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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-04-15; City Council; 6227; AGREEMENT FOR PROVISION OF CARRILLO RANCH ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS\ l i\GENDA CITY OF CARLSBAD INITIAL Dept. Hd. DATE: APRIL 15, 1980 C ty, ___________ ..;..._ ________________ _ L Atty. VF/3 DEPARTMENT: ___ P_LA_f_m_I_N_G _______________ C ty. Mgr .,0 __ ,...._-..,,..~---- (1.; 2J SUBJECT: AGREEMENT FOR PROVISION OF CARRILLO RANCH ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS STATEMENT OF THE MATTER A Master Plan for the Carrillo Ranch area was adopted in 1972. The Master Plan became non-conforming when the Planned Community (P-C) zone was redrafted in .1973. The Carlsbad Planning Moratorium was amended last year to allow for the processing of the city's non-conforming Master Plans. As a result, the owners of the Carrillo Ranch property are in the process of .su9mitting a plan which conforms to city standards. It was determined by staff that such a submittal would require preparation of an economic and fiscal analysis report. In January of 1980, staff distributed Requests for Proposals (RFP'S) seeking a consultant to prepare said analysis for this property. By the deadline period of February 18, 1980, the Planning Department had received the following bids: The Newport Economics Group Economic Research Associates Levander Company $18,500 $20,000 $24,000 -$28,000 Staff reviewed each of the proposals and determined that all the consultants had excellent qualifications for the preparation of economic impact reports. Because of a lower bid, staff is prepared to recommend Newport Economics Group. EXHIBITS Resolution No. f.JJJSI , approving an agreement with Daon Southwest Resolution No. (nlS~, approving an agreement with the Newport Economics Group. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the City Council adopt the attached resolutions authorizing the Mayor to enter into agreements with the consulting firm of the Newport Economics Group for the preparation of an economic and fiscal analysis fo~ the proposed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan Revision, and DAON Southwest, for provision of payment for consultant costs incurred in preparation of the economic and fiscal analysis report for the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan Revision. Council Action: 4-15-80 Council a~opted Resolution 6151, approving an agreement with Daon Southwest; and adopted Resolution 6152, approving an agreement with the Newport Economics Group. · ' ( f _,.\(11'" ,, \· .. j_ 2 3 4 5 6 RESOLUTION N0. __ 6_1~_1_ A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD AND DAON SOUTHWEST FOR THE PAYMENT OF CONSULTANT COSTS INCURRED FROM SERVICES INCLUDING THE PREPARATION OF AN ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS OF THE RANCHO CARRILLO · MASTER PLAN REVISION. 7 The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, does 8 hereby resolve as follows: 9 1. That certain agreement between the City of Carlsbad 10 and Daon Southwest for the payment of consultant costs incurred 11 from services involving the preparation of an economic and fiscal 12 analysis of the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan, a copy of which is 13 attached hereto marked Exhibit "l" ~nd made a part thereof, is 14 hereby approved. 15 2. That the Mayor of.the City of Carlsbad is hereby 16 authorized and directed to execute said agreement for and on 17 behalf of the City of Carlsbad. 18 PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the 19 City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, held on the 20 21 · 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 15th day of __ A~p_r~i_l ___ ·, 1980, by the following vote, to wit: AYES: NOES: Councilmen Packatd, Lewis, Anear and Councilwomen Casler and Kulchin None ABSENT: None -RONALD C. PACKARD, Mayor ATTEST: (SEAL) ( ( L, AGREEMENT THIS AGREEMENT is made this day of -----------' 1980, between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a municipal corporation of the State of _California, hereinafter referred to as CITY, and DAON Southwest hereinafter referred to as APPLICANT~ RECITALS: WHEREAS, The Applicant has filed with the City a request for approval of a proposed project identified as the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan, and WHEREAS, The City has determined that its 6urrent staff . lacks the expertis~ to perform the research and analysis involved with the pr,eparation of an economic and fiscal analy~is report for the said project; and WHEREAS, the City has determined that to proceed with the· processing of the proposed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan it will be necessary to hire a consultant to provide the city with the economic and fiscal analysis which is required as part of the Master Plan. NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the covenants and conditions hereinafter contained, it is agreed as follows: 1. The City will engage a consultant to perform the necessary work in the preparation of an economic EXHIBIT "l" to Resolution No. 6151 ( ( and fiscal analysis report for that area more particularly depicted upon a site map attached hereto marked Exhibit "A" and incorporated herein by reference. 2. It is understood that the Consultant services shall conform to the Proposal attached hereto as Exhibit 11B11 and incorporated herein by reference, and may require: (a) Research and Analysis; (b) Communication with the city staff; (c) Written reports; and (d) Such other data as may be necessary to properly evaluate the proposed project. 3. The Applicant shall pay to the City the actual cost incurred by the Consultant in completing said dutie?, that such costs shall be based on the costs set forth in Exhibit 11 B". The Applicant will advance the sum of $18,500 as payment on account for the cost Consul- tant service. In the event it appears, as the work progresses, that said sum will not be sufficient, the City will notify the Applicant. No further work will be performed by the Consultant incurring an obiigation beyond the amount advanced without an appropriate amendment.to this Agreement. If the actual cost of preparing the report is less than the Applicant's advance, any surplus will be refunded to Applicant by City. -2- l , ( ( 4. It is understood that the Consultarit shall be an independent contractor of the City; that the Appli- cant agrees to permit the Consultant to enter up~n his property and to perform all work -thereon as the Consultant deems necessary to complete th~ said ser- vices. It is agreed that the Applicant at no time will interfere with the Consultant in the performance of such work or attempt to influence such Consultant during the course of his investigation and report. -3- ( ( IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties-hereto have executed this agreement on the day and year first above written. ATTEST: Al? R~TO FORM: / I ,' Assistant City Attorney CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal Corporation of the State of California APPLICANT: By ----------------, -4- ' . ( ( OCEANSIDE p.Oll, _,_E __ VISTA llMl1 .L__ .. r·· · ' 1. rniao1_L ·---·--, COUNTY] I "'rn::t; J < ·f;~;ytM,~J{I ---r -·_ ,t._:;.=---'- ··----- E-a<H\'3\T A 4o A~rc.c.t\\c.."' t A Pl.ANN[O cm11.◄UNrTY nv: CAnLSOAO. CALIFOnNIA 1l£ WOODWARD COMf-'l\l~l[S, TI!(' MEISTtn COMPANY,-t-lC. & OAON SOUTHWEST SAN MARCOS ~~ TI-E . \-\~ R.Af\J\Jf\G . C'OCB\rrrn RANCHO CARRILLO ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS A RESEARCH PROPOSAL FEBRUARY 1980 Prepared for: CITY OF CARLSBAD 1200 ELM AVENUE CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA 92008 Prepared by: · ·THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS GROUP 500 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 350 Nl;WP0RT BEACH, CA 92660 (714) 640-0755 ( E -·n V · {'1 ~ Iv[ I 7 lJ1\ XH\~lT B ~ tlJ !ii _j_ i ~ LJ -lo A~r«.e.Mt-hf -FEB 15 1980 CITY Or CARLSBAD Pl~nning Ct~:1.r::rnent February 14, 1980 Mr. James C. Hagaman Planning Director City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue ( Carlsbad, California 92008 Dear Mr. Hagaman: Enclosed is our proposal for the Rancho Carrillo Economic and Fiscal Impact Report. The scope of the study and ·the methodology parallel the Carlsbad Oaks study \'le performed in 1977. We look forward to discussing this proposal with you in detail. Sincerely,a jj.'; .. 1 :'It"'~ .v 't . !~-J /.l l /' -~ .,~ .. ·. (t,~l,-/.//. • ..... ,,;c,;·'..'~•---...., Roberu--' J. Dunnam President RJD/mb Enclosure -1(,00 IX)V[ smrn SUITr 3:>0. Nrwl'orn R[ACH. CA 92660. (714) 8510892 ( TABLE OF CONTENTS . INTRODUCTION .......... . •• PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM: Phase I -Economic Impact Analysis. Phase II -Municipal Economic ·Impact Analysis . TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATED COSTS CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUilIES ( . . . l 5 8 . . • . • . . l 3 . . . . • . • • 14 I I . I : ( ( rr~TRODUCTION The primary object·ives of the requested analysis are to test the economic and fiscal feasibility of a .Master Plan for Rancho Carrillo. Additiohally, .the study methodology for this report will provide a methodology and data base v,h·ich will be applicable to similar community analysis. The Newport Economics Group has, during the past 8 years, conducted 60 studies related to this type of feasibility analysis for the public and private sector. To provide the type of meaningful results desired, there are a number of key requirements essential for the study. Examples include the following: A. Economic Analysi~ 1. A Sophisticated Land Use Forecast In the dynamics of the urban growth scenarios 0,7 Southern California, meaningful ~and use forecasts are particularly important. All else- being equal, it is apparent that the accuracy will fluctuate in an inverse ratio to the time span covered. However, it is important to establish ranges of probable activity wherein one may set confi- dence limits as to the actual occurrences. The key issue 0111, of course, be the rates of absorption for various land use categories on the property. For each, a most probable absorption must be ac- companied by a meaningful range indicating the scope of possibility under varying economic conditions. 2. The Implications of Error ·Following the determination of high and low sets of probable activity, it is particularly important-to unders~and implications to the public facility fea$ibility should variations in the absorption rates occur. ·' ( ( · In other 1vords the 11 what if11 question series must be ana·lyzed in relation to the effect on the decision-makin9 process for the City of Carl s bad . 3; The Importance of Land Use Balance Assuming the probability of varying absorption rates, the second . major concept relates to the reasonableness and econonrlc balance of the end product. A number of tests relative to economic com- patibility should be applied carefully. 4. The Synthesis of Theoretical Demand Versus Actual Absorption The land use forecast must c~refully relate the elements of potential, theoretica·1 demand to determine potential land uses under varying sets of circumstances versus a detailed analysis of all actual absorption for land uses throughout the region. Those elements relative to long term trends, cyclical forces, irregular influences and --often of great importance --the intangible element of the public's attitude must be considered. 5. The Importance of Market Strategi A key element in overall absorption relates to the developer 1s market strategy. The goals to be utilized, the scope of effort to achieve those goals, the degree of aggressiveness and :the level of sophistica- . tion can all be key elements in determining the final outcome. B. Fiscal Analysis l. The Strategic Importance of Cost Allocation Methodology One of the most important and often the most problematical elements of a fiscal impact study .relates to cost allocation. Generally, the issues of revenue assignment are clear cut. _The question of costs can be a different matter. Typically, municipal accounting systems do not provide the level of detail required to accurately assign costs to relatively small units of the city. Special district :da~a may_ be similar. It is particularly important to consult extensively with . . ( city staff, to outline clearly the alternative methodologies available and to insure agreement on the part of all persons in- volved relative to the system to be used. 2. The Marginal Cost Concept The most commonplace methodology for fiscal impact studies assigns prevailing average costs to ex"isting sectors of the community as well as planned, new areas. Often, the economies or diseconomies of scale tend to create a significant gap between prevailing average costs and true marginal costs. During ·the past few years, municipal costs have ris.en substantially more than in proportion to the rate of growth of many cities involved. Inflation and upgraded services are two key elements which have brought this about. Therefore, it is particularly important to-disaggregate budgeted cost increases to · thoroughly understand the probable real costs of serving added areas throughout a community. 3. Sales Tax Allocation Methodology While most revenues may be assigned without difficulty to appropriate land uses, the sales tax poses a question of philosophy. Typically, such revenues are assigned to the commercial sector --a system which does not allow for adjustment in the event of added residential develop- ment without added commercial. Similarly, if all such revenues are assigned to the residential sector, the addition of new commercial -could not be accounted for in the revenue model. On the basis of long experience, TNG believes that 'the origin of the funds should dictate ~he placement of credit. That is, sales tax revenuei derived from expenditures of city residents should be assigned back to their sector. Revenues spent by visitors, tourists or any other non-_residents should ·be assigned to the commercial sector. By this methodology, the system will allow for increases in any sector of the economy without dis- tortion. / ( ( 4. The Cost Versus Qua1ity of Available Service~ It is mandatory to initially estab"lish a cost of existing services in relation to their relative level of quality. A realistic appraisal must be made to determine whethe_r prevailing costs are appropriat~ for the assignment to new, developing areas. Considerations may relate to comparisons v-1ith comparable communities, discussions with staff, planning commission or city council, or comparison with a set of traditionally desired standards. I .... ( PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM The following paragraphs will provide a brief outline of the key elements involved in the requested work program. PHASE I ~ ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT The initial phase of the study will involv8 an analysis and projection of the economic impact of the property on the local and regional housing. markets. Based on the projected jemand, supply, market strategy and other key factors, an annualized absorption for the specified land uses will be determined. -A. Housing l, Demand -An analysis and projection of population/households, age, sex factors, income, elT'ployrnent, propensity to purchase versus rent and rela·ted fcicte-rs in the North County arc:a and the Rancho Carrillo sector. Of particular importance will be market segmentation · relative to th;~ demand for primary housing, second homes, resort housing and retirement units. The end product of this analysis will be schedules indicating probable absorption by type, density, occupancy status, general size and related factors. 2. Supply~ An Analysis of present and probable future projects similar and/or competitive in scope to the proj~ct. Detailed analyses will be made of location, probable offering, timing, price rnnges and related. 3. Market Strategy -An analysis of the probable corporate goals, -degree of aggressiveness, strength of merchandising, degree of sophistication and o~her factors which will determine probable relative strength in the marketplace for Rancho Carrillo . ( 4.· Conclusion -A series of projections for the project in terms of ranges under varying alternative assumptions as to the absorption rates for each type of planned housing project throughout the development. Again, it is important to emphasize the use of the most prob able projection versus the cbnc~ivable highs and lows which could occur under varying economic conditions. B. · Cormnercial Facilities l. Demand -An analysis and projection of all economic elements relative to the demand for commercial space .including retail, restaurants, service facilities. and general purpose or medical/ dental office space. Indicators to be examined would include resident and visitor purchasing power, projected distribution of retail/service expenditures, office-related employment expansion and other factors. The end product of this phase of the study would be an annualized schedule of demand for space in each of the relevant commercial categories. 2. Supply -An analysis o* the present and anticipated future supply of competitive facilities in terms of location, land use mix, evident strength and impact on the property. 3 •. Market Strategl -A determination of the apparent strategy to be utilized by Rancho Carrillo management to merchandise ccmmercial facilities. The aggressiveness and degree of sophistication in- volved will have a critical impact on the potential absorption of these land uses. •·◄. Conclusion -Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a schedule of probable absorption for each of the proposed commercial land uses at Rancho Carrillo would be prepared with a most probable level versus . -the potential highs and lows . -6- ( ·· C. · Recreational Facilities l. Demand An analysis and projection of economic factors pertinent to the demand for p·1 anned recreational fad l i ti es. Key factors will concern projected participation rates among residents in addition to the potential for non-resident patronage (as deemed desirable). (A determinant only if non-~esident participation is planned.) 2. Supply~ Analysis of the present and anticipated future supply of competitive facilities in terms of lpcation, market strength, land available and total impact on the property. 3. Market Strategy -Planned operating methods, whether by the community associatfon, private group, semi-private or other should be consi,dered. 4. Conclusion~ Based on the foregoing sets of studies, recommen- dations as to the appropriate mix of recreational facilities would be made -including phasing and land requirements. < ( · Pl-lASE II ~ MUNICIPAL. ECONOMIC IMPACT ANJ\LYSIS This phase of th2 study will analyze in detail the economic and fiscal impact of the plan. First, will be considered the service levels and costs) followed by capital expenditu_re requirements and revenues. A. Service Requirements/Costs l. Quantitative Factors -The initial phase of this section of the report will involve an analysis of the physical requirements for service to the new area and the cost levels involved, as follows: a. Trend Analysis -The municipal and various special district · budgets will be analyzed over time to determine appropriate per unit (per acre/per d1velling unit) costs for varying sectors of the planned new area. As mentioned, it will be particularly important to differentiate the elements of cost increases as to real marginal costs, inflation, upgrading of services and related factors. b. Consultation with Agency Staff -It will be mandatory to consult at length with each operating de;)artment of the City and the special districts relative to service require- ments and costs for Rancho Carrillo, As indicated, municipal accounting systems generally do not allow precise cost break- ' downs in terms of varying land uses. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain additional data as to operations. For example, many police and fire departments have computerized Tesponse data which indicates their exact workload, the location, the type of land use involved and the cost involved. From this information, realistic estimates can be made for servicing expanded areas of the City. c. Rancho Carrillo ai a Unique Sector -A significant amount of the analysis of service levels and respective costs will relate to the manner in which Rancho Carrillo may be differentiated from the balance of Carlsbad. A careful review of the existing -8- I l I ! . [ l I i '., . I ( ., . I municipal budget wou·ld al'lov; general estimate_s of unit costs for serving the var_y·Jng types of land uses in the City. However, there may well be significant changes in these elements relative to planned new areas. d. Variations in Service Requirements -As outlined. under the land use analysis, consideration must be given to the implications of varying service requirements related to conceivable variations in the r~te of absorption of land uses. While the most probable rates of use may be considered, it will be particularly important to consider the necessary reactions to market activities 111hich either speed up or slow down development of the project. Bond financing requirements, for example, can be a critical considera- tion with respect to timihg. e. Services to be Covered -The analysis will consider all services . - . now made available by the City and the s·pecial districts. Addition- ally, consideration may .well be given to added facilities and/or servi_ces which the City and/or agencies may now be considering. Con- sultation with staff will determine those areas which should be added to the existing spectrum. 2. Qualitative Factors This phase of the study will consider the existing quality level of , services to provide a comparison with prevail~ng per unit costs. a. Present Standards -A comprehensive analysis of present service standards throughout the City and the special districts. b. Comparison of Service Levels -An analysis of those prevailing in relation to comparable Southern California communities to identify similarities and/or major differentials. c. Municipal/Agency Policies -A review of all studies, documents, policies and proposals for changes in service levels and/or upgraded services throughout the community. d. Discus'.;ions l'iith Staff -An exploration with municipal/agency staff relative to desired changes and the incorporation of such changes in the study. e. Specif"ic Services for Rancho Carrillo -An analys·is of con- ceivable changes/revisi6ns in service level standards which would be particularly applicable to the property. f. Determ"ination of Service Level Requirements -A study to determine ~vhether existing services should be applied or to what extent new service levels and their corresporiding costs will be applicable. Of particular importance in this phase of the study will be consideration of the implications in- volved in c~anged and/or upgraded service levels for Rancho Carrillo. B. Projected Capital Facility Expenditures This phase of the report will consider the capital requirements and their respective costs ~s·f61lows: . 1. Capital Requirements -An analysis and projection of all municipal· and special district physical requirements through build-out of Rancho Carrillo. Covered in the analysis will be items as police/ fire substations, parks, streets, utility systems, schools, libraries and any other pertinent_investments in the community infrastructure. 2. ·Responsible Party -An analysis of each expenditure in terms of the parties to construct and to fund the project. On-site re- quirements wil 1 be generally those of the developers, though special water/sewer system or other items may require agency investment agreements, shared costs and related factors. 3. Public Agency Financin[ -For those investments to be prqvided by public agencies, an analysis of the most appropriate financing vehicles must be considered to include bonding, special assessment ~istricts, tax rates or other factors. Consideration must, in -addition, be given to.the potential for participation by other agencies in terms of grants or loans including the federal govern- ment, th·e state of the County of Sc1n Diego. ' ' ( 4. Cost Allocation -There may well be circumstances where financial responsilYility for particu·lar investments must be shared among Rancho Carrillo and other areas. An analysis will be made of alternat·ive allocation schemes to identify the most appropriate for each particular investment. C. Municipal Revenues This phase of the report will consist of an analysis and projection of revenues to accrue to the mun·icipal ity and the special districts from the existing and proposed sections of Rancho Carrillo'as fol- ·l ov1s: l. Revenues per Unit -A determination of the most appropriate per dwelling unit and/or per acre revenues to be derived from each budgeted item. Revenues as property and sales tax may be pre- cisely ~etermined for each individual project. However, a number of other revenues must utilize the per .unit averages in the absence of specific data. 2. Sales Tax Allocation -A~ mentioned, the philosophy utilized in the allocation of sales tax revenues will materially affect the· apparent f·iscal impact of individual residential or commercial developments. The key factors in this a.lloca.tion should be the ori_g_in of the funds which produce the tax revenues. D. Cost/Revenue Projections Based on the .foregoing sets of analysis, the cost/revenue balance for each phase of the proposed project will be prepared. While the ·precise format may be determined at a later date, HJG has found that determination of the cost/revenue balance at five year intervals and most importantly --upon completion of all improvements is the most meaningful . _,,_ ( ,r i The fina·1 report w"ill provide a documented summary of all assumptfons, calculations and conclusions. Of particular importance will be the p_olicy questions concernfog the project to be resolved by the planning commission and the city council. In addition, the report will provide a written methcidology on the land use and fiscal impact analysis to allov1 staff the opportunity to provide necessar_y revisions in the report at a later date and to allow use of the economic/fiscal models for other community development plans. -12- .• I ! I ( ' ) TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATE COSTS Time Schedule The report can be completed within a 12 week time frame, Only in the event of prolonged delays, requested revision in the report or the requirement for extensive revisions in the land use plan to provide acceptable marketability, would the time frame exceed this period. Budget Requirements The economic and fiscal impact studies would be performed for a maximum budget of $18,500, Precise costs will be contingent upon a number of factors as the availability of data and the number of public presentations required. --13- ( CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUDIES l ~ City of Nev-1port Beach -fiscal impact analys-is system, contact Bob Lenard (640~2218) 2. City of Palm Springs -fiscal impact analysis system, contact Murrell Crump --now with City of.:. Palm Desert (346-0611) 3. San Antonio Chamber of Commerce fiscal impact analysis system,· contact Kathy Obriotti (512/227-8181). 4. The Irvine Company~ numerous marketing·and fiscal impact studies, contact Earl Timmons ( 644-3011 ) 5. The Lusk Company -numerous marketing and fiscal impact studies, contact Don Steffensen (557-8220) Studies now underway include a major economic impact analysis and projection for the city of Indio. , . i ( ( 1600 oovr. sm1.u su,rr 320, NLWr(WT IJf /\CH. CA 92MO , (714) 1\51-0892 ( ( T11E NETIPOR:/.1 ECONOMICS GROUP QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE The Newport Economics_ Group., Inc . ., formed in 1971.,_ is a professional. research cmd consul-ting firm offering se1?vices in the fieZ.ds of general. economic analysis on a nat{onaZ. and 1?egionaZ. basis.,· market research., deveZ-opment planning., financial anaZ.ysis., and fiscal-impact studies. During the firm's fi_rst 8 years of operation., 350 studies have been compZ.eted for over 100 clients in 12 states from Florida to Hawaii. PrinaipaZ.s of the firm m?e abZ.e to offer the w.ique combination of extensive backg1?ounds in government and private industry combined with management experience in nati<?nal corporations. The Newport Economics Group., Inc. is firmZ.y committed to the goal-of providing clients with the economic tooZ.s and strategies that wiZZ. lead to the complet1:on of successful projects. ,( ( TllE NETvPORT ECONOMICS GROUP REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS Business Firms Alnerican National Housing, Newport Beach Anaheim H1: Zls, Inc., Anaheim AJ?osa DeveZopment and Management, Inc., Newpor-t Beach Avco Community Developers, Inc., San Diego The Berghee1? Compcviy, Santa Ana Bixby Ranch Company, Los Angeles Brelaca, Inc., Irvine Donald L. B1?en Co . ., Los Angeles Chevron Land and Development Co., San Francisco Cold;,;ell Banker Management Corporation, Newport Beach Covington Bros. Construction Co., Fullerton Curci-Turner Company, Newport Beach Daon Development Go1-poration, Newpo1?t Beach Deane Development Company, Newport Beach Desert Inn Motels, Lancaster · _Walt Disney rlorld, Orlando., Flo1?ida P~sher -Land Co17Poration, Fresno Freres Jacque Restaurant Co . ., Inc., Neiuport Beach Joe E.-Fritz & Co., Albuquerque., New Mex·ico Fujita-U.S.A . ., Santa Monica Genstar Development, Inc., San Francisco Gfeller Development Corrrpany, Inc., ·Irvine Great Lakes Properties, Inc., Torrance E. W. Hahn, Inc . ., Los Angeles The Irvine Company, Newport Beach KAcor Realty, Oak.land Kaufman and B1?oad, Inc., I1~ine Land Resov..rces, Inc., New York City Leadership llow;ing Systems, Inc., San Diego The Lusk Company, Nmuport Beach The Tvilliam Lyon Co., Ne1upor•t Beach Maui Land and Pineapple Co., Maui, Hawaii The McCarthy Company, lmaheim · MCK Development., Inc., Lomas San.ta Fe Mission Viejo Company, Miss1'.on Viejo The Ne1upm•t Dcn>e Zopment Co . ., Newport Beach Nissan. Motor CoFpora-f;ion in U.S. A . ., Loa Angeles Nu-1-le:;t Developmenl; Corp., NcwpoP~ Beach . ' .. ) ' / ( Business Fi.nns ( Continued) Oak Industries., San Diego Pa1~7wenter Corpo1ution.., San:ta Ana ( The Prudential Insurance Co. of Amer·foa., Nel,)port Beach Rancho MatiZija., Ojai Reserve Oil Company., Apple Valley Saffell & McAdam" Irvine San Diego Pacific Land Co . ., San Diego Sea:rs., Roebuck & Co . ., A lluvribra C. J. Segerstrom & Sons., Costs Mesa Sequoia Pacific -A Southern Pacific Company., Santa Ana Shaw & Talbot., Newport Beach Sproul Enterpr-fses, Albuquerque, Nel,) Mexico TechbiZt Construction Corp . ., San Diego Ticor Properties, Inc . ., Santa Ana Toyota Motor Sales -U.S.A . ., Inc. Vanguard Bui lde1~s., San Dimas Walker & Lee Real Estate, Santa Ana Robert P. TlaY'lT'ington Co .. ., Inc . ., Irvine Ileatherfield Homes., Tustin University of CaliforniaJ Berk e ley University of California, Irvine Research Fir-ms ( Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park Public Agencies/As s ociations Aliso Waste Water Management Agency, Laguna Beach Audubon Soci e ty, Miami, Florida California Builders Council, Sacramento City of Boca Raton, Florida City of Ca1° ls bad, California ·city of Lakewood, Cal-ifo1'm:a City of Newport Beach, California City of Palm Springs, Californi a City of Santa Fe Springs, California City of Stanton, California Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commerae, Texas Los Angeles World Trade Center Orange County Environmental Management Agency Orange County Fair Board Orlando Central Business District, Florida San Bernardino County Fair Board State of California Division of ~airs and Expositions ( SERVICES OF'Ji'ERF:D REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Studies of national/regional economic criteria to provide guidelines for regional bu siness planning, long-range land use planning and urban growth policy~ -Major studies include: 0 The Florida Regional Economy, Boca Raton- @ The Irvine Ranch Long Range Potential, Irvine e Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii G Recession Irr_1pact/Re'a l P1?ope'r'ty Investments., Phoenix REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS _Analysis and projection of market support for specific areas cove1•ing consumer p1?oduct/ service distribution and/ or capital investment. Major studies include: 0 · CadiZ. lac Auto Distribution, Sou.thern California a Casino/Gaming Activity., Nevada 0 Horseracing/Pa~imutuel .Wage~ing, California 0 Jet Boat Market, California 8 Retail Merchandise Demand Analysis, Orange County COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING Studies related to general economic and market support cri- teria pe~tinent to comm~nity planning with respect to the optimum mix and absorption of Zand uses by type, the most advantageous residential densities and relative locations throughout the community, the essential recreational and environmental features in addition to all commercial/service facilities. Major studies include: . D City of Boca ·Raton, Florida , 0 Irvine-By-The-Sea, Newport/Laguna • Scripps Ranch, San Diego ..... Thibodo Ranch, San Diego 0 West Ranch, Houston ( PROFESS.TONAL SERVICE FIRM ASSOC.l/JTIONS (Projects completed on a client or joint venture basis) PZanning, Architectural & Engineering Balle1J/McFaJ."Z-and., Planners & Architects., .Irvine Robert Bein., f17illiam Frost & Associates., Newport Beach Boyle Engineering., Santa Ana Hart., Krivatsky & StulJee., San Francisco Haworth., Carroll & Anderson., San Juan Capistr•ano Jennings-Halderrman-l!ood Engineers:. Santa Ana David Klages and Associates:. Newpo:r-t Beach I.add., Kelsey & vloodard, Newport Beach Langdon & Wilson., Architects., Newport Beach Ed Lohrbach., AIA., Neu1port Beach Desmond Muirhead., Inc . ., Newport Beach Dale Naegle & Associates., La Jolla Peter Ostrander & Susu Kishiyarna Architects., Irvine Wm. L. Pereira Associates -Planners., Architects., Engineers., Neu.1po1?t Beach Phill1:ps., B1YD1.dt & Reddick., NeL.,port Beach The Planning Center, Newport Beach Jack G. Raub Co . ., Nel.Jport Beach Richardson-Nagy-Martin., Newport Beach Rick Engineering., San Diego Alan Voorhees Associates, Newport Beach J. L. Webb Planning, Newport Beach flestec Ser-vices, Inc., Tustin 1vilsey & Ham, Los Angeles · LalJ Finns Frates, Floyd, Pearson; Steward., Proenza & Richman., ft1iami Fulop, Rolston, Burns & McKitt1°ick, Los Angeles Luce, For'i.,Jar•d, lla.miZton & Scripps., San Diego O'Melveny & Myers, Los Angeles Paul, Hastings., Jcmofsky & T✓alker, Los Angeles· Slzenas, Robbirw, Shenas and 8hco.J, San Diego Wa:r>e, Fletcher & E'reiden.rich, Pa~o AUo ( SERVICES OFFERED ( ' NEW DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PLANNING Detalled stud-ies for individual-p11 ojects in the land develop-. ment field including subdivisions, shopping centers, office buildings, industrial parks and related. Market suppo11 t data .covers anticipated sales/absorption; ~rice/rent ranges3 square footage, price per square foot, Zand use mix and r~lated fac- tors. Major studies include: Q Irvine Regional Center, Irvine o Newport Center, Newport Beach o Reeves Ranch, San Clemente· G University City Centerj San Diego o Village of Woodbridge, Ir~ine REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT PLANNING Analyses of redevelopment potential related to market support, land assemblage/value and financial feasibility. Major studies include: 0 Central Bu.·!iness Di•strict, Orlando o Central Business District, Phoenix o Lido Peninsula, Newport Beach o McCullough Properties, Houston o Pacific Ocean Park., Santa Monica HOUSING NEEDS/HOUSING ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS Performance of housing inventory studies to determine availa- bility., price range and structural conditio~. Demand analysis concentrating on ability to pay versus rent/housing payment Zeve ls, the needs of la.1.1 ger families and the elderly. Prepara- tion of liouaing Assistance Plan data for HCD fund applications. Maj or studies include: • D City ~f Lakewood • City of Santa Fe Springs '. ,. ( ( SERVICES OFFERED COMMERCIAL-INDUSTR.fAL SITE LOCATION An~lyses of alternative locations for industrial and office spac~ users covering general economic climate, labor demand/supply, wage rates, transpo1?tation, climate and re lated factors.. Maj oi' studies include: e Industrial Location Criteria, Irvin~ Industrial Complex, Irvine Q Industrial Development-Potential, Palomar Airport, Carlsbad 9 Comparative Wage Rates, Orange County HOTEL-RESORT PLANNING Analysis of mm?ke t support and economic feasibility for commerc1:al and resort hotel operations. Major studieE' include: 0 Costa Smeralda, Sa1 .. dinia ~ Irvine-by-the-Sea, Newport/Laguna 6 .Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii o Las Vegas Hotel-Casino, Nevada 0 Walt Disney World, Orlando, Florida -ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS The effect on population, employment, income, expenditures and ·investment resulting from new community developments as new in- ·-dus trial p Zan ts, commercial projects, recreation, educational facilities and residential developments .. Major studies include: I Irvine Industrial Complex O University of Califo2•nia, Irvine I Newport Center, Newport Beach ~ Rancho Bernardo, S~n Diego ·-,-·· I ' ( ,· SERVICES OFFERED FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS Via computer systems., the fiscal impact-of new development on the gove11 ning agencies/school· distric·t is performed. Highly detailed cost/revenue studies indicate anticipated net defi- cits or net bene fits 11 esulting from Zand development alterna- · tives. Major studies include: 0 Bixby Properties., Long Beach @ City of Boca Raton.,· Florida-( Growth Management) Q City of Newport Beach., California (F-z:scal Impact Analysis System) IP Foothills Property.,· Palo Alto O University of Californi~, Irvine FINANCIAL ANALYS'IS Via computer systems., income and cash flow statements outline initial investment, loan disbursements, operating revenues/ cos ts and related c1•i teria. Major studies include: 0 ADMA Co., Inc. Properties, San.Diego B Holstein Properties~ El Toro D Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii I Sequoia Pacific Properties, _Santa Ana , I ·\ I ! .'l'HE NEl✓PORT ECONOMICS GROUP (,fAJOR HOUSING J.1/lRKET STUDIE:S ( 0 Chevron Properties, Bakersfield -Demand/Absorption Study. G Chevron Properties, Carpenteria -Condominiwn Study. 0 City of Boca Ra·ton, Florida -Gr(!Wth Mcmagement. G City of Lakewood -Housing Inventory. G City of Orlando, FZo11 ida -CED Redevelopment. 0 City of San-ta Fe Springs -Resident Survey. 0 County of 011ange -Housing Element. 8 Domingv.ez Rcmch, Santa Ana Canyon -Demand Analysis for Attached and Detached Units. Gl Irvine Ranch -Series of Market Analyses for aU Housing Types. 9 Kapalv.a Resort, Maui, HCll..Jaii -Condominiwn Study. 9 K:r>aemer Ranch, Santa _Ana Canyon -Condominium Study. · 8 Lido Peninsula, Newport Be~ch -Redevelopment Study. 9 Lusk Properties, Carlsbad _:. Condominium-and Mobile Home Park Study. e Mammoth, California -Resort/Condominium Study. G MCI( Properties, Perris Lake,· California -Apa11tment/NobiZe Home Park Study. G Mission HiZls Ranch, San Juan Capistrano Pricing Study. 0 Nohl Ranch, Orange -Condominium Study. Demand/Absorption/ 0 Penasquitos Ranch, San Diego -Series of Hous1:ng Market Studies. ·c, Reeves Ranch, San Clemente -Demand Analysis for Attaclied and Deta.ched Uni ts. & Scripps Ranch, El Toro -Sf3ries of Studies. 8 Thibodo Ranch, San Diego Housing Market Analysis. 0 University City, San Diego -Series of Housing Market Studies. I Univernity of California, Irvine -Campus Impact on · 11ousing Demand. 0 l{hiting Ranch, EZ Toro -!lousing Market lmaZysis. l . ARIZONA Coforado R-z:ver Phoenix Scottsd,ale · Tuc:son · CAIJFORNIA Ande·.t1son Apple Valley Arcadia Bake1•sfie ld Bermv.da Dunes Can.yon La)w Cai•lsbad Cathedral City Chico · Chfno. · Colton Corona Costa Mesa Cupertino El Monte EZ To1?0 Fountain VaZ.Zey Ful.le1?ton Garden Grove Hemet Hwitington Beach Inglewood Indian Tie Z Zs Indio Irvine La Jolla La.gwia Beach La.kel.Jood Lancaster Long Beach Los A Zami tos Los Angeles Ojai ( THE' NEYPORT ECONOMICS GROUP PROJBCT LOCATIONS CALIFORNIA (Cont.) Mammoth Mission V-iejo Modesto . Newpo1?t Beach Ontario Palm Dese1?t Palm Springs Perris Lake Palo Alto Palomar Airport Rancho Bernardo Rancho Cucamonga Rancho Mirage Rancho Renasquitos Red BZuj'f. · Redding ·Riverside San Bernm'dino . San Clemente San Diego. San Francisco . San Jose -San Juan Capistrano Santa Ana Santa Bai•bara Santa Clara Santa Fe Springs Santa Monica Stanton Stockton Sunnyvale Torrance Ventura Victorvi l Ze Vista Watson.vi l Ze · Westminster COLORADO DemJer Steamboat Sp1oings ( FLORIDA Boca Raton 01•lando Sarasota Tampa HATIAII KapaZua, Maui IDAHO Sun Valley ILLINOIS Chiaago ·NEVEDA Lake Tahoe Las VegaB Pyramid Lake Reno NEfv lifEXICO A Zbuquerque OKLAHOMA Tulsa TEXAS Clear Lake DaZZas Houston San Antonio IvASllINGTON SeattZe l{AS!IINGTON,_ City D. C. ( ( \' , .. SENIOR STAFF RESUMES . ,. ,,\ 1 . '""' ROBERT J~ DUNHAM ( / I PRESIDENT Robert Dunham id the President of The Newpor~ Economics Group and has direct responsihi lity. for_ all corporate ope1•ations. His ex~erience in economic a~alysis and market research spans twenty years. Major projects he hds directed include (1) a series of eco- nomic and fiscal impact analyses fo1? private sector urban developments., city/county governments and the University of California., ( 2) market support studies for many commercial., industrial., and residential land development projects nation- wide., (3) hotel-resort feasibility studies in Arizona., Cali- fornia., Hawaii and Nevada., and (4) Marina operation analyses in Newport Harbor and the Colorado River . . Prior to jo~ning The Newport Economics Group., Mr. Dunham was · Manager of Economi•c Research for The Irvine Company. In that capacity., he directed economic resea~ch and market plan- ning for nezu urban develop men ts including housing., office buildings~ hoteZsj all types of retail/service facilities., and industria_l parks. Maj or individual proj eats inc Zude New- port Center., The Irvine Reiional Center., and The Irvine Coastal Sector. Before relocating to Southe1?n California., Mr. Dunham was Senior Economist for the Del E. Webb Corporation headquartered in -Phoenix; Arizona. He conducted economic and market research studies in the wes·tern states and Cintral America covering a number of major retirement com~unities., shopping centers., hotels .. . . ana gam~ng cas~nos. As an economist fo1~ the Arizona Employment Security Commission., -he performed labor market studies, plant location analyses and wage surveys for major employers. Mr. Dunham is a graduate of the University of Arizona with a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration. He also completed substantial iraduate work in Economics at Arizona $tate University. Mr. Dunham -Z:s actively associated with the National Association of Business Economists. ( FREDRICK H. GOOD VICE PRESIDENT Fred Good serves as Vice President of The Newport Economics Group with program manag~ment· respon~iliilities ~n urban devel- opment projects and major investment atialyses. His rese~rch and management experience covers virtually all phases of de- velopment; residential, commercial, and industrial plant lo- qation studies. · Key developments in which he has been involved include Broad~ way Plaza -a multi-use development in the Los Angeles CBD, the Pacific Trade Center...; a high-rise office complex in Hano"" Zulu, high-rise condominiums for Twentieth Centu1?y Fox., Cen- tury City and marina developments at Dana Point, The Channel Is lands and Cos ta Sme1?a lda, Sardinia. Present assignments include analyses of development potential and disposition of properties in the San Pedro/iong Beach sec~ tor for the Community Redevelopment Agency in Los Angeles, Mr. Good's prior experience includes the position of Vice President, U1-.ban studies for Economic 'Research Associates in Los Angeles where he directed numerous market support and economic feasibility stidies for government and private in- dus t1•y. For the Los Angeles CRA., Mr. Good was instrumental ~n devel~ oping specific plans for the Beacon Street Project on the San Pedro Waterfront, For the Los Angeles Harbor Department) he c6mpleted a comprehensive multiple use economic and finan- cial development plan for San Pedro 1s Main Channel [,lest Banki Mr. Good initiated i;he economic revitalization plan for the City of South Pasadena (now underway); assisted in the hous~ ing and commercial aspects 6f Pasadena's redevelopment; and evaluated the short and long term implications ·of the bond- ing program for the Urban Renewal Project at Redondo Beach's King Harbor Marina. Previously., he was Senior Economist for SRI In te·rna tiona Z in Menlo Park. Assignments covered a broad range of real estate and industrial projects. Mr. Good managed the economids de~ partment of the Eu1?opean Office· of SRI for an extende8 period. He is a Berekely gr~duate and received ~n MBA from ~he Graduate School of Business at Stanford. He ia a member of Lambda Al- pha, the International Honorary Land Economics Fraternity and the WcstePn Economics Asoociatio~. ( ,,\SANGER C. HEDRICK JR. SENIOR ASSOCIATE (. ... ·v• Sandy Hedrick is a Senio1• Associate 1i,ith 12 years expe1•ience in the field of economic analysis related to real estate de- velopment and land use decision making. His expertise encom- passes a wide range of public and private real estate projects, including recreation oriented development, residential devel- opment, commercial p~ojects, socio-economic.impact and cost/ benefit analyses. Recent Newport Economics studies directed by Mr. Hedrick in- clude a re-development project analyses in Long Beach, a 1000 acre custom home project in Ojai and a variety of Zand use studies. in Lancaster. Prior to joining Newport Economics, Mr. Hedrick was a Vice President of Development Economics, Inc. ( 19 71-19 7 5) and a .Senior Associate with Econo~ics Research Associates in Los Angeles for five years. In rec1•eation economics, Mr. Hedrick has evaluated the econom- ic feasibility of an 1,100 acre resort development at Steam- boat Springs, Co Zo::.·ado, theme re creation parks near Denver, Colorado and Detroit, Michigan, resort-oriented condominiums, private and public marina development and recreation vehicle parks. In housing analysis, Mr. Hedrick has conducted market and fea- sibility studies for residential projects ranging from small single-family tracts and apartment projects to large master- planned community developments. Commercial studies have included numerous market analyses, feasibility and planning studies for shopping centers, ranging from small neighbo1?hood centers to majo1? regional shopping centers. He recently completed the market and feasibility analysis for a major theme specialty retail center in Denver, Col6rado. He participated in the feasibility analysis for the Broadway Plaza Center in downtown Los Angeles. Jifr>. Hedrick. holds an M.B.A. from U.S.C. and a B.A. in e·conomics from Stanford Univers_ity. JAMES P. REGAN SENIOR ASSOCIATE ( M1>; Regan has managemeri-t responsibility for a broad range of economic studies with specialization in resort development and urban studies. His consulting experiince spans twelve years with projects completed throughout many of the m2jor ~etropolitan areas in thd United States, Mexico, Central America and the Mediterranean. He recently completed a series of housing market analyses for the Orange County Housing Element. The emphasis was on effect1:ve versus non-effective demand and alteniative housing program strategies. Previously, Jim Regan was a Vice President -Real Estate Pr1ograms fo1~ Economics Research Associates in Los Angeles. In that capacity, he directed a number of major community analysis programs. Locally, these included economic and fiscal impact studies of the Coyote Hills development in Fullerton, portions of the City of Orange master plan; the Broad~ay Plaza p~oject in Los Angeles and Westlake Village. Additionally, he has perfdrmed similar studies in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver and Philadelphia. His resort ~xperience includes a number vf developments for FONATUR (tourism development agency) in Mexico, Manzani Z Zo, Puerto Val Zar-ta and Acapulco. Hotel and Pelated reiort activity feasibility studies have been conducted throughout the United States covering ski re- sorts in the Rocky Mountain area, hotel/golf/tennis re- sorts in Palm Springs and retirement/resort communities in San Diego. Mr. Regan holds a B.S. in chemistry from Marquette Univer- sity and an M. B. A. -Finance f1?om the rla1~ton G1~aduate School at the University of PennysyZvania. Hi is a member of the .American Land Development Association and a member of the AIA Regional Urban Design Assistance Team. ''. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 RESOLUTION NO. 6152 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING AN AGREE- MENT BETWEEN 'I'HE CITY OF CARLSBAD AND THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS GROUP FOR CONSULTING SERVICES INVOLVING THE PREPARATION OF AN ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS FOR THE RANCHO CARRILLO MASTER PLAN REVISION. The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, does hereby resolve as follows: 1. That certain agreement between the City of Carlsbad and 'l'he Newport Economics Group for the preparation of an • Economic and fiscal analysis of the proposed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan, attached hereto and marked Exhibit "l", and incorporated herein by reference, is her~by approved. 2. That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby authorized and directed to execute said agreement for and on behalf of the City of Carlsbad. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the _ City Council of the City of Carlsbad held on the 15th day of 17 April , 1980, by the following vote, to wit: .. 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 AYES: Councilmen Packard, Anear, Lewis and Councilwomen Casler and Kulchin NOES: None ABSENT: None ATTEST: 27 ALETHA L. RAU'l'ENKRANZ, CITY OF CARLSBAD 28 /Ill RONALD C. PACKARD, Mayor CITY OF CARLSBAD \., ( ( AGREEMENT THIS AGREEMEN'r is made this day of --- 1980, between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a rnunicipa~ corporation of the State of California, hereinafter referred to.as CITY, and The Newport economics Group hereinafter referred to as CONSULTANT. RECITALS: WHEREAS, th~ City has entered into an agreement with DAON Southwest, hereinafter called the ·"Applicant", wherein the Applicant agrees to allocate funds to the City for the provision of a Consultant to prepare the proposed project identified as an economic and fiscal analysis for the pro- posed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan whose boundaries are shown on the plat marked Exhibit "A",· attached hereto and made a part hereof; and WHEREAS, the Consultant has the qualifications to moni- tor and process the said economic and fiscal analysis, and EXHIBIT "I " TO RESOLUTION NO. 6152 · ., ,i ( ( WHEREAS, The Consultant represents that neither he nor any member of his staff has performed any_ work on the proposed project as a private consultant and has no understanding witl_l the Applicant or any expectation of working for the Applicant in the future on said project and has not been employed by the applicant upon any project within two years last past; and WHEREAS, it is understood that the Consultant shall be an independent contractor of the City; NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of their mutual conven- ants and conditions, the parties hereto agree as follows: (1) DUTIES OF THE CONSULTANT: Consultant shall prepare the economic and fiscal analysis as directed by the Planning Director. Consultant shall be working for· the City only and all consultant findings will be made to the City planning staff and not directly to the Applicant. In carrying out this obligation the Consultant 1 s duties shall include the following: (a) The Consultant shall complete the economic and fiscal analysis within ten (10) weeks of contract execution. (b) Consultant analysis shall conform to the proposal attached as Exhibit B, and·incorporated herein by reference. (c) Consultant shall meet with the Planning Director or his designated staff as required during the -2- ( ( execution of the contract. (d) The Consultant shall meet with the various City departmenta as may·be necessary to com- plete the analysis. (e) Consultant shall be prepared to attend up to four (4) public hearings and shall answer any questions thit may arise with regard to the economic and fiscal analysis. (f) The Consultant shall prepare the final economic and fiscal ·analysis report after approval by the City Council. {g) The Consultant shall meet' the time lines out- lined in Section 7 of this agreement. (h) The Consultant shall file a conflict of interest statement with the City Clerk's Office. {Cate- gories A, C, and E). (2) DUTIES OF THE CITY (a) The City will make payment to the Consultant as provided for in this agreement. {b) The City will make available to the Consultant any document, studies; or other· information in its possession related to the proposed project. (c) . The City will review the Consultant's comments on the proposed economic and fiscal analysis -3- (d) ( ( within twelve (12) working days of their receipt. City staff will meet with the Consultant as may be required by the Planning Director. (3) TERMINATION OF AGREEMENT The City may terminate this Agreement at any time by giving written notice to the Consultant of such termination and specifying ·the effective date thereof, at least fifteen (15) days before the effectiye date of such termination. In that event, all fini~hed or unfinished documents and other materials prepared pursuant to this Agreement shall, at the option of the City, become its proper!::y. (4) RELEASE OF INFORMATION BY CONSULTANT Any reports, information or other data, prepared or assembled by the Consultant under this Agreement shall not be made available to any individual or organization by the Consultant without the prior written approval of the City. (5) OWNERSHIP, PUBLICATION, REPRODUCT.ION AND USE OF FISCAL REPORTS .AND OTHER MATERIAL All documents and materials ·prepared pursuant to this agreement are the property of the City. The City shall have the unrestricted authority to publish, disclose, distribute ·and otherwise use, in whole or in part, any reports, data, or other materials prepared under this agreement. -4-. ( ( (6) PAYMENT The Consultant will be paid a maximum of $18,560.00 dollars for all work necessary to carry out the requirements of this agreement. -Actual payment shall be based on the cost of the report based on the costs as set forth in Exhibit "B". The Consul- tant shall be paid sixty percent (60%) of the com- pensable services completed within fifteen days after receipt of the invoice for the completion of the preliminary economic and fiscal analysis report. The Consultant shall be paid the thirty percent (30%) of the contract price within fifteen days after the receipt of the invoice for the final Economic and Fiscal Analysis. The final ten percent (10%) of the contract will be paid to the Consultant within thirty (30} days of City Council acceptance of the Economic and Fiscal Analysis of the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan. (7) TIME OF COMPLETION Time is of the essence in carrying out the terms of this Agreement. The Consultant ·shall be -responsible for the following completion dates: (a) Ten (10) copies of a preliminary economic and , fiscal analysis report shall be submitted to the city within (6) weeks of the execution of this contract. -5- (b) Thirty (30) copies of the final economic and fiscal analysis report shall be submitted by the Consultant within ten (10) weeks of the execution of this contract. The Consultant will be allowed additional days as are necessary to compensate for days lost due to City or Applicant actions or inter- actions which affect the Consultant's progress. (8) LIMITS OF THE OBLIGATION The limits of the obligation of the City under this Agreement is in the sum of $18,500.00 which amount is estimated .to be sufficient to compensate the Consultant for all services performed hereunder during the terms of this Agreement. In the event at any time it appears to the Consultant that said- sum may not be sufficient, he shall immediately so notify the Planning Director. He will not perform any work or incur any obligation beyond said sum of $18,500.00 without appropriate amendment to this Agreement. (9) HOLD HARMLESS The Consultant will indemnify the City against and hold it harmless from all and any cost, expense, or liability for damages on account of injury or death to persons or damage to property resulting from or ·arising out of or in any way connected with the per- formance by Consultant of this Agreement, including -6- ( the defense of any action arising therefrom. Con- sultant will reimburse the City for all costs, expen- ses and loases incurred by it in consequent of any claims, demands and causes of action which may be brought against it by a person arising out of the performance by Consultant of this Agreement. (10) MAINTAIN INSURANCE Consultant shall, at all times that this Agreement is in effect or the premises are occupied by Con- sultant, cause to be maintained in force and effect, qn insurance policy or policies which will insure and indemnify both City and Consultant against liability or financial loss resulting from injuries occurring to persons or property in or about the p~emises or occurring as a result of any acts or activity of consultant. The liability under such insurance policy shall be not less than $100,000 for any one person injured or $300,000 for any one accident and $50,000 for property damage. The policy shall be written by a responsible company or companies to be approved by City, and shall·be noncancelable, except on ten days' written notice to City. Such policy shall name City as co-insured and a copy of such policy shall be filed with the Plan- ning_ Department. -7- i f ' f r l ! ! I I I t I l 1 '. i ! I 1 · I • I: I ( (11) INDEPENDENT CONTRACTOR Consultant in accordance with his status as an independent contractor, convenants and agrees that he will conduct himself consistent with such status, that he will neither hold himself out as nor claim to be an officer or employee of the City by reason hereof, make any claim, demand, or application to or for any right or privilege applicable to an officer or employee of the City including, but not limited to, workmen's compensation coverage, unemployment insurance benefits, social security coverage, or retirement membership• credit. (12) ASSIGNMENT OF CONTRACT Consultant shall not assign this contract or any part thereof or any monies due or to become due thereunder without the prior written consent of the City. (13) SUBCONTRACTING If the Consultant shall subcontract any of the work to be performed under this contract by Consultant, the Consultant shall be fully responsible to the City for the acts and omissions of its subcontractor and of the persons either directly or indirectly employed by its subcontractor, as it is for the acts and omissions of persons directly employed by it. -8- Nothing contained in this contract shall create any contractural relationship between any subcon- tractor or Consultant and the City. The Consultant shall bind every subcontractor and every subcon- tractor of a subcontractor by the terms of this contract applicable to its work unless specifically noted to the contrary in the subcontract in question· approved in writing by the City. '(14) PROHIBITED INTEREST No official of the City who is authorized in such papacity and on behalf of the City to negotiate, make, accept or approve, or to take part in nego- tiating, making, accepting or approving any architectural, engineering, inspection, construction, 6r material supply contract or any subcontract in connection with the construction of the project, shall become directly or indirectly interested per- sonally in this contract or in any part thereof. No officer, employee, architect,-attorney, engineer or inspector of or for the City who is authorized in such capacity and on behalf of the City to ·exercise any executive, supervisory or other similar functions in connection with the performance of this contract shall become directly or indirectly interested per- son~lly in this contract or any part thereof. -9- '{. (15) VERBAL AGREEMENT OR CONVERSATION No verbal agreement or conversation with any officer, agent or employee of the City, either before, during or after the execution of this contract, shall affect or modify any 0£ the terms or obligations herein contained, nor such verbal agreement or ·conversation entitle the Consultant to any additional payment what- soever under the terms of this contract. IN WITNESS WHERKOF, The parties hereto have executed this Agreement on the day an~ year first above written. ATTEST: Attorney CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal Corporation of the State of California By ( \.· I OCEANSIDE VISTA L\1,111 · .. L .r·· -;•·-:•· .. 'ii(;, ) 1, "'""1,;'a;,:iii_,;c,c;-;;i ~-{, ~L<}~i!~t~c--+~·.,.,1..1 ..;;-------- f><.h,b,t A fo A13,-e.c..fV\c.V'\-\ .. ..,,,,,. .. •.· -:-.. A Ir-. • _.c-.-,._•.....,, rr/:>o '\ ... > ,2 , ,~ I .,, ·o . ··7g !7 ,· A PLANN[O COMMUNITY DY: CAnLS0AO, CALlrOnNIA ne· WOOOWAnD COMA\Nl[S, TIE' MEl:JTCR COMPANY; NC. & OAON SOUTHWEST rn SAN MARCOS E')(.H\e,li B -\-0 A~c~Q..f'f\t-W\+ RANCHO CARRILLO ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS A RESEARCH PROPOSAL FEBRUARY 1980 Preparea for: CITY OF CARLSBAD 1200 ELM AVENUE CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA 92008 \ Prepared by: THE NE~PORT ECONOMICS GROUP 500 . NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 350 NEWPORT .BEACH, CA 92660 (714) 640-0755 , FEB 1 5 1~180 CITY Of CARLSB!-\D Pl&tinlng Dc.;;:irtment · ( r ebrua ry 14, 1980 ~ Mr. James C. Hagaman Planning Director City of Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California 92068 Dear Mr. Hagaman: ( Enclosed is our proposal for the Rancho Carrillo Economic rind Fiscal Impact Report. The scope of the· study and the methodology parallel the Carlsbad Oaks study we performed in 1977. We look forward to discussing this proposal with you in detail. Sincerely,/) dttf~jJ.._ Roberti,,,·J. Dunham President RJO/mb Enclosure 1600 DOVE smm sum ~?.O. N[Wl'Ol?l nr ACH. CA Q2660. (7·1'1) ll51 -0692 I ( TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM: Phase I -Economic Impact Analysis. . " . . . Phase II -Municipal E~onomic Impact Analysis . / \ . . . . . l 5 8 TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATED COSTS . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUDIES . 14 i I I ! I I i ' ,. ( INTRODUCTION The primary objectives of the requested analysis are to test the economic and fiscal feasibility of a Master Plan for Rancho Carrillo. Additionally, .the study methodology for this report will provide a methodology and data base v-lh'ich vrill be applicable to similar community analysis. The Newport Economic~ Group has, during the past 8 years, conducted 60 studies related to this type of feasibility ana\ysis for the publk and private sector. To provide the type of meaningful results desired, there are a number of key requ:irements essential for the study. Examples include the fol"lowing: A. Economic Analysis l. A Sophisticated Land Use Forecast In the · dynanrics of che urban growth scenarios of Southern California, meaningful land use forecasts are particularly important. All else being equal, it is apparent that the accuracy will fluctuate in an inverse ratio to the time span covered. However, it is important to establish ranges of probable activity wherein one may set confi- dence limits as to the actual occ~rren~es. The key issue will, of course, be the rates of absorption for various land use categories on the property. For each, a most probable absorption must be ac- companied by a meaningful range indicating the scope of possibility under varying economic conditions. 2. The Implications of Error. ·Following the determination of high and low sets of probable activity, it is particularly important-to understand implications to the public facility feasibility should variations in the absorption rates occur. . ( ( In other words the 11 what if" question series must be analyzed in relation to the effect on the decision-making process for the City of Carlsbad. 3. The Importance of Land Use Balance Assuming the probabil ·j t_v of varying absorption rates, the second major concept relates to the reasonableness and economic balance of the end product. A number of tests relative to economic com- patibility should be applied carefully. 4. The Synthesis of Theoreticat Demand Versus Actual Absorption The land use forecast must carefully relate the elements of potential, theoretical demand to determine potential land uses under varying sets of circumstances versus a detailed analysis of all actual absorption for land uses throughout the region. Those elements relative to long _term trends·, cyclical forces, irregular influences and --often of great importance --the intangible element·of the public's attitude must be considered. 5. The Importance of Market Strategy A key element in overall absorption relates to the developer's market strategy. the goals to be utilized, the scope of effort to achieve those goals, the degree of aggressiveness and the level of sophistica- tion can all be key elements in determining the final outcome. 8. Fi~cal Analysis 1. The Strategic Importance of Cost Allocation Methodology One of the most important and often the most problematical elements of a fiscal impact study relates to cost allocation. Geneially, the issues of revenue assignm~nt are clear cut. The question of costs can be a different matter. Typically, municipal accounting systems do not provide the level of detail required to accurately assign costs to relatively small units of the city. Special district ·data may _ be similar.· It is· particularly important to consult extensively with i ( city staff, to outline clearly the alternat·ive methodologies available and to insure agreement on the part of all persons .in- volved relative to the system to be used. 2 .. The Marginal Cost Concept The most conmonplace methodology for fiscal impact studies assigns prevail ·j ng average costs to existing sectors of the cornmuni ty as well as planned, new areas. Often, the economies or diseconomies of scale tend to create a significant gap between prev~iling average costs and true marginal costi. During ·the past few jears, municipal costs have risen substantially more than in proportion to the rate of growth of many cities involved. Inflation and upgraded services are hm key elements which have brought this about. Therefore, it is particularly important to.disaggregate budgeted cost increases to thoroughly understand the probable real costs of serving added areas throughout a community. 3. Sales Tax Allocation Methodology While most revenues may be assigned without difficulty to appropriate -land uses, the sales tax poses a question of philosophy. Typically, such revenues are assigned to the crnmnercial sector~-a system which does not allow for adjustment in the event of added residential develop- ment \•rithout added commercial. Similarly, if all such revenues are assigned to the residential sector, the addition of new commercial could not be accounted for in the revenue model. On the basis of long experience, TNG believes that the origin of the funds should dictate the placement of credit. That is, sales tax revenues derived from expenditures of city residents should be assigned back to their sector. Revenues spent by visitors, tourists or any other non-residents should be assigned to the commerc~al sector. By this methodology, the system will allow for increases in any sector of the economy without.dis- tortion. ( 4. ~rhe Cost VC-:)~g_t~~li~y of Available Serv·iccs It ·is mandatory to fo·itially establish a cost of existing services in relatjon to their relative level of quality. A realistic appraisal must be made to determine wheth~r prevailing _costs are appropriate for the assignment to nevi, developing ar2as. Considerat'ions may relate to comparisons with comparable communities, discussions with staff, planning commission or city council, or compar-ison vrith a set of traditionally desired standards. -4- ' PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM The following paragraphs will provide a brief outline of the key elements i nvo·1 ved "in the requested work program .. PHASE I,.. ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT The initial phase of the study will involv8 an analysis and projection of the economic i~pact of the property on the local and regional housing markets. Based on the projected jemand, supp·ly > market strategy and other key factors, an annualized absorption for the specified land uses will be determined. A. Housing 1. Demand -An analysis and projection of population/households, age, sex factors, income, eIT'pl oymcnt, propensity to purchase versus rent and related factcrs in the North County area and the Rancho Carri l°J o sector. Of pa~ticular importance will be market segmentation relative to thr~ demand for primary housing, second homes, resort housing and r,~tirement units. The end product of this analysis will be schedules indicating probable absorption by type, density, occupancy status, general size and related factors. 2. Supply -An Analysis of present and probable future projects similar and/or competitive in scope to the project. Detailed analyses will be made of location, probable offering, timing, price rrlnges and related. 3. Market Strategy -An analysis of the probable corporate goals, degree of aggressiveness, strength of merchandising, degree of 1 sophistication and o~her factors which will determine probable relative strength in the marketplace for Rancho Carrillo. ( ( 4. Conclusion -A series of projections for the project in terms of ranges under varying a lterna ti ve assumptfons as to the absorption rates for each type of p"lanned housing project throughout the ,development. Again, it is important to emphasize the use of the most probable projection versus the concEivable highs and lows which could occur und2r varying economic conditions. B .. Commercial Facilities 1. Demand -An analysis and projection of all economic elements . relative to the demand fof commerci~l space .including retail, restaurants, service facilities and general purpose or medical/ dental office space. Indicators to be examined would include resident and visitor purchasing power, projected distribution of retail/service expen.ditures, office-related employment expansion and other factors. The end product of this phase of the study would be an annualized schedule of demaod for space in each of the relevant commercial categories. 2. Supply -An analysis of the present.and anticipated future supply of competitive facilities in terms of location, land use mix, evident strength and impact on the property. 3. Market Strategy -A determination of the apparent strategy to be utilized by Rancho Carrillo management to merchandise ccmmercial facilities. The aggressiveness and degree of sophistication in- volved will have a critical impact on the potential absorption of these land uses. 4. Conclusion -Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a schedule of probable absorption for each of the proposed commercial land uses at Rancho Carrillo would be prepared with a most probable level versus the potential highs an~ lows. -6- ( ( •• C. Ro.crea'ci onu ·1 Faci ·1 i ti es l. Demand An analysis and projection of economic factors pertinent to the demand for planned recrea tfona 1 facilities. Key factors will concern projected participation rates among residents in add ·i tion to the potenti a 1 for non--res i dent patronage ( as deenied desirable). (A determinant only if non-resideni parti~ipation is planned.) 2. Sup2.1l ,, Ana·lysis of the present and anticipated future supply of competitive facilities in terms of location, market strength, land available and total impact on the property. 3. Mark.et. Strategy,._ Planned operating methods, whether by the community association, private group, semi-private or other should be considered. 4. Conclusion ... Based on the foregoing sets of studies, recommen- dations as to the appropriate mix of re~reational facilities would be.made -including ph~•sing and land requirements. ( PHASE II ~ MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ., ------------------'-"--'-- This phase of the study will analyze in detail the economic and fiscal 1mpact of the plan. First, will be considered the service levels and costs, followed by capital expendit~re requirements and revenues. A. Service Requirements/Costs l. Quantitative Factors -The initial phase of this section of the report wil"I ·involve an analysis of the physical requirements for service to the new area and the cost levels involved, as follows: a. Trend Analysis -The municipal and various special distr"ict · budgets will be analyzed over time to determine appropriate per unit {per acre/per dwell·ing unit) costs for varying sectors of the planned new area. As mentioned, it will be particularly important to different"iate the elements of cost increases as to real marginal costs, inflation, upgrading of services and related factors. b. Consultation \'lith Agency Staff ~ It will be mandatory to · consult at ~ength wit~ each operating department of the City and the special districts relative to service require- ments and costs for Rancho Carrillo. As indicated, municipal . accounting systems generally do not allow precise cost break- downs in terms of varying land uses. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain additional data as to operations. For example, many police and f'ire departments have computerized response data which indicates their exact workload, the locat"ion, the type of land use involved and the cost involved.· From this information, real is tic estimates can be made for servicing expanded area·s of the City. c. Rancho Carrillo as·a Unique Sector -·A significant amount of the analysis of service levels and respective costs will relate to the manner in which Rancho Carrillo may be differentiated , . from the balance of Carlsbad.· A careful review of the existing ( municipal budget would allow general estimates of unit costs for serving the varying types of land uses in the C-jty, However, there muy well be sign"ificant cha,nges in these-elements relative to planned new areas. d. Variations in Service Requirements -As outlined under the land use analysis, consideration ~ust be given to the implications of vary"ing service requirements related to conceivable vari ations in the rate of absorption of land uses. While the most probable rates of use may be considered, it will be particularly important to consider the necessary reactions to market act·ivHies which either speed up or slow down development of the project. Bond fi~ancing requirements) for example, can be a critical considera- tion with respect to timing, e. Services to be Covered -The analysis will consider all services 110\'I made available by the City and the ~pecial distr-Jcts. Addition- ally, consideration may well be given to added facilities and/or sei~vices which the City and/or agencies may now be considering. Con- sultation vlith staff will determine those areas which shou·ld be added to the existing spectrum. 2. Qualitative Factors This phase of the study will consider the existing quality level of .services to provide a comparison with prevailing per unit costs. a. Present Standards -A comprehensive analysis of present service standards throughout the City and the special districts. b. Comparison of Service Levels -An analysis of those prevailing in relation to comparable Southern California communities to ·identify similarities and/or ma~or differentials. c. Municipal/Agency Policies -A review of all studies, documents, policies and proposals for changes in service levels and/or upgraded services throughout the community. -9- I l d. Discussions ~·lith Staff~ An expioration with mun·iC'ipa·1;a~1ency staff relative to desired changes and the incorporation of such changes in the study. e. Specific Services for Rancho Carrillo -An analysis of con- ceivable changes/revisicins in service level standards which would be particularly applicable to the property. f. Determinatior:i_:.__of Serv·ice Level Requirements -· A study to determine whether existing services should be applied or to what extent new service levels and their corresponding costs will be applicable. Of particular importance in this phase of the study will be consideration of the i~plications in- volved in changed and/or upgraded service levels for Rancho Carrillo. B. Projected Capital Facility Expenditures This phase of the report will consid~r the.capital requirements and their respective costs as·f6llows: 1. Capital Requirements -An an~lysis· and projection of all municipal and special d·istr'ict physical requirements through build-out of Rancho Carrillo. Covered in the analysis will be items as police/ fire substations, parks, streets, utility systems, schools, libraries and any other pertinent investments in the community infrastructure. 2. Responsible Party -An analysis of each expenditure in terms of the parties to construct a·nd to fund the project. On-site re- quirements will be gener~lly those of the developers, though special water/sewer system or other items may .require agency investment agreements, shared costs and related factors. 3. Public Agency Financing_ -For those investments to .be provided by , public agencies, an analysis of the most appropriate financing vehicles must be considered to include bonding, special assessment districts·, tax rates or other factors. Consideration must, in addition, be given to the potential for participation by other agencies in terms of grants or loans including the federal govern- ment, the state of the County of San Di_ego. ., 4. Cost Allocation -There may well be circumstances where financial respons·ibility for particular investments must be shared among Rancho Carrillo and other areas. An analysis will be made of alternative allocation scheDJes to identify the most appropriate for each parti cu"Jar investment. C. Municipal Revenues This phase of the report will consist of an analysis and projection of revenues to accrue to the rnun"icipality and the special districts from the existing and proposed sections of Rancho Carrillo as fol- . ·lows: l. Revenues per Uni_!_ -A determination of the most appropriate per dwelling unit aHd/or per acre revenues to be derived from each budgeted item. Revenues as property and sales tax may be pre- cisely determined for each individual project. However, a number of other revenues must utilize the per unit averages in the absence of specific data. 2. Sales Tax Allocation~ Ai mentioned, the philos6phy utilized in the allocation of sales tax revenues will materially affect the apparent fiscal impact of individual residential or comi11ercial developments. The key factors in this allocation should be the prigin of the funds which produce the tax revenues. D. Cost/Revenue Projections Based on the foregoing sets of analysis, the cost/revenue balance for each phase of the proposed project will be prepared. While the precise format may be determined at a· later date, TWG has found that determination of the cost/revenue balante at five year intervals and most importantly --· upon completion of all improvements ·js the most meaningful. -11 - . / ( Tlie finul report wi"ll provide a documented summary of all assumptions, calculations and conclusions. Of particular· ·importance will be the po"licy questions concei~ning the project to be resolved by the planning commission and the city council. In addition, the report will provide a written methodology on the land use and fiscal impact analysis to allow staff the opportunity to provide necessary revisions in the report at a later date and to al1ow use of the economic/fiscal models for other community development plans. -12- TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATE CO STS T-ime Schedule The report can be completed within a 12 week time frame. Only in the event .of prolonged delays, requested revision in the report or the requirement for extens·ive revisions in the land use plan to provide acceptable marketability, would the time frame exceed this period. ~udget Requirements The economic and fi sea 1 impact studies vwul d be performed for a maximum budget of $18,500, Precise costs will be contingent upon a number of factors as the availability of data and the number of public presentations required. -13- I I I . ' ! . ( / \ CLIEN1·s FOR SIMILAR STUDIES 1. City of Newport Beach ,, fisca.l impact analysis. system, contact Bob Lenard (640-2218) 2. City of Palm Springs -fiscal impact analysis system, contact Murrell Crump now with City of .. Palm Desert (346.-0611) 3, San Antonio Chamber of Corrunerce -fiscal impact analysis system, contact Kathy Obriotti (512/227-8181) 4. The Irv·i ne Company -numerous.marketing and fi sc;.il impact studies, contact Earl Timmons-(644-3011) 5. The Lusk Company -numerous marketing and fiscal impact studies, contact Don Steffensen (557-8220) Studies now underway include a major economic impact analysis and projection for the city of Indio. ( V'(':1 7;{;'~ \'.'d'"-~:'.Y, /\ V(•~r:j~ ,,o-,,, F ''1l l1 J.'f tl ill~ }, '\)! J..:,~.,J lJ i..J /~-1-~ t{.4J f.-2 t~ L 1600 CXM smm SUIT[ 3;,o. MWl'OfH llf'/\CI I. Cl\ 9261.0 · (71'1) /l!",19692 l J. ( THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS GROUP QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE The Newport Economics-G1?oup., Inc . ., formed in 19?.1.,_ is a professional research and cm~suUing firm offe1?ing services in the fields of general economic analysis on a national and regionq,l basis.,· rnax>ket reseaPch., development pZ.anning_, financial anaZysis., and fiscal impact studies. lJuY'ing the firm's first; 8 yeax>s of operaUon., 350 studies have been completed for over 100 clients 1.-n 12 st((-tes from Florida to Hawa1:i. Principals of the firm are able to offe1? the unique combination of extensive backgrounds in government and private industry combined mth management experienee in nati.onal corporations. The Ne1,;port Economics Group., Inc. is finuly committed to the goal of providing clients u>ith the economf,c tools and strategies that wiU lead to the completion of successful projects. .( ( THE NET✓PORT ECONOMICS GROUP RBPRESENTA'l.'IVE CLIEN:L'S Business Firms American Na·Honal Housing., Newport Beach Anaheim Hills., Inc . ., Anaheim A.J.,osa Deve lopment and Management., In.c . ., Neivport Beach Avco Community Developers., Inc., San Diego The Be1?gheer Company, Santa Ana Bixby Ranch Company_, Los Ange les Brelacc., Ine . ., Irvine Donald L. Bren Co . ., Los Angeles Chev1?on Land and Development Co . ., San Francisco · ColdJ.,;eU Banker' Management Corp01?ation., Neu:rport Beach Covington Bros. Constr,uction Co . ., FuUerton CuJ.?ci-Turne1? Company., Newport Beach Daon Deve lopment Corporation, Newport Beach Deane Development Company, Newpo1?t Beach Desert I1m Motels, Lancaster Walt Disney World., Orlando, Florida F1:sher Land Corrporation, Fresno Freres Jacque _ Restau:rant Co . ., Inc., Newporl; Beach Joe E •. Fritz & Co . ., Albuquerque, New Mexico Fuj_ita-U.S.A., Santa Monica Gensta:r Development, Inc., San Francisco GfeUe1? Development Company., Inc., Irvine Great Lakes Properties, Inc • ., Torrance E. W. Hahn, Inc., Los Angeles The .[1?vine Company, Newport Beach KAcor Realty, ·Oakland Kaufman and Broad, Inc., Irvine Land Resources, Inc., New York City Leadership Housing Systems, Inc., San Diego The Lu8k Company, NelJ)port Beach The William Lyon Co., Newport Beach Maui Land and Pineapple Co., Maui, Hawaii The McCaFthy Company, Anaheim · MCK Development, Ine., Lomas Santa Fe Mission Vif3jO Company, Mission Viejo The Ncwpor't Development Co., Nez,,port Beach Niscan Mof;o1• C0Ipo1°at?:on in U.S.A., !,as Angeles Nu-West Development Corp., NeiJport Beach ,· ( Business F1:rms. (Continued) Oak Indust1?ies:, San Diego Pa1?lwenter Corporation., Santa Ana 'lrhe PruderrUal Insurance Co. of Amer1:c_a., Newp01?t Beach Rancho Mah:l-L,ia., Ojai Reserve Oil Compcm.y., Apple Valley SaffeZ.Z & McAdam, IT'lJine San Diego Pacific Land Co . ., San Diego Sem?s., Roebuck & Co . ., Alhambra C. J. Sege1?strom & Sons, Costs Mesa Sequoia Pacific -A Southern Pacific Company, Santa Ana ShOu) & Talbot., Neu}port Beach Sp1?ouZ Enterprises, Albuquerque, New Mexico Techbilt Construction Gorp., San Diego Ticor Properties, Inc . ., Santa Ana Toyota Motor Sales -U.S.A., Inc. Vanguard Bui Zders, San Dimas Walker & Lee Real Estate, Santa Ana Robert P. Tlarmington · ·co . ., Inc . ., Irvine Weatherfie ld Homes., Tustin Uni 1) er s if; ·i es University of Cali forn.1.:a, Berkeley University of California, Irvine · Research Pirms Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park Public Aaencies/Associations Aliso Waste Water Management Agency, Laguna Beach Audubon Society, Miami, Florida California Builders Council, Sacramento City of Boca Raton, Florida City of Carlsbad, California City of Lake1iJood" California City of Newport Beach, California City of Palm Springs, California City of Santa Fe Springs, California City of Stanton, California Greater San A;·.tonio CIJ.ambe1? of Comme1?ce, Texas Los Angeles World Trade Center Orange County Environmental Management Agency Orange County Fair Board · ~rlando Central Business Dist~ict, Florida San Bernardino County Fair Board State of California Division of Fairs and Expositions ( SERV.ICES OFFE'RED REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS St~dies of national/regional economic _criteria to provide guidelines for regional business planning, long-1?ange land use planning and urban growth policy. Major studies include: @ The Florida Regional Economy, Boca Raton 8 1'he Irvin e Ranch Long Range Poten-/;iaZ, Irvine @ Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii tj Recession I1~pact/ReaZ Property Investments, Phoenix REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS . Analysis and projection of market support for specific areas covering consumer p1?oduct/se1?vice distribution and/or capital investment. Major studies include: · 0 Cadillac Auto Distribution, So~thern California ~ Casino/Gaming Activity, Nevada 0 Ho1>serC:,cing/Parimutuel Wagering, Ca"lifor•nia 0 Jet Boat Market, California O Retail Merchandise Demand Analysis, Orange County COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING Studies related to general economic and market support cr~- teria pertinent to community planning with respect to the optimum mix and absorption of land uses by type, the most advantageous residential densities and relative locations throughout the community, the essential recreational and environmental features in addition to all commercial/service facilities. Major studies include: 0 City of Boca Raton, Florida 9 . Irvine-By-The-Sea, Newpor>t/Laguna • Scripps Ranch, San Diego _··.o Thibodo Ranch, San Diego ' West Ranch, Houston ·••, ( I l PROFESSIONAL SERVICE FIRM ASSOCIATIONS I (Projects completed on a client or joint venture basis) Planning, Architectux>al & Engineering BaZZew/McPa2?Zand., Planners & Arcl11:tects., Irvine Robe2?t Bein., William Fros·{; & Associates:. Newport Beach Boyle Engineering., Santa Ana · Hart, Krivatd<y & Stubee, San Francisco Haworth., Carroll & Anderson., San ,Juan Capistrano Jennings--Haldernzan-Hood Enginee1?s., Santa Ana David Klages and Associates., Newport Beach Ladd., Kelsey & vloodard., Newport Beach Langdon & Tvilson, Architects., Newpprt Beach Ed Loh1?bach., AIA., Nev.Jport Beach Desmond Muirhead., Inc . ., ·N~wport Beach Dale Naegle & Associates., La JolZa- Pete1? Ostrande1? & Susu Kishiyama A1?chitects., Irvine Wm. L. Pereira Associate·s -Planners, Architects, Engineers., Newport Beach Phillips, Brandt & Reddickj Newport Beach The Planning Center., Newport Beach Jack G. Raub Co . ., Newport Beqch Richardson-Nagy-Martin., Newport Beach Rick Engineering., San Diego ·Alan Voorhees Associates., Newport Beach J. L. Webb Planning., Newport Beach Westec Services., Inc . ., Tustin Wilsey & llam., Los Ange"les · LatJJ Firms Frates, Floyd, Pearson., · Steward, Proenza & Richman, Miami Fulop., Rolston, Burns & McKittrick, Los Angeles Luce., Forward., Hamilton & Scripps, San Diego O'Melveny & MyeY•s, Los Angeles Paul., Hastin.gr;, Janofsky & Tvalker., Los Angeles Shenas, Robbins, Shenas and ShaJ, San Diego Ware, Fletcher & Freidenrich, Pal~ Alto ( SERVICES OFFERED NEW D~VELOPMENT PROJECT PLANNING betailed studies for individual projects in the Zand develop- ment field including subdivisions, shopping centers, office buildings, industrial parks and related. Market support data covers anticipated sales/abs9rption, price/rent ranges, square footage, p1•ice per square foot, Zand use mix and related fac- tors. Major studies include: o Irvine Regional Center, Irvine G Newport _Center, Newport Beach e Reeves Ranch, San Clemente o University City Center, San Diego o Village of Woodbridge, Irvine REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT PLANNING Analyses of redevelopment potential related to market support, Zand assemblage/value and financial feasibility. Major studies include: G Central Business District, Orlando o Central Business District, Phoenix o Lido Peninsula, Newport Beach e Mc Cul laugh Properties, Hous·ton o Pacific Ocean Park, Santa Monica HOUSING NEEDS/HOUSING ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS Performance of housing inventory studies to determine availa- bility, price range and stiuctural condition. Demand analysis concentrating on ability to pay versus.rent/housing payment levels, the needs of larger families and the elderly. Prepara- tion of lfousing Assisl;ance Plan data for HCD fund applications. Major studies include: o City of Lakewood • City of Santa Fe Springs SERVICES OFFERED COMMERCIAL-INDUS'J.'RIAL SITE LOG_AJ'.TON Analyses of alternative locations for industrial and office spac~ users covering general economic climate, labor demand/supply, wage rates, transportation, climate and related factors. Major studies ·include: ~ Industrial Location Criteria, Irvin~ Industrial Comp Zex, Ii•vine 0 Industrial Development Potential, Palomar Airport, Carlsbad ~ Comparative Wage Ra~es, Orange County HOTEL~RESORT PLANNING Analysis of market support and economic feasibility for commer>cial and reso~t hotel op~rations~ Major studies include: O Costa SmeraZda, Sardinia , Irvine-by-the-Sea, Newport/Laguna e KapaZua Resort, Maui, Hawaii 0 Las Vegas Hotel-Casino, Nevada ~-Walt Disney World, Orlando, Florida ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS The effect on population, employment, income, expenditures and investment resulting from new community developments as new in- dustrial plants, commerdiaZ projects, r~creation, educational facilities and residential developments. Major studies include: I Irvine Industrial Complex 6 University of C_aZifornia, Irvine I Newport Center~ Newport Beach. I Rancho Bernardo, San Diego I ( '·' SERVICES OFFERED F.TSCAL IMPACT ANAL.YSIS Via computer systems, the fiscal impact of new development on the governing agencies/school· district is performed. Highly detailed cost/revenue studies indicate anticipated net defi- cits or net benefits resulting from Zand development alterna- tives. Major studi e s include: 0 Bixby Properties, Long .Beach 6 City of Boca Raton, Florida (G~owth Management) 0 City of Newport Beach, _California (Fiscal Impact Analysis System) O Foothills PropertyJ Palo Alto ~ University of California, Irvine FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Via comp~ter systems, income and cash flow statements outline initial investment, loan disbursements, operating revenues/ costs and related c~iteria. Major studies include: 0 A.DMA Co., Inc. Properties, San Diego O Holstein Properties~ EZ Toro I Xapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii e Sequoia Pacific Properties, Santa Ana l , ( · -,rJE NE/lPOR1' ECONOMICS GROUP MAJOR HOUSING 'MARKET STUDIE'8 0 Chevron Prope1?ties., Bakersfield -Demand/Absorption Study. O. Chevron Prope1?ties., CaPpenteria -Conclominiwn Study.· 0 City of Boca Raton., Florida -Gro_wth Management. 8 City of Lal<ewood -Housing Inventory. 8 · City of Orlando., Florida -CBD RedeveZopment. 0 City of Santa Fe Springs -Resident Survey. 0 County of Orange -Housing Element. 0 Dominguez Ranch., Santa Ana Canyon -Demand Analysis for Attached and Detached Units. B I1>vine Ranch -Serie~ of Market Analyses for all Housing Types. · Q Kapalua Resort., Maui., Hawaii -· Condominium Study. 0 KX'aemer Ranch., Santa Ana Canyon -Condom1.:nium Study. 8 Liclo Peninsula., Newport Be'ach --Rede Ve Zopment Study. C Lv.sk P1°operties., Carlsbad -Condominium and Mobile Home Park Study. · 8 Mammot;h., California -Resorit/Conclominium S·tudy. $ MCK P1°oper•ties., Pe1?ris Lake, California Apartment/Mobile Home · Park Study. 8 Mission Hills Ranch., San Juan Capistrano Demand/Absorption/ Pricing Study. 0 Nohl Ranch, Orange -Condominium Study. G Penasquitos Ranch., San Diego -Series.of Housing Market Studies. 8 Reeves Ranch., San Clemente -Demand Analysis for At=tached and Detached Units. ·o Scripps Ranch, El Toro -Series of Studies. 0 Thibodo Ranch, San Diego Housing Market Analysis. 0 University City, San Diego -Series of Housing Market Studies. 0 University of California~ Irvine -Campus _ Impact on · Housing Demand. · · U Whiting Ranch; EZ Toro -Housing Mar•ket AnaZynis. /JRIZONA CoZoPado River 'Phoenix · Sco·ttsdale Tucson CALIFORNIA Anderson Apple VaUey Arcadia Bake1°s.fie ld Bermuda Dunes Canyon Lake Carlsbad Cathedral City "Chico Chi1io . · Colton Corona Costa Mesa Cupertino EZ Monte · E,'7, Toro Fountain VaZ Zey Fullerton . Garden G1?ove · Hemet Huntington Beach Inglewood · India.11. Tv'e l ls Indio I1?vine La JoUa Laguna Beach Lakewood Lancaster Long Beach Los Alamitos Los Angeles Ojai THE NEWPORT ECONOMI6S GROUP PROJECT LOCATIONS CALIFORNIA (Cont.) Mcoronoth Jlrission Viejo Modesto Newport Beach Ontario Palm Desert Palm Springs Perris Lake Palo Alto PaZoma1? Airport Rancho BernaJ?do Rancho Cucamonga Rancho Mirage Rancho·R~nasquitos Red Bluff · Redding Riverside San Berna1?dino San Clemente San Diego San Francisco· .San Jose • San Juan Ca-pis t1?ano Santa Ana Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Fe Springs Santa Monica Stanton Stockton Sunnyvale Torrance Ventura Victo1?vi Z le Vista Watsonvi Z le Westmvn..c;ter COLORADO Denver Stearrihoat Springs FLORIDA Boca Raton· Orlando Sarasota • Tainpa HAT-IAII KapaZua., Maui IDAHO Sun VaZZey ILLINOIS Chicago NEVEDA Lake Tahoe Las Vegas Pyramid La.ke Reno NEW MEXICO Albuquerque OKLAHOMA Tulsa TEXAS Clear Lake City DaZZas Houston San Antonio , . WASHINGTON Seattle Wl18!JINGTONl D. C. u SENIOR STAFF RESUMES ( . ( (' ROBERT J. DUNHAM PRESIDEN1' Robert Dunham ii the President of The N~wport Economics G~oup and has direct responsibility for _all corporate operations. His experience ~n economic a~alysis and market research spans twenty yem?s. Major projects he has di11ected include (1) a series of eco- nomic and fiscal impact andlyses for private sector urban developments, city/county governments and the University of California, ( 2) ma21ket support studies for many commercial, industrial, and residential land development projects nation- wide, (3) hotel-resort feasibility studies in Arizona, Cali- fo11nia, Hawaii and Nevada, and ( 4) Marina operation analyses in Newport Harbor and the ·colorado River. Prior to joining The Newport Economics Group, Mr. Dunham _u>as Manager of Economic Research "for The Irvine Company. In that capacity, he directed economic research and market plan- ning for new urban deve l.opmen ts inc lud'ing housing, office buildings, hotels, all types of 11 etail/service facilities, and industrial parks. Major individual projects include New-. port .Center, The Irvine Regional Center, and The Irvine Coastal Sector. Before relocating to Southern California., M11 • Dunham was Senior Ecoriomist for the Del E. Webb Corporation headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. He conducted economic and market research _studies in the western states and Cintral America covering a number of major retirement com~unities~ shopping centers, hotels ... . . , ana gam~ng cas~nos~ ~s an economist for the Arizona Employment Security Commission., he performed labor market studies, plant location analyses and u>age surveys for major employers. Mr. Dunham is a graduate of the University of Arizona with a Bachelor of Science deg:r•ce in Business Administration. He also completed substantial graduate work in Economics at Arizona State University. Mr. Dunham is actively associated with the National Association of Business Economists. (,•. FREDRICK fl. GOOD VICE,' PRESIDEN'P Fred Good serves as Vice President of ~he Newport Economics G~oup with program manag~ment· responsibilities in urban devel- opment p1,ojects and major investment a~alyses. His research ·and management experience covers virtually al·l phases of de- velopment; residential, commercial, and industrial. plant lo- cation studies. · Key developments in which he has been involved include Broad- way Plaza -a multi-use development in the Los Angeles CBD~ the Pacific Trade Center -a high-rise office complex in Hono~ Zulu, high-rise condominiums for Twentieth Century Fox, Cen- tury City and marina developments at Dana Point, The Channel Islands and Costa Smeralda, Sardinia. Present assignments include analyses of development potential and disposition of properties in the $an Pedro/L~ng Beach sec~ tor for the Community Redevelopment Agency in Los Angeles. Mr. Good's prior experience includes the position of Vice President, Urban studies for Economic Research Associates 1,n Los Angeles where he dir~cted numerous market support and economi~ feasi~ility studies for government and private in- dustry. For the Los Angeles CRA, Mr, Good was instrumental in devel~ oping specific plans for the Beacon Street Project on the San Pedro fvaterfront, For the Los Angeles Harbor Deparitment) he completed a comprehensive multiple use economic and finan- cial development plan fori San Pedro's Main Channel West Bank, Mr. Good initiated the economic revitalization plan for the City of South Pasadena (now.underway); assisted in the housk ing and commercial aspects of Pasadena. rs redevelopment; and ~baZuated the short and long term implications ·of the bond- ing program for the Urban Renewal Project at Redondo Beach's King Harbor Marina . . Previously, he was Senior Economist for SRI In te·rna t-f,ona Z in Menlo Park. Assignmentd covered a broad range of real estate and industrial projects. Mr. Good managed the economics de~ partment of the European Office-of SRI for an extendea period. He in a Bereke Zy graduate and received an MBA from .the Graduate School of Business at Stanford. lie is a member of Lambda Al~ pha, the International Honorary Land Economics Fraternity and the Western Economics Association, ·f 1/, EANcin C. HEDRICK JR. SE'NIOR AS80CLATE (' Sandy Hedrick is a Senior Associate with 12 years e:r;perience in the field of economic analysis related to real estate ·de- velopment and land use decision making. His ~xpertise encom- passes a wide range of public and private real estate projects., including recreation oriented development., resid~ntial devel- opment., comme1"cial projects, socio-economic. impact and cos ti benefit analyses. Recent Newport Economics studies directed by Mr. Hedrick ~n- clude a re-development project analyses in Long B~ach, a 1000 a~re custom home project in Ojai and a variety of Zand use studies. in Lancaster. Prio1• to joining Newport E(!onomics., Mr. Hedrick was a Vice President o.f Development Economics, Inc. (19?1-19?5) and a Senior Associate i,ith Economics Research Associates in Los Angeles for five years. In recreation economics, Mr. Hedrick has evaluated the econom- ic feasibility of an 1,100 acre resort development at Steam- boat Springs., Colorado., theme recreation parks near Denver., Colorado and Detroit., Michigan, res~rt-oriented condominiums., private and public marina development and recreation vehicle parks. In housing analysis., Mr. Hedrick has conducted market and fea- sibility studies for residential projects ranging from small single-family tracts and apartment projects to large master- planned community developments. Commercial studies have inclu4ed numerous market analyses, feasibility and planning studies for shopping centers, ranging from small neighbo1?hood cente11 s to major 11 egional shopping centers. He recently completed the m~rket and feasibility analysis for a major ·theme specialty retail center in Denver, Colorado. He participated in the feasibility analysis for the Broadway Plaza Center in downtown Los Angeles. Mr. Hedrick holds an M.B.A. from U.S.C. and a B.A. from Stanford University. in e·conomics JAME.'J P. REGAN C ( SENIOR ASSOCIATE Mr; Regan has m~nagement responsibility for a broad range of economic studies with specialization in resort development and urban studies. His consulting experience spans twelve years with projects completed.throughout many of the major metropolitan a1?eas in the United States, Mexico, Central America and the Mediterranean~ · He recently completed a series of housing market analyses for the Orange County Housing Element. The emphasis was on effective versus non-~ffective demand and alternative housing program strategies. Previously,· Jim Regan was a Vice President -Real Estate Programs for Economics Research Associates in Los Angeles. In that capacity, he directed a number of major community analysis programs. ·Loadlly, these included economic and fiscal impact studies of the Coyote Hills development in Fullerton) po1?tions of the c{ty_ of Orange master plan, the Broadway Plaza project in Los Angeles and Westlake Village. Additionally, he has performed similar studi~s in Atlantd, Dallas, Denver and Philadelphia. , . His res02?t experience includes a number of developments for FONATUR (tourism development agency) in Mexico, Manzani l lo, Pue1?to Vallarta and Acapu lea. Hate l and related resort activity feasibility studies have been conducted throughout the United States covering ski re- sorts in the Rocky Mountain area, hotel/golf/tennis re- sorts in Palm Springs and retirement/resort communities in San Diego. Mr. Regan holds a B.S. in chemistry from Marquette Univer- sity and an M. B. A. -Finance· fPom the Warton Graduate School pt the University of Pennysylvania. ·ne is a member of the American Land Development Associatioij and a member of the AIA Regional Urban Design Assistance Team. i i ! i - ., Apri 1 8, 1980 Mr. James C. Hagaman Planning Director City of· Carlsbad 1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California' 92008 Dear Mr. Hagaman: Per our discussions with Mr. Charles Grimm, we are prepared to amend our proposal for the Economic and Fiscal Impact Report. We will amend it to read that completion will be done within 10 weeks rather than the original 12 weeks stated. If you ·have any questions please feel free to call me. Sincerely, Robert J. Dunham President RJD/drc cc: Mr. Charles Grimm crrY o;:: c.\:~~ss.:: .. :) r-:z.;1;,t;13 ~:~:::~-~:~-;~.:;·i~ 1600 D01/E srnrn: SUiTE 320. NE\i':f'ORr BE/1CI-I. Ci\ ?2..'·,z,O -( / k;) S'i·I-C,392