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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2015-01-20; City Council; 21825; Present Update of City's Ten Year Forecast1 1 City of Carlsbad Ten Year Financial Forecast January 20, 2015 Sources •UCLA Anderson Forecast •Beacon Economics •CalPERS •BLS •California DOF •Tourism Economics •S&P Case-Shiller Index •Zillow •Movoto •FHFA •DataQuick •USD •MuniServices 2 Overview National Economy •Monetary Policy •Unemployment •Housing •Fiscal Policy 3 National Economy -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Overview State Economy •Employment •Housing •Budget 5 California Employment - 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014PercentCALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HISTORY (JULY 2006 TO OCTOBER 2014) California Home Prices 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FHFA Building Permit Data 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 8 (thousands) Overview Regional Economic Trends •Home Prices •USD Economic Indicators 9 Ten Year Forecast Fiscal Year 2015-16 Ten Year Forecast Fiscal Year 2014-15 (000 omitted)Budget Projected Variance Property Tax $53,280 $54,315 $1,035 Sales Tax 31,674 32,798 1,124 TOT 16,450 17,997 1,547 Franchise 4,990 4,992 2 Business License 3,824 4,345 521 All other 18,746 19,089 343 Total $128,964 $133,536 $4,572 Assumptions •New Facilities •Infrastructure Replacement Fund •CalPERS Rate Effects •Negotiated Comp and Benefits •Known Economic Development •Contributions –Golf Course, LLD 13 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15e AV Com/Indust AV Residential Property Taxes Assessed Values and Property Taxes FY Billions Millions November 2014 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Carlsbad Encinitas Oceanside San Diego Vista 12.45% -0.63% 3.41% 5.0% 11.56% * DataQuick Sales Tax History by Geo Area $ $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Carlsbad Village Auto Mall Plaza Camino Real Carlsbad Premium Outlets The Forum $27.0M $23.1M $23.0M $25.7M $28.1M $28.4M $30.5M 17 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e La Costa/Park Hyatt/Legoland/Sheraton All Others $17.5 $14.3 $18.0 Transient Occupancy Taxes $12.7 $11.5 $12.9 $14.7 $11.6 Pension Forecast -Safety 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% Old Forecast New Forecast Pension Forecast -General 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% Old Forecast New Forecast 10 Year Forecast - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 (in thousands)Revenues Over (Under) Expenditures Revenues Expenditures 5.1 8.69.09.18.88.57.47.1 5.96.1 21 21