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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1977-10-18; City Council; 5060-1; Modified series IV Population Forecasts* .' ? d CITY OF CARLSBAD -- AGENDA BILL NO. LTo&o Ayy&-&L*L c DATE : October 18 , 1977 @. c Initial: Dept. 3d. C. Atty. DEPARTMENT: Pub1 ic Works . C, Mgr. 3 - Subject: MODIFIED SER.IES IV POPULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN & OTHER PLANNING NEEDS ,. _. Statement of the Matter On'May 17, 1977, City staff and CPO presented to the Carlsbad City Council the process involved in developing a set of population forecasts referred to as the Series IV Forecasts. These forecasts are intended to be used as a general guide in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan (2081, Air Quality Main- tenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review, and other regional and local planning work. After City staff review of the revised Series- IV Forecasts, staff requested CPO to make additional revisions taking into consideration new data that had recently become available. CPO has responded to our request and has resolved major issues with the exception of future household sizes which determine actual population. This issue will be resolved as part of future population forecasts planned by CPO within the next two years. In the interim, the population forecasts have been stated in a range to facilitate agreement on a specific household size. Staff also notes that the present revised Series IV Forecasts do not take into consideration the present sewer moratorium, effects qf the Coastal Act or the effects on population of alternate approved sewer systems within the community. Exhibits I. CPO letter dated October 5, 1977 . 2. Staff report dated September 29, 1977 3. Resolution N0.,.33 7 Recommendation . If Counci I concurs, they should adopt Resolution No.JJ37 approving the @ revised Series IV Population Forecasts with the qualifications contained therein. Council Action: 10-18-77 Council adopted Resolution Mo. 5237, approving Modified Series IV Population Forecasts for the City General Plan Area for use in the Areawide !later Quality Management Plan and other Regional and local planning needs. eo. SAN DIEGO REGION'S COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING ORGANIZATION Suite 524 Security Pacific Plaza 1200 Third Avenue San Diego, California 92101 (714) 233-521 1 October 5, 1977 Mr. Paul Bussey City Manager City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm St. Carlsbad, CA 92008 Dear Mr. Bussey: As you are aware, CPO staff has been working with your planning staff to pre- pare what we refer to as Series IV population forecasts. the CPO Board of Directors instructed the CPO staff to distribute the Series IV population forecasts to the cities and to seek approval of theforecasts from each city council, Subsequent to local jurisdiction approval, the forecasts will be used in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan (208) and other regional planning work. They will also be available for your local planning needs. At its July meeting, The following table presents the forecasts for the City of Carlbad's general plan area. We are requesting that your Council adopt these forecasts for the uses cited in the attached resolution provided by your staff. General Plan Area 1975 1985 1995 Tot a1 Population 19,700 39,400 63,900 Households 7,200 17,300 29,200 As the resolution states, these forecasts represent the low end of a total population range which is dependent on changes in future family size within your planning area. work closely to refine family size assumptions before the population forecasts are revised in late 1978. During the next year, City of Carlbad and CPO staffs will We appreciate the excellent cooperation and support that we have received from your staff- -in particular Mr. Joe Sandy--throughout the forecasting MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar. El Caion, Escondido, Imperial Beach. La Mesa, National City. Oceanside. San Diego. San Marcos, Vista, and County of San Diego / EX-OFFICIO MEMBER: California Department of Transportation / HONORARY MEMBER: Tijuana, E. CFA. , '. ' Mr. Paul Bussey October 5, 1977 h 2. work. relationship with your City--and a realistic set of forecasts which reflect local plans and inter jurisdictional impacts. I am confident that this process has helped to develop a healthy working Sincerely, RICHARD J. HUFF Executive Director RJH/RA / sh copy to: James Hagaman Ron Beckman Joe Sandy MEMORANDUM TO: Public Works Administrator FROM: Project Consultant DATE : September 29, 1977 SUBJECT: Series IV Forecasts CPO has revised the Series IV forecasts as per our request of September 12, 1977. The new forecasts for our General Plan Area are: D.U. HH . POP. 1975 7.240 2:72 19,700 1985 17,268 2:28 39,371 1995 29,160 2.19 63,860 After lengthy discussion with CPO and extensive analysis, I feel that the forecasts for dwelling units are as adequate as possible considering ex- isting data. occupied dwelling units per year. All data at this time verifies an ap- proximate 1,000 unit per year increase. When applying a 7% to 8% vacancy factor, this means the construction of approximately 1,100 units per year. From 1975 to 1985 the forecasts indicate an increase of 1,002 While agreeing with the dwelling unit forecasts, I do question the house- hold factor used to arrive at the forecast population. CPO estimates a drop in household size from our 2.72 level in 1975 (Special Census data) to 2.28 in 1985. CPO sites the increasing divorce rate and decreased family size trend as part of the reason for the dropping household size. A1 though national and state estimates verify this trend toward smaller households, the drop to 2.28 in 1985 might be overstating the issue. CPO estimates the household size for the entire San Diego region will be 2.5 in 1985. When applying 2.5 to the 1985 dwelling unit forecast of 17,268, the forecast population increases 3,799 to 43,170. tion increase is substantial and the discrepancy cannot be overlooked. To arrive at an acceptable household size would require considerable time, and even then future factors affecting it may change. In summary, I be- lieve our course of action regarding adoption of the Series IV forecasts should be: The popula- 1. 2. 3. Approve a range of population due to the household factor discrep- ancy; State as part of our resolution our approval for two years only; and Request a forecast revision at least every two years. JS : veb Attachment D.U. HH. POP. POPULATION RANGE GIVEN VARIOUS HOUSEHOLD FACTORS 1975 1985 1995 7,240 17,268 29,160 2.72 2.28-2.66 2.19-2.60 19,700 39,371 -45,932 63,860-75,816 TOTAL POPULATION AT END OF 1977 Total D.U. Completed* 1975 (Special Census 3/31 /75) 1975 (4/1/75 through 12/31/75) 1976 1977 (1/1/77 through 8/31/77) 8,999 770 828 848 11,445 11,445 - 7% (vacancy rate) = 10,647 (occupied) 10,647 x 2.66 (per household) = 28,321 (population) Assuming the completion of 400 units through the end of 1977, the total population should be between 29,000 to 30,000 people. *As per 1975 Special Census and Building Department records. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ,11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 RESOLUTION NO. 5237 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING MODIFIED SERIES IV POPULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND OTHER REGIONAL AND LOCAL PLANNING NEEDS WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the Comprehensive Planning Organization to update population forecasts for the San Diego region using available 1975 census information and City of Carlsbad staff input; and WHEREAS, the Series IV Population Forecasts may provide a key to the planning of future sewage collection and treatment facilities as a component of the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan being prepared by the Compre- hensive Planning Organization with the assistance of local agenc Air'Quality Maintenance Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive Organization and the Air Pollution Control District with the ass es an3 the PI anni ng stance of local agencies; and WHEREAS, local agreement on a consistent set of forecasts may eliminafe the question about population growth often raised by the Federal and State agencies which fund wastewater treatment facili.ties,'dnd hence save tinie and money for local jurisdictions seeking such funding; and WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad recognizes that the need for additional inforrriation concerning household size creates the s tuation whereby the population forecasts are stated as a range dependen on varying household sizes; and WHEREAS, the forecast ranges for Carlsbad's General Plan area are as fol lows: Occup i ed I975 Dwel I ing Units 7,240 I985 17,268 - Average Househo I d 2.72 2.28-2.66 u I995 - ,, 29,160 2.19-2.60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1E 19 2c 21 22 2: 24 25 26 27 2e , * 6. I375 I985 I995 Fopulation 19,700 39,37 I -45,9 32 63,860-75,816; and WHEREAS, these forecasts will enable the City of Carlsbad to utilize the information in local planning and decision-making to assure that local plans will complement each other in the attainment of local and regional development objectives; and WHEREAS, the adoption of these forecasts will have no effect on any State subven-kions received by the Ciiy cf Carlsbad; , NOW, THEREFORE, 6E IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of Carlsbad hereby: I. Adopts the modified Series IV Population Forecasts as contained herein for the Carlsbad General Plan area and certifies them to the Compre- two (2) years on 3. Reques two (2) years in nize the effects hensive Planning Organization for use in the Areawide Water Quality Manacemept Plan, Air Quality Maintenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review Procedures, regional transportation ana housing planning, and the othei- regional studies described i n the adopted Comprehens i ve PI ann i ng Organ i zat ion FY 1978-8 I dvera I I Work Frog ram ; 2. Accepts the modified Series IV Population Forecasts as valid for y; and s that these population forecasts be updated at least every. order to more effectively, as data becomes available, recog- of the City of Carlsbad's sewer moratorium, the effects of the Coastal Act areas and the effects on population of alternate approved sewer systems within the community. Y PASSED, APPROVED, AND ADOPTED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad at a regular meeting held the 18th day of octo ber , 1977 lowing vote to wit: by the fo xxxxxxx ' w , t" 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 2c 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 ,I AYES : Councilmen Frazee, Lewis, Packard and Skotnicki NOES : None ABSENT: Councilwoman Casler ATTEST : (SEAL) c