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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-06-25; City Council; ; Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring ReportMeeting Date: June 25, 2024 To: Mayor and City Council From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager Staff Contact: Jennifer Jesser, Senior Planner jennifer.jesser@carlsbadca.gov, 442-339-2637 Subject: Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report Districts: All Recommended Action 1.Hold a public hearing; and 2.Adopt a resolution accepting the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report and finding that it satisfies the city’s monitoring requirements. Executive Summary The city’s Growth Management Program has guided the growth of Carlsbad since the 1980s. This report on the city’s Growth Management Program is presented to the City Council each year in accordance with Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.90 - Growth Management, subsection 130(d). The report includes the status of development activity, the adequacy of public facilities and public facility financing. This year’s report shows that all public facilities identified in the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report meet the required facility performance standards for FY 2022-23. Regarding the Circulation performance standard, the report includes the status of the vehicle mode of travel. The status of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes will be reported separately. Exhibit 1 is a resolution accepting the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report and finding that it satisfies the city monitoring requirements, as established in Section 21.90.130(d). The monitoring report is included as Attachment A to Exhibit 1. Explanation & Analysis Background The City Council approved an ordinance in 1986 that established a growth management program with a requirement that new development construct and pay for the public facilities needed to serve the development. Developers either build the improvements themselves or pay fees to the city so the city can construct the facilities. Carlsbad voters affirmed the general principles of Carlsbad’s Growth Management Program when they passed Proposition E in November 1986. Proposition E also established limits, or caps, on the number of homes in the city. However, as described in the monitoring report, state housing laws preempt the city’s ability to require compliance with the housing caps. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 1 of 44 CA Review AF Also in 1986, the City Council approved a Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan that included performance standards for the following eleven public facilities: These performance standards are applied citywide, by city quadrant, by local facility management zone or by project site, depending on the facility. New development must comply with the public facility performance standards. FY 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report (Exhibit 1, Attachment A) The report includes: •An analysis of the public facility performance standards, including the current status of each facility and the projected status for when the community is built out (i.e., fully developed). This analysis shows: o All public facilities identified in the report met the required performance standards during fiscal year 2022-23. The report also identifies that when the city is built out, additional facilities will be needed to meet the standard for libraries, drainage, open space, sewer collection and water distribution. o The status of the circulation performance standard shows the vehicle mode of travel meets the performance standard, except where streets have been exempted from the standard. The status of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes will be reported separately. •A summary of development activity during the reporting period: o Building permits were issued for 276 new dwelling units (194 primary dwelling units and 82 accessory dwelling units). o Building permits were issued for 290,988 square feet of new non-residential space. •An updated resident population and existing dwelling unit inventory. o The total existing dwelling units in Carlsbad, as of June 30, 2023, is 47,629 and the existing population estimate is 117,107. •An analysis of the Proposition E residential dwelling unit caps. o As described in the report, state housing laws preempt the city’s ability to require compliance with the Proposition E dwelling unit caps. The report analyzes the Proposition E dwelling unit caps for reference purposes only and shows that the existing and planned unbuilt dwellings during fiscal year 2022-23 remained below the dwelling unit caps. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 2 of 44 Carlsbad Tomorrow Growth Management Citizens Committee To address state housing laws and evaluate other issues affecting Carlsbad’s growth, the City Council established a goal in fiscal year 2021-2022 to “engage the community through a citizens committee to create a new plan to manage growth in Carlsbad in a way that maintains an excellent quality of life.” The City Council approved the formation of the Carlsbad Tomorrow: Growth Management Citizens Committee on March 8, 2022. The committee met from March 2022-April 2023 to review and identify key elements of a new plan to manage growth in a way that maintains excellent quality of life and ensures compliance with state laws. The committee’s recommendations are provided in a report titled “Carlsbad Tomorrow: Growth Management Citizens Committee Final Report April 2023.” The report was presented to the City Council on July 18, 2023, at which time the City Council directed staff to return in 2024, three months after the adoption of the General Plan’s Housing Element rezoning program, with a work plan for next steps to implement the committee’s recommendations. The Housing Element, the part of the General Plan that covers housing, was adopted on Jan. 30, 2024. A City Council memorandum (Exhibit 2) updated the City Council on the next steps to update the program, and a report on the subject will be presented to the City Council before its August recess. Changes to the Growth Management Program to implement the committee’s recommendations are awaiting City Council approval, so the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report provides information on the city’s progress in implementing the current Growth Management Program.1 Fiscal Analysis There is no fiscal impact associated with this action. Next Steps The Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report will be kept on file and posted on the city’s website. Environmental Evaluation This action does not require environmental review because it does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment. Exhibits 1.City Council resolution 2.City Council memorandum, dated April 18, 2024 (on file in the Office of the City Clerk) 1 More information about the committee’s work and a link to the committee’s report can be found at carlsbadca.gov/city-hall/meetings-agendas/boards-commissions/growth-management-committee June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 3 of 44 RESOLUTION NO. 2024-164 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, ACCEPTING THE FISCAL YEAR 2022-23 GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM MONITORING REPORT AND FINDING THAT IT SATISFIES THE CITY'S MONITORING REQUIREMENTS WHEREAS, in 1986, the Carlsbad City Council adopted the Growth Management Program to ensure that adequate public facilities are provided concurrent with growth; and WHEREAS the Growth Management Program is implemented through Carlsbad Municipal Code Chapter 21.90 and the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan; and WHEREAS Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.90.130(d) requires the City Planner to provide to the City Council an annual Growth Management Program monitoring report that includes information on development activity, public facilities and improvements, and public facility financing; and WHEREAS the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report (Attachment A) addresses the status of all public facility performance standards, except the status of the Circulation performance standard for the pedestrian, bicycle, and transit travel modes, which will be reported separately. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows: 1.That the above recitations are true and correct. 2.That the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report satisfies Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.90.130(d) by providing information to the City Council regarding the status of the Carlsbad Growth Management Program for the fiscal year covering July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023, except for the status of the Circulation performance standard for the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes, which will be reported separately. 3.That the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report (Attachment A) is accepted, and the City Planner shall file the report and post it to the city website. June 25, 2024 Item #10#10 Page 4 of 44 Exhibit 1 PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 25th day of June, 2024, by the following vote, to wit: AYES: NAYS: ABSTAIN: ABSENT: BLACKBURN, BHAT-PATEL, ACOSTA, BURKHOLDER, LUNA. NONE. NONE. NONE. KEITH BLACKBURN, Mayor u� t 1ri zn:,,b-- �HERRY FREISINGER, City Clerk (SEAL) June 25, 2024 Item #10#10 Page 5 of 44 CITY OF CARLSBAD Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report July 1, 2022 through June 30, 2023 Carlsbad City Council Mayor Keith Blackburn Mayor Pro Tem Priya Bhat-Patel, District 3 Council Member Melanie Burkholder, District 1 Council Member Carolyn Luna, District 2 Council Member Teresa Acosta, District 4 February 2024 Report prepared in cooperation with the following City of Carlsbad district and departments: Carlsbad Municipal Water District Community Development Community Services Fire Library & Cultural Arts Parks & Recreation Public Works June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 6 of 44 Attachment A Introduction This Growth Management Program Monitoring report for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 (July 1, 2022 – June 30, 2023), is provided in accordance with Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.90.130(d), which requires the preparation of an annual monitoring report on the Growth Management Program. GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM OVERVIEW The principle behind the Growth Management Program is to ensure that new development and growth does not outpace the performance standards established for public facilities such as circulation facilities, libraries, parks, open space, and facilities to provide water and sewer services. The City of Carlsbad's Growth Management Program was created in 1986 and is comprised of: • The Growth Management Ordinance (Carlsbad Municipal Code Chapter 21.90); • The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan; and • Proposition E, passed by voters in November 1986, established a cap on the number of residential dwelling units in the city. The dwelling unit cap is no longer enforceable due to state law (see “Impacts of State Law”, below). • Local Facility Management Plans for 25 local facility management plans The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan specifies the performance standards for 11 public facilities, as listed in Table 1. To ensure that the public facility performance standards could be achieved, the Growth Management Program directed the development of financing and management plans describing how/when the public facilities would be developed. The subsections below provide additional information. CARLSBAD TOMORROW: GROWTH MANAGEMENT CITIZENS COMMITTEE The city’s Growth Management Program was created in the 1980s and is largely credited with maintaining the city’s excellent quality of life, well-planned infrastructure, and financial health over the past 35+ years. However, in recent years, state laws have suspended the ability of cities to establish or implement any provision that limits housing development or population (see “Impacts of State Law”, below). To address state housing laws and evaluate the issues affecting Carlsbad’s growth, the City Council established a goal (fiscal year 2021-2022) to “engage the community through a citizens committee to create a new plan to manage growth in Carlsbad in a way that maintains an excellent quality of life.” The City Council approved the formation of the Carlsbad Tomorrow: Growth Management Citizens Committee on March 8, 2022. The committee met from March 2022 – April 2023 to review and identify key elements of a new plan to manage growth in a way that maintains excellent quality of life and ensures compliance with state laws. The committee’s recommendations are provided in a report titled “Carlsbad Tomorrow: Growth Management Citizens Committee Final Report April 2023.” The report was presented to the City Council on July 18, 2023, at which time the council directed staff to return in 2024 with a work plan to implement the committee’s recommendations. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 7 of 44 While changes to the Growth Management Program to implement the committee’s recommendations are pending City Council action, this report provides information on the city’s progress in 2022-2023 in implementing the existing Growth Management Program. Table 1: Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan Public Facility Performance Standards Public Facility Performance Standard Status on Page City Administrative Facilities1 1,500 sq. ft. per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. 11 Library1 800 sq. ft. (of library space) per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. 13 Wastewater Treatment Sewer plant capacity is adequate for at least a five-year period. 14 Parks1 3.0 acres of Community Park or Special Use Area per 1,000 population within the Park District must be scheduled for construction within a five- year period beginning at the time the need is first identified. The five-year period shall not commence prior to August 22, 2017. 15 Drainage Drainage facilities must be provided as required by the city concurrent with development. 17 Circulation Implement a comprehensive livable streets network that serves all users of the system – vehicles, pedestrians, bicycles, and public transit. Maintain LOS D or better for all modes that are subject to this multi- modal level of service (MMLOS) standard, as identified in Table 3-1 of the General Plan Mobility Element, excluding LOS exempt intersections and streets approved by the City Council. 18 Fire No more than 1,500 dwelling units outside of a five-minute response time. 27 Open Space2 Fifteen percent of the total land area in the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land must be set aside for permanent open space and must be available concurrent with development. 28 Schools2 School capacity to meet projected enrollment within the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) as determined by the appropriate school district must be provided prior to projected occupancy. 33 Sewer Collection System Trunk-line capacity to meet demand, as determined by the appropriate sewer districts, must be provided concurrent with development. 34 Water Distribution System Line capacity to meet demand as determined by the appropriate water district must be provided concurrent with development. A minimum of 10-day average storage capacity must be provided prior to any development. 36 1 The performance standards for city administrative facilities, library facilities, and parks are stated in terms of population, which is discussed in the subsection below entitled “Population.” 2 The performance standards for open space and schools are based on a “Local Facility Management Zone,” which is discussed in the subsection below entitled “Facility and Improvement Plans.” June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 8 of 44 Figure 1 LOCAL FACILITY AND IMPROVEMENT PLANS To develop a road map for how the above standards could be met, a Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan was created in 1986 that detailed how compliance with the performance standards will be achieved, how the necessary public facilities will be provided, and what financing mechanisms will be used for the facilities. Because planned development and growth varies throughout the city and at different levels, Carlsbad is divided into twenty-five local facilities management zones (Figure 1). Each Local Facility Management Zone has an adopted Local Facilities Management Plan. Consistent with the Growth Management Program and the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan, each Local Facility Management Plan must describe how the Local Facility Management Zone will be developed, how the required public facilities will be provided, and how those facilities will be funded. FAILURE TO MEET A PERFORMANCE STANDARD The Growth Management Ordinance, Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.90.080, states: “If at any time after preparation of a local facilities management plan the performance standards established by a plan are not met then no development permits or building permits shall be issued within the [affected] local zone until the performance standard is met or arrangements satisfactory to the city council guaranteeing the facilities and improvements have been made.” As described in the following subsection, the city’s ability to stop development due to lack of compliance with a growth management performance standard has been largely preempted by recent state law. IMPACTS OF STATE LAW According to the Growth Management Program, development activity cannot proceed if either the residential growth caps or public facility performance standards are not met. However, updates to state law and the city’s Housing Element have modified these components of the Growth Management Program. In 2017 the California Legislature passed SB 166, known as the No Net Loss Law, which requires local jurisdictions to ensure that their housing element inventories can accommodate, at all times throughout the planning period, their remaining unmet share of the regional housing need. The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) has taken the following positions with respect to Carlsbad: that failure to meet the GMP performance standards cannot be used as a basis for implementing a moratorium that precludes meeting Carlsbad’s share of the regional housing need, and that the GMP residential unit caps could not prevent the city from achieving consistency with the Housing Element inventory and SB 166. In 2019, the legislature passed SB 330, the Housing Crisis Act of 2019, which prohibits local jurisdictions from imposing moratoriums on housing development and using residential housing caps or other limits to regulate the number of housing units built within a jurisdiction. As noted in the City’s May 5, 2020, staff report, Item 12,3 Senate Bill 166 of 2017 states that “Each city, county, or city and county shall ensure that its housing element inventory… can accommodate, at all times 3 City Council May 5, 2020 Staff Report, Item 12 available at: https://carlsbadca.swagit.com/play/05052020-1021#full-agenda June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 9 of 44 throughout the planning period, its remaining unmet share of the regional housing need allocated pursuant to Section 65584.” Furthermore, where housing is an allowable use, Senate Bill 330 (2019)] prohibits a city from enacting a “development policy, standard or condition” that would have the effect of “imposing a moratorium or similar restriction or limitation on housing development ... other than to specifically protect against an imminent threat to the health and safety of persons residing in, or within the immediate vicinity of, the area subject to the moratorium...” The following state laws limit the city’s ability to stop development: • Senate Bill 166 (2017) states that “Each city, county, or city and county shall ensure that its housing element inventory… can accommodate, at all times throughout the planning period, its remaining unmet share of the regional housing need allocated pursuant to Section 65584.” The California Department of Housing and Community Development has taken the position that exceedances of the city’s growth management standards cannot constitute a basis for implementing a moratorium that precludes attainment of the city’s regional housing need allocation. • Senate Bill 330 (2019) prohibits a city from enacting a “development policy, standard or condition” that would have the effect of “imposing a moratorium or similar restriction or limitation on housing development ... other than to specifically protect against an imminent threat to the health and safety of persons residing in, or within the immediate vicinity of, the area subject to the moratorium...” On April 17, 2020, the city received an opinion from the California Department of Housing and Community Development, which states in part that a "housing moratorium adopted pursuant to the City's [Growth Management Program] would be impermissible under Government Code section 66300 [Senate Bill 330].” On April 17, 2020, the city received an opinion from the California Department of Housing and Community Development regarding the city’s ability to implement a moratorium under the City's Growth Management Plan where vehicular deficiencies exist (CMC §§ 21.90.080 and 21.90.130) in light of SB 330. The department’s opinion concludes that "the housing moratorium adopted pursuant to the city’s GMP would be impermissible under Government Code section 66300.” “HCD does not consider, however, that general concerns about the health and welfare of the citizenry-including traffic conditions that cause minor delays-present an imminent threat to health and safety.” In City Council Resolutions No. 2020-104, No 2020-105, No 2020-106, No 2020-208, the City Council similarly concluded that “The City finds that Gov. Code § 65863(a) (SB 166 [2017]) and Gov. Code, § 66300(b)(1)(B)(i) (SB 330 [2019]) preempt the City from implementing a moratorium pursuant to Carlsbad Municipal Code §§ 21.90.080 and 21.90.130 and [Growth Management Program] regulations.” The city also reached similar conclusions with the adoption of its Housing Element in April 2021 (Resolution No. 2021-074.). That resolution states “Consistent with Updated Housing Element Program 2.2, the City Council finds that Government Code Sections 65583(a)(3) and 65863(a) (SB 166 [2017]) and Government Code Section 66300(b)(1)(D) (SB 330 [2019]) preempt the city from implementing residential growth management plan caps, residential quadrant limits, and residential control points. Consequently, the City finds that it cannot and will not enforce these residential caps, quadrant limits, and control points, including but not limited to those contained in the General Plan (including, but not limited to the Land Use and Community Design Element Table 2-3, Section 2.6, Policy 2-P.8(a) and (b), Policy 2- P.16(d), and Policy 2-P.57), Growth Management Plan (Proposition E); City Council Policy Statement No. 43, Carlsbad Municipal Code Chapter 21.90 including but not limited to CMC §§ 21.90.030 (b), 21.90.045 and 21.90.185.” June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 10 of 44 SUMMARY STATUS OF PUBLIC FACILITY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS As further detailed in this report and summarized in Table 2, during FY 2022-23 the city met the Growth Management Program performance standards for the 11 public facilities. Table 2: Public Facility Adequacy Status Public Facility FY 2022-23 Adequacy Status (Meets performance standard?) Buildout Adequacy Status (Meets performance standard?) City Administrative Facilities Yes Yes Library Yes Additional facilities to be provided Wastewater Treatment Capacity Yes Yes Parks Yes Yes Drainage Yes Additional facilities to be provided Circulation Yes* Additional facilities to be provided Fire Yes Yes Open Space Yes Additional facilities to be provided Schools Yes Yes Sewer Collection System Yes Additional facilities to be provided Water Distribution System Yes Additional facilities to be provided * The information on the status of the Circulation performance standard is provided in part by this report (status of the vehicle travel mode). The status of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes will be reported separately. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 11 of 44 FY 2022-23 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Residential Development Activity During FY 2022-23, building permits were issued for 276 new dwelling units (194 primary dwellings and 82 accessory dwellings). Table 6 indicates where the residential development activity occurred. Table 3: FY 2022-23 Building Permits Issued – Dwelling Units Quadrant Local Facility Management Zone Primary Dwellings Accessory Dwellings Northwest 1 120 48 3 0 4 8 0 1 Total NW 120 53 Northeast 2 0 5 7 0 2 Total NE 0 7 Southwest 5 70 0 6 0 2 9 0 1 19 1 3 20 0 1 Total SW 71 7 Southeast 6 3 8 11 0 4 12 0 2 18 0 1 Total SE 3 15 Total Citywide 194 82 Figure 2 shows the recent five-year trend of building permits issued for dwelling units and shows that the permits issued in FY 2022-23 were 26 percent less than the permits issued in FY 2018-19, 10 to 14 percent higher than FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, and 144 percent higher than FY 2021-22. Figure 2 – Five Year Trend of Building Permits Issued for Dwelling Units 375 242 251 113 276 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 # B u i l d i n g P e r m i t s I s s u e d Fiscal Year June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 12 of 44 Non-Residential Development Activity During FY 2022-23, building permits were issued for 63,338 square feet of new commercial construction and 227,650 square feet of new industrial construction. Table 7 provides a breakdown by quadrant and Local Facility Management Zone, excluding the zones that had no building permit activity. Figure 3 shows the recent five-year trend of building permits issued for non-residential construction. The amount of non- residential square feet permitted in FY 2022-23 was 7.7% less than FY 2018-19, 21.9% less than FY 2019- 20, and 34.2% to 169.6% more than FY 2020-21 to FY 2021-22. Table 4 – FY 2022-23 Non-Residential Development Quadrant Local Facility Management Zone Commercial (SF) Industrial (SF) Combined (SF) Northwest 1 44,852 - 44,852 5 - 480 13 18,486 - 18,486 Total NW 63,338 - 97,842 Southeast 18 - 227,170 227,170 Total SE - - 227,170 Total Citywide 63,338 227,650 290,988 Figure 3 – FY 2022-23 Non-Residential Square Feet Permitted 315,194 372,455 216,834 107,935 290,988 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Sq u a r e F e e t P e r m i t t e d Fiscal Year June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 13 of 44 Growth Management Program (Proposition E) Dwelling Unit Cap Analysis In 1986, through Proposition E, voters limited the number of dwelling units in the city to the 54,599 dwelling units, and limited units in each quadrant, as shown in Table 3. However, as described in the “Impacts of State Law” section above, state housing laws preempt the city’s ability to require compliance with the Proposition E dwelling unit caps. Table 3 shows the Proposition E dwelling unit caps for reference purposes only and shows that existing and planned unbuilt dwellings remain below the dwelling unit caps (as of June 30, 2023). Table 3 represents the number of existing dwellings and the number of future dwelling units (“unbuilt planned dwellings”), as of June 30, 2023, that could be built (based on the applicable growth management control point density) on all parcels that have a residential land use designation according to the General Plan Land Use Map. The “total existing and unbuilt planned dwellings”, as shown in Table 3, assumes all parcels with a residential land use designation will be developed with residential dwellings, including land that is currently developed with non-residential uses (e.g., churches and professional care facilities). Table 5: FY 2022-23 Residential Dwelling Status Per Quadrant As of June 30, 2023 Northwest Quadrant Northeast Quadrant Southwest Quadrant Southeast Quadrant Citywide Total Proposition E Dwelling Cap4 15,370 9,042 12,859 17,328 54,599 Existing Dwellings5 12,781 7,460 10,274 16,488 47,003 Unbuilt Planned Dwellings6 2,553 1,480 1,650 534 6,217 Total Existing and Unbuilt Planned Dwellings 15,334 8,940 11,924 17,022 53,220 Units below or above dwelling cap7 36 below 102 below 935 below 306 below 1,379 below The section below titled “Housing Element Rezone Program” identifies how the rezone program affects the dwelling unit caps. The rezone program was approved by City Council on January 30, 2024, which is outside the reporting period of this report and is therefore not reflected in Table 5. 4 Proposition E dwelling caps are not enforceable and are shown here for reference purposes only (see the “Impacts of State Law” section of this report. 5 Existing dwellings exclude accessory dwelling units and commercial living units. The number of accessory dwelling units and commercial living units (professional care facilities) are shown in Table 4 for purposes of population estimates. Table 3 compares existing dwellings to the Proposition E dwelling unit caps, and for purposes of the dwelling caps, accessory dwellings and commercial living units are excluded. California Government Code Section 65852.2 states that accessory dwelling units shall not be considered in the application of any local ordinance, policy or program that limits residential growth. Regarding commercial living units (e.g., professional care facilities, hotels, and time-shares), Carlsbad Municipal Code Section 21.04.093 states that such units are not considered dwelling units due to the assistance/services provided in conjunction with the living unit and/or the use of the living unit for temporary lodging. 6 All quadrants except the Village - includes unbuilt approved projects, as well as vacant and underdeveloped property designated for residential use by the General Plan. 7 For reference purposes only. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 14 of 44 POPULATION Existing Population (as of June 30, 2023) The performance standards for city administrative facilities, library facilities, and parks are stated in terms of population. The demand for these facilities is based on each new dwelling unit built and the estimated number of new residents it adds to the city, which is determined using the average number of persons per dwelling unit. Utilizing data from the 2020 Federal Census (total population divided by total number of dwelling units), the average for Carlsbad is 2.44 persons per dwelling unit. As shown in Table 4, as of June 30, 2023, the city’s population is estimated to be 117,107, which is calculated by multiplying 2.44 persons per dwelling unit by the number of dwelling units and accessory dwelling units and adding population in commercial living units (professional care facilities). The population estimates are based on the 2020 Census population estimate and the city’s dwelling unit estimates and may vary from estimates of other agencies. The city’s population estimate methodology has been refined and updated since the last (March 2022) Growth Management Program Monitoring Report for FY 2021-22, as described below: • The FY 2021-22 report utilized a persons per dwelling unit (2.404) estimate that was based on the April 2020 Census total population (114,746) divided by the 2020 Census total dwellings (47,734). The city maintains a database of existing dwellings, which differs from the 2020 Census dwelling estimate. Because the city uses its dwelling database to estimate population, as shown in Table 4, a more accurate method to calculate persons per dwelling is to divide the 2020 Census total population (114,746) by the city’s estimated total dwellings in April 2020 (46,772), which results in 2.44 persons per dwelling. • The FY 2021-22 report utilized data from the 2010 Census for the number of group quarters (professional care facilities/commercial living units) in the city, as that data was not yet available from the 2020 Census. Since the last report (March 2022) for FY 2021-22, additional data from the 2020 Census was evaluated regarding the number of group quarters (professional care facilities/commercial living units). The 2020 Census reports a lower population in group quarters (professional care facilities/commercial living units) compared to the 2010 Census. Overall, the updated population estimate methodology results in a population estimate that is 693 persons less than the FY 2021-22 report. The reduction in population is primarily due to the updated 2020 Census group quarters information. The city’s population estimate remains higher when compared to the population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) and the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG); both agencies are estimating a decline in population since the 2020 Census. The Department of Finance (DOF) estimates that Carlsbad’s population, as of January 1, 2023, was 114,549 (316 less than the DOF January 1, 2022, estimate). SANDAG’s current population estimates are consistent with the DOF. City staff will continue to monitor projected population estimates from the DOF and SANDAG. The city updates its population estimate methodology after each decennial census; the next will be in 2030. The city’s method ensures a consistent methodology over a 10-year period, which provides stable population projections for public facility planning purposes. If other agencies continue to estimate a declining population, the city’s population estimates will remain conservatively high and will be adjusted after the 2030 Census. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 15 of 44 Table 6: Existing Population (as of June 30, 2023) Quadrant Existing Dwelling Units Existing Accessory Dwelling Units Total Existing Dwelling Units Dwelling Unit Population Population in Professional Care Facilities 2020 Census Population in Professional Care Facilities After 2020 Total Population NW 12,781 310 13,091 31,944 172 - 32,116 NE 7,460 56 7,516 18,340 179 270 18,789 SW 10,274 54 10,328 25,201 139 - 25,340 SE 16,488 206 16,694 40,735 127 - 40,826 TOTAL 47,003 626 47,629 116,220 617 270 117,107 Buildout Population (as of June 30, 2023) Table 5 estimates the number of dwellings that will exist at buildout based on current (June 30, 2023) General Plan residential land use designations. Table 7: Estimated Buildout Population (as of June 30, 2023) Quadrant Dwelling Units8 Population9 NW 15,644 39,215 NE 8,996 22,550 SW 11,978 30,026 SE 17,228 43,186 Total 53,846 134,977 The section below titled “Housing Element Rezone Program” identifies how the rezone program affects the estimated buildout population. The rezone program was approved by City Council on January 30, 2024, which is outside the reporting period of this report; however, the information is provided in anticipation of questions about the rezone program. 8 Includes existing accessory dwellings. 9 Includes population in group quarters (e.g., professional care facilities) – an additional 0.86% of household population. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 16 of 44 HOUSING ELEMENT REZONE PROGRAM On Jan. 30, 2024, the City Council voted to approve the rezoning of properties around Carlsbad, as shown below. The purpose of the rezone program is to meet state housing requirements by implementing Housing Element Program 1.1, which requires rezoning various properties to allow higher residential densities to accommodate the city’s Regional Housing Needs Assessment obligations. Figure 4 – Housing Sites Approved for Rezoning June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 17 of 44 The rezone program results in an increased number of future dwellings and population. The following information estimates future dwellings and population with the rezoned sites and shows how the dwelling caps are affected. Table 8 – Estimated Buildout Dwellings and Population with Rezone Program Quadrant Growth Management Dwelling Caps Estimated Buildout Dwelling Units Estimated Buildout Population Northwest 15,370 17,081 42,817 Northeast 9,042 9,600 24,065 Southwest 12,859 12,385 31,046 Southeast 17,328 17,270 43,291 Citywide 54,599 56,366 141,219 As described in the “Impacts of State Law” section above, state housing laws preempt the city’s ability to require compliance with the Growth Management (Proposition E) dwelling unit caps. The approval of the Housing Element Rezone Program on Jan. 30, 2024, results in an increase in future dwelling units that will exceed the Growth Management dwelling caps in the northwest and northeast quadrants, as well as citywide. This estimate includes consistent methodology of persons per household and vacancy rates from the 2020 census. This methodology is updated during each 10-year census period. Current demographic projections from the San Diego Association of Governments show the region’s population declining after 2042. This report will continue to use the best available data from the census. Environmental documents, such as Environmental Impact Reports, will also use the best available information for consistency and public disclosure of impacts. Although the city is no longer able to enforce the dwelling unit caps, future development must still comply with the Growth Management Program’s public facility performance standards, which will ensure adequate public facilities are provided concurrent with growth. The sections below describe the status of each public facility performance standard, as of June 30, 2023 (prior to approval of the rezone program). Analysis of how the rezone program affects the public facility performance standards is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 18 of 44 CITY ADMINISTRATIVE FACILITIES Performance Standard 1,500 sq. ft. per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the estimated June 30, 2023, population estimate of 117,107, the current demand for administrative facilities is 175,661 square feet. To date, city administrative facilities exceed the performance standard. The existing inventory of City of Carlsbad and Carlsbad Municipal Water District buildings (leased and owned) occupied for administrative services are included in Table 8: Table 9: Existing Administrative Facilities (as of June 30, 2023) Facility Address Square Feet City Hall Complex 1200 Carlsbad Village Drive 16,000 Faraday Administration Building 1635 Faraday Ave. 68,000 Fleet Service Center 2480 Impala Drive 10,540 Water District (Maintenance & Operations) 5950 El Camino Real 18,212 Parks Yard (Maintenance & Operations) 1166 Carlsbad Village Drive 4,012 Public Works Operations 405 Oak Ave. 9,950 Safety Center (Police and Fire administration) 2560 Orion Way 55,027 First Responder Safety Training Center 5750 Orion Way 15,090 Senior Center (Parks & Recreation administration) 799 Pine Ave. 5,770 Harding Community Center (Parks & Recreation administration) 3096 Harding St. 1,335 Total Existing Square Feet of Administrative Facilities 203,936 Square Feet Required by Performance Standard 175,661 Square Feet that Exceeds Standard 28,275 Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the General Plan residential land use designations in effect June 30, 2023, the projected buildout population is 134,977, the demand for city administrative facilities will be 202,466 square feet. The existing 203,936 square feet of administrative facilities exceeds the growth management performance standard at buildout (estimated June 30, 2023). Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the City Administrative Facilities performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 19 of 44 New Orion Center Project A development proposal is underway for the Orion Center project, which will centralize the city’s maintenance and operations functions into a single location on Orion Way. The goal for the facility is to accommodate the existing and future needs for Public Works (Facilities and Streets Maintenance) and Parks & Recreation (Parks Maintenance). The proposed project will make two existing city facilities available for redevelopment: 405 Oak Street, and 1166 Carlsbad Village Drive. The Orion Center project will provide 25,000 square feet of administrative space (among other uses), which will be a net increase of 11,000 square feet over the two existing sites. The Planning Commission approved a Conditional Use Permit for the project in April 2023. New City Hall Project On Aug. 16, 2022, the City Council received an update on a new City Hall and directed staff to pursue a new approximately 40,000 square foot City Hall to be built on the site of the current City Hall Complex (16,500 square feet). After the August 2022 City Council update report, city staff refined the plans for the City Hall Complex and determined the facility will be approximately 34,000 square feet, which is an increase of 17,500 square feet compared to the existing facility. The new facility will include administrative facilities for existing City Hall Complex staff. Additionally, the New City Hall Project will likely also include the planning efforts for a new Cole Library facility, see “Library Facilities” in the next section. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 20 of 44 LIBRARY FACILITIES Performance Standard 800 sq. ft. (of library space) per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. Note: library space is used as a standard library measurement of customer use and includes collection space, seating, meeting rooms, staff areas, technology, and other public facility needs. The performance standard was originally developed based on surveys of other libraries of comparable size and based on related standards (such as volumes per capita) set by the American Library Association. FY 2022-23 Inventory and Adequacy of Facilities The current inventory of library facilities (city-owned) is shown in Table 9: Table 10: Existing Library Facilities (as of June 30, 2023) Facility Square Feet Dove Library 64,000 Cole Library 24,600 Learning Center 11,393 Total Existing Library Square Feet 99,993 Square Feet Required by Performance Standard 93,686 Square Feet that Exceed Standard 6,307 Based on the June 30, 2023, population estimate of 117,107, the growth management standard requires 93,686 square feet of public library space. The city’s current 99,993 square feet of library facilities adequately meets the growth management standard. Facility Adequacy at Buildout Based on the General Plan residential land use designations in effect June 30, 2023, the projected buildout population is 134,977, the demand for library facilities will be 107,982 square feet. The existing 99,993 square feet of library facilities will fall short of the growth management standard at buildout (estimated June 30, 2023). Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Library Facilities performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. In 2015-16, the city completed major maintenance and renovation for both the Cole and Dove facilities that addresses current Americans with Disabilities Act requirements and allows delivery of modern library services and technology, while extending the life of the Cole Library by 10 to 15 years. Built in 1967, the design of the Cole Library did not contemplate modern library services, such as delivery of electronic resources, automated materials handling, and media formats. The library’s role as a community gathering space has also evolved. With an already maximized building footprint and infrastructure constraints, the Cole Library will not expand further to meet these changing needs. Complete replacement and expansion of the Cole facility is included in the Capital Improvement Program budget between the years 2023 and buildout, as part of the new City Hall project (see “Administrative Facilities” in the preceding section). The City Hall project will most likely inform the timing, impact and opportunities for a new Cole library facility. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 21 of 44 WASTEWATER TREATMENT CAPACITY Performance Standard Sewer plant capacity is adequate for at least a five-year period. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis The Encina Water Pollution Control Facility currently provides adequate capacity in excess of the performance standard. Carlsbad’s FY 2022-23 annual daily average dry weather sewer flow was 6.22 million gallons per day (MGD) representing 61% of the city’s 10.26 MGD capacity rights. The city’s annual daily average sewage flow to the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility for the previous five years is shown in Table 10: Table 11: Five-Year Annual Daily Average Sewage Flow Fiscal Year Annual daily average flow FY 2018-19 6.03 MGD FY 2019-20 6.31 MGD FY 2020-21 6.31 MGD FY 2021-22 5.72 MGD FY 2022-23 6.22 MGD Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The Encina Water Pollution Control Facility Phase V Expansion provides adequate sewer treatment capacity to ensure compliance with the growth management wastewater performance standard through buildout of the Carlsbad sewer service area. The City of Carlsbad 2019 Sewer Master Plan Update contains an analysis of annual daily average sewer flow through buildout (2040) of the city based on the Carlsbad General Plan land use projections. The analysis indicates that the city’s projected ultimate buildout flow is approximately 8.31 MGD. The city has purchased capacity rights to 10.26 MGD in the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility, which ensures adequate wastewater treatment capacity is available to accommodate an unanticipated increase in future sewer flows. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Wastewater Treatment Capacity performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 22 of 44 PARKS Performance Standard 3.0 acres of Community Park or Special Use Area per 1,000 population within the Park District10 must be scheduled for construction11 within a five-year period beginning at the time the need is first identified12. The five-year period shall not commence prior to August 22, 2017. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis As shown in Table 11, all quadrants were in compliance with the park standard during FY 2022-23. Table 12: Existing Park Inventory and Required Park Acreage (as of June 30, 2024) Quadrant Park acreage inventory existing Park acreage required by Standard NW 131.7 96.3 NE 68.7 56.4 SW 93.6 76.0 SE 138.3 122.6 Total 432.4 351.3 The existing park acreage inventory in each quadrant meets the current park acreage required by the performance standard. Veterans Memorial Park The existing park acreage inventory in Table 11 includes 23.425 acres allocated to each quadrant for Veterans Memorial Park. On July 26, 2022, the City Council adopted the Veterans Memorial Park Master Plan. The Veterans Memorial Park site has been selected, a financing plan for the construction of the park has been approved, and the adoption of the master plan signified completion of the park design. Therefore, the park has been “scheduled for construction.” Veterans Memorial Park is a 93.7-acre park located approximately 350 feet east of Cannon Road and Faraday Avenue. Because of its size, relatively centralized location, and citywide significance, the park will help fulfill citywide park facility needs. The city’s intention for the park to be a citywide park facility, and for the total park acreage to be allocated equally to all city quadrants, dates to the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (CFIP) approved in 1986 (See Resolution 8797, adopted September 23, 1986, Exhibit A at pp. 33–35 [allocating 25 acres from the Macario Canyon park to each quadrant]). Additionally, the following documents reaffirmed the acreage allocation of Veterans Memorial Park for citywide benefit: • Community Facilities District No. 1 (CFD), established in 1991, finances public facilities of citywide benefit, including Veterans Memorial Park. • 2015 General Plan Open Space, Conservation and Recreation Element credits equal acreage from Veterans Memorial Park to each quadrants future park inventory. 10 "Park District" = "quadrant". There are four park districts within the city, corresponding to the four quadrants. 11 “Scheduled for construction” means that the improvements have been designed, a site has been selected, and a financing plan for construction of the facility has been approved (See Resolution 2017-170.) An identical definition was adopted in the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan in September 1986 (pages 14 and 32). 12 The threshold for triggering the construction of a new park is as follows: Once a deficit of park acreage in a quadrant is identified, a new park must be scheduled for construction within the time frame of five years. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 23 of 44 Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the FY 2022-23 Capital Improvement Program list of projects, Veterans Memorial Park is proposed to be constructed prior to buildout. The scheduling of construction of this community park results in the projected park inventory for all city quadrants exceeding the projected required acreage at buildout, as shown in Table 13: Table 13: Projected Park Inventory at Buildout Quadrant Buildout Population Buildout Required Acreage Current Inventory Projected Inventory NW 39,215 117.6 131.7 131.7 NE 22,550 67.7 68.7 68.7 SW 30,026 90.1 93.6 93.6 SE 43,186 129.6 138.3 138.3 Total 134,977 404.9 432.4 432.4 Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Parks performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. Additional Parks Acreage The projected park acreage numbers in Table 13 do not include park projects listed in the CIP as “partially funded” or “unfunded”. Should additional funding mechanisms be found, and these parks are built, the additional park acreage would further aid in meeting/exceeding the growth management parks performance standard. • Partially funded – In the FY 2022-23 CIP, $614,000 has been appropriated to the Robertson Ranch Park project (NE – 11.2 acres), which continued its status as “partially funded”. The master planning process for this park began in FY 2022-23. • Unfunded – Zone 5 Business Park Recreational Facility (NW – 9.3 acres) and Cannon Lake Park (NW – 6.8 acres). June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 24 of 44 DRAINAGE Performance Standard Drainage facilities must be provided as required by the city concurrent with development. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis All areas of the city currently (as of June 30, 2023) meet the growth management drainage performance standard because required drainage facilities have been provided concurrent with development. Drainage facility needs are best assessed as specific development plans for individual projects are finalized. Therefore, the drainage performance standard was written to allow the city to require appropriate drainage facilities as development plans are finalized and approved. The construction of drainage facilities related development projects is addressed during the review of individual project proposals. Maintenance, repair, and replacement drainage projects are identified on an ongoing basis and are incorporated in the Capital Improvement Program as a part of the Storm Drain Condition Assessment Program, the Citywide Storm Drain Rehabilitation and Replacement Program, or as individual/stand-alone projects. Master planned drainage facilities are identified in the city’s 2008 Drainage Master Plan. The associated Planned Local Drainage Area fee program finances the construction of these facilities. The goal of the Drainage Master Plan is to assess the performance of existing drainage infrastructure, identify anticipated improvements and identify a funding mechanism to ensure construction of the planned facilities. The Drainage Master Plan is updated periodically to reflect changes in the general plan, city growth, construction costs, drainage standards and environmental regulations. At the present, the Public Works Branch is updating the 2008 Drainage Master Plan to ensure these larger/master planned facilities will be adequately funded. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis As development occurs in the future, additional drainage facilities will be required consistent with the performance standard. The 2008 Drainage Master Plan proposes the construction of new facilities to reduce the flooding risk from potential storm events. Construction of the proposed drainage facilities will provide the backbone system to maintain the drainage performance standard through buildout of the city. The current update to the Drainage Master Plan will address funding availability for the construction of needed flood control facilities. The estimated costs for these facilities and the programming of Planned Local Drainage Area funds are included in the annual Capital Improvement Program. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Drainage performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 25 of 44 CIRCULATION The information on the status of the Circulation performance standard for the vehicle travel mode is provided by this report. The status of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes will be reported separately. Performance Standard Implement a comprehensive livable streets network that serves all users of the system – vehicles, pedestrians, bicycles and public transit. Maintain level of service (LOS) D or better for all modes that are subject to this multi-modal level of service (MMLOS) standard, as identified in Table 3-1 of the General Plan Mobility Element, excluding LOS exempt intersections and streets approved by the City Council. Background The following Circulation information discusses the service levels for each travel mode, which are represented as a letter “grade” ranging from LOS A to LOS F. LOS A reflects a high level of service for a travel mode (e.g., outstanding characteristics and experience for that mode) and LOS F would reflect an inadequate level of service for a travel mode (e.g., excessive congestion for vehicles or inadequate facilities for bicycle, pedestrian or transit users). The monitoring and implementation of the performance standard for the circulation system are guided by the following: General Plan Mobility Element Goals and Policies Goal 3-G.1: Keep Carlsbad moving with livable streets that provide a safe, balanced, cost-effective, multi- modal transportation system (vehicles, pedestrians, bikes, transit), accommodating the mobility needs of all community members, including children, the elderly and the disabled. The California Complete Streets Act (2008) requires cities in California to plan for a balanced, multi-modal transportation system that meets the needs of all travel modes. Accomplishing this state mandate requires a fundamental shift in how the city plans and designs the street system – recognizing the street as a public space that serves all users of the system (elderly, children, bicyclists, pedestrians, etc.) within the urban context of that system (e.g., account for the adjacent land uses). • Prior to adoption of the General Plan Mobility Element on Sept. 22, 2015, the growth management circulation performance standard was based on the circulation needs of a single mode of travel – the automobile. • The General Plan Mobility Element identifies a new livable streets strategy for mobility within the city. • The livable streets strategy focuses on creating a ‘multi-modal’ street network that supports the mobility needs of pedestrians, bicyclists, transit users and vehicles. • Providing travel mode options that reduce dependence on the vehicle also supports the city’s Climate Action Plan in achieving its goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the city. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 26 of 44 Implementing Policy 3-P.3: Apply and update the city’s multi-modal level of service (MMLOS) methodology and guidelines that reflect the core values of the Carlsbad Community Vision related to transportation and connectivity. Utilize the MMLOS methodology to evaluate impacts of individual development projects and amendments to the General Plan on the city’s transportation system. Implementing Policy 3-P.4: Implement the city’s MMLOS methodology and maintain LOS D or better for each mode of travel for which the MMLOS standard is applicable, as identified in Table 3-1 and Figure 3- 113. General Plan Mobility Element Street Typology The city’s approach to provide livable streets recognizes that improving the LOS for one mode of transportation can sometimes degrade the LOS for another mode. For example, pedestrian-friendly streets are designed to encourage pedestrian uses and typically have amenities that slow vehicle travel speeds (e.g., short-distance pedestrian crossings that restrict vehicle mobility). The “street typology” is defined in the General Plan Mobility Element and determines which travel modes are subject to the MMLOS D standard, as summarized in Table 14. For example, the vehicular mode of travel is subject to the MMLOS D standard on the following street typologies: freeways, arterial streets, arterial connector streets and Industrial streets. Table 14: Street Typology and MMLOS Standard STREET TYPOLOLOGY Modes subject to the MMLOS D Standard Vehicular Transit Pedestrian Bicycle Freeways Yes Yes No No Arterial Streets Yes Yes No No Identity Streets No No Yes Yes Village Streets No No Yes Yes Arterial Connector Streets Yes No Yes Yes Neighborhood Connector Streets No No Yes Yes Coastal Streets No No Yes Yes School Streets No No Yes Yes Employment/Transit Connector Streets No Yes Yes Yes Industrial Streets Yes Yes No No Local/Neighborhood Streets No No Yes Yes All Streets Located Within Half-Mile of a Transit Center No Yes Yes Yes Bicycle/Pedestrian Pathways No No Yes Yes Methods to Measure Level of Service (LOS) for Different Transportation Modes How vehicular LOS is measured The city monitors facilities that are subject to the vehicular LOS standard according to that street’s typology as defined in Table 14. This section of the report summarizes the vehicular LOS methodology used for monitoring purposes. For the fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 monitoring report all the street facilities required to meet the vehicular LOS standard were monitored including the arterial, arterial connector, and industrial street typologies. The city evaluates the roadway network at the “facility” level according to Chapter 16 of the Highway Capacity Manual. A facility is defined as one direction of travel along a length of road that has similar travel and geometric characteristics, and it typically extends between multiple signalized intersections. 13 Table 3-1 and Figure 3-1 are found in the General Plan Mobility Element and are summarized in Table 14 of this report. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 27 of 44 Each facility has an associated capacity that is defined in the Highway Capacity Manual as “the ability of a transportation facility or service to meet the quantity of travel demanded of it.” For Growth Management Plan monitoring purposes, travel demand on a roadway is measured by the volume of vehicles using the facility during the peak hours of operation. A volume threshold is established for each LOS grade according to the Highway Capacity Manual. The vehicular LOS is determined by comparing the traffic volume against these thresholds. For example, a LOS D is recorded when a traffic volume exceeds the LOS C threshold but is below the LOS D threshold. A street “facility” is comprised of smaller and contiguous “segments” that typically extend between two adjacent signalized intersections. Per the Highway Capacity Manual, an entire facility is reported as failing if the volume along any one of its segments exceeds its capacity, which defines LOS F. When a facility has been monitored and found to operate at LOS D, each segment of that facility will be evaluated the following monitoring cycle and the LOS will be reported as follows: a. If the volume of any one segment of the facility exceeds the reported capacity for that segment, the facility will be reported as LOS F; or b. If none of the segment volumes exceeds its reported capacity for that segment, the facility will be reported as LOS D (or the new level if it has changed). As noted above, travel demand is assumed to equal the traffic volume measured during the peak hour of operation. Vehicular LOS is determined based on one mid-block traffic count collected for each facility (or segment) being evaluated. The data is collected while school is in session in either the spring or fall. The morning and afternoon (a.m./p.m.) peak hours’ LOS is reported for each facility or segment. Each street evaluated will have separate LOS results reported for the a.m. and p.m. peak hour conditions with independent grades reported for each direction of travel. This approach to data collection is consistent with industry standards. How Pedestrian, Bicycle and Transit Service MMLOS is measured The General Plan Mobility Element calls for the use of a MMLOS methodology to provide a metric for evaluating bicycle, pedestrian and transit modes of travel. In 2015, a method for evaluating bicycle and pedestrian LOS was first developed as part of the General Plan Environmental Impact Report (EIR); this EIR method was applied on a broad, program level to evaluate service to pedestrian, bicycle and transit users. When consultants applied the EIR’s method during the preparation of impact studies of proposed development projects, limitations were discovered in terms of the study area, directional travel and potential inconsistent interpretations of how the method should be applied. Accordingly, in 2018 city staff began developing a more robust MMLOS calculation method for the City Council to consider. The method is intended to calculate MMLOS for each mode and identify a broader range of improvements that could be implemented to ensure the minimum operating standard would be met. As noted in General Plan Mobility Element Policy 3-P.3, the purpose of the MMLOS methodology is to provide a means for evaluating impacts of individual development projects, as well as monitoring the LOS for individual streets to ensure that they are meeting the specified standard by street type. The proposed MMLOS methodology for evaluating bicycle, pedestrian and transit LOS has not been approved by City Council. The FY 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report is being presented to City Council with the status of the Vehicular LOS Standard, but not the status of the other modes because the proposed June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 28 of 44 draft MMLOS methodology for those modes is still being vetted and has not been approved by City Council. Staff will present the FY2022-23 draft MMLOS analysis, including the proposed draft methodology developed by the Traffic Safety and Mobility Commission subcommittee, and the draft findings and recommendations, to City Council as a separate item later this year. This approach will ensure that the City Council and stakeholders can fully understand the proposed methodology. Additionally, it facilitates a focused discussion on any potential policy adjustments needed to align with the objectives of the City’s General Plan Vision and Mobility Element. Exemptions to the LOS D Standard General Plan Mobility Element Policy 3-P.9 requires the city to develop and maintain a list of street facilities where specified modes of travel are exempt from the LOS standard (LOS-exempt street facilities), as approved by the City Council. Regarding vehicular LOS standards, the City Council has the authority to exempt a street facility from the vehicular LOS standard if the street facility meets one or more of the following criteria from General Plan Mobility Element Policy 3-P.9: a. Acquiring the rights of way is not feasible; or b. The proposed improvements would significantly impact the environment in an unacceptable way and mitigation would not contribute to the nine core values of the Carlsbad Community Vision; or c. The proposed improvements would result in unacceptable impacts to other community values or General Plan policies; or d. The proposed improvements would require more than three through travel lanes in each direction. General Plan Mobility Element Policy 3-P.11 requires new development that adds vehicular traffic to street facilities that are exempt from the vehicle LOS D standard to implement: • Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies that reduce the reliance on single- occupant automobiles and assist in achieving the city’s livable streets vision; and • Transportation System Management (TSM) strategies that improve traffic signal coordination and improve transit service. Each of the previously exempt street facilities were monitored this cycle and evaluated against the vehicular LOS standard. The results of this evaluation are summarized in Table 15 below. No changes have occurred since the adoption of these resolutions that would warrant lifting exemptions for these street facilities. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 29 of 44 Table 14: Vehicle LOS Exempt Street Facilities Street Facility From To LOS (AM/PM) Meets LOS Standard? Date of Exemption 1. La Costa Avenue Interstate-5 El Camino Real B/C Yes Exempted with adoption of the General Plan Mobility Element on Sept. 22, 2015 2. La Costa Avenue El Camino Real Interstate-5 C/B Yes 3. El Camino Real Palomar Airport Road Camino Vida Roble D/C Yes 4. El Camino Real Camino Vida Roble Poinsettia Lane C/C Yes 5. El Camino Real Poinsettia Lane Aviara Parkway/Alga Road C/C Yes 6. El Camino Real Aviara Parkway/Alga Road La Costa Avenue F/C No 7. El Camino Real La Costa Avenue Aviara Parkway/Alga Road C/C Yes 8. El Camino Real Aviara Parkway/Alga Road Poinsettia Lane C/C Yes 9. El Camino Real Poinsettia Lane Camino Vida Roble C/C Yes 10. El Camino Real Camino Vida Roble Palomar Airport Road C/C Yes 11. Palomar Airport Road Avenida Encinas Paseo del Norte F/F No 12. Palomar Airport Road Paseo del Norte Armada Drive D/C Yes 13. Palomar Airport Road Armada Drive College Blvd/Aviara Parkway C/C Yes 14. Palomar Airport Road College Blvd/Aviara Parkway Armada Drive C/C Yes 15. Palomar Airport Road Armada Drive Paseo del Norte C/D Yes 16. Palomar Airport Road Paseo del Norte Avenida Encinas F/F No 17. Palomar Airport Road El Camino Real El Fuerte Street B/C Yes 18. Palomar Airport Road El Fuerte Street Melrose Drive B/C Yes 19. Palomar Airport Road Melrose Drive El Fuerte Street C/C Yes 20. Palomar Airport Road El Fuerte Street El Camino Real C/C Yes 21. El Camino Real Oceanside city limits Marron Road F/E No Dec. 17, 2019 22. El Camino Real Marron Road Oceanside city limits E/E No 23. Melrose Drive Vista city limits Palomar Airport Road F/E No 24. El Camino Real Cannon Road College Boulevard C/B Yes Jun. 9, 2020 25. El Camino Real College Boulevard Cannon Road C/F No 26. Cannon Road El Camino Real College Boulevard D/E No 27. Cannon Road College Boulevard El Camino Real D/D Yes 28. El Camino Real Tamarack Avenue Cannon Road C/C Yes Nov. 3, 2020 29. College Boulevard Carlsbad Village Drive Oceanside City Limits C/E No Jan. 12, 2021* 30. Cannon Road Avenida Encinas Paseo del Norte F/E No 31. Cannon Road Paseo del Norte Avenida Encinas E/F No 32. Aviara Parkway/Alga Road Manzanita Street El Camino Real F/F No July 12, 2022 33. Aviara Parkway/Alga Road El Camino Real Manzanita Street F/F No *On January 12, 2021 City Council also exempted the remaining facility of Palomar Airport Road between Avenida Encinas to Paseo del Norte. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 30 of 44 FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis The following vehicular LOS and MMLOS results are based on the data reported in the City of Carlsbad Roadway Level of Service Analysis Report (March 2024). Vehicular LOS The vehicular LOS grades reflect traffic data gathered in fall of 2023. The traffic data represents typical weekday traffic conditions. Counts were collected at each midblock location for three consecutive weekdays. For each roadway segment, the highest one-hour AM and one-hour PM volume of the three days were determined for each direction of travel. The LOS results for the vehicular mode are illustrated in Figure 5. All the deficient roadway facilities identified above were previously determined by City Council to be deficient and exempt per General Plan Mobility Policy 3-P.10. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The 2015 General Plan EIR evaluated how buildout of the land uses planned by the General Plan will impact the vehicle, pedestrian, bicycle and transit levels of service, and identified that additional circulation facilities may need to be constructed to meet the GMP performance standard at buildout. The following summary provides the results of that evaluation. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Circulation performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. Vehicular Level of Service at Buildout (estimated as of June 30, 2023) • Additional future road segments (extensions of College Boulevard and Camino Junipero) needed to accommodate the city’s future growth were identified as part of the General Plan update. The General Plan Mobility Element identifies these needed future road segments as “Planned City of Carlsbad Street Capacity Improvements.” • The General Plan also called out the need to implement the scheduled Interstate-5 North Coast Project and Interstate-5/Interstate-78 Interchange Improvement Project that are needed to accommodate future growth. • The CIP funds projects that will upgrade the LOS including several roadway widenings along El Camino Real near College Boulevard (northbound), La Costa Avenue (southbound) and Cassia Road (northbound). • The General Plan EIR identifies TDM and TSM as mitigation measures for roadway sections that have been determined to be LOS-exempt. Next Steps City staff will present a comprehensive analysis of the Multimodal Level of Service (MMLOS) monitoring results to both the City Council and the Traffic Safety & Mobility Commission. The presentation will encompass detailed findings across various modes of travel, including considerations for pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit users. Following a thorough evaluation of these results, staff may propose updates to the City's MMLOS policies. Additionally, staff might recommend revisions to the existing methodologies used to evaluate each mode of travel. These adjustments will aim to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of MMLOS assessments, ensuring they more accurately reflect the diverse needs of the city’s transportation network. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 31 of 44 Figure 5: Vehicular Level of Service (LOS) Results June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 32 of 44 FIRE Performance Standard No more than 1,500 dwelling units outside of a five-minute response time. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis As of June 30, 2023, the city’s fire facilities comply with the performance standard. There are no more than 1,500 dwelling units outside of a five-minute response distance from any of the city’s seven fire stations. The intent of the performance standard, as applied to fire facilities, is to establish the distribution of station locations, based upon response distances. At the time the performance standard was developed, scientific fire behavior information and recognized best practices supported the position that a response time of five minutes would result in effective fire incident intervention. The performance standard provides no other mechanism for the installation of additional fire stations. It states that up to 1,500 dwelling units could exist outside the five-minute reach of the closest fire station for an indeterminate length of time without violating the standard. The five-minute response distance measure was selected exclusively as a means of geographically positioning fire stations throughout the city. Therefore, the standard is applied as a means of measuring compliance with locating fire facilities, not the performance of the Fire Department in meeting service responsibilities. To determine if the standard is met for FY 2022-23, the city refers to the response time analysis conducted for buildout of the number and location of dwellings planned by the General Plan, which is more dwellings than currently exist. See “buildout” section below, which concludes that the existing fire stations are adequate to meet the standard at buildout (i.e., adequate to serve more dwellings than currently exist). Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis At buildout (estimated June 30, 2023), the established threshold of more than 1,500 units that exist outside of a five-minute response distance will not be exceeded for any of the fire stations. To determine if fire facilities comply with the Fire performance standard at buildout, the city’s Geographic Information System Department mapped a five-minute response time from each fire station, based on the drivetime attributes of each roadway, and identified the number of estimated dwelling units at buildout that are outside the five-minute drivetime. Table 16: Number of Dwellings Outside Five Minute Response Time (as of June 30, 2023) Fire Station Number Total number of dwelling units outside of five minutes 1,3 & 4 (aggregated) 1,198 2 0 5 3 6 16 7 0 Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Fire performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 33 of 44 OPEN SPACE Performance Standard Fifteen percent of the total land area in the zone [Local Facility Management Zone] exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land must be set aside for permanent open space and must be available concurrent with development. Note: Pursuant to the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan, the Open Space standard is applicable in Local Facilities Management Zones 11 – 15 and 17 – 25. The standard does not apply in Zones 1 – 10 and 16 because these zones were either fully built out or had previously approved master plans which would provide sufficient open space at full build out. For more information, see the “Background Summary” below. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis As of June 30, 2023, adequate open space has been provided concurrent with new development to comply with the performance standard. Local Facility Management Plans have been adopted for all Local Facility Management Zones where the standard applies (Zones 11–15 and 17–25). Each Local Facility Management Plan (LFMP) identifies how the open space standard will be met within the zone. Within the applicable zones, approved development projects have been, and future development projects will be required to be, consistent with the open space required for the applicable Local Facility Management Zone. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis All Local Facilities Management Zones, except for Zone 22, have provided the required growth management open space as identified in the applicable Local Facility Management Plans, which address required open space through buildout of the zones. Future projects in Zone 22 must provide their proportionate share of required open space in compliance with the standard. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Open Space performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. Background The history of the open space standard helps to clarify its applicability today. It should be noted that the open space provided to meet the open space standard does not represent all the open space in Carlsbad. Open space to the meet standard is provided within the applicable Local Facility Management Zones and is in addition to constrained open space, such as protected habitat and slopes greater than 40 percent. The city utilizes other methods to protect all the open space resources and amenities throughout the city, including the Habitat Management Plan (protects the city’s natural open space preserve system), Growth Management Parks standard (parks are a source of recreational open space in the city), and the Trails Master Plan (trails are another source of recreational open space). June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 34 of 44 Citizens Committee for the Review of the Land Use Element (1985) In 1985, a citizen’s committee made recommendations to the City Council regarding changes to the city’s General Plan Land Use Element. The committee’s recommendations were used as the basis for developing the growth management facility standards. The committee recommended that future open space would be provided by future master planned areas (15 percent of the master plan area), as required by the Zoning Ordinance at that time (and today). Public Facility Standards (July 1986) and Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (Sept. 1986) In 1986, the City Council adopted the Growth Management Ordinance (Carlsbad Municipal Code Chapter 21.90) and the public facility standards for the Growth Management Program. The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan specified that the open space standard applies in some Local Facility Management Zones (Zones 11–15 and 17–25), but not others (Zones 1–10 and 16) because those zones were determined to have already been developed or to have already met the standard. (i.e., subject to previously adopted master and/or specific plans). Some previously adopted master and/or specific plans found that full build-out under the plans would provide sufficient open space required at the time these plans were approved, specifically, 15% of all areas (regardless of any constraints such as slope). Accordingly, the CFIP found these zones did not need to meet the later-adopted open space performance standard of 15% of non-constrained land. The CFIP exemption for these zones was recognized in the individual Local Facility Management Plans decades ago. This methodology is consistent with traditional land use methodology which applies new standards prospectively. (See 2020/2021 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report p. 27; Friends of H Street v. City of Sacramento (1993) 20 Cal.App.4th 152, 169 [California’s planning statutes “address future growth, and do not require local governments to bring existing neighborhoods and streets into compliance with the general plan.”].) The following are some key facts during the development of the open space standard: • As part of the development of the Growth Management Program, the city identified areas that were, at the time, “urbanized” (developed areas) “urbanizing” (some development or some level of planning completed, such as an existing master plan) and “future urbanizing” (very little to no development and no existing master plan). • A comparison of the Local Facilities Management Zones map and the 1986 Development Status Map shows that the zones where the open space standard is applicable (Zones 11 – 15 and 17 – 25) align, for the most part, with the areas identified in 1986 as “future urbanizing,” which is where future master plans would be required (e.g., Aviara, Bressi Ranch and Quarry Creek master plans) and is consistent with the 1985 committee recommendation for master plans to provide additional future open space. o The “urbanized” areas were already developed, and the “urbanizing” areas had previously approved development or master plans. Although the open space standard was not applied to the “urbanizing” areas, the existing approved master plans within these areas provided open space as required by city regulations in place at the time. Prior to the Growth Management Program and the open space standard, the city’s zoning ordinance required 15 percent of the total area of any master plan to be designated as open space. This 15 percent standard differs from the Growth Management open space standard because it applies to the total land area of a master plan and does not exclude environmentally constrained non- developable land. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 35 of 44 Note: OS standard applies to gray areas Figure 6 Local Facility Management Zones (adopted 1986) 1986 Development Status Map Where Open Space Standard Applies (adopted 1986) Common Questions About the Open Space Standard Is there a 40 percent open space requirement? It is a misconception that there is a standard that requires the city to provide 40 percent open space. There is no requirement or standard that requires 40 percent open space per individual projects or on a citywide basis. Neither Proposition E nor the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (CFIP) performance standards required 40 percent open space. Proposition E states “emphasis shall be given to ensuring good traffic circulation, schools, parks, libraries, open space, and recreational amenities.” The CFIP open space standard states “Fifteen percent of the total land area in the zone, exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land…concurrent with development.” The CFIP also states that Local Facilities Management Zones 1-10 and 16 “are already developed or meet or exceed the requirement” and are not subject to the CFIP open space standard. This methodology predates Proposition E, and was included in the CFIP, adopted by the City Council on September 23, 1986, by Resolution 8797. A July 8, 1986, City Council staff report on the facility standards states: “compliance with this [open space] standard should result in approximately 35 to 40% of the total land area in the city being open space when the city is fully built out.” A couple years later, a June 27, 1988, staff report to an open space committee, stated that “staff has estimated that approximately 10,000 acres or 38.5% of the total land area in the city is projected to be set aside for open space uses.” The shorthand estimate of 40% was simply derived by adding the 25 percent estimated constrained lands to the 15 percent GMP open space set-aside. However, this shorthand calculation did not consider that the standard only applied to 14 of the 25 Local Facility Management Zones (CFIP, p. 46), rather than the entire city. The reference to 40 percent open space was an estimate, not a standard or goal. Today, 38 percent of Carlsbad is dedicated as open space. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 36 of 44 Why doesn’t the open space standard apply to Local Facilities Management Zone 9? Local Facilities Management Zone 9 (Zone 9) is a good example of one of the “urbanizing” areas in 1986 where the open space standard was not applied. Zone 9 includes part of the Ponto area and the majority of the zone is subject to the Poinsettia Shores Master Plan. This is an area where the city has received community comments stating that the zone does not meet the open space standard and more open space is needed. In 1986 the City Council determined that the open space needs for Zone 9 had been met and therefore the open space standard does not apply to Zone 9. Zone 9 was an “urbanizing” area when the Growth Management Program was being developed. A master plan was approved for the area (Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park Master Plan). The master plan met the open space standard required at the time (Zoning Ordinance), which is 15 percent of the total area of the master plan. The following is a summary of actions related to Zone 9 that relate to the open space planned in that area: • Oct. 1, 1985 – Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park Master Plan approved by City Council and, as required by the zoning ordinance at the time, was required to provide a minimum 15 percent of the total master plan area as open space. • May 6, 1986 – City Council staff report on development of the Growth Management Program: o City council directed staff, working in conjunction with the developer of Zone 9, to finalize a pilot local facility management program to serve as a format model for programs for the other zones. The Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park Master Plan for Zone 9 had been approved the year before and it was a recent development plan to use as a model. • June 24, 1986 – Growth Management Ordinance approved (Zoning Ordinance Chapter 21.90): o Section 21.90.030(g) allowed development of phase I of the Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park Master Plan to proceed prior to approval of a Local Facility Management Plan for Zone 9, subject to certain conditions including that the developer agree to participate in the restoration of a significant lagoon and wetland resource area and make any open space dedications of property necessary to accomplish the restoration. The master plan developer did make the open space land dedications that were needed for the restoration of Batiquitos Lagoon. • Sept. 16, 1986 – City Council approves the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan, including the open space standard with the clarification that the standard is not applicable in Zones 1-10 and 16. • July 11, 1989 – City Council approves the Local Facilities Management Plan for Zone 9. Other than noting the existing open space within the zone, open space was not further analyzed in the plan, as the open space standard does not apply to Zone 9. • Jan. 18, 1994 – City Council adopts an ordinance approving Poinsettia Shores Master Plan, which replaced the Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park Master Plan. The related Planning Commission staff report (Oct. 20, 1993) evaluates open space in the master plan as follows: “The Poinsettia Shores Master Plan will not adjust or modify any existing General Plan designated open space areas or boundaries. Of the project's 162.8 total acres, approximately 34.8 acres are natural lagoon/wetland habitat which have Open Space General Plan designations (planning areas "I", "K", and "L") and have already been dedicated in fee title to the State of California, State Lands June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 37 of 44 Commissions in accordance with previous BLEP [Batiquitos Lagoon Educational Park] approvals. The master plan has additional open space totaling approximately 11 acres comprised of a community recreation center (planning area "M") and open space areas consisting of blufftop and roadway setbacks. The total master plan open space (approximately 46 acres) represents 28% of the entire master plan area. This exceeds the [Zoning Ordinance] requirement of at least 15% of the master plan area (24.4 acres) to be set aside as open space. As outlined in the Citywide Facilities Improvement Plan and the Zone 9 Local Facility Management Plan, this master plan has complied with all open space requirements. The project is also consistent with the Open Space and Conservation Resource Management Plan and incorporates master plan trails and links with the Citywide Trails System as required. The master plan's frontage on the east side of Carlsbad Boulevard (planning areas "G" and "H") is the location for linkage with the Citywide Trails System. These planning areas will be required to provide for the trail link within the required 40-foot structural setback from Carlsbad Boulevard. … On August 26, 1993, the master plan's open space program was reviewed by the City's Open Space Advisory Committee and unanimously supported…” While the open space standard is not applicable to Zone 9, open space has been provided for the area, including private recreation areas, trail linkages and a significant natural open space dedication that helped in the restoration of Batiquitos Lagoon1. 1 City of Carlsbad Planning Commission Staff Report dated Oct. 20, 1993, for MP 175(D)/GPA 91-05/LCPA 91-02/LFMP 87-09(A) Poinsettia Shores Master Plan. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 38 of 44 SCHOOLS Performance Standard School capacity to meet projected enrollment within the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) as determined by the appropriate school district must be provided prior to projected occupancy. Note: public school facilities are not planned, funded, or constructed by the city. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis All new residential development is required to verify that school capacity can meet the projected enrollment from the school district serving the development. As of June 30, 2023, all school districts serving Carlsbad have verified they have capacity to serve development in the city. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on Chapter 3.11 of the 2015 General Plan Environmental Impact Report, for all school districts at all grade levels, capacity is expected to be sufficient for the buildout student population with no need for additional schools. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Schools performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 39 of 44 SEWER COLLECTION SERVICES Performance Standard Trunk-line capacity to meet demand, as determined by the appropriate sewer districts, must be provided concurrent with development. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis The evaluation of conformance with the performance standard requires sewer master plan updates be conducted on an interval that is commensurate with development activity. As part of the updates, sewer flow monitoring is necessary to evaluate whether the sewer flow generation factors used to estimate sewer flows and system capacity adequately reflect actual conditions or require revision. The city conducts sewer master plan updates on a 5-year interval to evaluate trunk line capacity and requires sewer studies during discretionary project review for sewer system sizing. Sewer collection system improvements are provided on a project-by-project basis concurrent with development. Currently, the City of Carlsbad’s sewer service area pipelines comply with the performance standard. The sewer agencies that provide sewer collection systems within the city include: Carlsbad, Leucadia Wastewater District and Vallecitos Water District. Each agency indicates that they currently have adequate conveyance capacity in place to meet Carlsbad’s sewer collection demands. The City of Carlsbad is served by the following six major sewer interceptor systems in four of these interceptor systems, wastewater flow capacity is shared with other agencies as listed in Table 17. For both the Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor and the Buena Interceptor, Carlsbad’s capacity rights increase in the downstream direction as they flow to the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility. Capacity rights increase from 3.3% to 50% for the Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor and from 18% to 35% in the Buena Interceptor. This system of interceptors provides adequate capacity to transport wastewater to EWPCF. Table 17: Carlsbad Sewer Interceptors 1 Million gallons per day (MGD) 2 Buena Sanitation District and the City of Carlsbad are negotiating the transfer of this facility to the City of Carlsbad upon City of Vista’s commissioning of their Buena Outfall Force Main, Phase III project. 3 The downstream sections (NB8 and NB9) of the North Batiquitos Sewer, often referred to as Ponto Sewer and originally termed the Occidental Sewer 4Flows conveyed via Vista Carlsbad Interceptor to EWPCF Interceptor System Sewer Districts Served Carlsbad Capacity Rights1 FY 2022-23 Average Daily Flows Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor City of Carlsbad City of Vista Ranges from 1.0 MGD up to 41.8 MGD (3.3% - 50%) 3.20 MGD4 Buena Interceptor2 City of Carlsbad Buena Sanitation Dist. Ranges from 1.2 MGD up to 3.6 MGD (18% - 35%) 0.59 MGD Vallecitos Interceptor City of Carlsbad Buena Sanitation Dist. Vallecitos Water Dist. 5 MGD (24%) 1.62 MGD Occidental Sewer3 City of Carlsbad City of Encinitas Leucadia Wastewater Dist. 8.5 MGD (40%) 0.24 MGD June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 40 of 44 Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The City of Carlsbad 2019 Sewer Master Plan Update evaluated the sewer infrastructure needs of the Carlsbad sewer service area and identified facilities required to accommodate future sewer flows at buildout. The master plan identified the Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor and Buena Interceptor as requiring improvements to accommodate build-out demand (see below). Sewer trunk main adequacy is estimated by comparing wastewater flow projections to the capacity of the sewer system using a computer model. Sewer flow monitoring is used to assess actual flows and to evaluate the need for sewer capacity improvements. Collection system improvements to meet buildout conditions are identified at four locations: Faraday Avenue, Poinsettia Avenue, Pio Pico and Foxtail Loop. These projects are programmed in the Capital Improvement Program. The adequacy of major sewer facilities for buildout conditions is summarized as follows: Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor: The City’s 2019 Sewer Master Plan Update indicates that portions of the Vista/Carlsbad (VC) Interceptor do not satisfy buildout system flows. Hydraulic model results indicate that the 36-inch diameter gravity mains of Reach VC-3 are insufficient to convey buildout flows. Most of reach VC-3 consists of 36-inch diameter gravity main and is scheduled for upsizing to 42 inches as a future Capital Improvement Program project to meet buildout flows. Buena Interceptor: The Buena Interceptor is currently shared by Vista and Carlsbad and, although the city’s wastewater flows are not projected to exceed its capacity rights, the combined flows of Buena Sanitation District and City of Carlsbad during peak wet weather periods exceed the design capacity criterion. As a result, Buena Sanitation District has constructed a parallel trunk sewer which will allow Buena Sanitation District flow to be diverted to the parallel trunk sewer. Construction was completed in 2021, however Buena Sanitation District has not yet regularly diverted flow to this sewer. When they do, the City of Carlsbad will be the only agency with flows remaining in the existing Buena Interceptor and peak wet weather flow at buildout conditions would reach 7.3 MGD or approximately 69 percent of pipe capacity. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Sewer Collection Services performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. In summer 2024, Carlsbad will initiate the next Sewer Master Plan Update, which will include projections for land use, zoning, population, and development type for the next 20-year period. These criteria will serve as the basis for flow projections and related sewer system improvements for the study period. North Agua Hedionda Interceptor City of Carlsbad 6 MGD (100%) 1.27 MGD South Agua Hedionda Interceptor City of Carlsbad 4.7 MGD (100%) 0.91 MGD June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 41 of 44 WATER DISTRIBUTION SERVICES Performance Standard Line capacity to meet demand as determined by the appropriate water district must be provided concurrent with development. A minimum of 10-day average storage capacity must be provided prior to any development. FY 2022-23 Facility Adequacy Analysis Carlsbad’s water distribution is provided by three agencies including the Carlsbad Municipal Water District (CMWD), which is a subsidiary district of the City of Carlsbad, serving 32.32 square miles (82.7 percent of the city), Olivenhain Municipal Water District (OMWD) serving 5.28 square miles (13.5 percent of the city), and Vallecitos Water District (VWD) serving 1.48 square miles (3.8 percent of the city). These districts indicate that they have adequate pipeline and storage capacity to meet the water distribution performance standard. Water distribution demand requirements are estimated using a computer model to simulate the following water distribution scenarios: 1) average daily demand; 2) maximum day demand plus a fire event; and 3) peak hour demand. This computer model was calibrated using actual flow measurements collected in the field to verify it sufficiently represents the actual water system. Existing (2014 baseline year) and buildout (2040) daily demand as calculated in the CMWD 2019 Potable Water Master Plan are 24.1 MGD and 29.6 MGD, respectively. These were based on average daily demands of 15.1 MGD and 18.5 MGD and a peaking factor of 1.6. Within the CMWD service area, the actual existing average daily potable water demand has been much less than this for the previous five years as shown in Table 18: Table 18: Water Distribution Average Daily Demand Fiscal Year MGD 2018-19 12.41 2019-20 11.9 2020-21 12.8 2021-22 12.5 2022-23 11.4 Water conservation by CMWD customers has resulted in an overall reduction in per capita consumption. Factors leading to this reduction include (1) an expansion of CMWD’s recycled water system beginning in 2008, (2) in 2009, a campaign was initiated to reduce customer consumption by the wholesale water agencies, (3) implementation of a new tiered water rate structure to encourage water conservation, and (4) voluntary and mandatory conservation measures in 2015 in response to drought conditions. Based on the water model analysis prepared for the CMWD 2019 Potable Water Master Plan, future pipelines and water system facilities were identified to ensure water system improvements are constructed to accommodate future customers. In addition, funds for the construction of future facilities are included in the Capital Improvement Program. Therefore, the future water infrastructure is programmed to be in place at the time of need to ensure compliance with the performance standard. 1 Corrected demand for 2018-19 based on potable water sales data. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 42 of 44 The 10-day storage requirement is part of the water distribution performance standard and a planning criterion to accommodate pipeline maintenance recommended by the San Diego County Water Authority. To meet the requirement, CMWD needs approximately 130 MG of storage capacity based on the average water demand and 185 MG for buildout conditions. CMWD has a total storage capacity of 242.5 MG which consists of 195 MG of storage capacity at Maerkle Dam and 47.5 MG of storage capacity in various storage tanks throughout the distribution system as shown in Table 19. Table 19: Storage Tanks and Capacity Facility Name Year Built Capacity (MG) Santa Fe II Tank 1986 9 La Costa Tank 1985 6 Maerkle Tank 1991 10 TAP Tank 1985 6 D-3 Tank 1995 8.5 Ellery Tank 1972 5 Elm Tank 1972 1.5 Skyline Tank 1972 1.5 Maerkle Reservoir 1962 195 CMWD also has interagency agreements with OMWD, VWD and Oceanside to provide additional supply if needed. In 2004, the OMWD completed construction of a water treatment facility at the San Diego County Water Authority Emergency Storage Reservoir, which provides the storage necessary to meet the 10-day storage criterion for OMWD. VWD’s average day demand is 13.3 MGD with an existing storage capacity of 120.5 MG. Through interagency sharing arrangements, VWD can obtain additional water supplies to meet a 10-day restriction on imported water supply. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis As proposed land development projects are reviewed by the city, the Water Master Plans from CMWD, OMWD, and VWD are consulted to check pipeline sizes and facility capacities to verify adequacy to support the water needs of the project and city. To comply with water master plan requirements, land development projects may be required to construct a master plan water project concurrent with construction of the development project. The CMWD 2019 Potable Water Master Plan identifies facilities necessary to meet water demands for buildout within its service area. These consist of new pipelines and pipeline rehabilitation projects that are programmed into the Capital Improvement Program, some of which may be constructed concurrently with new development projects in the northeastern portion of the city. The 2019 Potable Water Master Plan identified that no additional storage is required to meet the future storage requirements, due in part to conservation measures and expansion of CMWD’s recycled water system. Analysis of how the Housing Element rezone program (approved January 30, 2024) affects the Water Distribution Services performance standard at buildout is included in Exhibit 11 of the Planning Commission Staff Report, dated October 18, 2023, for the Housing Element Implementation and Public Safety Element Update. June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 43 of 44 Exhibit 2 City Council Memorandum, dated April 18, 2024 (on file in the Office of the City Clerk) June 25, 2024 Item #10 Page 44 of 44 From:Council Internet Email To:City Clerk Subject:FW: 6/25/2024 Item #10: FY 2022-23 GMP Monitoring Report - legally deficient Date:Monday, June 24, 2024 8:53:18 AM From: Steve Linke <splinke@gmail.com> Sent: Monday, June 24, 2024 2:01 AM To: Council Internet Email <council@carlsbadca.gov> Subject: 6/25/2024 Item #10: FY 2022-23 GMP Monitoring Report - legally deficient Carlsbad City Council: You are being asked to adopt a resolution finding that the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program (GMP) Monitoring Report "satisfies the city's monitoring requirements." This finding does not reflect reality. This is the eighth consecutive annual GMP Monitoring Report, starting with the initial Fiscal Year 2015-16 report, that has failed to present the required monitoring of pedestrian, bicycle, and transit multimodal level of service (MMLOS). This report DOES NOT SATISFY THE CITY'S LEGAL MONITORING REQUIREMENTS and should be rejected! Year after year, staff makes the same empty promise that the MMLOS monitoring will be presented "within a year" or "later this year" as a supplemental report. How long are they going to be allowed to continue doing this? It is a clear violation of the GMP. Two years ago (7/12/2022 Item #15), I appeared before you as Vice Chair of the traffic commission after we voted to urge council to take action to compel staff to do MMLOS monitoring. However, even though this was a known topic for the council meeting, I was rebuffed by the City Attorney, because MMLOS was not included within the agenda item prepared by staff. Councilmember Acosta cited the minutes from the traffic commission meeting, in which Transportation Director Frank said his department was working diligently on MMLOS, and that he expected completion within 6 to 12 months, but here we are two more years later--still with no monitoring. Here is a brief history with actual text related to MMLOS monitoring extracted from the last eight GMP Monitoring Reports. FY 2015-16 Measuring the performance of non-vehicle modes of travel is a new requirement for the All Receive - Agenda Item #____ For the Information of the: CITY COUNCIL Date: ______ CA____ CC____ CM____ ACM____ DCM (3)____ 10 6/24/24 x xxxx city...Following the adoption of the General Plan and the new MMLOS standard, city staff immediately began the process of revising the MMLOS method...The revised MMLOS method is expected to be completed within next 12 months; therefore, this report does not include [MMLOS] for the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes. FY 2016-17 This report does not include circulation facility adequacy analysis...New traffic and mobility monitoring methodologies are being defined in the Evaluation and Monitoring (E&M) Manual that was under development at the time this report was being prepared. The E&M Manual is expected to be completed in the Summer of 2018...monitoring results are expected to be available shortly after the E&M Manual is finalized. FY 2017-18 Linke note: No MMLOS data was reported. FY 2018-19 Staff will initiate a task order with a consultant to update and revise the pedestrian, bicycle and transit MMLOS methodologies...Once the refined MMLOS Tool has been applied to the bicycle and pedestrian travel modes (and possibly to the transit travel mode) of the FY 2018-19 street typologies, staff will report those MMLOS results to the City Council later this year. FY 2019-20 Staff will finalize the updates to the pedestrian, bicycle and transit MMLOS methodologies...Once City Council has approved the refined MMLOS Tool, staff will apply it to the city streets monitored in FY 2019-20 and present the MMLOS results to City Council later this year. FY 2020-21 [S]taff will update the MMLOS methodologies, apply the revised MMLOS Tool on the street typologies for the FY 2020-21 GMP Monitoring Report, and then return to the Traffic & Mobility Commission to present the updated MMLOS monitoring results... The Traffic and Mobility Commission considered this item on June 6, 2022...[and voted to]...Appoint Vice-Chair Linke to represent the Traffic & Mobility Commission at the City Council meeting to speak to the commission’s concerns for the need for multimodal level of service monitoring. Linke note: This topic was then not included on the council agenda, so the City Attorney would not allow any action to be taken, nor did council vote to put it on a future agenda. FY 2021-22 Staff will continue to work with the Traffic & Mobility Commission to finalize the update and revise the pedestrian, bicycle and transit MMLOS methodologies and report the MMLOS results...The status of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit travel modes will be reported separately in Summer 2023... FY 2022-23 The FY 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report is being presented to City Council with the status of the Vehicular LOS Standard, but not the status of the other modes because the proposed draft MMLOS methodology for those modes is still being vetted and has not been approved by City Council. Staff will present the FY2022- 23 draft MMLOS analysis, including the proposed draft methodology developed by the Traffic Safety and Mobility Commission subcommittee, and the draft findings and recommendations, to City Council as a separate item later this year. Despite all of the above promises over the last eight years--no MMLOS has ever been reported. A few weeks ago, I read excerpts from the October 2023 Superior Court Judge's order on a GMP enforcement lawsuit against the city, which read, in part: The city has, in practice, taken the position that if…roads and intersections become too congested to meet the…[Growth Management] performance standard…then [they] can modify the…standard and/or choose to exempt any [streets] that do not meet [it]. The court doubts that this is what the citizens had in mind when they voted to approve [Growth Management]... The court believes that the city is not adhering to the spirit of Growth Management…From the court's perspective, the city has implemented a purported growth management plan that is largely illusory because the city simply changes the plan or exempts itself from compliance whenever it cannot comply. The lack of enforcement of the MMLOS monitoring requirement was not really a topic in that trial, but it is certainly consistent with the city's attitude that it can just ignore any rules or policies that it does not care to follow or enforce. It's all illusory. Best regards, Steve Linke Carlsbad splinke@gmail.com CAUTION: Do not open attachments or click on links unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. FY 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report Eric Lardy, City Planner Community Development Department June 25, 2024 1 INTRODUCTION •Annual report required by Municipal Code •Zoning Code Section 21.90.130(d) •Provide status on Performance standards to ensure public facilities are provided concurrent with growth •State Laws and Resolutions suspended portions of Growth Management Program 2 PUBLIC FACILITY STATUS Public Facility FY 2022-23 compliance Public Facility FY 2022-23 compliance Admin Yes Circulation (vehicle)Yes Library Yes Drainage Yes Fire Yes Sewer Yes Schools Yes Water Yes Parks Yes Wastewater Yes Open Space Yes 3 RECOMMENDED ACTION •Support staff’s recommendation to: –Receive and file the Fiscal Year 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report, prepared pursuit to Carlsbad Municipal Code (CMC 21.9.130) 4 FY 2022-23 Growth Management Program Monitoring Report Eric Lardy, City Planner Community Development Department June 25, 2024 5 CIRCULATION: MULTIMODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE (MMLOS) •MMLOS still being vetted and has not been approved by City Council •Staff to present the FY 2022-23 draft MMLOS analysis, findings, and recommendations to City Council later this year •Ensure City Council and stakeholders fully understand the proposed MMLOS methodology •Facilitate discussions on potential revisions to the MMLOS methodology and policies within the General Plan Mobility Element and Growth Management Plan 6 GROWTH MANAGEMENT CITIZENS COMMITTEE •Advisory citizens committee formed March 2022 •Mission to identify key elements of new plan to management growth •Committee recommendations presented to City Council in July 2023 •Recommendations include revisions to current facility standards •Staff preparing implementation program for City Council consideration 7 IMPACT OF STATE LAW •SB 166 and SB 330 •Prohibits residential growth moratoriums •Prohibits residential growth caps •GMP utilizes both as limits to help ensure the provision of adequate public facilities •Per HCD, these limits are unenforceable 8 IMPACT OF STATE LAW •Gov. Code 65583(a)(3) •Requires Housing Element Sites Inventory that achieves RHNA •Must accommodate RHNA at all times throughout the housing cycle •Per HCD, GMP caps cannot prevent consistency with inventory •City Council Resolution Nos. 2020-208 and 2021-074 9 DWELLING UNIT STATUS – FY 2022-23 Quadrant Existing units As of June 30, 2023 Prop E Caps NW 12,781 15,370 NE 7,460 9,042 SW 10,274 12,859 SE 16,488 17,328 Total 47,003 54,599 10 PARKS STATUS - FY 2022-23 Quadrant Existing Inventory Park Acres Current Park Acres Required by Standard Buildout Park Acres Required NW 131.7 96.3 117.6 NE 68.7 56.4 67.7 SW 93.6 76 90.1 SE 138.3 122.6 129.6 Total 432.4 351.2 404.9 11 CURRENT STANDARD Fifteen percent of the total land area in the zone [Local Facility Management Zone] exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land must be set aside for permanent open space and must be available concurrent with development. OPEN SPACE “GOAL” #Category % of Total City Land 1 Protection of natural Resources 29.5% 2 Managed production of resources 1.3% 3 Outdoor recreation 4.7% 4 Aesthetic, cultural and educational purposes 2.4% CURRENT OPEN SPACE TOTAL 38 % SEPARATE OPEN SPACE CATEGORIES #Category 1 Protection of natural resources 2 Managed production of resources 3 Outdoor recreation 4 Aesthetic, cultural and educational purposes WHY DOESN’T STANDARD APPLY TO ALL ZONES? •City Council determination in 1986 •Standard applied to areas where future master plans anticipated •Not applied to developed areas •Not applied where development or master plan already approved