HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020-01-21; City Council; ; Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle Miles Traveled calculationsMeeting Date:
To:
From:
Staff Contact:
Subject:
Jan. 21,2020
Mayor and City Council
Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Paz Gomez, Deputy City Manager, Public Works
paz.gomez@carlsbadca.gov, 760-602-2751
Gary Barberio, Deputy City Manager, Community Services
gary.barberio@carlsbadca.gov, 760-434-2822
CA Review ft'lG,
Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle Miles Traveled calculations
Recommended Action
Receive an informational presentation on the Climate Action Plan (CAP) update and vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) calculations.
Executive Summary
The City of Carlsbad's CAP was adopted by the City Council in September 2015. As part of the
monitoring required by the plan, staff determined that the plan's calculation of VMT was based
on an incorrect input, which resulted in a lower greenhouse gas (GHG} inventory and GHG
targets. Staff currently estimates that the city will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target
through existing CAP measures. However, it appears that the amended 2035 GHG target will
require the addition of a substantial GHG reduction measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as
community choice energy (CCE}.
Due to the error in the VMT calculation, the city's CAP likely does not currently constitute a
qualified GHG reduction plan (Qualified Plan) under California Environmental Quality Act
(CEQA} Guidelines. Therefore, staff will not assess the GHG impacts of CEQA projects by using
the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the error is addressed. Staff is working with consultants to
undertake a focused CAP update to correct the data on VMT, incorporate the Regional Climate
Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) Snapshot 2016 inventory data and add new GHG reduction
measures, such as CCE, to meet the revised GHG reduction targets.
Discussion
In September 2015, the city adopted a CAP that outlines actions the city will undertake to
achieve its proportionate share of state GHG emissions reductions. Implementation of the CAP
serves as mitigation under CEQA for the city's General Plan update and as a Qualified Plan in
accordance with CEQA Guidelines. Later development projects may use consistency with a
Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA GHG analyses.
The CAP contains a baseline inventory of GHG emissions for 2005, an updated baseline
inventory for 2011, and a calculation of the city's targets based on a reduction from the 2005
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 1 of 46
baseline. Consistent with state law ·and policy, the CAP set a target to achieve a 15% reduction
of GHG emissions from the 2005 baseline by 2020 and a target to reduce GHG emissions below
the 2005 baseline by 49% by 2035. The CAP relies on ongoing monitoring of GHG reduction
measures and updates to the GHG inventory. If an updated GHG inventory reveals that the CAP
is not making adequate progress toward meeting the GHG targets, the city must adjust the CAP
by modifying, adding or replacing reduction measures.
The San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG) collaborates with local agency staff and
climate planning experts to prepare a ReCAP that provides jurisdiction-specific GHG emissions
data and a technical framework for regionally consistent climate action planning. On Nov. 22,
2019, SAN DAG provided the City of Carlsbad with a ReCAP Snapshot that contains a 2016 GHG
Inventory for assessing the city's CAP implementation efforts and for updating the city's CAP
GHG inventory.
The CAP anticipated that its GHG inventory and targets would be revisited and possibly
amended to account for more current data, such as the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory. During
ongoing CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP contains a calculation error that
resulted in a lower GHG inventory and the CAP's GHG targets. Therefore, as part of staff's
routine efforts to update the CAP with the 2016 inventory, staff will also address the apparent
VMT calculation error.
The CAP was developed to be a Qualified Plan under CEQA Guidelines. CEQA does riot require
public agencies to develop a Qualified Plan; however, later development projects may use
consistency with a Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA GHG analyses. Due to the VMT error,
the CAP likely fails to constitute as a Qualified Plan. The VMT error resulted in a lower CAP GHG
inventory that affected the GHG reduction targets, which contradicts the requirements under
CEQA Guidelines. As such, staff will not assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts using the CAP as a
Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed.
Fiscal Analysis
This is an informational item explaining the CAP update and VMT calculations; therefore, there
is no fiscal impact related to this item.
Next Steps
Staff is currently incorporating the ReCAP Snapshot data and the fiscal year 2018-19 CAP
Annual Report into a CAP Progress Report presentation to City Council with an anticipated
presentation date in April 2020.
To address the VMT error, in the short term, staff will develop supplementary data to assess
CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to meet CEQA Qualified Plan
requirements. Additionally, the city will undertake a focused CAP update to correct the VMT
data, incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory data and add new GHG reduction
measures, such as CCE, to meet the revised GHG reduction targets. Timelines for completion of
these tasks will be provided at the April 2020 presentation.
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 2 of 46
In the longer term, by April 2021, staff will perform a comprehensive update to the CAP along
with the city's Housing Element update. The Housing Element update will revise the city's
residential density, which may increase the city's forecasted GHG emissions. This CAP update
will determine whether the city remains on the trajectory to meet its GHG targets considering
those land use changes.
Environmental Evaluation (CEQA)
Pursuant to Public Resources Code Section 21065, receiving an informational presentation on
the CAP update and VMT calculations does not qualify as a "project" within the meaning of the
CEQA. The informational presentation has no potential to cause either a direct physical change
in the environment, or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment,
and therefore does not require environmental review.
Public Notification and Outreach
This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for public
viewing and review at least 72 hours prior to the scheduled meeting date.
Exhibit
1. Climate Action Plan Annual Reporting/Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Calculations Memo
dated Jan. 13,2020
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 3 of 46
Memorandum
January 13, 2020
To:
From:
CITY MANAGER
CITY ATTORNEY ~
EXHIBIT 1
{city of
Carlsbad
Subject: CL/MA TE ACTION PLAN ANNUAL REPORTING/ VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT)
CALCULATIONS
Executive Summary
In April 2020, staff plan to present a CAP Progress Report to City Council that incorporates the
City's Climate Action Plan (CAP) fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 Annual Report and ReCAP Snapshot
data from the San Diego Association of Governments (SAN DAG). That presentation will describe
that the ReCAP Snapshot reflects an apparent error in the current CAP's vehicle miles traveled
(VMT) calculation.
During CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP's VMT calculation is based on an
incorrect input, which resulted in a materially understated greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and
GHG targets. Staff currently estimate that the City will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target
through existing CAP measures. However, it appears that the amended 2035 GHG target will
require the addition of a substantial GHG reduction measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as
Community Choice Energy. Staff will provide a further update on these impacts as part of the
CAP Progress Report presentation.
Due to the VMT error, the CAP likely does not currently constitute a qualified greenhouse
reduction plan (Qualified Plan) under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines
Section 15183.S(b). Therefore, staff will not assess the GHG impacts of CEQA projects by using
the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed.
To address the VMT error, staff plan to do the following: (1) in the short term, develop
supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address
section 15183.S(b) requirements; and (2) undertake a focused CAP update to address section
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 4 of 46
Page 2
15183.5(b) requirements with the correct VMT figure1. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff
will also update the CAP with the City's Housing Element update.2
I. Background
In September 2015, the City adopted a CAP that outlines actions that the City will undertake to
achieve its proportionate share of state GHG emissions reductions. Implementation of the CAP
serves as mitigation under CEQA for the City's General Plan update and as a Qualified Plan in
accordance with CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b).3 Compliance with section 15183.5(b)
allows later development projects to use the CAP for their CEQA GHG analyses; projects above
the CAP's screening threshold of 900 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) per year
demonstrate consistency with the CAP under CEQA through a Consistency Checklist and/or a
self-developed GHG emissions reduction program.
The CAP contains a baseline inventory of GHG emissions for 2005, an updated baseline
inventory for 2011, and a calculation of the City's targets based on a reduction from the 2005
baseline. According to the CAP, the City emitted 630,310 MTCO2e in 2005, 705,744 MTCO2e in
2011 and is projected to emit 1,007,473 MTCO2e in 2035. See CAP Section 2. Consistent with
state law and policy, the CAP set a target to achieve a 15 percent reduction from the 2005
baseline by 2020 and a target to reduce emissions below the 2005 baseline by 49 percent by
2035. See CAP Section 3.1.
To meet these targets, the CAP states the City must implement strategies that reduce emissions
to 535,763 MTCO2e in 2020 and 321,458 MTCO2e in 2035. Id. The CAP relies upon ongoing
monitoring of GHG reduction measures and updates to the GHG inventory. See CAP Section 5.2.
If an updated GHG inventory reveals that the CAP in not making adequate progress toward
meeting the GHG targets, the City must adjust the CAP by modifying, adding, or replacing
reduction measures.4
II. Regional Climate Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) and FY 2018-19 CAP Annual
Report
SAN DAG collaborates with local agency staff and climate planning experts to prepare a Regional
Climate Action Planning Framework (ReCAP) that provides jurisdiction-specific GHG emissions
data and a technical framework for regionally-consistent climate action planning. On November
1 This update will revisit the CAP inventory and targets due to the VMT error, incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot
2016 inventory data, and add new or revised GHG reduction measures as necessary to meet the amended targets.
2 The Housing Element update will revise the City's residential density, which may increase the City's forecasted
GHG emissions. This CAP update will determine whether the City remains on the trajectory to meet its GHG targets
considering those land use changes.
3 General Plan Sustainability Element, Policy 9-P.1 ("enforce the Climate Action Plan as the city's strategy to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions") serves as CEQA mitigation for the General Plan update (see Table ES-3, impact 3.9-2, in
the General Plan update EIR).
4 The CAP requires GHG inventory updates every three years. Seep. 5-15 of CAP.
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 5 of 46
Page 3
22, 2019, SAN DAG provided the City of Carlsbad with a ReCAP Snapshot that contains a 2016
GHG Inventory for assessing the City's CAP implementation efforts and for updating the City's
CAP GHG inventory. Staff is currently incorporating the ReCAP Snapshot data and the FY 2018"
19 CAP Annual Report into a CAP Progress Report presentation to City Council, with an
anticipated presentation date in April 2020.
The CAP anticipated that its GHG inventory and targets would be revisited and possibly
amended to account for more current data, such as the ReCAP Snapshot 2016 inventory.
However, that process assumed that the original CAP calculations did not contain material
errors. As further described below, staff determined that the CAP contains a calculation error
that resulted in materially lower figures for the CAP's GHG inventory and the CAP's GHG
targets.5 Therefore, as part of staff's routine efforts to update the CAP with the 2016 inventory,
staff will also address the apparent VMT calculation error.
Ill. CAP VMT Calculations
The City's CAP consultant intended to use the ICLEI Origin-Destination Method to calculate
VMT.6 It is a regional travel demand model that captures trips that start (origin) or end
(destination) within the boundary of the jurisdiction. This approach, which is endorsed by
SAN DAG and is used for the ReCAP, excludes consideration of pass-through trips and is believed
to best capture where a local government can affect passenger vehicle emissions. The Origin-
Destination Method calculates VMT by taking 100% of the VMT for internal-internal trips, 50%
of the VMT associated with internal-external/external-internal trips, and 0% of the VMT
associated with external-external trips (see Attachment 2).
During ongoing CAP monitoring, staff determined that the CAP used an incorrect figure for its
internal-external/external-internal trips input in the Origin-Destination Method calculation.7
SAN DAG provides local jurisdictions with spreadsheets that contain the VMT calculation inputs;
from that spreadsheet, the City's CAP consultant se lected an input for the internal-
external/external-internal trips that was specific to Carlsbad when they should have selected
the regionwide total input. The error resulted in 510,973,969 VMT compared to the correct
1,076,144,961 VMT.8
5 VMT is the largest contributor of community GHG emissions to the City's GHG inventory (39%). Seep. 2-6 of CAP.
6 Seep. 2-3 of CAP: "For transportation trips that originate or end in Carlsbad, emissions for half of the entire trip
are included, and not just for the miles traveled within Carlsbad; however, trips that just pass through Carlsbad are
excluded, as their emissions would be reflected at their trip ends." See also p. 5 of Aug. 23; 2013 D&B
memorandum accompanying CAP: "The 2011 Inventory uses VMT excluding pass-through trips to capture
transportation emissions from trips originating or ending within the City of Carlsbad ... pass-through trips were
excluded from this inventory."
7 This type of error occurred with other climate action plans developed in 2015 or earlier. The City of San Diego and
City of La Mesa discovered and corrected this type of error prior to finalizing their climate action plans.
8 These figures reflect year 2012 data.
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 6 of 46
Page 4
Staff is now updating the CAP to address the VMT error and to incorporate the ReCAP Snapshot
2016 inventory data. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff will update the CAP as necessary
in relation to the City's Housing Element update. Staff is also developing supplementary data to
assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address CEQA Guidelines
Section 15183.5(b) requirements (See Section VI below). Staff currently estimate that the City
will achieve the updated 2020 GHG target through existing CAP measures. However, it appears
that the amended 2035 GHG target will require the addition of substantial GHG reduction
measure (or measures) to the CAP, such as Community Choice Energy. Staff will provide a
further update on these impacts as part cif the CAP Progress Report presentation to City
Council.
IV. CAP as Qualified Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan
The CAP was developed to be a Qualified Plan under CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5{b). CEQA
does not require public agencies to develop a Qualified Plan, however later development
projects may use consistency with a Qualified Plan to streamline their CEQA,GHG analyses. The
use of a Qualified Plan is one of a few pathways that may be used to assess a CEQA project's
GHG impacts. See Center for Biological Diversity v. California Department of Fish and Wildlife
and Newhall Land and Farming (2015) 224 Cal. App. 4th 1105 (Newhall Ranch case).
A lead agency may determine that a project's incremental contribution to ·a cumulative effect is
not cumulatively considerable (i.e., that the project's GHG impact is less than significant) if the
project complies with a Qualified Plan. Section 15183.S(b) requires that a Qualified Plan do the
following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
quantify greenhouse gas emissions, both existing and projected over a specified
time period, resulting from activities within a defined geographic area;
establish a level, based on substantial evidence, below which the contribution to
greenhouse gas emissions from activities covered by the plan would not be
cumulatively considerable;
identify and analyze the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from specific actions or
categories of actions anticipated within the geographic area;
specify measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that
substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis,
~ould collectively achieve the specified emissions level; and
establish a mechanism to monitor the plan's progress toward achieving the level and
to require amendment if the plan is not achieving specified levels; and be adopted in
a public process following environmental review.
Due to the VMT error, the CAP likely fails to constitute a Qualified Plan. The VMT error resulted
in a materially understated CAP GHG inventory that affected the GHG reduction targets, which
contradicts the requirements under CEQA Guidelines Sections 15183.S(b)(l)(A)-(B). A Qualified
Plan must also develop measures or a group of measures that would meet the specified
emissions level if implemented on a project-by-project basis. CEQA Guidelines §
15183.S(b){l)(D). The VMT error requires the addition of new GHG reduction measure(s) to the
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 7 of 46
· Page 5
CAP to meet the corrected reduction targets, and it is currently unknown which measure(s) will
be added to the CAP and how the CAP Checklist for development projects will be updated to
reflect these changes. Considering these issues, staff will not assess CEQA projects' GHG
impacts using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until the VMT error is addressed.
V. Next Steps
To address the VMT error, staff will do the following: (1) in the short term, develop
supplementary data to assess CEQA projects' GHG impacts until the CAP is updated to address
section 15183.S{b) requirements; and {2) undertake a focused CAP update to address section
15183.S{b) requirements with the correct VMT figure, which will also incorporate the ReCAP
Snapshot 2016 inventory data. In the longer-term (by April 2021), staff will also update the CAP
with the City's Housing Element update.
While the CAP is updated to fully meet Qualified Plan requirements, development projects
could use the supplementary data described in (1) to tier from the E.IR for the General Plan
update and CAP. See CEQA Guidelines§ 15183.S(a).9 In addition to tiering, the Newhall Ranch
case provides some possible options for a sufficient GHG impact a~alysis in the absence of a
Qualified Plan. The City Attorney's Office will continue to assist City staff in reviewing this
matter and applying GHG analysis methods to development projects until the CAP is updated to
address CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.S{b) requirements.
AM~¾
Deputy City Attorney
Attachments
1. FY 2018-19 CAP Annual Report
2. SANDAG ReCap Excerpts
9 CEQA Guidelines § 15385. "Tiering" refers to the "coverage of general matters in broader EIRs ... with subsequent
narrower El Rs or ultimately site-specific EIRs incorporating by reference the general discussions and concentrating
solely on the issues specific to the EIR subsequently prepared."
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 8 of 46
City of Carlsbad Climate Action Plan
Annual Report
Reporting Year 3: July 1, 2018 -June 30, 2019
August 2019
City of Carlsbad
Environmental Management
1635 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Contact: Mike Grim, CAP Administrator
mike.grim@carlsbadca.gov; 760-602-4623
{city of
Carlsbad
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 9 of 46
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Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 10 of 46
Table of Contents
Page
I. lntroduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
II. Background on Climate Action Plan .................................................................................................... 1
111., CAP Measures and Actions ................................................................................................................... 5
A. Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................................................... 5
B. Renewable Energy ..... , ....................................................................................................................... 5
C. Transportation .................................................................................................................................. 6
D. Water ................................................................................................................................................ 7
E. Public Outreach and Education .................... · ..................................................................................... 7
IV. New Development Projects .................................................................................................................. 8
V. Monitoring ............................................................................................................................................. 8
A. Renewable Energy ............................................................................................................................. 8
B. Electric Vehicles ............................................................ : ................................................................. 10
C. Transportation General Plan Policies .............................................................................................. 12
VI. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast.. ........................................................................................... 14
VII. Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 15
Appendix A -FY 18-19 CAP Implementation Activities
Tables and Figures
Figure 1-2011 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ................................................................................. 2
Table 1-2011 Community GHG Emissions by Sector .................................................................................. 2
Table 2 -CAP Measures and GHG.Reductions ............................................................................................ , 4
Table 3 -PV System Installations in Reporting Year 3 (FY 18-19) ........................................................................ 9
Figure 2 -Residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Target ................................................. : ..... 9
Figure 3 -Non-residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Target.. ........................................... 10
Figure 4 -CVRP Participation in Carlsbad 2011-2018 ......................................................................................... 11
Table 4 -Electric Vehicle Charging Station Installations in Reporting Year 3 (FY 18-19) ............................... 11
Figure 5 -Bikeways by Classification .......................................................................................................... 13
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 11 of 46
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Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 12 of 46
I. Introduction
The purpose of this document is to provide an update on the status of the Climate_ Action Plan
(CAP) implementation that occurred during the current reporting period. The CAP requires that
the city annually monitor and report on CAP implementation activities, and present this report
to the City Council in a public meeting. Give.n that CAP implementation is tied to the budget
cycle, staff chose the fiscal year calendar to be the reporting period. Th is Year 3 annual report
covers the FY 18-19 reporting period (July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019).
II. Background on Climate Action Plan
The City of Carlsbad's Climate Action Plan (CAP) was adopted on Sept. 22, 2015, along with the
General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report. The purpose of the CAP is to
describe how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within Carlsbad will be reduced in accordance
with statewide targets.
Chapter 2 of the CAP contains information about the 2011 GHG inventory conducted at the
time _of CAP development. A GHG inventory identifies the major sources and overall magnitude
of GHG emissions in the city using standard modeling methods and protocols. Typical inputs
include electricity consumed, natural gas consumed, vehicles miles traveled, solid waste
disposed, wastewater treated and potable and recycled water used.
Chapter 3 of the CAP contains a discussion of the forecasting used to determine the city's GHG
targets for 2020 and 2035, as well as the GHG reductions anticipated by state and federal
policies and certain General Plan policies.
Chapter 4 of the CAP describes the additional Measures and Actions that the city must pursue
to reach its GHG emissions reduction targets.
To implement these additional Measures and Actions, the city needed to identify and allocate
appropriate funding. Therefore, subsequent to CAP adoption, staff contracted with University
of San Diego's Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) to study incremental internal costs to the
city for CAP implementation. All of the participating city departments and divisions were
surveyed to quantify the resources needed to effectively implement the CAP. On Feb. 23, 2016,
· staff presented the findings of the study to City Council and noted that these costs would be
included in subsequent departmental budget requests. CAP implementation is a team effort
involving a number of city departments and divisions, coordinated by the CAP Administrator.
The interdepartmental CAP implementation team consists of Public Works (PW) -General
Services, PW -Traffic and Mobility, PW-Environmental Management, PW -Utilities,
Community and Economic Development-Planning, Parks & Recreation, Finance, City Attorney
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 1 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 13 of 46
Of the total emissions in 2011, 96% are attributed to the residential, commercial, industrial and
transportation sectors {e.g. buildings and automobiles). This emissions profile by sector is
typical of other cities; therefore, similar to most other CAPs, Carlsbad's CAP focuses primarily
on GHG emissions reduction strategies on these sectors.
Forecasts for the Carlsbad CAP were conducted for 2020 and 2035 GHG emissions using the
Statewide Energy Efficiency Collaborative {SEEC) model. The CAP used the 2005 inventory as
the baseline. The first step in forecasting is to determine what is known as the "Business-As-
Usual" (BAU) projection. This projection is the amount of GHG emissions increase anticipated
over time due to population and job growth and vehicular traffic levels. The forecast then
deducts the anticipated emissions reductions derived from state and federal policies, such as
low carbon fuel standards, building energy code requirements and the state's requirement for
utilities to provide electricity from renewable energy sources (known as the Renewable
Portfolio Standard or RPS).
The Carlsbad CAP considered another category of anticipated GHG emissions reduction from
the BAU projections: additional General Plan·policies and actions. These policies and actions
dea l with the transportation sector and include bikeway and pedestrian system improvements,
traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements. After
deducting these anticipated GHG emissions reductions from the BAU projection, the model
then calculates the amount of additional GHG emissions reductions needed to reach the 2020
and 2035 targets.
The statewide targets used for the CAP are taken from Executive Order S-3-05 (EO S-3-05) and . .
the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, Assembly Bill {AB) 32. EO S-3-05 calls for a reduction
to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. For Carlsbad, the targets are 15%
below the 2005 baseline by 2020 and 49% below the 2005 baseline by 2035.
The additional GHG emissions reductions necessary to reach the targets are known as the CAP
Measures; these measures are noted in Table 2. Each Measure has Actions, which once
implemented by the city, will result in the modeled GHG emissions reductions also shown in
Table 2.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 3 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 15 of 46
Table 2 -CAP Measures and GHG Reductions
Measure
Letter GHG Reduction Measures
A Install residential photovoltaic (PV) systems
B Install.commercial and industrial PV systems
C Promote building cogeneration for large
commercial and industrial facilities
D Encourage single-fc!mily residential efficiency
retrofits
E Encourage multi-family residential efficiency
retrofits
F Encourage commercial and city facility
efficiency retrofits
Promote commercial and city facility
G commissioning, or improving building
operations
H Implementation of Green Building Code
I Replace Incandescent bulbs with LED bulbs
New construction residential and commercial
J solar water heater/heat pump installation and
retrofit of existing residential
I< Promote Transportation Demand Management
L Increase zero-emissions vehicle travel
M Develop more citywide renewable energy
projects
N Reduce the GHG intensity of water supply
conveyance, treatment and delivery
0 Encoura,ge the installation of greywater and
rainwater systems
Total GHG Reductions
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page4
GHG Reduction GHG Reduction
in 2020 in 2035
(MTCO2e) (MTCO2e)
2,896 10,136
3,810 13,336
305 1,067
323 1,132
100 351
5,251 18,377
5,251 18,377
51 179
6,257 21,900
3,315 11,604
6,728 23,549
15,474 54,158
1,309 4,580
1,705 5,968
344 1,205
53,199 185,'919
August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 16 of 46
Ill. CAP Measures and Actions
The CAP Measures listed in Table 2 can be grouped into four strategy areas: Energy Efficiency,
Renewable Energy, Transportation and Water. For each of the Measures, there are detailed
Actions that, taken together, sho.uld result in the anticipated GHG emissions reductions. Each of
the Actions has an implementation timeframe. Short-term Actions should be completed within
the first two years of CAP implementation; mid-term Actions should be completed within five
years; and, long-term Actions begin implementation in the first two to five years but will not be
completed within that timeframe.
The following section describes the progress made by the city in implementing the CAP
measures and actions, organized by the different strategy areas. A more detailed description of
activities conducted for each CAP Action, along with the 2035 performance goals for each
Measure, is contained in Appendix A of this report. The activities involving public outreach and
education are described in a separate section, since those efforts cross over all strategy areas.
A. Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency is an important component to reducing energy consumption and lowering
GHG emissions. The State of California's Energy Commission (CEC} has adopted a "loading
order," a prioritized list of actions needed to reduce energy use, and energy efficiency is at the
top of the list. For Carlsbad, energy efficiency CAP Measures account for almost a third of the
planned GHG emissions reductions.
Measures D, E, F, G, H and I all deal with energy efficiency, both in the community and
municipal operations. These Measures call for ordinances mandating energy efficiency
improvements in residential and non-residential construction, commissioning of commercial
and city facilities, implementation of energy conservation measures in city facilities, and
promotion of energy efficiency rebate and incentive programs.
During the reporting period, staff continued to make progress in implementing the energy
efficiency related Measures. On Marc_h 12, 2019, City Council adopted energy efficiency
ordinances for major renovations of existing residential and non-residential buildings. PW -
General Services upgraded seven heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) units at the
Faraday Center. LED lighting was installed at the Carlsbad City Library, Safety Training Center
and Oak Avenue paint shop area. West facing windows at the Safety Training Center were
tinted.
B. Renewable Energy
The provision of energy through distributed renewable sources can significantly reduce the
need for .electricity from the grid and, therefore, lower GHG emissions. The CEC's loading order
prioritization of energy efficiency is to lessen the amount of energy used, thereby minimizing
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 5 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 17 of 46
the size and cost of the renewable energy system needed to power the building. According to
the CAP, renewable energy Measures will account for about one-fifth of the planned GHG
emissions reductions.
Measures A, B, C, J and M relate to community and city renewable energy improvements.
These Measures include ordinances requiring PV systems in new residential and non-residential
construction and existing commercial buildings, cogeneration in larger non-residential
buildings, alternative energy water heating systems, citywide renewable energy projects, and
promotion of renewable energy rebate and incentive programs. Cogeneration involves the
generation of electricity and another form of energy, such as using steam to provide heating for
a building.
On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted ordinances requiring installation of solar photovoltaic
(PV panels) for all new non-residential development and major renovations of existing non-
residential buildings, as well as alternative energy water heating for all new residential and non-
residential development
C. Transportation
There are two primary facets of GHG emissions reductions related to transportation. The first is
to reduce the nu,mber of miles a vehicle is driven. Each mile driven represents an emission of
GHG. Reducing the length of trips, or the need to use a motorized vehicle, can significantly
reduce GHG emissions. The second facet of transportation-related GHG emissions is to reduce
or eliminate the GHG emissions coming from vehicles. Known as low-or zero-emissions
vehicles, these automobiles include alternative-fueled vehicles, hybrids and electric vehicles.
' ' Taken together, reduction of vehicle miles traveled and tailpipe emissions represents the
largest single GHG emissions reduction strategy area. In the Carlsbad CAP, transportation-
related Measures total over 40% of the planned GHG emissions reductions.
Measures Kand L address the transportation related GHG emissions reductions. Measure K
relates to reducing vehicle miles traveled and is closely tied to the policies contained in the
General Plan Mobility Element. On Feb. 26, 2019, the City Council approved a Transportation
Demand Management (TDM) plan and ordinance. Staff released a Request for Proposals in
March 2019 to solicit TDM consulting services.
Measure L involves reducing tailpipe emissions through an increase in the proportion of low-
and zero-emission vehicles on the road. On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted an ordinance
requiring installation of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure for all new residential and
non-residential development and major renovations of existing residential buildings. Other
activities during the reporting period included the purchase of ten plug-in hybrid city fleet
vehicles and installation of 20 fleet and employee EV charging stations, 10 at the Faraday
Center and 10 at the Carlsbad City Library.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 6 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 18 of 46
IV. New Development Projects
The CAP serves as an environmental review tiering document pursuant to Section 15183.5 of
the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines: According to the CAP, any
discretionary project that will have GHG emissions greater than 900 MTC02e must either
demonstrate consistency with the CAP or submit a project-specific GHG analysis for review and
approval.
During the reporting period, the Planning Division continued to implement the Climate Action
Plan Consistency Checklist and accompanying Guidance for Demonstrating Consistency with the
Climate Action Plan -For Discretionary Projects Subject to CEQA. The Checklist and Guidelines
are available at: http://www.carl sbadca.gov/services/building/forms/default.asp.
The CAP states that new projects demonstrated to emit less than 900 MTC02e would not
contribute considerably to cumulative climate change impacts, and therefore do not need to
demonstrate consistency with the CAP. No development projects approved during the
reporting period met or exceeded the 900 MTC02e threshold.
V. Monitoring
Monitoring of CAP implementation can be divided into three general areas: 1) progress on
implementing the CAP Actions; 2) progress on reaching the CAP Measures' performance goals;
and, 3) progress in reaching the CAP GHG emissions reductions targets for 2020 and 2035.
A detailed description of the activities undertaken to implement the CAP Actions is contained in
Appendix A. Regarding the CAP Measures and their corresponding performance goals, there is
variability in the monitoring data sources. For example, monitoring for Measures D, E, F and G
require San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) electric and natural gas energy usage. Monitoring
for Measure L requires vehicle miles traveled (VMT) model output data. The energy usage and
VMT data will be collected during the biannual GHG inventory process, conducted by SAN DAG,
and reported in the corresponding CAP Annual Report.
A. Renewable Energy
Measures A and B involve increasing the amo~nt of residential and non-residential solar PV
systems in Carlsbad. Data for the reporting period were obtained from the permit activity in the
city's EnerGov system. Table 3 shows the number and capacity in kilowatts (kW) of PV system
installations in the residential and non-residential sectors during the reporting period.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 8 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 20 of 46
Location EV Service Provider Access NumiJer/Type of Ports
Laurel Tree Apartments Charge Point Unrestricted 6 L2
Thermo Fisher ChargePoint Restricted 20 L2
2051 Palomar ChargePoint Restricted 20 L2
City of Carlsbad Faraday Center Green lots Restricted 10 L2
Carlsbad City Library Green lots Restricted 10 L2
L2 = Level 2 chargers; DFCF = DC fast chargers
With the exception of the ThermoFisher and City of Carlsbad charging stations, all other
workplace/fleet installations were constructed through SDG&E's Power Your Drive program.
The installations at the two city facility sites were constructed through the Electrify America
program.
C. Transportation General Plan Policies
In addition to the CAP Measures and Actions described in Section Ill, the CAP also relies upon
implementation of some transportation related General Plan policies for GHG reductions. These
policies involve bikeway system improvements, pedestrian improvements and increased
connectivity, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements.
While the overall GHG reduction of these General Plan policies is relatively small {less than 4.5%
of 2035 reductions) it is important to track progress in completing these improvements because
they contribute increased and multimodal mobility within the city.
Bikeway and Pedestrian System Improvements
There were several improvements to the bikeway and pedestrian system during the reporting
period. In addition to the installation of a rectangular rapid flashing beacon for pedestrian
crossing at the intersection of Alicante Road and Lap is Road, major projects included: ·
2018-19 Slurry Seal -Added a four-foot buffer to existing bike lanes on both sides along
Poinsettia Lane,.from El Camino Real to Melrose Drive.
2018 Concrete Replacement:
• Replaced 14 non-compliant and damaged curb ramps
• Replaced over 5,000 linear feet of broken or uplifted sidewalk (approximately 25,000
square feet)
• Relocated light pole, removed tree and installed missing piece of sidewalk on La Costa
Avenue to complete pedestrian path.
The city currently has 188.05 miles of bikeways, as shown in Figure 5. A total of 6.02 miles of
bikeways were added to the system during the reporting period.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 12 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 24 of 46
Parking Facilities and Policies
On Sept. 26, 2017, the City Council accepted a Parking Management Plan (PMP) for the
Carlsbad Village, Barrio and Beach Area, which contains many of the parking policies described
in the CAP. Implementation of the plan will occur through the Carlsbad Village and Barrio
Master Plan (adopted by City Council on July 24, 2018). The recommendations in the PMP
include hiring a parking program management program manager, incentivizing shared and
leased parking, reducing parking requirements, allowing bicycle parking as a replacement for
required parking, and installing digital parking locator infrastructure and wayfinding signs.
Transportation Improvements
During the reporting period, staff continued coordination with North County Transit District
(NCTD) in the finalization of the city's Trolley Feasibility Study and the development of the
Carlsbad Connector, a first mile/last mile service connecting the Poinsettia Commuter Rail
Station to the employment centers in the city's industrial parks.
VI. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast
As stated in the CAP Annual Report 2, dated August 2018, the city is participating in SANDAG's
Climate Planning Services GHG inventory program and will receive a no-cost GHG inventory
every two to three years. As of June 30, 2019, the 2016 inventory was not received and,
therefore, it is not included in this annual report for Reporting Year 3 (July 1, 2018 -June 30,
2019).
The SAN DAG-prepared 2016 inventory will differ from the GHG inventory contained in the CAP
in several ways. It will include emissions from energy used for water conveyance and
treatment. It will also include the electricity-related emissions from the Claude "Bud" Lewis
Desalination Plant, which was not operational in 2011 when the CAP emissions where
calculated. Lastly, the methodology for deriving transportation-related emissions, or VMT, used
in the 2016 inventory is different from that used in the CAP.
In addition to the changes in GHG inventory components and derivation, the CARB issued new
guidance on GHG emissions target setting and forecasting through their 2017 Climate Change
Scoping Plan . Issued in November 2017, the Scoping Plan aligns the forecasting and target
setting protocols in accordance with California's 2030 GHG emissions targets. The city
contracted with EPIC to use the 2016 GHG inventory to forecast GHG emissions, derive targets,
and evaluate the city's progress in reaching its targets. EPJC will use the Scoping Plan guidance
to derive the updated targets and forecasts. Once the 2016 inventory is received, and the
targets and forecast are established, staff will present the findings to the City Council and make
recommendations on updating CAP Measures and Actions if needed.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 14 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 26 of 46
VII. Summary
During the third year of CAP implementation, staff continued to make progress in carrying out
the CAP Measures and Actions. During the next fiscal and reporting year, staff will continue to
work and coordinate with consultants, SANDAG, SDG&E and other regional and business
partners to further CAP implementation and continue to lower GHG emissions.
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page 15 August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 27 of 46
Appendix A
FY 18-19 CAP Implementation Activities
by Measures and Actions
Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Year 3, FY 18-19 Page i August 2019
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 28 of 46
At the time of CAP adoption, the City of Carlsbad was requiring compliance with 2013 version of
Adopt residential and commercial energy conservation CalGreen. On June 27, 2017, the city adopted the 2016 version of CalGreen, which significantly
H-1 ordinances requiring a 5% improvement in energy efficiency for increases energy efficiency of newly constructed buildings, far peyond the 5% called for in Action
residential and nonresidential new construction, above the H-1. For example, single family homes constructed under the 2016 standards will use about 28%
existing City or Carlsbad green building code. (Short-term) less energy for lighting, heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating than those built to the
2013 standards
. ..
I -Promote replacement ofincand.escent and halogen bulbs with ~E.P or other energy efficient lamps ,.
Repl~ce 50% of ipcandesteot and halogen light bulbs citywide withUD or siniilarly efficient lighting by 2035 ..
, .... ~-;•;:. ·~· !~· ' . ... ~ .) . •· "
Replace 50% of incandescent or halogen light bulbs In city
facilities with LED or similarly efficient lighting, or follow Staff installed replacement LED lighting at the Carlsbad City Library, Safety Training Center and the 1-1 SAN DAG Energy Roadmap recommendations for lighting in city
facilities, whichever results·in greater energy savings. (Short-Oak Avenue paint shop area area.
term)
Promote the use of LED or other energy efficient lamps by
1-2 publicizing rebate programs and information from SDG&E on Staff maintained a website, made comm.unity presentations, and published articles in newsletters
the benefits of the use of LED or other energy efficient·lighting and newspapers.
on the city's webpage. (Short-term)
In 2018, the CSE performed a qualitative feasibility evaluation for natural lighting and ventilation.
CSE determined that it would be difficult to provide a cost-effective natural ventilation
requirement that goes beyond the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The primary reason
is that, while natural 11entilation could meet some of a nonresidential building's cooling load due
Evaluate the feasibility of adopting a minimum natural lighting to Carlsbad's moderate climate, the 2019 California state building code nevertheless requires that
1-3.i and ventilation standard, developed based on local conditions. a building's mechanical ventilation system be sized to meet the full cooling load to ensure that
(Mid-term) safe indoor air quality is maintained. As such, the cost of providing natural ventilation would not
be offset by a reduced mechanical ventilation system.
With regards to natural lighting, CSE noted that nonresidential natural lighting is well-governed in
state codes, reducing the need for additional local standards. Cost-effectiveness analysis typically
a-v
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 33 of 46
1-3.ii Demonstrate natural lighti'ng and ventilation features in future
facility upgrade or new construction. (Mid-term)
includes recommendations to alter building geometry to allow more daylight into the space.
Daylighting requirements that may impact the architectural design and layout are challenging to
enforce and are susceptible to heightened industry resistance. Daylight dimming plus off lighting
control is a simple, cost-effective measure provided in the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency
.Standards, as it does-not require architectural geometry or design changes.
Daylighting in residential spaces is less likely to be cost-effective than in nonresidential spaces
because the code assumes occupants are not typically present in residential spaces during the.day
to take advantage of daylighting; therefore, the cost of these controls may not be offset by the
savings.
There are no known reach codes that include natural lighting and/or natural ventilation
requirements that go beyond current code requirements.
The feasibility assessment also concluded that there are no known reach codes that include
natural lighting and/or natural.ventilation requirements that go beyond current code
requirements.
Staff is evaluating potential future city projects to demonstrate natural lighting and ventilation.
. · .. ; •, •• ... ,; • •\i, • O• , .:,••. , ·, , C "<i , ,·., ,, . :·••.-,,,• .' ', ) a,•·,,,;• ,,
J -New construction resi_dential and comriiercial solar water heater/heat pump installation"& r.etrofit of.existlngrei;°idential . • : ;:,, _ _._,
_ln_stall solarwater heaters qd1eat purnps ~',, all ne\<.( resi9-eQtial ~n,,d cornrnersial co_nstru.i:tion. R·etrofit up,tG> 3P.% of existing t)omes ~nd· comrne.'.clal.)J_~jldi_ng;:_to irn;:lu~~--sqlar
\r~ater.he,ate~~_ort,eatpumps. -.. ·:,,., .:: I ., ~.-_ .-.. , , . .,-' ·!i,, -t ;'_,.,n•
J-1
J-2
Promote the installation of residential solar water heaters and
heat pumps by publicizing incentive, rebate and financing
programs, such as PACE programs and the California Solar
Initiative for renovations of existing buildings by posting this
information on the city's website and by other means. /Short-
term)
Adopt residential and commercial energy conservation
ordinances requiring new residential and commercial buildings
to install solar water heaters or heat pumps, or use alternative
energy '(such as PV-generated electricity) for water heating
needs. (Short-term}
Staff maintained a website, made community presentations, and published articles in newsletters
and newspapers.
On March 12, 20~9, City Council adopted Ordinance Nos. CS-347 and CS-348, which require new
residential and nonresidential buildings to install solar thermal water heating or electric heat
pump water heaters for water heating needs. The ordinances were submitted to the California
Energy Commission for review on March 14, 2019. The ordinances will be enforceable once they
are approved by the Commission. As of June 30, 2019, the ordinances were scheduled for
approval at the Commission's Aug. 14, 2019, business meeting.
a-vi
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 34 of 46
Working with industry partners, construct a "PV to EV" pilot Staff continues to assess the feasibility of a direct "PV to EV" pilot project(s). During the reporting project to install a PV charging station at_a city facility (such as period, staff received estimates for a transportable PV to EV unit and worked with local trade L-1 Faraday Center) to charge city ZEVs. The purpose of the pilot organizations to develop a Request for Information (RFI). The RFI will seek information on all project would be to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating forms of PV to EV projects. more ZEV into the city's fleet. (Short-term)
Prepare a community-wide charging station siting plan, which Staff prepared a mapping and travel distance analysis of existing and future EV charging sites and
identified gaps in service areas. The locations of city-owned public properties and commercial
L-2 evaluates site visibility and exposure, EV driving ranges, high centers that do not currently have EV charging infrastructure were then evaluated as to their volume destinations, locations with high ownership or interest ability to fill those gaps. The results of that mapping analysis is contained in Section V of the in EVs, and cost of construction. (Short-term) annual report.
Construct ZEV charging stations based on the community-wide
charging station siting plan described in L-2 above. The ZEV On Dec. 18, 2018, City Council authorized city participation in the Electrify America program,
L-3 charging stations will be funded by grant funds when available, which provided 20 staff/fleet charging stations; 10 at the Faraday Center and 10 at Carlsbad City
and the city will post signage directing ZEVs to charging Library. The charging stations were activated in May and June of 2019.
stations. (Mid-term)
On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which-requires new residential
and nonresidential buildings to install EV charging infrastructure. New one and two-family homes,
Offer dedicated ZEV parking, and provide charging stations and townhouses with attached private garages must have a complete circuit installed and ready
L-4 adjacent to ZEV parking as identified in the community-wide for EV charging supply equipment (EVSE). Multifamily residential and nonresidential buildings
charging station siting plan. (Mid-term) must provide EVSE for up to 10% of its parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to
certain major renovations of existing residential sites and buildings. The ordinance became
effective on April 11, 2019.
On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new residential
and nonresidential buildings to install EV charging infrastructure. New one and two-family homes,
L-5 Adopt requirements for ZEV parking for new developments. and townhouses with attached private garages must have a complete circuit installed and ready
(Short-term) for EVSE. Multifamily residential and nonresidential buildings must provide EVSE for up to 10% of
its parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to certain major renovat'ions of existing ·
residential sites and buildings. The ordinance became effective on April 11, 2019.
Adopt a residential energy conservation ordinance, similar to On March 12, 2019, City Council adopted Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new one and two-
family homes, and townhouses with attached private garages to have a complete circuit installed
L-6 Palo Alto, requiring the installation of EV chargers or pre-wiring and ready for EVSE. Multifamily residential buildings must provide EVSE for up to lb% of its in new residential construction and major renovations. (Short-parking. The EV charging requirements also apply to major renovations of existing residential sites term) and buildings, as defined in the ordinance. The ordinance became effective on April 11, 2019.
a-viii
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 36 of 46
C. ,. ·,,
O -Encourage the lnstallati~n of greywafor and ~ainwater systems
Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater collections systems )Nith a_goal of 15%of homes by 2035. .,' >,. . ., ..
Host workshops on greywater and rainwater collection systems CMWD participated in a rain barrel rebate program with other north San Diego County water through the Carlsbad Municipal Water District, or partner with 0·1 existing workshop providers, for homeowners interested in districts to encourage and provide financial incentive for rainwater collections systems. Details on
installing systems suitable for their property. (Mid-term) the program can be found at: https://www.rainwatersolutions.com/products/northc~unty
Create a greywater design reference manual, or provide links This is a mid-term action, planned for Years 3 -5. There was no activity on this action during the 0-2 to an existing one, for the de.sign of greywater and rainwater
collection systems. (Mid-term) reporting period.
Evaluate the feasibility of offering a rebate for residential This is a mid-term action, planned for Years 3 -5. There was no activity on this action during the 0-3 greywater systems that require a permit to cover the cost of
obtaining a permit. /Mid-term) reporting period.
a-x
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 38 of 46
ReCAP: Technical Appendix I
3.4.4 Limitations of method used to calculate
emissions from the natural gas category
Natural g~s for electricity generation
As discussed in the activity data collection section, the natural gas delivered to power plants and co-
generation plants primarily used for grid electricity supply is not included in this category. However, the
co-generation plants may use or sell the excess heat output (the by-product of electricity generation) or
use the electricity generated for other on-site facilities. limited information is available to determine how
much natural gas or excess heat output are consumed on-site. Some of the co-generation plants in the
San Diego region are subject to the EPA or CARB mandatory GHG reporting program, but only the total
GHG emissions at the facility-level are available. More detailed analysis is needed to develop a more
accurate assessment of the emissions from these facilities.
Out-of-boundary jurisdiction-owned facilities
Similar to the limitations in collecting electricity use data, the natural gas data are limited to the customer
addresses located within the jurisdiction's boundary. The data do not include natural gas at out-of-
boundary jurisdiction-owned facilities, unless they have been identified and specially added to the energy
data request.
Emission factor updates
The natural gas heat content is based on the characteristics of natural gas delivered to California
customers. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) updates the heat content monthly, including the
historic value. The historic value used may not match the latest update of historic value or the latest
updates of the CARB statewide inventory. The latest natural gas heat content from CARS statewide
inventory is used for the emission factor calculation'.
3.5 GH G emissions from the on-road transportation category
The GHG emissions from on-road transportation include the tailpipe emissions associated with VMT in
the San Diego region from all vehicles, including passenger cars, light-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks,
buses, motorcycles, etc. The emissions calculation method is based on 'TR.1 Emissions from Passenger
Vehicles' and 'TR.2 Emissions from Freight and Service Trucks' of the U.S Community Protocol using
activity data (VMT) from SANDAG's travel demand model and an emission factor (grams CO2eNMT)
based on the CARS mobile source emissions factor model (EMFAC).
3.5.1 Activity -vehicle miles traveled
In contrast with the activity data used for electricity and natural gas categories, activity data for the
transportation category is modeled (not measured) based on the best available information regarding
travel demand. The U.S. Community Protocol recommends jurisdictions use a regional travel demand
model to capture trips that start (origin) or end (destination) within the boundary of the jurisdiction, as it
recognizes that ''local government cannot influence all passenger vehi\:le's GHG emissions within city
boundaries. As such, the recommended origin-destination method (using an assignment-based travel
demand model) better captures a local government's ability to affect passenger vehicles emissions"
(ICLEI 2013, Appx. D p.8).
In the San Diego region, SANDAG uses an activity-based model (ABM) to support development of the
Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and generate outputs related to the transportation system
performance. Every three to five years, SAN DAG produces the Regional Growth Forecast, a long-range
forecast of population, housing, and employment growth for the San Diego region. SANDAG updates the
ABM with inputs from the Regional Growth Forecast and performs various model calibrations with
updated model inputs, parameters and software updates in between the model update years (SANDAG,
2016). Each Regional Growth Forecast is named a new Series. The most recent forecast is the Series 13,
2050 Regional Growth Forecast with a base year of 2012.
(SANDAG,ilf"
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Selection I 1G
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 40 of 46
ReCAP: Technical Appendix I
The SANDAG VMT data are provided in miles per weekday, and the last steps to calculate total VMT for
a community are to convert average weekday VMT to average daily VMT, then calculate annual VMT.
The weekday to annual conversion factor is based on the conversion factor from average weekday to
annual (347 weekdays to 365 days per year) described in the GARB statewide inventory technical
support d_ocument (GARB, 2016).
The annual VMT is calculated using Equation 4.
Equation 4 An nual VMT ca lculation
Where,
Annual VMT
VMTMptype
Annual VMT = I (VMT1,.;p type* Allocation Facto1i,·ip type)* 347
trip type
= annual VMT of a jurisdiction (miles/year)
= VMT for a given trip type (miles/weekday)
Allocation Factorrrip typa
347
= allocation factor using O-D Method of a given trip type(%)
= conversion factor, weekday to annual
With,
trip type = [Internal-Internal, Internal-External/External-Internal, External-External]
For example, using the VMT by trip type given in Table 10, the 2012 annual VMT for a sample jurisdiction
are 614,005,743 miles, as calculated in Equation 5.
Equation 5 E xample of a j u risdiction's a nnua l VMT ca lcu lation
A;mual VMT = L (VMT1,.;p tYP• * Allocation Factor1,.;µ typ.e) * 347
tl'ip type
(
miles miles miles ) = 241,151 kd * 100% + 3,056,636 Id * 50% + 594,264 kd * 0% * 347 wee ay wee , ay wee ay
miles = 614,005,743-·-year
3.5.2 Average vehicle emission rate
The average vehicle CO2 emission rate is derived from the statewide EMFAC mobile source emissions
model developed by GARB and converted to CO2e using a conversion rate derived from the EPA.
EMFAC CO2 emission rate
The current version of EMFAC is EMFAC2014, adopted by GARB in 2015. The EMFAC model has
undergone methodology and data source updates since its previous versions, EMFAC2007 and
EMFAC2011 . EMFAC2007 and EMFC2011 are the vehicle emission rate sources for most of the existing
GHG inventories used by jurisdictions in the San Diego region.
Table 12 represents the selections used to download emission rates output files from the EMFAC2014
web database. The smallest geographic area selection in the database is the Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) or county level; therefore, EPIC uses the emission rate in the San Diego region for
all jurisdictions in the region.
(§AND.AG,,,,
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections , and Target Selection I 19
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 43 of 46
T able ·12 EMFAC201 4 web database (v·I .0.7) d efault
mode selection for emission rate output
Category Selection
Data type Emission rates
Region MPO: SANDAG
County: San DieQo
Calendar year Inventory year
Season Annual
Vehicle cateQory EMFAC2011 cateQories (All)
Model year AaareQated or all model years
Speed AaareQated
Fuel All (Qas, diesel, electric)
ReCAP: Technical Appendix I
The EMFAC2014 emissions rate output file includes running, start, and idling exhaust emissions rates
for the criteria pollutants and CO2. To calculate the average vehicle CO2 emission rate, it is necessary to
use the. VMT distribution (also provided in the EMFAC output file) and the CO2 running exhaust emission
rate (emissions from vehicle tailpipe while traveling on roads) for each type of vehicle category with each
fuel type.
GARB released the next model version, EMFAC2017, in December 2017 and is expected to get approval
from EPA in 2018. EMFAC2017 includes a GHG module that provides GHG emission estimates directly,
including CO2, CH4 and N2O, assuming complete combustion of the fuel (all carbon content of the fuel is
converted to CO2) and CH4 and N2O emission rates based on GARB vehicle testing data. No off-model
CO2 to CO2e conversion (discussed in the following Section 3.5.2.2)will be needed once EMFAC2017 is
a~proved and.used for estimating emissions from on-road transportation.
EPIC is developing a Technical Working Paper, "Estimating a Greenhouse Gas Emission Rate for Miles
Driven: A Method for Climate Action Planning," which will include comparisons of the model versions and .
more details on estimating the average vehicle emission rate for GHG inventories and projections.
EPA CO2 to C02e conversion factor
·On-road .transportation also produces CH4 and N2O emissions. EMFAC2014 does not provide CH4 and
N2O exhaust emissions. Therefore, the CO2 emission rate is converted to a CO2e emission rate that
includes both CH4 and N2O emissions. The conversion factor is based on the EPA GHG Emissions
lnveritory. The latest EPA GHG Inventory provides CH4 and N2O emissions for fossil fuel combustion in
on-road vehicles and off-road equipment. Only the on-road CH4 and N2O emissions are used, and all fuel
types (gasoline, diesel, and alternative fuels) are included. The CH4 and N2O emissions are converted to
CO2e using the associated GWPs given in Table 4. Sources and methods are updated in each iteration of
the U.S. _GHG Emission Inventory. The CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions of the same year vary slightly in
each updated version. EPIC uses an average of the CO2e to CO2 emissions ratio from the most recent
three years as the conversion factor. This conversion factor is currently 1.01. ·
Table ·13 CO2, CH4, and thO .emissio ns from on-road
mobile c ombust ion in U .. S. (201 2-2 0 14)
CO2 emissions CH4 N20
Cal~ndar year emissions . emissions (MMT G02e) (MMTC02e) (MMT C02e)
2012 1,613 1.6 14.5
2013 1,628 1.6 14.5
2014 1,656 1.4 12.6
MMT -million metric tons
Source: EPA 2016
Total C02e to emissions
(MMT C02e} CO2 ratio
1,629 1.01
1,645 1.01
1,671 1.01
Average 1.01
(SANDAGi!fr Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Selection I 20
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 44 of 46
ReCAP: Technical Appendix I
Average vehicle C02e emission rate for the San Diego region
The average vehicle GHG emissions rate, or the combination of the conversion factor and the average
vehicle CO2 emission rate, can be calculated in terms of COze according to Equation 6. ·
E i.Iat ion 6 Average vehicle CO2e emission rate calculation (San Diego region)
C02e ERave = I (VMT Distrcategory,fuel * CO2 RUNEXcate9o,·y,fue,) * 1.01
class.fuel
Where,
CO2 eERavc
VMT Distl'catego,·y Juel
CO2 RUNEXcatego,·y fuel
1.01
With,
Class
= average vehicle CO2 emission rate of all vehicle classes and fuel types in
the region (grams COze per mile)
=VMT of a given vehicle class with a given fuel out of total VMT in the
San Diego region (%)
= CO2 running exhaust emissions of a given vehicle with a given fuel (grams
CO2 per mile) ·
= Conversion factor from CO2 to COze
= [EMFAC2011 Categories, EMFAC2014 Technical Documentation Table
6.1]
Fuel = [Gas, Diesel, Electric]
Using Equation 6 above, the San Diego region's average vehicle emission rates from 2012 to 2015 are
given in Table 14. ·
Table 14 Average vehicle emission rate (201 2-20·15) for the San Diego reg ion
Year Average vehicle emjssion factor
(gram C02e/mile)-
2012 483
2013 476
2014 468
2015 457
Source: GARB, EPIC 2016
3.5.3 Emissions calculation for on-road transportation category
Total emissions from the on-road transportation category are estimated by multiplying the average vehicle
emission rate in the San Diego region with the jurisdiction's annual VMT iri a given year, as shown in
Equation 7.
Equation 7 Emission calculatio n for on-road l ransporlation categ ory
Where,
GJJG Emissions1rn11s1,
annual VMT
C02e ER~vc
10-6
GHG E1hissio11s1rnusp = annual VMT "' C02 e ERave * 10-6
= emissions from on-road transportation category in a given year
{MT COze)
= annual VllilT of a jurisdiction (miles/year)
= average vehicle CO2e emission rate of all vehicle classes and fuel
types in the region (grams CO2e per mile)
= conversion factor, MT per gram CO2e
Using the example of the annual VMT from Equation 5, the annual on-road transportation emissions are
260,127 MT CO2e as calculated in Equation 8.
(§AIVDAGdp'
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Projections, and Target Seleclion I 21
Jan. 21, 2020 Item #5 Page 45 of 46
Climate Action Plan Update and Vehicle
Miles Traveled Calculations
Paz Gomez, Deputy City Manager, Public Works
Gary Barberio, Deputy City Manager, Community
Services
Jan. 21, 20201
Overview
•Carlsbad –early leader in preparing its Climate
Action Plan
•Vehicle Miles Traveled calculation error
•Short term and long term actions to correct
calculation and ensure CAP is in compliance
Jan. 21, 20202
Background
Climate Action Plan (CAP) adopted 2015
•Outlines how city will reduce its share of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
•Provides mitigation for General Plan update
•Intended to serve as a Qualified Plan under
California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA)
3 Jan. 21, 2020
Baseline measurements
CAP’s inventory of the city’s GHG emissions
based on:
1.Baseline inventory of emissions from 2005
2.Updated baseline for 2011
3.Calculation of city’s targets based on
reduction in emissions from 2005 baseline
4 Jan. 21, 2020
CAP’s targets
•By 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 15%
below the 2005 baseline
•By 2035, reduce GHG emissions to 49%
below the 2005 baseline
5 Jan. 21, 2020
Monitoring and adjustments
CAP includes monitoring of:
•Annual progress in implementing CAP measures
•Biannual inventory of GHG emissions
•Periodic GHG emissions forecasts
If forecasts indicate insufficient progress toward meeting GHG targets, the city may consider new or revised measures
6 Jan. 21, 2020
New emissions inventories
•New GHG emissions data from 2016 now available
•City’s ongoing monitoring revealed calculation
error in original vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
baseline
o Led to lower GHG inventory and lower reduction targets
7 Jan. 21, 2020
Impact on CAP
Incorrect VMT calculation means:
•CAP may no longer constitute as a Qualified
Plan
•Staff will stop assessing projects’ GHG impacts
using the CAP as a Qualified Plan until VMT
error is addressed
8 Jan. 21, 2020
Next steps
•CAP Progress Report to City Council in April
•Staff developing other data to assess GHG
impacts of projects until CAP is updated
•Focused update to CAP
•Comprehensive update to CAP along with
city’s Housing Element update
9 Jan. 21, 2020
Thank you
10 Jan. 21, 2020