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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1997-12-09; City Council; 14471; 2020 growth forecasts phase I regional forecast* c @ CITY OF CARLSBAD - AGEr43A BILL ' 'I' .H 1 AB# J", Y'91 1 TITLE: MTG. /;I - * 9 -97' DEPT. - PLN 2020 GROWTH FORECASTS - PHASE 1, REGIONAL FORECAST DEPT. HD. CITY ATTY. CITY MGR - c I I I RECOMMENDED ACTION: NO ACTION IS REQUIRED: This is an information report to the City Council onl, I request of Council Member and SANDAG Board Member Ramona Finnila, SANC will provide a briefing on the first phase of the 2020 Growth Forecasts, the pr regional forecast. ITEM EXPLANATION: z a i= 0 2 2 2 0 F 0. 2 J z 3 0 0 23 I Approximately every five years SANDAG prepares a 20-year forecast of PC housing, jobs, incomes, and land consumption for both the San Diego region-as and SA,NDAG's individual member jurisdictions. This forecast serves as an i plannin!g tool fclr both the public and private sectors at many levels. Among othc local governments depend upon the forecast as a tool for long-range infrastruc facilities' plannillg and state and federal agencies make preparation of the fo condition for mxt highway, water, and other types of program funding. In addi forecasts are used by both SANDAG and the state to allocate regional and local e of need for housing for households at all income levels. This information is requirec in the housing elements of local general plans and is used in formulating local programs. Timely and accurate long-range forecasts are critical to local governmen Preparing the fxecasts is traditionally done in two general phases. In the first forecast: is macle for the region-as-a-whole, using computer models emphasizinc economic and demographic factors, In the second phase, the result of the regional is allocalted to the individual cities and to the local community areas of the City of S: and the County in a set of local forecasts. The local forecasts are based upon the local general plans - to determine where and at what intensity the growth can occ utilizes a second set of computer models to determine the order and timinc allocations to the region's sub-areas. Begun in 1995, SANDAG has just completed the first phase of the forecasts w through the year 2020. The preliminary regional forecast has just been release extended, informal review and comment period. This agenda item will cons presentation by SANDAG staff on the results of the regional f'orecast. Although the Ci::y Council may wish to offer comments on this preliminary regional I staff suggests withholding final formal comments until after it has had a chance to ( additional information that SANDAG is planning to release in January. This inform: consist of estimates of the residential capacities of the local jurisdictions and the re a-whole. Prelirqinary results suggest that the collective calpacity of the region's plans is insufficient to accommodate the residential growth predicted by the prelimin . PAGE 2 OF AGE a BILL NO. 1Yj 7.7 / a regional forecast. The shortfall is likely to be some 100,000 dwelling units. W these “extra” housing units go? A similar shortfall occurred in the previous set of growth forecasts (designated ‘I: covering the period 1990 - 2015). The shortfall was discovered in 1993, during allocation process. Eventually, a long-range regional strategy (the Land Use Di Element of the Regional Growth Management Strategy) was articulated to show collective residential capacity could be increased. Under this strategy local jur would amend their general plans and add residential capacity by emphasizing ir housing development around transit corridors and transit stations. Little in thc general plan changes occurred in time for inclusion in the Series 8 Forecast, how the! end, it was not possible to complete the local allocation process and no local 1 were completed or adopted. Series 8 was eventually designated to be only an forecast. It now appears that a similar problem will occur with the 2020 Forecasts (formerly k “Series 9”). The problem may be exacerbated this time. There are five additional growth to accommodate, fewer remaining acres of residential land, and some remaining acres may now be constrained by habitat protection plans. Until : cornpletes in January its analyses of the capacities of the adopted plans the full the problem will not be known. SANDAG is also preparing scenarios that would estimate the amount of capacity tl scenarios generate enough capacity to accommodate the 2020 forecast? Should a assume land use changes that have not been locally planned and adopted? A about 2025 and beyond? Where in the region should the bulk of long-term futurc go‘? What infrastructure and facilities will be needed? Hlow will these be paid for‘ and other related questions may require answers before the final allocation proces: undertaken and the 2020 Forecast completed. FISCAL IMPACT: None. This is an information report only. EXHIBITS: None. The presentation will utilize slides showing diagrams and data. be added under various implementations of the Land Use Distribution Element. w 0 m 0 0 0 San Diego Association of Governments BOARD OF DIRECTORS October 24,1997 AGENDA REPORT No.: 97-10- I Action Requested: ACCEPT FOR DISTRJBUTI PRELIMINARY 2020 REGIONWIDE FORECAST Introduction The Growth Forecast is an important part of SANDAG’s growth management strategy and is usec SANDAG, its member agencies, and many other private and public sector entities in plans and stt that require population, housing and economic data. SANDAG’s Growth Forecast is produced in two phases. The first phase produces population, hous employment, income, and other related growth information for the entire San Diego region. ‘The sec phase distributes this regionwide forecast to jurisdictions, communities and other geographic a within the region. This item focuses on the preliminary results from the first phase of the forecasting process, referred t the 2020 Regionwide Forecast. This forecast extends to the year 2020 and updates the region\ forecast (1990-2015) approved by SANDAG in May, 1995. The Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast was prepared with the assistance of the Region1 Forecast Technical Advisory Committee, which included experts in economics, demography, how and finance, representing universities, the private sector, state agencies, and local jurisdictions. Committee reviewed and reached consensus on the key inputs and assumptions that u.nderlie Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast and agreed that it represents a realistic and accurate portray: future growth in the region. It is my RECOMMENDATION that the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast be accepted for distribution. It is further recornme1 that the 2020 Regionwide Forecast be used in the forecast for jurisdictions and communities withir San Diego region. Discussion Attachment 1 contains selected data from the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast. Some, key trt from this forecast are summarized below. The region’s population reaches 3.83 million in the year 2020, a gain of 1.15 million persons. ’ represents an average annual increase of 46,000 persons per year, about 16,000 persons more W e year than the growth so far in this decade. Put another way, on average, the region adds, each year from now until 2020, a population that is equivalent to the current size of the City of Poway. Population growth so far in the ‘90s is much lower than historical norms as a result of the region’s severe economic downturn. Almost two-thirds of the population change will come from natural increase (births minus deaths) with the rest due to people moving into the region. During this decade, almost all of the region’s population growth (99 percent) was due to natural increase, which was considerably higher than the 37 percent contribution that natural increase made to the region’s growth between 1980 and 1990. Hispanics and Asian and Other population groups grow the fastest between now and 2020, both more than doubling their population size. The Black population increases by 3 1 percent, somewhat lower than the overall population increase of 43 percent, while the White population grows the slowest, increasing by only 12 percent. As a result, by the year 2020 no individual ethnic group contains a majority of the region’s population and the share of the region’s population that is Hispanic, Asian and Other, or Black rises from 38 percent to 51 percent. (Ethnicity statistics are based on self-identijication and currently do not include any .comprehensive and verifiable information on mixed race categories. Discussions are underway that may lead to mixed race classifications in the 2000 federal census. A recent test for the 2000 census finds that, depending on the ethnic group sampled, between two percent and I7 percent of the US. population classified themselves as mixed race. Vital events data for the San Diego region show that 16 percent of birth in 1989 were to parents of differing ethnicity. This figure rose slightly to 17 percent in 1995.) The region’s civilian job base reaches 1.63 million in the year 2020, a gain of 540,000 jobs. This represents an average annual increase of 21,600 jobs per year, similar to the growth in jobs since 1994 as the region recovered from the economic downturn earlier in the decade. The region’s economy continues to restructure and diversify because of the end of the cold war, defense cut backs, and the transition to a service and information economy. As a result, manufacturing industries alone (e.g., defense and aerospace) are no longer the main drivers or wealth generators of the region’s economy, and these industries are projected to grow by only 900 jobs during the forecast period. The region’s economic drivers now are also found in the non- manufacturing sectors of the economy, and industrial clusters provide better indicators of what makes our economy prosper. In addition, industrial clusters describe employment sectors in terms that are more meaningful and familiar to decision-makers and they are a key focus in economic development strategies being developed for the region. Presently, eight industrial clusters are identified in the San Diego region. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Software Electronics Manufacturing Health Care Products Communications Defense Manufacturing Tourism Recreation Goods Manufacturing Business and Financial Services 2 0 e Over the next 4 to 5 months, the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast will undergo further revieR SANDAG, the Economic Prosperity Advisory Committee, and other interested parties. The Econo Prosperity Committee will evaluate the consistency between the Regionwide Forecast and recommendations contained in SANDAG’s Economic Prosperity Strategy, focusing on the types of j being created and the region’s future standard of living. A Final 2020 Regionwide Forecast 1 incorporate the comments received during the review and any new information that becomes availabl In November, the Board’s Growth Management Subcommittee will begin discussing the second ph of the forecasting process, the 2020 CitiedCounty Forecast. Staff will be evaluating the land 1 transportation, environmental, and fiscal impacts of alternative growth patterns. From this analysis, Regional Growth Management Technical Committee and the Board’s Growth Managen Subcommittee will recommend a 2020 CitiedCounty Forecast to the full Board in the Spring 1998. Conclusion The 2020 Regionwide Florecast identifies challenges facing the region as it moves into &e 21”‘ cent1 It also helps monitor the region’s success in meeting these challenges. Projects such as the City of San Diego’s Economic Development Strategy and SANDAG’s Econol Prosperity Strategy are directed toward finding ways to develop and maintain a strong and heal, economy and to raise our standard of living. The 2020 regionwide forecast can help determine the b strategies for achieving these goals. Several regional and local agencies and groups, including SANDAG, also are working on plans to h maintain other aspects of the region’s quality of life such as preserving open space and sensitive hab areas, cleaning up our air, ensuring a high quality and reliable water supply, and providing an effici and effective transportation system. A new financing element is being added to the Gro\ Management Strategy that addresses the public costs of future development and the financing of neec infrastructure and facilities. Work also is underway to further develop, better articulate, and integr the components of a long-term vision for the region. Executive @c Director Attachment Key Staff Contact: Jeff Tayman, 595-5374; e-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us Funds are Budgeted in Overall Work Program #102.07 THE.SUL R 3 0 Attachment 1 a DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS San Diego Region, 7995 - 2020 Chanae 1995-202 1995 2005 2020 Absolute Per Total Population 2,669,200 3,125,900 3,826,900 1,157,700 Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Black Asian & Other 608,700 849,000 1,272,500 1,665,100 1,766,200 1,872,200 163,700 185,000 214,600 231,700 325,700 467,600 Under Age 18 Age 18 to 34 Age 35 to 64 Age 65 and Over 684,900 808,200 923,900 769,500 746,400 945,700 912,800 1,223,600 1,391,200 302,000 347,800 566,100 663,800 1 207,100 50,900 235,900 1 239,000 176,200 478,400 264,l 00 Uniformed Military 101,900 101,900 101,900 0 Total Housing Units 996,700 1,121,900 1,402,500 405,800 Single Family 581,900 660,400 819,900 238,000 Multiple Family 368,200 41 3,500 531,600 163,400 Mobile Homes 46,500 48,000 51,000 4,500 Occupied Housing Units 934,400 1,059,700 1,321,000 386,600 Household Size 2.75 2.85 2.80 0.05 Vacancy Rate 6.3% 5.5% 5.8% -0.5% Total Labor Force 1,226,200 1,480,700 1,831,700 605,500 Unemployment Rate 6.4% 5.3% 5.4% -1 .O% Civilian Jobs 1,085,000 1,316,900 1,625,000 540,000 Agriculture & Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Comm- unication, Utilities Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Sewices Government Self-Employed & Domestics 11,100 43,600 11 4,900 37,400 229,500 55,800 31 0,900 186,200 95,600 11,500 55,500 11 6,700 43,700 299,100 72,700 392,300 21 0,500 11 4,700 12,200 71,500 11 5,800 48,900 398,300 95,500 493,700 242,200 146,700 1,100 27,900 900 11,500 168,800 39,700 182,800 56,000 51,100 Real Per Capita Income (96$) $22,700 $23,700 $26,600 $3,900 Source: Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast, San Diego Association of Governments, October 1997. This forecast is under review and has been accepted for distribution by the SANDAG Board of Directors.