HomeMy WebLinkAbout1997-12-09; City Council; 14471; 2020 growth forecasts phase I regional forecast* c @ CITY OF CARLSBAD - AGEr43A BILL ' 'I'
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DEPT. - PLN
2020 GROWTH FORECASTS - PHASE 1,
REGIONAL FORECAST
DEPT. HD.
CITY ATTY.
CITY MGR - c
I I I
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
NO ACTION IS REQUIRED: This is an information report to the City Council onl,
I request of Council Member and SANDAG Board Member Ramona Finnila, SANC
will provide a briefing on the first phase of the 2020 Growth Forecasts, the pr
regional forecast.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
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Approximately every five years SANDAG prepares a 20-year forecast of PC
housing, jobs, incomes, and land consumption for both the San Diego region-as
and SA,NDAG's individual member jurisdictions. This forecast serves as an i
plannin!g tool fclr both the public and private sectors at many levels. Among othc
local governments depend upon the forecast as a tool for long-range infrastruc
facilities' plannillg and state and federal agencies make preparation of the fo
condition for mxt highway, water, and other types of program funding. In addi
forecasts are used by both SANDAG and the state to allocate regional and local e
of need for housing for households at all income levels. This information is requirec
in the housing elements of local general plans and is used in formulating local
programs. Timely and accurate long-range forecasts are critical to local governmen
Preparing the fxecasts is traditionally done in two general phases. In the first
forecast: is macle for the region-as-a-whole, using computer models emphasizinc
economic and demographic factors, In the second phase, the result of the regional
is allocalted to the individual cities and to the local community areas of the City of S:
and the County in a set of local forecasts. The local forecasts are based upon the
local general plans - to determine where and at what intensity the growth can occ
utilizes a second set of computer models to determine the order and timinc
allocations to the region's sub-areas.
Begun in 1995, SANDAG has just completed the first phase of the forecasts w
through the year 2020. The preliminary regional forecast has just been release
extended, informal review and comment period. This agenda item will cons
presentation by SANDAG staff on the results of the regional f'orecast.
Although the Ci::y Council may wish to offer comments on this preliminary regional I
staff suggests withholding final formal comments until after it has had a chance to (
additional information that SANDAG is planning to release in January. This inform:
consist of estimates of the residential capacities of the local jurisdictions and the re
a-whole. Prelirqinary results suggest that the collective calpacity of the region's
plans is insufficient to accommodate the residential growth predicted by the prelimin
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regional forecast. The shortfall is likely to be some 100,000 dwelling units. W
these “extra” housing units go?
A similar shortfall occurred in the previous set of growth forecasts (designated ‘I:
covering the period 1990 - 2015). The shortfall was discovered in 1993, during
allocation process. Eventually, a long-range regional strategy (the Land Use Di
Element of the Regional Growth Management Strategy) was articulated to show
collective residential capacity could be increased. Under this strategy local jur
would amend their general plans and add residential capacity by emphasizing ir
housing development around transit corridors and transit stations. Little in thc
general plan changes occurred in time for inclusion in the Series 8 Forecast, how
the! end, it was not possible to complete the local allocation process and no local 1
were completed or adopted. Series 8 was eventually designated to be only an
forecast.
It now appears that a similar problem will occur with the 2020 Forecasts (formerly k
“Series 9”). The problem may be exacerbated this time. There are five additional
growth to accommodate, fewer remaining acres of residential land, and some
remaining acres may now be constrained by habitat protection plans. Until :
cornpletes in January its analyses of the capacities of the adopted plans the full
the problem will not be known.
SANDAG is also preparing scenarios that would estimate the amount of capacity tl
scenarios generate enough capacity to accommodate the 2020 forecast? Should a
assume land use changes that have not been locally planned and adopted? A
about 2025 and beyond? Where in the region should the bulk of long-term futurc
go‘? What infrastructure and facilities will be needed? Hlow will these be paid for‘
and other related questions may require answers before the final allocation proces:
undertaken and the 2020 Forecast completed.
FISCAL IMPACT:
None. This is an information report only.
EXHIBITS:
None. The presentation will utilize slides showing diagrams and data.
be added under various implementations of the Land Use Distribution Element.
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0 0 San Diego Association of Governments
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
October 24,1997 AGENDA REPORT No.: 97-10- I
Action Requested: ACCEPT FOR DISTRJBUTI
PRELIMINARY 2020 REGIONWIDE FORECAST
Introduction
The Growth Forecast is an important part of SANDAG’s growth management strategy and is usec
SANDAG, its member agencies, and many other private and public sector entities in plans and stt
that require population, housing and economic data.
SANDAG’s Growth Forecast is produced in two phases. The first phase produces population, hous
employment, income, and other related growth information for the entire San Diego region. ‘The sec
phase distributes this regionwide forecast to jurisdictions, communities and other geographic a
within the region.
This item focuses on the preliminary results from the first phase of the forecasting process, referred t
the 2020 Regionwide Forecast. This forecast extends to the year 2020 and updates the region\
forecast (1990-2015) approved by SANDAG in May, 1995.
The Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast was prepared with the assistance of the Region1
Forecast Technical Advisory Committee, which included experts in economics, demography, how
and finance, representing universities, the private sector, state agencies, and local jurisdictions.
Committee reviewed and reached consensus on the key inputs and assumptions that u.nderlie
Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast and agreed that it represents a realistic and accurate portray:
future growth in the region. It is my
RECOMMENDATION
that the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast be accepted for distribution. It is further recornme1
that the 2020 Regionwide Forecast be used in the forecast for jurisdictions and communities withir
San Diego region.
Discussion
Attachment 1 contains selected data from the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast. Some, key trt
from this forecast are summarized below.
The region’s population reaches 3.83 million in the year 2020, a gain of 1.15 million persons. ’
represents an average annual increase of 46,000 persons per year, about 16,000 persons more
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year than the growth so far in this decade. Put another way, on average, the region adds, each year from now until 2020, a population that is equivalent to the current size of the City of Poway.
Population growth so far in the ‘90s is much lower than historical norms as a result of the region’s
severe economic downturn.
Almost two-thirds of the population change will come from natural increase (births minus deaths) with the rest due to people moving into the region. During this decade, almost all of the region’s
population growth (99 percent) was due to natural increase, which was considerably higher than the
37 percent contribution that natural increase made to the region’s growth between 1980 and 1990.
Hispanics and Asian and Other population groups grow the fastest between now and 2020, both
more than doubling their population size. The Black population increases by 3 1 percent, somewhat
lower than the overall population increase of 43 percent, while the White population grows the
slowest, increasing by only 12 percent. As a result, by the year 2020 no individual ethnic group
contains a majority of the region’s population and the share of the region’s population that is
Hispanic, Asian and Other, or Black rises from 38 percent to 51 percent.
(Ethnicity statistics are based on self-identijication and currently do not include any .comprehensive
and verifiable information on mixed race categories. Discussions are underway that may lead to
mixed race classifications in the 2000 federal census. A recent test for the 2000 census finds that,
depending on the ethnic group sampled, between two percent and I7 percent of the US. population
classified themselves as mixed race. Vital events data for the San Diego region show that 16
percent of birth in 1989 were to parents of differing ethnicity. This figure rose slightly to 17
percent in 1995.)
The region’s civilian job base reaches 1.63 million in the year 2020, a gain of 540,000 jobs. This
represents an average annual increase of 21,600 jobs per year, similar to the growth in jobs since
1994 as the region recovered from the economic downturn earlier in the decade.
The region’s economy continues to restructure and diversify because of the end of the cold war,
defense cut backs, and the transition to a service and information economy. As a result,
manufacturing industries alone (e.g., defense and aerospace) are no longer the main drivers or
wealth generators of the region’s economy, and these industries are projected to grow by only 900
jobs during the forecast period. The region’s economic drivers now are also found in the non-
manufacturing sectors of the economy, and industrial clusters provide better indicators of what
makes our economy prosper. In addition, industrial clusters describe employment sectors in terms
that are more meaningful and familiar to decision-makers and they are a key focus in economic
development strategies being developed for the region. Presently, eight industrial clusters are
identified in the San Diego region.
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Software
Electronics Manufacturing
Health Care Products
Communications
Defense Manufacturing
Tourism
Recreation Goods Manufacturing
Business and Financial Services
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Over the next 4 to 5 months, the Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast will undergo further revieR
SANDAG, the Economic Prosperity Advisory Committee, and other interested parties. The Econo
Prosperity Committee will evaluate the consistency between the Regionwide Forecast and
recommendations contained in SANDAG’s Economic Prosperity Strategy, focusing on the types of j
being created and the region’s future standard of living. A Final 2020 Regionwide Forecast 1
incorporate the comments received during the review and any new information that becomes availabl
In November, the Board’s Growth Management Subcommittee will begin discussing the second ph
of the forecasting process, the 2020 CitiedCounty Forecast. Staff will be evaluating the land 1
transportation, environmental, and fiscal impacts of alternative growth patterns. From this analysis,
Regional Growth Management Technical Committee and the Board’s Growth Managen
Subcommittee will recommend a 2020 CitiedCounty Forecast to the full Board in the Spring 1998.
Conclusion
The 2020 Regionwide Florecast identifies challenges facing the region as it moves into &e 21”‘ cent1
It also helps monitor the region’s success in meeting these challenges.
Projects such as the City of San Diego’s Economic Development Strategy and SANDAG’s Econol
Prosperity Strategy are directed toward finding ways to develop and maintain a strong and heal,
economy and to raise our standard of living. The 2020 regionwide forecast can help determine the b
strategies for achieving these goals.
Several regional and local agencies and groups, including SANDAG, also are working on plans to h
maintain other aspects of the region’s quality of life such as preserving open space and sensitive hab
areas, cleaning up our air, ensuring a high quality and reliable water supply, and providing an effici
and effective transportation system. A new financing element is being added to the Gro\
Management Strategy that addresses the public costs of future development and the financing of neec
infrastructure and facilities. Work also is underway to further develop, better articulate, and integr
the components of a long-term vision for the region.
Executive @c Director
Attachment
Key Staff Contact: Jeff Tayman, 595-5374; e-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us
Funds are Budgeted in Overall Work Program #102.07
THE.SUL R
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0 Attachment 1 a
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
San Diego Region, 7995 - 2020
Chanae 1995-202
1995 2005 2020 Absolute Per
Total Population 2,669,200 3,125,900 3,826,900 1,157,700
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
Asian & Other
608,700 849,000 1,272,500
1,665,100 1,766,200 1,872,200
163,700 185,000 214,600
231,700 325,700 467,600
Under Age 18
Age 18 to 34
Age 35 to 64
Age 65 and Over
684,900 808,200 923,900
769,500 746,400 945,700
912,800 1,223,600 1,391,200
302,000 347,800 566,100
663,800 1
207,100
50,900
235,900 1
239,000
176,200
478,400
264,l 00
Uniformed Military 101,900 101,900 101,900 0
Total Housing Units 996,700 1,121,900 1,402,500 405,800
Single Family 581,900 660,400 819,900 238,000
Multiple Family 368,200 41 3,500 531,600 163,400
Mobile Homes 46,500 48,000 51,000 4,500
Occupied Housing Units 934,400 1,059,700 1,321,000 386,600
Household Size 2.75 2.85 2.80 0.05
Vacancy Rate 6.3% 5.5% 5.8% -0.5%
Total Labor Force 1,226,200 1,480,700 1,831,700 605,500
Unemployment Rate 6.4% 5.3% 5.4% -1 .O%
Civilian Jobs 1,085,000 1,316,900 1,625,000 540,000
Agriculture & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Comm-
unication, Utilities
Trade
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate
Sewices
Government
Self-Employed & Domestics
11,100
43,600
11 4,900
37,400
229,500
55,800
31 0,900
186,200
95,600
11,500
55,500
11 6,700
43,700
299,100
72,700
392,300
21 0,500
11 4,700
12,200
71,500
11 5,800
48,900
398,300
95,500
493,700
242,200
146,700
1,100
27,900
900
11,500
168,800
39,700
182,800
56,000
51,100
Real Per Capita Income (96$) $22,700 $23,700 $26,600 $3,900
Source: Preliminary 2020 Regionwide Forecast, San Diego Association of Governments, October 1997.
This forecast is under review and has been accepted for distribution by the SANDAG Board of Directors.