HomeMy WebLinkAbout1979-05-01; City Council; 5803-1; Lake Calavera Hills sewage treatment plant reportCITY OF CARLSBAD
Cty. Atty .
Cty. Mgr.
May 1, 1979 DATE :
DEPARTMENT: Planninq . -.
SUBJECT: MONTGOMERY REPORT, LAKE cA~VERA HILU WASTE WATER TREATMENT PLANT - POLICY ISSUES-
Statement of the Matter
The Montqomery Report is a combination EIR/facilities plan, -with financial
considerations. On April 3, 1979, the City Council reviewed the report
and certified the EIR for the Lake Calavefa Hills waste water treatment ;
plant.
plan and financial considerations.
addressed along with the zone change and precise development plan applica- tion.
However, the City Council did not review in depth the'facilities It was decided-those issues would be * .
'At the April 17, 19-79 meeting the City Coundil reviewed their previous
actions and decided that further review of tke Montgomery reportawas
necessary by the City Council to provide guidance. directed to formulate the issues within the Montgomery report and others
as determined necessary for proper guidance. May l., with possible workshop on May 8 and final action on May 15.
Attachments
Memo from James C. Hagaman, dated 4f27/79
(Montgomery report previously submitted to City Council)
Therefore staff was
The meeting was set for
T
.. . Recommendation
The City Council should review the attached report and provide guidance
.to the Planning Commission and staff for future decisions on specific
applications.
For purposes of final accounting and billing the Montgomery Report should . be formally accepted by City Council.
HP: jc:
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.. Council Action: a.
5-1-79 Council accepted as policy a s-atellite plant in the Northeast drainage basin and agreed that it b'e coupled with reclamation faci 1 i ties. Council continued the rema'inder of.,'the, di'scussion to Tuesday, May 8, 1979, at 7:OO P.M.
5-8-79 See Minutes for actions. .
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MEMORANDUM
DATE : April 27, 1979
TO : Paul Bussey, City Manager w
FROM: James Hagaman, Planning Director
SUBJECT: LAKE CALAVERA HILLS SEWER TREATMENT PLANT ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Background
On April 19, 1979, the City Council imposed a building permit moratorium due to the lack of sewage treatment capacity at the
Encina Water Pollution Control Facility. Prior to that time, sewage treatment availability was governed like every other public facility, that is, by the Public Facilities Element of the General Plan and corresponding City Council policy. Sewer permits were basically issued on a first come, first serve basis.
At the time of the moratorium, all of the sewage treatment
within the City of Carlsbad, with the exception of a few
individual septic system, was provided by Encina. The mora-
torium provides for an alternative form of sewage treatment
if approved by the City Council. Since additional capacity
at Encina is not expected until at least 1982, a few major
developers have submitted alternative proposals for sewage
treatment for City Council consideration.
Late in 1977, in conjunction with his proposed Master Plan
Amendment, Roy Ward of Lake Calavera Hills Associates, proposed
the construction of a satellite sewage treatment plant with
a 500,000 gallon per day capacity to serve his project. The
Council rejected this proposal but agreed to study the
potential for a wastewater reclamation program for the entire
City. This study resulted in a what's referred to as the
"overview" report prepared by Lowry and Associates.
As a result of the findings of the "overview" report, the City Council opted to investigate the feasibility of developing a specific satellite treatment facility within the Lake Calavera Hills drainage basin. James M. Montgomery and Associates was retained by the City to prepare an environ-
mental impact report, a project report and a financial
report.
The EIR in the Montgomery study was then processed through
the Planning Commission and certified by the City Council
on April 3, 1979. At the Council hearing on the EIR, staff
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April 27, 1979
Page 2
identified certain policy issues that had been raised elsewhere in the Montgomery study. However, the Council felt the
appropriate forum for such questions would be during the public
hearing on the Zone Change for the specific project.
Following the Commission's action on the EIR, staff began pro-
cessing a Zone Change and Precise Development Plan application
from Lake Calavera Hills Associates. In their report to the
Commission, staff again identified those policy issues, as well
as the design, land use and environmental issues, that were
raised in the Montgomery study.
The Council has now instructed the Planning Commission to table
their final action until the Council can discuss the Montgomery
study and provide policy guidance to staff and the Commission.
B. Intent of this Report
The basis for staff's recommendation on the proposed satellite
plant is the Montgomery study. This study is designed to ask
and initiate discussion on policy issues. Since the City Council
did not discuss these issues during the certification of the EIR, staff made many assumptions in their report and recommendation to the Planning Commission. Most assumptions were simple to
establish since there were limited practical solutions to the
particular issues, but there were many basic policy issues contained in the Montgomery study that the City Council should properly address and resolve. At the Planning Commission hearing the Commission indicated they were uncomfortable with making a recommendation based on assumptions of so many policy issues. Therefore, the intent of this report is to examine the issues
brought up by the Montgomery study. By doing this review staff and the Planning Commission will have policy guidance for our recommendations.
To formulate the major issues, staff had to answer many small issues or technical questions, which are contained in this
report. They are for your information, but if you disagree or have any comments this is the appropriate time to share your thoughts with staff. Many of these questions will appear simple or redundant, but we believe they are necessary for
complete understanding. Also, there are many inter-relationships
between the policy issues that require duplicating similar
questions for different Purposes.
This report is knfive sections. Each section is headed by a
major policy issue, and further divided into questions we feel
are necessary to provide proper understanding of the major
policy questions. The issues are so interrelated that staff suggests that you not attempt to answer the issues until all questions have been reviewed.
April 27, 1979
Page 3
This exercise is like zeroing in on one problem only to find it opens a whole new world of questions with many new avenues of concern. Naturally staff could not be totally comprehensive in this report, or predict all consequences or answer all questions.
11. ISSUES
A. Is a satellite treatment facility desirable?
This of course is the most critical of all policy issues.
Even though this is the leading question it cannot be
adequately addressed without reviewing other issues.
This is the first question asked, but may be the last
answered. Question leading to an understanding of this
issue are as follows:
1. Is an immediate facility needed above all other concerns, i.e., operation and maintenance costs, environmental
impacts, etc?
The benefit of satellite facilities may outweigh the
negative aspect of the satellite facilities in that there
are potential benefits gained from reclaimed water,
immediate relief from the moratorium and control over our own facilities program which may be more important than the negative impacts of the facilities.
The question has been raised concerning the fact that the remainder of the City service area may be subsidizing a satellite facility at Lake Calavera Hills. Using the information in the Montgomery study (using table 10-7 and ignoring the fact that the average escalation attributed to the satellite O&M costs are 12.4% while those attributed to monthly service charges for the remainder of the City escalated at an average of only
3%), analysis of operation from 1980 to 1985 shows that the satellite plant creates an O&M defecit of $27,400. This is offset, however, by the decrease of flow through at least 2 major pump stations. Rough calculations, based on known operating costs for the Encina Joint System, indicates a potential savings, during the 1980 to 1985 period of approximately $25,000. It would
appear that the O&M costs for the satellite facility as compared to O&M for transmission to and treatment at the Encina Water Pollution Control facility are fairly even.
2. What impacts will satellite treatment plants have on financing of Encina, i.e., expansion, repay loans, etc?
April 27, 1979
Page 4
The Encina Phase I11 project is sufficiently along the way that it will probably proceed with State and Federal grants regardless of any action we take on a satellite facility program. However, it is imperative that we
adopt such policies as are necessary to assure State
and Federal agencies of our intent to subscribe to the
air and water quality programs that we have supported in
the past. This boils down to some form of growth
control. This type of control, however, should be on
a policy and discretionary action basis rather than on the
basis of limiting facilities with the resultant inter-
mittent use of moratoria as the timetable for completion
of facilities gets out of sync with growth demands.
There will be some impact on the financing program for
the Encina Phase I11 project in that if a reimbursement
program is adopted for the Lake Calavera Hills satellite
facility, then those developments that occur in that
area will be paying their connection fees into a fund to reimburse the developer for the construction of that facility. Those fees otherwise would have gone into the sewer construction fund which would be financing the Phase I11 Program. The net effect is a diminishment of the financial base for Phase I11 project: however, since we are on a moratorium we are not generating any additional revenues into the sewer construction fund: hence development in the Lake Calavera Hills area now will not have any impact on fees generated to the sewer consturction fund. If capacity was available at Encina, sewer connection fees would pay back Phase I11 or for construction of future capacity.
3. Whats the importance of the LCH treatment plant relative to the Area Wide Quality Management Plant as supported by City Council Resolution No. 5492?
The 208 plan, which was supported by Council, identifies a satellite treatment and reclamation facility in the Lake Calavera Hills area. The City Council indicated they would assist in the study and possible construction of the Lake Calavera Hills treatment plant. The facility is identified in the 208 plan as a 500,000 gallon per day plant as opposed to the 1.2 mgd plant proposed in
the Montgomery study. It's verified in the Lowry
study that the 208 plan indicates a 500,000 gallon
per day plant at this site because the consultant who
prepared that element of the 208 plan was aware of the
developers proposal to the City and not because 500,000
gallons per day was a suggested limitation factor.
4. What effect will the expansion of Encina (proposed to
be completed January, 1982) have on the feasibility of satellite plants?
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Based on projected construction schedule, the Lake Calavera Hills satellite plant will be operating approx- imately two years prior to Encina Phase I11 expansion. Therefore approving the satellite plant will allow continuation of growth over a longer period of time, not only in the basin, but also City-wide if existing units are switched to the satellite plant.
facility without water reclamation? 5. Is the City willing to consider satellite treatment
The Montgomery study strongly recommends that a treatment plant not be considered without water re- clamation. Staff agrees, the problem is with the guarantee of the use of the water and the costs of distribution. It may require City participation,
both in funding and using the water to make such
guarantees.
6. What effect will satellite plants have on the expansion of Encina?
In the past, when the regional facility at Encina was the only source of sewage treatment, the posture assumed by the City of Carlsbad was one to insure that we had sufficient capacity and that any expansion project
included some additional capacity for the City of Carlsbad.
Existence of satellite plants will probably have a
significant impact on our posture with regards to future expansion at Encina in that the need for expansion will
not occur at the accelerated schedule that it could if satellite facilities were not in existence. Since
Council policy in the operations, expansion and management
of the Encina facilities appears to be one of insuring that we were able to control our own destiny rather than
being subjected to the whims or needs of outside agencies, it would appear that a satellite treatment program, under
the singular control of the City, more closely fits in
with this policy.
Without the extra treatment capacity of satellite plants,
the phase I11 capacity of Encina will be reached by the year
be reached by the year 2840. This is based on series IV
population projections. 13qO
1997-88 l9-94. With the proposed LCH plant, phase I11 capacity will
B. Is water reclamation at the satellite treatment facility
desirable?
Water may be reclaimed at Encina as well as satellite
plant. The 208 plan, identified the potential for
reclaiming up to 5 million gallons per day of water
from the Encina facility. It would, however, be
necessary to transport and pump the reclaimed water
from Encina up into areas where it could be functionally used. The only exceptions to this would be that if industrial development in the area of Sargent Industries and Burroughs, etc., were to accommodate types of
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Page 6
industry that could use water reclaimed as water part of their process, then those pumping charges would
be minimized, and continuation of agriculture in the
immediate area.
Subject to confirmation or rebuttal that may be forth-
coming from the areawide satellite master p1.i.n study,
the area that would be served with reclaimed water
from the Encina site could also be served with reclaimed
water obtained from satellite facilities in the area of
El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Road. Satellite
facilities would have an economic edge over Encina in
water reclamation in that it would not be necessary to provide the distribution system to transport the volumetric equivalent of the reclaimed water from the satellite locations to Encina and also it could serve the downstream agricultural areas by gravity rather than by pump pressure. Nevertheless, there are
certain questions to be answered to make this finding.
The Office of the Governor of the State of California has established a sub-office of water reclamation. It is the established policy of the Governor that water reclamation is a viable and desirable project. Reuse
of water would reduce the need of the costly pumping and piping systems now required to bring water into the Southern California area from Central and Northern California.
1. What are the impacts on implementing the Area Wide Water Quality Management Plan?
Areawide Water Quality Management Plan has many ramifications which involve treatment, reclamation, the use of groundwaters, the use of storm drain waters and many other aspects. Suffice is to say that the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan has identified satellite treatment and reclamation as a viable and desirable goal and has identified several potential sites recommended for immediate
implementation in the City of Carlsbad. One of the sites. is located in the Lake Calavera Hills area.
2. Are the higher costs of reclaimed water as in- dicated in the Montgomery study overcome by the
demand for water?
Imported water costs have, over the last three or
four years, alomst doubled in costs. As Federal
power contracts are renegotiated in the 1980's,
it has been estimated that the cost of imported
April 27, 1979
Page 7
potable water will double. Since most of that increased
cost is a result of increased costs of power for trans-
porting and treating imported water then the judicious
siting and use of satellite treatment facilities to
minimize the impact of power on reclaiming water for
agricultural and landscaped areas is certainly worthwhile.
3. Why not reclaim water at Encina instead of satellite
reclamation plants?
The basic problem faced by reclaiming water at Encina
is that the Encina plant is at approximately sea level
whereas most agricultural use and most developmental
areas remaining in the City of Carlsbad are in the
areas where land elevation is approximately 200 to 300
feet. It would, therefore, become necessary to pump the total volume of reclaimed water from Encina through
large pipelines back to the area of potential use. This piping system and the pumping costs attendant thereto would take away any economic edge that reclaimed water would have over the cost of imported water. To
summarize, a primary advantage of satellite reclamation
is that it provides for wastewater treatment with the
potential of reclamation in those areas where reuse is
feasible.
4. When should reclamation he put into effect, i.e,
immediately, when demanded, when percolation beds are
full?
Reclamation should be put into effect as soon as there
is a market for the reclaimed water. Whether that
market be far agricultural use, open space irrigation, landscaping irrigation or any other acceptable Type I
use. Reclamation will not succeed unless there is a market for the product. -. c; What uses are acceptable for reclaimed water, agriculture,
public landscaped areas, private landscaped areas?
Any water use which would have been brought to fruition whether reclaimed water was available or not is an
acceptable use, subject to the approval of other
interested agencies.
6. Is the City willing to set aside agricultural lands for reclamation usage (Montgomery study suggests 400 acres)?
It is entirely possible that adequate demand for
reclaimed water can be supplied by development as it
occurs in the proposed Lake Calavera Hills area and
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7.
8.
9.
10.
that no large scale agricultural land need be purchased
or specifically reserved. That is not to say that
agriculture should not be encouraged, but it is not
necessary for the economic survival of the reclamation
program.
Who should guarantee usage of the reclaimed water, i.e.,
City property owners, applicants, etc?
For control the City or a water agency should guarantee
the usage. We in turn should address that by having long-term agreements with those parties who would use reclaimed water whereby they would, for a reduced price
for the water, be willing to bear the responsibility and the cost of supplying transmission, storage and distribution facilities.
Is the additional cost of dual water systems in new
subdivisions met by demand of water?
The additional costs of including dual water system
when compared with the total costs of the development
of the subdivision would be relatively minor as opposed
to the additional costs met by the delay of development of these areas, the increased interest rates on the loans and the increased escalation costs of construction.
This is not offered to depart or indicate non-support
of a growth management system - quite the opposite.
It is, however, to show that there are economic con- siderations in developing dual water systems sooner rather than later.
Should all new subdivisions within this drainage basin
be required to put in dual water systems?
If a water reclamation program is to be implemented it is staff's opinion that dual water systems be mandated at this time.
Is the placing of salt from the effluent into ground
water basins acceptable?
The use of reclaimed water to recharge existing ground
water basins will, in almost every known case, improve
the quality of the groundwater by lowering its average
TDS "salt" content. Many crops currently grown in this
area are tolerant of high TDS. Such a common crop is tomatoes. Therefore, by improving the quality of groundwater we would be encouraging the use of this water for irrigation of such high TDS tolerant crops as tomatoes.
April 27, 1979
Page 9
9.
11. Should the pumping out of water from the aquifer be
required, when?
Pumping out of water should be required as soon as there is a use for the reclaimed water.
12. Should industrial uses be permitted to hook up to a
satellite sewer plant such as discussed in the
Montgomery study?
No. Industrial facilities are generally fairly large users and they are much more prone to have "accidents" or "excursions" which would provide for sewage having
pesticides, poisons or heavy metals which could disrupt
the biological process. Such an excursion would have significantly more impact on a small satellite facility
that it would on a larger regional facility simply on
the basis of a ratio of the volume of the violating flow
versus the volume of the plant.
13. Should reclaimed water be sent to high volume uses, i.e., Burroughs, SDG&E?
In most instances it would be inappropriate. Burroughs requires the use of high quality water which they run through sand filters on their own site. SDGCE would probably find the use of reclaimed water considerably more expensive than the use of the salt water they now have for cooling. It is possible that certain industrial uses that would use reclaimed water as process water would be viable in this area; however, it is not known what those specific uses would be at this time, and we would have to respond to specific proposal.
14. Should currently serviced areas that are switched to a
satellite treatment plant also provide a use for reclaimed
water or should the City be responsible?
It has been proposed by staff that future development
using the satellite facility be required as a condition of approval to supply a use for reclaimed water of comparable volume to that which would be generated by the proposed development. If this policy is adopted by Council, then it would logically follow that any existing development that is administratively switched over to
the satellite facility would have to have a use for reclaimed water furnished by the City. The developer
of the Lake Calavera Hills area claims that he would
be able to use all reclaimed water in his proposed
proposed project that the satellite plant could produce.
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Page 10
15.
16.
17.
C. Does
Should the percolation beds be in drainage basin that
they will serve?
The existence of percolation beds are not the result of an administrative or a land use decision. They are the result of a geological formation. A more adequate way of phrasing the question would be, “can percolation beds, where they exist, be effectively incorporated into a satellite treatment and reclamation program. In the case of the Lake Calavera Hills project, staff beleives the answer to this question is yes.
Can the flow from a satellite treatment plant be split
to go to more than one percolation bed?
Yes it can. It will require additional piping and
perhaps pumping, but in the case of the Lake Calavera
Hills project, if the percolation beds included as part
of the project proposed are inadequate to fully handle
the flow from the plant, then flow from the plant can
be directed toward the percolation beds in the vicinity
of the Rancho Carlsbad Mobile Home Park. The percolation
beds near Rancho Carlsbad Mobile Home Park are not part of the current application ROW being considered by the
City.
Are additional percolation beds needed to give greater storage?
If development that takes advantage of satellite plant is approved with the conditions that it furnish a functional Type I use for reclaimed water, which is comparable to the flows that development would generate, then a second percolation bed would not be required.
the City need to implement growth management?
The proposed satellite treatment plant raises two basic
questions, along with many detailed questions, regarding the need for growth controls?
1. If the project is approved, will growth exceed CPO population projections, thus jeopardizing the acquisition of Federal and State subvention and grant monies?
The Comprehensive Planning Organization (CPO) develops
regional growth forecasts to be used in regional planning
programs such as the Regional Air Quality Strategy
(RAQS) and the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan
(208). These plans are then used by State and Federal agencies when reviewing grant applications. If the City takes an action inconsistent with the population
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2.
forecasts, these agencies may also consider the action
inconsistent with the overall plan. Grants and sub- ventions might then be frozen because of this in- consistency. Attached is a memorandum dated April 11,
1979, that discusses the regional growth forecasting
process and some possible implications. Some of those
implications lead to the next question.
If the project is approved, what measures should be
used to secure orderly development in the Lake Calavera
Hills drainage basin specifically and in the City as
a whole?
This question must first be put into perspective.
The proposed project does not in itself create the need
for growth management. The current building moratorium and proposed solution for this drainage basin has simply focussed attention on the need for such a program
that was first addressed in the General Plan back in
1974 (i.e., Public Facilities Management Program and Urban Land Reserve Program). Putting the question of reclamation aside, the proposed satellite treatment plant would do no more than put the Lake Calavera Hills drainage basin back to where it was prior to the moratorium.
There are additional controls on that land within the
drainage basin under the Calavera Hills Master Plan.
However, these additional contols only deal with sequence
of development linked to limited public improvements
(mainly on-site) and location of development tied to
four general phrases. No timing of development is provided.
One item that did arise out of the Calavera Hills Master Plan does relate directly to this question. That is, the need for a "Public Facility Fee" to cover the costs of public capital improvements needed to serve new development. In the development of said
fee, the following facts became apparent:
a. The General Plan identifies a "saturation" plan for approximately 200,000 people.
b. Using that information, the ultimate public
facility needs can be identified.
c. That information can then be used to identify
the costs of those facilities and new development
can be charged its proportionate share. (This
represents the current status in the City if the voters approve the proposed fee in June).
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D.
d. Using CPO'S population projections (approximately 1,000 du's per year), saturation will be reached
between 2037 and 2051).
As the "Public Facilities Fees" are collected with
building permits, priorities will have to be set
as to what facilities should be built first.
f. In addition, new development will have to be
limited to areas where minimum public facilities
are in place or programmed concurrently.
These last two statments are those indicators mentioned
earlier regarding when and where development should occur.
What should the specifics of the treatment plant be to meet
the desires of the City?
At a very minimum, secondary treatment of sewage is required. Additional treatment may be required depending upon the
quality of reclaimed water required by the use within the areas to be served. Studies to date indicate that extended aeration provides the most reliable and economic method of providing secondary effluent. The negative aspect of extended aeration is that it is land consumptive. Since, however, satellite facilities will be constructed for the most part in areas that are currently undeveloped, our primary requirement will be that a sufficient acreage of relatively inexpensive land is set aside to provide for the optimum size facility needed to serve the basins identified. The following questions on the specifics on
sewer treatment plants and processes are designed to provide Council with concise information for your policy review.
1. What is the proper site for satellite treatment plant?
The Montgomery study has extensive analysis on site
selection. Staff agrees with their recommendation that
3b is the best site.
2. What is the most effective treatment based on the size of the plant, costs, environmental impact, and type of treatment?
The most effective treatment in the undeveloped areas where satellite facilities would be constructed has been shown to be extended aereation facilities at
todays state of technological development.
3. What area should plant serve?
The plant should serve the area identified in the
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plant project report (Agua Hedionda drainage basin as
identified in the Montgomery study).
4. Should area be limited for the control of growth
management policies?
In staff's opinion the entire City should be subject
to uniform growth management policies.
5. Should currently sewered areas be included in the
service area?
There are serveral advantages to include currently
developed areas in the sewer service areas for satellite
facilities. Existing development would provide ready
source of flow for starting up a satellite plant and
providing adequate flows for effective operation. The second advantage is that capacity currently being used in the EWPCF could be reclaimed for areas that are not
subject to direct benefit by satellite treatment facilities.
6. What effects will plant size have on growth control?
A plant smaller than future demand will require City Council approval of expansion. At that time growth
policies could again be reviewed by City Council. A
larger plant places that review within a longer time
frame.
7. What will ultimate size of plant need to be?
Studies project the needs up to the year 2000 based on
Series IV population projections. Beyond that time
projections do not have sufficient accuracy to be
reliable. The General Plan indicates a larger population
for that area at saturation. However, the Genrral Plan is based on a gross density which could be modified by
development standards effective in the City at that time.
8. Should the plant have full backup systems based on total capacity?
A redundancy of certain of the mechanical parts of the
system is necessary to insure continual uninterrupted
operation of the facility should we have a malfunction
of a motor, a drive train, a pump, etc. Duplication of
the biological processes, however, is unnecessary. If
we constrain the use of satellite facilities to serve
residential uses only, then extended aeration is a highly backup up system. Biological processes are
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Page 14
functioning in amvient conditions and the moderate weather experienced in this coastal zone should not cause any concern in disruption of the biological
process. Not allowing industrial uses to service into satellite facilities will result in a lack of
biologically damaging materials being in the sewage.
Any minor amounts that would come in as a result of
dumping bottles of ammonia, or various other household
cleaning solutions when compared with the volume of
sewage generated and contained in the oxidation ponds
would result in negligible, if any, biological impact.
9. What is the most effective method to process and dispose
of sludge?
Slude when it has been thoroughly digested either by aerobic or anaerobic processes has had substantially all organic material removed. It comes from the digestion process as a liquid which has approximately 2% to 5% solid material in it. For purposes of economy of handling in transporting the sludge it becomes expedient to dewater. The dewatering process can be accommodated either by a centrifuge or a filter belt press or by putting the sludge into sludge drying beds. Since we are dealing with treatment facilities that will be located within the near proximity of residential development, sludge drying beds should generally be ruled out and a mechanical dewatering system should be required. Whether that be a centrifuge or a belt filter press will be a function of the design of the specific plant. The question of
the method of disposal of sludge is being studied now by a subcommittee of the Encina Joint Advisory Committee.
A secondary treatment plant produces approximately three times as much sludge as a primary treatment plant; therefore, this subject is of great concern to the JAC. Whether the Encina facility would in the future be structured to handle all the sludge from satellite plants or not and whether sludge would have to be disposed of via landfill operation or disposal at a class one dumpsite or whether it could be commercially saleable is a matter that is unable to be answered at this time. whatever the ultimate resolution of the problem,
however, the City would be responsible for the cost of disposing of sludge at any satellite facility.
10. Is fail safe for plan malfunction necessary?
In the context of this report a fail safe system for plant mal-function is a line to send raw sewage
to another treatment facility if the processing
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Page 15
mal-functions. A failsafe for plant malfunction is
not necessary. There are dozens of small sewer plants
in this area which operate without the benefit of a
backup system. If properly planned, designed and
constructed, such facilities are highly reliable and the incidence of problems is very small. There is no recorded case of a total malfunction of an extended
oxidation plant and to require a backup system for
such a contingency would definitely not be cost-
effective.
11. Is failsafe for excess effluent necessary, when?
In the context of this report, an effluent failsafe
system refers to disposing of treated disposable
water.
It has been proposed that a failsafe line would be
necessary at such time as the flows in the satellite
facility exceed 500,000 gallons per day. It has also
been proposed that the effluent failsafe line be
constructed now so as to insure the most economical
and expeditious construction of the facility so that
it would be there when necessary. Since we are in
the process of conducting a satellite plant master
plan study, staff suggests that no definite plans
for the effluent failsafe line be settled until the findings of the satellite master plan are available and are accepted by the Council. The reason for this would be that it may be possible to combine effluent failsafe disposal lines minimizing the environmental impact of the construction and the economic impact of multiple, large capacity lines to the ocean outfall.
12. Can one failsafe line shunt both raw sewage and dis-
posable effluent?
It would require a complicated series of valves and
line would go through the treatment plant and would receive the necessary treatment prior to disposal in the ocean. Treated effluent, on the other hand,
should be able to bypass the plant directly into the ocean outfall thus eliminating an unnecessary
consumption of plant capacity. If it is found
that the failsafe line should be constructed as part of the initial project then obviously the developer would have to construct it. If it is delayed, subject
to future Council action, the failsafe line would be
constructed either by the City or as a condition of
some future development.
I bypasses to insure that raw sewage flowing through the
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Page 16
13. What effects will a failsafe line have on desire to
provide water reclamation?
As long as there is a method of disposing of reclaimed
effluent other than for use as irrigation there will
be pressure to increase flows through the satellite facility using the effluent failsafe line for disposal rather than developing a functional market for reclaimed water.
14. Does the failsafe system have a cost/benefit ratio that would make it desirable to go ahead with it at
this time?
It is entirely possible that sufficient long-term use of reclaimed water can be generated as development occurs such taht the failsafe line may never need to be used as
an effluent disposal system; however, if the line is
in fact required as a condition of approval of the project by the Regional Water Quality Control Board, then it
must be taken in the context of not the line itself,
but as part of the cost/benefit ratio of the entire
project .
15. Can Encina handle shunted effluent, can City negotiate for such treatment?
Such shunting of effluent would be on a temporary basis
and could be handled by Encina even if its operating at
maximum. It may require emergency measures, but the frequency of such shunting would be so low that these
would have little impact on the plant or environment-
The JAC would be willing to accept this responsibility because most if not all member agencies will have satellite treatment plants in the future.
16. Should City rely totally on rec-lamation for effluent
disposal, what happens if water can't be used or
guaranteed?
The proposed percolation bed is sufficient to store
94 months supply of reclaimed water when the plant
is operating at the design capacity of 1.2 mgd. This storage capacity is contingent upon the con- struction of a subterranean barrier which would prevent the escape of water in the aquifer down towards the Buena Vista Creek. Should this barrier not be constructed, the overflow of the basin would escape through the alluvial and sandstone deposits reaching the groundwater in the vicinity of Buena Vista Creek.
While there are contradictory opinions involved,
the information submitted by the developer on the basis
I- April 27, 1979
Page 17
of a hydrogeologic study performed at his direction
indicates that the aquifer is sufficient to handle
approximately 500,000 gallons a day on a year-round
basis without surfacing except in the most extreme
wet periods of the year. If the policy position is
accepted and implemented that new developments
taking advantage of the satellite plant capacity
cannot proceed with development unless, as a condition
of their development, they also furnish a source for
use of reclaimed water in conformance with City
policies, then staff believes that the question of
the functional use of the water is mitigated.
17. What are the current EDU figures for the City, (EIR indicates 260, Encina presently 253)?
City Ordinance indicates that the value or flow
volume associated with an EDU shall be established
by resolution from time to time. The most recent
action of the City Council was to indicate their
acceptance of a flow rate of 253 gallons per EDU
per day.
18. Should an odor easement be absolute or give some flexibility?
Should be absolute. Staff supports the 100 yds as
recommended in the Montgomery study. The 100 yds
are measured from the outer edge of service road that surrounds the operational part of the plant
site to the edge of the nearest habitable building
area.
E. The following questions are regarding administrative and
financial considerations that need not be answered at this
time, but are submitted to you as background information.
1. When to permit development to procede in relation to
construction of plant?
The City's primary purpose should be to protect the
buying pubic and prevent the situation from occuring where they might make arrangements to purchase a home and would not be able to take possession of that home because the satellite treatment plant was not yet accepted for operation. If the developer were allowed to commence construction of his dwelling units with
the understanding that they would not be cleared for sale or would not even be allowed to be offered for sale until such time as the satellite treatment plant
was accepted for City operation, this would protect
the public.
*I
April 27, 1979 Page 18
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Should City adopt construction fee before plants operable?
In staff's opinion this would be highly desirable.
Should City prohibit water softners in service area?
The "self-regeneration" type of softners should be prohibited because they add sodium to the water. This may require amendments to the City Code.
Who should operate plant?
- City
- Private - Other Agency
- JAC
The City, as the sewering agency in this area, should be
responsible for the operation of the plant. There are a couple options as to how this can be handled: either contracting with the JAC operators, contracting with a private operator subject to City Control, or the City could operate the plant.
Does the City have a legal or moral responsibility to
provide sewer service if the City allows the applicant
to construct the plant?
None as long as both parties to the agreement, the
developer and the City, understand and accept all of
the conditions. If it is understood that the City may
adopt growth management and the developer chooses to go ahead with the express understanding that the City is accepting no responsibility for approving subsequent development plans, then there is no moral or legal responsibility.
Should cost recovery of operation and maintenance be over entire City or just those using plant?
While it is technically and administratively impossible to establish different zones within the City each zone having a different sewer service fee to generate the funds necessary to operate facilities, it is staff's opinion that when the Encina Phase I11 project becomes a secondary treatment plant, then that sewer service charge should be the same City-wide. While it may be held that there are certain inequities in the costs of operating a regional treatment facility, that same inequity exists now in that it is more expensive on an
operations and maintenance basis to operate the trans- mission and pumping facilities to provide sewer service
April 27, 1979
Page 19
to certain of the easternly and northerly sections of town than it is to those areas in the immediate vicinity of the Encina facility. Staff would not recommend that we change the policy we have been operating under for several years. Other services such as police, fire
and library are paid for on a uniform basis throughout the community.
7. If the City Council decides to switch units from Encina to the satellite treatment plant, should those units pay a higher satellite rate?
Assuming that differential rates are established fer an interium period until Encina becomes a secondary treatment plant, it is not recommended that we adopt higher sewer service charges for those facilities which are switched from Encina to the satellite plant. Those higher operations and maintenance costs can be recovered by higher monthly billing rates to those facilities that would be allowed to develop by reason of capacity reclaimed at Encina when the switch-over
occurs.
8. How will capital funds be provided?
- Initial Construction - Later construction of failsafe, reclamation, enlargement - Operating and Maintenance - replacement
Initial construction costs will be financed by the
developer., Later construction of failsafe, reclamation or enlargement and, for that matter reimbursement funds
for oversizing to the developer, could be collected by
the establishment of EDU capacity charges to be collected at the time of the issuance of the sewer permits.
Operations and maintenance expenses could be collected via the monthly sewer service charges. This monthly sewer service charge could also be expanded to include
the replacement costs of the facilities. Sufficient
precedent has been established in this area by the
requirement of the EPA of certain grant receipients to
collect 1/30 of ca.pita1 recovery costs of total
facilities each year as part of the sewer service
charges.
9. How will reimbursement be made to the applicant if the agreement requires his financing?
This should be done by requiring a special reimbursement fee for each hook-up to the satellite plant based on their fair share.
I. April 27, 1979
Page 20
10. If the City enters into a financial agreement with the developer of the treatment facility, should the
City be responsible to reimburse the developer for the entire facility or just the excess capacity over the developers needs?
It is staff's opinion that reimbursement shall cover only the excess capacity over the developers needs.
11. How will a growth control program effect a reimbursement agreement?
A growth control program will establish a uniform reimbursement rate.
111. Conclusion and Recommendations
A. Is a satellite treatment facility desirable?
Staff recommends that a satellite treatment plant be constructed to serve the northeast section of the
City as shown in the Montgomery Report study area.
B. Is water reclamation at the satellite treatment
facility desirable?
Staff recommends that water reclamation be an integral
part of the treatment facility and be constructed concurrently with the treatment facility.
C. Does the City need to implement a growth management program?
Staff recommends that a growth management program be
adopted prior to accepting applications for development
permits in the service area. However, building permits may be issued to any project that presently have final
maps or tentative maps that need only sewer availability
prior to finaling.
D. What should the specifics of the treatment plant be
to meet the desires of the City?
Staff recommends that the plant and the site as proposed
applicant be approved except that pumps and wells
necessary to reclaim water from the percolation beds
be constructed concurrently with the plant.
'by the Montgomery study or as applied for by the
The disposable effluent failsafe line to be built
when the plants capacity reaches 0.5 mgd.
..
’.
April 27, 1979 Page 21
E. Administrative and financial matters
Staff recommends that these matters not be part of
the approvals of the treatment plant, but that
all administrative arrangements, financial agreements
be resolved to the satisfaction of the City Council prior to the City accepting construction plans for
the plant.
Attachments
Hopulation Projection Report EIR Matrix
BP/ar
4/27/79
-1 ,
..
DATE :
TO :
FROM :
SUBJECT:
PEMORANDUM
April 11, 1979
James Hagaman, Planning Director
Mike Zander, Associate Planner
mGIONAL GROWTH FORECASTS
There has been much discussion lately on the population
forecasts done by the Comprehensive Planning Organization
(CPO). Because of the growing importance of this subject,
I thought it would be helpful to describe how the forecasts are done, the history of the forecasts, and some thoughts on the future of the forecasts and what they mean to the City of Carlsbad-
IaTHODOLOGY
Basically, the population forecasts are done in two steps.
First of all, CPO uses a computer model to forecast the population for the entire region. This model uses infor- mation such as birthrates, in-and out-migration, and employ-
ment to develop the forecasts- The past track record of these regional forecasts has been pretty good and most of the various agencies in the County do not question them.
Then, once the regional forecasts are completed, CPO uses another model to "allocate" this total growth to separate sub-areas of the County, including Carlsbad. This "allocation"
is based on different variables than is the regional forecast.
One of the major variables used by Series IV in the local
allocation was projected sewer service availability, That is, a guess as to what areas would be sewered in 1985 and 1995. Ron Beckman and I provided this information for the
Series IV projections, We used our best judgement but it should be recognized that we were still guessing.
I have attached a brief article from the AIP Local News that further describes the overall process.
HISTORY
In 1977, CPO developed what they call Series IV Regional
Growth Forecasts. As the "Series IV" implies, there have
been three previous series of forecasts. but they weren't used to the same extent as Series IV.
MEMORANDUM - JAMES HAGAMAN
APRIL 11, 1979
PAGE 2
CPO felt it apprapriate to ask all of its member agencies
to certify the Series IV forecasts for use in local and
regional planning programs.
forecasts, we felt the projected number of dwelling units
was fairly accurate but disagreed with the projected average
household population.
In the City's analysis of the
I have attached an analysis that was submitted to the Council
from Public Works. I have also attached a copy of City
Council Resolution No. 5237, approving a modified Series IV
population for the Carlsbad General Plan area,
One of the biggest concerns that staff raised during their
review had to do with the possibility of the forecasts
becoming guotas rather than projections for planning purposes.
It's not that quotas may someday be desirable or necessary,
it's that the forecasts were not developed as nor intended
to be quotas.
The only real constraints on the forecasts were total regional population, General Plan densities, and projected sewer-service -
availability, If adequate quotas were to be developed,''
additional land use, environmental, social and economic
constraints would have to be taken into consideration.
Another important fact to keep in mind when considering Series IV was noted in Resolution No. 5237- That is, Series IV did
not take into account the effects of the City's sewer moratorium, the Coastal Act, or alternate sewer systems (i.e., satellite treatment plants).
FUTURE
CPO staff is now working with us to develop Series V forecasts. Ron Beckman and I again have provided certain assumptions
regarding future sewer service areas, The first major
decision that had to be made was this: If we used constraint
in our assumptions and tried to be realistic, and other
agencies took a looser attitude and projected greater sewer
availability than was possible, then they would receive a
higher proportion of the total allocation. If one recognizes
then that the results of the forecasts are only predictions, there is no problem.
However, if the predictions came to be used as quotas by
certain agencies, there could be problems.
Obviously the predictions were wrong.
.-
0. MEMORANDUM - JR-dS HAGAMAN
.I , APRIL 11, 1979
PAGE 3
For example, if the projections were used for sewer plant
sizing, the agencies with high allocations would oversize their sewer plant capacity. Whereas, agencies with low allocations would undersize theirs. Without further growth
management programs then to limit growth, one can easily see the problems that could arise.
If, in turn, we made high assumptions, and everyone else
made high assumptions, they would balance out and reasonable allocations would be made: This would also happen if every- body made realistic assumptions.
last approach when we developed our assumptions. Hopefully, now, every other agency will stay as realistic as we were.
Ron and I decided on this
Another problem still needs to be addressed.
do become used as quotas, or if actual quotas are developed, how is development to be dispersed within the City?
If the projections .
For example, Series IV estimated approximately one thousand
(1,000) dwelling units per year would be built. If we then allocate that number to the four quadrants of the City identified in the General Plan, you get two hundred fifty
-. (250) dwelling units per quadrant per year. -
This would be an interesting situation when you consider
Calavera Hills Master Plan projects 250-300 dwelling units
per year. the northeast quadrant of the City. What about the other projects in that quadrant?
That would account for all of the allocation for
Also, consider the southeast quadrant. Leucadia County Water District is in the process of releasing about 2,600 sewer
permits to people on their waiting list who are ready to build.
If all of those units were built in one year, it would be equivalent to about ten years worth of allocation.
RECOMMENDATION
I think that staff's concerns are becoming a reality. If the
City is going to be forced into a situation of using quotas,
I would strongly recommend that we develop those quotas based on sound planning issues.
those quotas, especially if the quotas are developed as
projections, the City may lose control of planning future growth.
X would suggest that this memo be released to the Planning Commission and City Council for their consideration.
solicit further guidance from the Council before certification
of the Series V projections.
If we let other agencies develop
We should
MZ/ar Attachments
, -. -. -;,
Issue Number Tko of 1978/1979.. . . .October/Xovember
MEETING
NOVEMBER MEETING SAN DIEGO SECTION-AIP ..
On Tuesday, November 14, 1978, Jerry Trimble will speak to the AIP section at a brown bag lunchtime meeting to be held in the CPO large con- ference room. As director of the CCDC. Mr. Trimble will el- aborate on the Centre City development plans. Bring
your lunch and your questions and we will see you there.
Come to: Suite 524, Security Pacific Plaza, 1200 Third Ave.
TENT AT I VE KEET INS-
DECEMBER
A site for the December sec- tion meeting is being sought for a program about the gas- lamp area. Hopefully, an- other brown bag style lunch meeting can be held somewhere in the gaslamp district ap- proximztely one month after November's meeting.
SECTION BOARD MEETS REGULARLY
Bimonthly meetings of the AIP section board are held down- town at the Backstage Restaur- ant at nmn on the first and third Fridays of each month. These are open events and the board will be happy to have
you attend. To confirm that the meeting will be held and to assure an adequately large table, please call Greg Thomp- son before you show up.
FEATURE
GROWTH FORECASTING IN THE - SAN DIEGO REGION '
By: Bill Barnberg-.
How much capacity must be added to San Diego's sewage treatnent'plant? How costly will it be to meet the 1983 . federal air quality standards? .How many new schools will be required in Mira Mesa? An- swering these questions, and most others that planners- deal with, requires reliable forecasts of population, housing and many other fac- tors. That is why consider- able effort and funds have been directed at preparing forecasts of growth and de- velopment for. the San Diego region and its comnunities.
Like most aspects of planning, forecasting is an evolutionary process. Forecasts represent a "snapshot" of the future as
it looks at a particular point in time, and must be modified as attitudes, plans, policies, technology and other factors change.
A cooperative effort involv- ing the-Comprehensive Plan- ning Organization and its member agencies is currently underway to prepare a set of updated forecasts. The re- sul t of this effort, refer- red to as the Series V Re- gional Growth Forecasts, will be forecasts of popu- la t i on, hou si ng , employment and land use for virtually -
any geographic area within San Diego County including comnunity planning areas, school districts, hydrologic subunits. cities and, of course, census tracts and other statistical areas.
As the designati'on "Series V" implies, there have been four previous series of forecasts in recent years. The Series IV forecast, pub- lished in October 1977, was an attempt to identify the most like1 growth patterns
policies of the region's local governments. The Series IV forecasts were ap- proved by the CPO Board of Directors, the County Board of Supervisors, and City Councils of each city in the region, and were also ap- proved by the Governor's Office of Planning and Rea search for use'by all state agencies.
It was clear from the dis- cussion surrounding the development and adpption of Series IV that an update would be required within two years, to reflect the em- * erging City of San Diego and County Growth Management Plans, the adopted Coastal Plan, and substantial changes to a number of city general plans. Also contributing to the need for an updated forecast was the passage of Proposition 13, which is likely to result in severely limiting the ability of locz'l jurisdictions to finance the capital facilities required
by a growing population.
The methodology used to pre- pare the Series V forecasts involves a combination of computer model s , data files , transportation, land use and public facilities plans and most importantly, technical staffs and public officials to review. interpret. analyze ~ and evaluate the results. The
+ which wou d result from the
&
Y i .- .
forecasts are prepared using a step-down process which
growth and then allocates the total to the variouf cornunities throughout the region. The comunity level forecasts are, in turn, at- located to even smaller geo- graphic areas--92 acre grid cells.
There are three computer models used, each dealing with a difFerent level of geographic detail : DEFH78, PLUM and SOAP. OEFM78 (Demo-
graphic and Economic Fore- casting Model) is an econo- metric model that forecasts
. total regional growth based on national and state econo- mic and demographic condi- tions and local factors such as fertility. mortality and the numerous variables which account for migration. OEFM78 is essentially a combination economic, demographic, housing market and labor market model. PLUM (Projective Land Use Model) uses transportation and land use policies, industrial develqpment, publ ic facility availability and the avail- ability of vacant land to allocate total regional growth to comunities. SOAP (System for Overlaying Acti- vity Polygons) distributes the comnuni ty forecasts to 92 acre grid cells, based on the location of develop- able vacant land, public facilities. planned densi- ties, and redevelopment poIicies. Variations .of each of these madels were used in the preparation of the Series IV forecasts.
While the technical pro- cedures to be used are fairly clear cut, the policies upon which the forecasts will be based are not. A fundamental policy issue is whether the San Oiego region will continue to accomnodate the large num- ber of people who are moving here (approx ina tely 30,000
to 40.000 net migration each
policies to reduce migration. This question is not new to this region. In 1972, the
-- ’ first forecasts total regional
.
’ year), or will implement
Regional Goals Subcmi ttee on Growth and the Economy narrowly approved a resolu- tion to develop growth 1 imi ting pol icies for the region. A1 though the resolu- tion was later rejected by
the CPO Board of Directors, the issue was not foraotten. In 1974, the Reqional-Growth - Pol icy- assessed the economic, fiscal, environ- mental and legal implications of regional growth 1 imi ting policies. The study con- cluded that such policies, for which there was no pre- cedent in this country, could have undesirable econo- ‘ rnic and social impacts. How- ever, the serious environ- mental and fiscal impacts caused by growth were recog- nized, leading to the recom- mendation that the region’s. growth pol icy “should focus on growth management and not growth limitation.” The pas- sage of Proposition 13 ‘and. the continued threat that growth poses to our environ- ment have resuited in re-
newed interest in growth lim- itation. Can policies be developed whicti will effec- tively 1 imi t growth without causing unacceptable social and economic problems such as high unemployment and skyrocketing housing prices? On the other hand, can this region accomnodate almost 1 million additional people over the next two decades without disastrously over- burdening our environment and fiscal capacities? Ob- viously, there are no easy answers to these questions, and the Series V forecasts will not resolve them. But they cannot be ignored.
Equally as important as the number of people the region will have to accmnodate is where. within the region. the newcomers will locate. Over the past several years.
a number of jurisdictions have instituted pol.icies-- . . sometimes. but not always. referred to as “Growth . Management Plans”- -which have significantly limited growth .
in certain areas. The limited property taxes which accrue to a jurisdiction as a result’ of proposition 13 will alniost certainly create additional
.
.
;esistance to growth in many cmmunities. Even if. the costs of capital facilities are shifted to developers (as is the trend in many juris- dictions), operating and main- tenance costs of providing publ ic services are 1 ikely to exceed the revenue generated by a 1% property tax, The result may be a reluctance to accept future growth. One of the challenges of preparing the Series V Forecasts is at- tempting to identify an equit- able and efficient allocation of future growth. For this reason, the forecasting process will involve the planning staffs and public officials from all of the region’s jurisdictions,
The Series Y Forecast results are scheduled to be cmpleted, . at least in preliminary forn, during the first quarter of 1979. After review by the local jurisdictions and any necessary revisions, the forecasts will. be submitted . - to each city counci1,’the County Board of Supervisors and th2 CPO Board=of Directors for adoption. ~
. .
Kr. Bambercer Is a senlor planner with the CFO and uo&
closely ulth the re$onal
forecasting pmcess.
4PA Local News is published on a monthly. (hopefully) basis by the jan Oiego Section o’f the APA. Subscriptions for non-members are available for 55.00 annually and are free to Embers. Checks and money or- ders for this or other pur-
poses should be payable to
“APA San Diego Section.”
Loments. articles and letters can be sent to the following address :
APA, San Die90 Section
Post Oftice 6ox 2369 San Oiego. CA 92112
This address is also u’sable
for reservations and other events connected with the APP.
Editor: Arnold Torma
Staff: Larry Piper 236-5343
236-5377 .._
-
c I .. .- 1- CITY OF CARLSBAD ' .
- -e .. --%; -
-4
.. AGENbh BILL NO-
.. .. r*
. C, Ate- October &?, 'I 977 .- . DATE: -- .. .. DEPARTHENT: Pub 1 i c Works .. -1 -: c, .. Mgr; -
,MOOI FI ED SERJ ES IV POPULATION FORECASTS FOZ THE c ITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR *us Subjec't:
tN THE AREAkf I DE W4TER QUALITY bMNAGEMENT PLAN' 8 OTHER PLfiNNING NEEDS* . . . .. 5, *. __ . .> .. I- .- -
c . . - -:- r.. =.
.. ..
..... -- .- -- . .- *. . -. .- -_ ..
L .- .. - :- . . -. .. .. .. .. .. ..
" . I.
.. Statement of. the' 'Hatter - . *. * *. . . Ok*!h$. 17, 1977, City staff 'and CPO. presented to the Carisbad City Counci I the .- .
. process involved.in developing a set of. populatjon forcxasts referred to as .- - .
' . 'She Series IV Forecasts- . Thsse forecasts'are ini-ended t6 be used as' a gsnanl .'
. . guide in the Areawide.Water Quality Fbnagem6nt Plan (2081, Air Quality Main-
*-enance Plan, Clearinghouse Review, and ofher regions.) and local -planning work- After City staff review of -the revised Series- fV Forecasts, staff requested
..
-. - ..
. . CPO to make additional revisions taking into consideration neb4 data that had --
. . recently becom.-avai la61e- CPO: has responded to our request and has 'resolved -
.-
,-. . major 'issues' wi$h the except'ion of future household sizes which defemins
forecasts planned .by CP,O within-'the next 3.~10 years-,. In- the interim, the . .
kopulation forecasts have-.been 'stated in a .range To. faci I itate agremmt -1 on
Staff also notes .That' the presed- revised Series IV Forecasts dd.not take; into-
*effects on popu1ation:of alternate approved saw- systems within the community,
._ . . actua'l population- * This issue wi I I be resolved as part of 'future' papulation . . 9
- -- . .- .-
-'. - .- a specific household size:: .. .. ... .. .. .. .. -. : ... .. -:.. .- . .. I.
-. .* M
.. - -
... consideration The present sewer moraf-brium,. effects qf 'the CkasSaf $$k-f or 'the -- - - - .. -
~ -- -. ... _- L . 8- .
, - -. -. .... .. -_
--
.. -. ... . .- . --
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8- .-. .. . Exhibits. 1
.I .- .
.......
.. -
;* -. .- .. . . _. - - -..:-
........ . ........ -. .... .- .. - e- - .- . ...
: -*- I-- &' letter &ted O&ob& 5, 1977- -- -
.- 2. . SSi-aff report dated September 29, 1'977 .. - ..
.*
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......... . --- .. . - -- .. -_ - - - --
.. -. -. - .- .. . . 3. .ResoIution No, ,. ..
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., - .: -. .- . -_ ..
.. -- Rxanrnsnda-ii on .. .. .. - -- .: - !'f Counci I concurs, they should'adopt Resolution &!o- Spproving the -.
*- . -therein, -- revised Series I\! Populai-fon Forecasts with the qual if.ications cant-ained
.. ... - .- -. - I.
- -.
.. ..
. : - -- .- .. .. - -- -. -. . .. .. ..
-
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.. 5,'
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Public Morks Administrator. -. TO:
FROM: Project Consultant
..
I.
-.
..
DATE: .- Septembkr' 29,- 1977
SUBJECT: Series IV Forecasts ..
.. .. -- .. ..
CPO-has revised the Series. IV forecasis as per our request. of September 12: 1977. The new forecasts for our General Plan Area are: -
1975
7,240
. POP.. 19.700 ' . 2-72 . D-U. " I
1985
17,268
. 2.28. 39,371
1995 29,160 2119
63,860
.. After lengthy discussion with CPO and extensive analysis, I fee3 that the forecasts for dsqelling units are as adequate as possible considering ex-
isting data, occupied dwelling units per year. All data at this time verifies an ap- proximate 1,000 unit per year increase. \hen applying a 7% to €G vacancy factor, this means the construction of approximately 1,100 units per year.
White agreeing with the dwe'lling unit forecasts. I do question 'the house- hold factor used to arrive at the forecast population. CPO estimaTes a drop in household size from our 2.72 level .in 1975 (Special Census-data) to 2-28 in 1985. *
family size trend as part of the reason for the dropping household size. A1 though national and state estimates verify this trend toward smaller households, the drop to 2.28 in 1985 might be ov2rstating the issue.
CPO estimates the household size for-the entire San Diego region dl1 be 2.5 in 1985. \.)hen applying 2.5 to the 1385 dwelling unit forecast of . 17,268, the forecast population increases 3,799 to 43,170. The popula- tion increase is substantial and the discrepancy cannot be overlooked.
From 1975 to 1985 the forecasts indicate an increase of 1,002
#
CPO sites th'e increasing divorce rate and decreased
..
To arrive at an acceptable household size would require considerable time, and even then future factors affecting it may change, 'In summary, I be- lieve our course of action regarding adoption of 'the Series IV forecasts
. should be: --
1.
2. 3.
Approve a range of population due to the household factor discrep- sncy; -.
State as part of our resolution our approval for two years only; and Request a forecast revision at 'Least every two years,
.. .-
.
'U \. '. GJ- J -. YU,." Mject Consul ti.
1.0 . .
.. 'JS:veb
Attachment.
4J A ,- L
t
... 0. - .. . _._ ..
. '. . POPULATION RANGE GIVE14 VARIOUS HOUSEHOLD FACTORS
J 975
7,240 2.72 .
1.9,700
--. 1985 ... - 1995' ._c_
D-UL
POP. . * HH.
1
17,268 29 ,160
2.28-2.66 2.19-2.60 . 39,371 -45,932 63,860-75,316
i
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.. ..... - .. ._ ..
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.. _. ._ .. ..
.- .. :- * ... :. . ..
. .- ..
\ ...
-. ..
..
... .. ~.
..
..
8 .G99
... .*
.~ .. .-
..
-. .. e.
.. -_ ..
TOTAL .POPULATION. AT END OF 1977 . .-
.. Total' D.U. Completed* .. .
.. ...
0.
.. ..
' .
.' 1975 (4/1/75 through 12/31/75)
. . ; 828 -. ..
.*
. 1976 .
._. 848 ..... .. ..
-. ..... . . .- ..- .
... ... .. _- - ....... .. - _11.,445- ... . -
. .. 1; 11,445 - 7%' (vacancy rate) = .10,647. (occupied)
..... Assuming the completion of 400 units through the end of 1977, ..
. ~
..
. '; 1977 (1/1/77 through 8/31/77) .. ..
..... ..
- '.; . . :. . .. -
..
.. ..
--
.. .L. .- .. -. .-
.. .- .. .. .. -. ..
-. .- .. ..
.*. -_ ... .. .. -.. - -. . . ..': 10,647 x 2-66. (per household) = 28,321 (population) ..
..
.... .. .. -.. _.
,. -
.. . the total population should be between 8 29,000 to 30,000 people-
...
_- *As per 1975 Special Census and Building Departmeht records-
*: -.
.. - -.
.. -- ..- \.
1. 4
-1.
r: .
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a
9
10
.11.
12
13
- 14
15
1C
3.9
1E
. 1s
2c
21
22
. 22
24
2E
26
29
2E
.. ..
. --
.r
RESOLUTION NO. 5237
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF TFE CITY OF
CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING MODIFIED SERIES IV POPULATION
FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE
AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND
OTHER REG I ONAL AND LOCAL PLANN 1 NG NEEDS
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the Comprehensive Planning
Organization to update population forecasts for the San Diego region using
available 1975 census information and City.cf Carlsbad staff input; and
WHEREAS, the Series IV Population Forecasts may provide a key to the
planning of future sewage collection and treatment facilities as a component
of the Areawi.de Water Quality Management Plan being prepared by ihe Cornpro-
hensive Planning Organization with the assistance of local agencies and the
Air Quality Maintenance Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive Planning
’Organization and the Air Pol1,ution Control District with the assistance of
local agencies; and -
WHEREAS, local agreement on a’consistent set of forecasts may eliminate
the question about population growth often raised by the Federal and State
agencies which fund wastewater treatment facilities, and hence save time and
money for local jurisdictions seeking such.funding; and
s
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad recognizes that the need for additi’onal
information concerning household size creates the situation whereby the
population forecasts are stated as a range dependent on varying household
sizes; and
-.
WHEREAS, the forecast ranges for Carlsbad’s General Plan area are as
fol lows:
Occupied
DweI I ing
Units
.r-
I975 -
7,240
I985
.I7,268
--
e
’ t995 -
’ 29,160
Average Househo I d 2.72 2.28-2.66 2.19-2.60
-.. C
1. . .+ .. .. .*
2
3
4
5
6
-7
8
.9
io
' 11
12
'. 13
.'
* 14
* . I5
.. 16
17
3-E
'19
2c
21
22
2:
24
25
26
.27
2E
'. i : - . i- -.-'
I995
.1_1
1985 - I975 -
Population 19,700 .39,371-45,932 . 63,860-75,816; and
WHEREAS, these forecasts wi I1 enable the City of Carlsbad to uti t ize
.*
the information in local planning and decision-making to assure that local
plans will compl'ement each other in the attainment of local and regional
development objectives; and
WHEREAS, the adoption of these forecasts will have no effect on nny
State subventions received by the City of Carlsbad;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED .that the Ci3-y Counci I of the City of
Carlsbad hereby: -.
1. Adopts the modified Series IV Population Forecasts as coniair,ed
herein for the Carlsbad General Plan area and certifies them to the Co;n?re-
hens i ve P I ann i ng Organ i zat ion for use in the ' Areaw ide t:'ater Qua I i ty Manqement
Plan, Air'Quality Maintenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review Procedures, I regional
transportation and housing planning,. and Phe other regional studies described
in the adopted Comprehensive Planning Organiza-tion FY 1978-81 Overall- Work
Program;
2.
-
Accepts the modified Series IV Pdpulation Forecasts as valid for
'two (2) years only; and
3. Requests that these population forecasts de updated at least every
two (2) years in order to more effectively, as data becomes available, recog-
nize the effects of the City of 'Carlsbad's sewer moratorium, the effects of
the Coastal Act areas and the effects on population of alternate approved
sewer systems with i n the communi ty . *
. PASSED, APPROVE0,'AND ADOPTED by the City Counci l of the City of
Carlsbad at .a regular meeting held the 18th , day of Octo bet- .- ., 1977
by the foltowing vote to wit:
xxxxxxx
, .- rj. ~.~ .- -L.-_. . .., ,- - .. . ~ . ....... . . . , , ,~ . ._
.>
b
1 AYES: Councilmen Frazee, Lewis, Packard and Skotnicki
2 NOES : None ..
3 ABSENT: Counci Itroman Cas1 er
4
5
6
7
8
-9
10
.
ATTEST :
11 (SEAL) .
. . 12
13
a4
15
. 16
17
18
39
20
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22
23
24
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