 1990. terms of today's dollars provides a more realistic basis for evaluation of costs and revenues. Assuming a continued 8% annual growth However, in our judgment dealing in 4. ALTERNATIVE SALES PROJECTIONS The preceding sales projections for the expanded Plaza Camino Real relate to only one of the possible situations that may develop. center development in the Carlsbad area may take one of several possible di rections. These include: Regional shopping (1) The Plaza'Camino Real center will undergo a major expansion as proposed, insuring its dominance as the major regional shopping facility for northwest San Diego County. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. c- 34 29 econcmrcs and beveloptrent consultants I ! (2) (3) Plaza Camino Real will not expand significantly, and a second regional shopping center will be developed nearby in another city. Plaza Camino Real will not expand significantly, and a second competitive regional shopping center will be developed elsewhere in the City of Carlsbad (most probably adjacent to Lnterstate Highway 5. ) Plaza Camino Real will not expand, and no comparable major regional facility will be developed in the market area for several years, (4) Based on our analysis of the market, we believe it unlikely that three regional centers will be developed in the market area within the coming 15-year period. A1 so, i t appears unl i kely that no addi ti onal regi onal shopping f aci 1 i ty wi 7 1 be added during this period. Thus, we assume that if El Camino Plaza is not expanded, a second regional center will be added prior to 1985. These alternatives cover the range of likely situations that may develop. should be noted that the actual outcome may fall midway between the extremes of full expansion at Plaza Camino Real versus no expansion whatsoever. For example, if Plaza Camino Real does not expand, very possibly a freestanding major department store will be developed in the area, and additional mall shops or department stores may be added in subsequent years. net impact on retail sales of this alternative would fall midway between the foregoing alternatives. Projections of taxable sales under the alternatives are presented in Table 14. The first line shows sales projectiys for the expanded Camino Plaza Real, as derived in Table 13. reduce sales at the existing portion of Plaza Camino Real, offsetting antici- pated market increases from population growth. The second portion of the table shows that if a second regional center is developed elsewhere in Carlsbad or a nearby city, (assuming its total size equals the proposed expansion) total sales at both centers would be somewhat less than at a single expanded center. A basic justification for large regional shopping centers is that each store will benefit from customers drawn to the other stores. It However, the As shown, an initial impact of expansion would be to As shown in the last line of Table 14, the center is not expanded, and if no competitive facilities are developed in the market area, sales at the existing Plaza Camino Real would continue to grow based on overall population increases. Without competition, sales per square foot would exceed levels realized with an expanded center or if a competitive center is developed. However, in our judgment it is highly probable that some type of additional regional facility will be constructed by 1985. I i i levander, partridge & anderson, inc. I econcrnics and development consultants i-35 30 : -I i 0 0 L3 co cil c (0 m 64 0 0 0 L d m tff H e¶ 081 mm 8 "C - u a 0 0 m c m * v) U E m x w 5 PJ 0 EL E 5 u ro N rd P cc P 'F P U w q 0 C- 36 5. IMPACT ON OTHER CARLSBAO RETAIL FACILITIES Although an expanded regional center will draw the great majority of sales from residents of other communities, a portion of the sales increase will be drawn from Carlsbad residents, some of which might otherwise be realized by existing shopping centers and in the downtown area of Carlsbad; The following provide a basis for meaningful approximation of this amount: o Existing Center Capture. As discussed previously and illustrated in Table 10, residents of Carlsbad account for approximately $3,660,000 of the current purchases at the center, or approximately $176 per capita. In our projection of market support for the new center, we estimate that primary market capture will increase from 42% to 65%, which would represent increased purchases by Carlsbad residents of approximately $2 mill ion compared to the existing center. However, the actual loss to existing Carlsbad merchants would be considerably less than this, since a substantial proportton of these purchases by Carlsbad residents are now made at regional centers in Escondido, San Diego City, and the Orange County area. In our judgment, this measure provides a realistic upper limit for the impact of the center on all other Carlsbad rnerchan ts . o Plaza Camino Real Previous Impact. As presented in Table 9, during the period that the initial Plaza Camino Real center was developed to its present configuration, sales at other Carlsbad retail stores remain basically constant, representing an actual decline of approximately 15% in relation to overall trends in the county. Given the level of retail sales at that time, this represented a theoretical loss in the order of $1.35 million annually. Based on the preceding indications, development of an expanded regional shopping centr,' in the market drea wil: draw retcil sales from other outlets within the City in an amount up to approximately $1.5 million. represents the maximum probable impact of such an expansion. Considering that the center will draw increased volumes of shoppers into the Carlsbad community, very possibly the actual impact would be substantially less. In our judgment, this Also, it should be noted that at least this level of negative impact'will be realized if a second regional center is developed elsewhere in the City or in other nearby communities. Thus, the loss in potential sales at other facilities can be considered only for the period of time that no other regional facilities would be developed in the market area. This indicates that less than 5% of the sales at the expanded shopping center will be drawn from stores in Carlsbad, and the remaining 952 will be drawn from regional centers in San Diego and Escondido, other retail facilities in surrounding communities, and from increased overall retail spending from market area residents. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. econcmics and development consultants c- 37 32 I 6. NET IMPACT ON CARLSBAO SALES Tab.e 15 presents the projected net ,,npact on taxable sales in bdrlsbad, of the proposed expansion of the Plaza Camino Real shopping center. These figures represent the net impact, after accounting for the impact on sales levels at the existing portion of the center and at other retail facilities in Carlsbad. our judgment, these estimates are conservative, and represent the minimum level of increase that can realistically be anticipated. As shown, in 1977 the expanded Plaza Camino Real center wi17 generate a net addition of $23,716,000 in taxable sales within the City of Carlsbad, compared to no expansion whatsoever. By 1980, this amount will increase to $25,042,000, and exceed $37 million annually by 1990.. As shown in the second line of the table, in 1977 the expanded center would generate a net increase of $28,280,000 in taxable sales, compared with the alternative of development of a regional center in a nearby city. + I I In I i i I levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economcs and dew9opment consultants C- 38 33 c, u a Q E .C 0 0 0 0 h h c3 tc) 0, a 0 0 0 0 0 m cr) .) P a 0 0 0 w d ul cu a4 a 0, 0 0 0 co .I P P a cr) N # 0 0 0 0- 2 0 i aJ -E c, v) v) aJ P . c aJ u E 0 I I T + a a : 2 S a L! F n W r n E C + T T a .r *?- I I 0 0 *r I U 4) N .C c = aJ N v) z 2 x a aJ L aJ U n c I/ 1 0 3 3 0 I m 0 cr) c c, 0 E W k! LL w i, L Q, &2 .) cw z i a¶ u E 0 v) L 4 aJ 0) U .C i c, L L aJ U C .. aJ V L 3 0 v) n c n N c- 39 . . . . . -- . - .- . . .. . .. . . . . - .. . . IV HOUSING IMPACT ANALYSIS In analyzing the financial impact of expanding Plaza Camino Real, the City requested that the probable impact of the center on housing and population growth within the City be assessed. Given the complexity of the issue and the limited time available for completion of the study, we were not requested to perform an exhaustive statistical proof of potential housing impact. However, drawing from our previous studies of growth, economic impact, and housing demand, we undertook the following analysis which we believe provides a meaning- ful assessment of this potentially significant issue. 1. HOUSING GROWTH CAUSES The rate of population growth within a large region is a function of a variety of interrelated factors, which include most fundamentally: o Employment. in employment, particularly among the "basic" employment sectors. Population growth is dependent upon the rate of growth o Environment. A region with particularly attractive climate or other attributes may attract population and housing growth through retired persons, second home owners, and indirectly through tourist activity (which generates basic employment). o Household Formations. Housing and population patterns are affected by a variety of factors which determine the rate of household formations , i ncl udi ng the average age of marriage, the di vorce rate, and other factors. o National and Regional Demographics. The overall rate of population I. I growth is ultimately tied to the birth rate, although over the short- term the rate of household formations, which relates to past birth rates is more significant. Over the long-term, these preceding factors are dominant in determining the as Southern California or San Diego County as a whole. As we consider smaller geographical areas, a variety of other factors become predominant in deter- mining the more detailed distribution of regional demand. Some significant- factors in determining the growth rate of a smaller region or city such as Carlsbad include the -- following: __ overall population and housing growth rate for relatively large regions such ! I l o Rate of local employment development. o Proximity and access to regional employment centers. I levander, part ridge & anderson, inc. econornrcs and deveMpment consulfanis C- 40 35 . .. . - - , . . __ 0 0 0 0 Clearly, Particular environmental attractions of the area (beaches, lack of smog, social problems, character and appearance of existing urban development). Governmental attitudes and policies towards growth and housing development . Land ownership patterns and physical suitability for development. The quality of residential projects being developed, and the extent of promotional efforts applied in marketing these projects. development of the regional shopping cehter will have a negligible impact on the fundamental factors effecting regional growth, and similarly a regional center has little impact on several of the factors determining the more localized distribution of growth. ment (or expansion) of a regional shopping center might influence the rate of local population growtn in one of the following ways: However, we hypothesize that develop- (3) (4) Employment Generation. A regional center draws shoppers from a radius of up to and exceedinq 15 miles, and thus employment at the .- center itself is in a sense 'basic" to the immediate community, in the sense that these jobs are supported by money brought from without the local community. Traffic Generation. mobile travel, drawing residents from the entire surrounding market area. Shoppers will thus be exposed to housing development in the immediate area, which may improve their sales performance in relation to more isolated housing development. A regional center is a focal point for auto- Convenience. for prospective home purchasers, and thus certain homebuyers might sslect a hom netr srrch a centcr in preference to a more distant 1 oca ti on. A nearby regional shopping center would be convenient Builder Preference. Recognizing the fundamental potential benefits listed above, some builders may prefer to develop on sites near a regional center. a major center as evidence that major sophisticated retailers have confidence in the growth potential of an area. projects developed and promoted in an area is thus increased, the overall rate of abscrption could be increased to a degree. Also, some builders might view the location of If the number of Plaza Camino Real is already established as the cominant regional shopping facility for northwest San Diego County, and as such any growth inducing impacts are already being realized to a degree. In our analysis, we must consider to what extent additional expansion will intensify any such growth inducing impacts. . Also, in evaluating the impact of retail development on housing growth, a distinction must be made between regional centers and convenience or neighbor- hood shopping centers. The availability of a neighborhood shopping facility for levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and devempment consultants c-41 36 I I I i I I 1 i i I I ! ! I i I j 1 I i I ! 1 i conven barber By def radius ence items such as food, variety stores, dry cleaners, drugs, beauty and shops, and the like, is a significant requirement for housing development. nition, a regional facility serves population within a several mile and most households vi sit such faci li ties much less frequently than neighborhood type centers. 2. HISTORICAL GROWTH PATTERNS We evaluated historical growth rates in Carlsbad and other North County communi- ties, prior to and after establishment of Plaza Camino Real. Table 16 shows the relationship between growth rates in these communities, from 1960 to 1970 com- pared with the 1970 to 1974 period. growth in Carlsbad almost doubled during this latter period, the other comnunities experienced equal or even greater increases in their growth rate. Carlsbad's growth rate during the 1970's was 1.9 times the 1960's average growth rate, while Oceanside's more recent growth rate was 2.4 times its 1960's rate. In Vista, 1970's growth has been 1.7 times the 1960's rate. that if Plaza Camino Real did increase growth rates in this period, the impact was realized by the two neighboring communities in at least equal measure. Although the average rate of population As shown, These figures indicate The City of Escondido, some 15 miles from Plaza Camino Real roughly equivalent acceleration in growth rate, with 1970's growth equaling 1.6 tines the growth during the 1960's. Since Escondido's regional shopping center was developed in the early 1960's, this increase in growth cannot be attributed to center development. Di egui to, and Fa1 1 brook areas experienced the greatest re1 ative increases in growth rate. In San Marcos, 1970's growth was over 6.3 times the average 1960's growth, yet this community is approximately an eight-mile drive from the center, Similarly, the San Dieguito area, centered approximately ten miles from Plaza Camino Real, experienced an increase in growth of 3.8 times, and Fallbrook's growth rate increased similarly. As shown in Table 16, the major communities comprising the North County area increased an average of 14,844 persons annually during the 1970's, approximately 2.3 times the growth rate during the 1960's. Although Plaza Camino Real was established in Carlsbad in 1969 and 1970, Carlsbad's rate of growth during the . 1970's has averaged 1.9 times the average 1960's growth. indicate that the recent rapid growth was caused by a broad range of factors, and that the impact of the regional shopping center is not of major significance among them. of Plaza Camino Real is a result of overall trends in demand towards the North County area, which happened to coincide in time with the establishment of Plaza Camino Real. experienced a Within the North County, the San i.iarcos, San . These figures seem to In our judgment, Carlsbad's rapid rate of growth since establishment 3. DEVELOPER INTERY IEMS . We interveiwed executives of 16 of the 40 largest Southern California housing developers, to determine their policies and opinions towards the importance of levander, partridge & anderson, inc. econanics and development consultants 37 - 1 I 1' ! i ! I i I ! C- 42 Area Car 1 s bad Oceansi de Vista San Marcos San Dieguito Fa1 7 bmok Escondi do - Total Table 16 ACTUAL POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS . Popul a ti on Apri 1 Apri 1 Jan 1960 1970 1974 9,963 16,283 20,800 27,349 41,688 54,100 19,955 29 * 479 35 , 500 3,243 6,059 12,600 19,042 26,023 35,800 8,728 12,038 16,700 29,838 50,821 63,300 118,118 182,391 238,800 / Average Annual Increase 19EO-70 1970-74 632 1,232 1,434 3,386 952 1,642 282 1,784 698 2,667 33 1 1,272 .I.. 2 098 . 3,404 6,427 15,384 Ratio 1970 Is/ 1360's . 1.9 2.4 1.7 6.3 3.8 3.8 1.6 2.4 - Source: U. S. Census and San Diego County Planning Department. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and developmeni consulrarrrs . . . . . . . . .- . . . .. -. . c- 43 .. . ._ . . 38 -_ - regional shopping centers. To encourage discussion, we agreed that individual responses would be kept confidential. and the tabulation of results are shown in Table 18. Firms interviewed are shown in Table 17, A majority of the smaller firms reported that a regional shopping center was a significant factor in site location analysis, and most of these indicated that the ideal location was from one to five miles from the center itseif. developers of multi-family units expressed a preference for sites close to the center, while single-family developers were more interested in sites from two to seven miles from the center. In all, over two-thirds of the developers stated that the regional shopping center would have either a slight or substantial effect on growth within an area. doubling the size of an existing regional shopping center would have no effect or an insignificant effect on housing development trends. Only two developers indicated that the expanded center would have a substantial effect on housing growth, and both of these indicated that any such effect would be considerably less than the initial impact of the original center. Generally, However, the great majority indicated that It is apparent that the location of a regional shopping center is of much greater significance to smaller builders than larger builders. able to conduct substantial market research into an area's overall housing demand trends, and locate their large projects on the basis of long-term growth trends and the availability of suitable sites. In contrast, small developers have lower advertising budgets and thus benefit from the traffic generated by regional shopping centers. prefer a location near a major regional center, because this indicates that sophisticated retailers have researched the growth potential of the area. The large builders are . Several small developers stated they Although the overall survey does not provide a specific measure in percentage terms of the impact of regional shopping center development , certain conclusions can be drawn from the survey. These include: o Establishment of a major regional shopping center will effect overall housing trends to a degree, alchough this impact is most definitely secondary to other factors such as fundamental employment and popu- lation growth trends, availability of land, governmental policies towards growth, and other factors. The effect of this impact should be relatively evenly distributed from several blocks of the center to over five miles away. Approxi- mately one-half of the firms interviewed would not wish to be within two miles of such a center. o o Apartments and condominiums are more likely to be located near regional centers than single-fami ly tracts. While establishment of a new regional center may have some growth inducing impacts, expansion of an already existing regional center would have an almost insignificant impact on overall growth trends. o levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and deveiopment consultants 39 c-44 Table 17 -DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES INTERVIEWED Avco Communi ty Devel opers , Inc . Barclay Hollander Curci , Inc. Beard Development Co. Crowel 1 /Leventhal Inc. Griffin Development Co. A. 3. Hall Corp. Hallcraft Homes of San Horizon Building Corp. The Larwin Group, Inc. The !Warthy Co. .nc. Metropolitan Development Corp. Pardee Construction Company Ponderosa Homes Pres1 ey of Southern Cal i f orni a S & S Construction Co. She1 ter Corp. Showcase Homes Vincent Grant Inc. levander, part ridge & anderson, inc. econom!cs and devemt comulfants c- 45 40 _. . I I I 1 I Table 18 - SUMMARY OF BUILDER INTERVIEWS Larqe(1 Sinal 1 er Number of Firms Interviewed Is the Existance of a Nearby Regional Shopping Center a Factor in your Site Selection: A Significant Factor A Minor Factor No Effect, Negligible Within What Distance Should the Center be Located: 0-2 Miles 1-3 Miles 2-4 Hi 1 es 1-5 Miles 4-5 Miles 5-7 Miles No Bnswer To Whe: Oqree Would c Regional Center Accel erate Normal Housing Growth: Substantially SI ightly Insignificant, No Effect No Answer Would An Expanded Center Increase Desirabi 1 i ty and Growth, Compared with an Existing Center: Proportionally More Substantial Iy, but not Proportional ly Slightly More Insignificant, No Effect Fi Gs 6 - 1 3 2 - 2 4 Firms 12 - 8 3 1 5 4 2 1 (1 Among 10 Largest Southern California Builders in 1973. levander, partridge & anderson, inc. Total 18 -- 9 6 3 5 8. 4 1 - 2 5 7 1' 41 economrcs and deve/opm?nt consultants C- 46 4. ALTERNATIVE POPULATION FORECASTS Based on the preceding information and analysis, in our j idgment the pi oposed expansion of Plaza Camino Real will have a relatively negligible effect on population gruwth, excepting the direct impact of employflent opportunities generated at the center. From the preceding, we estimate that the expanded center will affect the fundamental population growth rate by less than 10%. As presented praviously in Table 11, the San Diego County Comprehensive Planning Organization projects that population within the Carlsbad area will increase from a 1974 7evel of 20,800, up to 35,800 persons by 1985, an average annual growth of approximately 1,360 persons. These projections are of course made without consideration of specific details as to location of shopping centers. .This would indicate that the center would create an additional growth of less than 130 persons annually. Based on a ratio of one employee per 500 square feet of floor area for retail space, the 449,000 square foot expansion will generate approximately 900 new jobs. by part time workers, students, and persons whose spouses are also working full time. As a result, the impact on household formations and population growth is limited. Although we have not performed an in-depth analysis of the employ- ment-household composition of Carlsbad, we estimate that 900 jobs in the retail field would represent support for approximately 540 new households, assuni ng- a, job to household ratio of .6 for this .type-of employment. jobs will be at the border of Carlsbad, based on overall distribution of growth in the area it is realistic to assume that.-these households will-be-distr-ibuted throughout a several mile radius .from the site, and thus-less .than 40% of these will be located within the City of Carlsbad itself, the remainder in Ocean;-{de, Vista,. and othersurrounding ccmmunities. Thus ..,establishment of the center wi 11 support dppvximately 21 6 new households in Carl sbad, or approximately 520 in total population. However, most of these are relatively lo^ paying jobs, typically filled Since the focus of the ru.--. --_ cis discussed previously in Section II, if expansion is not undertaken at Plaza Camino Real, most probably within the relatively near future additional regional facilities will be developed at other sites. are directly adjacent to Carlsbad or approximately one mile from Carlsbad. Assuming that the area of impact is primarily between one to five miles from the site, these alternative sites would have an approximately equal impact on Carlsbad’s population growth, as compared with expansion at the subject site. Thus, any potential increase in population growth created by the expanded center will also be realized if development is undertaken elsewhere. The most likely alternative sites Based on these assumptions, the employment at the expansion would creat2‘a total increase of approximately 520 persons in the City of Carlsbad, which we asshe would be realized over the first three years of operation. In addition, continuing population growth will be increased by less than IO%, or 130 persons annually. ment will take place prior to 1985. If expansion is not undertaken, we assume that alternative develop- levander, partrid- & anderson, inc. economics and devebvnt consultam 42 c-47 f ! ! i Maximum Projected Population Impact of Expansion Compared to Compared to Compared to 1977 - no expansion until 1985. 300 expansion el sewhere in expansion in other Carl sbad. 0 Nearby cities. 0 1980 1985 1,040 1,040 0 0 0 0 -- 1990 - I ,040 0 0 As will be discussed in Section V, the net impact of a population increase of this magnitude is not significant in relation to the overall costs and revenues generated by the center. of the maximum population impact will suffice for purposes of cost-revenue analysis. Thus, in our judgment these very approximate estimates ! levander, partridge & anderson, inc. econumics and develornent consultants C-48 43 I ! i i I I.; I-* I I c i I I I I -a i I I I I I I V CITY REVENUES AND COSTS i ! i ‘F u The preceding sections have provided the bases for estimating the impact on revenues and costs for the City of Carlsbad. We have taken a conservative approach in estimating sales revenues, and we believe that the revenue figures presented subsequently represent the minimum net revenue that can be expected from the center. sufficient to cover the actual increases in costs that will be created by the center. Conversely, our expense projections should be more than 1. REVENUES Sales Taxes The City receives sales tax revenues equal to 1% of all sales taking place within the City. Thus, the net change in sales tax revenues generated by the expanded center equals 1% of the net effect on retail sales, shown in Table 15. As shown in Table 19, the expanded center will generate $231,160 in additional sales taxes in 1977 compared with the alternative of no expansion. li i Property Taxes I I Table 20 presents an estimate of costs and assessed values for good quality regional shopping centers, on a per square foot basis. Property taxes are computed based on the City tax rate ($1.95 per $100 assessed valuation) times total cssessed value. For ;hopping centers, total assessed value includes land, improvements, personal property (such as displays, equipment, and furnishings) and inventory. Land, improvements and personal property are assessed at 25% of estimated market value. 12.5% of estimated value. With today’s construction costs, the center will represent an assessed value of $14.25 per square foot, or $6,410,800 in total. Actual property taxes will fluctuate with changes in the tax rate, and will increase in subsequent years as the center is reassessed to account for inflation. :c I’ /[ c Inventory values are assessed at I At a tax rate of $1.95/100, property taxes will equal $125,010 annually. I In our analysis we have considered only the constant dollar impact. Eusiness Licenses For Retail Stores - I_ _. Business licenses for retail stores are computed at $12 per store plus 30d for each $1,000 of annual gross receipts. mall store in the expansion is equal to that in the existing center, a total Assuming that the average space per Ij i levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics and devslopmsnt consulrants 44 c- 49 I i i I I I I I I I 0 0 0 1 0 0 ln N F .. c 0 0 a3 z h, c. c a r) UY tc) 7 h h m tc) 0 0 UY N P- .) c hl hl d m a3 m a4 R N m r- 2 U x W n I i 0 z I aJ2 n3a m nJ I-* n W I.: L c3 v, w 3 z w > w p: v) al In -. a 1 E aJ v) aJ m m aJ X rrJ I- E aJ U m a x fa I- v) aJ c a c 0 >, c, L a CL 0 L p. U Q1 v) fa aJ L u C U W aJ v) fa Q) L W S Y mmmc, mmao aJaJaJl- LLL 0 I- i wuu 45 c- 50 _. - Land Construction Cost Personal Property Inventory Total Total Value, Proposed Expansion .. TABLE 20 SHOPPING CENTER VALUES Val ue/Sq. Ft. $ 3.00 40.00 10.00 8.00 $61 .OO $27,442,750 Assessed Value/Sq.Ft. (11 $ 0.75 . 10.00 2.50 ' 1.00 $14.25 $6,410,800 (1) Inventory at 12.5% of value, other items at 25% of value. Source: Marshall & Stevens Valuation Service, The May Company, and Levander, Partridge & Anderson, Inc. bander, partridge & anderson, inc. c- 51 econcmrcs and devebpmeni consultants 46 of 40 stores will be represented. can be computed as $12 times the number of stores ($480) annually plus 30t per $1,000 for the net increase in retail sales. As shown in Table 19, net business licenses will represent $7,414 in 1977, increasing to $17,790 in 1990. Thus, the net effect on business licenses Total Revenues The center will: generate other revenues from building permits, miscellaneous fees, revenue sharing and other grants based partly on retail sales, from sewage fees, water fees, and the like. However, the preceding three cate- gories represent the great majority of revenues. Also, revenues such as permit fees and sewer and water usage are assumed to equally balance the costs of providing the services on a continuing basis. As shown in fable 19, in its first full year of operation, the expanded center will generate total revenues to the City of Carlsbad of $363,584, as compared with no expansion or development of competitive facilities. Revenues will in- crease to $513,800 by 1990. As compared with the possibility that a competitive facility may be developed in a nearby comnunity, the increase in revenues from expansion would be even greater, because of the greater net effect on retail sales as presented in Table 15. 1977 than Sf a competitive center is developed in a pearby comnunity, increasing steadily thereafter, With the expansion, revenues to the city will be $416,773 higher in 2. COSTS OF POPULATION GROWTH If expanding the center accelerates population growth in the City of Carlsbad,, in the form of..property taxes on dwellings and from several other sources-. In most communities, the costs of serving the average resident slightly exceeds the tax revenue generated from each resident, with the remainder provided by net revenues from cmercial and industrial uses within the city. Table 21 and 22 present an analysis of per capita revenue and expense factors for the City of Carlsbad, for use in determining net service costs of any additional population generated by the expanded center. These revenue and expense factors do not represent an in-depth analysis sui table for evaluating the impact of specific housing developments. Rather, they represent a realistic measure of the max- imum amount of net service costs for overall housing, for use in analyzing the shopping center expansion impacts. -the additional-population will require city services, while generating revenues C-52 levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economics ami derelqment consultants I 47 I) Per Capita Revenues 1 _i I- i k 'I Table 21 shows per capita revenue factors, based on the 1973-1974 fiscal year budget for the City of Carlsbad. The first column in the table shows total budget amounts, and the second column shows these amounts divided by the estimated population within the city, to provide an overall per capita measurement. be generated by a new resident. To illustrate, property taxes represented $1,825,000 of the total budget, equivalent to approximately $97.60 per capita. However, we estimate that only $56 per capita in property taxes is actually generated by the average new resident. an average new dwelling unit value of $27,000, 2.35 persons per household, and the current tax rate of $1.95. ) Sales taxes are computed on the assumption that each resident will spend approximately $1,200 annually within the City of Carlsbad, the remainder being lost to outside communities. Sewer service fees are based on $2 per month per dwelling unit, and 2.35 persons per dwelling unit for new units. The third column shows the amount of each revenue item that would (Property taxes were estimated based on Gas, cigarettes, and motor vehicle tax subventions were assumed to be computed on a straight per capita basis, and thus the variable amount per capita equals the total amount per capita. Revenues from building permits, other fees and licenses, trash collection, and street lighting are assumed to equal the cost of providing these services, and thus they are not considered in either the expense or revenue analysis. Other revenue items, including business licenses, fines, revenue sharing, grants, and other items, were assumed to increase less than proportionately with popu- lation, according to the relationships shown. total business licenses (equal to $3.75 per capita) approximately one-third is generated either directly or indirectly by population, with two-thirds generated by basically independert business and comercial activity. For example, we assume that of In total, we estimate that each new resident of the community.generates- approximately $1 18.83. in annual revenue%. Per Capita Expenses Table 22 estimates the expenses of serving each individual resident. As shown, certain expense items such as sanitation and water poflution, parks and recrea- tion, and library are assumed to be totally expended for residents of the community. Other items, such as police, fire, engineering, planning, and capital improvements, are assumed to be expended for both residential areas as well as commercial, industrial and public uses. As shown, we estimate that approximately 75% of the costs of police and fire protection is directly related to population. levander, partridge & anderson, ins. economrcs and development consultants i c-53 48 I ! ! ! i \ i I i A ! I \ ! ! I ! 1 i Table 21 CARLSBAD PER CAPITA REVENUE FACTORS Property Taxes Property Tax Relief Sales Taxes Transient Tax Building Permits Business Licenses Other Fees, Licenses Gas Tax Cigarette Tax Motor Ve h i cl e Fines Sewer Service Trash Col 1 ection Revenue Sharing CCCF Grants Street Lighting Other Total 1973-1974 Budget $ 1,825,000 66,000 627,000 (1) 145,000 173,000 70,000 113,000 202 y 000 65,000 148,000 54,000 218,000 120,000 200 000 121,000 63,000 70,000 $ 4,280,000 * (1) Actual s equal led 770,000 or $4l/capi ta Assume breakeven with offsetting expenses levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economrcs and devebpment consultants c- 54 Total Per Capita $ 97.60 3.53 33.52 7.75 9.25 3.75 ‘6.03 10.80 3.48 7.92 2.89 11.68 6.42 10.70 6.45 3.37 . 3.75 $ 228.88 -- Variable Per Capita $ 56.00 2.85 12.00 0 * 1.25 * 10.80 3.38 7 -92 2.17 10.20 * 8.00 3.22 * .94 $ 118.83 49 I I 1 I ! 1 1 I i i b I I ! I I Table 22 CARLSBAD PER CAPITA EXPENSE FACTORS Gent-1 Government, Departmental Insurance & Bonds leases L? Debt Service Reti remen t Other Non-Departmental Building Department Pol ice Fire & Civil Defense Engineering Streets Waste Mechanical, Maintenance 1973-1974 . Total Vari ab1 e Budqet Per Capita Per Capita Sani cation & Nater Pollution P1 anni ng 1 "" Parks & Recreation 1 i brary P.E.P. Capital Improvements Budgeted Surplus (Contingencies) _c , ;I I I Total Total Including ion-Variable Items ! I * Assumes breakeven with offsetting revenues I levander, partridge & anderson, inc. c- 55 $ 372 152 389 255 59 112 71 0 48 1 175 238 135 38 134 119 257 225 18 248 162 $4,280 - $ 19.139 8.12 20.80 13.63 3.16 5.98 37.96 25.72 9.35 12.72 7.23 20.36 7.16 6.36 13.74 12.04 .97 13.26 8.65 $ 228.88 $ 13.59 5.55 5.73 9.32 2.16 * 28.47 19.29 8.40 9.54 * 10.19 7.16 4.65 13.. 74 12.04 0 6.63 0 $ 156.46 50 economm and development consultants '. i i i Certain direct costs of government such as fire and police protection will tend to increase directly with the overall site of the community. Other costs, such as general admi ni strati ve costs, insurance, retirement benefi ts , and the like, need not increase directly with the overall size of the community. However, experience has shown that these items do invariably tend to increase as a comnunity grows. Thus, the first five "indirect" items in the budget were projected to increase by an amount proportional to the average increase in the "direct" items. In this case, the per capita increase in directly estimated items equalled 68% of the total budgeted amount for those items. Thus, general government, insurance, debt service, retirement benefits, and other non-depar-ntal expenditures were also assumed to be 68% based upon residential growth. -Ass how*,- tota-l-sewi ce. .costs-f or-eackLne%residen t-, are. estima ted-aLapproxL -ma&.&&S&-46-,-c~ecf.-t&.revenues.-gene.~ated _of-$ll8.83. Thus, we estimatk that -_the approxi mate net -cost to ,$he Ci ty,,of, addi tiona L. res-i den ti a 1 development -_. ,is i n+the,orderof,$3j3- per .capltLa-nnu?lJ& Previously, we estimated that the employment base at the expansion would generate a maximum additional population within the City of approximately 520 persons, over the first three years of operation. Also, a maximum of 130 persons annually would be generated from the effect on housing demand. Thus, the net annual cost to the City of this additional population would equal approximately $11,400 during the first full year of center operation, increasing to approximately $39,520 by 1980. However, if Plaza Camino Real does not expand, and a comparable sized facility is developed in a nearby community, the overall impact on Carlsbad would be approximately equal. -- L 3. PLAZA CAMINO REAL SERVICE COSTS I : I' Service requirements for the expanded Plaza Camino Real wi 11 be concentrated primarily iit three depiirtme.-tts: tenance. building department, engineering, planning, sewer service, and water department will be offset by fees directly paid for these services. Other departments such as library and parks and recreation will be uneffected by the center. General government expenses must be inferred from the increase in direct costs, while costs of public improvements can be estimated directly. police, fire protection, and street main- For purposes of our analysis, we assume that the impact on the Police Protection The Carlsbad police department had a total budget in fiscal year 1973-74 of $710,000, and employed 47 persons. efforts for patrol, and from complaints regarding shop 'lifting, bad checks, thefts of and from autos, vandalism, and the like. Within the time available for this study it was not feasible to compile the iiwnber of calls originated at the center and prepare a direct allocation of the police budget. The expansion would create additional police However, levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economtcs and develcpment consultants 51 C- 56 from our previous municipal cost studies and from discussions with the Chief of Police and the City Manager, we estimated that the total police effort can be allocated among land uses roughly as follows: % of Police Effort o Residential population o Transients , hotel s , beach, restaurants o Industrial o Business and professional o Retail Stores 50% 25 5 5 15 The existing Plaza Camino Real represents under 50% of Carlsbad’s retail sales, and in terms of sales and square footage, the proposed expansion will represent less than a 40% expansion to all existing Carlsbad retail facili- ties. Assuming that police activity is roughly proportional to .square footage and/or sales, this would indicate that the expansion will represent less than an overall 6% increase in police activity, or approximately $42,000 based on the 1973-75 fiscal year budget. an adequate allowance for increased police activity due to the center. center itself need not be justification for specific additional facilities or personnel, but rather the overall slight impact will be felt thrcughout the functions of the pol ice department. In our judgment, th<s represents more than The This amount can be related to possible new personnel and equipment. Full costs of a motor unit manned around-the-clock seven days a week is in the range of $125,000 annually, or approximately $15 per hour. Thus, such a unit could be allocated an average of 30 hours each week to the expanded portion of the center alone, for a cost in the order of $23,400 annually, with approxi- mately $18,600 remaining for a1 location to personnel for dispatching, pro- cessing of complaints, and other matters related to the expanded center oper- ation. Fire Protection The expanded center will be fully sprinklered, and of fireproof construction. It will not require specific additional manpower or equipment to provide adequate fire protection, with the exception of approximately two weeks per year for inspection time. However, the addition of a major public building of this magnitude, including one area of three-level construction, will intensify any current needs for additional manpower and facilities. Also, levander, partridge & anderson, inc. economcs and developn?ent cansultanis 52 c- 57 I , i I the larger center may require increased vehicular pumping capacity to main- tain the community's fire rating which affects insurance rates. A new fire station has been budgeted for a location generally southeast of El Camino Plaza, but this facility has already been approved based upon current needs- Although the.facility will require negligible absolute costs for fire pro- tection, it is appropriate to provide a cost allocation so that the center fully carries its share of overall fire protection cost, the costs of fire protection among land uses, retail stores represent same 20% of the total requirement, with the remainder for residences, offices, industrial uses, hotels, restaurants, public buildings, and open land. 20% of the overall need for fire protection represents a total allocation of $96,000 annually, based on an overall budget of $480,000. The expansion will represent approximately a 40% increase in total retail activity, how- ever the older retail facilities are generally unsprinkled and represent a substantially higher fire hazard than a modern center. Thus, we estimate that the center represents less than a 25% increase in the fire protection requirements for retail facilities, or approximately 5% of the overall budget. This would represent approximately $24,000 annually. If we allocate The $24,000 annual cost can be applied to amortization of equipment, towards additional manpower, or to other costs. for a combination ladder and pumping vehicle are in the order of $?O,OOO annually, and thus this annual cost would be more than sufficient to justify one additional full time man plus amortization of a major piece of vehicular equ i pnen t . Amortization and maintenance costs Street Maintenance Maintenance of the 3,100 linear feet of the Marron Road.extension is esti- mated at approximately $10,000 per year, over a 20 year life. This estimate was prepared by the City Department of Public Norks, and includes cleaning; maintenance and repair of pavement, signing, lighting, and Signalization; and energy for lighting. This cost does not include eventual costs for full pavement replacement in 20 to 25 years. General Government Although a 'larger center will not create any immediate needs for expanded general government activities , we have appl ied an increase in general govern- rnent.costs, proportional to the overall increase in variable costs. As dis- cussed above, increased costs for fire, police, and street maintenance wil? equal approximately $76,000. This represents approximately 2.5% of the 1973- 74 city budget (excluding general government, insurance, debt service, re- tirement, and other indirect costs). Assuming that the indirect costs of levander, partridge & anderson, inc. 53 C- 58 economics and devekpment Cansultanis 1 ! I I I i I ! 'i i i i i i_ I I I i ., i I I government will tend to increase proportionally, we have assumed a 2.5% increase in general government, insurance and bonds, retirement, and other non-departmental costs. These budget items totaled $838,000 and thus a 2.5% increase equal s approximately $21,000 annual ly . ! Total Service Cost ! i I r ! As shown in Table 23, total annual service costs for the expanded center are estimated at approximately $97,000. This is more than sufficient to cover direct cost increases generated by the center, and fully accounts for any long-term proportional increases in the size of City government that may be attributd to the center. The $97,000 service cost equates to $3,031 per acre, assuming approximately a 32-acre site for the expansion. On a per acre basis, our estimate of service costs appears more than ample in relation to commonly used guide- lines for cost/revenue analysis. The City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning has prepared a report titled “Environmental Impact Process for Private Projects’’ which presents general instructions and guidelines for preparation of impact reports. The most recent version of this report, revised as of February 28, 1974, estimated that for non-residential uses, . direct service cost for all city services equals $2,061.42 per acre. 4. REQUESTED PUBLIC IMPROVEMENT COST ! I i The developer has requested that the City contribute towards development of parking and access facilities for the proposed expansion, in an amount not to exceed $1,500,000. This could be structured through one of several means, including establishment of a Parking Assessment District which would own the facilities and issue Donds in the amoun.2 of the City’s contribution. Revenue for retirement of these bonds would be drawn by leasing the facilities to the City, in an amount sufficient to pay bond amortization and audit costs. The total cost of the parking lot and Marron Road extension would considerably exceed $1,500,000, and we assume that any excess over this amount would be paid by the developer. On December 24, 1973 the City Engineer prepared an estimate of the cost of providing the 3100’ Marran Road extension, including the realignment of Jefferson Street and traffic signalization at the intersection of Jefferson and Marron Road. indirect costs, and 10% for contingencies, was estimated at $510,000. The cost of parking lot development is estimated by the City Engineer at approximately $900 per space, including grading, drainage, pavement, strip- ing, landscaping and lighting. Assuming that approximately 2,300 additional parking spaces must be constructed, this would equal a total cost of $2,070.000. Costs of the road extension, including street lighting, I i levander, partridge & anderson, inc. - I eccmmrcs and development consulrants c- 59 54 I Table 23 SERVXCE COSTS FOR PLAZA CAMINO REAL EXPANSION Pol ice Fire Street Mal ntenance General Government Total Service Costs Annual Cost $ 42,000 ' 24,000 IO ,000 21,000 $ 97,000 Amortization of Requested Improvements (7.5%, 25 yrs) $133,000 levander, partridge & andsrson, inc. economrcs and develoDmm consullanh C- 60 T. I 55 i r i i Thus, the total cost of the parking lot expansion and Marron Road extension are estimated at approximately $2,580,000. We have assumed that the city's total contribution towards these public improvements will equal $1,500,000, and that these funds will be raised through a bonding. $133,000 annually at 74% interest over a 25 year amortization period, Service on the resulting bonds would equal approximately 5. NET FXNANC XAL IMPACT The projected net financial impact of the Plaza Camino Real expansion is shown in Table 24. As shown, compared with the alternative of no competitive development until 1985, the expanded center would generate a surplus to the City Treasury of $122,184 in 1977, after allowing for a71 service costs, costs of population increases, and amortization of requested improvement. The over- all surplus would decline slightly by 1980 because of the greater increase in population that might be generated at that time. As population growth in the area creates additional sales at the center, the overall favorable impact would tend to increase in subsequent years, to approximately $196,900 in 1995, and further increasing to over $240,000 by 1990. If the center is not expanded, a conpetitive center may be developed in a nearby city. Excansion, however, would certainly prevent such campetition. A Competitive center would reduce sales at the existi'ng portion of Plaza Camino Real, while creating the same impact on population as if the center itself were expanded. Thus expansion will not only generate additional net revenues, but also will prevent losses that would be incurred if a competitive center is developed. As shown on the lower portion of the table, on this basis expansion represents a net favorable impact of $186,773 in 1973, after all costs. The amount of this total benefit would increase steadily with population and buyin; power, exceedi3g $233,000 by 1991r. I levander, partridge & anderson, inc. I I , economics and deve&,mnt cunsultants C-61 56 m c =I 0 0 43, 0 0 9 0 0 cu 0 0) N 00000 00000 Q, 91 "0, 4 "3, 0 0 0 m M L F h h 0 N (u 4: 0 a 0 QI m 7 cuocu 0 Q: 81 5 81 P z V cr) CQ m h 0, nw fa F-LL 0 c, E Q) 0 E c Y LL. VI c, E. W > 0 c Q) > 0 L P E U L 2 c W U L a S 0) cl c, c W > 0 5 L P E w v) aJ nc + 0 aJ E aJ > 0 i W L 0 - W n W L 0 cc a c F-I L n E n W L E- - - U aJ v) U J c a > 0, PL bl 0 u aJ 7 G c, aJ z -a 7 9. Qbl '4 vn W > 4) ci .. .. .. v) v) aJ A .. v) v) aJ v) v, a v) v) aJ l a -0 c?: u aJ z i 57 C-62 APPENDIX D TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS D- 1 1,' TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR PLAZA GAMIN0 REAL APPENDIX D Introduction On May 29, 1975, Alan M. Voorhees and Associates was authorized by an agent of the developer to proceed with a Traffic Impact Analysis for the proposed expansion of the Plaza Camino Real recional shopping center in Carlsbad, California. The study is to be used in the Environ- . mental Impact Report for the expansion of the existing 572,000 square feet of shopping center floor area to the future total of I, 022,000 square feet. This report documents the findings of the traffic impact analysis. Location and Proposed Access As can be seen on Figure I, Plaza Camino Real lies immediately south of Route 78, a four lane freeway which connects 1-5 on the west near the ocean to 1-15 on the east within the City of Escondido. At the present time the existing shopping center gains 100Yc of its access via El Camino Real (which has an interchanqe with Route 78) since the Frontage Road on the north, Marron Road on the south, and direct driveways, all intersect El Camino Real only. With the proposed ex- pansion of the shopping center, a new major access route is provided via the extension of Marron Road westerly and northwesterly to connect to the existing Jefferson Street interchange with Route 78. will be a continuous route from the freeway to El Camino Real with the existing westerly portion of Jefferson Street alongside Buena Vista Lagoon being de-emphasized by having it make a ''T" intersection into Marron. This route Ultimately other area access will be provided by the construction of Monroe Street southerly from a ttT" intersection with Marron Road at the center, and the extension of Elm Avenue easterly to El Camino Real. Other major roads easterly of El Carnino Real will also be completed as shown on Figure 1 as development takes place within these now vacant areas. D-.3 . .. ... .. .. .. . .. .. ,, '. . . . __ .. -- . . *. . i i Existing Trans port at ion Conditions Figure 2 shows existing traffic on the streets and roadways in the Plaza Camino Real area. Camino Real movement towards Route 78 in the PM peak hour, traffic flow is very good. will be corrected by a California Department of Transportation (CalTrans) project which will widen the easterly half of the El Camino Real bridge over Buena Vista Creek to its ultimate width. In general, other than the northbound El The occasional northbound conqestion noted here This project was scheduled for construction in the very near future, but unfortunately, a sudden shortage of construction monies has postponed th’is project. Traffic counts made onMay 30, and June 2, 1975, indicate that the existing Plaza Camino Real is contributinq 6070 of the existing northbound PM pe& traffic on El Camino Real. This fact points out the necessity of constructing Marron Road westerly to the Jefferson Street interchange to help relieve EL Camino Real until the bridge, mentioned above, is completed. Figure 2 also shows total existing PM peak hour traffic in and out of Plaza Camino Real as well as at the nearby Jefferson Street and El Camino Real ramp intersections. In addition to existing traffic, Figure 2 shows existing transit routes to Plaza Camino Real. routes - all provided by the Oceanside Transit System (OTS) that serve the center. the only access, some of the routes are forced to use Route 78 in an out of direction move, in order to arrive at the center. As can be seen, there are four existing It should be noted that since El Camino Real provides Estimated Future Plaza Camino Real Traffic Generation In assessinq the future traffic impacts of the proposed expansion of Plaza Camino Real as shown on the site plan of Figure 3, it is necessary to know the future daily and peak hour traffic that the total shopping center will generate. traffic counts, from field observations, and from other San Diego area studies, it was found that Plaza Camino Real in the future can be - -. From existing Plaza Camino Real D- 5 \ \ I I P P 1 . 1' I 1 # 'I I I I . .. 3' have an estimate of average vehicular trip length to and from the future expanded Plaza Camino Real. Comprehensive Planning Organization, CalTrans, and with consideration of the existing and future population in the area, it was concluded that the average one-way trip length to or from Plaza Camino Real will be approximately 4.5 miles long. Based upon data obtained from the . x-- _--- It must be realized that though the numbers cannot be quantified in the scope of this study, not all the traffic and mileage to and from Plaza Camino Real can be considered "new" traffic generated jsst be- cause the shopping center is there. Many of the trips in and out of Plaza Camino Real would be in the area anyhow, particularly on Route 78 and El Camino Real, as residents travel to and from their homes for other purposes such as home to work. On these trips they often will "drop into" Plaza Camino Real and become allgenerated trip" yet they truthfully are not a "new" trip. T r af f ic A s s ignm ent Once the traffic generation and traffic distribution for Plaza Camino Real was known, it was assigned, by direction, to the area streets. For its impact however, it is not enough to know just this traffic, since other traffic in the area will also be growing. In 1974, a development along the east side of El Camino Real called Carlsbad Shopping Center was planned and therefore, its traffic should also be assigned to the area streets. Real not associated with the shopping centers. must also be anticipated and assigned for the future. dl this total area traffic for the PM peak hour in 1980 on the area streets. development and that the other traffic will continue to grow at the same rate as it has over the past five years. be noted that the traffic shown on Monroe Street includes traffic to and from Plaza Camino Real and to and from the Jefferson Street interchange with most destined for the freeway. Finally, there has been a growth in traffic on El Camino This continued growth Figure 4 shows This figure assumes the two shopping centers will be at full On Figure 4, it should Most of this traffic on Monroe is .. . .. D-9 .. due strictly to the land use developments along it - the shopping centers have little to do with it and most of the traffic would still be there even if Plaza Camino Real was not developed. Time-distance analyses were also made to determine if the expanded shopping center would encourage considerable new traffic from Elm Avenue to Monroe Street. Again, the volumes were found to be negligable since the new Marron extension to Jefferson makes it very easy and __ direct - for traffic to enter from the west -ria Jefferson Street or the Route 78 freeway interchange. --jr_oves to be *- the most attractive route to all the El Camino Real activities. Also, the extension of Elm - Avenue to - El Camino _. -___ -_ - __- .- -*. - Conclusions and Recommendations During the conduct of the traffic analysis of the proposed Plaza Camino Real expansion in Carlsbad, the consultant arrived at certain conclusions and recommendations that are provided hercwith: 1. From a traffic impact viewpoint, the expansion of Plaza Camino Real can be approved by the City of Carlsbad with full assurance that 1 i its generated traffic can be adequately accomodated by the existihg ang’ planned street system in the area. -A 2. The most important single project to assure adequate access and decreasing congestion will be the extension of Marron Road to the Jefferson Street interchange of Route 78. there will be less Plaza Camino Real traffic on El Camino Real at Route 78 after the expansion, then there is now before the expansion. 3, With the expansion of Plaza Camino Real, with Marron Road extended, with the Carlsbad Shopping Center fully developed, and with slight signal modification, the intersection of Marron Road and El Camino Real is expected to operate at only 80% of capacity in 1980- thus providing very good service. - -_ . With this street extension, - __ __ -- - _” - -_ -__. __------ _. ~~ I” - 4. . In this age of energy shortages .and high auto travel costs, every attempt must be made to provide good transit service to major activity .. . .. , .. .I .. ... .. .. .. . .. . .. .. D-li ,- . . . .. ,. .. , . _.. .. -- - -e . .- - S - .--- --- - - - /..- -- - --e-- centers such as Plaza Camino Real. to serve Plaza Camino Real, and with the extension of Marron Road, much better service can be provided. recommended bus routes and shows the recommended major ~- bus stop, on the Plaza Camino Real site, on the Marron Road side of the center in the vicinity of the May or Penney Court - entrances. By using Marron Road for the routes, bus congestion in the parking areas can be minimized and all routes can have one major transfer point at the center, Future plans call for six routes Figure 5 shows these future 5. During the course of the study, the consultant noted that at the existing Plaza Camino Real and on the plans for,the expansion, all south side parking lanes enter and exit directly onto Marron Road. This means that circulating parking lot traffic must enter Marron Road for moving from one aisle to another. that was not important while Marron was not extended to Jefferson. With this extension however, it is strongly recommended that parking lot circulation be modified so as to take place on the site - not on Marron Road. 6. the existing two lane Jefferson Street roadway along the lagoon must be realigned somewhat so that it "T's" into the new Marron Road. -It was noted in the field that this wuld be a good opportunity to correct a parking and "duck safety" problem at the duck feeding location on Jefferson at the lagoon. Figure 5 shows a short realignment of two lane Jefferson Street passing through the trees south of the existing roadway, leaving the existing roadway at the duck feeding site as a dead ended 2arking area. at the existing duck feeding site, are a definite environmental, re- creational, and safety plus for the travelers and the residents of Carl sbad . This is a very bad traffic practice With the extension of Marron Road to the Route 78 interchange, This realignment and the resultant benefits . APPENDIX E SLOPE EROSION CONTROL AND LANDSCAPING FOR FIRE PROTECTION E-1 SLOPE EROSION CONTROL AND LANDSCAPING FOR FIRE PROTECTION Where areas have been denuded of vegetation either by fire or from construction activities, steps should be taken to insure that erosion is kept to a minimurn. At the same time, the establishment of a "greenbelt" about structures using certain plant types which evidence a high degree of resistance to fire may prevent the loss of life and property. Minimum density required for a greenbelt to effectively retard fire is about 25 feet. Immediate protection from erosion can be gained by stapling heavy. .. jute matting onto bare slopes or by applying straw mulch thickly to the soil surface. Grasses can be sown for temporary protection until ground covers, shrubs'and trees can become established. Tall trees often form a barrier that prevents flying burning material from reaching buildings. Once established greenbelt areas should be kept free dead litter. The attached for erosion and fire control. - REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. table contains suggested plants Anonymousr 1965. "If you live in the Fire-Explosive Hills", Sunset Magazine. 134 (4) :261-263, April. Anonymous, "The Green Fireman Plan: Fire Protection Through Green- belt Planning", Red Cedar Shingle and Handsplit Shake Bureau. Seattle, Washington. Undated. Anonymous, "HOW to Protect Your Home From Wildland Fires", Cali- fornia Division of Forestry, San Diego Ranger Unit, Undated. Ching, F. T. and W. S. Stewart, 1962. "Research With Slow-Burning Plants", Journal of Forestry 60 (11) : 796-798, E- 3' 1 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11 . County of Los Angeles, Department of County Engineer, Building and Safety Division, Grading Guidelines. Undated. Green, L. R,, 1965. "The Search for a 'Fire Resistant' Plant in Southern California", California Department of Conservation, Division of Forestry, Fire Control Experiments, No. 10-12 p- i i i r I Maire, R. G, and J. R. Goodin, 1967. "Landscape for Fire Protec- tion", University of California Agriculture Ext. Sew. Publ. AXT-254, 16 p- Montgomery, Kenneth R. , 1973. "Green Belts for Brush Fire Protec- tion and Soil Erosion Control in Hillside Residential Areas!; County of Los Angeles, Department of Arboreta and Botznic Gardens, Arcadia, California. Nord, E. C. and C. M. Countryman, "Fire Relations. In: Flildland Shrubs - Their Biology and Utilization". USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-1, pg. 88-97, 1972. Nord, E. C., D, R. Christensen, and A. P. Plummer, 1969. Atrfplex species (or toxa) that spread by root sprouts, stem layers, and by seed, Ecology 50 (2):324-326, Phillips, C. B., L. E. Gunter, G. E. McClellan, and E. C. Elord, 1972. "Creeping Sage - A Slow Burning Plant Useful for Fire Hazard Reduction" , California Department of Conservation, I i Division of Forestry. 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E- 10 I a Q) 9 C ir U E 0 U al d P a M E 0 ?-I (0 0 k w m z 2 d P 0 V (d U V a al m APPENDIX F LETTER FROM DOWNTOWN MERCHANTS ASSOCIATION F-1 F- 2 I 5 1 CARLSEAD. CALIFORNIA 92008 2mn5 Mayor Robert Frazee Members of the Oitg Council Carlebad, California 92W8 city Hall Dear Mayor Fraoee t The Directors of the Downtown Merchant' e Aeeoaietion of Carlabad, by +hie letter, indicate the conditional eupport of the propored aotion for the Oity of Carlebad to provide needed find6 for con- etruction of parking facilitiee and extension of Marron Road the May Company ehoppiq COmPhXa Support ie conditioned upon the following8 1. The City of Carlebad to actively aeeiet in the formation of em improvement dietriot for downtown. Carlebad. 2. The City of Carlebad to make available to the proposed improvanent dietriot f'unde needed to meet the goale and objeo- tires of downtown re-development. It ie the underetanding of the Aeeociation'e director8 that a8 a direct reeult of the so-called Sear'e Expansion", the bonding capacity of the project would be eubetantially in exceee of the fide requeeted by May aompanyb It ie from these exceee fund%- that the City of Carlebad can provide financial eupport to the propoeed improvement district, in addition to additional oupport fram funde derived by eales tax revenue increaeee derived after completion of the f13earte Expaneionn project. Baaed on the foregoing, the Carlebad Downtown Merchant'e Aeeocietion recommenda approval of City participation in the May Compaaiy proposal. Preeident - Downtown Merchant' e Aesooiation-- RR/& Copies to: Paul Eusey Harry Swaneon F-3 I c 1 I I APPENDIX G CORRESPONDENCE G- 1 __ . G- 2 i I I I i f i' I I ci 1. IC] I I I I I 1. I THE PACIFIC TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH COMPANY Escondido, June 17, 1975 Westec Services, Inc. 17632 Irvine Boulevard Tustin, CA 92680 Attention: Douglas Wood In answer to your inquiry of June 12, 1975 we plan to serve the proposed expansion of the Plaza Camino Real with the extension of our existing telephone facilities now serving this shopping center. 4 Your final plans of this expansion will help us in determining the exact route of our extension. When the plans are available, please forward them to Marlin Hall of our company so he can finalize the engineering design of telephone facilities. Howard kQ Breitenfe YQ c Engineer (714) 747-5809 cc: Marlin Hall ! G- 3 - . . . PO. BOX 917 720A PONTO DRIVE CAALSBAD, CALIF 92008 729-A500 OR 767-5423 PHONE: 753.41 57. VAX ORT ENTERPRISES, IYC. dbo: SORRENTO vALLEY DISPOSAL C3. RANCHO SANTA FE OISPOSAL CO. 6ORREGO SPRINGS DISPOSAL CO. tsEs!CEC Serrices, ?nc. 1520 State St. San Dlego, California -01 Attention: Ec1. Douglas We& This letter is in reference to lyuu letter dated June 12, 1975, concerning ';he envlromntal impact report in the proposed expansloa of Plaza Camino Real in Carlsbad. As I discussed with pu earlier by telephone, it would be advlsablc to 'have a trash compaction s-ystern similar to that nm In use by J.C. Pennys Co., also located at the Plaza Csmino Real Ln Carlsbad. This system of coargaction would be %e best for all garties concerned. hare my further questions please contact me. '/""p" DRAG ON SERVICE I I CATERPILLAR CLEANUP SERVICE 'RASH AN0 DEBRIS QEMOVAL CONTAINER SERVICE ! I" I. A SATISFIED CUSTOMER IS OUR FIRST C3NSIDE2AT!ON G- 4 I i I i I I f; I I L r county of san die o - environmen Q al development agency 1600 pacific highway, san diego, California 92101 (71 4) 236-3720 office of environmental management randall I. hurlburt director June 23, 1975 board 'of supervisors jack walsh dick brown IOU conde jim bates lee taylor chief administrative offiesf 7 first district second disrrict third district fourth district fifth district dave speer (acting) Sandra Gaffhey Westec Services, Inc. 1520 State Street San Diego, CA 92101 SUBJECT: PROPOSED EXPANSION OF PLAZA CM?XO REAL Dear Ms. Gaffiey. In response to your letter of June 16, 1975, requesting information on the subject project,.it is not possible to isolate areas of specific concern without more detailed knowledge of the proposed project site. Since you indicate that the development proposal involves the expansion of an existing shopping center, I presume that you are dealing with an urban setting. However, as with any project, you must evaluate geology and soil mechanics, biology, archaeology, traffic and circulation, air quality, water quality, energy mitigating measures, etc. and other concerns will become apparent when you visit the proposed development site. This list is not intended to be exhaustive I presume from your letter that the City of Carlsbad will be the Lead Agency. However, the County of San Diego would like to review the draft Environmental Impact Report in the role of a Responsible Agency during the public review period. For your information the Integrated Regional Enaironmental Management program no longer exists. mental Management to carry on the functions of that program on a continuing basis. responsibility for all "project level" environmental analysis to the Office of Environmental Impact Review. that Off ice. The County of San Diego has established an Office of Environ- A current reorganization which takes effect on July 1 , 1975 , will assign MY. David C. Nielsen will be the Director of If any additional questions arise, pIease call me at (714) 236-3720. I RLR:mbh environmental irnoact !i research and methodology G- 5 @ SAN DtEGO GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY P 0 BOX 1831 SAN OIEGO. CALIFORNIA 92112 ln4l 232-4252 D June 24, 1975 Mr. Douglas Wood Westec Services, Inc. . 1520 State Street San Diego, California 92101 Dear Mr. Wood: Thls wlll acknowledge receipt of your letter dated June 12, 1975, regarding the electric and gas services for the expansion of Plaza Camin0 Real In the City of Carlsbad. This information was requested to adequately complete your Ebvironmental Impact Re- port concernlng the development of the Carlsbad pro- perty. Presently, we are reviewing your letter and contacting the appropriate ;?eople within the Company who can give us the specifics you requested, This in- formation should be gathered and returned to you with- in the next four weeks. In the future, feel free to call on us when- ever the occasion arises. Sincerely, / / C. J, aollins Assistant Land Planner CJH:Ima Extension : 1884 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ' 3.1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO. 1180 A RESOLUTION OF THE PLANNING COMMISSION OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA SETTING FORTH ITS FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATION FOR CERTIFICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT NO. 295. APPLICANT: MAY STORE SHGPPING CENTER,, INC. WHEREAS, a verified application for a certain property, to wit: The expansion site located in the City of Carlsbad, bound by Marron Road on the mith, by the existing Plaza Camino Real to the east, Buena Vista Creek a short distance to the north and by Jefferson Street, a short distance on the west. ias been f-iled with the City of Carlsbad and referred to the Planning Cornmission; !nd WHEREAS, said verified application constitutes a request as provided by 'itle 19 of the "Carlsbad Municipal Code"; and WHEREAS, the public hearing was held at the time and in the place specified n said notice on August 27, 1975 and subsequently continued to September 16, 975; and WHEREAS, at said public hearing, upon hearing and considering the testiniony nd arguments, if any, of all persons who desired to be heard, said Commission ,onsidered all factors relating to the Certification of Environmental Impact .epcrt'No. 295 and found the following facts and reasom to exist: (1) The EIR meets all requirements of the California Environniental Quality Act and the Carlsbad Environmental Protection Ordinance. All necessary notification and review has taken place. The EIR adequately discusses anticipated impacts of the project, project a1 ternatives, and mi tigation measures to lessen the impacts. Mitigations to identjfied impacts are summarized as follows: (a) In order to avoid adverse settlement, the project area underlain by soft compressible soils should either be surcharged or the building constructed on pilings. (b) Further detailed soil investigations shall be conducted on the prcject site, in order to identify and mitigate slope stability problems. a .1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Rfp, rap, concrete drainage and extensive slope plantings can reduce problems or erosion and siltation along north and west embankment slopes. In order to reduce siltation of the lagoon, the project should be constructed during the dry season, slopes should be protected prior to construction, and sl'lt basins and extensive landscaping should be installed. In order to decrease impacts on the water qual-ity of the Buena Vista Lagoon, the parking lot drainage system should be so designel so that surface water run-off will be contained in catchment and settling basins. The basjns should be cleaned and maintained at regularly scheduled intervals, especially during the rainy sea,son. A rigid program of street and parking lot cleanup can reduce contamination of the Buena Vista Lagoon. Buildings should be designed to withstand any seismic shaking problems revealed by the soils investigation for the project. The effects of intrusive noise can be controlled by limiting construction to normal daytime working hours. The landscaping in the Plaza Camino Real parking lot should be increased to soften the overall visual impact of the Plaza Camino Real. Deterrents to crime, such as an adequate lighting of the parking lot and maximization of "defensible space", should be incorporated into the project design. In order to meet minimuin fire flow requirements, a looped water system providing a minimum of 6500 GPM should be installed. All new buildings and/or structures should be so designed so as not to increase the existing fire flow requirements of 6500 GPM. Monroe Street and Elm Avenue should be extended as soon as feasibli in order to decrease response time of any public safety service. A professional fire protection engineering consultant should be retained to aid in project design. The additional bonding capacity which the City will gain from the proposed expansion should be used to initiate revitalization of thc The City should study and implement possibly a shuttle bus service between the Plaza and the Central Business District. The City shall take appropriate measures to improve pedestrian safety on Marron Road in conjunction with project planning and approval. -2- .l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 The City shall study the need for implementing a means for iriiprovi ng vehicular access between the parking 1 ot and Marron Road, giving special emphasis to improving traffic safety and parking lot efficiency. Jefferson Street shotrld be realigned so that it "T's'' into Marron Road so that circulation will be improved and duck safety problems at the duck landing would be corrected. As a part of project design and approval, the following possibilities for reducing heating and cooling costs and energy consumption should be studied: a) Design of the structure to take full advantage of the summer cooling breezes and winter sun; b) Use of a computerized temperature monitoring system to switch off blower motors when they are not needed. Use of low-water volume toilet fixtures should be considered as a part of project design. Solid waste disposal systems should be made more efficient. Two alternatives for this are the installation of centralized trash bins, or the installation of a conveyer belt-packer systeni. Project builders architects and tenants should be encoirrayd tn seek appliances, 1 igiiting and spacz heating methods which rc.d;lcc- internal 1 oad factors. A transit system which could complement the existing Oceansidc Transit System bus service should be considered in conjunction with project planning and approval. An employee blrs system should be studied and implemented, if possible, in conjunction with project planning and approval. A Specific Plan, as outlined by State law, should be required for the project to ensure compliance with guide lines set in the General P1 an for regional shopping centers , arteri a1 col 1 ectors, etc. The Specific Plan, if required, would permit satisfactory and effective mitigation measures of noted and identified impacts. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Planning Commission of the City of iarl sbad as follows: (A) That the above recitations are true and correct. (b) That the Planning Commission recommends Certification of EIR-295. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the City of Carlsbad 'lanning Commission held on September 10, 1975, by the following vote, to wit: - 3- Y! 3, 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 10 11 12 23 14 15 16 17 1-8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 AYES: Commissioners Watson, Dominguez, Fikes, L'Heureux, Packard and Jose NOES: NONE ABSENT: NCNE ABSTA IN : Commissioner Larson \TTE ST : '& Iona d A. Agatep, YkR Secretary L- , Cha i rman -4- .- -- .. CALL TO ORDER. . The meeting @as called to order at 7:30 P.M. ' .. .. ROLL CALL ClTY OF' CARLSBAD MEETING OF: CITY OF CARLSB4D PLANNING COMMISSION \ .. DATE: September io, 1975 TIME: 7:30 P.M. PLACE: , COUNCIL CHAirlBERS COM kl I S SI ONE RS All Present WRITTEN COMMUNI CAT IONS , None ORAL COMMUNICATIONS None APPROVAL OF MINUTES The minutes of the August 27, 1975 Planning Conmission meeting were approved with the fol.lowing amendments: Mr. Henry Thompson,' 330 Chestnut Avenue, Carlsbad, requested the following amendments be-made to the minutes regarding his testi- mony pertaining to Case #ErR-295, May Store: He requested the minutes r&flect that he did not speak either for: or against the project, but that he wanted to express his concern regarding the project. . He further stated that he would like the minutes '(page 5, para. 3 last sentence)' changed, that he did not state, "...there was npthing objectionable in the document." He did state the follow- ing ".. .that he did not have the opportunity to fully-review the document and therefore could not state properly his objections or cments. ' .. '..I . a I ._ PUBLIC HEARINGS - .. Case No. EIR-295 - May Store Shopping Center Inc. - Contlnued request for Certification of an EIR for the addition of 450,000 sq: ft. of retail 'shopping area to the existing Plaza Camino Real Shopping Center. . .. Planning Director Donald Ahatep gave itaff .presentation and a brief sumnary of what transpired at the August 27;1975 meeting for the benefit of.the audience not present at that meeting, specifically discussing the traffic system (vehicles and pedestrians) .that surrounds the Plaza Camino Real. Applicants' representative, 3ohn Mamaux, did not made a.p.resenta- tion but was present €0 answer any questions of the Commission or public. Fay Round, Vice Piesident, Westec 'Inc., 17632 Irvine, Tustih, spoke stating.that Westec Inc. prepared the EIR and that they were in basic agreement with the conunents and additians made' : by staff. He stated he would wa.it for public testimony prior to making-a final presentation and would be available for questio . Mr. George Flanders, 3765 Yvette Way, Carlsbadi spoke on,.the project stating his concerns relating to the Buena Vista Lagoon pertaining to si1 tation during grading of the shopping center. He stated he was concerned with the drainaqe, and what effect wou run-off have on the lagoon and the duck feeding area. Mr. Round, Westec Inc., responded to Mr. Flanders concerns Present Ayes .. .. i I I. .. .. CIT I' OF' CARLSB AD Page 2 - stattng that as a result of their {esearch, Westec Imc. concludec that there would be no significant biological effect in the area . which could be contributed to run-off or siltation. He further stated that the siltation would be controlled by siltation basin: to enable any run-off to settle$nd be subsequently disposed. Henry Thompson, 330 Chestnut Avenue, Carlsbad, spoke on the pro- ject. He stated that the Buena Vista Lagoon was the only fresh 'water lagoon in Southern California.and the Hosp Grove and the Lagoon were valuable natural resources in the State of Californit and that the Buena Vista Creek and Lagoon all combine to make up a complex system-that carries'life-givtng fresh water to wild lii He felt that the City should cons.ult further with the California Department of Fish and Game regarding run-off and siltation of tt Lagoon. He urged the Commission to take due, deliberate, expert testimony from every source possible before rendering their decision on this matter. Public. Hearing was dlosed: Comnissioner L'Heureux pointed out .that the purpose of the re- quirements of an EIR was to require that any proposed developmenl prepare an examination:of the project and discuss possible environmental impacts and mitigating measures present. He stated he felt that. it was not realistic to create an EIR that could pinpoint all problems arising from any project. He felt . that a future Specific Plan and a more detailed analysis of the project as.it develops would be needed and that the applicant, City and staff wouid be d;erted by tha EIR procas; SG that colle: ivelyzthey oould iook at problems that arise as the project devel and ti report could be written on problems that need to be further explored. The EIR report should be addressed.to the major anticipated impacts and- if necessary, at a later date, request supplemental information on EIR-295. He felt it was not practical, to "fine-tune" the EIR at this stage of .the pro- . ject. After' substantial discussion .among the'Comnissioners,, it was moved and unanimously approved to recomnend to the City Council Certification of EIR-295. . . .. .. Case No. ZC-161 , 162, 163 .- City Initiated - Continued'reqttest to apply Flood Plain (F-P).Overlay Zqne to 100 year flood areas: Planning Commissioner L'Heureux stated for 'the record that he wa: abstaining from tKis discussion for reason of conflict of intere: Planning Director Donald Agatep gave staff presentation, ex- .plaining the memorandum of September 10, 1975 and the Federal Flood Insurance Program. . vision of the Flood Plain Zone there is a choice as to whether tc use the standard project flood plain limits or the 100 year flood .plain limits. Since the Federal Insurance Administration - . and the U.S. Corp'of Engineers use the 100 year flood plain'limil . it was suggested thaf .the Planning Commission recommend to the . City Council that for purposes of the flood plain rezoning pro-. gram,. the 100 year flood plain l.imit, rather than the standard project flood plain limits (which are more restrictive) , be used. .. After substantia? discussion among'the Planning Commission, Pu bl ic Hearing was opened. Mr'. Agatep explained that under pro- .. lotion \yes ibstain .. "7 DATE : OCTOBER 1, 1975 TO : CITY COUNCIL FROM: City Manager SUBJECT: PLAZA CAMINB REAL NEGOTIATIONS At its May 6, 1975 Council meeting, the City Council instructed the staff to have an EPR prepared on the expansion of the Plaza Camino Real Shopping Center, That EIR has been prepared and reviewed by the Planninq Commission with a recommendation that it be certified by the City Council. If the Council certifies the EIR, the next step would be final negotiations leading to a firm commitment of City participation at %he earliest pssibie time, The Council had previously authorized the staff to do some preliminary negotiations, recognizing that until the EIR was certified, the City muhd n&e DQ girn commitment. ongoing and a number of details are in the process of being resolved. The staff does however, need sme further policy direction coxicerning one or two items. The preliminary negotiations have been The total dollar amount of participation was never firmly established. For negotiation purposes we have been separating the extension of Marxon Road from the parking lot, itself. May Company's position has been that they need $1,500,000 total contribution for the combined project, and the staff is willing to lmk. at it in that light with Council's concurrence, Ti.& to that question however, is the City's participation in upgrading the existing portion of the parking lot, known as llsrron Road. As Marron Raad becomes a through travel- way from Jefferson to Camin0 Real, it is anticipated by the staff that some problems will QCCUK with the pedestrian trrffic generated by the theater as they cross from the May Company parking lot. to the expansion of the Center. The proper method of re- sQlving the problem will be studied by the engineers. This should be taken care of prior October 1, 1975 Page 2 Subject: Plaza Camino Real Negotiations A potential problem may also exist along the north side of the existing portion of Marron Road because of the lack of curbing or other traffic barriers, As the road exists, automobiles can move back and forth freely from the parking lot to the road, making both right and left turns in both directions without any control. To date this has not caused any serious problems but it is anticipated that with the completion of Marron Road, through traffic will create hazards with these turning movements, The Council should consider as a policy matter if the resolution of these problems should be a part of their financial commitment to the expansion,or handled as a separate matter, If the EIR is certified these matters should be discussed by the Council. PAU6 D. BUSSEY City Manager PDB: ldg