HomeMy WebLinkAbout1977-04-05; City Council; 3243-2; Valle Verde (Carlsbad Oaks) Master Plan Proposal\ .b -0 CITY 01 --I__ "ARLSEAD I)t""". " i '? 7~ flT ? r /= . "I ,Lj.q>-.-. "7 ..&' . , . -. i"",
e- Ini ti.aI :
Dept. Hd.&
' DATE: - . April 5, 1977 city Atty-
AGC-NDCI BILL NO. "-
DE'PARWENT: PLANNING ' Ci ty Mgr..
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-.- SUBJECT: CI"
VALLE VERDE (CARLSBAD OAKS) MASTER PLAN PROPOSAL
- STATEISEXT THE MATTER
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The City Council approved a Master Plan for thevalle Verde project on ember 17, 1974 (Resolution No. 3557). The Planning Department recent
received an application from the Santa Fe C0mpan.y to.amend the Master
Community zone. Also received was authorizawon to request proposals the performance of the required Land Use and Public Facilities Econom Impact Report ._
The' firm of Ashley Economics, Inc. had proposed on and been interview
prepare the Economic Impact Report on the La Costa Master Plan. The was not chosen.. However, the interview panel recommended that this f
given priority in proposals for the Valle Verde (now Carlsbad Oaks) Ma
Plan.
to bring it into conformance with the recent amendments to the Planne
Ashley Economics has submitted a proposal which staff finds acceptabl
the app1ican.t'~ request, this Impact Report would. include the P-M zon
of his.property as well as the P-C zoned area.
Exhibits:
dity Council Resolution on Economic Impact Report, Carlsbad Oaks (San
City Council Resolution (Ashley Economics; Inc.) Exhibit "A" (Ashley Economics, Inc. )
Recommendation:
If the council accepts the interview panel's recommendation,of the fi
Economics, Inc., it is reco unci1 approve the attac contract. by adopting Resolution orizing the Mayor to the contract; and adopt Res !,,---pr-ov-iding for the ap payment of costs.
. Exhibit "AI' , (Santa Fe Co.)
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RESOLUTION NO. 5028
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY.COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORN.IA, APPROVING AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD
SANTA FE COMPANY AND FOR THE PROVISION AND COMPENSATION OF SERVICES TO PROVIDE AN ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ON THE CARLSBAD OAKS MASTER PLAN.
The City Council of the City of Carlsb.ad, California,
hereby resolve as follows:
1. That this certain agreement 'between the City of C
and Santa Fe Company for the provision and compensation of
sulting services to provide a land use and public faciliti
Economic Impact Report on the Carlsbad Oaks Master Plan, a
of which is attached hereto marked Exhibit "A" and made a
hereof, is hereby approved.
2. That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby
rized and directed to execut,e said agreement for and on be
the City of Carlsbad.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at 'a regular meeting of
City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, held on
day of , 1977 by the follwong vote; to wit:
AYES :
NOES:
ABSENT:
ROBERT C, FRAZEE, Mayor
ATTEST :
MARGARET E. ADAMS, City Clerk .
(SEAL) ..
1 I -m Rclution No.
AGREEMENT
THIS AGREEMENT is made this day of
19 - , between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a municipal corporatio
of the State of California, hereinafter referred to as CITY,
and SANTA FE COMPANY hereindter referred to as APPLICANT.
.I RECITALS :
WHEREAS, the Applicant has filed with the City a reques
for approval of a proposed project identified as The Carlsba
0aks.Master Development Plan; and
WHEREAS, paragraph 2B of Sect.ion 21.38.060 of Chapter 2
of Title 21 requires the preparation of a Land Use and Publi
Facilities Economic Impact Report prior to consideration of
project ; and
WHEREAS, the City has -determined that it must engage tk
services of a qualified consultant to perform the necessary
. in the.preparation of.said Land Use and Public Facilities Ec
Impact Report for the proposed project;
.. NOW THEREFORE, in consideration of the covenants and cc
.. hereinafter contained, it is agreed as follows:
' 1. The'City will engage the firm of Ashley Economics,
hereinafter referred to 'as the "Consultant" to perj
the necessary work in the preparation of Land Use t
.Public Facilities Economic Impact Report for that i
.. more particularly depicted upon. a plat map attache(
hereto marked Exhibit "A" and incorporated herein 1
reference.
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2,. It is understood that preparation of the Land Use a:
Public Facilities Economic Impact Report shall confl
to the Proposal attached hereto as Exhibit "B", and
may require :
(a) Collection of, data;
(b) Analysis 'of data ;
(c) Written reports; .and
(d) Such other work as may-be necessary to proper1
evaluate the Land Use and Public Facilities Ec
Impacts of the proposed project.
3. The Applicant shall pay to the City the actual cost
incurred by the Consultant in preparing said report
that such costs shdl be based on the costs set for
in Exhibit "B". The Applicant has advanced the sum
of $19,500 as payment on.account for the cost of pr
paririg said report; that in the event it appears, a
the work progresses, that said sum will not be suff
the City will notify the Applicant. No further wor
be performed by the Consultant incurring an obligat
beyond the amount advanced without an appropriate a
ment to this Agreement. If the actual cost of prep
the report'is less than Applicant's advance, any su
will be refunded to Applicant by City.
4. It is understood that the Consultant shall be an in
dependent contractor of the City; that the Applican
agrees to permit the Consultant to en.ter upon his F
erty and to perform and work thereon as the Consult
deems necessary to complete the Land Use and Public
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Facilities Economic 1mpact.Report. It is agreed th
the Applicant at no time will’ interfere with the Co
-. sultant in the performance of such work or. attempt
influence such Consultant during the course of his
investigation and report.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF., the parties hereto have executed th
agreement on the day and year first above written.
CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal
Corporation of,the State of
California
ATTEST :
BY ROBERT C. FRAZEE, Mayor
MARGARET E. ADMS , City Clerk
APPLICANT
BY
APPROVED AS TO FORM:
.. VINCENT F. BIONDO, JR.
City Attorney
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RESOLUTION NO. 5029
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A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE
CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING . ' AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD AND ASHLEY ECONOMICS, INC. FOR CONSULTING SERVICES TO PROVIDE AN ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ON THE CARLSBAD OAKS MASTER PLAN*
The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California,
hereby resolve as follows:
1. That that certain agreement between the City of C
and Ashley Economics, Inc. for consulting services to pro
1an.d use and public facilities Economic Impact Report on t
Carlsbad Oaks Master Plan, a c'opy of which is attached her
marked Exhibit "A" and made a part hereof, is hereby appro
2, That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby
rized and directed to execute said agreement for and on be
the City of Carlsbad.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of
City .Council of the.City of Carlsbad, California, held on
day of ,. 1977 by the following .vote, to wi
AYES :
NOES:
ABSENT:
ROBERT C. FRAZEE, Mayor
ATTEST:.
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MARGARET E. ADAMS, C-i ty. Clerk
(SEAL)
Y e e ~ - ~~~-~ ~ ~
AGREEMENT
THIS AGREEMENT is made this day of
19 - , between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a municipal corporatio~
of the State of California, hereinafter referred to as CITY
and ASHLEY ECONOMICS, INC, hereinafter referred to as CONSU:
RECITALS :
WHEREAS, the City has entered into an agreement with S;
FE COMPANY, hereinafter called the "Applicant", wherein the
agrees to have prepared a Land Use and Public Facility Econc
Impact Report for the proposed project identified as the Ca:
. 'Oaks Master Development Plan, which lies on the north side (
,Palomar Airport Road between El Camino Real and. Linda Vista
and more precisely shown on the plat marked Exhibit "A", at,
hereto and made a part hereof: and
WHEREAS, the Consultant has the qualifications to prep'
. the Economic Impact Report; and
WHEREAS, the Consultant represents that neither he nor
member of his staff has performed any work on the proposed :
has no understanding with the applicant or any expectation (
working for the applicant in the future on said project and
not bben employed by the applicant upon any project within
years last past: and
WHEREAS, it is understood that the Consultant shall be
independent contractor of the City;
.NOW, THEREFORE.. in consideration of their mutual coven
and conditions, the parties hereto agree as follows:
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(1) ,DUTIES OF THE CONSULTANT: Consultant shall prepare a
Land Use and Public Facility Economic Impact Report for
the. subject project in accord with paragraph 2B of Sect
21.38.060 of Chapter 21.38 of Title, 21 of the Carlsbad
Municipal Code. In carrying out this obligation the
Consultant ' s dutie,s shall include the following :
(a) The Consultant shall, (1) collect all required data
(2) Make all required analyses; (3) appear and be
prepared to answer questions and present testimony
on the Land Use and Public Facility Economic Impac
Report at at least one public hearing each before
Planning Commission and the City Council prior to
acceptance of the report: (4) make all reports nec
essary to comply with the requirements of this sec
Before preparing the final report, the Consultant
submit ten copies of a preliminary report to the
Planning Director for staff'review.
(b) Consultant shall prepare a final report in complia
with the Work Program marked Exhibit "B", attached
and made a part hereof. The Consultant shall subrr
to City thirty-five copies plus a reproducible mas
of the final report to the City.
(2) DUTIES OF THE CITY
(a) The City will make payment to the Consultant as pr
vided for in this agreement.
(b) The City will make available to the Consultant an1
document, studies, or other information in its
possession related to the proposed project.
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.(c) The City will review the Preliminary Report present
by the Consultant within fourteen working days of
: it's receipt and make written comments to the
Consultant within this time period.
(3) TERMINATION OF AGREEMENT
The City may terminate this agreement at any time by
giving written notice to the Consultant of such termina.
and specifying the effective date thereof, at least
fifteen days before the effective date of such terminat
In that event, all finished or unfinished documents and
other materials prepared pursuant to this agreement sha
at the option of the City, become its property.
(4) -RELEASE OF INFORMATION BY CONSULTANT
Any reports, information or other data, prepared or
assembled by the Consultant under this agreement shall
not be made available to any individual or organization
by the Consultant without the prior written approval of
the City.
(5) OWNERSHIP, PUBLICATION, REPRODUCTION AND USE OF THE
RE;PORT AND OTHER MATERIAL
All documents and materials prepared pursuant to this
agreement are the property of the City. The City shall
have the unrestricted authority to publish, disclose, ,
distribute and otherwise use, in whole or in part, any
reports, data, or other materials prepared under this
agreement.
( 6 ) PAYMENT
The Consultant will be paid a maximum of $19,500 dolla1
.for all work necessary to carry out the requirements ~i
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this agreement. Actual payment shall be based on the
cost of the report based on the costs as set forth in
Exhibit "B". charges shall be billed on a monthly basj
on or before the 15th day of each calendar month folloi
any month in which Consultant performs services. Invo:
shall contain the following: (1) Each item of direct
salary costs showing the number of hours worked by eacl
person for whom a charge is made, together with the nai
of the work performed, (2) each item of direct nonsala~
costs, (3) an itemization of any misce1laneou.s consult:
services rendered containing the data set forth in (1)
(2) above. Invoices which. are not disputed in writing
the City and whom are more than 90 days past due shall
subject to interest charges at the rate of seven percel
per annum.
(7) TIME OF COMPLETION .
Time is of the essence in carrying out the terms of th:
agreement. Phases 1-111 as described in Exhibit llB" SI
be completed in no more than twelve (12) weeks after w:
. authorization by the City to commence work.
(8) LIMITS OF THE OBLIGATION
The limits of the obligation of the City under this ag:
is in the sum of $19,500 which amount is estimated to 1
sufficient to compensate the Consultant for all servicl
formed hereunder during the terms of this agreement.
event at any time it appears to the Consultant that sa
sum may not be sufficient, he shall immediately so not
the Planning Director. He will not perform any work o
any obligation beyond said sum of $19,500 without appr
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amendment to' this agreement.
(9) HOLD HARMLESS
The Consultant will idemnify the City against and hold.
it harmless from all and any cost, expense, or liabilit
for damages on account of:injury or death to persons OX
damage to property resulting from or arising out of or
in any way connected with the perf0rmanc.e by Consultant
of this agreement, including the defense of any action
arising therefrom. Consultant will reimburse the City
for all costs, expenses and losses incurred by it in cc
sequent of any claims, demands and causes of action whi
may be brought against it by a person arising out of th
performance by Consultant of this agreement.
10) INDEPENDENT CONTRACTOR.
Consultant in accordance with his status as an independ
contractor, covenants and,agrees that that he will cond
himself consistent with such status, that he will' neith
hold himself out as nor claim to be an officer or emplc
of the City by reason hereof, and that he will not by
reason hereof, make any claim, demand, or application t
. or for any right or privilege applicable to an officer
employee of the City including, but not.1imited to, WOL
compensation coverage, unemployment insurance benefits,
social security coverage, or retirement membership cred
11) ASSIGNMENT OF CONTRACT
Consultant shall not assign this .contract, or any part t
or monies due or to become due thereunder without the E
written consent of the City. . .
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12) .SUBCONTRACTING
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If the Consultant shall subcontract any of the work to
performed under this contract by Consultant, the Consul
shall be fully responsible to the City for the acts and
omissions of its subcontrdctor and of the persons eithe
directly 'or indirectly employed by its subcontractor, a
it is for the acts and omissions of persons directly em
by it. Nothing contained in this contract shall create
contractual relationship between any subcontractor of C
sulkant and the City. The Consultant shall bind every
contractor and every subcontractor of a subcontractor h
the terms.of this contract applicable to its work unles
spec2fically noted to the contrary in the subcontract i
question approved in writing by' the City.
13) PROHIBITED INTEREST
No official of the City who is authorized in such capac
and on behalf of the City to negotiate, make, accept or
approve, or to take part in negotiating, 'making, accept
or approving any architectural, engineering, inspection
construction, or material supply contract or any subcon
'. in connection with the construction of the project, sha
become 'directly or indirectly interested personally in
contract or in any part thereof.' No. officer, employee,
architect, attorney, engineer or inspector of or for th
City who is authorized in such executive, supervisory c
other similar functions in connection with the performa
. of this contract shall become directly or.indirectly ir
terested personally in this contract 0.r any part there
14) VERBAL AGREEMENT OR CONVERSATION ..
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No verbal agreement or conversation with any officer,
agent or employee of the City, either before, during
or after the execution of this contract, shall affect
or modify any of-the terms or obligations herein con-
tained, nor such verbal agreement ‘or conversation entit
the Consultant to any additional payment whatsoever und
the terms of this contract.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties hereto have executed this ag
on the day and year’first above written.
CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal Corporation of the State of California
BY ROBERT C. FRAZEE, Mayor ATTEST :
MARGAmT E. ADAMS, City Clerk
ASHLEY ECONOMIC SERVICES, IK
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BY
’ APPROVED AS TO FORM:
VINCENT F. BIONDO, JR.
City Attorney
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1 wiegnity map master dewgUopmetnt piam
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prrpored for ecember 17,1976 . santa ,fe company
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EXHIBIT IBr
WORK PROGRAM.
1. SCOPE OF CONSULTANT SERVICES. The Consultant shall prov
professional services necessary for the completion of the Land Us
and Public Facilities Economic Impact Analysis of the Carlsbad Oa ..
Master Plan as described in Phase I through I11 of Consultant's P
posal of February 1, 1977, and more particularly as follows!
PHASE I - LAND USE ANALYSIS
The initial phase of the Study shall involve an analysis and proj
of the land uses by category for the subject property. Based on
projected demand, supply, market strategy and other key factors,
annualized absorption shall be determined. The San Diego comprek
Planning Organization models for projecting population and employ
(IPEF) and land use (PLUM) shall be analyzed for applicability to
project.
. . A. Housing
. 1. Demand - An analysis and projection of population/househc
income, employment, propensity. to purchase versus rent an
related factors in the North County area and the Carlsbad
Oaks sector. Of particular importance will be market seg
mentation relative to the demand for primary housing, sec
homes, resort housing and retirement units. The end prod
of this analysis will be schedules indicating probable ak
sorbtion by type, density, occupancy status, general size
and related factors.
2, Supply - An analysis of present and probable future projc
similar and/or competitive in scope to the project. Detz
analysis will be made of location, probable offering, tin
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price ranges and related factors.
3. Market Strategy - An analysis of the probable corporate g
degree of aggressiveness, ,strength of merchandising, degr
of sophistication and other factors which will determine
probable relative strength in the market place for Carlsk
Oaks e
. 4. ConchsiOn - A series of projections for the project in t
.. of ranges under varying alternative assumptions as to the
absorPf-iOn rates for each type of pl'anned housing project
throughout the development. These projections will inclu
the use of the most probable projection as well as the
conceivable highs and lows which could occur under varyin
econom'ic conditions.
B. Commercial Service Center .
1. Demand - An analysis and projection of all economic eleme
relative to the demand for commercial space including ret
restaurants, and service facilities and, possibly, genera
purpose or medical/dental office space. Indicators to be
examined will include resident and visitor purchasing pou
projected distribution of retail/service expenditures, of
.related employment expansion and other factors. The end
product oY this phase of-the study will be annualized
schedule of demand for space in each of the relevant corn
categories.
- 2. Supply - An analysis of' the present and anticipated futur
supply of competitive facilites in .terms of.location, lam
use.mix, evident strength and impact on the-property.
3. Market Strategy - A determination of the apparent strateg
to be utilized by Carlsbad Oaks 'management to merchandise ..
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commercial facilities. The agressiveness .and degree of
sophistication involved will have a critical impact on th
potential absorption of these land uses.
4. Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a
schedule of probable absorption for each of the proposed
commercial land uses at Carlsbad Oaks will be prepared wi
a most probable absorption level projected along with pot
high and low levels.
C. Industrial Sector
1. ,Demand - An analysis and projection of economic factors F
tinent to the demand for industrial acreage and/or buildi
as appropriate. Key factors will include the projected L
of expansion in the manufacturing, wholesaling, and warel:
ing industries in particular, as these groups form the ba
for industrial park development. Additionally, the anal3
._ will cover other industries, particularly complementary 5
.which would represent potential. Special -emphasis would
placed on existing'absorption trends among industrial par
. operations throughout Northern. San Diego County. The end
product of this phase of the study.wil1 be an annualized
schedule of demand for space/acreage for in,dustrial use E
Carlsbad Oaks.
. . 2. Supply - Analysis of the present and anticipated future 5
of competitive facilities in terms of location, market
strength, land available and tot.al impact on the propertJ
. 3.' .Market Strategy - A determination of the apparent strates
be utilized by Carlsbad Oaks management to merchandise tk
industrial property-
4, Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a sc
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of. probable absorption for the industrial sector of .
the property will be prepared with a most probable absorb-
1evel.projected along with the potential high ana low lev(
PHASE I1 - CARLSBAD OAKS PLAN FEASIBILITY
Following completion of the land use analysis in Phase I, a study
these results will be made in relation to the Carlsbad Oaks Plan
follows:
A. Determination of Feasibility - The relative marketability of
the various land use elements must balance, within reasonable
limits, the allowances for the specified land uses in the pla
Rapid absorption of one phase, combined with extensive delays
. other areas, would suggest a number of problems relative to t
economic feasibility of the project and the feasibility of pr
viding public facilities in a timely manner. In the event th
the plan is generally 'marketable', the study may well procee
Phase I11 - the public facilities analysis.
B, ' Consideration gf Land Use Alternatives - In the event, howeve
that the land use plan does not balance programmed absorption
rates, alternative land use allocations must be considered.
study of such alternative allocation will be conducted, and F;
be presented for agreement among the consultant, the staff ar
city council prior to commencing subsequent phases of the stx
.' The reponsibility for this particular phase of the study will
with the firm Haworth/Anderson/Lafer.
PHASE 111 - PUBLIC FACILITY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
This phase of the study will analyze in detail the economic and 1
impact of the agreed upon plan. First-, will be considered the Sf
levels and costs, followed by capital expenditure requirements a1
revenues.
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A. Service kequirements/Costs
1. Quantitative Factors - The initial phase of this section
the report will involve an analysis of the physical requj
ments for service to the new area and the cost levels in-
volved, as follows:
a. Trend Analysis - The. municipal and various special
district budgets will be analyzed over time to detern
appropriate per unit (per acre/per dwelling unit) COS
for varying sectors of the planned new area. Differ6
tation will be made between the elements of cost incl
as t~ real marginal costs, inflation, upgrading of ex
and related factors.
b. Consultation with Agency Staff - Each operating depax
of the City, the special agencies and the School Dist
will be contacted relative to service requirements ar
costs for Carlsbad Oaks. Where municipal accounting
systems do not allow precise cost breakdowns in terms
varying land uses, additional data on operations will
developed as necessary to make realistic estimates fc
servicing expanded areas of the City.
c. Carlsbad Oaks as a Unique Sector - A significant amot
the analysis of service levels and respective costs F
relate to the manner in which Carlsbad Oaks may be dj
entiated from the balance of Carlsbad. A careful ret
of the existing municipal budget would allow general
estimates of unit costs for serving t-he varying types
of land uses in the City. However, significant chanc
in these elements relative to planned new.areas in tt
City will be identified and analyzed.
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d. Variations in Service Requirements - As outlined unde
. the land use analysis, consideration will be given to
implications of varying service .requirements related
conceivable variations in the rate of absorption of 1
uses. While the most probable rates of.use may be co
sidered, consideration will be given the necessary re
to market activities which either speed up or slow do
development of the project.
e. Services to be Covered - The analysis will consider a
vices now made available by the City, the special dis
-and the School District. Additonally, consideration
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be given to added facilities and/or servic6.s- which th
and/or acjencies may now be considering, Staff will k
sulted to determine those areas which should be added
existing spectrum.
2. Qualitative Factors
This phase of the study will consider the existing qu
level of services to provide a comparison with prevai
per unit costs. Haworth/Anderson/Lafer will be prima
responsible for this'section of the report.
a. Present Standards - A comprehensive analysis of F
service standards throught the City and the speci
districts ..
b. Comparison of Service Levels - An analysis of thos
prevailing in relation to comparable Southern Cali
communities to identify similarities and/or major
entials.
c. Municipal/Agency Policies - A review of all studi
ments, policies and proposals for changes in serv
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, levds andlor upgraded services throughout the comur
d. Discussion with staff - An exploration with municipal
agency staff relative to desired changes and the incc
oration of such changes in the study.
e. Specific Services for Carlsbad Oaks - An analysis of
ceivable changes/revisions in service level standards
would be particularly applicable to the property.
f. Determination of Service Level Requirements - A stud1
termine whether existing services should be applied c
what extent new service levels and their correspondir
will be applicable. Of particular importance in this
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of the study will be consideration of the implicatior
valved in changed and/or upgraded service levels for
Oaks.
B. Projected Capital Facility Expenditures
This phase.of the report will consider the capital requiremer
their respective costs for, as follows:
1. Capital Requirement - An analysis and projection of all
municipal/agency/school district physical requirements tk
build-out of Carlsbad Oaks. Covered in the analysis will
.items as police/fire substations, parks, streets, utilitl
systems, schools, libraries and any other.pertinent inves
in the community infrastructure.
2. Responsible Party - An analysis of each expenditure in tc
of the parties to construct and to fund the project. On-
requirements will be generally those of the developers, t
special water/sewer system or other items may require aye
investment agreements, shared costs and related factors.
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3. Public Agency Financinq - For those investments to be pro
by public agencies, an analysis of the most appropriate f
ancing vehicles must be considered to include bonding,
special assessment districts, tax rates or other factors.
Consideration must, in addition, be given to the poten
for participation by other agencies in terms of grants or
loans including the federal government,-the state or the
County of San Diego.
4. Cost Allocation - As indicated in the Request for Proposa
There may well be circumstances wherein financial respons
for particular investments must be shared among Carlsbad
and other areas. An analysis w.ill be made of alternative
ocation schemes to identify the most appropriate for each
particular investment.
C. Public Facility Revenues a ~ ~~
This phase of the report will consist of an analysis and proj
tion of revenues to accrue to the municipality, the special
districts and the School District from the existing and propo
sections of Carlsbad Oaks as follows:
1. 'Revenues per unit - A determination of the most appropria
per dwelling unit and/or per acre revenues to be derived
from each budgeted item. Revenues as property and sales
may be precisely determined for each individual project.
However, a number of other revenues must utilize the per
averages in the absense of specific data.
. 2,. Sales Tax Allocation - The philosophy utilized in the all
cation of sales tax revenues will materially affect the
apparent fiscal impact of individual residen'tial or come
developments. The key factors in this allocation will be
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origin of the funds which produce the tax revenues. Thes
factors and their effects on revenue will be clearly doc-
umented in the final report.
D. Public Facility Cost/Revenue Projections
Based on the foregoing sets of analysis, the cost/revenue bal
. for each phase of the proposed project will be prepared. The
precise format will be determined in consultation with city E
The final report will provide a written methodology on the 1~
. use and fiscal impact analysis to allow staff the opportunity
provide necessary revisions in the report at a later date and
allow use of the economic/fiscal models for other community
. development glans.
The findings o€ the Consultant study shall be documented in a
final report which will include a clear summary of the Broad
economic base of the North County, the limitations .of the met
ologies employed, the key issues to .be resolved by the Planni
. Commission/City Council, and the basic. conclusions and/or rec
ommendations of the study. A written summary of the consulta
findings pertaining to Phases I and I1 shall be submitted fol
completion of work on Phase 11,
2. COM~ENSATTON. - Fees for consulting services provided in p
1.above shall be determined.on the basis of the professio
service rates listed below, and by the direct nonsalary c
as herehafter defined, except that the total fee for con
'services shall not exceed $19,500,
a. Professional services shall'be compensated at applica
hourly professional rates according to the following
schedule :
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Principals $40.00
Associates $25.00
Senior Associates ' $30.00
-b. Direct nonsalary costs shall include the following:
Services directly applicable to the work such as computer
rental and programming costs associated with analysis for
the project; typing and other direct secretarial costs not
applicable to direct overhead, to be compensated at 'a rate
not to exceed $8.50 per hour; printing and other reproducj
costs associated with the final report, at a cost not to
exceed $600.00; miscellaneous photocopying at a rate not 1
exceed $00. IO per page; the use of any subcontractor; ider
ifiable communication expense such as long distance telepl
telgraph, cable, express charges and postage other than fc
general correspondence; living and traveling expenses of
employees when away from home offices on business connect(
with the work, except for automobile travel which shall b
at the rate of 15 cents per mile.
ACM/ar
3/9/77
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PROPOSAL FOR
AND
CARLSBAD OAKS LAND USE
PUBLIC FACILITY ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT
PREPARED FOR THE CITY OF CARLSBAD
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.. SUBMITTED BY
' ASHLEY ECONOMIC SERVICES, INC.
AND c
HA\4ORTH/ANDERSON/LAFER
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FEBRUARY 1977 - FEB PZ 1977
. C\T'{ OF CARkSBl planning Departme
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. . ashley economic services, inc. .
1151 dove street
suite 208
newport beach, cal 92660
(71 4) 752-501 2
' February 1, 1977
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Mr. B'ud Plender Acting Planning Director City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue
Carlsbad, California 92008
Dear Mr. Plender:
Enclosed is our proposal for the Carlsbad Oaks Land Use and Public Facility Econonic.Impact Report. The scope
of the s"tudy and the methodology p.aralle7 the La Costa
reduced, however, as the project is smaller and less complex. I. proposal. The time and budget requirements have been
If you have any questions or if'we may provide any additional information, please call me.
Sincerely, @& Dunham
. . ' President ..
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RJD/sah Enclosure
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TABLE OF CONTENTS ..
INTRODUCTION .................. 1 ..
PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM:
Phase I - Land Use Analysis .......... 4
Phase I1 - Plan Feasibility .......... 7
Phase I11 - Public Facility E'conomic Impact Analysis ......... 8
TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATED COSTS ...... .12
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. The primary objectives of the requested analysis are to test economic and fiscal feasibility of a Master Plan for Carlsba Oaks. Additionally, the study methodology for this report w provide a methodology and data base which will be applicable similar community analyses.
Ashley Economic Services, Tnc. has, during the.past five ye? conducted 42 studies related to this.type of.feasibility analysis for the public and private sector. To provide the type of meaningful results desired, there are a number of key requirements essential for the study. Examples include following:
A. Economic Analysis
1. A Sophisticated Land Use Forecast
The issues raised. by the. staff relative to the credibil- of long range forecasts are entirely appropriate. In tt dynamics of the urban growth scenarios of Southern Cali: meaningful land use forecasts require a substantial am01 of effort. All else being equal, it is apparent that tl accuracy will fluctuate in an inverse ratio to the time
probable activity wherein one may set confidence limits as to the actual occurrences. The key issue will, of c(
be the rates of absorption for various land use categor.
on the property. For each, a most probable absorption I
: be accompanied by a meaningful range indicating the scol possi bi 1 i ty -under varying economic conditions.
., ' . covered. However, it is important to establish ranges f
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2. The Implications of Error
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Following the determination of high and low sets of pro1 activity, it is.particularly important to understand im
in the absorption rates occur. In other words the "wha question series must be analyzed in relation to the eff ..on the decision-making process for the City of Carlsbad
.. cations to the public facility feasi,bility should varia
3, The Importance of Land Use Balance
Assuming the prJbability of varying 'absorption rates, t second major concept relates .to the reasonableness and economic balance of the end product. A number of tests relative to economic cornpati.bility should be applied ca
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4. The Synthesis of Theoretical De'mand Versus Actual Absor
The land use forecast must carefully relate the element potential, theoretical demand to .determine potentia2 la uses under varying sets of circumstances versus a detai. analysis of all actual absorption for land uses through the region. Those elements relative to long term 'trend
cyclical forces, irregular influences and -- often of g importance -- the intangible element of the public's at
* tude must be considered. .
5. The Importance of Market Strategy
". A key element in overall absorption .relates to the deve .. market strategy. The goals to be utilized, the scope o effort to achiev.e those goals, the degree of aggressive and the level of sophistication can all be key elements determining the.fina1 outcome.
B. Fiscal Analysis
1. The Strate-gic Importance of 'Cost .Allocation Methodology
One of the most 'important and often the most problematil
elements of a fiscal im'pact study relates to cost allocl
Generally, the issues of reve.nue assignment are clear CI The question of costs can be a different matter. Typic' municipal accounting systems do not provide the level o detail required to accurately assign costs to relative1 small units of the city. Special districts 'data may be similar. It is particularly important to consult exten with city staff, to outline clearly the alternative met fogies available and to insure agreement on the part of persons involved relative to the system to be used.
2. The Marginal Cost Concept
The most commonplace methodology for fiscal impact stud'
'. assigns prevailing average costs to existing sectors of
- community as well as planned, new areas. Often, the ecc
or diseconomies of scale tend to create 'a significant gi
between prevailing average costs and true marginal cost; During the past few years, municipal costs have risen SI stantially more than in proportion to the rate of growtl many cities involved. Inflation and upgraded services i two key .elements which have brought this about. Theref( it is particularly important to disaggregate budgeted c( increases to thoroughly understand the prob'able real co:
of serving .added areas. throughout .a comrunity.
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3. Sales Tax Allocation Methodology
While most revenues may.be assigned without difficulty t
appropriate land uses, the sales tax poses a question of philosophy, Typically, such revenues are assigned to .th
commercial sector -- a system which does not allow for
adjustment in the event of added residential development without added commercial. Similarly, if all such revenl
assigned to the residential. sector, the addition of new could not be accounted for in the revenue model. On thc
basis on long experience, AES believes that the origin c the funds should dictate the placement of credit. That sales tax revenues derived from expenditures of city res dents should be assigned back to their sector. Revenues spent by visitors, tourists or any other non-residents should be assigned to the commercial sector. By this
methodology, the system will allow.for increases in any sector of the economy without distortion.
4. The Cost Versus Quality of Available Services
It is mandatory to initially establish a cost of existir services in relation to their relative level of quality. A realistic appraisal must be-made to determine whether prevailing costs are appropriate for the assignment to new, developing areas. Considerations may relate to comparisons with comparable communities; discussions wil staff, planning commission or city council, .or comparisc with a set of traditionally desired standards.
5. The Issue of .Computerization
. For the past four years, AES has uti1 ized a computer moc to .perfor.m fi'scal. impact analyses.. Such a model could \i be adopted -to the City of .Carlsbad, the School Djstrict
' the special agencies at a moderate cost. In the event i number of alternatives and therefore iterations are de-s.
.. computerization can prqvide a highly cost-effective too' However, the start-up costs can b.e significant and a mal
'. operated system.wil1 be significantly less expensive fo~ studies involving the analysis of a limited number of a' natives. A recent, very detailed analysis performed fol
. ' , the City of Newport Beach to analyze new developments il cated that computerization wo'uld not be cost-effective i present- A decision regarding mechanization of the fisl impact analysis system need not be considered until the study is well under way.
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PROPOSED MORK PROGRAM
The following paragraphs will.p?ovide a brief outline of the key elements involved in the requested work program. As ind cated in the Request for Proposal,. substantially more extens details relative to each step of the program can be provided at later date.
.PHASE I - LAND USE ANALYSIS
The initial phase of the study will ihvolve an analysis and jection of the land use by category for the subject property Based on the projected demand, supply, market strategy and o key factors, an annualized absorption will be determincd . The. San Diego Comprehensive Planning Organization mode;s 1:::-
(PLUM) wiil be cinaly,zed for applicability to the project.
..~ro.-iectina BoPulation and employment (IPEF) and land UJC
A. Housing
1. Demand - An analysis and projection of population/hc
holds, income, employment, propensity to purchase VE rent and related factors in th.e North County area ar the Carlsbad Oaks sector. Of particular importance
market segmentation relative to the demand for prima ho.using, second homes, resort housi.ng and retirement units. The end product of this analysis will be sch
dules indicating probable abs'orption by type, densit occupancy status, general size and related factors.
2. Supply - An analysis of present and probable future
jects similar and/or competitive in scope to the prc Detailed analyses will be made of location, probable
..' -offering, timing, price ranges and related.
3. Market Strategy - An analysis of the probable corpor goals, degree of aggressiveness, strength of merc.han dising, degr-ee of sophistication and other factors h will determine probable relative.strength in the mar
. place for Carlsbad Oaks.
4. Conclusion - A series of projections-for the project terms of ranges under varying alternative assumptior to the absorption rates for each typ.e of planned hoL
tact to emphasize the use of the most probabZe proje versus the conceigabZe highs and lows which could oc under varying economic conditions.
project throughout the dev,elopment. Again, it is in
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e - .. Commercial Service Center
1. Demand - An analysis and projection of all economic e,lements relative to the demand for commercial space
including retail, restaGrants, and service facilitie
and, possibly, general purpose or medicaljdental office space. Indicators to be examined would inclu resident and visitor purchasing power, projected distribution of retail/service expenditures, office-
.related employment expansion and other factors. The end product of this phase of the study would be an annualized schedule of demand for space in each of the relevant commercial. categories.
2. Supply - An analysis of the present and anticipated supply of competitive facilities in terms of locatio land use mix, evident strength and impact on the pro
3. Market Strategy - A determination of the apparent strategy to be utilized by Carlsbad Oaks management merchandise commercial facilities. The aggressivene and degree 0.f sophistication involved will have a
critical impact on the potential absorption of these - land uses.
4, Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies,
a schedule of probable absorption for each of the proposed commercial land uses .at Carlsbad .Oaks woulc
be prepared with a most ppobabZe level versus the potential highs and lows. .
Industrial. Sector.
1. Demand - An analysis and projection of 'economic factors pertinent to the demand for industrial acrea
- and/or buildings as appropriate. Key factors will concern the projected rate of expansion in the manufacturing, wholesaling, and warehousing industri
. in particular, as these groups form the basis for industrial park development. Additionally, the anal] will cover other industries, particularly complement groups which would represent potential. Special emphasis would be placed on existing absorption trer
among industrial park operations ,throughout Northerr
San Diego County. The end product of this phase of study would be an annual.ized schedule of demand for
space/acreage for industrial use at Carlsbad Oaks.
2. Supply - Analysis of the present and.anticipated fuf supply of conpetitive facilities -in terms of locatic
. market strength, land available and total impact on property.
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3. -Market Strategy - A determination of the apparent
.. strategy to be utilized by Carlsbad Oaks management to merchandise the industrial .property.
4. Conclusion - Based on t;te foregoing sets of studies, a schedule of probable absorption for the industrial sector of the property would be prepared with a most prababZe level versus the potential highs and 1
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PHASE 1r.- CARLSBAD OAKS PLAN FEASIBILITY
Following completion of'the .land use analysis in Phase I, a .study of these results must be made in relation to the Carls
Oaks plan as follows:
A. Determination of Feasibility - The relative marketabilit the various land use elements must balance, within reasc limits, the allowances for the specified land uses in th
plan. Rapid absorption of one phase, combined with exte sive delays in other areas, would suggest a number of pr fems relative to the economic feasibility of the project and the feasibility of providing public facilities in a
timely manner. In the event that the plan is generally
public facilities analysis.
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"marketable", the study may well proceed to Phase I11 -
B. Consideration of Land Use Alternatives - In the event, t- that the land use plan does not balance programmed absor 'rates, alternative land use allocation must be consider€ Conceivably, minor revisions would be appropriate. HOWE from the viewpoint of this p.roposa1, it appears prudent suggest a study ph.ase wherein major revisions are .consic Prior to commencing subsequent phases of the study, tota agr-eement among the consultant, the staff and city courtc
is essential relative to the 'plan. The responsibility 1 particular phase of the study would be with Haworth/Ande Lafer -- a firm with exceptional expertise in the area c
master plan analysis:
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PHASE 111 - PUBLIC FACILITY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
'This phase of the study will. analyze in detail the economic fiscal impact of the agreed upon plan. First, will be consi the service levels and costs,'followed by capital expendjtur requi rements and revenues.
A. Service Requirements/Costs
1. Quantitative Factors - The initia'l phase of this sec
' of the report will involve an analysis of the physic requirements for service to the new area and the cos
levels involved, as follows:
a. Trend Analysis - The municipal and various spec' district budgets will be analyzed over time to (
. mine appropriate per unit ('pe; acre/per dwell in! unit) costs -for varying sectors of the planned
. new area. As mentioned, it will be particularl!
. important to differentiate the elements of cost increases as to rea! marginal costs, inflation,
upgrading .of services .and related factors.
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Consultation with Agency S,taff - It will be mandatory to consult 'at length with each operating department of the City, the special agencies and the School District relative to se. requirments and costs for Cirlsbad Oaks. As indicated, municipal accounting systems general do not allow precise cost breakdowns in terms o varying l.and uses. Therefore, it is necessary obtain addi-tional data as to. operations. For example, many police and fire departments have computerized response data which indicates thei exact workload, the location, the type of land use involved and the cost involved. . From this information, realistic estimates can be made io servicing expanded areas of the City.
c. Carlsbad Oaks as a Unique Sector - A'significar amount of the analysis of service levels and rc costs will relate to the manner in which Carlst
Oaks nay be differentiated from the balance of Carlsbad. A careful review of the existing mu] budget would allow general estimates of unit cc serving the varying types of land uses in the 1 However, there may well be significant changes these elements relative to planned new areas.
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. d. Variations in Service Requirements - As outlinec under the land use analysis, consideration must given to the. implications of varying service re(
ments related to conceivabqe variations in the .I of absorption of land uses. Mile the most pro; rates of use may be considered, it will be part important to consider the necessary reactions tl ket activities which either speed up or slow dor development of the. project. Bond financing reql ments, for examp.le, can be a crit.ica1 consideral
with respect to timing.
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e. Services to be Covered - The analysis will cons:
special districts and the School District. Add' ally, conside-ration may well be given to added 1 ities and/or services which the City and/or ager may now be considering. Consultation vdith stafl
will determine those areas which should be addec
., a22 services now made available by the City, the
the existing spectrum.
2. Qualitative Factors
ihis phase of the study will consider the existing q level of services to provide a comparison with preva . per unit costs. Hahorth/Anderson/Lafer will be prim responsible for this sect.ion of the report,
a. Present Standards .- A comprehensive analysis of
- sent service standards throughout the City and t special districts.
b. Comparison of Service Levels - An analysis of th prevail.ing in relation to comparable Southern California communities to identify sirni.larities major differentials. ..
c. . Municipal/Agency Policies - A review of all stud documents, policies and proposals for changes in .:service levels and/or upgraded services through0 the community.
d, Discussions with Staff.- An exploration with mun cipal/agency staff relative to desired changes a the incorporation of such changes in the study.
e. Specific Services for Carlsbad Oak.s..- An analysi
conceivable changes/revisions in serv,ice .level standards which would be particL:lar.ly applicable to the property,
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T. Determination of Service Level Requireme.nts - A study to determine whether existing services sho be applied or to what extent new service levels their correspondins costs will be applicable.. . 0
particular importance in this phase of the studq be consideration of the implications involved ir changed and/or upgraded service levels for Carls
B. Projected Capital Facility Expenditures
This phase of the report will consider.the capital requi and their respective costs for, as follows:
1. Capital Requirements - An analysis. and projection of
rnunicipal/agency/school distric.t physical requiremer
through build-out of Carlsbad Oaks. Covered in the will be items as police/fire substaTions, parks, str utility systems, schools, libraries and any other PE
. tin,ent investments in the community infrastructure.
2. Responsible Party - An ana.lysis of each expenditure
. On-site requirements will be generally those of the terms of the parties to construct and to fund the pr
developers, though special water/sewer system or otk items may require agency investment agreements, shar costs and related factors.
. 3. Public Agency Financing - For those investments to f provided by public agencies, an analysis of the nlosi
include bonding, special assessment districts, tax K
or other factors. Consideration must, in addition,
in terms of grants or loans including the federal gc ment, the state or the County of San Diego.
appropriate fjnancing vehicles must be considered tc
.. given. to the potential for participation by other as
' 4. .Cost Allocation - As indicated in the Request for Pr there may well be circumstances wherein financial rz sibility-for particular investments must be shared z C.arlsbad Oaks and other. areas. An analysis will be of alternative allocation schemes to identify the mc appropriate for each part.icular investment.
. C. Public Facility Revenues
This phase of the report will consist of an analysis. an( jecti'on of revenues to accrue to the municipality, the :
districts and the School Distri'ct from the existing and
D sections of Carlsbad Oaks as follows:
1. Revenues per Unit - A determination of the most appl . p,riate per dwel11:'ng un'it and/or .per acre revenues tc derived from each budgeted item. Revenues as propel
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and sales tax may be precisely determined for each
individual project. However, a number of other rev nues must utilize the per unit averages in the abse of specific data.
2. Sales Tax Allocation - As mentioned, the philosophy
utilized in the allocation of sales tax revenues wi materially affect the apparent fiscal impact of ind
key factors in this allocation should be the origin
of the funds which produce the tax revenues.
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vidual residential or 'commercial developments. The
D. Public Facility Cost/Revenue Projections
Based on the ,foregoing sets of 'analyses, the cost/reven balance for each phase of the prop.osed projectwill be
Prepared. Whi1.e the precise format may be determined
at a later date, AES has found that determination of th costhevenue balance at five year intervals and -- most
PortantlY -- upon completion of all improvements is the most meaningful.
The final. report will provide a documented summary of a assumptions, calculations and conclusions. Of particul importance will be the policy questions concerning the
council.
In addition, the,report will provide a written method01 the l.and use and fiscal impact analysis to allow staff opportunfty to provide necessary revisions in the repor
a later date and to allow use of the economic/fiscal mc for other community development plans.
.. ject to be resolved by,the planning commission and the
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TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATE COSTS ..
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Time Schedule
T'he Master Plan and the Industrial Park Study report .
can be completed by Ashley Economic Services, Inc.
- and Haworth/Anderson/Lafer within the stipulated
12 week time frame. Only in the event-of prolonged delays, requested revision in the report or the requirement for extensive revisions. in the land use plait0 provide acceptable marketability, would the
.time frame exceed this period. The studies for the Master Plan area alone would require 9-10 weeks.
Budget Requirments
The Master Plan and the Industr.ia1 Park study would be performed for a maximum budget of $19,500. Precise .costs will be contingent upon a number of factors such as land use plan revisions as mentioned, the number of copies of the final report required, the number of publi
The. studies for the Master Plan area alone would requirt a maximum budget of $16,500.
. presentations required and related elements.
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