HomeMy WebLinkAbout1984-01-10; City Council; 7603; Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts46# 7hQ3
1-10-84
DEPT. R/A Group
Adopt Resolution No. 7q63 , approving Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts with the qualifications contained therein.
TITLE
SERIES 6 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECASTS
ITEM EXPLANATION:
San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is asking local governments to formally adopt the Final Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts. After a sufficient number of local adoptions, the SANDAG Board is expected to adopt Series 6 as part of the Reg- i onal Comprehensi ve P1 an.
Research/Analysis Group has reviewed the forecast numbers. reservations regarding the category totals, we think that the long range population and housing forecasts for the "General Plan Area" (GPA) are reasonable. The GPA numbers more accurately reflect added growth in areas which will undoubtedly be annexed between now and 2000 than do the forecasts for the incorporated city.
Although we have some
The Series 6 should only be used as an indicator of long range growth trends. The City' s Pub1 i c Faci 1 i ti es Management System (PFMS) which tracks devel opment should be used for all short term projections and as a basis for CIP planning.
In the past SANDAG was committed to updating the Series Forecasts every two years. Budgetary problems and time constraints have altered this policy. policy calls for SANDAG staff to update the Series Forecasts at the request of the SANDAG Board. whenever conditions change that could affect the accuracy of Series 6. there is no guarantee of this, Series 6 should be adopted and certified for a 2-year period. PFMS projections. At the end of the 2-year period, and if SANDAG hasn't requested a Series update, the City could either recertify Series 6, or officially disapprove of its use relative to Carlsbad.
The current
It is hoped that the SANDAG Board will call for a Series update Since
During the 2 year-period the Series 6 Forecast numbers can be checked against
FISCAL IMPACT:
There is no fiscal impact resulting directly from this action.
EXHIBITS :
1. Final Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts 1980-2000 for the City, General Plan Area, and Region.
2. Resolution No. If'63 approving Series 6 with qualif.ications contained therein.
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RESOLUTION NO. 7463
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF
CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING FOR A PERIOD OF
- TWO YEARS THE SERIES 6 POPULATION FORECASTS FOR THE CITY GENERAL PLAN AREA FOR USE IN THE REGIONAL
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AND OTHER REGIONAL AND LOCAL
PLANNING NEEDS
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has worked with the San Diego Association of
Governments (SANDAG) to update the Regional Growth Forecasts for the San Diego
Region using available 1980 Census information and current State Department of
Finance information and the City's Public Facilities Management System (PFMS);
and
WHEREAS, the Forecasts are based on the approximate size of the current
General Plan Area; and
WHEREAS, the Forecasts recognized that growth in the City was not limited
to certain areas at certain times; and
WHEREAS, the City has the PFMS which monitors development and makes short
term projections on population and housing; and
WHEREAS, the Forecasts show the likely long term growth of the City's
population and undifferentiated housing based on the expected implementation of
the General Plan between 1980 and 2000; and
WHEREAS, the Forecasts are based on current regional growth condi ti ons
which may change in the future; and
WHEREAS, the Forecasts will be used by SANDAG in all regional plans to
assure their consistency and accuracy; and
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad intends to consider the Forecasts along
with the PFMS for regional and local planning needs;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of
Carlsbad hereby:
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1. Adopts the Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts for the General Plan Area
only as follows:
Total Population
Total Occupied Housing Units
1990
75,265
31,636
-
2. Certifies their use as akapted by
1995
92,134
40,194
- 2000
107,327
48,003
-
IDAG for all reg onal stud,es and plans
described in FY 83-84 Overall Work Program and subsequent Work Programs for a
period of two (2) years;
3. Accepts the Series 6 Population Forecasts as valid for two (2) years only.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad
ad 'ourned at ahegu?lar meeting held the 10th day of J~~U~XV , 1984 by the
following vote to wit:
AYES: Council Casler, Lewis, Kulchin, Chick and Prescott
NOES: None
ABSENT: None
y- J' &--
MARY H. dSLER, Mayor
ATTEST :
ALETHA L. RAUTENKRANZ, City Clerk
(SEAL)