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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2011-06-21; City Council; 20589 PART2B; 2010 UPDATE SD COUNTY HAZARD MITIGATION PLANSECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.3.5 Rain-Induced Landslide 4.3.5.1 Nature of Hazard Landslides occur when masses of rock, earth, or debris move down a slope, including rock falls, deep failure of slopes, and shallow debris flows. Landslides are influenced by human activity (mining and construction of buildings, railroads, and highways) and natural factors (geology, precipitation, and topography). Frequently they accompany other natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Although landslides sometimes occur during earthquake activity, earthquakes are rarely their primary cause. The most common cause of a landslide is an increase in the down slope gravitational stress applied to slope materials (oversteepening). This may be produced either by natural processes or by man's activities. Undercutting of a valley wall by stream erosion or of a sea cliff by wave erosion are ways in which slopes may be naturally oversteeped. Other ways include excessive rainfall or irrigation on a cliff or slope. Another type of soil failure is slope wash, the erosion of slopes by surface-water runoff. The intensity of slope wash is dependent on the discharge and velocity of surface runoff and on the resistance of surface materials to erosion. Surface runoff and velocity is greatly increased in urban and suburban areas due to the presence of roads, parking lots, and buildings, which have zero filtration capacities and provide generally smooth surfaces that do not slow down runoff. Mudflows are another type of soil failure, and are defined as flows or rivers of liquid mud down a hillside. They occur when water accumulates under the ground, usually following long and heavy rainfalls. If there is no brush, tree, or ground cover to hold the soil, mud will form and flow down-slope. 4.3.5.2 Disaster History Landslides and landslide prone sedimentary formations are present throughout the coastal plain of western San Diego County. Landslides also occur in the granitic mountains of East San Diego County, although they are less prevalent. Ancient landslides are those with subdued topographic expressions that suggest movements at least several hundred and possibly several thousands of years before present. Many of these landslides are thought to have occurred under much wetter climatic conditions than at present. Recent landslides are those with fresh or sharp geomorphic expressions suggestive of active (ongoing) movement or movement within the past several decades. Reactivations of existing landslides can be triggered by disturbances such as heavy rainfall, seismic shaking and/or grading. Many recent landslides are thought to be reactivations of ancient landslides. Areas where significant landslides have occurred are: the Otay Mesa area, Oceanside, Mt. Soledad in La Jolla, Sorrento Valley, in the vicinity of Rancho Bernardo and Rancho Penasquitos, along the sides of Mission Gorge (San Carlos and Tierrasanta), western Santee, the Fletcher Hills area of western El Cajon, western Camp Pendleton, and the east side of Point Loma. Some of the more significant historical coastal bluff landslides have occurred along north La Jolla (Black's Beach), Torrey Pines, Del Mar, and Encinitas. Landslides tend to be more widespread in these areas where the underlying sedimentary formations contain weak claystone beds that are more susceptible to sliding. 4-35 UNINCORPORATED S.D.COUNTY RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDE COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING Profiling Hazards LEGEND: Soil Slip Susceptibility Moderate Landslide Susceptibility ^ Most Susceptible Marginally Susceptible Geohazards Layers LANDSLIDES W% SLIDE PRONE FORMATIONS STEEP SLOPES (+25%) Gabbroic Soils > 15% Base Layers: Incorporated City Boundary /\S Freeways Major Roads Z3 Lakes OVERVIEW MAP: LOS ANGELES/ SAN BERNARDINO RANG? FIGURE NO. 4.3.5 l "f Ttai-ii.ie and l.anrl I •-• A 16 I Miles SOURCES. SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries, Rivers. Lakes. Landslides.Slide-Prone Formations] County Of San Diego (Soil-Slip Susceptibility. Landslide Susceptibility. Steep Slopes, Gabbroic Soils) THIS MAP/DATA IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESSFOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE Note This product may contain information from the SANDAG Regional Information System which cannot be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG This product may contain information reproduced with permission granted by RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® to SanGIS This map is copyrighted by RAND MCNALLV & COMPANY® It is unlawful to copy or reproduce all or any part thereof whether foi personal use or resale, without the prior, written permission of RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® Copyright SanGIS2009- All Rights Reserved Full text of this legal notice can be found at. http //www sangis org/Legal_Notice htm KVFire Servicesftasks/OES HazMil Mitigation Plan/RainlnducedLands!ide/COSD_RamlnducedLandslide mxd SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Remedial grading and other mitigation measures have stabilized many but not all landslides in urban areas and other developments within San Diego County. Published geologic maps and other sources of information pertaining to landslide occurrence may not differentiate between known or suspected landslides. Moreover, published landslide maps (such as those used to compile the landslide areas for this effort) are not always updated or revised to reflect landslides that have been stabilized, or in some cases completely removed. The landslide maps for this study have been compiled for planning and emergency responses preparedness, and the compilation sources may not reflect current or existing conditions. Specific information on historic events is not readily available. The only significant landslide that has occurred since the adoption of the original plan was in October, 2007. The event occurred in La Jolla and resulted in the evacuation of 111 homes, seven of which sustained significant damage with an additional 40 being uninhabitable as the result of the instability of the ground beneath them. The loss was estimated to exceed $25 million. 4.3.5.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude Data used to determine landslide risk were steep slope (greater than 25%), soil series data (SANDAG, based on USGS 1970s series), and soil-slip susceptibility from USGS. Because landslide data in GIS format was not available for the entire county, a model was run using USGS soils and steep slope data to determine landslide risk areas for the entire County. Tan Landslide Susceptibility Maps that depict steep slope areas, landslide formations, and landslide susceptible areas based on a combination of slope, soils and geologic instability were also used in the analysis (refer to Appendix B for complete data matrix). As shown in Figure 4.3.5, the location and extent of landslide hazard areas are generally concentrated along canyons near the coastal areas with steep slopes. The western portion of the county shows the soil-slip susceptibility data, while the eastern portion of the county shows the results of the model used to determine landslide risk for areas that were not included in the soil- slip susceptibility model. Housing development on marginal lands and in unstable but highly desirable coastal areas has increased the threat from landslides throughout San Diego County. 4-36 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.3.6 Liquefaction 4.3.6.1 Nature of Hazard Liquefaction is the phenomenon that occurs when ground shaking causes loose soils to lose strength and act like viscous fluid. Liquefaction causes two types of ground failure: lateral spread and loss of bearing strength. Lateral spreads develop on gentle slopes and entails the sidelong movement of large masses of soil as an underlying layer liquefies. Loss of bearing strength results when the soil supporting structures liquefies and causes structures to collapse. 4.3.6.2 Disaster History Liquefaction is not known to have occurred historically in San Diego County, although liquefaction has occurred in the Imperial Valley in response to large earthquakes (Magnitude 6 or greater) originating in that area. Although San Diego is one of several major California cities in seismically active regions, ground failures or damage to structures has not occurred as a consequence of liquefaction. Historically, seismic shaking levels have not been sufficient to trigger liquefaction. Paleoseismic indicators of liquefaction have been recognized locally, and several pre-instrumental (prior to common use of seismographs) earthquakes could have been severe enough to cause at least some liquefaction. 4.3.6.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude Recognizing active faults in the region, and the presence of geologically young, unconsolidated sediments and hydraulic fills, the potential for liquefaction to occur has been long recognized in the San Diego area. The regions of San Diego Bay and vicinity are thought to be especially vulnerable. The potential exists in areas of loose soils and/or shallow groundwater in earthquake fault zones throughout the County. Figure 4.3.6 displays the location and extent of areas with a risk of liquefaction. Data used to profile liquefaction hazard included probabilistic PGA data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and a Scenario Earthquake Shake map for Rose Canyon from the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), along with existing liquefaction hazard areas from local maps (refer to appendix B for complete data matrix). Liquefaction hazards were modeled as collateral damages of earthquakes using HAZUS-MH, which uses base information and NEHRP soils data to derive probabilistic peak ground accelerations much like the PGA map from USGS. Soils were considered because liquefaction risk may be amplified depending on the type of soil found in a given area. The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) rates soils from hard to soft, and give the soils ratings from Type A through Type E, with the hardest soils being Type A, and the softest soils rated at Type E. Liquefaction risk was considered high if there were soft soils (Types D or E) present within an active fault zone. Liquefaction risk was considered low if the PGA risk value was less than 0.3, and hard soils were present (Types A-C). For example, an area may lie in a PGA zone of 0.2, which would be a low liquefaction risk in hard soils identified by the NEHRP. However, if that same PGA value is found within a soft soil such as Type D or E, a PGA of 0.2, when multiplied by 1.4 or 1.7 (amplification values for type D and E soil, shown below), would become a PGA value of at least 4-39 SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 0.28 to 0.3. This would increase the liquefaction risk to high. Areas where soil types D or E are located are illustrated in Figure 4.3.6. Soil Amplification Factors PGA 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Soil Type A 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 B 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 c 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.00 1.00 D 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.10 1.00 E 2.50 1.70 1.20 0.90 0.80 4-40 SANvji-vii VS MARCOS ^CAESCONDIDO INCORPORATED S.D.COUNTY UNINCORPORATED S.D.COUNTYSOUANA BEACH \ DEL ,PMAR CHULA AVISTA IMPERI BEAC LIQUEFACTION COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING Profiling Hazards LEGEND: Earthquake Faults: Fault ^^— Zoned Earthquake Fault Liquefaction Layers H Liquefaction Layers Peak Ground Acceleration (2% in 50 yrs) 0.18 - 0.5 (Low Liquefaction Risk) 0.51 -1.60 (High Liquefaction Risk) Base Layers | | Incorporated City Boundary /\/ Freeways Major Roads Streams Lakes OVERVIEW MAP: FIGURE NO. 4.3.6 Depanmmt of Pta™*nt and I-am) I «• DPLU CIS J* 3.75 7.5 15I Miles SOURCES SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries. Rivs County of San Diego (Liquefaction Layers) USGS (Peak Ground Acceleration) State of California (Earthquake Faults) THIS MAP/DATA IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE Note This product may contain information from the SANDAG Regional Information System which cannot be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG This product may contain information reproduced with permission granted by RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® to SanGIS This map is copyrighted by RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® It is unlawful to copy or reproduce all or any part thereof, whether for personal use or resale, without the prior, written permission of RAND MCNALLY & COMPANY® Copyright SanGIS 2009 -All Rights Reserved Full text of this legal notice can be found at http /Mww sangis org/Legal_Notice htm K./Fire Services/tasks/OES HazMit Mitigation PlarVLiquefaction/COSDJ-iquefaction mxd SECTIOIJFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.3.7 Structure/Wildfire Fire 4.3.7.1 Nature of Hazard A structural fire hazard is one where there is a risk of a fire starting in an urban setting and spreading uncontrollably from one building to another across several city blocks, or within hi-rise buildings. A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire spreading through vegetative fuels and exposing or possibly consuming structures. They often begin unnoticed and spread quickly. Naturally occurring and non-native species of grasses, brush, and trees fuel wildfires. A wildland fire is a wildfire in an area in which development is essentially nonexistent, except for roads, railroads, power lines and similar facilities. An Urban-Wildland/Urban Interface fire is a wildfire in a geographical area where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with wildland or vegetative fuels. Significant development in San Diego County is located along canyon ridges at the wildland/urban interface. Areas that have experienced prolonged droughts or are excessively dry are at risk of wildfires. People start more than 80 percent of wildfires, usually as debris burns, arson, or carelessness. Lightening strikes are the next leading cause of wildfires. Wildfire behavior is based on three primary factors: fuel, topography, and weather. The type, and amount of fuel, as well as its burning qualities and level of moisture affect wildfire potential and behavior. The continuity of fuels, expressed in both horizontal and vertical components is also a determinant of wildfire potential and behavior. Topography is important because it affects the movement of air (and thus the fire) over the ground surface. The slope and shape of terrain can change the speed at which the fire travels, and the ability of firefighters to reach and extinguish the fire. Weather affects the probability of wildfire and has a significant effect on its behavior. Temperature, humidity and wind (both short and long term) affect the severity and duration of wildfires. San Diego County's topography consists of a semi-arid coastal plain and rolling highlands, which, when fueled by shrub overgrowth, occasional Santa Ana winds and high temperatures, creates an ever-present threat of wildland fire. Extreme weather conditions such as high temperature, low humidity, and/or winds of extraordinary force may cause an ordinary fire to expand into one of massive proportions. Large fires would have several indirect effects beyond those that a smaller, more localized fire would create. These may include air quality and health issues, road closures, business closures, and others that increase the potential losses that can occur from this hazard. Modeling for a larger type of fire would be difficult, but the consequences of the most recent San Diego fires (Firestorm of October 2003) should be used as a guide for fire planning and mitigation. 4.3.7.2 Disaster History Table 4.3-3 lists the most recent major wildfires in San Diego County. Wildland fires prompted five (5) Proclaimed States of Emergency, and Urban/Intermix Fires prompted three (3) Proclaimed States of Emergency in the County of San Diego in the period 1950-2007. In October of 2003 the second-worse wild-land fire in the history of San Diego County destroyed 332,766 4-43 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment acres of land, 3,239 structures and 17 deaths at a cost of $450M. San Diego County's worst wildfire occurred in October 2007. At the height of the firestorm there were seven fires burning within the County. The fires destroyed 369,000 acres (13% of the County), 2,670 structures, 239 vehicles, and two commercial properties. There were 10 civilian deaths, 23 civilian injuries and 10 firefighter injuries. The cost of fire exceeded $1.5 billion. San Diego County's third worst wildfire in history, known as the Laguna Fire, destroyed thousands of acres in the backcountry in September of 1970. The fire resulted in the loss or destruction of 383 homes and 1,200 other structures ($5.7 million); 225,000 acres of trees and other watershed ($30 million); small dams ($3 million); and bridges and roads ($600,000). The total dollar cost of the Laguna Fire was approximately $40 million. Table 43-3 Major Wildfires in San Diego County Larger than 5,000 acres Fire Conejos Fire Laguna Fire Harmony Fire (Carlsbad, Elfin Forest, San Marcos) La Jolla Fire (Palomar Mtn) Viejas Fire Gavilan Fire (Fallbrook) Pines Fire (Julian, Ranchita) Cedar Fire Paradise Fire Otay Fire Roblar (Pendleton) Mataguay Fire* Horse Fire* Witch Creek Fire* Harris Fire* Poomacha Fire* Ammo Fire* Rice Fire* Date July 1950 October 1970 October 1996 September 1999 January 2001 February 2002 July 2002 October 2003 October 2003 October 2003 October 2003 July 2004 July 2006 October 2007 October 2007 October 2007 October 2007 October 2007 Acres Burned 62,000 190,000 8,600 7,800 10,353 6,000 61,690 280,278 57,000 46,291 8,592 8,867 16,681 197,990 90,440 49,410 21,004 9,472 Structures Destroyed Not Available 382 122 2 23 43 45 5,171 415 6 0 2 Not Available 1,125 255 139 Not Available 208 Structures Damaged Not Available Not Available 142 2 6 13 121 63 15 0 0 0 Not Available 77 12 Not Available Not Available Not Available Deaths 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 14 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 : Information gathered from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection website 4-44 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.3.7.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude CDF-FRAP modeled wildland fire threat for the state of California in 2002. This model was used in GIS to profile the fire hazard throughout the County, and is described in detail below in the Vulnerability Assessment portion of this document. This data was updated as requested by the San Marcos and Escondido jurisdictions, and is reflected in the hazard modeling process and subsequent mapping (refer to Appendix B for the complete data matrix). Figure 4.3.7 displays the location and extent of the risk level for wildfire/structure fire throughout the county, and shows the perimeters of the 2007 fires. It should be noted that the hazard level depicted within the boundaries of the 2007 Wildfires (Figure 4.3.7) will change after CDF re-evaluates these very recently burned areas. After this re- evaluation is complete, it is expected that CDF-FRAP will remodel the fire risk and provide updated risk maps. These updated maps should be included in future revisions of this plan. 4-45 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment This page intentionally left blank. 4-46 STRUCTUREFIRE/WILDFIRE <~r»i INTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MOTION PLANNING Profiling Hazards Wildfire Hazard Level ~j Little or No Threat Moderate Very High Extreme Fire Perimeters incorporated City Boundary Freeways Major Roads *& >--J "' i"r- '" " ) •** ^ Jt • V - UNINCORPORATED S.D.COUNTY SOLANA BEACH ^ DEL ' ^'-'"-JF* - -'~'"f?*«d^JPKfel Miles ^S SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.3.8 Manmade Hazards 4.3.8.1 Nature of Hazard Manmade hazards are distinct from natural hazards in that they result directly from the actions of people. Two types of manmade hazards can be identified: technological hazards and terrorism. Technological hazards refer to incidents that can arise from human activities such as the manufacture, storage, transport, and use of hazardous materials, which include toxic chemicals, radioactive materials, and infectious substances. Technological hazards are assumed to be accidental and their consequences unintended. Terrorism, on the other hand, encompasses intentional, criminal, and malicious acts involving weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) or conventional weapons. WMDs can involve the deployment of biological, chemical, nuclear, and radiological weapons. Conventional weapons and techniques include the use of arson, incendiary explosives, armed attacks, intentional hazardous materials release, and cyber-terrorism (attack via computer). Hazardous Materials Technological hazards involving hazardous material releases can occur at facilities (fixed site) or along transportation routes (off-site). They can occur as a result of human carelessness, technological failure, intentional acts, and natural hazards. When caused by natural hazards, these incidents are known as secondary hazards, whereas intentional acts are terrorism. Hazardous materials releases, depending on the substance involved and type of release, can directly cause injuries and death and contaminate air, water, and soils. While the probability of a major release at any particular facility or at any point along a known transportation corridor is relatively low, the consequences of releases of these materials can be very serious. Some hazardous materials present a radiation risk. Radiation is any form of energy propagated as rays, waves or energetic particles that travel through the air or a material medium. Radioactive materials are composed of atoms that are unstable. An unstable atom gives off its excess energy until it becomes stable. The energy emitted is radiation. The process by which an atom changes from an unstable state to a more stable state by emitting radiation is called radioactive decay or radioactivity. Radiological materials have many uses in San Diego County including: use by doctors to detect and treat serious diseases, use by educational institutions and companies for research, use by the military to power large ships and submarines, and use as a critical base material to help produce the commercial electrical power that is generated by a nuclear power plant. Radioactive materials, if handled improperly, or radiation accidentally released into the environment, can be dangerous because of the harmful effects of certain types of radiation on the body. The longer a person is exposed to radiation and the closer the person is to the radiation, the greater the risk. Although radiation cannot be detected by the senses (sight, smell, etc.), it is easily detected by scientists with sophisticated instruments that can detect even the smallest levels 4-49 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment of radiation. Under extreme circumstances an accident or intentional explosion involving radiological materials can cause very serious problems. Consequences may include death, severe health risks to the public, damage to the environment, and extraordinary loss of, or damage to, property. Terrorism Following a number of serious international and domestic terrorist incidents during the 1990's and early 2000's, citizens across the United States have paid increased attention to the potential for deliberate, harmful terrorist actions by individuals or groups with political, social, cultural, and religious motives. There is no single, universally accepted definition of terrorism, and it can be interpreted in a variety of ways. However, terrorism is defined in the Code of Federal Regulations as "...the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives" (28 CFR, Section 0.85). The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) further characterizes terrorism as either domestic or international, depending on the origin, base, and objectives of the terrorist organization. However, the origin of the terrorist or person causing the hazard is far less relevant to mitigation planning than the hazard itself and its consequences. Terrorists utilize a wide variety of agents and delivery systems. 4.3.8.2 Disaster History Hazardous Material Releases Hazardous materials can include toxic chemicals, radioactive materials, infectious substances, and hazardous wastes. The State of California defines a hazardous material as a substance that is toxic, ignitable or flammable, or reactive and/or corrosive. An extremely hazardous material is defined as a substance that shows high acute or chronic toxicity, carcinogenicity, bio- accumulative properties, persistence in the environment, or is water reactive (California Code of Regulations, Title 22). "Hazardous waste," a subset of hazardous materials, is material that is to be abandoned, discarded, or recycled, and includes chemical, radioactive, and bio-hazardous waste (including medical waste). An accidental hazardous material release can occur wherever hazardous materials are manufactured, stored, transported, or used. Such releases can affect nearby populations and contaminate critical or sensitive environmental areas. Numerous facilities in San Diego County generate hazardous wastes in addition to storing and using large numbers of hazardous materials. There are a total of 13,034 sites with permits to store and maintain chemical, biological and radiological agents, and explosives in the County. Although the scale is usually small, emergencies involving the release of these substances can occur daily at both these fixed sites and on the County's streets and roadways. The major transit corridors of Interstates 5 and 805 have been the locations of the majority of incidents the Hazardous Incident Response Team (HIRT) has responded to in recent years. In fact, the Unified San Diego County Emergency Services Organization's Operational Area Emergency Plan notes in 2000 that 85% of the incidents HIRT responded to were along the 1-5 and 1-805 corridor. Facilities that use, manufacture, or store hazardous materials in California must comply with several state and federal regulations. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act 4-50 SICTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment (SARA Title III), which was enacted in 1986 as a legislative response to airborne releases of methyl isocyanate at Union Carbide plants in Bhopal, India and in Institute, West Virginia. SARA Title III, also known as the Emergency Planning and Community-Right-To-Know Act (EPCRA), directs businesses that handle, store or manufacture hazardous materials in specified amounts to develop emergency response plans and report releases of toxic chemicals. Additionally, Section 312 of Title El requires businesses to submit an annual inventory report of hazardous materials to a state-administering agency. The California legislature passed Assembly Bill 2185 in 1987, incorporating the provisions of SARA Title III into a state program. The community right-to-know requirements keep communities abreast of the presence and release of hazardous wastes at individual facilities. Table 4.3-4 shows a breakdown by jurisdiction of facilities in the County with permits to store and maintain chemical, biological and radiological agents, and explosives. Facilities with EPA ID Numbers are facilities that generate hazardous waste. Table 43-4 Licensed Hazardous Material Sites by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach _a Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated Vista TOTAL Facilities with County Environmental Health Hazardous Material Permits 338 726 79 48 742 346 826 43 299 121 376 508 293 5561 485 264 65 1372 542 13,034 Facilities with EPA ID Numbers 180 356 42 19 378 107 396 23 110 69 198 271 133 2766 270 141 22 556 292 6,329 Facilities with Approved Hazmat Response Plans 242 400 38 25 532 164 560 30 128 93 241 331 166 3367 361 199 29 894 382 8,182 Additional information about the chemicals handled by manufacturing or processing facilities is contained in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) database. The TRI is a publicly available EPA database that contains information on toxic chemical emissions and waste management activities reported by certain industry groups as well as federal facilities. This inventory was established under EPCRA and expanded by the Pollution 4-51 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Prevention Act of 1990. Facilities that exceed threshold emissions levels must report TRI information to the U.S. EPA, the federal enforcement agency for SARA Title HI. Hazardous materials spills and releases in San Diego County have occurred as a result of clandestine drug manufacturing; spills from commercial, military and recreational vessels on the region's waterways; traffic accidents; sewer breaks and overflows; and various accidents/incidents related to the manufacture, use, and storage of hazardous materials by County industrial, commercial and government facilities. Although the following emergency response history for San Diego County chronicles various hazardous materials releases, the incidents do not necessarily indicate the degree of exposure to the public. There were 453 hazardous materials incidents in San Diego County in 2008 that required response by the County Hazardous Incident Response Team (HIRT). Table 4.3-5 indicates the number of incidents that the HIRT responded to in each jurisdiction in 2008. Table 43-5 County of San Diego Department of Environmental Health Hazardous Materials Division HIRT Responses in 2008 City Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated Vista TOTAL RESPONSES IN 2008 Number of Hazardous Materials Responses 16 25 1 0 17 10 8 2 6 2 8 9 7 251 9 6 1 59 14 453 .There has not been significant exposure to the public in San Diego County due to manmade releases of chemical or biological agents, although there have been several smaller-scale incidents. Chemical spills and releases from transportation and industrial accidents have resulted in short-term chemical exposure to individuals in the vicinity of the release. San Diego beaches 4-52 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment are routinely closed because of sewage spills and storm run-off. Bacterial levels can increase significantly in ocean and bay waters, especially near storm drain, river, and lagoon outlets, during and after rainstorms. Elevated bacterial levels may continue for a period of up to 3 days depending upon the intensity of rainfall and volume of runoff. Waters contaminated by urban runoff may contain human pathogens (bacteria, viruses, or protozoa) that can cause illnesses. San Diego experienced its first significant E. coli bacteria outbreak in 10 years after patrons ate tainted food at local area restaurants in 2003. In 1992 and 1993 a similar outbreak occurred in San Diego County, which resulted in the death of a child after he ate tainted food from a Carlsbad fast-food restaurant. Additionally, in the early 1980s a hepatitis outbreak associated with poor food handling techniques resulting in the closure of a major restaurant in Mission Valley and the implementation of a food-handler certification program by the San Diego County Health Department. The only known release of radiological agents in the County was the result of an accident at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS). In 1981, an accidental "ignition" of hydrogen gases in a holding tank of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) caused an explosion - which bent the bolts of an inspection hatch on the tank, allowing radioactive gases in the tank to escape into a radioactive waste room. From there, the radioactive material was released into the atmosphere. The plant was shut down for several weeks following the event (W.I.S.E. Vol.3 No.4 p.18). This incident occurred during the plant's operation of its Unit 1 generator, which has since been decommissioned. No serious injuries occurred. On February 3, 2001 another accident occurred at SONGS when a circuit breaker fault caused a fire that resulted in a loss of offsite power. Published reports suggest that rolling blackouts during the same week in California were partially due to the shutdown of the SONGS reactors in response to the 3-hour fire. Although no radiation was released and no nuclear safety issues were involved, the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent a Special Inspection Team to the plant site to investigate the accident. Terrorism While San Diego County has not experienced any high profile attacks by groups or individuals associated with international terrorist organizations, the region has been the site of several incidents with domestic origins. Most notable is the August 1, 2003 arson attack on a mixed-use housing and office development under construction in the University City neighborhood. The blaze, which officials estimate caused around $50 million in damage, was allegedly set by the Earth Liberation Front, a radical environmentalist group. San Diego has been linked to the 9-11 attacks in New York City and on the Pentagon; two of the confirmed hijackers of the commercial aircraft used in the attacks took flight school lessons while living in San Diego. San Diego County has received numerous bomb threats to schools, government buildings, religious sites, and commercial facilities over the years. While the majority of bomb threats are hoaxes, authorities have been required to mobilize resources and activate emergency procedures on a fairly regular basis in response. 4-53 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment Other Manmade Disasters On September 25th, 1978 San Diego was the scene of one of the worst air disasters in the United States. A mid-air collision between a Cessna 172 and a Pacific Southwest Airlines (PSA) Boeing 727 caused both planes to crash into the North Park neighborhood below. A total of 144 lives were lost including 7 people on the ground. More than 20 residences were damaged or destroyed. In 1984, a gunman opened fire in a San Ysidro McDonald's restaurant, killing 21 people. This event was not considered an act of terrorism as no political or social objectives were associated with this event. 4.3.8.3 Location and Extent/Probability of Occurrence and Magnitude Information related to the probability and magnitude of manmade hazards is considered sensitive homeland security related information. Consequently, this information is provided in a separate confidential document (Attachment A). 4.4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Vulnerability describes how exposed or susceptible to damage an asset is, and depends on an asset's construction, contents and the economic value of its functions. This vulnerability analysis predicts the extent of injury and damage that may result from a hazard event of a given intensity in a given area on the existing and future built environment. Like indirect damages, the vulnerability of one element of the community is often related to the vulnerability of another. Indirect effects can be much more widespread and damaging than direct effects. For example, damage to a major utility line could result in significant inconveniences and business disruption that would far exceed the cost of repairing the utility line. 4.4.1 Asset Inventory Hazards that occur in San Diego County can impact critical facilities located in the County. A critical facility is defined as a facility in either the public or private sector that provides essential products and services to the general public, is otherwise necessary to preserve the welfare and quality of life in the County, or fulfills important public safety, emergency response, and/or disaster recovery functions. Figure 4.4-1 shows the critical facilities identified for the County. The critical facilities identified in San Diego County include 130 hospitals and other health care facilities; 323 emergency operations facilities, fire stations, and police stations; 1,024 schools, 3,732 hazardous material sites, 7 transportation systems that include 40 airport facilities, 1,277 bridges, 23 bus and 38 rail facilities; 68 marinas and port facilities, and 6,801 kilometers of highways; utility systems that include 17 electric power facilities, natural gas facilities, crude and refined oil facilities, 24 potable and waste water facilities, and 113 communications facilities and utilities; 63 dams, 185 government office/civic centers, jails, prisons, military facilities, religious facilities, and post offices (Figure 4.4.1). GIS, HAZUS-MH, and other modeling tools were used to map the critical facilities in the county and to determine which would most likely be affected by each of the profiled hazards. San Diego County covers 4,264 square miles with several different climate patterns and types of terrain, 4-54 SECTIONFQUR Bisk Assessment which allows for several hazards to affect several different parts of the county and several jurisdictions at once or separately. The hazards addressed are described in Section 4.3. 4.4.2 Estimating Potential Exposure and Losses, and Future Development Trends GIS modeling was used to estimate exposure to population, critical facilities, infrastructure, and residential/commercial properties, from coastal storms/erosion, tsunami, structure fire/wildfire, dam failure, landslide, and manmade hazards. The specific methods and results of all analyses are presented below. The results are shown as potential exposure in thousands of dollars, and as the worst-case scenario. For infrastructure, which has been identified as highways, railways and energy pipelines, the length of exposure/impact is given in kilometers. Exposure characterizes the value of structures within the hazard zone, and is shown as estimated exposure based on the overlay of the hazard on the critical facilities, infrastructure, and other structures, which are given an assumed cost of replacement for each type of structure exposed. These replacement costs are estimated using a building square footage inventory purchased from Dun and Bradstreet. The square footage information was classified based on Standard Industrial Code (SIC) and provided at a 2002 census-tract resolution. The loss or exposure value is then determined with the assumption that the given structure is totally destroyed (worst case scenario), which is not always the case in hazard events. This assumption was valuable in the planning process, so that the total potential damage value was identified when determining capabilities and mitigation measures for each jurisdiction. Table 4.4-1 provides abbreviations and average replacement costs used for critical facilities and infrastructure listed in all subsequent exposure/loss tables. Table 4.4-2 provides the total inventory and exposure estimates for the critical facilities and infrastructure by jurisdiction. Table 4.4-3 shows the estimated exposure inventory for infrastructure by jurisdiction. Table 4.4-4 provides an inventory of the maximum population and building exposure by jurisdiction. In addition to estimating potential exposure for structures, at-risk populations were also identified per hazard area. At-risk populations were defined as low-income, disabled and/or elderly and were based upon the 2000 census information. Loss was estimated for earthquake and flood hazards in the County, in addition to exposure. Loss is that portion of the exposure that is expected to be lost to a hazard, and is estimated by referencing frequency and severity of previous hazards. Hazard risk assessment methodologies embedded in HAZUS, FEMA's loss estimation software, were applied to earthquake and flood hazards in San Diego County. HAZUS (a loss estimation software) integrates with GIS to provide estimates for the potential impact of earthquake and flood hazards by using a common, systematic framework for evaluation. This software contains economic and structural data on infrastructure and critical facilities, including replacement value costs with 2002 square footage and valuation parameters to use in loss estimation assumptions. This approach provides estimates for the potential impact by using a common, systematic framework for evaluation. The HAZUS risk assessment methodology is parametric, in that distinct hazard and inventory parameters (e.g. ground shaking and building types) were modeled to determine the impact (damages and losses) on the built environment. The HAZUS-MH models were used to estimate losses from earthquake and flood hazards to critical facilities, infrastructure, and residential/commercial properties, as well as economic losses on several return period events and annualized levels. Loss estimates 4-55 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment used available data, and the methodologies applied resulted in an approximation of risk. The economic loss results are presented as the Annualized Loss (AL) for the earthquake hazard. AL addresses the two key components of risk: the probability of the hazard occurring in the study area and the consequences of the hazard, largely a function of building construction type and quality, and of the intensity of the hazard event. By annualizing estimated exposure values, the AL takes into account historic patterns of frequent smaller events with infrequent but larger events to provide a balanced presentation of the risk. These estimates should be used to understand relative risk from hazards and potential losses. Uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology, arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards and their effects on the built environment. Uncertainties also result from approximations and simplifications that are necessary for a comprehensive analysis (such as incomplete inventories, demographics, or economic parameters). 4-56 • , • • •SAN CARL'SBAH^. 6lDO UNINCORPORATED 5.D.COUU • ' V : • .• • •> SOLANA BEACH DEL MAR ?•* ..."J , ' UNINCftRPORATED * •*-*•'""* S.D.COUNTY • • * '. . •• . • • • t- • ' '. .IT / . -...".>• ' .... •.•: -f- .^—-w— . -. II •X?!1' j>4.*>.^ &z*r% * *. *^RPsr?. • ^^'•••.•--: i • A•« *• *T#F* ^ I-?.*. *^«TA - ' *• • . • . IMPERIAL BEACH CRITICAL FACILITY LOCATIONS COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING Profiling Hazards LEGEND: • Critical Facility Location Base Layers: | | Incorporated City Boundary Streams Freeways Major Roads Lakes Ol/ERWElVM/lP; LOS ANGELES/ RANG5 Pacific Ocean SAN BERNARDINO RIVERSIDE SAN DIEGO IMPERIAL BAJA FIGURE NO. 4.4. '•'t»t»ctvc'^ 16 • Mile: SOURCES. SANGIS (Roads, Incorporated City Boundaries. Rivers, Lakes Dams)FEMA-HAZUS County of San Diego THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE Copyright SanGIS All Rights ReservedThis product may contain information from SANDAG Regional information System which cannol be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG This product may contain informationwhich has been reproduced with permission granted by Thomas Brothers Maps K \Fire Services\tasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation PlarACritical Facilities Localions\COSD_Critic SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-1 Abbreviations and Costs Used for Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Abr. AIR BRDG BUS COM ELEC EMER GOVT HOSP INFR PORT POT RAIL SCH Name Airport facilities Bridges Bus facilities Communication facilities and Utilities Electric Power facility Emergency Centers, Fire Stations and Police Stations Government Office/Civic Center Hospitals/Care facilities Kilometers of Infrastructure. Includes: Oil/Gas Pipelines (OG) Railroad Tracks (RR) Highway (HWY) Port facilities Potable and Waste Water facilities Rail facilities Schools Building Type (where applicable) s1l n/a c1l dl dl c1l dl s1m n/a n/a n/a dl dl dl rmll Average Replacement Cost 200,000,000 191,600 2,000,000 2,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 100,000,000 300 860 3,860 20,000,000 100,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 4-59 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-2 Inventory of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure and Exposure Value by Jurisdiction jurisdiction Data AIR BRDG ELEC EM ER GO VT INFR PORT C a rlsbad C hula Visla C o ro n a d o Del M ar E 1 C ajo n E n c i n it a s E scondido Im perial Beach La M 9 s a Lemon Grove N a lional City Oceans id e P ow a y San Diego (City) San Marcos S an lee S oia na Beach U n in c o rp o ra te d - R u ra 1 Unincorporated - U rb an Core Vista Number 1 Exposure (x$1 000) 200,000 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number ! 0 Expos u re (x$ 1000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) '. 0 Num ber ; 1 Exposure (x$1 000) ; 200,000 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) ; 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 0 Number ! 0 Exposure ( xj 1 000) 0 Number | 0 Exposurefx$1000) 0 Num ber 0 Exposure [x$1 OOOj 0 Num ber 1 Exposure (x$1 000) 200,00 0 Number 0 Exposure {x$1 000) I 0 Number 4 Exposure {xS1 000) | 800.000 Number 0 Ex£osurelx$1 000) ! 0 Num ber 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) 0 Number 0 Exposure{x$1000) 0 Number 33 E xpos ure (x$ 1 000) \ 6,600,000 Number 0 Exposure(x $1000) 0 Num ber j 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Total Number 40 Total E xpos ure x$1000) 18,000,000 33 6,323 44 8,430 2 383 5 958 37 7.089 16 3,066 74 14 ,1 78 1 192 36 6.898 8 1 ,533 47 9,005 43 8,239 45 8.622 498 95,4 17 12 2,299 15 2,874 5 958 227 43,493 11 7 2241 7.2 12 2,299 1 ,277 244,673 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 1 2.000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 12 24,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 23 46,000 2 4,000 2 4,000 1 2 ,000 0 0 2 4,000 1 2,000 4 8.000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 4 8 ,000 0 0 33 66.000 2 4,000 4 8 ,000 0 0 44 88,000 12 24000 0 0 11 3 226,000 1 1 0,000 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20,000 0 0 0 0 9 90,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 30,000 0 0 0 0 1 7 170,000 7 14,000 13 26,000 3 6,000 1 2,000 8 1 6,000 6 1 2,000 8 1 6.000 2 4 .000 4 8 .000 2 4 ,000 4 8,000 10 20,000 4 8.000 89 178,000 8 1 6,000 4 8,000 1 2,000 100 200,000 40 80000 9 1 8,000 32 3 646,000 5 10,000 9 18,000 4 8,000 2 4,000 7 14 ,000 3 6,000 8 16,000 2 4 ,000 4 8,000 3 6,000 4 8 ,000 12 24,000 2 4,000 98 196,000 3 6 ,000 3 6,000 2 4,000 3 6,000 7 1 4000 4 8,000 185 370,000 2 200 ,000 7 700,000 1 1 00,000 0 0 6 600,000 3 300 ,000 8 800 ,000 2 200 ,000 2 200 ,000 0 0 7 700,000 1 1 1,1 00,000 1 1 00 ,000 50 5,000,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 1 5 1.500.000 1 0 1000000 3 300,000 1 30 1 3,000,000 153 247 11 9 255 28 51 14 10 64 161 85 145 83 21 1 4 2 53 11 3 24 60 37 88 124 250 34 98 959 2,1 68 59 149 33 72 28 46 1 ,334 4,402 320 .3 597 .25 53 101 12,749 42,540 0 0 1 20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 100,000 0 0 0 0 62 1 ,240,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 1 ,360,000 2 200,000 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,0001 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 1 100000 0 0 11 1,100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 4,000 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 ,000 8 1 6,000 0 0 5 1 0,000 2 4 ,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 2 4000 1 0 20,000 39 78,000 33 33 ,000 75 75,000 9 9,000 2 2.000 47 47 ,000 25 25 ,000 46 46 ,000 8 8.000 2 5 25 ,000 1 0 1 0 ,000 20 20 .000 43 43,000 25 25,000 361 361 ,000 28 28 ,000 1 5 1 5 ,000 9 9,000 86 86 ,000 1 15 1 15000 40 40 ,000 1,022 1,022,000 239 677,570 274 965,686 48 1 25,434 24 8,968 1 74 900,250 1 47 462. 211 234 1,004,389 19 21 6,1 94 1 25 250.01 1 47 21 ,593 1 32 9 75,093 259 1,52 3,489 1 12 1 47,7 20 2,182 8,262.585 1 16 260,448 76 1 41,946 46 18,004 1 ,847 8,56 1,89 S 624 1,360,01 4 1 31 388,400 15,997 26,305,213 4-60 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-3 Inventory of Exposure for Infrastructure Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unicorporated - Rural Unicorporated - Urban Core Vista Data Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Number Oil/Gas Pipeplines Railroad Tracks Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1OOO) Number Exposure (x$1OOO) Number Exposure (x$1OOO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Number Exposure (x$10OO) Total Number Total Exposure (x$1000) HWY 55 212 61 234 12 46 1 3 39 150 32 124 52 20O 0 1 26 99 14 54 21 81 57 22O 25 95 514 1,983 35 136 17 67 10 40 1,107 4,272 136 523 23 88 1O,777 41,601 Replacen 87 26 52 15 16 5 8 3 19 6 43 13 27 8 4 1 16 5 6 2 12 4 49 15 9 3 354 106 15 4 15 4 15 4 117 35 152 46 24 7 1,352 405 RR 1 1 9 6 6 0 0 5 4 7 6 1O 8 3 3 0 0 12 10 4 4 4 4 18 15 0 0 92 79 9 8 1 1 3 2 11O 94 33 28 7 6 620 533 Total 153 247 119 255 28 51 14 1O 64 161 85 145 83 211 4 2 53 113 24 60 37 88 124 250 34 98 959 2,168 59 149 33 72 28 46 1,334 4,402 32O 597 53 101 12,749 42,540 4-61 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-4 Inventory of the Maximum Population and Building Exposure by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos San tee Sdana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 104,707 232,095 23,009 4,591 98,205 64,145 143,071 28,243 56,880 26,114 56,522 179,626 51,126 1,354,013 83,149 56,848 13,547 168,254 333,626 96,100 3,173,871 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 43,723 77,457 9,541 2,537 35,656 24,848 47,044 9,859 25,333 7,224 15,776 64,642 16,339 510,740 27,726 19,681 6,512 60,561 108,042 30,707 1,143,948 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $12,308,025 $21,804,146 $2,685,792 $714,166 $10,037,164 $6,994,712 $13,242,886 $2,775,309 $7,131,240 $1,706,745 $4,440,944 $18,196,723 $4,599,429 $143,773,310 $7,804,869 $5,540,202 $1,833,128 $17,047,922 $30,413,823 $8,644,021 $321,694,551 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 1,559 2,184 470 220 1,360 1,268 1,835 346 952 50 892 1,964 732 18,862 812 582 322 2,177 3,560 1,163 41,310 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $6,986,970 $9,788,033 $2,106,399 $985,974 $6,095,112 $5,682,796 $8,223,920 $1,550,668 $4,266,578 $208,246 $3,997,676 $8,802,059 $3,280,604 $84,533,825 $3,639,140 $2,608,349 $1,443,107 $9,756,661 $15,954,852 $5,212,217 $185,123,188 4-62 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.4.2.1 Coastal Storm/Erosion FEMA FIRM flood hazard data compiled and digitized in 1997 was used to profile the coastal storm/erosion hazard. Specifically, the FEMA FIRM VE zone was used in the hazard modeling process in HAZUS-MH. As discussed earlier, the VE Zone is defined by FEMA as the coastal area subject to a velocity hazard (wave action). The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on the identified hazard areas, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) lifeline infrastructure and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Table 4.4-5 provides a breakdown of potential coastal storm/coastal erosion exposure by jurisdiction. No losses to critical facilities and infrastructure are expected from these hazards. Approximately 1,500 people may be at risk from coastal storm/coastal erosion hazards in San Diego County. 4-63 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-5 Potential Exposure from Coastal Storm/Erosion Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas E scon dido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos San tee Sdana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 14 0 580 17 0 94 0 157 0 0 0 76 0 199 0 0 402 0 0 0 1,539 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 8 0 261 10 0 42 0 64 0 0 0 54 0 128 0 0 167 0 0 0 734 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $2,252 $0 $73,472 $2,815 $0 $11,823 $0 $18,016 $0 $0 $0 $15,201 $0 $36,032 $0 $0 $47,011 $0 $0 $0 $206,621 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $0 $0 $4,482 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13,445 $0 $4,482 $0 $0 $8,963 $0 $0 $0 $31,372 4-64 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.4.2.2 Tsunami Tsunami maximum run-up projections were modeled for the entire San Diego County coastline in 2000 by the University of Southern California, and distributed by the CA Office of Emergency Services. The model was a result of a combination of inundation modeling and onsite surveys to show maximum predicted inundation levels due to tsunami. This was a scenario model, which uses a given earthquake intensity and location to determine resulting tsunami effects. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Table 4.4-6 provides a breakdown of potential exposure by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-7 provides a breakdown of potential exposure to infrastructure and critical facility by jurisdiction. Approximately 35,600 people may be at risk from the tsunami hazard in San Diego County. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by tsunami in San Diego County include: 2,558 low income households and 3,655 elderly persons. 4-65 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-6 Potential Exposure from Tsunami Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas E scon dido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos San tee Sdana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vrsta Total Exposed Population 1,165 83 8,523 1,023 0 388 0 5,225 0 0 1,306 2,108 0 10,294 0 0 324 5,154 35 0 35,628 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 535 26 3,367 542 0 178 0 2,138 0 0 0 1,059 0 6,490 0 0 135 95 11 0 14,576 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $150,603 $7,319 $947,811 $152,573 $0 $50,107 $0 $601,847 $0 $0 $0 $298,109 $0 $1,826,935 $0 $0 $38,003 $26,743 $3,097 $0 $4,103,144 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 23 1 98 35 0 9 0 97 0 0 5 46 0 393 0 0 3 0 1 0 711 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $103,079 $4,482 $439,207 $156,860 $0 $40,335 $0 $434,725 $0 $0 $22,409 $206,158 $0 $1,761,308 $0 $0 $13,445 $0 $4,482 $0 $3,186,489 4-66 SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-7 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Tsunami Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction C a rlsba ri C hula V is la C o ro n ad o D e 1 M a r El C a jo n E n cin ila s E sco n rj id o Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove N a lion a 1 C Uy 0 ce a n side P o w a y San 0 lego (City) San Marcos S a n te e Solatia Beach U n in corpora (e d Rural U n in corpora led Urban Core Vista Total Number Total Exposure Data N LI m bar E x posure (x S 1000) N umber E x posure (x $1 000) Number E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) N irm ber E x posure (x S1000J N U m b e r E x posure (x SI 000) N umber E x posure (x S1000) N umber E x posure (x S1000) N umber E x posure (x $ 1 000} N u m b e r E x posure (x $1 000) N umber E xposure (x S1000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (X S 1 000) N umber E x posure (x SI 0001 N umber E x posure (x S 1 000} N umber E x posure ix 51 000} N umber E xposure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) Mum ber E x posure (x SIOOu) N urn ber E x posure (x $1000} (x$1 000) AIR 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 """"6""""""" 0 o" "" 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 b """ 0 0 B R DG 2 383 1 192 1 192 2 383 0 o' 1 192 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 2"""""383 """"" 3 575" 0 0 7 1 ,341 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 766 0 o 0 ""b 23 4,407 BUS 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 6 0........... 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0, .,.„., 0 0 COM 0 o 0 0 " 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 "6 0 '""6 0 0 0 o'""" 0 0 0 0 0 b" 0 0 0 b" 0 d 0 0 ELEC 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 b "" 0 6" 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 " o" 0 0 EM ER 0 o 0 0 1 2,00 0 1 2.000 " 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 b' 0 b 0 b 0 b"" 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 b 2 4,000 GOVT 0 b 0 0 2 ""Ob o 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 "'0"""~~ 0 o 0 0 1 zTboo 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 (1 0 o 3 6,000 H OS P 0 b 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 """b" 0 o 0 0 1 100,000' 0 0 0 0 0 o" 0 0 0 o 0 b 1 1 00,000 IN FR 4 3 0 0 18 36 3 2 0 b 3 i 0 o 1 1 0 b 0 b 0 """ i 2 3 0 0 10 5 0 0 " 0 0 0 "b 1 1 1 2 0 ' b 42 55 PORT 0 b 1 20,000 0 0 0 o 0 o' 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 b 3 ""eo'obT" 0 o 0 0 49 980,000" 0 " o" 0 "o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 " b 53 1 ,060,000 POT 0 b 0 ' 0 0 b 0 0 0 o 1..__._.... 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 b 0 """"""""b ' 0 o" 0 0 0 '"b 0 0 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 b" 1 100,000 W W TR 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 ""Q"""""" 0 b " 0 0 0o"~~' 0 0 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 6 0 " o " 0 0 RAIL 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 0 0 b 0 b 0,__„,.., 0 b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "o" 0 0 0 0 0 o"""" 0 0 S CH 0 b 0 0 1 i,bb"b 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 1 1,000 0 b 0 o 0"'"'"""b"""" 0 """ o " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 ""b " 2 2,000 Total 6 386 2 20,192 23 7,227 6 2.385 0 o" 5 1 00,1 93 0 o 2 1 .001 0 o 0 6 5 60,384 5 578™ 0 0 68 1 ,083,347 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 768 1 2 0 o 127 1 ,276,462 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-67 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.4.2.3 Dam Failure Dam inundation zones, compiled by FEMA or the National Inventory of Dams throughout San Diego County, and purchased through SanGIS, show areas that would be flooded if each dam failed. The San Diego County Water Authority provided the Olivenhain Dam inundation map. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Table 4.4-8 provides a breakdown of potential exposure by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-9 provides a breakdown of potential exposure to infrastructure and critical facility by jurisdiction. Approximately 241,700 people are at risk from the dam failure hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the dam failure hazard in San Diego County include 13,689 low-income households and 24,316 elderly persons. 4-68 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-8 Potential Exposure from Dam Failure Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 4,113 8,635 0 1,139 0 1,204 47,700 5,526 1,701 0 1,998 33,755 0 75,686 2,481 20,815 40 14,512 21,862 553 241,720 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 1,951 2,973 0 612 0 425 14,323 1,880 731 0 496 11,437 0 28,036 829 6,968 17 3,686 7,304 215 81,883 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $549,207 $836,900 $0 $172,278 $0 $119,638 $4,031,925 $529,220 $205,777 $0 $139,624 $3,219,516 $0 $7,892,134 $233,364 $1,961,492 $4,786 $1,037,609 $2,056,076 $60,523 $23,050,065 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 49 190 0 47 0 35 766 42 19 0 184 285 0 1,206 59 267 2 135 277 16 3,579 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $219,603 $851,523 $0 $210,640 $0 $156,860 $3,432,982 $188,231 $85,152 $0 $824,633 $1,277,285 $0 $5,404,930 $264,420 $1,196,614 $8,963 $605,030 $1,241,431 $71,707 $16,040,004 4-69 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-9 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Dam Failure Hazard by Jurisdiction Ju ris diction C a rl s b a d C h ula Vista C o ro n a d o Del Mar E 1 C ajo n E n c in rt as E scondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon G rove National City 0 ceanside P ow a y San Diego (Cily) San Marcos S a n te e Soiana Beach U n in c o rp o ra te d R u ra 1 U n in c o rp o ra te d U rba n C ore V 1st a Data AIR Number I 0 Exposure (x$ 1000) 0 Number i 0 E xpos ure (x$ 1 000) 0 Number 0 Exposure (xSf 000) ! 0 Number 0 E x p o s u re ( x$ 1 0 0 0 } 0 Num ber 0 E xpos ure (xS 1 000) 0 Num ber : 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) I 0 Num ber j 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) 0 Number 0 Exposure jx$1 000} ! 0 Num ber i 0 Exposure 1x51 000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 0 Number i 0 Exposure 1x51 000} I 0 Number j 1 Exposure (xSI 000) 200,000 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 1 0 Number ; 0 Exposure (x$1 000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure ( x$ 1 000) I 0 Num ber i 0 Exposure (x$1 000) i 0 Num ber [ 1 Exposure (xtt 000) ! 200,000 Number '< 0 Exposure (x$1 000) i 0 Number 0 E x p o s u re { x$ 1 0 0 0 ) 0 Tola 1 N urn b er [ 2 Total E xposure x$1000) i 400,000 BRDG 4 766 1 6 3,066 0 0 3 575 0 0 5 958 33 6,323 1 192 2 383 0 0 26 4,982 17 3,257 0 0 1 20 22,992 1 192 1 2 2,299 0 0 42 8,047 22 4,21 5 2 383 306 58,630 BUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 COM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2.000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 3 6,000 0 0 1 2.000 0 0 0 0 7 14,000 ELEC 0 0 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20,000 EM ER 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 4 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6,000 0 0 8 16,000 0 0 4 8,000 0 0 5 10,000 6 12,000 1 2,000 33 66,000 GO VT 0 01 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 16,000 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 2 4,000 0 0 12 24 ,000 0 0 2 4.000 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 29 58,000 HOSP 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 600,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 12 1 ,200,000 INFR 7 9 23 60 0 0 9 5 0 0 19 13 48 149 3 1 9 12 0 0 22 63 25 62 0 0 286 605 3 4 67 1 30 0 0 68 2 11 76 140 1 0 664 1,465 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 20,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 20,000 PO T 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 300,000 WW TR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 2 2 00 ,0 00 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6,000 SC H 1 1 ,000 1 1 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3,000 1 5 15 ,000 1 1 ,000 0 0 0 0 2 2,000 7 7,000 0 0 1 2 12 ,000 2 2,000 6 6,000 0 0 5 5,000 1 5 15,000 0 0 70 70,000 Total 1 2 1,775 45 218,1 26 0 0 1 3 2,579 0 0 28 1 03,971 1 18 751 ,472 6 3,192 1 1 395 0 0 53 31 ,044 56 222,319 0 0 444 389,597 6 2,196 96 1 28,429 0 0 123 325,258 123 235,356 4 2,384 1,136 2,41 8,094 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-70 SECTiONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.4.2.4 Earthquake, Liquefaction and Earthquake-Induced Landslides The data used in the earthquake hazard assessment were: 100-, 250-, 500-, 750-, 1000-, 1500-, 2000-, and 2500- year return period USGS probabilistic hazards. Soil conditions for San Diego County as developed by USGS were also used, which allowed for a better reflection of amplification of ground shaking that may occur. The HAZUS software model, which was developed for FEMA by the National Institute of Building Services as a tool to determine earthquake loss estimates, was used to model earthquake and flood for this assessment. This software program integrates with a GIS to facilitate the manipulation of data on building stock, population, and the regional economy with hazard models. PBS&J updated this model in 2003 to HAZUS-MH (Multiple Hazard), which can model earthquake and flood, along with collateral issues associated with each model, such as liquefaction and landslide with earthquakes. This software was not released prior to the beginning of the planning process; however, PBS&J performed vulnerability and loss estimation models for earthquakes and flood for this project using the newer model. Additionally, the earthquake risk assessment explored the potential for collateral hazards such as liquefaction and earthquake-induced landslides. Three cases were examined, one case with shaking only, a second case with liquefaction potential, and a third with earthquake-induced landslides. Once the model was complete, the identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/loss estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Results for residential and commercial properties were generated as annualized losses, which average all eight of the modeled return periods (100-year through 2500-year events). For critical facility losses it was helpful to look at 100- and 500-year return periods to plan for an event that is more likely to occur in the near-term. In the near term, a 500-year earthquake would cause increased shaking, liquefaction and landslide, which would be expected to increase loss numbers. Exposure for annualized earthquake included buildings and population in the entire county because a severe or worst case scenario earthquake could affect any structure in the County. Furthermore, the annualized earthquake loss table also shows potential collateral exposure and losses from liquefaction and landslide separately; this is the additional loss from earthquake due to liquefaction or landslide caused by earthquakes and should be added to the shaking-only loss values to get the correct value. (The collateral liquefaction and landslide loss results for critical facilities were included with earthquake in Tables 4.4-11 and 4.4-12, to plan for an event that is more likely to occur in the near-term as discussed above). Table 4.4-10 provides a breakdown of potential exposure and losses due to annualized earthquake events by jurisdiction. Tables 4.4-11 and 4.4-12 provide a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility losses from 100-year and 500-year earthquakes, respectively. Approximately 3,100,000 people may be at risk from the annualized earthquake and earthquake-induced liquefaction hazards. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the earthquake hazard in San Diego County include 13,689 low-income households and 24,316 elderly persons. 4-71 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-10 Potential Exposure and Losses from Annualized Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated- Rural Unincorporated- Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 104,707 232,095 23,009 4,591 98,205 64,145 143,071 28,243 56,880 261,114 56,522 179,626 51,126 1,354,013 83,149 56,848 13,547 168,254 333,626 96,100 3,408,871 Building Count 43,723 77,457 9,541 2,537 35,656 24,848 47,044 9,859 25,333 7,224 15,776 64,642 16,339 510,740 27,726 19,681 6,512 60,561 108,042 30,707 1,143,948 **Potentia I Loss from Shaking (x$1000) 2,649 3,086 1,309 235 1,739 1,962 2,743 680 1,026 510 874 4,336 776 32,046 934 1,076 573 886 8,963 1,597 $67,999 "Potential Additional Loss from Liquefaction (x$1000) 0 332 156 0 0 0 0 149 0 0 56 646 0 1,648 0 0 62 0 1 0 $3,050 "Potential Additional Loss from Landslide (x$1000) 524 586 208 46 319 536 399 94 121 56 203 1,156 141 8,721 113 279 108 152 2,113 251 $16,126 Potential Exposure (x$1000) 12,308,025 21,804,146 2,685,792 714,166 10,037,164 6,994,712 13,242,886 2,775,309 7,131,240 2,033,556 4,440,944 18,196,723 4,599,429 143,773,310 7,804,869 5,540,202 1,833,128 17,047,922 30,413,823 8,644,021 $322,021,362 Building Count 1,559 2,184 470 220 1,360 1,268 1,835 346 952 50 892 1,964 732 18,862 812 582 322 2,177 3,560 1,163 $41,310 "Potentia I Loss from Shaking (x$1000) 998 772 224 110 726 659 1,149 87 318 127 420 849 257 12,428 518 252 312 149 1,123 411 $21,892 "Potential Additional Loss from Liquefaction (x$1000) 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 34 0 725 0 0 15 0 0 0 $832 "Potential Additional Loss from Landslide (x$1000) 352 262 75 27 218 209 339 34 82 32 132 293 82 4,231 153 108 84 43 329 116 $7,202 Potential Exposure (x$1000) 6,986,970 9,788,033 2,106,399 985,974 6,095,112 5,682,796 8,223,920 1,550,668 4,266,578 224,085 3,997,676 8,802,059 3,280,604 84,533,825 3,639,140 2,608,349 1,443,107 9,756,661 15,954,852 5,212,217 $185,139,027 281.5 **Same numbers as in 2004, no additional information available at this time 4481.7 4-72 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-11 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 100-Year Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction J uris diction Data AIR B RDG BUS COM ELEC EMER GOVT HOSP INFR PORT POT WWTR RAIL SCH TO TAL C a rlsb ad C hula Vista C o ro n a d o Del M ar E 1 C ajo n E ncin itas E scon did o Im peria 1 Be ach La Mesa L em on Grove National City 0 cea nsid e P ow a y S an Diego (City) S an M arco s S a n te e S ola na Beach U n in co rp o ra te d - R u ral U n in c o rp o ra te d - U rban C ore Vista N u m be r Exposu re xJ1 00 0) Number Exposu re xS100 0) Number Exposure x$1000) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) N u m b e r Exposu re (xS100 0) Number Exposu re x$1 00 0) Number Exposu re xS 1 00 0) Number Exposu re x$100 0) N u m be r Exposure x$1000) Number Exposu re x$ 1 00 0) N u m be r E xposu re x$1 00 0) N u m be r Exposu re (xS1 00 0) Number Exposu re x$1 00 0) Number Exposu re (x$100 0) Number E xposu re (x$1 00 0) Number E xposu re (x$ 100 0) Number E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0) N u m be r E xposu re x$ 1 00 0) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number E xposu re x J1 00 0) Tota 1 N u m b er Total E xpos ure (x$ 1000) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 3,000,000 0 0 0 0 1 5 3,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 5,748 0 0 0 0 30 5,748 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 38,000 0 0 0 0 19 38,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 52,000 0 0 0 0 26 52,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 800,000 0 0 0 0 8 800,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 437 1 ,647 0 0 0 0 437 1 ,647 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 28.000 0 0 0 0 28 28,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 565 4,027,395 0 0 0 0 565 4,027,395 4-73 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-12 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 500-Year Earthquake Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Data AIR BRDG BUS COM ELEC EMER GOVT HOSP INFR PORT POT WWTR RAIL SCH TOTAL C a rlsb ad Chula Vista C o ro n ad o Del M ar E 1 Cajon E ncin itas E scon did o Im p eria 1 Be ach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City 0 cea nsid e P ow a y S an Diego (C ity ) San Marcos S an le e S ola na Beach U n in co rp o ra te d - Rural U n in co rp o ra te d - Urban C ore Vista lumber E x posu re {x$1 00 0) Number Exposu re (x$1000) dumber E xposu re (x$1 00 0) Wu m be r Exposy re (x$100 0) N u in b e r Exposu re (x$t 00 0} Number Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0} Number Exposu re (x$1000) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) N u m b e r E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0) Number E xposu re (x$ 1 00 0) Nu m be r Exposu re (x$100 0) Number Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) Number Exposure (xJIOOO) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) Number Exposu re (x$100 0) Number Exposu re (x$1 00 0) Number Exposure (xJIOOO) N u m be r Exposu re (x$ 1 00 0} TotalNumber To ta 1 E xpo s u re (x$1000) 1 200.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 200,000 0 0 2 400.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 6,000,000 0 0 0 0 34 6,800,000 33 | 0 6,323 ! 0 0 | 0 0 ! 0 1 : 0 192 i 0 5 ! 0 958 I 0 0 ! 0 0 ! 0 16 | 0 3,066 ! 0 71 | 1 13,604 2,000 0 : 0 0 i 0 0 | 0 o ! o 0 | 0 o : o 0 : 0 0 ! 0 43 | 2 8,239 4,000 0 i 0 0 : 0 115 ! 3 22,034 | 6.000 12 | 0 2.299 ! 0 0 ; 0 0 ; 0 5 ! 0 958 0 188 j 2 36,021 ! 4,000 39 | 0 7472.4 i 0 12 0 2,299 I 0 540 ! 8 103,464 i 16,000 2 4,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 4 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8,000 0 0 15 30,000 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 3 1 62,000 9 18000 0 0 69 138,000 1 10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 40,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20,000 0 0 0 0 7 70,000 7 14,000 0 0 2 4.000 1 2,000 0 0 6 12,000 8 16,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 20,000 0 0 24 48,000 8 16,000 0 0 1 2,000 76 152,000 20 40000 9 18,000 172 344,000 5 1 0,000 0 0 4 8,000 2 4,000 0 0 3 6.000 8 16,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 24,000 0 0 35 70,000 3 6,000 0 0 2 4,000 1 2,000 3 6000 4 8,000 82 164,000 2 200,000 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 3 300,000 8 800,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 ,100,000 0 0 4 400,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 12 1 .200,000 6 600000 3 300,000 52 5,200,000 153 247 0 0 19 30 1 4 1 0 0 0 85 145 83 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 124 250 0 0 239 421 59 14 9 0 0 28 47 1 ,145 3,818 165 252 53 101 2,167 5,681 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 940,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 940,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 1 100.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 100000 0 0 7 700,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 400.000 0 0 0 0 5 500,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 4,0001 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 16,000 0 0 5 1 0,000 2 4,000 0 0 1 2.000 0 0 2 4000 10 20,000 36 72,000 33 33,000 0 0 9 9,000 2 2,000 0 0 25 25,000 46 46.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 43,000 0 0 68 68,000 28 28,000 0 0 9 9,000 63 63,000 45 45000 40 40,000 411 411 ,000 239 677,570 0 0 37 123,222 24 8,968 0 0 1 47 462,21 1 232 1,103,815 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259 1 ,523,489 0 0 562 2,134,455 1 1 6 260,448 0 0 46 18,005 1 ,554 7,942,838 290 820,725 131 388,400 3,637 15,464,145 4-74 SECTIBNFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.4.2.5 Rood Digitized 100-year and 500-year flood maps with base flood elevation (BFE) from the FEMA FIRM program for most of the areas were utilized for this project. Census blocks with non-zero population and non-zero dollar exposure that intersect with these polygons were used in the analysis. For the areas that did not include BFE information, a base flood elevation was estimated for the final purpose of computing the flood depth at different locations of the region as follows: Transect lines across the flood polygon (perpendicular to the flow direction) were created using an approximation method for Zone A flood polygons. Zone A is the FEMA FIRM Zone that is defined as the 100-year base flood. A point file was extracted from the line (Begin node, End node and center point). The Zonal operation in the GIS tool Spatial Analyst (with the point file and a digital elevation model [DEM]) was used to estimate the ground elevation in the intersection of the line with the flood polygon borders. The average value of the End and Begin point of the line was calculated. This value was assumed as the base flood elevation for each transect. A surface model (triangulated irregular network, or TIN) was derived from the original transect with the derived BFE value and the flood polygon. This TIN file approximated a continuous and variable flood elevation along the flood polygon. A grid file was then derived from the TIN file with the same extent and pixel resolution of the DEM (30-meter resolution). The difference of the flood elevation grid file and the DEM was calculated to produce an approximate flood depth for the whole study area. HAZUS-MH based damage functions, in a raster format, were created for each of the occupancies present in the census blocks. A customized Visual Basic (VBA) script was written to assign the ratio of damage expected (function of computed flood depth) for each type of occupancy based on the HAZUS-MH damage functions. HAZUS-MH exposure values ($) in raster format were created using Spatial Analyst. Since not all areas in the census blocks are completely within the flood area, the exposure at risk was weighted and estimated accordingly based on the number of pixels in flood area. Losses were then estimated through multiplication of damage ratio with the exposure at risk for each block. Losses were then approximated based on 100- and 500-year losses (high and low hazards). Table 4.4-13 provides a breakdown of potential exposure and losses by jurisdiction for 100-year flood, and Table 4.4-14 provides a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility losses for 100-year flood by jurisdiction. Table 4.4-15 provides a breakdown, of potential exposure and losses by jurisdiction from 500-year flood, and Table 4.4-16 provides a breakdown of potential infrastructure and critical facility losses by jurisdiction. The loss tables also provide a breakdown of loss ratios for commercial and residential properties by jurisdiction. These loss ratios are determined by dividing the loss values by the exposure values for each jurisdiction, and give a perspective of the potential losses for each jurisdiction for this hazard. For example, a loss ratio value of 0.4 in El Cajon would mean that 40% of the exposed buildings in El Cajon would be lost due to a 100- or 500-year flood. Approximately 113,000 people may be at risk from the 100-year flood hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the 100-year flood hazard in San Diego County include 8,424 low-income households and 15,144 elderly persons. Approximately 215,000 people are at risk from the 4-75 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment 500-year flood hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the 500-year flood hazard in San Diego County include 13,689 low-income households and 24,316 elderly persons. 4.4.2.5.1 Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program Most jurisdictions within San Diego County participate in the National Flood Insurance program. Specific details for each participating jurisdiction are listed below. City of Carlsbad The City of Carlsbad does not participate in the National Rood Insurance Program. City of Chula Vista The City of Chula Vista participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps delineating base flood elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements to be adopted by the City. The Chula Vista Municipal Code has been amended to include the language required by FEMA. City of Coronado The City of Coronado participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM)delineating base flood elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements to be adopted by the City. City of Del Mar The City of Del Mar participates in the National Flood Insurance Program, allowing FEMA to authorize the sale of flood insurance (up to program limits) for businesses and residents within the appropriate flood risk zones. FEMA provides Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) identifying base flood elevations and flood risk zones and provides requirements. All FEMA requirements have been adopted by the City. City of El Cajon The City of El Cajon is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City and as designated by FEMA. The City of El Cajon manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. City ofEncinitas Encinitas participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and is required to adopt and enforce floodplain ordinances that meet FEMA's requirements. In return the NFIP makes federally backed flood insurance available in areas that are prone to flooding (have at least 1% chance of flooding annually). Without Federally backed insurance for flooding, homeowners either can't find flood insurance or the rate is very high. The NFIP is a Federal program administered by FEMA that provides flood insurance, floodplain management, and flood hazard mapping. The City ofEncinitas 4-76 SECTFONFOUR Bisk Assessment Engineering Department manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to address questions regarding the 100- year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Encinitas received updated maps last year. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. The Floodplain Management Regulations in Chapter 23.40 of the Encinitas Municipal Code meet or exceed FEMA guidelines and requirements. City ofEscondido The City ofEscondido does not participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). As part of their property insurance policy the City does purchase flood coverage. The City has a $30,000,000 limit with a deductible of either $250,000 or $100,000 depending upon the specific flood zone. City of Imperial Beach The City of Imperial Beach participates in the NFIP. The staff member with the key role in the program is the Floodplain Administrator. The Administrator determines if a proposed structure would be situated within an area of special flood hazard (usually a 100-year floodplain or floodvvay) as shown on the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). They are usually along the oceanfront, bay-front, or river valley. It is rare if the City receives a building permit application to build within a floodplain. When that occurs, the Administrator requires the finish floor elevation to be above the base flood elevation. In addition there would be a requirement for the applicant's engineer to submit a hydrology study that would show the proposed structure would not raise the base flood elevation. The requirements in the City of Imperial beach follow the rules, regulations and guidelines of the National Flood Insurance Program. City of La Mesa The City of La Mesa is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City and as designated by FEMA. The City of La Mesa manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. City of Lemon Grove The City of Lemon Grove is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the City and as designated by FEMA. The City of Lemon Grove manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. City of National City The City of National City is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City of National City manages the permitting of any 4-77 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements, State of California Department of Water Resources Model Floodplain. Management Ordinance and the City of National City Floodplain Ordinance, and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. City of Oceanside The City of Oceanside participates in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program. The program is monitored through our City Engineering Department which manages the permitting of developments and improvements in the floodplain areas. These areas are identified by Flood Maps that are updated by FEMA. The City has been part of this program since 1991 with our last assessment in 1996. City of Poway The City of Poway participates in the National Flood insurance Program (NFIP). Participation in the NFIP is required to provide our citizens with Federally-subsidized flood insurance. The City's responsibility, as a NFIP participant, is to adopt a floodplain ordinance regulate development in the 100 year floodplain. Any development in the floodplain requires a Floodplain Development permit issued by the City. They estimate there are over 900 residential structures located in the 100-year floodplain. The City of Poway also participates in the Community Rating System (CRS) program which provides our citizens with a 10% reduction in their flood insurance premiums. The amount of reduction is based on our floodplain management activities that are over and above the minimum required by FEMA. City of San Diego The City of San Diego is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City of San Diego manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the FEMA guidelines and requirements and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. Cz'fy of San Marcos The City of San Marcos is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City of San Marcos has adopted a floodplain management ordinance in accordance with the FEMA's rules and regulations. The City manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the guidelines and requirements provided in said ordinance and keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). These maps are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. City of Santee The City of Santee is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City of Santee manages the permitting of any proposed developments and 4-78 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment improvements within the floodplain areas per the City's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance that meets or exceeds FEMA guidelines and requirements. The City of Santee keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) that are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. City of Solatia Beach The City of Solana Beach is a participant in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City also has a Municipal Code (Chapter 17.80; FLOOD DAMAGE PREVENTION OVERLAY ZONE). This ordinance references the Federal Flood Insurance Rate Maps. The City of Solana Beach is currently working with FEMA to ensure their program remains current. City of Vista The City of Vista is a participant in FEMA's National Rood Insurance Program (NFIP). This program provides flood insurance for structures located within the floodplain areas in the city and as designated by FEMA. The City of Vista manages the permitting of any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas per the City's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance that meets or exceeds FEMA guidelines and requirements. The City of Vista keeps up to date copies of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) that are used to assist constituents in answering their questions regarding the 100-year flood elevations and boundaries within the floodplain areas. Any proposed changes to these maps are processed by the City through FEMA. County of San Diego The County of San Diego participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) managed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). To qualify for flood insurance, new construction and substantial improvement to structures located in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) within the County must meet minimum standards established by the NFIP. Additionally, FEMA's Community Rating System (CRS) program enables communities to earn credits for tasks and activities above and beyond minimum NFIP standards. The County has been a participating member under the CRS since September 2007, and has twice successfully reduced insurance premiums in San Diego by five percent. To ensure that the County's Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance reflects the most current standards set forth by the NFIP and to implement higher regulations for development of new or substantially improved structures located within the SFHA, the County's DPW Flood Control Engineering Group has begun the process of updating the Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance. Rancho Santa Fe Fire Protection District Rancho Santa Fe FPD does not directly participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. Being pail of the unincorporated portion of the County of San Diego, residents of Rancho Santa Fe participate in the NFIP through the County's process. 4.4.2.5.2 Continued Compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program Seventeen of the 19 jurisdictions within the San Diego region are members in good standing of the National Flood Insurance Program. They provide FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) to residents and ensure that any proposed developments and improvements within the floodplain areas meet or exceed NFIP standards. Those cities also enforce any regulatory measures related to the 100 year flood zones, submit Letters of Map Revisions (LOMRs) and Letters of Map Amendments (LOMAs) to FEMA as well 4-79 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment as periodically reviewing their compliance with NFIP requirements. The County of San Diego has participated in the Community Rating System (CRS) program (which enables communities to earn credits for tasks and activities above and beyond minimum NFIP standards) since September 2007. All of the 17 jurisdictions that participate in the NFIP will continue to do so. They considered it to be an excellent, cost beneficial way to help mitigate against damaging flood events. 4-80 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-13 Potential Exposure and Losses from 100-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated Rural Unincorporated Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 6,906 5,947 2,853 813 1,870 653 8,367 1,206 0 280 2,854 19,007 3,986 36,042 2,377 1,873 1,124 7,276 10,125 1,988 115,547 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 3,045 2,395 1,227 435 657 234 2,599 408 0 78 893 6,715 301 12,191 794 572 574 3,661 3,358 635 40,772 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $857,168 $674,193 $345,401 $122,453 $184,946 $65,871 $731,619 $114,852 $0 $21,957 $251,380 $1,890,273 $14,390 $3,431 ,767 $223,511 $161,018 $161,581 $1,030,572 $945,277 $178,753 $11,406,977 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 102 153 30 42 36 22 101 14 0 3 118 217 12 523 70 46 13 137 195 94 1,928 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $457,133 $685,700 $134,451 $188,231 $161,341 $98,597 $452,652 $62,744 $0 $13,445 $528,841 $972,529 $1,666 $2,343,929 $313,719 $206,158 $58,262 $613,993 $873,932 $421 ,280 $8,588,603 4-81 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-14 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 100-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction J u r is d ictio n C a rlsb a d C h u la Vis la C o r o n a d o D e 1 M a r E 1 C a jo n E n c in ila s Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove N a tio n a 1 C ity 0 ceanside P o w a y San D ie g o ( C ity ) San Marcos S a n Ie e Solana Beach U nincorporaled Rural U nincorporaled Urban Core V is la TotalNumber Total Exposure Data N y in her E x pos ure (x $ 1 000) N umber E x p o s u re (x $ 1 0 0 0 j N umber E x pos ure (x $ 1 000) N u m b e r Exposure (x$1000) N umber E x pos ure (X $ i 000) N umber E x pos ure (x $ i 000) N umber Exposure (x $ 1 000) N u m b e r E x pos ure (x $ 1 000) N u m b e r E xposure {x $ 1 0 0 6) N umber Exposure (xSIOOOJ N u m bar E x pos ure (x $ 1 000) N umber Exposure (x $ 1 000 j N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N u m b e r E x pos ure (x $ i 000) N umber Exposure ix $ 1 000) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Expos ure (x$1000) N u m b e r Exposure (x $ 1 0 0 0 ) N umber Exposure (x $ 1 000) x $ 1 0 00) A IR 0 o 0 o 0 '" o "" 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 F " 0 o 0 o 1 200,000 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 b~ 0 0 3 60 0 ,00 0 0 0 0 ""'o 4 8 00 ,0 0 0 B R D G 6 i"7'i s b 1 2 2T299 1 "79 2 3 '575 2 3 83 4 766 4 766 0 b 0 " b 0 b 8 l",5"3l 1 7 3,257 7 T,3 4 1 7 4 14,178 3 575 9 1,7 2 4 1 1 92 3 6 6,898 1 4 2,682 0 """ o 2 0 1 38,512 BUS 0 o 0 o 0 ' o 0 0 0 o" 0 0 0 b 0 o " 0 " ¥'" 0 " " 6 0 o 0 b 0 o 1 2 76 o b 0 b 0 b ~~" 0 0 0 0 0 0 0'"'"" 0 1 2,000 COM 0 o 0 o 0 o " 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o""" 0 o 0 b 1 jT'o'o b 0 "6 3 6 ,00 0 0 b 0 o" 0 0 1 2 ,00 0 0 0 0 0 5 10,000 E L E C 0 o 0 b 0 6 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 6 0 """"b" 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o" 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E M E R 0 o 1 2"7b"6"6 0 ""'b'"""" 0 b 0 b 0 ~"o " 0 b 0 b 0 '""" b 0 b 0 b 2 O To 6 1 2 ,'bob ' 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 0 4 8,000 1 2 .000 1 2,000 1 0 20,000 G 0 V T 0 o 1r,"o bo 1 2 ,00 0 0 o 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 b 0 ~'~ b """" 0 0 1 2 7o'bb 3 6 ,000 0 o " 2 4",b bo 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 1 2 ,0 00 1 0 20,000 H 0 S P 0 b 1 Too ,b"o 'b "" 0 " o' 0 o 0o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 "" b"" ~ 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o1 Too ,bb"o 2 20b",0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 400 ,00 0 I N F R 20 20 1 3 2" 5 2 7 4 3 3 4 5 1 6 15 1 o 0 """'d " 1 3 9 24 28 53 1 2" 66 99 6 14 3 1 0 0 5 1 1 7 5 1 8 50 2 5 239 504 PORT 0 o 0 o 0 b" 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 """ " o 0 o 1 2"b7obo 0 b 0 o 4 9 9 8 b',000 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 1 ,0 00 ,0 00 POT 0 o 0 d 0 b 0 o 0 0 1 Too ,obo 0 o 0 b 0 " b"" 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 W W TR 0 b 0 o 0 b'""" 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 b 0 ~o '"""" 0 0 0 d 0 b 0 b" ' 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RAIL 0 b 0 o 0 b' '"" 0 0 0o'" 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 0 1 2,00 0' 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 2 4,000 S C H 1 i,bbb 1 1 ,000 0 "b "" 0 0 5 5,000 0 o 5 5 76 ob 0 o 0 " d 0 0 1 i ,bbb 5 5 7o b'b 0 0 3 3 76 oo 2 2/000 0 b" 0 0 1 2 1 2 ,000 0 0 0 0 3 5 3 5 ,000 Total 27 2,169 29 10 7,32 4 4 2,198 7 578 1 0 5,387 1 0 100.771 1 5 5,781 1 o 0 o 1 3 2 0 24,557 5 7 220 ,3 10 9 3,343 200 "i ,1 1T.27 8 1 3 2 02,5 89 1 2 1 ,7 2 6 1 1 9 2 1 0 7 6 2 9,07 3 3 4 6,733 5 6,005 56 2 2 ,43 0 ,0 1 6 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-82 SICTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-15 Potential Exposure and Losses from 500-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated Rural Unincorporated Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 6,996 25,564 3,868 1,062 17,608 678 32,516 3,408 0 294 8,584 37,323 5,345 85,289 2,609 2,994 1,250 8,950 11,357 4,639 260,334 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 3,086 9,180 1,715 567 6,457 243 9,994 1,178 0 82 2,735 12,878 1,745 28,438 875 967 648 4,426 3,785 1,553 90,552 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $868,709 $2,584,170 $482,773 $159,611 $1,817,646 $68,405 $2,813,311 $331 ,607 $0 $23,083 $769,903 $3,625,157 $28,045 $8,005,297 $246,313 $272,211 $182,412 $1,245,919 $1,065,478 $437,170 $25,027,216 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 104 405 46 47 278 23 336 35 0 3 259 368 16 1,126 77 60 16 151 213 144 3,707 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $466,097 $1,815,089 $206,158 $210,640 $1,245,913 $103,079 $1,505,851 $156,860 $0 $13,445 $1,160,760 $1,649,266 $3,805 $5,046,394 $345,091 $268,902 $71 ,707 $676,737 $954,602 $645,365 $16,545,760 4-83 SECTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-16 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from 500-Year Flood Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction C a rlsb ad C hula Vista C o ro na d o D e 1 M a r El Cajon E ncin ila s E sco n d id o ImperialBeach La M esa Lemon Grove N a tio n a 1 C ily 0 cea nsid e Po w a y San D lego (C Ily ) San Marcos S a n te e Solana Beach U n in corpora ted Rural U nincorporated Urban Core Vista Total Number Total Expo su re Data N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $1 000) N urn ber E x posure (x $ 1 000) N umber E x posure (x $ 1 000} N umber E x posure {x $1 000) N umber E x posure (x $ 1 000) N um ber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x$ioOOJ N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $1 000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $ 1 000) N umber E x posure (x $1 000} N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber E x posure (x $1 000) N um ber E x posure (x $1 000) N umber E x posure (x $1000) N umber E x posure (x $ 1 000) N umber Ex posure (xSIOOO) x$1000) AIR 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 6 1 200,000 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 d 0 o 3 600,000 0 o' 0 o 4 800,000 8 RDG 6 1 ,150 18 3,449 1 192 3 5>"T 13 2", 49'l 4 766 20 3"j32" 0 o 0 6 0 o' 12 2,299 21 4,024 8 JT533 119 22i¥ob 4 766 9 1 ,724 1 192' 39 7.472 15 2",874 1 192 294 56,330 BUS 0 o 0 o 0 6 0... ... 1— — 0 o 0 6 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 6 0 o 0 6 2 4,000 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 " 0 o 3 6,000 COM 0 d 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 d 0 d 0 0 0 d 0 d 2 TJo'b" 0 d' 3 6,000 0 d 2 4,000" 0 0 " 1 2,000 0 o" 0 d 8 16,000 ELEC 0 d 1 10,000 0 0 0 0 1 i"d","bod' 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 "" o 0 o 0 o 0 d 0 6 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o" 0 d 2 20,000 EM ER 0 o 1 2,0 do" 0 0 1 2 ,6 6 6 2 T'Jo'o" 0 6 2 "T'oo'b 0 o 0'"'"'o 0 o 1....................... 4 1,000" 1 ""•TOOO 2 "4,000 0 d 0 d 0 o 4 8,000 1 2~000 2 4,000 21 42,000 GOVT 0 o 1.— — .. 1 2,000 0 o 3 eTd'b" 6" 0 d 5._...._... 0 o 0 o 0 d 2 T.d'o'o 4....................... 0 d 8 16,000 0 d" 1 "2"",doo 0 d 1 2,000 1 "V.'oo'b" 2 4,000 29 58,000 H OS P 0 o 1 100,000 0 0 0 d" 3 3"d"d",'ob"b 0 d 2 2bo7b"d"b 0 o 0_. 0 o 0 o 1 i"b"o,6"6"b" 0 d 3 "300,000 2 200,000 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 12 1,200,000 IN F R 20 20 30 48 2 7 4 4 9 19 6 5 14 3"l 2 'i 0 o 1 4 1 1 27 37 77 1 3 122 229 6 l"4 5 4 0 o 56 1 93" 20 58 4 10 349 753 PORT 0 o 1 20", bob 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0"... d 0 d 1 2 0 ,000 0 d 0 b 49 '980 |00 0"" 0 o 0 d 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 d 51 1,020,000 POT 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 b " 1........................... 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 d 1 "i'odioob" 0 d 0 b 0 d 0 d 0 o 0 o 2 200,000 W W TR 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 b" " ' 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 d 0 o 0 b 0b 0 o 0 o 0 'o 0 o 0 0 RAIL 0 d 0 b 0 o 0 '"" o 0 b 0 b 0 d 0 d 0 o 0 d 0 ' d i•••-——• 0 b 1 '£, oo'b 0 0 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 "" b 1 "2, bob 3 6,000 S C H 1 i~oo"o 3 3,'doO 0 0 0 0 8 8 ,o"b"b 0 b 1 1 i""i','bb"b 0 b 0o'"""' 0 d 2 2,000 6 6 ,000 1 i"',"o"'6"b" 5 ' 5,ood 2 2,od d 0 d 0 b 13 13.000 1 i.OOO"" 4 4,000 57 57,000 Total 27 2","i"69 56 140,497 4 2,198 8 2,578 40 332,510 11 100,771 54 228,863 2 1 0 o 1 4 29 30,327 77 332,100 11 4",53"5 315 1,440,030 14 202,781 17 7,729 1 192 1 1 7 632,665 38 7,932 14 14,202 835 3,482,083 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-84 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment 4.4.2.6 Rain-Induced Landslide Steep slope data from SANDAG dated 1995, for all of San Diego County, and soils data for San Diego County were combined and modeled to determine areas susceptible to rain-induced landslides. Soils that are prone to movement were determined from the database, and combined with areas that have greater than 25% slope, which are prone to sliding. The combination of these two factors gives a general idea of landslide susceptibility. Localized hard copy maps developed by Tan were also reviewed. The TAN landslide susceptibility modeling takes into account more information, such as past landslides, landslide- prone formations, and steep slope. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Table 4.4-17 provides a breakdown of potential exposure for high-risk rain-induced landslide hazard by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-18 provides a breakdown of infrastructure and critical facility exposure for high risk. Table 4.4-19 provides a breakdown of potential exposure for moderate risk rain-induced landslide by jurisdiction, and Table 4.4-20 provides a breakdown of potential infrastructure and critical facility exposure for moderate risk. Approximately 210,000 people may be at risk from the rain-induced landslide hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the rain-induced landslide hazard in San Diego County include 22,346 low-income households and 57,564 elderly persons. 4-85 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-17 Potential Exposure from Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (High Risk) by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 455 0 0 0 35 24 751 0 0 199 0 0 2,515 137,095 1,441 35. 0 9,130 1,509 92 153,281 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 204 0 0 0 22 7 295 0 0 56 0 0 874 48,049 457 12 0 3,573 314 32 53,895 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $57,426 $0 $0 $0 $6,193 $1,971 $83,043 $0 $0 $15,764 $0 $0 $169,170 $13,525,794 $128,646 $3,378 $0 $1,005,800 $88,391 $9,008 $15,094,582 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 56 1,072 4 0 0 93 4 1 1,234 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $8,963 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,963 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $317,358 $4,804,382 $17,927 $0 $0 $416,798 $17,927 $4,482 $5,596,801 4-86 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-18 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (High Risk) by Jurisdiction Ju r is d ictio n C arlsba d C hu la V is la C oronacfo D el M ar E 1 C a jo n E n cin ila s Escondido ImperialBeach La Mesa Lemon Grove N a iio n a 1 C ity Oceans id e P o w a y San D ie g o (C ily ) San Marcos S a n te e Solana Beach U nincorporated Rural U n in corpora ted Urban Core V ista Total Number Total Exposure Data N u m b e r Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber E x posure (x S 1 000) N u m b e r E x posure (x S 1 000) N u m b e r Exposure (x $ 1 0 00) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x $ 1 0 00) N u m b ef E xposure (xSIOOO) N u m b e r E x posure (x $ 1 000) N u m b e r E x posure (x S 1 000) N umber E x posure (xSIOOO) N umber E x pos ure {x $1 000) N u m b e r Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x $ 1 0 00 ) N umber Expos ure (xSIOOO) N u m b e r Exposure (x $ 1 00 0} N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber E x posure (x S 1000) N u m b e r Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x$1000) (x$ 1 000) AIR 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 " 0 0 6 0...... 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 6 0 0 0......... 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 B R D G 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 "" o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 1 7 37257 0 0 0 o 0 0 3 575 0o' 0 0 20 3,832 B US 0 0 0 o 0 6" 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 6 ' 0 o 0 o 0 "o 0 0 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o' 0, ...... 0 0 0 0 COM 0 o' 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 1 0 foTo'oo 0 0 1 2,0 oT 0 o 2 47 boo 0 6" 0 0 1 3 26,000 E L EC 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 "" o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 ' 6 0 b 0 0 0 6 0 b 0 o 0 " o 0 0 0 0 E M E R 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 "b 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 6...„.._.__. 1 2,000 0 o 0 ""o "" 3 6 .000 0 b 0 o 1 0 20,000 G 0 VT 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 "" "o 0 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 o 4 8,b b "6 0 0 0 o " 0 o 1 2,000" 0 ' o 0 o 5 10,000 H 0 S P 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 b " 0 b o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 o 0.—- 0 b 0 """b 0 0 0 0 IN F R 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 " 0 0 o""" ' 0 o o 0 b 0 b 0 b 93 221 0 0 0 '" b" 0 5" 26 82 2' 3 ™ '"" 0 o 1 2 1 306 PORT 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b" 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 b' 0 b " 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 0 0o 0 0 0 o 0 0 POT 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o' 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 "o 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 0 W W TR 0 " b 0 b 0 b 0'" 0 0 b "" 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 o "' 0 o 0 0 RAIL 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b " 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 b 0 b """ 0 ' o 0 0 S C H 0 b 0 0 0 o 0 b 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 b 0 o 0 b 0 o 0 o 0 b 22 22,'bbb 0 0 0 " o 0 o 0 b 8 i rood""" 0 0 30 30,000 To U I 0 b 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 "" o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 1 52 65,478 1 2,000 1 2,000 0 o 35 1 27657 1 0 8,003 0 o 1 9 9 90,138 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-87 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-19 Potential Exposure to Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (Moderate Risk) by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad C hula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 57 2 0 0 39 6 171 0 0 137 7 0 11,354 10 970 0 0 23,197 35,499 11 71,460 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 30 1 0 0 13 1 71 0 0 24 2 0 4,030 3 286 0 0 4,188 11,039 2 19,690 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $8,445 $282 $0 $0 $3,660 $282 $19,987 $0 $0 $6,756 $563 __ $0 $1,120,165 $845 $80,509 $0 $0 $1,178,922 $3,107,479 $563 $5,528,455 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 89 389 0 509 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $0 $4,482 $0 $0 $4,482 $0 $8,963 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $98,302 $0 $0 $0 $0 $398,871 $1,743,381 $0 $2,258,481 4-88 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-20 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure from Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard (Moderate Risk) by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista C o ro n ad o Del Mar Ei Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Row ay San Diego (City) San Marcos San tee Soiana Beach 1 Unincorporated Rural U n in co rp o ra te d Urban Core Vista Total Number Total Exposure Data | AIR Number i 0 Exposure (x$1000) ! 0 Number : 0 Exposure (x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) I 0 dumber 0 Exposure (x$1 000) | 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1000) i 0 Number j 0 Exposure (x$1000) ! 0 Number j 0 Exposure (x$1 000) i 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) j 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1000) 0 Number ' 0 Exposure (x$1000) j 0 Number , 0 Exposure (x$1000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1000) | 0 Number | 0 Exposure (x$1 000) ' 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1000) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 0 Number j 0 Exposure (x$1000) 0 Number 1 Exposure (x$1 000) ! 200,000 Num ber .. Exposure (x$1000) | 0 Number I 0 Exposure (x$1000) I 0 ! 1 x$1000) i 200,000 BRDG BUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 192 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 3,832 0 29 0 5,556 0 0 0 0 i 0 50 ! 0 9,580 I 0 COM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ELEC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EMER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6,000^ 8 16,000 0 0 11 22,000 GOVT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 2 4,000 HOSP 0 0 0 L o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 1 100,000 INFR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 108 36 71 0 0 75 179 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WWTR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 2 4,000 SCH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4,000 12 12,000 0 0 16 16,000 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 192 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 213,940 90 141,628 0 0 158 355,759 4-89 SECTIONFOUR Bisk Assessment 4.4.2.7 Wildfire/Structure Fire Wildfire loss estimates were determined using the CDF-FRAP Fire Threat Model. CDF-FRAP modeled wildland fire threat for the state of California in 2008. This model was used in GIS to profile the fire hazard throughout the County, then used in overlays to determine loss estimates. In the model, fire threat is a combination of two factors; 1) fire rotation, or the likelihood of a given area burning, and 2) potential fire behavior (fuel rank). These two factors were combined to create five threat classes ranging from little or no threat to extreme. The fuel ranking methodology assigned ranks based on expected fire behavior for unique combinations of topography and vegetative fuels under a given severe weather condition (wind speed, humidity, temperature, and fuel moistures). The procedure made an initial assessment of rank based on an assigned fuel model and slope, then potentially increases ranks based on the amount of ladder and/or crown fuel present to arrive at a final fuel rank. Fire rotation class intervals were calculated from fifty years of fire history on land areas grouped into "strata" based on fire environment conditions. These strata are defined by climate, vegetation, and land ownership. The Fire rotation interval is the number of years it would take for past fires to burn an area equivalent to the area of a given stratum. Fire rotation interval for a given stratum is calculated by dividing the annual number of acres burned into the total area of the stratum. Finally, fire rotation values were grouped into classes. The larger fire rotation values correspond to less frequent burning. CDF calculated a numerical index of fire threat based on the combination of fuel rank and fire rotation. A 1-3 ranking of fuel rank was summed with the 1-3 ranking from rotation class to develop a threat index ranging from 2 to 6. This threat index was then grouped into four threat classes. Areas that do not support wildland fuels (e.g. open water, agriculture lands, etc.,) were omitted from the calculation, however areas of very large urban centers (i.e. concrete jungles) were left in but received a moderate threat value. This data was updated as requested by the Cities of San Marcos and Escondido, to more accurately reflect their fire risks and is reflected in the hazard modeling process and subsequent mapping. The identified vulnerable assets were superimposed on top of this information, resulting in three risk/exposure estimates: 1) the aggregated exposure and building count (both dollar exposure and population) at the census block level for residential and commercial occupancies, 2) the aggregated population at risk at the census block level, and 3) the critical infrastructure at risk (schools, hospitals, airports, bridges, and other facilities of critical nature). These results were then aggregated and presented by hazard risk level per jurisdiction. Wildfire can create a multi-hazard effect, where areas that are burned by wildfire suddenly have greater flooding risks because the vegetation that prevented erosion is now gone. Watershed from streams and rivers will change and floodplain mapping may need to be updated. Also, air quality issues during a large- scale fire would cause further economic losses than only the structural losses described below. Road closures and business closures due to large-scale fires would also increase the economic losses shown below. Areas burned during the 2007 firestorm that are susceptible to flooding or debris flow as a result of a significant rain event have been mapped and these maps have been provided to the appropriate jurisdictions. Tables 4.4-21 through 4.4-25 provide a breakdown of potential exposure to extreme, very high, high and moderate wildfire hazard by jurisdiction with Table 4.4-26 depicting the combined totals of exposure from wildfire, and Tables 4.4-26 through 4.4-30 provide a breakdown of potential infrastructure and critical facility exposure for the same series of fire hazards. Table 4.4-30 gives the combined total of all wildfire hazard levels. As demonstrated in the October 2007 fires, a major fire(s) in the region can 4-90 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment indirectly impact the entire community. Consequently, approximately 2,900,000 people may be at risk from the wildfire/structure fire hazard. In addition, special populations at risk that may be impacted by the wildfire/structure fire hazard in San Diego County include 180,377 low-income households and 313,198 elderly persons. 4-91 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-21 Potential Exposure from Extreme Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Corona do Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated -Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 0 17 0 0 0 5 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 13,286 2,251 13 15,658 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 0 5 0 0 0 1 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,254 628 5 5,920 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $0 $1,408 $0 $0 $0 $282 $7,601 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 SO $1,479,001 $176,782 $1,408 $1,666,480 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 187 23 0 211 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 soso $0 $4,482 $0 $0 $0 $838,078 $103,079 $0 $945,639 4-92 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-22 Potential Exposure from Very High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad ChulaVista Corona do Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated -Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 3,219 9,048 19 7 97 1,267 846 65 0 188 0 1,402 3,720 20,153 2,236 222 76 47,816 41,461 654 132,496 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 1,294 2,795 0 5 36 424 328 0 0 79 0 470 1,141 6,990 818 89 33 18,209 10,036 217 42,964 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $364,261 $786,793 $0 $1,408 $10,134 $119,356 $92,332 $0 $0 $22,239 $0 $132,305 $348,023 $1,967,685 $230,267 $25,054 $9,290 $5,125,834 $2,825,134 $61,086 $12,121,198 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 33 3 0 0 2 14 14 0 0 1 0 7 4 208 8 3 1 658 180 7 1,143 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $147,896 $13,445 $0 $0 $8,963 $62,744 $62,744 $0 $0 $4,482 $0 $31,372 $20,162 $932,194 $35,854 $13,445 $4,482 $2,948,959 $806,706 $31,372 $5,124,818 4-93 SECTIOHFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-23 Potential Exposure from High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Ch ul a Vista Corona do Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated -Rural Unincorporated - Uitoan Core Vista Total Exposed Population 9,255 3,840 0 16 118 1,159 1,660 37 404 0 9 2,795 4,826 30,997 11,312 2,658 L_ 5° 8,518 8,068 792 86,514 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 4,298 1,224 0 9 42 419 654 7 177 0 2 849 1,696 10,710 3,578 938 22 3,197 2,504 277 30,603 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $1,209,887 $344,556 $0 $2,534 $11,823 $117,949 $184,101 $1,971 $49,826 $0 $563 $238,994 $703 $3,014,865 $1,007,207 $264,047 $6,193 $899,956 $704,876 $77,976 $8,138,024 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 72 18 0 1 3 18 17 0 1 0 5 21 32 280 30 18 1 108 76 12 713 Potential Exposure (xSIOOO) $322,682 $80,671 $0 $4,482 $13,445 $80,671 $76,189 $0 $4,482 $0 $22,409 $94,116 $116,278 $1,254,876 $134,451 $80,671 $4,482 $484,024 $340,609 $53,780 $3,168,316 4-94 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-24 Potential Exposure from Moderate Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Corona do Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Diego (City) San Marcus Santee Solana Beach Unincorporated -Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 76,454 169,128 18,868 3,332 97,629 55,064 134,126 26,346 56,195 25,023 55,054 161,361 36,900 1,251,231 60,659 50,473 11,413 71,028 255,909 90,913 2,707,106 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 31,464 57,512 8,097 1,836 35,464 21,388 43,671 9,139 25,030 6,871 15,749 58,273 11,904 473,008 20,218 17,705 5,585 24,474 86,104 28,908 982,400 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $8,857,116 $16,189,628 $2,279,306 $516,834 $9,983,116 $6,020,722 $12,293,387 $2,572,629 $7,045,945 $1,706,745 $4,433,344 $16,403,850 $3,044,913 $133,151,752 $5,691,367 $4,983,958 $1,572,178 $6,889,431 $24,238,276 $8,137,602 $276,012,096 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 1,229 1,963 428 178 1,348 1,103 1,745 310 946 47 881 1,824 106 17,500 735 535 303 792 2,970 1,106 36,049 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $5,508,009 $8,797,577 $1,918,168 $797,743 $6,041 ,332 $4,943,315 $7,820,567 $1,389,327 $4,239,688 $208,246 $3,948,378 $8,174,621 $554,400 $78,429,750 $3,294,050 $2,397,710 $1,357,955 $3,549,506 $13,310,649 $4,956,760 $161,637,749 4-95 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-25 Potential Exposure from Wildfire (Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme Combined) Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Imperial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National City Oceanside Poway San Dieao (City) San Marcos Santee Sdana Beach Unincorporated - Rural Unincorporated - Urban Core Vista Total Exposed Population 88,928 182,033 18,887 3,355 97,844 57,495 136,697 26,448 56,599 25,023 55,063 165,558 47,823 1,302,402 74,207 53,353 11,539 140,648 307,689 92,372 2,943,963 Residential Buildings at Risk Building Count 37,056 61,536 8,097 1,850 35,542 22,232 44,680 9,146 25,207 6,871 15,751 59,592 15,289 490,708 24,614 18,732 5,640 51,134 99,272 29,407 1,062,356 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $10,431,264 $17,322,384 $2,279,306 $520,775 $10,005,073 $6,258,308 $12,577,420 $2,574,599 $7,095,771 $1,706,745 $4,433,907 $16,775,148 $4,303,854 $138,134,302 $6,928,841 $5,273,058 $1,587,660 $14,394,221 $27,945,068 $8,278,071 $298,825,773 Commercial Buildings at Risk Building Count 1,334 1,984 428 179 1,353 1,135 1,776 310 947 47 886 1,852 682 17,989 773 556 305 1,745 3,249 1,125 38,655 Potential Exposure (x$1000) $5,978,588 $8,891 ,693 $1,918,168 $802,224 $6,063,740 $5,086,730 $7,959,499 $1,389,327 $4,244,170 $208,246 $3,970,786 $8,300,108 $3,056,519 $80,621,301 $3,464,354 $2,491,825 $1,366,919 $7,820,567 $14,561,043 $5,041,913 $173,237,720 4-96 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-26 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Extreme Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction J u ris die ti o n C a rl s b a d C h ula Vista C o ro n a d o Del M ar E 1 Cajon E n c i n it a s E scon did o Im p eria 1 Be ach La Mesa Lemon G rove N ation al City 0 cea nsid e P ow a y S an D leg o (C ity ) S an M arco s S an tee S ola na Beach U n in c o rp o ra te d R u ra 1 U n in co rp o ra te d U rba n C ore V ista To la 1 N u m b er To ta 1 E xp os u re Data AIR Number j 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) i 0 Number : 0 Exposure(x$1000) : 0 Number ! 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Num ber j 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number ! 0 Exposure(x$1000) ! 0 Number i 0 Exposure(x$1000) ' 0 Num ber ! 0 Expos u re (x$ 1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) : 0 Number i 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) i 0 Number : 0 Expos u re (x$ 1000) 0 Number ! 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 2 E xpos ure (x$1 000) ! 400,000 Number Exposure(x$1000) I 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) ! 0 2 XS1000) ! 400,000 BRDG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 4,21 5 0 0 0 0 22 4,21 5 BUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 ,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 COM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 8,000 0 0 0 0 1 4 28,000 ELE C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EM ER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 ,000 0 0 0 0 5 10,000 GO VT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HO SP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IN FR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 415 1 4 0 0 1 20 426 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POT W W TR 0 | 0 0 I 0 0 | 0 0 \ 0 0 0 0 ! 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 ! 0 0 i 0 0 0 0 i 0 0 | 0 0 I 0 0 i 0 0 i 0 0 | 0 o ; o 0 i 0 o ! o o i o 0 i 0 0 0 o ! o 0 ! 0 0 : 0 0 , 0 0 I 0 0 | 0o ! o 0 ! 0 0 ! 0 0 i 0 o ; o 0 | 0 o ! o 0 • 0 0 j 0 0 i 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 0 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SCH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2,000 0 0 0 0 2 2,000 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 446,630 1 4 0 0 166 446,641 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-97 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-27 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Very High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction J u ris d ic ti o n C a rl s b a d C h ula Vista C o ro n a d o D el M ar E 1 C ajo n E n c i n it a s E scon did o !m perial Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove N a tion al City 0 ceanside P ow a y S an D iego (C ity ) S an M arco s S an te e S ola na Be a ch U n in co rpo ra te d - R u ra 1 U n in co rpo ra te d - Urban Core V ista TotalNumber Data i AIR Number 0 E xposure (xS1 000) ! 0 Number I 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure (x51 000) 0 Number i 0 E x pos u re (x$ 1 000 ) • 0 Number 0 E x pos ure (x$ 1 00 0) I 0 Number ! 0 Exposure (xS1 000) 0 Number ! 0 Exposure(x$1000) ; 0 Number i 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) 0 Number 0 Exposure (x$ 1 000) j 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000) • 0 Number i 0 Exposure(x$1000) j 0 Number 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) ! 0 Num ber 0 Exposure(xSIOOO) ! 0 Number 0 Exposure(x$1000} ; 0 Num ber 0 Exposure(x$1000) 0 Number 0 Exposure(xSlOOO) 0 Number i 0 Exposure (x$1 000)_ 0 Number Exposure (x$1 000) ; 2,600,00 0 Number j ,. Exposure |x$ 1 000) ! 0 Num ber 0 Exposure (x$1 000) 0 13 Tola 1 E xpos ure (x$ 1000) 2.600,000 BRDG 1 1 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 92 1 1 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 !,533 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 05 20,11 8 9 1,724 0 0 1 25 23,950 BUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 2 4,00 0 COM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 6 8 ,000 0 0 0 0 36 72,000 ELEC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E ME R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 1 00 ,000 6 12 ,000 0 0 5 6 1 12 ,000 GO VT 1 2 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 3 6,0 00 HO SP 1 1 00 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 500,000 2 200,000 0 0 s 800,000 IN FR 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 8 58 1 34 1 1 1 1 1 2 665 2,173 75 82 1 0 8 15 2.41 7 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SC H 2 2,000 1 1 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 ,000 3 3 ,0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23,000 6 6,000 1 1 ,000 37 37,000 Total 7 1 04 ,1 95 4 1,00 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 93 3 1 96 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 1,008 72 1 0,667 1 1 1 1 1 2 897 3,31 7,29 1 99 221 ,806 2 1,000 1,095 3,657,367 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-98 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-28 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from High Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction J u ris d ic tio n C arlsbad C hula Vista C o ro n a d o D el M ar E 1 C ajo n E n c i n it a s E scon dido Im p eria 1 Be ach La Mesa Lemon Grove N a tion al City 0 cea nsid e P ow a y S an D iego (C ity ) S an M arcos S an te e S ola na Be a ch U n in co rp o ra te d R u ra 1 U n in c o rp o ra le d U rba n C ore V 1st a Data N umber Exposure (xJIOOO) N umber Exposure {x 5 1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIGOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (x$1000) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) N umber Exposure (xSIOOO) Tola 1 N u m b er Tota 1 E xpo s ure (xS 10 00) AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 800 ,000 0 0 0 0 4 800,000 BRDG 0 0 1 192 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 575 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 192 1 192 2 383 13 2,49 1 1 192 0 0 0 0 17 3,257 6 1 ,150 0 0 45 8,622 BUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6,000 2 4,000 1 2 ,000 0 0 2 4 ,000 0 0 0 0 9 18,000 EL EC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E ME R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 3 6,000 1 2,000 1 2,000 6 1 2,000 GOVT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 HOSP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 2 200,000 INFR 1 9 27 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 7 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 6 7 22 51 92 2 4 2 5 0 0 1 36 446 1 6 21 2 1 255 648 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 ,000 W WTR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 ,000 0 0 1 1 00,000 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SCH 3 3,000 1 1 ,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 ,000 8 8.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2,000 0 0 1 1 ,000 16 16,000 Total 22 3,027 4 1 ,1 95 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 100,576 8 2,005 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 192 10 2,208 10 1 ,405 75 1 6,582 6 6,1 96 3 2,005 0 0 165 81 7,703 26 303,171 4 3,001 341 1 ,259,270 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-99 SECTIONFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-29 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from Moderate Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Carlsbad Chula Vista C o ro n ad o Del Mar El Cajon Encinitas Escondido Im peria 1 Beach La Mesa Lemon Grove National Cily 0 ceanside Row ay San Diego (City) S an M arco s San tee Solana Beach Unincorporated Rural U n in co rpo ra te d Urban Core Vista Data Num her Exposure (x$1 000) Mum ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Num ber Exposure (xS1 000) Num ber Exposure (x$1 000) Total Number Total Exposure (x$1000) AIR 1 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 200.000 0 0 4 800,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 2,600,000 0 0 0 0 20 4,000,000 BRDG 19 3,640 39 7,472 1 192 5 958 37 7,089 11 2,108 67 12,837 1 192 36 6,898 8 1,533 46 8,814 37 7,089 40 7,664 445 85.262 11 2,108 14 2,682 5 958 72 13.795 96 18,394 12 2,299 1,002 191,983 BUS 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 12 24,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 42,000 COM 2 4,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 1 2,000 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 4 8,000 0 0 22 44,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 5 10,000 1 2,000 0 0 44 88,000 ELEC 1 10,000 1 10,000 0 0 0 0 1 10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20,000 0 0 0 0 8 80,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 30,000 0 0 0 0 16 160,000 EMER 7 14,000 11 22,000 3 6,000 1 2,000 8 16,000 6 12,000 6 12,000 2 4,000 4 8,000 2 4.000 4 8,000 10 20,000 3 6,000 85 170,000 7 14,000 3 6,000 1 2,000 35 70,000 30 60,000 8 16,000 236 472,000 GOVT 4 8,000 8 16,000 4 8,000 2 4,000 7 14,000 3 6,000 8 16,000 2 4,000 4 8,000 3 6,000 4 8,000 9 18,000 1 2,000 95 190,000 3 6,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 2 4,000 7 14,000 4 8,000 173 346,000 HOSP 1 100,000 7 700,000 1 100,000 0 0 6 600,000 3 300,000 8 800,000 2 200,000 2 200,000 0 0 7 700,000 11 1,100,000 1 100,000 49 4,900,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 5 500,000 6 600,000 3 300,000 114 11,400,000 INFR 89 153 85 165 12 12 10 7 61 153 72 127 68 187 3 2 52 112 23 58 37 87 103 206 22 60 750 1,686 54 136 27 60 27 44 383 1,289 194 415 48 95 2,118 5,056 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 60,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 60,000 POT 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 9 900,000 WWTR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 5 500,000 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 14,000 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 7 14,000 0 0 5 10,000 2 4,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 9 18,000 36 72,000 SCH 18 18,000 59 59,000 9 9,000 2 2,000 47 47,000 23 23,000 43 43,000 8 8,000 25 25,000 10 10,000 20 20,000 37 37,000 22 22,000 339 339,000 20 20.000 15 15,000 9 9,000 38 38,000 100 100,000 38 38.000 882 882,000 Total 143 457,793 215 922,638 31 125,204 20 8,965 171 900,242 126 359,235 204 990,024 18 216,194 124 250,010 46 21,591 125 872,901 222 1,508,295 91 239,724 1,821 7,103,948 99 246,244 64 131,742 44 16,002 557 3,367,085 438 998,808 122 382,394 4,679 19,119,039 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-100 SECTIOMFOUR Risk Assessment Table 4.4-30 Potential Exposure to Critical Facilities and Infrastructures from (Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme Combined) Wildfire Hazard by Jurisdiction Ju rtsdictiort Carlsbad Chu la Vista Coronado Del Mar El Cajon E ncin itas E s co n d id o Imperia 1 B each La Mesa Lemon Grove National Cily 0 ceanside Poway S an Diego (C»y) San Marcos Santee Solana Beach U nincorp orated Rural U nincorp orated Urban Core Vista Data Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1 000} Number Exposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000{ Number Exposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number E xposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number E xposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (xSIOOO) Number Exposure (x$1 000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Number Exposure (x$1000) Total Number Total Expo su re (xSIOOO) AIR 1 200.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 200,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 200,000 0 0 4 800,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 6,000,000 0 0 0 0 37 7,400,000 BRD6 20 3,832 40 7,664 1 192 5 958 37 7,089 15 2.874 68 13,029 1 192 36 6,898 8 1,533 47 9,005 38 7,28 1 42 8.047 466 89,286 12 2,299 14 2,682 5 958 194 37,170 21,268 12 2,299 1,172 224,555 BUS 0 0 2 4.000 0 0 0 0 1 2.000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2,000 2 4.000 1 2,000 12 24,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 0 0 0 0 23 46,000 COM 2 4,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 1 2,000 2 4,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 1 2,000 4 8,000 0 0 27 54,000 2 4,000 2 4,000 0 0 41 82,000 1 2,000 0 0 89 178,000 ELEC 1 1 0,000 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 1 1 0,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20,000 0 0 0 0 8 80,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 30,000 0 0 0 0 16 1 60,000 EMER 7 14,000 11 22,000 3 6,000 1 2,000 8 1 6,000 6 1 2,000 6 1 2,000 2 4,000 4 8,000 2 4,000 4 8,000 10 20,000 3 6,000 85 t 70,000 S 1 6,000 3 6,000 1 2,000 88 1 76,000 37 74,000 9 1 8,000 298 596,000 GOVT 5 10,000 8 16,000 4 8,000 2 4,000 7 14,000 3 6.000 8 16,000 2 4,000 4 8,000 3 6,000 4 8,000 10 20,000 1 2,000 96 192,000 3 6,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 3 6,000 8 16,000 4 8.000 178 356,000 HOSP 2 200.000 7 700 ,000 1 100,000 0 0 6 600 ,000 3 300 .000 8 800 ,000 2 200,000 2 200,000 0 0 7 700.000 1 1 1,100,000 1 100 ,000 49 4.900,000 2 200,000 0 0 0 0 1 0 1,000,000 1 0 1,000,000 3 300 ,000 124 12,400,000 INFR 110 183 95 185 12 13 10 7 63 159 76 130 76 197 4 2 53 113 23 58 37 87 112 226 31 89 859 1,912 56 142 30 65 28 46 1,184 3,908 285 518 50 96 3,192 8,136 PORT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 60,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 60,000 POT 1 100,000 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100.000 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100.000 1 100,000 0 0 2 200,000 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 1 0 1,000 ,000 WWTR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100,000 3 300,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 300,000 2 200,000 0 0 10 1,000,000 RAIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12,000 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4,000 7 14,000 0 0 5 10,000 2 4,000 0 0 1 2,000 0 0 2 4,000 9 18.000 35 70,000 SCH 23 23,000 61 61,000 9 9,000 2 2.000 47 47,000 25 25,000 43 43,000 8 8,000 25 25,000 10 10,000 20 20,000 37 37,000 24 24,000 350 350,000 20 20,000 15 15,000 9 9.000 63 63,000 106 1 06,000 40 40,000 937 937,000 Total 172 565,01 5 228 924,849 31 125,204 20 8,965 173 900,248 136 460,004 214 1,092,226 19 216,194 125 250,010 46 21,591 126 873,093 233 1,510,506 103 242,137 1,966 7,231,198 105 252,441 68 133,748 45 16,004 1,618 7,702,078 561 1,523,785 127 386,395 6,114 24,435,691 Refer to Table 4.4-1 for abbreviation definition 4-101 SECTIONFOUR 4.4.2.8 Manmade Hazards Vulnerability assessment information for manmade hazards is considered sensitive homeland security information and is provided in a separate confidential document (Attachment A). 4.5 MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL ASSESSMENT It should be noted that individual risk assessment maps were completed for each of the 18 participating incorporated cities as well as the unincorporated County. Hazard profile maps were created at a local (1:2,000) scale, complete with land use information, critical facility information, infrastructure and hazard areas for each of the 19 jurisdictions. Jurisdictional HMWG leads were presented copies of these maps to provide to their Local Mitigation Planning teams. The local teams utilized these maps to help identify their Jurisdictional Goals, Objectives, and Mitigation Measures. Several of the local goals, objectives, and action items identified in the proceeding section (Section 5) relate directly to these risk assessment maps. Due to concern of sensitivity of information depicted on these localized maps, only the County-scale maps are included in the Plan. 4.5.1 Analysis of Land Use San Diego County covers 4,264 square miles and is located in the southernmost corner of the state, bordering Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. There are 18 jurisdictions in the County with a total of over 888 thousand households in the region and a total population of 2,813,833 (2000 Census Bureau data). Existing land use data (Figure 4.5.1) was utilized in the hazard profiling process. Forecast land use information for 2030 from the Regional Economic Development Information system (REDI) was evaluated in analyzing future development trends. Existing land use consists of mainly residential, commercial and industrial in the western (urban core) portion of the county. The eastern area (unincorporated rural) is spotted with residential surrounded by park and 'not in use' areas. The forecast land use describes residential land use becoming the most predominant land use in the urban core of the county and expanding largely into the eastern portion of the county. In the eastern portion of the county, Native American Reservations and parks will make up the rest of the land use designations. 4-102 EXISTING LANDUSE COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING Profiling Hazards LEGEND: 2007 Landuse AGRICULTURE COMMERCIAL AND OFFICE EDUCATION/INSTITUTIONS M INDUSTRIAL BB MILITARY BB PARKS AND RECREATION RESIDENTIAL TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNI- jjj§ CATION AND UTILITIES UNDEVELOPED •I W/47ER Base Layers: | | Incorporated City Boundary Streams Freeways Major Roads I Lakes OVERVIEW MAP: SOURCES SANGIS (Roads. Incorporated City Boundaries. Rivers, Lakes. 2007 Landuse] THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE Copyright SanGIS All Rights Reserved This product may contain information from SANDAG Regional information System which cannot be reproduced without the written permission of SANDAG. This product may contain informationwhich has been reproduced with permission granted by Thomas Brothers Maps KAFire Servicesttasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation Plan^Existing Land use \COSD_Exi si ing Land use mxd 16 • Miles SECTIONFOUR Within the county, there are 18 incorporated cities and the County (as well as a participating Fire Protection District), all of which contributed to the risk assessment analyses for the San Diego County Hazard Mitigation Plan. Wildfire and flood were identified as the most significant risks to the San Diego region. However, all hazards are addressed in the Mitigation Plan. Each jurisdiction has unique hazard situations that require additional or unique mitigation measures. The loss estimates are summarized above in tables that show potential total exposure and/or losses for each jurisdiction. The Mitigation Strategy (Section 5) approaches each jurisdiction separately. 4.5.2 Analysis of Development Trends The San Diego Association of Governments (SanDAG) is a regional planning body whose membership includes all 18 incorporated cites and the County of San Diego. SanDAG plays a key role in regional coordination efforts. In 2004 the SanDAG Board of Directors adopted a Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) that provides a strategic framework for the San Diego Region. It encourages cities and the county to increase residential and employment concentrations in areas with the best existing and future transit connections, and to preserve important open spaces "Smart Growth"). City general plans are being aligned with the RCP as they are revised. Many of the jurisdictions in San Diego County are close to being "built-out" under their general plans. A few representative examples will illustrate the trends throughout the region: • The City of San Diego has less than four percent (4%) of its land available for development. For the City of San Diego this means that the focus is shifting form how to develop new lands to how to reinvest in existing communities (City of San Diego General Plan, March 2008). The City's General Plan takes hazard mitigation into consideration in the Public Facilities, Services and Safety Element by discussing disaster preparedness (preparation for natural and man-made disasters as well as preparations for restoration of municipal services) and seismic safety. • The City of Poway's Plan calls for the preservation of open space and the maintenance of the City's rural character. (Poway Comprehensive Plan: General Plan). Accordingly, future development "in Poway should be concentrated in parts of the City other than the rural hillside areas and existing open space should be protected." This is intended to limit growth to the "enhancement of existing developed and developing areas." • The City of National City has only 0.8% (113 acres) of land vacant and available for development. It has adopted the SanDAG Smart Growth concept. Additional opportunities for future development may include a change to an existing use within a built-up area, rebuilding sites with more intense uses or building on under-utilized sites. (City of National City General Plan, Chapter 2 Land Use). • The City of Chula Vista also subscribes to the SanDAG Smart Growth concept. Chula Vista was one of the fastest growing cities in the State during the 1990s and the early initial years of the 21st century. This growth occurred mostly in the eastern portion of the 4-105 SECTIONFOUR City on large, vacant tracts of land. Western Chula Vista is for the most part already developed. Chula Vista's emphasis is shifting from the development of vacant lands in the eastern portion of the City to revitalizing the already developed areas. "Redevelopment will play a prominent role in the City's evolution" (City of Chula Vista General Plan, Chapter Five, Land Use Element). • The City of Encinitas still contains a number of underdeveloped or undeveloped areas that can accommodate additional homes or businesses. It is the intent of the City to achieve a balance among the various land uses but also between urban development and the natural environment. (City of Encinitas General Plan March 2007). Among the things the City seeks to accomplish with this plan the "reduction of loss of life, injury, and property damage that might result form flooding, seismic hazards and other natural and man-made hazards that need to be considered in future land-use planning and decision making." • The County of San Diego will manage growth in the unincorporated areas through the use of zoning regulations, building codes and the permit process (San Diego County General Plan). Hazard mitigation measures to minimize landslides, flooding, and other natural and man-made hazards are found in the plan. The 2005 Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan has been included into the General Plan by reference. The result of this is that much of the new development in the near term will occur in the unincorporated portion of San Diego County. In the near future development trends will shift towards the redevelopment of urban cores. Hazards mapped in these areas include wildfire, flood, earthquake, and dam failure. The two most prevalent hazards related to development trends appear to be the increasing density in downtown San Diego near the Rose Canyon Fault Zone (earthquake and liquefaction hazard) and the expansion of the urban/wildland interface by new development throughout the county, but especially in east and south county (wildfire hazard). It should also be noted that high-rise residential and commercial development has increased significantly in the downtown San Diego and Golden Triangle areas and these developments present a potential new type of structural fire hazard risk. The population is estimated to increase to approximately 3,984,753 in 2030 (SANDAG, 2008) (Figure 4.5.2). The forecast land use describes residential land use becoming the most predominant land use in the urban core of the county and expanding largely into the eastern portion of the county. The original plan predicted that near term development (that development that would occur over the course of the four year life of the plan) would be concentrated mostly in the unincorporated urban core and the southeastern portion of San Diego County in and around the City of Chula Vista. For the first few years this prediction appeared to be accurate. Beginning in 2008, the economic downturn resulted in a significant slow-down within the region in terms of growth and caused a very large downturn in median home prices. It is estimated that the downturn resulted in a $4 billion loss to San Diego County as a result of the change it caused in consumer spending habits. During this time the median price of a home in San Diego County dropped from approximately $800,000 to approximately $500,000 (a 37.5% decrease). 4-106 SECTIONFOUR 2008 saw the unemployment rate rise to 7.6% in San Diego with the loss of 56,500 jobs by January of 2009. This was the worst job loss in San Diego since 1974. In 2008 there were fewer than 3000 residential building permits issued. The normal average is 14,000. By April of 2009 the total number of unemployed in San Diego had reached 135,000, for and unemployment rate of 8.6%. (National Association of Counties "A Snapshot of Large, Urban Counties" April, 2009) A consequence of this is that many of the mitigation actions originally intended to be completed had to be postponed or dropped from consideration due to a lack of available funding. 4-107 SICTIOHFOUR This page intentionally left blank 4-108 UNINCORPORATED S.D.COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING Profiling Hazards LEGEND: Change in Population between 2010 and 2020 0-1,000 1,001 -3,000 !• 3,001 -8,000 •• 8,001 -17,043 Base Layers: | | Incorporated City Boundary Streams /\/ Freeways Major Roads Lakes OVERVIEW MAP: 16 • Mile SOURCES SANGIS (Roads, Incorporated Crty Boundaries, Rivers Lakes Dams)Sandag (Population Growth) THIS MAP IS PROVIDED WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSECopyright SanGIS All Rights Reserved This product may contain information from SANDAG Regional information System which cannot be reproduced without !hewritten permission of SANDAG This product may contain information granted by Thomas Brothers Maps K \Fire Services\tasks\OES Hazmit Mitigation Manipulation Growtn\COSD_PopulattonGrowth mxd SICTIONFOUR Data Limitations It should be noted that the analysis presented here is based upon "best available data". See Appendix B for a complete listing of sources and their unique data limitations (if any). Data used in updates to this plan should be reassessed upon each review period to incorporate new or more accurate data if/when possible. 4-111 SICTIONFOUR This page intentionally left blank 4-112