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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1993-01-26; City Council; 12049; 1992-93 general fund mid-year financial reportA - 2 Q & 4 0 2 z 0 i= 0 a 6 Z 3 0 0 Y w C@f OF CARLSBAD - AGEaA BILL DEPT. F1N GENERAL FUND FOR FISCAL YEAR 1992-93 CITY MGR: t AB # japrcr TITLE: DEPT. HD. MTG. 1/26/93 MID YEAR FINANCIAL, REPORT OF THE CITY ATTY RECOMMENDED ACTION: Receive and file ITEM EXPLANATION: This report summarizes the fiscal status of the General Fund for the first half of fiscal year 1992-93. Revenues: Total revenues for the General Fund through December are down 8% compared to collections as of this date last year while our estimate is for only a 1% decrease for the year. These numbers are an improvement over the November figures but are still below the estimates. Property taxes through December are less than last year’s collections by over 10% and are 8% below our estimate for this time of the year. However, the January payment which was just received from the County is higher than usual. Thus, through January, we are only 2.7% below last year which puts us very close to our estimate of a 2.3% decrease. The only caveat to this good news is that the County distributions have been all over the board this year making it very difficult to compare last year‘s receipts with this year‘s. On a monthly basis, we have been anywhere from 85% below last year to 3% above. Most of these variances have been due to the County trying to adjust for the redistn’bution of property taxes caused by the State budget. We were told that all adjustments had been made by the December payment but the variances are continuing to occur. Considering the current information, it is very possible that the property tax estimate for the year may be overstated by as much as $500,000. Sales taxes, the next largest revenue source for the General Fund, are still showing a 1% decline from last year at this time. The estimate had been for a 9% increase in the sales current receipts. We won’t see actual results from either of these until March. Even if the stores had a good Christmas season, which many papers are reported, it may not be enough to make up for the poor first half of the year. All of the development related revenues are still less than estimated at this time; however, there is good news from the planning department. They took in almost $200,000 in fees in December putting them even with last year for the six month period. While this is good news it is still not enough to make up for all the other declines. Through December, the five development revenues are running approximately $550,000 behind our projections which extrapolates to a potential $1.1 million shodall for the year if these trends continue. The shortfall is mainly the result of the continuing depression in the real estate industry for which no recovery has yet been seen. Although the San Diego Economic Bulletin is forecasting an increase in the number of housing units built in 1993, they have stated there are several road blocks to even a small amount of new growth including: the lack of taxes. Neither the additional Price Club sales or the Christmas sales are reflected in the 0 Page Two of Agenda Bill No. la! 04 7 affordable housing, the region's general economic weakness, zoning and regulatory restrictions on new development (particularly low-cost multifamily) and the lack of financing to acquire and develop real estate. State subventions have jumped up this month to a 2% increase over last year. This is attributed to the State finally catching up on their distributions. Fines and forfeitures, however, have remained depressed at almost 50% below budget. This equates to a $117,000 shortfall which could grow to over $175,000 by the end of the fiscal year, Ambulance fees and business licenses continue to do well coming in 16% and 27% over budget through December. In summary, through December 1992, we are approximately $1.4 million behind last yeais collections at this time and approximately $1.2 million below our estimates. If we were to end the fiscal year at 8% below prior year, it would mean a $3.2 million shortfall in the General Fund. However, property taxes have shown marked improvement in January and we are expecting sales taxes to pick up in March. Thus, the potential shortfall would more likely be in the $1.2 million to $2 million range. The Finance Department will be reviewing the 1992-93 revenue estimates in the near future to determine if additional adjustments to the estimates are necessary. Expenditures: On December 8,'1992, Council adopted revisions to the operating budget for the General Fund which cut $2,578,000 from the previously adopted budget for 1992-93 as well as eliminating 42 positions. The attached expenditure status by department reflects the amounts spent or encumbered through December 30,1992 in comparison to those revised budget amounts. The General Fund in total has over 54% of its budget available. This means that through December 1992 approximately $1.8 million less has been spent than would be anticipated if funds were spent evenly through out the year. However, the majority of the savings recognized in this first half of the year are due to several specific items as follows: * The contingency fund has a remaining balance of $900,000 which accounts for $400,000 of the savings through the first half of the year. A payment from the General fund to the Golf course fund is done every year towards the end of the year. This yeais payment is budgeted at $600,000. As this payment won't be made until year end, it accounts for $300,000 of the $1.8 million "saved" through December. A number of maintenance contracts have not yet been awarded. These are expected to be let in the latter half of the year. These account for another $400,000 of "savings" in the first half. * * Thus, although the numbers look good through the first half of the year, a large portion of the potential amount saved wiU actually be spent in the latter half of the year. Considering the revenue situation, all departments will continue to monitor their spending very carefully over the remainder of the fiscal year. 0 0 Page Three of Agenda Bill No. I a! 0 q 'i In summary, it now looks as though we will not achieve our revenue projections while the expenditure levels may be very close to budget by the end of the year. If this were to occur, it would result in a shortfall of $1.2 million to $2 million for the General fund. Staff will be reviewing this information in the upcoming weeks to detennine some methods by which we can get back on track toward our goal of a balanced budget by year end. Possibilities to be discussed will include continuing the managed hiring freeze and putting a freeze on all But the mast netessaqr cantratt!. EXHIBITS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. General Fund Revenue - 15 Year Comparison Historical Analysis of General Fund Revenues Historical Analysis of Property Taxes Historical Analysis of Sales Taxes General Fund Revenue Status through December, 1992 Budget to Actual Revenue Graphs General Fund Expenditure Status by Department EXHIBIT 2 General Find RevenugHistory Millions Actual . Projected 50 40 30 20 io 0 87 88 89 90 91. 92 93 '93 93 Orig Revised New % graph depicts the history of General fund revenues over the last six years and the changes made during FY93. As can be.seen, the recession began to effect the revenues in FY91 with only a $1.2 million, or 3% increase. FY92 showed a real decrease in revenues of $600,000 for the first time in Carlsbad since 1979. The estimates originally made for the 1992-93 budget adoption in ,June 1992 were for a 5.5% increase. However, the continuing recession and the raid on local government revenues by the State caused the projection to decrease to $39.5.don in September 1992, a $400,000 decrease from FY 92 ("Revised" column on the graph). Now, with half of the yeah revenues collected, it has become clear that even the reduced amounts estimated in September were optimistic. No recovery has been experienced yet and the.outlook for the construction and real estate industry is as bleak as a year ago. Considering all factors known to date, it is believed necessary to once again reduce the General fund revenue esthates. The reductions come mainly in three areas: property taxes-$300,000 decrease, sales taxes-$200,000 decrease, and development related revenues - $575,000 decrease. The total decrease is $1.2 million which produces an estimate of $38.3 million (the "new" column on the graph). With this revision, the General fund revenues estimate is now below that experienced in FY90 with the trend going downward instead of the upward growth experienced in earlier years. This new trend in revenues is creating many challenges for the City in that it must find ways to deal with the increasing need for services despite a declining revenue base. .. ? )I* PR~PERTY TAX HISTOR~XIIISI~ 3 1987-88 to 1992-93 Projected Actual Projected Millions 14.7% 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 92-93 92-93 Fiscal Year Orig Revised New The chart above provides a historical look at property taxes for the City since fiscal year 1987-88 and the various projections made throughout the year for 1992-93. The first 92-93 column (Orig) reflects the estimate used when we adopted the budget in June. This estimate was made in the early spring of 1992 in order to move ahead with our budget process. to resume the previous pattern of double digit growth. The estimate was for a 10.7% increase over the FY92 estimate of $14 million. When we closed the books in July of 1992, the actual property tax revenue received forthe year was only $13.5 don. This difference between the actual and estimate for 1992 pushed up the percentage growth needed to reach our FY 93 estimate to 14.7%. As more information became available during the summer of 1992 regarding assessed values and the effect of the recession on the property taxes, it was obvious that the adopted estimate was too high. In addition, it became clear that the State was going to take some amount of money from local governments though what and how much were still undetermined. As a resolution to the State budget crisis was anticipated in the near future, the decision was made to wait to revise the estimate until after that final piece of the puzzle was known. The State budget crisis dragged out until final resolution in September 1992. At that time, the property tax estimate was revised downward for both the State budget effect ($1.2 million) and the effect of the depressed economy ($1.1 million). The new estimate anticipated a 6.7% growth in property taxes less the 9% taken from by the State for a 2.3% decrease. This is shown on the above graph as "Revised". We have since received the December 1992 and January 1993 tax payments which put property taxes at a 2.7% decrease from prior year. The estimate as shown in the "Revised" column is for a 2.3% decrease. While this would tend to give us some confidence that the revised estimate may At that time, a recovery was expected in the summer of 1992; thus, we projected our property taxes e e I. ' be fairly accurate, there are a few other indicators that cause some concern. One of these is the growth in assessed values for 1992-93. The assessors office has reported only a 2.6% increase in the assessed values for Carlsbad for FY93. This is down dramatically from the 8% in FY92 and 13% in FY91. With no recovery seen or anticipated in the real estate industry for the upcoming six months, it is difficult to expect much higher growth in property taxes than that from the increase in assessed values (2.6%). The other cause for concern is the number of assessment appeals that may be in process. The County is unable to tell us the number or the amount of assessed value that is being appealed in Carlsbad; however, we do know that there are significant amounts in the redevelopment area. If the Redevelopment area is representative of the other commercialhdustrid areas of the City, it is possible that these could cause a significant decrease in the property taxes due this year. The County normally is able to hear all cases in the year that the appeal is filed and, therefore, any adjustments would come through as retroactive adjustments to our property tax receipts. Based on the above concerns, it now appears that it may be prudent to further decrease the property tax estimate by $300,000, a 4.5% decrease. This would allow for a 4.5% growth in taxes less the 9% taken from by the State. The new estimate is shown in the "New" column on the graph. * 0 0 EXHIBIT 4 b. SALES TAX HISTORY 1987-88 to 1992-93 Projected Actual Projected Millions 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 92-93 92-93 Fiscal Year Orig Revised New This chart graphs the history of sales tax receipts by Carlsbad over the last 5 years plus the revisions made to the FY93 estimate. The original estimate was $9.7 million which anticipated 3% growth in sales tax plus $750,000 net increase from the opening of the Price Club. This estimate was determined in the spring of 1992 in order to continue with the budget process. It became increasing suspect as to whether the City would be able to achieve this projection as the summer wore on. No recovery in the San Diego economy was seen and the Price Club, originally anticipated to open in July, was not opened until October. When the State adopted their budget in September, the estimate for sales taxes was revised downward by $200,000. This effectively reduced the estimate for 1 quarteis worth of Price Club sales. (See column on chart marked "Revised"). Since that time, the slow recovery expected in sales tax has not materialized. Thus, another decrease to the estimate is believed warranted at this time which would further reduce the sales tax estimate to $9.3 million (another $200,000 decline). This new estimate is shown as the last column on the graph. BXHIBIT 5 0 0 *. * $$$$$$$$ 8 EkW ad-Tl-Wob-0 r I cu cU0l-l- bEg I I I aoa ngz Zao $?$?$?$?$?$?$?$? 8 m-cUmmaam mm- b I - Ill z s; I I 0 a z a n z OCU 0% no "L 3W ZLl g8 k# ZIW n 3 =: LF a wZ gz k!o qj m-G-m-6-00&-uj-o o- 42 !Q v CI) "c nh nnh n 00000000 0 W-rrbd-bo SSSSS-S8S 8 Aa OX U vp w - r 0000 0 880000 0 880~0-~-0_~-~? 0 -g uj-lncoCo--coco OaTtTtcUdam a- !+ 0) w-b -,to-- (0 a - 0 WBO. r 8~~O~ss0~0~8~ 0 E% CIfcUbbam~co a- 3p mbcUcoa00mm r wo,; cu" rCU ai- 00 0 7 -7 y b- z=y oz+n 00880000 0 000 0 3U J U W z W (3 $ v z F -b--d--brn cT+n 7 F zru CI Fs v, Cnul x0 v) 05 w 'E g -2 g - 5 gg z Qg $*% W CaLO E: > azo- W *xv)c -u 39 a v) gc/prdti$E fsggEE$ a 8"3TC+drc a @I= 0' cZicnOiiEE0 I- 3 'c1 c W't: EXHIBIT 6A 0 ? 1" . -, TAX REV NUE - BUDGET TO ACTUAL JULY - DECEMBER 1992 DOLLARS IN MILLIONS 7 6 ........................................ ................................. 5 ..................... 4 3 ..................... ..................... c< .' 2 .I 18 1 0 DEVELOPMENT FEE REVENUE - BUDGET TO ACTUAL JULY - DECEMBER 1992 DOLLARS IN THOUSANDS 600 500 400 300 ............. ......................... .............. ...................... .............. ...................... .............. 200 100 0 *\+a Q%+Q $9 *e5 <\Q+ ,-, .s? +++ q+* <GS+ (2.0' <\Q+ Q+% 9.p" B G.P +% \ %G <@G ,p.'" KAkilBl'L OB 8 9 p..- OTHER REV UE - BUDGET VE 'SUS' ACTUAL JULY - DECEMBER 1992 DOLLAR§ IN THOUSANDS 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 1, ,I I 8, ........................................... ...................................... .................................... .............. ............ ............ 2QO 0 - ,, *5 8 &%5 ,.."" 4%5. \-$a+ &+ k% 4 Q+ \ + .& 49 ajP , *: G+%P \* %55 P *% to+ , ,. I % 54% sa5 <% & +k5 (;L 59 ,I ,1 EXHIBIT 7 0 CITY OF CARLSBAD GENERAL FUND e *- 4 I' EXPENDITURE STATUS BY DEPARTMENT TOTAL AVAILABLE % BUDGET COMMITTED* BALANCE AVAILABI DEPT DESCRIPTION FY 1992-93 1 2/3 1 /92 12/31 /92 12/31 /$ GENERAL GOVERNMENT 1010 CITY COUNCIL 159,368 82,096 77,272 48 1030 CITY CLERK 28,700 13,131 1 5,569 54 1210 ATTORNEY 378,963 178,252 200,711 53 1310 FINANCE 91 4,678 41 9,042 495,636 54 1320 TREASURER 85,380 34,475 50,905 59 1410 PURCHASING 376,029 190,860 185,169 49 1610 RESEARCH & ANALYSIS 249,737 131,603 118,134 47 1020 CITY MANAGER 620,799 302,926 31 7,873 51 1510 HUMAN RESOURCES 824,650 325,723 498,927 60 1710 INFORMATION SYSTEMS 375,864 181,340 194,524 51 1910 INSURANCE/RISK MANAGEMENT 198,326 95,994 102,332 51 lxxx OTHER (INCL CONTINGENCY) 2,257,558 800,678 1,456,880 64 1990 MISC. NON-DEPARTMENTAL 1,013,250 252,670 760,580 75 TOTAL GENERAL GOVERNMENT 7,483,302 3,008,790 4,474.51 2 59. 21xx POUCE 8,847,775 4,251,396 4,596,379 51 22xx FIRE 6,816,906 3,247,013 3,569,893 52 TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY 15,664,681 7,498,409 8,166,272 52. PUBLIC SAFETY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 30xx COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ADMIN. 829,393 281,649 547,744 66 31xx ENGINEERING 3,533,675 1,874,422 1,659,253 47 32xx PLANNING 2,268,886 1,117,143 1,151,743 50 341 1 HISTORIC PRESERVATION 5,572 2,103 3,469 62 3610 BUILDING 962,998 363,282 599,716 62 TOTAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 7,600,524 3,638,599 3,961,925 52. CULTURE & RECREATION 4Oxx LIBRARY 2,365,29 1 1,144,644 1,220,647 51 42xx CULTURAL ARTS 251,525 110,531 140,994 56 41 xx PARKS & RECREATION 4,006,587 1,845,715 2,160,872 53 TOTAL CULTURAL ARTS 6,623,403 3,100,890 3,522,513 53, MAINTENANCE 8c UTILITIES 4,389,183 1,860,076 2,529,107 57 I TOTAL GENERAL FUND 41,761,093 19,106,764 22,654,329 54 * Total committed includes expenditures & encumbrances. ** Amount available would be 50% if funds were spent evenly throughout the year. GFEX9293.WKl