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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1982-05-11; City Council; 5642-1; Presentation on Draft Regional Energy Plan Update{ J CITl�F CARLSBAD — AGENDA SILL AB# TITLE -PRESENTATION ON DRAFT REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE. CITY ATTY DEPT. CM CITY MGR. RECOMMENDED ACTION: Hear presentation by representative .from SANDAG. No action required at this time. SANDAG is seeking Review & Comment. ITEM EXPLANATION: SANDAG has distributed the Draft Regional Energy Plan Update for review. Steve Sachs from SANDAG will make a brief presentation on the report and respond to questions. EXHIBIT: Draft Regional Energy Plan Update, Executive summary. -'on file in Library and in city Clerk's Office. O 4 z f DRAFT REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY APRIL, 1982 San Diego ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS Suite 524'Security Pacific Plaza 1200 Third Avenue San Diego, California 92101 t114i 236.5300 fThis report was financed with federal funds from the U.S. Department of Transportation, state funds from the y ± California Energy Commission and local funds from - SANDAG member jurisdictions. .c _c ,I :f .f MEMBER AGENCIES. Ciu9s of Carlstiod, Chula Vista, Curuiadu, Doi Mai, L, Cajun. Impeual Beach, La Mesa, Lemurs Giuve, NaUuual Cay.Oceanside. Poway, San Diego, San Maru)s, Santee and 'Vista • ADV ISO Y MLMBLRS Calctuuua Uep�rtmeal of transpuc tenon acui ttluanaiBalB Cahfouua Nucta 1 DRAFT REGIONAL EYMW PLAN UPDATE EXECUPIVE Stn'44MARY The Draft Regional Energy Plan Update has been prepared to help m°`t the following energy planning and programming needs in the San Diego region: o Provide basic information about the current and future energy situation in the region which can be understood, agreed upon and used by public agencies and the private sector in decision -making. o Develop consensus among all segments -)f the region on a policy direction and strategy for coping wits energy issues and -problems. o Monitor, communicate and coordinate the plans and actions of local public agencies, energy suppliers, private sector consumers and the state and federal governments to help ensure that these separate actions are not duplicative and take advantage of already existing resources. o Develop specific recaimendations for energy actions which can be implemented by kcal public or private sector groups or can be requested of the state and federal governments. The SANBAG Board of Directors appointed a 36 member advisory coimittee -- the Regional Energy Task Force — to work with SANDAG staff in developing the Plan b date. The Task Force was chaired by City of Vista Councilman and SAMG Hoard member Michael Flick and included representatives -of local government staffs, professional groups involved in energy supply and conservation, SDG&E, citizen and business interest groups, and state and federal energy agenciez. The Task Force met monthly between July, 1981 and April, 1982. The Plan consists of this Executive Smmmary and five chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 contain introductory and background information on the region's energy situation. Chapter 3 contains energy issues for the region and recatmended Goals and Policies. Chapters 4 and 5 contain a recommended Overall Energy Strategy for the region and specific Implementation Recommendations to carry out the strategy. Technical appendices are contained in a separate report. 'the Plan emphasizes non -transportation energy (natural gas and electricity supply and conservation). The Policies and P,ecammendations of the 1980 Regional Transportation Energy Plan are incorporated in the Regional Energy Plan L►pdate and transpor- tation sector cost and energy data are updated from the 1980 Plan. The Draft Regional Energy Plan has been distributed for review by local governments, other organizations responsible for implementation actions 1- ) reLa mended in the Plan (for example, SDG&E, Chamber of Commerce), and groups who might be affected by the Plan proposals. During the review ^Priod:NSANDAG,member agencies will be asked' to, adopt, the Goals, Policies r= and-Ovetall Energy Strategy in,,the Draft .Plan'., and to' _agree to;pursue the specific implemnentation,actions reommmended for them, -'subject to availability of funds .to carry out the "teixinendations. Organizations which are not SANDAG member agencies will also be asked to agree to pursue the specific implementation actions that are recommended as their responsibility in the Plan. Following review and member agency adoption action, mod?.fications will be made to thc, Draft Plan and a Final Plan will be submitted for SANDAG Board of Directors adoption. If the Board adopts the Regional Energy Plan Update, SANG will initiate the implementation process by notifying responsible organizations of the actions that are recommended for them in the adopted Pla-i. Each agency will be asked to identify existing funds or potential financing sources. SANbAG will assist organizations in this task, if requested. At the same time, SA MAG will pursue the initiation of an energy financing advisory group for the region with SDG&E, local governments, businesses, industries and general public interest groups as recommended in the overall Energy Strategy. 'Ibis action is a critical one because it should contri- bute to the development of financing mechanisms to carry out many of the implementation recommendations. The Draft Regional Energy Plan Update Goals, Policies, overall Energy Strategy and Implementation Recommendations are summarized in the remainder of the Executive Summary. Goals 1. Ensure that the region's energy demand is based on the most efficient use of energy possible and that energy supplies are reliable and sufficient to meet the economic and social goals identified in the Regional Comprehensive Plan. 2. Minimize the energy expenditures of the region's households, busi- nesses, industries and public agencies. 3. Minimize negative environmental effects of supplying and using energy. 4. Minimize the consumption of non-renewable resources in supplying and using energy. Policies Energy costs, Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources 1. Reduce energy consumption and energy costs in local public agency buildings and operations. 2. Evaluate local public agency energy source development and pursue projects that are cost effective. 3. Encourage or require cost-effective energy saving measures, to be installed in pre-1975 housir,.i, where feasible, and support state energy efficiency requiremenro, in new housing. 4. Encourage or require cost-effect.N;,e energy saving measures and use of alternative energy sources by husir;;sses and industries. Electricity 1. Support efforts to diversify the electricity generating measures being seriously pursued for the region, with emphasis or. control of supplies by entities within the region, using more inexpensive fuels to generate power and initiating development of additional alternative energy sources as part of the region's electicity resource plan. 2. Encourage and assist efforts to use waste heat from electricity generation to provide additional energy for industrial, commercial and residential use. Vehicle Fuels (From the Regional Transportation Energy Plan adopted by the SANAAG Board in September, 1980.) 1. Energy Conservation - Transportation energy requirements should be minimized by government support for the planning, programming, and implementation of transportation services, facilities and land use configurations which conserve energy. 2. Energy Planning - Transportation improvements with positi%-: energy impacts should be given high priority in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program. 3. Energy Technology - The region should support federal, state, and private industry efforts to improve vehicle fuel efficiency (includes trucks and buses). 4. Energy Contingency - The preparation and maintenance of energy con- tingency plans to minimize the impacts of a shortage should be given high priority. Coordination 1. Ensure that local energy conservation, alternative energy source and energy supply develorrnent programs support, and are coordinated with, private sector, public utility and state and federal energy programs and projects that are consistent with the goals and policies of the Regional. Energy Plan. 3 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region 1. Give first priority to energy conservation and solar energy tech- nologies which reduce the demand for electricity and natural gas. These technologies are the most cost-effective ways to control consumer energy costs and can reduce dependence on uncertain sources of energy outside the region which drain money from the local economy. Conservation and passive solar space heating and cooling for existing and new homes and commercial and industrial concerns is emphasized in this part of the Strategy. 2. Pursue a diversity of additional electricity generating technologies for the region in order to meet electricity demand growth and reduce the amount of electricity generated with oil and gas. These generating technologies include local sources like solid waste, wind, photo- voltaic cells and cogeneration as well as large scale, region serving technologies like geothermal and coal. 3. Develop a cooperative financing strategy for carrying out the first two parts of the Strategy described above. Time development of the financing strategy should involve SDG&E, local governments and citi- zen and business groups. Implementation of the recommended Overall Energy Strategy will result in "independent" energy producers (hcma- owners, businesses, industries and public agencies) having as much responsibility as the utility for meeting growth in energy demand between 1982 and 2000. These "independent" producers are also the consumers who pay the costs of utility -organized energy supply. Mutual understanding, support and cooperation cwiNny the "independent" producers and the utility, especially in developing a financing program, is essential to successfully carrying out the Strategy. 4. Responsible agencies should put increased emphasis or. evaluating and implementing ways to save energy in the transportation sector. Transportation_ is one of the largest energy using sectors in the region. However, existing and planned local conservation efforts will have only a minor impact on oonswnption. Therefore, additional effort should be expended on developing ways to reduce transportation energy consumption and costs in the region. If fully imkolemented, the overall Energy Strategy has the potential to says about 40% of annual natural gas consumption and 17% of annual electricity consumption in 1990 and 2000. The recommended Overall Energy Strategy also has the potential to meet growth in peak electricity generation capacity needs and almost completely eliminate the need for expensive oil and natural gas fired electricity generation. Transpor- tation tactics incorporated from the ,''.980 Regional Transportation Energy Plan Recommendations can save 38 to 5% of annual motor vehicle fuel consumption. This Overall Energy Strategy could result in estimated net ronsumer savings of over $9 billion (1982 constant dollars) between now and 2000. This is about 12% of the total estimated consumer energy bill for this 18-year period. Direct energy costs (electricity, natural gas and gasoline) are estimated to total about 15% of per cdpita disposable income in this period. ple1_ementation Reooumendations There are over 50 implementation recctmendations contained in Chapter 5. The major areas where the Draft Plan makes specific implementation recarmendations for local governments and other organizations are listed below: Conservation and Solar • Conservation in new housing (1981 Revised State Residential Building Code) o Conservation in existing housing o Conservation in new and existing non-residential buildings o Street light conversions to sodium vapor o Water conservation and reclamation (adopted Regional Plans) Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings an6 new construction o solar domestic water heating in existing housing and aolar pool heating o Land use and transportation planning to take advantage of oppor- tunities to increase energy efficiency (e.g., clustering of appro- priate land uses for cogeneration, high density housing adjacent to transit facilities) Electricity Generation o Nuclear - No further action on nuclear development using present technology should be considered. The short term safety and long term environmental problems associated with thf: present technology are major barriers to increased implementation. qt,aqx� hay -;— may be overcane by future technology. In light of the p' tential operational uncertainties of the present technology, investment in more reliable technologies is preferably: given the approximately 15% to 20% contribution of San Onofre Units 1, 2 and 3 to 1990 and 2000 electric consumption. o Coal - SDG&E should initiate, and local governments should support, action to preserve SDG&E's options for participation in future electricity generation development at the Blythe site (currently owned by SDG&E) using coal technology or some other proven, eco- monically competitive and environmentally acceptable alternative. o Purchased Poser, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Solid Waste Conversion, Photovoltaics, Windpower ai0 Small Hydroelectric Generation Projects should be actively pursued and supported by SDG&E, local governments, and businesses and industries. o Biomass, Solar Thermal, Ocean Thermal, Wave Power and Solar Ponds - These technologies should be considered technologies for further evaluation, but no significant financial conmitment should be made at this time. Jemonstrations of Solar Thermal and Ocean Thermal technologies shout" continue to be monitored. A study of Biomass nnomv �n+� thn Car. r.:.-...n ......2.+.. �`�t�«-• - - - --�-CU aetermxne the resource potential and economic and environmental feasibility of this energy source. SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMFNPATION RECCrfMUMATIONS FOR LOCAL GOVERMENTS I. CONSERVATION AND SOLAR New Construction o Local governments should ensure that local building officials are adequately trained through existing state and professional associa- tion sponsored seminars to assist builders in meeting energy effi- cient building standards and -hat adequate staffing exists to carry out an effective inspection and enforcement program. `bis should include participation in existing efforts to provide flexible and simple designs and requirements through which the energy saving standards of the state code can be met. o Local governments should remove barrier, to solar water and space heating systems from zoning codes and other development regulations. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. o Local governments should L.corporate site and building design criteria or standards into development regulations which will allow the op- portunity for solar water and passive space heating in new buildings. Local plannars should be adequately trained so they can assist developers in meeting solar site design requirements and so they canenforce the requirements. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. o Local governments should require or encourage legal guarantees to solar access in new developmrt. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. o Local governments should adopt minimum design standards for active solar water heaters. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. Existing BuildimLs o Local governments should support statewide legislation that would require cost-effective "weatherization" of existing residential structures similar to the SANDAG model weatherization ordinance pre- pared in 1980-81. (AB 781 is currently being considered in the State Legislature.) If statewide legislation is not adopted in 1982, local governments should adopt local weatherization ordinances, which require installation of cost-effective weatherization devices at time of sale. o Local aovernments should evaluate requiring energy audits and/or installation of conservation hardware at time of sale for existing non-residential buildings. The evaluation should be undertaken by SWAG in cooperation with SDG&E and the San Diego Chamber of Commerce Energy Task Force and other interested parties. o Local governments should develop legal guarantees to reasonable solar access in existing developments when, solar space and water heaters are installed in existing residential and non-residential development. SANDAL should provide technical assistance. o Local governments should monitor the municipal solar utility (MSU) program in Oceanside and the City of San Diego's proposed MSU program design. If these programs prove successful, expansion to other localities and administrative coordination should be evaluated. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. Enemy Efficient Street Lights o Local governments in the northern half of the county should convert street lights to low pressure sodium vapor (LPSV) lamps, except at intersections with traffic lights where conversion to high pressure sodium vapor (HPSV) lamps may be required `or distinguishing colors. LPSV tights have the least light pollution impact on Palomar Ob- servatory, which is directly affected by street lighting in North County. Local governments in the southern half of the county should convert street lights to either LPSV or HPSV. Local govern- ments should require installation of new street lights to be LPSV or HOSV, as recommended above. Water Conservation and Reclamation o Responsible state and local agencies should implement the water conservation programs reccamnded in the Water Conservation Plan for the San_Diego Region adopted by the SANDAG Board in June 1981, and the water reclamation projects listed in the "Areawide Water Quality Management Plan, Water Resources Element," also adopted by the SANDAG Board in June 1981. Land Use and Transportation Planning for Energy Efficiency o Local governments should periodically evaluate their land use and transportation planning program to ensure that policies, plans and plan implementation procedures encourage development to take advantage of opportunities for increase energy efficiency. SANDAG should pro- vide technical assistance. II. ELECTRIC GENERATION Cogeneration (Gas Turbines, Piston Engines, and Fuel Cells) o Public agencies should evaluate installation of cogeneration plants at promising buildings and facilities through feasibility studies. o Local governments should require consideration of cogeneration in environmental impact reports on large scale, high density developments such as residential condominiums, office buildings, shopping centers and industrial parks. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. Solid Waste Resource P.ecover9 o The City and County of San Diego, with the cooperation of other local governments and SDG&E, should proceed with site selection and financing of the SANDER solid waste to energy project. If possible, a site should be selected where the SANDER electric generation plant could cogenerate steam. o As development and operating experience is -gained with SANDER, the region's Solid Waste Management Program should study the feasibility of other solid waste to energy projects. o The region's Solid Waste Management Program should continue to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expanded solid waste reduction and recycling programs and implement them when economically feasible. Photovoltaic Electric Generation Systems o Local governments should evaluate the solar access requirements for distri',uted photovoltaic systems and incorporate them in evaluation and implementation of the solar site design and so-_.: access recommendations. SANDAG should provide technical assistance. Wind Electric Generating Systems o Local governments, SDG&E, Indian tribes and other interested groups should complete the current CEC contract for specific site analysis for wind.electric generation systeT s. Funds should be sought for analysis of additional specific sites. o The County of San Diego should continue to develop regulations to govern the construction of safe wind energy systems which have controlled environmental impacts. Small Hydroelectric Power o Local public agencies should continue to evaluate the feasibility of and implement small hydroelectric generation in local water supply and treatment facilities. Biomass, Solar Thermal, ocean Thermal, Wave Power and Solar Ponds o Local public agencies should continue to evaluate and implement methane recovery from land fills and wastewater treatment facilities. III. ENERGY CONSERVATION AND SUPPLY FINANCING o SDG&E, local governments, citizens and businesses should cooperate in evaluating the innovative financing mechanisms for conservation, solar and electric generation technologies. A financing strategy involving capital development and debt structure from utility, i local governments, businesses, industries and households, and involving utility rates as they impact other factors, should ; evolve and be carried out through private financial markets and the Public Utilities Commission. o In order to develop the financing strategy, SDG&E should initiate l and support an -energy financing advisory group including representatives of local government, business, industry, and the general public. This group would identify financing issues and develop ideas and recc mendations for implementation by SDG&E and the PUC, local governments, and others. IV. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY o Responsible transportation planning and implementing agencies should put increased emphasis on evaluating ways to save energy, and recommendations for implementation should be made as part of SANDAG Transportation Plan updates. r� 9 u DRAFT REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE APRIL, 1982 San Diego ASSOCIATION OF G0V4-RNMENTS Suite 624 Security Pacific Plaza 1200 Third Avenue San Diego,.Califomia 92101 (714) 236.5300 This report was financed with federal funds from the ( U.S. Department of Transportation, state funds from the i California Energy Commission and local funds from SANDAG member, jurisdictions. •far`f MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Cnule Vista, Colorado, Del Mar, El Cajon, Imperial Beach, La Moss, Lemon Grove. National City, Oceanside, Poway, Sen Diego, San Marco;, Santee and Vista • ADVISORY MEMBERS California Department of Transportation and Tijuana/Baja Calltomia Norte 1 tom; -_1' Board of Directors SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is a voluntary public agency formed by local governments to assure overal: areawide planning and coordination for the San Diego region. Voting members include the Incorporated Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar, FI Cajon, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside, Poway, San Diego, San Marcos, Santee, and Vista. Advisory members include the State of California, through a memorandum of understanding with the California Department of Transportation. The Mayor of the City of Tijuana, Baja California; Mexico, is an honorary member of SANDAG. CHAIRMAN: George Bailey VICE CHAIRWOMAN: Harriet Stockwell SECRETARY —EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Richard J, Huff CITY OF CARLSBAD Mary Casler, Vice Mayor (A) Ronald C. Packard, Mayor CITY OF CHULA VISTA Greg Cox, Mayor (A) Frank Scott, Councilman CITY OF CORONADO Hobert G. Odiorne, Mayor Pro Tem (A) Lois Ewen, Councilwoman CITY OF DEL MAR Lou Terrell, Mayor (A) Richard Roe, Mayor Pro Tem CITY OF EL CAJON Harri,:t Stockwell, Councilwoman (A) C. Dan Conaway, Councilman CITY OF IMPERIAL BEACH Brian P. Bilbray, Mayor (A) John B. Bennett, Councilman CITY OF LA MESA George Bailey, Mayor (A) Fred Nagel, Councilman (A) Jerri Lopez, Councilwoman CITY OF LEMON GROVE Jack Doherty, Councilman (A) James V. Dorman, Mayor (A) Lois Heiserman, Councilwoman CITY OF NATIONAL CITY Jess E. Van Deventer, Vice Mayor (A) J. Louis Carnacho, Councilman ii CITY OF OCEANSIDE Lawrence M. Bagley; Mayor (A) Melba Bishop, Councilwoman CITY OF POWAY Robert Emery, Mayor (A) Clyde Rexrode, Councilman CITY OF SAN DIEGO Susan Golding, Councilwoman (A) Ed Struiksma, Councilman CITY OF SAN MARCOS Robert Harman, Mayor (A) F. H. (Corky) Smith, Councilman CITY OF SANTEE Roy Woodward, Councilman (A) E. T. "Woodie" Miller, Vice Mayor CITY OF VISTA R. Michael ;Mike) Flick, Mayor Pro Tem (A) Lloyd Von Haden, Councilman STATE DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION (Ex Off icio Member) Adriana Gianturco, Director (A) Russ Lightcap, District Director TIJUANA, B. CFA (Honorary Member) Roberto Andrade Salazar, Mayor — Rev1W January 1982 — Li J P41 s;T•t�li TITLE: Draft Regional Energy Plan Update AUTiiOR: San Diego Association of Governments SUBJECT: Energy Goals, Policies, Strategy and Implementation Actions for the Region DATE: April 1982 SOURCE OF COPIES: San Diego Association of Goverlmhts 1200 Third Avenue, Suite 524 San Diego, CA 92101 NUMBER OF PAGES: 73 ABSTRACT: The Draft Regional Energy Plan provides information about the present airs :future energy situation for the San Diego region. The Draft Plan identifies energy issues for the region, and re- commends Goals, Policies, an Overall Energy Strategy, and Specific '.echnology Implementation actions for local. govern- ments and other organizations. The energy, •economic and envirwimental .iri- pacts of carrying out thes% recommenda- tions are described and evaluated. iii AC1W%1EDG94EN1S The Draft Regional Energy Plan was prepared with the advice and assistance of the Regional Energy Task Force appointed by the San Diego Association of Governments Board of Directors. The Task Force membership consisted of: R. Michael Flick, Councilman, City of Vista SANDAG Board of Directors Jim Hagan -an, Planning Director Carlsbad } Tan Dyke, Building Department Chula Vista ! Mike Bouse, Senior Building Insiector Coronado Bill Healy, Planning Director Del Mar r Robert Acker, Acting City Manager E1 Cajon Gene Bai-lund, Building Department Imperial Beach Chuck Bras, City Manager's Office La Mesa Jack Shelver, City Manager Ienoh Grove t t Arthur S. Thanpson, Crocker National Bank National City Todd Argow, City Manager's Office Oceanside James Bowersox, City Manager Poway Herb Case, Planning Director Santee { Ray. Green, Director of Building & Safety San Marcos Ruth Ann Fahey, Energy Coordinator City of San Diego Cindy Adams, City Manager's Office Vista Mike Sloop, Energy Office County of San Diego Peggy Fairbrook, Solar Division California Energy Commission Dick Nolan Department of Energy Pat Flemming, Regional Governmental Affairs San Diego Gas & Electric David Durkin, Executive Director California Public Interest Research Group Gregory M. Brown American Institute of Architects [ John R. O'Boyle California Solar Energy } Industries Assn. John W. Titanas, Director, Utilities U. S. Navy _. Engineering/Conservation Branch, Navy Public Work.- Center y Ed Hasselman American Society of Mechanical Engineers Dr.•Alan R. Sweedler SDSU Center for Energy Studies Mac Buc S.D. Chamber of Canmerce Jerilyn Hirshberg Citizens Coordinate `or Century III Marge Moss League of Warren Voters ' Jeff Smith Sierra Club Robert R. Miller, Manager, Plant Rehr Industries, Inc. Engineering & Energy Management Paul J. Kcpcha Solar Turbines International Dick Smith American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air ! Conditioning Engineers Dr. Anthony-V. Sebald U SD Energy Center : 4 Zoe Muller Construction Industry Federation: The following staff of the San Diego Association of Go�mrrvnents participated in the Plan development: Stuart R. Shaffer, Associate Director for Land Use and Public Facilities Lee Hultgren, Associate Director for Transportation Stev4 Sachs, Senior Regional Planner, Project Manager The San Diego Assoclatiai of Governments was assisted in preparing technical u information for the Plan by the San Diego State University Cent.er for Energy Studies headed by Dr. Alan R. Sweedler. 'r i f t 3 iv M Page EXECUTIVESUMMARY ....................................... 3 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ................ 11 CHAPTER 2 PRESENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SITUATION ......... 17 CHAPTER 3 REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES, GOALS AND POLICIES................................... 35 CHAPTER 4 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THEREGION ................................. 45 CHAPTER 5 SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY IMPLE— MENTATION RECOMMENDATIONS .................. 65 APPENDIX A DATA AND SOURCES — Separate Report APPENDIX B TECHNOLOGY EVALUATIONS v 1 7 r-+ LISP OF FIGURES Page Figure 1-1 San Diego Regional Energy Flow, 1980 ............ 19 Figure 1-2 San Diego Regional Energy Flow, 1990 ............ 21 Figure 1-3 San Diego Regional Energy Flow, 2000 ............ 23 Figure 1-4 Electricity Generating Resources and Annual Demand, 1980-2000 ........................ 25 Figure 1-5 Electricity Generation Resources and Peak Demand, 1980-2000 .......................... 27 Figure 1-6 Impacts of Existing Conservation and Solar Programs, 1980-2000 ....................... 29 Figure 1-7 Average Energy Price Forecasts, 1980-2000 ....... 31 Figure 4-1 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Economic Summary, 1982-2000 ............ 55 Figure 4-2 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Potential Impacts of Conser- vation and Solar Technologies for Natural Gas ..................................... 57 Figure 4-3 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Potential Impacts of Conser- vation and Solar Technologies for Electricity ..................................... 58 Figure 4-4 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Potential Impacts of Conser- vation and Solar Technologies for Peak Electric Demand ............................ 59 Figure 4-5 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Potential Impacts of Conser- vation, Solar and Electric Generation Technologies for Peak Electric Demand ........... 60 Figure 4-6 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Potential Impacts of Conser- vation for Motor Vehicle Fuels .................. 61 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 4-1 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Summary of Te.',mlogy Evaluations, Conservation and Solar ............. Table 4-2 Overall Energy Strategy for the Region - Summary of Technology Evaluations, Electric Generation ................ Table 4-3 San Diego Regional Transportation , Energy Plan, Conservation Objective ............. Table 4-4 San Diego Regional Transportation Energy Plan, -Emergency Contingency Objective ....................................... 64 U U vii Page 5o 51 52 52 k b G EXECUrIVE SLHIARY The Draft Regional Energy Plan Update has been prepared to help meet the following energy planning and programming needs in the San Diego region: 1,4 o Provide basic information about the current and future energy situation in the region which can be understood, agreed upon and used by public agencies and the private sector in decision -making. o Develop consensus among all segments of the region on a policy direction and strategy for coping with energy issues and problems. o Monitor, mmmunicate and coordinate the plans and actions of local public agencies, energy suppliers, private sector consumers and the state and federal governments to help ensure that these separate actions are not duplicative and take advantage of already existing resources. o Develop specific reco mendations for enerai actions which can be implemented by local public or private sector groups or can be i i} requested of the state and federal governments. The SANMG Board of Directors appointed a 36 member advisory conmittee the Regional Energy 'task Force -- to work with SANDAG staff in developing the Plan Update. The Task Force was chaired by City of Vista Councilman a-d SANDAG Board member Michael Flick and included representatives of vocal government staffs, professional groups involved ;} in energy supply and conservation, SDG&E, citizen and business interest groups, and state and federal energy agencies. The Task Force met monthly between July, 1981 and April, 1982. The Plan consists of this Executive Su many and five chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 contain introductory and background information on the region's energy situation. Chapter 3 contains energy issues for the region and reccxnrended Goals and Policies. Chapters 4 and 5 contain a recommended Overall Energy Strategy for the region and specific Implementation Recommendations endations to carry out the strategy. Technical appendices are } contained in a separate report. The Plan emphasizes non -transportation +� energy (natural gas and electricity supply and conservation). The Policies and Reco mendations of the 1980 Regional Transportation Energy !t Plan are incorporated in the Regional Ener;_► Plan Update and transpor- tation sector cost and energy data are updated from the 1980 Plan. It is reccmmended that the SANDAG Board accept the Draft Regional Energy Plan for distribution and review by local governments, other organiza- 3 AMS tions responsible for implementation actions recommended in the Plan (for example, SDG&E, Chamber of Commerce), and groups who might be affected by the Plan proposals. During the review period SANDAG member agencies will be asked to adopt the Goals, Policies and Overall Energy Strategy in the Draft Plan, and to agree to pursue the specific implementation actions recommended for them, subject to availability of funds to carry out the recommendations. Organizations which are not SANDAG member agencies will also be asked to agree to pursue the specific implementation actions that are recommended as their responsibility in the Plan. FoDawing review and member agency adoption action, modifications will be made to the Draft Plan and a Final Plan will be submitted for SANDAG Board of Directors adoption. If the Hoard adopts the Regional Energy Plan Update, SANDAG staff will " initiate the implementation process by notifying responsible organizations of the actions that are recommended for them in the adopted Plan. Each agency will be asked to identify existing funds or potential fincuicing sources. SANDAG will assist organizations in this task, if requested. �- At the same time, SANDAG will pursue the initiation of an energy financing advisory group for the region with SDG&E, local governments, businesses, _2 industries and general public interest groups as recommended in the Overall Energy Strategy. 7his action is a critical one because it should oontri w bute to the development of financing mechanisms to carry out many of the implementation re=m*rAations. 7he Draft Regional Energy Plan Update Goals, Policies, Overall Energy Strategy and Implementation Recommendations are summarized in the remainder of the Executive Sanwry. Goals 1. Ensure that the region's energy demand is based on the most efficient use of energy possible and that energy supplies are reliable and sufficient to -meet the economic and social goals identified in the Regional Comprehensive Plan. 2. Minimize the energy expenditures of the region's households, busi- nesses, industries and public agencies. "•� 3. Minimize negative environmental effects of supplying and using energy. #I 3 4. Minimize the consumption of non-renewable resources in supplying and using energy. f Policies Energy Costs, Enercly Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources 1. Reduce energy consumption and energy costs in local public agency { e buildings and operations. 1 2. Evaluate local public agency energy source development and pursue projects that are cost effective. 3. Encourage or require cost-effective energy saving measures, to be installed in pre-1975 housing, where feasible, and support state energy efficiency requirements in new housing. ) 4. Encourage or require cost-effective energy saving measures rand use of alternative energy sources by businesses and industries. Electric 1. Support efforts to diversify the electricity generating measures being seriously pursued for the region, with emphasis on control of supplies by entities within the region, using more inexpensive fuels °U! to generate power and initiating development of additional alternative ( energy sources as part of the region's electivity resource plan. 2. Encourage and assist efforts to use waste heat from Qlectricity generation to provide additional energy for industrial, cannercial and residential use. Vehicle Fuels (Fran the Regional Transportation Energy Plan adopted by the SANDAiG Bcq rd in September, 1980.) 1. Energy Conservation - Transportation energy requirements should be minimized by government support for the planning, programming, and implementation of transportation services, facilities and land_ use configurations which conserve energy. 2. Energy Planning - Transportation improvements with positive energy impacts should be given high priority in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program. 3. Energy Technology -- The region, should support federal, state, and private industry efforts to improve vehicle fuel efficiency (includes j� trucks and buses). 4. Energy Contingency - The preparation and maintenance of energy con- tingency plans to minimize the impacts of a shortage should be given high priority. Coordination 1. Ensure that local energy conservation, alternative energy source �} a;O energy supply development programs support, and are coordinated with, private sector, public utility and state and federal energy programs and projects that are consistent with the goals and policies of the Regional Energy Plan. 14 �i Overall Energy Strategy for the Region 1. Give first priority to energy conservation and solar energy tech- nologies which reduce the demand for electricity and natural gas. These technologies are the most cost-effective ways to control consumer energy costs and can reduce dependence cn uncertain sources of energy outside the region which drain _ m`ney from the local economy. Conservation and passive solar space heating and cooling for existing and new bomes and commercial and industrial concerns is emphasized in this part of the Strategy. r- 2. Pursue a diversity of additional electricity generating technologies for the region in order to meet electricity demand growth and reduce the amount of electricity generated with oil and gas. These generating "I r technologies include local sources like solid -waste, wind, photo- voltaic cells and cogeneration as well as large scale, region serving technologies like geothermal and coal. 3. Develop a cooperative financing strategy for carrying out the first two parts of the Strategy described above. The development of the financing strategy should involve SDG&E, local governments and citi- zen and business groups. Implementation of the re -commended overall Energy Strategy will result in "independent" energy prxducers (home- owners, businesses, industries and public agencies) havir:q as mua11 responsibility as the utility for meeting growth in energy demand between 1982 and 2000. These "independent" V producers are also the consumers who pay the costs of utility -organized energy supply. Mutual understanding, support and cooperation amory the "independent" producers and the utility, especially in developing a financing program, is essential to successfully carrying out the Strategy. 4. Responsible agencies should put increased emphasis on evaluating and implementing ways to save energy in the transportation sector. Transportation is one of the largest energy using sectors in the region. However, existing and planned local conservation efforts will have only a minor impact on consumption. Therefore, additional effort should be expended on developing ways to reduce transportation energy consumption and costs in the region. If fully implemented, the overall Energy Strategy has the potential tro + save about 40% of annual natural gas consumption and 17% of annual t' electricity consumption la 1990 and 2000. The recommended Overall Energy Strategy also has the potential to meet growth in peak electricity «) generation capacity needs and almost completely eliminate the need for expensive oil and natural gas fired electricity generation. Transpor- tation tactics incorporated from the 1980 Regional Transportation Energy Plan Recommendations can save 3% to 5% of annual motor vehicle fuel consumption. This Overall Cnergy Strategy could result in estimated net consumer ?+ savings of over $9 billion (1982 constant dollars) between now and 2000. This is about 12% of the total estimated consumer energy bill for this 18-month period. Direct energy costs (electricity, natural gas and gasoline) are estimated to total about 15% of per capita disposable income in this period. Lt Implementation Recommendations There are over 50 implementation recojmmendations contained in Chapter 5. The major areas where the Draft Plan makes specific implementation recommendations for local governments and other organizations are listed below: Conservation and Solar o Conservation in new housing (1981 Revised State Residential Building Code) o Conservation in existing housing o Conservation in new and existing non-residential buildings o Street light conversions to sodium vapor o Water conservation and reclamation (adopted Regional Plans) o Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings and new construction o Solar domestic water heating in existing housing and solar pool heating o Land use and transportation planning to take advantage of oppor- tunities to increase energy efficiency (e.g., clustering of appro- priate land uses for cogeneration, high density housing adjacent to transit facilities) Electricity Generation o Nuclear - No further action on nuclear development using present technology should be considered. The short term safety and long term environmental problems associated with the present technology are major barriers to increased implementation. These barriers may be overcome by future technology. In light of the potential operational uncertainties of the present technology, investment in more reliable technologies is preferable given the approximately 15% to 20% contribution of San Onofre Units 1, 2 and 3 to 1990 and 2000 electric consumption. o Coal - SDG&E should initiate, and local governments should support, action to preserve SDG&E's options for participation in future electricity generation development at the Blythe site (currently owned by SDG&E) using coal technology or some other proven, eco- monically competitive and environmentally acceptable alternative. o Purchased Power, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Solid Waste Conversion, Photovoltaics, Windpower and Small Hydroelectric Generation Projects should be actively pursued and supported by SDG&E, local governments, and businesses and industries. 0 Biomass, Solar Thermal, ocean Thermal, Wave Power and Solar Ponds - These technologies should be considered technologies for further evaluation, but no significant financial commitenent should be made at this time. Demonstrations of Solar Thermal and ocean 'Thermal technologies should continue to be monitored. A study of Biomass energy for the San Diego region should be undertaken to determine the resource potential and economic and environmental feasibility of this energy source. MAPTFR 1 IMMDUCTION AND BACKGROUND aiurm 1 IMMDUCTION AND S"ARY PURPOSE OF THE REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE. The need for and purpose of Regional Energy Planning in the San Diego area includes: o Providing basic information about the current and future energy situation in the region which can be LUerstood, agreed upon and used by public agencies and the private sector in decision -making. o Developing consensus among all segments of the region -on a.policy direction and strategy for cooing with energy issues and problems. o Monitoring, ccmnunicating and coordinating the plans and actions of local public agencies, energy suppliers, private sector oonsumers and th, state and federal governments to help ensure that these a actions re not duplicative and take advantage of already existit xise eting resources. o Developing specific recommendations for energy actions which can be implemented by local public ou private sector groups or prr-koted to state and federal governments. BACKGROUND OF ENERGY PLANNING FOR THE REGION Over the Est decade, energy has become an issue of interest and concern to every sector of the San Diego region. Businesses, industries, public agencies, and individual citizens have all been affected by the gasoline shortages in 1973-74 and 1979, and the dramatic increases in the price �. of all types of energy since 1973. Increasing local concern about energy has reflected three basic changes in the national and international energy situation: o Petroleum and natural gas have become increasingly more difficult and expensive to find ary, produce. j o Wet,tern industrialized countries are no longer able to sustain their 1yi petroleum -based economies with indigenous supplies and are subject to shortaqes caused by internal or international turmoil in the t non -industrialized countries which have most of the world's proven oil reserves. UH o Continuing high inflation rates and increasing interest rates have made large-scale energy supply projects of all types extremely ex- pensive and difficult to finance. Traditionally, energy supply companies, federal and state regulatory agencies, and major industrial energy consumers have been most concerned with planning for and implementing energy policies and programs. over the past 10 years, growing public awareness of energy supply and cost - as a problem of general concern to local carmunities has resulted in a demand for information and constructive actions that can be taken by local public agencies, businesses and citizens. �-r In -response, local governments in the region have started paying increasing rs attention to their own energy consumption and to look for ways to help their citizens deal with increasing energy prices and potential short- ages. Local governments have also recognized the advantage of having energy information and policy development to assist these efforts done by ;A the Association of Governments in a coordinated way for the entire region, rather than repeated by each local jurisdiction. Regional Energy Plan Update Process The initial Regional Energy Plan was adopted in 1978. This Plan empha- sized electricity and natural gas -energy use and ways to conserve, or substitute alternative sources, for these energy types. In 1980, a Regional Transportation Energy Plan was adopted which detailed energy conservation and energy shortage contingency actions for the transpor- tation energy sector of the region. The Regional Energy Plan Update �- was initiated by the SANDAG Board of Directors in July, 1981, for the following reasons: f o The data on which the 1978 Plan was based (particularly forecasts W of prices, consumption, conventional supply and the impacts of conservation and alternative sources) have changed substantially. w o There have been major changes in state and federal incentive and regulator-1 programs affecting conservation, alternative sources and conventional energy supplies. o Local jurisdictions have gained experience in how they can be effective in promoting "energy management". This experience may result in changing the emphasis of some of the local actions «r recomknded in the 1978 Plan. o Policy studies by the Energy 2000 Task Force and the San Diego "l Chamber of Converce have raised issues and recommends' ,ons that were not fully considered in the 1978 Energy Plan.' sJ The Board of Directors appointed a 36 member advisory committee — the Regional Energy Task Force -- to work with SANDAG staff in developing the Plan Update. The Task Force was chaired by City of vista Councilman _+ and SANDAG Board member Michael Flick and included representatives of local government staffs, professional groups involved in energy supply 12 and conservation, SDG&E, citizen and business interest groups, and state and federal energy agencies. The Regional Energy Task Force met monthly c between July, 1981 and April, 1982. A progress report on the Task Force's efforts was presented to the SANDAG Board in November, 1981. A Draft ? Regional Ene-Lgy Plan Update was presented to the Board for distribution and widespread review and comment in April, 1982. Contents of the Plan 3 The Regional Energy Plan Update consists of five chapters and two appendices. The contents of each chapter and the appendices are summarized below: M Chapter 1: Describes the purpose of the Regional Energy Plan ki Update, background of energy planning for the San Diego region, the process of developing the Regional Energy Plan. Update and the contents of the Plan. Chapter 2: Presents the existing and future energy situation for the region based on existing policies, b programs, and forecasts. This information is the basis upon which energy goals/ policies and actions were evaluated in developing the Regional Energy Plan Update. The flow and use of energy from source to t--onsuming sector is diagram for 1980, 1990 and 2000. Electricity capacity needs i and supplies, energy conservation and energy prices are also described for 1980, 1990 and 2000, based on forecasts of existing policies and programs. Chapter 3: States the Energy Issues, Goals and Policies that guided the development of the Overall Energy Strategy in Chapter 4 and the Specific Technology Implementation Recommendations in Clmapter 5. These goals, issues and policies were developed by assessing the current and future energy situation for the region based on the existing policies, programs and forecasts which are described in Chapter 2. Chapter 4. Contains an overall Energy Strategy for the region to carry out the goals and policies described in Chapter 3 The strategy is described in terms of major actions on energy supply and conservation technologies that are available to the region. The technology evaluations that were used in developing the strategy are summarized. (The complete technology evaluations appear in Appendix B. Each of the technologies was evaluated using criteria based on the goals and policies contained in Chapter 3.) The economic and energy implications and potential of the Overall Energy strategy are described in the remainder of this chapter. Chapter 5: Describes specific implementation actions for each of the technologies recommended in the Overall Energy Strategy. }? The recommendations emphasize actions that can be taken locally, and identifies responsible entities, where possible. Vie imple- mentation and monitoring process for the iy recommendations is also described in this chapter. 13 Appendix A: Contains the detailed data, and notes on the sources, and methodologies for these data, that were used to generate the information which appears in the f3?rst four chapters of the Plan. Appendix B: Contains the completetechnology evaluations which are summarized in Chapter 4 of the Plan. Also included in this appendix is a description of the criteria used in evaluating the technologies and the sources of information used in developing each technology evaluation. It 14 `1 .i d CHAPTER 2 PRESET AND FUTURE ENERGY SITUATION S CT APTER 2 PRESENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SI'1LX AN This chapter describes current and forecast energy demand, supply and price for the San Diego region. Forecasts of the future energy situation in the region are based on existing policies and programs for energy supply and conservation. These forecasts provide the basis for the identification of energy issues and the development of goals and policies which appear in Chapter 3 of the Plan. These goals and policies guided the evaluation of energy conservation and supply technologies, and the development of the Overall Energy Strategy For the Region and Specific Technology Implementation Recommendations ubich appear in -Chapters 4 and 5. The eooncmic and energy vmpacts of the Recommended Overall Energy Strategy which appear in Chapter 4 are described in terms of changes that would occur in the "baseline" forecast presented in this chapter. The format for presentation of information in this chapter is the use of graphics with an accanpanying page of text explaining the graphic and important ideas and conclusions which it contains. Following is a list of the information contained in the remaind,r of this chapter; o Regional Energy Flow, 1980 o Regional Energy Flow, 1990 o Regional Energy Flow, 2000 „ o Electric Generation Resources and Annual Demand, 1980-2000 o Electric Generaticn Resources and Peak Demand, 1980-2000 o Impacts of Existing Conservation and Solar Programs, 1980-2000 o Average Energy Price Forecasts, 1980-2000 U 17 SAN DIEGO REGIONAL ENERGY FLCW 1980 The flow of energy in the San Diego region from source to end use for 1980 is shown on the following diagram. The energy measurement used in the diagram is British Thermal units (BTU's). The BTU is a standard measure of energy value. The BTU is a convenient unit for ainvercing and comparing other energy quantity measurements such as barrels of oil, cubic feet of natural gas, and kilowatt-hours of electricity. r The sources of information for the diagram are recorded data from SDG&E (for natural gas and electricity) and estimates by SANDAG and the California Energy Commission (for transportation). More �+ details on these sources are contained in the notes for the 1980 diagram' located in Appendix A. The following conclusions about the region's current energy situation can be made based on the 1980 Energy Flow Diagram. r o The region is almost totally dependent on fossil fuels (oil and .. natural gas) for its source energy. -- o Electricity Generation and Transportation are the largest and most inefficient energy use sectors in the region. o The overall energy efficiency in the region is low. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of source energy is used for some productive purpose and 72% of source energy is ultimately lost as waste heat from power plant and industrial stacks, motor vehicle exhausts and building - roofs, walls and ceilings. 18 e-- O CO O O ..! ,,, LL to >0-0 n m a„ W E z c0.� t, z� O o wg a OS O w In z a N F- W m yN �o fz%- z x W{n Otl w_ w wF 1- Cl }N (D- caO uj- W Ln W h U tt M C) h i w F J } LL cc 4 to co CO Dw'A con 19 c� w z w u1 U D O N r t� W z w N O J > c� w x w z w -i a LL W N SAN DIEGO REGIONAL ENERGY FLOW 1990 The Sources of Information for this diagram are forecasts of energy demand and supply prepared by SDG&E and accepted by the California Energy Commission (CEC) (for natural gas and electricity) and by SANUAG and the CEC (for transportation). More details on these sources are contained in the notes for this diagram located in Appendix A. The 1990 Energy Flow Diagram includes reductions in energy end use demand expected to occur due to existing energy conservation and solar energy programs and incentives in the 10-year period between 1980 and 1990. These reductions are described in -more detail later in this chapter. Zhe 1990 Energy Flow Diagram indicates that: o Between 1980 and 1990, the region will have -reduced its dependency on fossil fuels, from 91% of source energy to 71%. o Energy sources for electricity generation reflect SDG&E's electricity resource plan. The plan indicates major increases in nuclear geo- thermal and purchased power, which should help in holding down electricity costs. o Electricity Generation and Transportation continue to be the largest and least efficient energy use .ectors. o The amount of energy used in the transportation end use, sector decreases due mainly to increases in overall motor vehicle fuel efficiency, forecast to average about 22 miles per gallon for all vehicles in 1990 as compared with about 12 mpg in 1980. o Growth in the Residential, Commercial and Industrial end use sectors outweighs conservation. The proportionate share of end use energy of these sectors grows. 20 r- i W W W o� W7WQI MlnW +;•+++++'++++ i +++++++++•r++ { +++-}'+ ++++++ I + + + + ++ Q + + + + + + + + + + Q i _ + + i •�•++++ O w > ++++++ Cn C%Z�N O C +'j-+++ W.JWN r. lnW +++++ +++ 4-++ ++++ ++++ \ + + + g +++ d +++ Q c +++ j +++ rn Lu In ON O w0 as Z p '" � w ° Z X ~ \` W p yo e # z'Q �N 0 Q a rr ° z w tm C Z O a l F. F Q W X ww co ca r. c� �:ti•�;;�,�.'�":,; \ h?• ;; \tom 400a Zip n ;vh.,�,r•.'` 4:� ,rah\ W2 a 4£Y }• h ti�i•, v,• J W G Lu ',y pay = }{;i;"•fir" y , �,' o : , , ? CO Ln X cc a W N e WO ,� o^° -j e W0 QM c Lli 20 cc ct cc Q O z W m Og 21 } }I W cc } a w CD w w w w v w a U. M w w �,\\\Q\\�qJ ►_1 L1 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++++ ++ ++++ ++ ++RI++ J JJ Q QQ F f�� Wfp W O WyK (7 a Oz r� I_ `' , -to '0 :j SIV DIEGO REGIONAL ENERGY FLOW 2000 Ube Sources of Information for this diagram are the same as those for the 1990 diagram and are detailed in the notes for this diagram located in Appendix A. The impacts of existing conservation and solar energy programs axe included in this diagram as they were for the 1990 diagram (these impacts are discussed in more detail later in this chapter). Major conclusions from the 2000 Energy Flow Diagram are: o The 2000 Diagram shows a 38% growth in source energy over 1980. the region's population is forecast to increase about 42i over this period. This means that per capita energy consumption is forecast to decrease over the 20-year period. The major factor in reducing per capita consumption is a dramatic decrease in transportation energy requirements from 114 trillion BTU's to 97 trillion BTU's. This decrease is due to fuel efficiency improvements documented in Appendix A. Average overall motor vehicle fuel efficiency in 2000 is assumed to be 30 miles per gallon, compared with 22 mpg in 1990 and 12 mpg in 1980. o Source energy for electricity almost doubles between 1980 and 2000 and its percentage of total source energy for the region increases from 44% to 57%. This is due in part to forecasts of significant caimrcial/industrial employment growth over the next 20 years. (ihese sectors of the economy share a high rate of electricity use.) This is also clue to large increases in geothermal energy as a source of electricity supply. Geothermal is assumed to be less efficient than other electric generation technologies. However, this ineffi- ciency, reflected in the energy flow diagram as increased lost energy from electricity generation, is not of great concern because fossil fuels are not being consumed. o Electric Generation is assumted to be considerably diversified compared with 1980 depend^nce on oil and natural gas, based on SDG&E's "Resource Plan". This situation would reduce growth in electricity costs. However, only a small portion of these new electricity sources are now committed, and there are technical, economic or political barriers to be overcome before they can be counted on. (See Peak Demand graph and discussion.) o Oil and natural gas demand decreases slightly between 1980 and 2000 due to diversification of electric generation and trans- portation fuel efficiency improvements. o t7aerall energy efficiency in 2000 is estimated to be about the same as in 1980: 29% in 2000 as compared to 28% in 1980. Growth in the relatively inefficient electricity generation sector between 1.980 and 2000 cancels out assumed efficiency increases in the residential, connercial/industrial and transportation sectors. 22 1� N 0 N N C �LL Oa J {p LL NC G W W O ~ z n. WN W �o 0 U Z x (7 C. > N W pt N CC c c iF p y W :° C7 x W F_ WW C Q at N m m I ... I F J� � } CC S LL 0: z m z y v w-I Z c`� W W W W O W e- `cQ o ly W z J (.) ul D +++++++++#+ c ~ LL +++++++++#+ 0 En to W h+++++ f F++++ N ++++++++++++ ++++++++#++++++ +++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++a•+++++++++++ a ++++ ++++i•+++#++#t++++r +++++ ++++++++.F+++++++++ +4+++ ++++++#+#+++++#++++ ++++ W#++++++++++++#+++-F ++4 +•h F. } +++#++++++++++}+++ +##++ Q p cd> +++++++F+#++++++++ ++#+++ v~i w d F }++++++++++}++++++ 406 +++'}•+++ W O W N t%!n W +++++++ ++++ +A++ +++ ++ + ++ ++ +++++ +++ ++ \ ++++++4 +++ ++y ++++++ +++ + T T + + + + + + + + + + + + + e + + ++ a + N +++n++ Z O a a aQ F F L1 CCPW a�IN pm M uNtn N f� N Z � i0 oz r4, ll •' \\ �'•,.. �' S n �1 ��� , T.4�' `Y., a •. \v`. tp Oi ISP j�: lu" a+ V F 0 0 i-WN no�'.ys `up n :v4 WZ `�; N. .p \ \4 a\; ti' ,4 }•4` Cs o4 r off` IR C),t,+`tea+xcn,yO tia ,..+`, •>a4�., `T :1 a" z... 4'.,{ }'.O 4' +.{n k`� Q J J_fD � V OWN \' °rr° W \ QWo c, WW Y^ KN ao 04 O o w VMS U fl h v F p c o N O z 73 ELECTRICITY GENERATION RESOURCES AND ANMUh , D&MAND 1980-2000 The following bar graph shows annual electricity demand for the region from 1980 to 2000 (solid line), and SDG&E's electric generation resource plan in 1980, 1990 and 2000 (shown as vertical bars). The wider portion of the bars shows electricity provided by firm or committed electricity generation supplies. The narrow portion of the bars represents potential electricity supplies which are being pursued by SDG&E but are not yet guaranteed. The annual electricity demand .line includes reductions due to existing energy conservation and solar energy policies and programs. The information for this graph comes from the electric generation re- source plan and electricity demand forecasts prepared by SDG&E and adopted" by the California Energy Commission. More details on these sources are contained in the notes for this graph located in Appendix A. o An important point which is made in this graph has to do with the use of oil and natural gas to generate electricity and its implica- tions for electricity price. The graph shows fossil fuel (oil and natural gas) electricity production being cut almost in half from 1980 4 levels in 1990 and 2000. The replacement of fossil fuel electricity production, as weil as production to meet growth in electricity demand between 1980 and 2000 is assumed to come from geothermal -- power, new power purchases from out of state, and other unspecified sources. However, none of these sources are committed at this time and most of them involve major economic, technical or political i difficulties. To the extent that these electricity supplies do not come on line as assumed here, more fossil fuel electricity will have to be produced than indicated on the graph. Since fossil fuel elec- tric generation (particularly oil fired generation) is very expensive, .� this would result in higher electricity rates and consumer costs. i Therefore, implementing additional non -fossil fuel electric genera- tion supplies that are not yet oc-initted will play an important part in holding down electricity costs. M 24 0 3 8 SAN DIEGO REGION ELECTRICITY GENERATING RESOURCES AND ANNUAL DEMAND 1980-2000 Million Kilowatt -Hours (KWh) (Based on Existing Policies, Programs and Forecasts) 20000 0 v 0 :i 15000 a� w 0 3.10000 c 0 2 5000 0, 15,821 0013%°0°� 0UVVU0 =PW 12,474 + + 12%-+I ° I +++++ 9,729 1 *it-A*1 1% 14% 80% / 40h 29% 1980 1990 2000 FIRM OR COMMITTED RESOURCES POTENTIAL OR UNCOMMITTED RESOURCES Fossil Fuel Generating Capacity ;•; +; Geothermal Potential im Nuclear Generating Capacity Potential Purchase Contracts with IL-;-4. Other Power Companies 09 Purchase Contracts with Other Power Companies o0°0° Other Unspecified Sources Total Annual Electricity Demand 010 Alternative Generating Technologies including Solar, Wind and Cogeneration 25 ELECTRIC GENERATION RESOURCES AND PEAK DEMAND � 1980-2000 r-r � This graph shows peak electric demand and peak demand plus required t reserve margin as solid and dotted .lines. These demand lines reflect ,- reductions in peak demand due to existing energy conservation and solar . . energy policies and programs. Peak electric demand occurs only once or a few tunes a year when there is simultaneous demand for electricity by many users. Peak demand in the San Diego region usually occurs on hot 7 summer afternoons. In planning to meet peak electric demand, the utility fi•, must consider a reserve margin (usually about 20%) to account for poten- tial outages to some parts of the generation system. The graph also shows SDG&E's electric generation resource plan in 5-year increments as vertical bars. The wider portion of the bars shows firm or committed electricity generation capacity.. The narrower portion of the bars repre- sents potential or uncommitted capacity that is being pursued by SDG&E.+ The sources of information for this graph are the same as for the ~~ preceeding graph on annual electric demand and resources. Notes on the sources for this graph are located in Appendix A. o The most important point made in the graph is that after 1990, assuming existing conservation and solar energy policies and programs, peak electric dermand will start to exceed firm and committed resources (including San Onofre Units 1. 2 and 3 and the Eastern Interconnection Transmission Line). Unless sane of the potential resources are added to the electric generation system, brownouts and shortages could occur. There are significant barriers to all of the proposed major additions to the resource bese, which are discussed in the technology, evaluations•% in Appendix B. The uncertainty of future electric generating capacity is a major problem that has yet to be resolved. -� w F- L t S � bkW 26 r r Of G 00 �. yw W J sFIO-: o +++ a CC � m •O O M N+L• w 3 lL LO r cr. L C r W A �� r F~- o 'c o c aa) r ti r Ci a i (y c7 a7 f= t{ I,i '41� N N ,; a D r o o r N ocYi O L O r . '- �-. Q CD 0-0 O QV) r� r Z ~O oo r a cc C0 At d _ O cc ilk a W W N U. LL U M d O �w 000 O G tCv tCa lfl lit `° N N c U EE cc m L 13 DO m 4. F CDm " c Ca r r U.d CD r o r o c� o R 0 LL 2 a ' o o g cc � � ■ ■ 0o M N M N LL ' O J O CD O O O O to U) VO' M N Cr Alpede3 6upeaauaE) }o (MW) suemeSaW 27 ) IMPACTS OF EXISTING CONSERVATION AND SOLAR PROGRAMS 1980-2000 The following graphs show reductions in energy demand that are forecast ;o occur between 1980 and 2000, based on existing policies and programs [ for energy conservation and solar energy. In each graph, forecast energy " demand is represented by the total height of each bar. Forecast energy savings are shown by the darkened segment at the top of each bar. The percentage of energy savings/total demand is also shown. The remaining portion of each bar is the demand used in the previous energy flow dia- grams and electricity demand and resource bar graphs. The sources of information for these graphs are the same as for the energy flow diagrams. More details on these sources are contained in Appendix A. o Following is a listing of the existing conservation and solar policies 1' and programs that result in the savings shown for iatural gas and electricity: Residential r7 - State of California Building and Appliance Standards set by the California Energy Commission (CEC), assumes 80% compliance With 7 the Standards. - County of San Diego solar mandating ordinance, state building standards which require solar where more cost effective than electric hot water heaters, and the 011-42 program (required by the Public Utilities Commission) which provides rebates for - residential solar hot water heaters on existing houses. - Federally mandated Residential Conservation Service (RCS) r, audits and state mandated swimming pool filter pump audits t carried out by SDG&E. - Residential Load Management Programs Required by CEC Load ; Management Standards. No net electricity savings are forecast in the residential sector; however, peak savings are forecast. - Installation of individual meters by SDG&E in previously single - metered multifamily housing projects. - SDG&E programs to promote conservation products and sales. Non -Residential - State Building and Appliance Standards for the commercial and _ industrial sectors. - Commercial and Industrial Toad Management Programs required by CEC Load Management Standards. - SDG&E program to reduce indoor and outdoor cainvercial lighting w and convert existing lighting to more efficient fixtures. - SDG&E auditing programs called: Program to Achieve Conservation+ of Energy (PACE) and Assigned Accounts - SDG&E program to test water pumps to promote efficiency improvements. - Regulation of voltage in SDG&E's transmission lines to reduce energy use. Required by PITC. o The motor vehicle fuel (gasoline and diesel) savings shown result from improvements in fuel efficiency due to federal new car standards and ; fuel price increases and related consumer demand for more efficient „a vehicles. Overall fuel efficiency is forecast to increase from 11.9 mpg in 1978 when federal fuel efficiency standards were initiated, to 22.1 mpg in 1990 and 30.6 mpg in 2000. �. 28 2 900 800 700 600 CN E s 500 F 400 300 200 100 1,500 500 SAN DIEGO REGION IMPACTS OF EXISTING CONSERVATION AND SOLARPROGRAMS (Based on Existing Policies, Programs and Forecasts) Natural Gas F;amr;, .*%, Will; 4% 1HUu 1UUU 2000 Motor Vehicle Fuels 1980 1990 2000 29 15,C-U0 s 3 Y 010,000 5,000 4,000 3 4 3,000 :n 3 2,000 1,000 1E80 1990 2000 Peak Electrical Demand 1980 1990 2000 Savings Due to Existing Policies, Programs and Forecasts ❑ Energy Demand After Conservation E-5 t f� t r M?ERAGE DIEMY PRICE FORECAST'S L980-2000 f i Average energy prices ft, the region are shown on these graphs. The �} 1980 prices are based on recorded data, and 1990 and 2000 prices are r- forecast in 1982 dollars. For natural gas and electricity the price represents the average of prices charged to different classes of Qs - toners. Zhe gasoline price represents the average of several grades of fuel and service (leaded, unleaded, full service, self service). Additional information about the sources of these forecasts is located 17 x ' in Appendix A. Following are major conclusions about future energy prices: o The uncertainty of price forecasting is reflected by the range of high and low forecasts presented. The Regional Energy Task Force generally felt that the low forecasts were highly optimistic. F �s o Natural gas and gasoline prices Sin constant dollars) are forecast to double in about 10 years (based on the average of the high and low eneL�gy prices. o Electricity prices increase at a lower rate, assuming that current fossil fuel electricity generation is replaced by less expen- sive generation technologies. Given uncertainties in the implemen- tation of these technologies, more oil and gas generated electricity r than planned for may result in higher electricity prices (see discussion of Annual Electricity Resources and Den►and graph). � I i ' t L I �s �i ue 4 i..J 30 1.50 1.00 E d s ,50 3.00 e 0 m 0 2.00 1.00 SAN DIEGO REGION AVERAGE ENERGY PRICE FORECASTS 1980-2000 (Constant 1982 Dollars) Natural Gas 1989 1990 2000 Gasoline. 1980 1990 2000 31 Y 150 .100 .050 Electricity 1980 1990 2000 0 Recorded Data ® Law Forecast (SDG&E; Natural Gas and Electricity, DOE: Gasoline) High Forecasts (CEC: All Energy Types) E-6 I CHAFFER 3 REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES, GQAIS'AND POLICIES, 0 1 N I CHAPTER 3 REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES, GOALS AND POLICIES ri The Regional Energy Goals and Policies contained in this chapter serve as a general guide to local governments, businesses, industries and citizens on haw the region's energy situation and related economic and environmental situations can be improved in the future. The Energy Issues discussed in this chapter are based on review of the �t _xisting and future energy situation for the region which appear in .liapter 2. The Goals and Policies were developed by the Regional Energy Task Force after review of the forecasts of existing policy and programs and the Energy issues. The Goals and'Policies were also based on Energy Task Force review of the recommendations contained in the following documents: o 1978 Regional Energy Plan o 1980 Regional Transportation Energy Plan o San Diego Chamber of Commerce Energy Task Force Report o Energy 2000 Task Force Report o 1981 California Energy Commission Biennial Report These Issues, Goals and Policies were reviewed with the SANDAG Board zF, of Directors in November 1981 and were then used in evaluating energy technologies (technology evaluations are summarized in Chapter 4 and appear in full in Appendix B) and developing the Overall Energy Strategy _v for the region contained in Chapter 4. 3� U35 r, REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE ISSUES Energy Costs ISSUE: In the San Diego region, direct energy expenditures account for about 10% of the typical family's after-tax income. Indirect energy costs included in the purchase price of goods and services accounts for another 10% to 20% of household income. The real price (not including inflation) of natural gas has been forecast to double by 1990 and more than triple by 2000. Natural gas provides about 75% of home energy needs in the region.. State of California energy conserving building standards � for new residences, which were initiated in 1975 and raised in 1978 and 1982, will help to reduce energy cost increases in these newer housing units. Households living in pre-1975 residential buildings with no conservation improvements will be affected by the fW l extent of price increases. Pbout 85% of the housing units in the region were built before 1975. Most low and moderate income households reside in the pre-1975-units ' because older housing accounts for.iast of the less expensive housing in the region. Federal, state and utility efforts to promote and subsidize energy efficiency improvements in low and moderate income housing have not been sufficient. There are approximately 210,000 dwellings in the region which house low income families. It is estimated that le-cs than 1% of these units have been affected by the various government and utility weatherization programs in the last five years. ' Real gasoline and diesel fuel prices have been forecast to at least double in the next 20 years. vehicle fuel costs are currently about 70% of total household energy costs. Even with significant increases in light duty w vehicle fuel efficiency (average miles per gallon for the region's passenger cars and small trucks is forecast to be 2' times today's MPG .w by 2000), vehicle fuel costs will be about 60% of household energy costs in 2000. ISSUE: Existing businesses and industries are faced with problems similar to pre-1975 housing. Industrial and commercial energy consump- tion accounts for 60% of total electricity need in the region and 35% of natural gas consumption. These users will be affected by the natural gas and gasoline price increases discussed above as well as by real electri- city prices that have been forecast to increase by over one-third above present levels by the year 2000. Commercial vehicles are forecast to have much smaller increases in fuel efficiency than light duty vehicles su that price increases will not be offset by efficiency increases to as great an extent as for households. Increasing energy costs could result in a f� negative effect on productivity and economic development, and the region's ability to attract new business and industry. ISSUE: rublic agencies will also be hard hit by energy price increases. Energy costs are typically the second largest operating expense in public agency budgets. Legislative restrictions on revenue sources and public demand for increased services and facilities make balancing budgets diffi- w 36 s n cult for public agencies. Significant energy price increases will make this problem worse. Electricity ISSUE: Supplies to meet expected electricity demand after 1990 are uncommitted and uncertain. Proposals for new supplies rely to a large extent on purchase contracts with utilities outside of the region. These contracts usually have contingency clauses and other uncertainties. Geo- r �! thermal energy is another major source of electricity supply being proposed to meet the region's needs after 1990. The technical and economic fea- sibility of large-scale geothermal electricity production is v, still uncertain. Given the long lead time typically needed to develop conventional elec- tricity generating projects, and the heavy reliance on two future supply sources with technical, economic or politican uncertainties, the present electricity resource plan could result in electricity supply shortages and economic disruption. ISSUE: bbst of the existing electricity generating capacity for the region is currently provided by fossil fuel burning generating plants which use ,oil or natural gas to generate electricity. Real oil and natural gas prices are forecast to at least double in the next 10 to 20 years. Oil and gas will continue to be the most expensive fuels for generating electricity. Rising electricity prices will contribute to economic problems for the region's households, businesses and industries. ISSUE: Conventional electricity generation results in about 25%-35% of 1.i the fuel burned being converted into electricity, with the remaining 65%-75% of the fuel being lost as waste heat. This waste heat constitutes t' a potential energy source and cost savings if it can be put to use. u Vehicle Fuels ISSUE: Many petroleum and foreign policy experts believe that there is a good probability that during the next 10 years the U.S. will experience a petroleum shortage at least as severe as those in 1973-74 and 1979 - (10%-15%). The most effective way to reduce the negative economic impact of petroleum shortages is by pre -planning local contingency actions to help people get to work, conduct business, and make other essential trips. The San Diego region has a contingency plan. However, the plan has not been translated into specified actions that can be used in a shortage situation by local public and private implementing organizations suul as transit companies, local governments, CALT'RANS and major employers. Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources ISSUE: Based on current rorecasts ano program>5, ttie use or alternative and renewable energy sources (other than geothermal.) will account for less than 5% of electricity generating resources and displace less than 5% of electricity and natural gas consLunption in any one year between now and 2000. State and national Studies of the potential of cost-effective alternative energy sources (particularly solar) to substitute for conven- tional sources indicate that the full potential of alternative energy 37 sources is not being fully planned for and developed in the San Diego region. ;r ISSUE: State of California residential building standards for new construction are the most effective of all of the presently adopted conservation programs in the region. Increased standards effective in 1982 will result in energy savings of 50% of the energy consumption allowed by the previous standards adopted in 1978. The least expensive °A way to meet these new standards in most areas of the San Diego region ry will be through the use of passive solar space heating. In order for passive solar heating to be feasible, local governments and the housings developmnt industry will have to institute solar access analysis and protection. Currently, local governments do not have adequate solar access programs.{ !� ISSUE: Public information, education and awareness about the availability and economics of energy conservation and alternative energy sources is important in changing attitudes to be receptive to the use of new tech- nologies when they are proven reliable and effective. Many information and awareness efforts,currently are being carried out. There is a need to coordinate these programs to avoid duplication and eliminate ineffective programs in order to get the most impact per dollar spent. ' 38 1_� REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE GOALS 1. Ensure that the region's energy demand is based on the most efficient use of energy possible and that energy supplies are reliable and sufficient to meet the economic and social goals identified in the I Regional Comprehensive Plan. - Comment: Energy is essential to the working of the region's social and economic institutions and to the quality of life. The Regional Comprehensive Plan (Volume 1, Goals) sets forth the economic and social needs and desires of the region's citizens. The most important energy goal is to ensure that the energy required to attain these -- other goals is available. This goal includes minimizing demand through cost-effective energy efficiency and conservation and pursuing a reliable and cost-effective mix of energy supply sources to meet the demand. - 2. Minimize the energy expenditures of the region's households, busi- nesses, industries and public agencies. -Comment: The most perceptible energy problems affecting the region's ci-'zens and economy have been the continuing rise in energy prices i..t and economic shocks from energy supply shortages. Nays to reduce energy costs include efficiency and conservation, use of less expen- sive fuels, alternative energy technologies, and pre -planned contingency "w measures to minimize inconvenience and economic loss during shortages. This goal assumes that recent trends toward deregulation of energy !.! prices will continue and is not meant to suggest that energy costs should be reduced by holding prices below world market levels. kJ 3. Minimize negative environmental effects of supplying and using energy. w Comment: Energy supply projects can have environmental impacts on ` air r; water and adjacent land use that are expensive or infeasible to reduce to accepted levels. Environmental impacts can be reduced through reducing energy demand, selecting supply technologies that have relatively small environmental impacts or developing mitigation s measures for projects that have significant impacts. 4. Minimize the consumption of non-renewable resources in supplying and using energy. Comment: Scarce and non-renewable resources that are presently i' �a essential to the conduct of society such as fossil fuels should be conserved to reduce the rate of their cost increase and extend the time available to devise alternative fuels and technologies. This ' L goal can be net through energy efficiency and conservation and the use of renewable resources to provide needed energy. Ei L U 39 REGIONAL ENERGY PLAN UPDATE POLICIES Energy Costs, Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources 1. Reduce energy consumption and energy costs in local public agency buildings and operations. 2. Evaluate local public agency energy source development and pursue„i' . projects that are cost effective. This policy includes energy sources that are controlled by public agencies, such as solid waste, water supply systems, and wastewater treatment systems. Energy supply pro- jects that can be publicly financed or franchised, such as solar and wind energy, cogeneration and district heating, and other types of small scale energy projects are also included. 3. Encourage or require cost-effective energy saving measures, to be installed in pre-1975 housing, where feasible, and support state energy efficiency requirements in new housing. J 4. Encourage or require cost-effective energy saving measures and a use of alternative energy sources by businesses and industries. Electricity 1. Support S� efforts to diversify the electricity generating measures Z't being seriously pursued for the region, with emphasis on control of supplies by entities within the region, using more inexpensive fuels to generate power and initiating development of additional alter- native energy sources as part of the region's electricity resource plan. { 2. Encourage and assist efforts to use waste heat from electricity generation to provide additional energy for industrial, commercial and residential use.i Vehicle Fuels (From the Regional Transportation Energy Plan adopted by the SANDAL Board in September, 1980.) t- 1. Energy Conservation - Transportation energy requirements should be minimized by government support for the planning, programming, and implementation of transportation services, Facilities and land use configurations which conserve energy. 2. Enemy Planning - Transportation improvements with positive energy impacts should be given high priority in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program. 3. Energy Technology - The region should support federal, state, and private industry efforts to improve vehicle fuel efficiency (includes trucks and buses). 40 4. Energy Contingency - The preparation and maintenance of energy con- tingency plans to minimize the impacts of a shortage should be given high priority by regional agencies, local governments, transit oper- ators, CALTRANS and major employers. Coordination I. Ensure that local energy conservation, alternative energy source and energy supply development programs suppor:., and are coordinated with, private sector, public utility and state and federal energy programs and projects that are consistent with the goals and policies of the Regional Energy plan. rr; 0 41 Ywl Ll CHAPTER 4 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION n I9 j U,TRAIJ, fNERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION The Overall Energy ,strategy for the region is based on evaluations of 22 ,.� energy conservation, solar energy and electricity generation technologies. These technologies weto evaluated using criteria based on the Regional Energy Plan Update Issue, Goals and Policies. Transportation Policies, developed and analyzed in `he Regional Transportation Energy Plan adopted by SAN!= in 1990, have been incorporated into the overall i-� Energy Strategy. The .following information supports and illustrates the implications of the recommeuled Overall Energy Strategy presented below: o Summary of technology evaluations (this chapter). o Economic Summary of the overall Energy Strategy (this chapter). o Description of the potential future impacts of the strategy on the region's system of energy supply and demand (this chapter). o Reoowended actions for each technology which will contribute to the implementation of the overall Energy Strategy (Chapter 5). tom+ o The complete technology evaluations (Appendix B). r, The following conditions are assumed as the basis upon which the strategy rill be implemented: 'w o Energy demand and price forecasts for the region as described in Chapter 2. o Currently, required or planned conservation and solar energy prograns - as described in Chapter 2. o The existing electricity generation system as described in Chapter 2, including San Onofre nuclear generating Units 1, 2 and 3, and " assuming the construction of the eastern interconnection transmission line. W OVF^-)IL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION + 1. local public agencies, SDG&E, and the state and federal governments should give first priority to the recc+m►ended Implementation Actions to encourage, assist, remove barriers to and, if warranted, require implementation of all cost-effective energy effiency, energy r � W i i r 45 E conservation and include: These technologies Conservation in new housing (1981 Revised State Residential Building Code) Conservation in existing housing Conservatior in new and existing non-residential buildings Street light conversions to sodium vapor. Pater conservation and reclamation (adopted Regional Plans) Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings and ne, construction Solar domestic water heating in existing housing and solar pool heating Land use and transportation planning to take advantage of opportunities to increase energy efficiency (e.g., clustering of appropriate land uses for cogen_ration, high density housing adjacent to transit facilities) Rationale: Conservation and passive solar are the most cost-effective technologies for energy consumers in meeting the non -transportation energy needs of the region. They should be given priority by citizens, businesses, local governments, the utility, and the state and federal governments. A diversity of electric generation technologies for the region should be seriously pursued as recommended in the Implementation Actions and summarized below: Nuclear - No further action on nuclear development using present technology should be considered. The short team safety and long term environmental problems associated with the present technology are major barriers to increased implementation. These barriers may be overcome by future technology. In light of the potential operational uncertainties of the present technology, investment in more reliable technologies is preferable given the approxi- mately 15% to 20% contribution of San onofre Units 1, 2 and 3 to 1990 and 2000 electric consumption. Coal - SDG&E should initiate, and local governments should support, action to preserve SDG&E's options for participation in future electricity generation development at the Blythe site (currently owned by SDG&E) using coal technology or some other proven, eeo- nanically competitive and environmentally acceptable alternative. Purchased Power, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Solid Waste Conversion, Photovoltaics, Wir0power and Small Hydroelectric Generation Projects should be actively pursued and supported by SDG&E, local governments, and businesses and industries. Biomass, Solar Thermal, ocean Thermal, Wave Power and Solar Ponds - These technologies should be considered technologies for further evaluation, but no significant financial commitment at this time. Demonstrations of Solar Thermal and Ocean Thermal technologies should continue to be monitorea. A study of Biomass energy for the San. Diego region should be undertaken to determine the resource potential ana economic and environ- mental feasibility of this energy sodree, Rationale: The region's existing (already built) plant capacity far generating electricity is approximately 2,810 Megawatts (MW) (2,280 W oil and gas, 530 MvJ nuclear). 1990 generation requirements will be about 3,030 W. 2000 generation requirements will be about 3,870 W. The additional electric generation capacity required over the existing resource base (2,810 wl) in 1990 will be 220 HI and in 2000, 1,060 141. Conservation and solar have the potential �+ to eliminate t',e need for new generation capacity in 1990 and to cut new generation requirements by -one third in 2000. havevet, if growth in energy costs is to be brought under control, as much of the 2,280 KA oil and gas generating base as possible should -be replaced by more cost -•effective technologies. Because of the uncertainty of reaching the full potential of conservation and difficulties involved in developing each of the electric generation technologies evaluated, all reasonable options should be pursued. 3. The utility, local governments, citizens, and businesses should cooperate in implementing conservation, solar and electric generation technologies as reco mierxled in #1 and #2, above. The most important area of cooperation should be the financing of energy conservation and supply technologies. A financing strategy involving capital development, debt structure and rates should be jointly developed by SCC&E local governments, citizens and businesses, and implemented through the Public Utilities Coamis- sion and private financial markets. i iaLlvualu: me most critical variable involved in carrying out all of the ccnservatio,t, solar and electric generation technologies is capital availability and financing. This area has traditionally ri been the responsibility of the utility. Implementation of the recommended strategy will result in "independent" energy producers 7 (hcmeomiers, businesses, industries and public agencies) having as much responsibility as the utility for meeting growth in energy w+ demand between 1980 and 2000. These "independent" producers are also the consumers who pay the roosts of utility organized energy supply. Mutual understanding, support and cooperation among - the "independent" producers and the utility, especially in developing a financing program, is essential to successfully carrying out the strategy. ` 4. Responsible agencies should put increased emphasis on evaluating and implementing ways to save energy in the transportation sector. Rationale: Transportation is the largest energy end use sector in to 'region and gasoline (along with electricity) is one of the most expensive types of eneray. �—t— - -�=-- - - 3 u---..y . &,A Nicuum local ,.,, conservation efforts will have only a minor impact on consumption. Therefore, additional effort should be expended on developing ways to reduce transportation energy consumption and costs in the region. 47 Potential Impacts of the Overall Energy Strategy r. If fully implemented, the overall Energy Strategy has the potential to save about 40% of natural gas consumption and 17% of electricity con-sumption in 1990 and 2000. The reooamnded Strategy also has the potential to meet growth in peak electricity generation capacity needs and almost completely eliminate the need for expensive oil `-� and natural gas fired � electricity r y generation. Existing transportation tactics for air quality ! and energy can save 3% to 5% of annual motor vehicle fuel consumption. The Overall Energy Strategy- could result in estimated net consumer cost savings of over $9 billion (1982 constant dollars) between now and 2000. This is about 12% of the total estimated consumer energy bill for this 18-year period. Direct energy costs ri (electricity, natural gas and gasoline) are estimated to total about 15% of per capita disposable inane in this period. r• The potential energy and cost impacts of the Overall Energy Strategy are presented ih the following tables and graphs. 3 j 48 ". OVERALL ENERGY STRATB-3Y FOR THE REGION SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGY EVALUATIONS The technology evaluations which appear on the two following tables are summaries of the full technology evaluations which appear in Appendix B. The evaluations are based on information from the California Energy Commission, Department of Energy and local sources, where available. The information sources for each technology evaluation are listed in t.! Appendix B. The evaluations were carried out for 22 technologies based on a set of nine criteria developed by the Regional Energy Task Force. ^! The criteria were based on the Energy Goals and Policies recommended in Chapter 3 of the Man. The technologies in the summary tables are divided into two groups, ' Conservation and Solar, and Electric Generation. The conservation and solar technologies reduce consumer demand for electricity and natural gas. The electric generation technologies primarily generate electricity rather than save it, even though same of these technologies are solar based (e.g., wind, photovoltaics). The implementation recommendations in Chapter 5 of the Plan are organized according to the specific technologies listed in these summary tables. Technologies for conserving energy in the transportation sector and responding to motor vehicle fuel shortages are not evaluated in detail '�- in the Regional Energy Plan Update. The analysis of the major techncr- logies recommended in the 1980 Regional Transportation Energy Plan adopted by the SANDAG Board are summarized following the summary tables for Conservation and Solar, and for Electric Generation. A listing of all of the recommended conservation and emergency contingency actions in the Regional Transportation Energy Plan appears in Appendix B. The economic impacts of these recomnendations are included in the Economic Summary of the Overall Energy Strategy which follows the technology evaluation tables. 49 v' � " N O 1 t'1 N N f�f 1'1 GpM.^yQ M ppM q�j pM�i 60 - 140 M-0 o N dCX.jx � � X, ~ X x N x X`ts X np N 0 % X X X V MX b .N. A ,D $ o N X 0 . x Xn ,0.1 H x X K W 17 W. 50 gi 3 t W 9 N ~ 8� N M y W 1sd �W ryp� N Q nN `Y f , � N N r� t F 5 a, C yyv rY N F . ' '8 0 � £ o b ccii! OLD N i P h N N d P N �SN8 e�o��'d• v } t3 s.J Cyj S " ��p� ���Nv apt � •gip 5 }R j4� "�" ypC � y � � � H �Q � ` •a7 EG•�y feUro1 C 11 �.(C7�, i� �UC Yi ^Y � ro � � �.�� � � ^� � f w7 OY s � �J V�Oi•M Y N { c S1 i SAN DIEGO REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION ENERGY PLAN CONSERVATION OBJECTIVE 1985 1995 Transportation Tactic Savings Gallons ear Savings Gallons/Year Expanded Ridesharing 4,781,500 14,052,500 Expanded Transit Encourage Bicycle 383,250 693,500 Encourage Pedestrian Mode 547,500 54,750 1,222,750 127,750 Expand Interurban Bus/Rail 164,250 529,250 Traffic Flow Improvement 8,468,000 18,907,000 TOTAL 14,399,250 35,532,750 SAN DI.EGO REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION ENERGY PLAN F14ERGENCY CONTINGENCY OBJECTIVE 20% 50% Gasoline Gasoline LocalRts se Shortage Short Increase in Transit Passenger Trips 43% 100-200% Increase in I%brk :rip Vehicle Occupancy 2$ 10- 20% Increase in Other Modes (Pedestrian, Bicycle, Motorcycle, Motorized Bicycle) 5% Decrease in Average Trip Length 4% Decrease in Vehicle Miles of Travel 17% Increase in Miles/Gallon/Vehicle 7% Decrease in Casoline Consumption 20% 52 12- 20% 13- 20% 40- 45% 15% 50% I OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION ECONWIC SUMARY 1982-2000 The following table provides a general idea of the magnitude and relationship of some of the economic impacts of reaching the full potential of the technologies recommended in the Overall Energy Strategy and listed in the preceeding Technology Evaluation Summary tables. More details on the information sources and methods used in illustrating the economic effects of the Overall Energy Strategy appear in the notes f for this table in .Appendix A. ") For each technology type (conservation and solar, electric generation and transportation) and each economic sector involved in implementing specific technologies (for example, the residential sector would be responsible for the costs of the 1981 state building standards for new hares and for weatherization of existing homes), the following infor- mation is presented: Capital Costs - The initial capital cost (not including applicable tax credits). For example, to reach the full energy saving potential for street light conversion in the region, the public sector (cities) would need to finance the conversion of about 25,000 street lights at a cost of ;160 each, or a total cost of almost $5 million. This cost is included in the public sector capital costs due to additional technology recommendations (total of $110 million). Net Consumer Savings - The net savings to energy consumers from imple- ;�; menting the technologies in a particular sector. Net savings involves many factors and can be highly variable depending on specific imple- mentation situations. The net savings are intended to reflect the net effect of all direct costs and benefits to the consumer including the capital costs discussed above, but also including interest costs, operation and maintenance costs, applicable tax credits (for example, the 55% California solar tax credit) and natural gas and electricity +w cost savings. Both the capital costs and consuner savings are divided into two Cate- gories: currently planned technology implementation (those already existing policies and programs for energy conservation, solar energy and electricity generation described in Chapter 2 of the Plan), and Additional Recommended Technology Implementation (new recommendations for technologies made in the Overall Energy Strategy (Chapter 4). Annual Rate of Return on Investment - This is a measure of the total economic efficiency of investments in energy technology that would result from full implementation of the technologies recommended in the Overall Energy Strategy. 53 Some of the conclusions that can be drawn from the Economic Summary are: o The return on investment from the planned and recommended techno- logies appears to be competitive with alternative investments available to the residential and commercial and industrial sectors. o Savings from currently planned technologies equate to about 5% of consumer energy costs and additional recanmended technology savings equate to about 7%, with a total cost savings of 12%. o Investment required to achieve the full potential of the Overall Energy Strategy is a small proportion of regional personal disposable income, about 2% over the 18-year period 1982-2000. o The residential, co!rmercial, industrial and public sectors would have the largest financial responsibility in achieving the full potential of the overall Energy Strategy ($5.6 billion conservation and solar investment plus most of the $2.3 billion electricity gener- ation capital costs for "all sectors," canpared with $2.9 billion capital costs for the utility. o There are two additional indirect economic benefits to the region of carrying out the Overall Energy Strategy which are not reflected in the Economic Summary table: 1. The emphasis on conservation and renewable resources in the ; Overall Energy Strategy will reduce the amount of money that leaves the region to purchase fuels and other energy. Cur- rently over 60% of SDG&E's rates are related to out of state purchases of energy and fuels. Because conservation and renewable energy resources rely heavily on local fabrica- tion, installation and maintenance, and have no fuel costs, a larger proportion of the money invested in them stays in the local economy. 2. Most of the conservation and renewable resource technologies require local fabrication, installation and maintenance and create more jobs in the local economy than do traditional energy supplies. Studies done by the Department of Energy (Creating Jobs Through Energy Policy, July 1979) and the California Public Folicy Center (Jobs Fran the Sun, February 1978) indicate that conservation measures create 25 times more jobs per unit of energy saved as new natural gas supplies ;} create per unit of energy provided. Solar heating was estimated to create 50 to 80 times as many jobs as natural gas supply. As an aid to better understanding the huge dollar numbers used in the ## Economic Summary table, these casts can be converted into average annual per capita costs and savings. During the 18-year period of analysis, the average annual per capita disposable income in the region is about $12,400 (in 1982 dollars). Average annual per capita capital costs to+ finance the Overall Energy Strategy would be about $260, or about 2% (260/12,400). The annual per capita consumer savings would be about $230, or just under 2% of annual disposable income, or about 12% of annualcon- sumer energy costs, which would average $1,900 over the 18-year period. 54 ;, ° ° ce as ac ae ae ae ae ae ae A � C��i y •- Q Q ca C d d I .i V co �I0 CMM M I� N In o N m p p N v u !+•t h V d i, co It U U It it II It It It It Z •o a {{ Z 0 a y C C O C •`o• «J W=Q -M�lo , p �o o In c W Z W -0 Erb CL 'p O dr o N e- M v V' c� C> 00o to to ^ g IM H W d 5 Z °^{ S r- O — 0 U + + + + + + + b c d O 33 ( I x OQ C O.n.'O N" C C d 0 Q(p00 to IM m' Cl) I 0 ... C r+V1 C d7 iN 3a t�5 _a« N MII s C7$ �$ Ev�cOOi c� E r c �� !•r�� c Q�N d d r ;? 0000 I 00 o IIn v oI 3E N I-200 C1}mW C F-'� V V.M^ - m NN OI } z� {3 U U U 1 It U U 4 U II e (90 ; = ° d E ° +�. CL'. 2 . 0 > N N= Q 9 w Z 3 2 = C G o° tl ac, �oq2 � o o v o �. a O cx F Q ►= E V cc a m J + + + + + + + 0 T9Oc C c 0 d C ' I ZR 3 m °� � N'tp0 M N (n I M In O II 7 Q O p U N N M L.. 4 I _ c O u1Oi Cl) N c y N u m W O N m V D •ao a e '�� QUO 0pi O po Op g u �p _ O N•EO O N E L O 7 C D «.w( 0000. o H D w aWO yoo r m 1 55 t OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL ENERGY IMPACTS -- i The following five bar graphs show the energy demand reduction impacts of conservation and solar technologies, and the electricity supply impacts of the electric generation technologies, included in the Overall Energy Strategy for the region. r In each graph, forecast demand based on existing policies and programs' appears as the first of two bars for each of the years 1980, 1990 and 2000. The second bar indicates the potential energy impacts of each of rn the technologies; recommended in the Overall Energy Strategy. The ' d ; specific potential energy savings or supply, and percentage of total .r demand can be obtained by referring to the Technology EvaluatiGi Summary tables. rr 6. 56 80 to 600 E a� :c _ O 2 400 200 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION AND SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR NATURAL GAS 0 t 1 2 3 2 b j 3 5 R 7 E ; E ; a ti a W tu a co lutsu 1990 2000 EXISTING PROGRAMS — FORECAST SAVINGS 0 Savings from Existing Programs (1978 state building and appliance standards, SDG&E audits. and conservation product sales, solar mandates and incentives). RECOMME14DED PROGRAMS — POTENTIAL SAVINGS 1982 State Residential building Standards (conservation and solar for now homes) Weatherizat.;.;t of existing homes [3) Conservation in existing non•residontial buildings � Energy efficient street light conversions Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings © Solar space heating and cooling in now non-residential buildings Solar water heating in existing homes E-7 57 lutsu 1990 2000 EXISTING PROGRAMS — FORECAST SAVINGS 0 Savings from Existing Programs (1978 state building and appliance standards, SDG&E audits. and conservation product sales, solar mandates and incentives). RECOMME14DED PROGRAMS — POTENTIAL SAVINGS 1982 State Residential building Standards (conservation and solar for now homes) Weatherizat.;.;t of existing homes [3) Conservation in existing non•residontial buildings � Energy efficient street light conversions Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings © Solar space heating and cooling in now non-residential buildings Solar water heating in existing homes E-7 57 15100( C 10,000 5,000 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION AND SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRICITY '--- 1JJW 2000 EXISTING PROGRAMS —FORECAST SAVINGS © Savings from Existing Programs (1978 state building a:id appliance standards, SDG&E audits and conservation product sales, solar mandates and incentives). RECOMMENDED PROGRAMS — POTENTIAL SAVINGS �t 1982 State Residential Building Standards (conservation and solar for new homes) Weatherization of existing homes Q Conservation in existing nen•residential buildings 0 Energy efficient street light conversions 0 Solar space heating and �•vling for existing buildings 0 Solar space heating and cooling in new non-residential buildings ID Solar water heating in existing homes F—a 58 M 3,000 N 2,000 E 4: f 1,000 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION & SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR PEAK ELECTRIC DEMAND (1,2,3,4) (5,6,7) (1,2,3,4) •.a�. (5,6,7) — a c a c E E E E !7 c p c CM x c a� M a N rn ' a ai SUOU 1UVU 2000 EXISTING PROGRAMS — FORECAST SAVINGS 13 Savings from Existing Programs (1978 state building and appliance standards, SDG&E audits and conservation product sales, solar mandates and incentives), RECOMMENDED PROGRAMS — POTENTIAL SAVINGS 1982 State Residential Building Standards (conservation and solar for new homes) ❑2 Weatherization of existing homes Conservation in existing non-residential buildings ® Energy efficient street light conversions Solar space heating and cooling for existing buildings © Solar space heating and cooling in new non-residential buildings Solar water heating in existing homes E-9 59 OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION, SOLAR & ELECTRIC GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR PEAK ELECTRIC DEMAND a,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 3 2 2,00 A 1,50 1,000 500 Mu 2000 i ❑ Forecast Peak Demand + 20% Reserve Margin (includes effects of existing conservation) EXISTING CAPACITY ry❑ Nuclear (San Onofre Units 1,2,3) PP Power Purchase Contracts } cc® Cogeneration 0 0 t Conventional Oil and Natural Gas Burning Power Plants RECOMMENDED NEW CAPACITY - POTENTIAL IMPACTS i� Conservation and Solar Technologies ap Additional Purchased Power cG Cogeneration sw Solid Waste 0 Photovoltaic Cells Wind Turbines c i Geothermal Power © Coal (or other technology) at Blythe Site e_10 *Y N 900 rn 800 c 0 c O 700 600 i �1k OVERALL ENERGY STRATEGY FOR THE REGION POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION FOR MOTOR VEHICLE FUELS 1990 (1,2,3,4,5,6) 50,o ' 11,2,3,4,$,6) � N C C! cc C.1 c`0n 2000 Demand, based on SANDAG travel forecasts and California Energy Commission fuel efficiency.forecasts. RECOMMENDED PROGRAMS — POTENTIAL SAVINGS Q Ridesharing Walking ® Transit Interurban bus/rail Bicycle ® Traffic flow improvements 61 E-11 CHAPTER 5 SPECIFIC MWJLOGy 2110104-EANTATION REMMENDATIONS I CHAPTER 5 a SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY IMPLF ENTATION RECCMMENDATIONS The specific recoAmendations for implementing various -technologies to �? carry out the Overall Energy Strategy for the region are listed in this chapter. In sane cases, it may be helpful to read the complete technology evaluation in Appendix B to understand the rationale behind a particular .,! reccxrnr_ndation. The recannendations-nphasize local actions and identify i� responsible entities, where possible. ADOPTION AND D1IPLEMEWATION PROCESS The Draft Regional Energy Plan will be accepted for distribution by the SIM AG Board and reviewed by SAMAG member agencies, other organizations responsible for implerentation actions recommended in the Plan (for; AJ example, SDG&E, Chamber of Commence, SDSU Center for Energy Studies) and groups who might be affected by the Plan proposals. SANDAN member agencies will be asked to adopt the Goals, Policies, and Overall Energy Strategy and agree to pursue the specific implementation recommendations that they are responsible for, subject to availability of funds to carry out the recaanendations. Organizations who are not SANDAG member agencies will also be asked to agree to pursue the specific imple- mentation actions That are recommended as their responsibility in the Plan. Following review and member agency adoption action, modifications will be made to the Draft Plan and a Final Plan will be submitted for adoption consideration by the SANDAG Board of Directors. Implementation of most of the recommendations wi'l be dependent on responsible agencies being able to identify fundz. to carry out the specified actions. Following adoption of the Req°cnal Energy Plan Update SANDAG will ccamunicate to each responsible organization the actions that are recommended for it in the Plan. hash agency will be asked to identify existing funds or potential financing sources. SANDAG will assist organizations in this task, if requested. T4 At the same time, SANDAG will pursue the initiation of an energy financing advisory group for the region with SDG&E, local govern- ments, businesses, industries and general public interest groups as recommended in this chapter. This action is a critical one because it should contribute to the development of financing mechanisms to carry out many of the implementation recommendations. SANDAG will monitor the funding of recommended implementation actions by responsible organizations and assist the energy financing advisory group in creating and carrying out a work program for developing an energy financing strategy for the region. t�a9 65 , Periodic implementation progress reports will be made to the SANDAG Board, beginning no later than January, 1983, Specific Technologv Implementation Recommendations I. CONSERVATION AND SOLAR 1981 Revised State Building Code for New Housing - a. Local governments should ensure that local building officials are s^ adequately trained through existing state and professional associa- tion sponsored seminars, to assist builders in meeting the new codes, and that adequate staffing exists to carry out an effective inspection and enforcement program. b. Local governments should support and participate in existing efforts " } by state (California Energyk•' Commission) and local (County of San Diego) governments to provide flexible and simple designs and requirements through which the energy saving standards of the state code can be met. SANDAG should assist the state and County in oommunicating these improvements to local jurisdictions and the development community. c. Local governments should remove barriers to solar water and space heating systems from zoning codes and other development regulations. SANDAG r should provide technical assistance to local staffs based on the energy "implementation ; packages" developed by the Regional Energy Task Force" in 1980-81. d. Local governments should incorporate site and building design criteria or standards into subdivision and planned development regulations which will allow the opportunity for solar water and passive space heating in new homes. Local planners should be adequately trained so they can assist developers in meeting solar site design requirements ,nd so they can enforce the requirements. SANDAG should provide tech- ry nical assistance to local staffs based on the energy "implementation packages" developed by the Regional Energy Task Force in 1980-81. e. Local governments should require or encourage legal guarantees to solar access in new development. SANDAG should provide technical assistance to local staffs based on the energy "implementation packages" developed by the Regional Energy Task Force in 1980-81. i f. Local governments should adopt minimum design standards for active solar water heaters. SANDAG should provide technical assistance to local.! staffs based on the energy "implementation packages" developed by the Regional Energy Task Force in 1980-81. g. The state and federal governments should continue some level of con- servation, solar and other renewable energy resource tax credits in *�+ order to ensure that the impact of the additional cost of the 66 w is building standards on homeowners and renters is minimized and to ensure that public subsidies for conservation and alternatives are comparable to those for fossil fuel and nuclear energy sources. h. The state government should increase its efforts to convince financial institutions to reduce traditional residential loan qualifications to reflect tax credits and operating cost reductions associated with the new building standards. Resources: California Energy Commission and California Building Officials building code design manuals and training programs. County of San Diego passive solar design proiject (to be completed in FY83). SANDAG implementing packages on Removing Barriers to Solar Energy Use from Zoning Ordinances, Solar Water and Pool Heating, Solar Energy Site Plan Review and Solar Access. Conservation in Existing Housing {` a. Local governments should support statewide legislation that would require cost-effective "weatherization" of existing residential structures similar to the SANDAG model weatherization ordinance pre- pared in 1980-81. (AB 781 is currently being considered in the State Legislature.) If statewide legislatior is not adopted in 1982, local governments should adopt local weatherization ordinances, which require installation of cost-effective weatherization devices at time of sale. b. SDG&E and local governments should evaluate expanding utility financing of cost-effective residential conservation (see recomm.e.ndation on energy financing). ;i c. Local government: should work with local Community Based organizations, the State Office of Economic Opportunity, the State Energy Commission ##T and San Diego Gas and Electric Comm -any in coordinating the Low E� Income Home Energy Assistance Block Grant Program (cash payments and weatherization assistance), the Residential Conservation Service Program (SDG&E residential customer audits), and any state or locally mandated weatherization programs. SANDAG should seek funding for, and staff a coordinating committee made up of representatives of the appropriate responsible agencies. This group should develop #� plans and programs for coordinating the various weatherization efforts in the region and make recammendations to local implementing agencies and the state and federal governments for improving the effectiveness and coordination of weati.erization efforts and ' z low inccine assistance. Resources: SANDAG Implementation Package on Model Weatherization Ordinance. SANDAG Review of 1981 State Low Incommme Hone Energy Assistance Plan. z+ Conservation in Existip2 Munici221, Commercial and Industrial_Buildings a. Local governments should evaluate requiring energy audits and/or r installation of conservation hardware at time of sale for existing L 67 non-residential buildings. The evaluation should be undertaken in cooperation with SDG&E and the San Diego Chamber of Commerce Energy Task Force and other interested parties. SP.NDAG should seek funding, and support from SDG&E and the Chamber of Commerce, to carry out the evaluation. b. SDG&E and local governments should evaluate expanding utility financing of non-residential conservation, the use of public agency industrial development revenue bonds to assist -non-residential conservation and other innovative means of financing non-residential conservation (see recommendation on energy financing). h, c✓ The state and federal governments should continue some level of tax te . incentives for commercial and industrial sector investments in con- servation and efficiency improvements to ensure that public subsidies for conservation are comparable to those for fossil fuel and nuclear energy t sources. t Resources: SDG&E non-residential conservation and load management audit and pricing programs. Federal and state conservation loans for schools, hospitals .y. and public buildings. Ir Energy Efficient Street Lights ., •`;`' a. Local ;overnments in the noOhern half of the county hould convert .. street lights to low pressuressodium va or(DPSV) 1 , except at in h �whe high ►.» ,}I w� traffic lights er conversion" pressure, sodium vapor lamps (HPSV) may be required for distinguishing colors. LPSV lights have the least light pollution impact on Palomar Ob- servatory, which is directly effected by street lighting in North County. Local ,# governments in the southern half of the county should convert street lights to either LPSV or HPSV. Local govern -menu should require installation of new street lights to be LPSV; or HPSV, as recommended above. b. SDG&E should support the conversion of its existing street lights, .. and installation of its new street lights to LPSV and HPSV as recommended in a., above. Resources: State of California street light conversion loan program. Water Conservation and Reclamation a. Responsible state and local agencies should implement the water conservation programs recommended in the Water Conservation Plan for the San Diego Region adopted by the SANDPG Board in June 1981, and the water reclamation p:jjects listed in the "Areawide Water Quality Management Plan, Water Resources Element", also adopted by the SMAG Board in June 1981. Resources: County i"ater, Authority Information Program for water con- servation. Water Conservation Plan for the San Diego Region. 68 Solar Space Heating and Cooling and Water and Fool Heatin a. The California Energy Commission (CEC) should adopt the most energy efficient, cost-effective standards for new ncn-residential buildings. (It is expected that such standards would result in solar space and water heating being used to supplement existing conservation standards. The CEC has initiated the process of revising existing non-residential building standards.) b. Local governments should ensure that building officials have t� adequate training and staffing to assist builders and to carry out an effective inspection and enforcement program for non-residential w! building standards. c. Local governments should evaluate incorporating site and building design criteria into commercial and industrial development regulations which will allow solar space and water heating (particularly passive solar heating and day lighting) in new commercial and industrial development. In addition, local governments should evaluate requiring or encouraging legal guarantees to solar access in new commercial and industrial development. SANDAG should seek `unding to develop an "implementation package" containing the issues +s related to commercial and industrial solar site design and access as well as detailed guidelines, procedures and requirements. The implementation package should be developed with the assistance of an advisory eorrmittee including the San Diego Chanter of Commerce Eli Enemy Task Fmorce, SDG&E, local jurisdiction staffs and businesses and industries with experience in solar applications. d. local governments should develop legal guarantees to reasonable solar access in existing developments when solar space and water heaters are installed in existing residentiai and non-residential �* develolanent. SANDAG should seek funding to develop an "implemen- tation package" including issues, procedures and guidelines. Zhe development of the implementation package should be assisted by local government staffs, and the solar industry. ^' e. Local governments should monitor the ,nunicipal solar utility (MSU) program in Oceanside and the City of San Diego's proposed MSU ':. program design. If these programs prove successful, expansion to b. other localities and administrative coordination should be evaluated. SANDAG staff should monitor the Oceanside and San Diego programs and report to the SANDAG Board by January 1983 on the feasibility of expansion. f. The state and federal governments should continue same level of tax ' credit and incentives for commercial, industrial and residential investments in solar energy to ensure that public subsidies for solar energy are comparable to those for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. + Resources: California Energy Commission and California Building t. officials non-residential building standard manuals and training programs. t I 69 L Land Use and Transportation Planning for Energy Efficiency a. Local governments should periodically evaluate their land use and transportation planning program to ensure that policies, plans and plan implementation procedures encourage development to take advantage of opportunities for increased energy efficiency. For example, -� location of energy intensive uses adjacent to new or existing elec- tricity generation facilities to create opportunities for cogeneration. SANDAG should seek funding for an evaluation of energy efficiency opportunities in land use and transportation planning and implemen- tation for the region. The evaluation should result in policies and videlines for local governments. II. ELECTRIC GENERATION f. Nuclear a. The Nuclear Regulatory Cenmission should carefully resolve safety � and operating issues for San Onofre Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3 so they can be licensed for full operation. No further action on nuclear development should be considered until such time as safety and environmental problems with the present technology are resolved and state laws are changed to allow construction of new nuclear R plants. If and when this occurs, nuclear power should be reconsidered - as an alternative electric generating technology. Coal a. SDG&E should initiate, and local governments should support, action to preserve SDG&E's options for participation in future electricity ' generation development at the Blythe site (currently owned by SDG&E) � using coal technology or some proven, economically competitive and environmentally acceptable alternative. b. SDr&E, with the support of local government, should pursue strategies for financing the construction of a base load power plant at the Blythe site, independently, or with participation from other utilities. The development of this site should proceed as soon as technologically and financially practical, in order to meet electric demand growth in the 1990's and supplant existing oil and natural gas fired 4 generation. y„ c. SDG&E should monitor technology for developing synthetic fuels from coal for potential use as a fuel in the region. ] Purchased Power a. SDG&E, with the support of local governments, should continue to aggressively pursue contracts with other utilities for long term, guaranteed purchases of excess hydroelectric, coal, geothermal and j nuclear electricity for use in the San Diego region. a}g 70 CAI Geothermal a. SDG&E should continue to invest in the development of large scale, cost-effective geothermal power hi the Imperial Valley, with the assistance of other parties. However, SDG&E shou)-3 monitor progress on "commercialization" of this technology and the impact on c::pital available for investments in other technologies to make sure that geothermal "demonstrations" do not take priority over investment in more mature and less costly technologies. Cogeneration (Gas Turbines, Piston Engines, and Fuel Cells) a. Public agencies should evaluate installation of cogeneration plants at promising buildings and facilities through feasibility studies. b. Local governments should require consideration of oogeneration in environmental impact reports on large scale, high density developments such as residential condominiums, office buildings, shopping centers and industrial parks. SANDAG should seek funding to develop criteria for evaluating cogeneration potential in new and existing development and for developing a program for identifying potential cost-effective applications and encouraging implementa- tion through the provision of information. This program should involve local governments, SDG&E and representatives of facilities already successfully using cogeneration. c. SDG&E should continue its plans for commercial demonstrations of fuel cells and its assistance to customers interested in cogeneration. d. SDG&E, and the Public Utility Commission (PUC), should continue to develop natural aas rat-oc an-' oi.,..races triz; 4 Y cogenerators .� �� -:xi�n ces tor which are equitable and encourageYcogenerators to buy fuel and sell electricity at rates competitive with those available to SDG&E. e. SDG&E and local governments should evaluate utility financing of or investment in cogeneration, the use of public agency industrial development revenue bonds to assist cogeneration, and other innovative means of financing cogeneration projects (see recommendation on energy financing). f. The state and federal governments should continue some level of tax incentives for investments in alternative energy generation techno- logies in order to ensure that public subsidies for alternative technologies are comparable to those for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Solid Waste Resource Recovery a. The City and County of San Diego, with the cooperation of other local governments and SDG&E, should proceed with site selectim uvi ,] wduce to ener gy project. I£ possible, a site should be selected where the SANDER electric generation plant could cogenerate steam. 71 i b. As developmentt and operating experience is gained with SANDER, the i region's Solid Waste Management Program should study the feasibility of other solid waste to energy projects. c. The region's Solid Waste Management Program should continue to 3• evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expanded solid waste reduction ; j and recycling programs and implement them when economically feasible. Photovoltaic Electric Generation Systems a. SDG&E, along with the CEC, County of San uiego, and San Diego State University (SDSU), should continue its investigations and tests of photovoltaic technology and interfaces with the utility electric system. ; b. Local governments should evaluate the solar access requirements for distributed photovoltaic systems and incorporate them in evaluation and implementation of the solar site design and solar access F recommendations under 1981 Revised State Building Codes for New .» Housing and Solar Space Heating and Cooling and Water Heating. SANDAG should seek funding for developing additional solar, access criteria and procedures. This information should be developed with the participation of the SDSU and UCSD energy centers, SDG&E, the County of San Diego and other local governments. t� c. SDG&E and local governments should evaluate utility financing, or investment in central and distributed photovoltaic systems, the use of public agency industrial development revenue bonds to assist photovoltaic manufacturers locating in San Diego or small power producers using photovoltaics, expanding the MSU concept to include distributed photovoltaic systems, and other innovative means of financing photovoltaic systems if and when they become cost-effective (see recamiendation on enemy financing). d. The state and federal governments should continue some level of tax incentives for renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic cells tr to ensure that public subsidies for photovoltaic technology are comparable with those for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Wind Electri: Generating Systems a. Local governments, SDG&E, Indian tribes and other interested groups should complete the current CEC contract for specific site analysis for wind electric generation systems. Funds should be sought for! analysis of additional specific sites. b. The County of San Diego should continue to develop regulations to 9OV%= the construction of safe wind energy systems which have controlled environmental impacts. , c. The state and federal governments should continue some level of taxfj incentives for investment in renewable resource technologies like wind power to ensure that public subsidies for those technologies are comparable to those for fossil fuels and nuclear power. 72 rSmall Hydroelectric Power a. Local public agencies should continue to evaluate the feasibility q of and implement small hydroelectric generation in local water supply and treatment facilities. Biomass, Solar Tharmal, Ocean Thermal, :Nave Power and Solar Ponds a. SDG&E and other interested parties in the region should continue to monitor these technologies to determine if and when they will beoom competitive with other electric ;.:nerating technologies. b. Local public agencies should continue to evaluate and implement methane recovery from land fills and wastewater treatment facilities. c. SDSU, UCSD and other appropriate agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and SDG&E should seek funds to evaluate the feasibility of biomass energy production in the San 4} �i Diego region from chaparral harvesting or energy crops. III. ENERGY CONSERVATION AND SUPPLY FINANCING a. SDG&E, local governments, citizens and businesses should cooperate in evaluating the specific financing recommendations made for various conservation, solar and electric generation technologies. A financing strategy involving capital development and debt structure ' from utility, local governments, businesses, industries and households, and involving utility rates as they impact other factors, should evolve and be carried out through private financial markets and the �- Public Utilities Commission. 6. In order to develop the financing strategy, SDG&E should initiate and support an energy financing advisory group including representatives of local government, business, industry, and the -general public. This group would identify financing issues and develop ideas and reccinrem>dations for implementation by SDG&E and the PUC, local governments, and others. This process would help develop a mutual understanding of the financing needs of the various parties involved and should attempt to evolve a capital development and debt structure - strategy that will result in the most reliable, lowest cost energy system for the San Diego region and at the same time strengthen and stabilize the general economic standing of the region and of SDG&E. IV. TRANSPORTATICA ENERGY a. Responsible transportation planning and implementing agencies should put increased emphasis on evaluating ways to save energy, and recommendations for implementation should be made as part of SANDAG Transportation Plan updates. 73