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Home My WebLink About2009-08-18; City Council; 19949; SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast& \ AB# MTG ^Bfc&y^ ) CITY OF CARLSBAD -AGENDA BILL £ /\v 19,949 08/18/09 DEPT. CM SANDAG 2050 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST DEPT. HEAD ft CITYATTY. M CITYMGR. (jjl \Q \ £.*^ RECOMMENDED ACTION: To receive a presentation from SANDAG regarding the 2050 Regional Growth Forecast. ITEM EXPLANATION: As the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the San Diego Region, SANDAG prepares a regional growth forecast every four years. The forecast is prepared through a collaborative process that involves input from local jurisdictions, citizens and elected officials. Over the past three decades the forecasts that have been prepared have been accurate and have served as a valuable planning tool for regional and local infrastructure providers such as transportation agencies, school districts and water suppliers. SANDAG is currently developing a forecast extending to year 2050. The 2050 Regional Growth Forecast will be the first step in developing the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). As part of the RTP, the Forecast will serve as the basis for the region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy. The Forecast will also be used in developing the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) and updating the next Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). The completed Forecast will support the local land use, capital improvement, and water resource planning efforts throughout the region. FISCAL IMPACT: None. EXHIBITS: 1. July 24, 2009 Memo from SANDAG Board Chair Lori Holt regarding 2050 Regional Growth Forecast. DEPARTMENT CONTACT: Sheila R. Cobian (760) 434-2959, sheila.cobian@carlsbadca.gov FOR CITY CLERKS USE ONLY. COUNCIL ACTION: APPROVED DENIED CONTINUED WITHDRAWN AMENDED D D D D D CONTINUED TO DATE SPECIFIC CONTINUED TO DATE UNKNOWN RETURNED TO STAFF OTHER -SEE MINUTES n JSn n 40? B Street Suite 800 San Diego, CA 92101-4231 (619)699-1900 Fax (619) 699-1905 www.sandag.org MEMBER AGENCIES Otiesof Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronach Del Mar ElCajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach LaMesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee So/ana Beach Vista and County of San Diego ADVISORY MEMBERS Imperial County California Department of Transportation Metropolitan Transit System North County Transit District United States Department of Defense San Diego Unified Port District San Diego County Water Authority Southern California Tribal Chairmen's Association Mexico July 24, 2009 File Number 3100900 TO: ( JjbrrDjjego Region Cities and County FROM: ""^Ste/or Lori Holt Pfeiler, SANDAG Board Chair SUBJECT: 2050 Regional Growth forecast In its role as the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the San Diego region, SANDAG prepares a regional growth forecast every four years. The regional forecast is largely based on local land use plans and policies, and is meant to reasonably identify where growth is projected to occur in the region over the long term. The forecast is completed through a multi-step, collaborative process that involves input from local jurisdictions (in particular, the planning and community development directors who serve on the Regional Planning Technical Working Group (TWG)), citizens, and elected officials. In addition to local outreach, SANDAG staff conducts peer review by outside experts including demographers, economists, developers, and natural resource managers to evaluate economic and demographic assumptions about fertility, migration, inflation, and other indicators. Over the past three decades, this collaborative process has resulted in forecasts that have been quite accurate. As such, SANDAG forecasts have served as a valuable planning tool for regional and local infrastructure providers such as transportation agencies, school districts, water suppliers, and others. SANDAG currently is developing a forecast extending to 2050. The 2050 Regional Growth Forecast1 will be the first step in developing the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). As part of the RTP, the 2050 forecast will serve as the basis for the region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy. The forecast also will be used in developing the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) and updating the next Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). Finally, as with past forecasts, the 2050 Forecast also will support local land use, capital improvement, and water resource planning efforts throughout the region. 2050 Growth: Change and Challenges Previous forecasts have consistently shown that the San Diego region will continue to grow although at reduced rates in the future. This forecast is no different and preliminary draft projections suggest that the region will 1 SANDAG denotes forecasts by a sequential series number. The current working forecast is known as the Series 12:2050 Regional Growth Forecast. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 —^-"Population ••Housing —o—Jobs Figure 1. Draft 2050 Growth Projections for San Diego Region approach 4.4 million residents, 1.9 million jobs, and 1.5 million housing units by 2050 (see Figure 1.) Most of the projected residential growth can be accommodated based on adopted general plans and policies; however, draft projections show the region's housing demand exceeds planned housing capacity before 2050. Based on land use and general plan input from the TWG, draft analysis indicates that local plans would be able to accommodate more than the 500,000 additional jobs projected by 2050, but would come up short in planned housing, with capacity for only 380,000 units out of the 450,000 projected. This results in a projected shortfall of 70,000 housing units (approximately 15 percent) by 2050. This analysis is based on information from existing general plans, including the County of San Diego draft plan update, areas considered most likely for redevelopment based on local input, and information on natural constraints to development, such as steep slopes, habitat, and floodplains, as well as policies such as parking requirements, setbacks, and existing buildings and infrastructure, that influence future development and redevelopment potential. Initial economic projections show strong growth in real per capita income and stable, diversified employment growth over the next four decades. While there is sufficient capacity for job growth, continued economic development in the region is contingent upon providing opportunities to house San Diego's future labor force, as indicated in the SANDAG Regional Economic Prosperity Strategy. Important Considerations for the 2050 Forecast As a result of Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008), the SANDAG forecast shall "identify areas within the region sufficient to house all the population of the region...over the course of the planning period of the regional transportation plan."2 Further, in order to avoid additional state review during the RHNA process, the population forecast also must be "within a range of 3 percent of the total regional population forecast...over the same time period by the [California] Department of Finance."3 At this point, the SANDAG 2050 projection of 4.4 million residents fails within 3 percent of the Department of Finance projection (4.5 million). Currently adopted general plans and certain draft updates allow capacity to provide housing opportunities for about 85 percent of the housing demand projected for the region. Recognizing that many of the region's general plans will be updated at least once between now and 2050, SANDAG staff has been working with each jurisdiction through the TWG since October 2008 to identify opportunities to accommodate the 70,000 housing units shortfall in the last 10 to 15 years of the forecast. 2 California Senate Bill 375, Section 4 (b)(2)(B)(ii). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008.3 California Senate Bill 375, Section 8 (b). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008. Recommendations from the TWG and the SANDAG Regional Planning Committee, Transportation Committee, and Board of Directors To ensure local input, SANDAG staff has been working with local planning directors, through the TWG, to identify a series of land use scenarios that could bridge the gap between the horizon year of local general plans and the 2050 forecast year. Twelve scenarios and their variants were generated through a series of workshops and meetings with the TWG. The TWG reviewed each scenario in detail with a focus on selecting alternatives that were reasonable based on knowledge of local plans and market conditions, as well as alternatives that align with regional goals described in approved plans such as the RCP and RTF. Based on those objectives, at its May meeting, the TWG recommended that SANDAG staff continue to examine the following land use scenarios: • Maximum general plan development/redevelopment regionwide • Density increases in transit investment areas • Redevelopment near high-frequency transit stations • Plan updates in Smart Growth Opportunity Areas (SGOAs) • Inclusion of draft plans in the forecast, at jurisdiction's discretion • Jurisdiction-specific options, not listed above These alternatives also were presented to the SANDAG Regional Planning and Transportation Committees. Both groups recommended that these alternatives be studied further. Recognizing that one size does not fit all jurisdictions in our diverse region, the SANDAG Board of Directors directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to determine which (if any) of the above options provides a suitable 2050 land use scenario for that jurisdiction. Next Steps To have the best chance of meeting the schedule set for completing the RTP, the regional growth forecast process must move ahead. To help facilitate the forecast process, the SANDAG Board of Directors has directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to develop the 2050 growth forecast. Each jurisdiction will have the option to consider one of the proposed 2050 scenarios (listed above) or to provide a substitute scenario. Upon collecting information from each jurisdiction, SANDAG staff proposes to produce a draft subregional forecast in late 2009 that would be shared with each jurisdiction for comment and review. The final forecast is expected to be presented to the SANDAG Board of Directors in early 2010 for use in the 2050 RTP. KKU/BJA/dsn l\