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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020-03-24; City Council; ; 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report.~ CITY COUNCIL ~ Staff Report Meeting Date: To: From: Staff Contact: Subject: March 24, 2020 Mayor and City Council Scott Chadwick, City Manager Corey Funk, Associate Planner corey.funk@carlsbadca.gov or 760-434-4645 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report. Recommended Action CA Review ~ /J.___ Adopt a resolution accepting the 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report. Executive Summary The Housing Element Annual Progress Report is an information report prepared annually that details the status of the city's progress meeting its share of regional housing production goals and implementing the programs of its Housing Element. California Government Code Section 65400(a)(2) requires the City Council to consider this report at a public meeting. Discussion The attached 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report (Attachment A to Exhibit 1) has been prepared to fulfill the reporting requirements of the state (Government Code Section 65400(a)(2)) and the city's Housing Element Program 3.18. In addition, preparing and submitting the reports enables the city to apply for certain grants administered by the -California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) and San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG), including: • SANDAG -Smart Growth Incentive Program • SANDAG -Active Transportation Grant Program • HCD -Infill Infrastructure Grant Program • HCD -Housing-Related Parks Program • HCD --SB2 Planning Grant The 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report (Attachment A to Exhibit 1) includes: • A list of housing development applications deemed complete in the reporting year, along with the number of units included, approved, and disapproved in each application (Table A of the report). March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 1 of 33 • A list of housing projects, and their respective number of units, that were issued a completed entitlement, a building permit, and/or an approved final inspection, in the reporting year (Table A2 of the report) • The income category that each new housing unit satisfies in Tables A and A2 of the report, as defined by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development and the state Department of Housing and Community Development (i.e., very low, low, moderate, and above-moderate income categories); • Housing Production Status (Table B of the report) -Provides the status of housing production in the city and. the city's progress in meeting its share of regional housing needs during Calendar Year (CY) 2019. • Program Implementation Status (Table D of the report) -Provides the status of and the city's progress toward implementing the City of Carlsbad 2013-2021 Housing Element programs during CY 2019. • Requirements that did not apply to Carlsbad and were left unreported (Tables C, E, F and G of the report) Also included with this staff report is Exhibit 2-Description of Terms and Methods, which provides additional information about the Regional Housing Needs Assessment and the housing income levels. Fiscal Analysis Accepting this informational report has no fiscal impact. Next Steps Staff will provide this report to the California Office of Planning and Research, HCD, SAN DAG and the City of Carlsbad Planning Commission. Environmental Evaluation (CEQA} This report is categorically exempt from environmental review as per CEQA Guidelines Section 15306, which states that information collection activities are exempt from the provisions of CEQA. Public Notification and Outreach This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for public viewing and review at least 72 hours prior to scheduled meeting date. Exhibits 1. City Council resolution 2. Description of Terms and Methods March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 2 of 33 RESOLUTION NO. 2020-050 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, ACCEPTING THE 2019 HOUSING ELEMENT ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT EXHIBIT 1 WHEREAS, the Annual Housing Element Progress Report has been prepared to comply with Government Code Section 65400(a)(2), meet the grant funding requirements of certain San Diego Association of Governments, and California Department of Housing and Community Development programs, and implement Housing Element Program 3.18. The purpose of the report is to provide information to the City Council, the State Office of Planning and Research, the State Department of Housing and Community Development, San Diego Association of Governments and the public as to the status of the Housing Element programs, as well as mark the City's progress in meeting its share of the region's housing needs. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows: 1. That the above recitations are true and correct. 2. That the report (Attachment A) is accepted, and the City Planner is directed to submit the report to the California Office of Planning and Research, the California Department of Housing and Community Development, and the San Diego Association of Governments. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 241h day of March 2020, by the following vote, to wit: AYES: NAYS: ABSENT: Hall, Blackburn, Bhat-Patel, Schumacher None None :., BARBARA ENGLESON, City Clerk (SEAL) March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 3 of 33 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Reporting Year 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) Project Identifier 1 Prior AP!< CurrentAPN Street Address Project Name• Summarv Row: Start Data Entrv Below 2072304600 4816 Kelly Dr HOOVER LEE 2061601300 4269 Hillside Dr MURRAY RESIDENCES 2155022000 1730 Cereus Ct LEWISTON ADU 2042320400 3677 Garfield ST HERNANDEZ RESIDENCE 2041502600 34 72 Garfield St GARFIELD STREET ADU 2061400800 1145 Harborview Ln HALLBERG ADU 2033020400 786 Grand Ave GRAND JEFFERSON 155221 1200 570 Laguna Dr LAGUNA DRIVE SUBDIVISION 2120405600 1205 Aviara PkWY AVIARA APARTMENTS 2042100300 3535 Harding St HARDING & PALM TOWNHOUSE 2040310100 Madison St MADISON FIVE 2153702800 El Fuerte St EL FUERTE VIEW 2033031600 2975 JEFFERSON 2975 JEFFERSON ST STREET 2040911300 540 Chestnut 540 CHESTNUT SFR + ADU 2161701400 Viejo Castilla Wy RESORT VIEW APARTMENTS 1560511200 2297 HIGHLAND DR 2154202200 2719 OBELISCO CT 2073503300 4810 REFUGIO AVE 100 1671220600 3510 CHARTER OAK DR 2051203600 1389 BASSWOOD AVE 1675632400 4373 TUOLUMNE PL 1562313600 1330 KNOWLES FERRI RESIDENCE AVE 1672803400 3744 LONGVIEW DR 150 2231405100 3213 LA COSTA AVE 2061924900 4575 PARK DR 2052204100 3516 HIGHLAND DR 2042702800 333 REDWOOD AVE ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 §6202) Table A Note: "+" indicates an optional field Cells in grey contain auto-calculation formulas Housing Development Applications Submitted Date Unit Types Application Proposed Units -Affordability by Household Incomes Submitted 2 3 4 5 Tenure Date Very Low-Very Low-Low-Income Low-Income Moderate-Moderate-Above Local Jurisdiction Unit Category Income Non Income Non (SFA,SFD,2 to Application Income Deed Deed Non Deed Income Deed Moderate-Tracking 10• R=Renter Deed Deed 4,5+,ADU,MH) O=Owner Submitted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Income 0 0 86 1 0 31 318 ADU Renter 1 CDP 2019-0014 6/3/2019 CDP 2019-0028 SFD Owner 12/18/2019 3 ADU Renter 10/30/2019 1 CDP 2019-0026 CDP 2019-0023 SFD Owner 12/18/2019 1 CDP 2019-0022 ADU Renter 1 8/28/2019 CDP 2019-0031 ADU Renter 11/20/2019 1 CT 2018-0008 5+ Owner 6 7/3/2019 CT 2018-0006 SFD Owner 1/7/2019 13 EIR 2018-0001 5+ Renter 9/30/2019 82 247 CT 2017-0008 SFA Owner 1/11/2019 6 CT 2019-0002 5+ Owner 5/10/2019 5 MS 2018-0010 SFD Owner 11/4/2019 4 RP 2018-0009 2/4/2020 Renter 2/14/2019 1 V 2018-0010 SFD Owner 11/7/2019 1 1 SOP 2018-0022 5+ Renter 11/21 /2019 4 22 CBR2019-0898 ADU Renter 4/17/2019 1 CBR2019-1032 ADU Renter 4/30/2019 1 CBR2019-0633 ADU Renter 3/20/2019 1 CBR2019-0016 ADU Renter 1/4/2019 1 CBR2019-0046 ADU Renter 1/8/2019 1 CBR2019-2191 ADU Renter 8/15/2019 1 CBR2019-0409 SFD Owner 2/21/201 9 1 CBR201 9-2407 ADU Renter 9/3/2019 1 CBR2019-0499 ADU Renter 3/5/2019 1 CBR2019-1257 SFD Owner 5/20/2019 1 CBR201 9-2740 ADU Renter 10/1/2019 1 CBR2019-2950 ADU Renter 10/18/2019 1 Attachment A Total Total Approved Disapproved Units by Units by Streamlining Notes Project Project 6 7 8 9 10 Total Was APPLICATION Total Ql§AfPRQVEO SUBMITTED Total PRQPOSED UnitS by Project Pursuant to GC APPRQVED Notes• Units by Project (Auto-calculated 65913.4(b)? Units by project Can Be (S835 Overwritten) Streamlining) 436 30 0 0 1 1 0 No 3 0 No Under review 1 1 0 No 1 0 No Under review 1 1 0 No 1 0 No Under review 6 0 No Under review 13 0 No Under review 329 0 No Under review 6 6 0 No 5 5 0 No 4 0 No Under review 1 1 0 No 2 2 0 No 26 0 No Under review 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No 1 1 0 No March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 4 of 33 Total was ADDI 1r.1.noN Unit Category Tenure Date Very Low-Very Low-Low-Income Low-Income Moderate-Moderate-Above Total Dlii!APPROV§Q !21.!iMII!l;D Local Jurisdiction Income Non Income Non Total PRQ~§D Units by Project Pursuant to GC PrlorAPN• CurrentAPN Street Address Project Name• Tracking 10• (SFA,SFD,2 to R=Renter Application Income Deed Deed Deed Non Deed Income Deed Deed Moderate-Units by Project APPROVED (Auto-calculated 65913.4(b)? Notes• 4,5+,ADU,MH) O=Owner Submitted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Income Units by project Can Be (S836 Overwritten) Streamlinlng) 2162403300 2405 TORREJON CBR2019-3028 ADU Renter 10/25/2019 1 1 1 0 No PL 2232500100 7553 ESFERA ST CBR2019-1049 ADU Renter 5/1/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2081603200 5067 ASHBERRY CBR2019-2622 ADU Renter 9/19/2019 1 1 0 No RD Under review 2071202600 3872 VALLEY ST CBRA2019-0038 ADU Renter 1/30/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2156102900 7129 AVIARA DR SEHGAL RESIDENCE CBR2019-0014 SFD Owner 1/3/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2054303200 3832 MARGARET CBR2019-3427 ADU Renter 12/4/2019 1 1 0 No WAY Under review 2644812100 3561 CORTE CBR2019-1352 ADU Renter 5/30/2019 1 1 0 No ESPERANZA Under review 2154600500 2700 ARGONAUTA 2700 ARGONAUTA CBR2019-0988 SFD Owner 4/25/2019 1 1 0 No ST RESIDENCE Under review 2050201800 1389 OAK AVE OAK AVENUE PARCEL CBR2019-2901 SFD Owner 10/15/2019 1 1 0 No MAP Under review 1562317400 1463 BUENA CBRA2019-0332 SFD Owner 11/15/2019 1 1 0 No VISTA WAY Under review 2050511100 3293 HIGHLAND CBRA2019-0275 ADU Renter 9/18/2019 1 1 0 No DR Under review 2050809700 3217 MAEZEL LN CBR2019-3686 ADU Renter 12/30/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2225923900 2813 VIA CBR2019-2012 ADU Renter 7/31/2019 1 1 0 No CONQUISTADOR Under review 2053303500 2073 LEE CT CBR2019-1436 ADU Renter 6/6/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2050805400 1892 BASSWOOD CBRA2019-0343 ADU Renter 12/2/2019 1 1 0 No AVE Under review 1562317400 1465 BUENA CBRA2019-0333 ADU Renter 11/15/2019 1 1 0 No VISTA WAY Under review 2050522500 1310 BASSWOOD CBR2019-2961 ADU Renter 10/21/2019 1 1 0 No AVE Under review 2156901500 1305 CASSINS ST CBR2019-0577 ADU Renter 3/14/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2050205700 1286PINEAVE 1284 PINE AV LOT CBRA2019-0141 ADU Renter 517/2019 1 1 0 No SPLIT Under review 2152311200 7287 ALMADEN LN CBR2019-3120 SFD Owner 11/4/2019 1 1 0 No Under review 2154600600 2670 ARGONAUTA ABEDI MOGHADDAM CBR2019-1401 SFD Owner 6/4/2019 1 1 0 No ST FAMILY RESIDENCE Under review 1551603700 1112 BUENA CB R2019-3369 ADU Renter 11/26/2019 1 1 0 No VISTA WAY Under review 2050205700 1284 PINE AVE 1284 PINE AV LOT CBRA2019-0140 SFD Owner 5/7/2019 1 1 0 No SPLIT Under review 2051900900 1082 PALM AVE THIRKELL ADU CBR2019-1940 ADU Renter 7/23/2019 1 1 0 No Under review March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 5 of 33 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Reporting Year 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) Project Identifier 1 Local PriorAPN• CurrentAPN Street Address Project Name• Jurisdiction Tracking ID+ Summary Row: Start Data Entry Below 2033031600 2975 2975 RP2018-0009 JEFFERSON ST JEFFERSON ST 2033510300 3050 MADISON 4 PLUS 1 RP150016 ST LUXURY LIVING 2040911300 540 CHESTNUT 540 CHESTNUT V2018-0010 SFR+ADU 2041502600 3472 GARFIELD GARFIELD ST CDP2019-0022 ST ADU HARDING AND 2042100300 3535 HARDING PALM CT2017-0008 ST TOWNHOUSE PROJECT 2070221100 4246 HILLSIDE HILLSIDE DRIVE CDP2019-0002 DR RESIDENTIAL 2155022000 1730 CEREUS LEWISTON ADU COP2D19-0026 CT 2040310100 MADISON ST MADISON FIVE CT2019-0002 2052102200 1196 NAYLOR MS150001 MAGNOLIA AV JORDANTPM 2050201800 1391 OAK AVE OAK AVENUE MS201S-0002 PARCEL MAP 2122720100 Twain Ave. OCEAN VIEW GPA15002 POINT 2031013500 2569 ROOSEVELT CT2017-0006 ROOSEVELT ST TOWNHOMES 2070640200 3960 SLOWIK ADU CDP2017-0064 SUNNYHILL DR 2031012000 2646 ST ATE ST THE SEAGLASS CT2018-0004 ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 ~6202) TableA2 Annual Building Activitv Report Summarv -New Construction, Entitled, Permits and Comoleted Units Unit Types Affordability by Household Incomes -Completed Entitlement 2 3 4 Tenure Unft Category Very Low-Very Low-Low-Income Moderate-Moderate-Low-Income (SFA,SF0,2 to R=Renter Income Deed Income Non Deed Restricted Non Deed Income Deed Income Non 4,5+,AOU,MH) Restricted Deed Restricted Restricted Restricted Deed Restricted O=Owner 0 0 0 0 0 5 2/4/2020 Renter 2/4/2020 Renter SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 SFA Owner SFD Owner 1 AD~ Renter 1 5+ Owner SFD Owner SFD Owner SFD Owner SFA Owner ADU Renter 1 SFA Owner Note: "+" indicates an optional field Cells in grey contain auto-calculation formulas Housing with Financial Housing without Term of Streamlining Infill Assistance and/or Deed Financial Assistance Affordability or Demolished/Destroyed Units Notes Deed Restrictions or Deed Restrictions Restriction 5 6 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Was Project For units affordable without financial Term of How many of the ~ Assistance assistance or deed Affordability or Above Entitlement using GC Programs for Deed Resbiction Number of DemolishedtDest # of Units issued units were Infill Units? restrictions, explain how Deed Restriction OemoJiahed or Moderate-Date Aeeroved Extremely Low 65913.4(b)? YIN• Each Type tho locality determined tho (years) [If affordable Demolf1hed1Dest Destroyed Units+ royedUnils Notes• Income Entitlements (S835 Development (see instructions) rayed Untts• Owner or Rentet Income?• units were affordable In peq,etulty enter streamlining) (HO Instructions) (see instructions) 1000)' YIN 41 46 0 0 5 0 0 1 4/5/2019 N 1 2 1/10/2019 2 N 2 Demolished 1 12/23/2019 2 N Developer survey 9/12/2019 1 N Developer sU1vey 5 9/4/2019 N 1 Demolished 5 1 12/23/2019 N Developer survey 2 11/13/2019 1 N Developer survey 5 7/18/2019 5 N 1 7/25/2019 1 N 1 8/5/2019 1 N 13 8/20/2019 13 N 4 4/3/2019 N 1 Demolished 4 2/6/2019 1 N Developer survey 7 4/17/2019 7 N 1 Demolished March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 6 of 33 --- --...Ill ~ Ill - - ....-Yl7lll"JIJV"1Ul"71~ WasPro)eol A1'si&tllnCII without financial Term of ,.._ Very Low-Moderate-HO}Ymanyol ~ Pn>gr-fOr Dead asslmnoe or dee!I Afforrlab!Uty or Number of l)emOllsl,etl/0 l.!>l>al u111u;a11190,y Very Low-Income Non Low-Income Low-Income Moderate-Income Non Above Building # of Units the units we"' using GC 1111111 Units? Each Rnlriotioll n1111riclll>ns, e,cplaln Deed Restriclion Qamollslle<II Dalll~ e&tropad PtlorAPN• CUn'entAPN Strut Address ProjecJ Nllnie• .lur"ISdlctien (8FA.Sl'D~ lo ~ Income Deed Deed Deed Non Deed Income Deed Deed Moderate-Permits Date Issued Building EKtremely Low 65913.4(1>!? YIN' Dewlopment fype howthdo!llllit,v (rears) (If Oestroyecl or Dai>tfo,-.1 1.11111s Owner NDm• TrllGkiJll'tD' 4.5~,IIDU,MH) Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Income Issued Permits (BB3J (See decermlneJI the unilll affordable in uni.• O,,Own11r Restricted Restricted tnceme?' swamllnlngj {see IIISWUDtlonsj wet<>affGAl!lble f"'rpelUrtyel)ler Units' Gtftelllar' YIN inSb'uctionsj (see lpstructions) 1000,• SHERIDAN PLACE CBRA2017-2060424700 3913 SHERIDAN PL SINGLE FAMILY SFD Owner 1 3/2212019 1 N RESIDENCE 0152 2042804505 430 TAMARACK AVE TAMARACK BEACH CBRA2018-SFD HOMES 0244 Owner 3 4/15/2019 3 N 2 Demolished 2070731000 4054 SKYLINE RD THOMPSON CBR2018-3474 ADU Renter 1 8/28/2019 1 N Developer survey GEESBREGHT ADU 2040701100 3355 TYLER ST TYLER STREET CBRA2019-SFA RESIDENCES 0053 Owner 6 9/12/2019 6 N 2 Demolished 2132621858 6066 COLT PL 105 UPTOWN BRESSI CBRA2019-SFA Owner 17 62 4/23/2019 79 N INC RANCH 0120 2041321709 350 WALNUT AVE WALNUT BEACH CBRA2018-SFA HOMES 0220 Owner 8 9/18/2019 8 N 2 Demolished 1562205900 1760 YADA PL YADA FARM CBRA2018-SFD Owner 11 6/27/2019 11 N 0055 1562200100 1732 YADA PL YADAFARM CBRA2018-ADU 0077 Renter 2 4/17/2019 2 N INC March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 8 of 33 Jurisdiction epo mg Year PriorAPN' Carlsbad 2019 CurrentAPN Summarv Row: Start Data En 1562310100 1561522900 1561522900 2050804700 2146312500 2042703200 2231700700 1670531600 1562314500 1673920300 2052209700 2073503300 2152205600 2232840500 1560511200 1560320800 2054401900 1671220600 2070532400 2152205900 2041111100 1670406134 2042310600 1675314500 1675315200 1670404524 1670406221 1670404600 2033032101 2042341500 1561426000 2061804100 2071206600 2232500700 2060423500 2231305000 2042804401 1563512500 1563512500 2070640300 2052208600 2030230400 2030230400 2081951100 2081951000 2150431600 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) Project Identifier 1 Street Address Project Name+ rv Below 1289 BUENA VISTA WAY 2605 CREST DR 2607 CREST DR 3237 MAEZEL LN 6760 STRAWBERRY PL 392 TAMARACK AVE 7722 F AROL PL 102 3357 RIDGECREST DR 2552 GREGORY DR 2726 NAPLES CT 102 3687 VALLEY ST 4810 REFUGIO AVE 100 2155ALGARD 7437 TRIGO LN 2297 HIGHLAND DR 2362 CIPRIANO LN 1642 BRADY CIR 3510 CHARTER OAK DR 3910 MONROE ST 2139ALGA RD 2139 ALGA ROAD 906 PINE AVE 906 PINE AVENUE 3125 SALINA RD ACACIA AT THE PRESERVES 163 ACACIA AV ACACIA ESTATES 3108AFTON WAY AFTON WAY 3110AFTONWAY AFTON WAY 3394 CAMPO AZUL AGAVE AT THE CT PRESERVE 3281 VESTRA WAY BLUE SAGE CONDOS 3066 VILLETAAVE CYPRESS AT THE PRESERVE 741 GRAND AVE GRAND MADISON THE 157 CHESTNUT AVE KIM RESIDENCE REMODEL 1610 BUENA VISTA KING PROPERTY WAY 4422 ADAMS ST KLOVANISH RESIDENCE 3987 PARK KOBAYASHI SOU 3325 VENADO ST LO RESIDENCE LONG PLACE 3998 LONG PL ACCESSORY DWELLING UNIT 3111 CADENCIA ST LOT 213 LA COSTA AVE 707 MAGNOLIA AVE MAGNOLIA TOWNHOMES 1228 LANAI CT MILES PACIFIC SUBDIVISION 1230 LANAI CT MILES PACIFIC SUBDIVISION 4012 SUNNYHILL DR NAUGLER ADU 1655 CHESTNUT AVE OZAKI PARCEL 2 250 NORMANDY LN RANCHO PARADISO 252 NORMANDY LN RANCHO PARADISO 2600 GAGE DR ROBERTSON RANCH WEST VILLAGE 2514 WEST RANCH ROBERTSON RANCH ST WEST VILLAGE 6659 PEREGRINE PL SEASCAPE Local Jurisdiction Traclclng w• CBR2017-1350 CBRA2017- 0123 CBRA2017- 0124 CBR2018-2110 CB163973 CBR2018-2113 CBR2018-0407 CBRA2018- 0145 CBR2018-0526 CBR2018-0785 CBRA2018- 0023 CBR2019-0633 CBR2018-3106 CBRA2018- 0209 CBR2019-0898 CBR2018-2692 CBR2018-2044 CBR2019-0016 CBR2018-1656 CBR2017-1415 CBR2016-0348 CBRA2017- 0337 CB161771 CBRA2017- 0070 CBRA2017- 0249 CBRA2017- 0231 CBRA2017- 0343 CBRA2017- 0139 CBRA2017- 0322 CBRA2018- 0042 CBR2017-2481 CBR2017-1231 CBR2017-0589 CB161829 CBR2018-1561 CBR2018-0464 CB162031 CB152653 CB160932 CBR2018-1869 CB163118 CBRA2017- 0018 CBRA2017- 0016 CB153566 CB160131 CB160500 ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation /CCR Title 25 &62021 Table A2 Annual Building Activity Report Summary -New Construction, Entitled, Permits and Completed Units Unit Types Affordability by Household Incomes -Certificates of Occupancy 2 3 10 Tenure Very Low-Moderate-Urlll category Very Low-Low-Income Low-Income Moderate-Above Income Non Income Non (SFA,SFD,2 to R=Renter Income Deed Deed Deed Non Deed Income Deed Deed Moderate- 4,5+.ADU,MH) O=Owner Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Income 0 0 111 0 56 22 359 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 2/4/2020 Renter 2 SFA Owner 12 2/4/2020 Owner 1 SFD Owner 7 ADU Renter 1 SFA Owner 22 SFA Owner 19 SFD Owner 17 5+ owner 11 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 SFA Owner 7 SFD owner 1 ADU Renter 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 ADU Renter 1 SFD Owner 1 5+ Renter 101 5+ Renter 56 207 SFD Owner 5 Note: "+" indicates an optional field Cells in grey contain auto-calculation formulas Housing with Financial Housing without Term of Affordability Streamlining Infill Assistance and/or Deed Financial Assistance or or Deed Demolished/Destroyed Units Notes Restrictions Deed Restrictions Restriction 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Certificates of # of Units was Project Assistance For uni!$ affordable without Term of Occupancy or issued How many of ~ Programs for Deed llnanchll assistance or deed Affordability or Number of DemoUshed/D other forms of uslngGC Restriction restllctions, explain how the Deed Restriction DemoHohed Certificates of tlleunltswont Infill Units? Each Demolished/ estroyed readiness Occupancy or Extremely Low 85913.4(1>)? YIN• Development Type locality determined the units (yeers) or Destroyed or Destroyed Units OWner Notes• {see other forms of Income?" (8835 (see (see were affordable affordable In Units• Units• or Renter• instructions) Streamlining) instructions) (see Instructions) pe,petuity enter ~ readiness YIN Instructions) 1000)' 548 0 0 6 0 0 4/23/2019 1 N Developer survey 3/6/2019 1 N 3/6/2019 1 N Developer survey 2/14/2019 1 N Developer survey 1/30/2019 1 N 4/1/2019 1 N Developer survey 1/31/2019 1 N Developer survey 10/22/2019 1 N Developer survey 7/30/2019 1 N Developer survey 4/23/2019 1 N Developer survey 2/1/2019 1 N 8/9/2019 1 N Developer survey 10/17/2019 1 N Developer survey 10/29/2019 1 N Developer survey 11/18/2019 1 N Developer survey 11/18/2019 1 N Developer survey 8/12/2019 1 N Developer survey 10/17/2019 1 N Developer survey 3/19/2019 1 N Developer survey 3/11/2019 1 N 12/30/2019 2 N 2 Demolished 11/20/2019 12 N 8/16/2019 1 N 2 Demolished 4/22/2019 7 N 1 Demolished 4/23/2019 1 N INC 4/8/2019 22 N 1117/2019 19 N 817/2019 17 N 6/3/2019 11 N 4/4/2019 1 N Developer survey 9/18/2019 1 N 12/17/2019 1 N 3/5/2019 1 N Developer survey 7/16/2019 1 N 5/28/2019 1 N Developer survey 7/19/2019 1 N 12/9/2019 7 N 1 Demolished 317/2019 1 N 317/2019 1 N INC 8/29/2019 1 N Developer survey 8/12/2019 1 N 10/23/2019 1 N Developer survey 10/23/2019 1 N 3/25/2019 101 N INC 1/2/2019 263 N INC 3/18/2019 5 N March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 9 of 33 Certificates of # of Units Was Project Assistance For units affordable Without Term of Tenure Very LOW• Moderate• Occupancy or issued How many of aeeBm!s!t Programs for Deed financial assistance or deed Atronlablllty or Number of Demolished/D Local Unit Category Very LOW· Low.Jncome Low-Income Moderate-Above other forms of uslngGC Restriction restrlcUons, explain how tbe Deed Restriction Demollshed Income Non Income Non Certificates of the units were Infill Units? Each Demolished/ estroyed PrlorAPN• CummtAPN Street AdclTess Project Name• Jurisdiction (SFA,SFD,2 lo Income Deed Deed Non Deed Income Deed Moderate-readiness 68913.,i(b)? Type locality determined the units {years) (If or Destroyed Notes• R=Renter Deed Deed Occupancy or Extremely Low YM Development Destroyed Units Owner Tracking 10• 4,5+ ,ADU,MH) O-OWner Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted Income (see other forms of Income?• (SB35 (see , ... were-able affordabl8 In Units• Units• or Renter" Instructions} Streamlining) Instructions) {see instructions) pe,pewfty enter ~ readiness YIN instructions) 1000). 2150432200 6684 PEREGRINE PL SEASCAPE CB160515 ADU Renter 1 3/5/2019 1 N INC 2081910100 2558 GLASGOW DR THE BLUFFS CBRA2016-SFD Owner 6/24/2019 1 N 0036 1 2081922100 4844 NELSON CT THE RIDGE CBRA2017-SFD Owner 4/25/2019 7 N 0252 7 2081934300 4734 CHASE CT THE TERRACES CBRA2018-SFD Owner 1/30/2019 7 N 0062 7 2081915100 2519 WELLSPRING THE VISTAS CBRA2017-SFD Owner 9/17/2019 1 N ST 0272 1 21326=15 6082 COLT PL 104 UPTOWN BRESSI CBRA2019-SFA Owner 12/16/2019 22 N INC RANCH 0113 5 17 2072301900 4812 KELLY DR WHITE ADU CBR2018-0119 ADU Renter 1 3/26/2019 1 N Developer survey 1562206100 1710YADAPL YADAFARM CBRA2018-SFD Owner 11/6/2019 5 N 0057 5 1562200100 1732YADA PL YADAFARM CBRA2018-ADU Renter 11/5/2019 2 N INC 0077 2 March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 10 of 33 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Reporting Year 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) 1 RHNA Allocation Income Level by Income Level 2013 I Deed Restricted 912 35 Very Low Non-Deed Restricted Deed Restricted 693 27 Low Non-Deed Restricted 2 Deed Restricted 1062 Moderate Non-Deed Restricted 104 Above Moderate 2332 1136 Total RHNA 4999 Total Units 1304 ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 §6202) Table B This table is auto-populated once you enter your jurisdiction name and current year data. Past year information comes from previous APRs. Please contact HCD if your data is different than the material supplied here Regional Housing Needs Allocation Progress Permitted Units Issued by Affordability 2 3 Total Units to 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Date (all years) 7 44 2 6 9 163 8 4 47 272 1 2 1 2 56 316 13 20 18 18 28 59 235 200 439 624 210 212 3056 255 229 683 652 243 322 3688 Note: units serving extremely low-income households are included in the very low-income permitted units totals Cells in grey contain auto-calculation formulas 4 Total Remaining RHNA by Income Level 868 421 746 0 2035 I March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 11 of 33 Jurisdiction Reporting Year APN Carlsbad 2019 en:1 - uec. 31) Project Identifier 1 Street Address Project Name .. Summary Row: Start Data Entry Below Date of Rezone 2 Local Jurisdiction Date of Rezone T~eklnnlO• ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 §6202) Table C Sites Identified or Rezoned to Accommodate Shortfall Housina Need RHNA Shortfall by Household Income Category Type of shortfall 3 4 5 . 6 Very LOW• Moderate-I Above Type of Parcel Size General Plan Low-Income Moderate-Shortfall Income Income Income (Acrest Designation 0 0 0 0 .. '· ~-~~ ,,. .. , .. ., . .. , •· •.· •, .•. ~ •• °: • • ~. ;-_t;:, Sites Description 7 8 9 10 11 Minimum Maximum Realistic Vacant#Nonvac Description of Zoning Density Density ADowed a......., Capacity ant Existing Uses 0 March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 12 of 33 Jurisdiction Renortlna Year ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 ~6202' Carlsbad 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31 l I Table D Program Implementation Status pursuant to GC Section 65583 .................... -Rlport Describe pn,giw of al piog1•111 lncludq local elorls to nimove govemmeial COi ..... to .. melnlll•a. lmpnMlmenl. and dallelapmant of hauling• ldlnllllad In a. hoUllng---. 1 I s 4 ..... ., Program ~ llMfl ........ .......,,,..... .............. The city will continue to discourage and/or restrict condominium conversions when such conversions would reduce the number of low or 1.1 -Condominium moderate income housing units available throughout the city. All The city considers condominium conversions on a case by case basis. In 2019, there Conversion condominium conversions are subject to the city's lnclusionary Housing 0 were no condominium conversions approved. Ordinance; the in-lieu fees or actual affordable units required by the ordinance would be used to mitigate the loss of affordable rental units from the city's housing stock. The city will continue to implement the city's Residential Mobile Home 1 .2 -Mobile Home Park zoning ordinance (Municipal Code Chapter 21.37) that sets 0 The city continues to implement the mobile home zoning ordinance. No applications for Park Preservation conditions on changes of use or conversions of mobile home parks, change in use or conversion of a mobile home park were received in 2019. consistent with Government Code Section 66427 .5. The city will also assist lower income tenants of mobile home parks to research the financial feasibility of purchasing their mobile home parks so as to maintain the rents at levels affordable to its tenants. 1.3 -Acquisition/ The city will continue to provide assistance on a case-by-case basis to Requests for acquisition/rehabilitation of rental properties are considered on a case by Rehabilitation of preserve the existing stock of lower and moderate income rental 0 Rental Housing housing, including: case basis. Provide loans, grants, and/or rebates to owners of rental In Spring of 2019, the City Council approved the CDBG Annual Action Plan to authorize properties to make needed repairs and rehabilitation. the purchase of existing affordable housing units in Carlsbad. In 2019, the city purchased three units with these funds in the Mulberry community of Bressi Ranch. As financially feasible, acquire and rehabilitate rental housing that is substandard, deteriorating or in danger of being demolished. Set-aside at least 20 percent of the rehabilitated units for extremely-and/or very low income households. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 13 of 33 ............... OIIIN•• ,,..,._ .. tf.E ..... .......................... I As appropriate and determined by City Council, provide deferral or subsidy of planning and building fees, and priority processing. Priority will be given to repair and rehabilitation of housing identified by the city's Building Division as being substandard or deteriorating, and which houses lower income ' and in some cases moderate income households. As the housing stock ages, the need for rehabilitation assistance may increase. The city will provide assistance to homeowners to rehabilitate deteriorating housing. Eligible activities under this program include 1.4 -Rehabilitation of such things as repairing faulty plumbing and electrical systems, The city has implemented a Minor Home Repair Grant Program for low-income owner- Owner-Occupied replacing broken windows, repairing termite and dry-rot damage, and 0 occupied properties that provides loans of up to $5,000, which are forgiven after five Housing installing home weatherization improvements. Assistance may include years. In 2019, the city assisted one household. financial incentives in the form of low interest and deferred payment loans, and rebates. Households targeted for assistance include lower- income and special needs (disabled, large, and senior) households. One project within the city-Santa Fe Ranch Apartments-may be considered as at risk if the owner pays off bonds early. While this is unlikely since the current income at affordable levels is not substantially 1.5 -Preservation of lower than the potential income at market rates, the city will nonetheless In 2016, the property owners of the Santa Fe Ranch Apartments paid off the bonds, At-Risk Housing monitor its status. Through monitoring, the city will ensure tenants C removing the affordability provisions. Given that there are no more ·at risk" housing receive proper notification of any changes. The city will also contact units in the city, this program is considered to be completed. nonprofit housing developers to solicit interest in acquiring and managing the property in the event this or any similar project becomes at risk of converting to market rate. The city will continue to monitor the absorption of residential acreage in The city reviews residential development applications for compliance with meeting the 2.1 -Adequate Sites all densities and, if needed, recommend the creation of additional minimum densities on which the city relies to meet its share of regional housing needs. to Accommodate the residential acreage at densities sufficient to meet the city's housing 0 Consistent with state law and the city's land use policies, the city shall not approve RHNA need for current and future residents. Any such actions shall be applications below the minimum densities established in the Housing Element unless it undertaken only where consistent with the Growth Management Plan. makes the following findings: March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 14 of 33 ... of~ Ollf■cllwe 1111■ .... ln H.E ............................... l The analysis in Section 10.3 (Resources Available) identifies examples a. The reduction is consistent with the adopted general plan, including the housing of how housing has been built on very small sites, such as in the Village element. and Barrio. However, to expand opportunities for additional affordable housing, the city will encourage the consolidation of small parcels in b. The remaining sites identified in the housing element are adequate to order to facilitate larger-scale developments that are compatible with accommodate the city's share of the regional housing need pursuant to existing neighborhoods. Specifically, the city will continue to make Government Code Section 65584. available an inventory of vacant and underutilized properties to interested developers, market infill and redevelopment opportunities The city continues to make available an inventory of vacant and underutilized throughout the city, including the Village and Barrio, and meet with properties and works with interested developers on infill and redevelopment developers to identify and discuss potential project sites. opportunities. The Planning Division, in its review of development applications, may recommend waiving or modifying certain development standards, or propose changes to the Municipal Code to encourage the development 2.2 -Flexibility in of low and moderate income housing. The city offers offsets to assist in The city considers density increases, waivers and modifications to development Development the development of affordable housing citywide. Offsets include 0 Standards concessions or assistance including, but not limited to, direct financial standards to assist in the development of affordable housing on a case by case basis. assistance, density increases, standards modifications, or any other financial, land use, or regulatory concession that would result in an identifiable cost reduction. In 2019, the following projects were reviewed or approved and included density increases and/or modifications to development standards: · The city is currently reviewing the EIR 2018-0001 -Aviara Apartments, which is proposing a density increase of 105 units above the General Plan allocation of 224 units, for a total of 329 units. The project is currently proposing 82 affordable units, which exceeds the requirements of the lnclusionary Housing ordinance. The Aviara Apartments project proposal includes a request for a modification to the following development standards: building height, fence/wall height, parking ratios, side yard setback for carport structures, and parking lot perimeter landscape buffer requirements. The city will encourage mixed-use developments that include a 2.3 -Mixed Use residential component. Major commercial centers should incorporate, 0 The city considers mixed use developments on a case by case basis. where appropriate, mixed commercial/residential uses. The following mixed-use projects were under review or approved in the Village area in 2019: RP 15-16 4 Plus 1 Luxury Living was approved, which includes four residential units and 1,105 square feet of commercial space. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 15 of 33 Nameof ......... _.. Tlmlfl•••IIIHJ! ...... of ............ , •• ... •• I SOP 2019-0015 Jefferson Street Apartments was under review, which proposes 15 residential units and 2,625 square feet of commercial space. CT 2019-0003 Carlsbad Station was under review, which proposes 79 residential unfts and 9,777 square feet of commercial space. CT 2018-0008 Grand Jefferson was under review, the city reviewed CT 2018-0008 Grand Jefferson, which proposes six residential units and 1,823 square feet of commercial space. Outside of the Village area, the following mixed-use projects were under review or approved in 2019: EIR 2017-0001 -Marja Acres was under review, which proposes 248 town homes, 46 senior affordable apartments, and 10,000 sf of commercial space and community recreation uses. EIR 2018-0004 North County Plaza was under review, +which proposes to redevelop an existing shopping center by demolishing a portion of the center (approx. 40,000 sf of commercial space) and adding 272 apartment units, resulting in a mixed use site. The city has established requirements, programs, and actions to improve household energy efficiency, promote sustainability, and lower The city continues to implement its 2015-adopted Climate Action Plan (CAP). In 2019, 2.4 -Energy utility costs. The city shall enforce state requirements for energy 0 the City Council adopted ordinances identified in the CAP to promote energy efficiency Conservation conservation, including the latest green building standards, and and renewable energy use in new residential construction and in existing development promote and participate in regional water conservation and recycling undergoing major upgrades. The ordinances become fully enforceable on Jan. 1, 2020. programs. Create a coordinated energy conservation strategy, including strategies for residential uses, as part of a citywide Climate Action Plan. In the Village, encourage energy conservation and higher density In 2018, the California Building Standards Commission approved amendments to the development by the modification of development standards (e.g. California Energy Code requiring installation of photovoltaic systems in all new low-rise parking standards, building setbacks, height, and increased density) residential construction, beginning in January 2020. Carlsbad is enforcing this new as necessary to: Energy Code requirement as of Jan. 1, 2020. -Enable developments to qualify for silver level or higher LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) In 2019, 1,279 building permits for photovoltaic panels on residential structures were Certification, or a comparable green building rating, and to maintain the financial feasibility of the development with such completed. certification. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 16 of 33 Name GI Program Ollljullwe TIIMl'I•• Ill H.E .... o1,....... .... , .......... I -Achieve densities at or above the minimum required if the applicant can provide acceptable evidence that application of the In 2019, the city adopted the 2019 California Building Codes, which incorporates the development standards precludes development at such latest energy efficiency standards as established by the CEC. densities. Facilitate resource conservation for all households by making available, through a competitive process, CDBG funds to non-profit In 2019, the city reviewed and approved several infill projects in the Village and Barrio organizations that could use such funds to replace windows, areas (see comments in Programs 2.1 through 2.3 above.) plumbing fixtures, and other physical improvements in lower-income neighborhoods, shelters, and transitional housing. Encourage infill development in urbanized areas, particularly in the Village and Barrio, through implementation of the Village Master Plan and Design Manual and the allowed density ranges in the Barrio. The city will continue to implement its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance, On Dec. 17, 2019, the City Council introduced Ordinance No. CS-368 to restore the which requires a minimum of 15 percent of all ownership and qualifying city's ability to apply inclusionary housing requirements to residential rental units. Prior to 3.1 -lnclusionary rental residential projects of seven or more units be restricted and 0 passage of AB 1505 in 2017, cities and counties were barred from imposing affordable Housing Ordinance affordable to lower income households. This program requires an housing requirements to rental projects, as a result of the appellate court decision in agreement between all residential developers subject to this Palmer/Sixth St. Properties, L. P. v. City of Los Angeles. AB 1505 revoked the Palmer inclusionary requirement and the city which stipulates: decision by allowing cities to impose affordability restriction to new rental housing again. The city continues to implement its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance. In 2019, building The number of required lower income inclusionary units; permits were issued for 47 dwelling units that were required to be affordable through lnclusionary requirements for the following projects: The designated sites for the location of the units; A phasing schedule for production of the units; and Yada Farm -one low income ADU The term of affordability for the units. Uptown Bressi Ranch -17 low income condominiums Poinsettia 61 -five low income ADUs March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 17 of 33 ..... .,.....,... OlljntM ,_,. ......... ......, ............... 111ft I For all ownership and qualifying rental projects of fewer than seven units, payment of a fee in lieu of inclusionary units is permitted. The fee is based on a detailed study that calculated the difference in cost to Magnolia Brady -one low income ADU produce a market rate rental unit versus a lower-income affordable unit. Miles Buena Vista -one low income ADU As of 2013, the in-lieu fee per market-rate dwelling unit was $4,515. Casa Aldea -20 low income senior apartments The fee amount may be modified by the City Council from time-to-time Beachwalk at Roosevelt -two low income condominiums and is collected at the time of building permit issuance for the market rate units. The city will continue to utilize inclusionary in-lieu fees collected to assist in the development of affordable units. The city will apply lnclusionary Housing Ordinance requirements to Work was completed on significant affordable housing projects that began construction rental projects if the project developer agrees by contract to limit rent as in 2016: consideration for a "direct financial contribution" or other form of assistance specified in density bonus law; or if the project is at a density Construction was completed for the 101 unit low income senior apartments (Portola that exceeds the applicable GMCP density, thus requiring the use of Senior Apartments) and 56 moderate income apartments (Montecito Apartments) in "excess dwelling units," as described in Section 10.3 (Resources Robertson Ranch West Village Master Plan. Available). In 2019, building permits were issued for the following projects that were required to purchase lnclusionary Housing credits at existing affordable apartments: EIR 15-03 Poinsettia 61 -four credits CT 2018-0001 Walnut Beach Homes -two credits CY 2017-0002 Tyler Street Residences -one credit In 2019, the in-lieu fee per market rate dwelling unit remained at $4,515, which has not changed since 1996. Pursuant to City Council Policy Statement 43, the city will continue to Through its continued implementation of the Growth Management Plan, the city tracks 3.2 -Excess Dwelling utilize "excess dwelling units," described in Section 10.3 (Resources development and the Excess Dwelling Unit Bank in its monthly Development Monitoring Available), for the purpose of enabling density transfers, density 0 Report. As of December 2019, the excess unit balance was 533 dwelling units inside Units increases/bonuses and General Plan amendments to increase allowed the Village and 425 units outside of the Village. These units are available for qualifying density. projects, which include affordable housing and density bonuses. Based on analysis conducted in Section 10.4 (Constraints and Mitigating Opportunities), the city can accommodate its 2010-2020 RHNA without the need to utilize excess dwelling units to accommodate the RHNA at each household income level. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 18 of 33 ..... ofPl'opan ~ ~11111.E -of P,..,_ II -••111111111 l Consistent with state law (Government Code sections 65913.4 and 65915), the city continues to offer residential density bonuses as a means of encouraging affordable housing development. In exchange for setting aside a portion of the development as units affordable to 3.3 -Density Bonus lower and moderate income households, the city will grant a density 0/C The city continues to make available density bonuses in compliance with state density bonus over the otherwise allowed maximum density, and up to three bonus law (SDBL). In 2019, six SDBL applications were either received or under review: financial incentives or regulatory concessions. These units must remain affordable for a period of no less than 30 years and each project must enter into an agreement with the city to be monitored by the Housing and Neighborhood Services Division for compliance. EIR 2017-0001 Marja Acres, which proposes 248 townhomes, 46 ' affordable senior apartments and 10,000 sf of commercial space. The density bonus increases with the proportion of affordable units set aside and the depth of affordability (e.g. very low income versus low income, or moderate income). The maximum density bonus a SOP 2018-0004 Romeria Pointe Apartments, which proposes 3 very developer can receive is 35 percent when a project provides 11 percent low units and 20 market rate units. of the units for very low income households, 20 percent for low income households, or 40 percent for moderate income households. EIR 2018-0004 North County Plaza, which proposes to redevelop an existing shopping center by demolishing a portion of the center (approx. 40,000 sf of commercial space) and adding 272 apartment units, resulting in a mixed use site. Financial incentives and regulatory concessions may include but are not limited to: fee waivers, reduction or waiver of development standards, in SOP 2018-0022 Resort View Apartments, which proposes 4 low kind infrastructure improvements, an additional density bonus above income units and 22 market rate units. the requirement, mixed use development, or other financial contributions. CT 2019-0003 Carlsbad Station, which proposes 12 low income units and 67 market rate units. The city is currently amending its density bonus regulations (Municipal SOP 2019-0015 Jefferson Street Apartments which proposes 3 low Code Chapter 21.86) to ensure consistency with recent changes to state density bonus law. income and 15 market rate units. The city also offers density increases through its inclusionary housing program as provided for in Municipal Code Chapter 21.85, see Program 2.2 -Flexibility in Development Standards. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 19 of 33 ...... or,-...,... 3.4 -City-Initiated Development 3.5 -Affordable Housing Incentives 3.6 -Land Banking The city, through the Housing and Neighborhood Services Division, will continue to work with private developers (both for-profit and non-profit) to create housing opportunities for low, very low and extremely low income households. The city will consider using Housing Trust Funds on a case-by-case basis to offer a number of incentives to facilitate affordable housing development. Incentives may include: Payment of public facility fees; In-kind infrastructure improvements, including but not limited to street improvements, sewer improvements, other infrastructure improvements as needed; Priority processing, including accelerated plan-check process, for projects that do not require extensive engineering or environmental review; and Discretionary consideration of density increases above the maximum permitted by the General Plan through review and approval of a site development plan (SDP). The city will continue to implement a land banking program to acquire land suitable for development of housing affordable to lower and moderate income households. The land bank may accept contributions of land in-lieu of housing production required under an inclusionary requirement, surplus land from the city or other public entities, and land otherwise acquired by the city for its housing programs. This land would be used to reduce the land costs of producing lower and moderate income housing by the city or other parties. Tlln1hnle Ill H.E 0 0 0 ..... .,,,..,.. ............. . The city's density bonus regulations (Municipal Code Chapter 21 .86) have been amended consistent with state law through 2019. These amendments had their first reading on 12/17/19 and were approved by the city council 1/28/20. Additional revisions are being prepared for consistency with state law changes through 2020. The city continues to provide information and work with developers to assist them in creating additional housing opportunities for lower income households. The city continues to offer incentives to facilitate affordable housing, including those listed in Program 2.2 above and Program 3.5. The city continues to implement a land banking program to acquire land suitable for development of housing affordable to lower and moderate income households. In 2019, there were no offers to donate land for affordable housing. I March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 20 of 33 3.7 -Housing Trust Fund 3.8 -Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers 3.9 -Mortgage Credit Certificates The city has identified a list of nonprofit developers active in the region. When a city-owned or acquired property is available, the city will solicit the participation of these nonprofits to develop affordable housing. Affordable housing funds will be made available to facilitate development and the city will assist in the entitlement process. The city will continue to maintain the Housing Trust Fund for the fiduciary administration of monies dedicated to the development, preservation and rehabilitation of affordable housing in Carlsbad. The Housing Trust Fund will be the repository of all collected in-lieu fees, impact fees, housing credits, loan repayments, and related revenues targeted for proposed housing as well as other local, state and federal funds. The city will explore additional revenue opportunities to contribute to the Housing Trust Fund, particularly, the feasibility of a housing impact fee to generate affordable rental units when affordable units are not included in a rental development. The Carlsbad Housing Authority will continue to administer the city's Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program to provide rental assistance to very low income households. The city participates in the San Diego Regional Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC) Program. By obtaining a MCC during escrow, a qualified homebuyer can qualify for an increased loan amount. The MCC entitles the homebuyer to take a federal income tax credit of 20 percent of the annual interest paid on the mortgage. This credit reduces the federal income taxes of the buyer, resulting in an increase in the buyer's net earnings. The city will continue to encourage a wide variety of senior housing opportunities, especially for lower-income seniors with special needs, through the provision of financial assistance and regulatory incentives 3.10 -Senior Housing as specified in the city's Housing for Senior Citizens Ordinance (Municipal Code Chapter 21.84). Projects assisted with these incentives will be subjected to the monitoring and reporting requirements to assure compliance with approved project conditions. 0 0 C 0 I The city continues to maintain the Housing Trust Fund, which had a total balance of approximately $17.8 million as of December 31, 2019. However, the available balance is approximately $13.6 million as the city had committed $4.25 million for the affordable Oak Veterans Housing and Harding Veterans Housing projects in 2017. In 2019, the city did not approve any requests for Housing Trust Fund money for affordable housing projects. The Housing Authority continues to operate Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program. The $6.5 million federally funded program assisted approximately 600 households in 2019. The city no longer participates in the MCC Program. The city continues to encourage senior housing opportunities through financial assistance and regulatory incentives. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 21 of 33 3.11 -Housing for Persons with Disabilities 3.12 -Housing for Large Families In addition, the city has sought and been granted California Constitution Article 34 authority by its voters to produce up to 2Q0 senior-only, low- income restricted housing units. The city would need to access its Article 34 authority only when it provides financial assistance and regulates more than 51 percent of the development. The city has an adopted ordinance to provide individuals with disabilities "reasonable accommodation" in land use, zoning and building regulations. This ordinance seeks to provide equal opportunity in the development and use of housing for people with disabilities through flexibility in regulations and the waiver of certain requirements in order to eliminate barriers to fulfilling this objective. The city will continue to evaluate the success of this measure and adjust the ordinance as needed to ensure that it is effective. Moreover, the city will seek to increase the availability of housing and supportive services to the most vulnerable population groups, including people with disabilities through state and federal funding sources, such as HUD's Section 811 program and CDBG funding. In those developments that are required to include 10 or more units affordable to lower-income households, at least 1 0 percent of the lower income units should have three or more bedrooms. This requirement does not pertain to lower-income senior housing projects. Carlsbad will continue to facilitate and assist with the acquisition, for 3.13 -Housing for the lease or sale, and development of suitable sites for emergency shelters Homeless and transitional housing for the homeless population. This facilitation and assistance will include: 0 0 0 ..... .,.....,_ .............. . In 2019, progress was made on the following senior housing projects: Casa Aldea/Cannon Road Senior Housing (MP 02-03(H)/ SOP 15-19) -the city issued building permits in 2019 and the project is curre_ntly under construction. The project consists of 98 unit senior apartments, of which 20 units will be restricted to low income residents. As part of the inclusionary requirement for the Robertson Ranch West Village Master Plan, construction was completed for the 101 unit Portola Senior Apartments. The project includes one and two bedroom units that are restricted to 70 percent of AMI, and is now open and completely leased up. The city reviewed an application for EIR 2017-0001 -Marja Acres, which proposes 46 senior affordable apartments as part of a mixed use project. The city continues to consider requests for "reasonable accommodation' in land use. zoning and building regulations on a case by case basis. One reasonable accommodation request was received in 2019. The city continues to implement this program as part of its inclusionary housing ordinance. In 2019, 13 permits were issued for three-bedroom affordable units. Solutions for Change continues to operate a 16-unit apartment complex that provides permanent affordable housing opportunities for homeless families who have graduated from the Solutions University. In 2015, the property was acquired (with financial help from the city) and families began moving into the property. Catholic Charities continues to operate the La Posada de Guadalupe emergency shelter, of which a portion of the facility (50 beds) is devoted to serving homeless men. l March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 22 of 33 3.14 -Supportive Services for Homeless and Special Needs Groups Participating in a regional or sub-regional summit(s) including decision-makers from north San Diego County jurisdictions and SAN DAG for the purposes of coordinating efforts and resources to address homelessness; Assisting local non-profits and charitable organizations in securing state and federal funding for the acquisition, construction and management of shelters; and Continuing to provide funding for local and sub-regional homeless service providers that operate temporary and emergency shelters. The city will continue to provide CDBG funds to community, social welfare, non-profit and other charitable groups that provide services for those with special needs in the north San Diego County area. Furthermore, the city will work with agencies and organizations that receive CDBG funds to offer a city referral service for homeless shelter and other supportive services. The city will continue to implement its Second Dwelling Unit Ordinance 3.15 -Alternative (Section 21 .10.015 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code) and will continue to Housing support alternative types of housing, such as hotels and managed living units to accommodate extremely-low income households. Tllawrt&..elftH.I 0 0 I The city continues to implement the Homeless Response Plan, which has established key principles and system responses that the city employs to address the community impacts of homelessness. The plan provides strategies to: 1. Prevent, reduce and manage homelessness in Carlsbad; 2. Support and build capacity within the city and community to address homelessness; 3. Encourage collaboration within the city, community partnerships and residents; and 4. Retain, protect and increase the supply of housing. In 2018, a Housing Set-Aside pilot program was launched at the city-owned Tyler Court senior affordable apartment community whereby ten (10) units were set-aside specifically for formerly homeless seniors. Staff identified and transitioned six (6) individuals into permanent housing. The pilot program was discontinued in summer 2019. As of Dec. 31 , 2019, five of those residents were still successfully housed at Tyler Court. During the 2019-2020 CDBG program year, the city allocated $74,872in funding assistance to five social service providers in North County which provide shelters and support services for the homeless community. The city continues to implement the Second Dwelling Unit Ordinance and consider alternative types of housing. In 2019, building permits were issued for 33 accessory dwelling units. The city is currently in process preparing zoning code amendments to address changes in state laws pertaining to accessory dwelling units that were signed into law in 2019 and became effective January 1, 2020 (SB 13, AB 68, AB 881, AB 670, AB 587 and AB 671). A one-year seniors home share matching program was launched in 2019. Seven residents were matched to a home provider during the year. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 23 of 33 ..... .,.....,.. OlljmM TlmaflwM In H.& ...._.,......,_llllpl1n•lll1n I The city will assure that information on the availability of assisted or 3.16 -Military and below-market housing is provided to all lower-income and special needs The city provides information on assisted and below market housing to individuals and groups. The Housing and Neighborhood Services Division will provide 0 groups needing that information. Student Referrals information to local military and student housing offices of the availability of low-income housing in Carlsbad. As a function of the building permit process, the city will monitor and record Coastal Zone housing data including, but not limited to, the following: 1. In 2019, building permits were issued for 77 dwelling units in the Coastal Zone: Four units in 2-4 unit structures 1. The number of housing units approved for construction, 16 accessory dwelling units conversion or demolition within the coastal zone after January 1, Eight single family attached dwellings 1982. 49 single family detached dwellings 2. The number of housing units for persons and families of low or 2. In 2019, building permits were issued for five accessory dwelling units that were moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and required to be affordable at the low income level through the lnclusionary Housing Safety Code, required to be provided in new housing developments Ordinance (as a part of the EIR 15-03 Poinsettia 61 project). within the coastal zone. 3.17 -Coastal 0 Housing Monitoring 3. The number of existing residential dwelling units occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income that are authorized 3. None. to be demolished or converted in the coastal zone pursuant to Section 65590 of the Government Code. 4. The number of residential dwelling units occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code that are required for replacement or authorized to be converted or demolished as 4. None. identified above. The location of the replacement units, either onsite, elsewhere within the city's coastal zone, or within three miles of the coastal zone in the city, shall be designated in the review. First, to retain the Housing Element as a viable policy document, the Planning Division will review the Housing Element annually and schedule an amendment if necessary. As required by state law, city The city will continue its annual reporting. staff will prepare and submit annual progress reports to the City Council, SANDAG, and California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 24 of 33 ...... GfProgram Olljectlve TIIMhmelnH.E ...... Gf..,...... ......... , .... 111 I Second, Senate Bill 575 requires that a jurisdiction revise its housing element every four years, unless it meets both of the following criteria: (1) the jurisdiction adopted the fourth revision of the element no later than March 31 , 201 O; and (2) the jurisdiction completed any rezoning The mid-planning period (2017-2021) Housing Element update was completed in 2017. contained in the element by June 30, 2010. While implementation of On December 20, 2016, HCD issued a letter stating that the update meets the statutory 3.18 -Housing the city's 2005-2010 Housing Element satisfied the first criterion, it did requirements of State housing element law, and the Housing Element update was Element Annual not meet the second. Although rezoning was completed before the end adopted by the City Council in March 2017. Progress Report and of the extended Housing Element period (April 30, 2013) to satisfy the Mid-Planning Period adequate sites program, it was not completed in time to meet the SB 0 Housing Element 575 requirement. Update The city will build on the annual review process to develop a mid-The city has selected a consultant for the 2021-2029 Housing Element update and kick-planning period (four-year) Housing Element update that includes the following: off meetings are scheduled for February 2020. Review program implementation and revision of programs and policies, as needed; Analysis of progress in meeting the RHNA and updates to the sites inventory as needed; Outcomes from a study session that will be held with the Planning Commission to discuss mid-period accomplishments and take public - comment on the progress of implementation. The city will invite service providers and housing developers to participate. With assistance from outside fair housing agencies, the city will continue to offer fair housing services to its residents and property owners. Services include: Distributing educational materials to property owners, apartment managers, and tenants; With the assistance of a CDBG grant, the city contracts with the Legal Aid Society of Making public announcements via different media (e.g. newspaper San Diego (LASSO), a non-profit organization dedicated to serving the needs of our 4.1 -Fair Housing ads and public service announcements at local radio and television community, to provide their services to Carlsbad residents and property owners. LAS SD Services channels); 0 serves as advocates for fair housing and mediating tenanVlandlord issues. Through the Fair Housing Initiatives Program, LASSO assists clients with potential discrimination Conducting public presentations with different community groups; claims and will provide guidance on fair housing laws. Annually, residents are invited to call LASSO at no charge and receive assistance. Monitoring and responding to complaints of discrimination (i.e. intaking, investigation of complaints, and resolution); and Referring services to appropriate agencies. March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 25 of 33 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Reporting Period 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 §6202) Table E Commercial Development Bonus Approved pursuant to GC Section 65915.7 Description of Project Identifier Units Constructed as Part of Agreement Commercial Development Bonus 1 2 3 Local Description of APN Street Address Project Name• Jurisdiction Very Low Low Moderate Above Moderate Commercial Tracking 10• Income Income Income Income Development Bon11"' Summary Row: Start Data Entry Below 0 0 0 0 Commercial Development Bonus Date Annroved 4 Commercial Development Bonus Date Annroved March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 26 of 33 NOTE: This table must only be filled out if the housing element sites inventory contains Jurisdiction Carlsbad a site which is or was owned by the reporting jurisdiction, and has been sold, leased, or Rep-0rting Period ... _______ _ 201 ?_.~-~----,~~ (J~ 1_ -Dec. 31)_ • otherwise disposed of during the reporting year. ANNUAL ELEMENT PROGRESS REPORT Housing Element Implementation (CCR Title 25 §6202) Table G Locally Owned Lands Included in the Housing Element Sites Inventory that have been sold, leased, or otherwise disposed of Project Identifier 1 APN Street Address Project Name• Local Jurisdiction Tracking Realistic Capacity Identified Entity to whom the site 10· in the Housing Element transferred Summary Row: Start Data Entry Below 4 Intended Use for Site March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 28 of 33 Jurisdiction Carlsbad Reporting Year 2019 (Jan. 1 -Dec. 31) Building Permits Issued by Affordability Summary Income Lev.el Curr«ttYear Deed Restricted 0 Very Low 2 Non-Deed Restricted Deed Restricted 47 Low Non-Deed Restricted 2 Deed Restricted 0 Moderate Non-Deed Restricted 59 Above Moderate 212 Total Units 322 Note: Units serving extremely low-income households are included in the very low- income permitted units totals Housing Appfi<:ations Summary Total Housing Applications Submitted: 51 Number of Proposed Units in All Applications Received: 436 Total Housing Units Approved: 30 Total Housing Units Disapproved: 0 Use of SB 35 Streamlining Provisions Number of Applications for Streamlining 0 Number of Streamlining Applications Approved 0 Total Developments Approved with Streamlining 0 Total Units Constructed with Streamlining 0 Unita Constructed -se 35 StreamHnina Permits Income Remaf Owrlerebif) Total Very Low 0 0 0 Low 0 0 0 Moderate 0 0 0 Above Moderate 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Cells in grey contain auto-calculation formulas March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 29 of 33 o Single Family-Attached Unit {SFA) -a one-unit structure attached to another unit by a common wall, commonly referred to as a townhouse, half-plex, or row house. The shared wall or walls extend from the foundation to the roof with adjoining units to form a property line. Each unit has individual heating and plumbing systems. o 2-, 3-, and 4-Plex Units per Structure (2-4) -a structure containing two, three, or four units and not classified as single-unit attached structure. o 5 or More Units per Structure (5+} -a structure containing five or more housing units. o Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU} -means a unit that is attached, detached or located within the living area of the existing dwelling or residential dwelling unit which provides complete independent living facilities for one or more persons. It shall include permanent provisionsfor living, sleeping, eating, cooking, and sanitation on the same parcel on which the single- family dwelling is situated pursuant to Government Code section 65852.2. An ADU also incl4des the following: an efficiency unit, as defined in Section 17958.1 of the Health and Safety Code or a manufactured home, as defined in Section 18007 of the Health and Safety Code. 4 March 24, 2020 Item #2 Page 33 of 33 Council Memorandum March 24, 2020 To: From: Via: Honorable Mayor Hall and Members of the City Council Geoff Patnoe, Assistant City Manager Scott Chadwick, City Manager {city of Carlsbad All Receive -Agenda Item # ~ For the Information of the: ~f~1;,COUNC~ Dat~CA_V_ CCC~ CM ~M ~M (3) L----' Re: Additional Materials Related to Staff Report Item No. 2 -2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report This memorandum provides recommended clarifying edits to the 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report (Agenda Item No. 2, Exhibit 1 of the staff report), and answers several questions related to the staff report Item No. 2. Staff recommended changes to Item No. 2, Exhibit!, the 2019 Housing Element Annual Progress Report Page 18, Program 3.1 -Jnclusionary Housing Ordinance. In the column "Status of Program Implementation", modify the last sentence to read: In 2019, the in-lieu fee per market rate dwelling unit remained at $4,515, which has not changed since 1996. Page 23, Program 3.13 -Housing for the Homeless. In the column "Status of Program Implementation", modify the last paragraph to read: In 2018, a Housing Set-Aside pilot program was launched at the city-owned Tyler Court senior affordable apartment community whereby ten (10) units were set-aside specifically for formerly homeless seniors. Staff identified and transitioned six (6) individuals into permanent housing. The pilot program was discontinued in summer 2019. As of Dec. 31, 2019, five of those residents were still successfully housed at Tyler Court. Questions and Answers related to Item No. 2 Question 1: Page 16, Program 2.3 -Mixed Use, and page 19, Program 3.3 -Density Bonus. What is the current status of the proposed mixed-use redevelopment of North County Plaza? Answer: The application was submitted on December 20, 2018 and remains incomplete. The project applicant is working with the wildlife agencies, Coastal Commission and the City of Carlsbad regarding compliance with required buffers from Buena Vista Creek. Resolution of the buffer requirement is needed prior to making further design changes to the proposed project. North County Plaza is located just west of the Shoppes at Carlsbad Mall (tenants include Marshalls, Olive Garden and Souplantation). Community Services Branch Community Development Department 1635 Faraday Avenue I Carlsbad, CA 92008 I 760-602-4600 t Honorable Mayor Hall and Members of the City Council March 24, 2020 Page 2 Question 2: Page 22, Program 3.10-Senior Housing. Twenty of the 98 apartments in the Casa Aldea/Cannon Road Senior Housing project will be restricted to low-income residents. For what income level will the other 78 apartments be rented? Answer: Twenty of the apartments will be rent-restricted to be affordable to low-income seniors. The remaining 78 apartments will not be restricted and may rent at market rates. Question 3: Page 25, Program 3.18-Housing Element Annual Progress Report and Mid-Planning Period Housing Element Update. Were there any significant changes to the Housing Element that resulted from the 2017 Housing Element update? Answer: The 2017 Housing Element Update was prepared by Planning Division staff and presented for public hearings and consideration by the Housing Commission, Planning Commission and City Council. The 2017 Housing Element updated information about: recent changes in housing-related laws, demographics and housing needs, a list of affordable and market rate housing constructed, under construction and in planning; updated sites inventory to confirm adequate housing capacity remained t.o meet regional housing needs (RHNA); and minor updates to Housing Element programs. There were no changes to Housing Element goals and policies, and no additional housing sites or land use changes were needed to accommodate the city's RHNA. Question 4: Page 31, Exhibit 2, Description of Terms and Methods. What discretion does the city have to determine income levels for affordable housing? Answer: The city administers several affordable housing programs authorized under federal and state laws, and local ordinance, including: the federal Section 8 Rental Assistance Program, State Density Bonus Law, and the Carlsbad lnclusionary Housing Ordinance. With one exception described below, each of these programs is required to abide by an income categories framework defined in federal and state law and is not discretionary. Income categories are defined for extremely-low, very-low, low, and moderate incomes. These categories are determined as percentages of an area's median income (AMI), which is calculated annually by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The AMI calculations vary by region throughout the nation according to formula set by federal law. For the San Diego region (including Carlsbad), the 2019 AMI for a family of four is $86,300. From this baseline median income, HUD then calculates income limits for the defined categories and adjusts for household size according to a methodology set by law. There is one exception where the city exercises discretion to determine income levels. Under the city's lnclusionary Housing Ordinance, the maximum affordable low-income rent is limited to 70 percent of AMI. HUD calculates 50 percent (very-low income) and 80 percent (low income) AMI, but not 70 percent AMI. To implement the lnclusionary Housing Ordinance, the city must determine the 70 percent income limits, and incorporate them into the HUD-required income limit schedules for all other income categories. To remain consistent with HUD's income framework, city staff calculates the household size-adjusted 70 percent income limit by the following formula: Honorable Mayor Hall and Members of the City Council March 24, 2020 Page 3 70% AMlannual = {80% AMlannuai-50% AMlannua1}*l.S, rounded to nearest $50 increment The resulting 70 percent income limits by household size are then used to determine affordable rent for the lnclusionary Housing Program. cc: Celia Brewer, City Attorney Gary Barberio, Deputy City Manager, Community Services Jeff Murphy, Community Development Director Don Neu, City Planner David de Cordova, Housing Services Manager Corey Funk, Associate Planner Sheila Cobian From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject: Attachments: Importance: Sheila Cobian Tuesday, March 24, 2020 3:40 PM 'Barbara Engleson'; Celia Brewer; Gary Barberio; Paz Gomez; Laura Rocha; Scott Chadwick; Geoff Patnoe Robin Nuschy; Mia De Marzo; Kristina Ray; Cindie McMahon; Tammy Cloud-McMinn; Andrea Dykes; Morgen Fry; Jeff Murphy; Shelby Nelson; Kaylin McCauley; David De Cordova Additional Information Relating to Item #2 -Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study 1601 Sndh -Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Report_FINAL_2-18-16.pdf High Good Afternoon Mayor & City Council Members, In response to a City Council Member request, please find attached the Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study. Thank you, Sheila Cobian, MMC City Clerk Services Manager 760-434-2917 BC: Mayor & City Council Members Confidentiality Notice: Please note that email correspondence with the City of Carlsbad, along with any attachments, may be subject to the California Public Records Act, and therefore may be subject to disclosure unless otherwise exempt. Facebook I Twitter I You Tube I Flickr I Pinterest I Enews 1 AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY Carlsbad, California Prepared for City of Carlsbad Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. February 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 4 APPENDIX I: RESIDENTIAL NEXUS ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 19 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW .................................................................................................. 20 A. Market-Rate Units and Gross Household Income ................................................................... 23 B. The IMPLAN Model .................................................................................................................. 34 C. The KMA Jobs Housing Nexus Model ...................................................................................... 38 D. Mitigation Costs ....................................................................................................................... 49 E. Total Nexus Costs ..................................................................................................................... 51 ADDENDUM: NOTES ON SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................... 54 APPENDIX II: RESIDENTIAL VALUES-MARKET AND AFFORDABLE.. ......................................... 58 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW ................................................................................................. 59 A. Market Values ......................................................................................................................... 59 B. Affordable Values .................................................................................................................... 76 C. Affordability Gaps ................................................................................................................... 80 Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS February 2016 Page 3 INTRODUCTION The Summary and Recommendations provides an overview of the analysis and a discussion of the findings of a residential nexus analysis conducted for the City of Carlsbad (City) to estimate the impact of market-rate rental housing on the need for affordable housing. As illustrated in Exhibit 1, the residential nexus analysis quantifies the linkages between new market-rate rental units and the demand for affordable housing: Exhibit 1: Nexus Analysis Concept • newly constructed units • new households • new expenditures on goods and services • new jobs, a share of which are low paying • new lower income households • new demand for affordable units ] The conclusion of the nexus analysis reflects the maximum mitigation impact fee supported to offset affordable housing demand caused by the development of market-rate rental housing. A 2009 Court of Appeal ruling stated that a City cannot impose rent control through an inclusionary requirement on new housing. (Palmer/Sixth Street Properties v. City of Los Angeles {Palmeri). Nonetheless, market-rate rental housing creates a demand for affordable housing. The purpose of the nexus study is to analyze the nexus between new market-rate rental housing development and the need for affordable housing and to calculate a nexus-based housing impact fee. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page4 The materials have been prepared by Keyser Marston Associates (KMA) for the City pursuant to a contractual agreement. The residential nexus analysis addresses market-rate rental housing developments in the City; the analysis quantifies the linkages between new market-rate rental units and the demand for affordable housing in Carlsbad. The City of Carlsbad's existing lnclusionary Housing Ordinance requires all new ownership residential projects to set aside at least 15% of units so as to be restricted in terms of occupancy and affordability to lower income households. Lower-income households include Low-income, Very low-income, and Extremely low-income households, whose gross income does not exceed 80% of Area Median Income (AMI) for San Diego County as determined annually by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (City of Carlsbad Municipal Code §21.85.020). In accordance with the Palmer ruling, the City of Carlsbad amended its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance in 2010. As a result, the City no longer applies its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance to rental developments unless the developer has received direct financial assistance or other development incentives or concessions from the City and the developer agrees by contract to limit rents for below market-rate rental units. Developers may also voluntarily agree to provide inclusionary rental units. A new fee is being considered for application to market-rate rental developments of any size, which create a need for affordable housing for low income households. The Nexus Concept The underlying nexus concept is that the newly constructed market-rate rental units represent new households in Carlsbad. These households represent new income in Carlsbad that will consume goods and services, either through purchases of goods and services or by "consuming" governmental services. New consumption translates to new jobs; a portion of the jobs are at lower compensation levels, low compensation jobs translate to lower income households that cannot afford these market-rate units in Carlsbad and therefore need affordable housing. Impact Methodology and Models Used The analysis is performed using two models. The IMP LAN model is a commercially available model developed in 1979 and refined over time to quantify the impacts of changes in a local economy, including the employment impacts of changes in personal income. The IMPLAN model is "inputted" with net new personal income in Carlsbad and moves through a series of adjustments to disposable income, a distribution of expenditures, and ultimately produces a Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 5 quantification of jobs generated by industry. The KMA jobs housing nexus model, which was developed over 20 years ago to analyze the income structure of job growth, is used to determine the household income of new employee households, identifying how many are at lower-income and housing affordability levels. Organization of this Document • Following the Summary and Recommendations is the technical nexus analysis report (Appendix I) and a detailed discussion of market-rate and affordable residential values (Appendix II). The Summary and Recommendations is not intended as a stand-alone document and should not be printed or distributed without the appendices explaining all the analyses and underlying assumptions. • Appendix I contains the full Residential Nexus Analysis report and all the tables that are a part of the analysis. • Appendix II -Residential Values -Market and Affordable is a background section that establishes the market values of various types of attached residential units or "projects" · based on surveys of new units renting in Carlsbad. This appendix also contains a discussion of affordable rent levels at various affordability levels, per the current Area Median Income (AMI), and contains a calculation of affordability gaps. This report has been prepared using the best and most recent data available. Local data and sources were used wherever possible. See Appendices I and II for more information. Analysis Summary The Prototypes Four residential rental prototypes, presented in detail in Appendix II, were identified for Carlsbad based on input from City staff. The four prototypes are summarized below: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 6 • A town home unit, built at an average density of 12 units to the acre. Includes a mix of two and three bedrooms, averaging 1,250 square feet (SF), renting for $2,360. • A garden apartment unit in a project with an average density of 20 units per acre. Includes one, two, and three bedroom units averaging 860 SF. Market rent is estimated at $1,972 per month. • A stacked flat apartment unit in a project with an average density of 30 units per acre. Includes a mix of one and two bedroom units, averaging 820 SF, renting for $1,987 per month. • Mixed-use stacked flats over ground floor retail with an average density of 28 units per acre. Includes one and two bedroom units averaging, 750 SF, and 3,000 SF of retail space on the ground floor. Average market rent is estimated at $2,091 per month for the residential component and $3.00 per SF per month triple-net (NNN) for the commercial component. Household Income From the rent level of the four prototypes, the household income of the renter is readily estimated using standard housing policy and lending standards established by local, State, and Federal affordable housing programs. Renters are assumed to spend 30% of their household income on total housing expenses. Household income for each prototype unit is estimated in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 2: Household Income Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Gross Household Income $97,000 $81,000 $82,000 $86,000 As would be expected, the higher rent units translate to higher household income. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 7 This study references "Extremely low, "Very low," "Low," and "Lower" household incomes. These terms and their descriptions are as defined in the lnclusionary Housing Ordinance, Carlsbad Municipal Code §21.85.020. Jobs Generated The next step in the nexus analysis is to adjust gross household income to disposable income, or income after State and Federal ta xes, Social Security and Medicare deductions, and personal savings. To simplify the presentation of results, the analysis is run for building modules of 100 housing units. This avoids awkward fractions, especially at the detailed level by job industry. The IMPLAN model output provides jobs by industry; the total numbers of jobs generated are shown in Exhibit 3. The geographic area of job generation is San Diego County. Exhibit 3: Jobs Generated per 100 Units Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Gross Household Income $97,000 $81,000 $82,000 $86,000 Income Available for Household $66,000 $55,000 $55,000 $58,000 Expenditures Total Jobs Generated, 100 units 50.3 42.5 42.5 44.9 The IMP LAN model quantifies jobs generated at establishments that serve new residents directly (i.e. supermarkets, banks, or schools), jobs generated by increased demand at firms which service or supply these establishments (wholesalers, janitorial contractors, accounting firms, or any jobs down the service/supply chain from direct jobs), and jobs generated when the new employees spend their wages in the local economy and generate additional jobs. Compensation Levels of Jobs and Household Income The output of the IMPLAN model -the numbers of jobs by industry -are then "input" into the KMA jobs housing nexu s analysis model to quantify the compensation level of new jobs and the income of the worker households. The KMA model sorts the jobs by industry into jobs by occupation, based on national data, and then attaches wage distribution data to the occupations, using recent San Diego County data from the California Employment Development Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 8 Department (EDD). The KMA model also converts the number of employees to the number of employee households, recognizing that there is, on average, more than one worker per household, and thus the number of housing units in demand for new workers is reduced. As shown in Exhibit 4, the output of the model is the number of new worker households by income level expressed in relation to AMI attributable to the new market-rate rental units and new households in Carlsbad. Exhibit 4: New Worker Households by Income Level per 100 Marl<et-Rate Units Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Very low Up to 50% AMI 9.2 7.8 7.8 8.2 Low Greater than 50% but 8.1 not exceeding 80% AMI 6.9 6.9 · 7.2 Total, Not exceeding 80% AMI 17.3 14.6 14.6 15.4 Greater than 80% AMI 11.0 9.3 9.3 9.9 Total, New Households 28.4 24.0 24.0 25.3 Affordable Units Required to Mitigate Impact of Market-Rate Rental Housing Some developers may choose to mitigate the impact of their developments by providing affordable rental housing rather than paying a fee. The analysis findings identify how many lower income households are generated for every 100 market-rate rental units. As shown in Exhibit 5, these findings are adjusted to percentages to show the percentages of affordable rental housing needed to mitigate the impact of market-rate development. The percentages are calculated including both market-rate and affordable rental units (for example, 25 affordable units per 100 market-rate rental units translates to 125 total rental units; 25 affordable units out of 125 units eqtJals 20%). Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 9 Exhibit 5: Affordable Units Required to Mitigate Rental Housing Development Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Very low Upto 50% AMI 8.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.6% Low Greater than 50% but 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 5.8% not exceeding 80% AMI Lower Not exceeding 80% AMI 14.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.4% The conclusion of the analysis is that a market-rate rental development would need to provide 12.8% to 14.8%1 of units affordable to lower-income households to mitigate the development's impact. Fee Levels Supported by the Nexus Analysis The last step in the analysis puts a dollar amount on the cost of mitigating the affordable housing impacts. The conclusions of the nexus analysis, expressed as the number of worker households by income affordability category, are linked to the cost of delivering housing to the households in need. The impact fee revenues could be used by the City to assist in producing rental units to mitigate the impacts of new market-rate rental units. KMA developed an affordable unit prototype designed to represent the type of rental unit typically assisted by the City. Appendix II presents the survey materials, methodology, and findings as well as affordable rent calculations. For the nexus ana lysis, KMA assumes that households needing affordable housing will be housed in garden apartments. They are the least expensive and represent the product type that the City is most likely to assist in the future. The cost of developing new residential units in Carlsbad was assembled from a number of sources. Land costs were gathered from recent land sa les data collected by KMA. KMA is also actively working on a number of multi-family projects in various locations in San Diego County and has recent developer proforma financial analyses from which to draw cost information. 1 The range of impact shown in Exhibit 5 in terms of demand for affordable housing is less than the 15% requirement in the City's lnclusionary Ordinance applicable to new market-rate ownership housing (and previously applied to new market-rate rental housing as well). Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 10 Each income or affordability tier is associated with a subsidy needed to produce and deliver a unit at the specified affordability level. These subsidies are equal to affordability gaps, or the difference between the cost of development and the unit value supported by the rent that can be paid by a household at the specified income level. When the affordability gap conclusions for each income tier are linked to the number of affordable units required as a result of market-rate development (as indicated in Exhibit 4), the result is a total nexus cost per new market-rate rental unit. Specifically, the maximum supported fee level per market-rate unit is derived from the calculation shown in Exhibit 6. Exhibit 6: Maximum Supported Fee Per Market-Rate Rental Unit Calculation Affordability gap per affordable unit X Affordable units required per market- rate rental unit The results per unit are shown in Exhibit 7: . -. Exhibit 7: Maximum Supported Fee Level Per Market-Rate Rental Unit Affordability Garden Household Income Category Gap Townhome Apartments Very low Up to 50% AM I $134,000 $12,300 $10,400 Greater than Low 50% but not $137,800 $11,200 $9,400 exceeding 80% AMI Maximum Supported Fee $23,500 $19,800 Level -- Maximum supported fee level per market-rate rental unit Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Apartments Rental $10,400 $11,000 $9,400 $10,000 $19,800 $21,000 As shown in Exhibit 7, the residential nexus analysis supports maximum fee levels ranging from $19,800 to $23,500 per market-rate rental unit, depending on the development prototype. The per-unit maximum fees indicated in the table above result in a predictably higher fee per unit associated with the bigger or more expensive rental housing unit and the higher income (and expenditures) of the more affluent households. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 11 The total nexus costs indicated above may also be expressed on a per-square-foot level. The square foot (SF) areas of the prot otype units used throughout the analysis become the basis for the calculation. Again, see Appendix II for more discussion of the prototypes. Exhibit 8 presents t he results per square foot: Exhibit 8: Total Nexus Costs Per Square Foot Stacked Affordability Garden Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Gap Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Prototype Size (SF} l ,250SF 860SF 820SF 750SF Up to 50% AMI $134,000 $10 $12 $13 $15 Greater than 50% but not $137,800 $9 $11 $12 $13 exceeding 80% AM I Total Nexus Costs (ll $19 $23 $24 $28 (1) Allow for rounding error. The calculated fee levels indicated above are maximum fees supported by the nexus analysis. Establishing the appropriate fee level for the City is a policy matter that will be determined by the City Council. Potential Fee Levels for Consideration When considering fee levels, there are several economic or real estate factors that may be take n into account in determining potential fee l levels. A primary concern is t hat the fee levels not be so onerous that they significa ntly constrain the development of new rental units. As discussed, the nexus analysis establishes the maximum supportable fee level from a legal nexus perspective. The KMA methodology employs a series of conservative assumptions designed to ensure that the analysis does not overstat e the impact of residential housing construction on the demand for new affordable housing. KMA recommen ds that cities select a fee level that leaves a margin between the fee and the maximum established by t he nexus analysis. This allows for minor changes t o the many input s, assumptions, and calculations employed in the nexus analysis while assuring that the adopted fee remains below the supported nexus amount. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 12 In order to provide the City with a framework for setting fee levels, KMA considered three approaches: (1) the nexus supported fee amounts; (2) the funding level required for the City to implement affordable housing development off-site; and (3) a comparison with the economic impact of incorporating affordable housing development on-site. Each of these approaches is briefly reviewed below. Nexus Supported Fee Amounts -The nexus supported fee amounts represent the maximum supportable fee from a lega l nexus perspective. As shown below, for the four development prototypes, the maximum supported fee for market-rate rental housing is estimated to range between $19,800and $23,SOOper unit, or $19 to $28 per SF. The average supported fee is $21,025 per unit or $24 per SF. The City is likely to adopt a single impact fee applicable to all market-rate rental housing development, regardless of product type. Therefore, as shown in Exhibit 9, the appropriate maximum fee level supported by the residential nexus analysis is the lowest of the four prototypes, or $19,800 per unit or $19 per SF. Exhibit 9: Maximum Nexus Supported Fee Amounts Prototype 1 Prototype 2 Prototype 3 Garden Stacked Flat Townhomes Apartments Rentals Per Unit $23,500 $19,800 $19,800 Per SF $19 $23 $24 Prototype 4 Mixed-Use Rentals $21,000 $28 Average $21,025 $24 • Funding Level Required for City to Develop 15% Affordable Housing Off-Site -This approach estimates the funds that the City would need to receive in order to develop affordable rental housing in a separate off-site location from a market-rate rental development. As noted previously, each low-income rental unit has an estimated financing gap of $137,800. In other words, for the City to undertake development of the affordable housing units, it would need to collect $137,800 per affordable rental unit required. This gap figure equates to $20,670 per market-rate rental unit developed (15% times $137,800}. As shown in Exhibit 10, depending on the market-rate rental development prototype, this required funding level translates to a range from $17 to $28 per SF, or an average of $24 per SF. If the City adopts fees below this level, it would not be able to keep pace with its goal of developing 15% affordable units off-site. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 13 Exhibit 10: Funding Level Required for City to Develop 15% Affordable Housing Off-Site Prototype 1 Prototype 2 Prototype 3 Prototype 4 Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhomes Apartments Rentals Rentals Per Unit $20,670 $20,670 $20,670 $20,670 Per SF $17 $24 $25 $28 Average $18,510 $24 • Economic Impact of Incorporating 15% Affordable Housing On-Site -The economic impact to market-rate rental developments resulting from incorporation of 15% affordable housing on-site, should owners choose to do so in compliance with the Costa-Hawkins Act, can be measured using each of the financial proformas for the four prototypes evaluated in this study. As shown in Exhibit 11, KMA estimates this economic impact to range between $17,100 and $27,500 per unit, or $20 to $34 per SF. The average economic impact is $22,850 per unit or $26 per SF. Notably, the economic impact figures vary more widely than the funding level requirements shown in Exhibit 10. The figures in Exhibit 11 assume that developers are building comparable product for both the market-rate and affordable rental units. The figures in Exhibit 10 assume that the City is building affordable rental units in a garden apartment configuration. Exhibit 11: Economic Impact of Incorporating 15% Affordable Housing On-Site Prototype 1 Prototype 2 Prototype 3 Prototype 4 Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhomes Apartments Rentals Rentals Per Unit $27,500 $17,100 $21,000 $25,800 Per SF $22 $20 $26 $34 Average $22,850 $26 In view of the above approaches, KMA recommends that the City consider an impact fee that does not exceed $20,000 per unit or $20 per SF. Exhibit 12 below provides a graphical illustration of the nexus analysis using the Garden Apartments prototype. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 14 EXHIBIT 12 Overview of Nexus Analysis Figures in Chart Apply to the Garden Apartments Protoype Starting Point: 100 New Market Rate Units Market Rent: $1,972 100 New Households Avg. Income $81,000/Year ($8.1 M for 100 HHs) New Demand for Goods and Services ($5.5 M new spending after deductions for taxes, etc.) Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 Adjust from number of workers to Households at 1.77 Workers per Household 42.5 jobs/ 1. 77 = 24.0 Households Distinguish Housing Need by Affordability Tier 15 units needed through 80%AMI (based on compensation levels for new service jobs) Multiply by Net Cost to Produce Affordable Units (Affordability Gap) Nexus Findin : Maximum Fee Levels $19,800 per unit $23 per SF February 2016 Page 15 Potential Indices for Fee Level Adjustment There are a number of potential indices that could be used to adjust fee levels in the future. Some objectives that could potentially be taken into consideration in selecting an appropriate index for the fee are as follows: Administrative Objectives • Simple and easily administered • Clear and objective, not subject to interpretation • Tied to readily accessible and neutral third party published source Potential Policy Objectives • Maintain ability to mitigate impacts/fund affordable housing over long-term • Maintain consistent fee burden over long-term • Respond to economic cycles: fee relief during economic downturn, increased fees with a strong economy Exhibit 13 reviews a range of potential indices that could be used to adjust the fee in the future. Exhibit 13: Potential Indices for Fee Level Adjustment Index Concept / Description #1 Fees go up or down based on building construction costs. Building Cost Index (BCI) Published by Engineering News Record (ENR). Available at national average and for 20 cities (not Carlsbad or San Diego; Los Angeles is nearest city available). Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060,010.001 Advantages Very well established. Consistent fee burden over time relative to construction costs. Disadvantages May not trend with changes in non- construction development costs (land, other soft costs). May not trend with cost to produce affordable units. Only addresses cost side of the equation. February 2016 Page 16 Exhibit 13: Potential Indices for Fee Level Adjustment Index Concept / Description Advantages Disadvantages #2 Also published by ENR and Same as above. Same as above. similar to Building Cost Indices Construction but with different weighting of Costs Index labor and material cost (CCI) categories. #3 Published by the U.S. Burea u of Very well established. May not trend with: Labor St atistics. Available for Consumer major metro areas including San Generally tracks with -Co nstru ction costs Price Index Diego. inflation. (consistent fee (CPI) Produced by neutral burden) governmental agency. or -Cost to produce affordable units (consistent ability to mitigate impacts) #4 BLS publishes "producer price Opportunity for index Different indices for indices" for a long list of tied to specific types of different uses Bureau of industries. construction. somewhat more Labor Statistics complicated (BLS) Produced by neutral Construction governmental agency. Only addresses cost Indices side of the equation #5 Metric tied to housing Maintains consistent Would not maintain affordability. level of mitigation. co nsistent fee burden. Housing Affordability Fees go up as housing becomes Revenue increase as Requires special Index less affordable. cost to produce unit calculation by the City increases. of Carlsbad and not Based on what median produced by a neutral household can afford versus third party. median housing cost For purposes of simplicity, the City may want to consider an annual adjuster based on one of the readily ava ilable, third party indices listed above. However, the affordability gaps are a very large determinant of the overall nexu s amounts. Indices such as #1 through #4 above only address the cost side of the affordability gap equation. Measures of affordability ga p, on the Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 17 other hand, typically require formulas using a variety of inputs and assumption that have to be determined each year. KMA recommends that the City adopt a fee program which enables the City Manager to make the determination whether to implement the annual adjustment each year, up to the amount supported by the index that is ultimately selected by the City. Regardless of the index used by the City, it is important that the indexed fee should remain under the ceilings established by the nexus analysis. It is difficult to predict exactly how the maximum fees supported will be affected by changes in the economy and the housing market. KMA also recommends that the City conduct a re-evaluation of the fee every five to eight years. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 18 Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 APPENDIX I: RESIDENTIAL NEXUS ANALYSIS February 2016 Page 19 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Keyser Marston Associates (KMA) has prepared this residential nexus analysis for the City of Carlsbad (City) per a contractual agreement. This residential nexus analysis addresses market- rate residential rental projects and the various types of rental units that could be subject to the lnclusionary Housing Ordinance, and quantifies the linkages between new market-rate units and the demand for affordable housing generated by the residents of new units. The Carlsbad Context and Purpose of Report The purpose of Appendix I is to provide an overview of the analysis and a discussion of the findings of a residential nexus analysis conducted for the City of Carlsbad (City). The residential nexus analysis quantifies the linkages between new market-rate rental units and the demand for affordable housing. The conclusion of the nexus analysis reflects the maximum mitigation impact fee supported to offset affordable housing demand caused by the development of market-rate rental housing. Court rulings in 2009 questioned whether a city can impose an inclusionary ordinance on a market-rate rental development (Palmer/Sixth Street Properties v. City of Los Angeles [Palmer]), and the legitimacy of affordable housing in-lieu fees (Building Industry Association of Central California vs. City of Patterson [Patterson]). Under Palmer, the California Court of Appeals ruled in July 2009 that local inclusionary housing requirements when applied to rental housing violate State laws governing rent controls. As a result, many cities have restructured their inclusionary housing rental programs into mitigation (or impact) fee based programs. The residential nexus analysis takes into consideration the Palmer decision and demonstrates the impact fee levels supported from a nexus perspective. The Patterson case invalidated in-lieu affordable housing fees if "no reasonable relationship" is found between the construction of market-rate housing and the need for affordable housing. As such, instead of establishing fees based on a city's citywide need for affordable housing, affordable housing impact fees must be rationally related to the impact caused by market-rate housing. The purpose of the nexus study is to analyze the nexus between new market-rate rental development and to calculate a nexus-based housing impact fee. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 20 The City of Carlsbad's existing lnclusionary Housing Ordinance requires all new ownership residential projects to set aside at least 15% of units so as to be restricted in terms of occupancy and affordability to lower income households. Lower-income households includes Low-income, Very low-income, and Extremely low-income households, whose gross income does not exceed 80% of median income for San Diego County as determined annually by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (City of Carlsbad Municipal Code §21.85.020). In accordance with the Palmer ruling, the City of Carlsbad amended its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance in 2010. As a result, the City no longer applies its lnclusionary Housing Ordinance to rental developments unless the developer has received direct financial assistance or other development incentives or concessions from the City and the developer agrees by contract to limit rents for below market-rate rental units. Developers may also voluntarily agree to provide inclusionary rental units. Subdivisions with fewer than seven units are allowed the payment of an in-lieu fee to fulfill their inclusionary housing obligations. The fee is based on the difference in cost to produce a market-rate rental unit versus a lower- income affordable unit. As of September 1, 2015, the in-lieu fee per market-rate for-sale unit was $4,515. This fee was established in 1996 and has not been updated since. This fee is currently paid by developments of six (6) units or less, which also have an inclusionary requirement per the City's lnclusionary Ordinance. This fee is not proposed for change at this time. A new fee is being considered for application to market-rate rental developments of any size, which are not subject to the City's lnclusionary Ordinance but create a need for affordable housing for low income households. The Nexus Concept The underlying nexus concept is that the newly constructed residential units represent new households in Carlsbad. These households represent new income in Carlsbad that will consume goods and services, either through purchases of goods and services or "consumption" of governmental services. New consumption translates to jobs; a portion of the jobs are at lower compensation levels; low compensation jobs generate new lower-income households that cannot afford market-rate units in Carlsbad and therefore need affordable housing. Use of This Study An impact analysis of this nature has been prepared for the limited purpose of determining nexus support for consideration of a rental housing impact fee. It has not been prepared as a document to guide policy design in the broader context. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 21 Methodology and Models Used The methodology or analysis procedure for this nexus analysis starts with the rental rate of a new market-rate residential unit, and moves through a series of linkages to the gross income of the household that rented the unit, the disposable income of the new household, the annual expenditures on goods and services, the jobs associated with the purchases and delivery of services, the income of the workers doing those jobs, the household income of the workers and, ultimately, the affordability level of the housing needed by the worker households. The steps of the analysis from household income to jobs generated were performed using the IMPLAN model, a model widely used for over 30 years to quantify the impacts of changes in a local economy, including employment impacts from changes in personal income. From job generation by industry, KMA used its own jobs housing nexus model to quantify the income of worker households by affordability level. To illustrate the linkages by looking at a simplified example, we can take an average household that rents a unit at a certain rent. From that rent, we estimate the gross income of the household and the disposable income of the household. The disposable income, on average, will be used to "purchase" or consume a range of goods and services, such as purchases at the supermarket or services at the bank. Purchases in the local economy in turn generate employment. The jobs generated are at different compensation levels. Some of the jobs are low paying and as a result, even when there is more than one worker in the household, there are some lower-and middle-income households who cannot afford market-rate housing in Carlsbad. The IMPLAN model quantifies jobs generated at establishments that serve new residents directly (e.g., supermarkets, banks, or schools), jobs generated by increased demand at firms which service or supply these establishments, and jobs generated when the new employees spend their wages in the local economy and generate additional jobs. The IMPLAN model estimates the total impact combined. Net New Underlying Assumption An underlying assumption of the analysis is that households that rent new units represent net new households in Carlsbad. If renters have relocated from elsewhere in the City, vacancies have been created that will be filled. An adjustment to new construction of units would be Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 22 warranted if Carlsbad were experiencing a significant level of demolitions or loss of existing housing inventory. However, the rate of housing unit removal is so low as to not warrant an adjustment or offset. Since the analysis addresses net new households in Carlsbad and the impacts generated by their consumption expenditures, it quantifies net new demands for affordable units to accommodate new worker households. As such, the impact results do not address nor in any way include existing deficiencies in the supply of affordable housing. Geographic Area of Impact The analysis quantifies impacts occurring within San Diego County. The IMPLAN model computes the jobs generated within the County and sorts out those that occur beyond the County boundaries. The results therefore slightly underestimate the total impact of new housing on the total need for affordable housing. Job impacts, like most types of impacts, occur irrespective of political boundaries. And like other types of impact analyses, such as traffic, impacts beyond city boundaries are experienced, are relevant, and are important. See Addendum for further discussion. Disclaimer This report has been prepared using the best and most recent data available at the time of the analysis. Local data and sources were used wherever possible. Major sources include the U.S. Census Bureau: 2011-2013 American Community Survey, California Employment Development Department, and the IMPLAN model, which we believe are sufficiently accurate for the purposes of the analysis. A. MARKET-RATE UNITS AND GROSS HOUSEHOLD INCOME This section describes the prototypical market-rate rental units and the income of the renter households assumed in KMA nexus analysis. Household income is the input to the IMPLAN model described in Section B of this report. These are the starting points of the chain of linkages that connect new market-rate rental units to incremental demand for affordable residential units. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 23 This section provides a summary of the prototypes and household income. More description and supporting tables are provided in Appendix II. Recent Housing Market Activity and Prototypical Units In identifying residential prototypes, KMA undertook a survey of residential rental units currently being marketed throughout the City. KMA accessed readily available data on apartment rents. Four rental prototypes were identified, representing projects currently being proposed, developed, or that have the potential for development in the foreseeable future. Like much of San Diego County, Carlsbad is experiencing a resurgence in development interest in rental apartments. As of this writing in 2016, economic and investment conditions for apartment development are the healthiest they have been in years. Rents continue to move in an upward direction, while vacancies remain fairly stable. In short, there is robust demand within the rental market, with significant new construction underway or anticipated in many submarkets within the coming years. For the purposes of the nexus analysis, the prototypes are as follows: • A townhome unit in a project with an average density of 12 units to the acre. Unit sizes averages 1,250 SF, a mix of two and three bedroom units, renting for $2,360 per month. • A garden apartment unit in a project with an average density of 20 units per acre. Unit size averages 860 SF, a mix of one, two and three bedroom units, renting for $1,972 per month. • A stacked flat apartment unit in a project with an average density of 30 units per acre. Includes a mix of one and two bedroom units, averaging 820 SF, renting for $1,987 per month. • Mixed-use stacked flats over ground floor retail with an average density of 28 units per acre. Includes one and two bedroom units averaging 750 SF and 3,000 SF of retail space on the ground floor. Average market rent is estimated at $2,091 per month for the residential component and $3.00 per SF per month triple-net (NNN) for the commercial component. Reference is made to the market survey material in Appendix II. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 24 Summary Exhibit 14 presents the prototypes tested in the nexus analysis: Exhibit 14: Summary of Prototypes Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Average Unit Size 1,250 SF 860 SF 820 SF 750 SF Average No. of Bedrooms 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 Average Rent $2,360 $1,972 $1,987 $2,091 Commercia l Rent/SF $3.00 ------------ Income of Housing Unit Renter The next step in the analysis is to determine the income of the renting households in the prototypical units. The gross household income of the renters is the input to the IMPLAN model. The standard used by lending institutions and Federal, State, and local affordable housing programs for relating annual rent to household income is 30%. While leasing agents and landlords may permit rental payments to represent a slightly higher share of total income, 30% represents an average. This is based on the fact that renters are also likely to have other debt, and that many do not choose to spend more than 30% of their income on rent, since, unlike an ownership situation, the unit is not viewed as an investment with value enhancement potential. The resulting relationship is that annual household income is 3.3 times annual rent. The estimated gross household incomes of renters of the prototype units are calculated in Appendix I -Tables A-1 through A-4, and summarized in Exhibit 15. Exhibit 15: Household Income Gross Household Income Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 Garden Townhome Apartments $97,000 $81,000 Stacked Flat Apartments $82,000 Mixed-Use Rental $86,000 February 2016 Page 25 Gross household income is then converted to disposa ble income by accounting for State and Federal income taxes, Social Security and Medicare (FICA) taxes, and personal savings. The percent of income available for expenditures is estimated at 71% as ca lcu lated in Appendix I - Table A-5. The nexus ana lysis is conducted on 100-unit building modules for ease of presentation, and to avoid fractions. Appendix I -Table A-6 and Exhibit 16 summarize the conclusions of this section and calculate the total household expenditures available for the 100-unit building modules. This is the input into the IMPLAN model. Exhibit 16: Income Available for Expenditures Income Available for Household Expenditures Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 Townhome $66,000 Garden Apartments $55,000 Stacked Flat Apartments $55,000 Mixed-Use Rental $58,000 February 2016 Page 26 TABLEA-1 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PROTOTYPE 1 -TOWNHOMES AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Market Rent Monthly $1.89 /SF 1,250 SF 1 Utilities 2 Monthly Housing Cost II. Annual Housing Cost Ill. % of Income Spent on Rent IV. Annual Household Income Required V. Annual Rent to Income Ratio Prototype 1 Townhomes $2,360 .$.§2 $2,429 $29,148 30% 3 $97,000 3.3 (1) Based on results of the market survey. Represents rent levels applicable to new units. (2) Monthly utility estimate includes landlord reimbursements and direct-billed utilities. APPENDIX I (3) While landlords may permit rental payments to represent a slightly higher share of total income, 30% represents an average. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 27 TABLE A-2 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PROTOTYPE 2 -GARDEN APARTMENTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Prototype 2 Garden Apartments I. Market Rent Monthly Utilities 2 Monthly Housing Cost II. Annual Housing Cost Ill. % of Income Spent on Rent $2.29 /SF 860 SF 1 $1,972 ill $2,031 $24,372 30% 3 IV. Annual Household Income Required $81,000 V. Annual Rent to Income Ratio (1) Based on results of the market survey. Represents rent levels applicable to new units. (2) Monthly utility estimate includes landlord reimbursements and direct-billed utilities. 3.3 APPENDIX I (3) While landlords may permit rental payments to represent a slightly higher share of total income, 30% represents an average. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 28 TABLEA-3 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PROTOTYPE 3 -STACKED FLATS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Market Rent Monthly $2.42 /SF 820 SF 1 Utilities 2 Monthly Housing Cost II. Annual Housing Cost Ill. % of Income Spent on Rent IV. Annual Household Income Required V. Sales Rent to Income Ratio Prototype 3 Stacked Flats $1,987 .$.2.§ $2,043 $24,516 30% 3 $82,000 3.3 (1) Based on results of the market survey. Represents rent levels applicable to new units. (2) Monthly utility estimate includes landlord reimbursements and direct-billed utilities. APPENDIX I (3) While landlords may permit rental payments to represent a slightly higher share of total income, 30% represents an average. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 29 TABLE A-4 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PROTOTYPE 4 -MIXED-USE RENTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Market Rent Monthly $2.79 /SF Utilities 2 Monthly Housing Cost II. Annual Housing Cost Ill. % of Income Spent on Rent IV. Annual Household Income Required V. Annual Rent to Income Ratio 750 SF 1 Prototype 4 Mixed-Use Rental $2,091 ill $2,146 $25,752 30% 3 $86,000 3.3 (1) Based on results of the market survey. Represents rent levels applicable to new units. (2) Monthly utility estimate includes landlord reimbursements and direct-billed utilities. APPENDIX I (3) While landlords may permit rental payments to represent a slightly higher share of total income, 30% represents an average. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 30 APPENDIX I TABLEA-5 INCOME AVAILABLE FOR EXPENDITURES' AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Prototype 1 Town homes Gross Household Income $97,000 Gross Income 100% Less: Federal Income Taxes 2 10.6% State Income Taxes 3 3% FICA Tax Rate 4 7.65% Savings & other deductions 5 8% Percent of Income Available 71% for Expenditures 6 {Input to IMPLAN model] Prototype 2 Prototype 3 Prototype 4 Garden Stacked Mixed-Use Apartments Flats Rental $81,000 $82,000 $86,000 100% 100% 100% 10.6% 11% 10.6% 3% 3% 3% 7.65% 7.65% 7.65% 8% 8% 8% 71% 71% 71% 1 Gross income after deduction of taxes and savings. Income available for expenditures is the input to the IMPLAN model which is used to estimate the resulting employment impacts. Housing costs are not deducted as part of this adjustment step because they are addressed separately as expenditures within the IMPLAN model. 2 Reflects average tax rates (as opposed to marginal) based on U.S. Internal Revenue Services, Tax Statistics, Tables 1.1 and 2.1. Renter households are assumed to take the standard deduction. For the four prototypes, the average rate for AGI of $7S,000 to $100,000 for tax payers not itemizing deductions is applied at 10.6%. 3 Average tax rate estimated by KMA based on marginal rates per the California Franchise Tax Board and ratios of taxable income to gross income estimat!;!d based on U.S. Internal Revenue Service data. Average tax rates are based upon an average of single and married tax schedules weighted based upon the percentage of married households living in San Francisco per the 2009-2013 ACS. 4 For Social Security and Medicare. Conservatively assumes all income will be subject to Social Security taxes. The current ceiling on applicability of Social Security taxes is $117,000 (ceiling applies per earner not per household). 5 Household savings including retirement accounts like 401k / IRA and other deductions such as interest costs on credit cards, auto loans, etc, necessary to determine the amount of income available for expenditures. The 8% rate used in the analysis for households earning less than $225,000 is based on the average over the past 20 years computed from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data, specifically the National Income and Product Accounts, Table 2.1 "Personal Income and Its Disposition." Households earning more than $225,000 are assumed to save a higher percentage of their income, based on data published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, "Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence From Capitalized Income Tax Data," October 2014. 6 Deductions from gross income to arrive at the income available for expenditures are consistent with the way the IMPLAN model and National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) defines income available for personal consumption expenditures. Income taxes, contributions to Social Security and Medicare, and savings are deducted; however, property taxes and sales taxes are not. Housing costs are not deducted as part of the adjustment because they are addressed separately as expenditures within the IMPLAN model. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;Iag Page 31 APPENDIX I TABLE A-6 NEW MARKET-RATE RESIDENTIAL HOUSEHOLD SUMMARY AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD 100 Unit Per Unit Per SF Building Module I. Prototype 1: Townhomes Units 100Units Building SF (gross) 1,250 125,000 Rent Monthly $2,360 $1.89 /SF $236,000 Monthly with Utilities $2,429 $243,000 Annual with Utilities $29,148 $2,915,000 Rent to Income Ratio 3.3 3.3 Gross Household Income $97,000 $9,700,000 Income Available for Expenditure 1 71% of gross $69,000 $6,890,000 Expenditures adjusted for vacancy 2 5% vacancy $66,000 $6,500,000 II. Prototype 2: Garden Apartments Units 100Units Building SF (gross) 860 86,000 Rent Monthly $1,972 $2.29 /SF $197,000 Monthly with Utilities $2,031 $203,000 Annual with Utilities $24,372 $2,437,000 Rent to Income Ratio 3.3 3.3 Gross Household Income $81,000 $8,100,000 Income Available for Expenditure1 71% of gross $58,000 $5,750,000 Expenditures adjusted for vacancv2 5% vacancy $55,000 $5,500,000 (1) Represents net income available for expenditures after income tax, payroll taxes, and savings. See Table A-5 for derivation. (2) Allowance to account for standard operational vacancy. Source: Tables A-1 through A-5. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 32 TABLE A-6 NEW MARKET-RATE RESIDENTIAL HOUSEHOLD SUMMARY AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Ill. Prototype 3: Stacked Flats Units Building SF (gross) Rent Monthly Monthly with Utilities Annual with Utilities Rent to Income Ratio Gross Household Income Income Available for Expenditure1 71% of gross Expenditures adjusted for vacancl 5% vacancy IV. Prototype 4: Mixed-Use Rental Units Building SF (gross) Rent Monthly Monthly with Utilities Annual with Utilities Rent to Income Ratio Gross Household Income Income Available for Expenditure1 71% of gross Expenditures adjusted for vacancy 2 5% vacancy APPENDIX I 100 Unit Per Unit Per SF Building Module 100Units 820 82,000 $1,987 $2.42 /SF $199,000 $2,043 $204,000 $24,516 $2,452,000 3.3 3.3 $82,000 $8,200,000 $58,000 $5,820,000 $55,000 $5,500,000 100 Units 750 75,000 $2,091 $2.79 /SF $209,000 $2,146 $215,000 $25,752 $2,575,000 3.3 3.3 $86,000 $8,600,000 $61,000 $6,110,000 $58,000 $5,800,000 (1) Represents net income available for expenditures after income tax, payroll taxes, and savings. See Table A-5 for derivation. (2) Allowance to account for standard operational vacancy. Source: Tables A-1 through A-5. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 33 B. THE IMPLAN MODEL Consumer spending by residents of new housing units will create jobs, particularly in sectors such as restaurants, health care, and retail, which are closely connected to the expenditures of residents. The widely used economic analysis tool, IMPLAN (IMpact Analysis for PLANning), was used to quantify these new jobs by industry sector. IMPLAN Model Description The IMPLAN model is an economic analysis software package now commercially available through the Minnesota IMPLAN Group. IMPLAN was originally developed by the U.S. Forest Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management and has been in use since 1979 and refined over time. It has become a widely used tool for analyzing economic impacts from a broad range of applications from major construction projects to natural resource programs. IMPLAN is based on an input-output accounting of commodity flows within an economy from producers to intermediate and final consumers. The model establishes a matrix of supply chain relationships between industries and also between households and the producers of household goods and services. Assumptions about the portion of inputs or supplies for a given industry likely to be met by local suppliers, and the portion supplied from outside the region or study area, are derived internally within the model using data on the industrial structure of the region. The output or result of the model is generated by tracking changes in purchases for final use (final demand) as they filter through the supply chain. Industries that produce goods and services for final demand or consumption must purchase inputs from other producers, which in turn, purchase goods and services. The model tracks these relationships through the economy to the point where leakages from the region stop the cycle. This allows the user to identify how a change in demand for one industry will affect a list of over 400 other industry sectors. The projected response of an economy to a change in final demand can be viewed in terms of economic output, employment, or income. Data sets are available for each county and state, so the model can be tailored to the specific economic conditions of the region being analyzed. This analysis utilizes the data set for San Diego County. As will be discussed, much of the employment impact is in local-serving sectors, Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 34 such as retail, eating and drinking establishments, and medical services. The employment impacts will extend throughout the County and beyond based on where jobs are located that serve Carlsbad residents. Application of the IMPLAN Model to Estimate Job Growth The IMPLAN model was applied to link gross household income to household expenditures to job growth occurring in San Diego County. Employment generated by the household income of residents is analyzed in modules of 100 residential units to facilitate communication of the results and avoid fractions. The model distributes spending among various types of goods and services (industry sectors) based on data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Benchmark input-output study, to estimate employment generated. Job creation, driven by increased demand for products and services, was projected for each of the industries that will serve the new households. The employment generated by this new household spending is summarized in Exhibit 17. Exhibit 17: Jobs Generated per 100 Units Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Gross Household Income $97,000 $81,000 $82,000 $86,000 Income Available for Household $66,000 $55,000 $55,000 $58,000 Expenditures Total Jobs Generat ed, 100 units 50.3 42.5 42.5 44.9 Appendix I -Table B-1 provides a detailed summary of employment generated by industry. The table shows industries sorted by projected employment. Expenditure patterns vary by income level, and the IMPLAN resu lts are calculated according to the income bracket. In the case of the Carlsbad prototypes, garden apartment and stacked flat households are in one income category, and townhome and mixed-use rental households are in a second. Estimated employment is shown for each IMP LAN industry sector representing 1% or more of total employment. The jobs that are generated within the County are heavily in the retail industries, in restaurants and other eating establishments, and in industries that provide local services such as hea lth care and real estate. Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 35 The jobs counted in the IMPLAN model cover all jobs, full and part time, similar to the U.S. Census and all reporting agencies (unless otherwise indicated). Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 36 TABLE B-1 EMPLOYMENT GENERATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Per 100 Market-Rate Units Prototype 2: Prototype 3: Prototype 4: Prototype 1: Garden Stacked Mixed-Use Town homes Apartments Flats Rental Household Expenditures (100 Market-Rate Units) 1 $6,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,800,000 Jobs Generated by Industry 2 Offices of physicians 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 Offices of dentists 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Offices of other health practitioners 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Home health care services 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Hospitals 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 Nursing and community care facilities 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 Subtotal Healthcare 5.1 5.8 5.8 6.1 Retail -Motor vehicle and parts dealers 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Retail -Building material and garden equipment and supplies store! 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Retail -Food and beverage stores 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 Retail -General merchandise stores 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 Retail -Miscellaneious store retailers 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Retail -Nonstore retailers 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Subtotal Retail 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.6 Full-service restaurants 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 Limited-service restaurants 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 All other food and drinking places 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 Subtotal Food Services 7.3 6.2 6.2 6.5 Wholesale trade 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 Other financial investment activities 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related activities 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Real estate 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 Legal services 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 Employment services 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Services to buildings 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 Junior colleges, colleges, universities, and professional schools 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Other educational services 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Individual and family services 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 Personal care services 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other personal services 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 Private households 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 All Other 18.6 14.2 14.2 15.0 Total Number of Jobs Generated 50.3 42.5 42.5 44.9 1 Estimated employment generated by expenditures of households within 100 prototypical market-rate units. Employment estimates are based on the IMPLAN Group's economic model, IMPLAN, for San Diego County. Includes both full-and part-time jobs. 2 For Industries representing more than 1% of total employment. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;Iag APPENDIX I %of Jobs 4% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 14% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 1% 10% 6% 6% 3% 15% 3% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 33% 100% Page 37 C. THE KMA JOBS HOUSING NEXUS MODEL This section presents a summary of the analysis linking the employment growth associated with residential development, or the output of the IMPLAN model (see Section B), to the estimated number of lower-income housing units required in two income categories, for each of the four residential prototype units. Analysis Approach and Framework The analysis approach is to exa mine the employment growth for industries related to consu mer spending by residents in the 100-unit modules. Then, through a series of linkage steps, the number of employees is converted to households and housing units by affordability level. The findings are expressed in terms of numbers of affordable households per 100 market-rate units. The analysis addresses the affordable unit demand associated with new market-rate rental housing units in Carlsbad. Exhibit 18 shows the 2015 San Diego County Area Median Income (AMI) limits for the two categories that were evaluated --50% AMI and 80% AMI --as well as the County median for comparison purposes. Exhibit 18: 2015 Income Limits for San Diego County 111 Household Size (Persons) Household Income Category 1 2 3 4 5 6 Very low (2) Upto 50% $28,350 $32,400 $36,450 $40,500 $43,750 $47,000 AMI Greater than Low (2) 50% but not $45,400 $51,850 $58,350 $64,800 $70,000 $75,200 exceeding 80%AMI Median (3) 100%AMI $53,150 $60,700 $68,300 $75,900 $81,950 $88,050 (1) The 2016 San Diego County Area Median Income limits were not yet released when KMA completed its analysis. {2) Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development {HUD). Limits adjusted for high housing cost area. (3) Source: State of California Department of Housing and Community Development. Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 38 The analysis is conducted using a model that KMA developed and has applied to similar evaluations in many other jurisdictions. The model inputs are all local data to the extent possible, and are fully documented in the following description. Analysis Steps Appendix I -Tables C-1 through C-3 at the end of this section present a summary of the nexus analysis steps for the prototype units. Following is a description of each step of the analysis. Step 1-Estimate of Total New Employees Appendix I -Table C-1 commences with the total number of employees associated with the new market-rate units. The employees were estimated based on household expenditures of new residents using the IMPLAN model (see Section B). Step 2 -Adjustment from Employees to Employee Households This step (Appendix I -Table C-1) converts the number of employees to the number of employee households, recognizing that there is, on average, more than one worker per household, and thus the number of housing units in demand for new workers is reduc~d. The workers-per-worker- household ratio eliminates from the equation all, non-working households, such as retired persons, students, and those on public assistance. The County average of 1.77 workers per worker household (from the U.S. Census Bureau: 2011-2013 American Community Survey) is used for this step in the analysis. The number of jobs is divided by 1.77 to determine the number of worker households. (Average workers related to all households is a lower ratio because all households are counted in the denominator, not just worker households; using average workers per total households would produce greater demand for housing units.) The 1.77 ratio covers all workers, full and part time. Step 3 -Occupational Distribution of Employees The occupational breakdown of employees is the first step to arrive at income level. The output from the IMPLAN model provides the number of employees by industry sector. The IMPLAN output is paired with data from the Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2014, Occupational Employment Survey (OES) to estimate the occupational composition of employees for each industry sector. Industry refers to the economic activity in which workers are primarily engaged, such as retail or manufacturing; occupation describes the jobs of the workers in the Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 39 industry, such as sales clerks or managers in retail stores and machine operators and managers in manufacturing (each industry has its own distinct cross section of occupations or occupational mix). Pairing of OES and IMPLAN data was accomplished by matching IMPLAN industry sector codes with the four-digit North American Industry Classification System Code (NAICS) used in the OES. Each IMPLAN industry sector is associated with one or more NAICS codes, with matching NAICS codes ranging from two to five digits. Employment for IMPLAN sectors with multiple matching NAICS codes was distributed among the matching codes based on the distribution of employment among those industries at the national level. Employment for IMPLAN sectors where matching NAICS codes were only at the two-or three-digit level of detail was distributed using a similar approach, among all of the corresponding four-digit NAICS codes falling under the broader two-or three-digit categories. National-level employment totalsfor each industry within the OES were pro-rated to match the employment distribution projected using the IMPLAN model, which varies by income category. Occupational composition within each industry was held constant. The result is the estimated occupational mix of employees. As shown on Appendix I -Table C-1, new jobs will be distributed across a variety of occupational categories. The three largest occupational categories are office and administrative support positions (17%), food preparation and serving jobs {15%), and sales positions (13%). Step 3 of Table C-1 indicates both the percentage of total employee households and the number of net new employee households by occupation associated with 100 new market-rate units. Step 4 -Estimates of Employee Households Meeting the Very Low and Lower Income Definitions As shown on Step 4 of Appendix I -Table C-2, occupation is translated to income based on recent San Diego County wage and salary information from the California Employment Development Department. This step in the analysis calculates the number of employee households that fall into each income category for each household size. Individual employee income data was used to calculate the number of households that fall into the income categories by assuming that multiple earner households are, on average, formed of individuals with similar incomes. KMA notes that there is potential for wide variation in the mix of earner incomes within a multiple earner household, such as situations where young adults are Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 40 living at home with their parents. Overall, KMA has found that this assumption is a reasonable representation of the average situation. Employee households not falling into one of the major occupation categories are assumed to have the same income distribution as the major occupation categories. Step 5 -Estimate of Household Size Distribution In this step, household size distribution was input into the model in order to estimate the income and household size combinations that meet the income definitions for San Diego County. The household size distribution utilized in the analysis is that of worker households in San Diego County derived using American Community Survey (ACS) data. The model employs a distribution of the number of workers per household by household size. For example, four-person worker households can have one, two, three, or four workers in the household. The model uses ACS data to develop a distribution of the number of the workers per worker household, by household size. Step 6 -Estimate of Households that Meet Size and Income Criteria For this step KMA built a cross-matrix of household size and income to establish probability factors for the two criteria in combination. For each occupational group a probability factor was calculated for each income level and household size/number of workers combination, and multiplied by the number of households. Appendix I -Tables C-2 and C-3 show the result after completing Steps 4, 5, and 6. The calculated number of households that meet the size and income criteria for the under 50% of AMI category generated by 100 market-rate prototype units are shown in Appendix I -Table C-2. The methodology was repeated for the 50% to 80% AMI income tier, as shown in Appendix I -Table C-3. Summary Findings Appendix I -Table C-4 presents the results of the analysis for the residential prototype units. The table estimates the number of households generated in each affordability category and the total number of households over 80% of AMI. According to Appendix I -Table C-4, approximately 60% of new worker households generated by the expenditures of new residents have incomes below 80% of AMI, with approximately half of these households earning less than 50% of AMI. The finding that the jobs associated with consumer spending tend to be low-paying jobs where the workers will require housing affordable Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 41 at the lower income levels is not surprising. As noted above, direct consumer spending resu lts in employment that is concentrated in lower paid occupations including food preparation, administrative, and retail sales. The findings in Appendix I -Table C-4 are summarized in Exhibit 19, which shows the total demand t for afford ab le housing units associat ed with 100 market-rate units. Exhibit 19: New Worker Households by Income Level per 100 Market-Rate Units Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Very low Upto 50% AMI 9.2 7.8 7.8 8.2 Low Greater than 50% but not exceeding 8.1 6.9 6.9 7.2 80%AMI Total, Less than 80% AMI 17.3 14.6 14.6 15.4 Greater t han 80% AM I 11.0 9.3 9.3 9.9 Total, New Households 28.4 24.0 24.0 25.3 Affordable Units Required to Mitigate Impact of Market-Rate Rental Housing Some developers may choose to mitigate the impact of t heir developments by providing affordable rental housing rather t han paying a fee. The analysis findings identify how many lower income households are generated for every 100 market-rate units. These findings are adjusted to show the percentages of affordable rental hou sing needed to mitigate the impact of market-rate development. The percentages are calculated including both market-rate and affordable units (for example, 25 affordable units per 100 market-rate units translates to a project of 125 units; 25 affordable units out of 125 units equals 20%}. Exhibit 20 presents the results of the analysis, drawn from Appendix I -Table C-5, which contains greater detail. Each tier is cumulative, or incl usive of the tiers above. Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 42 Exhibit 20: Affordable Units Required to Mitigate Rental Housing Development Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Very low: Up to 50% AMI 8.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.6% Very low Greater than 50% but not exceeding 14.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.4% and Low 80%AMI The conclusion of the analysis is that a market-rate rental development would need to provide 13% to 15% of units affordable to lower-income households to mitigate the development's impact. This range of impact in terms of demand for affordable housing is less than the 15% requirement in the City's lnclusionary Housing Ordinance applicable to new market-rate ownership housing (and previously applied to new market-rate rental housing as well). Keyser Marston Associates Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 43 APPENDIX I TABLE C-1 EMPLOYEE HOUSEHOLDS GENERATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Prototype 2: Prototype 4: Prototype 1: Garden Prototype 3: Mixed-Use Town homes Apartments Stacked Flats Rental I. Step 1 -Employees' 50.3 42.5 42.5 44.9 II. Step 2 -Adjustment for Number of Households (1.77)2 28.4 24.0 24.0 25.4 Ill. Step 3 -Occupation Distribution Management Occupations 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% Business and Financial Operations 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Computer and Mathematical 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Architecture and Engineering 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Life, Physical, and Social Science 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Community and Social Services 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Legal 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Education, Training, and Library 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Healthcare Support 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Protective Service 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Food Preparation and Serving Related 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maint. 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Personal Care and Service 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% Sales and Related 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Office and Administrative Support 16.6% 16.6% 16.6% 16.6% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Construction and Extraction 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Production 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Transportation and Material Moving 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% Totals 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Management Occupations 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Business and Financial Operations 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 Computer and Mathematical 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 Architecture and Engineering 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Life, Physical, and Social Science 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Community and Social Services 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 Legal 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Education, Training, and Library 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 Healthcare Support 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 Protective Service 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Food Preparation and Serving Related 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.8 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Ma int. 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 Personal Care and Service 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 Sales and Related 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.3 Office and Administrative Support 4.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Construction and Extraction 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 Production 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transportation and Material Moving 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 Totals 28.4 24.0 24.0 25.4 Estimated employment generated by expenditures of households within 100 prototypical market rate units. Employment estimates based on economic model, IMPLAN. Adjustment from number of workers to households using average of 1.77 workers per worker household derived from the U.S. Census American Community Survey 2011 to 2013. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 44 TABLE C-2 VERY-LOW INCOME EMPLOYEE HOUSEHOLDS1 GENERATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Per 100 Market-Rate Units Prototype 1: Town homes Prototype 2: Garden Apartments I. Step 5 & 6 -Very-Low Income Households (under 50% AMI) within Major Occupation Categories Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical and Social Science Community and Social Services Legal Education Training and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building Grounds and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Admin Farm, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation Maintenance and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving II. Very Low Income Households -Major Occupations Ill. Very Low Households1 -all other occupations IV. Total Very Low Households1 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.02 0.45 2.43 0.69 0.86 1.41 1.15 0.15 0.65 7.99 1.22 9.21 1 Includes households earning from zero through 50% of San Diego County Area Median Income. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.38 2.05 0.58 0.73 1.20 0.97 0.12 0.55 6.76 1.03 7.79 Prototype 3: Stacked Flats 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.38 2.05 0.58 0.73 1.20 0.97 0.12 0.55 6.76 1.03 7.79 APPENDIX I Prototype 4: Mixed-Use Rental 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.02 0.40 2.16 0.62 0.77 1.26 1.02 0.13 0.58 7.13 1.09 8.22 Page 45 TABLE C-3 LOW INCOME EMPLOYEE HOUSEHOLDS1 GENERATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Per 100 Market-Rate Units Prototype 1: Town homes Prototype 2: Garden Apartments APPENDIX I Prototype 4: Prototype 3: Mixed-Use Stacked Flats Rental I. Step 5 & 6 -Low Income Households (greater than 50% but not exceeding 80% AMI) within Major Occupation Categories Management 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.07 Business and Financial Operations 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.12 Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical and Social Science Community and Social Services Legal Education Training and Library 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.19 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.12 Healthcare Support 0.44 0.37 0.37 0.39 Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related 1.38 1.17 1.17 1.23 Building Grounds and Maintenance 0.52 0.44 0.44 0.46 Personal Care and Service 0.63 0.53 0.53 0.56 Sales and Related 1.13 0.96 0.96 1.01 Office and Admin 1.58 1.34 1.34 1.41 Farm, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation Maintenance and Repair 0.31 0.26 0.26 0.27 Production Transportation and Material Moving 0.50 0.43 0.43 0.45 II. Low Income Households -Major Occupations 7.03 5.95 5.95 6.27 Ill. Low Households1 -all other occupations 1.07 0.91 0.91 0.96 IV. Total Low Households1 8.10 6.86 6.86 7.23 1 Includes households earning from 50% through 80% of San Diego County Area Median Income. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 46 APPENDIX I TABLE C-4 EMPLOYEE HOUSEHOLDS GENERATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Per 100 Market-Rate Units Prototype 2: Prototype 4: Prototype 1: Garden Prototype 3: Mixed-Use I. Number of New Households1 Town homes Apartments Stacked Flats Rental Under 50% Area Median Income 9.2 7.8 7.8 8.2 50% to 80% Area Median Income 8.1 6.9 6.9 7.2 Subtotal through 80% of Median 17.3 14.6 14.6 15.4 Above 80% Area Median Income 11.0 9.3 9.3 9.9 Total Employee Households 28.4 24.0 24.0 25.3 II. Percent of New Households 1 Under 50% Area Median Income 32% 32% 32% 32% 50% to 80% Area Median Income 29% 29% 29% 29% Subtotal through 80% of Median 61% 61% 61% 61% Above 80% Area Median Income 39% 39% 39% 39% Total Employee Households 100% 100% 100% 100% Households of retail, education, healthcare and other workers that serve residents of new market-rate units. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 47 TABLE C-5 INCLUSIONARY REQUIREMENT SUPPORTED AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Prototype 1: Town homes Prototype 2: Garden Apartments I. Affordable Unit Demand Per 100 Market-Rate Units -Cumulative Through 50% of Median Income 9 Units 8 Units 80% of Median Income 17 Units 15 Units 11. On-Site lnclusionary Percentage Supported -Cumulative Through 1 50% of Median Income 8.4% 7.2% 80% of Median Income 14.8% 12.8% APPENDIX I Prototype 3: Prototype 4: Stacked Mixed-Use Flats Rental 8 Units 8 Units 15 Units 15 Units 7.2% 7.6% 12.8% 13.4% 1 Calculated by dividing the supported number of affordable units by the total number of market-rate and affordable units. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag Page 48 D. MITIGATION COSTS This section takes the conclusions of the previous section on the number of households in the Very low and Low-income categories associated with the market-rate rental units and identifies the total cost of assistance required to make housing affordable. This section puts a cost on the units for each income level to produce the "total nexus cost." A key component of the analysis is the size of the gap between what households can afford and the cost of producing new housing in Carlsbad, known as the 'affordability gap.' Affordability gaps are calculated for each of the categories of Area Median Income (AMI): households earning up to 50% of AMI (Very low income households), and between 50% and 80% of AMI (Low-income households). A detailed description of the calculation of affordability gaps is contained in Appendix II. A brief summary is included below. Project Descriptions In order to determine the affordability gap, there is a need to match a household at each income level with a unit type and size according to government regulations and policies. The underlying concept is that the City will use rental housing impact fee revenues to assist in the provision of affordable units to mitigate the impacts of market-rate rental housing. The analysis assumes that housing for Very low-and Low-income households will be provided in garden apartments, the least expensive units. The prototypical affordable housing garden apartment project is designed to represent what the City is most likely to assist in the future. A detailed description of the affordable housing development prototype, including development costs, affordable values, and the affordability gap calculations, can be found in the tables at the end of this section. The affordable housing prototype was assumed as garden- style apartments with wood-frame construction, built at a density of 25 units to the acre, with one, two, and three-bedroom units, averaging 826 SF. Parking is provided at 1.5 spaces for the one bedroom units, 2.0 spaces per unit for the two and three bedroom units, and 0.25 spaces per unit for visitors. For Very low-income households (households earning up to 50% AMI), rents are set at 30% of 50% of Area Median Income. For Low-income households (households earning up to 80% AMI), maximum rents are calculated at 30% of 70% of Area Median Income. These are standards widely used in affordable housing _analysis and are consistent with current City policy. These Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 49 are also conservative assumptions, which produce a lower affordability gap than reality since not all households have income at or near the top end of the range. Development Costs The cost of developing new residential units in Carlsbad was assembled from a number of sources. Land costs were gathered from recent land sales data collected by KMA. KMA is also actively working on a number of multi-family projects at various locations in the San Diego area and has recent developer proforma financial analyses from which to draw cost information. From the above sources, KMA prepared a summary of total development costs, broken down into the major cost components: acquisition, direct or construction costs, indirect costs, and financing costs. Housing development costs are intended as averages and generally reflect rising construction costs, which have outpaced general economic inflation in 2014 and 2015, a trend that is expected to continue in the next few years. Affordability Gap The KMA financial proforma estimating the affordability gap for a garden style apartment is presented in Appendix II Tables B-1 through B-5. The proforma contains: i. A project description; ii. Estimates of development costs; iii. Stabilized net operating income based on maximum rents at 70% AMI and 50% AMI; iv. Estimates of maximum warranted investment; and v. The resulting financing gap generated reflective of the difference between warranted investment and development costs. The inputs and assumptions used in the KMA proformas are based on KMA's experience with comparable developments throughout San Diego County. In particular, KMA notes the following: • The cost estimates do not assume a prevailing wage requirement. • The KMA proforma assumed land costs of $35 per square foot of land, reflecting project location and achievable density. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 50 • As specific sites have not been defined for this study, KMA assumed an allowance for off- site improvements at $3 per SF of site area, and an allowance for on-site improvements at $10 per SF of site area. • The Very low income units (for households earning up to 50% AMI) are assumed to be financed with Low Income Housing Tax Credits and tax-exempt bond financing. The Low- income units (for households earning up to 80% AMI) are assumed to be financed using conventional debt and equity financing sources. Exhibit 21 provides a summary of the affordability gaps used in the analysis: Exhibit 21: Affordability Gap Per Unit -Garden Apartments Very low-income Low-income $134,000 $137,800 E. TOTAL NEXUS COSTS The last step in the nexus analysis marries the findings on the numbers of households in each of the lower income ranges associated with the four prototypes to the affordability gaps, or the costs of delivering rental housing to them in Carlsbad. Appendix I -Table E-1 summarizes the analysis. The affordability gaps are drawn from the prior discussion. The "nexus cost per market-rate unit" shows the results of the following calculation: the affordability gap times the number of affordable units demanded per market- rate rental unit. (Demand for affordable units for each of the income ranges is drawn from Table C-5 in the previous section and is adjusted to a per-unit basis from the 100-unit building module.) The total nexus costs for the four prototypes are presented in Exhibit 22: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 51 Exhibit 22: Maximum Supported Fee Level Per Market-Rate Unit Affordability Garden Stacked Flat Mixed-Use Household Income Category Gap Townhome Apartments Apartments Rental Ve ry low Upto 50% AMI $134,000 $12,300 $10,400 $10,400 $11,000 Low Greater than 50% but not $137,800 $11,200 $9,400 $9,400 $10,000 exceeding 80% AMI M aximum Supported Fee $23,500 $19,800 $19,800 $21,000 Level These costs express the total nexu s costs for the four prototype developments in the City of Carlsbad. These total nexus costs represent the ceiling for any requirement placed on market- rate development. The totals are not recommended levels for fees; they represent only the maximums established by this analysis, below which fees may be set. The total nexus costs indicated above may also be expressed on a per-square-foot level. The square foot area of the prototype unit used throughout the analysis becomes the basis for the calculation. Again, see Appendix II for more discu ssion of the prototypes. Exhibit 23 provides the results per square foot: Exhibit 23: Total Nexus Cost Per Square Foot Household Income Category Prototype Size (SF) Very low Upto 50%AMI Low Greater than 50% but not exceeding 80% AMI Total Nexus Costs (1) Allow for rounding error. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 Affordability Gap $134,000 $137,800 Garden Townhome Apartments 1,250 SF 860 SF $10 $12 $9 $11 $19 $23 Stacked Flat Apartments 820SF $13 $12 $24 Mixed-Use Rental 750SF $15 $13 $28 February 2016 Page 52 TABLE E-1 SUPPORTED FEE/ NEXUS SUMMARY PER SQUARE FOOT AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Household Income Level Under 50% Area Median Income 50% to 80% Area Median Income Total Supported Fee/ Nexus Affordability Gap Per Unit Avg. Unit Size (SF) Household Income Level Under 50% Area Median Income $134,000 1 50% to 80% Area Median Income $137,800 1 Total Supported Fee/ Nexus Prototype 1: Town homes $12,300 $11,200 $23,500 Prototype 1: Town homes 1,250 SF $9.90 $8.90 $18.80 Nexus Cost Per Market Rate Unit Prototype 2: Garden Apartments $10,400 $9,400 $19,800 Prototype 3: Stacked Flats $10,400 $9,400 $19,800 Nexus Cost Per Square Foot2 Prototype 2: Garden Prototype 3: Apartments Stacked Flats 860 SF 820 SF $12.10 $12.70 $11.00 $11.50 $23.10 $24.20 1 Assumes affordable rental units. Affordability gaps represent the remaining affordability gap after tax credit financing. Prototype 4: Mixed-Use Rental $11,000 $10,000 $21,000 Prototype 4: Mixed-Use Rental 750 SF $14.70 $13.30 $28.00 2 Nexus cost per square foot computed by multiplying affordable unit demand from Table C-4 by the affordability gap and then dividing by the average unit size. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad Residential Nexus model;2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX I Page 53 ADDENDUM: NOTES ON SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS Geographic Area of Impact The analysis quantifies impacts occurring within San Diego County. The IMPLAN model computes the jobs generated within the County and sorts out those that occur beyond the County boundaries. Job impacts, like most types of impacts, occur irrespective of political boundaries. And like other types of impact analyses, such as traffic, impacts beyond city boundaries are experienced, are relevant, and are important. Without an area-wide program to mitigate affordable housing impacts of all development, Carlsbad can ensure that those affordable housing impacts created by development within its jurisdiction are at least partially mitigated. Economic impact analyses are often conducted to demonstrate the jobs and dollar costs and benefits of major projects, such as, say, a sports stadium or the closing of a military base. It is standard practice in economic impact analyses to identify the geographic area or areas for which the impacts are being computed. In this case, the job impacts within San Diego County are quantified and where the job holders (or worker households) live is not identified but would be within commuting distance to San Diego County. Whether a jurisdiction chooses to mitigate none, all, or a share of the impacts of its actions or activities is a matter of policy. For clarification, counting all impacts associated with new rental housing units does not result in double counting, even if all jurisdictions were to adopt similar programs and charge affordable housing fees. The impact of a new housing unit is only counted once, in the jurisdiction in which it occurs. Obviously, within a metropolitan region, there is much commuting among jurisdictions, and cities house each others' workers in a very complex web of relationships. The important point is that impacts of residential rental development are only counted once. For jurisdictions that have housing programs on both residential and non- residential development, such as San Diego, KMA provides an analysis to demonstrate that double counting has not occurred. However, Carlsbad does not charge a commercial linkage fee to non-residential development. Affordability Gaps The use of the affordability gap for establishing a maximum fee supported from the nexus analysis is grounded in the concept that affordable units will be built to mitigate impacts. The Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 54 nexus analysis has established that units will be needed at one or more different affordability levels and, per local policy, the type of unit to be delivered depends on the income/affordability level. Most commonly, Very low-and Low-income households are assumed accommodated in rental units. The rental units assisted by the public sector for affordable households are usually small in square foot area (for the number of bedrooms) and modest in finishes and amenities. As a result, in some communities these units are similar in physical configuration to what the market is delivering at market-rate; in other communities (particularly very high income communities), they may be smaller and more modest than what the market is delivering. Parking, for example, is usually the minimum permitted by the code. ln_some communities where there is a wide range in land cost per acre or per unit, it may be assumed that affordable units are built on land parcels in the lower portion of the cost range. KMA tries to develop a total development cost summary that represents the lower half of the average range, but not so low as to be unrealistic. If the affordability gap is the difference between total development cost and sources of funds, the question sometimes arises as to how total development cost is defined. KMA defines total development costs as including land costs, construction costs, site improvements, architectural and engineering, financing and all other indirect costs, and an allowance for an industry profit (non-profit developers receive a development fee instead). Non-profit developers usually experience the same land and construction costs but do have differences in their financing costs, other indirect expenses, and fee structures. The end result, on average, is a total cost that is comparable to that experienced by for-profit developers. No prevailing wage requirement is assumed for either case. It is sometimes thought that the cost structure for non-profits is higher than for for-profit developers; for purposes of an affordability gap average, we take the position that costs are essentially the same. Development of market-rate rental units has been constrained for a number of years now in many California cities. However, current market rent levels in Carlsbad are strong enough to cover the costs of new development. As a result, total development cost summaries for rental units are drawn from current construction costs and the full complement of indirect costs that would be necessary to build an apartment structure. Affordability gaps are the difference between the value of the unit at restricted or affordable rent levels and the development costs. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 55 Excess Capacity of Labor Force At the time this analysis has been conducted, the national, regional, and local economy are all experiencing continued recovery from a severe recession. Unemployment in California averages just over 6.3%. In this context, the question has been raised as to whether there is excess capacity in the labor force to the extent that consumption impacts generated by new households will be, in part, absorbed by existing jobs and workers, thus resulting in fewer net new jobs. In response, an impact analysis of this nature is a one-time impact requirement to address impacts generated over the life of the project. The economic downturn was temporary condition; a healthy economy is returning and its impacts will be experienced. Additionally, the economic cycle self-adjusts. Development of new residential units will occur as conditions continue to improve. When this occurs, the improved economic condition of the households in the local area will absorb the current underutilized capacity of existing workers, employed and unemployed. By the time new units become occupied, current conditions will have likely improved. The Burden of Paying for Affordable Housing The City's housing programs, including the existing inclusionary program and proposed impact fee, do not place all burdens for the creation of affordable housing on new residential construction. The burden of affordable housing is borne by many sectors of the economy and society. A most important source in recent years of funding for affordable housing development comes from the Federal government in the form of tax credits (which result in reduced income tax payment by tax credit investors in exchange for equity funding). Additionally there are other Federal grant and loan programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and other Federal agencies. The State of California also plays a major role with a number of special financing and funding programs. Much of the State money is funded by voter-approved bond measures paid for by all Californians. Local governments have increasingly played a greater role in affordable housing. In addition, private sector lenders play an important role. Then there is the non-profit sector, both sponsors and developers that build much of the affordable housing. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 56 To date the City has assisted in the production of 2,105 affordable units, including 1,871 units produced as a result of the City's inclusionary housing requirements. In summary, all levels of government and many private parties, for-profit and non-profit, contribute to supplying affordable housing. Developers of market-rate rental housing are not being asked to bear the burden alone any more than they are assumed to be the only source of demand or cause for needing affordable housing in our communities. The City's Regional Housing Needs Allocation indicates the need for over 1,605 Very low-and Low-income units. The City's inclusionary program and proposed impact fee program will result in the construction, or funding, of only a small percentage of the affordable housing needed in the City of Carlsbad. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 57 APPENDIX II: RESIDENTIAL VALUES-MARKET AND AFFORDABLE Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. February 2016 16018ndh Page 58 11060.010.001 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW This appendix section provides the building blocks for the values used in other sections of this report, by establishing both market values and affordable values for various types of residential units or projects potentially developed in the City of Carlsbad. Market values are based on surveys of residential units or developments in the City of Carlsbad covering a range of residential types. Affordable values are formula-based, starting from the San Diego County Area Median Income and amounts "affordable" for housing per State and local policies. The difference between market and affordable values for any given residential unit type, assuming a fixed unit size and occupying household, is referred to as the affordability gap. The affordability gaps play a major role in the calculation of the maximum supportable fee based on this nexus study. A. MARKET VALUES Market Surveys and Timing Issues The surveys summarized in Appendix II Table A-1 were conducted in Fall 2015. As of the time of this writing, the multi-family housing market in Carlsbad continues its upward growth, as measured by rent and vacancy factors. As of this writing in early 2016, conditions in the multi-family housing market in San Diego are strong with rents continuing to move in an upward direction, while vacancies have remained fairly stable in the 3% range. Strong employment growth and in-migration into the region have further strengthened pent-up demand for apartments. In short, the rental market is projected to continue to strengthen, with significant new construction underway or anticipated within the next two years. Market Value Conclusions The market value conclusions, based on aH the surveys and indices, for analysis and program - design purposes are presented in Appendix II -Tables A-2 through A-15 and are as follows: • A townhome unit, built at an average density of 12 units to the acre. Includes a mix of two and three bedrooms, averaging 1,250 square feet (SF) renting for $2,360. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 59 • A garden apartment unit in a project with an average density of 20 units per acre. Includes one, two, and three bedroom units averaging 860 SF. Market rent is estimated at $1,972 per month. • A stacked flat apartment unit in a project with an average density of 30 units per acre. Includes a mix of one and two bedroom units, averaging 820 SF, renting for $1,987 per month. • Mixed-use stacked flats over ground floor retail with an average density of 28 units per acre. Includes one and two bedroom units averaging 750 SF and 3,000 SF of retail space on the ground floor. Average market rent is estimated at $2,091 per month for the residential component and $3.00 per SF per month triple-net (NNN) for the commercial component. The rent required for the rental projects represents the upper end of current rent levels in the City of Carlsbad (see Appendix II Table A-1). Based on our analysis, rents will have to approximate the level used in this analysis for new construction (without government assistance) to be feasible. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 60 TABLE A-1 SURVEY OF RENTAL APARTMENT DEVELOPMENTS, CARLSBAD (1) AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD :. Wel&hted Avera11es . oevelooment/OWner Adams Street Apartments Oakley Parker Bluwater Crossing Riverstane Residential Group Carlsbad Coast G. W. Williams Costa Ponte Dolphin Beach Apartments Jeff Hermanson Eaves Carlsbad Avalon Bay Communities Inc. Elan Alicante La Costa Turf Club View Limited Elan Beach Pointe Mark Gosselin Flower Fields Alliance Residential Company Marbella Irvine Company Pacific View Apartment Homes Irvine Company Park Place -Carlsbad Dwiaht Spiers Ridgeview Condos Edward Boseker Rising Glen Apartments R & V Manaqement Santa Fe Ranch Henderson Global Investors Seagate Village Condominiums HG Fenton Companv Seascape Apartment Homes Irvine Company Sommerset La Costa Silverado Canyon Partners The Arbors -Carlsbad The Bluffs At Carlsbad Triumph Management Company The Tradition Apartment Homes Con Am Group of Companies The Village Apartments Villaae Properties The Villas At Carlsbad United Dominion Realtv Trust (UDR) Villas La Costa TNT Gibralter Ltd./Barbara Ahlers Windsor At Aviara Windsor Communities Carlsbad (1) As of third quarter 2015. (2) Excludes affordable units. Source: MarketPointe Realty Advisors Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Rent .. SF' .. $1,331 725 $3,277 2,311 $1,641 768 $3,020 1,762 $2,100 1,200 $1,455 759 $1,953 1,054 $1,708 788 $1,800 1,013 $2,173 957 $2,269 961 $1,698 976 $1,517 1,103 $1,847 875 $1,806 858 $1,956 1,103 $1,704 817 $2,000 1,100 $1,839 1,078 $1,436 571 $2,317 1,277 $1,115 800 $1,632 885 $1,548 1,053 $2,082 893 $1,919 947 Filename: i: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_ Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag $/SF $1.84 $1.42 $2.14 $1.71 $1.75 $1.92 $1.85 $2.17 $1.78 $2.27 $2.36 $1.74 $1.38 $2.11 $2.10 $1.77 $2.09 $1.82 $1.71 $2.51 $1.81 $1.39 $1.84 $1.47 $2.33 $2.03 APPENDIX II Rani!! Vaclil'icy Rent SF $/sF· .· Units Rate' $1,250 655 $1.85 74 1.4% $1,450 785 $1.91 $2,570 1,354 $1.30 66 3.0% $3,650 2,767 $2.01 $1,148 415 $1.79 72 5.6% $1,913 900 $3.34 $2,550 1,326 $1.61 49 0.0% $3,295 2,042 $1.92 $2,100 1,200 $1.75 40 2.5% $2,100 1,200 $1.75 $1,325 400 $1.80 450 7.8% $1,615 848 $3.31 $1,845 1,000 $1.85 74 6.8% $2,245 1,200 $1.87 $1,400 420 $1.90 44 4.5% $1,900 1,000 $3.33 $1,607 668 $1.84 132 6.8% $2,145 1,074 $2.41 $1,930 667 $1.94 143 4.9% $2,785 1,240 $2.89 $1,840 662 $1.97 434 4.8% $2,985 1,378 $2.89 $1,675 954 $1.72 44 0.0% $1,725 988 $1.76 $1,500 1,085 $1.32 69 0.0% $1,700 1,292 $1.38 $1,722 678 $1.86 195 5.6% $2,200 1,182 $2.54 $1,640 679 $1.89 320 1.6% $1,748 924 $2.42 $1,935 1,084 $1.72 272 2.9% $2,530 1,145 $2.31 $1,765 670 $1.99 -208 4.3% $1,890 950 $2.63 $2,250 1,100 $2.05 48 4.2% $2,250 1,100 $2.05 $1,510 640 $1.41 58 0.0% $2,120 1,500 $2.52 $1,365 451 $2.29 163 2.5% $1,535 670 $3.03 $2,130 1,123 $1.54 157 5.7% $2,440 1,380 $1.99 $1,115 800 $1.39 98 0.0% $1,115 800 $1.39 $1,250 500 $1.46 102 2.9% $2,000 1,300 $2.50 $1,548 1,050 $1.46 24 0.0% $1,548 1,060 $1.47 $1,715 625 $1.89 288 3.8% $2,915 1,546 $2.79 $1,115 400 $1.30 3,624 4.1% $3,650 2,767 $3.34 Page 61 Market-Rate Prototypes Town homes Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study City of Carlsbad TABLE A-2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Site Area 12.00 Acres II. Gross Building Area Residential Area 180,000 SF Common Area Q SF 100% Total Gross Building Area (GBA) 180,000 SF 0% 100% Ill. Unit Mix # of Units One Bedroom 0 Units 0% Two Bedroom 72 Units 50% Three Bedroom 72 Units 50% Total 144 Units 100% IV. Number of Stories 2 Stories V. Density 12.0 Units/Acre VI. Construction Type TypeV VII. Parking Parking Type Attached Garage Number of Spaces Two and Three Bedroom 2.0 Spaces/Unit 288 Spaces Visitor 0.25 Spaces/Unit 36 Spaces Total Spaces 324 Spaces Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX II TOWN HOMES Unit Size 1,100 SF 1.400 SF 1,250 SF Page 62 TABLE A-3 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT COSTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Acquisition Costs II. Direct Costs (1) Off-Site Improvements (2) On-Site Improvements/Landscaping Parking Shell Construction Amenities/FF&E Contingency Total Direct Costs Ill. Indirect Costs Architecture & Engineering Permits & Fees (3) Legal & Accounting Taxes & Insurance Developer Fee Marketing/Lease-Up -Residential Contingency Total Indirect Costs IV. Financing Costs V. Total Development Costs (1) Does not include the payment of prevailing wages. (2) KMA gross estimate. Not verified by KMA or the City. (3) Per City. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Totals Per Unit $13,068,000 $90,800 $1,568,000 $10,900 $5,227,000 $36,300 $0 $0 $18,000,000 $125,000 $100,000 $700 $1,245,000 $8,600 $26,140,000 $181,500 $1,046,000 $7,300 $2,232,000 $15,500 $261,000 $1,800 $261,000 $1,800 $1,046,000 $7,300 $360,000 $2,500 $156,000 $1,100 $5,362,000 $37,200 $2,614,000 $18,200 $47,184,000 $327,700 Filename: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_vl\2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX II TOWN HOMES Notes $25 Per SF Site $3 Per SF Site $10 Per SF Site Included above $100 Per SF GBA -Res. Allowance 5.0% of Directs $145 Per SF GBA 4.0% of Directs $12 Per SF GBA 1.0% of Directs 1.0% of Directs 4.0% of Directs Allowance 3.0% of Indirects 20.5% of Directs 10.0% of Directs $262 Per SF GBA Page 63 TABLE A-4 NET OPERATING INCOME AND FINANCING SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) Two Bedroom Townhome Three Bedroom Townhome Total/ Average Add: Other Income Total Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) (Less) Vacancy Effective Gross Income (EGI) II. Operating Expenses (Less) Operating Expenses (Less) Property Taxes (1) (Less) Replacement Reserves Total Expenses Ill. Net Operating Income (NOi) IV. Capitalized Value Net Operating Income Capitalization Rate Capitalized Value (Less) Cost of Sale (Less) Developer Profit Net Sales Proceeds V. (Less) Development Costs VI. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Unit Size 1,100 SF 1,400 SF 1,250 SF #of Units 72 72 144 $/Month $1.94 $2,130 $1.85 $2,590 $1.89 $2,360 $12 /Unit/Month 5.0% ofGSI $4,200 /Unit/Year $3,764 /Unit/Year $250 /Unit/Year $8,215 /Unit/Year 30.4% of EGI $376,600 /Unit 3.0% 10.0% $0 /Unit (1) Based on capitalized income approach; assumes a 1.0% tax rate and 5.0% cap rate. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i: \Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX II TOWN HOMES Annual $1,840,700 $2,238,000 $4,078,700 $21,000 $4,099,700 {$205,000) $3,894,700 ($605,000) ($542,000) {$36,000} ($1,183,000) $2,711,700 $2,711,700 5.0% $54,234,000 ($1,627,000) {$5,423,000) $47,184,000 {$47,184,000} $0 Page 64 Market-Rate Prototypes Garden Apartments Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study City of Carlsbad APPENDIX II TABLE A-5 GARDEN APARTMENTS PROJECT DESCRIPTION AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Site Area II. {:jross Building Area Residential Area Common Area Total Gross Building Area (GBA) Ill. Unit Mix One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Total IV. Number of Stories 9.00 Acres 154,800 SF 95% 8,147 SF 5% 162,947 SF 100% # of Units Unit Size 54 Units 30% 700 SF 108 Units 60% 900 SF 18 Units 10% 1,100 SF 180 Units 100% 860 SF 2 - 3 Stories V. Density 20.0 Units/Acre VI. Construction Type TypeV VII. Parking Number of Spaces One Bedroom 1.5 Spaces/Unit 81 Spaces Two and Three Bedroom 2.0 Spaces/Unit 252 Spaces Visitor 0.25 Spaces/Unit 45 Spaces Total 378 Spaces Parking Type Garage Spaces 25% of Total 95 Spaces Carport Spaces 1.0 Space/Unit 180 Spaces Surface Spaces 103 Spaces Total 378 Spaces Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i:\Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_ Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;Iag Page 65 TABLE A-6 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT COSTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Totals I. Acquisition Costs $11,761,000 II. Direct Costs (1) Off-Site Improvements (2) $1,176,000 On-Sites/Landscaping $3,920,000 Parking -Carport $360,000 Parking -Garage $950,000 Shell Construction $18,739,000 FF&E/ Amenities $100,000 Contingency $1,262,000 Total Direct Costs $26,507,000 Ill. Indirect Costs Architecture & Engineering $1,060,000 Permits & Fees (3) $2,790,000 Legal & Accounting $265,000 Taxes & Insurance $265,000 Developer Fee $1,060,000 Marketing/Lease-Up $450,000 Contingency $177,000 Total Indirect Costs $6,067,000 IV. Financing Costs $2,651,000 Per Unit $65,300 $6,500 $21,800 $2,000 $5,300 $104,100 $600 $7,000 $147,300 $5,900 $15,500 $1,500 $1,500 $5,900 $2,500 $1,000 $33,700 $14,700 V. Total Development Costs $46,986,000 $261,000 (1) Does not assume payment of prevailing wages. (2) KMA gross estimate. Not verified by KMA or the City. (3) Per City. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: i: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_ Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS Comments $30 Per SF Site $3 Per SF Site $10 Per SF Site $2,000 Per Carport Space $10,000 Per Garage Space $115 Per SF GBA Allowance 5.0% of Directs $163 Per SF GBA 4.0% of Directs $17 Per SF GBA 1.0% of Directs 1.0% of Directs 4.0% of Directs Allowance 3.0% of Indirects 22.9% of Directs 10.0% of Directs $288 Per SF GBA Page 66 TABLE A-7 NET OPERATING INCOME AND FINANCING SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Total/ Average Add: Other Income Total Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) (Less) Vacancy Effective Gross Income (EGI) II. Operating Expenses (Less) Operating Expenses (Less) Property Taxes (1) (Less) Replacement Reserves Total Expenses Ill. Net Operating Income (NOi) IV. Capitalized Value Net Operating Income Capitalization Rate Capitalized Value (Less) Cost of Sale (Less) Developer Profit Net Sales Proceeds V. (Less) Development Costs VI. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Unit Size 700 SF 900 SF 1,100 SF 860 SF # of Units 54 108 18 180 APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS $/Month $2.35 $1,650 $2.31 $2,079 $2.25 $2,480 $2.29 $1,972 $15 /Unit/Month 5.0% of GSI $4,400 /Unit/Year $3,000 /Unit/Year $250 /Unit/Year $7,650 /Unit/Year 33.8% of EGI $300,000 /Unit 3.0% 10.0% $0 /Unit Annual $1,069,000 $2,654,550 $536,000 $4,259,550 $32,400 $4,291,950 ($214,600) $4,077,350 ($792,000) ($540,000) ($45,000) ($1,377,000) $2,700,350 $2,700,350 5.0% $54,007,000 ($1,620,000) ($5,401,000) $46,986,000 ($46,986,000) $0 (1) Based on capitalized income approach; assumes a 1.0% tax rate and 5.0% cap rate. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i: \Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;rks Page 67 Market-Rate Prototypes Stacked-Flats Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study City of Carlsbad TABLE A-8 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Site Area 7.00 Acres II. Gross Building Area Residential Area 172,200 SF Common Area 19,133 SF Total Gross Building Area (GBA) 191,333 SF Ill. Unit Mix # of Units One Bedroom 84 Units Two Bedroom 126 Units Three Bedroom Q Units Total 210 Units IV. Number of Stories 3 Stories V. Density 30.0 Units/Acre VI. Construction Type TypeV VII. Parking Number of Spaces One Bedroom 1.5 Spaces/Unit Two and Three Bedroom 2.0 Spaces/Unit Visitor 0.25 Spaces/Unit Total Parking Type Garage Spaces 25% of Total Carport Spaces 1.0 Space/Unit Surface Spaces Total Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 90% 10% 100% Unit Size 40% 700 SF 60% 900 SF 0% 1,100 SF 100% 820 SF 126 Spaces 252 Spaces 53 Spaces 431 Spaces 108 Spaces 210 Spaces 113 Spaces 431 Spaces Filename i:\Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;Iag APPENDIX II STACKED-FLA TS Page 68 TABLE A-9 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT COSTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Acquisition Costs II. Direct Costs (1) Off-Site Improvements (2) On-Site Improvements/Landscaping Parking -Carport Parking -Garage Shell Construction Amenities/FF&E Contingency Total Direct Costs Ill. Indirect Costs Architecture & Engineering Permits & Fees (3) Legal & Accounting Taxes & Insurance Developer Fee Ma rketi ng/Lease-U p Contingency Total Indirect Costs IV. Financing Costs V. Total Development Costs (1) Does not include the payment of prevailing wages. (2) KMA gross estimate. Not verified by KMA or the City. (3) Per City. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Totals Per Unit $12,197,000 $58,100 $915,000 $4,400 $3,049,000 $14,500 $420,000 $2,000 $1,080,000 $5,100 $24,873,000 $118,400 $250,000 $1,200 $1,529,000 $7,300 $32,116,000 $152,900 $1,285,000 $6,100 $3,255,000 $15,500 $321,000 $1,500 $321,000 $1,500 $1,285,000 $6,100 $525,000 $2,500 $210,000 $1,000 $7,202,000 $34,300 $3,212,000 $15,300 $54,727,000 $260,600 Filename: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_vl\2/18/2016;1ag APPENDIX II STACKED-FLA TS Notes $40 Per SF Site $3 Per SF Site $10 Per SF Site $2,000 Per Carport Space $10,000 Per Garage Space $130 Per SF GBA Allowance 5.0% of Directs $168 Per SF GBA 4.0% of Directs $17 Per SF GBA 1.0% of Directs 1.0% of Directs 4.0% of Directs Allowance 3.0% of Indirects 22.4% of Directs 10.0% of Directs $286 Per SF GBA Page 69 TABLE A-10 NET OPERATING INCOME AND FINANCING SURPLUS/(DEFICIT} AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI} One Bedroom Two Bedroom Total/ Average Add: Other Income Total Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) (Less) Vacancy Effective Gross Income (EGI) II. Operating Expenses (Less) Operating Expenses (Less) Property Taxes (1) (Less) Replacement Reserves Total Expenses Ill. Net Operating Income (NOi} IV. Capitalized Value Net Operating Income Capitalization Rate Capitalized Value (Less) Cost of Sale (Less) Developer Profit Net Sales Proceeds v. (Less) Development Costs VI. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Unit Size 700 SF 900 SF 820 SF # of Units 84 126 210 APPENDIX II STACKED-FLATS $/Month $2.50 $1,750 $2.38 $2,145 $2.42 $1,987 $15 /Unit/Month 5.0% ofGSI $4,600 /Unit/Year $2,995 /Unit/Year $250 /Unit/Year $7,848 /Unit/Year 34.4% of EGI $299,500 /Unit 3.0% 10.0% $0 /Unit Annual $1,764,000 $3,243,700 $5,007,700 $37,800 $5,045,500 ($252,300) $4,793,200 ($966,000) ($629,000) ($53,000) ($1,648,000) $3,145,200 $3,145,200 5.0% $62,904,000 ($1,887,000) ($6,290,000) $54,727,000 ($54,727,000) $0 (1) Based on capitalized income approach; assumes a 1.0% tax rate and 5.0% cap rate. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i: \Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag Page 70 Market-Rate Prototypes Mixed-Use Rental Affordable Housing Impact Fee Nexus Study City of Carlsbad TABLEA-11 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Site Area II. Gross Building Area Residential Area Common Area Total Residential Retail Area Total Gross Building Area Ill. Unit Mix One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Total IV. Number of Stories Residential Retail Total V. Density VI. Construction Type VII. Parking 0.50 Acre 10,500 SF 95% 553 SF 5% 11,053 SF 100% 3,000 SF 14,053 SF # of Units 7 Units 50% 7 Units 50% Q Units 0% 14 Units 100% 2 Stories 1 Story (ground floor) 3 Stories 28.0 Units/Acre TypeV Unit Size 650 SF 850 SF 1,000 SF 750 SF Parking Type Surface and Tuck-Under Number of Spaces -Residential One Bedroom Two and Three Bedroom Visitor Total Number of Spaces -Retail Total Number of Spaces Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 1.5 Spaces/Unit 2.0 Spaces/Unit 0.25 Spaces/Unit 1.0 Space/300 SF 10.5 Spaces 14 Spaces .1 Spaces 28 Spaces 10 Spaces 38 Spaces Filename i:\Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;Iag APPENDIX II MIXED-USE RENTAL Page 71 TABLE A-12 ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT COSTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Acquisition Costs II. Direct Costs (1) Off-Site Improvements (2) Demolition On-Site Improvements/Landscaping Parking Shell Construction -Residential Shell Construction -Retail Tenant Improvements -Retail Amenities/FF&E Contingency Total Direct Costs Ill. Indirect Costs Architecture & Engineering Permits & Fees (3) Legal & Accounting Taxes & Insurance Developer Fee Marketing/Lease-Up -Residential Marketing/Lease-Up -Retail Contingency Total Indirect Costs IV. Financing Costs V. Total Development Costs (1) Does not include the payment of prevailing wages. (2) KMA gross estimate. Not verified by KMA or the City. APPENDIX II MIXED-USE RENTAL Totals Per Unit Notes $1,307,000 $93,400 $60 Per SF Site $65,000 $4,600 $3 Per SF Site $50,000 $3,600 Allowance $218,000 $15,600 $10 Per SF Site $95,000 $6,800 $10,000 Per Space @ 25% $1,658,000 $118,400 $150 Per SF GBA -Res. $345,000 $24,600 $115 Per SF GBA -Retail $75,000 $5,400 $25 Per SF -Retail $35,000 $2,500 Allowance $127,000 $9,100 5.0% of Directs $2,668,000 $190,600 $190 Per SF GBA $160,000 $11,400 6.0% of Directs $253,000 $18,100 $18 Per SF GBA $27,000 $1,900 1.0% of Directs $27,000 $1,900 1.0% of Directs $107,000 $7,600 4.0% of Directs $35,000 $2,500 Allowance $24,000 $1,700 $8 Per SF GBA -Retail $18,000 $1,300 3.0% of Indirects $651,000 $46,500 24.4% of Directs $267,000 $19,100 10.0% of Directs $4,893,000 $349,500 $348 Per SF GBA (3) Per City. Reflects $15,474 per unit and $36,000 for the retail and parking components. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_vl\2/18/2016;1ag Page 72 TABLE A-13 NET OPERATING INCOME AND CAPITALIZED VALUE -RESIDENTIAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) One Bedroom Two Bedroom Total/Average Add: Other Income Total Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) (Less) Vacancy Effective Gross Income (EGI) II. Operating Expenses (Less) Operating Expenses (Less) Property Taxes (1) (Less) Replacement Reserves Total Expenses Ill. Net Operating Income (NOi) Unit Size 650 SF 850 SF 750 SF #of Units 7 z 14 APPENDIX II MIXED-USE RENTAL $/Month Annual $2.90 $1,884 $158,235 $2.70 $2,300 $193,000 $2.79 $2,091 $351,235 $25 /Unit/Month $4,200 $355,435 5.0% ofGSI {$18,000) $337,435 $4,600 /Unit/Year ($64,000) $3,214 /Unit/Year ($45,000) $250 /Unit/Year {$4,000) $8,071 /Unit/Year ($113,000) 33.5% of EGI $224,435 (1) Based on capitalized income approach; assumes a 1.0% tax rate and 5.0% cap rate. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i: \Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag Page 73 TABLE A-14 NET OPERATING INCOME AND CAPITALIZED VALUE -RETAIL AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI} Total Retail GSI 3,000 (Less) Vacancy -Retail Total Effective Gross Income (Less) Unreimbursed Expenses -Retail II. Net Operating Income (NOi) Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename:Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag Rent/SF $3.00 /SF/Month/NNN 10.0% of GSI -Retail 5.0% of EGI -Retail APPENDIX II MIXED-USE RENTAL Total Annual $108,000 ($10,800) $97,200 ($5,000) $92,200 Page 74 TABLE A-15 FINANCING SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Net Operating Income -Residential Net Operating Income -Retail Total Net Operating Income Capitalization Rate Capitalized Value (Less) Cost of Sale (Less) Developer Profit Net Sales Proceeds (Less) Development Costs II. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag 3.0% 12.0% $0 /Unit APPENDIX II MIXED-USE RENTAL $224,435 $92,200 $316,635 5.5% $5,757,000 ($173,000) ($691,000) $4,893,000 ($4,893,000) Page 75 B. AFFORDABLE VALUES Affordable rent levels are a function of the income level for which the unit is aimed to be affordable; the calculations are formula-based according to a combination of statute and policy, both local and Statewide. The Area Median Income is the starting point for the affordable rent calculation. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) publishes the Area Median Income (AMI) for each county annually. Appendix II -Table 8-1 presents the income limits for households at 50% AMI and 80% AMI. Affordable Rent Levels The ca lculation of affordable rents at 50% and 80% AMI is presented in Appendix II -Table 8-2. The calculation of affordable rents incorporates the following key assumptions: 1. Assignment of family size (number of persons) vs. unit size (number of bedrooms) based on the number of persons exceeding the number_9f bedrooms by one. 2. Calculation of affordable rents based on the formulas shown in Exhibit 24. Exhibit 24: Affordable Rent I.eve/ Calculations Household Income Very-low: 50% of AMI Low: 80% of AMI Affordable Rent Calculation 30% of 50% AM I 30% of 70% AM I 3. 50% and 70% income figures extrapolated from the figures shown in the Income Limits for 2015, published by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development as of March, 2015. 4. Utility allowances as determined by the County of San Diego, assuming a common utility profile for newer units. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 76 Based on the above assumptions, affordable rent levels for Very low-and Low-income households are shown in Exhibit 25: Exhibit 25: Affordable Rent Levels -Very Low-and Low-Income Number of Bedrooms Very low-income Low-income One $710 $1,085 Two $850 $1,215 Three $977 $1,342 The rent levels so defined (by unit size and income category) govern the maximum rent that a building owner may charge for a particular unit. Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh 11060.010.001 February 2016 Page 77 TABLE B-1 INCOME DEFINITIONS, 2015 AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD Family Size 50%AMI 1 Person $28,350 2 Persons $32,400 3 Persons $36,450 4 Persons $40,500 5 Persons $43,750 80%AMI $45,400 $51,850 $58,350 $64,800 $70,000 Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), effective March 6, 2015. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: i: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_vl;2/18/2016;rsp APPENDIX II Page 78 TABLE B-2 AFFORDABLE RENTS, 2015 AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS Affordable I Number of Bedrooms One Two Three I. Low Income Housing Tax Credits· 50% AMI Percent of AMI II. Ill. Family Size Household Income (Rounded) (ll Income Allocation to Housing Monthly Housing Cost (2) (Less) Utility Allowance (3) Low Income Housing Tax Credits• 60% AMI Percent of AMI Family Size Household Income (Rounded) (1) Income Allocation to Housing Monthly Housing Cost (2) (Less) Utility Allowance (3) Households earning u~ to 80% AMI Percent of AMI (4) Family Size Household Income (Rounded) Income Allocation to Housing Monthly Housing Cost (Less) Utility Allowance (3) 50.0% 1.5 $30,375 30% $759 fi1fil 60.0% 1.5 $36,450 30% $911 fi1fil 70.0% 2.0 $45,360 30% $1,134 ~ 50.0% 50.0% 3.0 4.5 $36,450 $42,125 30% 30% $911 $1,053 1illl filfil 60.0% 60.0% 3.0 4.5 $43,740 $50,550 30% 30% $1,093 $1,263 1illl filfil 70.0% 70.0% 3.0 4.0 $51,030 $56,700 30% 30% $1,276 $1,418 1illl filfil {1) California Tax Credit Allocation Committee 2015 maximum income levels for projects placed in service on or after March 6, 2015. (2) California Tax Credit Allocation Committee 2015 maximum rents for projects placed in service on or after March 6, 2015. (3) Per the San Diego County Department of Housing and Community Development 2015 Utility Allowance Schedule, July 1, 2015. Electric Heat Gas Cooking Gas Water Heater Other Electric Total Utilities One Two Three $9 $11 $14 $3 $3 $4 $10 $12 $15 ill lli ~ $49 $61 $76 (4) State of California Department of Housing and Community Development {HCD) 2015 income limits. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: i: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_vl\2/18/2016;rsp Page 79 C. AFFORDABILITY GAPS The calculation of affordability gap for an affordable housing prototype development is presented in Appendix II -Tables C-1 through C-4. The affordability gaps were calculated assuming affordable housing in the City is provided in an garden apartment development at two income levels: (1) all units affordable to Very low-income households (earning up to 50% AMI); and (2) all units affordable to Low-income households (earning up to 80% AMI). The Very low-income units are assumed to be financed with Low Income Housing Tax Credits and tax-exempt bond financing. The Low-income units are assumed to be financed using conventional debt and equity financing sources. The resulting financing gap generated reflects of the difference between warranted investment and development costs. In the nexus study, the affordability gap is the amount of subsidy dollars required to bridge the difference between the two va lues. Exhibit 26 provides a summary of the affordability gaps used in the analysis: ~ Exhibit 26: Affordability Gap Per Unit -Garden Apartments Very-low income $134,000 Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 16018ndh ll060.010.001 Low-income $137,800 February 2016 Page 80 TABLE C-1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION -GARDEN APARTMENTS AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I. Site Area II. Gross Building Area Residential Area Common Area Total Gross Building Area (GBA) Ill. Unit Mix One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Total IV. Number of Stories 5.00 Acres 103,250 SF 95% 5,434 SF 5% 108,684 SF 100% # of Units 25 Units 20% 62 Units 50% 38 Units 30% 125 Units 100% 3 Stories APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS Affordable Unit Size 550 SF 800 SF 1,050 SF 826 SF V. Density 25.0 Units/Acre VI. Construction Type VII. Parking Number of Spaces One Bedroom Two and Three Bedroom Visitor Total Parking Type Carport Spaces Surface Spaces Total Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 1.5 Spaces/Unit 2.0 Spaces/Unit 0.26 Spaces/Unit 1.0 Space/Unit TypeV 38 Spaces 200 Spaces 32 Spaces 270 Spaces 125 Spaces 145 Spaces 270 Spaces Filename i:\Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;Iag Page 81 APPENDIX II TABLE C-2 GARDEN APARTMENTS ESTIMATED DEVELOPMENT COSTS Affordable AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD 50%AMI 80%AMI Totals Per Unit Comments Totals Per Unit Comments I. Acquisition Costs $7,623,000 $61,000 $35 Per SF Site $7,623,000 $61,000 $35 Per SF Site II. Direct Costs (1) Off-Site Improvements (2) $653,000 $5,200 $3 Per SF Site $653,000 $5,200 $3 Per SF Site On-Sites/Landscaping $2,178,000 $17,400 $10 Per SF Site $2,178,000 $17,400 $10 Per SF Site Parking -Carport $250,000 $2,000 $2,000 Per Space $250,000 $2,000 $2,000 Per Space Shell Construction $13,586,000 $108,700 $125 Per SF GBA $13,586,000 $108,700 .$125 Per SF GBA FF&E/ Amenities $200,000 $1,600 Allowance $200,000 $1,600 Allowance Contingency $843,000 $6,700 5.0% of Directs $843,000 $6,700 5.0% of Directs Total Direct Costs $17,710,000 $141,700 $163 Per SF GBA $17,710,000 $141,700 $163 Per SF GBA Ill. Indirect Costs Architecture & Engineering $1,063,000 $8,500 6.0% of Directs $1,063,000 $8,500 6.0% of Directs Permits & Fees (3) $1,938,000 $15,500 $18 Per SF GBA $1,938,000 $15,500 $18 Per SF GBA Legal & Accounting $177,000 $1,400 1.0% of Directs $177,000 $1,400 1.0% of Directs Taxes & Insurance $266,000 $2,100 1.5% of Directs $266,000 $2,100 1.5% of Directs Developer Fee $2,500,000 $20,000 14.1% of Directs $708,000 $5,700 4.0% of Directs Marketing/Lease-Up $313,000 $2,500 Allowance $313,000 $2,500 Allowance Contingency $188,000 $1,500 3.0% of Indirects $134,000 $1,100 3.0% of Indirects Total Indirect Costs $6,445,000 $51,600 36.4% of Directs $4,599,000 $36,800 26.0% of Directs IV. Financing Costs $2,657,000 $21,300 15.0% of Directs $2,214,000 $17,700 12.5% of Directs V. Total Development Costs $34,435,000 $275,500 $317 Per SF GBA $32,146,000 $257,200 $296 Per SF GBA (1) Does not assume payment of prevailing wages. (2) KMA gross estimate. Not verified by KMA or the City. (3) Per City. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename: i: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;lag Page 82 TABLE C-3 NET OPERATING INCOME AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD 50%AMI I. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) One Bedroom @ 50% AMI One Bedroom @ 60% AMI One Bedroom @ 80% AMI Two Bedroom Two Bedroom Two Bedroom Th ree Bedroom Three Bedroom Th ree Bedroom Total/Average Add: Other Income @50%AMI @60%AMI @80%AMI @50%AMI @60%AMI @80%AMI Total Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) (Less) Vacancy Effective Gross Income (EGI) II. Operating Expenses (Less) Operating Expenses (Less) Property Taxes (Less) Replacement Reserves Total Expenses Ill. Net O eratin Income NOi 8 17 19 43 12 26 $/Month $710 $862 $850 $1,032 $977 $1,187 125 $741 $1S /Unit/Month 5.0% of GSI $5,000 /Unit/Year $0 /Unit/Year $250 /Unit/Year $5,248 /Unit/Year 60.9% of EGI (1) Assumes developer will partner with a non-profit organization. (2) Based on capitalized income approach; assumes a 1.0% tax rate and 5.5% cap rate. Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Filename i: \Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag $68,200 $175,800 $193,800 $532,500 $140,700 $370,300 $1,111,000 $22,500 $1,133,500 ($56.700) $1,076,800 ($625,000) $0 (1) ($31,000) ($656,000) $421,000 80%AMI $/Month 25 $1,085 62 $1,215 38 $1,342 125 $1,227 $15 /Unit/Month 5.0% of GSI $5,000 /Unit/Year $1,368 /Unit/Year $250 /Unit/Year $6,616 /Unit/Year 46.7% of EGI APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS Affordable $325,500 $903,800 $611,700 $1,841,000 $22,500 $1,863,500 ($93,200) $1,770,300 ($625,000) ($171,000) (2) ($31.000) ($827,000) $943 000 Page 83 TABLE C-4 FINANCING SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPACT FEE NEXUS STUDY CITY OF CARLSBAD I I. Sources of Funds Permanent Loan Market Value of Tax Credits Deferred Developer Fee Tot al Sources of Fu nds II. (Less) Development Costs Ill. Financing Surplus/(Deficit) Per Unit Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. 50%AMI $6,045,000 $11,094,000 $500,000 $17,639,000 ($34,435,000) ($16,796,000) ($134,000) Filename: Carlsbad_Nexus Study Update_Technical Analysis_v1;2/18/2016;1ag 80%AMI I. Capitalized Value Net Operating Income Capitalization Rate Capitalized Value II. (Less) Development Costs (Less) Cost of Sale (Less) Developer Profit Net Sales Proceeds 3.0% 10.0% APPENDIX II GARDEN APARTMENTS Affordable $943,000 5.5% $17,145,000 ($32,146,000) ($514,000) ($1,715,000) ($34,375,000) ($17,230,000) ($137,800) Page 84