HomeMy WebLinkAbout1988-11-08; City Council; 9716; SANDAG Regional Growth ManagementCI‘-OF CARLSBAD - AGENr BILL bi
LB# SANDAG REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT POPULATION FORECAST SERIES VI I/FIVE- YEAR HOUSING FORECASTS
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
1. Adopt the Series VI1 population forecast 1986-2010 for local planning use (2010 estimate: 110,820 persons).
2. Receive the final report on the Series VI1 Regional Growth Forecast five-year housing total of 1,348 units per year (1-1-88 to 12-31-93) and recommended that SANDAG be requested to begin to establish specific public facility performance standards to be used to more accurately address the impacts of growth.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
The final SANDAG Series VI1 has been completed and the City is being asked to adopt this forecast. It is recommended Council adopt this forecast for
1986-2010 to replace the previously adopted Series VI forecast for local and mgional planning activities.
In addition, SANDAG is requesting the Series VI1 regional growth forecast five-year housing total of 1,348 units per year be adopted to guide the issuance of building permits (1-1-89 to 12-31-93). The City’s Growth Management Program utilizes dwelling unit and population projections as part of the program although, the overall objective is to equate the amount of growth, both residential and non-residential, to the provision of public facilities. impacts of growth, the City Council is being asked to receive the final report but not to adopt these projections as a guide to the issuance of future building permits.
Because dwelling unit caps do not adequately address the
This same request was made as part of an earlier SANDAG’s report on Regional Growth Management.
The City Council accepted that earlier SANDAG report on regional growth management on May 24, 1988. That report contai ned five recommendat ions :
1. Adopt the Series VI1 Population Forecast (to the year 2010), and the first five years (1989-1994) of the Series VI1 Housing Forecast as policies for building permit activity by each jurisdiction.
2. Enact (in its final form) the “Sensitive Lands Initiative” currently being proposed in the City of San Oiego and unincorporated areas of the county, as a coordinated and consistent policy for preserving sensitive and natural resource lands in all jurisdictions.
3. Authorize development of new coordinated policies for financing regional serving public facilities and resources.
4. Authorize development of a regional strategy to promote a better balance of population with employment opportunities in the regional communities.
Agenda Bill No. 7716 Page 2
5. Authorize a comprehensive regional growth monitoring and annual reporting system that would address : availability, and growth impacts upon the San Diego Region. regional resource qual i ty and
Recommendations 3, 4, and 5 involved authorization from the SANDAG Board and did not involve action by the City Council. Regarding recommendations 1 and
2, SANDAG requested that member agencies accept these as policies to better manage and coordinate growth on a regional basis. It is staff’s belief that the overall goal of coordinating and managing growth throughout San Diego County is needed and, as such, recommended that the City Council accept the SANOAG recommendation as a positive initial step in that direction and to receive the final report. However, staff and the Planning Commission recommended at that time that the City Council make a recommendation to SANDAG to take the next step in this process which would be for communities to agree on specific public facility performance standards.
It is recommended that the City Council receive the report as finalized establishing the five-year projections, but not adopted as policy guides and that SANDAG Board be requested to begin considering the development of specific public facility performance standards which more effectively deal with the impacts of growth.
SANDAG has also requested the City Manager appoint a member of staff to serve on the Regional Open Space Plan - Technical Advisory Committee. This committee will develop consistent sensitive lands policies to deal with the preservation and management of steep slopes, flood plains, and wetland areas. staff representative and Charles Grimm as an alternate. The City Manager has appointed Michael Holzmiller as the City’s
FISCAL IMPACT:
None at this time, although staff time will be expended as part of the Regional Open Space Plan - Technical Advisory Committee.
EXHIBITS :
1. Letter to Ray Patchett from Kenneth Sulzer, SANDAG, dated 9-8-88. 2. Series VI1 1986-2010 Table.
3. Final Series VI1 Regional Growth Forecast Information Packet. 4. Agenda Report No. R-58, SANDAG, dated 8-26-88. 5. Memo from Planning Director to City Manager, dated 5-19-88
EXHIBIT 1
. SanDiego
ASSOCLATION OF
GOVERVMENTS
Suite 524, Security Pacific Plaza
1200 Third Avenue
San Diego. California 92101
(619) 236-5300
Ray Patchett, City Manager City of Carlsbad
1200 Elm Avenue
Carlsbad, CA 2008
Dear Mr. P w
In August the SANDAG Board of Directors voted to approve a final set of Regional Growth Management Recommendations and have requested that the member jurisdictions enact two of these important coordinated public policies. These
actions are intended to provide a consistent thread of pro-active and cooperative
policy through the growth management plans of all the jurisdictions; they
concentrate on meeting housing needs while addressing the growth rate, and
development of common policies for dealing with the region's sensitive lands. The
attached Board Report (R-58) details the August action and the process employed in development of the final recommendations.
Please consider proposing an action on these items to vour Council soon so that the
region's iurisdictions can demonstrate a cooperative stance on growth
rnanacement. We hope to report local actions to the SANDAG Board at its October 28 meeting.
o Establish use of the five vear housing unit total from the Series 7 Regional Growth Forecasts as policies to guide your cities issuance of building permits for the five years from 1/1/89 - 12/31/93. Several jurisdictions have already
acted on this policy and their actions are described in the attachment.
SANDAG is in the process of scheduling a meeting for cities with Spheres of
Influence and County staff to discuss how those cities will deal with annexa-
tions which potentially change their five year forecast, and how permit issuance from 1989-1994 will be accomplished within the cities' Spheres. We
will be in touch with you about this.
o Accept the final Revised Series 7 Forecasts through 2010 for use in local planning by your jurisdiction. This information was sent to you on August 1 with the request that the city not take action until the Board had considered
the Growth Management Recdmmendations.
MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista. Coronado, Del Mar, El Cajon, Encinitas, Escondido, Imperial Beach, La Mesa,
Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside, Poway, San Diego, San Marcos, Santee, Solana Beach, Vista and County of San Diego.
ADVISORY/LIAISON MEMBERS: California Department of Transportation, US. Department of Defense and TijuandBaja California Norte.
Page 2
o Appoint a member of your staff to serve on the Regional Open Space Plan - Technical Advisory Committee. This is the committee discussed in Growth Management Recommendation 2 which calls for development of consistent
sensitive lands policies to deal with preservation and management of steep
slopes, floodplains, and wetland areas.
I would be happy to discuss these recommended local actions with you; and SANDAG staff is ready to meet with your Council to answer questions that they may have about the recommendations. If you have specific questions about the Series 7 Forecasts, please contact Jeff Tayman at 236-5374. Questions regarding
the Growth Management Recommendations may be directed to Rick Alexander at
236-5370.
Thank you for your attention to this important matter and please let us know when your Council has scheduled action and if we may be of assistance.
KES/RA/sl
Attachment
cc: Hon. John J. Mamaux, Councilman Mr. Michael Holzmiller
EXHIBIT 2
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Contents:
FINAL SERIES 7
REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST
INFORMATION PACKET
CITY OF CARLSBAD
-4
o
o Definition of Terms
Background and Summary of Trends
*****
o Cordon Area Profile
o
o
o
Total Population by Jurisdiction and Sphere of Influence
Occupied Housing Units by Jurisdiction and Sphere of Influence
Civilian Employment by Jurisdiction and Sphere of Influence
*****
EXHIBIT 3
o City Profile
o Sphere of Influence Profile
.-
SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS FINAL SERIES 7 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST
BACKGROUND. Series 7 is a long-range growth forecast that calculates changes in population, housing, and employment in the San Diego region from 1986 to 2010. It indicates how much growth will occur regionwide and where it will be distributed. The regionwide forecast is based primarily on national, state, and local trends in
economics, migration, fertility, and mortality. The local distribution of growth -- or subarea forecast -- is based primarily on the availability of land for housing and
employment. Series 7 updates and replaces Series 6, which covered 1980 through
2000.
DATA BASE. The data base for Series 7 includes historical information dating back to 1960, a 1985 inventory of employment in the region, a 1986 inventory of existing land uses, current population and housing estimates, plans for future highways and transit, and the General and Community Plans of the region's cities and unincorpo- rated area. This is the first forecast in which the local plans have been directly incorporated into the geographic information system used to identify developable
land. Data from the Plans include vacant acreage by land use type, land con-
strained from future development, areas planned for redevelopment, and all growth management strategies that were in effect when the regionwide and subarea fore- casts were prepared. The geographic information system is structured to produce the forecast for any area in the western half of the region. The input data from the Plans are documented in the publication "Final Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Land Use Inputs."
FORECAST MODELS. The regionwide forecast is prepared by means of a computer model that links population and employment growth. The model replicates the
creation of jobs that attract workers and their families into the region. It also
takes into account trends in non-work related migration and the number of births and deaths to be expected. The subarea forecast is prepared with a model that replicates how market competition and public policies direct the development of industrial, com mercial, and residential land. It takes into account transportation access to an area as well as the type and density of development to be allowed. Further information and technical documentation are detailed in two publications: "Overview of the Regional Growth Forecasting System" and "Technical Users Manual for PLUM and SOAP."
LOCAL REVXEW. This final forecast reflects the comments received from a com- prehensive local review of the preliminary forecast which occurred between December 1987 and June 1988. Local review is essential to the forecast process.
The direct involvement of local jurisdiction staffs in preparing the inputs and
reviewing the outputs results in the most accurate replication of each jurisdiction's current plans and policies. The major factors, included in this final revision, which surfaced during the local review include: General or Community Plan amendments or complete revisions, more precise replication of housing unit capacities specified in a Plan, adjustments to base year data in sparsely populated rural areas, and refinements to the computer models to more accurately reflect the absorption of low density single family land (less than 1 unit per acre) in the unincorporated areas.
REGIONWIDE FORECAST. The regionwide forecast indicates that population will
grow from 2.1 million in 1986 to 3.1 million in 2010 -- an increase of 1 million
persons. About three-fourths of the increase will be due to job-related migration,
which will be driven by the addition of over 555,000 civilian jobs to the region. The remaining increase is due to natural increase (births minus deaths), which is ex- pected to slow as the population ages. Over the period, the average annual increase
will be about 41,000 persons. This is about 31 percent lower than the average since
1980 and 48 percent lower than that of the last two years. Occupied housing units are expected to increase from 765,000 to over 1.2 million, and civilian employment will rise from 910,000 to over 1.5 million. About 181,000 acres of land will be
developed in the process, including about 162,000 acres for housing and about
19,000 acres €or employment. (The housing figure includes 104,000 acres developed at densities less than one unit per acre.)
SUBAREA FORECAST. Regionwide, the ratio of population and employment growth will be about 2 to 1, but it varies in each of the region's major statistical areas (MSA). The Central MSA, which currently has the most population and employment in the region, is expected to gain significantly more jobs (93,700) than persons (65,200). The North City MSA, which is a close second to the current totals
in the Central MSA, will gain more persons (245,800) than jobs (189,000); it also will
absorb about one-third of the regionwide employment increase, and one-fourth of
the population increase. The two North County MSAs will take in more than a third
of the region's total population growth and will gain 2.6 times as many persons
(380,500) as jobs (146,900). The South Suburban MSA will gain more than twice as many persons (141,300) as jobs (59,900), as will the East Suburban area (151,600 persons and 65,600 jobs). Forecasts for individual jurisdictions and smaller subareas are available through SANDAG.
SERIES 7 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST
Data tabulated in these summaries are derived from the Final Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast. This long-range forecast is being proposed for acceptance by the local jurisdictions in the region and by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) for use in local and regional planning. The forecast is based on current land use and growth policies adopted by the region's local governments.
The Final Series 7 forecast extends over a 24-year period from 1986 to the year
2010. January 1, 1986 estimates are used as base year data for the population,
housing, and land use variables. The base year population and housing data do not reflect the revisions to the 1986 estimates made by the state Department of Finance in May, 1988. Annual average employment estimates for 1985 are used as base year data for the employment forecasts.
DEFINITION OF TERMS
GEOGRAPHIC AREAS
Sphere of Influence Areas: LAFCO defined planning areas for certain cities. These areas extend beyond the January 1, 1986 corporate boundaries for 11 jurisdictions in San Diego County: Carlsbad, Chula Vista, El Cajon, Encinitas, Escondido, National City, Oceanside, Poway, San Marcos, Solana Beach, and
Vista.
Community Plan Areas (CPA): Planning subareas in the unincorporated portion of the Countv and in the City of San Diego. There were 54 CPAs in the City of San Diego aid 22 CPAs in the unincorpor&ed area as of January 1, 1986. -
Census Tracts (CT): There are 380 census tracts officially defined, in 1980, by the U.S. Bureau of the Census covering San Diego County. These areas repre- sent relatively homogeneous neighborhoods containing approximately 4,000 people and 2,000 housing units.
Zones for Urban Modeling (ZUM). ZUMs are groups of census tracts or TAZs
within a jurisdiction's January 1, 1986 corporate boundary or their sphere of
influence-area. For the City-of San Diego, the ZUMs conform to CPA bound- aries. There are 161 ZUMs within the western half of the region.
Template. These areas represent either a jurisdiction, sphere of influence, or City of San Diego or County of San Diego CPA. The template was used as
reference geography during the land use inputs gathering phase of Series 7.
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ): These areas are subdivisions of census tracts
developed jointly by CALTRANS and SANDAG for use in traffic analysis
studies. These 759 zones represent relatively homogeneous land uses and trip-
making characteristics.
Gridcell: 2,000' by 2,000' matrix of cells covering the San Diego region. There are approximately 16,000 land based gridcells within the western half of the region.
Master Geographic Reference Area (MGRA): This geographic unit represents a
gridcell split by jurisdiction, sphere of influence, TAZ, and City of San Diego
and County of San Diego CPA boundaries. There are approximately 25,000 MGRAs within the western half of the region.
POPULATION
Total: Persons living in single family or multiple family housing units, mobile homes, group quarters facilities, or aboard military ships.
Household: Persons living in single family or multiple family housing units or mobile homes.
Group Quarters:
ships, jails, convalescent homes, college dormitories, and boarding houses.
Persons living in facilities such as military barracks or
OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS
Total: not vacant. Includes units owned or leased by the military. Single and multiple family housing units and mobile homes which are :
Single Family: One unit attached and detached occupied housing units. A one unit attached structure has one or more walls extending from ground
to roof separating it from adjoining structures (Census Bureau definition).
Multiple Family: Two or more occupied housing units in a structure.
Mobile Homes: include recreation vehicles. Mobile homes in parks or on private lots. This does not
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
Household Size: This is calculated by: Household Population/Occupied Housing Units. The average number of persons in an occupied housing unit.
EMPLOYMENT
Total: civilian workers and all in-service military personnel. Average annual employment based on the place of work. Includes
Civilian: Includes all classes of civilian basic and local serving employment: private, self employed, and government. Civilians employed on military bases are included in the state and federal government category under basic employ men t.
Basic: Employment which produces goods and services purchased pri- marily by buyers from outside the region. The following two-digit
Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC) are included in basic employment:
Agriculture and Mining (SIC 1-14) Manufacturing (SIC 20-39) Wholesale (SIC 50, 51) Transportation (SIC 40, 42, 44-47) Hotels and Motels (SIC 70) State and Federal Government (SIC 90-92)
Local Serving: Employment which produces aoods and services purchased
primarily by local households and businesses." The following two-digit SICS
are included in local serving employment:
Retail Trade (SIC 52-59) Retail Services (SIC 72, 75-86) Business Services (SIC 73, 89) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (SIC 60-67) Local Government (SIC 93, 94) Other Local Serving (Construction and Local Serving Transpor- tation: SIC 15-17, 41, 48, 49)
Uniformed Military: In-service military personnel working on military bases.
LAND USE ACREAGE
Tot'al: Developed and vacant land expressed in acres.
Total Developed: Land developed for residential purposes, employment and current (1986) freeways. Developed acreages are gross acres because they include ancillary uses such as grounds, parking, and local streets. Roads identi-
fied in the general plan circulation elements, except for current freeways, are - not included in the developed land use categories.
Residential: Land developed with single family or multiple family housing
units or mobile homes. The land may be private or publicly owned. In-
cludes residential development on military bases and rural residential land that will not be made available for future urban development.
Non-residential: Land developed with basic or local serving employment activities in both private and public ownership. Includes employment development on military bases and agricultural or mining land that will not be made available for future development.
1986 Freeway: Current (1986) divided roadways with four or more lanes, restricted access, grade separations, and rights-of-way more than 200 feet
wide. Includes interchange areas but not frontage roads. Land designated for future freeways is included in the unusable category.
Vacant: All land except the specific developed categories listed above, in- cludes both unusable land and land available for future residential and employ- ment activities.
Developable: Vacant land available for future residential and employment
activities. Developable land is divided into six categories:
Low Density Single Family: Land available for single family residen- tial development on lots greater than one acre in size.
Single Family: Land available for single family residential devel- opment with densities typically between 1 and 8 dwelling units per acre.
Multiple Family: Land available for multiple family residential
development. Includes all residential plan designations that allow higher densities than that of single family.
Mixed Use: development or local serving employment activity.
Land available for either multiple family residential
Commercial:
ment activity.
not per mi t ted.
Land available exclusively for local serving employ- Residential development or basic employment are
Industrial: Land available for either basic or local serving employ-
ment. Residential development is not permitted.
Unusable: Vacant land not available for future development. This in- cludes land constrained within a general plan and land considered not developable because of steep slopes, public ownership, flood areas, ripar- ian habitat, transmission line easements, etc. Vacant land designated for residential use within the 65 decibel noise contour around airports is
constrained. Undeveloped land on military bases is also unusable. Addi-
tionally, lands reserved for future freeways and non-freeway roads identi-
fied in the circulation elements are included in this category.
Note: Small amounts of unusable land were designated for site-specific residential and employment projects during the first two forecast incre- ment (1986-1995 and 1995-2000). This accounts for any decrease in unus- able acres noted in the tables.
DENSITIES
Gross Employment Density: Civilian Employment/Non-Residential Developed
Acres.
Gross Residential Density: Occupied Housing UnitdResidential Developed
Acres.
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Sari Diego Association of Governments
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
August 26, 1988
REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
In February, the Board of Directors voted to distribute a set of Draft Regional Growth Management Recommendations for review and comment. Prepared by the staff, the recommendations are in response to growing concern throughout this region and Southern California about the impacts of growth on public facilities, public finances, and the
environment. The recommendations are intended to provide basic, consistent, and coor-
dinated regional policies upon which cities and the County can draft growth management plans and policies which meet local needs. Three jurisdictions have already incorporated the draft recommendations into local plans.
In July, the Board approved development of a final set of recommendations in two impor- tant areas: (1) meeting regional housing needs while managing the growth rate, and (2) pursuing coordinated protection of environmentally sensitive lands regionwide.
Staff has met with elected officials, staff members, and other interested groups from all
of the region's general purpose agencies to discuss the proposed cooperative growth
management actions and this process has produced the two final recommendations which are before the Board today. It is, therefore, my
RECOMMENDATION
that the Board of Directors of the San Diego Association of Governments recommend enactment of the following two policies by the member jurisdictions as a basis for consis- tent and coordinated local growth management plans, and that this Board report be accepted for distribution to those same agencies to serve as guidelines for development and implementation of the recommended actions.
1. Accept the final Series 7 population forecasts (to 2010) and the first five years
(1989-1994) of the final Series 7 housing unit forecast as policies for determining residential building permit activity by each jurisdiction.
2. Enact coordinated and consistent local policies to significantly limit development
and alteration of lands on steep slopes, in floodplains and wetlands. Direct staff to pursue cooperative development of these sensitive lands policies together with a set of consistent definitions for action before July 1989.
The Board of Directors is also asked to reaffirm support of Regional Growth Management Recommendations 3, 4 and 5 which will develop draft policies as a part of the FY 1989 Overall Work Program.
3. Authorize development of new coordinated policies for financing region- serving public facilities and resources.
4. Authorize development of a regional strategy to promote a better balance of population with employment opportunities in the region's communities.
5. Authorize a comprehensive regional growth monitoring and annual reporting
system that would address: regional resource quality and availability, and
growth's impacts on the San Diego region.
Discussion
RECOMMENDATION 1: HOUSING NEEDS
The need to establish a consensus on a manageable rate of regional growth, and provide
for needed housing has emerged as a primary issue in the San Diego region. The regiop's
growth rate from 1983-87 (an average of 61,000 persons per year/about 3.1%) has taxed
the ability of governmental agencies to meet environmental and facility provision
demands, accelerated crowding of public and private facilities, and generated growth management policy actions by most of the region's general purpose agencies in response to public interest in "doing something about rapid growth.''
The Regional Growth Forecasts represent the amount of growth the region is likely to
have, based on a combination of local, state, and national demographic and economic trends. Since 1972, the Forecasts have accurately predicted the region's total growth. An "average" year of these Forecasts represents a growth rate that public and private entities have traditionally been able to deal with, and one in which environmental and economic safeguards need not be exceeded. By adopting the dwelling unit totals devel- oped as a part of the Forecasts for a five-year period, and using these as public policies to guide building permit activity, cities and the County meet their housing needs at a rate that avoids adverse economic and environmental impacts and does not impose artifi-
cial caps on local housing development.
In order to implement this recommendation, each jurisdiction would accept a total
number of dwelling units for the five-year period from 1989-1994 based on the Series 7 Forecasts for those years. The Forecasts, which predict occupied housing, have been adjusted upward to account for vacancy rates, and further refined to include demolitions and to account for mobile homes in the housing stock.
Table 1 includes 1988 population and housing data for each jurisdiction and housing authorization and completion data for 1987, a year of very rapid growth. The table also shows the 1989-94 dwelling unit totals based on final Series 7 which the jurisdictions are being asked to consider. It also lists the average annual forecast of total housing need for each jurisdiction over those five years.
RECOMMENDATION 2: REGIONALLY CONSISTENT SENSITIVE LANDS POLICIES
The second near-term Regional Growth Management Recommendation is to enact a coordinated and consistent policy to ensure preservation of sensitive lands and natural resources, and to commit to a timetable for final development of these policies.
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Second to transportation problems, the public perceives the change in the region's face as
the most disagreeable impact of rapid growth. Development of slopes and floodplains, loss of sensitive lands, excessive grading and filling, habitat clearing and view encroach- ments are the most commonly mentioned adverse impacts. While all jurisdictions have exaction and dedication requirements for open space in conjunction with development,
and many have overlay zones or other regulations to protect specific resources, no regionally consistent sensitive lands policies exist. Enactment of coordinated policies on
a regionwide basis would more effectively respond to the public's concern and greatly facilitate the region's ability to plan and manage open space and sensitive land areas which cross jurisdictional boundaries. This recommendation, regarding a regionally consistent sensitive lands policy, is proposed in response to analyses of current citizen
initiatives, recent actions on the part of the City and County of San Diego and other
jurisdictions.
o
In order to implement the sensitive lands recommendation, the region's jurisdictions must
commit to a cooperative process to develop common policies.
Local Implementation of Sensitive Lands Policies
Implementation of sensitive lands preservation policies should include flexibility for the
local jurisdictions. Consistent definitions are important, however, if the public, the development industry, and government are to benefit fully from similar public policies -- the idea of everyone playing by the same rules. The most important areas of definition
are:
- Steep Slopes - There is general agreement that slopes of 25% or greater should
be subject to protection. The major questions are how the slope is measured,
how large a slope area needs to be to qualify, and whether or not adjacent land
is included. Only six jurisdictions have current or proposed policies which identify specific actions to deal with 25%+ slopes.
- Floodplains - Again, there is agreement that 100-year floodplains should be protected; however, these areas have been defined differently by local and federal agencies and consistent maps need to be agreed upon.
- Wetlands - Generally, the wetlands mapped on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
National Wetland Inventory Maps are included for preservation, but questions remain about additional lands and appropriate buffer areas.
Local prerogatives can be applied to consistent definitions at the option of the jurisdic- tion. Permitted uses, mitigation, status of development rights, transferability of devel- opment rights, applicability of ordinances to parcels only partially identified as sensitive, effect of pre-existing alterations to the land, policies for acquisition of sensitive lands, and methods of fixing lands true value are all important local planning considerations and are beyond the scope of the effort described in this report.
Development of guidelines for coordinated local actions will be included in the Regional Open Space Plan Update (OWP 105.04). The Regional Open Space Plan Review Commit- tee should be formed soon representing all the jurisdictions with the goal of developing consistent definitions, policy coordination, regional resource mapping, and other proce- dures as well as completing the detailed evaluation of what each of the jurisdictions is already doing through existing policies. At the direction of the Board of Directors, this work will be completed by July, 1989.
4
. o Focus of the Sensitive Lands Recommendation
The regional recommendation is intended to provide a consistent sensitive lands policy
which restricts development on steep slopes, in floodplains and in wetland areas. Recommendations for protection of other sensitive lands and natural resources, such as historical, cultural, archaeological, paleoentological, and biological speciedhabitats are not included because current regulations (Le., California Environmental Quality Act, Endangered Species Act, Clean Water Act, specific local regulations, etc.), when prop- erly implemented, adequately protect these resources.
o Impact of Sensitive Lands Policies Regionwide
Analysis of the implementation of the proposed sensitive lands recommendation reveals
three major conclusions:
1. About 31,700 acres of floodplain and steep slope land are now planned for urban levels of development. Preservation of these lands would result in some changes to local land use patterns.
2. Preservation of these sensitive lands would have a moderate impact on the distri-
bution of regional growth and no impact on forecast total growth.
3. The region's western third contains adequate land, which is responsive to market
forces, to accommodate growth beyond 2010.
The following brief description shows how these conclusions were drawn:
A primary question about increased protection of sensitive lands is whether or not enough land exists to accommodate regional growth through 2010, or beyond. Series 7 forecasts
that, on the average, about 7,350 acres of land are expected to develop each year in all
use categories over the next 24 years. Over half of these, 4,343 acres, are development
of low density single family homes on lot sizes of from 1 to 40 acres. The remaining
3,007 acres are urban density commercial, industrial and residential developments. Over
the period 1986-2010, the annual average of 7,350 acres developed would result in a total
of about 176,000 acres used to accommodate the region's population and economic growth; approximately 104,000 acres of low density residential and 72,000 acres of urban uses.
If significant new sensitive lands policies were enacted, about 4,400 acres of floodplains
and 27,300 acres of steep slopes which are currently planned for urban levels of develop- ment would be affected in the region's western third. Consequently, a total of 31,700
acres of sensitive lands would be lost to urban development.
1986 inputs to Series 7 categorized 99,800 acres of land available for urban level devel- opment. By 2010, 27,600 acres of this land remained vacant and available leading to the conclusion that even if all the planned sensitive lands shown above were excluded from development, that the total availability of land would be very near what is needed for the next 25 years. In fact, the supply and use designation of non-sensitive land which market forces would identify for urban uses would be far greater than the approximately 100,000 acres identified in 1986. This additional land would come from several categories:
5
- General Plans currently contain about 329,200 acres of low density single family land. About 145,000 of these acres are not steep slope or floodplain land and intensification of use of some of this land as a result of plan updates is a normal result of urban growth.
- Rural land, including that currently used for agriculture, urban reserve, or land which is simply vacant, currently accounts for 564,100 acres and is subject to
the same planning pressures as low density single family land.
- Residential land generally develops at a density of between 50% and 75% of what is shown on local General Plans. Regionwide, these 71,400 acres could
accommodate about one-third more development and not exceed current planned densities.
There is currently little consistency to local sensitive lands development policies (although the recent County and City of San Diego's proposed actions are similar), and final recommendation of a set of specific policies would be premature. The public, however, perceives a real and immediate need to address development and protection of
these lands. Consequently, staff has proposed a cooperative process to prepare final
consistent policies, and recommends a commitment by the Board to enhance sensitive
land protection and to speedy development of consistent plan recommendations for consideration by the SANDAG Board and the local jurisdictions.
A
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ATTACHMENT A
o Growth Rate Components of the City and County of San Diego Ballot Proposals
On August 9, 1988, the San Diego City Council acted to finalize the language of the Growth Management Element of the Progress Guide and General Plan. The proposal will appear for voter approval at the General Election on November 8. The growth rate
component is based directly on the Draft Regional Growth Management Recommenda- tions and states:
The City shall not issue building permits for residential development which would allow the construction of more than 37,950 dwelling units for the five (5)
year period 1989-1994.
This number of units is the same as the City's forecast housing need shown on Table 1 of this Board report. The Growth Management Element also specifies that 3,600 units per
year (18,000 for the five-year period) be newly proposed development. The remaining
3,990 units per year (19,950 over five years) are units which "have received a vesting
tentative map and/or an approved development agreement prior to the effective date of
this Element." The only exemptions to the action are certified low income housing units and residential development in the City's Official Redevelopment Areas.
The County of San Diego acted to place a Sensitive Lands and Growth Control Ordinance
on the same election ballot. The County's residential limitation component is less
specific than that of San Diego and presumes that development of implementation guide-
lines and directives will occur after an affirmative vote is received from the public. The
document states:
Residential Limitations. A holding/carrying capacity limitation shall be es lished for each community and subregional planning area, to ensure that Quality of Life Standards are met over the near and long term based upon following ... :
ab- the the
(2) a plan for phasing development to the ultimate build-out that is
consistent with maintaining Quality of Life Standards and which will
not exceed under any circumstances the San Diego Association of
Governments (SANDAG) population projections within a five year period.
In discussion with the Ordinance's authors, the 1989-94 time period was not used because
the County intends that the policy be permanent and to apply to all future Regional Growth Forecast series -- not just to Series 7. The use of "population projections" rather
than dwelling units is a reference to the total forecasting process, and it is intended that the dwelling unit component of the forecasts be used for implementation if the Ordi-
nance is approved.
At the same meeting, the Supervisors also placed the Regional Planning and Growth Control measure on the ballot for an advisory vote of the public. The measure is in- tended to determine public support for creation of a Regional Planning and Growth Management Review Board. This body would be charged with "development of a regional growth management plan which addresses transportation management, solid waste dis-
posal, water reclamation, sewage disposal, air quality, and determines a fair allocation of
industrial land use for each jurisdiction." It will be discussed as part of R-59 on the
Board of Directors agenda.
ATTACHMENT B
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o Current Local Jurisdiction Sensitive Land Policies
SANDAG has completed a preliminary review of current sensitive lands regulations of
the other seventeen cities in the region to determine what exists in terms of a consistent
regional policy. Planning directors were surveyed in an attempt to quantify plans and
policies relative to sensitive lands. It should be noted that direct comparisons are not
and cannot be made, because so much diversity exists as to how jurisdictions address
various issues. For example, some cities have General Plan policies which provide broad,
general guidance, subject to interpretation. Still others have that, plus specific zoning or
overlay regulations. Several are in the process of updating their General Plans and have
interim guidelines which address sensitive lands, or intend to include such provisions in their updates. Still others may not have specific policies, but handle protection of sensi-
tive lands and other resources through the development process (specific plans, develop- ment agreements, etc.). The survey does not attempt to determine the level of protec- tion or method of implementation; it simply indicates generally how or if the region's
jurisdictions define and include preservation of and/or restriction of development on
steep slopes, floodplains and wetlands as criteria for reviewing development proposals. This analysis will be expanded in the detailed analysis to be prepared as part of the
Regional Open Space Plan. The results of the survey are presented below.
1,
2.
3.
Steep Slopes (25%+)
Of the 15 cities having slopes of 25% or greater within their boundaries, the
majority define (or establish criteria for defining) and restrict development on such
lands. However, the definitions are by no means common, and significant differ- ences are seen in the manner in which slopes are calculated, a factor which greatly
affects how and what slopes are protected. Of this number, most provide various exclusion/variance provisions and/or allow some encroachment for parcels 75% or more in steep slope areas and for roads and utilities.
Floodplains
Of the 17 cities having jurisdiction over floodplain areas, approximately 2/3 defined
floodplains as areas inundated by a 100-year frequency flood. Most cities have
restrictions on type of development in these areas. However, several distinguish between the floodway and floodplain, and allow higher intensity uses, including
mineral extraction, in the floodplain. Most cities restrict or preclude development in
the floodway to very low intensity uses such as agriculture, essential roads, utilities, some recreation, wetland or habitat management plans, etc., but permit mixed use development and often filling in the floodplain or the floodplain fringe.
W etlands/ W e tland Buffer Areas
Of the 16 cities whose borders encompass wetland areas, over half have definitions similar to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetland Inventory Maps, which
include lagoons, marshes, estuaries, mudflats, vernal pools, streams and rivers
associated with riparian habitats. In most of these cases, development is restricted
to such low intensity activities as aquaculture, scientific/ educationhesearch, and
essential public projects.
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o Sensitive Land Components of City and County of San Diego Ballot Proposals
City of San Diego -
On August 9, 1988, the San Diego City Council voted to place an amendment to the
Progress Guide and General Plan, including provisions for protection of sensitive lands (floodplains, wetlands, steep slopes, biologically sensitive lands and prehistoric
and historic resources) on the November ballot. Approval of proposed uses in these
areas would be subject to obtaining a Sensitive Lands Permit and consistency with
the underlying zoning. If approved, the sensitive lands section can be amended by a
3/4 Council vote, and the amendments must not result in less protection of sensitive
lands. A brief description of the main provisions of the measure is presented below.
Floodplains: Defined as lands subject to inundation by 100-year flood frequency. Permitted uses include residential of 1 unit per 10 acres, underlying zoning (i.e.,
infill in urbanized floodplain areas), low intensity recreational, and mineral extrac- tion, with the requirement that none of the above disturb wetland/wetland buffer areas. Also allowed are adopted public/private streets, utility systems and all permitted uses in wetlanddwetland buffer areas.
WetlanddWetland Buffers: Defined by high water table or covered by water, and/or
all wetlands mapped on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife National Wetland Inventory Maps,
and buffers as lands of appropriate size to protect functional value of wetland; uses
in wetlands limited to aquaculture, research/education, habitat restoration projects, essential public projects; in buffers, adds passive recreation, improvements neces- sary to protect wetlands.
Steep Slopes: Defined as lands having a natural gradient of 25% or more, 25 feet vertical for each 100 feet horizontal distance, based on 5-fOOt contour intervals,
with a 25-fOOt minimum elevation. Can also include lands within 300 feet as a
buffer. Maximum allowable encroachment of 20%, when 100% of the lot is in 25%
slope or greater. Allows adopted public and private roads, mineral extraction,
utility systems.
Exemptions: Vested projects, single family homes on individual lots, mineral extrac- tion and public park development. An administrative permit process exists for adopted wetlands management plans, Habitat Conservation Plans, existing agri- culture and fire protection clearing.
Projects may be excluded from the provisions of the Element if the proponent can prove that the project provides extraordinary public benefits, or that the law causes an illegal "taking" of development rights. Exclusions require a 2/3 vote of the
Council and are only heard twice a year.
County of San Diego -
On August 10, 1988, the County Board of Supervisors voted to place a Sensitive Lands and Growth Control Measure on the November ballot. This measure protects five types of sensitive lands (floodplains, wetlands, steep slopes, sensitive animal or plant habitat, and significant prehistoric or historic sites) and calls for adoption of certain control mechanisms, including issuance of a Sensitive Lands Permit, that would determine the amount, type, location and timing of development. The Ordi-
nance can only be amended or repealed by a majority vote of the people. The major components of the measure are briefly summarized belcw.
Floodplains: Defined by 100-year flood as mapped by the County; no permanent structures for human use permitted in floodway; one dwelling per acre permitted in floodplain fringe.
Wetland/Wetland Buffers: Defined by high water table or covered by water, and
buffers as lands of appropriate size to protect functional value of wetland; uses in
wetlands limited to aquaculture, research/education, habitat restoration projects; in
buffers, adds access paths, improvements necessary to protect wetlands and those for health, safety and general welfare.
Steep Slopes: Defined as lands not previously graded for non-agricultural uses with a
natural gradient of 25% or more, to be determined by 5-foot contour intervals, and a minimum rise of 25 feet. Sets residential lot sizes at 4-8 acres in slope areas, with a maximum allowable encroachment of 20%, when 100% of the lot is in 25% slope or greater. Exempts adopted public and private roads, utility systems, clearing for fire protection, approved park trails.
Exemptions: Vested projects, essential public projects, agriculture, Habitat Conser- vation Plans, clearing and grubbing for fire protection, mineral extraction, unconsti- tutional "takings", redevelopment areas, approved Revitalization Action Plan areas,
public community recreation facilities.
.'
I
MAY 19, 1988
TO: CITY MANAGER
FROM: Planning Director
STAFF/PLANNING COMMISSION COMMENTS ON RECOMMENDATIONS 1 AND 2 OF SANDAG DRAFT REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEME" RECOwpiENDATIONS
Recommendation 1 of the SANDAG Report would use the housing unit
forecast as identified in the Series 7 Population Forecasts for
the next five years as policy for a jurisdiction's share of
building permit activity. For Carlsbad, this would equate to
6,438 dwelling units or an average of 1,288 dwelling units
annually. There would be no penalty or sanctions if the share
was not met or exceeded.
Although Carlsbad uses yearly dwelling unit projections in our
Growth Management Program, the objective of our program is to
equate the amount of growth to the need for public facilities.
As a result, the City has adopted a strict Growth Management Program which contains specific facility performance standards which must be maintained at all times in order to allow growth to occur. The recommendations being made by SANDAG do not address the impacts of growth, but only the number of residential units being built by each jurisdiction. In terms of this recommendation's effect on Carlsbad's program, it will have none other than just formally confirming the dwelling unit projections that staff already uses as a planning tool. There are however
numerous cities in the county which do not have specific growth management programs and this could be a first effort in getting their cooperation in Regional Growth Management.
Staff would recommend that the City make a recommendation to the
SANDAG Board of Directors that the next step in this process
might be for communities to agree on specific public facility performance standards which all jurisdictions must adhere to. As a starting point staff would recommend the acceptance of a transportation standard or a circulation standard similar to the one adopted in the City's Growth Management Program.
In terms of the second recommendation by SANDAG, which is for all jurisdictions to enact the Sensitive Lands Initiative, the City of Carlsbad currently has as part of its Growth Management Plan, numerous provisions which protect sensitive lands in the City. Those ordinances and policies adopted by the City Council actually appear to exceed the requirements of the sensitive lands initiative. Staff is recommending that the City Council urge other cities to adopt similar policies to the City of Carlsbad or that of the sensitive lands initiative.
City Manager May 19, 1988 Paae 2
The Planning Commission considered the SANDAG Report at its
meeting of May 18; 1988. While the Commission supported the
report, they wished it emphasized that it does not supercede the
City's growth management approach which is to address the impacts
of growth through the adequacy of public facilities. Dwelling
unit development activity by itself does not provide for
successful growth management and the need to have facility-based
performance standards is essential.
Submitted by:
\
Tlfb-&-&
MICHAEL J. HOLZMIIR
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