Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020-01-21; City Council; ; Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle Miles Traveled calculationsMeeting Date: To: From: Staff Contact: Subject: Jan. 21,2020 Mayor and City Council Scott Chadwick, City Manager Paz Gomez, Deputy City Manager, Public Works paz.gomez@carlsbadca.gov, 760-602-2751 Gary Barberio, Deputy City Manager, Community Services gary.barberio@carlsbadca.gov, 760-434-2822 CA Review ft'lG, Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle Miles Traveled calculations Recommended Action Receive an informational presentation on the Climate Action Plan (CAP) update and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) calculations. Executive Summary The City of Carlsbad's CAP was adopted by the City Council in September 2015. As part of the monitoring required by the plan, staff determined that the plan's calculation of VMT was based on an incorrect input, which resulted in a lower greenhouse gas (GHG} inventory and GHG targets. Staff currently estimates that the city will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target through existing CAP measures. However, it appears that the amended 2035 GHG target will require the addition of a substantial GHG reduction measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as community choice energy (CCE}. Due to the error in the VMT calculation, the city's CAP likely does not currently constitute a qualified GHG reduction plan (Qualified Plan) under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA} Guidelines. Therefore, staff will not assess the GHG impacts of CEQA projects by using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the error is addressed. Staff is working with consultants to undertake a focused CAP update to correct the data on VMT, incorporate the Regional Climate Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) Snapshot 2016 inventory data and add new GHG reduction measures, such as CCE, to meet the revised GHG reduction targets. Discussion In September 2015, the city adopted a CAP that outlines actions the city will undertake to achieve its proportionate share of state GHG emissions reductions. Implementation of the CAP serves as mitigation under CEQA for the city's General Plan update and as a Qualified Plan in accordance with CEQA Guidelines. Later development projects may use consistency with a Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA GHG analyses. The CAP contains a baseline inventory of GHG emissions for 2005, an updated baseline inventory for 2011, and a calculation of the city's targets based on a reduction from the 2005 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 1 of 46 baseline. Consistent with state law ·and policy, the CAP set a target to achieve a 15% reduction of GHG emissions from the 2005 baseline by 2020 and a target to reduce GHG emissions below the 2005 baseline by 49% by 2035. The CAP relies on ongoing monitoring of GHG reduction measures and updates to the GHG inventory. If an updated GHG inventory reveals that the CAP is not making adequate progress toward meeting the GHG targets, the city must adjust the CAP by modifying, adding or replacing reduction measures. The San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG) collaborates with local agency staff and climate planning experts to prepare a ReCAP that provides jurisdiction-specific GHG emissions data and a technical framework for regionally consistent climate action planning. On Nov. 22, 2019, SAN DAG provided the City of Carlsbad with a ReCAP Snapshot that contains a 2016 GHG Inventory for assessing the city's CAP implementation efforts and for updating the city's CAP GHG inventory. The CAP anticipated that its GHG inventory and targets would be revisited and possibly amended to account for more current data, such as the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory. During ongoing CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP contains a calculation error that resulted in a lower GHG inventory and the CAP's GHG targets. Therefore, as part of staff's routine efforts to update the CAP with the 2016 inventory, staff will also address the apparent VMT calculation error. The CAP was developed to be a Qualified Plan under CEQA Guidelines. CEQA does riot require public agencies to develop a Qualified Plan; however, later development projects may use consistency with a Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA GHG analyses. Due to the VMT error, the CAP likely fails to constitute as a Qualified Plan. The VMT error resulted in a lower CAP GHG inventory that affected the GHG reduction targets, which contradicts the requirements under CEQA Guidelines. As such, staff will not assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed. Fiscal Analysis This is an informational item explaining the CAP update and VMT calculations; therefore, there is no fiscal impact related to this item. Next Steps Staff is currently incorporating the ReCAP Snapshot data and the fiscal year 2018-19 CAP Annual Report into a CAP Progress Report presentation to City Council with an anticipated presentation date in April 2020. To address the VMT error, in the short term, staff will develop supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to meet CEQA Qualified Plan requirements. Additionally, the city will undertake a focused CAP update to correct the VMT data, incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory data and add new GHG reduction measures, such as CCE, to meet the revised GHG reduction targets. Timelines for completion of these tasks will be provided at the April 2020 presentation. Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 2 of 46 In the longer term, by April 2021, staff will perform a comprehensive update to the CAP along with the city's Housing Element update. The Housing Element update will revise the city's residential density, which may increase the city's forecasted GHG emissions. This CAP update will determine whether the city remains on the trajectory to meet its GHG targets considering those land use changes. Environmental Evaluation (CEQA) Pursuant to Public Resources Code Section 21065, receiving an informational presentation on the CAP update and VMT calculations does not qualify as a "project" within the meaning of the CEQA. The informational presentation has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment, or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment, and therefore does not require environmental review. Public Notification and Outreach This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for public viewing and review at least 72 hours prior to the scheduled meeting date. Exhibit 1. Climate Action Plan Annual Reporting/Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Calculations Memo dated Jan. 13,2020 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 3 of 46 Memorandum January 13, 2020 To: From: CITY MANAGER CITY ATTORNEY ~ EXHIBIT 1 {city of Carlsbad Subject: CL/MA TE ACTION PLAN ANNUAL REPORTING/ VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) CALCULATIONS Executive Summary In April 2020, staff plan to present a CAP Progress Report to City Council that incorporates the City's Climate Action Plan (CAP) fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 Annual Report and ReCAP Snapshot data from the San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG). That presentation will describe that the ReCAP Snapshot reflects an apparent error in the current CAP's vehicle miles traveled (VMT) calculation. During CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP's VMT calculation is based on an incorrect input, which resulted in a materially understated greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and GHG targets. Staff currently estimate that the City will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target through existing CAP measures. However, it appears that the amended 2035 GHG target will require the addition of a substantial GHG reduction measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as Community Choice Energy. Staff will provide a further update on these impacts as part of the CAP Progress Report presentation. Due to the VMT error, the CAP likely does not currently constitute a qualified greenhouse reduction plan (Qualified Plan) under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15183.S(b). Therefore, staff will not assess the GHG impacts of CEQA projects by using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed. To address the VMT error, staff plan to do the following: (1) in the short term, develop supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address section 15183.S(b) requirements; and (2) undertake a focused CAP update to address section Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 4 of 46 Page 2 15183.5(b) requirements with the correct VMT figure1. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff will also update the CAP with the City's Housing Element update.2 I. Background In September 2015, the City adopted a CAP that outlines actions that the City will undertake to achieve its proportionate share of state GHG emissions reductions. Implementation of the CAP serves as mitigation under CEQA for the City's General Plan update and as a Qualified Plan in accordance with CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b).3 Compliance with section 15183.5(b) allows later development projects to use the CAP for their CEQA GHG analyses; projects above the CAP's screening threshold of 900 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) per year demonstrate consistency with the CAP under CEQA through a Consistency Checklist and/or a self-developed GHG emissions reduction program. The CAP contains a baseline inventory of GHG emissions for 2005, an updated baseline inventory for 2011, and a calculation of the City's targets based on a reduction from the 2005 baseline. According to the CAP, the City emitted 630,310 MTCO2e in 2005, 705,744 MTCO2e in 2011 and is projected to emit 1,007,473 MTCO2e in 2035. See CAP Section 2. Consistent with state law and policy, the CAP set a target to achieve a 15 percent reduction from the 2005 baseline by 2020 and a target to reduce emissions below the 2005 baseline by 49 percent by 2035. See CAP Section 3.1. To meet these targets, the CAP states the City must implement strategies that reduce emissions to 535,763 MTCO2e in 2020 and 321,458 MTCO2e in 2035. Id. The CAP relies upon ongoing monitoring of GHG reduction measures and updates to the GHG inventory. See CAP Section 5.2. If an updated GHG inventory reveals that the CAP in not making adequate progress toward meeting the GHG targets, the City must adjust the CAP by modifying, adding, or replacing reduction measures.4 II. Regional Climate Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) and FY 2018-19 CAP Annual Report SAN DAG collaborates with local agency staff and climate planning experts to prepare a Regional Climate Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) that provides jurisdiction-specific GHG emissions data and a technical framework for regionally-consistent climate action planning. On November 1 This update will revisit the CAP inventory and targets due to the VMT error, incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory data, and add new or revised GHG reduction measures as necessary to meet the amended targets. 2 The Housing Element update will revise the City's residential density, which may increase the City's forecasted GHG emissions. This CAP update will determine whether the City remains on the trajectory to meet its GHG targets considering those land use changes. 3 General Plan Sustainability Element, Policy 9-P.1 ("enforce the Climate Action Plan as the city's strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions") serves as CEQA mitigation for the General Plan update (see Table ES-3, impact 3.9-2, in the General Plan update EIR). 4 The CAP requires GHG inventory updates every three years. Seep. 5-15 of CAP. Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 5 of 46 Page 3 22, 2019, SAN DAG provided the City of Carlsbad with a ReCAP Snapshot that contains a 2016 GHG Inventory for assessing the City's CAP implementation efforts and for updating the City's CAP GHG inventory. Staff is currently incorporating the ReCAP Snapshot data and the FY 2018" 19 CAP Annual Report into a CAP Progress Report presentation to City Council, with an anticipated presentation date in April 2020. The CAP anticipated that its GHG inventory and targets would be revisited and possibly amended to account for more current data, such as the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory. However, that process assumed that the original CAP calculations did not contain material errors. As further described below, staff determined that the CAP contains a calculation error that resulted in materially lower figures for the CAP's GHG inventory and the CAP's GHG targets.5 Therefore, as part of staff's routine efforts to update the CAP with the 2016 inventory, staff will also address the apparent VMT calculation error. Ill. CAP VMT Calculations The City's CAP consultant intended to use the ICLEI Origin-Destination Method to calculate VMT.6 It is a regional travel demand model that captures trips that start (origin) or end (destination) within the boundary of the jurisdiction. This approach, which is endorsed by SAN DAG and is used for the ReCAP, excludes consideration of pass-through trips and is believed to best capture where a local government can affect passenger vehicle emissions. The Origin- Destination Method calculates VMT by taking 100% of the VMT for internal-internal trips, 50% of the VMT associated with internal-external/external-internal trips, and 0% of the VMT associated with external-external trips (see Attachment 2). During ongoing CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP used an incorrect figure for its internal-external/external-internal trips input in the Origin-Destination Method calculation.7 SAN DAG provides local jurisdictions with spreadsheets that contain the VMT calculation inputs; from that spreadsheet, the City's CAP consultant se lected an input for the internal- external/external-internal trips that was specific to Carlsbad when they should have selected the regionwide total input. The error resulted in 510,973,969 VMT compared to the correct 1,076,144,961 VMT.8 5 VMT is the largest contributor of community GHG emissions to the City's GHG inventory (39%). Seep. 2-6 of CAP. 6 Seep. 2-3 of CAP: "For transportation trips that originate or end in Carlsbad, emissions for half of the entire trip are included, and not just for the miles traveled within Carlsbad; however, trips that just pass through Carlsbad are excluded, as their emissions would be reflected at their trip ends." See also p. 5 of Aug. 23; 2013 D&B memorandum accompanying CAP: "The 2011 Inventory uses VMT excluding pass-through trips to capture transportation emissions from trips originating or ending within the City of Carlsbad ... pass-through trips were excluded from this inventory." 7 This type of error occurred with other climate action plans developed in 2015 or earlier. The City of San Diego and City of La Mesa discovered and corrected this type of error prior to finalizing their climate action plans. 8 These figures reflect year 2012 data. Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 6 of 46 Page 4 Staff is now updating the CAP to address the VMT error and to incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory data. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff will update the CAP as necessary in relation to the City's Housing Element update. Staff is also developing supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b) requirements (See Section VI below). Staff currently estimate that the City will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target through existing CAP measures. However, it appears that the amended 2035 GHG target will require the addition of substantial GHG reduction measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as Community Choice Energy. Staff will provide a further update on these impacts as part cif the CAP Progress Report presentation to City Council. IV. CAP as Qualified Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan The CAP was developed to be a Qualified Plan under CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5{b). CEQA does not require public agencies to develop a Qualified Plan, however later development projects may use consistency with a Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA,GHG analyses. The use of a Qualified Plan is one of a few pathways that may be used to assess a CEQA project's GHG impacts. See Center for Biological Diversity v. California Department of Fish and Wildlife and Newhall Land and Farming (2015) 224 Cal. App. 4th 1105 (Newhall Ranch case). A lead agency may determine that a project's incremental contribution to ·a cumulative effect is not cumulatively considerable (i.e., that the project's GHG impact is less than significant) if the project complies with a Qualified Plan. Section 15183.S(b) requires that a Qualified Plan do the following: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) quantify greenhouse gas emissions, both existing and projected over a specified time period, resulting from activities within a defined geographic area; establish a level, based on substantial evidence, below which the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions from activities covered by the plan would not be cumulatively considerable; identify and analyze the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from specific actions or categories of actions anticipated within the geographic area; specify measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis, ~ould collectively achieve the specified emissions level; and establish a mechanism to monitor the plan's progress toward achieving the level and to require amendment if the plan is not achieving specified levels; and be adopted in a public process following environmental review. Due to the VMT error, the CAP likely fails to constitute a Qualified Plan. The VMT error resulted in a materially understated CAP GHG inventory that affected the GHG reduction targets, which contradicts the requirements under CEQA Guidelines Sections 15183.S(b)(l)(A)-(B). A Qualified Plan must also develop measures or a group of measures that would meet the specified emissions level if implemented on a project-by-project basis. CEQA Guidelines § 15183.S(b){l)(D). The VMT error requires the addition of new GHG reduction measure(s) to the Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 7 of 46 · Page 5 CAP to meet the corrected reduction targets, and it is currently unknown which measure(s) will be added to the CAP and how the CAP Checklist for development projects will be updated to reflect these changes. Considering these issues, staff will not assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed. V. Next Steps To address the VMT error, staff will do the following: (1) in the short term, develop supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address section 15183.S{b) requirements; and {2) undertake a focused CAP update to address section 15183.S{b) requirements with the correct VMT figure, which will also incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory data. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff will also update the CAP with the City's Housing Element update. While the CAP is updated to fully meet Qualified Plan requirements, development projects could use the supplementary data described in (1) to tier from the E.IR for the General Plan update and CAP. See CEQA Guidelines§ 15183.S(a).9 In addition to tiering, the Newhall Ranch case provides some possible options for a sufficient GHG impact a~alysis in the absence of a Qualified Plan. The City Attorney's Office will continue to assist City staff in reviewing this matter and applying GHG analysis methods to development projects until the CAP is updated to address CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.S{b) requirements. AM~¾ Deputy City Attorney Attachments 1. FY 2018-19 CAP Annual Report 2. SANDAG ReCap Excerpts 9 CEQA Guidelines § 15385. "Tiering" refers to the "coverage of general matters in broader EIRs ... with subsequent narrower El Rs or ultimately site-specific EIRs incorporating by reference the general discussions and concentrating solely on the issues specific to the EIR subsequently prepared." Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 8 of 46 City of Carlsbad Climate Action Plan Annual Report Reporting Year 3: July 1, 2018 -June 30, 2019 August 2019 City of Carlsbad Environmental Management 1635 Faraday Avenue Carlsbad, CA 92008 Contact: Mike Grim, CAP Administrator mike.grim@carlsbadca.gov; 760-602-4623 {city of Carlsbad Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 9 of 46 This page intentionally left blank. Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 10 of 46 Table of Contents Page I. lntroduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 II. Background on Climate Action Plan .................................................................................................... 1 111., CAP Measures and Actions ................................................................................................................... 5 A. Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................................................... 5 B. Renewable Energy ..... , ....................................................................................................................... 5 C. Transportation .................................................................................................................................. 6 D. Water ................................................................................................................................................ 7 E. Public Outreach and Education .................... · ..................................................................................... 7 IV. New Development Projects .................................................................................................................. 8 V. Monitoring ............................................................................................................................................. 8 A. Renewable Energy ............................................................................................................................. 8 B. Electric Vehicles ............................................................ : ................................................................. 10 C. Transportation General Plan Policies .............................................................................................. 12 VI. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast.. ........................................................................................... 14 VII. Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Appendix A -FY 18-19 CAP Implementation Activities Tables and Figures Figure 1-2011 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ................................................................................. 2 Table 1-2011 Community GHG Emissions by Sector .................................................................................. 2 Table 2 -CAP Measures and GHG.Reductions ............................................................................................ , 4 Table 3 -PV System Installations in Reporting Year 3 (FY 18-19) ........................................................................ 9 Figure 2 -Residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Target ................................................. : ..... 9 Figure 3 -Non-residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Target.. ........................................... 10 Figure 4 -CVRP Participation in Carlsbad 2011-2018 ......................................................................................... 11 Table 4 -Electric Vehicle Charging Station Installations in Reporting Year 3 (FY 18-19) ............................... 11 Figure 5 -Bikeways by Classification .......................................................................................................... 13 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 11 of 46 This page intentionally left blank. Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 12 of 46 I. Introduction The purpose of this document is to provide an update on the status of the Climate_ Action Plan (CAP) implementation that occurred during the current reporting period. The CAP requires that the city annually monitor and report on CAP implementation activities, and present this report to the City Council in a public meeting. Give.n that CAP implementation is tied to the budget cycle, staff chose the fiscal year calendar to be the reporting period. Th is Year 3 annual report covers the FY 18-19 reporting period (July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019). II. Background on Climate Action Plan The City of Carlsbad's Climate Action Plan (CAP) was adopted on Sept. 22, 2015, along with the General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report. The purpose of the CAP is to describe how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within Carlsbad will be reduced in accordance with statewide targets. Chapter 2 of the CAP contains information about the 2011 GHG inventory conducted at the time _of CAP development. A GHG inventory identifies the major sources and overall magnitude of GHG emissions in the city using standard modeling methods and protocols. Typical inputs include electricity consumed, natural gas consumed, vehicles miles traveled, solid waste disposed, wastewater treated and potable and recycled water used. Chapter 3 of the CAP contains a discussion of the forecasting used to determine the city's GHG targets for 2020 and 2035, as well as the GHG reductions anticipated by state and federal policies and certain General Plan policies. Chapter 4 of the CAP describes the additional Measures and Actions that the city must pursue to reach its GHG emissions reduction targets. To implement these additional Measures and Actions, the city needed to identify and allocate appropriate funding. Therefore, subsequent to CAP adoption, staff contracted with University of San Diego's Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) to study incremental internal costs to the city for CAP implementation. All of the participating city departments and divisions were surveyed to quantify the resources needed to effectively implement the CAP. On Feb. 23, 2016, · staff presented the findings of the study to City Council and noted that these costs would be included in subsequent departmental budget requests. CAP implementation is a team effort involving a number of city departments and divisions, coordinated by the CAP Administrator. The interdepartmental CAP implementation team consists of Public Works (PW) -General Services, PW -Traffic and Mobility, PW-Environmental Management, PW -Utilities, Community and Economic Development-Planning, Parks & Recreation, Finance, City Attorney Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 1 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 13 of 46 Of the total emissions in 2011, 96% are attributed to the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors {e.g. buildings and automobiles). This emissions profile by sector is typical of other cities; therefore, similar to most other CAPs, Carlsbad's CAP focuses primarily on GHG emissions reduction strategies on these sectors. Forecasts for the Carlsbad CAP were conducted for 2020 and 2035 GHG emissions using the Statewide Energy Efficiency Collaborative {SEEC) model. The CAP used the 2005 inventory as the baseline. The first step in forecasting is to determine what is known as the "Business-As- Usual" (BAU) projection. This projection is the amount of GHG emissions increase anticipated over time due to population and job growth and vehicular traffic levels. The forecast then deducts the anticipated emissions reductions derived from state and federal policies, such as low carbon fuel standards, building energy code requirements and the state's requirement for utilities to provide electricity from renewable energy sources (known as the Renewable Portfolio Standard or RPS). The Carlsbad CAP considered another category of anticipated GHG emissions reduction from the BAU projections: additional General Plan·policies and actions. These policies and actions dea l with the transportation sector and include bikeway and pedestrian system improvements, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements. After deducting these anticipated GHG emissions reductions from the BAU projection, the model then calculates the amount of additional GHG emissions reductions needed to reach the 2020 and 2035 targets. The statewide targets used for the CAP are taken from Executive Order S-3-05 (EO S-3-05) and . . the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, Assembly Bill {AB) 32. EO S-3-05 calls for a reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. For Carlsbad, the targets are 15% below the 2005 baseline by 2020 and 49% below the 2005 baseline by 2035. The additional GHG emissions reductions necessary to reach the targets are known as the CAP Measures; these measures are noted in Table 2. Each Measure has Actions, which once implemented by the city, will result in the modeled GHG emissions reductions also shown in Table 2. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 3 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 15 of 46 Table 2 -CAP Measures and GHG Reductions Measure Letter GHG Reduction Measures A Install residential photovoltaic (PV) systems B Install.commercial and industrial PV systems C Promote building cogeneration for large commercial and industrial facilities D Encourage single-fc!mily residential efficiency retrofits E Encourage multi-family residential efficiency retrofits F Encourage commercial and city facility efficiency retrofits Promote commercial and city facility G commissioning, or improving building operations H Implementation of Green Building Code I Replace Incandescent bulbs with LED bulbs New construction residential and commercial J solar water heater/heat pump installation and retrofit of existing residential I< Promote Transportation Demand Management L Increase zero-emissions vehicle travel M Develop more citywide renewable energy projects N Reduce the GHG intensity of water supply conveyance, treatment and delivery 0 Encoura,ge the installation of greywater and rainwater systems Total GHG Reductions Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page4 GHG Reduction GHG Reduction in 2020 in 2035 (MTCO2e) (MTCO2e) 2,896 10,136 3,810 13,336 305 1,067 323 1,132 100 351 5,251 18,377 5,251 18,377 51 179 6,257 21,900 3,315 11,604 6,728 23,549 15,474 54,158 1,309 4,580 1,705 5,968 344 1,205 53,199 185,'919 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 16 of 46 Ill. CAP Measures and Actions The CAP Measures listed in Table 2 can be grouped into four strategy areas: Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Transportation and Water. For each of the Measures, there are detailed Actions that, taken together, sho.uld result in the anticipated GHG emissions reductions. Each of the Actions has an implementation timeframe. Short-term Actions should be completed within the first two years of CAP implementation; mid-term Actions should be completed within five years; and, long-term Actions begin implementation in the first two to five years but will not be completed within that timeframe. The following section describes the progress made by the city in implementing the CAP measures and actions, organized by the different strategy areas. A more detailed description of activities conducted for each CAP Action, along with the 2035 performance goals for each Measure, is contained in Appendix A of this report. The activities involving public outreach and education are described in a separate section, since those efforts cross over all strategy areas. A. Energy Efficiency Energy efficiency is an important component to reducing energy consumption and lowering GHG emissions. The State of California's Energy Commission (CEC} has adopted a "loading order," a prioritized list of actions needed to reduce energy use, and energy efficiency is at the top of the list. For Carlsbad, energy efficiency CAP Measures account for almost a third of the planned GHG emissions reductions. Measures D, E, F, G, H and I all deal with energy efficiency, both in the community and municipal operations. These Measures call for ordinances mandating energy efficiency improvements in residential and non-residential construction, commissioning of commercial and city facilities, implementation of energy conservation measures in city facilities, and promotion of energy efficiency rebate and incentive programs. During the reporting period, staff continued to make progress in implementing the energy efficiency related Measures. On Marc_h 12, 2019, City Council adopted energy efficiency ordinances for major renovations of existing residential and non-residential buildings. PW - General Services upgraded seven heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) units at the Faraday Center. LED lighting was installed at the Carlsbad City Library, Safety Training Center and Oak Avenue paint shop area. West facing windows at the Safety Training Center were tinted. B. Renewable Energy The provision of energy through distributed renewable sources can significantly reduce the need for .electricity from the grid and, therefore, lower GHG emissions. The CEC's loading order prioritization of energy efficiency is to lessen the amount of energy used, thereby minimizing Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 5 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 17 of 46 the size and cost of the renewable energy system needed to power the building. According to the CAP, renewable energy Measures will account for about one-fifth of the planned GHG emissions reductions. Measures A, B, C, J and M relate to community and city renewable energy improvements. These Measures include ordinances requiring PV systems in new residential and non-residential construction and existing commercial buildings, cogeneration in larger non-residential buildings, alternative energy water heating systems, citywide renewable energy projects, and promotion of renewable energy rebate and incentive programs. Cogeneration involves the generation of electricity and another form of energy, such as using steam to provide heating for a building. On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted ordinances requiring installation of solar photovoltaic (PV panels) for all new non-residential development and major renovations of existing non- residential buildings, as well as alternative energy water heating for all new residential and non- residential development C. Transportation There are two primary facets of GHG emissions reductions related to transportation. The first is to reduce the nu,mber of miles a vehicle is driven. Each mile driven represents an emission of GHG. Reducing the length of trips, or the need to use a motorized vehicle, can significantly reduce GHG emissions. The second facet of transportation-related GHG emissions is to reduce or eliminate the GHG emissions coming from vehicles. Known as low-or zero-emissions vehicles, these automobiles include alternative-fueled vehicles, hybrids and electric vehicles. ' ' Taken together, reduction of vehicle miles traveled and tailpipe emissions represents the largest single GHG emissions reduction strategy area. In the Carlsbad CAP, transportation- related Measures total over 40% of the planned GHG emissions reductions. Measures Kand L address the transportation related GHG emissions reductions. Measure K relates to reducing vehicle miles traveled and is closely tied to the policies contained in the General Plan Mobility Element. On Feb. 26, 2019, the City Council approved a Transportation Demand Management (TDM) plan and ordinance. Staff released a Request for Proposals in March 2019 to solicit TDM consulting services. Measure L involves reducing tailpipe emissions through an increase in the proportion of low- and zero-emission vehicles on the road. On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted an ordinance requiring installation of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure for all new residential and non-residential development and major renovations of existing residential buildings. Other activities during the reporting period included the purchase of ten plug-in hybrid city fleet vehicles and installation of 20 fleet and employee EV charging stations, 10 at the Faraday Center and 10 at the Carlsbad City Library. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 6 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 18 of 46 IV. New Development Projects The CAP serves as an environmental review tiering document pursuant to Section 15183.5 of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines: According to the CAP, any discretionary project that will have GHG emissions greater than 900 MTC02e must either demonstrate consistency with the CAP or submit a project-specific GHG analysis for review and approval. During the reporting period, the Planning Division continued to implement the Climate Action Plan Consistency Checklist and accompanying Guidance for Demonstrating Consistency with the Climate Action Plan -For Discretionary Projects Subject to CEQA. The Checklist and Guidelines are available at: http://www.carl sbadca.gov/services/building/forms/default.asp. The CAP states that new projects demonstrated to emit less than 900 MTC02e would not contribute considerably to cumulative climate change impacts, and therefore do not need to demonstrate consistency with the CAP. No development projects approved during the reporting period met or exceeded the 900 MTC02e threshold. V. Monitoring Monitoring of CAP implementation can be divided into three general areas: 1) progress on implementing the CAP Actions; 2) progress on reaching the CAP Measures' performance goals; and, 3) progress in reaching the CAP GHG emissions reductions targets for 2020 and 2035. A detailed description of the activities undertaken to implement the CAP Actions is contained in Appendix A. Regarding the CAP Measures and their corresponding performance goals, there is variability in the monitoring data sources. For example, monitoring for Measures D, E, F and G require San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) electric and natural gas energy usage. Monitoring for Measure L requires vehicle miles traveled (VMT) model output data. The energy usage and VMT data will be collected during the biannual GHG inventory process, conducted by SAN DAG, and reported in the corresponding CAP Annual Report. A. Renewable Energy Measures A and B involve increasing the amo~nt of residential and non-residential solar PV systems in Carlsbad. Data for the reporting period were obtained from the permit activity in the city's EnerGov system. Table 3 shows the number and capacity in kilowatts (kW) of PV system installations in the residential and non-residential sectors during the reporting period. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 8 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 20 of 46 Location EV Service Provider Access NumiJer/Type of Ports Laurel Tree Apartments Charge Point Unrestricted 6 L2 Thermo Fisher ChargePoint Restricted 20 L2 2051 Palomar ChargePoint Restricted 20 L2 City of Carlsbad Faraday Center Green lots Restricted 10 L2 Carlsbad City Library Green lots Restricted 10 L2 L2 = Level 2 chargers; DFCF = DC fast chargers With the exception of the ThermoFisher and City of Carlsbad charging stations, all other workplace/fleet installations were constructed through SDG&E's Power Your Drive program. The installations at the two city facility sites were constructed through the Electrify America program. C. Transportation General Plan Policies In addition to the CAP Measures and Actions described in Section Ill, the CAP also relies upon implementation of some transportation related General Plan policies for GHG reductions. These policies involve bikeway system improvements, pedestrian improvements and increased connectivity, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements. While the overall GHG reduction of these General Plan policies is relatively small {less than 4.5% of 2035 reductions) it is important to track progress in completing these improvements because they contribute increased and multimodal mobility within the city. Bikeway and Pedestrian System Improvements There were several improvements to the bikeway and pedestrian system during the reporting period. In addition to the installation of a rectangular rapid flashing beacon for pedestrian crossing at the intersection of Alicante Road and Lap is Road, major projects included: · 2018-19 Slurry Seal -Added a four-foot buffer to existing bike lanes on both sides along Poinsettia Lane,.from El Camino Real to Melrose Drive. 2018 Concrete Replacement: • Replaced 14 non-compliant and damaged curb ramps • Replaced over 5,000 linear feet of broken or uplifted sidewalk (approximately 25,000 square feet) • Relocated light pole, removed tree and installed missing piece of sidewalk on La Costa Avenue to complete pedestrian path. The city currently has 188.05 miles of bikeways, as shown in Figure 5. A total of 6.02 miles of bikeways were added to the system during the reporting period. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 12 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 24 of 46 Parking Facilities and Policies On Sept. 26, 2017, the City Council accepted a Parking Management Plan (PMP) for the Carlsbad Village, Barrio and Beach Area, which contains many of the parking policies described in the CAP. Implementation of the plan will occur through the Carlsbad Village and Barrio Master Plan (adopted by City Council on July 24, 2018). The recommendations in the PMP include hiring a parking program management program manager, incentivizing shared and leased parking, reducing parking requirements, allowing bicycle parking as a replacement for required parking, and installing digital parking locator infrastructure and wayfinding signs. Transportation Improvements During the reporting period, staff continued coordination with North County Transit District (NCTD) in the finalization of the city's Trolley Feasibility Study and the development of the Carlsbad Connector, a first mile/last mile service connecting the Poinsettia Commuter Rail Station to the employment centers in the city's industrial parks. VI. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast As stated in the CAP Annual Report 2, dated August 2018, the city is participating in SANDAG's Climate Planning Services GHG inventory program and will receive a no-cost GHG inventory every two to three years. As of June 30, 2019, the 2016 inventory was not received and, therefore, it is not included in this annual report for Reporting Year 3 (July 1, 2018 -June 30, 2019). The SAN DAG-prepared 2016 inventory will differ from the GHG inventory contained in the CAP in several ways. It will include emissions from energy used for water conveyance and treatment. It will also include the electricity-related emissions from the Claude "Bud" Lewis Desalination Plant, which was not operational in 2011 when the CAP emissions where calculated. Lastly, the methodology for deriving transportation-related emissions, or VMT, used in the 2016 inventory is different from that used in the CAP. In addition to the changes in GHG inventory components and derivation, the CARB issued new guidance on GHG emissions target setting and forecasting through their 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan . Issued in November 2017, the Scoping Plan aligns the forecasting and target setting protocols in accordance with California's 2030 GHG emissions targets. The city contracted with EPIC to use the 2016 GHG inventory to forecast GHG emissions, derive targets, and evaluate the city's progress in reaching its targets. EPJC will use the Scoping Plan guidance to derive the updated targets and forecasts. Once the 2016 inventory is received, and the targets and forecast are established, staff will present the findings to the City Council and make recommendations on updating CAP Measures and Actions if needed. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 14 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 26 of 46 VII. Summary During the third year of CAP implementation, staff continued to make progress in carrying out the CAP Measures and Actions. During the next fiscal and reporting year, staff will continue to work and coordinate with consultants, SANDAG, SDG&E and other regional and business partners to further CAP implementation and continue to lower GHG emissions. Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 15 August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 27 of 46 Appendix A FY 18-19 CAP Implementation Activities by Measures and Actions Carlsbad CAP Annual Report Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page i August 2019 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 28 of 46 At the time of CAP adoption, the City of Carlsbad was requiring compliance with 2013 version of Adopt residential and commercial energy conservation CalGreen. On June 27, 2017, the city adopted the 2016 version of CalGreen, which significantly H-1 ordinances requiring a 5% improvement in energy efficiency for increases energy efficiency of newly constructed buildings, far peyond the 5% called for in Action residential and nonresidential new construction, above the H-1. For example, single family homes constructed under the 2016 standards will use about 28% existing City or Carlsbad green building code. (Short-term) less energy for lighting, heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating than those built to the 2013 standards . .. I -Promote replacement ofincand.escent and halogen bulbs with ~E.P or other energy efficient lamps ,. Repl~ce 50% of ipcandesteot and halogen light bulbs citywide withUD or siniilarly efficient lighting by 2035 .. , .... ~-;•;:. ·~· !~· ' . ... ~ .) . •· " Replace 50% of incandescent or halogen light bulbs In city facilities with LED or similarly efficient lighting, or follow Staff installed replacement LED lighting at the Carlsbad City Library, Safety Training Center and the 1-1 SAN DAG Energy Roadmap recommendations for lighting in city facilities, whichever results·in greater energy savings. (Short-Oak Avenue paint shop area area. term) Promote the use of LED or other energy efficient lamps by 1-2 publicizing rebate programs and information from SDG&E on Staff maintained a website, made comm.unity presentations, and published articles in newsletters the benefits of the use of LED or other energy efficient·lighting and newspapers. on the city's webpage. (Short-term) In 2018, the CSE performed a qualitative feasibility evaluation for natural lighting and ventilation. CSE determined that it would be difficult to provide a cost-effective natural ventilation requirement that goes beyond the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The primary reason is that, while natural 11entilation could meet some of a nonresidential building's cooling load due Evaluate the feasibility of adopting a minimum natural lighting to Carlsbad's moderate climate, the 2019 California state building code nevertheless requires that 1-3.i and ventilation standard, developed based on local conditions. a building's mechanical ventilation system be sized to meet the full cooling load to ensure that (Mid-term) safe indoor air quality is maintained. As such, the cost of providing natural ventilation would not be offset by a reduced mechanical ventilation system. With regards to natural lighting, CSE noted that nonresidential natural lighting is well-governed in state codes, reducing the need for additional local standards. Cost-effectiveness analysis typically a-v Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 33 of 46 1-3.ii Demonstrate natural lighti'ng and ventilation features in future facility upgrade or new construction. (Mid-term) includes recommendations to alter building geometry to allow more daylight into the space. Daylighting requirements that may impact the architectural design and layout are challenging to enforce and are susceptible to heightened industry resistance. Daylight dimming plus off lighting control is a simple, cost-effective measure provided in the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency .Standards, as it does-not require architectural geometry or design changes. Daylighting in residential spaces is less likely to be cost-effective than in nonresidential spaces because the code assumes occupants are not typically present in residential spaces during the.day to take advantage of daylighting; therefore, the cost of these controls may not be offset by the savings. There are no known reach codes that include natural lighting and/or natural ventilation requirements that go beyond current code requirements. The feasibility assessment also concluded that there are no known reach codes that include natural lighting and/or natural.ventilation requirements that go beyond current code requirements. Staff is evaluating potential future city projects to demonstrate natural lighting and ventilation. . · .. ; •, •• ... ,; • •\i, • O• , .:,••. , ·, , C "<i , ,·., ,, . :·••.-,,,• .' ', ) a,•·,,,;• ,, J -New construction resi_dential and comriiercial solar water heater/heat pump installation"& r.etrofit of.existlngrei;°idential . • : ;:,, _ _._, _ln_stall solarwater heaters qd1eat purnps ~',, all ne\<.( resi9-eQtial ~n,,d cornrnersial co_nstru.i:tion. R·etrofit up,tG> 3P.% of existing t)omes ~nd· comrne.'.clal.)J_~jldi_ng;:_to irn;:lu~~--sqlar \r~ater.he,ate~~_ort,eatpumps. -.. ·:,,., .:: I ., ~.-_ .-.. , , . .,-' ·!i,, -t ;'_,.,n• J-1 J-2 Promote the installation of residential solar water heaters and heat pumps by publicizing incentive, rebate and financing programs, such as PACE programs and the California Solar Initiative for renovations of existing buildings by posting this information on the city's website and by other means. /Short- term) Adopt residential and commercial energy conservation ordinances requiring new residential and commercial buildings to install solar water heaters or heat pumps, or use alternative energy '(such as PV-generated electricity) for water heating needs. (Short-term} Staff maintained a website, made community presentations, and published articles in newsletters and newspapers. On March 12, 20~9, City Council adopted Ordinance Nos. CS-347 and CS-348, which require new residential and nonresidential buildings to install solar thermal water heating or electric heat pump water heaters for water heating needs. The ordinances were submitted to the California Energy Commission for review on March 14, 2019. The ordinances will be enforceable once they are approved by the Commission. As of June 30, 2019, the ordinances were scheduled for approval at the Commission's Aug. 14, 2019, business meeting. a-vi Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 34 of 46 Working with industry partners, construct a "PV to EV" pilot Staff continues to assess the feasibility of a direct "PV to EV" pilot project(s). During the reporting project to install a PV charging station at_a city facility (such as period, staff received estimates for a transportable PV to EV unit and worked with local trade L-1 Faraday Center) to charge city ZEVs. The purpose of the pilot organizations to develop a Request for Information (RFI). The RFI will seek information on all project would be to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating forms of PV to EV projects. more ZEV into the city's fleet. (Short-term) Prepare a community-wide charging station siting plan, which Staff prepared a mapping and travel distance analysis of existing and future EV charging sites and identified gaps in service areas. The locations of city-owned public properties and commercial L-2 evaluates site visibility and exposure, EV driving ranges, high centers that do not currently have EV charging infrastructure were then evaluated as to their volume destinations, locations with high ownership or interest ability to fill those gaps. The results of that mapping analysis is contained in Section V of the in EVs, and cost of construction. (Short-term) annual report. Construct ZEV charging stations based on the community-wide charging station siting plan described in L-2 above. The ZEV On Dec. 18, 2018, City Council authorized city participation in the Electrify America program, L-3 charging stations will be funded by grant funds when available, which provided 20 staff/fleet charging stations; 10 at the Faraday Center and 10 at Carlsbad City and the city will post signage directing ZEVs to charging Library. The charging stations were activated in May and June of 2019. stations. (Mid-term) On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which-requires new residential and nonresidential buildings to install EV charging infrastructure. New one and two-family homes, Offer dedicated ZEV parking, and provide charging stations and townhouses with attached private garages must have a complete circuit installed and ready L-4 adjacent to ZEV parking as identified in the community-wide for EV charging supply equipment (EVSE). Multifamily residential and nonresidential buildings charging station siting plan. (Mid-term) must provide EVSE for up to 10% of its parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to certain major renovations of existing residential sites and buildings. The ordinance became effective on April 11, 2019. On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new residential and nonresidential buildings to install EV charging infrastructure. New one and two-family homes, L-5 Adopt requirements for ZEV parking for new developments. and townhouses with attached private garages must have a complete circuit installed and ready (Short-term) for EVSE. Multifamily residential and nonresidential buildings must provide EVSE for up to 10% of its parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to certain major renovat'ions of existing · residential sites and buildings. The ordinance became effective on April 11, 2019. Adopt a residential energy conservation ordinance, similar to On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new one and two- family homes, and townhouses with attached private garages to have a complete circuit installed L-6 Palo Alto, requiring the installation of EV chargers or pre-wiring and ready for EVSE. Multifamily residential buildings must provide EVSE for up to lb% of its in new residential construction and major renovations. (Short-parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to major renovations of existing residential sites term) and buildings, as defined in the ordinance. The ordinance became effective on April 11, 2019. a-viii Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 36 of 46 C. ,. ·,, O -Encourage the lnstallati~n of greywafor and ~ainwater systems Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater collections systems )Nith a_goal of 15%of homes by 2035. .,' >,. . ., .. Host workshops on greywater and rainwater collection systems CMWD participated in a rain barrel rebate program with other north San Diego County water through the Carlsbad Municipal Water District, or partner with 0·1 existing workshop providers, for homeowners interested in districts to encourage and provide financial incentive for rainwater collections systems. Details on installing systems suitable for their property. (Mid-term) the program can be found at: https://www.rainwatersolutions.com/products/northc~unty Create a greywater design reference manual, or provide links This is a mid-term action, planned for Years 3 -5. There was no activity on this action during the 0-2 to an existing one, for the de.sign of greywater and rainwater collection systems. (Mid-term) reporting period. Evaluate the feasibility of offering a rebate for residential This is a mid-term action, planned for Years 3 -5. There was no activity on this action during the 0-3 greywater systems that require a permit to cover the cost of obtaining a permit. /Mid-term) reporting period. a-x Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 38 of 46 ReCAP: Technical Appendix I 3.4.4 Limitations of method used to calculate emissions from the natural gas category Natural g~s for electricity generation As discussed in the activity data collection section, the natural gas delivered to power plants and co- generation plants primarily used for grid electricity supply is not included in this category. However, the co-generation plants may use or sell the excess heat output (the by-product of electricity generation) or use the electricity generated for other on-site facilities. limited information is available to determine how much natural gas or excess heat output are consumed on-site. Some of the co-generation plants in the San Diego region are subject to the EPA or CARB mandatory GHG reporting program, but only the total GHG emissions at the facility-level are available. More detailed analysis is needed to develop a more accurate assessment of the emissions from these facilities. Out-of-boundary jurisdiction-owned facilities Similar to the limitations in collecting electricity use data, the natural gas data are limited to the customer addresses located within the jurisdiction's boundary. The data do not include natural gas at out-of- boundary jurisdiction-owned facilities, unless they have been identified and specially added to the energy data request. Emission factor updates The natural gas heat content is based on the characteristics of natural gas delivered to California customers. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) updates the heat content monthly, including the historic value. The historic value used may not match the latest update of historic value or the latest updates of the CARB statewide inventory. The latest natural gas heat content from CARS statewide inventory is used for the emission factor calculation'. 3.5 GH G emissions from the on-road transportation category The GHG emissions from on-road transportation include the tailpipe emissions associated with VMT in the San Diego region from all vehicles, including passenger cars, light-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. The emissions calculation method is based on 'TR.1 Emissions from Passenger Vehicles' and 'TR.2 Emissions from Freight and Service Trucks' of the U.S Community Protocol using activity data (VMT) from SANDAG's travel demand model and an emission factor (grams CO2eNMT) based on the CARS mobile source emissions factor model (EMFAC). 3.5.1 Activity -vehicle miles traveled In contrast with the activity data used for electricity and natural gas categories, activity data for the transportation category is modeled (not measured) based on the best available information regarding travel demand. The U.S. Community Protocol recommends jurisdictions use a regional travel demand model to capture trips that start (origin) or end (destination) within the boundary of the jurisdiction, as it recognizes that ''local government cannot influence all passenger vehi\:le's GHG emissions within city boundaries. As such, the recommended origin-destination method (using an assignment-based travel demand model) better captures a local government's ability to affect passenger vehicles emissions" (ICLEI 2013, Appx. D p.8). In the San Diego region, SANDAG uses an activity-based model (ABM) to support development of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and generate outputs related to the transportation system performance. Every three to five years, SAN DAG produces the Regional Growth Forecast, a long-range forecast of population, housing, and employment growth for the San Diego region. SANDAG updates the ABM with inputs from the Regional Growth Forecast and performs various model calibrations with updated model inputs, parameters and software updates in between the model update years (SANDAG, 2016). Each Regional Growth Forecast is named a new Series. The most recent forecast is the Series 13, 2050 Regional Growth Forecast with a base year of 2012. (SANDAG,ilf" Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Selection I 1G Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 40 of 46 ReCAP: Technical Appendix I The SANDAG VMT data are provided in miles per weekday, and the last steps to calculate total VMT for a community are to convert average weekday VMT to average daily VMT, then calculate annual VMT. The weekday to annual conversion factor is based on the conversion factor from average weekday to annual (347 weekdays to 365 days per year) described in the GARB statewide inventory technical support d_ocument (GARB, 2016). The annual VMT is calculated using Equation 4. Equation 4 An nual VMT ca lculation Where, Annual VMT VMTMptype Annual VMT = I (VMT1,.;p type* Allocation Facto1i,·ip type)* 347 trip type = annual VMT of a jurisdiction (miles/year) = VMT for a given trip type (miles/weekday) Allocation Factorrrip typa 347 = allocation factor using O-D Method of a given trip type(%) = conversion factor, weekday to annual With, trip type = [Internal-Internal, Internal-External/External-Internal, External-External] For example, using the VMT by trip type given in Table 10, the 2012 annual VMT for a sample jurisdiction are 614,005,743 miles, as calculated in Equation 5. Equation 5 E xample of a j u risdiction's a nnua l VMT ca lcu lation A;mual VMT = L (VMT1,.;p tYP• * Allocation Factor1,.;µ typ.e) * 347 tl'ip type ( miles miles miles ) = 241,151 kd * 100% + 3,056,636 Id * 50% + 594,264 kd * 0% * 347 wee ay wee , ay wee ay miles = 614,005,743-·-year 3.5.2 Average vehicle emission rate The average vehicle CO2 emission rate is derived from the statewide EMFAC mobile source emissions model developed by GARB and converted to CO2e using a conversion rate derived from the EPA. EMFAC CO2 emission rate The current version of EMFAC is EMFAC2014, adopted by GARB in 2015. The EMFAC model has undergone methodology and data source updates since its previous versions, EMFAC2007 and EMFAC2011 . EMFAC2007 and EMFC2011 are the vehicle emission rate sources for most of the existing GHG inventories used by jurisdictions in the San Diego region. Table 12 represents the selections used to download emission rates output files from the EMFAC2014 web database. The smallest geographic area selection in the database is the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) or county level; therefore, EPIC uses the emission rate in the San Diego region for all jurisdictions in the region. (§AND.AG,,,, Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections , and Target Selection I 19 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 43 of 46 T able ·12 EMFAC201 4 web database (v·I .0.7) d efault mode selection for emission rate output Category Selection Data type Emission rates Region MPO: SANDAG County: San DieQo Calendar year Inventory year Season Annual Vehicle cateQory EMFAC2011 cateQories (All) Model year AaareQated or all model years Speed AaareQated Fuel All (Qas, diesel, electric) ReCAP: Technical Appendix I The EMFAC2014 emissions rate output file includes running, start, and idling exhaust emissions rates for the criteria pollutants and CO2. To calculate the average vehicle CO2 emission rate, it is necessary to use the. VMT distribution (also provided in the EMFAC output file) and the CO2 running exhaust emission rate (emissions from vehicle tailpipe while traveling on roads) for each type of vehicle category with each fuel type. GARB released the next model version, EMFAC2017, in December 2017 and is expected to get approval from EPA in 2018. EMFAC2017 includes a GHG module that provides GHG emission estimates directly, including CO2, CH4 and N2O, assuming complete combustion of the fuel (all carbon content of the fuel is converted to CO2) and CH4 and N2O emission rates based on GARB vehicle testing data. No off-model CO2 to CO2e conversion (discussed in the following Section 3.5.2.2)will be needed once EMFAC2017 is a~proved and.used for estimating emissions from on-road transportation. EPIC is developing a Technical Working Paper, "Estimating a Greenhouse Gas Emission Rate for Miles Driven: A Method for Climate Action Planning," which will include comparisons of the model versions and . more details on estimating the average vehicle emission rate for GHG inventories and projections. EPA CO2 to C02e conversion factor ·On-road .transportation also produces CH4 and N2O emissions. EMFAC2014 does not provide CH4 and N2O exhaust emissions. Therefore, the CO2 emission rate is converted to a CO2e emission rate that includes both CH4 and N2O emissions. The conversion factor is based on the EPA GHG Emissions lnveritory. The latest EPA GHG Inventory provides CH4 and N2O emissions for fossil fuel combustion in on-road vehicles and off-road equipment. Only the on-road CH4 and N2O emissions are used, and all fuel types (gasoline, diesel, and alternative fuels) are included. The CH4 and N2O emissions are converted to CO2e using the associated GWPs given in Table 4. Sources and methods are updated in each iteration of the U.S. _GHG Emission Inventory. The CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions of the same year vary slightly in each updated version. EPIC uses an average of the CO2e to CO2 emissions ratio from the most recent three years as the conversion factor. This conversion factor is currently 1.01. · Table ·13 CO2, CH4, and thO .emissio ns from on-road mobile c ombust ion in U .. S. (201 2-2 0 14) CO2 emissions CH4 N20 Cal~ndar year emissions . emissions (MMT G02e) (MMTC02e) (MMT C02e) 2012 1,613 1.6 14.5 2013 1,628 1.6 14.5 2014 1,656 1.4 12.6 MMT -million metric tons Source: EPA 2016 Total C02e to emissions (MMT C02e} CO2 ratio 1,629 1.01 1,645 1.01 1,671 1.01 Average 1.01 (SANDAGi!fr Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Selection I 20 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 44 of 46 ReCAP: Technical Appendix I Average vehicle C02e emission rate for the San Diego region The average vehicle GHG emissions rate, or the combination of the conversion factor and the average vehicle CO2 emission rate, can be calculated in terms of COze according to Equation 6. · E i.Iat ion 6 Average vehicle CO2e emission rate calculation (San Diego region) C02e ERave = I (VMT Distrcategory,fuel * CO2 RUNEXcate9o,·y,fue,) * 1.01 class.fuel Where, CO2 eERavc VMT Distl'catego,·y Juel CO2 RUNEXcatego,·y fuel 1.01 With, Class = average vehicle CO2 emission rate of all vehicle classes and fuel types in the region (grams COze per mile) =VMT of a given vehicle class with a given fuel out of total VMT in the San Diego region (%) = CO2 running exhaust emissions of a given vehicle with a given fuel (grams CO2 per mile) · = Conversion factor from CO2 to COze = [EMFAC2011 Categories, EMFAC2014 Technical Documentation Table 6.1] Fuel = [Gas, Diesel, Electric] Using Equation 6 above, the San Diego region's average vehicle emission rates from 2012 to 2015 are given in Table 14. · Table 14 Average vehicle emission rate (201 2-20·15) for the San Diego reg ion Year Average vehicle emjssion factor (gram C02e/mile)- 2012 483 2013 476 2014 468 2015 457 Source: GARB, EPIC 2016 3.5.3 Emissions calculation for on-road transportation category Total emissions from the on-road transportation category are estimated by multiplying the average vehicle emission rate in the San Diego region with the jurisdiction's annual VMT iri a given year, as shown in Equation 7. Equation 7 Emission calculatio n for on-road l ransporlation categ ory Where, GJJG Emissions1rn11s1, annual VMT C02e ER~vc 10-6 GHG E1hissio11s1rnusp = annual VMT "' C02 e ERave * 10-6 = emissions from on-road transportation category in a given year {MT COze) = annual VllilT of a jurisdiction (miles/year) = average vehicle CO2e emission rate of all vehicle classes and fuel types in the region (grams CO2e per mile) = conversion factor, MT per gram CO2e Using the example of the annual VMT from Equation 5, the annual on-road transportation emissions are 260,127 MT CO2e as calculated in Equation 8. (§AIVDAGdp' Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Seleclion I 21 Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 45 of 46 Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle Miles Traveled Calculations Paz Gomez, Deputy City Manager, Public Works Gary Barberio, Deputy City Manager, Community Services Jan. 21, 20201 Overview •Carlsbad –early leader in preparing its Climate Action Plan •Vehicle Miles Traveled calculation error •Short term and long term actions to correct calculation and ensure CAP is in compliance Jan. 21, 20202 Background Climate Action Plan (CAP) adopted 2015 •Outlines how city will reduce its share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions •Provides mitigation for General Plan update •Intended to serve as a Qualified Plan under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) 3 Jan. 21, 2020 Baseline measurements CAP’s inventory of the city’s GHG emissions based on: 1.Baseline inventory of emissions from 2005 2.Updated baseline for 2011 3.Calculation of city’s targets based on reduction in emissions from 2005 baseline 4 Jan. 21, 2020 CAP’s targets •By 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 15% below the 2005 baseline •By 2035, reduce GHG emissions to 49% below the 2005 baseline 5 Jan. 21, 2020 Monitoring and adjustments CAP includes monitoring of: •Annual progress in implementing CAP measures •Biannual inventory of GHG emissions •Periodic GHG emissions forecasts If forecasts indicate insufficient progress toward meeting GHG targets, the city may consider new or revised measures 6 Jan. 21, 2020 New emissions inventories •New GHG emissions data from 2016 now available •City’s ongoing monitoring revealed calculation error in original vehicle miles traveled (VMT) baseline o Led to lower GHG inventory and lower reduction targets 7 Jan. 21, 2020 Impact on CAP Incorrect VMT calculation means: •CAP may no longer constitute as a Qualified Plan •Staff will stop assessing projects’ GHG impacts using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until VMT error is addressed 8 Jan. 21, 2020 Next steps •CAP Progress Report to City Council in April •Staff developing other data to assess GHG impacts of projects until CAP is updated •Focused update to CAP •Comprehensive update to CAP along with city’s Housing Element update 9 Jan. 21, 2020 Thank you 10 Jan. 21, 2020