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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1992-03-03; City Council; 11581; REVIEW CONSULTANT REPORT ON FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL PLAN3 U 0 n a, 5 a al u u ad G g N 1 m 0 m r a k a, k a a L, rd I4 u 0 z 0 a 1 6 8 z 3 f 7 CIy(i OF CARLSBAD - AGEW BILL AB # /!I Gpi TITLE: DEPl MTG. 3/3/92 REVIEW CONSULTANT REPORT ON FISCAL CITY CITY DEPT. F1N IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL PLAN RECOMMENDED ACTION: Accept and file report. ITEM EXPLANATION: On April 3, 1990, the City Council approved by minute motion the solicitatic of proposals to perform a fiscal impact analysis of the General Plan. C November 20, 1990, the City entered into an agreement with Tischler ar Associates to perform the fiscal analysis. The analysis is now complete and sta and Paul Tischler of Tischler and Associates would like to present the results. The fiscal analysis of the General Plan consisted of three major elements: 1) a analysis of market values of property, development types, and the rate at whic new development can be expected to be absorbed, 2) the collection of servic level/expenditure information and revenue assumptions and 3) entering a pertinent assumptions into a computer model of which the City now lx possession for its own use. The fiscal impact analysis model uses as its base the General Plan, the Growt, Management Plan and the City's 1990-91 budget/service levels. These in tun result in assumptions which are used to model revenues and expenditures. Th model assumes that future demographic and economic trends resemble the recen past and that there is no major recession. Also, the model uses constant 1991 dollars. Two alternatives were tested within the model: 1) the Optimistic anc 2) the Achievable. The primary difference between the two scenarios is tht assumption that Carlsbad will have two new major retail facilities, a shoppin1 mall and an automobile mall in the Optimistic version. The results of the analysis span a twenty year period, and indicate that projectea growth will generate net revenues to the General Fund in nineteen out of tweng years in the Optimistic Scenario, and eighteen out of twenty years in the Achievable Scenario. The chart on the next page demonstrates the net impact oj both scenarios. As can be seen the margin of revenue over expenditures is quite narrow during the first five years of the model. At year 20, or 2011, under the Achievable Scenario, the net result shows a $7.8 million difference of revenues over expenditures, which is equivalent to 12% of the operating budget. m. .~ .- Page Two of Agenda Bill No. Carlsbad General Fund Millions of 91 Doh Optimistic - Achievable - In summary, the application of Carlsbad's revenue and expenditure assumption to the fiscal impact model indicate that the General Plan works. In other word: the General Plan at build out provides sufficient revenue to provide fc anticipated service levels. It does appear that the next five years will be difficu financially. Again, the assumptions made did not include any econoni recessions, and the current decline is not reflected in the model. The model als reflects the current General Plan and when the General Plan is updated the mod( can be run again. Staff is presently entering the 1991-92 budget and revenues into the model, an is reviewing growth factors and other assumptions used in the forecast. We wi return with an update upon completion. It is anticipated that the results wi reflect a decline in revenues and expenditures and an increase in the number c years showing negative fiscal results. FISCAL IMPACT The initial study and computer software installation have been completed i outlined in the provisions of the contract with Tischler & Associates. The futui fiscal impact of maintaining the model and performing analysis as needed wj require staff time at a cost of approximately $6,000 to $7,000 per yea Additionally, the maintenance agreement for use of the software begins at $8,8(3 for the first year, with 5% increases annually after the first year. - L' e 0 .- Page Three of Agenda Bill No. The cost of performing individual analytical reports will vary depending upon thc number and complexity of the variables tested. It is estimated that a simplt revision Will cost approximately $350. EXHIBITS 1) Report dated December, 1991 entitled Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Genera4 Plan, on file in the City Clerk's Office. 2) Report date November, 1991 entitled Service Level, Cost and Revenuc Assumptions, on file in the City Clerk's Office. 2) Report date May, 1991 entitled Land Use Economic Analysis, on file in thc City Clerk's office. D 0 0 EXCERPT FROM: Service Level, Cost & Revenue Assumptions Fiscal Impact Analysis & Mod November, 1991 As prepared by Tischler & Associates, In 0 0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS The City of Carlsbad has contracted with Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) 1 develop a fiscal model and conduct a fiscal impact analysis of the General Pla Demographic projections and market values have been provided by Keyser Marstc Associates, Inc. (KMA) of San Diego. The projections were developed by KMA j conjunction with City planning, growth management, and research staff, and ai summarized in separate documents. This document discusses the services and facilities whose costs will be affectc by new development. These service level, cost and revenue assumptions are bast on TA's on-site interviews with department heads and their representatives. The: assumptions will be combined with the demographic projections to calculate the fisc; impacts of growth in Carlsbad between FY 1991 and buildout. Calculations will t: performed using TA's MUNIES/FISCALS software. A. The MUNIES/FISCALS Process and Data Input Categories In order to provide an understanding of the overall methodology used in th fiscal impact analysis, a brief explanation of the MUNIES/FISCALS process follow As indicated on the MUNIES process chart on the following page, there ar three types of input data. The first category of demomauhic-economic projectior is called Demand Base data inputs. These numerical projections include data suc as population, housing units, and commercial space. The second general type of input data focuses on property tax revenue Market values of residential and nonresidential property in Carlsbad, expressed j constant 1991 dollars, are multiplied by the City's share of the property tax (0.001s under California law to calculate the amount of this revenue from new developmen The third type of input data relates to the government service levels, costs an revenues. The government service level, cost and revenue data used in the fisc; analysis are being determined and agreed upon by TA and City of Carlsba personnel. This data will be used by TA's MUNlES/FISCALS system to calculate th annual costs, revenues and capital facilities by department or function, wher appropriate. These assumptions follow in this document. Tischler & Assoc PROJ ECTl ONS Population Housing Em ploy men t REVENUES Other (optional) S E RVI C ES COSTS AND STAGE ii (FISCAL AN ALYS I SI \ outputs F 1 SCAL I N FORM AT ION BUDGET SECTION €Q Data inputs Assessment Rates Tax Rates Bond Limit \ \ I \ 1 L SU B SYST E M BUDGETS BUDGETS SUMMARIES J U R I SD I CT 10 N AL FISCAL IMPACT J urisd IC t ional lmpaCt Analy8l8 Assessed Value8 Education city Recreation County Streets Other Other Tax Rate Required State Bonded Debt - Other e e The last step in the fiscal process is to use MUNIES/FISCALS to calcula budgets and related fiscal impact statements. B. Major Assumptions This fiscal impact analysis can be regarded as a snapshot of the curre budget. The F191 (July 1, 1990 - June 30,1991) Budget has been used to represe a snapshot of the City’s current costs and revenues and level of services. Consta 1991 dollars are: used through the study. The 1990 Census population of 63,126, used as the base population. The following major assumptions regarding the fiscal methodology should noted. 1. Incremental, Growth-Related Costs and Revenues. For this analy costs and revenues which are directly attributable to new development are includr In some cases, the data used are average costs, based on a decision by the local st2 and TA that this is the best information available. Where detailed information w available, a marginal or incremental approach was used, such as park acreage p 1,000 population. Some costs are not expected to be affected by growth, and a fixed in this anallysis such as some of the General Government functions. 2. Level of Senice. The cost projections are based on the assumption tl- the current level of services, as provided in the Fy91 budget, will continue throu the analysis period. 3. Rlevenue Structure and Tax Rates. Revenues are projected assumi that the current revenue structure and tax rates, as defined by the N91 budget, w not change during the analysis period. 4. Inflation Rate. The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero through0 the projection period, and cost and revenue projections are in constant 1991 dolla This assumption is in accord with current budget data and avoids the difficulty interpreting results expressed in inflated dollars. 5. Economies of Scale. This report does not determine the economies scale for ongoing operating costs (as opposed to capital facility costs). This is anoth reason why it is desirable to use current cost ratios. iii Tischler 6, Assoc ( 0 0 6. Non-fiscal Evaluations. At this point, it should be noted that whi fiscal impact analysis is an important consideration in planning decisions, it is on one of several issues which should be considered. Environmental and social issur are two such examples. The above notwithstanding, this analysis will enab interested parties to understand the fiscal implications of the forecast developmer. Structure of this Document. This document is organized in the sam order as the FY'91 operating budget. Section I is General Government, includir Miscellaneous Non Departmental and Housing and Redevelopment. Section II Public Safety; Section I11 is Development Services; and Section IV is Culture aF Recreation. Section V is Public Works (Utilities and Maintenance). The fiscal mod is being set up with just the General Fund and three growth-related capital func (Public Facility Fees, Park In-Lieu Fees, and Traffic Impact Fees). As a result, cos and revenues to enterprise funds (such as Water and Sanitation) are not discusse here. Likewise, neither revenues raised from nor projects financed by the Mellc Roos Community Facilities District are included here, as they have been modele elsewhere. 7. Section VI is Revenues, which are discussed in the order of the City Revenue Estimates, beginning on page 25 of the FY91 budget. Projects in tk Capital Improvement Program are discussed in the same sections as their operatir costs. For that reason street projects are discussed in Section V.A., Utilities an Maintenance. iv Tischler & Assoc 0 e EXCIERPT FROM: Final Report Carlsbad General Plan Fiscal Impact Analys Land Use Economic Analysis May, 1991 As prepared by Keyser Mlarston Associates, Ir 0 a 3. 8 ,. 9 Ib b B s 9 (1) 3 County cities; 3 (2) 3 3 3 (4) Compare anticipated land area requirements with existing land area 3 B 3 il INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) was requested to prepare a land use economic analysis for the fiscal impact analysis of the Carlsbad General Plan. The land use economic analysis was intended to assist City staff and Tischler & Associates (the City’s fiscal impact consultant) in identification of alternatives to the existing General Plan. The specific work tasks can be summarized as follows: Review demographic and economic trends for Carlsbad and other North Assess market factors and development trends for both residential and non- residential land uses in Carlsbad; Formulate absorption projections by type of land use; and (3) allocations. KMA’s analysis considered the following major land use types: single-family and multi- family residential; office; industrial; and commercial retail. Hotel uses were specifically omitted from this analysis for several key reasons. First, the current hotel market is significantly overbuilt, and this trend can be expected to continue well into the 1990s until surplus inventory is absorbed. Secondly, while there are possibly a few sites for major resort development remaining in Carlsbad, most new hotels are likely to require relatively limited amounts of land. Lastly, demand for new hotel rooms in coastal North County is largely a function of statewide or national economic conditions, making a linear projection of new hotel room absorption difficult. In completing this assignment, KMA reviewed the extensive available documentation related to planning and growth issues in Carlsbad. These have included: the General Plan (1986), Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (1986), Local Facility Management Plans for 21 of the 25 zones (1987-1990), Citywide Residential and Non-Residential Phasing Projections (1991 update), Growth Management Status Reports (year-end 1989 and 1990), and the 1990- 1991 Operating and Capital Budget. In addition, KMA contacted numerous other sources for statistical information, including local real estate brokers; Urban Decision Systems; San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); and other state and local agencies. Dennis Turner, Don Rideout, and Brian Hunter of the Carlsbad Community Development Department were also extremely helpful in providing information necessary for this analysis. This report is not intended as a detailed regional market analysis for commercial and residential uses in North County. Instead, KMA has gathered relevant market information for Carlsbad and competing North County cities with the specific objective of formulating 1 _B 3 L 4 i 1 3 1 9 8 8 1 3 1 a e j 1 ) 1 absorption projections by type of land use. It is important to note that our land use demand projections are based on the assumption that future demographic and economic trends will resemble the recent past. However, it is difficult to project with any accuracy future market conditions beyond a five- to ten-year time period. KMA recommends, therefore, that the findings of this study be considered primarily as order-of-magnitude estimates of possible future development trends. The limiting conditions and assumptions listed at the end of this report also apply. The overall methodology employed in the land use economic analysis may be summarized as follows: \ 1 1 ) 1 1 1 j 1 1 1 ) 1 SteD 1: Based on extensive review of recent demographic and economic conditions and historic development trends and market activity, KMA projected future demand for residential and non-residential land uses. Specifically, KMA has forecasted demand for single-family residential, multi-family residential, office, industrial, and commercial land uses. Based on a review of City documents and discussions with planning and growth management staff, KMA compiled information on remaining developable inventory by land use type for each zone. Ideally, it would have been preferable to use figures for remaining net developable acreage by type of land use. However, acreage data were not readily available for all zones in the City. KMA therefore used the City's buildout projections in terms of remaining developable building square footage (GSF) or residential units (Du's). (In compiling this information, KMA reviewed the updated 1991 Citywide Residential and Non-Residential Phasing Projections and Local Facilities Management Plans with Don Rideout of Growth Management.) KMA summarized inventory figures for remaining developable residential units and non-residential square footage to the quadrant level. Using assumed average densities, KMA then converted the developable inventory information to remaining net developable acres by land use type. As a final step, KMA compared the supply of land for each use (based on the present land area allocations in the General Plan) with KMA's Step 2: i B land use demand projections. 1 b 1 B 1 1 1 0 Step 3: This memorandum is intended as a technical report for inclusion in the fiscal impact analysis being completed by Tischler 8z Associates. The text of the report is followed by a Technical Appendix consisting of six sections. Section I contains summary tables regarding land use supply, projected absorption, residential and non-residential buildout, and impacts on jobs/housing balance. Sections I1 through V present the supporting documentation for the four land use demand projections. Section VI presents the findings of KMA's survey of 2 .$ e e ,- growth management policies in North County. PRINCIPAL, FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Land Use Demand Forecasts KMA's land use projections for residential and non-residential uses are summarized in Table 1-1. As shown in the table, KMA's projections indicate demand through 2010 for approximately 542 single-family units and 569 multi-family units annually. KMA has projected total annual private non-residential demand of about 680,000 GSF through 2010. Our specific projections of annual demand by type of land use are for 150,000 GSF office space, 389,000 GSF industrial space, and 143,000 GSF commercial space. About five acres annually are also expected to be required for new automobile dealers and service stations. KMA also converted these inventory demand figures to acreage requirements using average density assumptions. For single-family housing, KMA has assumed an average density of 2.84 units/acre based on the weighted average density of the RL and RLM land use designations in the General Plan. This density assumption results in an average annual demand for 191 acres. For multi-family units, KMA has assumed an average density of 8.43 units/acre based on the weighted average of the RM, RMH, and RH land use designations. Multi-family housing would therefore require about 68 acres annually. Similarly, KMA has used an assumed typical Floor Area Ratio (FAR) to convert non- residential space demand to land area requirements. Based on discussions with City Growth Management staff, KMA has used a constant FAR of 0.35 for non-residential land uses in the context of this study. This density assumption translates to average annual demand as follows: about 10 acres for office use, 26 acres for industrial use, and a total 14 acres for commercial uses. Private, non-residential uses would therefore require a total of about 50 acres per year. In total, KMA's projections indicate a need for 310 acres annually for all private uses, both residential and non-residential. I Developable Inventorv/Land Area bv Type For purposes of this study, KMA examined inventory and land use allocation data at the level of the City's four quadrants and 25 facility management planning zones. These subareas have been defined by City staff for planning and growth management purposes. Note that Zone 5, which contains Palomar Airport and the office and industrial parks in its vicinity, overlays three quadrants at their mutual boundary at Palomar Airport Road and El Camino Real. Since it was not readily possible to segregate Zone 5 information into three quadrants, KMA summarized remaining developable inventory of residential units and non-residential square footage for the City as a whole, the four quadrants exclusive of Zone 3 ) 1 1 1 j b 0 j 1 0 0 ,- 5, and Zone 5 alone. This information, presented in Table 1-2, is taken from the Local Facilities Management Plans, the updated 1991 phasing projections, and discussions with City staff. As shown, 24,098 residential units and about 34.3 million non-residential square feet remain to be developed in Carlsbad. KMA has examined the City's assumed average density characteristics at buildout by comparing buildout inventory with total designated acreage for each land use category. For residential uses, KMA divided total units at buildout (51,888 units) by Citywide residential land area (I 1,948 net acres), for an average density of 4.34 units/acre. This density figure applies to all residential units at buildout, that is, including, both existing (1991) and remaining developable units. For non-residential uses, KMA divided total building area at buildout (48,079,697 GSF) by Citywide land area designated for private non-residential land uses (4,361 net acres), for an average FAR of 0.25. Based on these density levels, remaining developable inventory (units/GSF) was converted to land area (acres). As shown in the table, this approach indicates that an estimated 5,549 net acres of residential land and 3,110 net acres of non-residential land remain for development. Comparison of Land Use Supply and Demand As stated above, one of the objectives of this report was to determine whether the land area allocations in the existing General Plan are appropriate or adequate relative to anticipated market support for each use. However, complete data on remaining developable acreage by specific land use type (e.g., RL, RLM, RM, etc.) were not available. The study therefore cannot address, for example, whether adequate multi-family land will be available to meet projected demand. KMA instead formulated estimates at the aggregate level of residential and non-residential land area remaining for development. These figures were compared to the aggregated land area requirements in these two categories. (See discussion below). The absorption forecasts presented in this study assume that an adequate supply of land will be available to meet projected market support for each subcategory. In the long term, it is reasonable to assume that market demand factors will influence future land use policies, including General Plan amendments, Master Plans, and rezonings. KMA's projected land area requirements by type of use can be summarized as follows: o Residential: KMA estimated annual demand for 542 single-family units and 569 multi-family units, resulting in a combined requirement of about 1,110 units or 260 acres per year. Table 1-3 presents calculations of the buildout period for remaining residential and non-residential uses in Carlsbad. As shown in the table, about 24,098 housing units remain to be developed in Carlsbad. Based on KMA's projected absorption rate of 1,110 units per year, residential buildout would occur in 2012. Non-Residential: KMA estimated annual demand for about 680,000 GSF of private, non-residential space, or about 50 acres. As shown in Table 1-3, 0 4 a 0 ,- about 34.3 million GSF of non-residential building area remain to be developed. KMA has assumed that about 20% of remaining non-residential uses will constitute public or institutional uses. This assumption results in an estimated 27.4 million GSF of remaining private, non-residential space. Based on KMA's non-residential absorption projection of 680,000 GSF per year, non-residential buildout could be expected to occur in 2030. In other words, these calculations demonstrate that residential demand is sufficiently strong that the City's available supply of residential land should be exhausted by 2012. Demand for non-residential uses -- office, industrial, and commercial taken together -- will not be exhausted until 2030. At residential buildout in 2012, there will be about 15.9 million GSF of non-residential development remaining, equal to about an 18-year supply of non- residential space. Table 1-4 demonstrates the likely impacts of the existing General Plan land use allocations on the City's future jobs-housing balance. Currently, the City contains 27,790 residential units and 13.8 million non-residential GSF, or a ratio of 496 non-residential GSF per housing unit. In 2012, upon residential buildout, the City will have reached 51,888 housing units and 32.2 million non-residential GSF, or a ratio of 621 GSF/unit. At this point, housing growth will essentially cease, with no further significant increase in population. However, non-residential land use absorption would continue until buildout in 2030. At that time, the City would contain an estimated 48.7 million non-residential GSF. This would result in approximately 927 non-residential GSF per dwelling unit. In the lower half of Table 1-4, KMA has translated the projected land use mix at future timepoints into estimates of the number of jobs per housing unit. Currently, there are about 1.18 jobs per housing unit in the City of Carlsbad. Based on KMA's absorption projections, there would be about 1.31 jobs per housing unit at residential buildout in 2012. Subsequently, non-residential development and employment growth would continue through ultimate buildout in 2030. At that time, KMA estimates that the City would contain 2.12 jobs per housing unit. These ratios are presented to illustrate the significant change in the mix of residential and non-residential uses that will result from buildout of the existing General Plan. It is important to note, however, that projections of market demand for non- residential uses 40 years into the future are speculative at best. Moreover, KMA's non- residential demand analyses are based on assumptions about household and population growth. Since Carlsbad would experience essentially no population growth after residential buildout, continued absorption of non-residential land would require a substantial increase 1 in the importation of labor force and retail consumers from other communities. It is important to recognize that Carlsbad already imports both work force and retail shoppers. The City has historically been extremely successful relative to its neighbors in attracting a range of revenue-generating uses, boasting major resort hotels, North County's premier concentration of industrial/office parks, and the only regional shopping center in coastal North County. For residential and non-residential buildout to occur simultaneously, 5 0 0 I .. j. b B 1 1 Identification of Alternatives 1 1 j j ) 1 1 P 1 1 1 1 1 the City would have to significantly enhance its capture of office, industrial, and commercial space. In our opinion, this is highly improbable; therefore, the City is likely to retain a substantial reserve of non-residential land at the time of residential buildout. The principal purposes of the land use economic analysis were twofold: (1) to forecast land use absorption by type of use, and (2) to identify alternative land use allocations (other then the existing General Plan) to be tested in the fiscal impact analysis. KMA initially recommended that the City consider an alternative land area allocation which results in simultaneous residential and non-residential buildout. Based on KMA's projected absorption rates, this would require a transfer of about 1,118 acres from non-residential use to residential use. Buildout would occur in 2017 with total inventories at buildout of 35.8 million non-residential GSF and 56,727 residential units. This alternative was reviewed by City staff and discarded as impractical. The City's growth management plan imposes ceilings on residential buildout and total population. In addition, the majority of remaining non-residential acreage in Carlsbad is located in Zones 5 and 17 near Palomar Airport. Due to air traffic and existing land use patterns, this area is considered unsuitable for residential development. City staff and Tischler & Associates have agreed to address two alternatives in the fiscal impact analysis. Both will utilize the land area allocations in the existing General Plan, but the rates and types of non-residential development will vary as described below. 0 Optimistic Scenario. Under this alternative, City officials are assumed to take an aggressive stance similar to past actions in attracting new non-residential development to Carlsbad. The City would capture both the regional mall and a new auto mall, and non-residential absorption would achieve the full rate projected in this report. Achievable Scenario. In the "Achievable Scenario," City officials are assumed j to take a passive posture toward non-residential development. Specifically, it is assumed that the City would experience a lower capture rate of major 1 non-residential uses such as a new regional mall, automobile dealerships, and other retail developments. ) 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 o KMA's estimates of absorption and build-out for the Achievable Scenario are summarized in Table 1-5. These estimates are based on a quadrant-level analysis of the impacts of lower capture rates for commercial uses. Under this scenario, it is assumed that average annual non-residential absorption would be 620,000 GSF or 44 acres, as compared to 580,000 GSF or 50 acres in the Optimistic Scenario. Total remaining non-residential inventory under the 6 0 e .I Achievable Scenario would be 29.9 million GSF, as compared to 34.3 million GSF in the Optimistic Scenario. SURVEY OF GROWTH MANAGEMENT POLICIES KMA assessed the upside development potential in Carlsbad as a result of growth management restrictions in neighboring cities. The hypothesis discussed among City staff and the consultant team was that development restrictions in adjacent communities could increase demand for homes or commercial space in Carlsbad. This memorandum presents KMA's analysis and findings regarding possible impacts of North County growth management policies. To test the validity of this hypothesis, KMA conducted a survey of five North County cities (Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Sari Marcos, and Vista). The purpose of the survey was to identify the principal growth management controls and potential curbs on development in each community. As a starting point, KMA utilized an earlier survey conducted by SANDAG for its Regional Housing Needs Statement. This information was supplemented through telephone interviews with planning staff and review of public policy documents. The principal growth management provisions for each city are summarized in Table VI-1. Four of the five North County cities surveyed have growth management policies in place; San Marcos is the only city surveyed which lacks growth management restrictions. Growth management policies in Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, and Vista are focused primarily on residential, rather than commercial development. Restrictions on residential development include: (1) Density reductions or downzoning. (Alternatively, rezonings to higher (2) (3) densities are restricted.) Caps on annual residential building permits. Facilitylsewice threshold requirements prior to new developments. Carlsbad's growth management program includes both (1) and (3), but not (2). There are no meaningful growth restrictions on non-residential uses in the cities surveyed, . with the exception of (3) above. Non-residential development in newly developing areas are also subject to facilities/infrastructure requirements. This is true of Carlsbad's growth management program as well. Based on the foregoing analysis, KMA concludes that the impact of existing growth management provisions in North County on Carlsbad's capture of new development is minimal. Where restrictions on residential development have been imposed, they generally 7 @ e 4 take similar forms. With the exception of San Marcos, the other cities have generally downzoned residentially designated lands and implemented facility and infrastructure standards. Carlsbad’s policy also includes these provisions. In addition, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, and Vista maintain annual residential building caps. While Carlsbad does not have annual ceilings on new residential development, it can be argued that the costs of facilities and infrastructure required for new development necessarily impose numerical limits on new residential units. It is our view, therefore, that Carlsbad‘s proportionate capture of new residential growth will not be significantly affected by existing growth management policies in North County. In our experience, housing market values are the single factor with the greatest influence on Carlsbad’s capture of regional housing demand (Le., its share of North County residential growth). High land costs, and associated high unit prices or rents, distinguish the Carlsbad housing market from neighboring cities more than the development constraints imposed by growth regulations. In terms of non-residential land uses, KMA similarly concludes that North County growth management policies are not likely to significantly influence the regional distribution of new growth. The only meaningful controls on commercial development in North County are the facilities/infrastructure requirements. Relatively similar provisions are in effect in Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, and Vista, indicating that Carlsbad contains no competitive advantages over these cities. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROJECTION Section I1 of the Technical Appendix presents KMA’s demand projection for residential land. The methodology examines historic demographic trends and housing unit production in the six North County cities and San Diego County as a whole. In particular, KMA has examined Carlsbad’s capture rate of the regional increase in population over the past 20 years. Based on this information, KMA has formulated a housing unit demand projection for Carlsbad through 2010; Note that the projections of residential unit production/absorption focus primarily on private housing market activity. The analysis does not attempt to project future construction of publicly subsidized housing units; the amount of development of such projects would presumably depend to a great extent on a variety of policy decisions at the local, state, and federal level. Analysis of these factors is considered to be beyond the scope of this study. KMA also examined the distribution of historic housing unit production by type (single- family vs. multi-family) and tenure (renter- vs. owner-occupied). Based on historic trends, the split of projected unit demand was estimated for multi-family rental, multi-family for-sale (condominium/townhouse), and single-family units. In sum, the analysis indicates average annual demand through 2010 for 542 single-family homes and 569 multi-family units. 8 0 0 .I . .- Table 11-1 presents average annual population growth in Carlsbad relative to San Diego County and the State of California. Carlsbad population increased by an average 2,409 persons per year over the period 1970 to 1990. From 1980 to 1990, the average annual increase was 2,764 persons. Based on this historical growth, KMA anticipates Carlsbad to continue growing at an average annual rate of about 2,600 people per year through 2010. Note that KMA's population forecasts exceed SANDAGs Series 7 forecasts published elsewhere. SANDAGs projections use 1986 as the base year for projecting population, employment, and land absorption through 2010. Because of the high growth rates which have occurred in San Diego County and to a greater extent in many North County cities since 1986, SANDAG's projections have been substantially understated. For example, a number of the comparison North County cities have achieved 1990 populations in excess of SANDAG's 1995 projections. As a result, KMA has made separate assumptions regarding population and employment growth and land absorption as it is our judgement that SANDAG's figures do not present an accurate reflection of North County's rapid growth. Table 11-2 presents Carlsbad's historical trends in population, households, and household size as compared to Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, Vista, and San Diego County. As may be noted, Carlsbad experienced the second fastest rate of population growth over the period 1970 to 1990 and the third fastest growth rate over the period 1980 to 1990. Correspondingly, household growth in Carlsbad also ranked second and third in these two time periods. Average household size has been declining in Carlsbad as it has in North County as a whole. Table 11-3 presents historical changes in the distribution of owner- vs. renter-occupied housing for the North County cities and San Diego County. As may be noted, Carlsbad has the lowest proportion of renter-occupied housing relative to the other cities and the County as a whole. In fact, the percentage of renter-occupied housing units in Carlsbad has decreased over time; currently about one-third of all housing in Carlsbad is renter-occupied. In contrast, the percentage of renter-occupied housing units in San Diego County has remained relatively constant during 1970-1990 at about 44%. Table 11-4 presents the recent historical distribution of single-family vs. multi-family housing unit production. The "percentage multi-family" is calculated as the number of multi-family units permitted divided by total units permitted. Over the period 1980 to 1989, almost one- half (about 47%) of new housing units in the City of Carlsbad were multi-family units. In San Diego County as a whole, the share of new multi-family production was higher, at aboul 57%. Table 11-5 presents KMA's estimate of future residential demand. Over the past 20 years, Carlsbad's share of the County's population has increased from 1.1% in 1970 to 1.9% ic 1980 and to 2.5% in 1990. In addition, the percentage of Carlsbad's population in 9 -" * I- 0 0 households vs. group quarters has remained relatively constant. KMA's population forecasts for Carlsbad (115,081 in 2010; see Table 11-1) anticipate that the City's population will grow from a 2.5% share of the County's population in 1990 to over 3.0% by 2010. This assumption necessarily implies that Carlsbad's proportional capture of regional population growth will gradually increase. Although it can be argued that the relatively high prices of Carlsbad homes makes this unlikely, KMA hypothesizes that the City's new inclusionaxy housing requirement will improve the mix of affordable home production in Carlsbad in the future. If the percentage of the population in households vs. group quarters is assumed to remain constant at 98.54%, then household population can be expected to increase from 62,203 in 1990 to 113,398 in 2010. Based on this household population forecast and an assumed average household size (held constant at 2.42 persons), KMA projects net new housing unit demand as follows: an average 1,149 units per year during 1991 to 1995; 1,067 units per year during 1996 to 2000; 1,128 units per year during 2001 to 2005; and 1,101 units per year during 2006 to 2010. Overall, average annual residential demand during 1991-2010 (inclusive) is projected to be 1,110 units. Note that these figures also take into consideration a 5% pro forma vacancy. This assumption is not intended as an estimate of actual current or future market vacancy. Table 11-6 presents the estimate of residential demand by housing type (single- vs. multi- family) and tenure (renter- vs. owner-occupied). Note that historically multi-family housing has constituted about 50% of total residential unit production. Proportional demand for multi-family housing can be expected to increase over time. Total multi-family demand is projected to increase from 563 units per year during 1991-1995 to 583 units per year by 2006-2010. Correspondingly, single-family housing demand as a proportion of total housing demand can be expected to decline. Average annual demand for single-family homes is projected to be 586 homes in 1991-1995, falling to about 517 homes per year in 2006-2010. KMA also estimated the split of rental and for-sale housing unit demand. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that all renter-occupied units are multi-family units. Historically the proportion of renter-occupied units in Carlsbad has declined; it is estimated as 33% in 1990. Our analysis assumes that an equivalent proportion of new units will be renter-occupied; that is, of an average annual demand for 1,149 units during 1991-1995, KMA projects demand for 379 multi-family rental units (33% of the total) and 184 multi- family for-sale units (townhomes/condominiums), €or a total 563 rnulti-family units (49% of total demand). The balance of the projected housing demand would be for single-family homes. Similarly, over the 20-year period, KMA projects average annual demand for 367 multi-family rental units, 203 multi-family for-sale units, and 569 single-family homes. The summary table in the lower half of Table 11-6 translates housing unit demand to land use absorption. KMA projects a need for 5,484 net acres of residential land through buildout based on the standard density assumptions noted in the table. (This figure differs slightly from the remaining residential net acreage figure of 5,549 acres shown in Table 1-2. This land area discrepancy is indicative of the differing density assumptions used in this analysis; in any case, the difference is small and both figures represent approximations.) Of 10 0 0 j .. 'I ! 1 j this total, 3,959 acres would be required for single-family housing and 1,525 acres for multi- family housing. Note that these residential unit absorption projections are largely based on historical population trends and housing market activity. Inasmuch as the City recently enacted an interim inclusionary housing program, future housing absorption trends may well differ from past experience. For example, affordable, Le., low-income, units should absorb more rapidly than the average unit. However, the subsidy requirements for affordable units may result in higher sale prices for market-rate units in the balance of the project. These units may, in effect, experience slower absorption than anticipated. A more detailed analysis of the effects of the City's inclusionary policy on the housing market is beyond the scope of this study. ) 1 ) 1 ) 1 1 PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ABSORPTION BY OUADRANT KMA also estimated a distribution of residential unit absorption by quadrant. Residential growth is likely to occur earliest in those areas of the City where major facilities and infrastructure are already in place. Conversely, those zones which consist primarily of raw land with no improvements in place should be the last to see residential buildout. To estimate the distribution of housing unit absorption by quadrant, KMA looked at historical housing growth and the potential buildout for each quadrant. Historical housing unit production by quadrant was evaluated based on two data sources: j j 1 h 1 (1) Data on existing housing units by zone obtained from the January 1991 Local Facilities Management Plan (LFMP) and discussions with City growth management staff, as shown in Table 1-1; and State Department of Finance housing inventory data compiled at the Census tract level by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG). This information was available for January of each year from 1981 to 1990. (Note that the Census tract corresponding to the southwest quadrant overlaps a portion of the northwest quadrant, Le., Zones 5 and 13. Because these zones are predominantly non-residential, no adjustments were deemed necessary). Housing inventory data from these two sources were not entirely consistent. KMA therefore used the first source (the January 1, 1991 LFMP update) for 1990, and the 1981 to 1990 ' annual change represented by the second source (SANDAG/DOF). This information is presented in the upper half of Table II-7. The second step in the analysis was to proportionately allocate future residential unit absorption based on the historical rate of housing production and buildout limitations for each quadrant. As shown in Table 11-6, KMA is projecting citywide average annual housing unit demand of 1,110 units through 2010. As can be seen in Table 11-7, attached, the 11 1 1 (2) ) ' .- 0 0 ,4 southwest quadrant has absorbed an average 285 residential dwelling units per year over the period 1981 to 1990. Based on historical absorption and the amount of vacant acreage available for development, we anticipate future absorption to average about 320 units per year through 2010. At this level of absorption, residential buildout of the southwest quadrant would occur in 2011. The northwest quadrant has historically absorbed an average 288 units per year over the period 1981 to 1990. Because this area has the least amount of remaining developable residential acreage, we anticipate a decreasing annual absorption rate over time in the northwest quadrant as land becomes scarce. Over the period 1990 to 2010, we would expect average annual absorption to approximate 180 units. The resulting buildout of the northwest quadrant would occur in 2008. The northeast quadrant has absorbed an average 311 units per year over the period 1981 to 1990. Because of diminishing amounts of large-tract developable land, we anticipate a reduction of average annual absorption to about 240 units per year through 2010. The corresponding buildout would occur in 2011. Historical absorption in the southeast quadrant has averaged 295 units per year over the period 1981 to 1990. Because the southeast quadrant has the largest inventory of undeveloped residential acreage, we anticipate increasing average annual absorption to occur as infrastructure is put into place. As such we have projected the average annual absorption to increase to 370 units over the period 1990 to 2010. The resulting buildout would occur in 2013. OFFICE LAND USE PROJECTION The land use demand projection for office space is presented in Section 111 of the Technical Appendix. In projecting future demand for office space, KMA has examined office space inventory and absorption trends in Carlsbad and other North County cities. The methodology examines the historical relationship between population, employment (number of jobs in Carlsbad), and office-using employment. Regional employment trends such a5 the labor force participation rate, the civilian employment rate, the office sector employment rate, and office employment density were identified for this analysis. KMA then applied similar ratios to population forecasts for Carlsbad to calculate the increment in office space supported by population growth in Carlsbad. In addition, the analysis assumes a 5% pro ' forma vacancy factor and a 10% core factor (the difference between net and gross building ' area). According to local real estate brokers, the Carlsbad market has absorbed significantly more office space than any other North County city in each of the last six years. (See Table 111-3, discussed below.) Carlsbad averaged net annual absorption of about 155,000 square feet (SF) during 1985-1990, or about 32% of the total for North County overall. These figures 12 e e )-- " .1 F ,I ) D b b F 1 b ) B j b D 1 B ) D b are indicative generally of Carlsbad's status as a major office park center in coastal North County and specifically of the subregional dominance of office uses in the Palomar Airport area. Regional Employment Trends KMA utilized employment data (number of jobs) from the San Diego Association pf Governments for the following areas: Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, Vista, and San Diego County. Table 111-1 illustrates employment trends for these areas derived from population and employment estimates for 1980 and 1988 (most recent year for which data were available). The table presents figures for population, the ratio of jobs to population, and the ratio of office jobs to total jobs for each area. For the purposes of this analysis, KMA looked at employment levels by SIC code and used industry standard assumptions regarding percent of office-using employment. As demonstrated in the table, the ratio of jobs to population has been increasing in most North County cities. In Carlsbad, for example, there were 0.46 jobs for every resident in 1980; by 1988, there were 0.51 jobs for every resident. The only North County city to exhibit a higher proportion of jobs to residents was San Marcos, with about 0.64 jobs for every resident in 1988. In San Diego County as a whole, the ratio of jobs to population rose from 0.45 to 0.50 between 1980 and 1988. These data point to Carlsbad's status as a major employment center in North County; most of the other cities have a lower ratio of jobs to population, indicating a greater role as bedroom communities. The relationship of office-using jobs relative to total jobs is presented in the columns on the far right. The proportion of office jobs in Carlsbad has grown from 24.4% in 1980 to 32.2% in 1988. Office-using employment in the six North County cities increased from 24.9% of total employment in 1980 to 25.2% in 1988. County-wide, 27.5% of total employment consisted of office jobs in 1988. Relative to North County and the County as a whole, Carlsbad can be considered to have a high proportion of office jobs, indicating a greater level of white collar employment. Office SD - ace Demand The next step in the analysis was to apply the ratios presented in Table HI-1 to forecasts of Carlsbad's future population (see projections in Table 11-1). KMA assumes that the ratio of jobs to population in Carlsbad will continue to increase over time. In Table 111-2, the jobs-population ratio is shown as increasing from 51.41% in 1988 to 54.00% by buildout. Application of these estimates to the population projections yields estimates of future employment at selected tirnepoints. KMA assumed that office-using employment would increase from its present share of the total, about 32%, to 34% by buildout. The number of jobs was then multiplied by the projected office sector employment rate, resulting in the projected number of office employees in Carlsbad. From the estimate of future office employment, a typical office employment density, or average amount of space per employee, was applied. For purposes of this analysis, an industry standard office density of 250 SF per 13 \ # 1 b b b b b b b b 1:. *I 0 0 -4 employee was used. Lastly, from the estimate of total office space demand, KMA has subtracted the 1990 base year in order to estimate net new office space demand, Le., demand over current 1990 space requirements. To this estimate of office space demand, KMA has added a 5% pro forma vacancy and a 10% typical office building core factor to estimate total gross office space demand. Note that consideration of a pro forma vacancy factor is not intended to imply any projection of a specific level of actual future market vacancy. As can be seen, KMA estimates office demand to approximate an average annual 150,000 SF during 1991-2010, or a total demand of about 3.0 million SF through 2010. Per City growth management staff, KMA has applied a Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of 0.35 to calculate the amount of land area required for office use through 2010. density of development, about 9.8 acres would be absorbed per year, or a total of about 196 acres by 2010. Table I113 presents a historical context to the office land use projection. As may be noted, the City of Carlsbad absorbed an average of 155,000 SF of office space per year over the period 1985 to 1990. As such, the projection of 150,000 SF per year is consistent with recent historical office absorption. At this INDUSTRIAL LAND USE PROJECT ION Section IV of the Technical Appendix presents the analysis of industrial space demand through 2010. The methodology involved is similar to the office land use projection. As can be seen in Table IV-1 (far right columns), the ratio of industrial jobs vs. total jobs in Carlsbad has grown from 29.2% in 1980 to 31.5% in 1988. Conversely, the County's ratio of industrial jobs to total jobs has declined from 22.3% in 1980 to 22.0% in 1988. In the six cities as a whole, industrial employment as a percent of total declined from 25.7% in 1980 to 24.1% in 1988. These data reflect Carlsbad's growing concentration of industrial/business parks while manufacturing employment has become less important in other jurisdictions. In fact, Carlsbad has absorbed more industrial space since 1986 than any other North County city. (See Table IV-3, discussed below.) During 1986-1990, the Carlsbad market absorbed an average annual 393,000 SF of industrial space, or about 28% of total absorption- in the North County cities. These figures indicate the relative dominance of Carlsbad within North County as a location for flex industrial, R&D, and warehouse facilities, particularly .."in the Palomar Airport area. Table IV-2 utilizes these historic employment trends to project future industrial employment and, subsequently, industrial space demand. KMA has assumed that the ratio of industrial jobs to total jobs in Carlsbad will continue to increase, Le., from 31.5% in 1988 to 33.0% by 2005 and thereafter. This assumption is intended to reflect the large inventory of available industrial acreage in Carlsbad relative to declining inventories in other parts of the 14 0 e 0, % . a* y -1 B B county. The industrial employment rate times estimated future total employment yields the projected number of industrial jobs in Carlsbad. KMA then assumed an average employment density of 750 SF of industrial space per employee, resulting in the required increase in industrial space. Taking into consideration a 5% pro forma vacancy, total new demand for industrial space through 2010 is estimated to be 7,786,000 SF, or an average annual demand of 389,000 SF. Under the assumption of an average FAR of 0.35, industrial development would require an average of 25.5 acres per year. Lastly, Table IV-3 presents a historical context to the industrial land use projection. As may be noted, the City of Carlsbad has absorbed an average of 393,000 SF of industrial space per year during 1986-1990. The industrial space demand projection is therefore consistent with recent historical absorption. B b B b D 3) 3 P B a 3 o Comparison goods (department store-type merchandise, or DSTM), including This category also B B 1 B COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROJECTION Section V of the Technical Appendix presents the projection of land area demand for retail/commercial land uses. The approach to the commercial land use projection involved preparation of retail demand models that estimate future expenditure potential and the increment in supportable retail space by category of retail. KMA's analysis considered space requirements for six types of retail/commercial businesses: apparel, appliances, electronic, and specialty goods. includes 40% of furniture and home furnishings sales. Convenience sales, which include food, liquor, and drug items. o o Eating and drinking establishments. o \ Home improvement goods, including lumber and building materials, hardware, plumbing and electrical supplies, paint, glass, and farm and garden supplies. In addition, 60% of furniture and home furnishings sales are included in this category. g o Automobile dealers and supplies. 1 1 0 Service stations. 1 The first step in the analysis was to identify current spending patterns for retail goods @ Carlsbad residents in comparison to the other North County cities, San Diego County, anc the State of California. Secondly, KMA assessed the relationships between spending fo income levels were then used to project future expenditure potential for each retail categoq 15 I each retail category and residents' personal incomes. Estimates of future population anc 1 I e 0 .J ’ -* .b KMA then used assumptions about sales productivity (sales per square foot of retail space) to estimate support for new retail space. Supportable square footage of retail space and land area requirements by type of retail/commercial use are summarized in Table V-1. Tables V-2 through V-8A detail the methodology used to amve at these conclusions. AS shown in Table V-1, the projections indicate total demand for new retail space of 2,855,000 SF through 2010, or an average annual 143,000 SF. These figures take into account retail building square footage required to accommodate increased sales activity in comparison goods, convenience goods, eating and drinking, and home improvement items. Based on an assumed FAR of 0.35, these uses would require an average of 9.4 acres per year, or a total 187.3 acres, through 2010. In addition, KMA has separately projected support for new automobile dealerships and service stations. These uses are projected to require about 3.6 acres and 0.9 acres per year, respectively. Taken together, auto dealerships and service stations would require about 90.7 acres total through 2010. In sum, KMA projects total 1991-2010 commercial land use absorption of 277.9 acres, or an average of 13.9 acres annually. Retail Sales Trends Table V-2 presents historic and projected personal income trends for Carlsbad, North County, San Diego County, and the State. As can be seen, incomes in Carlsbad are significantly higher than these other areas. Moreover, the rate of growth in income has been higher in Carlsbad than these other areas. Tables V-3 through V-8 present total sales for each of the six retail categories in selected years during 1980-1989 for Carlsbad, the North County cities, San Diego County, and the State. The following conclusions can be drawn from these tables: 0 Between 14% and 16% of per capita income is typically spent on comparison goods in these areas. About 10% to 12% of per capita income is spent on convenience goods. Between 5% and 6% of per capita income is spent in eating and drinking establishments. About 6% to 7% of per capita income is spent on home improvement items. About 10% of per capita income is spent on automotive sales in the County and the State. In Carlsbad, the ratio of automotive sales to per capita income is much higher, about 28% in 1989, indicating that Carlsbad captures a significant share of automotive expenditures from neighboring cities. Between 3% and 4% of per capita income is spent in service stations. 0 0 o 0 o 16 I e * a- ! ?; s a It is worth noting that retail spending as a percentage of per capita income has decline( since 1980 for almost all retail categories. For example, in 1980, about 13% of per capiti income in the areas examined was spent on convenience goods; by 1989, this ratio hac declined to about 11%. KMA attributes these declines to rising incomes and to the greate allocation of personal income to housing expenditures. These trends have beel incorporated into the projection of future retail expenditures by category. 3 B 3 Retail ExDenditure Potential In Tables V-3A through V-84 KMA has considered (1) population and (2) income forecast for the City of Carlsbad in conjunction with (3) anticipated future expenditures by retai category as a function of per capita income. These three factors yield the total sale potential for each retail category. For example, as shown in Table V-3A, "Population" time "Per Capita Income" times "Comparison Goods as % of Per Capita Income" equals 'Tota Comparison Goods Sales Potential." KMA estimated per capita sales potential based 01 historic expenditures for the State, County, and City, as shown in Table V-3. As a next stez KMA subtracted 1989 sales potential, as an estimate of the current (base year) sales level to yield the net sales potential, i.e., the increase over current levels. "Assumed Sale Productivity" reflects typical industry standards or regional expectations of sales productiviq for each retail category. The sales productivity has been inflated at 4% per year to reflec anticipated inflation. Dividing net sales potential by assumed sales productivity yield: "Demand for Retail Space." To this result, KMA added a 5% pro forma vacancy, resultini in total demand for new retail space over current levels. 3 P 3 a 3 3 a 3 3 3 9 3 LIMITING CO NDITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS The following limiting conditions and assumptions apply to the analysis undertaken in thi study. (1) 7 The analysis contained in this report is based, in part, on data from secondar] sources such as the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); the Cente: for Continuing Study of the California Economy; the California Departments o Finance and Economic Development and the Board of Equalization; Urbar Decisions Systems, Inc.; and the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce. Whih KMA believes that these sources are accurate, KMA cannot guarantee their accuracy The analysis assumes that neither the local nor national economy will experience i major recession. If an unforeseen change occurs in the economy, the conclusion contained herein may no longer be valid. The findings are based on economic rather than political considerations. Therefore they should not be construed as representation or opinion that government approval! for development can be secured. h P 1 1 1 (2) (3) 17 e m a e;. - ~ 3. 7; 9 (4) Market support is not equivalent to financial feasibility; apart from whether there is a demand for various retail uses, other factors are of crucial importance ir 9 9 determining feasibility. s 3 (5) The analysis, opinions, recomrriendations and conclusions of this report represen KMA’s informed judgment based on market and economic conditions as of the datt of this report. Due to the volatility of market conditions and complex dynamics influencing the economic situations and conditions of the building and developmen1 industry, conclusions and recommended actions contained within this report should not be relied upon as sole input for final policy decisions regarding current and future development and planning. 3 9 # II, 3 3 3 3 B 3 P B 4 3 1 1, ) ) 1 1 ) 18 ) 1 I Im I Tischler& , Associates, Inc. 2 11 S Manhattan PI Suite 3 Los Angeles, CA 90004 I (213) 382-4800 Fax (213) 382-4858 4701 Sangamore Road , Suite N210 Bethesda, MD 20816 , Fax (301) 320-4860 (301) 320-6900 (800) 424-4318 I I I I II I I I: I I I. Fiscal Impact Analysis Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee Systems Growth Policy Planning nomic and Market Analysis MUNIES, FISCALS & CRlM Fiscal impact systems lord for each community m FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL PLAN CITY OF CAFUSBAD December 1991 1 I I I I I I 1 I 1 1 I -, I 1 1 I 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page No. I. Executive Summary 1 11. Economic Analysis & Alternative Scenarios 7 I 111. Overall Methodology & Major Assumptions 11 IV. Fiscal Results to General Fund 14 A. Average Annual 20 Year Results 14 €4. Annual Fiscal Results 15 C. Cumulative Fiscal Results 22 1. Major General Fund Revenues 23 2. Major General Fund Costs 29 V. Fiscal Results to Capital Funds B. Park-In Lieu Fund 44 A. Public Facility Fund 39 1 C. Traffic Impact Fund 45 APPENDICES - BUDGET SUMMARIES Tischler & Associa i I I I. Executive Summary This report discusses the fiscal impacts of growth under the City’s Generz Plan and Growth Management Program between 1992 and 2011, and again betwee, 2011 and buildout. The fiscal impacts are the net costs or revenues from nev development on the City’s General Fund and three of its Capital Funds -- Public I I Facility, Park In-Lieu, and Traffic Impact. Thii section summarizes the full fisca report which follows in Sections I1 through V. Each section is discussed in turn. A. As part of this analysis, Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) of San Diego prepared a Land Use Economic Analysis for Carlsbad. KMA recommended that tht analysis focus on two land use alternatives, called Optimistic and Achievable. Bot1 alternatives include average annual nonresidential absorption of over 600,000 squan feet. The Achievable Scenario, however, assumes 40% fewer retail square feet including the absence of a second regional mall and major new auto dealerships. The result is that by 2011, the City would have 13.6 million more nonresidential square feet under the Optimistic Scenario, and 12.5 million more square feet under the Achievable alternative. These represent increases over the 13.8 million square fool 1991 base of 99% and 91% respectively. Economic Analysis and Alternative Scenarios I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I Nonresidential buildout will be reached by the year 2040. By that time the Optimistic Scenario projects a total of 34.3 million additional square feet, and the Achievable alternative a cumulative increase of 29.9 million square feet. Under the City’s General Plan and Growth Management Program, residential buildout is projected to occur by 2013. KMA projects average annual absorption of 1,111 dwelling units under both alternatives. Therefore, by buildout the City will contain over 24,000 more units, or an increase of 89% over the 1990 Census estimate of 24,995. Using the 2.47 average household size, also from the 1990 Census, by residential buildout Carlsbad’s population will increase by over 60,OOO or 87% over the 1990 estimate of 63,126. -I These projections are discussed in more detail in Section I1 of this report. Tischler & Associal I 1 II I 1 I I I I 1 I I 1 B. Major Assumptions This fiscal analysis calculates the cash flow to the General Fund and Capit; Funds from new development. It assumes constant 1991 dollars. The analysi includes the current level of services as reflected in the FY91 Operating Budget an Capital Improvement Program, which were the documents in use at the time of dat collection. 1 The assumptions used in this analysis are detailed in TA’s report entitled “Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions.” The methodology and majo assumptions, as well as TA’s FISCALS system, are discussed in Section 111 of thi report. C. As the annual results in Table 1 and Figure 1 indicate, growth generates ne revenues to the General Fund in 19 out of 20 years under the Optimistic Scenario and 18 out of 20 years under the Achievable Scenario. On a 20 year annual averagc basis, net revenues are $5.9 million for the Optimistic alternative, and $3.7 million fo the Achievable alternative. On a cumulative basis net revenues to the General Fun( are $118.6 million under the Optimistic Scenario and $73.4 million under thc Achievable Scenario. Fiscal Results to General Fund The main reason for these net revenues is nonresidential development. Unde the Optimistic Scenario net revenues from new Office, Industrial and Commercia (Retail) uses are $149.6 million on a 20 year basis. Without this nonresidentia development, the cumulative fiscal results to the General Fund would be net costs rather than net revenues. The fiscal implication for the City is that a balance o residential and nonresidential development is desirable. Within nonresidentia development, Office and Retail uses are more fiscally beneficial due to their highe market values and generation of Sales Taxes and other revenues. 1, I -0 A detailed discussion of General Fund results, including major costs an( revenues, follows in Section IV of this report. I I I 2 Tischler & Associa I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I -I I I 1 3 I Table 1 Annual Fiscal Results to General Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) I Net Revenues or Costs Scenario Optimistic Achievable Year 1 $ 1.0 $ 0.8 2 1.0 0.6 3 (0.1) (0-8) 4 0.7 (0.2) 5 1.3 0.2 6 2.4 1.1 7 3.4 1.9 8 4.3 2.6 9 5.1 3.2 10 5.9 3.8 11 6.6 4.3 12 6.5 3.9 13 7.5 4.7 14 8.5 5.5 15 9.0 5.8 16 10.0 6.6 17 10.2 6.5 18 11.1 7.3 19 12.0 8.0 20 12.0 7.7 I Buildout 33.4 21.6 Source: TA FISCALS Output, November 1991. Tischler & Assoc 1 I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I,.. I I 1 2, 4 1 H 8 - - - - -z c\1 - t Q) > - b) - 7-4 1 % 4 - 4 m _I e m -z :E - 8 s e4 - 0 *g - 23 e. L4 a% - l Oh ma Ol-4 a \o -cn m A i - 'S 3 d - Ls 5 32 m ccc c, ed lo ~6* n 1 4 w 0 - 4 cn 0 m .% t+ e e4 0 00 \o * c\10 ell+ €e*# 2 e4 2 $3 8 UE 44 H€e€e€e€e€e€? 8 C v1 I I I D. This analysis includes a discussion of the fiscal results to three of the City major Capital Funds. These results are summarized below and discussed in Sectio V of this report. It should be noted that, because nonresidential buildout is projecte for the year 2040, buildout results are not discussed for the PFF and TIF fund Rather, these fiscal results are discussed for the 20 year analysis period, or 1992 1 2011. This is because TA does not believe the impact of almost 20 million mor square feet of nonresidential land uses between 2011 and 2040 has been full reflected in the City’s CP. On the other hand, residential buildout only exceeds th 20 year analysis period by 2 years. Therefore buildout results to the PIL Fund a1 discussed below. Fiscal Results to Capital Funds 1 1 I I 1 I I I 8 I I I I I I 1. Public Facility Fund Fiscal results to the Public Facility Fund (PFF) show net costs in 6 years an1 net revenues in 14 out of 20 years. In actuality the City’s policy is to stag. construction of major public facilities when adequate fees have been collected. Or a cumulative basis PFF fees exceed capital costs by $14.3 million under the Optimistic Scenario and $13.8 million under the Achievable Scenario. On a 20 year averagc annual basis net revenues are $0.7 million for both alternatives. 2. Park In-Lieu Fund The Park In-Lieu Fund (PIL) is collected by quadrant. In this analysis fee: were calculated based on dwelling units by quadrant from the Citywide Phasini Projections in the Growth Management Program’s Comprehensive Monitorinl Report. These revenues were then compared to costs for park land to be acquired with PL fees, as shown in the CIP. Both costs and revenues are the same for the two alternatives. Citywide, costs exceed revenues by $2.2 million by the year 2011, and by $1.9 million by residential buildout. The Northwest has 20 year cumulative costs of $1.66 million; the Northeast costs of $0.5 million; the Southeast costs of $0.1 million; and the Southwest has 20 year cumulative net revenues of $0.02 million. Within quadrants, the net results vary. I 5 Tischler & Associat I I I 3. Traffic Impact Fund Traffic Impact Fees (TIF) are collected by district. The Carlsbad District, c northern two-thirds of the City, shows 20 year cumulative net costs of $4.0 millio under the Optimistic Scenario and $4.1 million under the Achievable Scenario. Th La Costa District, or southern one-third of the City, shows 20 year cumulative nt costs of $1.4 million under the Optimistic Scenario, and $1.42 million under thc I I Achievable Scenario. Citywide the 20 year cumulative net costs to the TIF are $5. million under the Optimistic Scenario and $5.5 million under the Achievabl I Scenario. Capital costs to the TIF are from the FY91 CIP. Residential fees wer calculated based on the Growth Management Program. Nonresidential fees wer calculated based on KMA's estimates of remaining square feet by zone. Because th Achievable Scenario contains 1.1 million fewer square feet of retail space by the yea 2011, its TIF revenues are lower and hence cumulative net costs are higher. I I I I 1 I I I I. -, I 1 I I 6 Tischler & ASSOCE 1 I 1 11. Economic Analysis and Alternative Scenarios As part of the analysis of the General Plan, Keyser Marston Associates, Inc (KMA) of San Diego, prepared a Land Use Economic Analysis for Carlsbad. Thi report and subsequent memoranda issued by KMA suggested that the analysis focu on two alternative scenarios. The first scenario, which KMA calls Optimistic, assume continued aggressive capture of retail land uses between now and buildout. Th second scenario, which KMA calls Achievable, assumes a more passive posture o the part of the City vis-a-vis nonresidential development. Specifically, the Achievabl Scenario lacks a second regional mall andsignificant new auto dealerships which wer included in the Optimistic Scenario. I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I Office 150,000 150,Ooo I, I 1 1 Using KMA's average annual square feet, nonresidential buildout under bot1 alternatives should occur by the year 2040. KMA estimates that 20% of ne\ nonresidential uses will be public or institutional. For purposes of this mode nonresidential market values were adjusted downward to account for such ta exemption in the calculation of real property taxes. The table below shows KMA's projections of average annual nonresidentia absorption by type of land use for the two scenarios. Nonresidential Average Annual Absorption Land Use (Square Feet) Scenario Outimistic Achievable Industrial 389,000 389,000 143,000 85,800 Commer cia1 I Total 682,000 624,800 -, 7 Tischler & Assocr I I I TA's FISCALS model has calculated the increased square feet between 199: and 2011, and between 2011 and buildout. The table below shows these increase for the two scenarios. Increased Nonresidential Land Uses in Millions of Square Feet I I Optimistic Achievable Analysis Period Scenario 1992 to 2011 13.64 12.5 201 1 to Buildout 20.64 17.4 I Total 34.28 29.9 I I I I I I I I 1 I 8 I KMA estimates the City's nonresidential square feet as of January 1991 as 13 million. Therefore under the Optimistic Scenario this land use would increase k 99% over the next 20 years. Under the Achievable Scenario nonresidential us( would increase by 91% over the same time period. Based on the increased nonresidential land uses shown above, TA's FISCAL model calculated increased employment under the two scenarios. This calculatic used KMA's estimates of square feet per employee, as follows: Office, 250; Ret2 286; and Industrial, 713. The result is increased employment as shown below. Increased Employment Scenario Analysis Period I Optimistic - Achievable 1992 to 2011 32,912 28,912 2011 to Buildout 49,811 40,304 I Total 82,723 69,216 The City's estimated 1991 employment is 32,826. Therefore the projectc increase in employment under the Optimistic Scenario for the first 20 years is 100: Tischler & Assoc I 1 I I by 2013. Under the Achievable Scenario, the projected increase in employment is 88% ovc the same time period. Under both scenarios, KMA projects average annual residential demand i 1,111 units per year. At that rate of absorption, residential buildout will be reache According to the Housing Element of the General Plan, under existing zonin 47.4% of new units will be single family and 52.6% multi-family, including townho ses. It should be noted that these percentages are slightly different from tho, projected by KMA (48.8% and 5 1.2%). Wherever possible, adopted City policy su( as the General Plan or the Growth Management Program was used to suppleme KMA's findings in this analysis. For example, the Citywide Phasing Projections frc the Growth Management Program's Comprehensive Monitoring Report were us to calculate dwelling units for Park In-Lieu Fees and for Planning Fees. I I I I I I I I I I I 9 I Based on average annual dwelling units and average household size of 2. from the 1990 Census, following are the projected increases in population a housing used in the analysis. Increased Residential Development I Analysis Period Dwelling Units Population - 1992 to 2011 22,220 54,883 2011 to Buildout 2,222 5,488 1 Total 24,442 60,371 It should be noted that TA's FISCALS model calculated population il different manner from KMA. That is, KMA assumed an average household sizt 2.42, a 5% housing vacancy rate, and 1.46% of population in group quarters. In analysis no additional group residences have been projected, nor has a vacancy I been included. TA has used the Census average household size in this analysis -5 I Tischler & Assc I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 1 I:, -,' I I I I order to more closely approximate the City's previously projected buildout population Under TA's projections, over the next 20 years, Carlsbad's population wil increase 87% over the 1990 Census figure of 63,126. Dwelling units will increase 89% over their estimated number in the 1990 Census, 24,995. 1 10 Tischler & ASSO( I 1 111. Overall Methodology and Major Assumptions A. In order to provide an understanding of the overall methodology used in th The FISCALS Process and Data Input Categories 1 I fiscal impact analysis, a brief explanation of the FISCALS process follows. There are three types of input data. The first category of demomaphi economic projections is called Demand Base data inputs. These numeric projections include data such as population, housing units, and commercial spac The projections are made through the 20 year study period (1992 to 2011), and aga to buildout, for purposes of comparison. It is essential to understand that these la1 use and demographic projections constitute the analytical base for the entire fisc impact analysis. That is, virtually all cost and revenue projections are derived fro the demand base data, both on an annual and cumulative basis. This information w developed by Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA), and is described in Section of this report. The projections are also shown in the appendices at the end of tl report, and are described in KMA's report entitled, "Land Use Economic Analysi The second general type of input data focuses on propertv tax revenur Estimated market values of new residential and nonresidential property in the Ci expressed in constant 1991 dollars, are multiplied by the City's share of the propel tax (19%) under California law, to calculate property tax revenues from nc development. I 1 I I I 1 I 1 1 I I I I 1 The third type of input data relates to the government service levels, costs a revenues. The service level, cost and revenue data used in this analysis we determined and agreed upon by TA and City staff, through interviews and writt communications. This data has been used by TA to design the FISCALS system j the City to calculate the annual costs, revenues and capital facilities by departmc or function, where appropriate. These assumptions are contained in TA's documt entitled, "Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions." I ,. ~I' , 11 Tischler & Assoc I I I The last step in the fiscal process is to use FISCALS to calculate the fisca impacts of new development on the City’s General Fund, and on three of its Capita Funds -- TIF, PFF and Park In-Lieu. Budget summaries for each of the twc alternative scenarios and each of the funds are included in the appendices to thi I report, B. Major Assumptions This fiscal impact analysis can be regarded as a snapshot of the currer budget. The FY91 (July 1, 1990 - June 30, 1991) Operating Budget and Capit, Improvement Program figures have been used to represent a snapshot of the City current costs and revenues and level of services. These are the documents whic were available at the time of data collection. Constant 1991 dollars are use throughout the study. 1 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 The following major assumptions regarding the fiscal methodology should 1 noted. 1. Incremental, Growth-Related Costs and Revenues For this analysis, costs and revenues which are directly attributable to a development are included. In a number of cases, the data used are average cos based on a decision by the local staff and TA that this is the best informati1 available. For example, operating costs for some Recreation programs are expect to increase with residential development, with population used as a proxy. So1 costs are not expected to be affected by growth and are fixed in this analysis, such the City Council. Carlsbad is unique in our experience in that, under its Grov Management Program, the marginal impact of growth has already been addressed the Capital Improvement Program. That is, the need for most new facilities i residential buildout has already been estimated by City staff. This permitted TA use the CIP rather than, for example, calculating the need for new parks based population thresholds and service level standards. 2. Level of Service 1. J -4 The cost projections are based on the assumption that the current level service, as shown in the FY91 budget, will continue throughout the analysis perj 1 12 Tischler & Assc I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 3. Revenue Structure and Tax Rates Revenues are projected assuming that the current revenue structure and ti rates, as defined by the FY91 budget, will not change during the analysis period. 4. Inflation Rate I The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero throughout the projection perk and cost and revenue projections are in constant 1991 dollars. This assumption is accord with current budget data and avoids the difficulty of interpreting resu expressed in inflated dollars. 5. Non-Fiscal Evaluations At this point, it should be noted that, while fiscal impact analysis is : important consideration in planning decisions, it is only one of several issues whi should be considered. Environmental and social issues should also be considere The above notwithstanding, this study will enable all interested parties to understa the possible fiscal implications of growth. m 13 Tischler & Asso I 1 W. Fiscal Results to General Fund The impact of new development in Carlsbad on General Fund expenses an revenues is discussed in this section. Fiscal results are shown in the following orde 20 year annual average; annual; and cumulative. The cumulative fiscal results a1 I I discussed in terms of major costs and reyenues to the General Fund. A. By the year 2011, or at the end of the 20 year analysis period, the averaf annual fiscal results to the General Fund under the Optimistic Scenario are n revenues of $5.9 million. Under the Achievable Scenario the 20 year average annL results are net revenues of $3.7 million. These results are shown in Table 2 belo Average Annual Twenty Year Results I 1 1 I I I I 1 1 I I I Table 2 Average Annual General Fund 20 Year Fiscal Results (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) Scenario Outimistic Achievable I Average Annual Expenses $11.6 $11.5 Average Annual Revenues $17.5 $15.2 Net Revenues $ 5.9 $ 3.7 I Percent of FY91 Budget 13.4% 8.4% On a 20 year average annual basis, General Fund costs under the Optimi Scenario are almost $22,000 higher than under the Achievable Scenario. This is ( to the fact that the only difference between the two alternatives is that Achievable Scenario has 40% fewer commercial (retail) square feet. This result lower costs for nonresidential inspection by the Fire Marshal's staff and for St Maintenance. -I Offsetting these slightly higher General Fund costs are revenues which are : million higher under the Optimistic Scenario on a 20 year average annual basis. this total, Sales Taxes are over $2 million higher due to 1.1 million more square I 14 Tischier & Ass1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I of retail space under the Optimistic Scenario between 1992 and 2011. The remainin differences in 20 year average annual revenues are made up of Property Taxe $132,ooO, Transient Occupancy Taxes, $81,000; Business Licenses, $36,000; Transfc Taxes, $3,650; and Construction Permits and Building Department Fees, $1,423. B. Annual Fiscal Results Table 3 and Figure 1 on the following pages show the annual net revenues ( I net expenses for the two scenarios. When projected General Fund spending compared to property taxes and other revenues from new development, tl. Optimistic Scenario shows annual net revenues in all but year 3. The Achievable Scenario shows annual net revenues in all but years 3 and 4. The reason for the: results is that, in the early years of the analysis period, revenues from nc development have not accrued in advance of required spending. For example, year 3 or 1994, the Fire Department projects the acquisition of a ladder truck costi $600,000 to purchase and $641,000 per year to operate. These operating co: include the following: $603,000 per year for salaries, benefits, overtime a Maintenance & Operation (M&O) for 9 firefighters; Vehicle Maintenance costs $8,000 per year; and Vehicle Replacement costs of $30,000 per year. Another impact on the fiscal results in the early years is a Mobile Intensj Care Unit (MICU or ambulance) in year 4 or 1995. The MICU costs $70,000 acquire and $655,000 per year to operate. These operating costs include t following: $625,000 per year for salaries, benefits, overtime and Maintenance Operation for 9 paramedics; Vehicle Maintenance costs of $12,000 per year; a Vehicle Replacement costs of $17,500 per year. Also under the Fire Department in year 4, an Emergency Medical Servi Coordinator and Educator is added. Salary and benefits for this position total o I, $54,000 per year. -, 15 I Tischler & Assc 1 8 I I I I I I I' I I 1 I. -I I 1 I 1 Table 3 Annual Fiscal Results to General Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) I Net Revenues or Costs Scenario Optimistic Achievable Year 1 $ 1.0 $ 0.8 2 1.0 0.6 3 (0.1) (0.8) 4 0.7 (0-2) 5 1.3 0.2 6 2.4 1.1 7 3.4 1.9 8 4.3 2.6 9 5.1 3.2 10 5.9 3.8 11 6.6 4.3 12 6.5 3.9 13 7.5 4.7 14 8.5 5.5 15 9.0 5.8 16 10.0 6.6 17 10.2 6.5 18 11.1 7.3 19 12.0 8.0 20 12.0 7.7 I Buildout 33.4 21.6 Source: TA FISCALS Output, November 1991. 16 Tischler & Assc 1 F-4 I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1. I 1 I Other significant cost increases in the early years include the opening of ti South Carlsbad Library in year 2 or 1993. Operating costs for the library itself w be $948,000 per year. This includes the following: salaries and benefits for 10 ne staff, $329,000; Facilities Maintenance, $553,120; and Grounds Maintenance, $66,00 In addition, with the opening of the library, part-time Media Services staff will 1 added to manage the auditorium and operate the Cable TV studio. This cost will 1 $8,000 per year. The new library will also contain an art gallery for which tl Director of Cultural Arts projects operating costs of $122,000 per year. This includ salary and benefits for the Gallery Director, $48,000, Maintenance & Operation f the Gallery, $63,000; and part-time guards and exhibit preparators, $11,000. I Also under Cultural Arts in year 4, the Director expects to make the Pub1 Art Coordinator position full-time for an annual increased cost of $34,000. The existing library (Cole) will be renovated after South Carlsbad opens. TI Library Director projects Cole to reopen in year 3 or 1994. Salaries and benefits fc 24.5 new staff at Cole will cost $564,000 per year. (This is to replace staff now Cole who are expected to transfer to South Carlsbad in 1993.) The collection for tl Cole Library will be expanded in year 1 at a cost of $400,000. Another significant cost in the early years of the analysis period is for Pa Maintenance. By year 3 or 1994, based on the projects in the FT91 CIP, the City w be maintaining over 124 additional acres. This land will be in the following par1 Larwin, Alta Mira, Alga Norte, Aviara, and Leo Carillo. At $11,000 per aci additional Park Maintenance costs are $1.4 million by year 3. Under Utilities & Maintenance, the City will need to purchase hea7 equipment (a dump truck and Grade All) costing $230,000 in year 2. This equipme is needed under new EPA requirements. Associated operating costs will be $103,(H per year beginning in year 2, for truck operators, Vehicle Replacement and Vehic Maintenance. I Tables 4 and 5 below compare General Fund revenues and costs projected fi the Optimistic Scenario in the year 20 or 2011 to their amounts in the FY91 Budgt 18 Tischler & Assoc 1 I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I 1 I. -I I I Table 4 Increased General Fund Revenues Compared to Fy91 Budget Optimistic Scenario (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) FY91 Budget Year 20 % of FY91 Amount Proiection Budget Property Tax $12.4 $12.6 101.6 Sales Tax 11.0 9.6 87.3 Transient Tax 3.7 3.4 91.9 Franchise Tax 0.7 0.6 85.7 Transfer Tax 0.4 0.2 50.0 Construction Permits & Bldg. Dept. Fees 1.6 1.2 75.0 Business Lics. 0.9 0.8 88.9 Other Licenses 0.3 0.3 100.0 Vehicle In-Lieu 2.3 1.5 65.2 Gas Tax 0.9 0.8 88.9 Planning Fees 0.8 0.05 6.3 Ambulance Fees 0.2 0.2 100.0 Other Charges 0.5 0.4 80.0 Fines & Forfeits. 0.6 0.5 83.3 I Total $363* $32.15 88.6 *Note: Does not include sources regarded as fixed in this analysis. See TA’s rep0 “Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions,’’ for detail. 1 19 I Ttschler & Assoc I I 1 Table 4 shows that, except for Planning Fees and Transfer Taxes, Gener Fund revenues are projected to increase from 65% (Vehicle In-Lieu Taxes) to 102' (Property Taxes) of their FY91 levels. The reason for these increases is tk projected increases in the bases for calculating these revenues: populatio employment, dwelling units, and nonresidential square feet. As discussed in Sectic I1 of this report, each of these demand bases is projected to increase from betwet 87% and 100% over the next 20 years. I 1 I 1 I I I I I 1 I In this model Planning Fees were calculated only for projected ne development. Many of the larger fees would have already been collected by the ye 2011, or 2 years before residential buildout. Therefore in year 20 this source is on 6% of its estimated level in FY91. Likewise, in this model Transfer Taxes were only calculated for projected ne development. In actuality, the City collects this revenue on resales of existii property. Based on discussions with the City, therefore, in year 20 Transfer Tax are only 50% of their estimated FY91 level. Table 5 below compares projected year 20 General Fund costs to tht amounts in the FY91 Budget. This shows that, where services and facilities mi expand directly to serve new residents, such as Libraries and Parks, costs will almc double over the analysis period (94.6% of the N91 level for Culture and Recreatic is reached by year 20). Where there is existing capacity to accommodate new development, such in Public Safety and Utilities & Maintenance (U&M), projected cost increases are n so high. For example, the City does not expect to build new Fire or Police statioi Public Safety costs in year 2011 are estimated as 57.6% over their FY91 levels, wh U&M costs increase 57.1% over the same time period. 1 I As discussed in further detail below, General Government functions a expected to be able to absorb growth without significant direct expansion. Therefc by the year 2011 these costs are projected to increase by 15.5% over their FY91 lev Finally, as also discussed below, many of the functions under Developme Services primarily exist to accommodate new residential and nonresident -8 I I 20 I Tischler & Assoc I I I I I I I Fire 6.3 3.3 I I I I I I 1 21 I 1 construction. Therefore, by year 20, these costs are projected to increase by 6.44 over their amount in the FY91 Budget. Table 5 Increased General Fund Costs Compared to FY91 Budget Optimistic Scenario (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) FY91 Budget Year 20 % of FY91 Amount Proiection Budget Budget General Govt. & $ 7.1 $ 1.1 15.5 Nondeptl. Public Safety $15.1 $ 8.7 57.6 Police 8.9 5.4 Developmt. Svcs. 1 & Bldg. Insp. $ 7.8 $ 0.5 6.4 Culture & Rec. $ 7.4 $ 7.0 94.6 Library 3.0 2.1 Parks 4.4 4.9 I Utils. & Maint. $ 4.9 $ 2.8 57.1 Total $423* $20.1 47.5 *Note: Does not include Contingencies of $1.7 million in FY91 Budget. 1. -,' r Tischler & ASSO( 1 I I I 1 I I I I C. Cumulative Fiscal Results Table 6 below shows the cumulative results to the General Fund for the twc scenarios. This shows that revenues generated by new development exceed costs b I $118.6 million under the Optimistic Scenario and $73.4 million under the Achievabl Scenario, cumulatively between 1992 and 2011. The reasons for the difference i results are discussed below under costs and revenues to the General Fund. Table 6 Cumulative 20 Year Fiscal Results to General Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) Scenario ODtimistic Achievable I Cumulative Expenses $231.4 $230.9 Cumulative Revenues 350.0 304.3 Net Revenues $118.6 $ 73.4 The main reason that both scenarios generate cumulative net revenues to tt General Fund, is the assumed level of new nonresidential development of ovt 600,000 square feet per year. These projections were developed by KMA based c Carlsbad’s average annual absorption during the last half of the 1980s. The resulth increase in nonresidential land use of 13.6 million square feet, or 99% over the 1% base, generates 20 year cumulative net revenues to the General Fund of $149 million under the Optimistic Scenario. These nonresidential revenues exceed tl cumulative net revenues for this alternative by over $31 million. The implication fi the City is that average annual nonresidential absorption can drop below the leve of the 198Os, as long as new development is balanced among Office, Retail a1 Industrial uses. Office and Retail uses are more fiscally beneficial due to their high1 market values and generation of Sales Taxes and other revenues. I 1 1 I I I I I 22 Tischler & Assoc I I I 1. Major General Fund Revenues Table 7 shows 20 year cumulative totals for major revenues for the two scenaric These totals are revenues generated by new development, and are in addition FY91 General Fund revenues. The table and this discussion are in roughly the san order as the City's Revenue Estimates shown on pages 25 through 30 of the FY Budget. It should be noted that several General Fund revenues are not projected increase with growth, and are therefore not included in this analysis. For a detailc listing of excluded revenues and for the bases of calculating the included revenuc refer to TA's document entitled, "Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions. I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I a. Taxes For the Optimistic Scenario this category of revenues totals $278.4 million, I almost 80% of the 20 year cumulative total for General Fund revenues of $3! million. For the Achievable Scenario, Taxes total $233.9 million, or almost 77% cumulative revenues of $304 million. (1) Property Taxes The largest source of taxes -- and indeed of General Fund revenues -- Property Taxes. For the Optimistic Scenario these are $132.3 million or almost 38 of the cumulative total. For the Achievable Scenario Property Taxes are $125 million or almost 43% of the cumulative total. The cumulative difference in Proper Taxes, $2.6 million, is due to 1.1 million more retail square feet in the former. I I, . -< I 23 I Tischler & Assoc 1 1 I I I I 1 I I 1 1 I I I. I I I 1 Table 7 Cumulative Revenues to General Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) 20 Year Cumulative Totals Scenario Optimistic Achievable Amount Percent Amount Percent Taxes Property Tax $132.3 37.8 $129.6 42.6 Sales Tax 100.6 28.8 60.4 19.8 Transient Tax 35.5 10.2 33.9 11.1 Franchise Tax 6.4 1.8 6.4 2.1 Transfer Tax 3.6 1.0 3.6 1.2 Licenses & Permits Construction Permits & Business Licenses 8.6 2.5 7.9 2.6 Other Licenses & Permits 2.7 0.8 2.7 0.9 State Subventions Vehicle In-Lieu $ 15.4 4.4 15.4 5.1 Gas Tax 8.5 2.4 8.5 2.8 Charges for Services Planning Fees $ 1.8 0.5 1.8 0.6 Ambulance Fees 2.1 0.6 2.1 0.7 Other Charges or Fees 4.3 1.2 4.3 1.4 I Fines & Forfeitures $ 5.0 1.4 5.0 1.7 100.0 Bldg. Dept. Fees $ 23.1 6.6 $ 22.7 7.4 TOTAL $350.0 100.0 $3043 Source: TA's FISCALS Output, November 1991. 24 Tischler & Assol 1 1 For this analysis, Property Taxes were calculated by multiplying the City share, 19%, times 1% of market value. Neither increases in collections due 1 inflation nor to resale were included here. I I Market values were developed by KMA. For dwelling units these values we] weighted by TA based on the distribution of units remaining to be built according 1 the Housing Element of the General Plan. For nonresidential square feet the! values were discounted by 20%, to account for KMA's estimate of future public ar institutional uses. The result is 1991 market values for new construction as follow I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I -I -, I 1 Dwelling Units Single Family $345,275 Multi-Family $159,504 Office $100 Retail $116 Industrial $64 Nonresidential Square Foot In order to avoid overestimating this revenue, property taxes were n calculated on vacant land. (2) Sales Taxes The second largest source of taxes and of General Fund revenues is Sal Taxes. Because this source is projected to increase as a function of square feet retail space, it is $40.2 million higher under the Optimistic than under the Achievat: Scenario. Sales Taxes are $100.6 million and almost 29% of cumulative Gene1 Fund revenues under the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Achievable Scenario Sal Taxes are $60.4 million and almost 20% of the cumulative total. I (3) Transient Occupancy Tax The third largest source of taxes and of General Fund revenues is tl Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT). As part of their Land Use Economic Analys KMA did not provide separate projections for hotels and motels as a commerc: land use. To quote KMA, " ... demand for new hotel rooms is largely a function statewide or national economic conditions ... As a result, it is difficult to project wj any accuracy the market for new hotel rooms in Carlsbad." 1 25 I Tischler & Assoc I 1 I I I 1 I I II 1 I I I I 1 In order to estimate this revenue, TA has projected it to increase with bot1 population and employment. Because net new jobs are 4,000 higher under thi Optimistic than the Achievable Scenario by the year 2011, revenue from TOT is $1~ I million greater over the 20 year period. Under the Optimistic Scenario this SOUTC is $35.5 million and 10% of cumulative General Fund Revenues. Achievable Scenario TOT is $33.9 million and 11% of the cumulative total. Under th I (4) Franchise Tax The source of this revenue is sales by gas, electric and cable TV companie It is projected to increase with population and is therefore the same under bot alternatives, $6.4 million and around 2% of 20 year cumulative General Fun revenues. (5) Transfer Tax In this model this revenue is calculated at $0.55 per $1,000 of the market vali of new development. As with the Property Tax, resales are not included. Becau, of the 1.1 million more square feet under the Optimistic Scenario, Transfer Taxes a $0.07 million higher under this alternative. For both scenarios Transfer Taxes a around $3.6 million and 1% of 20 year cumulative General Fund revenues. b. Licenses and Permits In the FY91 Budget, Construction Permits are shown under this category ai Building Department Fees are shown under the category of Charges for Services. the fiscal model, both revenues are calculated per type of dwelling unit (single fam and multi-family) and per nonresidential square foot (office, industrial and retaj Therefore the first revenue discussed in this category is a combined one, Constructi Permits and Building Department Fees. (1) Construction Permits & Building Dept. Fees Construction or building permits were calculated as a function of build valuation times average-sized housing for new dwelling units, and times square fi for new nonresidential space. Building Department Fees (Plumbing, Electrical a Mechanical Permits) were estimated by the City's Building Official to increase 1 new dwelling unit and per nonresidential square foot. I.-, -4' 1 26 Tischler & Asso 1 I I 1 under the Achievable Scenario. Because of the Optimistic Scenario’s additional 1.1 million retail square f these revenues are $0.4 million greater on a 20 year cumulative basis. Construci Permits and Building Department Fees are $23.1 million and 6.6% of total Geni Fund revenues under the Optimistic Scenario, and $22.7 million and 7.4% of the t (2) Business Licenses This revenues was projected to increase with nonresidential developmer the City. Again, because of the greater number of retail square feet under Optimistic Scenario, revenue from Business Licenses is $0.7 million higher on I year cumulative basis than under the Achievable Scenario. For the Optim Scenario this revenue is $8.6 million and 2.5% of the total; for the Achiev; Scenario, it is $7.9 million and 2.6% of 20 year cumulative General Fund reven I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I (3) Other Licenses and Permits This categoIy includes a number of sources which were projected to incrc with population. Because projected new dwelling units and population are the s( under both alternatives, Other Licenses and Permits are also the same: $8.6 mil and almost 1% of total General Fund revenues on a 20 year cumulative basis. c, State Subventions The second revenue discussed here is the Gas Tax, which is shown UI Capital Funds in the FY91 Budget. Because it is used to offset the costs General Funded activity, street maintenance, and because it is a State-sh revenue, the Gas Tax is grouped here in the fiscal model. (1) Vehicle In-Eeu Tax This revenue is distriiuted by the State based on the value of automol owned by residents of Carlsbad. For this analysis it was projected to increase t partial per capita basis. Because projected population increases are the samc both alternatives, Vehicle In-Lieu Taxes are also the same: $15.4 million on year cumulative basis. For the Optimistic Scenario this is 4.4% of the total; foi Achievable alternative, 5.1% of the total. -I I 27 1 Tischler & Ass IE I (2) Gas Tax This State-shared revenue was projected to increase with population and therefore the same under both alternatives: $8.5 million on a 20 year cumulati basis. For the Optimistic Scenario this is 2.4% of total General Fund revenues; j the Achievable alternative, 2.8% of the total. I 1 I d. Charges for Services Of the revenues in this category in the FY91 Budget, Building Departmt Fees were discussed above with Construction Permits. Engineering Fees have I been included under the assumption that they would be offset by operating costs professional services. Zone Plan Fees are included with Planning Fees which L discussed below. Weed Cleaning Fees are not expected to increase with nc development and therefore are fixed in this analysis. Recreation Fees were deduct from the City's operating costs for fee-supported recreation programs. Thc revenues in this category- which are projected to increase with growth are discuss below. I I I I I 1 I I 1 I, 1 I I (1) Planning Fees This category includes the following sources: Facilities Management FI Environmental Impact Report, Master Plan or Specific Plan, General PI Amendment, Tentative Tract Maps, Planned Development Fee, and Site Develc ment Plan. These revenues have been projected based on information from Plann and Growth Management sw such as the Citywide Phasing Projections in 1 Comprehensive Monitoring Report. These projections were used to calcul; dwelling units remaining to buildout, by zone and quadrant of the City. The revenues are also based on KMA's estimates of undeveloped nonresidential acres zone and by quadrant. The only source which is sensitive to nonresidential squr feet, Site Development Plans, has been conservatively estimated at $5,250 per ye Because the projected average annual absorption of total nonresidential square ft is only 9% less under the Achievable Scenario, Planning Fees have been assumed be the same under both alternatives: $1.8 million on a 20 year cumulative basis, almost 1% of total General Fund revenues. 28 -8 I Tischler & Assor I I (2) Ambulance Fees This revenue has been projected to increase with population, and is therefc the same under both scenarios: $2.1 million on a 20 year cumulative basis, or almc 1% of total General Fund revenues. I I (3) Other Charges or Fees This revenue is also projected to increase with population, and is therefore 1 same under both alternatives: $4.3 million or slightly over 1% of 20 year cumulat General Fund revenues. I I 1 I I I I I I I e. Fines and Forfeitures Revenues in this final category are also projected to increase with populati and are the same under both scenarios: $5.0 million and between 1% and 2% of year cumulative General Fund revenues. 2. Major General Fund Expenses Table 8 shows 20 year cumulative totals for major expenses for the ' scenarios. These totals are costs generated by new development, and are in addii to FY91 General Fund expenditures. The table and this discussion are in roughly same order as the City's Expenditure Schedule shown on pages 21 and 22 of FY91 Budget. A number of expenditures are not projected to increase due to 1 development. These costs are found in the General Government area, where sc centralized functions are anticipated to be able to absorb growth. These include following offices: City Council, City Manager, Public Information, City Clerk, C Management, Audit, and Research. Under Nondepartmental expenditures, ( Animal Regulation is projected to increase due to growth. The rest of this catel is expected to remain stable or to increase due to inflation or other factors which not the focus of this analysis. 1 *-, Another category in which costs are not projected to increase significant Development Services, including Building Inspection. This is due to the fact thai I main purpose of many of these functions is to serve new development. There existing staff and existing levels of spending are expected to be able to absorb I 1 of the impacts of growth. I 29 -I Tischler & Ass I I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I 1 I I I Table 8 Cumulative Expenses to General Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) 20 Year Cumulative Totals Scenario Optimistic Achievable Amount Percent Amount Percent General Government & Nondepartmental $ 11.8 5.1 $ 11.8 5.1 Public Safety 1 Police $ 53.9 23.3 $ 53.9 23.3 $ 32.8 14.2 Fire $ 33.1 14.3 Development Services & Bldg. Inspection $ 6.2 2.7 $ 6.2 2.7 Culture & Recreation I Library $ 35.0 15.1 $ 35.0 15.2 Parks & Rec $ 58.3 25.2 $ 58.3 25.3 Utilities & Maint. $ 33.0 14.3 $ 32.8 14.2 TOTAL $2313 100.0 $230.8 100.0* *Note: Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: TA's FISCALS Output, November 1991. I 30 Tischler & Ass01 I I I 1 1 I I I I i I I I For a detailed discussion of costs included in this analysis, refer to TL document entitled, "Senice Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions." a. General Government 2% Nondepartmental This category of costs is the same for both alternatives, $11.8 million and 5.3 of 20.year cumulative General Fund expenses. Of this total, over $8.5 million or 7; is for salaries and benefits, broken down as follows: $4.0 million for the C Attorney's office; $2.5 million for the Finance Department; and $2.0 million for st in Human Resources and Information Systems. By the year 20 or 2011, there will 18 new staff in the General Government category. I Opening of the New City Hall in 2002 generates additional Facilities Main nance costs of $227,000. On a cumulative basis these General Government cc total $2.3 million. Animal Regulation is another $0.8 million on a 20 year cumulat basis. The remaining $0.2 million of 20 year cumulative General Government cost for furniture and equipment for new City staff, as described above. b. Public Safety (1) Police Department Because expenses to this department are projected to increase due to populat growth, they are the same for both alternatives: $53.9 million and 23.3% of 20 y cumulative General Fund costs. Of expenses to this department, salaries and bene for new staff are $42.2 million and 78% of the cumulative total. By year 20 or 2( new Police personnel are projected as shown in the table below. Other significant costs to the Police Department are for what the FISCf-' system calls "Direct Operating Costs.'' These are $9.2 million and 17.1% of the year cumulative total for this department. Of these costs, Communications ( Services are $5.1 million. This category includes data processing, professional outside services, telephone and communications, and equipment maintenance cc for the department as a whole. I I- <,I , I I I 1 31 Tischler & Ass( I I 8 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 Projected Police Personnel Division Position No. Yr. 20 Salaries + Benefits (In Thousands of 1991 Dollars) Operations Field Officers 42 $2,057 Sergeants 7 438 27 Police Service Aide 1 Investigators 8 466 Police Service Aide 1 27 Detectives 2 104 Dispatchers 11 406 Crime Prevention Technician 1 31 DARE Officers 2 98 Records Clerks 5 146 Motorcycle Offcrs. 3 207 Investigators 2 85 Sergeant 1 63 1 Police Service Aide 1 27 TOTAL 87 $4,182 Investigations Vice Technical Services Traffic Other direct operating costs are Maintenance & Operation (M&O) of $3,088 1 year per uniformed officer for uniforms, training, tools, and supplies. Over the year analysis period officers’ M&O totals $2.0 million. Another direct operating c is Vehicle Maintenance which totals $2.0 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. 2011 there are 31 new vehicles, as shown in the table below. 1 It should be noted that, in this analysis, Vehicle Replacement costs for the Po Department were calculated by the FISCALS system and are included in the dire funded capital costs discussed below. Over the 20 year analysis period these u total $2.5 million. Of this total, $0.3 million is for furniture and equipment for Po personnel who work out of offices, and the remaining $2.2 million is for purchase l replacement of the 31 Police vehicles shown below. -I 32 Tischler & Assc 1 I I I I 1 1 I I Projected Police Vehicles in Year 20 Division Position Number Operations Field Officers 7 Sergeants 2 Police Service Aide 1 Investigators 8 Police Service Aide 1 Detectives 2 Crime Prev. Tech. 1 DARE Officers 2 Motorcycle Officers 3 Investigations Vice Technical Services Traffic Investigators 2 Sergeant 1 Police Senice Aide 1 TOTAL 31 I (2) Fire Department I Twenty year cumulative costs to the Fire Department are $33.1 million under 1 Optimistic Scenario and $32.8 million under the Achievable Scenario. In both ca this represents 14% of total General Fund costs. The difference lies in inspection nonresidential buildings by the Fire Inspector’s staff. Because of the Optimi: Scenario’s 1.1 million more square feet of retail space by the year 20, its costs Nonresidential Inspection are $3.4 million, compared to $3.1 million for Achievable Scenario, both on a 20 year cumulative basis. I 1 I 1. -, I I I 1 Of expenses to the Fire Department by year 20, stafling-related costs are $2 million or 80% of the 20 year cumulative total for both alternatives. These cc include salaries, benefits, overtime and M&O for 3 administrative staff, 27 firefight and 9 paramedics projected by the year 2011. The firefighters will staff the r ladder truck and engines for Stations 1 and 5. The paramedics will staff the Mol Intensive Care Unit (MICIJ, or ambulance). 33 Tischler & Assc I 1 I I 1 1 I 1 I I 1 1 I Other operating costs to the Fire Department are $5.3 million under t Besid Optimistic Scenario and $5.0 million under the Achievable Scenario. Nonresidential Inspection, discussed above, these costs include the following. Residential Inspection and population-related Fire Prevention activities are $( million on a 20 year cumulative basis. Vehicle Maintenance and Vehicle Replacement costs total $1.3 million over t analysis period. Capital costs to purchase the ladder truck, two fire engines and o ambulance are $1.2 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. I e. Development Services As discussed in the introduction to this section, many of the functions in t budget categoq exist primarily to serve new development. Therefore their costs h; not been projected to increase in this model. Those costs which are included expected to increase with population and are the same for both alternatives: $ million and 2.7% of 20 year cumulative costs to the General Fund. Of this total, Transportation Engineering is $2.4 million or 38% of 20 y cumulative costs to Development Services. The remaining $3.8 million of cumulal expenses are to the Land Use Division of the Planning Department. This inch salaries and benefits for four new Associate Planners and one Word Processor well as furniture and equipment for those five staff. d. Culture and Recreation (1) Library Department The activities under this department - public libraries and the Cultural 1 program -- are primarily expanding to serve new residents of Carlsbad. There these costs are the same for both alternatives, $35.0 million and 15% of 20 ! cumulative expenses to the General Fund. I. I table below. Of total costs, $18.2 million or 52% are for salaries and benefits for 37 full-I equivalent staff by the year 2011. New positions and staffing costs are shown in -# I I I 34 Tischler 23 Ass( I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I Facility or Program No. of New Staff Yr. 20 Salaries + Benefits (In 1991 Dollars) I South Carlsbad Library 10.0 $328,864 Cole Library 24.5 5 633 72 Media Services 0.5 7,558 Art Gallery Director 1.0 47,880 Guards & Preparator 0.5 11,200 Public Art Coordinator 0.5 34,000 I TOTAL 37.0 $993,074 It should be noted that, when the new South Carlsbad Library opens in 195 most of the staff now at Cole are expected to be transferred there. When Cc reopens after renovation in 1994, the positions transferred to South Carlsbad u need to be replaced, as shown above. The opening of the 64,000 square foot South Carlsbad Library in 1993 u. generate direct operating costs of $619,120 per year. This includes Faciliti Maintenance, Grounds Maintenance, and utility costs to the Library Department. C a 20 year cumulative basis these costs total $11.8 million. The South Carlsbad Liirary will include an Art Gallery with Maintenance Operation costs of $62,5OO annually or $1.2 million cumulative. The Gallery will a1 have new staff as shown above. The Library will include an auditorium and cable 7 studio with part-time staff shown under Media Services above. By the year 2010,20,000 square feet are projected to be added to Cole Librar This expansion will generate Facilities Maintenance and utility costs of $166,600 p' year or $0.3 million on a cumulative basis. 1. -4' r I Other direct operating costs to the Library Department are Community AI Support, $1.0 million cumulative, and Collection Replacement, $2.2 million over tl 1 I 1 35 Tischler & Associ I 1 I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 I 20 year analysis period. The latter is for annual replacement of library book subscriptions and audiovisual materials. Because most of the collection now at Cole will be transferred to South Carlsba in 1992, the Library expects to spend $400,000 to purchase and process materials fc the Cole collection when it reopens after renovation. 1 (2) Parks and Recreation Services and facilities of this department are primarily geared to residents ( Carlsbad. In fact, the FY91 Capital Improvement Program includes projections park acreage and recreational facilities needed to serve residents through buildoi This is possible because buildout population can be estimated fairly accurately und the City’s Growth Management program. Since population increases are identic under both scenarios, costs to the Parks and Recreation Department are likewise 1 same: $58.3 million and 25% of 20 year cumulative expenses to the General Fu Of this total, $40.1 million cumulative or 69% is for Parks Operations. T assumes park maintenance costs of $11,OOO per acre, and includes capital outlay vehicles and equipment, maintenance and replacement, and facilities rnaintenai activities by park staff. By the year 2009, the FY91 CIP projects that the City will maintaining 274 more developed acres of community parks. This includes 100 a( at Veterans’ Memorial; 22 acres at Larwin; 42 acres at Alta Mira; 24.5 acre: Aviara; 35 acres at Alga Norte; and 18.7 acres at Leo Carillo. The remaining acres include Cannon Lake special use area, and three small parks whose sites l- not yet been identified. The IT91 CIP also includes four new community centers whose operations total $7.1 million on a cumulative basis. These costs include Recreation s Maintenance & Operations, and Facilities Maintenance. The Aquatics prograi the Alga Norte pool, projected to open in 2003, will cost $4.8 million cumuli The General Fund share of Recreation Programs (less fees) will be $3.4 million the 20 year analysis period. Finally, Senior Programs are projected to be $2.9 m on a cumulative basis. I -I 36 Tischler & As I I e. Utilities and Maintenance The General Fund portion of Utilities and Maintenance (U&M) activities 1 I almost $33 million and 14% of 20 year cumulative costs. Of this total, over $22 million and 68% is for Street Maintenance. This cost wi calculated based on miles of street added to serve new development. Miles of strec in turn were calculated based on estimates by type of land use provided by the CiQ Engineering Department. Because the Optimistic Scenario has 1.1 million mol square feet of retail space, its Street Maintenance costs are slightly higher than tho: for the Achievable Scenario ($22.6 million versus $22.4 million on a 20 ye; cumulative basis). Under the Optimistic Scenario the City is projected to mainta 167.7 additional miles of road by the year 2011. Under the Achievable Scenai additional miles are 166.7. This may be compared to 219.5 miles maintained as March 1991. It should be noted that these Street Maintenance expenses will partially offset by Gas Tax revenues, projected at $8.5 million under both scenan on a 20 year cumulative basis. I 1 I 1 I I I 1 I I . Also by the year 2011, Utilities and Maintenance is projected to have t additional staff. On a 20 year cumulative basis, their salaries and benefits total $: million. Two staff are needed for Drainage Maintenance, and two staff for Roadsi Maintenance (concrete and sidewalk repairs). Three staff will operate he: equipment used to clean desilting basins. This is a new requirement under the Urk Stormwater Pollutant Control Program. The Department also plans to add Maintenance Management Technician to support all Street Maintenance functio The final two positions will be added with the opening of the New City Hall in 2C These are a Maintenance Electrician, and a Heating Ventilating and Air Condition (WAC) Mechanic. I. -, I The FY91 CIP projects 32 additional traffic signals between 1992 and 2( Maintenance of these signals is $2.7 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. Facilities Maintenance for the U&M Warehouse scheduled to open in 199 $1.2 million cumulative. Vehicle Maintenance and Vehicle Replacement for a Gr I I I 37 Tischler & Assc 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I. -I 1 I I I All (backhoe) and two dump trucks for desilting is $0.7 million cumulative. Tht initial cost to the City to purchase the Grade All and dump trucks is $0.3 million. 38 Tischler & Ass I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 B 1 1 V. Fiscal Results to Capital Funds In addition to the impacts of growth on the General Fund, this analysis include three major Capital Funds: Public Facility (PFF); Park In-Lieu (PC); and Traff Impact (TIF). Each of these funds is discussed in turn below. Note that becaus nonresidential buildout is projected for the year 2040, buildout results are nc discussed for the PFF and TIF funds. The reason for this is that TA does not belie\ that the impact of almost 20 million more square feet of nonresidential land US( have been fully reflected in the City's CIP. This is due to the fact that it is difficu if not impossible to predict the need for road widenings, traffic signals, and othc transportation improvements that far into the future. It is equally difficult, if nc impossible, to predict the availability of Federal, State or County funds or develop contributions for such improvements to the year 2040. On the other hand, resident buildout only exceeds the 20 year analysis period by 2 years. Therefore builda results to the PIL Fund are discussed below. A. Public Facility Fund Since the establishment of the Community Facilities District, Public Facility Fe are set at 1.82% of the building valuation of new construction. These fees are us to fund a range of capital facilities needed to serve growth. This analysis incluc capital projects and costs from the FY91 CIP whose funding source is shown as PE Both costs and revenues to this fund will be discussed in more detail in sectior below, under Cumulative Results. 1. Annual Results Table 9 below shows the annual net revenues or net expenses for the 1 scenarios. When projected fees are compared to capital costs to the Public Facj Fund, both scenarios show net revenues in 14 out of 20 years. Net costs occui years 1, 5, 9, 12, 13 and 18, and are due to the expected staging of the follow major facilities. I -I 39 Tischler & Assc I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I. -1 I 1 I 1 Table 9 Annual Fiscal Results (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) to Public Facility Fund Net Revenues or Emenses Scenario Ootimistic Achievable 1 Year 1 S(5.4) $ (5.4) 2 1.7 1.7 3 0.3 0.3 4 0.7 0.7 1.6 6 1.6 7 2.4 2.4 8 1.9 1.9 1.7 10 1.7 11 2.7 2.7 (2.7) 5 (2.7) (0.9) 9 (0.9) 12 (1.7) (1.7) (2.4) 13 (2.4) 0.8 14 0.8 15 3.0 3.0 16 3.1 3.1 17 1.3 1.3 3.0 19 3.0 20 3.1 3.1 (0.1) 18 (0-1) 1 Source: TA's FISCALS Output, November 1991. 40 Tischler & Assc I 1 The FY91 CIP shows development costs for Larwin and AJta Mira Parks and thc beginning of payments on development of Alga Norte Park in 1992 or year 1. As( in that year are development costs for a tennis center at Alta Mira, and six traffil signals. This makes year 1 capital costs $8.5 million, versus $3.1 million in PFI I I revenues in that year. Mer the first five years (FY91 through FY95), the CIP groups projects a occurring between 1995 and 2000, and between 2000 and 2010 (or buildout). For thl analysis, projects have been assigned to specific years within those ranges based c estimates of demand by the relevant departments and by TA. As time goes on an new capital budgets are adopted, years for specific projects will change depending c where development is occurring and when fees are available. I 1 I I I I I 1 8 I I ,, I I I Projects assigned to year 5 or 1996 in this analysis include a Community Centc at Alta Mira, development costs for Alga Norte, and development of an as-ye unidentified 7 acre park in the northwest quadrant. Also in year 5 are three traff signals and a major street project, widening of the Poinsettia Railroad Bridge. Th makes year 5 capital costs $5.8 million, versus fees of $3.1 million in that year. Projects assigned to year 9 or 2000 include a Community Center in the northwc quadrant, development costs for Alga Norte and Aviara, and two traffic signals. Ye 9 capital costs are thus $4.0 million, compared to fees of $3.1 million in that yea: Projects assigned to year 12 or 2003 include a Comyunity Center and Swimmi Pool at Alga Norte and development costs at Aviara. This makes year 12 capi costs total $4.8 million, versus fees of $3.1 million in that year. Projects assigned to year 13 or 2004 include development costs at Leo Carillo a Aviara Parks and widening of the Railroad Bridge at the intersection of Palorx mort Road and Carlsbad Boulevard. Capital costs total $5.5 million versus fc of $3.1 million in year 13. Finally, in year 18 or 2009, projects include a Community Center at Aviara Pi and a major street project on Carlsbad Boulevard between Tamarack and Pi Capital costs total $3.2 million versus fees of $3.1 million in year 18. I 41 Tischler & Asso I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 2. Cumulative Results Table 10 below shows the cumulative results to the Public Facility Fund far tht two scenarios. This shows that fees exceed costs by $14.3 million under thc Optimistic Scenario and $13.8 million under the Achievable Scenario, cumulative! between 1992 and 2011. Table 10 Cumulative Fiscal Results to Public Facility Fund (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) Scenario ODtimistic Achievable Cumulative Expenses $48.1 $48.1 I Cumulative Revenues 62.4 - 61.9 Net Revenues $14.3 $13.8 The reason for the difference in results is that Public Facility Fees from ne nonresidential development are $0.5 million less on a 20 year cumulative basis undl the Achievable Scenario. This is due to the lesser amount of commercial (reta space under that alternative. Nonresidential fees are $7.6 *on under tl Optimistic Scenario, compared to $7.1 million under the Achievable Scenari cumulatively between 1992 and 2011. It should be noted that, for both Capital Funds which collect revenues c nonresidential development, PFF and TIF, total square feet were reduced by 2(! from KMA's estimates of average annual absorption. This is to account for pub and institutional uses which are exempt from these fees. 1 Residential fees for both alternatives were calculated based on an annual averz of 1,111 units per year, 527 single family and 584 multi-family (including townhouse Residential fees are therefore the same under both scenario, $54.8 million on a year cumulative basis. 42 Tischler & Asso I I I I Because capital costs are taken directly from the N91 CIP, they are also the same for both alternatives, $48.1 million cumulative. These costs are broken down into the following types of projects, as shown in the table below. This shows that costs for park development and recreational facilities are $31.7 million and almost two-thirds of the cumulative total. Major street projects are $11.4 million and almost one-fourth of the cumulativt total. In addition to the projects enumerated above under the discussion of annua results, these costs include medians on Palomar Airport Road and El Camino Real and Tamarack between Jefferson and Carlsbad Boulevard. a 1 I I I I I I I.-, .a' TOTAL $48.1 99.9* 1 I I The remaining PFF projects are Traffic Signals totaling $4 million, and renovatioi of Cole Library and relocation of Fire Station No. 3, costing $0.5 million each. Table 11 Cumulative Costs for PFF Projects (In Millions of 1991 Dollars) I Twe of Project - cost % of Total Parks and Recreation Park Development $19.7 Community Centers 8.0 swimming Pool 3.0 Tennis Center 1.0 Subtotal $31.7 65.9 Street Projects $11.4 23.1 1 Traffic Signals $ 4.0 8.3 Renovation of Cole Library $ 0.5 1.0 Relocation of Fire Stn. #3 $ 0.5 1.0 I *Note: Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. 43 Tischler & Asso 1 I I B. Park In-Lieu Fund If developers of residential subdivisions choose not to dedicate park land to the City, they pay the PIL fee for each new dwelling unit. These funds are accounted foi by quadrant, and are used to buy park land. 1 I In this analysis PIL fees were calcuIated by allocating the City's 25 Local Faciliq Management Zones to quadrants. Dwelling units eligible to pay this fee were take1 from the Citywide Phasing Projections in the 1991 Growth Management Progran Comprehensive Monitoring Report, with adjustments provided by City staff. TA' separate document, "Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions," explains thi calculation in more detail. I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I The result is that projected dwelling units and hence PJL fees are the same unde both scenarios: $8.4 million cumulative for all four quadrants. PIL costs were take from the FY91 CIP and are also the same for both alternatives: $10.6 millio cumulative. Therefore the cumulative impact on the City as a whole is net costs c $2.2 million. It should be noted that, when fees from the 476 additional unii projected for 2012 and 2013 are included, cumulative net costs are $1.9 million. The impact within quadrants is quite different, however. The Southwest shov cumulative net revenues of $0.02 million; the Southeast has net costs of $0.1 millio cumulative; the Northeast net costs of $0.5 million cumulative; and the Northwest nc costs of $1.66 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. Each quadrant is discussed 1 turn below. 1. Northwest Quadrant The FY91 CIP shows two PIL projects in the Northwest between 1992 and 201 The first, in year 4 or 1995, is to acquire 7 acres at a cost of $2.4 million. TI second, assigned to year 9 or 2000, is a park restoration/acquisition project costii $1.4 million. These combined costs of $3.8 million exceed PIL fees from tl quadrant by almost $1.7 million over the 20 year analysis period. I. -I 44 Tischler & Assoc 1 I 1 I I 1 I I I I I 1 I 2. Northeast Quadrant The FY91 CIP shows one park restoratiordacquisition project in the Northeast for $3.5 million. In this model it was assigned to year 18 or 2009. Its cost exceed 20 year cumulative PIL fees of $3.0 million by $0.5 million. I 3. Southwest Quadrant The FY91 CIP shows PIL fees used for two payments on Alta Mira developmen costs: $0.7 million in year 3 and $0.5 million in year 9. Combined costs of $1.2 million are exceeded by cumulative PIL fees of $1.3 million by $0.02 million. 4. Southeast Quadrant The FY91 CIP shows a park restoratiordacquisition project in the Southeast c $1.99 million. It was assigned to year 16, and its cost exceeds PIL fees of $1.9 millio by almost $0.1 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. C. Traffic Impact Fund New residential and nonresidential development pays TIF fees which the Cil uses to fund transportation improvements. There are two TIF districts: Carlsbac or the northern two-thirds of the City; and La Costa, or the southern one-third. In order to calculate TIF fees, the City's 25 zones were assigned to one of tl two districts. The 1991 Growth Management Citywide Phasing Projections were the used to allocate dwelling units to districts. Nonresidential development was allocated as follows. KMA provided TA wi estimates of remaining square feet by zone. These figures were totaled and show( 84.7% of remaining nonresidential space in the Carlsbad District and 15.3% in tl La Costa District. These percentages were applied to KMA's average annu absorption figures, which were further reduced by 20% to account for pubIic ai institutional uses exempt from TIF fees. I -, -, I I Since establishment of the Community Facilities District, TIF fees have be( reduced to 62% of their previous levels. Residential fees are higher for the La Cos District, although nonresidential fees are the same throughout the City. The FY91 CIP shows seven major street projects funded by TIF fees betwe 1992 and 2010. These projects could clearly be assigned by geographic area. Co 45 I I Tischler & Assoc 1 I for four other categories of transportation improvements in the CIP were assignec two-thirds to the Carlsbad District and one-third to La Costa. These are Intersectioi Improvements and the three Miscellaneous categories: Traffic Signal Upgrade5 Guard Rails and Open Ditches, and Traffic Monitoring Program. TA's separat document entitled, "Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions," explains the TU fee and cost calculations in more detail. I 1 Citywide, project costs of $13.9 million exceed TIF fees of $8.5 million by $5. million on a 20 year cumulative basis under the Optimistic Scenario. Under th Achievable Scenario, due to its 40% fewer square feet of retail space, cumulative TI fees are $8.4 million and net costs are $5.5 million between 1992 and 2011. 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I For both alternatives there are net costs to the City under all but the first 4 yea] of the analysis period. The fiscal results to each district are discussed in turn. 1. Carlsbad District As discussed above, residential fees are the same under both scenarios. For tk Carlsbad District they are $3.7 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. Nonresidenti fees are $1.7 million under the Optimistic Scenario and $1.5 million under tl Achievable Scenario, between 1992 and 2011. Because they were entered directly from the FY91 CIP, capital costs are tl same for both alternatives: $9.4 million on a 20 year cumulative basis. Of this tot; Intersection Improvements are almost $5.0 million and 53%; Street Projects are $2 million and 30%; and the three Miscellaneous categories are $1.6 million and 175 Street Projects include the following: Highland Drive, Park Drive, El Camino Rei Elm Avenue, and Carlsbad Boulevard. The cumulative results to the Carlsbad District are net costs of $4.0 million und the Optimistic Scenario and $4.1 million under the Achievable Scenario. I ,* , 2. La Costa District e,, Residential TIF fees to the La Costa District are $2.8 million between 1992 ai 2011. Under the Optimistic Scenario nonresidential fees are $0.3 million; for t Achievable alternative they are $0.28 million. 46 Tischler & Assot 1 I I Transportation improvement costs to the La Costa District are $4.5 million over the 20 year analysis period. Of this total, Intersection Improvements are $2.4 million and 54%; Street Projects are $1.3 million and 29%; and the three Miscellaneou! categories are $0.8 million and 17%. Street projects are Avenida Encinas anc 1 Poinsettia. 1 The cumulative results to the La Costa District are net costs of $1.4 million unde the Optimistic Scenario, and $1.42 million under the Achievable Scenario. I I I I I I I I I 1. -I I 1 1 I 47 Tischler & Assoc 1 1 I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 1. -< I I 1 1 APPENDICES Appendix I-A, General Fund, Optimistic Scenario Appendix I-B, General Fund, Achievable Scenario Appendix 11-4 Public Facility Fund, Optimistic Appendix 11-B, Public Facility Fund, Achievable Appendix 111, Park In-Lieu Fund Appendix IV-A, Traffic Impact Fund, Optimistic Appendix IV-B, Traffic Impact Fund, Achievable I Tischler & A: - c Ik 12 I 1 Im 1; 1; I., I! 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El W .. c .. 2 .. 2 a 28 3=; ZZ ew P8 b-5 +-I > E2u a2 .. u w x Sa2 x -mm $2 E22 c wua e nrn -z mav) cc ornv) e ana VL 2 O0- w 0°- vv L d O0- VL 25 am w cam w -Ima 3 x 2 uw uav n V-IV a a2v ua u W 3 p: z - z ca v) n a a a V Sh 3 cac za a b-o 0 2: I- W CCU P 2-0 0, Eo g 2 eo- s $3 VL 2 L8Y 2 2= =I- w 22 >v)u) 2 z2 222 ElYS;; oc -Imm --lo o aav E 52s 5 2 2 z ocnm - I: R Tischler & Associates, Inc. 21 1 S Manhattan PI Suite 3 Los Angeles. CA 90004 Fax (2 13) 382-4858 4701 Sangamore Road Suite N210 Bethesda, MD 20816 Fax (301) 320-4860 (213) 382-4800 (301) 320-6900 (800) 424-4318 Fiscal Impact Analysis Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee Systems Growth Policy Planning Economic and Market Analysis MUNIES, FISCALS & CRlM Fiscal impact systems tailored for each community 0 0 SERVICE LEVEL, COST & REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS Fiscal Impact Analysis & Model City of Carlsbad November 1991 0 0 z TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. 1 Overall Methodology and Major Assumptions I. GENERAL GOVERNMENT 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 11 19 19 20 22 22 28 38 38 47 47 56 57 57 57 58 58 58 A. City Attorney B. Finance C. Purchasing D. Human Resources E. Information Systems F. Data Processing G. Risk Management H. Miscellaneous Nondepartmental I. Housing and Redevelopment J. New City Hall 11. PUBLIC SAFETY A. Police Department B. Fire Department 111. DEVELOPMENT SERVICES A. Engineering Department B. Planning Department IV. CULTURE AND RECREATION A. Library B. Parks and Recreation v. PUBLIC WORKS A. Utilities and Maintenance VI. REVENUES A. General Fund B. Special Revenue Funds C. Debt Service Funds D. Enterprise Funds E. Water District Funds F. Internal Services Funds G. Other Funds H. Capital Funds Tischler & Associat .1 7 9e 0 0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS The City of Carlsbad has contracted with Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) develop a fiscal model and conduct a fiscal impact analysis of the General Pls Demographic projections and market values have been provided by Keyser Marstc Associates, Inc. (KMA) of San Diego. The projections were developed by KMA conjunction with City planning, growth management, and research staff, and i summarized in separate documents. This document discusses the services and facilities whose costs will be affecl by new development. These service level, cost and revenue assumptions are bas on TA's on-site interviews with department heads and their representatives. Thc assumptions will be combined with the demographic projections to calculate the fis impacts of growth in Carlsbad between FY 1991 and buildout. Calculations will performed using TA's MUNIEWISCALS software. A. In order to provide an understanding of the overall methodology used in fiscal impact analysis, a brief explanation of the MUNIES/FISCALS process follc As indicated on the MUNIES process chart on the following page, there three types of input data. The first category of demomauhic-economic projectj is called Demand Base data inputs. These numerical projections include data s as population, housing units, and commercial space. The MUNIES/FISCALS Process and Data Input Categories The second general type of input data focuses on property tax reven Market values of residential and nonresidential property in Carlsbad, expresse constant 1991 dollars, are multiplied by the City's share of the property tax (0.0 under California law to calculate the amount of this revenue from new developrr The third type of input data relates to the eovernment service levels, costs revenues. The government service level, cost and revenue data used in the f analysis are being determined and agreed upon by TA and City of Carl personnel. This data will be used by TA's MuNIES/FISCALS system to calculat annual costs, revenues and capital facilities by department or function, P appropriate. These assumptions follow in this document. Tischler & As P ROJ ECTl ONS Population SERVICES Housing COSTS AND Employment Other (optional) REVENUES S U BSYST E M BUDQETS Education Recreation Streets Other J U R I S Dl CTI ON AL BUDGETS SUMMARIES County Asseseed Value8 State Bonded Debt Other Tax Rate Requlred Jurl8dlctlonal I m pac t Anal y8 is City L FISCAL IMPACT 1 Other L hr 0 0 The last step in the fiscal process is to use MUNIESLFISCALS to calcula budgets and related fiscal impact statements. 4 B. Major Assumptions This fiscal impact analysis can be regarded as a snapshot of the cum budget. The FY91 (July 1,1990 - June 30,1991) Budget has been used to represf a snapshot of the City’s current costs and revenues and level of setvices. Const 1991 dollars are used through the study. The 1990 Census population of 63,126 used as the base population. The following major assumptions regarding the fiscal methodology shoulc noted. 1. Incremental, Growth-Related Costs and Revenues. For this ana! costs and revenues which are directly attributable to new development are incluc In some cases, the data used are average costs, based on a decision by the local 5 and TA that this is the best information available. Where detailed information available, a marginal or incremental approach was used, such as park acreage 1,000 population. Some costs are not expected to be affected by growth, and fixed in this analysis such as some of the General Government functions. 2. Level of Service. The cost projections are based on the assumption the current level of services, as provided in the FY91 budget, will continue thr the analysis period. 3. Revenue Structure and Tax Rates. Revenues are projected assu that the current revenue structure and tax rates, as defined by the FY91 budge1 not change during the analysis period. 4. Inflation Rate. The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero throw the projection period, and cost and revenue projections are in constant 1991 dc This assumption is in accord with current budget data and avoids the difficu interpreting results expressed in inflated dollars. 5. Economies of Scale. This report does not determine the econorx scale for ongoing operating costs (as opposed to capita1 facility costs). This is ar reason why it is desirable to use current cost ratios. iii Ttschler & F a 0 > 6. Non-fiscal Evaluations. At this point, it should be noted that while fiscal impact analysis is an important consideration in planning decisions, it is only one of several issues which should be considered. Environmental and social issues are two such examples. The above notwithstanding, this analysis will enable interested parties to understand the fiscal implications of the forecast development. Structure of this Document. This document is organized in the same order as the FY91 operating budget. Section I is General Government, including Miscellaneous Non Departmental and Housing and Redevelopment. Section I1 is Public Safety; Section I11 is Development Services; and Section IV is Culture and Recreation. Section V is Public Works (Utilities and Maintenance). The fiscal model is being set up with just the General Fund and three growth-related capital funds (Public Facility Fees, Park In-Lieu Fees, and Traffic Impact Fees). As a result, costs and revenues to enterprise funds (such as Water and Sanitation) are not discussed here. Likewise, neither revenues raised from nor projects financed by the Mello- Roos Community Facilities District are included here, as they have been modeled elsewhere. 7. Section VI is Revenues, which are discussed in the order of the City’s Revenue Estimates, beginning on page 25 of the FY9l budget. Projects in the Capital Improvement Program are discussed in the same sections as their operating costs. For that reason street projects are discussed in Section V.A., Utilities and Maintenance. iv Tischler & Associates, I' Tf 0 0 I. GENERAL GOVERNMENT Several functions under the General Government section of the budget ar expected to be able to serve new development in Carlsbad without significai expansion. These include the following offices: City Council; City Manager; Pub1 Information; City Clerk; Cash Management; Audit; and Research. Expenses shown in three other sections fall into the category of employc benefits: Health Insurance; General Liability; and Workers Compensation. In tf fiscal model employee benefits will increase as a percentage of salaries for tho departments projected to add staff. A. City Attorney The first office under the General Government section of the budget whi is expected to add staff is the City Attorney. This office now has 3 attorneys anc secretaries. The City Attorney expects the office's workload to increase directly w growth. Therefore legal staff will be projected to increase with population as folloi There are now 3 attorneys to serve estimated 1990 populatibn of 63,126, one attorney per 21,042 residents. This is the threshold at which new attorneys F be added. The City Attorney expects that the first two legal staff will be Deputy C Attorneys. Their FY91 Step 1 salary is $49,634. To this will be added the City-wi average for civilian employee benefits, 33%. Each staffer will also require computer, printer, furniture and other equipment costing $6,000, and having a 5 y' life. The third legal staffer will be an Assistant City Attorney. This FY9l Stel salary is $71,890. Regarding support staff, there are now 2 secretaries for 63,126 residents 1 per 31,563. This is the threshold at which new support staff will be added. r first position will be a Secretary I1 with FY91 Step A salary of $23,698. The secc position will be a paralegal. To approximate this position, the FY91 Step A sa of a Management Assistant, $32,370, was assumed. It should be noted that, because the projections developed for the fiscal mc by Keyser Marston Associates, Inc., show the City's buildout population at 121,i or an increase of 57,932 over the 1990 population, for the Assistant City Attorney 1 Tischler & Ass 0 0 t Paralegal positions described above, the population threshold generating them will be 50,000. B. Finance This department is presently undergoing changes. The current Director of Finance is becoming the Director of Financial Management, with additional responsibilities for Purchasing and Risk Management. The Municipal Water District is being merged with the City, and is taking over billing from Finance. After the establishment cf the Community Faciirries District, two positions are expected to be funded out of CFD assessments by FY93: 1 Account Clerk I and 1 Management Analyst. Neither costs nor revenues from the CFD are included here. As discussed above under the City Attorney’s office, new civilian employees will receive 33% of salary in fringe benefits, and $6,000 worth of computer equipment and furniture. The Budget Officer expects the department to add an Accountant in FY94. This position is $30,695 at the FY91 Step A salary level. In FY96 the departm’ent will add a Management Assistant to work on budget and fiscal matters. This FY91 Step 1 salary is $32,370. C. Purchasing This office now has 1 messenger, to deliver documents among different City offices. When operations are centralized in the new City Hall, this staffer will become the Mail Room Supervisor. The Storekeeper, who now does deliveries, will have time freed up by centralization. As other departments add staff, however, this office will need to add Buyers. There are now 2 to serve 63,126 residents, or one per 31,563. This is the threshold at which new Buyers will be added. This FY91 Step A salary is $26,178. To this will be added 33% for benefits and $6,000 for computer equipment and furniture. D. Human Resources Of total staff of 8 in FY91, this office currently has five Human Resources professionals, compared to population of 63,126, or one per 12,625 residents. For this analysis, one Human Resources professional will be projected for each additional 25,250 residents, at an FY91 salary of $29,198. 2 Tischler & Assoc~ c J ,< e Human Resources currently has 2 support staff. When this is compared estimated 1990 population of 63,126, the result is 1 support staff per 31,563 resider (or approximately ET 2002). This is the threshold at which a Clerk-Typist I will added, at an FY91 Step 1 salary of $17,408. Each staffer will also receive 33% of salary in employee benefits, a computer equipment and furniture costing $6,000. E. Information Systems This office is responsible for processing the agenda for the weekly meetil of the City Council. It will add a Clerk-Typist I1 in FY99, at an FY91 Step A sal of $17,936. This office also prepares minutes for all City Boards and Commissi through the use of temporary and part-time staff. A permanent Minutes Cler projected for FY94. This salary is assumed to be the same as a Clerk Typisl which is $17,936 in FY91 at Step A. F. Data Processing This office has 5 positions, of which 1 is a Microcomputer Specialist. If Police Department converts to mobile data terminals and other departments microcomputers in significant numbers, the City will need another Microcomp Specialist at some time in the future. The cost of this position is not included k G. Risk Management This function now has 1 Manager and 1 Secretary. As the City grows, ad population and employees, this office’s workload will also increase. Therefa Management Analyst is projected for FY2002. The FY91 Step 1 salary is $35. H. Miscellaneous Nondepartmental This section of the budget includes Contingencies, Leases, Contributions other miscellaneous items which are not expected to grow significantly over One such expense is expected to increase with population. The Animal Regul Contract is $84,670 in FY91. It is divjded by estimated 1990 population of 6f to equal $1.34. This will be the increase in Animal Regulation costs for each resident of Carlsbad. 3 Tischler & P 0 0 YI I. Housing and Redevelopment In FY91 Housing and Redevelopment activities total $3.1 million. Of this total over 75% is non-General Fund monies, including federal grants. Further, the City’s spending on these activities is not expected to increase due to new development. Therefore Housing and Redevelopment is regarded as fued for purposes of this analysis. J. New City Hall The main project in the CIP attributed to General Government is the New City Hall. This will be financed under the Community Facilities District, and therefore its construction cost is not included here. Assuming that construction begins in 2000 and the New City Hall opens in 2002, there will be additional operating costs associated with the building. New maintenance staff are discussed below under Section V, Utilities and Maintenance. Also, the New City Hall is expected to replace office space currently occupied by City staff, as follows: Facility Square Feet City Hall Complex 13,500 Community Development 22,627 Council Chambers 5500 FinancePurchasing Modular 4,440 Parks & Recreation Admin. 504 Parks & Recreation Modular 1,610 Total Existing 45,181 When 45,181 square feet of existing space are deducted from 96,000 square feet in the New City Hall, the result is 50,819. This is assumed to be the increased space maintained by Facilities Maintenance, at its FY91 cost of $4.47 per square foot. This will result in increased maintenance costs to the City of $227,161 ($4.47 times 50,819 square feet) beginning in 2002. The New City Hall will meet the growth management standard of 1,500 square feet of City Administrative Facilities per 1,OOO population. 4 Tlschler & Associate: r i ,I( 9 0 I. GENERALGOVERNMENT A. City Attorney Activity Allocation Amount 1. Legal Staff a. Deputy City Attorney Pop. thresholds b. Assistant City Attorney Pop. threshold (21,042 & 42,084) $ 49,634 (50,000) $ 71,89C 2. Support Staff a. Secretary I1 Pop. threshold b. Paralegal Pop. threshold (31,563) $ 23,698 (50,Oq $ 32,37( B. Finance 1. CFD Staff See text 2. Accountant 1994 $ 30,69! 3. Management Assistant 1996 $ 32,37( 1. Buyer Pop. threshold C. Purchasing (3 1,563) $ 26,171 1. H.R. Professional Pop. threshold $ 29,191 3. Clerk Typist I Pop. threshold D. Human Resources (25 , 25 0) (31,563) $ 17,40i 1. Clerk Typist I1 1999 $ 17,931 2. Minutes Clerk 1994 $ 17,931 1. Microcomputer Specialist See text E. Information Systems F. Data Processing G. Risk Management 1. Management Analyst 2002 $ 35,88 H. Miscellaneous Nondepartmental 1. Animal Regulation Contract Per capita $ 1.3L I. Housing and Redevelopment See text J. New City Hall 2002 $227,1( NOTE: Employee benefits are calculated by TA's software. They are discusse the text but not included in these tables. Also, each new staffer is assumed to req furniture and computer equipment costing $6,000, and having a 5 year life. 5 Tischler & As e W ’r 11. PUBLIC SAFETY A. Police Department 1. Administration At this time, only one major category under this section of the Police budget is projected to increase with population growth in Carlsbad. This category will be labeled Communications and Services, and includes the following items from the FY91 Expenditure Summary Report: Item FY91 Budgeted Amount Data Processing $ 84,890 Miscellaneous Professional Services 146,300 Miscellaneous Outside Services 189,25 0 Telephone & Communications 85,000 Communications Equipment Maintenance 55,000 Total $560,400 This total is divided by the City’s estimated 1990 population of 63,126, to equal $8.88 per capita. This is the amount Police Communications and Services expenses will be projected to increase with every new resident of Carlsbad. 2. ODerations This division includes almost half of the staff and over half of the sworn officers in the Police Department. The 42 field officers in Operations are assigned to the City’s 7 geographic beats, 6 officers per beat. In the future the Department will add field officers when it adds beats. The decision to add beats is based upon factors which include: - Maintaining a balance between activity time and patrol time. Maintaining adequate response times, especially to Priority 1 - Number of calls for service. - calls for service. In the future the Department may develop staff projections using those factors, such as through a field patrol workload and staffing model. In order to establish the fiscal model at present, the City’s experience during the 1970s will be used as a guide. That is, Carlsbad went from 3 beats in 1972 to 6 beats in 1980. For 6 Tischler & Associate I I< e e the fiscal model, a new beat of 6 officers will be assumed to be added every 3 yea] At that rate, by the year 2012”or residential buildout, the City would have 14 beai or double its current number. Each beat is assumed to be staffed by 6 Police Officers. FY91 salary at Rani 36 Step A is $32,651. Each beat will also be supervised by a Sergeant with FY‘ salary at Range 42 Step A of $41,685. According to the FY91 Expenditure Summa Report, sworn officers’ employee benefits are 50% of salaries. This includ overtime, disability and unemployment insurance, retirement, workers’ compensatic and health and life insurance. In addition, each officer receives a uniform allowance of $450 per year. T Department has $60,000 budgeted for Training and Education in FY91. When tl is allocated among 79 sworn officers, the result is $759 per officer per year. Final excluding Reserves, department-wide costs for Expendable Tools and Spec Departmental Supplies total $148,402 in FY91, or $1,879 per sworn officer per ye Therefore Maintenance & Operation (M&O) expenses will be projected to incres $3,088 for each new sworn officer. This is the combined total for uniforms, trainii tools and supplies, as descriied above. Each Sergeant will receive $6,000 worth furniture and equipment. Field officers in Operations currently have one patrol car for every thi officers. Therefore each six officer beat will have two patrol cars assigned. Sergea are also assigned one car per three sergeants. Therefore a sergeants’ car will added for every three beats. Each patrol car will cost $18,000 and have a two yc life. According to the Expenditure Summary Report, Vehicle Maintenance for 24 cars assigned to Operations is $380,550, or $15,856 per car. The Operations division currently has one of the Department’s three Pol Service Aide (PSA) positions. In the future the Department would like to add PI in Operations, to take cold reports; in Investigations, to work on property evider and in Traffic, for parking enforcement. A decision to change the staffing struct of the Department would represent a different level of service from that shown in 7 Tischler & Assc 0 0 x FY91 budget. Therefore PSAs will be added based on the present staffing structure. In Operations the current ratio is one Aide for 63,126 residents. Because the projections developed for the fiscal model by Keyser Marston Associates, Inc., show the City’s buildout population at 121,058, or an increase of 57,932 over the 1990 population, the PSA will be added when the population increases by over 50,000 residents. FY91 salary for Range 16 Step A is $20,210. To this is added 33% for civilian employee benefits. The PSA will have a sedan costing $10,000 and having a 7 year life. 3. Investigations Although this division would like to supplement detectives with PSA positions, as discussed above, the present ratios will be assumed for this analysis. There are currently 9 detectives to serve 63,126 residents, or one detective per 7,014 people. FY91 Range 38 Step E salary (Senior Police Officer) of $39,697 is assumed. Each sworn officer receives benefits of 50% of salary. M&O expenses are $3,088 per officer per year. Each detective will have furniture and equipment costing $6,000. Each detective will also be assigned a sedan costing $15,000 and having a 7 year life. Investigations now has one PSA to serve 63,126 residents. A new PSA will be added before buildout, or when population increases by over 50,000. FY91 salary is $20,210, plus 33% for benefits. Each PSA will have a sedan costing $lO,OOO and having a 7 year life. According to the Expenditure Summary Report, Vehicle Maintenance for this division is $35,000 per year or $3,182 over 11 cars. Each PSA will have furniture and equipment costing $6,000. 4. Vice/Narco tics This division now has one Sergeant and two detectives to serve 63,126 residents. A new detective (Senior Police Officer) will be assumed for every 31,563 people. FY91 salary is $39,697, plus 50% for benefits including overtime. M&O is $3,088 per officer per year. Each detective will have a sedan costing $15,000 and having a 7 year life. Annual Vehicle Maintenance is $5,833 per car. 8 Tischler & Associat 6 ,I * a 5. Technical SeIvices This division now has 13 Communication Operator II's (dispatchers) to sei 63,126 residents, or one dispatcher per 4,856 people. Actual needs for dispatch( will depend on whether and when the Department changes to Mobile Di Terminals, 800 Mega Hertz, and/or regional dispatch of police and fire service. discussed above, for this analysis, current staffing levels are assumed to contin Dispatchers' FY91 salaries (Range 22 Step A) are $27,029. To this is added 33% benefits. The City currently has one Crime Prevention Technician to serve 63,' residents. Although the Department would like to increase the number of s' working on neighborhood watch programs, the current ratio will be assumed. order to show a technician before buildout, this staffer will be shown when popula increases by over 50,000.) FY91 salary for Range 31 Step A or $23,464 will assumed for this position. To this will be added 33% for benefits. Each Technic will have a sedan costing $10,OOO and having a 7 year life. Vehicle Maintenance Technical Services is $2,140 per car per year. The City now has 2 DARE officers to provide drug abuse prevention sen to 9 schools. A new DARE officer will be assumed for each 4 new schools. As Carlsbad Unified School District projects 7 new schools by buildout, one officer be projected for 2000 and one for 2009. Officers will have FY91 salary of $32 plus 50% in benefits including overtime. Each officer will have a sedan co: $15,000, having a 7 year life, and costing $2,140 per year for M&O. Technical Services now has 6 Records Clerks, or one per 10,521 resident! should be noted that, if Optical Disk Storage is implemented, fewer clerks wou' needed.) FY91 salary for Range 20 Step A of $21,031 is assumed. Each Rec Clerk will receive benefits of 33% of salary. Each clerk and technician will also furniture and equipment costing $6,000. New positions which the Department would like to add include Manage Analysts to coordinate crime reporting with Geographic Information Systems, i full-time Recruiter. The Department also anticipates transferring a Captain PO 9 Tischler & A a @ 2, from Tech Services to Investigations, with a civilian manager added to Tech Services. These changes are not included here. 6. Reserve Officers This division of the budget covers volunteers who train for officer certification on their own time. Expenses for this division are not expected to increase due to new development in the City. Therefore it is regarded as fmed for purposes of this analysis. 7. Traffic This division has 4 motorcycle officers, or one per 15,782 residents. Senior Police Officers’ salary of $39,697 is assumed. There are 2 traffic investigators, or one per 31,563 residents. Police Officers’ salary of $32,651 is assumed. Both motorcycle officers and traffic investigators will be added to serve new residents. Traffic now has one Sergeant to supervise the above 6 officers. By 2005 a second Sergeant will be added, at FY91 salary of $41,685, to supervise the 6 additional officers that will be added by buildout. Each sworn officer will receive 50% of salary in benefits, including overtime. Each officer will also generate $3,088 per year in M&O, for uniforms, training and tools. (The Department expects to add a Lieutenant to supervise the division in FY93. This cost is not included here.) A motorcycle will cost $8,500 and have a 4 year life. A traffic investigator’s and Sergeant’s car ,~li cost %‘!,OOO and have a 2 year life. In the future the Department plans tc. add a va costing $20,000 and having a 5 year life, to use in accident investigations. (The van is not included here.) The Sergeant will receive furniture and equipment costing $6,000. According to the Expenditure Summary Report, Vehicle Maintenance for this division is $2,371 per car. As discussed above, the Department intends to add PSA positions in the future. At present there is one PSA in Traffic to serve 63,126 residents. In order to generate another PSA before buildout, a population threshold of 50,000 will be assumed. FY91 salary of $20,210 plus 33% for benefits is assumed. Each PSA will have a sedan costing $lO,OOO and having a 7 year life. 10 Tlschler & Associati # ,= e e B. Fire Department 1. Cauital Facilities The City’s 6 fire stations are expected to meet the growth managemei standard of no more than 1,500 dwelling units outside a 5 minute response time, fro now until buildout. However, the CIP does show $451,000 for the relocation ( Station 3 in FY94. Other capital equipment is discussed below under Fi Suppression and Emergency Medical Services. 2. Operating Costs a. Administration This division of the Fire Department is currently staffed by the Chief, Battalion Chief, and a Secretary 11. The only other secretarial position to support professional staff is assigned to Fire Prevention. Therefore the Department expe to add a Secretary I position in FY92. In FY91 the salary for Grade 27 Step 1 $22,548. To this will n be added 33%, which is the City-wide average percentage salary for fringe benefits for civilian employees. When the City’s population reaches 9O,OOO, or approximately 2001, 1 Department will add a Management Analyst to work on budget and finance. FY91 the Step 1 salary for this position is $35,880, plus benefits. Both * Management Analyst and the Secretary will receive furniture and equipment cos1 $6,000. b. Fire Suppression Staff under this division will increase with major new fire apparatus. In F the Department expects to purchase a ladder truck costing $6OO,OOO taxed equipped in today’s dollars. The ladder truck will have a 20 year life, and contain special equipment to extricate accident victims from vehicles, etc.. The C acquisition of a ladder truck was first recommended by the IS0 in 1976. The ladder truck will be staffed by 3 firefighters for each of 3 shifts. This 1 of 9 firefighters per apparatus is a minimum level of staffing. Each shift will composed of 1 Captain ($47,190), 1 Engineer ($40,794), and 1 Firefighter ($36,! In addition to these FY91 Step E salaries, each of the 9 staff will receive 43‘ 11 Tlschler & As! * * ’8 benefits. This includes retirement, disability and unemployment insurance, workers compensation, and health and life insurance. The overtime cost per additional person for vacation and sick leave replacement is $5,000 per year. Maintenance & Operation (M&O) costs for each new person is $2,400 based on actual costs for uniforms, protective clothing, training, certification and consumable station expenses. Total staff-related costs per fire engine and ladder truck will thus be $602,772 per year. This is summarized in the table below. Position FY91 Benefits Overtime M&O Total per Salary @ 43% Position 1 Captain $47,190 $20,292 $5 30 $2,400 $ 74,882 1 Engineer $40,794 $17,541 $5,000 $2,400 $ 65,735 1 Firefighter $36,998 $15,909 $5,000 $2,400 $ 60,307 Total per Shift $200,924 times 3 Shifts = Total for Truck $602,772 When the City’s populaiion reaches 11O,OOO, or around the year 2008, the Department will add a fire engine at Station 1. The engine will cost $250,000 fully equipped, and have a useful life of 15 years. By residential buildout or the year 2012, the Department will also add a fire engine to Station 5. Each new fire engine will be staffed by 9 firefighters, for total staff-related operating costs of $02,772 per year, as described above. Each new truck is estimated to cost $8,000 per year for Vehicle Maintenance. Vehicle Replacement costs will be calculated by dividing the purchase price by the useful life. Thus, for the ladder truck, Vehicle Replacement is $30,000 per year. For fire engines it is $16,667 per year. 12 Tischler & Associates i’ 8% a a C. Fire Prevention The Fire Marshal estimates that 90% of this division’s activity is associatt with plan check and inspection of commercial buildings. Because sprinkler permi will be projected to increase with other licenses and permits under General FUI revenues in Section VI below, they are not deducted from the City’s costs for Fi Prevention here. Therefore 90% of this division’s total FY91 budget of $366,598, $329,938, is divided by the number of nonresidential square feet in the City. TI number, 13,795,299, has been estimated by Keyser Marston Associates, Inc., as February 1991. The result, $0.024, will be the increased cost for inspection and co enforcement for each new nonresidential square foot in the City. The Fire Marshal estimates review and inspection of new residen‘ construction as requiring 2% of staff time. Therefore 2% of Fire Prevention’s Fk budget, or $7,332, is divided by the 540 dwelling units built in 1990. The res $13.58, will be the cost generated by each new housing unit in the City. The remaining 8% of Fire Prevention activity is driven by population. T is, the Fire Marshal and his staff respond to citizen complaints and inquiries, i conduct programs of public education. When 8% is multiplied times the Fl budget for Fire Prevention, the result is $29,328. This is divided by the Cen estimate of Carlsbad’s 1990 population, 63,126. The result, $0.46, will be increased cost for Fire Prevention for each new resident of the City. d. Emergencv Medical Services In 1990 approximately 72% of the Fire Department’s calls for service N medical emergencies. Due to this fact, in the future most Firefighters will be traj as Paramedics. Therefore some of the Firefighters associated with the new appar discussed under Suppression above will also be Paramedics. The City currently operates two Advanced Life Support paramedic ambul es with one support unit. The current staffing level is 9 paramedics per unit. ’ level provides 2 paramedics per unit for each of 3 shifts. The third param position is on the fire engine as part of its minimum manning. This a1 paramedics to rotate between functions for cross-training. 13 Tischler & As A, m b The Department expects to purchase an additional Mobile Intensive Care Unit (MICU) for $70,000 in FY95. The unit will have a 4 year life. It will contain medical equipment costing $15,000 and having a 5 year life. As discussed above, it will be staffed by 9 Paramedics. Their FY91 salary for Range 41 Step E is $42,848. To this will be added 43% for benefits. Each new Paramedic has an overtime replacement cost for sick leave and vacations of $5,000 annually. Maintenance & Operation (M&O) costs for each new medic is $3,200 for uniforms, protective clothing, training, certification and consumable station supplies. Total staff-related costs per paramedic unit will be $625,257 per year. This is the total for 9 paramedics with salary of $42,848, benefits of $18,425, overtime of $5,000, and M&O of $3,200 per year. The MICU is projected to cost $12,000 per year for Vehicle Maintenance and Insurance. Vehicle Replacement is estimated at $17,500 per year (purchase price of $70,000 divided by useful life of 4 years). In FY95 the Department expects to add a civilian EMS Coordinator and Educator. Such a staffer will conduct 50% to 60% of needed emergency medical training in-house. The EMS Coordinator will also perform quality control on service provision by reviewing the medical records kept by the Paramedics. The State Department of Health is requiring such review of all EMS providers, as part of risk managemer: - af medical malpractice insurance. Total compensation for the EMS Coordinator will be approximately $55,000. This includes benefits of 33% and assumes salary of Range 47, Step A, or $40,794 in FY91. e. Weed Abatement As Carlsbad builds out, the amount of unimproved land on which the City performs this service will decrease. Further, most of the cost for this service is recovered through charges to property owners. Therefore it is regarded as fixed for purposes of this analysis. 14 Tischler 23 Associate: t‘ i’ a e f. Disaster Preparedness This function is staffed by one person. That level of operation is believed be adequate through buildout. Therefore this function is regarded as fxed f purposes of this analysis. ’ 15 Tischler & As m e > 11. PUBLIC SAFETY A. PoIice Department 1. Administration Activity Allocation Amount a. Communications and Services Per capita $ 8.88 2. Operations a. Police Officers 6 per beat; $ 32,651 b. Sergeants 1 per beat $41,685 c. M&O Per P.O. & Sgt. $ 3,088 d. Patrol Car Per 3 P.0.s & per 3 Sgts. $ 18,000 e. Vehicle M&O Per car per year $ 15,856 f. Police Service Aide Pop. threshold g. PSA’s Sedan a. Detective Pop. threshold (7,014) $ 39,697 b. M&O Per detective $ 3,088 c. Sedan Per detective $ 15,000 d. PSA Pop. threshold new beat ea. 3 yrs. (50,000) $ 20,210 Per PSA $ l0,Ooo (PSA) 3. Investigations (50,000) $ 20,210 e. PSA’s Sedan Per PSA $ 10,Ooo f. Sedan’s M&O Per sedan $ 3,182 a. Detective Pop. threshold (31,563) $ 39,697 b. M&O Per detective $ 3,088 c. Sedan Per detective $ 15,000 d. Vehicle M&O Per sedan $ 5,833 a. Dispatcher POP. threshold b. Crime Prevention Pop. threshold 4. Vice/Narcotics 5. Technical Services (4,856) $ 27,029 Technician (50,000) $23,464 d. Vehicle M&O Per sedan $ 2,140 e. DAREOfficers 2000 & 2009 $ 32,1551 f. DARE Officers’ Sedans Per officer $ 15,000 g. Records Clerk Pop. threshold (10,521) $ 21,031 c. Technician’s Sedan Per technician $ 10,Ooo 16 Tischler & Associatt . 0 e ,I 11. PUBLIC SAFETY (Continued) A. Police Department (Continued) Activity Allocation Amount 6. Reserve Officers Fixed 7. Traffic a. Motorcycle Officer Pop. threshold (15,782) $ 39,697 b. Traffic Investigator Pop. threshold (31,563) $ 32,651 c. Sergeant 2005 $ 41,685 e. Motorcycle Per mtrcycle officer $ 8,500 f. Sedan Per investigator & per sergeant $ 18,000 g. Vehicle M&O Per motorcycle & per sedan $ 2,371 h. PSA Pop. threshold d, M&O Per officer $ 3,088 (50,000) $ 20,210 i. PSA'sSedan Per PSA $ 10,m NOTE. Employee benefits are calculated by TA's software. They are discussec the text but not included in these tables. Also, detectives, sergeants, records cle crime prevention technicians and police service aides are assumed to recc furniture and equipment costing $6,000 and having a 5 year life. 17 Tischler ti A: >I m 0 11. PUBLIC SAFETY (Continued) B. Fire Department Activity Allocation Amount 1. Capitai 'acilities a. Relocation of Station 3 1994 $45 1,000 2. Operating Costs a. Administration (1) Secretary I 1992 $ 22,548 (2) Mgmt. Analyst 2001 $ 35,880 (3) Furn. & Equipment Per new staffer $ 6,000 (1) Ladder Truck 1994 $600,000 (2) Fire Engine, Stn. 1 2008 $250,000 (: Fire Engine, Stn. 5 2011 $250,000 (-+ Frfghtrs,OT/M&O Per truck $602,772 (5) Vehicle M&O Per truck $ 8,000 (6) Vehicle Replacement (a) Ladder Truck Per year $ 30,000 (b) Fire Engine Per year $ 16,667 b. Fire Suppression c. Fire Prevention $ 0.024 (1) Nonresidential Inspection Per square foot ' (2) Residential Inspection Per new unit $ 13.58 (3) Population Driven Per capita $ 0.46 (I) Mobile Intensive Care Unit 1995 $ 70,000 (2) Prmdcs,OT/M&O Per unit $625,257 (4) Vehicle Replacmt. Per unit $ 17,500 (5) EMS Coordinator FY95 $ 40,794 d. Emerg. Med. Services (3) Vehicle M&O Per unit $l&OOo e. Weed Abatement See text f. Disaster Preparedness See text NOTE: Civilian employee benefits will be calculated by TA's software. They are discussed in the text but not included in these tables. 18 Tischler & Assocla 0 0 ,c o III. DEVELOPMENT SERVICES This section of the budget includes several divisions whose primary functic are to serve new development. Due to that fact, staffing levels for the follow divisions are assumed to be adequate, and operating costs are therefore not expect to increase due to growth: Community Development Administration; Engineer; Department Administration, Development and Municipal Projects; Plann Commission; Geographic Information System; Growth Management; and Build Inspection. It should be noted that this assumption regarding staffing levels 1 developed using the FY91 budget. Staffing levels have changed in FY92. Some of the capital facilities for which the Engineering Department provii design, inspection and review services are discussed, along with their associa operating costs, under Section V, Utilities and Maintenance. Capital and opera costs which are included in the model are those to the following funds: Gene Public Facility; Park In Lieu; and Traffic Impact. Enterprise funds, including W and Sewer, are not being modeled as their revenues are set to cover costs. Reven associated with services provided by Engineering, Planning and Building Inspeci are discussed in Section VI of this document, Revenues. Those divisions whose operating costs are projected to increase are disw in the order in which they appear in the FY91 budget. k Engineering Department 1. Transportation Division This division is responsible for traffic safety and transportation planr Unlike the Development and Municipal Projects Divisions which are parl supported by fees, developer contriiutions, or Capital Funds, Transportatic entirely supported by the General Fund. In addition, a fair amount of staff tin this division is spent dealing with citizens. Therefore Transportation Enginet costs will be projected to increase with population. FY91 expenses of $257,40: divided by 1990 Census population of 63,126. The result, $4.08, will be the incre cost for Transportation Engineering for each new resident of Carlsbad. 19 Tischler & As 1, e 0 B. Planning Department 1. Land Use Division The Director of Planning expects the remaining undeveloped zones to submit their Local Facilities Management Plans within the next 10 years. Resulting development activity within these zones, as well as increased activity in the zones where LFMPs are already approved, will require the addition of 4 Associate Planners and 1 Word Processor 11. This will permit the Land Use Planning Division to maintain its current level of service. FY91 Step A salaries for Grade 78 (Associate Planner), $37,454, and Grade 13 (Word Processing Operator II), $19,616, will be used. The City-wide average for employee benefits, 33% of salary, will be added to each position. One Associate Planner will be assumed for each of FY93, FY95, FY97 and FY99, or for every 5,226 residents (up to 20,904 residents). The Word Processor will be added in FY96. Each new staffer will receive furniture and computer equipment costing $6,000. An additional concern is office space for any new staff. The Planning Department offices are presently filled to capacity. Additional office space will be needed for any new staff. 20 Tischler & Assoctatt . 0 0 ig III. DEVELOPMENT SERVICES A. Engineering Department B. Planning Department Activity Allocation AmOUl 1. Transportation Division Per capita $ 4.08 1. Land Use Division a. Associate Planners 1993, 95, 97 & 99 37,454 b. Word Processor I1 1996 19,616 NOTE: Employee benefits are calculated by TA's software. They are discussec the text but not included in these tables. Also, each new staffer is assumed to reqi furniture and computer equipment costing $6,000, and having a 5 year life. 21 TIschier & Ass 0 0 N. CULTURE AND RECREATION A. Library 1. Capital Facilities Major changes in library service will occur with new facilities. The 64,000 square foot library in South Carlsbad is due to open in 1993. It will be financed out of the Community Facilities District. To establish the initial collection at South Carlsbad, 166,000 volumes now at Carlsbad Village Drive or the Cole Library, will be transferred there. When the South Carlsbad Library opens, the original library will be closed for renovations shown at $500,000 in the FY91 CP, to reopen in 1994. The original plans were to expand the Cole Library to 32,000 square feet. For this analysis the assumption is that Cole will remain at 24,600 square feet from now until close to residential buildout. At that time Cole will be expanded to 44,600 square feet. This will meet the standard in the Growth Management Plan of 800 square feet per 1,000 population. This 20,000 square foot expansion will also be financed out of the Community Facilities District. Expansion is expected in the year 2010, or shortly before residential buildout of the City. When Cole reopens in 1994, the collection now at the La Costa Branch (approximately 35,000 volumes) will be transferred there. An additional $400,000 for purchase and processing of around 15,000 volumes will be spent in FY92, to supplement the collection at Cole. 2. ODerating Costs For the most part, changes to operating costs are discussed below by facility, rather than by divisions of the budget. That is, when library space increases from 24,600 square feet to 88,600 square feet in 1993, staff will increase. Costs for these staff are currently shown under the following cost centers: Administration; Circulation; Reference; Genealogy; Children’s Services; Technical Services; Adult Learning; Media Services; Collection Development; and La Costa Branch (now operated out of leased space in South Carlsbad). Likewise, building operating costs 22 Tischler & Associate c e a ,d and collection replacement costs will increase with new facilities and with populatioi Both these categories of costs also cut across functional areas of the budget. ' a. New Librarv Staff In order to calculate the City's cost for net new library staff, the followir assumptions are made. When the South Carlsbad Library opens in 1993, most of tl staff now at Cole and at the La Costa Branch will be transferred to the new facilil While Cole is closed for renovations, the City will lease space in North Carlsbad f selected general staff and will maintain the La Costa Branch for Genealo operations. At the South Carlsbad Library there will be 10 new positions. One, Brar Manager or Principal Librarian, will be a new classification. This salary is assurr to be between that of Assistant Library Director and Librarian 111, or comparable Step 3 for a Senior Management Analyst, $45,656 in FY91. There will be a new function called Information Services at South Carlsb This will be staffed by 1 Librarian I1 at Range 53 Step C, or $32,199 in FY Information Services will also have 4 Library Assistants. Two are assumed to be ' I's at Range 24 Step C, or $24,128 in Ey91. The other 2 will be LA II's at Ra 35 Step C, or $26,919 in FY91. The Reference section at South Carlsbad will add a business specialis1 Librarian 11, $32,199, and a Liirarian I, Range 38 Step C, or $27,735 in FV91. Finally, the Circulation section will add 2 pages who will each work 19 hc a week. Assuming Range 1 Step C or $4.97 per hour, each page will be paid $4. per year with no benefits. Therefore, the City's cost for new positions at South Carlsbad will be $328 per year. This is summarized in the table below. 23 Tischler & As: k, 0 e New Position FY91 Salary Benefits No. of Total for @ 33% Positions Positions Principal Librarian $45,656 $15,066 1 $ 60,722 Librarian I1 32,199 10,626 2 85,650 Librarian I 27,735 9,153 1 36,888 Library Assistant I1 26,919 8,883 2 71,604 Library Assistant I 24,128 7,962 2 64,180 Library Page 4,910 0 2 9,820 TOTAL FOR NEW STAFF - South Carlsbad 10 $328,864 When Cole Library reopens in 1994, the 1.5 staff in Genealogy and 3.6 staff in Adult Learning will be transferred back in from leased space. The remainder of the staff at Cole are assumed to be net new positions, as shown in the table below. Full-time salaries assume the middle of the range for the position in FY91. Clerks and Pages work 19 hours a week with no benefits. Clerk I is Range 12 Step A and Clerk I1 is Range 12 Step E. New Position FY91 Salary Benefits No. of Total for @ 33% Positions Positions Principal Librarian $45,656 $15,066 1 $ 60,722 Librn. I11 (Chldm) 37,382 12,336 1 49,718 Librarian I1 32,199 10,626 1 42,825 Lib. Asst. I11 (Circ.) 30,637 10,110 1 40,747 Lib. Ass: I1 26,919 8,883 4 143,2:" 3 Library A%istant I 24,128 7,962 3.5 112,560 Library Clerk I1 8,349 0 3.5 29,222 Library Clerk I 6,857 0 3 20,571 Library Page 4,910 0 5 24,550 TOTAL FOR NEW STAFF - Cole Library 24.5 $563,572 Clerk Typist I1 19,774 6,525 1.5 39,445, b. Part-Time Staff, Media Services The Media Services division now includes one full-time and one part-time staff member. When the South Carlsbad library opens in 1993, this division will manage its auditori: I" and operate a Cable c' -?reduction studio. To staff these two additional I-. , ;tions, the library will ad. t part-time clerk. -?'he FY91 salary for part-time Range 12 Step C, $7,558, will be used for this additional position. 24 Tischler & Associate 0 0 1, ,f C. Facilitv Operating Costs The FY91 budget for utilities at Cole Library is $95,000. When this is dividr by 24,600 square feet in the building, the result is $3.86 per square foot. To this added Facilities Maintenance costs of $4.47 per square foot (under Utilities a1 Maintenance in the budget), for a :otal building operating cost of $8.33 per squa foot. This is multiplied times the 64,000 square feet in the South Carlsbad library f increased costs of $533,120 per year beginning in 1993. This is the estimated cc based on maintenance of existing buildings. The six acre site will cost $66,000 per year for landscape maintenance. T cost is in the Parks & Recreation budget. When 20,000 square feet are added to Cole Library in 2010, the increased c to the City will be $166,600 for utilities and building maintenance (20,000 tin $8.33). d. Collection Replacement Costs The FY91 budget for books, subscriptions and audiovisual materials $237,000. This cost will be projected to increase on a per capita basis. Therefi $237,000 is divided by the 1990 Census population of 63,126. The result, $3.75, be the annual collection replacement cost for each new resident of Carlsbad. e. Cultural Arts When the South Carlsbad Library opens in FY93, its Art Gallery will staffed by a full-time Gallery Director. This new position is expected to have time salary of $36,000, plus the Citywide average for employee benefits at 339 salary. The gallery will also require part-time guards at $5,000 per year, and a F time exhibit preparator at $6,200 per year. Initial equipment for the gallel estimated at $6,300. Annual Maintenance & Operation for the gallery wil $75,000. Of this total, $12,500 is for printing and postage and will be dim below. The remaining $62,500 in M&O will be incurred each year for ga operation. Within the existing Cultural Arts budget and the proposed gallery budge1 following items are expected to increase with population: 25 Tischler 8 As: *' 0 0 Object Amount in FY91 Budget Community Arts Support $ 72,630 Postage-Cultural Arts 6,000 Printing-Cultural Arts 14,000 Printing-Gallery 7,500 Postage-Gallery 5,000 Total $105,130 This total is divided by the 1990 Census population estimate, 63,126, to equal $1.67 per capita. This will be the City's cost for arts support, including printing and postage for calendars and newsletters for each new resident of Carlsbad. The Arts Manager now has a part-time employee coordinating the Public Art program. Assuming the City's continued commitment to this program, the Manager would make this position a full-time Management Analyst. This FY91 Step 1 salary is $35,880. With benefits this position will be $47,720. From this is deducted the present part-time salary, $14,000, for a net cost of $33,720. The full-time position is assumed to begin in FY95. f. Sister CiN FY91 is the first full year of this program, with Carlsbad's "sister city" of Futtsu, Japan. The City Council recently added Karlovy Vary (formerly Karlsbad), Czechoslovakia, as the second sister city. This program is now coordinated by the Management Analyst assigned to Cultural Arts. This staffer's primary duty is Community Arts Coordination. However, the Sister City program is requiring up to 50% of available time. The Arts Manager believes that in the future, dedicated staff will need to be added to maintain the Sister City program. This is not included in the model. g. Audiovisual Insurance This section of the library budget is operated as a special fund. That is, when patrons check out a video, they pay a $0.50 insurance fee. This fee is used to purchase new videos and equipment. In FY91 revenues more than cover costs, although the level of net revenues appears to have stabilized. When the South 26 Tischler & Associa 0 0 t I- Carlsbad library opens, net revenues may begin to increase, but this is difficult predict. Therefore this activity will be regarded as fxed for purposes of this analy h. CLSA Grant This section of the budget represents the California State Library’s reimbui ment of the City for loans of materials to non-residents. While the City’s lending 7 probably increase, the level of State funding is uncertain. Therefore this activit fixed in the fiscal analysis. - 1. PLF Grant This section of the budget contains the State Public Library Fund gr Although it is based on population, due to State budgetary constraints, this gi decreased from $49,782 in FY90 to $39,825 in FY91. Therefore it is fixed in fiscal analysis. (Note that the budget shows a fund balance which includes sev years of savings and carryover, and thus is higher than the annual amount of grant.) 27 Tischler & A$ -* 0 B. Parks and Recreation 1. Capital Facilities Recreational facilities will be discussed first, followed by park facilities. Operating costs are addressed in Section 2 below. a. Communitv Centers The City now has one community center in the northwest (Harding), one in the northeast (Calavera), and one in the southeast quadrant (Stagecoach). This does not include other City-wide facilities such as the Senior Center, Magee House, or Heritage Hall, all of which are in the northwest quadrant. The three cornmmity centers total E -3nd 43,000 square feet, with the Senior Center contain,;>: an additional 16,000 square feet. Three of the four community centers in the FY91 CIP were shown as 15,000 square feet and costing $2.25 million. In order to allocate $4.5 million from the FY91 CIP to both a pool and community center at Alga Norte, the center is assumed to be 10,000 square feet and to cost $1,500,000. These community centers will be sufficient to maintain the current level of service at buildout. Based on the CIP, the existing location of recreational buildings, and projected population increases; the community centers will be staged as follows: Quadrant & Center Fiscal Year SW - Alta Mira 1996 Nw 2000 SE - Alga Norte 2003 SW - Aviara 2009 (It should be noted that the EY91 CIP shows community centers at 20,000 square feet.) b. Swimmine: Pool The City currently has one swimming pool. A second pool is planned at the Alga Norte Park. It is assumed to cost $3,000,000, and to be constructed in the same year as the community center, 2003. 28 Tischler & Associate e 0 LT c. Golf Course The City is considering development of an 18-hole golf course in the northe quadrant. Debt service is estimated at $800,000 a year for 20 years from date construction. Because the site surrounds Lake Calavera, the City must rece development permission from the Army Corps of Engineers and the State Fish s Game Department. The latter permit require completion of an EnvironmeI Impact Review which is now underway. Other complications include location adequate supplies of water from either wells or reclamation sources. Finally, priv development has not yet provided road access to the site. Due to these compl tions the golf course and clubhouse may cost $14 million to $17 million to devel The City has had a feasibility study performed regarding future operating costs. F are expected to be set at such a level as to cover costs of operating the golf cou The General Fund share of debt service (up to 2% of Transient Occupancy ' collections) is a commitment the City has made to serve existing residents, and is attributed to new development. d. Communitv Parks and Special Use Areas The Growth Management standard for parks is that 3 acres of community F or special use area per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction wi a 5 year period. The Capital Improvement Program contains projects which incl the acreage needed until buildout. Projects will be discussed below by th quadrants of the City, which correspond to park planning districts. (1) Northwest Quadrant This district currently has 39.58 acres of community park and 42.5 acres of spe use areas. The CIP shows acquisition of a 7 acre park in FY95 for $2,380,000, development in FY96 for $875,000. The Cannon Lake special use area, 6.7 a( will be developed for $84O,OOO between 1995 and 2000, say in FY97. A PIL 1 costing $1,387,767 is shown in 2000. The CIP also shows a project entitled Macario. Originally known as Mac Canyon Park, this is now renamed Veterans Memorial Park. Because the FY91 refers to Macario, this document will also. This 288 acre parcel is centrally loc 29 Tischler & Ass ., m :r~ Carlsbad. Therefore portions of Macario are credited to each of the 4 quadrants, as follows. A total of 100 acres will be developed, 25 acres in each quadrant, with the remaining 188 acres credited as open space, 47 acres to each quadrant. Staging of development of Macario will depend on the rate of population growth in the City. Using Keyser Marston Associates’ projected population increases, and considering the acreage provided by other community park and special use projects in the CIP, the acreage provided by Macario would be needed as follows: Quadrant Fiscal Year Vortheast 2003 Jorthwest 2003 xtheast 2006 mthwest 2006 After approval of the Community Facilities District, staging of Macario was revised in the FY92 CIP. (2) Northeast Quadrant This district now has 43.16 acres of community parks and special use areas. This includes 22.2 acres in Laxwin Park, to be developed for $2.5 million in FY92. The CIP also shows a PIL park costing $3,525,430 and projected for the year 2009. (3) Southwest Quadrant This area currently has no acres of developed community park. The FY91 CIP showed 42 acres in Alta Mira being developed in two phases. The first phase of 32 acres was to begin development in FY91 for $1.3 million. Another $3.8 million was shown in the CIP for development in FY92. Also in FY92 construction of a Tennis Center was projected for $1 million. The second phase, or development of the remaining 10 acres, was scheduled for FY94, to cost $1.2 million. (The FY92 CIP shows development of Alta Mira in one phase.) The FY91 CIP also showed 15 acres at Aviara, called Zone 19 Community Park. Development costing $1.7 million was scheduled for FY94. An additional 9.25 acres at Aviara, for a total of 24.5 acres, was scheduled for development in 2001, for $1.1 million. The developer will be repaid by the City in FY95 through FY2000. These costs will be incurred by the Public Facility Fund. 30 Tischler & Associa * 0 \. Finally, the CIP shows a special use area of 4 acres costing $500,000 to deve in 2004. This project will not be included in the model, as an elementary school 1 already been developed (Aviara Oaks). The City expects to enter into a Joint I Agreement for this site and doesn't anticipate another special use area in 1 quadrant. (4) Southeast Quadrant This district currently has 53.34 acres of developed community parks and spe use areas. In addition, Alga Norte Park was scheduled to be developed in * phases. The first phase, 19.48 acres, was to cost $2.2 million to develop in Fk The second phase, 15.52 acres, was to be developed for $0.4 million, $0.8 million, ; $0.8 million in each of FY92, FY93 and FY2000. (The N92 CIP shows developm of Alga Norte delayed until after 1996.) The developer will be repaid by the Cit FY94 through 2000. These costs will be incurred by the Public Facility Fund. This district will also add Leo Carillo Park to its inventory, as follows. ' existing 10.2 acres will be developed in FY94 and FY95 for $2.25 million. additional 8.5 acres will be dedicated and developed for $1.1 million in 2004. ' developer has proposed another 10 acres at the Can110 Park, but related costs not yet available. Finally, the CIP shows a PIL Park for $1,992,840, estimated for the year 2a (5) Zone 5 Industrial Park The City is divided into 25 zones for growth management and planning purpc Zone 5 is in the center of Carlsbad and is divided by El Camino Real and Palo Airport Road. Its development is expected to be entirely nonresidential. recognition of that fact, the City has instituted an industrial park fee of $0.40 square foot of nonresidential development. This fee will be used to acquire land develop a park with tennis courts, ballfields, basketball courts, and other recreati facilities. Neither the revenues nor costs of this facility will be included in the mc as fees are expected to cover costs. 31 Tlschler & A: .I 0 e e. Open Space In addition to the open space provided to each quadrant by Macario, the growth management standard is that 15% of total land area be set aside as open space. The City is currently conducting an open space and trails feasiblity study. 2. Operating Costs Operating costs for Parks and Recreation will be discussed in the order that they appear in the budget. a. Administration The Director does not expect major increases in this cost center. He does expect rart-time staff may need to be made permanent that, department-wide, SOF employees. b. Commission This function, $1,700 in the FY91 budget, is not expected to increase substantially due to growth. Therefore it is fEed for purposes of this analysis. c. Parks Operations Costs under this division will increase with new community centers and with acres of park land. (1) Building - Maintenance Park staff maintain bathrooms and other structures outside of community centers. These costs are discussed below under Park Maintenance. For new community centers, Facilities Maintenance costs from the Utilities & Maintenance budget wdl be projected to increase. These costs, $4.47 per square foot, are multiplied times the 15,000 square feet in new community centers for a Building Maintenance cost of $67,050 per year. (2) Park Maintenance Costs for Parks Operations will be projected to increase per acre of park land. According to the Parks Superintendent, the cost to maintain level "A" park land is $11,000 per acre per year. Level A refers to high use areas including turf and landscaping, and provides for frequent trash pickup (more than once a week). Because this per acre cost was calculated based on Parks Operations' entire FY91 32 Tlschler & Associal 0 0 P budget and on current acres maintained, it includes capital outlay for vehicles ai equipment, maintenance and replacement, and facilities maintenance activities 1 park staff. This cost will be applied against new acres of community park and spec use areas, as described above under Capital Facilities. In addition, the 6 acre site the South Carlsbad Library will cost $11,000 per acre to maintain, as discussed Section A above. Once a site for the new City Hall is established, the City will a1 incur costs for maintenance of its net additional acreage. d. Recreation ODerations This division includes staff and M&O costs to operate the 3 existing commun centers and other recreational facilities. These costs will be projected to increi with each new community center. The FY91 budget, $332,663, is divided by 3,1 Recreation Operations costs of $1 10,888 per new community center. e. Recreation - Fee Suworted This division includes staff and M&O costs to provide recreation programs residents. Fees are estimated at $750,000 in FY91, as shown on page 25 of 1 budget. They are deducted from total expenses for this division, $1,123,930, for 1 General Fund support of $373,930. This is divided by 1990 Census population 63,126, to equal $5.92. This will be the cost for recreation programs for each n resident of Carlsbad. f. Aquatics This division includes the City's costs to operate the 25 meter pool at the Su Center. A 50 meter pool will be built at Alga Norte Park around 2003. Since new pool will be twice as large as the existing facility, its operating costs are expec to be twice those of the Swim Center. Therefore the FY91 budget of $263,87' multiplied by two, for estimated operating costs of $527,758 for the Alga Norte p' g. Awa Hedionda Lagoon Due to its potential risk, the City may decide to offer the public the opportu to purchase their own liability insurance, in order to use the lagoon. Should the i no longer provide part-time staffing, this cost would not be incurred. Therefore regarded as fixed for purposes of this analysis. 33 Tischler & As 0 h. Tree Maintenance and i. Median Maintenance Increased costs for maintenance of street trees and medians will be offset by increased revenues from their respective assessment districts. Therefore neither of these activities is included in the model. j. Senior Commission This cost center, $500 in FY91, is not expected to increase significantly due to growth. k. Senior Programs - This division of the budget was $320,663 in FY91. This is divided by 1990 Census population of 63,126, to equal $5.08 per capita. This will be the City’s cost for senior programs for each new resident. 1. Senior Grant This program provides nutrition and transportation assistance. It is funded by grants. The City also receives some support for Senior grant programs through donations, estimated at $60,000 in FY91. This section of the budget is not projected to increase as a net cost to the General Fund due to new development, and therefore is regarded as fixed in this analysis. 34 Tischler & Associal I? 0 0 >* IV. CULTURE AND RECREATION A. Library Activity AlIocation Amount 1. Capital Facilities a. S. Carlsbad Library 1993 CFD b. Cole Renovation 1994 $ 500,000 d. Expand Cole Collection 1992 $ 400,000 a. New Library Staff c. CoIe Expansion 2010 CFD 2. Operating Costs (1) S. Carlsbad 1993 $ 328,864 (2) Cole 1994 $ 563,572 Media Services 1993 $ 7,558 (1) S. Carlsbad Bldg. 1993 $ 553,120 (2) S. Carlsbad Grnds. 1993 $ 66,000 (3) Cole Expansion 2010 $ 166,600 b. Part-Time Staff, c. Facility Operating Costs d. Collection Replacment Per capita $3.75 (2) Part-Time Staff 1993 $ 11,200 e. Cultural Arts (1) Gallery Director 1993 $ 36,000 (3) Gallery M&O 1993 $ 62,500 (4) Community Arts Per support capita $1.67 (5) Public Art Coord. 1995 $ 33,720 f. Sister City See text g. Audiovisual Insurance See text h. CLSA Grant Fixed i. PLF Grant Fixed NOTE: Employee benefits are calculated by TA's software. They are discusse the text but not included in these tables for positions under Cultural Arts. 35 Tischler & As .., 0 0 IV. CULTURE AND RECREATION (Continued) B. Parks and Recreation Activity Allocation Amount 1. Capital Facilities a. Community Centers (1) Alta Mira 1996 $ 2J50,000 (2) NW Quadrant 2000 $ 2,250,000 (3) Alga Norte 2003 $ 1,500,000 (4) Aviara (Zone 19) 2009 $ 2,035,000 b. Swimming Pool 2003 $ 3,000,000 c. Golf Course Debt Svc. See text d. Community Parks & Special Use Areas (1) NW Quadrant (a) 7 Acres Acquis. 1995 $ z38- Development 1996 $ 87: (b) Cannon Lake 1997 $ 84C (c) PIL Park 2000 $ 1,387. (d) Macario 2003 CFD (b) Macario 2003 CFD (2) NE Quadrant (a) Larwin Park 1992 $ 2,500,000 (c) PIL Park 2009 $ 3,525,430 (a) Alta Mira 1992 $ 3,840,000 (b) Alta Mira Tennis Center 1992 $ 1,008,000 (c) Aviara 1994 $ 1,687,500 Development 2001 ' $ 1,063,750 (3) SW Quadrant Development 1994 $ 1,200,000 (d) Macario 2006 CFD (4) SE Quadrant (a) Alga Norte 1992 $ 2,241,265 Development 1992 $ 400,000 1993 $ 750,000 2000 $ 800,000 (b) Leo Carillo 1994 $ 250,000 Development 1995 $%oO0,000 2004 $ 1,100,000 (c) Macario 2006 CFD (d) PIL Park 2007 $1,992¶840 (5) Zone 5 Indust. Pk. See text e. Openspace See text 36 Tischler & Associa 0 0 I- + IV. CULTURE AND RECREATION (Continued) B. Parks and Recreation (Continued) Activity Allocation Amount 2. Operating Costs a. Administration See text b. Commission Fixed c. Parks Operations (1) Building Per community Maintenance center $ 67,050 (2) Parks Maintenance Per acre $ 11,000 center $ 110,888 d. Recreation Operations Per community e. Recreation - Fee Supported Per capita $5.92 f. Aquatics - Alga Norte Pool 2003 $ 527,758 g. Agua Hedionda Lagoon See text h. Tree Maintenance See text i. Median Maintenance See text j. Senior Commission Fixed k. Senior Programs Per capita $5.08 1. Senior Grant Fixed 37 Tischler & Ass .< v. PUBLICWORKS A. Utilities and Maintenance Beginning in July 1991 (FY92), Sanitation and Water Senices, now in this department, will be combined with the Water District to become the new Utilities Department. In conjunction with this reorganization, Utilities & Maintenance will be renamed. Because these assumptions are based on the FY91 budget, the functions now in Utilities and Maintenance will be discussed in the order in which they appear in that document. Enterprise funded activities are not included in the model. These include Water, Sanitation and Street Lighting. 1. Capital Faciliti- a. Utilities e.- - . htenancePurchasing Warehouse Facility The warehouse will. be funded by the Community Facilities District, with construction beginning in 1997. It is intended to house the City's Purchasing Office and Warehouse, Parks Maintenance and possibly Administration, and Utilities & Maintenance Operations and Administration. b. Drainage Proiects Both drainage and street maintenance are performed by the Street Mainte- nance Division. Regarding drainage, the City recently retained a consultant to develop a 2 '3 Drainage %aster Plan. Future drainage facilities will be constructed by assessme, Astrict or _evelopers and maintained by the City. Other than one project in the current fiscal year, the CIP shows $162,000 for a storm drain at the north end of Highland Drive, to Jefferson Street. It will be offset by Planned Local Drainage Fees from Area 3. Neither these revenues nor this cost are included in this analysis. c. Street Proiects Many of the projects in the CIP are not assigned specific years, but rather are shown in the ranges "1995 to 2000" or "2000+". For the fiscal model, projects were assigned years based on their contribution to relatively level spending from year to year. That is, Intersection Improvements are $2,265,000 between 1995 and 2000, or $453,000 per year; between 2001 and 2010, they are $4,655,000 or $465,500 per year. 38 Tischler & Associa 0 0 .r l# Miscellaneous (Traffic Signal Upgrades, Guard Rails and Traffic Monitoring) a $140,000 per year between 1992 and 1995; $800,000 or $160,000 per year betwec 1995 and 2000; and $895,000 or $89,500 per year between 2001 and 2010. Maj street projects included in the model are shown below. Note that these are projei which are funded by Traffic Impact Fees, Public Facility Fees, or General Capi Construction funds. &t included in the model are costs incurred by the Commun Facilities District, the County, State, or developers. The table below shows major street projects by year. Because it does r include the CFD, the following street projects from the FY91 CIP are not shol here: LaCosta Avenue, Rancho Santa Fe, Olivenhain Road, Faraday Avenue, a Leucadia Boulevard. The Jefferson Street project is deleted due to environmen constraints. Finally, the table also does not include Underground Utility Districts and 14 in FY92 and FY93. Those costs are considered redevelopment and will I be attributed to growth. Major Street Projects Fiscal Year Amount in $1000~ Poinsettia Bridge 96 $2,000 Highland Drive 98 375 Avenida Encinas 97 700 Park Drive 98 265 El Camino Real (ECR) 99 350 Palomar Airpt. Rd. (PAR) Medians 99 500 Poinsettia Widening 2000 620 PAR Bridge 2004 4,000 Elm Avenue 2007 1,050 ECR Medians 2008 1,700 Carlsbad Blvd. 2009 800 Tamarack 2005 2,OOo Carlsbad Medians 2009 1,200 d. Bridge and Thoroughfare Proiects The CIP shows three interchanges with 1-5 under this category -- La Coi Palomar and Poinsettia. These interchanges will be funded out of the Commui Facilities District, and are not included in the model. 39 Tischler & As: I. W W e. Traffic Signals According to the Traffic Engineer, signals cost $125,000 each. The CIP contains a list of 35 projects, 3 in N91. For the fiscal model annual numbers of new signals will be based on the CIP. These numbers will be direct for N92 through FY95, and annual averages for the next 5 years (range 1995 to 2000) and the last 10 years (2000+), as shown below: Traffic Signals Fiscal Year 6 92 5 93 1 94 1 95 2.8 90-2000 0.5 2001-20 10 Sewer Proiects and g. Water Proiects f. These projects are funded by the Sanitation and Water enterprises respectively, and are not part of the model. 2. ODeratingi Costs The assumptions which follow are based on the FY91 budget. They are discussed in the order in which they appear under Utilities & Maintenance (U&M). a. Administration This cost center includes Rea. Property Management. That is, the U&M Department handles property acquisitions, sales and leases. Because the amount of space the City leases, acquires and manages is expected to continue to increase, the Director of U&M believes it will be necessary to add staff in the future. Another area of expanding responsibilities is Solid Waste Management. This is a new function for cities in California. The State mandates that solid waste be reduced by 25% in 1995 and by 50% by the year 2000. It is likely that additional staffing will be necessary to comply with State mandates. 40 Tischler & Associal 0 e t> 'I b. Street Maintenance This cost center includes the following maintenance functions: Roadsic Drainage System; City Signs; Road Surface; Pavement Striping; Miscellanec Repair; and Major Rehabilitation. The Street Maintenance Superintendent indicates that this function has so1 serious existing deficiencies. For example, there is an 18 month backlog for concrc repairs and sidewalks, due to inadequate staffing. Similarly, drainage channels n be cleaned once a year, with catch basins and sedimentation basins not addressed c to inadequate staffing. The Superintendent recommends a full-time two man CI for Drainage Maintenance, as well as two more full-time staff for Roads Maintenance (concrete and sidewalk repairs). Each of these staff is assumed to a Street Maintenance Worker 11, with FY91 Step A salary at $21,241, and bene at 33% of salary. For this analysis, one additional cement crew member will assumed in each of 1993 and 1994, with the two drainage crew members added 1995. Under the new Urban Stormwater Pollutant Control Program, the City 7 need to clean desilting basins each year, using a Grade All (large backhoe) cost $150,000 and having a 15 year life. The silt will need to be hauled in two du trucks costing $80,000 and having a 10 year life. The Grade All and dump trucks > each be operated by a Street Maintenance Worker 111, at an FY91 Step C salaq $27,735 plus 33% in benefits. For this analysis the Grade All and one dump tr and their operators will be assumed in 1993, with the second dump truck and operator added in 1996. This division also needs a full-time Maintenance Management Technician. 7 position would support all Street Maintenance functions through the follov activities: accounting, scheduling, management of outside contracts, inventory, management of automated systems. It is assumed to be equivalent to an Engineei Technician I1 or Range 50. In FY91 Step A this salary is $28,347, plus benefits. ' Technician was requested last year, and will be assumed for 1992. 41 Tischler & As .? w W Finally, the budget for outside contractual senices for Street Maintenance needs to be increased, especially if the City does not add staff and equipment as described above. This increased level of service is not included here. The existing Street Maintenance budget will be projected to increase per mile of City street maintained. According to the Traffic Engineer, Carlsbad now maintains 219.5 miles of street. When this is divided into FY91 expenses of $2,799,103, the result is $12,773 per mile, or $2.42 per linear foot. The Street Maintenance division prefers to show lane miles maintained. However, projecting lane miles of new road is beyond the scope of this analysis. Miles of new City street will be projected as follows. First, major street projects are shown in the year assigned in the FY91 CIP or in the Cost and Project Schedule for the Community Facilities District. Then the Traffic Engineer estimated lengths of additions for arterials. Two projects from the CIP are not shown below. Jefferson Street is not feasible due to environmental constraints, and Tamarack is not a new road segment, but rather improvement of an existing one. Major Street Project Year Estimated Feet Cannon Road 1992 6,500 College - N. of El Camino 2007 11,000 S. of Palomar 2004 6,ooo Far -ay 2000 5,000 Me:;xe 2002 9,000 Rancho Santa Fe 1994 8,000 In addition, developers will build local roads which will be maintained by the City. The Engineering Department projects feet of local road by the types of land use included in this study as follows: Land Use Feet of Road Single Family (avg. 2.95 units per acre) Multi Family (7.6 units per acre) Nonresidential (avg. 40,000 sq. ft. 0.005 feet of road per building) nonresidential sq. ft. 40 feet per unit 30 feet per unit 200 feet per bldg., or 42 Tischler & Associa I 0 a * '. c. Facilities Maintenance The Facilities Maintenance Superintendent indicates that the square f maintained by the City have tripled in the last 5 years, with newer facilities be more sophisticated. He recommends that the existing level of maintenance ; remodeling (13 projects totaling $361,200 on page 133 of the FY91 budget) continued, with more emphasis on preventive rather than deferred maintenance. eisting staff, the Superintendent has one full-time temporary custodial position wl should be made permanent. Regarding new staff, when the City adds the 64, square foot South Carlsbad Library and the 96,000 square foot New City Hall, Superintendent recommends adding an electrician and an HVAC mechanic, ral than continuing to use outside contracting. For this analysis, the two positions assumed to be added with the opening of New City Hall, in 2002. The first posi will be a Maintenance Electrician with Range 38 Step A salary of $25,156 in F7 The second position is estimated at Range 55 Step A or $29,793 in FY91. For this analysis, Facilities Maintenance expenses are projected to increase square foot of new building. The FY91 total for this division, $1,444,283, is divi by the current number of square feet maintained, 323,102. The result, $4.47 square foot, is applied against the New City Hall under Section I, Gen Government, and new Libraries and Community Centers under Section IV, Cul and Recreation. The new U&M Warehouse is assumed to be 20,000 square feet for Facil Maintenance costs of $89,400. Assuming two years for construction, the City incur this cost beginning in 1999. d. Traffic Signals This division will need to add a Signal Maintenance Technician in the fui to make minor repairs to the controller at each signalized intersection. The U Department as a whole has two electricians who work on signals, street lights facilities maintenance. 43 Tischler & As .. w 0 For this analysis the FY91 budget for this division, $328,533, is divided by the current number of signals maintained, 59. The result, $5,568 per year, will be applied against new signals from the CIP, as discussed above under Capital Facilities. e. Buena Vista Creek Channel Maintenance This activity is funded by an assessment district. It is not expected to be significantly impacted by new development. Therefore neither this cost nor its offsetting revenues will be projected to increase in this analysis. f. Street Lighting; This activity is funded through assessments on benefiting parcels. Assessments are set to cover costs. Neither revenues nor costs associated with Street Lighting are included in the model. g. Sanitation Services This division of the budget is part of the Sanitation Enterprise Fund. Because rates are set to cover costs, neither these expenses nor associated revenues are included in the model. h. Water Services Activities under this division are part of the Water Enterprise Fund, which is not included in the model. i. Fleet Or-&-:ations This is + - Internal Ser b3c Funded activity which includes vehicle repair and maintenance. For those departments projecting new vehicles, such as Police and Fire (Section 11, Public Safety), Fleet Operations costs are estimated per new vehicle. The only division of U&M directly projecting new vehicles, Street Maintenance, currently has 25 vehicles assigned to it. This number is divided into Object 2111, Vehicle Maintenance, in the FY91 Expenditure Summary Report for the division, $110,350. The result, $4,414, will be the increased cost per year for the new Grade All and the two new dump trucks for Street Maintenance. 44 Tischler & Associal 0 0 m u j. Vehicle Replacement This cost center is also an Internal Service Funded activity. In this analy vehicle replacement costs are included for those departments adding vehicles direci such as Police and Fire. In other cases, where operating costs are shown to increi as a whole, Vehicle Maintenance and Vehicle Replacement costs are included allocated throughout the budget. B. Water District As explained above, enterprise funded activities such as the Water Disti are not included in the model. This is because rates are set to cover costs, and 1 fiscal model is intended to concentrate on the General Fund and the major Capj Funds. 45 Tischler & As! e u v. PUBLIC WORKS A. Utilities & Maintenance 1. Capital Facilities Activity Allocation Amount a. U&M Warehouse 1997 CFD b. Drainage Projects See text c. Street Projects (1) Intersection Improvements (a) Annl. Avg. 1996-2000 $45 3,000 (b) Annl. Avg. 2001-2010 465,500 (a) Annl. Avg. 1992-1995 140,000 (b) Annl. Avg. 1996-2000 160,000 (c) Annl. Avg. 2001-2010 89,500 (2) Miscellaneous Projects (3) Major St. Projs. d. Bridge & Thor. Projs. CFD e. Traffic Signals See text 125,000 f. Sewer & g. Water Projects See text a. Administration See text b. Street Maintenance See text 2. Operating Costs (1) Cement Repair 1993 & 1994 21,241 (2) Drainage Crew 1995 42,482 (3) Grade All Oper. 1993 27,735 (4) Truck Opers. 1993 & 1996 27,735 28,347 (6) Grade All 1993 150,000 (7) Dump Trucks 1993 & 1996 80,000 r (8) Operating Costs Per foot of road 2.42 (5) Maint. Mgt. Tech. 1992 c. Facilities Maint. Per sq. ft. (1) U&M Warehouse 1999 89,400 (2) Maint. Electric. 2002 25,156 (3) WAC Mechanic 2002 29,793 e. B.V. Creek, f. St. Ltg., g. Sanit., & h. Wtr. Svcs. i. Fleet Operations Per Grade AlVtrk. 4,414 j. Vehicle Replacement d. Traffic Signals Per signal 5,568 See text (1) Grade All Per year 10,Ooo (2) Dump Trucks Per year ~,OOo B. Water District See text NOTE: Employee benefits are calcuated in model bc iot shown here. 46 Tlschler & Associal 0 0 * (A 4 VI. REVENUES A. GeneralFund 1. Taxes a. ProDertv Tax The City's share of this tax is 18% to 20% of 1% of the market value of I property. For this analysis the midpoint of 19% will be used. Under Prop 13, amount of this tax may increase by 2% per year, assuming inflation is more than 2 Because this analysis is using constant 1991 dollars, the 2% increase will not included. Similarly, when real property changes ownership, the property tax increz to reflect the most recent sale price. Such resale or turnover of real property 1 likewise not be included in this analysis. It is assumed that these increases property tax collection will be used by the City to keep pace with cost increases ( to inflation, salary increases, and other expenses associated as much with sen existing residents as with new development. Market values for single family and multi-family dwelling units, and off commercial and industrial buildings, were developed by Keyser Marston Associz (KMA) of San Diego. The single family category includes both Residential Low i Residential Low Medium density units. Residential Low or Estate homes will 11.2% of new single family units between now and buildout. KMA assigns the1 median market value of $9OO,OOO. Residential Low Medium will be the remair 88.8% of new single family units. Their median market value is $275,000. ' weighted median market value for both types of single family units is thus $345,: Residen Medium, Medium High, and High. Residential Medium or townhomes will be 5 of new multi-family units. Their median market value is $185,000. Residen Medium High or condominiums will be 32.7% of new multi-family units, wit median market value of $135,000. Residential High or rental apartments will 8.3% of new multi-family units, with a median market value of $75,000. ' weighted median market value for the three types of multi-family units is $159,; The multi-family category includes the following densities: 47 Tischler & As W W .r For nonresidential space, KMA has provided median market values of $125 per office square foot, $80 per industrial square foot, and $145 per retail square foot. b. Sales Tax This revenue will be projected to increase per square foot of retail develop- ment in the City. The FY91 estimate, $11 million, is divided by KMA's current estimate of commercial square feet, 3,285,800. The result, $3.35, will be applied against new square feet of commercial development projected by KMA. C. Transient Tax This is a 10% tax on hotel and motel rooms in Carlsbad. While a specific project such as the Four Seasons Hotel at Aviara can be projected in some detail, long-term projections of numbers of rooms, years of construction, and daily rates are not available. Absent such detailed projections, revenue from this source will be projected to increase with both population and employment. That is, some visitors to Carlsbad are assumed to have a business purpose, for which jobs are a proxy. Other visitors are assumed to be considering relocating, for which population is a P'OXY- The FY91 estimate for Transient Tax is $3,700,000. This is divided by the sum of 1990 population, 63,126, and employment, 32,826, or 95,952. The result, $38.56, will be the increase in this revenue generated by each new resident and job in Carlsbad. d. Franchise Tax The sources of this revenue include sales by San Diego Gas & Electric Company and Daniels Cablevision. It will be projected to increase with residential development, for which population is a proxy. Its FY91 estimate, $700,000, is divided by population of 63,126. The result, $11.09, will be the increase in Franchise Tax for each new resident of Carlsbad. 48 Tischler & Associa 0 0 *- ,I % e. Transfer Tax The City collects $0.55 per $l,OOO on the sale of real property. For ti analysis the Transfer Tax will be calculated against market values of new develc ment. While the City also receives this revenue on turnover of real property, discussed above under the Property Tax, resales are not included in this analysis f. Trailer Coach In-Lieu The source of this revenue is mobile homes taxed as vehicles. While t future may see more manufactured housing in Carlsbad, mobile homes of this ty are not expected to increase. Therefore this revenue is fxed for purposes of tl analysis. 2. Licenses and Permits a. Construction Permits Building Permit revenues from new development will be calculated as folloi Single family units are assumed to average 2,780 square feet. This is based on t General Plan’s estimates of units remaining to buildout. Of total single family, 11.2 are Residential Low (1 unit per acre) and 88.8% are Residential Low Medium (- units per acre). According to the City’s Building Official, large lot single fady un are around 5,000 square feet, and regular lot single family units are around 2,5 square feet. The weighted average of the two types is 2,780 square feet. The FY multiplier for single family building valuation is $72 per square foot. For the avera 2,780 square foot unit, valuation will be $200,160. The Building Permit will be $9 ($639.50 for the first $lOO,OOO, plus $3.50 for each additional $l,OOO). Multifamily units will be a combination of the Residential Medium, Resident Medium High, and Residential High zoning categories, or an average of 8.9 units 1 acre. The Building Official suggests a prototype size of 1,250 square feet. When tl is multiplied times the N91 valuation of $62 per square foot, the result is $77,5 per unit. The Building Permit will be $538 ($414.50 for the first $50,000, plus $4. for each additional $l,OOO). Building Permits for nonresidential development will be calculated in units 40,000 square feet. The FY91 valuation for Type V-N Office is $53, or $2,12O,C 49 Tischler & Ass1 r W w per office building. The Building Permit will be $5,780 ($3,:. $l,O00,OOO, plus $2 for each additional $1,000). 1 for the first The valuation for Type V-N Industrial Plant is $28, or $1,12O,Ciiiii per industrial building. The Building Permit will be $3,780 ($3,539.50 for the first $1,000,000, plus $2 for each additional $1,000). The valuation for Type V-N Stores is $36, or $1,440,000 per commercial building. The Building Permit will be $4,420 ($3,539.50 for the first $1,000,000, plus $2 for each additional $1,000). b" Business Licenses This revenue will be projected to increase per square foot of nonresic.. ial development. Its FY91 estimate, $875,000, is divided by estimated square feet in Carlsbad in 1990, 13,795,299. The result, $0.06, will be the revenue from Business Licenses for each new square foot of nonresidential development in the City. C. License Tax - Construction This revenue has been supplanted by the Public Facility Fee. For purposes of this analysis, it is regarded as fmed. d. Other Licenses & Permits This category includes a number of sources. Pese revenues are projected to increase with population. Their FY91 amount, $3m1- ~00, is divided by population of 63,126, for a per capita amount of $4.75. 3. State Subventions a. Ciparette - Tax Since smoking is declining, this revenue is not expected to increase, and is fixed in this analysis. b. Vehicle In Lieu This revenue is based on the value of automobiles owned by residents of Carlsbad. It is projected to increase with population, but not directly. That is, given State budgetary constrair the level of this revenue is not expected to keep pace with growth. Therefore f- ,I1 be projected to increase on a partial per capita basis. 50 Tischler & Associal 0 * & ” 4 The FY91 estimate, $2,250,000, is divided by 1990 population of 63,126. The res1 $35.64, is multiplied times 75% for a partial per capita amount of $26.73. C. Homeowners ProDertv Tax Reimbursement This revenue is not expected to increase due to new development, and is fi~ in this analysis. 4. Charges for Services a. Planning Fees These fees will be discussed in the order that they are charged during development process. Over 40 of the Development Processing Fees in the City’s I of Fees dated August 27, 1990, and updated February 19, 1991, relate to Plann, Many of these fees are minor in nature, such as variances, appeals, revisions, i postage. Others are impossible to project for the over-20 year period to residen buildout, or 40 year period to nonresidential buildout. These include Conditional I Permits, Local Coastal Plan Amendments, Special Use Permit Flood Plain, and Z Code Amendment. The major types of Planning Fees associated with new development discussed below. (1) Facilities Management Fee According to the Growth Management Program’s Comprehensive Monitoi Report for 1986 through 1990, as of December 31,1990, Zones 10,17,23 and 25 1 not yet submitted Local Facilities Management Plans (LFMPs). According to Director of Planning, this fee is estimated at $lO,OOO for the application deposit, 1 time and costs for plan review, up to an additional $20,000 for a 1,OOO acre za Using the estimate of $20 per acre above the $lO,OOO deposit, and multiplying th acres per zone provided by Keyser Marston Associates (KMA), the Facili Management Fee can be calculated as shown below. The year of application 3 assigned based on perceived development pressure, and in accordance with Planning Director’s estimate of the need to add staff, discussed in Section 111 abc 51 ‘Tischler & As w w c Zone Gross Acres Total Fee Year 10 765.9 $25,318 1995 17 592.7 21,854 1997 23 282.9 15,658 1999 25 288.1 15,762 1993 These revenues are identified as Zone Plan Fees on page 25 of the FY91 budget. (2) Environmental Impact Report Normally before development can proceed in a totally undeveloped zone, at least one Environmental Impact Report (EIR) is prepared. The cost per EIR is estimated at $5,250. In addition to the 4 zones above, development in 5 other zones is assumed to eventually require an EIR. These are the 3 zones whose plans were accepted for technical review as of 12-31-90, zones 13, 16 and 21. To these are added zones 14 and 18, whose plans were submitted in 1990, but where KMA shows little development having occurred. It is necessary to allocate EIR fees to years in the fiscal model. Therefore zones are assumed to pay this fee as follows: Zone Year Zone Year 14 1992 25 1994 18 1992 10 1996 21 1993 17 1998 13 1993 23 2000 16 1993 (3) Master Plan or Specific Plan The next major planning fee is for a Master Plan or Specific Plan. For this analysis, it is assumed that a Master Plan or Specific Plan will be required in all the 9 zones above. The fee structure would be $9,980 plus $15 per acre. Zone Acres Fee Year 14 821.2 $22,298 1993 21 261.8 13,907 1994 16 414.1 16,192 1993 10 765.9 21,469 1997 17 592.7 18,871 1998 23 282.9 14,224 1997 18 906.0 23,570 1992 13 678.5 20,158 1992 25 288.1 14,302 1995 52 Tischler & ASSOCI~ 0 0 -. * (4) General Plan Amendment Once each zone's Master Plan or Specific Plan is submitted and approved, approved land uses are incorporated into the General Plan by Amendment. The for this is $2,100. It will be shown in the year following the Master Plan for eack the 9 zones above. The next major step in the development process generates revenues fr these sources: Tentative Tract Maps (Major Subdivisions); Planned Developmei and Site Development Plans. These revenues will be estimated as follows. (5) Tentative Tract Mam Tentative Tract Maps are submitted for major subdivisions. For this anal. the zones with residential development will be assigned this revenue based on City's Growth Management Program. Exhibit 5 in the January 1991 Comprehens Monitoring Report shows "Citywide Phasing Projections." Projected annual r housing units by zone from this exhibit will be used to calculate revenues fr Tentative Tract Maps, based on the February 1991 fee schedule. The resul estimated annual revenues as follows: Year Estimated Year Estimated Revenues Revenues 1992 $27,320 2003 $37,830 1993 47,810 2004 36,780 1994 47,810 2005 36,780 1995 44,670 2006 36,780 1996 42,040 2007 36,780 1997 42,040 2008 36,780 1998 42,040 2009 32,580 1999 42,040 2010 32,580 2000 42,040 201 1 3 1,OOO 2001 42,040 2012 21,540 2002 42,040 2013 7,880 It should be noted that most of the remaining residential land in Carasbad will i require a Hillside Permit ($370) or a Coastal Permit ($360). Assuming such pen were collected with each Tentative Tract Map, the revenue to the City would 53 Tischler & As W W e around $34,000. Due to this relatively low level, these revenues are not included in the model. (6) Planned Development Fee Some of the subdivisions with maps above will also generate this fee. The fee will be assumed to be for groups of 300 to 500 units, at $10,500 per group. Again, based on the Growth Management Monitoring Report, new units per zone per year are used to calculate this fee. This will result in the following revenues: Year Estimated Year Estimated Revenues Revenues 1992 $73,500 2003 $21,000 1995 21,000 2006 21,000 1996 52,500 2007 21,000 1997 21,000 2008 52,500 1998 31,500 2009 10,500 1999 31,500 2010 10,500 2001 10,500 2002 42,000 199s 63,000 2004 10,500 1994 21,000 2005 31,500 2000 31,500 2011 10;500 (7) Site Development Plan A major Site Development Plan will be assumed for each 682,000 quare feet. This is KhU 5 estimate of average annual demand for nonresidentiL- space in Carlsbad between 1990 and 2010. This will generate a fee of $5,250 per year. It should be noted that industrially zoned land will generate $530 per permit. Because the basis for projecting this revenue is conservative, the exclusion of Planned Industrial Permits should not result in a major overstatement of this source. b. Building Department Fees In addition to Building Permits, identified as Construction Permits on page 25 of the FY91 budget and discussed above, the City collects fees for Plumbing, Electrical and Mechanical Permits. The City’s Building Official estimates these permits by type of construction as follows: 54 Tlschler & Associa 0 e ?. *c3 * Type of Construction Plumbing, Electrical & Mechanical Single Family Unit $109 Multi Family Unit 59 (10,000 sq. ft.) 221 Nonresidential Building C. Engineering Fees The Engineering Department will receive Improvement Inspection and F Check Fees and Grading Permit and Plan Check Fees on new constructi However, there will also be offsetting costs to the General Fund for Engineering si time, consulting services, and other expenses. Therefore neither these revenues their associates costs are included in the model. d. Weed Cleaning The source of this revenue is undeveloped land in the City. Fees from source are not expected to increase. Therefore this revenue is fxed in this anal) e. Ambulance Fees This revenue is projected to increase with population. Its FY91 estim; $230,000, is divided by 1990 population of 63,126. The result, $3.64, will be increase in Ambulance Fees for each new resident of the City. f. Recreation Fees These fees were deducted from the operating costs for the recreat programs for which they are collected. This is discussed in Section IV above, un Parks and Recreation. g. Other Charges - or Fees This revenue is projected to increase with population. Its FY91 estim $475,000, is divided by population of 63,126, for a per capita amount of $7.52. 55 Tischler & As! t W W 5. Fines and Forfeitures These revenues are projected to increase with population. Their FY91 estimate, $550,000, is divided by population of 63,126, for a per capita amount of $8.71. 6. Interest The source of this revenue is interest on fund balances. It is not expected to increase significantly in the future, and is fiied in this analysis. 7. Interdepartmental Charges - This category accounts for exchanges between the General Fund and the City’s Internal SeIvice Funds. It is not a source of revenue per se. 8. Other Revenue Sources This category includes reimbursements the City receives from a number of sources. This revenue is not expected to increase due to new development, and is fixed in this analysis. B. Special Revenue Funds 1. CDBG and Housing - Grants As discussed above under Section I, these grants fund housing and redevelop- ment activities which are not expected to increase as a function of new development. Neither, these revenues nor associated expenses are included in this analysis. 2. Police Asset Forfeiture The source of this revenue is the sale of stolen property and other contraband. The proceeds are used to purchase police equipment. Neither these revenues nor associated expenses are included in this analysis. 3. Audiovisual Insurance The City collects this revenue on videotapes rented from the Library. The Neither these revenues nor proceeds are used to purchase more videotapes. associated expenses are included in this analysis. 56 Tischler & Associal 0 0 & 'r' 4) 4. Street Lighting This fund accounts for assessments on benefiting parcels. Assessments are to cover costs. Neither these revenues nor associated costs are included in model. 5. Street Tree and 6. Median Maintenance As discussed above in Section IV.B., Parks and Recreation, neither reveni nor costs for Street Tree or Median Maintenance will be included in this analys 7. Buena Vista Channel This activity is discussed above under Section V.A., Utilities and Maintenar It is not expected to be significantly impacted by new development. Theref neither these revenues nor associated costs are included here. 8. State Grants These grants support Library services, as discussed in Section IV above. Gii State budgetary constraints, neither these revenues nor their associated costs included here. 9. Senior Proaams These revenues are discussed above in Section IV.B., Parks and Recreati Senior Grants and the activities they support are fixed for purposes of this analj The City also receives donations for Senior Programs, but this source of revenu too variable to include in the model. C. Debt Service Funds Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA's) software will calculate debt service on fut capital facilities. These funds account for debt service on existing facilities, and fixed in this analysis. D. As explained above, the fiscal model is being set up with the General Fi and Capital Funds. Because revenues to the enterprise funds are based on r~ which are set to cover costs, they are not included in the model at this time. Enterprise Funds and E. Water District Funds 57 Tischler & As (t w w F. Internal Services Funds This series of funds is internal to City operations. They represent costs from activities conducted by one department, which are allocated or "expensed out" to the other departments using their services. These funds do not represent net revenues to the City, and will not be shown to increase here. G. Other Funds These funds -- Redevelopment, Low and Moderate Income Housing, and Tax Increment Bond Debt Service -- relate to housing and redevelopment activities discussed in Section I above. Neither these revenues nor their associated expenses are projected to increase significantly due to new development. Therefore they are fixed in this analysis. H. Capital Funds 1. General Capital Construction This fund represents general revenues which are used for minor capital projects on a pay-as-you-go basis. It will not be projected as a separate revenue in this analysis. Rather, TA's software will calculate General Fund revenues from new development and compare those funds to the annual and cumulative total of capital and operating costs required to serve growth. 2. Public Facilitv Fee The PFF is used to fund capital projects needed to serve new development. Since establishment of the Community Facilities District, it is set at 1.82% of building valuation. As descnied above under Construction Permits, the following building valuations will be used in this analysis: Type of Construction Building Valuation BFF @ 1.82% Multi Family Unit 77,500 1,411 Nonresidential Buildings (40,000 square feet) Single Family Unit $ 200,160 $3,643 Office 2,120,000 38,584 Industrial 1,120,000 20,384 Commercial 1,440,Ooo 26,208 58 Tischler & Associal e 0 J.z 4- 3. Park In-Lieu Fees If developers of residential subdivisions choose not to dedicate park land the City, they pay this fee (PIL). PIL fees are calculated based on the Citywi Phasing Projections in the 1991 Growth Management Comprehensive Monitorj Report, excluding the following zones which will not pay PIL fees: 4, 5, 9, 10, 12, and 19. In zone 11, one-third of the remaining units (around 900) will pay this fi The February 1991 fee schedule will be used. (The FY92 budget will ref3 the new fee schedule which was adopted in April 1991.) For the Southeast quadr; the fee per single family unit is $983. For the other three quadrants the fee I single family unit is $786. PIL fees for multi-family units are divided into two categories: 4 units or le and 5 units or more. For this analysis the category of 5 units or more will assumed for new multi-family dwellings. For the Southeast quadrant this fee is $( per unit. For the other three quadrants the fee is $524 per unit. Of total new units in Carlsbad between the present and residential buildc 47.4% are projected to be single family and 52.6% multi-family. These percentaj will be applied to the PIL fees to result in weighted averages of $810 per unit for 1 Southeast quadrant and $648 per unit for the other three quadrants. These weigh averages will be multiplied times eligiile units from the Citywide Phasing Projectic to calculate annual PIL revenues in the model. 4. Zone 5 Park Fee As discussed in Section N.B., Parks and Recreation, nonresiden development in zone 5 is assessed a park fee of $0.40 per square foot. This will used to develop recreational facilities in the zone. associated costs are included in the model. Neither this revenue 5. Traffic ImDact Fee The City is divided into two districts for the TIF. The northern two-third in the Carlsbad district. For this analysis that will be assumed to coincide with gro management zones 1 through 5, 7, 8, 10, 13 through 18, 20 through 22, 24 and In actuality portions of zones 4, 10, 18 and 21 are in both districts. Rather t 59 Tischler & As 3 w W splitting zones, the shared areas are assigned to the district with the lower fees, Carlsbad. The La Costa district is assigned the remaining zones: 6, 9, 11, 12, 19 and 23. Because KMA's projections will not distinguish between condominiums and apartments, the TIF for apartments will be applied to multi family units. The following residential rates will be used. Since establishment of the Community Facilities District, rates are reduced to 62% of their previous levels. District Type of Unit TIF Carlsbad Single Family $372 Carlsbad Multi Family 223 Ea Costa Single Family 415 La Costa Multi Family 249 As explained on page 155 of the FY91 budget, for nonresidential development the TIF is calculated at $289 per 1,000 square feet. This is based on $17 per trip and average daily trips of 17 per 1,000 square feet. When this is reduced due to the CFD, the result is $179 per 1,OOO square feet (62% of $289). 6. Bridge and Thoroughfare Fee This fee has been replaced by the Community Facilities District. The CFD is not included in the model. 7. Sewer Construction This revenue is to the Sanitation enterprise fund, whi ' not included in the model. 8. Transwe, and 9. - These funds are sz. tax revenues which are distribuitd in the San Diego region by means of a fairly complex formula. Carlsbad's share of these revenues is difficult to forecast. Due to that fact, neither these revenues nor the few projects they are assigned to in the CIP are included here. 10. San Diego Gas & Electric This accounts for SDG&Es reimbursement of the City for underqounding Therefore utilities and street lights. It is not expected to be a recurring expens 60 Tischler & Associa 0 e IC ,&I 0 neither these revenues nor their associated projects (such as Underground Uti1 Districts 13 and 14) are included here. 11. Bridge Reulacement This was a federal grant for a specific project and is not expected to be recurring expense. 12. Libram Bonds This accounts for the proceeds of the sale of bonds for the South Carlsb Library. The library will be funded by the Community Facilities District, with its dc service not included here. 13. Golf Bonds This accounts for the proceeds of the sale of bonds for development of a gi course at Calavera Lake. The golf course is considered a commitment to existi residents, and its costs will not be included here. 14. Public Art This fund accounts for 1% of the value of all capital projects from unrestrict funds (i.e., General Capital Construction) which the City dedicates to the purchz of public art. Neither these revenues nor their associated projects will be detail in this analysis. 15. Federal, 16. State, and 17. Countv Grants These grants are tied to specific capital facilities, and are not projected increase here. 18. Planned Local Drainage The City% List of Fees shows 13 areas from the master Drainage Plan, 10 which have set fees per gross acre. As discussed above under Section V.A., Utilitj and Maintenance, future drainage facilities are assumed to be built by develope In fact, the CIP shows only $162,000 for one drainage project in the period cover by this analysis (FY92 through buildout), which is offset by fees from drainage ar 3. Neither these revenues nor associated projects are included here. 61 Tlschler & Ass w 19. Water Proiects This was formerly a revenue to the Water Enterprise Fund, but has been replaced by the Major Facility Charge. It is not included in the model. 20. Assessment Districts This fund accounts for assessments collected in reimbursement of construction of specific projects. 21. Port District This fund accounts for dredging of the Batequitos Lagoon. It is not expected to be a recurring expense. 22. Letter of Credit, Zone 19 This fund accounts for developer contributions toward a park in Aviara. The City will repay the developer from Public Facilities Fees. 23. Developer Funds This represents payment for widening of Palornar Airport Road, in FY91. Neither these revenues nor associated costs are included here, as the first year of analysis is FY92. 24. Gas Tax This revenue is distniuted by the State based on a formula which includes population. It will be projected to increase on a per capita basis. The FY91 estimate, $935,000, is divided by 1990 Census population of 53,126. The result, $14.81, will be applied against new residents projected by Kh/i.-s. This revenue will be earmarked for Street Maintenance in this analysis. 25. CDBG These federal funds are used for redevelopment activities whose costs are not expected to increase significantly due to new development. Neither these revenues nor associated costs are included here. 62 Tlschler & Associ: m 0 .A o",' ,+ VI. REVENUES A. General Fund 1. Taxes Activity Allocation Amount a. Property Tax Per market value $0.0019 b. Sales Tax Per retail sq. ft. $ 3.35 d. Franchise Tax Per capita $ 11.09 c. Transient Tax Per capita & per job $ 38.56 e. Transfer Tax Per $1,000 f. Trailer Coach In-Lieu Fixed a. Construction Permits Per building See valuation text b. Business Licenses Per nonresidential c. License Tax- d. Other Licenses & market value $ 0.55 2. Licenses and Permits square foot $ 0.06 Construction Fixed Permits Per capita $ 4.75 3. State Subventions a. Cigarette Tax Fixed b. Vehicle In Lieu Partial per capita $ 26.73 c. Homeowners Property Tax Reimbursement Fixed 4. Charges for Services a. Planning Fees (1) Facilities (2) Environmental (3) Master Plan or (4) General Plan (5) Tentative Tract (6) Planned Develop- (7) Site Development Management Fee Per zone See text Impact Report Per zone $ 5,250 Specific Plan Per zone See text Amendment Per zone $ 2,100 Maps Per year See text ment Fee Per year See text Plan Per year See text Fees construction See text b. Building Department Per type of 63 Tischler & As! r-b w w VI. REVENUES (Continued) A. General Fund (Continued) Activity Allocation Amount 4. Charges for Services (Cont.) c. Engineering Fees See text d. Weed Cleaning Fixed e. Ambulance Fees Per capita $ 3.64 f. Recreation Fees See text g. Other Charges Per capita $ 7.52 5. Fines and Forfeitures Per capita $ 8.71 6. Interest Fixed 7. Interdepartmental See text 8. Other Revenue Sources Fixed 1. CDBG and Housing Fixed 2. Police Asset Forfeiture Fixed 3. Audiovisual Insurance Fixed 4. Street Lighting See text 5. Street Tree Maintenance Fixed 6. Median Maintenance Fixed 7. Buena Vista Channel Fixed 8. State Grants Fixed 9. Senior Programs See text C. Debt Service Funds See text E. Water District Funds F. Internal Services Funds See text G. Other Funds Fixed H. Capital Funds B. Special Revenue Funds D. Enterprise Funds See text I 1. General Capital Construction See text 2. Public Facility Fee Per building valuation 1.82% 3. Park In-Lieu Fees Per year See text 4. Zone 5 Park Fee See text 5. Traffic Impact Fee Per type of 6. Bridge & Thor. Fee See text 7. Sewer Construction See text 8. TransNet and 9. TransNet Highway See text 10. San Diego Gas & Electric Fixed 11. Bridge Replacement Fixed construction See text 64 Tischler & Associat @ e 4 k: 6" VI. REVENUES (Continued) H. Capital Funds (Continued) Activity Allocation- Amount 12. Library Bonds See text 13. Golf Bonds See text 14. Public Art See text 15. Federal, 16. State and 17. County Grants Fixed 18. Planned Local Drainage See text 19. Water Projects See text 20. Assessment Districts See text 21. Port District Fixed 22. Letter of Credit, Zone 19 Fixed 23. Developer Funds Fixed 24. Gas Tax Per capita $ 14.81 25. CDBG Fixed 65 Tischier & As: 1 6 9 * @3d FINAL REPORT CARLSBAD GENERAL PLAN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS LAND USE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS May 1991 Submitted to: City of Carisbad Finance Department Submitted by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 7690 El Camino Real, Suite 202 Carlsbad, California 92009 (619) 942-0380 Golden Gateway Commons 55 Pacific Avenue Mall San Francisco, California 9411 1 .. (4 15) 398-3050 500 South Grand Avenue Suite 1480 Los Angelcs, Cdifornia 90071 (213) 622-8095 *. Under Subcontract to: 'Tiscliler 6L Associates, Inc. KeyserMarstonAssoc I I v * CARLSBAD GENERAL PLAN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS LAND USE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION - PA Introduction and Background Principal Findings and Conclusions Survey of Growth Management Policies Residential Land Use Projection Projected Residential Absorption by Quadrant Office Land Use Projection Industrial Land Use Projection Commercial Land Use- Projection Limiting Conditions and Assumptions Technical Appendices I. 11. Residential Land Use Projection Summary of Land Use Projections 111. Office Land Use Projection IV. Industrial Land Use Projection V. Commercial Land Use Projection VI. Growth Management Policies cbdrepor.3 i t 0 0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) was requested to prepare a land use econo analysis for the fiscal impact analysis of the Carlsbad General Plan. The land use econo analysis was intended to mist City staff and Tischler & Associates (the City's fiscal im] consultant) in identification of alternatives to the existing General Plan. The specific M tasks can be summarized as follows: (1) Review demographic and economic trends for Carlsbad and other N County cities; Assess market factors and development trends for both residential and residential land uses in Carlsbad; Formulate absorption projections by type of land use; and Compare anticipated land area requirements with existing land allocations. (2) (3) (4) KMA's analysis considered the following major land use types: single-family and n family residential; office; industrial; and commercial retail. Hotel uses were specif omitted from this analysis for several key reasons. First, the current hotel mark significantly overbuilt, and this trend can be expected to continue well into the 1990s surplus inventory is absorbed. Secondly, while there are possibly a few sites for major r development remaining in Carlsbad, most new hotels are likely to require relatively li amounts of land. Lastly, demand for new hotel rooms in coastal North County is larj function of statewide or national economic conditions, making a linear projection o hotel. room absorption difficult. In completing this assignment, KMA reviewed the extensive available documentation r( to planning and growth issues in Carlsbad. These have included: the General Plan ( Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (1986), Local Facility Management Plans of the 25 zones (1987-1990), Citywide Residential and Non-Residential Phasing Proje (1991 update), Growth Management Status Reports (year-end 1989 and 1990), and the 1991 Operating and Capital Budget. In addition, KMA contacted numerous other sc for statistical information, including local real estate brokers; Urban Decision System Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); and other state and local agencies. I: Turrier, Don Rideout, and Brian Hunter of the Carlsbad Community Develo Department were aIso extremely helpful in providing information necessary for this ar This report is not intended as a detailed regional market analysis for commerci: residential uses in North County. Instead, KMA has gathered relevant market infor1 for Carlsbad and competing North County cities with the specific objective of formi 1 1 r r 9 0 absorption projections by type of land use. It is important to note that our land use dem projections are based on the assumption that future demographic and economic trends resemble the recent past. However, it is difficult to project with any accuracy future ma conditions beyond a five- to ten-year time period. KMA recommends, therefore, that findings of this study be considered primarily as order-of-magnitude estimates of pass future deveIopment trends. The Iimiting conditions and assumptions listed at the end of report also apply. The overall methodology employed in the land use economic analysis may be summa1 as follows: SteD I: Based on extensive review of recent demographic and econc conditions and historic development trends and market activity, K projected future demand for residential and non-residential land ' Specifically, KMA has forecasted demand for single-family reside] multi-family residential, office, industrial, and commercial land 1' Based on a review of City documents and discussions with plai and growth management staff, KMA compiled informatioi remaining developable inventory by land use type for each Ideally, it would have been preferable to use figures for remainin developable acreage by type of land use. However, acreage data not readily available for all zones in the City. KMA therefore use City's buiIdout projections in terms of remaining developable bu square footage (GSF) or residential units (DU's). (In compilin information, KMA reviewed the updated 1991 Citywide Resid and Non-Residential Phasing Projections and Local Fac Management Plans with Don Rideout of Growth Management.) summarized inventory figures for remaining developable resid units and non-residential square footage to the quadrant level. assumed average densities, KMA then converted the develo inventory information to remaining net developable acres by lar type. As a final step, KMA compared the supply of land for each use ( on the present land area allocations in the General Plan) with E land use demand projections. SteD 2: Ster, 3: This memorandum is intended as a technical report for inclusion in the fiscal impact a being completed by Tischler & Associates. The text of the report is followed by a Tec Appendix consisting of six sections. Section I contains summary tables regarding la supply, projected absorption, residential and non-residential buildout, and impa jobs/housing balance. Sections I1 through V present the supporting documentation 1 four land use demand projections. Section VI presents the findings of KMA's SUI 2 1 r e 0 growth management policies in North County. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Land Use Demand Forecasts KMA's land use projections for residential and non-residential uses are summarized in T 1-1. As shown in the table, KMA's projections indicate demand through 2010 approximately 542 single-family units and 569 multi-family units annually. KMA projected total annual private non-residential demand of about 680,000 GSF through 2 Our specific projections of annual demand by type of land use are for 150,000 GSF o space, 389,000 GSF industrial space, and 143,000 GSF commercial space. About five a annually are also expected to be required for new automobile dealers and service stat: KMA also converted these inventory demand figures to acreage requirements using ave density assumptions. For single-family housing, KMA has assumed an average densi 2.84 units/acre based on the weighted average density of the RL and RLM lanc designations in the General Plan. This density assumption results in an average ar demand for 191 acres. For multi-family units, KMA has assumed an average density of units/acre based on the weighted average of the RM, RMH, and RH land use designai Multi-family housing would therefore require about 68 acres annually. SimiIarly, KMA has used an assumed typical Floor Area Ratio (FAR) to convert residential space demand to land area requirements. Based on discussions with City GI Management staff, KMA has used a constant FAR of 0.35 for non-residential land u! the context of this study. This density assumption translates to average annual dema follows: about 10 acres for office use, 26 acres for industrial use, and a total 14 acrc commercial uses. Private, non-residential uses would therefore require a total of ab0 acres per year. In total, KMA's projections indicate a need for 310 acres annually for all private uses, residential and non-resi d en t ial. DeveloDabIe Inventory/Land Area bv Tvpe For purposes of this study, KMA examined inventory and land use allocation data level of the City's four quadrants and 25 facility management planning zones. Th subareas have been defined by City staff for planning and growth management pur Note that Zone 5, which contains Palomar Airport and the office and industrial park! vicinity, overlays three quadrants at their mutual boundary at Palomar Airport Roa El Camino Real. Since it was not readily possible to segregate Zone 5 informatio three quadrants, KMA summarized remaining developable inventory of residential uni non-residential square footage for the City as a whole, the four quadrants exclusive of 3 8 1 I t 9 0 5, and Zone 5 alone. This information, presented in Table 1-2, is taken from the L Facilities Management Plans, the updated 1991 phasing projections, and discussions 1 City staff. As shown, 24,098 residential units and about 34.3 million non-residential sqi feet remain to be developed in Carlsbad. KMA has examined the City's assumed average density characteristics at buildou comparing buiIdout inventory with total designated acreage for each land use categor For residential uses, KMA divided total units at buildout (51,888 units) by City residential land area (11,948 net acres), for an average density of 4.34 units/acre. density figure applies to all residential units at buildout, that is, including,both exi (1991) and remaining developable units. For non-residential uses, KMA divided building area at buildout (48,079,697 GSF) by Citywide land area designated for pr non-residential land uses (4,361 net acres), for an average FAR of 0.25. Based on 1 density levels, remaining developable inventory (units/GSF) was converted to land (acres). As shown in the table, this approach indicates that an estimated 5,549 net acr residential land and 3,110 net acres of non-residential land remain for development. ComDarison of Land Use SuDplv and Demand As stated above, one of the objectives of this report was to determine whether the land allocations in the existing General Plan are appropriate or adequate relative to antici] market support for each use. However, complete data on remaining developable aci by specific land use type (e.g., RL, RLM, RM, etc.) were not available. The study ther cannot address, for example, whether adequate multi-family land will be available to projected demand. KMA instead formulated estimates at the aggregate level of residc and non-residential land area remaining for development. These figures were cornpa1 the aggregated land area requirements in these two categories. (See discussion below). absorption forecasts presented in this study assume that an adequate supply of land u available to meet projected market support for each subcategory. In the long term reasonable to assume that market demand factors will influence future land use PO including General Plan amendments, Master Plans, and rezonings. KMA's projected land area requirements by type of use can be summarized as follo Residential: KMA estimated annual demand for 542 single-family unii 569 multi-family units, resulting in a combined requirement of about units or 260 acres per year. Table 1-3 presents calculations of the bu period for remaining residential and non-residential uses in Carlsbac shown in the table, about 24,098 housing units remain to be develop Carlsbad. Based on KMA's projected absorption rate of 1,110 units pel residential buildout would occur in 2012. Non-Residential: KMA estimated annual demand for about 680,000 C private, non-residential space, or about 50 acres. As shown in Tab o . 0 0 4 - i T r 0 0 about 34.3 million GSF of non-residential building area remain tc developed, KMA has assumed that about 20% of remaining non-reside uses will constitute public or institutional uses. This assumption results in an estimated 27.4 million GSF of remaining Drivate, non-reside space. Based on KMA's non-residential absorption projection of 680,000 per year, nonresidential buildout could be expected to mur in 2030. In other words, these calculations demonstrate that residential demand is sufficiently SI that the City's available supply of residential land should be exhausted by 2012. Der for non-residential uses -- office, industrial, and commercial taken together -- will nl exhausted until 2030. At residential buildout in 2012, there will be about 15.9 million of non-residential development remaining, equal to about an 18-year supply of residential space. Table 1-4 demonstrates the likely impacts of the existing General Plan land use allocl on the City's future jobs-housing balance. Currently, the City contains 27,790 residc units and 13.8 million non-residential GSF, or a ratio of 496 non-residential GSI housing unit. In 2012, upon residential buildout, the City will have reached 51,888 ho units and 32.2 million non-residential GSF, or a ratio of 621 GSF/unit. At this 1 housing growth will essentially cease, with no further significant increase in popul, However, non-residential land use absorption would continue until buildout in 2030. A time, the City would contain an estimated 48.7 million non-residential GSF. This \ result in approximately 927 nonresidential GSF per dwelling unit. In the lower half of Table 1-4, KMA has translated the projected land use mix at timepoints into estimates of the number of jobs per housing unit. Currently, there are 1.18 jobs per housing unit in the City of Carlsbad. Based on KMA's absorption projec there would be about 1.31 jobs per housing unit at residential buildout in Subsequently, non-residential development and employment growth would continue tk ultimate buildout in 2030. At that time, KMA estimates that the City would contai jobs per housing unit. These ratios are presented to ilhstrate the significant change mix of residential and non-residential uses that will result from buildout of the e General Plan. It is important to note, however, that projections of market demand fo residential uses 40 years into the future are speculative at best. Moreover, KMA' residential demand analyses are based on assumptions about household and popr growth. Since Carlsbad would experience essentially no population growth after resic buildout, continued absorption of nonresidential land would require a substantial in 1 in the importation of labor force and retail consumers from other communities. It is important to recognize that Carlsbad already imports both work force and shoppers. The City has historically been extremely successful relative to its neight attracting a range of revenue-generating uses, boasting major resort hotels, North Cr premier concentration of industrial/office parks, and the only regional shopping cel coastal North County. For residential and non-residential buildout to occur simultanc 5 -" i 0 0 the City would have to significantly enhance its capture of office, industrial, and comme space. In our opinion, this is highly improbable; therefore, the City is likely to reta substantial reserve of non-residential land at the time of residential buildout. Identification of Alternatives The principal purposes of the land use economic analysis were twofold: (1) to forecast use absorption by type of use, and (2) to identify alternative land use allocations (other the existing General Plan) to be tested in the fiscal impact analysis. KMA initially recommended that the City consider an alternative land area allocation v results in simultaneous residential and non-residential buildout. Based on KMA's projc absorption rates, this would require a transfer of about 1,118 acres from non-residentil to residential use. Buildout would occur in 2017 with total inventories at buildout of million non-residential GSF and 56,727 residential units. This alternative was reviewed by City staff and discarded as impractical. The City's gr management plan imposes ceilings on residential buildout and total population. In add the majority of remaining non-residential acreage in Carlsbad is located in Zones 5 ai near Palomar Airport. Due to air traffic and existing land use patterns, this a1 considered unsuitable for residential development. City staff and Tischler & Associates have agreed to address two alternatives in the impact analysis. Both will utilize the land area allocations in the existing General Plai the rates and types of non-residential development will vary as described below. 0 Optimistic Scenario. Under this alternative, City officials are assumed tc an aggressive stance similar to past actions in attracting new non-resid development to Carlsbad. The City would capture both the regional ma a new auto mall, and non-residential absorption would achieve the ful projected in this report. Achievable Scenario. In the "Achievable Scenario," City officials are ass to take a passive posture toward non-residential development. Specif it is assumed that the City would experience a lower capture rate of non-residential uses such as a new regional mall, automobile dealership other retail developments. 0 KMA's estimates of absorption and build-out for the Achievable Scenario are summ; in Table 1-5. These estimates are based on a quadrant-level analysis of the impacts of capture rates for commercial uses. Under this scenario, it is assumed that average a non-residential absorption would be 620,000 GSF or 44 acres, as compared to 680,00( or 50 acres in the Optimistic Scenario. Total remaining non-residential inventory und 6 1 L r 0 0 Achievable Scenario would be 29.9 million GSF, as compared to 34.3 million GSF ii Optimistic Scenario. SURVEY OF GROWTH MANAGEMENT POLICIES KMA assessed the upside development potential in Carlsbad as a result of gr management restrictions in neighboring cities. The hypothesis discussed among City and the consultant team was that development restrictions in adjacent communities 1 increase demand for homes or commercial space in Carlsbad. This memorandum pre KMA’s analysis and findings regarding possible impacts of North County gi management policies. To test the validity of this hypothesis, KMA conducted a survey of five North County (Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Vista). The purpose of the surve to identify the principal growth management controls and potential curbs on develop in each community. As a starting point, KMA utilized an earlier survey conduct( SANDAG for its Regional Housing Needs Statement. This information was supplem through telephone interviews with planning staff and review of public policy docur The principal growth management provisions for each city are summarized in Table Four of the five North County cities surveyed have growth management policies in San Marcos is the only city surveyed which lacks growth management restrictions. G management policies in Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, and Vista are focused prii on residential, rather than commercial development. Restrictions on resid development include: (1) Density reductions or downzoning. (Alternatively, rezonings to ’ densities are restricted.) Caps on annual residential building permits. Facility/service threshold requirements prior to new developments. (2) (3) Carlsbad’s growth management program includes both (1) and (3), but not (2). There are no meaningful growth restrictions on non-residential uses in the cities sur with the exception of (3) above. Non-residential development in newly developing are also subject to facilities/infrastructure requirements. This is true of Carlsbad’s i management program as well. Based on the foregoing analysis, KMA concludes that the impact of existing 1 management provisions in North County on Carlsbad’s capture of new developn minimal. Where restrictions on residential development have been imposed, they gel 7 1 e 0 take similar forms. With the exception of San Marcos, the other cities have genc downzoned residentially designated lands and implemented facility and infrastru standards. Carlsbad’s policy also includes these provisions. In addition, Enci Escondido, Oceanside, and Vista maintain annual residential building caps. While Car does not have annual ceilings on new residential development, it can be argued thr costs of facilities and infrastructure required for new development necessarily ir numerical limits on new residential units. It is our view, therefore, that Carl: proportionate capture of new residential growth will not be significantly affected by ex growth management policies in North County. In our experience, housing market values are the single factor with the greatest infl on Carlsbad’s capture of regional housing demand (Le., its share of North County resid growth). High land costs, and associated high unit prices or rents, distinguish the Cai housing market from neighboring cities more than the development constraints impos growth regulations. In terms of non-residential land uses, KMA similarly concludes that North County g management policies are not likely to significantly influence the regional distribution c growth. The only meaningful controls on commercial development in North County a facilities/infrastructure requirements. Relatively similar provisions are in effect in Car Encinitas, Escondido, and Vista, indicating that Carlsbad contains no competitive advai over these cities. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROJECTION Section I1 of the Technical Appendix presents KMA’s demand projection for resic land. The methodology examines historic demographic trends and housing unit prod in the six North County cities and San Diego County as a whole. In particular, KM examined Carlsbad’s capture rate of the regional increase in population over the p years. Based on this information, KMA has formulated a housing unit demand proj for Carlsbad through 2010; Note that the projections of residential productionlabsorption focus primarily on private housing market activity. The analysi not attempt to project future construction of publicly subsidized housing units; the a] of development of such projects would presumably depend to a great extent on a var policy decisions at the local, state, and federal level. Analysis of these factors is cons1 to be beyond the scope of this study. KMA also examined the distribution of historic housing unit production by type (! family vs. multi-family) and tenure (renter- vs. owner-occupied). Based on historic t the split of projected unit demand was estimated for multi-family rental, multi-family fc (condominium/townhouse), and single-family units. In sum, the analysis indicates a7 annual demand through 2010 for 542 single-family homes and 569 multi-family unit 8 i 0 0 Table 11-1 presents average annual population growth in Carlsbad relative to San C County and the State of California. Carlsbad population increased by an average 2 persons per year over the period 1970 to 1990. From 1980 to 1990, the average an increase was 2,764 persons. Based on this historical growth, KMA anticipates Carlsb; continue growing at an average annual rate of about 2,600 people per year through 1 Note that KMA's population forecasts exceed SANDAG's Series 7 forecasts publ: elsewhere. SANDAG's projections use 1986 as the base year for projecting popul: employment, and land absorption through 2010. Because of the high growth rates ! have occurred in San Diego County and to a greater extent in many North County since 1986, SANDAG's projections have been substantially understated. For exam] number of the comparison North County cities have achieved 1990 populations in excc SANDAG's 1995 projections. As a result, KMA has made separate assumptions rega population and employment growth and land absorption as it is our judgement SANDAG's figures do not present an accurate reflection of North County's rapid grl Table 11-2 presents Carlsbad's historical trends in population, households, and hous size as compared to Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, Vista, and San I County. As may be noted, Carlsbad experienced the second fastest rate of popu growth over the period 1970 to 1990 and the third fastest growth rate over the period to 1990. Correspondingly, household growth in Carlsbad also ranked second and th these two time periods. Average household size has been declining in Carlsbad as it North County as a whole. Table 11-3 presents historical changes in the distribution of owner- vs. renter-occ housing for the North County cities and San Diego County. As may be noted, Carlsb; the lowest proportion of renter-occupied housing relative to the other cities and the C as a whole. In fact, the percentage of renter-occupied housing units in Carlsba decreased over time; currently about one-third of all housing in Carlsbad is renter-occ In contrast, the percentage of renter-occupied housing units in San Diego Coun remained relatively constant during 1970-1990 at about 44%. Table 11-4 presents the recent historical distribution of single-family vs. multi-family h unit production. The "percentage multi-family" is calculated as the number of multi- units permitted divided by total units permitted. Over the period 1980 to 1989, almo: . half (about 47%) of new housing units in the City of Carlsbad were multi-family un San Diego County as a whole, the share of new multi-family production was higher, at 57%. Table 11-5 presents KMA's estimate of future residential demand. Over the past 20 Carlsbad's share of the County's population has increased from 1.1% in 1970 to 1. 1980 and to 2.5% in 1990. In addition, the percentage of Carlsbad's population in 9 i c a households vs. group quarters has remained relatively constant. KMA’s population forec: for Carlsbad (115,081 in 2010; see Table 11-1) anticipate that the City’s population will gi from a 2.5% share of the County’s population in 1990 to over 3.0% by 2010. 7 assumption necessarily implies that Carlsbad’s proportional capture of regional populal growth will gradually increase. Although it can be argued that the relatively high price Carlsbad homes makes this unlikely, KMA hypothesizes that the City’s new inclusior housing requirement will improve the mix of affordable home production in Carlsbad in future, If the percentage of the population in households vs. group quarters is assume( remain constant at 98.54%, then household population can be expected to increase f 62,203 in 1990 to 113,398 in 2010. Based on this household population forecast an( assumed average household size (held constant at 2.42 persons), KMA projects net housing unit demand as follows: an average 1,149 units per year during 1991 to 1995; 1 units per year during 1996 to 2000; 1,128 units per year during 2001 to 2005; and 1,101 1 per year during 2006 to 2010. Overall, average annual residential demand during 1991-2 (inclusive) is projected to be 1,110 units. consideration a 5% pro forma vacancy. This assumption is not intended as an estimai actual current or future market vacancy. Table 11-6 presents the estimate of residential demand by housing type (single- vs. m family) and tenure (renter- vs. owner-occupied). Note that historically multi-family hoL has constituted about 50% of total residential unit production. Proportional demanc multi-family housing can be expected to increase over time. Total multi-family demai projected to increase from 563 units per year during 1991-1995 to 583 units per yez 2006-2010. Correspondingly, single-family housing demand as a proportion of total hoi demand can be expected to decline. Average annual demand for single-family hom projected to be 586 homes in 1991-1995, falling to about 517 homes per year in 2006-2 KMA also estimated the split of rental and for-sale housing unit demand. For the purl of this analysis, it is assumed that all renter-occupied units are multi-family ‘I Historically the proportion of renter-occupied units in Carlsbad has declined; it is estin as 33% in 1990. Our analysis assumes that an equivalent proportion of new units wi renter-occupied; that is, of an average annual demand for 1,149 units during 1991- KMA projects demand for 379 multi-family rental units (33% of the total) and 184 n family for-sale units (townhomes/condominiums), for a total 563 multi-family units ( of total demand). The balance of the projected housing demand would be for single4 homes. Similarly, over the 20-year period, KMA projects average annual demand foi multi-family rental units, 203 multi-family for-sale units, and 569 single-family homes The summary table in the Iower half of Table 11-6 translates housing unit demand to use absorption. KMA projects a need for 5,484 net acres of residential land thr buildout based on the standard density assumptions noted in the table. (This figure d slightly from the remaining residential net acreage figure of 5,549 acres shown in Tab1 This land area discrepancy is indicative of the differing density assumptions used ir analysis; in any case, the difference is small and both figures represent approximations Note that these figures also take 10 i- 0 0 this total, 3,959 acres would be required for single-family housing and 1,525 acres for mi family housing. Note that these residential unit absorption projections are largely based on histoi population trends and housing market activity. Inasmuch as the City recently enactec interim inclusionary housing program, future housing absorption trends may well differ f past experience. For example, affordable, Le., low-income, units should absorb more rag than the average unit. However, the subsidy requirements €or affordable units may r( in higher sale prices for market-rate units in the balance of the project. These units 1 in effect, experience slower absorption than anticipated. A more detailed analysis of effects of the City’s inclusionary policy on the housing market is beyond the scope of study. PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ABSORPTION BY OUADRANT KMA also estimated a distribution of residential unit absorption by quadrant. Reside growth is likely to occur earliest in those areas of the City where major facilities infrastructure are already in place. Conversely, those zones which consist primarily of land with no improvements in place should be the last to see residential buildout. estimate the distribution of housing unit absorption by quadrant, KMA looked at histo housing growth and the potential buildout for each quadrant. Historical housing production by quadrant was evaluated based on two data sources: Data on existing housing units by zone obtained from the January 1991 L Facilities Management Plan (LFMP) and discussions with City grl management staff, as shown in Table 1-1; and State Department of Finance housing inventory data compiled at the CE tract level by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG). information was available for January of each year from 1981 to 1990. ( that the Census tract corresponding to the southwest quadrant overlz portion of the northwest quadrant, Le., Zones 5 and 13. Because these z are predominantly non-residential, no adjustments were deemed necess Housing inventory data from these two sources were not entirely consistent. KMA then used the first source (the January I, 1991 LFMP update) for 1990, and the 1981 to annual chanpe represented by the second source (SANDAG/DOF). This informati1 presented in the upper half of Table 11-7. The second step in the analysis was to proportionately allocate future residential absorption based on the historical rate of housing production and buildout limitation each quadrant. As shown in Table 11-6, KMA is projecting citywide average annual hol unit demand of 1,110 units through 2010. As can be seen in Table 11-7, attached (1) (2) 11 i 0 0 southwest quadrant has absorbed an average 285 residential dwelling units per year ovei period 1981 to 1990. Based on historical absorption and the amount of vacant acrc available for development, we anticipate future absorption to average about 320 units year through 2010. At this level of absorption, residential buildout of the south quadrant would occur in 2011. The northwest quadrant has historically absorbed an average 288 units per year over period 1981 to 1990. Because this area has the least amount of remaining develop residential acreage, we anticipate a decreasing annual absorption rate over time ir northwest quadrant as land becomes scarce. Over the period 1990 to 2010, we would elc average annual absorption to approximate 180 units. The resulting buildout of northwest quadrant would occur in 2008. The northeast quadrant has absorbed an average 311 units per year over the period to 1990. Because of diminishing amounts of large-tract developable land, we anticipi reduction of average annual absorption to about 240 units per year through 2010. corresponding buildout would occur in 2011. , Historical absorption in the southeast quadrant has averaged 295 units per year over period 1981 to 1990. Because the southeast quadrant has the largest inventor undeveloped residential acreage, we anticipate increasing average annual absorptio occur as infrastructure is put into place. As such we have projected the average ann1 absorption to increase to 370 units over the period 1990 to 2010. The resulting buil would occur in 2013. OFFICE LAND USE PRO.TECTION The land use demand projection for office space is presented in Section 111 of the Tech Appendix. In projecting future demand for office space, KMA has examined office s inventory and absorption trends in Carlsbad and other North County cities. methodoiogy examines the historical relationship between population, employment (nu1 of jobs in Carlsbad), and office-using employment. Regional employment trends such a labor force participation rate, the civilian employment rate, the office sector employ1 rate, and office employment density were identified for this analysis. KMA then apl similar ratios to population forecasts for Carlsbad to calculate the increment in office SI supported by population growth in Carlsbad. In addition, the analysis assumes a 5% a forma vacancy factor and a 10% core factor (the difference between net and gross buil ' area). According to local real estate brokers, the Carlsbad market has absorbed significantly r office space than any other North County city in each of the last six years. (See Table I discussed below.) Carlsbad averaged net annual absorption of about 155,000 square (SF) during 1985-1990, or about 32% of the total for North County overall. These fig 12 t 0 e are indicative generally of Carlsbad’s status as a major office park center in coastal P County and specifically of the subregional dominance of office uses in the Palomar Ai area. RevionaI Employment Trends KMA utilized employment data (number of jobs) from the San Diego Associatic Governments for the following areas: Carlsbad, Encini tas, Escondido, Oceanside Marcos, Vista, and San Diego County. Table 111-1 illustrates employment trends for 1 areas derived from population and employment estimates for 1980 and 1988 (most r( year for which data were available). The table presents figures for population, the rai jobs to population, and the ratio of office jobs to total jobs for each area. For the pur] of this analysis, KMA looked at employment levels by SIC code and used industry star assumptions regarding percent of office-using employment. As demonstrated in the 1 the ratio of jobs to population has been increasing in most North County cities. In Carl for example, there were 0.46 jobs for every resident in 1980; by 1988, there were 0.51 for every resident. The only North County city to exhibit a higher proportion of jobs to residents was San Marcos, with about 0.64 jot every resident in 1988. In San Diego County as a whole, the ratio of jobs to populatior from 0.45 to 0.50 between 1980 and 1988. These data point to Carlsbad’s status as a r employment center in North County; most of the other cities have a lower ratio of jo population, indicating a greater role as bedroom communities. The relationship of office-using jobs relative to total jobs is presented in the columns o far right. The proportion of office jobs in Carlsbad has grown from 24.4% in 1980 to 3 in 1988. Office-using employment in the six North County cities increased from 24.9 total employment in 1980 to 25.2% in 1988. County-wide, 27.5% of total employ consisted of office jobs in 1988. Relative to North County and the County as a H Carlsbad can be considered to have a high proportion of office jobs, indicating a gr level of white collar employment. Office SDace Demand The next step in the analysis was to apply the ratios presented in Table 111-1 to foreca Carlsbad’s future population (see projections in Table 11-1). KMA assumes that the of jobs to population in Carlsbad will continue to increase over time. In Table 111-2 jobs-population ratio is shown as increasing from 51.41% in 1988 to 54.00% by buil Application of these estimates to the population projections yields estimates of f employment at selected timepoints. KMA assumed that office-using employment v increase from its present share of the total, about 32%, to 34% by buildout. The nu of jobs was then multiplied by the projected office sector employment rate, resulting i. projected number of office employees in Carlsbad. From the estimate of future c employment, a typical office employment density, or average amount of space per emplc was applied. For purposes of this analysis, an industry standard office density of 250 SI 13 1 0 0 employee was used. Lastly, from the estimate of total office space demand, KMA has subtracted the 1990 t year in order to estimate net new office space demand, Le., demand over current 1990 si requirements. To this estimate of office space demand, KMA has added a 5% pro fo vacancy and a 10% typical office blrilding core factor to estimate total gross office si demand. Note that consideration of a pro forma vacancy factor is not intended to imply projection of a specific level of actual future market vacancy. As can be seen, KMA estimates office demand to approximate an average annual 150 SF during 1991-2010, or a total demand of about 3.0 million SF through 2010. Per growth management staff, KMA has applied a Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of 0.35 to calcu the amount of land area required for office use through 2010. At this densit: development, about 9.8 acres would be absorbed per year, or a total of about 196 acre 2010. Table 111-3 presents a historical context to the office land use projection. As may be nc the City of Carlsbad absorbed an average of 155,000 SF of office space per year over period 1985 to 1990. As such, the projection of 150,000 SF per year is consistent with re historical office absorption. INDUSTRIAL LAND USE PROJECTION Section IV of the Technical Appendix presents the analysis of industrial space den through 2010. The methodology involved is similar to the office land use projection. As be seen in Table IV-1 (far right columns), the ratio of industrial jobs vs. total job Carlsbad has grown from 29.2% in 1980 to 31.5% in 1988. Conversely, the County’s I of industrial jobs to total jobs has declined from 22.3% in 1980 to 22.0% in 1988. In th cities as a whole, industrial employment as a percent of total declined from 25.7% in to 24.1% in 1988. These data reflect Carlsbad’s growing concentration of industrial/busi parks while manufacturing employment has become less important in other jurisdicti In fact, Carlsbad has absorbed more industrial space since 1986 than any other N County city. (See Table IV-3, discussed below.) During 1986-1990, the Carlsbad ma absorbed an average annual 393,000 SF of industrial space, or about 28% of total absori in the North County cities. These figures indicate the relative dominance of Carlsbad w North County as a location for flex industrial, R&D, and warehouse facilities, particu I in the Palomar Airport area. TabIe IV-2 utilizes these historic employment trends to project future industrial employn and, subsequently, industrial space demand. KMA has assumed that the ratio of indus jobs to total jobs in Carlsbad will continue to increase, i.e., from 31.5% in 1988 to 33 by 2005 and thereafter. This assumption is intended to reflect the large inventor available industrial acreage in Carlsbad relative to declining inventories in other parts o 14 t a e County. The industrial employment rate times estimated future total employment yield projected number of industrial jobs in Carlsbad. KMA then assumed an ave employment density of 750 SF of industrial space per employee, resulting in the reqt increase in industrial space. Taking into consideration a 5% pro forma vacancy, total demand for industrial space through 2010 is estimated to be 7,786,000 SF, or an ave annual demand of 389,000 SF. Under the assumption of an average FAR of 0.35, indui development would require an average of 25.5 acres per year. Lastly, Table IV-3 presents a historical context to the industrial land use projection. As be noted, the City of Carlsbad has absorbed an average of 393,000 SF of industrial I per year during 1986-1990. The industrial space demand projection is therefore consi with recent historical absorption. COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROJECTION Section V of the Technical Appendix presents the projection of land area demanc retail/commercial land uses. The approach to the commercial land use projection invc preparation of retail demand models that estimate future expenditure potential an( increment in supportable retail space by category of retail. JSMA's analysis considered I requirements for six types of retail/comrnercial businesses: 0 Comparison goods (department store-type merchandise, or DSTM), inch apparel, appliances, electronic, and specialty goods. This category includes 40% of furniture and home furnishings sales. Convenience sales, which include food, liquor, and drug items. 0 0 Eating and drinking establishments. o Home improvement goods, including lumber and building materials, hard plumbing and electrical supplies, paint, glass, and farm and garden sup In addition, 60% of furniture and home furnishings sales are included ii category . o Automobile dealers and supplies. 0 Service stations. The first step in the analysis was to identify current spending patterns for retail goo( Carlsbad residents in comparison to the other North County cities, San Diego County the State of California. Secondly, KMA assessed the relationships between spendin each retail category and residents' personal incomes. Estimates of future populatior income levels were then used to project future expenditure potential for each retail cate 15 k e 0 KMA then used assumptions about sales productivity (sales per square foot of retail sp to estimate support for new retail space. Supportable square footage of retail space land area requirements by type of retail/commercial use are summarized in Table Tables V-2 through V-8A detail the methodology used to arrive at these conclusions. As shown in Table V-I, the projections indicate total demand for new retail spac 2,855,000 SF through 2010, or an average annual 143,000 SF. These figures take account retail building square footage required to accommodate increased sales activi comparison goods, convenience goods, eating and drinking, and home improvement it( Based on an assumed FAR of 0.35, these uses would require an average of 9.4 acres year, or a total 187.3 acres, through 2010. In addition, KMA has separately proje support for new automobile dealerships and service stations. These uses are projecte dealerships and service stations would require about 90.7 acres total through 2010. In KMA projects total 1991-2010 commercial land use absorption of 277.9 acres, or an ave of 13.9 acres annually. Retail Sales Trends Table V-2 presents historic and projected personal income trends for Carlsbad, N County, San Diego County, and the State. As can be seen, incomes in Carlsbad significantly higher than these other areas. Moreover, the rate of growth in income been higher in Carlsbad than these other areas. Tables V-3 through V-8 present total sales for each of the six retail categories in sele years during 1980-1989 for Carlsbad, the North County cities, San Diego County, anc State. The following conclusions can be drawn from these tables: require about 3.6 acres and 0.9 acres per year, respectively. Taken together, o Between 14% and 16% of per capita income is typically spent on compai goods in these areas. About 10% to 12% of per capita income is spent on convenience goods Between 5% and 6% of per capita income is spent in eating and drin establishments. About 6% to 7% of per capita income is spent on home improvement it1 About 10% of per capita income is spent on automotive sales in the Co and the State. In Carlsbad, the ratio of automotive sales to per capita inc is much higher, about 28% in 1989, indicating that Carlsbad captur, significant share of automotive expenditures from neighboring cities. Between 3% and 4% of per capita income is spent in service stations. 0 o o 0 o 16 k e a It is worth noting that retail spending as a percentage of per capita income has decl since 1980 for almost all retail categories. For example, in 1980, about 13% of per ci income in the areas examined was spent on convenience goods; by 1989, this ratio declined to about 11%. KMA attributes these declines to rising incomes and to the grc allocation of personal income to housing expenditures. These trends have 1 incorporated into the projection of future retail expenditures by category. Retail ExDenditure Potential In Tables V-3A through V-84 KMA has considered (1) population and (2) income forec for the City of Carisbad in conjunction with (3) anticipated future expenditures by r category as a function of per capita income. These three factors yield the total t potential for each retail category. For example, as shown in Table V-3A, "Population" t "Per Capita Income" times "Comparison Goods as % of Per Capita Income" equals "1 Comparison Goods Sales Potential." KMA estimated per capita sales potential base historic expenditures for the State, County, and City, as shown in Table V-3. As a next I KMA subtracted 1989 sales potential, as an estimate of the current (base year) sales 1t to yield the net sales potential, Le., the increase over current levels. "Assumed I Productivity" reflects typical industry standards or regional expectations of sales product for each retail category. The sales productivity has been inflated at 4% per year to re anticipated inflation. Dividing net sales potential by assumed sales productivity y "Demand for Retail Space." To this result, KMA added a 5% pro forma vacancy, resu in total demand for new retail space over current levels. LIMITING CONDITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS The following limiting conditions and assumptions apply to the analysis undertaken in study. (1) The analysis contained in this report is based, in part, on data from secon sources such as the Sari Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); the CE for Continuing Study of the California Economy; the California Departmen Finance and Economic Development and the Board of Equalization; U, Decisions Systems, Inc.; and the Greater Sari Diego Chamber of Commerce. I& KMA believes that these sources are accurate, KMA cannot guarantee their accui The analysis assumes that neither the local nor national economy will experien major recession. If an unforeseen change occurs in the economy, the conclus contained herein may no longer be valid. The findings are based on economic rather than political considerations. There: they should not be construed as representation or opinion that government appro for development can be secured. . (2) (3) 17 I 0 0 (4) Market support is not equivalent to financial feasibility; apart from whether the] a demand for various retail uses, other factors are of crucial importanct determining feasibility. The analysis, opinions, recommendations and conclusions of this report repre KMA's informed judgment based on market and economic conditions as of the 1 of this report. Due to the volatility of market conditions and complex dynai influencing the economic situations and conditions of the building and developr industry, conclusions and recommended actions contained within this report sh not be relied upon as sole input for final policy decisions regarding current future development and planning. (5) /- 1 18 r‘ 0 0 KEYSEEt MARSTON ASSOCIATES, LNC. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) has one of the largest real estate advisoq practices on the West Coast, with experience in all types of commercial and residentia real estate. Founded in 1973, the fm has served over 500 clients on more than 2,00( projects. The firm’s private sector clients include financial institutions, life insurance companies, major corporations, law firms, land owners, and developers. Representative public sector clients include nearly every major municipality in California, as well as citie: throughout the west, the Ports of Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles and Oakland, county anc special districts, as well as public and private colleges and universities. KMA provides services through its three offices in California: San Francisco, Lo: Angeles, and San Diego. Services include: m Market Analysis a Financial Feasibility a 8 Strategic Real Estate Planning and Positioning Ground Lease and Joint Venture Structuring, Particularly in PublidPrivate Transactions Development Impact Analysis, Including Housing Impacts 8 m Expert Witness Testimony KMA’s ten principals are frequent lecturers in professional educational programs sponsored by the Urban Land Institute, International Council of Shopping Centers, League of Cities, California Community Redevelopment Association, and other similar organizations. 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TABLE VI-1 SURVEY OF GROWTH MANAGEMENT POLICIES NORTH COUNTY CITIES MARCH 1991 ENCINITAS The City’s General Plan, adopted March 29, 1989, includes an annual residential builc limitatio :: along with growth management policies and guidelines. The building Iimitai is based on the unbuilt development potential of the City at mid-range density dividec the remaining years of the 25-year build-out period (January 1989 - January 2014). ‘ limit includes a number of permits that are set aside for low- and moderate-income u and units for senior citizens, Unallocated units from any year are added back to the t remaining permits before the next year’s annual allocation is calculated. Initially, growth management policies gave preference to proposed housing developmc that met or exceeded General Plan design criteria. However, this aspect of the gro management has been eliminated. SpecificaIly, Encinitas’ growth management policies include: 0 Annual proportional allocation of residential building permits based or total number of dwelling units in the City at build-out. The allocatic expected to result in an average of 200 units being permitted each yea about 1,000 units over the next five years. Low- and very low-income units are exempt from the annual pe limitations. New developments must pay the cost of public facilities and services nece! to serve those developments before permits are issued. o 0 There are no caps on non-residential development. However, infrastructure must t . place before permits are issued. Contact: Craig Jones Title: Senior Planner Phone: 944-5050 L a e TABLE VI-1 GROWTH MANAGEMENT SURVEY PAGE 2 ESCONDIDO In August 1988, the City Council adopted an Interim Development Ordinance cut residential building permits by 84% to 430 units per year. Additional growth managen policies include the following: o 0 Residential limitations, restricting rezoning to next higher level of densi Four-year restriction on requests for second density increase and on arnenc pre-zoned annexed land approved after effective date of ordinance (8/1/l Prohibition against incompatible zoning; and 0 0 Open space requirements. ' Furthermore, the General Plan calls for managed growth by: 0 Allowing new development to occur only when facilities and services plan! adopted for the area in which the development is proposed; 0 Encourages in-fill development; o Preservation and enhancement of existing neighborhoods by lim conversions of residential neighborhoods to non-residential uses; Controls on density increases in existing neighborhoods; Creation of a viable urban downtown by encouraging pedestrian-oriented including offices, restaurants, and specialty retail shops; and Preservation of natural and scenic resources by maintaining an open s environment around the perimeter of the City to serve as a buffer surrounding urbanizing areas. 0 0 0 L e e TABLE VI-1 GROWTH MANAGEMENT SURVEY PAGE 3 Contact: Jon Brindle Title: Assistant Planning Director Phone: 74 1-467 1 OCEANSTDE In April 1987, voters approved Proposition A, which limits building permits for small subdivision projects to 800 per year. The 800-unit cap represents a 77% reduction fi 1986 and 1987 permit levels. In addition, growth management in Oceanside has incorporated the following policies Residential density reductions, decreasing projected build-out population f 350,000 to the range of 173,000-225,000; and Establishment of an allocation process based on criteria such as infrastruct design, etc. If fewer permits are issued in a given year, the balance is car forward to the following year. 0 o Litigation for damages in the amount of approximately $100 million has been filed by Oro Hills and the Building Industry Association to overturn this ordinance. The courl already concluded that the 800 unit building cap has had an impact on the affordabili homes in the City. A final ruling on the validity of Proposition A may come as ear April 30, 1991. Contact: Michael Blessing Title: P1 anning Direct or Phone: 966-4770 SAN MARCOS A proposed moratorium on multi-family development was defeated in 1988. Currently t are no commercial or residential growth management restrictions in place. Contact: Mike Polland Title: Director, Community Development Phone: 591-7777 I) e - ’, TABLE VI-1 GROWTH MANAGEMENT SURVEY PAGE 4 VISTA In April 1987, voters approved Proposition A, the City Council- sponsored initiative limiti residential permits to 500 per year. The 500-unit cap represents a 75% reduction frc permit levels of 1986 and 1987. In addition, no residential development is allowed withc adequate facilities/services in place. Vista’s growth management has specific revi guidelines in which approval is needed for permits to be issued. The ordinance is in eff until December 1999. There are no commercial growth management restrictions. Contact: David Shaw Title: Planning Technician Phone: 726-1340 Source: Keyser Marston Associates Inc. San Diego Association of Governments March 1991