HomeMy WebLinkAbout2019-08-20; City Council; ; Consideration of comments on the San Diego Association of Governments' draft 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment MethodologyCA Review iZ. t(_
~ CITY COUNCIL
~ Staff Report
Meeting Date:
To:
From:
Staff Contact:
Subject:
Aug.20,2019
Mayor and City Council
Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Debbie Fountain, Community & Economic Development Director
Debbie.fountain@carlsbadca.gov or 760-434-2935
Consideration of comments on the San Diego Association of Governments'
draft 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology
Recommended Action
Discuss and consider a minute motion to provide written or verbal comments to the San Diego
Association of Governments1 (SAN DAG) draft 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment
(RHNA) Methodology.
Executive Summary
As required by state law, cities and counties must plan for housing needs through periodic
updates to their housing elements. For the next 2021-2029 housing element planning period
(6th cycle), the Housing and Community Development Department (HCD) has determined that
the San Diego region needs to accommodate 171,685 total new housing units. Planning for the
next Housing Element update is underway by SANDAG, the regional planning agency. The new
RHNA must be completed and allocations must be made to each of the San Diego County
region1s 19 jurisdictions by Fall 2019 to allow local jurisdictions time to prepare their 6th cycle
Housing Elements and submit to HCD for approval by April 2021.
On July 26, 2019, the SANDAG Board of Directors released the draft RHNA Methodology and
justification for meeting RHNA objectives and factors as outlined in state law for public comment.
Written comments are due to SAN DAG by Aug. 21, 2019, in order to include them in the handouts
provided to the SAN DAG Board of Directors for the public hearing scheduled for August 23, 2019,
where a final decision on the draft methodology will be requested from the Board.
Attached as Exhibit 1 is the SANDAG Draft 6th Cycle RHNA Methodology which provides for
additional overview and explanation of the process and criteria for a RHNA allocation of housing
units to each jurisdiction for Housing Element planning purposes. Also attached for City Council
review as Exhibit 2 is the July 26, 2019 SANDAG Board staff report which provides additional
information on the process and related considerations for the draft methodology. A draft letter
of response to SANDAG's request for comments on the draft RHNA methodology is attached as
Exhibit 3 for discussion, consideration and direction.
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 1 of 42
Discussion
The RHNA is mandated by state law and accomplishes two goals; 1) it quantifies the need for
housing and 2) it informs land use planning in addressing identified existing and future housing
needs resulting from population, employment, and household growth. As the council of
governments, SANDAG is responsible for overseeing the RHNA process for the San Diego region
and its 19 jurisdictions.
In December 2018, the SAN DAG Board of Directors created the RHNA Subcommittee to provide
input and guidance to the SANDAG Board of Directors regarding the RHNA plan for San Diego
County and its 19 jurisdictions. The RHNA methodology was developed with input from this RHNA
Board Subcommittee who was also charged with making a recommendation to the ful l board on
the draft RHNA methodology and allocation to each jurisdiction. Development of the RHNA
methodology was also informed by input from the Regional Planning Technical Working Group
(TWG), Regional Planning Committee (RPC), the Board of Directors, and ultimately the public.
The State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determined in July, 2018
that the San Diego region would need to plan for 171,685 housing units. Since February, 2019
SANDAG staff have been working with the RHNA Subcommittee to develop an allocation
methodology to distribute housing needs in the region. State law requires the SANDAG housing
unit methodology to focus on five objectives; however, state law does not dictate how those
objectives should be prioritized. The five objectives are:
1. Increasing the supply and the mix of housing types, tenure, and affordability in all cities
and counties within the region in an equitable manner, which shall result in each
jurisdiction receiving an allocation of units for low-and very low-income households.
2. Promoting infill development and socioeconomic equity, the protection of environmental
and agricultural resources, the encouragement of efficient development patterns, and
the achievement of the region's greenhouse gas reductions targets provided by the State
Air Resources Board.
3. Promoting an improved intraregional relationship between jobs and housing, including
an improved balance between the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing
units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction.
4. Allocating a lower proportion of housing need to an income category when a jurisdiction
already has a disproportionately high share of households in that income category, as
compared to the countywide distribution of households in that category from the most
recent American Community Survey.
5. Affirmatively furthering fair housing.
After considerable discussion and consideration of the state's objectives, the RHNA
Subcommittee decided to focus on a framework that emphasized housing access to transit and
proximity to jobs centers, with adjustments for equity and jobs/housing ratio. Other factors that
the subcommittee considered were population share and whether to include total or civilian-
only employment in the jobs factor.
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 2 of 42
In the methodology, the RHNA Subcommittee provided direction on a 65%-35% weighting of
transit and total jobs, and to consider equity and jobs/housing ratio adjustments based on a
jurisdiction's variance from regional averages. Jurisdictions with higher relative household
incomes and/or higher jobs/housing ratios would receive an upward adjustment to the overall
and/or lower income housing share, while those jurisdictions with lower relative incomes and/or
jobs-to-housing ratios would receive downward adjustments. At their May 24, 2019, meeting,
the RHNA Subcommittee directed staff to also conduct additipnal analysis to account for military-
provrded housing and corresponding jobs to consider an exclusion of these housing units and
ultimately reduce the allocation for cities and the county who host military bases. After
continuing discussion on the methodology, the subcommittee recommended the methodology
summarized below but with a military exclusion for housing units located on a military base.
At the SANDAG Board Meeting on July 26, 2019, the Board approved the original staff
recommendation that included no military housing exclusion for release for a public comment
period. Attached as Exhibit 1 is a copy of the draft 6th Cycle RHNA Methodology; this draft
methodology is submitted for review by the City Council and has been noticed by SANDAG for
public comment. A summary of the draft methodology is noted below:
• 65% of the RHNA is to be distributed according to each jurisdiction's relative share of
transit stations, rapid bus stations, and major transit stops. Carlsbad has two of the
region's 154 rail and rapid bus stations, and none of the 140 major transit stops.
• 35% of the RHNA is to be distributed according to each jurisdiction's relative share of the
region's total jobs. Carlsbad has the region's third highest share of jobs (76,779 jobs or
4.76% of the region).
• An equity adjustment is applied to each jurisdiction's allocation such that more housing
units are allocated to an income category that is less than the regional average. Carlsbad's
household incomes are generally higher than the region overall, therefore resulting in
more allocation towards the lower income categories.
• No adjustment is made for jobs/housing balance. Carlsbad's job-to-housing ratio is 1.66
compared to the region's 1.39.
Please note that the above draft methodology does not include an exclusion for military base
housing. The SANDAG Board decided to approve the original methodology recommended by
staff, without the exclusion for military housing. The Board, however, reserved its right to
reconsider its approval of the draft methodology after review of the public input.
For each oft he 19 jurisdictions, housing need will be apportioned among four income categories:
Very Low, Low, Moderate, and Above Moderate. If the draft RHNA Methodology is ultimately
approved by SAN DAG and HCD, the housing allocation for Carlsbad will be as set forth below. For
comparison purposes, the current 5th cycle Carlsbad RHNA is also shown.
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 3 of 42
Carlsbad Allocation (proposed methodology):
Very Low Low Moderate Above Total Region
(::;SO% (51-80%) (81-120%) Moderate Total
AMI} (>120%}
Proposed 6th 1,310 784 750 1,029 3,873 171,685
Housing
Element Cycle
{2021-2029}
Current 5th 912 693 1,062 2,332 4,999 161,990
Housing
Element Cycle
(2013-2021)
Difference +398 +91 -312 -1,303 -1126 9,695
The table shows that, while the proposed (6th Cycle) allocation overall is less than the current (5th
Cycle) one, more units are allocated to the very-low and low income categories. This is due to the
proposed equity adjustment, which differs from the previous RHNA cycle. The implication here
is that Carlsbad would need to demonstrate it has enough higher density (at least 30+ dwelling
units per acre), multi-family land capacity to accommodate more than half of its RHNA share.
Implications for Carlsbad (draft methodology)
Preliminary analysis of the proposed RHNA allocations in relation to available Housing Element
sites in Carlsbad reveals a likely need to identify (and rezone) more sites to accommodate higher
density multi-family use for the next cycle. For purposes of this analysis, available sites are those
sites in the current Housing Element inventory less the sites that have since been developed, are
in construction (building permits issued), or have received a planning approval during the current
period. Comparing the estimated yield from available Housing Element sites · to the
recommended RHNA allocation (under the proposed RHNA methodology) reveals a potential
deficit of 1,062 units in the very-low and low income categories, and a lesser shortfall of 238 units
in the moderate and above moderate income categories.
Several recent changes to state law will complicate the city's efforts to develop a suitable sites
inventory for the next Housing Element update. Recent changes to "No Net Loss" provisions in
state law (Government Code Section 65863) now require cities to continually monitor the
adequacy of Housing Element sites not on ly by density but also by the income categories at which
housing projects are approved, and to identify additional sites to make up for any shortfall that
may occur. A problem could arise, for example, when above moderate, market rate residential
projects are approved on high density multi-family sites. To avoid repeated re-zoning efforts, a
recommended best practice is to build extra capacity into the Housing Elem.ent sites inventory to
account for approval of residential projects in an income category different than planned in the
sites inventory. Additionally, changes to Housing Element law will make it more of a challenge
than in the past to count certain sites (e.g. small infill or nonvacant redevelopment) as suitable
for development. For example, sites smaller than one-half acre and those larger than 10 acres
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 4 of 42
are presumed to be inappropriate for lower income housing unless the city can substantiate
otherwise to the satisfaction of HCD.
Another potentially complicating factor for the next Housing Element update is the city's local
Growth Management Plan. The city's ability to create additional housing capacity through density
increases (rezoning) is limited by Proposition E housing caps. As of June 1, 2019, there is the
potential to accommodate up to an additional 2,345 dwelling units beyond existing and planned
capacity citywide. However, that potential capacity is unevenly distributed among the city's
quadrants, being more limited in the Northwest (566 allocated to the Village and 127 unallocated
outside the Village) and Northeast (102) than in the Southwest (1,232) and Southeas·t (318).
Therefore, the quadrant caps will have a larger influence in developing the next Housing Element
sites inventory than in the past.
Fiscal Analysis
There is no fiscal impact as a result of the City Council's discussion and consideration of
comments to SANDAG on the draft RHNA methodology.
Next Steps
The draft RHNA methodology was released by SAN DAG for a public review and comment period
on July 26, 2019. Written comments to be included in the public hearing report for the SAN DAG
Board public hearing on August 23, 2019 must be received by SAN DAG staff by August 21, 2019.
On August 23rd, the SAN DAG Board will consider all public comments and then determine if any
changes need to be made to the methodology. After any revisions are made based on SANDAG
Board direction, SAN DAG must forward the draft methodology to HCD for review and tentative
approval. Within 60 days, HCD will review the draft methodology and provide any findings to
SANDAG.
Staff has prepared a draft letter of support for the proposed RHNA Methodology for City Council
consideration. If the City Council would like to consider an alternate position or make edits to the
letter to add comments, staff will receive that direction via minute motion and revise the letter
as appropriate or take alternate direction. The SANDAG Board will be asked to adopt a final
methodology in late 2019. At that time, a draft allocation showing the number and types of
housing units allocated to each jurisdiction based on the final a·dopted methodology will be
posted on SANDAG's website. The draft allocation will be distributed to the local jurisdictions and
HCD for an additional 45-day review by those entities. After the RHNA Plan is adopted, including
both methodology and the allocation, it will be incorporated into the Regional Transportation
Plan (RTP) for the region (2021 Regional Plan) and in the housing elements in each local
jurisdiction's general plan. The 6th Cycle Housing Elements must be adopted by April 2021.
In the coming weeks, city staff will release a Request for Proposals to solicit consultant services
to assist with preparing the city's 6th cycle Housing Element update. The SANDAG process to
allocate housing units is anticipated to be complete by the end of 2019; this allocation will guide
Carlsbad's efforts and land use policies to update its Housing Element.
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 5 of 42
Environmental Evaluation (CEQA)
This is a discussion item only. Pursuant to Public Resources Code section 21065, this action
does not constitute a "project" within the meaning of CEQA in that it has no potential to cause
either a direct physical change in the environment, or a reasonably foreseeable indirect
physical change in the environment, and therefore, does not require environmental review.
Public Notification and Outreach
This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for public
viewing and review at least 72 hours prior to scheduled meeting date.
Exhibits
1. Draft 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology, prepared by SAN DAG
2. SAN DAG Board of Directors Staff Report, Regional Housing Needs Assessment Draft
Methodology, dated July 26, 2019
3. Draft letter to SAN DAG Board
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 6 of 42
Table of Contents
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
Draft Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology ........................................................................... 2
Underlying Data and Assumptions ............................................................... : ............................................... 3
Proximity to Transit ................................................................................................................................... 3
Proximity to Jobs ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Equity Adjustment .............................................................................................................. _. ..................... 6
Local Government Conditions ............................................................................................................... : ....... 8
Board of Directors ..................................................................................................................................... 9
Regional Housing Needs Assessment Subcommittee ............................................................................... 9
Regional Planning Technical Working Group ............................................................................................ 9
Regional Planning Committee ................................................................................................................. 10
Regional Housing Needs Assessment Objectives and Factors .................................................................... 10
Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 10
Factcirs ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 8 of 42
Overview
On July 5, 2018, the State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determined the
San Diego region would need to plan for 171,685 housing units (Regional Housing Needs Assessment
[RHNA] Determination) during the 6th Housing Element Cycle (2021-2029). As the council of governments
forthe San Diego region, the San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG) is responsible for developing
a methodology for allocating the regional housing need among the region's 19 jurisdictions. The
methodology must distribute each jurisdiction's housing unit allocation among the four income categories -
low, very-low, moderate, and above moderate -and further the objectives set forth in state law.
State housing element law requires SAN DAG to provide a discussion of the draft methodology that includes the
data and assumptions relied upon, and an explanation of how information about local government conditions and
how each of the factors required by law was used to develop the draft methodology. (See Government Code
Section 65584.04.) SANDAG must also describe how the draft methodology would further the five objectives in
Govern ment Code Section 65584. This document is meant to provide the information required by statute to assist
the public in understanding the basis for the draft methodology.
State law also prohibits consideration of certain criteria. The following justifications have not been used in
development of the draft methodology and cannot be the basis for a determination of a jurisdiction's share of the
regional housing need:
1. Any ordinance, policy, voter-approved measure, or standard of a city or county that directly or indirectly
limits the number of residential building permits issued by a city or county.
2. Prior underproduction of housing in a city or county from the previous regional housing need allocation.
3. Stable population numbers in a city or county from the previous regional housing needs cycle.
In addition to state housing element law, state law associated with development of Regional Transportation
Plans (RTPs) requires that there be consistency between transportation planning, development of housing,
and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. (Government Code Sections 65080 and 65584.) Increa sed
use of public transportation leads to reduced GHG em issions compared to driving alone. This is why the draft
methodology was developed with an eye toward maximizing access between public transportation and all
housing types.
Following the public comment period, and the public hearing planned for August 23, 2019, the SANDAG
Board of Directors will determine whether to make changes to the draft methodology. After any revisions are
made to the draft methodology as a result of comments received, SAN DAG must forward the draft
methodology to HCD. Within 60 days, HCD will review the draft methodology and provide any findings to
SANDAG. The Board will be asked to adopt a final methodology in late 2019. At that time, a draft allocation
showing the number and types of housing units allocated to each jurisdiction based on the final adopted
methodology will be posted on SANDAG's website. The draft allocation will be distributed to the local
jurisdictions and HCD for an additional 45-day review by those entities. After the RHNA Plan, including both
the methodology and the allocation, is adopted it will be incorporated in the RTP for the region (2021
Regional Plan) and in the housing elements in each local jurisdiction's general plan.
Draft Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology
1. Sixty-five percent of the total housing units will be allocated to jurisdictions with access to
transit, including rail stations, Rapid bus stations, and major transit stops. Significant investments
in transit have been made throughout the region, and the draft methodology prioritizes housing growth
in those areas with access to transit. Encouraging housing growth near transit can promote infill
development and preserve open space, as most transit is located in urbanized areas. Improved access to
transit also can lower the vehicle miles traveled in a car and reduce GHG gas emissions.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regiona l Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 2
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 9 of 42
2. Within the housing units allocated for jurisdictions with access to transit, 75 percent of the
units will be allocated to jurisdictions with rail stations and Rapid bus stations and 25 percent
will be allocated to jurisdictions with major transit stops. To ensure future growth is located near
transit, the draft methodology prioritizes 75 percent of the housing units in areas with rail and Rapid bus
stations. Rail stations and Rapid bus stations usually are located along fixed routes that require significant
capital investment to construct. Unlike bus stops or routes, rail and Rapid stations and routes are not
amended or eliminated on a regular basis.
The remaining 25 percent of the housing units will be allocated in jurisdictions with major transit stops.
Major transit stops, as defined in state law, have two intersecting bus routes that arrive at 15-minute
intervals during peak commute hours.
3. Thirty-five percent of the total housing units will be allocated to jurisdictions based on the
total number of jobs in their jurisdiction. This portion of the methodology was included to address
the objectives of promoting infill and improving the intraregional relationship between jobs and housing,
jurisdictions should plan for housing to provide opportunities for more residents to live near their place of
employment.
4. The allocation applies an equity adjustment. The HCD's RHNA Determination divided the number of
housing units needed in the region into four income categories based on the region's current
percentages of households in each income category. To promote equity and fair housing, the draft
methodology allocates more housing units of an income category to jurisdictions with a percentage of
households in that category that is lower than the regional percentage.
Underlying Data and Assumptions
Th.ere are three components of the draft methodology: proximity to transit, proximity to jobs, and the equity
adjustment The underlying data and assumptions used in each component are discussed below.
Proximity to Transit
Sixty-five percent of the RHNA Determination, or 111,595 housing units, will be allocated based on proximity
to transit Because most transit infrastructure is located in the urbanized areas of the San Diego region,
heavily weighting proximity to transit will promote infill development, preserve open space, lower-vehicle
miles traveled, and reduce GHG emissions.
Proximity to transit is further defined by each jurisdiction's share of Rail & Rapid Stations and Major Transit
Stops, which are described below.
■ Rail & Rapid (R&R) Stations: Stations served by rail (North County Transit District [NCTD] COASTER; NCTD
SPRINTER; and Metropolitan Transit System [MTS] Trolley, including planned Mid-Coast stations) and
Rapid bus routes (NCTD BREEZE Route 350; MTS Rapid Routes 215, 225, and 235; and MTS Rapid
Express Routes 280 and 290).
■ Major Transit Stops: The intersection of two or more major local bus routes with a frequency of service ·
interval of 15 minutes or less during the morning and afternoon peak commute periods.
Seventy-five percent of the proximity to transit housing units, or 83,696 housing units, will be allocated based
on each jurisdiction's share of R&R Stations, while 25 percent, or 27,899 housing units, will be allocated
based on each jurisdiction's share of Major Transit Stops. This reflects the significant investment the region
has made to build and improve rail lines and Rapid routes as well as the permanency of rail lines relative to
local bus service. Additionally, rail and Rapid routes have higher capacities and are among the more popular
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 3
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 10 of 42
transportation services in the region. Therefore, the draft methodology assumes these services can have a
larger impact on changing commute behavior and achieving mode shift goals.
Data Source
The data source for proximity to transit is the SAN DAG Activity Based Model (ABM). For R&R stations,
SANDAG ABM Forecast Year 2025 No Build was used in order to capture the Mid-Coast Trolley stations
currently under construction and anticipated to be open for service to the public by 2021 . For major transit
stops, SAN DAG ABM Forecast Year 2020 was used as the specific data source to align with the start of the
6th Housing Element Cycle planning period.
For Rapid Stations and major transit stops that have stops on either side of the road, which correspond to
northbound/southbound or eastbound/westbound travel, stop pairs were counted as one station or stop.
Stations that serve more than one rail and/or Rapid route were counted once in the R&R data. For example,
the Oceanside Transit Center, which is served by two rail lines (NCTD COASTER and NCTD SPRINTER),
accounts for only one of the seven R&R stations in Oceanside. Some R&R stations are also considered major
transit stops because they are also served by two or more bus lines with 15-minute frequencies during peak
commute. The Old Town Transit Center in the City of San Diego, for example, is both a R&R station (served
by the NCTD COASTER and MTS Trolley) and major transit stop (served by MTS Bus routes 10, 30, 35, and
44, which have 15-minute peak period frequencies).
The data underlying the proximity to transit component is included in Table 1.
Table 1: Proximity to Transit Data
Jurisdiction
Rail & Rapid Stations Major Transit Stops
Count Regiona l Share(%) Count Regional Share (%)
Carlsbad 2 1.3% 0 0.0%
Chula Vista 9 5.8% 18 12.9%
Coronado 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Del Mar 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
El Cajon 3 1.9% 0 0.0%
Encinitas 1 0.6% 0 0.0%
Escondido 14 9.1% 0 0.0%
Imperia l Beach 0 0.0% 6 4.3%
La Mesa 5 3.2% 0 0.0%
Lemon Grove 2 1.3% 0 0.0%
National City 2 1.3% 15 10.7%
Oceanside 7 4.5% 0 0.0%
Poway 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
San Diego 100 64.9% 101 72 .1%
San Marcos 3 1.9% 0 0.0%
Santee 1 0.6% 0 0.0%
Solana Beach 1 0.6% 0 0.0%
Unincorporated County 2 1.3% 0 0.0%
Vista 2 1.3% 0 0.0%
Region· 154 100.0% 140 100.0%
Sources: R&R Stations -SANDAG ABM, Forecast Year 2025 No Build1; Major Transit Stops -SANDAG ABM, Forecast
. Year 20202
1 SANDAG ABM, Forecast Year 2025 No Build, Release v14.0.1 , Reference Scenario #242, January 2019.
2 SANDAG ABM, Forecast Year 2020, Release v14.0.1 , Reference Scenario #243, January 2019.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology J 4
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 11 of 42
Proximity to Jobs
Thirty-five percent of the RHNA Determination, or 60,090 units, w ill be allocated based on proximity to jobs.
Proximity to jobs considers the number of jobs in each jurisdiction.
Data Source
Th e data source for proximity to jobs is the SAN DAG Employment Estimates, which are also being used to
develop the latest Regional Growth Forecast. SANDAG Employment Estimates are derived from Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from the Economic Development Department (EDD) and the
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data from the
Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau. The LODES data combines federal, state, and Census
Bureau survey data on employers and employees and SANDAG uses the QCEW dataset for its detailed
geographic information on businesses to geolocate "job spaces " throughout the region. Then LODES data
(average of the last five years), which are available at the census block level, are used to fill the job spaces to
determine total jobs within various geographies. SAN DAG Employment Estimates are also supplemented by
other data sources including the San Diego Military Advisory Council (SDMAC) and Defense Manpower Data
Center (DMDC). Of note, SD MAC and DMDC assign jobs associated with a Navy ship to the installation that
is the ship's homeport. Finally, the jobs data are validated against published job totals for the County from
the EDD Labor Market Information's yearly data.
The proximity to jobs data consists of all job types and includes jobs that are classified as a primary source of
income_, which can be part-time or full-time, year-round or seasonal. The data underlying the proximity to
jobs component is included in Table 2.
Table 2: Proximity to Jobs Data
Jurisdiction Total Jobs Regional Share
(%)
Carl sbad 76,779 4.6%
Chula Vista 72,403 4.4%
Coronado 27,594 1.7 %
Del Mar 4,484 0.3%
El Cajon 45,468 2.7%
Encinitas 27,871 1.7%
Escond ido 55,059 3.3%
Imperial Beach 4,936 0.3%
La Mesa 29,773 1.8%
Lemon Grove 7,492 0.5%
National City 37,497 2.3%
Oceanside 45,1 78 2.7%
Poway 36,349 2.2%
San Diego 921,054 55 .6%
San Marcos 40,964 2.5%
Santee 18,634 1.1%
Solana Beach 9,151 0.6%
Unincorporated County 154,686 9.3%
Vista 40,629 2.5%
Region 1,656,001 100.0%
Source: SANDAG Employment Estimates and/or SANDA G 2019
Regional Growth Forecast; US Department of Defense
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 5
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 12 of 42
Equ ity Adjustment
In addition to distributing the RHNA Determination among jurisdictions, SANDAG must distribute units for
each jurisdiction among the four income categories defined by HCD. Each income category is defined as a
range of household incomes that represents a percentage of the area median income (AMI). The AMI for the
San Diego region is $66,529, as provided by HCD. Table 3 provides the definition for each income category
and the income ranges for San Diego region households per category.
Table 3: Income Categories
Income Category Definition
Ver Low Less than 50% of AMI
Low 50-80% of AMI
Moderate 80-120% of AMI
Above Moderate Over 120% of AMI
Income Range*
$33,259 or less
$33,260 -$53,219
$53,220 -$79,829
$79,830 or more
Percent of Regional Households
(RHNA Determination)
24.7%
15.5%
17.3%
42.5%
Source: HCD Determination Letter; 201 2-2016 America n Community Survey 5-Year, DP03
Household income data was used to determine the number of households per category in each jurisdiction
and subsequently each jurisdiction's percentage breakdown of households per category, which is included in
Table 4. The jurisdictional percentages were then compared to the regional percentages for each income
category to determine a multiplier, which is an "adjustment" toward the regional percentages.
A jurisdiction's multiplier for a given income category is applied to the total RHNA units allocated to the
jurisdiction to determine how many of its total RHNA units are allocated to that income category.
Jurisdictions that have a higher percentage of existing households in a given income category than the region
receive a downward adjustment toward the regional percentage, which results in a smaller share of the
allocated housing units within that income category than if no adjustment were applied. Jurisdictions that
have a lower percentage of households in a given income category than the region receive an upward
adjustment toward the regional percentage, which results in a greater share of the allocated housing units
within that income category than if no adjustment were applied.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 6
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 13 of 42
Ta ble 4: Households per Income Category
Total Existing Households by Income Category
Jurisdiction Households Above Very Low % Low % Moderate % Moderate %
Carlsbad 42,926 6,981 16.3% 4,644 10.8% 5,940 13.8% 25,360 59 .1 %
Chula Vista 77,804 19,459 25.0% 11,987 15.4% 13,643 17.5% 32,715 42 .0%
Coronado 8,986 1,506 16.8% 1,1 09 12.3% 1,442 16.1% 4,929 54.9%
Del Mar 2,258 430 19.0% 102 4.5% 248 11 .0% 1,478 65.5%
El Cajon 32,937 12,434 37.8% 5,754 17.5% 5,615 17.0% 9,135 27.7%
Encinitas 23,695 4,287 18.1% 2,168 9.2% 3,182 13.4% 14,058 59 .3%
Escondido 45,217 13,880 30.7% 8,239 18.2% 8,245 18.2 % 14,853 32 .8%
Imperial Beach 9,044 2,888 31.9% 2,105 23.3% 1,726 19.1% 2,325 25 .7%
La Mesa 23,767 6,368 26.8% 4,468 18.8% 4,609 19.4% 8,322 35.0%
Lemon Grove 8,465 2,316 27.4% 1,643 19.4% 1,730 20.4% 2,776 32 .8%
Nationa l City 15,870 6,436 40.6% 3,271 20.6% 2,848 17.9% 3,3 15 20.9%
Oceanside 61,480 16,148 26.3% 11,348 18.5% 11,297 18.4% 22,687 36.9%
Poway 15,797 2,418 15.3% 1,675 10.6% 2,281 14.4% 9,422 59 .6%
San Diego 490,219 119,014 24.3% 75,283 15.4% 82,616 16.9% 213,305 43.5%
San Marcos 29,125 7,707 26.5% 4,212 14.5% 5,043 17.3% 12,163 41 .8%
Santee 19,517 3,493 17.9% 2,812 14.4% 3,683 18.9% 9,528 48.8%
Solana Beach 5,750 883 15.4% 698 12.1% 854 .14.9% 3,315 57.7%
Unincorporated County 159,642 35,996 22.5% 26,493 16 .6% 27,598 17.3% 69,555 43.6%
Vista 30,629 9,016 29.4% 5,746 18.8% 6,112 20.0% 9,754 31.8%
Region 1,103,128 271,661 24.6% 173,760 ' 15.8% 188,713 17.1% 468,995 42.5%
Source: 2012-2016 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year, B 19001 "Household Income In The Past 12 Months (In 2016 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars)"
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 7
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 14 of 42
Table 5 below shows this inverse relationship by using plus(+) and minus(-) signs in the Adjustment (Adjust.)
column. The regional percentages of household per income category are included in the first row and shaded
in blue. The jurisdictions' percentages of household per income category are included in the "Percent of
Households" (% of HH) and shaded in grey.
Table 5: Determining an Equity Adjustment
Region Very Low . 24.7% Low 15.5%
Jurisdiction % of HH Adjust. % of HH Adjust.
Carlsbad 16.3% + 10.8% +
Chu la Vista 25.0% -15.4% +
Coronado 16.8% + 12 .3% +
Del Mar 19.0% + 4.5% +
El Ca jon 37.8% -17.5% -
Encinitas 18.1% + 9.2% +
Escondido 30.7% -18 .. 2% -
Imperial Beach 31.9% -23.3% -
La Mesa 26.8% -18.8% -
Lemon Grove 27.4% -19.4% -
National City 40.6% -20.6% -
Oceanside 26.3% I -18.5% -
Poway 15.3% + 10.6% +
San Dieqo 24.3% + '15.4% +
San Marcos 26.5% -14.5% +
Santee 17.9% + 14.4% +
Solana Beach 15.4% + 12.1% +
Unincorporated 22 .5% + 16.6% -I
Vista 29.4% -18.8% -
Source: 2012-2016 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year, 819001
. Data Source
Moderate 17.3% Above
Mod.
% of HH Adjust. % of HH
13.8% + 59 .1 %
17.5% -42.0%
16.1% + 54.9%
11.0% + 65.5%
17.0% + 27.7%
13.4% + 59 .3%
18.2% -32.8%
19.1 % -25.7%
19.4% -35.0%
20.4% -32 .8%
17 .. 9% -20.9%
18.4% -36.'9%
14.4% + 59 .6%
16 .. 9% + 43.5%
17'.3% + 41.8%
18 .. 9% -48.8%
14.9% + 57.7%
17 .3% + 43.6%
20.0% -31.8%
SANDAG used data from the 2012-2016 ACS 5-Year, Table B19001 "Household Income In The Past
42.5%
Adjust.
-
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
-
-
+
12 Months (In 2016 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars)" to determine the jurisdictions' household breakdovvn among
income categories. This dataset was also used by HCD to calculate the unit distribution across income
category for the San Diego region's RHNA Determination.
Local Government Conditions
The draft methodology was developed with input and recommendation from the Board of Directors, RHNA
Subcommittee (a subcommittee of the SANDAG Board), the TWG (including planning directors from each
jurisdiction and housing stakeholders), the SANDAG Regional Planning Committee (a policy advisory
committee of the Board), and public stakeholders. Several meetings were held with each stakeholder group
and meetings were open to the public. Attendees at each meeting provided information regarding the types
of data SANDAG should use, assumptions that should be made, as well as information regarding conditions
in their individual jurisdictions that should be taken into consideration. Jurisdictions and stakeholders also
provided written comments during the process.
There was general consensus at the meetings that the approach chosen should keep the draft methodology
simple and easy to explain to the public. Nuanced adjustments that may have modified the methodology in
marginal ways in relation to the overall objectives and factors were discussed and considered. Factors and
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 8
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 15 of 42
adjustments that would have created a complicated formula, however, ultimately were not pursued since the
draft methodology was developed with the intent to keep it transparent and understandable.
A discussion of each stakeholder group and their major contributions to the development of the draft
methodology is included below.
Board of Directors
At its September 14, 2018, meeting, the Board was surveyed to determine each member jurisdiction's
priorities for the upcoming RHNA cycle, including which RHNA objectives and factors would be most
important when determining the distribution of housing units in the region. The member jurisd ictions
requested that their initial set of priorities be further discussed by the TWG, which consists of the planning or
community development director from each jurisdiction, among other members. The Board also directed the
formation of a RHNA Subcommittee to review and provide input and guidance on potential policy and
technical options for developing the RHNA methodology for allocation of housing units to each jurisdiction in
the RHNA Plan . The Board received an update on the preliminary methodology in May 201 _9 and approved
the release of this draft methodology for public comment at its July 26, 2019, meeting.
Regional Housing Needs Assessment Subcommittee
In December 2018, the Board formed the RHNA Subcommittee, which was comprised of Board members
from each SANDAG subregion to reflect the diversity of geography, jurisdiction size, and other attributes of
member jurisdictior.:is. To develop its recommendation, the RHNA Subcommittee explored options for how to
build consensus around a RHNA methodology that complies with state law while best achieving the goals of
the Board. The RHNA Subcommittee held six meetings prior to the Board release of the draft methodology.
All meetings were open to the public. Critical direction provided by the RHNA Subcommittee included the
following:
• Create a narrative around housing that promotes regional unity in addressing the housing need;
■ Establish a framework that incorporates "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs" to further the
objective of increasing transit use, reducing vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions, and relieving
traffic congestion
■ Include an equity adjustment to ensure the allocation furthered fair housing and increased affordability in
all cities and the County of San Diego
■ Evaluate opportunities for the military installations within the region to provide housing for military and
their families
Regional Planning Technical Working Group
The TWG is a SANDAG working group that consists of the planning or community development director from
each jurisdiction and representatives from other single-purpose regional agencies, such as the transit
operators. The TWG advises the Regional Planning Committee and Board on the development and
implementation of San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan, which includes, and must be consistent with,
the RHNA plan. The TWG discussed and provided input on the development of the draft methodology at 11
meetings, including two workshops specifically focused on RHNA.
Information on local government conditions provided by TWG members ihcluded:
• Preserved open space, agricultural lands, and airports an~d associated safety zones
• Universities and community colleges
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 9
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 16 of 42
■ Military installations
■ Low-wage jobs
• · Voter requirements
Feedback provided by TWG members for which there was general consensus that was incorporated into the
draft methodology included:
• Prioritizing proximity to transit, with greater weight given to major transit investments (R&R stations) over
local bus service
■ Improving the job-housing relationship
• Encouraging the development of a mix of housing types across the region and addressing historical
patterns of inequity in housing development
Regional Planning Committee
The Regional Planning Committee (RPC) is one of the SAN DAG policy advisory committees, which provides
oversight for the preparation and implementation of San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan . The
RPC discussed the RHNA process at two of their meetings.
Information on local government conditions provided by RPC members included:
• Airport safety zones
• Housing development opportunities at major employment centers
• Sea level rise
Feedback received from the RPC that informed the development of the draft methodology included:
• Aligning priorities for the RHNA methodology with priorities adopted by jurisdictions through other
planning efforts such as climate action plans
Regional Housing Needs Assessment Objectives and Factors
Objectives
The draft methodology and allocation furthers the five objectives listed in Government Code Section 65584.
7. Increasing the housing supply and the mix of housing types, tenure, and affordability in all cities and
counties within the region in an equitable manner, which shall result in each jurisdiction receiving an
allocation of units for low-and very /ow-income households.
Per state law, the draft methodology allocates units in all four income categories to each of the region's
19 jurisdictions. The draft methodology does so equitably, ensuring each jurisdiction receives an
allocation for low-and very low-income units, and further, allocating a higher share of low-and very-low
units to jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and very low-income households than the ·
regional share. State law requires jurisdictions to zone at higher densities to accommodate its low-and
very low-income housing allocation. As jurisdictions plan for and build housing, the mix of housing types
will increase.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 10
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 17 of 42
2. Promoting infill development and socioeconomic equity, the protection of environmental and agricultural
resources, the encouragement of efficient development patterns, and the achievement of the region's
GHG gas reductions targets provided by the State Air Resources Board pursuant to Section 65080.
The draft methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs" to encourage efficient
development patterns and reduce GHG emissions. By allocating housing units based on these two
factors, SANDAG sets a guiding principle for local jurisdictions to zone and build housing near transit and
jobs. Transit and job centers are located in the urbanized areas of the region. Therefore, an allocation
based on the proximity of transit and jobs will lead to more infill development while protecting natural
resources and open space. Because infill development does not rely on available space and can occur in
areas that already have a dense population, the draft methodology supports provision of housing even in
areas that are currently considered built-out.
SANDAG's GHG reduction target, as set by the California Air Resources Board, is to reduce the region's
per capita emissions of GHG from cars and light trucks by 15 percent by 2020, compared with a 2005
baseline. By 2035, the target is to reduce GHG emissions by 19 percent per capita. The draft
methodology encourages the development of housing near jobs and transit, which will provide the
region's residents with opportunities to live where they work and/or readily access transit, which can
facilitate shorter commutes, reduce vehicle miles traveled, and increase trip-taking by transit or
alternative modes.
3. Promoting an improved intraregional relationship between jobs and housing, including an improved
balanEe between the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-wage
workers in each jurisdiction.
SANDAG conducted an analysis of the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units
affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction. The analysis shows that the number of low-wage
jobs far exceeds the number of existing housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each
jurisdiction.
The draft methodology allocates 35 percent of the 171,685-unit regional housing need based on each
jurisdiction's share of existing regional total jobs to encourage development of housing near job centers
so that jurisdictions can improve the jobs-housing relationship.
The draft methodology's Equity Adjustment (see Objective 4) also improves the balance between the
number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each
jurisdiction by allocating a higher share of low-and very low-income housing units to jurisdictions that
currently have a smaller share of low-and very low-income households than the regional share.
4. Allocating a lower proportion of housing need to an income category when a jurisdiction already has a
disproportionately high share of households in that income category, as compared to the countywide
distribution of households in that category from the most recent ACS.
This objective guided the development of the Equity Adjustment used to ensure the draft methodology
will result in allocation of housing units to each of the income categories. This adjustment results in a
jurisdiction receiving a lower proportion of its total housing units within an income category when it has
a higher share of households within that income category compared to the region. This method shifts
units across income categories, rather than adding units to a jurisdiction's total housing unit allocation,
allowing for a mix of housing types and affordability near transit and jobs.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 11 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 18 of 42
5. Affirmatively furthering fair housing. For purposes of this section, "affirmatively furthering fair housing"
means taking meaningful actions, in addition to combating discrimination, that overcome patterns of
segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based
on protected characteristics. Specifically, affirmatively furthering fair housing means taking meaningful
actions that, taken together, address significant disparities in housing needs and in access to opportunity,
replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns, transforming
racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity, and fostering and
maintaining compliance with civil rights and fair housing laws.
During development of the draft methodology, SAN DAG reviewed the California Tax Credit Allocation
Committee (TCAC) 2019 Opportunity Map for the San Diego region. The TCAC map demonstrates how
public and private resources are spatially distributed within the region. The map is part of a larger study
that shows how communities w ith better air quality, higher educational attainment, and better economic
indicators are communities that have higher "opportunity", or pathways that offer low-income children
and adults the best chance at economic advancement. The study finds that historically communities with
higher opportunity-through plans, policies, and practices -may have systematically denied equal
opportunity to low socioeconomic and minority populations.
Areas of "low resource" and "high segregation & poverty" on the TCAC maps are also many of the
same areas with a high concentration of low-income households in the San Diego region. The Equity
Adjustment within the draft methodology addresses the disparities in access to resource-rich areas by
providing housing opportunities for people in all income levels to reside in any given community. This is
meant to foster and maintain compliance with civil rights and fair housing laws. The Equity Adjustment in
the draft methodology assists in overcoming patterns of discrimination and transforming racially and
ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity by allocating a higher proportion of
low-income housing units to jurisdictions with a lower share of low-income households, which tend to
be jurisdictions with a high concentration of resource-rich areas.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology 12 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 19 of 42
SANDAG analyzed the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-
wage workers in each jurisdiction. The analysis showed that the number of low-wage jobs far exceeds
the number of existing housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction. The draft
methodology is expected to increase the supply of affordable housing by allocating each jurisdiction low-
and very low-income housing units. The draft methodology's Equity Adjustment (see Objective 4) should
also improve the balance between the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units
affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction by allocating a higher share of low-and very low-
income housing units to jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and very low-income
households than the regional share.
2. The opportunities and constraints to development of additional housing in each member jurisdiction,
including all of the following:
a. Lack of capacity for sewer or water service due to federal or state laws, regulations or regulatory
actions, or supply and distribution decisions made by a sewer or water service provider other than
the local jurisdiction that preclude the jurisdiction from providing necessary infrastructure for
additional development during the planning period.
SANDAG notes that general plans for some jurisdictions may account for constraints to housing
development arising from lack of capacity for sewer or water service. For example, rural areas may rely
more heavily on well water and septic systems, which constrains housing development due to lack of
sufficient infrastructure. For the draft methodology, however, "proximity to transit" factor allocates
housing units based on each jurisdiction's share of regional rail and Rapid bus stations as well as major
transit stops. Rail and Rapid bus stations are located in the region's more developed areas where land
uses generate enough ridership to support the investment to the transit infrastructure. Major transit stops
also are located in the region's urbanized areas and surrounded by land uses that support higher service
frequencies. By prioritizing transit connectivity, the draft methodology encourages infill development in
urban areas that are likely to have existing capacity for sewer or water service.
b. The availability of land suitable for urban development or for conversion to resfdential use, the
availability of underutilized land, and opportunities for infill development and increased residential
densities. The council of governments may not limit its consideration of suitable housing sites or land
suitable for urban development to existing zoning ordinances and land use restrictions of a locality
but shall consider the potential for increased residential development under alternative zoning
ordinances and land use restrictions. The determination of available land suitable for urban
development may exclude lands where the Federal Emergency Management Agency or the
Department of Water Resources has determined that the flood management infrastructure designed
to protect that land is not adequate to avoid the risk of flooding.
The draft methodology is not constrained by existing zoning ordinances and land use restrictions.
Instead the draft methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs", which aligns
with several beneficial land use planning principles, such as promoting infill and increasing residential
densities. The availability of land su itable for urban development or for conversion to residential use,
the availability of underutilized land, and opportunities for infill development and increased
residential densities are accounted for due to the draft methodology's use of the proximity to jobs
and transit factors. When development of housing is promoted near transit and jobs in areas that are
already more densely populated and developed than other areas of each jurisd iction, it allows the
jurisd ictions to focus on infill development that can occur without reliance on the availability of
additional land, but instead on underutilized land that can be converted to uses that allow for
increased residential density.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regiona l Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 14 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 21 of 42
d. County policies to preserve prime agricultural land, as defined pursuant to Section 56064, within an
unincorporated and land within an unincorporated area zoned or designated for agricultural
protection or preservation that is subject to a local ballot measure that was approved by the voters of
that jurisdiction that prohibits or restricts its conversion to non-agricultural uses.
The County of San Diego General Plan accounts for some constraints to housing development arising
from policies to preserve prime agricultural land and incorporates local ballot mea~ure provisions
prohibiting or restricting the conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural uses. ThIe draft
methodology allocates housing units based on access to jobs and transit, which are located in
existing urbanized areas. Therefore, this constraint is not expected to impact the draft methodology's
capacity to allow for development of additional housing.
3. The distribution of household growth assumed for purposes of a comparable period of regional
transportation plans and opportunities to maximize the use of public transportation and existing
transportation infrastructure.
As shown in Figure 3.1, plans for growth are focused on the urbanized areas of the region. The draft
methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" as a factor -specifically high-quality transit, which is
located in the urbanized area. The emphasis on proximity to transit allows local jurisdictions that have
invested in transit the opportunity to maximize the use of existing transportation infrastructure.
4. Agreements between a county and cities in a county to direct growth toward incorporated areas of the
county, and land within an unincorporated area zoned or designated for agricultural protection or
preservation that is subject to a local ballot measure that was approved by the voters of the jurisdiction
that prohibits or restricts conversion to non-agricultural uses.
Regional planning undertaken by SANDAG and its member agencies during the past 15 to 20 years, has
focused the region's growth in the western third of the region, primarily in its incorporated cities and
near transit service (Figure 3.1 ). SANDAG has funded "smart growth" grants to encourage growth in_
incorporated areas of the county with sufficient density to support transit-oriented development.
Consistent with this, the draft methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs".
High-quality transit service and a high concentration of the region's jobs are located in the urbanized,
incorporated areas of the region. Thus, the draft methodology is consistent with agreements between
SANDAG, the County of San Diego, and the cities to develop public transportation infrastructure and
supporting land uses away from areas that are zoned or designated for agricultural protection or
preservation. lnterjurisdictional agreements may account for some development constraints; however,
those agreements are not expected to be in conflict with the draft methodology due to the prioritization
of proximity to transit and jobs.
5. The loss of units contained in assisted housing developments, as defined in paragraph (9) of subdivision
(a) of Section 65583, that changed to non-low-income use through mortgage prepayment, subsidy
contract expirations, or termination of use restrictions.
The data for these units is not readily available and varies by jurisdiction . The loss of assisted housing
developments for lower income households is an issue that should be addressed by the jurisdictions
when preparing their housing elements.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 17
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 24 of 42
6. The percentage of existing households at each of the income levels listed in subdivision (e) of
Section 65584 that are paying more than 30 percent and more than 50 percent of their income in rent.
This factor was not included in state law at the time the HCD was making its determination on the
regional housing need of the San Diego region, and sufficient data for this factor is not readily available.
The San Diego region received its largest RHNA Determination this cycle, however, and it is expected that
an influx of housing units in each income category will help alleviate the rent burden in the region.
7. The rate of overcrowding.
HCD used the 2012-2016 ACS to determine the rate of overcrowding in the San Diego region when
making its RHNA Determination. HCD then compared the San Diego region's overcrowding rate (6.43%
of all households) to the national rate (3.34% of all households). To address the needs of overcrowding
in the region, HCD's RHNA Determination included an overcrowding adjustment of 3.09 percent, which
added 38,700 housing units to the regional housing need to alleviate overcrowding in the region. Thus,
this factor has already been accounted for in the draft methodology.
8. The housing needs of farmworkers.
The draft methodology prioritizes "proximity to jobs" as a factor in allocating the regional housing need.
Farmworkers are included in the data on existing jobs. Therefore, their housing needs along with the
housing needs of all the region's workers are considered.
The draft methodology increases the supply of affordable housing by allocating each jurisdiction low-
and very low-income housing units. The draft methodology's Equity Adjustment (see Objective 4) also
improves the balance between the number of low-wage jobs, including farming jobs, and the number of
housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction by allocating a higher share of low-
and very low-income housing units to jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and very
low-income households than the regional share. Although the low-income housing needs of
farmworkers are unique given their low wages and job locations, the allocation expected from the draft
methodology is expected to provide more low-income housing in every jurisdiction and accordingly
should provide farmworkers the ability to live in more areas of the region and commute shorter distances
to their seasonal jobs.
9. The housing needs generated by the presence of a private university or a campus of the California State
University or the University of California within any member jurisdiction.
The major universities and community colleges in the San Diego region are located in urban areas served
by the existing transportation network. Th e City of San Diego is home to San Diego State University;
University of California San Diego; University of San Diego; Point Loma Nazarene University; various
smaller, private universities; and three community colleges: San Diego City College, San Diego Mesa
College, and San Diego Miramar College. It also has the greatest share of the region's transportation
system in part because of transportation investments near universities and colleges located within its
jurisdiction.
Similarly, the cities of Chula Vista (Southwestern Community College), El Cajon (Cuyamaca College),
Oceanside (Mira Costa College), and San Marcos (California State University San Marcos and Palomar
College) have made transportation investments to improve access to transit near colleges and
universities. By prioritizing transit proximity, the draft methodology encourages housing development
near existing transit and the key destinations that transit links, including the region's universities and
colleges. The draft methodology will result in additional housing units being allocated based on proximity
to transit. This will help these jurisdictions address the housing needs of students, faculty, and staff
beyond what these colleges or universities may provide.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 18
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 25 of 42
10. The loss of units during a state of emergency that was declared by the Governor pursuant to the
California Emergency Services Act (Chapter 7 (commencing with Section 8550) of Division 1 of Title 2),
during the planning period immediately preceding the relevant revision pursuant to Section 65588 that
have yet to be rebuilt or replaced at the time of the analysis.
Jurisdictions report demolished units to the Department of Finance on an annual basis. Demolished units
include those lost during a state of emergency. Between 2011 and 2018, states of emergency in the
San Diego region declared by the Governor pursuant to the California Emergency Services Act, and in
which homes were lost, include the following wildfires: the 2014 wildfires (Cocos Fire and
Poinsettia Fire), 2017 Lilac Fire, and 2018 West Fire.
HCD analyzed the most recent ten-year average rate of demolition within the San Diego region based on
jurisdictions' annual reports to the Department of Finance. The ten-year average rate of demolition in the
San Diego region is 0.32 percent of the total housing stock. The RHNA Determination included HCD's
minimum replacement adjustment of 0.5 percent, which exceeds the region's demolition rate. This
adjustment added 6,255 housing units to the RHNA Determination. SANDAG does not have readily
available data broken down by jurisdiction to use for this factor and has therefore relied on HCD's data
and adjustment to address this factor at a regional level.
11. The region's GHG emissions targets provided by the State Air Resources Board pursuant to
Section 65080.
SANDAG's GHG reduction target, as set by the California Air Resources Board, is to reduce the region's per
capita emissions of GHG from cars and light trucks by 15 percent by 2020, compared with a 2005 baseline. By
2035, the target is to reduce GHG emissions by 19 percent per capita. The draft methodology encourages the
development of housing near jobs and transit, which will provide the region's residents with opportunities to
live where they work and/or readily access transit, which can facilitate shorter commutes, reduce GHG
emissions, and increase trip-taking by transit or alternative modes.
12. Any other factors adopted by the council of governments, that further the objectives listed in subdivision (d) of
Section 65584, provided that the council of governments specifies which of the objectives each additional
factor is necessary to further. The council of governments may include additional factors unrelated to
furthering the objectives listed in subdivision (d) of Section 65584 so long as the additional factors do not
undermine the objectives listed in subdivision (d) of Section 65584 and are applied equally across all household
income levels as described in subdivision (f) of Section 65584 and the council of governments makes a finding
that the factor is necessary to address significant health and safety conditions.
No other factors were included in the draft methodology. To the extent additional proposed factors are
provided to the Board of Directors during the public comment period or public hearing that would lead
to adjustments to the draft methodology, such proposals must not interfere with the achievement of any
of the objectives or factors required in the RHNA statutes cited in this document. In addition, it must be
shown that such factors are necessary to address significant health and safety concerns. Persons
proposing that adjustments be made to the draft methodology based on new factors should include
information establishing that the requirements in Section 65584.04(e)(12) will be met.
DRAFT 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Assessment Methodology I 19
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 26 of 42
Ultimately, the RHNA Subcommittee and TWG recommended that the following methodology be released for
public review.
1. 65 percent of the total housing units should be allocated to jurisdictions with access to transit,
including rail stations, Rapid bus stations, and major transit stops. Significant investments in
transit have been made throughout the region, and the RHNA methodology prioritizes housing growth in
those areas with access to transit. Encouraging housing growth near transit can help the allocation
promote infill development and preserve open space, as most transit is located in urbanized areas.
Improved access to transit also can lower the vehicle miles traveled in a car and reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
2. Within the housing units allocated for jurisdictions with access to transit, 75 percent of the
units should be allocated to jurisdictions with rail stations and Rapid bus stations and
25 percent should be allocated to jurisdictions with major transit stops. To ensure future growth
is located near transit, the methodology prioritizes 75 percent of the housing units in areas with rail and
Rapid bus stations. Rail stations and Rapid bus stations usually are located along fixed routes that require
significant capital investment to construct. Unlike bus stops or routes, rail and Rapid stations and routes
are not amended or eliminated on regular basis.
The remaining 25 percent of the housing units would be allocated in jurisdictions with major transit
stops. Major transit stops, as defined in state law, have two intersecting bus routes that arrive at
15-minute intervals during peak commute hours.
3. 35 percent of the total housing units should be allocated to jurisdictions based on the total
number of jobs in their jurisdiction adjusted to account for military housing on bases.
Jurisdictions should plan for housing to provide opportunities for more residents to live near their place
of employment. The RHNA Subcommittee and TWG recommended the number of jobs in each
jurisdiction with a military base be red uced to account for military jobs housed directly on a base.
4. The a/location should apply an equity adjustment. The HCD's RHNA Determination divided the
number of housing units needed in the region into four income categories based on the region's current
percentages of households in each income category. To promote equity and fair housing, the RHNA
methodology would allocate more housing units of an income category to jurisdictions with a percentage
of households in that category that is lower than the regional percentage.
Following a public hearing and public comment period, the draft RHNA methodology must be sent to HCD
for a 60-day review period. If no changes to the methodology are required by HCD, the Board of Directors
can adopt the final methodology and release a draft version of the allocation resulting from the methodology
for a 45-day appeal period. Attachment 2 shows how the recommended methodology would be used to
allocate housing units to each jurisdiction if no changes are made to the methodology between July and final
· adoption.
Next Steps
The Board of Directors is asked to release a draft of the RHNA methodology for public review. A public
hearing will be conducted and the draft RHNA metbodology will be sent to the HCD for its review following
the Board's acceptance of the draft at the end of the public review period.
The Board of Directors will be asked to approve a final RHNA Methodology and draft allocation based upon
any comments from the public and HCD. Local governments will have until April 2021 to update their
housing elements to accommodate the housing unit allocations.
Hasan lkhrata, Executive Director
Key Staff Contact: Seth Litchney, (619)699-1943, seth.litchney@sandag.org
Attachments: 1. Development Background for the Draft RHNA Methodology
2. Draft RHNA Methodology Recommended by RHNA Subcommittee and TWG
3. Summary of RHNA Subcommittee meetings
4. Summary of Additional Public Meetings Held to Solicit Input on the Draft
Methodology
2 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 28 of 42
Attachment 1
DEVELOPMENT BACKGROU ND FOR TH E DRAFT RHNA METHODOLOGY
Introduction
State housing element law requires SANDAG to provide a discussion of the Regional Housing Needs
Assessment (RHNA) allocation methodology that includes the data and assumptions relied upon, and an
explanation of how information about local government conditions and how each of the factors required by
law was used to develop the proposed methodology. (See Government Code Section 65584.04.) In addition,
SANDAG is required to describe how the draft methodology would further the five objectives iri Government
Code Section 65584. This document and the other attachments to the SAN DAG Board Report concerning
RHNA dated July 26, 2019, is intended to provide the information needed for the public to comment on the
proposed draft methodology.
Data, Assumptions, and Information on Loca l Governm ent Co nditio ns
Prior to and during the development of the methodology, the RHNA Subcommittee, which was established
by the Board of Directors, the Regional Planning Technical Working Group (including planning directors from
each jurisdiction and housing stakeholders), the SANDAG Regional Planning Committee, and the
Board of Directors held public meetings to obtain input on the data, assumptions and local condition
information that SAN DAG should use to develop the draft methodology. At these meetings, stakeholders,
staff from the cities and the County of San Diego, and elected officials were asked to help determine the
priorities for the methodology, and discuss the data needed to prepare the methodology. The Regional
Planning Technical Working Group (TWG) held a workshop to discuss the RHNA objectives and factors in
state law. The TWG members provided feedback on relevant data to consider approaches to the
methodology. Attendees at each meeting provided information regarding the types of data SANDAG should
use, assumptions that should be made, as well as information regarding conditions in their individual
jurisdictions that should be taken into consideration. For example, the RHNA Subcommittee members were
surveyed to determine which objectives and factors were highest priority for the region, and the draft RHNA
methodology was developed based on that data and input. The TWG members provided written comments
on the development of the methodology throughout the process.
There was general consensus at the meetings that the approach chosen should keep the allocation
methodology simple and easy to explain to the public. Nuanced adjustments that may have modified the
methodology in marginal ways in relation to the overall objectives and factors were discussed and considered.
Factors and adjustments that would have created a complicated formula, however, ultimately were not
pursued since the draft methodology was developed with the intent to keep it transparent and
understandable.
RHNA Objectives
The RHNA methodology and allocation furthers the five objectives listed in Government Code Section 65584.
1 . Increasing the housing supply and the mix of housing types, tenure, and affordability in all cities and
counties within the region in an equitable manner, which shall result in each jurisdiction receiving an
a/location of units for /ow-and very low-income households.
Per state law, the RHNA methodology allocates units in all four income categories to each of the region's
19 jurisdictions. The methodology does so equitably, ensuring each jurisdiction receives an allocation for
low-and very low-income units, and further, allocating a higher share of low-and very low units to
jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and very low-income households than the regional
share. State law requires jurisdictions to zone at higher densities to accommodate its low-and very low-
income housing allocation. As jurisdictions plan for and build housing, the mix of housing types will
increase.
3 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 29 of 42
2. Promoting infill development and socioeconomic equity, the protection of environmental and agricultural
resources, the encouragement of efficient development patterns, and the achievement of the region's
greenhouse gas reductions targets provided by the State Air Resources Board pursuant to Section 65080.
The RHNA methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs" to encourage efficient
development patterns and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By allocating housing units based on
these two factors, SANDAG sets a guiding principle for local jurisdictions to zone and build housing near
transit and jobs. Transit and job centers are located in the urbanized areas of the region. Therefore, an
allocation based on the proximity of transit and jobs will lead to more infill development while protecting
natural resources and open space. Because infill development does not rely on available space and can
occur in areas that already have a dense population, the methodology supports provision of housing
even in areas that are currently considered built-out.
SANDAG's GHG reduction target, as set by the California Air Resources Board, is to reduce the region's
per capita emissions of GHG from cars and light trucks by 15 percent by 2020, compared with a 2005
baseline. By 2035, the target is to reduce GHG emissions by 19 percent per capita. The RHNA
methodology encourages the development of housing near jobs and transit, which will provide the
region's residents with opportunities to live where they work and/or readily access transit, which can
facilitate shorter commutes, reduce vehicle miles traveled, and increase trip-taking by transit or
alternative modes.
3. Promoting an improved intraregional relationship between jobs and housing, including an improved
balance between the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-wage
workers in each jurisdiction.
SANDAG conducted an analysis of the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units
affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction. The analysis shows that the number of low-wage
jobs far exceeds the number of existing housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each
jurisdiction.
The RHNA methodology allocates 35 percent of the 171,685-unit regional housing need based on each
jurisdiction's share of existing regional total jobs to encourage development of housing near job centers
so that jurisdictions can improve the jobs-housing relationship.
The draft RHNA methodology's Equity Adjustment (see Objective 4) also improves the balance between
the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each
jurisdiction by allocating a higher share of low-and very low-income housing units to jurisdictions that
currently have a smaller share of low-and very low-income households than the regional share.
4. Allocating a lower proportion of housing need to an income category when a jurisdiction already has a
disproportionately high share of households in that income category, as compared to the countywide
distribution of households in that category from the most recent American Community Survey.
This objective guided the development of the Equity Adjustment used to ensure the methodology will
result in allocation of housing units to each of the income categories. This adjustment results in a
jurisdiction receiving a lower proportion of its total housing units within an income category when it has
a higher share of households within that income category compared to the region. This method shifts
units across income categories, rather than adding units to a jurisdiction's total housing unit allocation,
allowing for a mix of housing types and affordability near transit and jobs.
5. Affirmatively furthering fair housing. For purposes of this section, "affirmatively furthering fair housing"
means taking meaningful actions, in addition to combating discrimination, that overcome patterns of
segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based
on protected characteristics. Specifically, affirmatively furthering fair housing means taking meaningful
actions that, taken together, address significant disparities in housing needs and in access to opportunity,
replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns, transforming
4 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 30 of 42
RHNA Factors
In addition to furthering the objectives outlined above, state law requires that SANDAG consider several
factors in the development of the RHNA methodology, to the extent sufficient data is available pertaining to
each factor. See Government Code Section 65584.04(e). The RHNA factors and how each were considered in
the development of the draft RHNA methodology are described below.
1. Each jurisdiction's existing and projected jobs and housing relationship. This shall include an estimate
based on readily available data on the number of /ow-wage jobs within the jurisdiction and how many
housing units within the jurisdiction are affordable to low-wage workers as well as an estimate based on
readily available data, of projected job growth and projected household growth by income level within
each member jurisdiction during the planning period.
The RHNA methodology prioritizes "proximity to jobs" as a factor in allocating the regional housing
need. The jobs factor seeks to encourage development of housing near job centers so that jurisdictions
can achieve greater jobs-housing balance. The jobs factor uses current data on existing jobs instead of a
projection. Given the housing shortage within the region, it is critical that housing is built where existing
jobs are located to begin to address the current jobs-housing imbalance. Although data for projected job
and household growth by income level for the next Regional Plan update is not yet available, SANDAG
used the most recent readily available data for projected job growth and projected household growth by
income level within each member jurisdiction to conduct its analysis.
SANDAG analyzed the number of low-wage jobs and the number of housing units affordable to low-
wage workers in each jurisdiction. The analysis showed that the number of low-wage jobs far exceeds
the number of existing housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction. The draft
RHNA methodology is expected to increase the supply of affordable housing by allocating each
jurisdiction low-and very low-income housing units. The draft RHNA methodology's Equity Adjustment
(see Objective 4) should also improve the balance between the number of low-wage jobs and the
number of housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction by allocating a higher share
of low-and very low-income housing units to jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and
very low-income households than the regional share.
2. The opportunities and constraints to development of additional housing in each member jurisdiction,
including all of the following:
a. Lack of capacity for sewer or water service due to federal or state laws, regulations or regulatory
actions, or supply and distribution decisions made by a sewer or water service provider other than
the local jurisdiction that preclude the jurisdiction from providing necessary infrastructure for
additional development during the planning period.
SAN DAG notes that general plans for some jurisdictions may account for constraints to housing
development arising from lack of capacity for sewer or water ser_vice. For example, rural areas may
rely more heavily on well water and septic systems, which constrains housing development due to
lack of sufficient infrastructure. For the draft methodology, however, the "proximity to transit"
factor allocates housing units based on each jurisdiction's share of regional rail and Rapid bus
stations as well as major transit stops. Rail and Rapid bus stations are located in the region's more
developed areas where land uses generate enough ridership to support the investment to the transit
infrastructure. Major transit stops also are located in the region's urbanized areas and surrounded by
land uses that support'higher service frequencies. By prioritizing transit connectivity, the
methodology encourages infill development in urban areas that are likely to have existing capacity
for sewer or water service.
6 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 32 of 42
c. The availability of land suitable for urban development or for conversion to residential use, the
availability of underutilized land, and opportunities for infill development and increased residential
densities. The council of governments may not limit its consideration of suitable housing sites or land
suitable for urban development to existing zoning ordinances and land use restrictions of a locality,
but shall consider the potential for increased residential development under alternative zoning
ordinances and land use restrictions. The determination of available land suitable for urban
development may exclude lands where the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) or the
Department of Water Resources has determined that the flood management infrastructure designed
to protect that land is not adequate to avoid the risk of flooding.
The draft RHNA methodology is not constrained by existing zoning ordinances and land use
restrictions. Instead the methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to jobs", which
aligns with several beneficial land use planning principles, such as promoting infill and increasing
residential densities. The availability of land suitable for urban development or for conversion to
residential use, the availability of underutilized land, and opportunities for infill development and
increased residential densities are accounted for due to the methodology's use of the proximity to
jobs and transit factors. When development of housing is promoted near transit and jobs in areas
that are already more densely populated and developed than other areas of each jurisdiction, it
allows the jurisdictions to focus on infill development that can occur without reliance on the
availability of additional land, but instead on underutilized land that can be converted to uses that
allow for increased residential density.
The "proximity to transit" factor allocates housing units based on each jurisdiction's share of regional
rail and Rapid bus stations as well as major transit stops. Rail and Rapid bus stations are located in
the region's urbanized areas where land uses generate enough ridership to support the investment
to the transit infrastructure. Major transit stops are also located in the region's urbanized areas and
surrounded by land uses that support higher service frequencies. By prioritizing transit, the
methodology encourages infill development in areas that are suitable for urban development. A
transit-focused methodology also promotes increased d~nsities as jurisdictions must plan for housing
in urban areas already served by high quality transit.
The RHNA methodology aligns with the. region's priorities for growth. As shown in Figure 3.1,
general plans in the San Diego region have focused growth and development in existing urban areas,
preserved more land for habitat and open space, and looked to accommodate more housing near
transit and key destinations.
7 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 33 of 42
e. County policies to preserve prime agricultural land, as defined pursuant to Section 56064, within an
unincorporated and land within an unincorporated area zoned or designated for agricultural
protection or preservation that is subject to a local ballot measure that was approved by the voters of
that jurisdiction that prohibits or restricts its conversion to non-agricultural uses.
The County of San Diego General Plan accounts for some constraints to housing development arising
from policies to preserve prime agricultural land and incorporates local ballot measure provisions
prohibiting or restricting the conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural uses. The draft RHNA
methodology allocates housing units based on access to jobs and transit, which are located in existing
urbanized areas. Therefore, this constraint is not expected to impact the methodology's capacity to allow
for development of additional housing.
3. The distribution of household growth assumed for purposes of a comparable period of regional
transportation plans and opportunities to maximize the use of public transportation and existing
transportation infrastructure.
As shown in Figure 3.1, plans for growth are focused on the urbanized areas of the region. The RHNA
methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" as a factor-specifically high-quality transit, which is
located in the urbanized area. The emphasis on proximity to transit allows local jurisdictions that have
invested in transit the opportunity to maximize the use of existing transportation infrastructure.
4. Agreements between a county and cities in a county to direct growth toward incorporated areas of the
county, and land within an unincorporated area toned or designated for agricultural protection or
preservation that is subject to a local ballot measure that was approved by the voters of the jurisdiction
that prohibits or restricts conversion to non-agricultural uses.
Regional planning undertaken by SANDAG and its member agencies during the past 15 to 20 years, has
focused the region's growth in the western third of the region, primarily in its incorporated cities and
near transit service (Figure 3.1 ). SAND AG has funded "smart growth" grants to encourage growth in
incorporated areas of the county with sufficient density to support transit-oriented development.
Consistent with this, the draft RHNA methodology prioritizes "proximity to transit" and "proximity to
jobs". High-quality transit service and a high concentration of the region's jobs are located in the
urbanized, incorporated areas of the region. Thus, the methodology is consistent with agreements
between SAN DAG, the County of San Diego, and the cities to develop public transportation
infrastructure and supporting land uses away from areas that are zoned or designated for agricultural
protection or preservation. lnterjurisdictional agreements may account for some development constraints;
however, those agreements are not expected to be in conflict with the draft methodology due to the
prioritization of proximity to transit and jobs.
5. The loss of units contained in assisted housing developments, as defined in paragraph (9) of subdivision
(a) of Section 65583, that changed to non-low-income use through mortgage prepayment, subsidy
contract expirations, or termination of use restrictions.
The data for these units is not readily available and varies by jurisdiction. The loss of assisted housing
developments for lower income households is an issue that should be addressed by the jurisdictions
when preparing their housing elements.
6. The percentage of existing households at each of the income levels listed in subdivision (e) of
Section 65584 that are paying more than 30percent and more than 50 percent of their income in rent.
This factor was not included in state law at the time the Department of Housing and Community
Development (HCD) was making its determination on the regional housing need of the San Diego region,
and sufficient data for this factor is not readily available. The San Diego region received its largest RHNA
Determination this cycle, however, and it is expected that an influx of housing units in each income
category will help alleviate the rent burden in the region.
10 August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 36 of 42
7. The rate of overcrowding.
HCD used the 2012-2016 American Community Survey to determine the rate of overcrowding in the
San Diego region when making its RHNA Determination. HCD then compared the San Diego region's
overcrowding rate (6.43% of all households) to the national rate (3.34% of all households). To address
the needs of overcrowding in the region, HCD's RHNA Determination included an overcrowding
adjustment of 3.09 percent, which added 38,700 housing units to the regional housing need to alleviate
overcrowding in the region. Thus, this factor has already been accounted for in the draft methodology.
8. The housing needs of farmworkers.
The draft RHNA methodology prioritizes "proximity to jobs" as a factor in allocating the regional housing
need. Farmworkers are included in the data on existing jobs. Therefore, their housing needs along with
the housing needs of all the region's workers are considered.
The draft methodology increases the supply of affordable housing by allocating each jurisdiction low-
and very low-income housing units. The RHNA methodology's Equity Adjustment (see Objective 4) also
improves the balance between the number of low-wage jobs, including farming jobs, and the number of
housing units affordable to low-wage workers in each jurisdiction by allocating a higher share of low-
and very low-income housing units to jurisdictions that currently have a smaller share of low-and very
low-income households than the regional share. Although the low-income housing needs of
farmworkers are unique given their low wages and job locations, the allocation expected from the draft
methodology is expected to provide more low-income housing in every jurisdiction and accordingly
should provide farmworkers the ability to live in more areas of the region and commute shorter distances
to their seasonal jobs.
9. The housing needs generated by the presence of a private university or a campus of the California State
University or the University of California within any member jurisdiction.
The major universities and community colleges in the San Diego region are located in urban areas served by
the existing transportation network. The City of San Diego is home to San Diego State University;
University of California San Diego; University of San Diego; Point Loma Nazarene University; various smaller,
private universities; and three community colleges: San Diego City College, San Diego Mesa College, and
San Diego Miramar College. It also has the greatest share of the region's transportation system in part
because of transportation investments near universities and colleges located within its jurisdiction.
Similarly, the cities of Chula Vista (Southwestern Community College), El Cajon (Cuyamaca College),
Oceanside (MiraCosta College), and San Marcos (California State University San Marcos and Palomar
College) have made transportation investments to improve access to transit near colleges and
universities. By prioritizing transit proximity, the draft RHNA methodology encourages housing
development near existing transit and the key destinations that transit links, including the region's
universities and colleges. The draft methodology will result in additional housing units being allocated
based on proximity to transit. This Will help these jurisdictions address the housing needs of students,
faculty, and staff beyond what these colleges or universities may provide.
10. The loss of units during a state of emergency that was declared by the Governor pursuant to the
California Emergency Services Act (Chapter 7 (commencing with Section 8550) of Division 1 of Title 2),
during the planning period immediately preceding the relevant revision pursuant to Section 65588 that
have yet to be rebuilt or replaced at the time of the analysis.
Jurisdictions report demolished units to the Department of Finance on an annual basis. Demolished units
include those lost during a state of emergency. Between 2011 and 2018, states of emergency in the
San Diego region declared by the Governor pursuant to the California Emergency Services Act, and in
which homes were lost, include the following wildfires: the 2014 wildfires (Cocos Fire and
Poinsettia Fire), 2017 Lilac Fire, and 2018 West Fire .
11
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 37 of 42
HCD analyzed the most recent ten-year average rate of demolition within the San Diego region based on
jurisdictions' annual reports to the Department of Finance. The ten-year average rate of demolition in the
San Diego region is 0.32 percent of the total housing stock. The RHNA Determination included HCD's
minimum replacement adjustment of 0.5 percent, which exceeds the region's demolition rate. This
adjustment added 6,255 housing units to the RHNA Determination. SANDAG does not have readily
available data broken down by jurisdiction to use for this factor and has therefore relied on HCD's data
and adjustment to address this factor at a regional level.
11. The region's greenhouse gas emissions targets provided by the State Air Resources Board pursuant to
Section 65080.
SANDAG's GHG reduction target, as set by the California Air Resources Board, is to reduce the region's
per capita emissions of GHG from cars and light trucks by 15 percent by 2020, compared with a
2005 baseline. By 2035, the target is to reduce GHG emissions by 19 percent per capita. The RHNA
methodology encourages the development of housing near jobs and transit, which will provide the
region's residents with opportunities to live where they work and/or readily access transit, which can
facilitate shorter commutes, reduce GHG emissions, and increase trip-taking by transit or alternative
modes.
12. Any other factors adopted by the council of governments, that further the objectives listed in subdivision
(d) of Section 65584, provided that the council of governments specifies which of the objectives each
additional factor is necessary to further. The council of governments may include additional factors
unrelated to furthering the objectives listed in subdivision (d) of Section 65584 so long as the additional
factors do not undermine the objectives listed in subdivision (d) of Section 65584 and are applied equally
across all household income levels as described in subdivision (f) of Section 65584 and the council of
governments makes a finding that the factor is necessary to address significant health and safety
conditions.
The presence of a significant number of military jobs in certain jurisdictions was taken in consideration in
the development of the draft methodology. Information was sought from representatives of the military
branches in the region and the number of on-base housing units provided by the military were taken into
account during the development of the methodology. The number of jobs in each jurisdiction with a
military base was reduced to account for military jobs housed directly on a base.
12
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 38 of 42
. RHNA Subcommittee Meeting Summaries Attachment 3
Meeting Date
February 8, 2019
February 22, 2019
March 22, 2019
April 26, 2019
May 24, 2019
June 14, 2019
-•....,.,--,•••-~ .. •-.,--,,--,,.-..,._.,.,..,--•-,>--·'•, M •-. ----~, .... ~ •. ••··-· ··•·~ .-.•--·-< , .. _ ~-> •. --. ,··• ·---··-·. ·----•-¥. ~ .... ,,.,,-.,... .. ,..._, _ ____,_ .. , .... ------~ -z---~ .•; .... ,
·Materials Presente·d I Comm:ents/birection'
•-~~•----~--•-•-•--· •---•• t.,__ __ -• ~_;.-•""-'---.._ ___ __:(..._._.;_ -~--•-••-•-•,..-w __ _......_.. --•• -~---•-•-•----~--• •----------•••· ---•••-•,.•• V
• RHNA Subcommittee Charter
• RHNA Plan Timeline
• RHNA Statutory Objectives and Factors
• SANDAG 2017 Regional Housing Progress Report
• 5th Cycle RHNA Progress
• Housing Legislative Update
• SANDAG 2016 Commuting Patterns in the
San Diego Region
• Housing Definitions
• SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Map
• RHNA Subcommittee Survey Results
• Potential RHNA Methodology Framework
• RHNA Allocation Calculator Tool
• Regional Planning Technical Working Group (TWG)
Comments on RHNA Calculator Tool
• Revised RHNA Allocation Calculator Tool
• Additional TWG Comments on RHNA Calculator Tool
• Staff Recommended RHNA Methodology
• On-Base Military Housing Data
• Calculation of Methodology Adjusted for On-Base
Military Housing
14
• Requested 5th Cycle RHNA Progress
• Inquired about the impact of recent state legislation on the
RHNA process
• Requested definitions of housing terms and information on
commuting patterns.
• Requested a list of RHNA Objectives and Factors to prioritize
• In addition to transit-oriented development, the allocation
should assign housing to job-rich areas
• Discussed the definitions used for the transit calculation
including the rail, Rapid bus, and high frequency transit .
• Requested to pursue an allocation methodology based on the
potential framework
• How should accessory dwelling units be considered in the
allocation?
• Should a jurisdiction size or other constraints be considered in
the allocation?
• Population should not be a factor in the methodology.
• Transit should receive a higher prioritization to reduce VMT.
• Allocation should provide 65% of the units to areas with
transit and 35% of the units based on jobs in the jurisdiction.
• Consider military housing as part of the jobs count for each
jurisdiction.
• Keep the allocation methodology simple and easy to explain
• Consider the type of job in each jurisdiction.
• Discussed whether to adjust the jobs total to account for on-
base military housing.
• Discussed transit calculation
• Recommended a methodology to the Board of Directors
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 40 of 42
Summary of Additional Public Meetings Held to Solicit Input on the Draft Methodology Attachment 4
Meeting Date Discussion
Board of Directors September 14, 2018 Board of Directors Asked to Provide Ideas on RHNA Priorities
Regional Planning Committee October 5, 2018 RHNA Update on Board of Directors RHNA Priorities
TWG and Housing Stakeholders October 11, 2018 Board Direction on the RHNA and the Role of the Regional Planning
Technical Working Group
TWG and Housing Stakeholders December 13, 2018 RHNA Workshop
TWG and Housing Stakeholders January 10, 2019 Update on RHNA Subcommittee, RHNA Work Plan, and Recap of the RHNA
Workshop
Regional Planning Committee February 1, 2019 RHNA Update
TWG and Housing Stakeholders February 14, 2019 RHNA Update
TWG and Housing Stakeholders March 14, 2019 RHNA Methodology Discussion
TWG and Housing Stakeholders April 3, 2019 RHNA Methodology Workshop
TWG and Housing Stakeholders May 9, 2019 RHNA Methodology Calculation Tool Amendments Discussion
Board of Directors May 10, 2019 Update on the RHNA Subcommittee
TWG and Housing Stakeholders June 6, 2019 Update on RHNA Subcommittee and Discussion on Methodology
TWG and Housing Stakeholders June 13, 2019 RHNA Update and Discussion on Methodology
TWG and Housing Stakeholders June 27, 2019 RHNA Methodology Recommendation
15
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 41 of 42
August 20, 2019
Honorable Chairperson Steve Vaus
San Diego Association of Governments
401 B Street, Suite 800
San Diego, CA 92101
Dear Chairperson Vaus and Board Members, ,/t;,
Exhibit 3
.,z;. x;?,;;;, .-&-?".":-;,1/
On July 26, 2019, the SAN DAG Board of Directors released for cotf"~Jnt the draft Regional Housing Needs
Assessment (RHNA) Methodology and justification for me~trJi::t'if:Nl\.objectives and factors as outlined
y /?.ir-// /,-?~7,-i n state law. I write on behalf of the Carlsbad City Coun~I tO:,st:lpport{t,~~ ,RHNA methodology as released
for p~bli~ review b~ the Board. Th~ propo~ed met~o~i~J-is ba_se? on ~~~,?lanning pri~ciples to loc~te
housing in areas with access to high quality transI:t"aJ;1tt in proxImIty to Joosic~nters. Having a strong link -~",,,?!~~ '4j1:-7,?, between housing and transit reinforces the planning;,efforts reflected in loca1(~eneral Plans (particularly
those comprehensively updated within the last '?f:~):¥ears), promotes the J{{:biljty of Smart Growth 1<_:>%%: I',,. ,>/1,0~ >"-?'>"6¥'.' Opportunity Areas, and furthers the goals laid out b[<SB::,,375 a;rid5'£ANDAG's Susfai:i'iable Communities
: . ':,/jLr~ . ~''..'.~f:~;v-• Y,9-~',~/
Strategy. Placing housing closer to .,jciJ:h :,centers will 'suj:p0r;f:f more strategic arra:?effective public '/M'f '--0· . ,,;,,.-1,;;;,7 infrastructure investments, particularlyz:_,{n;;i:transportationf,9:!;!d will promote social, economic and
/j'//2, ,,fk:-;;;J.0 '//;0,0 environmental sustainability throughoudij:i~gii ft;;if o this endt :~t .. t support the draft methodology that
accounts for .fil[jobs in the region: civilian, ffijtlitary:a'{ti(;hpused mili~f¾ ,;,-:~ '•!~J,00 .. ~J,;;, ,nvzZ,, -~;:i?;" '•~·•, . ;Y,i·,17,,, ~.J"..xt~z,,. 'i~.. ;.:,f~t~,,;, '02~
Hou_sing needs i~ th_e S}.1t~~o•,re&')gi~re co~si~Jf b~ft,1?it'i~,~J)l~af1:hese needs are accommo~ated
equitably by all Junsd10t1.0ns. The CqrJsbad City C2,ou»,e;1Jfinds thatqlfo; draft methodology -strategically "~2 ,.,,,.~,. '¾11;(?.7 .;,-,. linked to transit and jobs;;gq,Y,pled wi~JJt re proposect~quity adjustment to a_ccount for household income
differences thr. oughout thl"(~g .. ~on -/2. J~~.\~t. ~~ightfonjj..f:~st~ reasonable solution to a difficult task, while at
,-•✓y,<v>-r ~,,.:?:Cr,. ,,1:;,;,~?_:.1/ .... :;:>r-;~v,7,<~ 1'-9X;( .. the same tttBEkfllt !~~fjp_g the 60J~5,l!'.!lescfaiqt~t9f,JD stat~;1~w. ,A%'~4'Jif;x;i;f,\-?~·, 'f;?;':;:{;7 '❖';%;(,?, .. , '..;;f,? /~~'.¾;,· . ;,y'~./2· ;;;,;;,:,,,, .,;;%:23\\ ,;,, ,1,1/ /;~.-,~;,., ,, -Zt~lr,,:;-, t1?";·· ·----~~,,~2'f
While WJ \:fity supports'l M,~ȣ:oposeq;~~-NA metn'ocf9fogy, the City Council requests that the SANDAG
Board acl(ij,9~wledge the sigrflf:ipam cofrt1i.,1>✓4t. ion the City of Carlsbad has made in providing housing for -,~, •~'/% <01//j lower incomE¼hpuseholds witni1~Carlsba~·.Q_yer the past approximately 25 years as a result of its @·~·. ·3'~ . J,:y/ mandatory lncl4,,~~ary Housin~9{dinance,' The City has supported the development and actual
construction of n~aijyti,500 units g~estr'.cte? housing affordable to lower inc~me households fo~ 30 to
55 years, depending ·0;1;):pxoduct Wi:te, which includes both rental and ownership products. The City has
als? ~rovided ove_r $3_.s·w;iyJrlff~blic finan~ial assistance t~ d~t_e to ~nsure the construction ~f th~se
units in partnership with t tfu'j;}J;!Yii3te sector. This represents a s1gnif1cant investment by a coastal city with
high land costs and environm'efffal constraints. The City of Carlsbad has established policy consistent with
the need to provide for affordable housing opportunities to lower income households and is committed
to continuing this policy.
Sincerely,
Matt Hall, Mayor
City of Carlsbad
August 20, 2019 Item #16 Page 42 of 42