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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-11-04; City Council; 6305-1; Series V Population ForecastsA G E 2 DATE DEPA D ,R !NITIAL Cty. Atty. VFb A BILL NO. L3Q3* - *! DepnHd. -&#- NOVEMBER 4, 1980 - SUBJECT : SERIES V POPULATION FORECASTS - -I_ - __-I- . - STATEMENT OF THE - M,4TTER -_-- On October 14, 1980, the planning staff completed its review of the final Series V Forecasts prepared by CPO. Certain discrepancies were discovered during that review and a meeting was set-up between CPO and the city (in order) to resolve the problems. That meeting resulted in the following: 1) CPO assured the staff that their method based on "usable area for development" rather than gross acreage would not have substantial effect on short term forecasts. 2) CPO assured the staff that adoption of Series.V will have no effect on any sub- ventions received or potentially available. 3) 4) CPO will modify its next forecast (Series VI) to incorporate the city's concerns. This will increase the population forecasts over the long term. Staff requested CPO to use its existing methodology to predict the buildout population for the General Plan Area (CPO's year 2000 forecast total is not buildout). The rough total buildout population estimate by CPO is 160,000. Note: This is the same total as roughly calculated independently by city staff. It is the opinion of the planning staff that CPO'S short-term forecasts should be fairly accurate since the realities of the Coastal Act and the tax split situation (relative to the city's) annexation of the county islands will probably slow residential development in those areas and thus compensate €or the discrepancy in CPO'S model. long-term, resolution of the tax split problem, clarification and possible redirection of Coastal Commission policy, plus incorporation of the city's residential subdivision processing procedures into CPO'S forecasting model will yield higher population values than those reported in Series V. the time period in which staff feels the numbers are inaccurate, staff can support approval.. . However, in the Because the forecasts will be revised prior to This will insure region-wide consistency and compatibility for the forecasts. EXHIBITS - 1. Resolution No. b 35c RECOMMFNIIAT ION If Council concurs, they should adopt Resolution No. Population Forecasts with the qualifications contained therein. , b3<ry APPROVING Series V - Council Action: 11 -4-80 Counci 1 adopted Resolution ,6355, approving Series V Population Forecasts. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 24 15 16 e- a7 18 39 20 2 1. 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 RESOLUTION EO. 6355 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, AFPHOVING SERIES V POP- ULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE AREAWIDE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND OTHER REGIONAL AND LOCAL PLANNING NEEDS WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the Comprehensive Planning Organization to update the Regional Growth Fo'recasts for the San Diego Region using recently available 1980 Census information and current State Department of Finance information; and WHEREAS, the Series V Population Forecasts may provide a key to the planning of future sewage collection and treatment facili- ties as a component of the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive Planning Organization with the assistance of local agencies and the Air Quality Maintenance Plan being prepared by the Comprehensive Planning Organization and the Air Pollution Control District with the assistance of local agencies; and . WHEREAS, local agreement on a consistent set of forecasts may eliminate the question about population growth often raised by the Federal and State agencies which fund wastewater treat- ment facilities, and hence save time and money for local juris- dictions seeking such funding; and WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad recognizes the discrepancy between CPO's methodology and the City's policy relative to the processing of residential subdivisions; and WHEREAS, this discrepancy would cause the predicted pop- ulation to be lower in the long term for the CPO forecast than for numbers ba.sed solcy on City policy and General Plan con- 4 5 6 7 8 will not preclude transfer of potential population from one area lo II are a likely representation of population trends for the City; and WHEREAS, the city and CPO staffs have agreed to resolve the discrepancies and formulate more representative numbers through the Series VI process; and, WHEREAS, the utilization of "significant sub-areas" is to provide more specific applications of the overall figures and to another consistent with city-wide totals; and, I1 12 13 14 15 16 WHEREAS, these. forecasts will enable the City of Carlsbad to utilize the information in local planning and decision-making to assure that local plans will complement each other in the attain- ment of local and regional development objectives; and WHEREAS, the adoption of these forecasts will have no effect on any State subventions received by the City of Carlsbad; #<' /I NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the ll City of Carlsbad hereby: 19 II 1. Adopts the Series V Population Forecasts as contained 20 21 22 23 24 herein (attachment A) for the Carlsbad incorporated City, General Plan area, and significant sub-areas and certifies them to the Comprehensive Planning Organization for use in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan, Air Quality Maintenance Plan, Clearinghouse Review Procedures, regional transportation and housing planning, and the other regional studies described in the 25 26 adopted Comprehensive Planning Organization FY 1981-83 Overall Work Program; 27 20 L3 J 9 2 z 4 fi Y c 7 E 9 1c 11 12 1: 1i 15 16 17 18 39 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 2. Accepts the Series V Population Forecasts as valid for two (2) years only; and 3. Requests that these population forecasts be updated at least every two (2) years. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad at a regular meeting held the 4th day of . ~lpw 1980 by the following vote to wit: AYES : Council Members Packard, Casler, Anear, Lewis and Kulchin NOES : None ABSENT: None . RONALD C. PACKARD, Mayor ATTEST : (SEAL) .. 'I .. I . JURISDICI'IONS LCARLSBAO ZCHlILA VISTA ' 3CI)RONAOO 4OEL MAR 5EL CAJON ' 6E SC OM 0 I DO TINPERIAL BEACH 8LA HESA PHATIONAL CXrV 15LEHOH GROVE IOOCf ANS I DE LlSAM OIECO 12SAI.8 HARCOS 13VISfA A 5 E I ! .. I 0 0 0' 'N M ~0 h . , ! . u .* Q dr( M ..r ,o 0 .e N r: i i .. i M r4 0 0 4 4 4 0 e 4 h , * 'e .z ' oi 0 ? o\ .bo 03 rc 'OI ,s4 i !' 1; I i ! j .,.... j ! I 0 " ... i . '* 'C H . !ln a. .. * c U c-cz HW3 7. T 33)c .. I I t-' I.. .. ____. .I I _.__ _._ .I * '. I- s -. . .. .. 1CARCSBAO ZCNULA M ISTA SEL CAJOW 6ESCONOIDB 9MfiTlONAt CITY 100 CE AN S I DE 12 SAH MARCOS. - * . ,. . 2 .. 7 .. I 0 0 0 N In ch OI m4 In 1 I .i I I I t i n - I ibJ I I iw ! 0 .. - . *. '. 1, ‘1 I i M . 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