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Home My WebLink About2009-03-03; City Council; MinutesMINUTES CITY OF CARLSBAD CITY COUNCIL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STUDY SESSION AND FUTURE PROGRESS AND OPERATIONS PLANNING WORKSHOP AND ANNUAL GOAL SETTING DATE OF MEETING: March 3, 2009 TIME OF MEETING: 8:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m. PLACE OF MEETING: WATER BOARD ROOM AND CHAMBERS Call to Order: The Mayor called the meeting to order at 8:00 am. Roll Call: All Council members were present, plus the City Manager and the City Attorney and staff as necessary throughout the workshop. Public Comment: The Mayor announced the purpose of the workshop and called for public comment. There was no public comment. The Mayor then called for Council reports. The Mayor reported that Tri-City had requested support in its attempt to obtain an exemption or variance for a time to meet certain earthquake standards. The Mayor called upon Management and Organizational Development Facilitator, Michele Tamayo, to explain the activities of the day. Ms. Tamayo summarized the schedule for the day and called upon the City Manager to summarize the list of major accomplishments from the key goals and objectives and updates to them. The City Manager explained that staff is now working on the 2009-2010 budget and presented the key City Council goals as stated on the report entitled "Balanced Community Development" (on file in the Office of the City Clerk). In response to a question from the Mayor, the City Manager responded that no "core-work" had been reduced significantly during this budget year but that may change in the 2009-2010 budget year. The City Manager called on Planning Director Neu, who presented the core-work and the balanced community development priority that is handled by his department and summarized significant accomplishments. After Council discussion, the City Manager agreed to return with a report and further information on the Downtown Business Retention and Recruitment Program. The City Manager then introduced Municipal Projects Director Joe Garuba to discuss the power plant application for a new proposed power plant. Mr. Garuba presented a handout showing the "revised schedule" (on file in the Office of the City Clerk) and answered the Council's questions. He then introduced Public Works Director Pruim who discussed the transportation and circulation programs and activities and summarized the missing links in the circulation element roadways; Cannon Reach 4, portions of College, Marron and Poinsettia Lane. The Mayor asked about a potential trench cut ordinance. Director Pruim explained that all of these missing links will have significant environmental issues but remain in the Circulation Element of the General Plan. The Council requested a presentation at a regular meeting on the Traffic Coordination-Timing Plans, including travel times along El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Rd. The Council further requested a future meeting on an update to the Traffic Management and Strategic Plan. The City Manager explained that the Strategic Plan will be completed in June and presented to the Council thereafter but with an eye to presenting it sooner, if possible. The City Manager introduced Deputy City Manager Elliott who presented the financial health portion of the Council's priority and explained the desirability of a 10-year forecast. Then he presented the core-work, significance and efforts with the on-going work in this area. Mr. Elliott explained that the legislature had recently adopted a law pertaining to prevailing wages and the Council requested a letter be prepared to all charter cities on this issue. Mr. Elliott then introduced Police Chief Zoll and Fire Chief Crawford, who explained the "Safe Community" and the efforts, programs and activities to maintain a safe and secure community through collaborative partnerships. Special Projects Manager Hammann then presented an update on the Joint First Responders Training Facility, which is now 60% designed and will be presented to Council at a regular meeting for discussion and consideration of advertising for bids in July. It will also be accompanied by a business plan to maximize revenue from the facility by use of other agencies or the public. The Mayor called for a recess at 9:42 a.m. and reconvened the meeting workshop at 9:51 a.m. The City Manger introduced Public Works Director Pruim for a presentation on "Environmental Management" and discussed programs and activities for an environmentally sensitive community by focusing on conservation, storm water, sewage collection and treatment, solid waste, and cost effective and efficient use of energy including alternative energy sources. The Council requested an agenda item on this issue requesting and specific permission to seek specific grants as necessary to assist in the implementation of this program. Parks and Recreation Director Albright then presented the parks, trails and open space and efforts to develop and maintain a broad range of open space and recreational facilities that actively address citizen needs which are fiscally responsible and are consistent with the General Plan and the Growth Management Standards. He explained the Cost Recovery Pyramid 2009 concept based on public and staff consensus for the recommendation on the amount of program activities fee recovery. Special Projects Manager Hammann then presented an update on the Alga Norte Park Project which Council had previously determined to phase. It is currently estimated at $32.7 million and that estimate included using prevailing wages. The Council wished to know what it would cost at this time and what the timing for development of it would be. Mr. Hammann explained that this would be addressed later in the day. Deputy City Manager Elliott presented the "Learning Culture and Arts" priority and explained the program activities and projects to promote and support learning, cultural opportunities and the arts within the community and the city organization. He further explained that the Library Director is working on a new Library Strategic Initiative Work Plan. Communications Director Ray discussed communications to ensure that the community members and Council and staff are well informed, continuing to be a more responsive government while providing a high level of citizen confidence in government. She explained the core-work, significant accomplishments and on-going efforts to accomplish this priority. The public educational and governmental programs now appear on Channel 24 and presented a preview of the new City website. She explained that her department is now working on a governance document for Council consideration of the content, programs, policies and regulations regarding its use. There will be a future Council workshop on the website design after the basic web page is up and running. She further explained that it is anticipated that the live date for the operation of the new website is approximately April. Public Works Director Pruim discussed water issues to ensure, in the most cost-effective manner, water quality and reliability to the maximum extent practical, to deliver high quality potable and reclaimed water incorporating drought-resistant community principles. He updated the Council on the core-work, significant accomplishments and on-going efforts to accomplish this priority. Deputy City Manager Elliott discussed citizen connection and partnership to embrace connectivity through the effective use of technological and interpersonal mediums. He summarized the core-work, significant accomplishments and on-going efforts to accomplish this priority and introduced Dave Curtis, Assistant Librarian, who discussed a proposed 311 program, a centralized information referral system for City business which is akin to a general information center. Facilitator Tamayo then summarized the presentation so far and the Mayor called for a break at 11:14 a.m. and reconvened at 11:23 a.m. Finance Director Irvine then introduced the 10-year economic forecast with an aid of a handout (on file in the Office of the City Clerk) and handed out the 10-year forecast (also on file in the Office of City Clerk). The Mayor then called for lunch at 12:26 p.m. The Council continued its discussion of prior information and returned to the board room at 1:32 p.m. Economic Development Director Haas presented and introduced a discussion of economic development with the aid of a power point presentation prepared for the workshop upon consultation with Applied Development Economics Inc. (on file in the Office of the City Clerk) and introduced Mr. Doug Svensson AICP, President and Kathy Studwell, AICP, Senior Associate of Applied Development Economics from Walnut Creek, California. Following questions and discussion by Council, looks forward to a return of these efforts with a more focused discussion and emphasis on opportunities at a future workshop in which the Chamber of Commerce and business leaders in the community would be able to participate. The Mayor called for a break at 2:46 p.m. and reconvened at 2:54 p.m. Community Development Director Holder then introduced a discussion of Envision Carlsbad and showed a video entitled "Planning for the Future" which will appear on Channel 24 tonight (the Public Educational Governmental channel). She then updated the Council on the Envision Carlsbad General Plan Update process. Facilitator Tamayo summarized the day so far and turned to the priorities for 2009. Council discussed the principles to apply to arrive at the priorities for 2009 and discussed the most important priorities from among the list of 10. Following discussion and multi-vote process the following list of priorities was determined: • Alga Norte Park Project Processing • Traffic Management Strategic Plan • Management of and Response to Recession Impacts (Internal Efficiencies) • Joint First Responders Training Facility • Open Space Acquisition • Desalination Project • Envision Carlsbad The City Manager thanked the Council for its careful consideration of the information today and thanked the Leadership Team for its complete participation. The Mayor thanked all Council members and staff for this information and adjourned the meeting at 4:08 p.m. Respectfully submitted RONALD R. BALL City Attorney as Clerk Pro Tern rn Balanced Community Development \ft Be a city that connects community, place and spirit, through balanced and economically sustainable land uses. Core Work • Overseeing Development Activities • Development Services • Application Processing • Capital Projects Permitting • Environmental Review • Long Range Planning • Regional Planning - SANDAG • Growth Management Administration/Compliance • Redevelopment and Housing Programs • Open Space/ Habitat Programs • Economic Development and Real Estate Efforts Significant Accomplishments • State Finding of Compliance Received on Draft Housing Element • HMP Implementation • Prop D Public Engagement Process Completed • Development Review Team Formed • Ponto Beachfront Village Vision Plan • Low-cost Visitor Serving Comm. Requirement Defeated at Coastal Commission for DKN Hotel/Marriott Springhill Suites • Prop C Open Space Committee Submitted Final Report to City Council • SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Map Updated to add the Barrio and kept Quarry Creek site on the map (areas eligible for TransNet funding) • Significant Development Applications • Lease Negotiations Redevelopment Areas • Village Master Plan Amendments to the California Coastal Commission for action • Business Retention and Recruitment Program - Initiated Implementation • Accepted a Golden Footprints Award from Walk San Diego for the Village Affordable Housing • Construction initiated on 201 affordable housing units • Down Payment Assistance and Minor Home Repair Program • Assisted 619 households with rental assistance Ongoing • Open Space Acquisition • Power Plant C$h>- CITY OF V CARLSBAD Transportation & Circulation Provide and support a safe and efficient transportation system that moves people, services and goods throughout Carlsbad. Core Work •Street Repair/ Maintenance • Pavement Overlay Program •Traffic Engineering/ Design • Completion of circulation element roadways • Travel time studies on El Camino Real and Palomar Airport Road •Traffic Control Maintenance •Signals • Signage •Striping Significant Accomplishments • Hired traffic signal systems engineer • Updated traffic impact fee program • Updated ECR and PAR time based traffic signal coordination timing plans • Completed Pedestrian Master Plan • Completed Bicycle Master Plan • Completion of Rancho Santa Fe and Olivenhain intersection project Ongoing • Traffic Management Strategic Plan CITY OF CARLSBAD Financial Health Pursue and implement proactive strategies that support sustainable economic health and manage City resources effectively. Core Work • Fiscal Discipline - Conservative ten-year forecasting, balanced budgets • Careful Investment and Reserve Policy •Thorough Fiscal Monitoring and Reporting • Extensive Annual Budget Analysis and Evaluation • Auditing and reporting on various financial systems •. i Significant Accomplishments • Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) Award from Calif. Soc. Of Municipal Fin. Officers • Water and sewer rates updated • Development impact fee updates • Created more efficient and effective purchasing guidelines • Upgraded financial accounting system, on time, under budget • Upgrading computer security to allow credit card transactions • Created general fund reserve policy •Achieved general fund reserve target • Regular economic updates to Council • Implemented expenditure savings plan Ongoing •Charter - purchasing guidelines • Charter - other opportunities • Guidelines for managed service delivery • Management of and response to recession impacts (Later in workshop) • Land use Economic Enhancement (Later in workshop) • Economic Development Strategic plan (Later in workshop) •Asset Maximization (Later in workshop) CARLSBAD Community Maintain a safe and secure community through collaborative partnerships. Public safety providers support high standards, deliver protection of life and property and encourage community involvement in prevention and preparedness efforts. Core Work • Police Enforcement • Crime Prevention • Crime Analysis •Community Policing •Juvenile Justice Program • Police Explorers • Emergency Preparedness • Emergency Operations Center Training • Carlsbad Emergency Management Action Team (CEMAT) • Fire Prevention • Code Enforcement •Public Education • Emergency Response • Emergency Management Services •Fire •Technical Rescue • Recovery •Trauma Intervention Program •Chaplin Program • After School Teen Programs • Graffiti Removal Significant Accomplishments • Opened Fire Station #6 •CERT program successfully created and now operational • Held two Safety and Security workshops to local businesses • Implemented Entertainment Ordinance • Acquisition of Future Fire Station 3 site at Robertson Ranch Ongoing •Trail Safety •Standards of Cover •Joint First Responders Training Facility PVb £P 5» CITY OF CARLSBAD Environmental Management An environmentally sensitive community by focusing on: conservation, storm water, sewage collection and treatment, solid waste, and cost effective and efficient use of energy including alternative energy sources. Core Work •Carlsbad Environmental Resource Management Team (CERMT) Work • Green Team • Fleet Management • Storm Water •Waste Discharge Requirements • Habitat Management Plan implementation • Lagoon and Ocean outfall monitoring •Total Maximum Daily Load testing (TMDL) •Solid Waste Program • State greenhouse gas legislation monitoring Significant Accomplishments •Adopted Fats, Oils, and Grease Management Ordinance • Complied with new storm water requirements (JURMP and WURMP) • Set protocol for measuring greenhouse gas emissions for local government • Completed greenhouse gas calculation for Carlsbad • Beach cleanup • Lake Calavera Flood Control • Center for Natural Lands Management habitat management contract • Energy Management (City Facilities) • Diesel Engine Retrofits • No beach closures • No Notices of Violation Ongoing •State Greenhouse Gas Legislation Actions • Energy conservation and generation project CITY OF CARLSBAD Parks, Trails & Open Spaces Acquire, develop and maintain a broad range of open space and recreational facilities that actively address citizen needs which are fiscally responsible, and are consistent with the General Plan and Growth Management Standards. Core Work • Parks •Trails • Street Trees • Medians Landscapes • Facilities Landscapes • Downtown Landscapes • Northern Beach Accesses •School Athletic Fields/Courts • Community Garden Commons • Recreation Centers • Enrichment Programs Significant Accomplishments • Successful first year of operations for golf course •Senior Center renovation completed • Accepted three miles of new trails • Completed Poinsettia Park Tennis Courts • Non-Smoking Ordinance passed Ongoing • Recreation Cost Recovery Analysis •Alga Norte Park/Pool Project CARLSBAD i Learning Culture & Arts Promote and support continuous learning, cultural opportunities and the arts within the community and the City organization. Core Work • Provide information and literature for Community • Offer programs that expose citizens to literature, develop themselves and experience a variety of performing arts • Literacy instruction for English-speaking adults • Visual Arts support through Cannon Art Gallery, public art installations and sculpture exhibits • Provide meeting space for community based programs and events •Support arts education through exhibitions, programs and participative art making • Encourage local artists and authors ignifleant Accomplishments Opened Library Learning Center Installed public artwork as part of Fire Station #6 opening Presented National Geographic Greatest Portraits national-level exhibition m Ongoing • Library Strategic Initiative Work Plan •Sister City Program CARLSBAD Communications Ensure that community members, Council and staff are well informed, continuing to be a more responsive government while providing a high level of citizen confidence in its government. Core Work •Strategiccommunication planning • Public information •Community outreach and involvement • Media relations • Informational materials and publications • Web communication • Emergency response communication •Video production •Special event planning • Advertising and marketing • Communication training for city staff • Internal communication •Schools program •Volunteer program Significant Accomplishments • Charter City election informational program • Proposition D public information program completed • Power plant public information program conducted • City branding completed • E-mail database expanded to 7,800 • City Web site redesign completed • Cable foundation sunset •Council meeting video production moved in-house from Time Warner • City Calendar revamped to cut costs by approximately 35 percent • Carlsbad Connected newsletter redesign completed • Spokesperson training and five communication trainings conducted for staff • Envision Carlsbad public outreach plan developed •Volunteer hours increased by 30 percent • Donated funding for five-year supply of City Stuff Fast Facts secured Ongoing • Cable television channel transition •Website update CITY OF CARLSBAD Water Ensure, in the most cost-effective manner, water quality and reliability to the maximum extent practical, to deliver high quality potable and reclaimed water incorporating drought-resistant community principles. Core Work •Watersystem maintenance • Potable and recycled water Master Plans • Ensure water quality • Diversify water supply portfolio • Complete recycled water phase II customer connection • Residential water use audits Significant Accomplishments • Drought Ordinance passed • Implemented intern agriculture water program Ongoing • Desalination • Drought Management Plan •Automated meter reading CARLSBAD Citizen Connection and Partnership Be a city that embraces Community connectivity through the effective use of technological and interpersonal mediums. Core Work • Citizens Academy • CityStuff •Volunteers • Ex. Trail volunteer program •Special Events • Neighborhood Watch program • Guide program •Public Works Fair • Fire Open House Significant Accomplishments • Proposition D Outreach / Committee work completed / Vision report received by Council • Citizen Emergency Resource Team (CERT) • Various Workshops • Envision Carlsbad - Established Citizens Committee Ongoing • Citizen response/ Interaction 311 • Envision Carlsbad (Later in workshop) I CITY OF V CARLSBAD Revised Schedule We are here Other agency approvals Hearing/Workshop/Planned Event or Filing Draft Preliminary Staff Assessment (PSA) PSA Workshop Final Staff Assessment (FSA) FSA Workshop Revised FSA Evidentiary Hearings Preliminary Decision CEC Decision Plant Construction Plant Commissioning Potential Online Date CEC Initial Schedule April 2008 April 2008 May 2008 TBD November 2008 24 Months Nov 2010 Carlsbad Anticipated Schedule December 2008 January 2009 April/May 2009 Summer 2009 Fall 2009 4th Qtr 2009 1st Qtr 2010 2/3 Qtr 20 10 30-36 Months 4-6 months 4th Qtr 2013 3/2/2009 CARLSBAD CITY COUNCIL WORKSHOP Applied Development Economics, Inc. Doug Svensson, AICP, President Kathie Studwell, AICP, Senior Associate March 3, 2009 Overview 2008-2009 Carlsbad Economic Development Goals ADE: Who We Are Why Do Economic Development? Program Components & Examples Project Timeline & Scope Summary Discussion Carlsbad ED Goals for '08- '09 • Land Use Economic Enhancement • Real Estate Asset Maximization • Economic Development Strategic Plan • RFP • Selection of Applied Development Economics (ADE) 3/2/2009 About ADE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SERVICES 1 Economic and Market Research • Industry Cluster-based Economic Development • Business Attraction and Retention Strategies 1 Marketing Plans and Implementation 1 Real Estate Feasibility Analysis 1 Tourism Analysis 1 Place Branding 1 Business Retention & Expansion PLANNING SERVICES • General and Specific Plan Preparation • Strategic Planning 1 Downtown Revitalization ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING • Economic Forecasting and Analysis • Environmental Economics • Labor Market Analysis • Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis • Survey Research FUNDING SERVICES AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS • Funding Services • Infrastructure Financing Plans Recent Economics Strategies Atascadero Mil pitas Cerritos Capitola Santa Cruz County Colusa County Alameda Napa Understand purpose and components of economic development Short-term v. long-term strategies Required partnerships & investments Expectations for current project 3/2/2009 Why Do Economic Development? "Carlsbad has a diverse and healthy economic base which provides employment to its residents, economic vitality to the community and necessary revenue to support City services." isse ax? Improve Quality of Life Increase Job Opportunities Provide Better Shopping Opportunities Improve Economic Vitality Finance City Services Local Economy 3/2/2009 Economic Development: Program Components • Housing, Education, Quality of Life • Land Use, Redevelopment, Capital Improvement Programs • Business Retention & Expansion • Place Branding & Marketing • Supportive Regulatory Climate • New Business Development • Workforce Development Quality of Life Quality neighborhoods, choice in housing Parks, recreation, libraries Vibrant city center, shopping areas, culture Quality schools, lifelong learning opportunities Public safety, low crime rate Long-term approach City leadership & funding essential Example: Milpitas executive housing Physical Assets/Infrastructure Reserving adequate space for growth of industrial and commercial activity Locating industrial and commercial activity in appropriate locations Providing necessary infrastructure and services Long-term approach City leadership and funding essential Example: Cerritos; San Buenaventura 3/2/2009 Business Retention & Expansion • Outreach • Targeted approach; targeted marketing; on-going • Team approach • Build committed, on-going network of service providers and resources; training, technical assistance & one-to-one consultation and mentoring Business Retention & Expansion (Cont.) • Survey and feedback • Track business health with business assessments • Employment & sales tracking; Real-estate tracking; Retail tracking • Short to Mid-Term • Networked Approach • Example: Cerritos; San Jose Business Owner Space Place Branding & Marketing • Inventory of assets • land, location, infrastructure, education, recreation, culture, etc. • SWOT analysis • Branding Blueprint • define product; target; market position; pricing; promise; packaging; message. • Integrated, targeted marketing strategy • Targeted Business recruitment • Targeted tourism marketing • Short to Mid-Term • Requires Strong City Support Example: Laughlin, NV; Fairfield, CA. 3/2/2009 Supportive Regulatory Climate Permit processing: on-line; transparent; predictable • Expansion • New construction • Design guidelines & landscaping • Signage Taxation Short to Mid-Term Requires City leadership Example: Silicon Valley New Business Development Technology transfer Incubators: mentoring, space, resources • Focus on targeted industries: nano- technology; ICT; bio; food; retail; clean tech; water; agriculture Industry clusters • recreation equipment; tourism, etc. Training & technical assistance Long Term Supported by, not usually led by City Example: San Diego; Central Valley; Ventura Workforce Development • Targeted to specific industry needs • Strong linkages between industry and education • Link workers with jobs • Major activity of industry cluster groups • Grant funding & state/federal funding • Short to Mid-Term • Supported by, not usually led by City • Example: San Diego 3/2/2009 Economic Development Funding Sources • Community Development Block Grant • U.S. Economic Development Admin. • Regional Transportation Planning Funds • Workforce Development Funds • Redevelopment Tax Increment Revenue Timeline & Scope UMM« Environment - Economic Trends -Physical -Socio-economic Business Climate Survey S.W.O.T. -Strengths -Weaknesses -Opportunities -Threats Draft Strategic Plan -Goals & Strategies -Implementation Strategy • CIS Evaluation • Marketing Plan • Funding Strategy •Land Use •Workforce •Fiscal Final Strategic Discussion Key Economic Development Issues Top Priorities for 2009 City of Carlsbad Ten Year Financial Forecast March 2009 Agenda Economic Outlook 10 Year Forecast nMajor Revenues nMajor Expenditures Next Steps : i^|HHH^H|^^BHBI^HIHHHHHHHHHHHHBHHMHHHHHPRffiP«wm^P^^^Economy - Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation • - "Difficult times ahead for the nation, state and Southern California through most of 2009." • Expects economy to "bottom out" by summer 2009 • Unemployment in California expected to be 10.5% in 2009 and improve in 2011 Economy - Dow Jones Industrial Average • Down for the sixth straight month in February • Average is now half of record high of $14,164 Economy - UCLA Anderson Forecast - National • Gross Domestic Product n-4.1% 4th Quarter 2008 n-3.4% 1st Quarter 2009 D-0.8% 2nd Quarter 2010 • Unemployment n October 2008-6.5% n Late 2009-8.5% Economy - UCLA Anderson Forecast - California • Unemployment n Late 2009-9.0% • Housing nEnd of downturn mid 2009 n Demand increase by 3rd Quarter 2009 • Forecast did not assume sales tax increase National Association for Business Economics • Unemployment to 9% by year end - 3.2 million jobs lost • Federal Budget deficit to $1.5 trillion by September 2009 4 Largest Revenue Sources 83% of General Fund • Property taxes (44%) • Sales taxes (23%) • Transient occupancy taxes (12%) • Franchise taxes (4%) Source: FY 2008-09 Revised Budget Property Tax Millions 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fiscal Year 2008 2009e Sales Tax Millions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009eFiscal Year 10 Sales Taxes HISTORIC SALES TAX BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA Benchmark Year $7.000,000 (4.000,000 $3.000,000 {2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 §s; ts <5 « 5555 ill iiiiiiiiifiii -c»1ib,dH<d.v.lopm.nl»™.- CwMMd Prwnfam Outtato -•—TlwFofun 11 Safes Taxes Top 25 Contributors Through the 3rd Quarter 2008 ARCO AM/PM Marts Aviara Four Seasons Bob Baker Chrysler Jeep Bob Baker Volkswagen Cal Worthington Dodge Carlsbad Fuels Service Station Coach Stores Costco Wholesale Hoehn Mercedes-Benz Hoehn Used Cars Invitrogen JC Penney Company Ken Grody Ford Ken Grody GMC/Pontiac La Costa Resort and Spa Legoland California Lexus Macy's Department Store Pacific Sales Kitchen & Bath Sears Roebuck & Company Shell Service Stations Toyota Carlsbad Toyota Motor Credit Vons Grocery Company Weseloh Chevrolet 12 COPY 6 Transient Occupancy Taxes Millions '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 07 08 09e a All Other m Four Seasons/La Costa 13 12 month period Month of hotel stay *Does not include comp rooms Ave occupancy rate 61% Development-Related Revenues Development-Related Revenues D Building Permits a Building Plan Check Fi Planning Fees a Engineering Plan Check Fees 15 General Fund Expenditures $ Thousands 120,000 -f 100,000 f 80,000 H 60,000 f 40,000 -j 20,000 4 0 -2.5% Mill FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009b FY 2010e 16 BEST COPY 8 Forecast Assumptions • Three Year Recession with slow recovery in FY 2011 • Assumes expenditure reduction of $5.3M in FY 2009 (already approved by Council) and $3.5M additional expenditure reduction in 2010 • No new positions until 2013 • Retirement Rates assume 25-30% investment loss for FY 2009 17 Operating Forecast General Fund 10 Year Financial Forecast FY2006 FY2007 FY 2006 FY 2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY 2014 FY2015 FY 2016 FY2017 FY2016 Fiscal Yur "" Next Steps • Additional 5% Expenditure Savings Plan for FY 2009-10 • Continue Selective Hiring Freeze • Innovations/Efficiencies • No Plan to Use Reserves for Operating Expenditures • Continue to monitor economy and actions taken by Federal and State governments 19 10 3/2/2009 City of Carlsbad - General Fund Actual 2006-07 IRbVENUES ] 123,170 15% Total Revenues 123,170 [EXPENDITURES BASE: Goals One-time Capital outlay Contingency: 2.0% Transfers Hosp Grove Infrastructure replmnt (6.5%) Advance to SCCRDA Misc xfers 97,786 8.8% 4 3,325 1,802 275 7,200 4,845 LLD #1 Transfer Portion Only - Advances are in Balance Calc Total Base 115,237 ADDITIONAL BUDGET ITEMS: Additional Requests New Facilities Civic Center (net of vacated facilities) Public Works Center (net) Public Safety Training Center Aviara Park Comm Ctr Alga Norte - open Spring 1 1 (w/o pool) Alga Norte Pool - open Spring 1 1 Alga Norte Fees Pine Park Comm Ctr Poinsettia Park-Phase 2 Carrillo Ranch Phase 3 Veteran's Memorial Park Library Expansion Robertson Ranch Park Business Park (Zone 5) Actual (Rev)Projected 2009-10 Projected 2010-11 Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-13 Projected 2013-14 Projected 2014-15 Projected 2015-16 Projected 2016-17+ 110,225 -5.1% 110,476 0.2% 115,440 4.5% 123,225 6.7% 127,465 3.4% 135,776 6.5% 144,256 6.2% 152,386 5.6% 110,225 110,476 115,440 123,225 127,465 135,776 144,256 152,386 101,105 -2.6% 50 50 1,300 7,165 125 415 102,547 1.4% 50 50 1,300 7,181 125 400 107,724 5.0% 100 100 1,700 7,504 129 400 109,983 2.1% 100 250 2,000 8,010 133 412 113,670 3.4% 200 500 2,300 8,285 137 427 118,222 4.0% 350 1,000 2,300 8,825 141 441 123,446 4.4% 350 1,000 2,300 9,377 150 458 128,935 4.4% 350 1,000 2,300 9,905 100 475 .110,2091 111,653 117,656 120,887 125,518 131,280 137,080 143,065 -2.5%1.3% 268 5.4%2.7% 546 562 753 —* 3.8% 404 582 780 1,182 (424) 322 4.6% 970 418 602 806 1,223 (437) 464 333 4.4% 1,006 433 624 836 1,268 (450) 481 345 4.4% 1,044 450 648 868 1,316 (463) 500 359 Projected 2017-18 160,110 5.1% 160,110 134,572 4.4% 350 1,000 2,300 10,407 50 492 149,170 4.3% 1,081 466 671 898 1,362 (477) 517 371 751 [TOTAL EXPENDITURES 115,237 110,209 111,920 118,202 122,202 128,364 135,659 141,625 147,787 154,810 17%6%5%6%4%4%5% [REVENUES OVER (UNDER) EXP 7,933 1r131 I 16 (1,444)|(2,762)[1,023 |<899"117 |2,631 4,599 |5,300 Percent of Budget 7%M%«3%0%-1%-2%1%-1%0%2%3% Expenditure Reductions Infrastructure Replacement Incentive Pay/Salaries Capital Outlay Goals Council Contingency Expenditure Reductions Total (3,647) (250) (381) (1,000) (5,278) (3,586) (254) (40) (120) (4,000) BEST COPY 3% 3/2/2009 GENERAL FUND BALANCE (unreserved, undesignated) Fis Be En Av Ct cal Year Ending 2006-07 ginning 47,519 VLF payback or State action Loan from PIL-sw for Poinsettia Retiree Health Care Trust LLD #1 Advance Golf Course Operations Advance Carryforwards/Changes in Encumbrances (3,260) Rev over exp at % of bdgt 7,933 Public Safety Training Center ding fund balance 52,192 30% of budget 46,095 erage fund balance 49,856 7ange in Ave fund balance -27.0% tt S4 12 K <s<; 2007-08" it~2008-09 i^S^^^^^^^^^^^^^^*^ *IB M46,059-*s>Wift47,558 * 2009-10 47,558 (4,000) (1.600) 16 41,974 >i "'S33,063- 44,766 -4.4% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 41,974 38,930 35,268 39,791 38,891 4,000 (1,600) (900) (500) (1,444) (2,762) 1,023 (899) 117 38,930 35,268 39,791 38,891 39,009 33,We-1"«: *!35,48f p* '•" 36^661 -| '""••'• SfySOS^'"? **"48|iS98 40,452 37,099 37,529 39,341 38,950 -9.6% -8.3% 1.2% 4.8% -1.0% Assumptions Revenues over (under) Expenditures \ \ \ ^ / * \ A, / ^•^ / ^*^^V liiiii^^ * Revenues over (under) Expenditures in 10 » I * ;9 fl g Changes from June 2008 Retirement costs based on CALPERS1 projected losses in FY 2009 Reduce Council Contingency by $1.0m in FY 2009, FY 2010 and FY 201 Reduced Capital Outlay and Goals to Help Balance Forecast Eliminate VLF in FY 2009 and 2010 Move PW Center out two years Move Alga Nolle Aquatics Complex out two years Move Alga Node Park out one year Move Carillo Ranch Ph 3 out two years 2015-16 2016-17 I 2017-18 39,009 41,640 41,640 2,631 4,599 5,300 41,640 46,239 46,940 < .- •' 42,488 | ' *-- ;«W,336 | ' 46i443 40,266 42,624 44,290 2.4% 9.4% 10.0% I BEST %^Pr^^F mr W FY 2009 Mid Year Projections March2009 with Grwth Proj.xlsx Key Revenue Asssumptions Base Assessed Value Sales Tax Growth Rate (Base) Transient Occupancy Growth Rate (Base) 3/2/2009 4:43 PM Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2.5% -5.4% -13.0% -2.0% -8.7% -2.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.5% Key Expenditure Assumptions COLA: General Safety PERS Rates: General Safety Health Insurance Growth Rate New Positions Expenditure Index (M&O Growth) 3.2% 4.4% 27.8% 37.6% 5.0% 3 3.8% 2.8% 3.0% 28.2% 36.4% 5.0% 0 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 28.2% 36.2% 5.0% 0 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 0 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 4 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 9 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 9 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 9 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 9 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 33.2% 46.2% 5.0% 9 3.5% Assumed Reductions Personnel Maintenance and Operations Infrastructure Replacement (6.5% of Rev.) Council Contingency Goal Capital TOTAL REDUCTIONS ($1,028) ($3,000) ($250) ($1,000) ($5,278) ($1,024) ($2,816) ($120) ($40) ($4,000) 3/2/2009 General Fund Revenues 3/2/2009 5:00 PM Sales tax Prop Tax (ERAF and in-lieu) TOT VLF SDGE franchise Other Franchise Total big 5 All others Total GF Big 5 % of total % sales tax % prop tx % TOT % VLF % SDGE % other franchise GF growth Actual Actual Budget (Re^ Projected 2007 27,888 43,651 12,929 608 2,880 2,466 90,422 32,748 123,170 73.41% 2.2% 20.8% 12.3% 3.6% -4.4% 2.0% 2008 28,012 47,196 14,278 450 2,113 2,523 94,571 25,266 119,837 78.92% 0.4% 8.1% 10.4% -26.0% -26.6% 2.3% 2009 26,276 50,557 13,496 150 2,013 2,506 94,998 21,161 116,159 81.78% -6.2% 7.1% -5.5% -66.7% -4.7% -0.7% 2010 24,168 48,336 13,226 0 2,129 2,466 90,324 19,901 110,225 81.95% -8.0% -4.4% -2.0% -99.8% 5.7% -1.6% 2011 23,853 47,989 13,226 150 2,185 2,494 89,897 20,579 110,476 81.37% -1.3% -0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2.6% 1.1% 2012 24,369 49,242 13,556 200 2,389 2,685 92,441 22,999 115,440 80.08% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 32.9% 9.3% 7.7% 2013 25,443 51,968 14,404 206 2,463 2,879 97,363 25,862 123,225 79.01% 4.4% 5.5% 6.3% 3.0% 3.1% 7.2% 2014 26,788 54,975 15,358 212 2,541 2,943 102,818 24,647 127,465 80.66% 5.3% 5.8% 6.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.2% 2015 28,294 58,379 16,053 218 2,621 3,056 108,621 27,155 135,776 80.00% 5.6% 6.2% 4.5% 3.0% 3.1% 3.8% 2016 29,567 62,042 17,308 225 2,706 3,131 114,979 29,277 144,256 79.70% 4.5% 6.3% 7.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2017 31,545 65,699 19,833 232 2,794 3,211 123,316 29,071 152,386 80.92% 6.7% 5.9% 14.6% 3.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2018 33,623 69,502 21,327 239 2,883 3,284 130,857 29,253 160,110 81.73% 6.6% 5.8% 7.5% 3.0% 3.2% 2.3% 18.4%-2.7%-3.1%-5.1%0.2%4.5%6.7%3.4%6.5%6.2%5.6%5.1% Personnel Salaries PERS Health benefits OT Part time/Temp Other benefits Net new/vacant positions Total Personnel M&O (not incl council cont) Goals/CIP operating Capital Outlay Council contingency Total Expenditure Transfers Total Expenditures Base 102,917 Expenditures 3/2/20094:38 PM Actual 2006-07 36,989 12.325 5,672 4,308 4,473 2,907 - 66,674 7.5% 30,376 97,786 8.8% 4 3,325 1,802 Actual 2007-08 40,408 13,713 6,446 4,743 4,303 2,745 - 72,358 8.5% 33,434 I 105,792 | 8.2%' - 3,307 1,293 Budget (Rev.) 2008-09 43,040 14,312 7,321 4,139 4,226 2,291 - 75,329 4.1% 28,465 103,794 •1.9% 170 90 1,300 Projected 2009-10 43,684 13,794 7,113 4,263 4,344 1,973 - 75,171 -0.2% 25,933 101,105 | -2.6% 50 50 1,300 Projected 2010-11 44,138 14,055 7,469 4,284 4,409 1,998 - 76,354 1 .6% 26,193 102,547 | 1.4% 50 50 1,300 Projected 2011-12 44,359 17,361 7,842 4,306 4,432 2,707 - 81,007 6.1% 26,717 107,724 i 5.0% 100 100 1,700 Projected 2012-13 44,802 17,535 8,275 4,349 4,476 2,733 294 82,465 1 .8% 27,518 109,983 | 2.1% 100 250 2,000 Projected 2013-14 45,993 17,886 8,793 4,436 4,565 2,786 724 85,183 3.3% 28,487 113,670 j 3.4%' 200 500 2,300 Projected 2014-15 48,096 18,422 9,344 4,569 4,702 2,870 754 88,758 4.2% 29,464 118,222 j 4.0% 350 1,000 2,300 Projected 2015-16 50,534 19,067 9,929 4,729 4,867 2,970 790 92,886 4.7% 30,560 123,446 j 4.4% 350 1,000 2,300 Projected 2016-17 53,093 19,735 10,550 4,894 5,037 3,073 828 97,211 4.7% 31,725 128,935 4.4% 350 1,000 2,300 Projected 2017-18 55.779 20,425 11,211 5,066 5,214 3.181 867 101,742 4.7% 32,830 134,572 j 4.4% ' 350 1,000 2,300 110,392 105,354 102,505 103,947 109,624 112,333 116,670 121,872 127,096 132,585 138,222 i 12,320 115,237 8,314 118,706 7.640 112,994 7,705 110,209 7,706 1 1 1 ,653 8,032 117,656 8,554 120,887 8.848 125,518 9,407 131,280 9.984 ! 10,480 i 137,080 i 143,065 10.949 149,170