HomeMy WebLinkAbout1983-04-19; City Council; 7355; Preliminary Series 6 Regional Growth ForecastI.
I CIT-3F CARLSBAD - AGEND, ALL U
PPELIKINARY SERIES 6 REGIONAL MTG. 4/19/83 GROWTH FOF.ECAST
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CITY MOR. 3-
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
For review and discussion only.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
On March 25, 1983, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) Board of Directors accepted for distribution the Preliminary Series
6 Regional Growth Forecasts. The original Carlsbad forecasts were
based on low household size projections. SANDAG has since corrected
the Carlsbad preliminary totals. Compare the following projections
with those contained in the attached Preliminary Series 6 Forecast:
P opu 1 at ion
Car lsbad
General Plan Area
Occupied Housing
Carlsbad General Plan Area
Total Ennlovment
2000 1980 1990 1995
13 , 60C 23,859 31,092 36 I 868
13 ,700 26,763 36 I 801 45,396
Carlsbad
General Plan Area
16,233 24,124 27 I 075 29 I 495
16 , 326 25 , 620 29 , 566 33 , 157
A member of the SANDAG staff, who was involved in producing the fore-
cast, will make a presentation on Preliminary Series 6.
FISCAL IMPACT:
No fiscal impact is associated with the Series Growth Forecasts.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT :
No environmental review is necessary.
EXHIBITS:
1. Preliminary Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts.
5OARD OF DIRECTORS
March 25,1983
PRELIMINARY SERlES 6 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECASTS
AGENDA REPORT No.: R-24
Introduction
On November 17, 1980, the SANDAG Board of Directors adopted the Series 5 Regional Growth Forecasts following action by each of the region's cities. At that time, the Board directed that the forecasts, which are used in all regional and most local planning projects, be updated every two years so that changes in plans, policies, and other factors affecting regional growth and its distribution could be assessed and evaluated.
The new Series 6 Forecasts, presented today, illustrate the likely distribution of 2.51 million people throughout the region in 1995; and 2.69 million by the end of this century. The distribution is a representation of the public policies in place today in the local General and Community Plans of the region's jurisdictions The "competition" for future urban growth and employment development as well as the interjurisdictional impacts of public policy changes can be observed in the future distribution of people, employment and land use activity. The forecasts allow the cities to evaluate the results of major decisions and plans on the region's future. ,
The Series 6 Forecasts are the product of a cooperative effort between the staff of SANDAG and each city in the region as well as the County of San Diego. They represent a consensus of local and regional Plans and the distribution of the
region's future growth to each jurisdiction based on those Plans. Therefore, it is
my
RECOMMENDATION
that the Board of Directors of the San Diego Association of Governments accept
for distribution the Preliminary Series 6 Regional Growth Forecast3 and direct staff to follow a schedule of local jurisdiction review and forecast refinement that
will result in final forecasts which are available for local jurisdiction action by August, and SANDAG Board action in September 1983.
Discussion
1. Regional Growth Totals.
Since their inclusion in the SANDAG work program in the early 1970's, the Regional Growth Forecasts have become a fundamental element of regional and local planning programs.
a' I
I.
The current process for producing the forecasts involves two major steps, the first of which is determining the total number of persons who will live in the region (for each year) between 1980 and 2000.
The Board of Directors has authorized the use of the Preliminary Series 6
Regional Forecast totals of population, employment and housing units as the culmination of this firststep. The regional totals were prepared based on current local policies regarding growth and a set of local and national assumptions developed in conjunction with the Series 6 Regional Growth Forecast Advisory Committee. The Committee represents a broad range of local expertise from both the public and private sectors and includes representatives from the State Department of Finance, State Economic Development Division, San Diego
Chamber of Commerce, school districts, economic and demographic consultants, and local jurisdiction staff. The assumptions are the most current available and represent the judgment of Committee members and staff regarding external factors that have an influence on this region's growth, but which are at least partially beyond the direct control of local decision-makers. These external factors include national economic conditions, federal and state tax rates, the size of the military establishment in the region, state finance policies, and trends in fertility and mortality rates. .
In fact, it is the general condition of the economy that has necessitated an update of the regional total forecasts for use in Series 6. In general, less growth will occur through 1986 than previously forecast because of the unexpected depth of the national recession. However, the long run regional forecast has changed very little. Thus, the total amount of growth forecast through the end of this century
is approximately the same, but the exact timing of its occurrence has changed.
Total population in the region is forecast to grow by 817,300 people between 1980
and 2000. This is an average population growth of 40,900 people per year (2.2% annually) and results in a total population in 2000 of 2,687,700.
2. Regional Growth Distribution.
The second step in the forecasting process is the future distribution of the total population and land use in the region in 1990, 1995 and 2000. This distribution is based on the existing plans and policies of the local jurisdictions as represented in
their General and Community Plans. Local staff interpret these plans to provide assumptions about the timing and type of basic public facility extensions which make up the infrastructure necessary for development. The local plan data are combined with planned transportation and transit facilities from the Regional Transportation Plan, the known availability of land which may accommodate industrial and other kinds of %asictl employment, land which is known to be unusable due to environmental or other constraints, the likely effect of public and private redevelopment activities, and a set of social and economic data for the various portions of the region. When combined in the forecasting process, all land available for development, between 1980 and 1990 for example, ffcompeteslf for
the distribution of future growth within a comprehensive set of assumptions which accurately replicate both the real market and public policies which regulate and direct development,
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3. Uses of the Forecasts
The Regional Growth Forecasts should be used as bases for:
a. City and County, community and capital facilities planning.
b. Planning by special purpose agencies and districts, such as the San Diego County Water Authority, Health Systems Agency, human resources agencies, school districts and water and sanitation districts. - '
c. All SANDAG studies and plans as described in the Overall Work Program, including clearinghouse review functions.
d. Preparation of federal and state grant applications by local agencies for population-serving public facilities.
4. Review and Adoption Schedule
The review period is important because it gives the opportunity for the citiesand
the County to see how their inputs have affected regional population distribution, and their own jurisdiction's growth. It also points out interjurisdictional impacts on growth. In the previous series of forecasts, for example, several major local policy changes occurred while the preliminary forecasts were being reviewed,
which affected the subsequent final forecasts. Observing the following schedule will result in final forecasts in July 1983.
o March 25, 1983 Present Preliminary Series 6 Forecasts to SANDAG Board.
o April, 1983 Present detailed preliminary forecast data to local staffs for review. Begin local jurisdiction council presentations of forecasts.
o Early June, 1983 Close of local jurisdiction review period.
o July, 1983 Presentation of Final Series 6 Forecasts to SANDAG Board.
o July-August, 1983 Local jurisdiction action on Forecasts.
o September, 1983 Proposal for adoption of Series 6 Forecasts by SANDAG Board as an element of the Regional Comprehensive Plan
n
RICHARD J. HUFF Executive Director
BY MAJOR STATISTICAL AREA AND CITY
* 1980-2000
Total Population by MSA ............. .Table 1
Occupied Dwelling Units by MSA ....... .Table 2
Total Population by Jurisdiction and
General Planning Area. ............. .Table 3
MARCH 1983
attached tables contain forecasts for the major statistical areas, cities and unincorpor- ires of the San Diego region. The forecasts are based on city and General Planning
of January, 1980.
rea (GPA) data are presented for eight cities. In these communities the
state recognized planning area substantially exceeds their 1980 corporate boundaries.
Most major development forecast for the planning area will occur only if public facility
and service extensions, and subsequent incorporation are approved by the city involved.
Consequently, forecasts for the GPA give a better estimate of likely future size for the
cities than would forecasts of new growth within current corporate boundaries.
I.
z MSA
Central r,:? .-
North City
South Suburban
East Suburban
North County
North County
East .
Eastcounty xt
Total Region
Y MAJOR STATISTICAL AREA (MSA)
1980' ; 1990
Change Change
1980-2000 1980-2000 1995 2000 (numeric) (percent)
495,500 524,300
436,300 575,800
195,600 276,500
33 1,300 386,400
197,300 272,300
191,700 266,100
14,100 18,000
1,861,800 2,3 19,400
525,600 52 7,900 32,400 6.5
47.6 608,700 643,800 207,500
304,700 332,800 137,200 70.1
.
-
419,000 441,900 1 10,600 33.4
3 18 ,900 354,600 157,300 79.7
31 7,300 365,600 173,900 90.7
19,000 21,100 7,000 49.6
2,513,800 2,687,700 825,900 44.4
' 1980 United States Census
TABLE 2
OCCUPIED DWELLING UNITS BY MAJOR STATISTICAL AREA (MSA) 1980 - 2000
MSA 1980'
Central 180,800
North City 161,200
South Suburban 64,600
East Suburban 1 19,900
North County 68,000
West
North County 70,300
East
East County 5,300
Total Region 670,100
' 1980 United States Census
1990
197,600
21 6,700
91,000
139,800
1 10,600
100,500
6,900
863,100
1995 2000
199,800 204,200
233,200 250,200
101,400 1 12,200
157,700 169,400
130,500 150JOO
126,000 147,900
7,400
956,000 1,042,800
(numeric)
23,400
89,000
47,600
49,500
82,700
77,600
2,900
372,700
Change Change 1980-2000 1980-2!IoO
(percent)
12.9
55.2
73.7
41.3
121.6
110.4
54.7
55.6
J*i.
-I
E3 BY JURISDICTION
2000
Change
1980-2000
1 9801 1990 1995 2000 (numeric)
35,500 58,100 71,800 8 1,300 45 ,800 129.0
175.5 I I
35,m 66,500 86,400
83,900
116,5tW
99,300
153,500
1 02,300
165,5&J
106,300
176,6300
22,400
60,100
26.7 -
51.6
. Chula Vista
GPA
28.6 22,000 22,300 3,500 Coronado 18,800 2 1,800
- 6.0 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 - 300 Del Mar
El Cajon -.
GPA
12.2
15.1
73,900
101,Ooo
80,100
112#200
82,100
1 15,300
90,000
140,300
82,900
1 16,300
9,000
15,300
Escondido
GPA
64,400
83,300
88,200
125,700
90,200
148,300
25,800
65,000
40.1
78.0
Imperial Beach 22,700 24,700 25,000 25,600 2,900
La Mesa 50,30C 54,000 54,400 54,000 3,700
12.8
7.4
Lemon Grove 20,800 25,400
National City 48,800 5 1,500
25,400 25,100 4,300 20.7
3,300 51,500 52,100 6.8
Oceanside 76,700 100,000
GPA 77,900 101,900
poway 3 33,300 50,400
1 18,900
122,800
133,700
139200
57,000
61,3300
74.3
78.7
59,500 63,900 30,300 90.2
San Diego 875,500 1,051,200
~antee3 40,700 52,900
1,087,000 1,136,200 260,700 29.8
57,400 59,300 18,500 45.3
San Marcos 17,500 24,800
GPA -- 25,900 37,000
31,500
48,300
37,300
SBW
19,800
28g00
1 1 j300
35,400
113.1
1 t 1.6
Vista
GPA
35,800 40,300
48,400 57,600
45,000
68,600
47,i ao
83,8OU
31.6
73. 1
Unincorporated 358,200 491,800 585,200 665,700 307,900 86.1
2,513,800 825,900 44.4 Total Region 1,861,800 2,319,400 2,687,700
' 1980 United States Census.
*/GPA) General Planning Area, please see index. I
Poway and Santee were not incorporated in 1980. -.
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I
ING UNITS BY JURISDICTION
Change Change
1980-2000 1980-2000
2000 (numeric) (percent)
Carlsbad .
GPA~
26,700 . 34,300 40,300 26,700 196.3 13,600
13,700 31,209 42,300 50,300 36,600 267.2
30,400 37,800
4 1,900 57300
40,300
63,400
43,400
69,400
13,000
27,500
42.8
65.6
Chula Vista
GPA
Coronado
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
National City
Oceanside
GPA
Poway 3
6,800 8,700 9,000 9,500 2,700 39.7
2,300 2,300
28,400 31 ,OOO
37,090 42,600
2,300 2,300 0 .o
32,500
44,700
33,600
4S'm
5,200
9,000
18.3
24.3
, 11,200
26,200
25,000 34,200
3 1,ooO 47,700
7;800 8,800
35,400 "m 36,200
57,200
44.8
86.8
9,200
24,000
9,800
24,200
2,000 25.6
2 1,600 23,400
7,300 8,800
14,300 - 15,600
29,000 39,900
29,509 40,500
2,600 12.0
8,900 8,900
16,000
1,600 21.9
16,600 2,300 16.1
49,200
50,600
57,100
59200
28,100
29,700
96.9
100.7
10,300 1 6,700 20,300 22,400 12,100 117.5
San Diego 321,100 388,000 405,500 427,500 106,400 33.1
sand 13,300 17,300 19,100 20,100 6,800 51.1
San Marcos
GPA
6,200 10,100
9#8@ 15,400
13,300
20,700
16,000
23,200
9,800
14, ZOO
158.1
143.9
Vista
GPA
13.,700 16,400 18,800 20,000 6,300 46.0
78,000 23,500 28,600 35,700 17,700 98.3
- Unincorporated 1 19,000 177,400 217,900 254,900 135,900 114.2
Total Region 670,100 863,100 956,000 1,042,800 372,700 55.6
1980 United States Census.
'(GPA) General Planning Area, please see index.
Poway and Santee were not incorporated in 1980.
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