Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout1981-02-10; City Council; 6508; Second Quarter Report 1980-81.,,......,, CITY l'F CARLSBAD AGENtA E ILL NO. FEBRUARY 10, 1981 DATE: ---------------------- DEPARTMgNT: __ F_I_N_A_N_C_E ____________ _ Subject: SECOND QUARTER REPORT· 1980-81 Statement of the Matter The City'!l position as of December 31, 1980, is generally good. Most: funds will experience some savings due to delays in hiring staff, · r-educed levels ·of activity or delayed capital projects. These savings will amount to ~bouc $400,000 in the general fund and $300,000 ~o other funds (primarii,if water). On the revenue side, ,tbtal revenues in operating funds·are very close to the initial httdget estimates. Capital funds have experienced higher than anticipated revenues due to improved development activity. These increases may amount LO as much as $800,000_by year end. For 1981-82, the City can expect the current development and economic activity to continue. Total general fund revenues for 81-82 will amount to $12.C: Million, an 18% increase over 80-81. fotal revenue to all funds will amount to about $21.4 Million. The major problem facing the City i1, 1981-82 from a fiscal viewpoint is . the proposed State budget deficit. The State has the power•to recover a portion of this budget deficit from local governments by removin~ State bailout funds ($715,000) and State subventions ($800,000). These reductions could cost the City a total of $1. 5 Million if t:he State attempts to re':over the ma.ximum amount . . Fiscal Impact For 1980-81, the City should expect to realize a general fund savings of about $400,000. This will improve the year end position of this fund. For 1981-82, the proposed State reductions make budgeting very difficult. If the Council adopts a balanced budget approach, there will be an additioMl effort required by the City staff to prepare the budget. Exhibits Report from Finance Director to the City Manager on the Second Quarter Report. Recommendation The staff reconnnends that the City Council accept tM s report and instru,~t staff to prepare a balanced 1981-82 budget, allowing for a $1.l Million reduction in State bailout funds and State subventions. The staff shall also research possible sources of add~tional revenues for 1981-82. Council Action: 2-10-81-Council accepted the report and directed staff to prepare a balance budget based on a maximum of $11.8 million. CITY OF CARLSBAD REPORT OF SECOND QUARTER FINANCIAL ACTIVITY 1980-81 Prepared by: February 10,1981 JAMES F. ELLIOTT Finance Director REPORT SUMMARY The City's position as of Dec;:.,1ber 31, 1980, is generally good. Most funds will -axpBrience s.:ime savings due to delays in hiring staff, reduced levels of activity •"';: dalayed capital projects. These savings will amount to about $400,000 in the general fund and $300,000 to other funds (primarily water). 0n the revenue side, total revenues in operating funds are very close to the initial budget estimates. Capital funds have experienced higher than anticipated revenues due to improved development activity. These increases may amount to as much as $800,000 by year end. For 1981-82, the City can expect the curr~r.t development and economic activity to continue. Total general fund revenues for 81-82 will amount to $12.8 Million, an 18% increase over 80-81. Total revenue to all funds will amount to about $21.4 Million. The major problem facing the City in 1981-82 from a fiscal view- point is the proposed State budget deficit. The State has the power to recover a portion of this budget deficit frcm local governments by removing State bailout funds ($715,000) and State subventions ($800,000). These reductions could cost the City a total of $1.5 Million if the State attempts to recover the maximum amount. REVENUES -1980-81 OVERVIEW Actual revenues as of December 31, 1980, are running slightly ahead of initial budget estimates. A conse,vative approach was used when formulating the 1980-81 budget figures, particularly in the areas of development. Sources, such as engineering, plan checking, public facilities and sewer connection fees, have shown a higher than anticipated return during the first six months of this year. This relatively positive experience in d~velopment has been somewhat offset by decreases in the area of sales and property trans- fer tax revenues. The pressure of tight credit and high interest rates have slowed general consumer buying from 5% in retail sales to as much as 20% in auto sales. Property sales have also slowed due to the increase in mortgage rates to as high as 17%. Table I sunnnarizes the experience of the first six months of 1980-81 and includes revised revenue estimates for several funds. TABLE I 1980-81 Revenues Through 12-31-80 Fund Budget Anticipated Actual Revised Estimate Revenue Income Through Budget Estimate Through 12-31-80 12-31-80 General $10,741,000 $4,750,000 $4,972.000 $10,762,100 Gas Tax 333,400 15lf,000 156,000 337,000 Sanitation 533,000 266,000 258,000 531,000 Sewer Con- struction 700,000 350,000 483,000 1,132,000 Revenue Sharing 530,000 170,000 176,000 546,000 P.F.F. (1) 67,500 35,000 278,000 560,000 Park-In- Lieu 65,000 32,000 103,000 175,000 Grants 939,350 470,000 66,000 795,000 Water 1,800,000 900,000 914,000 1,800,000 Other (2) 429,500 2151000 210,000 423,100 TOTAL $16,138!750 $7, 3!,2, 000 $7,616,000 $17,061,2.00 (lJ) Public Facilities Fees (2) Includes Library and Sa,,,er Bond Di.st:1.i.ct Service and Street Lighting GENERAL FUND REVENUES General Fund revenues are holding very close to the original budget estimates. Increases in development-related activities have been offset by decreases in sales tax revenues. The current estimate of $10.8 Million reflects an increase of about $20,000 over the budget estimate. 10 s FIGURE A G!~ERAL F'J~O J:i~•,:~-UE 79·80 ACTUAl: 80·81 B~O~H 80•81 ACWAt 1st 2nd 79•$0 Actu~I l\evcnce ------ 80·81 !u~get 60•81 Ac teal Revenue 0-• -• -• (:) 3rd \_-----~~~-~~--Figure A is a comparison of 1979-80 and the current budget, with actual experience through 12-31-80. The estimates for the ~emainder of 1980-81 have been based upon the following major assumptions: 1. The level of building activity experienced in the first six months of 1980-81 will continue through year end. Approximately $43 Million in building permits will be issued (About 400 EDU's). This will maintain the current pace in development activities. 2. Interest rates will drop from the current 20% to about 16%. This will help counteract the slow dcwn in consumer buying experienced during the past two to three months. 3. There will be no significant change in the level of State support to the City through various State subventions. These are revenues collected by the State that are then distributed to local governments. -2- These assumptions are the most important considerations and do not reflect all assumptions made in the process of budgeting or estimating revenues. One major unknown factor is the amount of interest the City will be able to earn on investment funds. An evaluation of this factor will be included in the next quart~rly report. FIGURE B PERCl'NT n.o § YIELDS ON SCLECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF OAII.Y BATES CNOEO i'l\101\Y PERC::HT 22.1) rM 2i.o 20.0 10.0 10.0 17.0 l&.O ,s.o 14.0 9.0 8.0 r.o .: PRIIJ'.E O>.t:< ,.: LOAN fV,lE § ,~ Iii ~ ~ ~ ... § r ~ ,_ '= rJ f ~..,.,-11-. --1-- E'\ /J ?_1 ~ iJ/ I i--... t l::c~cRc11,1, f/J'Efl / -;A ' CO-'\l'OS'lC • ~ V /.MW>lS i., ~. ~ ~ I?"= .; l f\.,,, ) ; ,/,~"·\. ~ OOO~Y C(l•t-:- 1 .}.--t:-? --~ : / I . .. --II , r-, •• -1 :--... ... ··- ~ 1/.i i~ r-- fr : r/ V\ "VJ ~ ~ r~ ... ~ ~-· ~ :;I ¢t _j : . : =l I'-'. -~ g § ·~-; . - : ?0.0 io.o 18.0 11.0 16.0 ,s.o 11.0 10.0 o,o e.o 1/ f!:lf~"1. 5.u.J. 11 I ;•, I I I I t I IJ.1.1..U.J. UlJ. UL.1.1, UJJ.llJ I I I I I 11 I I w lJ.!.ld" O I 10, ~o ~4 ta 11 1$ • 2l t ZI 4i H J 16 )J I) U II :) t U 5 Ii 3' U i, 14 2:0 ll U t U O NOV etc J/o.N rto ~1,/1 IJ'~ l!,W .ro,q ""· A\tC st~ OCT 111:N OEC Jm 1071'1 IQOO lQOI lAlEST OATA tlOllCO mt Al'tMGlS Cf' RAICS AV,\ILA~( fOII 11£ •~c~ [N)lt,:;, JA»JIJ\1 23, lOCl Figure B shows the rollercoastet ride interest rates have taken in the past 15 months. This makes accurace predictions of interest earnings very difficult. City funds have historically been invested at or above the 90-day Certificate of Deposit (CD) rate shown in Figure B. Figure C shows the various components of the General Fund Revenue received through December 30, 1980. About one-half of the revenue received in the first six months has come from sales and property taxes. This dependence on these two sources will increase to about 60% by year end. klu Tu. t,o~rc.y 'fa.1 Ut•r C~r,;11 • IMetc:.vutMt\tal kvt'Wt • OU·•t 'Tu.ta , 1Mtrtlt OPtltJ.TIM: l{'/[\".!t • 6 ~~"IS flSC.,L !O•SI l .2" llt m IOt ., ., . ,S• FIGURE C srAu er c.u.mMIA err/ or WlSllO 15,0 Kllllon colff~L e, ecwtRAt. ru.o 0fitM1'1N: l!Vf~'"J( ! ' ~¢-.irvs: tlSC1l 15so-81 77' • u.a 111111 .. 2l t "$1,2 Killion IS,O KIii ion Figure C also includes a chart showing the relatively small amount of control the City exercises over General Fund revenue. Only 23% of the total $5 Million revenue received through December is under direct City control. OTHER FUNDS -REVENUE Revenues in the sp-cial City funds fall into two categories: Operating and Capital. The operating funds such as gas tax and sanitation are receivi.ng revenues at the budgeted rate. There have been no significant increases or decreases in revenue flow. The capital fu11ds such as sewer construction, public facilities fees and park-in-li,;iu fees are ahead of the budgeted figures. Revenues received in the second quarter of this year are generally ahead of the first quarter as shown in Figure D. -4- Sewer Construct Ion 0 0 .... 0 0 "' .,, $287 0 'O 0 CN .. .. $196 :, .2'o ... ~ 1st 2 d Quarter 1980-81 FIGURED CO!IPARISOM OF FIRST AMO SECOND QUARTER 1980-81 REVEMUES FOR SELECTED FUMOS Park ln•LI eu Pub I le Facll ltles 0 0 0 $82 .... C0 0 0 0 'f' "' .,, "' $255 'O 0 'O co """ ..... .. .. "' :, .,. 0 0 .c Q .<: I-0 1-N -$23 1 t 2 d 1 t: 2" Qu.irter 19~i-a1 Quarter 1980•81 The revenue estimates for these funds have been adjusted as shown in Table I to reflect increased levels of activity. Information supplied by the engineering, planning and building departments, although not totally corralated, has been used to derive these new estimated revenues. SUMMARY -REVENUES The City's experience through December 31, 1980 suggests that thsre are no significant problems at this time. Reductions in revenues in .e:.ome categories have been off set by increases in others. Generally, development-related revenues have dominated the second qu~rter picture. The true economic impact of the lat,e December Holiday Season and high interest rates is still unknown at this time. Reliable figures will not be available until May, 1981. The City's position is currentl.y good and relatively close to previous estimates for most categories of revenue. The City's budget position has not i;ignificantly changed iu terms of operating revenuec;. Capital revem.H!S have accelerated this quarter which will improve the year end capital budget picture. - EXPENDITURES -1980-81 OVERVIEW The City's expenditure rate through December 31, 1980 is running below current budget projections. These savings appear in th1:ee major categories: 1) Salary -Savings -those dollars saved due to staff. turnover or delays in filling vacant positions, 2) Maintenance & Operation Savings -primarily d.J.e to delays in contracting for professional services, fi.llir,g vacant positions, and adopting a Capital Budget Progran1, 1) Capical -r~duced activity due to delay of Capital Budget Projects until mid year. For the General Fun<l, these savings may amount to as much as $400,000 by June 30, 1981. The total s~vings to all funds based upon the current rate of expenditure would be amcJnt $700,000 by year end. The Table below summarizes the current budget position. TABLE II 1980-81 Expenditures through 12-31-80 Fund Budget Anticip:ited Actual Revised Estimate (l) Expense Through Expense Through Budget Estimate 12-31-80 12-31-80 General $12,211,080 $5,490,000 $4,520,554 $11,800,000 Gas Tax 470,160 240,000 308,052 470,160 Sanitation 634,516 365,000 242,810 575,000 Sewer Con- struction 1,956,616 1,000,000 1,184,994 1,956,616 Revenue 805,000 Sharing 1,682,809 -0-4,826 1,682,809 P.F.F. -0--0--0--0- Park-In- Lieu 11,500 -0--0-11,500 Grants 994,553 500,000 386,214 994,553 Water 2,038,806 1,100,000 786,308 1,800,000 Other <2) 4381212 -0-287,286 4381212 TOTAL $20,438,252 $9,500,000 $7,721,044 $19,728,850 -(1) Current~ budget figures as of Decarber 31, 1980 prior to adoption of CIP. Capital Porjects in all funds will be reflected in the next quarterly report. (2) Includes Librar.y and Sewer Bond Debt Service aoo Street Lighting ftmds. GENERAL FUND OPERATING EXPENDITURES General Fund expenditures for the first six months of 1980-81 are slightly behind the original budget estimates. A savings of at least $400,000 should be realized if current trends continue (See Figure E). Table III summaries the expenditures through December, 1980. -6- 10 6 II 2. Category Salaries Haintenance & Operations Equipment 'IDI'F.L: Ope1·at:ing Exp • Capit:sl TlJrAL IDrEl:llSES : FIGURE E CENEAAL FUND 0PEltATIIIC EXP£NMTIJRtS 79•80 ACTIJALj 80°81 8UDCET 80°81 ACTUAL TABLE III 11,0 )rd General Fund Expenses Thru 12-31-80 1980-81 6-Mo 80-81 % Budget E~<:eense ExEense $ 6,180,442 $ 2,aos. 1114 45 4,294,569 1,642,8/iS 38 -1Q.l,951 68,4~ 14 $10,976,962 $4,516,886 41 1,2341118 31668 $1212111000 $ 4!520,554 -7- 79-80 6 Mo, Ex:eense Rate 49 48 41 48 The savings in operating expenses to date fall into three categories: Salaries, Maintenance & Operation, and Equipment. A description of each category is below: Salary Expense: Significant salary savings are being generated both by the time factor involved with filling additional budget authorized positions and a continued City-wide attrition rate of 5-7%. If these factors remain consistent throughout fiscal 80-81, the City should realize a salary savings in the General Fund of approximately $375,000. Maintenance & O~erations: The rate cf expenditures for maintenance and operations is significantly lower after six months of operations during 1980-81 than during 1979-80. This is attributable to expenditures lags in such areas as advanced planning -professional services: park mainte~ance and aquatics programs: non-departmental lease payments: retirement cost savings due to delays in hiring new employees: and decreases in expenditure rates for the fire suppresion, engineering and street maintenance departments. These factors account for a savings of approximately $375,000. An additional $130,000 of savings has been experienced due to the timing of posting expenses to the City books. This amount will be offset by year end. Equipment: Although the rate of expenditures for equipment purchases during 1~80-81 is significantly lower than 1979-80, this is specifically attributable to purchasing requirements and specifications relating to the acquisition of such items as a new fire truck costing $132,000 and 12 police patrol vehicles costing $90,000. The expenditure lag associated with capital equipment acquisition will adjust itself during the balance of fiscal year 1980-81. -8- Pobl le s~rcty FIGURE F ~'!tt.qr_cm}~.::P, ~AATrn~ [XPl~OITO~[S -~ ,o·.rns FISCi\t M•SI m 21t 16& l3t rarh i ft•cr .. tlon Llbr~ry &\ 7t .1 ., _.,_ $11, 5 Hll 1101 Figure F provides an analysis of the distribution of General Fund expenses between major functional categories. Public safety continues to be the major operation performed Ly the City with 35% of all expenditures. This includes the police, fire, and building departments. Other Funds The level of expc:mditures in the other f,unds comprlsl.ng the Cities' financial operations appear to be generally within their 1980-81 budgeted appropriations after six months of operations. However, the following maintenance and operation expenditure items are currently significantly beyond their appropriation limitations as of 12-31-80. Special Analysis Petroleum Products: Of a total 1980-81 budget of $126,908, $85,000, or o7%, has been expended during the first six months. This expenditure rate would result in an additional aoll'rouriation of $43,000 being required to fund the balance of 1980-81 patrolet1m product purchases. -9- Utility Expenses: Total 1980-81 appropriations in all funds for utility expenditures amounted to $448,787. At ~~e close of six months operations, $270,000, or 55% had been expended. Applying the projected 13% utility rate increase as of 1-1-81 to the balance of the fiscal year projected expenditures,additional appropriations of $86,000 will be required to fund the utility expenses of the City during 1980-81. Communications Er,enses: Approprilations £or 1980-81 communication expense total $6 ,834. $38,939, or 60%, had been expended during the first six months. However, only 5 months of communications expenses were r~flected in the six month expenditure totels. Projections of the remaining expenditures of 1980-81 indicat~ that coilllllunications expenses for 1980-81 will amount to approximately $93,500 requiring additional appropriations of $28,666 to cover these projected expenditures. Summary -Operating Expenditures General Fund operating ex~enditures totalled $4.5 Million, or 41% of total year appropriations, at the ~nd of the second quarter of fiscal 1980-81. This level of operating expenditures was significantly lower than the pace generated in 1979-80, when 48% of the total year appropriations had been expended at the end of the second quarter. The level of 1980-81 operating expenditures suggests that the City will realize a 6% salary savings of $375,000. Expenditure lags in maintenance and op~rations have been accounted for and we should anticipate increased level of maintenance and operating expenses during the balance of the fiscal year 80-81. With the exception of petroleum products, utility and communications expenses, the amounts appropriated should be sufficient to cover all operating expenditures during fiscal 80-81. -10- 1981-82 BUDGET PREVIEW. The City's budget position for 1981-82 is very uncertain due to fluctuating economic conditions and unclear direction from the State level. Fiscal 1981-82 will continue to be a very difficult year for budgetary decisio; markers. The brief preview 0£ 1981-82 included in this report should help establish some basic ground rules for preparing the budget for 1981-82. Ending Balances 1980-81. Based on the mid-year report, the City can expect to have a small surplus of funds by the end of 1980-81, The General Fund and other operating funds will have only minor carry-over balances. The capital funds such as the sewer construction fund, public facilities fund, and park-in-lieu fund should have larger than estimated ending balances. The chart below gives a summary of the June 30, 1981, position. TABLE I YEAR-END BALANCES JUNE 30, 1981' BUDGET POSITION (Million Dollars) Ftmd General 2 Gas Tax Sanitation Sewer Constvuction Revenue Sharing Public Facilities Fee Park-In-Lieu Grants Water Other TOTAL Original 1980-81 Budget $1.7 (0. 2) o. 7 0.1 1Assuming all capital project funds continued into 1981-82. Revised Estimate1 12-30-80 $2.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.6 _Q_d_ $5.5 ~ppropriated Revised Estimate over (under) Original Budget $0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 $1.4 during 1980-81 will 2 rncludes General Operating and Capital Reserves. These funds can be allocated by Council to capital projects or operating needs, -11- be ,, '. ' REVENUES 1981-82 The City's revenue position for 1981-82 is very uncertain. The primary problem in predicting next year's revenue lies with the State and its control over the bailout assistance program instituted after Proposition 13, and the amount due the City under various State subventions. The State has indicated that if its budget shortfall is sufficiently large, the bailout assistance and various subventions will disappear. This action could result in a $1.5 million revenue loss for Carlsbad. Revenues for different City funds must be estimated in different ways. For example, the General Fund revenue can be approximated by using a per capita calculation, where sewer construction revenue must be estimated on the basis of the number of Equivalent Dwelling Units (EDU's) to be sold during 1981-82. Table II gives a broad ,icture of how revenues could be received. Fund General Gas Tax Sanitation Sewer Construction Revenue Sharing Public Facilities Fee Park-In-Lieu Grants Water Other TOTAL TABLE II REVENUE ESTIMA'!:ES 1981-82 (Million Dollars) 1980-81 1981-82 1981-82 Estimated Estimated Estimated Revenue Revenue Revenue Less State Subventions $10.8 $12.8 $11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.8 2.8 0,2 0.2 0.2 0,8 0.8 0.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 $17.0 $2,1,4 $20.2 Comments Based on 1981-82 population of 38,900 Based on past three years revenue history Based on fee for service. Increase may be needed in 81-82. 1000 EDU @$1,000 ea. (per Engineering) Current entitlement of $110,000 per quarter plus interest Estimated used in CIP Will be adjusted wHh new Sedway-Cooke rpt. Based on current development activity. Support of HUD/HCD programs No rate increase, current.service level Bond pmts, street lighting revenue must support expenses If the State decides to recoup its budget losses by reducing bailout funds or subventions, the General Fund stands to lose as much as ?1.5 million (see Table III). Although it is unlikely that the State will remove all subventions, a sizeable reduction should be anticipated. Losses in the $700,000 to $1.2 million range should be expected. The third column on Table II reflects a reduction of $1.2 million in General Fund due to loss of State bailout and subventions. TABLE III MAJOR STATE SUBVENTIONS 1981-82 BUDGET State Bailout Assistance Motor Vehicle in Lieu Fees Alcohol Beverage License Fees Cigarette Tax Expenditures 1981-82 $715,000 600,000 20,000 155,000 $1,490,000 The expenditure level for 1981-82 will be dependant upon the City's revenue picture. Since the operating funds have little or no reserves to carry them into 1981-82, all operstions should be covered by current revenue generated during the year. General Fund The current revenue estimate for operating funds will allow the City to maintain current services, but will make it difficult to enter into any new programs. The estimated revenue in the General Fund of $12.8 million is 18% above the current year's revenue of $10.8 million. If expenditures of $12.8 million are budgeted fo~ 1981-82, a reserve of about $400,000 (or about 3%) will remain at year's end. The 1980-81 estimated general fund expenditures of $11.1 million can increase by $1.7 million, or about 15.3% to $12.8 million in 1981-82. Assuming an inflation rate of 12% for 1981-82, about $1.3 million of these available funds will be eaten up by general cost increases. This leaves about $400,000 for development of new programs (see Figure G,,on the next page). -13- -r FIGURE G .. ""l'lC\1·~, l_ fund ...!l!'.d-!!tU'..<!\ill.£!L ~t:!£ [:] ' 1930-81 (Estlrotcd Expend I tun•s) $12,8 S0,4 • Growth __ $1.3 Inflation 1981-82 (llo Revenue reductions) 1981-82 (Less $1.2 llil, in Slate subventions) If the State pulls $1.2 million away from City revenues, the picture is totally different. The City will only have $11.6 million av~ilable in current revenue. Using a bala~ced budget approach, the City would only be able to spend $11.6 million Olf $500,000 more than will be spent in 1980-81. Just to keep up with inflation, the Operating Bud$et would have to increase by $1.3 million. Limiting departments to a ~500,000 increase from 1980-81 to 1981-82 would mean some reductions in service or economies in other areas would have to be developed. OTHER OPERATING FUNDS Many City funds are dependant upon fees or assessments to provide their operating revenue. In each case, the City must set charges, fees or rates every few years to keep up with service requirements or inflation. During 1981-82, most funds will be able to set new a~~essments or exist upon established rate structures. The Sanitation Fund should be watched closely. Figure Hon the next page shows the current history for the Sanitation Fund. By the end of 1980-81, this fund will have little or no reserves to fall back upon during 1981-82. Unless a significant number of sewer connections are added during 1981-82, this fund may be in a deficit position by year end. A rate study is called for during the reamining part of 1980-81 to ensure a satisfactory budget position for this fund. -14- ,-: I 'O M" " :l: " 0 "" ,~ ~ N" .,, FIGURE H g_l)_i_latlon f11nd Revenues ~ncl r,pcnd i t11r_£~ 79-70 lo 81-82 "•-.. Ending rund Oalancc ...... 79-80 ..... ....... ·,. 80-81 .. 81-82 The water fu.~d remains in good position for 1981-82. No special concern is necessary for the fiscal position of this fund. CAPITAL FUNDS The City's capital funds are in a good position for the end of 1980-81. The second quarter report indicates higher than anticipated revenues in the sewer construction, Park-in-Lieu and public facilities funds. These positions will benefit from the carry-over balances for 1981-82. -15-