HomeMy WebLinkAbout1992-04-14; City Council; 11643; GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 1991 YEAR-END MONITORING REPORTP
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AB#- I& GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 1991 DEPT.
MTG.q-/Y-C/L YEAR-END MONITORING REPORT CITY P
DEPT.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
CITY n GM
It is recommended that the City Council receive the Monitoring Report and refe
maximum residential buildout number for the City.
the recommendation from the Citizens Committee to Study Growth regar
ITEM EXPLANATION
The Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 2I.9Om130(d) requires the preparatic
annual monitoring report on the Growth Management Program, including an
of development activity, an adequacy analysis of facilities and improvem
analysis of financing for public facilities, recommendations for modifications to
and other information as may be deemed necessary by the City Council.
The first Comprehensive Monitoring Report was approved by the City Council c
26, 1991. That report covered the period of time from the initiation of the
Management Program through the end of 1990. An update was presented to
Council on November 5, 1991, covering the first half of calendar year 191
present report covers the entire 1991 calendar year. Its major findings are as
1. Building Permits for 202 new dwelling units and 1.2 million s
nonresidential space were issued in 1991. Total units issued
quadrant since November 4, 1986, continue to comply with the
dwelling unit limitations of Proposition E.
Funding for several major facilities of Citywide importance t
guaranteed by formation of Community Facilities District No. 1. (
financing plan (Zone 7) was approved in 1991.
Two Local Facilities Management Plans were adopted in 1991,
and Zone 21. The LFMP for Zone 21 was the first such plan tc
an integral financing plan. Of the 25 zones, 19 now have adop
plans.
2.
3.
4. All facilities are either currently meeting their adopted perf
standard or there is a financial guarantee in place and an actio1
provide the needed improvements. The report includes the ann1
monitoring study by JHK and Associates.
The report recommends changing the persons per dwelling ur
used to calculate population based on the 1990 census, a!
described in the report.
5.
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Page Two of Agenda Bill No. /I; b ’lf 3 -w
This report was reviewed by the Citizens Committee to Study Growth on Feb
1992, and approved subject to some minor changes. These changes hai
incorporated into the attached document. In addition, the Committee recom
that the City Council consider formally adopting 54,599 as the maximum nu
dwelling units in the City at buildout. As noted in the Monitoring Report, the
54,599 is not a part of Proposition E. Rather, it is presented in the Citywide I
and Improvements Plan as the number of existing dwelling units in 1986 plus tt
units allowed by Proposition E. It is recommended that this item be referred
staff for a report and recommendation on how it should be implemented and
there are any issues requiring further study.
The Monitoring Report represents the annual report of the Citizens Committee
Growth, The Committee will meet again in July 1992 to review the next mc
update. If issues arise which require the Committee’s attention, additional r
may be called by the Chairman.
Staff and the members of the Citizens Committe to Study Growth are plt
present this report which once again confirms that Carlsbad’s Growth Man
Program continues to meet its stated objective of assuring adequate public
concurrent with need.
EXHIBITS
1. Growth Management Program 1991 Year-End Monitoring Report.
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March 5, 1992
The Honorable Mayor Claude A. "Bud1' Lewis
and Members of the City Council
1200 Carlsbad Village Drive
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Attached is the 1991 Year-End Growth Management Monitoring Report. The City Counc
has previously received a mid-year report which covered the period from January 1 throug
June 30,1991. The present report provides data and conclusions for the 1991 calender ye:
as a whole.
The report was prepared by Growth Management staff and approved by the Citizei
Committee to Study Growth on February 3, 1992. Development activity is described, ar
an adequacy analysis of each of the eleven public facilities is provided.
One of the most significant changes included in this year's monitoring report is a change j
the way population projections are made. Until now, population projections have assume
2.471 persons per dwelling unit. Based on the 1990 federal census, it is recommended :
part of this report that we begin to use 2.3178 persons per dwelling unit. This change w
produce much more accurate population figures both for the present and for projecting tl
future population of the City.
The Monitoring Report certifies that compliance is being maintained with the ultima
dwelling unit caps contained in Proposition E. It further projects, by means of tl.
information contained in the Zone Plans, that compliance will be maintained throug
buildout of the City. In reviewing this information, the Citizens Committee to Study Growl
recommends that the City Council take action to formally adopt 54,599 as the maximu
number of dwelling units at buildout.
With regard to Circulation, the report includes the Executive Summary of the annual traff
monitoring program. This is the third traffic monitoring study prepared for the City by JH
and Associates. It includes some new findings which are discussed in the text.
Affordable Housing continues to be an important issue to the City. Because the Grow
Management Program places an ultimate limit on the number of dwelling units that can 1
granting density bonuses to affordable housing projects as required by state law.
constructed, it has been necessary to demonstrate that the City is not precluded fro
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Page 2
This report constitutes the Annual Report of the Citizens Committee to Study Growth fc
calendar year 1991. The Citizens Committee to Study Growth and staff hope that the 19s
Year-End Monitoring Report provides useful information to the City Council, staff of othc
departments, boards and commissions, and the citizens of Carlsbad.
Sincerely,
Tom Erwin, Chairman
Citizens Committee to Study Growth
a e e
CITY OF CARLSBAD
Growth Management Program
1991 Year-End Monitoring Report
t
Carlsbad City Council
Claude A. Lewis, Mayor
Ann J. Kulchin, Mayor Pro Tem
Eric Larson
Julie Nygaard
Margaret Stanton
Citizens Committee to Studv Growth
Tom Erwin, Chairperson
Dan Hammer, Vice Chairperson
Matt Hall
Homer Hupf
James McCormick
Clarence Schlehuber
Darryl Tell
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Introduction
This report is directed to the Carlsbad City Council, the City's various appoint<
boards and commissions, staff, and the citizens of Carlsbad. Its purpose is to report on tl.
functioning of the Growth Management Program in Carlsbad in 1991 and to verify that tl:
program is continuing to accomplish its stated objectives. These objectives are primari
to ensure adequate public facilities concurrent with growth and secondly to assu
compliance with the ultimate dwelling unit limitation which was made part of the Grow
Management Plan when approved by the voters as Proposition E.
Unlike previous monitoring reports, this report assumes that the reader is famili
with the general concepts of the Growth Management Program in Carlsbad. Readers wl
are unfamiliar with the Growth Management Program may wish to consult the Citywic
Facilities and Improvements PZan or previous monitoring reports for backgroul
information.
Executive Summary
In calendar year 1991 the City of Carlsbad continued to implement its Grow
Management Program in a variety of ways. Each of the 11 public facilities that a.
addressed in the program was monitored for compliance with its adopted performam
standard. This monitoring has revealed that all facilities are currently either (1) fully
compliance with the performance standard or (2) there is a financial guarantee and actic
plan to bring the facility into compliance. The 11 facilities are discussed individual
beginning on page 19.
A major Community Facilities District (CFD No. 1) was formed in 1991 to financ
a number of facilities of Citywide benefit. CFD No. 1 is a major component of the financi
guarantees for several facilities, including the South Carlsbad Library, a centr
maintenance and warehouse facility, and three freeway interchanges.
discussed further on page 4. In addition, the Zone 7 Financing Plan was approved by tl.
City Council in 1991. This was the first Zone Financing Plan to be completed, as discussf
on page 3.
CFD No. 1
1
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Two Local Facility Management Plans were adopted on 1991. These were the pla
for Zone 18 (Carrillo Ranch) and Zone 21 (East Poinsettia Residential), as discussed
page 1. A total of 19 out of 25 Zone plans has now been adopted.
Since 1988, units are considered constructed at the time building permits are issuc
During 1991, building permits for 202 new dwelling units were issued, bringing t
Citywide total to 27,991. As of December 31, 1991, the Citywide population is 64,8:
based on 2.3178 persons per dwelling unit. A total of 1,200,005 sq. ft. of non-residenti
development was constructed in 1991. For further detail regarding development activi
and population, please refer to the discussion beginning on page 5.
For any questions regarding Growth Management that are not answered by tl
report, please contact Don Rideout in the Growth Management Program at 438-11(
extension 42 12.
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Local Facilities Management Plans
The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan divided the City into 25 Local Facilitir
Management Zones. Each of these is required to have an adopted Local Faditit
Management Plan (also known as Zone Plan) prior to any development in the zone. (
the twenty-five Local Facilities Management Zones, nineteen have adopted Zone Plans, i
shown below and graphically in Exhibit I.
Adopted Zone Plans in Chronolo&d Order
Zone Date of Adoption Ci Council Resolution Numb
Zone 3 May 19, 1987 Reso. No. 9084
Zone 2 June 16, 1987 Reso. No. 9123
Zone 4 June 16, 1987 Reso. No. 9122
Zone 5 August 4, 1987 Reso. No. 9188
Zone 1 September 1, 1987 Reso. No. 9221
Zone 6 November 10, 1987 Reso. No. 9291
Zone 19 Aviara December 22,1987 Reso. No. 9322
Zone 11 La Costa Southeast February 23,1988 Reso. No. 88-46
Zone 12 La Costa Southwest Reso. No. 90-264
Zone 20 South College September 6, 1988 Reso. No. 88-322
Zone22 Lusk December 13, 1988 Reso. No. 88-428
Zone 24 Evans Point December 20,1988 Reso. No. 88-437
Zone 8 Kelly Ranch February 7, 1989 Reso. No. 89-33
Zone 9 Batiquitos July 11, 1989 Reso. No. 89-232
Zone 7 Calavera Hills December 5, 1989 Reso. No. 89-424
Zone 14 Robertson Ranch February 6,1990 Reso. No. 90-24
Zone 15 Sunny Creek April 10, 1990 Reso. No. 90-101
Zone 18 Carrillo Ranch March 5, 1991 Reso, No. 91-76
Zone 21 East Poinsettia September 17, 1991 Reso. No. 91-307
Amended August 21, 1990
As indicated above, two Zone Plans were adopted during 1991. These were the
plans for Zone 18 (CaWillo Ranch) and Zone 21 (East Poinsettia Residential). In addition,
there was one minor Zone Plan amendment. The Zone 24 plan was amended to reflect the
1
IlrRrLIUI.1 I
SThS OF ZONE PLhS
W
CITY OF OCEANSIDE
CITY OF VISTA
BEING REVISED
0 ADOPTED PLANS
UNDER TECHNICAL @ REVIEW B INITIAL PLANNING 7
cur 0
2
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Eagle Canyon approved project. A Specific Plan is being prepared for Zone 20, and up01
approval of the Specific Plan it will be necessary to amend the Zone Plan for consistencj
The plans for Zone 13 and Zone 16 are in Technical Review and are expected to b
ready for adoption in the early part of 1992. After adoption of Zone 13 and Zone 16, onl
four zones will remain without adopted plans. These are zones 10,17,23 and 25. At th
time of writing of this report, none of these zones has a draft plan under review by th
City. It is anticipated that the property owners in these zones will begin the process c
preparing zone plans when they are ready to begin planning development of their propeq
In the meantime, staff will utilize estimates of the development potential of these zones i
order to project compliance with the ultimate dwelling unit limitation and for projectin
facility needs on a quadrant-wide or citywide basis.
Financing Plans
Section 21.90.110 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code states the required contents (
a Local Facilities Management Plan. Included in this is the requirement for a financin
plan which must indicate how guaranteed funding will be provided for each public facilil
improvement that is needed to serve new development in the zone. A number of zor
plans have been adopted without a complete financing plan. These plans have bee
conditioned to prepare and submit a subsequent financing plan which must be approve
by the City prior to any final map, grading permit or building permit within the zone. TI
zones that were conditioned in this way are Zones 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15, 18, 20, 22, an
24.
In August of 1991, the City Council adopted the financing plan for Zone 7. This
the first, and so far the only, financing plan adopted from among the zones that we
conditioned in that manner. Draft financing plans have been submitted and are current
under staff review for Zones 11, 12, 20, and 22.
The most recently adopted zone plan, Zone 21, was written to include a comple
financing plan within it, and therefore this zone has no requirement for a subseque
financing plan. It is intended that all of the remaining zone plans will be written in tI
3
-
ZONE STATUS AND COMMENTS
1-6 Finance Plan not required for these infill zones. Facilities guaranteed
by City's capital improvement budget through payment of fees.
Financing Plan adopted September 3, 1991.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
Combined Financing Plan for Zones 11 and 12 currently in staff
review.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
Financing Plan not required. All facilities requirements satisfied.
Financing Plan currently in staff review.
Financing Plan included in adopted Zone Plan.
Financing Plan currently in staff review.
Financing Plan not yet submitted to City.
7
8
9
11/12
14
15
18
19
20
21
22
24
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1
at the time of formation of the district. Other properties will be required to annex to thc
district in the future. Specifically, properties expected to annex in the future include lanc
in Zones 10, 13, 16, 17, 18, 21, 23, and 25. It is intended that these properties anne:
with approval of the first discretionary action on the property, which would typically bc
tentative map. As of the writing of this report, no annexations to the district haw
occurred. Zones 1, 2, 3,4, and 6 are purely ;nf;ll zones and will never be included in CFC
No. 1.
Residential Development Activity During 1991
In calendar year 1991, building permits for 202 new dwelling units were issued.
Exhibit 2 provides a breakdown by month and by zone. As shown in the exhibit, all
residential development in 1991 occurred in only four zones. For comparison purposes,
Exhibit 3 shows residential building permits issued each year from 1983 through 1991.
As indicated in the Mid-Year Monitoring report, the rate of residential development
since the adoption of the Growth Management Program in 1986 has been significantly
below imtial projections. TKs rate is expected to remain low for the near future due to
various economic factors. It is anticipated that these economic factors will change to
become more favorable towards development at some point in the future. In that case, the
rate of development activity would be expected to increase over what has been observed
since 1986.
a +e
Population
The performance standards for City Administrative Facilities, Library, and Parks are
stated in terms of population. The federal census, while not perfect, is still the most
accurate statement of population available. The census is taken every ten years, at the
beginning of each decade (1980, 1990,2000, etc.). In between the federal census, the
State of California Department of Finance (DOF) makes annual population estimates based
on development activity that has occurred during the prior year,
Growth Management was adopted in 1986, and the most recent federal census
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Total Dwelling Units
Persons per Dwelling Unit
Population
U. S. Census Growth Mgmt.
27,235 27,244
2.3178 2.471
63,126 67,320
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27,789. As indicated in the discussion of development activity, building permits for 20
new dwelling units were issued in 1991. Since construction is considered completed at th
time building permits are issued for growth management purposes, the new total numbe
of dwelling units in Carlsbad as of January 1, 1992, is 27,991. The citywide populatio
estimate used for analyzing the adequacy of City Administrative Facilities and Library 1
therefore 64,878. It should be noted that the above population estimate is for facilit
planning purposes only. The federal census will be conducted again in the year 2000. Th
State Department of Finance (DOF) will provide its own estimates for each year i
between, based on development activity during the preceding year. The number of persor
per dwelling unit can be adjusted in the future if necessary as part of the monitorin
process.
Non-Residential Development
During 1991, building permits were issued for 1,200,005 square feet of non
residential construction, for a total of 15,049,353 sq. ft. citywide. A comprehensive listin,
of non-residential development occurring in 1991 is provided as Exhibit 5. For comparisoi
purposes, Exhibit 6 shows the amount of non-residential development that has occurre(
annually since 1987.
10
Northwest Quadrant
57
Southwest Quadrant
57
Northeast Quadrant
1
Southeast Quadrant
87
Northwest Quadrant
Approved 370
Total 1,677
Prop. E Limit 5,844
Southwest Quadrant
Constructed 1,307
Remaining 4,167
Constructed 845
Approved 2,340
Total 3,185
Prop. E Limit 10,667
Remaining 7,482
Northeast Quadrant
Constructed 495
Approved 1,323
Total 1,818
Prop. E Limit 6,166
Southeast Quadrant
Remaining 4,348
Constructed 1,833
Approved 2,658
Total 4,491
Prop E. Limit 10,801
Remaining 6,310
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November 4, 1986, is well below the caps specified in Proposition E. Furthermore, th
information contained in the adopted zone plans makes it possible to show that th
Proposition E limits will never be exceeded if the Growth Management ordinance continue
to be adhered to through buildout of the City. Exhibit 8 provides this analysis for eac
quadrant of the City. The following discussion reviews the methodology used to arrive a
this conclusion.
Buildout Analysis
As part of the standard information included in each zone plan, there is a buildou
analysis which gives a projection of the maximum number of dwelling units and squar
footage of non-residential development that can be constructed in the zone, based o
Growth Management rules. The following steps and assumptions are used in this analysk
1. For purposes of calculating the residential density potential of land in the zone, a
constrained lands are subtracted from the gross acreage. Constrained lands includ
slopes over 40%, major powerline easements, the alignment for future Circulatio
Element roads, railroad right-of-way, riparian areas, beaches, wetlands, floodplain:
and permanent bodies of water. In addition, slopes of 25% to 40% are given ha.
credit for density calculations.
From the resulting net acreage, land required to be dedicated for schools, parks, an1
other public facilities is deducted. The remainder is the developable acreage withi
the zone.
3. The density control points for each General Plan designation are applied to th
developable acreage. The density control points are as follows:
2.
RL (Residential - Low Density)
RLM (Residential - Low to Medium Density)
RM (Residential - Medium Density)
RMH (Residential - Medium to High Density)
RH (Residential - High Density)
1.0 dwelling unit per acre
3.2 dwelling units per acre
6.0 dwelling units per acre
11.5 dwelling units per acre
19.0 dwelling units per acre
4. The sum of dwelling units for all General Plan designations in the zone is the
15
Future
Units Prop. E
Quadrant Zone (After 11/4/86) Cap Difference
1 3,256 Nw 3 20
8 1,224
24 358
TOTAL 4,858 5,844 986
2 585
7 1,232
NE 14 1,120
15 2,488
25 350 *
TOTAL 5,775 6,166 39 1
4 617
6(SW 192
9 526 sw 19 3,270
20 2,463
21 770
22 598
23 600 *
TOTAL 9,036 10,667 1,631
6(SE) 2,718
10 1,318 *
11 3,015
SE 12 1,145
17 499 *
18 2,090
TOTAL 10,785 10,801 16
CITYWIDE
TOTALS 30,454 33,478 3,024
0 0
theoretical maximum number of units that can be constructed in the zone. Tli
number is not a cap or limit and does not have the same significance as the quadrar
caps contained in the Growth Management Ordinance and Proposition E. The buildoi
for a zone may change for a number of reasons, including rezoning of land, addition:
environmental analysis that may increase or decrease the area of constrained land, th
granting of density bonuses for affordable housing projects as required by state lav
or a variety of other reasons. Changes in the buildout for a zone are permitted as lon
as it is assured that the quadrant cap will not be exceeded.
As shown in Exhibit 8, the buildout analysis for each zone demonstrates that if th
zones develop as projected by the Zone Plans, the quadrant caps will never be exceedec
Dwelling Unit Bank for Affordable Housing
The question of affordable housing continues to be an important one for Grow
Management and the City as a whole. The 1991 Mid-year Monitoring Report indicate
that staff has been working on a Dwelling Unit Bank concept which will enable the Cit
to grant necessary density increases for affordable housing projects while also assuring tlx
the Proposition E caps are not exceeded.
Although the exact number of units in the Bank has not yet been determined, staff ha
identified where and how these "excess" units will be generated. Actually, there will b
four separate Banks, one for each quadrant, because the Proposition E dwelling unit limil
are applied to each quadrant. For each Bank there will be two sources of units:
1. Project Related. These units result from approval and construction of projects at beloi
the allowable density under Growth Management. The majority of projects approve
since the adoption of the Growth Management Program in 1986 have resulted i
densities below the maximum allowable density. The cumulative total of these densit
reductions is available for density increases elsewhere in the same quadrant.
Revised Pro-iections. In addition to the above, there will be excess units as a result (
more refined projections of the development potential of land in various portions (
2.
17
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the City, as described in the buildout analysis methodology above. When the estimate
for Proposition E were first developed in 1986, the information available o
constrained lands and developable acreage was on a gross scale. These estimate
tended to slightly overestimate the amount of developable land. As the Zone Plar
have been completed, they have provided significantly more detailed and accurat
information on constrained lands and developable acreage. As previously noted
Exhibit 8 shows the current buildout projections for each zone. If each zone reache
the buildout projection given in its Zone Plan, the total buildout for the City woulc
still be below what Proposition E would have allowed.
The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan gave a projection of the total number o
dwelling units expected at buildout of the City. As shown on Exhibit 9, this projection wa
54,599 dwelling units. Although this projection was not part of the Proposition E limits
it has been widely regarded as the official buildout figure for the City. Therefore, staf
recommends that use of units for density increases from this second source be limited tc
that number which would not exceed a maximum of 54,599 dwelling units at buildout ol
the City as a whole.
Additional work is needed to determine precisely the number of units that is availabk
at this time from both sources. Staff will return to the Citizens Committee to Stud]
Growth and the City Council with an accounting of these numbers when the research i!
completed.
18
Land Use Net Acres Control D.U.s at Population Population
(1) Yield Buildout (2) (3)
RL 1,364 1 .o 1,364 3,371 3,162
RLM 6,895 3.2 22,065 54,522 51,143
RM 2,376 6.0 14,252 35,218 33,034
RMH 1,081 11.5 12,430 30,713 28,810
RH (& RVH) 233 19.0 4,488 11,090 10,403 I Total I 11,949 54,599 134,914 126,552
I
Population
Demand
Supply
Adequacy
64,878
97,317 sq. ft.
125,284 sq. ft.
27,967 sq. ft.
F- 1
Population 64,878
Demand 51,903 sq. ft.
Supply 88,600 sq. ft.
Adequacy 36,697 sq. ft.
units
Population
Demand
L Supply
Adequacy
10,588
24,541
73.63 acres
82.08 acres
8.45 acres
Units
Population
Demand
Supply
Adequacy
4,112
9,531
28S9 acres
43.30 acres
14.71 acres
f .en"'B'' -I" PARKS & RECREATION EL -MENT
CITY OF CARLSBAD GENERAL PLAN
9 PI0 PIC0 1 MAXTON BROWN
2 MAGEEPARK 10 OAK 11 HOLIDAY PA1 3 HARDING CENTER 4 ROTARY 5 PINE SENIOR CENTER 12 TENNlSCL 6 PIE SCHOOL 13 SWIM COI LAKE 16 CHASE FIELD 14 MAGNOLIA I 7 JEFFERSON ELEM. SCHOOL SCHOOL 15 VALLEY JR.
CARLSBAD
CALAVERA
8 BUEMA VISTA scnooi ELEM SCHOOL
.SAFETY CENTER BALL FIELD
CARRUO AQUSlTlON * CARRILLO RANCH ALGA NORTE
I
LEGEND * COMMNTYMRK * ~CoMMUNlTYp#RK
0 SPECIALUSEAREA
0 ~sPEclALusEARE4
A SPECIAL RESOURCE AREA
and should be conadored for reference only.
4 NORTH NOTE: Future park 81108 and fac~litier my rwe adwtmentS
23
units
Population
Demand
Supply
Adequacy
4,336
10,050
30.15 acres
57.00 acres
26.85 acres
units
Population
Demand
Supply
Adequacy
8,955
20,756
62.27 acres
81.34 acres
19.07 acres
Northwest Quadrant
1,215 units
Southwest Quadrant
3,861 units
Northeast Quadrant
2,115 units
Southeast Quadrant
2,742 units
0 0
Summary of the JHK study is attached as Appendix A.
summarizes the key points of the study.
The following discussio
The two previous JHK studies identified certain intersections and road segments i
falling below the performance standard. These intersections and road segments were the
addressed by means of financing and action programs to remedy the problems and restoi
an acceptable level of service. Those previously identified problem areas are listed belov
Palomar Airport Road from El Camino Red to the eastern city limit. Funding to wide
this road segment has been guaranteed by a combination of SANDAG funds an
private bonds posted by a consortium of property owners in Zone 5. The design fc
the improvements is nearly complete, and acquisition of necessary right-of-way
currently being pursued. It is projected that construction will begin in the summer (
1992.
La Costa Avenue at Interstate 5. Funding to improve this interchange to ultima1
standards is included in CFD No. 1 and is currently scheduled for funding in fiscal ye:
1993-94.
Palomar Airport Road at Interstate 5. Funding to improve this interchange is a15
included in CFD No. 1. It is funded in the current fiscal year, and the design is nearin
completion. Award of bid for construction is anticipated in the summer of 1992.
Palomar Airport - Road at El Camino Real, at El Fuerte, and at Business Park Drive. A
three of these intersections lie along the segment of Palomar Airport Road discuss€
above. These intersections will be improved with the widening of the road i
described above.
The 1991 JHK study did not identify any new road segments or intersections as fallin
However, the study did note two new areas ( below the performance standard.
intermittent problems. These are discussed below:
Intersection of El Camino Real and Olivenhain Road - This intersection showed
deterioration in level of service for the p. m. peak hour, compared with the 1990 stud:
However, the period of time during which it functions at an unacceptable level is still le:
than a full hour. For this reason, JHK rates the intersection as marginally adequate (
intermittently failing. It should be noted that this intersection lies within the City (
Encinitas.
Funds for widening Olivenhain Road to ultimate width will be provided by
26
0 0
combination of developer financing from Zones 11 and 12 and a contribution from CFI
No. 1. This intersection is scheduled for interim upgrading in connection with the Arroy
La Costa development project. The interim improvements will restore an acceptable lev(
of service until the ultimate improvements can be provided.
At this time, no subdivision maps can be finalled and no building or grading permil
can be issued in Zones 11 or 12 until their Financing Plan is approved by the City Counci
The Financing Plan will provide guaranteed funding for both the interim and ultimat
improvements to this intersection. Therefore, no further action is necessary at this tim
other than continued monitoring of the level of service.
Intersection of Poinsettia Lane and Paseo del Norte - This intersection has experience
a deterioration of level of service during the p.m. peak hour compared with last yea
although it still complies with the performance standard. The JHK report attributes th
change in LOS to increased volume of traffic due to the opening of Alga Road connectin
Poinsettia Lane to El Camino Real. Another possible factor not mentioned by JHK i
motorists use of the Poinsettia Lane offramp to avoid the Palomar Airport Roa
interchange. JHICs recommendation is to signalize the intersection. Signalization woul
be most cost effectively done at the same time as the interchange improvements that ar
funded by the CFD. However, if the level of service continues to deteriorate, it ma
become necessary to install the signals at this intersection in advance of the fu
improvement of the interchange. Therefore, it is recommended that this intersection b
monitored closely to determine if interim signalization may be required.
27
Fire Service Area
Zones 7, 14, 15
Zones 6, 11, 12
Units Outside Five Performance Adequacy Margin
Minute Response Standard
Time
127 1,500 1,373
175 1,500 1,325
e 0
schools
All four school districts that serve students from Carlsbad are continuing to pursr
their plans for new school locations. New development is continuing to pay school fee
and new sites will be acquired as a part of the financing plans for several Zones. Base
on these facility planning efforts and ongoing cooperation between the City and the schoc
district, it is projected that the performance standard for schools will continue to be mi
through buildout.
Sewer Collection System
Sewer improvements are provided on a project by project basis concurrent wii
development. The most significant improvement to occur during 1991 was constructic
of the North Batiquitos Pump Station, located in Zone 19 adjacent to the Aviara ar
Broccato projects. This upgraded pump station will assure adequacy of the Nod
Batiquitos line to accommodate projected demand in the future. Other sewer lines ar
pump stations will be constructed or upgraded concurrent with the development projec
which require them.
Water Distribution System
The performance standard for water addresses both line capacity and storage facilitie
Water lines are constructed concurrent with development or by means of the Capit
Improvement Program of the affected water district. New storage facilities are construct€
only when the projected demand from new development would warrant the capital outla
As of January 1, 1992, all water districts serving Carlsbad are meeting their respectii
performance standards for both line capacity and storage facilities.
29
APPENDIX A 0
,
ANNUAL REPORT
1991
CITY OF CARLSBAD
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN
TRAFFIC MONITORING PROGRAM -
City of Carlsbad
2075 Las Palmas Drive
Carlsbad, CA 92009
E.wuumY
JHK & Associates
8989 Rio San Diego Drive, Suite 335
San Diego, CA 92108
0 0
1. INTRODUCTION
PROJECT OVERVIEW
In attempts by cities across the country to regulate growth within their communitie
Plan is a Traffic Monitoring Program. The Traffic Monitoring Program entails the collectic
and analysis of data at critical mid-block link count locations and major intersectioi
throughout the City. Typically, data requirements for Traffic Monitoring Programs include tl
average daily traffic volumes recorded at mid-block locations and peak hour turn moveme
volumes at major signalized and unsignalized intersections. The field data is then reduced a
capacity analysis is performed based on existing geometrics and lane configurations. T1
capacity problem areas where unacceptable operations exist. This information is intended
assist the City in assessing future development adjacent to these problem locations whe
capacity deficiencies currently exist.
Growth Management Plans have been developed. An important part of a Growth Manageme
analysis of intersections and mid-block locations enables the jurisdxtion to identify potentj
This report documents the third year's results of the Growth Management Plan Trafi
Monitoring Program for the City of Carlsbad. The City of Carlsbad identified forty-one (4
key intersections and twenty-five (25) key mid-block locations for analysis. Data for tk
report was gathered during July and August of 1991. Similar efforts occurred during 1989 a~
1990 for this same time period and provided a basis for comparison.
The City of Carlsbad is a coastal community located in Southern California, 35 mil
north of San Diego, and the current population is approximately 63,000. Interstate 5 N
north and south near the western edge of Carlsbad and is a major route for commuters to bc
Orange County and San Diego. The facility also carries a significant amount of through trd
as the primary coastal route linking San Diego to Orange County and Los Angeles. T
Carlsbad Circulation system includes the following major arterials: El Camino Real, Palorr
Airport Road, Tamarack Avenue, and Carlsbad Boulevard. The project location map, Fie
1-1, shows the alignment of the major roadways throughout Carlsbad and the intersections a
mid-block locations evaluated in the Traffic Monitoring Program.
1-1
0 0
F
LEGEND
@ Mid-Block Count
0 intersection count
Location
Location
7
Figure 1-1
PROJECT LOCATION MAP
1-2
0 0
ANNUAL REPORT ORGANIZATION
JHK & Associates (JHK) collected data during the Summer of 1991 at requested mi(
block locations and intersections within and adjacent to the City of Carlsbad. The results t
this data collection effort are included in the appendix at the end of this report. In addition
the technical appendix, JHK has prepared a summary section for this Annual Repoi
Summary information is presented in this initial section of the report, and a description of tl
content of Chapters 2,3 and 4 is provided below.
As mentioned previously, a total of twenty-five (25) mid-block link count locations f
the collection of 1991 average daily traffic (ADT) volume counts were identified by the City
Carlsbad. JHK coordinated the placement of its counters with City staff and later reviewed tl
ADT volumes and performed roadway segment analysis. The results of the mid-block lii
analysis for the summer count period are contained in Chapter 2.
Although roadway segment analysis provides a good indication of roadway operatio
in rural settings, intersections tend to be the dominant factor in traffic operations within t
urban sections of most communities. The City of Carlsbad identified forty-one (41) kl
intersections to be analyzed. To help assure that the intersection turn movement counts we
completed in a timely manner, JHK utilized engineering students from local universitic
Morning (6:OO to 9:00 a.m.) and evening (3:OO to 6:OO p.m.) peak period turn moveme
volumes were collected at each project intersection. Also, vehicular delay was measured
each unsignalized intersection. The data was reduced to identify the peak hour turn movemz
volumes and approach delays, and this information was then analyzed using the Intersecti
Capacity Utilization (ICU) method for signalized intersections and procedures outlined, in 1
1985 Hirrhwav Capacitv Manual, Chapter 10, for unsignalized T-intersections. In additic
four-way stop controlled intersections were analyzed using recently adopted procedui
outlined in the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Circular 373. All analysis conform
with guidelines established by the City of Carlsbad in a document entitled "Guidelines a
Instructions for the Preparation of Local Facilities Management and Plan Transportation Imp
Studies". The results of the intersection data collection and analysis activities are presented
Chapter 3.
Critical project findings and conclusions are documented in Chapter 4. Technical issi
are discussed and recommendations for future traffic monitoring activities are also presented
Chapter 4.
1-3
0 . 2, LINK COUNTS
Mid-block link counts were conducted at twenty-five (25) locations throughout the Ci
of Carlsbad and can be identified on Figure 2-1. JHK & Associates conducted the link cour
using mechanical tube counters which were placed and monitored for two consecutive da
(48-hours). The counts resulted in the determination of average daily traffic (ADT) volumc
and these ADT volumes for the Summer count period are summarized in the Appendix. T
City of Carlsbad assumed a one-direction maximum capacity of 1,800 vehicles per lane p
hour in the peak period. Roadway segment analysis was calculated by a maximum on
direction lane volume to capacity ratio and the corresponding Level of Service (LOS) w
determined. Table 2-1 summarizes and compares the Summer of 1991 roadway segme
analysis with data from 1989 and 1990, and Figure 2-1 graphically illustrates the 1991 level
service during the peak hour,
After the analysis was completed for the roadway segments, only one location w
identified to operate at LOS F, Palomar Airport Road east of Melrose Drive. This sar
location was identified to operate at LOS E during the 1990 count period and at LOS D dun
the 1989 count period. In addition, La Costa Avenue between Pireaus Street and Saxony Ro
was found to operate at the threshold between LOS C and LOS D during the peak period. TI
was a slight improvement from the previous year and can be attributed to the completion oft
Alga Roadpoinsettia Lane connection. The remaining segments operated at LOS A, B, or
for the Summer 1991 count phase. The locations of the high volume links along with th
corresponding levels of service are listed below:
1989 1990 1991
Location Winter Summer Summer Summl No. Location LOS LOS LOS LOS
3 Palomar Airport Road east of E D E F
4 Palomar Airport Road between D D A A
12 La Costa Avenue between D D D c/D
future Melrose Drive
El Fuerte and El Camino Real
Pireaus & Saxony
2- 1
0
LEGEND
xx Intersectlon Count
Number
LOSA,B orc
LOS D
!% LOSE
4 LOSF
Figure 2-1
1991 TRAFFIC MONITORING PROGRAM
PEAK HOUR ARTERIAL LEVELS OF SERVICE
2-2
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a 0
Fourteen (14) of the twenty-five (25) mid-block locations for this 1991 report were al
analyzed in the 1990 report. Of these fourteen (14) locations, seven link count statio
experienced an increase in ADT from the previous year. The increase ranged from two (
percent to thirty-three (33) percent with an average increase of ten (10) percent. The otl
seven sites showed a decrease in the recorded ADT volumes from 1990 to 1991. 7
decreases ranged from one (1) percent to nine (9) percent with an average decrease of four
percent. Based on these fourteen (14) comparative locations, overall traffic volumes h:
increased by approximately two (2) percent during the last year.
’
A few interesting observations can be made from the ADT data along the main comd
in Carlsbad. For instance, north of Palomar Airport Road, Carlsbad Boulevard showed
ADT increase of four (4) percent while the same areatof El Camino Real showed a decrease
four (4) percent. Also, traffic volumes on Palomar Airport Road west of El Fuerte Street hi
decreased by nearly two (2) percent but have increased by two (2) percent east of El Fue
Street. In addition, another eastjwest roadway, La Costa Avenue, also exhibited a decline
traffic volumes by seven (7) percent. However, traffic volumes on El Camino Real north :
south of La Costa Avenue have increased by fourteen (14) percent and thirty-three (33) perc
respectively.
These variations could be explained by the recent opening of another easdwest comc
In September of 1990, the completion of Alga Road between El Camino Real and Poinse
Lane provided another easdwest link with 1-5. This link would tend to divert traffic from
adjacent east/west corridors, Palomar Airport Road and La Costa Avenue. At the same ti
traffic volumes on El Camino Real south of Palomar Airport Road would be expectec
increase as drivers divert to the new link. Thus, our expectations of traffic diversion, rc
choice and driver behavior appear to be well founded based on these ADT volumes.
It is important to recognize that although roadway segment analysis is an accu
assessment of roadway conditions in rural settings, it is often difficult to assess the ove
efficiency of the entire circulation system based solely on the segment analysis. Thi
especially true in urban settings where intersection operations control the flow of traffic on
system. Thus, the analysis of intersection levels of service at signalized intersections provi
a more accurate indication of system operations in urbanized areas. In summary,
information in this chapter coupled with the capacity analysis of signalized and unsignali
intersections in Chapter 3 will enable the City of Carlsbad to more accurately determine
current state of the entire circulation system.
2-4
e a
3. INTERSECTION TURN MOVEMENT COUNTS
Intersection turn movement counts were conducted at forty-one (41) intersections. F
3-1 graphically identifies the location of each of the intersections included in the study. To (
the data collection, JHK employed temporary staff consisting of engineering students from
universities. The turn movement counts were conducted during the morning peak period (6
9:00 a.m.) and the evening peak period (3:OO to 6:OO p.m.). The data from each three-hour 1
was subdivided into fifteen minute intervals, and vehicle turning movement counts
summarized during each interval. This assured that the peak hour would be clearly identific
both the morning and evening peak periods. All counts were conducted during the middle
week (either Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday) and the actual count day and date are sho
the Appendix.
To aid in the reduction of the field data, JHK developed an in-house computer sof
application program. The program used a Lotus spreadsheet format to identify peak hour v(
conditions to determine the peak hour factor and perform ICU calculations. The ICU calcul
for signalized intersections were conducted for both the morning and evening peak hou
twenty-nine of the forty-one (41) intersections.
In the past, lane group capacities of 1700 vphg per thru lane and 1500 vphg per tun
were used for the ICU calculations. As part of the ongoing effort to improve the 7
Monitoring Program, JHK studied nine signalized intersections in order to compare the theoi
and actual lane group capacities. Data was collected between 4:OO p.m. and 6:OO p.n
analyzed using procedures outlined in Chapter 9 of the 1985 Hiehwav Capacitv Manual
results of the saturation flow rate study are summarized below:
Saturation Flow Rates
Stand; Movement Type Sample Size Max Min Mean Deviai
Left 37 2687 1314 1871 316
Left + Thru 1 1517 1517 1517 N/A
Thru 49 286 1 1404 2077 30t
Thru + Right 21 2198 1161 1697 261
Left + Thru + Right 5 1910 1046 1392 33;
3-1
0 e
LEGEND
0 Intersection Count
xx Intersection Count
Location
Number
Figure 3-1
INTERSECTION LOCATION MAP
* No data collected
for location 28
3-2
0 0
Based on the results of this analysis and discussions with City staff, ICU calculations
performed based on the following lane group capacities:
Lane Groua _CaDacitv
Thru Lanes 2000 vphgpl
Turn Lanes 1800 vphgpl
The intersection ICU was correlated to the level of service for the twenty-nine (29) sign,
locations as follows:
LEVEL OF SERVICE RANGES
WJ RatiQ Level of Service
0.00 - 0.60 A
0.61 - 0.70 B
0.71 - 0.80 C
0.81 - 0.90 D
0.91 - 1.00 E
Greater than 1.01 F
The remaining twelve (12) unsignalized intersections could not be analyzed usin
procedures. Two intersections were ALL-WAY STOP-controlled, and the remaining w
intersections or ramps with stop or yield signs controlling the minor street or ramp approa
Chapter 10 of the 1985 Hirzhwav Cap acitv Manual, methodology for analyzing unsigr
intersections is presented. However, the analysis does not provide an overall measurerr
intersection LOS. For example, the analysis of T-intersections provides a level of service
measurement of the mainline through movements. Likewise, the analysis of ALL-WAY ;
controlled intersections provides expected capacities for different demand splits an
configurations but no measurement of the overall intersection LOS.
side street and conflicting mainline movements based on reserve capacity but provides n
Last year, a methodology based on average vehicle delay was developed and appro
the City Traffic Engineer. This methodology required an estimation of vehicular delay ba
V/C ratios and corresponding LOS's. Once again in an effort to improve the Traffic Mon
Program, JHK collected actual delay measurements for all conflicting movements at the
3-3
0 0
(12) unsignalized intersections. This information was then utilized in calculating a total, wei
average delay for the intersection. The total intersection delay was then compared to Table
the 1985 Highway Cap acitv Manual to obtain the overall intersection level of service. The L
Delay table is summarized as follows:
LOS Delay/Vehicle (sec)
A - < 5.0
B 5.1 to 15.0
C 15.1 to 25.0
D 25.1 to 40.0
E 40.1 to 60.0
F > 60.0
Data summary sheets for the unsignalized T-intersections and ramps can be found in the App
As mentioned earlier, the LOS of the ALL-WAY STOP-controlled intersections cot
easily be determined. Fortunately, the Transportation Research Board VRB) recently put
new procedures for calculating ALL-WAY STOP-controlled intersection LOS's. JHK u
these procedures in this report to determine the level of service of the two remaining location
While the operation of a given approach is dependent upon the operation of the
intersection approaches, the methodology for analyzing ALL-WAY STOP-controlled intersc
is based on determining the capacity and level of service of each approach separately. Tt
TRB procedures include the following steps. First, determine the flow rates and number o
for each approach. Then, estimate the ideal capacity of each approach based on the volur
number of lanes. Next, adjust the ideal capacity of each approach based on the propor
turning movements on the opposing and conflicting approaches. And finally, calculate the a
vehicle delay as a function of the volume/capacity ratio. The results of the LOS calculatic
both unsignalized, ALL-WAY STOP-controlled intersections can be found in the Appendix.
After analyzing the results of the Summer 1991 count season, six (6) intersectio
identified as operating at level of service E or F for all or a portion of the a.m. or p.m. pea
Each of these locations was then further analyzed to determine the level of service during z
minute interval of the peak hour. Three (3) intersections were signalized and the other t
were unsignalized.
3-4
0 0
The signalized intersections were anlayzed by assuming a peak hour factor of 1 .OO f
15-minute period's volumes. ICU ratios and LOS's were then calculated from the resulting
volumes. Palomar Airport Road at Business Park Drive was the only signalized location to
LOS E or F conditions during all four (4) 15-minute peak hour periods, and this only o(
during the morning peak hour.
The unsignalized intersection of Paseo Del Norte at Poinsettia Lane was analyzed sii
the signalized locations, except for the use of TRB procedures instead of ICU procedure
other two (2) unsignalized locations were at ramp intersections. Both were evaluated us
actual delay data and volumes obtained in the field for each 15-minute period of the peak k
delay value was calculated for each 15-minute period, and the corresponding LOS was a:
This method is similar to the peak hour LOS calculations found in the Appendix. Nont
unsignalized intersections operated at LOS E or F for a full hour during either peak hour.
The ICU and LOS for both the Winter and Summer 1989 count seasons, Summc
count season, and Summer 1991 count season are summarized in Table 3-1. In addition,
3-2 and 3-3 graphically illustrate the intersection levels of service for both morning and af
peak periods. The Summer 1991 LOS calculations identified nine (9) intersections that oper,
below LOS D in the morning and/or evening peak period. A discussion of traffic operations
of these intersections follows.
El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Road
The ICU calculations identified this intersection as a problem location with LOS E (0
during the p.m. peak . Analysis of the four (4), 15-minute, p.m. peak periods indicated
LOS E or worse conditions existed for only 45 minutes. The Heavy Demand anal
performed last year indicated this location was operating at LOS F (1.05). It appears the
easvwest link between El Camino Real and 1-5 from Alga Road to Poinsettia Lane has divert
portion of the traffic which used this intersection in the past. There is approximately 14 per
less p.m. peak hour total entering volume this year as compared to last year, and this has le
an LOS improvement of ten percent. Heavy demand still exists for the northbound right
movement in the afternoon and additional geometric modifications or signal phasing cha
may be needed to prevent further degradation of the level of service.
3-5
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F
LEGEND
xx Intersection Count
* Intersection operates
at LOS E or LOS F for
less than one full hour
Figure 3-2
1991 AM PEAK HOUR
INTERSECTION LEVELS OF SERVICE
3- 10
0 0
4
xx Inteisection Count
at LOS E 01 LOS F fol
less than one full hour
Figure 3-3
1991 PM PEAK HOUR INTERSECTION LEVELS OF SERVICE
3-11
0 e
El Camino Real and Olivenhain Road
This intersection operates poorly during the p.m. peak pehod for the second strail
year. As experienced previously, commuters making the northbound right turn maneuver
the afternoon contribute over forty percent of the ICU ratio of LOS E (0.91). Last yea
Heavy Demand indicated LOS D (0.83). This movement is made from an exclusive right tL
lane at present. Conditions indicate the need for additional geometric capacity at tl
intersection. It should be noted that the intersection operates at LOS E or worse for only
minutes of the peak hour.
Palomar Airport Road and Paseo Del Norte
The volume of traffic that utilizes this intersection has decreased during the last twel
months. Approximately 16 percent less vehicles now travel through this location in the p.1
peak period, and this has led to an improvement in the level of service from LOS D (0.85)
1990 to LOS D (0.80) in 1991. Again, the diversion of traffic to the new east/west link m
have been the reason for the improvement. However, additional through lane capacity fort
westbound direction would help alleviate some of the stress on this intersection.
Palomar Airport Road and El Fuerte Street
The ICU calculations identified this intersection as a problem location in the p.m. pei
period with LOS D (0.88), a slight improvement over last year's Heavy Demand analysis
LOS E (0.93). The eastbound though movement of nearly 1500 vehicles during the peak ho
is restricted to one lane. Additional through lane capacity for eastbound vehicles wou
improve the level of service to an acceptable value.
Palomar Airport Road and Business Park Drive
Operational problems exist during both a.m. and p.m. peak periods at this locatio
The morning period shows heavy volumes for the westbound through movement and t
southbound right turn movement. These two maneuvers comprise most of the ICU ratio (
LOS F (1.11). Levels of service E and F exist during the entire morning peak hour. Retui
(0.96). The afternoon peak hour, however, operates at LOS E or worse for only 30 minute
Similar to the intersection of Palomar Airport Road and El Fuerte Street, this intersection al:
lacks adequate through capacity to meet the demand. Additional turn lanes for the critic
trips using the west approach impact intersection operations in the afternoon and lead to LOS
3-12
e 0
approaches will also help alleviate congestion problems. The above mentioned LOS's a
slight improvements over last year's and are due in part to a "spreading" of the peak hot
This "spreading" reduces the impact of the peak hour but lengthens the duration.
Poinsettia Lane and Paseo Del Norte
This unsignalized intersection is currently ALL-WAY STOP-controlled. The TR
analysis method for the overall intersection operations resulted in LOS E conditions for tl
evening peak period. However, the intersection only operates at LOS E or worse for L
minutes during the p.m. peak hour. Based on the approach delay calculations, the eastbour
and southbound approaches exhibit average vehicle delays between 35 and 50 seconds. TI
recent completion of the extension of Alga Road to Poinsettia Lane has led to increased traff
volumes at this location. In fact, 26 percent more vehicles enter this intersection in the p.1
peak hour than did just one year ago. Consideration should be given to increasing the numb
of lanes or providing signalization at this location.
1-5 Southbound Ramp and Cannon Road
This unsignalized ramp operates at LOS D in the morning peak period. A substanti
number of southbound left turning vehicles account for the total intersection delay of nearly L
seconds per vehicle. An additional left turn lane or signalization of this ramp should t
considered to help mitigate the high delay per vehicle.
1-5 Northbound Ramp and Palomar Airport Road
This location currently exhibits a significant number of vehicles that travel eastboun
through the intersection. These vehicles disrupt the flow of the northbound traffic, most I
which desires to turn right. Northbound traffic currently operates at LOS F during the mornin
peak period which contributes to the overall intersection delay of nearly 60 seconds per vehicl
as measured in the field. Analysis of the four (4), 15-minute, a.m. peak periods indicated th:
LOS E or worse conditions existed for only 30 minutes. Consideration should be given 1
additional easdwest through lanes and the possible signalization of this ramp.
1-5 Northbound Ramp and La Costa Avenue
This location is very similar to the previous ramp intersection at Palomar Airport Roac
The main difference is that this ramp experiences LOS E during the evening peak hour instea
of the morning peak hour. The total average delay per vehicle is nearly 50 seconds and coul
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be reduced by increasing the east/west through capacity or possibly by signalization. Also, 1
should be noted that the intersection only operates at LOS E or worse for 45 of the 60 pea
hour minutes.
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4. CONCLUSIONS
The scope of work for this project was developed to allow the City of Carlsbad to
monitor growth at several intersections and mid-block locations that were studied during 1989
and 1990, as well as monitor several new locations. In all, thirty-two (32) intersections from
1989 and/or 1990 were again studied this year while data was collected at nige (9) new
intersections, eight of which were ramp intersections, In addition, fifteen (15) mid-block
locations from previous Traffic Monitoring studies were included with the twenty-five (25)
locations studied this year.
The results for the mid-block count locations indicate that traffic has increased by an
average of two (2) percent compared to last year's study. Most notably, volumes on El
Camino Real between Alga Road and Olivenhain Road increased by fifteen (15) to thirty (30)
percent since 1990. Inadequate capacity is evident on Palomar Airpod Road east of future
Melrose Drive. This location is currently operating at LOS F during the peak hour and also
operates at LOS D or E for two additional hours each day. Also, La Costa Avenue is operating
at the threshold between LOS C and D during the peak hour and this has a direct effect on
intersection levels of service along this corridor.
The information contained in Chapter 3 identifies nine (9) critical intersections from the
forty-one (41) study locations. The intersection of Palomar Airport Road and Business Park
Drive is the most critical intersection within the study. LOS E and F were identified for this
intersection during both AM and PM periods respectively. A close second to this location is
the intersection of El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Road. ICU analysis indicates that the
afternoon peak hour operates at LOS E. In addition, the intersection of El Camino Real and
Olivenhain Road also operates at LOS E during the afternoon peak period. Other intersections
which still have low levels of service include Palomar Airport Road at Paseo Del Norte and
Palomar Axport Road at El Fuerte Street. Also, four unsignalized intersections, Paseo Del
Norte at Poinsettia Lane and three of the 1-5 ramps currently operate at LOS D, E or F for at
least one peak period each day. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that these
signalized and unsignalized intersections be reviewed by the City to determine if mitigation
should be considered,
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k
The remaining signalized intersections were found to have acceptable levels of service.
It can be concluded that operations at these remaining intersections may require periodic
monitoring and additional geometric analysis. Options to mitigation may include the
reclassification of some intersections to "interim conditions" until future elements of the
circulation plan are implemented. This would allow these facilities to function at their present
LOS until the completion of additional east/west or north/south facilities. For example, the
recent completion of Alga Road between El Camino Real and Poinsettia Lane provided another
easvwest fink with 1-5. This route helped relieve nearby facilities which were approaching
saturation levels. Additional roadways would also provide alternate routes for existing and
future traffic volumes. This alternative to mitigation is viable if the elements are anticipated in
the short term of 1 to 3 years. Based on the observed volumes on these existing facilities it is
recommended that mitigation be provided in the near term (1 to 3 years).
Another interesting trend discovered during the data analysis concerned the "spreading"
of the peak hour. The top ten volume intersections were analyzed with respect to the total
entering volume. The results indicate that intersection traffic volumes have declined this year
during the afternoon peak period by approximately five (5) percent. However, further analysis
indicated that the afternoon peak two hours are nearly identical from last year to this year.
Thus, it appears that the peak hour is being reduced in intensity but prolonged in duration.
In conclusion, this report was developed for the City of Carlsbad as the third Traffic
Monitoring Program for the recently developed Growth Management Plan. Critical
intersections have been identified and potential mitigation measures have been discussed. The
report represents a conservative estimate of intersection operations based on the guidelines
developed by the City of Carlsbad. The intent of this document is to provide City staff with an
indication of the current status of the overall circulation system in terms of intersection and
segment capacities and levels of service. In the future, this report will be used as a tool for the
accurate identification of conditions in specific areas of the City. Also, the results of this
project identify critical locations which warrant close attention in the future. The City may
utilize the conclusions of this report to aid in the creation of a future scope of work for
additional traffic monitoring.
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