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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2023-05-16; City Council; ; Economic and Financial Update for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022-23CA Review CKM Meeting Date: May 16, 2023 To: Mayor and City Council From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager Staff Contact: Zach Korach, Finance Director zach.korach@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2127 Matt Sanford, Economic Development Manager matt.sanford@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-5987 Subject: Economic and Financial Update for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022-23 Districts: All Recommended Actions Receive a report on the economic and financial update for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022- 23 and provide direction as appropriate. Executive Summary The City Manager has committed to providing quarterly updates to the City Council on the economic outlook and the city’s finances. The update reviews the city’s economic and fiscal health and serves as a measure of budgetary performance. While substantial recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has occurred, economic uncertainty has increased fueled by, among other factors, geopolitical conflict and rising inflation. In this report, staff will provide a presentation on: •National, state, regional and Carlsbad-specific economic data •The city’s most recent financial data This report details recent economic trends and information on current impacts to our local economy. In line with regional trends, Carlsbad saw increases in revenues in almost all categories when compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year, and expenditures are in line with the prior year’s rate of spending. Explanation & Analysis Economic update Carlsbad’s economy is diverse, has strong industry clusters and is a leader in innovation. According to the most recent biennial business survey of Carlsbad businesses, released in January 2022, five key industry clusters are driving growth: •Life sciences •Information, communications and technologies •Cleantech •Sports innovation and design •Hospitality and tourism May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 1 of 25 The gross regional product for Carlsbad is $15.8 billion, indicating that Carlsbad has the largest economy in the county behind the City of San Diego. Companies that call Carlsbad home are at the forefront in areas of technology and innovation, and the city’s hospitality and tourism industry generates the second-highest amount of transient occupancy tax, the tax on local hospitality stays, among the county’s 18 cities. In 2022, Carlsbad’s economy grew by roughly $1.07 billion, with a total gross regional product of $15.8 billion. Growth occurred in all sectors except the mining and oil and gas extraction sector, which contracted slightly. Wholesale trade, manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services, and hospitality and food service were the leading growth sectors for Carlsbad in 2022. Through most of 2022, Carlsbad’s unemployment rate fluctuated between 2% and 3%. In January, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.4% and ticked up to 3.5% in February and March. Macrotrends in the tech industry are pushing unemployment up nationally, but the labor market is still seen as being very tight. The unemployment rate in March was 4.8% at the state level and 3.7% at the county level. In the first quarter, the financial industry was impacted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). SVB was a major player in the entrepreneurship and startup ecosystem. The ripple effects of the SVB failure, and the subsequent failure of First Republic Bank, could have tumultuous impacts for San Diego and Carlsbad-based startups and entrepreneurs – a key focal point in the city’s Economic Development Strategic Plan. Combined with the continued rise in interest rates, capital will be harder to access for some developing companies. This could stunt growth and potentially lead to downsizing. Some economists are predicting the United States is at or near the peak of inflation, although many predict continued interest rate hikes are likely. With these pressures on the financial system, most economists agree that a recession is looming, although the length and severity is debated. The continued rise in interest rates is also impacting property values in Carlsbad. The median home price in Carlsbad fell $98,000 in the last quarter. Median home prices rose consistently in Carlsbad between March 2019 and July 2022 and have since been falling. The current median home price is $1,338,506, which is roughly equivalent to the median home price in December 2021. Commercial real estate was more resilient last quarter in Carlsbad, with rental rates continuing to rise in all categories, office, industrial and retail. However, commercial developers are largely holding off on building new developments and office space elsewhere in the region and the county is seeing a rise in vacancy and a drop in value, an indicator of instability. To ensure the city remains responsive to the changing landscape, staff have capitalized on greater in-house economic data capabilities and analytics developed over the past year to publish a quarterly economic scan. The full economic scan for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022-23 is provided as Exhibit 1. Staff also publish relevant data on the city’s economic development site, carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness. May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 2 of 25 Financial update The COVID-19 pandemic created immense uncertainty in the city’s revenues, most notably in sales tax and transient occupancy tax, the tax assessed on local hotel and motel stays. The fiscal year 2021-22 adopted budget had anticipated continued adverse impacts from the pandemic with moderate recovery. However, based on audited financial statements for fiscal year 2021- 22, General Fund revenues in total, specifically property, sales and transient occupancy tax revenues, reached historically high levels. This was mainly due to the staggered removal of COVID-19 restrictions, coupled with pent-up demand and inflationary increases. While recovery from the pandemic was accelerated compared to original estimations, new uncertainty surrounding the economy is looming. Significant inflation and its impacts on disposable income, personal savings, tourism and the housing market indicate that maintaining a conservative outlook for the city’s revenues is prudent. The March 2023 Financial Status Report is provided as Exhibit 3. Revenues The majority of health order restrictions on businesses have been lifted since the fiscal year 2021-22 budget was adopted in June 2021, and the results have been positive across most of the city’s revenue streams. The General Fund’s top three revenue sources – property, sales and transient occupancy tax – reached historic highs in fiscal year 2021-22. The fiscal year 2022-23 adopted budget took a conservative approach at estimating these revenue sources. However, year-over-year increases through the second quarter are notably positive given the amount of uncertainty in the economy. The table below shows the differences in revenue when comparing quarter 2 of fiscal year 2022-23 with the same period in the prior fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022-23 year to date revenues as of March 2023 compared to fiscal year 2021-22 as of March 2022 Revenue category Change ($) Change (%) Transient occupancy tax $4,352,601 20% Property tax $4,102,929 8% Sales tax $3,510,930 9% Charges for services $1,895,078 26% Investments, property income $732,045 19% Interdepartmental charges $452,627 12% Licenses and permits $383,304 20% Other revenues sources $72,601 8% Fines and forfeitures $48,477 19% Intergovernmental -$237,299 -21% Other taxes -$390,969 -4.5% As noted above, the city’s three major revenue sources are property tax, sales tax and transient occupancy tax. May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 3 of 25 Property tax The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. Increases through the third quarter are due to an increase in assessed property values and aircraft taxes as a result of additional aircraft being housed at the airport. Sales tax Sales tax revenues to date represent receipts that were collected for the third and fourth calendar quarters of 2022, but they also include a portion of the city’s sales tax receipts from January 2022 through June 2022, as well as the first advance of the city’s sales tax revenues from the first calendar quarter of 2023. The prior fiscal year saw accelerated recovery from the impacts of COVID-19 and ended with historical levels of revenues. For sales occurring in the fourth calendar quarter of 2022, the city experienced gains over the same period last year, primarily in the categories of new auto sales and light industry. While much uncertainty remains surrounding inflation and its impacts on disposable income and savings, increased inflation appears to be increasing the level of sales tax revenues through the third quarter. Transient occupancy tax Year-to-date transient occupancy tax figures represent taxes collected on hotel receipts through the month of February 2023. The revenues received through the third quarter represent an increase of $4.3 million, or 20% when compared to the same year to date period last year. This increase is largely due to a small increase in the average daily room rate and an increase in occupancy rates (70.8% up from 65.0%). Expenditures and encumbrances Overview Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances – those funds either spent or committed for specific expenses – through the month of March 2023 are $165.3 million, compared to $163.2 million at the same time last year. While the year-over-year change is $2.1 million, or 1.3%, there are varying factors in how each of the respective years’ expenditure totals are derived. During the first three quarters of fiscal year 2021-22, the City Council authorized: • $10.7 million transfer related to the Technology Investment Program in support of the Strategic Digital Transformation Investment Program • $7.8 million transfer to the General Capital Construction Fund from fiscal year 2020-21 General Fund surplus • $5.5 million additional discretionary payment to CalPERS, the state’s public employees pension system During the first three quarters of fiscal year 2022-23, the City Council authorized: • $10.2 million transfer to the city’s Workers’ Compensation Internal Service Fund • $1 million transfer to the city’s Risk Management Internal Service Fund • $1.4 million transfer to the city’s Fleet Maintenance Internal Service Fund May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 4 of 25 Surplus On an annual basis, staff recommend to the City Council one-time expenditure uses for any surplus in the city’s General Fund. City Council-authorized expenditures of the General Fund of surplus were greater than in 2022-23. Although the fiscal year 2022-23 adopted budget was $13.8 million, or 7.5%, greater than the previous year, the difference in the authorized surplus expenditures contributed to comparable expenditure totals in both years. Excluding the transfers out, contingencies and certain non-departmental charges, the percentage of available budget on March 31, 2023, is 28.3%, slightly less than the 28.4% available in the prior year on March 31, 2022. Pension funding CalPERS and pension funding has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies like the City of Carlsbad. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan, and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS addresses a structural shortfall in plan assets to cover unfunded liabilities. In support of CalPERS’s strategies for plan sustainability, and as part of the city’s strategic, long- term approach to financial management, the city actively manages its unfunded pension liability. Since fiscal year 2016-17, the City Council has approved additional discretionary payments totaling $56.4 million to decrease future costs of the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and the city strives to achieve a funded status of 80% in accordance with City Council Policy Statement No. 86, the city’s pension funding policy. In CalPERS’s latest actuarial valuation report (as of June 30, 2021), the city had a combined pension funded status of 86%, which was predominantly driven by CalPERS’s fiscal year 2020-21 investment return of 21.3%. This positive return will not impact the city’s required contributions until fiscal year 2023-24. CalPERS recently announced a preliminary net investment return of -6.1% for fiscal year 2021-22, which will significantly reduce the city’s total funded status and have a tremendous impact on the city’s future costs. This negative return will not impact the city’s required contributions until fiscal year 2024-25. Staff will continue to monitor CalPERS’s strategies and performance and report to the City Council as necessary and appropriate. Enterprise funds The city’s water and wastewater enterprise funds1 continue to operate in line with budgeted expectations. The city’s municipal golf course, The Crossings at Carlsbad, continues to exceed budgeted estimates due to higher-than-expected demand for golf. Fiscal Analysis This is an informational item with no fiscal impact. 1 Enterprise funds are government funds usually used to account for operations that are financed and operated in a manner similar to private business enterprises, with the services provided paid for primarily through user charges. May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 5 of 25 Next Steps The city will continue to develop tools to understand the economy, attract businesses and cultivate talent. Staff will continue to provide quarterly updates to the City Council on the economic outlook and the city’s finances. Environmental Evaluation This informational report does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065. It has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment. Exhibits 1. Economic Scan Fiscal Year 2022-2023 Q3 2. March 2023 Financial Status Report May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 6 of 25 1 Third Quarter, Fiscal Year 2022-2023 The following scan provides an overview of key economic indicators for January, February, and March 2023 for the City of Carlsbad. This economic scan is updated quarterly to provide information that is relevant to the health of Carlsbad’s economy. For regularly updated information regarding the Carlsbad economy and economic development visit carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness. GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT Carlsbad GRP (Source: Lightcast, 2022) $15.8B In 2022, Carlsbad had the second largest gross regional product in San Diego County at nearly $15.8B, only trailing the City of San Diego. In 2019, Carlsbad’s economy grew by $800 million to nearly $13.6 billion. In 2020, as a result of the pandemic, the city’s GRP remained flat. In 2021, Carlsbad’s economy grew by approximately $1 billion, to nearly $14.6 billion. From 2021 to 2022, Carlsbad’s GRP grew by $1.07B. This growth was seen across almost all industry categories, and was led by manufacturing, wholesale trade, hospitality, and professional, scientific, & technical services. JOBS Unemployment Rate (Source: California Employment Development Department, March 2023 Report) Through most of 2022, Carlsbad’s unemployment rate fluctuated between 2% and 3%. In January, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.4% and ticked up to 3.5% in February and March. Macro-trends in the tech industry are pushing unemployment up nationally, but the labor market is still seen as being very tight. The unemployment rate in March was 4.8% at the state level and 3.7% at the county level. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Carlsbad Unemployment Rate 2022 vs 2023 2022 2023 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Unemployment Rate Comparison 2023 Carlsbad San Diego County North County Avg w/o Carlsbad California Innovation + Economic Development Department Exhibit 1 May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 7 of 25 Economic Scan {city of Carlsbad 2 Job Postings (Source: Lightcast, January - March 2023) 12,258 There were 12,258 unique job postings in Carlsbad between January and March, a decrease of about 1,100 jobs from the previous quarter, and the third consecutive quarterly decrease. The median advertised salary for these postings was $51,100, which is on average $5,000 more than jobs posted in the previous quarter, an indicator of wage inflation. Of jobs posted, 70% indicated an education requirement of High School/GED or no requirement listed. 65% of postings indicated no experience was required, indicating that entry-level positions are difficult to fill and retain. TALENT + WORKFORCE Education (Source: 2021 ACS 5-Year Estimates, the latest year available) Carlsbad has established itself as having the right workforce to fuel innovation in tech and life sciences fields. Carlsbad businesses can access talent from San Diego County, Orange County, and even southwest Riverside County. More than 60% of working-age residents hold a bachelor’s degree, with nearly 25% attaining an advanced degree. Outside of some communities in central San Diego, Carlsbad has the heaviest concentration of households with degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM degrees). This local talent mix is among the leading reasons that firms choose Carlsbad. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%40.00% Less Than High School High School Diploma Some College, no Degree Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment Comparison Percent of Population Over 25 Years Old National California San Diego County Carlsbad Nearby public and private universities offer top-notch programs. Within a 30- mile radius, more than a half-dozen universities and colleges confer more than 35,000 degrees annually. The Carlsbad business community works closely with higher education partners to align various education tracks with local workforce needs. Talent Pipeline Degrees Conferred by University, Displayed as Distance from Carlsbad San Diego State University9,671 Proximity in Miles from CarlsbadMay 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 8 of 25 0 ~ .•• _ 111, 1111 ... .--111 111l ■ ■ ■ ■ GK Cal State MiraCoSta San Marcos sK c;~:!e 3,578 " :: l UC San Diego 10,266 National University 5,322 University of San Diego 2,780 .... 3 CAPITAL Interest Rates (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 2023) National interest rates continue to rise as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat inflation. One-year rates are currently at 4.64%. Ten-year rates are currently at 3.48%. 30-year rates are currently at 3.67%. Combined with the continued rise in interest rates, capital will be harder to access for some developing companies. This could stunt growth and potentially lead to downsizing. Some economists are predicting the United States is at or near the peak of inflation, although many predict continued interest rate hikes are likely. With these pressures on the financial system, most economists agree that a recession is looming, although the length and severity is debated. March 2022 One-year interest rate 1.63% 10-year interest rate 2.32% 30-year interest rate 2.44% March 2023 One-year interest rate 4.64% 10-year interest rate 3.48% 30-year interest rate 3.67% COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Market Vacancy Rates and Rent per Square Foot (Source: CoStar, March 2023) Commercial vacancy rates remain relatively steady across all categories. The industrial vacancy rate ended the quarter at 3.6%. The office vacancy rate in March was 12.6%. Retail vacancy in March was 5.8%. Rental rates were also relatively steady across all categories. Average market rents per square foot, per year for office rates in March were $38.60. Industrial rates in March were $19.40. Retail rates in March were $44.49. Commercial developers are largely holding off on new developments and office space elsewhere in the region and the county is seeing a rise in vacancy and a drop in value, an indicator of instability. This trend is predicted to continue. 3.6% Industrial vacancy rate 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Carlsbad Commercial Vacancy Rates Carlsbad Retail Carlsbad Office Carlsbad Industrial 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Retail Office Industrial Retail Office Industrial Carlsbad North County w/o Carlsbad Vacancy Rate Comparison 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 9 of 25 I I .. ,- ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 4 TOURISM Occupancy averaged 65.3% in the third quarter, which exceeded the same quarter for 2022 (63.3%). The impacts of inflation and a potential recession could hamper tourism globally, but Carlsbad is well-positioned as a destination that will could see strong tourism through a recession. 42 With 42 hotels in Carlsbad, tourism is a major industry in terms of employment and economic impact. It is also a major contributor to city revenue, through TOT and sales tax generation. Below are several indicators reflecting the health of the city’s tourism economy. Hotel Occupancy (Source: Smith Travel Research, March 2023 Report) Carlsbad’s average daily room rate (ADR) continues to exceed historic norms. ADR averaged $195.63 in the third quarter, compared to $179.98 for the same quarter in 2022. Because of the elevated occupancy rate and higher ADR, Tourism is on track to finish the fiscal year ahead of projections. Hotel Average Daily Room Rate (Source: Smith Travel Research, March 2023 Report) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avgerage Daily Rate 2022 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA City of Carlsbad, 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hotel Occupancy 2022 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA City of Carlsbad, 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hotel Occupancy 2023 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avgerage Daily Rate 2023 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 10 of 25 ----- 5 INCOME + HOUSING Median Household Income (Source: 2021 ACS 5-Year Estimates, the latest year available) Median household income in Carlsbad continues to exceed county income levels. The median income for a household in Carlsbad in 2021 was $124,669, (adjusted for inflation), which was $33,666 higher than the county median income. Carlsbad has generally outpaced the region in terms of household income growth. Median Home Price (Source: Zillow Home Value Index - March 2023) The continued rise in interest rates has impacted property values in Carlsbad. The median home price in Carlsbad fell $98,000 in the last quarter. Median home prices rose consistently in Carlsbad between March 2019 and July 2022 and have since been falling. The current median home price is $1,338,506, which is roughly equivalent to the median home price in December 2021. $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Carlsbad Median Home Price Jan 2019 - Present $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Median Home Price Comparison -2023 Carlsbad North County Avg May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 11 of 25 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 City of Carlsbad Median Household Income $113,217 $102,722 $107,172 $123,409 $112,933 $124,669 County of San Diego Median Household Income $70,824 $70,588 $74,855 $79,324 $82,426 $91 ,003 City of Carlsbad per Capita Income $49,349 $52,560 $55,518 $63,079 $57,607 $65,430 County of San Diego per Capita Income $32,482 $34,350 $36,156 $40,389 $39,737 $44,377 6 BUSINESS ACTIVITY Business Licenses (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2023) There were a total of 2,940 business licenses issued last quarter, including 1165 non-residential, 817 residential, and 958 outside- the-city licenses. This is an increase of 130 total businesses over the same quarter of 2022. The number of licenses issued does not reflect the number of businesses in Carlsbad as a business may carry multiple licenses, short-term vacation rentals are required to get a license, and businesses outside of Carlsbad that do business in the city or with the city are required to get a license. It is estimated that there are approximately 6,747 businesses in Carlsbad. Building Permits (Source: City of Carlsbad, March 2023) Between October and December, permit activity increased for residential building permits (1,349), continuing a strong trend. The number of residential building permits issued has been generally increasing over the past several years. Commercial permits issued (83), continued a slowing trend in commercial development over the last four quarters, matching projections of a slowdown in commercial real estate development. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l 2020 2021 2022 2023 Building Permits Issued Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Business Licenses Issued by Quarter Non-Residential Residential Outside City Total May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 12 of 25 --- - ■ ■ ■ ■ 7 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Life Sciences (Source: 2022 Business Report and Industry Cluster Update) The Life Sciences industry cluster employs 6,657 workers across 134 firms and experienced a 2.6% increase in employment between 2018 and 2020. The cluster is 5.51 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $123,702. San Diego County and California have experienced parallel employment growth in the Life Sciences cluster between 2010 and 2020. In the same ten-year period, employment in Carlsbad grew by 75%. Between 2016 and 2018, Carlsbad experienced over 40% growth. Over the past two years (2018-2020), however, employment growth tapered off compared to years prior. Technology (Source: 2022 Business Report and Industry Cluster Update) The Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) cluster employs 9,008 workers across 343 firms in Carlsbad and is 2.75 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average. Annual wages per worker average $136,254, and the ICT industry cluster experienced a 3.3% increase in the number of jobs between 2018 and 2020. San Diego County and California experienced steady parallel growth in the ICT cluster between 2010 and 2020. In the same ten-year period, Carlsbad experienced an initial decline in employment between 2012 and 2015; between 2015 and 2020, employment in the ICT cluster has steadily trended upwards. Clean Technology (Source: 2022 Business Report and Industry Cluster Update) Between 2018 and 2020, the number of workers employed at Cleantech firms increased by 22.2%. By 2019, the 48 Cleantech firms in Carlsbad employed more than 872 people. The average annual wage per worker is $109,779, and the Cleantech industry cluster in Carlsbad is 4.66 times more concentrated than the national average. Between 2010 and 2012, Carlsbad experienced an initial employment drop for the Cleantech industry followed by steady growth between 2012 and 2020. Employment growth in California peaked in 2013 and has been on a steady decline since. Growth in San Diego County also peaked in 2013, dropping by over 25% between 2013 and 2017. Since 2017, employment in the Cleantech cluster for San Diego County has been on a steady increase. Sports Innovation & Design (Source: 2022 Business Report and Industry Cluster Update) The Sports Innovation & Design industry cluster employs 1,804 workers across 116 firms and experienced a 16.3% decrease in employment between 2018 and 2020. The cluster is 5.06 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and annual wages per worker average $75,652. Employment in the Sports Innovation & Design cluster has steadily declined since 2013 in Carlsbad. Both San Diego County and California have declined steadily since 2015 and experienced sharp declines between 2019 and 2020, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospitality & Tourism (Source: 2022 Business Report and Industry Cluster Update) Carlsbad’s Hospitality & Tourism cluster is about 1.35 times more concentrated in Carlsbad than the national average and employs 9,179 people across 467 businesses. Hospitality & Tourism experienced a sharp 34% decrease in employment between 2018 and 2020, driven by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2019 and 2020. Average annual wages per worker remain low relative to other key industry clusters, with workers earning $31,315 on average. Carlsbad, San Diego County, and California experienced sharp declines between 2019 and 2020, during which sub-clusters like Theater Companies and Dinner Theaters, Amusement and Theme Parks, and Amusement Arcades were shut down to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 13 of 25 8 INDUSTRY IMPACT Largest Industries (Source: Lightcast, March 2023) Carlsbad’s economy significantly exceeds the national average in manufacturing, accommodation and food services, and professional, scientific and technical services jobs. These sectors, which would include tech, life sciences, and other innovation industries are generally more resilient to recessions, also represent significant job growth in the economy. GRP by Industry Industry size by employment May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 14 of 25 • Gross Regional Product Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services W holesale Trade Finance and Insurance Retail Trade Government Information Accommodc1tion and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction ---- Utilities Other Services {except Public Administration) Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Agriculture , Forestry, Fishing and H unting $0.000 $500.0M • Industry Jobs Professional, Scientific, and Technicc1I Services Manufacturing Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Government Health Ca..-e and Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Administ..-ative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Construction Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Information Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Agriculture, Forestry. Fishing and Hunting ,_ I I I I 0 2,000 $1.0008 $1.5008 • National Average I I I I I 4,000 6,000 $2.0008 $2.5008 ,_ 8,000 10,000 12,000 9 INNOVATION Patents (Source: 2020 Carlsbad Industry Cluster Patent Update) Four of the key industry clusters mentioned above drive innovation activity in Carlsbad. The figure below shows that while the life sciences cluster has been a long-term driver of the city’s innovation economy, information & communications technology patents have seen dramatic growth over the past ten years and was responsible for virtually the same number of new patents as life sciences in 2019. It is also worth noting that clean technology, which is the industry cluster with the lowest number of patents, has grown by more than 800% since 2009. All told, these four industry clusters accounted for 96% of all patents awarded to Carlsbad firms in 2019. Patents per Capita 2019 Patents per 1,000 Workers in the Labor Force Carlsbad has a notably higher proportion of patents per 1,000 workers—over 60% more than the next-closest competitor city. This figure shows that Carlsbad has a greater concentration of patent activity than even the technology hubs of San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco, and Boston. In 2019, Carlsbad had 1.6 patents for every 1 patent per 1,000 workers in San Jose. That ratio was 2.5 and 2.8 for Seattle and San Francisco. Released May 15, 2023 The quarterly economic scan is developed by the City of Carlsbad Innovation & Economic Development Department. For more information, visit carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness, or contact the team at business@carlsbadca.gov. May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 15 of 25 Growth in Patents Held by Carlsbad Businesses 350 209% 300 .... C 250 ::J 0 u .... 200 C ~ "' c.. 150 "' ::J C C 100 <l'. so 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -clean Technology -Information and Communications Technology -Life Sciences -sports Innovation and Design Portland -Denver -Baltimore -Pittsburgh Austin Boston San Francisco Seattle San Jose Carlsbad 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Exhibit 2 This report summarizes the City of Carlsbad’s General Fund revenues and expenditures through March 31, 2023. It compares revenues and expenditures for the first nine months of fiscal year 2022-23 and fiscal year 2021-22. In addition, the financial status of the Water and Wastewater Enterprises are included. This report is for internal use only. The figures presented here are unaudited and have not been prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. General Fund Revenues Property Taxes ($52.7 million) – The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year. According to the County of San Diego Assessor’s Office, assessed values in Carlsbad have increased by 8.13% for fiscal year 2022-23. This is the tenth year in a row that Carlsbad’s assessed values have increased from year to year, and in line with assessed value increases with other cities in San Diego County for the year. This reflects continued strength in the regional housing market. The increase in this year’s assessed values is due to a large increase in the assessed values of residential properties in the city; the city saw smaller increases in commercial and industrial property values for the year. This is the eighth year in a row since the Great Recession ended that the city saw increases in assessed values in all three property components (residential, commercial and industrial). The property taxes for the first nine months of the fiscal year have increased by 8% as compared to the prior fiscal year. The primary reasons for the increase are: •Current taxes are up by $2.7 million or 7.3% mainly due to increased assessed values. •Supplemental and surplus property taxes are $549,000 higher when compared with the prior year. •Aircraft taxes are also up $560,000 or 41% due to an increase in aircrafts being housed at the airport. Sales Taxes ($42.3 million) – For the first nine months of the fiscal year, sales tax revenues are $3.5 million higher than the same period in the previous fiscal year. Sales tax revenues to date for the current fiscal year represent the city’s first advance for the first calendar quarter of 2023, the city’s sales tax revenues for the third and fourth calendar quarters of 2022, and a large portion of the city’s second calendar quarter of 2022 sales tax revenues. In the prior fiscal year, the city saw accelerated recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic including the shelter-in-place orders, which essentially shut down all non-essential businesses, and where small businesses in the State of California were allowed to defer sales tax payments. FY 2021-22 experienced historically high levels of sales tax revenues. For sales occurring in the fourth calendar quarter of 2022 (the most recent data available), key year-over-year gains were seen in new auto sales and light industry. During the same period, key declines were seen in apparel stores. The largest economic segments in the city are automobile dealers, general retail stores, and restaurants. Together, they generate 76% of the city’s sales tax revenues. March 31, 2023 8% 9% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 16 of 25 PRE.P,AREO BY THE Fl:NANCE 01 EPAR:TMENT Financia l Status Report FOR SALE {city of Ca,rlsbad Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 2 Transient Occupancy Tax ($26.5 million) – The city’s third highest General Fund revenue source on an annual basis is Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT or hotel tax), estimated at $28.8 million for the current fiscal year. A tax of 10% of the rent amount is collected on all occupancies less than 30 days (transient) in duration. Year-to-date TOT figures represent taxes collected on hotel receipts through the month of February 2023. TOT collected for the nine months of the fiscal year reflects an increase of $4.4 million, or 20%, more than the previous year. Currently, there are 4,776 hotel rooms in service (of 5,067 total rooms built in the city and 343 registered short- term vacation rentals. The average occupancy of hotel rooms over the most recent 12 months has been 70.8% which is slightly higher than 65.0% at this time last year. Business License Tax ($2.6 million) – All entities doing business in the City of Carlsbad are required to have a valid business license. Business license revenue is estimated at $6.2 million for the current fiscal year. Business license revenues are down $192,500, or 4%, from the previous fiscal year. The decrease is due to a reduction in payments received for overdue business license renewals and penalties that were received last year and as a result of COVID-19. There are currently 9,514 licensed businesses operating within the city, five less than the prior year. The majority of taxed businesses (6,375 businesses) are located in Carlsbad, with 2,462 of these businesses home-based. Interdepartmental Charges ($4.4 million) – Interdepartmental charges are up by $453,000 when compared with the same period last year. These charges are generated through engineering services charged to capital projects (up $281,000 due to more staff time charged to capital projects); reimbursed work from other funds (up $15,700); and miscellaneous interdepartmental expenses charged to funds outside the General Fund for services performed by departments within the General Fund (up $156,000). Income from Investments and Property ($4.7 million) – For the first nine months of the fiscal year, income from investments and property is up $730,000 compared to the previous fiscal year. This increase is largely due to a 53.6% rise in yield from 1.16% as of March 2022 to 2.03% as of March 2023. Throughout the pandemic, the Federal Reserve had maintained an effective benchmark rate between 0 and 0.25%. However, inflation has been on a historic rise for much of the last year and resulted in the Federal Reserve increasing benchmark rates all the way to 4.75%-5% as of March 2023. While 2022 saw repeated and large interest rate hikes, 2023 is expected to see hiking interest rates at a slower and more deliberate pace. Recreation Fees ($2.2 million) – Recreation fees are generated through instructional classes, camps, youth and adult sports, special events, parent participation preschool, senior programs, and various aquatic programs. Recreation revenues are up by $461,000 compared to last year at this time. While programs began to reopen more in the summer of 2021, this increase can also be attributed to recovery growth since the onset of the pandemic. 12% 20% 26% 19% 4% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 17 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 3 Development Related Revenues ($3.5 million) – Development related revenues, which include building permits, planning fees, building department fees, and engineering fees, reflect a 20% increase for the first nine months of the fiscal year. Development related fees are paid by developers to cover a portion of the cost of reviewing and monitoring development activities, such as plan checks and inspections. Engineering plan check fees are one of the first fees paid during the initial stages of development. Activity during the third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022-23 included permits associated with the new residential construction of 16 second dwelling units, 12 condominiums, 3 single family homes, 110 apartments (70 for Aviara Apartments and 40 for Pacific Wind Apartments) and various homeowner improvements. Commercial permit activity included permits associated with the Beach Village Life Hotel (40,000 sq. ft.) and a commercial building at the Raceway development (27,000 sq. ft.) as well as permits related to various tenant improvements. One source of development related revenue is building permits, which are up 43% compared to last fiscal year. The year-to-date valuation of new construction in the current fiscal year is $194.1 million. This represents a $61.5 million, or 46%, increase over the previous fiscal year. Franchise Tax ($2.6 million) – Franchise taxes are generated from public utility sources, such as San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), trash collection franchises, and cable franchises conducting business within city limits. Franchise tax revenue is estimated to be at $6.9 million for the current fiscal year. Year-to- date franchise taxes are $342,000 higher when compared to the same period last year. Cable television franchise revenues (Spectrum and AT&T) are up $7,200 representing a relatively nominal amount of change for subscription services (premium video, equipment rental, on-demand, and programming services). An increase in trash collection revenue of $304,000 resulted from the city’s most recent contract with Republic Services, the city’s waste services provider. SDG&E pays franchise taxes for the use of public land over which they transport gas and electric services. In addition, SDG&E pays an “in-lieu” franchise tax based on the value of gas and electricity transported through SDG&E lines but purchased from another source. The “in-lieu” tax was put in place to capture the franchise taxes on gas and electricity that is transported using public lands, but which would not otherwise be included in the calculations for franchise taxes. Approximately 46% of the city’s franchise taxes are anticipated to be received from SDG&E in April 2023. Ambulance Fees ($3.9 million) – The city bills any individual who is transported in one of the city’s ambulances. Through March 2023, receipts from ambulance fees are up $1.6 million, or 70%, compared to last fiscal year. The increase in revenue for the first nine months of the fiscal year is mainly due to an increase in the number of billable transports, 5,525 in the first nine months of fiscal year 2022-23 versus 4,529 at the same time in the prior fiscal year. Other Revenue Sources ($1 million) – Other revenue sources have increased by 72,600 and include revenues received by the city to offset the costs of special studies or projects for developers; reimbursements for damage done to city streets, rights-of-way, and other city-owned property; donations; reimbursement from the Gas Tax Fund for traffic signal maintenance; and miscellaneous reimbursed expenses and refunds of prior year fees. The increase to date is related to higher amounts received for developer funded studies in the current fiscal year when compared to the prior fiscal year. 20% 70% 15% 8% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 18 of 25 ~·~ Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 4 Other Licenses and Permits ($724,000) – Other licenses and permits consist of fire protection services, right-of-way, lagoon, grading, hazardous uses, and other miscellaneous permit revenues. These permits usually increase/decrease along with increases/decreases in development activity. Other licenses and permit revenues can vary throughout the year. To date, the decrease of $91,000 is primarily a result of decreased coastal development and right of way permits when compared to the same period last year. Fines and Forfeitures ($301,000) – Fines and forfeitures represent fees collected for code violations, parking citations, overdue fines, and returned checks. The city recognizes revenues when the citizen pays the fine or forfeiture, as opposed to when the fine is imposed. The increase to date of $48,000 is mainly due to increases in code violation assessments. Intergovernmental Revenues ($875,000) – Intergovernmental revenues include homeowners property tax exemption revenue and miscellaneous receipts received from the state or federal governments, as well as local school districts. Various miscellaneous receipts comprise the $875,000 received this year which represents a decrease of 21% over the same period last year. This decrease is mainly due to federal reimbursements received for COVID-19 related sick leave that were received in the prior fiscal year that were not repeated in the current fiscal year. Transfer Taxes ($934,000) – When real property is sold, the County Assessor’s Office charges a transfer tax. The transfer tax rate in San Diego County is $0.0011 multiplied by the selling price of the property. The city receives 50% of the transfer tax charged for sales within the City of Carlsbad. Revenues have decreased over the same period last year due to a decrease in property transfers. Other Charges or Fees ($994,000) – Other charges or fees are generated through the sale of city documents, such as staff reports, blueprints and copies; general fees collected for false alarms, easements and agreements, weed abatement and kiosk signs; and general services, such as mutual aid response, mall police services, emergency response services, reports, etc. These fees are down by $272,000, or 21% mainly due to a decrease in fire mutual aid response reimbursements when compared to the prior fiscal year. A detailed schedule of General Fund revenues is provided on the following page. 11% 19% 37% 21% 21% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 19 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 5 REVENUE REVENUE EXPECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL CHANGE FROM BUDGETED THROUGH FY 2022 FY 2023 YTD 2022 TO PERCENT FOR FY 2022-23 03/31/23 AS OF 03/31/22 AS OF 03/31/2023 YTD 2023 CHANGE TAXES PROPERTY TAX $81,508,000 $49,481,343 $48,575,209 $52,678,138 $4,102,929 8% SALES TAX 49,123,000 37,278,001 38,835,524 42,346,454 3,510,930 9% TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX 28,803,000 19,653,769 22,110,079 26,462,680 4,352,601 20% FRANCHISE TAX 6,958,000 2,491,844 2,281,602 2,623,485 341,883 15% BUSINESS LICENSE TAX 6,242,000 4,633,539 4,913,611 4,721,106 (192,505)-4% TRANSFER TAX 1,570,000 1,062,578 1,474,559 934,212 (540,347) -37% TOTAL TAXES 174,204,000 114,601,074 118,190,584 129,766,075 11,575,491 10% INTERGOVERNMENTAL VEHICLE LICENSE FEES 50,000 50,000 133,433 118,477 (14,956) -11% HOMEOWNERS EXEMPTIONS 353,000 176,500 169,133 168,461 (672) 0% OTHER REIMBURSEMENT 752,809 82,134 809,413 587,742 (221,671) -27% TOTAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL 1,155,809 308,634 1,111,979 874,680 (237,299) -21% LICENSES AND PERMITS BUILDING PERMITS 900,000 586,587 1,102,455 1,577,122 474,667 43% OTHER LICENSES & PERMITS 963,000 745,224 815,730 724,367 (91,363) -11% TOTAL LICENSES & PERMITS 1,863,000 1,331,811 1,918,185 2,301,489 383,304 20% CHARGES FOR SERVICES PLANNING FEES 456,000 311,693 476,136 395,491 (80,645) -17% BUILDING DEPARTMENT FEES 895,317 626,907 604,745 750,031 145,286 24% ENGINEERING FEES 608,900 471,302 723,953 757,505 33,552 5% AMBULANCE FEES 3,850,000 2,596,243 2,309,838 3,917,891 1,608,053 70% RECREATION FEES 2,315,500 1,520,842 1,774,109 2,235,009 460,900 26% OTHER CHARGES OR FEES 1,504,300 1,114,380 1,266,043 993,975 (272,068) -21% TOTAL CHARGES FOR SERVICES 9,630,017 6,641,368 7,154,824 9,049,902 1,895,078 26% FINES AND FORFEITURES 210,750 155,453 252,963 301,440 48,477 19% INCOME FROM INVESTMENTS & PROPERTY 5,481,000 3,851,180 3,923,400 4,655,445 732,045 19% INTERDEPARTMENTAL CHARGES 5,236,449 3,858,705 3,916,308 4,368,935 452,627 12% OTHER REVENUE SOURCES 1,275,564 1,021,693 946,981 1,019,582 72,601 8% TRANSFERS IN 10,000 10,000 10,000 0 (10,000) -100% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $199,066,589 $131,779,919 137,425,224 $152,337,548 $14,912,324 10.9% (1) (1) Calculated General Fund revenues are 16% above estimates as of March 31, 2023. GENERAL FUNDREVENUE COMPARISON May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 20 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 6 Expenditures Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances through the month of March 2023 are $165.3 million, compared to $163.2 million at the same time last year. While the year-over-year change is $2.1 million or 1.3%, there are varying factors in how each of the respective years’ expenditure totals are derived. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2021-22, City Council authorized a $10.7 million transfer related to the Technology Investment Program in support of the Strategic Digital Transformation Investment Program, a $7.8 million transfer to the General Capital Construction Fund from fiscal year 2020-21 General Fund surplus, and a $5.5 million additional discretionary payment to CalPERS. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, City Council authorized a $10.2 million transfer to the city’s Workers’ Compensation Internal Service Fund, a $1 million transfer to the city’s Risk Management Internal Service Fund, and a $1.4 million to the city’s Fleet Maintenance Internal Service Fund. While surplus authorizations in accordance with City Council Policy Statement No. 87 were higher in fiscal year 2021-22 and resulted in additional expenditures through the first two quarters, the fiscal year 2022-23 adopted budget was $13.8 million or 7.5% greater than the previous year which contributed to comparable expenditure totals in both years. The remaining budget available through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, is $62.9 million, or 27.6%. If funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year, the General Fund would have 26.7% or $59.4 million available. Excluding transfers out, contingencies, and non-departmental charges, the percentage available on March 31, 2023, is 28.3%, slightly less than the 28.4% available on March 31, 2022. The adopted General Fund budget for fiscal year 2022-23 increased by 7.5% or $13.8 million when compared to last fiscal year due to: • Increased personnel costs (increase of $9.8 million): o $5.5 million in salaries and wages due to the addition of 24 new full-time positions and 3.4 full-time equivalent part-time positions. o $3.5 million in health insurance and retirement benefits costs o $0.8 million increase in other personnel costs (Medicare, unemployment and disability benefits) o ($2.0) million in vacancy savings. The fiscal year 2022-23 budget introduced a mechanism for accounting for vacancy savings at the beginning of the budget cycle rather than at the end. This mechanism (1) reduces the amount of budget in the General Fund, (2) closer alignment between budgeted and actual personnel costs, (3) increased alignment with the city’s 10-year forecast • Decreased maintenance and operations costs (decrease of $1.1 million): o Under the direction of the City Manager, departments were instructed to identify budgetary savings for fiscal year 2022-23 which resulted in a $1.5 million reduction in base operating costs. • $6.5 million increase in transfers. This increase was a result of a temporary reduction in capital project transfers in fiscal year 2021-22 as a result of COVID-19 and its anticipated adverse fiscal impacts. CalPERS and pension funding has been and will continue to be a challenge for participating agencies. CalPERS administers the city’s defined benefit pension plan and costs have been increasing in past years as CalPERS addresses a structural shortfall in plan assets to cover unfunded liabilities. In support of CalPERS strategies for plan sustainability and as part of the city’s strategic, long-term approach to financial management, the city actively manages its unfunded pension liability. Since fiscal year 2016-17, the City Council has approved additional discretionary payments of $56.4 million to decrease future costs of the city’s unfunded actuarial liability and strive to achieve a funded status of 80% in accordance with City Council Policy Statement No. 86. CalPERS latest actuarial valuation report (as of June 30, 2021), the city had a combined pension funded status of 86% which was predominantly driven by CalPERS’ fiscal year 2020-21 investment return of 21.3%. This positive return will not impact the city’s required contributions until fiscal year 2023-24. CalPERS recently announced preliminary net investment return of -6.1% for fiscal year 2021-22 which will significantly reduce the city’s total funded status and have a tremendous impact on the city’s future costs. This negative return will not impact the May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 21 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 7 city’s required contributions until fiscal year 2024-25. Staff will continue to monitor CalPERS’ strategies and performance and report to City Council as necessary and appropriate. The city will continue monitoring spending and intends to return to the City Council in early 2023 with a midyear review of the General Fund’s budget. Staff plans to propose adjustments to current year revenue forecasts and may propose expenditure adjustments in line with the city’s evolving economic situation. A detailed schedule of General Fund expenditures is provided below. ADOPTED WORKING BUDGET BUDGET AMOUNT AVAILABLE % DEPARTMENT DESCRIPTION FY 2022-23 FY 2022-23 (a)COMMITTED (b)BALANCE AVAILABLE (c) POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP CITY ATTORNEY $2,033,508 $2,103,944 $1,416,806 $687,138 32.7% CITY CLERK SERVICES 1,394,162 1,450,310 852,767 597,543 41.2% CITY COUNCIL 652,220 653,264 431,652 221,612 33.9% CITY MANAGER 2,156,145 2,332,291 1,627,842 704,449 30.2%CITY TREASURER 249,945 214,664 93,212 121,452 56.6% COMMUNICATIONS & ENGAGEMENT 1,979,186 2,601,885 2,028,208 573,677 22.0% TOTAL POLICY AND LEADERSHIP GROUP 8,465,166 9,356,358 6,450,487 2,905,871 31.1% ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 747,797 756,348 536,790 219,558 29.0% FINANCE 5,472,176 6,035,401 4,204,987 1,830,414 30.3% HUMAN RESOURCES 5,264,775 5,329,529 3,638,663 1,690,866 31.7% INNOVATION & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2,585,951 2,653,533 1,732,603 920,930 34.7% TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES 14,070,699 14,774,811 10,113,043 4,661,768 31.6% PUBLIC SAFETY POLICE 51,240,884 56,662,946 41,290,823 15,372,123 27.1% FIRE 37,756,943 39,502,653 27,426,349 12,076,304 30.6% TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY 88,997,827 96,165,599 68,717,172 27,448,427 28.5% COMMUNITY SERVICES COMMUNITY SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 675,917 842,700 641,077 201,623 23.9% COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 10,384,700 12,754,845 8,992,864 3,761,981 29.5% HOUSING & HOMELESS SERVICES 3,134,115 3,838,192 2,936,682 901,510 23.5% LIBRARY & CULTURAL ARTS 14,088,425 14,422,200 9,873,525 4,548,675 31.5% PARKS & RECREATION 21,167,014 22,026,639 16,417,954 5,608,685 25.5% TOTAL COMMUNITY SERVICES 49,450,171 53,884,576 38,862,102 15,022,474 27.9% PUBLIC WORKS PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION 1,440,649 1,508,318 1,043,202 465,116 30.8% CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT & INSPECTIONS 3,262,768 3,511,909 2,358,527 1,153,382 32.8% ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 1,159,789 1,639,413 1,175,334 464,079 28.3% FACILITIES 6,768,736 8,366,112 6,356,886 2,009,226 24.0% TRANSPORTATION 9,707,559 11,259,626 8,657,802 2,601,824 23.1% TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS 22,339,501 26,285,378 19,591,751 6,693,627 25.5% NON-DEPARTMENTAL & CONTINGENCY (d)OTHER NON-DEPARTMENTAL 1,021,658 3,019,456 759,871 2,259,585 74.8% OPERATING TRANSFERS OUT 13,600,000 24,208,252 20,808,267 3,399,985 14.0% CONTINGENCY 500,000 492,224 0 492,224 100.0% TOTAL NON-DEPT & CONTINGENCY 15,121,658 27,719,932 21,568,138 6,151,794 22.2% TOTAL GENERAL FUND $198,445,022 $228,186,654 $165,302,693 $62,883,961 27.6% (a) Working budget includes the adopted budget, open encumbrances from the end of the prior fiscal year, approved carry forwards of the prior fiscal year and all other council approvals. (b) Actual expenditures on a budgetary basis include encumbrances and exclude non-budgeted items. (c) Amount available would be 26.7% if funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year. (d) Other non-departmental includes property tax administration fees, assessment district administration, citywide litigation expenses, and other items not attributed to a specific department. AS OF 03/31/2023 EXPENDITURE STATUS BY DEPARTMENTGENERAL FUND May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 22 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 8 Council Contingency The City Council has allocated $500,000 out of the General Fund budget for unanticipated emergencies or unforeseen program needs. Below is a listing of the City Council’s contingency: Donations Carlsbad Municipal Code 2.08.100 authorizes the city manager to accept donations on behalf of the city in an amount or of value of up to $5,000 per donation. These donations shall be used in accordance with the donor’s intent or added to the city’s contingency account. Below is a listing of all donations, that have been accepted during fiscal year 2022-23: CONTINGENCY ACCOUNT USE OF FUNDS RESOLUTION EXPLANATION AMOUNT DATE NUMBER ADOPTED BUDGET $500,000 USES: Community Spirit Grant - Carlsbad Educational Foundation-Razorback Invitational (1,915) 8/8/2022 NA - See Note 1 Community Spirit Grant - Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce - Older & Bolder Expo (5,000) 8/8/2022 NA - See Note 1 Community Spirit Grant - Carlsbad High School - Lancer Day Parade (861) 10/27/2022 NA - See Note 1 TOTAL USES (7,776) AVAILABLE BALANCE $492,224 Note 1 - City Council Policy 51 gives authorization to the City Manager, or designee, to approve Winning Teams and Community Spirit Grants up to $5,000 per grant. Department Intention Qtr. 1 Qtr. 2 Jan.Feb Mar Qtr. 3 Total Parks & Recreation Leo Carrillo Ranch Cash Donations $6,166 $1,329 $263 $357 $5,474 $6,094 $13,589 Parks & Recreation Opportunity Grant Donations 3,253 2,207 473 1,200 1,796 3,469 8,929 Parks & Recreation Senior Center Cash Donations 1,894 1,962 1,145 707 223 2,075 5,931 Parks & Recreation Senior Meals Cash Donations 3,392 4,380 1,682 2,138 1,711 5,531 13,303 Parks & Recreation Senior Transportation Cash Donations 375 353 160 184 177 521 1,249 Parks & Recreation Special Events Cash Donations 1,000 0 0 2 0 2 1,002 Parks & Recreation Teen Programs 0 0 0 2,266 0 2,266 2,266 Parks & Recreation Tree San Diego planting event (Stagecoach)0 4,900 0 0 0 0 4,900 Subtotal - Parks & Recreation $16,080 $15,131 $3,723 $6,854 $9,381 $19,958 $51,169 Library & Cultural Arts Book Purchases $5,150 $150 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,300 Library & Cultural Arts Genealogy Program 0 3,039 3,035 0 0 3,035 6,074 Library & Cultural Arts Films in Schulman Auditorium 0 1,050 0 0 0 0 1,050 Library & Cultural Arts Support Library Programs and Services 148 2,007 1,000 1 0 1,001 3,156 Subtotal - Library & Cultural Arts $5,298 $6,246 $4,035 $1 $0 $4,036 $15,580 Fire Food gifts for crews $0 $417 $0 $50 $0 $50 $467 Subtotal - Fire $0 $417 $0 $50 $0 $50 $467 Total Donations $21,378 $21,794 $7,758 $6,905 $9,381 $24,044 $67,216 Donations Fiscal Year 2022 - 23 May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 23 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 9 Water Enterprise Revenues • Decrease in water operating revenues due to 4.62% decrease in water volume sales, offset by increase in user rates in January 2023. • Interest earnings increased due to a 53.6% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio combined with an 8.5% increase in the monthly average cash balance. • The increase in property taxes is primarily due to increase in assesed property values. • The increase in fines is due to reinstatement of customer late charges starting in January 2022. • Decrease in other revenues was due to a prior year receipt of $1.4 million for the Carlsbad Municipal Water District’s share of damages awarded for rates that were unlawfully assessed to the city between 2011 and 2014, and a transfer in of $1.1 million from other city funds due to a consolidation of the city’s CalPERS post retirement benefit plans. Expenses • The increase in staffing expenses includes salary increases and vacancies experienced in prior fiscal year offset by an annual required contribution to the city’s unfunded pension liability balance with CalPERS. • Higher interdepartmental expenses resulted from increased personnel related costs, and general liability insurance. • Purchased water expenses have decreased from the prior year due to a 7.7% rate increase in the variable cost of water purchased from the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) offset by a 7.9% decrease in the amount of water purchased. • Miscellaneous expenses increased from timing of purchase of replacement meters. • Captial outlay increased due to additional fleet vehicle purchase. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD (*) YTD (*)YTD 2021-22 TO PERCENT FY 2022-23 3/31/2022 3/31/2023 YTD 2022-23 CHANGE REVENUES: WATER DELIVERY 41,300,000$ 30,322,078$ 29,881,589$ (440,489)$ -1.5% INTEREST 354,500 259,028 393,020 133,992 51.7% MISC. SERVICE CHARGES 321,000 210,981 212,396 1,415 0.7% PROPERTY TAXES 4,441,344 2,916,091 3,138,013 221,922 7.6% FINES, FORFEITURES & PENALTIES 161,750 93,895 283,142 189,247 201.6% OTHER REVENUES 411,544 2,680,209 383,125 (2,297,084) -85.7% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 46,990,138 36,482,282 34,291,285 (2,190,997) -6.0% EXPENSES: STAFFING 4,301,517 2,987,396 3,138,681 151,285 5.1% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 3,161,356 2,207,606 2,371,338 163,732 7.4% PURCHASED WATER 27,300,000 18,754,280 18,674,264 (80,016) -0.4% MWD/CWA FIXED CHARGES 6,885,000 5,042,759 5,098,290 55,531 1.1% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 2,411,554 625,643 619,764 (5,879) -0.9% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 5,000,000 3,375,000 3,749,999 374,999 11.1% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 1,106,939 493,862 641,638 147,776 29.9% CAPITAL OUTLAY 77,088 16,958 32,776 15,818 93.3% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 50,243,454 33,503,504 34,326,751 823,246 2.5% OPERATING INCOME/(LOSS)(3,253,316)$ 2,978,778$ (35,466)$ (3,014,243)$ -101.2% (*) Adjusted to reflect timing differences for water purchases and depreciation. WATER OPERATIONS FUND March 31, 2023 2.5% 6.0% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 24 of 25 Quarterly Financial Report _______________________________________________________________ 10 Wastewater Enterprise Revenues • Charges for current services are higher than in the prior year due primarily to a 20% rate increase that went into effect January 2023. • Interest earnings increased due to a 53.6% increase in the yield of the Treasurer’s portfolio combined with a 7.8% increase in the monthly average cash balance. • The increase in other revenues is due to customer late charges resuming after the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2022 and reimbursement for interdepartmental labor charges. Expenses • The increase in staffing expenses is driven by salary increases offset by annual required contribution to the city’s unfunded pension liability balance with CalPERS. • Higher interdepartmental expenses resulted from increased personnel related costs, and general liability insurance. • Higher miscellaneous expenses from purchase of parts. • The capital outlay in fiscal year 2021-22 was for the procurement of a utility truck. CHANGE FROM BUDGET YTD* YTD*YTD 2021-22 TO PERCENT FY 2022-23 3/31/2022 3/31/2023 YTD 2022-23 CHANGE REVENUES: CHARGES FOR CURRENT SERVICES 19,000,000 11,330,025 13,953,238 2,623,213 23.2% INTEREST 95,000 74,094 107,439 33,345 45.0% OTHER REVENUES 181,500 106,914 280,600 173,686 162.5% TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 19,276,500 11,511,033 14,341,277 2,830,244 24.6% EXPENSES: STAFFING 2,971,244 1,926,466 1,997,038 70,572 3.7% INTERDEPARTMENTAL SERVICES 1,519,845 1,007,995 1,133,334 125,339 12.4% ENCINA PLANT SERVICES 4,665,000 5,427,201 4,423,161 (1,004,040) -18.5% OUTSIDE SERVICES/MAINTENANCE 1,825,185 256,096 291,529 35,433 13.8% DEPRECIATION/REPLACEMENT 5,300,000 3,975,000 3,974,999 (1)0.0% MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES 1,158,133 427,250 507,183 79,933 18.7% CAPITAL OUTLAY 9,750 46,811 0 (46,811) -100.0% TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 17,449,157 13,066,819 12,327,244 (739,575) -5.7% OPERATING INCOME/LOSS 1,827,343 (1,555,786) 2,014,033 3,569,819 -229.5% (*) Adjusted to reflect timing differences for Encina quarterly invoices and depreciation. WASTEWATER OPERATIONS FUND March 31, 2023 24.6% 5.7% May 16, 2023 Item #8 Page 25 of 25 Matt Sanford, Economic Development Manager Zach Korach, Finance Director May 16, 2023 Economic and Financial Update: Q3 FY 2022-23 {city of Carlsbad TODAY’S PRESENTATION •Economic update •Financial update ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE {city of Carlsbad ECONOMIC UPDATE 3 •Timeframe analyzed o Third quarter FY2022-2023 (January –March 2023) •Macro Trends •Local Impact ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE {city of Carlsbad EVOLVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS •Macro-disruptions continue to affect Carlsbad businesses o Inflation o Higher cost of capital o Tight labor market ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE {city of Carlsbad INFLATION CONCERNS •Cost increases continue to drive concern for businesses and consumers •San Diego area prices are up 1% over the past two months •Over-the-year prices are up 5.3% ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Chart 1. Over-the-year percent change in CPI-U, San Diego-Carlsbad, CA, March 2020-March 2023 Percent change 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -Alllems All lems less food and energy Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. {city of Carlsbad 6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Real GDP. Percent change, fr,om preceding ,qiua1rte,r 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Q2 Q3 2021 11..J • .Sm B u r-eau of Eoon orn ic A n alysis Q4 Q1 Q2 2022 Q3 .Seasc:rn1ally adj us1t,ed annual irates CARLSBAD ECONOMY •Carlsbad GRP for 2022 was $15.8 Billion •Economy grew by more than $1 Billion compared to 2021 •Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, Accommodation & Food Service, and Professional Scientific & Technical Services saw largest increases ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE {city of Carlsbad CARLSBAD ECONOMY ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Top Five Industry Expansions -2021 Top Five Industries Contractions -2021 Machinery Manufacturing $170,356,513 $166,897,336 -$3,459,177 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, & Component Mfg.$41,709,816 $39,306,251 -$2,403,565 Broadcasting (except Internet)$30,930,544 $28,703,260 -$2,227,284 Telecommunications $67,502,217 $66,522,186 -$980,030 Pipeline Transportation $8,267,344 $7,567,474 -$699,870 Management of Companies and Enterprises $1,387,807,048 $1,562,456,261 $174,649,212 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $1,863,945,969 $2,020,184,103 $156,238,134 Chemical Manufacturing $643,685,714 $798,069,390 $154,383,676 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods $529,860,193 $628,281,781 $98,421,588 Administrative and Support Services $309,018,816 $374,945,699 $65,926,883 Industry 2020 Earnings 2021 Earnings Change Industry 2020 Earnings 2021 Earnings Change WORKER/TALENT SHORTAGE •EDD March unemployment data o California unemployment rate: 4.8%, (.7% increase) o County unemployment rate: 3.7%, (.8% increase) o Carlsbad unemployment rate: 3.5%, (.9% increase) ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Unemployment Rate Comparison 2022 Carlsbad San Diego County North County Avg w/o Carlsbad California {city of Carlsbad CARLSBAD JOBS •January through March saw 12,258 unique job postings •Third consecutive quarterly decrease in job postings •Average salary for posted jobs was $51,100, an increase of $5,000 over last quarter ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE CARLSBAD TOURISM •Group and conference travel recovering but still uncertain •“Revenge travel” that fueled 2022 recovery could slow ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avgerage Daily Rate 2023 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hotel Occupancy 2023 City of Carlsbad San Diego County, CA City of Oceanside, CA City of Newport Beach, CA --- ,< ------- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE •Vacancy rate for industrial properties is 3.6% •Vacancy rate for office properties is 12.6% •Vacancy rate for retail properties is 5.8% ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Carlsbad Commercial Vacancy Rates Carlsbad Retail Carlsbad Office Carlsbad Industrial RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE •Median home values ended the quarter at $1.34 million •The demand for housing remains strong and supply remains constrained. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Carlsbad Median Home Price Jan 2019 - Present NEW DEVELOPMENT & BUSINESS ACTIVITY •Business licenses issued was strongest in two years •Home builder optimism is rising, but costs are a challenge •Commercial development continues to slow ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Business Licenses Issued by Quarter Non-Residential Residential Outside City Total 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Re s i d e n t i a l 2020 2021 2022 2023 Building Permits Issued Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 • ---- ■ ■ ■ ■ KEY TAKEAWAYS •We are likely to see a softening in the economy •Prices may be stabilizing but inflation is still a concern •The unemployment rate will likely increase slightly as the economy moderates •The job-to-labor ratio remains extremely tight, causing wages to rise •The slowing in commercial real estate development is likely to continue ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE GENERAL FUND REVENUES (first through third quarter of fiscal year) $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 Property tax Sales tax Transient occupancy tax ■ FY 2021-22 ■ FY 2022-23 Expected ■ FY 2022-23 Actual I l l ■■■ •-■ Other taxes Income from inv. Development Other revenues and prop. related revenue GENERAL FUND REVENUES Revenue category Actual FY 2021-22 Actual FY 2022-23 $ difference % difference Property tax $48.6 $52.7 $4.1 8% Sales tax 38.8 42.3 3.5 9% Transient occupancy tax 22.1 26.5 4.4 20% Other taxes 8.7 8.3 -0.4 -5% Income from inv. and property 3.9 4.6 0.7 19% Development related revenue 2.9 3.5 0.6 20% Other revenues 12.4 14.4 2.0 16% Total $137.4 $152.3 $14.9 11% (in millions, first through third quarter of fiscal year) [----====----] Revenue category Expected FY 2022-23 Actual FY 2022-23 $ difference % difference Property tax $49.5 $52.7 $3.2 6% Sales tax 37.2 42.3 5.1 14% Transient occupancy tax 19.7 26.5 6.8 35% Other taxes 8.2 8.3 0.1 1% Income from inv. and property 3.9 4.6 0.7 21% Development related revenue 2.0 3.5 1.5 74% Other revenues 11.3 14.4 3.1 27% Total $131.8 $152.3 $20.5 16% GENERAL FUND REVENUES (in millions, first through third quarter of fiscal year) GENERAL FUND BUDGET ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE •Adopted budget of $198.4 million •Working budget of $228.2 million •Available budget remaining of $62.9 million, or 27% •Includes actual expenditures through March 31 •Includes open purchase order commitments {city of Carlsbad GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES & ENCUMBRANCES 20 (first through third quarter of fiscal year) $140,000,000 ■ FY 2022-23 Budget $120,000,000 ■ Q3 FY 2021-22 Actual ■ Q3 FY 2022-23 Actual $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 Personnel Maintenance & operations Transfers out Other GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES & ENCUMBRANCES (in millions, first through third quarter of fiscal year) Category Budget FY 2022-23 QTR 3 EXP FY 2021-22 QTR 3 EXP FY 2022-23 % of Budget Spent to Date Personnel $124.3 $85.7 $87.9 71% Maintenance & operations 72.1 51.0 51.9 72% Transfers out 24.2 25.0 20.8 86% Capital outlay 7.1 1.5 4.7 65% Contingency 0.5 0.0 0.0 0% Total $228.2 $163.2 $165.3 72% GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (in millions, first through third quarter of fiscal year) Category Budget FY 2022-23 QTR 3 EXP FY 2022-23 % of Budget Spent to Date OPEN POs at 03/31/23 Personnel $124.3 $87.9 71%$0.0 Maintenance & operations 72.1 40.2 56%11.7 Transfers out 24.2 20.8 86%0.0 Capital outlay 7.1 1.3 18%3.4 Contingency 0.5 0.0 0%0.0 Total $228.2 $150.2 66%$15.1 WATER AND WASTEWATER ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE Compared to prior year through third quarter: •Water operating revenues are down 6% and expenses are up 2.5% •Wastewater operating revenues are up 24.6% and expenses are down 5.7% {city of Carlsbad GOLF COURSE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE •Net income $241,000 higher than last year •Driven by increases in private events and food & beverage sales, offset by a slight decrease in golf revenues (more rainy days this year) {city of Carlsbad NEXT STEPS •Monitor revenues and expenditures •Publish economic and financial status reports: carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness carlsbadca.gov/departments/finance/financial-reports •Return May 23, 2023 for FY 2023-24 Preliminary Budget •Return in September 2023 for FY 2023-24 Year-end and Carryforward Report ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL UPDATE {city of Carlsbad