HomeMy WebLinkAbout2013-09-24; City Council; 21384; SANDAG Regional Growth Forecast PresentationCITY OF CARLSBAD - AGENDA BILL 13
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MTG.
DEPT.
21,384
9-24-13
CED
SANDAG SERIES 13 REGIONAL GROWTH
FORECAST PRESENTATION
DEPT. DIRECTOR
CITY ATTORNEY
CiTY MANAGER
RECOMMENDED ACTION;
To receive a presentation from representatives ofthe San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG)
regarding the Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast.
ITEM EXPLANATION;
Representatives from SANDAG will give a presentation on the Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast.
During the past 12 months, SANDAG staff and representatives and elected officials from each ofthe San
Diego region's nineteen jurisdictions have worked together to develop a long-range growth forecast for
the San Diego region. The Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast will serve as the foundation for San Diego
Forward: The Regional Plan as well as for other planning documents across the region.
FISCAL IMPACT;
None.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT;
Pursuant to Section 15061 ofthe CEQA Guidelines, the activity is covered by the General Rule that CEQA
applies only to projects which have the potential for causing a significant effect on the environment.
Where it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a
significant effect on the environment, the activity is not subject to CEQA.
DEPARTMENT CONTACT: Don Neu 760-602-4601 don.neu@carlsbadca.gov
FOR CITY CLERKS USE ONLY.
COUNCIL ACTION: APPROVED • CONTINUED TO DATE SPECIFIC •
DENIED • CONTINUED TO DATE UNKNOWN •
CONTINUED • RETURNED TO STAFF •
WITHDRAWN • OTHER-SEE MINUTES •
AMENDED • Council received the presentation.
Series 13
Regional Growth Forecast
Carlsbad City Council
September 24th , 2013
1
Preliminary Subregional Forecast
2 Dedicating more
lands to
preservation…
An aging, diversifying
population…
Growing more
sustainably…
3
Forty Years in Carlsbad
Through annexations, Carlsbad has
grown from 7.5 sq. mi. to 40 sq. mi.
40 years ago: There was no
Legoland, Coaster, or Carlsbad
Village Station
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population 1970-present Housing 1970-present
Subregional Forecast
Detailed Demographic Forecast
Transportation Model Regionwide
Forecast
•Historical data
•Current
demographics
•National forecast
•Demographic
trends
•Expert review
•Current Estimates: Jobs, Housing, Population
•Local Plans/Policies
•Market Conditions
•Local Review
Forecast process
and new models
4
Population, Jobs, and Housing
5
4,068,759
1,911,404
1,491,804
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Jobs
Housing
2010 - 2050
973,000 more people
489,000 more jobs
333,000 more housing units
6
Series 13 Subregional Forecast:
Population Trends
200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
White, 30%
White, 48%
Hispanic, 46%
Hispanic, 32%
Asian, 16%
Asian,
11%
4%
5%
4%
3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2050
2010
2010 2050 2010 2050
Female Male Black 2 or More San Diego
Region
Population
San Diego
Region Population
by Age and Gender
Series 13 Subregional Forecast:
Land Use Inputs
•Updated General Plans
•Chula Vista (SP)
•Escondido
•Imperial Beach
•National City
•San Diego
•San Marcos (SP)
•Vista
•County
•Site Specific Projects
•Sufficient Housing Lands
7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
12/1/12 1/1/13 2/1/13 3/1/13
Online Comments = 2,322
Land Use Inputs
•Existing Plans and Policies
•Reviewed ~350k Parcels
•~65K Parcel Updates
•Updated Constraints
8
9
Series 13 Subregional Forecast
Housing Growth
•87% of growth in 1/2 mile to transit
60%
36%
4%
2%
51%
46% Single
Family 18%
Multi
Family
82%
Housing Growth
(n = 333,728)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2050
2035
2020
2010
10
Series 13 Subregional Forecast:
Jobs Trends
San Diego 50%
Unincorporated 10%
Chula Vista 10%
San Marcos 6% Carlsbad 4% Vista 3% National City 3%
Oceanside 3% El Cajon 2%
La Mesa 2%
Escondido 2%
Poway 1% Santee 1%
Encinitas 1%
Lemon Grove
Solana Beach
Imperial Beach
Coronado
Del Mar
2010-2050 Jobs Growth,
Region Total by Jurisdiction
11
Series 13 Subregional Forecast
Job Growth
•79% of growth in 1/2 mile to transit
Total Jobs, by Industry
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
ProfessionalBusiness ServicesGovernmentLeisure /HospitalityEducation /HealthMilitaryConstruction2050 2010
12
Population Distribution by Race / Ethnicity
Series 13 Subregional Forecast:
City of Carlsbad
White, 59%
White, 74%
Hispanic, 23%
Hispanic, 14%
Asian, 12%
Asian, 7%
5%
3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2050
2012
Single
Family
49%
Multi
Family
51%
Housing Growth
(n = 5, 790 ) Other 2 or More Black
4,068,759
1,911,404
1,491,804
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Jobs
Housing
Population, Jobs, and Housing
13
2010 - 2050
973,000 more people
489,000 more jobs
333,000 more housing units