HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-07-15; City Council; 6305; Preliminary Series V ForecastsCITY OF CARLSBAD
INITIAL
AGENDA BILL NO. 6 303i Dept. Hd. Jc/
DATE : July 15, 1980 Cty. Atty.
DEPARTMENT : Planning ,, Cty. Mgr.K
PRELIMINARY SERIES V FORECASTS
STATEMEXT ilZ THE MATTE?
In conjunction with the presentation of the preliminary Series V
regional forecasts by Rick Alexander from CPO, staff has attached the
following memo for your information.
Also Glenn Barroga, district office manager for the Census Bureau, will
be available to answer any questions regarding the Census material sent
to Council last week.
FISCAL IMPACT
No direct fiscal impact .
EXHIBITS
1. Memo to City Manager
Council Action:
7-15-80 Council heard the report and took no action.
MEMORANDUM
DATE : July 15, 1980
TO : Frank Aleshire City Manager
FROM: James C. Hagaman Planning Director
SUBJECT: POPULATION FORECASTS
There are three different agencies that give population
counts and/or forecasts for Carlsbad. They are the Census Bureau, the Department of Finance (DOF), and the Comprehensive Planning Organization (CPO). A brief explanation of each agency's method and how their figures are used follows.
Census Bureau
In 1980, the decennial census was taken. This was an attempt to count every resident in the United States. The decennial
census is used by other agencies to check the accuracy of
their forecasts. The Federal government also uses the decennial figure, revised annually, for revenue sharing.
Department of Finance
The Department of Finance (DOF) estimates population annually. The estimates are based on a count of the housing units.
DOF uses the Census figures as a benchmark for their own estimations. The DOF figures are the basis for the distri-
bution of state subventions.
Comprehensive Planning Organization
CPO makes population forecasts every two years. Series Y,
which will be presented this year, uses the 1978 DOF population
count as the base data. From this base data, population projections are made. These projections are used to compute Carlsbad's portion in a variety of programs, such as the
water quality plan and the revised regional air quality
program.
For your information a brief explanation of the use of population figures for the "fair share" housing in the
proposed Housing Element follows.
HOUSING ELEMENT
CPO computed the additional housing units needed for the population of San Diego from 1980-85. They used the infor-
mation gathered in the special census of 1975. This special
census was conducted by DOF. CPO then estimated Carlsbad's
"fair share" of low/moderate income housing.
Housing and Community Development disagreed with CPO's estimates of "fair share" housing. They told CPO to redo
the "fair share" estimates basing the new estimates on the
total number of households who are low and moderate income and who pay more than 25% of their income for housing.
To make the new estimations of "fair share" housing, CPO
determined the percentage of households meeting that defi-
nition in the 1975 special census. They assumed the per-
centage was the same in 1979 and revised Carlsbad's "fair share" using the annual 1979 DOF population figure.
Note:
The 1980 decennial census conducted by the Census Bureau is the only count of residents. All the other population
figures are estimations based on the best available infor-
mation.
JC : ka
7/10/80
June 30, 3980
c m: Pecipients of the hater Exivironmmtal Assessment-
o %yional Growth Forecasting - A Basis for I~laniiing
an Diego's nture ..................................... 2
o %e Prel.iminary Series V Forecasts ..................... 3,
o 3
o Lazatiori of Growth ..................................... 4
Canparison of the Series V and &ries IV Forecasts .....
0 AJ?Pii?,!jIX ............................................... 11
City and [hiincorpxattd Cornmwity Plan &ea &xnGc?rics .......................................... 12
Re1 iiiji1-iary Series V Forecasts - %kal Pqpulation by Jurisdiction 1979-2000 ........................... 13
?he San Diego region is currently engaged in the process of looking
ahead--to 1985, 1995 and the year 2000--to understand what problems and 0p;prtunities new growth and develow,ent may bring, and how we can best respond to them. Tnis process is gmwed in the Regional
Growth Forecasting undertzken by the 14 cities and the County of Sari Diego, and carried out through the Region's Council of Cbvernments- - the Cmprehensive Planning Organization. The Reeional Growth Forecasts are a description of the region's future in terms of the amount and location of population, housing and employment that can be expcted
in 1985, 1995 and 2000, based on local government general plans and policies and state and national conditions and trends.
haveon the economy, our transprtation system, our environment, and
other factors that affect our daily lives. %e Master Ehvironmental Assessent provides a canprehensive andysis of these conditions.
Forecasts also permit us to assess the effects new growth will
%e Regional Growth Forecasting Process has evolved during the past
decade. are known as the! Series ZV Fort?casts (adopted h 1977). Currently, the Prelhihary Series V Forecasts, which will update Series IV based
on changes in plms, policies and other factors affecting growth, zre
being considered €or adoption and use by the local governments in the region. After review of the preliminary forecasts is canplete, the final Series V Forecasts will be prepared for action by each of the region's cities and the County, and cadoption by the CIT) Board of Directors. Series IV for use in local and regionwide planning for public facilities,
housing, growth management, economic development, air quality, energy, water quality, open space, parks and recreation, and transprtation.
Tine mst recent forecasts to be developed and used extensively
After adoption, the final Series V Forecasts will supersede
Tfie Preliminary Sries V Regional Growth Forecasts (see the map and tables in thc appendix) show the following changes in the Fqion between now and 1335:
o Population will increase by 660,000 -- fran 1.81 million to 2.47 -- million. Tinis level of growth will add an average of 44,000
people, the equivalent of a city the size of Ia Eksa, to the region each year.
County, an3 the City of Chula Vista in the South &iy.
.%!I Dicgo arid thc unincorprated area will see the most growth in terms of absolute nuidxxs .
---- I--
Tile fastest ymxwing areas are in tk Iarth
"lie City of
2
o mplopent Will increase by over 18,000 jobs pr year. Over half of these 275,000 new jobs will be lccated in the City of San Diego.
o About 8,000 acres of land will be developed in urban uses each
&ty of aula Vista. By 1995, over 122,000 acres of opn land will
be converted to urban uses.
prtion of the region.
ear to acmdate this growth. This is an area larger than the
'Ibis will double the size of the urbanized
CCXYPAFUSON O? SIE SERIES V AND SERIES IV FORECASrS ,
How do the Preliminary Series V Forecasts canpre with the Series N
Forecasts azopted in l977? This question is hprtant because it gives an idea of how local plicies and conditions affecting the future growth and developat of the region have changed.
growth will affect how our future environmental and economic problems are vied and the extent and timing of the solutions needed.
These changes in forecast
"he Series V Forecasts show about 50,000 mre people residing in the
region in 1385 than do the Series IV Forecasts (a 2.5% increase). In addition, Series V . .I fuzecasts . 17% mre jobs in the region in 1985 than did Series IV.
By 1995, horiever, the Series V and Series Tv population forecasts are
less than J-% apart. The Series V employment forecasts continue higher than for Series XV-by about: 10%
There are sane hprtant differexes between the Sries Nand Series
V Forecasts ir, nmy subareas within the Region, due prirrarily to the institution of growth management plans by the City of Sm Diego and
the County of San Diego after the 1977 forecasts were prepared.
The Central subarea, consisting of Coronado, National City and a prtion of the City of San Diego including dmmimm, grows less in
the Series Vpreliminary forecasts than in Series IV. forecast is due to lower dmsity in rest of San Diego offsetting the increases in density assmed as part of Centre City redevelopat. ESnploymt increases in the Central subarea are due primarily to the Centre City redeveloplent plan in Sari Diego.
This reduced
Tne Ebrth City sSarea consists of Fan Diego north of 1-8, Ikl Mar, and the major unincorprated ccmunity of mway. Series V than was forecast in Series IV. of an Diego's major growth area, along with the border &-ea.
mcnt increases in this subarea keep pace with Wlxllatioi1 qroW1. Ehploy- ment gm~zth is strongest in the K?arny Mesa, Sorrento Vallc!y and Elirmnar mad areas.
This area cjro:.~s more in
By 1995, this is the City
Ehploy-
aula Vista, Ir~iprial. Reach, the San Diego border- camunities and the unincorpxcit.ud camunities of Otay and South Eiy are in the South
Suburban sl.ib<irca. niore than forecasted in 1977.
1Pie tot21 popalntion of the arm CJL-OW; substantially
This chmgc in aic growth rate is mainly
3
attributable to thres public land use policy changes between the two
series of forecasts: (1) the approval of the City of San Diego Otay
f&st Corrsnunity Plan; (2) the increase of areas available for develop-
ment in aula Vista in areas east of 1-805; and (3) increased resi- dential redevelopent, both public and private, in Chula Vista and the San Ysidro/Border and may carimunities.
The rbrth County-West subarea includes the cities of Carlshad and Oceanside and the unincorporated camunities that make up San Dieguito.
Total population grads at a higher rate than forecast in Series IV, due to greater growth in the two cities. The population to employment
ratio, already a problem in 1978, is forecast to be slightly worse in
have to make long hcxne/work cmutes to areas of the region which contain major concentrations of employment.
- 1995. A low ratio of jobs to Fopulation means that residents will
In other subareas of the region (East Suburban, North munty-East and East County) th~? Series N and Series V Forecasts are similar. '
Overall, the developrent pattern illustrated by the Preliminary Series V Forecasts include areas where local governments feel adequate public services will exist, at least through 1985.
sensitive (or "uiisuitable" ) areas such as floodplains, steep sloges and natural resource arcas, tmullt be left undevelopd, according to
the Forecasts. of the suitability of vacant land in the regiGn for acccarencdating population gmwth and the location of the Series V forecasts of growth in ccmparison to land suitability.
planners of the region's cities, thft County of San Diego, and the CEO.
Other conclusions from this "kvelopnent Suitability Analysis" are:
Pmy environmentally
Giis conclusion was mzde as a result of an evaluation ..
The evaluation involved the
o There is appmximately three times as much suitable land, region- wide, as mUld be required to accmmdate the Preliminary Series V
Forecasts of residential developent by 1985.
Cnly about 5% of the ppulation growth forecast by 1985 in Preliminary Series V is located in "unsuitable" areas. o
&spite the generally satisfactory dlevelopicnt pttern projectj_?d in
the Preliminary Series V Forecasts, there are sann imprtant problems
which will b2 ca:i,~undd by the higher rate of growth of the Series
V Fmecasts as compred with Scries IV. Series V Forccasks on 18 separate areas of concerti, as well as the in-
foimation frm the ikvcloi-r,!cnt Suitability Amlyiis, arc discusscd in detail in the Master 1:nvironrnentsl. Assessment. for the Prcl.imi.naLy
Series V P'orccxsts (bYA), which ws prcpx-ed by the CTO to assist in
the c?va.iuation ot thc pm3 irriinary Lorecasts by Jocal govei-nmcnts and citizens, arid for use as a rcfcrencc dmizrucnt in conducting environ-
Kr>ntid rcvict..; of dc:veJuyr!~nnt projects and plans in the rcqion.
The inyucts of the Preliminary
-__I I____c___ --------__I -_-_ --c --- ----I __ --__
,r-. .Ebbwing is a table which smarizes the impacts of the Preliminary
Series V Forecasts and capires them with the impacts of the Series IV Forecasts. ?his table is based on the information contained in the MEA report.
IMPACTS OF TIE SERIES V
REGIONAL (zxwm rnx-
n3es the rate or location of growth in the Prelimi-
nary Series V Forecasts
present a problem for meeting local, state or federal qoals and cb-
How do the impacts of the Preliminary Series
V Forecasts cmpre with
those of Series IV?
.
jectivesi
Minor 1 l%de;te Severe Better
X ricul ture astal Resources C omic Growth
Wveloment X x.
ology & Wlgic
istoric Resources
X I X
arks, Pecrea tion
ial Services
Ti-ansprta tion
ammen t Eater (ZJalitv
XlI I X beta t ion
5
'Jhe four areas in which the rate or location of growth in the Preliminar$ Series V Forecasts may present a severe problem for our region in meting local, state or federal goals and cbjcctives are discussed below.
Air Quality
While it is not yet possible to make definitive statements about air quality impacts if regioral growth actually occurs as described in the Preliminary Series V Forecasts, it is possible to draw sane preliminary
conclusions:
o 'Ihe Preliminary Series V Forecasts show growth occurring in the - region at an accelerated rate compared to Series IV. of motor vehicle trips and missions, and mn-vehicular sources of emissions (like industrial plants, paints and solvents) also
increases Over Series IV. quality as coipred with Series Iv will occur. %e Series Iv Forecasts are the basis of the region's currently adopted Plan for meeting federal and state mandated air quality standards.
This conclusion is based on several assumptions concerning future
travel behavior, land use pttterns and other factors.
that fuel will continue to be available in quantities desired by all mbtor vehicle users at a price they will be able and willing to
py-could be especially significant if future fuel supplies are lover and/or prices highs than anticipated.
amount
Therefore, furth2r degradation of air
Che assmption-
o Any increases in eiiissions and degradation of air quality forecast'to occur as a result of adoption of the Series V Forecasts will have to
be accmodated in th~? 1982 revision to the Rsjional Air Qality
Strategy. pollution missions, air quality, and control measures needed in the
1982 plan to meet national air quality standards by the lqally-madated
deadline of 1987. distribution of that population forecast by Series Vwill have adverse
hnpcts on air quality in the San Diego region, it will be necessary to mitigate those impcrts with additional air pllution control neasures or more strin2ent application of existing controls than are
nDw included in the reion's Plm to meet air quality standards.
Series V, once adopted, milst be used in calculating air
If increased ppulation and employment and the
o It is clear that additional reductions in emissions will be diffi- cult to obtain. virtual1.y exfwust the ptential for reducing emissions without a significant additional cost and disruption of current lifestyles. Pbre stringent transpxtation controls may be the only control area remaining froin which additional emission reductions realistically
can be obtained. instituting disincentives is the nost effective my to achieve
signifj.cant- emission reductions.
likely to be plitically and socially unppglar.
%e tx tics cwren tly recmendcd for implen-,entation
Anal.ysis of trans,mrtation tactics slicws that
INmt disincentives arc, haever,
6
Energy
me impact of the Preliminary Series V Forecasts on energy consumption in the region and its comparison with the energy impacts of Series IV
indicate the follming:
o Electricity and natural gas demand based on the Series V Forecasts are higher than those based on the Series A7 Forecasts in both-1985
and 1995. are due almost entirely to the significant increases in employment in the Series V Forecasts as cmprcd with Series IV. Both the Series IV and Series V forecasts of electricity and natural gas
increases 80% to 100% by 1995 and natural gas increases 30% to 35%
These increases range from 5% to 12%. %ese increases
c show substantial increases over 1978. Electricity consumption
by 1995.
o Consunption of gasoline is expected to be slightly lcrxer in 1995 for the Preliminary Series V Forecasts than for the Series' IV Ebrecasts. This is caused by a comparative decrease in travel in
the Series V Forecasts due to fewer motor vehicle trips offsetting
slightly higher hoxe to work trip lengths as compared with Series N. &duction in travel (number of trips) is related to decreases in expcted real personal incme. ~0th the Series IV and Series v . forecasts show decreases in gasoline consumption from 1978, due
mainly to federal new car fuel efficiency performance standards
which are assmcl to increase the average miles per gallon of in-use motor vehicles by about 80% ktvecn 1978 and 1995.
Both the Series IV and Series V based energy forecasts could contribute to the fcllowiiig major energy problems in the region during the next 15 years:
o Population and mployrrent growth may result in a need to aZlproxi- mately double the region's existing electricity generating capcity,
if conservation measures are not aggressively implemmted. There will be a probability of electricity shortages in the late 1980's and 199O's, given cnccrtainties in the amount of conservation that will occur, the lo-% lead time for approval aiid constrwtion of new
plants, and the mcertain status of SDCI&E's electricity generation plans 0
o Although gasoline consumption remains consistently below present
consumption, ptential su2ply problems could result in adverse ecor,=l;nic impacts dw to shortages even with no increases in con-
surrptiori.
o price increases for all three major corxmitional energy types will
result in energy pilrcfnlses accollnting for larger and lager prtions
of thc incme of households in the region.
7
Municipal Finance
Population growth as forecast in Preliminary Series V is expected to adversely affect the financial status and service levels of many local public agencies. lfie projected regionwide growth rate of 2.5% annually
through 1995 is too rapid to enable growth to be accmcdated through-
out the region without adding to the financial burden of local agencies. Revenue constraints hpsed by Propsition 13 and appropriation limitations
under mpsition 4 will increase the financial pressures.
The rate and location of developnent are critical factors in deter-
mining whether local public agencies can accmcdate growth efficiently.
previous studies of the San Diego region have found that where the population growth rate continually exceeds ahat 1.5% annually, public service costs can be expected to rise much more rapidly than
the population level. capita will rise over the, or current service levels will have to be
reduced. me basic reason for this is that sustained high rates of growth create the recurring need for costly phlic facilities and improvements .
?he implication is that public costs per'
As 3 consequence of the above factors, service cutbacks or delays, overcroding of facilities, further increases in user fees and/or jimp in front-end costs to new hone buyers will likely occur mgre frequently and with more severity than in the pst. If essential urban services are to be maintained in the face of this growth, then several significant areawide impcts seem inevitable:
Further Service Reductions - Service level cutbacks will probably continue and Rrhaps deepn for services such as libraries, parks,
recreation, street maintenance, planning and aliministration. reductions will be necessary to maintain fufiding levels for higkr priority services such as water, sewr, plice, fire, and sani- tation.
These
Further Increases in kvelopnent Fees and Service Charges - 'ib meet the service dezayds of new residents, local agencies will find it iiccessary to raise existing fees and hpse new assessments on developers and builders. required to construct mre public facilities at their own expznse or establj.sh resident financing plans through the use of spcial
assesmerits .
In lieu of fees, developrs may be
Higher New Home Prices and Building Costs - Increases i.n assessments
and developmrt fees discussed dmve will raise cost of bui.lding
new hones and developing ccrrar,ercial/indushrial sites.
indust.ri;l enterprises wil.1 a.l.x, face high2r front-end costs which
niay discom-age some undertakings.
in the rccjion n!ay be advcrrely affected as a result.
h'm camercial/
Economic activity and anployment
Transpartation
me following discussion identifies the major transportation inzpacts of the Preliminary Series V Forecasts as canpared with the Series IV
Forecasts;
o Because Series V forecasts a larger population than Series N for 1985, it can be assmd that there will be a correspnding increase in needed capacity of the highway and transit systems
. in this tiespan. Additional poplation will mean more travel.
o Fapid gmth in North County cities and in South Eay cmunities places the most pressure on transportation facilities serving
these areas. the region's existing and propsed highway network including
portions of Interstate 15f State mute (SR) 680, SECL25, SR52,
SR76, SR54, and SFU7. It also raises the question of additional highway or expressway needs for SR56 (Del Mar to Poway) and SR680
(Leucadia to Rancho Bernardo). the need for the South ky Light hi1 Transit (LRT) and for analysis of the possible north and easterly extension of the LRT.
If, as Series V Forecasts indicate, the balance between employment ard place of residence is decreasing slightly regionwide and par- ticularly in the wstern portion or' mrth County, then thzre will continu2 to be an increase in work trip length over the next 20
years.
1966 to 1977. the future, but at a much slower rate.
-
"his gmwth reinforces the need for hprovements to
Th? Series V Forecasts reinforce
o
1ba-e to mrk trip lengths in the region grew 10% from
Hme to work trip lengths will continue to grow in
o Personal dispsable incme in 1995 under Series V is about 10% less than that forecasted in Series IV. Incme affects travel
directly and also influ?nses car ownership. kss disposable incame coupled with increased auto costs may have a fairly dramatic effect on travel dernmd and the tm of trmsprtation services called for in the year 2000.
In smaryf added ppulatian, rapid Nxth County and South Bay grotzth,
and reduction in c~p~oyn;~~t,/residential balznce in me sil5areas all pint to increastd travel and, therefore, increased pressure on existing transmrtation services zaci facilities.
reduction in disposable income coiipled with uncertainties &ut fuel
cost , fuel availcbiliky, continu& economic growth may slow down growth
in travel dand in the long run, and reduce the need for additional transprtation services md facilities.
cluded that increased ppulation in the region by the year 2000 will
most likely result in significant increase in travel in the region.
Congestion , f tic1 consimption, air pollution missions and gcneral
mobility will worsen with diminishing improvements to the highway
Stidler household size and a
On the whole, it must k con-
9
.
I
netsark due to inflation and the fact that a larger percentage of total highway dollars are being spent on maintenance and rehitbilitation of existing roadways .
lhese conclusions are very much depmdenton assumptions about the cost
and availability of fuel.
have a great impct on the transportation, air quality and energy strategies that the region will have to pursue.
is imprative that gasdine costs and supply be closely monitored and
that the most recent information be used by citizens, businesses and governments in planning for the future.
Changes in the future cost of gasoline can
For these reasons, it
.
10
. ..
APPENDIX
1. 2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. 11. 12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
.- i I *. ..
Legend - Cities
H 'CARLSBAD
C CHULAVISTA N CORONADO
G DELMAR
F ELCAJON L ESCONOIDO M IMPERIAL BEACH D LEMONGROVE E LAMESA
, B NATIONALCITY I OCEANSIDE
A SAN DIEGO
K SANMARCOS
J VISTA
Legend - Unincorporated
Community Plan Areas
SOUTH BAY
SWEETWATER
OTAY
VALE DE OR0
ALPiNE
LAK ESI D E
POVJJAY
SANTEE
RAMONA
JAMU L-DULZURA
cwsr DEHESA
-7
I, I
FALLERCOK R A i N BOW
VALLEY CENTER
SAN DlEGUiTO
BONSA!-L
PALA PAUi'AA
.A -------
C !TY Ai'.\! D BJ N E N 60 Fi PO I? AT ED
Cr4PiNEeEit,r5PV PeAN AREA
BO U N Fl3 A E 'i ES
12
Jurisdiction
% of
1979
1.8
4.8
1.2 .3
4.0
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.1 2.7
4.1 46.7
.8
1.9
22.6
.7
100.0
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Ma;
Et Cajon
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
San Diego
San Marcos
Vista
Uninc. area
ex. East County
East County
Total Region
Region
1s
3.2
5.0
.8
.2
3.1
3.3
1.0
2.2
1 .o
2.0
4.3
42.6
1.4
2.3
26.8
.8
100.0
1
1979+
32,100
8 1,400
2 1,300
5,200 71,100
60,000 20,800
50,100
19,900
48,100
72,400
825,700
14,600
33,300
399,700" ''
1 1,600* '
1,767,300
TOTAL POPULATION BY JURISDICTION
1979-2000
1985
51,100
100,000
19,300
5,400
76,200
77,900
2 1,500
54,400
23,900
48,200
78,400
940,000
26,900
48,200
497,000
14,600
!,083,030
1995
77,800
124,200
19,500
5,300
77,200
82,400
24,000
55,500
24,500
49,000
107,400
1,053,100
34,700
55,900
662,700
18,700
2,471,900
2000
86,800
130,000
19,300
5,300
76,900
82,000
26,200
55,900
24,600
50,201)
132,300
1,082,400
35,000
57,100
762,703
20,700
2,647,400
Chanae 79 - 95 " Nu mer ical
45,700
42,800
{ 1,800) 100
6,100
22,400
3,200
5,400
4,600
900
35,000
227,400
20,100
22,600
263,000
7,100
704,6130
Percen t
142.4
52.6
. (8.41
1.9
8.6
37.4
10.8
23.1
1.9
48.3
27.5
137.7
67.9
65.8
~ 61.2
39.9
15.4
** Esrimate, San Dtego County Department of Planning and Land Use.
E;:inatc, California State Dcpartrncnt of Finance
13
TOTAL POPULATION BY UNlNCORPORATED
COMMUNITY PLAN AREA
(REVISED) 1978-2000
-~ ~
Community
Plan Area
Alpine Bonsall Crest - Dehesa
Fallbrook Jamul-Dulzura
Lakeside North County Metrc
Otay
Pala-Pauma
Pendleton-Delur
Poway
Rainbow
Ramona
San Dieguito
Santee
South Bay
Sl;lee twa ter
Vaile de Oro
Valley Center
Re main der u n i nc.
area excluding
East County East Counlv
Total Llninc. Area
1978+
5,300
1,500
5,000
17,100
4,300
36,300
35,600
80i)
2,100
200
30,900
1,400
11,lUO
5 1,4CO
40,100
31,900
1 1,200
57,600
5,000
46,100
1 1,200
iO6,lOO
6,200
1,500
5,200
19,400
5,400
45,500
53,400
900 2,700
200
38,600
1,600
12,890
64,000 53,400
35,800
15,100
82,800
5,000
47,500 14,600
51 1,653
7 995
13,700
1,600
8,700 25,700
14,900
58,100 72,600
5,700
3,000
200 59,500
2,000
29,100
8 1,500
65,100
35,900
25,200
102,9UO
6,100
51,200 18,700
68 1,409
2000
18,300
4,200
11,900
37,500
23,000
63,200 84,100
7,200
5,600
600
63,500
4,700
40,200
92,000
64,900
36,200
25,100
110,800
14,700
55,000 20,700
783,4630
Change
Numerical
8,400
100
3,700
8,600
10,600
21,800 37,000
4,900
900
0 28,600
600
18,000
30,100
25,000
4,000
14,000
45,300 1,100
5,100 7,500
275,300
- 95
Percent
158.5
6.7
74.0
50.3
246.5
60.1
103.9
612.5 42.9
0.0
92.6
42.9
162.2
58.6
62.3
12.5
125.0
78.6 22.0
11.1
67.0
67.8
'1978 is the base year for the Series V Forecasts. No mxe recent data are avarlabte for unincorporated Community Plan Areas.
% off
1978
1.3
.4
1.2
4.2
1.1
8.9
8.8
.2
.5
.1
7.6
.3 2.7
12.7
9.9
7.8
2.8
14.2
1.2
-
17.3
2.8
100.0 -
2.0
.2
1.3
3.8 2.2
8.5
10.6
.8
.4
- .1 8.7
.3
4.3
12.0
9.6
5.3
3.7
15.1
.9
7.5
2.7
100.0
.