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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2023-01-10; City Council; ; Economic Development Strategic PlanCA Review: GH Meeting Date: Jan. 10, 2023 To: Mayor and City Council From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager Staff Contact: David Graham, Chief Innovation Officer david.graham@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-5992 Matt Sanford, Economic Development Manager matt.sanford@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-5987 Subject: Economic Development Strategic Plan District: All Recommended Action Staff recommends the following actions: 1. Receive the report 2. Adopt a resolution approving the proposed Economic Development Strategic Plan 3. Direct staff to evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with fiscal year 2023-24 Executive Summary On Oct. 11, 2022, the City Council approved a five-year Strategic Plan that included the goal of economic vitality with an objective of creating a strategic approach for a vibrant economy. Adoption of the Economic Development Strategic Plan will fulfill that objective and provide a long-term approach to economic vitality. The plan considers current economic uncertainty and provides strategies that can adapt to changing factors while keeping the city’s economic development efforts focused. The strategic plan and the associated action items were developed in conjunction with the community and Carlsbad business organizations, with guidance from the Economic Development Subcommittee of the City Council. Approval of this item will set in place the long-term economic strategy for the city. The proposed resolution attached as Exhibit 1 will also direct staff to work on any necessary recommendations for the FY 2023-24 annual budget. Explanation & Analysis Background The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated impacts on Carlsbad businesses were met with swift action from the city. The City Council formed an Ad Hoc Economic Development Subcommittee Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 1 of 142 and committed $5 million to support local businesses. The city launched an Economic Recovery and Revitalization Initiative that included programs such as a small business loan program, eased permitting requirements for the operation of businesses outdoors and in the public right- of-way, and provided matching funds for a shop local gift card program. In May of 2021, city staff worked with Cities GPS to create the COVID-19 Inclusive Recovery Assessment and Implications report, which included recommendations for the city as it transitioned from the economic response phase of the pandemic to the recovery phase. The city used $100,000 of funding that had been committed to the initiative to fund the development of a long-term economic development strategic plan. RSG Group was selected to work with staff on creating the Economic Development Strategic Plan (Attachment A to Exhibit 1) to help guide economic development efforts in the near and long-term. RSG Group has a 40-year history of working with cities on community development, economic development and redevelopment. The plan and its strategies The Economic Development Strategic Plan incorporates: • Work done by Cities GPS for the inclusive recovery assessment and implications report • The 2022 Carlsbad Business Report • An evaluation of current economic development efforts and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic impacts • Public input from businesses, workers, and residents • Suggestions of best practices that may be applicable to Carlsbad. RSG Group staff leveraged their expertise as economic development consultants, as well as the analysis of The Concord Group, which conducted a market study for Carlsbad (Exhibit 2). The proposed strategic plan is broken into two parts. The first part is the strategy itself, which is meant to last three to five years with these overarching economic development goals: 1. Support small businesses, startups and entrepreneurs 2. Develop workforce and attract talent 3. Grow and support key industries 4. Encourage placemaking and engagement Actions to implement plan The second part of the plan is he Economic Development Strategic Actions (Exhibit 3). These are numerous tactics that can be pursued by the city to achieve the four goals set forth in the strategy. These action items were developed during the engagement process and with the recommendations of the Economic Development Subcommittee. Staff are now seeking input on the action items from the full City Council and, based on its input, will develop and refine information such as prioritization, cost, estimated timeline, departments engaged and key performance indicators to measure success. These proposed actions are detailed in Exhibit 3. Based on City Council’s input on this item, staff plan to present any related budgetary recommendations to the City Council during the annual budget process, beginning with the budget for fiscal year 2023-24. Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 2 of 142 The action plan is meant to be revisited on an annual basis and updated to correspond with changing market conditions, economic needs, budgets and future challenges. As conditions change, certain actions may be elevated in priority, the timeline may be updated and performance indicators may be adjusted to respond to future needs more accurately. On Oct. 17, 2022. the Economic Development Subcommittee unanimously recommended that the Economic Development Strategic Plan be taken to the full City Council for adoption. The actions before the Council today are the adoption of the plan and directing staff to work on the associated actions and provide any budgetary requests during the annual budget process. The list of action items will be reviewed, revised, and updated as necessary annually to ensure the goals adopted in the plan are achieved and that it is adapted to meet changing economic conditions. Community Engagement The proposed Economic Development Strategic Plan was created with input from numerous stakeholders, including businesses, business organizations, residents, workers, the City Council’s Economic Development Subcommittee and internal staff from numerous departments. The Economic Development Subcommittee received regular updates and provided input throughout the plan’s development. Through late February and early March of 2021, staff worked with RSG Group to gather the input from several focus groups. These included one for residents and workers that met on Feb. 15, 2022, and two business focus groups that met on March 2. Staff promoted the focus groups using the city’s social media channels, direct outreach and invitations to board members and committees from Carlsbad’s business organizations, as well as a Joint Communication with the Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce and Carlsbad Village Association. Staff also maintained ongoing engagement with businesses, workers and residents throughout the process of drafting the Economic Development Strategic Plan. On Mar. 21, 2022, staff launched a digital “idea wall” to solicit feedback and ideas from businesses, workers, and residents. This resource was available for two months and generated several dozen comments from the community. On May 24 and 26, 2022, staff hosted two community forums, one using Zoom to enable remote participation, and one in person. These sessions allowed stakeholders to respond to strategies proposed in the plan while it was being drafted. After the two hearings at the end of May, RSG worked with staff to develop an outline and began drafting the strategic plan based on their research and analysis and input from businesses, residents, and stakeholders. On Jul. 6, 2022, an initial draft was shared with city department leaders to ensure alignment with ongoing operations and strategies, where possible. Fiscal Analysis Additional resources will be necessary to fully implement the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If adopted, staff will return to the City Council with an updated version of the Economic Development Strategic Actions (Exhibit 3) that will include estimated costs over the life of the strategic plan and recommend any necessary budgetary considerations during the annual budget process, starting with fiscal year 2023-24. Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 3 of 142 Options The City Council may adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If this option is chosen, it would provide an overarching focus for the city’s economic development efforts for the near term and long-term. The City Council may choose to not adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If this option is chosen, staff would continue economic development activities in response to specific and overarching challenges to the economy and business community. However, economic development efforts may be more reactionary instead of proactive and forward-looking. Next Steps Should the City Council adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan, staff would begin executing actions that are a high priority but do not require additional funding. Staff would evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with Fiscal Year 2023-24. Environmental Evaluation This action does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment. Exhibits 1. City Council resolution 2. Carlsbad Market Study 3. Economic Development Strategic Actions Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 4 of 142 RESOLUTION NO. 2023-010 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, ADOPTING THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN WHEREAS, on April 7, 2020, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020-058 authorizing the formation of the Ad Hoc City Council Economic Revitalization Subcommittee to provide direction on response, recovery, and revitalization programs during the COVID-19 pandemic; and WHEREAS, the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California determined that formation of a standing Economic Development Subcommittee was needed to receive information and advise the City Council on economic recovery and development matters; and WHEREAS, on May 11, 2021, the City Council passed a motion to form a standing Economic Development Subcommittee to replace the Ad Hoc City Council Economic Revitalization Subcommittee; and WHEREAS, despite emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty continued to impact Carlsbad's economy and businesses; and WHEREAS, the Economic Development Subcommittee oversees and advises on efforts to support Carlsbad businesses and analyze economic conditions to ensure the Carlsbad's economy remains vibrant; and WHEREAS, on October 11, 2022, the City Council adopted a citywide strategic plan that includes Economic Vitality as a council goal; and WHEREAS, the Economic Development Subcommittee recommended the formation of an Economic Development Strategic Plan to guide city economic development efforts for the next three to five years; and WHEREAS, the Economic Development Strategic Plan has a complementary set of Economic Development Strategic Actions that will be updated and provided to the City Council on an Annual Basis; and WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has not previously had an Economic Development Strategic Plan. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows: 1.That the above recitations are true and correct. Exhibit 1 Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 5 of 142 2.That the Economic Development Strategic Plan as shown in Attachment A is hereby approved and adopted. 3.That the City Council directs staff to evaluate, revise, and update the strategic actions associated with the plan on an annual basis and make any fiscal recommendations during the annual budget process. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 10th day of January, 2023, by the following vote, to wit: AYES: NAYS: ABSTAIN: ABSENT: Blackburn, Bhat-Patel, Acosta, Burkholder. None. None. None. l.-,_, SHERRY FR� Clerk l' (SEAL) Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 6 of 142 Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad Report Prepared for The City of Carlsbad March 23rd, 2022 DRAFTExhibit 2 Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 7 of 142 RSG EDSP February 2022 Carlsbad, CA 21690.00 I. MARKET OVERVIEW 1. Regional Location and Summary Findings 2. Employment A. Overall B. Industry Composition C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA comparison also) D. Employment Nodes (break between a few uses, medical, industrial) E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on distance/direction – north, south etc) F. Migration Patterns G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps) 3. Demographic Summary 4. City Demos – GDP growth, recent developments, large future projects, largest employers A. Tourism B. Industry Composition C. Major Employers II. OFFICE OPPORTUNITY 1. Office Market Performance – (Overall, Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial) 2. Office Demand 3. Submarket Capture Scenarios III. RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 1. Retail Market Performance – (Overall, Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional) 2. Retail Demand 3. Retail Opportunity Summary 2DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 8 of 142THE CONCORD GROUP Market Overview 3DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 9 of 142 EXHIBIT I-1REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITIONNORTH COUNTY, CAJANUARY 2022OceansideNorth CountySan MarcosEncinitasNorth San DiegoSolana BeachVistaEscondidoPowayCarlsbadThe bluearea represents North County San Diego, the geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report.The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, San Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista and a portion of northern San Diego City.The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland parts.21690.00 Reg Loc: ReglocTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 10 of 142,., Do .... e Canyon Loke F0tes1 Rancho Son~o Margarito Laguna Wood:s Mi:s.i.iot1 Vleoio laguoo HiU-s 73 Aljso Viejo v;Jg1.,1no Niguol San Juun Capistrono S.On Cl1Jmente Pacdrc Ocean ,. Lokc Elsi,101"1!1 OolMa Canyon Lo~e Wildomar Memre,e Muui,elo Ho• Spring• Temoculo "' Unfvqnily Lo Jollo City La J9lla 80f,lonio El Coion ~:r;,~~ E~s• San D,ego lo Meso Rancho Lemoq Grove $1;1n Oi 90 or1h Pork Son Diego Logan Heights Logan Heights Coronado No1ionol Cily Poradi~e Hills onikt l-lolc:0mb Villoge .Me-JO Gr,ande Wotne, Springs San ~B ncu:::io Son Felipa, li!.anchl1o Senta Ysabel Bonner Julian Pinq G•ove Alpine Oe,con><> Guotor ~9"" loll lerrento:,, The Willow:,; Pine Valley L.ogu Jvnc;tion Boulder Ook,1, Sprin,gs u,o Ook Spring, Q' Legend M1nq11,1ire Oasis North San Diego North County Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Esoondido Encinitas Del Mar Carlsbad ii)' ., lly REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD MICRO-MARKETSCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022EXHIBIT I-1Industrial Core - Kelly RanchThe city of Carlsbad has been broken down into 16 distinct neighborhoods defined loosely by the city of Carlsbad's Neighborhood Boundaries map and broken up by corresponding block groups. For the purposes of this analysis, TCG has identified following key neighborhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential economic growth: Olde Carlsbad, The Village, South Beach, Aviara, Poinsettia, and The Industrial Core-Kelly Ranch*Market name found on city of Carlsbad neighborhood boundaries mapOlde CarlsbadVillageSouth BeachAviaraPoinsettia21690.00 Reg Loc: ReglocTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 11 of 142·~ r; $~-.: ~\\e ,#' \ , "do d' Legend outh Beach obertson_Rancho Carlsbad ancho La Costa Poinsettia Olde Carlsbad North Beach La Costa Ridge La Costa Oaks La Costa Greens_Bressi Ranch_Rancho Carrillo Industrial Core_Kelly Ranch Hedionda Point llif"}S,0-, Ce011sido~BIY 1:' -=,.<>, V A\,, '1:Clc.1,-p 0 ~14.t.,, ~ ~ w -:: ~~ b::-t5 _,,..i,-t. i -1,dlo"":f ". r ~~) 0.5 ~ Miles I ~nd ttle GIS '-™tr CC1mm~nity E'5f1, HERE GiUJT'IO~ (c.>0penS'14telMapcontnt1'Uon:. EXHIBIT I-1REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD LAND-USE BREAKOUTCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022Land-Use Boundaries as of December 202021690.00 Reg Loc: ReglocTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 12 of 142Legend c::Jw18{1& $0(ltb 8,t.ch Okte Ca.f1sbed IR·A, Rnldlt'.nta'I Ag1icuaturo IR--A, RKld&cnlalll AQ11Culrur& IR-A, f:tn-lCl8'flt.1 Agni;:.,a;urtJ IR-E, Ri.rel R&Sldftt'lhdt E!lltal.e IR-1, One F'Mn .. yK•5N1•nt1111 IR-1, One Fattnit:(R85.ldent.el IR 1, 0 n• f'aau•y R•:1nd•nt111I IR-1, 0 n■ Fannly R■sN1ant111I IR-1, One Fea1llly Re.,kient.191 IR-1, On• FamlllyRe,.lde,11~! IR-1, One F'(Ml'lityR•5IO•nt•I IR-1, 0 ne FMl'Uly Re!.ldem•I IR-1, 011■ F'Mn .. 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Pll,n11e,d lodustnel -P..M, Plllnil'lftd lndustnll!lil -·P~wi,o. P1t1iir~,;11 •~u~1~1..'(lnN;l(I P-U. Pul:IIIC. UIMy P-C, PleMecl ComrnuMy 11..•C, L11rutad Cocilrol -OS, Open S(>ace -T~C, Traru-pol1ntion CorrlCli>.1 dido iein Lcucodio ~ .. t.,-1_,<.edullll...t ~ -w ~ .. r Dr Ir ld:I• Q. -t-.... 1 ,;, d Vi&1a • Olivc-nhoin £1cQ""' '1-l)~J ~°'',e,, "'1 !;I W Q.c.d..,., A.d 8or d..,_ ~~ ~ f San Morc-os • 0.5 ~ Mile, I REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD SURROUNDING TRANSITCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022EXHIBIT I-1Oceanside Transit CenterCarlsbad Village Coastal StopYellow Dotted Lines: Represent various bus routes that run through Carlsbad and the surrounding citiesRedSolid Line: Represents the Coaster Commuter Rail that passes through Carlsbad with a station in the Carlsbad Village and a station in Oceanside McClellan-Palomar AirportCarlsbad Blvd & Poinsettia Ln Stop21690.00 Reg Loc: ReglocTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 13 of 142Pac,flc Legend c:=J Carlsbad 1, Al Rail Intercity Stations Bus Rail Tram, Streetcar, Light rail I ol;,enhoin 'C'C J g"'..,,od•J ~~ Twin Ooks Son Morc,ru. ,. Morcos I 0.5 E1-fl HERE G.ann,n (c)Ope.riSueeOAap corwtri1.uJtors, end 111eOIS user commun,i9 EXHIBIT I-1REGIONAL LOCATION NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL PROFILECARLSBADJANUARY 2022Village•Residential densities established in 2007 permit homes to be built in a mannerappropriate for small downtown. •Residential and commercial uses may exit side-by-side or in an mixed use format•Buildings maybe attached or detached, and located near the front property line, or allowfor an area for either small courtyards, outdoor dining or open space, and/or additionallandscaping.Olde Carlsbad•Olde Carlsbad is the city's oldest neighborhood, dating to the late 1800s, Up on the hills,there are still some historic homes with views of the ocean.•Further west, streets have a mix of mid-20th-century bungalows, cottages, and tract homes.•Apartments and Condos along El Camino Real are close to the neighborhood's shoppingand dining.South Beach•Nestled between Interstate 5 and the Pacific Ocean•Residential is a mixture of several beachfront Master planned communities andmobile home park•Homes along Poinsettia Ln are close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining.Industrial Core•Apartments and single family residences located at north corner of the area withspectacular Ocean views and easy access to work and attractions. Poinsettia/ Aviara•Set in the hills of Southern Carlsbad, overlooking the Pacific Ocean and Batiquitos Lagoon.•The community is mostly residential, Many properties have views of the ocean, Batiquitos Lagoon, and Aviara golf course.•Most of the homes in Aviara are fairly new, having been built in the 90s. There has beenlimited new construction in Aviara (one exception is Vista Del Mar) but several newersubdivisions (The Bay Collection, Emerald Point) have been built nearby.•Aviara homes are primarily tract housing, with each community offering a number of floorplans, but a consistent look of style (primarily Spanish and Mediterranean) and feel.Source: TCGVillageOlde CarlsbadIndustrial CorePoinsettiaAviaraSouth Beach21554.00 Maps: Neighborhoods1Page 1 of 2THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 14 of 142Escondido Juncliori South Ocean.slde Pacific 0,:-ean Corls L.----,--------' 1 o 0.32!0.65 I I I I I I <1 l :l .,, •• 1.3 M;les I I I EXHIBIT I-1REGIONAL LOCATION - KEY NEIGHBORHOOD RATIONALECARLSBADJANUARY 2022Village•Historically popular location for retail development. Highest share of Accommodations and Food Services job sector within the city (2019). This Sector is the second highestemployment sector within the city of Carlsbad.•Historical Development map shows a high concentration of retail and office development in a relatively small pocket that makes up the village neighborhood across allobserved decades predating the 1970's.•Highest level of annual net absorption at 74k SF with average NNN asking rents of $42 and a five year average growth of 9.5%. All metrics indicate a currently strong retail market •From 2019-202 (COVID-19 recession) NNN increased 34% to $45, but have since had a correction in 2021 dropping 8%.•Future Demand in the Village is negative -455 SF annually, indicating a slight oversaturation in the market for new retail space.•Conclusion: The Village is a key retail/ tourism hub within the city with strong rents, plenty of retail/ eatery type employment and resiliency to COVID related economic forces.Olde Carlsbad•Similar to the Village, Olde Carlsbad has historically been an area of high levels of retail and office development across the last five-six decades.•The strongest local employment sector in Olde Carlsbad is the Retail sector followed by the Accommodations and Food Services sector.•Olde Carlsbad is one of a few neighborhoods within the city that saw positive net absorption of retail spaces over the last four quarters with NNN asking rents at a strong $39. •Future retail demand for Olde Carlsbad is a positive 12K annually, indicating a need for new retail space to accommodate for the growing population and HH base of thatneighborhood.South Beach•Located on the Pacific coastline and bookended by the i-5 freeway, most of South Beach's historical retail and office development has occurred along the freeway. •One of the lowest NNN retail space asking rents at $24, indicative of the neighborhoods lack of class A retail space. •Future retail demand for South Beach is positive 5K annually•Office market vacancy rates are at a low of 2.6%, the lowest of all observed time-periods and have not seen any new deliveries since 2009.Industrial Core•The Industrial Core is the employment hub of the city and considering the high inflow of daily commuters, the employment hub of the major surrounding cities.•As of 2019 the industrial core employs the most individuals across the cities top employment sectors, including the top two sectors, Manufacturing and Professional Serv.•Industrial Core is the community with highest level of office inventory by SF at 3.4M SF as of 1Q22 •Unlike most neighborhoods surveyed, and having the highest level of current office inventory, the industrial core has experienced a positive five year average of annualpositive net absorption (SF)•Industrial Core is attaining an average of $31 in gross direct rents for office space over the last five years, relatively the middle of the pack of all observed neighborhoods.Poinsettia/ Aviara•Poinsettia neighborhood currently has the second highest level of office space at 1.1M SF•Outside of 2020-21, Poinsettia has experienced mostly positive annual net absorption.•Future annual retail demand is at a slight negative at -39 SF annually.•Poinsettia and Aviara are attaining the highest level of NNN retail asking rents $51 and $48 respectively with low vacancy rates of 0.8% (Aviara) and 2.3% (Poinsettia). The•overall average NNN asking rents in Carlsbad overall is $39, considerably lower.Rancho La Costa•Similar to Industrial Core, Rancho La Costa has a high concentration of employment in Carlsbad's top five key sectors with its highest share of employment in theretail and accommodation and food services sector.•Rancho La Costa also has a high NNN retail asking rent compared to other observed neighborhoods at $48•Future annual retail demand for Rancho La Costa is at 15k likely due to lower levels of inflow of spending from outside of the area compared to other neighborhoods such asthe industrial core with a very high level of inflow spending resulting in a net negative need for additional retail space.Source: TCGVillageOlde CarlsbadIndustrial CorePoinsettiaAviaraSouth BeachRancho La CostaVillageOlde CarlsbadSouth BeachIndustrial CorridorAviaraPoinsettiaRancho La CostaSubtotalsCarlsbadHH1,9253,5691,7791,0143,1164,7397,03523,17744,107% of Carlsbad4.4%8.1%4.0%2.3%7.1%10.7%15.9%52.5%---Total Jobs4,9574,7095,11726,0952,42012,9564,99361,24778,135% of Carlsbad6.3%6.0%6.5%33.4%3.1%16.6%6.4%78.4%---Top Sectors (1)3,4252,0872,80513,0781,7204,3354,09523,11537,920% of Total Jobs69.1%44.3%54.8%50.1%71.1%33.5%82.0%37.7%---% of Carlsbad9.0%5.5%7.4%34.5%4.5%11.4%10.8%61.0%---(1) Top Sectors include: Retail Trade, Information, Prof./ Scientific Serv., Healthcare, Arts & Enter and Accomodation and Food Services.21554.00 Maps: Neighborhoods (3)Page 2 of 2THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 15 of 142~-,. ~,._.• '-'•'°O' Oc:.,on1ide BJ,,,(I, Ocear'lsido (1-_.,,.,.. Escondido Junction t';._ Soulh C: Ock!nside _, .. • ~,· r I J Carlsbad /~ I Pactfic Ocaan I r I \ Villa -I I q ~· 1~"'; C / -.,,.Co'1a,._ ~UCO .,~~ Encinlras ~ 1' Cardiff ~ by the Scinto F♦ 0, ~ Seo "' ... • Vis.ta OliYenhoin P<>ort,ill<; 1 L, M E..-,,HERE EXHIBIT I-1SITE ASSESSMENTCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022CharacteristicsEvaluation•Regional Location+Major Coastal City within San Diego's North County Region.+Surrounded by 5 of the major cities in the North County region whom all have strong portions of their employment5.0base traveling into Carlsbad for work including: Oceanside and Vista to the North, San Marcos and Escondido tothe east, and Encinitas to the south.•Accessibility and Surrounding Area+Two major freeways run through the city of Carlsbad, the interstate 5 freeway running along the coast north5.0and south bound, and the 78 highway that runs along the northern border of the city running east to west.+Access to the coaster commuter rail with a stop in the village neighborhood of Carlsbad offering residentsalternative transportation access to surrounding sites and employment nodes. Rail connects Carlsbad to southernSan Diego with final stops in the downtown core and as far north as Los Angeles.•Employment•Employment Sectors+In the San Diego Metro, Professional Services Employment industries saw the least impact duringCOVID-recessionary period of 2020. Industry shows the least growth potential but a key sector of data processing 4.5is showing strongest growth and shift share potential within the Professional Services industry.+Medical employment industries also experienced considerable declines in 2020. but with potential overallforecasted growth on par with the San Diego metro employment overall. Notable sectors of this indisutry include: DentalOffices ('19-'20 -12%) , Nursing and Residential Care ('19-'20 -5%), and Medical and Diagnostic Labs ('19-'20 -6.5%)-Tourism and recreation based employment in the San Diego metro were significantly impacted during 2020.Forecasted growth is strong, but tourism industry overall will not recover all COVID related job losses in the next five years.•Overall Assessment+Opportunity to continue growth of key neighborhoods such as the employment rich industrial core. Severalcompanies look to either expand their footprint or relocate to the city of Carlsbad in the coming years in key4.8industries such as biotech and communication, making the area a prime location for high earning jobs.+In the city of Carlsbad, forecasted population growth of households earning over $100K annually over the next five years is strongand should further fuel the need for employers offering high earning jobs in moderate to higher-end office space.Note: Scores based on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a competitive disadvantage and 5 being a competitive advantage to local area comparable21690.00 Site Eval: SumThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 16 of 142□ □ □ □ EXHIBIT I-1RETAIL SUMMARYCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022SUMMARYMARKET SNAPSHOTEmployment Characteristics●Carlsbad's retail sector is anchored by several key retail nodes: Carlsbad Premium Outlets(South Beach Neighborhood), The Forum at Carlsbad (Rancho La Costa Neighborhood),Carlsbad Plaza South (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), The Shoppes at Carlsbad (OldeCarlsbad Neighborhood), and Village Faire (Village Neighborhood).●Historically, Carlsbad has also enjoyed a reasonably strong tourism sector that feed's intoretail activity for the city.●The San Diego-Carlsbad MSA experienced significant declines in tourism and retail tradeemployment sectors due to COVID-recession forces.●From 2010-2019 of the major cities observed in North County, Carlsbad (9.9% annualizedgrowth) was only outpaced by San Marcos (11.2% annualized growth) in shift share andannual job growth in the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Sector.●At the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA level, Leisure and Hospitality and Accommodation and foodsservices sectors are poised for the strong snap-back from the COVID-recession period with allexceeding 7% annualized job growth and over 10% growth in shift share. over the next fiveyear period.Retail Characteristics●Carlsbad has over 5M SF of retail space. It has the highest amount of retail space among allthe major cities surveyed in North County. ●Though occupancy rates are slightly down over the past two years ('20 92.3% vs '21 91.5%) thefive year average has hovered just over 95% and the ten year average at 96%.●Of the neighborhoods surveyed within Carlsbad, the Industrial core and South remainedrelatively resilient to COVID-recession forces with occupancies that increased during therecession period to upwards of 98%. The Village was less resilient during the onset ofCOVID-recession restrictions (86.6%), but has since recovered to just over 94% with a five yearhistorical average of 95%.●As of 2021 NNN lease rates in Carlsbad ($37.61) greatly exceed the North County average($25.39) and is highest among the surrounding major cities surveyed.●The Industrial Core and Village are both achieving $42 NNN lease rates with Olde Carlsbadclose behind with $39 NNN lese rates.Demand●Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture just 12K SF of futuredemand annually, and according to current opportunity gaps has over -330K SF ofunfulfilled retail space, due to high level of inflow spending form outside of the city.●Considering that tourism accounts for a portion of retail spending and further taking intoaccount the high level of employee inflow to Carlsbad from surrounding cities, there areseveral categories that are experiencing leakage, in particular with key retail categories such aseating and drinking establishments and clothing and accessories stores.●These categories have some of the highest leakage in Carlsbad neighborhoods that are eitherhistorical more tourist oriented ( South Beach, Village ) or have a high concentrationemployment node (Industrial Core).Retail Development Heat Map as of February 202216%13%10%15%9%7%5%2%5%2%3%1%2021 San Diego MSA EmploymentProfessional & Business ServicesEducation & Health ServicesLeisure & HospitalityGovernmentRetail TradeManufacturingFinancial ActivitiesTransportation, Warehousing & UtilitiesConstructionWholesale TradeOther Services (except Public Admin.)InformationNatural Resources & Mining21690.00 Site Eval: RetailThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 17 of 142• • • • • • • • • • • • • EXHIBIT I-1RETAIL SUMMARYCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022SUMMARYMARKET SNAPSHOTConclusion●Despite COVID-recessionary forces, Carlsbad will continue to have a moderately strong retailand tourism employment base. As other office/ manufacturing employment nodes continue todevelop coupled with a growing population and HH base ('21-'26 2.5% growth), the continuedneed for moderate to high-end retail space with various dining and shopping options. Theinland regions that are more residential oriented may benefit most from new large scale retailspaces that are closer to home rather than traveling to more coastal areas that have wellestablished large retail nodes. The employment rich industrial core will also benefit from morewalkable retail spaces that offer various types of eateries and boutique shopping experiences.80%85%90%95%100%-250-200-150-100-500501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Net Absorption and Deliveries (SF)Carlsbad Annual Retail Vacancy/ Absorption/ DeliveriesAbsorptionDeliveriesOccupancy$39.90$36.52$25$30$35$40$45$502015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)21690.00 Site Eval: RetailThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 18 of 142----- EXHIBIT I-1OFFICE SUMMARYCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022SUMMARYMARKET SNAPSHOTEmployment Characteristics●Carlsbad's office use largely consists of medical, and financial/ professional services.●Carlsbad holds a higher concentration of jobs than its surrounding four cities, which lendsitself to a higher inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad who do not reside withinCarlsbad. As of 2019 19% of all Carlsbad employment was concentrated in Finance/ RealEstate/ Prof. Services sector, positions that are traditionally performed in an office setting. Thenext closest being Encinitas at 13% of its employment base filling these roles.●Carlsbad also holds a high concentration of individuals employed in the health careprofession, with over 5,000 individuals employed in the sector accounting for 8% of totalemployment in Carlsbad. Of the four surrounding cities they are only second to Oceansidewith 7,000 individuals employed in the sector, accounting for 15% of their total employment.●Key employment sectors of note that have experienced relative resilience during COVID andare poised for future growth are: Data Processing ('16-'21 11.7% growth, 21-'26 4%forecasted growth) with a forecasted shift share of nearly 18% over the next five years. Severalmedical field office use saw significant declines during the initial COVID-recession period, butare since recovering with a few poised for growth in the next five year period. Outpatient carecenters ('19-'20 3.5% growth, '21-'26 3.3% forecasted growth) saw growth duringCOVID-recession period, with strong forecasted shift share of nearly 8% over the next fiveyear period. (Note growth metrics are at the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Level)Office Characteristics (Class A)●North County has over 11M SF of class A office space and Carlsbad has over 2M SF of classA office space. Year-to-date North County has had a total net absorption of 232K SF whileCarlsbad has had 18K SF.●COVID-Recession had a significant impact on net absorption for Carlsbad with a dip to -56Kin 2020, whereas in 2018 net absorption reached 289K and 2019 168k, showing somesensitivity to economic downturn.●Carlsbad is currently achieving $34.20 in direct rents while North County is achieving $44.11●The majority of the office space within Carlsbad is class B product at just over 5M SF spacecompared to the 2M SF of class A. COVID-Recession did have an impact on net absorption ofclass B product but did not decline to negative until 2021, showing slightly more resiliencyduring the recession, but there seems to be a shift in preference in office space towards classA product considering that net absorption for class A product increased to 18K SF in 2021after its drop in 2020.Demand●Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture nearly 124K SF offuture demand of North County. Of the nine major cities that make up North County,Carlsbad is poised to capture the highest share of North County with San Marcos coming inclose second at 102K SF.●Despite having the highest potential capture of office space in North County, Carlsbad isshowing one of the lower shares of potential pipeline throughout North County at only50,000K SF compared to San Marcos planning the highest amount of pipeline at 1.4M SF.Office Development Heat Map as of February 202216%13%10%15%9%7%5%2%5%2%3%1%2021 San Diego MSA EmploymentProfessional & Business ServicesEducation & Health ServicesLeisure & HospitalityGovernmentRetail TradeManufacturingFinancial ActivitiesTransportation, Warehousing & UtilitiesConstructionWholesale TradeOther Services (except Public Admin.)InformationNatural Resources & Mining21690.00 Site Eval: OfficeThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 19 of 142RBA Und,er 10,000 e 10,000-22.000 • 22,000-40,000 • 40,000-70,000 .70,000-115,000 .115,000-180,000 .180,000-450,000 -Ov .. ,450,000 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ • ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ __ ,.. __ _ EXHIBIT I-1OFFICE SUMMARYCARLSBAD, CAJANUARY 2022SUMMARYMARKET SNAPSHOTDemand Cont.●Of said demand, a subcategory of office space of note is the "flex" space uses. This subcategoryis defined by two key industries: Scientific R&D and Warehousing, both of which show thehighest levels of potential demand in office space in the county from 2021-22, but will taperoff in the following seven years observed. Scientif R&D is of particular note in that the categoryincludes life sciences office spaces, an office space in San Diego that is in high demand overthe last several years.Conclusion●Overall the city of Carlsbad is a hub of employment for the major surrounding cities, itshigher level of inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad but do not reside in Carlsbad onlyfurther fuels potential demand for high end class A office space. Carlsbad has shownmoderate/ steady growth in direct rents annually over the last 3 year period and relativeresiliency in those asking rents through the COVID-recession period. Despite holding aconsiderably larger share of current class A office compared to the surrounding cities, there isstill potential for further growth as demand for this particular use is higher than thesurrounding cities in North County. As the economy continues to reopen, workers will flowback into offices. Employers will look to differentiate themselves such as procuring astate-of-the-art office space with all of the amenity and working spaces desired and that arebecoming more common place in todays evolving office environment.70%75%80%85%90%95%100%-100-500501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Net Absorption and Deliveries (SF)Carlsbad Annual Class A Office Vacancy/ Absorption/ DeliveriesAbsorptionDeliveriesOccupancy21690.00 Site Eval: OfficeThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 20 of 142--Class A Office Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) $40 $35 31 $30 66 $25 2017 31.82 --2018 SL.I;:$ --2019 ... Carlsbad ')') ,.,, 3A. 2 --2020 2021 EXHIBT I-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY - RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Full Service Restaurants Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor/ Catere/ Mobile)Resident Spending (000s)Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales -Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Carlsbad Capacity Carlsbad Actual Sales Food & Beverage Store SpendingRestaurant& Drinking Places Spending 21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - NGAFO1 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 21 of 142I • EXHIBT I-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Resident Spending (000s)Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales Carlsbad Capacity Carlsbad Actual Sales Non -GAFONon -GAFOGAFO 21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - Capacity1 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 22 of 142■ I I I I - 1,.0 0"' ~<, 0"' •C, 0~ ~~ 1,.0 -2>"" 0"' o' ~,i'!i--~"' ~(J 0 ;.: ~ e:F' cP ;.: ~0' ~o 90 ~"' ;.: 1,.'< 90 «'-o ~ ~(:i, 90 ,§ 6" ~0 «"' '?-~~ ';:;o~ 0~ 'b- 0" '&(:i, o<:' ~(:i, ,c,v' 0 ~cf> ~ C, ~ ..:~l . c,J f'j\ 00 oo ~0 1,.'? ?:f' oJ ~0 ~ 0' 0"' <l0 0' ~ 'b-(§ o:;;s: d:-0 R 0~ (J ~(j 00 ":l ◊($ <l'-(:i, ~ <qfli (j . c,0 0' -~¢> ~0(:i, -~<,; -~¢> -~~ ~ 0.!/, ~ <1;,v" ~ 0 'b-~ ~~ ~~o 00 'b-() «o -~¢> «.,~ EXHIBT I-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - CURRENT RESIDENT SPENDING GAP CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other -$100,000 -$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 Resident Spending vs. Sales Gap (000s)Resident Spending Gap Carlsbad Spending Gap Non -GAFONon -GAFOGAFO Negative spending gap indicates inflow of spending from outside the resident base (employees, visitors etc.) and outflow of resident spending to outside areas 21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - Gap The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 23 of 142r---------------------------■ □ 0<, ~,0,., ,e,0 ;..0 0<, -::P 0<, ~C, 0;;:,.. ::,..;;:,.. ;..0 . (Ye, 0<, o' . .} I: o" ·:;<..°" ,:-0 00 I: ◊~ v,::; I: ~0' «.,'-o'" qp 90 ~"' I: ;..'-90 .,o ◊<:' ~ ~(:j ~ 90 ,§ (Y ~&-0 ~ 0<, o' «.."'' 1?-4< ':$)~ 0~ 't:J- 0" .}(:j ,e,C,' 0 ~0 c.,O ~0' ~<, o<:' v,.,1o 't:J-~ . e,<o\ iP 00 0 ~ 1,.<o 00~ ~ ◊?:-, ,:-◊J (Y ~ o,.,, !l,.,, <o (J'o 0<, ~0 (§ 0' <)0~ 0' ;jo 0~ 0 't:J-~(j 0~ ~ 00 "-:>°"~ ~,<:, ~ ,~ 00<:' <qe; (j ◊($ x-0(5 -,:-~ G 0' ,,:-◊J ~e,0 0' ,,:-◊J -~~ 0.s. ~ ,:)°" o:;s' ~" a 't:J-<o ~~ <o <-:,~o 00 't:J-<:J «._0 ,,:-◊J &' ~ EXHIBT I-1 RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - ACTUAL TOTAL SALES - RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE CALRSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 -$100,000 -$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 Full Service Restaurants Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor/ Catere/ Mobile)Resident Spending vs. Sales Gap (000s)Resident Spending Gap -Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Carlsbad Spending Gap Negative spending gap indicates inflow of spending from outside the resident base (employees, visitors etc.) and outflow of resident spending to outside areas Food & Beverage Store SpendingRestaurant& Drinking Places Spending 21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - gap NGAFO (2)The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 24 of 142- I I I I I I I I I I I ~----------------------------------- EXHIBIT II-2AEMPLOYMENT TRENDS - TOTALSAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA1999 THROUGH 2026United StatesSan Diego MSAGrowthGrowth000sNum.Num.Perc.Num.Num.Perc.Annual1999129,2263,0902.4%1,16045.04.0%2000132,0182,7922.2%1,20039.93.4%2001132,080620.0%1,22524.92.1%2002130,637(1,443)(1.1%)1,23712.71.0%2003130,328(309)(0.2%)1,24911.40.9%2004131,7571,4291.1%1,27021.11.7%2005134,0222,2651.7%1,29323.21.8%2006136,4342,4121.8%1,31420.61.6%2007137,9781,5431.1%1,3228.70.7%2008137,225(753)(0.5%)1,315(7.5)(0.6%)2009131,289(5,936)(4.3%)1,249(66.0)(5.0%)2010130,337(952)(0.7%)1,240(8.7)(0.7%)2011131,9221,5851.2%1,2509.90.8%2012134,1572,2351.7%1,28332.72.6%2013136,3562,1991.6%1,31633.42.6%2014138,9222,5671.9%1,34528.72.2%2015141,8042,8822.1%1,38539.93.0%2016144,3332,5291.8%1,42237.52.7%2017146,5952,2621.6%1,45229.62.1%2018148,8932,2981.6%1,48230.32.1%2019150,9002,0071.3%1,50421.41.4%2020142,252(8,648)(5.7%)1,385(118.8)(7.9%)2021146,1473,8942.7%1,41025.11.8%Quarterly1Q21142,1431,3742Q21145,4433,3012.3%1,40328.02.0%3Q21147,0661,6231.1%1,4097.00.5%Forecast2022151,8105,6633.9%1,47363.04.5%2023154,3532,5441.7%1,50026.51.8%2024155,6561,3030.8%1,51919.21.3%2025156,2245680.4%1,53212.90.9%2026156,7104860.3%1,5408.10.5%5-Yr Avg.154,9512,1131.4%1,51325.91.8%Historical Average5-Yr363(0.1%)(2.5)(0.6%)10-Yr1,4231.0%16.01.0%Note: All employment figures represent year end unless otherwise notedSource: Annual- Moody's (updated 01/25/2022); Quarterly - BLS-9%-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Job Growth (%)San Diego MSAUnited States (line)Total Employment (% Change)Forecast21421.00 Employment Trends: JobsThe Concord Group19DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 25 of 142c=J-' ' ' ' ' d·~ ,1 I l \ >-,, II , ' I ' [:~~ I ' ;,,. I ' ", I ' I ' -, f; •· .. 1 Jl i ' ~ _, ' ' n ~ , ~ \ ' I \ I 1H \ ' I \ I I I :~ f.l. \ I - - -• '+ >--' >->->->->-' ~11 ' ill I I ' ~\ I, I l"rr-~ ' I I I I I I' l ii , \ I \l l! I I \ I I \ I ~ I I \ I I I \ I I I \ I I : l I ~ i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I I I I I ' : i : I I I , , I '• I ,, I; : ~ . , ' ,, ' •• ' '• ' ,, ~ ' ' i I ' ' ' ' - EXHIBIT I-2BEMPLOYMENT TRENDS - BY INDUSTRYSAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA2006 THROUGH 20262006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Ann. Growth% MSA EmploymentAnnual Employment (000s)Forecast'21-'26Shift ShareEmployment Industry (000s)200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026'09-'1919-'2020-'21'16-'21%#20212026Nom.%Government2182222252242302292282302322362422462482492372352412442482502521.0%-4.7%-0.9%-0.6%1.4%314.7%14.4%-0.3%-2.0%Retail Trade1481481421321311331371411441471471491481461341391421431421411401.0%-8.1%3.9%-1.1%0.1%08.7%8.0%-0.7%-7.9%Manufacturing104103103979697981001021071081091121161141141151141121111091.8%-1.7%0.2%1.0%-0.9%-17.1%6.3%-0.9%-12.4%Education & Health Services1381441541631651681751811861931992042092172102142242322352352352.9%-3.1%1.7%1.5%1.9%413.4%13.5%0.1%0.6%Construction9387766155555761647076808484828691929292913.2%-2.6%5.3%2.5%1.1%15.4%5.2%-0.2%-3.3%Professional & Business Services2182222212032032052112192232292352392492562482542592562552562582.3%-3.2%2.6%1.6%0.3%115.9%14.8%-1.1%-7.0%Leisure & Hospitality1551601631531531541601671761821901962002021451531761912052172242.8%-28.0%5.0%-4.3%8.0%149.6%12.8%3.3%34.1%Financial Activities8480757067677071707173757677747375757574750.9%-3.0%-1.6%0.0%0.5%04.6%4.3%-0.3%-6.1%Transport., Warehousing & Utilities2929292727262727272830323334333334343434342.3%-3.2%-1.7%1.9%0.5%02.0%1.9%-0.1%-6.0%Wholesale Trade4647464242434546454444444444414040404040390.4%-7.0%-3.4%-2.0%-0.1%02.5%2.3%-0.2%-9.1%Other Services (exc. Public Admin.)4848484746484949525354555656454853555759591.9%-21.0%6.9%-2.6%4.4%23.0%3.4%0.4%13.5%Information323131282524242424232323242422222323232323-1.8%-6.1%1.4%-0.7%0.8%01.4%1.3%-0.1%-4.8%Natural Resources & Mining0000000000000000000001.8%-13.5%3.9%1.3%6.5%00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Health care and social assistance1171221301361391411461521561631691751801871831881972042062062073.2%-2.0%2.6%2.1%2.0%411.7%11.8%0.1%0.8%Total Non-Farm (000)1,3141,3221,3151,2491,2401,2501,2831,3161,3451,3851,4221,4521,4821,5041,3851,4101,4731,5001,5191,5321,5401.9%-7.9%1.8%-0.2%1.8%25.9100%100%Y/Y Change (000) 20.6 8.7 -7.5 -66.0 -8.7 9.9 32.7 33.4 28.739.9 37.5 29.6 30.3 21.4 -118.8 25.163.0 26.5 19.2 12.9 8.1% Change1.6%0.7%-0.6%-5.0%-0.7%0.8%2.6%2.6%2.2%3.0%2.7%2.1%2.1%1.4%-7.9%1.8%4.5%1.8%1.3%0.9%0.5%Cumulative Gain/Loss:1.7%2.3%9.9%4.5%9.2%Note: All employment figures represent year endShift Share: Indicates an industry/ sectors employment growth and competitiveness in the San Diego MSA. It helps determine if a specific industry showed faster or slower growth/ decline in comparison with other industries/ sectors over a certain time period. Source: Moody's (updated 01/25/2022)Return to pre-recessionemployment in 2014(18%)(16%)(14%)(12%)(10%)(8%)(6%)(4%)(2%)0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Employees (000)Employment Growth & Annual Employment ChangeTotal Non-Farm EmploymentTotal Non-Farm Employment Y/Y ChangeEmployment Change (%)Forecast16%13%10%15%9%7%5%2%5%2%3%1%2021 San Diego MSA EmploymentProfessional & Business ServicesEducation & Health ServicesLeisure & HospitalityGovernmentRetail TradeManufacturingFinancial ActivitiesTransportation, Warehousing & UtilitiesConstructionWholesale TradeOther Services (except Public Admin.)InformationNatural Resources & MiningReturn to pre-COVID21690.00 Employment Trends: IndustryThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 26 of 142 --+-i I I --1 --1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I --1 --1 c=Jc=J:r----1~---t r-l -~ -~----------■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT I-2BEMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNSSAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA2009 THROUGH 2026Overall Employment IndustriesTourism Employment IndustriesAnn. Growth% MSA EmploymentAnn. Growth% MSA Employment'21-'26Shift Share'21-'26Shift Share'09-'1919-'2020-'21'16-'21%#20212026Nom.%'09-'1919-'2020-'21'16-'21%#20212026Nom.%Government1.0%-4.7%-0.9%-0.6%1.4%314.7%14.4%-0.3%-2.0%Retail Trade1.0%-8.1%3.9%-1.1%0.1%022%17%-4.9%-22.6%Retail Trade1.0%-8.1%3.9%-1.1%0.1%08.7%8.0%-0.7%-7.9%Leisure & Hospitality2.8%-28.0%5.0%-4.3%8.0%1424%27%3.0%12.7%Manufacturing1.8%-1.7%0.2%1.0%-0.9%-17.1%6.3%-0.9%-12.4%Clothing and accessories stores0.9%-24.3%16.9%-3.5%0.4%02%2%-0.5%-21.6%Education & Health Services2.9%-3.1%1.7%1.5%1.9%413.4%13.5%0.1%0.6%Sporting goods stores-1.7%-1.8%17.4%1.3%-0.9%01%1%-0.3%-26.6%Construction3.2%-2.6%5.3%2.5%1.1%15.4%5.2%-0.2%-3.3%General merchandise stores-1.1%-7.9%5.4%-1.1%-0.4%04%3%-1.0%-24.8%Professional & Business Services2.3%-3.2%2.6%1.6%0.3%115.9%14.8%-1.1%-7.0%Miscellaneous store retailers1.2%-18.8%1.4%-2.6%0.6%01%1%-0.2%-20.9%Leisure & Hospitality2.8%-28.0%5.0%-4.3%8.0%149.6%12.8%3.3%34.1%Water transportation10.9%-36.2%-6.7%64.3%-2.1%00%0%0.0%-30.8%Financial Activities0.9%-3.0%-1.6%0.0%0.5%04.6%4.3%-0.3%-6.1%Passenger Transportation4.4%-37.5%-15%-12.5%-2.3%00%0%-0.1%-31.6%Transport., Warehousing & Utilities2.3%-3.2%-1.7%1.9%0.5%02.0%1.9%-0.1%-6.0%Scenic and sightseeing transportation1.5%-29.7%28.6%-1.1%1.9%00%0%0.0%-15.7%Wholesale Trade0.4%-7.0%-3.4%-2.0%-0.1%02.5%2.3%-0.2%-9.1%Food services and drinking places3.3%-24.2%6.6%-3.0%7.9%1017%20%2.1%12.2%Other Services (exc. Public Admin.)1.9%-21.0%6.9%-2.6%4.4%23.0%3.4%0.4%13.5%Accommodation and food services2.9%-26.5%5.8%-3.7%7.7%1221%23%2.4%11.5%Information-1.8%-6.1%1.4%-0.7%0.8%01.4%1.3%-0.1%-4.8%Food and beverage stores1.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.1%05%4%-1.1%-22.6%Natural Resources & Mining1.8%-13.5%3.9%1.3%6.5%00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Arts; entertainment; and recreation2.2%-36.4%-0.7%-7.9%9.5%23%4%0.6%20.9%Health care and social assistance3.2%-2.0%2.6%2.1%2.0%411.7%11.8%0.1%0.8%Total Employment Sector:2.2%-21.4%5.1%-3.0%5.4%39.0100%100%Total Non-Farm1.9%-7.9%1.8%-0.2%1.8%25.9100%100%From 2009 to 2019, in the San Diego MSA most employment sectors enjoyed stable growth with overall Total Non-Farm employment increasing 1.9%. However, with the onset of COVID-19 the tourism sector felt the highest negative impact with the medical sector showing most resilience, although still showing negative growth.The professional services sector has relatively shown the least amount of variance in growth across the time periods surveyed, with data processing jobs within the sector showing the most promise for future growth. The sector is showing a relatively low potential for future growth, but that could be due to the industries natural tendency for minimal sway from each time period.-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%% Change in Growth Over Four Time-PeriodsSan Diego MSA Major Employment Sectors'09-'1919-'2020-'21'21-'26-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%% Change in Growth Over Four Time-PeriodsSan Diego MSA Key Tourism Employment Sectors'09-'1919-'2020-'21'21-'2621421.00 Employment Trends: Industry Breakdownthe concord groupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 27 of 142-----------------------• • • I ♦ • l • • I • • :r • • ·--•-· I • •--•--I ~ • • • I I I • • • I ~ • • • • • • • I ' I i • r ' l I I l • I • • • • l • I • • • • • • • • • • EXHIBIT I-2BEMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNSSAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA2009 THROUGH 2026Medical Employment IndustriesProfessional Services Employment IndustriesAnn. Growth% MSA EmploymentAnn. Growth% MSA Employment'21-'26Shift Share'21-'26Shift Share'09-'1919-'2020-'21'16-'21%#20212026Nom.%'09-'1919-'2020-'21'16-'21%#20212026Nom.%Ambulatory health care services4.5%-3.6%4.8%1.8%2.2%216%17%0.3%1.9%Government1.0%-4.7%-0.9%-0.6%1.4%325%26%0.9%3.7%Hospitals-0.2%1.5%0.4%1.8%0.6%05%4%-0.3%-5.7%Real estate1.3%-1.0%1.8%1.7%1.2%03%3%0.1%2.9%Nursing and residential care facilities2.3%-5.0%-1.5%0.0%-0.4%05%5%-0.5%-10.3%Finance and insurance0.7%-1.3%-4.0%-0.5%0.3%05%5%-0.1%-2.0%Social assistance3.6%0.5%2.5%4.0%3.2%211%12%0.7%6.9%Securities and Commodity's1.2%-0.9%-2.2%1.4%0.9%01%1%0.0%1.3%Health care and social assistance3.2%-2.0%2.6%2.1%2.0%437%37%0.2%0.7%Professional; scientific; and technical services2.5%-1.8%3.7%2.7%-0.1%016%15%-0.6%-3.8%Offices of physicians3.0%-4.1%2.0%-0.5%1.2%06%6%-0.2%-3.1%Scientific Research and Services2.0%1.9%10.1%4.0%0.2%04%4%-0.1%-2.3%Offices of dentists2.3%-12.2%15.9%2.0%2.7%02%2%0.1%4.2%Professional & Business Services2.3%-3.2%2.6%1.6%0.3%127%27%-0.4%-1.6%Offices of other health practitioners5.0%-1.2%11.1%4.9%3.2%02%2%0.1%7.0%Management of companies and enterprises4.1%-1.4%2.4%2.0%-0.1%03%2%-0.1%-3.6%Outpatient care centers7.3%3.5%-0.2%5.0%3.3%13%3%0.2%7.7%Financial Activities0.9%-3.0%-1.6%0.0%0.5%08%8%0.0%-0.6%Medical and diagnostic laboratories8.2%-6.5%3.2%-1.7%1.8%01%1%0.0%0.1%Administrative and support services1.5%-6.4%0.7%-0.4%1.2%18%9%0.2%2.8%Home health care services6.7%-2.7%2.3%2.5%2.0%02%2%0.0%0.7%Educational services1.2%-9.6%-4.5%-2.6%1.6%03%3%0.1%5.0%Other ambulatory health care services4.7%-5.8%10.8%2.3%1.6%00%0%0.0%-1.2%Monetary authorities-central bank4.9%0.6%-1.8%1.7%0.5%00%0%0.0%-1.0%Hospitals-0.2%1.5%0.4%1.8%0.6%05%4%-0.3%-5.7%Credit intermediation and related activities-0.2%-1.1%-8.2%-2.5%-1.2%02%2%-0.2%-9.0%Nursing and residential care facilities2.3%-5.0%-1.5%0.0%-0.4%05%5%-0.5%-10.3%Data processing; hosting and related services11.1%2.6%20.2%11.7%4.0%00%0%0.1%17.9%100%100%Rental and leasing services1.3%-23.9%3.7%-3.3%-0.2%01%0%0.0%-3.9%Total Medical Sector:3.2%-2.3%2.6%1.9%1.8%9.6Total Professional Services Sector:1.7%-3.5%1.0%0.7%0.6%6.2100%100%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%% Change in Growth Over Four Time-PeriodsSan Diego MSA Key Medical Employment Sectors'09-'1919-'2020-'21'21-'26-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%% Change in Growth Over Four Time-PeriodsSan Diego MSA Key Professional Services Sector'09-'1919-'2020-'21'21-'2621421.00 Employment Trends: Industry Breakdownthe concord groupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 28 of 142----~---• • ' I . . ~ . . . •-J.--1 --+·--+·---l---L-1;_--t•---.·e---·L-I -·· I . -. • I • • • • • I • • • • -i------• I I • -~~-• • , • • I . ----•-•--•-· ... ' e e I e--.--1·--r---•--e • I • • • j I • • • • • • I I : EXHIBIT I-2C EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY GROWTH NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2010 AND 2019 Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Aviara Carlsbad North County 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift Jobs Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%10 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%2 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%18 0%76 0%3.3 17.4%321 23%34 1%0.1 -22.1%411 1%176 0%0.3 -9.0%9,131 2%8,752 2%0.8 -0.5%Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0%0 0%0.0 0.0%14 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%0 0%0 0%0.0 0.0%4 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%0 0%0 0%0.0 0.0%22 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%65 0%53 0%0.7 -2.2%Utilities 5 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%14 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%103 3%245 5%1.8 10.1%41 0%24 0%0.5 -5.8%8 1%0 0%0.0 -100.0%381 1%389 0%0.8 0.2%1,885 1%1,772 0%0.8 -0.7%Construction 114 3%147 3%1.1 2.9%113 2%285 6%3.0 10.8%111 3%289 6%2.0 11.2%461 2%349 1%0.6 -3.0%75 5%200 8%1.6 11.5%1,602 3%2,857 4%1.4 6.6%20,082 5%32,906 7%1.4 5.6%Manufacturing 30 1%26 1%0.8 -1.6%23 0%6 0%0.3 -13.9%92 2%75 1%0.6 -2.2%4,147 20%4,121 16%0.8 -0.1%11 1%0 0%0.0 -100.0%9,361 15%11,459 15%1.0 2.3%43,247 11%55,846 12%1.1 2.9% Wholesale Trade 102 2%36 1%0.3 -10.9%106 2%23 0%0.3 -15.6%200 5%316 6%1.2 5.2%1,558 8%3,180 12%1.6 8.3%16 1%32 1%1.2 8.0%4,545 7%5,589 7%1.0 2.3%17,773 5%19,250 4%0.9 0.9%Retail Trade 232 5%324 7%1.2 3.8%1,662 30%865 18%0.6 -7.0%314 8%424 8%1.0 3.4%2,252 11%3,028 12%1.1 3.3%214 15%177 7%0.5 -2.1%7,222 12%8,576 11%0.9 1.9%39,524 11%44,172 10%0.9 1.2%Transportation and Warehousing 50 1%52 1%0.9 0.4%21 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%56 1%125 2%1.7 9.3%229 1%328 1%1.1 4.1%19 1%1 0%0.0 -27.9%612 1%929 1%1.2 4.7%4,143 1%6,439 1%1.3 5.0% Information 11 0%3 0%0.2 -13.4%169 3%47 1%0.3 -13.3%54 1%175 3%2.5 14.0%825 4%427 2%0.4 -7.1%36 3%62 3%1.0 6.2%1,681 3%1,329 2%0.6 -2.6%8,869 2%7,669 2%0.7 -1.6%Finance and Insurance 184 4%120 2%0.6 -4.6%91 2%37 1%0.5 -9.5%181 5%107 2%0.5 -5.7%757 4%774 3%0.8 0.2%52 4%66 3%0.7 2.7%2,145 3%1,983 3%0.7 -0.9%12,472 3%13,048 3%0.9 0.5% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 149 3%195 4%1.1 3.0%59 1%53 1%1.1 -1.2%298 8%237 5%0.6 -2.5%553 3%443 2%0.6 -2.4%28 2%32 1%0.7 1.5%1,803 3%1,487 2%0.7 -2.1%7,805 2%9,340 2%1.0 2.0%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 268 6%242 5%0.8 -1.1%215 4%162 3%0.9 -3.1%340 9%713 14%1.6 8.6%3,001 15%3,871 15%1.0 2.9%122 9%169 7%0.8 3.7%5,979 10%9,387 12%1.2 5.1%33,562 9%38,559 8%0.9 1.6%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%0 0%0 0%0.0 0.0%27 1%144 3%4.1 20.4%776 4%1,172 4%1.2 4.7%0 0%1 0%0.0 0.0%898 1%2,287 3%2.0 10.9%3,513 1%6,249 1%1.5 6.6% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 235 5%160 3%0.6 -4.2%420 8%105 2%0.3 -14.3%433 11%460 9%0.8 0.7%1,782 9%1,413 5%0.6 -2.5%12 1%14 1%0.7 1.7%4,554 7%4,008 5%0.7 -1.4%24,504 7%27,098 6%0.9 1.1%Educational Services 162 4%201 4%1.1 2.4%704 13%678 14%1.1 -0.4%16 0%205 4%9.8 32.8%592 3%465 2%0.6 -2.6%89 6%173 7%1.1 7.7%3,256 5%3,827 5%0.9 1.8%32,862 9%42,375 9%1.1 2.9% Health Care and Social Assistance 1,285 30%928 19%0.6 -3.6%86 2%223 5%3.1 11.2%161 4%380 7%1.8 10.0%269 1%1,096 4%3.2 16.9%135 10%200 8%0.9 4.5%3,477 6%5,880 8%1.3 6.0%38,357 10%54,076 12%1.2 3.9%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 49 1%130 3%2.3 11.5%1 1%48 1%1.0 0.0%19 0%51 1%2.1 11.6%1,347 7%3,536 14%2.1 11.3%123 9%40 2%0.2 -11.7%2,002 3%4,671 6%1.8 9.9%12,595 3%13,406 3%0.9 0.7%Accommodation and Food Services 1,114 26%1,801 36%1.4 5.5%592 11%789 17%1.6 3.2%1,237 32%1,011 20%0.6 -2.2%1,455 7%1,547 6%0.8 0.7%95 7%1,134 47%7.0 31.7%7,815 13%9,406 12%1.0 2.1%40,652 11%51,686 11%1.1 2.7% Other Services (excluding Public Administration)312 7%334 7%0.9 0.8%129 2%107 2%1.0 -2.1%262 7%160 3%0.5 -5.3%569 3%245 1%0.3 -8.9%62 4%85 4%0.8 3.6%2,568 4%2,245 3%0.7 -1.5%17,883 5%15,844 3%0.7 -1.3%Public Administration 8 0%258 5%28.1 0.0%1,136 20%1,281 27%1.3 1.3%5 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%24 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%2 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%1,400 2%1,650 2%0.9 1.8%7,418 2%6,661 1%0.7 -1.2% Total 4,312 4,957 1.6%5,565 4,709 -1.8%3,911 5,117 3.0%20,660 26,095 2.6%1,420 2,420 6.1%61,734 78,135 2.7%376,342 455,201 2.1%Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 602 14%557 11%0.8 -0.9%365 7%252 5%0.8 -4.0%846 22%1,201 23%1.1 4.0%5,087 25%6,260 24%1.0 2.3%202 14%268 11%0.8 3.2%10,825 18%15,144 19%1.1 3.8%57,352 15%67,196 15%1.0 1.8%Excluding Educational Services 4,150 96%4,756 96%1.0 1.5%4,861 87%4,031 86%1.0 -2.1%3,895 100%4,912 96%1.0 2.6%20,068 97%25,630 98%1.0 2.8%1,331 94%2,247 93%1.0 6.0%58,478 95%74,308 95%1.0 2.7%343,480 91%412,826 91%1.0 2.1% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 1.21 0.24 0.79 0.63 2.31 0.62 0.33 0.89 3.06 1.021.03 2.48 1.60 1.80 2.05 1.06 0.41 1.02 3.23 2.08 0.94 0.62 1.24 1.34 1.84 0.92 0.71 0.95 1.17 0.88 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Shift Share -2010-2019 Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County From 2010 to 2019 , within the city of Calrsbad there are four distinct neighborhoods identified for their employment growth potential. The top performer across most employment categories has been the industrial core (green) and should continue to be the focus of continued growth. Of the selected key industries, the only sector that saw negative employment growth in the industrial core was information, which may be seen as a somewhat dying industry. 3.8% -13.4% -1.1% -3.6% 11.5% -7.0% -13.3% -3.1% 11.2% 0.0% 3.4% 14.0% 8.6%10.0% 11.6% 3.3% -7.1% 2.9% 16.9% 11.3% 1.9% -2.6% 5.1%6.0% 9.9% 1.2% -1.6% 1.6% 3.9% 0.7% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Annual Job Growth -2010-2019 Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County Thefour industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal. 21604.00 Macro2: JobGr Micromarkets The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 29 of 142--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- c=i c::::J c=i c::::J c=i c::::J c=i c::::J □ □ □ □ ■ □ -c=i [ c=i o □ = □ □ □ □ ■ □ EXHIBIT I-2C EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY GROWTHNORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2010 AND 2019 Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County20102019Shift20102019Shift20102019Shift20102019Shift20102019Shift20102019 Shift Jobs Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Num.Share Num.Share Share Gr/Yr Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 994 3%909 2%0.7 -1.0%1,755 5%2,199 5%1.1 2.5%400 1%717 2%1.4 6.7%342 2%271 1%0.7 -2.6%411 1%176 0%0.3 -9.0%9,131 2%8,752 2%0.8 -0.5% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 2 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%17 0%9 0%0.4 -6.8%1 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%0 0%1 0%0.0 0.0%22 0%0 0%0.0 -100.0%65 0%53 0%0.7 -2.2%Utilities 222 1%229 0%0.8 0.3%174 0%82 0%0.4 -8.0%173 1%111 0%0.5 -4.8%53 0%29 0%0.5 -6.5%381 1%389 0%0.8 0.2%1,885 1%1,772 0%0.8 -0.7%Construction 1,432 4%2,510 5%1.4 6.4%2,912 8%5,648 13%1.6 7.6%2,082 6%3,752 9%1.4 6.8%497 2%738 3%1.4 4.5%1,602 3%2,857 4%1.4 6.6%20,082 5%32,906 7%1.4 5.6%Manufacturing 2,167 6%4,780 10%1.8 9.2%7,564 21%8,197 19%0.9 0.9%4,859 15%4,224 10%0.7 -1.5%197 1%326 1%1.5 5.8%9,361 15%11,459 15%1.0 2.3%43,247 11%55,846 12%1.1 2.9%Wholesale Trade 1,464 4%1,659 4%0.9 1.4%3,839 11%3,586 8%0.8 -0.8%1,561 5%1,781 4%0.9 1.5%547 3%666 3%1.1 2.2%4,545 7%5,589 7%1.0 2.3%17,773 5%19,250 4%0.9 0.9% Retail Trade 5,079 13%5,365 11%0.8 0.6%3,410 10%4,201 10%1.0 2.3%3,164 10%3,432 8%0.9 0.9%2,918 14%3,022 13%1.0 0.4%7,222 12%8,576 11%0.9 1.9%39,524 11%44,172 10%0.9 1.2% Transportation and Warehousing 670 2%1,052 2%1.3 5.1%263 1%923 2%3.0 15.0%677 2%733 2%0.9 0.9%73 0%518 2%6.5 24.3%612 1%929 1%1.2 4.7%4,143 1%6,439 1%1.3 5.0% Information 396 1%381 1%0.8 -0.4%584 2%192 0%0.3 -11.6%282 1%251 1%0.7 -1.3%190 1%134 1%0.6 -3.8%1,681 3%1,329 2%0.6 -2.6%8,869 2%7,669 2%0.7 -1.6% Finance and Insurance 713 2%579 1%0.7 -2.3%425 1%558 1%1.1 3.1%449 1%540 1%0.9 2.1%514 2%522 2%0.9 0.2%2,145 3%1,983 3%0.7 -0.9%12,472 3%13,048 3%0.9 0.5% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 584 2%723 2%1.0 2.4%688 2%696 2%0.9 0.1%517 2%778 2%1.2 4.6%371 2%479 2%1.2 2.9%1,803 3%1,487 2%0.7 -2.1%7,805 2%9,340 2%1.0 2.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 3,414 9%1,740 4%0.4 -7.2%1,425 4%1,954 5%1.2 3.6%1,489 5%1,623 4%0.9 1.0%1,745 8%1,780 8%0.9 0.2%5,979 10%9,387 12%1.2 5.1%33,562 9%38,559 8%0.9 1.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 319 1%593 1%1.5 7.1%203 1%219 1%0.9 0.8%121 0%202 0%1.3 5.9%38 0%118 1%2.9 13.4%898 1%2,287 3%2.0 10.9%3,513 1%6,249 1%1.5 6.6% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 2,310 6%3,171 7%1.1 3.6%1,972 6%2,031 5%0.9 0.3%2,505 8%3,292 8%1.0 3.1%1,477 7%809 4%0.5 -6.5%4,554 7%4,008 5%0.7 -1.4%24,504 7%27,098 6%0.9 1.1% Educational Services 4,973 13%6,204 13%1.0 2.5%2,807 8%2,808 7%0.8 0.0%5,404 17%6,632 16%1.0 2.3%1,555 8%2,037 9%1.2 3.0%3,256 5%3,827 5%0.9 1.8%32,862 9%42,375 9%1.1 2.9% Health Care and Social Assistance 5,060 13%7,052 15%1.1 3.8%3,327 9%3,997 9%1.0 2.1%2,744 9%5,282 13%1.5 7.5%4,836 23%4,901 22%0.9 0.1%3,477 6%5,880 8%1.3 6.0%38,357 10%54,076 12%1.2 3.9% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 976 3%1,047 2%0.9 0.8%328 1%338 1%0.9 0.3%250 1%651 2%2.1 11.2%449 2%497 2%1.0 1.1%2,002 3%4,671 6%1.8 9.9%12,595 3%13,406 3%0.9 0.7% Accommodation and Food Services 4,125 11%6,213 13%1.2 4.7%2,342 7%3,041 7%1.1 2.9%2,973 9%4,745 12%1.3 5.3%3,024 15%3,658 16%1.1 2.1%7,815 13%9,406 12%1.0 2.1%40,652 11%51,686 11%1.1 2.7% Other Services (excluding Public Administration)1,874 5%1,847 4%0.8 -0.2%1,242 3%1,143 3%0.8 -0.9%1,363 4%1,478 4%0.9 0.9%1,442 7%1,571 7%1.0 1.0%2,568 4%2,245 3%0.7 -1.5%17,883 5%15,844 3%0.7 -1.3% Public Administration 882 2%922 2%0.8 0.5%422 1%455 1%0.9 0.8%1,137 4%480 1%0.3 -9.1%348 2%320 1%0.8 -0.9%1,400 2%1,650 2%0.9 1.8%7,418 2%6,661 1%0.7 -1.2% Total 37,656 46,976 2.5%35,699 42,277 1.9%32,151 40,704 2.7%20,616 22,397 0.9%61,734 78,135 2.7%376,342 455,201 2.1% Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 5,030 13%3,635 8%0.6 -3.5%2,741 8%3,427 8%1.1 2.5%2,576 8%3,143 8%1.0 2.2%2,668 13%2,899 13%1.0 0.9%10,825 18%15,144 19%1.1 3.8%57,352 15%67,196 15%1.0 1.8% Excluding Educational Services 32,683 87%40,772 87%1.0 2.5%32,892 92%39,469 93%1.0 2.0%26,747 83%34,072 84%1.0 2.7%19,061 92%20,360 91%1.0 0.7%58,478 95%74,308 95%1.0 2.7%343,480 91%412,826 91%1.0 2.1% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 0.85 0.77 0.41 1.12 0.86 1.04 0.28 1.16 1.01 0.870.86 0.70 0.86 1.52 2.06 0.95 0.65 0.94 0.93 1.020.94 0.62 1.24 1.34 1.84 0.92 0.71 0.95 1.17 0.88 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Shift Share - 2010-2019 Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County 0.6% -0.4% -7.2% 3.8% 0.8% 2.3% -11.6% 3.6% 2.1% 0.3%0.9% -1.3% 1.0% 7.5% 11.2% 0.4% -3.8% 0.2%0.1%1.1%1.9% -2.6% 5.1%6.0% 9.9% 1.2% -1.6% 1.6% 3.9% 0.7% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Annual Job Growth -2010-2019 Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County Thefour industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal. From 2010 to 2019 , the city of Carlsbad was a consistent top performer in growth of key employment categories. Most Notably in Arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the Professional, scientific and technical services sector. The latter may be key for continued focus and growth as this category usually equates to higher wage jobs. 21604.00 Macro2: JobGr cities The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 30 of 142------------------------------------- ------------------------------- c:::::::::J c=i c:::::::::J c:=i c::::J c:=i c::::J c:=i c::::J C:::J □ □ □ □ ■ □ □ □ □ □ ■ □ EXHIBIT I-2C EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY COMPOSITION NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA2019 Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Aviara Carlsbad North County Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor% of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of Jobs Num.Share Carlsbad Num.Share Carlsbad Jobs to Labo Num.Share Carlsbad Num.Share Carlsbad Jobs to Labor Num.Share Carlsbad Num.Share Carl sbad Jobs to Labor Num.Share Carlsbad Num.Share Carl sbad Jobs to Labor Num.Share Carlsbad Num.Share Carl sbad Jobs to Labor Num.Share County Num.Share North County Jobs to Labor Num.Share Num.Share Jobs to Labor Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 0%0%23 1%6%0.0 0 0%0%34 1%19%0.0 0 0%0%17 1%10%0.0 76 0%43%11 1%6%6.9 34 1%0%20 1%0%1.7 176 0%2%381 1%5%0.5 8,752 2%7,337 1%1.2 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0%---0 0%0%---0 0%---1 0%---0.0 0 0%---0 0%------0 0%---0 0%------0 0%0%0 0%0%---0 0%0%10 0%6%0.0 53 0%168 0%0.3Utilities00%0%7 0%4%0.0 0 0%0%18 0%5%0.0 245 5%63%5 0%1%49.0 24 0%6%7 1%2%3.4 0 0%0%13 0%1%0.0 389 0%22%200 0%8%1.9 1,772 0%2,402 0%0.7Construction1473%5%114 6%5%1.3 285 6%10%214 5%7%1.3 289 6%10%69 4%2%4.2 349 1%12%52 5%2%6.7 200 8%1%105 4%0%1.9 2,857 4%9%2,169 5%7%1.3 32,906 7%31,338 6%1.1Manufacturing261%0%157 8%4%0.2 6 0%0%276 7%2%0.0 75 1%1%112 6%1%0.7 4,121 16%36%112 10%1%36.8 0 0%0%239 8%0%0.0 11,459 15%21%4,159 9%9%2.8 55,846 12%48,770 9%1.1 Wholesale Trade 36 1%1%83 4%3%0.4 23 0%0%207 5%4%0.1 316 6%6%102 6%2%3.1 3,180 12%57%46 4%1%69.1 32 1%0%188 6%1%0.2 5,589 7%29%2,459 5%11%2.3 19,250 4%22,147 4%0.9 Retail Trade 324 7%4%162 9%4%2.0 865 18%10%375 9%4%2.3 424 8%5%178 10%2%2.4 3,028 12%35%95 9%1%31.9 177 7%0%276 9%1%0.6 8,576 11%19%4,059 8%9%2.1 44,172 10%45,848 9%1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 52 1%6%44 2%4%1.2 0 0%0%92 2%10%0.0 125 2%13%50 3%5%2.5 328 1%35%20 2%2%16.4 1 0%0%58 2%1%0.0 929 1%14%1,009 2%9%0.9 6,439 1%11,070 2%0.6Information30%0%48 3%4%0.1 47 1%4%105 3%8%0.4 175 3%13%48 3%4%3.6 427 2%32%23 2%2%18.6 62 3%1%77 3%1%0.8 1,329 2%17%1,319 3%11%1.0 7,669 2%12,366 2%0.6Finance and Insurance 120 2%6%67 4%4%1.8 37 1%2%144 3%7%0.3 107 2%5%70 4%4%1.5 774 3%39%34 3%2%22.8 66 3%1%109 4%1%0.6 1,983 3%15%1,748 4%10%1.1 13,048 3%17,490 3%0.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 195 4%13%46 2%4%4.2 53 1%4%82 2%6%0.6 237 5%16%52 3%3%4.6 443 2%30%22 2%1%20.1 32 1%0%74 2%1%0.4 1,487 2%16%1,094 2%10%1.4 9,340 2%10,490 2%0.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 242 5%3%189 10%3%1.3 162 3%2%463 11%5%0.3 713 14%8%234 13%2%3.0 3,871 15%41%133 12%1%29.1 169 7%0%403 14%1%0.4 9,387 12%24%6,073 13%11%1.5 38,559 8%56,295 11%0.7 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 0%0%40 2%4%0.0 0 0%0%96 2%4%0.0 144 3%6%39 2%2%3.7 1,172 4%51%33 3%1%35.5 1 0%0%62 2%1%0.0 2,287 3%37%994 2%10%2.3 6,249 1%9,816 2%0.6 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 160 3%4%106 6%4%1.5 105 2%3%216 5%5%0.5 460 9%11%92 5%2%5.0 1,413 5%35%73 7%2%19.4 14 1%0%134 5%0%0.1 4,008 5%15%2,577 5%8%1.6 27,098 6%31,345 6%0.9Educational Services 201 4%5%175 9%4%1.1 678 14%18%486 12%13%1.4 205 4%5%161 9%4%1.3 465 2%12%103 9%3%4.5 173 7%0%286 10%1%0.6 3,827 5%9%4,914 10%10%0.8 42,375 9%49,948 10%0.8 Health Care and Social Assistance 928 19%16%210 11%4%4.4 223 5%4%472 11%8%0.5 380 7%6%215 12%4%1.8 1,096 4%19%119 11%2%9.2 200 8%0%345 12%1%0.6 5,880 8%11%5,635 12%9%1.0 54,076 12%64,969 13%0.8 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 130 3%3%57 3%4%2.3 48 1%1%123 3%3%0.4 51 1%1%47 3%1%1.1 3,536 14%76%41 4%1%86.2 40 2%0%99 3%1%0.4 4,671 6%35%1,427 3%11%3.3 13,406 3%12,696 2%1.1 Accommodation and Food Services 1,801 36%19%232 12%5%7.8 789 17%8%481 12%5%1.6 1,011 20%11%176 10%2%5.7 1,547 6%16%138 12%1%11.2 1,134 47%2%300 10%1%3.8 9,406 12%18%4,921 10%9%1.9 51,686 11%53,075 10%1.0 Other Services (excluding Public Administration)334 7%15%54 3%4%6.2 107 2%5%148 4%7%0.7 160 3%7%57 3%3%2.8 245 1%11%27 2%1%9.1 85 4%1%94 3%1%0.9 2,245 3%14%1,540 3%9%1.5 15,844 3%16,822 3%0.9Public Administration 258 5%16%63 3%4%4.1 1,281 27%78%149 4%9%8.6 0 0%0%34 2%2%0.0 0 0%0%27 2%2%0.0 0 0%0%89 3%1%0.0 1,650 2%25%1,439 3%11%1.1 6,661 1%13,015 3%0.5 Total 4,957 6%1,877 4%2.6 4,709 6%4,182 5%1.1 5,117 7%1,758 2%2.9 26,095 33%1,116 1%23.4 2,420 1%2,971 1%0.8 78,135 17%48,127 9%1.6 455,201 517,407 0.9 Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 557 11%4%342 18%3%1.6 252 5%2%785 19%5%0.3 1,201 23%8%395 22%3%3.0 6,260 24%41%222 20%1%28.2 268 11%0%648 22%1%0.4 15,144 19%23%9,909 21%11%1.5 67,196 15%94,091 18%0.7 Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 6.5% 0.1% 4.9% 18.7% 2.6% 18.4% 1.0% 3.4% 4.7% 1.0% 8.3% 3.4% 13.9% 7.4% 1.0% 11.6% 1.6% 14.8% 4.2% 13.6% 11.0% 1.7% 12.0% 7.5% 6.0% 9.7% 1.7% 8.5% 11.9% 2.9% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Jobs -Industry Share Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County 8.6% 2.6% 10.1% 11.2% 3.0% 9.0% 2.5% 11.1%11.3% 2.9% 10.1% 2.7% 13.3% 12.2% 2.7% 8.5% 2.1% 11.9% 10.7% 3.7% 8.4% 2.7% 12.6% 11.7% 3.0% 8.9% 2.4% 10.9% 12.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Labor -Industry Share Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County Thefour industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal. 21604.00 Macro2: JobI micromarket The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 31 of 142------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------- CJ CJ c:J c:J c:J c:J c:J □ □ □ □ ■ □ □□nn ■□ □□nn ■□ □ □ □ □ ■ □ EXHIBIT I-2C EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY COMPOSITIONNORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA2019 Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North CountyJobsLaborJobsLaborJobsLaborJobsLaborJobsLaborJobsLabor% of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of Jobs Num.Share North Count Num. Shar e North Count Jobs to Num. Shar e Nort h Num. Shar e Nort h Jobs to Num. Shar e Nort h Num. Shar e North Count Jobs to Num. Shar e Nort h Num.Share Nort h Jobs to Num. Shar e North Coun Num. Shar e North County Jobs to Num. Shar e Num. Shar e Jobs to Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 909 2%10%1,142 1%16%0.8 2,199 5%25%1,063 2%12%2.1 717 2%8%642 2%7%1.1 271 1%3%186 1%2%1.5 176 0%2%381 1%5%0.5 8,752 2%7,337 1%1.2 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0%0%25 0%15%0.0 9 0%17%18 0%34%0.5 0 0%0%8 0%15%0.0 1 0%2%6 0%11%0.2 0 0%0%10 0%6%0.0 53 0%168 0%0.3 Utilities 229 0%13%326 0%14%0.7 82 0%5%259 0%15%0.3 111 0%6%182 0%10%0.6 29 0%2%90 0%5%0.3 389 0%22%200 0%8%1.9 1,772 0%2,402 0%0.7Construction2,510 5%8%4,656 6%15%0.5 5,648 13%17%4,235 8%13%1.3 3,752 9%11%2,905 7%9%1.3 738 3%2%1,029 5%3%0.7 2,857 4%9%2,169 5%7%1.3 32,906 7%31,338 6%1.1Manufacturing4,780 10%9%7,298 9%15%0.7 8,197 19%15%5,933 11%11%1.4 4,224 10%8%4,692 11%8%0.9 326 1%1%1,769 8%3%0.2 11,459 15%21%4,159 9%9%2.8 55,846 12%48,770 9%1.1Wholesale Trade 1,659 4%9%3,599 5%16%0.5 3,586 8%19%2,650 5%14%1.4 1,781 4%9%1,966 5%10%0.9 666 3%3%1,100 5%6%0.6 5,589 7%29%2,459 5%11%2.3 19,250 4%22,147 4%0.9Retail Trade 5,365 11%12%7,901 10%17%0.7 4,201 10%10%5,350 10%12%0.8 3,432 8%8%3,923 9%9%0.9 3,022 13%7%2,041 9%5%1.5 8,576 11%19%4,059 8%9%2.1 44,172 10%45,848 9%1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 1,052 2%16%2,027 3%18%0.5 923 2%14%1,266 2%20%0.7 733 2%11%863 2%13%0.8 518 2%8%445 2%7%1.2 929 1%14%1,009 2%9%0.9 6,439 1%11,070 2%0.6Information3811%5%1,565 2%13%0.2 192 0%3%987 2%13%0.2 251 1%3%873 2%11%0.3 134 1%2%659 3%9%0.2 1,329 2%17%1,319 3%11%1.0 7,669 2%12,366 2%0.6Finance and Insurance 579 1%4%2,131 3%12%0.3 558 1%4%1,389 3%11%0.4 540 1%4%1,217 3%9%0.4 522 2%4%857 4%7%0.6 1,983 3%15%1,748 4%10%1.1 13,048 3%17,490 3%0.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 723 2%8%1,506 2%14%0.5 696 2%7%985 2%11%0.7 778 2%8%789 2%8%1.0 479 2%5%548 2%6%0.9 1,487 2%16%1,094 2%10%1.4 9,340 2%10,490 2%0.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,740 4%5%6,208 8%11%0.3 1,954 5%5%4,076 8%11%0.5 1,623 4%4%3,924 9%10%0.4 1,780 8%5%2,928 13%8%0.6 9,387 12%24%6,073 13%11%1.5 38,559 8%56,295 11%0.7 Management of Companies and Enterprises 593 1%9%1,361 2%14%0.4 219 1%4%818 2%13%0.3 202 0%3%726 2%12%0.3 118 1%2%426 2%7%0.3 2,287 3%37%994 2%10%2.3 6,249 1%9,816 2%0.6 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 3,171 7%12%5,147 7%16%0.6 2,031 5%7%3,576 7%13%0.6 3,292 8%12%2,773 7%10%1.2 809 4%3%1,234 5%5%0.7 4,008 5%15%2,577 5%8%1.6 27,098 6%31,345 6%0.9Educational Services 6,204 13%15%6,968 9%14%0.9 2,808 7%7%4,248 8%10%0.7 6,632 16%16%4,130 10%10%1.6 2,037 9%5%2,551 11%6%0.8 3,827 5%9%4,914 10%10%0.8 42,375 9%49,948 10%0.8 Health Care and Social Assistance 7,052 15%13%9,965 13%15%0.7 3,997 9%7%6,344 12%12%0.6 5,282 13%10%5,155 12%10%1.0 4,901 22%9%2,682 12%5%1.8 5,880 8%11%5,635 12%9%1.0 54,076 12%64,969 13%0.8 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,047 2%8%2,171 3%17%0.5 338 1%3%1,325 2%10%0.3 651 2%5%1,013 2%8%0.6 497 2%4%511 2%4%1.0 4,671 6%35%1,427 3%11%3.3 13,406 3%12,696 2%1.1 Accommodation and Food Services 6,213 13%12%9,375 12%18%0.7 3,041 7%6%5,662 11%11%0.5 4,745 12%9%4,380 10%8%1.1 3,658 16%7%2,214 10%4%1.7 9,406 12%18%4,921 10%9%1.9 51,686 11%53,075 10%1.0 Other Services (excluding Public Administration)1,847 4%12%2,783 4%17%0.7 1,143 3%7%1,715 3%11%0.7 1,478 4%9%1,391 3%9%1.1 1,571 7%10%810 4%5%1.9 2,245 3%14%1,540 3%9%1.5 15,844 3%16,822 3%0.9Public Administration 922 2%14%1,993 3%15%0.5 455 1%7%1,255 2%19%0.4 480 1%7%1,013 2%15%0.5 320 1%5%504 2%8%0.6 1,650 2%25%1,439 3%11%1.1 6,661 1%13,015 3%0.5Total46,976 10%78,147 15%0.6 42,277 9%53,154 12%0.8 40,704 9%42,565 9%1.0 22,397 5%22,590 5%1.0 78,135 17%48,127 9%1.6 455,201 517,407 0.9 Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 3,635 8%4%11,206 14%12%0.3 3,427 8%5%7,268 14%11%0.5 3,143 8%5%6,656 16%10%0.5 2,899 13%4%4,759 21%7%0.6 15,144 19%23%9,909 21%11%1.5 67,196 15%94,091 18%0.7 Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 11% 1% 4% 15% 2% 10% 0% 5% 9% 1% 8% 1% 4% 13% 2% 13% 1% 8% 22% 2% 11% 2% 12% 8% 6% 10% 2% 8% 12% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Jobs -Industry Share Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County 10% 2% 8% 13% 3% 10% 2% 8% 12% 2% 9% 2% 9% 12% 2% 9% 3% 13% 12% 2% 8% 3% 13% 12% 3% 9% 2% 11% 13% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Labor -Industry Share Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County Thefour industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal. 21604.00 Macro2: JobI cities The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 32 of 142--------------------------- c::::J D CJ CJ CJ CJ I ~ ,.-.-•□ DI I I II ■ I I ■ 11 ■ 11 ■ I EXHIBIT I-2CEMPLOYMENT - HISTORICAL INDUSTRY GROWTHCARLSBAD, CA2002 AND 2019Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.0010,000.0011,000.00Retail TradeInformationProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, and RecreationShift Share - 2002-201920022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201911.7%2.7%9.7%5.6%3.2%12.1%2.2%10.8%6.3%6.9%11.0%1.7%12.0%7.5%6.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%Retail TradeInformationProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, and RecreationAnnual Job Growth - 2002-201920022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920102010201020102010201420142014201420142019201920192019201921604.00 Macro2: JobGr Carlsbad AlltimeThe Concord Group27DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 33 of 142■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Ill ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT I-2CGROWTH CHARACTERISTICS - EMPLOYMENTSAN DIEGO MSA & SELECT US METROS2006 THROUGH 2026Peer MetrosCompetitive MetrosUnited States San DiegoNashville Charlotte San JoseAustinRaleighBoston Los Angeles New York San Francisco DallasMSA:Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Historical Employment (000s)2006136,4341,3147859899057364912,4315,7468,7532,0372,9172011131,9221,2507869768968125092,4485,3388,7191,9573,0032016144,3291,4229501,1471,0801,0016002,6995,9839,5572,3283,5042021143,4021,4111,0141,1841,0861,0986192,5775,7499,1122,2853,7545-Yr Annual Growth-185.4(0.1%)-2.3(0.2%)12.81.3%7.40.6%1.00.1%19.51.9%3.90.6%-24.5(0.9%)-46.9(0.8%)-88.9(0.9%)-8.5(0.4%)50.11.4%10-Yr Annual Growth1,148.10.8%16.11.2%22.82.6%20.82.0%19.01.9%28.63.1%11.02.0%12.90.5%41.00.7%39.30.4%32.81.6%75.12.3%Employment Forecast (000s)2021143,4020.0%1,4110.0%1,0140.0%1,1840.0%1,0860.0%1,0980.0%6190.0%2,5770.0%5,7490.0%9,1120.0%2,2850.0%3,7540.0%2026154,2871,5431,1101,3051,1871,2646902,7866,2409,8702,5084,2595-Yr Annual Growth2,176.91.5%26.51.8%19.21.8%24.22.0%20.21.8%33.12.8%14.22.2%42.01.6%98.31.7%151.51.6%44.61.9%101.02.6%Color = Growth Rank (red = 1-2, orange = 3-4, yellow = 5-6, green = 7-8, blue = 9-10, purple = 11)Source: Moody's (Updated 1.24.22)-0.2%1.2%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%United States San DiegoNashvilleCharlotteSan JoseAustinRaleighBostonLos AngelesNew York San FranciscoDallasHistorical Employment Growth5-Yr (2016-2021)10-Yr (2011-2021)US 5-YrUS 10-Yr17571.03 GrowthResil:MetroGr-EmpPage 1 of 1THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 34 of 142---________ n --------------------------------------------------------n ____ _ - EXHIBIT I-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 All Jobs -453k2009All Jobs -361k 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 35 of 1425 -G99 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ /OU -1, /81 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 2,782 -6,252 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 6,253 11,111 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 11,112 -17,359 Jobs/Sq.Mlle 1 -8 Jobs o 9 -119 Jobs o 120 601 Jobs e 602 -1,898 Jobs e 1,899 -4,634 Jobs o 0 o .. 0 : .. 0 0 0 • o •• e oeo:.,.Y ocJO • . ______ .., ___ _ 0 ~ 9, 0 t, • 0 0 0 0 0 EXHIBIT I-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 Health Care -53K (12%)2009 Health Care -36K (10%) 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 36 of 1420 5 -297 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 298 -1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 1,17~ 2,63'1 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 2,63~ -4,679 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 4,680 -/,309 Jobs/Sq.Mile 1 -~ Jobs o 6 -70 Jobs 71 -351 Jobs 0 Po1Vay 0 • 8 0 Camp Penclelon ~--th -1ol. • . ,.._ .,, .. • .1o..·· 0 §, 78 ~ 1i:: ,- '!'o 8"o_•o • _:o . o o l..J 5 -297 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 298 -1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 1,174. 2,634 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 2,635 . 4,679 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 4,680 . 7,309 Jobs/Sq.Mlle , 1 -~ ,lohis o 6 -70 Jobs O 71 -3~1 ,lohis e 352 -1,108 Jobs .1,109. },70~ ,lohis Po\Vay .... "00 oo" ~ (> ' EXHIBIT I-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 Manufacturing -55K (12.5%)2009 Manufacturing -43K (11.9%) 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 37 of 142Camp Pencleton Sooth 5 -388 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 389 -1,SdO Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 1,541 -3,458 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 3,459 -6,145 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 6,146 -9,599 Jobs/Sq.Mile 1 -5 Jobs u 6 -71 Jobs 11 -3~8 Jobs 359 -1,132 Jobs Poway s 0 0 5 -392 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 393 -1,553 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 1,55,1 3,-189 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 3,490 -6,199 Jobs/Sq.Mile Jobs/Sq.Mile 1 6 Jobs u 7 -82 Jobs o 83 -114 Jobs e 415. 1,307 Jobs e 1,308 -3,190 Jobs 0 0 0 Po\vay ·. EXHIBIT I-2D JOB CLUSTERS NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA 2009 vs. 2019 Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2009 Retail -38K (10.5%)2019 Retail -44K (9.7%) 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 38 of 1425 -167 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 1fill -6~ ,loM/Sq.MilP. ■ 655 -1,466 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 1,467 -2,602 Jobs/Sq.Mlle ■ 2,603 ~,()6,1 Jobs/Sq.Mile , 1 2 Jobs o 3 -27 Jobs o }R _ 134 ,Johis e 135 -424 Jobs e 425 -1,034 Jobs • 0 -0 --0 Vista·-? 0 0 o• 0 '\ •• MAL I 0 5 _ 193 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 194 -760 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 761 -1,704 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 1,70~ _ 3,077 ,JohAfSq.MilP. ■ 3,028 ~,727 Jobs/Sq.Mile , 1 -3 Jobs o 4 -34 Jobs o 35 -168 Jobs • 16!1 -~:l1 .lohis • 532 1,297 Jobs 0 Poway EXHIBIT I-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Geography:Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc. Living in Selected Geography Jobs/Labor Ratio Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201 Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/Labor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 Commute to Work (Living in Geography) Distance to Work Under 10-Miles 21,391 44%33,393 43%26,956 51%20,189 47%9,556 42%215,189 42% 10-24 Miles 11,882 25%16,071 21%9,550 18%10,137 24%7,229 32%151,099 29% 25-50 Miles 5,549 12%13,880 18%7,200 14%3,819 9%1,091 5%54,152 10% Over 50-Miles 9,305 19%14,803 19%9,448 18%8,420 20%4,714 21%96,967 19% Direction of Work Northerly 20,977 44%26,085 33%16,373 31%15,475 36%10,921 48%187,276 36% Southerly 21,534 45%43,538 56%30,262 57%17,456 41%9,722 43%260,597 50% Easterly 15,127 31%28,740 37%12,036 23%8,407 20%6,524 29%110,534 21% Westerly 16,111 33%24,223 31%21,590 41%21,209 50%6,688 30%230,425 45% Location of Work Surrounding Cities Carlsbad city, CA 11,416 14.6%2,672 5.7%2,049 4.8%1,769 4.3%2,522 11.3% Oceanside city, CA 11,370 14.6%13,708 29.2%5,724 13.5%3,401 8.4%2,158 9.6% San Diego city, CA 9,116 11.7%3,149 6.7%3,337 7.9%3,913 9.6%3,800 17.0% Vista city, CA 6,546 8.4%4,521 9.6%7,129 16.9%2,980 7.3%1,061 4.7% San Marcos city, CA 4,671 6.0%1,819 3.9%2,884 6.8%5,751 14.1%1,037 4.6% Escondido city, CA 3,780 4.8%2,057 4.4%3,110 7.4%4,784 11.8%1,040 4.6% Encinitas city, CA 2,996 3.8%840 1.8%747 1.8%812 2.0%3,551 15.9% Solana Beach city, CA 313 0.4%111 0.2%100 0.2%92 0.2%241 1.1% Lake San Marcos CDP, CA 268 0.3%66 0.1%124 0.3%232 0.6%70 0.3% Subtotal 50,476 64.6%28,943 61.6%25,204 59.6%23,734 58.3%15,480 69.1% North of Carlsbad Los Angeles city, CA 1,511 1.9%854 1.8%722 1.7%837 2.1%362 1.6% Long Beach city, CA 311 0.4%179 0.4%158 0.4%172 0.4%65 0.3% San Jose city, CA 267 0.3%43 0.1%49 0.1%293 0.7%21 0.1% San Francisco city, CA 169 0.2%30 0.1%39 0.1%32 0.1%27 0.1% Orange County 0.0% Anaheim city, CA 307 0.4%179 0.4%156 0.4%110 0.3%57 0.3% Santa Ana city, CA 285 0.4%187 0.4%166 0.4%126 0.3%50 0.2% Irvine city, CA 241 0.3%137 0.3%84 0.2%99 0.2%40 0.2% Mission Viejo city, CA 239 0.3%128 0.3%85 0.2%95 0.2%34 0.2% San Clemente city, CA 222 0.3%127 0.3%84 0.2%69 0.2%51 0.2% Laguna Niguel city, CA 207 0.3%122 0.3%72 0.2%52 0.1%40 0.2% Garden Grove city, CA 199 0.3%103 0.2%70 0.2%70 0.2%26 0.1% Huntington Beach city, CA 169 0.2%96 0.2%75 0.2%69 0.2%43 0.2% Newport Beach city, CA 168 0.2%61 0.1%48 0.1%37 0.1%25 0.1% Lake Forest city, CA 149 0.2%75 0.2%48 0.1%40 0.1%37 0.2% Tustin city, CA 149 0.2%55 0.1%47 0.1%44 0.1%27 0.1% Rancho Santa Margarita city, CA 149 0.2%75 0.2%48 0.1%46 0.1%18 0.1% Subtotal 4,742 6.1%2,451 5.2%1,951 4.6%2,191 5.4%923 4.1% South San Diego Chula Vista city, CA 938 1.2%554 1.2%541 1.3%523 1.3%374 1.7% El Cajon city, CA 342 0.4%283 0.6%210 0.5%253 0.6%175 0.8% National City city, CA 239 0.3%137 0.3%133 0.3%133 0.3%89 0.4% La Mesa city, CA 202 0.3%170 0.4%113 0.3%134 0.3%118 0.5% Subtotal 1,721 2.2%1,144 2.4%997 2.4%1,043 2.6%756 3.4% Inland East Counties Fallbrook CDP, CA 663 0.8%888 1.9%900 2.1%519 1.3%118 0.5% Temecula city, CA 583 0.7%561 1.2%462 1.1%483 1.2%133 0.6% Poway city, CA 581 0.7%162 0.3%263 0.6%440 1.1%241 1.1% Murrieta city, CA 560 0.7%489 1.0%440 1.0%435 1.1%116 0.5% Menifee city, CA 438 0.6%340 0.7%300 0.7%352 0.9%97 0.4% Riverside city, CA 320 0.4%241 0.5%230 0.5%289 0.7%79 0.4% Santee city, CA 237 0.3%155 0.3%111 0.3%115 0.3%94 0.4% Corona city, CA 224 0.3%122 0.3%103 0.2%118 0.3%35 0.2% Moreno Valley city, CA 209 0.3%221 0.5%185 0.4%177 0.4%52 0.2% Valley Center CDP, CA 186 0.2%103 0.2%175 0.4%244 0.6%46 0.2% Ramona CDP, CA 153 0.2%123 0.3%126 0.3%197 0.5%69 0.3% La Presa CDP, CA 143 0.2%91 0.2%84 0.2%101 0.2%46 0.2% San Bernardino city, CA 142 0.2%119 0.3%116 0.3%108 0.3%33 0.1% French Valley CDP, CA 138 0.2%109 0.2%113 0.3%106 0.3%30 0.1% Subtotal 4,577 5.9%3,724 7.9%3,608 8.5%3,684 9.1%1,189 5.3% Remaining Cities 16,619 21.3%10,714 22.8%10,517 24.9%10,052 24.7%4,049 18.1% Subtotal 78,135 100%46,976 100%42,277 100%40,704 100%22,397 100% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 21604.00 Macro2: JobC The Concord Group45 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 39 of 142 -"----------' -------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- EXHIBIT I-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Employed Labor Living in Oceanside - Location of Work Key Takeaways 1. The city of Carlsbad has a high concentration of individuals who are commuting from the greater San Diego area to jobs located within the city. 2. Outside of the major surrounding cities, a high portion of commuters are traveling from coastal northern cities and counties (Greater Los Angeles, Orange County) Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 65% 6% 2% 6% 21% Directional Breakdown of Where Workers Live Who are Employed Within the City of Carlsbad as a Percent of Total Jobs Surrounding Cities North of Carlsbad South San Diego Inland East Counties Remaining Cities 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Number of Employed IndividualsIndividuals Employed in the City of Carlsbad and Live in a Surrounding Major Metro Area San Diego city, CA Los Angeles city, CA San Francisco city, CA Irvine city, CA Riverside city, CA 15% 12% 8% 6% 5% Top Five Cities of Where Workers Live Who Are Employed in the City of Carlsbad as a Percent of Total Jobs Oceanside city, CA San Diego city, CA Vista city, CA San Marcos city, CA Escondido city, CA 21604.00 Macro2: JobC The Concord Group46 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 40 of 142 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 5 -45 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 46 -165 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 166 -365 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 366 -645 Jobs/Sq.Mile ■ 646 -1,006 Jobs/Sq.Mile • 1 -2Jobs o 3-11Jobs • • ■ Job Counts by Distance/Direction in 2019 All Workers N s Jobs by Distance -Work Census Block to Home Census Block Total Primary Jobs Less than 10 miles ~ ~ Greater than 50 miles • • ■ 2019 Count Share 72,219 100.0% 35,650 49.4% 12,968 18.0% 10,319 14.3% 13,282 18.4% EXHIBIT I-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS - INFLOW/ OUTFLOW NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Geography:Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc.Num.Perc. Jobs/Labor Ratio Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201 Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/Labor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 Net Job Inflow"+" / "-" Outflow 30,008 38%(1)-31,171 -66%(1)-10,877 -26%(1)-1,861 -5%(1)-193 -1%(1)-62,206 -14%(1) Living Outside Selection Area Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Employed Labor Living Outside Selection Area 36,821 77%(2)64,146 82%(2)44,737 84%(2)36,498 86%(2)19,506 86%(2)256,375 50%(2) Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 6,608 18%12,334 19%8,191 18%6,296 17%3,266 17%42,756 17% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 8,145 22%21,445 33%15,243 34%10,864 30%4,061 21%62,567 24% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 22,068 60%(3)30,367 47%21,303 48%19,338 53%12,179 62%151,052 59% Workers Aged 29 or younger 6,483 18%15,050 23%10,918 24%7,879 22%3,313 17%50,116 20% Workers Aged 30 to 54 20,491 56%33,943 53%23,603 53%20,359 56%10,991 56%143,781 56% Workers Aged 55 or older 9,847 27%15,153 24%10,216 23%8,260 23%5,202 27%62,478 24% Living in Selection Area Total Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201 Employed Labor Living in Selection Area 11,306 14%(2)14,001 30%(2)8,417 20%(2)6,067 15%(2)3,084 14%(2)259,531 57%(2) Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 2,337 21%3,562 25%1,687 20%1,524 25%903 29%51,587 20% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 2,641 23%5,298 38%3,768 45%2,192 36%921 30%84,280 32% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 6,328 56%(3)5,141 37%2,962 35%2,351 39%1,260 41%123,664 48% Workers Aged 29 or younger 2,221 20%3,279 23%1,956 23%1,451 24%654 21%56,686 22% Workers Aged 30 to 54 6,221 55%7,033 50%4,279 51%3,165 52%1,573 51%137,855 53% Workers Aged 55 or older 2,864 25%3,689 26%2,182 26%1,451 24%857 28%64,990 25% Internal Jobs Filled by Outside Workers Total Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201 Employed in Selection Area but living Outside 66,829 86%32,975 70%33,860 80%34,637 85%19,313 86%194,423 43% Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 12,395 19%7,101 22%5,167 15%6,901 20%4,552 24%34,110 18% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 20,530 31%12,371 38%12,589 37%12,703 37%6,512 34%61,396 32% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 33,904 51%13,503 41%16,104 48%15,033 43%8,249 43%98,917 51% Workers Aged 29 or younger 16,743 25%8,165 25%7,280 22%8,391 24%5,061 26%46,555 24% Workers Aged 30 to 54 35,998 54%17,452 53%18,494 55%18,422 53%10,072 52%107,062 55% Workers Aged 55 or older 14,088 21%7,358 22%8,086 24%7,824 23%4,180 22%40,806 21% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas % Inflow/ OutflowJobs/ Labor2019 City Jobs Inflow Outflow Jobs Employed Labor Net Job Inflow/Outflow 21%25%20%25%29%20% 23%38%45%36%30%32% 56%37%35%39%41%48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living in Selection Area Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area 21604.00 Macro2: InflowOutflow The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 41 of 142 -~------------------ - - - - - - - ■ ■ ■ - - ■ ■ • -- •• - - -- - EXHIBIT I-2E COMMUTE PATTERNS - INFLOW/ OUTFLOW NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA 2019 Carlsbad Encinitas Oceanside San Marcos Vista Key Takeaways: 1. The city of Carlsbad experiences the highest level of inflow among its four surrounding cities with a 30k influx of employed labor in 2019, accounting for 38% of all jobs within the city. The city with the next highest inflow/ outflow metric, Encinitas, has a slight negative outflow and has a considerably smaller jobs footprint of the five cities surveyed. 2. The city of Carlsbad has a higher concentration of individuals who earn $3,333 monthly over the rest of the five cities surveyed and for North County for both individuals living within Carlsbad and for those who travel to Carlsbad for work. 3. There is a higher influx of workers who reside within the city Oceanside, but travel to Carlsbad for work. Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 19%22%15%20%24%18% 31%38%37%37%34%32% 51%41%48%43%43%51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living Outside of the Selection Area Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area 21604.00 Macro2: InflowOutflow The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 42 of 142 -- - ■ ■ ■ Inflow/Outflow Job Counts in 2019 -66,829 -Employed in Selection Area. live outside 36,821 -Uve In Selection Area. Employed Outside -11,306 -Employed and live In Selection Area 1nflow1uutflow Job counts in LUl'J -34,637 -Employed in Selection Area. Live outside 30,496 -uve 1n se1ecuon Area. Empk)yed oucstde -6,067 • l!mpk.tyt:d -,mJ Uvt: lu St:h::1..Uut1 Au:o 111nuw/Outfluw Jul.J Cuunb i11 2019 -19.313 -Employed in Selection Area, live Outside 19.506 -Uve In Selec1ion Aree, Cmployed Out~lde -3,084 • Employed and live In Select1on Area lnHow/Outflow Job Counts in 2019 -33,860 • Err,i:,k,yo::,J i11 Sdo:<.Uoll Alt:o, liv,:: Oul',i,,lt: 44,737 -Uve In S1:1l1:KUun Arec1, ~mpluyed Ou~de -8,417 -Employe<:I and Uve In Selectlon Acea - - Inflow/Outflow Job Counts in 2019 -32,975 • Employed in Selection Area. Live Outside 64,146 -Uve In Selection Area. Employed Outside -1<1,001 -Employed and U,.,e in Selection Area - EXHIBIT I-2FMIGRATION PATTERNSSAN DIEGO COUNTY2015 TO 2019Total In-MigrationSourceNum.ShareTop 10 StatesCalifornia51,60139.6%Virginia5,9064.5%Texas5,6074.3%Arizona5,3934.1%Washington4,6443.6%Florida4,1673.2%Illinois3,8262.9%New York3,1892.4%Colorado3,0392.3%Hawaii2,6922.1%Rem. States40,35430.9%Total130,418Top 25 CountiesLos Angeles County, California10,2707.9%Riverside County, California8,0876.2%Orange County, California7,3285.6%San Bernardino County, California4,8233.7%Santa Clara County, California2,7822.1%Maricopa County, Arizona2,3311.8%Honolulu County, Hawaii2,0031.5%Alameda County, California1,8611.4%Beaufort County, South Carolina1,7691.4%Clark County, Nevada1,7571.3%Cook County, Illinois1,6571.3%King County, Washington1,6441.3%San Francisco County, California1,3291.0%Imperial County, California1,2040.9%Onslow County, North Carolina1,1920.9%Contra Costa County, California1,1740.9%Sacramento County, California1,1080.8%Ventura County, California1,1080.8%Virginia Beach city, Virginia1,0900.8%Pima County, Arizona1,0630.8%Kern County, California9490.7%El Paso County, Colorado9440.7%Stanislaus County, California8530.7%Tarrant County, Texas8480.7%Santa Barbara County, California8370.6%Rem. Counties70,40754.0%Total130,418Source: US Census, Census Flows Mapper (2015 to 2019)0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%Los Angeles County, CaliforniaRiverside County, CaliforniaOrange County, CaliforniaSan Bernardino County, CaliforniaSanta Clara County, CaliforniaMaricopa County, ArizonaHonolulu County, HawaiiAlameda County, CaliforniaBeaufort County, South CarolinaClark County, NevadaCook County, IllinoisKing County, WashingtonSan Francisco County, CaliforniaImperial County, CaliforniaOnslow County, North CarolinaContra Costa County, CaliforniaSacramento County, CaliforniaVentura County, CaliforniaVirginia Beach city, VirginiaPima County, ArizonaKern County, CaliforniaEl Paso County, ColoradoStanislaus County, CaliforniaTarrant County, TexasSanta Barbara County, CaliforniaTop 25 Counties - Share of In Migration17571.03 Migration: SummThe Concord Group49DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 43 of 142I --- EXHIBIT I-2FDEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATIONSAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK2021Source: RedfinKey Takeaways:San Diego Residents using Redfin to seek housing, have most frequently searched the most northernly proximate major metro Los Angeles. Likely Due to Los Angeles being one of southern California's most robust and diverse employment and cultural hubs. 21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: MigrationThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 44 of 142Percentage of San Diego, CA Redfi 1 users searching i Destination as% of Origin Leavers All Los A gel es, CA Bay Area I .: ~o Seattle, WA 13.3~ Phoenix, AZ 13.35' Dallas, TX 13 _,o Las Vegas, V 13.0:o Portia d, 0 I s~ Nas ville, T I -= Washi gto , DC I :. s·· Houston, TX 1--~ : 73. 0' 39.39' Source: Redfin user search data for Q4 2021 © 2022 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap EXHIBIT I-2FDEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATIONSAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK2021Source: Redfin21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: MigrationThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 45 of 142Qua rteriy Rank of Metro Destinations for San Diego,. CA As percent of origin looking from estinatio 0 0 Dest Display • usn:in, -X • Dallas, TX 1. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 • as'Vegas_. V 39.3% • s Argeles, CA .p oenix, AZ 2 2 • Portlard, OR . .:::. :.~c • Sa::ramento, C .Sa Jose,CA 3.~ • Seatte,WA 3 3 • \;Vas; ingnrnn, DC ~ 4 4 C, :,.. 3.~. "" C, _J C: ""' 3.-~C -,:: 5 -5 0 .._ 0 t; CL "' ..., 6 6 -to: 3 O'l'o a, Cl '6 = C: 7 7 "" c.: ~, .. __ :, .. t: 8 8 1 -,, --~ .. i: 9 9 :.tSc 10 J • • • • • • • • ~ 10 : 3", ll 1_ 201.7 Q3 2018Q3 2019 Q3 2-020Q3 2021. Q3 EXHIBIT I-2FDEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: USPS ADDRESS CHANGES (2019 VS 2020)SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK2021Source: CBRE (April 2021), USPS-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000Virginia Beach MSAHonolulu MSAChicago MSABoston MSADallas MSAWashington MSANew York MSAPortland MSADenver MSAPhoenix MSARiverside MSASeattle MSALas Vegas MSASacramento MSAOther MSASan Jose MSABremerton MSASan Francisco MSALos Angeles MSAIncrease in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020Change in Moves to San Diego MSA (USPS) -In Migration-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000Seattle MSASan Jose MSANew York MSASan Francisco MSAWashington MSAVirginia Beach MSAChicago MSAPortland MSALas Vegas MSAOther MSAHouston MSASacramento MSASan Antonio MSADenver MSAAustin MSADallas MSALos Angeles MSAPhoenix MSARiverside MSAIncrease in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020Change in Moves out of the San Diego MSA (USPS) -Out MigrationKey Takeaways: Outside of the Bremerton area, the top 4 cities that San Diego experienced the highest change in individuals wanting to relocate from are all Coastal California. Key Takeaways: TheRiverside area will pose a threat to growth of the North County region due to Riverside counties growing relocation appeal for its lower rents and the increasing normalization of work from home scenarios.21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: MigrationThe Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 46 of 142I I I I I I l I t=:::::I t=J I~ 1-=:J [] I I I EXHIBIT I-3DEMOGRAPHICS - SUMMARYPRIMARY MARKET AREA2021 THROUGH 2026Geography:VillageOlde Carlsbad South BeachIndustrial Core/Kelly RanchTamarack PointRobertson/Rancho CarlsbadRancho La Costa Poinsettia North Beach La Costa Ridge La Costa OaksLa Costa Greens/Bressi Ranch/Rancho CarrilloHedionda Point Calavera HillsBarrioAviaraCarlsbadScalePopulation ('21)3,9618,9384,3322,5887,1516,32617,72112,1353,7606,0458,46013,8934,8656,6783,2357,657112,930Households ('21)1,9253,5691,7791,0142,7642,3977,0354,7391,9652,4712,7904,6892,0102,3871,1703,11644,107% of Carlsbad4%8%4%2%6%5%16%11%4%6%6%11%5%5%3%7%100%Gr/Yr (#, '21-'26)28731194636667422(1)16(3)21216% of Carlsbad13%3%1%0%9%21%16%3%3%3%2%10%---7%---10%100%Over $100K HH Growth173624142769054343627902923850623Under $100K HH Growth11(30)(21)0(24)(30)(54)(48)(28)(29)(23)(67)(30)(8)(11)(29)(407)Gr/Yr (%, '21-'26)1.4%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.7%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.5%(0.0%)0.7%(0.2%)0.7%0.5%Employment ('21)5,0374,0945,34226,4151,69014,0866,08510,4525083911,5263,5287121,2606303,00480,858% of Carlsbad6%5%7%33%2%17%8%13%1%0%2%4%1%2%1%4%100%Household Size ('21)Average HH Size1.782.502.442.542.552.612.502.561.912.453.032.962.402.802.752.452.541-Person49%21%27%26%22%23%24%24%38%24%11%16%24%16%31%23%24%2-Person34%39%39%33%35%37%36%34%42%40%29%33%40%31%26%41%36%3+ Person17%40%34%41%43%40%40%42%20%36%60%51%36%53%43%37%41%Age Breakdown ('21)Median Age43.741.649.340.241.540.248.741.139.643.041.037.650.141.633.748.542.1Under 2018%19%23%23%21%27%22%27%13%24%30%29%16%26%26%20%24%20-245%6%4%8%6%4%4%4%5%6%6%3%4%5%8%6%5%25-3416%17%8%12%14%12%7%10%20%10%8%12%10%10%18%10%12%35-4412%12%9%12%13%13%12%13%23%13%11%18%14%15%18%10%13%45-5410%12%14%14%11%12%14%14%12%15%18%12%11%15%12%13%13%55-6410%15%15%16%14%12%15%14%12%14%17%12%17%15%9%17%14%65-749%11%14%9%12%10%13%9%9%11%7%9%16%9%5%14%11%75+20%8%13%6%8%10%13%7%6%7%3%4%12%5%4%10%8%Income Breakdown ('21)Median Income$78,661$99,106$117,248$120,548$107,708$115,867$141,373$118,990$102,354$126,804$167,801$151,403$114,453$126,302$56,488$153,616$120,203vs. Carlsbad(35%)(18%)(2%)0%(10%)(4%)18%(1%)(15%)5%40%26%(5%)5%(53%)28%--Average Income$102,757$128,410$152,958$187,720$137,854$130,852$179,119$152,497$135,803$159,886$210,469$178,826$150,664$150,226$70,929$204,081$157,775Under $50K32%16%23%14%21%29%15%17%22%16%10%12%17%8%42%11%18%$50-$75K10%6%9%5%7%6%7%5%7%6%3%5%7%2%16%4%6%$75-$100K16%16%9%16%11%6%9%10%10%7%6%9%11%13%23%9%11%$100-$150K11%18%9%14%13%5%9%11%16%12%8%12%12%11%12%6%11%$150-$200K24%18%21%12%23%23%19%23%22%25%17%16%26%28%19%22%21%Over $200K7%17%17%9%15%18%16%14%10%19%20%17%12%21%0%16%15%Net Worth Breakdown ('21)Median Net Worth$79,006$288,076$578,339$359,705$257,381$394,998$797,790$345,644$88,389$518,129$1,051,057$638,641$596,959$642,245$25,906$906,199$465,549vs. Carlsbad(83%)(38%)24%(23%)(45%)(15%)71%(26%)(81%)11%126%37%28%38%(94%)95%100%Average Net Worth$546,271$1,593,419$2,454,959$2,061,614$1,758,171$1,844,023$2,767,490$2,009,920$951,037$2,234,927$3,384,025$1,925,761$2,643,365$2,309,292$94,259$3,196,857$2,105,727Under $50K40%22%11%22%24%19%8%19%38%13%10%8%13%7%62%9%17%$50-$250K35%25%22%21%25%23%18%26%31%25%16%22%19%18%31%16%23%$250-$500K10%12%13%11%11%11%12%11%8%11%8%12%12%14%4%10%11%$500-$1M6%16%17%14%14%17%18%14%8%17%14%19%19%25%2%16%16%$1M-$1.5M3%7%11%8%7%9%12%8%4%8%12%11%10%10%0%12%9%$1.5M-$2M1%4%7%7%4%4%9%5%2%6%11%8%5%5%0%9%6%Over $2M5%14%19%17%15%17%24%18%9%20%29%20%22%20%0%26%19%Source: ESRI; US Census (American Factfinder)57%25%17%56%29%69%28%58%24%58%20%53%25%53%27%61%24%51%24%58%20%53%25%53%27%61%24%58%20%53%25%53%27%61%21690.00 DemoDemand: Demo (Sub)THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 47 of 142□{ □{ □{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ D{ EXHIBIT I-3DEMOGRAPHICS - SUMMARYPRIMARY MARKET AREA2021 THROUGH 2026Geography:CarlsbadVistaSolana Beach San MarcosPowayOceansideEscondidoEncinitasDel MarNorth CountySan Diego CountyScalePopulation ('21)112,930120,73112,637102,48448,140188,686180,99951,39612,7521,215,3523,287,244Households ('21)44,10737,9355,54934,04616,36865,98157,58720,6195,805419,1601,152,906% of North County11%9%1%8%4%16%14%5%1%100%---Gr/Yr (#, '21-'26)21626911310243392646972,4656,567% of North County9%11%0%13%1%14%11%3%0%100%266%Over $100K HH Growth623531615651611,015729270726,26216,204Under $100K HH Growth(407)(262)(50)(254)(137)(675)(465)(201)(65)(3,797)(9,638)Gr/Yr (%, '21-'26)0.5%0.7%0.2%0.9%0.1%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.6%0.6%Employment ('21)80,85846,0149,54335,59928,09147,93367,74827,1628,651475,0971,579,455% of North County17%10%2%7%6%10%14%6%2%100%---Household Size ('21)Average HH Size2.543.122.282.992.912.763.102.462.202.842.761-Person24%20%30%20%16%23%20%26%28%21%24%2-Person36%30%39%30%32%32%29%35%43%32%31%3+ Person41%50%31%50%53%45%50%38%28%47%45%Age Breakdown ('21)Median Age42.134.545.635.743.634.636.044.252.437.836.2Under 2024%27%19%28%23%25%27%21%16%26%24%20-245%7%5%6%5%9%6%5%3%7%8%25-3412%17%12%15%11%17%15%12%9%14%16%35-4413%13%13%14%12%13%13%13%13%13%13%45-5413%11%13%12%14%10%11%13%12%12%12%55-6414%11%15%10%16%11%12%15%17%13%12%65-7411%8%13%8%11%8%9%12%17%9%9%75+8%6%10%7%7%7%6%9%13%7%6%Income Breakdown ('21)Median Income$120,203$76,562$121,861$87,920$114,994$75,197$76,396$121,035$157,844$99,854$84,989vs. North County20%(23%)22%(12%)15%(25%)(23%)21%58%--(15%)Average Income$157,775$95,677$176,041$112,604$155,877$96,752$99,897$163,371$216,157$130,684$113,225Under $50K18%30%18%29%19%34%33%20%12%25%30%$50-$75K6%11%7%9%7%13%12%6%4%9%10%$75-$100K11%18%12%15%11%16%16%11%7%13%15%$100-$150K11%14%8%11%10%13%13%9%12%11%12%$150-$200K21%19%22%21%22%20%19%18%16%20%20%Over $200K15%10%10%11%15%9%10%14%12%12%11%Net Worth Breakdown ('21)Median Net Worth$465,549$123,490$459,153$196,223$518,129$128,037$145,627$404,510$857,446$252,331$144,778vs. North County84%(51%)82%(22%)105%(49%)(42%)60%240%100%57%Average Net Worth$2,105,727$750,165$2,433,509$1,085,494$2,361,902$863,784$1,090,838$2,165,727$3,371,672$1,547,775$1,109,413Under $50K17%34%18%28%16%35%34%20%13%25%33%$50-$250K23%29%23%26%21%27%26%22%16%25%27%$250-$500K11%13%10%13%12%13%12%10%9%12%11%$500-$1M16%11%12%14%17%11%12%14%15%14%11%$1M-$1.5M9%4%8%6%9%5%5%8%10%7%5%$1.5M-$2M6%2%7%3%6%2%3%6%8%4%3%Over $2M19%6%21%10%19%7%9%19%29%13%9%Source: ESRI; US Census (American Factfinder)57%27%25%52%31%62%25%57%25%53%28%58%30%58%23%59%29%58%25%53%57%27%21690.00 DemoDemand: Demo (City)THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 48 of 142□{ □{ □{ D{ □{ D { □{ □{ □{ □{ □{ EXHIBIT I-3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SUMMARY D CARLSBAD 2011 THROUGH 2026 Carlsbad 10 Year Carlsbad 5 Year Δ Summary Geography 2011 2021 Δ 2021 2026 Δ '11-'21 '11-'26 General Information Population 102,342 112,930 +10.3%112,930 115,970 +2.7%+10.3%+13.3% Net new population 10,588 --3,040 --10,588 13,628 Households 39,964 44,107 +10.4%44,107 45,188 +2.5%+10.4%+13.1% Net new households 4,143 --1,081 --4,143 5,224 Household Size 2.56 2.56 -0.0%2.56 2.57 +0.2%-0.0%+0.2% Age Breakdown - Population Median Age (Pop)40.0 42.1 +2.1 42.1 42.5 +0.4 +5.3%+6.3% Under 20 26%24%-1.8%24%23%-1.1%-6.9%-11.3% 20-24 5%5%-0.1%5%5%-0.4%-2.8%-10.9% 25-34 12%12%+0.0%12%13%+0.9%+0.2%+8.2% 35-44 16%13%-2.3%13%14%+0.1%-14.8%-14.1% 45-54 16%13%-3.0%13%13%-0.7%-18.4%-22.7% 55-64 12%14%+2.1%14%13%-1.1%+17.4%+8.3% 65-74 7%11%+3.9%11%11%+0.7%+59.1%+69.5% 75+7%8%+1.2%8%10%+1.6%+17.9%+41.2% Income/Wealth Breakdown - Households Median Income $85,743 $120,203 +40.2%$120,203 $133,079 +10.7%+40.2%+55.2% Average Income $107,212 $157,775 +47.2%$157,775 $176,507 +11.9%+47.2%+64.6% Under $50K 31%18%-13.1%18%14%-4.1%-42.6%-56.1% $50-$75K 14%11%-3.2%11%9%-1.1%-23.1%-31.3% $75-$100K 13%11%-2.0%11%11%-0.2%-14.8%-16.1% $100-$150K 19%21%+1.4%21%21%+0.6%+7.0%+10.4% Over $150K 23%40%+16.9%40%45%+4.8%+73.9%+94.9% Sources: ESRI, US Census 21690.00 DemoDemand: DemosChange THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 49 of 142 EXHIBIT I-3CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIPCARLSBAD2014 TO 2019CarlsbadA. Renter Incomes201420195 Year ChangeIncome TranchesRentersDistr.RentersDistr.Renters% ChangeLess than $50,0007,12245%4,63430%-2,488-35%$50,000 to $75,0002,59916%2,68617%873%$75,000 to $100,0002,02113%1,97013%-51-3%$100,000 to $150,0002,79218%3,02120%2298%$150,000+1,3659%3,07520%1,710125%Total Renters:15,899100%15,386100%-513-3%B. % of Income Spent on Rent$75,000+ Incomes201420195 Year ChangeRentersDistr.RentersDistr.Renters% ChangeLess than 20%2,22937%3,32442%1,09549%20% to 29%2,74946%3,50244%75327%30%+1,05718%1,10714%505%6,035100%7,933100%1,89831%Source: American Factfinder01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+Total Renters2014201921690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRentersTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 50 of 142D D EXHIBIT I-3CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIPOCEANSIDE2014 TO 2019OceansideA. Renter Incomes201420195 Year ChangeIncome TranchesRentersDistr.RentersDistr.Renters% ChangeLess than $50,00014,20955%11,75045%-2,459-17%$50,000 to $75,0005,61922%5,13020%-489-9%$75,000 to $100,0002,87911%3,84715%96834%$100,000 to $150,0002,3549%3,66214%1,30856%$150,000+7673%1,7167%949124%Total Renters:25,828100%26,105100%2771%B. % of Income Spent on Rent$75,000+ Incomes201420195 Year ChangeRentersDistr.RentersDistr.Renters% ChangeLess than 20%2,18237%3,23135%1,04948%20% to 29%2,73947%4,23646%1,49755%30%+96416%1,66318%69973%5,885100%9,130100%3,24555%Source: American Factfinder02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+Total Renters2014201921690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRenters OSTHE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 51 of 142-- -- -- ---- --- ---- ---.... D , __ -11n □ □ EXHIBIT I-4ACITY DEMO - TOURISMCARLSBAD2022AveragesHotel Statistics2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5 Yr 10 YrCarlsbadInventory (Rooms)39,057 39,646 44,975 45,954 45,927 45,856 44,933 48,290 49,042 52,122 53,074 53,083 56,003 57,471 58,709 60,708 57,195 53,344Occupancy68% 70% 65% 60% 62% 63% 65% 66% 71% 72% 73% 75% 74% 72% 47% 58% 65% 67%ADR$165 $177 $167 $147 $137 $139 $142 $152 $158 $164 $166 $172 $178 $179 $128$182 $168 $162San DiegoInventory (Rooms)405,374 407,861 420,377 437,988 442,660 441,360 440,127 441,340 442,429 443,575 453,298 460,407 462,488 469,070 470,386 469,653 466,401 455,277Occupancy75% 74% 72% 65% 69% 71% 74% 74% 77% 78% 79% 78% 80% 78% 45% 59% 68% 72%ADR$139 $146 $149 $131 $128 $132 $138 $140 $147 $157 $161 $166 $172 $172 $128 $162 $160 $154San Diego CountyInventory (Rooms)646,866 650,909 670,338 691,417 698,555 697,613 697,193 703,342 711,764 717,725 729,389 739,279 747,192 762,291 770,565 775,056 758,877 735,380Occupancy73% 73% 70% 63% 66% 69% 71% 72% 75% 76% 77% 77% 78% 77% 48% 61% 68% 71%ADR$131 $139 $142 $124 $121 $125 $130 $133 $139 $148 $152 $157 $163 $163 $121 $155 $152 $146Lodging Demographics (1)Leisure50-55%Commerical/Corporate 30-35%Group10-20%Visitor Demographics (1)Median Age 31 YearsMedian Income $80,200Groups with Children 53%Average Length of Stay 3.6 nightsAvg Exp per Person/Day$328Visitor Origin (1)Orange County12.7%Riverside-San Bernardino 10.0%SF-Oakland-San Jose8.7%Los Angeles-Long Beach8.5%Phoenix-Mesa6.7%Las Vegas3.0%Purpose of Trip (1)Pleasure/vacation60%Friends/Family35%Business3%Meetings2%(1) Carlsbad Tourism Report - 201860%35%3% 2%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2,000,0002,200,0002,400,0002,600,0002,800,0003,000,0003,200,0003,400,0003,600,0003,800,0004,000,0002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015Carlsbad and San Diego VisitionTotal Visitors to CarlsbadGrowth Visitors (Carlsbad)Growth Visitors (SD)-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$2002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021ADR and ADR ChangeCarlsbad ADRSan Diego ADRSan Diego County ADRCarlsbad ADR GrSD ADR GrSD County ADR GR21690.00 City Demo: TourismThe Concord Group57DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 52 of 142I -,_ -n--..1----,. l, ~ ... ~ -.~, ff :.--.. --- EXHIBIT I-4BCITY DEMO - INDUSTRY COMPOSITIONCARLSBAD2022I. GRP•The city of Carlsbad generates the bulk of its grossregional product (GRP) from Manufactoring•Professional, scientific and technical servicesrepresent a large portion of the city's GRP- These sectors include:a. Techb. Life Sciencesc. Other innovation industries- Anticipated growth within these sectors due togeneral resilience to recessions•Accommodation and Food services are a majorcomponent of the economy due to the largepresence of tourism and hospitality- Legoland creates a large influx of tourism andvisitorsII. Industry Share vs. US Share•Manufactoring is Carlsbad's largest industry- Producing over 14,000 jobs- The number of jobs significantly exceeds the national average•Professional, Scientific and Technical Services represents thesecond largest gap as compared to the national average- This sector is only the 2nd largest producer of jobs for theCarlsbad economy•Accomodation and Food services is the 3rd largest- Considering the presence of Legoland, data suggeststhere is a gap to be filled in this sector•Government employement represents the largest gapbetween Carlsbad's economy and the national average•Despite the tourism associated with Carlsbad, retail tradelags behind national averageSource: City of Carlsbad Economic Update21690.00 City Demo: IndustriesThe Concord Group58DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 53 of 142GRP by Industry • 2020 Gross Regional Product Manufdlcturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Finance .and Insurance Government Retail Trade lnform:ation Accommodation and f:"ood Services Health Care and Social Assistance Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Ser'Vlces Management of Companies .and E:nterprlses Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Ut1Ht1es Other Services (except Publlc Admlnlstr.s1on) Trcmsportation and Warehousing Arts, Entertainment. and Recreat1on Educ.atton.aJ Services Agriculture, Forestry. Fishing and Hunting soooa Industry size by employment • Industry Jobs Manufactunng Prolession.:;;I, Sdenr1fic. and Technlcal Se,vlces Accommod;1tion and Food Services Retail T,.ade Health Care and Social Assistance Government Other Services {excepl Public Admlntstrat1on) Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Wholesale Trade Construct1on Managemen1 of Companies and E:n1e1prlses Finance and Insurance Transportation and Warehousing Arts. Entertainment and Recreation Real E:state and Rental and Leasing Edu~tioncil Services lnformatton Utilities Agrlculrnre. Forestry. Fishing and Hunting -----------~-----·· 2,000 $2 OOOB • N.;;ationdll Average I 6,000 S:3000B $4000B EXHIBIT I-4C LARGEST EMPLOYERS CARLSBAD, CA JANUARY 2022 Jobs Rank Company Industry Number HQ 1 Park Hyatt Aviara Tourism 3,980 2 Viasat, Inc.Communications 2,563 HQ 3 Thermo Fisher Scientific Biotechnology 2,400 4 Gemological Institute of America 800 HQ 5 City of Carlsbad Government 680 HQ 6 GenMark Dx Biotechnology 662 7 Nordson Corporation Manufacturing 600 8 Callaway Golf Retail 590 9 Ionis Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology 586 10 LEGOLAND California Tourism 400 11 OptumRx Biotechnology 400 HQ 12 Genoptix Biotechnology 400 HQ 13 Omni La Costa Resort & Spa Tourism 365 HQ 14 Great Call/ Jitterbug Communications 200 15 Costco Retail 150 16 Continuing Life Communities Medical 100 17 Zimmer Dental Biotechnology 90 HQ 18 SGN Nutrition Retail 40 HQ 19 TaylorMade - Adidas Retail --- 20 Carlsbad Unified School District Government --- Total 15,006 Source: Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce , San Diego Business Journal, Union Tribune, various sites. 59 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 54 of 142 EXHIBIT I-4DDEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAPCARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIESAS OF FEBRUARY 2022Source: ESRI, CostarLEGENDColor = Year BuiltPurple= Pre-1970Blue= 1970 - 1980Green= 1980 - 1990Yellow = 1990 - 2000Orange= 2000 - 2010Red= After 2010Number of Units21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMapThe Concord Group60DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 55 of 142• Under20 • 21 -40 • 41 -80 • 81 -120 • 121 -170 -171-25-0 -251-39() 0 0 0 0 0 • ., " .. ,0 • • 0 0 0 c:.w 0 ' • EXHIBIT I-4DDEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - OFFICE DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAPCARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIESAS OF FEBRUARY 2022Source: ESRI, CostarRBALEGENDColor = Year BuiltPurple= Pre-1970Blue= 1970 - 1980Green= 1980 - 1990Yellow = 1990 - 2000Orange= 2000 - 201021690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMapThe Concord Group61DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 56 of 1420 • •• -~ Q 0 ~ ,_ •tt tP 0 • r. • 0 C ~t • Under 10,000 • 10,000 -22,000 • 22,000 -40,000 • 40,000 -70,000 • 70,000 -115,000 -115,000 -100,000 -100,000-450,000 • Over 450,000 0 1° .@.. 00 • 0 0 0 0 • rjJ .8 • 0 0 0 0 0 0 I o 0.5 l 2 Miles I I " I I I II I ,.-•ntwJW>CPN11 .. 1u ......... n1 ... t...1t .. H EXHIBIT I-4DDEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - RETAIL DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAPCARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIESAS OF FEBRUARY 2022Souce: ESRI, CostarLEGENDColor = Year BuiltPurple= Pre-1970Blue= 1970 - 1980Green= 1980 - 1990Yellow = 1990 - 2000Orange= 2000 - 2010RBA21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMapThe Concord Group62DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 57 of 142• Under 6,000 6,000 -15,000 15,000 -30,000 30,000 _ 50,000 • 50,000 -00,000 -OO,OOO -130,000 • 130,000 -240,000 • Over 240000 Ocean -L.J • 0 -0 ■ • • 0 • • Q e E9tl HERE, In. {c Stree1M.apCM Office Opportunity Analysis 63DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 58 of 142 EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - OVERALL SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000sT 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 386 386 391 391 391 404 404 404 404 404 404 396 395 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 0 5 0 0 13 0 ---0 0 0 4 1 Net Absorption T 6 -5 6 4 -2 -4 -9 -17 9 12 6 2 -9 15 ---3 3 3 5 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.8%5.1%3.6%2.7%3.1%4.0%6.2%7.5%5.1%3.3%1.8%1.4%6.9%3.1%4.5%3.8%3.1%2.4%3.3%4.2% Vacant SF 15 20 14 11 12 16 25 29 20 13 7 5 28 13 18 15 13 10 13 17 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.33 $20.67 $20.56 $20.68 $22.88 $21.72 $25.49 $26.93 $30.35 $31.66 $31.78 $31.63 $30.53 $32.45 $33.17 $33.94 $32.45 $33.69 $31.61 $28.54 % Change -8.7%-18.4%-0.5%0.6%10.6%-5.1%17.4%5.6%12.7%4.3%0.4%-0.5%-3.5%6.3%---2.3%-4.4%3.8%1.3%4.6% Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000sT 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -8 4 6 1 11 -5 2 11 1 -1 2 0 3 -10 ----6 0 4 -1 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.2%18.6%15.1%14.6%7.8%10.8%9.7%2.9%2.2%2.8%1.5%1.6%0.0%6.3%2.2%6.1%6.3%3.5%2.4%4.6% Vacant SF 34 30 24 23 12 17 16 5 4 4 2 3 0 10 4 10 10 6 4 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$35.43 $34.74 $34.05 $28.35 $18.49 $18.77 $25.67 $26.89 $26.10 $25.41 $35.33 $45.93 $34.58 $32.48 $41.81 $32.33 $32.48 $32.48 $34.75 $28.97 % Change 46.5%-1.9%-2.0%-16.7%-34.8%1.5%36.8%4.8%-2.9%-2.6%39.0%30.0%-24.7%-6.1%----22.7%0.5%0.0%4.5%1.4% South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000sT 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries R 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 ---0 -3 1 2 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0%17.3%17.1%15.1%12.5%11.1%8.1%7.9%11.3%12.2%11.5%9.8%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.8%2.6%1.8%9.9%10.1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 ---------------$41.93 $40.32 $41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0%0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-------------------3.8%---0.0%-2.2%-18.2%---4.5% Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000sT 3,347 3,347 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,466 3,446 Net Deliveries R 46 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 66 3 -99 154 34 127 45 -72 -58 -65 -49 87 129 -7 ----31 3 73 19 17 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.9%21.8%26.5%22.0%21.0%17.3%16.0%18.1%19.8%21.7%24.2%21.7%18.0%18.2%17.4%18.3%18.2%16.1%20.8%19.6% Vacant SF 733 730 908 754 720 593 548 620 679 744 841 754 626 633 605 636 633 560 719 676 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.84 $28.64 $25.54 $25.67 $25.53 $26.21 $27.39 $28.61 $29.68 $29.33 $30.08 $31.55 $31.91 $32.62 $32.20 $32.60 $32.62 $32.89 $31.10 $29.29 % Change -2.5%-4.0%-10.8%0.5%-0.5%2.7%4.5%4.5%3.7%-1.2%2.6%4.9%1.1%2.2%---1.2%0.1%0.8%1.9%2.4% Source: Costar *No office property in Aviara submarkets -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 59 of 142------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - OVERALL SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly AveragesMarket Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 30,312 31,265 31,516 31,654 31,710 31,904 31,949 32,307 32,590 32,685 32,980 33,315 33,891 33,929 33,884 33,944 33,929 33,929 33,360 32,726 Net Deliveries R 28,706 953 252 138 56 195 44 358 284 95 295 335 575 38 ---60 -15 0 268 227Net Absorption T 23,933 81 1,025 591 365 552 327 641 -38 -210 557 498 75 271 ---189 190 -102 238 304Total Vacancy Rate T 16.0%18.3%15.7%14.2%13.2%12.0%11.1%10.1%11.0%11.9%11.0%10.4%11.7%11.0%12.0%11.6%11.0%11.3%11.2%11.3% Vacant SF 4,850 5,721 4,948 4,495 4,186 3,829 3,546 3,263 3,585 3,890 3,628 3,465 3,965 3,732 4,066 3,938 3,732 3,834 3,736 3,709 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.47 $29.52 $28.14 $27.71 $27.71 $27.76 $28.91 $30.45 $33.10 $33.99 $34.97 $34.97 $35.58 $37.44 $36.55 $36.62 $37.44 $37.89 $35.39 $32.49 % Change -6.5%-11.8%-4.7%-1.5%0.0%0.2%4.1%5.3%8.7%2.7%2.9%0.0%1.7%5.2%---0.2%2.2%1.2%2.5%3.1% CarlsbadInventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 6,464 6,623 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,940 7,172 7,207 7,436 7,668 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,535 7,189 Net Deliveries R 119 159 80 0 0 0 0 237 232 36 228 232 13 0 ---0 0 0 102 98 Net Absorption T 28 96 7 235 127 181 147 79 -20 58 328 347 42 -23 ----15 15 77 150 127 Total Vacancy Rate T 23.1%23.5%24.3%20.8%18.9%16.2%14.0%15.8%18.8%18.4%16.5%14.5%14.1%14.4%14.4%14.6%14.4%13.4%15.6%16.2%Vacant SF 1,493 1,556 1,629 1,394 1,267 1,086 938 1,096 1,348 1,326 1,227 1,112 1,083 1,106 1,106 1,121 1,106 1,029 1,171 1,159Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.20 $27.78 $25.39 $25.28 $24.37 $25.13 $27.54 $28.52 $29.33 $29.50 $30.18 $31.17 $32.32 $32.65 $32.41 $32.62 $32.65 $32.69 $31.16 $29.07 % Change -2.8%-8.0%-8.6%-0.4%-3.6%3.1%9.6%3.6%2.8%0.6%2.3%3.3%3.7%1.0%---0.6%0.1%0.1%2.2%2.6% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,522 1,547 1,684 1,695 1,695 1,752 1,768 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,967 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,855 1,805Net Deliveries R 255 26 137 11 0 57 16 14 0 0 0 0 185 -6 ---0 0 0 36 27Net Absorption T 128 -24 162 21 47 62 -8 53 34 34 7 5 168 47 ---27 -6 -20 52 45 Total Vacancy Rate T 18.0%20.9%17.7%17.0%14.2%13.5%14.7%12.4%10.5%8.6%8.2%7.9%8.0%5.3%6.4%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.6%10.3% Vacant SF 274 323 298 288 241 237 260 221 187 153 146 141 157 104 125 98 104 124 140 185 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.43 $26.97 $26.33 $23.24 $24.42 $20.94 $21.60 $22.89 $23.45 $23.71 $24.42 $25.12 $26.02 $27.20 $27.09 $26.94 $27.20 $26.77 $25.29 $23.98% Change 0.7%-11.4%-2.4%-11.7%5.1%-14.3%3.2%6.0%2.4%1.1%3.0%2.9%3.6%4.5%----0.6%1.0%-1.6%3.0%1.6% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,487 1,545 1,552 1,551 1,621 1,621 1,621 1,651 1,651 1,711 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,723 1,678 Net Deliveries R 199 57 7 -1 70 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 15 18 Net Absorption T 48 -18 40 19 69 2 49 53 58 42 47 5 -45 -9 ---9 -16 14 8 27Total Vacancy Rate T 15.3%19.6%17.4%16.1%15.5%15.4%12.4%10.8%7.3%8.1%6.2%5.9%8.5%9.0%8.6%8.1%9.0%8.2%7.5%9.9%Vacant SF 228 303 270 250 251 250 201 178 121 139 107 102 147 155 148 140 155 142 130 165 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.24 $27.82 $28.38 $27.21 $26.04 $25.35 $26.16 $26.46 $27.81 $26.21 $27.41 $27.96 $28.81 $26.49 $29.78 $30.19 $26.49 $27.48 $27.38 $26.87 % Change 7.4%-8.0%2.0%-4.1%-4.3%-2.6%3.2%1.1%5.1%-5.8%4.6%2.0%3.0%-8.1%---1.4%-12.3%3.7%-1.0%-0.3% EncinitasInventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,633 1,633 1,636 1,636 1,643 1,643 1,677 1,677 1,680 1,684 1,684 1,708 1,708 1,768 1,708 1,768 1,768 1,768 1,711 1,687Net Deliveries R 27 0 3 0 7 0 34 0 4 4 0 24 -1 60 ---60 0 0 17 13 Net Absorption T -64 13 43 28 12 18 12 22 27 -31 10 33 -42 64 ---48 14 -5 7 12 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.3%9.5%7.0%5.3%5.0%3.9%5.1%3.8%2.4%4.5%3.9%3.3%5.7%5.3%5.6%6.1%5.3%5.6%4.5%4.3% Vacant SF 168 155 115 87 82 64 86 64 40 76 66 56 97 94 96 108 94 99 78 72Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.94 $29.81 $30.87 $31.70 $32.26 $32.45 $32.43 $35.53 $36.99 $38.68 $38.13 $40.45 $42.39 $42.63 $42.74 $41.92 $42.63 $42.29 $40.46 $37.19% Change -8.0%-9.5%3.6%2.7%1.8%0.6%-0.1%9.6%4.1%4.6%-1.4%6.1%4.8%0.6%----1.9%1.7%-0.8%2.9%3.0% Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,683 1,746 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,761 1,761 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,765 Net Deliveries R 61 63 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 2 2Net Absorption T -71 1 19 21 -14 -56 44 109 -23 1 51 -73 -41 0 ----12 -4 0 -12 0Total Vacancy Rate T 15.0%18.0%17.3%16.1%16.9%20.1%17.6%11.7%13.0%13.5%10.6%14.7%17.0%17.0%16.1%16.8%17.0%17.0%14.6%15.2% Vacant SF 252 314 304 282 297 353 309 206 229 239 188 261 301 301 285 298 301 301 258 268 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.68 $25.90 $25.56 $23.83 $23.51 $22.22 $21.56 $21.40 $21.72 $21.75 $20.32 $20.58 $26.26 $27.28 $26.97 $28.10 $27.28 $27.21 $23.24 $22.66 % Change 15.9%-6.4%-1.3%-6.8%-1.3%-5.5%-3.0%-0.7%1.5%0.1%-6.6%1.3%27.6%3.9%---4.2%-2.9%-0.3%4.7%1.4% Source: Costar *No office property in Aviara submarkets Source: CoStar -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Performance (City)Page 2 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 60 of 142 ~ ~ i I - EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q32021 Q42022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.5 $29.5 $28.1 $27.7 $27.7 $27.8 $28.9 $30.5 $33.1 $34.0 $35.0 $35.0 $35.6 $37.4 $36.6 $36.6 $37.4 $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 Y/Y % Change ----11.8%-4.7%-1.5%0.0%0.2%4.1%5.3%8.7%2.7%2.9%0.0%1.7%5.2%---0.2%2.2%1.2%2.5%6.2% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.2 $27.8 $25.4 $25.3 $24.4 $25.1 $27.5 $28.5 $29.3 $29.5 $30.2 $31.2 $32.3 $32.7 $32.4 $32.6 $32.7 $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 Y/Y % Change ----8.0%-8.6%-0.4%-3.6%3.1%9.6%3.6%2.8%0.6%2.3%3.3%3.7%1.0%---0.6%0.1%0.1%2.2%5.2% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.4 $27.0 $26.3 $23.2 $24.4 $20.9 $21.6 $22.9 $23.5 $23.7 $24.4 $25.1 $26.0 $27.2 $27.1 $26.9 $27.2 $26.8 $25.3 $24.0 Y/Y % Change ----11.4%-2.4%-11.7%5.1%-14.3%3.2%6.0%2.4%1.1%3.0%2.9%3.6%4.5%----0.6%1.0%-1.6%3.0%3.2% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.2 $27.8 $28.4 $27.2 $26.0 $25.4 $26.2 $26.5 $27.8 $26.2 $27.4 $28.0 $28.8 $26.5 $29.8 $30.2 $26.5 $27.5 $27.4 $26.9 Y/Y % Change ----8.0%2.0%-4.1%-4.3%-2.6%3.2%1.1%5.1%-5.8%4.6%2.0%3.0%-8.1%---1.4%-12.3%3.7%-1.0%-0.5% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.9 $29.8 $30.9 $31.7 $32.3 $32.5 $32.4 $35.5 $37.0 $38.7 $38.1 $40.5 $42.4 $42.6 $42.7 $41.9 $42.6 $42.3 $40.5 $37.2 Y/Y % Change ----9.5%3.6%2.7%1.8%0.6%-0.1%9.6%4.1%4.6%-1.4%6.1%4.8%0.6%----1.9%1.7%-0.8%2.9%6.1% Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.7 $25.9 $25.6 $23.8 $23.5 $22.2 $21.6 $21.4 $21.7 $21.8 $20.3 $20.6 $26.3 $27.3 $27.0 $28.1 $27.3 $27.2 $23.2 $22.7 Y/Y % Change ----6.4%-1.3%-6.8%-1.3%-5.5%-3.0%-0.7%1.5%0.1%-6.6%1.3%27.6%3.9%---4.2%-2.9%-0.3%4.7%2.7% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.3 $20.7 $20.6 $20.7 $22.9 $21.7 $25.5 $26.9 $30.4 $31.7 $31.8 $31.6 $30.5 $32.5 $33.2 $33.9 $32.5 $33.7 $31.6 $28.5 Y/Y % Change ----18.4%-0.5%0.6%10.6%-5.1%17.4%5.6%12.7%4.3%0.4%-0.5%-3.5%6.3%---2.3%-4.4%3.8%1.3%9.4% Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$35.4 $34.7 $34.1 $28.4 $18.5 $18.8 $25.7 $26.9 $26.1 $25.4 $35.3 $45.9 $34.6 $32.5 $41.8 $32.3 $32.5 $32.5 $34.7 $29.0 Y/Y % Change ----1.9%-2.0%-16.7%-34.8%1.5%36.8%4.8%-2.9%-2.6%39.0%30.0%-24.7%-6.1%----22.7%0.5%0.0%4.5%2.8% South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 ---------------$41.9 $40.3 $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 Y/Y % Change ---0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-------------------3.8%---0.0%-2.2%-18.2%---9.1% Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.8 $28.6 $25.5 $25.7 $25.5 $26.2 $27.4 $28.6 $29.7 $29.3 $30.1 $31.6 $31.9 $32.6 $32.2 $32.6 $32.6 $32.9 $31.1 $29.3 Y/Y % Change ----4.0%-10.8%0.5%-0.5%2.7%4.5%4.5%3.7%-1.2%2.6%4.9%1.1%2.2%---1.2%0.1%0.8%1.9%4.9% *No office property in Aviara submarkets Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista OVERALL $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Rents Page 3 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 61 of 142-==== ----------------------------------------- -----------------------..... -..... -,, _____ __ ----.::-___ -----.,,,,. EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 16.0%18.3%15.7%14.2%13.2%12.0%11.1%10.1%11.0%11.9%11.0%10.4%11.7%11.0%12.0%11.6%11.0%11.3%11.2%11.3% Y/Y % Change ---14.4%-14.2%-9.6%-7.0%-9.1%-7.5%-9.0%8.9%8.2%-7.6%-5.5%12.5%-6.0%----3.3%-5.2%2.7%0.0%-5.0% Carlsbad Vacancy 23.1%23.5%24.3%20.8%18.9%16.2%14.0%15.8%18.8%18.4%16.5%14.5%14.1%14.4%14.4%14.6%14.4%13.4%15.6%16.2% Y/Y % Change ---1.7%3.4%-14.4%-9.1%-14.3%-13.6%12.9%19.0%-2.1%-10.3%-12.1%-2.8%2.1%---1.4%-1.4%-6.9%-5.2%-7.1% Oceanside Vacancy 18.0%20.9%17.7%17.0%14.2%13.5%14.7%12.4%10.5%8.6%8.2%7.9%8.0%5.3%6.4%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.6%10.3% Y/Y % Change ---16.1%-15.3%-4.0%-16.5%-4.9%8.9%-15.6%-15.3%-18.1%-4.7%-3.7%1.3%-33.8%----21.9%6.0%18.9%-12.8%-20.8% San Marcos Vacancy 15.3%19.6%17.4%16.1%15.5%15.4%12.4%10.8%7.3%8.1%6.2%5.9%8.5%9.0%8.6%8.1%9.0%8.2%7.5%9.9% Y/Y % Change ---28.1%-11.2%-7.5%-3.7%-0.6%-19.5%-12.9%-32.4%11.0%-23.5%-4.8%44.1%5.9%----5.8%11.1%-8.9%4.3%-11.0% Encinitas Vacancy 10.3%9.5%7.0%5.3%5.0%3.9%5.1%3.8%2.4%4.5%3.9%3.3%5.7%5.3%5.6%6.1%5.3%5.6%4.5%4.3% Y/Y % Change ----7.8%-26.3%-24.3%-5.7%-22.0%30.8%-25.5%-36.8%87.5%-13.3%-15.4%72.7%-7.0%---8.9%-13.1%5.7%17.2%0.0% Vista Vacancy 15.0%18.0%17.3%16.1%16.9%20.1%17.6%11.7%13.0%13.5%10.6%14.7%17.0%17.0%16.1%16.8%17.0%17.0%14.6%15.2% Y/Y % Change ---20.0%-3.9%-6.9%5.0%18.9%-12.4%-33.5%11.1%3.8%-21.5%38.7%15.6%0.0%---4.3%1.2%0.0%5.5%1.1% Village Vacancy 3.8%5.1%3.6%2.7%3.1%4.0%6.2%7.5%5.1%3.3%1.8%1.4%6.9%3.1%4.5%3.8%3.1%2.4%3.3%4.2% Y/Y % Change ---34.2%-29.4%-25.0%14.8%29.0%55.0%21.0%-32.0%-35.3%-45.5%-22.2%392.9%-55.1%----15.6%-18.4%-22.6%-9.5%2.8% Olde Carlsbad Vacancy 21.2%18.6%15.1%14.6%7.8%10.8%9.7%2.9%2.2%2.8%1.5%1.6%0.0%6.3%2.2%6.1%6.3%3.5%2.4%4.6% Y/Y % Change ----12.3%-18.8%-3.3%-46.6%38.5%-10.2%-70.1%-24.1%27.3%-46.4%6.7%-100.0%------177.3%3.3%-44.4%23.4%-15.5% South Beach Vacancy 17.0%17.3%17.1%15.1%12.5%11.1%8.1%7.9%11.3%12.2%11.5%9.8%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.8%2.6%1.8%9.9%10.1% Y/Y % Change ---1.8%-1.2%-11.7%-17.2%-11.2%-27.0%-2.5%43.0%8.0%-5.7%-14.8%37.8%-80.7%---0.0%225.0%-30.8%-25.5%-29.7% Industrial Corridor Vacancy 21.9%21.8%26.5%22.0%21.0%17.3%16.0%18.1%19.8%21.7%24.2%21.7%18.0%18.2%17.4%18.3%18.2%16.1%20.8%19.6% Y/Y % Change ----0.5%21.6%-17.0%-4.5%-17.6%-7.5%13.1%9.4%9.6%11.5%-10.3%-17.1%1.1%---5.2%-0.5%-11.5%-1.7%-3.7% *No office property in Aviara submarkets Source: Costar 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista OVERALL 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Vacancy Page 4 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 62 of 142-- ------- ------------- ---- --...... -----... -- ----------- --.... ___ _ ----------------- --------... --:;;::::::::;::..._ __ --"7" __ - - - ---_-_..,__, --... ... - EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q22021 Q32021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Carlsbad - Class A Inventory (RBA, 000's)1,583 1,583 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839 1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,127 1,930 Net Absorption ---3 34 105 90 5 8 35 40 66 289 168 -56 18 ----29 -4 -4 97 66 Vacancy 32.1%31.9%33.1%26.8%21.4%21.1%20.6%26.3%24.1%20.5%15.3%14.5%17.0%16.2%14.7%16.0%16.2%16.4%16.7%19.7% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33.4 $34.2 $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 Y/Y % Change ----2.8%-6.4%-2.4%-3.0%5.4%3.7%4.0%-0.5%0.3%0.5%2.9%2.1%2.3%---1.1%0.4%-0.4%1.6%3.5% Carlsbad - Class B Inventory (RBA, 000's)4,507 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,743 4,975 5,011 5,011 5,066 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,049 4,896 Net Absorption ---107 -19 131 19 177 140 58 -66 -1 30 177 113 -25 ---20 15 66 59 62 Vacancy 21.4%21.8%22.2%19.4%19.0%15.2%12.2%12.4%17.8%18.4%17.8%15.2%13.2%13.7%14.4%14.0%13.7%12.4%15.7%15.5% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.3 $26.0 $23.8 $23.9 $22.9 $23.4 $26.2 $27.0 $28.5 $28.7 $29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0 $31.9 $32.1 $32.0 $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 Y/Y % Change ----11.2%-8.5%0.3%-4.1%2.0%12.3%3.1%5.4%0.8%2.7%2.6%4.8%1.0%---0.6%-0.1%0.5%2.4%6.0% Carlsbad - Class C Inventory (RBA, 000's)374 374 374 374 374 374 374 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 363 Net Absorption ----16 -10 -2 18 4 -4 -10 0 -4 8 -3 -15 -5 ----5 8 8 -4 -1 Vacancy 4.9%9.2%11.8%12.3%7.5%6.5%7.5%6.1%6.2%7.2%5.1%5.9%10.1%11.5%12.2%13.7%11.5%9.2%8.0%7.4% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$26.1 $22.5 $23.3 $22.2 $19.1 $20.1 $22.7 $24.4 $26.9 $26.2 $27.7 $31.2 $33.3 $29.7 $29.6 $28.2 $29.7 $30.0 $29.6 $26.1 Y/Y % Change ----13.8%3.3%-4.6%-14.2%5.2%13.2%7.4%10.5%-2.7%6.0%12.6%6.5%-10.7%----4.8%5.3%0.9%2.0%6.0% Rent Gap A vs B 10.7%21%24%20%22%26%16%17%11%10%8%8%5%7%6%6%7%6%7.7%13.1% B vs C 12.1%15%2%8%20%16%16%11%6%10%6%-3%-5%8%8%14%8%7%3.2%8.5% A vs C 24.1%40%27%30%47%47%35%30%17%21%15%5%1%15%14%21%15%14%11.2%23.2% $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 2008 2012 2016 2020Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Carlsbad -Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Class A Class B Class C 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vacancy RateNet AbsorptionCarlsbad -Net Absorption(SF, 000's) & Vacancy Rate Class A Class B Class C Class A Vacancy Class B Vacancy Class C Vacancy 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Gap Page 5 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 63 of 142--------------------------------------------------------- --- EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 ----21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.8%27.2%30.2%24.7%21.0%22.0%22.5%24.1%25.0%23.9%21.0%19.2%22.5%19.7%18.5%20.1%19.7%20.0%21.3%22.1% Vacant SF 316 320 380 311 264 277 283 303 314 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.78 $32.60 $30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 $31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 % Change -4.7%-0.5%-7.1%-2.4%-0.5%3.2%3.4%1.6%-1.1%0.5%0.3%4.0%1.9%2.1%---1.4%-0.1%-0.1%1.7%1.5% Source: Costar 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Class A 21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group69 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 64 of 142I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ■ ■ ■ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I --~ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 8,726 9,373 9,509 9,594 9,705 9,785 9,785 9,961 10,034 10,134 10,437 10,614 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 10,664 10,259 Net Deliveries R ---647 136 84 112 80 0 176 73 100 303 177 454 0 ---0 0 0 207 147 Net Absorption T ---482 518 282 339 129 -39 107 35 -114 283 302 233 232 ---221 11 -144 187 151 Total Vacancy Rate T 19.7%20.1%15.8%13.6%11.1%10.5%10.9%11.4%11.7%13.7%13.5%12.1%13.6%11.5%13.6%11.6%11.5%12.8%12.9%12.0% Vacant SF 1,719 1,884 1,502 1,305 1,077 1,027 1,067 1,136 1,174 1,388 1,409 1,284 1,505 1,273 1,505 1,284 1,273 1,417 1,372 1,234 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$38.82 $35.15 $34.33 $33.61 $33.97 $35.38 $36.13 $37.70 $41.19 $41.65 $42.22 $41.83 $41.12 $44.11 $42.43 $42.35 $44.11 $44.27 $42.19 $39.53 % Change ----9.5%-2.3%-2.1%1.1%4.2%2.1%4.3%9.3%1.1%1.4%-0.9%-1.7%7.3%----0.2%4.2%0.4%1.4%2.8% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,583 1,583 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839 1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,127 1,930 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 176 0 0 228 177 0 0 ---0 0 0 81 58 Net Absorption T 85 3 34 105 90 5 8 35 40 66 289 168 -56 18 ----29 -4 -4 97 66 Total Vacancy Rate T 32.1%31.9%33.1%26.8%21.4%21.1%20.6%26.3%24.1%20.5%15.3%14.5%17.0%16.2%14.7%16.0%16.2%16.4%16.7%19.7% Vacant SF 508 505 550 446 356 351 342 484 443 377 316 325 381 363 330 359 363 368 353 374 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.43 $31.52 $29.49 $28.77 $27.91 $29.42 $30.52 $31.74 $31.57 $31.66 $31.82 $32.73 $33.43 $34.20 $33.67 $34.05 $34.20 $34.05 $32.77 $31.50 % Change -4.9%-2.8%-6.4%-2.4%-3.0%5.4%3.7%4.0%-0.5%0.3%0.5%2.9%2.1%2.3%---1.1%0.4%-0.4%1.6%1.7% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 114 114 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 256 256 256 256 256 256 205 188 Net Deliveries R 114 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 0 ---0 0 0 17 9 Net Absorption T ---7 57 4 41 6 -21 0 -8 29 -11 3 92 9 ---12 0 0 25 14 Total Vacancy Rate T 64.3%58.6%39.3%37.1%13.0%9.4%21.5%21.5%26.2%9.0%15.3%13.8%6.5%2.8%7.3%2.8%2.8%2.8%9.5%13.9% Vacant SF 74 67 67 63 22 16 37 37 45 15 26 24 17 7 19 7 7 7 18 25 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.78 $32.10 $32.13 $29.00 $28.91 $28.37 $26.85 $27.49 $27.93 $27.79 $28.30 $29.08 $31.77 $32.23 $32.69 $32.05 $32.23 $32.23 $29.83 $28.87 % Change 3.6%-7.7%0.1%-9.7%-0.3%-1.9%-5.4%2.4%1.6%-0.5%1.8%2.8%9.3%1.4%----2.0%0.6%0.0%2.9%1.1% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 361 361 361 361 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 Net Deliveries R 96 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 7 Net Absorption T 10 -3 -9 16 98 13 -5 18 13 0 3 -7 -23 16 ---20 3 0 -2 13 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.0%26.7%29.1%24.6%14.3%11.4%12.6%8.4%5.5%5.5%4.7%6.3%11.6%7.9%13.3%8.6%7.9%7.9%7.2%8.8% Vacant SF 94 96 105 89 62 49 54 36 24 24 20 27 50 34 57 37 34 34 31 38 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.04 $31.57 $31.69 $31.88 $30.81 $31.24 $31.14 $31.27 $31.47 $31.63 $31.87 $33.99 $34.39 $34.54 $34.01 $34.02 $34.54 $33.51 $33.28 $32.24 % Change -2.0%-7.3%0.4%0.6%-3.4%1.4%-0.3%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.8%6.7%1.2%0.4%---0.0%1.5%-3.0%1.9%0.8% Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -6 -7 7 0 -8 5 -1 9 -6 -4 1 2 -2 3 ---3 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.8%23.0%11.1%10.5%25.8%17.0%18.8%2.3%12.7%20.9%18.6%15.2%18.6%12.4%18.6%12.4%12.4%12.4%17.1%16.2% Vacant SF 6 13 6 6 14 9 10 1 7 11 10 8 10 7 10 7 7 7 9 9 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.17 $34.17 $34.17 $34.17 $28.71 $32.92 $32.92 $34.12 $34.12 $35.32 $35.32 $35.32 $37.72 $38.13 $37.72 $38.13 $38.13 $38.13 $36.36 $34.46 % Change ---0.0%0.0%0.0%-16.0%14.7%0.0%3.6%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.0%6.8%1.1%---1.1%0.0%0.0%2.2%1.1% Source: Costar Source: CoStar -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Class A 21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 70 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 65 of 142 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$38.8 $35.2 $34.3 $33.6 $34.0 $35.4 $36.1 $37.7 $41.2 $41.7 $42.2 $41.8 $41.1 $44.1 $42.4 $42.4 $44.1 $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 Y/Y % Change ----9.5%-2.3%-2.1%1.1%4.2%2.1%4.3%9.3%1.1%1.4%-0.9%-1.7%7.3%----0.2%4.2%0.4%1.4%5.6% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33.4 $34.2 $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 Y/Y % Change ----2.8%-6.4%-2.4%-3.0%5.4%3.7%4.0%-0.5%0.3%0.5%2.9%2.1%2.3%---1.1%0.4%-0.4%1.6%3.5% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.8 $32.1 $32.1 $29.0 $28.9 $28.4 $26.9 $27.5 $27.9 $27.8 $28.3 $29.1 $31.8 $32.2 $32.7 $32.1 $32.2 $32.2 $29.8 $28.9 Y/Y % Change ----7.7%0.1%-9.7%-0.3%-1.9%-5.4%2.4%1.6%-0.5%1.8%2.8%9.3%1.4%----2.0%0.6%0.0%2.9%2.1% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.0 $31.6 $31.7 $31.9 $30.8 $31.2 $31.1 $31.3 $31.5 $31.6 $31.9 $34.0 $34.4 $34.5 $34.0 $34.0 $34.5 $33.5 $33.3 $32.2 Y/Y % Change ----7.3%0.4%0.6%-3.4%1.4%-0.3%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.8%6.7%1.2%0.4%---0.0%1.5%-3.0%1.9%1.6% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $28.7 $32.9 $32.9 $34.1 $34.1 $35.3 $35.3 $35.3 $37.7 $38.1 $37.7 $38.1 $38.1 $38.1 $36.4 $34.5 Y/Y % Change ---0.0%0.0%0.0%-16.0%14.7%0.0%3.6%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.0%6.8%1.1%---1.1%0.0%0.0%2.2%2.2% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.8 $32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29.4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $33.1 $33.7 $34.4 $34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 Y/Y % Change ----0.5%-7.1%-2.4%-0.5%3.2%3.4%1.6%-1.1%0.5%0.3%4.0%1.9%2.1%---1.4%-0.1%-0.1%1.7%3.1% Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Industrial Corridor Class A 21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 71 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 66 of 142-- ~ I I I I I I I I I I I I ------. ----------------------------------------------------- I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 19.7%20.1%15.8%13.6%11.1%10.5%10.9%11.4%11.7%13.7%13.5%12.1%13.6%11.5%13.6%11.6%11.5%12.8%12.9%12.0% Y/Y % Change ---2.0%-21.4%-13.9%-18.4%-5.4%3.8%4.6%2.6%17.1%-1.5%-10.4%12.4%-15.4%----14.7%-0.9%11.3%-0.3%-3.3% Carlsbad Vacancy 32.1%31.9%33.1%26.8%21.4%21.1%20.6%26.3%24.1%20.5%15.3%14.5%17.0%16.2%14.7%16.0%16.2%16.4%16.7%19.7% Y/Y % Change ----0.6%3.8%-19.0%-20.1%-1.4%-2.4%27.7%-8.4%-14.9%-25.4%-5.2%17.2%-4.7%---8.8%1.3%1.2%-7.6%-9.6% Oceanside Vacancy 64.3%58.6%39.3%37.1%13.0%9.4%21.5%21.5%26.2%9.0%15.3%13.8%6.5%2.8%7.3%2.8%2.8%2.8%9.5%13.9% Y/Y % Change ----8.9%-32.9%-5.6%-65.0%-27.7%128.7%0.0%21.9%-65.6%70.0%-9.8%-52.9%-56.9%----61.6%0.0%0.0%-36.1%-40.4% San Marcos Vacancy 26.0%26.7%29.1%24.6%14.3%11.4%12.6%8.4%5.5%5.5%4.7%6.3%11.6%7.9%13.3%8.6%7.9%7.9%7.2%8.8% Y/Y % Change ---2.7%9.0%-15.5%-41.9%-20.3%10.5%-33.3%-34.5%0.0%-14.5%34.0%84.1%-31.9%----35.3%-8.1%0.0%7.5%-20.3% Encinitas Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Vacancy 10.8%23.0%11.1%10.5%25.8%17.0%18.8%2.3%12.7%20.9%18.6%15.2%18.6%12.4%18.6%12.4%12.4%12.4%17.1%16.2% Y/Y % Change ---113.0%-51.7%-5.4%145.7%-34.1%10.6%-87.8%452.2%64.6%-11.0%-18.3%22.4%-33.3%----33.3%0.0%0.0%-0.5%3.4% Village Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Vacancy 26.8%27.2%30.2%24.7%21.0%22.0%22.5%24.1%25.0%23.9%21.0%19.2%22.5%19.7%18.5%20.1%19.7%20.0%21.3%22.1% Y/Y % Change ---1.5%11.0%-18.2%-15.0%4.8%2.3%7.1%3.7%-4.4%-12.1%-8.6%17.2%-12.4%---8.6%-2.0%1.5%-4.7%-4.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class A 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 72 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 67 of 142----------~ =-----------.............. ~ - -----I I I I I I I I --------------------------------------------------------------- I I I I I I I I I I I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 224 224 229 229 229 243 243 243 243 243 243 235 229 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 13 0 ---0 0 0 4 2 Net Absorption T 1 0 5 -2 -5 3 -2 -3 6 10 3 -2 3 7 ---0 -3 2 4 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.9%4.0%1.8%2.7%5.0%3.8%4.8%7.5%4.7%2.5%1.1%2.0%6.1%3.2%2.3%2.1%3.2%2.5%3.0%4.1% Vacant SF 9 9 4 6 11 8 11 17 11 6 3 5 15 8 6 5 8 6 7 9 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$26.02 $21.54 $20.00 $23.55 $23.77 $21.60 $22.88 $27.87 $31.98 $35.39 $32.88 $32.19 $18.56 $34.94 $34.30 $35.51 $34.94 $35.90 $30.79 $28.21 % Change -12.0%-17.2%-7.1%17.8%0.9%-9.1%5.9%21.8%14.7%10.7%-7.1%-2.1%-42.3%88.3%---3.5%-1.6%2.7%1.8%4.0% Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -7 10 5 5 4 -4 0 10 -1 2 2 0 0 -8 ----4 0 4 -1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 40.3%27.7%21.8%15.8%11.4%16.4%16.5%3.6%4.3%2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.7%4.3%9.7%9.7%4.3%2.4%6.4% Vacant SF 33 22 18 13 9 13 13 3 3 2 0 0 0 8 3 8 8 3 2 5 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$36.38 $35.67 $34.46 $30.91 $18.84 $19.23 $27.65 $26.89 $24.89 $25.41 $35.52 ------$30.51 ---$30.51 $30.51 $30.51 $30.48 $26.12 % Change 50.5%-2.0%-3.4%-10.3%-39.0%2.1%43.8%-2.7%-7.4%2.1%39.8%---------------0.0%0.0%4.2%-0.1% South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries R 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 ---0 -3 1 2 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0%17.3%17.1%15.1%12.5%11.1%8.1%7.9%11.3%12.2%11.5%9.8%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.8%2.6%1.8%9.9%10.1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 ---------------$41.93 $40.32 $41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0%0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-------------------3.8%---0.0%-2.2%-18.2%---4.5% Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 ----21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.8%27.2%30.2%24.7%21.0%22.0%22.5%24.1%25.0%23.9%21.0%19.2%22.5%19.7%18.5%20.1%19.7%20.0%21.3%22.1% Vacant SF 316 320 380 311 264 277 283 303 314 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.78 $32.60 $30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 $31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 % Change -4.7%-0.5%-7.1%-2.4%-0.5%3.2%3.4%1.6%-1.1%0.5%0.3%4.0%1.9%2.1%---1.4%-0.1%-0.1%1.7%1.5% Source: Costar 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Class B 21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group73 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 68 of 142I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ■ ■ ■ t I ~ l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I L I I I I I I I J --~ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 16,878 17,183 17,294 17,349 17,291 17,407 17,462 17,664 17,874 17,886 17,910 18,070 18,210 18,248 18,203 18,263 18,248 18,248 18,065 17,802 Net Deliveries R 15,546 306 111 55 -57 115 55 202 211 11 25 160 140 38 ---60 -15 0 75 90 Net Absorption T 12,834 -295 504 340 -48 463 362 478 -132 -79 255 214 -167 70 ---16 169 18 59 142 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.5%19.7%17.3%15.6%15.6%13.5%11.7%10.0%11.8%12.3%11.0%10.6%12.2%12.0%12.8%13.0%12.0%11.9%11.6%12.1% Vacant SF 2,785 3,385 2,992 2,706 2,697 2,350 2,043 1,766 2,109 2,200 1,970 1,915 2,222 2,190 2,330 2,374 2,190 2,172 2,099 2,146 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$31.91 $27.50 $26.32 $26.62 $26.66 $26.67 $28.01 $29.00 $30.89 $30.46 $30.72 $31.21 $32.77 $34.19 $33.39 $33.83 $34.19 $34.64 $31.87 $30.06 % Change -10.8%-13.8%-4.3%1.1%0.2%0.0%5.0%3.5%6.5%-1.4%0.9%1.6%5.0%4.3%---1.3%1.1%1.3%2.1%2.5% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 4,507 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,743 4,975 5,011 5,011 5,066 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,049 4,896 Net Deliveries R 119 159 0 0 0 0 0 77 232 36 0 55 13 0 ---0 0 0 21 41 Net Absorption T -55 107 -19 131 19 177 140 58 -66 -1 30 177 113 -25 ---20 15 66 59 62 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.4%21.8%22.2%19.4%19.0%15.2%12.2%12.4%17.8%18.4%17.8%15.2%13.2%13.7%14.4%14.0%13.7%12.4%15.7%15.5% Vacant SF 964 1,017 1,036 905 887 709 569 588 886 922 892 770 671 696 731 711 696 630 790 759 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.30 $26.02 $23.82 $23.89 $22.90 $23.35 $26.22 $27.02 $28.49 $28.71 $29.48 $30.26 $31.70 $32.01 $31.85 $32.05 $32.01 $32.16 $30.43 $28.01 % Change 0.0%-11.2%-8.5%0.3%-4.1%2.0%12.3%3.1%5.4%0.8%2.7%2.6%4.8%1.0%---0.6%-0.1%0.5%2.4%3.0% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 989 1,015 1,095 1,106 1,106 1,163 1,185 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,239 1,205 Net Deliveries R 141 26 80 11 0 57 22 16 0 0 0 0 100 -6 ---0 0 0 19 19 Net Absorption T 96 -7 102 19 -3 64 23 46 24 0 23 2 68 40 ---25 0 -22 27 29 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0%19.8%16.4%15.5%15.8%14.5%14.1%11.4%9.4%9.4%7.5%7.3%9.2%5.7%7.6%5.7%5.7%7.4%7.8%10.4% Vacant SF 168 201 180 171 175 169 167 137 113 113 90 88 120 74 98 74 74 96 97 124 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.72 $26.59 $25.56 $22.71 $25.00 $20.28 $20.55 $22.11 $22.29 $24.00 $23.49 $22.79 $24.74 $25.56 $25.54 $25.44 $25.56 $25.34 $24.12 $23.08 % Change 4.4%-13.4%-3.9%-11.2%10.1%-18.9%1.3%7.6%0.8%7.7%-2.1%-3.0%8.6%3.3%----0.4%0.5%-0.9%2.8%1.2% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 694 751 759 759 757 757 757 787 787 847 863 863 863 863 863 863 863 863 860 815 Net Deliveries R 103 57 7 0 -1 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 15 10 Net Absorption T 47 -20 37 4 -28 -1 44 40 32 44 32 29 -12 -18 ----16 -6 8 15 16 Total Vacancy Rate T 13.6%22.9%18.8%18.3%21.9%22.0%16.2%14.3%10.2%11.4%9.3%5.9%7.3%9.4%6.9%8.7%9.4%8.5%8.7%12.8% Vacant SF 94 172 143 139 166 167 123 113 80 97 80 51 63 81 60 75 81 73 74 102 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$31.33 $28.46 $28.02 $27.19 $25.93 $25.40 $26.80 $27.53 $28.42 $26.13 $27.20 $28.08 $27.46 $24.80 $27.53 $28.41 $24.80 $26.34 $26.73 $26.78 % Change 28.7%-9.2%-1.5%-3.0%-4.6%-2.0%5.5%2.7%3.2%-8.1%4.1%3.2%-2.2%-9.7%---3.2%-12.7%6.2%-2.7%-0.9% Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,354 1,354 1,354 1,354 1,358 1,358 1,392 1,392 1,395 1,399 1,399 1,423 1,423 1,483 1,423 1,483 1,483 1,483 1,426 1,402 Net Deliveries R 22 0 0 0 4 0 34 0 4 4 0 24 0 60 ---60 0 0 18 13 Net Absorption T -55 14 37 30 1 18 16 15 24 -32 17 27 -37 65 ---49 15 0 8 11 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.1%10.1%7.4%5.2%5.4%4.1%5.3%4.2%2.7%5.3%4.1%3.8%6.4%5.8%6.3%6.8%5.8%5.8%5.1%4.7% Vacant SF 150 137 100 70 73 56 74 58 38 74 57 54 91 86 90 101 86 86 73 66 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.08 $30.05 $30.85 $31.41 $32.20 $32.46 $32.49 $35.99 $37.09 $38.98 $37.81 $40.34 $42.30 $42.60 $42.91 $42.05 $42.60 $42.46 $40.41 $37.23 % Change -7.5%-9.2%2.7%1.8%2.5%0.8%0.1%10.8%3.1%5.1%-3.0%6.7%4.9%0.7%----2.0%1.3%-0.3%2.8%3.1% Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 1,097 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,167 1,167 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,171 Net Deliveries R 62 63 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 2 2 Net Absorption T -43 7 22 31 -3 -52 39 96 -32 -6 44 -87 -34 4 ----8 2 -2 -16 -3 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.3%21.2%19.3%16.6%16.9%21.4%18.0%10.2%12.9%14.3%10.6%18.0%20.9%20.6%20.1%20.8%20.6%20.8%16.9%16.4% Vacant SF 190 246 224 193 196 248 209 119 151 169 125 212 246 243 237 245 243 245 199 192 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.99 $28.32 $28.62 $26.72 $25.52 $23.26 $22.26 $23.17 $22.93 $21.68 $21.09 $21.17 $25.68 $26.88 $26.51 $27.67 $26.88 $26.64 $23.30 $23.36 % Change 19.9%-5.6%1.1%-6.6%-4.5%-8.9%-4.3%4.1%-1.0%-5.5%-2.7%0.4%21.3%4.7%---4.4%-2.9%-0.9%3.2%0.1% Source: Costar Source: CoStar -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Class B 21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 74 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 69 of 142 - - ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$31.9 $27.5 $26.3 $26.6 $26.7 $26.7 $28.0 $29.0 $30.9 $30.5 $30.7 $31.2 $32.8 $34.2 $33.4 $33.8 $34.2 $34.6 $31.9 $30.1 Y/Y % Change ----13.8%-4.3%1.1%0.2%0.0%5.0%3.5%6.5%-1.4%0.9%1.6%5.0%4.3%---1.3%1.1%1.3%2.1%5.1% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$29.3 $26.0 $23.8 $23.9 $22.9 $23.4 $26.2 $27.0 $28.5 $28.7 $29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0 $31.9 $32.1 $32.0 $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 Y/Y % Change ----11.2%-8.5%0.3%-4.1%2.0%12.3%3.1%5.4%0.8%2.7%2.6%4.8%1.0%---0.6%-0.1%0.5%2.4%6.0% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.7 $26.6 $25.6 $22.7 $25.0 $20.3 $20.6 $22.1 $22.3 $24.0 $23.5 $22.8 $24.7 $25.6 $25.5 $25.4 $25.6 $25.3 $24.1 $23.1 Y/Y % Change ----13.4%-3.9%-11.2%10.1%-18.9%1.3%7.6%0.8%7.7%-2.1%-3.0%8.6%3.3%----0.4%0.5%-0.9%2.8%2.4% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$31.3 $28.5 $28.0 $27.2 $25.9 $25.4 $26.8 $27.5 $28.4 $26.1 $27.2 $28.1 $27.5 $24.8 $27.5 $28.4 $24.8 $26.3 $26.7 $26.8 Y/Y % Change ----9.2%-1.5%-3.0%-4.6%-2.0%5.5%2.7%3.2%-8.1%4.1%3.2%-2.2%-9.7%---3.2%-12.7%6.2%-2.7%-1.8% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.1 $30.1 $30.9 $31.4 $32.2 $32.5 $32.5 $36.0 $37.1 $39.0 $37.8 $40.3 $42.3 $42.6 $42.9 $42.1 $42.6 $42.5 $40.4 $37.2 Y/Y % Change ----9.2%2.7%1.8%2.5%0.8%0.1%10.8%3.1%5.1%-3.0%6.7%4.9%0.7%----2.0%1.3%-0.3%2.8%6.3% Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$30.0 $28.3 $28.6 $26.7 $25.5 $23.3 $22.3 $23.2 $22.9 $21.7 $21.1 $21.2 $25.7 $26.9 $26.5 $27.7 $26.9 $26.6 $23.3 $23.4 Y/Y % Change ----5.6%1.1%-6.6%-4.5%-8.9%-4.3%4.1%-1.0%-5.5%-2.7%0.4%21.3%4.7%---4.4%-2.9%-0.9%3.2%0.1% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$26.0 $21.5 $20.0 $23.6 $23.8 $21.6 $22.9 $27.9 $32.0 $35.4 $32.9 $32.2 $18.6 $34.9 $34.3 $35.5 $34.9 $35.9 $30.8 $28.2 Y/Y % Change ----17.2%-7.1%17.8%0.9%-9.1%5.9%21.8%14.7%10.7%-7.1%-2.1%-42.3%88.3%---3.5%-1.6%2.7%1.8%8.2% Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$36.4 $35.7 $34.5 $30.9 $18.8 $19.2 $27.7 $26.9 $24.9 $25.4 $35.5 ------$30.5 ---$30.5 $30.5 $30.5 $30.5 $26.1 Y/Y % Change ----2.0%-3.4%-10.3%-39.0%2.1%43.8%-2.7%-7.4%2.1%39.8%---------------0.0%0.0%4.2%-0.3% South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 ---------------$41.9 $40.3 $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 Y/Y % Change ---0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-------------------3.8%---0.0%-2.2%-18.2%---9.1% Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.8 $32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29.4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $33.1 $33.7 $34.4 $34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 Y/Y % Change ----0.5%-7.1%-2.4%-0.5%3.2%3.4%1.6%-1.1%0.5%0.3%4.0%1.9%2.1%---1.4%-0.1%-0.1%1.7%3.1% Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Class B 21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 75 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 70 of 142-----------------------.l ~ ----;a --------------------------------------...... --.. ' , -------------......---------...... .. ' , I -------------~ ... -_,----...... ' ' ---, .... -----------------------_, .... . ---...... -' r , -------,-----' ----, ----~ -= -I --' ' -----~ 'iii. ~ ~ -----' I ' A EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 16.5%19.7%17.3%15.6%15.6%13.5%11.7%10.0%11.8%12.3%11.0%10.6%12.2%12.0%12.8%13.0%12.0%11.9%11.6%12.1% Y/Y % Change ---19.4%-12.2%-9.8%0.0%-13.5%-13.3%-14.5%18.0%4.2%-10.6%-3.6%15.1%-1.6%---1.6%-7.7%-0.8%0.3%-5.1% Carlsbad Vacancy 21.4%21.8%22.2%19.4%19.0%15.2%12.2%12.4%17.8%18.4%17.8%15.2%13.2%13.7%14.4%14.0%13.7%12.4%15.7%15.5% Y/Y % Change ---1.9%1.8%-12.6%-2.1%-20.0%-19.7%1.6%43.5%3.4%-3.3%-14.6%-13.2%3.8%----2.8%-2.1%-9.5%-5.1%-6.7% Oceanside Vacancy 17.0%19.8%16.4%15.5%15.8%14.5%14.1%11.4%9.4%9.4%7.5%7.3%9.2%5.7%7.6%5.7%5.7%7.4%7.8%10.4% Y/Y % Change ---16.5%-17.2%-5.5%1.9%-8.2%-2.8%-19.1%-17.5%0.0%-20.2%-2.7%26.0%-38.0%----25.0%0.0%29.8%-9.5%-18.1% San Marcos Vacancy 13.6%22.9%18.8%18.3%21.9%22.0%16.2%14.3%10.2%11.4%9.3%5.9%7.3%9.4%6.9%8.7%9.4%8.5%8.7%12.8% Y/Y % Change ---68.4%-17.9%-2.7%19.7%0.5%-26.4%-11.7%-28.7%11.8%-18.4%-36.6%23.7%28.8%---26.1%8.0%-9.6%-1.6%-12.5% Encinitas Vacancy 11.1%10.1%7.4%5.2%5.4%4.1%5.3%4.2%2.7%5.3%4.1%3.8%6.4%5.8%6.3%6.8%5.8%5.8%5.1%4.7% Y/Y % Change ----9.0%-26.7%-29.7%3.8%-24.1%29.3%-20.8%-35.7%96.3%-22.6%-7.3%68.4%-9.4%---7.9%-14.7%0.0%16.5%2.2% Vista Vacancy 17.3%21.2%19.3%16.6%16.9%21.4%18.0%10.2%12.9%14.3%10.6%18.0%20.9%20.6%20.1%20.8%20.6%20.8%16.9%16.4% Y/Y % Change ---22.5%-9.0%-14.0%1.8%26.6%-15.9%-43.3%26.5%10.9%-25.9%69.8%16.1%-1.4%---3.5%-1.0%1.0%9.8%4.4% Village Vacancy 3.9%4.0%1.8%2.7%5.0%3.8%4.8%7.5%4.7%2.5%1.1%2.0%6.1%3.2%2.3%2.1%3.2%2.5%3.0%4.1% Y/Y % Change ---2.6%-55.0%50.0%85.2%-24.0%26.3%56.3%-37.3%-46.8%-56.0%81.8%205.0%-47.5%----8.7%52.4%-21.9%-7.4%3.5% Olde Carlsbad Vacancy 40.3%27.7%21.8%15.8%11.4%16.4%16.5%3.6%4.3%2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.7%4.3%9.7%9.7%4.3%2.4%6.4% Y/Y % Change ----31.3%-21.3%-27.5%-27.8%43.9%0.6%-78.2%19.4%-51.2%####------------125.6%0.0%-55.7%17.7%-9.3% South Beach Vacancy 17.0%17.3%17.1%15.1%12.5%11.1%8.1%7.9%11.3%12.2%11.5%9.8%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.8%2.6%1.8%9.9%10.1% Y/Y % Change ---1.8%-1.2%-11.7%-17.2%-11.2%-27.0%-2.5%43.0%8.0%-5.7%-14.8%37.8%-80.7%---0.0%225.0%-30.8%-25.5%-29.7% Industrial Corridor Vacancy 26.8%27.2%30.2%24.7%21.0%22.0%22.5%24.1%25.0%23.9%21.0%19.2%22.5%19.7%18.5%20.1%19.7%20.0%21.3%22.1% Y/Y % Change ---1.5%11.0%-18.2%-15.0%4.8%2.3%7.1%3.7%-4.4%-12.1%-8.6%17.2%-12.4%---8.6%-2.0%1.5%-4.7%-4.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class B 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 76 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 71 of 142------=------------------------------------------------------------------------------------._ ' ---------------------::s ------------------------------------.......... - -r-,. - - - - - - ---I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 167 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 -2 Net Absorption T 5 -5 1 6 3 -6 -6 -14 3 2 2 4 -12 8 ---2 6 1 1 -2 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.7%6.4%5.8%2.6%0.7%4.3%7.9%7.3%5.6%4.3%2.9%0.6%8.0%2.8%7.7%6.3%2.8%2.3%3.7%4.4% Vacant SF 7 11 10 5 1 8 14 12 9 7 5 1 13 5 12 10 5 4 6 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$24.23 $19.62 $20.95 $19.62 $21.31 $22.01 $27.08 $25.66 $26.86 $26.48 $29.02 $30.83 $33.90 $31.24 $32.49 $32.91 $31.24 $32.03 $30.29 $27.44 % Change -6.7%-19.0%6.8%-6.3%8.6%3.3%23.0%-5.2%4.7%-1.4%9.6%6.2%10.0%-7.8%---1.3%-5.1%2.5%3.1%4.8% Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -1 -6 1 -4 7 -1 2 0 2 -3 0 0 3 -2 ----2 0 0 0 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 1.6%9.3%8.2%13.3%4.1%5.2%2.6%2.2%0.0%3.5%3.0%3.2%0.0%2.8%0.0%2.4%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.7% Vacant SF 1 7 6 10 3 4 2 2 0 3 2 3 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.79 $25.35 $24.00 $17.15 $17.58 $17.35 $17.35 ---$32.74 ---$33.36 $45.93 $34.58 $43.57 $41.81 $44.05 $43.57 $43.57 $39.36 $30.31 % Change ----1.7%-5.3%-28.5%2.5%-1.3%0.0%------------37.7%-24.7%26.0%---5.4%-1.1%0.0%5.9%9.8% South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 ---0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$41.97 $41.97 ------------------------$29.37 ---$29.37 $29.37 ------$29.37 $29.37 % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Class C 21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group77 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 72 of 142I I I I I ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 4,707 4,707 4,712 4,710 4,712 4,712 4,701 4,681 4,681 4,664 4,631 4,630 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,630 4,663 Net Deliveries R 4,432 0 5 -1 1 0 -11 -20 0 -17 -33 -2 -18 0 ---0 0 0 -14 -10 Net Absorption T 4,073 -94 9 -25 58 -42 23 38 80 -30 25 -6 -22 -32 ----28 -14 37 -13 9 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.7%9.7%9.6%10.1%8.9%9.8%9.1%7.9%6.2%6.5%5.3%5.4%5.5%6.2%5.3%5.9%6.2%5.4%5.8%7.1% Vacant SF 362 457 452 476 419 462 428 370 290 303 245 250 254 286 244 272 286 249 268 331 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$22.44 $20.82 $20.38 $20.11 $18.73 $19.45 $19.11 $19.23 $20.27 $21.01 $22.23 $22.48 $25.28 $27.05 $26.57 $27.23 $27.05 $27.14 $23.61 $21.48 % Change -38.9%-7.2%-2.1%-1.3%-6.9%3.8%-1.7%0.6%5.4%3.7%5.8%1.1%12.5%7.0%---2.5%-0.7%0.3%5.9%3.0% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 374 374 374 374 374 374 374 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 363 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 -2 Net Absorption T 2 -16 -10 -2 18 4 -4 -10 0 -4 8 -3 -15 -5 ----5 8 8 -4 -1 Total Vacancy Rate T 4.9%9.2%11.8%12.3%7.5%6.5%7.5%6.1%6.2%7.2%5.1%5.9%10.1%11.5%12.2%13.7%11.5%9.2%8.0%7.4% Vacant SF 18 34 44 46 28 24 28 22 22 26 18 21 36 41 44 49 41 33 28 27 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$26.13 $22.53 $23.27 $22.20 $19.05 $20.05 $22.69 $24.36 $26.91 $26.17 $27.74 $31.23 $33.25 $29.69 $29.62 $28.20 $29.69 $29.97 $29.62 $26.11 % Change 0.9%-13.8%3.3%-4.6%-14.2%5.2%13.2%7.4%10.5%-2.7%6.0%12.6%6.5%-10.7%----4.8%5.3%0.9%2.0%2.9% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 418 418 418 418 418 418 412 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 412 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 -1 Net Absorption T -9 -23 4 -2 10 -8 -11 9 18 2 -3 0 9 -1 ----7 -5 1 1 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.7%13.3%12.3%12.8%10.5%12.3%13.7%11.3%6.9%6.4%7.1%7.2%5.1%5.4%2.5%4.3%5.4%5.1%6.2%8.6% Vacant SF 32 56 51 54 44 51 56 46 28 26 29 30 21 22 10 18 22 21 26 35 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.23 $22.69 $22.45 $21.97 $20.76 $21.33 $20.78 $21.62 $22.80 $21.20 $24.20 $30.80 $28.07 $31.22 $28.36 $29.49 $31.22 $31.99 $27.10 $24.28 % Change 4.6%-10.1%-1.1%-2.1%-5.5%2.7%-2.6%4.0%5.5%-7.0%14.2%27.3%-8.9%11.2%---4.0%5.9%2.5%6.5%3.6% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 433 433 433 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -9 5 12 -1 -3 -9 9 -6 13 -1 11 -16 -11 -6 ---3 -12 6 -5 -2 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.0%7.8%5.0%5.0%5.6%7.7%5.7%7.0%3.9%4.2%1.6%5.4%7.9%9.3%7.2%6.5%9.3%7.9%5.7%5.8% Vacant SF 39 34 22 22 24 33 25 30 17 18 7 23 34 40 31 28 40 34 24 25 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$17.43 $16.57 $16.04 $15.16 $14.99 $15.21 $15.76 $15.67 $18.44 $15.70 $17.58 $18.77 $18.12 $18.40 $17.29 $18.14 $18.40 $18.40 $17.71 $16.86 % Change 5.5%-4.9%-3.2%-5.5%-1.1%1.5%3.6%-0.6%17.7%-14.9%12.0%6.8%-3.5%1.5%---4.9%1.4%0.0%0.0%2.0% Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 279 279 282 282 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 284 284 284 284 284 284 285 285 Net Deliveries R 5 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 0 7 -1 10 0 -1 5 3 2 -9 6 -4 -1 ----1 0 -5 -1 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 6.8%6.7%5.2%5.5%3.1%3.2%3.7%1.8%0.9%0.2%3.3%1.2%2.2%2.7%2.1%2.6%2.7%4.6%1.9%2.2% Vacant SF 19 19 15 16 9 9 11 5 3 1 9 3 6 8 6 7 8 13 5 6 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.26 $28.69 $31.04 $34.12 $32.99 $32.39 $31.62 $32.85 $35.48 $36.06 $45.26 $43.89 $44.32 $43.03 $40.25 $40.06 $43.03 $40.75 $42.51 $37.79 % Change -12.1%-11.1%8.2%9.9%-3.3%-1.8%-2.4%3.9%8.0%1.6%25.5%-3.0%1.0%-2.9%----0.5%7.4%-5.3%3.9%2.3% Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 531 531 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 Net Deliveries R 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -22 1 -10 -10 -3 -9 5 4 14 13 5 13 -4 -8 ----6 -8 3 4 3 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.7%10.5%13.7%15.5%16.1%17.7%16.7%16.0%13.4%10.9%9.9%7.4%8.2%9.7%7.1%8.3%9.7%9.1%9.2%12.6% Vacant SF 57 56 74 84 87 96 90 86 72 59 53 40 44 52 38 45 52 49 50 68 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$19.98 $17.90 $17.23 $16.54 $17.99 $18.26 $17.77 $17.08 $18.16 $20.77 $15.68 $16.34 $18.81 $27.52 $18.81 $28.61 $27.52 $28.13 $19.82 $18.84 % Change 7.5%-10.4%-3.7%-4.0%8.8%1.5%-2.7%-3.9%6.3%14.4%-24.5%4.2%15.1%46.3%---52.1%-3.8%2.2%8.7%5.2% Source: Costar Source: CoStar -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Class C 21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 78 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 73 of 142 - ■ ■ ■ ■ ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$22.4 $20.8 $20.4 $20.1 $18.7 $19.5 $19.1 $19.2 $20.3 $21.0 $22.2 $22.5 $25.3 $27.1 $26.6 $27.2 $27.1 $27.1 $23.6 $21.5 Y/Y % Change ----7.2%-2.1%-1.3%-6.9%3.8%-1.7%0.6%5.4%3.7%5.8%1.1%12.5%7.0%---2.5%-0.7%0.3%5.9%6.1% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$26.1 $22.5 $23.3 $22.2 $19.1 $20.1 $22.7 $24.4 $26.9 $26.2 $27.7 $31.2 $33.3 $29.7 $29.6 $28.2 $29.7 $30.0 $29.6 $26.1 Y/Y % Change ----13.8%3.3%-4.6%-14.2%5.2%13.2%7.4%10.5%-2.7%6.0%12.6%6.5%-10.7%----4.8%5.3%0.9%2.0%6.0% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.2 $22.7 $22.5 $22.0 $20.8 $21.3 $20.8 $21.6 $22.8 $21.2 $24.2 $30.8 $28.1 $31.2 $28.4 $29.5 $31.2 $32.0 $27.1 $24.3 Y/Y % Change ----10.1%-1.1%-2.1%-5.5%2.7%-2.6%4.0%5.5%-7.0%14.2%27.3%-8.9%11.2%---4.0%5.9%2.5%6.5%7.3% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$17.4 $16.6 $16.0 $15.2 $15.0 $15.2 $15.8 $15.7 $18.4 $15.7 $17.6 $18.8 $18.1 $18.4 $17.3 $18.1 $18.4 $18.4 $17.7 $16.9 Y/Y % Change ----4.9%-3.2%-5.5%-1.1%1.5%3.6%-0.6%17.7%-14.9%12.0%6.8%-3.5%1.5%---4.9%1.4%0.0%0.0%3.9% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$32.3 $28.7 $31.0 $34.1 $33.0 $32.4 $31.6 $32.9 $35.5 $36.1 $45.3 $43.9 $44.3 $43.0 $40.3 $40.1 $43.0 $40.8 $42.5 $37.8 Y/Y % Change ----11.1%8.2%9.9%-3.3%-1.8%-2.4%3.9%8.0%1.6%25.5%-3.0%1.0%-2.9%----0.5%7.4%-5.3%3.9%4.7% Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$20.0 $17.9 $17.2 $16.5 $18.0 $18.3 $17.8 $17.1 $18.2 $20.8 $15.7 $16.3 $18.8 $27.5 $18.8 $28.6 $27.5 $28.1 $19.8 $18.8 Y/Y % Change ----10.4%-3.7%-4.0%8.8%1.5%-2.7%-3.9%6.3%14.4%-24.5%4.2%15.1%46.3%---52.1%-3.8%2.2%8.7%10.7% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$24.2 $19.6 $21.0 $19.6 $21.3 $22.0 $27.1 $25.7 $26.9 $26.5 $29.0 $30.8 $33.9 $31.2 $32.5 $32.9 $31.2 $32.0 $30.3 $27.4 Y/Y % Change ----19.0%6.8%-6.3%8.6%3.3%23.0%-5.2%4.7%-1.4%9.6%6.2%10.0%-7.8%---1.3%-5.1%2.5%3.1%9.7% Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.8 $25.4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 ---$32.7 ---$33.4 $45.9 $34.6 $43.6 $41.8 $44.1 $43.6 $43.6 $39.4 $30.3 Y/Y % Change ----1.7%-5.3%-28.5%2.5%-1.3%0.0%------------37.7%-24.7%26.0%---5.4%-1.1%0.0%5.9%20.5% South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$42.0 $42.0 ------------------------$29.4 ---$29.4 $29.4 ------$29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Class C 21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 79 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 74 of 142~ ----, - ... r ' ~ I -----.,,, ' _, . ,. -' --_, - I \ .,,, ' _, .,,, ' ,_ I \ .,,, ----1\ ------. ~ ---, \ . . ----~ ---r ,, I ------------------" --------.. ~ ... ---. --I ' I ., ' -I ..... --'----' I -_ ..... ------------~ ~ "' --I ---, , . ..... -l ' I ..... --------------' I I ' ~ . ~ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 7.7%9.7%9.6%10.1%8.9%9.8%9.1%7.9%6.2%6.5%5.3%5.4%5.5%6.2%5.3%5.9%6.2%5.4%5.8%7.1% Y/Y % Change ---26.0%-1.0%5.2%-11.9%10.1%-7.1%-13.2%-21.5%4.8%-18.5%1.9%1.9%12.7%---11.3%5.1%-12.9%0.0%-9.3% Carlsbad Vacancy 4.9%9.2%11.8%12.3%7.5%6.5%7.5%6.1%6.2%7.2%5.1%5.9%10.1%11.5%12.2%13.7%11.5%9.2%8.0%7.4% Y/Y % Change ---87.8%28.3%4.2%-39.0%-13.3%15.4%-18.7%1.6%16.1%-29.2%15.7%71.2%13.9%---12.3%-16.1%-20.0%13.2%-1.3% Oceanside Vacancy 7.7%13.3%12.3%12.8%10.5%12.3%13.7%11.3%6.9%6.4%7.1%7.2%5.1%5.4%2.5%4.3%5.4%5.1%6.2%8.6% Y/Y % Change ---72.7%-7.5%4.1%-18.0%17.1%11.4%-17.5%-38.9%-7.2%10.9%1.4%-29.2%5.9%---72.0%25.6%-5.6%-4.8%-15.9% San Marcos Vacancy 9.0%7.8%5.0%5.0%5.6%7.7%5.7%7.0%3.9%4.2%1.6%5.4%7.9%9.3%7.2%6.5%9.3%7.9%5.7%5.8% Y/Y % Change ----13.3%-35.9%0.0%12.0%37.5%-26.0%22.8%-44.3%7.7%-61.9%237.5%46.3%17.7%----9.7%43.1%-15.1%19.0%13.2% Encinitas Vacancy 6.8%6.7%5.2%5.5%3.1%3.2%3.7%1.8%0.9%0.2%3.3%1.2%2.2%2.7%2.1%2.6%2.7%4.6%1.9%2.2% Y/Y % Change ----1.5%-22.4%5.8%-43.6%3.2%15.6%-51.4%-50.0%-77.8%1550.0%-63.6%83.3%22.7%---23.8%3.8%70.4%24.6%-13.3% Vista Vacancy 10.7%10.5%13.7%15.5%16.1%17.7%16.7%16.0%13.4%10.9%9.9%7.4%8.2%9.7%7.1%8.3%9.7%9.1%9.2%12.6% Y/Y % Change ----1.9%30.5%13.1%3.9%9.9%-5.6%-4.2%-16.3%-18.7%-9.2%-25.3%10.8%18.3%---16.9%16.9%-6.2%-6.3%-8.9% Village Vacancy 3.7%6.4%5.8%2.6%0.7%4.3%7.9%7.3%5.6%4.3%2.9%0.6%8.0%2.8%7.7%6.3%2.8%2.3%3.7%4.4% Y/Y % Change ---73.0%-9.4%-55.2%-73.1%514.3%83.7%-7.6%-23.3%-23.2%-32.6%-79.3%1233.3%-65.0%----18.2%-55.6%-17.9%-12.9%1.5% Olde Carlsbad Vacancy 1.6%9.3%8.2%13.3%4.1%5.2%2.6%2.2%0.0%3.5%3.0%3.2%0.0%2.8%0.0%2.4%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.7% Y/Y % Change ---481.3%-11.8%62.2%-69.2%26.8%-50.0%-15.4%-100.0%----14.3%6.7%-100.0%---------16.7%0.0%----26.8% South Beach Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Vacancy 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%36.6%-73.2%0.0%0.0%-100.0%----------66.4%-100.0%----------------100.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class C 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 80 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 75 of 142---' ---"------.. ~ -------.. ,.. , , ✓ " -✓ ' ✓ "' ... ,, ' ,, -... ,I ' -' ,I --,. ~ -----------~ ' r -----..... r ..... -----------------------------------, --_ ..... ____ ------------------, -------------------' -----------~~ ~ ~ ... ~ ,-re,. -------------I I I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 ---0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$41.97 $41.97 ------------------------$29.37 ---$29.37 $29.37 ------$29.37 $29.37 % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Creative 21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group81 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 76 of 142I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ■ ■ ■ --~ -~ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 402 402 410 410 413 413 413 413 417 417 417 419 419 419 419 419 419 419 418 416 Net Deliveries R 397 0 8 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 1 Net Absorption T 353 -20 -1 13 -47 14 26 22 -29 -23 20 23 8 25 ---21 -3 0 10 4 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.0%15.9%17.8%14.6%26.6%23.2%16.9%11.5%19.1%24.7%20.0%15.0%13.2%7.3%11.6%6.6%7.3%7.2%16.0%17.8% Vacant SF 44 64 73 60 110 96 70 48 80 103 83 63 55 31 49 28 31 30 67 74 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$28.90 $26.27 $22.15 $25.14 $23.11 $25.32 $26.55 $29.76 $32.70 $27.28 $31.54 $34.16 $36.43 $43.16 $42.22 $42.46 $43.16 $47.99 $34.51 $31.00 % Change ----9.1%-15.7%13.5%-8.1%9.6%4.9%12.1%9.9%-16.6%15.6%8.3%6.6%18.5%---0.6%1.6%11.2%5.7%5.6% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -4 -23 15 -6 -48 17 32 12 -25 -38 26 29 9 13 ---8 3 0 8 3 Total Vacancy Rate T 14.3%28.1%19.0%22.4%51.6%41.0%21.6%14.1%29.3%52.3%36.6%18.9%13.6%5.6%12.4%7.7%5.6%5.6%25.4%28.5% Vacant SF 23 46 31 37 84 67 35 23 48 85 60 31 22 9 20 13 9 9 41 46 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$28.17 $21.47 $19.20 $21.50 $22.43 $22.37 $23.38 $25.48 $26.69 $27.26 $28.05 $28.22 $27.26 $28.07 $29.35 $29.05 $28.07 $29.01 $27.77 $25.92 % Change -5.2%-23.8%-10.6%12.0%4.3%-0.3%4.5%9.0%4.7%2.1%2.9%0.6%-3.4%3.0%----1.0%-3.4%3.3%1.0%2.7% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 1 -6 4 -5 6 3 -2 0 -2 4 -2 -1 1 ---0 -1 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 15.5%10.6%41.7%21.5%46.6%15.1%0.0%9.9%11.2%20.1%0.0%10.6%16.7%10.8%6.4%6.4%10.8%10.8%11.6%14.1% Vacant SF 3 2 8 4 9 3 0 2 2 4 0 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$21.32 $21.32 $18.92 $17.40 $17.16 $18.32 $18.32 $19.52 $18.30 $20.73 $22.52 ---$35.23 $41.97 $35.69 $37.17 $41.97 $41.97 $30.11 $23.56 % Change ---0.0%-11.3%-8.0%-1.4%6.8%0.0%6.6%-6.2%13.3%8.6%------19.1%---4.1%12.9%0.0%18.1%9.2% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 1 Net Absorption T -3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -2 ---2 -2 -2 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 60.0%0.0%6.4%0.0%4.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.0%22.3%20.9%2.8%22.3%36.8%5.1%4.7% Vacant SF 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$21.00 $23.52 $23.36 $18.00 $23.36 $20.44 ------$27.00 $27.00 ------$48.92 $49.69 $48.92 $28.52 $49.69 $49.69 $41.87 $32.74 % Change ---12.0%-0.7%-22.9%29.8%-12.5%---------0.0%---------1.6%----41.7%74.2%0.0%13.0%10.7% Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 3 0 -2 ---2 -2 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.4%1.4%0.0%9.7%10.1%0.0%9.7%9.7%5.9%3.0% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 2 0 2 2 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)---------------------------$11.88 $18.96 ---------------------$15.42 $15.42 % Change ------------------------------59.6%--------------------------- Source: Costar Source: CoStar -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Creative 21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 82 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 77 of 142 ■ ■ ■ ■ ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$28.9 $26.3 $22.2 $25.1 $23.1 $25.3 $26.6 $29.8 $32.7 $27.3 $31.5 $34.2 $36.4 $43.2 $42.2 $42.5 $43.2 $48.0 $34.5 $31.0 Y/Y % Change ----9.1%-15.7%13.5%-8.1%9.6%4.9%12.1%9.9%-16.6%15.6%8.3%6.6%18.5%---0.6%1.6%11.2%5.7%11.4% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$28.2 $21.5 $19.2 $21.5 $22.4 $22.4 $23.4 $25.5 $26.7 $27.3 $28.1 $28.2 $27.3 $28.1 $29.4 $29.1 $28.1 $29.0 $27.8 $25.9 Y/Y % Change ----23.8%-10.6%12.0%4.3%-0.3%4.5%9.0%4.7%2.1%2.9%0.6%-3.4%3.0%----1.0%-3.4%3.3%1.0%5.5% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$21.3 $21.3 $18.9 $17.4 $17.2 $18.3 $18.3 $19.5 $18.3 $20.7 $22.5 ---$35.2 $42.0 $35.7 $37.2 $42.0 $42.0 $30.1 $23.6 Y/Y % Change ---0.0%-11.3%-8.0%-1.4%6.8%0.0%6.6%-6.2%13.3%8.6%------19.1%---4.1%12.9%0.0%18.1%19.3% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$21.0 $23.5 $23.4 $18.0 $23.4 $20.4 ------$27.0 $27.0 ------$48.9 $49.7 $48.9 $28.5 $49.7 $49.7 $41.9 $32.7 Y/Y % Change ---12.0%-0.7%-22.9%29.8%-12.5%---------0.0%---------1.6%----41.7%74.2%0.0%13.0%22.5% Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)---------------------------$11.9 $19.0 ---------------------$15.4 $15.4 Y/Y % Change ------------------------------59.6%--------------------------- Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$42.0 $42.0 ------------------------$29.4 ---$29.4 $29.4 ------$29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Creative 21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 83 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 78 of 142,-----.. ' I \ I \ . , \ ,, I " ~ . ., ' I \ I "' I I . \ ' ~ ~ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 11.0%15.9%17.8%14.6%26.6%23.2%16.9%11.5%19.1%24.7%20.0%15.0%13.2%7.3%11.6%6.6%7.3%7.2%16.0%17.8% Y/Y % Change ---44.5%11.9%-18.0%82.2%-12.8%-27.2%-32.0%66.1%29.3%-19.0%-25.0%-12.0%-44.7%----43.1%10.6%-1.4%-17.5%-12.9% Carlsbad Vacancy 14.3%28.1%19.0%22.4%51.6%41.0%21.6%14.1%29.3%52.3%36.6%18.9%13.6%5.6%12.4%7.7%5.6%5.6%25.4%28.5% Y/Y % Change ---96.5%-32.4%17.9%130.4%-20.5%-47.3%-34.7%107.8%78.5%-30.0%-48.4%-28.0%-58.8%----37.9%-27.3%0.0%-28.2%-24.2% Oceanside Vacancy 15.5%10.6%41.7%21.5%46.6%15.1%0.0%9.9%11.2%20.1%0.0%10.6%16.7%10.8%6.4%6.4%10.8%10.8%11.6%14.1% Y/Y % Change ----31.6%293.4%-48.4%116.7%-67.6%-100.0%---13.1%79.5%-100.0%---57.5%-35.3%---0.0%68.8%0.0%-0.7%-12.9% San Marcos Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Encinitas Vacancy 60.0%0.0%6.4%0.0%4.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.0%22.3%20.9%2.8%22.3%36.8%5.1%4.7% Y/Y % Change ----100.0%----100.0%----100.0%----------100.0%---------643.3%----86.6%696.4%65.0%4.5%--- Vista Vacancy 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.4%1.4%0.0%9.7%10.1%0.0%9.7%9.7%5.9%3.0% Y/Y % Change ----------------------------------92.4%-100.0%-------100.0%---0.0%------ Village Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Industrial Corridor Vacancy 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%36.6%-73.2%0.0%0.0%-100.0%----------66.4%-100.0%----------------100.0% 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Creative 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 84 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 79 of 142' " -" / -------~ ............... -" / -------~ ............... " / ........... _;' ............. " / ----......... ~ --......... "~---~ ----......... ___.,---......... -~ ... ......__ ---.............. ~ -~ ~ ~ ------~ .--............. ~c " ---.............._ .--~ _,_ '----............ -------------I --~ ~ ---' --' ~ ------' ~, ~ ' ., ' - ~ ' , ' ~ '-, ' r .... , ~ ~ .. , -~ -------------... , --.... , .... -, --.... ~ .... -~ ----~ .... - I I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 96 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 1 1 Net Absorption T -2 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -6 6 4 3 -2 -2 1 ---0 -1 0 1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 4.5%2.8%1.5%1.5%2.6%2.9%2.8%8.8%2.1%3.5%0.0%2.3%4.6%3.6%2.1%2.1%3.6%3.6%2.8%3.3% Vacant SF 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 8 2 3 0 2 5 4 2 2 4 4 3 3 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.94 $23.62 $22.22 $25.00 $22.07 $23.05 $21.36 $26.39 $35.00 $38.79 $33.52 ---$28.52 ------------$33.52 $33.61 $28.59 % Change -10.7%-8.9%-5.9%12.5%-11.7%4.4%-7.3%23.5%32.6%10.8%-13.6%--------------------------- Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 6 5 4 6 -5 0 4 3 -1 -1 0 2 0 ---0 0 0 0 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 44.7%33.5%22.8%15.1%4.0%13.1%13.0%5.4%0.0%2.0%4.7%4.8%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.9%0.9%0.9%2.5%4.8% Vacant SF 22 17 11 8 2 7 7 3 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$41.01 $41.82 $40.37 $41.65 $27.12 $21.00 $37.05 $41.14 $33.76 ------$43.30 $47.30 $50.30 $52.77 $50.30 $50.30 $50.30 $46.97 $37.62 % Change ---2.0%-3.5%3.2%-34.9%-22.6%76.4%11.0%-17.9%---------9.2%6.3%----4.7%0.0%0.0%8.3%1.9% South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 6 1 1 3 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 ---0 -3 1 -1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 18.1%8.3%6.0%5.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.8%1.8%1.8%5.8%4.0%1.2%0.9% Vacant SF 11 5 4 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 3 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 ------------------$32.05 $30.00 $30.00 $32.05 $33.00 $32.05 $27.54 % Change 0.0%0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%------------------------0.0%6.8%3.0%---2.1% Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 ---0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$41.97 $41.97 ------------------------$29.37 ---$29.37 $29.37 ------$29.37 $29.37 % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Medical 21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group85 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 80 of 142I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 5,832 6,023 6,114 6,169 6,290 6,405 6,422 6,439 6,414 6,661 6,736 6,736 6,893 6,931 6,886 6,946 6,931 6,931 6,791 6,593 Net Deliveries R ---191 92 55 121 115 17 17 -25 246 75 0 157 38 ---60 -15 0 103 76 Net Absorption T ---29 127 23 167 100 34 208 67 226 116 74 -53 35 ---13 35 0 80 97 Total Vacancy Rate T 12.1%14.4%13.6%14.0%13.0%13.0%12.7%9.7%8.3%8.3%7.6%6.5%9.4%9.4%9.5%10.1%9.4%9.4%8.2%9.8% Vacant SF 706 867 832 864 818 833 816 625 532 553 512 438 648 652 654 702 652 652 560 642 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.63 $31.52 $32.20 $31.64 $29.25 $27.88 $29.70 $29.74 $30.06 $31.89 $32.10 $32.27 $33.20 $32.54 $33.47 $34.31 $32.54 $33.27 $32.40 $30.86 % Change ----6.3%2.2%-1.7%-7.6%-4.7%6.5%0.1%1.1%6.1%0.7%0.5%2.9%-2.0%---2.5%-5.2%2.2%1.6%0.3% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 486 531 531 531 531 531 531 531 531 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 548 Net Deliveries R 69 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 7 4 Net Absorption T 46 47 -1 18 15 -55 10 46 13 33 3 5 -22 2 ---12 -6 -14 4 5 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.5%14.6%14.8%11.5%8.7%19.0%17.1%8.4%6.0%6.1%5.5%4.6%8.4%8.0%9.2%7.0%8.0%10.5%6.5%9.2% Vacant SF 80 77 79 61 46 101 91 45 32 35 31 26 48 45 52 40 45 59 37 50 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$37.31 $36.20 $36.96 $37.79 $25.81 $28.94 $37.71 $37.49 $38.87 $39.45 $37.41 $37.85 $43.66 $41.47 $43.95 $43.38 $41.47 $42.77 $39.97 $36.87 % Change -2.5%-3.0%2.1%2.2%-31.7%12.1%30.3%-0.6%3.7%1.5%-5.2%1.2%15.4%-5.0%----1.3%-4.4%3.1%1.3%0.9% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 636 662 742 753 753 810 832 836 836 836 836 836 921 914 914 914 914 914 868 841 Net Deliveries R 175 26 80 11 0 57 22 4 0 0 0 0 85 -6 ---0 0 0 16 16 Net Absorption T 81 -1 91 26 56 57 13 18 0 38 -16 18 53 30 ---27 -15 -22 25 27 Total Vacancy Rate T 25.0%28.1%23.6%21.2%13.8%12.9%13.6%11.8%11.8%7.2%9.1%7.0%9.8%5.9%7.2%4.3%5.9%8.3%7.8%10.3% Vacant SF 159 186 175 160 104 105 113 99 99 60 76 58 90 54 66 39 54 76 68 86 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.76 $30.36 $30.82 $26.37 $29.47 $23.23 $24.46 $26.30 $26.67 $26.65 $27.69 $28.41 $32.90 $31.80 $32.33 $32.02 $31.80 $30.77 $29.49 $27.76 % Change -1.9%-10.1%1.5%-14.4%11.8%-21.2%5.3%7.5%1.4%-0.1%3.9%2.6%15.8%-3.3%----1.0%-0.7%-3.2%3.6%1.9% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 729 786 786 786 857 857 857 857 857 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 887 Net Deliveries R 75 57 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 12 13 Net Absorption T 30 -22 19 -27 69 12 17 3 43 39 21 32 -14 -2 ---1 2 7 15 22 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.7%19.1%16.7%20.1%18.7%17.3%15.3%15.0%10.0%11.6%9.3%5.8%7.3%7.5%7.8%7.7%7.5%6.7%8.3%11.8% Vacant SF 71 150 131 158 160 148 131 129 86 106 85 53 67 69 72 71 69 61 76 103 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.20 $29.92 $29.99 $29.46 $27.32 $27.96 $29.41 $29.39 $30.00 $27.95 $28.77 $31.33 $30.81 $26.41 $31.03 $31.14 $26.41 $28.03 $29.05 $28.94 % Change 32.3%-9.9%0.2%-1.8%-7.3%2.3%5.2%-0.1%2.1%-6.8%2.9%8.9%-1.7%-14.3%---0.4%-15.2%6.1%-2.5%-1.1% Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 586 650 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 Net Deliveries R 82 63 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 5 -4 32 11 -15 7 5 79 -7 4 13 2 -21 -3 ----7 -9 -5 -1 6 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.9%25.6%21.7%20.0%22.3%21.2%20.5%8.5%9.6%9.0%7.1%6.8%10.0%10.4%7.9%9.0%10.4%11.2%8.7%12.5% Vacant SF 99 166 143 132 147 140 135 56 63 59 47 45 66 68 52 59 68 74 57 83 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.25 $33.31 $33.56 $30.26 $28.81 $27.92 $28.14 $25.36 $26.35 $27.07 $27.22 $28.88 $31.85 $33.90 $33.16 $35.09 $33.90 $32.99 $29.78 $28.55 % Change 23.5%-2.7%0.8%-9.8%-4.8%-3.1%0.8%-9.9%3.9%2.7%0.6%6.1%10.3%6.4%---5.8%-3.4%-2.7%5.2%1.1% Source: Costar Source: CoStar -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Medical 21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 86 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 81 of 142 - - ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.6 $31.5 $32.2 $31.6 $29.3 $27.9 $29.7 $29.7 $30.1 $31.9 $32.1 $32.3 $33.2 $32.5 $33.5 $34.3 $32.5 $33.3 $32.4 $30.9 Y/Y % Change ----6.3%2.2%-1.7%-7.6%-4.7%6.5%0.1%1.1%6.1%0.7%0.5%2.9%-2.0%---2.5%-5.2%2.2%1.6%0.6% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$37.3 $36.2 $37.0 $37.8 $25.8 $28.9 $37.7 $37.5 $38.9 $39.5 $37.4 $37.9 $43.7 $41.5 $44.0 $43.4 $41.5 $42.8 $40.0 $36.9 Y/Y % Change ----3.0%2.1%2.2%-31.7%12.1%30.3%-0.6%3.7%1.5%-5.2%1.2%15.4%-5.0%----1.3%-4.4%3.1%1.3%1.9% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.8 $30.4 $30.8 $26.4 $29.5 $23.2 $24.5 $26.3 $26.7 $26.7 $27.7 $28.4 $32.9 $31.8 $32.3 $32.0 $31.8 $30.8 $29.5 $27.8 Y/Y % Change ----10.1%1.5%-14.4%11.8%-21.2%5.3%7.5%1.4%-0.1%3.9%2.6%15.8%-3.3%----1.0%-0.7%-3.2%3.6%3.8% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$33.2 $29.9 $30.0 $29.5 $27.3 $28.0 $29.4 $29.4 $30.0 $28.0 $28.8 $31.3 $30.8 $26.4 $31.0 $31.1 $26.4 $28.0 $29.1 $28.9 Y/Y % Change ----9.9%0.2%-1.8%-7.3%2.3%5.2%-0.1%2.1%-6.8%2.9%8.9%-1.7%-14.3%---0.4%-15.2%6.1%-2.5%-2.2% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$34.3 $33.3 $33.6 $30.3 $28.8 $27.9 $28.1 $25.4 $26.4 $27.1 $27.2 $28.9 $31.9 $33.9 $33.2 $35.1 $33.9 $33.0 $29.8 $28.6 Y/Y % Change ----2.7%0.8%-9.8%-4.8%-3.1%0.8%-9.9%3.9%2.7%0.6%6.1%10.3%6.4%---5.8%-3.4%-2.7%5.2%2.3% Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$25.9 $23.6 $22.2 $25.0 $22.1 $23.1 $21.4 $26.4 $35.0 $38.8 $33.5 ---$28.5 ------------$33.5 $33.6 $28.6 Y/Y % Change ----8.9%-5.9%12.5%-11.7%4.4%-7.3%23.5%32.6%10.8%-13.6%--------------------------- Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$41.0 $41.8 $40.4 $41.7 $27.1 $21.0 $37.1 $41.1 $33.8 ------$43.3 $47.3 $50.3 $52.8 $50.3 $50.3 $50.3 $47.0 $37.6 Y/Y % Change ---2.0%-3.5%3.2%-34.9%-22.6%76.4%11.0%-17.9%---------9.2%6.3%----4.7%0.0%0.0%8.3%3.8% South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 ------------------$32.1 $30.0 $30.0 $32.1 $33.0 $32.1 $27.5 Y/Y % Change ---0.0%0.0%-5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%------------------------0.0%6.8%3.0%---4.2% Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------$42.0 $42.0 ------------------------$29.4 ---$29.4 $29.4 ------$29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%---------------------------------0.0%------------ Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Medical 21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 87 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 82 of 142----------............ __,,_- ~ ~ -~ ------------- I ---------------,- I \' ,. ---..... ..... ..... ---------I \ -\ I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 12.1%14.4%13.6%14.0%13.0%13.0%12.7%9.7%8.3%8.3%7.6%6.5%9.4%9.4%9.5%10.1%9.4%9.4%8.2%9.8% Y/Y % Change ---19.0%-5.6%2.9%-7.1%0.0%-2.3%-23.6%-14.4%0.0%-8.4%-14.5%44.6%0.0%---6.3%-6.9%0.0%2.5%-7.7% Carlsbad Vacancy 16.5%14.6%14.8%11.5%8.7%19.0%17.1%8.4%6.0%6.1%5.5%4.6%8.4%8.0%9.2%7.0%8.0%10.5%6.5%9.2% Y/Y % Change ----11.5%1.4%-22.3%-24.3%118.4%-10.0%-50.9%-28.6%1.7%-9.8%-16.4%82.6%-4.8%----23.9%14.3%31.3%5.9%-7.0% Oceanside Vacancy 25.0%28.1%23.6%21.2%13.8%12.9%13.6%11.8%11.8%7.2%9.1%7.0%9.8%5.9%7.2%4.3%5.9%8.3%7.8%10.3% Y/Y % Change ---12.4%-16.0%-10.2%-34.9%-6.5%5.4%-13.2%0.0%-39.0%26.4%-23.1%40.0%-39.8%----40.3%37.2%40.7%-12.9%-22.6% San Marcos Vacancy 9.7%19.1%16.7%20.1%18.7%17.3%15.3%15.0%10.0%11.6%9.3%5.8%7.3%7.5%7.8%7.7%7.5%6.7%8.3%11.8% Y/Y % Change ---96.9%-12.6%20.4%-7.0%-7.5%-11.6%-2.0%-33.3%16.0%-19.8%-37.6%25.9%2.7%----1.3%-2.6%-10.7%-5.6%-17.9% Encinitas Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Vista Vacancy 16.9%25.6%21.7%20.0%22.3%21.2%20.5%8.5%9.6%9.0%7.1%6.8%10.0%10.4%7.9%9.0%10.4%11.2%8.7%12.5% Y/Y % Change ---51.5%-15.2%-7.8%11.5%-4.9%-3.3%-58.5%12.9%-6.3%-21.1%-4.2%47.1%4.0%---13.9%15.6%7.7%1.6%-12.3% Village Vacancy 4.5%2.8%1.5%1.5%2.6%2.9%2.8%8.8%2.1%3.5%0.0%2.3%4.6%3.6%2.1%2.1%3.6%3.6%2.8%3.3% Y/Y % Change ----37.8%-46.4%0.0%73.3%11.5%-3.4%214.3%-76.1%66.7%-100.0%---100.0%-21.7%---0.0%71.4%0.0%11.4%19.1% Olde Carlsbad Vacancy 44.7%33.5%22.8%15.1%4.0%13.1%13.0%5.4%0.0%2.0%4.7%4.8%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.9%0.9%0.9%2.5%4.8% Y/Y % Change ----25.1%-31.9%-33.8%-73.5%227.5%-0.8%-58.5%-100.0%---135.0%2.1%-100.0%---------0.0%0.0%----43.1% South Beach Vacancy 18.1%8.3%6.0%5.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.8%1.8%1.8%5.8%4.0%1.2%0.9% Y/Y % Change ----54.1%-27.7%-16.7%-100.0%----100.0%------------------------0.0%222.2%-31.0%---3.0% Industrial Corridor Vacancy 0.0%0.0%43.7%43.7%59.7%16.0%16.0%16.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.4%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%16.6% Y/Y % Change ---------0.0%36.6%-73.2%0.0%0.0%-100.0%----------66.4%-100.0%----------------100.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Medical 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 88 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 83 of 142--~ ~ -~ ~ ,; .., ~ ~ ~ --------- I I I I I I I I I ----------------..... -..,,, ~ -----,, ------------------..... -------..... __ ..... -------------------:--,,...---..... ---------~ -, ""'I - -·----------..... -----~------... - - - -•--'"""--"--Ill!--I I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 71 71 71 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 72 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 -3 0 0 ---0 0 0 -1 -1 Net Absorption T 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 -1 -1 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.2%9.2%9.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%3.2% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------$9.96 ------------------------------------------$9.96 % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 532 532 532 532 532 532 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 408 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 -154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 -15 Net Absorption T 6 -6 4 -4 6 5 -158 -6 9 0 -3 1 -8 4 ---8 0 0 -1 -15 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.9%2.1%1.4%2.1%1.0%0.0%0.9%2.4%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.6%2.6%1.6%3.8%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.1%1.0% Vacant SF 5 11 7 11 5 0 3 9 0 0 3 2 10 6 14 6 6 6 4 4 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$18.00 $14.40 $15.09 $15.44 $15.22 $16.52 $17.88 $20.97 $13.93 $19.80 $17.54 $22.20 $17.43 $22.54 $20.39 $12.74 $22.54 $22.54 $19.90 $18.40 % Change 1.9%-20.0%4.8%2.3%-1.4%8.5%8.2%17.3%-33.6%42.1%-11.4%26.6%-21.5%29.3%----37.5%76.9%0.0%10.1%3.9% Industrial Corridor Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,868 2,862 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 ---0 0 0 12 6 Net Absorption T -177 -3 71 54 -17 29 60 -46 -26 -9 -214 169 -11 283 ---20 192 3 44 22 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.8%11.9%9.4%7.5%8.1%7.1%5.0%6.6%7.5%7.8%15.3%9.4%9.8%1.9%9.2%8.5%1.9%1.8%8.8%7.9% Vacant SF 337 340 268 214 231 203 143 188 214 223 437 268 280 55 268 248 55 52 253 224 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$12.29 $11.32 $11.17 $10.92 $10.29 $10.27 $9.82 $12.38 $12.76 $12.58 $13.16 $13.65 $14.59 $14.77 $14.74 $14.77 $14.77 $16.33 $13.75 $12.43 % Change -5.0%-7.9%-1.3%-2.2%-5.8%-0.2%-4.4%26.1%3.1%-1.4%4.6%3.7%6.9%1.2%---0.2%0.0%10.6%3.0%3.1% Source: Costar -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Deliveries South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village Industrial 21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Performance (Sub)Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group89 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 84 of 142■ ■ ■ I I I I -I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J I I I I I I I --~ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Averages Market Factor (SF)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 54,170 54,382 54,596 54,550 54,674 54,862 54,945 55,004 55,590 55,864 57,613 58,256 59,000 59,056 59,068 59,060 59,056 59,056 57,958 56,486 Net Deliveries R 53,978 212 215 -47 125 187 83 59 586 274 1,749 643 744 55 ----8 -5 0 693 451 Net Absorption T 49,969 -1,000 412 67 551 446 1,011 771 892 95 808 81 1,461 1,706 ---288 881 0 830 782 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.4%9.6%9.2%9.0%8.2%7.7%6.0%4.7%4.1%4.4%5.9%6.8%5.5%2.7%4.7%4.2%2.7%2.7%5.1%5.6% Vacant SF 4,009 5,221 5,023 4,909 4,483 4,224 3,297 2,585 2,279 2,458 3,399 3,961 3,245 1,595 2,776 2,481 1,595 1,595 2,932 3,153 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$10.50 $9.39 $9.23 $8.93 $8.97 $9.19 $9.65 $10.04 $10.72 $11.09 $11.90 $12.17 $12.77 $12.97 $12.72 $12.74 $12.97 $13.22 $12.18 $10.95 % Change ----10.6%-1.7%-3.3%0.4%2.5%5.0%4.0%6.8%3.5%7.3%2.3%4.9%1.6%---0.2%1.8%1.9%3.9%3.8% Carlsbad Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,324 7,169 7,244 7,101 7,313 8,407 8,611 8,661 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,343 7,784 Net Deliveries R 30 0 0 0 0 37 -154 74 -143 212 1,094 204 50 59 ---0 0 0 324 143 Net Absorption T -176 -51 146 -160 58 143 -76 -48 27 204 265 463 295 742 ---201 488 0 394 207 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.4%11.1%9.1%11.3%10.5%9.0%8.1%9.7%7.5%7.4%16.3%12.9%10.0%2.1%10.0%7.7%2.1%2.1%9.7%9.4% Vacant SF 758 809 663 823 765 659 581 703 533 541 1,370 1,111 866 183 872 671 183 183 814 731 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$11.82 $10.76 $10.62 $10.01 $9.39 $9.70 $9.79 $10.93 $12.31 $11.86 $12.68 $12.90 $14.05 $14.23 $14.62 $14.35 $14.23 $14.52 $13.14 $11.78 % Change -1.1%-9.0%-1.3%-5.7%-6.2%3.3%0.9%11.6%12.6%-3.7%6.9%1.7%8.9%1.3%----1.8%-0.8%2.0%2.9%3.6% Oceanside Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 7,909 8,130 8,184 8,184 8,184 8,184 8,157 8,214 8,957 8,957 9,082 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,224 8,782 Net Deliveries R -12 222 54 0 0 0 -27 57 743 0 125 278 0 0 ---0 0 0 80 118 Net Absorption T 171 -249 4 188 106 49 213 487 881 -81 39 275 112 84 ---75 56 -9 86 217 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.7%16.2%16.7%14.4%13.1%12.5%9.6%4.3%2.4%3.3%4.2%4.1%2.9%2.0%3.4%2.6%2.0%2.1%3.3%5.8% Vacant SF 846 1,317 1,367 1,179 1,072 1,023 783 353 215 296 381 384 271 187 318 243 187 197 304 497 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$9.52 $8.47 $7.89 $7.91 $7.74 $7.97 $8.35 $8.43 $9.23 $10.42 $10.89 $10.98 $11.73 $12.33 $11.98 $12.08 $12.33 $12.59 $11.27 $9.81 % Change 0.5%-11.0%-6.8%0.3%-2.1%3.0%4.8%1.0%9.5%12.9%4.5%0.8%6.8%5.1%---0.8%2.1%2.1%6.0%4.5% San Marcos Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 8,227 8,245 8,200 8,126 8,126 8,126 8,126 7,981 7,971 7,961 8,183 8,183 8,202 8,203 8,211 8,203 8,203 8,203 8,146 8,106 Net Deliveries R 0 18 -45 -74 0 0 0 -145 -10 -10 222 0 19 1 ----8 0 0 46 8 Net Absorption T -263 -33 1 -108 8 57 138 25 -113 -25 166 -98 -16 272 ----40 41 -8 60 41 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.0%9.6%9.1%9.6%9.5%8.8%7.1%5.1%6.4%6.6%7.1%8.3%8.7%5.4%5.5%5.9%5.4%5.5%7.2%7.3% Vacant SF 740 792 746 780 772 715 577 407 510 525 581 679 714 443 452 484 443 451 588 592 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$9.73 $9.49 $8.92 $8.69 $8.98 $9.27 $9.45 $9.72 $9.16 $10.30 $11.57 $11.84 $12.01 $12.24 $11.96 $12.06 $12.24 $12.83 $11.59 $10.45 % Change 0.5%-2.5%-6.0%-2.6%3.3%3.2%1.9%2.9%-5.8%12.4%12.3%2.3%1.4%1.9%---0.8%1.5%4.8%6.0%3.5% Encinitas Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 Net Deliveries R -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -16 -13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0%7.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Vacant SF 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)---$15.00 $14.04 ---$22.08 ------------------------------------------$22.08 % Change -------6.4%--------------------------------------------------- Vista Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)T ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Deliveries R ------------------------------------------------------------ Net Absorption T ------------------------------------------------------------ Total Vacancy Rate T ------------------------------------------------------------ Vacant SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Costar Source: CoStar -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Absorption Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Square Feet (Bar)Net Delliveries Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad Industrial 21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Performance (City)Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 90 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 85 of 142 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$10.5 $9.4 $9.2 $8.9 $9.0 $9.2 $9.7 $10.0 $10.7 $11.1 $11.9 $12.2 $12.8 $13.0 $12.7 $12.7 $13.0 $13.2 $12.2 $10.9 Y/Y % Change ----10.6%-1.7%-3.3%0.4%2.5%5.0%4.0%6.8%3.5%7.3%2.3%4.9%1.6%---0.2%1.8%1.9%3.9%7.8% Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$11.8 $10.8 $10.6 $10.0 $9.4 $9.7 $9.8 $10.9 $12.3 $11.9 $12.7 $12.9 $14.1 $14.2 $14.6 $14.4 $14.2 $14.5 $13.1 $11.8 Y/Y % Change ----9.0%-1.3%-5.7%-6.2%3.3%0.9%11.6%12.6%-3.7%6.9%1.7%8.9%1.3%----1.8%-0.8%2.0%2.9%7.3% Oceanside Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$9.5 $8.5 $7.9 $7.9 $7.7 $8.0 $8.4 $8.4 $9.2 $10.4 $10.9 $11.0 $11.7 $12.3 $12.0 $12.1 $12.3 $12.6 $11.3 $9.8 Y/Y % Change ----11.0%-6.8%0.3%-2.1%3.0%4.8%1.0%9.5%12.9%4.5%0.8%6.8%5.1%---0.8%2.1%2.1%6.0%9.3% San Marcos Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$9.7 $9.5 $8.9 $8.7 $9.0 $9.3 $9.5 $9.7 $9.2 $10.3 $11.6 $11.8 $12.0 $12.2 $12.0 $12.1 $12.2 $12.8 $11.6 $10.5 Y/Y % Change ----2.5%-6.0%-2.6%3.3%3.2%1.9%2.9%-5.8%12.4%12.3%2.3%1.4%1.9%---0.8%1.5%4.8%6.0%7.1% Encinitas Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)---$15.0 $14.0 ---$22.1 ------------------------------------------$22.1 Y/Y % Change -------6.4%--------------------------------------------------- Vista Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Village Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------$10.0 ------------------------------------------$10.0 Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$18.0 $14.4 $15.1 $15.4 $15.2 $16.5 $17.9 $21.0 $13.9 $19.8 $17.5 $22.2 $17.4 $22.5 $20.4 $12.7 $22.5 $22.5 $19.9 $18.4 Y/Y % Change ----20.0%4.8%2.3%-1.4%8.5%8.2%17.3%-33.6%42.1%-11.4%26.6%-21.5%29.3%----37.5%76.9%0.0%10.1%7.9% Industrial Corridor Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)$12.3 $11.3 $11.2 $10.9 $10.3 $10.3 $9.8 $12.4 $12.8 $12.6 $13.2 $13.7 $14.6 $14.8 $14.7 $14.8 $14.8 $16.3 $13.8 $12.4 Y/Y % Change ----7.9%-1.3%-2.2%-5.8%-0.2%-4.4%26.1%3.1%-1.4%4.6%3.7%6.9%1.2%---0.2%0.0%10.6%3.0%6.2% Source: Costar $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2008 2012 2016 2020 Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF) Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Industrial 21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 91 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 86 of 142A. / " I I ---• -----------------------------I EXHIBIT V-2 OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS SELECT SUBMARKETS 2008 THROUGH 2021 Annual Quarterly Annual Average Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County Vacancy 7.4%9.6%9.2%9.0%8.2%7.7%6.0%4.7%4.1%4.4%5.9%6.8%5.5%2.7%4.7%4.2%2.7%2.7%5.1%5.6% Y/Y % Change ---29.7%-4.2%-2.2%-8.9%-6.1%-22.1%-21.7%-12.8%7.3%34.1%15.3%-19.1%-50.9%----10.6%-35.7%0.0%-8.0%-21.4% Carlsbad Vacancy 10.4%11.1%9.1%11.3%10.5%9.0%8.1%9.7%7.5%7.4%16.3%12.9%10.0%2.1%10.0%7.7%2.1%2.1%9.7%9.4% Y/Y % Change ---6.7%-18.0%24.2%-7.1%-14.3%-10.0%19.8%-22.7%-1.3%120.3%-20.9%-22.5%-79.0%----23.0%-72.7%0.0%-22.5%-28.6% Oceanside Vacancy 10.7%16.2%16.7%14.4%13.1%12.5%9.6%4.3%2.4%3.3%4.2%4.1%2.9%2.0%3.4%2.6%2.0%2.1%3.3%5.8% Y/Y % Change ---51.4%3.1%-13.8%-9.0%-4.6%-23.2%-55.2%-44.2%37.5%27.3%-2.4%-29.3%-31.0%----23.5%-23.1%5.0%-3.6%-32.6% San Marcos Vacancy 9.0%9.6%9.1%9.6%9.5%8.8%7.1%5.1%6.4%6.6%7.1%8.3%8.7%5.4%5.5%5.9%5.4%5.5%7.2%7.3% Y/Y % Change ---6.7%-5.2%5.5%-1.0%-7.4%-19.3%-28.2%25.5%3.1%7.6%16.9%4.8%-37.9%---7.3%-8.5%1.9%-3.3%-10.9% Encinitas Vacancy 0.0%7.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Y/Y % Change -------100.0%--------------------------------------------------- Vista Vacancy ------------------------------------------------------------ Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ Village Vacancy 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.2%9.2%9.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%3.2% Y/Y % Change ---------------0.0%0.0%-100.0%----------100.0%------------------------ Olde Carlsbad Vacancy 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Y/Y % Change ------------------------------------------------------------ South Beach Vacancy 0.9%2.1%1.4%2.1%1.0%0.0%0.9%2.4%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.6%2.6%1.6%3.8%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.1%1.0% Y/Y % Change ---133.3%-33.3%50.0%-52.4%-100.0%---166.7%-100.0%-------33.3%333.3%-38.5%----57.9%0.0%0.0%----5.3% Industrial Corridor Vacancy 11.8%11.9%9.4%7.5%8.1%7.1%5.0%6.6%7.5%7.8%15.3%9.4%9.8%1.9%9.2%8.5%1.9%1.8%8.8%7.9% Y/Y % Change ---0.8%-21.0%-20.2%8.0%-12.3%-29.6%32.0%13.6%4.0%96.2%-38.6%4.3%-80.6%----7.6%-77.6%-5.3%-24.0%-24.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Industrial 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2008 2012 2016 2020Vacancy Rate (%)Historical Vacancy (%) Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor 21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 92 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 87 of 142---., ..... ., ..... -------., ..... ---..... --------------' ----------~ ., ' ----------' -------' --_, --------' ----_.....,,.. ----' ---' ~ _, ' -'----' --'!::a ----------,. ----' --------------' ----,.__ -.. ~ --------------------I I I I I I I I EXHIBIT II-2OFFICE DEMANDSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020 THROUGH 2029I. Demand from Net New Jobs (Key Industry Segments)Office Area Per Job (Net) (4)Annual New Jobs (000s) (1)% Office Perm. Pre- Post-Potential Net New Office Demand - Square Feet (000s)Key Industry Segments2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029Using (2)%WFH (3)COVID-19 COVID-19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029CorporateFinance and insurance-0.6 -1.8 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 90.0%225 248 -96 -283 43 32 -39 -20 69 139 152 161Real estate and rental and leasing-1.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 89.0%250 275 -289 112 207 33 -7 -12 21 50 52 50Management of companies and enterprises -0.3 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 92.0%305 336 -73 121 144 -35 -50 -44 -35 -24 -24 -25Legal services-0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0%335 369 -71 33 -16 -114 -88 -68 -55 -48 -42 -40Acct, tax prep, and payroll services-1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 88.0%255 281 -214 30 27 -40 -28 -19 -14 -11 -8 -8Administrative and support services-5.3 0.6 0.7 -0.1 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 92.0%285 314 -1,060 113 133 -26 153 368 339 276 278 274Mgmt, scientific, and technical consulting services-0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 90.0%305 336 -73 -45 121 -23 9 36 52 58 64 60Totals:-9.9 0.1 3.5 -0.7 -0.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.789.9%15.0% 280 10.0%-1,877 81 659 -173 -51 241 378 441 471 473TechnologyArchitectural; engineering; and related services 0.3 2.2 0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 83.0%175 193 34 229 75 -67 -46 -28 -18 -13 -8 -9Computer systems design and related services 0.1 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 88.0%155 171 12 -16 54 -15 2 17 25 28 31 29Software publishers0.30.00.20.10.10.10.00.00.00.087.0% 16518229-421151063320Data processing; hosting and related services0.10.60.30.10.10.10.10.10.10.186.0% 205226 9723618151211121111Specialized design services-0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.0%300 330 -34 5 9 -8 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 0Other professional; scientific; and technical servi-0.9-0.20.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.087.0% 300330-171-4517-20-10-32465Other information services-0.20.20.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.286.0% 300330-34465636353434353535Totals:-0.5 2.6 2.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.586.4%20.0% 229 10.0%-156 286 269 -41 2 35 56 68 77 71MediaAdvertising; public relations; and related services-0.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.0%315 347 -147 -50 14 -23 -17 -13 -10 -9 -8 -7Newspaper; periodical; book; and directory pub 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 88.0%365 402 -10 -25 -21 -34 -32 -30 -27 -23 -21 -18Motion picture and sound recording industries-1.0-0.20.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.087.0% 375413-230-3939320-100-1Broadcasting (except internet)-0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 86.0%325 358 -36 1 12 -10 -12 -14 -14 -13 -12 -12Telecommunications-0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0%365 402 -101 -50 -6 -40 -45 -49 -48 -43 -40 -39Promoters of performing arts; sports; and similar-0.10.00.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.087.0% 375413-2443624211610765Agents and mgrs for artists; athletes; entertainers0.00.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.00.086.0% 32535861115111086444Totals:-2.4 -0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.386.4%18.0% 349 10.0%-541 -147 88 -69 -74 -83 -84 -78 -72 -69FlexScientific research and development services 0.7 3.7 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.0%275 303 80 431 183 -81 -46 -18 -1 7 13 11Warehousing and storage-0.20.10.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.150.0% 400440-34183722161617171616Religious; grantmaking; civic; prof; and similar o-3.3 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 50.0%225 248 -314 58 147 49 32 40 -14 -20 -17 -15Totals:-2.8 4.4 3.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.050.0%5.0% 300 10.0%-268 508 367 -10 2 39 3 3 12 12Total Net New Office Demand: -2,842 727 1,383 -293 -122 232 353 434 488 4881,295 -224 -48 315 437 512 560 556(1) Source: Moody's Economy (1/25/2022)(2)(3) Per TCG projection(4) Pre-COVID19 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Workplace Standards Benchmark, ULI, and Cushman & Wakefield; post-COVID19 office area per job assumed to be 10% larger due to the effects of de-densification and social distancing21690.00 Office Demand: OfficeDemand.ModelTHE CONCORD GROUP93DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 88 of 142---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXHIBIT II-2OFFICE DEMANDSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020 THROUGH 2029II. Demand from Turnover, Obsolescence, and RedevelopmentPercent Office Current AnnualTotal Employment (000s) (1)OfficeArea (Net)Office Obsol.Potential Office Demand - Square Feet (000s)Key Industry Segments2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029Using (2)Per Job (3)Pool (ths) Rate 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029Finance and insurance45.8 43.9 44.2 44.4 44.2 44.0 44.5 45.4 46.4 47.4 90.0% 248 10,19576 74 77 77 76 76 77 78 78 78Real estate and rental and leasing28.5 29.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.4 89.0% 275 6,96850 53 54 53 52 52 52 53 53 53Management of companies and enterprises 23.5 24.1 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6 92.0% 336 7,25454 55 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 54Legal services12.8 12.9 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 88.0% 369 4,14831 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 31 31Accounting; tax preparation; bookkeeping; and p8.1 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 88.0% 281 2,01013 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15Administrative and support services77.7 78.3 78.9 78.8 79.6 81.4 83.1 84.5 85.8 87.2 92.0% 314 22,411160 169 169 168 169 171 171 170 170 170Management; scientific; and technical consulting 22.7 22.5 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.3 90.0% 336 6,86151 51 52 51 52 52 52 52 52 52Architectural; engineering; and related services 24.2 26.4 27.1 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 83.0% 193 3,86329 31 30 28 29 29 29 29 29 29Computer systems design and related services 25.6 25.4 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.2 88.0% 171 3,83729 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29Software publishers5.55.45.65.85.95.96.06.06.06.087.0%182866 7677777776Data processing; hosting and related services2.83.43.63.83.94.04.14.24.34.486.0%226542 4544444444Specialized design services2.02.02.02.02.01.91.91.91.91.988.0%330566 4444444444Other professional; scientific; and technical servi 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 87.0% 330 2,06714 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16Other information services1.82.12.42.62.83.03.13.33.53.786.0%330521 4444444444Advertising; public relations; and related services3.43.23.33.13.13.02.92.92.82.883.0%347991 6787777777Newspaper; periodical; book; and directory pub1.71.61.51.41.21.11.00.90.80.788.0%402607 4444444444Motion picture and sound recording industries1.21.01.21.21.21.21.21.21.21.287.0%413428 1343333333Broadcasting (except internet) 2.72.72.72.72.62.52.52.42.42.386.0%358817 6666666666Telecommunications 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 88.0% 402 2,267 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17Promoters of performing arts; sports; and similar0.50.60.70.80.91.01.01.01.11.187.0%413194 1122222211Agents and managers for artists; athletes; enterta0.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.586.0%35862 1111111000Scientific research and development services 36.3 40.0 41.5 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6 50.0% 303 5,493 42 44 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41Warehousing and storage2.22.32.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.250.0%440475 3444444444Religious; grantmaking; civic; professional; and s18.9 19.5 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.6 50.0% 248 2,34215 18 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 17Total Key Industries362 368 377 376 375 377 379 381 384 387 83.1%31685,7870.75%622 649 654 641 642 645 646 647 647 647Projected SD County Demand (000s):-2,219 1,376 2,037 348 520 877 999 1,081 1,135 1,135Carlsbad Capture: 17%OMA Demand (000s):-377 234 346 59 88 149 170 184 193 19310Y Cumulative County Demand: 7,29010Y Average Annual County Demand: 729Corporate Segment-1,442 531 1,113 274 397 692 830 893 923 92510Y Cumulative Demand:5,13610Y Average Annual Demand:51470%Technology-65 380 363 51 94 127 149 161 169 16410Y Cumulative Demand:1,59110Y Average Annual Demand:15922%Media -505 -108 129 -29 -35 -44 -44 -38 -32 -2910Y Cumulative Demand:-73410Y Average Annual Demand:-73-10%Flex Segment -208 574 432 52 64 101 65 66 75 7510Y Cumulative Demand:1,29610Y Average Annual Demand:13018%(1) Source: Moody's Economy (1/25/2022)(2)(3) Per TCG projection(4) Pre-COVID19 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Workplace Standards Benchmark, ULI, and Cushman & Wakefield; post-COVID19 office area per job assumed to be 10% larger due to the effects of de-densification and social distancing21690.00 Office Demand: OfficeDemand.ModelTHE CONCORD GROUP94DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 89 of 142---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXHIBIT II-3OFFICE DEMAND - SUBMARKET CAPTURE SCENARIOSNORTH COUNTY2021 THROUGH 2030Inputs and Assumptions:Average Annual Net Office Demand (10Y):728,998 SFNorth CountyCapture Metrics:Carlsbad Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas Del MarNorth CountyCurrent Households ('21) 44,107 37,935 5,549 34,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,160Share of North County10.5% 9.1% 1.3% 8.1% 3.9% 15.7% 13.7% 4.9% 1.4% 100.0%Projected HH Growth ('21-'26)21626911310243392646972,465Share of North County8.8% 10.9% 0.4% 12.6% 1.0% 13.8% 10.7% 2.8% 0.3% 100.0%Class A Office Inventory RBA (000s)2,244552124321632562740011,068Share of North County20.3% 0.5% 1.9% 3.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%Recent Housing Growth (2011-'21)2,3212,1901013,9991503,1101,7797335624,862Share of North County9.3% 8.8% 0.4% 16.1% 0.6% 12.5% 7.2% 2.9% 0.2% 100.0%Employment ('21)80,85846,0149,54335,59928,09147,93367,74827,1628,651475,097Share of North County17.0% 9.7% 2.0% 7.5% 5.9% 10.1% 14.3% 5.7% 1.8% 100.0%Future Apartment Supply - CoStar1324000184265577684140024,655Share of North County0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0%Future Office Supply - CoStar50,000054,845 1,451,0620250,749116,61420,1770 15,656,351Share of North County0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 9.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0%Imputed CaptureMaximum Implied 20.3% 10.9% 2.0% 16.1% 5.9% 15.7% 14.3% 5.7% 1.8% 100.0%Average9.5%5.8%0.9%8.3%2.0%8.3%7.4%2.4%0.5%100.0%TCG Concluded Capture17.0% 6.0% 1.0% 14.0% 4.0% 13.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 100.0%Annual Net SF Demanded 123,930 43,740 7,290 102,060 29,160 94,770 87,480 29,160 7,290 728,998Sources: ESRI, US Census (American Factfinder & Center for Economic Studies), CoStar21690.00 Office Demand: Office-CaptureTHE CONCORD GROUP95DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 90 of 142 EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL CARLSBAD 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 % North County 22.6%22.6%22.0%21.7% Net Completions North County 0 268 227 471 Carlsbad 0 102 98 151 % North County ---37.3%33.5%28.9% Occupancy Rate North County 88.7%88.8%88.7%87.3% Carlsbad 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (102)238 304 418 Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 % North County (75.5%)29.8%32.6%52.0% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8 Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 vs. North County (13.7%)(11.9%)(10.4%)(9.6%) Office Class A Inventory (SF,000s) North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 Carlsbad 2,244 2,127 1,930 1,825 % North County 20.3%19.9%18.8%18.5% Net Completions North County 0 207 147 301 Carlsbad 0 81 58 68 % North County ---43.8%34.4%27.6% Occupancy Rate North County 87.2%87.1%88.0%86.2% Carlsbad 83.6%83.3%80.3%76.1% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (144)187 151 292 Carlsbad (4)97 66 67 % North County 3.1%16.7%24.2%21.3% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4 Carlsbad $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 $31.4 vs. North County (23.1%)(22.3%)(20.1%)(17.9%) Retail Inventory (SF,000s) North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943 Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 % North County 11.2%11.1%10.8%10.5% Net Completions North County 29 139 148 216 Carlsbad 6 44 69 64 % North County 19.2%26.4%58.7%46.4% Occupancy Rate North County 94.2%95.3%95.1%94.9% Carlsbad 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 167 (13)164 134 Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 % North County 1.3%32.5%31.7%18.3% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 vs. North County 76.7%59.8%51.2%46.0% Source: CoStar 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class A) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Covid Impact: Retail and Office Occupancy and Absorption decreased in 2020, 2.Class A Office completions peaked at 2006 & 2007 3. Carlsbads Overall Office Rents are lower than North County Average4. Carlsbad Retail Rents are 60% higher than the average retail rents in North County (5-Yrs) 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Carlsbad Page 1 of 9 The Concord Group96 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 91 of 142................. ----------------------------· EJ -----~-------_-_-c,',,-._ __________ ___,.-~---_--_-_-_--_-_-.--\ • .-----------1 ,,,,,,' ........................ ,,,,,,,,' ---------........ l----------------------------------------:11• .... _______ _ D ..... ,, ...................... ____________________________________________________________ _ +---------------------! ------------ -------...................... EJ EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL OCEANSIDE 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 Oceanside 1,961 1,855 1,805 1,718 % North County 5.8%5.6%5.5%5.3% Net Completions North County 0 268 227 471 Oceanside 0 36 27 48 % North County ---3.2%8.4%11.5% Occupancy Rate North County 88.7%88.8%88.7%87.3% Oceanside 93.7%92.4%89.7%87.4% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (102)238 304 418 Oceanside (20)52 45 49 % North County 19.3%45.7%17.1%91.1% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8 Oceanside $26.8 $25.3 $24.0 $25.1 vs. North County (29.3%)(28.6%)(25.9%)(20.5%) Office Class A Inventory (SF,000s) North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 Oceanside 256 205 188 164 % North County 2.3%1.9%1.8%1.6% Net Completions North County 0 207 147 301 Oceanside 0 17 9 17 % North County ---4.7%2.3%5.9% Occupancy Rate North County 87.2%87.1%88.0%86.2% Oceanside 97.2%90.5%86.1%--- Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (144)187 151 292 Oceanside 0 25 14 16 % North County 0.0%3.0%6.1%5.8% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4 Oceanside $32.2 $29.8 $28.9 $30.0 vs. North County (27.2%)(29.3%)(26.6%)(21.2%) Retail Inventory (SF,000s) North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943 Oceanside 2,396 2385 2379 2365 % North County 4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7% Net Completions North County 29 139 148 216 Oceanside 2 5 3 7 % North County 5.4%3.3%0.2%3.0% Occupancy Rate North County 94.2%95.3%95.1%94.9% Oceanside 84.7%88.7%89.0%88.8% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 167 (13)164 134 Oceanside (7)(24)(6)(6) % North County (4.2%)0.8%1.9%(2.4%) Overall Rents (NNN) North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Oceanside $24.8 $21 $20 $21 vs. North County (0.9%)(6.5%)(5.1%)(3.7%) Source: CoStar 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class A) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Overall Office, Class A Office and Retail rents in Ocreanside are lower than the North County Average. 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Oceanside Page 2 of 9 The Concord Group97 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 92 of 142-----------------------·-.--c:-__ -_-__ -__ -_-: __ ::c __ ;c._c;:-_ ------------------j -------------_-_-----~ t-------1---------------------------------_J-.......... -...... -...... ____ _ ______ 17:---------------------~-c::-:.--_-_-_________ .J ■ i n i _ □------H----------------n ------:- ,----------------------■------'',,,,,------~----------------............... ,, ...... "' ............ I ' ' ' ' ' ' ' , ■ ,,,, ........... .. ....... ________ _ --,, ,, f------h M; ■----------~-==='-'•----------__ -_-_,~. !--:_: ____________ __ --~-a..----------.................... ... II -I / I -I ' ' ' ' I - __ .. ---------------- ■ ---.......... --- I I ■ - --- - EJ D EJ EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL ENCINITAS 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 Encinitas 1,768 1,711 1,687 1,668 % North County 5.2%5.1%5.2%5.2% Net Completions North County 0 268 227 471 Encinitas 0 17 13 14 % North County ---33.5%25.8%17.5% Occupancy Rate North County 88.7%88.8%88.7%87.3% Encinitas 94.4%95.5%95.7%94.7% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (102)238 304 418 Encinitas (5)7 12 16 % North County 5.2%(1.8%)(6.5%)(42.4%) Overall Rents (NNN) North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8 Encinitas $42.3 $40.5 $37.2 $35.5 vs. North County 11.6%14.3%14.5%11.8% Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available) Inventory (SF,000s) North County 18,248 18,065 17,802 17,543 Encinitas 1,483 1,426 1,402 1,385 % North County 8.1%7.9%7.9%7.9% Net Completions North County 0 75 90 176 Encinitas 0 18 13 13 % North County ---41.3%26.3%18.2% Occupancy Rate North County 88.1%88.4%87.9%86.5% Encinitas 94.2%94.9%95.3%94.2% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 18 59 142 133 Encinitas 0 8 11 15 % North County 0.0%35.0%16.6%15.7% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $34.6 $31.9 $30.1 $29.6 Encinitas $42.5 $40.4 $37.2 $35.6 vs. North County 22.6%26.8%23.7%20.0% Retail Inventory (SF,000s) North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943 Encinitas 5,418 5419 5462 5534 % North County 10.6%10.7%10.8%11.1% Net Completions North County 29 139 148 216 Encinitas 2 0 (34)(15) % North County 5.4%0.6%13.1%18.5% Occupancy Rate North County 94.2%95.3%95.1%94.9% Encinitas 97.2%97.6%97.5%96.9% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 167 (13)164 134 Encinitas 7 (6)(16)(18) % North County 4.1%(6.1%)(7.0%)7.2% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Encinitas $39.7 $30 $30 $29 vs. North County 58.5%32.2%39.2%31.1% Source: CoStar 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class B) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Office and Retail Occupany are relatively stable during the Pandemic2. Overall and Class A Office and Retail rents are higher than the North County Average Rents 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Encinitas Page 3 of 9 The Concord Group 98 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 93 of 142EJ ~ ............... .. ', ■ EJ ■ ................ __________ .. _ .. -............................. ____________ ...... .. .................. ____ _ \ ........ ______________ _ -----EJ EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL SAN MARCOS 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 San Marcos 1,727 1,723 1,678 1,614 % North County 5.1%5.2%5.1%5.0% Net Completions North County 0 268 227 471 San Marcos 0 15 18 29 % North County ---13.8%20.3%15.2% Occupancy Rate North County 88.7%88.8%88.7%87.3% San Marcos 91.8%92.5%90.1%88.4% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (102)238 304 418 San Marcos 14 8 27 24 % North County (13.6%)(14.7%)(18.2%)17.1% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8 San Marcos $27.5 $27.4 $26.9 $27.4 vs. North County (27.5%)(22.6%)(16.6%)(13.1%) Office Class A Inventory (SF,000s) North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 San Marcos 432 432 432 402 % North County 3.9%4.1%4.2%4.1% Net Completions North County 0 207 147 301 San Marcos 0 0 7 11 % North County ---0.0%8.0%6.0% Occupancy Rate North County 87.2%87.1%88.0%86.2% San Marcos 92.1%92.8%91.2%86.8% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (144)187 151 292 San Marcos 0 (2)13 10 % North County 0.0%(0.8%)10.1%7.2% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4 San Marcos $33.5 $33.3 $32.2 $32.4 vs. North County (24.3%)(21.1%)(18.1%)(15.1%) Retail Inventory (SF,000s) North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943 San Marcos 4,676 4670 4638 4647 % North County 9.1%9.2%9.2%9.3% Net Completions North County 29 139 148 216 San Marcos 2 9 11 10 % North County 6.1%4.8%(2.0%)(14.9%) Occupancy Rate North County 94.2%95.3%95.1%94.9% San Marcos 90.1%92.1%92.7%93.0% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 167 (13)164 134 San Marcos 39 (42)(4)(13) % North County 23.3%(15.8%)(3.5%)43.6% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 San Marcos $20.0 $16 $17 $19 vs. North County (20.1%)(30.4%)(21.0%)(13.5%) Source: CoStar 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class A) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. San Marcos Officeand Retail rents are lower than the North County Average 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: San Marcos Page 4 of 9 The Concord Group99 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 94 of 142' ' ' ' ..................... ,, _____________ _ ,,, \ ·-............... , .. ---------...... D D D -----------· EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL VISTA 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078 Vista 1,773 1,773 1,765 1,747 % North County 5.2%5.3%5.4%5.5% Net Completions North County 0 268 227 471 Vista 0 2 2 12 % North County ---2.5%1.4%2.0% Occupancy Rate North County 88.7%88.8%88.7%87.3% Vista 83.0%85.4%84.8%84.9% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (102)238 304 418 Vista 0 (12)(0)(2) % North County 0.0%(12.1%)1.6%(43.3%) Overall Rents (NNN) North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8 Vista $27.2 $23.2 $22.7 $23.6 vs. North County (28.2%)(34.5%)(29.7%)(25.2%) Office Class A Inventory (SF,000s) North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855 Vista 55 55 55 55 % North County 0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6% Net Completions North County 0 207 147 301 Vista 0 0 0 0 % North County ---0.0%0.0%0.0% Occupancy Rate North County 87.2%87.1%88.0%86.2% Vista 87.6%82.9%83.8%85.5% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County (144)187 151 292 Vista 0 0 (0)(0) % North County 0.0%1.1%0.1%(0.0%) Overall Rents (NNN) North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4 Vista $38.1 $36.4 $34.5 $34.4 vs. North County (13.9%)(13.8%)(12.7%)(10.0%) Retail Inventory (SF,000s) North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943 Vista 5,256 5240 5246 5219 % North County 10.3%10.3%10.4%10.5% Net Completions North County 29 139 148 216 Vista 6 (3)(0)16 % North County 21.4%(1.9%)0.9%4.5% Occupancy Rate North County 94.2%95.3%95.1%94.9% Vista 92.8%94.7%93.8%94.1% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) North County 167 (13)164 134 Vista (10)(14)1 9 % North County (6.0%)(2.0%)0.8%65.6% Overall Rents (NNN) North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22 Vista $18.9 $18 $17 $18 vs. North County (24.6%)(20.9%)(20.8%)(20.0%) Source: CoStar 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class A) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Overall Officeoccupany and deliveries have decreased over the years2. Overall and Class A Office and retail Rents are lower than the average rents in North County 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Vista Page 5 of 9 The Concord Group100 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 95 of 142.............. ----------..... .................. __________________ _ ,,,, I ., ____ - '. r ~--------------------------_(_ _____________________________ _:,,------------------------71/ \ -l-------------------------------~\,~\_\ ______ _,-1--------------------,/, ~\,~\-,------------------------ \\ ------\ \\ L ------------------------------------';,,,----,,/' \ I \~\ , '\J ,/ -l--------------------------------1.--------il',, '\ ,,,, 1-------------------------------~---1 :l---------;I'' r - ,,,' -------------.. -1-----~------.,.. .. .. ..... .. .. .,.,.. .. .. ...... -----------..... __________ _ ,"-...... .,,, __ _, ' ' ' ' - ■ ,,,. ..... ----------..... n _1,,r·------- --- ---.J J / ...... .. ...... , ... ...... ____________ _ D D D EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL OLDE CARLSBAD 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 Olde Carlsbad 160 160 160 160 % Carlsbad 2.1%2.1%2.2%2.3% Net Completions North County 0 102 98 151 Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 2 % North County ---0.0%0.0%0.3% Occupancy Rate North County 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% Olde Carlsbad 96.5%97.6%95.4%91.2% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 Olde Carlsbad 4 (1)1 1 % Carlsbad 5.8%9.7%6.4%8.0% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 Olde Carlsbad $32.5 $34.7 $29.0 $29.8 vs. Carlsbad (0.6%)11.4%(1.6%)3.4% Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available) Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791 Olde Carlsbad 81 81 81 81 % Carlsbad 1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7% Net Completions North County 0 21 41 83 Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 2 % North County ---0.0%0.0%0.5% Occupancy Rate North County 87.6%84.3%84.5%82.8% Olde Carlsbad 95.7%97.6%93.6%86.6% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 66 59 62 75 Olde Carlsbad 4 (1)0 1 % Carlsbad 6.6%(40.8%)(16.8%)(11.1%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5 Olde Carlsbad $30.5 $30.5 $26.1 $28.5 vs. Carlsbad (5.1%)1.4%(4.8%)6.1% Retail Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 Olde Carlsbad 1,629 1629 1629 1629 % Carlsbad 28.6%29.0%30.0%31.1% Net Completions North County 6 44 69 64 Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 0 % North County 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Occupancy Rate North County 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% Olde Carlsbad 89.0%95.1%97.1%97.7% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 Olde Carlsbad 0 (34)(15)(11) % Carlsbad 0.0%11.1%15.8%(7.6%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 Olde Carlsbad ---$39 $27 $27 vs. Carlsbad ---3.4%(12.4%)(14.9%) Source: CoStar 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class B) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. No retail and class A office deliveries in last 10 yrs2. High overall and class B office occupancy 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Olde Carlsbad Page 6 of 9 The Concord Group 101 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 96 of 142~L======-=--=--=--=---=---=---=----=-~-r1_c=---=---=--=-----r/-------~----------------------L------------------------7 ,, ,/ --------------"7. ------~------EJ ----------............. ... D --------------------------------...................... _ ------------------------------------------------------------------------\ ' \[ I===============================---~----~=============================7·· 'r,_ I~ \ D ----------------------- EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL SOUTH BEACH 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 South Beach 140 140 140 131 % Carlsbad 1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9% Net Completions North County 0 102 98 151 South Beach 0 0 0 5 % North County ---0.0%0.0%4.6% Occupancy Rate North County 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% South Beach 98.2%90.1%90.0%88.9% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 South Beach 1 2 2 5 % Carlsbad 1.5%(16.0%)(4.9%)(1.4%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 South Beach $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 $29.7 vs. Carlsbad 0.9%26.6%11.7%5.0% Office Class B Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791 South Beach 140 140 140 131 % Carlsbad 2.8%2.8%2.9%2.7% Net Completions North County 0 21 41 83 South Beach 0 0 0 5 % North County ---0.0%0.0%5.7% Occupancy Rate North County 87.6%84.3%84.5%82.8% South Beach 98.2%90.1%90.0%88.9% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 66 59 62 75 South Beach 1 2 2 5 % Carlsbad 1.7%22.1%14.2%14.7% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5 South Beach $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 $29.7 vs. Carlsbad 2.6%29.1%16.6%10.2% Retail Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 South Beach 327 302 278 271 % Carlsbad 5.7%5.4%5.1%5.1% Net Completions North County 6 44 69 64 South Beach 0 14 7 5 % North County 0.0%16.1%8.1%8.7% Occupancy Rate North County 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% South Beach 97.1%96.7%97.7%97.7% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 South Beach (3)13 7 5 % Carlsbad (131.3%)12.9%(6.5%)6.7% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 South Beach ---$29 $32 $32 vs. Carlsbad ---(19.3%)(0.6%)(1.0%) Source: CoStar 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class B) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Office rents are slightly higher than Carlsbad average.Retail rents are lower compare to Carlsbad average. 2. No Class A Office Available in this Market.3. High Office Occupany Rate 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: South Beach Page 7 of 9 The Concord Group102 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 97 of 142-- \ \ \ --------, ---------- - / \ \ __________________ ........ -----------------------___ .... , - ', ' ' ' ' ,,,------~ • ...... _.. .. .. .... ~ ........................... ---~-,._-----------:-·--·:_·_· __ _.-,°"-._,;:,,---f:'--------I -- ........ ------ - ----........... D D D EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 IC 3,475 3,466 3,446 3,421 % Carlsbad 45.2%46.0%48.1%49.2% Net Completions North County 0 102 98 151 IC 0 10 5 27 % North County ---5.3%3.5%18.6% Occupancy Rate North County 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% IC 83.9%79.2%80.4%79.3% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 IC 73 19 17 25 % Carlsbad 95.0%46.6%56.1%(32.3%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 IC $32.9 $31.1 $29.3 $28.9 vs. Carlsbad 0.6%(0.2%)0.9%0.8% Office Class A Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 2,244 2,127 1,930 1,825 IC 1,306 1,296 1,277 1,254 % Carlsbad 58.2%61.2%67.0%69.6% Net Completions North County 0 81 58 68 IC 0 10 5 24 % North County ---10.6%7.1%37.3% Occupancy Rate North County 83.6%83.3%80.3%76.1% IC 80.0%78.7%77.9%75.8% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad (4)97 66 67 IC (4)21 10 22 % Carlsbad 87.3%68.2%(2.0%)6.5% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 $31.4 IC $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 $31.9 vs. Carlsbad 1.0%0.5%1.5%1.7% Retail Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 IC 789 789 787 774 % Carlsbad 13.8%14.0%14.5%14.7% Net Completions North County 6 44 69 64 IC 0 0 1 5 % North County 0.0%0.0%2.1%13.5% Occupancy Rate North County 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% IC 97.2%97.9%97.2%96.9% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 IC (1)(0)3 4 % Carlsbad (45.3%)5.7%43.8%45.5% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 IC $42.0 $43 $35 $34 vs. Carlsbad (5.1%)18.0%6.7%3.9% Source: CoStar 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class A) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. Around 60% of Class A office Inventory are located in Industrial Core2. Office Rent level similar to Carlsbad average3. The Pandemic has very limited impact on office and retial occupany 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: IC Page 8 of 9 The Concord Group103 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 98 of 142EJ \ \ ------............... _ ...... -----D ----------------------··-----------:,,- _____________ .. , ... ------- ------ ...... --------------------------------------______________________________________________ .. EJ EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL VILLAGE 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 Village 404 396 395 397 % Carlsbad 5.3%5.3%5.5%5.7% Net Completions North County 0 102 98 151 Village 0 4 1 0 % North County ---28.5%18.1%10.9% Occupancy Rate North County 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% Village 97.6%96.7%95.8%95.8% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 Village 3 5 0 1 % Carlsbad 3.7%(13.2%)(14.3%)(2.7%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 Village $33.7 $31.6 $28.5 $26.7 vs. Carlsbad 3.1%1.6%(2.1%)(7.4%) Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available) Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791 Village 243 235 229 226 % Carlsbad 4.8%4.6%4.7%4.7% Net Completions North County 0 21 41 83 Village 0 4 2 1 % North County ---38.0%23.6%14.7% Occupancy Rate North County 87.6%84.3%84.5%82.8% Village 97.5%97.0%95.9%96.2% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 66 59 62 75 Village 2 4 2 2 % Carlsbad 2.6%(269.2%)(138.8%)(94.4%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5 Village $35.9 $30.8 $28.2 $26.8 vs. Carlsbad 11.6%1.8%0.8%(2.5%) Retail Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 Village 737 716 708 699 % Carlsbad 12.9%12.7%13.0%13.3% Net Completions North County 6 44 69 64 Village 6 4 4 4 % North County 100.0%40.2%22.4%15.6% Occupancy Rate North County 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% Village 95.2%95.9%97.2%97.4% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 Village 16 (3)1 3 % Carlsbad 718.7%(6.0%)(4.4%)16.2% Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 Village $42.0 $35 $30 $27 vs. Carlsbad (5.1%)(2.4%)(9.8%)(15.6%) Source: CoStar 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office (Class B) Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. High Overall and Class A office occpancy rates2.No Class A Office available 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Village Page 9 of 9 The Concord Group 104 DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 99 of 142'\,.\, ,,, , , , , , / ,, ............................ .. __________________ ,,,,,,,, ----------.. , .............................. .. +-----------::=~-----·~-~--,-,----.,.-.. ___ --------------------__ --:_::.::: .. ;-----------------------------------------------------------------,,,,,,,---.... ---------------------...... ... .... -------- .,,., ...... ........ -"" ,' , ............ ----· EJ D D EXHIBIT II-4C HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL AVIARA 1999 THROUGH 2022 QTD Annual Average Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Office (Not Avilable) Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982 Aviara ------------ % Carlsbad ------------ Net Completions --- North County 0 102 98 151 Aviara ------------ % North County ------------ Occupancy Rate North County 86.6%84.4%83.8%81.6% Aviara ------------ Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 77 150 127 139 Aviara ------------ % Carlsbad ------------ Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7 Aviara ------------ vs. Carlsbad ------------ Retail Inventory (SF,000s) Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263 Aviara 147 147 147 147 % Carlsbad 2.6%2.6%2.7%2.8% Net Completions North County 6 44 69 64 Aviara 0 0 0 0 % North County 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Occupancy Rate North County 91.4%95.3%96.2%96.5% Aviara 98.0%95.7%94.7%95.7% Net Absorption (SF, 000s) Carlsbad 2 (26)37 40 Aviara (0)1 0 0 % Carlsbad (16.8%)(2.4%)(11.6%)(12.5%) Overall Rents (NNN) Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32 Aviara ---$47 $44 $44 vs. Carlsbad ---33.5%37.2%39.1% Source: CoStar 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Office Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022RBA (SF)Retail Absorption Deliveries Occupancy 1. High Overall and Class A office occpancy rates2.No Class A Office available 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Aviara Page 1 of 1 The Concord Group DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023Item #7 Page 100 of 142EJ ............ ------------ D Retail Opportunity Analysis 105DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 101 of 142 EXHIBIT III-1RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - SUMMARYPRIMARY MARKET AREAJANUARY 2022Cities within North CountyCarlsbad SubmarketsGeographyVillage Olde Carlsbad South BeachIndustrial Core/Kelly Ranch AviaraPoinsettiaCarlsbadOceansideVistaSan Marcos EncinitasNorth CountyDemographicsPopulation ('21)3,9618,9384,3322,5887,65712,135112,930188,686120,731102,48451,3961,215,352Households ('21)1,9253,5691,7791,0143,1164,73944,10765,98137,93534,04620,619419,160% Carlsbad4.4%8.1%4.0%2.3%7.1%10.7%--149.6%86.0%77.2%46.7%--% North County0.5%0.9%0.4%0.2%0.7%1.1%10.5%15.7%9.1%8.1%4.9%--Ann. Growth (#, '21-'26)13934155106281,0811,6971,3451,55234512,326% Carlsbad12.9%3.1%1.4%0.5%9.8%2.6%--% North County1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.9%0.2%8.8%13.8%10.9%12.6%2.8%--Over $100K HH Growth112814(39)22275172,0201,016546877,950Under $100K HH Growth1286144841564(323)3291,0062584,376Ann. Growth (%, '21-'26)6.4%0.9%0.8%0.5%3.2%0.6%2.3%2.4%3.3%4.2%1.6%2.8%Household Size ('21)2.062.502.442.552.462.562.562.863.183.012.492.90Consumer Spending Patterns ('20)Consumer Expenditures ($000)$66,040$177,425$109,885$68,015$238,762$294,469$2,592,205$2,551,752$1,370,582$1,315,929$1,323,438$21,328,924Per Capita$16,672$19,851$25,366$26,281$31,182$24,266$22,954$13,524$11,352$12,840$25,750$17,550Retail Sales ($000)$139,407$205,781$187,487$853,136$60,017$343,548$2,513,665$1,784,936$1,648,225$1,488,395$1,037,859$15,707,699Per Occupied Square Foot$201$142$591$1,112$412$740$482$878$337$354$197$326Spending Inflow/ (Leakage)$73,367$28,356$77,603$785,121($178,744)$49,079($78,541)($766,815)$277,643$172,466($285,578)($5,621,224)Retail Market Performance (2021 Q4)Rentable Building Area (SF)736,6161,629,415326,740788,973146,616475,2835,703,1922,396,3345,255,6834,676,0425,418,10851,123,475Annual Deliveries (SF)Last Four Quarters22,0000000022,0006,20003,5003,100105,320Five-Year Average6,117014,32300046,1134,8958,52913,6031,625178,626Ten-Year Average5,59507,161582020,06470,3032,8627,34311,5983,349241,299Annual Net Absorption (SF)Last Four Quarters74,8213,7956,410(6,052)(974)(1,880)(24,896)3,203(49,015)(148,200)55,671(157,029)Five-Year Average(383)(34,416)13,681907434(1,003)(25,901)(23,183)(17,573)(38,254)5,069(2,272)Ten-Year Average1,665(15,381)6,9252,85118118,78236,694(6,566)244(8,124)(18,056)156,447Vacancy Rate5.7%11.0%2.9%2.8%0.8%2.3%8.6%15.2%6.9%10.2%2.8%5.7%Vacant Stock (SF)41,709179,3989,43722,0771,10010,767491,146364,288361,854475,823154,1482,914,097Asking Rent (NNN)$42.00$39.00$24.00$42.00------$39.59$28.00$20.03$20.46$35.69$25.35Rent GrowthFive-Year Average9.5%----10.6%9.9%------3.3%5.0%4.0%11.2%1.7%3.7%Ten-Year Average14.0%9.1%---2.5%------3.5%7.4%3.3%-0.6%8.3%3.3%Source: ESRI; US Census; CoStar21690.00 Retail Trends: MktPerfPage 1 of 4THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 102 of 142 EXHIBIT III-1RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - INVENTORYPRIMARY MARKET AREA2008 THROUGH 2021Recent Inventory GrowthVillage Olde Carlsbad South BeachCore/Kelly RanchAviara PoinsettiaCarlsbadOceanside Vista San Marcos EncinitasNorth CountyCurrent Inventory736,6161,629,415326,740788,973146,616475,2835,703,1922,396,3345,255,6834,676,0425,418,10851,123,475New Deliveries Since 200867,806071,61448,2030193,585873,16974,995191,914-27,868-231,8602,360,530% of Current Inventory9.21%0.00%21.92%6.11%0.00%40.73%15.31%3.13%3.65%-0.60%-4.28%4.62%#DIV/0!Source: CoStar050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Retail RBA (SF)Retail - Net New Inventory Growth since 2008CarlsbadOceansideVistaSan MarcosEncinitas21690.00 Retail Trends: InvPage 2 of 4THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 103 of 142 ■ ■ EXHIBIT III-1RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - OCCUPANCY TRENDSPRIMARY MARKET AREA2009 THROUGH 2021AnnualAnnual AverageQtr.Market Factor20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020215-Yr10-Yr4Q21North CountyOcc. Rate (Total)93.5%93.0%93.6%94.2%94.5%95.1%95.2%95.3%96.2%95.9%95.9%94.5%94.0%95.3%95.1%94.0%Y/Y % Change----0.5%0.6%0.6%0.3%0.6%0.1%0.1%0.9%-0.3%0.0%-1.4%-1.9%CarlsbadOcc. Rate (Total)95.9%96.6%96.7%96.7%97.0%95.9%96.9%97.8%97.6%97.5%97.1%92.3%91.5%95.2%96.0%91.5%Y/Y % Change---0.7%0.1%0.0%0.3%-1.1%1.0%0.9%-0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-5.2%-5.6%OceansideOcc. Rate (Total)85.0%86.8%89.4%89.5%91.0%87.3%87.4%91.3%91.1%90.5%88.8%85.7%85.6%88.3%88.8%85.6%Y/Y % Change---1.8%2.6%0.1%1.5%-3.7%0.1%3.9%-0.2%-0.6%-1.7%-4.8%-3.2%VistaOcc. Rate (Total)94.7%91.7%93.0%92.6%91.8%92.7%92.9%94.5%95.5%96.0%95.3%94.1%93.1%94.8%93.9%93.1%Y/Y % Change----3.0%1.3%-0.4%-0.8%0.9%0.2%1.6%1.0%0.5%-0.7%-1.9%-2.2%San MarcosOcc. Rate (Total)92.6%91.0%92.8%93.9%91.2%92.4%93.5%94.3%96.4%91.7%90.9%92.3%89.2%92.1%92.6%89.2%Y/Y % Change----1.6%1.8%1.1%-2.7%1.2%1.1%0.8%2.1%-4.7%-0.8%0.6%-1.7%EncinitasOcc. Rate (Total)93.8%93.7%94.8%96.8%97.6%98.4%98.1%96.9%98.5%97.6%97.8%96.5%97.5%97.6%97.6%97.5%Y/Y % Change----0.1%1.1%2.0%0.8%0.8%-0.3%-1.2%1.6%-0.9%0.2%-1.1%-0.3%VillageOcc. Rate (Total)96.3%98.6%98.3%97.7%99.1%98.8%99.9%98.5%98.5%98.9%97.2%86.6%94.2%95.1%96.9%94.2%Y/Y % Change---2.3%-0.3%-0.6%1.4%-0.3%1.1%-1.4%0.0%0.4%-1.7%-12.3%-3.0%Olde CarlsbadOcc. Rate (Total)98.8%98.4%98.4%98.5%99.4%99.3%99.1%99.6%99.3%99.4%98.9%88.8%89.0%95.1%97.1%89.0%Y/Y % Change----0.4%0.0%0.1%0.9%-0.1%-0.2%0.5%-0.3%0.1%-0.5%-10.6%-9.9%South BeachOcc. Rate (Total)95.8%98.9%98.9%97.4%98.0%98.6%99.1%99.2%98.2%92.4%96.1%96.4%98.4%96.3%97.4%98.4%Y/Y % Change---3.1%0.0%-1.5%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.1%-1.0%-5.8%3.7%4.0%2.3%Industrial Core/Kelly RanchOcc. Rate (Total)95.8%98.9%98.9%97.4%98.0%98.6%99.1%99.2%98.2%92.4%96.1%96.4%98.4%96.3%97.4%98.4%Y/Y % Change---3.1%0.0%-1.5%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.1%-1.0%-5.8%3.7%4.0%2.3%AviaraOcc. Rate (Total)96.6%96.6%94.5%95.0%95.6%97.0%97.4%96.8%97.3%98.1%98.7%98.1%97.4%97.9%97.1%97.4%Y/Y % Change---0.0%-2.1%0.5%0.6%1.4%0.4%-0.6%0.5%0.8%0.6%0.0%-1.3%PoinsettiaOcc. Rate (Total)100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%94.3%100.0%100.0%99.8%100.0%100.0%100.0%99.2%98.8%99.6%99.2%98.8%Y/Y % Change---0.0%0.0%0.0%-5.7%5.7%0.0%-0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-1.2%Source: CoStar85%90%95%100%2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1Total Occupancy RateRetail OccupancyNorth CountyCarlsbadOceansideVistaSan MarcosEncinitas85%90%95%100%2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1Total Occupancy RateRetail OccupancyVillageOlde CarlsbadSouth BeachIndustrial Core/Kelly RanchAviaraPoinsettia21690.00 Retail Trends: OccPage 3 of 4THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 104 of 142' ----------------------------------------------------:-------~, ----------------------------------------------------'----____ , EXHIBIT III-1RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDSPRIMARY MARKET AREA2009 THROUGH 2021AnnualAnnual AverageQtr.Market Factor20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020215-Yr10-Yr4Q21North CountyRental Rate (NNN)$23.77$22.42$22.12$20.85$20.40$21.18$20.56$20.63$22.16$24.92$20.14$24.14$25.39$23.35$22.04$25.39Y/Y % Change----5.7%-1.3%-5.7%-2.2%3.8%-2.9%0.3%7.4%12.5%-19.2%19.9%5.2%CarlsbadRental Rate (NNN)$28.12$33.48$31.68$26.45$25.08$31.33$33.34$35.99$40.29$41.98$32.80$35.47$37.63$37.63$34.04$37.63Y/Y % Change---19.1%-5.4%-16.5%-5.2%24.9%6.4%7.9%11.9%4.2%-21.9%8.1%6.1%OceansideRental Rate (NNN)$21.58$20.72$20.76$19.10$18.73$18.92$20.60$21.00$22.89$20.63$18.71$20.38$29.48$22.42$21.04$29.48Y/Y % Change----4.0%0.2%-8.0%-1.9%1.0%8.9%1.9%9.0%-9.9%-9.3%8.9%44.7%VistaRental Rate (NNN)$19.59$17.32$16.44$16.33$15.88$16.45$16.64$16.52$17.69$15.98$17.21$17.21$20.62$17.74$17.05$20.62Y/Y % Change----11.6%-5.1%-0.7%-2.8%3.6%1.2%-0.7%7.1%-9.7%7.7%0.0%19.8%San MarcosRental Rate (NNN)$25.41$23.06$20.37$20.12$19.98$22.08$12.36$11.58$10.79$21.53$9.01$21.55$19.82$16.54$16.88$19.82Y/Y % Change----9.2%-11.7%-1.2%-0.7%10.5%-44.0%-6.3%-6.8%99.5%-58.2%139.2%-8.0%EncinitasRental Rate (NNN)$25.83$23.12$29.36$28.89$29.28$28.72$30.61$32.15$25.44$28.87$30.78$33.30$34.22$30.52$30.23$34.22Y/Y % Change----10.5%27.0%-1.6%1.3%-1.9%6.6%5.0%-20.9%13.5%6.6%8.2%2.8%VillageRental Rate (NNN)$20.77$20.54$22.59$22.16$19.80$28.98$24.60$25.06$29.62$33.87$33.99$45.64$42.00$37.02$30.57$42.00Y/Y % Change----1.1%10.0%-1.9%-10.6%46.4%-15.1%1.9%18.2%14.3%0.4%34.3%-8.0%Olde CarlsbadRental Rate (NNN)$25.41$25.23$21.96$21.75$21.73$22.18---------------$39.00$39.00$39.00$28.73$39.00Y/Y % Change----0.7%-13.0%-1.0%-0.1%2.1%------------------0.0%South BeachRental Rate (NNN)$18.00------------$34.26$40.09$42.00---$35.73$26.53$24.00$24.00$27.57$32.37$24.00Y/Y % Change------------------17.0%4.8%-------25.7%-9.5%0.0%Industrial Core/Kelly RanchRental Rate (NNN)$25.04$39.29$37.18$22.80$26.88$26.17$25.66$38.32$40.19$48.80$42.00$42.00$42.00$43.00$35.48$42.00Y/Y % Change---56.9%-5.4%-38.7%17.9%-2.6%-1.9%49.3%4.9%21.4%-13.9%0.0%0.0%AviaraRental Rate (NNN)$42.00$42.00$42.00$42.00---$42.22$41.97$40.93$46.17$45.92$48.00$47.55$48.15$47.16$44.77$48.15Y/Y % Change---0.0%0.0%0.0%-------0.6%-2.5%12.8%-0.5%4.5%-0.9%1.3%PoinsettiaRental Rate (NNN)$33.00$36.86$39.00-$38.52--$36.00--$39.48-$51.00$51.00Y/Y % Change---11.7%5.8%------------------------------Source: CoStar$5$15$25$35$45$552008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)North CountyCarlsbadOceansideSan MarcosVistaEncinitas$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$552008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)Olde CarlsbadVillageSouth BeachIndustrial Core/Kelly RanchAviara21690.00 Retail Trends: RentsPage 4 of 4THE CONCORD GROUPDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 105 of 142_,.e.. -----~~~~~ i ---' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGCARLSBADJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$89,706,07913%$78,044,289$6915%$27,908,245$50,136,04464%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$65,261,58213%$56,777,576$5034%$76,484,789($19,707,213)(35%)Books & Music$10,244,36713%$8,912,599$791%$3,204,326$5,708,27364%Department Stores$234,805,08613%$204,280,425$1,80913%$147,154,241$57,126,18428%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$20,228,95113%$17,599,187$1561%$28,930,570($11,331,383)(64%)Electronics/Appliances$87,848,46713%$76,428,166$6775%$78,599,006($2,170,840)(3%)Clothing & Accessories$173,069,21713%$150,570,219$1,3339%$240,644,876($90,074,657)(60%)Other General Merchandise$153,684,80913%$133,705,784$1,1848%$195,571,957($61,866,173)(46%)GAFO Total:$834,848,558$726,318,245$6,43245%$798,498,010($72,179,765)(10%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$260,652,74813%$226,767,891$2,00814%$247,717,007($20,949,116)(9%)Florist$4,683,95713%$4,075,043$360%$3,991,592$83,4512%Used Merch$9,462,74213%$8,232,586$731%$1,647,731$6,584,85580%Other Misc. Stores$52,879,10513%$46,004,821$4073%$114,669,876($68,665,055)(149%)Health & Personal Care$159,811,81913%$139,036,283$1,2319%$226,343,901($87,307,618)(63%)Building/Garden Materials$147,014,26313%$127,902,409$1,1338%$116,174,748$11,727,6619%Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$371,803,40113%$323,468,959$2,86420%$245,360,207$78,108,75224%Non-GAFO Total:$1,006,308,035$875,487,990$7,75255%$955,905,062($80,417,072)(9%)Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$1,841,156,593$1,601,806,236$14,184100%$1,754,403,072($152,596,836)(8%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$198,880,296$198,880,296$1,76126%$111,570,095$87,310,20144%Motor Vehicle$481,999,978$481,999,978$4,26864%$620,704,895($138,704,917)(29%)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$70,168,220$70,168,220$6219%$26,986,471$43,181,74962%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$751,048,494$751,048,494$6,651100%$759,261,461($8,212,967)(1%)Total:$2,592,205,087$2,352,854,730$20,835100%$2,513,664,533($160,809,803)(7%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapPage 1 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 106 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSCARLSBADJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $483/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$89,706,07913%$78,044,289 $27,908,245 31%$50,136,044105,550Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$65,261,58213%$56,777,576 $76,484,789 117%($19,707,213)(41,489)Books & Music$10,244,36713%$8,912,599 $3,204,326 31%$5,708,27312,017Department Stores$234,805,08613%$204,280,425 $147,154,241 63%$57,126,184120,266Office Supplies, Gift Stores$20,228,95113%$17,599,187 $28,930,570 143%($11,331,383)(23,856)Electronics/Appliances$87,848,46713%$76,428,166 $78,599,006 89%($2,170,840)(4,570)Clothing & Accessories$173,069,21713%$150,570,219 $240,644,876 139%($90,074,657)(189,631)Other General Merchandise$153,684,80913%$133,705,784 $195,571,957 127%($61,866,173)(130,245)GAFO Total:$834,848,558$726,318,245 $798,498,010 96%($72,179,765)1,836,777$435$475(151,957)Net Inflow/ Outflow($72,179,765)Net Inflow/ Outflow(151,957)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$260,652,74813%$226,767,891 $247,717,007 95%($20,949,116)(44,103)Florist$4,683,95713%$4,075,043 $3,991,592 85%$83,451176Used Merch$9,462,74213%$8,232,586 $1,647,731 17%$6,584,85513,863Other Misc. Stores$52,879,10513%$46,004,821 $114,669,876 217%($68,665,055)(144,558)Health & Personal Care$159,811,81913%$139,036,283 $226,343,901 142%($87,307,618)(183,806)Building/Garden Materials$147,014,26313%$127,902,409 $116,174,748 79%$11,727,66124,690Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$371,803,40113%$323,468,959 $245,360,207 66%$78,108,752164,439Non-GAFO Total:$1,006,308,035$875,487,990 $955,905,062 95%($80,417,072)2,214,010$432$475(169,299)Net Inflow/ Outflow($80,417,072)Net Inflow/ Outflow(169,299)Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $1,841,156,593$1,601,806,236 $1,754,403,072 95%($152,596,836)4,050,787$433$475(321,256)Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($152,596,836)Net Inflow/ Outflow(321,256)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$198,880,296$198,880,296 $111,570,095 56%$87,310,201174,620Motor Vehicle$481,999,978$481,999,978 $620,704,895 129%($138,704,917)(277,410)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$70,168,220$70,168,220 $26,986,471 38%$43,181,74986,363Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$751,048,494$751,048,494 $759,261,461 101%($8,212,967)1,652,405$459$500(16,426)Net Inflow/ Outflow($8,212,967)Net Inflow/ Outflow(16,426)All Spending Categories:$2,592,205,087$2,352,854,730 $2,513,664,533 97%($160,809,803)5,703,192 $441$483(337,682)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($160,809,803)Net Inflow/ Outflow(337,682)(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandPage 2 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 107 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACECARLSBADJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline44,10744,32144,53644,75244,97045,1881,081% Growth0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Population - Baseline112,930113,532114,136114,744115,356115,9703,040% Growth0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Persons/HH2.562.562.562.562.572.57Households - Uplift (1)44,10744,36044,61544,87145,12945,3881,281% Growth0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%Population - Uplift112,930113,632114,338115,049115,764116,483# Growth7027067117157193,553% Growth0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%Median Household Income$120,203$122,674$125,197$127,771$130,398$133,079Growth2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$14,184$14,476$14,773$15,077$15,387$15,703Per HH$36,316$37,080$37,861$38,657$39,471$40,301New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$10.2$10.4$10.7$11.0$11.3Sales/ Square Foot (1)$483$483$483$483$483Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend21,02121,58722,16722,76423,376110,915Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps-9,638-9,638-9,638-9,638-9,638-48,18815% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF12,545(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandPage 3 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 108 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGINDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCHJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$2,359,61213%$2,052,862$7935%$5,668,355($3,615,493)(176%)Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$1,733,42713%$1,508,081$5834%$47,035,454($45,527,373)(3019%)Books & Music$273,87713%$238,273$921%$0$238,273100%Department Stores$6,199,06513%$5,393,187$2,08413%$3,128,530$2,264,65742%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$531,51813%$462,421$1791%$1,163,376($700,955)(152%)Electronics/Appliances$2,358,80813%$2,052,163$7935%$30,538,019($28,485,856)(1388%)Clothing & Accessories$4,653,29813%$4,048,369$1,56410%$74,799,511($70,751,142)(1748%)Other General Merchandise$4,005,80113%$3,485,047$1,3478%$2,488,899$996,14829%GAFO Total:$22,115,406$19,240,403$7,43446%$164,822,144($145,581,741)(757%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$6,905,06813%$6,007,409$2,32114%$30,520,538($24,513,129)(408%)Florist$121,92213%$106,072$410%$758,542($652,470)(615%)Used Merch$252,07313%$219,304$851%$0$219,304100%Other Misc. Stores$1,390,21913%$1,209,491$4673%$95,402,135($94,192,644)(7788%)Health & Personal Care$4,198,69613%$3,652,866$1,4119%$9,361,197($5,708,331)(156%)Building/Garden Materials$3,792,73113%$3,299,676$1,2758%$8,857,806($5,558,130)(168%)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$9,768,23513%$8,498,364$3,28420%$4,865,047$3,633,31743%Non-GAFO Total:$26,428,944$22,993,181$8,88554%$149,765,265($126,772,084)(551%)Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$48,544,350$42,233,585$16,319100%$314,587,409($272,353,825)(561%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$5,163,493$5,163,493$1,99527%$4,497,813$665,68013%Motor Vehicle$12,436,170$12,436,170$4,80564%$524,814,868($512,378,698)(4120%)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$1,871,141$1,871,141$72310%$9,235,759($7,364,618)(394%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$19,470,804$19,470,804$7,523100%$538,548,440($519,077,636)(2666%)Total:$68,015,154$61,704,389$23,842100%$853,135,849($791,431,461)(1283%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapICPage 4 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 109 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSINDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCHJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $353/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$2,359,61213%$2,052,862 $5,668,355 240%($3,615,493)(18,077)Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$1,733,42713%$1,508,081 $47,035,454 2713%($45,527,373)(227,637)Books & Music$273,87713%$238,273$0 0%$238,2731,191Department Stores$6,199,06513%$5,393,187 $3,128,530 50%$2,264,65711,323Office Supplies, Gift Stores$531,51813%$462,421 $1,163,376 219%($700,955)(3,505)Electronics/Appliances$2,358,80813%$2,052,163 $30,538,019 1295%($28,485,856)(142,429)Clothing & Accessories$4,653,29813%$4,048,369 $74,799,511 1607%($70,751,142)(353,756)Other General Merchandise$4,005,80113%$3,485,047 $2,488,899 62%$996,1484,981GAFO Total:$22,115,406$19,240,403 $164,822,144 745%($145,581,741)947,811$174$200(727,909)Net Inflow/ Outflow($145,581,741)Net Inflow/ Outflow(727,909)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$6,905,06813%$6,007,409 $30,520,538 442%($24,513,129)(153,207)Florist$121,92213%$106,072$758,542 622%($652,470)(4,078)Used Merch$252,07313%$219,304$0 0%$219,3041,371Other Misc. Stores$1,390,21913%$1,209,491 $95,402,135 6862%($94,192,644)(588,704)Health & Personal Care$4,198,69613%$3,652,866 $9,361,197 223%($5,708,331)(35,677)Building/Garden Materials$3,792,73113%$3,299,676 $8,857,806 234%($5,558,130)(34,738)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$9,768,23513%$8,498,364 $4,865,047 50%$3,633,31722,708Non-GAFO Total:$26,428,944$22,993,181 $149,765,265 567%($126,772,084)1,132,679$132$160(792,326)Net Inflow/ Outflow($126,772,084)Net Inflow/ Outflow(792,326)Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $48,544,350$42,233,585$314,587,409 648%($272,353,825)2,080,490$151$180(1,520,234)Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($272,353,825)Net Inflow/ Outflow(1,520,234)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$5,163,493$5,163,493 $4,497,813 87%$665,680951Motor Vehicle$12,436,170$12,436,170 $524,814,868 4220%($512,378,698)(731,970)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$1,871,141$1,871,141 $9,235,759 494%($7,364,618)(10,521)Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$19,470,804$19,470,804 $538,548,440 2766%($519,077,636)834,470$645$700(741,539)Net Inflow/ Outflow($519,077,636)Net Inflow/ Outflow(741,539)All Spending Categories:$68,015,154$61,704,389 $853,135,849 1254%($791,431,461)2,914,960 $293$353(2,261,774)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($791,431,461)Net Inflow/ Outflow(2,261,774)(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandICPage 5 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 110 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACEINDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCHJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline1,0141,0151,0161,0171,0181,0195% Growth0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Population - Baseline2,5882,5932,5972,6022,6062,61123% Growth0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%Persons/HH2.552.552.562.562.562.56Households - Uplift (1)1,0141,0521,0921,1321,1751,219205% Growth3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%Population - Uplift2,5882,6872,7902,8973,0083,123# Growth99103107111115535% Growth3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%Median Household Income$120,548$123,160$125,828$128,554$131,339$134,185Growth2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$16,319$16,673$17,034$17,403$17,780$18,165Per HH$41,650$42,586$43,543$44,522$45,522$46,545New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$1.7$1.8$1.9$2.0$2.1Sales/ Square Foot (1)$353$353$353$353$353Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend4,6814,9655,2675,5885,92726,428Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps-45,607-45,607-45,607-45,607-45,607-228,03515% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF(40,321)(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandICPage 6 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 111 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGPOINSETTIAJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$10,176,48113%$8,853,538$7305%$2,796,364$6,057,17468%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$7,394,62313%$6,433,322$5304%$3,095,477$3,337,84552%Books & Music$1,160,77213%$1,009,872$831%$0$1,009,872100%Department Stores$26,666,92413%$23,200,224$1,91213%$0$23,200,224100%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$2,298,23713%$1,999,466$1651%$1,105,850$893,61645%Electronics/Appliances$9,829,43613%$8,551,609$7055%$16,265,088($7,713,479)(90%)Clothing & Accessories$19,599,50213%$17,051,567$1,4059%$8,089,364$8,962,20353%Other General Merchandise$17,519,37913%$15,241,860$1,2568%$187,910,368($172,668,508)(1133%)GAFO Total:$94,645,354$82,341,458$6,78545%$219,262,511($136,921,053)(166%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$29,698,94713%$25,838,084$2,12914%$20,542,483$5,295,60120%Florist$540,62213%$470,341$390%$688,772($218,431)(46%)Used Merch$1,069,84113%$930,762$771%$0$930,762100%Other Misc. Stores$5,978,43213%$5,201,236$4293%$2,922,682$2,278,55444%Health & Personal Care$17,966,87513%$15,631,181$1,2889%$16,040,454($409,273)(3%)Building/Garden Materials$16,619,57713%$14,459,032$1,1928%$45,321,686($30,862,654)(213%)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$42,286,74113%$36,789,465$3,03220%$10,410,984$26,378,48172%Non-GAFO Total:$114,161,035$99,320,100$8,18555%$95,927,061$3,393,0393%Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$208,806,389$181,661,558$14,970100%$315,189,572($133,528,014)(64%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$22,632,754$22,632,754$1,86526%$15,803,241$6,829,51330%Motor Vehicle$55,110,413$55,110,413$4,54164%$6,862,101$48,248,31288%Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$7,918,966$7,918,966$6539%$5,692,628$2,226,33828%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$85,662,133$85,662,133$7,059100%$28,357,970$57,304,16367%Total:$294,468,522$267,323,691$22,029100%$343,547,542($76,223,851)(29%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapPoiPage 7 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 112 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSPOINSETTIAJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $757/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$10,176,48113%$8,853,538 $2,796,364 27%$6,057,1744,121Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$7,394,62313%$6,433,322 $3,095,477 42%$3,337,8452,271Books & Music$1,160,77213%$1,009,872$0 0%$1,009,872687Department Stores$26,666,92413%$23,200,224$0 0%$23,200,22415,782Office Supplies, Gift Stores$2,298,23713%$1,999,466 $1,105,850 48%$893,616608Electronics/Appliances$9,829,43613%$8,551,609 $16,265,088 165%($7,713,479)(5,247)Clothing & Accessories$19,599,50213%$17,051,567 $8,089,364 41%$8,962,2036,097Other General Merchandise$17,519,37913%$15,241,860 $187,910,368 1073%($172,668,508)(117,462)GAFO Total:$94,645,354$82,341,458 $219,262,511 232%($136,921,053)152,761$1,435$1,470(93,144)Net Inflow/ Outflow($136,921,053)Net Inflow/ Outflow(93,144)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$29,698,94713%$25,838,084 $20,542,483 69%$5,295,6019,456Florist$540,62213%$470,341$688,772 127%($218,431)(390)Used Merch$1,069,84113%$930,762$0 0%$930,7621,662Other Misc. Stores$5,978,43213%$5,201,236 $2,922,682 49%$2,278,5544,069Health & Personal Care$17,966,87513%$15,631,181 $16,040,454 89%($409,273)(731)Building/Garden Materials$16,619,57713%$14,459,032 $45,321,686 273%($30,862,654)(55,112)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$42,286,74113%$36,789,465 $10,410,984 25%$26,378,48147,104Non-GAFO Total:$114,161,035$99,320,100 $95,927,061 84%$3,393,039184,260$521$5606,059Net Inflow/ Outflow$3,393,039Net Inflow/ Outflow6,059Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $208,806,389$181,661,558 $315,189,572 151%($133,528,014)337,021$935$1,015(87,085)Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($133,528,014)Net Inflow/ Outflow(87,085)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$22,632,754$22,632,754 $15,803,241 70%$6,829,51328,456Motor Vehicle$55,110,413$55,110,413 $6,862,101 12% $48,248,312201,035Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$7,918,966$7,918,966 $5,692,628 72%$2,226,3389,276Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$85,662,133$85,662,133 $28,357,970 33% $57,304,163138,262$205$240238,767Net Inflow/ Outflow$57,304,163Net Inflow/ Outflow238,767All Spending Categories:$294,468,522$267,323,691 $343,547,542 117%($76,223,851)475,283 $723$757151,683(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($76,223,851)Net Inflow/ Outflow151,683(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandPoiPage 8 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 113 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACEPOINSETTIAJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline4,7394,7454,7504,7564,7614,76728% Growth0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Population - Baseline12,13512,15512,17612,19612,21712,237102% Growth0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%Persons/HH2.562.562.562.562.572.57Households - Uplift (1)4,7394,7844,8294,8754,9214,967228% Growth0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Population - Uplift12,13512,25612,37812,50112,62512,750# Growth121122123124126615% Growth1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Median Household Income$118,990$121,169$123,387$125,646$127,946$130,289Growth1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$14,970$15,244$15,523$15,807$16,097$16,392Per HH$38,333$39,055$39,789$40,538$41,301$42,078New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$1.8$1.9$1.9$2.0$2.1Sales/ Square Foot (1)$757$757$757$757$757Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend2,4312,5002,5712,6442,71912,865Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps-2,613-2,613-2,613-2,613-2,613-13,06315% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF(39)(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandPoiPage 9 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 114 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGOLDE CARLSBADJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$6,021,92413%$5,239,074$5865%$1,819,054$3,420,02065%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$4,390,23413%$3,819,504$4273%$3,067,647$751,85720%Books & Music$711,38513%$618,905$691%$1,903,178($1,284,273)(208%)Department Stores$16,043,99313%$13,958,274$1,56213%$77,974,045($64,015,771)(459%)Office Supplies, Gift Stores$1,376,80813%$1,197,823$1341%$2,736,167($1,538,344)(128%)Electronics/Appliances$5,971,47913%$5,195,187$5815%$4,736,484$458,7039%Clothing & Accessories$11,916,76513%$10,367,586$1,1609%$74,133,310($63,765,724)(615%)Other General Merchandise$10,592,40813%$9,215,395$1,0318%$2,259,370$6,956,02575%GAFO Total:$57,024,996$49,611,747$5,55145%$168,629,255($119,017,508)(240%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$17,814,30813%$15,498,448$1,73414%$20,095,739($4,597,291)(30%)Florist$338,84013%$294,791$330%$0$294,791100%Used Merch$642,17313%$558,691$631%$148,072$410,61973%Other Misc. Stores$3,577,67713%$3,112,579$3483%$135,452$2,977,12796%Health & Personal Care$10,985,99213%$9,557,813$1,0699%$8,300,626$1,257,18713%Building/Garden Materials$9,885,55213%$8,600,430$9628%$1,700,537$6,899,89380%Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$25,745,10113%$22,398,238$2,50620%$1,480,820$20,917,41893%Non-GAFO Total:$68,989,643$60,020,989$6,71555%$31,861,246$28,159,74347%Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$126,014,639$109,632,736$12,266100%$200,490,501($90,857,765)(72%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$13,704,490$13,704,490$1,53327%$3,598,420$10,106,07074%Motor Vehicle$32,762,202$32,762,202$3,66564%$1,380,810$31,381,39296%Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$4,943,501$4,943,501$55310%$310,886$4,632,61594%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$51,410,193$51,410,193$5,752100%$5,290,116$46,120,07790%Total:$177,424,832$161,042,929$18,018100%$205,780,617($44,737,688)(28%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapcarPage 10 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 115 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSOLDE CARLSBADJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $147/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$6,021,92413%$5,239,074 $1,819,054 30%$3,420,0209,771Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$4,390,23413%$3,819,504 $3,067,647 70%$751,8572,148Books & Music$711,38513%$618,905 $1,903,178 268%($1,284,273)(3,669)Department Stores$16,043,99313%$13,958,274 $77,974,045 486%($64,015,771)(182,902)Office Supplies, Gift Stores$1,376,80813%$1,197,823 $2,736,167 199%($1,538,344)(4,395)Electronics/Appliances$5,971,47913%$5,195,187 $4,736,484 79%$458,7031,311Clothing & Accessories$11,916,76513%$10,367,586 $74,133,310 622%($63,765,724)(182,188)Other General Merchandise$10,592,40813%$9,215,395 $2,259,370 21%$6,956,02519,874GAFO Total:$57,024,996$49,611,747 $168,629,255 296%($119,017,508)523,700$322$350(340,050)Net Inflow/ Outflow($119,017,508)Net Inflow/ Outflow(340,050)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$17,814,30813%$15,498,448 $20,095,739 113%($4,597,291)(65,676)Florist$338,84013%$294,791$0 0%$294,7914,211Used Merch$642,17313%$558,691$148,072 23%$410,6195,866Other Misc. Stores$3,577,67713%$3,112,579$135,452 4%$2,977,12742,530Health & Personal Care$10,985,99213%$9,557,813 $8,300,626 76%$1,257,18717,960Building/Garden Materials$9,885,55213%$8,600,430 $1,700,537 17%$6,899,89398,570Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$25,745,10113%$22,398,238 $1,480,820 6%$20,917,418298,820Non-GAFO Total:$68,989,643$60,020,989 $31,861,246 46% $28,159,743633,580$50$70402,282Net Inflow/ Outflow$28,159,743Net Inflow/ Outflow402,282Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $126,014,639$109,632,736 $200,490,501 159%($90,857,765)1,157,280$173$21062,232Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($90,857,765)Net Inflow/ Outflow62,232Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$13,704,490$13,704,490 $3,598,420 26%$10,106,070505,304Motor Vehicle$32,762,202$32,762,202 $1,380,810 4% $31,381,3921,569,070Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$4,943,501$4,943,501$310,886 6%$4,632,615231,631Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$51,410,193$51,410,193 $5,290,116 10% $46,120,077472,135$11$202,306,004Net Inflow/ Outflow$46,120,077Net Inflow/ Outflow2,306,004All Spending Categories:$177,424,832$161,042,929 $205,780,617 116%($44,737,688)1,629,415 $126$1472,368,236(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($44,737,688)Net Inflow/ Outflow$2,368,236(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandcarPage 11 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 116 of 142-------□---□ I I D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACEOLDE CARLSBADJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline3,5693,5763,5833,5893,5963,60334% Growth0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%Population - Baseline8,9388,9578,9778,9969,0169,03597% Growth0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%Persons/HH2.502.512.512.512.512.51Households - Uplift (1)3,5693,6153,6613,7083,7553,803234% Growth1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Population - Uplift8,9389,0559,1739,2929,4149,537# Growth117118120121123599% Growth1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Median Household Income$99,106$100,823$102,569$104,346$106,153$107,992Growth1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$12,266$12,478$12,695$12,914$13,138$13,366Per HH$30,718$31,258$31,808$32,368$32,937$33,516New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$1.5$1.5$1.5$1.6$1.6Sales/ Square Foot (1)$147$147$147$147$147Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend9,92210,22610,53910,86111,19352,741Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps1,8671,8671,8671,8671,8679,33515% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF12,415(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandcarPage 12 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 117 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGVILLAGEJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$2,118,61613%$1,843,196$4654%$711,139$1,132,05761%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$1,628,25813%$1,416,584$3583%$2,612,457($1,195,873)(84%)Books & Music$274,12413%$238,488$601%$0$238,488100%Department Stores$6,072,20913%$5,282,822$1,33413%$0$5,282,822100%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$515,88913%$448,823$1131%$2,154,786($1,705,963)(380%)Electronics/Appliances$2,147,89313%$1,868,667$4725%$2,741,717($873,050)(47%)Clothing & Accessories$4,388,28413%$3,817,807$9649%$15,355,863($11,538,056)(302%)Other General Merchandise$4,129,40213%$3,592,580$9079%$695,737$2,896,84381%GAFO Total:$21,274,675$18,508,967$4,67345%$24,271,699($5,762,732)(31%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$6,664,37913%$5,798,010$1,46414%$56,663,659($50,865,649)(877%)Florist$94,32913%$82,066$210%$206,875($124,809)(152%)Used Merch$241,63113%$210,219$531%$962,468($752,249)(358%)Other Misc. Stores$1,393,49713%$1,212,342$3063%$2,841,224($1,628,882)(134%)Health & Personal Care$4,221,83313%$3,672,995$9279%$5,774,680($2,101,685)(57%)Building/Garden Materials$3,100,46513%$2,697,405$6817%$8,077,676($5,380,271)(199%)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$10,115,37713%$8,800,378$2,22221%$20,125,930($11,325,552)(129%)Non-GAFO Total:$25,831,511$22,473,415$5,67455%$94,652,512($72,179,097)(321%)Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$47,106,186$40,982,382$10,346100%$118,924,211($77,941,829)(165%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$5,281,535$5,281,535$1,33328%$8,687,418($3,405,883)(64%)Motor Vehicle$11,881,259$11,881,259$3,00063%$11,795,077$86,1821%Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$1,770,703$1,770,703$4479%$0$1,770,703100%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$18,933,497$18,933,497$4,780100%$20,482,495($1,548,998)(8%)Total:$66,039,683$59,915,879$15,126100%$139,406,706($79,490,827)(133%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapvilPage 13 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 118 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSVILLAGEJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $198/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$2,118,61613%$1,843,196$711,139 34%$1,132,0579,056Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$1,628,25813%$1,416,584 $2,612,457 160%($1,195,873)(9,567)Books & Music$274,12413%$238,488$0 0%$238,4881,908Department Stores$6,072,20913%$5,282,822$0 0%$5,282,82242,263Office Supplies, Gift Stores$515,88913%$448,823 $2,154,786 418%($1,705,963)(13,648)Electronics/Appliances$2,147,89313%$1,868,667 $2,741,717 128%($873,050)(6,984)Clothing & Accessories$4,388,28413%$3,817,807 $15,355,863 350%($11,538,056)(92,304)Other General Merchandise$4,129,40213%$3,592,580$695,737 17%$2,896,84323,175GAFO Total:$21,274,675$18,508,967 $24,271,699 114%($5,762,732)237,301$102$125(46,102)Net Inflow/ Outflow($5,762,732)Net Inflow/ Outflow(46,102)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$6,664,37913%$5,798,010 $56,663,659 850%($50,865,649)(145,330)Florist$94,32913%$82,066$206,875 219%($124,809)(357)Used Merch$241,63113%$210,219$962,468 398%($752,249)(2,149)Other Misc. Stores$1,393,49713%$1,212,342 $2,841,224 204%($1,628,882)(4,654)Health & Personal Care$4,221,83313%$3,672,995 $5,774,680 137%($2,101,685)(6,005)Building/Garden Materials$3,100,46513%$2,697,405 $8,077,676 261%($5,380,271)(15,372)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$10,115,37713%$8,800,378 $20,125,930 199%($11,325,552)(32,359)Non-GAFO Total:$25,831,511$22,473,415 $94,652,512 366%($72,179,097)288,128$329$350(206,226)Net Inflow/ Outflow($72,179,097)Net Inflow/ Outflow(206,226)Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $47,106,186$40,982,382$118,924,211 252%($77,941,829)525,429$226$238(252,328)Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($77,941,829)Net Inflow/ Outflow(252,328)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$5,281,535$5,281,535 $8,687,418 164%($3,405,883)(28,382)Motor Vehicle$11,881,259$11,881,259 $11,795,077 99%$86,182718Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$1,770,703$1,770,703$0 0%$1,770,70314,756Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$18,933,497$18,933,497 $20,482,495 108%($1,548,998)211,187$97$120(12,908)Net Inflow/ Outflow($1,548,998)Net Inflow/ Outflow(12,908)All Spending Categories:$66,039,683$59,915,879 $139,406,706 211%($79,490,827)736,616 $189$198(265,236)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($79,490,827)Net Inflow/ Outflow(265,236)(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandvilPage 14 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 119 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACEVILLAGEJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline1,9251,9521,9792,0072,0352,064139% Growth1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%Population - Baseline3,9614,0114,0614,1124,1644,216255% Growth1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Persons/HH2.062.052.052.052.052.04Households - Uplift (1)1,9251,9882,0542,1222,1922,264339% Growth3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%Population - Uplift3,9614,0864,2144,3474,4834,625# Growth125129133137141664% Growth3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%Median Household Income$78,661$79,402$80,151$80,906$81,668$82,438Growth0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$10,346$10,444$10,542$10,642$10,742$10,843Per HH$21,290$21,459$21,629$21,801$21,974$22,149New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$1.3$1.4$1.4$1.5$1.5Sales/ Square Foot (1)$198$198$198$198$198Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend6,5626,8327,1147,4077,71235,626Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps-7,570-7,570-7,570-7,570-7,570-37,84915% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF(445)(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandvilPage 15 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 120 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGSOUTH BEACHJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$3,837,14613%$3,338,317$7715%$0$3,338,317100%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$2,769,87613%$2,409,792$5564%$798,109$1,611,68367%Books & Music$431,33013%$375,257$871%$0$375,257100%Department Stores$9,914,12213%$8,625,286$1,99113%$0$8,625,286100%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$859,17113%$747,479$1731%$0$747,479100%Electronics/Appliances$3,804,69013%$3,310,080$7645%$2,078,244$1,231,83637%Clothing & Accessories$7,352,22013%$6,396,431$1,4779%$7,481,542($1,085,111)(17%)Other General Merchandise$6,444,58213%$5,606,786$1,2948%$695,737$4,911,04988%GAFO Total:$35,413,137$30,809,429$7,11245%$11,053,632$19,755,79764%Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$10,997,87713%$9,568,153$2,20914%$42,443,143($32,874,990)(344%)Florist$201,04813%$174,912$400%$1,032,752($857,840)(490%)Used Merch$403,03813%$350,643$811%$0$350,643100%Other Misc. Stores$2,269,09613%$1,974,114$4563%$1,263,945$710,16936%Health & Personal Care$6,921,10713%$6,021,363$1,3909%$12,371,381($6,350,018)(105%)Building/Garden Materials$6,360,64713%$5,533,763$1,2778%$7,095,156($1,561,393)(28%)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$15,659,10513%$13,623,421$3,14520%$20,189,791($6,566,370)(48%)Non-GAFO Total:$42,811,918$37,246,369$8,59855%$84,396,168($47,149,799)(127%)Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$78,225,055$68,055,798$15,710100%$95,449,800($27,394,002)(35%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$8,343,499$8,343,499$1,92626%$29,683,349($21,339,850)(256%)Motor Vehicle$20,304,909$20,304,909$4,68764%$54,032,121($33,727,212)(166%)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$3,011,247$3,011,247$69510%$8,322,111($5,310,864)(176%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$31,659,655$31,659,655$7,308100%$92,037,581($60,377,926)(191%)Total:$109,884,710$99,715,453$23,018100%$187,487,381($87,771,928)(88%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapsouPage 16 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 121 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSSOUTH BEACHJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $603/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$3,837,14613%$3,338,317$0 0%$3,338,31726,707Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$2,769,87613%$2,409,792$798,109 29%$1,611,68312,893Books & Music$431,33013%$375,257$0 0%$375,2573,002Department Stores$9,914,12213%$8,625,286$0 0%$8,625,28669,002Office Supplies, Gift Stores$859,17113%$747,479$0 0%$747,4795,980Electronics/Appliances$3,804,69013%$3,310,080 $2,078,244 55%$1,231,8369,855Clothing & Accessories$7,352,22013%$6,396,431 $7,481,542 102%($1,085,111)(8,681)Other General Merchandise$6,444,58213%$5,606,786$695,737 11%$4,911,04939,288GAFO Total:$35,413,137$30,809,429 $11,053,632 31% $19,755,797105,300$105$125158,046Net Inflow/ Outflow$19,755,797Net Inflow/ Outflow158,046Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$10,997,87713%$9,568,153 $42,443,143 386%($32,874,990)(47,993)Florist$201,04813%$174,912 $1,032,752 514%($857,840)(1,252)Used Merch$403,03813%$350,643$0 0%$350,643512Other Misc. Stores$2,269,09613%$1,974,114 $1,263,945 56%$710,1691,037Health & Personal Care$6,921,10713%$6,021,363 $12,371,381 179%($6,350,018)(9,270)Building/Garden Materials$6,360,64713%$5,533,763 $7,095,156 112%($1,561,393)(2,279)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$15,659,10513%$13,623,421 $20,189,791 129%($6,566,370)(9,586)Non-GAFO Total:$42,811,918$37,246,369 $84,396,168 197%($47,149,799)127,300$663$685(68,832)Net Inflow/ Outflow($47,149,799)Net Inflow/ Outflow(68,832)Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $78,225,055$68,055,798$95,449,800 122%($27,394,002)232,601$410$40589,215Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($27,394,002)Net Inflow/ Outflow89,215Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$8,343,499$8,343,499 $29,683,349 356%($21,339,850)(21,340)Motor Vehicle$20,304,909$20,304,909 $54,032,121 266%($33,727,212)(33,727)Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$3,011,247$3,011,247 $8,322,111 276%($5,310,864)(5,311)Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$31,659,655$31,659,655 $92,037,581 291%($60,377,926)94,139$978$1,000(60,378)Net Inflow/ Outflow($60,377,926)Net Inflow/ Outflow(60,378)All Spending Categories:$109,884,710$99,715,453 $187,487,381 171%($87,771,928)326,740 $574$60328,837(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($87,771,928)Net Inflow/ Outflow28,837(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandsouPage 17 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 122 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACESOUTH BEACHJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline1,7791,7821,7851,7881,7911,79415% Growth0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%Population - Baseline4,3324,3464,3614,3754,3904,40472% Growth0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%Persons/HH2.442.442.442.452.452.45Households - Uplift (1)1,7791,8201,8621,9051,9491,994215% Growth2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%Population - Uplift4,3324,4394,5494,6614,7774,895# Growth107110113115118563% Growth2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Median Household Income$117,248$119,965$122,745$125,590$128,500$131,478Growth2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$15,710$16,074$16,447$16,828$17,218$17,617Per HH$38,255$39,205$40,178$41,176$42,199$43,246New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$1.7$1.8$1.9$2.0$2.1Sales/ Square Foot (1)$603$603$603$603$603Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend2,8552,9933,1393,2913,45015,728Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps2,6762,6762,6762,6762,67613,38215% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF5,822(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandsouPage 18 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 123 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGRANCHO LA COSTAJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$16,845,03013%$14,655,176$8275%$9,204,393$5,450,78337%Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$12,094,14913%$10,521,910$5944%$12,714,080($2,192,170)(21%)Books & Music$1,880,04413%$1,635,638$921%$0$1,635,638100%Department Stores$43,508,65413%$37,852,529$2,13613%$69,674,000($31,821,471)(84%)Office Supplies, Gift Stores$3,782,13313%$3,290,456$1861%$2,775,946$514,51016%Electronics/Appliances$16,356,82913%$14,230,441$8035%$10,399,049$3,831,39227%Clothing & Accessories$32,016,85213%$27,854,661$1,5729%$57,148,056($29,293,395)(105%)Other General Merchandise$28,495,21613%$24,790,838$1,3998%$0$24,790,838100%GAFO Total:$154,978,907$134,831,649$7,60945%$161,915,524($27,083,875)(20%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$48,121,66213%$41,865,846$2,36214%$25,490,501$16,375,34539%Florist$945,42213%$822,517$460%$757,730$64,7878%Used Merch$1,754,21713%$1,526,169$861%$148,072$1,378,09790%Other Misc. Stores$9,884,52113%$8,599,533$4853%$0$8,599,533100%Health & Personal Care$30,438,92513%$26,481,865$1,4949%$14,151,855$12,330,01047%Building/Garden Materials$28,511,28913%$24,804,821$1,4008%$3,815,257$20,989,56485%Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$69,034,85513%$60,060,324$3,38920%$27,277,204$32,783,12055%Non-GAFO Total:$188,690,891$164,161,075$9,26455%$71,640,619$92,520,45656%Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$343,669,798$298,992,724$16,872100%$233,556,143$65,436,58119%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$36,629,877$36,629,877$2,06726%$14,391,978$22,237,89961%Motor Vehicle$90,016,810$90,016,810$5,08064%$0$90,016,810100%Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$13,244,870$13,244,870$7479%$89,769$13,155,10199%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$139,891,557$139,891,557$7,894100%$14,481,747$125,409,81090%Total:$483,561,355$438,884,281$24,766100%$248,037,890$190,846,39143%(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapRLPage 19 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 124 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSRANCHO LA COSTAJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $413/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$16,845,03013%$14,655,176 $9,204,393 55%$5,450,7836,607Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$12,094,14913%$10,521,910 $12,714,080 105%($2,192,170)(2,657)Books & Music$1,880,04413%$1,635,638$0 0%$1,635,6381,983Department Stores$43,508,65413%$37,852,529 $69,674,000 160%($31,821,471)(38,571)Office Supplies, Gift Stores$3,782,13313%$3,290,456 $2,775,946 73%$514,510624Electronics/Appliances$16,356,82913%$14,230,441 $10,399,049 64%$3,831,3924,644Clothing & Accessories$32,016,85213%$27,854,661 $57,148,056 178%($29,293,395)(35,507)Other General Merchandise$28,495,21613%$24,790,838$0 0%$24,790,83830,050GAFO Total:$154,978,907$134,831,649 $161,915,524 104%($27,083,875)204,877$790$825(32,829)Net Inflow/ Outflow($27,083,875)Net Inflow/ Outflow(32,829)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$48,121,66213%$41,865,846 $25,490,501 53%$16,375,34551,985Florist$945,42213%$822,517$757,730 80%$64,787206Used Merch$1,754,21713%$1,526,169$148,072 8%$1,378,0974,375Other Misc. Stores$9,884,52113%$8,599,533$0 0%$8,599,53327,300Health & Personal Care$30,438,92513%$26,481,865 $14,151,855 46%$12,330,01039,143Building/Garden Materials$28,511,28913%$24,804,821 $3,815,257 13%$20,989,56466,634Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$69,034,85513%$60,060,324 $27,277,204 40%$32,783,120104,073Non-GAFO Total:$188,690,891$164,161,075 $71,640,619 38% $92,520,456249,443$287$315293,716Net Inflow/ Outflow$92,520,456Net Inflow/ Outflow293,716Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $343,669,798$298,992,724 $233,556,143 68% $65,436,581454,319$514$570260,887Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:$65,436,581Net Inflow/ Outflow260,887Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$36,629,877$36,629,877 $14,391,978 39%$22,237,899222,379Motor Vehicle$90,016,810$90,016,810$0 0% $90,016,810900,168Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$13,244,870$13,244,870$89,769 1%$13,155,101131,551Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$139,891,557$139,891,557 $14,481,747 10% $125,409,810184,932$78$1001,254,098Net Inflow/ Outflow$125,409,810Net Inflow/ Outflow1,254,098All Spending Categories:$483,561,355$438,884,281 $248,037,890 51% $190,846,391 639,251 $388$4131,514,985(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow$190,846,391Net Inflow/ Outflow1,514,985(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandRLPage 20 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 125 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACERANCHO LA COSTAJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline7,0357,0707,1067,1417,1777,213178% Growth0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Population - Baseline17,72117,80817,89517,98318,07118,160439% Growth0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Persons/HH2.522.522.522.522.522.52Households - Uplift (1)7,0357,1097,1847,2597,3367,413378% Growth1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%Population - Uplift17,72117,90618,09218,28118,47118,664# Growth185187188190192943% Growth1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Median Household Income$141,373$142,907$144,458$146,026$147,611$149,213Growth1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$16,872$17,055$17,240$17,428$17,617$17,808Per HH$42,501$42,958$43,419$43,886$44,358$44,835New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$3.1$3.2$3.3$3.4$3.4Sales/ Square Foot (1)$413$413$413$413$413Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend7,6187,7817,9478,1178,29139,754Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps7,8277,8277,8277,8277,82739,13315% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF15,777(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRLPage 21 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 126 of 142 EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDINGROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBADJANUARY 2022Consumer SpendingCapacity (Demand)GapSpending CategoryTotalE-commercePer CapitaShareActual Sales$%I. All SpendingShare (3) Adjusted SalesGAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$3,443,61713%$2,995,947$4745%$6,476,953($3,481,006)(116%)Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$2,456,29813%$2,136,979$3384%$7,538,493($5,401,514)(253%)Books & Music$373,16513%$324,654$511%$944,258($619,604)(191%)Department Stores$8,852,38013%$7,701,571$1,21713%$0$7,701,571100%Office Supplies, Gift Stores$775,24113%$674,460$1071%$22,779,159($22,104,699)(3277%)Electronics/Appliances$3,309,18413%$2,878,990$4555%$4,388,661($1,509,671)(52%)Clothing & Accessories$6,304,87513%$5,485,241$8679%$12,339,975($6,854,734)(125%)Other General Merchandise$5,902,90613%$5,135,528$8128%$521,803$4,613,72590%GAFO Total:$31,417,666$27,333,369$4,32145%$54,989,302($27,655,933)(101%)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$9,738,84413%$8,472,794$1,33914%$7,710,202$762,5929%Florist$171,29413%$149,026$240%$275,833($126,807)(85%)Used Merch$353,46413%$307,514$491%$296,144$11,3704%Other Misc. Stores$2,054,33313%$1,787,270$2833%$2,135,406($348,136)(19%)Health & Personal Care$6,223,04513%$5,414,049$8569%$161,967,560($156,553,511)(2892%)Building/Garden Materials$5,840,16013%$5,080,939$8038%$28,103,996($23,023,057)(453%)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$14,104,09713%$12,270,564$1,94020%$1,995,757$10,274,80784%Non-GAFO Total:$38,485,237$33,482,156$5,29355%$202,484,898($169,002,742)(505%)Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store:$69,902,903$60,815,526$9,614100%$257,474,200($196,658,674)(281%)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$7,759,641$7,759,641$1,22727%$7,195,989$563,6527%Motor Vehicle$18,779,194$18,779,194$2,96964%$1,989,512$16,789,68289%Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$2,585,510$2,585,510$4099%$0$2,585,510100%Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total:$29,124,345$29,124,345$4,604100%$9,185,501$19,938,84468%Total:$99,027,248$89,939,871$14,217100%$266,659,701($176,719,830)(196%)(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)Note: Gray = categories with spending gap(3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US censusNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade areaSource: ESRI21690.00 Retail Demand: GapRRPage 22 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 127 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPSROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBADJANUARY 2022I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand PotentialInflow/ OutflowUnfulfilledConsumer SpendingInflow/ OutflowExisting Current Target Retail SpaceConsumer E-commerceActualSales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF)Spending CategoriesDemandShare Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $1333/SF GAFO (1)(A)(B)(A - B)Furniture$3,443,61713%$2,995,947 $6,476,953 188%($3,481,006)(3,607)Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books$2,456,29813%$2,136,979 $7,538,493 307%($5,401,514)(5,597)Books & Music$373,16513%$324,654$944,258 253%($619,604)(642)Department Stores$8,852,38013%$7,701,571$0 0%$7,701,5717,981Office Supplies, Gift Stores$775,24113%$674,460 $22,779,159 2938%($22,104,699)(22,906)Electronics/Appliances$3,309,18413%$2,878,990 $4,388,661 133%($1,509,671)(1,564)Clothing & Accessories$6,304,87513%$5,485,241 $12,339,975 196%($6,854,734)(7,103)Other General Merchandise$5,902,90613%$5,135,528$521,803 9%$4,613,7254,781GAFO Total:$31,417,666$27,333,369 $54,989,302 175%($27,655,933)58,474$940$965(28,659)Net Inflow/ Outflow($27,655,933)Net Inflow/ Outflow(28,659)Non-GAFOEating & Drinking Places (Restaurants)$9,738,84413%$8,472,794 $7,710,202 79%$762,592268Florist$171,29413%$149,026$275,833 161%($126,807)(44)Used Merch$353,46413%$307,514$296,144 84%$11,3704Other Misc. Stores$2,054,33313%$1,787,270 $2,135,406 104%($348,136)(122)Health & Personal Care$6,223,04513%$5,414,049 $161,967,560 2603%($156,553,511)(54,931)Building/Garden Materials$5,840,16013%$5,080,939 $28,103,996 481%($23,023,057)(8,078)Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores)$14,104,09713%$12,270,564 $1,995,757 14%$10,274,8073,605Non-GAFO Total:$38,485,237$33,482,156 $202,484,898 526%($169,002,742)71,628$2,827$2,850(59,299)Net Inflow/ Outflow($169,002,742)Net Inflow/ Outflow(59,299)Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $69,902,903$60,815,526$257,474,200 368%($196,658,674)130,102$1,979$1,908(87,958)Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending:($196,658,674)Net Inflow/ Outflow(87,958)Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-StoreGas Stations$7,759,641$7,759,641 $7,195,989 93%$563,6523,047Motor Vehicle$18,779,194$18,779,194 $1,989,512 11% $16,789,68290,755Other Non-Store Retailers (2)$2,585,510$2,585,510$0 0%$2,585,51013,976Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total:$29,124,345$29,124,345 $9,185,501 32% $19,938,84454,206$169$185107,778Net Inflow/ Outflow$19,938,844Net Inflow/ Outflow107,778All Spending Categories:$99,027,248$89,939,871 $266,659,701 269%($176,719,830)184,308 $1,447$1,33319,819(1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and OtherNet Inflow/ Outflow($176,719,830)Net Inflow/ Outflow19,819(2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales)(3) Estimated by % share of consumer demand spending totalNote: Gray = categories with spending gapSources: ESRI; CoStarNote: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandRRPage 23 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 128 of 142D EXHIBIT III-2RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACEROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBADJANUARY 2022Projected2021 - Conditions2021202220232024202520262026I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable DemandPopulation and Income Growth:Households - Baseline2,3972,4412,4862,5322,5792,627230% Growth1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%Population - Baseline6,3266,4536,5836,7156,8506,988662% Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Persons/HH2.642.642.652.652.662.66Households - Uplift (1)2,3972,4772,5612,6462,7352,827430% Growth3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%Population - Uplift6,3266,5496,7797,0187,2647,520# Growth2232302392472561,194% Growth3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%Median Household Income$115,867$119,036$122,292$125,637$129,073$132,603Growth2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):Per Capita$9,614$9,877$10,147$10,424$10,709$11,002Per HH$25,372$26,107$26,863$27,641$28,442$29,267New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM)$2.2$2.3$2.5$2.6$2.8Sales/ Square Foot (1)$1,333$1,333$1,333$1,333$1,333Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend1,6491,7531,8651,9832,1099,359Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps-2,639-2,639-2,639-2,639-2,639-13,19415% Penetration of Current Spending GapsAnnual SF(767)(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRRPage 24 of 24The Concord GroupDRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 129 of 142 Newport Beach 369 San Miguel Dr, #265 Newport Beach, CA 92660 (949) 717-6450 Los Angeles 10000 Washington Blvd, #7113 Culver City, CA 90232 (949) 717-6450 San Francisco 251 Kearny Sr, 6th Floor San Francisco, CA 94108 (415) 397-5490 Austin 201 W 5th St, 11th Floor #21 Austin, TX 78701 (512) 287-4530 Atlanta 725 Ponce De Leon Ave, #315 Atlanta, GA 30306 (404) 879-5000 122DRAFTJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 130 of 142 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS 2023 DRAFT Exhibit 3 Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 131 of 142 {city of Carlsbad __..::::::; City of Carlsbad The Economic Development Strategic Plan is a roadmap that will guide the City’s economic development activities for the next fi ve years. The Strategy comes at a critical time for the City and the community. Given the pandemic, subsequent recovery, market pressures, and international confl ict, it is more important than ever to identify Carlsbad’s economic development strategies and to prepare for future challenges. The Strategic Plan provides fl exible and agile guidance for Carlsbad to address City Council’s goal of economic vitality: fostering a vibrant community. This Economic Development Strategic Actions document accompanies the Strategic Plan as a guide for the tactical actions that will build toward achieving the overarching goals and objectives in the Strategic Plan. The Strategic Actions will allow the City to reprioritize or realign strategies as economic conditions chage or if priorities shift throughout the tenure of the Strategic Plan. While the Innovation and Economic Development Department (I&ED) is the lead on these efforts, economic development is collaborative, and is not limited to one department, group, or organization. The Strategy and Strategic Actions document thoughtfully involve multiple City departments, local and regional partners, workforce and talent, residents, and the broad and diverse businesses that support the community. As such, the Strategic Actions are intended to assist the City in aligning its program priorities to match the market opportunities identified in the Strategic Plan. While the Strategic Actions document assigns timeframes to each tactic, it does not make staffing recommendations regarding the implementation of these programs. I&ED is a small, but mighty department, however, with its limited economic development staff, it may not be possible to implement all of the proposed actions without additional staff and resources. The Strategic Actions document assumes that new activities and programs would be phased in over several years and acknowledges that many of the proposed tactics involve activities that the City is already undertaking. It also provides an initial indication of cost, using a range of $ - $$$. This range will be further clarified to a more-specific cost estimate for each tactic and updated on an annual basis. The City of Carlsbad believes in transparency and accountability, and as such, staff will regularly update the Economic Development Subcommittee on the progress made on the goals and objectives in the Strategic Plan and Strategic Actions document. | 2 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONSJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 132 of 142 __..:::::::; City of Carlsbad Economic Development Strategic Plan Goals GOAL 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. GOAL 2: Develop Workforce and Attract Talent Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. GOAL 3: Grow and Support Key Industries Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad’s economy. GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 3 | DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 133 of 142 Goal 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.1: Educate the public on the permitting and entitlement process and provide City staff with the knowledge and resources they need to provide such information Strategic Action 1.1.1: Celebrate staff’s role in economic development of Carlsbad and continue to educate on how their work can lead to success and economic health in the City. High Year 1 $ I&ED Everyone is Economic Development training Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.1.2: Continually review the planning application and permitting procedures to identify process improvements. High Ongoing $ CD Audit of procedures Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Objective 1.2: Provide a positive customer service experience during the permitting process. Strategic Action 1.2.1: Evaluate creation of a one stop shop permit center that allows customers to access resources related to the permitting process in one location. Medium Year 3 $$ CD Consolidate digital resources; Conduct assessment of physical space Percentage of participants that rate programs as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.2: Continue the implementation of the Customer Self Service program within the permitting application system, Energov, to increase the number of applications available online. High Year 1 $$ CD Number of online permits available Percentage increase in online applications Strategic Action 1.2.3: Increase ability for customers to track the status of their projects online. High Year 3 $$ CD Number of online permits available Percentage increase in online applications Strategic Action 1.2.4: Promote the pre-application program to help identify major issues early in the entitlement process. High Year 1 $ CD Pre-app information on website and bulletin Percentage increase in pre-application Strategic Action 1.2.5: Enhance the Welcome to Carlsbad Program for new businesses by providing information and resources on the pre-application program, permitting process, and business resources. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Create bulletins with resource information Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.6: Create an option for applicants to request project resolution issue meetings to resolve high priority, time-sensitive issues with senior level Development Services staff. Medium Year 4 $ CD Creation of project resolution team Number of applicants that rate service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.7: Evaluate a potential economic development priority project designation for planning and permitting review that could included expedited review, enhanced communication and/or other allowances. Low Year 5 $ CD Identify priority projects; Identify options to expedite Percent decrease in permitting review process | 4 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONSJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 134 of 142 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.2: Continued Strategic Action 1.2.8: Create a program to give planning and building staff better insight into operations in key industries, thereby giving a better understanding of development need. Low Year 4 $ I&ED Creation of training program Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.9: Evaluate potential solutions to give a clearer understanding of zoning prior to submittal. (OpenCounter) Medium Year 4 $$ CD Identify and create educational resrouces Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.2.10: Utilizing Energov, track turnaround times for planning applications and permits to identify areas to increase efficiency. Medium Year 1 $ CD Establish current turnaround times; Identify targets Percentage decrease in turn around times Objective 1.3: Empower small businesses and entrepreneurs with resources they need to be successful in Carlsbad Strategic Action 1.3.1: Create Small Business and Entrepreneur Symposium on basic and critical issues for small business owners. Topics could include marketing, social media, finance, human resources, access to capital, technology, and more. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Partner with business organizations to create Symposium Percentage of participants that rate event as good or great Strategic Action 1.3.2: Partner with business organizations to develop a shop local initiative to encourage patronage at Carlsbad businesses. Low Mid $ I&ED Create shop local program Number of participants Strategic Action 1.3.3: Expand partnerships with entrepreneur support organizations and regional business partners to connect entrepreneurs with resources, networks, and capital. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Identify entrepreneur support organizations Percentage increase in number of entrepreneurs Strategic Action 1.3.4: In partnership with the local business organizations, hold a Carlsbad Employer Open House to showcase local businesses and connect them with potential employees. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Hold Open House event Percentage of participants that rate event as good or great Strategic Action 1.3.5: Develop a Small Business Liaison Program that includes a dedicated liaison to resolve issues with the small business and entrepreneur community. Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Identify / add staff person to manage program Percentage of small businesses rating program as good or excellent CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 5 | DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 135 of 142 | 6 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.4: Embrace the changing nature of work and what that may look like for Carlsbad businesses Strategic Action 1.4.1: Through a data driven approach, consider additional flexibility in the development code to allow for more agility as business trends change. Low Year 4 $ CD Identify outdated planning practices and codes Percentage increase in customers rating service as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.4.2: Evaluate signage requirements for businesses.Low Year 3 $ CD Identify potential outdated signage practices and codes Percentage decrease in number of complaints Objective 1.5: Increase engagement and support for women, minority, veteran, disabled-owned businesses Strategic Action 1.5.1: Partner with the Employer Assistance and Resource Network on Disability Inclusion (EARN) to create resources for disabled-owned businesses. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Create partnership Percentage increase in number of disabled-owned businesses assisted Strategic Action 1.5.2: In conjunction with regional partners such as SBA, SCORE, and SBDC, offer trainings specifically geared towards supporting women, minority, veteran, and disabled-owned businesses. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Creation of additional trainings Percentage increase in attendance; percentage of participants that rate programs as good or excellent Strategic Action 1.5.3: Celebrate women, minority, veteran, and disabled-owned businesses by acknowledging and creating events around: Women’s Small Business Month, Veterans Small Business Week, Small Business Week, Black Business Month, Hispanic Heritage Month, etc. High Year 1 $ I&ED Creation of events promoting inclusivity Percentage increase in number of minority owned businesses celebrated publicly Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 136 of 142 Goal 2: Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.1: Enhance workforce training and talent attraction resources to support Carlsbad’s key industries by partnering with K-12 school districts, regional higher educational institutions, and regional cities to support talent development and linkages with key industries Strategic Action 2.1.1: Enhance Life In Action to incorporate partnerships with hospitality, tourism, and entertainment sectors. High Year 1 $ I&ED Identify additional companies from key sectors to incorporate Percentage increase in participation of key sectors Strategic Action 2.1.2: Collaborate with regional partners such as SOCAL, Mira Costa College, TCI, and local businesses for workforce training for middle school, high school, post-secondary students, and transitioning adults. Medium Year 2 $$ I&ED Number of regional partners; Number of students Percentage increase in local students employed in local jobs Strategic Action 2.1.3: Enhance and promote educational workshops provided by the Library, Parks and Recreation and other resources that provide skill development to Carlsbad’s workforce. Medium Year 1 $ LIB P&R Number of educational workshops Percentage increase in number of participants in City programs Strategic Action 2.1.4: Partner with K-12, school districts, and higher education institutions to enhance their existing programs that provide technical and soft skills to entry level employees. High Year 3 $ I&ED Number of K-12 schools partnered with Percentage increase in local students employed in local jobs Strategic Action 2.1.5: Facilitate partnerships between Carlsbad’s businesses and education partners to identify skills necessary to obtain employment in high wage industries. High Year 3 $ I&ED Number of partnerships Percentage increase in local students employed in local jobs Objective 2.2: Create a more connected City and capitalize on existing digital tools to promote digital equity Strategic Action 2.2.1: Conduct initial study for outdoor Wi-Fi at City facilities and other critical areas for the public. Medium Year 1 $$ IT Iniital study completed Percentage increase of available outdoor wi-fi locations Strategic Action 2.2.2: Promote the City’s existing digital tools to connect residents, businesses, and tourists to resources the City offers. High Year 1 $$ COM Number of promotions Percentage increase of residents and businesses with access to high speed internet CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 7 | DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 137 of 142 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.3: Through the implementation of the Housing Element programs, address housing issues while promoting economic vitality by providing the workforce additional housing opportunities to be able to both live and work in Carlsbad Strategic Action 2.3.1 Evaluate partnership with local businesses to enhance the current Down Payment Assistance Program. Medium Year 1 $$$ HOUSE Number of businesses participating; Number of residents participating in Down Payment Assistance Program Percentage increase in down payment assistance provided Objective 2.4: Through the implementation of the Sustainable Mobility Plan programs, mindfully create opportunities to promote economic vitality by providing the Carlsbad workforce additional mobility options Strategic Action 2.4.1: Evaluate micro-mobility options to make Carlsbad more connected and accessible. High Year 1 $$$ ES Conduct feasibility studies of micro-mobility options Percentage increase in public transit riders | 8 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONSJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 138 of 142 Goal 3: Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad’s economy. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 3.1: Evaluate opportunities to improve mobility for visitors, residents, and the workforce. Strategic Action 3.1.1: Evaluate micro-mobility options in the Village and coastline to make Carlsbad more connected and accessible. High Year 1 $$$ ES Identify and evaluate micro-mobility options Percentage increase in number of people utilizing public transit Strategic Action 3.1.2: Use data to identify specific mobility issues and select projects from the City’s Sustainable Mobility Plan that will result in a higher quality of life for Carlsbad residents. High Year 3 $$$ I&ED ES Identify and evaluate micro-mobility options Percentage increase in number of people utilizing public transit Objective 3.2: Connect businesses in key sectors with data and resources they need to thrive in Carlsbad. Strategic Action 3.2.1: Use business data and recent business survey to assess and engage with industry clusters to develop support for their expansion, attraction, and retention. Medium Year 1 $I&ED Continue to survey businesses bi-annually Number of businesses that have expanded or relocated Strategic Action 3.2.2: Utilize partnership with Innovate 78 to connect Carlsbad businesses with regional resources. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Continue Innovate 78 Partnership Number of businesses connected to regional resources Objective 3.3: Assist businesses in growing industries or sectors, such as health care, life sciences, and the innovation economy, which are looking to relocate or expand in Carlsbad. Strategic Action 3.3.1: Promote the City’s business locator website to businesses looking to move to Carlsbad, developers, brokers, and investors. Medium Year 1 $ I&ED Creation of promotional materials Percentage increase in number of businesses utilizing locator. Strategic Action 3.3.2: Host industry advisory groups with leaders in key business clusters, with a specific emphasis on the innovation economy. Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Host events Percentage of participants rating program as good or excellent. Strategic Action 3.3.3: Host commercial real estate forums to create connections with resources. Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Host events Percentage of participants rating program as good or excellent. Objective 3.4: Support the needs of our residents while balancing the needs of our businesses in tourism, hospitality, and entertainment. Strategic Action 3.4.1: Continue to support Carlsbad business organizations that maintain the tourism economy in Carlsbad. High Year 1 $ I&ED Continue regular meetings with business organizations Percentage increase in tourism revenue Strategic Action 3.4.2: Partner with local universities and colleges to create workforce development opportunities in the hospitality, tourism, and entertainment sectors. High Year 4 $ I&ED Develop partnerships Number of connections that result in employment CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 9 | DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 139 of 142 Goal 4: Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities. Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.1: Build upon the successes of the communication efforts in the City to promote the City’s economic development programs. Strategic Action 4.1.1: Develop a communications plan specific towards economic development efforts and celebrating the business community with consistent and cohesive messaging. Medium Year 3 $I&ED COM Develop Comm Plan Percentage increase in businesses reached Strategic Action 4.1.2: Incorporate business and economic development activities into the weekly City Manager newsletter, City calendar, and social media to foster a sense of pride in local businesses. High Year 1 $I&ED COM Incorporate business activities into newsletter Percentage increase in businesses reached Strategic Action 4.1.3: Consider developing a separate economic development newsletter focused on business and workforce development resources. Low Year 3 $I&ED COM Creation of ED newsletter Percentage increase in businesses reached Strategic Action: 4.1.4: Update Economic Development website and Doing Business in Carlsbad website to include links to programs and regional partners and resources. High Year 1 $ I&ED Update websites Percentage increase in businesses reached Strategic Action 4.1.5: Expand the opt-in text messaging system related to economic development and other City activities. Low Year 4 $ IT Evaluate feasibility of expanding system Percentage increase in participants Strategic Action 4.1.6: Develop a business spotlight program to highlight local businesses. Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Develop spotlight program Number of businesses highlighted Strategic Action 4.1.7: Develop and promote bulletins and flow charts for common permitting application types. High Year 2 $ CD Develop bulletins and flow charts Percentage increase in rating permitting experience ad good or excellent Strategic Action 4.1.8: Develop and promote “how to” videos for select permitting processes. High Year 3 $COM CD Creation of videos Decrease in number of complaints Strategic Action 4.1.9: Create a digital library of free business resources. Medium Year 3 $I&ED COM Creation of digital library Percentage increase in numberof users accessing information Strategic Action 4.1.10: Create a How to do Business Guide to assist small businesses and entrepreneurs in opening a business in Carlsbad. High Year 2 $ I&ED Creation of Guide Percentage increase in rating permitting experience ad good or excellent | 10 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONSJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 140 of 142 Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.2: Enhance placemaking opportunities to strengthen the connection between people and the places they share. Strategic Action 4.2.1: Partner with local businesses to participate in and promote the City’s volunteer program to activate public spaces and foster a sense of connection. Medium Year 5 $ COM Increase awareness of volunteer program Percentage of businesses participating Strategic Action 4.2.2: Provide a digital platform for local businesses to promote their volunteer opportunities, such as beach cleanups. Low Year 4 $ COM Creation of platform Percentage of businesses participating Strategic Action 4.2.3: Utilize the City’s social media platforms to showcase Carlsbad’s sense of place and community. High Year 1 $ COM Increase engagement on social media platforms Percentage increase in the number of Carlsbad tags in social media Strategic Action 4.2.4: Consider expanding the City’s social media footprint into additional platforms, such as TikTok, to target different segments of the Carlsbad population. Medium Year 2 $ COM Evaluate additional social media platforms Percentage increase in social media engagement Objective 4.3: Leverage city-owned assets and right of way to create a sense of place Strategic Action 4.3.1: Continue to celebrate local artists by enhancing the City’s Public Art Collection. Medium Year 2 $$ LIB Evaluate options to enhance program Percentage increase of number of artists celebrated Strategic Action 4.3.2: Expand the City's parklet program to create additional green space and community gathering opportunities. Medium Year 3 $$$ PW Evaluate options to create additional green space Percentage increase in square footage of parklet sapce Strategic Action 4.3.3: Partner with local business organizations to implement placemaking strategies such as holiday lighting and a banner program to enhance the sense of place and community. Medium Year 2 $$ I&ED Determine locations and options Percentage increase in number of visitors to identified areas CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 11 | DRAFT Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 141 of 142 | 12 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONSJan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 142 of 142 {city of Carlsbad Ana Alarcon From: Sent: To: Erik Bruvold <ebruvold@sdnedc.org> Tuesday, January 10, 2023 1 :52 PM City Clerk All Receive -Agenda Item # J_ For the Information of the: CIHCOUNCR / p:.~9J-~5e "cc ACM :_ DCM (3) ✓ Subject: Item 7 (economic development strategic Plan) on tonight's (1/10) Council Agenda Please provide these comments to the city council. On behalf of the San Diego North Economic Development Council, I want to urge the council to adopt the economic development strategic plan. Carlsbad and the entirety of North County are moving into a new phase of our economic history. Nearly all of North County's business parks are now developed and vacancy rates are at historic lows. Very little job growth is going to come from attracting new businesses that are looking for green field opportunities. Instead, most of North County's growth will come from existing companies expanding and new entrepreneurial start-ups that grow into existing space. In addition, economic prosperity is likely also to be partially driven by workers and firms untethered from physical space as the pandemic ushered in new forms of work and the opportunity to connect with others in a company from anywhere in the world. The new strategic plan leans head on into those changes. It places support for start-ups, workforce development and placemaking front and center. It highlights Carlsbad's world class quality of life as a key driver of economic success. And it acknowledges that placemaking will be central to the city's ability to continue to attract and retain talent. The plan is well thought out, collaborative and reflects a willingness to engage with a diverse set of stakeholders. On behalf of the entire council I want to urge the Council to adopt the plan and to continue to support the work of the economic development office at the City. W. Erik Bruvold Chief Executive Officer San Diego North Economic Development Council 100 East San Marcos Blvd, Suite 400 San Marcos, CA 92069 ebruvold@sdnedc.org 760-510-5919 (office) 858-361-1540 (cell) 1