HomeMy WebLinkAbout2011-06-21; City Council; 20589 PART2B; 2010 UPDATE SD COUNTY HAZARD MITIGATION PLANSECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
4.3.5 Rain-Induced Landslide
4.3.5.1 Nature of Hazard
Landslides occur when masses of rock, earth, or debris move down a slope, including rock falls,
deep failure of slopes, and shallow debris flows. Landslides are influenced by human activity
(mining and construction of buildings, railroads, and highways) and natural factors (geology,
precipitation, and topography). Frequently they accompany other natural hazards such as floods,
earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Although landslides sometimes occur during earthquake
activity, earthquakes are rarely their primary cause. The most common cause of a landslide is an
increase in the down slope gravitational stress applied to slope materials (oversteepening). This
may be produced either by natural processes or by man's activities. Undercutting of a valley wall
by stream erosion or of a sea cliff by wave erosion are ways in which slopes may be naturally
oversteeped. Other ways include excessive rainfall or irrigation on a cliff or slope. Another type
of soil failure is slope wash, the erosion of slopes by surface-water runoff. The intensity of slope
wash is dependent on the discharge and velocity of surface runoff and on the resistance of surface
materials to erosion. Surface runoff and velocity is greatly increased in urban and suburban areas
due to the presence of roads, parking lots, and buildings, which have zero filtration capacities and
provide generally smooth surfaces that do not slow down runoff.
Mudflows are another type of soil failure, and are defined as flows or rivers of liquid mud down a
hillside. They occur when water accumulates under the ground, usually following long and heavy
rainfalls. If there is no brush, tree, or ground cover to hold the soil, mud will form and flow
down-slope.
4.3.5.2 Disaster History
Landslides and landslide prone sedimentary formations are present throughout the coastal plain of
western San Diego County. Landslides also occur in the granitic mountains of East San Diego
County, although they are less prevalent. Ancient landslides are those with subdued topographic
expressions that suggest movements at least several hundred and possibly several thousands of
years before present. Many of these landslides are thought to have occurred under much wetter
climatic conditions than at present. Recent landslides are those with fresh or sharp geomorphic
expressions suggestive of active (ongoing) movement or movement within the past several
decades. Reactivations of existing landslides can be triggered by disturbances such as heavy
rainfall, seismic shaking and/or grading. Many recent landslides are thought to be reactivations of
ancient landslides.
Areas where significant landslides have occurred are: the Otay Mesa area, Oceanside, Mt.
Soledad in La Jolla, Sorrento Valley, in the vicinity of Rancho Bernardo and Rancho Penasquitos,
along the sides of Mission Gorge (San Carlos and Tierrasanta), western Santee, the Fletcher Hills
area of western El Cajon, western Camp Pendleton, and the east side of Point Loma. Some of the
more significant historical coastal bluff landslides have occurred along north La Jolla (Black's
Beach), Torrey Pines, Del Mar, and Encinitas. Landslides tend to be more widespread in these
areas where the underlying sedimentary formations contain weak claystone beds that are more
susceptible to sliding.
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UNINCORPORATED
S.D.COUNTY
RAIN-INDUCED
LANDSLIDE
COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
LEGEND:
Soil Slip Susceptibility
Moderate
Landslide Susceptibility
^ Most Susceptible
Marginally Susceptible
Geohazards Layers
LANDSLIDES
W% SLIDE PRONE FORMATIONS
STEEP SLOPES (+25%)
Gabbroic Soils > 15%
Base Layers:
Incorporated City Boundary
/\S Freeways
Major Roads
Z3 Lakes
OVERVIEW MAP:
LOS ANGELES/ SAN BERNARDINO
RANG?
FIGURE NO. 4.3.5
l "f Ttai-ii.ie and l.anrl I •-•
A
16
I Miles
SOURCES. SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries, Rivers. Lakes. Landslides.Slide-Prone Formations]
County Of San Diego (Soil-Slip Susceptibility. Landslide Susceptibility. Steep Slopes, Gabbroic Soils)
THIS MAP/DATA IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED,
INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESSFOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
Note This product may contain information from the SANDAG Regional Information System which cannot
be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG This product may contain information reproduced
with permission granted by RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® to SanGIS This map is copyrighted by
RAND MCNALLV & COMPANY® It is unlawful to copy or reproduce all or any part thereof whether foi
personal use or resale, without the prior, written permission of RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY®
Copyright SanGIS2009- All Rights Reserved Full text of this legal
notice can be found at. http //www sangis org/Legal_Notice htm
KVFire Servicesftasks/OES HazMil Mitigation Plan/RainlnducedLands!ide/COSD_RamlnducedLandslide mxd
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Remedial grading and other mitigation measures have stabilized many but not all landslides in
urban areas and other developments within San Diego County. Published geologic maps and
other sources of information pertaining to landslide occurrence may not differentiate between
known or suspected landslides. Moreover, published landslide maps (such as those used to
compile the landslide areas for this effort) are not always updated or revised to reflect landslides
that have been stabilized, or in some cases completely removed. The landslide maps for this study
have been compiled for planning and emergency responses preparedness, and the compilation
sources may not reflect current or existing conditions.
Specific information on historic events is not readily available. The only significant landslide
that has occurred since the adoption of the original plan was in October, 2007. The event
occurred in La Jolla and resulted in the evacuation of 111 homes, seven of which sustained
significant damage with an additional 40 being uninhabitable as the result of the instability of the
ground beneath them. The loss was estimated to exceed $25 million.
4.3.5.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude
Data used to determine landslide risk were steep slope (greater than 25%), soil series data
(SANDAG, based on USGS 1970s series), and soil-slip susceptibility from USGS. Because
landslide data in GIS format was not available for the entire county, a model was run using USGS
soils and steep slope data to determine landslide risk areas for the entire County. Tan Landslide
Susceptibility Maps that depict steep slope areas, landslide formations, and landslide susceptible
areas based on a combination of slope, soils and geologic instability were also used in the
analysis (refer to Appendix B for complete data matrix).
As shown in Figure 4.3.5, the location and extent of landslide hazard areas are generally
concentrated along canyons near the coastal areas with steep slopes. The western portion of the
county shows the soil-slip susceptibility data, while the eastern portion of the county shows the
results of the model used to determine landslide risk for areas that were not included in the soil-
slip susceptibility model. Housing development on marginal lands and in unstable but highly
desirable coastal areas has increased the threat from landslides throughout San Diego County.
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4.3.6 Liquefaction
4.3.6.1 Nature of Hazard
Liquefaction is the phenomenon that occurs when ground shaking causes loose soils to lose
strength and act like viscous fluid. Liquefaction causes two types of ground failure: lateral spread
and loss of bearing strength. Lateral spreads develop on gentle slopes and entails the sidelong
movement of large masses of soil as an underlying layer liquefies. Loss of bearing strength results
when the soil supporting structures liquefies and causes structures to collapse.
4.3.6.2 Disaster History
Liquefaction is not known to have occurred historically in San Diego County, although
liquefaction has occurred in the Imperial Valley in response to large earthquakes (Magnitude 6 or
greater) originating in that area. Although San Diego is one of several major California cities in
seismically active regions, ground failures or damage to structures has not occurred as a
consequence of liquefaction. Historically, seismic shaking levels have not been sufficient to
trigger liquefaction. Paleoseismic indicators of liquefaction have been recognized locally, and
several pre-instrumental (prior to common use of seismographs) earthquakes could have been
severe enough to cause at least some liquefaction.
4.3.6.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude
Recognizing active faults in the region, and the presence of geologically young, unconsolidated
sediments and hydraulic fills, the potential for liquefaction to occur has been long recognized in
the San Diego area. The regions of San Diego Bay and vicinity are thought to be especially
vulnerable. The potential exists in areas of loose soils and/or shallow groundwater in earthquake
fault zones throughout the County. Figure 4.3.6 displays the location and extent of areas with a
risk of liquefaction.
Data used to profile liquefaction hazard included probabilistic PGA data from the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) and a Scenario Earthquake Shake map for Rose Canyon from the
California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), along with existing liquefaction hazard areas
from local maps (refer to appendix B for complete data matrix). Liquefaction hazards were
modeled as collateral damages of earthquakes using HAZUS-MH, which uses base information
and NEHRP soils data to derive probabilistic peak ground accelerations much like the PGA map
from USGS. Soils were considered because liquefaction risk may be amplified depending on the
type of soil found in a given area. The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
(NEHRP) rates soils from hard to soft, and give the soils ratings from Type A through Type E,
with the hardest soils being Type A, and the softest soils rated at Type E. Liquefaction risk was
considered high if there were soft soils (Types D or E) present within an active fault zone.
Liquefaction risk was considered low if the PGA risk value was less than 0.3, and hard soils were
present (Types A-C). For example, an area may lie in a PGA zone of 0.2, which would be a low
liquefaction risk in hard soils identified by the NEHRP. However, if that same PGA value is
found within a soft soil such as Type D or E, a PGA of 0.2, when multiplied by 1.4 or 1.7
(amplification values for type D and E soil, shown below), would become a PGA value of at least
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0.28 to 0.3. This would increase the liquefaction risk to high. Areas where soil types D or E are
located are illustrated in Figure 4.3.6.
Soil Amplification Factors
PGA
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Soil Type
A
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
B
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
c
1.20
1.20
1.10
1.00
1.00
D
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.10
1.00
E
2.50
1.70
1.20
0.90
0.80
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SANvji-vii VS
MARCOS ^CAESCONDIDO
INCORPORATED
S.D.COUNTY UNINCORPORATED
S.D.COUNTYSOUANA
BEACH
\ DEL
,PMAR
CHULA
AVISTA
IMPERI
BEAC
LIQUEFACTION
COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
LEGEND:
Earthquake Faults:
Fault
^^— Zoned Earthquake Fault
Liquefaction Layers
H Liquefaction Layers
Peak Ground Acceleration (2% in 50 yrs)
0.18 - 0.5 (Low Liquefaction Risk)
0.51 -1.60 (High Liquefaction Risk)
Base Layers
| | Incorporated City Boundary
/\/ Freeways
Major Roads
Streams
Lakes
OVERVIEW MAP:
FIGURE NO. 4.3.6
Depanmmt of Pta™*nt and I-am) I «•
DPLU CIS J*
3.75 7.5 15I Miles
SOURCES SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries. Rivs
County of San Diego (Liquefaction Layers)
USGS (Peak Ground Acceleration)
State of California (Earthquake Faults)
THIS MAP/DATA IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED
INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS
FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
Note This product may contain information from the SANDAG Regional Information System which cannot
be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG This product may contain information reproduced
with permission granted by RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® to SanGIS This map is copyrighted by
RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® It is unlawful to copy or reproduce all or any part thereof, whether for
personal use or resale, without the prior, written permission of RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY®
Copyright SanGIS 2009 -All Rights Reserved Full text of this legal
notice can be found at http /Mww sangis org/Legal_Notice htm
K./Fire Services/tasks/OES HazMit Mitigation PlarVLiquefaction/COSDJ-iquefaction mxd
SECTIOIJFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.3.7 Structure/Wildfire Fire
4.3.7.1 Nature of Hazard
A structural fire hazard is one where there is a risk of a fire starting in an urban setting and
spreading uncontrollably from one building to another across several city blocks, or within hi-rise
buildings.
A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire spreading through vegetative fuels and exposing or possibly
consuming structures. They often begin unnoticed and spread quickly. Naturally occurring and
non-native species of grasses, brush, and trees fuel wildfires. A wildland fire is a wildfire in an
area in which development is essentially nonexistent, except for roads, railroads, power lines and
similar facilities. An Urban-Wildland/Urban Interface fire is a wildfire in a geographical area
where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with wildland or vegetative
fuels. Significant development in San Diego County is located along canyon ridges at the
wildland/urban interface. Areas that have experienced prolonged droughts or are excessively dry
are at risk of wildfires.
People start more than 80 percent of wildfires, usually as debris burns, arson, or carelessness.
Lightening strikes are the next leading cause of wildfires. Wildfire behavior is based on three primary
factors: fuel, topography, and weather. The type, and amount of fuel, as well as its burning qualities
and level of moisture affect wildfire potential and behavior. The continuity of fuels, expressed in both
horizontal and vertical components is also a determinant of wildfire potential and behavior.
Topography is important because it affects the movement of air (and thus the fire) over the ground
surface. The slope and shape of terrain can change the speed at which the fire travels, and the ability of
firefighters to reach and extinguish the fire. Weather affects the probability of wildfire and has a
significant effect on its behavior. Temperature, humidity and wind (both short and long term) affect
the severity and duration of wildfires.
San Diego County's topography consists of a semi-arid coastal plain and rolling highlands,
which, when fueled by shrub overgrowth, occasional Santa Ana winds and high temperatures,
creates an ever-present threat of wildland fire. Extreme weather conditions such as high
temperature, low humidity, and/or winds of extraordinary force may cause an ordinary fire to
expand into one of massive proportions.
Large fires would have several indirect effects beyond those that a smaller, more localized fire
would create. These may include air quality and health issues, road closures, business closures,
and others that increase the potential losses that can occur from this hazard. Modeling for a larger
type of fire would be difficult, but the consequences of the most recent San Diego fires (Firestorm
of October 2003) should be used as a guide for fire planning and mitigation.
4.3.7.2 Disaster History
Table 4.3-3 lists the most recent major wildfires in San Diego County. Wildland fires prompted
five (5) Proclaimed States of Emergency, and Urban/Intermix Fires prompted three (3)
Proclaimed States of Emergency in the County of San Diego in the period 1950-2007. In October
of 2003 the second-worse wild-land fire in the history of San Diego County destroyed 332,766
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SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
acres of land, 3,239 structures and 17 deaths at a cost of $450M. San Diego County's worst
wildfire occurred in October 2007. At the height of the firestorm there were seven fires burning
within the County. The fires destroyed 369,000 acres (13% of the County), 2,670 structures, 239
vehicles, and two commercial properties. There were 10 civilian deaths, 23 civilian injuries and
10 firefighter injuries. The cost of fire exceeded $1.5 billion. San Diego County's third worst
wildfire in history, known as the Laguna Fire, destroyed thousands of acres in the backcountry in
September of 1970. The fire resulted in the loss or destruction of 383 homes and 1,200 other
structures ($5.7 million); 225,000 acres of trees and other watershed ($30 million); small dams
($3 million); and bridges and roads ($600,000). The total dollar cost of the Laguna Fire was
approximately $40 million.
Table 43-3
Major Wildfires in San Diego County
Larger than 5,000 acres
Fire
Conejos Fire
Laguna Fire
Harmony Fire (Carlsbad,
Elfin Forest, San Marcos)
La Jolla Fire (Palomar Mtn)
Viejas Fire
Gavilan Fire (Fallbrook)
Pines Fire (Julian,
Ranchita)
Cedar Fire
Paradise Fire
Otay Fire
Roblar (Pendleton)
Mataguay Fire*
Horse Fire*
Witch Creek Fire*
Harris Fire*
Poomacha Fire*
Ammo Fire*
Rice Fire*
Date
July 1950
October 1970
October 1996
September
1999
January 2001
February 2002
July 2002
October 2003
October 2003
October 2003
October 2003
July 2004
July 2006
October 2007
October 2007
October 2007
October 2007
October 2007
Acres
Burned
62,000
190,000
8,600
7,800
10,353
6,000
61,690
280,278
57,000
46,291
8,592
8,867
16,681
197,990
90,440
49,410
21,004
9,472
Structures
Destroyed
Not
Available
382
122
2
23
43
45
5,171
415
6
0
2
Not
Available
1,125
255
139
Not
Available
208
Structures
Damaged
Not
Available
Not
Available
142
2
6
13
121
63
15
0
0
0
Not
Available
77
12
Not
Available
Not
Available
Not
Available
Deaths
0
5
1
1
0
0
0
14
2
0
0
0
0
2
5
0
0
0
: Information gathered from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection website
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SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.3.7.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude
CDF-FRAP modeled wildland fire threat for the state of California in 2002. This model was used
in GIS to profile the fire hazard throughout the County, and is described in detail below in the
Vulnerability Assessment portion of this document. This data was updated as requested by the
San Marcos and Escondido jurisdictions, and is reflected in the hazard modeling process and
subsequent mapping (refer to Appendix B for the complete data matrix). Figure 4.3.7 displays the
location and extent of the risk level for wildfire/structure fire throughout the county, and shows
the perimeters of the 2007 fires.
It should be noted that the hazard level depicted within the boundaries of the 2007 Wildfires
(Figure 4.3.7) will change after CDF re-evaluates these very recently burned areas. After this re-
evaluation is complete, it is expected that CDF-FRAP will remodel the fire risk and provide
updated risk maps. These updated maps should be included in future revisions of this plan.
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4-46
STRUCTUREFIRE/WILDFIRE
<~r»i INTY OF SAN DIEGO
HAZARD MOTION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
Wildfire Hazard Level
~j Little or No Threat
Moderate
Very High
Extreme
Fire Perimeters
incorporated City Boundary
Freeways
Major Roads
*& >--J "' i"r- '" " ) •** ^ Jt • V -
UNINCORPORATED
S.D.COUNTY
SOLANA
BEACH ^
DEL
' ^'-'"-JF* - -'~'"f?*«d^JPKfel
Miles
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SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
4.3.8 Manmade Hazards
4.3.8.1 Nature of Hazard
Manmade hazards are distinct from natural hazards in that they result directly from the actions of
people. Two types of manmade hazards can be identified: technological hazards and terrorism.
Technological hazards refer to incidents that can arise from human activities such as the
manufacture, storage, transport, and use of hazardous materials, which include toxic chemicals,
radioactive materials, and infectious substances. Technological hazards are assumed to be
accidental and their consequences unintended. Terrorism, on the other hand, encompasses
intentional, criminal, and malicious acts involving weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) or
conventional weapons. WMDs can involve the deployment of biological, chemical, nuclear, and
radiological weapons. Conventional weapons and techniques include the use of arson, incendiary
explosives, armed attacks, intentional hazardous materials release, and cyber-terrorism (attack via
computer).
Hazardous Materials
Technological hazards involving hazardous material releases can occur at facilities (fixed site) or
along transportation routes (off-site). They can occur as a result of human carelessness,
technological failure, intentional acts, and natural hazards. When caused by natural hazards, these
incidents are known as secondary hazards, whereas intentional acts are terrorism. Hazardous
materials releases, depending on the substance involved and type of release, can directly cause
injuries and death and contaminate air, water, and soils. While the probability of a major release
at any particular facility or at any point along a known transportation corridor is relatively low,
the consequences of releases of these materials can be very serious.
Some hazardous materials present a radiation risk. Radiation is any form of energy propagated as
rays, waves or energetic particles that travel through the air or a material medium. Radioactive
materials are composed of atoms that are unstable. An unstable atom gives off its excess energy
until it becomes stable. The energy emitted is radiation. The process by which an atom changes
from an unstable state to a more stable state by emitting radiation is called radioactive decay or
radioactivity.
Radiological materials have many uses in San Diego County including:
use by doctors to detect and treat serious diseases,
use by educational institutions and companies for research,
use by the military to power large ships and submarines, and
use as a critical base material to help produce the commercial electrical power that is generated
by a nuclear power plant.
Radioactive materials, if handled improperly, or radiation accidentally released into the
environment, can be dangerous because of the harmful effects of certain types of radiation on the
body. The longer a person is exposed to radiation and the closer the person is to the radiation, the
greater the risk. Although radiation cannot be detected by the senses (sight, smell, etc.), it is
easily detected by scientists with sophisticated instruments that can detect even the smallest levels
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SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
of radiation. Under extreme circumstances an accident or intentional explosion involving
radiological materials can cause very serious problems. Consequences may include death, severe
health risks to the public, damage to the environment, and extraordinary loss of, or damage to,
property.
Terrorism
Following a number of serious international and domestic terrorist incidents during the 1990's
and early 2000's, citizens across the United States have paid increased attention to the potential
for deliberate, harmful terrorist actions by individuals or groups with political, social, cultural,
and religious motives. There is no single, universally accepted definition of terrorism, and it can
be interpreted in a variety of ways. However, terrorism is defined in the Code of Federal
Regulations as "...the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to
intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance
of political or social objectives" (28 CFR, Section 0.85). The Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI) further characterizes terrorism as either domestic or international, depending on the origin,
base, and objectives of the terrorist organization. However, the origin of the terrorist or person
causing the hazard is far less relevant to mitigation planning than the hazard itself and its
consequences. Terrorists utilize a wide variety of agents and delivery systems.
4.3.8.2 Disaster History
Hazardous Material Releases
Hazardous materials can include toxic chemicals, radioactive materials, infectious substances,
and hazardous wastes. The State of California defines a hazardous material as a substance that is
toxic, ignitable or flammable, or reactive and/or corrosive. An extremely hazardous material is
defined as a substance that shows high acute or chronic toxicity, carcinogenicity, bio-
accumulative properties, persistence in the environment, or is water reactive (California Code of
Regulations, Title 22). "Hazardous waste," a subset of hazardous materials, is material that is to
be abandoned, discarded, or recycled, and includes chemical, radioactive, and bio-hazardous
waste (including medical waste). An accidental hazardous material release can occur wherever
hazardous materials are manufactured, stored, transported, or used. Such releases can affect
nearby populations and contaminate critical or sensitive environmental areas.
Numerous facilities in San Diego County generate hazardous wastes in addition to storing and
using large numbers of hazardous materials. There are a total of 13,034 sites with permits to store
and maintain chemical, biological and radiological agents, and explosives in the County.
Although the scale is usually small, emergencies involving the release of these substances can
occur daily at both these fixed sites and on the County's streets and roadways. The major transit
corridors of Interstates 5 and 805 have been the locations of the majority of incidents the
Hazardous Incident Response Team (HIRT) has responded to in recent years. In fact, the Unified
San Diego County Emergency Services Organization's Operational Area Emergency Plan notes
in 2000 that 85% of the incidents HIRT responded to were along the 1-5 and 1-805 corridor.
Facilities that use, manufacture, or store hazardous materials in California must comply with
several state and federal regulations. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act
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SICTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment
(SARA Title III), which was enacted in 1986 as a legislative response to airborne releases of
methyl isocyanate at Union Carbide plants in Bhopal, India and in Institute, West Virginia.
SARA Title III, also known as the Emergency Planning and Community-Right-To-Know Act
(EPCRA), directs businesses that handle, store or manufacture hazardous materials in specified
amounts to develop emergency response plans and report releases of toxic chemicals.
Additionally, Section 312 of Title El requires businesses to submit an annual inventory report of
hazardous materials to a state-administering agency. The California legislature passed Assembly
Bill 2185 in 1987, incorporating the provisions of SARA Title III into a state program. The
community right-to-know requirements keep communities abreast of the presence and release of
hazardous wastes at individual facilities.
Table 4.3-4 shows a breakdown by jurisdiction of facilities in the County with permits to store
and maintain chemical, biological and radiological agents, and explosives. Facilities with EPA ID
Numbers are facilities that generate hazardous waste.
Table 43-4
Licensed Hazardous Material Sites by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
_a Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated
Vista
TOTAL
Facilities with County Environmental
Health Hazardous Material Permits
338
726
79
48
742
346
826
43
299
121
376
508
293
5561
485
264
65
1372
542
13,034
Facilities with EPA ID
Numbers
180
356
42
19
378
107
396
23
110
69
198
271
133
2766
270
141
22
556
292
6,329
Facilities with Approved
Hazmat Response Plans
242
400
38
25
532
164
560
30
128
93
241
331
166
3367
361
199
29
894
382
8,182
Additional information about the chemicals handled by manufacturing or processing facilities is
contained in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory (TRI)
database. The TRI is a publicly available EPA database that contains information on toxic
chemical emissions and waste management activities reported by certain industry groups as well
as federal facilities. This inventory was established under EPCRA and expanded by the Pollution
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SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Prevention Act of 1990. Facilities that exceed threshold emissions levels must report TRI
information to the U.S. EPA, the federal enforcement agency for SARA Title HI.
Hazardous materials spills and releases in San Diego County have occurred as a result of
clandestine drug manufacturing; spills from commercial, military and recreational vessels on the
region's waterways; traffic accidents; sewer breaks and overflows; and various
accidents/incidents related to the manufacture, use, and storage of hazardous materials by County
industrial, commercial and government facilities. Although the following emergency response
history for San Diego County chronicles various hazardous materials releases, the incidents do
not necessarily indicate the degree of exposure to the public.
There were 453 hazardous materials incidents in San Diego County in 2008 that required
response by the County Hazardous Incident Response Team (HIRT). Table 4.3-5 indicates the
number of incidents that the HIRT responded to in each jurisdiction in 2008.
Table 43-5
County of San Diego Department of Environmental Health
Hazardous Materials Division HIRT Responses in 2008
City
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated
Vista
TOTAL RESPONSES IN 2008
Number of Hazardous Materials
Responses
16
25
1
0
17
10
8
2
6
2
8
9
7
251
9
6
1
59
14
453
.There has not been significant exposure to the public in San Diego County due to manmade
releases of chemical or biological agents, although there have been several smaller-scale
incidents. Chemical spills and releases from transportation and industrial accidents have resulted
in short-term chemical exposure to individuals in the vicinity of the release. San Diego beaches
4-52
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
are routinely closed because of sewage spills and storm run-off. Bacterial levels can increase
significantly in ocean and bay waters, especially near storm drain, river, and lagoon outlets,
during and after rainstorms. Elevated bacterial levels may continue for a period of up to 3 days
depending upon the intensity of rainfall and volume of runoff. Waters contaminated by urban
runoff may contain human pathogens (bacteria, viruses, or protozoa) that can cause illnesses.
San Diego experienced its first significant E. coli bacteria outbreak in 10 years after patrons ate
tainted food at local area restaurants in 2003. In 1992 and 1993 a similar outbreak occurred in San
Diego County, which resulted in the death of a child after he ate tainted food from a Carlsbad
fast-food restaurant. Additionally, in the early 1980s a hepatitis outbreak associated with poor
food handling techniques resulting in the closure of a major restaurant in Mission Valley and the
implementation of a food-handler certification program by the San Diego County Health
Department.
The only known release of radiological agents in the County was the result of an accident at San
Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS). In 1981, an accidental "ignition" of hydrogen gases
in a holding tank of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) caused an explosion -
which bent the bolts of an inspection hatch on the tank, allowing radioactive gases in the tank to
escape into a radioactive waste room. From there, the radioactive material was released into the
atmosphere. The plant was shut down for several weeks following the event (W.I.S.E. Vol.3 No.4
p.18). This incident occurred during the plant's operation of its Unit 1 generator, which has since
been decommissioned. No serious injuries occurred.
On February 3, 2001 another accident occurred at SONGS when a circuit breaker fault caused a
fire that resulted in a loss of offsite power. Published reports suggest that rolling blackouts during
the same week in California were partially due to the shutdown of the SONGS reactors in
response to the 3-hour fire. Although no radiation was released and no nuclear safety issues were
involved, the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent a Special Inspection Team to the plant
site to investigate the accident.
Terrorism
While San Diego County has not experienced any high profile attacks by groups or individuals
associated with international terrorist organizations, the region has been the site of several
incidents with domestic origins. Most notable is the August 1, 2003 arson attack on a mixed-use
housing and office development under construction in the University City neighborhood. The
blaze, which officials estimate caused around $50 million in damage, was allegedly set by the
Earth Liberation Front, a radical environmentalist group.
San Diego has been linked to the 9-11 attacks in New York City and on the Pentagon; two of the
confirmed hijackers of the commercial aircraft used in the attacks took flight school lessons while
living in San Diego.
San Diego County has received numerous bomb threats to schools, government buildings,
religious sites, and commercial facilities over the years. While the majority of bomb threats are
hoaxes, authorities have been required to mobilize resources and activate emergency procedures
on a fairly regular basis in response.
4-53
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
Other Manmade Disasters
On September 25th, 1978 San Diego was the scene of one of the worst air disasters in the United
States. A mid-air collision between a Cessna 172 and a Pacific Southwest Airlines (PSA) Boeing
727 caused both planes to crash into the North Park neighborhood below. A total of 144 lives
were lost including 7 people on the ground. More than 20 residences were damaged or destroyed.
In 1984, a gunman opened fire in a San Ysidro McDonald's restaurant, killing 21 people. This
event was not considered an act of terrorism as no political or social objectives were associated
with this event.
4.3.8.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude
Information related to the probability and magnitude of manmade hazards is considered sensitive
homeland security related information. Consequently, this information is provided in a separate
confidential document (Attachment A).
4.4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Vulnerability describes how exposed or susceptible to damage an asset is, and depends on an
asset's construction, contents and the economic value of its functions. This vulnerability analysis
predicts the extent of injury and damage that may result from a hazard event of a given intensity
in a given area on the existing and future built environment. Like indirect damages, the
vulnerability of one element of the community is often related to the vulnerability of another.
Indirect effects can be much more widespread and damaging than direct effects. For example,
damage to a major utility line could result in significant inconveniences and business disruption
that would far exceed the cost of repairing the utility line.
4.4.1 Asset Inventory
Hazards that occur in San Diego County can impact critical facilities located in the County. A
critical facility is defined as a facility in either the public or private sector that provides essential
products and services to the general public, is otherwise necessary to preserve the welfare and
quality of life in the County, or fulfills important public safety, emergency response, and/or
disaster recovery functions. Figure 4.4-1 shows the critical facilities identified for the County.
The critical facilities identified in San Diego County include 130 hospitals and other health care
facilities; 323 emergency operations facilities, fire stations, and police stations; 1,024 schools,
3,732 hazardous material sites, 7 transportation systems that include 40 airport facilities, 1,277
bridges, 23 bus and 38 rail facilities; 68 marinas and port facilities, and 6,801 kilometers of
highways; utility systems that include 17 electric power facilities, natural gas facilities, crude and
refined oil facilities, 24 potable and waste water facilities, and 113 communications facilities and
utilities; 63 dams, 185 government office/civic centers, jails, prisons, military facilities, religious
facilities, and post offices (Figure 4.4.1).
GIS, HAZUS-MH, and other modeling tools were used to map the critical facilities in the county
and to determine which would most likely be affected by each of the profiled hazards. San Diego
County covers 4,264 square miles with several different climate patterns and types of terrain,
4-54
SECTIONFQUR Bisk Assessment
which allows for several hazards to affect several different parts of the county and several
jurisdictions at once or separately. The hazards addressed are described in Section 4.3.
4.4.2 Estimating Potential Exposure and Losses, and Future Development Trends
GIS modeling was used to estimate exposure to population, critical facilities, infrastructure, and
residential/commercial properties, from coastal storms/erosion, tsunami, structure fire/wildfire,
dam failure, landslide, and manmade hazards. The specific methods and results of all analyses are
presented below. The results are shown as potential exposure in thousands of dollars, and as the
worst-case scenario. For infrastructure, which has been identified as highways, railways and
energy pipelines, the length of exposure/impact is given in kilometers. Exposure characterizes the
value of structures within the hazard zone, and is shown as estimated exposure based on the
overlay of the hazard on the critical facilities, infrastructure, and other structures, which are given
an assumed cost of replacement for each type of structure exposed. These replacement costs are
estimated using a building square footage inventory purchased from Dun and Bradstreet. The
square footage information was classified based on Standard Industrial Code (SIC) and provided
at a 2002 census-tract resolution. The loss or exposure value is then determined with the
assumption that the given structure is totally destroyed (worst case scenario), which is not always
the case in hazard events. This assumption was valuable in the planning process, so that the total
potential damage value was identified when determining capabilities and mitigation measures for
each jurisdiction. Table 4.4-1 provides abbreviations and average replacement costs used for
critical facilities and infrastructure listed in all subsequent exposure/loss tables. Table 4.4-2
provides the total inventory and exposure estimates for the critical facilities and infrastructure by
jurisdiction. Table 4.4-3 shows the estimated exposure inventory for infrastructure by jurisdiction.
Table 4.4-4 provides an inventory of the maximum population and building exposure by
jurisdiction.
In addition to estimating potential exposure for structures, at-risk populations were also identified
per hazard area. At-risk populations were defined as low-income, disabled and/or elderly and
were based upon the 2000 census information.
Loss was estimated for earthquake and flood hazards in the County, in addition to exposure. Loss
is that portion of the exposure that is expected to be lost to a hazard, and is estimated by
referencing frequency and severity of previous hazards. Hazard risk assessment methodologies
embedded in HAZUS, FEMA's loss estimation software, were applied to earthquake and flood
hazards in San Diego County. HAZUS (a loss estimation software) integrates with GIS to provide
estimates for the potential impact of earthquake and flood hazards by using a common, systematic
framework for evaluation. This software contains economic and structural data on infrastructure
and critical facilities, including replacement value costs with 2002 square footage and valuation
parameters to use in loss estimation assumptions. This approach provides estimates for the
potential impact by using a common, systematic framework for evaluation. The HAZUS risk
assessment methodology is parametric, in that distinct hazard and inventory parameters (e.g.
ground shaking and building types) were modeled to determine the impact (damages and losses)
on the built environment. The HAZUS-MH models were used to estimate losses from earthquake
and flood hazards to critical facilities, infrastructure, and residential/commercial properties, as
well as economic losses on several return period events and annualized levels. Loss estimates
4-55
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
used available data, and the methodologies applied resulted in an approximation of risk. The
economic loss results are presented as the Annualized Loss (AL) for the earthquake hazard. AL
addresses the two key components of risk: the probability of the hazard occurring in the study
area and the consequences of the hazard, largely a function of building construction type and
quality, and of the intensity of the hazard event. By annualizing estimated exposure values, the
AL takes into account historic patterns of frequent smaller events with infrequent but larger
events to provide a balanced presentation of the risk. These estimates should be used to
understand relative risk from hazards and potential losses. Uncertainties are inherent in any loss
estimation methodology, arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural
hazards and their effects on the built environment. Uncertainties also result from approximations
and simplifications that are necessary for a comprehensive analysis (such as incomplete
inventories, demographics, or economic parameters).
4-56
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HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
LEGEND:
• Critical Facility Location
Base Layers:
| | Incorporated City Boundary
Streams
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THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. EITHER EXPRESSED
OR IMPLIED INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
Copyright SanGIS All Rights ReservedThis product may contain information from SANDAG Regional
information System which cannol be reproduced without the
written permission of SANDAG This product may contain informationwhich has been reproduced with permission
granted by Thomas Brothers Maps
K \Fire Services\tasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation PlarACritical Facilities Localions\COSD_Critic
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-1
Abbreviations and Costs Used for Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
Abr.
AIR
BRDG
BUS
COM
ELEC
EMER
GOVT
HOSP
INFR
PORT
POT
RAIL
SCH
Name
Airport facilities
Bridges
Bus facilities
Communication facilities and Utilities
Electric Power facility
Emergency Centers, Fire Stations and Police Stations
Government Office/Civic Center
Hospitals/Care facilities
Kilometers of Infrastructure. Includes:
Oil/Gas Pipelines (OG)
Railroad Tracks (RR)
Highway (HWY)
Port facilities
Potable and Waste Water facilities
Rail facilities
Schools
Building Type (where
applicable)
s1l
n/a
c1l
dl
dl
c1l
dl
s1m
n/a
n/a
n/a
dl
dl
dl
rmll
Average Replacement
Cost
200,000,000
191,600
2,000,000
2,000,000
10,000,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
100,000,000
300
860
3,860
20,000,000
100,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
4-59
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-2
Inventory of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure and Exposure Value by Jurisdiction
jurisdiction Data AIR BRDG ELEC EM ER GO VT INFR PORT
C a rlsbad
C hula Visla
C o ro n a d o
Del M ar
E 1 C ajo n
E n c i n it a s
E scondido
Im perial Beach
La M 9 s a
Lemon Grove
N a lional City
Oceans id e
P ow a y
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
S an lee
S oia na Beach
U n in c o rp o ra te d -
R u ra 1
Unincorporated -
U rb an Core
Vista
Number 1
Exposure (x$1 000) 200,000
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number ! 0
Expos u re (x$ 1000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) '. 0
Num ber ; 1
Exposure (x$1 000) ; 200,000
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) ; 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 0
Number ! 0
Exposure ( xj 1 000) 0
Number | 0
Exposurefx$1000) 0
Num ber 0
Exposure [x$1 OOOj 0
Num ber 1
Exposure (x$1 000) 200,00 0
Number 0
Exposure {x$1 000) I 0
Number 4
Exposure {xS1 000) | 800.000
Number 0
Ex£osurelx$1 000) ! 0
Num ber 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) 0
Number 0
Exposure{x$1000) 0
Number 33
E xpos ure (x$ 1 000) \ 6,600,000
Number 0
Exposure(x $1000) 0
Num ber j 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Total Number 40
Total E xpos ure x$1000) 18,000,000
33
6,323
44
8,430
2
383
5
958
37
7.089
16
3,066
74
14 ,1 78
1
192
36
6.898
8
1 ,533
47
9,005
43
8,239
45
8.622
498
95,4 17
12
2,299
15
2,874
5
958
227
43,493
11 7
2241 7.2
12
2,299
1 ,277
244,673
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
1
2.000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
12
24,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
23
46,000
2
4,000
2
4,000
1
2 ,000
0
0
2
4,000
1
2,000
4
8.000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
4
8 ,000
0
0
33
66.000
2
4,000
4
8 ,000
0
0
44
88,000
12
24000
0
0
11 3
226,000
1
1 0,000
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
20,000
0
0
0
0
9
90,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
30,000
0
0
0
0
1 7
170,000
7
14,000
13
26,000
3
6,000
1
2,000
8
1 6,000
6
1 2,000
8
1 6.000
2
4 .000
4
8 .000
2
4 ,000
4
8,000
10
20,000
4
8.000
89
178,000
8
1 6,000
4
8,000
1
2,000
100
200,000
40
80000
9
1 8,000
32 3
646,000
5
10,000
9
18,000
4
8,000
2
4,000
7
14 ,000
3
6,000
8
16,000
2
4 ,000
4
8,000
3
6,000
4
8 ,000
12
24,000
2
4,000
98
196,000
3
6 ,000
3
6,000
2
4,000
3
6,000
7
1 4000
4
8,000
185
370,000
2
200 ,000
7
700,000
1
1 00,000
0
0
6
600,000
3
300 ,000
8
800 ,000
2
200 ,000
2
200 ,000
0
0
7
700,000
1 1
1,1 00,000
1
1 00 ,000
50
5,000,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
1 5
1.500.000
1 0
1000000
3
300,000
1 30
1 3,000,000
153
247
11 9
255
28
51
14
10
64
161
85
145
83
21 1
4
2
53
11 3
24
60
37
88
124
250
34
98
959
2,1 68
59
149
33
72
28
46
1 ,334
4,402
320 .3
597 .25
53
101
12,749
42,540
0
0
1
20.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
100,000
0
0
0
0
62
1 ,240,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
68
1 ,360,000
2
200,000
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,0001
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
1
100000
0
0
11
1,100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
1 4,000
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6 ,000
8
1 6,000
0
0
5
1 0,000
2
4 ,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
2
4000
1 0
20,000
39
78,000
33
33 ,000
75
75,000
9
9,000
2
2.000
47
47 ,000
25
25 ,000
46
46 ,000
8
8.000
2 5
25 ,000
1 0
1 0 ,000
20
20 .000
43
43,000
25
25,000
361
361 ,000
28
28 ,000
1 5
1 5 ,000
9
9,000
86
86 ,000
1 15
1 15000
40
40 ,000
1,022
1,022,000
239
677,570
274
965,686
48
1 25,434
24
8,968
1 74
900,250
1 47
462. 211
234
1,004,389
19
21 6,1 94
1 25
250.01 1
47
21 ,593
1 32
9 75,093
259
1,52 3,489
1 12
1 47,7 20
2,182
8,262.585
1 16
260,448
76
1 41,946
46
18,004
1 ,847
8,56 1,89 S
624
1,360,01 4
1 31
388,400
15,997
26,305,213
4-60
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-3
Inventory of Exposure for Infrastructure
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego
(City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unicorporated -
Rural
Unicorporated -
Urban Core
Vista
Data
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Number
Oil/Gas Pipeplines
Railroad Tracks
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1OOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1OOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1OOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Number
Exposure (x$10OO)
Total Number
Total Exposure (x$1000)
HWY
55
212
61
234
12
46
1
3
39
150
32
124
52
20O
0
1
26
99
14
54
21
81
57
22O
25
95
514
1,983
35
136
17
67
10
40
1,107
4,272
136
523
23
88
1O,777
41,601
Replacen
87
26
52
15
16
5
8
3
19
6
43
13
27
8
4
1
16
5
6
2
12
4
49
15
9
3
354
106
15
4
15
4
15
4
117
35
152
46
24
7
1,352
405
RR
1 1
9
6
6
0
0
5
4
7
6
1O
8
3
3
0
0
12
10
4
4
4
4
18
15
0
0
92
79
9
8
1
1
3
2
11O
94
33
28
7
6
620
533
Total
153
247
119
255
28
51
14
1O
64
161
85
145
83
211
4
2
53
113
24
60
37
88
124
250
34
98
959
2,168
59
149
33
72
28
46
1,334
4,402
32O
597
53
101
12,749
42,540
4-61
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-4
Inventory of the Maximum Population and Building Exposure by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
San tee
Sdana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
104,707
232,095
23,009
4,591
98,205
64,145
143,071
28,243
56,880
26,114
56,522
179,626
51,126
1,354,013
83,149
56,848
13,547
168,254
333,626
96,100
3,173,871
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
43,723
77,457
9,541
2,537
35,656
24,848
47,044
9,859
25,333
7,224
15,776
64,642
16,339
510,740
27,726
19,681
6,512
60,561
108,042
30,707
1,143,948
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$12,308,025
$21,804,146
$2,685,792
$714,166
$10,037,164
$6,994,712
$13,242,886
$2,775,309
$7,131,240
$1,706,745
$4,440,944
$18,196,723
$4,599,429
$143,773,310
$7,804,869
$5,540,202
$1,833,128
$17,047,922
$30,413,823
$8,644,021
$321,694,551
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
1,559
2,184
470
220
1,360
1,268
1,835
346
952
50
892
1,964
732
18,862
812
582
322
2,177
3,560
1,163
41,310
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$6,986,970
$9,788,033
$2,106,399
$985,974
$6,095,112
$5,682,796
$8,223,920
$1,550,668
$4,266,578
$208,246
$3,997,676
$8,802,059
$3,280,604
$84,533,825
$3,639,140
$2,608,349
$1,443,107
$9,756,661
$15,954,852
$5,212,217
$185,123,188
4-62
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
4.4.2.1 Coastal Storm/Erosion
FEMA FIRM flood hazard data compiled and digitized in 1997 was used to profile the coastal
storm/erosion hazard. Specifically, the FEMA FIRM VE zone was used in the hazard modeling process in
HAZUS-MH. As discussed earlier, the VE Zone is defined by FEMA as the coastal area subject to a
velocity hazard (wave action). The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on the identified
hazard areas, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count
(both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial
occupancies, 2) lifeline infrastructure and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports,
bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by
hazard risk level per jurisdiction.
Table 4.4-5 provides a breakdown of potential coastal storm/coastal erosion exposure by jurisdiction. No
losses to critical facilities and infrastructure are expected from these hazards. Approximately 1,500 people
may be at risk from coastal storm/coastal erosion hazards in San Diego County.
4-63
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-5
Potential Exposure from Coastal Storm/Erosion Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
E scon dido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
San tee
Sdana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
14
0
580
17
0
94
0
157
0
0
0
76
0
199
0
0
402
0
0
0
1,539
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
8
0
261
10
0
42
0
64
0
0
0
54
0
128
0
0
167
0
0
0
734
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$2,252
$0
$73,472
$2,815
$0
$11,823
$0
$18,016
$0
$0
$0
$15,201
$0
$36,032
$0
$0
$47,011
$0
$0
$0
$206,621
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
7
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$0
$0
$4,482
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$13,445
$0
$4,482
$0
$0
$8,963
$0
$0
$0
$31,372
4-64
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.4.2.2 Tsunami
Tsunami maximum run-up projections were modeled for the entire San Diego County coastline in 2000
by the University of Southern California, and distributed by the CA Office of Emergency Services. The
model was a result of a combination of inundation modeling and onsite surveys to show maximum
predicted inundation levels due to tsunami. This was a scenario model, which uses a given earthquake
intensity and location to determine resulting tsunami effects. The identified vulnerable assets were
superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated
exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for
residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level,
and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical
nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction.
Table 4.4-6 provides a breakdown of potential exposure by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-7 provides a
breakdown of potential exposure to infrastructure and critical facility by jurisdiction. Approximately
35,600 people may be at risk from the tsunami hazard in San Diego County. In addition, special
populations at risk that may be impacted by tsunami in San Diego County include: 2,558 low income
households and 3,655 elderly persons.
4-65
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-6
Potential Exposure from Tsunami Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
E scon dido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
San tee
Sdana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vrsta
Total
Exposed
Population
1,165
83
8,523
1,023
0
388
0
5,225
0
0
1,306
2,108
0
10,294
0
0
324
5,154
35
0
35,628
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
535
26
3,367
542
0
178
0
2,138
0
0
0
1,059
0
6,490
0
0
135
95
11
0
14,576
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$150,603
$7,319
$947,811
$152,573
$0
$50,107
$0
$601,847
$0
$0
$0
$298,109
$0
$1,826,935
$0
$0
$38,003
$26,743
$3,097
$0
$4,103,144
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
23
1
98
35
0
9
0
97
0
0
5
46
0
393
0
0
3
0
1
0
711
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$103,079
$4,482
$439,207
$156,860
$0
$40,335
$0
$434,725
$0
$0
$22,409
$206,158
$0
$1,761,308
$0
$0
$13,445
$0
$4,482
$0
$3,186,489
4-66
SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-7
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Tsunami Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
C a rlsba ri
C hula V is la
C o ro n ad o
D e 1 M a r
El C a jo n
E n cin ila s
E sco n rj id o
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
N a lion a 1 C Uy
0 ce a n side
P o w a y
San 0 lego (City)
San Marcos
S a n te e
Solatia Beach
U n in corpora (e d
Rural
U n in corpora led
Urban Core
Vista
Total Number
Total Exposure
Data
N LI m bar
E x posure (x S 1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1 000)
Number
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N irm ber
E x posure (x S1000J
N U m b e r
E x posure (x SI 000)
N umber
E x posure (x S1000)
N umber
E x posure (x S1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $ 1 000}
N u m b e r
E x posure (x $1 000)
N umber
E xposure (x S1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (X S 1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x SI 0001
N umber
E x posure (x S 1 000}
N umber
E x posure ix 51 000}
N umber
E xposure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
Mum ber
E x posure (x SIOOu)
N urn ber
E x posure (x $1000}
(x$1 000)
AIR
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
""""6"""""""
0
o" ""
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
b """
0
0
B R DG
2
383
1
192
1
192
2
383
0
o'
1
192
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
2"""""383 """""
3
575"
0
0
7
1 ,341
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
766
0
o
0
""b
23
4,407
BUS
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
6
0...........
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
0, .,.„.,
0
0
COM
0
o
0
0 "
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
"6
0
'""6
0
0
0
o'"""
0
0
0
0
0
b"
0
0
0
b"
0
d
0
0
ELEC
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
b ""
0
6"
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
" o"
0
0
EM ER
0
o
0
0
1
2,00 0
1
2.000 "
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
b'
0
b
0
b
0
b""
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
b
2
4,000
GOVT
0
b
0
0
2
""Ob o
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
"'0"""~~
0
o
0
0
1
zTboo
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
(1
0
o
3
6,000
H OS P
0
b
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
"""b"
0
o
0
0
1
100,000'
0
0
0
0
0
o"
0
0
0
o
0
b
1
1 00,000
IN FR
4
3
0
0
18
36
3
2
0
b
3
i
0
o
1
1
0
b
0
b
0
""" i
2
3
0
0
10
5
0
0 "
0
0
0
"b
1
1
1
2
0
' b
42
55
PORT
0
b
1
20,000
0
0
0
o
0
o'
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
b
3
""eo'obT"
0
o
0
0
49
980,000"
0
" o"
0
"o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
" b
53
1 ,060,000
POT
0
b
0
' 0
0
b
0
0
0
o
1..__._....
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
b
0
""""""""b '
0
o"
0
0
0
'"b
0
0
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
b"
1
100,000
W W TR
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
""Q""""""
0
b "
0
0
0o"~~'
0
0
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
6
0
" o "
0
0
RAIL
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
0
0
b
0
b
0,__„,..,
0
b
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
"o"
0
0
0
0
0
o""""
0
0
S CH
0
b
0
0
1
i,bb"b
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
1
1,000
0
b
0
o
0"'"'"""b""""
0
""" o "
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
""b "
2
2,000
Total
6
386
2
20,192
23
7,227
6
2.385
0
o"
5
1 00,1 93
0
o
2
1 .001
0
o
0
6
5
60,384
5
578™
0
0
68
1 ,083,347
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
768
1
2
0
o
127
1 ,276,462
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-67
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.4.2.3 Dam Failure
Dam inundation zones, compiled by FEMA or the National Inventory of Dams throughout San Diego
County, and purchased through SanGIS, show areas that would be flooded if each dam failed. The San
Diego County Water Authority provided the Olivenhain Dam inundation map. The identified vulnerable
assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the
aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level
for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level,
and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical
nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction.
Table 4.4-8 provides a breakdown of potential exposure by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-9 provides a
breakdown of potential exposure to infrastructure and critical facility by jurisdiction. Approximately
241,700 people are at risk from the dam failure hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be
impacted by the dam failure hazard in San Diego County include 13,689 low-income households and
24,316 elderly persons.
4-68
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-8
Potential Exposure from Dam Failure Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
4,113
8,635
0
1,139
0
1,204
47,700
5,526
1,701
0
1,998
33,755
0
75,686
2,481
20,815
40
14,512
21,862
553
241,720
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
1,951
2,973
0
612
0
425
14,323
1,880
731
0
496
11,437
0
28,036
829
6,968
17
3,686
7,304
215
81,883
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$549,207
$836,900
$0
$172,278
$0
$119,638
$4,031,925
$529,220
$205,777
$0
$139,624
$3,219,516
$0
$7,892,134
$233,364
$1,961,492
$4,786
$1,037,609
$2,056,076
$60,523
$23,050,065
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
49
190
0
47
0
35
766
42
19
0
184
285
0
1,206
59
267
2
135
277
16
3,579
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$219,603
$851,523
$0
$210,640
$0
$156,860
$3,432,982
$188,231
$85,152
$0
$824,633
$1,277,285
$0
$5,404,930
$264,420
$1,196,614
$8,963
$605,030
$1,241,431
$71,707
$16,040,004
4-69
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-9
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
from Dam Failure Hazard by Jurisdiction
Ju ris diction
C a rl s b a d
C h ula Vista
C o ro n a d o
Del Mar
E 1 C ajo n
E n c in rt as
E scondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon G rove
National City
0 ceanside
P ow a y
San Diego (Cily)
San Marcos
S a n te e
Soiana Beach
U n in c o rp o ra te d
R u ra 1
U n in c o rp o ra te d
U rba n C ore
V 1st a
Data AIR
Number I 0
Exposure (x$ 1000) 0
Number i 0
E xpos ure (x$ 1 000) 0
Number 0
Exposure (xSf 000) ! 0
Number 0
E x p o s u re ( x$ 1 0 0 0 } 0
Num ber 0
E xpos ure (xS 1 000) 0
Num ber : 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) I 0
Num ber j 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) 0
Number 0
Exposure jx$1 000} ! 0
Num ber i 0
Exposure 1x51 000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 0
Number i 0
Exposure 1x51 000} I 0
Number j 1
Exposure (xSI 000) 200,000
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 1 0
Number ; 0
Exposure (x$1 000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure ( x$ 1 000) I 0
Num ber i 0
Exposure (x$1 000) i 0
Num ber [ 1
Exposure (xtt 000) ! 200,000
Number '< 0
Exposure (x$1 000) i 0
Number 0
E x p o s u re { x$ 1 0 0 0 ) 0
Tola 1 N urn b er [ 2
Total E xposure x$1000) i 400,000
BRDG
4
766
1 6
3,066
0
0
3
575
0
0
5
958
33
6,323
1
192
2
383
0
0
26
4,982
17
3,257
0
0
1 20
22,992
1
192
1 2
2,299
0
0
42
8,047
22
4,21 5
2
383
306
58,630
BUS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
COM
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2.000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
3
6,000
0
0
1
2.000
0
0
0
0
7
14,000
ELEC
0
0
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
20,000
EM ER
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
4
8,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6,000
0
0
8
16,000
0
0
4
8,000
0
0
5
10,000
6
12,000
1
2,000
33
66,000
GO VT
0
01
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
16,000
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
2
4,000
0
0
12
24 ,000
0
0
2
4.000
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
29
58,000
HOSP
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
600,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
12
1 ,200,000
INFR
7
9
23
60
0
0
9
5
0
0
19
13
48
149
3
1
9
12
0
0
22
63
25
62
0
0
286
605
3
4
67
1 30
0
0
68
2 11
76
140
1
0
664
1,465
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
20,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
20,000
PO T
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
300,000
WW TR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
2
2 00 ,0 00
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6,000
SC H
1
1 ,000
1
1 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3,000
1 5
15 ,000
1
1 ,000
0
0
0
0
2
2,000
7
7,000
0
0
1 2
12 ,000
2
2,000
6
6,000
0
0
5
5,000
1 5
15,000
0
0
70
70,000
Total
1 2
1,775
45
218,1 26
0
0
1 3
2,579
0
0
28
1 03,971
1 18
751 ,472
6
3,192
1 1
395
0
0
53
31 ,044
56
222,319
0
0
444
389,597
6
2,196
96
1 28,429
0
0
123
325,258
123
235,356
4
2,384
1,136
2,41 8,094
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-70
SECTiONFOUR Risk Assessment
4.4.2.4 Earthquake, Liquefaction and Earthquake-Induced Landslides
The data used in the earthquake hazard assessment were: 100-, 250-, 500-, 750-, 1000-, 1500-, 2000-, and
2500- year return period USGS probabilistic hazards. Soil conditions for San Diego County as developed
by USGS were also used, which allowed for a better reflection of amplification of ground shaking that
may occur. The HAZUS software model, which was developed for FEMA by the National Institute of
Building Services as a tool to determine earthquake loss estimates, was used to model earthquake and
flood for this assessment. This software program integrates with a GIS to facilitate the manipulation of
data on building stock, population, and the regional economy with hazard models. PBS&J updated this
model in 2003 to HAZUS-MH (Multiple Hazard), which can model earthquake and flood, along with
collateral issues associated with each model, such as liquefaction and landslide with earthquakes. This
software was not released prior to the beginning of the planning process; however, PBS&J performed
vulnerability and loss estimation models for earthquakes and flood for this project using the newer model.
Additionally, the earthquake risk assessment explored the potential for collateral hazards such as
liquefaction and earthquake-induced landslides. Three cases were examined, one case with shaking only,
a second case with liquefaction potential, and a third with earthquake-induced landslides. Once the model
was complete, the identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in
three risk/loss estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and
population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated
population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals,
airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented
by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Results for residential and commercial properties were generated as
annualized losses, which average all eight of the modeled return periods (100-year through 2500-year
events). For critical facility losses it was helpful to look at 100- and 500-year return periods to plan for an
event that is more likely to occur in the near-term. In the near term, a 500-year earthquake would cause
increased shaking, liquefaction and landslide, which would be expected to increase loss numbers.
Exposure for annualized earthquake included buildings and population in the entire county because a
severe or worst case scenario earthquake could affect any structure in the County. Furthermore, the
annualized earthquake loss table also shows potential collateral exposure and losses from liquefaction and
landslide separately; this is the additional loss from earthquake due to liquefaction or landslide caused by
earthquakes and should be added to the shaking-only loss values to get the correct value. (The collateral
liquefaction and landslide loss results for critical facilities were included with earthquake in Tables 4.4-11
and 4.4-12, to plan for an event that is more likely to occur in the near-term as discussed above).
Table 4.4-10 provides a breakdown of potential exposure and losses due to annualized earthquake events
by jurisdiction. Tables 4.4-11 and 4.4-12 provide a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility losses
from 100-year and 500-year earthquakes, respectively. Approximately 3,100,000 people may be at risk
from the annualized earthquake and earthquake-induced liquefaction hazards. In addition, special
populations at risk that may be impacted by the earthquake hazard in San Diego County include 13,689
low-income households and 24,316 elderly persons.
4-71
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-10
Potential Exposure and Losses from Annualized Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated-
Rural
Unincorporated-
Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
104,707
232,095
23,009
4,591
98,205
64,145
143,071
28,243
56,880
261,114
56,522
179,626
51,126
1,354,013
83,149
56,848
13,547
168,254
333,626
96,100
3,408,871
Building
Count
43,723
77,457
9,541
2,537
35,656
24,848
47,044
9,859
25,333
7,224
15,776
64,642
16,339
510,740
27,726
19,681
6,512
60,561
108,042
30,707
1,143,948
**Potentia
I Loss
from
Shaking
(x$1000)
2,649
3,086
1,309
235
1,739
1,962
2,743
680
1,026
510
874
4,336
776
32,046
934
1,076
573
886
8,963
1,597
$67,999
"Potential
Additional
Loss from
Liquefaction
(x$1000)
0
332
156
0
0
0
0
149
0
0
56
646
0
1,648
0
0
62
0
1
0
$3,050
"Potential
Additional
Loss from
Landslide
(x$1000)
524
586
208
46
319
536
399
94
121
56
203
1,156
141
8,721
113
279
108
152
2,113
251
$16,126
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
12,308,025
21,804,146
2,685,792
714,166
10,037,164
6,994,712
13,242,886
2,775,309
7,131,240
2,033,556
4,440,944
18,196,723
4,599,429
143,773,310
7,804,869
5,540,202
1,833,128
17,047,922
30,413,823
8,644,021
$322,021,362
Building
Count
1,559
2,184
470
220
1,360
1,268
1,835
346
952
50
892
1,964
732
18,862
812
582
322
2,177
3,560
1,163
$41,310
"Potentia
I Loss
from
Shaking
(x$1000)
998
772
224
110
726
659
1,149
87
318
127
420
849
257
12,428
518
252
312
149
1,123
411
$21,892
"Potential
Additional
Loss from
Liquefaction
(x$1000)
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
34
0
725
0
0
15
0
0
0
$832
"Potential
Additional
Loss from
Landslide
(x$1000)
352
262
75
27
218
209
339
34
82
32
132
293
82
4,231
153
108
84
43
329
116
$7,202
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
6,986,970
9,788,033
2,106,399
985,974
6,095,112
5,682,796
8,223,920
1,550,668
4,266,578
224,085
3,997,676
8,802,059
3,280,604
84,533,825
3,639,140
2,608,349
1,443,107
9,756,661
15,954,852
5,212,217
$185,139,027
281.5
**Same numbers as in 2004, no additional information available at this time
4481.7
4-72
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-11
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 100-Year Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction
J uris diction Data AIR B RDG BUS COM ELEC EMER GOVT HOSP INFR PORT POT WWTR RAIL SCH TO TAL
C a rlsb ad
C hula Vista
C o ro n a d o
Del M ar
E 1 C ajo n
E ncin itas
E scon did o
Im peria 1 Be ach
La Mesa
L em on Grove
National City
0 cea nsid e
P ow a y
S an Diego (City)
S an M arco s
S a n te e
S ola na Beach
U n in co rp o ra te d -
R u ral
U n in c o rp o ra te d -
U rban C ore
Vista
N u m be r
Exposu re xJ1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re xS100 0)
Number
Exposure x$1000)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
N u m b e r
Exposu re (xS100 0)
Number
Exposu re x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re xS 1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re x$100 0)
N u m be r
Exposure x$1000)
Number
Exposu re x$ 1 00 0)
N u m be r
E xposu re x$1 00 0)
N u m be r
Exposu re (xS1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$100 0)
Number
E xposu re (x$1 00 0)
Number
E xposu re (x$ 100 0)
Number
E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0)
N u m be r
E xposu re x$ 1 00 0)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
E xposu re x J1 00 0)
Tota 1 N u m b er
Total E xpos ure (x$ 1000)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
3,000,000
0
0
0
0
1 5
3,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
5,748
0
0
0
0
30
5,748
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
38,000
0
0
0
0
19
38,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
26
52,000
0
0
0
0
26
52,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
800,000
0
0
0
0
8
800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
437
1 ,647
0
0
0
0
437
1 ,647
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28
28.000
0
0
0
0
28
28,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
565
4,027,395
0
0
0
0
565
4,027,395
4-73
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-12
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 500-Year Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction Data AIR BRDG BUS COM ELEC EMER GOVT HOSP INFR PORT POT WWTR RAIL SCH TOTAL
C a rlsb ad
Chula Vista
C o ro n ad o
Del M ar
E 1 Cajon
E ncin itas
E scon did o
Im p eria 1 Be ach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
0 cea nsid e
P ow a y
S an Diego (C ity )
San Marcos
S an le e
S ola na Beach
U n in co rp o ra te d -
Rural
U n in co rp o ra te d -
Urban C ore
Vista
lumber
E x posu re {x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$1000)
dumber
E xposu re (x$1 00 0)
Wu m be r
Exposy re (x$100 0)
N u in b e r
Exposu re (x$t 00 0}
Number
Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0}
Number
Exposu re (x$1000)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
N u m b e r
E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0)
Number
E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0)
Nu m be r
Exposu re (x$100 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposure (xJIOOO)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$100 0)
Number
Exposu re (x$1 00 0)
Number
Exposure (xJIOOO)
N u m be r
Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0}
TotalNumber
To ta 1 E xpo s u re (x$1000)
1
200.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
200,000
0
0
2
400.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
6,000,000
0
0
0
0
34
6,800,000
33 | 0
6,323 ! 0
0 | 0
0 ! 0
1 : 0
192 i 0
5 ! 0
958 I 0
0 ! 0
0 ! 0
16 | 0
3,066 ! 0
71 | 1
13,604 2,000
0 : 0
0 i 0
0 | 0
o ! o
0 | 0
o : o
0 : 0
0 ! 0
43 | 2
8,239 4,000
0 i 0
0 : 0
115 ! 3
22,034 | 6.000
12 | 0
2.299 ! 0
0 ; 0
0 ; 0
5 ! 0
958 0
188 j 2
36,021 ! 4,000
39 | 0
7472.4 i 0
12 0
2,299 I 0
540 ! 8
103,464 i 16,000
2
4,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
4
8,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
8,000
0
0
15
30,000
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
3 1
62,000
9
18000
0
0
69
138,000
1
10,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
40,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
20,000
0
0
0
0
7
70,000
7
14,000
0
0
2
4.000
1
2,000
0
0
6
12,000
8
16,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 0
20,000
0
0
24
48,000
8
16,000
0
0
1
2,000
76
152,000
20
40000
9
18,000
172
344,000
5
1 0,000
0
0
4
8,000
2
4,000
0
0
3
6.000
8
16,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
24,000
0
0
35
70,000
3
6,000
0
0
2
4,000
1
2,000
3
6000
4
8,000
82
164,000
2
200,000
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
3
300,000
8
800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
1 ,100,000
0
0
4
400,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
12
1 .200,000
6
600000
3
300,000
52
5,200,000
153
247
0
0
19
30
1 4
1 0
0
0
85
145
83
21 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
124
250
0
0
239
421
59
14 9
0
0
28
47
1 ,145
3,818
165
252
53
101
2,167
5,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
47
940,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
47
940,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
1
100.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
01
100000
0
0
7
700,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
400.000
0
0
0
0
5
500,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
1 4,0001
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
16,000
0
0
5
1 0,000
2
4,000
0
0
1
2.000
0
0
2
4000
10
20,000
36
72,000
33
33,000
0
0
9
9,000
2
2,000
0
0
25
25,000
46
46.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
43,000
0
0
68
68,000
28
28,000
0
0
9
9,000
63
63,000
45
45000
40
40,000
411
411 ,000
239
677,570
0
0
37
123,222
24
8,968
0
0
1 47
462,21 1
232
1,103,815
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
259
1 ,523,489
0
0
562
2,134,455
1 1 6
260,448
0
0
46
18,005
1 ,554
7,942,838
290
820,725
131
388,400
3,637
15,464,145
4-74
SECTIBNFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.4.2.5 Rood
Digitized 100-year and 500-year flood maps with base flood elevation (BFE) from the FEMA FIRM
program for most of the areas were utilized for this project. Census blocks with non-zero population and
non-zero dollar exposure that intersect with these polygons were used in the analysis. For the areas that
did not include BFE information, a base flood elevation was estimated for the final purpose of computing
the flood depth at different locations of the region as follows:
Transect lines across the flood polygon (perpendicular to the flow direction) were created using an
approximation method for Zone A flood polygons. Zone A is the FEMA FIRM Zone that is defined
as the 100-year base flood.
A point file was extracted from the line (Begin node, End node and center point). The Zonal operation
in the GIS tool Spatial Analyst (with the point file and a digital elevation model [DEM]) was used
to estimate the ground elevation in the intersection of the line with the flood polygon borders. The
average value of the End and Begin point of the line was calculated. This value was assumed as the
base flood elevation for each transect.
A surface model (triangulated irregular network, or TIN) was derived from the original transect with the
derived BFE value and the flood polygon. This TIN file approximated a continuous and variable flood
elevation along the flood polygon. A grid file was then derived from the TIN file with the same extent and
pixel resolution of the DEM (30-meter resolution). The difference of the flood elevation grid file and the
DEM was calculated to produce an approximate flood depth for the whole study area. HAZUS-MH based
damage functions, in a raster format, were created for each of the occupancies present in the census
blocks. A customized Visual Basic (VBA) script was written to assign the ratio of damage expected
(function of computed flood depth) for each type of occupancy based on the HAZUS-MH damage
functions. HAZUS-MH exposure values ($) in raster format were created using Spatial Analyst. Since not
all areas in the census blocks are completely within the flood area, the exposure at risk was weighted and
estimated accordingly based on the number of pixels in flood area. Losses were then estimated through
multiplication of damage ratio with the exposure at risk for each block. Losses were then approximated
based on 100- and 500-year losses (high and low hazards).
Table 4.4-13 provides a breakdown of potential exposure and losses by jurisdiction for 100-year flood,
and Table 4.4-14 provides a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility losses for 100-year flood by
jurisdiction. Table 4.4-15 provides a breakdown, of potential exposure and losses by jurisdiction from
500-year flood, and Table 4.4-16 provides a breakdown of potential infrastructure and critical facility
losses by jurisdiction. The loss tables also provide a breakdown of loss ratios for commercial and
residential properties by jurisdiction. These loss ratios are determined by dividing the loss values by the
exposure values for each jurisdiction, and give a perspective of the potential losses for each jurisdiction
for this hazard. For example, a loss ratio value of 0.4 in El Cajon would mean that 40% of the exposed
buildings in El Cajon would be lost due to a 100- or 500-year flood.
Approximately 113,000 people may be at risk from the 100-year flood hazard. In addition, special
populations at risk that may be impacted by the 100-year flood hazard in San Diego County include 8,424
low-income households and 15,144 elderly persons. Approximately 215,000 people are at risk from the
4-75
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
500-year flood hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the 500-year flood
hazard in San Diego County include 13,689 low-income households and 24,316 elderly persons.
4.4.2.5.1 Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program
Most jurisdictions within San Diego County participate in the National Flood Insurance program.
Specific details for each participating jurisdiction are listed below.
City of Carlsbad
The City of Carlsbad does not participate in the National Rood Insurance Program.
City of Chula Vista
The City of Chula Vista participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to
authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the
appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps delineating base flood
elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements to be adopted by the City. The Chula Vista
Municipal Code has been amended to include the language required by FEMA.
City of Coronado
The City of Coronado participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to
authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the
appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM)delineating base
flood elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements to be adopted by the City.
City of Del Mar
The City of Del Mar participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to
authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the
appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) identifying base
flood elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements. All FEMA requirements have been
adopted by the City.
City of El Cajon
The City of El Cajon is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City and as
designated by FEMA. The City of El Cajon manages the permitting of any proposed developments
and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps
up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist
constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries
within the floodplain areas.
City ofEncinitas
Encinitas participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and is required to adopt and
enforce floodplain ordinances that meet FEMA's requirements. In return the NFIP makes federally
backed flood insurance available in areas that are prone to flooding (have at least 1% chance of
flooding annually). Without Federally backed insurance for flooding, homeowners either can't find
flood insurance or the rate is very high. The NFIP is a Federal program administered by FEMA that
provides flood insurance, floodplain management, and flood hazard mapping. The City ofEncinitas
4-76
SECTFONFOUR Bisk Assessment
Engineering Department manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements
within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of
the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to address questions regarding the 100-
year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Encinitas received updated maps
last year. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. The
Floodplain Management Regulations in Chapter 23.40 of the Encinitas Municipal Code meet or
exceed FEMA guidelines and requirements.
City ofEscondido
The City ofEscondido does not participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). As part
of their property insurance policy the City does purchase flood coverage. The City has a $30,000,000
limit with a deductible of either $250,000 or $100,000 depending upon the specific flood zone.
City of Imperial Beach
The City of Imperial Beach participates in the NFIP. The staff member with the key role in the
program is the Floodplain Administrator. The Administrator determines if a proposed structure
would be situated within an area of special flood hazard (usually a 100-year floodplain or floodvvay)
as shown on the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). They are usually along the oceanfront,
bay-front, or river valley. It is rare if the City receives a building permit application to build within a
floodplain. When that occurs, the Administrator requires the finish floor elevation to be above the
base flood elevation. In addition there would be a requirement for the applicant's engineer to submit
a hydrology study that would show the proposed structure would not raise the base flood elevation.
The requirements in the City of Imperial beach follow the rules, regulations and guidelines of the
National Flood Insurance Program.
City of La Mesa
The City of La Mesa is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City and as
designated by FEMA. The City of La Mesa manages the permitting of any proposed developments
and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps
up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist
constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries
within the floodplain areas.
City of Lemon Grove
The City of Lemon Grove is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City
and as designated by FEMA. The City of Lemon Grove manages the permitting of any proposed
developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and
requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are
used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and
boundaries within the floodplain areas.
City of National City
The City of National City is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the
city and as designated by FEMA. The City of National City manages the permitting of any
4-77
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines
and requirements, State of California Department of Water Resources Model Floodplain.
Management Ordinance and the City of National City Floodplain Ordinance, and keeps up to
date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents
in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the
floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA.
City of Oceanside
The City of Oceanside participates in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program. The program is
monitored through our City Engineering Department which manages the permitting of developments
and improvements in the floodplain areas. These areas are identified by Flood Maps that are updated
by FEMA. The City has been part of this program since 1991 with our last assessment in 1996.
City of Poway
The City of Poway participates in the National Flood insurance Program (NFIP). Participation in the
NFIP is required to provide our citizens with Federally-subsidized flood insurance. The City's
responsibility, as a NFIP participant, is to adopt a floodplain ordinance regulate development in the 100
year floodplain. Any development in the floodplain requires a Floodplain Development permit issued by
the City. They estimate there are over 900 residential structures located in the 100-year floodplain. The
City of Poway also participates in the Community Rating System (CRS) program which provides our
citizens with a 10% reduction in their flood insurance premiums. The amount of reduction is based on
our floodplain management activities that are over and above the minimum required by FEMA.
City of San Diego
The City of San Diego is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as
designated by FEMA. The City of San Diego manages the permitting of any proposed developments and
improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to
date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in
answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain
areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA.
Cz'fy of San Marcos
The City of San Marcos is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as
designated by FEMA. The City of San Marcos has adopted a floodplain management ordinance in
accordance with the FEMA's rules and regulations. The City manages the permitting of any proposed
developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the guidelines and requirements
provided in said ordinance and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM).
These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood
elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are
processed by the City through FEMA.
City of Santee
The City of Santee is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as
designated by FEMA. The City of Santee manages the permitting of any proposed developments and
4-78
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
improvements within the floodplain areas per the City's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance that
meets or exceeds FEMA guidelines and requirements. The City of Santee keeps up to date copies of
the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) that are used to assist constituents in answering their
questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any
proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA.
City of Solatia Beach
The City of Solana Beach is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This
program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as
designated by FEMA. The City also has a Municipal Code (Chapter 17.80; FLOOD DAMAGE
PREVENTION OVERLAY ZONE). This ordinance references the Federal Flood Insurance Rate Maps.
The City of Solana Beach is currently working with FEMA to ensure their program remains current.
City of Vista
The City of Vista is a participant in FEMA's National Rood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program
provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by
FEMA. The City of Vista manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements
within the floodplain areas per the City's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance that meets or exceeds
FEMA guidelines and requirements. The City of Vista keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance
Rate Maps (FIRM) that are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year
flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are
processed by the City through FEMA.
County of San Diego
The County of San Diego participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) managed by the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). To qualify for flood insurance, new construction and
substantial improvement to structures located in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) within the
County must meet minimum standards established by the NFIP. Additionally, FEMA's Community
Rating System (CRS) program enables communities to earn credits for tasks and activities above and
beyond minimum NFIP standards. The County has been a participating member under the CRS since
September 2007, and has twice successfully reduced insurance premiums in San Diego by five percent.
To ensure that the County's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance reflects the most current standards set
forth by the NFIP and to implement higher regulations for development of new or substantially improved
structures located within the SFHA, the County's DPW Flood Control Engineering Group has begun the
process of updating the Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance.
Rancho Santa Fe Fire Protection District
Rancho Santa Fe FPD does not directly participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. Being
pail of the unincorporated portion of the County of San Diego, residents of Rancho Santa Fe
participate in the NFIP through the County's process.
4.4.2.5.2 Continued Compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program
Seventeen of the 19 jurisdictions within the San Diego region are members in good standing of the
National Flood Insurance Program. They provide FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) to residents
and ensure that any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas meet or exceed
NFIP standards. Those cities also enforce any regulatory measures related to the 100 year flood zones,
submit Letters of Map Revisions (LOMRs) and Letters of Map Amendments (LOMAs) to FEMA as well
4-79
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
as periodically reviewing their compliance with NFIP requirements. The County of San Diego has
participated in the Community Rating System (CRS) program (which enables communities to earn credits
for tasks and activities above and beyond minimum NFIP standards) since September 2007.
All of the 17 jurisdictions that participate in the NFIP will continue to do so. They considered it to be an
excellent, cost beneficial way to help mitigate against damaging flood events.
4-80
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-13
Potential Exposure and Losses from 100-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated
Rural
Unincorporated
Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
6,906
5,947
2,853
813
1,870
653
8,367
1,206
0
280
2,854
19,007
3,986
36,042
2,377
1,873
1,124
7,276
10,125
1,988
115,547
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building Count
3,045
2,395
1,227
435
657
234
2,599
408
0
78
893
6,715
301
12,191
794
572
574
3,661
3,358
635
40,772
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
$857,168
$674,193
$345,401
$122,453
$184,946
$65,871
$731,619
$114,852
$0
$21,957
$251,380
$1,890,273
$14,390
$3,431 ,767
$223,511
$161,018
$161,581
$1,030,572
$945,277
$178,753
$11,406,977
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building Count
102
153
30
42
36
22
101
14
0
3
118
217
12
523
70
46
13
137
195
94
1,928
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
$457,133
$685,700
$134,451
$188,231
$161,341
$98,597
$452,652
$62,744
$0
$13,445
$528,841
$972,529
$1,666
$2,343,929
$313,719
$206,158
$58,262
$613,993
$873,932
$421 ,280
$8,588,603
4-81
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-14
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
from 100-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction
J u r is d ictio n
C a rlsb a d
C h u la Vis la
C o r o n a d o
D e 1 M a r
E 1 C a jo n
E n c in ila s
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
N a tio n a 1 C ity
0 ceanside
P o w a y
San D ie g o ( C ity )
San Marcos
S a n Ie e
Solana Beach
U nincorporaled
Rural
U nincorporaled
Urban Core
V is la
TotalNumber
Total Exposure
Data
N y in her
E x pos ure (x $ 1 000)
N umber
E x p o s u re (x $ 1 0 0 0 j
N umber
E x pos ure (x $ 1 000)
N u m b e r
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
E x pos ure (X $ i 000)
N umber
E x pos ure (x $ i 000)
N umber
Exposure (x $ 1 000)
N u m b e r
E x pos ure (x $ 1 000)
N u m b e r
E xposure {x $ 1 0 0 6)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOOJ
N u m bar
E x pos ure (x $ 1 000)
N umber
Exposure (x $ 1 000 j
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N u m b e r
E x pos ure (x $ i 000)
N umber
Exposure ix $ 1 000)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Expos ure (x$1000)
N u m b e r
Exposure (x $ 1 0 0 0 )
N umber
Exposure (x $ 1 000)
x $ 1 0 00)
A IR
0
o
0
o
0
'" o ""
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
F "
0
o
0
o
1
200,000
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
b~
0
0
3
60 0 ,00 0
0
0
0
""'o
4
8 00 ,0 0 0
B R D G
6
i"7'i s b
1 2
2T299
1
"79 2
3
'575
2
3 83
4
766
4
766
0
b
0
" b
0
b
8
l",5"3l
1 7
3,257
7
T,3 4 1
7 4
14,178
3
575
9
1,7 2 4
1
1 92
3 6
6,898
1 4
2,682
0
""" o
2 0 1
38,512
BUS
0
o
0
o
0
' o
0
0
0
o"
0
0
0
b
0
o "
0
" ¥'"
0
" " 6
0
o
0
b
0
o
1
2 76 o b
0
b
0
b ~~"
0
0
0
0
0
0
0'"'"" 0
1
2,000
COM
0
o
0
o
0
o "
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o"""
0
o
0
b
1
jT'o'o b
0
"6
3
6 ,00 0
0
b
0
o"
0
0
1
2 ,00 0
0
0
0
0
5
10,000
E L E C
0
o
0
b
0
6
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
6
0
""""b"
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o"
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
E M E R
0
o
1
2"7b"6"6
0
""'b'""""
0
b
0
b
0
~"o "
0
b
0
b
0
'""" b
0
b
0
b
2
O To 6
1
2 ,'bob '
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
0
4
8,000
1
2 .000
1
2,000
1 0
20,000
G 0 V T
0
o
1r,"o bo
1
2 ,00 0
0
o
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
b
0
~'~ b """"
0
0
1
2 7o'bb
3
6 ,000
0
o "
2
4",b bo
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
1
2 ,0 00
1 0
20,000
H 0 S P
0
b
1
Too ,b"o 'b ""
0
" o'
0
o
0o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
"" b"" ~
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o1
Too ,bb"o
2
20b",0 0 0
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
400 ,00 0
I N F R
20
20
1 3
2" 5
2
7
4
3
3
4
5
1
6
15
1
o
0
"""'d "
1
3
9
24
28
53
1
2"
66
99
6
14
3
1
0
0
5 1
1 7 5
1 8
50
2
5
239
504
PORT
0
o
0
o
0
b"
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
""" " o
0
o
1
2"b7obo
0
b
0
o
4 9
9 8 b',000
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
1 ,0 00 ,0 00
POT
0
o
0
d
0
b
0
o
0
0
1
Too ,obo
0
o
0
b
0
" b""
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
W W TR
0
b
0
o
0
b'"""
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
b
0
~o '""""
0
0
0
d
0
b
0
b" '
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
RAIL
0
b
0
o
0
b' '""
0
0
0o'"
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
0
1
2,00 0'
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
2
4,000
S C H
1
i,bbb
1
1 ,000
0
"b ""
0
0
5
5,000
0
o
5
5 76 ob
0
o
0
" d
0
0
1
i ,bbb
5
5 7o b'b
0
0
3
3 76 oo
2
2/000
0
b"
0
0
1 2
1 2 ,000
0
0
0
0
3 5
3 5 ,000
Total
27
2,169
29
10 7,32 4
4
2,198
7
578
1 0
5,387
1 0
100.771
1 5
5,781
1
o
0
o
1
3
2 0
24,557
5 7
220 ,3 10
9
3,343
200
"i ,1 1T.27 8
1 3
2 02,5 89
1 2
1 ,7 2 6
1
1 9 2
1 0 7
6 2 9,07 3
3 4
6,733
5
6,005
56 2
2 ,43 0 ,0 1 6
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-82
SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-15
Potential Exposure and Losses from 500-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated
Rural
Unincorporated
Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
6,996
25,564
3,868
1,062
17,608
678
32,516
3,408
0
294
8,584
37,323
5,345
85,289
2,609
2,994
1,250
8,950
11,357
4,639
260,334
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building Count
3,086
9,180
1,715
567
6,457
243
9,994
1,178
0
82
2,735
12,878
1,745
28,438
875
967
648
4,426
3,785
1,553
90,552
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
$868,709
$2,584,170
$482,773
$159,611
$1,817,646
$68,405
$2,813,311
$331 ,607
$0
$23,083
$769,903
$3,625,157
$28,045
$8,005,297
$246,313
$272,211
$182,412
$1,245,919
$1,065,478
$437,170
$25,027,216
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building Count
104
405
46
47
278
23
336
35
0
3
259
368
16
1,126
77
60
16
151
213
144
3,707
Potential
Exposure
(x$1000)
$466,097
$1,815,089
$206,158
$210,640
$1,245,913
$103,079
$1,505,851
$156,860
$0
$13,445
$1,160,760
$1,649,266
$3,805
$5,046,394
$345,091
$268,902
$71 ,707
$676,737
$954,602
$645,365
$16,545,760
4-83
SECTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-16
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
from 500-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
C a rlsb ad
C hula Vista
C o ro na d o
D e 1 M a r
El Cajon
E ncin ila s
E sco n d id o
ImperialBeach
La M esa
Lemon Grove
N a tio n a 1 C ily
0 cea nsid e
Po w a y
San D lego (C Ily )
San Marcos
S a n te e
Solana Beach
U n in corpora ted
Rural
U nincorporated
Urban Core
Vista
Total Number
Total Expo su re
Data
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1 000)
N urn ber
E x posure (x $ 1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x $ 1 000}
N umber
E x posure {x $1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x $ 1 000)
N um ber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x$ioOOJ
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $ 1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1 000}
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
E x posure (x $1 000)
N um ber
E x posure (x $1 000)
N umber
E x posure (x $1000)
N umber
E x posure (x $ 1 000)
N umber
Ex posure (xSIOOO)
x$1000)
AIR
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
6
1
200,000
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
d
0
o
3
600,000
0
o'
0
o
4
800,000
8 RDG
6
1 ,150
18
3,449
1
192
3
5>"T
13
2", 49'l
4
766
20
3"j32"
0
o
0
6
0
o'
12
2,299
21
4,024
8
JT533
119
22i¥ob
4
766
9
1 ,724
1
192'
39
7.472
15
2",874
1
192
294
56,330
BUS
0
o
0
o
0
6
0... ...
1— —
0
o
0
6
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
6
0
o
0
6
2
4,000
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0 "
0
o
3
6,000
COM
0
d
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
d
0
d
0
0
0
d
0
d
2
TJo'b"
0
d'
3
6,000
0
d
2
4,000"
0
0 "
1
2,000
0
o"
0
d
8
16,000
ELEC
0
d
1
10,000
0
0
0
0
1
i"d","bod'
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
"" o
0
o
0
o
0
d
0
6
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o"
0
d
2
20,000
EM ER
0
o
1
2,0 do"
0
0
1
2 ,6 6 6
2
T'Jo'o"
0
6
2
"T'oo'b
0
o
0'"'"'o
0
o
1.......................
4
1,000"
1
""•TOOO
2
"4,000
0
d
0
d
0
o
4
8,000
1
2~000
2
4,000
21
42,000
GOVT
0
o
1.— — ..
1
2,000
0
o
3
eTd'b" 6"
0
d
5._...._...
0
o
0
o
0
d
2
T.d'o'o
4.......................
0
d
8
16,000
0
d"
1
"2"",doo
0
d
1
2,000
1
"V.'oo'b"
2
4,000
29
58,000
H OS P
0
o
1
100,000
0
0
0
d"
3
3"d"d",'ob"b
0
d
2
2bo7b"d"b
0
o
0_.
0
o
0
o
1
i"b"o,6"6"b"
0
d
3
"300,000
2
200,000
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
12
1,200,000
IN F R
20
20
30
48
2
7
4
4
9
19
6
5
14
3"l
2
'i
0
o
1
4
1 1
27
37
77
1
3
122
229
6
l"4
5
4
0
o
56
1 93"
20
58
4
10
349
753
PORT
0
o
1
20", bob
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0"... d
0
d
1
2 0 ,000
0
d
0
b
49
'980 |00 0""
0
o
0
d
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
d
51
1,020,000
POT
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
b "
1...........................
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
d
1
"i'odioob"
0
d
0
b
0
d
0
d
0
o
0
o
2
200,000
W W TR
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
b" " '
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
d
0
o
0
b
0b
0
o
0
o
0
'o
0
o
0
0
RAIL
0
d
0
b
0
o
0
'"" o
0
b
0
b
0
d
0
d
0
o
0
d
0
' d
i•••-——•
0
b
1
'£, oo'b
0
0
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
"" b
1
"2, bob
3
6,000
S C H
1
i~oo"o
3
3,'doO
0
0
0
0
8
8 ,o"b"b
0
b
1 1
i""i','bb"b
0
b
0o'"""'
0
d
2
2,000
6
6 ,000
1
i"',"o"'6"b"
5
' 5,ood
2
2,od d
0
d
0
b
13
13.000
1
i.OOO""
4
4,000
57
57,000
Total
27
2","i"69
56
140,497
4
2,198
8
2,578
40
332,510
11
100,771
54
228,863
2
1
0
o
1
4
29
30,327
77
332,100
11
4",53"5
315
1,440,030
14
202,781
17
7,729
1
192
1 1 7
632,665
38
7,932
14
14,202
835
3,482,083
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-84
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
4.4.2.6 Rain-Induced Landslide
Steep slope data from SANDAG dated 1995, for all of San Diego County, and soils data for San Diego
County were combined and modeled to determine areas susceptible to rain-induced landslides. Soils that
are prone to movement were determined from the database, and combined with areas that have greater
than 25% slope, which are prone to sliding. The combination of these two factors gives a general idea of
landslide susceptibility. Localized hard copy maps developed by Tan were also reviewed. The TAN
landslide susceptibility modeling takes into account more information, such as past landslides, landslide-
prone formations, and steep slope. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this
information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count
(both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial
occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical
infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These
results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction.
Table 4.4-17 provides a breakdown of potential exposure for high-risk rain-induced landslide hazard by
jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-18 provides a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility exposure for
high risk. Table 4.4-19 provides a breakdown of potential exposure for moderate risk rain-induced
landslide by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-20 provides a breakdown of potential infrastructure and critical
facility exposure for moderate risk. Approximately 210,000 people may be at risk from the rain-induced
landslide hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the rain-induced
landslide hazard in San Diego County include 22,346 low-income households and 57,564 elderly persons.
4-85
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-17
Potential Exposure from Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (High Risk) by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban
Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
455
0
0
0
35
24
751
0
0
199
0
0
2,515
137,095
1,441
35.
0
9,130
1,509
92
153,281
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
204
0
0
0
22
7
295
0
0
56
0
0
874
48,049
457
12
0
3,573
314
32
53,895
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$57,426
$0
$0
$0
$6,193
$1,971
$83,043
$0
$0
$15,764
$0
$0
$169,170
$13,525,794
$128,646
$3,378
$0
$1,005,800
$88,391
$9,008
$15,094,582
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
56
1,072
4
0
0
93
4
1
1,234
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$8,963
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$8,963
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$317,358
$4,804,382
$17,927
$0
$0
$416,798
$17,927
$4,482
$5,596,801
4-86
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-18
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (High Risk) by Jurisdiction
Ju r is d ictio n
C arlsba d
C hu la V is la
C oronacfo
D el M ar
E 1 C a jo n
E n cin ila s
Escondido
ImperialBeach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
N a iio n a 1 C ity
Oceans id e
P o w a y
San D ie g o (C ily )
San Marcos
S a n te e
Solana Beach
U nincorporated
Rural
U n in corpora ted
Urban Core
V ista
Total Number
Total Exposure
Data
N u m b e r
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
E x posure (x S 1 000)
N u m b e r
E x posure (x S 1 000)
N u m b e r
Exposure (x $ 1 0 00)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x $ 1 0 00)
N u m b ef
E xposure (xSIOOO)
N u m b e r
E x posure (x $ 1 000)
N u m b e r
E x posure (x S 1 000)
N umber
E x posure (xSIOOO)
N umber
E x pos ure {x $1 000)
N u m b e r
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x $ 1 0 00 )
N umber
Expos ure (xSIOOO)
N u m b e r
Exposure (x $ 1 00 0}
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
E x posure (x S 1000)
N u m b e r
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
(x$ 1 000)
AIR
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
" 0
0
6
0......
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
6
0
0
0.........
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
B R D G
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
"" o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
1 7
37257
0
0
0
o
0
0
3
575
0o'
0
0
20
3,832
B US
0
0
0
o
0
6"
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
6 '
0
o
0
o
0
"o
0
0
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o'
0, ......
0
0
0
0
COM
0
o'
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
1 0
foTo'oo
0
0
1
2,0 oT
0
o
2
47 boo
0
6"
0
0
1 3
26,000
E L EC
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
"" o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
' 6
0
b
0
0
0
6
0
b
0
o
0
" o
0
0
0
0
E M E R
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
"b
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
6...„.._.__.
1
2,000
0
o
0
""o ""
3
6 .000
0
b
0
o
1 0
20,000
G 0 VT
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
"" "o
0
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
o
4
8,b b "6
0
0
0
o "
0
o
1
2,000"
0
' o
0
o
5
10,000
H 0 S P
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
b "
0
b
o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
o
0.—-
0
b
0
"""b
0
0
0
0
IN F R
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
" 0
0
o""" '
0
o
o
0
b
0
b
0
b
93
221
0
0
0
'" b"
0
5"
26
82
2' 3 ™ '""
0
o
1 2 1
306
PORT
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b"
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
b'
0
b "
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
0
0o
0
0
0
o
0
0
POT
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o'
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
"o
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
0
W W TR
0
" b
0
b
0
b
0'" 0
0
b ""
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
o "'
0
o
0
0
RAIL
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b "
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
o
0
b
0
b """
0
' o
0
0
S C H
0
b
0
0
0
o
0
b
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
b
0
o
0
b
0
o
0
o
0
b
22
22,'bbb
0
0
0
" o
0
o
0
b
8
i rood"""
0
0
30
30,000
To U I
0
b
0
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
"" o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
o
1 52
65,478
1
2,000
1
2,000
0
o
35
1 27657
1 0
8,003
0
o
1 9 9
90,138
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-87
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-19
Potential Exposure to Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (Moderate Risk) by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
C hula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban
Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
57
2
0
0
39
6
171
0
0
137
7
0
11,354
10
970
0
0
23,197
35,499
11
71,460
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
30
1
0
0
13
1
71
0
0
24
2
0
4,030
3
286
0
0
4,188
11,039
2
19,690
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$8,445
$282
$0
$0
$3,660
$282
$19,987
$0
$0
$6,756
$563
__ $0
$1,120,165
$845
$80,509
$0
$0
$1,178,922
$3,107,479
$563
$5,528,455
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
0
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
27
0
0
0
0
89
389
0
509
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$0
$4,482
$0
$0
$4,482
$0
$8,963
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$98,302
$0
$0
$0
$0
$398,871
$1,743,381
$0
$2,258,481
4-88
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-20
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from
Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (Moderate Risk) by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
C o ro n ad o
Del Mar
Ei Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Row ay
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
San tee
Soiana Beach 1
Unincorporated
Rural
U n in co rp o ra te d
Urban Core
Vista
Total Number
Total Exposure
Data | AIR
Number i 0
Exposure (x$1000) ! 0
Number : 0
Exposure (x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) I 0
dumber 0
Exposure (x$1 000) | 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1000) i 0
Number j 0
Exposure (x$1000) ! 0
Number j 0
Exposure (x$1 000) i 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) j 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1000) 0
Number ' 0
Exposure (x$1000) j 0
Number , 0
Exposure (x$1000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1000) | 0
Number | 0
Exposure (x$1 000) ' 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1000) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 0
Number j 0
Exposure (x$1000) 0
Number 1
Exposure (x$1 000) ! 200,000
Num ber ..
Exposure (x$1000) | 0
Number I 0
Exposure (x$1000) I 0
! 1
x$1000) i 200,000
BRDG BUS
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
192 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
20 0
3,832 0
29 0
5,556 0
0 0
0 i 0
50 ! 0
9,580 I 0
COM
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ELEC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EMER
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6,000^
8
16,000
0
0
11
22,000
GOVT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
2
4,000
HOSP
0
0
0
L o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
1
100,000
INFR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
39
108
36
71
0
0
75
179
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
POT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WWTR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
2
4,000
SCH
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4,000
12
12,000
0
0
16
16,000
Total
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
192
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
213,940
90
141,628
0
0
158
355,759
4-89
SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment
4.4.2.7 Wildfire/Structure Fire
Wildfire loss estimates were determined using the CDF-FRAP Fire Threat Model. CDF-FRAP modeled
wildland fire threat for the state of California in 2008. This model was used in GIS to profile the fire
hazard throughout the County, then used in overlays to determine loss estimates. In the model, fire threat
is a combination of two factors; 1) fire rotation, or the likelihood of a given area burning, and 2) potential
fire behavior (fuel rank). These two factors were combined to create five threat classes ranging from little
or no threat to extreme. The fuel ranking methodology assigned ranks based on expected fire behavior for
unique combinations of topography and vegetative fuels under a given severe weather condition (wind
speed, humidity, temperature, and fuel moistures). The procedure made an initial assessment of rank
based on an assigned fuel model and slope, then potentially increases ranks based on the amount of ladder
and/or crown fuel present to arrive at a final fuel rank. Fire rotation class intervals were calculated from
fifty years of fire history on land areas grouped into "strata" based on fire environment conditions. These
strata are defined by climate, vegetation, and land ownership. The Fire rotation interval is the number of
years it would take for past fires to burn an area equivalent to the area of a given stratum. Fire rotation
interval for a given stratum is calculated by dividing the annual number of acres burned into the total area
of the stratum. Finally, fire rotation values were grouped into classes. The larger fire rotation values
correspond to less frequent burning. CDF calculated a numerical index of fire threat based on the
combination of fuel rank and fire rotation. A 1-3 ranking of fuel rank was summed with the 1-3 ranking
from rotation class to develop a threat index ranging from 2 to 6. This threat index was then grouped into
four threat classes. Areas that do not support wildland fuels (e.g. open water, agriculture lands, etc.,) were
omitted from the calculation, however areas of very large urban centers (i.e. concrete jungles) were left in
but received a moderate threat value. This data was updated as requested by the Cities of San Marcos and
Escondido, to more accurately reflect their fire risks and is reflected in the hazard modeling process and
subsequent mapping. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information,
resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar
exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the
aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools,
hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and
presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction.
Wildfire can create a multi-hazard effect, where areas that are burned by wildfire suddenly have greater
flooding risks because the vegetation that prevented erosion is now gone. Watershed from streams and
rivers will change and floodplain mapping may need to be updated. Also, air quality issues during a large-
scale fire would cause further economic losses than only the structural losses described below. Road
closures and business closures due to large-scale fires would also increase the economic losses shown
below. Areas burned during the 2007 firestorm that are susceptible to flooding or debris flow as a result
of a significant rain event have been mapped and these maps have been provided to the appropriate
jurisdictions.
Tables 4.4-21 through 4.4-25 provide a breakdown of potential exposure to extreme, very high, high and
moderate wildfire hazard by jurisdiction with Table 4.4-26 depicting the combined totals of exposure
from wildfire, and Tables 4.4-26 through 4.4-30 provide a breakdown of potential infrastructure and
critical facility exposure for the same series of fire hazards. Table 4.4-30 gives the combined total of all
wildfire hazard levels. As demonstrated in the October 2007 fires, a major fire(s) in the region can
4-90
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
indirectly impact the entire community. Consequently, approximately 2,900,000 people may be at risk
from the wildfire/structure fire hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the
wildfire/structure fire hazard in San Diego County include 180,377 low-income households and 313,198
elderly persons.
4-91
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-21
Potential Exposure from Extreme Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Corona do
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated -Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
0
17
0
0
0
5
65
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
0
0
0
13,286
2,251
13
15,658
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
0
5
0
0
0
1
27
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5,254
628
5
5,920
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$0
$1,408
$0
$0
$0
$282
$7,601
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
SO
$1,479,001
$176,782
$1,408
$1,666,480
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
187
23
0
211
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
soso
$0
$4,482
$0
$0
$0
$838,078
$103,079
$0
$945,639
4-92
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-22
Potential Exposure from Very High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
ChulaVista
Corona do
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated -Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
3,219
9,048
19
7
97
1,267
846
65
0
188
0
1,402
3,720
20,153
2,236
222
76
47,816
41,461
654
132,496
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
1,294
2,795
0
5
36
424
328
0
0
79
0
470
1,141
6,990
818
89
33
18,209
10,036
217
42,964
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$364,261
$786,793
$0
$1,408
$10,134
$119,356
$92,332
$0
$0
$22,239
$0
$132,305
$348,023
$1,967,685
$230,267
$25,054
$9,290
$5,125,834
$2,825,134
$61,086
$12,121,198
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
33
3
0
0
2
14
14
0
0
1
0
7
4
208
8
3
1
658
180
7
1,143
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$147,896
$13,445
$0
$0
$8,963
$62,744
$62,744
$0
$0
$4,482
$0
$31,372
$20,162
$932,194
$35,854
$13,445
$4,482
$2,948,959
$806,706
$31,372
$5,124,818
4-93
SECTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-23
Potential Exposure from High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Ch ul a Vista
Corona do
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated -Rural
Unincorporated - Uitoan Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
9,255
3,840
0
16
118
1,159
1,660
37
404
0
9
2,795
4,826
30,997
11,312
2,658
L_ 5°
8,518
8,068
792
86,514
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
4,298
1,224
0
9
42
419
654
7
177
0
2
849
1,696
10,710
3,578
938
22
3,197
2,504
277
30,603
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$1,209,887
$344,556
$0
$2,534
$11,823
$117,949
$184,101
$1,971
$49,826
$0
$563
$238,994
$703
$3,014,865
$1,007,207
$264,047
$6,193
$899,956
$704,876
$77,976
$8,138,024
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
72
18
0
1
3
18
17
0
1
0
5
21
32
280
30
18
1
108
76
12
713
Potential Exposure
(xSIOOO)
$322,682
$80,671
$0
$4,482
$13,445
$80,671
$76,189
$0
$4,482
$0
$22,409
$94,116
$116,278
$1,254,876
$134,451
$80,671
$4,482
$484,024
$340,609
$53,780
$3,168,316
4-94
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-24
Potential Exposure from Moderate Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Corona do
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Diego (City)
San Marcus
Santee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated -Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
76,454
169,128
18,868
3,332
97,629
55,064
134,126
26,346
56,195
25,023
55,054
161,361
36,900
1,251,231
60,659
50,473
11,413
71,028
255,909
90,913
2,707,106
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
31,464
57,512
8,097
1,836
35,464
21,388
43,671
9,139
25,030
6,871
15,749
58,273
11,904
473,008
20,218
17,705
5,585
24,474
86,104
28,908
982,400
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$8,857,116
$16,189,628
$2,279,306
$516,834
$9,983,116
$6,020,722
$12,293,387
$2,572,629
$7,045,945
$1,706,745
$4,433,344
$16,403,850
$3,044,913
$133,151,752
$5,691,367
$4,983,958
$1,572,178
$6,889,431
$24,238,276
$8,137,602
$276,012,096
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
1,229
1,963
428
178
1,348
1,103
1,745
310
946
47
881
1,824
106
17,500
735
535
303
792
2,970
1,106
36,049
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$5,508,009
$8,797,577
$1,918,168
$797,743
$6,041 ,332
$4,943,315
$7,820,567
$1,389,327
$4,239,688
$208,246
$3,948,378
$8,174,621
$554,400
$78,429,750
$3,294,050
$2,397,710
$1,357,955
$3,549,506
$13,310,649
$4,956,760
$161,637,749
4-95
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-25
Potential Exposure from Wildfire (Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme Combined) Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Imperial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National City
Oceanside
Poway
San Dieao (City)
San Marcos
Santee
Sdana Beach
Unincorporated - Rural
Unincorporated - Urban Core
Vista
Total
Exposed
Population
88,928
182,033
18,887
3,355
97,844
57,495
136,697
26,448
56,599
25,023
55,063
165,558
47,823
1,302,402
74,207
53,353
11,539
140,648
307,689
92,372
2,943,963
Residential Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
37,056
61,536
8,097
1,850
35,542
22,232
44,680
9,146
25,207
6,871
15,751
59,592
15,289
490,708
24,614
18,732
5,640
51,134
99,272
29,407
1,062,356
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$10,431,264
$17,322,384
$2,279,306
$520,775
$10,005,073
$6,258,308
$12,577,420
$2,574,599
$7,095,771
$1,706,745
$4,433,907
$16,775,148
$4,303,854
$138,134,302
$6,928,841
$5,273,058
$1,587,660
$14,394,221
$27,945,068
$8,278,071
$298,825,773
Commercial Buildings at Risk
Building
Count
1,334
1,984
428
179
1,353
1,135
1,776
310
947
47
886
1,852
682
17,989
773
556
305
1,745
3,249
1,125
38,655
Potential Exposure
(x$1000)
$5,978,588
$8,891 ,693
$1,918,168
$802,224
$6,063,740
$5,086,730
$7,959,499
$1,389,327
$4,244,170
$208,246
$3,970,786
$8,300,108
$3,056,519
$80,621,301
$3,464,354
$2,491,825
$1,366,919
$7,820,567
$14,561,043
$5,041,913
$173,237,720
4-96
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-26
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Extreme Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
J u ris die ti o n
C a rl s b a d
C h ula Vista
C o ro n a d o
Del M ar
E 1 Cajon
E n c i n it a s
E scon did o
Im p eria 1 Be ach
La Mesa
Lemon G rove
N ation al City
0 cea nsid e
P ow a y
S an D leg o (C ity )
S an M arco s
S an tee
S ola na Beach
U n in c o rp o ra te d
R u ra 1
U n in co rp o ra te d
U rba n C ore
V ista
To la 1 N u m b er
To ta 1 E xp os u re
Data AIR
Number j 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) i 0
Number : 0
Exposure(x$1000) : 0
Number ! 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Num ber j 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number ! 0
Exposure(x$1000) ! 0
Number i 0
Exposure(x$1000) ' 0
Num ber ! 0
Expos u re (x$ 1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) : 0
Number i 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) i 0
Number : 0
Expos u re (x$ 1000) 0
Number ! 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 2
E xpos ure (x$1 000) ! 400,000
Number
Exposure(x$1000) I 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) ! 0
2
XS1000) ! 400,000
BRDG
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
4,21 5
0
0
0
0
22
4,21 5
BUS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2 ,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
COM
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 4
2 8,000
0
0
0
0
1 4
28,000
ELE C
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EM ER
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
10 ,000
0
0
0
0
5
10,000
GO VT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HO SP
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IN FR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 14
415
1
4
0
0
1 20
426
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
POT W W TR
0 | 0
0 I 0
0 | 0
0 \ 0
0 0
0 ! 0
0 | 0
0 0
0 ! 0
0 i 0
0 0
0 i 0
0 | 0
0 I 0
0 i 0
0 i 0
0 | 0
o ; o
0 i 0
o ! o
o i o
0 i 0
0 0
o ! o
0 ! 0
0 : 0
0 , 0
0 I 0
0 | 0o ! o
0 ! 0
0 ! 0
0 i 0
o ; o
0 | 0
o ! o
0 • 0
0 j 0
0 i 0
0 I 0
0 0
0 0
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SCH
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2,000
0
0
0
0
2
2,000
Total
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
160
446,630
1
4
0
0
166
446,641
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-97
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-27
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Very High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
J u ris d ic ti o n
C a rl s b a d
C h ula Vista
C o ro n a d o
D el M ar
E 1 C ajo n
E n c i n it a s
E scon did o
!m perial Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
N a tion al City
0 ceanside
P ow a y
S an D iego (C ity )
S an M arco s
S an te e
S ola na Be a ch
U n in co rpo ra te d -
R u ra 1
U n in co rpo ra te d -
Urban Core
V ista
TotalNumber
Data i AIR
Number 0
E xposure (xS1 000) ! 0
Number I 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure (x51 000) 0
Number i 0
E x pos u re (x$ 1 000 ) • 0
Number 0
E x pos ure (x$ 1 00 0) I 0
Number ! 0
Exposure (xS1 000) 0
Number ! 0
Exposure(x$1000) ; 0
Number i 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) 0
Number 0
Exposure (x$ 1 000) j 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000) • 0
Number i 0
Exposure(x$1000) j 0
Number 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) ! 0
Num ber 0
Exposure(xSIOOO) ! 0
Number 0
Exposure(x$1000} ; 0
Num ber 0
Exposure(x$1000) 0
Number 0
Exposure(xSlOOO) 0
Number i 0
Exposure (x$1 000)_ 0
Number
Exposure (x$1 000) ; 2,600,00 0
Number j ,.
Exposure |x$ 1 000) ! 0
Num ber 0
Exposure (x$1 000) 0
13
Tola 1 E xpos ure (x$ 1000) 2.600,000
BRDG
1
1 92
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 92
1
1 92
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
!,533
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 05
20,11 8
9
1,724
0
0
1 25
23,950
BUS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
2
4,00 0
COM
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
34
6 8 ,000
0
0
0
0
36
72,000
ELEC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
E ME R
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
1 00 ,000
6
12 ,000
0
0
5 6
1 12 ,000
GO VT
1
2 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
3
6,0 00
HO SP
1
1 00 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
500,000
2
200,000
0
0
s
800,000
IN FR
2
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
1
2
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
3
8
58
1 34
1
1
1
1
1
2
665
2,173
75
82
1
0
8 15
2.41 7
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
POT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SC H
2
2,000
1
1 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 ,000
3
3 ,0 00
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
23,000
6
6,000
1
1 ,000
37
37,000
Total
7
1 04 ,1 95
4
1,00 1
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
1 93
3
1 96
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
4
1,008
72
1 0,667
1
1
1
1
1
2
897
3,31 7,29 1
99
221 ,806
2
1,000
1,095
3,657,367
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-98
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-28
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
J u ris d ic tio n
C arlsbad
C hula Vista
C o ro n a d o
D el M ar
E 1 C ajo n
E n c i n it a s
E scon dido
Im p eria 1 Be ach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
N a tion al City
0 cea nsid e
P ow a y
S an D iego (C ity )
S an M arcos
S an te e
S ola na Be a ch
U n in co rp o ra te d
R u ra 1
U n in c o rp o ra le d
U rba n C ore
V 1st a
Data
N umber
Exposure (xJIOOO)
N umber
Exposure {x 5 1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIGOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (x$1000)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
N umber
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Tola 1 N u m b er
Tota 1 E xpo s ure (xS 10 00)
AIR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
800 ,000
0
0
0
0
4
800,000
BRDG
0
0
1
192
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
575
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
192
1
192
2
383
13
2,49 1
1
192
0
0
0
0
17
3,257
6
1 ,150
0
0
45
8,622
BUS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
COM
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6,000
2
4,000
1
2 ,000
0
0
2
4 ,000
0
0
0
0
9
18,000
EL EC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
E ME R
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
3
6,000
1
2,000
1
2,000
6
1 2,000
GOVT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
HOSP
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
2
200,000
INFR
1 9
27
2
4
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
1
7
5
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
8
1 6
7
22
51
92
2
4
2
5
0
0
1 36
446
1 6
21
2
1
255
648
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
POT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00 ,000
W WTR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 00 ,000
0
0
1
1 00,000
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SCH
3
3,000
1
1 ,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1 ,000
8
8.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2,000
0
0
1
1 ,000
16
16,000
Total
22
3,027
4
1 ,1 95
0
0
0
0
1
3
7
100,576
8
2,005
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
192
10
2,208
10
1 ,405
75
1 6,582
6
6,1 96
3
2,005
0
0
165
81 7,703
26
303,171
4
3,001
341
1 ,259,270
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-99
SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-29
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Moderate Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
Carlsbad
Chula Vista
C o ro n ad o
Del Mar
El Cajon
Encinitas
Escondido
Im peria 1 Beach
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National Cily
0 ceanside
Row ay
San Diego (City)
S an M arco s
San tee
Solana Beach
Unincorporated
Rural
U n in co rpo ra te d
Urban Core
Vista
Data
Num her
Exposure (x$1 000)
Mum ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (xS1 000)
Num ber
Exposure (x$1 000)
Total Number
Total Exposure (x$1000)
AIR
1
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
200.000
0
0
4
800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
2,600,000
0
0
0
0
20
4,000,000
BRDG
19
3,640
39
7,472
1
192
5
958
37
7,089
11
2,108
67
12,837
1
192
36
6,898
8
1,533
46
8,814
37
7,089
40
7,664
445
85.262
11
2,108
14
2,682
5
958
72
13.795
96
18,394
12
2,299
1,002
191,983
BUS
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
12
24,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
42,000
COM
2
4,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
1
2,000
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
4
8,000
0
0
22
44,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
5
10,000
1
2,000
0
0
44
88,000
ELEC
1
10,000
1
10,000
0
0
0
0
1
10,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
20,000
0
0
0
0
8
80,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
30,000
0
0
0
0
16
160,000
EMER
7
14,000
11
22,000
3
6,000
1
2,000
8
16,000
6
12,000
6
12,000
2
4,000
4
8,000
2
4.000
4
8,000
10
20,000
3
6,000
85
170,000
7
14,000
3
6,000
1
2,000
35
70,000
30
60,000
8
16,000
236
472,000
GOVT
4
8,000
8
16,000
4
8,000
2
4,000
7
14,000
3
6,000
8
16,000
2
4,000
4
8,000
3
6,000
4
8,000
9
18,000
1
2,000
95
190,000
3
6,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
2
4,000
7
14,000
4
8,000
173
346,000
HOSP
1
100,000
7
700,000
1
100,000
0
0
6
600,000
3
300,000
8
800,000
2
200,000
2
200,000
0
0
7
700,000
11
1,100,000
1
100,000
49
4,900,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
5
500,000
6
600,000
3
300,000
114
11,400,000
INFR
89
153
85
165
12
12
10
7
61
153
72
127
68
187
3
2
52
112
23
58
37
87
103
206
22
60
750
1,686
54
136
27
60
27
44
383
1,289
194
415
48
95
2,118
5,056
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
60,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
60,000
POT
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
9
900,000
WWTR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
5
500,000
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
14,000
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
7
14,000
0
0
5
10,000
2
4,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
9
18,000
36
72,000
SCH
18
18,000
59
59,000
9
9,000
2
2,000
47
47,000
23
23,000
43
43,000
8
8,000
25
25,000
10
10,000
20
20,000
37
37,000
22
22,000
339
339,000
20
20.000
15
15,000
9
9,000
38
38,000
100
100,000
38
38.000
882
882,000
Total
143
457,793
215
922,638
31
125,204
20
8,965
171
900,242
126
359,235
204
990,024
18
216,194
124
250,010
46
21,591
125
872,901
222
1,508,295
91
239,724
1,821
7,103,948
99
246,244
64
131,742
44
16,002
557
3,367,085
438
998,808
122
382,394
4,679
19,119,039
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-100
SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment
Table 4.4-30
Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from
(Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme Combined) Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction
Ju rtsdictiort
Carlsbad
Chu la Vista
Coronado
Del Mar
El Cajon
E ncin itas
E s co n d id o
Imperia 1 B each
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
National Cily
0 ceanside
Poway
S an Diego
(C»y)
San Marcos
Santee
Solana Beach
U nincorp orated
Rural
U nincorp orated
Urban Core
Vista
Data
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1 000}
Number
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000{
Number
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
E xposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
E xposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (xSIOOO)
Number
Exposure (x$1 000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Number
Exposure (x$1000)
Total Number
Total Expo su re (xSIOOO)
AIR
1
200.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
200,000
0
0
4
800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
6,000,000
0
0
0
0
37
7,400,000
BRD6
20
3,832
40
7,664
1
192
5
958
37
7,089
15
2.874
68
13,029
1
192
36
6,898
8
1,533
47
9,005
38
7,28 1
42
8.047
466
89,286
12
2,299
14
2,682
5
958
194
37,170
21,268
12
2,299
1,172
224,555
BUS
0
0
2
4.000
0
0
0
0
1
2.000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2,000
2
4.000
1
2,000
12
24,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
0
0
0
0
23
46,000
COM
2
4,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
1
2,000
2
4,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
1
2,000
4
8,000
0
0
27
54,000
2
4,000
2
4,000
0
0
41
82,000
1
2,000
0
0
89
178,000
ELEC
1
1 0,000
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
1
1 0,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
20,000
0
0
0
0
8
80,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
30,000
0
0
0
0
16
1 60,000
EMER
7
14,000
11
22,000
3
6,000
1
2,000
8
1 6,000
6
1 2,000
6
1 2,000
2
4,000
4
8,000
2
4,000
4
8,000
10
20,000
3
6,000
85
t 70,000
S
1 6,000
3
6,000
1
2,000
88
1 76,000
37
74,000
9
1 8,000
298
596,000
GOVT
5
10,000
8
16,000
4
8,000
2
4,000
7
14,000
3
6.000
8
16,000
2
4,000
4
8,000
3
6,000
4
8,000
10
20,000
1
2,000
96
192,000
3
6,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
3
6,000
8
16,000
4
8.000
178
356,000
HOSP
2
200.000
7
700 ,000
1
100,000
0
0
6
600 ,000
3
300 .000
8
800 ,000
2
200,000
2
200,000
0
0
7
700.000
1 1
1,100,000
1
100 ,000
49
4.900,000
2
200,000
0
0
0
0
1 0
1,000,000
1 0
1,000,000
3
300 ,000
124
12,400,000
INFR
110
183
95
185
12
13
10
7
63
159
76
130
76
197
4
2
53
113
23
58
37
87
112
226
31
89
859
1,912
56
142
30
65
28
46
1,184
3,908
285
518
50
96
3,192
8,136
PORT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
60,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
60,000
POT
1
100,000
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100.000
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100.000
1
100,000
0
0
2
200,000
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
1 0
1,000 ,000
WWTR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
100,000
3
300,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
300,000
2
200,000
0
0
10
1,000,000
RAIL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
12,000
1
2,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4,000
7
14,000
0
0
5
10,000
2
4,000
0
0
1
2,000
0
0
2
4,000
9
18.000
35
70,000
SCH
23
23,000
61
61,000
9
9,000
2
2.000
47
47,000
25
25,000
43
43,000
8
8,000
25
25,000
10
10,000
20
20,000
37
37,000
24
24,000
350
350,000
20
20,000
15
15,000
9
9.000
63
63,000
106
1 06,000
40
40,000
937
937,000
Total
172
565,01 5
228
924,849
31
125,204
20
8,965
173
900,248
136
460,004
214
1,092,226
19
216,194
125
250,010
46
21,591
126
873,093
233
1,510,506
103
242,137
1,966
7,231,198
105
252,441
68
133,748
45
16,004
1,618
7,702,078
561
1,523,785
127
386,395
6,114
24,435,691
Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition
4-101
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4.4.2.8 Manmade Hazards
Vulnerability assessment information for manmade hazards is considered sensitive homeland
security information and is provided in a separate confidential document (Attachment A).
4.5 MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL ASSESSMENT
It should be noted that individual risk assessment maps were completed for each of the 18
participating incorporated cities as well as the unincorporated County. Hazard profile maps were
created at a local (1:2,000) scale, complete with land use information, critical facility information,
infrastructure and hazard areas for each of the 19 jurisdictions. Jurisdictional HMWG leads were
presented copies of these maps to provide to their Local Mitigation Planning teams. The local
teams utilized these maps to help identify their Jurisdictional Goals, Objectives, and Mitigation
Measures. Several of the local goals, objectives, and action items identified in the proceeding
section (Section 5) relate directly to these risk assessment maps. Due to concern of sensitivity of
information depicted on these localized maps, only the County-scale maps are included in the
Plan.
4.5.1 Analysis of Land Use
San Diego County covers 4,264 square miles and is located in the southernmost corner of the
state, bordering Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. There are 18 jurisdictions in the County with a
total of over 888 thousand households in the region and a total population of 2,813,833 (2000
Census Bureau data). Existing land use data (Figure 4.5.1) was utilized in the hazard profiling
process. Forecast land use information for 2030 from the Regional Economic Development
Information system (REDI) was evaluated in analyzing future development trends. Existing land
use consists of mainly residential, commercial and industrial in the western (urban core) portion
of the county. The eastern area (unincorporated rural) is spotted with residential surrounded by
park and 'not in use' areas. The forecast land use describes residential land use becoming the
most predominant land use in the urban core of the county and expanding largely into the eastern
portion of the county. In the eastern portion of the county, Native American Reservations and
parks will make up the rest of the land use designations.
4-102
EXISTING LANDUSE
COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
LEGEND:
2007 Landuse
AGRICULTURE
COMMERCIAL AND OFFICE
EDUCATION/INSTITUTIONS
M INDUSTRIAL
BB MILITARY
BB PARKS AND RECREATION
RESIDENTIAL
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNI-
jjj§ CATION AND UTILITIES
UNDEVELOPED
•I W/47ER
Base Layers:
| | Incorporated City Boundary
Streams
Freeways
Major Roads
I Lakes
OVERVIEW MAP:
SOURCES SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries. Rivers, Lakes. 2007 Landuse]
THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESSED
OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
Copyright SanGIS All Rights Reserved
This product may contain information from SANDAG Regional
information System which cannot be reproduced without the
written permission of SANDAG. This product may contain informationwhich has been reproduced with permission
granted by Thomas Brothers Maps
KAFire Servicesttasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation Plan^Existing Land use \COSD_Exi si ing Land use mxd
16
• Miles
SECTIONFOUR
Within the county, there are 18 incorporated cities and the County (as well as a participating Fire
Protection District), all of which contributed to the risk assessment analyses for the San Diego
County Hazard Mitigation Plan. Wildfire and flood were identified as the most significant risks to
the San Diego region. However, all hazards are addressed in the Mitigation Plan. Each
jurisdiction has unique hazard situations that require additional or unique mitigation measures.
The loss estimates are summarized above in tables that show potential total exposure and/or
losses for each jurisdiction. The Mitigation Strategy (Section 5) approaches each jurisdiction
separately.
4.5.2 Analysis of Development Trends
The San Diego Association of Governments (SanDAG) is a regional planning body whose
membership includes all 18 incorporated cites and the County of San Diego. SanDAG plays a
key role in regional coordination efforts. In 2004 the SanDAG Board of Directors adopted a
Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) that provides a strategic framework for the San Diego
Region. It encourages cities and the county to increase residential and employment
concentrations in areas with the best existing and future transit connections, and to preserve
important open spaces "Smart Growth"). City general plans are being aligned with the RCP as
they are revised.
Many of the jurisdictions in San Diego County are close to being "built-out" under their general
plans. A few representative examples will illustrate the trends throughout the region:
• The City of San Diego has less than four percent (4%) of its land available for
development. For the City of San Diego this means that the focus is shifting form how to
develop new lands to how to reinvest in existing communities (City of San Diego General
Plan, March 2008). The City's General Plan takes hazard mitigation into consideration in
the Public Facilities, Services and Safety Element by discussing disaster preparedness
(preparation for natural and man-made disasters as well as preparations for restoration of
municipal services) and seismic safety.
• The City of Poway's Plan calls for the preservation of open space and the maintenance of
the City's rural character. (Poway Comprehensive Plan: General Plan). Accordingly,
future development "in Poway should be concentrated in parts of the City other than the
rural hillside areas and existing open space should be protected." This is intended to
limit growth to the "enhancement of existing developed and developing areas."
• The City of National City has only 0.8% (113 acres) of land vacant and available for
development. It has adopted the SanDAG Smart Growth concept. Additional
opportunities for future development may include a change to an existing use within a
built-up area, rebuilding sites with more intense uses or building on under-utilized sites.
(City of National City General Plan, Chapter 2 Land Use).
• The City of Chula Vista also subscribes to the SanDAG Smart Growth concept. Chula
Vista was one of the fastest growing cities in the State during the 1990s and the early
initial years of the 21st century. This growth occurred mostly in the eastern portion of the
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SECTIONFOUR
City on large, vacant tracts of land. Western Chula Vista is for the most part already
developed. Chula Vista's emphasis is shifting from the development of vacant lands in
the eastern portion of the City to revitalizing the already developed areas.
"Redevelopment will play a prominent role in the City's evolution" (City of Chula Vista
General Plan, Chapter Five, Land Use Element).
• The City of Encinitas still contains a number of underdeveloped or undeveloped areas
that can accommodate additional homes or businesses. It is the intent of the City to
achieve a balance among the various land uses but also between urban development and
the natural environment. (City of Encinitas General Plan March 2007). Among the
things the City seeks to accomplish with this plan the "reduction of loss of life, injury,
and property damage that might result form flooding, seismic hazards and other natural
and man-made hazards that need to be considered in future land-use planning and
decision making."
• The County of San Diego will manage growth in the unincorporated areas through the
use of zoning regulations, building codes and the permit process (San Diego County
General Plan). Hazard mitigation measures to minimize landslides, flooding, and other
natural and man-made hazards are found in the plan. The 2005 Multi-Jurisdictional
Hazard Mitigation Plan has been included into the General Plan by reference.
The result of this is that much of the new development in the near term will occur in the
unincorporated portion of San Diego County. In the near future development trends will shift
towards the redevelopment of urban cores. Hazards mapped in these areas include wildfire,
flood, earthquake, and dam failure. The two most prevalent hazards related to development trends
appear to be the increasing density in downtown San Diego near the Rose Canyon Fault Zone
(earthquake and liquefaction hazard) and the expansion of the urban/wildland interface by new
development throughout the county, but especially in east and south county (wildfire hazard). It
should also be noted that high-rise residential and commercial development has increased
significantly in the downtown San Diego and Golden Triangle areas and these developments
present a potential new type of structural fire hazard risk.
The population is estimated to increase to approximately 3,984,753 in 2030 (SANDAG, 2008)
(Figure 4.5.2). The forecast land use describes residential land use becoming the most
predominant land use in the urban core of the county and expanding largely into the eastern
portion of the county.
The original plan predicted that near term development (that development that would occur over
the course of the four year life of the plan) would be concentrated mostly in the unincorporated
urban core and the southeastern portion of San Diego County in and around the City of Chula
Vista. For the first few years this prediction appeared to be accurate. Beginning in 2008, the
economic downturn resulted in a significant slow-down within the region in terms of growth and
caused a very large downturn in median home prices. It is estimated that the downturn resulted in
a $4 billion loss to San Diego County as a result of the change it caused in consumer spending
habits. During this time the median price of a home in San Diego County dropped from
approximately $800,000 to approximately $500,000 (a 37.5% decrease).
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SECTIONFOUR
2008 saw the unemployment rate rise to 7.6% in San Diego with the loss of 56,500 jobs by
January of 2009. This was the worst job loss in San Diego since 1974. In 2008 there were fewer
than 3000 residential building permits issued. The normal average is 14,000. By April of 2009
the total number of unemployed in San Diego had reached 135,000, for and unemployment rate
of 8.6%. (National Association of Counties "A Snapshot of Large, Urban Counties" April, 2009)
A consequence of this is that many of the mitigation actions originally intended to be completed
had to be postponed or dropped from consideration due to a lack of available funding.
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SICTIOHFOUR
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4-108
UNINCORPORATED
S.D.COUNTY
POPULATION GROWTH
COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING
Profiling Hazards
LEGEND:
Change in Population
between 2010 and 2020
0-1,000
1,001 -3,000
!• 3,001 -8,000
•• 8,001 -17,043
Base Layers:
| | Incorporated City Boundary
Streams
/\/ Freeways
Major Roads
Lakes
OVERVIEW MAP:
16
• Mile
SOURCES SANGIS (Roads, Incorporated Crty Boundaries, Rivers Lakes Dams)Sandag (Population Growth)
THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESSED
OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSECopyright SanGIS All Rights Reserved
This product may contain information from SANDAG Regional
information System which cannot be reproduced without !hewritten permission of SANDAG This product may contain information
granted by Thomas Brothers Maps
K \Fire Services\tasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation Manipulation Growtn\COSD_PopulattonGrowth mxd
SICTIONFOUR
Data Limitations
It should be noted that the analysis presented here is based upon "best available data". See
Appendix B for a complete listing of sources and their unique data limitations (if any). Data used
in updates to this plan should be reassessed upon each review period to incorporate new or more
accurate data if/when possible.
4-111
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4-112