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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1978-01-17; City Council; 5307; San Diego County Candidate Growth Area1.1 I T Ur \ KLbUAU lop:- Initial: AGENDA BILL NO-.L J27— - v �7 Dept. Hd. DATE: January 17, 19.78 ._ City C ' ._...__ � Atty DEPARTMENT: PLANNING _ Ci-ty Mgr. SUBJECT: SAN DIEGO COUNTY CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA STATEMENT OF THE MATTER The San Diego Board of Supervisors established a task force to create a growth management program. The initial work of this task force is near completion, and the City has been requested to respond on the affects it may have. Since Carlsbad's sphere of influence includes,much incorporated property w:,thin the City boundaries, (island areas), the growth management program is of great interest to us. Theiefore,. staff has reviewed the program with members of the task force and attended local hearings on this matter. Our preliminary finding is that we are not in agreement with the task force proposal. Attached is a report indicating briefly our dirferences and what we would recommend. Exhibits Memorandum to Paul Bussey from James C. Hagaman, dated, 11/17/77. Map Recommendation It is recommended that the City Council direc'. staff to prepare a letter to the Board of Supervisors indicating Carlsbad's rec- ommended changes to the Candidate Growth Area Program, and that staff represent the City of Carlsbad at the County hearing on this matter. NOTE: Lucille V. Moore, Chairwoman, Board of Supervisors, has reauested the opportunity to speak to the Council on this subject at the meeting. Council action 1-17-78 Council directed staff to prepare a letter to the Board of Supervisors indicating Carlsbad's recommended changes to the Candidate Growth Area Program, and that staff represent the City of Carlsbad at the County hearing on the matter. FORM PLANNING 73 ► MEMORANDUM DATE: NOVEMBER 17, 1977 TO: PAUL BUSSEY, CITY MANAGER FROM: JAMES C. HAGAMAN, PLANNING DIRECTOR SUBJECT: SAN DIEGO COUNTY CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA Introduction The County has created an inter -disciplinary task force from their various departments to develop a growth management program. This task force has just been submitted for our review, their fourth project report. The other three reports dealt with work programs, goals, objectives and standards, area selection methodology and implementation techniques. This fourth report deals with applications of the candidate growth area selection methodology, and an implementation approach, including a phasing concept. The report was submitted for review by the Board of Supervisor's on November 10, 1977. County staff is now preparing a revised draft to be submitted to the board on January 19, 1978. If it is acceptable, it will then go out for the publics' review. After the review it will be heard again by the board in April, 1978. Carlsbad has the ability to have changes made prior to the board meeting on January 19, 1978. Progress Report Progress Report No. 4 is a method to determine the growth potential of various unincorporated areas within the county, and a concept for phasing growth. To do this, the task force created a list of criteria they felt necessary for growth, i.e., public facilities, traffic impacts, etc. (contained in Report No. 3). They then applied these criteria to the various geographic areas of the county. The rating system is nonnumerical, and in three basic categories, (positive, neutral and negative). Positive areas show a high degree of compatibility with the objectives for growth and growth is encouraged. The neutral category means that growth will have a neutral impact on the objectives. Evidently this means it is a growth area, but it would not be incompatible if growth did not take place. The last category is negative where growth is not compatible with the objectives and is discouraged. Growth in Carlsbad Within the sphere of influence of Carlsbad (the island areas) all three of the categories are contained. The highest growth possibly (positive) is north of Palomar Airport Road, west of El Camino Real. The second highest priority (neutral) is the island area north of Palomar Airport Road, east of El Camino Real, and the incompatible growth area (negative) is all the property south of Palomar Airport Road. Page Two (2) Staff sees no great fault with the property designated for neutral. The neutral area will probably be developed out in the next 10 years as either rural estate, (i.e., Tontsie "I:” Annexation) or the continuation of the existing single family residential trend set by developments such as Woodbine and Lake Calavera.. The negative areas are somewhat suspect since we do not know at this time what the final plans of the area will be. The General Plan indicates the area to be developed mostly as single-family with some set aside for non- residential reserve. However, for all of the property west of El Camino Real, the Local Coastal Plan must be adopted before growth patterns can be deter- mined. It seems possible that after the UP is adopted that development could occur in the next 10 years in this area. The most inconsistent category is the positve area. The county indicates this as a high potential growth area. However, the City's General Plan in- dicates much of the area for future planning for non-residential uses, taking specifically in consideration the airport and coastal relationships. This area contains the airport, Aqua Hedionda Flood Plain and much agriculture. I don't believe the City could determine at this time what the growth should be, let alone when. If the County adopts this area as high growth, they may also approve zoning, subdivisions and building permits to make it high growth area. This may be in conflict with the Carlsbad Local Coastal Plan, the City's General Plan, and the City's Specific Plans that are to be developed. Conclusion The County's methods for determining potential growth areas is general and does not take into consideration unique circumstances that may exist for any one area. The Board of Supervisor's will need to consider other factors such as the Coastal Act, City's General Plan sphere of influence and the existing land uses. This is particularly true of the area in Carlsbad's sphere of influence, that they have indicated as positive. Since there is no way to determine the future planning for this area at this time, they should list the area as negative. Placing negative on this property may lead to the County's policy to reduce lot splits and rezoning the area to a low -density agricultural zone such as 20 acres per lot. Recommendation I recommend that this report be submitted to the City Council and request that they direct staff to work with the County Growth Management Task Force and the Board of Supervisor's to change the area now listed as positive to negative, and that the County initiate zoning and subdivision regulations that will reduce the development pressures in all areas within Carlsbad's sphere of influence listed as negative in their growth managment program. Attachment Map showing potential candidate growth areas. BP:ar Tounty of 0- an Btrgo �� r ■ rf■r■ " � r � e Halt a(c Dezember 20, 1977 Mr. Paul D. Bussey City Manager City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California 92008 Dear Mr. Bussey: LUCILLE V. MOORE SECOND DISTRICT SU?ERVISOR COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO 1600 PACIFIC HIGHWAY SAN DIEGO 92101 ply) 236.2260 77 At the risk of being mildly presumptuous, I think it is safe to assume that I will become -the chairwoman of the Board of Supervisors for 1978. I am hopeful that my tenure will prove to be one of opportunity and accomplishment. My background in City government has made me well aware that in order to meet the challenges confronting this Board, we need the support and understanding of our region's municipalities. I am therefore seeking an opportunity to meet with your Council to discuss issues of mutual concern. It is my under= standing that your Council has a regular meeting scheduled for Tuesday, January 17, 1978, at 7:00_p.m. My assistant, Kim Kilkenny, has informed me that you have tenatively agreed to place my request to speak on that agenda. It is my intention that our discussion will be open to any topic of mutual interest. But, frankly, there is one issue which I would like to raise myself, that is growth management. This Board will soon initiate the public hearing process for the first portion of our Growth Management Plan. The plans progress to this date has made me excited about its potential, but I am well aware that there are those who do not share my positive feelings. I am therefore, anxious to hear the concerns of your Council at this meeting. Surely, l _ y Lu6ille V. Moore Second District Supervisor San Luis Rey ••' QCCA."n4 M IeIPA ` a e 1 •,J,li /AIRPORT °�" OCEANSIDE ' VI T1 AR C T MARCO ". SAN v N ^�. ✓' i^'y .f cif. fir yY Zbt•'f A P •t�'•' �s`•`a. �,,'v`,,,iY <s'�.�.Jf •N,'�; y%'i.•ti 1' r�'E; Y..'�-.=;: . '`�'3N a s Leucadi , �. .a..: ,• »r o • `,+y^,(li :t., t'n{w � s i^:, k�<.'Ln7'�/"� C:,, •ice .t �'• ' �� !,"i"� L '.N%+� "..,. y�.,�y;�`S{t �yj�'L'` �:•<<-�� "••��•� c �.� f' in l^'Z,�C<���^'Y�+•; Y � • %t `; "-- ^ .< •� i� -rri�C ty�•�i�'1'�t, •�J.y �yj, ,''f. .Ct. ;ram �y�•• `- ,�� r i;- • s.►Mi��+•"y}^.r.flr t•. �'a}�.�`'•��eyv?yQ�;<��.,J-";,�a.,.r>�.�•. •�. *,�y Z 14�`.''. "T7�.. �7M>•+I 'a.T �`�,�`•: s .. ,�, `• •�� .�•• 3�,"'y •i.s:.±�'� }`'•�•�..'i,"i�'3•'fA+i'T ,.:.i'`t r; r: y� "; '�^r" � ,e ^ (..x,K `iv.`•.ii �tii: �'i+C ^p: R:y'4` %'' '^si'>1 1•''�y:•�^'L. • ;: �.. �: .�; ; ,,.....gay Y,..,�f��- t r ., "<� tr3';Q�: »��• , Encinit <_� ;,. z ..,a•r<,_.:_ �. i` rdy. r .: .6.r .-.....5.-i. 'YMw� J.f"•'t Wr .n W.4W4. �' ' h,�3��"'7•^h POTENTIAL CA"IDATE GROWTH AREAS •rah -x ,.,�,,, LIEGEWD s t•rtti.`�.,t3. PEMASQUIT PWITIVE Growth in this -area ohighly compatible objective with the objective an should be encouraged. Note: ,bjective - A set of criteria used to determine ° Grotivth in this area has a "neutr 1'}' if an area is read for roi R-KIN'. NE�I=F�AL impact upon the objective. Y � V•^ j•n ^� zn Gt o}atl in this area i. not cQm�a ible ?s. NEGATIVE `fittl tie o Jective an c� should fie lscourage . - , rE �' • .5.3o S� �,1 r .•�I4 ,F•1\ CO (jN'CY OF SAN llILC U �•. ��� INTER -DEPARTMENTAL CORRESPONDENCE DArc October 12. 1977 _ TO: Boa?:d of Supervisors - (A45) ROPd: Regional Growth Management Director (A215) .1 SUBJECT: Growth Management Progress Report On August 18, 107, your Board considered a draft Candidate Growth Firea Selection Methodology and preliminary list of implementing techniques. RECO2MtNDATION: That your Board Review the attached report. Discussion , = i This report deals with the following: Application of'the Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology Implementation approach including a phasing concept 1. Application of a Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology - Preliminary results of the Candidate Growth Area selection process are included in this report. Substantial additional analysis will -be required prior to choosing actual areas to Accommodate future urban development. 2. Implementat.ion Concepts , This report includes a concept for phasing growth as well as additional analysis regarding specific implementing techniques. r Board of Supervisors -2- October 12, 1977 Growth -management Progress Report Followning consideration of this report, staff will prepare a preliminary plan for your Board's consideration on January 19,' 1978. Respectfully submitted, CONCURRENCE: DAVID D. NIELSEN, Director PAUL C. ZUCKEA, r Regional Growth 24anageme'nt Assistant CAO-IPO ' FISCAL IMPACT_STATEMENT: None ' t 4 ADVISORY BOARD STATEMENT: The Growth Management Advisory'Board $ considered this report on September 29 and.October 11, 1977. Their comments will be presented to your Board in conference on October 20, 1977. ' C � i i DCN : mi Attachment REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM PROGRESS REPORT NO. 4 Application of Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology Implementation Approach October 1977 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE SUBJECT I. Introduction ". 1 Pi. Background. 1 B. Current Report. . . . . . . . . .. 2 1. Application of Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology 2• `3 2. Implementation Concepts. . . . . . . . . . . a. Phasing Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 b. Implementation Policies. . . . . . . . . 4 II. Application of Candidate Growth Area 5 Selection Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 $: Explanation of Methodology. . . .1 C. Summary of Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 III. Implementation'Approach. . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • 11 A. General Explanation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11, B. Unresolved Issues 11 C. .Phasing Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 D. Additional Implementation Approaches. . . . . . . . . 23 ' 1. Housing Policy Alternatives. . . . . . . . . . . 23 2. Annexation/Incorporation Policy Alternatives 33 •42 3. Social Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . • APPENDICES I Modifications to the Approved CGA Methodology II Social Area Analysis Methodology III Candidate Growth Area Selection Process - Preliminary Results IV -Attainable Populations in Community,Plan Areas Receiving Positive or Neutral Ratings V Options for Phasing - A Background Paper 14 r�a i t i I. INTRODUCTION' ..tirrr..'.r..w.w��ww�...wwr�.r.�w• .++..w.wr.ww�.+�. r+a ...�,w +..w.....r..Yew.w.�s�wu.r.....+�w.rww.r�1`�w,ti�r.'�Yrrw�.w�w�r�1 .rM�.rti.+w..rw+.. I I. INTRODUCTION A. Background This is the fourth Growth Management Progress Report. Previous reports have dealt with the following: - Work plan and Program - Goals, Objectives and Standards - Candidate Growth Area Selection :Methodology and Alternative Implementation Techniques • On April 7, 1977, the Board of Supervisors approved the Growth Management Work Program. The Work Program includes the following schedule of activities: - Development of Goals, Objectives and Standards: July 1977 - Identification of Alternative Candidate Growth Areas and Implementing Techniques: October 197-7 - Preparation of Preliminary Plan: January 1978 j - Impact Analysis (economic, fiscal, environ- mental) results: March 1978 i - Preparation of Final Plan: June 1978 • On July 26, 1977, the Board of Supervisors approved Goals, Objectives and Standards for use in preparation of a preliminary plan. The goals, objectives and standards are being used to do the following: - Identify candidate growth areas - Develop the programs and policies needed to properly Phase growth - Formulate other policies in subject areas related to growth management, such as housing, annexation, social ..concerns, capital facilities 2 • On August 18, 1977,_the Board of Supervisors approved 'a proposed Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology and a preliminary listing of implementing techniques. The methodology is to be used to identi- fy those areas capable of accommodating additional growth in,a manner consistent with the approved goals and objectives: The implementing techniques represent the policy and program options available to the Board of Supervisors to direct and phase growth in a manner consis- tent with the approved Goals, Objectives and Standards. B. Content of Current Report This report deals with the following: - Application of the Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology - Implementation approach including a phasing concept 1. Application of Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology Growth Management staff has now applied the Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology and identified those areas of the unincorporated area where urban residential growth can best ' be accommodated. The results of this effort are summarized in this report in Part II, Appendices III and 7V, and on the ' attached map. Additional work remains to be done prior to actual selection of candidate growth areas including: • - Application of certain fiscal criteria for which data are not yet available • - Resolution of a number of issues identified in this report (See Part III, Section B, pAges 11 to 14). - Completion of studies identified in Part II 3 2. Implementation Approach Progress Report No. 3 identified numerous implementation alternatives that could be used to phase development and implement the growth management.program. Since then Growth Management staff, in conjunction with'County Counsel and IPO staff, has further evaluated these concepts. This report includes for Board consideration a.phasing concept and addi-- tional analysis of certain implementing techniques. a. Phasing Concept 'The phasing concept under consideration proposes use.of six general land use categories in the Growth Management Plan: • - Urban Development Areas: 1985 and 1995 These are the areas to which urban development would be directed. The areas would be defined by 1985 and 1995 urban service lines. In the area beyond the 1965 line, only those interim uses that do not preclude future urban develop- ment would be permitted. Estate Development Area This is the area outside of the 1995 Urban D.eveldpment Area. It would receive most "urban" services except sewers and transit. This area would serve as a transition or buffer between the urban and rural areas of the County. It would include both agricultural and residential uses. f..wrt..:M..�4vw� ..+ �.�, w.., ww...wr..rr.wr.rw�........�. i..u.++. w.wr . �.. ..w. •.aw.� ..«br . + .r.. � .w........., ..�.. ... �.. rw.A.. _ ,a .. w1iiA a. 4 - Rural Area This area would have very limited development in large parcels. The major concern in this area would be to limit development to available water resources. - Country Towns This classification would be applied to those small retail/residential areas serving surrounding rural areas or functioning as resorts. Desert Area Due to the unique and complex characteristics of this area it is recommended that this area be the subject of separate future study to determine its appropriate form and rate of development. b. Implementing Policies Additional analysis is provided in the following areas: - Capital facilities - Housing r Annexation/Incorporation Social Concerns •Analysis of fiscal and economic policies will be completed prior to submission'of the Preliminary Plan. 1-1 II. APPLICATION OF CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA SELECTION METHODOLOGY 5 II. APPLICATION OF CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA SELECTION METHODOLOGY \ A. Introduction On August 18, 1977, the Board of Supervisors reviewed Progress Report No'. 3 and approved the use of a Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology. This methodology involves evaluating sub -units of the County in terms of those approved growth manage- ment objectives which are geographically sensitive.* The methodology contained three basic components. 1. It identified 14 objectives approved for the Growth Manage- ment Study which are geographically sensitive. 2. It identified a non -numerical rating system which indicates the degree o'f compatibility with each objective. 3. It defined criteria which provide general indications of an area's ability to accommodate growth in a manner compatible with the selected objectives. The geographical area of analysis used in the methodology was the 4 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)** or where appropriate, divisions of TAZ's. In reviewing the methodology the Board of Supervisors made one major change. They directed that the availability of public transit be considered in the determination of the overall rating. * A "geographically sensitive" objective means that to meet the iiitent of the.objective growth should be directed to geograph- ical areas with certain characteristics. Example: locate 4rowth in areas where imported water is available. ** A, Traffic Analysis Zone is a geographic unit developed by the California Department of Transportation to facilitate detailed regional studies. The size is based upon population and is ,, generally half the size of a census tract. a 6 B. Explanation of the Methodology 1. The objectives used in the methodology areas•follows:' Land Use Objectives Encourage Infilling or Contiguous Development, Continue and Expand Agricultural Uses Capital Facilities Objectives Extend Facilities to Contiguous Areas Direct Growth Where Facility Capacity Exists .__ Direct Growth Where the Provision of Public •Transit is Most Feasible Environmental Obje^tives Protect Environmentally'Significant Areas from Development Minimize Requiremerts for Space Heating and Cooling Lpcate Development Where Imported Water is Available Minimize Transportation Requirements and Number of Trips Housing Objectives , 'I ' ncrease the Availability of Low•and Moderate Housing iDeficient Areas Social Objectives ` Encourage New Development in Declining Socio-Economic Areas Annexation/Incorporation Objective Encourage Development in Declining Socio-Economic Areas Optimize Tax Base with Land Use Mix to Encourage Future Incorporation Urbanize There County Expenditures and Revenues Balance 2. A Rating System was developed and approved by the Board. This system is non -numerical and has three'basic categories. The ,._ ratings are: Rating + Growth in this area is highly compatible with the objective and should be encouraged. 0 Growth in this area has a "neutral" impact upon the objective. - Growth in this area is not compatible with, the objective and should be discouraged. X This area contains a fundamen•tai restraint to development.' 3. Criteria were developed for each objective. These criteria were used to determine the compatibility of areas with each objective. These criteria were also approved by the Board. A total of 95 criteria were used in testing for the objec- tives. The criteria are identified in Progress Report No. 3. New,or modified criteria are included in Appendix I. For purposes of explanation one example is as follows:, objective: Locate Development Where Facility Capacity Exists or Where Facilities Can Be Expanded Without Major New Facilities. Criteria: This single objective identified four Fundamental facilities which required separate analysis -- water, sewers, fire protection, schools. The criteria used for this objective were as follows: + Sufficient capacity exists (or is assured) for projected population in this area 0 • While sufficient capacity does not exist, the facility could be feasibly expanded to accommodate the projected population The population projections would require the construction of major new facilities * Example: The area is outside the boundaries of a water district supplying imported water; the area is a floodplain or lagoon, etc. 8 The criteria were applied for°each of the four facility types in.terms of the three rating levels. Results of this analysis were then combined into an overall rating for the objective. :a In terms of the criteria identified in Progress Report No. 3 •changes occurred as follows: a. The criteria selected to indicate the existing or future availability of public transit were not included in the original report as the objective was added by the Board of Supervisors (see Appendix I for Criteria). b. Social criteria were further refined and modified through meetings with staff of the Department of Human Relations i (see Appendix II for explanation) . Also, areas have not yet been evaluated in terms of the two fiscal objectives as data regLired to evaluate these objec- tives is not yet available. EC 1-1 Optimize Tax Base with Land Use Mix to Encourage Incorporation EC 1-2• Urbanize where County Expenditures and Revenues Balance 4. Evaluation by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) While the analysis addressed all of the incorporated area, the initial evaluation covers only the western third of the County. This is the area of the "218" population projections and the area subject to current urban development pressures. A total of 291 TAZ's and.SubTAZ's were included in the analysis'. The study then proceeded as follows: 9 In accordance with the Board -approved objectives, TAZ's beyond the existing boundaries of a water, district were identified. A total of 31 areas were excluded on the basis of having a fundamental restraint to development. - All areas were evaluated in terms of 95 separate criteria. A total of 8;000 separate analysis were required to complete the -analysis. - After all 261 areas were evaluated, a composite score or overall rating was assigned to each. - The overall ratings were then tested and evaluated to assure consistency and accurancy. - TAZ's and SubTAZ's were combined to coincide with community plan and subregional boundaries. - These larger units were given an overall rating, and the ratings once again tested for consistency and accuracy. C. Summary of Results The breakdown in terms of the 291 TAZ or SubTAZ studied is as follows: 104 Received an Overall Rating of Positive 48 Received an Overall Rating of Neutral 108 Received an Overall Rating of Negative 31 Were found to be beyond the existing boundaries of the San Diego County Water Authority and were thus excluded from further evaluation The present population of the areas receiving positive or neutral -*ratings is approximately 280,000. On the basis of existing plan designations, these areas could accommodate a population of about ^569,000 (based on "built -out" at sixty percent of the allowed density). The�569,000 figure, however, may not be reached due to the following: 10 - Existing development in most of these areas is at lower densities than the General Plan/community Plans permit. - In some cases, the community plan designations permit more population than is called for in the community plan goals. - The figure assumes "total" build -out with little or no reserve land remaining. :\ The 1975 population of the area receiving negative ratings was about 62,000. Future potential population for these areas has not yet been determined. In terms of meeting growth management objectives, it would be desirable to direct future urban development into the areas re- ceiving positive or neutral ratings. However, it is too ea-ly to recommend these areas as candidate growth areas. Additional studies will be necessary in order to more precisely determine the ability to actually accommodate projected populations. If these areas cannot accommodate the projected populations, the Board of Supervisors will have three alternatives: 1. Direct some growth into areas receiving a negative rating. 2. Increase densities within the areas receiving a positive -or neutral rating. 3. Through the "208" population projection process attempt to redistribute additional population into the cities of the region. Detailed information concerning the areas rated is contained in + Appendices III and IV. .r r.ra..vr•w.s /+e...++-..I�wn .« •..nr•J .. w.a.• s � .rw a. .... •.r - vr+... .•.... vs •.. .• .. I . �► w..-...... �.w, jp III. IMPLEMENTATION APPROACH FON 11 MM III. IMPLEMENTATION APPROACH A. General Explanation Progress Report No. 3, submitted in August, outlined a broad range of implementation alternatives that could be used to phase develop- ment and implement the growth program. These phasing approaches and implementation techniques have now been further evaluated and refined. Before the preliminary plan is developed, it will be necessary to determine which approaches are best. suited for appli- cation in terms of both regional and local impacts. B. Unresolved Issues Completion 61 an implementation program will require resolution of a number of important issues. -These issues which will be the subject of study in the upcoming months include the following: a w.r....tw..l..• !.•«..a..—.».�...n.+«ra.�.1.w •d..w....+.... ,.. ........+o..a....�..........w....a.�..�....—.... ....« �....e. ..,... .�. �.. .....+L�.....ww ..-+M «.... 12 1. Relationship Between the Growth Management Program and Adopted Community Plans The evaluation completed and described in Part.11 prelim- inarily identifies those areas which could accommodate -addi- tional urban residential development. Significantly, certain areas designated on community plans for urban densities did not rate highly as potential candidate growth areas. There is a need for additional evaluation of potential candi- date•growth areas in terms of adopted community and facility plans. However, the issue may arise as to whether an effective growth management program can accommodate all designations on community plans that were developed on the basis of local rather than County -wide perspectives. 2. Appropriate Urban and Non -Urban Densities The existing community plans tend to have large amounts of'' land designated for estate type development - 1/2 acre, 1 acre, 2 acre designations for both residential and agricul- ture categories. There is tremendous demand for parcels of this size in San Diego County. Development at such densities, however, could make implemen- tation of an effective growth management program very difficult. Potential problems include the following: - Such densities req\iire most urban services. The • costs of delivering those s rvices is generally higher than for more intensive development (some costs are paid directly by the property owners, others are paid by all property owners in the serv- icing district, some direct costs and most indirect C4.1L : Cr :..costs or externalities affect all taxpayers in the County) . 13 - Transportation in these areas is totally dependent upon the automobile. More and longer trips are required, thus contributing -to air pollution and energy problems. Alternative transportation systems are not feasible. - Such development prevents densification if this becomes desirable in future years. An initial review of public services indicates that a density of three to four dwelling units per acre is probably the mini- mum level at which some urban services, for example bus service and sewers, can be efficiently delivered. The issue is whether densities should be increased in urban areas to allow for the most effective use of facilities and the use of public transit. Conversely, the question arises as to whether densities should be decreased in the non -urban areas in the interest of air quality improvement, energy con- servation, and retaining options for future development. This is an issue which must be further studied. The lot split study currently being carried out by the Integrated Planning office may provide some of the required information. 3. Staging and Phasing of Facilities Not Under Countv Control Growth management is dependent on phasing development with essential services and facilities. This study has identified essential serv:.ces.as water, sewers, fire protection, schools and transportation, The County provides few such services. Most of them are provided by independent districts that are no+-. under County control. 14 At issue is the degree to which the County can effectively manage growth when it does not control the agencies or faci- lities,providng the services for that growth. Recommendations concerning resolution of this issue will be included in the preliminary plan. � 15 C. Phasing Concept 1. Introduction Phasing is basic to growth management. Phasing involves the staging or scheduling of growth in a planned way. In terms of the County Growth Management Program, the primary focus is on locating growth in candidate growth areas and staging it consistent with facilities availability. To be effective in the promotion of orderly development, a phasing concept must incorporate the following considerations: Coordination of urban growth with the provision of adequate public facilities and services throughout the implementation period. - Provision of sufficient developable land in those ` urban development areas through the implementation period. - Inclusion of land use classifications which provide for a variety of income levels and life styles. - Ability to adjust or amend the plan to incorporate changing technical and economic conditions. G - Recognition of the interrelationship of all land use 'in the region. - Recognition of existing forms of development, land- ownership patterns, public facilities. - Recognition of goals, policies and land use classifi- cations in community plans and general plan elements. - Recognition of the goals, objectives and standards adopted for the Growth Program. In attempting to meet this diversity of requirements, the phasing concept currently under development and evaluation would include six broad classifications of land use. These classes would encompass the land use categories provided for 16 in the General Plan. The classes would mainly identify the timing of development, the range of densities, and the types anti levels of public services required. The classes would be: - Urban Development Area:- 1985 and 1995 Estate Development Area (phased, if necessary) Rural Area Country Towns —Desert Region The extent and location of each category would be based upon further study of the candidate growth area designations and the criteria identified above. 2. 'Explanation of the Categories a. Urban Development Area: 1985 and 1995 These areas would be served with the full range of urban services by the period 1985 and 1995. These services and facilities include sewers, imported water, adequate struc- tural fire protection by a full-time fire agency, public transit, libraries, schools, police protection and parks. The areas would be identified on a map by an Urban Service Area boundary.for 1985 and 1995. Location of the boundaries and the size of the areas included within them would be based upon: - Priority would be given to those areas identified as positive or neutral in meeting the objectives ,•- .•..� • . t:.. of the program. 17 - Service capabilities of the public agencies providing the basic services - sewers, water, fire protection, schools, and existing bound- aries for improvement districts. - Co:.�^�unity plan designations. - Existing lot and parcel patterns. - Existing development patterns The 1985 boundary would designate that area projected to have urban services by 1985. ' The 1995 boundary would identify that area anticipated to have urban services in the period 1985 to 1995. In order to be an effective phasing approach it would be necessary to retain this designated area in holdings large enough for economical development after 1985. The urban development area concept would identify areas for development at two defineu future points in time - 1985 and 1995, rather than on an annual basis. This system is proposed for the following reasons: - The County does not have control of most basic services as do cities and therefore cannot be as precise in integrating facilities and land use plans. _ - Phasing growth in annual increments could be unduly complex. - A multi -year system gives greater flexibility to servicing agency in direction of their pro- grams.' Growth in the urban development area would be monitored _ through implementation of the Integrated Facilities Adequacy Analysis System (see Progress Report No. 3, • 18 • August; 1977). A quarterly report would be i published, identifying where capacities exist, where ' development is occurring, the types of units being built, and where problems are developing. :a .Even though at the outset the two areas would contain sufficient land to accommodate development, it would be necessary to make periodic adjustments to reflect changing needs and conditions and to assure that sufficient land remains to accommodate projected housing demand. The service area would be re-evaluated and ad- justed every three years. In the unincorporated area most services basic to develop- ment are supplied by independent special districts. "To a great degree provision of new facilities is dependent i upon obtaining funding by voter approval or grants or obtaining inter -agency agreements. The County can assist by early identification of development areas, by assuring that development patterns meet the requirements for grants ' (e.g., plan for development patterns that minimize air quality degredation), providing inter -agency assistance. where feasible, and directing development to obtain maxi- mum use from existing facilities. b.. Estate Development Area This classification would be used to designate those .. areas where the pattern and density of development 1j 19 .-. requires urban services and facilities other than sewer and local public transit (although some of these areas are served or are within the tax boundaries of an agency). This classification would incorporate a range of General Plan land use categories for rural residential, estates and intensive agriculture. These categories are widely used in Community Plans. The Estate Development Area would be located adjacent to areas designated for 1995 development. It is not yet clear whether multi -year phasing will be needed in•these areas. The location, size and appropriate densities in this cate- gory would be based upon a study of: f - Existing ownerships in various parcel sizes.. - P;npact of such development on uses within the urban development areas. - Impact of such development on the provision of public services to urban areas. - Impact of such development on air quality, water ; resources and other environmental concerns. - The im?act of such development on meeting housing goals. - Impact of such development on the ability to adjust to future life style and economic changes. Community plan designations, goals and policies. C. Rural Area This classification would be applied to areas with very limited development such as eight acres or larger. The Pam', 20 service and facility requirements are substantially different than those of urban or estate area. The major concern in this area is to limit development to available water resources, since imported water is generally not available. d. Country Towns This classification would be applied to those small retail/residential.areas serving surrounding. rural areas or functioning as resorts. These towns would not have the full range of urban services even though de- velopment sometimes reaches urban densities. Examples would.be Julian, Morena, Jamul, Rainbow. ; e. Desert Area The Desert Subregional Planning Area is a unique area to the County. Under this proposed classification sys- tem it would be recommended that the entire desert sub- region be the subject of separate, future study to deter- mine its appropriate level and rate of development. See.Appendix V for a listing of phasing alternatives con- sidered. 21 3. Implementation of the Phasing Concept The implementation of a phasing concept over the og the growth program will involve at least five steps: DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONCEPT AND ITS INITIAL APPLICATION as part of the growth management plan.''That is the aspact related in Parts 1 and 2 of this section on Phasing. (Means: An adopted Regional Growth Manage- ment Program.) PLANNING AND COORDINATION OF FACILITIES BY THE COUNTY The County has only limited control over the delivery of essential services in the area of water, sewers, fire protection and schools. However,•the County can assume a more active role in long-range and mid -range facilty planning in conjunction with the agencies that supply • these services and the Comprehensive Planning Organiza- tion: Also, it could serve as advocacy role for those districts attempting to provide adequate facilities consistent with the plan. (Means: IPO's Facility Planning Pro- grams, the Six -Year Capital Facilities Program, CPO's facility planning programs, A-95 review process.) - CONTINUAL MONITORING OF DEVELONIENT AND FACILITIES The County currently has a monitoring and reporting • program for facilities and development trends (IPO's Growth and Public Information System and Sanitation and Flood Control Reserve Treatment Capacity Report). These reports could be combined and issued on a quar- terly basis as a general monitoring and reporting system for use by government agencies and the private sector. (Means: An Integrated Facility Adequacy Analysis • System.) 22 ALLOCATION OF SCARCE CAPACITY OR THE RESTRICTION OF DEVELOPMENT WHERE THERE IS NO CAPACITY The County is currently considering a system for allo- cating sewer capacity when there is nest sufficient capacity for all proposed development (SCRAM). if the test of that system shows it to be a workable mechanism, it could be extended to other areas and possibly to other functions such as schools. The County can also have an automatic cut-off system with a Facilities Adequacy Ordinance. (Means: Expanded SCRA14 System, a Facilities Adequacy Ordinance.) PERIODIC UPDATING OF THE BOUNDARIES OF THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT On the basis of the monitoring systems and functional planning, the County would periodically, probably.every three'years, review the areas and redefine the bound- aries as necessary. For further information on these specific policies see Progress Report No. 3, August. 1977. D. Additional Implementation Approaches This section contains reports on three additional policy areas - housing, annexation/incorporation and social concerns. 1. Housing Policy Alternatives a. Techniques to Reduce Housing Costs The Growth Management Plan has two goals in the area of housing: (1) Assist the private sector to provide sufficient units; and (2) Assist the private sector to assure that adequate affordable shelter will be affordable to all socio- economic groups. The increasing cost of housing is well documented in the San Diego Region. The reasons for the price increases are -numerous. Specific factors have been identified as affecting the behavior of the housing market in a recent publication -by the Graduate School of Management at UCLA1. Those factors ,are: - Household formation and net migration - Availability of mortgage funds - Inflationary expectations and hedging - Income increases and expectations about future incomes - Tax shelter in home purchasing - Speculation - Supply constraints on new home construction inclading environmental regulations - Investment from outside California - Building costs :ill these factors impact the San Diego housing market. Most economists seem to agree that these factors collec- tively have contributed to the recent behavior in the • housing market. Most projections indicate that the -- • factors that have contributed 1. Real Estate Indicators, Housing, Real Estate, and Urban Studies UCLA Gra uate School— f Management, Summer 1977. 24 to the demand side will not diminish in the immediate future. If the demand continues to increase and the supply does not . keep pace,then undoubtedly the price of housing will continue to rise. The recommendations that follow are primarily related to in- creasing the supply of housing in the unincorporated area con- sistent with growth management goals and objectives. The emphasis is on the production of new housing and specifically the regulatory tools that the County has at its disposal to influence production. A few qualifiers are necessary before discussing regulatory tools that the County has at its di.sporal. The real estate market in vacant land is imperfect and the housing production r process is complex. The actions that the County can take to meet the above goals are not limitless. For example, if the supply of buildable lots increased and the land development process shortened, theoretically there should be a reduction in housing costs. This assumption is the basis for the.majority of the implementing techniques that follow. If the demand is high the cost reductions may not be passed on to the consumer. Also, if costs can be cut in one area, extra features and amenities could be added in their place with the impact of not reducing the price of the housing. The actions that could be taken by the County to lower housing costs are listed below. The list is not all inclusive. Never- theless, the factors identified would in ou.- opinion contribute 25 to effectively increasing the potential number of building sites and could reduce the selling price of housing in the County. Density Bonuses: Density bonuses would produce more buildabl3 sites and would increase ,the total supply .of housing units. There have been density bonuses permitted by the Zoning Ordinance under the provisions of the Planned Residential Development. The density bonuses are predicated upon minimum open space require- ments, common areas, homeowner associations, and often- times active recreation areas. This ordinance has led to many attractive projects. But due to the costs of the added amenities it has not led to a reduction in the unit price of housing. Expanded use of density bonuses as an incentive for meeting growth management objegtives should be con- sidered. Lot size reductions to 5,000 or 4,000 square feet would achieve the desirable density increases. Design controls would•still be possible through the subdivision ordinance. Encourage Development at Maximum Permitted Densities: Within the unincorporated area as well as within the region, development is occurring at lower densities in spite of ;igher housing costs. In 1970, 57.5% of the total housing units produced in the region were multi -family. In 1976, 46.3% of the total 26 units produced were multi -family. In the unincorporated area the respective breakdown was 25.5% multi -family in 1970 and 20.8% multi -family in 1976. The areas in the unincorporated area that are designated urban and which have been developed in recent years are developing at densities well below the planned densities on the Community Plan. For example, in areas where the General Plan designates medium residential densities (7.3 DU/AC) development often is occurring at 2.0 •to 3.0 DU/AC. These reduced densities contribute to the per= unit increase in housing costs. In general, subdivisions that are approved in urban areas should be as close to the permitted plan densities as possible. There are often site specific reasons for redu Ang•density related to slope, street and drainage design, and other mitigating measures that are identified in the EIR's. These required density reductions should be weighted against the potential unit price per lot which could impact the resultant housing costs. Within the Candidate Growth Areas identified for develop- ment between now and 1985, increased densities should be encouraged through the Community Planning Process and through the project review of subdivisions. Improve Processing Time: Time delays have often been sited as a reason for increased housing costs. Within 27 those areas designated as candidate growth areas every effort should be made to process land use permits as rapidly as possible. The following procedure could aid in reducing processing times. Pre -application Permit Procedure, An applicant could be permitted to submit a pre -application that would be reviewed by all County departments before submitting the formal permit and paying the required fees. This pre -application would be re- viewed by the Environmental Analysis Division, Depart- ment of Land Use,and Environmental Regulation, Depart- ment of Transportation, Department of Sanitation and j • Flood Control, -Department of Public Health, and all other appropriate County departments. written com- ments on, the proposed pre -application would be sub- mitted to the proponent within a reasonable time period to be established by ordinance. These written comments would constitute the tentative conditions of approval once the project is formally submitted. These written comments would be valid for a specified period of time and are subject to change with explanation. - Processing Priority. After approval of a subdivision map, priority could be given to those maps in Candi- date Growth Areas. The Department of Transportation "' could recommend a method of prioritizing projects 28 -^ within these areas. The priorities should apply to improvement plan checks and on -site construction inspections. Subregional Environmental Impact Reports could be be prepared annually. Such report would specifically address community -wide environmental impacts. These impacts are not site related. They would include all aspects of an EIR including air quality, traffic vol- umes, schools. sewers, water supply and any other specific community -wide impacts. The reports would be reviewed by the community and the Environmental Review Board: Projects could reference this report in regard to off -site environmental impacts. On -site impacts would have to be addressed at the project level. These reports would help reduce processing time. They would aid in monitoring the environmental quality within a given candidate growth area. These annual reports could serve as benchmarks measuring _. the effectiveness of general plan implementation programs. Comprehensive -Revision to Zoning Ordinance. The proposed revisions to the Zoning Ordinance will pro- vide greater flexibility and less administrative problems than the current ordinance. The adoption of this ordinance should in the long -run help reduce processing times. 29 - Mobile Home Parks. Mobilehome parks provide an alternative housing choice for many persons: In the recent past there have been fewer mobilehoihe park developments. Additional review should be conducted to determine if the Community Plans and Zoning, Ordi- nance can be changed to encourage more mobilehome park development. The Board has currently referred this subject to the Integrated Planning Office and the Department of Land Use and Environmental Regulation. b. Techniques to Assist'Low and Moderate Income Households As the housing market becomes tighter and prices and rents for housing inc-rease, persons with low and moderate incomes are more adversely effected than the population at large. Housing choice becomes more limited and often such individuals are forced to live in substandard housing. There are specific subareas within the County with concentrations of low and moderate income persons: The Social and Economic component of the Growth Management Plan will identify specific target areas where the needs of special populations are greatest. The overall strategy in -the Growth Management Plan will be to accommodate the needs of these groups and to avoid their exclusion from developing urban residential areas. Since the private market often does not suc- ceed in adequately meeting the needs of these special populations, often additional governmental action needs to betaken. 30 ; The following list of implementing. techniques could be used to achieve the goal of adequately assisting all income groups: Znclusionary Ordinance The purpose of such an ordinance would be to assure an in - elusion of low and moderate income,persons in developing areas. Such an ordinance would apply, to dwelling units for sale and for rent within the candidate growth areas. Developers would be encouraged to develop and sell a specified percentage of the dwelling units in their developments at a price below market value (BMP) in exchange for a density bonus. These BMP units would be sold to households that qualify based on i their income level. Financing for the units would come from traditional private sources. • f Such housing would,benefit people of moderate income. The applicants for the BMP unit would have to be qualified by 6 the Housing Authority and provide evidence of the income j level. Income should not be in excess of a certain level to qualify as a moderate income family, while it would have to be sufficient to qualify for the loan to purchase the property. The developer should have the flexibility to provide these SMP units anvwhere within the development. As an alterha- tive, the developer could be permitted to locate the units within the general area of the projebt rather than within the specific subdivision. MOM ~ 31 To insure that these units are•not immediately sold at large speculative gains, the Housing Authority would have to exer- cise control over the resale price of the property for a predetermined period of time. The resale price ,would be reflective of the inflation rate, selling costs, and the improvements made to the property. For units developed for rent, the ordinance would apply to multi -family complexes creating a specified number of units. The ordinance would require that a percentage of the units created be rented at the Fair Market Rental Rates established by HUD. Additionally, these units would be offered to the Housing Authority for inclusion in the appro- priate rent subsidy program designated to assist low and moderate income households. The Housing Authority should be granted the right pf first refusal for future rental of the units produced specifically for low and moderate income households. If subsidies are not available at the time the units are first produced, these units would be required to, be made'available to a low or moderate income family when a vacancy occurs. This approach is dependent upon the avail- ability of subsidies. A direct relationship will exist between the number of units provided to low and moderate income housing and the available funds. The major benefit of the ordinance u:yo»ld bq to insure that sufficient units are available in growth areas when and if in the future 'there are funds available. 32 - Reduction in Fees The County currently has a full cost recovery policy relating to direct services provided to the public by the County,. Additionally, fees are charged a developer for park dedica- tion purposes. Development costs can be lowered if fees charged for Below Market Housing were reduced in the Candidate Growth Areas.. -Before implementation of any fee reduction in growth areas, the impact on operating departments should be determined. 33 2. Annexation/Incorporation Policy Alternatives Basic Concept The Board of Supervisors has adopted the following goal re- garding annexation and incorporation: Assure that the appropriate governmental strucure is established for existing and developing unincor- porated urban communities so as to provide for com- munity self government, and efficient and equitable provision of public services. Priority is given to Candidate Growth Areas. This strategy is being developed in coordination with the Integrated Planning Office (IPO), the Office of intergovern- mental Affairs (OIA), Community Services Agency (CSA), County Counsel and the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) staff. The preliminary conclusions ;fill be further refined to"'include fiscal and economic analysis of candidate annexation/incorpor- ation areas. In this strategy areas of the County will be divided into six categories. The categories, prioritized in their suggested -order of overall emphasis, are as follows: - Candidate Growth Areas with potential to annex - Candidate Growth Areas with potential to incorporate by 1985 - County Islands Candidate Growth Areas with potential to incorporate beyond 1985 - Non -Candidate Growth Areas with potential to annex - Non -Candidate Growth Areas with potential to incor- poiate beyond 1985 34 Specific implementing techniques for each type of area are being developed. EXPLANATION OF THE CATEGORIES Candidate Growth Areas with Potential to Incorporate by 1985 — These areas have the following characteristics: - Area has existing extended level of urban ' services - Area is geographically separated from adjacent cities or is served by separate districts - Area has a community identify, i.e., a separate town center - Area has sufficient economic base for taxing purposes (economic threshold criteria must be established) - Area has devel_ped to 40 percent or more of the holding capacity of the Community Plan. - There is an expression of community interest .(i.e., formai•petition for incorporation) Implementation techniques under consideration for these areas could include: - Establishment of a Community Services District (CSD) should be encouraged. A CSD can provide a full range of urban services and has its own elected governing body. A CSD would enable many service functions to be consolidated into one district and could provide the leadership necessary for incorporation. r A reorganization analysis could be prepared with Assistance of the County. Such analysis would 35 include in the review of possible dissolution and consolidation of servicing agencies. - Establishment of criteria for initiating incor- poration studies. This could include an exam- ination of the fiscal, economic and legal impli- cations of dissolving special districts and/or consolidating the functions of the special dis- tricts serving the area. - Community Development Funds could be channeled to these areas for site improvements and facility provision where such expenditures would expedite incorporation. , - Channel capital facility expenditures into these areas where such expenditures would expedite incorporation (for example: Federal grant. a32o- cations for road improvements could be earmarked for these areas giving priority to those areas ,-, identified in the Capital Facility Program which` , are also in Candidate Growth Areas). - Candidate Growth Areas with Potential to Incorporate; beyond 1985 ,,,,•� These areas have the following characteristics: - :••, ; ; - Area has partially extended urban level of services, i.e., it may lack adequate fire protection, public sewer systems, . ,rks and libraries. , The area is completely removed from any other ' %rb;,`, _ urban center. The, area has a commur'by Ldentity, i.e., a separate town center. , 36 - There is not a sufficient economic abase to incor- porate at this time due to insufficient generation of local demand for commercial and industrial business activity. - There is a planned physical expansion area. The area has an underdeveloped primary circulation system. - Less than 40 percent of the Community Plan holding capacity is developed. Implementation techniques that could be used for, these areas include: - Amend the Community Plan to consolidate and better plan for a servicable urban center. - The 1985 urban service area should be identified where there are projected to be facility capacities • adequate to support population projections in 1985. i - Outside the 1:985 urban service line, identify the area as a 1995 urban_ reserve area; beyond that establish large lot buffer uses to ensure central- ized service demand. - Establish cri terla for the creation of Community i f Service Districts, i.e., expressed community interest as indicated through a narrowly defeated incorporation initiative or the expressed need for major ($40 mil- lion) improvements to two primary facilities; sewer, water, fire, schools, roads. r .37 i Community Development rands could be channeled to these areas for site improvements and facility provision where such expenditures would expedite incorporation. Channel capital facility expenditures into these areas where such expenditures would expedite in- corporation (for example: Federal grant alloca- tions for road improvements could be earmarked for these areas giving priority to those areas identified in the Capital Facility Program which are also in Candidate Growth Areas). Non -Candidate Growth vAreas with Potential to Incorporate Beyond 935 Implementing techniques that -could be used for these arras include: - if the area is not within a Candidate Growth Area, discourage the formation of Community Services _ Districts or County,Service Areas that could be growth inducing.and thus in conflict with growth management objectives. Give the area the least priority among the target annexation/incorporation areas in use of other implementing techniques. (County Service Areas should only be formed for public"health and safety.reasons and/or where there will. be no growth inducing impact.) - Candidate Growth Areas with Potential to Annex These areas have the following characteristics: - The area is adjacent to cities - There exists a developing commercial base which appropriately relates to the adjacent Community's commercial activity. - There is an extended level of urban services, i.e., lighting, library, parks and community recreation programs. - Adjacent city has expressed interest by identifying the area on their general plan as a potential annexa- ti >n area. Implementation techniques that could be used in these areas include: - Encourage County Service Areas within fringe area of Candidate Growth Areas on a case -by -case basis. - Establish a threshold level of services beyond w:iich formation or expansion of County Service Areas will not be allowed and annexation will be necessary. - Placement of an area in an annexation reserve with an annexation reserve category or a prezoned _ category to insure that the area will conform to the adjacent city's General Plan and to insure that there will be no zoning inconsistencies. � - Establish holding zone while amending General Plan to conform to the adjacent city's General Plan. 39 - Adoption of proposed Board policy regarding city review of County projects, including lot splits. - Establish by Board of Supervisor policy that. within the annexation areas there will be no waiving of required improvements 'for divisions of land. This is to insure that standards in the County meet the standards required by the adjacent cities. - Community Development funds should be channeled to these areas for site improvements and facility provision where such expenditures would expedite annexation. s; - Channel capital facility expenditures into these areas where such expenditures would expedite-annexa tion (for example: Federal grant allocations for # road improvements should be earmarked for these j areas giving priority.to those areas identified in the Capital Facility Program which are also in Candidate Growth Areas). Non -Candidate Growth Areas with Potential to Annex These areas have the following characteristics: - The adjacent city has expressed interest in their General Plan. - The area is not in a Candidate Growth Area. Implementation techniques that could be used in these areas include: A 40 - Discourage in Board pf Supervisors Policy and General Plan the formation of County Service Areas for extended level of services which would be growth inducing and/or for public health and safety reasons. Amend the General Plan. to conform to plans of cities. - Do not target the areas for major capital facility improvements. - Adoption of proposed Board policy regarding city review of County projects. • - Deny land division and rezone applications which are conditioned upon annexation to single service districts, i.e., water or sanitation where the land is not contiguous to the district. -.Place a temporary lot overlay zone on under- developed lands until annexed -to a city. County Islands These are unincorporated areas which are surrounded • or substantially surrounded by the territory ofcne or more cities. •(Areas will be specifically designated.) 41 Implementation techniques that could be used in these areas include: - Identify the appropriate city or cities to which the island should be annexed through consultation with LAFCO staff and the affected,cities. - Determine which islands fit the criteria specified in Assembly Bill 1533 (signed by the Governor on September 30, 1977), for unilateral annexation to a city. Request appropriate city to initiate pro- ceedings to annex those island areas. - Determine island areas for which improvements -..:e necessary in order for appropriate city to annex. Target required improvements in these areas if Annexation can be accomplished, i.e.,-fit defini- tion of A.B. 1533 or residents are interested in annexation. If annexation is not feasible, with- hold improvements except those necessary for public health and safety. Within islands that do not fit A.B. 1533 definition, place T-8 zone overlay on agricultural or under- developed 'land until area is annexed. Encourage LAFCO to stringently enforce the govern- ment code provisions prohibiting annexations which - would create County islands. 1 4 42 3. Social Policy Alternatives Growth Management policies can have an effect on the social and economic character of existing and future communities. The authority for developing a'physical policy recommendation in the social area is based upon Board directive and upon an. identified national effort for local government to assume a positive role in the coordination of physical and social planning. In the adopted goals and objectives, a commitment was made to the development of economically viable and balanced com- munities which would meet the needs of existing and future special target populations. To accomplish this goal, social policies are being developed which will be incorporated into both the candidate growth area selection process and in -the techniques and programs usedi.n the implementation of the Growth Management Program. The'policies identified in this p progress report have been , developed through a coordinated effort of•the Growth -Management, Human Resources Agency and Housing and Community Development staffs. In the development of the initial policies, five basic approaches for coordinating physical and social planning have been identi- fied.* They 'include the following: - Identification of target areas in the Candidate Growth Area Selection Process. r - Identification of land use factors and policies that lead to potential deterioration of communities. 43 - Coordination with the appropriate social service agencies for the planned delivery of social services to target populations within candidate growth areas. - Identify future social service requirements in Candidate Growth Areas. - Preparation of a Social Element as a component of the General Plan. These implementing techniques will address inter -community problems as well as site -specific approaches to certain tar= get populations and community needs. . - IDENTIFICATION OF TARGET AREAS IN CANDIDATE GROWTH " AREA SELECTION PROCESS' J A. complementary relationship between social, land use, capital facilities and economic objectives can t{ be established by providing the incentives that would ; direct private investment -to declining areas and by targeting those areas for public expenditures, partic- ularly the upgrading of facilities. Growth should be ' t' encouraged in certain target areas identified as declining and in areas where planned land use is supportive of meeting low and moderate income housing , needs. In addition to encouraging growth in areas which need to be stimulated economically, comprehensive strategies for the ultimate development of target areas must be established. This would involve identifying, in coor- dination with the Program Planning Management System (PPMS), the Office Housing and Community Development .and the Integrated Planning Office (IPO), the current 44 physical needs of target areas, and tte resources available for these areas. Also to be identified would be the appropriate application of Community Development Funds, Federal Aid to Urban Areas Funds and the IPO Community Planning efforts to meet the highest priority community upgrading objectives. Once the needs of the target areas have been identi- fied and prioritized, these areas may be made more accessible and desirable for private investment by developing and upgrading the infrastructure of the areas. Specifically, Community Development funds may be used for the initial investment in a target area to accomplish any or all of the following: - Site acquisition , - Site development for commercial/industrial use - Public improvements - Commercial rehabilitation The County can also direct capital facilities through the Capital Facilities Program supportive of industrial/ commercial activities to ensure the development and up- 'grading.of these target areas. - IDENTIFICATION OF LAND USE FACTbRS AND POLICIES THAT LEAD TO POTENTIAL DETERIORATION OF COt•LNIUNITIrs Physical factors and land use policies that lead to deterioration of urban and urbanizing areas should `! J be identified. Once these factors and policies have been identified, land development and improvement policies should be modified or amended and interven- tion strategies developed to reverse the trend of declining areas and to preserve existing stable wreas. .N PLANNED DELIVERY OF SOCIAL SERVICES TO TARGET POPULATIONS WITHIN CANDIDATE GROWTH AREAS The necessary regional demographic and physical land use data projections should be provided to the appropriatb social service agencies to enable those agencies to determine and plan for the service delivery needs of target populations in candidate growth areas. This information would assist the social service agencies in the development of blueprints for service delivery needs linked to the notion of a phased development strategy. Through an identification of where the population trends are advancing, the social service agencies can better determine which type of specific community service an area ioill need and where it should be located. IDENTIFY FUTURE SOCIAL SERVICE REQUIREMENTS IN CANDIDATE Service needs and alternative financing schemes should be identified. Specifically, dedication of sites for facilities and in lieu fees 'should be examined. 46 •�. PREPARATION OF A SOCIAL ELEMENT FOR PLACEMENT IN THE GENERAL PLAN A social element as a component of the General Plan should be prepared which prescribes standards that influence the physical land use density, type, loca- tion, access and employment opportunity aspects of long-range planning. Such an element would ensure that the general plan would be a comprehensive instrument for discharging 'the County's responsibilities in all areas of planning, physical, social and economic. It would integrate the physical development of the County with social concerns by incorporating policies, goals, and objectives to meet the community's social needs, while establishing standards and priorities. To ensure that a social element would link planning with resources and administrative action, an imple- mentation plan should also be developed in conjunction with the preparation of the social element. Implementa- tion plans should be a composite of current activities that include the•allocation of available resources and reflect the County's changing needs, priorities and funding. APPE14DICES Appendix I MODIFICATIONS TO THE APPROVED CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA METHODOLOGY On 18 August 1977 the Board of Supervisors approved the Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology. During the impiementation of this methodolt was necessary to modify certain criteria in order to facilitate analysis and to address additional considera- tions•as directed -by the Board of Supervisors. Following is a description of -only those criteria that were modified. All re- maining objectives and criteria were implemented as approved. vital Facilities Objective: "Encourage growth in those areas where public transit exists or its provision is most feasible" (Added by the Board of,Supervisors, 18 August 1977). Criteria used are as follows: + This area is within the existing service area of public transit and/or designated land use patterns are com- patible with the future provision of public transit. This area is beyond the existing service area of public transit and designated land use patterns are not com- patible with the future provision of public transit. Environmental Objective: "Locate growth in temperate areas." In order to facilitate analysis the criteria addressed potential energy requirements for heating and cooling separately. The amended criteria are as follows: Heating + This area experiences less than 1500 heating degree- days. 0 This area experiences between 1500 and 2600 heating degree-days. This area experiences more than 2600 heating degree- days. Cooling + This area is within the San Diego Gas and Electric Air Conditioning Design Temperature Map - Zone A. 0 This area is within the S.D.G.&E. Air Conditioning Design Map Zones B & E - This area is within the S.D.G.&E. Air Conditioning Design Map Zones C, D & F. Social See Appendix II. Economic/fiscal Objectives: "Optimize tax base with land use mix in order to encourage incorporation." • 1 "Urbanize where County expenditures and revenues balance." The data necessary .to perform•the required analyses is not yet available. It is anticipated that the data will be available by November. After analysis has been performed, the ratings for each area will be reviewed to determine if any changes in the current ratings are warranted. i Appendix II SOCIAL AREA ANALYSIS METHOD FOR CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA STUDY Ratings of the social impact of urban density growth on a particular area were based on a statistical analysis of social characteristics of the region. Using information from the 1975 Special Census and from the IPO Growth Information System, census tracts were separated into twenty distinct clusters. Each cluster contains one or more census tracts which.are similar to one another based on an array of data items related to the physical, economic and demographic character- istics of these tracts, The advantage of the cluster analysis method is that it permits the highlighting of features of the social environment which contribute to the unique dynamics of a giv n area. 'This is due to the ability of this method to take into account both the systematic relationships between the indicators used, and to take into account the relative importance of each factcr, without the use of subjective weightings. Refinement of this analysis is currently underway. Relative socioeconomic status was deter- mined as a function of a diverse set of indicators including income, unemployment rate, welfare needs, disease incidence and occupational level. The relative economic stability of an area was determined, by examining the rate of growth in the housing stock, the mobility of the current residents, the presence of those on fixed incomes (elderly and welfare recipients), the percentage of households which were buying their homes, and the income levels of residents. It was assumed that lower middle income areas ($8,000 to $11,000 per house- hold) would be more sensitive to changes in the cost of housing and changing land uses in general. I I-2 ' \ The ratings of different areas of the County were based on'a deter- mination of the relative likelihood that designation as a candidate growth area would: - Result in minimum displacement of existing population.through market forces. - Serve special target populations such as elderly, minority and lower income households. - Tend to preserve and upgrade existing, but declining urban areas. - Lead to more heterogeneous communities, balanced in the sense, of approximating regional levels of income, accommodation of special target populations and employment access. Census Tracts A total of 27 percent wholely or.partially unincorporated tracts were rated highly compatible with these objectives. Another 18-percent of the County tracts were rated neutral. Negative ratings were given to t those areas in which the densities or prices of housing, unavailability of employment or of rental units made meeting the needs of target popu- lations relatively unlikely without interventions through economic development, housing or social "service programs. t Appendix III CANDIDATE GROWTH AREA SELECTION PROCESS: \ Preliminary Results This section contains the results of Growth Management staff's preliminary application of the Candidate Growth Area Selection Methodology. The following areas of the County are included: - all areas that received an overall positive or neutral rating = certain areas that are currently under development pres- sure, but received an overall negative rating As indicated above the areas were developed•by combining TAZ'S or Sub-TAZ'S that are geographically related and had similar ratings. Altogether 291 TAZ'-S or Sub-TAZ received full eval- uation on all criteria. The 15 areas identified below as re- ceiving overall positive or neutral ratings, are comprised of 152 TAZ'S or Sub=TAZ'S. The 7.areas identified below as re- ceiving negative ratings constitute 16 TAWS or Sub ITAZIS. The remaining 123 TAZ'S or Sub-TAZ'S not reported on in this section also received negative overall ratings. However, they are•not presented in detail as they are not currently subject to de= velopment pressure. AREAS RECEIVING POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL RATINGS Alpine Townsite North Vista Buena Poggi Canyon(south of Sweetwater) Carlsbad -San Marcos Islands Poway Escondido Fringe Area Ramona Townsite Fallbiook Townsite San Dieguito Coastal/Rancho Santa Fe Lakeside/S.antee South San Marcos Montgomery Sweetwater/Rice Canyon , � :; E Xalle de Oro/Rancho San Diego III-2 AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER GROWTH PRESSURE WHICH RECEIVED NEGATIVE RATINGS Blossom Valley Bonita Miguel Crest/Harbison Canyon Jamul Jesmond Dene •(north of Escondido) Otay Mesa Valley Center Townsite SUWIARY BY ItNTRIX SUMMARY OF u OVERALL u N m W H RATINGS ' � o :, 0 41 a)a k + -: o •.+ :% .14 41 U m N a k a m 0 a H u N a a a N u 54 N ro O "' x x m C� H e~ OBJECTIVE w $, a c a m o+ +1 -' u m c a H a) a a �. o u m u H E � m H C F a .1 v f i N •V' rl H a H o N '•1 �I 1-4O a t ri r-I > O t r-1 '•i 0 N N M � N .t M AREA a a U w V x U) w o Alpine Townsite + 0 + + 0 - 0 + - + 0 0 + 0 0 -Buena + 0 + + + + + + - + + + 0 - + + Carlsbad/San Marcos Islands + - + + +/0 + 11 + 0 + + + 0 + + Escondido Fringe + - 0 + - + 0 + -0/- + 0 + 0 I + W + 0 Fallbrook + 0 + + +/0 + + + - + + + 0 0 E-, - + Lakeside/Santee + 0 + + +/0 + t + - + + + + + W + + Montgomery + 0 + + + + + + 0 + + + + + a + + North Vista + 0 + + 0 +/- 0 0 0 + + 0 I - + p, + Poggi Canyon - 0 -0 - + - + 0 0 + ++0 EO Poway + 0 0 + +/0 +/- + + - + 0 0 0 - O 0 + Ramona Townsite - 0 - + + + + + - + 0 0 0 + V = 0 San Dieguito + 0 + + +/0 +/- + + 0 + 0 + + 0 - + Coastal So. San Marcos + 0 + + 0 + + + 0 + + + 0 + + + Sweetwater/ + 0 +v + + +/- + 0 0 + + + 0 - E, + + Ride Canyon Valley de Or + 0 + + +/0 •+ + + 0 + + + + + O - + Rancho San Die H Blossom Valley - 0 - +/0 - - - + - + 0 0 + 0 - Bonita Miguel - 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - - - 0 - Crest/Harbison + 0 0 +/0 0/- - 0/- + - + - - - + 0 Jamul - 0 - 0/- - - - 0 - + - - - + 0 - Jesmond Dane + 0 + - - + - + - + - 0 - - + Otay Mesa - - - 0/- - +/-1 1 0 + 0 - Valley Center - 0 - 0 - - - + - 0] - - Townsite I i 1I'-4 ALPINE TOWNSITE Area Description An area of approximately two square miles constituting the existing townsite of Alpine. The 1975 population was approximately 3,600. Overall Rating NEUTRAL Although cunetioning as an urban center, Alpine has'a-limited area served with the full range of urban services. Individual Category Ratings: Specific Objectives Overall Land Use Overall + Encoutage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital'Pacilities Overall' 0 Contiguous Expansion Possible + Fability Capacity Exist 0 Transit Service Possible - Environmental Overall. 0 Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling - Imported Plater Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirement 0 Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that + may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social courage D�:velopnleliLdii Declining Areas 0 Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has - Compatible Land Use Designations fi BUENA Area Description An area of approximately five square miles located between Vista and San Marcos. The 1975 population was approximately•5,000. Overall Rating, POSITIVE Buena is an area served by necessary urban services and is contiguous to two incorporated communities. Additional development would have minimal environmental impact. Individual Category Ratings: Specific • Objectives Overall Land Use Overall ? + Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + 4 Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 1 Capital Facilities Overall' Contiguous Expansion Possible + ; Facility Capacity Exist + Transit Service Possible + Environmental Overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0/- Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + Compatible Land Use Designations CARLSBAD-SAN MARCOS ISLANDS Area Description The area consists of four unincorporated islands in the Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos area. The four areas constitute approximately seven square miles. These pare largely uninhabited with a 1975 population of 100. Overall Rating POSITIVE Although the areas are presently undeveloped, their proximity to adjacent cities which could enhance facility development and the lack of environmental constraints resulted in an overall positive rating. Individual Category Ratings: SpecificObjectives Overall Land Use Overall + Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses - Capital Facilities Overall .+ Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist +/0 i Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 � Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + j Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas - f . Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + Compatible Land Use Designations III-7 ' ESCONDIDO FRINGE Area Description j An area of approximately five square miles surrounding Escondido. The 1975 population was 8,000. overall Rating NEUTRAL The area is positive in terms of proximity to existing urbanization and employment centers but negative because of low density land use designations, existing agriculture and lack of facilities. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives I Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses Capitai Facilities Overall Contiguous Expansion Possible Facility Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall Protect Environmentally Significant Areas Minimize Space Cleating and Cooling Imported Plater Can Be Provided Minimize Transportation Requirements Housing• Land Use Designation Provides Densities that may permit Low and/or Moderate Income•llousing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation within a City's Sphere of Planning and has Compatible Land Use Designations 0/- 0 Overall 0 i 0 i 111-a FALLBROOK TOWNSITE Area Description An area of approximately seven square miles constituting the existing town site of Fallbrook. The 1975 population was approximately 10,000. Overall Rating POSITIVE The townsite is a full} served, developing urban center where further development would have minimal environmental impacts. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall Land .Use Overall + Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + . Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities Overall + Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist +/0 Transit Service.Possible + Environmental Overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling - Imported V7ater,Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social ' Encourage Development in Declining Areas 0 Annexation , Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has - sr 1 1n•+ Use D- , 4Compatihle Land Use Designations azx-9 ' LA.MsIDE-SANTEE ; Area Description 's'his area of approximately 30 square miles consists of all' of the Santee Community Planning Area except for the northeast fringe and that portion of the Lakeside Community Planning Area within the community plan Urban Limit Line. The 1975 population was approximately 78,000. Overall Rating 'POSITIVE These are established suburban communities appropriate for accomodating additional development. • Specific Indi"vidual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall 4,and Use Overall + Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + ' Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities Overall + Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist +/0 Transit Service Possible + Environmental Overall + ' Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + ; Minimize Spare beating and Cooling Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that + .. may permit Low and/or Moderate Income housing • Social Encourage Development -in Declining Areas + ' Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + ' sbmpatible Iand' Use Designations I , Area Description An area of approximately four square miles between Chula Vista and the San Ysidro area of the City of San Diego. The 1975 population was approximately 15,000. Overall Rating POSITIVE Further development of this area would be consistent with most of the objectives evaluated. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and,Contiguous Urbanization Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses Capital Facilities Overall' Contiguous Expansion Possible Facility Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental + 0 Overall Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 Imported Plater Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing , Land Use Designation provides Densities that may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation. Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has ' Compatible Land Use Designations NORTH VISTA Area Description An area of approximately four square miles along the northern edge of Vista. The 1975 population was approximately 1,500. ` Overall Rating NEUTRAL i This semi -rural area received an overall rating of neutral because of uncertain priority for facility allocations and the marginal environmental and housing ratings. { Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives overall Land Use Overall + Encourage Ipfilling and Contiguous Urbanization. + Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities Overall 0 Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist 0 Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall 0 , Protect Environmentally Significant Areas 0 'Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 Imported Water Can Be Provided . + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing , Land'Use Designation Provides Densities that ` may permit Low and/or rloderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas + • Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + Compatible Land Use Designations A III-12 ' POGGI CANYON Area Description An area of approximately five square miles south of the Sweetwater Community Planning Area and north,of Otay Mesa: The area is largely undeveloped and had a 1975,population of approximately 100. Overall Rating NEUTRAL Although lacking in basic facility needs and failing to meet other criteria, the area received a neutral rather than negative rating because of its proximity to Chula Vista which provides shopping and employment centers. Specific Individual Category Ratings: objectives I Overall Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses Capital Facilities Overal'L Contiguous Expansion Possible. Facility Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall Protect Environmentally Significant Areas Minimize Space Heating an& Cooling Imported I -later Can Be Provided Minimize Transportation Requirements Housing - Land Use Designation Provides Densities that may permit -Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has Compatible Land Use Designations 0 0 + 0 0 + i• 0 POWAY Area Description This area consists of approximately 22 square miles and consists of portions of the Poway Community Planning Area west of Espola Road and south of Poway Road. The 1975 population was approximately 26,000. Overall Rating POSITIVE One half of the 'iA2s were rated overall positive while the other half were rated neutral. The central portions received the positive ratings. In general, facili- ties could be provided. Its geographic location and lack of employment centers will result in increased energy consumption. Individual Category Ratings: Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling'and Contiguous Urbanization Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses Capital Facilities Overall Contiguous Expansion Possible Facility, Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall Protect Environmentally Significant Areas Minimize Space Heating and Cooling Imported Water Can Be Provided Minimize Transportation Requirements Specific Objectives Overall 0 0 +/0 0 0 Housint Land Use Designation'Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas - Anne5kation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has 0 Compatible Land Use Designations II1-14 RAMONA TOWNSI'M The area consists of approximately five square miles and includes the townsite of Ramona and the area adjacent to Highway 67. The 1975 population was 4,300. Overall Rating NEUTRAL The area received an overall neutral rather '.,nari positive rating because of extensive rural residential plan designations and because the area is relatively undeveloped and geographically separated from the County's urban areas. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall i Land Use Overall Encourage Infilli.ng and Contiguous Urbanization - Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 } Capital Facilities Overall f• Contiguous Expansion Possible + i d' Facility Capacity Exist + h ° Transit Service Possible + s Environmental overall 0 Protect Environmentally significant Areas + liiriimize Space Heating and Cooling Imported Ilater Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements 0 Housing Land•'Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social + • Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation Within a City's sphere of Planning and has - -• `' "Compatible Land Use Designations SAN DIEGUITO COASTAL/RANCHO SANTA FE Area Description An area of 24 square miles consisting of Leucadia, Encinitas, Cardiff -by -the -Sea, Solana BeacV, Olivenhain, and the Rancho Santa Fe covanent area. The 1975 population was 39,000. Overall Rating POSITIVE Olivenhain and Rancho Santa Fe received overall neutral ratings while the remaining areas were rated positive. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Overall Objectives . Land ,Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + i ,Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 i Capital Facilities Overall Contiguous Expansion Possible Facility Capacity Exist +/0 Transit Service Possible Envir onmental , ! overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating,and Cooling 0 : Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements 0 Housing Land Use Designation provides Densities that may permit Low and/or FIoderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining -Areas 0 Annexation I �•��5'`c Within a, City!s Sphere of Planning and has ` Compatible Land Use Designations SO SAN MARC-,.- Area Description \ An area of five square miles south of Route ';i2 including Lake San Marcos Community. The 1975 population was approximately•5,000. Overall Rating POSITIVE The existing development level, availability of facilities and minimal environmental impacts from additional development resulted'in the•overall positive rating. � Individual Category -Ratings: Specific Objectives Overall Land Use f Overall k + Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 a Capital Facilities i 'Overall + Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist 0 Transit Service Possible + Environmental Overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may permit Low and/or Modr•ate Income Housing Social • Encourage Development in Declining Areas + Annexation , Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + -Compatible Land Use Designations r 1II--17 SWEETWATER AND RICE CANYON Area Description An area of approximately nine square miles including all of Sweetwater Community Planning Area and Lincoln Acres. Rice Canyon is an undeveloped County island surrounded by Chula Vista. The 1975 population of these three areas was 16,500. Overall Rating POSITIVE 'The area is served by urban facilities and is adjacent to urban areas. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives overall Land Use Overall + Encourage Tnfilling and Contiguous Urbanization + Preserve and Expand -Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities _ overall + ' Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist + Transit Service Possible Environmental overall + ' Protect Environmentally Significant Areas 0 Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0 may -permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing social Encourage Development in Declining Areas _ Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + Compatible Land Use Designations VALLE DE ORO/RANCHO SAN DIEGO Area Description An area of approximately twenty square miles consisting of all the Valle de Oro Community Planning Area. The 1975 population was approximately 67,000. Overall Ratings POSITIVE Nearly all objectives were met by this area. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall Land -Use Overall + Encourage•Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities Overall + Contiguous Expansion Possible + Facility Capacity Exist +/0 Transit Service Possible + Environmental Overall + Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling 0 Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements + Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that + may permit Low and/or ftderate Income Housing social Encourage Development in Declining Areas + Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has - Compatible Land Use Designations BLOSSOM VALLEY \ Area Description This area of approximately three square miles is between Lakeside and Alpine to the north of Interstate 8. The area is within the Lakeside Community Planning area. The 1975 population was approximately 3,000. Overall Rating NEGATIVE The area received a negative rating because it lacks facilities and is not adjacent to urbanized areas. Also, large lot development of the area is appropriate to the rural setting and preempts extensive urbanization. Specific Indiyidualj'Category Ratings: Objectives Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization - Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities 'Overall Contiguous Expansion Possible +/0 Facility Capacity Exist - Transit Service Possible - Environmental , Overall Protect Environmentally.Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling - Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements 0 Housing' Land Use Designation Provides Densities that may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation , Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has Compatible Land Use Designations Overall 0 0 , BONITA MIGUEL Area Description \ This area contains four square miles and is generally comprised of the western slope of Mother Miguel Mountain, south of the Sweetwater Reservoir. The 1975 population was 100. Overall Rating NEGATIVE This area is separated from existing urban development and lacks essential facilities. i Individual Cateqory Ratings: SpecificON ectives Overall Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization - Preserve find Expand Agricultural Uses p Capital Facilities overall i 0 Contiguous Expansion Possible • 0 i Facility Capacity Exist 0 1 Transit Service Possible _ Environmental Overall _ Protect Environmentally Significant Areas 0 Minimize Space Heating and Cooling - Iinported Water Can Be Provided 0 ,Minimize Transportation Requirements - Housing Land Use Designation Provides Dansities that - may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing social Encourage Development in Declining Areas - Annexation 'Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has 0 -. ;. V.—, • ..._.Compatible Land Use Designations CREST RAkjk:i oN CM420N Area Description This area consists of the three small communities of La Cresta, Suncrest, and Harbison Canyon, covering a combined Brea of three square miles. The area is in the foothills east of E1 Cajon. The 1975 population was 4,500. Overall Rating kGATIVE These areas are distant from shopping and employment centers and are not contiguous to existing urban development. 1 Specific Individual Category Ratings: -Objectives Overall Land Use j Overall- 0 Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization + y Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 s Capital Facilities } Overall 0 /_ Contiguous Expansion Possible +/0 Facility Capacity Exist 0/_ Transit Service Possible .. Environmental !� Overall _ Protect Environmentally Significant Areas' + --- Minimize Space Beating and Cooling - imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas + Annexation _ Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has 0 Compatible Land ,Use Designations ' 111-22 JAMUL \Area Description Jamul lies four miles east of the Sweetwater River on Highway 94, south and easterly of the E1 Cajon Valley. The 'area contains three square miles and had a 1975 population of approximately 2,000. Overall Rating NEGATIVE Jamul is removed from any urbanizing areas. There are major facilities and envrionmental constraints. Specific Individual Co : late Ratings: g � g Objectives Overall Land Use Overall _ Encourage Snfilling and Contiguous Urbanization - Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital'Facilities Overall - Contiguous Expansion Possible 0/- Facility Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible - Environmental Overall _ I Protect Environmentally Significant Areas 0 Minimize Space Heating and Cooling _ Imported Water Can Be Provided + 3 Minimize Transportation Requirements - Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that maypermit, Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas + Annexation ' Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has 0 �Coirpatible Lind Use Designations III-23 JESMOND DENE I -Area Description The Jeswnd Dene area lies north of the Escondido fringe on the east side of U.S. 395. The area contains two square miles and had a 1975 population of 1,500. Overall Rating NEGATIVE The area received an overall negative because of the lack of facilities and the distance to*shopping and employment centers. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall Land Use Overall + Encourage Snfilling and Contiguous Urbanization + , Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 Capital Facilities Overall Contiguous Expansion -Possible Facility Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall 0 Protect Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements Housing Land Use Designation Provides Densities that may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas Annexation Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has + Compatible Land Use Designations T.� Itt-'L9 OTAY MESA Area Description \ ' The Otay Mesa area extends from the eastern San Diego rity limit of the. San Ysidro community to the foothills and•includes the.Srown Field area between the Otay,River Valley and the international bouneAary. The area contains.11 i square miles and had a 1975 population of 500. 'Uverall Rating MGATIVE The mesa and border areas are -removed from (existing urbanization. There are major facilities and environmental constraints. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives Overall Land Use Overall Encourage Infilling and Contiguous Urbanization Preserve.ana Expand Agricultural Uses ; Capital Facilities .Overall Contiguous�Ex:ansion Possible 0/- Facility-Capacity Exist Transit Service Possible Environmental Overall Protect Environmentally Significant Areas Minimize Space Heating -and, tooling - Lnported Waster Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements - Housing, Land Use Designation Provides Densities that 0' f may permit Loa and/or Moderate Income Housing, Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas + Annexation r within a City's Sphere of Planning and has 0• Compatible Land Use Designations II1-25 • _ T _ VALLEY CENTER TOWNSITE Area Description Valley Center is a rural serving community north of Escondido on County Road S-6, eight miles east of Interstate 15. The town center contains 1 squa`re mile and,had a 1975 population of approximately 2,000. Overall Rating NEGATIVE .ti The town site is underdeveloped and far removed from existing urbanization. Facilities'are unable to accomodate significatn additional development. Specific Individual Category Ratings: Objectives overall ; Land Use Overall - Encourage•In£illing and Contiguous Urbanization - Preserve and Expand Agricultural Uses 0 ! Capital Facilities Overall a, Contiguous Expansion Possible 0 Facility Capacity Exist - Transit Service Possible - Environmental + Overall' 10 Protect'Environmentally Significant Areas + Minimize Space Heating and Cooling - , • Imported Water Can Be Provided + Minimize Transportation Requirements •0 Housing, Land'Use Designation Provides Densities that ' may permit Low and/or Moderate Income Housing Social Encourage Development in Declining Areas 0 • Annexation r Within a City's Sphere of Planning and has Compatible Land Use Designations \ Appendix IV 'ATTAINABLE POPULATIONS IN COMMUNITY PLAN AREAS RECEIVING POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL RATINGS The attached table shows an initial estimate of the practical or attainable population if future growth were to be restricted to the positive and neutral areas within each community and subregional planning area. Of the 19•areas within the western third of the County only three (Valle de Oro, Santee and Lakeside) appear able to accommodate the community population goals if future growth is restricted to the positive and neutral areas only. Explanation of Table Column 1 Identifies each of the 19 community planning or subregional planning areas in the western on -third of the County Column.2 Identifies 1975 population Columns 3,4,5 Show holding capacity for the area if only the positive and neutral TAZ's were used for futrue growth Column 6 Identifies 1975 population location in areas given a negative rating Column 7 Identifies the planning areas stated popula- tion goal Column 8 Shows what percentage of the projected popu- lation would be accommodated if all future development was confined to TAZ's rated positive or neutral Column 9 Shows what percentage of projected dwelling units could be accommodated at urban densi- ties within the TAZ's rated positive or neutral 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HOLDING CAPACITY IF ONLY POSITIVE NEGATIVE COMMUNITY PLAN PERCENTAGE AREAS OF DUt. Itt^ PERCENT AND NEUTRAL AREAS DEVELOPED EXISTING CGA 1975 (1975) POPULATION ACCOM- 34ED• RES. AREA POPULATION POSITIVE NEUTRAL TOTAL POPULATION GOAL MODATION /OR DENSER AREAS AREAS Poway CP 25,700 28,100 11,900 40,000 400 45,000 89.8 46.9 .Sweetwater CP 16,500 13,300 2,900 16,200 -- 20,000 81.0 36.7 Valle de Oro CP 67,400 92,200 24,800 117,000 % 00 94,000 124.6 74.8 Santee CP 39,600 88,800 4,700 93,500 -- 75,000 124.7 95.5 Lakeside CP1 38,500 39,900 ,5,100 45,000 3,500 50,000 97.0 54.6 i Alpine CP 4,600 -- 6,600 6,600 1,000 10,750' 70.7 90.7 Ramona CP 8,000 -- 9,800 9,800 3,700 28,500 47.4 82'.9 ,San Dieguito CP 41,600 59,000 13,000 72,000 1,300 90,000 81.4 68.5 Fallbrook CP 13,400 19,700 3,700 23,400 4,500 36,000 77.5 58.8 Rainbow CP 2,200 -- -- -- 2,200 6,000 36.7 0.0 Valley Center CP 4,000 -- -- -- 4,000 10,000 40.0 0.0 Otay SR N/A -0- 13,000 13,000 2,500* N/A N/A 100.0 South Bay SR N/A 18,100 -0- 18,100 -- N/A N/A 100.0 Jamul-Dulzurr N/A -- -- -- 2,700* N/P. N/A 0.0, Crest-Dehesa SR N/A 2,400 500 2,900 1,400 N/A N/A 75.2 North County SR N/A 57,300 50,800 108,100 9,700 N/A N/A 93.5 Pendleton-Deluz N/A __ __ 23,100* (200) N/A N/A 0.0 Pala Parma SR N/A -- -- -- 1,700 N/A N/A 0.0 Lincoln Pcres N/A 3,400 -- 3,400 -- N/A N/A. -100.0 569,000 62,000 N/A N/A * Tentative Series IV B population projections; Board of Supervisors approvals pending. i IV-2 r i \ Appendix V OPTIONS FOR PHASING - A BACKGROUND PAPER Preliminary analysis has identified 25 to 30 potentially applicable implementing techniques for phasing. Other implementing techniques not discussed here address incentives, disincentives or required legal supports to a growth management program. Some of the phasing techniques in the following summary are in use by the County and nted modification; many are innovative tools or new combinations of traditional approaches to planning authority/govern- mental management. These include zoning, long-range land use planning .and careful execution of improvement programs and service provision responsibilities. Part I•of the summary is a matrix which describes the techniques, characteristics and documents which it employs. The areas of "Applicability" are identified by marks corresponding to the phasing objective(s) which the technique could accomplish. For example, an "Urban Limit Line" could be effectively employed to identify urban, Urban Reserve and Prime Annexation areas. A mark to "all" indicates the technique may be utilized to indirectly meet all phasing objec- tives either idependently, interchangeably or in conjunction with other primary strategy components. Part II groups the various implementing techniques and discusses six basic options for utilizing them as components of a phasing strategy. The six strategies use each technique in Part I only once. Strategy No. i suggests a combination of primary components from the list which could form the nucleus of a growth management program. V-2 PART I „�.. SUMMARY OF IMPLEMENTATION TECHNIQUES FOR PHASING TECHNIQUE 'APPLICABILITY (Implementing document and general z characteristics) -haw I Ho URBAN LIMIT LINE - on General Plan map or in special ordinance; defines planned facility service area to urban uses; can be tied to population forecast or quota: DENSITY REDUCTION - in Zoning Ordinance or in General plan text, land use map, and zoning compatibility matr?.x; brings facility and resource capability closer to plan holding capacity.. POINT SYSTEM - in Subdivision Ordinance, Zoning Ordinance, General Plan Conformance (other administra- tive procedure or Board of Supervisor. Policy), special ordinance i.e., SCRAM or Facility Adequacy Ordinance; consistantly rates development proposals for meeting objectives. QUOTA - in Point Syfitem or special ordinance; tied to regional and subregional population projections. SIX YEAR CAPITAL FACILITY PROGRAM - Budget and Program Planning Management System; facility improvement strategy to serve growth areas coordinated with land use plans and development approvals. May have buffer area beyond programed improvements where developer provides all needed facilities and contributes toward offsite services on a per -unit basis. LONG RANGE CAPITAL FACILITY PROGRAM - generalized expanded version of above. FACILITY ADEQUACY ORDINANCE - special ordinance or component of subdivision ordinance; would contain point system and/or performance standards. GROUNDWATER STUDIES - Subdivision Ordinance; require proof of adequacy w/o depletion. LOT SPLIT STANDARD REDUCTION - Subdivision Ordinance; streamline land division standards in "infill" areas. OPEN SPACE EASEMENT - special ordinances encourage in i:&u larq General Plan and large scale subdivision process. Ala 'i-lri' XI X V-3 r, SUMMARY OF IMPLEMENTATION TECHNIQUES FOR PHASING TECHNIQUE (Implementing document and general characteristics) APPLICABILITY AGRICULTURAL PRESERVE - special ordinance; Board policy General Plan,text and map designation, contract can be.used to buffer urban fringe areas and protect viable scale agriculture. MAXIMUM DENSITY LAND USAGE - General Plan, Zoning Sub- division Ordinance; defer commitment or fringe areas by meeting facility and population capacities w/in urbanized centers. MASTER ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORTS - prepared for Community Plans or other deliniated areas for growth management program; streamlines project EIR'S in preferential development areas. T -ZONING - Zoning•Ordinance, LU Compatability Matrix; defers commitment of urban reserve or unserved areas. EXPANDED SEPTIC TANK STANDARDS - General Plan,.Subdi- vision Ordinance; Health Dept. Policy; require 200' of leachline per bedroom and 100% perk testing of TPM and TM lots. 100' SIDEYARD REQUIREMENTS - zoning ordinance, General Plan; permit low density in urban reserve with capabi- lity of further lot splits when facilities can accom- modate. DECREASE SLOPE/DENSITY - General Plan; permit fewer DU'S/per Acre in Rural Residential category, etc. URBAN RESERVE CATEGORY - General Plan; create new category or "overlay" applying stringent present uses and appealing urban uses after specified time, i.e., ,85. Alternative to Urban Limit Line. SPECIAL USE PERMIT - Zoning Ordinance; apply spot or blanket regulation/procedure (May include point system and/or performance standards/which objectively de- creases development potential or rates development prc ,posals against a quota. , MAXIMUM LOT COVERAGE REQUIREMENTS - Zoning Ordinancel -,era; General Plan add rural land usage standard; i.e., 1 . (2hAC) . X X X X X xx X XX XXX X X 1 XX I ;I X v-a SUMMARY OF IMPLEMENTATION TECHNIQUES FOR PIiASING TECHNIQUE (Implementing document and general characteristics) APPLICABILITY LARGE LOT BUFFER - General Plan, Subdivision Ordinance, encourage the completion of "band" or buffer of low density land commitment around urban areas. ANNEXATION/INCORPORATION POLICY - techniques to effect of Planning Influenc densignation: Rural Town CSD Designation - encourage towns w/ incorporation poten- tial to develop full service capability and local leadership. T-Holding Zone - constraiii land use changes until area annexes. Community Services Area - establish improvement districts which bring -facilities into confor- mance w/adjacent city's standards,. Captial Facilities Plan Target Area - County focus of improvement monies into candidate annex/inc. areas. Conformity w/City Development Standards - improve, ments on development proposals within CGA's required to be consis- tent with adjacent •city's public works standards. A-95 GUIDELINES - BS Policy; develop criteria and Policy to.set tone for County position on A-95 faci- lity/improvement grant applications. • DENSITY TRANSFER - General Plan, Zoning, Subdivision Ordinance; encourage contiguious urban uses in Urban Reserve areas while leaving large portions of parcels committed for deferred development. IX fX P a w A V-5 SUMMARY OF IPL•EMENTATION TECHNIQUES '.I PHASING TECHNIQUE APPLICABILITY (Implementing document and general 2 characteristics) O z o� sC W EE-H O � (40 PERFORMANCE STANDARDS - Zoning Ordinance, Subdivision Ordinance, General Plan, special ordinance, i.e., Facility Adequacy Ordinance; enforce allowable resource consumption (i.e., water, energy) or land use disruption levels (i.e., agricultural lands or regionally significant open spaces). SEWER CAPACITY RESERVE ALLOCATION MATRIX (SCRAM) Special ordinance, Subdivision Ordinance; point system focused on directing and phasing development approval where sewer facilities are adequate. AGRICULTURE ZONING - Agriculture Element, Zoning Ordinance; creation of Agriculture protection oriented land use criteria, usually very large lot or contract -protected clusters of medium sized lots. OPEN SPACE ACQUISITION - Budget, General Plan; Delin- eation of regional park or other OS areas to be held from urban use via fee simple acquisition. GENERAL PLANNING = General Plan; integrated body of objectives, principles, standards and diagrmas which effect land utalization policy. Prioritizes lands for type, location and intensity of potential urbanizaiton zu", Mz211 CC 4 04 X M XX 3 V- 6 I .� PART II' SUMMARY OF PHASING STRATEG OPTIONS A review of Part I, Implementing Techniques for Phasing, reveals the overlapping and complementary nature of most techniques or strategy components. 'The following discussion reviews a number of alternative component groupings to effec various levels of severity and certainty in achieving phasing. Groupings are in the order of least deviation from the existing County planning programs. STRATEGY COMPONENTS DISCUSSION 1. General Planning Master EIR's Performance Standards Six Year CFP Long Range CFP 2. A-95 Guidelines Lot Split Std. Reduction AG. Preserve/OS Easement Decrease Slope/Density Large Lot Buffer 3. Density Reduction Expanded Septic Tani: Std. Density Transfer SCRAM 4. Urban Limit Line Point System Facility Adequacy Ordinance Special Use Permit S. Quota Maximum Density Land Use T-Zoning Annexation Policy, 6. 100' Sideyard Requirement Urban Reserve Category Lot Cov..rage• Requirements Ag. Zoning Open Space Acquisition These existing programs need detailed "tuning" or technical revisions plus emphasis on their completion to more precisely phase and effect regiona'1 and subregional land use patterns. These neglected existing programs could be modified to establish a commited land resource to rural uses and infill or urban areas. This comL.nation defines rural, preserves Lrban reserve and allocates facility capacity to appropriate areas. These commonly used growth management techniques create additional regulations which direct the character and location of growth. These strong new regulations.precisely ? fulfill projections and will stear urbanization into cities. These precise and definative ;.iethods establish urban reserve and rural area policies and indirectly influence irfilling. PART xI I ' STRATEY COMPONENTS 7• A-95 Guidelines Density Reduction Facility Adequacy Ordinance Urban Limit Line Annexation Policy V-7 DISCUSSION This'suggested combination addresses the existing weaknesses in the county's i long range management of regional land patterns, zoning, facility improvements, the General Plan and annexation. The components expand existing and add.new techniques to implement Community Plans in a regional context by meeting the Growth Management Objectives. Wise use of the,land resources could be guided in the mid -range and near term by an Annexation Policy complimented by a Facility Adequacy Ordinance within the 1985 Urban Limit line (area capable of accomodating the regional i995 population projections). In the long } range (10-20 + years) areas where land is physically suitable for urbanization, land utilization commitment should ' await decisions on air quality management,!, sewer, water, access, and energy facility ?; availability. This can be addressed] by Density Reduction in presently non - urban fringe areas and by the applica- tion of Guidelines for establishing County positions on the appropriateness and timeliness of A-95 Federal facility �! improvement grants. ti i j