HomeMy WebLinkAbout1995-02-21; City Council; 13046; GREEN VALLEY INITIATIVE REPORT-
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ECOMMENDED ACTION:
CITY MGR. &?% EPT. CM
CITY ATTY -
DEPT. HD TITLE:
1TG. 2-21-95 GREEN VALLEY INITIATIVE REPORT
Accept the Green Valley Initiative Report and direct staff appropriately.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
At the January 17, 1995 Council meeting, staff was directed to prepare a report pursuant to
Elections Code Section 4009.5 on the effect of the proposed Green Valley Initiative. Elections
Code Section 4009.5 (now Elections Code Section 9212) was adopted by the Legislature in
1987 in order to provide the voters with information regarding an initiative's effect on a city's
general plan. That section provides that the City Council may refer the proposed initiative
measure to staff for a report on the following things:
e its fiscal impact
0 its effect on the internal consistency of the City's General Plan and specific plans,
including the Housing Element
e the consistency between planning and zoning
e the limitations on City actions under specified sections of the Government Code
relating to discrimination in land use decisions
0 and any other matters the Council requests.
The attached report has been prepared by staff to deal with issues relating to fiscal impacts,
General Plan and other planning issues, and legal issues.
It is recommended that the City Council receive and accept this report and defer the decision
as to whether or not to place the Green Valley Initiative on the ballot until the Supreme Court's
decision in the Devitu case. This report will be supplemented and updated to reflect that
the City Council.
decision and any additional information that results therefrom when the matter is returned to
FISCAL IMPACT:
The fiscal impact of the Green Valley project and the initiative summarized in the attached
report.
EXHIBITS:
1. Staff report - Analysis of the Green Valley Initiative.
.
EXHIBIT 1 *, e e
ANALYSIS OF THE GREEN VALLEY INITIATIVE
February 21, 1995
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FISCAL ISSUES
The Green Valley Master Plan and Initiative are both designed to provide the City with guidance on
how a significant parcel of vacant land may develop. Since the ultimate type of development,
density of use, and required infrastructure will have an effect on the City’s operating and capital
budgets, it is appropriate to analyze these measures to determine their potential fiscal impact.
The following section provides information on the fiscal impact of both the Master Plan and the
Initiative. Much of the detailed fiscal data has been taken from the attached fiscal analysis prepared
by Onaka Planning & Economics, a report prepared for the City as an independent review of the
Green Valley project.
A. Effects of the Green Vallev proiect on the City’s Operatinq Budqet
The Green Valley Master Plan proposes to construct 612,000 sq. ft. of commercial retail
space and 400 dwelling units on the site just west of El Camino Real and south of La Costa
Avenue. This compares to about 200,000 sq. ft. of commercial retail space and about 172
dwelling units allowed by the initiative restrictions. Using these numbers as the basis for an
analysis of the fiscal impact of the project has produced the following information.
The City’s operating budget will receive approximately $767,000 less per year (after buildout
of the site) under the initiative limitations on land use. As the table below shows, the Master
Plan project would yield approximately $1 million per year in net revenues compared to
about $233,000 provided under the initiative plan. In addition, the net revenue to the City
from operation of the project during its first ten years will be reduced by $6.74 million under
the initiative plan.
Fiscal Impact on General Fund - Operating Budcret
These figures are based on the net revenue received by the City from the project. Net
revenues are those revenues in excess of the cost of providing any additional City services
required by the project.
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B. Effects of the Green Vallev project on the Citv's Capital Budget 4-
The total demand for capital facilities will noit be significantly different under the two scenarios.
The demands for streets, drainage] park facilities] and other public infrastructure will remain
substantially the same under either the Master Plan or Initiative development. Although the
initiative restrictions will ensure that the subject property develops to a lower overall density,
publicly funded infrastructure as required in the Zone 23 Local Facilities Master Plan will remain
as currently programmed.
The reduction in density required by the Initiative will translate into reduced capital fees being
paid by the project as building permits are issued. Although the total effect of the reduction
is difficult to calculate at this time, the magnitude of the effect will be several hundred thousand
dollars over the life of the project. The City staff will need to review the Capital Improvement
Program to determine the effect of this reduction on the proposed project list and the fee
programs that support those projects.
C. Effects of Creating Mandates for Unfunded / Unanticipated Capital Facilities
The Green Valley Initiative envisions the inclusion of an recreation area of 25 acres for "active
recreational facilities; the possible location site for a community library; and a small
amphitheater." Based on this definition it is assumed that the intent is to develop the recreation
area in some way for public use.
Using existing rules of thumb for recreation area development, the construction of 25 acres of
park land would cost approximately $3.1 million if developed to normal park standards. If the
recreational facilities were to include features such as an amphitheater, additional costs would
be incurred. These costs are currently not included in any fee program or the City's Capital
Improvement Program.
Under the City's Growth Management Program there is no need for additional park or library
space. The construction of these facilities would provide services significantly in excess of
those required under Growth Management standards.
Since these facilities are not currently included in any fee program, funding would have to be
provided through private sources or from the General Fund. Use of the City's General Fund
would require that the City Council reduce spending on services to provide funding for the
construction of facilities. In addition, prior to the use of General Fund monies to construct
these facilities, the City would need to rnake a determination that the expenditure is in
conformance with Chapter 1.24 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code (proposition H spending limit).
The cost of maintaining 25 acres of community park property is about $I 25,000 per year. This
cost is not currently budgeted. These maintenance costs would compete for funding with other
programs in the General Fund. The construction of improvements beyond basic park facilities
would require additional funding for maintenance services
D. Effects of Requiring Investment in Capital Facilities for the Master Plan and Initiative Projects
The Green Valley Master Plan requires capital improvements totaling approximately $9.3 million.
The initiative project, although smaller in scope, will require substantially the same
improvements. This, coupled with the general reduction in density under the Initiative,
translates into reduced residual land values (residual land value is the value remaining in the
land after deducting the costs to improve the property) for the initiative project due to the
higher per sq. ft. (or per unit) capital costs as shown in the table below.
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E. Inverse Condemnation and/or Legal Defense Costs 4.
If the Initiative is approved by the voters, the City has the obligation to defend the measure
against challenges. These challenges may be in the form of claims for inverse condemnation
or other legal arguments attempting to invalidate all or part of the Initiative. Based on the
experience of other cities, the cost of defense of these challenges could be substantial. In
some cases the defense costs or the cost of settlements have reached into the millions of
dollars. If the Green Valley Initiative is challenged the City would fund the defense costs from
the General Fund. The City Council would need to reduce spending on General Fund services
or fund these costs from existing revenues. The actual cost of such defense cannot be
determined at this time.
Residual Land Value
GENERAL PLAN AND GROWTH MANAGEMENT ISSUES
A. Consistencv with the General Plan
Land Use Element
The Carlsbad General Plan Land Use Map presently designates the Green Valley property as
a combination district of Community Commercial, Office and Related Commercial and Medium
High Density Residential (C/O/RAH). The General Plan also designates Open Space (OS) for
the environmentally constrained (slope and flood plain) portions of the property. The Green
Valley Initiative would change the designalion of the property to Open Space, Community
Commercial and Medium High Density Residential (OS/C/RAH). Because the Initiative amends
the Land Use Element of the General Plan, there is no consistency issue between the Initiative
and the Land Use Element of the General Plan.
The Initiative would also establish Green Valley as a Special Treatment Area requiring a
Specific Plan for development. The Initiative establishes general land use regulations for
development of the Specific Plan which includes the following:
(a)
(b)
A maximum of 20 acres can be developed with community commercial uses.
At least 25 acres must be active open space which includes uses such as recreational
uses, park uses, community festival center, amphitheater and a possible location site
for a community library.
A maximum of 15 acres can be developed with medium high density residential uses
at a Growth Management Control Point of 11.5 dwelling units per acre (this would allow
approximately 172 units although more units could be approved if a density bonus for
affordable housing is approved).
(c)
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(d) A maximum of 200,000 square feet of building space would be allowed for all
nonresidential uses.
(e) Approximately 200 acres of the property must be left in passive open space.
(9 Development should be concentrated toward the southerly end of the property.
Following is a chart that generally compares the level of development allowed by the existing
Land Use Element of the General Plan, the Master Plan presently proposed by the property
owners and the Initiative.
4-
Again, because the Initiative is an amendment to the General Plan, there is no consistency issue
between the Initiative and the Land Use Element.
Open Space Element
As indicated in the chart above, the General Plan would require approximately 40% of the Green
Valley property to be left in open space. The Initiative amends the Land Use Element and Open
Space Element to require approximately 80% to 88% of the property to be open space. Although
there is no consistency issue because of the General Plan amendment provisions of the Initiative,
there may be an issue regarding the reasonableness of requiring the property owner to retain
that much of the property in open space. Often, the City is able to negotiate additional open
space over that required by the General Plan in conjunction with the actual approval of a
development project. Under the Initiative, the owner would be required to provide approximately
80% to 88% of open space without any actual approval of a permit to develop the property.
Housinq Element
Although the Initiative does not specifically indicate a maximum permitted number of dwelling
units, it reduces the acreage designated for residential development to 15 acres. Given that the
Growth Management Control Point for the RAH is 11.5, the number of units normally permitted
by the General Plan would be 172 units. The existing General Plan allows approximately 35
acres of property to be developed at RAH or a total of approximately 400 units. Although the
reduction in the acreage and permitted number of dwelling units could impact the opportunities
for and the affordability of housing in the City, the Initiative states, "density increases for purposes
of providing increased affordable housing opportunities, pursuant to adopted Housing Element
programs, may be approved by a majority City Council vote." Therefore, the Initiative is not in
conflict or inconsistent with the Housing Element.
Park and Recreation Element
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The Initiative requires a minimum 25 acre area to be set aside for active open space and that
development of this area, "may result in uses classified as 'active/passive open areas' under the
Carlsbad Parks and Recreation Element." The Initiative goes on to state that, "these uses include
active recreational facilities; passive recreational facilities; community centerfacilities; the possible
location site for a community library; and a small amphitheater." If the intent of the Initiative is
to require this area to be truly an active public park, there could be an inconsistency with the
Parks and Recreation Element since the Element does not identify a need for a park in this area.
The Initiative does not indicate whether the 25 acre area should be considered over and above
any other park requirement for the property. The Parks and Recreation Element assumes that
the developer of the Green Valley property would not dedicate park land but rather would pay
park in-lieu fees to assist in the development of the Poinsettia Park and the other park site that
has been dedicated to the City located in Zone 19.
Other General Plan Elements
Staff has reviewed the Initiative in light of other Elements of the General Plan and has not
identified any conflicts or inconsistencies.
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8. Consistencv with the Growth Management Plan
The Green Valley area is also referred to as Zone 23 for Growth Management purposes. A draft
Local Facilities Management Plan (LAMP) was prepared for Zone 23 based on development
projections from Master Plan MP 92-1, The Initiative proposes to reduce the size of the project
from what was proposed in MP 92-1. It specifies that no more than 200,000 square feet of
Community Commercial development may be constructed. The Initiative also reduces the
acreage designated for residential development but it does not specifically limit the number of
dwelling units.
From a Growth Management perspective, there is no necessity to reduce the size of the project.
The project as proposed in MP 92-1 with the recommended mitigation measures would not result
in the failure of any public facility that is addressed in Carlsbad's Growth Management Program.
The draft LAMP document provides more detailed discussion of each facility, mitigation
measures, and facility adequacy. If the project is reduced in size as stated in the Initiative, the
Growth Management requirements for public facilities would be only partially reduced, as
compared with the analysis contained in the draft LAMP. The facilities that have a Performance
Standard based on population (City Administrative Facilities, Library, Parks) could have a
reduced requirement if the number of dwelling units approved is less than 400. These facilities
are funded by Community Facilities District (CFD) No. 1 and Public Facilities Fee. There may
also be a reduced requirement for other facilities which are funded by fees or CFD No. 1 , again
depending upon the number of dwelling units approved.
By contrast, those facilities which must be directly constructed or funded in full by the developer,
such as drainage, circulation, sewer and water, would probably experience little or no decreased
requirement even if the project is reduced in size. This is because there is a threshold level of
infrastructure needed to serve the project regardless of the project's size. For example, El
Camino Real must be widened along the entire frontage of the property. If two bridges are still
required, the cost of these would be unchanged. Sewer and water lines will have to be extended
through the property. The primary cost factor in installing underground utilities is in the labor.
Therefore, only minor savings result from reduction in the size of lines installed because the labor
is essentially the same.
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In conclusion, although the Initiative does not specifically conflict with the Growth Management
Plan, reduction in the size of the project is not required or justified by any provision of the Growth
Management Program.
c
LEGAL ISSUES
A. Supremacv Provisions
The proposed Initiative is a General Plan amendment. A community's general plan must be
internally consistent. That requires the legislative body to periodically review and update all of
its elements so that they remain internally consistent. Courts have recognized the principal that
no one element can be superior to any other. The proposed initiative contains a provision
regarding its implementation which states that its provisions shall prevail over any conflicting
provisions to the general plan adopted between May 25, 1994 and the date the initiative
amendments are inserted into the General Plan. The legality of this
supremacy provision has not been decided by the courts.
There is nothing in the initiative which prevents, prohibits or restricts the landowner from applying
for a general plan amendment and subsequent development permits processed through the
normal planning procedures. A moratorium on development can only be declared by the
legislative body by following the procedures spelled out in state law (Gov't Code §65868).
Indeed, a General Plan amendment application is pending.
If the landowner proceeds with his development applications and obtains permits, the issue of
whether and to what extent the proposed General Plan Initiative supremacy provision can be
applied retroactively will need to be resolved by the courts. If a court determines that the
landowner has obtained a "vested right" to proceed with development, the proposed general plan
initiative cannot be applied to prohibit completion. Generally, a landowner obtains "vested rights"
to proceed with a project when he has expended substantial liabilities in good faith reliance on
a building permit issued by the city. At that point, courts have concluded that the government
cannot revoke development permits or prohibit completion of a project without paying just
compensation.
(Initiative, pg. 20).
B. General Plan Amendments bv Initiative
One of the other matters the Council requested in its report is the impact of current proceedings
now pending before the California Supreme Court regarding the legality of whether or not a
general plan can be amended by initiative. The case now pending before the Supreme Court
arose in the County of Napa when its voters amended certain agricultural elements of the
county's general plan by initiative. That case (Devita v. Counly of Napa reprinted at 20
Cal.App.4th 1716, 26 Cal.Rptr.274, 94 Daily Journal DAR 3838 to permit tracking pending
decision by the Supreme Court) was accepted for review by the Supreme Court on March 24,
1994 following a decision by the appellate court upholding the initiative general plan amendment.
The case was argued and submitted on December 7, 1994 and a decision should be
forthcoming in late spring of this year.
Historically, the General Plan has been seen as a legislative document adopted and amended
by the City Council as necessary to keep it current and to reflect the goals, vision and general
welfare of the citizens of Carlsbad. It has been described as a constitution for the future
development of a community. It has taken on more and more importance in the eyes of the
state legislature and the courts. The state Planning and Zoning Law generally requires the
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legislative body to adopt, amend and update a general plan as necessary to fulfill the minimum
requirements of state law and to reflect the local community's planning needs and desires. It is
well settled in California law that the adoption and amendment of general plans and zoning
ordinances are legislative acts. Under our state constitution, a legislative act is taken by the
legislative body or directly by the electorate through the initiative or referendum processes. The
Supreme Court has specifically stated that zoning ordinances can be initiated by the voters.
(Associated Home Builders v. City of Livemore (1 976) 18 Cal.3d 582). However, in a later case,
the court noted that it has never considered whether a general plan may be adopted or amended
by initiative. That comment prompted the Devita case. Mr. Devita is arguing that the state
legislature has delegated the power to legislative bodies to adopt, amend and update its general
plan and it is not subject to local referenda. He points to a provision in state law which gives the
legislative body of cities and counties, and not the voters, the power to adopt and amend the
general plan. That decision is critical as to whether or not the proposed initiative can lawfully be
placed on the ballot.
C. Inverse Condemnation
?
Under the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution and the First Amendment to the
California Constitution, private property cannot be taken for public use without just compensation.
That is to say, when the government takes private property for a public use, it must pay for it.
When there is a physical invasion of private property the issue is relatively straightforward.
However, there is a theory known as "inverse condemnation" that requires a government to pay
for private property when it regulates its use out of existence. When the regulation by the
government goes too far it will be a compensable taking. However, a court cannot determine
whether a regulation has gone too far unless it knows how far the regulation goes.
Consequently, a property owner must apply for development permits and those development
permits must be approved, conditionally approved or denied before a court can determine how
far and to what extent the general plan has caused regulation of the property. In processing a
land owner's requests for development permits, they must be consistent with the community's
general plan. Therefore, the issue of whether or not the proposed initiative is a taking of private
property without the payment of just compensation will need to be decided after the property
owner applies for development permits and they have been conditioned.
The test is easy to state but subtle in its application. A governmental regulation goes too far
when the application of a general plan or zoning law to a particular property does not
substantially advance legitimate state interests or denies a property owner economically viable
use of his land. Preservation of open space, environmental measures, health, safety and general
welfare are all legitimate governmental purposes. As to whether or not a regulation deprives a
property owner of economically viable use of his property is decided by the courts. In order to
answer that question, courts require an analysis to include the following:
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the history of the property
the history of the development
the history of zoning and regulation
how development changed when title passed
the present nature and extent of the property
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c 0 what the reasonable expectations of the landowner and the neighboring owners
were under state common law; and
the diminution in the investment-backed expectations of the landowners 0
If the initiative is adopted by the voters and a court later determines that the regulations as
applied to this development have gone too far so that a taking of private property rights has
occurred, the initiative must either be repealed by a subsequent vote of the people or just
compensation paid. The amount of compensation is unknown at this time.
It is recommended that the City Council receive and accept this report and defer the decision
as to whether or not to place the Green Valley Initiative on the ballot until the Supreme Court’s
decision in the Devitu case. This report will be supplemented and updated to reflect that
decision and any additional information that results therefrom when the matter is returned to the
City Council.
RECOMMENDATION
It is recommended that the City Council receive and accept this report and defer the decision as to
whether or not to place the Green Valley Initiative on the ballot until the Supreme Court’s decision in
the Devita case. This report will be supplemented and updated to reflect that decision and any
additional information that results therefrom when the matter is returned to the City Council.
Staff will return with the item prior to the last date for Council to either adopt the Initiative as an
ordinance or place it on the November 1996 general election ballot (Le. on or before August 1996).
Attachment: Onaka Planning & Economics Report dated 2/14/95
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ONAKA PLANNING & ECONOMICS
OfFlCE MAIL TO
605 THIRD STREET ENCINITAS, CA 92024
P.O. BOX 230906 ENCINITAS, CA 92023
(619) 942-0366 FAX (619) 632-0164
February 14, 1995
Mr. James F. Elliott
Financial Management Director
City of Carlsbad
1200 Carlsbad Village Drive
Carlsbad, CA 92008-1989
Re: Green Valley (Zone 23) Financial Analysis OP/E 130
Dear Jim:
As requested, I have reviewed the proposed master plan for Green Valley (MP 92-01), the
proposed initiative measure ("The Green Valley Balanced Use and Traffic Control Initiative of
1994"), and the financial impacts which the initiative, if passed, may have on the project and
the city.
The following are the principal conclusions:
e The initiative measure would substantially reduce the residual land value of the property,
compared to the proposed master plan. The reduction is such that a more detailed study
is needed to determine the economic feasibility of the development program specified in
the initiative.
At buildout, development in accordance with the initiative measure would generate
approximately $767,000 less in net revenues to the City's general fund, compared with
the master plan. Over the first 10 years of the project, the reduction could total $6.7
million. Net revenues are on-going revenues from taxes, fees, and other sources, minus
the estimated costs of providing public services to the project.
e
In conducting the above analysis, I reviewed the fiscal impact study of the Green Valley project
prepared by P&D Technologies (P&D) and the fiscal impact model of the same project prepared
by the City of Carlsbad Finance Department. The structure and assumptions used in the P&D
fiscal impact study are consistent with common protocols for such studies. The P&D study is
in fact slightly conservative in that it overestimates the costs of public service provision by not
crediting the general fund with one-time fees for service (such as plancheck fees). The Finance
Department model also relies on the same revenue and cost assumptions as the P&D study.
m52 14JE.WPI
1
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Mr. James F. Elliott
February 14, 1995
Page 2
The fiscal impact model used in this analysis and shown in Tables 5 and 6 below is similar in
logic and structure to the Finance Department model. However, the model’s input parameters
have been updated to reflect the numbers of residential units under the proposed initiative and
the revised estimates of taxable values (described in Tables 3 and 4 below).
Please see the attached tables for additional discussion. If you have any questions, please do not
hesitate to call.
Sincerely ,
Onaka Planning & Economics
J $a& naka, Ph.D.
Encl.
[M5214JE.W]
D 0 a .
Mr. James F. Elliott
February 14, 1995
Page 3
LIST OF TABLES
Table
1. Comparison of Proposed Green Valley Master Plan (MP 92-01) and Allowable
Development Under the Initiative Measure
Project Finance and Impact on the City’s General Fund Operating Budget: Comparison
of the Proposed Master Plan and the Initiative Measure
Residual Land Value Analysis of Commercial Retail Development
Residual Land Value Analysis of Multifamily Residential Development
Fiscal Impact of Proposed Master Plan Development (MP 92-01)
Fiscal Impact Summary
Development Program
Tax Worksheet
Fiscal Impact of Allowable Development Under the Initiative Measure
Fiscal Impact Summary Development Program
Tax Worksheet
Public Facilities to Be Financed by the Developer of Zone 23 in Accordance with the
Local Facilities Management Plan
Recent Land Sales of Graded Lots for Construction of Volume Retail Stores in San Diego
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
M52 14JE. WP]
/2.
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Table 1.
COMPARISON OF PROPOSED GREEN VALLEY MASTER PLAN (MP 92-01)
AND ALLOWABLE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INITIATIVE MEASURE
Master Plan Initiative
MP 92-01 Measure
Land Use (Net Acres)
Comnercial Retail 57.9 Ac. 20.0 Ac.
Residential 17.9 Ac. 15.0 Ac.
Improvements
Comnercial Retail 612,000 SF C11 200,000 SF C21
Apartments - Market Units 340 DU 146 DU
Apartments - Affordable Units 60 DU 26 DU t31
Total 400 DU 172 DU
Source: City of Carlsbad; P&D Technologies; Onaka Planning & Economics.
1. Extended Regional Retail (subregional retail) - 600,000 SF.
2. Comnunity Retail - 200,000 SF.
3.
Neighborhood Retail (convenience retail) - 12,000 SF.
Initiative specifies 15 acres of RMH at 11.5 units per acre, or 172
units. 26 units, or 15x, are assuned to be affordable.
/
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Table 2.
PROJECT FINANCE AND IMPACT ON THE CITY'S GENERAL FUND OPERATING BUDGET:
COMPARISON OF THE PROPOSED MASTER PLAN AND THE INITIATIVE MEASURE
Master Plan I ni t i at ive
MP 92-01 Measure Di f f erence
Project Finance
Project Value
Cmrcial $70,380,000 $23,000,000
Residential 28,350,000 12,183,000
Total $98,730,000 $35,183,000 (863,547,000)
-------_---- ________-__-
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Residual Land Value
Comnercial $22,266,500 $1,566,800
Residential 2,044,000 (655,300)
Total $24,310,500 $91 1,500 ($23,399,000)
------------ __-______--_
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Fiscal Impact on General Fund
Operating Budget
Net Annual Revenues at
Buildout [I] $1,000,807 /YR. $233,360 /YR. ($767,447)/YR.
IO-Year Cumulative Net
Revenues 121 88,865,282 $2,126,009 ($6,739,273)
------------ _-------__-_ ____-____--_
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Source: Onaka Planning & Economics; see Tables 3 and following.
1.
2.
General fund revenues net of public service costs; 1994 dollars.
Sum of general fund revenues less public service costs for the first 10
years after project completion; 1994 dollars, not discounted.
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Table 3.
RESIDUAL LAND VALUE ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL RETAIL DEVELOPMENT
PROPOSED MASTER PLAN
Costs of Improvements
....................
Bldg. Construction: 612,000 SF x $50.20/SF C13 = $30,722,400
Site Improvements a 7.5% 2,304,200
Major Infrastructure: 76% x $9,300,000 121 = 7,068,000
Subtotal 40,094,600
8,018,900
Total Cost of Improvements 48,113,500
Total Project Value: 612,000 SF x S115/SF 141 = 70,380,000
_-__________
Indirect Costs a 2oX C31 ------------
------------
Residual Land Value $22,266,500 ------------ ------------
Residual LV Per Acre $384,568 /AC. _______-____
INITIATIVE MEASURE
Costs of Improvements
------------------
Bldg. Construction: 200,000 SF x $50.20/SF C11 = $1 0,040,000
Site Improvements a 7.5% 753,000
Major Infrastructure: 76% x $9,300,000 121 = 7,068,000
Subtotal 17,861,000
Indirect Costs 3 20% t31 3,572,200
Total Cost of Improvements 21,433,200
Total Project Value: 200,000 SF x $115/SF 143 = 23,000,000
___-_____-__
-___________
_-----_--_--
Residual Land Value $1,566,800 ------------ ______-__-_-
Residual LV Per Acre $78,340 /AC. _____-__-_--
Source: Onaka Planning & Economics; also see notes below.
1. R.S. Means Company, Inc., for I-Story Department Store, concrete block and
2. P&D Technologies; includes Road A, extensions of Levante St. and Calle
steel joists, construction price for San Diego (incl. general overhead).
Barcelona; also includes major facilities identified by the Zone 23 LFM
Plan for developer funding; prorated by land use.
Development costs not included in costs of improvement, such as
engineering, plancheck, fees, site investigations, taxes, and insurance.
F.W. Dodge Real Estate Planning Service; average of sates of retail
properties in San Diego.
3.
4.
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Table 4.
RESIDUAL LAND VALUE ANALYSIS OF MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
PROPOSED MASTER PLAN
..
....................
Costs of Improvements
Eldg. Construction: 400 DU x 950 SF x 848.20/SF 111 = ~18,316,000
Site Improvements 6l 7.5% 1,373,700
Major Infrastructure: 24% x 89,300,000 C21 = 2,232,000
Subtotal 21,921,700
4,384,300
Total Cost of Improvements 26,306,000
-____-______
Indirect Costs 6l 20% 1131 --------__--
Project Value
Market Units: 340 DU x $76,500 141 = 26,010,000
Affordable Units: 60 DU x $39,000 153 = 2,340,000
Total Project Value 28,350,000
___---_____-
---------_--
Residual Land Value $2,044,000 ------------ -----_____--
Residual LV Per Acre $114,190 /AC. ---_-______-
INITIATIVE MEASURE ____--___-________
Costs of Improvements
Eldg. Construction: 172 DU x 950 SF x 848.2O/SF 111 = $7,875,900
Site Improvements 6l 7.5% 590,700
Major Infrastructure: 24% x $9,300,000 121 = 2,232,000
Subtotal 10,698,600
2,139,700
Total Cost of Improvements 12,838,300
___--_____-_
Indirect Costs 6l 20% C31 --_----___--
Project Value
Market Units: 146 DU x $76,500 1141 = 11,169,000
Affordable Units: 26 DU x 839,000 151 = 1,014,000
Total Project Value 12,183,000
--_-______--
------------
Residual Land Value (8655,300) ------------ -----_____--
Residual LV Per Acre (843,687)/AC. --___-____--
Source: Onaka Planning & Economics; also see notes below.
1. R.S. Means Company, Inc., for 2-Story attached single-family residential,
construction price for San Diego (incl. general overhead). Average gross
unit size from P&D Technologies.
2. See Table 3, Note 2.
3. See Table 3, Note 3.
4. Assume gross rent of $8SO/month and 7.5 gross rent multiplier.
5. Assune gross rent of 8500/month and 6.5 gross rent multiplier.
is affordable to family with income equal to 65% of median household
income in county.
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n fnza m -c v) m v) 3 cu. 2:!2 m
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Table 7.
PUBLIC FACILITIES TO BE FINANCED BY THE DEVELOPER OF ZONE 23 IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LOCAL FACILITIES MANAGEMENT PLAN
b
Estimated Cost C11
Drainage Facilities $800,000
Circulation Facilities
Intersection of El Camino Real and Calle Barcelona 50,000
Intersection of EL Camino Real and Levante St. 50,000
Add Southbound Lane to El Camino Real Between La 920,000
Costa Ave. and Southern Boundary of the City
Add Southbound Lane to El Camino Real Between Alga
Rd. and La Costa Ave.
500,000 C21
Sewer Facilities 290,000
Water Facilities 560,000 ------------
Total All Facilities $3,170,000 ------------ ------------
Total Excluding El Camino Real Widening Between $2,670,000
Alga Rd. and La Costa Ave. ------------ ------------
Source: Local Facilities Management Plan and Facilities Financing Plan
1. Cost data from Zone 23 LFM Plan.
2. One-half of the estimated cost; currently not included in the major
for Zone 23.
infrastructure budget of the proposed master plan project.
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i I
Table 8.
RECENT LAND SALES OF GRADED LOTS FOR CONSTRUCTION OF
VOLUME RETAIL STORES IN SAN DIEGO
Recording Land Area
Date Buyer Location (Ac.) Sales Price Price/Acre
6/92 Mervyn's San Diego 6.8 $2,729,000 $402,982
8/92 costco San Diego 11.5 $8,299,500 $721,758
4/93 Home Depot Chula Vista 13.5 $4,384,000 $325,705
6/93 K-Mart Chula Vista 14.1 85,061,554 $358,466
6/93 Price Club Chula Vista 15.6 $4,454,500 $285,179
9/94 K-Mart San Diego 9.1 $6,580,000 $719,912
........................................................................................
Average Land Price 111 $446,297
Median Land Price $380,724
-----_--
____-_--
Source: Comps.
1. Ueighted average.
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1
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JUN ONAKA, Ph.D.
Principal
ONAKA PLANNING & ECONOMICS
Encinitas, California
With over 23 years of experience, Dr. Onaka provides consultation services in the fields of economic
and fiscal impact studies and financing of public services, infrastructure development, and open space
acquisition.
Current Projects .
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Fiscal impact study of Heber Ranch specific plan, a 600-acre multi-use development plan in
Imperial County, California.
Economic impact analysis of alternative water quality management programs for Salton Sea, Imperial County, California, for Salton Sea Authority.
Socioeconomic impact study of proposed state correctional facility in San Diego County, California, prepared for California Department of Corrections. Socioeconomic impact and growth inducement study of SR 56, prepared for the City of San
Diego and California Department of Transportation, District 11. Implementation and financing plan for the City of San Diego’s 164,000-acre Multiple Species
Conservation Program (MSCP).
Implementation and financing plan and land value and urbanization analyses for the Multiple Habitat Conservation Program (MHCP), sponsored by a consortium of local agencies in north
San Diego County and managed by the San Diego Association of Governments.
Socioeconomic impact study of electric transmission line from Lucerne Valley to Big Bear
Valley in San Bernardino County, CA, for Bear Valley Electric and Southern California Edison.
Recent Projects
= Socioeconomic impact study of proposed state correctional facility in Delano, Kern County,
California, prepared for California Department of Corrections.
Fiscal impact study of a 200,000-sq.ft., volume-retail, commercial redevelopment in the City
of Chula Vista, California, prepared for the City of Chula Vista, Department of Community Development.
Implemntztion md finmcing plm for the City of Carlsbad’s 5,500-acre Habitat Management
Plan.
Socioeconomic impact and growth inducement study of SR 76 from the City of Oceanside to
Interstate 15 in north San Diego County, prepared for California Department of Transportation,
District 1 1.
Feasibility study of a $7,800,000, 1913/1915 Act assessment district for Avenida Encinas in
Carlsbad, CA.
Fiscal impact study of Camino Village, a 63,000-sq. ft. neighborhood shopping center located
in Carlsbad, CA.
Fiscal impact study of Poinsettia Shores, a 163-acre planned residential and visitor commercial
development in Carlsbad, CA.
Master plan and project financial feasibility study for Hana Ranch and Hotel Hana Maui, a
5,400-acre resort community in Maui County, HI. Fiscal impact study of Aviara Master Plan Amendment, a 1,40O-acre, 2,002-unit residential,
resort hotel, and golf course project in Carlsbad, CA.
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JUN ONAKA, Ph.D.
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Feasibility study for a $28,700,000, 1913/1915 Act assessment district for construction of
Melrose Avenue south of Palomar Airport Road in Carlsbad, CA.
Assessment engineering for the City of San Diego Assessment District No. 4070 ($5,900,000
bond issue) for Black Mountain Road in San Diego, CA.
Fiscal impact study of Sambi residential project, a 69-acre, 340-unit planned residential
development in Carlsbad, CA.
Socioeconomic impact and growth inducement study of SR 125/54, prepared for the California
Department of Transportation, District 11. Fiscal impact study of The Villages of La Costa, a 480-acre, 1,000-unit planned residential
development in Carlsbad, CA.
Feasibility studies for the Carlsbad Unified School District Community Facilities District No. 1
($12,175,000 bond issue) for Alga Road School in Carlsbad, CA. Feasibility studies for the acquisition and construction of Alga Road and Poinsettia Lane, for the
City of Carlsbad Assessment District No. 88-1 ($21,000,000 bond issue). Facilities financing plans for five local facilities management zones in Carlsbad, CA.
Fiscal impact studies of the City of Chula Vista's redevelopment agency on amending the boundary of the Chula Vista Auto Park.
Feasibility study of Mira Mesa Landscaping and Lighting Maintenance District special assessment zone (Black Mountain Road and Mercy Road) in San Diego, CA.
Growth inducement study on SR 54 (South Bay Freeway) for the California Department of
Transportation and San Diego Association of Governments.
Fiscal impact study of General Plan Update for the City of Chula Vista.
Fiscal impact study of Pins Ranch Specific Plan in Camarillo, CA.
Economic analyses including annexation studies, project financial analyses, infrastructure, public
services planning, and development scheduling of Banning-Lewis Ranch, a 22,000-acre new
town in Colorado Springs, CO. Master plan and financial feasibility study of Superstition Springs, a 1,650-acre residential and
commercial development located in Mesa, AZ. Cost-benefit analyses of the proposed major access road, flight test engineering facility, and
management facility at Edwards Air Force Base, Kern County, CA.
Parcel database management system and financial analysis model for The Ontario Center, a 600- acre residential, commercial, and industrial development located in Ontario, CA.
Application for Certification to the California Energy Commission for San Diego Energy
Recovery (SANDER) Project, a 2,250-tons per day, 67-megawatt, municipal solid waste-to- energy facility in San Diego, CA.
Application for Certification to the California Energy Commission for Irwindale Resource Recovery Facility, a 3,150-tons per day, 95-megawatt, municipal solid waste-to-energy facility
in Irwindale, CA.
Master plan of Batam Center, the principal town of Batam Island, prepared for the Batam
Industrial Development Authority, Republic of Indonesia.
Regional plan and master plans for five principal cities of Asir Region, prepared for the
Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Professional History
Onaka Planning '& Economics, Encinitas, CA - Principal - 1991 -Present
P&D Technologies, San Diego, CA - Senior Project Manager - 1983-1991
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JUN ONAKA, Ph.D.
Page 3
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA - Assistant Professor of Urban and Regional Planning
Kenzo Tange and URTEC, Tokyo, Japan - Urban Planner - 1973-1975, 1977
Education
Ph.D., Urban Planning, University of California at Los Angeles (1980) M.Arch, Architecture, Harvard Graduate School of Design (1972)
A.B. (Magna Cum Laude), Mathematics and Economics, Harvard College (1969)
- 1980-1983
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C
v Ibfl $9 7 c; my __ $-L 6 -
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rn CARLSBAD PARTNEREs~fiTb.
2364 Thanksgiving Towcrr 1601 Elm Itroot Dalh8, Taxa8 75241 214/979-9071 H 214/754-9018 FAX
VIA FAX
February 21, 1995
Members of the City Council City of Carlabad
1200 Carlsbad Villagr Drive Carlabad, California 92008-1989
bear Council MemberB:
We have reviewed ths etafP repork on the Green Valley Initiative, the ind6~end8nk review af the project: and the staff recemmendatlon, recommendation to defer your decisien until the California supreme court decimian on the Devita case is a reasonable courm of action, and we Bupport the recommendation.
Very truly yours,
We concur with the analysis an& believe the
a&- 7’
Allen D. Farris for Carlsbad Partnora Ltd.