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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2013-09-24; City Council; 21384; SANDAG Regional Growth Forecast PresentationCITY OF CARLSBAD - AGENDA BILL 13 AB# MTG. DEPT. 21,384 9-24-13 CED SANDAG SERIES 13 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST PRESENTATION DEPT. DIRECTOR CITY ATTORNEY CiTY MANAGER RECOMMENDED ACTION; To receive a presentation from representatives ofthe San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) regarding the Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast. ITEM EXPLANATION; Representatives from SANDAG will give a presentation on the Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast. During the past 12 months, SANDAG staff and representatives and elected officials from each ofthe San Diego region's nineteen jurisdictions have worked together to develop a long-range growth forecast for the San Diego region. The Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast will serve as the foundation for San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan as well as for other planning documents across the region. FISCAL IMPACT; None. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; Pursuant to Section 15061 ofthe CEQA Guidelines, the activity is covered by the General Rule that CEQA applies only to projects which have the potential for causing a significant effect on the environment. Where it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a significant effect on the environment, the activity is not subject to CEQA. DEPARTMENT CONTACT: Don Neu 760-602-4601 don.neu@carlsbadca.gov FOR CITY CLERKS USE ONLY. COUNCIL ACTION: APPROVED • CONTINUED TO DATE SPECIFIC • DENIED • CONTINUED TO DATE UNKNOWN • CONTINUED • RETURNED TO STAFF • WITHDRAWN • OTHER-SEE MINUTES • AMENDED • Council received the presentation. Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast Carlsbad City Council September 24th , 2013 1 Preliminary Subregional Forecast 2 Dedicating more lands to preservation… An aging, diversifying population… Growing more sustainably… 3 Forty Years in Carlsbad Through annexations, Carlsbad has grown from 7.5 sq. mi. to 40 sq. mi. 40 years ago: There was no Legoland, Coaster, or Carlsbad Village Station 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population 1970-present Housing 1970-present Subregional Forecast Detailed Demographic Forecast Transportation Model Regionwide Forecast •Historical data •Current demographics •National forecast •Demographic trends •Expert review •Current Estimates: Jobs, Housing, Population •Local Plans/Policies •Market Conditions •Local Review                  Forecast process and new models 4 Population, Jobs, and Housing 5 4,068,759 1,911,404 1,491,804 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population Jobs Housing 2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 489,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units 6 Series 13 Subregional Forecast: Population Trends 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+ White, 30% White, 48% Hispanic, 46% Hispanic, 32% Asian, 16% Asian, 11% 4% 5% 4% 3% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% 2050 2010 2010 2050 2010 2050 Female Male Black 2 or More San Diego Region Population San Diego Region Population by Age and Gender Series 13 Subregional Forecast: Land Use Inputs •Updated General Plans •Chula Vista (SP) •Escondido •Imperial Beach •National City •San Diego •San Marcos (SP) •Vista •County •Site Specific Projects •Sufficient Housing Lands 7 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 12/1/12 1/1/13 2/1/13 3/1/13 Online Comments = 2,322 Land Use Inputs •Existing Plans and Policies •Reviewed ~350k Parcels •~65K Parcel Updates •Updated Constraints 8 9 Series 13 Subregional Forecast Housing Growth •87% of growth in 1/2 mile to transit 60% 36% 4% 2% 51% 46% Single Family 18% Multi Family 82% Housing Growth (n = 333,728) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 2050 2035 2020 2010 10 Series 13 Subregional Forecast: Jobs Trends San Diego 50% Unincorporated 10% Chula Vista 10% San Marcos 6% Carlsbad 4% Vista 3% National City 3% Oceanside 3% El Cajon 2% La Mesa 2% Escondido 2% Poway 1% Santee 1% Encinitas 1% Lemon Grove Solana Beach Imperial Beach Coronado Del Mar 2010-2050 Jobs Growth, Region Total by Jurisdiction 11 Series 13 Subregional Forecast Job Growth •79% of growth in 1/2 mile to transit Total Jobs, by Industry 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 ProfessionalBusiness ServicesGovernmentLeisure /HospitalityEducation /HealthMilitaryConstruction2050 2010 12 Population Distribution by Race / Ethnicity Series 13 Subregional Forecast: City of Carlsbad White, 59% White, 74% Hispanic, 23% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 12% Asian, 7% 5% 3% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% 2050 2012 Single Family 49% Multi Family 51% Housing Growth (n = 5, 790 ) Other 2 or More Black 4,068,759 1,911,404 1,491,804 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population Jobs Housing Population, Jobs, and Housing 13 2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 489,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units