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2022-10-17; Economic Development Subcommittee; ; Economic Development Strategic Plan Update
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUBCOMMITTEE Staff Report Meeting Date: Oct. 17, 2022 To: Economic Development Subcommittee From: David Graham, Chief Innovation Officer Staff Contact: David Graham, David.graham@carlsbadca.gov Subject: Economic Development Strategic Plan Update Recommended Action Receive an informational report regarding the Economic Development Strategic Plan, discuss and provide a recommendation to adopt the strategic plan. Next Steps Should the subcommittee recommend, the economic development strategic plan would be presented to the City Council and considered for adoption. Discussion Economic development staff worked with RSG Group on the development of an Economic Development Strategic Plan to help guide economic development efforts over the next three to five years. The economic development strategic plan will support City Council's goal of Economic Vitality as noted in the Carlsbad Strategic Plan 2023-2027, which was adopted on October 11, 2022. This item provides an opportunity to hear an update from staff and RSG Group regarding the strategy (Attachment A). The proposed economic development strategic plan was created with input from numerous stakeholders, including businesses, business organizations, residents, workers, the Economic Development Subcommittee and internal staff from numerous departments. RSG Group leveraged their expertise as economic development consultants, as well as the analysis of The Concord Group, which conducted a market study for Carlsbad (Attachment B). The proposed strategic plan is broken into two parts. The first part is the strategy itself, which is meant to last three to five years with overarching economic development goals that include: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs Develop Workforce and Attract Talent Grow and Support Key Industries Encourage Placemaking and Engagement The second part is the action plan (Attachment C). The action plan contains numerous tactics that can be pursued by the city to achieve the four goals contained in the strategy. The action Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 1 of 173 plan also contains factors such as prioritization, cost, estimated timeline, departments engaged, and key performance indicators (KPI) to measure success. The action plan is meant to be revisited on an annual basis and updated to correspond with changing market conditions, economic needs, and future challenges. As conditions change, certain actions may be elevated in priority, timeline updated, or KPls adjusted to more accurately respond to future needs. Public Notification Public notice of this item was posted in keeping with the Ralph M . Brown Act and was available for public viewing and review at least 24 hours before the scheduled meeting date. Exhibits 1. Attachment A 2. Attachment B 3. Attachment C Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 2 of 173 Oct. 17, 2022 Attachment A ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2 0 2 2 STRATEGIC PLAN { City of Carlsbad Item #2 Page 3 of 173 Methodology Market Study Community Engagement • Demographics • • . .. . . ••• Businesses, Startups, and Entrepreneurs . . . . . • • • • • 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement • Appendix A: Market Study Scott Chadwick David Graham Laura Rocha • • • Deputy City Manager Oct. 17, 2022 : . Matt Sanford Econom,c Development . . .... The Carlsbad Economic Development Strategic Plan is a roadmap that will guide the City's economic development activities for the next five years. The Strategy comes at a critical time for the City and the community. Given the pandemic, subsequent recovery, market pressures, and international conflict, it is more important than ever to identify Carlsbad's economic development strategies and to prepare for future challenges. The Strategic Plan provides flexible and agile guidance for Carlsbad to address City Council's goal of economic vitality: fostering a healthy local economy. Carlsbad is proud to have an engaged community, and like so many of the City's previous and concurrent planning efforts, businesses, residents, and stakeholders helped shape the Strategy with t heir input and feedback. The Strategy has coupled this feedback with data driven insights from a market study to shape recommended actions. Economic development is a collaborative effort, and is not limited to one department, group, or organization. The Strategic Plan thoughtfully involves multiple City departments, local and regional partners, workforce and talent, residents, and the broad and diverse businesses that support the community. The Strategic Plan focuses on four areas that capitalize on Carlsbad's strengths, while addressing our challenges and opportunit ies. In addition, there are measurable objectives that retain the necessary flexibility to allow for response to changing economic conditions that will occur over the life of this Strategic Plan. Economic development initiatives are dynamic, fluid, and are multi-faceted as they exist beyond a single category. Strategic objectives and actions purposefully overlap multiple categories, signifying the intertwined relationship within economic development. Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ffi-~RATE8~1SN~iN I 3 I Methodology The Economic Development Strategic Plan will serve as a supporting document to the Citywide Strategic Plan and build on the already successful and vibrant Carlsbad business community. There are eight main components that have gone into the EDSP. Resident & Workforce Outreach Identify Goals and Strategic Objectives Market Study The Concord Group conducted a market study that identified current market conditions and trends in Carlsbad and provided detailed information on demographics, employment, and emerging industries. The findings from the market analysis informed the proposed strategies and can be found throughout the Strategic Plan as they relate to each goal. The full report is an attachment to the Strategic Plan. • Key growth areas include high paying industries such as Life Sciences, Technology, and Cleantech • From 2019 to 2020, the inflow of residents from Los Angeles and San Francisco and outflow of residents to Riverside County increased • The hospitality & tourism sector saw a large employment decline from 2018-2020, driven by the pandemic along with challenges associated with finding and retaining workers and reopening in an uncertain environment • Carlsbad holds a higher share of class A office space in North County compared to its neighbors • Key industries such as sports innovation & design and hospitality & tourism decreased employment between 2018-2020 • Downtown San Diego is increasing its life science office space footprint and can pose a threat to Carlsbad's ability to attract new companies and talent to the market • Office space in Carlsbad is relatively affordable, and coupled with desirable demographics, and can attract high wage businesses • The high job to labor market and forecasted growth of households earning over $100K over the next five years may fuel growth in Class A office space • Carlsbad's flex space rents are lower than its neighboring cities, allowing it to take advantage of the demand for life science flex space in the greater San Diego region Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ffi-~RATE8~1Sf.Jli{i.N I 4 I Community Engagement The City of Carlsbad is committed to engaging community members in decisions affecting their lives. In addition to the market study, a robust engagement strategy was implemented that incorporates feedback from residents, business owners, business support organizations, economic development resource partners, City Council Economic Development Subcommittee, and City staff. Stakeholder feedback was collected through: • Resident and workforce workshop • Four business stakeholder workshops • Social Pinpoint idea wall • Meetings with City staff • Previous outreach efforts conducted via Cities GPS • Previous outreach efforts for the Citywide Strategic Plan • City Council Economic Development Subcommittee Meetings A SWOT analysis documented findings from the efforts mentioned above, as well as community & regional assets for economic development, and opportunities for the City. After cross- referencing this analysis with the existing economic development programs, strategic goals and objectives were developed that filled the gaps between existing programs and identified needs. Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ffi-#!,+RATE8~t18~~i_N I 5 I City Profile and Demographics OoO ,,,~~ D lrfrDll'I HOUSING UNITS: 47,734 Oct. 17, 2022 POPULATION: 115,302 HOTEL ROOMS 4,900+ 1.6 TOTAL JOBS: 78,135 TOP BUSINESS CLUSTERS: EDUCATIONAL ATTAIN ME-NT: Oct. 17, 2022 24.6% Graduate or Professional Degree 2.9% City of Carlsbad Economic Development Strategic Plan Goals GOAL 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. GOAL 2: Develop Workforce and Attract Talent Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skill s, resources, and sup port for current and future jobs. GOAL 3: Grow and Support Key Industries Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad's economy. GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our comm unity by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOP~ !f~ATEcfieS..fti~R~!l~ J 8 I Carlsbad has been a long-standing collaborator with local and regional business resource partners to assist its diverse business community and promote entrepreneurlsm. Small businesses owners and entrepreneurs create local employment opportunities, increase economic resilience, and lend to our sense of place. Over 90% of businesses in Carlsbad are small businesses with 50 employees or fewer. Residents and visitors alike enjoy the mom-and-pop retail shops and restaurants that enhance the culture of the community. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the nature of work and how business is conducted. Remote work allows employees to live in Carlsbad while working for a company located in a different city or even state. Ninety percent of senior executives expect some remote work to continue permanently. The pandemic also influenced an increase in entrepreneurship, as members of the work force looked to alternative means of income stability. The pandemic accelerated an already lively entrepreneurial spirit in Carlsbad as 900 home- based businesses sprung to life amid the height of COVID-19. Additionall y of the businesses located in Carlsbad for less than a year almost half are designated as startups. Oct. 17, 2022 Carlsbad staff is dedicated to building a business- friendly environment. It is important that the City remains flexible in facilitating business development with the ebbs and flows of the market. The regulatory landscape for businesses is continually evolving, and by remaining flexible and proactively responding to regional, national, and global challenges, the City will strengthen its appeal to growing industries and retain existing businesses seeking to expand. Where We Excel • Desirable demographics including a large, educated, and skilled labor force • 82% of businesses surveyed rated satisfaction of doing business in Carlsbad as excellent or good • Proven economic resilience and agility during COVID-19 response with creation and support of Small Business Loan Program, Mediation Program, and Ready Carlsbad Business A lliance support • Robust partnerships with business organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce, Carlsbad Village Associat ion, and Visit Carlsbad - • Supporting small business and business organizations through programs such as the banner program, Gift Carlsbad, Cyber Security Program, and future technologies impact report • The City Council's Legislative Committee monitors potential legislation that may affect businesses • Community Development staff created a How to Open an Eating Establishment guide for potential restaurant owners • The City has proven its resilience and agility during the pandemic by creating and implementing essential programs through the Economic Recovery and Response Initiative, such as the Tenant Rent Deferral Program and mediation services, for small businesses Challenges We Face • There have been historical challenges navigating City permitting system, particularly processing time, and communication • Businesses express frustration and confusion with signage requirements • Some businesses and developers find the Zoning Code confusing • Land use policies are perceived as outdated and lack flexibility Opportunities for Growth • The nature of work is changing, and the City has an opportunity to design programs around this shift • The implementation of a new permitting system provides staff an opportunity to increase the number of permits and applications available online • The City offers a free pre-application program, however many customers, developers, and residents are not aware of this option • As the City continues to improve permitting timelines, there is opportunity for continued growth • The City can capitalize on the strength of the relationships w ith local and regional partners Goal 1 Objectives 1.1: Educate the public on the permitting and entitlement process and provide City staff with knowledge and resources to work with businesses and provide such information 1.2: Improve customer service experience during the permitting process 1.3: Empower small businesses and entrepreneurs w ith resources they need to be successful in Carlsbad 1.4: Embrace the changing nature of work and what that may look like for Carlsbad businesses 1.5: Increase engagement and support for women, minority, veteran, and disabled-own businesses Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~MlilJ,#;TRATE~~i~&f ilt?~ I IO I With excellent community amenities and services, such as top-rated K-12 schools, medical and recreational facilities, and public safety, it is no surprise that business owners choose to start their businesses in Carlsbad to take advantage of the quality of life the community affords. Carlsbad Is job rich and an employment hub for surrounding cities, with a job to labor ratio of 1.6 and approximately 80,000 jobs. Almost 25% of the Carlsbad workforce live and work In Carlsbad, the highest of any other city in North County. Carlsbad has desirable demographics and a large, educated, and skilled labor force. Approximately 35% of residents have bachelor's degree, and roughly 25% have graduate or professional degree. Between 2011-21, the Carlsbad median income increased approximately 40% and the population of households that make over $150,000 increased by roughly 17%. Conversely, the population of households that make less than $100,000 decreased by 18% over the same period. Because of the high cost of living, data shows that over half of the workforce in hospitality & tourism, leisure, and retail -key Carlsbad industries -live outside of Carlsbad. These workers face further challenges with limited options for reliable and fast public transportation options. Where We Excel CULTIVATE. BUILD. LIVE. CONNECT • Key growth areas include high paying industries such as Life Sciences, Technology, and Cleantech • There are six colleges and universities within 30 miles (MiraCosta College, Cal State San Marcos, UC San Diego, National University, University of San Diego, San Diego State University) • Carlsbad's Life in Action talent attraction program is a recruiting tool for Carlsbad companies • Carlsbad adopted a Sustainable Mobility Plan to help improve transportation-related safety, reduce greenhouse emissions, and increase travel choices for residents and workers • The City partners with the County of San Diego to offer a Down Payment Assistance Program for first t ime homebuyers • Carlsbad offers housing programs such as a Home Repair Program and Section 8 Vouchers to help keep housing affordable • The City recently implement ed the Permit Ready ADU program to encourage construction of affordable housing options Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~Mrffi,#~TRATEB~i~&f ,lt?~ I 11 I Challenges We Face • Businesses are experiencing difficulties in hiring because of small applicant pools, competition, demand for higher wages, high cost of living, c hildcare issues, and more • Regional mobility issues contribute to lengthy commute times and decreased quality of life • Hospitality & tourism and other industries that support visitors are struggling to get workers because of the high cost of living • From 2019 to 2020, the inflow of residents from Los Angeles and San Francisco and outflow of residents to Riverside County increased • High traffic coupled with a lack of mobility options can make it difficult for the workforce, residents, and visitors alike to travel around town • Hospitality & tourism saw a large employment decline from 2018-2020, driven by the pandemic along with challenges associated w ith finding and retaining workers and reopening in an uncertain environment Opportunities for Growth • By implementing programs identified in the Housing Element, Carlsbad has an opportunity to address housing issues in conjunction with creating opportunities for economic vitality • Carlsbad can capitalize on the changing nature of work by being proactive about the creation and design of economic development programs to incorporate new workforce trends • Carlsbad's excellent school districts and access to six higher education institutions allow an opportunity to create and sustain workforce development programs to complement the key industries in the City • By implementing programs in its Sustainable Mobility Plan, Carlsbad can create opportunities for economic vitality and additional mobility options to connect the workforce to these opportunities Goal 2 Objectives 2.1: Enhance workforce training and talent attraction resources to support Carlsbad's key industries by partnering w ith K-12 school districts, regional higher educational institutions, and other cities in the region to support talent development and linkages w ith key industries 2.2: Creat e a more connected City and capitalize on existing digital tools to promote digital equit y 2.3: Through the implementation of the Housing Element programs, address housing issues while promoting economic vitality by providing the workforce additional housing opportunities to be able to both live and work in Carlsbad 2.4:Through the implement ation o f the Sustainable Mobility Plan programs, mindfully create opportunities to promote economic vitality by providing the Carlsbad workforce additional mobility options Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~Mm},#?TRATEB~~Af&f ilJ'..Rt\J I 12 I Adventure S Net Ports Carlsbad generates a large volume of its gross regional product (GRP) from manufacturing, the largest industry by employment. Professlonal, scientific, and technical services are the next largest components of the City's GRP which includes include technology, life sciences, and other innovation industries. These sectors were minimally affected by the pandemic recession, and continued growth is anticipated due to resiliency to recession. From 2010 to 2019, Carlsbad was a top performer in San Diego County in employment growth within the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, however employment decreased dramatically during the pandemic. The forecasted growth in these sectors post-pandemic is strong, with an expected annual growth of 7% throughout San Diego, but some sectors of the economy may not recover all the jobs lost during the pandemic in the next five years. Where We Excel • The City's Economic Intelligence and Insights (Ei2) Program sheds economic insights on the business climate of Carlsbad, allowing the City to proactively respond to challenges • Staff works directly with key industries looking to relocate or expand within Carlsbad • The City has strong partnerships with local business organizations Work • Between 2010 & 2020, Carlsbad businesses attracted $23.4 billion in venture capital, w ith the life sciences industry cluster accounting for 66% of total investments • W ith nearly 16.2 patents obtained per 1,000 workers, Carlsbad outpaces tech hubs such as San Francisco and San Jose in this category • Carlsbad has a competitive life science office market with the second lowest office rents in the San Diego area • The "Doing Business in Carlsbad" site provides key information for businesses looking to expand or locate in Carlsbad • Carlsbad holds a higher share of class A office space in North County compared to its neighbors • Carlsbad is home to a number of tourism destinations that benefit both visitors and residents, including beaches, nature preserves, parks, natural landscapes, open space, lagoons, wildlife corridors, Legoland, golf courses, flower fields, and retail outlets • The Carlsbad Tourism Business Improvement District (CTBID) amplifies Carlsbad as a destination without using City dollars Oct. 17, 2022 CITY,OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~~,#~TRATE~~~~&f ilJ.JN I 13 I Challenges We Face • Key industries such as sports innovation & design and hospitality & tourism, decreased employment between 2018-2020 • Changes in work dynamics, like remote work, showed that office space in Carlsbad may be sensitive to impacts • The high cost of living is prohibitive for many employees in entertainment, retail, hospitality & tourism to live in Carlsbad. • Downtown San Diego is increasing its life science office space footprint and can pose a threat to Carlsbad's ability to attract new companies and talent to the market • The Inland Empire has lower housing costs than Carlsbad and the San Diego region, increasing its appeal to workers Opportunities for Growth • Residents and workers want more connected and frequent public transportation to move workers to and from jobs • Economic Intelligence and Insights (Ei2) Program can be expanded to provide critical data on key industries, allowing t he City to be proactive and nimble • Strong partnerships with local business organizations allows for cooperative programming • Office space in Carlsbad is relatively affordable, attracting high wage businesses • The high job to labor market ratio and forecasted growth of households earning over $100K over the next five years may fuel growth in Class A office space • Carlsbad's flex space rents are lower than its ne.ighboring cities, allowing it to take advantage of t he demand for life science flex space in the greater San Diego region Goal 3 Objectives 3.1: Evaluate opportunities to improve mobility for visitors, residents, and workers 3.2: Connect businesses in key sectors with data and resources they need to thrive in Carlsbad 3.3: Assist businesses in growing industries such as tech, life sciences, cleantech, sports innovation & design, and hospitality & tourism, among others, which are looking to relocate or expand in Carlsbad 3.4: Balance support between the needs of residents and businesses in hospitality & tourism, and ent ertainment Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOJ~,#~TRATEB~~c!Rc5» ilJ'~ I 14 I ' t 'it " I r_ i _~,_-;_._ ~_: ,., I t.-;. 'I , .,.,:?-. r_1 , 1 i I.! . I GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Carlsbad has a strong commitment to engaging residents and businesses. The City is active across various social media platforms, however improving access to information for businesses and augmenting the impact of the City's existing platforms to include businesses as an audience will allow the business community and workers to know more about what resources are available to them. There is an opportunity to open new channels of communication and promote stronger connections with residents and businesses alike. Carlsbad's beautiful parks, beaches, and public places naturally foster p lacemaking and gathering. The vibrant and thriving Village is a center of activity, art, and culture. These assets bolster quality of life and should be leveraged to attract and retain workers. Where We Excel • Carlsbad has an engaged and involved community • Joint communications with the Chamber of Commerce, Carlsbad Village Association, and Visit Carlsbad show unity • Strong public reception to the City Manager's newsletter • Strong social media presence • The Citizens Academy empowers residents w ith information about their local government • Biennial business survey provides ongoing insights into business climate • Carlsbad Connects App is a centralized location for activity and news, and to report challenges • The City of Carlsbad is committed to the importance public art and established an A rts Commission to provide direction and support for the development of a variety of arts in the City Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~Mtmi#lrnATEB~~chl&f ill~ 1 ,s I Challenges We Face • Messaging for businesses does not cut through t he digital clutter to reach recipients • Most economic development programs in t he City are not well branded • The City can better leverage the "Doing Business in Carlsbad" page to be a consolidated, specific economic development website o riented toward businesses w ith current information on programs and activities • Some sections of the Village Barrio Master Plan and the Sig nage Ordinance are unclear or confusing Opportunities for Growth • Reach new demographics by expanding successful social media and other out reach programs • Harness addit ional data from Economic Intelligence and Insights (Ei2) Program to inform decisio n making and empower local businesses with data • Create partnership bet ween the Arts Commission and Economic Development Subcommittee to develop p lacemaking tactics as an economic engine Goal 4 Objectives 4.1: Build upon the successes of the communication efforts in t he City to promote the City's economic development programs 4 .2: Enhance physical placemaking opportunities to strengthen the connection b etween people and the places they share 4.3: Leverage City-owned assets and right of way to create a sense of place Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~~,#~TRATEB~i~&f ilt?RN I 16 I Sources Source Reseracher Date City of Carlsbad 2021-2029 Housing Element City of Carlsbad 2021 City of Carlsbad Social Pinpoint Idea Wall April -May 2022 City of Carlsbad Sustainable Mobility Plan City of Carlsbad December 2020 City of Carlsbad and RSG Community Outreach Workshops February, March, and May 2022 COVID-19 Inclusive Recovery Assessment and Implications Cities GPS August16,2021 Economic Scan First Quarter FY 2021-2022 City of Carlsbad November 2, 2021 2021 City of Carlsbad Business Report BW Research Partnership December 2021 2022 Carlsbad Market Study The Concord Group February 2022 2022 City of Carlsbad Business Report BW Research Partnership May 2022 Oct. 17, 2022 c 1rv OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~~-,#lrnATE~flSl~cm' ill?RN 111 I DRAFT 0 n r+ ....., _......i N 0 N N ;::;: ro 3 :ti: N " QJ O'Q ro N 0 0 ....., ....., ......i w THE CONCORD G Ro UP Real_ Estate Advisors Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Prepared for ~ QJ The City of Carlsbad ~ Cl) March 23rd 2022 ;:;. / a:, DRAFT 0 n ,.... ..... ,......, N 0 N N ;::;: (I) 3 :it N -0 Q) O'Q (I) N ..... 0 ...... ..... ......, w I. MARKET OVERVIEW 1. Regional Location and Summary Findings 2. Employment A. Overall B. Industry Composition C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA comparison also) D. Employment Nodes (break between a few uses, medical, industrial) E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on distance/direction -north, south etc) F. Migration Patterns G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps) 3. Demographic Summary 4. City Demos -GDP growth, recent developments, large future projects, largest employers A. B. C. Tourism Industry Composition Major Employers RSG EDSP Carlsbad, CA 11. 111. 2 •• THE CONCORD GROUP OFFICE OPPORTUNITY 1. Office Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial) 2. Office Demand 3. Submarket Capture Scenarios RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 1. Retail Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional) 2. Retail Demand 3. Retail Opportunity Summary February 2022 21690.00 I-LL <( 0:: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 ~ Q) ·-c: Q) > 0 Item #2 Page 22 of 173 DRAFT 0 n ..... I-> ~-...J rv 0 rv rv ..... (I) 3 # rv "O QJ O'Q (I) rv w 0 -I-> -...J w THE CONCORD G Ro UP Real_ Estate Advisors Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Prepared fo r The City of Carlsbad Ma rch 23rd, 2022 DRAFT 0 n ..... ~ _--.J N 0 N N ;::;: (I) 3 :ii: N " Q) OQ (I) N ~ 0 ...... ~ --.J w THE CONCORD G Ro UP Real. Estate Advisors Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Pre pared for The City of Carlsbad March 23rd, 2022 DRAFT 0 n ,-+ ~ ,-..J N 0 N N ;:::;: Cl) 3 :it N ""O OJ OQ Cl) N V, 0 -~ -..J w I. MARKET OVERVIEW 1 . Regional Location and Summary Findings 2. Employment A. Overall B. Industry Composition C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA comparison also) D. Employment Nodes (break between a few uses, medical, industrial) E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on distance/direction -north, south etc) F. Migration Patterns G . Expo Line (dev plans, maps) 3. Demographic Summary 4. City Demos -GDP growth, recent developments, large future projects, largest employers A. B. C. Tourism Industry Composition Major Employers RSG EDSP Carlsbad, CA 11. 111. 2 • THE CONCORD GROUP OFFICE OPPORTUNITY 1. Office Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial) 2. Office Demand 3. Submarket Capture Scenarios RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 1. Retail Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional) 2. Retail Demand 3. Retail Opportunity Summary February 2022 21690.00 ~ LL <( 0:: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 ~ Q) ·-2: Q) > 0 Item #2 Page 26 of 173 DRAFT 0 n :---....,. ,--.J N 0 N N ;::; rt) 3 :it N "tl Ql OQ rt) N --.J 0 ...., ....,. --.J w THE CONCORD G Ro UP Real. Estate Advisors Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Prepared for The City of Carlsbad March 23rd, 2022 DRAFT 0 n r+ 1-1 ,-..J N 0 N N ;::;: (I) 3 =1:1: N -0 Ill OQ (I) N 00 0 ....., 1-1 -..J w I. MARKET OVERVIEW 1. Regional Location and Summary Findings 2. Employment A. Overall B. Industry Composition C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA comparison also) D. Employment Nodes (break between a few uses, medical, industrial) E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on distance/direction -north, south etc) F. Migration Patterns G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps) 3. Demographic Summary 4. City Demos -GDP growth, recent developments, large future projects, largest employers A. B. C. Tourism Industry Composition Major Employers RSG EDSP Carlsbad, CA 11. 111. 2 •• THE CONCORD GROUP OFFICE OPPORTUNITY 1. Office Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial) 2. Office Demand 3. Submarket Capture Scenarios RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 1. Retail Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional) 2. Retail Demand 3. Retail Opportunity Summary February 2022 21690.00 ..... LL <( 0::: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 ~ Q) ·-2: Q) > 0 Item #2 Page 29 of 173 DRAFT 0 n ~ I-" ,-.J N 0 .l).J ,,., Do• CClnJ'Of' 'fO Loi.:. fo<Kt Rancho -_ _..., u.,f\100 Wovd> ~"'°" Vleio __ l.oguno Kilt• H n J~ ~ Aliwo Vteio Laguno Niguo.l Son Juon Copi:•trono Dona Fbtnl ;:;: (D 3 # N "'O a, (IQ (D OJ 0 0 -I-" -.J OJ P4c;f1c Oc-9un 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc lair;• Eta.in«. Solana Bead EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION NORTH COUNTY, CA Coriyon Loh . WildotnOJ Murri•ta ~, .. MunMtu ttotSp,•ng• ,-..,,.culo North County Fottbroolt ,. JANUARY 2022 So.,. ':!. "°* -... Poumo v°'1.-, Vt,1~Ceow..- Escondido The blue area represents North County San Diego, the geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report. The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, Son Marcos, Solano Beach, Vista and a portion of northern San Diego City. The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland parts. $un,:b..W Su"'""U Hol~D v.xa,,. M..,o Gfof\o04i w ...... $t,,lng• Son ignodo Son~ Ranc:Nta --~ ..... ,., .... -H~j, _, ~-~ lotr~ 0.s•rt L o., ~r"': -~ %1-9 ' --UANWl-itJ Chy I.a"'°"" Ww,l•r Corfton Hi., ~--Oo,d&n$ 1.aJollo ~ctflc ho-ch Nor-mot fo1t Son HeJghh O..,Q<> 8os:1·ont0 Jobnstown 8ott0ttio El Coion lDM.sa Rancho lomon Oro¥tl Son Oisgo 111 lo Pt·ea,o NQf'th Potk Son Diego Logo.n Heights logon MtliQht~ to,odite Hitt. Bonikt Co<onodo Nalional City ,.,_ -.... Ou-, Loatw,....,, ' TN W.atow• ""'4 Yoh,-lo-g,uno ,FI -- ~Ooh • --,"llloa• U.• Ook $prin9• Legend ,,ty --North San Diego C:J North County -~-0..... Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas r Del Mar Carlsbad ~ .. Dot Job.to• Ocotillo 2.75 5.5 .L...L...J.--1 Coyot•W•lh \I Miles) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ;+ ..., ,-..J N 0 ,N "'' 1';) o.-c..,,,,.., lol<e "°'"' Rc,ncl,o --gorila L.o:QUno Wood• Mi.QtOn V.•io . ,, J'iji L.oguno Hilb r 1'4 Alita v .. jo l.aguno Niguol Son Juon Copi•trono Dona Pll:Hnt ;:; C1) 3 # N "'t1 QI 0tl C1) w ..., 0 -..., -..J w Pat;U,e Oc•1"11 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc Lolc:e Elsinoro Solano Bead EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION NORTH COUNTY, CA C-onyo,n l.oke Wildomo.t Murri .. o _,,,, .. Mu•f'-tta Hols,,ring, T.meculo North County Follbroolc JANUARY 2022 Sa .. ~--SIG The blue area represents North County Son Diego, the geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report. The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mor, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, Son Morcos, Solano Beach, Vista and a portion of northern Son Diego City. The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland ports. Svns·bin.e Sun,n,at Halcomb V;Jt.,o• ~Gron.ct. Wa,n-H -St,,inu• So"' ~nodo $on F.t,pw Randolto r~~Yto"bel Jutian -H~t, -- '--oo tlollfM>lo $ping, f'altru l otr,tgQ 0..•,1 l Legend ; ... --North San Diego CJ North County ,- Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas ~ Del Mar Carlsbad "J'" ~ ~-r<: ~~ 0osco .... Ouatoi, ~g, --°""" Son'-u~a, LoJoHo City Lo Jolla W"ff'tl•r Cor4t4n Hilt .-....,.~ Oo.-d~h,utown los:lCM'UO flocifk hoch Noc-mc:tl fo~I .$on ti4ighl1 ~ Norlh Pork Son Diego t.o90n H-,gh.1-s eo,1ooio El Cajon loM<.so llon<ho lomon Orove ~ 0,-vo 11'\' lo ...... Kl Logan Htlfghl.t- Co<onodo fQJo&w Hif1t Notional ca, lloMo ...,...,.. -loslerfeftfo1 Tho --1/n&,y 1,og..,,.. - loulff• Oc,,~ .......... _v;11oi,e Oot. t bero• Oco1tRo """'°'""~ Co~W•U• ~~k [I~ 2.75 5.5 1 1 Miles I I I I I I I 1 I 8......_d THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 n ;i" .... _-.....i N 0 N N REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD MICRO-MARKETS CARLSBAD, CA "~\ O~~ide .<:J- ..-\;, "'.. ~ --✓ "''16( ·,- !' ...___..,. _,,,· ~ E,co,id,do c I.,. -~J.,,c,;on/ Sou•h , 't;, \ . Oucm•ld. -.. ,, ' ,.,:_ ... -__ legend Village Tamarack Point South Beach Robertson_Rancho Carlsbad Rancho La Costa Poinsettia Olde Carlsbad North Beach La Costa Ridge La Costa Oaks Village La Costa Greens_Bress, Ranch_Rancho Carrillo Industrial Core_KeUy Ranch Hedionda Point Calavera Hills Barrio Aviara 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc JANUARY 2022 At•--\ Oc:.-:wtM-"al•d South Beach \ '--..I' Aviara ~-.. , .• ,,,.</ ~ \: ff,t.t~ \ _,,r\' ~ "'Co .... ,.. \. ~ :s ~-' t.ucodio ·\-iE"ncini1as .\. The city of Carlsbad has been broken down into 16 distinct neighborhoods defined loosely by the city of Carlsbad's Neighborhood Boundaries map and broken up by corresponding block groups. For the purposes of this onalysis, TCG has identified following key neighborhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential economic growth: Olde Carlsbad, The Village, and *Market name found on city of Carlsbad neighborhood boundaries map ~ $ .... ---~,. ~~ I • !i' la,~ ...... 1,o,~c, I..~ ~ ~t,.t-,.,-{ ~ s.-" ;?' '¥ .,...,_;,__; ~• ,t,_,f<r.t,._ _,Ir i""(._-"'..-:.. :l : /' /j .. ., ; ,_ "'"'~ ~-. -·1 I t--/·-.:!"' ., .~,--~. Son Mo,cos ~ _-. -~ l • § • I -~' !,_ ••• ~ ., ,.. J, ... Ofive,-hcnn- ~ loke $on flC-o,,,,i ..,_ t _.v , .. 'c,._IJ,:,, ... ~d;~ ' ·i . !( I' .. ,!' J,r1 I [,, ... -.. ··-~...,,, .. ./ :: '-',~ .. ~.,, [ ~ I I ( 0.5 L..L...J. ~Miles] ~I Yl.,_t4'0'-"• E9!~ HEf\E ~ Cc)<>PenSlrnttH, corl'lbc,ton •l'td 1M GtS I.Mr tatrtrftUl'lltY THE CONCORD GROUP I-LL <( 0::: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 ~ Q) ·-c: Q) > 0 Item #2 Page 33 of 173 DRAFT 0 n ..... ...., .:-J N 0 N N ;:;: (1) 3 # N -0 QJ (TQ (1) w ~ 0 -...., -...J w THE CONCORD G Ro UP Real_ Estate Advisors Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Prepared for The City of Carlsbad March 23rd, 2022 DRAFT 0 n ..... ~ _--.J N 0 N N ;:::;: (0 3 # N " Cl) OQ (0 w l.n 0 -~ --.J w I. MARKET OVERVIEW 1. Regional Location and Summary Findings 2. Employment A. Overall B. Industry Composition C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA comparison also) D. Employment Nodes (break between a few uses, medical, industrial) E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on distance/direction -north, south etc) F. Migration Patterns G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps) 3. Demographic Summary 4. City Demos -GDP growth, recent developments, large future projects, largest employers A. B. C. Tourism Industry Composition Major Employers RSG EDSP Carlsbad, CA 11. Ill. 2 • THE CONCORD GROUP OFFICE OPPORTUNITY 1 . Office Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial) 2. Office Demand 3. Submarket Capture Scenarios RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 1. Retail Market Performance -(Overall, Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional) 2. Retail Demand 3. Retail Opportunity Summary February 2022 21690.00 I- LL <( 0:: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 ~ Q) ·-c: Q) > 0 Item #2 Page 36 of 173 DRAFT 0 n ..... I-> ~....., N 0 ~ , .. ,. ~ Doff C-catl)'Oft Loko fol•"' RClf1Cho So--~ &.ogUno Woodi Mtflt<>n v•;o .... loguno Hilb r !! n A.Uto V .. io Laguna NJguo.l San Juon Copi .. rrono Dona Pb.nl ;:::;: ti) 3 # N "0 Qj OQ ti) w ....., 0 -I-> ....., w Pac,tic o,~,an 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc loL,£1...-o Solana Beacl Del EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION NORTH COUNTY, CA JANUARY 2022 Conyan I.alee Wildom.ot ~r-i.to ........ Muu,._to Hot Spffng• T.rnecufo North County Folbrootc ,. Sog. 71_ RodK '"""°""° Poumo Yot..., VaJie,y Center Escondido Son-~ la.loHo Clty Lo Jollo w .... , ... Corlton Hill, "~..-Ocuden.John.nown &os.to•uo Pacific S.Och Normol to~ Son H-.ghlt Oiego 8otlOfHO El Coion Lo M<oso lltoocho I.Amon Orove Sew, 0.-vc, t]1, lo Presa Nor1h Pork Son Diego Lo90n H-.ghh, Logion H,_..Qh'I• ... o&t. tiiilt, Co,onodo Nofionol City Bon,lo The blue area represents North County Son Diego, the geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report. The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mor, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, Son Morcos, Solano Beach, Vista and a portion of northern Son Diego City. The region also includes several unincorporated a reas !hot make up most of north counties more inland ports. Sundlt'"' Sur'tY(hl Hol-,,b Y~oa• Wo,~ .Sptlngt San lgnodo ll«<ogo ..... ~. 5,p,lna• ... , ... Legend Ii,-; __ North San Diego CJ North County Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas Del Mar f'ly Carlsbad SonN1iPII ftondMta 1cw·,..,o 0.-S•,t l MHoG,oncf• ~Y,ol,ol JuilOft ....,_H~!< Pifte O,ovtt .~ ao:;;;;;,. )llp5- o.....6.o Ovoloy ~· g, ...,. __ --~· -~ ~ ~ -•o..tt-• ......... ~foa<, li'w• Oak $prir\91 Pc:a,lm~, Ma,qu.,N 0.,... "J ,. Clo> l<,t..,01 O<o'flo Corot• w.n. I I t I I I I 8........,,d l,'I O 2.75 5.5 1 ; Miles I .... ,_ ··~ ...... ~~ ........ THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ~ .... ,-..J N 0 ~ '" .,., o.,,. c...,,on lolu, fo<•&l Rond,o llcffllo -~ LogUno WC>O<b Mlulon -v .. ;o ,n ~113) l.aguno HAI• Alitt0 V.-jo Laguna N.gool So,,Jvan Copi1trorM) Oona Poinl ;::; (I) 3 :ti: N .,, QJ 0Q (I) w 00 0 ..... .... -..J w Pac:tli_d Oc•flN 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc Lo.ka E1-.itl0f'O EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION NORTH COUNTY, CA Conyo,n I.alt• Wildo,nor ~ri•to Menttff MunM'to ~ Sp,,ng, T.mKUlo North County Folbroolt JANUARY 2022 Sa~ ~--a• P9v""° Von.-; The blue area represents North County San Diego, the geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, San Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista and a po rtion of northern San Diego City. The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland parts. Sun~hirw Sumnul HofCOMb v.woe• o;-8on-ti0II Wo,nw .$~.ng• Solano Bead c., Unh.,..i4f La Joi4o City Lo Jo.Yo ~flc.S.Odt Volte-, C•n,-, Escondido Son,.. W'tnlff Cortlon Hitt Rhretvi...., Ocud..,.. 8os:Jon-o Boslon.t0 El C-aion No,mc,J f:cnl Son ..._ighlt. 0 ieoo, lo-Ron<ho lemon Oro"'• Son 0,-s;io Noflh Pork Son Diago logon H .. ght'l ''1 Lo l'Teso Logan H.ighls. Coronodo Notional City ...,_ Htlk 9onlk:I Son ignodo San Nttpa Rond,lk, .... Ml• Bon.oo ,.,,,.,. Spti"Sf.l, MHoGtott.ff ~ Sonla Ytcl&.I Jvbo11 -H~J. ".,.~ "'\..... O..COMO 0vmo, --1 l..o.lwf-.Mo• %29' n.. w-..a1q,iw, Pao. Vciia.y Loouno --- 9ouldo,O., ... ......... "l!1oo• U\'e Oak Sprin$S Legend r..., --North San Diego C=:J North County --°"'"" ,oam O,o,,, 8~ [~ Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas Del Mar t'" Carlsbad "'::::7 " 0.,, Jot-01 Ocotillo Coyote w.at. 2.75 5.5 ~1 Miles} THE CONCORD GRO UP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 t"l rT I-' ,-..J "-' 0 "-' "-' REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD MICRO-MARKETS CARLSBAD, CA '" o c'}..~id• ·~.-~-~"~~ . ~ > ·-.. , (~_,..--:,,, ... -~ ,\ £Kor.dido .~•'t \i' J~9<tion~ ~;,\; South ; ·• .. ., Legend Village Tamarack Point South Beach Robertson_Rancho Carlsbad Rancho La Costa Poinsettia Olde Carlsbad North Beach La Costa Ridge La Costa Oaks Village La Costa Greens_Bressi Ranch_Rancho Canillo Industrial Core_KeUy Ranch Hedionda Point Calavera Hills Barrio Aviara 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc ""·"""- -Ot.«iwde 8fvJ---- .It i: ~ JANUARY 2022 So uth Beach ;\ '----..I' Aviara ~ ...... .,. _r -\~-~~e-1\1\ ,,,,.•.---_ a<>t;: l ·))L;!.! ;\ --V",.,..,.~oJ.· '"1. ·-z"; ... -. 1 IAu«>dio " ,,o,!.,,. ...... .Yi.do ... ft..:-,~~· "'~: ul .,. The city of Carlsbad has been broken down info 16 distinct neighborhoods defined loosely by the city of Carlsbad's Neighborhood Boundaries map and broken up by corresponding block groups. ~ .... For the purposes of this analysis, TCG hos identified following key neighborhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential economic growth: Olde Carlsbad, The Village, and *Market name found on city of Carlsbad neighborhood boundaries map .~· r ~ '" • p -~-~~-~-d i -R• ...: ~---· .... _.:_l . 1 ;---:-._;._ Son Mo,ccs _,.-'•~·, ·"' ........ ~~ ~-' . . ·~ t ,, ... J.o,. -: .... .,._. __ t ~· ( ~---\.--~ti' .:,.. .;-·-: i 3, t oke $on ,,.,.,;U'-"'' ~' l...'1<><..,.... ....... -~ . ..,· J. ~ -~--"-. ·, .. A#)f"'h, l.',p•'/1 •c•, • I> .... . ...,. J \ \ '-}/ ·~ ~/ .;:..,,_11_ ~,10 lt:d , .... "- • ~:·•~ /12 -(.~ ,1.,,. , ......... , ... ...... L .... _,.,,,. '-__,,,-.../ ~.,. / ..,,.. ~ § z ... .,.. , ' Otiver,hai Eic 1 •"!-inov.,t'O",., ' [ ~ I I I 0.5 ~ ~ ~les] &11 HERE GaNriM\, (c)()penScrfftMIOCOf'lrc,utOrt 1no 1:M QS UNI'°"'~ THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n :'" I-' ,'-I flffdotralC... -..nvRan«-E5.,_...., - kA AMl:l1t~"9nclllllwe RAA.es.ld_,,._..Atlnc~ It-A R.,._tGMIWA$tflC..-i.lOJ -RC f\~Ru.dw!WCNllte N 1 Ot1•F-llyR;.-.Hd""°•I R-1 or1.r...-.yttihJd..,.,., A I On•F--•rR.,..,~ A , 0"• ,.._.,y A.-.teraU.1 11-t On•fa.lWRM~ R I On♦ f"amff R_,.Kl.-t~ M-t. O"• r.-,tyf\-ic:tentw A·J Oft♦ ,-._,ty Rff11C1.-.1t.t N: I On••--.,.-Ro1t•ideftt~ f( I 0"•►-itvR-.dent_. '1-1, On• F~~ A"ff.o.,tl>ioi A 1 Qfllef"-itvJt•iud•llt:.I R-1 OneF-ilyR~«I~ R 2. Two r .. ..,.R-JOe.111•1 R-l , wva,,-.,..,AtttC11t<fle- R >.Uuit+F--•yR-.«s-tat -qo-u q•~lffnt_. ~-.ity -¥~ -AO M A.,._td•nt..i U-.1Uly Mull ... -AO--MtCsl AM~41 Mutl~'lOC.,6tl<,tf» C.,.19r -AMHP A•~ .Uoa.fa 11-• P•di: ft r A•~ldttm_, To1t1tt.1 -A-W.R4~I-Wicecway -R P-0, R ... tCI ...... f>.offf"'""91 --tiC PO.H"od~Pn,-•ocwil 0 o .... C ,tll,)IC•1 O--f.Mf,.,H$10l'lbO~Co.~~ C 1 OIC :t c;.,._..aN-.t-.DootttCNdC....,_.n.»! MOM,C•I Conl.fl'll"...._'N:e•().n....-y.M..-111lo P-M~~INI~ P-M Plenf'lNI 11\dtD~ P .U "O Pa+nlMMJ lwl,d1,1t;ff\ttl;'O IUQ PU P.lbacUICC-f' P-.G. ,.,..,..,_. COftlftlun,:Y l C,le-.eo,moi -o• o ... ,,.,_ -I C Tr.~tQftCot,dOf 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD LAND-USE BREAKOUT CARLSBAD, CA ,\ ... ,,.,..~-,. ... "' .. ~ _,. ..... .-0"' OteGflll ....... ,t ,.~ JANUARY 2022 o,v 0 O" '\_ , ..... •.,w ,,A ./' .,.,,, tJ' '"-\.,. we..-n.,(loti•Q, "I-.... i 'i! "' ·~-·"' ., Vis.to 0 ., ld,do Ion ..... ,.ci' u: ....... A-foa," v,..to o, ,~"'•c;'.-•• , ... Lrucodio ,. _ .. ~~ ,_\ ~ .. , ... u.tii,.I ., '~ f Ol1vc-nho1n br <>' ~....i't &oeno ~ ~ • Loke Son Morco• .. • ~ ..i .. ,;-t-_f ., ' l ';. -.-1:'-l"f(d ·- A Twiu Ookt ; ~ ,t ...... . '- • <-. c-.. ..,._.Q o~• ~l p w._,.-, •• Rold-fll.\ ., i I { '· .. t j Son Morcos ,.---~ ,\. -~~ \'. . •"""v ~, .. C ..n.-.11 .-' , ,, '~ .. ~ Land-Use Boundaries as of December 2020 0.5 [~ ~ Miles] rfnc1nito1 -o..,, .. o '4tl"'"'~ £.,fl Uf A[ f'J.ttfftlttt tc,O~· .. S1'NtM.Ol4"'1fiOtA.Ofl. .,wi,, .. oiSu'\4t(.Qfl'tn1~1>•y TI-iE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n -...., ,-....i It C t:t.,,,_. RH-de"'tlMJ C•1•i. M 1 On•f"MI-VR-_..,,t.i R-1 011•F..-•-,R~...., A I O.-.F-•'(R-l!Mfllal A l 011• r-1'yR6Md.,.1i..1 M 1 One ,__ity •~-o.n,_. It , 0-u• r _,v R_m.,,tia1 tl-1 011.F..,-r,,,fy~~tCJ~ A:-1 On•r .. .,,.R~iO ... lhl,$ f(.t 011•f •M,YRMICl~hal A t On• f-1tyk-,.1Ctant.1 'I~ I , Ofl• f ..... IJy RfftO~t•I R 1 O·t1• Fam,ty R._....,_.. R~t O"• F.,..,YR .. tl:19:0..- R 2 l wo f a,pi4y R•s-,.nl•I R-.1. MWIII f .. .., R•sid♦fltw ft-'l , M..-1 f-•ffltfy R-ld•:111_... RO•"' "•1o11C1•nt-, 0...Stfy M~ AO U A.,_~, 0.-Uv Uw•""" PrndfM, ftO-MlC--f.. A~O.ftSllly u ..-.-c:,w,lout$JIOP ("~l♦r IUrif.MP M:.s,iOIN!lfl•t MOIi .. ttot11-• P•ri. R~P.Q, Rhidffl.i Ptof+l~ C 1 0t C 1 Ci~• Nel(ll'IDOfllOOO c ... ,.,,..-c.t '10 M.C-1 CoMl'ft roc.t&t'R•~ o.n....,. MUlllflle P-U ,._.,._..-4 lnd.v•tt,- P--U .,_.,,.H~'i:t.NII P -M "I) PS4t-nNO "'dt,H,l,_.,"O ffiU P-U Pubk: Ul&cy f'..C Plfwo.f'IHCO-tn"tt<y t G.lan._.Got'ltfal -0 6 Opea~•t,e -1 C T rw,~ CtNrdM 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD LAND-USE BREAKOUT CARLSBAD, CA \: •; .,,,... .... ,....-, ,d,do .f ;.: -> ~-0'"' Oce01<•dM t'iJ014 "" JANUARY 2022 0,..0-0 0""" '\ ,,. .... •,r .,.-... ~ if Levcodio ,,.--·· i 1fnc•nitos w~~ Ot cM•Q. -t. ~ .. \ '? cl Visto 0 ._:-........ c. tf~1 .. v, ... atti o' t 8U<l)oo ..,_o_,.,, ~ • Lake San Morcos .. ~ ... ........ ~<"r••♦ ... .. ~ -~. .... :·O' Twto Oolo ., • ~ • .i ~;~ l ~~ {'o,JD¥.(t 4 ·- .& '!!' • (f>('f' "• ... 11 ~1 S' Wt,J,._,w., ~d--~ / Son Morcos ~ ~ , .......... c- ('\ 'i •. , .. , .. C:,-11,111 .,· . , ..... ...._,, . ., Land-Use Boundaries as of December 2020 [~ 0.5 L....I. ~Miles] Oli~hom CJ~ • .,,.,.o"",~~ l.'-' ltfRE 0.tMtt< IOC'IOoMli5'-l'N'tM-H ~r~"40fl •1'4 "*of"US .,,..,,.., Utftlnt,,ic.•y THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n !"'T .... _--.J N 0 N N Oceanside Transit Center Carlsbad Village Coastal Stop EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD SURROUNDING TRANSIT CARLSBAD, CA c-,., '. IJ, ~1 oy.~'l• Carl,bad ,:_.,.~.,.,,.,. "- JANUARY 2022 ) .. ~ .... "°"' ... d' ... McClellan-Palomar Vitto .... I, ,.!' .----~ ,.J ~ --"'fbt\f., v,,.~ D- ,. .... , ..... ,_.,.,.en<-' 1,..-' ~ -• l~k" $or MOrco-. ~·"1"· ~ "",. Twin Oaks • '•we~ o~., ii" 11 ""~ I ! p N lu>J•-,, ,;JJ 8o, ci•n ~ _..........._ -! Soft Mar<os j ., -~. ~a. "'' l ~ .&JI..,,.• '·- ' V 11.f c. .. ,,~; ' .(~ '\ ~',J,..t.11 ·~ Yellow Dotted Lines: ;::;: (I) 3 :it N Pac1f1cl legend Ocar1sbad1 (I) .i:,. 'I Rail Intercity Stations N o· Bus -+, ~Rail w Tram, Streetcar, Light rail 21690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc Carlsbad Blvd & Poinsettia Ln Stop ,ir!.4.JCOdiu ~ ~Enun,ioe- .. ~a,•7 /) 1 OGvenhoUI (t1 Cq.,...,,. •~1•'°'"" ... Mf't"o'd • .. ~-A Represent various bus routes that run through Carlsbad and the surrounding cities Red Solid Line: Represents the Coaster Commuter Rail that passes through Carlsbad with a station in the Carlsbad Village and a station in Oceanside [~ 0.5 L....L.....L ~Mile•] EVt ti[Rf '>lirntM 1c)OP91"15U•~•0<OMf"'4,lfQ,t,.,,om.(;1S~,;llffln11 • .,,,, THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,... ...... _-..J -N~ 0 N fQ.aan,tet. q, / • t.. ..... ido Jun&o,, .,,... ..... .,, I Village I,...;; "'--.... Iii' l EXHIBIT 1-1 REGIONAL LOCATION NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL PROFILE CARLSBAD ~ .... ~ .~ " . V!"'"w.,,. ~1•°' J JANUARY 2022 Village • Residential densities established in 2007 permit homes to be built in a manner appropriate for small downtown. • Residential and commercial uses may exit side-by-side or in an mixed use format Buildings maybe attached or detached, and located near the front property line, or allow for an area for either small courtyards, outdoor dining or open space, and/or additional landscaping. Olde Carlsbad .. c.,J Olde Carlsbad I , '\ • Olde Carlsbad is the city's oldest neighborhood, doting to the late 1800s, Up on the hills, there ore still some historic homes with views of the ocean. • Further west, streets have a mix of mid-20th-century bungalows, cottages, and tract homes. • Apartments and Condos along El Camino Real ore close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining. l. . ~ '\. r'~~ _., ..._,_._-:-,_.,.. ~"' ~ South Beach ;::; (l) 3 :ti: N .,, DJ 0tl (l) ~ OJ 0 --,, I-' -..J OJ Source: TCG P..:,,,c o~-•~•" 21554 .00 Maps: Neighborhoods 1 \/ -:'.iv ,j•~. Fo,t \ \ Industrial Core V ~ ~ • Nestled between Interstate 5 and the Pacific Ocean • Residential is a mixture of several beochfront Moster planned communities and mobile home pork • Homes along Poinsettia Ln ore close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining. • • Industrial Core • Apartments and single family residences located at north corner of the area with spectacular Ocean views and easy access to work and olfroctions. ' 'Poinsettia/ Aviara • Set in the hills of Southern Carlsbad, overlooking the Pacific Ocean and Batiquitos Lagoon. • The community is mostly residential, Many properties hove views of the ocean, Botiquitos Lagoon, and Avioro golf course. -, •·t" Most of the homes in Avioro ore fairly new, having been built in the 90s. There hos been limited new construction in Avioro (one exception is Vista Del Mar) but several newer subdivisions (The Boy Collection, Emerald Point) hove been built nearby. Avioro ,. c_.....,. [ ~ ?-~2~-~s1 ~3~~1 Page 1 of 2 Avioro homes ore primarily tract housing, with each community offering a number of floor plans, but o consistent look of style (primarily Spanish and Mediterranean) and feel. THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 REGIONAL LOCATION -KEY NEIGHBORHOOD RATIONALE CARLSBAD n r' .... JANUARY 2022 listoricolly popular locot.On for reloil ~elopment. Highest shore of Accommodations and Food Services job sector within the city (2019). This Sector is the second highest N mployment sector within the city of Corlsbod. • "il!istoricol Development mop shows a high concentration of retail and office development in o relatively small pocket that makes up the village neighborhood across all observed decodes predoting the 197C1s. Highest level of annual net absorption at 7 .dk SF with overage NNN asking rents of $42 and o five year overage growth of 9.5%. All metrics indicate o currently strong retail morlcet From 2019-202 {COV10-l9 recession) NNN incremed 34% to $45, but hove since hod a corr-ection in 2021 dropping 8%. Future Demand in the Village is negative -455 SF onnuoUy, indicating o slight overKl!lurotion in the market for naw retail space. Conclusion: The Village is o key ~4!Pf~_iV tourism hub within the city with strong rents, plenty of retail/ eatery type employment and resiliency to COVID related economic forces. ~ Similor to the Village, Olde Corisbod has historicolly b.en on area of high levels of retail and office development ocross the lost frve-six decodes. The strongest local employment s&dor in Olde Corlsbod is the Retail sector followed by the Accommodations and Food Services s&dor. Olde Carlsbad is one of a few neighOOrhoods within the city that sow positive net absorption of retail spaces over the lost four quarters with NNN asking rents at a strong $39. Future retail demand for Olde CaNsbod is o positive 12K annually, indicating o need for new retail spoce lo occommodote for the growing populofion and HH base of that neighborhood. Sou1h Beach located on the Pacific coastline and bookended by the i-5 freeway, most of South Beach's historical retail and office development hos occurred along the freeway. • One of the lowest NNN retail spoce asking rents at $24, indicative of the neighborhoods lock of doss A retail s.poce. • Future retail demand for South Beoch is. pos.itive SK annualfy • Office market voconcy rotes ore at o low of 2.6%, the lowed of all observed time-periods. and hove not seen any new deliveries since 2009. Industrial Core The Industrial Core is the employment hub of the city and considering the high inflow of doily commuters, the employment hub of the major surrounding cities. As of 2019 the industrial core •mploys the most individuals across the citie5 top employment sectors, ir-.cluding !he lop two sectors, Manufacturing and Profeuioncl Serv. Industrial Core is the community with highest level of office inventory by SF at 3.4M SF as of 1022 Unlike most neighborhoods surveyed, and having the highest level of current office inventory, the industrial core hos experienced a positive five year overage of annual positive net absorption (SF) Industrial Core is attaining on overage of $31 in gross direct rents for office spoce over the last five years, relatively the middle of thee. of all observed neiQhborhoods. _J L!,.,.~ - Poinsettia neighborhood currently has the second highest level of office space at 1. lM SF Ou1side of 2020-21, Poinsettia has experienced mostly positive annual net obsofption. Future annual retail demand is at a slight negative ot -39 SF annually. Poinsettia and Aviora ore attaining the highest level of NNN retail asking rflnts SS 1 and $48 respectively with low vacancy rotes of 0.8% (Aviara) and 2.3% (Poinsettia~. The overall average NNN asking rents in Carlsbad overall is $39, considerably lower. • f't6imilor to Industrial Core, Rcncho Lo Costa has a hi9h concentration of employment in-C0~fsbocts top five key sectors with its highest share of employment in the 3-etoil ond accommodation and food services s.edor. • #oncho la Costa also hos a high NNN retail asking rant compared to other observed neighborhoods at $48 • "1tuture annual retail demand for Rancho Lo Costa is ot I Sk likely due to lower levels of inflow of spending from outside of the area compared to other neighborhoods sud, as the industrial core with o very high level of inflow spending resuhing in o net negative need for additional retail spoce. " QI MO+i M•itttiiffiNttfflM South~ Beach Industrial Corridor Aviora OQ lflH 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,014 3,116 4,739 'lC>ol Carl,bad 4.4% 8.1% 4.0% 2.3% 7,1% 10.7% .i:, bWol Jobs 4,957 4,709 5,117 26,095 2,420 12,956 ,-.,1 Carlsbad 6.3% 6.0% 6.5% 33.4% 3.1% 16.6% --.J -fo'p Seeton ( 1 ) 3,425 2,087 2,805 13,078 1,720 4,335 7,035 15.9% 4,993 6.4% 4,095 % of Total Jobs 69,1% 44.3% 54.8% % of Carlsbad 50.1% 71.1% 33.5% 82.0% 9.0% 5.5% 7.4% 34.5% 4.5% (1) Top S.dors include: R:•toil Trade, Information, Prof./ Sc:i•ntific: S.rv., He,clthccre, Arts & Enter and Accomodation and Food Servtals. 21554.00 Mop,: Neighbomood, (3) Pogo 2 ol 2 11.4% 10.8% ' . 0.--./9 ~.,., ...... \ ·-· -,., .\" ·=-._.., ._, --, ~\· I Olde Ca,l,bod ..::::::...J c ....... "' •,. ,,i' r:::::.." ,:- -..._ - 4 ~--,;.. lndustrtol Core .,.,,.., \,;,, '-.. \.=- ,I .f,.~,< ..... c"' ____ _, -:...__,/ I Poin5etfio f':. •• • Avioro ,_..,. -G lo~ t e-::-... ~s..· · .. • .,...._ ' j ., ~ Subtotals ~ 23,177 44,107 52.5% 61,247 78,135 78.4% 23,115 37,920 37.7% 61.0% Source: TCG THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 n .-T ..... ,-..J SITE ASSESSMENT CARLSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 ~ Characteristics N N ;::; ('I) 3 :ti: N • Regional Location + Major Coastal City within San Diego's North County Region. + Surrounded by 5 of the major cities in the North County region whom all have strong portions of their employment base traveling into Carlsbad for work including: Oceanside and Vista to the North, San Marcos and Escondido to the east, and Encinitas to the south. • Accessibility and Surrounding Area + Two major freeways run through the city of Carlsbad, the interstate 5 freeway running along the coast north and south bound, and the 78 highway that runs along the northern border of the city running east to west. + Access to the coaster commuter rail with a stop in the village neighborhood of Carlsbad offering residents alternative transportation access to surrounding sites and employment nodes. Rail connects Carlsbad to southern San Diego with final stops in the downtown core and as far north as Los Angeles. • Employment • Employment Sectors + In the San Diego Metro, Professional Services Employment industries saw the least impact during COVID-recessionary period of 2020. Industry shows the least growth potential but a key sector of data processing is showing strongest growth and shift share potential within the Professional Services industry. + Medical employment industries also experienced considerable declines in 2020. but with potential overall forecasted growth on par with the San Diego metro employment overall. Notable sectors of this indisutry include: Dental Offices ('19-'20 -12%) , Nursing and Residential Care ('19-'20 -5%), and Medical and Diagnostic Labs ('19-'20 -6.5%) -Tourism and recreation based employment in the San Diego metro were significantly impacted during 2020. Forecasted growth is strong, but tourism industry overall will not recover all COVID related job losses in the next five years. -o • Overall Assessment QJ OQ ('I) .i:,. V, 0 ...., ..... -..J w + Opportunity to continue growth of key neighborhoods such as the employment rich industrial core. Several companies look to either expand their footprint or relocate to the city of Carlsbad in the coming years in key industries such as biotech and communication, making the area a prime location for high earning jobs. + In the city of Carlsbad, forecasted population growth of households earning over $1 DOK annually over the next five years is strong and should further fuel the need for employers offering high earning jobs in moderate to higher-end office space. Evaluation G G G G Note: Scores based on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a competitive disadvantage and 5 being a competitive advantage to local area comparable 21690.00 Site Evol: Sum THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 (") ...... ..... ,-..J RETAIL SUMMARY CARLSBAD , CA JANUARY 2022 r-:iEmployment Characteristics N • Carlsbad's retail sector is anchored by several key retail nodes: Carlsbad Premium Outlets (South Beach Neighborhood), The Forum at Carlsbad (Rancho Lo Cosio Neighborhood), Carlsbad Plaza South (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), The Shoppes at Carlsbad (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), and Village Faire (Village Neighborhood). • Historically, Carlsbad hos also enjoyed a reosonobly strong tourism sector that feed's into retail activity for the city. • The Son Diego-Carlsbad MSA experienced significant declines in tourism and retail trade employment sectors due lo COVID-recession forces. • From 2010-2019 of the major cities observed in North County, Carlsbad (9.9% annualized growth) was only outpaced by Son Morcos (11.2% annualized growth) in shift shore and annual job growth in the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Sector. • At the Son Diego-Carlsbad MSA level, Leisure and Hospitality and Accommodation and foods services sectors ore poised for the strong snap-bock from the COVID-recession period with a ll exceeding 7% annualized job growth and over 10% growth in shift shore. over the next five year period. Retail Characteristics • Carlsbad hos over 5M SF of retail space. It hos the highest amount of retail space among all the major cities surveyed in North County. • Though occupancy rotes ore slightly down over the post two years ('20 92.3% vs '21 9 1.5%) the five year overage hos hovered just over 95% and the ten year overage at 96%. • Of the neighborhoods surveyed within Carlsbad, the Industrial core a nd South remained relatively resilient to COVID-recession forces with occupancies that increased during the recession period to upwards of 98%. The Village was less resilient during the onset of COVID-recession restrictions (86.6%), but hos since recovered to just over 94% with a five year historical overage of 95%. ~ • As of 2021 NNN lease rotes in Carlsbad ($37 .6 1) greatly exceed the North County overage 3 ($25.39) and is highest among the surrounding major cities surveyed. :it • The Industrial Core and Village ore both achieving $42 NNN lease rotes with Olde Carlsbad N close behind with $39 NNN Iese rotes. Demand • Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture just 12K SF of future ";J/ demand annually, and according to current opportunity gaps hos over -330K SF of ~ unfulfilled retail space, due to high level of inflow spending form outside of the city. ~ • Considering that tourism a ccounts for a portion of retail spending and further toking into ~ account the high level of employee inflow to Carlsbad from surrounding cities, there ore ;: several categories that ore experiencing leakage, in particular with key retail categories such as -..J eating and drinking establishments and clothing and accessories stores. W • These categories hove some of the highest leakage in Carlsbad neighborhoods that ore either historical more tourist oriented ( South Beach, Village ) or hove a high concentration employment node (Industrial Core). 21690.00 Site Eval: Retail <-~ ... > .. ~ ., ·'\_ -CZ)~ I ~ o O 0~ ·; ·~: :: y ... Retail Development Heat Map as of February 2022 ~-} r--r\.. ·o •• • • • ,:7:J!;:~o ~~~~ ${-• • •' ~-V[ .•• I a ~ • "<it.~. 9 '!"-. .. ~ {>/ --JiJtj~ . $ Q.. .. •4i .. ~ 0 ' • "~ .. • •o c,_r f ... . • ,000-1),0UO ·~.· 0 t.rw{ ~---•· • n.000.JO.ooo •. .,.... e • J -1 . .;;; i,1 \-\':-1 . f;:-; -. • 1~~~-~ .. r ..... l . _ ....... .,_.,,-,-.,.~ -··-- 2021 Son Diego MSA Employment 2% 3% 1% 7% 15% ■ Professional & Business SefVices • Leisure & Hospitality ■ Retail Trade ■ Financial Activities ■ Construdion ■ Other Services (except Public Admin.) ■ Natural Resources &. Mining 13% ■ Education & Heohh Services Government ■ Manufacturing ■Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Wholesale T rode ■ Information THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ...... ,_. ,-..J NConclusion EXHIBIT 1-1 RETAIL SUMMARY CARLSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 N • Despite COVID-recessionary forces, Corlsbad will continue to have a moderately strong retail and tourism employment base. As other office/ manufacturing employment nodes continue to develop coupled with a growing population and HH base ('2 l -'26 2.5% growth), the continued need for moderate to high-end retail space with various dining and shopping options. The inland regions that are more residential oriented may benefit most from new large scale retail spaces that are closer to home rather than traveling to more coastal areas that have well established large retail nodes. The employment rich industrial core will also benefit from more walkable retail spaces that offer various types of eateries and boutique shopping experiences. ...... (t) 3 :ti: N -0 OJ O'Q (t) .,. -...J 0 -,_. -..J w 21690.00 Site Evol: Retail u::--~ .. Q) -~ -~ ai 0 --u C: 0 C: 0 Q. 0 .. .!l <( ~ z ~ V) ' ~ Q) ~ Q) .. 0 Q) _, 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 $50 $45 $40 $30 $25 Carlsbad Annual Retail Vacancy/ Absorption/ Deliveries 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -Absorption -Deliveries ... o ccupancy Retail Annual lease Rate (NNN) 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 201 7 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 ... THE CONCORD GRO UP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 n ;'" I-' _-...i OFFICE SUMMARY CARLSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 rvEmployment Characte ristics N • Carlsbad's office use largely consists of medical, and financial/ professional services. • Carlsbad holds o higher concentration of jobs than its surrounding four cities, which lends itself to a higher inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad who do not reside within Carlsbad. As of 2019 19% of all Carlsbad employment was concentrated in Finance/ Real Estate/ Prof. Services sector, positions that are traditionally performed in an office setting. The next closest being Encinitas at 13% of its employment base filling these roles. • Carlsbad also holds a high concentration of individuals employed in the health care profession, with over 5,000 individuals employed in the sector accounting for 8% of total employment in Carlsbad. Of the four surrounding cities they are only second to Oceanside with 7,000 individuals employed in the sector, accounting for 15% of their total employment. • Key employment sectors of note that have experienced relative resilience during COVID and ore poised for future growth are: Data Processing ('16-'2 1 11.7% growth, 21-'26 4% forecasted growth) with a forecasted shift share of nearly 18% over the next five years. Several medical field office use saw significant declines during the initial COVID-recession period, but are since recovering with a few poised for growth in the next five year period. Outpatient care centers ('19-'20 3.5% growth, '21 -'26 3.3% forecasted growth) saw growth during COVID-recession period, with strong forecasted shift share of nearly 8% over the next five year period. (Note growth metrics are at the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Level) Office Characteristics (Class A) • North County has over 11 M SF of doss A office space and Carlsbad hos over 2M SF of doss A office space. Year-to-date North County hos had a total net absorption of 232K SF while Carlsbad hos had 18K SF. • COVID-Recession had a significant impact on net absorption for Carlsbad with a dip to -56K in 2020, whereas in 2018 net absorption reached 289K and 2019 168k, showing some sensitivity to economic downturn. ;:::.: • Carlsbad is currently achieving $34.20 in direct rents while North County is achieving $44.1 1 3 • The majority of the office space within Carlsbad is doss B product at just over 5M SF space :ii, compared to the 2M SF of doss A. COVID-Recession did hove on impact on net absorption of N doss B product but did not decline to negative until 2021, showing slightly more resiliency during the recession, but there seems to be o shift in preference in office space towards doss A product considering that net absorption for doss A product increased to 18K SF in 2021 '?J after its drop in 2020. ~Demand .i::,. • Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture nearly 124K SF of :;i future demand of North County. Of the nine major cities that make up North County, ....., Carlsbad is poised to capture the highest share of North County with Son Marcos coming in ~ close second at 102K SF. W • Despite having the highest potential capture of office space in North County, Carlsbad is showing one of the lower shores of potential pipeline throughout North County at only 50,000K SF compared to Son Marcos planning the highest amount of pipeline at 1 .4M SF. 21690.00 Site Eval: Office .. I • ~ 'o \ ,1 Office Development Heat Mop as of February 2022 .. • I .... . . ,. ... _.._ ... -~ '··,., -• ♦ ' <'" •••• ei;,: O! ~ o . '$' .It • ~~-::;·r§;'i .,-.2010 -.~ : ,... .,,,. .. . .. \~ i,lo~,~-0 <P~· o·•••:: ~ • ~1'·,,. ••~i~·:· y •:•• '--• ..... ... _J..... •• ~--.. • . II • IQ.OOP-U.000 e 12.a--.000 .Cl,000-10.000 .10.000·11\000 .115,000-IIQ.GI» • 18Q.OOO••,tOOD ~ \.. q ~ __., -✓,: o• ·r • 0--4,Q.000 t!-' . . ,. . , .• •.~~· ' ~ lt::..:........:-·1 2021 San Diego MSA Employment 2% 3% lo/o 7% 15% ■ Professional & Business Services ■ Leisure & Hospitality ■ Retail T rode ■ Financial Adivities ■ Constrvdion ■ Other Services {except Public Admin.) ■ Natural Resources & Mining 13% ■ Education & Heohh Services Government ■ Manufacturing ■ Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Wholesale Trade ■ lnforma1ion THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1 0 n ,.... OFFICE SUMMARY CARLSBAD I CA JANUARY 2022 Of said demand, a subcategory of office space of note is the 'flex' space uses. This subcategory is defined by two key industries: Scientific R&D and Warehousing, both of which show the highest levels of potential demand in office space in the county from 2021-22, but will toper off in the following seven years observed. Scientif R&D is of particular note in that the category includes life sciences office spaces, on office space in Son Diego that is in high demand over the lost several years. Conclusion ;:::;: It) 3 :tt N -i::, QJ O'Q It) +=> I.O 0 -~ -.J OJ • Overall the city of Carlsbad is a hub of employment for the major surrounding cities, its higher level of inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad but do not reside in Carlsbad only further fuels potential demand for high end class A office space. Carlsbad hos shown moderate/ steady growth in direct rents annually over the lost 3 year period and relative resiliency in those asking rents through the COVID-recession period. Despite holding a considerably larger shore of current class A office compared to the surrounding cities, there is still potential for further growth as demand for this particular use is higher than the surrounding cities in North County. As the economy continues to reopen, workers will flow bock into offices. Employers will look to differentiate themselves such as procuring a state-of-the-art office space with all of the amenity and working spaces desired and that ore becoming more common place in todays evolving office environment. 21690.00 Site Evol: Office Ci:' ~ .,, .! ~ -~ "'i 0 " C: a C: .Q 1i 0 "' .0 <( 'i z ~ >-;:::. ~ u e i5 c .. ""' .,, "' e l!) Carlsbad Annual Class A Office Vacancy/ Absorption/ 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -1 00 2017 2018 -Absorption Deliveries 2019 2020 -Deliveries 2021 2022 ~Occupancy 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% Class A Office Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $40 34.2 $35 1-------33.43-------3273 3 1 66 3 1.82 $30 $25 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ~Carlsbad THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ..... 1--' ,-..J N 0 N N ;:::;: 11) 3 :ti: N "'C OJ OQ 11) V, 0 0 -1--' -..J w -;;;- 0 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 ~ $250,000 Ol C: 'o C: (I) 0. V> c $200,000 (I) " "iii ~ $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 EXHIBT 1-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT -RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY -RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE CALRSBAD, CA Carlsbad Copocily ■ Carlsbad Actual Soles Full Service Restaurants JANUARY 2022 Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales -Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Restaurant & Drinking Places Spending Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) Food & Beverage Store Spending Supermarkets and Other Grocery Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor~ Stores Catere/ Mobile) I ----------------------------------- 21690.00 Retail Demond: Demand -NGAFOl The Concord Group DRAFT 0 n ~ I-> ,-..J N 0 N N ;:; (I) 3 :it N ~ QJ O'Q (I) u, I-> 0 -+, I-> -..J w $400,000 Carlsbad Capacity ■ Carlsbad Actual Soles $350,000 $300,000 .;;-8 $250,000 Q. 0) C ii ai $200,000 Q. C/) c Q) il $150 000 Q) , "" $100,000 $50,000 $0 e"' . ., . e ~ ~,e o'' ~~o .,.,o o<:' <l,<:' (.,(.,<l, ~o' J::-~ ~'?' ~<l, lxo ~ 6" <;)(u ·,<:' <l,( ~ <l,<:' ()° (j 0\ 0~ EXHIBT 1-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT -RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales ----------------------------- GAFO Non -GAFO ~~ ----------------------------~ ~ ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ -~ ~ i5' ~,,:,-~ # ~ if ~ if / ~ # if r§ '<v Q'< '::Q-\ 0~ ~ (\ r,.O ~o ~o c.,· 0~ '<'-0 ~ ';:Q ~ <l, <l, 0 ~ v"'0 -,c.,"' to ·-It'"'' 'Qoo (Joe ~ '{rt}' o<l,<:' ~ a<:' o"' if ~ c.,e"' ~ (S-~0 if o0 c.:,->'< ~ '{'-o ~ ~(j 0 ~<u (j e ~o ~ o . ~C/J -~ ~f ,,,_1u ·,<:-x--0 -~o' J::-'<:-O 'Qe -~ ->' Ro ~ <;>\' '{) ~ J ~ «o ~<:'<?, '<_,◊ Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other 21690.00 Retail Demond: Demond -Copocityl The Concord Group DRAFT 0 n ..... I-' ~-..J N 0 N N EXHIBT 1-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT -CURRENT RESIDENT SPENDING GAP CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Resident Spending Gap $200,000 I Carlsbad Spending Gap I [ GAFO r----~---------------------, $150,000 8 $100,000 0 £ Q. 0 c.'.) l sso,ooo 0 V, ~ Ol C 'o C Q) Q. V, c Q) ""O ·.;; Ji ;::;: C'D 3 $0 -$50,000 ~ -$100 ,000 Negative spending gap indicates inflow of spending from outside the resident base (employees, visitors etc.) and outflow of resident spending to outside areas - - L-...J '-- w I Non -GAFO I ..--, - " T:J" .___ ,'l,"' • 'l,., • .,'l, ... 'l, 'l,., ~., ., • <, ~ ,~p .,o'-' ~o' -~v ~G O ,'l, <,' 'l,'-J -;..~ 'l, ~<, "> ~ 'l,., x:-0 «_v'<:-/f"o ~o 90 ~.::, 90( ,o<:-c.l ~,o o''l, ~ # & ~ ~ ~ ~ / ~ -0 ~'l, ~e,C 'l,,c Q) 0,::: ~ ~~ QQ p ~ -~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ ~ C'D ,l~ . -:-<?> .._o -;;_,:-' 'l, o-:-o"' if ~ {/ ., ~'l, .._oil, .._ V, ◊cf-0/Z,-:- 6-0 ~ C,'l, ~ 0 "1.(:-'l, N ~(l; 00 ~v ~ ~,o "I.(:-~(j o" tZ,' ~ 'l, ~ ~ ~ 0 0:/$' -~<?> ~f .,_tZ, -~(?, --?-,<li "b~ -+, ~' 0 'Q'l, ~ -~ I-' ~o ~ ~,<:-'Q"'' -..J C:, 0 () w 00 ~ '< . ,:-<?> '-<,&' Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other 21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand -Gap 7 ----- o' ~$ ~'l,( '<'-0 0 v'(l; The Concord Group DRAFT 0 ~ I-' ~-....J N 0 N N ;:::;: (t) 3 :it N "'O Q) O'Q /'D V, w 0 ...... I-' -....J w $200,000 $1 50,000 -;;;-0 $1 00,000 0 Q. a. 0 l'.) "' a, 0 (/) vi $50,000 > Ol C 'o C a, a. (/) c a, ""Cl $0 ·;;; a, Cl<'. -$50,000 -$100,000 EXHIBT 1-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT -ACTUAL TOTAL SALES -RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Resident Spending Gap -Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Restaurant & Drinking Carlsbad Spending Gap I Places Spending Negative spending gap indicates inflow of spending from outside the resident base (employees, visitors etc.) and outflow of resident spending to outside areas I I I I I I I I I I I I I Food & Beverage Store Spending I I I Full Service Restaurants Drinking Places (Alcoholic I Supermarkets and Other Grocery Beverages) I Stores I Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor) Cotere/ Mobile) I I ~----------------------------------- 21690.00 Retail Demond: Demand -gap NGAFO (2) The Concord Group DRAFT EXHIBIT 11-2A EMPLOYMENT TRENDS -TOTAL SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA 1999 THROUGH 2026 0 I United Stoles 11 S.DiNO>!!!i! n ~ Growth Growth f-' 000s Num. Num. Pere. Num. Num. Pere. _-..J ---------------Annual N 1999 129,226 3,090 2.4% 1,160 45.0 4.0% 0 N 2000 132,018 2,792 2.2% 1,200 39.9 3.4% N 2001 132,080 62 0.0% 1,225 24.9 2.1% 2002 130,637 (1,443) (1.1%) 1,237 12.7 1.0% 2003 130,328 (309) (0.2%) 1,249 11.4 0.9% 2004 131,757 1,429 1.1% 1,270 21.1 1.7% 2005 134,022 2,265 1.7% 1,293 23.2 1.8% 2006 136,434 2,412 1.8% 1,314 20.6 1.6% 2007 137,978 1,543 1.1% 1,322 8.7 0.7% 2008 137,225 (753) (0.5%) 1,315 (7.5) (0.6%) 2009 131,289 (5,936) (4.3%) 1,249 (66.0) (5.0%) 2010 130,337 (952) (0.7%) 1,240 (8.7) (0.7%) 2011 131,922 1,585 1.2% 1,250 9.9 0.8% 2012 134,157 2,235 1.7% 1,283 32.7 2.6% 2013 136,356 2,199 1.6% 1,316 33.4 2.6% 2014 138,922 2,567 1.9% 1,345 28.7 2.2% 2015 141,804 2,882 2.1% 1,385 39.9 3.0% 2016 144,333 2,529 1.8% 1,422 37.5 2.7% 2017 146,595 2,262 1.6% 1,452 29.6 2.1% 2018 148,893 2,298 1.6% 1,482 30.3 2.1% 2019 150,900 2,007 1.3% 1,504 21.4 1.4% 2020 142,252 {8,648) (5.7%) 1,385 (118.8) (7.9%) 2021 146,147 3,894 2.7% 1,41 0 25.1 1.8% Quarterly 1Q21 142,143 1,374 2021 145,443 3,301 2.3% 1,403 28.0 2.0% 3Q21 147,066 1,623 1.1% 1,409 7.0 0.5% Forecast 2022 151,810 5,663 3.9% 1,473 63.0 4.5% 2023 154,353 2,544 1.7% 1,500 26.5 1.8% 2024 155,656 1,303 0.8% 1,519 19.2 1.3% 2025 156,224 568 0.4% 1,532 12.9 0.9% ;::;: 2026 156,710 486 0.3% 1,540 8.1 0.5% (!) 5-YrAvg. 154,951 2,113 ---r:i% 1,513 ~ ---r:ii% 3 Historical Average # N 5-Yr 363 (0.1%) (2.5) (0.6%) 10-Yr 1,423 1.0% 16.0 1.0% " Ql O'Q (!) u, ~ 0 -f-' -..J w Note: All employment figures represent year end unless otherwise noted Source: Annual-Moody's (updated 0 1/25/2022); Quarterly · BLS 21421.00 Employment Trends: Jobs 6% -_tol Employment(% Chon~ ~ 5% 4% :, 3% 2% 1% 0% ii" :;;.1 % I e l-' t 2% -3% -4% ,, I ' -~ ~ ' : ' I ' ' I : ' '•' I ' ' I : ' --... "';; ' ,;--, -, ' 1 : ~ ' I ' , --.•, ~ I , ' , \ ' , ' ' ,_ ' I \ -µ. -------17 -~ -' II ~i ' !~ ~ --~_-fl ' n\ • \ I I /1 \ I y u I : \ I I I I \ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! : H u -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~f~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -Son Diego MSA ---• United States (line} THE CONCORD GROUP 19 DRAFT 0 EXHIBIT 1-2B EMPLOYMENT TRENDS • BY INDUSTRY SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA 2006 THROUGH 2026 n ,-+ j Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Annual Employment (OOOs) I Forecosl '21."26 Shift Share E,JitpYment Industry {000.) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 _ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % Gb rnment 218 222 225 224 230 229 228 230 232 236 242 246 248 249 237 235 241 244 248 250 252 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% R~Trade 148 148 142 132 131 133 137 141 144 147 147 149 148 146 134 139 142 143 142 141 140 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -I.I% 0.1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% MNSifocturing 104 103 103 97 96 97 98 100 102 107 108 109 112 116 114 114 115 114 112 111 109 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% .J 7.1% 6.3% -0.9% -12.4% E<kl,tion& HeohhSe,vices 138 144 154 163 165 168 175 181 186 193 199 204 209 217 210 214 224 232 235 235 235 2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.6% Construmon 93 87 76 61 55 55 57 61 64 70 76 80 84 84 82 86 91 92 92 92 91 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% P,oJ.,.;onol&Bv,,n..,Sen,i~ 218 222 221 203 203 205 211 219 223 229 235 239 249 256 248 254 259 256 255 256 258 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% -I.I% -7.0% Leisure&Hospttolity 155 160 163 153 153 154 "160 167 176 182 190 196 200 202 145 153 176 191 205 217 224 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34.1% Finonciol Adivtties 84 80 75 70 67 67 70 71 70 71 73 75 76 77 74 73 75 75 75 74 75 0.9% -3.0% • 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1% ,....._.,w~-•u,.,;,, 29 29 29 27 27 26 27 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 2.3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% O 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Wholesole Trode 46 47 46 42 42 43 45 46 45 44 44 44 44 44 41 40 40 40 40 40 39 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0.1% O 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9.1% ""-....,_J-.l'vbli<Admin.j 48 48 48 47 46 48 49 49 52 53 54 55 56 56 45 48 53 55 57 59 59 1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% lnformotion 32 31 31 28 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% O 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Noturol Resources&Mining O O 0 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hoot,l,=•ood00<ool~,ido-117 122 130 136 139 141 146 152 156 163 169 175 180 187 183 188 197 204 206 206 207 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Toto! Non-Form (000) 1,314 1,322 1,315 1,249 1,240 1,250 1,283 1,316 1,345 1,385 1,422 1,452 1,482 1,504 1,385 1,410 I 1,473 1,500 1,519 1,532 1,540 """T.9iJ -7.9%1 1.8% -0.2% l.B'K, 25.9 100% 100% Y/YChonge (OOOJ 20.6 8.7 -7.5 -66.0 -8.7 9.9 32.7 33.4 28.7 39.9 37.5 29.6 30.3 21.4 -118.8 25.1 1 63.0 26.5 19.2 12.9 8.1 %Change ! 1.6% 0.7% !-0.6% -5.0'll, -0.7%U 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0'll, 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% l.4%!t -7.9%!rJ]fil'I 4.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5%! CumulotNeGoin/loss, 1.l'li ~-------2.3% ~-9% I 4.5% 9.2% 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 t'-----11 ;ol~nfo p•~•~K>n ~----t employment ir, 2014 RehJtn lo pre-COVIO Employment Growth & Annual Employment Change Forecast I I I I I --t---I --I -1--1--.• t--'t--L :. --I •<· '< --~ I ~::·r-r,: t--.t--1--. 1--~ ~~ --, I-+-t_l------I --.. ~ t--:~~I--:,~ li1i . i ·'t--t-1---r---1--. ----r-t--I---' r---1--· 1--;•,t-- •: ':,, __ , ;< " , ~ ,__ d ~:, ,..,, }-> I.· -I ~'"' 1,1" I'.' 1.?'. 11 I ~t--r,; 11 ~/, ~ f ~· ·: ,__ -~-• , r~ -'} .--.': ~-vt'-3'. ,! '!I i,; ' I '.~, ~K"i I i , 1~ _ --~ t -~. I;-" ,:• t : I~ ~ -~ 1B" 16" , ... -12" ~·. ,--10% >-8" >-6" .,. 3 . -,;. 2" t . °" a '.~"'" () ~ 2021 Son Diego MSA Employment 7% 13% 15% § 1,000 = 900 j;:;:800 ~700 ::;-1~,~~:~_1 3=~ ~-~ I---~-: I---k _ :~ 111 ",-:-,-_ ,-~j-(2") g ■ Professional & Business Services ■ Educotion & Health Services # l'J600 500 "1:1'00 QJ O"Q 300 (l) U"l200 l/1 0 100 ....., i ·' , . 1---~ -1---1._~1---~1---~-1--I--. -- ,•.;-. __ /1----1......--... ·,.I......-.. ~'-1--'<t--··r---.··r- -~ .: r---1---~L----'·t--I o--.t---,I--1-- 1--~ 1--t--t--0--1--0---1-- ~ ~ t--t---0----- ~~ 1---~-._ ►--.:.- 1--t--. ._ ' t-- 1--._ ,._ t--··. . :t--t--'t--;-,__ .::·,__ t--;t--t--t--> t-- t---0--t--0-- ---0---- V o ' I:':,' -I ,..... ~;-~i + ~-----r--__ ·--,_,_ --~ ~ ;,, t'i f.;: I !;~ .. _ ; 1-t--~--~ 0--r I -· "' ~~ I ., ~ ,t---·~ -,r:-.·-<= 0--,_ >- -~; ~ I -•. 0--. t---.... .rr --~ .' t--' I " 0---~ ---t-·0-- I 0--..L 0--0----I I ~ 0 -..J w 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -Total Non-Form Employment ...... Total Non-Form Employment Yf( Change Note: All employment figures represent yeor end ,0 . c•"J l leisure & Hospitality Government (6") (8'1) ■ Retail T rode ■ Manufacturing J10%J ■ Financial Activities Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Jl2"J ■ Construdion 114"1 Wholesale Trode 116"1 ■ Other Services (except Public Admin,) ■ lnformo1ion (tSl.l Natural Resources & Mining Shift Share: Indicates on industry/ sectors empk>yment growth and competitiveness in the San Diego MSA. It helps determine if o specific industry showed foster or slower growth/ decline in comparison with other industries/ sectors over a certain time period. Source, Moody's (updated 01/25/2022) 21690.00 Employment Trends: lndust,y THE CONCORD GRO UP EXHIBIT l-2B DRAFT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNS SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA 2009 THROUGH 2026 Tourism Emeloxme[!t lndustriei Ov~I Emelo;iment lnd!!stries "' Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Ann. Growth % MSA Employment --------t-> '21 -'26 Shift Share '2 l -'26 Shift Share ~-..J '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 ~ _II_ 2021 2026 Nom. % '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 _% _ _JL_ 2021 2026 Nom. __ %_ ------------N Govijment 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% Retail Trade 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 22% 17% -4.9% -22.6% Reta rode 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% Leisure & Hospitality 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 24% 27% 3.0% 12.7% Manufacturing 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% .) 7.1% 6.3% -0.9% -12.4% Clothing and accessories stores 0.9% -24.3% 16.9% -3.5% 0.4% 0 2% 2% -0.5% -21.6% Educa1ion & Health Services 2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.6% Sporting goads stores -1.7% -1.8% 17.4% 1.3% -0.9% 0 1% 1% -0.3% -26.6% Construction 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% General merchandise stores -1.1% -7.9% 5.4% -1.1% -0.4% 0 4% 3% -1.0% -24.8% Profnaional & Bus.inn1 Services 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% -1.1% -7 .0% Miscellaneous store retailers 1.2% -18.8% 1.4% -2.6% 0.6% 0 1% 1% -0.2% -20.9% Leisure & Hospitality 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34 .1 % Water transportation 10.9% -36.2% -6.7% 64.3% -2.1% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -30.8% Financial Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1 % Passenger Transportation 4.4% -37.5% -15% -12.5% -2.3% 0 0% 0% -0.1% -31.6% Tror.po,1., WOf"ehouaing & UtitlfiN 2.3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Scenic and sightseeing transportation 1.5% -29.7% 28.6% -1.1% 1.9% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -15.7% Wholesale T rode 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0.1% 0 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9 .1 % Food services and drinking places 3.3% -24.2% 6.6% -3.0% 7.9% 10 17% 20% 2.1% 12.2% Ot"-r S.,.,KM (exc. Public Admtn.) 1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% Accommodation and food services 2.9% -26.5% 5.8% -3.7% 7.7% 12 21% 23% 2.4% 11.5% Information -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% 0 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Food and beverage stores 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0 5% 4% -1.1% -22.6% Natural Resources & Mining 1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Arts; entertainment; and recreation 2.2% -36.4% -0.7% -7.9% 9.5% 2 3% 4% 0.6% 20.9% Heohh core and social o»istorw=-3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Total Employment Sector: 2.296 -21.496 5.196 -3.096 mil 39.0 100% 100% Total Non-Farm 1.9% -7 .9% ~ -0.2% IJJiii 25. 9 100% 100% Son Diego MSA Major Employment Sectors Son Diego MSA Key Tourism Employment Sectors ~ 10% • • • ] -• • cf 5% • i ., • .!. • • E 0% 40% -g 30% ·t CL 20% ., E .. • • 1 •-·-•TT i-r-· I • I a ~ -LI I ~ -5% • 4'I ~ 10% 5 0 l I I -' t-i • I • • • u.. (:I g-10% 1-15% 0 -20% ·" I Q 1~w ~ ~ t ·• ~ ~ # -~, 0% ., /::-.,., i,,.... .;,.. -~ "•-"'' 'b~ <'<:i ¥"' ~~ ~ ., • i::-~ • <-"' -,o ·,c /1,<:i •<t .;;:,'' ., -y, a< 'It o" ,l' 01$ !:' ,1' ~l5 '+<' ,,<1 t-l5 'It ,it-;.-c, ;;!-.,., • ~ "' / .~,, ,,.J' i' "'" ./ /' .JI /' .,o•· v"" '/" /' N & • ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i::-'lt ~'It '-" ~d' ·,<-"" ~"'' ,l # -~ ~ ✓ ~, -0 QJ (JQ (!) 'b.:F ·,i;c 4P «-"' ~., '<) q_<o , .. /' o~ u.. f 0 .s::: ! 0 0 ·" ., O> C: 0 .s::: u ~ 0% -10% -20% -30% I I I I • • I 0 I • • • • -40% "" -50% ,..,,o'b" ~~ ·~ il 'i":,..ae"' ~q}I ~" ~ ~~ -~ /::- •O<::-~ r::,..~ "!!,.0(,e, ·C,,e,,., ~ 4-t-o ~o" ,.:~ ~,.,-s ~a-e,"' o~e,'7 ,, .. e,'-e, Oct' ty4' ,I} rl' i' 0 ·,<--~ c;; '/So<:' ;/" i::-"qo 4/' _,,t:' .J' ,,., ..,,o o<' '?~ :,. ~ ,p ~.,, ,.._, i::-"c{' ·i::-<l>q <!',:f' ;:.a"' ;,_o<' *<:i -~ J, ., ,f' . "'<I> 'b'-S' , ,o ,oc;; <",s ~"',;; o<''b oc,0 x/" 0<--'b 'b<:i o<:' -i::-~ co~ ~o .,,_0<:< ~o ,!' ,,,,<:' • 4-t} .,<--c;; ._, ¥"' q_o"" ~cs . ~~ ;,_o<' ~<--'b f' 'b ~ )-...0 _bv e'e, ·,<-o<:' o'b .,., ~.,er ,,_cP ~~<:' <+"<' '<o <-o ~e; ~ ~-..'" "' V, 0) '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 •'21-'26 '09-'19 19-'20 • 20-'21 •'21-'26 0 ...... Fr~ 2009 to 2019, in the San Diego MSA most employment sectors enjoyed stable growth with overall Total Non-Form employment increasing 1.9%. However, with the onset of COVID-19 the tourism se~r felt the highest negative impact with the medical sector showing most resilience, although still showing negative growth. The professional services sector has relatively shown the least amount of variance in growth across the time periods surveyed, with data processing jobs within the sector showing the most promise for future growth. The sector is showing a relatively low potential for future growth, but that could be due to the industries natural tendency for minimal sway from each time period. 21 A21.00 Employment Trends: Industry Br.akdown THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-2B EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNS SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA 2009 THROUGH 2026 Me&I Emeloxment Industries Professional Se[:,'.ices Emeloxment Industries :-+ Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Ann. Growth % MSA Employment ---------f--> '21-'26 Shift Shore '21 -'26 Shift Shore -" '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 ~ _#_ ~ 2026 Nom. __ %_ N Amb~ry health core services 4.5% -3.6% 4.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2 16% 17% Hospijpls -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4% Nu<'ling or,d rN.KMntiol car• fodlf-2.3% -5.0% -1.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% Social assistance 3.6% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 2 11% 12% Health c.or• and sociol assistance 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 37% 37% Offices of physicians 3.0% -4.1% 2.0% -0.5% 1.2% 0 6% 6% Offices of dentists 2.3% -12.2% 15.9% 2.0% 2.7% 0 2% 2% Offices of other heohh proctilion•• 5.0% -1.2% 11.1% 4.9% 3.2% 0 2% 2% Outpatient core centers 7.3% 3.5% -0.2% 5.0% 3.3% 1 3% 3% Medtcof and diognostic. laboratories 8.2% -6.5% 3.2% -1.7% 1.8% 0 1% 1% Home health care services 6.7% -2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0 2% 2% 0th« ambuk,tory heallh C(Jf. MfVtCH 4.7% -5.8% 10.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0 0% 0% Hospitals -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4% Nursing OM rMid.nttol core fociitie, 2.3% -5.0% -1 .5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% 100% 100% Total Medical Sector: 3.2%i -2.3% 2.6% TR etfil ~ Son Diego MSA Key Medical Employment Sectors 20% 1~ • ~ . ~ 10% I • '5 • • 0.3% -0.3% -0.5% 0.7% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'2 l % # 2021 2026 Nom. __ %_ ------------ 1 . 9% Government 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 25% 26% 0.9% 3.7% -5.7% Reol estote 1.3% -1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 2.9% -10.3% Finance and insurance 0.7% -1.3% -4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0 5% 5% -0.1% -2.0% 6.9% Secur~ies ond Commodi1y's 1.2% -0.9% -2.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0 1% 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0. 7% Professional; scientific; and technical seNi 2.5% -1.8% 3.7% 2.7% -0.1% 0 16% 15% -0.6% -3.8% -3. l % Scientific Research and Ser"Vices 2.0% 1.9% 10.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0 4% 4% -0.1% -2.3% 4.2% Professional & Business Services 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 27% 27% -0.4% -1.6% 7 .0% Management of companies and enterpris, 4.1% -1.4% 2.4% 2.0% -0.1% 0 3% 2% -0.1% -3.6% 7. 7% Finonciol Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 8% 8% 0.0% -0.6% 0.1 % Administrative and support services 1.5% -6.4% 0.7% -0.4% 1.2% I 8% 9% 0.2% 2.8% 0. 7% Educotionol services 1.2% -9.6% -4.5% -2.6% 1.6% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 5.0% -1 .2% Monetary outhorities--centrol bank 4.9% 0.6% -1.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -1.0% -5.7% Credit intermediation and related odivitie -0 .2% -1.1% -8.2% -2.5% -1 .2% 0 2% 2% -0.2% -9.0% • l 0.3% Doto processing; hosting and rekJted serv 11.1 % 2.6% 20.2% 11.7% 4.0% 0 0% 0% 0.1% 17.9% Rental and leasing services 1.3% -23.9% 3.7% -3.3% -0.2% 0 1% 0% 0.0% -3.9% Total Professional Services Sector: 1.7% -3.5% 1.0% 0.7% uuii ~j 100% 100% ----- Son Diego MSA Key Professional Services Sed or 25% 20% i 15% ~ 10% ~ ~ 5 5% ~ J 0% • i ti i . ~ • I • ~ l • -• ~ " • • • • I ~ ~ ·----•--•--•--•--•---'--~-•-----~-- ] l . J ,. 1 • • -1 l 1 I f "' • .., i r • ; '"' I I • • • ,., T ~ 0% t ~-r-' l l I -I i I ~-r 1 I -5% e () -~ -10% • .., I .. ~ I • -·1 -I • iP -5% e 1,1 E -• u * -10% I ~ u QJ ~ -15% ', ~, . ', e 0 ', ~c, t, f..c, . e, r, f.o ~, f.o ~ ~,~~~ft-~#,?~ p ✓ -....J 4' X'oc.; \<:P ~;,;. ;/i ~~ ~ 0° (}:'·o v0 i~ ,0 c,'li X'o"q ,oc; 0 , , ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ , ~ , , , -+1 c ~c i).o _Do o .<.,V0 K'"( ~ ·v <.: c ~c ~ §:-'<:-~o c.,0 ,o-,<,....(.,,e" o~"" ;f' ~0<:-o~" #' §:-'<::-~o --...i ~., . o0"' "'0 o"'· ~,. ~<i0 ff ~,. ~., . o""' (.J,~,p(\ ._e."" ~0 O ~(Q o" °i>'0 ~0 0~ <...0'"" -..o O e,O ~a <c'O ~O -._S' 0 "::Ov 0c::-~ o ~ o '!Ov 0c::- 'r-~ ."'</J _.,_.,2s-·"""' 'i:,~o o~ ·<c'q, "(,,9 " 0x;-· ~\..0 ~fG "\~ ~ '" o~ ~ '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 •'21-'26 21421.00 Employment lrends: Industry Breakdown 0 g> -15% i u * -20% -25% • -30% ~ ,,:-"' ru"' 00~ (.,,e, ,c, .;:,\o<:-b~ . (.,,rQ e."' •<,'<; ,,,o .,<"' ~~ .e,0' .,, o"'0' e,0~ • e,6,. o<:f <§'<"' ,,f,. o-"' .,;:,, -~,i' 0' f) &..J.-.. J.'c; 1-ve o<!' 0' ~ '~ ,'" .,<" ,~ .~I/!' ·<-"' .,, · O' /:->-<; <fS' ?>' <"' ·,c o"'6 R</0 · o"'0 ,J>~ o O o .,., ,.,<" ""' 1:-0 xl' o" .J>' ~., ·!>o"' ~o ,.,,, /5' ~"' o'" '<' .i'" o"'o .,,.,o 't; ,,,., . ~ o"' ,_.,,c; .'.,_,c, """ <>' ,,,.., '?-if:,' ~~" . o<:-Q<:i ,<>"' .,,,"' ~.,,<l' e,O~ <f• <-:F q<o ~3-~o"' 0"' ~.,, ,,f q_<o "'o<t, . ~o ,.,_,# '<'" o .,., e,O'' · .,,-,_o-"' ,._t• · .s-</J ., o"' <e,O.:, o'~' o ,"' o ,e; ,.,o" ;..<!' §' o"' o"' "'o ll-'o o •o"' ~ ,_o .;_.. o" .,r, fl' ~0 0 ~ /} .,o' .~o ,.,_., ~ ~o l' . ~· -~e ~~<:-'jj-' (,,0 e,<"' q'o Qo-o '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 • '21-'26 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT n.. .............. ....,,,.. ... ...... ..., ..................... .... 1-,,,..,s--,,...· ........ EXHIBfTl.2C EMPLOYMENT O INOUSTl'Y GIOWTH NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2010AN02019 Q.. Jiil"i.iii,J,,f ---ti ...... 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" ta ,,. ., "" 0.0 ~__i ---A_____!. ---11:!i.. 1.0 d§ '-:!: h.. z~!: (J:iiJ 1.0 2.K l,JJl ,,,_ 2;?◄1 ♦n 16 11.,.. 1,1102 71-1~1 A 0.0 -100.0.. ♦,:Nol \St. 11 ... 5' I,,_ 12 &,OI, ◄,S.U 711, S.!119 1"11, 0..., -2 II, 7,iu 111ii, t.S,-6 ll1i 0.0 -21"-ell 1'• l'7♦ I'll, 1,0 ._,.. IMI a l,.>29 2'11, 0.7 2-1'1 1,1.U A l.9Q 31, O.' 1.,.. 1,103 n. IAII 1"" ... u, s.t,, -·~, ,,. 0..0 O.Olo .,. '" 2.lt7 .,,_ 0.1 17'1 ,,»4 7,i, •.cot n. 11 '"' ,.,.,. ~ "J.427 ,,. o, .._,., ,.,n .,, !,NO "' 0..2 -n~ ~ ,,. •-611 "" 10 317'1 ,,au 1n ♦,◄06 ,,,. 0.1 lft ,,,.. ft 1.24) )'l CLO ..:.!.2!2.2!.._.J.!!2.~~____n_ 0.t cm ~!;~ IN :;::!! Cffi) 1.0 ~ 56,,,. 95'11, 1◄.301 ~ ... 3.23 3.06 0.3 ·•O'I ,,131 2to 8)5' "' o.o .1oomi; 6S °' ,:, °' 08 U to 1,11&) 1-.. 1,rn o,, ,. ... ... 20,082 ,._ ».~ 1'11 0.8 .o.~ 0.7 .,,,. .. ,. ... 1.0 2.3'1 4,247 11-.. M,M,1-17'1' 11 2ft 1.0 1.n 11,n 3 ~ 19,,2,50 ..., o., o.♦'I. M I... 39,i:1◄ llfo 44,ln I°" 0,9 1311, 12 ..,.,. ◄.10 111• ,~ 1-.. ,, o., ., K .,,,_ 7W, 1,418 1" 0.7 0.7 4 ft. 11.,◄n 1" Utwa 1'C o., 0.7 .,,,. 1,a,o, ?to ,,i..o 2to 10 UUI.D$(i/ft-.»9t"r,,U 10 lO.,_ I.SI> '" U., 1' U , ... ., ... ,.,. "' , .. .... 0.7 .,... "-50' 7to 27/PI 6' o.• 11• 0.♦ I.ft ll,tQ 9" ◄1,"J1$ ft 11 19'" 13 '-0'1. • .,,., \OJ' ~.0,6 ,~ 12 ,. .. 1 .. U•ll,fft, n. 1:J,◄Oo 3'D..♦~ 10 11' ,o~ n-.. S\,6116 11'111. 1.1 27'1 0.7 -1.,.. 17,-J 5"' ,~..... ft 0.7 .1.311 o.•--.!.!!.----1.!l!.~~_____!1 0.1..:.!1!. 2.7'1 376,:1.0 OS,101 2.1 .. I.I 3.N 17,362 IS'll '1,1'6 ~ 10 Jn, 1.0 2.111. JC,..O 91,i. ,12...-, .,,. From 2010 lo 2019 , within the city of Calrshad ther• or• fovJ" distind neighborhoods identified fCK their empk,ym.,-it growth pot-,fiol. Th• lop pa-former oaosr. most employm.,-il cot.gories has bMr'I the indUffliol core (grMn) and lhould continu. lob. ffM focus of continued Bf"owlh. Of the sel.:t.d key incklltri•, th• onty s«tor that sow n119~ ..,-.p1oym.,..t growth in !he industrKll COf• wot information, 2.31 which moy be HWI os o M>m~ dytng indwry. 1.11 1.03 Retail Trade i: 3.Sf\ 3.,,. 3.3% -7.0% Retail T rode s-a 'OOl"'-,,._ •. usc..-..,._,_..,t-s..-. 21.0,,..(1(1-1/otiO,-- (I I _,J_J_d 2.05 I.BO 1.60 1.24 ,_,.. 1.02 0.63 Information Professional, Scie-ntific, and Techniccl Services Health Core and Social Assistance Arts, Ent&rfoinmenl, and Reaeotion ■Village El Olde Carlsbad □ South Beach □ Industrial Corridor ■ Carlsbad ■ North County ·Annual Job G,-owth • 2010-2019 16.9" l-4.0% 11.2% 11.5% 11.6, 8.6% S.1% •-"" , .... T LJ l!I ~ ~□ .J.1% ■ -3.6% 0.0% -71% Information Professioool, Scientific, and Technical S.rvice.s Health Core ood Social Assistance ■ Village II Olde Carlsbad □ South Beach □ Industrial Corridor ■ Carlsbad ■ North County ~-J Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation ----- n-t: CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Theki.w......_~ .. 1:,&u. ._.i~1oh~,ltal: e.c,.,~Se,,,,ion,Mng"..botal EXHIBIT l-2C EMPLOYMENT• INDUSTltY GROWTH NORlH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2010AND2019 ,...~... . °' t+!f1!!: CoyntY 2010 2019 SHft 1010 2019 SNfl 2010 2019 Snft 2010 2019 Shift 7010 2019 ~ ?910 2019 Shift .l!!!!...O ....Jl ................... ........ ,..,,.,., .Jbe. ,._, Sher. ~....!"i!I!!...,.._ ~,..,,.,., ~-st-.-5l!f!:._Nuoft ...l!:!!u.,......, Sh.t.Sha .. ....fi!l!!..... ....... ..l!!!n. Nun,. 51,o,.s.-.~,,..,.., ...lbe... ,..,..,. ~Shor. G,f'(, ,..,,_,~NI,..,, ~S>.r...!J!i:!!.. ,,,,.....,, Oucwfll'IGI. cwwf Oil ond Ga blradion '-"~ ~"" ~tokltada .... r,.J. ~~-ond~ ~;~~=CW>dL--. ~.So.,,t,k,.andl~S--- ~ofConpa,-ond(...,p--.. ......,_,s...-. ____ _.._ ,..._.,,...,_ HaoM!Cor.ondSooaf~ Ml, E.........,,,._, ond it.er"°"'°" ~-.:lfoodS-..C.. Ohl'S..-..Cnf,nduding~..........,.caor.) PubM;hf,,,,,-,,.,...,..,,. ... , m '·"' 2,167 , .... 5,079 "" ,., 713 ,.. 3,◄14 ,,. 7,310 -4,973 , .... 976 •.125 1,814 "' 909 .. 0 ·~ m .. 'l,510 .. •.780 "' 1,659 ,,. ,.,., "' 1,0S1 .. 381 "' "' "' m ... 1,140 ,. "' .. 3,171 '"' '·'°' "'" 71>S2 ,. 1,00 ,,. 6,213 ,. , ... 1 "' 0.7 ·I.°" 1.,~ .. 0.0 -too.or. 17 .. OJ ··"' ,,. ,. , .. .... 1,912 , .. , .. '·"' 7.,.. .. .. , ,. .. , .... ,,. OJ 0.6" 3,410 "' 13 ... "' ,. ... -0.<11'111 ,.. ,. 0.7 • 7.3,1, "' ,. ·~ , .. ... "' .. .1,,.. l.425 ,. ,., 1.11, ,., ,. ,., u• 1.,n ,,. , .. ,_,.. U07 ,,. I.I ,..,. 3.327 "' o., .... ,,. '"' ..... 1,3A2 .. OJ ...,. 1,741 ,. 1,199 ,. I.I ,.,. ... .. .. ' .. o, ..... I .. .. ., .. o, .. ~ "' .. "' , .... ,,. IA 1.6'l5 ,_.., .. ,,. 8,197 , .. 0.9 .... ..... ,, . "~ l.586 ... OA ..... 1,561 ,. , .. ,jl,201 , .. 1.0 ,.,,. 3,16' , .. , . m "' 3.0 "~ 677 "' "' ,.,, .. 03 -ll.61' .,., "' , . "" ,. ,_, 3.Jli, ... .. "' ... ,.,. . .. 0.11. "' ,. .. 1,954 .... ·~ ,... , .... ,. ,. 219 ,. . . .... "' .. .. 'l,031 ,. ... ..,. '·"" ... ... 2.808 "' , .. . .... , .... ,,. "' 3,997 .. 1.0 '..1,l'lli 1.7 .. "' ,. 338 ,. .. , . .,,. 250 '" "' , ... , "' I.I , ... 1.913 .. "' 1,143 "' OA ..... ,.,., ~ 717 "' ,.. '·"' ,., "' "' ,. 0.7 .'1.61' "' ,. '" .. 0 .. 0.0 -100.CW. 0 .. I .. ·~ .... " .. 0 .. Ill .. .. , ..... " .. " .. ,., ...... ,., ,. ,., .. 3,752 "' ,, . .... '" "' 738 "' ,., ..... ,_.., ,. 2,857 .. ,.n, , .. 0.7 -I.SY. 197 ,. ,,,. ·~ ,., , ... 9,361 '"' 11,,59 ,,. 1.i'81 .. 0.9 ,.,. '" "' ... ,. 1.1 '·"' '·"' "' , .... ,. 3.02 .. .., . .... 2.918 , .. ,..,, '"' 1.0 . ..,. ,.m '"' ..,,. ,,. 733 "' •-• .... 73 .. '" "' ,., ,..,,. '" ,. "' ,. "' ,. 0.7 .,.,. 190 1• ,,. ,. M ., .... 1,681 "' 1_,329 ,. "" ,. 0.9 '2.11' "' ,. ,.,, "' •-• ,,. '2,1.U "' , ..... "' m "' ,., M. "' ,. "' "' ,., , .. 1,103 ,. l,'81 "' ·~" ... 0.9 , ... 1,,,s ... 1.780 "' 0.9 . .,,, 5,919 , .. 9,.317 1:r. '°' .. ., ... ,. .. "' ,. ,. ""' ... .. ,,,.., ,. 3,292 .. 1.0 :us ,.,11 "' ... .. .., ..... '·"' ,. •.ooe ,. '·"' "~ 1.0 ,_,. '·"' .. 1,031 .. ,., , .... 3.7~ "' ,_.,, "' '·"' ,,. ,., 1-"' ..... "" ◄.901 "" •• 0.1" 3,,11 •• '·"" .. .. , "' ,., "-"' ..... ~ '91 "' 1.0 "'" 2,002 ,. -4.671 ,,. ,,,,s '"' 13 ,.,,. 3,o:i, '"' , .... , ... I.I 2.1'4 7,115 ,,. , ..... '"' ,.,78 .. .. , .... . ..... , 7'4 1,571 ,. 1.0 , .... , .... "' 1,2,5 "' ,...-------______m_ .....a.~ ..-1!. 0.8 ~_____m_ ---1!. ~ __ ,_. 37,656 46,976 ,,. ,,_ ... '2.217 0.9 ~----1...!l!..~~_.l!,. 0.3 ---:!..!.!..~ ----1!. ____m_ _.l!,. O.B ~~ ~ ,----1...m ---1!. '"" 32,15\ ~:~~ 10 ml 20,616 22.397 .... ""'-"•,leci&tot.,"""~-Mr-. Ex:ludi.,g~-- ,_.., ,,_.., ,,. .... '·"' c:::riJ 0 6 ~ .r,,1n 87'4 ·~ ,.,. l,7,1 "' 3,Al7 c:::ri) "·"' .,,. ,._.., ""' 11 ~ 1.0 , .. 61,73' 71,135 2.,1, "' , .... ,,. , .... Dl'il 10 ~ 10,125 , .. 15,14'1~ 16,7◄1 .,. 3•.on ... 1.0 ,_,. 19,061 "" ,._,.. 12.so 12.00 1.50 1.00 lo.so 10.00 From 2010 to 2019, the city of Carlsbad wos a consistent top performer in growth of key employment cotegorie5. Most Notably in Arts, entertainment and recreation sedor and the Professional, scientific and technK:ol services sedor. The lotter may be key for continued focus ond growth as this category usually equates to higher wage jobs. 1.04 1unn 11 16nn 11 Retail T rode Information ,,. ·~ '·"' 58,,78 ,,. ,,.J08 Shift Share -2010-2019 0.-11 I Professional, Scientific, and Technical Health Core and Social Assistance Services ■ Oceanside [J Vista D San Marcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad ■ North County "Annoi,ol.Jol, Growth~2010.201, 10.0. 7.5% 6.0'JI 2.3" 1.9% 0.6 .. 0.9% o .... --0.4% ~u •~ -2.6" -3.8" I -7.2" -11.6" Retail Trade lnforma1ion Professional, Scientific, and Technical Health Care and Social Assistance Services ■ Oceanside O Vista D San Marcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad ■ North County Sou-a-: 'On Tlw Mof>"· usc--..s..-, c.n,., b Ee-St,,odi,. 21604.00Mocro2:JobG,- .,. 03 ..... 9,131 "' 8.752 "' 0.8 -0~ 0.0 -100.0'II, " .. " .. 0.7 ·'2.1'.4 OA 0.2" , .... ,~ 1,1n .. 0.8 .o.rr. ,., 6.6'l5 10.08' ,. "·'°' "' ... ... 1.0 ,.,. 0 .1,1 , .. $5,&46 '"' I.I , ... ·~ ,.,. 17,773 ,. 19,150 .. o., ..... •-• , ... 39,52, "" <1'4,ln , .. .. , ,.,., 1.1 '·"' •.1'3 .. '·"' , . 13 ·~ •-• "U'\ ..... ,. 1.669 ,. 0.1 -1.0• 0.7 ...... 12.,n ,. 13,CMI ,. •• ..... 0.7 -'11',11, 1,lm ,. . .,., ,. 1.0 ,..,. I.>, S.lil. ».~2 .. ...... .,, 09 ..... ,~ 10.9'11, 3,513 .. 6,1'9 .. ,., , .... .. , .1.,,. '1•,5CM "' 11,098 .. o., !,It. o., , ... 37,861 "' ,2,375 .. 1.1 , ... 13 ·~ ,..,,, , .. 5',076 ,,. 10 '·"' IA '·"' 1~595 "" l3,'406 ,. .. , ··"' ·~ '2.l't. 40,651 ,,. 51,686 ... 1.1 ,_,. 0.7 .1.s,r. 17,883 ,. 15,8-4◄ ,. 0.7 -1.311. 0.9 ----14----1..!!l. ----22§.. ~ ___lll 0.1 ..dl!. ,,.. 376,342 •55,201 ,,. " '"' 57,):'2 '"' 67,196 Ciii) 10 "" 1.0 ',. 3'3,480 · ,,. 412,8'6 ... 1.0 ,,. 2.06 ....L, 1.S, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 11.2" 9.9% 0.8" 0.7" Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation THC CQI\.CORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIIITJ-2C •;;.';;;::::=•.::,• NORTH COUN!Y, ....,. DIEGO. CA I I EMPLOYMENT • tNDUSTIY COMPOSITION _..____ 2019 ·a.i..cn±H = Swtne-:t. lndt...lrialCorridor ::=:J.;;::::;:~~::1;~::;:-:;---"~~~~~~~~~~~~•• Ncw!!JCoynty Jobi Labor .lob& 1,..,,. Jobi labor Job. Labor Jobi labor Jobt labor Jobi Lobo, Q "of 1'of 1'of 1'of "of 1'of 1'of ,r.o1 1'of ,.of 1'of '°' C"'> Jobi Jobi Co,1$obs Carl.Jobi C.«tJobt Jobi Jobi ~ Shor Cork Shor Cothb to Shor Ca,1 Cori fro Cotk Shor •bo to eo.ft.b Shor •ba ~ Carhb Shor 1ba to Shor Horlh to ,o 0 lobl Mum • bad Nvm • ad Lobo Mum • •bod Hum Shc>r. ,boa Labor Mum. Short, bod Mum. d Labo,-Mum Shear. od Num • d labor Num Shot. acf Mum • d t.a,,or l'oklfn Stw. Cot.,n!r ~ • ~..le:..~~~ Shore~ .. ~~==='= ~ = ~ ~ ~ : 0.0 g : °" 3~ ;,: l9' b; g : 0'4 I~ : I~ 0~ 1g = ~ 1~ ;,: ~ 6.9 3i ~ : 2g ~ : '!. 17~ : ~l ~~ ~ ;: b! 8,7~ : 'f~ : ~~ fa o °" air. 1 °" .. 'Iii o.o o °" °" 1a °" s1' o.o 1,5 5" ~ s °" 11' ,.,.o 1, °" o" 1 11' ,,. J., o °" °" 13 o,. 1" o.o 389 ow. ~ ,oo °" n 1.9 1,,n w 2..w, °" 0.1 14.7 3'li 51' 11.t 6'\11, 5" L3 785 6" 10,. ?14 51' 7Y. 1.3 789 6"' 10'4 69 4'11i 11' ,.1 34'1 \,t, 1"' 52 51' 11' 6.1 200 8" IW. lOS 4'(, 0'11, 1.9 2,857 _.,. 9"' 1,169 51' 7' 1.3 31,'106 7" 31.336 6" 1.1 10 1" °" a, as •" 0.1 o °" °" 110 "" ,,. o.o ,s "' 1" 112 6% ,,. 0.1 ,,1::11 "'" 361' 112 '°" "' 36.a o °" °" 139 a" °" o.o n.•S9 1s" ,,~ ,.1s, 9" " 1.a ss,a'6 1n .a.no 9" 1.1 ,-36 1'/f, 11' aJ ,111, 3" 0.A 13 0'4 0'A 207 5" 4" 0.1 316 6Wi 6Wi 107 6'. 7" 3.1 3,180 l2" 5,.. 46 "' '" 69,1 32 1'-" OWi 188 6tio l'A 0.2 S.589 ~ ff1' ?,459 S'A 11" 1.3 19,2SO "' 11,141 "' 0.9 ~ Trade 314 ,,_ 4" 162 9" 4" 2.0 865 '"" '°" 375 9" .. ,. 2.3 A?A e" 5,i, 178 1o,i, 1" 2.4 3,0'28 12" 35" 95 9'11, 1" 31.9 177 1'Ji OWi 276 ..... '" 0.0 8.576 111' IK 4,05,9 81' "-?.I AA,ln IO'Mi 45..8'8 9" 1.0 r __ -,w......_ s1 11' 6" " 2" 41' 1.2 o OM ow. 91 1" 1ori o.o 175 a 13" so n. s" 2.s 328 n, 35,i, 20 2" 2" 16A 1 °" ow. ss 2111. '" o.o 9'29 "' 1ft 1,009 2" n. o.9 6,439 l'Wi 11.010 2" 0.6 ~ 3 °" °" 48 n. ,." 0.1 47 '" 4" 105 3" n OA 11s ». 13" 48 3"' 4,i, 3.o o, 1" ~ n 1" 2,i, 11.0 62 " n, n n. '" 0.a 1,319 1" 1:n. 1,319 3" 11• 1.0 7.669 n. 12.366 2• 0.6 ,..__o•w;U,...,.""°' 120 ~ 6" 61 4'11, 4" 1.1 37 '" 21' 1.u 3" ,.. 0.3 107 2"' s• "10 411i, 4,i, 1.5 174 3" )9,i, 34 3" '21lo '7..8 66 :;,;,, 1• 109 A"-1,i, o.o 1,983 3-. t5" 1.74 "' lot. 1.1 13,04 3" 17,490 3" 0.1 ...,.~ ••• u •• _. .. ,H-. 19s .n;, 1:,w, 4d ?"-,.,. 4.1 s3 i,1, 4" 91 7" 6" o.o n, s~ 16" s2 ». 3" 4.6 uJ n JOWi 12 21' ,,. 10.1 37 11, °" 14 ,, 1"' cu 1,4u n 10,i, 1.094 ni '°' ,_. 9;uo ,-,. 10,490 "' 09 ~-.----142 5" 3" 18Y 10"4 3" 1.3 162 3" ?'I, 463 11,i, 5" 0.3 713 14' e,i, '23A I~ 2" J.O 3,911 JS,. 41" 133 12" 1,i, 29.1 169 .,,. 0'A 403 14,i, 1,i, 0.4 0,387 I,,. I 2A"III 6.013 13'. 11,i, U 38,559 8' 56,295 I 11, 0.1 ---~-~ 0 Oli, Olli AO 2111, 4,i, 0.0 0 0'A 0Wi 96 11' .. ,. 0,0 14' 3-.. 6" l9 7'1, 2" 3.7 1.1n "' SI" 33 3" ,,. 35..S 1 01' 0. 62 2" 1,i, 00 2,287 ~ lrA. 994 2" 10'1. 7.3 6,249 1, 9,816 21' 0.o ------100 3" ,.,. 106 o,i, 4" LS 105 2• 3" 1:16 s• s" o..s 460 9" n ,i, 9'2 5"' 21t. s.o 1,,13 s" 35,i, n "" 1,i, 19.4 u '" °" 134 51' °"' 0.1 4,008 5" 1594 2,sn 5Wi n 1.6 21,099 o'lrri, 31.345 6'-" o.9 ~ S.-..... 201 ft. 5'-" 175 9'Wi "' l.1 678 l•'-" 1a, AM 17" 1311, 1.4 20S '" s" 161 9" '" 1.3 A65 2" 12% 103 ..... 3" 4.5 173 7" OWi 286 1o,i, 1,i, 0.0 3,827 51' W 4,914 101' '°" 0.8 4'1,37.5 K 49.948 '°" 0.8 ~c-.-.... u • ..i..-...-978 tK 16" 210 11'-" 4Wi 4.4 223 5" 4'1, An 11" 8" o.s 3eo 7" 6'-" 215 12" 4,i, 1.a 1,090 4" 1911, 119 111i. ,,. 9., 200 81' °" :us n• "' o.6 S.880 81$ 111' sµs 1211, n; 1.0 S4.07o 13 64,909 13'A o.a ...... t_.__.,.........., 1:,0 ,-3" s1 3" 4" 2.3 48 n, 1,r. 123 3" 3" o.4 51 1,1, '" " 3" '" u 3.530 "" 76" 41 ..,, '" ao.2 '° 2" °" 99 3" '" 0.4 4,611 6" 3,-1,411 3" 11" J.J 13.406 3" 12,696 2" 1.1 =..-:.~ 1:: 3~ ~: 2!! 1;: :: !~ ~~; I~ : ~ I!: ;: ~1 1~~ 2: 1~ l~~ 1: ~ !; 1-;:~ ~: :~: I~ 1~ :: 1!:; 1.1:: ·: ~ ~ 1: :: ~~ :~ 1: !~ ~;~ I: :: :1 ~~~ I~ ~;;! 1: ~~ I\&~ _1& 51' 16,i, 63 3" A1' 4.1 ___1.2!L :2,.. 78" 149 4,i, 9'A. 8.6 0 0Wi 0. 3A ?44~ 0.0 ___Q_ Olli O'I' 27 2Wi 2" 0.0 ~ 0Wi 01' ff 3'JI. 11' 0.0 ~ :2"~~ 3" 111f. 1.1 ~ 11'~ 311,~ Toto! 4,957 .W I.an 41i, 2.6 4.709 Mr. 4,182 51i, 11 5,117 ~ t,7.54 2" 29 26,095 33" 1.116 11' 234 :2.420 l'A 2,971 ,.,. 0.8 78,135 ,~ '1,127 9" 16 <155,201 517,407 09 _..,_..,..___ .557~ -A.ti. 342 1ft ~ 1.6 252Lii} 2" 785 19" $~ 03 1,201~ 8' 395 22""• 3" 30 6,260~ 411\. 222 20,., l'A 212 268CIJj} O'llo 6411 21% 1-. 04 15.14•~ 231' 9,909 21..,_ 1l1i, 15 67,lt6[Jl!) 9-4,091 Jn, 07 Job&• Industry Share '°"" 1 18.4% ,.,,,. 16.0'1' """ 13.9% 14.8% I I n~ID R.loilTtOCNI 3.4% 1 °"' n 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% ~ □ n • C7 ............ 4.9% ~□ 12.0% l o Prohooionciil,Scientific.ONtT~~ ■Vwlog. D06d.Cariabad OSoult.~ Ohdl.taidComib ■CM.bod 11NcxthCovr,ty .,,,. I '"" lobor • lndudry Sha,. 12.6% 11.1% 10.1% '·"" ··"" i □nn i 2.4% .......... ........._, ~. Sonik,and T~ Sar,ic,. •v.ac.v-■adoC...t.liod o~s.od, Olndv,MriafComdo, ■Carioood IINo.thC:,u,,iy 11.9% □nn l ~ HitalhCaroandSoeiol~ 12.6% Hoo.ihCaro cn:ISoocil.......,_ 13.6% 6.0% 2.6% ■1.0'll 1.0% (.=J r, I □ ....... ~.ondlwocr--. i □nn 1 □ Mo.~,ond~ TH. CO,,..CO..OGlCU' DRAFT EXHIBITl-2C I EMPLOYMENT• INDUSTRY COMPOSHION ~~~ .. ~ NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, C\ -.---.~-=====Diiiiiiili:====::::::i [::::=====~-=:,..,=----...! 2019 y...; f SonMan;o. Entin.t ---=~-=--,----=~--,,-.-No,rthywnty Jobt "of Labor "of --~Jo"b,=-~,.,..0,1 ___ ~Lo~bo~• -,,,.-.of Jobs "of labor "of Job& "of tabor "of Job. 1' of labor "of Job. labor Q. Mum. Shor,, ~ Num. 7' ~ X:: Num. ~t ~n Num. ~ 7' JOtoot Num. ~• ~n ~ 7' ~.: ~=-Num, -:.r:r ~n Num. Shoiw ~n ,otoot Num. ~r ~ Mum. 7' c:;;;, ~~ ~ ~':' ~ ~':' ~ot ~,._,_,.....,._,_,_ 909 2"' 10,., 1,U2 1% 161' 0.8 2,199 5% 25% 1,063 '1% 1'2,_ 2 1 717 11' 8'-6-42 1"' 7\. 1.1 271 1"-3,i, 186 I" n. 1.5 116 0,. 11' 381 1% 5% 0.5 8,752 ~ 7337 1" 1.2 ~ __ _.Ol_o.__ 0 0% 0,-25 0% 15% 0.0 9 OWi 17'i 18 0% 34" 0.5 0 0,,-, 0% 8 0,. 15% 0.0 I o,. '2'-6 0% 11" 0.2 0 0,. 0% 10 °" 6'-0.0 53 ~ 168 0% 0.J ,_ 229 OS 13'. 326 0% I .. " 0.7 82 0"' 5" 259 O'Ji 15" 0.3 II I 0,. 6% 182 o,. Jo,. 0.6 19 OS 2'-90 01' 5% 0.3 389 °" 12'1, '200 0% 8'-1.9 1.7n °' 2,402 °" 0.7 ...., tructlon 2.510 S'-8% <1.6S6 6% 151' 0.5 5,648 13'11. 17" 4,135 8% 13,_ 1.3 3,152 9" 11't 2,905 1'., 9" 1.3 738 3% 1"' 1,029 S% 3% 0.7 2,857 4'J. 9" 2,169 S" ,,._ 1.3 32,906 7"° 31,338 6" I.I MD~ -4,780 Im. 9'-7.298 9" 15" 0.7 8,197 19" 15" 5,933 11" 11,_ I._. 4,22_. 10,. 81/r, ... 692 11,-, 8% 0.9 326 1,-I'-1.769 n 3" 0.2 11,459 15'4 21% _.,159 9" 9" 2.8 55.846 12% -48.770 9" 1.1 ""4l-,1trrod. 1,659 4'6 9"" 3.599 5% 16"-0.5 3,586 8" 19" 2,650 S" U\i. L_. 1,781 -4S 9"' 1.966 S'-10,. 0.9 666 3,0 3,i, 1,100 S" 6% 0.6 5.589 7't 29" 2.459 5% 11% 2.3 19.250 _.,. 22.147 4% 0.9 C!i,\:,nro&i 5.365 1n, 12% 1,901 '°" 11" 0.1 ,.201 1o,r. '°" s,3so JO" 12% o.a 3,432 8" e,-3,'123 "" 9" o.9 3,022 1n. ,,. 2.0,1 9" .s" 1.s e,576 11,-19-K ,.059 e" 9"" 2.1 44.1n 1°" ,s.s,s "' 1.0 ~ONlWor~ 1,057 2'-16% 2,027 3" 18" 0.5 9'23 2~ ''" 1,166 '2% 2°'-0.7 733 2"' II'-863 1~ 13,._ 0.8 518 2,. e,r. 445 2% ,,_ 1.1 92'1 l" 14% 1,009 '2% 9"' 0.9 6,439 I~ 11,070 ?% 0.6 ('f,Q)rmotion 381 l" 51Jio 1,565 2% 13% 0.2 192 °" 3% 987 '2% 13,_ 0.2 251 1,_ 3% 873 2% 11,-, O.J 134 It. 2'-, 659 3"' 9"' 0.2 1,329 2" 17' 1,319 3% 11% 1.0 7,669 2" 12,366 2'K 0.6 Finonceondlnsvronce 57'9 1,-. 4% 2,131 l"'i. 11% 0.3 558 1•~ ,-. 1.389 3% 111ri, 04 S..O 1,-., '"-1.217 3"' ~ 04 522 2"" 4,-., 851 4% 71iil 0.6 1,983 :r. 15% 1,7-48 _., lo-i. 11 13,0'8 ~ 17,490 31li 0.7 t.blm._.'--len,H~ 723 i-,_.. Mo 1,506 2% l◄" 05 696 2' N 985 2% 11" 0.7 '178 2,i. 8% 789 2,. 8% LO A79 ?,i. 5'9 5-48 n. 6% 0.9 1,-487 2" 16'Jt 1.094 ~ 10,.. I.A 9,3,0 2" 10,490 21, 0.9 ~~-~-1,7.tO '"' S'!i 6,208 8~ 11" 0.3 1,954 5% 5" 4,076 ~ lit. 0.5 1,623 4':. 4,_ 3,924 9' JD,i O 4 1,780 ~. s,. 2,9?8 131i 8111 0.6 9,387 12'. 2.t'i 6,073 13" II~• 1.5 38,559 8'i, 56,295 11" 0.7 ___ _.'-_.__ 593 1,_ 9"' 1,361 ~ 14" 0.4 219 1, ,._ 818 2" 13'. 0.3 202 0-.. ~. n6 ,,_ 12" 0.3 ll8 1, 2-,. A26 1"' ~ 0.3 2,287 3•• 31' 99◄ 11'. IO'lrr. 2.3 6.2'9 l"-9,816 N 0.6 --•-----3,171 7't 12'1, 5,1A7 7" 16% 0.6 2,031 s, N l,576 N 13,-. 0.6 3.292 8% 12" 2,71'3 7" 10,. 1.2 809 A% 3" 1,234 5% 5% 0.7 4,008 5% 15" 2.577 5% 8'-1.6 27,098 6" 31,.345 6'-0.9 Educolionc:il s.r.a. 6,204 I~ 15,i. 6,968 ~ 14% 0.9 2,808 7" N ◄.2-48 8" lc>,i, 0.7 6,632 16'-16~ A,130 10,. 10% 1.6 21)31 9'-511. 2,551 11" 611. 0.8 3.827 5% 9" 4,914 I~ JO,,. 0.8 A2,375 9" ◄9,948 1°" 0.8 l'ldhC-onds.-.t..,.__ 7,052 15" 13'. 9,965 I~ 15" 0.7 3.997 9" N 6,34◄ 12" 12,i. 0.6 5,287 13" 10,., 5,155 12% 10% 1.0 A.901 22'-9,_ 2,682 1~ 5,-, 1.8 S,880 a,. 11% S,635 11" 9'" LO 54,076 12" 64,969 13" 0.8 ....,._~,.-.~ 1,047 2" 8". 2,171 3" 17% 0.5 338 I"" 3% 1.3'25 2" 10% 0.3 651 2% 5"' 1,013 2% 8" 0.6 497 2,. 4'1, SIi 1" ,,_ 1.0 A,671 61Jio 35"-1,427 3" II% 3.3 13,◄06 3% 12,696 1% I.I ~.,..jf..-1~ 6,213 13" 12'. 9.375 12% 18"-0.7 3,0-41 N 6% 5.662 11% 11'-0.5 4,745 12'. 9% A,380 10,. 8% 1.1 3.658 16% 7% 2,21-4 10% ft 1.7 9.-406 12'1, 18% ◄,921 10'5 9"' 1.9 51.686 11"-' 53.075 10% 1.0 c--..~......_-...... 1.8'7 4" 12';. 2,783 .,, INi 0.7 1.1'3 3" 7% 1,715 3" 11"-0.7 1,478 4% 9% 1,391 3'-9" I.I 1,571 7% 10% 810 '" 5% 1.9 2.245 3'-14% 1,5-40 3"" 9" I.!, 15.844 3% 16.!121 3" 0.9 Pvblic:A.dmioistrofion ____m_ i,r. 14"' 1993 3" ~.....Qd,_ ~ l"---1!.~ 2" ~__Q_i_ ~ l"I. -lli.-19.1.=!__ 2'-____illt___Q_J_ ______m_ 1"--»i_~ 2,_ ~ ~ -Z,., ~---1...fil. 3"' ~-1_.l ~ 1"-~ 3" _..Qd. Totol _.6,976 10% 78,1'7 15" 0.6 42,277 9" 53,JS4 ll'Jf. 0.1 40.70◄ 9" _.2,565 9" 1.0 22,397 S" 22,590 5" 1.0 78,135 17'% 48,127 9" 1.6 455.201 517.◄07 09 ------.... l,63Sc:::ii) ,,r. 11,206 l◄'K 12'1i 0.3 3,◄27[iil 5'i. 7,268 1-4% 11" 0.5 J,1◄.J Cii) 5" 6,656 16% 1<>"' 0.5 2,199[Jji] 4" 4,759 21"4 7"' 0.6 15.144 ~ 23"' 9,909 21% 11% 1.5 67.196~ 94,091 181' 07 Jobs -Industry Shor• 25%,-------------------------------------------------------------- 22% ,-- 10% 15~ 15% 13% '°" 5~ °" Ion ID 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% -f'7l -_, .---, .---, L. ij 12% i □nn l n 9% D 13% 12% 8% I Retail Trade I nformotion Professional, Scientific, end Technical Services Health Core and Social Assistance ■ Oceanside a Vista D San Morcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad D North County 6% ■~nn l n Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Lobor -Industry Shore "",-------------------------------------------;--;:::;-----------------------------------------. ~ 2" " " 10% 10% Retail Trade 13% 9% 8% i □nn i ~ ~□nn i □ Information Professional, Scientific, end T echniccl Services Heolth Ccre and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation ■Oceanside a Visto □San Morcos □Encinitas ■Carlsbad tJNorth County Tl-I C:0'£0«.DC:-AO\P DRAFT 0 1.00 .... L-S.000.oo N soo-00 N 8,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 16.0% 14.0% 12.0'5 1µ;)% Cl) 3 ~ 6.0% " QI O'Q &i0% N 0 ~ -..J w 0.0% Retail Trade 2010 Retail Trade 2014 '.1% .. 1 ,, ~-.,.~ EXHIBIT l-2C EMPLOYMENT -HISTORICAL INDUSTRY GROWTH CARLSBAD, CA 2002 AND 2019 lhift Share -2002-2019 lnformoHon Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Core and Social Assistance 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ■2007 ■2008 ■2009 ■2010 ■2011 ■2012 ■2013 ■2014 ■2015 ■2016 ■2017 ■2018 ■2019 2019 11.0% Annual Job Growth -2002-2019 2019 2010 9. 201' 2010 Information Professional, Scientific, and T echnicol Services Health Core and Social Assistance 2019 7.5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ■2012 ■2013 ■2014 ■2015 ■2016 ■2017 ■2018 ■2019 Sou,a: •On The Map• • US Genius Bureau, Center few Economic. StudiM 11.....00-1,..,0.c........ ...... 27 Arts, Entertainment, ond Recreation 201A 2019 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation I t-1 a::>f\.COlO (.a.CXF DRAFT 0 n r' ..., _-.J N 0 ~ -,-~ ~ ~ ~ Historical Employment (OOOs) 2006 136,434 1,314 2011 131,922 1,250 2016 144,329 1,422 2021 143,402 1,411 5-Yr Annual Growth -185.4 (0.1%) -2.3 (0.2%) 10-Yr Annual Growth 1,148.1 0.8% 16.1 1.2% Employment Forecast (0OOs) 2021 143,402 0.0% 1,411 0.0% 2026 154,287 1,543 5-Yr Annual Growth 2,176.9 1.5% 26.5 1.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% ~ EXHIBIT 1-2C GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS • EMPLOYMENT SAN DIEGO MSA & SELECT US METROS 2006 THROUGH 2026 Peer Metros Nashville Charlotte San Jose Austin Raleigh Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. 785 989 905 736 491 786 976 896 812 509 950 1,147 1,080 1,001 600 1,014 1,184 1,086 1,098 619 12 . 8 .__,!,,;l% 7,4 0.6% LO 0.1% 19.5 ~ 3.9 0.6% 22.8 r 2.6% 20.8 2.0% 19.0 1.9% 28.6 L :l,1%' 11.0 2.0% 1,014 0.0% 1,184 0.0% 1,086 0.0% 1,098 0.0% 619 0.0% 1,110 1,305 1,187 1,264 690 19.2 1.8% 24.2 2.0% 20. 2 -Ls,/; 33.1 [,_2.8% 14.2 2.2% Historical Employment Growth + 11-------'----.-11----'--- N 11ego Nashville Charlotte Son Jose Austin Ra~igh -1.0% "'C QJ (IQ n, -~ 0 Comf!titive Metros Boston Los Angeles New York San Francisco Dallas Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. ------------------------------ 2,431 5,746 8,753 2,037 2,917 2,448 5,338 8,719 1,957 3,003 2,699 5,983 9,557 2,328 3,504 2,577 5,749 9,112 2,285 3,754 -24.5 (0.9<i!!l -46.9 (0.8%J -88.9 (0.9%) -8.5 (0.4%) 50.1 1.4% 12.9 0.5% 41.0 0.7% 39.3 0.4% 32.8 1.6% 75.1 2.3% 2,577 0.0% 5,749 0.0% 9,112 0.0% 2,285 0.0% 3,754 0.0% 2,786 6,240 9,870 2,508 4,259 42.0 1.6% 98.3 1.7% 151.5 1.6% 44.6 1.9% 101.0 2.6% ~ I -5-Yr (2016-2021) = 10-Yr (2011-2021) ---US 5-Yr ---US 10-Yr I w Color= Growth Ronk (red= 1-2, orange= 3-4, yellow= 5-6, green = 7-8, blue= 9-10, purple= 11) Source, Moody's (Updated 1.24.22) 17571.03 GrowthResil,MelroGr-Emp Page 1 of 1 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n r> ,__. EXHIBIT 1-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 ~ ---------, . ... --... 0 ~ ~~~'-<>::' 2009AIIJobs-~61k ~ -•~!{'-r.., G o,l''-.,;' • '" • ,· • • ._. .. • ... -s. o ·o ~;. ,. . ._ ,,_,. • .. • o J qi ~·-rn -:_ '".... • c-.~-~ 5 -699 Job3'Sq.Mllo ■ 700 -2. 781 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 2.782 -6.252 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ G.253 -11,111 Jobs/Sq.Mlle 5 . 784; Jobo/Sq.1111" ■ 787 -l, 129 Jobs/Sq.Mi kt ■ 3,130 -7,035 JobslSq.Mile -·•.:-• I 2019 All Jobs. 453k ~ 1•:· -:· • ~ o,O, 6 rn • • C> 0 ., .~.-,,. . •·· -.: . : ,. . •o-.. ,• <>,o l O. y '~,~~;u-.-.~/~f. ~0!, · ,..,,............ ·--_... --,., -f.i-0 • :_: __ f ~~~ ,=-... ■ 11,112 -17,359 Jobs/Sq.Mlle • 1 .BJobs ®.,. .., J ~(£~ .. L . • -·! r-- \,....} • ,I , 0 ... 00 f . ~ . - i' ~ .,-0 0 .• •• • _r .-~ : ".-. -" ~~-: .. .o•o Cl.._•• ~/!-;;s•·" j.;''l{~o .••;~,~/4, ~-<> -. . :, . . -" ~ ~-. ·~ .. · . . : ~ ; • ~ , . • " . •/·M o_o •'Lo,_:, J" rf,--' .. · .,_ ,,;· · · ' ·. ~ •. :,,6,1': ., 0 .,. • ? 0 • ' o .';:. " . :,,, •" lo:o o . • -' ",._. ~-':J>" . • .• : • '.'ci. • ~-,. • . • ~ ,' . P.'!°'l. ~-'" . -~ o,-., \" i ·3" , .. '. . o o-f ~- o Pow•y .... ~,:1°' . • ,-:: ... -. ~-r, .;,~i" . . .. r. ~ -;!;.'lf?F..r,$1!f!lf ~--•-.C• -••A ~.:'.o ... Source: US Census Bureau, Cenler for Economic Studies (On the Map) 21604.00 Mocro2: Heat-Jobs .,:;- ■ 7,036 -12.504 JobslSq.lllle ■ 12,505 -19,535 Jobo/Sq.Mlle • 1 -10 Jobs . --0 : -"" . I . :s .--:-';. ·\ ·. '.,:;'® .. ~, . . • .. -"· . -'----' q, ' " . • • d ~."' ----1 . • p ... ~-g~ 00 '.I • I • • ..:;-~ 'o. Q, -• • L "-... - ;Jf-0~·.1 'ft'";, ~ ,o ' D-• : •• ~ 0 ,· ~- '? o-0~•. :·. o'-1 •-:~~~· ~ ...._ ... ,., -o 0 . .. . . 0 .... () ~ Q • (\. • 0 °"---t.• ;:,._o·1•) "o~ ...,.?. -· .. 0 • •• 0 .ft,'o .• -;~ ••• 0~ Cl-~:.. ~-~ \;• ,u-~ .. - 0 0 0 T HE CO NCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n r' -~~ N -s . N -1._ f 'J ,,,. ... 1,..,, ---~?,. c-. 0 ., ~ ~ """' .. > o• • .. -• • I • .:c O oql ~ ••• !A • • 9 ,.. 0 . ,0 J--.:, .. ~ .. i:h "',_CF.lo .... . ·1· .. ' I 0 Note: Boxes · iobs per squore mile liob intensity/ density) ·" ~ ..,0 !';. " .. •,·1• •8 · . ~~::••o Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Mop) 21604.00 Mocro2: Heot-Jobs EXHIBIT 1-20 JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 5. 297 Jobs/Sq.MIio ■ 298 -1, 1D Jobs/Sq.MHe ■ 1,174 . 2.634 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 2,635 . 4.679 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ ,(.680. 7,309 Jobs/Sq.Mlle • 1 -5 Job• 0 6 -70 Joba ·"· .. ®~ IJL-J- ~ - Poway " . Ith Core • 53K 112%) ~ n 2019Heo _ "---. •,ff:..:.,, . -~½ ·_ • . e?o ;·o . ~ ' . ..,r·~.s ~-;' ~ c-0 " •• '"r~f ·/•,oc . . P-cnS.W. • ~-.~'J?. • "'· .. • . ' _.~ ;,,:_-_-'f_·.~~-. -•,_ :~ 1 r . r 0 ,o :~· . ._.· ~-~ . 'd'·~ • .. u· ~~!"l~~,.~~ ... ~ ~. • 0 0 5 -297 Job8J'Sq.llil■ ■ 298 -1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 1,174 -2.634 Jobo/Sq.Mllo ■ 2,635. ,(.679 Jobo/Sq.Mllo ■ 4,680 . 7,309 Jobo/Sq.Milo , 1 -5Jobo 0 6 -70Job• o 71 -351 Jobe e 352 -1, 108 Jobs • ,. 109. 2,705 Job• . • -@} _0• 0 ·.;J_• ~ Ji ,•t I ,;,_._' '. -! -r ~ o " -' ;••.n . o ..J ,a ::.:' uq, IO '••·i~i ~ .\) .... ~~-. • C -y ~'.:..,.:it! T HE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 , . .,.,,,. .. , ;_. J 2009 Manufadurmg • ~ \.,,"---½j__ . . '. .;.::: 9 . . ' -...J \ i ·-- Iv • P.-.onSocd> ~ / '("'-J Oceanside-re _! , .. ~'l-~o -~ · L .,;o .Q. ,ta • ~ •o · .• 'i. . :et ~nci~Lta1 I -----,, ~ On. r\i-:... D.IM•o1 • (8 •.• ii ·-' .,.~ J·Jr l~ ---,,:: -..., ... s,... a Nole: Boxes • jobs per square mile (job intensity/ density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs EXHIBIT 1-20 JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 VS. 2019 5 -388 Jollll/Sq.Mlle ■ 38, -1,!>40 Jobs/Sq.Mlle \ ✓ J ;1 -1 ~ ... ,~ F;, -~J ,,.._ ... 5 -392 Jobll/Sq.Milo ■ 393 -1,553 Jobs/Sq.MIio ■ 1,!>41 -3,458 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 3,459 -6, 145 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 6,146 -9,599 Jobs/Sq.MHe • 1 -5Jobs .. 0 0 PoN•y ... r ~-- ·--·<·~ ...__,, " 0 ,,,......, .A .., "f ~ ~ ~·-·~7 " ) _._,_ ~c:-· fM• • ·~ , : 7.":r,,-.,_~-· 0 IC!;.. • •.-:. -- ,.. •--~-L ~ ,::.-. I -·------i I ·~ ■ 1,5!>4 -3,489 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 3,490 -6, 199 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 6.200 -9,684 JobolSq.Mlle • 1-6Job• • 7 -82Jobs o 83 -414 Join .. .A ~\<"'\:of~\-.'. • " l • • ,J -t 9: v 0 0 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n " -~ \ Ji ~ ~-1. ~ J{ •• ~~Sol.d, . ~. -~ ., -38K (1 0.5%) I f ..,;,,J, / ~- Note: Boxes -jobs per square mile (job intensity/ d;nsity) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Mop) 21604.00 Mocro2: Heat-Jobs EXHIBIT 1-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 VS. 2019 5 . 167 .Jobo/Sq.Mlle ■ 168 -654 .Jobs/Sq.1111• ■ 6S5. 1,466 Jobs/Sq.llile ■ 1,M;T -2,602 Jobs/Sq.llile ■ 2,603. 4,064 JobolSq.Mlle • 1 .2Jobs o 3 .27.Jobs O 28-134.Jobs -1 \ ~-~ 5 -193 J C! 194 . 760 o~Sq.Mile . . ■ 761 _ 1 '104 obs/Sq.lllle .. :-){ ■ 1 705 • Jobo/Sq.Mlle • .3,on J o ■ 3,028 -4,727 /b&/Sq.llile m ik~i~:::._ -.... ; . • 5J2 -1,297 Jobs ' ~==---~ -- . 'f'IL · : ~. ,~.o , ..__ ·-"(l¥1c.-' n ... 0 0 r · , Cl I o·-. -~·✓-:.-'-\,~ -~ ? ; 1 .. 1 0 7 · ~ "' . 0 _r u_ · o THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 -r Vista Son Morcos Encinitas North Coun!l Ge~roeh~: Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. ~ Living in Selected Geography Jobs/labor Ratio Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201 Employed Lobor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/lobor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 Commute to Worlc: Livin in Distance to Work Under l 0-Miles 21,391 44% 33,393 43% 26,956 51% 20,189 47% 9,556 42% 215,189 42% 10-24 Miles 11,882 25% 16,071 21% 9,550 18% 10,137 24% 7,229 32% 151,099 29% 25-50 Miles 5,549 12% 13,880 18% 7,200 14% 3,819 9% 1,091 5% 54,152 10% Over 50-Miles 9,305 19% 14,803 19% 9,448 18% 8,420 20% 4,714 21% 96,967 19% Oiredion of Work Northerly 20,977 44% 26,085 33% 16,373 31% 15,475 36% 10,921 48% 187,276 36% Southerli 21,534 45% 43,538 56% 30,262 57% 17,456 41% 9,722 43% 260,597 50% Eosterly 15,127 31% 28,740 37% 12,036 23% 8,407 20% 6,524 29% 110,534 21% Wesierly 16,111 33% 24,223 31% 21,590 41% 21 ,209 50% 6,688 30% 230,425 45% Location of Work Surrounding Cities Corlsbod city, CA 11,416 14.6% 2,672 5.7% 2,049 4.8% 1,769 4.3% 2,522 11.3% Oceonsk:le city, CA 11,370 14.6% 13,708 29.2% 5,724 13.5% 3,401 8.4% 2,158 9.6% Son Diego city, CA 9,116 11.7% 3,149 6.7% 3,337 7.9% 3,913 9.6% 3,800 17.0% Vista city, CA 6,546 8.4% 4,521 9.6% 7,129 16.9% 2,980 7.3% 1,061 4.7% San Marcos city, CA 4,671 6.0% 1,819 3.9% 2,884 6.8% 5,751 14.1% 1,037 4.6% Escondido city, CA 3,780 4.8% 2,057 4.4% 3,110 7.4% 4,784 11.8% 1,040 4.6% Encinitas city, CA 2,996 3.8% 840 1.8% 747 1.8% 812 2.0% 3,551 15.9% Solano Beach city, CA 313 0.4% 111 0.2% 100 0.2% 92 0.2% 241 1.1% Lake Son Morcos COP, CA 268 0.3% 66 0.1% 124 0.3% 232 0.6% 70 0.3% Subtotal 50,476 64.6% 28,943 ~ 25,204 ~ 23,734 ~ 15,480 ~ North of Carlsbad Los Angeles city, CA 1,511 1.9% 854 1.8% 722 1.7% 837 2.1% 362 1.6% Long Beach city, CA 311 0.4% 179 0.4% 158 0.4% 172 0.4% 65 0.3% Son Jose city, CA 267 0.3% 43 0.1% 49 0.1% 293 0.7% 21 0.1% Son Francisco city, CA 169 0.2% 30 0.1% 39 0.1% 32 0.1% 27 0.1% Orange County 0.0% Anaheim city, CA 307 0.4% 179 0.4% 156 0.4% 110 0.3% 57 0.3% Santa Ano city, CA 285 0.4% 187 0.4% 166 0.4% 126 0.3% 50 0.2% Irvine city, CA -241 0.3% 137 0.3% 84 0.2% 99 0.2% 40 0.2% Mission Viejo city, CA 239 0.3% 128 0.3% 85 0.2% 95 0.2% 34 0.2% Son Clemente city, CA 222 0.3% 127 0.3% 84 0.2% 69 0.2% 51 0.2% Laguna Niguel city, CA 207 0.3% 122 0.3% 72 0.2% 52 0.1% 40 0.2% Gorden Grove city, CA 199 0.3% 103 0.2% 70 0.2% 70 0.2% 26 0.1% Huntington Beoch city, CA 169 0.2% 96 0.2% 75 0.2% 69 0.2% 43 0.2% Newport Beach city, CA 168 0.2% 61 0.1% 48 0.1% 37 0.1% 25 0.1% lake Forest city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 40 0.1% 37 0.2% Tustin city, CA 149 0.2% 55 0.1% 47 0.1% 44 0.1% 27 0.1% Rancho Santo Margarito city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 46 0.1% 18 0.1% Subtotal 4,742 ~ ~ ~ -----i;m-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ South Son Diego Chula Vista city, CA 938 1.2% 554 1.2% 541 1.3% 523 1.3% 374 1.7% El Cajon city, CA 342 0.4% 283 0.6% 210 0.5% 253 0.6% 175 0.8% Notional City city, CA 239 0.3% 137 0.3% 133 0.3% 133 0.3% 89 0.4% lo Mesa city, CA 202 0.3% 170 0.4% 113 0.3% 134 0.3% 118 0.5% Sublotol 1,721 ~ ---u« ~ -wr ~~ ------wr ~ ~ Inland East Counties Follbrook CDP, CA 663 0.8% 888 1.9% 900 2.1% 519 1.3% 118 0.5% T emeculo city, CA 583 0.7% 561 1.2% 462 1.1% 483 1.2% 133 0.6% Poway city, CA 581 0.7% 162 0.3% 263 0.6% 440 1.1% 241 1.1% Murrieta city, CA 560 0.7% 489 1.0% 440 1.0% 435 1.1% 116 0.5% Menifee city, CA 438 0.6% 340 0.7% 300 0.7% 352 0.9% 97 0.4% Riverside city, CA 320 0.4% 241 0.5% 230 0.5% 289 0.7% 79 0.4% Santee city, CA 237 0.3% 155 0.3% 111 0.3% 115 0.3% 94 0.4% Corona city, CA 224 0.3% 122 0.3% 103 0.2% 118 0.3% 35 0.2% Moreno Volley city, CA 209 0.3% 221 0.5% 185 0.4% 177 0.4% 52 0.2% Valley Center COP, CA 186 0.2% 103 0.2% 175 0.4% 244 0.6% 46 0.2% Romano CDP, CA 153 0.2% 123 0.3% 126 0.3% 197 0.5% 69 0.3% lo Presa CDP, CA 143 0.2% 91 0.2% 84 0.2% 101 0.2% 46 0.2% Son Bernardino city, CA 142 0.2% 119 0.3% 116 0.3% 108 0.3% 33 0.1% French Volley CDP, CA 138 0.2% 109 0.2% 113 0.3% 106 0.3% 30 0.1% Subtotal 4,577 ~ ~ ~ -----uos ------i@i ~ ~ ~ ~ Remoinins Cities 16,619 ~ ~ ~ .....!22..!Z. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Subtotal 78,135 100% 46,976 100% 42,277 100% 40,704 100% 22,397 100% Source: •on The Mop' • US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Oct. 17, 2022 21604.00 Mocro2: JobC Item #2 45 Page 68 of 173 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT I-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Directional Breakdown of Where Workers Live Who are Employed Within the City of Carlsbad as a Percent of Total Jobs ■ Surrounding Cilies ■ North of Carlsbad ■ Soulh San Diego ■ Inland Eosl Counties■ Remaining Cilies Job Counts by Distance/Direction In 2019 All Wor1<c,s N Jobs by Olttanc.. Wort< Ctt1tu1 Block to Home Cen1u1 Bkx:k 1t,tal Prtma,y JObl 2011 Count SNr• n219 100°"' 35,650 '94% 12968 18.°' 10 319 14.3% 13282 18A"' Top Five Cities of Where Workers Live Who Are Employed in the City of Carlsbad as a Percent of Total Jobs • Oceanside city, CA • San Diego city, CA • Vista city, CA ■ San Marcos city, CA■ Escondido city, CA Individuals Employed in the City of Carlsbad and Live in a Surrounding Major Metro Area .,, 12000 0 -5 10000 ·;; 'ii 8000 .£ ~ 6000 >-0 4000 0.. E w 2000 0 ~ 0 ..a E Carlsbad :, Oceanside ■ Los Angeles city, CA Vista San Marcos Encinitas z ■ Son Diego city, CA ■ San Francisco city, CA ■ Irvine city, CA ■ Riverside city, CA Key Takeaways 1. The ci1y of Carlsbad has a high concentration of individuals who are commuting from the greater Son Diego area to jobs located within the city. 2. Outside of the major surrounding cities, a high portion of commuters ore traveling from coastal northern cities and counties {Greater Los Angeles, Orange County) Sourcoct'_n i7/~o'2 ~5 Census Bureau, Center for Economic Sludies 21604.00 Mocro2, JobC Item #2 Page 69 of 173 46 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Geography: Jobs/Lobor Rotio Jobs Employed Labor Jobs/labor Net Job Inflow'+"/'·' Outflow Living Outside Selection Area Employed Labor Employed labor living Oulaide Selection Aleo Worl<•rs Eoming $1,250 pt,r month or less Worii:en Earning Sl,25110 SJ,333 per month Woric:eoa Earning Mor• thon $3,333 ~ month Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 5-4 Workers Aged 55 or older Living in Selection Area Total Jobs Em~oyed labor living in Selection Area Woriters Earning $1,250 pt,r month or lest Work•• Eoming $1 ,251 to $3,333 p• month Worhrs Earning Mof• than $3,333 p.r month Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older Internal Jobs Filled by Outside Workers Total Jobs Employed in Selec1ion Area but living Outside Wori<ers Eaming $1,250 per month or less Woticeo Eorn,ng S1,251 lo S3,333 P• inonth Work..-. Eoming Mol-"• !non $3,333 p..-month Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older 80,000 70,000 60,000 EXHIBIT 1-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS -INFLOW/ O UTFLOW NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 -Ide Vi1to Son Marcos Encinitas Num. Pere. 78,135 48,127 1.6 30,008 48,127 36,821 6,608 8,145 22,068 6,483 20,491 9,847 78,135 11,306 2,337 2,641 6,328 2,221 6,221 2,864 78,135 66,829 12,395 20,530 33,904 16,743 35,998 14,088 46,976 78,147 0.6 38" (1) -31,171 77% (2) 18% 22% 60% (3) 18% 56% 27% 14% (2) 21% 23% 56% (3) 20% 55% 25% 86% 19% 31% 51% 25% 54% 21% 78,147 64,146 12,334 21,445 30,367 15,050 33,943 15,153 46,976 14,001 3,562 5,298 5,141 3,279 7,033 3,689 46,976 32,975 7,101 12,371 13,503 8,165 17,452 7,358 42,277 53,154 0.8 -66% (1) • 10,877 82% (2) 19% 33% 47% 23% 53% 24% 30% (2) 25% 38% 37% 23% 50% 26% 70% 22% 38% 41 % 25% 53% 22% 53,154 44,737 8,191 15,243 21,303 10,918 23,603 10,216 42,277 8,417 1,687 3,768 2,962 1,956 4,279 2,182 42,277 33,860 5,167 12,589 16,104 7,280 18,494 8,086 40,704 42,565 1.0 -26% (1) -1,861 84% (2) 18% 34% 48% 24% 53% 23% 20% (2) 20% 45% 35% 23% 51% 26% 80% 15% 37% 48% 22% 55% 24% 42,565 36,498 6,296 10,864 19,338 7,879 20,359 8,260 40,704 6,067 1,524 2,192 2,351 1,451 3,165 1,451 40,704 34,637 6,901 12,703 15,033 8,391 18,422 7,824 2019 City Jobs Inflow Outflow 22,397 22,590 1.0 -5% (1) -193 86% (2) 17% 30% 53% 22% 56% 23% 15% 12) 25% 36% 39% 24% 52% 24% 85% 20% 37% 43% 24% 53% 23% 22,590 19,506 3,266 4,061 12,179 3,313 10,991 5,202 22,397 3,084 903 921 1,260 654 1,573 857 22,397 19,313 4,552 6,512 8,249 5,061 10,072 4,180 North County Num. ~ 455,201 517,407 0.9 -1%(1) -62,206 -14% (1) 86% 12) 17% 21% 62% 17% 56% 27% 14% 12) 29% 30% 41% 21% 51% 28% 86% 24% 34% 43% 26% 52% 22% 517,407 256,375 42,756 62,567 151,052 50,116 143,781 62,478 455,201 259,531 51,587 84,280 123,664 56,686 137,855 64,990 455,201 194,423 34,110 61,396 98,917 46,555 107,062 40,806 80% 60% 50% 12) 17% 24% 59% 20% 56% 24% 57% 12) 20% 32% 48% 22% 53% 25% 43% 18% 32% 51% 24% 55% 21% ..8 50,000 ..9 ...__ 40,000 +---;---+-+---+-+-...:+-l------+-~-----t---=::~~------.:,---- 130,000 40% i 20% '§ 0 0% ~ -20% ,2 20,000 10,000 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Jobs ■ Employed Labor • Net Job Inflow/Outflow Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living in Selection Area 56% 39" 41% -------Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas • Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area • Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area ■ Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area C -40% i -60% -80% 48" - North County Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 70 of 173 Tl-lE CONCORD GROUP 21604.00 Macro2, lnAowOutflow DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS -INFLOW/ OUTFLOW NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living Outside of the Selection Area 100% 80% 51% 48% 60% 40% -20% -0% ---Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas • Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percenf of employed labor living in selection area • Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area • Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area Carlsbad ,nnow/Outftow Job Counts In 2019 -H .129 · Emp6oyed In Setectk>ft Al"H, Uve Ouhlde lfi.121 · Uve In S.lecUon ArN. Employed Oulsldt: -ll.30G-Employed and Uveln Se:~nAreo Son Morcos lnftow/Outflow Job Counts In 2019 -34,637 • Ernl)loyed In k4ectlon Area. LJve Oubide 36.4H • Uve In S.l«Uon N ff, Employf!d OUl"ICM -6,067 • Employed and u .... In SelKUOn ~ Key Takeaways: Encinitas Inflow/Outflow Job Counts In 20U -11,313 -Emp~d In Selection Area. Live Outside 19,$08 • LN-. ffl s..i.cuon Alea. Employff 01,!(Slde -J,OU -Cmpk,ycd •nd u ~ In Selection A(H Vista lnftow/Oot.11ow Job Counts In 2019 -33,360. Empki~d In Sd«t:IO,, Nee, Live OUtsld'° u .737 -Uve lnSe!ect:lon Arn. E:mplo-,.d OUtsltM -1.417 . (mployed .net Live In Selectk,n AIH Oceanside lnflow/Ovtffow Job Counts In 20U -32,975 -Employed In -5.tection Area, Live Outsl~ S-1,148 · Lllle In S.letOon ArH, EmPk)yed Ovttlde -t•.001 -Employed Mtd Uve In Selection Are-a 51% - North County 1. The city of Carlsbad experiences the highest level of inflow among ifs four surrounding cities with o 30k influx of employed labor in 2019, accounting for 38% of all jobs within the city. The city with the next highest inflow/ outflow metric, Encinitas, hos o slighf negative outflow and hos o considerably smaller jobs footprint of the five cities surveyed. 2. The city of Carlsbad has o higher concentration of individuals who earn $3,333 monthly over the rest of the five cities surveyed and for North County for bofh individuals living within Carlsbad and for those who travel to Carlsbad for work. 3. There is o higher influx of workers who reside within fhe city Oceanside, but travel lo Carlsbad for work. Source: "On The Map" -US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Oct. 17, 2022 21604.00 Macro2: lnflowOutflow Item #2 Page 71 of 173 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n "" ~ Total ln-Mi9ration -.J Sois,i: Num. 0 To~ States California 51,601 Virginia 5,906 Texas 5,607 Arizona 5,393 Washington 4,644 Florido 4,167 Illinois 3,826 New York 3,189 Colorado 3,039 Hawaii 2,692 Rem. States 40,354 Total 130,418 Top 25 Counties Los Angeles County, California 10,270 Riverside County, California 8,087 Orange County, California 7,328 San Bernardino County, California 4,823 Santo Claro County, California 2,782 Maricopa County, Arizona 2,331 Honolulu County, Hawaii 2,003 Alameda County, California 1,861 Beaufort County, South Carolina 1,769 Clark County, Nevada 1,757 Cook County, Illinois 1,657 King County, Washington 1,644 S<lll. Francisco County, California 1,329 l~eriol County, California 1,204 Onslow County, North Carolina 1,192 C3btro Costa County, California 1,174 s&-amento County, California 1,108 Ventura County, California 1,108 Vij inio Beach city, Virginia 1,090 Pi a County, Arizona 1,063 ~ County, California 949 El,.epso County, Colorado 944 Stb.lislous County, California 853 T~ont County, Texas 848 SC)l'lla Barbaro County, California 837 Rii!I. Counties 70,407 Total 130,418 Source: US Census, Census Flows Mapper (2015 to 2019) 17571.03 Migration: Summ Share 39.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 30.9% 7.9% 6.2% 5.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 54.0% EXHIBIT l-2F MIGRATION PATTERNS SAN DIEGO COUNTY 2015TO2019 Top 25 Counties -Share of In Migration Los Angeles County, California Riverside County, California Orange County, California Son Bernardino County, California Santo Claro County, California Maricopa County, Arizona Honolulu County, Hawaii Alameda County, California Beaufort County, South Carolina Clark County, Nevada Cook County, Illinois King County, Washington Son Francisco County, California Imperial County, California Onslow County, North Carolina Contra Costa County, California Sacramento County, California Ventura County, California Virginia Beach city, Virginia Pima County, Arizona Kern County, California El Paso County, Colorado Stanislaus County, California Tarrant County, Texas Santo Barbaro County, California 0% 49 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2F 0 DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY -MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATION SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK (') ..... I-' ,-...i ~ Percentage of San Diego, CA N N Redfin users searching in ... San Drego, c:,. 7 3 7t-a -E sew rsere 26 3~o Destination as% o f Orig i n Leavers All Los Angeles, CA 35.3% Bay Area I .! 1.% Seattle, WA 13 ~o Phoenix, AZ 13 ~o Dallas, TX 13 :% las Vegas, NV 13 o:e ~ Portland, OR I : S~o ~ Nashville, TN I: 7:'o Washington, DC I : 7':o "O Q) O'Q (!) Houston, TX I : ,=o -..J ~ Source: Redfm use✓ search data for Q4 202: -I-' -..J w Source: Redlin 21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration 2021 \ ' -----=----- © 2022 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap Key Ta keaways: Son Diego Residents using Redfin to seek housing, hove most frequently searched the most northernly proximate major metro Los Angeles. Likely Due to Los Angeles being one of southern California's most robust and diverse employment a nd cultural hubs. ·~~ Or g n --> Des1:inat o, THE CONCORD GRO UP DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2F DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY -MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATION 0 SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK n 2021 fT I-' ,-....1 N Quarterly Ran k of Met ro Destinations for San Diego, CA 0 N As percent of o rig in looking from crestinat or N 0 ::> Oest Display ■ Aus:ir -X ■ D3llas, TX . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 0 ..as Ve~as 'JV -39 :;,;,. ■ _os .::.r ge cs, CA -=,,.,oe,ix ,. ~z -• • • • • ""' -~ -----• -• • • • • • • • 2 _ ?on:la-d, OR 4.:.::: Sa~ra "nerrto .. ::A ■ Se-Jose. CA 3 • • • • • J -" ~ '~---• )I '.,_.-.. --.1 .... )I '• • • • 3 ~t 3 ■ 5e.:1n:re~ \l'/:l ■ il\ias-•.ns;:on DC ~v ~_.''\ I ~ ~ .: • • • • • • • • • ~ • 4 -,,. 3 3", "" "' -----' C: "o, \{ 3. :.~c ·c: 5 • • • ---... -tt ~ ~-----0 ...... .... .. ,. _ ___._ -.. 5 0 t:: 11. "' 4 < 6 .__. • • -----t" ~ ·~ ·~ •----· -. • • .-... 8 ~ / 3 o=-:: Cl 'ts --"" C: 7 ·l\~r::----• -; \ 11\ "' --)\ I\ ------◄ -; °' : !>"~ ,...,. rt> 8 • .,__. ' ~ V -----3 --• • • • s :..7~.:-=1:1: N 9 \ ., .. c ? • • • • • • • • ·\ ' • • • • 9 : 6""~ "'tJ QJ OQ rt> ::.o • • • -..-,._.,._. ... • • ~----•~• -.. .. --e,c·-• 10 -..J : 3<>., +:> 0 -.:..1 1:. I-' -..J 2017 Q3 2018Q3 2019 Q3 Z:>20Q3 202103 w Source: Redfin 21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migrotion THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n :--- 1-' ,-...J N 0 N N ;:::;: 11) 3 :tt N "'O QI OQ 11) -...J V, 0 -+, I-' -...J lJJ EXHIBIT l-2F DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY -MIGRATION: USPS ADDRESS CHANGES (2019 VS 2020) SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK Change in Moves to San Diego MSA (USPS) -In Migration Los Angeles MSA I 1 an Francisco MSA Bremerton MSA San Jose MSA ~ OtherMSA Sacramento MSA :=:::J Las Vegas MSA t:J Seattle MSA t::I Riverside MSA □ PhoenixMSA 1:::1 Denver MSA ...J Portland MSA New York MSA Key Takeaways: Outside of the Washington MSA Bremerton area, the Dallas MSA top 4 cities that San Diego experienced the Boston MSA highest change in Chicago MSA individuals wanting to relocate from are all Honolulu MSA Coastal California. I rginia Beach MSA 2021 Change in Moves out of the San Diego MSA (USPS) -Out Migration Riverside MSA Phoenix MSA Los Angeles MSA Dallas MSA San Antonio MSA Sacramento MSA Houston MSA Las Vegas MSA Portland MSA San Francisco New York MSA San Jose MSA Seattle MSA Key Takeaways: The Riverside area will pose a threat to growth of the North County region due to Riverside counties growing relocation appeal for its lower rents and the increasing normalization of work from home scenarios. -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Increase in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020 Increase in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020 Source: CBRE (April 2021 ), USPS 21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-3 DEMOGRAPHICS -SUMMARY PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2021 THROUGH 2026 11-~~j,--11·~11--.. c..1! ---: ·I-I '""---11 .. ._0..11 .. c:o. .. ~' I ... 11--11 ......_ =11~;,,,,jo-11 Cola-Hilla II !d!!I, So,,.,-T ~r111 3.961 ~r,11 t,9?S "'4""""""' "' Ot/Yr{I, '21-"l6) 1r~~ 13" 17 OOl(HH~ 11 "11-?6t ,..,. f ('21) $@If ""'""""""' .. Hou.OlhaldSi..le(21) Avwarg,e~SlH 1.78 1_,.,_ ...,. .,_,.._ "" ··-'"' AfiJ9 S.-kdown 1"21) .......,,,.,. '3.7 U""-70 , ... 10-,, ,. ,,.,, ~{"" 3S. .. "" '"" 1~ .,. .. 1~ 6$-]A ... 75+ '°" 1rc-er-kdown(2l) Median Inc- n.C:O~ n A....-ogelr-come I """"''""' 32" S.50-$75K ·~ $75--SlOOK { ... $1(».$1SOI( 11• $150-$2001( ~ '2~ 0,,,,$200( Net Worf, &r.ok~ ("21) ~lon"-'WO<ffl -c.""""' m A..-ogeNetWor,t, I Urd.r SSOK -S.S0-$250(. "" S'250-S500K 10. S.SOO.SIM '" IIM-S1.5M 3" SL.5M-S1M "' O-S2M ,. ~: ESRl;US<:.ntva(AnwficonFodfind.'1 ;:::;: 11) 3 # N "'O Q) O'Q 11) -..J 0) 0 -..... -..J w '21690,00 o.moo.mond: Olmo 15.Jb! ·--·= 7.588 7,151 3,569 1,779 1.01, '2,764 "" "' ,.. 6" 3" 1" ~ I 61 ... 36 ,. 1 " 1301 (711 0 P•l 0,,.. 0,,.. O.l'I 0,,,. uwc ,w I ,. "' 3n ,.. 7.50 , ..• 15' 755 ,,. 7"' ,.. ,,.. 3K ,.,. -"" -'"' "" ""' -41.6 .. ~ '°·' <15 19" "" "" ,,. '" "' ... .. ~{::: ~{ ::~{ 1111 ~{··· 1111 13" "" "" 14 11, "" 15" ... 1 .... 11" ... ... 17'4 .. ,,. '" .. --· SlJ1,2AEf s1>oa1 l!O'Qllf ◄Mr::: :vn:m, st: °" ,., I ... "" , .. "" ... .. ,. "' { ... B{ :§ ~{ ... { 11• ~ :: 1,. ~ ;: 1111 "" ... ,,. ~-· •• I ifAI , ... ., ... r.a, ltJXW-1 .... , ,,.. 11• ,,.. '"' "" "" "" ,,. "" "" 11• 11" "" "" ... "" "' 11" .. "' ... "' "' "' 1"' 1•• 17" "" 6-3?6 17.771 12,135 3,760 6,0•S a.•60 ,,..., <,165 6,678 7.397 7.035 <,739 1.965 2,-471 '-790 ..... '2.010 7,387 ,. 16" 11' "' 6" .. 11" ,. ,. I ii I ttl I iiJ "" ... 3" 3" 3" ,.. 1~ "' ,. 90 .. ,. 36 77 90 ,. 73 1301 l"l , .. , (781 (79) ~3) ,.~ 130! 18) u, O.STt 0.1ft 0.3S 0.3S O.l'rt 0.S1. m 0,,,. •·•• ,., .., !i)ffl 1"' "" 13" 1• ~ ,.. "' 1, ,.. '2.61 ,.so 2.56 l.91 ,..,, 3.03 '2.96 '·"' ,,., -'"' '"' 3"" , .. 11' , .. "" ... '"' ,,,. '"' ,,.. -,.,. ,.,,. -31" ""' -,,.. '°" "" ""' "" "" ,,,. <0.7 '8.7 •1.1 39~ .,~ 41.0 37.6 SO.I Al.6 '"' ,,.. '"' 13" '"' -,.,. "" , .. .. "' '" ,. .. .. 3" "' '" ~{:~ ~{1:: ~{:: ~{= ~{:: ~{,~: ~{:: El{~: ~{:: "" "" "" '"' "" 1"" ,,.. "" "" '"' 155 1 .... ,,.. , ... '"' '"' 1"' "" 1~ 13" .. .. 11• "' ... ... •• 1~ 13" "' •• "' 3" ... 17'4 ,. ~•uoo; iii it¥■ s1ra.tto'I .... , AA.N I 11u ,9 1 Sl'&M == '"' ••~a, @aSM, ,. ""' ,.. s1so.Q; ,. !159.IMf ---■ JJ)DnisJ ,.. ,,. 1"' 77'4 ... '°" 17" 1"' .. .. "' ,. ,. •• ,. ,. "' ,.. { '" ~{1E {'°" {'°" ~{£ { .. B{:2 { 11• { "" ~ 7: 11• "" ~ £ ~ !!: ~11• ~ ,~ ~~ 78" '"" ... 1,,. 1~ 19" 17" 17'4 "" c:::::MiR DU.W A-s.sll.)ffl c::=•Mll r::::::::::::,p C:::-M@ m,£1, "" JJI n "" 1261'. "" , .. 38" +ewe I su.Mnn t IJ.ffl:7'f f ,o,w, ... m 19" "" , .. ,.. "" 10. "" 13" "' ,,,. 1a, ,.. 31. "" ... "" 19" 1"" 11, 12" "" .. 11• "" 17'4 ,,.. l<ll '"' , .. 1 .... .. "" , .. 19" 19" "" ... "" .. .. •• ,,.. 11" 1~ 1~ .. .. ,. "' •• 11• •• ,. ,. 17" ,.. 18" .. -,.. -,,.. '°" 8omo II - 3.135 7,657 11'U30 1,170 3,116 4',107 3" "' 100l< 716 -1~ 1""' • 50 673 (II) 179) , .. ~ m 0,,,. 0.5'1, C :,l!ijl 80.BS8 1" "' 1""' 2.75 , ... , ... 31" ,,,. "" "" "" "" "" ,,. "" 33.7 .. , Al.I ,.. '°" ,.. "" •• '" ~{ ::: ~{:: 0{1"' 13" 17'4 13" "" ... "" ... ,. ... 11, "' 1~ .. $120,203 'v , .. $157,775 ,,.. 11• , ... ... -~ .. {'"' B{,~ { 11, ~ :: 11, ~ ?l" ... "" ~65.549 , .. , 95'Ao ,..,. s2,1os.n1 ,,.. .. '"' 31. "" 73" "' 1~ 11" ,.. "" "" °" "" ... °" .. '" ~ "" 19" Tl IE co,,coRD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-3 DEMOGRAPHICS -SUMMARY PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2021 THROUGH 2026 0 i ~ 11 11 11 1-1 11 iflilii 1-1 Son o;ogoCounty n y,.,_ Solano Beach San-o.-r. e-.d;do Doi-:---Geography I-' Scale ,-..J Populot;on('21) 112,930 120,731 12,637 102,-484 -48,140 188,686 180,999 51,396 12,752 1,215,352 3,287,244 Houoehold, ('21 J 44,107 37,935 5,549 3-4,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,160 1,152,906 N " of North County I 11111 2211 t ~ 100% 0 G,ty, (#, '21,'26) 216 269 11 310 24 339 264 69 7 2,465 6,567 N ,C. of North County 9" 11% °" 13" 1% 14% 11% 3" °" 100% 266% N Ov« S 1 OOK HH C.owth m~ 53)] ' 5651 I • 6,262 16,204 Undo< S l OOK HH G,owth (407) (262) (50) (254) (137) (675) (465) (201) (65) (3,797) (9,638) G,ty, "'· '2 l-'26) 0.5% 0.7" 0.2% 0.9" 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3" 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% Employmont('2l) C g§H) 3s,mil ... , :,z,mi i UM 475,097 1,579,455 ,C. of Not1h County 17" 10% 2" 7" 6% '°" 14% 6% 2" 100% Hovs•hold Size ri, 1) Av«oge HH Size 2.54 3.12 2.28 2.99 2.91 2.76 3.10 2.46 2.20 2.84 2.76 1-P«son 24% 20% 30% 20% 16% 23" 20% 26% 28" 21% 24% 2-Person 36% 30% 39" 30% 32% 32% 29" 35% 43" 32% 31% 3+ Person 41% 50% 31% 50% 53" 45% 50% 38" 28" 47% 45% Age Breakdown {'21) M.d'ionAge 42.1 34.5 45.6 35.7 43.6 3-4.6 36.0 44.2 52.4 37.8 36.2 Undo< 20 24% 27" 19" 28" 23" 25% 27" 21% 16% 26% 24% 20-24 5% 7" 5% 6% 5% 9% 6% 5% 3% 7" 8% 25-34 8 {:~ 8{:~ ~{:~~{ 15% ~{11% ~ {:~ ~{ 15% ~{:~ 8{,;: ~{ "" ~{ 16% 35.44 14% 12% 13" 13% 13" 45-54 13" 11% 13" 12" \4% 10% 11% 13" 12" 12% 12% 55-64 "" llll 15% 10% 16% 11% 12% 15% 17" 13% 12% 65-74 11% 8% 13" 8" 11% 8% 9" 12" 17" 9" 9" 75+ 8" 6% 10% 7" 7" 7% 6% 9" 13" 7% 6% Income B,..okdown ('21) Median Income I n~.2031 i llZtRB I Sl '•~99--0 I i1?1;m 599,854 $84,989 v1, North County 20% (23%) 22% (12%) 15% (25%) (23") 21% 58" (15%) Av.,.oge Income C $157,77~ i 1m;ocu L i155,8llJ !lil,WI S130,684 Sl 13,225 Undo< $SOK 18% 30% 18" 29" 19" 34% 33" 20% 12% 25% 30% S50-S75K 6% 11% 7" 9" 7" 13% 12% 6% .,. 9% 10% $75-SlOOK { 11% { 18% { 12% ~{ 15% { 11% { 16% { 16% { 11% ~{ 1~ { 13% { 15% S 100-S 150K 11% ~ ,.,. ~ 2: "" El ~~ 13% ~ 13% ~ 1: 11% 12% S 150-S200K ~ 21% 19" 21% ~ 2: 19" 16% ~ 20% ~ 20% Oved200K 15% 10% 10% 11% 15% 10% 14% 12% 12% 11% Net Worlh Breakdown ("21) Median Net Worth I ·~ lffl,15:J( c::::::w,-m c:::: Jwf§) 5252,331 $144,778 vs. North County 84% (51%) 82" (22") 105% (49l<.) (42%) 60% 240% 100% 57" Average Net Worth [ $2,_IO~nl) C ·n:.mJ!!j P-161:9021 I s,.w.m S 1,547,775 Sl,109,413 Under SSOK 17" 34% 18" 28" 16% 35% 34% 20% 13" 15% 33" S50-S250K 23" 29" 23" 26% 21% 27" 26% 22% 16% 25% 27" S250-S500K 11% 13" 10% 13" 12% 13% 12% 10% 9" 12% llll S500-$1M 16% 11% 12" 14% 17" 11% 12% 14% 15% 14% 11% ;::; SlM-51.SM 9" 4% 8" 6% 9" 5% 5% 8" 10% 7" 5% (1) Sl.5M-S2M 6% 2% 7" 3" 6% 2% 3% 6% 8" '" 3" 3 Qv.,-S2M 19" 6% 21% 10% 19" 7% 9" 19" 29" 13" 9% :ti: Sovrc.: ESRI; US Ceruvs (.Am.ricon Foctfind9f) N .,, Q) O'Q (1) -..J -..J 0 -I-' -..J OJ 21690.00 DemoDemond, Demo 1c;1yJ THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-3 0 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SUMMARY n r CARLSBAD f--' ,-..J 2011 THROUGH 2026 N 0 N N I Corlsiiia I l0Year I Carlsbad I 5 Year fl Summa~ Geography 2011 2021 fl 2021 2026 fl '11-'21 '1 l -'26 General Information Population 102,342 112,930 +10.3% 112,930 115,970 +2.7% + 10.3% + 13.3% Net new population 10,588 3,040 10,588 13,628 Households 39,964 44,107 +10.4% 44,107 45,188 +2.5% + 10.4% + 13.1% Net new households 4,143 1,081 4,143 5,224 Household Size 2.56 2.56 -0.0% 2.56 2.57 +0.2% -0.0% +0.2% Age Breakdown -Population Median Age (Pop) 40.0 42.1 +2.1 42.1 42.5 +0.4 +5.3% +6.3% Under 20 26% 24% -1 .8% 24% 23% -1.1% -6.9% -11.3% 20-24 5% 5% -0.1 % 5% 5% -0.4% -2.8% -10.9% -25-34 12% 12% +0.0% 12% 13% +0.9% +0.2% +8.2% 35-44 16% 13% -2.3% 13% 14% +0.1% -14.8% -14.1% 45-54 16% 13% -3.0% 13% 13% -0.7% -18.4% -22.7% --55-64 12% 14% +2.1% 14% 13% -1.1 % + 17.4% +8.3% 65-74 7% 11% +3.9% 11% 11% +0.7% +59.1% +69.5% 75+ 7% 8% +1.2% 8% 10% +l.6% + 17.9% +41.2% m,come/Wealth Breakdown -Households 3 $120,203 +55.2% :tt Median Income $85,743 $120,203 +40.2% $133,079 + 10.7% +40.2% N $107,212 $157,775 +47.2% $157,775 $176,507 + 11.9% +47.2% +64.6% Average Income Under $SOK 31% 18% -13.1 % 18% 14% -4.1% -42.6% -56.1% ~ $50-$75K 14% 11 % -3.2% 11% 9% -1.1 % -23.1% -31.3% ~ $75-$ lOOK 13% 11 % -2.0% 11% 11 % -0.2% -14.8% -16.1 % 2;:l $100-$1 SOK 19% 21% +1.4% 21% 21 % +0.6% +7.0% + 10.4% Q, Over $ l 50K 23% 40% + 16.9% 40% 45% +4.8% +73.9% +94.9% f--' -..J St.urces: ESRI, US Census 21690.00 DemoDemand: DemosChange THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 (") ,. ...... ,-..J N 0 N N ;::;: (l) 3 =1:1: N -0 Q) OQ (l) -..J I.O 0 -...... -..J w Carlsbad A. Renter Incomes Income Tranches Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+ Total Renters: 8. % of Income S.e_ent on Rent $75,000+ Incomes Less than 20% 20%to 29% 30%+ 8,000 7,000 6,000 ~ 5,000 c ~ 4,000 0 ;§ 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 --- - --- - - - Less than $50,000 Source: American Factfinder 21690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRenters 2014 Renters -- 7,122 2,599 2,021 2,792 1,365 15,899 2014 Renters 2,229 2,749 1,057 6,035 ~ EXHIBIT 1-3 CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP CARLSBAD 2014TO2019 2019 5 Year Change Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change 45% 4,634 30% -2,488 -35% 16% 2,686 17% 87 3% 13% 1,970 13% -51 -3% 18% 3,021 20% 229 8% 9% 3,075 20% 1,710 125% 100% 15,386 100% -51 3 -3% 2019 5 Year Cha"nge Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change 37% 3,324 42% 1,095 49% 46% 3,502 44% 753 27% 18% 1,107 14% 50 5% 100% 7,933 100% 1,898 31 % ~ ~ .... -.... $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 n $150,000+ -- □2014 02019 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,.... ..... ,-..J N 0 N N ;::;: (I) 3 # N '"'C Q) OQ (I) 00 0 0 -..... -..J w Oceanside A. Renter Incomes Income Tranches Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+ Total Renters: B. % of Income S.e_ent on Rent $75,000+ Incomes Less than 20% 20%to 29% 30%+ 16,000 14,000 I 12,000 ----, I E 10,000 -l 2 C Q) 8,000 -l a.:: I E i2 6,000 -l I 4,000 -------i I 2,000 -------i 0 I- I- L- I- I- I Less than $50,000 Source: American Factfinder 21690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRenters OS 2014 Renters --- 14,209 5,619 2,879 2,354 767 25,828 2014 EXHIBIT 1-3 CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP OCEANSIDE 2014TO2019 2019 5 Year Change Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change 55% 11 ,750 45% -2,459 -17% 22% 5,130 20% -489 -9% 11% 3,847 15% 968 34% 9% 3,662 14% 1,308 56% 3% 1,716 7% 949 124% 100% 26,105 100% 277 1% 2019 5 Year Change Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change 2,182 37% 3,231 35% 1,049 48% 2,739 47% 4,236 46% 1,497 55% 964 16% 1,663 18% 699 73% 5,885 100% 9,130 100% 3,245 55% ,-----,----- I----~ I-n n $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 r-i n $150,000+ □2014 0 2019 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 r, ~ I-' -...J HB!f_l Statistics cijsbod "Mventory (Rooms) Occupancy ADR Son Diego Inventory (Rooms) Occupancy ADR San Diego County Inventory (Rooms) Occupancy ADR Lodging Demographics 111 Leisure Commerical/Corporate Group Visitor Demographics .l2l Median Age Median Income Groups with Children Average Length of Stoy Avg Exp per Person/Day Visitor Origin (1) O range County Riverside-San Bernardino SF-Oakland-Son Jose Los Angeles-Long Beach Pl;qr,nix-Meso L~Vegos P~ose of Trip (1) Pl80sure/vacotion Friends/Family Business M~ings OQ (I) 00 I-' 0 -I-' ;t;% 3%. (1) Corl.bod Touri,m Repo,1 . 2018 21690.00 City Demo: Tourism 2006 39,057 68% $165 405,374 75% $139 646,866 73% $131 50-55% 30-35% 10-20% 31 Years $80,200 53% 3.6 nights $328 12.7% 10.0% 8.7% 8.5% 6.7% 3.0% i60% 60% 35% 3% 2% 2007 39,646 70% $177 407,861 74% $146 650,909 73% $139 2008 44,975 65% $167 420,377 72% $1 49 670,338 70% $142 S200 $175 Sl50 Sl15 SlOO $75 $50 $25 so - EXHIBIT 1-4A CllY DEMO · TOURISM CARLSBAD 2022 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 45,954 45,927 45,856 44,933 48,290 49,042 52,122 53,074 53,083 60% 62% 63% 65% 66% 71% 72% 73% 75% $147 $137 $139 $142 $152 $158 $164 $166 $172 437,988 442,660 441,360 440,127 441,340 442,429 443,575 453,298 460,407 65% 69% 71 % 74% 74% 77% 78% 79% 78% $131 $128 $132 $138 $140 $147 $157 $161 $166 691,417 698,555 697,613 697,193 703,342 711,764 717,725 729,389 739,279 63% 66% 69% 71% 72% 75% 76% 77% 77% $124 $121 $125 $130 $133 $139 $148 $152 $157 ADR and ADR Change .. n n I I nn . ~ ~ ~fb. rt_ ~ -- ' ~ !Ill~ ' {.c.::., ~ ~ l ' I F ; . I , ·' 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 -CorfsbodAC>i: -Son Dt.go A.DR --. Son 0.-vo County AOR --Corlsbod AOR Gr Carlsbad and San Diego Visition 4.000.000 3,800,000 3,600,000 J.•00.000 3,200,000 3,000.000 2.800,000 I 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Averages 2018 2019 2020 2021 5 Yr 10 Yr 56,003 57,471 58,709 60,708 57,195 53,344 74% 72% 47% 58% 65% 67% $1 78 $179 $128 $182 $168 $162 462,488 469,070 470,386 469,653 466,401 455,277 80% 78% 45% 59% 68% 72% $172 $172 $128 $162 $160 $154 747,192 762,291 770,565 775,056 758,877 735,380 78% 77% 48% 61% 68% 71 % $163 $163 $121 $155 $152 $146 I rr n JL ~i nn/ 1r ~y 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% O'lb .10'1(, -20'1(, .JO'l(, -40o/, ~ I -SO% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ---SOAORGr --S0County.4DRGR 40% JO'I(, 20% 10% O'lb I -10% I -20o/, -30% -•O'lb 2011 2013 2015 -Totol VMor, lo COl'hb-cd --Gu,wt+. VISlto" fCorld>odt --Gn;-Mil, Vittfon {SOI THE CONCORD GROUP 57 DRAFT 0 n ...... f-,> ,-..J GRP by Industry 0 N . N • 2020 Gross Rcgion31 Product M.anut.tc.tur,nc Pro~suon.a1. ~ci~nnrac, ~nd lrchnu:~I 51!1'YJces \1\l'hot~,,d-Tt..td~ F'"iNnc.c-and "'°sunncc- ~ove,-nmenl fi,-l,;111 l•.•d'" lntnf'r't'lat1on A(:c,c,mmo~t1or .a.1nd rQOQ Servtc,e,- 11~.ilth Coil"e ard So.:1.al .Assisunc.e AITnlnlao.11.lth:,.. .:tn,I or,..•r,po,1 .•n(l W~1,1~ M ~:n,ie,-n~11 ;u~1 R£·fn(:d·,nlon C.E-rYke!t Man,1,;cl'N!"nt of C:ornparle~ a"ll't rnt(',ntlv" -- Cor-stn.Jctlon k.iP-tl £ ',,l.JtP ;tn(J kl"nl31 ant.I le..t"ilfl-1!: -----1Jt11f1(><;, - f"'l{hrr 4ic-rv'c~~ (•xcf"pt' Pu~llr A.c1mlnl~tra"1nn) - TtJn~po1t.Jtfo-, ~nd W.;uehous,n.: - A•t~. E'it~tTllnm.>01. i<"d Reut:! .. tlOf'I - ["dut:a-\nn:i11 Servtces • Ai:)h::1,1Hun!'. kJ1~:.uy. fhhuc ,11nu Hunttns: I >0000 Industry size by employment • Industry Job,-;; ;:::; (I) M mo·actunr·r. f)fule~-...,,u,I. ~lt>ontN.. arwJ r,-ctwJc;.111 .._L",vk~.__ ArcommQd . .UI0'1 :trd f'>Ori St-lVif ..... Re~llTr~ H r---.,llh (:,.1,e ,"t'l(j !-OCl.tl A .. ,.hl-tnu: -:..overnm.e.nt 1( OthC-f "tN'\llce,, (i.'Wf.>p! r1ul)lk. l\din11·l-'io.l12t1.001 m fnittf·;,._vc_-.a.ttd !!-U~ l and W.;n,:,o f',,,,4,;;n.i,q-.•nent ~rd R.-n,t:'(U.lhOn -.;~-vu.~ N -0 QJ (JQ (I) 00 N 0 ..... f-,> -..J w Whol«s. .. dc f1Ke Connruc:rlGn W.1fl~tl.'mttnl OT t'.'o, 1p.)t1h"'-..tn<I f n(('t{)rl•.\•S. I •"·"'"<"" .,i,nd ln1,l1r~n(,t, T1.tn:.oorut1on ,o1•1<1 \V.,n.•hu~h Ji: Art!.. Cnten.;Jnment. .iln:I RK~t1on Re.t ( \,\ate .,.nd Hcntal .ilttd LL"~~h g (d11r.11nt\n:11 S#n,lf"f''!; lnforn-..tkr, lJN1ti,-, A1r1cul:ure. Forestry, ri,t•nw ~n-d H1.nttr I' Source: City of Carlsbad Economic Update 21690.00 City Demo: Industries I r .... N;arional AverJr.e- .. I EXHIBIT 1-48 CITY DEMO -INDUSTRY COMPOSITIO N CARLSBAD 2022 '4000ft 58 I. GRP • The city of Carlsbad generates the bulk of its gross regional product (GRP) from Monufoctoring • Professional, scientific and technical services represent a large portion of the city's GRP -These sectors include: a. Tech b. Life Sciences c. Other innovation industries -Anticipated growth within these sectors due to general resilience to recessions • Accommodation and Food services ore a major component of the economy due to the large presence of tourism and hospitality -Legolond creates a large influx of tourism a nd visitors II. Industry Share vs. US Share Monufoctoring is Carlsbad's largest industry -Producing over 14,000 jobs -The number of jobs significantly exceeds the notional overage • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services represents the second largest gap as compared to the notional overage -This sector is only the 2nd largest producer of jobs for the Carlsbad economy Accomodotion and Food services is the 3rd largest -Considering the presence of Legolond, data suggests there is a gap to be filled in this sector Government employement represents the largest gap between Carlsbad's economy and the notional overage • Despite the tourism associated with Carlsbad, retail trade logs behind notional overage THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EXHIBIT l-4C LARGEST EMPLOYERS CARLSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Company Industry Park Hyatt Aviara Tourism Viasat, Inc. Communications Thermo Fisher Scientific Biotechnology Gemological Institute of America City of Carlsbad Government GenMark Dx Biotechnology Nordson Corporation Manufacturing Callaway Golf Retail lonis Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology LEGOLAND California Tourism OptumRx Biotechnology Genoptix Biotechnology Omni La Costa Resort & Spa Tourism Great Call/ Jitterbug Communications Costco Reta il Continuing Life Communities Medical Zimmer Dental Biotechnology SGN Nutrition Retail T aylorMade -Adidas Retail Carlsbad Unified School District Government Total Jobs Number HQ 3,980 2,563 HQ 2,400 800 HQ 680 HQ 662 600 590 586 400 400 HQ 400 HQ 365 HQ 200 150 100 90 HQ 40 HQ 15,006 Source: Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, San Diego Business Journal, Union Tribune, various sites. Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 83 of 173 59 DRAFT 0 n ..... ..., ~-..J N 0 N N LEGEND Color = Yea r Built Purple = Pre-1970 = 1970-1980 = 1980 -1990 Yellow = 1990 -2000 = 2000-2010 0 = After 2010 EXHIBIT l-4D DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS -MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES .. . 0 0 ~•~o i • •. 0 •~~loe C) .} .. ,. ~ . . ~0 -~-t · 0 • 0 0 • AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 0 'I \'-,~n \!-'• .• "-~. • •o l o . 0 • .!9QOO . ~.{) Ce) I Number of Units I ~-0 0 1!1, 0 0 0 0 ;> ;:; (I) 3 :it N -0 Qj OQ (I) 00 .i:,. 0 -+, ..., -..J w • Under 20 • 21 -40 • 41-80 • 81 -120 • 121-170 -171-250 -251-390 .Over390 Source: ESRI, Costar 21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeotMap I 0 .. c9 ?t l ·o .,__l 0 0 • 0 0 ., rt ~ ••• \0 ' .• A>-..~~ ,o 60 0 ,10 0 . • ,.. _,_ 0 Oo g ~ o•; JJ.'lt.<U~ ~,~- ~ • ~ ''-., 0 I O 0.5 l 2 Mae$ I I I I I I I I I I t,.,1-&!t(st! G.lml'I. \(jOr,bfl~f!Nt~~~ .rwr "-~ot; IK,Ot tallll'IWtllt, THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,-+ ..... ~-..J N 0 N N •• EXHIBIT 1-4D DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS -OFFICE DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES 0 • • l o ,. 0 • AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 \ • •c, I' • • .. -Q • -•. . ½\ ••• ~--'o@ ,. ~ ;:; (I) 3 :ii: N " Q) OQ (I) 00 u, 0 -..... -..J w LEGEND Color = Yeor Built Purple = Pre-1970 = 1970 -1980 = 1980 -1990 Yellow = 1990 -2000 = 2000 -2010 ~ • Under 10,000 • 10,000 -22,000 • 22,000-40,000 • 40,000 -70,000 • 70,000-115,000 -115,000-180,000 -180,000 -450,000 • Over 450,000 Source: ESRI, Costar l,e~, 21690.00 Development Mops: DevelopmentHeatMap '· '~ . -• ~..00... .. ••· '1°•,t -.°Q -~l • • 0 0 • "'A 0 0 . • cP .a l 0 r'~ ~ • o I ·/I'· ~• ~~S,~idot'~.-f ~~ ~'•;,. • 0. . \'. O 0 : 0 r: 1- 0 ~ ,Jo 0. • • •o • 0 ~• • • e o .. .0 . ~ \ !'& • • • ' "'1 t :-' ,:ve • •• 0 ~ • • 0 • I O 0.5 l 2 Maes I L 1,,1 11 1 11 r:.-.. co.rf!"...-... •~•l'\-C._u ___ ... ....,_ THE CONCORD GROUP 61 DRAFT 0 n r-T I-"" :,J N 0 N N ;::;: ct> 3 # N ,::, QJ O'Q ct> 00 O'l 0 -I-"" -...J w LEGEND Color = Yeor Built Purple = Pre-1970 = 1970-1980 = 1980-1990 Yellow = 1990 -2000 = 2000 -2010 RBA • Under 6,000 • 6,000 -15,000 • 15,000 -30,000 • 30,000 -50,000 • 50,000 -80,000 -80,000-130,000 -130,000 -240,000 • Over 240000 Souce: ESRI, Cos1or un 21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMap EXHIBIT 1-4D DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS -RETAIL DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 I. -L.._J ~ ~ • -~-<o 0 '® 0 ~ 0 .0 0 o• • 0 • • ·o 0 "9, '(_, • .. ~o• \ .. 12 (9 .. ~Q· .0 • 0 0 J ~ ' Oo f)~ . ~8°' ?o ~ ~ 1i ~~ "~ . "9 0 0 \e a, \~ I e ~ \· \ r:o, co. 0 0 0 " 0 - 2 Miles ~ e ,_ e Ctn HE.RC -.n ICI lt~OISw..,_ THE CONCORD GROUP 62 I- LL <( 0::: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 V) ·-~ -C C <( >--.... ·-C ::> (") t: co 0 a. a. 0 Cl) u ·-~ 0 Item #2 Page 87 of 173 DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 O FFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -OVERALL SELECT SUBMARKETS 200B THROUGH 2021 0 Annual ' Ouorterlr: i Ave~es n I ;" Market Factor jSFj 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ! 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql I 5-Yr 10-Yr ..... ,:-.J Inventory SF (RSA, 000, 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 386 386 391 391 391 404 404 : 404 404 404 404 : 396 395 N Net Deliveries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 0 5 0 0 13 0 I 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 Net Absorpt;on 6 -5 6 4 -2 -4 -9 -17 9 12 6 2 -9 15 I --3 3 3 I 5 0 N T otol Vacancy Rate 3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1%: 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4%: 3.3% 4.2% N Vocont SF 15 20 14 11 12 16 25 29 20 13 7 5 28 13 I 18 15 13 10 I 13 17 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.33 S20.67 S20.56 $20.68 S22.88 $21.72 $25.49 $26.93 S30.35 $31.66 $31.78 S31.63 $30.53 S32.45 : $33.17 $33.94 $32.45 $33.69 : $31.61 $28.54 %Change -8.7% -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% ' 2.3% -4.4% 3.8% , 1.3% 4.6% aw, c.lllioil, -Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs 160 160 160 160 -160-160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 i 160 160 160 160 i 160 160 Net Deliveries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o l 0 0 0 I 0 0 Net Absorption -8 .10 : I 4 6 1 11 -5 2 11 1 -1 2 0 3 -6 0 4 I -1 1 T otol Vacancy Rote 21.2% 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% I 2.2% 6.1% 6.3% 3.5% I 2.4% 4.6% Vocont SF 34 30 24 23 12 17 16 5 4 4 2 3 0 10 : 4 10 10 6 : 4 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF} $35.43 $34.74 $34.05 $28.35 $18.49 $18.77 $25.67 $26.89 $26.10 S25.41 $35.33 $45.93 $34.58 $32.48 I $41.81 $32.33 $32.48 $32.48 I $34.75 $28.97 %Change 46.5% -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34.8% 1.5% 36.B% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1% ! -22.7% 0.5% 0.0% I 4.5% 1.4% Sovth S.ach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 Net Oelr.teries 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 0 0 Net Absorption -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 : 0 -3 1 I 2 2 T otol Vacancy Rate 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% I 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% l 9.9% 10.1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 I 1 1 4 3 I 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $41.93 $40.32 : S41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 : $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.8% I 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% t 4.5% I ~ I I Inventory Sf (RSA, OOOs 3,347 3,347 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 : 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 : 3,466 3,446 Net Deliveries 46 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 10 5 Net Absorption 66 3 -99 154 34 127 45 -72 -58 -65 -49 87 129 -7 I -31 3 73 I 19 17 Total Vacancy Rate 21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21.7% 24.2% 21.7% 18.0% 18.2%: 17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1%: 20.8% 19.6% Vacant SF 733 730 908 754 720 593 548 620 679 744 841 754 626 633 I 605 636 633 560 I 719 676 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.84 S28.64 $25.54 $25.67 $25.53 $26.21 $27.39 $28.61 $29.68 $29.33 $30.08 $31.55 $31.91 $32.62 I $32.20 $32.60 $32.62 $32.89 I $31.10 $29.29 %Change -2.5% -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.2% l 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% ! 1.9% 2.4% 100 Net Deliveries 80 -c-~ 60 1 40 ;::::;: ~ (l) 0 20 3 , CT V) 0 :t:1: N -20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village "'C 200 Net AbsOf'ption Ill (TQ 150 (l) -c-100 00 ~ 00 l 50 0 0 -., ..... l; -50 , --.J CT w V) -100 -150 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village "No office property in Avioro submarkets 21091.00 Office Trends -Sum: Performance (Sub) P-1 ol 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE. OVERALL SELECT SUBMARKETS 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual QuorM!fr: AvemBa Market Factor ~fl 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 QJ 2021 Q4 '2022 Ql i ~~ lt~IB, Inventory SF IRBA. 000.) 30,312 31,265 31,516 31,654 31,710 31,904 31,949 32,307 32,590 32,685 32,980 33,315 33,891 33,929 33,884 33,944 33,929 33,929 33,360 32,726 NetOtilrveriet 28,706 953 252 138 S6 195 .. 358 284 95 295 335 575 38 60 -15 0 268 227 N.t Ab1orptiGn 23,933 81 1,015 591 365 552 327 6'1 -38 -210 557 <98 75 271 189 190 -102 238 30< Totol Voconcy Rote 16011 18.3" 15 7" 1'.~ 13.2% 12.0% 11.1" 101'4 11 011 119" 11.0% 104" 11,7% 11.0% 12.0% 1l 6" 11.0% 11.3" 11"' 11 "' Vocon1 Sf 4,850 5,721 4,948 4,495 4,186 3,829 3,546 3,263 3,585 3,890 3,628 3,465 3,965 3,732 <,066 3,938 3,732 3,834 3,736 3,709 G,on Rttnt Dir.ct ($/SF) $33.47 $29.52 $28.1-4 $27.71 $27.71 $27,76 $28.91 $30.45 $33.10 $33.99 $34.97 $34.97 $3558 S37.4A $36.55 $3662 $37.44 $37 89 $35.39 $31-49 "Chong• -6.5% -11.8% -4.7" -1.5" 0.0% 0.2% "·'" 5.3'1 8.7" 2.7" 2.9% 0.011 1.7" s"' 0.2!1 2.2!1 I 2% 2,5,. 3.1% l•!m!-!! 7.681 I lrwentory SF IRSA. 000.) 6,-46.t 6,623 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,940 7,'172 7,207 7,436 7,668 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7.~5 7,189 N.tO.tivwi .. 119 159 80 0 0 0 0 237 232 36 228 232 13 0 0 0 0 102 98 NM Absorptio,1 28 96 7 235 127 181 1'7 79 .2() 58 328 3'7 42 ,23 -15 15 77 150 127 Total Vacancy Rote 23 1" 23.5" 2.t.3" 208" 18.9" 16.2" U.0% 15.8% 18.8" 18 . .t" 16.5" 1-4.5" 14.1" 1.t.4" 1.t . .t" 1.t,6" U .4% 13.4" 15 6" 16 2% Vacant SF 1,493 1,556 1,629 1,394 1,267 1,086 938 1,096 1,348 1,326 1,227 1,112 1,083 1,106 l, 106 1,1'21 1,106 1,029 1,171 1,159 Gron RW!f Oir«:f 1$/SFI $30.20 $27.78 $25.39 $25.28 $24.37 $25.13 $27.54 $28.52 $29 33 $29.50 S30.18 S31.17 S32.32 S32.65 $32 41 $32 62 S32.65 $32.69 $31.16 $29.07 "Chong• -2 8" -8.0% -86" ..o.," -3.6" 3.1" 9.6% 3.6% 2.8" 0.6" 2.3% 3.3" 3.7" '·°" 0.6% 0.1" 0 '" 2.2!1 26" lnv«ttory SF (RM. OOOs.l 1,522 1,5.t7 1,684 1,695 1,695 1,752 1,768 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,967 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,855 1,805 NetO.!Nen .. 255 26 137 11 0 57 16 14 0 0 0 0 185 -6 0 0 0 36 27 N<II Absorption 128 .u 162 21 '7 62 -8 53 ,, 3< 7 5 168 '7 27 -6 -20 52 <5 Totol Voconcy Rot• 18.0% 20.9" 17 7% 17.0% IA.2" 13.5% 14.7" 12.4% 10.5" 8.6% 8.2% 7.,. 8.011 5.3% 6.4" 5.011 5.3% 6"' 7 6" 10.3% Yocom Sf 27' 323 298 288 w 237 260 221 187 153 1A6 1<1 157 10, 125 98 10, 12< 1,0 185 Gron R-,t Oired f$/SFJ $3043 S26.97 $26.33 S23.2A $2A 42 $20.94 S21 60 $22.89 S23.A5 $23.71 $24.42 $25.12 $26.02 $27.20 $17.09 S26.94 $27.20 $26.77 $25.29 $23.98 "Chong• 0.7" -11 '" -2'" -11.7" 5.19' -14.3% 3.2% 60% 2.4" 1.1" 3.0% 2.9" 3.6" 4.5" ..0.6" 1.0% -1.6" 3.011 1.6" --lnv«-1tory SF (RSA, 000.1 l,.t87 l,5A5 1,552 1,551 1,621 1,621 1,621 1,651 1,651 1,711 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,723 1,678 N.tO.iiv.-iN 199 57 7 -1 70 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 18 N.t Ab,orptio,1 <8 -18 ,o 19 69 .. 53 58 ,2 '7 5 .'5 .9 9 -16 " 8 27 Total Voconcy Rote 15.3" 19.6" 17.4" 16 1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.-A% 10.8" 7.3% 8.1% 6.2% S.9" 8.5% 9011 8.6" 8.1"' 9.011 8"' 7.5" 9.9" Vacant Sf 228 303 270 250 251 250 201 178 121 139 107 102 1<7 155 1'8 1'0 155 1'2 130 165 Gro,s RIW'lf Oitld ($/SF) S302A $27.82 $28.38 S27.21 S26.0.t $25.35 $26.16 S26.-A6 S27.81 $26.21 $27.41 $27.96 S28.81 $26.49 $29.78 S30.19 S26,A9 S27 48 S27.38 $2687 "Change "" -8.°" 2.0% ·'·"' -4.39' -2.6" 3.2% I.I" 5.1" .s.~ 4.6" 2.0!1 3.0% -8.1'5 '-'" -123" 3.7" ·'°" -03" -Inventory SF (RSA. 000.J 1,633 1,633 1,636 1,636 1,6A3 1,6-43 1,677 1,677 1,680 1,68.t 1,68.t 1,708 1,708 1,768 1,708 1,768 1,768 1,768 1,711 1,687 N.tOe,IN.;.. 27 0 3 0 7 0 3< 0 ' ' 0 2' -1 60 60 0 0 17 13 N.i Ab,orption .. , 13 '3 28 12 18 12 22 27 -31 10 33 .,2 6< 48 " .5 7 12 T otol Vacancy Rote 10.3% 9.5" 7.011 5.3" 5.011 3.9" 5.1% 3.8" 2.A" '·-"' 3.9" 3.3% 5.7" 5.3" 56" 6.1" 53% 5.6" 4.5!1t <.3'1 Vacant Sf 168 155 115 87 82 64 86 6< ,o 76 66 S6 97 94 96 108 94 99 78 72 GroN Re,nt Oirlld (S/SFI S32.9A $29.81 $3087 $31 70 $32.26 $32.-45 $32.43 $35.53 $36.99 $38.68 $38.13 SA0 . .t5 $A2.39 S42.63 S.t2.74 $.ti 92 $42.63 S.t2.29 SA0.46 S37.19 "Chonv• -8.07' .9_5,. 3.6" 2.7" '-~ 0.6" -0.1% 9.6% ,U9' 4.6,. -1.49' 6.1'6, '·°" 0.6,. -1.9% 1.7" -<>-~ 2.9" 3 °" -Inventory SF IR8A.. 000.) 1,683 1,7.t6 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 l,755 1,761 1,761 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,765 NeitO.!iverift 61 63 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 N.t Absorption .71 1 19 21 ·" -56 .. 109 -23 1 51 .73 ·" 0 -12 .. 0 -12 0 Totol Vacancy Roi• 15.°" 18.0'Mi 17.~ 16.1" 16 9" 20.1" 17.6" 11.7% 13.0% 13.5" 10.6" 1-4.7" 17.0% 17.0% 16.1" 16.8" 17.0% 17.0% 1.t.6% 15.2% Vocont SF 252 31' 30< 282 297 353 309 206 229 239 188 261 301 301 285 298 301 301 258 268 Gron RIW'lf 0.rld jS/Sf) $27.68 $25.90 $25.56 $23.83 $23.51 $22.22 $21.56 S21 . .t0 $21.72 $21 75 $20.32 S20.58 $26.26 $27.28 $26.97 S28.10 S27.28 $27.21 S23.24 $22.66 "Chong• 15.99(, -6 . .t9' .J.3" -6.~ -1.3" -5.5" -3.°" -0.7% 1.59' 0.lll -6.69' 1.3" 27.6" 3.9" '·"" -2.9% -0.3" 4.7" 1.49' 500 Net AblOrprion ,oo 'C' ,[ 300 ._ l • ! 200 --8 .f 100 -100 -200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vi.to Enan!lo, SonMoa~ ■Oc.anside ■Cortsbad 700 Ne1Delli,,..,.._ 600 'C' l l 500 ! 8 .f ,oo 300 200 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201-4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 "Visto Encinitas ■Son Marcos •Oc.anlide ■Carllbod 'No office property in Av;oro ,ubmorklllt Sovn:e:CoSIDr Oct. 17, 2022 Ite m #2 Page 89 of 173 21091.00 Offic• l r«-1d1 • Sum: P...-formonc• (City) Poge'2of5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBITV-2 0 n ~ 1--1 ,-..J N 0 N N ;:::; (l) 3 :ti: N -0 Q) OQ (l) \D 0 0 ....... 1--1 -..J w OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS OVERALL 2008 THROUGH 2021 Market Factor Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quartert.i::. Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr 2021 Q2~2021 Q42022 Ql ------North County ' I Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.5 Y/Y % Change $29.5 $28. l S27 .7 $27 .7 $27 .8 $28.9 $30.5 $33.1 $34.0 $35.0 $35.0 $35.6 $37.4 $36.6 $36.6 $37.4 $37.9 I -11.8% -4.7% -1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 4.1% 5.3% 8.7% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 5.2% 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% I Carlsbad I I Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf] $30.2 $27.8 $25.4 S25.3 $24.4 $25.1 $27.5 $28.5 $29.3 $29.5 $30.2 $31.2 $32.3 $32.7 I $32.4 $32.6 $32.7 $32.7 I Y/Y%Change -8.0% -8.6% -0.4% -3.6% 3.1% 9.6% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 2.3% 3.3% 3.7% 1.0% ! 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% ! Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.4 $27.0 $26.3 $23.2 $24.4 $20.9 $21.6 $22.9 $23.5 $23.7 $24.4 $25. l $26.0 $27.2 : $27. l $26.9 $27.2 $26.8 Y/Y%Change -11.4% -2.4% -11.7% 5.1% -14.3% 3.2% 6.0% 2.4% 1.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% 1 -0.6% 1.0% -1.6% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.2 $27.8 $28.4 $27.2 $26.0 $25.4 S26.2 $26.5 $27.8 $26.2 $27.4 $28.0 $28.8 $26.5 : $29.8 $30.2 $26.5 $27.5 Y/Y % Change -8.0% 2.0% -4.1% -4.3% -2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 5.1% -5.8% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% -8.1% r 1.4% -12.3% 3.7% ~ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32. 9 Y/Y % Change Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.7 Y/Y% Change Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.3 Y/Y% Change .Q!d,;~ $29.8 $30.9 $31.7 $32.3 $32.5 $32.4 $35.5 $37.0 $38.7 $38.1 $40.5 $42.4 $42.6 -9.5% 3.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% -0.1% 9.6% 4.1% 4.6% -1.4% 6.1% 4.8% 0.6% $25.9 $25.6 $23.8 $23.5 $22.2 $21.6 $21.4 $21.7 $21.8 $20.3 $20.6 $26.3 $27.3 -6.4% -1.3% -6.8% -1.3% -5.5% -3.0% -0.7% 1.5% 0.1% -6.6% 1.3% 27.6% 3.9% $20.7 $20.6 $20.7 $22.9 $21.7 $25.5 $26.9 $30.4 $31.7 $31.8 $31.6 $30.5 $32.5 -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% $42.7 $27.0 $33.2 $41.9 $42.6 $42.3 -1.9% 1.7% -0.8% $28.1 $27.3 $27.2 4.2% -2.9% -0.3% W~ ffl5 W.7 2~ ~a 3ft GrossRentDirect(S/SF) $35.4 $34.7 $34.l $28.4 $18.5 $18.8 $25.7 S26.9 $26.1 $25.4 $35.3 $45.9 $34.6 $32.5: S41.8 $32.3 $32.5 $32.5 Y/Y %Change -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34.8% 1.5% 36.8% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1%, -22.7% 0.5% 0.0% South &acl, Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 Y/Y % Change 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $41.9 $40.3 : $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 -3.8% I 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.8 Y/Y% Change $28.6 525.5 $25.7 $25.5 $26.2 $27.4 $28.6 $29.7 $29.3 $30.1 $31.6 $31.9 $32.6 $32.2 $32.6 $32.6 $32.9 -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.2% $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $45 -c-$40 :g$35 -!::------- ~$30 ~ j $25 ci $20 il $15 ~ 2008 -North County 2012 -Carlsbad sso r--------------------- - Oceanside 2016 -Son Morcos -- -Encinitas 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% ----- 2020 Vista $35.4 $32.5 2.5% 6.2% $31.2 $29.l 2.2% 5.2% $25.3 $24.0 3.0% 3.2% $27.4 $26.9 -1.0% -0.5% $40.5 2.9% $23.2 4.7% $31.6 1.3% $37.2 6.1% $22.7 2.7% $28.5 9.4% $34.7 $29.0 4.5% 2.8% $41.1 $32.1 9.1% $31.1 $29.3 1.9% 4.9% 545 l _ _ _ _ Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) ~ $40 _ _ _ .,, .,, -', , _ ~ sJs -------~-_ _ ,,. ..,. ..._, -,_ =.I vi. .... -~ ----,,,,,. .... f::~t-----~----. -.--,..... ---_______ ..,.......-.:.:==:.-=-,~ ...... .:.:.._==----==-----~.;-;,;; ~ -----------,..::.:::_-_----:-:::-=---------=----------... ~ $20 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .... ___ -=-... ... I ~ , ____ _ ~ $152()()8 I I I 2012 _ -Village --Olde Carlsbad '"No ottice property in Avioro submorkets 2016 Sou1h 8eoch --Industrial Corridor 2020 Source: Costar 21091.00 Office Trends -Sum: Rents Page 3 of 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 0 n ,.... .... _-...J N 0 N N ;::;: ro 3 :ti: N OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Market Fodor ,w .. v, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ======= ------------------------------2019 2020 2021 North County Vacancy Y/Y% Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vacancy Y/Y % Change San Marcos Vacancy Y/Y % Change rtiidn"ilas Vacancy Y/Y% Change V-1$/a - Vacancy Y/Y% Change Village Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vacancy Y/Y % Change South Beach Vacancy Y/Y % Change Ca-nm Vacancy l " ~ ~ 8 ~ Y/Y % Change 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2""""' 2008 30.0% 16.0% 18.3% 15.7% 14.2% 13.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.1% 11.0% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 11.7% 11.0% 14.4% -14.2% -9.6% -7.0% -9.1% -7.5% -9.0% 8.9% 8.2% -7.6% -5.5% 12.5% -6.0% 23.1% 23.5% 24.3% 20.8% 18.9% 16.2% 14.0% 15.8% 18.8% 18.4% 16.5% 14.5% 14.1% 14.4% 1.7% 3.4% -14.4% -9.1% -14.3% -13.6% 12.9% 19.0% -2.1% -10.3% -12.1% -2.8% 2.1% 18.0% 20.9% 17.7% 17.0% 14.2% 13.5% 14.7% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2% 16.1% -15.3% -4.0% -16.5% -4.9% 8.9% -15.6% -15.3% -18.1% -4.7% 15.3% 19.6% 17.4% 16.1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.4% 10.8% 7.3% 8.1% 6.2% 28.1% -11.2% -7.5% -3.7% -0.6% -19.5% -12.9% -32.4% 11.0% -23.5% 7.9% -3.7% 8.0% 5.3% 1.3% -33.8% 5.9% 8.5% 9.0% 5.9% -4.8% 44.1% 10.3% 9.5% 7.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.4% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 5.3% -7.8% -26.3% -24.3% -5.7% -22.0% 30.8% -25.5% -36.8% 87.5% -13.3% -15.4% 72.7% -7.0% 15.0% 18.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.9% 20.1% 17.6% 11.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.6% 14.7% 17.0% 17.0% 20.0% -3.9% -6.9% 5.0% 18.9% -12.4% -33.5% 11.1% 3.8% -21.5% 38.7% 15.6% 0.0% 3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1% 34.2% -29.4% -25.0% 14.8% 29.0% 55.0% 21.0% -32.0% -35.3% -45.5% -22.2% 392.9% -55.1% 21.2% 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% -12.3% -18.8% -3.3% -46.6% 38.5% -10.2% -70.1% -24.1% 27.3% -46.4% 1.6% 0.0% 6. 7% -100.0% 6.3% 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% 1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -17.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7% -14.8% 37.8% -80.7% 21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21.7% 24.2% 21.7% 18.0% 18.2% -0.5% 21.6% -17.0% -4.5% -17.6% -7.5% 13.1% 9.4% 9.6% 11.5% -10.3% -17.1% 1.1% - - - 2012 -North County -Cotlsbod Historical Vacancy (%) Oceanside Historical Vacancy (%) -- 2016 -SonMocros - ~ OVERALL Quarterly Annual Average 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q 1 ~ ~ 12.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% -3.3% -5.2% 2.7% 0.0% -5.0% 14.4% 14.6% 14.4% 13.4% 15.6% 16.2% 1.4% -1.4% -6. 9% -5.2% -7.1% 6.4% 5.0% -21.9% 5.3% 6.3% j 7.6% 10.3% 6.0% 18.9% I -12.8% -20.8% 8.6% 8.1% 9.0% 8.2% 5.6% -5.8% 11. 1 % -8. 9% 6.1% 5.3% 8.9% -13.1% 5.6% 5.7% 16.1% 16.8% 17.0% 17.0% 4.3% 1.2% 0.0% 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4% -15.6% -18.4% -22.6% 2.2% 6.1% 177.3% 6.3% 3.5% 3.3% -44.4% 7.5% 9.9% 4.3% -11.0% 4.5% 17.2% 4.3% 0.0% 14.6% 15.2% 5.5% 1.1% 3.3% 4.2% -9.5% 2.8% 2.4% 4.6% 23.4% -15.5% 0.8% 0.0% 2.6% 1.8% , 9.9% 10.1% 0.0% 225.0% -30.8% I -25.5% -29.7% 17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1% -Encindos 5.2% -0.5% -1 1.5% . -- 2020 Vista 20.8% 19.6% -1.7% -3.7% ---. -- .,, QJ OQ ro I.O .... 25.0% l 20.0% --~-------------------~-------:::.-----------------------------------~:~---------------------~ --: : ~ : ; --~ "'= -=-=---":: --_-: ;_---::-::: :: -= '!c-e..~ -~-----:__--:__ -_-_ -_ --------0 -.... " 15.0% c "' 10.0% ~ -...J w C: 8 5.0% ---------------------------~ 0.0% 2008 --Village •No office property in Avioro submarkets 21091.00 Office Trends -Sum: Vacancy 2012 --Old Ca~,bod Page 4 ol 5 2016 S<x,th 8eoch ---,"lot... --... _____ ,_,. -..,.. -~-~ - 2020 --lndU$lriol Corridor Source: Costar THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n -I-' EXHIBITV-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual ~-...J Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ---------------------------------Nfib'ldttlfiM :3 Inventory (RBA, OOO's) 1,583 N Net Absorption Vacancy 32. 1 % Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.4 Y/Y% Change I Carlsbad -C/ciii_'-. Inventory (RBA, OOO's) 4,507 Net Absorption Vacancy 21.4% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.3 Y/Y % Change Carlsbad -Class C 1,583 3 31.9% $31.5 -2.8% 4,666 107 21.8% $26.0 -11.2% Inventory (RBA, OOO's) Net Absorption Vacancy 374 374 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y % Chonge Rent Gap Avs 8 Bvs C Avs C -16 4.9% 9.2% $26.1 $22.5 10.7% 12.1% 24.1 % -13.8% 21% 15% 40% 1,662 34 33.1% $29.5 -6.4% 4,666 -19 22.2% $23.8 -8.5% 374 -10 11.8% $23.3 3.3% 24% 2% 27% 1,662 105 26.8% $28.8 -2.4% 4,666 131 19.4% $23.9 0.3% 1,662 90 21.4% $27.9 -3.0% 4,666 19 19.0% $22.9 -4.1% 374 374 -2 18 12.3% 7.5% $22.2 $19.1 -4.6% -14. 2% 20% 8% 30% 22% 20% 47% 1,662 5 21.1% $29.4 5.4% 4,666 177 15.2% $23.4 2.0% 374 4 6.5% $20.1 5.2% 26% 16% 47% 1,662 8 20.6% $30.5 3.7% 4,666 140 12.2% $26.2 12.3% 374 -4 7.5% $22.7 13.2% 16% 16% 35% 1,839 35 26.3% $31.7 4.0% 4,743 58 12.4% $27.0 3.1% 358 -10 6.1% $24.4 7.4% 17% 11 % 30% 1,839 40 24.1% $31.6 -0.5% 4,975 -66 17.8% $28.5 5.4% 358 0 6.2% $26.9 10.5% 11% 6% 17% 1,839 66 20.5% $31.7 0.3% 5,011 -1 18.4% $28.7 0.8% 358 -4 7.2% $26.2 -2.7% 10% 10% 21% 2,067 289 15.3% $31.8 0.5% 5,011 30 17.8% $29.5 2.7% 358 8 5.1% $27.7 6.0% 8% 6% 15% 2,244 168 14.5% $32.7 2.9% 5,066 177 15.2% $30.3 2.6% 358 -3 5.9% $31.2 12.6% 8% -3% 5% Quarterly Annual Average 2020 2021 2021 Q2202l Q32021 Q42022 Ql 5-Yr 10-Yr 2,244 -56 17.0% $33.4 2.1% 5,080 113 13.2% $31.7 4.8% 2,244 18 16.2% $34.2 2.3% 5,080 -25 13.7% $32.0 1.0% 358 358 -15 -5 10.1% 11.5% $33.3 $29.7 6.5% -10.7% 5% -5% 1% 7% 8% 15% ------------------ 2,244 14.7% $33.7 5,080 14.4% $31.9 358 12.2% $29.6 6% 8% 14% 2,244 -29 16.0% $34.1 1.1% 5,080 20 14.0% $32.1 0.6% 358 -5 13.7% $28.2 -4.8% 6% 14% 21 % 2,244 -4 16.2% $34.2 0.4% 5,080 15 13.7% $32.0 -0.1% 358 8 11 .5% $29.7 5.3% 7% 8% 15% 2,244 -4 16.4% $34.1 -0.4% 5,080 66 12.4% $32.2 0.5% 358 8 9.2% $30.0 0.9% 6% 7% 14% 2,127 97 16.7% $32.8 1.6% 5,049 59 15.7% $30.4 2.4% 358 -4 8.0% $29.6 2.0% 1,930 66 19.7% $31.5 3.5% 4,896 62 15.5% $28.0 6.0% 363 -1 7.4% $26.1 6.0% 7.7% 13.1% 3.2% 8.5% 11.2% 23.2% $35 •ross Direct Rent ($/SA . -~ _ ~ ------======~------========------, -----------------------~ =-I ~ ~ $30 Carlsbad -Historical C: ..•• , __ , ~ ~ $25 0 i: $20 ~ -----=---~ -- ~ ~ $15 1-----~------,~-----~-----~-----~------,------~------r-----~------~-----~------::::':-::--------1 3 0 2008 ----2012 2016 2020 # N -Class A Class B 300 .---=====-=--=--=-~~---...._--------------------Carlsbad -Net Absorpfion(SF, OOO's) & Vacancy Rafe _ 250 " OJ c: 200 OQ 0 ro ·'E. 1 so I.O ~ Nj 100 Q,~ so ., -ClassC 35% 30% 25% ., 20% ~ ~ 15% § V 0 10% > ~z o w 50 100 ~---:~;;----~~---~;-;-------:=:-----::::::-::----=-:-------:-::-:-:---~~---~-----======~--~~---~=-=] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5% 0% -class A -class B -classC -Class A Vacancy 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class B Vacancy -Class C Vacancy 21091.00 Office Trends -Sum: Gap Page 5 of 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 fl ~ ~ § 3 " ~ ,, 'ii: ~ g, ~ ~ w EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quorterl_t 2021 Q2 2021 QJ 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Class A Avero.i.es 5-Yr 10-Yr -------Vllap, Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) Net Deliveries Net Absorption Total Voconcy Rote Vocont SF Gross Rent D;rect ($/SF) % Change ,Qt6,lpl_ Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) Net Deliveries Net Absorption T otol Vacancy Rate Vocont SF Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) % Change Sovths.ach -c-~ ;; ~ e g ,g i ;; ~ e g ,g Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) Net Deliveries Net Absorption T otol Vacancy Rate Vacant SF Gross Rent D;red ($/SF) %Change s;o,,;doc. -Inventory SF (RSA, 000s) Net Deliveries Net Absorption Total Vacancy Rote Vacant SF Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) %Change 1,178 0 71 26.8% 316 $32.78 -4.7% 1,178 1,257 0 80 -5 20 27.2% 30.2% 320 380 $32.60 $30.30 -0.5% -7.1% 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 0 0 0 0 0 69 47 -13 -6 -20 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 311 264 277 283 303 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 -24% -0-5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% 100 .-----------------------------Net Deliveries 80 60 40 20 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 I ~ 1,306 1,306 1,306 I 1,296 0 0 48 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 10 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 : -21 5 4 I 21 -I 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% I 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% I 21.3% 314 300 274 251 294 257 I 242 262 257 261 I 275 $31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 : $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 534.39 : $32.94 -1.1% 0-5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% I 1.4% .0_1% -0.1% I 1.7% 0+----:-:-:--::--+-----+--'--'---+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----1.-L_-+-----+-----+-----l 2008 2009 2010 South Beach 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ■ lndustrtal Corridor 2016 2017 2018 ■ Olde Carlsbad 2019 ■Village 2020 2021 100 ~------------------------NetAbsorption--------------------------------- 80 60 40 2~1 I I I I ' ! I I I I I J I I I I r:::J I 1 C n= I I I t :1 L_j .____,a i i c:::::J I 1 -20 -40 -60 J._ ____________________________________________________________ __, 2008 2009 2010 South Beach 2011 2012 2013 2014 ■ Industrial Corridor 2015 2016 2017 ■ Olde Carlsbad 2018 2019 ■Village 2020 2021 1,277 5 10 22.1% 282 $31.94 1.5% 21091.00 Office Trends . Closs A: Performance (Sub) Poge6~of 4 TI-lE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBITV-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS Closs A 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Morbt Factor ,s~ 2008 2009 , Q1.1c111e!:2: • Avaraaai 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q-4 2022 Ql I 5-'fr 10-Yr m1l:'!m1 9,509 9,59A 9,705 9,785 9,785 9,961 10,034 10,134 10,,37 10,61' 11,068 11,068 ! 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 ! 10,66• 10,259 lnv-,,to,y SF Ill.BA. OOOll 8,726 9,373 Net Oel111erOM 6'7 136 8• l 12 80 0 176 73 100 303 "' N•AbsQfption 482 518 Tolol VOCQney Rot. 19.~ 20.1" 15.8% Vocont SF 1,719 1,68A 1,502 Gron Rettl Dititd 1$/Sf) $38.82 $35.15 $34.33 "Change -9.S1' -2-~ hw11ntOI')' SF jR.BA,, OOOJ) 1,583 1,583 1,662 NeitOeliY«llll 0 0 80 Net Absorption 85 3 34 Total VOCOf'C}' R.o1e 32.1% 31.n 33 1% Yoe.ant Sf 508 505 550 Gross Reni Oired (5/Sf) 532.43 531.52 529.49 "Chango --'·"' -2.8" -6.4" hw.,..tory SF (R.BA. ooo.t II• 1" 171 Neil Del,ve,ie, 1" 0 57 Net AbsorpttOn 7 57 Total Voconq Rot• 6•.3" $8.6" 39.~ Vocont SF ,. 67 67 Orou R.eflt Direct fS/Sf) SJ• 78 532 10 532.13 "Cha~ 3 611 .,_,,. o.,,. ,,,._ hw-,ito,y SF (R.BA, OOOt.) 361 361 361 Net o.liv«iN 96 0 0 Net AbsorpttOn 10 -3 .9 TotolVoconcyRo1e 26"" 26.7" 29.1" Vocont Sf .. 96 105 Ofos1 Root Oired ($/Sf) $3,404 531.57 531 69 "Cho• -2-°" -7 . .,,. 0.A~ NO'! Delive,ies NetAb,.orptio,i Total Voconcy Rot• Voe.on! Sf Gron 11:.nt Dired (S/SF) "Chotl(N -lnv.nlOfy' Sf (RSA. ooo.J 55 55 55 Noto.lrlOl'iff 0 0 0 N• AbsorpttOn ·6 -7 7 Total Vacancy R.oi. 10.8" 23,0,. 11.1" Vocont SF 13 Orou Roni Dir.ct IS/Sf) $34 17 S34.17 S34.17 loCh~ 0.0,0 00,0 350 300 ! ,so 1 200 ! 8 ,K 150 100 so -50 .100 2008 2009 2010 Vista ,so ! 200 1 ! ISO 8 ,K 100 so 0 2008 2009 2010 Vista Sown:Co.Stor 21091.00 Offic• lr•nds • Clon A: Perlonmnco (City) Oct.17,2022 282 13 6" 1,305 $33.61 -2.1" 1,662 0 105 26.8" '46 S28.77 .2.,,. 171 • 371" 63 $29.00 -9.lti 361 0 16 2• 6" 89 $31.88 0.6" 55 0 0 10.5" $34.17 0.0,0 2011 2011 339 129 .39 107 35 11.1"-10 5"' 10.~ 11.," 11.7'91, 1,077 1,027 1,067 1,136 1,174 $33.97 $35.38 $36.13 S37.7O s .. 1.19 1.11' '"" 2.1" ,_.,,. 9_.,,. 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839 0 0 0 176 0 90 s 8 35 40 2'-'" 21.1" 20.6" 26.3" 24.1% 356 351 3'2 ◄8• <A3 527.91 $29.42 530.52 531.74 531.57 -3.0,0 5.4" 3.,,. '"" -0.S,. 171 171 171 171 171 0 0 0 0 0 ., 6 -21 -8 13,0,. 9..4" 21.5" 21 5" 26.2" 22 16 37 37 •5 528.91 S28.37 S26 85 $27.49 S27.93 .,,_.,,. .J.9'. -5.41, 2.49' 1.6% 432 432 432 432 432 71 0 0 0 0 98 13 -5 18 13 14.3" 11.4" 12.6" e.,,. 5.5% 62 •9 5• 36 24 530.81 $31.2, $31.14 531.27 $31 47 -3.A'I, '·"' .,,_.,,. 0.41, 0.69' 55 55 55 55 55 0 0 0 0 0 -8 5 ., 9 -6 25.8" 17.0% 18-8" 2.,,. 12.7" ,. 9 10 7 $28.71 $32.92 532.92 $34.12 S3A.12 -16°" , .... ~ 00,0 3.69' o .... N•I Abt.orpt,On 2012 2013 201" Encinifos Son Mocros N•tO.lli .... rio, 7012 2013 201 4 Encirutcu Son Morcos 70 ... 0 I 0 0 0 I 207 w .} IA 283 302 233 11~::! 221 11 -1••: 187 151 13.7" 13.5% 12, I" 136" 13 6% 11.6'91, 11.5% l2.e4A. I 12.~ 12.0% 1,388 1,409 1,28-4 1,505 S4 1 /1 7 1 3 ! 1,505 1,28.4 1,273 1,417 : 1,372 1,234 Ul.65 $42.22 $41.83 s,1.12 S-42.43 SA:2.35 $44.11 $44.27 I $42.19 $39.53 1.1% 1.4" -<l.9% -1.~ 7.,,. I -<l.2!1 '·"" 0.41' I 1.49' 2.8'1 I I 1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 1 2., ... 2,2'4 2,2'4 1,244 I 2,127 1,930 0 228 177 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 81 58 66 289 168 -56 18 : -29 ·• .4 : 97 66 20.5" 15.~ 1,.5,. 17.0% 16 2" I 1,.7,. 16.0% 16.2% 16.A" I 16.7% 19.7", 377 316 325 381 363: 330 359 363 368 : 353 37' S31.66 $31.82 $32.73 S33.43 534.20 I 533.67 $34.05 S3,t20 53•.05 I S32 77 SJl.50 0.,,. 0.5" 2.9% 2.111 2.~: 1111 0.4" -0.f'K : 1.6" '"' 171 171 171 256 2561 256 256 256 205 188 0 0 0 85 0 I 0 0 17 I 29 -11 3 92 9 I 12 0 2S ,. 9"" ,..,,. 13.8" 6.5" 2.8": 7.311 2.8" '·"" 2.8" 9.5" 13 9% 15 26 " 17 7 I 19 7 7 7 18 25 $27.79 528.30 529.08 531.77 S32.23 I 132.69 $32,05 $32.23 132.13 519 83 $16.87 -0.S'I '·"" 2.8'1 9_.,,. '·'": -2.0% 0611 0.0,0 2.9% '"' I I 432 •32 •32 432 432 I 432 432 432 432 432 432 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 0 -7 -23 161 20 3 0 -2 13 5,5" 4,7,. 6.311 116% 7.9'.: 13.,,. 8.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.2% 8.8'< 2• 20 27 so 34 I 57 37 34 34 31 38 $31.63 131.87 533.99 $34.39 $34.54 : 53•.01 $34.02 $34.5,4 $33.51 533.28 532 2A 0.5" 0.8'1 ··"' 1.:1!1 0.A" I 00,0 1,5,. -3.0,0 1.9% 0.8'< I I I ... , ... I ... , ... I I --·1 ... , I ···1 _, I 55 55 55 55 I 55: 55 55 55 ., 55 55 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 ·• ' ., 3 I 3 0 0 0 I 20.9" 18.6" 15.2" 166" 12.4" I 18.6% 12.A% 12 "" l2.A% 17.1" 16 2" II 10 8 10 7 I 10 7 7 7 9 9 S35.32 $35.32 $35.32 $37.72 $38.13 : $37.72 $38 13 $38.13 $38.13 $36.36 $34,./16 J.59' 0.0,0 0.0,0 6.8'1 I.I"! '·'" 0.0,0 0.0,0 2.:1!1 ''" 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2070 2021 •O~id• """"'""" 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 •~id• ■Corilbod THE CONCORD GROUP hm •2 P11• 94 of 173 DRAFT ~ _!:j ~ § .., . ',l ~ 2. ~ ;;: EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE • RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS Closs A 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual Market Fodor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quarter!!_ 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr ------------t®hiM,! Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $38.8 $35.2 S34.3 $33.6 $34.0 $35.4 $36.1 $37.7 $41.2 $41.7 $42.2 $41.8 $41.1 $44.1 j $42.4 $42.4 $44.1 $44.3 Y/Y%Chonge --9.5% -2.3" -2.1% 1.1% 4.2% 2.1% 4.3% 9.3% 1.1% 1.4% -0.9% -1.7% 7.3% I -0.2% 4.2% 0.4% ~ Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33.4 $34.2 l $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 S34.1 Y/Y%Chonge --2.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1 1.1% 0.4% -0.4% -Gross Roni Dirod ($/SF) $34.8 $32.1 $32.1 $29.0 $28.9 $28.4 $26.9 $27.5 $27.9 $27.8 $28.3 $29.1 $31.8 $32.2 j $32.7 $32.1 $32.2 $32.2 Y/Y%Chongo -7.7% 0.1% -9.7% -0.3% -1.9% -5.4% 2.4% 1.6% -0.5% 1.8% 2.8% 9.3% 1.4% I -2.0% 0.6% 0.0% Son Morcos Gross Roni Direct (S/SFJ $34.0 S31.6 $31.7 $31.9 $30.8 $31.2 $31.1 $31.3 $31.5 $31.6 $31.9 $34.0 $34.4 $34.5 : $34.0 $34.0 $34.5 $33.5 Y/Y%Chonge -7.3% 0.4% 0.6% -3.4% 1.4% -0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1 0.0% 1.5% -3.0% Gross Roni Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change v-__ GrossRent Direct(S/SF) $34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $28.7 $32.9 $32.9 $34.1 $34.1 $35.3 535.3 S35.3 $37.7 $38.1 l $37.7 $38.1 $38.1 $38.1 Y/Y%Chonge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -16.0% 14.7% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 1.1% 1 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Village Gross Roni Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change ~ :::::J Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change Sovth S.Och Gross Rent D;red ($/SF) Y/Y% Change Gross Rent Dirod (S/SF) $32.8 Y/Y% Change $32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29.4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31.6 $31. 7 $31.8 $33.1 $33. 7 $34.4 -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% $50 Histodcal Gross Direct Rent ($/Sf) $45 ~$40 ~$35 ~$30 ~ $25 i5 $20 $34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34.4 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% $42.2 $39.5 1.4% 5.6% $32.8 $31.5 1.6% 3.5% $29.8 $28.9 2.9% 2.1% $33.3 $32.2 1.9% 1.6% S36.4 534.5 2.2% 2.2% $32.9 $31.9 1.7% 3.1% ] S15 -1-----~-----~----~-----~----~-----~----~-----;:::-:----~-----~----~-----;,;;-----, '!; 2008 2012 -Carlsbad 2016 -Son N\arcos 2020 Vista -North County Oceanside Encinitas $50 Historical Gross Dired Rent ($/SF) $45 ~$40 ~ $35 ~$30 -~ $25 0 ----------------------....... ~ -------__ ----------------------- c S20 : s1s L----~-----~----~-----~----~-----~----~-----:~----~-----~----~-----:;;:::;;;-----1 8 2008 2012 2016 2020 --Industrial Corridor :,ource: l,,,.ostar 21091.00 Office Trends -Closs A: Rents Page 3 ol 4 71 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... :,.J § ~ 3 ,. N ":J .. "' "' "' g, .... --.J "' EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Class A Quarter!}'. Market Factor Norlh County 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual Avera11e 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ~ ~ Vacancy Y!Y%Change @Ii!# Vacancy YIY % Change Vacancy Y(Y % Change Son Matros Vacancy Y/Y% Change rEi'!<i11-tle Vacancy YIY % Change V acancy YIY % Change Vi/lag• Vacancy Y(Y%Change Vacancy Y/Y% Change South &ach Vacancy Y(Y% Change I 19.7% 20.1% 15.8% 13.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.7% 2.0% -21.4% -13.9% -18.4% -5.4% 3.8% 4.6% 2.6% 13.7% 13.5% 12.1% 13.6% 11.5% I 17.1% -1.5% -10.4% 12.4% -15.4% I I 32.1% 31.9% 33.1% 26.8% 21.4% 21.1% 20.6% 26.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15.3% -0.6% 3.8% -19.0% -20.1% -1.4% -2.4% 27.7% -8.4% -14.9% -25.4% 14.5% 17.0% 16.2%: 64.3% 58.6% 39.3% 37.1% 13.0% 9.4% 21.5% 21.5% 26.2% 9.0% 15.3% -8.9% -32.9% -5.6% -65.0% -27.7% 128.7% 0.0% 21.9% -65.6% 70.0% -5.2% 17.2% -4.7% ! 13.8% 6.5% 2.8% -9.8% -52.9% -56.9% 26.0% 26.7% 29.1% 24.6% 14.3% 11.4% 12.6% 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.3% 11.6% 7.9% 2.7% 9.0% -15.5% -41.9% -20.3% 10.5% -33.3% -34.5% 0.0% -14.5% 34.0% 84.1% -31.9% 10.8% 23.0% 11.1% 10.5% 25.8% 17.0% 18.8% 2.3% 12.7% 20.9% 18.6% 15.2% 18.6% 12.4% 113.0% -51.7% -5.4% 145.7% -34.1% 10.6% -87.8% 452.2% 64.6% -11.0% -18.3% 22.4% -33.3% Vacancy 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% Y!Y%Change 1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1% -8.6% 17.2% -12.4% 13.6% 11.6% -14.7% 14.7% 16.0% 8.8% 7.3% 2.8% -61.6% 11.5% -0.9% 16.2% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0% 13.3% 8.6% 7.9% -35.3% -8.1% 12.8% i 12.9% 12.0% 11.3% ! -0.3% -3.3% 16.4% j 16.7% 19.7% 1.2% ! -7.6% -9.6% 2.8% j 9.5% 13.9% 0.0% I -36. 1 % -40.4% 7.9% 0.0% 7.2% 8.8% 7.5% -20.3% 18.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 17.1% -0.5% 16.2% 3.4% 18.5% -33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 8.6% 19.7% -2.0% I ---I ---I I I 20.0% : 21.3% 70.0% Historical Vacancy (%)-----------------------------------, 60.0% - 1.5% I -4.7% 22.1% -4.4% ~ " ~ ~ " 8 ~ ~ .!! cl1 ~ " 8 ~ 50.0% ~H~t-------===--~ -----=--~ -J 10.0% ~ --=::j 0.0% ----.-----..-----...-------,.-----.------...--......_ -- - 2008 2012 -North County -Corl,bod Oceanside 2016 -San Macros --Encinitas 35.0% Historical Vacancy(%) 30.0% 2020 Vista 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% -------------·--~----------------------------~ .. ------------------------- 5.0% I ------.----r------:-~-----.-:-----,----~-----.---~:-----,------,----r------:;:-::::;:---0.0% +- 2008 2012 2016 2020 --Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends -Class A: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 72 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 0 fl OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class B " SELECT SUBMARKETS § 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual I Quarterly I Averages MarketFoctor(SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201" 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022Q1 1 5-Yr 10-Yr ,--------~ ___ -_-_-_-_~_-_-_-____ -----------_: --- Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 224 224 229 229 229 243 243 I 243 243 243 243 235 229 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O 3 0 5 0 0 13 0 I O O O 4 2 Net Absorption 1 0 5 -2 -5 3 -2 -3 6 10 3 -2 3 7 I O -3 2 4 2 Total Voconcy Role 3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% I 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% Vocont SF 9 9 4 6 11 8 11 17 11 6 3 5 15 8 I 6 5 8 6 7 9 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) S26.02 $21.54 $20.00 $23.55 $23.77 $21.60 $22.88 $27.87 $31.98 $35.39 $32.88 $32.19 $18.56 $34.94 I $34.30 $35.51 $34.94 $35.90 $30.79 S28.21 %Change -12.0% -17.2% -7.1% 17.8% 0.9% .9.1% 5.9% 21.8% 14.7% 10.7% -7.1% -2.1% -42.3% 88.3% : 3.5% -1.6% 2.7% 1.8% 4.0% i:Clri6iif ---------------------------. ----------Inventory SF (RSA, 000s) 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 I 81 81 81 81 I 81 81 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O I O 0 Net Absorption -7 10 5 5 4 -4 0 10 -1 2 2 0 0 -8 I -4 0 4 I -1 0 TotalVaconcyRote 40.3% 27.7% 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% I 4.3% 9.7% 9.7% 4.3% I 2.4% 6.4% Vacant SF 33 22 18 13 9 13 13 3 3 2 0 0 0 8 I 3 8 8 3 I 2 5 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $36.38 $35.67 $34.46 $30.91 $18.84 $19.23 $27.65 $26.89 $24.89 $25.41 $35.52 $30.51 1 $30.51 $30.51 $30.51 I $30.48 $26.12 %Change 50.5% .2.0% .J.4% -10.3% -39.0% 2.1% 43.8% -2.7% -7.4% 2.1% 39.8% ••• : 0.0% 0.0% I 4.2% -0.1% Sovths.och Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries O 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I O O O O 0 Net Absorption -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 I O -3 1 2 2 TotolVoconcyRote 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% I 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Vocont SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 I 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $27.60 $27.60 S27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $41.93 $40.32 I $41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -· •--3.8% 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% -· 4.5% .......,Aiii#i- lnventorySF(RBA,OOOs) 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries O O 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 -21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Role 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1% VocantSF 316 320 380 311 264 277 283 303 314 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $32.78 $32.60 S30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 $31.56 531.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 %Change -4.7% -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% ·-1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 1.5% 100 .-------------------------------Net Deliveries 'C' 80 ~ 60 1 e 40 a , ~ 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beoch a Industrial Corridor ■Olde Carlsbad ■Village 100 ~-----------------------------NetAbsorption 80 'C" 60 l 40 l 20 e o Q 5--20 .., "' f -40 ~ -60 !a. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ~ South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Corlsbod ■ Village 21091.00 Office Trends. Closs B, Performance (Sub) Poll"r~ of 4 THE CON CORD GROUP DRAFT Morket Foc:tor (Sf) frM?ffiW tmoenlOfY Sf (RSA, OOOll Net[)el;.wim N.t Absorption T ofol Voconcy 11:ale VocQ(ll Sf Gro.s Rent Oir9Cf !S/Sf) "Chorive Inventory Sf jll:BA, OD<n) N .. Oeli¥eriM NetAbso,ptlOl'I T otol Vacancy Role Vocont Sf Gros, Rent OirK1 IS/Sfl "Change Inventory SF (RSA. O00..j N•o.trvet"iM Net Abs«ption T otol Vacancy Ra1e Vocont Sf Gross Rent Dired (S/SFI "Change --1,wenlory SF IRBA. 000.1 Nei~~- Nef Absorption TotalYo«.JrlCY ltote Voconl Sf Orou Rent Direct ($/SF) "ChOf'IO" ~ Inventory SF (RSA, 000.I Neto.tiv.,-i., Net Absorption Totol Vocooc;y Rat. Vocont Sf Gtoss Rent Oiuad IS/Sf) "Change ~ lnvMIOI')' Sf (RSA, CK>Os) NMOeliYe,iu Nllf Absorption T otat Voconcy Rote Vocont Sf Oros, R.nt O.rect IS/Sf) "'"ortQe 2008 16,878 15,546 12,834 16.51' 2,785 S31.91 .,o.n 4,507 119 .55 21 4" 96A 529.30 0.0,0 989 Ul 96 17 °" 168 530.72 4.4" 69A 103 " 13 6" 9A S31 33 28."' 1,35• 22 .55 11 11' 150 $33.08 -7.S'4 1,097 62 .A3 17.3'1! 190 $29.99 19.~ 2009 17,183 306 -295 l9.71J. 3,385 S27 50 -13.-"' 4,666 159 107 21.8% 1,017 $26.02 -11.215 1,015 26 .7 19.8" 201 $26.59 -13."' 751 57 -20 172 S28 •6 -9,2'5 1,35• 0 " 10.1" 137 SJ0.05 -9,2" 1,160 63 7 21.11' 2'6 $28.32 -5.6'4 2010 17,294 111 50, 11.n 2,992 $26.32 -'.3'1 4,666 0 -19 22.2" 1,036 S23.82 .es" 1,095 80 102 16.-4'4 180 S25 56 "·"" 759 7 37 18.8" 1'3 S28.02 ., 5" 1,35• 0 37 "" 100 SJ0.85 2.7" 1,160 0 " 19 3" 22, $28.62 '·'" 2011 17,3•9 55 3A0 15 69' 2,706 526.62 1.1" 4,666 0 131 905 S73.89 0.3'1 1,106 11 19 15.5" 171 S22.71 -11,2" 759 0 • 18.~ 139 S27.19 -3.0'I 1,35-i 0 30 5.2" 70 S31 •1 ,..,. 1,160 0 31 16.6" 193 S26.72 -6.6" 2012 17,291 .57 -A8 15.61' 2,697 $26.66 0.21< 4,666 0 19 19 01' 887 $22.90 ""·'" 1,106 0 .3 15.8"' 175 $25.00 10.1" 757 -1 -28 21.9% 166 S25.93 -4.6'11i 1,358 • 5.41' 73 S32.20 2.5'4 1,160 0 .3 16.9% 196 S25.S2 -4.5" 2013 17,407 115 ,., 13 5% 2,350 $26 67 0.0,0 4,666 0 177 15.2% 709 523.35 2.0,0 1,163 57 64 1-4.5% 169 S20.28 -18.9" 757 0 -1 22.0% 167 s2s.•o -2.0'I 1,358 0 18 4.1" 56 S32.46 .... 1,160 0 -52 21.•'Jt'i, 2'8 $23.26 -8.9'1! EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKITT 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 201.t 2015 17,462 55 362 11.7% 2,0-43 S28.01 5.0,0 •.666 0 140 12.2" 569 $26.22 1,185 22 23 167 $20.55 1.3'1 757 0 " 16.2" 123 $26.60 5.5" 1,392 3< 16 5.3" $32.•9 0.1" 1,160 0 39 18.0% 209 $22.26 -<.3'1 17,664 202 '78 10.0% 1,766 $29.00 3.S" 4,743 77 58 12.4% 588 $27.02 3.1 .. 1,200 16 11.•" 137 S22.11 7.6" 787 30 ,o , •. 3" 113 S27.53 '·"' 1,392 0 15 4.2" 58 $35.99 JO.ft 1,167 6 96 10 2% 119 $23.17 "" 2016 17,874 111 -132 11 8% 2,109 $30.89 6.5" 4,975 232 -66 17.8" 886 S28.•9 5.4':I' 1,200 0 " 113 $22.29 0.8'1 787 0 " 10.2" 80 S28.A2 J 21< " 2.7" 38 S37 09 3.1" 1,167 0 -32 12.9% 151 S22.93 ·'·°" 2017 17,886 11 .79 11.n 2,200 $30 -46 ·'·"" 5,011 36 -1 922 $28.71 0.8'1 1,200 0 0 113 $2A.00 7.7" 8'7 60 " 11.•" 97 $26.13 • -32 5.3" $38.98 5.19' 1,178 12 -6 lA.3'1'. 169 $21.68 -5.S" 2018 17,910 25 255 11.0% 1,970 SJ0.72 o."" 5,011 0 30 17.,. 892 529.48 Vll 1,200 0 23 7.5" 90 $23.-49 863 16 32 9.3" 80 $27 .20 17 "·'" 57 $37.81 "·°" 1,178 0 " 10.6" 125 $21 09 -2.7'1 2019 18,070 160 10.6% 1,915 S31.21 1.6" 5,066 55 177 15.2" 770 $30 26 2.6" 1,200 0 2 7.3" .. $22.79 -3.0'I 863 0 29 5 .... 51 $28.08 3.21, 1,-423 24 27 3.8'< 5A SA0.3◄ 6"' 1,178 0 -87 18.0% 212 $21.17 0.4'4 2020 18,210 140 -167 12.2% 2,222 S32,77 50,0 5,080 13 113 13 21< 671 $31.70 '·"' 2021 j 2021 Q2 I 18,248 1 18,203 38 I 70 1 12.0%: n n 2,190 : 2,330 534.19 I S33 39 4.3'5 : 5,080 I 0 I -25: 13.7"' I 696: $32.01 I '•"": 5,080 731 S31.85 ----&1 1,300 100 68 9,2" 120 863 0 -12 7.3" 63 1,A23 0 -37 91 SA2.30 '·"" 1,178 0 .:,, 20.~ $25.68 21.~ 1,29• I -6: AO I 5.7"'' 7A: $25.56 I 3.3'1,: I I 8631 0: -181 9.•": 81 I $2A.80 : -9."' I I 1,-483 ! 60 I 65: 5.8". 861 $A2.60 : 0.7%1 I I 1,178: 0 I . : 206" I 2•3: $26.88 I "·"' ! 1,29• 7,6" 98 S25.5-4 863 6 .... 60 $27.53 1,423 6.3'1 90 $"2.91 1,178 20.1" 237 $26,51 Quo..,.rty 2021 QJ 2021 Q4 18,263 60 16 13 °" 2,J]A 533.83 1.3'1 5,080 0 20 711 S32.05 0.61' 1,29A 0 25 5,7" 863 0 -16 8.7" 75 s2e.•1 3.21, l,•83 60 A9 6.8" 101 $42.05 -2.°" 1,178 0 -8 20.8" S27 67 18,248 -15 169 1201' 2,190 $3.f 19 ,.,~ 5,080 0 15 13.7', 696 $3'1.01 -0.1" 1,29A 0 0 5.7" 7A S25.56 0.51. 863 0 81 $2A.80 .J2."' l,A83 0 15 5.8'< 86 $-42.60 1 3'I 1,178 0 2 20.6" 2'3 $26.88 -2.~ Closs 8 2022 Ql j 18,1'8 I 5-Y, 10-Yr 18 11.,. 2,172 $3-4.6. 1.3'1 5,080 0 66 1'1.•" 630 S32.16 0.59' 1,29A 0 ·" 96 863 0 73 $26.JA 6 21< l,A83 0 0 5.8'< 86 s•2.•6 .03'1 1,178 0 -2 20.8" 2'5 $26.64 -<>-"" 18,065 75 59 11.6" 2,099 $31.87 2.lll 5.049 " 59 15.l" 790 S30.AJ 2.4~ 1,239 19 27 7.,. 97 $2A. l2 , .... 860 15 15 8.7" 7A $26.73 -2.1" 1,A26 18 8 5.1" 73 S◄0 •1 2.8'1 1,178 2 -16 16.9" 199 $23.30 3.21, 17,802 90 '2,146 $30.06 2 5ll •.896 " 62 15.5" 759 $28.01 30,0 1,205 19 29 12, $23.0!I 1.21< 015 10 16 12.8" 102 $26.78 1,A02 13 11 66 $37.23 3 lll 1,171 2 .3 192 S.23,36 0 '" 300 ~------------------------NetAbaorption __________________________________ ~ 250 200 ! 1 150 ! 100 J 50 -50 -100 -150 .200 ~--------------------------------------------------------------~ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201• 1015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Visto •fneinitos Son MouOf ■Oeeomide 500 ~-------------------------Net Delli,..,;., _________________________________ --, •50 ,oo i 1 350 i 300 ,1 250 200 150 100 50 2008 2009 21091.00 Office Trends• Class 8. Pcwformonc• (City! O<t..17, 2022 2010 2011 2012 2013 Visro Encinitas 201A 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1020 2021 Son Marcos ■Oceanside ■Corl$bod THE CONCORD GROUP 1t,m 1'2 P11• ,a ol 17-' DRAFT ~ ~ -" ,_, § ii 3 ~ :: " :g !!. ~ "' EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS Closs B 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual Market Fodor -·-. --·-· 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quarterl,t 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr ;;;;;;;;;;;;:;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -----------------------------------------t@,UW ------ Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $31 . 9 Y/Y%Change Carlsbad Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $29.3 Y/Y% Change ~ Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $30.7 Y/Y% Change -- San Marco, Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $31.3 Y/Y% Change ·- 'm;initr,, Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $33.1 Y/Y% Change Yi,ta Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.0 Y/Y% Change -- Village Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $26.0 Y/Y% Change $36.4 Sovth 8t1ach Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $27.6 YIY% Change $32.8 $27.5 S26.3 $26.6 $26.7 $26.7 $28.0 $29.0 $30.9 $30.5 $30.7 $31.2 $32.8 $34.2 -13.8% -4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0% 3.5% 6.5% -1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 5.0% 4.3% $26.0 -11.2% $26.6 -13.4% $28.5 -9.2% $30.1 -9.2% $28.3 -5.6% $21.5 -17.2% $35.7 -2.0% $27.6 0.0% $32.6 -0.5% S23.8 $23.9 -8.5% 0.3% S25.6 $22.7 -3.9% -11.2% $28.0 $27.2 -1.5% -3.0% $30.9 $31.4 2.7% 1.8% $28.6 $26.7 1.1% -6.6% $20.0 $23.6 -7.1% 17.8% $34.5 $30.9 -3.4% -10.3% $27.6 $26.0 0.0% -5.7% $30.3 $29.6 -7.1% -2.4% $22.9 -4.1 % $25.0 10.1% $25.9 -4.6% $32.2 2.5% $25.5 -4.5% $23.8 0.9% $18.8 -39.0% $26.0 0.0% S29.4 -0.5% $23.4 2.0% $20.3 -18.9% $25.4 -2.0% $32.5 0.8% $23.3 -8.9% $21.6 -9.1% $19.2 2.1% $26.0 0.0% $30.4 3.2% $26.2 12.3% $20.6 1.3% $26.8 5.5% $32.5 0.1% $22.3 -4.3% $22.9 5.9% $27.7 43.8% S26.0 0.0% $31.4 3.4% $27.0 $28.5 3.1% 5.4% $22.l $22.3 7.6% 0.8% $27.5 $28.4 2.7% 3.2% $36.0 $37.1 10.8% 3.1% $23.2 $22.9 4.1% -1.0% $27.9 $32.0 21.8% 14.7% $26.9 $24.9 -2.7% -7.4% $31.9 $31.6 1.6% -1.1% $28.7 0.8% $24.0 7.7% $26.l -8.1% $39.0 5.1% $21.7 -5.5% $35.4 10.7% $25.4 2.1% $31.7 0.5% $29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0 2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 1.0% $23.5 $22.8 $24.7 $25.6 -2.1% -3.0% 8.6% 3.3% $27.2 S28. l $27.5 $24.8 4.1% 3.2% -2.2% -9.7% $37.8 $40.3 $42.3 $42.6 -3.0% 6.7% 4.9% 0.7% $21. l $21 .2 $25.7 $26.9 -2.7% 0.4% 21.3% 4.7% $32.9 $32.2 $18.6 $34.9 -7.1% -2.1% -42.3% 88.3% $35.5 $30.5 39.8% $41.9 $40.3 $31 .8 $33.1 $33.7 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% -3.8% $34.4 2.1% $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $45 _ $40 !,:. ~ $35 b-~ $30 ~ $25 - $33.4 $33.8 $34.2 $34.6 1.3% 1.1 % 1.3% $31.9 $32.l $32.0 $32.2 -0.6% -0.1% 0.5% $25.5 $25.4 $25.6 $25.3 -0.4% 0.5% -0.9% $27.5 $28.4 $24.8 $26.3 3.2% -12.7% 6.2% $42.9 $42.l $42.6 $42.5 -2.0% 1.3% -0.3% $26.5 $27.7 $26.9 $26.6 4.4% -2.9% -0.9% $34.3 $35.5 $34.9 $35.9 --3.5% -1.6% 2.7% $30.5 $30.5 $30.5 0.0% 0.0% $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 $34.0 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% $34.4 1.4% $34.4 -0.1% $34.4 -0.1% - $31.9 2.1% $30.4 2.4% $24.1 2.8% $26.7 -2.7% $40.4 2.8% $23.3 3.2% S30.8 1.8% $30.5 4.2% $41. l S32.9 1.7% $30.l 5.1% $28.0 6.0% $23.l 2.4% $26.8 -1.8% $37.2 6.3% $23.4 0.1% $28.2 8.2% $26.l -0.3% $32.1 9.1% $31.9 3.1% ---- c s20 l---~---~---~---~---~---~---~-----::.:-:----~---~---~----;;;;;-------4 ~ $15 ~ 2008 2011 -Carlsbad 2016 -Son Marcos 2010 Vista -North County Oceanside Encinitas ~ $40 >SO ~ H;.,oo,a G~ ~-~-l>/SO $45 ---~ ~ ----------------------------..-..l .,,.._"'1..--------~ $35 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -_ _ _ _ _ __________ ::._ ..,._ _ c. -;:_ ____ -., -,,J":-_ -, , .._ ,;, ,; ~$30 --~----:::....---------·-------------=..-.. ,, \ , ; , ' t -' -/· --~ ----~-----r! ' ~ ' ,,, -I _g $25 -.. ____ -~ _ _ _ _ ,, ___ -, ,; 0 -----------..... ---~--' '; c $20 --------\ 0 '::; S15 , , 20'12 , 1016 "" 2008 0 --Olde Carlsbad South Beach --Village ;::,ource: L.Osrar 2020 --Industrial Corridor / / 21091.00 Office Trends . Closs 8: Rents Poge 3 ol 4 75 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... _..., ~ N N ;. 3 .. N ,:, " .. "' § !l. .... ..., w EXHIBITV-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS Class B Market Factor North County Vacancy Y/Y % Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y/Y % Change Vacancy Y/Y% Change Son Man:os Vacancy Y/Y%Change .f,iQ.(!j/g,_ Vacancy Y/Y % Change Vi/lag• Vacancy Y/Y % Change Vacancy Y/Y %Change Soulh Beach Vacancy Y/Y % Change 7i Vacancy 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 16.5% 19.7% 17.3% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5% 11.7% 10.0% 11.8% 12.3% 11.0% 19.4% -12.2% -9.8% 0.0% -13.5% -13.3% -14.5% 18.0% 4.2% -10.6% 21.4% 21.8% 22.2% 19.4% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 12.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.8% 1.9% 1.8% -12.6% -2.1% -20.0% -19.7% 1.6% 43.5% 3.4% -3.3% 17.0% 19.8% 16.4% 15.5% 15.8% 14.5% 14.1% 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5% 16.5% -17.2% -5.5% 1.9% -8.2% -2.8% -19.1% -17.5% 0.0% -20.2% 13.6% 22.9% 18.8% 18.3% 21.9% 22.0% 16.2% 14.3% 10.2% 11.4% 9.3% 68.4% -17.9% -2.7% 19.7% 0.5% -26.4% -11.7% -28.7% 11.8% -18.4% 11.1% 10.1% 7.4% 5.2% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 5.3% 4.1% -9.0% -26.7% -29.7% 3.8% -24.1% 29.3% -20.8% -35.7% 96.3% -22.6% 17.3% 21.2% 19.3% 16.6% 16.9% 21.4% 18.0% 10.2% 12.9% 14.3% 10.6% 22.5% -9.0% -14.0% 1.8% 26.6% -15.9% -43.3% 26.5% 10.9% -25.9% 3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.6% -55.0% 50.0% 85.2% -24.0% 26.3% 56.3% -37.3% -46.8% -56.0% 40.3% 27.7% 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% -31.3% -21.3% -27.5% -27.8% 43.9% 0.6% -78.2% 19.4% -51.2% #### 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -1 7.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7% 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% Y/Y % Chan. ,g:_:e ____________________ -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_,,,-25.0% T 1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1% Historical Vacancy (%) 2019 2020 2021 10.6% 12.2% 12.0% -3.6% 15.1% -1 .6% 15.2% 13.2% 13.7% -14.6% -13.2% 3.8% 7.3% 9.2% 5.7% -2.7% 26.0% -38.0% 5.9% 7.3% 9.4% -36.6% 23.7% 28.8% 3.8% 6.4% 5.8% -7.3% 68.4% -9.4% 18.0% 20.9% 20.6% 69.8% 16.1% -1.4% I 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% 81.8% 205.0% -47.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% -14.8% 37.8% -80.7% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% -8.6% 17.2% -12.4% Quarter~ 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ------------ 12.8% 13.0% 12.0% 11.9% 1.6% -7.7% -0.8% 14.4% 14.0% 13.7% 12.4% -2.8% -2.1% -9.5% 7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 7.4% -25.0% 0.0% 29.8% 6.9% 8.7% 9.4% 8.5% 26.1% 8.0% -9.6% 6.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 7.9% -14.7% 0.0% 20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.8% 3.5% -1.0% 1.0% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% -8.7% 52.4% -21.9% 4.3% 9.7% 9.7% 4.3% 125.6% 0.0% -55.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 225.0% -30.8% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 8.6% -2.0% 1.5% Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr 11 .6% 12.1% 0.3% -5.1% 15.7% 15.5% -5.1% -6.7% 7.8% 10.4% -9.5% -18.1% 8.7% 12.8% -1.6% -12.5% 5.1% 4.7% 16.5% 2.2% 16.9% 16.4% 9.8% 4.4% 3.0% 4.1% -7.4% 3.5% 2.4% 6.4% 17.7% -9.3% 9.9% 10.1% -25.5% -29.7% 21.3% 22.1% -4.7% -4.4% 20.0% £ 15.0% " L_ ~ 10.0% 1-f'==------.... .... - ~ C: 0 1 5.0% 0.0% 2008 ---------- ~--~=~-~-1 l .!! ell ~ C: 0 u ~ 2012 -North County -Carlsbad Oceanside 45.0% ~ -------------------------------Historical Vacancy(%) 2016 -SonMocros Encinitas 2020 Vista """ -------------------------""" --------------------------- 32I: --------·--------a-------.--::_ ----------.--------~-·----~ ----,,::..,;- . ---~ ------. -----""" ------------~---------=-.:.•-=~-----------15.0% _ _ _ --__ -------- 1 ~:g~ ----------------- --------- 0.0% 2008 2012 --Village --Old Carlsbad 2016 South Beach 2020 --Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends -Class 8: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 76 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 ~ OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class C " SELECT SUBMARKETS ~ 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual I Quarterly I Averages Market Foctor(SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql I 5-Yr 10-Yr !'iii! lnventorySF(RBA,OOOs) 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 167 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O -16 0 O O O O O O O O O -2 Net Absorption 5 -5 1 6 3 -6 -6 -14 3 2 2 4 -12 8 2 6 1 1 -2 Total Voconcy Role 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8% 7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% Vocont SF 7 11 10 5 1 8 14 12 9 7 5 1 13 5 12 10 5 4 6 7 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $24.23 $19.62 $20.95 $19.62 $21.31 $22.01 $27.08 $25.66 $26.86 $26.48 $29.02 $30.83 $33.90 $31.24 $32.49 S32.91 $31.24 $32.03 $30.29 $27.44 % Change -6.7% -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -1.4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% --1.3% -5.1% 2.5% 3.1% 4.8% 9'i Ai¥¥ ----,,,..----,,,,.----,,..---..,,.,---..,,.,---..,,.---...... --....,,,...---,,,,.----=-=----= . --..,,.,---.,,.,.. Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 I 79 79 79 79 I 79 79 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O : 0 0 0 : 0 0 Net Absorption -1 -6 1 -4 7 -1 2 0 2 -3 0 0 3 -2 I -2 0 0 I O 1 TotalVocancyRote 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0% 2.8% I 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% I 2.5% 2.7% Vocont SF 1 7 6 10 3 4 2 2 0 3 2 3 0 2 : 0 2 2 2 : 2 2 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S25.79 S25.35 $24.00 S 17.15 S 17.58 $17.35 $17.35 $32. 74 --$33.36 $45.93 $34.58 $43.57 1 $41.81 $44.05 $43.57 $43.57 I $39.36 $30.31 % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% : 5.4% -l.1% 0.0% : 5.9% 9.8% Sovths.ad, Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) Net DelfVeries Net Absorption Total Vacancy Rote Vacant SF Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) o/, Change iiw"jiii"c.ii Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 j 9 9 9 9 j 9 9 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I --0 0 0 I O 0 Net Absorption O O -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 : 0 0 0 : 0 0 TotalVocancyRote 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 11.6% 16.6% Vocant SF O O 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 O I O O O O I 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $41.97 $41.97 $29.37 ... : $29.37 $29.37 .•. ! $29.37 529.37 % Change --0.0% -· ! 0.0% 100 -,---------------------------------Net Deliveries BO ;[ 60 i 40 ~ ~ 20 g 0 CT "' -20 -40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ lndustriol Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village 15 ~-------------------------------Net Abs.orption 10 -I s " -3 ! 0 " u.. ..., ~ g -5 -o CT ~ v, -10 8 -15 2, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 .;j South 8eoch ■ lndvstrK>I Corridor ■ Olde Corlsbod ■ Village 21091.00 Office Trends -Closs C, Perfonnonce (Sub) Pog"7~ of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Morbt Fodor !SF) 2008 2009 ~m,1m! lnvvi,tory SF (RBA,. DOOsl 4,707 -'i,707 NM Deliveries A,.432 0 N.i Ablorpl1on 4,073 .94 T otol Voconcy Rate 1.7" 9.7" Voconl SF 362 ,., Gron Rent Oifed (S/SF) $22.AA S20.82 "ChoflQe -38.~ -7.2" lnvento,y SF (RBA, 000,j 37A J7A N.t o.liveriM 0 0 N.t Absorption 2 -16 l Ofol Vo<:ancy Role ..... 9.2, Vacant Sf 18 3' Ol'oss Rent Dir.ct IS/Sf) $26.13 S22.53 "Cho ... 0.9" -13.~ lmrenlory Sf IRM. 0OOsl 418 '18 N.t Deliveries 0 0 Net Absorption -9 -23 TOfol Voconcy Role 7.7" 13.3% Vocont Sf 32 56 Gross Renl Direct ($/Sf) $25.23 $22.69 % Change 4.6" .,o.,, s..,- Inventory SF (RBA, OOCn) 433 433 N.t Deliveries 0 0 N.t Ab.orpti<>n -9 5 lOfol VOCOflCY Rate 9 °" 7.8'1 VocQnt Sf 39 3' Grou Renl Oired (S/SF} $17.-i3 $16.57 "Change S.5" .. .,. lnvenlory SF (RSA. OOCn) 279 279 Nel C>.iivllJl'ies 5 0 Neil Absorption -11 l otol Vacancy Role 6.8" .,,. Vocont Sf 19 19 Gross Renl Direct (S/SF) $32.26 $28.69 "Chan;e -12.1" .JI.I% 'Mio, 1r,veolory Sf IRBA. 000.1 531 531 Neto.IN•-0 0 NllfAbt.orption -22 Tofol Vocoocy Rat. 10.7% 10.5% Voconl SF 57 56 Grou Rent Dired {$/Sf) S19.98 $17.90 "Cho• '.,, .,o.4~ 60 ,o :a j 20 ! ~ Jf -20 -40 -60 2008 2009 12 10 I i ! ~ Jf 2008 2009 21091 00 Office lr.nds. Clem C: Performance (City) Oct.17.2022 2010 2011 2012 2013 4,712 4,710 4,712 4,711 5 .1 1 0 .25 58 _., 9 6" 10 1% 8.9" 9.8" •52 .,. '19 •62 S20 38 U0.11 $18.73 S19 45 .2.1" -1.~ -6.9% 3.8'1 37' 37' 37' 37• 0 0 0 0 -10 ·2 18 4 11.8% 12.3% 7.5" 6.5% .. •6 28 " $73.27 S22.20 $19.05 $20.05 3.3" ..... -14.~ 5.2" .,. '18 '18 A18 0 0 0 0 4 -2 10 -8 12.3" 12.8% 10.5" 12.3" 51 SA .. 51 S22.45 S2l.97 $20.76 $21.33 ·''" -2.1% -5,5'11, 2.7'1 433 431 All '31 0 -1 0 0 12 ,1 .3 .9 5.0ll 5.0ll 5.6% 1.7% 22 22 2A 33 $16.04 $15.16 $1'.99 S15 21 -3.2" -5.5" .J,I" J.S" 282 282 285 285 3 0 0 7 -1 10 0 5.2% S.5" 3.1% "" 15 16 9 9 S31 04 S3-4.12 $32.99 $32.39 8.2" 9 ... -3.3" -1.8 5,0 540 5'0 5'0 9 0 0 0 -10 -10 .J -9 13.7'. 15.5" 161% 17.7" " 84 87 96 $17.23 S16.5-4 SI 7.99 Sl8.26 -3 7ll "'·°" 8.8" I 5" 2010 2011 2012 Vi .. o ■Encinito.. 2010 2011 2012 Vida EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class C SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quon•!!l A'4roa .. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 j 2021 Q2 2021 03 2021 04 2022 QI i 5-Yr 10-Yr I I 4,701 .4,681 4,681 4,664 4,631 A,630 4,612 4,612 I 4,612 4,612 .. ,612 4,612 I 4,630 4,663 .11 -20 0 -17 .33 -2 -18 0 I 0 0 O I _,. -10 23 38 80 -30 25 -6 -22 6~;~ i -28 _,. 37 : -13 "" 7.9" 6.2"-6.5" 5.3" 5 . .4" 5 5" 5.31' 5.9" 6.2" 5,-1" I 5.8 .. '·'" '28 370 290 303 2'5 250 25A n/08: ! 2U 272 286 n/14: ! 268 331 $19.11 $19 23 $20,27 $21.01 $22.23 $22 48 S.25 28 $26.57 S27.23 $27.05 S23 61 S21.A8 .J.~ 0.6" .... 3.711 5.8" 1.19' 12.s, 7(J,i I 2.5 ... -Clll O.~ I 5.9" 3.0,i I I 37' 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 I 358 358 358 358 358 363 -16 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 -2 ·• -10 0 .4 • .3 .15 .5: -5 • 8 .4 -1 7.5" 6 l" 6.2% 7.21' 5.1% 5.9" 10.1, 11.5" I 12.21' 13.7" 11.5" 9.2 .. 8.o,i 1.," 28 22 22 26 18 21 36 ,, l .. .. " 33 28 27 $22.69 $2.(.36 S26.91 $26.17 S27.7-i S31.23 $33.25 $29.69 I $29.62 $28.20 $29.69 $29.97 $29.62 $26.11 13.~ 7.49', 10.5% -2.7'i 6.0,i 12.6'11, 6.5 .. .J0.7'6 : ...... 5.3" 0.9" '°" 2.9" I '12 "' "1 "' "' "' "' All I "' "' .. -2 0 0 0 0 0 O I 0 -1 I -11 9 18 .3 0 9 -1, -7 2 13.7" 11 3" 6.9" 6.4 .. "" 7.2" 5.1" 5,414 I 2.514 4.3" 5.414 6.2% 8.6% 56 •• 28 26 29 30 21 22 : 10 18 22 21 26 35 $20.78 $21.62 $22.80 S21 20 $24.20 SJ0.80 $28.07 $31.22 I S28.36 $29,.f9 S31.22 $31.99 $27.10 $2A.28 -2.611 4.0,i s.s, ·'°" 14.7' 27.3'5 -8.9% JI.~: 4.0,i 5.9" 2,5'5 • 5" .... I I '31 431 431 ,31 All '31 '31 .(31 I 431 431 '31 431 431 '31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 o l 0 0 -6 13 -1 11 -16 -11 -6 I 3 -12 6 I .5 -2 5.7" '·°" 3.9" .f.2% 1.6" s., .. 7 ... 9.3%: "" 6.5% 9.3" 7.9" 5.7" 5.8" 25 30 17 18 7 23 3• AO I 31 28 40 3A ,. 25 $15.76 $15.67 $18 ... $15.70 $17 58 $18.77 Sl8.12 St8.40 : $17.29 $18. ,. $18.A0 $18.40 $17.71 $16 86 3.6" ~.6'5 "·"' -1'.9" 12.0'I 6.,. ..J.5" 1.5% I , .... 1.49' o.o,i o.o,i 2.o,i I I 285 285 285 285 285 285 284 28• I 28• 28• 28• 28' 285 285 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 I 0 0 0 0 0 -1 5 3 2 .. 6 .. -i: ., 0 .5 -1 3.7% l.8" 0.9" 0.2% 3.3" "" 2.2% 2.7% I 2.1" 2.6" 2.7" .... 1.9" 2.2% 11 5 3 1 3 6 8 I 8 13 $31.62 $32 85 S35.48 $36.06 $45.26 $43.89 '" 32 $43.03 ; $40.25 $40.06 $A3.03 $40.75 $42.51 S37 .79 -2.415 3.9" 80.. , .... 2s.s,i, -3.0ll '·°" -2.9'1. I -CS" 7.4" .s.3'. 3.9" 23" I I SAO SAO 5•0 SAO 5'0 540 5'0 5,m: SAO 5'0 540 5'0 5'0 540 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O I 0 0 0 0 5 • " 13 5 13 .. -3 1 .. -8 4 I 16.7". 16 o,i 13.4'/I, 10.9% 9.9" 7.4% 8.2" 9.7% I 7. '" 8.3" 9.7" 9.1" 9.214 12.6" 90 86 72 59 53 •o .. 52 : 38 .. 52 ,9 50 68 $17.77 S17.08 $18.16 $20.77 $15.68 $16.34 $18.81 $27.52 I $18.81 $28.61 $27 52 $28,13 $19.82 $18.84 .2.1'% -3.9" 6.3" '"·'" -24.5. 4.2" IS.I. 46.3% ! 52.115 .. .... 22" 8.7'1 5.2" Net Abaorption ■ - 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Son Moc:ro,; •O~ru.•d• ■Cari~ NetO.lli-..riet 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ■ScmMorcos ■Corlsbod Poge2of4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ ~ " ,., § ;. 3 " ,., '3 " m ~ @ a ~ " w EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Class C Quartert.r Morke1 Fodor . --·-· 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ---------------------------2020 2021 ~ 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr ------North County Gross Rent Dired ($/Sf) S22.4 $20.8 S20.4 $20.1 $18.7 S19.5 $19.1 $19.2 $20.3 $21.0 S22.2 $22.5 $25.3 $27.1 $26.6 Y!Y%Chonge -7.2% -2.1% -1.3% -6.9% 3.8% -1.7% 0.6% 5.4% 3.7% 5.8% 1.1% 12.5% 7.0% W®t Gross Rent Dired ($/Sf) S26. l $22.5 $23.3 S22.2 $19.1 S20.1 $22.7 Y/Y%Change -13.8% 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% 5.2% 13.2% ~ j Gross Rent Dired IS/SF) S25.2 $22.7 S22.5 S22.0 $20.8 $21.3 $20.8 Y/Y% Change -10.1% -1.1% -2.1% -5.5% 2.7% -2.6% Son Marcos Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) S17.4 $16.6 $16.0 $15.2 $15.0 $15.2 $15.8 Y/Y % Change -4.9% -3.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.5% 3.6% ~ I Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $32.3 $28.7 $31.0 $34.1 $33.0 $32.4 $31.6 Y/Y% Change -11.1% 8.2% 9.9% -3.3% -1.8% -2.4% .V-""1 - Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $20.0 $17.9 $17.2 $16.5 $18.0 $18.3 Sl 7.8 Y/Y % Change -10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5% -2.7% Village Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $24.2 Sl9.6 $21.0 $19.6 $21.3 $22.0 $27.1 Y/Y % Change -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0% GrossRentDired(S/SF) $25.8 $25.4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 Y/Y % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% South S.ach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y % Change Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $42.0 $42.0 Y/Y % Change -· 0.0% $24.4 S26.9 S26.2 7.4% 10.5% -2.7% $21.6 S22.8 $21.2 4.0% 5.5% -7.0% $15.7 $18.4 $15.7 -0.6% 17.7% -14.9% $32.9 $35.5 $36.1 3.9% 8.0% 1.6% $17.1 S18.2 $20.8 -3.9% 6.3% 14.4% $25.7 $26.9 $26.5 -5.2% 4.7% -1.4% $32.7 $27.7 $31.2 $33.3 S29.7 j S29.6 6.0% 12.6% 6.5% -10.7% ! S24.2 $30.8 $28.1 s31.2 i $28.4 14.2% 27.3% -8.9% 11.2% I $17.6 $18.8 $18.1 s 1a.4 l S17.3 12.0% 6.8% -3.5% 1.5% I $45.3 $43.9 $44.3 $43.0 j $40.3 25.5% -3.0% 1.0% -2.9% ! $15.7 $16.3 $18.8 $27.5 : $18.8 -24.5% 4.2% 15.1% 46.3% I $29.0 $30.8 $33.9 s31.2 l $32.5 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% I $33.4 $45.9 $34.6 $43.6 j $41.8 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% . I I ·--I ---I I I s29.4 -·· l s29.4 ... ! $27.2 $27.1 $27.1 2.5% -0.7% 0.3% $28.2 $29.7 $30.0 -4.8% 5.3% 0.9% S29.5 $31.2 $32.0 4.0% 5.9% 2.5% $18.1 S 18.4 $18.4 4.9% 1.4% 0.0% $40.1 $43.0 $40.8 -0.5% 7.4% -5.3% S28.6 $27.5 $28.1 52.1% -3.8% 2.2% $32.9 $31.2 $32.0 1.3% -5.1% 2.5% $44.1 $43.6 $43.6 5.4% -1. 1% 0.0% $29.4 0.0% $23.6 $21.5 5.9% 6.1% $29.6 $26.1 2.0% 6.0% $27.1 $24.3 6.5% 7.3% S 17.7 $16.9 0.0% 3.9% $42.5 $37.8 3.9% 4.7% $19.8 $18.8 8.7% 10.7% $30.3 $27.4 3.1% 9.7% $39.4 $30.3 5.9% 20.5% $29.4 S29.4 ::: 6 _ "''-;oo; G= o;-~ ($,SO _ __ -;::-$40 ----~ I :!~ ---=---=--------------~ --~ ---- . -7 -==-~ .i $25 g ·- 0 $20 ~ $15 "' -- = 2008 $50 $45 -;::-$40 >-~ S35 -.... ~$30 t; -~ $25 0 c $20 0 ':; $ 15 2008 8 :>ource: l...Ostar -North County 2012 -Carlsbad Oceanside 2016 -Son Morcos -Encinitas 2020 Vista Hi,torical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) ,-----, ,,,,,,-!lr,,._, ~ ~ ' , I _.\.. , , ' I \ -t---~ ------i __ \ ---------' ,. ------~-~-I ',... I \ --------r --------------- 1 \ I --I\. I \. ------7~--~~-~:::~::::~-:: _____ ' 2012 _ -Village --Olde Carlsbad I 2016 South Beach \. I I I ' I \ ~ 2020 --Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends -Closs C: Rents Page 3 of 4 79 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ ~ :" 2 "' [ ~ I ~ g st ~ .... "' EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Class C Annual Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quarterl_r 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr ------North Covnly Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf) Y/Y%Change Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) Y/Y%Change Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf) Y/Y% Change SonMarros Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) Y/Y% Change [Eiiani'rir- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change V'- Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) Y/Y% Change Villofltl Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) Y/Y% Change $22.4 S26.1 $25.2 Sl 7.4 $32.3 $20.0 $24.2 $20.8 -7.2% $22.5 -13.8% $22.7 -10.1% $16.6 -4.9% $28.7 -11.1% $20.4 S20. l $18.7 -2.1% -1.3% -6.9% $23.3 S22.2 $19.l 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% S22.5 $22.0 $20.8 -1.1% -2.1% -5.5% $16.0 $15.2 $15.0 -3.2% -5.5% -1.1 % $31.0 $34.1 $33.0 8.2% 9.9% -3.3% $19.5 3.8% S20.1 5.2% S21.3 2.7% $15.2 1.5% $32.4 -1.8% $17.9 $17.2 Sl6.5 $18.0 $18.3 -10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5% $19.6 $21.0 S19.6 S21.3 $22.0 -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% $19.1 -1.7% S22.7 13.2% $20.8 -2.6% $15.8 3.6% S31.6 -2.4% $19.2 0.6% $24.4 7.4% S21.6 4.0% $15.7 -0.6% $32.9 3.9% $20.3 $21.0 5.4% 3.7% $26.9 $26.2 10.5% -2.7% S22.8 $21.2 5.5% -7.0% $18.4 $15.7 17.7% -14.9% $35.5 $36.1 8.0% 1.6% $22.2 5.8% $27.7 6.0% S24.2 14.2% $17.6 12.0% S45.3 25.5% $22.5 1.1% $31.2 12.6% $30.8 27.3% $18.8 6.8% $43.9 -3.0% $25.3 $27.1 12.5% 7.0% $33.3 $29.7 6.5% -10.7% $28. l $31.2 -8.9% 11.2% $18.l $18.4 -3.5% 1.5% $44.3 $43.0 1.0% -2.9% S26.6 S29.6 $28.4 $17.3 $40.3 $17.8 Sl7.l $18.2 $20.8 Sl5.7 $16.3 Sl8.8 $27.5 j $18.8 46.3% -2.7% -3.9% 6.3% 14.4% -24.5% 4.2% 15.1% S27.1 $25.7 S26.9 $26.5 $29.0 $30.8 S33.9 23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -l .4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% $31.2 i S32.5 -7.8% I $27.2 2.5% S28.2 -4.8% S29.5 4.0% SIB.I 4.9% $40.l -0.5% $28.6 52.1% S32.9 1.3% $27.l -0.7% S29.7 5.3% $31.2 5.9% $18.4 1.4% $43.0 7.4% $27.5 -3.8% $31.2 -5.1% I $27.l : 0.3% I I I $30.0 I 0.9% I $32.0 2.5% $18.4 0.0% $40.8 _ -5.3%: I $28.l 2.2% $32.0 2.5% GrossRentDirect($/SF) $25.8 $25.4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 $32.7 $33.4 $45.9 $34.6 $43.6 $41.8 $44.1 $43.6 $43.6 Y/Y % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% Sovth Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% 5.4% -1.1% 0.0% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change $42.0 $42.0 $29.4 $29.4 $29.4 0.0% 0.0% $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $45 $23.6 $21.5 5.9% 6.1% $29.6 $26.l 2.0% 6.0% $27.1 $24.3 6.5% 7.3% $17.7 $16.9 0.0% 3.9% $42.5 $37.8 3.9% 4.7% $19.8 $18.8 8.7% 10.7% $30.3 $27.4 3.1% 9.7% $39.4 $30.3 5.9% · 20.5% $29.4 $29.4 _ $40 ~ $35 J $30 ~ $25 i5 $20 ~ ----_.;.-,.____ --~=------------==-='" ~ --------+-i $15 ~ 2008 -North County 2012 -Carlsbad Oceanside ~ 2016 -Son Morcos $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) - Encinitas 2020 Vis1o .,.,,...--- -..... -.......... $45 --,,. , -S40 I -----\ ,,. ..,,. ....., , ,,,,,,. ,,,,,,. ~ I \ ,, ,, --_.,_ --~ $35 / \ \ L-~------- 4,4 --~ ---/ -$30 f--\ _ -t-~ ---------r I \ ~ $25 -------J.. --\ _ -------------I \ j" / \ O -----__ , ____________ \..--------I \ I ✓ \ i $20 -I ----..\ -----------' I I '::; $15 --·-' 8 2008 2012 --Village --Olde Carlsbad :x>urce: L.Ostar 2016 South Beach --Industrial Corridor 2020 21091.00 Office Trends -Class C: Rents Page 3 of 4 79 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... ·" ~ :::! ;. 3 "' N Market Fodor North County Vacancy Y/Y% Chonge Corlsbad Vacancy Y/Y% Chonge Or»iiiiiidi Vacancy Y/Y% Change San Morcos Vacancy Y/Y % Change //#aw Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vi/lag• Vacancy Y/Y% Change -Camba;/ Vacancy Y/Y% Change South &ad, Vacancy Y/Y% Change ~Ctimdtir Vacancy l Y/Y% Change 20.0% 15.0% " 10.0% ~ ~ C: 8 ~ l " ~ 5.0% 0.0% 2008 - -- - EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3% 26.0% -1.0% 5.2% -11.9% 10.1% -7.1% -13.2% -21.5% 4.8% -18.5% 4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1% 87.8% 28.3% 4.2% -39.0% -13.3% 15.4% -18.7% 1.6% 16.1% -29.2% 2019 5.4% 1.9% 5.9% 15.7% 2020 5.5% 1.9% 10.1% 71.2% 7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3% 6.9% 6.4% -7.2% 7.1% 10.9% 7.2% 5.1% 72.7% -7.5% 4.1% -18.0% 17.1% 11.4% -17.5% -38.9% 9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0% 3.9% -13.3% -35.9% 0.0% 12.0% 37.5% -26.0% 22.8% -44.3% 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% -1.5% -22.4% 5.8% -43.6% 3.2% 15.6% -51.4% -50.0% 10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0% 13.4% -1.9% 30.5% 13.1% 3.9% 9.9% -5.6% -4.2% -16.3% 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 73.0% -9.4% -55.2% -73.1% 514.3% 83.7% -7.6% -23.3% 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 481.3% -11.8% 62.2% -69.2% 26.8% -50.0% -15.4% -100.0% 1.4% -29.2% 4.2% 1.6% 5.4% 7.7% -61.9% 237.5% 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% -77.8% 1550.0% -63.6% 10.9% 9.9% 7.4% -18.7% -9.2% -25.3% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% -23.2% -32.6% -79.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% -14.3% 6.7% 7.9% 46.3% 2.2% 83.3% 8.2% 10.8% 8.0% 1233.3% 0.0% -100.0% 2021 6.2% 12.7% 11.5% 13.9% 5.4% 5.9% 9.3% 17.7% 2.7% 22.7% 9.7% 18.3% 2.8% -65.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 43. 7% 43.7% 59 .7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% -66.4% -100.0% - -North County ,, ~ ., ., . ---_Historical Vacancy(%) --=----- 2012 -Carlsbad -------~ -----,~ ' ,------ ' ,· ' Oceanside Historical Vacancy (%) --------- 2016 -Son Macros - ";:/ ~ OQ C: .. 8 .... 8:8~ :i=---0 ~ -~~~~:;~~:-::::::~~~=::-..;-;;~;;~~=~~~~==~=---~- "' 5!, 2008 .... _ -Village ..., "' 21091.00 Office Trends -Closs C: Vacancy 2012 --Old Ca~,bod Page 4 of 4 BO 2016 South Beach Class C Quarter~ 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr -------------------- 5.3% 5.9% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 7.1% 11.3% 5.1% -12.9% 0.0% -9.3% 12.2% 13.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.4% 12.3% -16.1% -20.0% 13.2% -1.3% 2.5% 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 8.6% 72.0% 25.6% -5.6% -4.8% -15.9% 7.2% 6.5% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 5.8% -9.7% 43.1% -15.1% 19.0% 13.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 4.6% 1.9% 2.2% 23.8% 3.8% 70.4% 24.6% -13.3% 7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.2% 12.6% 16.9% 16.9% -6.2% -6.3% -8.9% 7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% -18.2% -55.6% -17.9% -12.9% 1.5% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 16.7% 0.0% -26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% -100.0% '--~ ~ Encinitas 4 ✓ ,, ,, --Industrial Corridor 2020 Vista 2020 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... _ .... ..., § EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual Class C Quarter!l_ Market Fodor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr i; 3 .. ..., ~ .. " .... 0 a, s. .... .... "' North Counly Vacancy Y!Y% Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y!Y%Change Vacancy Y/Y% Change San Marcos Vacancy Y/Y% Change '&aiiiiii Vacancy Y/Y % Chc,_ri_ge y,a1q Vacancy Y/Y% Change Village Vacancy Y/Y% Change raiie:~ Vacancy Y/Y% Change Soulh Beach Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vacancy l Y/Y% Change 20.0% 15.0% " 10.0% ~ ~ C 8 ~ l " ~ ~ C 8 ~ 5.0% 0.0% 2008 2008 7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3% 5.4% 1.9% 5.5% 1.9% 6.2% 12.7% 26.0% -1.0% 5.2% -11.9% 10.1% -7.1% -13.2% -21.5% 4.8% -18.5% 4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1 % 5.9% 10.1% 71.2% 11.5% 13.9% 87.8% 28.3% 4.2% -39.0% -13.3% 15.4% -18.7% 7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3% 72.7% -7.5% 4.1% -18.0% 17.1% 11.4% -17.5% 9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0% -13.3% -35.9% 0.0% 12.0% 37.5% -26.0% 22.8% 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% -1.5% -22.4% 5.8% -43.6% 3.2% 15.6% -51.4% 10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0% -1.9% 30.5% 13.1% 3.9% 9.9% -5.6% -4.2% 1.6% 16.1% -29.2% 15.7% 6.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.2% -38.9% -7.2% 10.9% 1.4% 3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 5.4% -44.3% 7.7% -61.9% 237.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% -50.0% -77.8% 1550.0% -63.6% 13.4% 10.9% 9.9% 7.4% -16.3% -18.7% -9.2% -25.3% 5.1% -29.2% 7.9% 46.3% 2.2% 83.3% 8.2% 10.8% 5.4% 5.9% 9.3% 17.7% 2.7% 22.7% 9.7% 18.3% 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8% 73.0% -9.4% -55.2% -73.1 % 514.3% 83.7% -7.6% -23.3% -23.2% -32.6% -79.3% 1233.3% -65.0% 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1 % 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% -100.0% 2.8% 481.3% -11.8% 62.2% -69.2% 26.8% -50.0% -15.4% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% Historical Vacancy (%) ~ ~ - 2012 -14.3% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% -66.4% -100.0% ------=-~ 5.3% 12.2% 2.5% 7.2% 2.1% 7.1% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% - -North County -Cod,bod Oceanside Historical Vacancy (%) 2016 -Son Macros -Encinitas ~-_,,,...-, ,-------.. ' ' 5.9% 11.3% 13.7% 12.3% 4.3% 72.0% 6.5% -9.7% 2.6% 23.8% 8.3% 16.9% 6.3% -18.2% 2.4% 0.0% ' -----' ~ ~----------------.... --,.. -:-._,,_ ·-~~~~~~ ~;__ .;__ :;_ ~ ~ ~ = ~?:5~~ =-:~-~-~~-~------:~-, 2012 6.2% 5.1% 11.5% -16.1% 5.4% 25.6% 9.3% 43.1% 2.7% 3.8% 9.7% 16.9% 2.8% -55.6% 2.8% 16.7% 0.0% --v;tloge --Old Carlsbad 2016 South Beach --Industrial Corridor 21 091 .00 Office Trends -Class C: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 80 .. -------- 5.4% -12.9% 9.2% -20.0% 5.1% -5.6% 7.9% -15.1% 4.6% 70.4% I 9.1% -6.2% 2.3% -17.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2020 Vista ,__ .,_ ... 2020 5.8% 7.1% 0.0% -9.3% 8.0% 7.4% 13.2% -1.3% 6.2% 8.6% -4.8% -15.9% 5.7% 5.8% 19.0% 13.2% 1.9% 2.2% 24.6% -13.3% 9.2% 12.6% -6.3% -8.9% 3.7% 4.4% -12.9% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7% -26.8% 11.6% 16.6% -100.0% -~ .... ~ THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 ~ ~ .... § EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Creative Market Factor !S~ Annual I Quarterly I Averages 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20U 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 ~:~~ ~ Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) Net Deliveries Net Absorption Total Vacancy Rote Vocont Sf Gross Rent o;red ($/SF) % Change ¥Miii.,( Inventory Sf (RBA, OOOs) Net Deliveries Net Absorption T otol Vacancy Rote Vacant SF Gross Rent o;red ($/SF) % Change Sovlh8-ach Inventory Sf (RBA, OOOs) Net Deliveries Net Absorption Total Vacancy Rate Vacant SF Gross Rent o;red (S/SF) %Change .....,-a,""' Inventory SF (RBA, OOOsf 9 Net Deliveries 0 Net Absorption 0 Total Vacancy Rate 0.0% Vocont SF 0 Gross Rent o;red ($/SF) %Change 100 -.:-80 0 ., -60 ;; of e 40 0 , er 20 v> 0 2008 2009 5 4 3 -c-2 0 f !!!. 1 ;; • 0 ~ u. ! -1 0 -2 , " er -3 ~ v> Ill -4 ~ -5 2, 2008 2009 ~ .... "" 21091.00 Office Trends. Creative: Performance {Sub) 9 9 0 0 0 -4 0.0% 43.7% 0 4 $41.97 2010 South Beach 2010 South Beach 9 9 0 0 0 -1 43.7% 59.7% 4 5 $41.97 0.0% 2011 2012 2011 2012 9 9 9 0 0 0 4 0 0 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 1 1 1 ------ Net Deliveries 2013 2014 ■ Industrial Corridor 2013 2014 ■ Industrial Corridor 9 9 9 9 9 9 j 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 1 0 0 -4 3 1 I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0%: 0 0 0 4 1 0 I $29.37 I ---, ----! 2015 2016 2017 2018 ■ Olde Corlsbod 2015 2016 2017 2018 ■ Olde Corlsbod Poge8\ of 4 9 0.0% 0 $29.37 9 0 0 0.0% 0 $29.37 0.0% 2019 ■Village 2019 ■V.lloge 9 0 0 0.0% 0 2020 2020 9 j 9 9 0 1 0 0 0 I 0 0 0.0%: 11.6% 16.6% 0 I 1 1 I $29.37 $29.37 ••• 1 2021 2021 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBITV-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Creative Morbt Factor /SF) Annuol Quor1•1iy A.,..rogu 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 j 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 a• 2022 QI j 5-Yr 10-Yr tMtfkPfltt, hwenlory Sf (RSA., OOOs) Net [)olr,eries ,02 ,02 '10 '10 '13 '13 '13 '13 '17 '17 '17 '19 '19 '19 ! '19 '19 '19 '19 1 '18 '16 Net Ab.orplion Total Voconq Rote 1/ocont Sf Gron Rttnt Direct ($/SF} "ChOl'lflll lnvet1tory SF (RBA. OOO•t Ne! Deliveries Ne!Ab.orplion T Oletl VOCOl'IC)' Rote Vocont Sf OroH Renl Dir.ct IS/Sfl % Change hwentory Sf (RIM. 000..1 Net o.i..,..,iff N•~ion T otc,1 Yoconq Rot. Vocont Sf Gross Rani Oir9d ($/SF) % Chono- s.,Morm, lnveolory Sf (RBA. OOOa! N .. Del,.,.eries N• ,.t,J»«p,ion Tdol Voconq Rote Vocoril Sf OroH Rent Direct 1S/SFI "Cho~ ~ Inventory SF IRBA. OO<n) Net OeHvetiM Net Absorption TotalVoconcyRote Vocont Sf Gron Rtnt Dired !S/Sf) "Cho""9 -lnv-,,tory Sf jRBA, OOOs) N.io.t...-..-Ntt: NetAbsorplion TOlol Voconq Rote VocontSf Gro11 Rent Dired (S/Sf} "Cho~ 2008 163 0 ., 14.~ 23 528.17 -5.2'!1 10 0 0 IS 5" 3 $21.32 0 .3 60.0" 3 $21.00 17 0 0"" 0 2009 163 0 -23 28.1% .. $21."7 -23.K 18 0 10 6% 2 $21.32 o.°" 3 o."" 0 $23.52 12.09ft 17 0 0 o"" 0 163 0 ,. 19"" 31 $19.20 -106" 18 0 -6 41 7% 8 $18 92 -11~ 6 '" 0 $23.36 -C.711 2010 17 0 0 o."" 0 Vit10 163 0 -6 22.-4" 37 $21.50 """ 18 0 . 21 5% ' $17.40 -8.0% 0 0.°" 0 $18.00 -22.911 17 0 0 o"" 0 2011 163 0 -•8 51.6" 8< 18 0 -5 46.6" • $17.16 '"" 0 $13.36 29.8'1 17 o."" 0 163 17 41.0'4 67 $21.37 ""·"" 18 IS.I% 3 $18.32 6.8'1 0 0 0.°" 0 $20.44 -12.59' 17 o."" 0 2012 Enc,nilo, 163 0 32 21.6" 35 $23.38 4.5" 18 0.°" 0 $18 32 0 . .,,. 8 0 0 0.°" 0 17 o."" 0 2013 163 12 l-4.l" 23 $25.48 9 . .,,. 18 0 .2 9.9" 2 $19.52 6.69' 0 0.°" 0 17 0 0 0"" 0 163 -25 29,3" 48 S26.69 '·"' 18 0 0 11.2" 2 $18.30 -6.~ 12 ' 1 17,9" 2 $27.00 17 0 0 o."" 0 2014 Son Moc,ot 163 0 -38 52.3% 85 $27.26 2.19' 18 0 -2 20.l" ' $20.73 13 3'I 2 o."" 0 $27.00 o"" 17 0 0 o."" 0 $11 88 2015 163 0 26 36.6% 60 $28.05 2.9" 18 0 ' o."" 0 $22.52 8.69' 12 0 0 o"" 0 17 0 -3 18.4" 3 $18.96 59.69' 163 0 18.9" 31 $28.22 0,6" 18 0 -2 10.6% 2 12 0 0 0"" 0 17 0 3 1.4" 0 2016 163 0 9 13.6% 22 127.26 ··'-'" 18 0 -1 16 7% 3 $35 23 12 0 0 3"" 0 $48.92 17 0 0 o."" 0 2017 163 I 0 I 13: 5.6% I 9 l $28.07 I "3,°": 163 12.49' 20 $29.35 163 8 7.7t. 13 $29.0S ·'·°" 163 0 3 S.6,. 9 S28.07 -3.49' 163 0 0 S.6% 9 S29.01 3"" 163 0 25,A"' ,1 S27.77 '·"" 1--.... --.,.,.---,----J...--18 I 18 18 18 18 18 0 : 0 0 0 l I ·1 0 0 108%: 6.A" 6,4" 10.844 10.8'6. 11.6% 2 I 1 $.41.97 I $35.69 $37.17 19.19': 4 '" I I ••• I I ···1 .... ... : ···I ···: -1 I I 12 : 0 I -2 : 22.3".1 3 I $49.69 : 1.69' I I I ,,: 01 -2: 9.~, 2 l ···I -· I ! 12 20.9% 2 $A8.92 17 10.1" 2 12 0 2 2.8% 0 S28.52 -'1.~ 17 0 2 o"" 0 2018 2019 ■Corl..bod 12 0 -2 22.3% 3 $A9.69 74.2'1. 17 0 ·2 9.7% 2 $A1.97 o"" $30.11 18.19' 12 : 12 0 I 0 -2 I 36 8" : S 1% < I 1 $49.69 : $41.87 0.09' I 13.09' I I 11 I 11 O I O 0: 0 9.~ I 5.9" 2 : ••• 1 s1s.42 -· I ! 2020 2021 163 0 3 28 5% 46 $25.92 2.7" 18 0 0 3 $23.56 9.2'1 10 "" $32.74 I0.7'1i 17 0 0 3."" $15.42 ~------------------------_,....,o.1ti-..ne. _________________________________ ~ 2008 2009 So..-.:., CoStor 21091 00 Office Tritnds . Cr.atil,e: Perfonnon<:• (City) Oct.17.2022 2010 2011 Vista 2012 2013 2014 Encir11t0l •Son Morc0-1 " 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 •Oceanside ■Carlsbad THE CONCORD GROUP Item •2 P•t • 101 of 173 DRAFT 0 fl ;:; N ~ ~ 3 ~ I ~ a ~ -., .. EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Market Factor ~ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 North County 2020 2021 Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf) $28.9 S26.3 $22.2 $25.l $23.l $25.3 $26.6 $29.8 $32.7 $27.3 $31.5 $34.2 $36.4 $43.2 Y/Y% Change -9.1% -15.7% 13.5% -8.1% 9.6% 4.9% 12.1% 9.9% -16.6% 15.6% 8.3% 6.6% 18.5% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S28.2 $21.5 Sl9.2 $21.5 $22.4 $22.4 $23.4 S25.5 $26.7 $27.3 $28.l $28.2 $27.3 $28.l Y/Y% Change -23.8% -10.6% 12.0% 4.3% -0.3% 4.5% 9.0% 4.7% 2.1% 2.9% 0.6% -3.4% 3.0% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S21.3 $21.3 $18.9 $17.4 $17.2 $18.3 $18.3 $19.5 $18.3 $20.7 $22.5 Y/Y%Chonge 0.0% -11.3% -8.0% -1.4% 6.8% 0.0% 6.6% -6.2% 13.3% 8.6% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf) Y/Y%Chonge f,JCioil<o Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf) Y/Y%Chonge Village Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) Y/Y% Change ilf/i/iiEi"""-==== -Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change $21.0 $23.5 12.0% $23.4 $18.0 $23.4 S20.4 $27.0 $27.0 -0.7% -22.9% 29.8% -1 2.5% 0.0% $11.9 $19.0 59.6% $42.0 $42.0 0.0% $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent (S/SF) $45 ~$40 S $35 ~ $30 ~ $25 i5 $20 t $15 "' 2008 ~ -North County 2012 -Carlsbad Oceanside 1016 -Son Marcos $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $45 ~ $40 >-~ $35 ~ $30 -~ $25 C c $20 " ':; $ 15 s 2008 :,ource: L.Ostor I I ,-,-----\ I ---\ I \ -t---~ I \ _ -Village 2012 --Olde Carlsbad 2016 South Beach $35.2 $42.0 19.1% ... i I $48.9 I $49.7 I 1.6% I I I ..• I ..• I $29.4 21091.00 Office Trends . Creative: Rents Page 3 of 4 83 Creative Quarterl.r 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ------------ $42.2 $42.5 $43.2 $48.0 0.6% 1.6% 11.2% $29.4 S29. l $28. l S29.0 · 1.0% -3.4% 3.3% $35.7 $37.2 $42.0 $42.0 4.1% 12.9% 0.0% $48.9 $28.5 $49.7 -41.7% 74.2% S29.4 S29.4 0.0% __.......,__ Encinitas I I $49.7 I o.0% I I I I ---I t 2020 Vista I 1, I Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr $34.5 $31.0 5.7% 11.4% $27.8 $25.9 1.0% 5.5% $30.l S23.6 18.1% 19.3% $41.9 $32.7 13.0% 22.5% $15.4 $15.4 $29.4 S29.4 ' ' ' ~ 2020 --Industrial Corridor THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... _..., N s N Market Factor North Covnly Vacancy Y!Y%Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y/Y% Change ~- Vacancy Y/Y% Change Son Marcos Vacancy Y/Y% Change Encinilt# -----1 Vacancy Y/Y% Change M,i.o Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vacancy Y/Y % Change Sovlh Beach Vacancy Y/Y % Change ,i/iiiino/Com'c Vacancy Y/Y % Change iUi f l EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 11.0% 15.9% 17.8% 14.6% 26.6% 23.2% 16.9% 11.5% 19.1% 24.7% 20.0% 15.0% 13.2% 1.3% I 44.5% 11.9% -18.0% 82.2% -12.8% -27.2% -32.0% 66.1% 29.3% -19.0% -25.0% -12.0% -44.7% ! 14.3% 28.1% 19.0% 22.4% 51.6% 41 .0% 21.6% 14.1% 29.3% 52.3% 36.6% 18.9% 13.6% 5.6% i 96.5% -32.4% 17.9% 130.4% -20.5% -47.3% -34.7% 107.8% 78.5% -30.0% -48.4% -28.0% -58.8% I 15.5% 10.6% 41.7% 21.5% 46.6% 15.1% 0.0% 9.9% 11.2% 20.1% 0.0% 10.6% 16.7% 10.8% i -31.6% 293.4% -48.4% 116.7% -67 .6% -100.0% 13.1% 79.5% -100.0% 57.5% -35.3% I ·--t I t 60.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 22.3% I -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% 643.3% I I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 1.4% 0.0% 9.7% I -92.4% -100.0% ... I 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% -66.4% -100.0% Historical Vacancy (%) Creative Quarlerl~ Annual Averaae 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ~ ~ 11.6% 6.6% 7.3% 7.2% 16.0% 17.8% -43.1% 10.6% -1.4% -17.5% -12.9% 12.4% 7.7% 5.6% 5.6% 25.4% 28.5% -37.9% -27.3% 0.0% -28.2% -24.2% 6.4% 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 14.1% 0.0% 68.8% 0.0% -0.7% -12.9% 20.9% 2.8% 22.3% 36.8% 5.1% 4.7% -86.6% 696.4% 65.0% 4.5% 10.1% 0.0% 9.7% 9.7% 5.9% 3.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% -100.0% £ ii! ~ 1 --::z-=--=-. /----.::; ............... - --:---=~-:---~-~ --I ~~---:--::.~ -> ~ ~ C 0 V ~ l £ ii! ~ ~ ... C .. 8 .... .... ~ 0 5!, .... ..., "" l 2008 ~g:~~ r 2008 ~- \.. .........___, -North County 7 ,, ✓,------ _ -Village 21091.00 Office Trends -Creative: Vacancy -Corlsbod ·-•-----,.. 2012 " ' 2012 ' ' ~ '-_,._ Oceanside Historical Vacancy (%) --------------------.... -Old Carlsbad Page 4 of 4 84 2016 -Son Macros ........ 2016 South Beach Encinrfos ,, ✓ --Industrial Corridor 2020 -Visto 2020 -- THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 0 fl OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Medical -~ SELECT SUBMARKETS § 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual I Quarterly I Averages MaricetFaclo,(SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 : 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022Ql : 5-Y, 10-Y, ra,p, ------------------------------. --. Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 99 99 99 99 99 I 99 99 99 99 I 99 96 Net Dei;,,.,,ies O O O O O O O O O 5 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 : 1 1 Net Absorption -2 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -6 6 4 3 -2 -2 1 I O -1 0 I 1 0 Total Vacancy Rote 4.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 8.8% 2.1% 3.5% 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% I 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% I 2.8% 3.3% Vacant SF 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 8 2 3 0 2 5 4 : 2 2 4 4 : 3 3 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.94 $23.62 $22.22 S25.00 S22.07 $23.05 $21.36 $26.39 S35.00 $38.79 $33.52 $28.52 •.. I $33.52 I $33.61 $28.59 %Change -10.7% -8.9% -5.9% 12.5% -11.7% 4.4% -7.3% 23.5% 32.6% 10.8% -13.6% ____ ----I -- ""s-,,+a( -------- Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net DelMtries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Net Absorption O 6 5 4 6 -5 0 4 3 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate 44.7% 33.5% 22.8% 15.1% 4.0% 13.1% 13.0% 5.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% i 2.5% 4.8% Vacant SF 22 17 11 8 2 7 7 3 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 : I 2 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $41.01 $41.82 $40.37 $41.65 $27.12 $21.00 $37.05 S4 l.14 $33.76 $43.30 $47.30 S50.30 $52.77 $50.30 $50.30 $50.30 I $46.97 537.62 %Change --2.0% -3.5% 3.2% -34.9% -22.6% 76.4% 11.0% -17.9% --9.2% 6.3% -4.7% 0.0% 0.0% ! 8.,J'X, 1.9% Sovlhs.ach Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Net Delive,ies O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Net Absorption -11 6 1 1 3 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -3 1 -1 0 Total Vacancy Rate 18.1% 8.3% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 5.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.9% Vacant SF 11 5 4 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 3 1 1 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $32.05 $30.00 $30.00 $32.05 $33.00 $32.05 $27.54 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------0.0% 6.8% 3.0% 2.1% SF (RBA, OOOs) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 I 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O O 0 Net Abso,ption O O -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 : 0 0 0 0 0 TotolVoconcyRote 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Vacant SF O O 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 I O O O O 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf) $41.97 $41.97 $29.37 •·· : $29.37 S29.37 $29.37 529.37 % Change 0.0% ··· I 0.0% 100 -------------------------------Net Deliveries -c-80 .ll -60 ~ J: ~ 40 g ~ 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach •Industrial Corridor ■Olde Carlsbad ■Village 15 ------------------------------NetAbsorption 10 ;[ 5 ~ 0 ~ -5 ~ g ·10 I; -15 !l, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■ Village 21091.00 Office Trends. Medical: Performance (Sub) Poge8S of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBITV.2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS Madicol 200B THROUGH 2021 Annual Mal'Ut Foc10, IS!:J 2008 2009 Quort•!!z ........ ruset 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 j 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q.C 2022 QI j 5-Yr 10-Yr BIB Inventory SF (RBA. ()O(n) 5,832 I I 6,013 6,11-4 6,169 6,290 6,405 6,422 6,439 6,Al4 6,661 6,736 6,736 6,893 6,931 1 6,886 6,946 6,931 6,931 6,791 6,593 N.i Oeliv«ies 191 91 Nel Absorption 29 117 T otol Vaconcy Roi• 12.1, 14,.C" 13 6" Voe.ant Sf 706 867 832 Cx011 Rlfftt Dir.O fS/Sf) S33.63 $31.52 $32.20 "Cho• •6311 2.2'1 Inventory Sf (RSA. OOOi.l 486 531 531 Neto.liYe,iNc 69 '5 0 N.i Ahl<>fpfion 46 47 -1 Totol Voconcy Rote 16.5% lA.6" lA.8" Voc.QntSF 80 77 79 Gron R~ Direct (S/SF) $37,31 $36.20 $36.96 "Change -2.5" .J,o,i, 2.J" lrwe,nlOfY SF (RSA, 000s1 636 662 742 N.t o.liverin 175 26 80 NetAl:»orpion 81 ., 91 Total: Voconcy Rotti 25.0.. 28 '" 23 6" Vocont SF 159 186 175 Gron Rent Direct ($/Sf) $3376 $30 36 $30.82 '4 Change ·'-~ -10.1% 15" --lnvvnlory SF (RSA,, 000,) 729 786 786 Neito.liveries 75 57 0 Net Absorption 30 -22 19 lotol Voconcy Rot• 9 7" 19,l"-16.7"- Vacant SF 71 150 131 Gross Rent Direct jS/Sf) $33 20 S29.92 $29.99 1'Chono-32.3'1. .9.9% 0.2'1 -ln¥11nfo,y Sf {RSA. OOOsj N• Oeliv.,in Net~,on Toto! Vacancy Rote Voconl SF Grou Refit Oirlk.1 (S/SFI 1'Cho"Q• -ln.,ento,y SF (UA.. 000s) 586 650 658 NetD.iiver.-s 82 63 9 Net~;on 5 -4 31 T04ol Voconq Rote 16.91' 25.6" 21.7'1. Vocont SF 99 166 143 Gron R.ec,t 01,-ct IS/SF) S3• 25 $33.31 $33.56 %C"°""' 2351' -2.,,. 0"" 100 150 I ■ 1 100 ! s ,K 50 -50 -100 2008 2009 2010 Vi.to 450 400 ;[ 350 1 300 ! s ,K 250 200 150 100 50 2008 2009 2010 •Vi,to Source: CoSto, 21091 00 OfflC• Trends• Medical: Performonu (Cilyj Oc:1. 17, 2022 55 13 """ 864 S3L64 .l.7li 531 0 18 11.5" 61 S37.79 2.2" 753 II 26 21.2" 160 $26.37 .,, ... 786 0 _,, 20 1% 158 $29.46 -18" 658 0 II 20.0% 132 $30.26 -9,S,, 2011 2011 111 115 17 17 -25 167 100 34 108 67 13.0'% 13.01' 12.7" 9.7'1 8.,,. 818 833 816 625 531 $29.25 $27.68 $29.70 $29,7-4 $30.06 .1.6" ... 7li 6.5" 0.1~ 1.1" 531 531 531 531 531 0 0 0 0 0 15 -55 10 46 13 8.7% 19.0% 17.1" 8.4" 6.0ll <6 IOI 91 45 32 $25.81 528.94 $37.71 $37.49 $38.87 -31.7% 12.J" 30.311 -0.6" 3.7" 753 810 832 836 836 0 57 22 4 0 56 57 13 18 0 13.8" 12.9% 13 6% 11.8% 11.8'4 10, 105 113 99 99 S29 47 $23 23 $2-4.46 $16.30 $26.67 118" -21 2% 5311 7 5% '·'" 857 857 857 857 857 71 0 0 69 12 17 3 43 18.7Yt 17.3% 15"' 15.0% lOOll 160 \48 131 129 86 $27.32 S27.96 S29.-'1 $29.39 $30.00 .,.~ 2.311 5.2'1 -0.l'lfi 2.11' 658 658 658 658 658 0 0 0 0 0 -15 7 5 79 -7 22.3% 21.2% 20.5% 8.5" 9.6% 147 140 135 56 63 $28.81 $27.92 $28. lA $25.36 $26.35 "'·"" .J.11,11, 0.8" -9,9" 3.9" N.t Absorption 2012 2013 201• focinl1os Son Mi:xros N.t D•lliverift 2012 2013 201• Endnilcn ■Son Morcos .. 2'6 75 0 157 38 I 60 -15 0 103 76 226 116 7A .53 35 : 13 35 0 80 97 . "' 7.6" 6.5" 9.d, 9 ... ,, 9.s, 10.1, 9.4" 9 4" 8.2" 98" 553 511 438 648 $3/;: ! 654 702 652 652 560 642 $31.89 $32.10 $32.27 $33.20 $33,47 $34,31 $32.54 $33.27 $31.'40 $30.80 6.1" 0.7li 0.5" 2.9" -2.0'I I I 2.51' -52'1 2.2" 16% 0.311 566 566 566 566 566 I 566 566 566 566 566 548 36 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 • 33 3 5 ·22 2 : 12 -6 ... 4 5 6.1% 5.5'4 4.6" 8.A% 8.°" I 9 2" 7.0ll 8.0ll 105" 6.S" 9.2" 35 31 26 48 .45: 52 40 45 59 37 50 $39,AS $37.41 $37.85 U3.66 SAl.47 I S-43.95 543.38 U l.47 $42.77 $39.97 536.87 I 5" -5.2'1 1.2" 15.4" .s.~ I -1.~ .. '" J,J" I J.311 0.9" ,-.. I 836 836 836 921 914 I 914 914 91' 868 841 0 0 0 85 -6: 0 0 16 16 38 ·16 18 53 30 I 27 -15 _,, 25 27 7.2" 9.1'4 7.0ll 9.8" 5.~: 7.2" 4"' 5.9" . "' 7.8" 10"' 60 76 58 90 54 I 66 39 54 76 68 86 $26 65 $27.69 $28 41 $32.90 $31.80 I $32.33 $32.02 $31.80 $30.77 $29,49 $27. 76 .QI% 3.9" 2.6'4 15.~ .J.311i l .J.0% .Q.7'1 -3.2" 3,6,. 1.9" I I 917 917 917 917 917 I 917 917 917 917 917 887 60 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 12 13 39 21 31 -14 -21 I 2 7 15 22 11.61' 9.,,. 5.8" 7.3"-1.s"' 1 7.8" 7.11' 7.5"-6.11' 8.,,. 11.81' 106 8> 53 67 69 I 72 71 69 61 76 103 $27.95 $28.77 $31.33 $30.81 $26.-'l : $31.03 $31.,.. $26.41 $28.03 $29.05 $28.9-' -6.8% 2.9" 8.9" -1.7% -14.3'1, I 0.49' -152" 6.1'9i. -2.51' .J.1,. I I I .... ···I ... I I ... , ... , I ···, -· I I I 658 658 658 658 658: 658 658 658 658 658 658 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 4 13 2 -21 -31 .7 -9 -5 .1 6 I 9.0ll 7.1" 68" 10.0% 10.-41'-I 7.9 .. 9"" 10.,,. 11.2Yt 8.7% 12.5% 59 47 45 66 68 : 52 59 68 74 57 83 S27.07 S27.22 $28.88 S31 85 S33.90 1 S33.16 S35.09 S33.90 $32.99 $29.78 528 55 27" 0.6" 6.1. 10.~ 6."' ! 5.8" .J.'" -2"' 5.2" ,.,. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ■Ocaon5id~ ■Corl,bod 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 •Oceans+de ■Catllbod THE CONCORD GROUP tt•m #2 P11• ll2 of 173 DRAFT 0 ll .... ... ~ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 North County Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) $33.6 Y/Y%Change Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y%Change ~ , Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y% Change SanMan::os Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y% Change ~-Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y% Change Viliii' $37.3 $33.8 $33.2 $31.5 $32.2 $31.6 $29.3 S27.9 S29.7 $29.7 $30.1 $31.9 S32.1 $32.3 S33.2 $32.5 -6.3% 2.2% -1.7% -7.6% -4.7% 6.5% 0.1% 1.1% 6.1% 0.7% 0.5% 2.9% -2.0% $36.2 $37.0 $37.8 $25.8 $28.9 $37.7 $37.5 538.9 $39.5 $37.4 S37.9 $43.7 $41 .5 -3.0% 2.1% 2.2% -31.7% 12.1% 30.3% -0.6% 3.7% 1.5% -5.2% 1.2% 15.4% -5.0% $30.4 S30.8 S26.4 $29.5 $23.2 $24.5 $26.3 $26.7 $26.7 $27.7 $28.4 $32.9 $31.8 -10.1% 1.5% -14.4% 11.8% -21.2% 5.3% 7.5% 1.4% .0.1% 3.9% 2.6% 15.8% -3.3% $29.9 $30.0 $29.5 $27.3 $28.0 $29.4 S29.4 $30.0 $28.0 $28.8 S31.3 $30.8 $26.4 -9.9% 0.2% -1.8% -7.3% 2.3% 5.2% -0.1% 2.1% -6.8% 2.9% 8.9% -1.7% -14.3% Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $34.3 $33.3 $33.6 $30.3 S28.8 $27.9 $28.1 $25.4 $26.4 $27.1 $27.2 $28.9 $31.9 $33.9 Y/Y % Change -· -2.7% 0.8% -9.8% -4.8% -3.1% 0.8% -9.9% 3.9% 2.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.3% 6.4% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change ~ Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y%Change Sovth Bt1ach Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y%Change Gross Rent Direct IS/SF) Y/Y% Change !!~~ .,,-$40 - $ $35 ~ $30 ~ $25 i5 $20 $25.9 $23.6 -8.9% $41.0 $41.8 2.0% $27.6 $27.6 0.0% $22.2 S25.0 $22.1 $23.1 -5.9% 12.5% -11.7% 4.4% $40.4 $41.7 $27.1 $21.0 -3.5% 3.2% -34.9% -22.6% $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% $42.0 $42.0 0.0% ::::» -~ $21.4 $26.4 $35.0 $38.8 $33.5 $28.5 -7.3% 23.5% 32.6% 10.8% -13.6% $37.1 $41.1 $33.8 $43.3 $47.3 $50.3 j 76.4% 11.0% -17.9% 9.2% 6.3%: I 526.0 0.0% $32.1 I I ... I I I $29.4 ... ! Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Medical Quartertr_ 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql $33.5 $34.3 $32.5 $33.3 2.5% -5.2% 2.2% S44.0 $43.4 $41.5 $42.8 -1.3% -4.4% 3.1% $32.3 $32.0 $31.8 $30.8 -1.0% .0.7% -3.2% $31.0 $31.1 $26.4 $28.0 0.4% -15.2% 6.1% $33.2 $35.1 S33.9 S33.0 5.8% -3.4% -2.7% $33.5 $52.8 $50.3 $50.3 $50.3 j -4.7% 0.0% 0.0%: I $30.0 $30.0 $32.1 $33.0 : 0.0% 6.8% 3.0% I I I $29.4 S29.4 ·--~ 0.0% Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr $32.4 $30.9 1.6% 0.6% $40.0 $36.9 1.3% 1.9% $29.5 $27.8 3.6% 3.8% $29.1 $28.9 -2.5% -2.2% $29.8 $28.6 5.2% 2.3% $33.6 $28.6 $47.0 $37.6 8.3% 3.8% $32.1 $27.5 4.2% $29.4 $29.4 il $15 +-----~-----~----~----~-----~----~----~-----~----~----~-----~----~------, c:; 2008 ;; 3 ~ Ji ~ ... .... '" Q. .... ... '" 2012 -North County -Carlsbad Oceanside 2016 -San Marcos $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent IS/SF) $45 - -$40 ---------J-.--------...,, ----...... ~ I "' , -;; $35 ~-...--r--... I \ ' ,, ------........ ~ $30 --t \ ~;::---,,-, i / ------.--. -_, ·'= $25 ----_ _ _ -----_ ---,,. _ --C --1-----\ ------..,:-r ----_ -il $20 / \ "' $15 ij 2008 2012 --Village --Olde Carlsbad ::,ource: \..OSTor ' 2016 South Beach ' \ \ 21091.00 Office Trends . Medical: Rents Page 3 af 4 87 Encinitas \ \ ' ' ' '),. , -~ r J. I -Industrial Corridor 2020 Vista ..,.-------- \, \ 2020 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... ·" "' 0 "' "' ;;' 3 .. "' ":I .. .. .... ~ g, .... " ..., EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 200B THROUGH 2021 Medical Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 8 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021Q42022 Ql 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vaca-ncy Y/Y% Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y/Y % Change 12.1% 14.4% 13.6% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.7% 9.7% 8.3% 19.0% -5.6% 2.9% -7.1% 0.0% -2.3% -23.6% -14.4% 16.5% 14.6% 14.8% 11.5% 8.7% 19.0% 17.1% 8.4% 6.0% -11.5% 1.4% -22.3% -24.3% 118.4% -10.0% -50.9% -28.6% 8.3% 0.0% 6.1% 1.7% t I 7.6% 6.5% 9.4% 9.4% : 9.5% 10.1% 9.4% 9.4% : -8.4% -14.5% 44.6% 0.0% : 6.3% -6.9% 0.0% : I t 5.5% 4.6% 8.4% 8.0% : 9.2% 7.0% 8.0% 10.5% : -9.8% -16.4% 82.6% -4.8% I -23.9% 14.3% 31.3% ! I 8.2% 2.5% 6.5% 5.9% 9.8% -7.7% 9.2% -7.0% Vacancy 25.0% 28.1% 23.6% 21.2% 13.8% 12.9% 13.6% 11.8% 5.4% -13.2% 11.8% 7.2% 9.1 % 7.0% 9.8% 5.9% 1.2% 4.3% 5.9% 8.3% l 1.8% 10.3% Y/Y % Change 12.4% -16.0% -10.2% -34.9% -6.5% 0.0% -39.0% 26.4% -23.1% 40.0% -39.8% -40.3% 37.2% 40.7% I -12.9% -22.6% SanMan:as Vacancy Y/Y% Change p,aqltm Vacancy Y/Y% Change Vl#a Vacancy Y/Y % Change Village Vacancy Y/Y % Change J;;iij/jAJJ"Ci... Vacancy Y/Y % Change South Beach Vacancy Y/Y % Change Vacancy Y/Y% Change 9.7% 19.1% 16.7% 20.1% 18.7% 17.3% 15.3% 15.0% 10.0% 11.6% 9.3% 5.8% 7.3% 96.9% -12.6% 20.4% -7.0% -7.5% -11.6% -2.0% -33.3% 16.0% -19.8% -37.6% 25.9% 16.9% 25.6% 21.7% 20.0% 22.3% 21.2% 20.5% 8.5% 9.6% 9.0% 7.1% 6.8% 10.0% 51.5% -15.2% -7.8% 11.5% -4.9% -3.3% -58.5% 12.9% -6.3% -21.1% -4.2% 47.1% 4.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 8.8% 2.1% 3.5% 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% -37.8% -46.4% 0.0% 73.3% 11.5% -3.4% 214.3% -76.1% 66.7% -100.0% 100.0% 44.7% 33.5% 22.8% 15.1% 4.0% 13.1% 13.0% 5.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.0% -25.1% -31.9% -33.8% -73.5% 227.5% -0.8% -58.5% -100.0% 135.0% 2.1% -100.0% 18.1% 8.3% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -54.1% -27.7% -16.7% -100.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% -66.4% 30.0% --------------------------Historical Vacancy (%) l " ~ ~ C 8 ~ l £ ~ >-V C 8 ~ --------...,__ 25.0% -------=---:;;-:-... ""-- 20.0% ~-------------.::::;;::: 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2008 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2008 -North County -Codsbad ----------... --,, -..___ ✓ 2012 ' ',: ' ' Oceanside Historical Vacancy (%) 2016 -SanMocros ..,_ -: : ~ J~--::. =-: :: :. ~ ~ :_:_-_-:.,.._-_-_ .. _-_-_-=---;-~-::~=-=_:._:.:__-_::_-:::_-::._._ '-' 2012 _ -Village -Old Codsbod 2016 South Beach 7.5% 2.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 6.7% 10.4% 7.9% 4.0% 3.6% 2.1% -21.7% 0.9% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% -Encinitas -1.3% -2.6% -10.7% 9.0% 10.4% 13.9% 15.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.0% 71.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 1.8% 5.8% 0.0% 222.2% 0.0% 0.0% ,,._ ., ' .,, .... 11.2% 7.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 4.0% -31.0% 0.0% 2020 V,sto ., .... T '- 8.3% 11 .8% -5.6% -17.9% 8.7% 12.5% 1.6% -1 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 11.4% 19.1% 2.5% 4.8% -43.1% 1.2% 0.9% 3.0% 11.6% 16.6% -100.0% _, ... --~✓----~-~---_ .... = ........ ---:-~ 2020 --Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends -Medical: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 88 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2 0 fl O FFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Industrial " SELECT SUBMARKETS ~ 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual I Quarterty I Averages MarketFactor(SF} 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 : 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022Ql : 5-Yr 10.Yr ... ----------------------c,----,--,: ---__,j: _-_-_-__ Inventory SF (RSA, 000s) 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 71 71 71 71 68 68 68 I 68 68 68 68 I 69 72 Not Doliver;es O O O O O O O .7 0 0 0 .3 0 0 : -· 0 0 0 : -1 -1 Net Abso,ption O O O O -7 0 0 0 0 0 .3 0 0 0 I O O O I -1 -1 Total Vacancy Raio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 1.0% 3.2% Vacant SF O O O O 7 7 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 0 : 1 3 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) -· $9.96 --••. I •·· I $9.96 % Chango Cldo. c-liii,/ Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 j 6 6 6 6 i ---6~--6 Not Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O : 0 0 Nol Absorption O O O O O O O O O O O O O O : 0 0 0 I O 0 Totol Vacancy Role 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% Vacant SF O O O O O O O O O O O O O O : 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --I •·· I % Change Souths.och -c- Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 532 532 532 532 532 532 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 j 378 378 378 378 378 408 Net Doliver;e, 0 0 0 0 0 0 -154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I O O O O -15 NetAbsorption 6 •6 4 -4 6 5 -158 -6 9 0 -3 1 -8 ·4 : 8 0 0 -1 -15 Total Vacancy Role 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% I 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% Vacant SF 5 11 7 11 5 0 3 9 0 0 3 2 10 6 : 14 6 6 6 4 4 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $18.00 $14.40 $15.09 $15.44 $15.22 $16.52 $17.88 $20.97 $13.93 $19.80 $17.54 $22.20 $17.43 $22.54 I 520.39 $12.74 $22.54 522.54 $19.90 $18.40 %Change 1.9% -20.0% 4.8% 2.3% -1.4% 8.5% 8.2% 17.3% -33.6% 42.1% -11.4% 26.6% -21.5% 29.3% I -37.5% 76.9% 0.0% 10.1% 3.9% I "Qi..,'"'»iiti°'" .----------------~-------------------------------------,i Inventory SF [RSA, OOOs) 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,915 I 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,868 2,862 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O 59 I O O O 12 6 NetAbsorption -177 -3 71 54 -17 29 60 -46 -26 -9 -214 169 -11 283 : 20 192 3 44 · 22 Total Vacancy Rate 11.8% 11.9% 9.4% 7.5% 8.1% 7.1% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 7.8% 15.3% 9.4% 9.8% 1.9% I 9.2% 8.5% 1.9% 1.8% 8.8% 7.9% Vacant SF 337 340 268 214 231 203 143 188 214 223 437 268 280 55 I 268 248 55 52 253 224 GrossRentDirect(S/SF) $12.29 $11.32 $11.17 $10.92 Sl0.29 $10.27 $9.82 $12.38 $12.76 $12.58 $13.16 $13.65 $14.59 $14.77 : $14.74 $14.77 $14.77 $16.33 1 $13.75 $12.43 %Change -5.0% -7.9% -1.3% -2.2% -5.8% -0.2% -4.4% 26.1% 3.1% -1.4% 4.6% 3.7% 6.9% 1.2% I -· 0.2% 0.0% 10.6% I 3.0% 3.1% 100 ~-----------------------------Net Deliveries 50 l o 1 -50 ~ -100 , CT v, • 150 -200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village 400 Net Absorption 300 ;g 200 ~ i 100 ~ ~ 0 g -100 -0 CT ~ v, -200 ~ -300 2. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ;:;:! South Beoch ■ lndustrk)I Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village 21091.00 Office Trends· Industrial, Performance (Sub) Pag•ah ol 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Morbl Fodor [SF) Mti◄, lnvenl«y Sf (RBA., OOOs) Net Deliveries Ne!Abtorption Total Vacancy Rote Voconl SF Orott: R.nt Dir.cl (S/Sf) "Ch~ ln..,entoey SF jR8"-OCI05j N.tDelr<'eriM N•Alnofption Total Vocc,nq, Rot• Voconl SF Gron Rent Direct IS/Sf) "Change lrwenloey SF IRBA. 000.1 N-, OelW•iM N• Ab.o,plion Total Vacancy RoMI Voconi SF Gr01s Rent Dir.ct ($/Sf) "Ct,ong. ...,_ ln ... ...-.tort SF (RBA, 000s) NIii Oel!'lleriM N., Absorption Totol Voconcy Rot. Vocont Sf Grot,1 Rent DirKI ($/SF) "Chor,oti ln..,entory Sf IRBA. 000s1 N• Oeli..,.,.iu N• Ab.orption T otol VocOf'IC)' Rote Voconl SF Gron Rent Oir•ct jS/SF) 1'Ch~ -Inventory SF jlUlA, 000IJ Neto.&,,•iel NeitAbsorption TotolVocon<yRote Vocont SF GroH Rent Oired ($/Sf) "ChCJnQti 2008 54,170 53,978 .C9,969 7.-4" 4,009 $10.50 7,287 30 -176 10.4" 7S6 $11 82 -11" 7,909 -12 171 10,71' 8'6 $9.52 o.5" 8,227 0 ·263 9.0!1 7'0 $9 73 0.5% 176 -16 -16 0.0!1 0 2009 54,382 212 .J,000 9,6,. 5,221 S9.39 -10.61, 7,287 0 .s, 11.l" 809 $10.76 -9.0% 8,130 ??2 -249 16.21' 1,317 $8 47 -11.0'I 9.61' 792 176 0 -13 13 $15.00 2010 54,596 21S ,12 9.2" 5,0'13 $9 23 _,,,. 7,287 0 146 9.1" 663 $10.62 ., :a 8.184 S4 4 16.7" 1,367 $7.89 -6.R 8,200 ... 1 9 I" 7'6 $8 92 -60% 2011 54,550 _., 67 9.0!1 -4,909 $693 ..3.3" 7,287 0 -160 11,~ 623 $10.01 -5.i"l, 8,18-4 0 166 14.4" 1,179 $7.91 0.3" 8, 12:6 _,. -108 9.6" 760 SB 69 -2.6" 2012 54,67' 12S SSl 8.2 .. ,, .. 83 S8.97 0.4'4 7,287 0 S8 10.5" 76S $9.39 -6,2" S,18-4 0 106 13.11' 1,072 $7.7-4 -2.J" 8,126 0 9.5" 772 $8.98 J.3" 0.0!1 0 $22.08 2013 S-4,862 187 '46 7.71, 4,22' $9.19 ,.,. 7,324 37 143 90,0 659 $9.70 J.3" e.1e4 0 49 12.5% 1,023 S7.97 3.0% 8,126 0 S7 ..... 71S $9.27 J 2" 0.0,0 0 EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 20U 2015 54,945 55,004 63 S9 1,011 771 6.0% A 7'4 3,297 2,585 $9,65 $10.0◄ SO% 4.0% 7,169 -154 -76 • 1" S81 $9 79 0.9" 8,157 -27 213 9.6% 763 $8,35 , .... 8,126 0 136 7.1% sn 1.9" 7,244 ,. ... 9.7 .. 703 Sl0.93 11.6% 8,214 S7 467 A.3" 3S3 S8.43 1.0% 7,981 -145 2S <07 S9.72 2.9" 176 0 0 0.0!1 2016 55,590 586 892 "" '1,179 $10.72 6.8'1 7,101 ,143 27 7.5" 533 $12.31 12.6" 8,9S7 743 661 21S $9,23 9,5" 7,971 -10 .113 6-""' SIO $9.16 -5.8" 176 0 0,0,0 2017 55,86-4 27' 9S , ... " 2,458 S11.09 3.5" 7,313 212 20, 7.4% S41 Sll.86 ..37'1 8,957 0 -81 3.3" 296 $10.42 12,9'1, 7,961 -10 .,s 6.6" S2S $10 30 176 0 0 0.0!1 0 2018 57,613 1,7.49 808 5.9" 3,399 $11.90 7.3" 8,407 1,094 26S 16.3" 1,370 $12.68 6.9" 9,082 1?S 39 361 $10 89 4.5" 8,183 ?22 166 7.1 .. S81 S1 L57 12.3" 176 0 0 0,0,0 0 2019 .58,256 6'3 81 6.8'1 3,961 $12.17 2.3" 8,611 20, 463 1,111 Sl2.90 I,,,. 9,360 ?78 27S ,. '" 38' $10.98 08'1 8,183 0 -96 8.3" 679 $11.84 2.3" 176 0 0 0.0!1 0 2020 S9,000 "' 1,461 ,.,. 3,245 $12.77 , .... 8,661 so 29S 866 9,360 0 112 2.,. "' SI 1.73 6.8'1 8,201 19 -16 6 7" 714 $12.01 1.4%. 176 0 0 0,0!1 0 2021 j 2021 Q2 I 59,056 I 59,068 SSI 1,706 : 2.7" I 4.7" 1,595: 2,116 $12.97 I $12.72 1.6'4 I I 8,720 I S9 I 74d 2.1"1 183: $14 23 I ,.~: I 9,360 I 0: 8A I 2.0%: 187 I $12.33 I 5.1 .. : I I 8,2031 1: 272 I 5.4": -443 I $12.24 : 1.9'i1 I I 176: 0 I o I o.°" j 0 I I ···, -· I 8,720 10.0% 872 $14 62 9,360 3 '" 316 $11.98 8,211 5.5" '52 $11.96 176 0.0!1 0 2021 QJ 2021 a .. 59,060 -6 266 4 2" 2,-481 S12.7-4 0.2" 8,720 0 ?01 7 7" 671 SU.35 ·'·" 9,360 0 7S 243 $12.08 0.,. 8,203 -8 -40 S.9" Sl2.06 0.8'1 176 0 0 0,0,0 59,056 -S 681 "" 1,595 $12.97 1.8'1 8,720 0 466 2., .. 183 $14.23 _,,_.,. 9,360 0 S6 2.0,0 187 S 12.33 2.1" 8,203 0 ,1 5.4'1 4'3 $12 2' 1.5'1 176 0 0 0.0!1 0 Industrial 2022 Ql j I 59,056 I 0 I 0 I 2.7% : ,//;2s ! 1.9" : 8,720 I o I 0 : 2.1" I 183 I $14 52 : 2.0'I : I 9,360 I 0 : .9 I 2.1" I 197 I $12.59 I 2.1" : I I 8,203 I 0 : -6 ,.,. 451 $12 83 4,8'1 176 0 0 0.0!1 57.958 56,-466 693 "451 830 782 5.1" 5 6" 2,932 3,153 $12.18 $10.95 3.~ 3.ft 8,343 324 39, 9,7" 614 S13.14 2.9" 9,224 80 66 3.3" 304 Sl 1.27 6.0% 8,1-46 A6 60 7.2" S88 SI 1.59 6.0% 176 0 0 0,0,0 0 7,78" 143 207 9.4" 731 Sl 1.78 36" 8,782 118 217 S.6" 497 $9 81 ·~ 8,106 • " 7 3" .. , S10 45 .. ,. 176 0 0 0.0!1 0 $2208 --~~----------------------!::::::========:::::::::: ... , ... , ---: ···I ···I ···1 _1 ! ... , ... , I ••• 1 ••• I I I ·•• I I ! 1,200 ~------------------------~tAbaorption __________________________________ _, 1,000 i 800 .! 600 ! 1 400 200 -200 -400 -600 .J..._ ______________________________________________________________ __, 2006 ?009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Encinitas Son Mo<ro.s •Corl.bod 1,600 ~-------------------------NetO.IIW.rie1 _________________________________ ~ f 1.200 11,000 ! X eoo 600 400 ?00 So..otce· Co&or ?008 2009 21091.00 Offic• Tr-,,ds · Industrial Perfonnonc• (Crty) Oct.17,20:U 2010 2011 2012 Vista •Encinito1 2013 Son Morcos Pag.2of4 .. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 • Corl.bod THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 fl :" "' § i; 3 "' "' 'Zl .. .. .... .... .... 2. .... .... w Market Factor North Covnly Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct (S/SFJ Y/Y% Change Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y% Change SanMarr:<n Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change y-,...,_ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y/Y%Change ~ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y!Y%Change Savlh Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y!Y%Change fcmtcw'-----:J Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) Y!Y %Change EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual 2008 2009 201 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $10.5 $9.4 $9.2 $8.9 -10.6% -1.7% -3.3% $11.8 $10.8 $10.6 $10.0 -9.0% -1.3% -5.7% $9.5 $8.5 S7.9 $7.9 -11.0% -6.8% 0.3% $9.7 $9.5 $8.9 $8.7 -2.5% -6.0% -2.6% $15.0 $14.0 -6.4% $18.0 $14.4 $15.1 $15.4 -20.0% 4.8% 2.3% $12.3 S 11.3 $11.2 $10.9 -7.9% -1.3% -2.2% $9.0 0.4% $9,4 -6.2% $7.7 -2.1% $9.0 3.3% $22.l $10.0 $15.2 -1.4% $10.3 -5.8% $9.2 2.5% $9.7 3.3% $8.0 3.0% S9.3 3.2% $16.5 8.5% $10.3 -0.2% $9.7 5.0% $9.8 0.9% $8.4 4.8% $9.5 1.9% $17.9 8.2% $9.8 -4.4% $10.0 $10.7 $11.1 $11.9 $12.2 4.0% 6.8% 3.5% 7.3% 2.3% $10.9 $12.3 S 11.9 $12.7 $12.9 11.6% 12.6% -3.7% 6.9% 1.7% $8.4 $9.2 $10.4 $10.9 $11.0 1.0% 9.5% 12.9% 4.5% 0.8% $9.7 $9.2 $10.3 $11.6 $11.8 2.9% -5.8% 12.4% 12.3% 2.3% $21.0 $13.9 $19.8 $17.5 $22.2 17.3% -33.6% 42.1% -11.4% 26.6% $12.4 $12.8 $1 2.6 $13.2 $13.7 26.1% 3.1% -1.4% 4.6% 3.7% $50 ~------------------------Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $45 -c-$40 S $35 ~ $30 °li $25 i:5 $20 ~ $15 "' 2008 = $50 $45 -c-$40 >-:g $35 ~ $30 _j $25 C c $20 0 ':; $15 2008 s ~urce: 1....0Stor -North County --r-- --Village 2012 -Carlsbad 2012 --Olde Carlsbad Oceanside 1016 -Son Morcos Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) 2016 South Beach 21091.00 Office Trends -Industrial: Rents Page 3 ol 4 91 2020 2021 $12.8 $13.0 4.9% 1.6% $14.1 $14.2 8.9% 1.3% S11.7 $12.3 6.8% 5.1% $12.0 $12.2 1.4% 1.9% $17.4 s22.5 I -21.5% 29.3% I I t $14.6 $14.8 : 6.9% 1.2% I Industrial Qua rterl_r 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ------------ $12.7 $12.7 $13.0 0.2% 1.8% $14.6 $14.4 $14.2 -1.8% -0.8% $12.0 $12.1 $12.3 0.8% 2.1% $12.0 $12.1 $12.2 0.8% 1.5% $20.4 $12.7 $22.5 -37.5% 76.9% $14.7 $14.8 $14.8 0.2% 0.0% Encinitas --Industrial Corridor $13.2 1.9% $14.5 2.0% $12.6 2.1% $12.8 4.8% ---I ---t I ! s22.5 I 0.0% I I I $16.3 : 10.6% I 2020 Vista 2020 Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr $12.2 $10.9 3.9% 7.8% $13.1 $11.8 2.9% 7.3% $11.3 $9.8 6.0% 9.3% $11.6 $10.5 6.0% 7.1% $22.1 $10.0 $19.9 $18.4 10.1% 7.9% $13.8 $12.4 3.0% 6.2% THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT ~ .... :,.J ::,: ~ I. 3 " "' .,, .. ~ .... .... 00 a .... .... "' EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE -VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Industrial Quarterly_ Market Fedor . ----· 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average 5-Yr 10-Yr North Covnly Vacancy Y/Y% Change Carlsbad Vacancy Y/Y%Change ~ Vacancy Y/Y%Change ---------------------------------- 7.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 6.0% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 5.9% 6.8% 5.5% 2.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.7% 29.7% -4.2% -2.2% -8.9% -6.1% -22.1% -21.7% -12.8% 7.3% 34.1% 15.3% -19.1% -50.9% -10.6% -35. 7% 10.4% 11.1% 9.1% 11.3% 10.5% 9.0% 8.1% 9.7% 7.5% 7.4% 16.3% 12.9% 10.0% 2.1% 10.0% 7.7% 2.1% 6.7% -18.0% 24.2% -7.1% -1 4.3% -10.0% 19.8% -22.7% -1.3% 120.3% -20.9% -22.5% -79.0% -23.0% -72.7% 10.7% 16.2% 16.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 9.6% 4.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 51.4% 3.1% -13.8% -9.0% -4.6% -23.2% -55.2% -44.2% 37.5% 27.3% -2.4% -29.3% -31.0% -23.5% -23.1 % San Marcos Vacancy Y/Y % Change 9.0% 9.6% 6.7% 9.1% -5.2% 9.6% 9.5% 5.5% -1.0% 8.8% 7.1% 5.1% -7.4% -19.3% -28.2% 6.4% 25.5% 6.6% 3.1% 7.1% 7.6% 8.3% 16.9% 8.7% 5.4% : 5.5% 4.8% -37.9% 5.9% 5.4% 7.3% -8.5% ,cinit~ Vacancy Y/Y% Change J,'ida Vacancy Y/Y% Change Village Vacancy Y/Y % Change ~ Vacancy Y/Y% Change Sovth &ach Vacancy Y/Y% Change fii,/iiit,'ii,/Comj Vacancy Y/Y% Change 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 133.3% -33.3% 11.8% 11.9% 9.4% 0.8% -21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0% 50.0% -52.4% -100.0% 166.7% -100.0% 7.5% 8.1% 7.1% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% -20.2% 8.0% -12.3% -29.6% 32.0% 13.6% 20.0% .--------------------------Historical Vacancy(%) ~ .!! ~ ~ C 8 ~ 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -l"l,......~--- 200a -North County 2012 -Cod,bod Oceanside 20.0% Historical Vacancy (%) 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% -33.3% 15.3% 9.4% 96.2% -38.6% 2016 -Son Macros 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 333.3% 9.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% -38.5% -57.9% 0.0% 1.9% 9.2% 8.5% 1.9% -80.6% -7.6% -77.6% -Encinitas , .... 2.7% 0.0% 5.1% 5.6% -8.0% -21.4% 2.1%1 9.7% 9.4% 0.0% ! -22.5% -28.6% 2.1% 5.0% 5.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 1.8% -5.3% 2020 Vista 3.3% 5.8% -3.6% -32.6% 7.2% 7.3% -3.3% -10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% -5.3% 8.8% 7.9% -24.0% -24.0% ~ 0 ~ ~ 10.0% 5.0% ---------------.. ----,,, ------_:. : : : : _--... ... --------------., --., , ~ ------ ,,, ---·-~"1r- ... ... C a V ~ ~ --o~ r --------------~~-' . ~ -7 --=-~-~ -------2008 I :a • _,.. ____ -,._ ---1 I ""f l 2012 --Village -Old Corl.bod 2016 --South Beach --Industrial Corridor 2020 21091.00 Office Trends -Industrial: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 92 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ~ ..... ,-..J N 0 N N ;::. (D 3 :ii: N " "' O'Q (D ..... ..... \D Q., ..... -..J OJ EXHIBIT 11-2 OFFICE DEMAND SAN DIEGO COUNTY 2020 THROUGH 2029 I Demond f1om Net New Jobs. (Key Indus.try Segrnent<,) Key Industry Segments Office Area Per Job (Net} I-') Annual New Jobs (OOOs] jl} % Office Perm. Pre-Post-Potential Net New Office Demond -Square Feet (OOOs) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 ~ %WFH P)COV1D-19COVID-19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Corporate Finance and inwrance -0.6 -1 .8 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 90.0% 225 248 -96 -283 •3 32 .39 -20 69 139 152 161 Real estate and rental and leasing -1.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 -0.l 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 89.0% 250 275 -289 112 207 33 .7 -12 21 50 52 50 Management of companiei and enterprises -0.3 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.l -0.1 -0. l 92.0% 305 336 .73 121 144 .35 .50 -44 .35 -24 -24 -25 Legal services -0.3 0.1 .0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0% 335 369 -71 33 -16 -114 -88 -68 .55 -48 -42 -40 Acd, tax prep, and payroll services -1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 .0.1 .0.1 0.0 0.0 88.0% 255 281 -21" 30 27 -40 -28 -19 -U -11 -8 -8 Administrative and wppot1 '81'Vioes -5.3 0.6 0.7 -0.1 0.8 1.8 1.7 l.4 1.4 1.4 92.0% 285 31" -1,060 113 133 -26 153 368 339 276 278 274 Mgmt, scienlific, and technical conwlting urvice -0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 90.0% 305 336 .73 .45 121 -23 9 36 52 58 M 60 ~ -9.9 0.1 3.5 -0.7 -0.3 1 .. 2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 89.9'11, 15.0% 280 10.0% -1,877 8 1 659 -173 -51 2•1 378 441 471 473 Technology Architectural; engineering; and r.,joted services 0.3 2.2 0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 .Q.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 83.0'II, 175 193 34 229 75 -67 -46 -28 -18 -13 -8 .9 Computer systems design ond related services 0.1 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 88.0% 155 171 12 -16 54 -15 2 17 25 28 31 29 Software publi~en 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0% 165 182 29 -4 21 15 10 6 3 3 2 0 Doto processing; hosting and related setVices 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 86.0% 205 226 9 72 36 18 15 12 11 12 11 11 $pedolized design services .0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.0% 300 330 .34 5 9 -8 .5 .3 -1 -1 0 0 Other professional; scientific; and technical MM -0.9 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0% 300 330 -171 -45 17 -20 -10 -3 2 4 6 5 Other information se<Vices -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 86.0% 300 330 -34 46 56 36 35 34 34 35 35 35 Totals: -0.5 2.6 2.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 86.4'11, 20.0% 229 10.0% -156 286 269 •• 1 2 35 56 68 77 71 Media Advertising; public relations; and related servicer .0.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.0% 315 347 -147 -50 14 -23 -17 -13 -10 -9 -8 -7 Newspaper; periodical; book; ond directory pub 0.0 .0.1 .0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 88.0% 365 402 -10 -25 -21 -34 -32 -30 -27 -23 -21 -18 Motion pidure and sound recording indudries -1.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0% 375 413 -230 -39 39 3 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 Broodcosting (except inlet""nei) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 86.0'II, 325 358 -36 1 12 -10 -12 -14 -14 -13 -12 -12 T elecommunicctions .Q.4 .0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 .0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0% 365 402 -101 -50 -6 -40 -45 -49 ,48 -43 -40 -39 Promoters of performing ar1s; 'P0f11; ond &imilar .Q.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0% 375 413 -24 4 36 24 21 16 10 7 6 5 AgenlsandmgrsfOfortists;athletes;entertainen 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 86.0% 325 358 6 11 15 11 10 8 6 Tolal,c -2.• -0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.• -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 86.4'11, 18.0% 349 10.0% -5•1 -U7 88 -69 -H -83 -8• -78 .72 -69 Flex Scientific research and devdopmenl seMces Worehou&ing and doroge Religious; gronlmaking; civic; prof; and similar c Totol1: (I) Sau«e, Moody', Economy pnsnon) (2)13) Pee TCG p,aj«"an 0.7 3.7 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.0% 275 303 80 431 183 -81 -46 -18 -1 7 13 11 .0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.0% 400 440 .34 18 37 22 16 16 17 17 16 16 -3.3 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 50.0% 225 248 .314 58 147 49 32 40 -14 -20 -17 -15 -2.8 •.• 3.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 50.0'II, 5.0% 300 10.0% -268 508 367 -10 2 39 3 3 12 12 TotalNetNewOfficeOemand: ~ 727 1,383 -293 -122 232 353 434 486 488 (4) Pre-COVIDl 9 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Worl<place Slandords Benchmark. Ull, and Cushman & Wakefield; pod-COVlD19 office oreo per job assumed to be 10% larger due to tNI effed1 oi de-den&ification and social distancing 21690.00 Office Demond: OfficeDemond.Model THE CONCORD GROUP 93 DRAFT 0 ~ I-' _...., II Demand from Turnove1 Ob5ooleHence and Redevelopmenl EXHIBIT 11-2 OFFICE DEMAND SAN DIEGO COUNTY 2020 THROUGH 2029 Percent Office Current Annual Office Obsol. N 0 N N K!( lndust!}: S!iments Total Empl~ent (OOOsl !1! Office Area (Net) Potential Office Demand ~ S9uare Feet (000,,} 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 ~p., Job Pl Pool (thsJ Raio 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Finance and insurance 45.8 43.9 44.2 44.4 44.2 44.0 44.5 ,45..4 46.4 47.A 90.()'l(, 248 10,195 76 74 77 77 76 76 77 78 78 78 Real estate and r&ntol and leosing 28.5 29.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.8 31.l 31.4 89.()'l(, 275 6,968 so SJ 54 SJ 52 S2 52 SJ SJ 53 Monogement of companies and enterprises 23.S 24, l 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.l 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6 92.()'l(, 336 7,254 S4 ss ss 54 S4 54 54 54 S4 S4 legal services 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.-4 11.2 11.0 10.9 88.()'l(, 369 4,148 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 Ac.oovnting; tax preparation; bookkeeping; and I 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 88.()'l(, 281 2,010 13 15 lS 15 15 15 15 15 15 lS Administrolive and wpport seNices 77.7 78.3 78.9 78.8 79.6 au 83.l 84.S 85.8 87.2 92.()'l(, 314 22,411 160 169 169 168 169 171 171 170 170 170 Management; scientific; and ledmicol conwlting 22.7 22.5 23.l 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.3 90.()'l(, 336 6,861 SI 51 52 51 S2 S2 52 52 52 52 Architedurol; engineering; and related seMces 24.2 26.4 27.1 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.A 25.3 83.()'l(, 193 3,863 29 31 30 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 Compute,-sydems de-sign and r9'ated services 2S.6 25.4 26.0 2S.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.S 26.9 27.2 88.()'l(, 171 3,837 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Software publishers 5.5 5.4 S.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 87.()'l(, 182 866 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Doto processing; hosting and related services 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 86.()'l(, 226 542 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Specialized design services 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 88.()'l(, 330 S66 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Other profeuionol; scientific; and technicol ,ervi 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 87.()'l(, 330 2,067 14 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 Othef" information services 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 86.()'l(, 330 521 4 4 4 4 4 4 Advertising; public rdotions; ond r~ated service! 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 83.()'l(, 347 991 6 7 8 7 7 7 Newspaper; penodicol; book; ond directory pub 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 I.I 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 88.()'l(, 402 607 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Motion pidure ond sound re(O(ding industries 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 87.()'l(, 413 428 I 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Broadcasting (except internet) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.S 2.4 2.4 2.3 86.()'l(, 358 817 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 T ~ecommunications 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 88.0'W, 402 2,267 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Promofen of performing arts; sports; and similar o.s 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 I.I I.I 87.()'l(, 413 194 I I 2 2 2 2 2 2 I 1 Agents ond monogers for or1ists; othle!es; enler1< 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 o.s 0.5 0.5 o.s 0.5 86.0'W> 3S8 62 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 0 0 0 Scientific reseord, ond development U:Mces 36.3 40.0 41.5 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6 50.()'l(, 303 S,493 42 44 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 Warehousing ond slOl'"oge 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 50.()'l(, 440 47S 3 4 • 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 R:~iaious; aranlmokina; civic; e!:ofessionolt ond 18.9 19.5 21.l 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.6 SO.()')(, 248 ---2d£_ ___ 15 18 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 Totol Key lndudriu 362 368 377 376 375 377 379 381 384 387 ;::. Cl) 3 =II: N -0 QJ OQ Cl) I-' N 0 ~ ..... ...., IJJ (1) Soo,co, Moody's Economy (1/25/2022) (2H3) P..-TCG p,aiedion I I I 83.1% 316 85,787 0.75% Projected SD Coun~ Demond [OOOs): Carlsbad Capture: 17% OMA. Demand (OOOs): 1 OY Cumulative County Demand: 1 OY Averaa• Annual Coun~ Demand: Cor~te S!:Sment IOY CumulatNe Demond: I OY Average Annual Demond: Technol~l 1 OY Cumulom'e Demond: JOYAve-rogeAnnual Demond: Media 1 OY Cumulative Demond: JOY A~rage Annual Demond: Rex S!Sment JOY Cumulative Demond: JOY A~roge Annual CAmand: 622 649 654 641 642 645 646 I ~If••, -ml· '. im-:Mi•'--· -·g .. ~ .. ~~I!'; •• 'm -377 234 346 59 88 149 170 7,~;~i -1,.u2 531 1,113 274 397 692 830 5,136 514 70')(, -65 380 363 51 94 127 149 1,591 159 22'1> -505 -108 129 -29 -35 ... . .. -734 -73 .J()'l(, -208 574 432 52 64 101 65 1,296 130 1811, (4) Pre-COVIDl9 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Workplace Standards Benchmark, ULI, and Cushman & Wokefi~d; post-COVID19 office areo per job assumed lo be 10% larger due ta the effects of de-den&ification ond social distancing 21690.00 Office Demond: OfficeDemond.Model 94 647 647 647 .·J,j!!I · !,IB• · ·1,m 1 184 193 193 893 923 925j 161 169 164 -38 -32 -29 66 75 75j THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ...... ~uts and Assumptions: ,~rage Annual Net Office Demond (lOY): I 728,998 SF N 0 I II ~ture Metrics: GaW.I Vista II Current Households ('21) 44,107 37,935 Shore of North County 10.5% 9.1% Projected HH Growth ('21-'26) 216 269 Shore of North County 8.8% 10.9% Closs A Office Inventory RBA (000,) 2,244 55 Shore of North County I ---20.3% 0.5% Recent Housing Growth (2011-'21) 2,321 2,190 Shore of North County 9.3% 8.8% Employment r21) --80,858 -46,014 Shore of North County i --17.0% ~ 9.7% Future Apartment Supply -CoStor 132 400 Shore of North County 0.5% 1.6% Future Office Supply -CoStor 50,000 0 Share of North County 0.3% 0.0% Imputed Capture Maximum Implied 20.3% 10.9% Average 9.5% 5.8% I TCG Concluded Capture 17.0%1 6.0% Annual Net SF Demanded 123,930 43,740 ijurces: ESRI, US Census (American Foctfinder & Center for Economic Studies), CoStor 3 # N ""O DJ OQ rt> ~ N ~ 0 ...., ~ -...J w 21690.00 Office Demond: Office-Capture EXHIBIT 11-3 OFFICE DEMAND -SUBMARKET CAPTURE SCENARIOS NORTH COUNTY 2021 THROUGH 2030 Solano Beach II SanMarcos 1-1 Om■■ .... II Escondido l~I DelMs 5,549 34,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,160 1.3% 8.1% 3.9% 15.7% 13.7% 4.9% 1.4% 100.0% 11 310 24 339 264 69 7 2,465 0.4% 12.6% 1.0% 13.8% 10.7% 2.8% 0.3% 100.0% 212 432 163 256 274 0 0 11,068 -· 1.9% -3.9% -1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% -· -. - 101 3,999 150 3,110 1,779 733 56 24,862 0.4% 16.1% 0.6% 12.5% 7.2% 2.9% 0.2% 100.0% --9,543 35,599 28,091 47,933 -67,748 --27,162 8,651 475,097 2.0% . -7.5% -5.9% 10.1% 14.3% 5.7% -1.8% 100.0% 0 184 265 577 684 140 0 24,655 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0% 54,845 1,451,062 0 250,749 116,614 20,177 0 15,656,351 0.4% 9.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% -0 .1% 0.0% 100.0% - 2.0% 16.1% 5.9% 15.7% 14.3% 5.7% 1.8% 100.0% 0.9% 8.3% 2.0% 8.3% 7.4% 2.4% 0.5% 100.0% 1.0% 14.0% 4.0% 13.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% I 100.0%1 7,290 102,060 29,160 94,770 87,480 29,160 7,290 728,998: THE CONCORD GROUP 95 Q.8h£I_,Offlteaa:»p.nq,-c!Ati.orpcio11dKrffYII lal020, l.ClM,s A Offb cornplfltions pe.-t«i .a 2006 & 2007 ). CMll.bd OV.,,;al Office l'laoob •it row., thfft North Coullty ,__..,. C.Orhta.d"-t.ihfib-601'hich«rUMCIIM1WRf•r«.lll,enblllNonhCountylS-Y~) 0 ~-~•llE!_ Ojioo tt.ntory (Sf,OOOs) ~hCounty O ort.bod N "NorlnU>Unl), f:WComp8tiom Norih County Cott.bod "NotthCounty Occupancy Rote North County Cort,bod Net Ab6orphon !SF, OOOsl North County Cari.bod %NorthCOW1ty 0.-.roll Renb (NNN) North County Carlsbod vs. North County Office Ckiu A fn..,.ntory(SF,OOOs) North County Corisbod " Nonh County NetCompk,tiom North County Carlsbad " North County Occupancy Role North County Cortsbod Net Ab&orption ISf, OOOs) Norlh County Cort,bod "NorlhCwnty Overall Rents (NNN) North County Corb.bod vs.NOfth COWlty ~I '!!I"."'°" iSF,000.) ::tt,.North County r,..rorlabod "Nori/, U>Unl), Net ComPetion,s North C°'"'ty -lf••hbod QI " Nori/, U>Unl), O:cupancy Rote (t)North Coul\ty >-tort.bod ~ Abtorption (SF, OOOsJ "i.aonh County Q,:o,hbod ~~1~:~~~ VJ.bihCounty Carls.bod vs.NorlnCwnty Sourc.: CoStor QTO 2022 33,929 7,681 22.6" 88.7% 86.6% 110'1) 77 (15 5"1 $37.9 $32.7 (13,T"l 11,068 2,244 20.3" 87.2% 83.6% l"'I 1•1 3.1'1 $44.3 $34.l (23 I") 51,123 5,703 11.2% ?9 6 19.~ 94.2" 91.-4" 167 ? 1.3" $25.0 S,U .3 16.1" Annual A,,..!!!i!,. 5-Vr 10-Yr 15-Yr 33,360 7,535 22.6" 268 102 37.~ 88.8" 84.,% 238 150 29.8" $35.4 $31,2 (119") 10,664 2,117 19.99' 201 8 1 43.8% 87.1% 83.3" 187 91 16.7% 5'2.2 $32.8 (22.3"/ 50828 5623 JI.I" 139 ., 26.4" 95.3" 95.3" 1131 126) 32.5" $23 $36 59.~ 32,726 7,189 22.0.. ?21 98 33.51' 88.1" 83.8% 304 1?1 32.6" $32.5 $29.1 (IO '"I 10,259 1,930 16.8% 147 58 34.4" 88.0% 80.3" 151 66 24.2% $39.S $31.S (20 '"J 50370 5447 10.M. IA8 69 58.1'i 95.1" 96.2" 16' 37 311" sn $33 S1.2" 32,078 6,982 2 1.7% m 151 i;:- 28.~ e 81.3" 81.6% '18 139 52.0% $31.8 $28.7 (9.6") 9,855 1,825 16.5% 301 ~ 68 ... 27.6% !!!. .:I 86.2% '"' 76.1% 2n 67 21.3" $38 ... $31.4 111 .... , 49943 5263 10.5" 216 ., 46.4" [ ...... .:I 96.5% ..: 13, ,o 18.3" sn $32 46."" 21690.00 Submorlc.i Hist0f9'01 P•f0fmonc.: Cor-hbod EXHIBITll-,C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE • COMMERCIAL. OFFICE & RETAIL CARLSBAD 1999 THROUGH 2022 1,=~--- 700 I -- 500 ,oo 300 I = --,_ / .... , ________ _ "-. ----------------~--------···-------. _________________ .-· .,,. """ .,,. 80% 100 I ■' M -... ,/ ■ ■ ■ E ■ ■ -· ________ .,,..... ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ W w ■ I 75" ~00 • -200 -L---------='--------------------------------------------------------'-70% 1999 2000 2001 100? 1003 1004 2005 ?006 2007 2008 1009 1010 2011 '2012 1013 101-4 1015 2016 1017 2018 1019 2020 2021 7022 ,oo ~---------------------------Office(CkiuA)------------------------------, IOOl' .,,. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 .50 ____ / __ .. ______________________________ .7,:·········, . ...,\ \ \ .. ,_ .... ..,, ........ · """ 85" 80% "" 70% ---------------t 65" .Joo~------------------------------------------------------------~ 6"" 1999 2000 2001 7001 1003 200A 2005 1006 2007 2008 100'1 1010 2011 2012 2013 201-4 '2015 2016 2017 2018 101• 1020 2021 101'2 250 11:•kJil 100% .... :. ....... :: +I-----_--_--_--___ ~·---------! 100 - .,,. 50 -Ab.o,plion Deliveries ----·°"""""" -Abiotption Delivenft -·---• Ckcuponcy 90% -Ah5orpfton .50 -100 -150 -200 85" -O.iverie, ----·O«upon<y -250 ~------------------------------------------------------------~ 80% 2006 2001 2000 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 201, 2015 2016 2017 '2018 2019 2020 20'11 20'12 ... 95"9 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT ll-4C l Oter1110ffiu, °'5.s A Office and lti,t,I~~ illOtrHmide llrt io-t.llM UII! Non.ti COUii.,_ Affl'IC._ HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE· COMMERCIAL· OFFICE & RETAIL OCEANSIDE 1999 THROUGH 2022 0 QTO Annual Aw~ ..JJi U.. TIE! 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr 0,-300 Offko """' tt.4'i:nk>ry fSF ,000.) ~County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 250 .... 1,961 1,855 1,805 1,718 ----------N '3'Northux,,nty , .... 5.6" 5.5% 5.3'< 200 I 9s" fWComplt,lions 150 ------------------------·-----................. ·------- North C01,1nty 0 268 227 .,, Oceanaide 0 36 27 •8 0:-100 -" North County -3.2'1 8.4" 11.51' ~ ~ Occupancy Rate ~ so Nonh County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7"' 87.3" .: ,., -.. 0 85" Oc.onJide 93.7% 92.4% 89.7" 87.-'" pon<y Net Ab&o,ption (SF, 000.) .50 ---·--Nortn County (1021 238 30• '18 ·100 ---____ .,.. f= Oceont.ide 120, 52 ,s •• -- " North Covn,y 19.3" AS.~ 11. '" 91.1" .,so O...ran Renh jNNN) Notth County 537.9 $35.4 $32.5 S31.8 ·200 75" Oceon,ide $26.8 $25.3 $2.4.0 $25.1 , ... 2000 2001 2002 2003 200< 2005 2006 2007 2006 2009 2010 2011 1017 2013 201' 2015 7016 1017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 vs. Norlh County /29.3'<} /286"1 [25.9"/ (20.5o/,) Office Clou A ln ..... ntory (SF,OOOst 1'0 Office {CkmAJ 100% North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 120 ,----~--------------ex-,..., 256 205 188 164 95" %NotthC01.#'1ty 2.31< 1.9" 1.811 1.6% 100 ------------11 -.. --~-Net Completiom /,,,,.---·\\\ . ,,/ : ··--·--...... ,:;; ... /----NMh County 0 207 1'7 301 80 ----r-----Oceon.;de 0 17 9 17 0:-85% " NOtfh County 4.l'o/, 2.31< 5.9" ,e. 6() ~ -1\btorption Occupancy Rak ~ 80% North County 87.2% 87.1'4 88.0% 86.2% 1111: 40 '----------~---....... _/.:-Del1Yerin °"""'"'"' 97.2" 90.5% 86.1" 20 ,So/, ···•·O«vpooq Net Abl.orption (SF. OOOl) NOfth County (l,U) 187 151 292 0 70% °'""""'"' 0 25 " 16 "'Norlh County 0.0% 3.0% 6.1" , .... -20 65% Overall Rents (NNN) Noc-th County $.4'.3 U2.2 SJ9.5 $38.A -<0 """ Oceans.de S32.2 $29.8 $28.9 $30,0 , ... ,ooo 2001 2002 2003 1004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ,011 201' 1013 20U 1015 2016 2017 2018 ,019 7020 2021 ,02, w.. North County /27 2"/ /29.3"} (26.6"J f2l.2"/ R~I 250 Reta.I 100% '!ll'°"'°" (Sf,000.1 $orthCounty 51,123 50828 50370 -499'3 200 eonsidti 2,396 2385 2379 2365 " North UXA"lty ,.,,. ,.,,. .. ,,. 4.7" ,so I f 95" Net Compl,ations Nor1h County 29 139 1'8 216 -&'-""'"' 2 5 3 7 ~I -=~~;,,. ~ .. --······••'•ii'·········-·-..... ________ .......• -•·''~~,-·-······=··-·········· ...::= ___________ I: o, '-Norlh Cotrity 5.4" 3.3" 0.2'1 3.0% [:;] b cuponcy Ito~ 94.2% 95.3"' [ l'DNorth County 9S.11', 9 ..... ~ . ~eonJid. 8-4.7% 88.7% 89.0% 88.8% .,_ I WWW ■ ·•·········~ O«vpooq ~bwrl)flOn (SF, 000.) hC-1y 167 1131 , .. 13' 4 ----~ .... (7/ 12•1 (61 1•1 -100 j-j "NorthC~ ,. "'' 0.8% , .... r2,,;1 Qw:roll Rents (NNN) -150 -tJ.>.h-th County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Oceanside s2,.s $21 $20 $21 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 vs. North UM"lty (0.91i} (6.511/ rs '"l (J.7'!11 Source: CoSfor 21690.00 ~kef HtftOficol P•fOfmonce: Oc.eonticl• ... rfr' 9 THE CONCORD GROUI' DRAFT EXHIBIT 11-4C l,Off'a.-dlletMIOcolP111Y.,.t~!l.i.duq111e,.,,.,,_.: ),Ol,,erllMd~AOffiuMldAetallrfllh.welllah~th.,.tlr••NOttb.COunt-, HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE -COMMERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL A..«,aplffllli ENCINITAS 0 1999 THROUGH 2022 ~ QID AnnuolA~roqe ~ Us• Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Offida to,yjSF,OCIOl) 150 ~-----------------------------Off'••------------------------------~ 1oo,; k!.~~h County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 s::itcn l,768 1,711 1,687 1,668 100 1 ---.•• __ --■ ~ 98" N "Nooh County S.3 5.1" 5.2% S.~ - Net CompetM>ns 50 North County O 268 227 -471 96" Encinilos O 17 13 14 tL" "North Cow,ty -33.5% 25.8" 17.S" !!?. O ,/ 1-Ab.ofption Occupancy Rote ~ ,/ 9'" NorthCounty 88.7" 88.8% 88.7% 87.3% °' -50 ,/ -Del,,ve,,ei Enrinitas 94.4" 95.5" 95.7" 94.7% ,/ n•••Occupoocy Net Al»orption jSf, OOOs) .·100 ,/ 92'% North County (102) 238 304 -4 18 / Encinitas (51 7 12 16 '. ____ .... •• I 90% "NonhC:-ly 5.2'< (l 8"J (6.5") ('2.,%) -150 ---•· - Overall Rents INNNJ North County S37.9 $35.4 $32.5 SJl.8 ·200 -'-------------------------------------------------------------...J 88" Encinitas $42.3 $40.5 $37.2 $35.5 1999 2000 2001 100'1 2003 200-4 2005 1006 1007 1008 2009 1010 2011 2012 2013 201-t 2015 2016 2017 ?018 2019 2020 2071 '2022 vs. Norin Cou,,ty 11 61' 1'.~ 14.5% J 1.8% Offic• Cbls 8 (Clon A Offic• Hot AYOiloble) lnYenlory(SF.OOOs) 1AO ~---------------------------Offic:e(C1ouB)-----------------------------~ 1oo,; Ho,th C01Jnty 18,2A8 18,065 17,802 17,SlJ 120 •-;:,:::;.._ I::' ;,::-;;:, ;:: •• 1--t l ~ Nel CornpJetions 80 °':~f ~;._,,, ~ .,_J 2 .. E ,._] I : -----f:] .1 \\_ __ •• ,,..·-------------····--..• _______________ •.. • ____________ ... -----------------,_______ ____ ______ ::: .... --.... ._.. .,.. -~ -,, . .... 1i ~/ _ 11 \ n ~ [! • 1/ 1 ■ .!I • L ■ 11 ---E E:". Ne::::-;;,..,n (Sf, 000.J 9'.2" 94.9" 95.3" 9,.2" 0 > .-' il7 \ ■ / -■-■ 92" I=;;:::.;::.,,, North County 18 59 142 133 -20 Encinitos O 8 11 15 -lO i -■ -I 90% "Norin County 0.0% JS.a% 16.6" 15.~ -60 Owroll R•nK (NNN) North County SJA.6 $31.9 SJ0.1 $29.6 -80 -'---------------------------------------------------------------'-88" Enanito$ $l2 5 $40,A $37.2 $35.6 1999 2000 ?001 1002 2000 200A 2005 2006 ?007 2008 1009 :N)IO '1011 1012 1013 '1014 2015 2010 2017 ?018 2019 2010 1011 2002 ;:::; vs. Norlh uwn1y 22.6% 26.8" 23.7'5 20.0% (1) R,!nlo1Y(Sf,OOOs) 250 Retail 1()0% ~County 51,123 50828 50370 l9943 ~nanilos 5,A18 5419 5462 5534 150 ----• \ •••• .------- Net c~:;:~;;;vr I0.6" 10.~ 10.8% I 1.1" ---··-\, -----·· --------. ______ ••• --··----·········----·----------. ·--------·---~ 98" ~ Coonty 29 139 148 216 50 '\ ·---··--·-··--· a,tncinilos 2 o (34J (151 '-___ _,..._..--J ...1.---~~-'--~ -..----mr -..--~•L-.-,------~-.r--,.....------f 96" O'Q "Notffl Cow,ty 5.'1i 0.6" 13.1'4 18.S" -Ab.or'pti011 &cuponcy Rate ; •50 -Oe,ivenet ~il;;'"ty :/::: :;·!: :~.!: ::·:: = -150 --------------•••• ------94" --·--C>ccupon,cy ~ Ab.orption (SF, 000.1 ~County 167 1)3) 164 134 ~ncinitos 7 j6) ( 16) I 18) -250 92% "'-I "Norlh C°""f '· '" (6. Ill/ (l.O'l) 1.2'< O.rull Rents (NNN) North Coonty S25.0 S23 S22 $22 -350 90% EnOl'litos $39.7 $30 S30 $29 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 vs. North COl.ln,Y 58.S" 32.2" 39.2" 31.1" Souru,; C~or 21690.00Submarlc• H1stoocof P«fcwrnonu. Encinitos Poge 3 of 9 THE COl'JCORD GROUP 98 DRAFT I. S.,. t.l«co, Offb Md lleul lfftl are~ llwoll tM North County ""'efillll 0 Qlt) AnnuolA,..~ ~lh•ln?_! 2022 ~----1.Q:!!_ ~ Otu-hoil,jtntory (Sf,OO(x► ~hC~nty 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 ,..,,,,. 1,727 1,723 1,678 1,61• N "NorthCounty S.I" S.1% S.I" '·"" 1W Co"'f>Mtiom North County 0 268 227 .,, San Morc01 0 IS 18 29 o::- %North County 13.8" 20.3" 15.2% ~ Occupancy RaM :. North County 88.7'1 888" 88.7" 87.3% .: San MorCOI 91.8% 92.5" 90.1" 88.•'-Net Ablorption (Sf, OOOs) Norlh County 11021 238 304 418 Son MorCOJ ,. 8 17 24 "No<1hC-., (13.6 .. ) (14.7 .. ) 118.2%) 17.1" O..roll Rents jNNN) North County $37.9 SJS.-4 $32.S $31.8 Son Mor(OI. S27.S S.27.4 $26.9 $27.A vs. NonhCouoty (27.S") 122.6") (16.6") (13.1") Offic:e ClonA ln-..ntory {Sf,OOOs) Nonh County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 Son Moree. 432 '32 '32 402 "Norlh County 3 9" ··'" •. ?% -U " Net Comp£etions North County 0 207 147 301 San Marco. 0 0 7 11 ~ "NorthC<>my o."" 8."" 6."" Occupancy Rote i North County 87.2"' 87.1% 88."" 86.2% ..: Son Mora. 92.1% 91.8% 91 2" 86.8% Net Abwrption (SF, 000&) North County jl-44) 187 ISi 292 Son Mora» 0 121 13 10 %North County o.°" (0 8") 10, '" 7.1% C>.-eroll Rents. (NNN) Nonh County $.t4.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4 Son Morcc;M. $33.5 $33.3 $32.2 $32.A ~I vs. North Covnty (2' 3") (21.1%) (181") (IS.I") ~nlo,y iSF,000.) ~Nortt!Coonty 51,123 50828 50370 49943 n Wiorcos A,676 4670 4638 4647 %NorlhC01.1n1y 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.3" Net Completion, No,d, County 29 139 148 216 ,:;§anMotCc;M. 2 9 JI 10 a, % Not1h uwrlry 6.1% 4.8" (2."") (14 9'.J b.cuponcy Rote "' l't)North Coi.inry 94.2% 953% 95.1% 94.9% ~ I---ISon Morcc;M. 90.1% 92.1% 92.7% 93.0% ot. ~orption (SF, OOOs) County 167 113) 164 134 ~nMora. 39 1'21 1•1 113) ~ 9'Not1hCovnty 23.3" (IS.8") (3.5'1) 43.6% ~roll Rents (NNN) W-lorth County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Sot'IMorco. $20.0 $16 $17 $19 vs. North County 120. I") (304") (21 ""J 113 S"J Sour.:.: CoSfar 21690.00 Submork• Hi..tOficol P...-formonce: Son Mofeo5 250 :,00 150 100 50 0 • 50 .,oo -150 .:,oo 120 100 80 60 ,0 20 0 ·20 •40 250 200 150 100 50 0 .50 .,oo ·150 EXHIBIT )l.4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. COMMERCIAL. OFFICE & RETAIL SAN MARCOS 1999 THROUGH 2022 .------------------------------Dffi<•-------------------------------, 100% .... 96 .. 94" ···--·----------.=:::::..~~-·---·--········-····· \ ..... -·• ........... ---_ --· =~ -b;;; _.,_, ____________ . __ .. --·--··-······ 1m 2000 1001 2002 1000 200A 1oos 2006 1001 2oos 1009 2010 1011 2012 2013 201, 2015 2016 2011 1018 2019 2010 2021 1022 ~------,----------------------Olfi<o{ClouA)-----------------------------, \\_/---__ /\ ... ····-·-·· ........ -/····-····--·-· .. . --... ·-... ______ ~-------·--········· ··--... .. ,. .. ,. .,,. 8"" 100% 95" - 85" 8"" 75" -'--------------------------------------------------------------'-7°" 1999 2000 2001 200'2 1003 1004 1005 2006 2007 2008 1009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20?0 2021 201? Retoil JOO% 98" --------- ··-·-·--·--...•.•. _ ....•. -----------.......... . 96" -194" ·-.......... -··-······-. ___ ·--.,. 91% ~-- -.-.~plion DeHveties ····•O<a,ponq ~ ~ .200 -'--------------------------------------------------------------'-88" 2006 1007 2008 2009 2010 20JJ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Pogmf'9 THE CONCORD GROUP Q8Af .J ....... _ .... __ , .. ,_, 2. 0...-.. Md OniA OffQ 111d mill RMIU .,. io.,er th•n th• wet"·• ~b 1ft Non.ti c...,., 0 ~UseT.il?!.. Otll,,o rw.ntory (Sf,000.) ',.t'<-'hc-ntv i::Y"'o N "Nortl,c_,,., ..-comp&etiom North County Vido " Nonh Coun,Y Occupancy Rote North County Vista Net Ablo,plion jSf, OOOs) No,tt,County Vista " Norlh County C>Yeroll Rentl {NNN) North County Voto vs. North County Office Closs A Inventory (Sf,000.) North Cwnty Vista "North County Net Completions North County Voto 1'NOrlhCounty Occupancy Rate NonhCounty v .. o Net Abt.orption (SF, 000.1 North County v. .. " North County 0..roll Renk (NNNJ North County Volo YS. Notth Coun,y ~I ~"'°"' (Sf,000.) ~orth County iv"'" "NonhCounly Net Competioni North CO\.lnty -;ff"'~ Noni, Counly SAcupc:mcy Rote ll>No,tn County !-¾"mo ~ At.orption !Sf, 000s) U Norfh County ~sto t;.r!,7.:~ l.l.North County Vista YS. North C-ounty Source: CoSlo, QTD Annual A,..roge 2022 ~---1.2..:!!....~ 33,929 1,773 5.2" 88.7% 83.0% (102) 0 O.°" $37.9 S27.2 (28.2',) 11,068 55 0.51' 87.2% 87.6" (14') 0 o.°" SA-4.3 $38.1 (13.9!<) 51,123 5,256 10.3% 29 6 21.-"' 9•.2% 92.8% 167 (10) {6."") $25.0 SIS.9 {2'-6") 33,360 1,773 53" 268 2 25" 88.8% 85.4% 238 (121 112.,,., $35.4 S23.2 '"' 5") 10,664 55 0.5% 207 0 ··"" 87.1% 82_9% 187 0 1.1" $42.2 $36.4 (13.8") 50828 5240 10.3% 139 (3) fl.9") 95.3% 94.7% 113) {IA) (2 .... ) $23 SIB (20.9"') 32,726 1,765 s.," 227 2 1.4% 88.7" 84.8% 30A (0) 1.6" $31.5 S'21.7 (291") 10,259 55 05" w 0 o."" 88."" 83.8% 151 101 0.1" $39.5 $34.5 (121") 50370 52-'6 ,o.," 1•8 10) 0.9" 95.1% 93.8" 164 1 0.8" $22 $17 (20 8") 32,078 1,7,'7 S.S .. "' 12 c 2.~ e :I 87.J" ac 84.9% ,18 12) (43.3") $31.8 $23.6 (25.2") 9,855 55 0.6% 301 0 C o.~ ~ 86.2% 85.5% 292 IOI (0."") $38.4 S34.4 {10 .... } .C9943 5219 10.5% 216 16 4.5"' : [ ::.~ i 13' 9 65.6" $22 SIB (20"") 21690.00 Submatli:.t Hisloocal Pwformonao: Vista EXHIBIT 11-•C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE -COMMERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL VISTA 1999 THROUGH 2022 200 Office ______________________________ _ '°"" ' -150 100 50 "•·--... ; ·•-.,•···/" ...... __ i ·--.... __ \ - \ -\ = :: -.::::.______ /// "• . ···cc::::: ---. ~ 82" 8"" -50 -100 1999 2000 2001 2002 1003 2004 '2005 2006 2007 2006 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 201, 1015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 201'1 10 ~---------------------~-----Offi«i(CkinA) lOO'!r. .2 _, .,,. 1---------... I LI . ■ □ li 185" \ ti .... r, M :· & •,. H ~"" N >' I ,, . • • . · - 8"" -6 +-------75" -8 -10 .,_ ____________________________________________________________ _,_ '°" 1"99 2000 2001 2002 2003 200, 2005 2006 2007 2008 '1009 2010 ?011 2012 2013 701' 201S 7016 2017 '21)18 7019 7020 2021 7021 = -'°"" 200 150 100 50 -50 -100 98" .. ----······1 96" I l-g -.. • -• !d:--u ---... I .... • I 1 • __ .... • • • ·::C1 w = -150 90% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 C;] . ""' -Ab5orpti0fl [)e,fteriet ----·Occupancy ~ fl 0<a,pon<y P""1'M 9 TI-iE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT l. No mail u d d.Ki A off a CMtiYtflfs in 1¥.t 10 rn. Z.tf1&h-.al.wi~lqffQOWlpM<y 0 n ,.. Loi:f Use Type Dito Y/'\""'°'l' {SF,000.) cforhbod ;;::))Ide Corls.bod N "Corl:Jbod Net Completiom North County OtdeCarhbod "North County Occuponcy Rote North County OtdeCorh.bad Ne! Ahlorption (SF. 000.) Corkbod Olde Carlsbad "Carlsbad Overoll Renh !NNN) Corhbod Olde Corhbod vs. Corlsbod QTD 2022 7,681 160 2.11' 86.6% 96.5" 77 • S.8" $32.7 $32.5 !06") Annuol A.,.roge ~ ---1.Q:!!,_ ~ 7,535 7,189 6,982 160 160 160 2. "' 2.2" 2.3" 102 98 151 0 0 2 c;;:-- 0.0,. 0.0% 0.3" !!!.. SA.4% 83.8% 81,6% = 97.6" 95.A" 91.2" 1~ 127 139 (1) 1 1 9.1% 6.4". 8.0% $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 $34.7 $29.0 $29.8 "·"" (16"'} 3.4% Office Ckns 8 (Clou A Office Not Available) lnwinlory (Sf,OOOs) Corl.bod 5,080 Cloe Corhbod 81 "Carlsbad 1.6% Net Comp&efiom North County Okie Carlsbad " Norlh County Occupancy Ro~ North County 0$de Carlsbod Net Abiorption (SF, 000s) Corl,bod Okie Carlsbad "Corlsbod C>Yerall Rents jNNN) Carlsbad Old.Corl.bod ;::; YS. Co,-/sbod R ct)il , ... ntory (Sf.000.J :111:orl,bod ""oioeccuiJbod "Carlsbad Net Completioru ~c:~~ OQ "NorthCoc.tty &cuponq, lot. HJorthCounty "btd.combod Ne\ Abaorption (SF, 00()$1 Qfcukbod ..,Plde Corishod -..J "Carlsbad 0...rall l•nts (NNN) Corl.bod Olde Corkbod vs.Corlsbod Source: CoStor 0 0 87.6% 95.7% 66 ' 6.6" $32.2 $30.5 (S.1"1 5,703 1,629 28.6% 6 0 0.0% 91.-4% 89.°"- 2 0 o."" $44.3 5,0A9 81 L6" 21 0 0.0% SA.3% 97.6% 59 fl) ''°·""' $30.A $30.5 1.4" S623 1629 29.0% " 0 0.0% 95.3'ti 95 1% [26) (3') II.I" $36 $39 J.,4" A,896 81 L7% " 0 0.0% 8-4.5% 93.6% 62 0 !16.8") $28.0 $26.l !'8"1 5A-47 1629 30.°" 69 0 OJ)" 96.2'% 97.1% 37 (15) 15.8" $33 $27 112., .. , 21690.00 Submorlcet HiUoncol Perforr,-,c.e: Olde Corl.bod -4,791 81 1.7% 83 2 .. 0.5,_, " ~ 82.6" « 86.6% 1S 1 (111%) $27.5 $28.5 6,1" 5263 1629 31.1% 61 0 00% iii" 96.5% i 97.7" at ,o 1111 !16") $32 $27 '" ... , EXHIBIT ll-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE -COMMERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL OLDE CARLSBAD 1999 THROUGH 2022 2S j ~-~ • .......... --/-•. /• ft . -. /----•--•-._./·---------•----· "'••v·••--•· •-9S" -S -10 .,s -20 ,/ ·---------··-········-·--·-~- - 8S" - _,. '-------------------------------------------------------------~ 7S" I ... 7000 2001 2()()7 2003 7004 700> 7000 2007 1008 '2009 2010 101 l 2012 2013 201-1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2022 30 ~---------------------------Office (Clau.8) I~ 2S 20 1S 10 ...... -------·------. ---=---:-----~------.:_-------~ \\-. - \\ 1_...---_,..__..,. .. :::::7'··· ............ // ---- --~-.~ ~~ .. _ ..... -· .... -1 .... -.... 80% ,.,, '°" al • ■ ■ -■ •~ • l■ ■ ■ ■ • ■ ■ ■ • ■ 165% -S """ -10 '--------------------------------------------------------------' .... 1999 7000 2001 2002 2003 200< 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201'1 1020 2021 2022 200~ letaa 1Cl0% 1 SO ~-----------------------------····--···-·--··· ,.----·----------------------------------------·-_·----~-------------- 98" 100 so '\ \ 96" .-~---~-----t .... -so 92" -100 .,so - -200 '----------------------------------------------------------------' ~" 2006 2007 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201A 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ~ .. poncy -A~plion DeliYoriet ----·Occupancy [:;] . O«uponcy Poge 6 ol 9 THE CONCORD GROUP 101 DRAFT 1.0ffbr.nb1~1,iipt'-ltifMtlNIICNabid-fiP Retalrent11r.Wllf com,p,tre to '-'kb.Ml -•e. J. NO Ciftl A Offia AvilUtN la th& M«ut. l. H(Ch oMc.t Oa;7.ipay --t• R QTO Annual A,..rope LCW'li lh• Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr 0,- !'N.enlory (Sf,000.) ~~ rv "C-orlsbod -..completiom North County Soolh8-" "North Cof.#'dy Occupancy Rote North County -·-Net Absorption {SF, OCX>..) Corhbod Sooth·- " Cot-Jsbod Overall Rents (NNN) Corhbod South 8.och "'· Cor/sbod Office Clan B ln...nk>ry (SF,000.) Corlsbod Sooth 8,od, % Corfsbod Net Complefions North County South B.ad. "North COl.lf'lly Oc:cupancy Rote North County Sooth ·-Net A1-orption (SF, 000s} Cort,bod Sooth 8-" "Carlsbad Overall Rents (NNN) Corhbod South Beach 'IS. Carlsbad R.ijl ~nlo'Y (Sf,000.) :tif~'!'bod f",,.J'-":"h Beod, "Co,lsbad Net Completions NorlhCounty t°':N":::: C-.,,, IRcupancy Rote rt>Nortt, County -8,od, ~ At.orpfion {SF, 000s) ~offl.bod ~8,od, ~,:;/;=NN) I.J.t:orkbod Sou,h 8,od, vs.Corlsbod Source: Cc&ar 7,681 uo ,. ... 86.61' 98.2% 77 l 1.5% $31.7 $33.0 0.9" 5,080 1'0 2 .... 87.6" 98.2% 66 l 1.7% $32.2 $33.0 2.6% 5,703 327 5.7% 6 0 o."" 91.4% 97.1% 2 13) (131.3'1;) S-U.3 7,535 7,189 6,982 140 1'0 131 I.~ 2.0% J.~ 102 98 151 0 0 5 r.:-- 0. 0% 0.0% 4.6" !:'.?. B•.A% 83.8% 81.6% : 90.1% 90.0% 88.9% 150 1'27 139 2 2 5 /16.0!l/ t•.9"J fl '"I $3\.2 $29.1 $28.7 Ul.1 SJ2. I $29.7 26.6~ 11.~ 5.0,. 5,049 4,896 4,791 l ,40 UO 131 2.8% 2.9% 2.7"' 21 Al 83 0 0 5 ~ o.°" o.O'JI. s.7'% !!?... ~ 84.3% 84.5% 82.8" °' 90.1% 90.0"lii 88.9% 59 62 75 2 2 5 22.1" 14.2" 14.7'% $30.4 $28.0 $27 .5 $4.1.1 $32.1 $29.7 29.1% 16.6% 10.2% 5623 5-'47 5263 302 278 271 s., .. 5.1% s.," .. 69 6• ,. 7 5 16."' 8.1% 8.7% s. 95.3" 96.2" 96 ,,. .i 96 7% 97.7" 97.7% a.:: 126) 37 ,o 13 7 5 12.9% (6.5"1 6.7% $36 $33 $32 $29 $32 $32 (19.3'1;) (0.6"1 {l.""J 21690.00 Submork« Hi'10fiwl Perfarmonce: South Beoctt EXHIBIT ll-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE • COMMERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL SOUTH BEACH 1999 THROUGH 2022 100 .,. , OffKe ______________________________ _ = I /_/ \\ -----------------------------\ \\ ,.,.,·· \ 40 \,,,,.,.. \ 20 \ -20 _.., _.,, ..., \ ____________ _,/✓--,...-~--_"? ., .. ::_·-----, ... , __ ··----------... ---------7""":,, ______ J /- -100 ~=-=:---::--:-:--:-----:---------------------------------------------------1 ,... 1000 200\ 100'2 2003 100◄ 2005 2006 2007 1008 '2009 1010 1011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2017 W18 X>19 2010 202\ 2022 80 .. , Offiot (Oan 8)------------------------------ : 1 -------· \..... .----------------------/----\ 50 -\\,/ ... /_,·· \ 40 \ 30 \ 20 I 10 -~---· .... ,, ......... ,./ ___ .. , .. -- ! ------------------------·-... ___________ ------------------.__ .. 1' -.. _,.f-------l -10 , ___________________ •• "? -20 .L..---:---:-:-:-----------------------------------------------------------1 1999 1000 2001 2007 2003 20CM 1005 200o 2007 2008 ~ 1010 1011 2011 2:013 201~ 2:015 2016 2017 1018 7019 1010 1011 2:017 1ooi. 98% 96% 9,,. .,,. 90% 88% 86% .... 82" """ 1ooi. 9"" 96" 9,,. 92" 90% 88" 86% 84% 82" """ 80 Retoil 1Cl0% 70 60 50 ,o 30 ___ / ____ __,.---... _______ , _____________ ,,.-----------------------------------., _____________________ _ ·--------------.\ \\ __ ~ .. --------! ----------___ ... -------·-------9"" .... .... 20 10 .,,. 0 -10 2006 2007 2006 2009 ~------------------------------------------------------1 90% 2010 2011 2012 1013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20'21 20'22 _....,_, Del,.,.,-les ----·Occupancy -Abforption Qeljyeriti ---· C>a:upancy -Abtcwptton Delrleri6s ---·Occvponcy '""1'0219 THE CONCORD GROUP o R f1 i::r EXHIBIT ll-4C 1. A(ou!:;},L ol s A office ,_tor, ¥t loaled 11'1 lftMm.l COJI' !::ic:=-~~=i:::edm::a~.lld(l(\llocx,,, HISTORJCAL PERFORMANCE -COM.MERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL ...., INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH 1999 THROUGH 2022 ~ QTO Annual A,...mq• laM UH Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr ~ntoryjSf,OOOs) 400 ,------------------------------Offi<•------------------------------~· '°"" J oNbod 7.681 7,535 7,189 6,982 ac 3, .. ,s 3,-466 3 ... ,6 3, .. 21 300 ----------95" N "C.rl>bod 45.2" 46.°" 48. '" 49.2" n A.l Co~etions 200 90% North County O 102 98 151 IC O 10 5 27 L lOO ~k~... 85% "Norlh CocK,ty 5."" 3.5" 18.6" e r.: Occupancy Rote ;:!j O , 8()% Nortn County 86.6% 84.-4"-83.8'1. 81.6" 111: ... , M IC 83.9" 79.2% BO.A% 79.3% -100 \ 75" pancy Net Ab.orption (SF, 000.) \~ Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 -200 --\ -70% IC 73 19 17 25 "Co,hbod 95.0% 46.6" 56.1% (32.3") -300 65" 0-..roll 1!:enb !NHN) Carlsbad S-32.7 S31.2 S:29.1 S28.7 -400 °°" IC $32.9 $31.1 $29.3 $28.9 1999 2000 ?001 2002 7003 2004 ?005 1006 2007 2008 '1009 7010 1011 2011 2013 201-4 1015 2016 1017 1018 1019 1010 2021 ?022 "'· C01lsbod 0.6" !0-~) 0.9"' 0.8" Office Clou A ln.,..nlory(Sf,000,) 300 Offlc.(ClonA) 100% Caflsbod 2,244 2,117 1,930 1,825 IC 1,306 1,296 1,277 1,25-4 250 95,r, "Carlsbad 58.2% 61.~ 67.0% 69.6" Net C<,mpl,etians 200 .~----•••, .. ----·-·• 90% North County O 81 58 68 ',,, , ...... --\ IC O 10 5 2-4 Ci:" 150 ',, •••• --:. -~.---85% "NorthCoc.inry 10.6'-" 7.1" 37.~ ~ , •• --\ r. .,_ · Occupancy Rate ~ 100 \ ____ .... -....... • .... ---·-·-80% -phon North County 83.6" SJ.3,r, 80.3% 76.1% • --........ ····--···· ~iverie-s IC 80.0% 78.7~ 77.9% 75.~ 50 ----75" ···Occuponc.y Net Ab5orption !SF, OOOsl Carlsbad {A) 97 66 67 0 70% IC {A) 21 10 22 "Carlsbod 87.3% 68.~ (2.0'\} 6.S" -50 65" Overall kenb (NNN) Carl1bod $3-4.1 S32.8 S31.5 S31 -4 -100 60% IC $34.A S32.9 $31.9 $31.9 1999 1000 2001 100'2 1000 2004 2005 2006 '1007 2008 2009 1010 2011 201'2 2013 2014 2015 2016 1017 7018 ?019 2010 2021 2027 vs. Catl5bod 1.0% 0.5" 1.5" 1.7% ~ -~ntory ISf,OOOs) 20 100% :tt:..arlsbad 5,703 5623 5""7 5263 N.... 789 789 787 11, Is n .-------------·--" Corls.bacf 13.8" "·°" 1".544 1".711, · ____ ..... ·------.. ~ 98" Net Carnpfetions 10 •••• ---··-···-···-----·-···-·····--··· ·•····---·-·••-.•· -~-6 « H ~ ~c "NonhCounty o.O: o.~ 2.1~ 13.5; 5 96 " r.: D cuponcy Rate ~ l't>Nortn County 91 4" 95.3" 96.2% 96.5" i O 9-4" . J,,---k: 97.2% 97.9% 97.2% 96.9" • Occvpancy ~ Abtorptian jSF, C>005) .5 "to,~bod 1 11•1 31 ,o I • I Q\C ill IOI 3 ' -lo ..,,. ~ "Corlsbod f.CS.3"} S.l'rt 43.8" 45.5" ~roll Renh INNN) t.>-Carfsbac:f $-U.3 $36 $33 $32 •15 90% K" $42.0 $-43 $35 $34 2006 2007 2008 "2009 2010 2011 1012 2013 201-4 2015 2016 2017 2018 '2019 '2020 2021 2022 vs. Corl.bod (S. 1%) 18.°" 6. 7% 3. ~ Soufc.: CoStof 21690.00 Submcwkt11 Hi1t0ftwl P.-fcwmonc•: IC '""f03'9 THE CONCORD GR.Olli' DRAFT l.HflhOWr.11 itlld~tA DffluoctpMl<.'f,-1!1 l..Hoe\HJA.Oft.c.'°'1a.t,f,f 0 n QlO Annual A,,.~ .... \$ U.o Tl!!! 2022 ~___..!,Q::!!... _____ll:!t. Of!;d, E~·CXX>,' 7,681 7,535 A()A 396 N "Corl,l,od 5.3" 5.3" Net Completions NotthCounty 0 102 v.uo .. 0 A "N0<1h~ 28.5" Occupancy Rate North County 86.6 ... 84 . .4% v.uo .. 97.6% 96.7" Net Al.orption (Sf, 000.) Cati.bad 71 150 v.uo .. 3 5 "C.Ornbod 3.7% (13.2") Overall R•nb (NNN) Corl.bod S32.7 $31.2 v.uo .. $33.7 $31.6 ~ Carl,bod 3.l'J(, 1.6" Office Clan B (CDU A Office Not Availobl.J Inventory (SF ,000.) Corl.bod 5,080 5,049 V>, 2-43 235 "Carlsbad ,.8% 4.6% Net Completion, North County Villoge "-NorthCou,ty Occupancy Rate North County Vdto .. Net At-orption (Sf, OOOI) Corlsbod v.uo .. "Co,l,bod Overall Renh INNN) Carhbod -.. ;:; vs. Corlsbod R roil , .. ntory (Sf,000.) ~';:" "c.arnbod Net Completions _.t,k,tthCounty w1/llago 0Q "North Cow,ty &cuponcy Rate ......,.onh County w,,._ fit, Aboo,ption (SF, CXXk) ~orl,bod >-1''"--..J "Corlsbod CM.roll Renb iNNN) Cort.bod Vollago w Carl,bod Source! CoStor 0 21 0 A 38.0% 87.6% 8-4.3% 97.5" 97.0% 66 59 2 A 2.6% (269.2") S32.2 S30.4 S35.9 $30.8 11.6" 1.8" 5,703 5623 737 716 12.9" l2.7'i 6 .. 6 ' 100.0% A0.2" 91.4" 95.3"' 95.2% 95.9"' J26) 16 131 718.7% (6.05) S44.3 $36 $42.0 $35 (5 '"I (2.4"1 21690.00 Svbmork« Hi:lloncol P_,ormanc.e: Vilog• 7,189 6,982 395 397 5.5" 5.7% 98 151 I 0 ... 18.J" 10.9% ~ 83.8% ~ 81.6" at 95.8" 95.8% 127 139 0 I (IA.3") (2.7"j $29.1 $28.7 $28.5 $26] (2.1") (7.4'4) 4,896 4,791 229 226 A.7% A.)'% " 83 2 1 ... 23.6" 14.7% ~ ~ 84.5" 82.8" ai: 95.9" 96.2% 62 75 2 2 (138.8"/ (94.Al</ S28.0 S27.5 S28.2 526.8 0.8" (2.5"1 54A7 5263 708 699 13.°" 13.Jti 69 64 A ' 22.4" 15.6" ~ 96.'r.4 96.5" i 97.2"' 97.4" ai: 37 AO I 3 ,, "'l 16.2% $33 $32 $30 $27 (98'</ (IS 6"J EXHIBIT 11-,c HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE -COMMERCIAL. OFFICE & RETAIL VlLIAGE 1999 THROUGH 2022 20 ~-----------------------------Off~------------------------------~ """' 15 10 -5 -10 -15 .... . ... ..,. 92" -20 ~------------------------------------------------------------~ 905 1999 2000 2001 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 1014 2015 2016 2017 ?OHS 201? 2020 2021 2022 15 ~---------------------------OfficejOc.,8)------------------------------. 100" 10 .5 _____ ....... ~ ... \ '\. ..... \ \ \ ~.\ 17/ _//,,/' ·-..........• _____ . .,. ..... --·•' ·-··-----... ... .. ,-\\ 96" .. ,. 9,,. 92" 905 -10 ~------------------------------------------------------------~ 88" 19'99 2000 2001 """ 2003 2004 2005 '2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1019 2070 2021 2022 AO R•toil 100% 30 20 10 0 ______ ... --········· ····--··-----···--··-····~·-···· . .. .. -··----------.. \ · ... 98" 96" -10 .,,. -20 92" -30 -AO ~-------------------------------------------------------------'-905 2006 2001 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 ... 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -Abs«plion Oet;verin -·--•Occ.uponcy -Abwrption Ocliv9'"ia -···"'°""'""' -Abtorplion ~iveries ----"'°""'""' Pog•9 of9 THE CONCORD GROUP 104 DRAFT t.H.ho,,e,-.a--.dCb$$Aotfkeoc:c:Pll'l(Yrala l.HoelffsAOffict>..,1illble 0 n ,... AnnuolAVII~ LD~Us• Type QTO _2021 ~~___!!:!!...,_ ~ (Not Aviloble) ~nto,y ISf.000.1 cforhbod f'J,vio<o N "Corfsbod Net Completiom North County Avioro " Nooh County Occupancy Rote Norih County AYKll"o Net Absorption (SF, OOOs) Corkbod A-.ioco "Corlsbod Overall Renh !NNNJ Carls.bad Aviaro vs. Corltbod Retoil l11"'9ntory {SF-,OOOs) Corl.bod Avioto %Corlsbod Net Complefion, Noo1h COVT'lty Avioro % North County Occupancy Rokt Norlh County Avioro Net Ab.orption (SF, 000s) Cort.bod AYM>fa "Co,j,bod 0-V.roll Rents (NNN) Carlsbad A'AOro ;::; \IS. Corlsbod (I) ~CoS/a, :ii: N -0 QJ °" (I) ,.., w ,.., 0 ..... ,.., --.J w 7.681 7,535 102 86.6" 84.4% 77 150 S32.7 $31.2 5,703 5623 "' 1'7 2.6% 2.6" 6 ., 0 0 0.0ll O.Oll 91.4" 95.3" 98.0ll 95.7" 2 12•1 101 1 [168"/ (2.4%} u,.J $36 S47 33.5" 21690.00 SubtnoA• H1s.toricol P..fo,mar\ai. Aviora 7,189 6,982 98 151 ~ 83.s-4 ~ 81.6" °' 127 139 S29.l $28.7 5447 5263 "' "' 2.7" 28" •• •• 0 0 0.0.. 0.0.. 96.2' 96.5% ~ 9A.r4 95.7% ~ 37 ,o 0 0 ,,, .,.) (12.S"I $33 $32 ... $44 37.~ 39. '" EXHIBIT ll-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE -COMMERCIAL -OFFICE & RETAIL AVIARA 1999 THROUGH 2022 20 ~-----------------------------Offioo------------------------------, 100% 15 .. ,. 10 s 96" ~ 0 H -5 -.,,. pan<y -10 .,,. -15 -20 90'll 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 701~ 1016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 letoil 100% ~--,,----------', s .. ~~ .. _,, ... / _____ ■ .. ---···········-·------------.---.. -.~ 98" 6 --- ·, -· ---- 4 ', ', 2 ............ 96" 0 ---,-Am«-Detr'f'ene, ·2 -.. ,. ···•-O«vpo_n<y .. #·:.,_ .... ##,. .. _____ ,,,: ______ / --.,,. .. -----\:71 .. L - -10 -2006 2007 2006 2009 '2010 '2011 '201'2 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 P~l oll THE CONCORD GROUP I-LL <( a:: 0 Oct. 17, 2022 (/) ·-(/) >-.. -0 C <( >-.. +-·-C ::, IO t 0 .... 0 a. a. 0 -·-0 +-Q) ~ Item #2 Page 132 of 173 DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-1 RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE -SUMMARY 0 PRIMARY MARKET AREA ~ JANUARY 2022 ...., _-...J N 0 I J •?2if·'l lndu.irial N Geography --South Bead, Core/Kelly Ranch Aviora -.. , 1111-=fltt:ttllll Oceon,ide Vista San Morcos ' Encinilaa N Demographies Populotion ('21) 3,961 8,938 4,332 2,588 7,657 12,135 112,930 188,686 120,731 102,484 51,396 1,215,352 Households f2 l) 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,014 3,116 4,739 44,107 65,981 37,935 34,046 20,619 419,160 %Co,lsbod 4.4% 8.1% 4.0% 2.3% 7. 1% 10.7% 149.6% 86.0% 77.2% 46.7% % Norlh County 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 10.5% 15.7% 9.1% 8.1% 4.9% Ann. Growth f#, '21-'26) 139 34 15 5 106 28 1,081 1,697 1,345 1,552 345 12,326 %Carlsbad 12.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 9.8% 2.6% % North County 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 8.8% 13.8% 10.9% 12.6% 2.8% Ove, S 100K HH G<owth 11 28 14 (39) 22 27 517 2,020 1,016 546 87 7,950 Unde, S 100K HH G,owth 128 6 1 44 84 1 564 (323) 329 1,006 258 4,376 Ann. G<owth (%, '2 l-'26) 6.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 3.2% 0.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 1.6% 2.8% Household Size ('21) 2.06 2.50 2.44 2.55 2.46 2.56 2.56 2.86 3.18 3.01 2.49 2.90 Consumer Spending Patterns ('20) Consvmer Expenditures {SOOO} $66,040 S 177,425 $109,885 $68,015 $238,762 $294,469 $2,592,205 $2,551,752 $1,370,582 Sl,315,929 S 1,323,438 $21,328,924 Per Capito S 16,672 $19,851 $25,366 $26,281 $31,182 $24,266 $22,954 S 13,524 $11,352 $12,840 $25,750 $17,550 Retail Sales ($000) $139,407 $205,781 $187,487 $853,136 $60,017 $343,548 $2,513,665 $1,784,936 S 1,648,225 S 1,488,395 S 1,037,859 S 15,707,699 Per Occupied Square Foot $201 $142 $591 S 1,112 $412 $740 $482 $878 $337 $354 $197 $326 Spending Inflow/ (Leakage) $73,367 $28.356 $77,603 $785,121 ($178,744) $49,079 ($78,541) ($766.815) $277,643 S 172,466 ($285,578) fSS,621,224) Retail Market Performance (2021 Q4) R:entoble Building Areo {SF) 736,616 1,629,415 326,740 788,973 146,616 Annual Deliveries (SF) 475,283 5,703,192 2,396,334 5,255,683 4,676,042 5,418,108 51,123,475 lost Four Quarters 22,000 0 0 0 0 0 22,000 6,200 0 3,500 3,100 105,320 Five-Year Average 6,117 0 14,323 0 0 0 46,113 4,895 8,529 13,603 1,625 178,626 Tel"l6Year Average 5,595 0 7,161 582 0 20,064 70,303 2,862 7,343 11,598 3,349 241,299 Annual Net Absorption (SF) lost Four Oucrters 74,821 3,795 6,410 (6,052) (974) (1,880) (24,896) 3,203 (49,015) (148,200) 55,671 (157,029) Five-Year Average (383) (34,416) 13,681 907 434 (1,003) (25,901) (23,183) (17,573) (38,254) 5,069 (2,272) ;::;-T •~ Year Average 1,665 (15,381) 6,925 2,851 181 18,782 36,694 (6,566) 244 (8,124) (18,056) 156,447 (D Vacancy Rate 5.7% 11.0'll, 2.9% 2.8% 0.8% 2.3% 8.6% 15.2% 6.9% 10.2% 2.8% 5.7% 3 Vocont Stock (SF) 41,709 179,398 9,437 22,077 1,100 10,767 491,146 364,288 361,854 475,823 154,148 2,914,097 :it Asking Rent (NNN) $42.00 $39.00 $24.00 $42.00 $39.59 $28.00 $20.03 $20.46 $35.69 $25.35 N Rent Growth Five-Y eor Average 9.5% -10.6% 9.9% 3.3% 5.0% 4.0% 11.2% 1.7% 3.7% Ten-YeorAveroge 14.0% 9.1% 2.5% 3.5% 7.4% 3.3% -0.6% 8.3% 3.3% " "' OQ Cl> Source: ESRI; US Census; CoStar ...., (J.J (J.J 0 -...., -...J (J.J 21690.00 Retail T,end,c MktPerl Page 1 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n "" .... _-..J ~ent Inventory Growth ~urrent Inventory New Deliveries Since 2008 % of Current Inventory South Beach 736,616 1,629,415 326,740 67,806 0 71,614 9.21% 0.00% 21.92% EXHIBIT 111-1 RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE -INVENTORY PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2008 THROUGH 2021 Core/Kelly C:--uw I Aili Ranch Aviara 788,973 146,616 475,283 5,703,192 48,203 0 193,585 873,169 6.11% 0.00% 40.73% 15.31% Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas ;;;;au 2,396,334 5,255,683 4,676,042 5,418,108 51,123,475 74,995 191,914 -27,868 -231,860 2,360,530 3.13% 3.65% -0.60% -4.28% 4.62% 250,000 ,-----------------------------Retail• Net New Inventory Growth since 2008 --------------------------------------, "-!!!. < co "' ·;; ai "' ;::; Cl) 3 =# N "O Qj OQ Cl) .... w +:> 0 -.... -..J w 200,000 150,000 100,000 I 50,000 0 o' 1,oo'I> Source: CoStar 21690.00 Retail Trends: Inv "' 1,f:§)9 o' ■Carlsbad o' 1,0'0 o' 1,0'' o' 1,0'1, Oceanside o' 1,0'" ~o' 1,0' o' 1,0''> Vista Page 2 of 4 o' 1,0'-b o' 1,0'1 Son Marcos o' 1.o''I> o\ 'l-o'q o' 'l-01.0 Encinitas o' 'l-o'l-' THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ;'" .... ~-..J N 0 N N ;::;: ro 3 # N "'O OJ O'Q ro .... OJ V, 0 --+, .... -..J OJ 21690.00 Retail Trends: 0cc EXHIBIT 111-1 RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE -OCCUPANCY TRENDS PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2009 THROUGH 2021 Niorket Fodor Annual Annual Averoae : Qtr. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q!Z_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~: ~ North County 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y% Change Carlsbad 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y % Change Oceanside 0cc. Rate (T otaQ Y/Y%Change Visto 0cc. Rote (Total) Y/Y%Change San Marcos 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y%Change .Inc!!>ilai_ 0cc. Rate {Total) Y/Y%Change 0cc. Rate (T otaij Y/Y %Change 0cc. Rate. (Total) Y/Y%Change South Beach 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y % Change Industrial Care/kelly Ranch Occ~Rate (Total) Y/Y % Change Avioro 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y % Change ~--tti!.,-----~-~-- 0cc. Rate (Total) Y/Y%Change 93.5% 93.00(, -0.5% 95.9% 96.6% 0.7% 85.0% 86.8% 1.8% 94.7% 91.7% -3.00(, 92.6% 91.00(, -1.6% 93.8% 93.7% -0.1% 96.3% 98.6% 2.3% 98.8% 98.4% -0.4% 95.8% 98.9% 3.1% 95.8% 98.9% 3.1% 96.6% 96.6% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 93.6% 94.2% 94.5% 95.1% 95.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 96.7% 96.7% 97.0'l(, 95.9% 96.9% 0.1% 0.0'l(, 0.3% -1.1% 1.0'l(, 89.4% 89.5% 91.0'l(, 87.3% 87.4% 2.6% 0.1% 1.5% -3.7% 0.1% 93.0% 92.6% 91.8% 92.7% 92.9% 1.3% -0.4% -0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 92.8% 93.9% 91.2% 92.4% 93.5% 1.8% 1.1% -2.7% 1.2% 1.1% 94.8% 96.8% 97.6% 98.4% 98.1% 1.1% 2.0'l(, 0.8% 0.8% -0.3% 98.3% 97.7% 99.1% 98.8% 99.9% -0.3% -0.6% 1.4% -0.3% 1.1% 98.4% 98.5% 99.4% 99.3% 99.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% -0.1% -0.2% 98.9% 97.4% 98.0% 98.6% 99.1% 0.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 98.9% 97.4% 98.0% 98.6% 99.1% 0.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 94.5% 95.0% 95.6% 97.0% 97.4% -2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 100.0% 100.0'l(, 94.3% 100.0'l(, 100.0% 0.0% 0.0'l(, -5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 100% ~---------------------------Retail Occupancy 95.3% 96.2% 95.9% 95.9% 94.5% 94_00(, 95.3% 95.1%: 0.1% 0.9% -0.3% 0.0'l(, -1.4% -1.9% 97.8% 97.6% 97.5% 97.1% 92.3% 91.5% 95.2% 96.0% ~ 0.9% -0.2% -0.1% -0.4% -5.2% -5.6% 91.3% 91.1% 90.5% 88.8% 85.7% 85.6%: 88.3% 88.8%: 3.9% -0.2% -0.6% -1.7% -4.8% -3.2% 94.5% 95.5% 96.0'l(, 95.3% 94.1% 93.1% 94.8% 93.9%: 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% -0.7% -1.9% -2.2% ' 94.3% 96.4% 91.7% 90.9% 92.3% 89.2% 92.1% 92.6%: 0.8% 2.1% -4.7% -0.8% 0.6% -1.7% 96.9% 98.5% 97.6% 97.8% 96.5% 97.5% 97.6% 97.6%! -1.2% 1.6% -0.9% 0.2% -1.1% -0.3% 98.5% 98.5% 98.9% 97.2% 86.6% 94.2% 95.1% 96.9%: -1.4% 0.0% 0.4% -1.7% -12.3% -3.0% 99.6% 99.3% 99.4% 98.9% 88.8% 89.0% 95.1% 97.1%: 0.5% -0.3% 0.1% -0.5% -10.6% -9.9% 99.2% 98.2% 92.4% 96.1% 96.4% 98.4% 96.3% 97.4%: 0.1% -1.0% -5.8% 3.7% 4.0% 2.3% 99.2% 98.2% 92.4% 96.1% 96.4% 98.4% 96.3% 97.4%: 0.1% -1.0% -5.8% 3.7% 4.0% 2.3% 96.8% 97.3% 98.1% 98.7% 98.1% 97.4% 97.9% 97.1%; -0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% -1.3% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.2% 98.8% 99.6% 99.2%! -0.2% 0.2% 0.0'l(, 0.0% -0.8% -1.2% j ::===--..._ 95% ~ -<.rv--~~ . --~-~ ~ . ~ ---" /---,.,. --~~ -~_,,,e> -~ -=-~ C g_ § 0 0 l . ~ !:-C g_ , 90% -~--------=---""" ..... 85% +-~~~~~~- 2008 Ql 2009 Q l 2010 Ql 2011 QI -NorthCountv 201201 -Carlsbad 2013 Ql 2014 Q I Oceanside 2015Q1 2016Ql Vista 201701 201801 Son Morcos 201901 20200 1 2021 Ql -Encinaos I 00% _ ,,., Retail Occupancy _ _ .., _ _ _ --4',..,,..-.:::-.,: --,.~..__;:-r--.,::,~ .. --,~~-·-~~~,s,..--·-;-------,-7ff: = = -----=-=-". _-.,,..,.'".,-,... -_------4,.-.... ~-;. 95% ___j__ ----::. = ✓--, ,f '/ ' -., ,.. ;:, ~ --'""-..... ----, \., ;,_--T~ ~ -,, \ \ __ ,,, 90% I I / --,"'7---- 94.0'l(, 91.5% 85.6% 93.1% 89.2% 97.5% 94.2% 89.0'l(, 98.4% 98.4% 97.4% 98.8% 8 0 85% +-~~~~~~~--~~~~~~~~~---~~~~~~~~---~~~~~~-~--~~~~~~~~---~~~------1 0 l 2009Ql 2008QI 201001 ?011 Q1 ?Ol?Dl ?011Ql ?OUQl ?OJ.SDI ?011,QJ ?01701 --Village --Olde Carlsbad South Beach --Industrial Core/Kelly R.onch Aviora ?OlRDl --Poinsettia ?019Ql 202001 2021 Ql Source: CoStar Page 3of4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ~ I-' ~-..J N 0 N N ;:;: (1) 3 =1:1: N ""O QI ()'Q (1) I-' w °' 0 --+, I-' -..J w 21690.00 R.ioil Trends: Rent, EXHIBIT 111-1 RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE -RENT TRENDS PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2009 THROUGH 2021 Annual Market fadOI" Annual Avera&• Qt,. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5-Y, 10-Y, 4Q21 HtMINMB Rental Rote (NNN) $23.77 Y/Yll,Chonge l!!l!mc Ron!al Rate (NNN) $28.12 Y/Y'!t,Chonge Oceans.de ----Rental Rot• (NNN) $21.58 Y/Y'!(, Change v ..... ---Ron1,;ni;;i',jNN) $19.59 Y/Y%Chonge Son Morcos Rental Rate (NNN) $25.41 Y/Y%Chonge ·- &Ki,- Rental Rate (NNN) $25.83 Y/Yll, Change lliii Rental Raio (NNN) $20.77 Y/Y'!t,Chonge -- Rental Rote {NNN) $25.41 Y/Y'!t,Change South lloach Rental Raio (NNN) $18.00 Y/Y%Chonge l~ustrial C_o,o/Kol!r_ Ronch - Rental Rate (NNN) -$25.04 Y/Y%Chonge ·-Aviora Rental Rote (NNNJ $42.00 Y/Y%Chonge ·-i~-·----- Rental Rate (NNN) $33.00 Y/Y %Chonge ·- $55 $45 t $35 ~ j $25 i ~ $15 $5 2008QI 2009 QI 2010QI -NOfthCountv $22.42 -5.71' $33A8 19.1'1(, $20.72 .4_()'1(, $17.32 -11.6'1(, $23.06 -9.2'1(, $23.12 -10.5'1(, $20.54 -I.Ill, $25.23 -0,7'1(, $39.29 56.9'1(, $42.00 0.()'I(, $36.86 11.7% 2011 QI $22.12 $20.85 $20.40 -1.Jll, -5.7')1, -2.2')1, $31.68 $26.45 $25.08 -5.4'1(, -16.5'1(, -5.2'!(, $20.76 $19.10 $18.73 0.2% -8,()'I(, -1.9'1(, $16,44 $16.33 $15.88 -5,1'!(, -0,7'1(, -2.8'1(, $20.37 $20.12 $19.98 -11.7'1(, .J.2'1(, -0.7% $29.36 $28.89 $29.28 27.()'I(, -1.6'!(, 1.3'1(, $22.59 $22.16 $19,80 10,()'I(, -l.9% -10.6'1(, $21.96 $21.75 $21.73 -13.()'I(, .).()'I(, -0,J'I(, -· ·- $37.18 $22.80 $26.88 -5.4% -38.7'1(, 17.9% $42.00 $42.00 ·-0,()'I(, 0,()'I(, ·- $39.00 $38.52 5.8% 201201 -Ca~sbad 2013Q1 $21.18 $20.56 $20.63 $22.16 $24.92 $20.14 $24.14 $25.39 $23.35 $22.04 $25.39 3.8% -2.9% O.Jll, 7.4'1(, 12.5'1(, -19.2'1(, 19,9'1(, 5.2% $31.33 $33.34 $35.99 $40.29 $41.98 $32.80 $35.47 $37.63 : $37.63 $34.04 : $37,63 24.9'1(, 6.4% 7,9'1(, 11.9'1(, 4,2'1(, -21.9'1(, 8.1'1(, 6.1% $18.92 $20.60 $21.00 $22.89 $20.63 $18.71 $20.38 $29.48 : $22.42 $21.04 ! $29.48 l.()'I(, 8.9% 1.9'1(, 9.0% -9,9'1(, -9.3'1(, 8,9'1(, 44.7% $16.45 $16.64 $16.52 $17.69 $15.98 SI 7.21 $17.21 $20.62 : $17.74 $17.05 : $20.62 3.6'1(, 1.2'1(, -0.71' 7,1'1(, -9.7'1(, 7.7'1(, 0,()'I(, 19.8% $22.08 $12.36 Sl 1.58 $10.79 $21.53 $9,01 $21.55 $19.82 : $16.54 $16.88 : $19.82 10.5'1(, -44.()'I(, -6,Jll, -6.8'1(, 99.5% -58.2'1(, 139.2% -8.()'I(, $28.72 $30.61 $32.15 $25.44 $28.87 $30.78 $33.30 $34.22 : $30.52 $30.23 : $34.22 .J.9'1(, 6,6'1(, 5,()'I(, -20.9'1(, 13.5'1(, 6.6'1(, 8.2% 2.8% $28.98 $24.60 $25.06 $29.62 $33.87 $33.99 $45,64 $42.00 : $37.02 $30.57 : $42.00 46,4'1(, -15.1% 1.9'1(, 18.2'1(, 14.3'1(, 0,4'1(, 34.Jll, -8,()'I(, $22.18 ---·--· $39.00 $39.00 ; $39.00 $28.73 $39.00 2.1% -· ----0,()'I(, $34.26 $40.09 $42.00 $35.73 $26.53 $24.00 $24,00 : $27.57 $32.37 $24.00 17.0% 4,8'1(, -· ---25.71' -9.5'1(, 0,()'I(, $26.17 $25.66 $38.32 $40.19 $48.80 $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 : $43,00 $35.48 : $42.00 -2.6'1(, -1.9'1(, 49.3'1(, 4.9'1(, 21.4'1(, -13.9'1(, 0.()'I(, 0.()'I(, $42.22 $41.97 $40.93 $46.17 $45,92 $48.00 $47.55 $48.15 ! $47.16 $44.77 ! $48.15 --0,6'1(, -2.5% 12.8'1(, -0.5'1(, 4.5% -0.9% 1.3% $36.00 $39,48 $51.00 : $51.00 Retail Annval leose Rate (NNN) -I;:: ~'--=I~ ~ 2014QI 2015QI 2016QI 2017QI 2018QI 2019Q1 2020QI 2021 QI Oc.eonside -Son Morcos Vista Encinitas $55 $50 Ro1a;1 Annual lea,e Rate (NNN)---------------------~--------, :--------_;_:_,: :---------' --i----~ ::~ --:::--:_~:.:----..,.:'.:-"~::: ~}:"::. ~;_;_':;.;_, $45 ~ $40 ~ $35 $30 ~ $25 ~ ! $20 ~ $15 $10 J ,' ----' ~ --i· T--------.... -J. ~ I \ /'-I ------ ~-•~":_:-:-:---------.... ' ... C' (------:.,1--~-... ~:::.-------"" J\. ------·-·-~---,----.,,.. "r--·-----~=---.,----. i__::__ ..., -..., I J. ss +-~~-,--,-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-,--,-'--~~~~......,~~~~~~~~-,-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-,-~~~~~~-.-l 2008QI •••• -· ·---•. 2009 QI 2010 QI 2011 QI --Olde Carl.bad _ -Village So.Ah8oach --Industrial Cone/Kelly Ronch --Aviora Source: CoStor Poge 4 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n ,-+ I-> ,-..J N Sp.,:§ing Category Total E-commerce (];pending GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage !Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations Motor Vehicle ~r Nan-Store Retailers f21 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: Tot1n (1) ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $89,706,079 $65,261,582 $10,244,367 $234,805,086 $20,228,951 $87,848,467 $173,069,217 $153,684,809 $834,848,558 $260,652,748 $4,683,957 $9,462,742 $52,879, 105 $159,811,819 $147,01 4,263 $371,803,401 $1,006,308,035 $1,841,156,593 $198,880,296 $481,999,978 $70, 168,220 $751,048,494 $2,592,205,087 (2) 'ffi:1udes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) ~ E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as ol 4Q21 US census Sou~: ESRI -..J 0 -I-> -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: Gap Share (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 Consumer S~ndin, Ca~ci!r (Demand! Per Capito Share Actual Sales Adjusted Sales {A) {8) $78,044,289 $691 5% $27,908,245 I $56,777,576 $503 4% $76,484,789 $8,912,599 $79 1% $3,204,326 L $204,280,425 $1,809 13% $147,154,241 $17,599,187 $156 1% $28,930,570 $76,428,166 $677 5% $78,599,006 $150,570,219 $1,333 9% $240,644,876 $133,705,784 $1,184 8% $195,571,957 $726,318,245 $6,432 45% $798,498,010 $226,767,891 $2,008 14% $247,717,007 $4,075,043 $36 0% $3,991,592 $8,232,586 $73 1% $1 ,647,731 $46,004,821 $407 3% $114,669,876 $139,036,283 $1,231 9% $226,343,901 $1 27,902,409 $1,133 8% $1 16,174,748 $323,468,959 $2,864 20% $245,360,207 $875,487,990 $7,752 55% $955,905,062 $1 ,601,806,236 $14,184 100% $1,754,403,072 $198,880,296 $1,761 26% $111,570,095 I $481,999,978 $4,268 64% $620,704,895 $70,168,220 $621 9% $26,986,471 r $751,048,494 $6,651 100% $759,261,461 $2,352,854,730 $20,835 100% $2,513,664,533 Note: Gray c:::J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Page 1 of 24 Ga, $ ---% IA· B) S5o, 136,oTil 64% $1 9,707,213 (35%) $5,708,273 64% S57,12£,l84 28% ($1 1,331,383) (64%) ($2, 170,840) (3%) ($90,074,657) (60%) ($61,866, 1 73) 146%) ($72,179,765) (10%) $20,949,11 6 (9%) $83,451 2% 6 584 855 80% ($68,665,055) (149%) $87,307,618 (63%) $11,727,661 9% $78,108,752 24% ($80,417,072) (9%) ($152,596,836) (8%) s07,310,201 44% ($1 38,704,917) (29%) $43, 181,7491 62% ($8,212,967) (1%) ($160,809,803) (7%) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 ~ EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 H , Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential :-,J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO(l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFOTotal: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stares) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store Total: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations ;:::;: Motor Vehicle (1) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gos/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # N All Spending Categories: ~1) GAFO:Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Consumer Demand $89,706,079 $65,261,582 $10,244,367 $234,805,086 $20,228,951 $87,848,467 $173,069,217 $1 53,684,809 $834,848,558 $260,652,748 $4,683,957 $9,462,742 $52,879,105 $159,811,819 $147,014,263 $371,803,401 $1 ,006,308,035 S 1,841,156,593 Consumer Se!;nding E~commerce Actual Sales/ Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand IAI 1B) 13% $78,044,289 $27,908,245 31% 13% $56,777,576 $76,484,789 117% 13% $8,912,599 $3,204,326 31% 13% S204,280,425 $147,154,241 63% I 13% $1 7,599,187 $28,930,570 143% 13% $76,428,166 $78,599,006 89% 13% $150,570,219 $240,644,876 139% 13% $133,705,784 $195,571 957 127% $726,318,245 $798,498,010 96% Net Inflow/ Outflow 13% $226,767,891 $247,717,007 95% 13% $4,075,043 $3,991,592 85% 13% $8,232,586 $1,647,731 17% 13% $46,004,821 S 114,669,876 217% 13% $139,036,283 $226,343,901 142% 13% $1 27,902,409 $116,174,748 79% 13% $323,468,959 $245,360,207 66% $875,487,990 $955,905,062 95% Net Inflow/ Outflow $1,601,806,236 $1,754,403,072 95% Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: Inflow/ Outflow From Outside the Market IA· Bl S57~126,1 ($11,331,383) ($2,170,840) ($90,074,657) ($61,866,173) ($72,179,765) ($72,179,765) Existing Retail Space (SF) (3) 1,836,777 Current Retail Sales .e!_r SF $435 Target Retail Sales _E!r SF $475 Net Inflow/ Outflow Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Retail Space Outflow (SF) @ $483/SF 05,550 '.41,489: 12';oi7~ 120,26~ (23,856} (4,570) (189,631) (1 30,245) (151,957) (151,957) $20~1~16 (44,103 s83,451 I 176 M,584,855 13,~:}. ($68,665,055) (144,558} $87,307,618 (183,806} Sll,727,661 I 2(690] $78,108,752 -----~ ---~.,.-----,-~ 164439' ($80,417,072) 2,214,010 S432 $475 (169,299} ($80,417,072) Net Inflow/ Outflow (169,299) ($152,596,836) 4,050,787 S433 $475 (321,256) ($152,596,836) Net Inflow/ Outflow (321,256) $198,880,296 $198,880,296 $111,570,095 56% ■ it9' ,1,y,QL!J $481,999,978 $481,999,978 $620,704,895 129% $138,704,917 $70,168,220 -----$70,168,220 $26986,471 38% $43181 749 ---------------,---, $751,048,494 $751,048,494 $759,261,461 101% ($8,212,967) 1,652,405 $459 $500 ... ·-.. Net Inflow/ Outflow ($8,212,967) Net Inflow/ Outflow (16,426) $2,592,205,087 $2,352,854,730 s2,513.664.s33 I 97%1 ($160,809,803) 5,703,192 $441 $483 (337,682) Net Inflow/ Outflow Net Inflow/ Outflow O"Q(2) lndudes vending machine operators and direct.selling es.toblis.hmenls (online soles) ~3) Estimoted by% shore of consumer demand spending total (JJOOrces: ESRt; CoStor (S 160,809,803} (337,682) Note: Gray £=i = categories with spending gop 00 0 -..... -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemand Note: Red = inRow of spending from outside the trode area Page 2 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 CARLSBAD n !"' JANUARY 2022 t--> ,-..J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 44,107 44,321 44,536 44,752 44,970 45,188 1,081 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Population -Baseline 112,930 11 3,532 114,136 114,744 115,356 115,970 3,040 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Persons/HH 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.57 Households -Uplift (1 ) 44,107 44,360 44,615 44,871 45,129 45,388 1,281 % Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Population -Uplift 112,930 113,632 114,338 115,049 115,764 116,483 # Growth 702 706 711 715 719 3,553 % Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Median Household Income $120,203 $122,674 $125,197 $127,771 $130,398 $133,079 Growth 2.1% 2.1% 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % ;:::;: Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (l) Per Capita $14,184 $14,476 $14,773 $15,077 $15,387 $15,703 3 =1:1: Per HH $36,316 $37,080 $37,861 $38,657 $39,471 $40,301 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $10.2 $10.4 $10.7 $11 .0 $11.3 "'ti Sales/ Square Foot (1 ) $483 $483 $483 $483 $483 QJ OQ (l) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 21,021 21,587 22, 167 23,376 1 110,9151 t--> 22,764 w I.O Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 1 -48, 1881 0 ...... 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps t--> -..J w Annual SF I 12,5451 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemand Page 3 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n ..... ~ _-.J N Sp;§ing Category Total E-commerce [];pendin_[ GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Bocks Books & Music Department Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electranics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage [Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers 121 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: TotWi (l) ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furnilure and Other $2,359,612 $1,733,427 $273,877 $6,199,065 $531,518 $2,358,808 $4,653,298 $4,005,801 $22,115,406 $6,905,068 $121,922 $252,073 $1,390,219 $4,198,696 $3,792,731 $9,768,235 $26,428,944 $48,544,350 $5,163,493 $12,436, 1 70 $1,871,1 41 $19,470,804 $68,015,154 (2) lffl,1udes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) ~ E-Commerce spending based on reported notional average as of 4021 US census Sou.-!1,: ESRI 0 0 -~ -.J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: GoplC Share j3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH JANUARY 2022 Consumer Se!:ndin, Caeaci!l'. jDemand) Per Caeita Share Actual Sales Adjusted Sales IA) iB) $2,052,862 $793 5% $5,668,355 $1,508,081 $583 4% $47,035,454 $238,273 $92 1% $0 $5,393,187 $2,084 13% $3,128,530 $462,421 $179 1% $1,163,376 $2,052,163 $793 5% $30,538,019 $4,048,369 $1,564 10% $74,799,511 $3,485,047 $1,347 8% $2,488,899 ' $19,240,403 $7,434 46% $164,822,144 $6,007,409 $2,321 14% $30,520,538 $106,072 $41 0% $758,542 $219,304 $85 1% $0 I $1,209,491 $467 3% $95,402,135 $3,652,866 $1,411 9% $9,361,197 $3,299,676 $1,275 8% $8,857,806 $8,498,364 $3,284 20% $4,865,047 I $22,993,181 $8,885 54% $1 49,765,265 $42,233,585 $16,319 100% $314,587,409 $5,163,493 $1,995 27% $4,497,813 I $12,436, 1 70 $4,805 64% $524,814,868 $1,871,141 $723 10% $9,235,759 $19,470,804 $7,523 100% $538,548,440 $61,704,389 $23,842 100% $853, 135,849 Note: Gray CJ= categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Page 4 of 24 Ga $ % IA · B) ($3,615,493) (176%) $45,527,3~ (3019%) $238,273 100% $2,264,657 42% ($700,955) (152%) ($28,485,856) (1388%) !$70,751, 142) (1748%) $996,148 29% ($145,581,741) (757%) ($24,513, 129) (408%) !$652,~ (615%) $219,304: 100% ($94,192,644) (7788%) ($5,708,331 ) (156%) ($5,558, l 30j (168%) $31633131 7j 43% (S 126,772,084) (551%) ($272,353,825) (561%) S665,6aj 13% ($512,378,698) (4120%) ($7,364,618) (394%) ($519,077,636) (2666%) ($791,431,461) (1283%) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,-+ ...,i. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ,-...J l'J 0 l'J l'J Spending Categories GAFO (1) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Applionces Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFOTotal: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Core Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store Total: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations ;::. Motor Vehicle ro Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gos/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # l'J All Spending Categories: ~l ) GAFO=General Merchandise, Appare,, Furniture and Other Consumer Demand $2,359,612 Sl,733,427 S273,877 56,199,065 $531,5 18 $2,358,808 $4,653,298 $4,005,801 $22,115,406 $6,905,068 $121,922 $252,073 $1,390,219 $4,198,696 $3,792,731 $9,768,235 $26,428,944 $48,544,350 $5,163,493 $12,436,170 $1,871,141 $19,470,804 $68,015,154 o:9{2) Includes vending mochine operators and direct-selling e$1o~ishments (online sol&&) ~p l Estimated by% shore of consumer demand spending total #°"rces: ESRI; CoStar t-> 0 -t-> -...J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: CurrentDemondlC EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH JANUARY 2022 Consumer Spending: tnAow/ Outflow E-corrlmerce Actual Soles/ From Outside the Shore Adjusted Demond Sales Demand Market (A) (B) , .... 8) 13% $2,052,862 $5,668,355 240% ($3,615,493) 13% Sl,508,081 $47,035,454 2713% ($45,527,373) 13% $238,273 $0 0% -W S238,273. 13% $5,393,187 $3,128,530 50% ...12,W,ill. 13% $462,421 $1,163,376 219% ($700,955) 13% $2,052,163 $30,538,019 1295% ($28,485,856) 13% $4,048,369 $74,799,511 1607% 1$70,751, 142) 13% $3,485,047 $2,488 899 62%' $996 1481 S 19,240,403 $164,822,144 745% (S145,581,741) Net Inflow/ Outflow (S145,581,741) 13% $6,007,409 $30,520,538 442% ($24,513,129) 13% $106,072 $758,542 622% !S652,47fJ: 13% $219,304 $0 o% I p 19;30,f 13% $1,209,491 $95,402,135 6862% ($94,192,644) 13% $3,652,866 $9,361,197 223% ($5,708,331) 13% $3,299,676 $8,857,806 234% !S5,558, 130! 13% $8,498,364 $4,865,047 50% r s3;633;311l $22,993,181 $149,765,265 567% ($126,772,084) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($126,772,084) $42,233,585 $314,587,409 648% ($272,353,825) Net lnAow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($272,353,825) $5,163,493 $4,497,813 87% $665,BSQl $12,436,170 $524,814,868 4220% ($512,378,698) $1,871,141 $9,235,759 494% ($7,364,618) $19,470,804 $538,548,440 2766% ($519,077,636) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($519,077,636) $61,704,389 ss53, 135,849 I 1254%1 ($791,431,461) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($791,431,461) Note: Gray c:J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inRow of spending from outside the trade area Page 5 of 24 In/low/ Outflow Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Spoce Retail Retail Sales Retail Soles Out/low (SF) S~ce (S!:J (3) eer SF eer SF ~ 5_HSF (18,077) I (227,637 l,19~ ] ],32 (3,505) (1 42,429) ' !353,756) 4,981 947,811 $174 $200 (727,909) Net lnAow/ Outflow (727,909) (153,207) (588,704) (35,677) ! !34,738) 22;toa1 1,132,679 $132 $160 (792,326) Net Inflow/ Outflow (792,326) 2,080,490 $151 $180 (1,520,234) Net Inflow/ Outflow (1,520,234) (__ ·951 (731,970) po.s211 834,470 $645 $700 (741,539) Net Inflow/ Out/low (741,539) 2,914,960 $293 $353 (2,261,774) Net Inflow/ Outflow (2,261,774) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH n ~ JANUARY 2022 ~ ,-.J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 1,014 1,015 1,016 1,017 1,018 1,019 5 % Growth 0.1% 0.1 % 0.1% 0.1 % 0.1 % Populati on -Baseline 2,588 2,593 2,597 2,602 2,606 2,61 1 23 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Persons/HH 2.55 2.55 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 Households -Uplift (1) 1,014 1,052 1,092 1,132 1,175 1,219 205 % Growth 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Population -Uplift 2,588 2,687 2,7~0 2,897 3,008 3,123 # Growth 99 103 107 111 115 535 % Growth 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Median Household Income $120,548 $123,160 $125,828 $128,554 $131 ,339 $134,185 Growth 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% ;::::; Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (1) Per Capita $16,319 $16,673 $17,034 $17,403 $17,780 $18,165 3 :ti: Per HH $41,650 $42,586 $43,543 $44,522 $45,522 $46,545 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 -0 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $353 $353 $353 $353 $353 Ill O'Q (1) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 4,681 5,921 1 26,4281 ~ 4,965 5,267 5,588 .j::, N Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -45,607 -45,607 -45,607 -45,607 -45,601 1 -228,0351 0 ....., 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps ~ -.J (40,321)1 w Annual SF I (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandlC Page 6 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,-+ I-' ,-..J N Sp,iing Category O;~_r,din_l!_ GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/ Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used March Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers 121 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: Tot~ (l) e)(FO:General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Total $10,176,481 $7,394,623 $1,160,772 $26,666,924 $2,298,237 $9,829,436 $19,599,502 $17,519,379 $94,645,354 $29,698,947 $540,622 $1,069,B41 $5,978,432 $17,966,875 $16,619,577 $42,286,741 $114,161,035 $208,806,389 $22,632,754 $55,110,413 $7,918,966 $85,662,1 33 $294,468,522 (2) 'ffi:1udes vending machine operators and direct-selling eslablishments (online sales) (3) µ_% E-Cammerce spending based on reported nalional average as of 4Q2 l US census Soutil,: ESRI w 0 ...... I-' -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: GopPoi EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING POINSETTIA JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seendin Coeaci!r (Demand) Go E•commerce Per Caeita Share Actual Soles $ % Shore (3) Adjusted Sales (Al (8) IA· Bi 13% $8,853,538 $730 5% $2,796,364 $6,057,174 68% 13% $6,433,322 $530 4% $3,095,477 $3,337,845 52% 13% $1,009,872 $83 1% $0 $1,009,872 100% 13% $23,200,224 $f,912 13% $0 $23,200,224 100% 13% $1,999,466 $165 1% $1,105,850 $893 16 45% 13% $8,551,609 $705 5% $16,265,088 jS7,713,~ (90%) 13% $17,051,567 $1,405 9% $8,089,364 I 18,962,203 53% 13% $15,241,860 $1,256 8% $187,910,368 ($172,668,508) (1133%) $82,341,458 $6,785 45% $219,262,511 ($136,921,053) (1 66%) 13% $25,838,084 $2,129 14% $20,542,483 I -s5,295,6o] 20% 13% $470,341 $39 0% $688,772 $218,431 (46%) 13% $930,762 $77 1% $0 $930,762 100% 13% $5,201,236 $429 3% $2,922,682 Z 278,554 44% 13% $15,631,181 $1,288 9% $1 6,040,454 ($409,273) (3%) 13% $1 4,459,032 $1,192 8% $45,321,686 !$30,862,6541 (213%) 13% $36,789,465 $3,032 20% $10,410,984 I $26 378,481 72% $99,320,100 $8,185 55% $95,927,061 $3,393,039 3% $181,661 ,558 $14,970 100% $315,189,572 (S 133,528,014) (64%) $22,632,754 $1,865 26% $15,803,241 $6,829,513 30% $55,110,413 $4,541 64% $6,862,101 $48,248,312 88% $7,918,966 $653 9% $5,692,628 $2,226,338 28% $85,662, 133 $7,059 100% $28,357,970 $57,304,163 67% $267,323,691 $22,029 100% $343,547,542 ($76,223,851) (29%) Note: Gray CJ= categories with spending gap Note: Red : inflow of spending from outside the trade area Page 7 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 r, ,.. t-,J. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ,-.J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO(l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Department Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFOTotal: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store Total: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations ;:::;: Motor Vehicle C'D Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # N All Spending Categories: ~1) GAFO=Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Consumer Demand $10,176,481 $7,394,623 $1,160,772 $26,666,924 $2,298,237 $9,829,436 $19,599,502 $17,519,379 $94,645,354 $29,698,947 $540,622 $1,069,841 $5,978,432 $17,966,875 $16,619,577 $42,286,741 $114,161,035 $208,806,389 $22,632,754 $55,110,413 $7,918,966 $85,662,133 $294,468,522 O"QJ2) lndvdes vending machine operolors and dired-selling establishments (online soles} ~3) Estimated by% shore of consumer demand spending total #°°rces: ESRI; CoStor .j::,, 0 ...... .... -.J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandPoi EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS POINSETTIA JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seendina Inflow/ Outflow E•commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market IA) 1B) (A· B) 13% $8,853,538 $2,796,364 27% $6,057;174 13% $6,433,322 $3,095,477 42% $3,337,845 13% Sl,009,872 so 0% $1,009,872 13% $23,200,224 $0 0% $23,200,224 13% S 1,999,466 $1,105,850 48% 6 6 13% $8,551,609 $16,265,088 165% ($7,713,£?) 13% $17,051,567 $8,089,364 41% C: s(§2,201 13% $15,241,860 $187,910,368 1073% (S 1 72,668,508) $82,341,458 $219,262,511 232% ($136,921,053) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($136,921,053) 13% $25,838,084 $20,542,483 69% j ss;29s:60JJ 13% $470,341 $688,772 127% $218,431 13% $930,762 $0 0% $930;762 13% $5,201,236 $2,922,682 49% S 2 B 5 13% $15,631,181 $16,040,454 89% ($409,273) 13% $14,459,032 $45,321,686 273% !S30,862,654) 13% $36,789,465 $10,410,984 25% ! $26;378~81] $99,320,100 $95,927,061 84% $3,393,039 Net Inflow/ Outflow L S3,393.,23~ $181,661,558 $315,189,572 151% ($133,528,014) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($133,528,014) $22,632,754 $15,803,241 70% n 6.829,513i $55,110,413 $6,862,101 12% $48,248,312 $7,918,966 $5,692,628 72% $2,226,338' $85,662,133 $28,357,970 33% $57,304,163 Net Inflow/ Outflow I 157,304,1~ $267,323,691 S343,547,542 ! 11 7%! ($76,223,851) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($76,223,851) Nole: Gray c:J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Page 8 of 24 Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Space Retail Reta ii Sales Retail Sales Outflow (Sf) S~ce (S~ (3) e!r Sf eer SF _____@. $757 /SF ~l 2,271 687 15,782 608. I (5,247) 6:Q£2, (117,462) 152,761 $1,435 $1,470 (93,144) Net Inflow/ Outflow (93, 1-44) c::::: 9~ j390) L 1,662 4.069l (731) 55,112 47104 184,260 S521 $560 6059, Net Inflow/ Outflow 6,059 337,021 $935 $1 ,015 (87,085) Net Inflow/ Outflow (87,085) 138,262 S205 S240 Net Inflow/ Outflow 238,767 475,283 $723 $757 151,~§3) Net Inflow/ Outflow 151,683 THE CONCORD GRO UP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 POINSETTIA n ;T JANUARY 2022 I-' _--..i N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 4,739 4,745 4,750 4,756 4,761 4,767 28 % Growth 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1% Population -Baseline 12,135 12,155 12,176 12,196 12,217 12,237 102 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Persons/HH 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.57 Households -Uplift ( l ) 4,739 4,784 4,829 4,875 4,921 4,967 228 % Growth 0 .9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Population -Uplift 12,135 12,256 12,378 12,501 12,625 12,750 # Growth 121 122 123 124 126 615 % Growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median Household Income $118,990 $121,169 $123,387 $125,646 $127,946 $130,289 Growth 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% ;:::;: Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (1) Per Capita $14,970 $15,244 $15,523 $15,807 $16,097 $16,392 3 :i:t Per HH $38,333 $39,055 $39,789 $40,538 $41 ,301 $42,078 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.8 $1.9 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 "'O Sales/ Square Foot ( 1) $757 $757 $757 $757 $757 OJ OQ (1) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 2,n9 1 12,8651 I-' 2,431 2,500 2,571 2,644 ~ V, Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -2,6 7 3 -2,673 -2,6 7 3 -2,6 7 3 -2,613 1 -13,0631 0 -7 5% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps I-' --.J w Annual SF I (39)1 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandPoi Page 9 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n !"'" I-" ,-..J N Sp~ing Category Total E-commerce CJ;pendin_g_ GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used March Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations Motor Vehicle ~r Non-Store Retailers 121 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: To~ 11) ~FO=Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $6,021,924 $4,390,234 $711,385 $16,043,993 $1,376,808 $5,971,479 $1 1,916,765 $10,592,408 $57,024,996 $17,814,308 $338,840 $642,173 $3,577,677 $10,985,992 $9,885,552 $25,745,101 $68,9B9,643 $126,014,639 $13,704,490 $32,762,202 $4,943,501 $51,410,193 Sl 77,424,832 (2) 'ffi:1udes vending machine operators and direct.selling establishments (online soles) (3) j1.% E•Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Sou.4llt: ESRI O'l 0 -I-" -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: Gopcar Shore (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% OLDE CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seendini Caeoci!}'. (Demand) Go Per Caeita Shore Actual Soles $ % Adjusted Soles (Al 1B) IA· B) $5,239,074 $5B6 5% $1,819,054 L $3,420,0201 65% $3,819,504 $427 3% $3,067,647 $.~l.~ 20% $618,905 $69 1% $1,903,178 ($1,284,273) 1208%) $13,958,274 $1,562 13% $77,974,045 ($64,015,771) 1459%) $1,197,823 $134 1% $2,736,167 ($1,538,344) (128%) $5,195,187 $581 5% $4,736,484 L 1458,703, 9% $10,367,586 $1,160 9% $74,133,310 ($63,765,724) (615%) $9,215,395 $1,031 8% $2,259,370 I $6,956,0251 75% $49,611,747 $5,551 45% $168,629,255 (Sl 19,017,508) (240%) $15,498,448 $1,734 14% $20,095,739 $4,597,291 (30%) $294,791 $33 0% $0 I $294,791 100% $558,691 $63 1% $148,072 $410,619 73% $3,112,579 $348 3% $135,452 $2,977,127 96% $9,557,813 $1,069 9% SB,300,626 $1,257,187 13% $8,600,430 $962 8% $1,700,537 $6,899,893 80% $22,398,238 $2,506 20% $1,480,820 S20 917,418 93% $60,020,989 $6,715 55% $31,861,246 $28,159,743 47% $109,632,736 $12,266 100% $200,490,501 ($90,857,765) (72%) $13,704,490 $1,533 27% $3,598,420 $10,106,070 74% $32,762,202 $3,665 64% $1,380,810 $31,381,3921 96% $4,943,501 $553 10% $310,886 $4,632,615 94% $51,410,193 $5,752 100% $5,290,116 $46,120,077 90% $161,042,929 $18,018 100% $205,780,617 (S44,737,688) (28%) Note: Groy C:J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow al spending from outside the trade area Page 10 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ...... t--1-Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ,--..I N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO (1) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Department Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Res!aurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Core Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations ;::::; Motor Vehicle 11) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gos/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # N All Spending Categories: ~1) GAFO=Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Fumiture ond Other Consumer Demand $6,021,924 $4,390,234 $711,385 $16,043,993 $1,376,808 $5,971,479 $11,916,765 $10,592,408 $57,024,996 $1 7,814,308 $338,840 $642,173 $3,577,677 $10,985,992 $9,885,552 $25,745,101 $68,989,643 $126,014,639 $13,704,490 $32,762,202 $4,943,501 $51,410,193 $177,424,832 0"0(2) lndudes vending machine operotC)(s and dired.sl!llling establishments (online soles) ~3) Estimated by% share of consumer demand spending total ~rces: ESRI; CoStar --.J 0 -..... --.J l,J.J 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandcar EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS OLDE CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seending Inflow/ Outflow E•commerce Adual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Marice! !Al (B) (A· B) 13% $5,239,074 $1,819,054 30% $3,420,0~ 13% 53,819,504 $3,067,647 70% , $751 85 13% $618,905 $1,903,178 268% (S 1,284,273) 13% $13,958,274 $77,974,045 486% ($64,015,771) 13% $1,197,823 $2,736,167 199% (S 1,538,344) 13% S5, 195,187 $4,736,484 79% I s~.703 13% $10,367,586 $74,133,310 622% (563,765,724) 13% $9,215,395 $2,259,370 21% ! s6:956;02s! $49,611,747 $168,629,255 296% ($119,017,508) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($119,017,508) 13% S 15,498,448 $20,095,739 113% $4,597,291 13% $294,791 $0 0% S294,791 13% $558,691 $148,072 23% $410,619 13% $3,1 12,579 $135,452 4% $2,977,127 13% $9,557,813 $8,300,626 76% $1,257,187 13% $8,600,430 $1,700,537 17% $6,899,893 13% $22,398,238 $1480820 6% $20 917 418 $60,020,989 $31,861,246 46% $28,159,743 Net Inflow/ Outflow I ___j;!!1.~J,743J $109,632,736 $200,490,501 159% ($90,857,765) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($90,857,765) $13,704,490 $3,598,420 26% $10,106;070 $32,762,202 $1,380,810 4% $31,381,392 $4,943,501 $310,886 6% $4 632 61 $51,410,193 $5,290,116 10% $46,120,077 Net Inflow/ Outflow i S46J 20,07.Z. $161,042,929 s2os.1ao,617 I 116%! ($44,737,688) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($44,737,688) Note: Gray CJ= categories w;fh spending gap Note: R:ed = inflow of spending from outside the trode area Page 11 ol 24 Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Space Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) S~ce (S~ (3) ~rSF eer SF ~ $147 /SF I 9,771 2,)§. (3,669) (182,902) t (4,395! 1,31.l ! (182,188) 19;8741 523,700 $322 $350 (340,050) Net Inflow/ Outflow (340,050) 65,676 4,211' 5,866i 42,5301 17,9601 98,5701 298,820- 633,580 $50 $70 l_ 402,282 Net Inflow/ Outflow 402,282 1,157,280 $173 $210 62,232 Net Inflow/ Outflow 62,232 472,135 $11 $20 Net Inflow/ Outflow 1,629,415 $1 26 $147 L 2,3.6s.m Net Inflow/ Outflow I $2,368,236; THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 OLDE CARLSBAD n ~ JANUARY 2022 I-' ~-..J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 3,569 3,576 3,583 3,589 3,596 3,603 34 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Populati on -Baseline 8,938 8,957 8,977 8,996 9,016 9,035 97 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Persons/HH 2.50 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 Households -Uplift ( l ) 3,569 3,615 3,661 3,708 3,755 3,803 234 % Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Population -Uplift 8,938 9,055 9,173 9,292 9,414 9,537 # Growth 117 118 120 121 123 599 % Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Median Household Income $99,106 $100,823 $102,569 $104,346 $106,153 $107,992 Growth 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% ;:. Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (l) Per Capita $12,266 $12,478 $12,695 $12,91 4 $13,138 $13,366 3 :i;: Per HH $30,718 $31 ,258 $31 ,808 $32,368 $32,937 $33,516 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1 .6 $1.6 "'t:J Sales/ Square Foot (1) $1 47 $1 47 $147 $147 $147 Ql OQ (!) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 9,922 11 ,193 1 52,7411 I-' 10,226 10,539 10,861 +'" CXl Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,a61 1 9,3351 0 -15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps I-' -..J w Annual SF I 12,4151 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandcar Page 12 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n ,..... I-' ,-..J N Sp,;j§ing Category Total E-commerce IJ;pendin_!l_ GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/ Applio nces Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Core Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers 121 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: Tot~ (1) ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and 01her $2,118,616 $1,628,258 $274,124 $6,072,209 $515,889 $2,1 47,893 $4,388,284 $4,129,402 $21,274,675 $6,664,379 $94,329 $241,631 $1,393,497 $4,221,833 $3,100,465 $10,115,377 $25,831,511 $47,106,186 $5,281,535 $11,881,259 $1,770,703 $18,933,497 $66,039,683 (2) ~ludes vending machine operalors and dired•selling eslablishments lonline soles) 13) µ!.% E•Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Sou~: ESRI u, 0 -I-' -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: Gopvil Shore (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% VILLAGE JANUARY 2022 Consumer S~ndin! Copoci!J'.: (Demand) Per Capita Adjusted Sales (A) $1,843,196 $465 $1,416,584 $358 $238,488 $60 $5,282,822 $1,334 $448,823 $113 $1,868,667 $472 $3,817,807 $964 $3,592,580 $907 $18,508,967 $4,673 $5,798,010 $1,464 $82,066 $21 $210,219 $53 $1,212,342 $306 $3,672,995 $927 $2,697,405 $681 $8,800,378 $2,222 $22,473,415 $5,674 $40,982,382 $10,346 $5,281,535 $1,333 $11,881,259 $3,000 $1,770,703 $447 $18,933,497 $4,780 $59,915,879 $15,126 Page 13 of 24 Share Actual Sales (8) 4% $711 ,139 3% $2,612,457 1% $0 13% $0 1% $2,154,786 5% $2,741,717 9% $15,355,863 9% $695,737 45% $24,271,699 14% $56,663,659 0% $206,875 1% $962,468 3% $2,841,224 9% $5,774,680 7% $8,077,676 21% $20,125,930 55% $94,652,512 100% $118,924,211 28% $8,687,418 63% $11 ,795,077 9% $0 100% $20,482,495 100% $139,406,706 Note: Gray c:::J = categories with spending gap Go $ % 61% (84%) 100% -=-=·. 100% ($1 ,705,963) (380%) ($873,050) (47%) ($11,538,056) (302%) I S2,896,843j 81% ($5,762,732) (31%) ($50,865,649) (877%) ($124,809) (1 52%) ($752,249) (358%) ($1,628,882) (134%) ($2,101 ,685) (57%) ($5,380,271) (1 99%) ($11 ,325,552) (129%) ($72,179,097) (321%) ($77,941,829) (165%) (64%) 1% 100% (8%) ($79,490,827) (1 33%) Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ;'" 1--t Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ,-..J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO (1) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Department Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/ Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Core Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage !Grocery Stores} Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations ;:::; Motor Vehicle rD Other Non-Store Retailers j2) 3 Gos/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: :i:; N All Spending Categories: ~l) GAFO=Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Fumiture ond Other Consumer Demond $2,118,616 $1,628,258 $274,124 $6,072,209 $515,889 $2,147,893 $4,388,284 $4,129,402 $21,274,675 $6,664,379 $94,329 $241,631 S1,393,497 $4,221,833 $3,100,465 S 10,115,377 $25,831,511 $47,106,186 $5,281,535 $11,881,259 $1,770,703 $18,933,497 $66,039,683 09{2) lndudes vending mod,ine operators ond dir&et-selling establishments (online sales) ~!3) Eslimated by% shore of con,:umer demond spending total LJi<>Urces: ESRI; CoStor 0 0 .... I-' -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandvil EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS VILLAGE JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seending Inflow/ Outflow E•commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market !Al (8) IA-Bl 13% $1,843,196 $711,139 34% s:i:w:o~ 13% $1,416,584 $2,612,457 160% Sl, 195,873 13% $238,488 $0 0% S238,488 13% $5,282,822 so 0% $5,282!1~ 13% $448,823 $2,154,786 418% ($1,705,963) 13% $1,868,667 $2,741,717 128% ($873,050) 13% $3,817,807 $15,355,863 350% is 11,s38,056J 13% $3,592,580 $695,737 17% ! s2;896;843, SlB,508,967 $24,271,699 114% ($5,762,732) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($5,762,732) 13% $5,798,010 $56,663,659 850% ($50,865,649) 13% $82,066 $206,875 219% ($124,809) 13% $210,219 $962,468 398% ($752,249) 13% $1,212,342 $2,841,224 204% ($1,628,882) 13% $3,672,995 $5,774,680 137% ($2,101,685) 13% $2,697,405 $8,077,676 261% ($5,380,271) 13% $8,800,378 $20,125,930 199% jS 11,325,552) $22,473,415 $94,652,512 366% ($72,179,097) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($72,179,097) $40,982,382 $118,924,211 252% ($77,941,829) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($77,941,829) $5,281,535 $8,687,418 164% $3,405,883 $11,881,259 $11 ,795,077 99% $86,182 $1,770,703 so 0% $1770703 S 18,933,497 $20,482,495 108% ($1,548,998) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($1,548,998) $59,915,879 s 139,406,706 I 211%! ($79,490,827) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($79,490,827) Note: Gray [=1 = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areo Page 14 of 24 Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Spoce Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) S~ce jS~ j3} eer SF e!r SF ~ S 198/SF I 2:0.5.6' ~67) 1 1,908 _ 42,263 (13,648) (6,984) [ !92,304) 23;'i751 237,301 $102 $125 (46,102) Net Inflow/ Outflow (46,102) (145,330) (357) (2,149) (4,654) (6,005) (15,372) !32,359) 288,128 $329 $350 (206,226) Net Inflow/ Outflow (206,226) 525,429 $226 $238 (252,328) Net Inflow/ Outflow (252,328) I !28,382) 14 ~!~ 211,187 $97 $120 (12,908) Net Inflow/ Outflow (12,908) 736,616 $189 $198 (265,236) Net Inflow/ Outflow (265,236) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 VILLAGE n !"'T JANUARY 2022 I-' ,-..J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 1,925 1,952 1,979 2,007 2,035 2,064 139 % Growth 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Population -Baseline 3,961 4,011 4,061 4,11 2 4,164 4,216 255 % Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Persons/HH 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.04 Households -Uplift ( l ) 1,925 1,988 2,054 2,122 2,192 2,264 339 % Growth 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Population -Uplift 3,961 4,086 4,214 4,347 4,483 4,625 # Growth 125 129 133 137 141 664 % Growth 3.1 % 3.1% 3.1% 3.1 % 3.1 % Median Household Income $78,661 $79,402 $80, 151 $80,906 $81,668 $82,438 Growth 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% ;::; Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (l) Per Capita $10,346 $10,444 $10,542 $10,642 $10,742 $10,843 3 :i:t Per HH $21 ,290 $21,459 $21,629 $21 ,801 $21,974 $22,149 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.3 $1.4 $1.4 $1.5 $1.5 -0 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $198 $198 $198 $198 $198 OJ OQ 11) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 1,n2 1 35 ,6261 I-' 6,562 6,832 7, 114 7,407 V, I-' Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -7,570 -7,570 -7,570 -7,570 -1,510 1 -37,8491 0 ..... 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps I-' -..J w Annual SF I (445)1 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandvil Page 15 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n ;'" I-> ,-....I N Sp~ing Category Total E-commerce ~~ndin-9_ GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Department Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Nan-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used March Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers 121 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Sto re Tota l: Tot1n (1) ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture ond Other $3,837,146 $2,769,876 $431,330 $9,914,122 $859,171 $3,804,690 $7,352,220 $6,444,582 $35,413,1 37 $10,997,877 $201,048 $403,038 $2,269,096 $6,921,107 $6,360,647 $15,659,105 $42,811,918 $78,225,055 $8,343,499 $20,304,909 $3,011,247 $31,659,655 $109,884,710 (2) ffl:1udes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) ~ E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4021 US census Soula: ESRI N 0 ..... I-> -....I w 21690.00 Retail Demand: Gapsou Sha re (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% SOUTH BEACH JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seendin1 Ca~ci!l:'. (De mand) Per Capita Share Actual Sales Adjusted Sales (A) 18) $3,338,317 $771 5% $0 $2,409,792 $556 4% $798,109 $375,257 $87 1% $0 $8,625,286 $1,991 13% $0 $747,479 $173 1% $0 $3,310,080 $764 5% $2,078,244 $6,396,431 $1 ,477 9% $7,481,542 $5,606,786 $1,294 8% $695,737 r $30,809,429 $7,112 45% $11,053,632 $9,568,153 $2,209 14% $42,443, 143 $174,912 $40 0% $1,032,752 $350,643 $81 1% $0 t $1,974,114 $456 3% $1,263,945 $6,021,363 $1,390 9% $12,371,381 $5,533,763 $1,277 8% $7,095,156 $13,623,421 $3,145 20% $20,189,791 $37,246,369 $8,598 55% $84,396,168 $68,055,798 $15,710 100% $95,449,800 $8,343,499 $1 ,926 26% $29,683,349 $20,304,909 $4,687 64% $54,032,121 $3,01 1,247 $695 10% $8,322,111 $31 ,659,655 $7,308 100% $92,037,581 $99,715,453 $23,018 100% $187,487,381 Note: Gray [=1 = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade oreo Page 16 of 24 Ga $ % IA· B} S3,338,317 100% S1,61 1,683 67% $375,257 100% SB,625,286 100% $747,479 100% 1 231 836 37% !$1,085, 111! (17%) $4,911,049j 88% $19,755,797 64% ($32,874,990) (344%) $857,840 (490%) $350,643 100% S710,169 36% ($6,350,018) (1 05%) ($1,561,393) (28%) ($6,566,370) (48%) ($47,149,799) (127%) ($27,394,002) (35%) ($21,339,850) (256%) ($33,727,212) (166%) ($5,310,864) (176%) ($60,377,926) (191 %) ($87,771,928) (88%) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ..... !-1. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ~-..J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO (1) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gifi Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFOTotal: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places !Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Heolth & Personal Core Building/Gorden Materials Consumer Demand $3,837,146 $2,769,876 $431,330 $9,914,122 $859,171 $3,804,690 $7,352,220 $6,444,582 $35,413,137 $10,997,877 $201,048 $403,038 $2,269,096 $6,921,107 $6,360,647 EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS SOUTH BEACH JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seendin9 Inflow/ Outflow E•commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market !Al {8) !A· Bf 13% $3,338,317 $0 2: I $3,338,31 7i 13% $2,409,792 $798,109 $1,611,683, 13% $375,257 $0 0% $375,2571 13% $8,625,286 so 0% SB,625,2861 13% $747,479 $0 0% $747,4791 13% $3,310,080 $2,078,244 ss% l $1,231,83~ 13% $6,396,431 $7,481,542 102% is 1,08s, 1111 13% $5,606,786 $695,737 11% ' $4911 049 $30,809,429 $11,053,632 31% Net Inflow/ Outflow 13% $9,568,153 $42,443,143 386% 1$32,874,990) 13% $174,912 $1,032,752 514% $857,840 13% $350,643 $0 0% $350,643 13% S 1,974,11 4 $1,263,945 56% s, 0 169 13% $6,021,363 $12,371,381 179% ($6,350,018) 13% $5,533,763 $7,095,156 112% 1s 1,561,393) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) 13% S15,659, 105 ,v .. S 13,623,421 $20,189,791 129% !$6,566,370) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gos Stations ;:::;: Motor Vehicle ro Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # N All Spending Categories: ~I) GAFO=Generol Merchandise, Apparel, Fumilure ond Other $42,811,918 $78,225,055 $8,343,499 $20,304,909 $3,011,247 $31,659,655 $109,884,710 ~2} lndudes vending machine operators ond direct-selling estat>,is.hments (online sales) ~3) Estimated by % shore of consumer demand spending tolol [riources: ESRI; CoStor w 0 -...... -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrenlDemandsou $37,246,369 $84,396,168 197% 1$47, 149,799) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($47,149,799) $68,055,798 $95,449,800 122% 1$27,394,002) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: 1$27,394,002) $8,343,499 $29,683,349 356% 1$21,339,850) $20,304,909 $54,032,121 266% 1$33,727,212) $3 011,247 $8 322,111 276% ($5,310,864) $31,659,655 $92,037,581 291% 1$60,377,926) Net Inflow/ Outflow 1$60,377,926) $99,715,453 s187,487,301 I 171%! 1$87,771,928) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($87,771,928) Note: Gray c:::J= categories wi1h spending gap Note: R:ed = inflow of spending from outside the trode oreo Page 17 ol 24 Existing Retail Space (SF) (3) 105,300 127,300 232,601 94,139 326,740 Current Retail Sales .e_er SF Target Retail Sales .e_er SF Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Retail Space Outflow !SF) @ $603/SF $105 s125 -l -·--.---, Net Inflow/ Outflow $663 $685 Net Inflow/ Outflow $410 $405 Net Inflow/ Outflow $978 $1,000 Net Inflow/ Outflow $574 $603 Net Inflow/ Outflow .. ~ ....... ~ 147,993) 1,252)_ m; J,~Zi 19,270) 12,279) (9,586) 168,832) 168,832) 89,215 89,215 121,340) 133,727) ~ 160,378) 160,378) 28,m 28,837 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 SOUTH BEACH n ;'" JANUARY 2022 1--' ,-....1 N 0 Projected 2021 - N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 1,779 1,782 1,785 1,788 1,791 1,794 15 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0 .2% 0.2% 0.2% Population -Baseline 4,332 4,346 4,361 4,375 4,390 4,404 72 % Growth 0.3% 0 .3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Persons/HH 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.45 Households -Uplift (l) 1,779 1,820 1,862 1,905 1,949 1,994 215 % Growth 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Population -Uplift 4,332 4,439 4,549 4,661 4,777 4,895 # Growth 107 110 113 115 118 563 % Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Median Household Income $117,248 $119,965 $122,745 $125,590 $128,500 $131,478 Growth 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% ;::;: Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): Cl) Per Capita $15,710 $16,074 $16,447 $16,828 $17,218 $17,617 3 :ii: Per HH $38,255 $39,205 $40,178 $41,176 $42,199 $43,246 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.7 $1 .8 $1.9 $2.0 $2. l " Sales/ Square Foot ( l) $603 $603 $603 $603 $603 QI OQ Cl) Additional Supportable GI.A from New HH Spend 3,4so 1 15,7281 1--' 2,855 2,993 3,139 3,291 l.n .i:,. Additional Supportable GI.A from Current Gaps 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,616 1 13,3821 0 -15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps 1--' -...J w Annual SF I 5,8221 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandsou Page 18 of 24 THE CON CORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 8- 1-' ~-..J N Sp,iing Category Total E-commerce lJ;pending GAFO (1) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/ Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers (21 ~/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: Tot~ ill ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $16,845,030 $12,094,149 $1,880,044 $43,508,654 $3,782,133 $16,356,829 $32,016,852 $28,495,216 $154,978,907 $48,121,662 $945,422 $1,754,217 $9,884,521 $30,438,925 $28,511,289 $69,034,855 $188,690,891 $343,669,798 $36,629,877 $90,016,810 $13,244,870 $139,891,557 $483,561,355 (2) 'ffl:iudes vending machine operators and direct-selling eslablishmenls (online soles) (3) µ,% E-Commerce spending bosed on reported national overage os of 4021 US census Soula: ESRI V, 0 ....., I-' -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demand: GopRL Shore (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% RANCHO LA COSTA JANUARY 2022 Consumer S~nding Ca~ci!}'. (Demond) Per Capita Shore Actual Sales Adjusted Sales !Al IBI $14,655,176 $827 5% $9,204,393 I $10,521,910 $594 4% $12,714,080 $1,635,638 $92 1% $0 I $37,B52,529 $2,136 13% $69,674,000 $3,290,456 $186 1% $2,775,946 $14,230,441 $803 5% $10,399,049 $27,854,661 $1,572 9% $57,1 48,056 $24,790,838 $1,399 8% $0 I $134,831,649 $7,609 45% $161 ,915,524 $41,865,846 $2,362 14% $25,490,501 $822,517 $46 0% $757,730 $1,526,169 $86 1% $148,072 $8,599,533 $485 3% $0 $26,481,865 $1,494 9% $14,151,855 $24,804,821 $1,400 8% $3,815,257 $60,060,324 $3,389 20% $27,277,204 $164,161 ,075 $9,264 55% $71,640,619 $298,992,724 $16,872 100% $233,556,1 43 $36,629,877 $2,067 26% $14,391,978 $90,016,810 $5,080 64% $0 $13,244,870 $747 9% $89,769 Sl 39,891,557 $7,894 100% $14,481,747 $438,884,281 $24,766 100% $248,037,890 Note: Gray c::::J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Page 19 of 24 Go1 $ % IA· Bi 15,450,@ 37% 1s2, 192, 17ol (21%) i l ,635,§38 100% $31,821,471 (84%) $514,510· 16% $3 831 39.2 27% ($29,293,395) (105%) $24,790,838l 100% ($27,083,875) (20%) S l 6,375,345j 39% $64,787 8% Sl,378,097 90% $8,599,533 100% $12,330,010 47% $20,989,564 85% $32 783 120 55% $92,520,456 56% $65,436,581 19% $22,237,899 61% $90,016,810 100% $13,155,101 99% $125,409,810 90% $190,846,391 43% THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ...... 1--1-Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential ,-...J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO (l ) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Tot~[ Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store Total: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations ;::. Motor Vehicle (!) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) 3 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: # N All Spending Categories: ~l) GAFO=Generof Merchandise, Apparel, Fvmiture and Other Consumer Demand $16,845,030 $12,094,149 $1,880,044 S43,508,654 $3,782,133 $16,356,829 $32,016,852 $28,495,216 $154,978,907 $48, 121,662 S945,422 $1,754,217 $9,884,521 $30,438,925 $28,511,289 $69,034,855 $1 SB,690,891 $343,669,798 $36,629,877 $90,016,810 $13,244,870 $139,891 ,557 $483,561,355 O'Q(2) Includes vending machine operoto,s ond direct.selling estobliahments (ooline soles) ~3) Estimated by % shore of consumer demand spending lotal [riources: ESRI; CoStor O'l 0 -I-' -...J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: CurrentDemandRL EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL-DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS RANCHO LA COSTA JANUARY 2022 Consumer S~nding lnRow/ Outflow E•commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market !Al f81 IA· Bl 13% S 14,655,176 $9,204,393 55% ■ $5,450,783 13% $10,521,910 $12,714,080 105% is2, 1n, 1101 13% $1,635,638 $0 0% j 11:635:63~ 13% $37,852,529 $69,674,000 160% $31,821,471 13% $3,290,456 $2,775,946 73% $514,510 13% $14,230,441 $10,399,049 64% $3,831,392 13% $27,854,661 $57,148,056 178% j S29,293,395) 13% $24,790,838 $0 0% I S24,790,838, $134,831,649 $161,915,524 104% ($27,083,875) Net lnRow/ OutRow ($27,083,875) 13% $41,865,846 $25,490,501 53% S 16,375,345 13% $822,517 $757,730 80% $64,781. 13% $1,526,169 $148,072 8% $1 ,378,097. 13% $8,599,533 $0 0% $8,599,533 13% $26,481,865 $14,151,855 46% $12,330,010 13% $24,804,821 $3,815,257 13% $20,989,564 13% $60,060,324 $27,277,204 40% $32 783 120 $164,161,075 $71 ,640,619 38% $92,520,456 Net lnRow/ OutRow I $92,520,i~ $298,992,724 $233,556,143 68% $65,436,581 Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: L l 65..Q6,s!!JJ $36,629,877 $14,391,978 39% S22,237,899 $90,016,810 so 0% $90,016,8 10 $13,244,870 $89 769 1% $13 155 101 $139,891,557 $1 4,481,747 10% Net lnRow/ OutRow i $12~,4!!:Y,iral $438,884,281 su8,o31.a90 I 51%! $190,846,391 Net Inflow/ OutRow I !190,8-46,391 Note: Gray c::::J = categories with spending gop Note: R:ed = inflow of spending from outside the trode oreo Page 20 ol 24 lnRow/ OutRaw Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Spoce Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales OutRow (SF) Sf!!ce (S~ (3) eer SF eer SF ~ $413/SF j 4,644' p s,507) 30 0501 204,877 $790 $825 (32,829) Net lnRow/ OutRow (32,829) 249,443 $287 $315 Net lnRow/ OutRow 293,716 454,319 $514 $570 260,887 Net Inflow/ OutRow 260,887 222,3791 900,l~ 131,551 184,932 $78 $100 i 1,2~8' Net Inflow/ OutRow 1,254,098 639,251 $388 $413 I l,~~Jl~i Net Inflow/ OutRow 1,514,985 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 RANCHO LA COST A n ;'" JANUARY 2022 ..... ,-..J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 --I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 7,035 7,070 7,106 7,141 7,177 7,213 178 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Population -Baseline 17,721 17,808 17,895 17,983 18,071 18,160 439 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Persons/HH 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 Households -Uplift (1 ) 7,035 7,109 7,184 7,259 7,336 7,413 378 % Growth 1.1% 1.1% 1.1 % 1.1% 1.1 % 1.1% Population -Uplift 17,721 17,906 18,092 18,281 18,471 18,664 # Growth 185 187 188 190 192 943 % Growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median Household Income $141 ,373 $142,907 $144,458 $146,026 $147,611 $149,213 Growth 1.1% 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1% ;:::; Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (t) Per Capita $16,872 $17,055 $17,240 $17,428 $17,617 $17,808 3 # Per HH $42,501 $42,958 $43,419 $43,886 $44,358 $44,835 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $3.1 $3.2 $3.3 $3.4 $3.4 -0 Sales/ Square Foot (l ) $413 $413 $413 $413 $41 3 Ill Otl (t) Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 7,6 18 7,781 7,947 8, 117 a,291 1 39,7541 ..... V, -..J Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps 7,827 7,827 7,827 7,827 1,a21 1 39, 1331 0 -15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps ..... -..J (JJ Annual SF I 15,7771 (1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRL Page 21 of 24 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CONSUMER SPENDING 0 n ;T r-' ,-..J N Sp..$ling Category Total E•commerce rtpending GAFO (l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Habby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stares Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/ Appliances Clothing & Accessories Olher General Merchandise GAFO Total: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Olher Misc. Stores Health & Personal Care Building/Garden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Total Exel. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations Motor Vehicle ~ Non-Store Retailers 121 Ggj/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: Tot1u (11 ~FO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $3,443,617 $2,456,298 $373,165 $8,852,380 $775,241 $3,309,184 $6,304,875 $5,902,906 $31,417,666 $9,738,844 $171,294 $353,464 $2,054,333 $6,223,045 $5,840,160 $14,104,097 $38,485,237 $69,902,903 $7,759,641 $18,779,194 $2,585,510 $29,124,345 $99,027,248 (2) 'ffl:1udes vending machine operators and direct-selling esloblishments (online soles) (3) jl.% E-Commerce spending based on reported notional overage as of 4Q21 US census Sou~: ESRI 00 0 -r-' -..J OJ 21690.00 Retail Demond: GapRR Share (3) 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 Ca~ci!}'. !Demand) Consumer Spendin! Per Capita Share Actual Sales Adjusted Sales !Al (BJ $2,995,947 $474 5% $6,476,953 $2,136,979 $338 4% $7,538,493 $324,654 $51 1% $944,258 $7,701,571 $1,217 13% $0 I $674,460 $107 1% $22,779, 159 $2,87B,990 $455 5% $4,388,661 $5,485,241 $867 9% $12,339,975 $5,135,528 $812 B% $521,803 I $27,333,369 $4,321 45% $54,989,302 $8,472,794 $1,339 14% $7,710,202 I $1 49,026 $24 0% $275,833 $307,514 $49 1% $296,144 [ $1,787,270 $283 3% $2,135,406 $5,414,049 $856 9% $161,967,560 $5,080,939 $803 8% $28,103,996 $12,270,564 $1,940 20% $1,995,757 ' $33,482,156 $5,293 55% $202,484,898 $60,815,526 $9,614 100% $257,474,200 $7,759,641 $1,227 27% $7,195,989 $18,779,194 $2,969 64% $1,989,512 $2,585,510 $409 9% $0 $29,124,345 $4,604 100% $9,1 85,501 $89,939,871 $14,217 100% $266,659,701 Note: Gray c:J = categories with spending gap Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area. Page 22 of 24 Ga $ % (A-8) ($3,481 ,006) (116%) ($5,401,514) (253%) !$619,604) (191%) $7,701,57~ 100% ($22, 104,699) (3277%) (S 1,509,671) (52%) ($6,B54, 734) (125%) $4,613,725! 90% ($27,655,933) (1 01%) s162,si1I 9% (S126,8i (85%) $11,370 4% ($348,136) (19%) ($156,553,511) (2892%) \$23,023,057! (453%) $10,274,807! 84% ($169,002,742) (505%) ($196,658,674) (281%) $563,652 7% $16,789,682 89% $2,585,510. 100% $19,938,844 68% ($176,719,830) (196%) THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 n ,-+ t,-l. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demond Potentiol ,-..J N 0 N N Spending Categories GAFO(l) Furniture Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books Books & Music Deportment Stores Office Supplies, Gift Stores Electronics/Appliances Clothing & Accessories Other General Merchandise GAFOTotal: Non-GAFO Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) Florist Used Merch Other Misc. Stores Health & Personal Core Building/Gorden Materials Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) Non-GAFO Total: Exel. Vehicle/Gos/Non-Store Total: Gos/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Gas Stations ;::;: Motor Vehicle (l) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) ~ ~ 3 Gos/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: :ti: N All Spending Categories: ~1) GAFO=Generol Merchondise, Apparel, Furn~ure ond Othar Consumer Demand $3,443,617 $2,456,298 $373,165 $8,852,380 $775,241 $3,309,184 $6,304,875 $5,902,906 $31,417,666 $9,738,844 $171,294 $353,464 $2,054,333 $6,223,045 SS,840, 160 $14,104,097 $38,485,237 $69,902,903 $7,759,641 $18,779,194 $2,585,510 $29,124,345 $99,027,248 OQ(2) lndudes \l&nding machine operators ond dired-selling estobtishmenls (online KIies) 53) Estimated by % shore of consumer demand spending total ui°°rces: ESRI; CoStor I.O 0 -h I-> -..J w 21690.00 Retail Demond: CurrentDemondRR EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD JANUARY 2022 Consumer Seending Inflow/ Outflow E•commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market IA) (81 IA · BJ 13% $2,995,947 $6,476,953 188% ($3,481,006) 13% $2,136,979 $7,538,493 307% ($5,401,514) 13% $324,654 $944,258 253% !s619,6fru 13% $7,701,571 so 0% [ ~Z,701:571 13% $674,460 $22,779,159 2938% ($22,104,699) 13% $2,878,990 $4,388,661 133% ($1,509,671) 13% $5,485,241 $12,339,975 196% ($6,854,734) 13% $5,135,528 $521 803 9% ! s(613;12sl $27,333,369 $54,989,302 175% ($27,655,933) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($27,655,933) 13% $8,472,794 $7,710,202 79% L s::w:mJ 13% $149,026 $275,833 161% (Sl26,8@ 13% $307,514 $296,144 84% I s11,370 13% S 1,787,270 $2,135,406 104% ($348,136) 13% $5,414,049 $161,967,560 2603% (S 156,553,511) 13% $5,080,939 $28,103,996 481% 1s23,023,057J 13% $12,270,564 $1,995,757 14% ! S Hl,274;aoj_J $33,482,156 $202,484,898 526% ($169,002,742) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($169,002,742) $60,815,526 $257,474,200 368% ($196,658,674) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($196,658,674) $7,759,641 $7,195,989 93% $563,65~ $18,779,194 $1,989,512 11% $16,789,682 . $2,585,510 $0 0% $2 585 510 S29, 124,345 $9,185,501 32% $19,938,844 Net Inflow/ Outflow i !19,2,38,8~ $89,939,871 s266,659,701 I 269%! ($176,719,830) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($176,719,830) Note: Gray CJ= categories with spending gcp Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade oreo Page 23 ol 24 Inflow/ Outflow Unfulfilled Existing Current Target Retail Spoce Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) S~ce (S~ (3) eer SF eer SF !!i1 $1333/SF (3,607) (5,597) I t 42] ~ (22,906) (1,564) I 17. 103J 4'.7811 58,474 S940 $965 (28,659) Net Inflow/ Outflow (28,659) I 268~ c-:: 144 1 (122) (54,931) ! (8,078! 3:605 71,628 $2,827 $2,850 (59,299) Net Inflow/ Outflow (59,299) 130,102 $1,979 $1,908 (87,958) Net Inflow/ Outflow (87,958) --- 54,206 $169 ---$185 Net Inflow/ Outflow 184,308 $1,447 s1,333 i Jf,819. Net Inflow/ Outflow 19,819 T HE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT 111-2 RETAIL -DEMAND -TOTAL RETAIL SPACE 0 ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD n ~ JANUARY 2022 ..... ~-..J N 0 Projected 2021 -N N Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 --I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand Population and Income Growth: Households -Baseline 2,397 2,441 2,486 2,532 2,579 2,627 230 % Growth 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Population -Baseline 6,326 6,453 6,583 6,715 6,850 6,988 662 % G rowth 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Persons/HH 2.64 2.64 2.65 2.65 2.66 2.66 Households -Uplift ( 1) 2,397 2,477 2,561 2,646 2,735 2,827 430 % Growth 3 .4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Population -Uplift 6,326 6,549 6,779 7,018 7,264 7,520 # Growth 223 230 239 247 256 l , 194 % Growth 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Median Household Income $115,867 $1 19,036 $122,292 $125,637 $129,073 $132,603 Growth 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% ;::::. Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store): (I) Per Capita $9,6 14 $9,877 $10,147 $10,424 $10,709 $11,002 3 =1:1: Per HH $25,372 $26, l 07 $26,863 $27,641 $28,442 $29,267 N New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $2.2 $2.3 $2.5 $2.6 $2.8 ""Cl Sales/ Square Foot (l ) $1,333 $1 ,333 $1 ,333 $1,333 $1 ,333 Q) (IQ (I) Additional Su pportable GLA from New HH Spend 1,649 1,865 2,109 1 9,3591 ..... 1,753 1,983 O'l 0 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 1 -13,1941 0 -15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps ..... -..J (767)1 w Annual SF I (1 ) Household Uplift from COVID-1 9 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRR Page 24 of 24 T HE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT 0 ~ ~ ~-...J N 0 N N ;::. (D 3 # N "'C Q) (JQ (D ~ en ~ 0 -~ -...J w Newport Beach 369 San Miguel Dr, #265 Newport Beach, CA 92660 (949) 717-6450 Atlanta Los Angeles 10000 Washingto n Blvd, #7113 Culver City, CA 90232 (949) 717-6450 Austin San Francisco 251 Kearny Sr, 6th Fl oor San Francisco, CA 94108 (415) 397-5490 725 Ponce De Leon Ave, #315 Atlanta, GA 30306 201 W 5th St, 11th Floor #21 Austin, TX 78701 (404) 879-5000 (512) 287-4530 122 GUIDE Oct. 17, 2022 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Attachment C 2022 C cityof Carlsbad Item #2 Page 162 of 173 ,,,, The Economic Development Strategic Plan is a roadmap that will guide the City's economic development activities for the next five years. The Strategy comes at a critical time for the City and the community. Given the pandemic, subsequent recovery, market pressures, and international conflict, it is more important than ever to Identify Carlsbad's economic development strategies and to prepare for future challenges. The Strategic Plan provides flexible and agile guidance for Carlsbad to address City Council's goal of economic vitality: fostering a vibrant community. This Economic Development Action Plan accompanies the Strategic Plan as a guide for the tactical actions that will build toward achieving the overarching goals and objectives in the Strategic Plan. The Action Plan will allow the City to strategically reprioritize or realign strategies if priorities shift t hroughout the tenure of the Strategic Plan. While the Innovation and Economic Development Department (l&ED) is the lead on these efforts, economic development is collaborative, and is not limited to one department, group, or organization. The Strategy and Action Plan thoughtfully involves multiple City departments, local and regional partners, workforce and talent, residents, and the broad and diverse businesses that support the community. As such, the Action Plan is intended to assist the City in aligning its program priorities to match the market opportunities identified in the Strategic Plan. While the Action Plan assigns timeframes to each tactical action, it does not make staffing recommendations regarding the implementation of these programs. l&ED is a small, but mighty department, however, with its limited economic development staff, it may not be possible to implement all of the proposed actions w ithout additional staff and resources. The Action Plan assumes that new activities and programs would be phased in over several years and acknowledges that many of the proposed tactics involve activities that the City is already undertaking. The City of Carlsbad believes in transparency and accountability, and as such, staff will regularly update the Economic Development Subcommittee on the progress made on the goals and objectives in the Strategic and Action Plans. I 2 I ciR-%Ft7Al~o ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Item #2 Page 163 of 173 City of Carlsbad Economic Development Strategic Plan Goals GOAL 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. GOAL 2: Develop Workforce and Attract Talent Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. GOAL 3: Grow and Support Key Industries Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad's economy. GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVEL18i!¾tf~T STR£~c1-§t-R6J ~AN I 3 I Goal 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.1: Strategic Action 1.1.1: Celebrate staffs role High Year1 $ l&ED Everyone is Percentage Educate the public in economic development of Carlsbad and Economic increase in on the permitting and continue to educate on how their work can Development customers rating entitlement process lead to success and economic health in training service as good and provide City staff the City. or excellent with the knowledge and resources they Strategic Action 1.1.2: Continually High Ongoing $ CD Audit of Percentage need to provide such review the planning application and procedures increase in information permitting procedures to identify process customers rating improvements. service as good or excellent Objective 1.2: Strategic Action 1.2.1: Evaluate creation of Medium Year 3 $$ CD Consolidate Percentage of Provide a positive a one stop shop permit center that allows digital participants that customer service customers to access resources related to resources; rate programs as experience during the the permitting process in one location. Conduct good or excellent permitting process. assessment of physical space Strategic Action 1.2.2: Continue the High Year 1 $$ CD Number of Percentage implementation of the Customer Self online permits increase Service program within the permitting available in online application system, Energov, to increase applications the number of applications available online. Strategic Action 1.2.3: Increase ability High Year3 $$ CD Number of Percentage for customers to track the status of their online permits increase projects online. available in online applications Strategic Action 1.2.4: Promote the High Year1 $ CD Pre-app Percentage pre-application program to help identify information on increase in pre- major issues early in the entitlement website and application process. bulletin Strategic Action 1.2.5: Enhance the Medium Year2 $ l&ED Create bulletins Percentage Welcome to Carlsbad Program for new with resource increase in businesses by providing information information customers rating and resources on the pre-application service as good program, permitting process, and business or excellent resources. Strategic Action 1.2.6: Create an option Medium Year4 $ CD Creation Number of for applicants to request project resolution of project applicants that issue meetings to resolve high priority, resolution team rate service as time-sensitive issues with senior level good or excellent Development Services staff. Strategic Action 1.2. 7: Evaluate a potential Low Year 5 $ CD Identify priority Percent economic development priority project projects; decrease in designation for planning and permitting Identify options permitting review review that could included expedited to expedite process review, enhanced communication and/or other allowances. I 4 I Cl,q,c6Fl7A~~D ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Item #2 Page 165 of 173 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.2: StrategicAction 1.2.8: Create a program Low Year4 $ l&ED Creation Percentage Continued to give planning and building staff better of training increase in insight into operations in key industries, program customers rating thereby giving a better understanding of service as good development need. or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.9: Evaluate potential Medium Year4 $$ CD Identify Percentage solutions to give a clearer understanding of and create increase in zoning prior to submittal. (Open Counter) educational customers rating resrouces service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.10: Utilizing Energov, Medium Year1 $ CD Establish Percentage track turnaround times for planning current decrease in turn applications and permits to identify areas to turnaround around times increase efficiency. times; Identify targets Objective 1.3: Strategic Action 1.3.1: Create Small Medium Year 2 $ l&ED Partner with Percentage of Empower small Business and Entrepreneur Symposium on business participants that businesses and basic and critical issues for small business organizations rate event as entrepreneurs with owners. Topics could include marketing, to create good or great resources they need social media, finance, human resources, Symposium to be successful in access to capital, technology, and more. Carlsbad Strategic Action 1.3.2: Partner with Low Mid $ l&ED Create shop Number of business organizations to develop a shop local program participants local initiative to encourage patronage at Carlsbad businesses. StrategicAction 1.3.3: Expand partnerships Medium Year2 $ l&ED Identify Percentage with entrepreneur support organizations entrepreneur increase in and regional business partners to connect support number of entrepreneurs with resources, networks, organizations entrepreneurs and capital. Strategic Action 1.3.4: In partnership with Medium Year2 $ l&ED Hold Open Percentage of the local business organizations, hold House event participants that a Carlsbad Employer Open House to rate event as showcase local businesses and connect good or great them with potential employees. Strategic Action 1.3.5: Develop a Small Medium Year 3 $ l&ED Identify / add Percentage of Business Liaison Program that includes staff person small businesses a dedicated liaison to resolve issues with to manage rating program the small business and entrepreneur program as good or community. excellent Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVEL1c~t~ srnR~c1§e-Rl,lt>2AN I 5 I Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.4: Strategic Action 1.4.1: Through a data Low Year4 $ CD Identify Percentage Embrace the driven approach, consider additional outdated increase in changing nature of flexibility in the development code to allow planning customers rating work and what that for more agility as business trends change. practices and service as good may look like for codes or excellent Carlsbad businesses Strategic Action 1.4.2: Evaluate sign age Low Year 3 $ CD Identify Percentage requirements for businesses. potential decrease in outdated number of signage complaints practices and codes Objective 1.5: Strategic Action 1.5.1: Partner with the Medium Year2 $ l&ED Create Percentage Increase engagement Employer Assistance and Resource partnership increase in and support for Network on Disability Inclusion (EARN) number of women, minority, to create resources for disabled-owned disabled-owned veteran, disabled-businesses. businesses owned businesses assisted Strategic Action 1.5.2: In conjunction with Medium Year2 $ l&ED Creation of Percentage regional partners such as SBA. SCORE, additional increase in and SBDC, offer trainings specifically trainings attendance; geared towards supporting women, percentage of minority, veteran, and disabled-owned participants that businesses. rate programs as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.5.3: Celebrate women, High Year1 $ l&ED Creation Percentage minority, veteran, and disabled-owned of events increase in businesses by acknowledging and creating promoting number of events around: Women's Small Business inclusivity minority owned Month, Veterans Small Business Week, businesses Small Business Week, Black Business celebrated Month, Hispanic Heritage Month, etc. publicly I 6 1 c1,q,c61=1c?'.t1.l~o ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Item #2 Page 167 of 173 Goal 2: Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.1: Strategic Action 2.1.1: Enhance Life In High Year1 $ l&ED Identify Percentage Enhance workforce Action to incorporate partnerships with additional increase in training and talent hospitality, tourism, and entertainment companies participation of attraction resources sectors. from key key sectors to support Carlsbad's sectors to key industries incorporate by partnering with K-12 school Strategic Action 2.1.2: Collaborate with Medium Year 2 $$ l&ED Number of Percentage districts, regional regional partners such as SOCAL, Mira regional increase in higher educational Costa College, TCI, and local businesses partners; local students institutions, and for workforce training for middle school, Number of employed in regional cities high school, post-secondary students, and students local jobs to support talent transitioning adults. development and linkages with key Strategic Action 2.1.3: Enhance and Medium Year1 $ LIB Number of Percentage industries promote educational workshops provided P&R educational increase in by the Library, Parks and Recreation workshops number of and other resources that provide skill participants in development to Carlsbad's workforce. City programs Strategic Action 2.1.4: Partner with K-12, High Year3 $ l&ED Number of Percentage school districts, and higher education K-12 schools increase in institutions to enhance their existing partnered with local students programs that provide technical and soft employed in skills to entry level employees. local jobs Strategic Action 2.1.5: Facilitate High Year3 $ l&ED Number of Percentage partnerships between Carlsbad's partnerships increase in businesses and education partners local students to identify skills necessary to obtain employed in employment in high wage industries. local jobs Objective 2.2: Create Strategic Action 2.2.1: Conduct initial study Medium Year 1 $$ IT lniital study Percentage a more connected for outdoor Wi-Fi at City facilities and other completed increase of City and capitalize on critical areas for the public. available outdoor existing digital tools to wi-fi locations promote digital equity Strategic Action 2.2.2: Promote the City's High Year 1 $$ COM Number of Percentage existing digital tools to connect residents, promotions increase of businesses, and tourists to resources the residents and City offers. businesses with access to high speed internet Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEvEL\,P1ltU~ srn.!'~c1§~i96J~AN I 7 1 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.3: Through Strategic Action 2.3.1 Evaluate Medium Year 1 $$$ HOUSE Number of Percentage the implementation of partnership with local businesses to businesses increase in the Housing Element enhance the current Down Payment participating; down payment programs, address Assistance Program. Number of assistance housing issues while residents provided promoting economic participating in vitality by providing the Down Payment workforce additional Assistance housing opportunities to Program be able to both live and work in Carlsbad Objective 2.4: Through Strategic Action 2.4.1: Evaluate High Year 1 $$$ ES Conduct Percentage the implementation of micro-mobility options to make feasibility increase in the Sustainable Mobility Carlsbad more connected and studies of public transit Plan programs, mindfully accessible. micro-mobility riders create opportunities to options promote economic vitality by providing the Carlsbad workforce additional mobility options 1 s I c 1tfCbi=l7.a.~~D ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Item #2 Page 169 of 173 Goal 3: Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad's economy. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 3.1: Strategic Action 3.1. 1: Evaluate micro-High Year1 $$$ ES Identify and Percentage Evaluate opportunities mobility options in the Village and coastline evaluate micro-increase in to improve mobility for to make Carlsbad more connected and mobility options number of visitors, residents, and accessible. people utilizing the workforce. public transit Strategic Action 3.1.2: Use data to identify High Year3 $$$ l&ED Identify and Percentage specific mobility issues and select projects ES evaluate micro-increase in from the City's Sustainable Mobility Plan mobility options number of that will result in a higher quality of life for people utilizing Carlsbad residents. public transit Objective 3.2: Strategic Action 3.2.1: Use business data Medium Year 1 $ l&ED Continue Number of Connect businesses and recent business survey to assess and to survey businesses that in key sectors with engage with industry clusters to develop businesses have expanded data and resources support for their expansion, attraction, and bi-annually or relocated they need to thrive in retention. Carlsbad. Strategic Action 3.2.2: Utilize partnership Medium Year2 $ l&ED Continue Number of with Innovate 78 to connect Carlsbad Innovate 78 businesses businesses with regional resources. Partnership connected to regional resources Objective 3.3: Assist Strategic Action 3.3.1: Promote the City's Medium Year1 $ l&ED Creation of Percentage businesses in growing business locator website to businesses promotional increase in industries or sectors, looking to move to Carlsbad, developers, materials number of such as health care, brokers, and investors. businesses life sciences, and the utilizing locator. innovation economy, which are looking to Strategic Action 3.3.2: Host industry Medium Year3 $ !&ED Host events Percentage relocate or expand in advisory groups with leaders in key of participants Carlsbad. business clusters, with a specific emphasis rating program on the innovation economy. as good or excellent. Strategic Action 3.3.3: Host commercial Medium Year3 $ !&ED Host events Percentage real estate forums to create connections of participants with resources. rating program as good or excellent. Objective 3.4: Strategic Action 3.4.1: Continue to support High Year1 $ !&ED Continue Percentage Support the needs of Carlsbad business organizations that regular increase in our residents while maintain the tourism economy in Carlsbad. meetings tourism revenue balancing the needs with business of our businesses in organizations tourism, hospitality, and entertainment. Strategic Action 3.4.2: Partner with High Year4 $ !&ED Develop Number of local universities and colleges to create partnerships connections workforce development opportunities in that result in the hospitality, tourism, and entertainment employment sectors. Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELlo~U~T srn.f~c:1-Ze-RliJ~AN I 9 I Goal 4: Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promot- ing access to economic development resources and opportunities. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.1: Build Strategic Action 4.1.1: Develop a Medium Year3 $ l&ED Develop Comm Percentage upon the successes communications plan specific towards COM Plan increase in of the communication economic development efforts and businesses efforts in the City celebrating the business community with reached to promote the consistent and cohesive messaging. City's economic development Strategic Action 4.1.2: Incorporate business High Year 1 $ l&ED Incorporate Percentage programs. and economic development activities into COM business increase in the weekly City Manager newsletter, City activities into businesses calendar, and social media to foster a newsletter reached sense of pride in local businesses. Strategic Action 4.1.3: Consider developing Low Year 3 $ l&ED Creation of ED Percentage a separate economic development COM newsletter increase in newsletter focused on business and businesses workforce development resources. reached Strategic Action: 4.1.4: Update Economic High Year 1 $ l&ED Update Percentage Development website and Doing Business websites increase in in Carlsbad website to include links to businesses programs and regional partners and reached resources. Strategic Action 4.1.5: Expand the opt-in Low Year4 $ IT Evaluate Percentage text messaging system related to economic feasibility of increase in development and other City activities. expanding participants system Strategic Action 4.1.6: Develop a business Medium Year2 $ l&ED Develop Number of spotlight program to highlight local spotlight businesses businesses. program highlighted Strategic Action 4.1. 7: Develop and High Year2 $ CD Develop Percentage promote bulletins and flow charts for bulletins and increase in common permitting application types. flow charts rating permitting experience ad good or excellent Strategic Action 4.1.8: Develop and High Year3 $ COM Creation of Decrease in promote 'how to' videos for select CD videos number of permitting processes. complaints Strategic Action 4.1.9: Create a digital Medium Year 3 $ l&ED Creation of Percentage library of free business resources. COM digital library increase in numberof users accessing information Strategic Action 4.1.10: Create a How to do High Year 2 $ l&ED Creation of Percentage Business Guide to assist small businesses Guide increase in and entrepreneurs in opening a business in rating permitting Carlsbad. experience ad good or excellent I 10 I c1<?fti~t¼iQ~~AD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Item #2 Page 171 of 173 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.2: Strategic Action 4.2.1: Partner with local Medium Years $ COM Increase Percentage Enhance placemaking businesses to participate in and promote awareness of businesses opportunities to the City's volunteer program to activate of volunteer participating strengthen the public spaces and foster a sense of program connection between connection. people and the places they share. Strategic Action 4.2.2: Provide a digital Low Year4 $ COM Creation of Percentage platform for local businesses to promote platform of businesses their volunteer opportunities, such as beach participating cleanups. Strategic Action 4.2.3: Utilize the City's High Year1 $ COM Increase Percentage social media platforms to showcase engagement increase in Carlsbad's sense of place and community. on social media the number of platforms Carlsbad tags in social media Strategic Action 4.2.4: Consider expanding Medium Year2 $ COM Evaluate Percentage the City's social media footprint into additional increase in additional platforms, such as TikTok, to social media social media target different segments of the Carlsbad platforms engagement population. Objective 4.3: Strategic Action 4.3.1: Continue to Medium Year2 $$ LIB Evaluate Percentage Leverage city-owned celebrate local artists by enhancing the options to increase of assets and right of City's Public Art Collection. enhance number of artists way to create a sense program celebrated of place Strategic ~ction 4.3.2: Expand the City's Medium Year3 $$$ PW Evaluate Percentage parklet program to create additional options increase in green space and community gathering to create square footage opportunities. additional of parklet sapce green space Strategic Action 4.3.3: Partner with local Medium Year2 $$ l&ED Determine Percentage business organizations to implement locations and increase in placemaking strategies such as holiday options number of lighting and a banner program to enhance visitors to the sense of place and community. identified areas Oct. 17, 2022 I 12 I c1<?f16~t1A~Q~~AD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN C cityof Carlsbad Item #2 Page 173 of 173 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN UPDATE Recommendation: Receive an informational report regarding the Economic Development Strategic Plan, discuss and provide a recommendation to adopt the strategic plan.Item 2 Economic Development Strategic Plan Economic Development Subcommittee October 17, 2022 Methodology Market Study Findings Strategic Plan Goals & Objectives Action Plan Highlights Next Steps Agenda Methodology Resident & Workforce Outreach Business Engagement Market Study SWOT Analysis Identify Goals and Strategic Objectives City Staff Feedback Subcommittee Feedback Create and Adopt Strategic Plan Market Study Key Findings •High Paying Industries: Life Sciences, Technology, Cleantech •Inflow of Residents from LA and SF •Outflow to Riverside County •Key Industries -Pandemic Employment Decline •High Share of Class A Office Space in North County •Downtown SD: Threat to Attract Talent and Companies •High Job to Labor Ratio •Relatively Affordable Office and Flex Spaces Rents Strategic Plan Overview Economic Development Strategic Plan •Methodology •Market Study •Community Engagement •City Profile •Goals •Where We Excel •Challenges We Face •Opportunities for Growth •Objectives Strategic Action Plan •Objectives •Strategic Actions •Priority •Year •Cost •Lead •Deliverable •KPI City of Carlsbad Econom1ic Developm1ent Strategic Plan Goals G10AL 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. GOAL 2: Develop Workforce and Attract Talent Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. - G10AL 3: Grow and Support Key !Industries Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad's economy. G10AL 4: Encourage IPlacemaking and Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Goal 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups, & Entrepreneurs Support small businesses, startups & entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. Goa 1 Objectives 1I.l: Educate the public on the permitting and entitlement process and provide City staff with knowledge and resources to work with businesses and provide such information 11.2: Improve customer service experience during the penmitting process 1.3: Empower s1mall businesses and entrepreneurs with resources they need to be successful in Carlsbad 11.4: Embrace the changing nature of work and what that may look like for Carlsbad businesses 1I.S: Increase engagement and support for women, minority, veteran, and disabled-own businesses -----------= Goal 1 Strategic Action Highlights Economic Development Training Carlsbad Employer Open House Small Business Liaison Program Celebrate Diversity in Businesses Promote Pre- Application Program Increase Online Access for Permit Center One Stop Permit Center Audit Planning & Permitting Procedures Project Issue Resolution Meetings Small Business & Entrepreneur Symposium Goal 2: Develop and Attract Workers & Talent Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. Goall 2 ,Qlbjectives .2.1: Enhance workforce training and talent attraction resources to support Carlsbad's key industries by partnering with K-12 school districts, regional higher educational institutions, and other cities in the region to support talent development and linkages with key industries .2.2: Create a more connected City and capitalize on existing digital tools to promote digital equity 2.3: Through the imple1mentation of the Housing Element programs, address housing issues while pro1moting economic vitality by providing the workforce additional housing opportunities to be able to both live and work in Carlsbad 2.4:Through the imple1mentation of the Sustainable Mobility Plan programs, mindfully create opportunities to promote economic vitality by providing the Carlsbad workforce additional mobility options --- --------= Goal 2 Strategic Action Highlights Life In Action Workforce Training Opportunities Micro- Mobility Promote City Digital Tools Partner with Higher Education Goal 3: Grow & Support Our Key Industries Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad’s economy. Goal 3 O lbjective,s 3.1: Evaluate opportunities to i1mprove 1mobility for visitors, residents, and workers 3.2: Connect businesses in key sectors with data and resources they need to thrive in Carlsbad 3.3: Assist businesses in growing industries such as tech, life sciences, cleantech, sports inno,vatio,n & design, and ho,spitality & tourism, a1mo,ng others, which are lo,oking to, relo,cate or expand in Carlsbad 3.4: Balance support between the needs of residents and businesses in ho,spitality & touris1m, and entertainment .......,,,,. --------= Goal 3 Strategic Action Highlights Micro-Mobility Support Business Organizations Advisory Groups and Forums Innovate 78 Data Driven Business Attraction & Retention Goal 4: Encourage Placemaking & Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Goal 4 Obje,ctives 4.·1: Build upon the successes o,f the communication efforts in the City to pro1mote the CityJs econo,mic development programs 4.,2:: Enhance physical 1placemaking opportunities to, strengthen the co,nnection between 1people and the 1places they share 4.3:: Leverage City-o,wned assets and right of way to create a sense of place .......,,,,. --------= Goal 4 Strategic Action Highlights City Manager Newsletter How To Videos How to Do Business Guide Social Media and Sense of Place Update Econ Dev Website Next Steps Feedback City Council Review Finalize Plan Feedback & Discussion