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RECOMMENDED ACTION:
1. Receive staff presentation on the 1990 City Council Goals and Objectives. .-I I c k aJ 2 0 c)
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Review existing goals and set new ones for the 1991 calendar year.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
The City Council adopted its 1990 Goals & Objectives on May 1 , 1990. Quarterly updates were p
made on each of the objectives established for the goals. Accomplishments for the fourth qu
1990 are included in the attached 1990 Goals 81 Objective Report. Selected highlights of 199C
incorporated in the overall staff report tonight when representatives from each of the follow
service areas will make presentations on significant accomplishments for 1990:
at the end of the second and third quarters of 1990 to keep the City Council informed on the p
Administration
Community Development
Cultural & Recreation
Safety Services
Public Works
At the City Council workshop to be held on Wednesday, December 19, 1990, following the Dep
Heads' presentation of last year's goals, the City Manager will present Carlsbad's Vision of t
Century, then the City Council will review its five-year Vision Statement and also the fiscal foreca
City Council will then set goals for 1991. After the City Council establishes its goals for 1991, !
return at a later date and present objectives to meet the 1991 goals for Council approval.
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c)al 3E3 The City Council Five-Year Vision Statement, and the Council Goals & Department Objectives I
mu the vehicle by which to set the overall City direction in achieving the desired end results. This I
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The graph below shows the Strategic and Tactical Values as the hub of the overall process, 1
perimeter linking the City Council Goals, specific Objectives, and the Operating Budget, ir
program/performance and the performance of management employees - Behavioral Anchorec
(BARS). With this process in alignment, it is likely the organization will achieve virtually anythinl
out to do.
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Performance Strategic and specific
(BARS) Values (MW
Appraisal Tactical Objectives
.5$ BUDGET 0: PROGWERFOFMANCE
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PAGE 2 OF AGENDA BILL NO.
EXHIBITS:
1, 1990 City Council Goals & Objectives.
2. City of Carlsbad Strategic Values.
3. City of Carlsbad Tactical Values.
4. Five-Year Vision Statement.
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3. - December 17, 1990
TO: CITY MANAGER
FROM: Fkance Director
BUDGET FORECAST. 1990.91 TO 1995%
In recent months the newspapers have been full of stones about the fiscal woes impacting
all levels of government. Big deficits at the national level have been followed by multi-
billion dollar deficits at the state level. County and city governments are cutting back and
laying off staff. Carlsbad's neighbors have been beset with major fiscal problems. The
country is supposedly entering a recession, and a possible middle east war looms over the
holiday season.
In light. of the uncertainty in the world and local economies, it may be prudent to spend
some time reviewing the City's budget status for 1990-91 and budget projections for, the
next five years with the Council. The Council workshop scheduled for December 19,1990
provides an opportunity for Council and staff to review the current financial status of
Carlsbad as well as check assumptions about the City's future fiscal condition.
The staff has prepared a small computer model that allows us to take our assumptions
about economic activity, growth, inflation, and other factors and translate these into
projected revenues. We can also apply assumptions to the cost of maintaining current
operations plus the costs associated with staffing new programs and growth management
demands.
Attached to this memo are the products of this model. These will be the basis of our discussion with the Council at their workshop meeting. Attached are the following
schedules and tables:
1. General Assumptions - This table includes most of the pertinent assumptions
that have gone into forecasting revenues and expenditures for the general
fund for the next five years.
2. Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast provides a summary of the major General Fund revenue sources. By applying the assumptions found in the
first table we can begin to get a picture of how the revenue sources for the
City will grow in the future.
3. Expenditure Forecast - Using the current 1990-91 budget as a base, we have
projected the demand for general funds through 1995-96. The budget has
been broken into recurring costs on the first page of the expenditure section,
followed by new programs implemented by Council and the demands created
by building capital projects related to the growth management program.
0 0
f 4. Projected Net Revenue (Deficit) - The last page of schedules provides a look
at the "bottom line" for this year and the years to come. The City Council has always been conscious of the need to balance the budget and to look
forward past the current fiscal year when making budget decisions. This
schedule provides a quick summary of the future fiscal position based on the
scenario used to run the model.
5. Charts and Graphs - The staff will provide a short presentation to the Council
at the December 19 workshop using a series of charts and graphs. These
visual aids have been included in this packet to give the Council a preview
of the presentation.
ASSUmDtiOllS
Since the picture we create of the future is based on a series of assumptions made at the
present, it is necessary to have some confidence in their validity. The following section provides a brief description of the key assumptions and how they are used in the model,
Housing and Non-Residential Development
Development activity is a major driver of both revenues and expenditures for the City. The
model uses assumptions about the rate and value of both residential and non-residential
development to project fee revenues and a portion of the property tax revenues. In general
the model assumes that residential development will gradually increase from the present
level of about 700 units per year to 1,200 units per year. Commercial and office building
construction will increase from about 440,OOO sq. ft. this year to around 700,000 sq. ft.
per year by 1992-93.
The rate of development and the value of each unit constructed are based on data gathered
from the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce Economic Resear& Department and
the City's growth management system. According to the Economic Research Department,
the housing market has softened somewhat but is not expected to be as weak as the rest
of the state or nation. In addition, the Carlsbad houshg market has been ardflcklly
suppressed for several years while the growth management program was put into place.
The expectations are that some housing development will occur although not at the levels
reached in the pre-growth management era.
The value assumptions are based on information provided by the San Diego Union in their
monthly survey of housing market prices. The median market values used in the model
are considered conservative when compared to the expected selling prices quoted by the
various developers who will be able to produce new housing in the next few years. Single
family housing prices are set at $240,000 per unit in the model, however the market price
for much of the new development in Aviara, Lyon Communities (Calavera Hills) and
Fieldstone are all near or above $300,000 per unit.
2
A a 0
In addition to housing &d commercial/industrial development, the City will benefit from
the construction of the Four Seasons Resort in the Aviara project. This project will bring
about 450 new hotel rooms into the Carlsbad tourist market in 1992-93. The financial
value of this hotel can be measured in additional transient occupancy tax (TOT) and sales
tax revenue. The model assumes that the hotel begins operation in the summer of 1992
with an average room rental rate of $125 per night (city wide). It Mher assumes that
about 60% of all rooms will be occupied. Both of these assumptions are considered
conservative based on information form Laventhol and Horwath, an accounting firm
specializing in the hotel industry.
Economic Assumptions
Many of the City's revenues and expenditures are sensitive to inflation. The model
The primary assumption is the rate of general inflation to be experienced by the country
and the region in the next five years. The Economist magazine prepares a survey
consisting of more than 100 economists around the world to create a forecast of inflation
for the US and other countries. In addition, Money Magazine prepares an independent inflation forecast. Both of these sources limit their forecasts to one year. For 1991-92 an
inflation rate of 5% has been used based on these sources.
Predictions of future inflation rates are more difficult to tie down. The uncertainty in the
economy, the predictions of little or no real growth in the GNP and the unsettled state of
peace in the oil producing countries of the middle east combine to suggest a picture of
higher inflation rates. However, the Wall Street Journal predicted in a recent article that
the Fed would move to reduce interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy, thereby
keeping inflation at lower levels. The same article predicted that if a middle east
settlement could be reached fairly rapidly the economy would show an upturn stronger
than anyone had expected. This could soften the effects of the recession.
The model has assumed that general inflation can be kept under control at about 5% for
1990-91 and 1991-92, with an increase to 8% in 1992-93, then dropping to 6% in the final
years. This bump is based on the assumption that as the economy recovers from the
recession, 18 to 24 months from now slightly higher inflation can be expected.
The inflator used for City fee revenues exceeds the inflation rate slightly reflecting the
continued effort to bring City fees closer to full cost recovery.
During the presentation on December 19 we can spend time on other factors included in
the assumption section of the model if Council has further interest.
Revenues
The assumption section of the model drives the revenue section by relating actual revenues
the process used to forecast some of the primary revenue sources in the general fund.
incorporates a variety of inflators, used as necessary to predict levels of income or expense.
in past years with assumptions to predict future revenues. The following section describes
3
e 0
TaxeS
Property tax, sales tax and TOT represent about half of the total revenue received by the general fund. The treatment of these tax sources is therefore of primary importance to the
usefulness of the model.
Property tax revenue is projected using a fornula that uses 1989-90 revenue as a base.
We then add to the base the Proposition 13 inflator of 2%, taxes from assessed valuation
increases due to new construction, and increased tax revenue generated by property
revaluations resulting from resales. The 1990-91 base is the actual opening charges
assessed by the county which will be payable to the City.
Sales tax revenue is calculated using 1989-90 actual revenue, increased for inflation, and
new revenue generated by new construction of commercial/industrial buildings. The model
has also been modified to produce a revenue prediction that is slightly more conservative
than would result from this calculation. Sales tax is very volatile and can respond to the
state of the economy fairly rapidly. If the recession deepens or has a greater effect on the
San Diego region than is forecast by the Economic Research Department of the Greater San
Diem' Chamber of Commerce sales tax could come in below the figures shown in the
model.
Transient occupancy tax (TOT) revenue is dependant on the health of the tourist industry.
According to Laventhol and Horwath the industry has been slow in most San Diego
the Four Seasons Hotel near Batiquitos Lagoon. This 450 room facility will produce more
than $1 million in TOT revenue in 1992-93 and increasing amounts in later years. No
major growth is projected for the remainder of the hotel market in Carlsbad during the
period covered by the model. Again, this is considered to be a conservative approach to
a very volatile market. A healthy economy will produce more revenue than is calculated
by the model.
FeeS
There is a direct relation between the level of development activity and the fee revenue
received by the City. The modest increases in development included in the model will
provide a significant increase in fee revenue in the areas of building permits, engineering
fees and planning fees. The model predicts increases of as much as 22% for development
related fee revenues in 1991-92 and 30% in 1992-93. These increases are a direct result
of predicting development rates of 900 housing units in 1991-92 and 1,200 units in 1992-
93. tn addition some of this increase will result from the Citfs continuing effort to bring
development fees up to full cost recovery levels.
Other revenue sources are also included in the model and can be covered for the Council
in the December 19th staff presentation at the Council's direction.
markets for some time. The major factor affecting the TOT revenue is the construction of
4
e 0
ExDendi-
The spending portion of the model is divided into two sections; the minimum costs
capital projects required by growth management. The assumptions in the model are used
to drive ongoing costs, while the new programs and capital operating costs are estimated
individually with the assistance of the department involved in the project.
required to simply maintain last years effort, and the cost to operate new programs and
OngOingEKpendim
Salaries represent about 60% of the total general fund budget. Salaries are driven by merit
increases, salary adjustments, changes in fringe benefit costs, and changes in the total
number of city staff positions. The projections for salary increases in each year represent
the total effect of all changes in salary related factors.
The recurring maintenance and operating (M&O) costs are lumped together for ease of
manipulation. These costs include expenditures for power, telephone, fuel, vehicle
maintenance and repair, supplies, and other basic support costs. The model assumes that
these costs should be allowed to increase at the rate of general inflation if funds are available. In years where funds are not available, the rate of increase for recurring M&O
expenses is reduced. In 1991-92 the rate of increase is held to about 3.5% instead of the
general inflation rate of 5% due to the inability to fund full cost increases from available
revenues. In later years M&O costs are allowed to increase at the full cost of inflation.
The Other Expenditures category includes programs that may require special treatment
during the review of the budget. This category includes comhty programs, leases and
bond payments, professional services and consultants, mandated programs, and the
budgeted contingency account. Each item has received special consideration in the model.
Many of these programs are not under the direct control of the Council and are therefore
not considered discretionary programs. The largest change in this category is in the
contingency account which, for model purposes, totals 4% to 5% of the total general fund
budget (not including the contingency account). The contingency for 1991-92 has been
reduced to 4% because of insufficient revenue to provide for full funding.
New Programs and Capital Improvement Projects
The effect of new programs and capital projects has long been an important part of the
Council’s budget considerations. The model brings together the costs of new programs and
capital projects to allow Council to see the fiscal impact of a wide range of actions over
time. During 1991-92 the City has committed to about $1.2 million in new costs. This
increase represents about 2.5% of the total general fund budget. In 1992-93 new programs
will grow in cost to $2.3 million or about 4.4% of the total budget. The staff report will
focus on the new programs and capital project operating costs to emphasize the importance
of the fiscal side of both operational and growth management decisions.
5
'.
I e
The Bottom Line 0
The general fund will continue to have a balanced budget both in the current year and in
each of the five fiscal years included in the model. However, there is vast difference
between having a balanced budget and being able to fund all operations at an optimal
level. Below is a summary of the actions taken to balance the projected budget for 1991-
92:
M&O expenses d be limited to a 3.5% increase over the 1990-91 budget.
0 Capital outlay (equipment purchases) will be held to a lower level than in
0 Staff additions will be held to an extremely low level - a total of 8 new
employees - 4 safety, 3 general and 1 library employee for the new library
facility.
0 Additional revenues of $1.6 to $2.5 million would be required to fund all
0 New programs or additions requiring funding over and above those included
past years - $500,000 total instead of the $1.1 don budgeted in 1990-91.
operations at current service levels
in the model will be considered only if a financing source can be provided as
part of the program
Balancing budgets in 1992-93 through 1995-96 becomes somewhat easier as the City's
revenue base grows. The addition of the Four Seasons Hotel falls into 1992-93, the same
year the City requires an additional $1.2 million to operate the new main library. There
are about 25 employees to be added to the staff in 1992-93,15 of which will be staffing
the library. Staff increases will continue to be held to low levels as long as the current
economic picture exists.
Carlsbad has passed through a phase where staffing increases have been mandated to fully
staff the growth management process in engineering and planning, six fire stations, and an
additional police beat. "he City has taken on many new programs ranging from
discretionary actions such as the purchase of Hosp Grove to mandatory programs including
paying the county for booking fees and property tax collection, and paying the federal
government social security costs on all part time employees. It is unlikely that the next five
years can support increases of the magnitude as have been seen in the last five years.
Carlsbad continues to be fiscally sound and can remain that way into the future with the
cooperation of the Council, the residents and the staff. This long range look is intended
to help us plan for the future and to avoid pitfalls along the way. The City is well situated
to face a brief recession, although a long and deep recession will change the economics of
every local government in the state including Carlsbad.
Serious damage could be done to our budget position if the State attempts to solve its
budget problems by using local government revenues such as the motor vehicle in-lieu fee
or the other state subventions.
6
0 0 The Council has always viewed financial stability as a vehicle that allows us to provide top
quality services to our residents and visitors. This review emphasizes the need to be even
more conscious or the cost of progr and the long range fiscal effects of the Council's
decisions. fl $(.@ ,.
J %F. ELLIOpIT /
y .t As 'stant City Manager
Ass tat Finance Director
Bu et Manager
unity Development Director
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I CITY OF CARLSBAD
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Dwelling Units
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
..................
.................
88-89 89-96 06-01 91-92 92-93 93-04 94-95 95-96
Fiscal Year
rn Residential Units
I I
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Fiscal Year Ended June 30
rn Population a CPI
CPI figurer are for LA area
15
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a
I
CITY OF CARLSBAD
PROPERTY TAX
Millions of Dollars 25 I
20
15
10
5
0
,
i
84-5 85-6 86-7 87-8 88-9 89-90 90-1 91-2 92-3 93-4 94-5 95-6
Fiscal Year
I I ~~ ~~
I ~ ~~
CITY OF CARLSBAD
SALES TAX 1985 TO 1996
~
16
w 0
i
CITY OF CARLSBAD
TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX 1985 TO 1996
Millions of Dollars 71 I
CITY OF CARLSBAD
GENERAL FUND REVENUES 1985 TO 1996
Millions of Dollars 70 1 I I
84-5 85-6 86-7 87-8 88-9 89-90 90-1 91-2 92-3 93-4 94-5 95-6
Fiscal Year
I 1
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CITY OF CARLSBAD 1990-91 BUDGETED EXPENDITURES
Salaries/Benefits
$0.7 2%
- . .. ..
\ -
Recurring M&O
$10.1 22%
I
CITY OF CARLSBAD
CITY LIBRARY PROJECTED EXPENDITURES
CITY LIBRARY COSTS NEW STAFF
1991-92 $400,000
1992-93 1,168,000
1 *
15
1993-94 1,600,000 0
1994-95 1,730,000 0
1995-96 1,900,000 0 I I Assumes first year full staffing.
Initial staffing levels yet to be determined.
18
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CITY OF CARLSBAD
PARKS PROJECTED EXPENDITURES
PARK COSTS COMMENTS
Larwin
1992-93 1 15,000
1993-94 120,000 1994-95 130,000
1991-92 $94,500 Open 11/91 - 3 staff
1995-96 135,000
Alta Mira
1993-94 120,000 Open 1/94 - 5 staff
1994-95 205,000
1995-96 215,000
-
I
CITY OF CARLSBAD
PARKS PROJECTED EXPENDITURES
PARK COSTS COMMENTS
Alga Norte
1994-95 36,000 Open 1/95 - 1 staff
1995-96 45,000
Zone 19
1994-95 41,000 Open 4/95 - 2 staff
1995-96 90,000
Carrillo Ranch
1995-96 60,000 Open 7/95 - 1 staff
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CITY OF CARLSBAD
OPERATING COSTS - NEW STREETS
FY OPRTN'L STREET 1ST YR $
1991-92 PAR/ECR to Bs. Pk. 38,000 1991-92 Tamarack Ave 8,000
1992-93 Cannon Rd. 35,000
1994-95 La Costa Ave. 39,000
-
I
1 City of Carlsbad
General Fund Expenditures
1982 to 1996
70
60 - ........... .- .......- ............ -- ------_--.- --._-._ ........ _.. .....................................
Million Dollars
50 -..-........................-..-......-A -.t".. . .....-....... ................. .....................
40 ----.-- ................................................. ...................................
30 ............... _._._.. Est.imate ................... -.-.-.- ......... -.-----....----.-_._. ._. ...._............... .. ../
"
20
Fiscal Year Ended June 30
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
5 .............. '1. ............................ ........-.. 1 0
" ................................... .."" .....................................................................................................................................
" ..............................................................................................
0 I I I I I 1 I I 1 I 1. I I
* Actual Exp - Estimated Exp
L I
20
-
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J
I
City of Carlsbad
General Fund Revenues and Expenditures
1982 to 1996
Million Dollars 70 1
50 _..... .................
30 _ ..........................................
........................................... ..
0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I
Fiscal Year Ended June 30
- Actual Revenue
-+ Actual Exp
-+ Estimated Revenue
" E8tlmated Exp
I I
I
City of Carlsbad
General Fund Revenues and Expenditures
1991 to 1996
Million Dollars ' 70 I "I I
._----.- .". ". .............. .-. .................... ....".... ............................... ._ ..._. ..-. ........................ _...... ..... ....-........ ....... .".
...... ............_. .-. ___ ".. ........................................ ......................... .. .................................. ...................................................
I 1 I I
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Fiscal Year Ended June 30
+ Estimated Revenue + Estimated Exp
I I ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~~~
21
* w - I .
City of Carlsbad
General Fund Revenues and Expenditures
Excess or Deficit Each Fiscal Year
7
5 -. ........
.....
..........................
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 92 94 05 96
Fiscal Year Ended June 30
+- Variance
City of Carlsbad
New Programs 1992 to 1996
Fiscal Year
M New Programs a New Capital Facility
22
(I.
.,
i I
I
ax @
FIVE YEAR VISION STATEMENT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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Leader in the delivery of municipal services.
Maintain small town village spirit.
Continue to make our citizens proud of their City, themselves, the City Council and City staff as Carlsbad pursues its role as a leadership community.
A leader and participant in local and regional planning issues.
Make a difference in intergovernmental relations on the national, state and local levels by being a leader and contributor on issues confronting local government.
Address environmental issues, including impacts on:
- beach erosion - air qual i ty - resource conservation - water quality - offshore oil drilling
Improved circulation and transportation systems.
Reflect the General Plan and the Growth Management Plan, which result in a better qual i ty of 1 i fe while managing growth.
0 Eliminate political attitudes from land use decisions
0 Counci 1 working cooperatively in an open government on
and work for the best interests of Carlsbad.
all issues for the betterment of the community, keeping in mind what is best for Carlsbad.
0 Have a City Council which understands a1 1 aspects of municipal
0 Have a City Council which accepts responsibility for
services, with the focus on major policy issues.
the efforts of the City.