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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1990-06-26; City Council; 10695; SANDAG's draft 1991-1996 Regional HousingCIp" OF CARLSBAD - AGENC- BILL 6f SANDAG'S DRAFT 1991 - 1996 REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT IEPT. PLN RECOMMENDED ACTION: ADOPT City Council Resolution No. %-A//, recognizing the 1991- 1996 Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) for use in preparing revisions to the City's housing element; requesting SANDAG to further update the R"S to incorporate results of the 1990 census and modified calculation methodologies; and accepting as interim five-year goals a Itregional share" of 6,273 dwelling units and a "fair share" of 1,125 low income households until specific, and perhaps different, numerical objectives can be developed and adopted as part of a revised housing element. ITEM EXPLANATION Under California State Law, each jurisdiction must update its general plan housing element at least once every five years. San Diego county jurisdictions are on a state schedule requiring new revisions to be completed by July 1991, for the period 1991-1996. State law also requires regional councils of government to prepare a Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) to assist local jurisdictions in preparing the updates of their housing elements. SANDAG has just completed revisions to the existing 1985-1990 R"S and is requesting local jurisdictions to take formal action on the changes. The Regional Housing Needs Statement undertakes two major functions. First, it provides a detailed analysis of existing and projected general housing needs by income group, the needs of special client groups, housing costs, housing and demographic characteristics, and the identification of market indictors. This information is extremely useful to local jurisdictions in preparing the extensive amount of background information required by state law to be included in the housing element. Housing law also requires local housing elements to include goals, auantified objectives, and a five-year schedule of specific actions which the jurisdiction indicates it will undertake to assure that its stated goals and objectives will be attained. A second function of SANDAGIs R"S then is to develop key quantified regional housing objectives for inclusion in housing elements. The R"S includes for each City two key candidate/numerical objectives which SANDAG proposes each City adopt for the period 1991-1996: a) the Itregional share", which is each city's targeted share of the total regional need for all types of housing for each income group. SANDAG suggests, Carlsbadls five-year goal should be 6,273 dwelling units; PAGE 2 OF AGENDA BILL NO. /+ 6 yg b) the lafair share", which is the number of lower income households for which each City should provide housing assistance in order to meet its fair share of the existing and projected regional need. SANDAG suggests Carlsbad's Votal fair share" is an additional 9,000 low income households. SANDAG further recognizes that it is unlikely that jurisdictions will have the resources to meet the needs of the I1total fair share". Instead each jurisdiction is assigned an annual llgood faithg1 target of assisting 2.5 percent of the lltotal fair share". For the five year period 1991-1996 the target goal for Carlsbad is 1,125 households. The Planning Department has critically reviewed both the R"S text and the methodologies usedto calculate the numerical goals. While written comments have been submitted to SANDAG suggesting changes to both the text and especially the methodologies, the SANDAG staff has declined to make any substantive changes to the current R"S draft. However, they have agreed that at some later time a discussion of the methodologies may be desired. In particular, the proposed #Ifair shareg1 goal of providing housing assistance to 1,125 additional households is of concern. Relative to Carlsbadls past production, 321 low income households over the last five years, SANDAGIs proposed objective would represent an extraordinary challenge to the City. Staff believes it would be imprudent to commit to such an objective until an analysis is undertaken to determine l1howl1, and even llifll, such an objective can be achieved. The proper source for this analysis in the housing element. Staff therefore recommends that the City accept the Regional Housing Needs Statement now only for its wealth of background data and as a statement of interim, generalized goals, and defer any commitment to specific numerical housing objectives until the housing element is brought forward for policy consideration. In addition, the Planning Department believes that the City Council should request the SANDAG Board to consider an addition to its 1991 Overall Work Program to provide further revisions to the R"S based upon a) a rigorous re-evaluation of the methodologies used to estimate llregional shareg1 and "fair share" housing goals and b) the incorporation of the results of the U.S. 1990 Census. This program should be undertaken with the full participation of staffs from local San Diego County jurisdictions and appropriate state agencies. FISCAL IMPACT Recognizing SANDAGIs Regional Housing Needs Statement has no direct fiscal impacts. EXHIBITS 2. Report to the City Manager from Principal Planner, 1. City Council Resolution No. %-R // dated June 8, 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 RESOLUTION NO. A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL, CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, RECOGNIZING THE REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT ESTABLISHED BY THE SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS. WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad and the San Diego Association of Governments adopted the existing Regional Housing Needs Statement for the period 1985 to 1990, which recommended the "regional share" and "fair share" of housing needs; and WHEREAS, the existing Regional Housing Needs Statement relied upon the 1980 Census, Series 6 Regional Growth Forecasts, and other information available at that time; and WHEREAS, the effective period ofthe Regional Housing Needs Statement (1985-1990) is about to lapse: and WHEREAS, the State Housing Law, Government Code Section 65588, requires all lllocal governments within the regional jurisdiction of the San Diego Association of Governments*@ to adopt the second comprehensive revisions of their general plan housing elements by July 1, 1991; and WHEREAS, the State Housing Law requires each jurisdiction to identify its share of the region's housing need as part of its housing element and to avoid the concentration of lower income households; and WHEREAS, the San Diego Association of Governments has proposed revisions to the Regional Housing Needs Statement for 1991-1996 which uses updates to the 1980 Census, Series 7 Regional Growth Forecasts, and other information currently available: and WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad staff has reviewed the proposed revision to the Regional Housing Needs Statement and submitted comments to the San Diego Association of Governments 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 tncluding: a) a request to incorporate further revisions once the :esults of the 1990 U.S. Census are made available, and b) a :equest to review and make specified changes to the methodologies ised by SANDAG to estimate candidate Itregional share" and "fair ;hare" housing goals for Carlsbad; and WHEREAS, notwithstanding the validity of City staffls :omments, the adoption by the San Diego Association of Governments md the recognition by local jurisdictions of a revised Regional lousing Needs Statement would provide information, goals, and >bjectives useful to the formulation of both regional housing >lans and local general plan housing elements: NOW, THEREFORE, the City Council of the City of Carlsbad ioes 1. 2. 3. 2. ... ... hereby resolve as follows: The above recitations are true and correct. The City of Carlsbad recognizes the Regional Housing Needs Statement as set forth in the exhibit titled _(draft)- Reaional Housina Needs Statement/San Dieao Reaion, dated February, 1990, on file in the City Clerk's Office, as an information source for use in preparing revisions to the City of Carlsbad's housing element. The City of Carlsbad accepts as interim five-year goals for the period July 1991 through June 1996 a "regional share" of 6,273 dwelling units and a "fair share" of 1,125 low income households, until specific, and perhaps differing, numerical objectives can be developed and adopted as part of a revised general plan housing element. The City of Carlsbad hereby requests the Executive Board of the San Diego Association of Governments to consider an addition to its 1991 Overall Work Program to provide further revisions to the Regional Housing Needs Statement based upon: 1) the results of the 1990 U.S. Census, and 2) a rigorous re-evaluation of the methodologies usedto estimate "regional share" and '*fair sharen1 housing goals, to be undertaken with the full participation of appropriate state and local jurisdictions and their staffs. -2- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 le 19 2c 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 PASSED, APPROVED, AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the :ity Council of the City of Carlsbad, held on the 26th day of June , 1990, by the following vote, to wit: AYES:. Council Members Lewis, Kulchin, Pettine, Mamaux and Larson NOES: None ABSENT: None ABSTAIN: ITTEST: ILETHA L. RAUTENKRANZ, City C1e)rk (SEAL) -3- JUNE 8, 1990 TO: CITY MANAGER FROM: Principal Planner VIA: Planning Director RECOGNIZING SANDAG'S 1991-1996 REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT Backcrround Under California State Law, each jurisdiction must update its general plan housing element at least once every five years. San Diego County jurisdictions are on a state schedule requiring new revisions to be completed by July 1991, for the period 1991-1996. State law also requires regional councils of government to prepare a Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) to assist local jurisdictions in preparing the updates of their housing elements. SANDAG has just completed revisions to the existing 1985-1990 R"S and is requesting local jurisdictions to take formal action on the changes. Discussion The Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) undertakes two major functions. First, it provides a detailed analysis of existing and projected general housing needs by income group, the needs of special client groups, housing costs, housing and demographic characteristics, and the identification of market indictors. This information is extremely useful to local jurisdictions in preparing the extensive amount of background data required by the state to be included in the housing element. Attachment 1 provides a summary profile of the findings of the proposed 1991-1996 R"S for Carlsbad. Housing law also requires local housing elements to include goals, auantified objectives, and a five-year schedule of specific actions which the jurisdiction indicates it will undertake to assure that its stated goals and objectives will be attained. Among other things each City must tlestablish the maximum number of housing units that can be constructed, rehabilitated, and conserved over a five-year time frame It(Govt. Code 658839(b)). The second function of the R"S then is to develop key quantified regional housing objectives and derivative local quantified objectives for inclusion in housing elements. These key objectives are intended to assure the development of local housing programs which will meet the existing and projected housing needs of all households income groups. The R"S includes for each City two key objectives for the period 1991-1996: JUNE 8, 1990 CITY MANAGER PAGE 2 1. I1Reaional Share" The "regional share" is each Cityls targeted share of the total regional need for all types of housing for each income group. It is calculated not only from each City's forecasted growth (as determined by the California Department of Finance and corroborated by SANDAG's Series 7 Forecasts), but also by use of other factors, including employment generation and total (as opposed to residential only) vacant land. Attachment 2 shows the proposed *Iregional share" for each jurisdiction in the county. Carlsbadls assigned five-year goal is 6,273 dwelling units. 2. "Fair Share" The "fair share" identifies the number of lower income households for which each City should provide housing assistance in order to meet its fair share of the existing and projected regional need. The 'Ifair share" calculation for each City includes five factors, including weightings for exceptional or poor performance in meeting past housing assistance goals. SANDAG recognizes that it is unlikely that jurisdictions will have the resources necessary to meet the assistance needs of the lltotal fair share!' allocation. Instead, each jurisdiction is assigned an annual llgood faith effort@@ target of assisting 2.5 percent of the "total fair share". Attachment 3 shows the proposed Votal fair share" allocation and five-year "fair sharev1 goal for each jurisdiction. Carlsbadls "total fair share" is 9,000 households, and our assigned five-year goal is 1,125 households. Attachment 4 provides a comparison of Carlsbad's 1985-1990 Regional Housing Needs Statement goals, the level of City achievement in attaining these goals, and the proposed 1991-1996 R"S goals. For 1985 through 1990 our "regional sharef1 was to supply 9,789 new housing units. We actually built 8,049, missing our goal by 1,740 units or 18 percent. For 1991 through 1996 our Itregional sharevv is to supply 6,273 new housing units. This new, lower figure seems attainable given the current status of our growth management plan. For 1985 through 1990 our "fair share" for providing low-income housing assistance was 567 households. We actually provided for only 321, missing our goal by 246 households or 43 percent. Due in part to our past performance, our 1991-1996 "fair sharetv has been boosted to 1,125 households, nearly a doubling of our previous goal. In order for Carlsbad to meet this goal, the level at which JUNE 8, 1990 CITY MANAGER PAGE 3 we provide new housing assistance would have to be accelerated more than 3 1/2 times the rate at which we have provided assistance in the past. Clearly this would be an extraordinary challenge. Carlsbad is not alone in having had difficulty in meeting the fair share goals of the last Regional Housing Needs Statement. The achievements of many other jurisdictions in San Diego county suggest they also have had difficulties. Attachment 5 is based upon data published by SANDAG giving the achievements of all jurisdictions in the county for the years 1986 and 1987 (data for later years have not yet been published). While 87 percent of the county-wide two-year goal was met, nine individual jurisdictions failed to meet even 50 percent of their respective goals. The two- year achievements should not be taken necessarily to predict how well individual jurisdictions will be shown to have done for the full five-year period 1985-1989, however. Note, for example, that although Carlsbad achieved 99 percent of its two-year goal, Attachment 4 shows that we met only 57 percent of our five-year goal. Nevertheless, the data in Attachment 5 suggest that providing housing for the low-income households is a significant challenge not only for Carlsbad, but for many jurisdictions. The Planning Department has critically reviewed both the text and the methodologies used in the Regional Housing Needs Statement to calculate the numerical goals. Staff has submitted to SANDAG a number of comments on both. In particular, staff has questions about some of the assumptions used in the numerical methodologies, and would like to see SANDAG re-evaluate these methodologies with the assistance of the member agencies. Staff is also concerned that the R"S is unable to include the results of the 1990 U.S. Census. Much of the base data in the document come either directly or indirectly from the 1980 census, information which is clearly badly dated. The document should be updated as soon as the 1990 Census data becomes available. SANDAG staff members have declined to make any substantive changes in the current R"S draft in response to these points. However, they have agreed that at some later time a discussion on the methodologies may be desirable. Recommendations The Planning Department recommends that the City Council adopt a resolution recognizing the 1991-1996 Regional Housing Needs Statement for use in preparing revisions to the City's Housing Element. However, staff has reservations about formally adopting the proposed numerical objectives for Ifregional share" and "fair share". There are many obstacles which will have to be overcome to achieve these ambitious goals. City staff and the Council need to explore the many policy issues associated with the grhow'v of meeting these goals to determine if they are even achievable. The proper forum for this exploration is the development of the housing JUNE 8, 1990 CITY MANAGER PAGE 4 element, a process that is now getting underway. Therefore, staff recommends that the Council resolve to accept SANDAGIs candidate goals as interim goals, until specific, and perhaps differing but attainable numerical objectives can be developed and adopted as part of the revising housing element. Staff also recommends that Council resolve to request the SANDAG Board to consider an addition to its 1991-1992 Overall Work Program to provide further revisions to the R"S, based upon a) a rigorous re-evaluation of the methodologies used to estimate "regional share" and "fair shareg1 housing goals, and b) the incorporation of the results of the U.S. 1990 Census. This program should be undertaken with the full participation of the staffs from local San Diego County jurisdictions and appropriate state agencies. DENNIS A. TURNER Principal Planner arb Attachments: 1. Summary Profile for Carlsbad, 1991-1996 Regional Needs 2. Regional Share by Jurisdiction 3. Fair Share by Jurisdictions 4. Comparison of Previous and Proposed Housing Goals 5. Fair Share Performance 1986 and 1987 Statement ATTACHMENT 1 Profile Table CARLSBAD Total 6,273 Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Moderate Other Lower and Above Low -- Low - - 1,443 1,066 1,317 2,447 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share'' Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % House holds Goals 5.1 6.2 5.2 9,000 1,125 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) OwnedRenter: In 1980, the City of Carlsbad had a total of 13,586 occupied housing units, of which 63.8% were owner occupied and 36.2% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 16,178; and renter - 9,180, Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly: Based on 1980 Census data, 11.5% of Carlsbad's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population; would result in: 7,133 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households: Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Carlsbad had 13,586 total households, of which 1,196 were large households, accounting for 8.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,232 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households: The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Carlsbad had 635 female headed households with one or more children, accounting for 4.7% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 1,192 female-headed households. Handicapped: The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 6,203 handicapped persons. 1 Students: Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military: The major concentrations of military population center around Camp Pendleton and the Miramar Naval Air Station. Minority: Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 13.5% of the City's total population, Asian 2.4% and Black .6%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 1696, Black 1%, and Asian 6%. Farmworkers: The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 7.8% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 2.5% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless: The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City of Carlsbad has estimated its homeless population to include approximately one half dozen transients that can be considered residents. from Regional Housing Needs Statement 2 Y C 4 v) Q, n F a 3f c3 -4 n E =a .,o + rQ cr n c, r. rr ru 0 w 5 m .n k P 0 s U L a m * m P al z" co- - - Attachment 5: Fair Share (low Income) Performance 1986 and 1987 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Dei Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos San tee Sotana Beach Vista Unincorporated Housing Needs Housing Needs Percentage Provided in to Meet Achievement of Five-Year Goal 1986 and 1987 Two-Year Goal Two-Year Goal 1985-19b9 223 375 12 2 1 47 5 528 11 85 19 69 48'7 32 2,887 22 48 34 29 782 226 296 60 20 216 150 226 46 152 66 94 278 132 3,040 90 156 40 112 1.248 99 Yv 128% 20% 10% 6s X 3% 234% 24% 56% 292 r3 h 175% 24% 952 24% 31% 85% 26% 63 % -SI 567 740 150 50 542 368 565 11.1 3?9 163 235 693 330 7,60 1 225 391 98 2so 3,122 REGION TOTAL 5,800 6,648 87% 16,613 Source: Tabte F-3. (draft) Regional Housing Needs Statement. (Catsbad data changed to reflect. corrected counts of housing production during this period! L PROJECT FUTURE P. 0. Box 4650 Carlsbad, CA 92008 June 26, 1990 Dear Mayor Lewis and Councilmembers: RE: SANDAG'S Draft 1991-1996 Regional Housing Needs Statement FUTURE supports staff's recommendations $0 ldefer any commitment to specific numerical housing objec- tives until the housing element is brought forward for policy consideration; and to request that SANDAG further update the RHNS to incorporate results of the 1990 census and modify their calculation method- ologies. Our planning consultant has some experience in this area and has offered to confer with the City in the resolution of these issues with SANDAG. Very truly yours, PROJECT FUTURE Anne Mauch, Secretary DRAFT REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT SAN DIEGO REGION FEBRUARY 1990 SanJDiego ASSOCIATION OF 401 B Street • Suite 800 San Diego, California 921 01 (619)236-5300 Prepared for the San Diego Association of Governments as part of the COMPREHENSIVE REGIONAL PLAN (HOUSING) MEMBER AGENCIES: Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar, El Cajon, Encinitas, Escondido, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside, Poway, San Diego, San Marcos, Santee, Solana Beach, Vista and County of San Diego. ADVISORY/LIAISON MEMBERS: California Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Defense and Tijuana/Baja California Norte. Board of Directors SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS The San Diego Association of Governments (SANOAG) is a public agency formed voluntarily by local governments to assure overall areawide planning and coordination for the San Diego region. Voting members include the Incorporated Cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar, El Cajon, Encinitas, Escondido, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside, Poway, San Diego, San Marcos, Santee, Solana Beach, Vista, and the County of San Diego. Advisory and Liaison members include CALTRANS, U.S. Department of Defense, and Tijuana/Baja California Norte. CHAIR: Hon. LoisEwen VICE-CHAIR: Hon. Jack Doyle SECRETARY-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Kenneth E Sulzer CITY OF CARLSBAD Hon. John Mamaux, Councilmember (A) Hon. Ann Kulchin, Mayor Pro Tern CITY OF CHULA VISTA Hon. Greg Cox, Mayor (A) Hon. Leonard Moore, Councilmember CITY OF CORONADO Hon. Lois Ewen, Mayor Pro Tem (A) Hon. Michel Napolitano, Councilmember CITY OF DEL MAR Hon. John Gillies, Councilmember (A) Hon. Jan McMillan, Deputy Mayor CITY OF EL CAJON Hon. Harriet Stockwell, Councilmember (A) Hon. Joan Shoemaker, Councilmember CITY OF ENCINITAS Hon. Marjorie Gaines, Councilmember (A) Hon. Gail Hano, Deputy Mayor CITY OF ESCONDIDO Hon. Jerry Harmon, Mayor Pro Tem (A) Hon. Ernie Cowan, Councilmember CITY OF IMPERIAL BEACH Hon. John Mahoney, Councilmember (A) Hon. Henry Smith, Mayor CITY OF LA MESA Hon. Ed Senechal, Councilmember (A) Hon. Ernest W. Ewin, Councilmember (A) Hon. Fred Nagel, Mayor CITY OF LEMON GROVE Hon. James V. Dorman, Mayor (A) Hon. Brian Cochran, Councilmember CITY OF NATIONAL CITY Hon. Jess E. Van Deventer, Vice Mayor (A) Hon. Fred Prurtt, Councilmember CITY OF OCEANSIDE Hon. Lawrence M. Bagley, Mayor (A) Hon. Sam Williamson, Councilmember CITY OF POWAY Hon. Carl Kruse, Councilmember (A) Hon. Linda Brannon, Councilmember (B) Hon. Jan Goldsmith, Deputy Mayor CITY OF SAN DIEGO Hon. Judy McCarty, Councilmember (A) Hon. Linda Bernhardt, Councilmember CITY OF SAN MARCOS Hon. Lee Thibadeau, Mayor (A) Hon. Mike Preston, Councilmember CITY OF SANTEE Hon. Jack Doyle, Mayor (A) Hon. Roy A. Woodward, Vice Mayor CITY OF SOLANA BEACH Hon. Margaret Schlesinger, Councilmember (A) Hon. Richard Hendlin, Deputy Mayor CITY OF VISTA Hon. Gloria E. McClellan, Mayor (A) Hon. Bernie Rappaport, Councilmember COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO Hon. Brian Bilbray, Supervisor (A) Hon. Susan Golding, Chairman (A) Hon. John MacDonald, Supervisor STATE DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION (Advisory Member) Robert Best, Director (A) Jesus Garcia, District Eleven Director U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (Liaison Member) Captain David Schlesinger, USN, CEC Commanding Officer Southwest Division Naval Facilities Engineering Command TIJUANA/BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE (Advisory Member) Hon. Carlos Montejo Favela Presidente Municipal de Tijuana Revised January 11,1990 11 ABSTRACT TITLE: AUTHOR: SUBJECT: DATE: LOCAL PLANNING AGENCY: SOURCE OF COPIES: NUMBER OF PAGES: ABSTRACT: Regional Housing Needs Statement (Draft) San Diego Association of Governments Housing needs for San Diego Region including the identification of needs mandated by the state housing law February 1990 San Diego Association of Governments San Diego Association of Governments 401 B Street, Suite 800 San Diego, California 92101 224 The Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) contains a description of housing needs in the San Diego Region. The RHNS summarizes the market conditions of supply and demand based on the most current available information. The outline of the RHNS parallels the re- quirements for the contents of housing elements. Each jurisdiction must update their elements every five years; thus the RHNS provides important data & data sources to assist local governments. The RHNS identifies two important inputs for use in the elements: (1) re- gional share (number of housing units that should be constructed in the next five years to meet the housing needs of all economic segments) and (2) fair share (number of lower income households requiring assistance, existing & pro- jected). Most information is provided for the region and individual jurisdictions. in ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following staff of the San Diego Association of Governments participated in preparation of this report: Kenneth E. Sulzer, Executive Director Stuart Shaffer, Deputy Executive Director Rick Alexander, Director of Land Use and Public Facilities Michael McLaughlin, Senior Regional Planner (Project Manager) Sylvia Alvarez, Project Manager Assistant TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 A. REQUIREMENTS 3 B. REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT 4 1. Regional Share 4 2. Fair Share 4 C. DATA SOURCES 4 1. Existing Needs , 4 2. Projected Needs 5 3. Planning Factors in Allocations 5 D. SCHEDULE 5 CHAPTER II NEEDS ASSESSMENT 7 A. PROFILE 9 B. MARKET ANALYSIS 11 1. Demand 11 a. Existing Population 11 b. Race/Ethnicity 11 c. Special Needs 14 (1) Minority 14 (2) Farmworkers 17 (3) Single Parents 19 (4) Elderly 21 (5) Handicapped 25 (6) Students 27 (7) Military 30 (8) Homeless 32 d. Households 35 (1) Existing 35 (2) Projected 35 e. Household Size 39 f. Age 41 g. Income 44 h. Employment 48 vn TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) i. Commuting Patterns 51 2. Supply 53 a. Existing Housing 53 b. Projected Housing , 57 c. Manufactured Homes 59 d. Housing Costs 62 (1) Owner 62 (2) Renter 65 e. Tenure 67 f. Condition 68 g. Age 70 3. Supply/Demand Indicators 72 a. Overcrowding 72 b. Affordability (Overpayers) 73 (1) Owner 74 (2) Renter 77 (3) Cost of Living 78 c. Vacancy Rates 79 4. Constraints 81 a. Governmental 81 (1) Growth Management 81 (2) Building Codes 81 (3) Processing Fees 81 (4) Article 34 88 b. Non-Governmental 89 (1) Land 89 (2) Construction 89 (3) Financing 89 c. Environmental Concerns 91 d. Availability of Suitable Sites 93 CHAPTER III REGIONAL NEEDS 97 A. INTRODUCTION 99 B. REGIONAL SHARE 99 C. FAIR SHARE 102 1. Formula Factors 103 2. Method of Fair Share Determination 105 Vlll TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) APPENDICES 115 A. Profile Tables 117 B. HCD Data & Methodology 157 C. Opinion of State Attorney General 167 D. State Housing Element Law 181 E. Housing Element Worksheet 197 F. Performance Report Tables 203 G. Facility Impact Fees 213 H. Homeless Funding Sources 217 IX LIST OF TABLES Table A Regional Share By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1/89 - 7/96 xviii Table B Fair Share By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1991 - 1996 xix Table 1 Population By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 12 Table 2 Immigrants Admitted By Country of Birth San Diego Region Annual Average From 1985 - 1987 13 Table 3 Race of Householder By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 15 Table 4 Ethnicity By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 16 Table 5 Employment By Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Mining by Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 18 Table 6 Single Parent With Children By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 20 Table 7 Residence Characteristics of Elderly Households San Diego Region 1980 22 Table 8 Elderly Householder By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 23 Table 9 Elderly Population Projections San Diego Region 1990, 2000 and 2020 24 Table 10 Elderly Estimated Income San Diego Region 1980 24 Table 11 Work Disability San Diego Region 1988 25 Table 12 Transportation Disability San Diego Region 1988 26 Table 13 Elderly and Disabled Persons San Diego Region 1980 - 2010 26 Table 14 Student Population By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 28 LIST OF TABLES (Contd) Table 15 Student Population By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 29 Table 16 Military Family Housing San Diego Region (January 1988) 30 Table 17 Military Family Housing Survey Results San Diego Region 1988 31 Table 18 Existing Households By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 37 Table 19 Projected Households By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1995 38 Table 20 Household Size By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 40 Table 21 Age and Sex Distribution By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 42 Table 22 Income Limits By Category San Diego Region 1989 45 Table 23 Household Income By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 46 Table 24 Per Capita Income By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1985 47 Table 25 Total Employment By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 and 1988 49 Table 26 Employment By Industry by Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 50 Table 27 Mean Trip Length By Trip Type San Diego Region 1987 52 Table 28 Housing Units By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 and 1989 53 Table 29 Housing Units Completed By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 54 Table 30 Population By Housing Type By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 56 XI LIST OF TABLES (Contd) Table 31 Table 32 Table 33 Table 34 Table 35 Table 36 Table 37 Table 38 Table 39 Table 40 Table 41 Table 42 Table 43 Table 44 Table 45 Table 46 Table 47 Projected Occupied Housing Units By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 - 2000 58 Manufactured Housing Parks San Diego Region 1989 59 , 60 Mobile Home Parks By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1986 Existing/Projected Supply of Mobile Homes By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 61 Cost of Resale Homes San Diego Region July 1989 62 Median and Average Housing Prices San Diego Region 1980 - 1989 63 Average Home Price Selected Metropolitan Areas 1988 64 Average Rents San Diego Region 1989 66 Tenure By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 67 Units Needing Rehabilitation (Tenure and Occupancy Status By Plumbing Facilities) By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 69 Year Housing Built By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 71 Overcrowded Housing Units By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 72 Housing Costs as Percent of Income By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 73 Housing Market Affordability Selected Metropolitan Areas 1988 75 Housing Affordability San Diego Region 1989 76 Rent Affordability Metropolitan Areas 1989 77 Cost of Living Index Selected Major Urban Areas Third Quarter 1988 78 xii LIST OF TABLES (Contd) Table 48 Table 49 Table 50 Table 51 Table 52 Table 53 Table 54 Table 55 Table 56 Table 57 Table 58 Table 59 Table 60 Table 61 Table 62 Table 63 Vacancies By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1985 & 1989 80 Growth Management Activities By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 - 1989 82 Regional Development Fees By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 86 Mortgage Interest Rates San Diego Region June 1989 90 Land Constrained From Private Development By MSA San Diego Region 1988 91 Unusable Acres By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1986 92 Land Use Acres By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1986 94 Gross and Developable Acres (Cordon Area) San Diego Region 1986 96 Regional Share By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 - 1996 100 Vacant Land/Employment Change By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1986 - 1995 101 Fair Share By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1991 - 1996 104 "Fair Share" Existing Factors By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 107 "Fair Share" Growth Factors By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 108 Lower Income Balance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 109 Occupied Housing By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 110 Employment By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 and 1995 Ill xiii LIST OF TABLES (Contd) Table 64 Population By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 112 Table 65 Housing Income Distribution By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1988 113 Table A-l Profile Table CARLSBAD 119 Table A-2 Profile Table CHULA VISTA 121 Table A-3 Profile Table CORONADO 123 Table A-4 Profile Table DEL MAR 125 Table A-5 Profile Table EL CAJON 127 Table A-6 Profile Table ENCINITAS 129 Table A-7 Profile Table ESCONDIDO 131 Table A-8 Profile Table IMPERIAL BEACH 133 Table A-9 Profile Table LA MESA 135 Table A-10 Profile Table LEMON GROVE 137 Table A-ll Profile Table NATIONAL CITY 139 Table A-12 Profile Table OCEANSIDE 141 Table A-13 Profile Table POWAY 143 Table A-14 Profile Table SAN DIGEO CITY 145 Table A-15 Profile Table SAN MARCOS 147 Table A-16 Profile Table SANTEE 149 Table A-17 Profile Table SOLANA BEACH 151 Table A-18 Profile Table VISTA 153 Table A-19 Profile Table UNINCORPORATED 155 XIV LIST OF TABLES (Contd) Table F-l Summary Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 206 Table F-2 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 207 Table F-3 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region, 1986 & 1987 208 Table F-4 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction (Household Type: Elderly/Family) San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 209 Table F-5 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction Assisted By Local Programs San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 210 Table F-6 Housing Needs Performance Guaranteed San Diego Region 1980 Through 1986 & 1987 211 Table F-7 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction Section 8. Leases (Urban County) San Diego Region 1988 212 Table G-l Facility Impact Fees By Community City of San Diego 1988 215 Table H-l Funding Sources San Diego Region 1989 219 Table H-2 Homeless Assistance Programs Sponsored or Co-Sponsored By the City of San Diego 1989 220 xv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Where the Homeless Are Found/Who the Homeless Are San Diego Region 1988 34 Figure 2 Age/Sex Pyramid (In 1,000's) San Diego Region 1985 - 2010 43 LIST OF MAPS Map 1 San Diego Region 1989 10 Map 2 Major Statistical Areas San Diego Region 1989 95 xvi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Housing Element is a required component of the General Plan. Jurisdictions must revise their elements to ensure their compliance with the requirements of state law. The San Diego Association of Governments has prepared the Regional Housing Needs Statement (RHNS) to assist the cities and county in the San Diego Region as they prepare their revised housing elements. In response to the statutory requirements identified in the Government Code, SANDAG began preparation of the Regional Housing Need Statement (RHNS) in early March 1989. The RHNS serves two purposes: (1) identifies the regional housing needs and; (2) serves as a reference document for the local agencies. The RHNS consists of three sections and an appendice. The RHNS is structured to parallel the contents of a local housing element to the extent possible. Much of the information can be used directly in the elements and provides a starting point for analysis at the local level. • The first section summarizes the relationship of the RHNS to the housing element, identifies data sources and presents a schedule culminating with the approval of local housing elements. • The second section presents a detailed analysis of existing and projected housing needs, special needs, housing costs, and the identification of market indicators that serves as "warnings" to communities. • The third section identifes the regional housing needs. These needs consist of two important sets of numbers. •Regional Share: The projected number of housing units that would meet a jurisdiction's share of housing for all income groups (See Table A); and •Fair Share: The existing and projected number of lower income households that need assistance (See Table B). Finally, the Appendice includes: (1) Profile Tables of Jurisdictions that summarize regional share, fair share, and other important conditions and needs; (2) HCD Data & Methodolgy ; (3) Opinion of State Attorney General; (4) State Housing Element Law; (5) Housing Element Worksheet; (6) Performance Report Tables; (7) Facility Impact Fees; and (8) Homeless Funding Sources. xvn Table A Regional Share By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1/89 - 7/96 Allocation Factor 5.8 3.3 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.3 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.7 1.0 6.9 2.3 40.5 3.4 1.8 0.4 3.6 19.1 (1) Total Regional Share (1/89 to 7/96) 9,409 5,354 973 487 3,082 2,109 10,058 324 2,109 1,136 1,622 11,194 3,731 65,703 5,516 2,920 649 5,840 30,986 (162,229) (2) 5-Year Regional Share Income Distribution (Growth Only) Very Low (7/91 to 7/96) 23% 6,273 3,569 649 325 2,055 1,406 6,705 216 1,406 757 1,081 7,463 2,487 43,802 3,677 1,947 433 3,893 20,657 (108,801) (3) 1,443 821 149 75 473 323 1,542 50 323 174 249 1,716 572 10,074 846 448 100 895 4.751 (25,024) (4) Low 17% 1,066 607 110 55 349 239 1,140 37 239 129 184 1,269 423 7,446 625 331 74 662 3.512 (18,497) (5) Moderate 21% 1,317 749 136 68 432 295 1,408 45 295 159 227 1,567 522 9,198 772 409 91 818 4,338 (22,846) (6) All Other 39% 2,447 1,392 254 127 801 549 2,615 84 549 295 421 2,911 970 17,084 1,434 759 168 1,518 8.056 (42,434) (7) Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Column 1: From Table 57 (Column 5) Column 2: Column 1 Percent x Control Total Housing Needs 162,229 (See Text: Regional Share) Column 3: (Column 2) x (5 Years-: 7.5 Years) Columns 4/5/6/7: Column 3 Needs x .23 (Col. 4), .17 (Col. 5), .21 (Col. 6), and Balance (Col. 7) Source: SANDAG Regional Housing Needs Statement Tables and Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 11 c*ii j gj i j ii 11 ii ii ii ii I 1 • 1 I I f } { I I I llli»ltiflitii»III Fair Share By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1991 - 1996 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Existing "Fair Share" (Percent) 5.1 4.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 2.6 43.0 2.4 3.0 0.9 2.1 18.2 (1) Existing "Fair Share" (Households) 8,227 7,905 1,936 484 3,549 4,033 6,291 323 3,388 1,291 323 7,098 4,194 69,368 3,872 4,840 1,452 3,388 29,360 (161,320) (2) Growth "Fair Share" (Percent) 6.2 4.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.2 3.8 0.1 1.8 0.8 -0.3 5.1 2.6 41.4 2.8 3.2 0.8 2.2 19.8 (3) Growth "Fair Share" (Households) 773 561 137 37 212 274 474 12 224 100 (-37) 636 324 5,161 349 399 100 274 2,468 (12,467) (4) Total "Fair Share" (Percent) 5.2 4.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 2.6 42.9 2.4 3.0 0.9 2.1 18.3 (5) Total "Fair Share" (Households) 9,000 8,466 2,073 521 3,761 4,307 6,765 335 3,612 1,391 298 7,734 4,518 74,529 4,221 5,239 1,552 3,662 31,828 (173,787) (6) Five-Year Goals 1,125 1,058 259 65 470 538 846 42 452 174 37 967 565 9,316 528 655 194 458 3,979 (21,728) (7) Column 1: From Table 59, Column 6 Column 2: Column 1 x Control Total: 161,320 (From Existing Need For All Housing Assistance Plans in San Diego Region) Column 3: From Table 60 Column 4: Column 3 x Control Total: 12,467 (Existing Need (161,320)-: Existing Occupied 876,717 = (.184) x Household Growth 1989 to 1995 (81,306) x 5 Years-! 6 Years for 5 Year Total = 67,755). Column 5: Column 2 + Column 4-1 Regional Total: 173,787 (161,320 + 12,467) Column 6: Column 2 + Column 4 Column 7: Column 6 x 2.5% Per Year (Good Faith Effort) Source: SANDAG Housing Needs Statement Tables Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION A. REQUIREMENTS Each city in the State of California must have an approved general plan to guide its development. Housing has been one of the state's required elements of the general plan since 1967. The housing element is an important planning guide to local jurisdictions: it identifies the housing needs of the city and recommends ways to meet these needs while balancing community objectives and resources. The preparation of the housing element is guided by state law, Chapter 10.6 (and 10.7 for coastal communities) of the Government Code. The law governing the contents of housing elements is among the most detailed of all elements of the general plan. According to Section 65583 of the Government Code, "The housing element shall consist of an identification and analysis of existing and projected housing needs and a statement of goals, policies, quantified objectives, and scheduled programs for the preservation, improvement, and development of housing and shall make adequate provision for the existing and projected needs of all economic segments of the community." The assessment of housing needs must include seven areas of analysis: existing and projected housing needs for all income levels (including the city's share of regional housing), demographic and housing characteristics, identification of sites for residential development, governmental and non-governmental constraints, special housing needs, and energy conservation. The second major component of a housing element that the law requires is "a statement of the community's goals, quantified objectives, and policies relative to the maintenance, improvement and development of housing" (Sec. 65583(b)). The law recognizes that the needs will likely exceed the resources and city's ability to meet the needs. The city must, however, "establish the maximum number of housing units that can be constructed, rehabilitated, and conserved over a five year time frame" (Sec. 65883(b)). The final component that must be included in a housing element is "a program which sets forth a five year schedule of actions ... to imple- ment the policies and achieve the goals and objectives of the housing element" (Sec. 65583(c)). This program must do several things: identify potential housing sites "for all income levels, including rental housing, factory-built housing, mobile homes, emergency and transitional housing"; assist the housing needs of low and moderate income people; address governmental constraints that impact housing; conserve and improve existing affordable housing; and promote equal opportunities for housing. lit B. REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT This state law also requires SANDAG to prepare a Regional Housing Need Statement (RHNS) for agencies within SANDAG's regional boundaries. The statutory requirements described in Section 65584 of the government code require that the existing and projected housing needs be quantified by household income group for all jurisdictions within the region. The RHNS contains a thorough analysis of the region's housing needs. Two important categories of need are contained in the RHNS: (1) Regional Share and (2) Fair Share. Each jurisdiction must include its share of the regional housing needs for all income level in its housing elements (regional share). The distribution of housing needs has to avoid further concentration in those jurisdictions with relatively high proportions of lower income households (fair share). The purpose of this RHNS is to not only identify the regional housing needs but also provide a reference document for the local agencies as they prepare their housing elements. Jurisdictions should incorporate the regional needs in their housing elements in order to develop local housing programs which will meet the existing and projected housing needs of all household income groups. 1. Regional Share The regional share identifies the need for new housing units for each jurisdiction and distributes the projected housing need to all income groups: very low (income not exceeding 50% of the region's median income), low (income between 50 and 80%), moderate (80 to 120%), and above moderate (more than 120%). 2. Fair Share "Fair share" identifies the number of lower income households that each jurisdiction should assist in order to meet its fair share of the existing and projected housing needs of lower income households that need assistance. Fair share requirements are identified by the regional housing allocation formula which was first adopted by SANDAG in 1979 and updated in 1984. C. DATA SOURCES The Regional Housing Needs Statement is a comprehensive assessment of the region's housing needs that identifies the supply and demand for housing in the San Diego region for households of all income groups. The Regional Housing Needs Statement summarizes the indicators of housing needs for two categories. 1. Existing Needs The existing data base uses a number of sources of information. The 1980 Census is the most detailed regionwide information for housing and population. However, since the 1980 census information has become outdated, the RHNS uses a variety ofm more current data sources from Series 7 (1989), SourcePoint reports and information base, Department of Finance Estimates, Chamber of Commerce reports and materials, Building Industry » Association reports and materials, Board of Realtors information, Park-Weaver realty reports, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, ** Housing Assistance Plans for entitlement entities in the region, m service provider data and reports, State Department of Housing and Community Development data and reports, and other special •MI studies. * 2. Projected Needs ** The primary source of data for the projected housing needs for «•> the San Diego Region comes from the SANDAG regional growth forecasts. It is important to note the forecasts for the entire *" region are used in the analysis of the region's need. However, ^ allocation of that need to the jurisdictions is not determined solely by Series 7 allocation of occupied housing units for each m jurisdiction. If they were, the process would violate the state law and a recent Attorney General's opinion (see appendice). Ml SANDAG has been providing both short and long range forecasts ** of regional growth (population, housing, employment, and land m use) since 1971. SANDAG began the production of the Series 7 Forecasts in the June of 1986. The forecasts are a two step «*» process: (1) production of total regional population forecasts by year from the base year (in Series 7, 1986) to the "horizon year" **" (in Series 7, 2010), and (2) determination of the spatial distribution of the future population based on local plans and policies. The forecasts are used by the region's cities, the •« County, other public agencies (such as the County Water Authority, the California Department of Transportation, and the San Diego Unified School district), and private companies (such as real estate and marketing firms and financial institutions). *,* 3. Planning Factors in Allocations *" The model that SANDAG employs in producing the forecasts takes into account household growth and trends (market demand ** for housing), employment growth and trends (employment «H opportunities), land use trends (availability of sites), input from local agencies regarding existing and projected improvements «•* (the availability of public facilities), transportation networks and ^ transit facilities (commuting pattern), and types of existing and projected housing structures and household types (type and tenure ^ of housing need). Thus, the model addresses the factors identified in the State requirements.•v D. SCHEDULE** w The 1989 preparation of the RHNS began in early March of 1989 with the gathering of data and the determination of existing and projected m need for the various jurisdictions. SANDAG approved the RHNS in the winter of 1990. The RHNS becomes one of several inputs that must be in place as member agencies prepare their housing elements for submission to the state. Pursuant to Section 65588 of Government Code, local governments within the regional jurisdiction of SANDAG must have their revised housing elements approved no later than July 1, 1991. In order to meet this schedule, allowances must be made for drafting the element, local review, state review, and local approval. Normally, these steps should take about 12 months. Thus, local jurisdictions should initiate the revision of their elements no later than spring or early summer of 1990. Chapter 2 NEEDS ASSESSMENT A. PROFILE The San Diego Region has become a nationally recognized metropolitan area due to its natural amenities, strong economic base and growth. These factors shape the housing market and determine the type and extent of housing needs for the region. This section will discuss the San Diego market from the perspective of supply and demand. The San Diego Region is 4,261 square miles in size, approximately the same size as the State of Connecticut. The San Diego Region is located in the southwestern corner of the continental United States and adjacent to the Mexican border. On the north, the region is bordered by Orange and Riverside Counties, on the east by the agricultural communities of Imperial County, on the west the region extends seventy miles along the Pacific Shoreline and eighty miles over the mountains to encompass the Anza-Borrego Desert State Park. The area's unique geographical characteristics have influenced the physical, social and economic development of the San Diego Region. The attractive setting and climate of the region, along with the proximity to the Mexican border, are factors to be considered in the evaluation of housing needs. The majority of the region's population is concentrated in the western third of the San Diego Region. The concentration of residents in the coastal portion of the region, along with the demand for housing associated with growth, have direct impact upon the housing market. Several other influences also shape the region's housing market. The presence of two large military installations (Marine Base Camp Pendleton and the San Diego Naval Base) affect the demand for housing. The geographic constraints in East County force demand to the western third of the County. The region developed slowly from its origin as the first permanent settlement on the west coast. The growth was accelerated as a result of the establishment of the military bases. After WW II, San Diego established itself as a metropolitan area. MAPI SAN DIEGO REGION REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT 1989 P|3 INCORPORATED kj AREAS D UNINCORPORATED ,mp.ri.( B..ch AREAS 1" = 8 Miles SOURCE: SANDAG: Land-Use Patterns in the San Diego Region 10 B. MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Demand a. Existing Population The population in the San Diego Region was 1,861,846 in 1980. Based upon the Department of Finance estimates (1989), San Diego's population has increased to 2,418,181. The region's population has grown by 556,355 individuals from 1980-1989, an increase of 30%. Cities including Carlsbad (75%), Chula Vista (53%), Escondido (54%), Oceanside (53%), San Marcos (94%), and Vista (72%) have had population increases of more than 50%. The San Diego Region consists of eighteen incorporated cities in addition to several communities in the unincorporated portions of the county. Based upon 1989 population figures, 44.9% of the region's total population, (1,086,592), lives in the City of San Diego. The remaining incorporated cities approximately 38.9% of the region's residents, with a population of 939,901. The remaining 16.2% of 391,688 residents live in the unincorporated area of the region. The population estimates for 1995 reflect an increase over 1989 figures for most areas. Between 1989 and 2010, the population in most cities will increase from fifteen percent to forty-two percent. b. Race/Ethnicity The San Diego area is comprised of many different ethnic groups. The most predominant groups include Hispanics, which have increased from 15% of the total population in 1980 to 17% in 1988; Blacks which remained at 5% from 1980 to 1988; and Asians which increased from 6% in 1980 to 9% in 1988. The rise in the number of immigrants from Southeast Asian countries have affected housing availability in the San Diego Region. In 1987, the majority of immigrants coming to the region were born in either Mexico or the Phillipines. Race/ethnicity of the population is important to an analysis of housing needs and conditions for several reasons. The cultural influences of races are often reflective of preferences for housing type, location of housing, associated services, and household composition. For example, the concept of "extended family" can have implications on the definitions of overcrowding and housing conditions. The racial and ethnic composition of a community's population should be carefully examined at the neighborhood level. 11 Table 1 Population By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 m III Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Totals 1989 62,030 128,026 24,595 5,131 86,403 53,120 99,007 25,970 53,004 22,749 56,475 117,597 43,121 1,086,592 33,835 52,402 14,694 61,742 391,688 2,418,181 (1) 1995 77,310 132,304 25,475 5,223 85,353 55,890 105,136 26,241 53,798 23,661 55,409 130,664 44,591 1,138,675 40,725 57,185 15,055 67,728 444,711 2,585,134 (2) Percent Increase 24.6 3.3 3.6 1.8 -1.2 5.2 6.2 1.0 1.5 4.0 -1.9 11.1 3.4 4.8 20.4 9.1 2.5 9.7 13.5 6.9 (3) Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 1986-2010, and January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates "I Ml PI Ml 12 • I • i I I f » • I i » f I f 1 f »rabHJ Illiflflfliflllfll Immigrants Admitted by Country of Birth Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region Annual Average From 1985 to 1987 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Country Mexico Philipines Vietnam Iran Kampuchea (Cambodia) Laos Canada United Kingdom Korea China Mainland Taiwan India Poland Thailand Germany, Fed. Rep. Japan Cuba Lebanon Hong Kong Columbia El Salvador Peru Israel Romania Guatemala Pakistan Jamaica Dominican Republic Honduras Ecuador Portugal Guyana USSR Haiti Other Countries 1985 2,245 1,873 772 355 333 226 195 219 188 144 109 90 78* 65* 23* * 31 26* * * * * 12 10* * * 1 12 0 1,366 1986 3,080 2,086 931 370 370 284 203 183 195 152 94 90 94 138 67 102 57 47 35 28 41 29 32 34 33 31 7 9 12 9 9 7* 7 1,029 1987 4,156 3,543 732 349 326 324 301 210 211 202 125 122 100 133 113 120 33 63 70 37 27 47 30 27 25 22 17 10 12 15 13 5* 4 1,182 Annual Percent Change 1985 - 1986 1986 - 1987 37.2% 11.4% 20.6% 4.2% 11.1% 25.7% 4.1% -16,4% 3.7% 5.6% -13.8% 0.0% 20.5%* 3.1%* 147.8%* * -9.7% 57.7%* * * * * -41.7% -10.0%* ** 600.0%* * -24.7% 34.9% 69.8% -21.4% -5.7% -11.9% 14.1% 48.3% 14.8% 8.2% 32.9% 33.0% 35.6% 6.4% -3.6% 68.7% 17.6% -42.1% 34.0% 100.0% 32.1% -34.1% 62.1% -6.3% -20.6% -24.2% -29.0% 142.9% 11.1% 0.0% 66.7% 44.4% -28.6%* -42.9% 14.9% TOTAL 8,373 9,895 12,706 Fiscal Year *Not reported separately, included in other countries. Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. 18.2%28.4% c. Special Needs The following groups have a significant impact upon the demand for housing. The demand relationship is important because these groups often "compete" for the same type of housing. The lack of affordable housing for each of these groups is compounded by the relatively lower incomes associated with the special needs. The importance of identifying special housing needs is necessary in order to fully assess regional housing needs and to meet housing element requirements. Many of these groups overlap; for example, many migrant workers are homeless as well. These needs suggest that a variety of programs, actions, and resources should be implemented within the San Diego Region. (1) Minority The region's population is comprised of several races and groups of Spanish origin. The 1980 Census and 1988 updates (household) revealed the population to be predominantly white. However, minorities comprise a significant protion of the San Diego Region's population: Blacks (5.4%), Asian (8.9%) and Hispanic (17.2%). The levels of minority concentration vary throughout the region. Approximately 30 percent or more of the Hispanic population reside in the south suburban, central, and county areas. These areas include the cities of Chula Vista and Imperial Beach (south suburban), National City, parts of central and southeast San Diego (central), and unincorporated areas of the county. In addition to the Hispanic population, these same areas include a significant percentage of Blacks and Asians. The housing market has been significantly influenced by other minority related populations. These additional factors are difficult to assess due to the lack of reliable data and information. The undocumented/illegal alien population has special housing needs and impacts the availability of lower income housing. Many of these individuals are employed as farmworkers and seek permanent or temporary residence. The Census Bureau has estimated that approximately 2.5 to 3.5 million illegal aliens were living in the U.S. at the time of the 1980 census. It is estimated that one-half of all illegal aliens live in California. 14 f I f i f 1 I I f 1 I | I I if I I I i 1 f t I i • » I I I I • I I I 1 I I I Table 3 Race of Householder by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas** Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway** San Diego San Marcos Santee** Solana Beach** Vista Unincorporated Totals Percent White 12,697 26,314 6,559 2,169 26,953 4,034 23,294 6,626 20,309 6,447 8,828 24,232 9,506 264,041 5,882 14,842 4,748 12,266 98,736 578,483 Total 2.2 4.5 1.1 0.4 4.7 0.7 4.0 1.1 3.5 1.1 1.5 4.2 1.6 45.6 1.0 2.6 0.8 2.1 17.1 Black 95 625 66 8 271 15 96 230 387 299 1,337 1,951 110 25,161 28 91 14 147 1,700 32,631 American Indian, Percent Eskimo, Total 0.3 1.9 0.2 (0.02) 0.8 (0.05) 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 4.1 6.0 0.3 77.1 0.1 0.3 0.04 0.5 5.2 and Aleut 59 180 27 12 217 15 222 75 113 48 98 215 64 1,678 33 111 12 100 1.330 4,609 Percent Total 1.3 3.9 0.6 0.3 4.7 0.3 4.8 1.6 2.5 1.0 2.1 4.7 1.4 36.4 0.7 2.4 0.3 2.2 28.9 Asian and Pacific Islander 240 1,200 84 38 306 92 319 343 274 157 1,524 831 202 13,312 68 141 71 266 1.659 21,127 Spanish Origin* Percent Total 1.1 5.7 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.7 7.2 3.9 1.0 63.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 7.9 Other 495 2,079 87 26 717 133 1,115 493 480 325 2,503 1,793 167 16,868 231 384 221 911 4,216 33,244 Percent Total 1.5 6.3 0.3 0.1 2.2 0.4 3.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 7.5 5.4 0.5 50.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 2.7 12.7 White 678 3,100 174 37 1,086 188 1,267 689 617 454 2,153 1,524 224 17,941 278 461 180 685 5.347 37,083 Percent Total 1.8 8.4 0.5 0.1 2.9 0.5 3.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 5.8 4.1 0.6 48.4 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.8 14.4 Black 8 21 2 - 4 - 2 6 3 3 34 50 3 417 - 2 3 2 43 603 Percen Total 1.3 3.5 0.3 - 0.7 - 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 5.6 8.3 0.5 69.2 - 0.3 0.5 0.3 7.1 * Spanish origin is an ethnic, rather than a racial category. Persons of Spanish origin are counted in the Spanish Origin category, regardless of race. **These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: Compiled from 1980 Census Summary Report Table 4 Jurisdiction Hispanic Carlsbad 9,137 Chula Vista 36,620 Coronado 1,412 Del Mar 215 El Cajon 8,192 Encinitas 7,273 Escondido 17,286 Imperial Beach 5,944 La Mesa 3,987 Lemon Grove 3,688 National City 23,426 Oceanside 22,786 Poway 2,515 San Diego 183,179 San Marcos 4,351 Santee 4,366 Solatia Beach 2,083 Vista 12,197 Unincorporated Area 51,820 Regional Totals 400,477 Ethnicity by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Ethnicity Percent 16 29 6 4 10 14 19 23 8 16 42 21 6 17 17 8 14 22 14 White 45,954 73,054 19,768 4,717 71,890 42,181 70,526 16,567 45,409 16,541 20,313 66,295 35,883 660,360 20,576 44,711 11,902 39,202 289,061 Percent 78 59 84 92 85 81 76 65 87 73 37 61 87 62 78 86 82 70 77 Percent Asian/Other Percent Total 1 2 5 0 1 0 0 3 2 5 7 8 1 9 0 1 0 1 3 17 1,594,910 68 125,733 3,384 11,412 1,319 168 3,552 2,182 5,005 2,294 1,905 1,248 7,604 10,047 2,385 123,350 1,244 2,406 454 4,132 23,135 207,226 6 9 6 3 4 4 5 9 4 6 14 9 6 12 5 5 3 7 6 58,845 124,160 23,591 5,117 84,562 51,806 93,235 25,592 52,297 22,605 55,238 107,802 41,275 1,057,929 26,283 51,836 14,470 56,360 375,343 9 2,328,346 Source: SANDAG 1988 - Comparison of Ethnicity by City f J CJI I..JI 1 J (2) Farm Workers The housing needs of farm workers represents another important category that has an impact upon the availability of housing especially for low income housing. The special needs of this group are not expressed as broadly as other special housing group lobbyists because: (a) the farm worker is often a migratory laborer who has not established a permanent legal residence; and (b) a substantial number of undocumented aliens perform agriculture related activities. Thus, the farm workers are provided the least habitable housing as well as the lower level of priorities when housing needs of special groups are being addressed. The migrant homeless population is significant in the North County area, where the county estimates there are approximately 12,000 people living mostly in the hills and canyons. Local Immigration and Naturalization Service officials have estimated that up to 80% of "migrants" in North San Diego County received temporary work pursuant to the Immigration Reform and Control Act's amnesty provisions. The approval rate for adjustment to permanent residence is extremely high — currently running at 95% of all amnesty applications. The high cost of housing and low wage scale has forced a significant population to seek housing alternatives (spider holes and underbrush encampments). Several trends will aggravate this special housing need: (1) the families are increasingly joining the workers and (2) the year-round nature of the region's agricultural base. The farm workers needs are difficult to quantify due to, among others, the language barrier, the fear of job loss, the fear of authority, and living conditions. The Cities of Encinitas, Lemon Grove, Oceanside, Poway, San Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista, and the unincorporated area reflect a high percentage of individuals employed in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining industries (see Table 5). In addition to a growth in flower and foliage production, fruit production has experienced a rapid expansion in San Diego County over the past decade. Moreover, the work force involved was so largely-undocumented prior to employer sanctions taking effect (December 1, 1988) that ten-year-old Census numbers are not reliable indicators to gauge farmworking housing needs. For example, Dun & Bradstreet data has estimated that at least 1,000 agricultural employees are in Encinitas. (Since the lowest employee size range was used for this purpose, the actual number is likely to be significantly higher.) A significant portion of the information and discussion of farm worker needs is based on comments and data provided by the California Rural Legal Assistance. 17 Table 5 Employment by Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Mining by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining 767 243 44 139 270 3,164 1,190 52 239 331 60 1,483 421 5,415 661 226 308 718 11,276 27,007 Percent Jurisdiction's Employment Base 2.5 0.5 0.3 2.6 0.6 14.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 4.5 0.3 5.0 4.4 0.9 3.1 1.7 4.1 3.9 14.0 Percent of Region's Workforce 2.8 0.9 0. 0. .2 .5 68.0 1.0 11.7 4.4 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.2 5.5 1.6 20.1 2.4 0.8 1.1 2.7 41.8 100.0% Source: SANDAG 1988 Regional Employment INFO Bulletin 18 ft* 1ft (3) Single Parents Single individuals with dependent children represent another important group with special housing needs. Although information concerning income for single- parent households with children is unavailable. The poverty status of female-headed families is illustrative of the needs of this special group. The proportion of single-parent households with children forms a significant portion of lower-income households "in need." Although no direct measurement of this need has been provided, the census information provides an indication of the magnitude of such needs. Single parent households require special consideration and assistance because they have a greater need for day care, health care, and related facilities. In the San Diego Region, the 1980 Census identified 45,212 female-headed households, with children accounting for 6.7% of the region's households. The housing needs of this group are of special concern because women tend to earn lower wages, which impacts the need for affordable housing. 19 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* oEscondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Region Total Total Households 13,510 30,419 6,879 2,248 28,449 4,284 25,076 7,715 21,570 7,243 14,219 29,077 10,086 321,598 6,223 15,555 5,149 13,749 107.045 670,094 Table 6 Single Parent With Children by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Male Householder With Children 204 377 40 22 390 23 282 163 167 153 219 346 124 3,441 56 170 60 137 1.317 7,691 Percent Total Households 1.5 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 Female Householder With Children 635 2,230 387 55 2,505 183 1,592 751 1,353 474 1,596 1,782 647 22,351 329 1,160 312 1,033 5.837 45,212 *These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Report i M Percent Total Households 4.7 7.3 5.6 2.4 8.8 4.3 6.3 9.7 6.3 6.5 11.2 6.1 6.4 6.9 5.3 7.5 6.1 7.5 5.4 6.7 14 c.J Below Female Householder With Children 28 145 17 7 185 17 115 108 71 39 258 198 37 2,026 6 89 5 124 480 3,955 1 I.JI II Poverty Percent of Total Households 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.6 il i 1 (4) Elderly Based on census data, approximately 358,000 San Diegans were over 55 years of age in 1980, accounting for slightly more than 19 percent of the county's population. The 55+ population had increased by 61.5 percent between 1970 and 1980. During the same time period, individuals in the 65-74 age group, increased by 61.0 percent, while those groups of individuals aged 75 years and older increased by 63.9 percent, close to twice the rate of growth for the non senior population. The California Department of Finance has estimated that by the year 2000, 20 percent of the county's population will be 55 years or older; and by 2020, the figure will rise to 29.8%. In 1980, 253,879 persons received Social Security benefits, representing a rise of 58.5 percent from 160,179 persons in 1971. In 1980, the average monthly retiree benefit payments were $338, representing a 154 percent increase from $133 in 1971. Within the San Diego Region, the elderly spend a higher percentage of their income for food, housing, medical care, and personal care than non-retired families. Many elderly households need smaller "efficiency" units to make independent living possible. The limited incomes of elderly persons make it difficult to find affordable housing. Where elderly persons can live with other family members or can afford to maintain their own home, their housing needs can be met. Many single elderly persons need some form of housing assistance. 21 Table 7 Residence Characteristics of Elderly Households Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Ml m. 65 and Over Single Family Dwellings1 oMultiple Dwellings 2 Units3 3 and 4 Units 5 to 9 Units 10 to 49 Units 50 or more Units Mobile Home, Trailer, Etc. Total Heads of Households 67,158 7,927 3,372 4,689 11,501 8,428 16,965 120,040 Percent 56.0% 14.1% 100.0% % for All Age Groups 62.1% 6.6% 2.8% 3.9% 9.6% 7.0% 6.7% 4.0% 5.1% 11.2% 5.8% 5.1% 100.0% •I m ^Owner and renter-occupied housing units ^Renter-occupied housing units Includes owner-occupied, 2 or more units Source: 1980 Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, San Diego Economic Development, Vol. 33, No. 9, September 1985 hi 22 Table 8 Elderly Householder by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Area Regional Total Total Householders 65 Years + 118,163 Percent Jurisdiction's Households 17.7 17.2 23.6 15.5 15.8 20.1 26.1 7.8 19.2 18.0 16.5 22.9 7.2 16.9 26.6 12.6 14.2 26.3 17.4 17.6 Percent Region's Households 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.1 8.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 2.8 17.6 *These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: Compiled from 1980 Census Summary Report 23 Table 9 Elderly Population Projections Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1990, 2000 and 2020 Age Group 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years or more Total 55 years or more Percent of all age groups 1990 94,465 95,697 86,905 69,554 53,851 34,591 24,691 459,754 19.3% 2000 131,972 107,382 89,715 84,864 69,205 46,832 40,047 570,017 20.0% 2020 230,909 251,103 219,998 166,982 96, 445 61,930 60,581 1,087,948 29.8% Source: California Department of Finance Report 86-P-3 San Diego Economic Bulletin, Vol. 33, No. 9, September 1985 Total Table 10 Elderly Estimated Income Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Income Less than $5,000 $5,000 to $9,999 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 or more Age 55 to 59 1,198 2,946 4,005 4,948 5,971 8,785 6,380 4,208 Age 60 to 64 1,420 3,305 4,622 4,970 4,953 6,490 4,105 2,587 Age 65+ 3,144 15,286 14,816 10,709 6,972 7,570 4,144 2,948 % of 55+ Households 4.2% 14.7% 16.6% 15.2% 13.5% 17.4% 11.1% 7.3% 38,441 32,452 65,589 100.0% *Income derived by multiplying lower bracket income by number of households, except at the lowest range where 2,500 was used. Source: 1980 Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Economic Research Bureau, Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce. 24 (5) Handicapped/Disabled One of the most difficult housing needs category to quantify is that of the handicapped/disabled. The proportion of these needs is increasing due to lower fatality rates and/or higher longevity rates resulting from advances in the medical sciences. Available census data (1980) include responses to two disability related questions: (a) work disability, and (b) transportation disability. These needs were updated in the 1988 Housing Assistance Plans (HAP's). These plans estimate 45,902 handicapped persons in 1988 (work disability), and 20,326 with a transportation disability. Although cross-tabulations of income, household sizes, or race with disability are not available, a significant portion of the handicapped household income would fall within Section 8 income limits, especially those households not in the labor force. A significant portion of the lower income handicapped fall into the "in need" category. The combination of design and location requirements which are limited in supply and are more expensive affect the housing needs of the handicapped. Table 11 Work Disability Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Disability Total A. With Work Disability 45,902 1. In labor force 17,024 2. Not in labor force 28,878 a. Prevented from working 22,984 b. Not prevented from working 5,894 B. No Work Disability 545,391 Total 591,293 Source: Housing Assistance Plans (1988-1991) 25 Table 12 Ml Transportation Disability Regional Housing Needs Statement % San Diego Region ^ 1988 m Age . Total ** A. Age 16-64 * «# With a public transportation disability 8,331 No public transportation disability 580,418 * wtB. Age 65+ With a public transportation disability " 11,995 *! No public transportation disability 70,644 ** Source: Housing Assistance Plans (1988-1991) ^ «* HUD's definition of handicapped is defined as "a physical or mental impairment *• which substantially limits one or more major life activities; a record of such an 5 impairment; or being regarded as having such an impairment." HUD's definition does not coincide with the census definition; however, transportation and work disabilities certainly constitute the main ingredients to determine independent living. Table 13 Elderly and Disabled Persons I Regional Housing Needs Statement *** San Diego Region 1980 - 2010 Age 1980 1985 2000 2010 * 60-64 195,089 225,948 229,120 421,793 ** 75+ 73,669 96,230 151,465 189,606 60+ 268,758 322,181 450,585 189,606 % of Total Population 14.6% 15.1% 16.2% 19.4% *• Total 425,000 491,400 640,400 725,500 ^ Persons Using Wheelchairs 14,900 17,100 22,275 25,250 .* Developmentally Disabled 73,850 85,500 111,375 126,175 Total: Mobility Impaired 83,800 96,150 125,300 142,000 «• Source: SANDAG's Regional Transportation Plan - 1989 26 (6) Studentsw Student housing is another significant factor that ** affects housing demand. Although students may «* produce a temporary housing need, the impact upon housing demand and post-study residence is critical in m the immediate university areas. San Diego State University, the largest university in the region, has an *^ enrollment of 35,309 students, but only provides housing for 2,489 students on campus. The University of San Diego houses approximately 2,000 students on * campus for a student enrollment of 5,300. The University of California at San Diego provides on ** campus housing for 4,700 students for a student m enrollment of 16,187. Other smaller universities and junior colleges in the region have similar housing «* problems. 1* The same market forces that impact the lower income housing population will influence studentm housing. The high cost of housing, condominium M conversions, and student restrictions make it difficult for students to find affordable housing. This w influence is extended beyond graduation and has a m detrimental impact upon the region's economy. The recent graduates provide a specialized pool of skilled ^ labor that is vital to the region; however, the lack of affordable housing often leads to their departure from ** the region. HI pf 27 Table 14 Student Population by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Population 35,490 83,927 16,859 5,017 73,892 10,796 64,355 22,689 50,308 20,780 48,772 76,698 32,263 875,538 17,479 47,080 13,047 35,834 331,022 1,861,846 (1) Nursery School 530 1,040 204 18 993 175 803 341 401 279 420 746 528 10,286 314 771 194 448 4,355 22,846 (2) Kindergarten % & Elementary % 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 (3) 4,025 11,427 1,527 370 9,018 1,092 8,208 3,097 4,494 2,665 6,419 8,881 5,843 106,007 2,642 7,940 1,469 4,408 45,350 234,882 (4) 11.3 13.6 9.1 7.4 12.2 10.1 12.8 13.6 8.9 12.8 13.2 11.6 18.1 12.1 15.1 16.9 11.3 12.3 13.7 12.6 (5) High School % 2,109 6,195 803 199 4,447 697 3,831 1,456 2,666 1,203 2,657 3,829 2,848 48,898 974 3,350 903 1,952 22,503 111,520 (6) 5.9 7.4 4.8 4.0 6.0 6.5 6.0 6.4 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 8.8 5.6 5.6 7.1 6.9 5.4 6.8 6.0 (7) College 2,503 6,322 1,245 961 5,181 848 3,541 1,289 5,966 1,090 2,106 4,941 2,309 86,878 1,283 2,544 1,385 2,167 18,464 151,023 (8) % 7.1 7.5 7.4 19.2 7.0 7.9 5.5 5.7 11.9 5.2 4.3 6.4 7.2 9.9 7.3 5.4 10.6 6.0 5.6 8.1 (9) Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Report 28 Table 15 Student Population* by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 1989 Population 62,030 128,026 24,595 5,131 86,403 53,120 99,007 25,970 53,004 22,749 56,475 117,597 43,121 1,086,592 33,835 52,402 14,694 61,742 391,688 2,418,181 (1) Nursery School 930 1,536 295 21 1,123 850 1,188 390 424 296 508 1,176 690 13,039 609 838 220 803 5,092 30,028 (2) Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Source: *Based on estimates from Table 14, e.g., Carlsbad 1.5% (Table 14, Col. 3) x 62,030 (Table 15, Col. 1) Kindergarten & Elementary 7,009 17,412 2,238 380 10,541 5,365 12,673 3,532 4,717 2,912 7,455 13,641 7,805 131,478 5,109 8,856 1,660 7,594 53,661 304,038 (3) High School 3,660 9,474 1,181 205 5,184 3,453 5,940 1,662 2,809 1,319 3,050 5,880 3,795 60,849 1,895 3,721 1,014 3,334 26,635 145,060 (4) College 4,404 9,602 1,820 985 6,048 4,196 5,445 1,480 6,307 1,183 2,428 7,526 3,105 107,573 2,470 2,830 1,558 3,705 21,935 194,600 (5) IK flfc. 29 (7) Military The military populations influence on the demand for housing takes two forms: (a) the existing military household trying to find housing, and (b) the former (either retirement or non-retirement separation) military households trying to find housing. According to the latest military statistics, approximately 40,000 military families that are eligible for housing and only 6,439 government owned family housing units are available. The major concentrations of military population center around Camp Pendleton, Miramar Naval Air Station, and other Navy stations in the central and southbay areas of the cities of San Diego, Coronado, National City, Chula Vista and Imperial Beach. Table 16 Military Family Housing Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region January 1988 Total Military Personnel Strength 108,651 Total Permanent Party Strength 81,211 Number of Military with Families 43,899 Officers 5,860 Eligible Enlisted E4 & Above 33,258 Other Enlisted Under E4 4,781 Total Living with Family in Area 38,981 If MlOfficers 5,611 Eligible Enlisted E4 & Above 29,919 * Other Enlisted Under E4 3,451 I Ml Types of Housing: Military Housing 5,888 Owner Occupied Housing 14,690 Off-Base Rental Housing 17,784 , Owner Occupied Mobile Homes 619 *• Off -Base Rental Housing 1" "OA Source: Military Family Housing Study (1988) 30 1 « f I 1 • I i i 1 f t i i II i i I i f I i t I I f I «€ t • 1 Table 17 Military Family Housing Surrey Results Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 OJ Family Housing Survey Results Year Rec'd FY 1990 Aug 88 FY 1989 Oct 87 FY 1988 Sep 85 FY 1987 Sep 84 FY 1986 Sep 83 FY 1985 Sep 82 FY 1984 Jan 82 FY 1983 Jan 81 FY 1982 Jan 80 Number Military With Families 43,899 45,876 46,114 43,588 42,579 38,502 37,175 37,947 38,605 # Living W/Family Officer 5860 5992 6231 6366 5957 5933 5713 5972 5956 E4-E9 33,258 35,146 34,624 31,964 31,202 28,121 27,583 27,738 28,821 E1-E3 4781 4738 5259 5258 5420 4448 3879 4237 3824 in Area 38,981 40,774 38,784 36,648 36,000 32,832 31,916 31,502 33,022 Officer 5611 5737 5954 6063 5683 57Z4 5500 5789 5688 E4-E9 29,919 31,617 29,811 27,317 27,068 24,575 24,138 23,359 25,196 E1-E3 3451 3420 3019 3268 3249 2533 2278 2354 2138 Military Housing 5888 5912 5907 5023 5469 5774 5739 5697 5478 Owner Owner Off Occupied Base Occupied Mobile Housing 14,690 15,546 13,266 13,641 13,339 13,310 13,029 12,305 14,414 Homes 619 655 876 931 646 342 483 452 522 Rental Housing 17,784 18,661 18,735 17,053 16,546 13,406 12,665 13,048 12,608 Total Military Strength 108,651 110,307 104,388 92,099 105,986 101,016 100,793 101,464 98,486 Total Pro- Permanent gramming Party Strength 81,211 84,769 85,704 83,552 85,513 79,697 78,394 79,651 77,927 Housing Deficit 2,668 3,322 3,607* 2,271 2,518 7,260 7,276 5,751 12,582 * Includes E-3 and below Source: Military Family Housing Report (8) Homeless (a) Definitions The most recent legislation governing housing element (65583(a)(6)) mandates municipalities to address the special housing needs of the homeless within their jurisdictional boundaries. The homeless are defined as individuals that lack a fixed and adequate nighttime residence. The primary residences of the homeless are: 1. Publicly or privately operated emergency shelter. 2. In the street, park, abandoned building, automobile, or in any other public or private place not intended to be used as regular sleeping accommodations for humans. 3. In temporary makeshift arrangements in the accommodations of others. (b) Demographics The homeless population in San Diego region includes a variety of people such as families, single parents with children, single women, single men, farm workers, Vietnam veterans, employed, unemployed and the unemployable, mentally ill, developmentally disabled, alcoholics and drug abusers, runaways and throwaway youth, and victims of domestic violence. Families are considered to be the largest growing sector of the homeless population. According to nationwide statistics, 40 percent of the homeless are families with children. Based upon this percentage, the number of children living on the streets could equal 2,000. Half of these children are under the age of six years. Exact figures cannot be used to quantify the region's homeless; however, estimates can be made based upon information supplied by service providers and those who work with this population. It is important to recognize that these homeless individuals may fall into more than one category (e.g., a homeless individual may be a veteran and a substance abuser) thus, making it difficult to accurately quantify and categorize (e.g., elderly, veterans, etc.) the homeless. The homeless population in the San Diego Region is estimated to be 5,000 people, with 3,000 located in downtown San Diego 32 (Regional Homeless Task Force). Most communities within the San Diego region have experienced some type of homeless problem in their jurisdiction. Approximately 950 of these individuals spend the evening in an emergency shelter operated by public or private agencies, and it is believed that as many as 2,000-2,500 sleep outside. An additional 2,000 persons are believed to be doubled up with an acquaintance or a relative. According to a report by the County of San Diego, the homeless that are employed account for more than 20 percent of the homeless population. Generally both parents work, but their combined incomes do not make it possible to secure a month's rent and deposits. Due to the reduced funding for mental health services, it is estimated that 25-30 percent of the homeless are mentally ill. It is assumed that 7 out of every 10 mentally ill persons suffer from personality disorders that affect their ability to deal with daily expectations and demands. An estimated 2 of every 10 mentally ill suffer from anxiety and phobic disorders and milder depressive conditions. Approximately 1,000 individuals (20%) are believed to be active substance abusers. A majority of these are among the mentally ill population. One of every 10 suffers from major mental illnesses of schizophrenia and depressive disorders. Anxiety, depression, sleeplessness, and loss of appetite are often attributed to their homeless condition. Many of the mentally ill have become homeless because of their disorders and inadequate treatment and support. A significant number of homeless women and children are thought to be escaping from abuse. A number of these women are inadequately prepared for earning an income, and it appears to be safer for them to be in the streets than to live in their own homes. An estimated 70 percent of the homeless population (3,500) are single adults. The majority (75%) are young males seeking either permanent employment or casual labor, who are considered transients, and are constantly moving from one area to another seeking employment. An increasing number of employed homeless adults are earning incomes that do not meet housing expenses. 33 30% FIGURE 1 WHO THE HOMELESS ARE REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT SAN DIEGO REGION 1988 15% Youth Family Members Single Men Single Women 50% SOURCE: Regional Task Force on the Homeless WHERE THE HOMELESS ARE FOUND REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT SAN DIEGO REGION 1988 18% 40% In Emergency Shelters On the Streets Doubled-up with Others 42% SOURCE: Regional Task Force on the Homeless 34 5* f* Of the estimated homeless single men, at least 40 percent (1,000) are veterans. A small percentage of the single adults (5%) is elderly individuals. A majority of the homeless elderly are periodically homeless due to low fixed incomes and high housing costs. The last group to be addressed is the vagrants/transients. Vagrants/transients seldom have roots. They steal or panhandle in order to support their substance abuse or daily sustenance. Vagrants, in addition to the "regulars" seen rummaging through trash, generally have little or no contact with homeless service providers. d. Households (1) Existing In 1980, household population was measured at 1,861,846 and projected to increase to 2,453,300 by 1995. The projected increase of more than 500,000 people over a fifteen year time frame constitute a thirty-two percent increase in population. In 1980, there were 670,094 households. By 1989, households grew to 876,717, an increase of 30.8 percent. The City of San Diego contains almost half of the existing households, while almost 14 percent of the region's households are located in the unincorporated areas. The remaining 39.6 percent of all households reside in the other seventeen cities. (2) Projected By 1995, the number of households is projected to reach 958,023, an increase of 9.3% from 1989 (876,717 households). Household population was measured at 2,298,105 in 1989, and is expected to grow to 2,453,300 by 1995, representing an increase of 6.3%. During this time, the persons per household rate will have declined to under 2.7. The impact of this gradual incline generates a greater demand for housing with the same population base. The projected growth in households parallels the population growth. The growth areas in North County, South Bay, and selected unincorporated communities will experience the largest increase in households. 35 Distribution Estimates by Jurisdiction The following list is based upon each jurisdictions response to a 8ANDAG survey to determine the order of magnitude of the homeless and their geographic distribution. Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Response Approximately one half dozen transients can be considered residents. In the South Bay, an estimated 350-500 are considered homeless. Breakdown: Families: Single Persons: Children: Alcohol and Substance Abusers: Mentally 111: 60% 25% 5% 5% 5% Information not available Information not available Majority of homeless are mentally ill and/or substance abusers. Information not available Information not available Information not available Approximately 35-40 homeless individuals Information not available Information not available Families: Mentally 111 25% 25% -33% Approximately 300 homeless individuals Approximately 3,000 homeless individuals (located Downtown) Information not available Approximately 30-45 homeless individuals Information not available Information not available San Diego County Approximately 5,000 homeless individuals. 36 Table 18 Existing Households by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 ¥ Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Total Population 62,030 128,026 24,595 5,131 86,403 53,120 99,007 25,970 53,004 22,749 56,475 117,597 43,121 1,086,592 33,835 52,402 14,694 61,742 391,688 Household Population 61,104 126,222 16,438 5,101 83,675 52,541 97,597 25,333 51,753 21,967 45,003 115,884 42,910 1,030,050 33,436 51,505 14,496 61,106 361,984 Households 25,358 47,007 7,560 2,383 33,110 20,112 39,459 8,869 22,781 8,190 15,062 43,911 13,414 408,462 12,610 17,695 5,752 23,723 121,259 Percent of Households in Region 2.9 5.4 0.9 0.3 3.8 2.3 4.5 1.0 2.6 0.9 1.7 5.0 1.5 46.6 1.4 2.0 0.7 2.7 13.8 2,418,181 2,298,105 876,717 100.0% Source: Department of Finance and January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates 37 Table 19 Projected Households By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1995 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Total Population 77,310 132,304 25,475 5,223 85,353 55,890 105,136 26,241 53,798 23,661 55,409 130,664 44,591 1,138,675 40,725 57,185 15,055 67,728 426,770 Household Population 76,349 131,574 17,763 5,187 83,552 55,542 104,112 25,599 52,489 22,859 44,247 128,926 44,328 1,084,483 40,486 56,547 14,881 66,182 398,194 Households 31,800 50,251 8,151 2,380 34,087 21,448 42,265 9,277 23,484 8,741 15,341 50,456 14,461 438,040 15,399 19,951 5,909 26,159 140,423 Percent of Households in Region 3.3 5.2 0.9 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.4 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.6 5.3 1.5 45.7 1.6 2.1 0.6 2.7 14.7 2,567,193 2,453,300 958,023 100% Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 38 e. Household Size Due to the declining birth rates, the average number of persons per household is anticipated to continue its decline (from 3.1 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1985), to 2.5 by 2010. Another trend of the baby boom generation includes the passing of its prime child-bearing years. Births are anticipated to peak in the latter part of this decade to the highest level, since the early 1960's. Household size is a significant factor in shaping housing demand. The small household (1-2 persons per household) traditionally can find suitable housing in units with 0-2 bedrooms while family households (3-4 persons per household) can find suitable housing in units with 3-4 bedrooms, and large households (5 or more persons per household) can find suitable housing in units with 4 or more bedrooms. However, the choices also reflect preference and economics. Thus, many small households prefer, and obtain, large units. Household size is also related to choice of locations. For example, the small household (single person/elderly) is usually not concerned with the quality of the school system. 39 Table 20 Household Size By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Households by Persons in Unit 6+TotalJurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total 159,098 231,213 112,288 92,374 43,323 31,798 670,094 2,863 6,684 2,130 727 6,937 1,091 6,131 1,315 6,120 1,391 2,999 6,250 959 89,478 987 2223 1,136 3,098 16,579 5,439 9,879 2,618 834 9,838 1,647 9,279 2,318 8,652 2,520 3,990 11,418 2,876 107,414 29,494 4,863 1,921 5,088 11,125 2,224 5,322 993 342 5,240 679 3,979 1,775 3,412 1,428 2,788 4,966 2,070 50,310 990 3,034 842 2,281 19,613 1,864 4,576 675 234 3,938 516 3,206 1,379 2,133 1,085 2,106 3,389 2,401 39,432 982 3,196 705 1,782 18,775 759 2,274 279 80 1,634 212 1,438 556 839 505 1,186 1,649 1,089 19,107 494 1,424 307 818 8,673 437 1,663 128 36 877 144 1,013 424 407 347 1,221 1,350 654 15,319 295 829 155 623 5,876 13,586 30,398 6,823 2,253 28,464 4,289 25,046 7,767 21,563 7,276 14,290 29,022 10,049 321,060 33,242 15,569 5,066 13,690 80,641 These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Report 40 f. Age Age distribution is a significant market characteristic, because housing demand within the market is determined by the housing preferences of certain age groups. Traditionally, the young adult population (20-34 year olds) tend to favor apartments, low to moderate cost condominiums, and smaller single-family units. The 35 to 65 year old group provides the major market for moderate to high-cost apartments and condominiums and larger single-family units because they tend to have higher incomes and larger household size. The elderly population demands are similar to young adults. The median age of the total resident population is projected to rise sharply. The median age in 1980 was 30.5 years, and by 1990, it is expected to rise to 36 years. By 1990, the 35 to 64 year old age group will be the fastest growing. The increase in this age group is attributed to anticipated employment opportunities and the aging of the baby boom generation. Based upon the median age of each jurisdiction, the range varies from 24.0 years in Imperial Beach to 33.6 years in Coronado. These figures reflect the economic profile of the communities. The concentration of retirees and elderly raises the median age figures. The distribution of age groups is an important factor to consider in the development of housing strategies. As the households mature, the housing choices vary dramatically. The region, and each jurisdiction, must assess its population characteristics to determine its housing demand constituency. 41 Table 21 Age and Sex Distribution by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Age Median Age 32.2 30.5 33.6 32.2 28.6 30.8 24.0 33.0 30.9 24.3 28.6 30.6 28.4 31.2 27.6 29.6 29.1 28.8 i Total Population 35,490 83,927 16,859 5,017 73,892 64,355 22,689 50,308 20,780 48,772 76,698 42,730 875,538 17,479 40,039 35,834 351,439 1,861,846 Sex Male 17,787 40,738 8,769 2,576 35,362 30,851 11,661 23,668 10,067 26,459 38,166 21,368 450,654 8,540 19,762 17,355 183,763 947,546 50.9% Female 17,703 43,189 8,090 2,441 38,530 33,504 11,028 26,640 10,713 22,313 38,532 21,362 424,884 8,939 20,277 18,479 167,676 914,300 49.1% Under 5 2,286 5,745 686 125 5,795 4,913 2,658 2,296 1,589 4,914 6,412 2,948 55,994 1,445 3,562 2,891 24,700 128,959 6.9% 5-9 2,120 5,893 787 170 4,935 4,349 1,861 2,234 1,430 3,706 4,903 3,727 55,785 1,464 3,612 2,386 24,557 123,919 6.7% 10-17 3,938 11,600 1,537 405 8,608 7,451 2,655 4,930 2,464 5,210 8,135 7,194 99,653 2,137 6,045 4,162 46,711 222,835 12.0% 18-24 4,363 11,248 2,837 1,005 12,586 8,844 4,922 8,207 2,613 11,682 13,629 4,039 161,768 1,699 4,650 5,344 54,603 314,039 16.9% 25-59 16,908 37,002 7,589 2,552 31,095 25,448 9,091 22,330 8,896 18,002 29,382 20,447 382,649 7,175 18,066 13,772 152,932 803,336 43.1% 60-64 1,810 3,830 1,085 231 2,919 2,879 580 2,898 1,052 1,377 3,727 1,615 34,376 838 1,248 1,565 14,984 77,014 4.1% 65-74 2,768 5,201 1,482 352 4,399 5,896 652 4,244 1,491 2,251 6,895 2,032 51,626 1,841 1,863 3,192 21,890 118,075 6.3% 75 & Over 1,297 3,408 856 177 3,555 4,575 270 3,169 1,245 1,630 3,615 728 33,687 880 993 2,522 11,062 73,669 4.0% Area Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Vista Un incorporate d Areas** Total San Diego County Percent of Total Population *These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. **Encinitas and Solana Beach are reflected in the unincorporated area's figures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Compiled by the Economic Research Bureau of the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce i I i *tut i J FIGURE 2 AGEXSEX PYRAMID (IN 1 .GOO'S) REGIONAL HOUSING NEED STATEMENT SAN DIEGO REGION 1985-2010 .«*> M 300 200 300 1985 2010 m A, SOURCE: INFO Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 43 g. Income Income characteristics are considered to be one of the most important market indicators, because they influence the range of housing prices in the community and the ability of the population to afford housing. In comparison with the past twenty-five years, personal income for those residing in the San Diego Region is expected to increase, but at a slower rate. The region's distribution of household income significantly impacts the housing market. Household income ranges are directly related to housing tenure and type. As the income of households increases, the number of homeowners increases. The growth of household income and increases in housing costs are also linked to the number of households that pay disproportionate amounts of their income for housing and increases in households occupying unsound and overcrowded housing. Housing quality and conditions are therefore directly related to income. Four income categories are used in the RHNS: very low, other low, moderate, and above moderate. These categories are recommended by the State Department of Housing and Community Development and are consistent with a State Attorney General's Opinion. Separate income limits exist for each household size for each income category. The income limits for a four-person household are those shown below. The limits for other household sizes are determined by household size adjustment factors. HOUSEHOLD MEDIAN INCOME CATEGORIES 1989 Median Household Income of $30,583 • Very Low Income Households: Those households whose income is not more than fifty percent of the region's median income, adjusted for household size. ($0 - $15,292 in 1989.) • Other Low Income Households! Those households whose income is between fifty percent and eighty percent of the median income. ($15,293 - $24,466 in 1989.) • Moderate Income Households; Those households whose income is between eighty percent and one-hundred-twenty percent of the region's median income. ($24,467 - $36,700 in 1989.) 44 • Above Moderate Income; Those households whose income is more than one- hundred-twenty percent or more of the region's median income. (Over $36,701 in 1989.) The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) estimates "area median family income." A set of factors is used to calculate income limits by "family" size. In HUD regulations, family has the same meaning as household. These income limits are used to categorize households by income. The same circumstances apply to the moderate income level: HCD multiplies HUDS's area median family income by a set of factors to determine a set of moderate income limits by household size. Table 22 Income Limits By Category Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 Income Category*Limit By Size •» My 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 4 Person 5 Person 6 Person Very Low Low Moderate Above Moderate *Based on Median Income of $36,700 (2/89) Source: U.S. Housing & Urban Development and State Housing & Community Development $13,250 $20,550 $30,825 $30,825 $15,100 $23,500 $35,250 $35,250 $17,000 $26,400 $39,600 $39,600 $18,900 $29,350 $44,025 $44,025 $20,400 $31,200 $46,800 $46,800 $21,900 $33,000 $49,500 $49,500 45 Table 23 Household Income By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Household Income Distribution City Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas <£. Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Totals $0-9,999 1,358 4,629 698 229 4,733 1,741 4,153 1,157 2,596 757 3,224 4,494 328 48,291 638 775 455 2,735 8.496 $10,000- 14.999 1,293 4,397 576 170 3,976 1,641 3,995 1,341 2,360 729 2,500 4,712 404 40,444 756 785 332 2,634 7,693 $15,000- 24,999 3,484 10,182 1,240 367 7,914 3,829 8,756 2,681 5,096 1,975 4,312 10,064 1,425 84,974 2,172 2,946 806 5,349 19,732 $25,000- 34.999 3,864 9,029 1,124 341 6,042 3,557 7,294 1,783 4,265 1,919 2,585 7,967 2,012 71,117 2,257 4,134 841 4,079 20,578 $35,000- 49,999 5,095 9,006 1,297 408 5,351 3,897 6,908 1,228 4,138 1,796 1,644 7,131 3,156 71,156 2,352 5,340 1,093 3,583 25.120 $50,000- and up 8,990 8,444 2,514 866 4,562 5,014 6,291 589 4,101 980 692 6,042 5,573 80,966 1,727 3,574 2,169 3,053 36,112 Total Households 24,084 45,687 7,449 2,381 32,578 19,679 37,397 8,779 22,556 8,156 14,957 40,410 12,898 396,948 9,902 17,554 5,696 21,433 117,731 91,487 80,738 177,304 154,788 159,699 182,259 846,275 Source: SANDAG - 1988 Estimates of Household Income By City *»*>4 m IK t Table 24 Per Capita Income Income By Jurisdiction (By Rank) Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1985 Percent Percent 1985 of State Change Rank City 1985 Average 1985/1979 1 Del Mar $18,954 159.5% 44.3% 2 Coronado 16,357 137.6% 52.2% 3 Carlsbad 15,640 131.6% 52.2% 4 Poway 13,396 112.7% 56.7% 5 Solana Beach 12,651 106.4% 42.3% 6 La Mesa 12,455 104.8% 42.2% 7 San Diego City 11,766 99.0% 46.8% 8 San Marcos 10,537 88.7% 45.2% 9 Chula Vista 10,485 88.2% 46.2% 10 Escondido 10,428 87.7% 50.6% 11 Oceanside 10,407 87.6% 47.8% 12 Santee 10,266 86.4% 46.7% 13 Vista 10,212 85.9% 41.7% 14 El Cajon 10,048 84.5% 40.2% 15 Lemon Grove 9,639 81.1% 36.9% 16 Imperial Beach 7,655 64.4% 43.9% 17 National City 6,977 58.7% 38.3% San Diego Unincorporated $11,600 97.6% 45.7% California $11,885 - 43.3% Note: Encinitas became incorporated in 1986 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics San Diego Economic Bulletin, Vol. 37, No. 2, February 1989 47 h. Employment The employment factor is significant in planning for housing. The issues of jobs and housing balance is becoming increasingly more important. The recognition of the concept that as jurisdictions promote employment they should also promote the housing for such employees has brought attention to this issue. In 1988, nearly 1.16 million people were employed, the major component was wage and salary workers, including nearly 131,000 active duty military personnel. By the year 2000, the employment figure is expected to increase to 1.3 million, and close to 1.6 million by 2010. The unemployment rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The 1985 unemployment rate (5%) was considerably lower than the 1980 figure; however, it is expected to reach 7.5 over the next ten years. Between 1980 and 1988, employment growth in the cities of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Coronado, Escondido, and San Marcos had annual average rates over ten percent. The largest portion of the region's employment was held by the City of San Diego (641,158), registered a 28.1 percent increase between 1980 and 1988. The unincorporated area accounted for the second largest share of total employment. The decrease in employment by the City of Imperial Beach is attributed to the loss of city employees when the police department was eliminated, along with the closing of a service firm with over 200 employees. 48 Table 25 Total Employment By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 and 1988 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway** San Diego San Marcos Santee** Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated* Regional Total 1980 16,189 30,165 16,198 3,104 35,071 26,664 3,631 18,535 5,383 24,880 22,941 6,644 500,401 10,246 7,492 10,931 101,932 840,407 1988 30,252 47,233 40,263 5,450 43,208 21,765 48,402 3,432 24,884 7,283 32,610 29,934 9,513 641,158 21,662 12,920 7,460 18,400 117,327 1,163,156 Annual Average Growth Rate 10.9% 11.3% 18.6% 9.4% 2.9% 10.2% -0.7% 4.3% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 5.4% 3.5% 13.9% 9.1% 8.5% 1.9% 4.8% *Encinitas and Solana Beach were incorporated in 1986. Their 1980 data are included in unicorporated. **These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: SANDAG 1988 INFO - Regional Employment Inventory 49 Table 26 Employment by Industry by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 tno Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Mining 767 243 44 139 270 3,164 1,190 52 239 331 60 1,483 421 5,415 661 226 308 718 11.276 Construction 1,621 1,637 163 109 4,621 1,266 6,796 129 2,148 1,117 1,334 1,620 959 26,471 3,524 2,702 570 1,425 12.817 Manufacturing Transportation Communication Utilities 1,047 1,199 181 152 744 345 820 69 504 373 426 604 165 25,235 473 295 137 621 5.305 Wholesale Trade 1,117 1,602 42 61 2,187 732 1,757 18 505 315 1,498 870 199 26,405 2,035 653 238 805 3.015 Retail Trade 6,972 11,946 1,964 1,064 11,340 6,418 14,414 922 7,510 1,787 7,544 7,639 2,525 93,679 3,201 2,073 1,632 4,256 12.239 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 2,743 2,306 344 531 2,057 1,444 2,947 192 2,557 214 1,416 1,595 493 47,407 705 306 1,018 1,417 3.943 Services 7,886 9,874 3,233 1,644 9,017 5,995 12,061 736 9,168 1,897 4,874 8,575 2,945 175,447 3,207 2,174 2,462 5,255 16.152 Government Military 1,827 7,001 34,188 1,674 6,158 1,806 4,170 1,282 1,820 823 12,471 3,861 1,597 158,531 2,098 2,434 504 2,877 48.704 Total 30,252 47,233 40,263 5,450 43,208 21,765 48,402 3,432 24,884 7,283 32,610 29,934 9,513 641,158 21,662 12,920 7,460 18,400 117.327 Regional Totals 27,007 71,029 133,183 38,695 44,054 199,125 73,635 282,602 293,826 1,163,156 Source: SANDAG INFO Regional Employment Inventory 1989 I Jl 4-JI L > 4** 1 it m to m m i. Commuting Patterns Commuting patterns relate primarily to the relation of housing to employment opportunities and is a component in allocation of growth to localities. As a result of the increase in the economic base, employment levels, and physical separation of housing and employment sites, the number of people commuting to work has increased. Since 1980, traffic on the region's freeway system has increased by fifty percent, while traffic on local streets and roads has increased thirty percent. The past twenty years have seen a fifty-four percent increase in motor vehicle ownership. The number of households without a vehicle decreased from eleven percent in 1966 to five percent in 1986, while those with two or more vehicles increased from forty-four percent to sixty-three percent. The combination of increased vehicle ownership, higher employment levels, and the greater number of residents of driving age are contributing factors to the twenty-five percent increase that has occurred in vehicle trips per household. Travel forecasts indicate that vehicle miles of travel will continue to grow at a rate somewhat less than twice the growth rate of the population (see Figure 1). 51 Table 27 Mean Trip Length By Trip Type Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1987 Minutes Distance 1977 1986 1977 1986 Home to Work 14.5 16.9 8.8 10.6 Home to Shop 6.4 8.4 3.5 4.9 Home to Other 8.9 10.0 5.3 6.1 Work to Other 10.7 12.2 6.4 7.6 Other to Other 7.5 8.8 4.3 5.3 All Trip Types 9.3 10.6 5.5 6.4 Source: SANDAG INFO Number 2 - Travel Behavior in the San Diego Region 52 2. Supply a. Existing Housing Since 1980, approximately 200,000 housing units have been added to the region's housing stock. In 1989, there were 920,000 housing units in the region. The housing stock is predominantly single-family (56%); multi-family units account for 39% of total units in the region. Mobile homes comprise 5% of the total housing stock. The 1988 total of 28,120 completed units represented the lowest since 1984, and represented a decline of 22 percent from 1987. This slowdown may be attributed to a combination of factors including rising interest rates, a softening of the economy and/or development restrictions imposed by local growth management policies. Table 28 Housing Units by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 and 1989 Total Housing Units 1980 Census 15,352 31,888 8,397 2,482 30,097 N/A 27,153 8,197 22,616 7,555 14,748 32,733 10,716 341,928 6,508 13,800 N/A 14,962 131,214 January 1, 1989 Current Estimate 26,492 48,691 9,152 2,648 34,508 20,925 40,815 9,647 23,791 8,634 15,272 48,223 13,629 426,451 13,971 17,973 6,330 25,394 128,504 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total 720,346 921,050 *These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: SANDAG January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates (Department of Finance) 53 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas** Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway** San Diego San Marcos Santee** Solana Beach** Vista Unincorporated REGION 1980* Table 29 Housing Units Completed by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1980-1988 191 219 131 10 647 N/A 566 70 149 83 49 872 145 5,009 184 144 N/A 350 2,237 477 497 52 22 393 N/A 603 16 234 48 39 760 84 7,105 43 410 N/A 238 2,147 365 133 29 23 146 N/A 214 51 61 64 8 492 10 4,012 45 190 N/A 276 1,252 491 283 37 46 368 N/A 446 163 59 36 24 724 192 6,246 309 594 N/A 646 1,488 1,793 519 35 11 594 N/A 759 219 228 123 44 1,805 355 10,323 535 1,095 N/A 797 3,638 1,985 1,764 86 20 1,008 N/A 2,230 274 137 242 22 2,330 703 13,188 556 582 N/A 1,391 7,429 2,624 1,130 168 21 835 1,075 3,440 206 101 386 178 2,104 336 15,228 586 613 300 1,471 4,617 1,885 2,520 101 10 593 558 2,812 454 48 108 248 3,602 519 14,019 1,191 232 56 2,392 4,823 1,046 887 161 10 336 433 1,914 166 172 213 70 2,808 502 11,280 718 76 98 2,435 4,795 10,857 7,952 800 173 4,920 2,066 12,984 1,619 1,189 1,303 682 15,497 2,846 86,410 4,167 3,936 454 9,996 32,426 11,056 13,168 7,371 12,152 22,873 33,947 35,419 36,171 28,120 200,277 *1980 figure is April 1 through December 31. All others are full calendar year. **These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census; Santee & Poway Incorporated in 1980 and Encinitas & Solana Beach in 1986. Source: January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates 4.J il i j * m Regionwide, the housing stock grew by 27.9%, or 3.1% per year, (200,704 units) from 1980 to 1989, while the population increased by 30%. By January 1, 1989, there were 521,807 single-family units and 359,869 multi-family units. The total existing housing units estimates are further broken down by type of housing unit as illustrated in the following table. The region accounted for approximately 876,717 occupied units with a 4.9% vacant rate. The cities of Coronado, Del Mar, Imperial Beach, Lemon Grove, Oceanside, San Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista and the unincorporated area reflected vacancy rates exceeding 5% (see Table 28). m m 55 Table 30 Population by Housing Type by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 Housing Units Population City Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos San tee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Total 62,030 128,028 24,594 5,131 86,402 53,120 99,006 25,970 53,002 22,748 56,474 117,589 43,122 1,086,593 33,836 52,402 14,694 61,743 391,692 Household 61,104 126,222 16,438 5,101 83,675 52,541 97,597 25,333 51,753 21,967 45,003 115,884 42,910 1,030,050 33,436 51,505 14,496 61,106 361.984 Group Quarter 926 1,806 8,156 30 2,727 579 1,409 637 1,249 781 11,471 1,705 212 56,543 400 897 198 637 29.708 Single Family Total 26,492 48,691 9,152 2,648 34,508 20,925 40,815 9,647 23,791 8,634 15,272 48,223 13,629 426,451 13,971 17,973 6,330 25,394 128.504 Detached 13,213 22,369 4,201 1,249 12,939 11,151 18,667 4,110 11,208 5,651 6,757 21,912 10,341 206,761 6,111 10,013 2,820 12,101 84.846 Attached 2,235 2,969 647 249 1,732 3,191 1,813 616 1,061 492 809 5,962 443 25,170 452 750 939 2,019 3.838 Multi 2 to 4 2,696 3,784 694 302 1,637 3,350 2,615 997 1,503 876 1,700 3,781 372 41,284 397 999 493 1,577 7.037 Family 5 plus 7,349 16,003 3,580 814 16,236 2,532 14,269 3,730 9,579 1,575 5,765 13,866 1,885 149,078 3,454 4,000 2,038 8,092 19.930 Mobile Homes 999 3,566 30 34 1,964 701 3,453 194 440 40 238 2,702 588 5,049 3,558 2,210 40 1,605 12.853 Occupied 25,358 47,007 7,560 2,383 33,110 20,112 39,459 8,869 22,781 8,190 15,062 43,911 13,414 408,462 12,610 17,695 5,752 23,723 121.259 Percent Vacant 4.28 3.46 17.40 10.01 4.05 3.89 3.33 8.06 4.25 5.14 1.36 8.94 1.58 4.42 9.74 1.54 9.13 6.58 5.63 Person Per Household 2.410 2.685 2.174 2.141 2.527 2.612 2.473 2.856 2.272 2.682 2.988 2.639 3.199 2.522 2.651 2.911 2.520 2.576 2.985 Regional Totals 2,418,176 2,298,105 120,071 921,050 466,420 55,387 76,094 283,775 40,264 876,717 4.90 2.621 Source: Department of Finance i M v j L j L j mm mm mm b. Projected Housing In 1990, San Diego will have an estimated 880,000 households, which is projected to increase to 1.2 million households by July 1, 2010. Close to 200,000 residents will live in group quarters such as college dormitories, military barracks, homes for the aged, and prisons. Growth in multiple family units will average approximately 2.2 percent per year to the year 2000, exceeding the increase of 1.7 percent per year in single family units. The increase in housing units in certain areas will be more pronounced than in other areas within the region. During the forecast period, the Cities of Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, San Diego, San Marcos, and Santee will have the largest percentage increase in housing units. For a more detailed discussion of the need for housing units during the next five years, please refer to Chapter EQ. 57 Table 31 Projected Occupied Housing Units by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 - 2000 Jurisdiction 1989 1995 2000 Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total 25,358 47,007 7,560 2,383 33,110 20,112 39,459 8,869 22,781 8,190 15,062 43,911 13,414 408,462 12,610 17,695 5,752 23,723 121,259 31,800 50,251 8,151 2,380 34,087 21,448 42,265 9,277 23,484 8,741 15,341 50,456 14,461 438,040 15,399 19,951 5,909 26,159 140,423 35,576 54,027 8,539 2,429 35,037 22,685 45,891 9,729 24,462 9,292 15,532 56,748 15,295 476,981 18,164 22,503 6,113 27,947 164,056 876,717 958,023 1,051,006 Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast and January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates 58 c. Manufactured Homes Manufactured homes are self-contained structures constructed in factories to meet a nationwide federal standard. These units are then transported to a site and installed as a finished unit. Due to the potential cost advantage of mobile homes and factory built housing, state and federal housing policy have attempted to ease the regulatory, financing, and buyer attitude barriers to the wider use of these forms of affordable housing. To promote the use of manufactured housing as an affordable housing strategy, it is necessary for local governments to allow and encourage developers and home buyers to utilize it. •* Table 32 Manufactured Housing Parks ,. Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region - 1989 *"" San Diego County: M Total Manufactured Housing Parks 487 «• Corporated and Unincorporated Areas: Total Manufactured Housing Spaces 46,384 ^ Manufactured Housing Park Development (Since 1986) Spaces *» Incorporated Areas: Carlsbad 504 """ Oceanside 161 ^ Oceanside (Sphere) 105 San Diego: ,— Rancho Bernardo 108 San Marcos 169 - Vista 140 *"" Unincorporated Areas: am Alpine (2 developments) 333 222 <•» Bonsall (proposed) 160 Campo 282 Fallbrook 816 m Valley Center 615 Warner Springs 178 m Source: Based upon conversation with the California Manufactured Housing *• Institute 59 Mobile homes account for approximately 5 percent of the total housing stock, and as Table 31 indicates, mobile homes will remain relatively stable throughout the forecasted years. Mobile home parks represent an affordable source of housing. However, some parks may be operating on a conditional use permit in areas which may not have been zoned for permanent residential use. These parks may occupy valuable commercial or industrial sites that represent an economic incentive for higher intensity development. A permanent residential zoning designation would be the most effective method of ensuring long-term use. Table 33 Mobile Home Parks by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1986 Jurisdiction Acres Carlsbad 194 Chula Vista 394 Coronado - Del Mar El Cajon 150 Encinitas 74 Escondido 493 Imperial Beach 20 La Mesa 24 Lemon Grove 13 National City 37 Oceanside 357 Poway 99 San Diego (by CPA)* 545 San Marcos 304 Santee 269 Solana Beach 6 Vista 223 Unincorporated (by CPA)* 1,508 Regional Total 4,710 These figures represent the total of mobile home parks within that jurisdiction by community plan areas. Source: Final Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Land Use Inputs 60 m Oceanside Table 34 Existing/Projected Supply of Mobile Homes by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 Occupied Mobile Homes Jurisdiction 1989 1995 Carlsbad 995 752 Chula Vista 3,408 3,214 Coronado 0 0 Del Mar 34 33 El Cajon 1,831 1,867 Encinitas 665 695 Escondido 3,211 3,198 Imperial Beach 193 194 La Mesa 368 400 Lemon Grove 29 73 National City 233 240 Poway 765 807 San Diego 5,078 5,190 San Marcos 3,359 2,230 Santee 2,145 2,142 Solana Beach 37 80 Vista 1,438 1,569 Unincorporated 10,675 13,026 Regional Total 35,892 38,056 Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecasts, and January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates 61 d. Housing Costs (1) Owner The most overwhelming problem facing the San Diego Region is the cost affordability of housing. Based upon the Chamber Residential Market Price Index, the average price of a home in San Diego jumped 9.1 percent between May and November of 1988. In November 1988, the average price of a previously occupied single-family detached home in the County of San Diego was $179,500. Between November 1987 and November 1988, housing prices increased by 13.3 percent. During the latter half of 1988, housing increases had been substantial but were not expected to continue into 1989 at the same rate. An increasing demand, a limited supply and tax incentives for home ownership are major factors in housing price appreciation in the San Diego Region. Table 35 Cost of Resale Homes Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region July 1989 North County Coastal Median Carlsbad $243,000 Del Mar 430,000 Encinitas 267,500 Oceanside 147,000 Solana Beach 395,000 North County Inland Median Escondido $176,000 Poway 194,000 San Marcos 157,500 Vista 170,000 East County El Cajon La Mesa Lemon Grove Santee 159,000 165,000 131,500 139,000 South Bay Bonita Chula Vista Imperial Beach National City 299,000 164,500 131,000 115,000 San Diego*$90,000-590,000 Unincorporated* $125,000-1,395,000 *Ranges (low-high) reflect the median housing cost of resale homes by communities. Source: San Diego Union, August 27, 1989 - July Home Resales in San Diego County 62 Table 36 Median and Average Housing Prices Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 - 1989 Annual Apr., 1989 % Chg. last 6 mos. % Chg. last 12 mos. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Median Price Average Price $175,000 $204,700 90,000 104,500 106,000 103.400 111,500 118,500 123,500 133,300 $144,500 116,800 127,000 124,500 124,400 131,200 135,000 146,200 155,100 $172,000 % Chg. Avg. Price 14.0 24.4 12.5 8.7 -2.0 -0.1 5.5 2.9 8.3 6.1 10.9 % Chg. Adjusted for Inflation N/A N/A -2.3 -4.2 -8.2 -2.9 -0.4 -2.3 5.3 2.5 5.6 % Chg. in San Diego CPI N/A N/A 15.2 13.5 6.8 2.9 5.9 5.4 2.8 3.5 5.0 Source: Economic Research Bureau, Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce 63 Table 37 Average Home Price Regional Housing Needs Statement Selected Metropolitan Areas 1988 Rank Area United States 1 San Francisco Bay area 2 Boston area 3 New York City area 4 Washington, D.C. 5 Los Angeles area 6 San Diego 7 Atlanta 8 Philadelphia area 9 Baltimore 10 Minneapolis - St. Paul 11 Denver - Boulder 12 Seattle - Tacoma 13 Phoenix 14 Dallas - Fort Worth 15 Chicago - Gary 16 Houston 17 Kansas City 18 Salt Lake City 19 Miami - Ft. Lauderdale 20 Greensboro area 21 Columbus 22 Indianapolis 23 Detroit - Ann Arbor area 24 Portland 25 St. Louis 26 Cleveland area 27 Tampa Bay area Average Price $130,800 $198,500 $195,700 $193,000 $186,600 $186,000 $169,100 $142,100 $141,100 $138,100 $137,600 $131,000 $129,100 $126,800 $123,100 $122,000 $109,000 $108,200 $103,700 $103,400 $101,000 $ 99,600 $ 99,100 $ 97,000 $ 96,600 $ 96,500 $ 94,900 $ 94,500 Percent Change 88/87 7.3% 10.4% 5.2% 6.2% 17.1% 10.9% 8.2% 8.8% 24.5% - 1.1% - 1.1% - 6.2% 1.1% -4.3% -4.3% 4.9% 2.2% 2.3% -11.7% - 0.1% - 8.1% 7.4% 5.1% 6.7% -10.5% 6.2% 7.4% - 3.4% Source: Federal Home Loan Bank Board, U.S. Housing Markets, Lomas Mortgage USA 64 (2) Renter The 1980 Census showed an average rent of $290.00 for the San Diego County. A study by Park Weaver Realty reported an average rent of $609 on January 1, 1989. Median household income in 1989 was approximately $30,583, an increase of 79 percent from 1980's household income of $17,107. As the cost of homes increases, the demand for rental units will increase generating an increase in rents. As expected, the lower-income households are hardest hit by rising rents and a tight supply of available rental units. The future expiration of federal government subsidy contracts on existing low-income housing projects in California will add to the problem of rental housing. Currently, average monthly rents in San Diego County range from a high of $800 in Pacific Beach to a low of $510 in Ramona. Rent in San Diego takes 21.1 percent of median household income, the highest of the 25 metro areas. 65 Table 38 Average Rents Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 Community Average North County La Jolla $717 University City $721 Cardiff/Encinitas $707 Del Mar $736 Solana Beach $687 Carlsbad $651 La Costa $748 Oceanside $597 Vista $578 Bonsall $587 Escondido $566 Fallbrook $521 San Marcos $587 Carmel Mountain Ranch $699 Mira Mesa $605 Poway $582 Ramona $510 Rancho Bernardo $728 Rancho Penasquitos $670 Scripps Ranch $682 South County Pacific Beach $800 Point Loma/Coronado $698 Downtown San Diego $613 Clairemont $600 Linda Vista $580 Mission Valley $631 Tierrasanta $771 Golden Hill/Kensington/ Normal Heights $550 Hillcrest/Old Town/Mission Hills $559 East San Diego City $559 Alpine $530 Casa de Oro $540 El Cajon $517 Lakeside $557 La Mesa $560 Lemon Grove $590 Rancho San Diego $642 San Carlos/Grantville/Del Cerro $642 Santee $565 Spring Valley $538 Bonita $651 Chula Vista $543 Imperial Beach $577 National City $471 Palm/South San Diego $608 Paradise Hills/Southeast San Diego $548 San Ysidro $583 Total San Diego County $604 Source: Market Profiles - San Diego Union (Survey of 94,231 apartments in 766 complexes of 25 units or more in 48 communities.) 66 e. Tenure Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Region Total In 1980, there were 670,094 occupied housing units, over half of the units (55.1%) were owner occupied units. Ownership rates are important because they are directly related to housing types and turnover rates. The rates of ownership within the region varied from 77.4% (Poway) to 33.3% (Imperial Beach); other cities had high owner percentages: Carlsbad (63.8%), Chula Vista (58.2%), Encinitas (55.9%), Lemon Grove (64.1%), Oceanside (55.4%), San Marcos (76.0%), Santee (74.7%), Solana Beach (60.2%), and Vista (58.6%). Based on the same information, several cities experienced high renter percentages: Coronado (55.7%), Del Mar (54.0%), El Cajon (56.6%), Imperial Beach (66.7%), National City (64.1%), and San Diego (50.9%). Table 39 Tenure by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Occupied Housing Units Owner Percent Renter's Percent Total 8,664 17,706 3,021 1,037 12,353 2,399 13,669 2,589 11,402 4,664 5,130 16,066 7,780 157,595 4,744 11,628 3,050 8,021 77,729 369,247 Percent 63.8 58.2 44.3 46.0 43.4 55.9 54.6 33.3 52.9 64.1 35.9 55.4 77.4 49.1 76.0 74.7 60.2 58.6 38.2 55.1 Renter's 4,922 12,692 3,802 1,216 16,111 1,890 11,377 5,178 10,161 2,612 9,160 12,956 2,269 163,465 1,498 3,941 2,016 5,669 29,912 300,847 Percent 36.2 41.8 55.7 54.0 56.6 44.1 45.4 66.7 47.1 35.9 64.1 44.6 22.6 50.9 24.0 25.3 39.8 41.4 44.9 44.9 13,586 30,398 6,823 2,253 28,464 4,289 25,046 7,767 21,563 7,276 14,290 29,022 10,049 321,060 6,242 15,569 5,066 13,690 107,641 670,094 These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Report 67 f. Condition The condition of the housing stock in the region is a result of a composite of factors including: age of housing stock, extent of overcrowding, and availability of certain facilities age (e.g., complete plumbing for exclusive use). These factors would help explain the low level of deterioration/substandard housing found in the region. Substandard units, as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, refers to those units which fail to meet the Section 8 Existing Housing Quality Standards. The extent of deterioration can be estimated by the correlation of certain census data to the incidence of substandardness: (1) lack complete plumbing facilities, which means the units contain (a) complete plumbing facilities that are shared with another household, (b) some, but not all, plumbing facilities, or (c) no plumbing facilities; (2) occupied housing units with more than 1.01 persons per room were considered substandard; and (3) owner-occupied units built before 1940 with a value less than $35,000. A specific unit can only be determined to be substandard by direct evaluation for its compliance with certain pre-determined standards of condition (surveys/ inspections). These units would need to be evaluated to determine which substandard units are considered suitable for rehabilitation if they can meet certain criteria which would include structural soundness and economic feasibility. The following table identifies one of the most commonly used factors to indicate the potential for substandard housing in communities (availability of plumbing). However, it must be noted that the number of substandard units would be substantially higher and this data would only provide some 'comparative indication of the extent of substandard units by city. In 1980, the Cities of Chula Vista, El Cajon, Escondido, National City, Oceanside, San Diego and the unincorporated area had a significant number of persons living in units lacking complete plumbing facilities. 68 I I II I i ii li li li II li II li ii ti ii ii ii Table 40 Units Needing Rehabilitation by Jurisdiction (Tenure and Occupancy Status by Plumbing Facilities) Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Units Lacking Complete Plumbing Facilities Units With Complete Plumbing for Exclusive Use Total Units 15,237 31,671 8,075 2,422 29,886 4,531 26,956 8,105 22,458 7,507 14,468 32,384 10,410 336,376 6,484 16,130 5,740 14,812 116,181 Occupied Units 13,534 30,226 6,755 2,232 28,283 4,261 24,895 7,715 21,448 7,234 14,018 28,807 10,035 316,350 6,231 15,538 5,047 13,583 106,764 Renters Occupied Units 4,879 12,557 3,769 1,197 15,957 1,869 11,254 5,135 10,067 2,589 8,911 12,772 2,259 159,169 1,490 3,919 2,001 5,588 29,389 Units Lacking Complete Plumbing for Exclusive Use Renters Total Occupied Occupied Units Units Units 14,393 709,833 662,956 294,771 8,073 52 172 68 21 181 28 151 52 115 42 272 215 14 4,710 11 31 19 107 877 7,138 43 135 33 19 154 21 123 43 94 23 249 184 10 4,296 8 22 15 81 523 6,076 These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: Compiled from 1980 Census Summary Report g. Age The age of housing is an important characteristic of supply because it is an indicator of the conditions of housing. Many federal and state programs use age of housing as one factor to determine housing needs and the availability of funds for housing and/or community development. For those purposes, the most significant measure of the age of housing is the number or percentage of units built before 1940. Regionwide, 7.0% of the total housing stock was constructed prior to 1940. Most of the housing stock in the San Diego Region has been recently constructed. Regionwide, 71.1% of the total housing stock was built from 1970 to 1989 and 86.3% from 1950 to 1989. Several jurisdictions within the San Diego Region have experienced dramatic increases in their housing stock in the last twenty years as a result of the region's growth. The portion of recently constructed housing is substantial: Carlsbbad (90.6%), Chula Vista (72.9%), Coronado (51.9%), Del Mar (54.2%), El Cajon (74.7%), Encinitas (78.2%), Escondido (85.6%), Imperial Beach (64.2%), La Mesa (57.4%), Lemon Grove (48.4%), National City (53.5%), Oceanside (84.6%), Poway (92.2%), San Diego (64.5%), San Marcos (94.9%), Santee (86.7%), Solana Beach (80.8%), Vista (83.1%), Unincorporated (65.7%). 70 Table 41 Year Housing Built by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Number of Units Built Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos Santee* Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total 63,567 Before 1940 1940- 1949 1950- 1959 1960- 1969 1970- 1979 1980- 1988 61,241 1,432 2,860 9,863 10,857 7,232 9,992 10,301 7,952 1,423 984 2,775 800 795 510 724 173 6,644 8,566 12,479 4,920 807 914 2,134 2,066 3,710 7,671 13,315 12,984 2,333 2,293 2,342 1,619 6,219 5,321 6,786 1,189 2,819 1,601 1,333 1,303 3,363 4,024 3,495 682 3,907 7,173 17,554 15,497 909 2,492 6,841 2,846 72,414 77,111 108,946 86,410 329 815 5,050 4,167 2,175 3,975 9,314 3,936 672 958 3,572 454 2,777 4,018 6,526 9,996 18,966 26,091 56,430 32,426 138,926 167,369 279,780 200,277 These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Report, San Diego County Building Report, January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates 71 3. Supply/Demand Indicators a. Overcrowding The combination of low income and high housing costs has forced many households to live in overcrowded housing conditions. The term "overcrowded" is applied to units with 1.01 or more persons per room. Identifying the extent of overcrowding problems can serve as a warning sign that a community does not have an adequate supply of affordable housing and/or housing units for large families. Table 42 Overcrowded Housing Units by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1980 Overcrowded Housing Units Hi Jurisdiction (1.01+ Persons per room) ^ Carlsbad 416 mChula Vista 1,763 Coronado 150 ** Del Mar 62 El Cajon 1,197 » Encinitas* 183 «• Escondido 1,174 Imperial Beach 802 pp La Mesa 430 ^ Lemon Grove 350 National City 2,509 Oceanside 1,884 *i Poway* 273 W San Diego 19,072 San Marcos 230 •» Santee* 471 ^ Solana Beach* 167 Vista 729 M Unincorporated 5,192 Mf Regional Total 37,054 M| These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at «* the time of 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Reports 72 •f Ml b. Affordability (Overpayers) The dynamics of demand and supply can be indicated by measuring the portion of a household's income that is spent for housing. This measurement is often expressed in terms of overpayers - households paying an excessive amount of income for housing. This indicator is an important measurement of local housing market conditions because it not only reflects the affordability of housing in the community but it is also a standard that federal and state agencies use to determine the extent and level of funding and support from housing and community development programs that should be allocated. State law defines affordable housing costs for lower income households as 25% of household income. This standard is often used in local housing elements in measuring housing affordability problems. Table 43 Housing Costs as Percent of Income by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego 1980 Households Paying More Than 25% of Income for Housing Costs Jurisdiction Renters Owners Carlsbad 1,980 529 Chula Vista 6,193 1,248 Coronado 1,569 214 Del Mar 540 53 El Cajon 8,395 1,007 Encinitas* 782 266 Escondido 5,947 1,283 Imperial Beach 2,763 305 La Mesa 5,094 1,012 Lemon Grove 1,173 525 National City 4,669 580 Oceanside 6,831 1,798 Poway* 880 545 San Diego 79,317 14,777 San Marcos 402 345 Santee* 1,673 870 Solana Beach* 880 193 Vista 2,922 912 Unincorporated 12,604 6,676 Regional Total 144,614 33,138 These cities were Census Designated Places and unincorporated at the time of the 1980 Census. Source: 1980 Census Summary Reports 73 A recent study by Lomas Mortgage revealed that the San Diego Region remains as one of the least affordable markets for home buyers and renters. According to Lomas, affordability is measured by the percentage of average household income consumed by a mortgage based upon the average price of homes. (1) Owner In 1988, the average monthly mortgage payment in the San Diego Region was 33.4 percent of average household income. The San Diego Region placed 23rd out of 27 metropolitan areas that had incomes high enough to qualify for an average priced house. The Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) reported that the average price of all home mortgages closed in the region was $169,100. The San Francisco Bay area ranked first, with the highest average of $198,500. The nation's average price of a home was $130,800. The Region's average monthly mortgage payment of $1,258.00 was slightly higher than the nation's average monthly mortgage payment of $1,003, and slightly lower than New York's average monthly payment of $1,640.00. Unfortunately, the San Diego Region's household income has been unable to keep up with the increase of housing prices. Approximately 23.8 percent of the region's households had qualifying incomes that allowed the purchase of an average priced, conventionally financed home. A 20 percent downpayment for an average home in the region was $33,820, in comparison to the nation's average of $26,100. 74 Table 44 Housing Market Affordability Regional Housing Needs Statement Selected Metropolitan Areas 1988 Least Affordable 1 New York City area 2 San Diego 3 Los Angeles area 4 Boston area 5 San Francisco Bay area 6 Washington, B.C. 7 Philadelphia area 8 Atlanta 9 Baltimore 10 Seattle - Tacoma Monthly Payment Percent of Income 35.5% 33.4% 33.2% 31.9% 31.3% 28.8% 28.4% 27.8% 27.3% 26.8% Most Affordable 1 St. Louis 2 Cleveland area 3 Miami - Ft. Lauderdale 4 Tampa Bay area 5 Kansas City 6 Indianapolis 7 Portland 8 Greensboro area 9 Detroit - Ann Arbor area 10 Salt Lake City Monthly Payment Percent of Income 18.2% 20.4% 20.7% 21.6% 22.2% 22.6% 23.0% 23.0% 23.2% 23.5% U.S. Average 28.2% Source: U.S. Housing Markets, Lomas Mortgage USA 75 Table 45 Housing Affordability Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 P to Average household income 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 36,600 38,800 40,700 43,200 $45,200 NEW HOMES Home price Monthly payment As % of income EXISTING HOMES Home price Monthly payment As % of income $128,200 $1180.42 38.7% $120,900 $1112.37 36.4% 149,600 1358.89 42.0% 139,800 1207.78 37.4% 157,600 1279.70 37.7% 143,900 1159.73 34.2% 162,900 1236.20 34.3% 151,900 1121.43 31.1% 180,100 1342.43 35.7% 164,100 1220.11 32.4% Monthly payment (average all homes) Qualifying income (average all homes) Households qualifying CPI rent index (1982-84 = 100) Percent change in past year Source: U.S. Housing Markets - San Diego Union $1147.39 $41,300 264,400 108.9 9.4% 1285.89 55,100 106,200 120.7 10.8% 1222.43 52,400 152,500 129.9 7.6% 1168.35 50,100 217,500 134.9 3.8% 1258.24 53,900 210,000 138.4 2.6% *T» w» 19 Ik 1 •» a 76 Mi m (2) Renter San Diego ties Boston as the least-affordable of 25 metro-areas in rent affordability. Rent affordability is described as annual rent cost as a percentage of median-family income. Table 46 Rent Affordability Regional Housing Needs Statement Metropolitan Areas 1989 Rent Affordability Median Monthly City/Rank Rent 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. U.S. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Houston Cincinnati Cleveland Detroit Pittsburgh Dallas-Fort Worth Milwaukee Chicago Seattle Denver Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis Buffalo Baltimore Portland Washington, D.C. Atlanta AVERAGE Philadelphia Miami New York San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego Boston $348 $321 $383 $399 $355 $384 $426 $437 $418 $418 $396 $460 $409 $362 $432 $374 $597 $477 $424 $481 $421 $440 $584 $522 $518 $573 Median (annual rent as Household a percent of median Income household income) $31,965 $28,547 $32,943 $34,111 $29,616 $31,656 $34,294 $35,015 $32,876 $32,815 $30,040 $34,759 $30,120 $26,423 $31,475 $27,171 $39,101 $31,223 $27,440 $30,565 $25,871 $26,704 $35,159 $30,150 $29,519 $32,536 13.1% 13.5% 13.9% 14.0% 14.4% 14.6% 14.9% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.8% 15.9% 16.3% 16.4% 16.5% 16.5% 18.3% 18.3% 18.6% 18.9% 19.5% 19.8% 19.9% 20.8% 21.1% 21.1% Source: Sound Advice - San Diego Union 77 (3) Cost of Living Based upon a San Diego Economic Bulletin report, the region's Housing Index figure of 180.7 is the main reason for the area's high ranking in living costs. The housing index is based upon two factors: rent for a two-bedroom apartment; and an average monthly mortgage payment on a new 1800 sq. ft. home. Table 47 .1 Rank Urban Area. State 1 Boston, MA 2 New York, NY2 3 San Francisco, CA 4 Philadelphia, PA 5 Washington, D.C. 6 Los Angeles, CA 7 San Diego, CA 8 Atlanta, GA 9 Miami, FL 10 Denver, CO 11 Seattle, WA 12 Dallas, TX 13 Milwaukee, WI 14 Phoenix, AZ 15 Baltimore, MD 16 St. Paul, MN 17 Cleveland, OH 18 Houston, TX 19 Portland, OR 20 St. Louis, MO 21 Indianapolis, IN 22 Salt Lake City, UT 23 New Orleans, LA 24 Kansas City, MO - KSZ 25 Oklahoma City, OK Average 25 Cities Cost of Living Index' Regional Housing Needs Statement Selected Major Urban Areas Third Quarter 1988 Composite Index 164.1 154.5 144.7 127.7 127.2 123.9 123.0 109.0 108.6 105.3 105.2 104.6 104.1 104.1 104.0 103.7 102.5 102.0 101.6 99.1 99.0 97.3 95.7 95.2 94.0 112.0 Grocery Items 110.8 111.1 107.2 110.1 107.5 101.8 104.6 100.9 99.3 90.6 111.1 105.8 99.5 101.4 104.6 106.2 101.5 109.5 97.4 99.5 97.1 96.0 94.3 102.9 98.4 102.8 Housing 325.5 249.9 246.3 142.0 168.0 185.8 180.7 115.5 113.21 126.4 108.6 101.8 115.0 103.8 113.0 105.0 101.7 82.0 102.0 95.6 98.2 89.6 92.6 92.7 80.0 133.4 Utilities 130.8 189.3 73.8 171.3 111.8 74.3 79.2 117.3 132.4 90.7 62.8 111.4 109.8 91.1 104.1 105.6 92.6 117.6 71.5 108.4 98.4 93.9 118.3 94.5 95.8 105.9 Trans- portation 105.1 108.0 132.9 107.7 118.3 105.5 128.7 102.0 103.7 106.9 110.1 112.2 104.6 103.6 104.3 108.4 107.7 112.2 107.4 98.4 106.1 102.5 93.6 92.7 89.4 106.9 Health Care 142.6 140.0 164.0 138.1 131.6 125.5 120.4 120.1 108.1 116.8 120.0 107.0 105.7 121.4 111.1 110.7 109.6 103.3 131.0 99.8 101.0 103.3 93.9 90.5 96.1 116.5 Misc. Goods and Services 118.8 120.0 117.9 117.4 117.1 116.7 105.1 106.2 104.1 100.1 109.4 99.6 96.2 106.7 95.1 97.0 103.2 102.1 105.2 98.2 97.4 101.4 91.7 95.1 102.4 105.0 1U.S. Average equals 100.0LData is for Second Quarter, 1988 Source: American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association 78 c. Vacancy Rates The balance between supply and demand in a housing market is another indicator of market dynamics. One of the characteristics that is most often used to measure this balance is vacancy rates. High vacancy rates usually indicate low demand and/or high supply conditions in the housing market. Conversely, low vacancy rates usually indicate high demand and/or low supply conditions in the housing market. However, vacancy rates are not the sole indicator of market conditions. They must be viewed in the context of all the characteristics of the local and regional market. Several sources exist that monitor vacancy rates: California Department of Finance, Census Bureau, Park Weaver Realty, and the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco.* The vacancy rates determined by the U.S. Census Bureau, and the California Department of Finance are census driven. The Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) sponsors annual vacancy surveys of the cities in the region. The survey relies on reports of postal carriers. The FHLBB vacancy data is not comparable to the U.S. Census data because the surveys use different methodologies. The region experienced low vacancy rates from 1974 to 1984. The increase in vacancy rates after 1984 were attributed to 1981 tax incentives that resulted in the construction of rental properties. The increase in new units caused the vacancy rate for multi-family units to rise to a high 8.9 percent in 1987. As of January 1, 1989, the vacancy rate for all units in the region fell to 4.8 percent. Based on the Department of Finance's survey of 33,399 units, a total of 1,812 vacancies (5.4%) was reported for Fall 1989. The FHLBB reported a vacancy rate of 3.2 percent for October 1988 for all units. The FHLBB survey found 7,982 vacant single-family detached units, a vacany rate of 1.8 percent. Single-family attached units accounted for a vacancy rate of 3.7 percent and multi-family units had a vacancy rate of 5.1 percent. *The Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) of San Francisco was abolished by the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989. It was replaced by the Office of Thrift Supervision (Department of the Treasury). 79 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach* Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Table 48 Vacancies by Jurisdiction. Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1985 & 1989 Total Housing Units 1985 Total Vacant Units 1985 Percent Vacant 1985 Total Housing Units 1989 Total Vacant Units 1989 Percent Vacant 1989 18,536 33,544 8,667 2,598 32,001 964 921 1,485 281 1,201 30,292 8,649 23,373 7,890 14,859 37,277 11,575 373,665 7,900 17,147 1,135 456 755 292 284 2,781 342 19,193 670 632 17,291 141,594 1,114 11,394 786,858 43,900 5.2 2.7 17.1 10.8 3.8 3.7 5.3 3.2 3.7 1.9 7.5 3.0 5.1 8.5 3.7 6.4 8.0 5.6 26,492 48,691 9,152 2,648 34,508 20,925 40,817 9,647 23,791 8,634 15,272 48,223 13,629 426,451 13,971 17,973 6,330 25,394 128,504 1,134 1,684 1,592 265 1,398 813 1,356 778 1,010 444 210 4,312 215 17,989 1,361 278 578 1,671 7.245 921,052 44,333 4.3 3.5 17.4 10.0 4.1 3.9 3.3 8.1 4.3 5.1 1.4 8.9 1.6 4.4 9.7 1.5 9.1 6.6 5.6 4.8 *Encinitas and Solana Beach were incorporated in 1985. Their 1985 data are included in Unincorporated. Source: Department of Finance - Population and Housing Estimates Jan. 1, 1985 & Jan. 1, 1989 80 4. Constraints a. Governmental Governmental constraints include: land use controls/ growth management, building codes, processing fees, and site improvement costs. These constraints must be identified in the housing element. In addition, the jurisdictions must identify the steps that they will take to remove such constraints to the extent possible (as those constraints impact the cost of housing). (1) Growth Management In response to the growth related issues, a number of cities have adopted a variety of policies and approaches, that may include residential building permit caps that can affect housing affordability. Requirements of various growth management plans range from housing building permit limits to infrastructure improvements. See Table 49 for a jurisdiction by jurisdiction description. (2) Building Codes All jurisdictions within the San Diego Region have adopted and enforce the Uniform Building Code which ensures that all housing units are built to specified standards. The code is determined by the International Conference of Building Officials and the State of California. (3) Processing Fees Many jurisdictions in the post-Proposition 13 era, have sought to recover local planning and processing costs through a fee structure. Table 50 illustrates the range of fees in the region based on a survey by the Building Industry Association. 81 City Carlsbad Chula Vista Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Table 49 Growth Management Activities By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1989 Limits number of residential units for each quadrant of City and reduces units/acre for each housing type; divides City into 25 management zones, with facility standards and public service requirements which must be in place at time of new development; additional 15% open space requirements. The ordinance was the result of a City Council sponsored ballot initiative effective November 1987. Since implementation, of the 25 zones, seven local plans have been adopted, one sponsored by the private sector, the remainder by the City, basically for infill areas. Interim Moratorim on General Plan Amendments and Tentative 'Maps east of 1-805 (exempting Otay Rio Business Park) expired December 1987; development scenarios for Eastern Territories currently being evaluated; consultant to be retained to prepare growth management program, facilities financing/phasing, tracking system, completion targeted for late 1988; thresholds and levels of service standards developed by Consortium (citizens/developers group) adopted by Council; completion of General Plan update anticipated in late 1988. Requires specific plan and popular vote for commercial development in central commercial area on lots of 25,000 square feet or more, 11,500 or more square feet of floor area. Temporary prohibition on accepting, processing or approving multi- family dwelling units, reclassifications to multi-family uses; exempts low-income in process prior to January 1, 1986; expires January 1988. Council reviewing policy to consider projects at the lowest density range under the multi-family designation, with bonuses for low and moderate income projects. General Plan update anticipated in Spring, 1988. The City's General Plan, adopted March 29, 1989, includes an annual residential building limitation along with growth management policies and guidelines. The building limitation is based on the unbuilt development potential of the City at mid- range density divided by the remaining years of the 25 year built- out period (January 1989 - January 2014). The limit includes a number of permits that are set aside for low and moderate income units and units for senior citizens. Unallocated units from any year are added back to the total remaining permits before the next year's annual allocation is calculated. 82 City Encinitas (Continued) Escondido Oceanside Poway San Diego Table 49 (Contd) Growth Management Activities By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1989 General Plan policies require that the City develop a system which gives preference to proposed projects which meet or exceed the goals and policies of the Element. City staff has developed an interim interpretation of the guidelines while issuing an RFP for a consultant to develop a growth management ordinance. Those proposals are currently being reviewed. Residential limitations, restricting rezoning to next higher level of density; 4-year restriction on requests for second density increase and on amending prezoned annexed land approved after effective date of Ordinance (8/1/87); prohibits incompatible zoning; open space requirements. Draft EIR on General Plan update/revision, incorporating these provisions, tentatively scheduled for hearing in late Spring 1988. Residential limitations, reducing projected population from 350,000 to 173,000-225,000 at buildout; limits residential to 800 permits/year from 1988-1999, minor exemptions; establishes allocation board, point/criteria system based on infrastructure, design, etc. Litigation for damages in the amount of approximately $100 million has been filed to overturn this ordinance which was the result of a citizen-sponsored ballot initiative and became effective May 1987. Of the 1,000 units available for allotment in 1987, 1,096 were awarded to 29 projects out of 43; mix of residential types. 1988 allotment hearings scheduled for February - 30 projects applied for. 704 allotments available for allocation (reduced by 96 overage in 1987); applicants have two years to pull building permits. The City is currently updating its Circulation and Community Facilities Element. Moratorium on sewer availability imposed in early 1987 has been lifted and residential capacity was exhausted 9/89. A moratorium was reinstated 10/89. In May, 1989, the Interim Development Ordinance (IDO) was phased out after being in effect for 18 months. The IDO had imposed an over City cap of 8,000 building permits/year with several exemptions. 83 Table 49 (Contd) Growth Management Activities By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1989 San Diego The Resource Protection Ordinance (RPO) was adopted in February, (Continued) 1989 as an outgrowth of the sensitive lands provisions included in Proposition H which was one of four growth management propositions which were defeated at the polls in November, 1988. RPO regulates development on hillsides, floodplains, wetlands, biologically sensitive lands, and significant prehistoric and historc sites and resources. RPO is applicable to both discretionary and ministerial projects, although there are exemptions for certain types of projects and in certain geographic areas. The Single Family Preservation Ordinance was initially adopted in August, 1988 then was extended to August, 1990. It is intended to preserve the character of neighborhoods which are predominately single-family but are zoned for multi-family or nonresidential development. It is an interim measure until the appropriate community plans and zoning can be amended to permanently preserve these neighborhodds. A Mobility Planning program was adopted in July, 1989 to promote the use of Transportation Demand Management (TDM). A companion Performance Program ordinance was also adopted which requires employees and building owners to prepare TDM plans so that employees and building tenants can choose from a variety of TDM options. Other growth management related actions taken this year include: (1) A program to bring zoning conformance with the City's adopted community plans. As of August, 1989, 26 communities, had been completed. (2) A new Council policy was adopted to encourage construction of public facilities by private developers. The City has requested that SANDAG perform quarterly audits of the impacts of the IDO, commencing with the third quarter, 1987. The data for the first reporting period will be available in January 1988, and the first report will be transmitted to the City in February. In addition, the City has contracted with the Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Berkeley, for a socioeconomic analysis of proposed growth management options developed by the CAC and City staff. City staff is performing a parallel environmental analysis of the proposed options. Completion of these reports is anticipated in the Spring, 1988. San Marcos Moratorium on multi-family residential, minor exemptions; in effect until early 1988, scheduled for public hearing 2/9/88; task force to study and make recommendations. Study still underway, concurrent with General Plan update. 84 Table 49 (Contd) Growth Management Activities By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1989 Solana Beach Vista County of San Diego Moratorium on new subdivision development, rezones; exemptions including single family and duplexes, some approved Master/ Specific Plans, until completion of General Plan, Ordinances, anticipated in mid 1988. Residential limitation of 500 permits/year, some minor exemptions; mandates voter approval of all General Plan Amendments which increase population (no requests for such GPA's have been filed to date); no residential development without adequate facilities/ services; specifies adoption of Community Facilities Element, design review guidelines within nine months (both scheduled for hearing in late spring); in effect until December 1999. Ordinance was the result of a City Council sponsored ballot initiative in March 1987. Approximately 500 permits were granted in 1987. In late 1986, the County Board of Supervisors commenced work on the joint growth management project and appointed a task force to evaluate the County's growth management plans and policies. Since that time, the Board of Supervisors has taken the following actions relative to growth management: (1) adopted an interim prohibition on General Plan Amendments, Specific Plans and Zone Reclassifications; (2) enacted a community design review program related to quality of life and community character for some communities and is preparing guidelines for others; (3) revised residential clustering policies and ordinances; (4) adopted an ordinance allowing use of development agreements if a clear public benefit can be demonstrated; (5) coordinated planning in the Route 78 Corridor to ensure compatability with adjacent cities; (6) established an interjurisdictional task force for United Enterprise's 24,000 acres in the South Bay; (7) increased park fees and adopted fire mitigation fees to ensure adequacy to serve new development; (8) adopted Policy 1-107, limiting development for projects requiring sewer service from Rancho San Diego interceptor to projects within the urban limit line; (9) established a historic site review board; (10) restricted development in the East Otay Mesa area until adequate facilities and funding are guaranteed; and (11) adopted an urgency ordinance on indiscriminate grading and clearing, directing staff to return within six months with permanent regulations. These regulations will apply a sensitive resource protection designator and strengthen grading, zoning and subdivision ordinances. Source: SANDAG Agenda Report R-4 (Jan. 1988) 85 Table 50 OO Regional Development Fees by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 SUBDIVISION PLANNING FEES Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos San tee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Prototype Home: General Plan Parcel Parcel Map: Map: Amendment Tentative Final $ 765f Z.OOOd l.OOOf N/A ZSOf 950d 600f SSOf 470f 300f + l.OOOd 400f 4,700f l.OOOf Up to ZS.OOOd 500-1, 000 f l.OOOf N/A 1,3 lOf l,300f 3-bdrm, 2-bth $ 400f $ 400f 2, SOOd 0 700f 300f 595 t 120f 120/LOT f per LOT 200 + $ Z/ Lot f -0 700d 700d 300/sheet 4ZOf+$ZO/LOT f SSOd 400d 356+$Z5 /Lot f Z60f 400ft 600d l.OOOf 300f N/A 100+ 400+ $10/LOT f 35/LOT f l.OOOf SOOf per sheet 3,500d 3,500d 300f lOOf 900 + 100/LOT f 700f 550 + N/A 20/lot f 536f N/A l,200f l,000d detached single-family Planned Development $ 255f l.OOOd N/A N/A lOOf 3,300d 600f 0 470 + $10/LOT f 1 00-400 f 400f N/A N/A 2,600d Rezone $ 655f l.OOOd l.OOOf N/A 100ft $1/LOT l.SOOd 600f SOOd 6Z5f 300+ $ 8/acre SSOf 1,100 to Z,200f l,600f 2,900d ZOOf 500-1, OOOf N/A l.SOOf 140f Z.OOOd home (1,500 sq. 1,550 f N/A 700f Z,300f ft.) with Site Plan Design Review (Permit Review Stage) $ N/A 100,150 or ZSOf N/A N/A 0 l.ZOOd 175f 300d 220f N/A lOOf N/A N/A 0 ZOf N/A SOOf 57Zf SOOf a 400 sq. $ N/A SOOf N/A ISOf 40f SOOd 4ZOf 150d N/A N/A lOOf N/A Z25f ZOOf ZOOf .00075 to .003 of BP value + 450f N/A N/A SOOf ft. garage and Conditional Use Permit $ 4ZOf 750d SOOf 715f SOf l,700d N/A 650d 315f ZSOf 400f 600f l,600f Z.SOOd 3 SOf .00075 to .003 of BP Value + l,130f l.SOOf 700f Z.OOOd a Z40 sq. ft. ENVIRONMENTAL Initial Study $ 175f 400d ZSOf 295f SOf 400d 230f ISOf 190f IZSf lOOf SOOf lOOf l,300d SOOf 300f+ 108% of bid cost 185f l.OOOd Fvn EIR $ 700d Z.SOOd l.OOOf 595t lOOf Cost of bid + Z5% 105% of bid + $910f SSOd Bid cost +415f l,750d SSOf 3,400f Scost of bid + 20% N/A 115% of bid + $100 f 1,250-2,500 120% of bid 108% of bid cost 110% of bid + 915f S.OOOd Application fee/deposit for a 10 acre project (50 parcels/units - $750,000 total improve- ment valve-200,000 cubic yards grading) Tentative Map $ 765f Z.OOOd l.SOOf l,780f 300f Z.OOOd 845f SOOf 970f $865f +2.450D SOOf Z.SOOf 1,650 not provided Z.lOOf 900 + 110/lOt f N/A 780f 3,000d Final Map $ 3Z5f S.OOOd 400f l,780f SOOf 3, SOOd $300/sheet + $l,000f 600f 3,OZ5f 5,000-6,0000 3% of public and Grading improvements Z.lSOf 1,000 per sheet 5, SOOd 650f 700 + 20/LOT f 1,7 SOf 39Zf 5, SOOd covered patio. Type V wood frame construction throughout. 100 A single phase electrical, 100,000 BTU, FAU gas service, and a common set of fixtures. Key; F: Fee, D: Deposit, N/A: Not Applicable SoJfe^Conitalionli«^y F fei J^evefciitUnt I I t I ff I I I • 1 I 1 f I I I II f 1 II Table 50 (Contd) Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Development Fees by JurisdictionRe8ional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Public Facilities Residential Non-Residential 3.5% of Building Permit Valuation SPD: $425+$25 P/bdrm MFD: 225+25 P/bdrm Residential Construction Tax Traffic Mitigation Listed as Total Fee Per SFD - Divide by 10 To Get Fee Per ADT - By 12 ADTs for Santee $600 - Area 1 670 - Area 2 530 B&T Area 800 - Area 1 1450 - Area 2 2101 -East of 1-805 Sewer/Water Capacity Fee Per EDU Sewer Water 1250 -2400 600 850 1590 2961 300- 5100 $1,136 P/Dwelling unit $.59 P/Sq.Ft. Non-Residential 900 1930 Oceanside Poway *San Diego (Please see Table 52) $503 P/Dwelling unit 1570 660 - Area 1 990 - Area 2 2% of building permit valuation, housing & non-residential $142 P/unit: 938 Acre Co mm. 502 Acre Indus t 2052 1200 2260 3960 170 600 1565 2356- 3356 1483 2400 185 2000 3000 1700 2000 1700- 3095 2228 0 0 1095 300- 500 565 1900 490 390 225 Pbd Fire Mitigation Imposed By Fire Protection Districts Park Lands P/SF Detached Home $786 - Areas 1-3 983 - Area 4 40« sq.ft-Indust 1,680 5, 10, or 15« per sq. ft. Housing & Non-Residential 300 1686 - CAB 1 1840 - CAB 2 2000 - CAB 3 2321 - CAB 4 1526 - CAB 5 1,731 1,100 275 145 - 200 185 956 1,910 $258 P/single family unit 10.3t sq.ft.-comm 15.45t-sq.ft.-Indust 5,113 or 16tP/sq. ft. housing & non-residential $61 P/Sq.Ft. unit 405 P/non-res. acre 5,11 or 16C per sq. ft. housing & non-residential 3,258 600 1230 400 East 800 Middle 1000 Coast Drainage Fee Levels Range Widely Because Drainage Facility Needs Vary By Location 10-Areas $200 - 4445 P/Gross Areas Avg. Fee: $2363 $.21 P/Sq.Ft. of new impervious surface area Fees up to $8636 P/Gross Acre - Depending on location 9 - Areas w/fee range of $1406 - 8903 per gross Acre - Avg. fee: $4190 $900-1570 P/Acre depending on location $46,000 P/Acre, 100-yr floodplain only 9 - drainage basins w/fees from $1151-3725 P/acre Keyj Pbd: Provided by District; ADT: Average Daily Trip; EDU: Equivalent Dwelling Unit; MFD: Multiple-family Dwelling; SFD; Single-family Dwelling (4) Article 34 In 1950, the voters of California added Article 34 to the State Constitution which requires that low rent housing projects "developed, constructed, or acquired in any manner" by any state public agency receive voter approval. Application of the Article 34 referendum is conditioned upon the existence of a particular actor ("any state public body") a particular action ("develop, construct, or acquire"), and a particular object ("low rent housing project for persons of low income"). All three conditions must be met for a development to be subject to the referendum requirement; if any one of the conditions is met, no referendum is required. Status Report - Article 34 Referenda (1978 - June 1988) Jurisdiction San Diego Carlsbad Chula Vista Imperial Beach La Mesa National City Oceanside San Diego (City) Vista Election Date 1978 1980 1978 1980 1978 1980 1980 1981 1980 Number and Type of Units 1000 E/F 250 E/LI 400 E/H/F Unspec., E/H 200 E/H 50F No more than 2% 2500 E/F Up to 95 per year Grant of Authority NA NA Open HA/PA Open HA/PA HA/PA Open HA/PA Units Remaining 1000 NA 317 NA 72 NA Approx. 600 3768 NA E: Elderly F: Family H: Handicapped PA: Public Agency NA: Not Available Open: Any private or public entity may develop the housing HA: Housing Authority 88 b. Non-Governmental Non-governmental proximity to natural/man made amenities are important considerations. Coastal land values are substantially higher than most comparable inland parcels. Constraints refer to land, construction and financing costs that influence residential activity. (1) Land Residential land prices contribute significantly to the cost of new housing. Raw land and improvement costs comprise approximately 24 percent of the total development costs of a residential dwelling. Land prices in the San Diego Region have risen significantly in recent years. Land values vary from community to community as well as within the community. Existing & proposed land use and zoning impact land costs. (2) Construction Basic construction costs for residential developments have increased rapidly. Construction costs together with land prices have pushed up the cost of housing greatly, making home ownership unattainable for many households. These costs are relatively constant over the region. The basic components of labor and material do not fluctuate by area. Site preparation costs can be substantial but the variations are a function of the site, not jurisdictional. (3) Financing The cost of borrowing money for the planning and construction of a development is a major component of the cost of housing. In fact, financing is the largest component of housing cost when both construction and long-term financing are considered. Many buyers and renters are not fully aware of financing costs as a component of housing costs. More familiar to potential buyers are the financing costs associated with a home mortgage. Interest rates become an important ingredient in determining the affordability of for sale housing. As interests rates rise, significant portions of households fail to qualify for housing. 89 mi Table 51 Mortgage Interest Rates Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region June 1989 III FIXED RATE FIRSTS Lender Int. Rate Norwest Mtg. 9.875 Nationwide 10.25 Sears Mtg. 10.125 FIXED RATE SECONDS Home Federal 11.375 Wells Fargo 12.25 ADJUSTABLE RATE FIRST Lender Union Bank Wells Fargo Bank of America Int. Rate 9.25 9.25 8.875 APR 10.28 10.63 10.42 11.79 12.30 Pts. 2.0 1.875 2.125 2.0 0 Max Years Loan 15 15 30 15 15 187,600 187,600 187,600 93,800 93,800 APR Pts. Index Margin 11.42 11.48 11.93 2.00 1.5 2.0 6 MTB 6 MTB 1 YTB 2.75 2.875 2.75 Rate Adj. 6 Mo. 6 Mo. 6 Mo. Neg Amort. No No Poss. Max Rate 14.625 16.375 12.875 m m The rates quoted are for prime, single-family, owner-occupied homes, purchased with a 20 percent down payment. The fixed-rate loans are competitive based on a combination of the qualifying interest rates and points for each kind of loan. APR is the Annual Percentage Rate based on a $100,000 loan. Source: San Diegon Union - June 4, 1989 m mt 90 c. Environmental Concerns m m Environmental concerns serve to constrain housing in two ways: (1) land availability is limited from development and (2) costs are increased due to efforts to mitigate environmental impacts. The San Diego Region has many environmental features that constrain development: coastal areas (sensitive bluffs/lagoons/wetlands), habitat for threatened/endangered species, steep slopes, floodplains/wetlands, geologic contraints and historic preservation. In addition, several undevelopable plan areas are completely constrained from development during the RHNS period. These plan areas consist mainly of public land, military land, or areas subject to voter approval. (See Table 52) Table 53 indicates the number of unusable acreage, by jurisdiction. The unusuable areas include vacant land as identified in the general plans of jurisdictions, as well as land that cannot be developed due to constraints. Constrained areas include any acreage considered not developable for reasons of steep slopes, public ownership, flood areas, riparian habitat, transmission line easements, flood channels and airport noise. Table 52 Series 7 Land Constrained from Private Development by MSA Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Major Statistical Area (MSA) 0 Central 1 North City 2 South Suburban 3 East Suburban 4 North County West 5 North County East Cordon Area Gross Acres 51,484 182,987 66,200 370,545 222,297 338,397 1,231,910 Constrained Acres 13,736 87,829 21,807 187,812 152,013 100,948 564,145 Percent Constrained 26.7 48.0 32.9 50.7 68.4 29.8 45.8 Source: SANDAG Final Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Land Use Inputs 91 m m Table 53 - *mi Unusable Acres by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement ^* San Diego Region w 1986 Jurisdiction Unusable Acres* y Carlsbad 7,186 «, Chula Vista 3,657 Coronado 1,920 *** Del Mar 262 El Cajon 1,314 ** Encinitas 3,129 *i Escondido 3,711 Imperial Beach 1,402 mi La Mesa 600 y Lemon Grove 299 National City 984 Oceanside 5,585 ™, Poway 10,812 * San Diego 91,541 San Marcos 1,331 **! Santee 4,341 ^j Solana Beach 188 Vista 1,358 «, Unincorporated 424,527 j Regional Total 564,147 - WF w *Does not relate to vacant land used to distribute the regional share. (See Table 54). m Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast - 1986 - 2010 _wf « ^ 1 92 d. Availability of Suitable Sites Available sites are significant in determining where, how much, and at what density land is available for housing. The table below reflects land use patterns for the jurisdictions found in the San Diego Region. Significant portions of all land in the cities of Carlsbad, Poway, San Marcos, and Santee, and seventy percent of the unincorporated area, remains vacant. Vacant land includes land with projects under construction, but not yet completed as of 1986. Land use in the newly incorporated cities of Solana Beach and Encinitas is primarily residential. Less than ten percent of the land area found in El Cajon, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, and Solana Beach remains vacant. The cordon area the urbanized area of San Diego, contains the western half of San Diego County (See Map 2). The remaining half of the region is not included because it does not significantly change from year to year and seventy percent of the land is publicly owned. Less than one percent of the region's total population resides within that area. 93 Table 54 Land Use Acres by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1986 Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos San tee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated San Diego Bay* Residential 4,734 6,873 1,132 525 5,254 5,144 7,610 1,047 3,880 1,758 2,005 6,976 5,041 54,679 2,411 3,433 1,344 5,477 73,741 Commercial & Office Space 504 1,0.12 110 59 1,079 477 1,136 125 737 276 671 899 356 8,745 341 282 190 599 1,944 Industrial 504 998 243 0 627 45 828 13 65 36 755 947 30 8,309 851 331 27 328 2,054 Trans., Comm., & Utilities 703 646 11 7 551 212 382 218 236 95 240 383 25 9,180 263 200 54 201 4,996 Education & Institution 143 701 717 7 558 200 465 330 314 83 502 391 228 7,997 214 217 65 229 8,027 Parks & Recreation 1,276 636 599 266 189 955 778 934 131 23 193 959 234 20,203 151 541 216 574 10,611 Agriculture 2,849 1,269 0 0 20 1,050 2,596 0 0 0 0 5,908 1,375 17,246 2,057 12 23 1,236 136,741 Water 884 0 3 12 0 0 71 0 6 0 0 96 70 3,653 14 70 0 0 4,719 10,227 Vacant 10,629 5,184 644 268 879 3,402 7,521 196 438 215 438 9,493 16,370 82,138 7,135 5,422 215 2,614 589,726 Total Area 22,226 17,319 3,459 1,144 9,157 11,485 21,387 2,863 5,807 2,486 4,804 26,052 23,729 212,150 13,437 10,508 2,134 11,258 832,559 10,227 Regional Total 193,064 19,542 16,991 18,603 21,388 39,469 172,382 19,825 742,927 1,244,191 *San Diego Bay lies partly within the cities of San Diego, Coronado, National City and Chula Vista, therefore, it is tabulated separately. Source:SANDAG INFO Number 7 - Land Use Patterns in the San Diego Region il ii it t j t i I l f i i I i i « MAP 2 MAJOR STATISTICAL AREAS REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS STATEMENT San Diego Region 1989 4 NORTH COUNTY WEST 5 NORTH COUNTY EAST 6 EAST COUNTY 1 NORTH CITY 3 EAST SUBURBAN 0 CENTRAL 2 SOUTH SUBURBAN if* m SOURCE: Final Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast - Land Use Inputs 95 Approximately thirty-five percent of the cordon area (429,000 acres) is still available for development. The majority of developable land is classified for low density residential use, which leaves 99,800 acres to accommodate activities which develop at typical urban densities. According to the forecast based upon regionwide population and economic activity, it is anticipated that a majority of the developable land, except for low density single family, will be used by the year 2010. Land reserved for low density single family development has the highest percentage of developable acres, while multiple family has the lowest. Approximately sixty percent of all vacant land is privately owned and holds the potential for development. Thirty-four percent of all vacant land is federally owned, while less than four percent is state government or locally controlled. Fifty-three percent of the privately owned land remains vacant and twenty-two percent is claimed for residential use. Table 55 Gross and Developable Acres (Cordon Area) Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1986 Gross Developable Percent Land Use Acres Acres Developable Low Density Single Family 441,800 329,200 75.0 Single Family 174,600 63,400 36.3 Multi-Family 37,300 8,000 21.4 Mixed Use 3,400 800 23.5 Local Serving 33,500 8,000 23.9 Basic 41,600 19,600 47.1 Undevelopable 499,500 0 0.0 Cordon Area 1,231,700 429,000 34.8 Source: SANDAG Final Series 7 96 Chapter 3 REGIONAL NEEDS A. INTRODUCTION.« The two most important sets of data contained in the Regional Housing "* Needs Statement are Regional Share and Fair Share. SANDAG has *• developed these figures to assist local jurisdictions in determining equitable distribution of housing unit needs and lower income household * assistance. This information will be used by the cities and County as m an integral part of their housing element revision as required by the State laws that govern the preparation of housing elements. This «, section of the RHNS presents this information and explains the methods used to generate the Regional Share and Fair Share.« B. REGIONAL SHARE m The housing elements must identify each jurisdiction's share of the region's total need for housing units. Regional Share is summarized in m Table 56. The data in this table was based on the Series 7 Regional Growth Forecasts and other currently available sources of information. "* The State Department of Housing & Community Development (HCD) ^ working in conjunction with SANDAG and the State Department of Finance projections identified a household increase of 125,772 from "* January 1, 1989 to July 1, 1996. These projections were consistent with Series 7 Regional Growth Forecasts for households for the same ** time frame. «M The household increase was converted to housing unit increase in order «» to respond to the state requirements. Using the approved HCD methodology, adjustments for vacancy (1989 - 13,151 and 1996 - 8,372) ** and replacements (14,934) were made and the total need for housing ^ units from January 1, 1989 to July 1, 1996 for the San Diego Region ** was established at 162,229. (See Appendix B HCD Data and *• Methodology). This figure (162,229 units) is the control total that was allocated to each jurisdiction to determine housing unit needs (See •* Column 2). The distribution of this need was accomplished through the 44 establishment of an allocation factor as described in Table 57. The proportions of household growth as identified in the Series 7 Regional *" Growth Forecasts could not be used because they are based on the local general plans and would not comply with the State Law and the ** State Attorney General's opinion of these procedures (See Appendix B • & C). The allocation factor is a composite of the two most direct indicators of the ability and need to provide new housing units: vacant m available land and employment. Thus, total land availability would not only provide a measure of capacity for residential growth but, since it's "* not determined by local zoning & plans, it would also meet the State ^ requirements. The second indicator ties the projected generation of new jobs directly to the projected need for new housing for these new ** employees. These two factors are averaged (Column 5, Table 57) and used to allocate the regional need to each jurisdiction (Columns 1 & 2, ** Table 56). 99 oo Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Table 56 Regional Share By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1/89 - 7/96 Total Regional Allocation Share Factor (1/89 to 7/96) 5-Year Regional Share Very Low (7/91 to 7/96) 23% Income Distribution (Growth Only) Low 17% Moderate 21% 5.8 3.3 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.3 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.7 1.0 6.9 2.3 40.5 3.4 1.8 0.4 3.6 19.1 (1) 9,409 5,354 973 487 3,082 2,109 10,058 324 2,109 1,136 1,622 11,194 3,731 65,703 5,516 2,920 649 5,840 30,986 (162,229) (2) 6,273 3,569 649 325 2,055 1,406 6,705 216 1,406 757 1,081 7,463 2,487 43,802 3,677 1,947 433 3,893 20,657 1,443 821 149 75 473 323 1,542 50 323 174 249 1,716 572 10,074 846 448 100 895 4,751 (108,801) (3) (25,024) (4) (18,497) (5) (22,846) (6) Column 1: From Table 57 (Column 5) Column 2: Column 1 Percent x Control Total Housing Needs 162,229 (See text Regional Share) Column 3: (Column 2) x (5 Years^ 7.5 Years) Columns 4/5/6/7: Column 3 Needs x .23 (Col. 4), .17 (Col. 5), .21 (Col. 6), and Balance (Col. 7) Source: SANDAG Regional Housing Needs Statement Tables and Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast All Other 39% (42,434) (7) t J ii «,*mm • i §it § i Table 57 Vacant Land/Employment Change By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1986 - 1995 1986 Vacant Land 7,893 3,551 263 36 729 1,929 5,548 156 1,133 929 638 9,483 2,226 30,849 4,206 1,903 142 4,272 29,173 105,059 (1) Percentage of Region's Vacant Land 7.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.8 5.3 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 9.0 2.1 29.4 4.0 1.8 0.1 4.1 27.8 100.0 (2) 1986 - 1995 Employment* Change 9,201 7,431 1,838 705 7,037 1,795 16,032 675 3,363 1,130 3,296 10,869 5,739 118,234 6,144 4,171 1,358 7,140 23,580 229,738 (3) Percentage of Region's Employment Change 4.0 3.2 0.8 0.3 3.1 0.8 7.0 0.3 1.5 0.5 1.4 4.7 2.5 51.5 2.7 1.8 0.6 3.1 10.3 100.0 (4) Allocation Factor 5.8 3.3 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.3 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.7 1.0 6.7 2.3 40.5 3.4 1.8 0.4 3.6 19.1 100.0 (5) Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Column 1: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Land Use inputs (unpublished files); Total Vacant Plus Redevelopment and Infill Acres Column 2: Column 1-s 105,059 (Total Column 1) Column 3: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast (City Profiles) Column 4: Column 3-s 229,738 (Total Column 3) Column 5: Column 2 + Column 4-* 2 (Average) ""Civilian Employment 101 Two other steps are provided in Table 56 that are components of the Regional Share: conversion of the housing needs to the five-year increment of the housing elements and distribution of the needs to income categories. The first step enables the member agencies to assess the status of its need for new construction at the time the revised housing elements would become effective (July 1, 1991). Thus, if the units produced from January 1, 1989 to July 1, 1991 were more than the gap identified in this Table (Column 3 - Column 2), the 5-Year Regional Share should be reduced by the net surplus; conversely if less units were produced, the 5-Year Regional Share should be increased by the net shortfall. The second step involves the distribution of the housing needs by income category. The four categories are required by the State Law and consist of very low, low, moderate, and all others as defined in Chapter II (Section B, 1, g. - Income). The percentages used to allocate each jurisdiction's Regional Share to the four income categories are based on HCD's estimates (See Appendix B) of Regional percentages for each category: very low, (23 percent), low (17 percent), moderate (21 percent), and all others (39 percent). C. FAIR SHARE Fair share identifies the lower income households that need assistance and consists of two sets of needs: existing and growth (Table 58). The fair share is allocated to each jurisdiction based on the population, housing, income, employment characteristics of each jurisdiction (the fair share formula). The total needs for each jurisdiction are then translated into a five year goal. Thus, a standard is provided that defines the level of effort by a local agency that would be accepted as reasonable progress towards meeting its lower income household needs. The provision of assistance to lower income households should be a regionwide concern; this assistance should be provided throughout the region in an equitable manner in order to respond to the entire area's lower income household needs. Each community should accept its share of the region's housing responsibilities in proportions similar to the demand that has been generated by existing lower income housing needs and by new demands resulting from growth. If current fair share commitments are to be fulfilled, local programs must continue to be developed (including incentives for private sector involvement) to achieve a higher level of production. This need will become increasingly important now that federal housing assistance has been reduced and/or rescinded, especially new construction. Many jurisdictions have developed local programs in response to this situation. Programs such as density bonuses, revenue bonds, land write-downs, CDBG assistance, inclusionary zoning, and coastal zone units have produced opportunities for affordable housing. However, these programs do not guarantee affordable housing for lower income households, and the needs will still exceed the available resources. 102 Additional efforts will be required during the next few years, especially for those programs such as the Proposed Housing Trust Fund, that are being developed to address affordable housing. 1. Formula Factors The fair-share factors consist of two sets of criteria existing "fair share" (Columns 1 and 2, Table 58) and "growth" fair share (Columns 3 and 4). These factors are characteristics of each jurisdiction as described by Tables 59 through 65. The region's lower income households that need assistance are then distributed based upon the "fair share" factor of each jurisdiction. The existing "Fair Share" percent (Column 1, Table 58) is computed by adding the existing factor percentages (for each jurisdiction): 1988 lower income, 1989 housing, 1986 employment, 1989 population, and 1988-1995 lower income balance (Tables 59 through 65) and dividing by five to arrive at the existing "fair share" percentages. These percentages are then multiplied by the total number of existing lower income households that need assistance (161,320) for the region to arrive at the existing "fair share" households in Column 2. The level of need (161,320) was determined in the region's 1988-1991 housing assistance plans (HAP's). The growth "fair share" percent (Column 3) is calculated in a similar manner. The growth in "fair share" households (Column 4) is calculated by dividing the total number of existing fair share households (161,320) by the total 1989 occupied housing units (876,717), and multiplying that percent by the six-year (1989-1995) growth in households (81,306). This figure is "normalized" (multiplied by 5/6) to represent a 5 year planning period. This result (12,467), is then multiplied by the percentages in Column 3 to distribute the regional need to jurisdictions. Columns 2 and 4 are added to arrive at the figures in Column 6. The total "fair share" percent (Column 5) is calculated by dividing the total "fair share" households in Column 6 by the control total (173,787). The five-year goals (Column 7) is calculated by multiplying the jurisdiction's total "fair share" households (Column 6) by .125 (5 year planning period multiplied by 2.5 percent per year "good faith" effort). The five-year goal represents a "good faith" effort that addresses 2.5* percent of the total housing need in each year of the five-year period in the housing elements. "Good Faith" effort is the concept that recognizes that a jurisdiction cannot be reasonably expected to address all of its needs lower This level varies from region to region. In most areas, the level was set at 5.0 percent per year; a few regions had a 3.0 percent level. In negotiations with the state and federal governments, a 2.5 percent standard was set for the San Diego Region. 103 Table 58 Fair Share By Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1991 - 1996 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solatia Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total Existing "Fair Share" (Percent) Existing "Fair Share" (Households) 5.1 4.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 2.6 43.0 2.4 3.0 0.9 2.1 18.2 (1) 8,227 7,905 1,936 484 3,549 4,033 6,291 323 3,388 1,291 323 7,098 4,194 69,368 3,872 4,840 1,452 3,388 29,360 (161,320) (2) Growth "Fair Share" (Percent) 6.2 4.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.2 3.8 0.1 1.8 0.8 -0.3 5.1 2.6 41.4 2.8 3.2 0.8 2.2 19.8 Growth "Fair Share" (Households) Total "Fair Share" (Percent) 5.2 4.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 2.6 42.9 2.4 3.0 0.9 2.1 18.3 (3) (12,467) (4)(5) Total "Fair Share" (Households) 9,000 8,466 2,073 521 3,761 4,307 6,765 335 3,612 1,391 298 7,734 4,518 74,529 4,221 5,239 1,552 3,662 31,828 (173,787) (6) Five-Year Goals 1,125 1,058 259 65 470 538 846 42 452 174 37 967 565 9,316 528 655 194 458 3.979 (21,728) (7) Column 1: From Table 59, Column 6 Column 2: Column 1 x Control Total: 161,320 (From Existing Need For All Housing Assistance Plans in San Diego Region) Column 3: From Table 60 Column 4: Column 3 x Control Total: 12,467 (Existing Need (161,320)-: Existing Occupied 876,717 = (.184) x Household Growth 1989 to 1995 (81,306) x 5 Years-: 6 Years for 5 Year Total = 67,755). ColumnS: Column 2 + Column 4-: Regional Total: 173,787(161,320 + 12,467) Column 6: Column 2 + Column 4 Column 7: Column 6 x 2.5% Per Year (Good Faith Effort) m income households that need assistance within the next five years. Thus, a standard was developed that defines the level of «* effort by a local agency that would be accepted as reasonable progress towards meeting this need. ^ 2. Method of "Fair Share" Determinations «• The factors and methods taken into consideration for each jurisdiction consist of the following information. M m Table 59, "Fair Share" Existing Factors. The Existing Fair Share Factors are averaged by taking the five factors (obtained from „, Tables 61 through 64) and dividing by five to arrive at the Existing "Fair Share" Factor for each jurisdiction. Table 60, "Fair Share" Growth Factors. This Table follows the ** same methodology as Table 59 but covers growth impacts. %Table 61, Lower Income Balance. The 1988 Lower Income •» households are those households that have income up to 80% of the median household income (very low and low) (see Table 65). The regional total of lower income households (317,029) is then m divided by the regional total of 1988 households (846,275). This percentage (37.5) is multiplied by each jurisdictions 1995 total •"I occupied housing unit (Table 62; Column 3) to arrive at a projected "fair share" estimate of lower income households for ** 1995 (Column 3). The increase/decrease (Column 5) is calculated m by subtracting Column 1 from Column 3. The figures in Column 6 are calculated by dividing the figures in Column 5 by the «*, regional total of 42,233. ** Table 62, Occupied Housing. The occupied housing totals in Column 1 are divided by the total regional occupied housing ** figure 876,717 to arrive at the percentages in Column 2. Column «• 4 is calculated in the same manner. The "occupied housing increase" represents the subtraction of Columns 1 and 3 for each *** jurisdiction. Each jurisdiction's "occupied housing increase" ,p figure is then translated into percentages by dividing each jurisdiction's "occupied housing increase" by the region total ^ (81,306). *" Table 63, Employment. This Table uses the most current (1988) ^ and complete employment information; the civilian employment for each jurisdiction was added to arrive at a regional total *» (1,032,542) for Column 1 and (1,137,354) for Column 3. Each jurisdiction's employment figure Column 1 and Column 3 is then *» divided by the total regional employment figure to arrive at the various percentages for 1989 and 1995 (Columns 2 and 4). ** "Employment Increase" (Column 3), is simply the subtraction of i—i employment figures in Column's 1 and 3. *» Table 64, Population. Population estimates for each jurisdiction are totaled to arrive at a regional total for 1989 (2,418,181) and **• 1995 (2,567,193) Columns 1 and 3. Each jurisdiction's population %» • 105 estimate is then divided by the regional total to arrive at the various percentages for 1989 and 1995, Columns 2 and 4. "Population increase" (Column 5) is simply the difference between the 1989 and 1995 population estimates (Columns 1 and 3), which are totaled to arrive at a regional total (149,012). Each figure in Column 5 is then divided by the regional total to arrrive at the various jurisdictional percentages for the region (Column 6). Table 65, Household Income Distribution. This Table uses the most current and complete household income information (1988). Households for each jurisdiction are distributed into the four income categories (very low, low, moderate, and above moderate). Each category is totaled to arrive at regional totals and regional percentages. tm 1 m g 106 —*1 Table 59 "Fair-Share" Existing Factors by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated 1988 Lower Income 1.7 5.4 0.7 0.2 4.7 2.0 4.8 1.5 2.8 1.0 2.9 5.4 0.6 49.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 3.0 11.0 (1) 1989 Housing 2.9 5.4 0.9 0.3 3.8 2.3 4.5 1.0 2.6 0.9 1.7 5.0 1.5 46.6 1.4 2.0 0.7 2.7 13.8 1988 Employment 2.9 4.6 1.7 0.5 4.2 2.1 4.7 0.3 2.4 0.7 2.1 2.9 0.9 56.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 7.8 1989 Population 2.6 5.3 1.0 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 2.3 4.9 1.8 44.9 1.4 2.2 0.6 2.6 16.2 (2)(3)(4) 1988-1995 Lower Income Balance 15.4 4.0 1.9 0.5 -5.3 3.8 1.6 -2.8 0.5 0.5 -8.1 3.9 8.4 17.9 6.3 8.4 1.9 0.4 42.0 (5) Column 1, see Table 61 Column 2 Column 2, see Table 62 Column 2 Column 3, see Table 63 Column 2 Column 4, see Table 64 Column 2 Column 5, see Table 61 Column 6 Column 6, [Col. 1 + Col. 2 + Col. 3 + Col. 4 + Col. 5]-s 5 (e.g., for Carlsbad, [1.7 + 2.9 + 2.9 + 2.6 + 15.4]-; 5 = 5.1 (Existing Fair Share Factor) Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Existing "Fair-Share" Factor 5.1 4.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 2.6 43.0 2.4 3.0 0.9 2.1 18.2 (6) 107 Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated 1988 Lower Income Total 1.7 5.4 0.7 0.2 4.7 2.0 4.8 1.5 2.8 1.0 2.9 5.4 0.6 49.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 3.0 11.0 1995 Housing Total 3.3 5.2 0.9 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.4 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.6 5.3 1.5 45.7 1.6 2.1 0.6 2.7 14.7 (1) Table 60 "Fair-Share" Growth Factors by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 1989-1995 Housing Increase 7.9 4.0 0.7 0 1.2 1.6 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 8.0 1.3 36.4 3.4 2.8 0.2 3.0 23.6 (3) 1995 Employment Total 2.9 4.0 1.2 0.4 4.4 1.5 4.6 0.3 2.5 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.1 57.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.8 7.8 1988-1995 Lower Income Balance 15.4 4.0 1.9 0.5 -5.3 3.8 1.6 -2.8 0.5 0.5 -8.1 3.9 8.4 17.9 6.3 8.4 1.9 0.4 42.0 (2)(4)(5) Column 1, see Table 61 Column 2 Column 2, see Table 62 Column 4 Column 3, see Table 62 Column 6 Column 4, see Table 63 Column 4 Column 5, see Table 61 Column 6 Column 6, [Col. 1 + Col. 2 + Col. 3 + Col. 4 + Col. 5]-s 5 (e.g., for Carlsbad, [1.7 + 3.3 + 7.9 + 2.9 + 15.4]-s 5 = 6.2 (Growth Fair Share Factor)) Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast Growth "Fair-Share" Factor 6.2 4.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.2 3.8 0.1 1.8 0.8 -0.3 5.1 2.6 41.4 2.8 3.2 0.8 2.2 19.8 (6) 108 Table 61 Lower Income Balance by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 - 1995 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated 1988 Lower Income Households 5,438 17,172 2,266 693 15,040 6,445 15,153 4,643 9,033 3,066 9,174 17,257 1,872 156,714 3,132 3,917 1,432 9,648 34,934 % Region 1.7 5.4 0.7 0.2 4.7 2.0 4.8 1.5 2.8 1.0 2.9 5.4 0.6 49.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 3.0 11.0 Projected Lower-Income Households 1995* 11,925 18,844 3,057 893 12,783 8,043 15,849 3,479 8,807 3,278 5,753 18,921 5,423 164,265 5,775 7,482 2,216 9,810 52,659 % Region Increase/Decrease 1988-1995 for "Fair-Share" % Region 3.3 5.2 0.9 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.4 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.6 5.3 1.5 45.7 1.6 2.1 0.6 2.7 14.7 6,487 1,672 791 200 -2,257 1,598 696 -1,164 -226 212 -3,421 1,664 3,551 7,551 2,643 3,565 784 162 17,725 15.4 4.0 1.9 0.5 -5.3 3.8 1.6 -2.8 0.5 0.5 -8.1 3.9 8.4 17.9 6.3 8.4 1.9 0.4 42.0 Regional Total 317,029 (1)(2) 359,262 (3)(4) 42,233 (5)(6) * 37.5 Percent of 1995 household forecast (958,023 occupied housing units); Total lower income households 1988 (317,029) divided by Total 1988 households (846,275) equals 37.5 percent. Column 1: See Table 65 Column 5 Column 2: Column 1-; 317,029 Column 3: Table 62 - Column 3 x 37.5 (e.g., Carlsbad 31,800 x 37.5) Column 4: Column 3-: 359,262 Column 5: Column 3 - Column 1 Column 6: Column 5-: 42,233 Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast, and 1988 Estimate of Household Income by City 109 Table 62 Occupied Housing by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Occupied Housing 1989 25,358 47,007 7,560 2,383 33,110 20,112 39,459 8,869 22,781 8,190 15,062 43,911 13,414 408,462 12,610 17,695 5,752 23,723 121,259 1989 Percent Region 2.9 5.4 0.9 0.3 3.8 2.3 4.5 1.0 2.6 0.9 1.7 5.0 1.5 46.6 1.4 2.0 0.7 2.7 13.8 Occupied Housing 1995 31,800 50,251 8,151 2,380 34,087 21,448 42,265 9,277 23,484 8,741 15,341 50,456 14,461 438,040 15,399 19,951 5,909 26,159 140,423 1995 Percent Region 3.3 5.2 0.9 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.4 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.6 5.3 1.5 45.7 1.6 2.1 0.6 2.7 14.7 Occupied Housing Increase 1989-1995 6,442 3,244 591 -3 977 1,336 2,806 408 703 551 279 6,545 1,047 29,578 2,789 2,256 157 2,436 19,164 89-95 Percent Region 7.9 4.0 0.7 0 1.2 1.6 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 8.0 1.3 36.4 3.4 2.8 0.2 3.0 23.6 Regional Total 876,717 (1)(2) 958,023 (3)(4) 81,306 (5)(6) Column 1: January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates Column 2: Column l-« 876,717 (Regional Total) Column 3: Series 7 Column 4: Column 3-* 958,023 (Regional Total) Column 5: Column 3-1 Column 6: Column 5-s 81,306 (Regional Total) Source: January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimates, and Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 110 Table 63 Employment by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 and 1995 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Employment* 1988 30,252 47,233 17,563 5,450 43,208 21,765 48,402 3,406 24,884 7,283 21,899 29,934 9,513 580,750 21,662 12,920 7,460 18,400 80,558 Percent Region 2.9 4.6 1.7 0.5 4.2 2.1 4.7 0.3 2.4 0.7 2.1 2.9 0.9 56.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 7.8 Employment* 1995 Percent Region 32,461 45,677 14,051 4,583 49,797 16,499 51,762 3,807 28,046 9,463 22,741 35,342 12,767 654,881 21,885 15,137 8,738 20,534 89,183 2.9 4.0 1.2 0.4 4.4 1.5 4.6 0.3 2.5 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.1 57.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.8 7.8 Regional Total 1,032,542 (1)(2) 1,137,354 (3)(4) *Military not included Column 1: SANDAG, 1988 Employment Inventory (Unpublished Tabulations) Column 2: Column 1-: 1,032,542 (Regional Total) Column 3: SANDAG, Series 7, Regional Growth Forecasts Column 4: Column 3-: 1,137,354 (Regional Total) Source: Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 111 Table 64 Population by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 - 1995 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Pop. 1989 62,030 128,026 24,595 5,131 86,403 53,120 99,007 25,970 53,004 22,749 56,475 117,597 43,121 1,086,592 33,835 52,402 14,694 61,742 391,688 Percent Region 2.6 5.3 1.0 0.2 3.6 2.2 4.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 2.3 4.9 1.8 44.9 1.4 2.2 0.6 2.6 16.2 Pop. 1995 77,310 132,304 25,475 5,223 85,353 55,890 105,136 26,241 53,798 23,661 55,409 130,664 44,591 1,138,675 40,725 57,185 15,055 67,728 426,770 Percent. Region 3.0 5.2 1.0 0.2 3.3 2.2 4.1 1.0 2.1 0.9 2.2 5.1 1.7 44.4 1.6 2.2 0.6 2.6 16.6 Pop. Increase 1989-1995 15,280 4,278 880 92 -1,050 2,770 6,129 271 794 912 -1,066 13,067 1,470 52,083 6,890 4,783 361 5,986 35,082 Percent Region 10.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 -0.7 1.9 4.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 -0.7 8.8 1.0 35.0 4.6 3.2 0.2 4.0 23.5 Regional Total E.g., for Carlsbad, 2,418,181 (1) Column 1: Column 2: Column 3: Column 4: Column 5: Column 6: (2) 2,567,193 (3)(4) 149,012 (5)(6) SANDAG, January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimate Column !-« 2,418,181 (Regional Total) SANDAG Series 7 Column 3-s 2,567, 193 (Regional Total) Column 3 - Column 1 Column 5-s 149,012 (Regional Total) Source: January 1, 1989 Population and Housing Estimate, and Series 7 Regional Growth Forecast 112 f t t i I f i I I f I i I t • I if f 9 f F I 9 • t * i i t ii si 11 Housing Income Distribution by Jurisdiction Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1988 Jurisdiction Very Low Moderate All Other Total Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Vista Unincorporated Regional Total E.g., for Carlsbad, 1,924 6,553 950 303 6,473 2,459 5,901 1,744 3,629 1,076 4,318 6,556 505 65,985 969 1,118 600 3,887 11,863 126,813 (1) 8.0 14.3 12.8 12.7 19.9 12.5 15.8 19.9 16.1 13.2 28.9 16.2 3.9 16.6 9.8 6.4 10.5 18.1 10.1 (15.0) (2) 3,514 10,619 1,316 390 8,567 3,986 9,252 2,899 5,404 1,990 4,856 10,701 1,367 90,729 2,163 2,799 832 5,761 23,071 190,216 (3) 14.6 23.2 17.7 16.4 26.3 20.3 25.0 33.0 24.0 24.4 32.5 26.5 10.6 22.9 21.8 15.9 14.6 26.9 19.6 (22.5) (4) 5,438 17,172 2,266 693 15,040 6,445 15,153 4,643 9,033 3,066 9,174 17,257 1,872 156,714 3,132 3,917 1,432 9,648 34,934 317,029 (5) 22.6 37.5 30.4 29.1 46.2 32.8 40.5 52.9 40.0 37.6 61.3 42.7 14.5 39.5 31.6 22.3 25.1 45.0 29.7 (37.5) (6) 4,368 10,614 1,316 397 7,323 4,145 8,680 2,230 5,070 2,218 3,318 9,582 2,196 84,556 2,578 982 961 4,945 20,536 176,015 (7) 18.1 23.2 17.7 16.7 22.5 21.1 23.2 25.4 22.5 27.2 22.2 23.7 17.0 21.3 26.0 5.6 16.9 23.1 17.4 (20.8) (8) 14,278 17,901 3,867 1,291 10,215 9,089 13,564 1,906 8,453 2,872 2,465 13,571 8,830 155,678 4,192 12,655 3,303 6,840 62,261 353,231 (9) 59.3 39.2 52.0 54.2 31.4 46.2 36.3 21.7 37.5 35.2 16.5 33.6 68.5 39.2 42.3 72.1 58.0 32.0 52.9 (41.7) (10) 24,084 45,687 7,449 2,381 32,578 19,679 37,397 8,779 22,556 8,156 14,957 40,410 12,898 396,948 9,902 17,554 5,696 21,433 117,731 846,275 (11) Column 2: Column 4: Column 6: Column 8: Column 10: Column l-« Column 11 Column 3-t Column 11 Column 5-s Column 11 Column 7-: Column 11 Column 9-: Column 11 Figures in Columns 1, 3, 7, 9 and 11 were obtained from SANDAG's Estimates of 1988 Household Income by City *Lower reflects very low and low income households and these figures are not added in Column 11 Totals. Source: SANDAG - Estimates of 1988 Household Income by City APPENDICES 1(0 Appendix A PROFILE TABLES Table A-lr • w. Profile Table "" CARLSBAD "* Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate y> Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above * 6,273 1,443 1,066 1,317 2,447 40.0 60.0 j, (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) •» Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals M, m Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year *.„ Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals *" 5.1 6.2 5.2 9,000 1,125 ^ (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) w« Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Carlsbad had a total of 13,586 occupied housing *•* units, of which 63.8% were owner occupied and 36.2% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would *** result in the following estimates: owner - 16,178; and renter - 9,180. Housing Indicators/Special Needs v Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 11.5% of Carlsbad's total population was 65 ""' years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population; would result «H in: 7,133 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Carlsbad had 13,586 total households, of which 1,196 *" were large households, accounting for 8.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,232 large households. <r»Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent * households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this ^ group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Carlsbad had 635 female headed households with one or more children, accounting for 4.7% of the City's total M households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 1,192 female-headed households. <*y Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. ** The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The m Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the •* City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 6,203 handicapped persons. v 119 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. ~ Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp • Pendleton and the Miramar Naval Air Station. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 13.5% of the City's total population, Asian 2.4% and Black .6%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 16%, Black 1%, and Asian 6%. ^ IFarmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to * estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 7.8% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 2.5% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City of Carlsbad has estimated its homeless population to include approximately one half dozen transients that can be considered residents. 120 I 1 _ Table A-2•jp A Profile Table ** CHULA VISTA *" Future Housing Need by Income Category *»Very All % % Moderate * Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above ** 3,569 821 607 749 1,392 40.0 60.0 * (Housing units for all households 1991 - 1996) m Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals !•* ^ Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year *-, Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals ** 4.9 4.5 4.9 8,466 1,058 ^ (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) «*»i Owner/Renter: In 1980, the City of Chula Vista had a total of 30,398 occupied »-* housing units, of which 58.2% were owner occupied and 41.8% were renter ^ occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 27,358 and renter - 19,649. •Mk Housing Indicators/Special Needs v Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 10.3% of Chula Vista total population was 65 ~* years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result w. in: 13,187 elderly individuals. * Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Chula Vista had 30,398 total households, of which *"* 3,937 were large households, accounting for 13% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 6,111 large ""** households. t^ Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent * households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this m group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Chula Vista had 2,230 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 7.3% of the City's .„ total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 3,432 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. ** The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The m Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the r*» City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 12,803 handicapped persons. w ^ 121 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around the southbay areas of the Cities of National City, Chula Vista, and Imperial Beach. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 23.4% of the City's total population, Asian 6% and Blacks 1.9%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 29%, Black 2%, and Asian 9%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.1% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately .5% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City of Chula Vista has an estimated 350 - 500 homeless individuals. 122 ,m Table A-3 „, Profile Table '** CORONADO Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate «*» Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above ** 649 149 110 136 254 40.0 60.0 «. (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) at Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals in Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year M* Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals "* 1.2 1.1 1.2 2,073 259 ^ (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) w*l Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Coronado had a total of 6,823 occupied housing units, of which 44.3% were owner occupied and 55.7% were renter occupied. ,„, Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 3,349; and renter - 4,211. fm Housing Indicators/Special Needs«• ^ Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 13.9% of Coronado's total population was 65 "* years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result •*- in: 3,419 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with ^ five or more persons. In 1980, Coronado had 6,823 total households, of which 407 **** were large households, accounting for 6% of the City's total households. Applying „„ this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 454 large households. ** Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this *" group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Coronado had 387 female-headed .« households with one or more children, accounting for 5.7% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in •» the following: 431 female-headed households. *"* Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total -«w population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 2,460 handicapped persons. 123 1Ml Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. 5 Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Navy Stations in the Cities of San Diego and Coronado. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for I 4.6% of the City's total population, Asian 2.8% and Blacks 1.8%. In 1988, the City ^ had the following distribution: Hispanic 6%, Black 5%, and Asian 6%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 2.3% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 0.3% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Coronado is not available at this T time. IP * * 1 124 Table A-4 Profile Table DEL MAR Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 325 75 55 68 127 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five- Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five- Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 0.3 0.3 0.3 521 65 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Del Mar had a total of 2,253 occupied housing units, of which 46% were owner occupied and 54% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 1,096; and renter - 1,287. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 10.5% of the City's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 539 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Del Mar had 2,253 total households, of which 116 were large households, accounting for 5.1% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 122 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, the City had 55 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 2.4% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 57 female-headed households. Handicapped: The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 513 handicapped persons. 125 • *lStudents; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. j Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing ^ demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. '1 Spring 1989 # Students Provided «•* Institution Enrollment With Campus Housing University of California at San Diego 16,187 4,700 Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp Pendleton, and the Miramar Naval Air Station. <4 Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for * 3.8% of the City's total population, Asian 2% and Blacks .4%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 4%, Black 0%, and Asian 3%. »* Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to m estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of ^ farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, the ^ Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 3.1% of the *j City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988 the City had * approximately 2.6% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Del Mar is not available at this m time. * ^ It M «* ^ 126 Table A-5 Profile Table EL CAJON Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 473 349 432 801 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth ''Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 2.2 1.7 2.2 3,761 470 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of El Cajon had a total of 28,464 occupied housing units, of which 43.4% were owner occupied and 56.6% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 14,370; and renter - 18,740. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 10.8% of El Cajon's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 9,332 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, El Cajon had 28,464 total households, of which 2,511 were large households, accounting for 8.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,914 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Del Mar had 2,505 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 8.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 29,137 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 8,640 handicapped persons. 127 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Spring 1989 # Students Provided Institution Enrollment With Campus Housing San Diego State University 35,309 2,489 Military; The major concentrations of military population center around central areas of San Diego. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 7.9% of the City's total population, Asian 2% and Blacks 1%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 10%, Black 1%, and Asian 4%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.3% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 0.6% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of El Cajon is not available at this time. 128 ^ Table A-6 M, Profile Table "• ENCINTTAS * Future Housing Need by Income Category m Very All % % Moderate M Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above * 1,406 323 239 295 549 40.0 60.0 ^ (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) « Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals urn & Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year ** Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals *" 2.5 2.2 2.5 4,307 538 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996)-^m m Owner/Renter; In 1980, the Census Designated Place of Encinitas had a total of -" 4,289 occupied housing units, of which 55.9% were owner occupied and 44.1% were ^ renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 11,243; and renter - 8,869. Housing Indicators/Special Needs *"* Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 13.2% of Encinitas1 total population was 65 » years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 7,012 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with "* five or more persons. In 1980, Encinitas had 4,289 total households, of which 356 ^ were large households, accounting for 8.3% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 1,669 large *"* households. *~* Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent m households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Encinitas had 183 female-headed ** households with one or more children, accounting for 4.3% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in ** the following: 865 female-headed households. ** Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. m The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total «•> population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 5,312 handicapped persons. 129 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. , Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing ^ demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. ^ Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp «** Pendleton. '*! Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for ^ 12.4% of the City's total population, Asian 3.1% and Blacks .3%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 14%, Black 0%, and Asian 4%. ^ I Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to ** estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of ** whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, *i individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 7.4% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in «ir 1988, the City had approximately 14.5% of its workforce employed in these j industries. ** Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Encinitas is not available at this . time. •» H| f i m 130 Table A-7 Profile Table ESCONDIDO Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 6,705 1,542 1,140 1,408 2,615 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five- Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five- Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 3.9 3.8 3.9 6,765 846 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Escondido had a total of 25,046 occupied housing units, of which 54.6% were owner occupied and 45.4% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 21,545; and renter - 17,914. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 16.3% of Escondido's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 16,138 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Escondido had 25,046 total households, of which 2,451 were large households, accounting for 9.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 3,867 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Escondido had 1,592 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.4% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 2,525 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 4,312 handicapped persons. 131 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing need, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp Pendleton and the Mir a mar Naval Air Station. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 14.6% of the City's total population, Asian 2.5% and Blacks .4%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 19%, Black 0%, and Asian 5%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 3.3% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 2.5% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Escondido is unavailable at this time. I *?tti 3 i •i 132 Table A-8 Profile Table IMPERIAL BEACH Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 216 50 37 45 84 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five- Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five- Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 0.2 0.1 0.2 335 42 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Imperial Beach had a total of 7,767 occupied housing units, of which 33.3% were owner occupied and 66.7% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 2,953; and renter - 5,916. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 4.1% of Imperial Beach's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 1,065 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Imperial Beach had 7,767 total households, of which 980 were large households, accounting for 12.6% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 1,117 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Imperial Beach had 751 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 9.7% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 860 female-headed households. Handicapped: The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 2,597 handicapped persons. 133 J Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing *** demand any post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. . 1Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Navy ii Stations in the southbay areas of National City, Chula Vista, and Imperial Beach. 1Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for m 21.3% of the City's total population, Asian 7.2% and Blacks 2.8%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution; Hispanic 23%, Black 3%, and Asian 9%. ^ Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to " estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of ft whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, H individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.3% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in • 1988, the City had approximately 1.5% of its workforce employed in these S industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Imperial Beach is not available at • this time. • 1 I 134 Table A-9 m Profile Table *" LA MESA "*" Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate •* Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above *" 1,406 323 239 295 549 40.0 60.0 ^ (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) m Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals «• « Totalw Total "Fair Share" Five-Year «* Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals "• 2.1 1.8 2.1 3,612 452 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) w Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of La Mesa had a total of 21,563 occupied housing *•* units, of which 52.9% were owner occupied and 47.1% were renter occupied. ^ Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 12,051; and renter - 10,730. Housing Indicators/Special Needs«•» Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 14.7% of La Mesa's total population was 65 *"* years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result ,„ in: 7,792 elderly individuals. •** Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, La Mesa had 21,563 total households, of which 1,246 *" were large households, accounting for 5.8% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 1,321 large households. »» , Single-Parent/Female Headed Households: The housing needs of single-parent :* households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this |— group is the female-headed households. In 1980, La Mesa had 1,353 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.3% of the City's total |MR households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 1,435 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. '** The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The « Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the am City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 2,597 handicapped persons. •m» 135 w Students: Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. 1 Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon.housing "C demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. " Spring 1989 # Students Provided * Institution Enrollment With Campus Housing San Diego State University 35,309 2,489 Military: The major concentrations of military population center around the Navy Stations in the central area of San Diego. Minority: Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 6.3% of the City's total population, Asian 1.9% and Blacks 1.8%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 8%, Black 2%, and Asian 4%. Farmworkers: The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.4% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 1.0% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City has an estimated 35 - 40 homeless individuals. 136 Table A-10*f ^ Profile Table •• LEMON GROVE •* Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate -* Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above ""• 757 174 129 159 295 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) &* oW Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals mm Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year ^ Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals ** 0.8 0.8 0.8 1,391 174 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) WWW ** Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Lemon Grove had a total of 7,276 occupied •— housing units, of which 64.1% were owner occupied and 35.9% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing "" units would result in the following estimates: owner - 5,250; and renter - 2,940. Housing Indicators/Special Needs MM Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 13.2% of Lemon Grove's total population was *•> 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would m result in: 3,002 elderly individuals. ^ Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Lemon Grove had 7,276 total households, of which ** 852 were large households, accounting for 11.7% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 958 large *"" households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households: The housing needs of single-parent «** households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Lemon Grove had 474 female-m headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 532 female-headed households.m Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. ** The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The m Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the „ City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 2,275 handicapped persons. •f 137 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. 1 Although students may produce temporary needs, the impact upon housing demand "* and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Navy » Stations in the central area of San Diego. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 14.0% of the City's total population, Asian 3.2% and Blacks 4.6%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 16%, Black 5%, and Asian 6%. * Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to " estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of - farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of <t| whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, tl individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.6% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in m 1988, the City had approximately 4.5% of its workforce employed in these ^ industries. s Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Lemon Grove is not available at this time. * m «- 138 m Table A-llV „* Profile Table U NATIONAL CITY <i' Future Housing Need by Income Category • Very All % % Moderate •* Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 1,081 249 184 227 421 40.0 60.0 ^ (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) •t Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goalsm H) Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year m Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals * 0.2 -0.2 0.2 298 37 ^ (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) v Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of National City had a total of 14,290 occupied *"" housing units, of which 35.9% were owner occupied and 64.1% were renter fc occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 5,407; and renter - 9,655. -«*wi Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 8.0% of National City's total population was "*" 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would IM result in: 4,518 elderly individuals. <** Family/Large Households: Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, National City had 14,290 total households, of which "" 2,407 were large households, accounting for 16.8% of the City's total households. ^ Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2.530 large households. v Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent *3 households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this H group is the female-headed households. In 1980, National City had 1,596 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 11.2% of the City's MI total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 1,687 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The in Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the f» City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 5,648 handicapped persons. V « 139 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Navy Stations in the southbay areas of National City, Chula Vista, and Imperial Beach. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 38.4% of the City's total population, Asian 11.1% and Blacks 8.7%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 42%, Black 7%, and Asian 14%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 2.0% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 0.3% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of National City is not available at this time. 140 Table A-12 Profile Table m OCEANSIDE "* Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate „ Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above * 7,463 1,716 1,269 1,567 2,911 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals *• m Total > Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals ** 4.4 5.1 4.4 7,734 967 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996)•• **" Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Oceanside had a total of 29,022 occupied M housing units, of which 55.4% were owner occupied and 46.5% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housingm units would result in the following estimates: owner - 24,327; and renter - 20,419. *" Housing Indicators/Special Needs an Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 13.7% of Oceanside's total population was 65 m years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result ^ in: 16,111 elderly individuals. m Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Oceanside had 29,022 total households, of which <* 2,999 were large households, accounting for 11.3% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 4,523 largem households. <•»Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent M households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Oceanside had 1,782 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.1% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate wouldm result in the following: 2,679 female-headed households.m Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. * The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The — Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the M, City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 11,760 handicapped persons. <p 141 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. J Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing " demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. _3Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp "• Pendleton. "IMinority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for ^ 18.4% of the City's total population, Asian 5.1% and Blacks 7.3%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 21%, Black 8%, and Asian 9%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to "™ estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of i whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, «* individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 7.1% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in m 1988, the City had approximately 5% of its workforce employed in these industries. *i Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Oceanside is not available at this . time. "I kl 1 142 Table A-13 Profile Table POWAY Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 2,487 572 423 522 970 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 2.6 2.6 2.6 4,518 565 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the Census Designated Place of Poway had a total of 10,049 occupied housing units, of which 77.4% were owner occupied and 22.6% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 10,382; and renter - 3,032. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 4.2% of Poway's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 1,811 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Poway had 10,049 total households, of which 1,743 were large households, accounting for 17.3% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,321 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Poway had 647 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.4% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 858 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 4,312 handicapped persons. 143 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Miramar Naval Air Station. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 5.2% of the City's total population, Asian 3.2% and Blacks 1.3%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 6%, Black 1%, and Asian 6%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.2% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 4.4% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. The City of Poway has approximately 300 homeless individuals. if to Pit. I pi in 144 Table A-14 Profile Table SAN DIEGO CITY Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 43,802 10,074 7,446 9,198 17,084 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 43.0 41.4 42.9 74,529 9,316 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of San Diego had a total of 321,060 occupied housing units, of which 49.1% were owner occupied and 50.9% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 200,554; and renter - 207,907. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 9.7% of San Diego's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 105,399 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, San Diego had 321,060 total households, of which 34,426 were large households, accounting for 10.7% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 43,705 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, San Diego had 22,351 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 7.0% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 28,592 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 108,659 handicapped persons. 145 Students: Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Spring 1989 # Students Provided Institution Enrollment With Campus Housing San Diego State University 35,309 2,489 University of San Diego 5,300 2,000 University of California at San Diego 16,187 4,700 Military; The major concentrations of military population center around the Navy 'Stations in the central area of San Diego and Coronado. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 14.9% of the City's total population, Asian 6.4% and Blacks 8.7%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 17%, Black 9%, and Asian 12%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.5% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 0.9% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City of San Diego has an estimated 3000 homeless individuals that are primarily located in the downtown area. 146 Table A-15 Profile Table SAN MARCOS Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 846 625 772 1,434 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 2.4 2.8 2.4 4,221 528 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of San Marcos had a total of 6,242 occupied housing units, of which 76.0% were owner occupied and 24% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 9,584; and renter - 3,026. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 15.6% of San Marcos' total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 5,278 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, San Marcos had 6,242 total households, of which 789 were large households, accounting for 12.6% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 1,589 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, San Marcos had 329 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 5.3% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 668 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 3,384 handicapped persons. 147 I k Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impace upon housing " demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp « Pendleton. m Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 12.8% of the City's total population, Asian 2.1% and Blacks .4%. In 1988, the City "" had the following distribution; Hispanic 17%, Black 0%, and Asian 5%. m Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to «• estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of M whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, m individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 5.9% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in * 1988, the City had approximately 3.1% of its workforce employed in these industries. *" Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of San Marcos is not available at " this time. M P i ffm t I m m 148 Table A-16 Profile Table«• • SANTEE •* Future Housing Need by Income Category "* Very All % % Moderate m Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above "• 1,947 448 331 409 759 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals «M Total ** Total "Fair Share" Five-Year ^ Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals - 3.0 3.2 3.0 5,239 655 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) *«• Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Santee had a total of 13,800 occupied housing mm units, of which 74.7% were owner occupied and 25.3% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would ** result in the following estimates: owner - 13,218; and renter - 4,477. ** Housing Indicators/Special Needs -m Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 7.5% of Santee's total population was 65 years **» or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: m 3,930 elderly individuals. ^ Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Santee had 15,569 total households, of which 2,253 ** were large households, accounting for 14.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,566 large *" households. •m Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent •*. households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Santee had 1,160 female-headed ** households with one or more children, accounting for 7.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in "* the following: 1,327 female-headed households. .m Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. ** The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The m Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the ,M City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 3,384 handicapped persons. •MM 149 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Miramar Naval Air Station. Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for 7.3% of the City's total population, Asian 2.1% and Blacks .7%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 8%, Black 1%, and Asian 5%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.1% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 1.7% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless: The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, the City of Santee has estimated in its housing element that it contains approximately 30-45 homeless individuals. *» Hi 150 m •i Table A-17 Profile Table SOLANA BEACH Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 433 100 74 91 168 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 0.9 0.8 0.9 1,552 194 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the Census Designated Place of Solana Beach had a total of 5,066 occupied housing units, of which 60.2% were owner occupied and 39.8% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 3,463; and renter - 2,289. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 9.0% of Solana Beach's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 1,322 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Solana Beach had 5,066 total households, of which 462 were large households, accounting for 9.1% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 523 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Solana Beach had 312 female- headed households with one or more children, accounting for 6.2% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 357 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 1,469 handicapped persons. 151 1 Ml Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. ] Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing *"* demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas.^ Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp w* Pendleton. "IMinority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for . 11.8% of the City's total population, Asian 2% and Blacks .2%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 14%, Black 0%, and Asian 3%. Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to "• estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of "] whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, ^ individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 3.0% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in 1988, the City had approximately 4.1% of its workforce employed in these industries. Homeless; The number of homeless in the City of Solana Beach is not available at this time. Mf m 152 Table A-18 Profile Table VISTA Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 3,893 895 662 818 1,518 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991-1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 2.1 2.2 2.1 3,662 458 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the City of Vista had a total of 13,690 occupied housing units, of which 58.6% were owner occupied and 41.4% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 13,902; and renter - 9,821. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 15.9% of Vista's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the City's 1989 population would result in: 9,817 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households; Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, Vista had 13,690 total households, of which 1,441 were large households, accounting for 10.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 2,491 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, Vista had 1,033 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 7.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 1,779 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the City's 1989 population would result in an estimate of 6,174 handicapped persons. 153 Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing demand and post study residence is critical in the immediate university areas.m Military: The major concentrations of military population center around Camp <•! Pendleton. "!Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for ^ 17.2% of the City's total population, Asian 3.5% and Blacks 1.1%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution: Hispanic 22%, Black 1%, and Asian 7%. „, Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to •" ' estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of *f whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, MJ individuals employed in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 6.0% of the City's total work force. SANDAG estimates show that in H; 1988, the City had approximately 3.9% of its workforce employed in these J industries. Homeless: The number of homeless in the City of Vista is not available at this rf" •"• • • j&^ytime. " HI m Htf 154 m Table A-19 Profile Table UNINCORPORATED Future Housing Need by Income Category Very All % % Moderate Total Low Low Moderate Other Lower and Above 20,657 4,751 3,512 4,338 8,056 40.0 60.0 (Housing units for all households 1991 - 1996) Existing/Growth "Fair Share" Factors - Five-Year Goals Total Total "Fair Share" Five-Year Existing % Growth % "Fair Share" % Households Goals 18.2 19.8 18.3 31,828 3,979 (Lower-Income Households Needing Assistance: Existing/Growth 1991-1996) Owner/Renter; In 1980, the unincorporated area had a total of 107,045 occupied housing units, of which 72.1% were owner occupied and 27.9% were renter occupied. Applying these percentages to the City's 1989 total occupied housing units would result in the following estimates: owner - 87,428; and renter - 33,831. Housing Indicators/Special Needs Elderly; Based on 1980 Census data, 16.3% of the unincorporated area's total population was 65 years or older. Applying this percentage to the unincorporated areas 1989 population would result in: 63,845 elderly individuals. Family/Large Households: Large households are defined as those households with five or more persons. In 1980, the unincorporated areas had 107,045 total households, of which 14,549 were large households, accounting for 13.6% of the unincorporated area's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in: 16,491 large households. Single-Parent/Female Headed Households; The housing needs of single-parent households have increased in recent years. The most significant portion of this group is the female-headed households. In 1980, the unincorporated area had 5,837 female-headed households with one or more children, accounting for 5.5% of the City's total households. Applying this percentage to arrive at a 1989 estimate would result in the following: 6,669 female-headed households. Handicapped; The information on handicapped housing needs is difficult to obtain. The census data is limited to work/transportation related disabilities. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 10% of the total population in the United States is handicapped. Applying the national figures to the unincorporated areas 1989 population would result in an estimate of 39,169 handicapped persons. 155 I I Students; Student housing is a significant factor that affects housing availability. Although students may produce temporary housing needs, the impact upon housing * demand and post-study residence is critical in the immediate university areas. Spring 1989 # Students Provided i Institution Enrollment With Campus Housing • San Diego State University 35,309 2,489 University of San Diego 5,300 2,000 * University of California at San Diego 16,187 4,700 f Military; The major concentrations of military population center around Camp * Pendleton, Miramar Naval Air Station, and other Navy Stations in the Central and Southbay areas of the cities of San Diego, Coronado, National City, Chula Vista, * and Imperial Beach. m Minority; Based upon 1980 Census data, the Hispanic population accounted for M 13.0% of the City's total population, Asian 4% and Blacks 3%. In 1988, the City had the following distribution; Hispanic 14%, Black 3%, and Asian 6%. " Farmworkers; The number of farmworkers in the San Diego Region is difficult to * estimate due to the number of undocumented residents. A large number of *« farmworkers account for a significant number of the homeless population, many of whom can be found in the hills and canyons of the North County. In 1980, the ** Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries and Mining industries accounted for 1.7% of the — City's total work force. Series 7 data shows that in 1988 the City had approximately 14% of its workforce employed in this industry. * Homeless; The homeless is another group that is difficult to quantify. However, " the San Diego County has an estimated 5,000 homeless individuals. s 156 1i Appendix B HCD DATA AND METHODOLOGY STATt W CAlffC*NIA OEOBGt DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Division of Housing Policy Development P. 0. Box 952053 Sacramento, CA 94252-2053* (916) 445-4728 June 27, 1989 Kenneth Sulzer Executive Director San Diego Association of Governments Security Pacific Plaza 1200 Third Avenue, Suite 524 San Diego, CA 92101 Dear Mr. Sulzer: Government Code Section 65584 requires the Department of Housing and Community Development to provide to SANDAG by July 1,1989, HCD's determinations of existing and projected housing needs. Those determinations, which are for your use in preparing a new regional housing needs plan, are enclosed. Attachment 1 contains county population and household estimates for January 1,1989 and population and household projections for July 1, 1996. These estimates and projections were prepared by the Department based on the most recent Department of Finance (DOF) figures. Attachment 2 contains county estimates of the number and percentage of households in each of four income groups for January 1, 1989 and July 1, 1996. The projected increase in the number of households by income group is also shown. The income groups "Very Low", 'Other Lower", and "Moderate" are defined in Health and Safety Code Sections 50079.5, 50093, and 50105, and Chapter 6.5 of Title 25 of the California Code of Regulations. "Above Moderate' households are households which do not meet the definitions for the other categories. Attachment 3 contains, by county, city, and unincorporated area, the most recent DOF population, housing unit, and household estimates. The figures show, as of January 1, 1989, the existing number of households and the current vacancy rates. Depending on your schedule, SANDAG may use the DOF January 1,1989 estimates as the base year data for its regional housing needs plan, or you may use the DOF estimates for January 1,1990, when those become available. Attachment 4 contains Basic Construction Needs for the period January 1, 1989 to July 1,1996. The attachment shows the components of the total construction need, including an existing need ('1989 Vacancy Need") which represents a current shortage of units. Attachment 4 also shows the total construction need by income group. 159 Kenneth Sulzer Page2 HI If you have any Information which Indicates that any of these determinations should be PI modified, please let us know, and we will be pleased to discuss it with you. Don Crow — of my staff (916-323-3175) is available to answer any questions you may have. HIIn 1988, we sent to you a copy of a regional housing needs planning manual — J "Development of a Regional Housing Needs Plan" — which we hope you may find helpful ** in preparing your new plan. Mr. Crow is available to answer any questions which you may have about the manual or preparation of your new plan. "* wi We look forward to cooperating with you in your preparation of a new regional housing needs plan. MI Sincerely, •iic{y ni Development M m Attachments NJJ:DRC e i I 160 ATTACHMENT 1 REGION: SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS JANUARY 1, 1989 AND JULY 1, 1996 January 1. 1989 July 1. 1996 County Population Households Population Households San Diego 2,418,176 876,728 2,781,900 1,002,500 Prepared by the Department of Housing and Community Development using Department of Finance (DOF) 1086 baseline population projections and DOF household projections published February 1089. The DOF projections were modified by differences between DOF's projections and estimates for January 1, 1989. Issued 6/89 161 ATTACHMENT 2 REGION: SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS BY INCOME GROUP JANUARY 1, 1989 TO JULY 1, 1996 Income Group January 1. 1989 Number July 1. 1896 Jan. 1989 to July 1996 Number {%\ Number Very Low Other Lower Moderate Above Moderate 201,647 (23) 149,044 (17) 184,113 (21) 341.924 (39) 230,575 (23) 170,425 (17) 210,525 (21) 390,975 (39) 28,928 (23) 21,381 (17) 26,412 (21) 49,051 (39) Total 876,728(100) 1,002,500(100) 125,772(100) The household projections were prepared by the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) using Department of Finance (DOF) household projections published February 1989. The OOP projections were modified by the differences between DOF's projections and estimates for January 1, 1989. The income group estimates were prepared by HCD using definitions contained in State and federal law as implemented by HUD and HCD. The definitions Involve relationships to median incomes and family •ize adjustment factors. These relationships and factors were applied to 1980 income data. Issued 6/89 162 ATTACHMENT 3 DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE ESTIMATES FOR JANUARY 1, 1989 163 REPORT » - PAGE 42 CONTROLLED CITY CARLSBAD CHULA VISTA CORONAOO DEL MAR EL CAJON ENCIN1TAS ESCONOIOO IMPERIAL BEACH LA MESA LEMON GROVE ^NATIONAL CITY OCEANS1DE POWAV SAN O1EGO SAN MARCOS SANTEE SOLANA BEACH TOTAL 62O3O 128O28 24594 5131 B64O2 631 2O 99006 2597O 63CO2 22748 56474 117589 43122 IO86593 33836 524O2 14694 SAN OPULATION HOUSE - HOLD 611O4 126222 16438 5101 83675 52541 97697 25333 51753 21967 . 4SOO3 1 16884 429 1O 1O3OO5O 33436 51 505 14496 VISTA 61743 61IO6 •**••»•»••«•***•••*•••••»••••••»•••••*•< TOTAL INCORPORATED 2O26484 1936121 •*•••*•»••*••••»•••«*••••••*•••••••••••< UNINCORPORATED 391692 361984 ••«••••••*«»•••••»•»»«••»•»••••••••••••« •••••••••••*•••«•*••••••»••••••••••••••« COUNTY TOTAL 241*176 22981OS DIEGO COUNTY POPULATION At*. BUSING EST JANUARY 1. 1989 GROUP QUARTER 926 1806 8156 3O 2727 579 I40S 637 1249 781 11471 17O5 212 56543 400 897 198 637 >•*••••»•*< 9O363 >••••»••**< 297O8 >•••***•**< >»•»••*»*•< 12O071 - SINGLE FAMILY - TOTAL DETACHED ATTACHED 26492 13213 2235 48691 9152 2648 34SO8 2O92S 4O8I7 9647 23791 6634 15269 48223 13629 427342 13972 17972 633O 25394 »»«••»•«••• 793436 »*••*•••••• 1285O4 »*»•••••*•• »•«*••»••»• 92194O 22369 42O1 1249 12939 11151 18667 41 1O 112O8 5651 6757 . 21912 1O341 2O6761 6111 1OO13 282O 121O1 »•••»»••• 381574 »**»»•*#* 84846 *•••*•••* •••••••»• 46642O 2969 647 249 1732 3191 1813 616 1061 492 8O9 6962 443 2517O 452 760 939 1MATES HOUSING - MULT 1-1 2 TO 4 2696 3784 694 302 1637 335O 26 IS 997 15O3 876 17OO 3781 372 41284 397 999 493 FAMILY - S PLUS 7349 16OO3 358O 814 16236 2532 14269 373O 9579 1575 5766 13866 1885 149O7* 3454 4OOO 2O38 CA. DEPARTMENT OF » DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCI PRINTED 04/25/89 MOBILE HOMES 999 3566 30 34 1964 7O1 3433 194 44O 40 238 2702 586 5O49 3558 22 1O 4O OCCU- PIED 25358 47006 756O 2383 33100 2O112 39458 8869 22781 6190 1SO62 439 1O 13414 4O6472 12611 17696 5752 X VACANT 4.28 3.46 17. 4O 1O.O1 4.O6 3.69 3.33 B.06 4.25 5.14 1.36 6.94 1.56 4.42 9.74 1.64 9.13 •NCE i IT PERSON PER HOUSE - HOLD 2.41O 2.665 2.174 2.141 2.527 2.612 2.473 2.656 2.272 2.662 2.968 2.639 3.199 2.522 2.651 2.911 2.52O 2019 1577 8092 16O5 23723 6.58 2.576 •*•**••*••••••**»•***•*•••••«••••••••»••••••••••••*•••••••••••• 51649 69057 263645 27411 755466 4.79 2.563 3638 7037 1993O 12853 121263 5.63 2.965 «••••»•••••••«•••••»•••»•••••••••»•••••»•••••••••••••••«••••«•• •••»•«••»•*•••**•*••««•»•*••*••••*•**••••••••••••*••••»••••*••• 55387 76O94 283775 4O264 876726 4.9O 2.621 cm mm a L.JI i ...... i ATTACHMENT 4 REGION: SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS BASIC CONSTRUCTION NEEDS JANUARY 1, 1989 TO JULY 1, 1996 BY COMPONENTS*: Household Increase 1989 Vacancy Need 1996 Vacancy Need Replacement Need 1989-1996 Total Housing Units 125,772 13,151 8,372 14,934 162,229 BY INCOME GROUP: Very Low Other Lower Moderate Above Moderate Total Housing Units 37,313 27,579 34,068 63,269 : 162,229 • Basic Construction Needs were calculated using the formulas shown in Appendix 3 of the HCD publication "Developing a Regional Housing Needs Plan." The following were used in the calculations: a homeownership percentage of 55.1, a vacant-not-for-sale-or-rent percentage of 2.5, and an annual removal rate of .002. 165 Appendix C OPINION OF STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL TO BE PUBLISHED IN THE OFFICIAL REPORTS m OFFICE OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL State of California JOHN K. VAN DE KAMP Attorney General m OPINION Of JOHN K. VAN DE KAMP Attorney General ROD1-IEY 0. LILYQUIST Deputy Attorney General No. 87-20G SEPTEMBER 29, 1987 THE IIOI50HALLE DAVID ROEERTI, MEMBER, CALIFORNIA STATE SENATE, has requested an opinion on the following questions concerning the determination of a locality's share of the regional housing needs by a council of governments: 1. Must the determination include both the existing and projected housing needs of the locality? 2. Must the availability of suitable housing sites be considered based upon the existing zoning ordinances and land use restrictions of the locality or based upon the potential for increased residential development under alternative zoning ordinances and laud use restrictions? 3. Must the income categories of sections 6910-6932 of title 25 of the California Administrative Code be used? .CONCLUSIONS 1. The determination of a locality's share of the regional housing needs by a council of governments must include both the existing and projected housing needs of the locality. 2. The availability of suitable housing sites must be considered based not only upon the existing zoning ordinances anc land use restrictions of the locality but also based upon the potential for increased residential development under alternative zoning ordinances and land use restrictions. 3. The income categories of sections 69\0-<>932 of title 25 of the California Administrative Code must be used. 87-2CH 169 ANALYSIS ' — 'The three questions presented for analysis concern— a city's or county's share of regional housing needs as determinljp by a council of governments and set forth in its general plaW. In analyzing these questions we preliminarily note that everv city and county operates under a comprehensive and long-teBt: general plan to guide its future physical development. (GolJ. Code, § 65300; Duenn Vista Garden Apartments Assn. v. City of Sar Dieoo Planning Deot. (1985) 175 Cal.App.3d 209, 2947p2 general plan is atop the hierarchy of local government regulating land use." f Neighborhood Action Group v. Countv _Trf Calavcras (1984) 156 -Cal.App.3d 1176, 1183.) Section 6530C states: ^1 "Each planning agency shall prepare and the legislative body of each county and city shall adopt a comprehensive, long-term general plan for the physical development of the county or city, and of any land outside Its boundaries which ' in the planning agency's judgment bears relation to its planning. Chartered cities shall adopt general plans which contain the mandatory elements specified in Section 65302." Section 65302 provides: "The general plan shall consist of a* statement of development policies and shall include a diagram or diagrams and text setting forth objectives, principles, standards, and plan proposals. The plan shall include the following elements: "(c) A housing element as provided in Article 10.6 (commencing with Section 65580). The 'housing element as provided in Article 10.6 (§S 65580-65589.8) must meet detailed requirements. Sect.% 65583 provides: ** •The housing element shall consist of an m identification and analysis of existing and projected g| .housing needs and a statement of goals, policies, quantified objectives, and scheduled programs for the preservation, improvement, and development of housing. The housing element shall identify adequate sites for 1.. All section references hereafter to the Government C are by section number only. 87-j 170 '• i housing, including rental housing, factory-built housing, and mobilehomes, and shall make adequate provision for the existing and projected needs of all economic segments of the community. The element shall contain all of the following: • "(a) An assessment of housing needs and an inventory of resources and constraints relevant to the meeting of these needs. The assessment and inventory shall include the following: "(1) Analysis of population and employment trends and documentation of projections and a quantification of the locality's existing and projected housing needs for all income levels. These existing and projected needs shall include the locality's share of the regional housing need in accordance with Section 65584. Section 65504 states: "(a) For purposes of subdivision (a) of Section 65503, a locality's share of the regional housing needs includes that share of the housing need of persons at all income levels within the area significantly affected by a jurisdiction's general plan. The distribution of regional housing needs shall, based upon available data, take into consideration market demand for housing, employment opportunities, the availability of suitable sites and public facilities, commuting patterns, type and tenure of housing need, and the housing needs of farmworkers. The distribution shall seek to avoid further ijnpaction of localities with relatively high proportions of lower income households. Based upon data provided by the Department of Finance, in consultation with each council of government, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall determine the regional share of the statewide housing need .at least two years prior to the second revision, and all subsequent revisions as required pursuant to Section 65508. Based upon data provided by the Department of Housing and Community Development relative to the statewide need for housing, each council of governments shall determine the existing and projected housing need for its region. Within 30 days following notification of this determination, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall ensure that this determination is consistent with the statewide housing need and may revise the determination of the council of governments if necessary to obtain' this consistency. Each locality's share shall ba determined by the appropriate . 87-206 171 •'• council of governments consistent with the criteria above with the advice of the department subject to the procedure established pursuant to subdivision (c) at least one year prior to the second revision, and at five-year Intervals following the second revision pursuant to Section 65588. "(b) For areas with no council of governments, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall determine housing market areas and define the regional housing need for localities within these areas. Where the department determines that a local government possesses the capability and resources and has agreed to accept the responsibility/ with respect to its ^ jurisdiction, for the identification and determination '.1 of housing market areas and regional housing needs, the *' department shall delegate- this responsibility to the local governments within these areas. ^ Section 65584 gives the Department of Housing & Community Development ("Department*} various responsibility! including the duty to define the regional housing need fo localities!' in areas not covered by a council of government unless it has delegated such authority to a local government For cities and counties located in areas served by a council o governments, the council performs this function. M y|| Section 65584 requires the Department or a council t. act when a housing element of a city or county is revise "pursuant to Section 65588.* The latter statute designate various dates for housing element revisions, including for arik covered by specified councils of governments: "(1) Local governments within the regional J jurisdiction of the Southern California Association of Governments: July 1, 1984, for the first revision and July 1, 1989, for the second revision. if *(2) Local governments within the regional jurisdiction of the Association of Bay Area • Governments: January 1, 1985, for the first revision, j|| and July 1, 1990, for the second revision. •(3) Local governments within the regional • jurisdiction of the San Diego Association of » 2. Throughout the statutory scheme "locality" is U||E interchangeably with 'community,*, "local government,* ar "jurisdiction" and means either the city or the county (or Francisco which is a city and county). (S 65502, subd. (a).) Ulf 87-21 172 1 i Governments, the Council of Fresno County Governments, the K.ern County Council of Governments, the Sacramento Council of Governments/ and the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments: July 1, 1985, for the first revision, and July 1, 1991, for the second revision." Thereafter a housing element revision is required "not less than every five years." (§ 65588, subd. (b).) The focus of the three inquiries is directed at both sections 65583 and 65584. Several well-recognized principles of statutory construction aid our analysis of these legislative enactments. In construing statutory language, we are to "ascertain the intent of the Legislature so as to effectuate the purpose of the law.* (Select Base Materials v. Board of Equal. (1959) 51 Cal.2d 640, 645; accord "People v. Davis (1981) 29 Cal.3d 814, 828.) "In determining such intent, the court 'turns first to the words themselves for the answer' [citations]." (Poopjn. v. Craft (1986) 41 Cal.3d 554, 560.) The words are to be giv&u "their ordinary and generally accepted meaning." (Peon.I e v. Castro (1985) 38 Cal.3d 301, 310.) Moreover, "legislation should be construed so as to harmonize its various elements without doing violence to its language or spirit." (Wells v. Marina City PrnngrbLas. Inc. (1981) . 29 Cal.3d 781, 708.) "Wherever reasonable*, interpretations which produce internal harmony, avoid redundancy and accord significance to every word and phrase are preferred." (Pacific Legal Foundation v. Unemployment Ins. Anneals Bd. (1981) 29 Cal.3d 101, 114.) "Interpretive constructions which render some words surplusage, defy common sense, or lead to mischief or absurdity, are to be avoided." {California Mfrs. Assn. v. Public Utilities Com. (1979) 24 Cal.3d 836, 844.) 1. Existing and Projected Housing Needs The first question posed is whether the council's determination of a locality's share is to include both the existing and projected.*/ housing needs of the locality. We conclude that it does. Section 65584 directs a council to "determine the existing and projected housing need for its region." The purpose of such determination is to calculate and apportion shares of this need to all cities and counties in the region. "Each locality's share shall be determined by the appropriate council of governments." (S65584, subd. (a).) Two components thus comprise the regional housing need: the existing housing need and the projected housing need. When ^ 3. A locality's "projected* housing needs would be those for the next five-year period. (S«« § 65583, subds. (b), (c).) . 87-206 . ' 173 shares of the regional housing need are apportioned to the ** communities in the area, each share contains both components. provision of the statute remotely suggests that one of the jm necessary components is to be omitted when apportioning shares! •Such construction of section 65584 is supported by t language of section 65503. As previously quoted, the latter ft statute requires that the housing element of a city or county • contain "a .quantification of the locality's existing and projected housing needs for all income levels." It then provides: "These existing and projected needs shall include locality's share of the regional housing need in accordance wit Section 65584." Hence the reference in section 65583 to "existing and projected housing needs" in conjunction with "tn[ locality's share of the regional housing need" clearly indies*!: that the latter incorporates both components. m One of the purposes of the legislation governing ^ housing elements is "[tjo ensure that each local government cooperates with other local governments in order to address M regional housing needs." (§ 65581/ subd. (d).) Regional housj: needs include both existing and projected needs. (§ 65584/ sJCc (a).) Both components are "addressed* by apportioning shares thereof to each community in the region. By so construing section 6558-1, we give each of its provisions moaning and car: out the apparent intent of the Legislature. In answer to the first question, therefore, we concJ||c that the determination of a locality's share of the regional housing needs by a council of governments must include both thji existing and projected housing needs of the locality. i| 2. Current Zoning Ordinances The second question concerns whether in making its 11 determination of a locality's share of the regional housing needs, a council of governments is to consider the availability of suitable housing sites based upon the existing zoning m ordinances and land use restrictions of the locality or upon alternative zoning ordinances and land use restrictions that would allow the potential for increased residential development!. We conclude that both existing and alternative zoning ordinance and land use restrictions must be considered. The council of governments is directed to determine jg> locality's share of the regional housing needs based upon the following criteria: <* .J"The market demand for housing, employment opportunities, the availability of suitable sites and public facilities, commuting patterns, type and tenure "1 of housing need, and the 'housing needs of farmworkers —* [and the avoidance of] further impaction of localities 07-J 174 •' ^ with relatively high proportions of lower income houaohoj.dc." (S 65504, subd. (a).) -We find no indication in section 65584 that current zoning ordinances and land use restrictions are to limit the factor of "the availability of suitable sites.* A housing site would be unsuitable based upon its physical characteristics, not because of some governmental control of an artificial and external nature. The planning process of sections 65503 and 65584 contemplates an identification of adequate sites that could be made available through different policies and development standards. Existing zoning policies would be only one aspect of the "available data" upon which the factor of "the availability of suitable sites* is to be considered under section 65584. To argue that this part of the general plan is required to conform to existing zoning practices would be anomalous and circuitous, since section 65860 requires the zoning ordinances of a locality to be consistent with its general plan. Subdivision (d) of section 655G4 emphasizes this fact by expressly providing that a local government's shares of the regional housing need is not subject to reduction, except in one narrow circumstance, by: *. any ordinance, policy, or standard of a city, county, or city and county which directly limits, by number, the building permits which may be issued for residential construction, or which limits for a set period of timo the number of buildable lots which may be developed for residential purposes." Our construction of section 65584 is consistent with the goals of the statutory scheme as a whole (§§ 65580-65589.8} and the particular requirements specified for housing elements (§ 65583). The legislation has as its primary purpose "to expand housing opportunities and accommodate the housing needs of Califomians of all economic levels." (S 65580, subd. (b).) Cities and counties are directed to "recognize their responsibilities in contributing to the attainment of the state housing goal." (S 65580, subd. (a).) Each local government is "to cooperate with other local governments and the state in addressing regional housing needs." (S 65580, subd. (e).) Allowing a city or county to prevent being allocated a share of the regional housing needs through restricted zoning ordinances would be contrary to the manifest intent of the Legislature.4-/ The housing element of a local government must specifically include: 4. The only authorized exception is a locality's "moratorium on residential construction for a set period of time in order to preserve and protect the public health and safety." (S G5584, subd. (d)(2).) 87-206 175 3 "'An inventory of land suitable for residential development, including vacant sites and 'sites having potential for redevelopment, and an analysis of the relationship of zoning and public facilities and services to these sites." (§ 65583, subd. (a) (3).) It is the "relationship* of current zoning ordinances that : be considered with respect to suitable housing sites. Mo hint c ji.mltnf.ion. may be found in the use of the term "relationship." Section 65583 also requires that a housing element include five-year program that will: "Identify adequate sites which will be made available through appropriate zoning and development "^ standards' and with public services and facilities •*( neciiiid to facilitate and encourage the development of a variety of types of housing for all income levels <* . . . ." (S 65583, subd. (c)(l).) J Such -language unmistakably contemplates that zoning ordinances and land use restrictions may require modification during th~ five-year period to accommodate a locality's projected housin needs. Consistent with this interpretation is the requirement that the five-year program: H •Address and, where appropriate and legally possible, remove governmental 'constraints to the maintenance, improvement, and development of housing." if (S 65583, subd. (c)(3).) W These 'governmental constraints* must be analyzed in detail i the housing element; the element must contain: •Analysis of potential and actual governmental constraints upon the maintenance, improvement, or development of housing for all income levels, including land use controls, building codes and their enforcement, site improvements, fees and other exactions required of developers, and local processing and permit procedures.' (S 65583, subd. (a)(4).) In sum, a local government must provide in its housin A element for the existing and projected housing needs of alii economic segments of the community. (S 65583.) In doing so, it is required to identify suitable housing sites. (S 65583, subdlf (a) (3).) The city or county must identify those sites "whicH will be made available through appropriate zoning and development standards* during the ensuing five-year period. ($65583, subd, (c)(l).) It must 'undertake to implement the policies anil achieve the goals and objectives of the housing element througfP the administration of land use and development controls." (S 65583, subd. (c).) The required consideration and evaluation of zoning changes necessary to meet the identified needs of th|J 87-20 176 1 community would be precluded by allowing existing zoning limitations to define what housing sites are "suitable." A council of governments thus would not be able to perform the task mandated for it without consideration of land uyus that are possible despite existing zoning restrictions. The "snitnble sites" factor to be considered by a council pursuant to section 65504 must be read in conjunction with the phrase "land suitable for residential development" of section 65583 that requires consideration of zoning limitations but is not limited to lands presently zoned for such development. In answer to the second question, therefore, we conclude that a council of governments must consider the availability of suitable housing sites based not only upon the existing zoning ordinances and land use restrictions of the locality but also based upon the potential for increased residential developmsnt under alternative zoning ordinances and land use restrictions when determining a locality's share of the regional housing needs. 3. Calculation of Income Levels The third question presented is whether a council of governments is required to follow the regulations (Cal. Admin. Code, tit. 25, §§ 6910-6932) of the Department defining income categories when determining a locality's share of the regional housing needs. We conclude that it must. Regulation 6926 states in part: "'Very low income households' means persons and families whose gross incomes do not exceed the qualifying limits for very low income families established and amended from time to time pursuant to Section 8 of the United States Housing Act of 1937. The qualifying limits are set forth in Section 6932. These limits are equivalent to 50 percent of the area median income, adjusted for family size by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development." (Cal. Admin. Code, tit. 25, S 6926, subd.(a).) Regulation 6928 provides in part: "'Lower income households' means persons and families whose gross incomes do not exceed the qualifying limits for lower income families as established and amended from time to time pursuant to Section 8 of the United States Housing Act of 1937. The qualifying limits are set forth in Section 6932. These limits are equivalent to 80 percent of the area median income, adjusted for family size and other adjustment factors by the United States Department of " 07-206 177 Housing and Urban Development." (Cal. Admin. Code, ? tit- 25, 5 6920; subd. (a):) •** Regulation 6930 states in part: *|«4 "'Moderate income households' means persons and families who are not 'lower income households' and ^ whose gross incomes do not exceed 120 percent of the | area median income adjusted for family size in *• accordance with adjustment factors adopted by the United States Department of Housing and Urban *! Development in establishing income limits for lower ^ income families. For purposes of this subchapter, the income limits are set forth in Section 6932." (Cal. „* Admin. Code, tit. 25, S 6930, subd. (a).) ]„!! These regulations are authorized by and are consistent wit! Health and Safety Code sections 50079.5 (lower incc*|< households), 50093 (moderate income households), and 50105 (vyp; low income households). • A council of governments must determine a localitH' share of the regional housing needs "of persons at all indSrr levels within the are-a." (S 65584, subd. (a).) Thi determination is to bo *[b]ased upon data provided by ffe- Department." (Ibid. l It is the Department that assesses Up- state housing needs upon which the regional housing needs ai calculated. The Department is also required to revise A: determination of regional housing needs made by a council thatffl: inconsis'tent with the state housing needs. (Ibid. 1 Ti Department follows state law (Health £ Saf. Code, SS 50079.! 50093, 50105; Cal. Admin. Code, tit. 25, SS 6910-6932)11. categorizing income levels for its calculations and the dl provided to the councils. For a council to "base" i determinations upon the Department's data, we believe that it» directed to use the income categories selected by the Departing No other definitions of moderate income, lower income, or ve low income may be found in state law governing this issue. We note also that the Legislature has specif icH referred to 'persons and families of low or moderate income, defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code" mr. mandating the review and revision of housing elements. (S 65118 subd.(d).) Requiring a council of governments to follow the irffc classifications established by the Legislature and DepartPe provides consistency between sections 65584 and 65588. Si interpretation of the terms of section 65584 facilitatesgjt administration of the state housing laws. Allowing each cov|§< of governments, on the other hand, to create its own ina classifications would be impractical and would defeat the purzx of meeting the state housing needs in a consistent and e£fem 87- 178 1 manner. Uniformity of classification allows the local governments "to cooperate with, other local governments and the state in addressing regional housing needs." (§ 65500, subd. (e).) In answer to the third question, therefore, we conclude that the income categories of sections 6910-6932 of title 25 of the California Administrative Code must be used by a council of governments when determining a locality's share of the regional housing needs. 07-206 179 . Appendix D STATE HOUSING ELEMENT LAW STATE HOUSING ELEMENT LAW — Article 10.6. Housing Elements Policy 65580. The Legislature finds and declares as m follows: (a) The availability of housing is of vital * statewide importance, and the early attainment of j decent housing and a suitable living environment 183 Intent Definiti for every California family is a priority of the highest order. (b) The early attainment of this goal requires the cooperative participation of government and the private sector in an effort to expand housing opportunities and accomcdate the housing needs of Californians of all economic levels. (c) The provision of housing affordable to low- and moderate-income households requires the cooperation of all levels of government. (d) Local and state governments have a responsibility to use the powers vested in them to facilitate the improvement and development of housing to make adequate provision for the housing needs of all economic segments of the community. (e) The Legislature recognizes that in carrying out this responsibility, each local government also has the responsibility to consider economic, environmental, and fiscal factors and community goals set forth in the general plan and to cooperate with other local governments and the state in addressing regional housing needs. (Added by Stats. 1980, Ch. 1143.) 65581. It is the intent of the Legislature in enacting this article: (a) To assure that counties and cities recognize their responsibilities in contributing to the attainment of the state housing goal. (b) To assure that counties and cities will prepare and implement housing elements which, along with federal and state programs, will move toward attainment of the state housing goal. (c) To recognize that each locality is best capable of-determining what efforts are required by it to contribute to the attainment of the state housing goal, provided such a determination is compatible with the state housing goal and regional housing needs. (d) To ensure that each local government cooperates with other local governments in order to address regional housing needs. (Added by Stats. 1980, Ch. 1143.) 65582. As used in this article: (a) "Community," "locality," "local government," or "jurisdiction," means a city, city and county, or county. (b) "Department" means the Department of Housing and Ccmnunity Development. (c) "Housing element" or "element" means the housing element of the comunity's general plan, as required pursuant to this article and subdivision (c) of Section 65302. (Added by Stats. 1980, Ch. 1143.) 184 «• Housing element 65583. The housing element shall consist of an content identification and analysis of existing and » projected housing needs and a statement of goals, policies, quantified objectives, and scheduled ** programs for the preservation, improvement, and development of housing. The housing element *** shall identify adequate sites for housing, «• including rental housing, factory-built housing, and mobilehomes, and shall make adequate <•» provision for the existing and projected needs of all economic segments of the community. The element shall contain all of the following: (a) An assessment of housing needs and an ** inventory of resources and constraints relevant m to the meeting of these needs. The assessment and inventory shall include the following: <** (1) Analysis of population and employment trends and documentation of projections and a ** quantification of the locality's existing and ^ projected housing needs for all income levels. These existing and projected needs shall «M include the locality's share of the regional housing need in accordance with Section 65584. '- (2) Analysis and documentation of household characteristics, including level of payment """ compared to ability to pay, housing characteristics, including overcrowding, and housing stock condition. — (3) An inventory of land suitable for residential development, including vacant sites - and sites having potential for redevelopment, and w an analysis of the relationship of zoning and *"" public facilities and services to these sites. ^ ' (4) Analysis of potential and actual governmental constraints upon the maintenance, — improvement, or development of housing for all income levels, including land use controls, *•* building codes and their enforcement, site w improvements, fees and other exactions required of developers, and local processing and permit «* procedures. (5) Analysis of potential and actual «• nongovernmental constraints upon the maintenance, improvement, or development of housing for all «•• income levels, including the availability of ^ financing, the price of land, and the cost of construction. ^ (6) Analysis of any special housing needs, such as those of the handicapped, elderly, large *• families, farmworkers, families with female heads of households, and families and persons in """ need of emergency shelter. 185 (7) Analysis of opportunities for energyconservation with respect to residentialdevelopment. (b) A statement of the community's goals,quantified objectives, and policies relative to the maintenance, improvement, and development ofhousing. It is recognized that the total housing needsidentified pursuant to subdivision (a) may exceed available resources and the community's ability to satisfy this need within the content of thegeneral plan requirements outlined in Article 5(commencing with Section 65300). Under these circumstances, the quantified objectives need not be identical to the identified existing housingneeds, but should establish the maximum number of housing units that can be constructed, rehabilitated, and conserved over a five-year tine frame.(c) A program which sets forth a five-year schedule of actions the local government is undertaking or intends to undertake to implementthe policies and achieve the goals and objectives of the .housing element through the administration of land use and development controls, provisionof regulatory concessions and incentives, and the utilization of appropriate federal and statefinancing and subsidy programs when available. In order to make adequate provision for the housing needs of all economic segments of the community, the program shall do all of the following* (1) Identify adequate sites which will be made available through appropriate zoning and development standards and with public services and facilities needed to facilitate and encourage the development of a variety of types of housingfor all income levels, including rental housing, factory-built housing, mobilehomes, emergency shelters and transitional housing in order to aeet the community's housing goals as identified in subdivision (b).(2) Assist in the development of adequate housing to meet the needs of low- and moderate- income households. (3) Address and, where appropriate and legally possible, remove governmental constraints to the maintenance, improvement, and development of housing.(4) Conserve and improve the condition of the existing affordable housing stock.(5) Promote housing opportunities for all persons regardless of race, religion, sex, marital status, ancestry, national origin, orcolor. 186 Unoodif led policy Uncodif led Policy The program shall include an identification of the agencies and officials responsible for the implementation of the various actions and the means by which consistency will be achieved with other general plan elements and conrunity goals. The local government shall make a diligent effort to achieve public participation of all economic segments of the community in the development of the housing element, and the program shall describe this effort. (Amended by Stats. 1984, Ch. 1691. Urgency; effective October 1, 1984; Amended by Stats. 1986, Ch. 1383.) Note: Stats. 1984, Ch. 1691, also reads: SEC. 1. The Legislature finds and declares that because of economic, physical, and mental conditions that are beyond their control, thousands of individuals and families in California are homeless. Churches, local governments, and nonprofit organizations providing assistance to the homeless have been overwhelmed by a new class of homeless: families with children, individuals with employable skills, and formerly middle-class families and individuals with long work histories. The programs provided by the state, local, and federal governments, and by private institutions, have been unable to meet existing needs and further action is necessary. The Legislature finds and declares that two levels of housing assistance are needed: an emergency fund to supplement temporary shelter programs, and a fund to facilitate the preservation of existing housing and the creation of new housing units affordable to very low income households. It is in the public interest for the State of California to provide this assistance. The Legislature further finds and declares that there is a need for more information on the numbers of homeless and the causes of homelessness, and for systematic exploration of more comprehensive solutions to the problem. Both local and state government have a role to play in identifying, understanding, and devising solutions to the problem of homelessness. Notes Stats. 1986, Ch. 1383, also reads: Sec* 3. The amendments to paragraph (1) of •ubdivision (c) of Section 65583 of the Government Code made by the act adding this section during the 1986 Regular Session of the Legislature shall require an identification of sites for emergency shelters and transitional housing by January 1, 1988, or by the next periodic review of a bousing element pursuant to 187 Regional housing needs Section 65588 of the Government Code, whichever ia later/ in order to give local govermentsadequate tine to plan for, and to assist in thedevelopment of, housing for homeless persons, if it is determined that there is a need for emergency shelter pursuant to paragraph (6) ofsubdivision (a) of Section 65583 of the Government Code.65584. (a) For purposes of subdivision (a) of Section 65583, a locality's share of the regional housing needs includes that share of the housing need of persons at all income levels within thearea significantly affected by a jurisdiction's general plan. The distribution of regional housing needs shall, based upon available data, take into consideration market demand for housing, employment opportunities, the availability of suitable sites and publicfacilities, comuting patterns, type and tenure of housing need, and the housing needs offarmworkers. The distribution shall seek to avoid further impaction of localities withrelatively high proportions of lower income households. Based upon data provided by the Department of Finance, in consultation with each council of government, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall determine the regional share of the statewide housing need at least two years prior to the second revision, and all subsequent revisions as required pursuant to Section 65588. Based upon data provided by the Department of Housing and Community Development relative to the statewide need for housing, each council of governments shall determine the existing and projected housing need for its region. Within 30 days following notification of this determination, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall ensure that this determination is consistent with the statewide housing need and may revise the determination of the council of governments if necessary to obtain this consistency. Each locality's share shall bedetermined by the appropriate council of governments consistent with the criteria above with the advice of the department subject to the procedure established pursuant to subdivision (c) at least one year prior to the second revision, and at five-year intervals following the second revision pursuant to Section 65588. (b) For areas with no council of governments, the Department of Housing and Community Development shall determine housing market areas and define the regional housing need forlocalities within these areas. Where the 188 Bousing element guidelines and state review the number of units specified as its share of the regional housing need would prevent the mitigation of that impact.(e) Any authority to review and revise a local government's share of the regional housing need granted under this section shall not constitute authority to revise, approve, or disapprove the manner in which the local government's share of the regional housing need is implemented through its housing program. (f) A fee may be charged interested parties for any additional costs caused by the amendments to subdivision (c) at the 1983-84 Regular Session ofthe Legislature reducing from 45 to seven days the time within which materials and data shall be made available to interested parties. (g) Determinations made by the department, a council of governments, or a local government pursuant to this section are exempt from the provisions of the California Environmental Quality Act, which is provided for in Division 13 (commencing with Section 21000) of the Public Resources Code. (Amended by Stats. 1984, Ch. 1684.) 65585. (a) Each local government shall consider the guidelines adopted by the department pursuant to Section 50459 of the Health and Safety Code in the preparation and amendrent of its housing element pursuant to this article. Those guidelines shall be advisory to each local government in order to assist it in the preparation of its housing element. (b) At least 90 days prior to adoption of the housing element, or at least 45 days prior to the adoption of an amendment to this element, the planning agency of a local government shall submit a draft of the element or amendment to the department. The department shall review drafts submitted to it and report its findings to the planning agency within 90 days of receipt of the draft in the case of adoption of the housing element pursuant to this article, or within 45 days of receipt of the draft in the case of an amendment. The legislative body shall consider the department's findings prior to final adoption of the housing element or amendment unless the department's findings are not available within the above prescribed time limits. If the department's findings are not available within those prescribed time limits, the legislative body may take the department's findings into consideration at the time it considers future amendments to the housing element. 189 Deadline for adoption Extension of adaption deadline Judicial standard of review Enfc nt of compliance with judicial action (c) Each local government shall provide the department with a copy of its adopted housing element or amendments. The department may review adopted housing elements or amendments and report its findings. (d) Except as provided in Section 65586, any and all findings made by the department pursuant to subdivisions (b) and (c) shall be advisory to the local government. (Amended by Stats. 1983, Ch. 1250 [effective January 1, 1984]; Stats. 1984, Ch. 1009.) 65586. Local governments shall conform their housing elements to the provisions of this article on or before October 1, 1981. Jurisdictions with housing elements adopted before October 1, 1981, in conformity with the housing element guidelines adopted by the Department of Housing and Community Development on December 1, 1977, and located in Subchapter 3 (commencing with Section 6300) of Chapter 6 of Part 1 of Title 25 of the California Administrative Code [repealed in 1982], shall be deemed in compliance with this article as of its effective date. A locality with a housing element found to be adequate by the department before October 1, 1981, shall be deemed in conformity with these guidelines. (Added by Stats. 1980, Ch. 1143.) 65587. (a) Each city, county, or city and county shall bring its housing element, as required by subdivision (c) of Section 65302, into conformity with the requirements of this article on or before October 1, 1981. No extension of time for such purpose may be granted pursuant to Section 65361, notwithstanding its provisions to the contrary. (b) Any action brought by any interested party to review the conformity with the provisions of this article of any housing element or portion thereof or revision thereto shall be brought pursuant to Section 1085 of the Code of Civil Procedure; the court's review of compliance with the provisions of this article shall extend to whether the housing element or portion thereof or revision thereto substantially complies with the requirements of this article. (c) If a court finds that an action of a city, county, or city and county, which is required to be consistent with its general plan, does not comply with its housing element, the city, county, or city and county shall bring its action into compliance within 60 days. However, the court shall retain jurisdiction throughout the period for compliance to enforce its decision. 190 Upon the court's determination that the 60-day period for compliance would place an undue hardship on the city, county, or city and county,the court may extend the time period forcompliance by an additional 60 days. (Amended by Stats. 1984, Ch. 1009.)Note: Stats. 1984, Ch. 1009, also reads: Uncodified policy SEC. 44. It is the intent of the Legislaturethat the term "substantially complies," as used in subdivision (b) of Section 65587, be given the same interpretation as was given that term by the court in Camp v. Board of Supervisors, 123 Cal. App. 3d 334, 348. Policy: 65587.1. (a) The Legislature finds and Increasing housing declares that local policies and programs which opportunities increase housing opportunities through a tax- exempt revenue bond program or through a requirement that the approval of a housing related project be tied to the provision of assistance for housing are consistent with the intent of this article. The Legislature further finds and declares that actions which have the effect of impeding or halting such policies and programs or the direct production of housing run contrary to the goals of increased housing opportunities and balanced commercial and residential development embodied in this article. (b) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, neither a mortgage revenue bond program subjectto subdivision (b) of Section 52053.5 of the Health and Safety Code nor a local approval, made prior to Nay 1, 1983, of a housing related project shall be invalidated due to the failure or alleged failure of a city and county to comply with this article, subdivision (c) of Section 65302 of the Government Code, or any regulations or guidelines adopted pursuant thereto, or any other provision of law requiring or claimed to require consistency with the housing element of a local general plan. For purposes of this section, a "housing related project" means (a) a residential project or (b) a nonresidential project, the local approval of which was conditioned upon the nonresidential developer (1) developing or rehabilitating or causing to be developed or rehabilitated housing units, or (2) providing funds for the development or rehabilitation of housing units, or (3) investing in a mortgage revenue bond program subject to subdivision (b) of Section 52053.5 of the Health and Safety Code, under a formula or guidelines adopted by the planning commission or local governing body of the city and county. For purposes of this section, "housing related 191 Periodic review and revision Deadlines for completing housing element revisions project" shall not include a project, the construction or development of which requires either the demolition or conversion of low- or moderate-rental residential units and the local approval of which does not provide for the replacement of such units and for the maintenance in such units of rents affordable to low- and moderate-income persons for a period of not less than 20 years. (Added by Stats. 1982, Ch. 312. Effective June 28, 1982.) 65588. (a) Each local government shall review its housing element as frequently as appropriate to evaluate all of the following: (1) The appropriateness of the housing goals, objectives, and policies in contributing to the attainment of the state housing goal. (2) The effectiveness of the housing element in attainment of the community's housing goals and objectives. (3) The progress of the city, county, or city and county in implementation of the housing element. (b) The housing element shall be revised as appropriate, but not less than every five years, to reflect the results of this periodic review. In order to facilitate effective review by the department of housing elements, local governments following shall prepare and adopt the first two revisions of their housing elements no later than the dates specified in the following schedule, notwithstanding the date of adoption of the housing elements in existence on the effective date of the act which amended this section during the 1983-84 session of the Legislature. (1) Local governments within the regional jurisdiction of the Southern California Association of Governments: July 1, 1984, for the first revision and July 1, 1989, for the second revision. (2) Local governments within the regional jurisdiction of the Association of Bay Area Governments: January 1, 1985, for the first revision, and July 1, 1990, for the second revision. (3) Local governments within the regional jurisdiction of the San Diego Association of Governments, the Council of Fresno County Governments, the Kern County Council of Governments, the Sacramento Council of Governments, and the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments: July 1, 1985, for the first revision, and July 1, 1991, for the second revision. '192 (4) All other local governments: January 1, 1986, for the first revision, and July 1, 1992, for the second revision. (5) Subsequent revisions shall be ocnpleted not less often than at five-year intervals followingthe second revision. (c) The review and revision of housing elements required by this section shall take into account any low- or moderate-income housing which has been provided or required pursuant to Section 65590. (d) The review pursuant to subdivision (c) shall include, but need not be limited to, the following:(1) The number of new housing units approved for construction within the coastal zone after January 1, 1982. (2) The number of housing units for persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code, required to be provided in new housing developments either within the coastal zone or within three miles of the coastal zone pursuant to Section 65590. (3) The number of existing residential dwelling units occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code, that have been authorized to be demolished or converted since January 1, 1982, in the coastal zone. (4) The number of residential dwelling units for persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code, that have been required for replacement or authorized to be converted or dsnolished as identified in paragraph (3). The location of the replacement units, either onsite, elsewhere within the locality's jurisdiction within the coastal zone, or within three miles of ths coastal zone within the locality's jurisdiction, shall be designated in the review. (Amended by Stats. 1984, Ch. 208. Effective June 20, 1984.) Legal effect 65589. (a) Nothing in this article shallrequire a city, county, or city and county to do any of the following: (1) Expend local revenues for the construction of housing, housing subsidies, or land acquisition. (2) Disapprove any residential development which is consistent with the general plan. (b) Nothing in this article shall be construed to be a grant of authority or a repeal of any authority which may exist of a local government Findings to reject ovals Action to challenge validity of project Affordable housing to impose rent controls or restrictions on the sale of real property. (c) Nothing in this article shall be construed to be a grant of authority or a repeal of any authority which may exist of a local government with respect to measures that may be undertaken or required by a local government to be undertaken to implement the housing element of the local general plan. (d) The provisions of this article shall be construed consistent with, and in promotion of/ the statewide goal of a sufficient supply of decent housing to meet the needs of all Califomians. (Added by Stats. 1980, Ch. 1143.) 65589.5. When a proposed housing development project complies with the applicable general plan, zoning, and development policies in effect at the time that the housing development project's application is determined to be complete/ but the local agency proposes to disapprove the project or to approve it upon the condition that the project be developed at a lower density, the local agency shall base its decision regarding the proposed housing development project upon written findings supported by substantial evidence on the record that both of the following conditions exist: (a) The housing development project would have a specific, adverse impact upon the public health or safety unless the project is disapproved or approved upon the condition that the project be developed at a lower density. (b) There is no feasible method to satisfactorily mitigate or avoid the adverse impact identified pursuant to subdivision (a), other than the disapproval of the housing development project or the approval of the project upon the condition that it be developed at a lower density. (Added by Stats. 1982, Ch. 1438.)65589.6. In any action taken to challenge thevalidity of a decision by a city, county, or city and county to disapprove a project or approve aproject upon the condition that it be developedat a lower density pursuant to Section 65589.5,the city, county, or city and county shall bearthe burden of proof that its decision hasconformed to all of the conditions specified in Section 65589.5. (Added by Stats. 1984, Ch. 1104.) 65589.8. A local government which adopts a requirement in its housing element that a housing development contain a fixed percentage of 194 affordable housing units, shall permit a developer to satisfy all or a portion of that requirement by constructing rental housing at affordable monthly rents, as determined by thelocal government. Nothing in this section shall be construed to expand or contract the authority of a local government to adopt an ordinance, charter amendment, or policy requiring that any housing development contain a fixed percentage of affordable housing units. (Added by Stats. 1983, Ch. 787.) Article 10.7. Low- and Moderate-Income Housing Within the Coastal Zone Requirements for 65590. (a) In addition to the requirements ofhousing Article 10.6 (commencing with Section 65580), the provisions and requirements of this section shall apply within the coastal zone as defined and delineated in Division 20 (commencing with Section 30000) of the Public Resources Code. Each respective local government shall comply with the requirements of this section in that portion of its jurisdiction which is located _ within the coastal zone. Replacement •housing (b) The conversion or demolition of existing ** residential dwelling units occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income, as ^ defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Coder •hall not be authorized unless provision has been made for the replacement of those ^ dwelling units with units for persons and families of low or moderate income. Replacement — dwelling units shall be located within the same city or county as the dwelling units proposed to — be converted or demolished. The replacement dwelling units shall be located on the site of *" the converted or demolished structure or elsewhere within the coastal sons if feasible, or, if location on the site or elsewhere within m the coastal zone is not feasible, they shall be located within three miles of the coastal zone. «• The replacement dwelling units shall be provided and available for use within three years from the *• date upon which work commenced on the conversion or demolition of the residential dwelling unit. ""* In the event that an existing residential dwelling unit is occupied by more than one person or family, the provisions of this subdivision shall apply if at least one such person or 195 affordable housing units, shall permit a developer to satisfy all or a portion of that requirement by constructing rental housing at affordable monthly rents, as determined by the local government. Nothing in this section shall be construed to expand or contract the authority of a local government to adopt an ordinance, charter amendment/ or policy requiring that any housing development contain a fixed percentage of affordable housing units. (Added by Stats. 1983, Ch. 787.) Article 10.7. Requirements housing for Replacement housing Low- and Hoderate-Income Housing Within the Coastal Zone 65590. (a) In addition to the requirements of Article 10.6 (ccntnencing with Section 65580), the provisions and requirements of this section shall apply within the coastal zone as defined and delineated in Division 20 (commencing with Section 30000) of the Public Resources Code. Each respective local government shall comply with the requirements of this section in that portion of its jurisdiction which is located within the coastal zone.(b) The conversion or demolition of existing residential dwelling units occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and SafetyCode, shall not be authorized unless provisionhas been made for the replacement of thosedwelling units with units for persons andfamilies of low or moderate income. Replacement dwelling units shall be located within the samecity or county as the dwelling units proposed tobe converted or demolished. The replacementdwelling units shall be located on the site ofthe converted or demolished structure or elsewhere within the coastal zone if feasible,or, if location on the site or elsewhere within the coastal zone is not feasible, they shall be located within three miles of the coastal zone. The replacement dwelling units shall be provided and available for use within three years from the date upon which work commenced on the conversion or demolition of the residential dwelling unit. In the event that an existing residential dwelling unit is occupied by more than one person or family, the provisions of this subdivision shall apply if at least one such person or 196 Appendix E HOUSING ELEMENT WORKSHEET HOUSING ELEMENT REVIEW WORKSHEET Locality_ Draft Adopted HCD Receipt Date. Contact Person Phonetf Coastal Zone •" Section numbers refer to the Government Code Article 10.6. Please provide the information referred to and the w element page number(s) where the information is located. Additional information regarding each statutory requireiEnt can be found in the HCD Housing Element Qjestions and Answers Paper on the page numbers following each requirement . - I. Housing Needs (65583(a)) (QA-6) ^ Owner Renter Total Page* A. Number of existing households and housing units (QA-7) 1. Households ____ ___ __ ___ ** 2. Housing units ___ _____ ** B. Lower income households overpaying (QA-6) «P for housing ^ 1. Total number ___ __ __ __ 2. % lower income _ C. List pages where special housing needs groups are analyzed and provide the estimated number of households: (QA-13) 1. Handicapped 2. Elderly 3. Large households 4. Farmworkers 5. Families with female head 6. Homeless 7. Other _ D. Number of overcrowded households (QA-7) E. Number of housing units needing rehabilitation (QA-7) F. Number of housing units needing replacement (QA-7) ^ G. Five-year projected new construction needs, including the locality's share of the regional housing needs as determined by COG or HCD; specify the time frame of the projections JM and enter the construction need figures in the table below. (QA-4) fb Five-Year Income Category New Construction Needs ** Very low (0-50% of median income) *• Other Lower (50%-80%) ^ Moderate (80-120%) , Above Moderate (over 120%) Total Units r* H. If the regional housing needs provided by the Council of Governments or HCD has been *• revised, has the COG or HCD accepted the revision? (65584 (c)) List page(s) where the revision is justified. (QA-4) I. Unless the employment and population trends are included in the regional housing needs *"" figures provided by the COG or HCD, list the page(s) where these factors are analyzed. -, 199 II. Land Inventory (Sections 65583,65583(a)) (QA-8) Summarize in the table below the information on sites suitable for residential development within the five year planning period of the element. List page(s) where this topic is discussed, including the discussion of availability of services and facilities for the sites identified in the land inventory. Page! « Zoning/permitted housing type Single family Multiple-family and rental Mobilehomes, mfd. housing, mobilehome parks Emergency shelter or transitional housing Sites with residential redevelopment potential (within time frame of element) Currently non-residential Other TOTAL Number of acres Density range (units/acre) Availability of services& facilities (e.g. infrastructure) •IDwelling unit capacity m— 3 i\ ! j i J 1 i 200 I I III. Constraints on Housing (65583(a)(4) and (5)) m List pages where the housing constraints listed below are discussed: Page # A. Governmental Constraints (QA-10) 1. Land use controls (e.g. zoning, growth controls, open space requirements) 2. Codes and enforcement (e.g. any local amendments to UBC, degree or type of enforcement) " -» 3. On/off-site improvements (e.g. curbing requirements, street widths, circulation improv) ^ 4. Fees and exactions (permit fees & land dedication or other requirements imposed onv*^ ^developers; *» 5. Processing and permit procedures (e.g. processing times, approval procedures) 6. Other governmental constraints B. Nongovernmental Constraints (QA-12) "* 1. Availability of financing *"* 2. Price of land — 3. Cost of construction ^ 4. Other nongovernmental constraints IV. Quantified Objectives (Section 65583(b)) List quantified objectives for the maximum number of housing units over the five year time frame of the element to be: (QA-16) "* A. Constructed — B. Rehabilitated •» C. Conserved V. Other Topics List pages where the following topics are discussed: A. Efforts to achieve public participation of all economic segements of the community in the development of the element (Section 65583(c)) (QA-33) B. Analysis of opportunities for energy conservation in residential development (Section 65583(a)(7)) (QA-15) C. Description of means by which consistency will be achieved with other general plan elements (Section 65583(c)) (QA-34) D. Evaluation and revision of the previous element according to the criteria of Section 65588(a) and (b): (QA-1) 1. "Effectiveness of the element" (Section 65588(a)(2)): A review of the actual result of the earlier element's goals, objectives, policies, and programs. The results should be quantified where possible (e.g., rehabilitation results), but may be qualitative where necessary (e.g., mitigation of governmental constraints). 2. "Progress in implementation" (Section 65588 (a)(3)): An analysis of the significant differences between what was projected or planned in the earlier element and what was achieved. 3. "Appropriateness of goals, objectives, and policies" (Section 65588 (a)(1)): A description of how the goals, objectives, policies, and programs of the updated element incorporate what has been learned from the results of the prior element. E. For Coastal Zone localities, list the pages where the required information regarding construction, demolitions and conversions within the costal zone is provided (Section 65588(C) and (d)). (QA-35) 201 f tm VI. Housing Programs (65583(c)). Summarize programs in the element. (QA-18) Program Purpose Program action(s)Agency responsible Time frame Page# Provide adequate sites (655S3 (c)(J) 1. Insure total dwelling capacity equal to new construction need (QA-22) 2. Provide sites suitable for a variety of types of housing for all income levels, including rental housing and manufactured housing (QA-22) Assist in the development of adequate housing to meet the needs of low and moderate income households (655S3(c)(2)) 1. Utilize federal and state financing and subsidies 2. Provide regulatory concessions and incentives (Qfc-26) Address and, where appropriate and legally possible, remove governmental constraints (655S3(c)(3)) 1. Land use controls 2. Building codes 3. Site improvements 4. Fees and exactions 5. Processing and permit procedures (QA-28) Conserve and improve the condition of the existing affordable housing stock (65583(0(4)) (QA-30) Program to promote equal housing opportunity (65583 (c) (5)) ' (QA-32) Other housing programs 202 Appendix F PERFORMANCE REPORT TABLES APPENDIX F SANDAG's annual report of "Housing Needs Performance" (1980-1988), assesses the region's performance in providing housing assistance to lower income households. The report helps jurisdictions monitor the implementation of their housing elements and Housing Assistance Plans (HAPS). The annual report, however, does not measure the housing needs or performance for moderate and upper income households (more than $27,600 for a family of four in 1988) nor the rehabilitation of existing units for these households. Although these issues are important components of the jurisdictions' housing elements, the annual report considers only assistance that produces additional housing for lower income households. The Summary Table compares for each jurisdiction the Housing Needs Performance to the Housing Needs Statement. The comparisons are made for the years 1980 to 1985, and for 1986 and 1987. The total assisted housing needs units for 1980 through 1985 in each jurisdiction are shown as a total (column 1) and a percent (column 2) of the assisted housing needs units provided for the region from 1980 to 1985. In addition, the Summary Table also identifies the Housing Needs Units assisted in 1986 and 1987 (column 3) as well as the percent of the Region's Housing Needs for 1986 and 1987 (column 4). Finally, comparisons are made between the Housing Needs Performance with the percent recommended in the Regional Housing Needs Statement (column 5). 205 Table F-l Summary Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 Jurisdiction Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* Santee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated* Urban County* REGION TOTAL Lower Income Affordable Housing Provided 1980-1985 322 719 15 6 331 29 417 254 97 197 338 315 67 3,082 270 129 5 434 2,069 (3,797) 9,096 Percent of Region Total 1980-1985 3.5 7.9 0.2 (0.06) 3.6 0.3 4.6 2.8 1.1 2.2 3.7 3.5 0.7 33.9 3.0 1.4 (0.05) 4.8 22.7 (41.7%) 100.0% 3 4 Lower Income Affordable Housing Provided 1986 & 1987 Guaranteed + 20 134 12 2 147 5 121 11 65 19 69 87 32 1,139 22 48 2 29 485 (687) 2,449 Potential 0 244 0 0 0 0 407 0 20 0 0 400 0 1,748 0 0 32 0 297 (329) 3,148 = Total 20 378 12 2 147 5 528 11 85 19 69 487 32 2,887 22 48 34 29 782 (1,016) 5,597 Percent of Region's Total 1986 & 1987 0.3 6.7 0.2 (0.03) 2.6 0.1 9.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.2 8.6 0.5 51.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 14.0 (18.0%) 100.0% Percent of Fair Share in Region 1986 & 1987 3.4 4.5 0.9 0.3 3.3 2.2** 3.4 0.7 2.3 1.0 1.4 4.2 2.0 45.8 1.4 2.4 0.6** 1.7 18.9** (33.4%) 100.0% * Communities participating in the Urban County Community Development Block Grant Program; "Urban County" totals are not included in "Region Total" to avoid double counting. * The fair share needs and goals were adopted by SANDAG before the incorporation of the Cities of Encinitas and Solana Beach. The figures for these cities were derived from the 1980 census and the SANDAG Regional Housing Needs Statement. Fair share figures for Encinitas and Solana Beach have been subtracted from the adopted figures for the M f^l;orfLJIedl^-. «aft P« £T* t^| 1S| «H «9 M I M I 1 € I / I I I I \ I 1 I I I I I I I 1 Table F-2 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* San tee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated * Urban County* REGION TOTAL * Communities 1 Housing Needs Provided to 1980 240 936 258 0 974 0 867 124 488 70 1,878 562 60 17,995 104 472 0 214 555 (2,097) 25,797 oarticiDatinc 2 Housing Needs Provided 1980 to 1985 322 719 15 6 331 29 417 254 97 197 338 315 67 3,082 270 129 5 434 2,069 (3,797) 9,096 1 in the Urban C.c 3 Housing Needs Provided in 1986 20 216 2 0 42 0 440 5 33 7 0 287 10 1,565 5 17 0 9 93 (168) 2,751 iimtv Commt 4 Housing Needs Provided in 1987 0 162 10 2 105 5 88 6 52 12 69 200 22 1,322 17 31 34 20 689 (848) 2,846 mitv Develnn 5 Housing Needs Provided 1980 to 1988 342 1,097 27 8 478 34 945 265 182 216 407 802 99 5,969 292 177 39 463 2,851 (4,813) 14,693 impnt Blnrk firai 6 Total Housing Needs Provided 1988 (1 + 5) 582 2,033 285 8 1,452 34 1,812 389 670 286 2,285 1,364 159 23,964 396 649 39 677 3,406 (6,910) 40,490 nt Program: 7 Total Housing Units 1988 25,379 47,696 9,021 2,641 34,222 20,504 38,942 9,496 23,632 8,475 15,219 45,418 13,130 415,248 11,220 17,905 6,273 22,929 125,876 (272,849) 893,226 "Urban Cou 8 Percent Housing Needs Provided of Total Housing Units 1988 2.3 4.3 3.2 0.3 4.2 0.2 4.7 4.1 2.8 3.4 15.0 3.0 . 1.2 5.8 3.5 3.6 0.6 3.0 2.7 (2.5%) 4.5% jitv" totals are no 9 Percent Housing Needs Provided of Region's Housing Needs 1986 & 1987 0.3 6.7 0.2 (0.03) 2.6 0.1 9.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.2 8.6 0.5 51.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 14.0 (18.0%) 100.0% t included in "Rei 10 Percent Fair Share in Region 1986 & 1987 3.4 4.5 0.9 0.3 3.3 2.2 ** 3.4 0.7 2.3 1.0 1.4 4.2 2.0 45.8 1.4 2.4 0.6 ** 1.7 18.9 ** (33.4%) 100.0% ?ion Total" to avoid double counting. ** The fair share needs and goals were adopted by SANDAG before the incorporation of theCities of Encinitas and Solana Beach. The figures for these cities were derived from the 1980 Census and the SANDAG Regional Housing Needs Statement. Fair share figures for Encinitas and Solana Beach have been subtracted from the adopted figures for the Unincorporated areas. Table F-3 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction San Diego Region 1986 & 1987 C"Jo00 Jurisdiction Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* Santee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated* Urban County* REGION TOTAL Housing Needs Provided 1986 & 1987 20 378 12 2 147 5 528 11 85 19 69 487 32 2,887 22 48 34 29 782 (1,016) 5,597 Housing Needs to Meet Two-Year Goal 226 296 60 20 216 150 226 46 152 66 94 278 132 3,040 90 156 40 112 1,248 (1,172) 6,648 Housing Needs to Meet Five-Year Goal 567 740 150 50 542 368 565 114 379 163 235 693 330 7,601 225 391 98 280 3,122 (5,858) 16,613 4 Percent Housing Needs of Region's Total 1986 & 1987 0.3 6.7 0.2 (0.03) 2.6 0.1 9.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.2 8.6 0.5 51.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 14.0 (18.0%) 100.0% Percent Fair Share in Region 1986 & 1987 3.4 4.5 0.9 0.3 3.3 2.2** 3.4 0.7 2.3 1.0 1.4 4.2 2.0 45.8 1.4 2.4 0.6** 1.7 18.9 ** (33.4%) 100.0% * Communities participating in the Urban County Community Development Block Grant Program; "Urban County" totals are not included in "Region Total" to avoid double counting. ** The fair share needs and goals were adopted by SANDAG before the incorporation of theCities of Encinitas and Solana Beach. The figures for these cities were derived from the 1980 Census and the SANDAG Regional Housing .Needs Statement. Fair share figures for Encinitas and Solana Beach have been subtracted from the adopted figures for the Unincorporated areas. mm mm tm i a mm Table F-4 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction (Household Type: Elderly/Family) San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* Santee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated* Urban County* REGION TOTAL 1 Housing Needs Provided For Elderly 186 559 8 4 165 13 811 113 60 122 216 152 19 1,036 63 42 32 145 963 (1,710) 4,709 2 Housing Needs Provided For Families 156 538 19 4 313 21 134 152 122 94 191 650 80 4,933 229 135 7 318 1,888 (3,103) 9,984 3 Total 1980 - 1988 342 1,097 27 8 478 34 945 265 182 216 407 802 99 5,969 292 177 39 463 2,851 (4,813) 14,693 4 Ratio Elderly/ Family 54/46 51/49 30/70 50/50 35/65 38/62 86/14 43/57 33/67 56/44 53/47 19/81 29/81 17/83 22/78 24/76 82/18 31/69 34/66 (36/64) 32/68 5 Elderly/ Family Needs (1985 HAPs) 17/83 26/74 32/68 13/87 22/78 4/96 30/70 9/91 28/72 17/83 11/89 21/79 17/83 23/77 24/76 17/83 5/95 26/74 19/81 (17/83) 18/82 Communities participating in the Urban County Community Development Block Grant Program; "Urban County" totals are not included in "Region Total" to avoid double counting. 209 Table F-5 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction Assisted by Local Programs* San Diego Region 1980 - 1988 Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* Santee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated* Urban County* REGION TOTAL Housing Needs Provided To 1980 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Housing Needs Provided 1980 - 1985 137 313 0 0 0 12 275 43 20 34 0 51 0 694 188 0 0 335 1,028 (1,777) 3,130 Housing Needs Provided 1986 & 1987 0 244 0 0 0 0 407 0 20 0 0 400 0 1,820 0 0 32 0 297 (329) 3,220 4 Housing Needs Provided Total 1980 - 1988 137 557 0 0 0 12 682 43 40 34 0 451 0 2,514 188 0 32 335 1,325 (2,106) 6,350 iii *Communities participating in the Urban County Community Development Block Grant Program; "Urban County" totals are not included in "Region Total" to avoid double count- ing. 210 I Table F-6 Housing Needs Performance Guaranteed San Diego Region 1980 through 1986 & 1987 1980 through 1986 1987 Jurisdiction Carlsbad* Chula Vista Coronado* Del Mar* El Cajon Encinitas* Escondido Imperial Beach* La Mesa Lemon Grove* National City Oceanside Poway* San Diego San Marcos* Santee* Solana Beach* Vista* Unincorporated* Urban County* REGION TOTAL Housing Needs Guaranteed 236 430 17 6 373 17 175 216 90 170 338 321 77 3,032 87 146 5 108 1,133 (2,218) 6,977 Total Housing Needs Provided 342 935 17 6 373 29 857 259 130 204 338 602 77 4,647 275 146 5 443 2,162 (3,965) 11,847 Percent Guaranteed 69.0 46.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.6 20.4 83.4 69.2 83.3 100.0 53.3 100.0 65.2 31.6 100.0 100.0 24.4 52.4 (55.9%) 58.9% Housing Needs Guaranteed 0 99 10 2 105 5 88 6 52 12 69 30 22 495 17 31 2 20 393 (520) 1,458 Total Housing Needs Provided 0 162 10 2 105 5 88 6 52 12 69 200 22 1,322 17 31 34 20 689 (848) 2,846 Percent Guaranteed N/A 61.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 15.0 100.0 37.4 100.0 100.0 5.9 100.0 57.0 (61.3%) 51.4% Communities participating in the Urban County Community Development Block Grant Program; "Urban County" totals are not included in "Region Total" to avoid double counting. Guaranteed: Housing Assistance for households that is guaranteed to be affordable (no more than 30% of thier income) to a lower income household regardless of their income (as opposed to housing that potentially could be affordable (e.g. based on rents) but does not guarantee that the household will spend no more than 30% of its income on housing). 211 HI Table F-7 Housing Needs Performance By Jurisdiction Section 8. Leases (Urban County)* San Diego Region 1988 Elderly Family Total ^ Chula Vista 54 165 219 "' Coronado 6 18 24 Del Mar 1 2 3 (ft ElCajon 53 142 195 • Encinitas 156 Escondido 42 122 164 m Imperial Beach 6 24 30 1 La Mesa 28 75 103 * Lemon Grove 10 23 33 _ Oceanside 000 if Poway 10 37 47 P San Marcos 10 28 38 Santee 16 55 71 "| Solana Beach 022 J Vista 15 46 61 ^ Unincorporated 130 393 523 *« 382 1,137 1,519 j "•Leased as of 1/1/88. f NOTE: Totals include remaining balance of previously reported allocations for two 1985 vouchers and one 1983 Moderate Rehabilitation J| contracts. Data provided by the Office of Housing and Urban jj Development (HUD), Los Angeles. 3 212 3 Appendix G FACILITY IMPACT FEES Table G-l Facility Impact Fees by Community Regional Housing Needs Statement City of San Diego 1988 Urbanized Areas Barrio Logan Centre City Clairemont Mesa Golden Hill La Jolla La Jolla Shores Linda Vista Mid City Midway Mission Beach Mission Valley Navajo North Park Ocean Beach Old San Diego Otay Mesa-Nestor Pacific Beach Pacific Highway Peninsula San Ysidro Scripps Miramar Serra Mesa Skyline Paradise State University Southeast San Diego TJ River Valley Torrey Pines S. University City Uptown Jper ADT ZPer 1,000 Sq. Ft. Residential (per unit) 920 400 1,050 1,820 1,230 1,245 1,145 1,880 1,760 1,590 2,307 1,320 1,920 1,480 1,110 980 2,270 180 2,510 1,875 3,326 950 970 970 2,430 2,240 1,910 290 800 Commercial Industrial Traffic1 Fire' 51 66 23 86 118 58 126 83 73 148 143 94 46 113 148 91 129 25 138 112 145 27 77 77 194 163 184 41 49 $ 0 0 5 55 55 0 20 5 0 0 65 5 40 0 30 20 40 0 25 0 63 30 30 30 25 0 0 0 0 Source: Construction Industry Federation - 1988 Regional Development Fee Survey 215 Table G-l (Contd) Facility Impact Fees by Community Regional Housing Needs Statement City of San Diego 1988 Urbanizing Areas Carmel Mountain Fairbanks Mira Mesa N. Mira mar Ranch N. City West North N. City West South N. City West JPA N. University City Otay Mesa Penasquitos Rancho Bernardo Sabre Springs Scripps - Miramar Sorrento Hills Tierrasanta Via de la Valle Residential (Per SFD) $ 259 7,224 8,175 n/a 7,630 7,630 8,710 5,668 2,975 7,900 854 3,380 2,450 5,855 2,672 1,408 Commercial (Per Acre) $ 0 22,382 40,771 0 31,853 31,853 0 228/ADT 48,602 47,400 1,077 10,299 48,371 38,542 14,361 0 Industrial (Per Acre) $ 0 0 8,000-16,690 13,944 29,576 29,576 0 228/ADT 12,369 0 308 6,505 29,159 30,355 0 0 School Fees In 1987, state law established maximum limits for school impact fees. Fee ceilings applicable through 1989 are: Residential: districts may charge up to $1.56 per square foot of habitable space. Carports, garages, overhangs, patios, walkways, accessory structures and similar areas are exempt. Senior housing, commercial and industrial: up to $ .26 per square foot. The fee authority provides that districts must first make a specific finding of impact and relate that to the fees assessed. Key Pbd: Provided by district ADT: Average Daily Trip EDU: Equivalent Dwelling Unit MFD: Multiple-Family Dwelling SFD: Single-Family Dwelling Source: Construction Industry Federation - 1988 Regional Development Fee Survey 216 m Appendix H HOMELESS FUNDING SOURCES Table H-l Funding Sources Regional Housing Needs Statement San Diego Region 1989 Services to the Homeless Department of Social Services San Diego Region Program AFDC Homeless Assistance Program m San Diego City Other Countym General Relief m San Diego City m Other County MB Food Stamps Non-Assistancem County Outstation Staff •i Contractor Outstationing Services m Emergency Shelters (3) HE *• Emergency Shelter Expansion Armories (East County/North County) ** Juvenile Residential Programs (5) t*~* Services to the Economically *" Disadvantaged Contractors (CAP) Food Need v Food Bank (North County) m Project Home Base Interfaith Shelter Network Cost of Volunteer Hours Dollar Amount (Annual) $6,483,600 (2,982,456) (3,501,144) 2,500,000 (2,075,000) (425,000) 1,298,481 50,592 29,089 393,572 20,845 20,000 581,336 177,000 2,280 24,000 50,000 30,000 109,352 Ocean Beach Case Management 20,000 SUBTOTAL $11,790,147 Source: Homelessness - County of San Diego Report 219 Number of Homeless Served 1,400 clients monthly 647 monthly 753 monthly 1,090 clients monthly 906 monthly 184 monthly 460 cases monthly 500 Preapplications (monthly) 1,259 clients 22,698 bednights/48 beds/ 3,000 clients 1,155 bednights/7 beds/ 234 clients 1,000 bednights 5,800 bednights to 1,182 clients 4,500 clients 5 agencies serving 373 clients 9,101 clients 1,450 contacts to 285 clients 6,800 bednights; 264 clients 520 clients Table H-2 Homeless Assistance Programs Sponsored or Co-Sponsored by the City of San Diego 1989 Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Project Title: Description: Community Shelter Project $60,000 (City, County, San Diego Housing Commission) A joint effort of the City, County, and the San Diego Housing Commission. This project is designed to enlist churches, synagogues, and community organizations to participate in sheltering homeless individuals during the cold/winter season. Each host facility provides shelter to 12-14 homeless individuals for a two-week period. The project staff provides technical assistance, the coordination of dates when the sites are to be open, and makes community presentations about the program. Emergency Response Plan for the Homeless On August 10, 1987, the City Council adopted Council Policy 000-50 entitled, "Emergency Response Plan for the Homeless". The policy is designed to prevent the loss of life during periods of extreme cold weather. This policy calls for the opening of a public facility to augment existing shelter providers when temperatures are forecast to reach life-threatening cold ranges. Project Title: Funding Level: Emergency Shelter Program $65,000 (2-year period - Emergency Shelter Grant Funds, San Diego Housing Commission) Description: The project, operated by Episcopal Community Services, is designed to assist homeless individuals by making a minimum of 9 double occupancy rooms available per month at their leased downtown facility. The period of residency is limited to 30 days. In addition to physical shelter, support services, such as job search/assistance, showers, clothing, and identification assistance, are an integral part of the program. 220 Project Title: Funding Levels: Description: Employment Assistance Program for the Downtown Homeless $220,749 (City and PIC/RETC) A joint effort of the City and the Private Industry Council/ Regional Employment Training Consortium (PIC/RETC) to provide employment services to the homeless through Episcopal Community Services. The program has three (3) components, identified as Tract I - Casual/Temporary Labor; Tract II - Pre- Employment Training; and Tract III - On-the-Job Training. Appropriate supportive services (mail and message services, transportation, identification assistance, shelter and clothing) are provided within each Tract. Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) $1,000,000 A Federal grant program which provides emergency assistance in the form of food and shelter. Funds are distributed to community agencies for approved shelter and food programs for the homeless. Project Title: Funding Level: Homeless Shelter Facilities Program $294,000 (2-year period beginning January 1, 1989 - Emergency Shelter Grant Funds, San Diego Housing Commission) Description: St. Vincent de Paul will renovate a warehouse attached to their existing shelter facility that will add a minimum of 75 new beds to their sheltering capacity. It is anticipated that the renovation work will be completed in time to accept residents in early 1989. The agency will offer supportive services to include: employment services; medical screening; referral resource counseling; financial planning; independent living skills counseling; clothing and hygiene services. 221 Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Housing Assistance $22,735 (City) A portion of this contract with the Community Service Center for the Disabled assists disabled clients (including clients who are disabled and homeless), in locating affordable and accessible housing through its Housing Assistance component. Info Line $328,715 (City, County, United Way) A joint effort of the City, County, and United Way. The City's portion of the contract maintains a telephone helpline service which is operational 5 days a week, Monday through Friday, between the hours of 5:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., and on weekends and holidays between the hours of 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m. The helpline provides lodging information as well as referrals to other agencies for emergency medical, food, or transportation services. Legal Aid Society $300,590 (City) This project provides legal services in civil and criminal matters to persons who cannot afford legal services. (Neighborhood House Association) Food Bank $75,000 (City) This project assists agencies in providing food to low income clients. m Mil 1 mm m 3 Ml J 222 Project Title: Funding Level: Description: San Diego Housing Commission $463,412 The Housing Commission provides funding for several homeless projects, including the St. Vincent de Paul Warehouse/Shelter Conversion Project, Episcopal Community Services Transitional Housing Project, and the YWCA Transitional Housing Project. Project Title: Funding Level: Description: Staff Assistance Project $100,000 (City, County, United Way) A joint effort of the City, County, and United Way. The project's goal is to provide assistance to the Regional Task Force on the Homeless so as to aid them in their endeavor to expand the number of emergency night shelter facilites available in the San Diego area. In addition, the project is charged with the task of planning and coordinating the delivery of services designed to assist the homeless population in San Diego County. Source: City of San Diego - Community Services 223 ADDITIONAL HOMELESS INFORMATION; |i The San Diego Coalition for the Homeless has recently obtained two vacant I parcels of federal property to construct temporary housing for homeless II families. The advocacy group received a 20-year lease under the Stuart B. McKinney Homeless Assistance Act, which will allow the construction of two *j multi-story transitional shelters for homeless families. The shelters will j each contain 22 living units, housing two to four family members each. The shelters are expected to be completed by Fall 1991 and will be located on _ Aero Road near Murphy Canyon and Stone Canyon Roads. In addition to j providing shelter, the program will include medical care and counseling, and *" will establish a fund to aid the homeless in acquiring first and last month's rent for more permanent housing. H i I I I 1 3 224