HomeMy WebLinkAbout1977-10-18; City Council; 5060-1; Modified series IV Population Forecasts* .' ?
d CITY OF CARLSBAD --
AGENDA BILL NO. LTo&o Ayy&-&L*L c
DATE : October 18 , 1977
@. c
Initial:
Dept. 3d.
C. Atty.
DEPARTMENT: Pub1 ic Works . C, Mgr. 3 -
Subject: MODIFIED SER.IES IV POPULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE
IN THE AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN & OTHER PLANNING NEEDS
,. _. Statement of the Matter
On'May 17, 1977, City staff and CPO presented to the Carlsbad City Council the
process involved in developing a set of population forecasts referred to as
the Series IV Forecasts. These forecasts are intended to be used as a general
guide in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan (2081, Air Quality Main-
tenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review, and other regional and local planning work.
After City staff review of the revised Series- IV Forecasts, staff requested
CPO to make additional revisions taking into consideration new data that had
recently become available. CPO has responded to our request and has resolved
major issues with the exception of future household sizes which determine
actual population. This issue will be resolved as part of future population
forecasts planned by CPO within the next two years. In the interim, the
population forecasts have been stated in a range to facilitate agreement on
a specific household size.
Staff also notes that the present revised Series IV Forecasts do not take into
consideration the present sewer moratorium, effects qf the Coastal Act or the
effects on population of alternate approved sewer systems within the community.
Exhibits
I. CPO letter dated October 5, 1977 .
2. Staff report dated September 29, 1977
3. Resolution N0.,.33 7
Recommendation
. If Counci I concurs, they should adopt Resolution No.JJ37 approving the @ revised Series IV Population Forecasts with the qualifications contained
therein.
Council Action:
10-18-77 Council adopted Resolution Mo. 5237, approving Modified
Series IV Population Forecasts for the City General Plan Area for use in the Areawide !later Quality Management Plan and other Regional and local planning needs.
eo. SAN DIEGO REGION'S COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING ORGANIZATION
Suite 524 Security Pacific Plaza
1200 Third Avenue
San Diego, California 92101
(714) 233-521 1
October 5, 1977
Mr. Paul Bussey
City Manager
City of Carlsbad
1200 Elm St.
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Dear Mr. Bussey:
As you are aware, CPO staff has been working with your planning staff to pre-
pare what we refer to as Series IV population forecasts.
the CPO Board of Directors instructed the CPO staff to distribute the Series
IV population forecasts to the cities and to seek approval of theforecasts from
each city council, Subsequent to local jurisdiction approval, the forecasts
will be used in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan (208) and other
regional planning work. They will also be available for your local planning
needs.
At its July meeting,
The following table presents the forecasts for the City of Carlbad's general
plan area. We are requesting that your Council adopt these forecasts for the
uses cited in the attached resolution provided by your staff.
General Plan Area
1975 1985 1995
Tot a1 Population 19,700 39,400 63,900
Households 7,200 17,300 29,200
As the resolution states, these forecasts represent the low end of a total
population range which is dependent on changes in future family size within your
planning area.
work closely to refine family size assumptions before the population forecasts
are revised in late 1978.
During the next year, City of Carlbad and CPO staffs will
We appreciate the excellent cooperation and support that we have received
from your staff- -in particular Mr. Joe Sandy--throughout the forecasting
MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar. El Caion, Escondido, Imperial Beach. La Mesa, National City. Oceanside. San Diego.
San Marcos, Vista, and County of San Diego / EX-OFFICIO MEMBER: California Department of Transportation / HONORARY MEMBER: Tijuana, E. CFA.
,
'. '
Mr. Paul Bussey
October 5, 1977
h
2.
work.
relationship with your City--and a realistic set of forecasts which reflect
local plans and inter jurisdictional impacts.
I am confident that this process has helped to develop a healthy working
Sincerely,
RICHARD J. HUFF
Executive Director
RJH/RA / sh
copy to: James Hagaman
Ron Beckman
Joe Sandy
MEMORANDUM
TO: Public Works Administrator
FROM: Project Consultant
DATE : September 29, 1977
SUBJECT: Series IV Forecasts
CPO has revised the Series IV forecasts as per our request of September 12,
1977. The new forecasts for our General Plan Area are:
D.U.
HH . POP.
1975 7.240 2:72 19,700
1985 17,268 2:28 39,371
1995 29,160 2.19 63,860
After lengthy discussion with CPO and extensive analysis, I feel that the
forecasts for dwelling units are as adequate as possible considering ex- isting data. occupied dwelling units per year. All data at this time verifies an ap- proximate 1,000 unit per year increase. When applying a 7% to 8% vacancy factor, this means the construction of approximately 1,100 units per year.
From 1975 to 1985 the forecasts indicate an increase of 1,002
While agreeing with the dwelling unit forecasts, I do question the house- hold factor used to arrive at the forecast population. CPO estimates a drop in household size from our 2.72 level in 1975 (Special Census data) to 2.28 in 1985. CPO sites the increasing divorce rate and decreased family size trend as part of the reason for the dropping household size. A1 though national and state estimates verify this trend toward smaller households, the drop to 2.28 in 1985 might be overstating the issue.
CPO estimates the household size for the entire San Diego region will be
2.5 in 1985. When applying 2.5 to the 1985 dwelling unit forecast of 17,268, the forecast population increases 3,799 to 43,170. tion increase is substantial and the discrepancy cannot be overlooked.
To arrive at an acceptable household size would require considerable time, and even then future factors affecting it may change. In summary, I be-
lieve our course of action regarding adoption of the Series IV forecasts should be:
The popula-
1.
2.
3.
Approve a range of population due to the household factor discrep-
ancy; State as part of our resolution our approval for two years only; and Request a forecast revision at least every two years.
JS : veb
Attachment
D.U.
HH.
POP.
POPULATION RANGE GIVEN VARIOUS HOUSEHOLD FACTORS
1975 1985 1995
7,240 17,268 29,160 2.72 2.28-2.66 2.19-2.60
19,700 39,371 -45,932 63,860-75,816
TOTAL POPULATION AT END OF 1977
Total D.U. Completed*
1975 (Special Census 3/31 /75)
1975 (4/1/75 through 12/31/75)
1976
1977 (1/1/77 through 8/31/77)
8,999
770
828
848
11,445
11,445 - 7% (vacancy rate) = 10,647 (occupied) 10,647 x 2.66 (per household) = 28,321 (population)
Assuming the completion of 400 units through the end of 1977,
the total population should be between 29,000 to 30,000 people.
*As per 1975 Special Census and Building Department records.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
,11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
RESOLUTION NO. 5237
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF
CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING MODIFIED SERIES IV POPULATION
FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE
AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND
OTHER REGIONAL AND LOCAL PLANNING NEEDS
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the Comprehensive Planning
Organization to update population forecasts for the San Diego region using
available 1975 census information and City of Carlsbad staff input; and
WHEREAS, the Series IV Population Forecasts may provide a key to the
planning of future sewage collection and treatment facilities as a component
of the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan being prepared by the Compre-
hensive Planning Organization with the assistance of local agenc
Air'Quality Maintenance Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive
Organization and the Air Pollution Control District with the ass
es an3 the
PI anni ng
stance of
local agencies; and
WHEREAS, local agreement on a consistent set of forecasts may eliminafe
the question about population growth often raised by the Federal and State
agencies which fund wastewater treatment facili.ties,'dnd hence save tinie and
money for local jurisdictions seeking such funding; and
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad recognizes that the need for additional
inforrriation concerning household size creates the s tuation whereby the
population forecasts are stated as a range dependen on varying household
sizes; and
WHEREAS, the forecast ranges for Carlsbad's General Plan area are as
fol lows:
Occup i ed I975
Dwel I ing
Units 7,240
I985
17,268
-
Average
Househo I d 2.72 2.28-2.66
u
I995 -
,, 29,160
2.19-2.60
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1E
19
2c
21
22
2:
24
25
26
27
2e
,
* 6.
I375 I985 I995
Fopulation 19,700 39,37 I -45,9 32 63,860-75,816; and
WHEREAS, these forecasts will enable the City of Carlsbad to utilize
the information in local planning and decision-making to assure that local
plans will complement each other in the attainment of local and regional
development objectives; and
WHEREAS, the adoption of these forecasts will have no effect on any
State subven-kions received by the Ciiy cf Carlsbad;
,
NOW, THEREFORE, 6E IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of
Carlsbad hereby:
I. Adopts the modified Series IV Population Forecasts as contained
herein for the Carlsbad General Plan area and certifies them to the Compre-
two (2) years on
3. Reques
two (2) years in
nize the effects
hensive Planning Organization for use in the Areawide Water Quality Manacemept
Plan, Air Quality Maintenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review Procedures, regional
transportation ana housing planning, and the othei- regional studies described
i n the adopted Comprehens i ve PI ann i ng Organ i zat ion FY 1978-8 I dvera I I Work
Frog ram ;
2. Accepts the modified Series IV Population Forecasts as valid for
y; and
s that these population forecasts be updated at least every.
order to more effectively, as data becomes available, recog-
of the City of Carlsbad's sewer moratorium, the effects of
the Coastal Act areas and the effects on population of alternate approved
sewer systems within the community. Y
PASSED, APPROVED, AND ADOPTED by the City Council of the City of
Carlsbad at a regular meeting held the 18th day of octo ber , 1977
lowing vote to wit: by the fo
xxxxxxx
' w
, t"
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
2c
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
20
,I
AYES : Councilmen Frazee, Lewis, Packard and Skotnicki
NOES : None
ABSENT: Councilwoman Casler
ATTEST :
(SEAL)
c