HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-11-04; City Council; 6305-1; Series V Population ForecastsA G E 2
DATE
DEPA
D
,R
!NITIAL
Cty. Atty. VFb
A BILL NO. L3Q3* - *! DepnHd. -&#-
NOVEMBER 4, 1980 -
SUBJECT :
SERIES V POPULATION FORECASTS
- -I_ - __-I-
. - STATEMENT OF THE - M,4TTER -_--
On October 14, 1980, the planning staff completed its review of the final Series V
Forecasts prepared by CPO. Certain discrepancies were discovered during that review
and a meeting was set-up between CPO and the city (in order) to resolve the problems. That meeting resulted in the following:
1) CPO assured the staff that their method based on "usable area for development" rather than gross acreage would not have substantial effect on short term forecasts.
2) CPO assured the staff that adoption of Series.V will have no effect on any sub-
ventions received or potentially available.
3)
4)
CPO will modify its next forecast (Series VI) to incorporate the city's concerns. This will increase the population forecasts over the long term.
Staff requested CPO to use its existing methodology to predict the buildout population for the General Plan Area (CPO's year 2000 forecast total is not buildout). The rough total buildout population estimate by CPO is 160,000.
Note: This is the same total as roughly calculated independently by city staff.
It is the opinion of the planning staff that CPO'S short-term forecasts should be fairly
accurate since the realities of the Coastal Act and the tax split situation (relative to the city's) annexation of the county islands will probably slow residential development in those areas and thus compensate €or the discrepancy in CPO'S model. long-term, resolution of the tax split problem, clarification and possible redirection of Coastal Commission policy, plus incorporation of the city's residential subdivision processing procedures into CPO'S forecasting model will yield higher population values than those reported in Series V. the time period in which staff feels the numbers are inaccurate, staff can support approval..
.
However, in the
Because the forecasts will be revised prior to
This will insure region-wide consistency and compatibility for the forecasts.
EXHIBITS - 1. Resolution No. b 35c
RECOMMFNIIAT ION
If Council concurs, they should adopt Resolution No. Population Forecasts with the qualifications contained therein.
,
b3<ry APPROVING Series V -
Council Action:
11 -4-80 Counci 1 adopted Resolution ,6355, approving Series V Population Forecasts.
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RESOLUTION EO. 6355
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, AFPHOVING SERIES V POP- ULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN
AREA FOR USE IN THE AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND OTHER REGIONAL AND LOCAL
PLANNING NEEDS
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the
Comprehensive Planning Organization to update the Regional Growth
Fo'recasts for the San Diego Region using recently available 1980
Census information and current State Department of Finance
information; and
WHEREAS, the Series V Population Forecasts may provide a key
to the planning of future sewage collection and treatment facili-
ties as a component of the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan
being prepared by the Comprehensive Planning Organization with
the assistance of local agencies and the Air Quality Maintenance
Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive Planning Organization
and the Air Pollution Control District with the assistance of
local agencies; and
.
WHEREAS, local agreement on a consistent set of forecasts
may eliminate the question about population growth often raised
by the Federal and State agencies which fund wastewater treat-
ment facilities, and hence save time and money for local juris-
dictions seeking such funding; and
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad recognizes the discrepancy
between CPO's methodology and the City's policy relative to the
processing of residential subdivisions; and
WHEREAS, this discrepancy would cause the predicted pop-
ulation to be lower in the long term for the CPO forecast than
for numbers ba.sed solcy on City policy and General Plan con-
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will not preclude transfer of potential population from one area lo II
are a likely representation of population trends for the City;
and
WHEREAS, the city and CPO staffs have agreed to resolve
the discrepancies and formulate more representative numbers
through the Series VI process; and,
WHEREAS, the utilization of "significant sub-areas" is to
provide more specific applications of the overall figures and
to another consistent with city-wide totals; and, I1
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WHEREAS, these. forecasts will enable the City of Carlsbad to
utilize the information in local planning and decision-making to
assure that local plans will complement each other in the attain-
ment of local and regional development objectives; and
WHEREAS, the adoption of these forecasts will have no
effect on any State subventions received by the City of Carlsbad;
#<' /I NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the ll
City of Carlsbad hereby:
19 II 1. Adopts the Series V Population Forecasts as contained 20
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herein (attachment A) for the Carlsbad incorporated City, General
Plan area, and significant sub-areas and certifies them to the
Comprehensive Planning Organization for use in the Areawide
Water Quality Management Plan, Air Quality Maintenance Plan,
Clearinghouse Review Procedures, regional transportation and
housing planning, and the other regional studies described in the
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adopted Comprehensive Planning Organization FY 1981-83 Overall
Work Program;
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2. Accepts the Series V Population Forecasts as valid
for two (2) years only; and
3. Requests that these population forecasts be updated at
least every two (2) years.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED by the City Council of the
City of Carlsbad at a regular meeting held the 4th day of
. ~lpw 1980 by the following vote to wit:
AYES : Council Members Packard, Casler, Anear, Lewis and Kulchin
NOES : None
ABSENT: None
. RONALD C. PACKARD, Mayor
ATTEST :
(SEAL)
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