HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020-08-12; Housing Element Advisory Committee; ; CONFIRMATION OF SITE SELECTION METHODOLOGIES PROPOSED TO MEET THE CITY'S HOUSING OBLIGATIONS PRIOR TO INITIATING PUBLIC INPUT ON INDIVIDUAL SITESHOUSING ELEMENT ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Staff Report
Meeting Date: August 12, 2020
To: Housing Element Advisory Committee Members
From: Don Neu, City Planner
Staff Contact: Don Neu, City Planner
Don. neu@carlsbadca.gov, 760-602-4612
Item No. (D
Subject: Confirmation of site selection methodologies proposed to meet the city's housing
obligations prior to initiating public input on individual sites.
Recommended Action
Receive information and provide recommendations and input on the proposed site selection
methodologies that will ultimately be used to identify possible housing sites.
Executive Summa
Along with presentations on RHNA and site selection criteria, the committee has started to discuss
approaches to identify sites that have the potential for producing housing to help satisfy the city's
RHNA obligations. During the July 8 HEAC meeting, the HEAC members individually ranked the
approaches, or site selection strategies, for the identification of housing sites (see Exhibit 1). These
rankings were intended to update City Council on the HEAC's work and the site selection strategies
preferred by the committee.
Since the meeting, staff has further refined the sites inventory and the approaches for sites
identification. This refinement of the methodologies warrants further committee discussion and a re-
evaluation of its rankings, which is why the matter is being brought back to the committee for further
consideration. A City Council workshop has been scheduled for August 27, 2020, to discuss the
Housing Element Update, including confirmation of the site selection methodologies. HEAC's
recommendations on the draft methodologies will be presented to the Councilmembers at that
workshop. For additional information on this topic, please refer to Housing Plan Update webpage,
www.carlsbadca.gov/housingplan.
Background
As previously reported, pursuant to state law, cities and counties in California are required to update
their respective Housing Element. The Housing Element is designed to provide a coordinated and
comprehensive strategy for promoting the production of safe, decent and affordable housing for
varying income -levels within the community for the next eight -year period, which will cover April
2021 through April 2029. For this housing period, which the state refers to as the sixth housing cycle,
the city's share of the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) is 3,873 housing units, broken
down by income -level. The city must demonstrate to the State Department of Housing and
Community Development (HCD) that it has adequate land capacity to accommodate the assigned
RHNA units.
Housing Element Advisory Committee Agenda Item 1
August 12, 2020
Page 2
City's Housing Allocation (Gross)
On July 10, 2020, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) Board of Directors adopted
the final Regional Housing Needs Assessment Plan for the San Diego region. The plan accepted HCD's
determination of 171,685 housing units needed in the region. Based on a SANDAG-developed
methodology, those units were allocated to the 18 cities and the unincorporated county. The City of
Carlsbad's share of the RHNA allocation for the sixth housing cycle is as follows:
2021-2029 RHNA ALLOCATION•
Very Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate + Total
1,311
784
749
1,029 3,873
When compared to the city's RHNA allocation for the fifth (current) housing cycle (2013-2021), which
is reflected in the chart below, the city was assigned 27% (1,126) fewer total housing units for this
upcoming housing cycle.
2013-2021 RHNA ALLOCATION BY INCOME
Very Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate + Total
912
693
1,062
2,332 4,999
Upon closer review, this reduction occurred in categories reserved for moderate and above -moderate
("moderate +" in the chart) income families, which is typically associated with single-family and lower
density development. When comparing RHNA units assigned to the low and very -low income
categories for the two cycles, the city was assigned a 31% (490) increase in assigned housing units,
which is typically associated with higher density development such as apartments and condominiums.
City's Housing Allocation (Net)
Once the RHNA has been assigned, the first step in updating a Housing Element involves assessing the
existing element to determine if the plan already has capacity to accommodate all or a portion of the
assigned housing units. The chart below shows the number of housing units, by income category, that
staff estimates can be carried over to the new housing plan. This is only an estimate as HCD has final
say as to whether a site(s) can be counted for future housing. This determination is made once a draft
of the Housing Element is submitted for review. Further, note that the very low and low-income
categories are combined and represented by "V/Low" in the chart.
Housing Element Advisory Committee Agenda Item 1
August 12, 2020
Page 3
Includes planned projects, three of which propose a state density bonus or local density increase that will result in an
additional 57 V/Low units and 226 moderate + units above the density allowed under current zoning.
z State HCD recommends that a buffer be built into the plan in the event a site does not get built to the density planned. Staff
assumed a buffer based on 15% of the RHNA. HCD recommends a buffer of 15 to 30% of the assigned RHNA (gross).
• Current General Plan
Relying as much as possible on the current plan is beneficial because residential development
planned under an existing housing plan has already been vetted with the community and
analyzed under CEQA. Also, the more units that can be carried over from the current plan to
the new plan reduces the need to find other properties to rezone/up zone. The number of
units reflected under this category represents vacant or underutilized sites. Underutilized sites
represent those not developed to their full potential and signify opportunities for additional
housing.
• Planned Projects (no rezone)
Per state law, development projects that are in the entitlement processes as of June 30, 2020
and anticipated to be constructed by the end of the eight -year cycle, can be counted towards
the RHNA obligations for the housing plan. The units listed in this section are associated with
development projects that are either approved (entitled but not built) or pending. The pending
projects do NOT propose a rezone and based on current allowed General Plan densities. The
exception is noted in the chart above for a few projects proposing increased densities through
means other than a rezone (i.e., state density bonus). The units realized through planned
projects are being identified separately as they represent a realistic view of the type and
density that can or may be achieved on those respective sites. Should the projects not get
approved/built, the city can still count the sites (underlying zoning) as part of its housing
inventory.
• Accessory Dwelling Unit
In recent years, the state legislature has relaxed laws to promote the production of accessory
dwelling units, which they see as a viable affordable housing choice. To help meet its RHNA
Housing Element Advisory Committee Agenda Item 1
August 12, 2020
Page 4
obligations, HCD is allowing jurisdictions to assume a unit count that is three to five times
average past production. HCD has advised Carlsbad to base its ADU production estimates on
permitting data from 2015 and 2016, or the years just prior to passage of the first round of
such encouraging legislation. The city's annual average ADU production rate for 2015 and
2016 was 25 units. For this housing cycle, staff assumed a rate that was three times the
average, or 75 ADUs per year.' This assumption likely will need support in the way of proposed
Housing Element programs that, for example, promote ADU awareness and education.
Furthermore, ADU construction is not linked to a specific quadrant and could occur anywhere
in the city's residential areas. Their development also does not count toward Growth
Management Plan dwelling unit caps.
Methodologies to Meet Housing Allocation
With housing unit targets established, there are several options that the city can consider in order to
meet its RHNA obligations. A chart identifying the methodologies is provided below. Included in the
chart is HEAC's July prioritizations for reference. Exhibit 2 describes each of the six methodologies
developed by staff since the HEAC's July meeting.
Site selection strategies for satisfying RHINIA
Considered by the HEAC on July 8 Developed by staff since July 8
1. Planned projects' 1. Assume mid -range densities
2. ADUs (@ 3x previous)' 2. Up -zone residential properties
3. Vacant (current GP)' 3. City -owned properties
4. Industrial to residential 4. Commercial to residential
5. Commercial/Other to residential 5. Industrial to residential
6. Increase residential density 6. Planned projects (proposing rezone)
7. Underutilized
'Methodologies used to determine RHNA net figures
Discussion
At this time, staff would like to review with the committee the information provided in this report,
which will be presented to City Council later in August. Staff also requests additional discussion from
committee members on their methodology rankings. For example, committee members are
encouraged to emphasize why they ranked one approach higher over another and why certain
approaches were placed as a greater priority. In order to bring a joint recommendation to City
Council, City Staff and consultants encourage the HEAC to find a consensus on the best housing
approach or approaches.
Public Notification
This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for viewing at
least 72 hours prior to the meeting date.
1 HCD permits a jurisdiction to count toward its RHNA obligations the units it estimates will be produced over a nearly nine-year projection period. In the
San Diego region, this period began June 30, 2020 and will end April 15, 2029.
Housing Element Advisory Committee Agenda Item 1
August 12, 2020
Page 5
Exhihits
1. July 8, 2020 Committee member rankings on RHNA site selection strategies
2. Site selection strategies developed by staff since the July 8 HEAC meeting
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Housing Element Advisory Committee
Site Selection Strategy Ranking
J u ly 8, 2020
Luna Proulx Barnett Evans Novak Perez
Sachs Streicher Weis
1
1
1
5
1
3
1
4
6
4
4
3
3
7
3
5
7
3
7
7
4
4
4
3
4
2
6
6
6
5
5
2
1
7
3
4
7
1
6
1
5
6
5
2
5
6
7
7
3
5
2
5
2
2
2
6
2
OPTIONS:
1 Planned Projects
2 ADUs (@ 3X previous)
3 Vacant (current GP)
4 Industrial to R-30 designation
5 Commercial/Other to R-30 designation
6 Increase Residential Density
7 Underutilized
COMMITTEE RANKING
1
3
4
7
6
5
2
UPDATED Site Selection Methodologies Exhibit 2
1. Assume Midrange Densities for high residential densities
The General Plan assigns residential properties a range of densities that can be constructed. For example, the R-
30 land use designation allows a residential density range of 23-30 du/ac. Under the current Housing Element,
staff assumed that developers would develop at the lower density range (minimum, or 23 du/ac).
This methodology suggests that by requiring developers to build at the middle of the residential density range
instead of at the minimum (26.5 vs. 23 du/ac), the city could generate additional units that could be applied
towards our very low and low-income RHNA allocations.
o Benefits
No change in zoning required; approach successfully applied to the city's Housing Element for the fourth
housing cycle (2005-2013).
o Drawbacks
Site and/or design constraints may frustrate the ability to achieve midrange density
2. Up -zone existing residentially zoned properties
The current General Plan assigns more than enough sites to meet our above -moderate income category.
One methodology is to up zone vacant or underutilized residential properties that have lower zoned
densities to accommodate higher density development. Under this methodology, the existing
designations of the vacant and underutilized sites would change as follows:
o R-4 (0-4 du/ac) to R-23 (15-23 du/ac); or R-30 (23-30 du/ac)
o R-15 (8 to 15 du/ac) to R-23 (15-23 du/ac); R-30 (23-30 du/ac); or, R-35 (30-35 du/ac)
o R-23 (15-23 du/ac) to R-30 (23-30 du/ac); R-35 (30-35 du/ac); or, R-40 (35-40 du/ac)
Those properties affected by this methodology are primarily concentrated in the Northeast Quadrant
near El Camino Real and College Boulevard (Sunny Creek/Local Facility Management Zone 15) and in the
Southwest Quadrant, including the Ponto area.
o Benefits
Affects existing residential zoned properties; helps balance the types (income levels) of housing to
be built in the city; additional density could make infrastructure completion more feasible (LFMZ
15).
o Drawbacks
To achieve a density of 35 or 40 du/ac, building size will likely need to be four to five stories;
introduces higher density development in lower density neighborhoods; and, while this
methodology increases low income unit counts, it decreases above moderate unit counts.
3. City -owned properties
The city currently owns or holds interest in a few properties that could be rezoned to allow for future lower income
housing. Examples include the city -owned industrial/office lots on College Boulevard near Palomar Point Way and
the (parking lot at) The Shoppes @ Carlsbad. It should be noted that on June 15, 2020, Brookfield Properties, the
Description of site selection strategies developed by staff since the July 8 HEAC meeting
August 12, 2020
Page 2
current owners of the Shoppes @ Carlsbad, informed the city of their interest in repurposing the shopping center
to allow a mixed -use development.
o Benefits
Vacant, city -owned property; results in a higher density project with higher percentage of dedicated
affordable units; provides housing near job centers and transit corridors.
o Drawbacks
Residential use inconsistent with 2017 Real Estate Strategic Plan; property is not always convenient to
neighborhood goods and services
4. Convert commercial properties to high density residential
While the city must plan for commercial and retail growth to serve the additional housing growth, there are a few
properties in the city that are currently zoned for commercial use that could feasibly be rezoned to accommodate
higher density residential development. Specifically, the vacant commercially -designated portion of property on
the northeast corner of College Boulevard and El Camino Real (known as the Walmart site), a cluster of small,
vacant parcels in the Ponto area, and a commercial site partially improved with a parking lot along Calle Barcelona
opposite The Forum Carlsbad shopping center.
o Benefits
Sites are generally close to jobs and neighborhood goods and services.
o Drawbacks
Removal of land designated for commercial services could result in loss of tax revenue; neighborhood
conveniences and could potentially cause increase in VMT for surrounding vacant residential lots.
5. Convert select industrial properties to higher density residential
Under the current general plan, there are several industrial lots that have remained vacant since their original
grading 10-13 years ago. Many of the sites are east and west of Melrose Drive and one underutilized site along
Cougar Drive and Palmer Wayjust east of El Camino Real. Together, the sites total almost 50 acres. Another
methodology to achieve RHNA targets is to rezone some of these industrial lots to allow high density residential
development. This option would re -designate certain properties from Planned Industrial to a high density
residential designation, thereby generating units that can count towards our very low- and low-income RHNA
allocations.
o Benefits
Virtually all sites being considered are vacant and unconstrained, thereby resulting in a high number of
units; provides housing near job centers and transit corridors
o Drawbacks
Increases vehicle miles traveled (VMT); potential for residential uses in industrial areas; not always
convenient to neighborhood goods and services.
6. Consider other Planned Projects (proposed or potential rezone)
Not reflected in the planned projects in the section above are active proposals that could contribute to meeting the
city's RHNA need. While each has formally filed development applications, they are not counted as part of the
Description of site selection strategies developed by staff since the July 8 HEAC meeting
August 12, 2020
Page 3
planned projects above, however, because they seek land use changes or propose to residentially develop
commercial land.
o Benefits
Actual applications reflecting housing type and density that can be achieved on site
o Drawbacks
Projects require a rezone; if projects are denied, city loses units.