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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1997-04-08; City Council; 14128; Neighborhood & community commercial land use study2 0 F 0 4 J i3 f 0 0 otherwise traditionally locate in community commercial centers. The result is that some shopping opportunities are not offered in Carlsbad, and residents must shop in other jurisc meet these needs. This has implications for sales tax generation and the convenience of shoppers. Staff would like to highlight this difference between the City's adopted polic development reality as an important issue to resolve. Consequently, the study outlin alternative responses to this new issue, but suggests that additional analysis should pre final actions. (see also the Fiscal Impact statement below.) r1 ‘# 0 0 PAGE 2 OFAGENDA BILL NO. /qj 16% Public Review Three briefings on the draft study and its results were held with affectt The Carlsbad Economic Enhancement Council (of the Carlsbad Chamber of Ci commercial brokers and economists, and land owners and developers. Out of these seven letters were received by the Planning Department, commenting on various asp€ study and its findings. Some of the comments were general, and others were very de technical. Understandably, some of the letters from property owners include concerns i individual properties, notwithstanding the fact that the study contains neither an: recommendations pertaining to specific properties. Staff has prepared over 50 detailed to these comments. Both the letters and the staff responses are attached to a cover mc City Manager, accompanying this Agenda Bill as Exhibit 1. FISCAL IMPACT: There are two areas of potential fiscal impact: 1. In general, the City’s existing retail development trend, in which some Carlsbad shopr are met via shopping opportunities located in other cities, may result in some losses o revenues to other cities. Whether or not this loss is real and how big it is, is extremely determine with any accuracy. Many factors come into play, including the mix of ta non-taxable goods sold by the particular tenant mix in individual centers, each centet of gross leasable sales area, the amount of trans-city shopping that would occur, factors. Without collecting detailed information from the individual tenants of the actua centers, only general, theoretical suppositions may be made. The matter may not be that the over-all projection of revenues for the City are currently forecast to be adequa the City’s forecast needs for the foreseeable future. (See the study report and res letters of comment for more detail.) 2. Several proposals for follow-up work are contained in the staff study and the letters of c In general, the work proposed by staff would piggy-back on the tools and methodolo for the current study and could be undertaken with existing City resources (primarily I although there would likely be a need to re-prioritize some work programs. Similz additional work suggested in the letters of comment could be undertaken with existing (but with new program priorities). Other work requested in the letters of comment, would require massive commitments of staff time and/or contracting for outside expertise and resources. The accompanying memorandum to the City Manager prov information on these requests for additional work. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Accepting the staff study does not constitute a “project” under the California Environmen Act, and, therefore, no environmental review is required. EXHIBITS: 1. 2. Memorandum from the Planning Department to the City Manager, dated January with letters commenting on Exhibit 2 and staff responses to these comments attach Study report entitled: Neighborhood and Community Commercial Land Use Stuc previously distributed). EXHIBIT I* ai 0 0 January 29,1997 TO: CITY MANAGER FROM: Planning Department COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY - STAFF RESPONSES TO PUBLIC COMMENTS ON Tt DRAFT Upon completion of the draft Neighborhood and Community Commercial Land Use Study, st: held briefings with members of the public during November of 1996. These briefings were he at three separate venues with: a) the Carlsbad Economic Enhancement Council of the Carlsb: Chamber of Commerce, b) a group of owners of commercial property, and c) a group commercial real estate brokers and economists. At each venue, the attendees were invited offer both formal and informal comments on the study. Subsequently, seven letters of comme were received by the Planning Department. These letters of comment bring out a number of important points about the study and the issuc it discusses. Some speak in a general way to the questions taken up by the study or to th methodology which was employed. Others offer detailed, technical comments regarding th use of terms, the methodology, or the implications of the study's findings to individui properties. Staff has enumerated the individual comments and prepared a formal response to each. Fc ease in correlating comments with their respective staff response, the letters were phot( reduced to fit on half a page, with the response placed on the same page, to the right of th comment. The letters and responses are attached to this memorandum for your informatiol and that of the City Council. A total of 52 responses have been prepared. In order of their arrival at the Planning Department, letters of comment are from: + Robert Vicino, an associate with the William Neece Company, a commercial Ian brokerage and economics consulting firm. James Panther, a partner in Sunny Creek Venture Partners, an owner-in-interest in on. of the vacant commercial properties analyzed in the study, located at El Camino Re2 and [future] College Blvd. Fred Morey, representative of MAG Properties, owner-in-interest in another vacan commercial property analyzed in the study, located at Rancho Santa Fe Road and Li + 4 Costa Ave. + Larry Clemens, Vice President of Aviara, owner-in-interest in commercial propert analyzed in the study, located at Aviara Parkway and Black Rail Ct. (currently the site o the Aviara Information Center). Russell Grosse, another partner in Sunny Creek Venture Partners. + ‘I ‘t 0 0 COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY JANUARY 29, 1997 PAGE 2 + + William Neece, principal in the William Neece Company. Russell Grosse. This second letter contained an evaluation of portions of the stu methodology, prepared under contract by Urban Systems Associates, Inc., a trai planning and engineering firm. The nature of the comments within the letters range from fairly general to extremely detail and technical, and staffs responses, therefore, exhibit a similar range. Notwithstanding I length and detail of some of the letters, the core concerns can be distilled down to a few issuc 1. Both the brokers and the developers/owners feel the study lacks the level of detai market analysis that would be necessary for making development and land i decisions on individual properties. Staff concurs. By design, the study was intendec provide only broad answers to the broad questions asked by the City Council (“Does City have sufficient land designated for existing and future retail shopping?” and “D( the City have adequate means to prevent those undesirable effects cornrnc associated with strip commercial?”). It was not intended to develop definitive mar analyses for the trade service areas of each of the 50-some-odd commercial si examined in the five-city study area. All parties need to understand and respect thf limitations. The study can answer some questions, but not others. 2. Consequently, most of the letters contain requests for additional work to supplement 1 current study. categories: a. These requests for additional work generally fit into one of thi Running the travel-time models again for various scenarios of added or delei commercial sites. Conducting full market analyses of the trade service areas for specified - or E sites examined in the study. b. C. Conducting more highly-refined fiscal analyses in response to the two n issues identified in the study ( a.) the potential loss of sales tax to other citi community commercial centers, and b.) the land use question, “Should the ( pursue developing more ‘true’ community commercia/ centers?”). Staff‘s responses to these requests are as follows: a. It would be feasible to expand the travel-time analysis to include the commui commercial center inventory of sites andlor various additional scenarios involv the neighborhood center inventory. Anticipating that there might be subsequ “what if” questions, staff modeled the travel times between all 715 Tra Analysis Zones in the study area as part of the original work (see the main st1 for details). neighborhood center inventory, could be prepared for any combination of si within the study area. City’s GIS section, to prepare the graphics and write-ups Graphic plots, similar to the ones prepared in the study for Principal costs would be staff time, particularly in at ‘I B e COMMERCIAL LAND USE TUDY JANUARY 29, 1997 PAGE 3 b. On the other hand, requests for detailed economic, demographic, a competition analyses of trade areas for individual sites would be very diffic and, likely, expensive for the City to undertake. The City does not have the f range of technical resources and in-house expertise for this type of mark analysis and would have to go to outside sources (although staff has determin that SANDAG has a limited ability to prepare site-specific demographic analys using its growth forecasting systems). In addition, any analyses involving vaca sites would require close coordination with the affected property owners determine what assumptions to use regarding future tenant mixes. To undertal this type of work for all 50 sites examined in the study would be a truly mammo undertaking. Staff believes that such individual marketing studies are mo properly the responsibility of the individual property owners and developers. The City’s current fiscal modeling system does not distinguish between tl classes of retail centers (community and neighborhood) discussed in the stuc Adding such distinctions would have to be considered carefully. It might ! difficult to carry out because of the number of variables that would have to I considered for individual centers (types of tenants, the floor areas of each, ai the mix of taxable and non-taxable revenues associated with each, all fi individual centers.). While some general observations can be made abo differences between neighborhood and community centers’ sales tax generatic rates, only general inferences can be made from these observations. See tt more-detailed City responses to this issue contained in the letter of comme from William Neece. C. 3. Commentors reacted strongly to the issue raised in the study: “Should the City pursi developing more ‘true’ community commercial centers?”. However, their positions ai polarized. The brokers and economists (see the letters from William Neece Co.) argi that it is important for the City to retain and implement the General Plan’s long-standir distinction between neighborhood and community commercial centers. They feel th, the City has important fiscal and service responsibilities to provide “true” communii commercial shopping service within Carlsbad. They also feel there are opportunities 1 do so. On the other hand, some (but not all) of the owners/developers (see the lettei from Sunny Creek Venture Partners and Aviara) feel strongly that the City’s de faci appropriate and should be continued. Because the study treats the General PI2 distinction as adopted City policy, Sunny Creek Venture Partners is highly critical of tt- study’s methodology and asks that the study be redone with the distinction omitted. Staff believes this is a critical issue. It is difficult to answer the Council’s basic questic (“Do we have enough land in the City for the full range of retail shopping opportunities? if there isn’t agreement on what types of retail services ought to be offered within th City. Many of the comments from Sunny Creek Venture Partners (letters from Russell Gross and James Panther) evidence a significant concern about potential competition for the vacant site at Sunny Creek. This site is designated by the General Plan for communii commercial. Because of their position on the preceding issue (they feel that distinction between neighborhood and community commercial centers should not be made) the history of blurring the distinctions between neighborhood and community commercial 4. , 0 COMMERCIAL LAND USt 3 TUDY JANUARY 29, 1997 PAGE 4 ‘e seem to view all neighborhood and community commercial sites as potential competiti to their site. They, therefore] object to the study’s major finding that additioi neighborhood centers are needed in some areas of the City. In general, staff feels tt a degree of competition is healthy for the City, in that it promotes a wider variety goods and services, and, potentially, results in lower prices for consumers. How mu competition is viable within a given trade area is not a question that the City feels it c, answer. It requires the kind of detailed, site-specific market analysis that staff fef ought more properly to be prepared by individual property owners. These points highlight the major issues brought out in the letters of comment. For a rick understanding] however, staff recommends that the letters of comment be read in their entire together with the full staff responses. Copies of this package (memorandum, letters of comment, and staff responses) will be sent the commentors following its distribution to the City Council. Once a date is fixed for Council take up this matter, staff will notify each of the commentors, together with an invitation attend. Should you have any questions or wish additional information, please advise us. MICHAEL J. 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Given our vision and land use objectives, does the City have sufficient land designated for existing and future retail shoppping needs? 2. If we need more sites, does the City have the means to prevent strip commercial effects? r1 t* 0 0 Carlsbad’s Self Vision ... . . . a residential, open-space oriented community that provides for the local shopping needs of its residents, businesses, and service providers, but does so with the minimum amount of new commercial land necessary to that task, with new development in well-designed centers, as opposed to linear configurations. source: composite of general plan statements , w Not - Included in Study General Plan build-out. The “Village”. Regional corn. 0 Officecorn. 0 Visitor-serving corn. (G.P. roads and land uses implemented. Year 2020). Neighborhood corn. Communitycorn. )) Retail Services. )) HoteUmotel. Carlsbad Ranch. 0 “Transit-oriented” corn. r. >I 0 0 A group of architecturally unified commercial establishments built on a site that is developed, owned, and managed as an operating unit and related in its location, size, and type of shops to the trade areas that it serves. (--Community Builders Council of ULI) w w Essentially, any grouping of commercial businesses not located in a Can exist as both linear strips or ,. 31 0 e Center Type Lease Area Site Ac. Population Neighborhood 50,000 150,000 10-30 40 - 150 k 400,000 10 - 100 150 - 300 k W w Primary Trade Areas Tpe of Center Driving Time Rm 0 ,I *9 W W Department Stores MontgomeryEocus PHOTOGRAPHS OF CENTERS Plaza Carnino Real, Carlsbad (x2) Encinitas Town Center (x3) ,I >* 0 e Neighborhood Centers W w Supermarket Specialty Mkt. Convenience Smart&Final AMPM PHOTOGRAPHS OF CENTERS Rancho San Marcos Village, San Marcos (x3) Circle K on San Marcos Blvd. Plaza Paseo Real, Carlsbad (x3) a 0 ”, 1- Community Centers - w Discount/Off Price Home Depot Circuit City Nurseryland Computer City Jerome’s Office Depot PHOTOGRAPHS OF CENTERS El Camino North Center, Oceanside (x2) Community Center, Novato (Marin Co.) (x2) Rio Vista Center, San Diego Mission Valley (x5) m ,' .. Specialty Centers / Power Centers PHOTOGRAPHS OF EXAMPLES North County Square, Vista (x2) Circuit City, Encinitas Home Depot, Encinitas W W PHOTOGRAPHS OF EXAMPLES State Street, Carlsbad (x2) San Marcos Blvd., San Marcos El Camino Real, Encinitas (2) w 0 *. .I Study Methodology - w If all areas of the City are within the primary trade area of one community center and one neighborhood center, basic service exists. Areas not within a primary trade area of either center-type need additional service opportunities. -. .. 0 e General Methodology H Map primary trade areas of all existing and planned “N” and “C” centers within Carlsbad and within a 3-mile radius of City boundary. Evaluate for overlaps A five-city study area. H 44 sites examined initially. MAP Study Area with 44 sites w 0 Simple Radius Method MAPS Community Commercial - Radius Method Neighborhood Commercial - Radius Method 0 *. e= Travel-Time Method (neighborhood centers only) MAPS 7 15 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Neighborhood Commercial - Travel Time Method w 0 Addition of Proposed Sites MAPS Four Proposed Sites Rancho Del Oro, Oceanside Robertson Ranch, Carlsbad University Commons, San Marcos San Elijo Ranch, San Marcos Composite Results "* *? 0 0 1. Coverage is generally good, but we need additional neighborhood coverage in some areas 2. Parts of the City will be served only by centers located in other cities. (Sales tax and convenience e . 3. A number of our “C” sites have been built with “N” centers. This aids “N77 coverage, but limits “C” goods/sewices available to community. 4. We have tools to control strip commercial. Land use/zoning ,* .- 0 New Issues to Resolve: Issue 1: Is it okay for some Carlsbad shopping needs to be met in other cities? Convenience “true” community commercial centers? Issue 2: Should the City pursue developing more * rn We might lose some sales tax, but amount is a) indeterminable and b) likely creates no fiscal problems. Conversions of “C” to “N” uses increase this trend. opportunities may be okay. Given the City’s self-vision, loss of “C” 0 0 ,. =+.I Carlsbad Self-Vision . . . a residential, open-space oriented community that providesfor the local shopping needs of its residents, businesses, and service providers, but does so with the minimum amount of new commercial land necessary to that task, with new development in well-designed centers, as opposed to linear configurations. W - 1) Amend the General Plan land use designations. Delete ‘‘Community Commercial” desig. (eliminate “C” uses altogether). a single ‘‘Retail Center” designation. Refine list of No change. Retain existing “N” and “C” W ,. c* 11. PUBLIC REVIEW AND COMMENT W w CEEC (C of C) (1 1/7/96) H Economists and Brokers (1 1/12/96) m Owners and Developers (1 1/13/96) e e .. P* Public Comments 1. Study’s market analysis is insufficient for taking actions on individual properties. Response: Concur. Site-speci@c market studies should be undertaken by owners prior to any changes to individual properties. rn . 2. Study should include additional work: a) Run additional scenarios for travel-time analysis. b) Conduct full market analysis for some/all sites. Response: Should be responsibility of owners. Response: Diflcult to do, may not be critical issue. 0 *M .* Public Comments (cont.) 3. Polarized comments on issue: “Should City pursue developing more true community commercial centers?” (Brokers: Yes; Owners: Response: General Plan self-vision could provide support for a decision not to pursue community commercial centers. W m 4 4. Sunny Creek Venture Partners object to the fmding of need for additional “N” sites, due to resulting competition for their vacant site. Response: Study must be based upon the adopted General Plan (including its land use designations) and, therefore, the study ’s Jinding remains valid.