HomeMy WebLinkAbout2009-09-15; City Council; 19949; SANDAG 2050 regional growth forecastCITY OF CARLSBAD - AGENDA BILL
AB# 19.949
MTG. 08/18/09
DEPT. CM
SANDAG 2050 REGIONAL
GROWTH FORECAST
DEPT. HEAD
CITY ATTY.
CITY MGR.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
To receive a presentation from SANDAG regarding the 2050 Regional Growth Forecast.
ITEM EXPLANATION:
As the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the San Diego Region, SANDAG prepares a
regional growth forecast every four years. The forecast is prepared through a collaborative
process that involves input from local jurisdictions, citizens and elected officials. Over the
past three decades the forecasts that have been prepared have been accurate and have
served as a valuable planning tool for regional and local infrastructure providers such as
transportation agencies, school districts and water suppliers.
SANDAG is currently developing a forecast extending to year 2050. The 2050 Regional
Growth Forecast will be the first step in developing the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan
(RTP). As part of the RTP, the Forecast will serve as the basis for the region's first
Sustainable Communities Strategy. The Forecast will also be used in developing the
Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) and updating the next Regional
Comprehensive Plan (RCP). The completed Forecast will support the local land use, capital
improvement, and water resource planning efforts throughout the region.
FISCAL IMPACT:
None.
EXHIBITS:
1. July 24, 2009 Memo from SANDAG Board Chair Lori Holt regarding 2050 Regional
Growth Forecast.
DEPARTMENT CONTACT: Sheila R. Cobian (760) 434-2959, sheila.cobian@carlsbadca.gov
FOR CITY CLERKS USE ONLY.
COUNCIL ACTION: APPROVED
DENIED
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RETURNED TO STAFF
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Council received tbe report.
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401 B Street Suite 800
San Diego. CA 92101-4231
(619)699-1900
Fax (619) 699-1905
www.sandag.org
MEMBER AGENOES
Cities of
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and
County of San Diego
ADVISORY MEMBERS
Imperial County
California Department
of Transportation
Metropolitan
Transit System
North County
Transit District
United States
Department of Defense
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Unified fort District
San Diego County
Water Authority
Southern California
Tribal Chairmen's Association
Mexico
July 24, 2009 File Number 3100900
TO: ( «nTDjego Region Cities and County
FROM: '"^Wtafor Lori Holt Pfeiler, SANDAG Board Chair
SUBJECT: 2050 Regional Growth forecast
In its role as the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the San Diego region,
SANDAG prepares a regional growth forecast every four years. The regional
forecast is largely based on local land use plans and policies, and is meant to
reasonably identify where growth is projected to occur in the region over the
long term. The forecast is completed through a multi-step, collaborative
process that involves input from local jurisdictions (in particular, the planning
and community development directors who serve on the Regional Planning
Technical Working Group (TWG)), citizens, and elected officials. In addition to
local outreach, SANDAG staff conducts peer review by outside experts
including demographers, economists, developers, and natural resource
managers to evaluate economic and demographic assumptions about fertility,
migration, inflation, and other indicators.
Over the past three decades, this collaborative process has resulted in forecasts
that have been quite accurate. As such, SANDAG forecasts have served as a
valuable planning tool for regional and local infrastructure providers such as
transportation agencies, school districts, water suppliers, and others.
SANDAG currently is developing a forecast extending to 2050. The 2050
Regional Growth Forecast1 will be the first step in developing the 2050
Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). As part of the RTP, the 2050 forecast will
serve as the basis for the region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy. The
forecast also will be used in developing the Regional Housing Needs
Assessment (RHNA) and updating the next Regional Comprehensive Plan
(RCP). Finally, as with past forecasts, the 2050 Forecast also will support local
land use, capital improvement, and water resource planning efforts
throughout the region.
2050 Growth: Change and Challenges
Previous forecasts have consistently shown that the San Diego region will
continue to grow although at reduced rates in the future. This forecast is no
different and preliminary draft projections suggest that the region will
' SANDAG denotes forecasts by a sequential series number. The current working forecast is
known as the Series 12: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
—^—Population ••Housing ••Jobs
Figure 1. Draft 2050 Growth Projections for San Diego Region
approach 4.4 mitlion residents, 1.9 million jobs, and 1.5 million housing units by 2050 (see Figure 1.)
Most of the projected residential growth can be accommodated based on adopted general plans
and policies; however, draft projections show the region's housing demand exceeds planned
housing capacity before 2050.
Based on land use and general plan input from the TWG, draft analysis indicates that local plans
would be able to accommodate more
than the 500,000 additional jobs
projected by 2050, but would come up
short in planned housing, with capacity
for only 380,000 units out of the 450,000
projected. This results in a projected
shortfall of 70,000 housing units
(approximately 15 percent) by 2050.
This analysis is based on information
from existing general plans, including
the County of San Diego draft plan
update, areas considered most likely for
redevelopment based on local input,
and information on natural constraints
to development, such as steep slopes,
habitat, and fioodplains, as well as
policies such as parking requirements, setbacks, and existing buildings and infrastructure, that
influence future development and redevelopment potential.
Initial economic projections show strong growth in real per capita income and stable, diversified
employment growth over the next four decades. While there is sufficient capacity for job growth,
continued economic development in the region is contingent upon providing opportunities to
house San Diego's future labor force, as indicated in the SANDAG Regional Economic Prosperity
Strategy.
Important Considerations for the 2050 Forecast
As a result of Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008), the SANDAG forecast shall "identify areas within the
region sufficient to house all the population of the region...over the course of the planning period
of the regional transportation plan."2 Further, in order to avoid additional state review during the
RHNA process, the population forecast also must be "within a range of 3 percent of the total
regional population forecast...over the same time period by the [California] Department of
Finance."3 At this point, the SANDAG 2050 projection of 4.4 million residents falls within 3 percent
of the Department of Finance projection (4.5 million).
Currently adopted general plans and certain draft updates allow capacity to provide housing
opportunities for about 85 percent of the housing demand projected for the region. Recognizing
that many of the region's general plans will be updated at least once between now and 2050,
SANDAG staff has been working with each jurisdiction through the TWG since October 2008 to
identify opportunities to accommodate the 70,000 housing units shortfall in the last 10 to 15 years
of the forecast.
2 California Senate Bill 375, Section 4 (b)(2)(B)(ii). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008.
3 California Senate Bill 375, Section 8 (b). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008.
Recommendations from the TWG and the SANDAG Regional Planning Committee,
Transportation Committee, and Board of Directors
To ensure local input, SANDAG staff has been working with local planning directors, through the
TWG, to identify a series of land use scenarios that could bridge the gap between the horizon year
of local general plans and the 2050 forecast year. Twelve scenarios and their variants were
generated through a series of workshops and meetings with the TWG. The TWG reviewed each
scenario in detail with a focus on selecting alternatives that were reasonable based on knowledge
of local plans and market conditions, as well as alternatives that align with regional goals described
in approved plans such as the RCP and RTP. Based on those objectives, at its May meeting, the TWG
recommended that SANDAG staff continue to examine the following land use scenarios:
• Maximum general plan development/redevelopment regionwide
• Density increases in transit investment areas
• Redevelopment near high-frequency transit stations
• Plan updates in Smart Growth Opportunity Areas (SGOAs)
• Inclusion of draft plans in the forecast, at jurisdiction's discretion
• Jurisdiction-specific options, not listed above
These alternatives also were presented to the SANDAG Regional Planning and Transportation
Committees, Both groups recommended that these alternatives be studied further.
Recognizing that one size does not fit all jurisdictions in our diverse region, the SANDAG Board of
Directors directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to determine which (if any) of the
above options provides a suitable 2050 land use scenario for that jurisdiction.
Next Steps
To have the best chance of meeting the schedule set for completing the RTP, the regional growth
forecast process must move ahead. To help facilitate the forecast process, the SANDAG Board of
Directors has directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to develop the 2050 growth
forecast. Each jurisdiction will have the option to consider one of the proposed 2050 scenarios
(listed above) or to provide a substitute scenario.
Upon collecting information from each jurisdiction, SANDAG staff proposes to produce a draft
subregional forecast in late 2009 that would be shared with each jurisdiction for comment and
review. The final forecast is expected to be presented to the SANDAG Board of Directors in early
2010 for use in the 2050 RTP.
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1
Our Region. Our Future.
2050 Growth Forecast
September 15, 2009
2
Topics
Goals and purpose of the 2050 forecast
Regional growth projections and estimated planned
capacity
Carlsbad Details
Addressing the capacity shortfall
3
Goals of the SANDAG Forecast
1.Produce a regionwide growth forecast that is accurate
and reasonable.
2.Produce a subregional forecast based on local plans,
policies, and an understanding of likely development
patterns in the future that could reasonably
accommodate projected growth within the region.
4
Purpose of SANDAG Forecast
5
DRAFT Results:
Population, Jobs, Housing
3.1
4.4
1.5
1.1
1.4
1.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050population, jobs, housing (in millions)Population Housing Jobs
6
DRAFT Results: Population Change
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050births, deaths, and migrationBirths Domestic Migration International Migration Deaths
7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Millions
Actual Series 4 Series 5 Series 6 Series 7
Series 8 Series 9 Series 10 Series 11
Population forecasts have been very
accurate
8
200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000
Under 5
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84 Male Female
Populations:
2008 = 3.1 mil.
2050 = 4.4 mil.
DRAFT Results: Age Structure
9
Steps in the Forecasting Process:
Phase 2:
Alternative land-use
scenario for 2050
Phase 1:
Existing Plans
and Policies
10
Estimating Existing Plans and Policies
(EP) Housing and Job Capacity
Starts with existing general plans
Includes constraints to development:
Natural constraints: habitat, steep slopes, floodplains
Built environment: existing buildings and infrastructure
Policies: parking requirements, setbacks, etc…
Other local considerations: redevelopment zones
11
Anticipated Growth and Estimated
Capacity Regionwide
2050 projection: 450,000 additional housing units
550,000 additional jobs
Existing
(2008)
Projected
Growth*
Plan
Capacity*Difference
Jobs 1,500,000 500,000 900,000 +400,000
Housing 1,140,000 450,000 380,000 -70,000
*NOTE: Draft is current as of July 18, 2009.
12
Estimated Local Planned Housing
Capacity: 2008
13
Remaining Local Planned Housing
Capacity: 2030
14
Remaining Local Planned Housing
Capacity: 2040
15
Capacity Beyond Plan Horizons?
(2040-2050)
16
The Challenge
How do we identify capacity within our region for the
70,000 housing unit shortfall by 2050?
We are asking each jurisdiction to provide guidance on
where additional capacity might occur in their jurisdiction
through plan updates and redevelopment in the future.
These later-year scenarios will be used to guide plans for
later-year transportation investments in the 2050
Regional Transportation Plan.
17
Carlsbad’s Estimated Planned Capacity
This estimate is based on
adopted city plans, and
assumes:
Redevelopment in selected
locations
Constraints to development
Presumes most future
development occurs below
maximum plan density
17
6,500
25,600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Housing Jobs
Plan Capacity*
2008 Inventory
*NOTE: Draft is current as of August 17, 2009.
18
Carlsbad in 40 Years:
Past, Present, Future
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
Population 1970-present Housing 1970-present
Through annexations, Carlsbad has
grown from 7.5 sq. mi. to 40 sq. mi.
40 years ago: There was no
Legoland, Coaster, or Carlsbad
Village Station
19
Consider including
draft plan updates Select areas where development and/or
redevelopment could reach 100% of plan
density (density bonus, redevelopment, etc…)
Identify areas within the jurisdiction
that have development and/or
redevelopment potential in the future Align local plans with the
locally-selected Smart
Growth Opportunity Areas
Scenario Ideas for 2050 Forecast
Consider redevelopment potential on
planned multi-family and/or
commercial lands near transit stations
and/or transit investment areas
Consider an option for
this jurisdiction that is
not listed above
20
Smart Growth
Concept Map
21
North County Subregional Map
22
July –Sept. 2009: Meet with councils/board around the
region (as requested)
Sept. –Dec. 2009: Develop draft 2050 growth forecast
Jan. –Feb. 2010: Complete final forecast
Proposed Next Steps:
23
SANDAG staff would like your authorization to work with
planning staff in Carlsbad to identify land use changes
that might reasonably be anticipated to occur in Carlsbad
over the next forty years.
This information will be used for the 2050 Regional
Transportation Plan, which is updated every four years.
Request for Feedback:
24
Our Region. Our Future.
2050 Growth Forecast