HomeMy WebLinkAboutMP 177R; Aviara Planning Area 23; Master Plan (MP) (2)AVIARA COMMERCIAL SITE
DEMAND ANALYSES
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
AVIARA COMMERCIAL SITE DEMAND ANALYSES
Prepared for:
AVIARA LAND ASSOCIATES
July 1996
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
721 Kimberly Avenue, Placentia, CA 92670-6300 (714) 524-1000 FAX (714) 524-0149
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
I INTRODUCTION 1
II SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 4
III BACKGROUND DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS 6
Consumer Support Base 6
Existing Retail Facilities 8
Future Retail Development 10
Anchor Stores , 11
IV TAXABLE RETAIL SALES ANALYSIS 31
V OVERALL RETAIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISONS... 46
Apparel Stores 47
Restaurants.. 50
Furniture and Appliances 52
Specialty Foods and Liquor Stores 53
Other Specialty Shops 53
Finance Tenants 54
Personal Services 55
Other Professional Offices 56
Cinema 56
Home Improvement Sector 56
Tenant Potential Summary 57
EXHIBIT
I-l Site Area Location Map 3
III-l Aviara Retail Site Trade Area Boundaries Map 15
III-2 Population Sunmiary - Aviara Retail Site
Carlsbad, Califomia 2-Mile Ring 16
in-3 Map of Existing Shopping Centers
Two-Mile and Extended Trade Areas 17
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXHIBIT PAGE
III-4 Existing Shopping Centers - July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity 18
III-5 Map of Retail Centers Under Construction and Proposed
Carlsbad and Vicinity 22
III-6 Retail Sites Under Construction and Proposed - July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity 23
III-7 Map of Existing Anchor Tenants
Two-Mile and Extended Trade Areas 28
III- 8 Existing Anchor Tenants - July 1996
2.0-Mile, 3.75-Mile and Extended Trade Areas 29
IV- 1 Taxable Retail Sales by Store Type
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 38
IV-2 Taxable Retail Sales by Store Type
(City as a Percentage of County)
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 39
IV-3 Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita by Store Type
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 40
IV-4 Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment by Store Type
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 41
IV-5 Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita and Per Establishment
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 42
IV-6 Taxable Retail Sales Flows
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 43
IV-7 Taxable Retail Sales Flows
City of Carlsbad, Califomia 44
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXHIBIT PAGE
IV-8 Inflow < Outflow > of Taxable In-Store Retail Sales 45
APPENDIX
A Retail Sales Tax Data 60
B Demand Analyses 95
111
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
This report describes the results of an investigation of the market feasibility of
developing a 9-acre neighborhood shopping center at a site in the Aviara project located
as shown on the map in Exhibit I-L Methodologies involved in the preparation of this
analysis included review of current and future population in the primary trade area
appropriate to the subject site to define consumer support for a neighborhood shopping
center. In addition, current and projected future population of a broader definition of
the consumer support base (an extended trade area) were also investigated in order to
provide a larger matrix in which to define the competitive environment appropriate to a
shopping center at the subject site.
A field analyst from Alfred Gobar Associates conducted a comprehensive audit
of existing and future retail development within the primary competitive trade area
pertinent to the subject site. The field inventory also included a tabulation of existing
and future retail development (shopping centers only) outside the boundaries of the
primary trade area appropriate to the subject site but close enough to exercise some
degree of competitive influence on the edges of the primary trade area for the subject
property.
Existing relationships of consumer support and competitive inventory were
investigated in depth with regard to the potential for a neighborhood shopping center at
the Aviara site. Projections of population to buildout of the primary trade area as well
as the extended area were compared with existing and future retail development
(primarily in terms of anchor stores) in the larger trade area considered.
Other data included for analysis addresses the intra-regional flows of consumer
expenditure potential among Northern San Diego County cities - Carlsbad, Encinitas,
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Vista, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Escondido. This analysis is useful for establishing
a sense of perspective about the role of City of Carlsbad's retail sector in the larger
competitive environment of Northern San Diego County. It is useful for understanding
Carlsbad's dominant commercial role in Northeastem San Diego County's retail sector.
The subject property is one mile east of Interstate 5. It is currently accessible
from Poinsettia Lane which extends west from the subject site or by Alga Road
extending south. Access to most of the geographic area that would ordinarily constitute
the trade area for a neighborhood shopping center at the subject property is limited to
the north and the east because of lack of arterials. Plans are currently under review to
extend Alga Road north to the intersection of College Boulevard and Palomar Airport
Road. This new connector road will be renamed Aviara Parkway. Its completion is
expected within the next two to three years.
Poinsettia Lane will be extended east to a future Melrose Drive extension
crossing El Camino Real. The eastem extension of Poinsettia Lane will involve several
phases - Phase I of which will likely span from Aviara Parkway to El Camino Real.
Phase I constmction is expected to be completed within the next three years.
The Aviara information building currently occupies a portion of the site. Site
visibility from Poinsettia Lane, Alga Road (future Aviara Parkway), and other access
routes in the area is restricted by significant elevation differences.
The Batiquitus Lagoon restricts access to retail facilities in the Aviara project
from the south. Industrial areas and Palomar Airport currently restrict access to the
subject site from the north. These characteristics define a site with limited regional
access north and south and relatively poor visibility in terms of its elevation above
surrounding streets.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER II
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. The 1996 population of the primary trade area most applicable to the subject
site, located as shown on the map in Exhibit I-l (Chapter I) - 11,153 persons -
is expected to grow to 26,590 persons with the buildout of all of the
undeveloped residential land located within the primary trade area. This
population base is highly affluent in terms of average per capita income and
represents a stable source of consumer support for high-quality merchants.
2. The existing inventory of retail floor space located within two miles of the
subject property (the boundaries of a typical trade area for a neighborhood
shopping center) is 589,294 square feet, or approximately 53 square feet of
gross leasable area per capita population in the primary trade area. A more
typical relationship for this type of retail floor space is a ratio of about 22 to 28
square feet per capita. The support base for many of the retail facilities located
within the primary trade area (the two-mile ring), however, is significantly
more extensive - extending at least two miles beyond the locations of these
centers. A more sophisticated analysis assigns a competitive weight to existing
and future retail floor space on the basis of the quality of the merchants and the
distance between the center and the centroid of the primary trade area.
3. Application of this more sensitive analysis technique to the primary trade area in
light of the existing competition suggests that the weighted competitive supply
of supermarket and dmg store gross leasable area in the existing inventory is
ample relative to existing and projected consumer support potential, leaving an
inadequate margin of underexploited demand to support either a supermarket or
a dmg store anchor for a neighborhood shopping center at the subject property.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
This analysis indicates that at buildout, the horizon population of the primary
trade area will fall below the level necessary to generate enough incremental
support to justify either a supermarket or dmg store anchor for a neighborhood
shopping center at the subject site.
The population horizon at residential buildout supports potential to develop an
additional 325,000 square feet of gross leasable area (GLA) of retail store space
to serve the trade area population base pertinent to the subject site. A distance-
adjusted projection of new retail floor area exposed to residents of the primary
trade area because of overlapping trade areas is 447,980 square feet of GLA.
The increase in competitive inventory of GLA will be in centers with trade areas
that include part of the primary trade area for the subject site- Encinitas Ranch
Town Center, Carlsbad Company Stores, expansion of La Costa Plaza, and a
potential new center (Sunny Creek Plaza north of College Boulevard on El
Camino Real). Visible future supply exceeds the build-out level of future
demand by 122,980 square feet or 37.8 percent.
Based on a supply and demand analysis of retail floor space in the trade area
appropriate to the subject site and in light of the strength of Carlsbad's retail
sector - retail sales at twice the level compatible with the City's population base
- there does not appear to be a need nor a feasible opportunity to develop the
subject property for retail uses. It is unlikely that a center at this location would
measurably increase the City of Carlsbad's capture of taxable retail sales.
Because of the proliferation of existing and proposed new retail development
within the primary trade area and on its boundaries, residents of the primary
trade area will be exposed to a rich inventory of alternative shopping
opportunities located well within the typical shopper trip parameters for the
types of goods offered.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER III
BACKGROUND DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS
Consumer Support Base
Exhibit III-l delineates the boundaries of the primary trade area that would
generate virtually all the consumer support for a conventional neighborhood shopping
center at the Aviara site. A conventional neighborhood center in an urban area is
typically anchored by a supermarket and/or dmg store and draws virtually all of its
support from a trade area extending approximately two miles from the site. Empirical
studies based on thousands of shopper intercept interviews have found that 80.0 percent
of the support for a typical supermarket is drawn from residential areas within
approximately 1.5 miles of the shopping center site. The primary trade area relevant to
the subject property (the two-mile trade area shown on the map in Exhibit III-l),
therefore, is likely to be the source of virtually all consumer support potential for a
supermarket anchor of a neighborhood shopping center at the Aviara site. Also shown
on the map in Exhibit III-l is the boundary of the extended trade area. Relatively little,
if any, net support for a neighborhood shopping center at the subject site would be
drawn from the portions of the extended trade area more than two miles from the
subject site. Shopping centers in this portion of the extended trade area, however, do
have a competitive influence on the subject site because of the overlap of their
respective primary trade areas.
Exhibit III-2 is a sunmiary of current socio-demographic data for each trade
area. In 1996, the primary trade area (the two-mile ring) constitutes 37.5 percent of
the population of the entire extended trade area population. Much of the population
growth in the extended trade area has been in the portions of the extended trade area
outside the boundaries of the two-mile primary trade area.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Population in the primary trade area is expected to increase from 11,153
persons in 1996 to 26,590 when all residential land in the trade area is built out. The
comparable increase in the population of the extended trade area is from 29,775 (in
1996) to 65,430 at full buildout of residential land in the area.
Site area households are smaller than typical of all households in San Diego
County. Site area residents have above-average per capita personal income. As
shown, average per capita income in the prunary trade area in 1996 ($30,277 per capita
per year) is well above the comparable figure for San Diego County. Average per
capita income in the entire extended trade area ($31,284 per capita per year) in 1996 is
even higher. Although consumer retail purchases tend to be income inelastic (higher
income households do not spend as large a percentage of their income on retail
purchases as lower income households), a higher level of affluence implies an above-
average level of retail expenditure. An indication of differential retail expenditure
potential per capita as a function of income for per capita income of $18,850 and
$30,500 per year is shown below:
Multiplier
Per Capita Income $18,850 $30,500 1.62
Annual Per Capita In-Store
Retail Purchases:
Apparel* $329 $450 1.37
Furniture and Appliances* 300 442 1.47
Food at Home** 1,580 1,785 1.13
Restaurants* 801 1,295 1.62
Dmg Store* 135 151 1.12
•Taxable.
**Taxable and Non Taxable.
A consumer with $30,500 per year income spends only 13.0 percent more in
food stores than a consumer with $18,850 a year income. Restaurant expenditure tends
to be congment with income. Higher income residents are more potent support for
restaurants than lower income consumers on a one-to-one ratio.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Expenditures for the two key categories of retail activity associated with a
successful neighborhood shopping center (supermarkets and dmg stores) are
characterized by below-average income elasticity. A 62.0 percent higher income
results in only about 12.0 or 13.0 percent higher expenditures. The high per capita
income of the primary trade area population, therefore, does not significantly increase
its ability to support the key anchor stores for a typical neighborhood shopping center.
As illustrated in Exhibit III-2, an above-average proportion of the households in
both the primary trade area and the extended trade area are homeowners. Homeowners
tend to be relatively more stable support for retail facilities than renters because of
lower tumover.
The population bases in the two trade area definitions are above-average support
for retailers within the trade area, but not to the degree that might be anticipated on the
basis of their high per capita income.
Existing Retail Facilities
The map in Exhibit III-3 shows the location of existing shopping centers in the
area surrounding the subject site. Each center is described in Exhibit III-4.
The largest existing center in the survey area is Poinsettia Village located at Site
1 approximately one mile from the Aviara site. The center has freeway visibility and
excellent access. Anchor stores include Ralph's with 45,481 square feet and Payless
Dmg with 21,712 square feet. Not all the center is devoted to retail use - 18,000
square feet of space is occupied by Calvary Chapel - a chapel, school, and bookstore.
The center also includes almost 10,000 square feet of office space. Vacancy rate is a
low 2.7 percent in the retail components of the center.
Plaza Paseo Real, located at Site 2, is a 147,261-square-foot center anchored by
a 45,441-square-foot Vons and an Edwards Theatre six-plex (22,732 square feet). This
center had a vacancy rate of 4.8 percent at the time of the survey.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
The high vacancy rate (25.0 percent) in the shopping center located at Site 3
(West Bluff Plaza) may be a function of its age. It was developed in 1980, expanded in
1982, and renovated in 1987. Additional renovation work is currently underway in the
hope of improving occupancy rate in this unanchored center. Typically, strip centers
larger than about 20,000 square feet with no anchor are characterized by above-average
vacancy rates.
Other retail development within the two-mile trade area - 244,593 square feet of
fully occupied freestanding retail facilities - includes Price Club.
Vacancy rate overall in the 589,294 square feet of existing retail floor space in
the two-mile primary trade area surtounding the Aviara site was 23,287 square feet at
the time of the survey - 3.95 percent. Half the vacant space is in West Bluff Plaza,
The two existing shopping centers located outside the boundaries of the primary
trade area pertinent to the Aviara property but close enough to exercise a competitive
influence include La Costa Plaza with 38,618 square feet and Plaza de la Costa Real
with 97,062 square feet. La Costa Plaza had a vacancy rate of 58.9 percent at the time
of the survey. It is being vacated to make way for its conversion to a larger shopping
center to be anchored by a major supermarket.
Plaza de la Costa Real includes 46,932 square feet of office space in addition to
97,062 square feet of retail floor space. Vacancy rate in the retail portion of this
project was 16.7 percent at the time of the survey. This center is anchored by a
31,524-square-foot Vons.
Overall vacancy rate in the 135,680 square feet of retail floor space represented
by these two centers is currently 28.69 percent. The relatively high vacancy rate even
in the Plaza de la Costa Real suggests the hypothesis that this market area may be
moderately overbuilt in retail floor space currently.
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Future Retail Development
The map in Exhibit III-5 identifies the locations of future retail development in
the area surtOunding the subject site. These projects are described in Exhibit III-6.
The most significant retail project curtently under constmction in the competitive area
surtounding the Aviara site is Encinitas Ranch Town Center. The initial phase of this
project (430,000 square feet) is now under constmction. It is scheduled for completion
in October 1996. The center is located outside the boundaries of the extended trade
area. Because of its strong combination of anchor stores, however (Target,
Albertson's, and Sports Authority), its effective trade area will overlap the southeastem
portions of the primary trade area appropriate to a hypothetical neighborhood center at
the subject site.
A second phase of the Encinitas Ranch Town Center has been approved. When
developed. Phase II elements in this shopping center will increase the center's overall
size to 539,031 square feet, giving it considerable anchor effect - an effective trade area
with a radius in excess of three miles.
Other approved retail projects listed in Exhibit III-6 include a 12,200-square-
foot expansion of the existing Price Club. The new floor area will be used for
merchandise lines that compete with neighborhood shopping center stores - a meat
market and bakery and possibly a pharmacy.
Other projects in planning include Green Valley located at Site D on the map in
Exhibit III-5. This project is expected to have a community (versus neighborhood)
retail orientation. Given the scale of the Encinitas Ranch Town Center, fiimre
development of Green Valley may be somewhat tenuous.
Project E - the Carlsbad Company Stores - is a 300,000-square-foot shopping
center planned for development near the LEGOLAND visitor attraction in the
northwest quadrant of the primary trade area surrounding the subject site. Although
this center's tenant mix will be largely oriented to visitors, it will constitute a
10
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
competitive influence in terms of weakening the small shop or in-line tenant potential
for a center at the subject site.
Proposed developments include a 17-acre neighborhood shopping center to be
developed at Site F northeast of the boundary of the primary and extended trade areas
on El Camino Real. This project, if developed, will be close enough to the subject site
to share overlapping trade areas. It, therefore, represents a minor degree of
competition. The overlapping trade areas, however, will be in the portion of the
subject property's primary trade which has relatively little population.
La Costa Plaza is proposed for development at Site G approximately two miles
from the subject property. This neighborhood center will be developed by conversion
of the existing La Costa Plaza (38,618 square feet) to a more typical neighborhood
shopping center scale.
Approximately 120,000 square feet of additional retail floor space is planned for
development at Site H near Poinsettia Village. Tenant mix at this center is expected to
be oriented to travel-related services which are anticipated to have relatively little direct
competitive impact on a potential neighborhood shopping center at the subject site.
Other retail development being discussed for locations in this area include a
possible shopping center to be located at Site I on Palomar Airport Road approximately
one mile north of the Aviara parcel and a tenuous development proposed for Site J
located approximately one mile north of the boundary of the primary trade area for the
subject site. The other project listed in Exhibit III-6 is located on the map at Site K -
four miles north of the Aviara parcel. It is, therefore, of no competitive significance.
Anchor Stores
The map in Exhibit III-7 shows the locations of existing anchor stores in the
area surrounding the subject parcel. The location of anchor stores relative to a site
being considered for retail development is an important constraint to the market
11
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
feasibility of anchor stores at the proposed shopping center. Supermarket anchors
located as much as 3.75 miles from the site of a proposed center can have some
competitive impact in terms of the overlap of their respective trade areas.
A summary of the supermarket anchors in the surtounding area and their
weighted effective competitive impact on the potential for a supermarket anchor at the
subject site is shown below:
Size Competitive Distance from Site Distance Weighted Competitive
Competitor (Sq. Ft) Weight (Miles) Factor Effective (Sq. Ft.)
Ralphs 45,481 1.30 1.1 0.65 38,430
Vons 46,800 1.44 1.7 0.46 31,000
Hadley Orchards 17,289 0.88 1.6 0.52 7,200
Vons 31,524 1.44 2.4 0.28 12.710
Total 89,340
Existing competitors (for the moment discounting the impact of Price Club)
represent approximately 89,340 square feet of competitively effective supermarket floor
area expressed in terms of "average" competitive effectiveness in terms of potential
competition to a hypothetical supermarket at the subject neighborhood shopping center
site.
Future retail development in the area is expected to introduce several additional
supermarket competitors. An estimate of their future weighted competitive
effectiveness with regard to a hypothetical supermarket at the subject site is shown
below:
Competitor
Size
(Sq. Ft)
Competitive
Weight
Distance from Site
(Miles)
Distance
Factor
Weighted Competitive
Effective (Sq. Ft.)
Albertsons 50,320 1.10 3.4 0.10 5,550
Green Valley No Impact ---
Sunny Creek 15,000 1.00 2.6 0.22 3,300
La Costa Plaza 50,000 1.00 2.3 0.35 17.500
Total
Combined Total
26,350
115,690
12
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
The weighted competitive efficiency of existing and proposed supermarkets and
their theoretical impact on a hypothetical supermarket at the subject property is
equivalent to 116,000 square feet of gross leasable area.
Adding 50,000 square feet to represent a supermarket at the subject site
increases the weighted effective competitive level of supermarket anchor stores within
the primary trade area to 165,690 square feet. In order to achieve an average sales
volume in terms of 1995-96 prices of $450 a square foot (including a supermarket at
the subject site), aggregate available consumer expenditure potential represented by
residents of the primary trade needs to be $74,560,500 a year. This level of
expenditure implies a primary trade area population of 41,771 persons ($74,560,500
$1,785 = 41,771). Projected population of the primary trade area at buildout (the
primary trade area is essentially coterminous with the City of Carlsbad Southwest
Planning Area) is 26,590 persons.
Even if none of the fiiture projects actually come to fruition, the primary trade
area population necessary to support market feasibility for a 50,000-square-foot
supermarket at the subject site is 35,128 persons as follows:
Existing Weighted Competitive Supermarket Floor Area 89,340 Sq. Ft.
Supermarket at the Subject Site 50.000 Sq. Ft.
Total 139,340 Sq. Ft.
Aggregate Annual Sales Target (at $450 per Square Foot) $62,703,000
Annual Supermarket Expenditure ($1,785 Per Capita)
Required Primary Trade Area Population 35,128
The key component to support feasibility of a conventional neighborhood
shopping center at the Aviara site (viable supermarket anchor potential), therefore, is
not a reasonable probability, creating considerable doubt about the practical potential to
develop the site with a supermarket-anchored conventional neighborhood shopping
center. This determination makes no allowance for the 15.0 percent erosion in net
13
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
support potential represented by the proximity of the Price Club and also with no
allowance for the 5.0 percent of food and related purchases that are made in non
supermarket food stores - convenience stores, etc. These two adjustments increase the
required threshold population levels by 23.8 percent.
A parallel analysis of the potential for a dmg store to be a feasible anchor tenant
(dmg stores are not nearly as effective anchors for neighborhood centers as
supermarkets) defines the required threshold population in the primary trade area as
nearly 50,000 persons as follows:
Major Drug - Payless 21,712 Sq. Ft.
Competitive Weight 1.25
Effective Size 26,705 Sq. Ft.
Distance from Subject Site 1.1 Miles
Distance Impact Coefficient .675
Weighted Competitive Effective Floor Space 17,359 Sq. Ft.
Add Major Drug at Subject Site (20,000 Sq. Ft.)
Total Competitive Effective Inventory 37,359 Sq. Ft.
Trade Area Sales Target at $200 Per Sq. Ft. Per Year $7,471,748
Required Trade Area Population (Average Per Capita
Expenditureof $151 Per Year) 49,482
F:\APPS\WORDDlR\RRTAVlAR\Augllsl 5, 199«D
14
BENCHMARK: POPULATION SUMMARY
Carlsbad, CA: Aviara Retail Site
2 Mile Ring
EXHIBIT III-2 Urban Decision Systenfis, Inc.
07/02/96
2 Mile Ring Ext. Trade Area San Diego County
POPULATION 2001 Projection 12,085 32,726 2,722,687
1996 Estimate 11.153 29.775 2,658,363
1990 Census 9,895 25,907 2,498.016
1980 Census 5,394 13,526 1.813,519
% 90-96 Change 12.7% 14.9% 6.4%
% 80-90 Change 83.4% 91.5% 37.7%
In Group Qtrs 1996 432 669 114,883
HOUSEHOLDS 2001 Projection 5,250 13,064 894,229
1996 Estimate 4,974 12,190 903,370
1990 Census 4.462 10,740 887,403
1980 Census 2,210 5,190 670.086
% 90-96 Change 11.5% 13.5% 1.8%
% 80-90 Change 101.9% 106.9% 32.4%
FAMILIES 1996 2,966 8,053 595.777
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1996 2.16 2.39 2.82
RACE 1996 White 91.0% 90.6% 73.3%
Black 1.3% 1.4% 6.5%
Amer. Indian 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
Asian/PI 4.0% 4.9% 9.5%
Other 3.3% 2.8% 9.9%
HISPANIC ORIGIN 1996 9.6% 7.5% 23.1%
MEDIAN AGE 1996 39.76 37.63 32.45
OCCUPATION White Collar 77.2% 80.4% 63.4%
1990 Blue Collar 22.8% 19.6% 36.6%
INCOME 1996 Per Capita $30,277 $31,284 $18,851
Median Household $50,231 $56,476 $42,035
Average Household $67,113 $76,011 $54,034
$ 0-14,999 10.1% 8.4% 14.5%
$15,000-24.999 11.6% 9.7% 13.9%
$25,000-34,999 10.5% 9.0% 12.3%
$35,000-49,999 17.5% 15.9% 18.4%
$50,000-74,999 23.1% 24.1% 20.5%
$75,000-99.999 12.3% 13.7% 9.7%
$100,000-149,999 9.2% 13.3% 7.3%
$150,000+ 5.6% 5.9% 3.3%
Median Family $57,539 $65,210 $48,257
Average Family $74,809 $87,236 $62,808
TENURE 1996 Owner Households 69.9% 74.0% 54.4%
Renter Households 30.1% 26.0% 45.6%
Source: 1990,1990 Census, March 15,1996 UDS EsHmates
Urban Decision Systems Inc. / 4676 Admiralty Way Ste 624 / Marina del Rey, CA 90292 / (800) 633-9568
16
(XP1)
479966
EXHIBIT III-4
EXISTING SHOPPING CENTERS
JULY 1996
CARLSBAD AND VICINITY
Map
No.
Square Footage
Name/Location Total Vacant
Number
of Shops Comments
Two-Mile Trade Area
Poinsettia Village
S.W. corner 1-5 and
Poinsettia Lane
Carlsbad
00
149,060
(Retail)
9,671
(Upstairs
Office)
4,091
1,071
32 No current lease rate available. Very attractive shopping center with
Mediterranean design features and above-average landscaping. Center
is provided freeway visibility with excellent freeway access. Anchor
tenants in the center include Ralphs (45,481 square feet) and Payless
Drug (21,712 square feet). Calvary Chapel is a quasi-anchor in the
center, occupying approximately 18,000 square feet of space for their
chapel, school, and book store. The center was originally opened in
1988 and remains in excellent condition. The barbell-shaped center
was developed on a 19-acre parcel which includes three freestanding
pad stores - Jack-in-the-Box, El Polio Loco, and Homefed Bank.
Excluded from the project totals is a two-story office building located in
the far southern section of the property, somewhat removed from the
retail stores. Center includes 9,671 square feet of upstairs office space
occupied by Allstate Insurance, State Farm Insurance, an escrow office,
mortgage broker, auto broker, and offices for a Christian fellowship.
Walk-up access to upstairs office space. Center includes a quasi-
outdoor food court area. A video store formerly occupied one of the
existing vacant units.
Exhibit III-4 (Cont'd)
Existing Shopping Centers
July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity
Page 2
Map
No.
Square Footage
Name/Location Total Vacant
Number
of Shops Comments
Plaza Paseo Real
N.W. corner Alga Road and
El Camino Real
Carlsbad
147,261 7,076 37 $1.75 to $2.00 per square foot triple net (triple net charges average
$0.42 per square foot). Very attractive Mediterranean-designed
shopping center. The center was opened in 1991 and remains in
excellent condition. Tenants are provided limited visibility from major
arterials. Poor parking layout and interior traffic circulation restricts the
competitiveness of this center. The center is anchored by Vons
(45,441 square feet) and Edwards Theatre (six-plex theater totaling
22,732 square feet). Center is developed on a 28-acre parcel with
drive-up access/parking to upper tier tenants (all stores are at grade
with parking). Center includes two privately-owned outparcels
eventually to be developed with a City library (library current occupies
5,738 square feet of in-line shop space) and a future post office facility
(located behind Vons). Physical vacancy in center to date totals 7,076
square feet including a 1,142-square-foot vacant unit currently serving
as an on-site management office. Brokers report availability totaling
closer to 9,000 square feet. Center provides 760 total parking spaces,
the majority isolated from high traffic retail tenants. One freestanding
pad store - Wells Fargo Bank (4,000 square feet).
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAimjuly 30, 1996\B
Exhibit III-4 (Cont'd)
Existing Shopping Centers
July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity
Page 3
Map
No. Name/Location
Square Footage
Total Vacant
Number
of Shops Comments
o
West Bluff Plaza
N.E. corner Alga Road and
Ei Camino Real
Carisbad
48,380
(Retail)
9,927
(Upstairs
Office)
12,120
0
17 $1.00 to $1.30 per square foot triple net; former rate for units with
limited exposure (triple net charges average $0.32 per square foot).
Older center originally developed in 1980, expanded in 1982, and
renovated in 1987. Additional renovation work is currently in progress
in hopes of reducing current vacancy rate. A total of 5,550 square feet
of existing retail vacancy is currently out for signature. Center also
includes 9,927 square feet of upstairs office space, all of which is fully
leased, including approximately 5,000 square feet of executive office
suites (only two small executive suites currently available). Upstairs
office units are quoted at a negotiable rate of $1.25 per square foot
triple net (triple net charges average $0.30 to $0.35 per square foot).
Walk-up office suites. Freestanding retail pads in the center include
Union Bank, World Savings, and Crazy Buro Mexican Restaurant. No
anchor tenants.
Retail Subtotals
Add Freestanding Retail
344,701
244.593
23,287
Q
(6.76 Percent Vacancy Rate)
Total Retail in 2.0-Mile
Trade Area 589,294 23,287 (3.95 Percent Overall Vacancy Rate)
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIR\JulY 30. 1996\B
Exhibit III-4 (Cont'd)
Existing Shopping Centers
July 1996
Carisbad and Vicinity
Page 4
Map
No.
Square Footage
Name/Location Total Vacant
Number
of Shops Comments
Expanded Trade Area
La Costa Plaza
N.E. corner El Camino Real
and La Costa Avenue
Carisbad
38,618
(Retail)
22,748
Plaza de la Costa Real
S.E. corner El Camino Real
and La Costa Avenue
Carlsbad
97,062 16,179
(Retail)
46,932 4,000
(Office)
30
Retail Subtotals 135,680 38,927
No applicable lease rate. Old, single-story retail center with separate
medical office complex. Retail leases in the center have not been
renewed upon expiration as part of the landowner's desire to sell this
property. The property is currently in escrow to a developer with plans
to develop a new retail center which will be anchored by a major
grocery store. The existing center was formeriy anchored by an 8,281-
square-foot market along with the former Pounders Restaurant.
Remaining tenants in the center include Bank of San Diego, Gerhard
Interiors, a women's clothing store, chiropractor, travel agent, post
office, and beauty salon. The center is provided excellent visibility and
access, although limited tenant identity in current configuration.
Existing buildings in the center are wood exterior with shake roofs.
$1.00 per square foot triple net (triple net charges average $0.23 per
square foot). Older retail and office center developed on a long and
narrow hillside land parcel which negates pedestrian travel throughout
center. Center is anchored by a 31,524-square-foot Vons. Older
center in good condition with good visibility and access. Center
includes three freestanding two-story office buildings along with
upstairs office space above retail. Current office availability includes
4,000 square feet of upstairs office space in the Bank of America
building on the immediate corner of El Camino Real and La Costa
Avenue. Latter space is available for rent at $1.25 per square foot
triple net (triple net charges average $0.35 per square foot) based on
the building's excellent exposure and elevator service. Bank of America
is negotiating to lease this upstairs office space. Upstairs office space
above retail is quoted at $0.75 per square foot full service. The center
has an attractive Mediterranean-design theme. Stores back to El
Camino Real.
(28.69 Percent Vacancy Rate)
Source: Field Survey by Alfred Gobar Associates.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIRUulv 30. 1996\B
EXHIBIT III-6
RETAIL SITES UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PROPOSED
JULY 1996
CARLSBAD AND VICINITY
Map
Ltr. Project/Location Agent/Applicant
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Anchors/Sq Ft.
Target 124,500
Albertsons 50,320
Sports Authority 42,000
Linen & Things 37,500
Office Depot 30,000
Ross 28,160
PetSmart 28,107
Comp USA 25,650
Barnes & Noble 25,000
Pier 1 8,501
Comments
Under Construction
Encinitas Ranch Town Center
S.W. corner El Camino Real
and Leucadia Blvd. Ext.
Encinitas
CB Commercial/
Zelman Retail Partners/
Caritas Company
430,000
Phase I
Large power center to total 539,031 square
feet at buildout. Phase I construction
(430,000 square feet) scheduled for
completion October 1996. Rental rates for
the limited in-line shop space is $1.50 to
$3.00 per square foot triple net depending
on visibility/exposure. Triple net charges
projected at $0.30 to $0.40 per square
foot. Center is under development on a
56.0-acre parcel (49.9 acres net). Overall
parking ratio is 5.01 spaces per 1,000
square feet of building area. Developer
was obligated to fund a portion of the
Leucadia Boulevard extension. Smaller
tenants already signed included Famous
Footwear (7,208 square feet). Blockbuster
(6,500 square feet), hair salon (3,000
square feet). Chilis (565 square feet), and
McDonalds (2,870 square feet). Center is
3.6 miles from subject site.
Total Under Construction 430,000
Exhibit III-6 (Cont'd)
Retail Sites Under Construction and Proposed
July 1 996
Carisbad and Vicinity
Page 2
Map
Ltr. Project/Location Agent/Applicant
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Anchors/Sq. Ft. Comments
Approved
Price Club Addition
951 Palomar Airport Road
Carisbad
Price Club 12,200 Planned expansion of existing store.
Expansion space will presumably be utilized
for a meat market, bakery, and/or
pharmacy, uses recently added to expand
product spectrum. Construction on
expansion space imminent.
Encinitas Ranch Town Center
S.W. corner El Camino Real and
Leucadia Blvd. Ext.
Encinitas
CB Commercial/
Zelman Retail Partners/
Caritas Company
109,031 Unknown
Phase II
Remaining buildout of major power center
currently under construction.
Total Approved 121,231
In Planning
Green Valley
West side El Camino Real,
South of Sierra Vista
Carisbad
Carlsbad Ltd. Partners/
Hunt Brothers
300,000 N.A. Large mixed-use project controlled by a
major Texas developer. The project's
approved master plan designates residential
development in the northeriy section of the
site with a major retail center in the
southern portions of the site. Retail tenants
will be more community (versus
neighborhood) oriented. No site plan
submitted to date. Site is 3.2 miles
southeast of subject site, immediately north
of Encinitas Ranch Town Center currently
under construction.
F:\APPS\TABLESVTRTAVAIR\August 30, 1996\B
Exhibit lil-6 (Cont'd)
Retail Sites Under Construction and Proposed
July 1996
Carisbad and Vicinity
Page 3
Map
Ltr. Project/Location Agent/Applicant
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Anchors/Sq. Ft. Comments
Ul
Carisbad Company Stores
East of Paseo Del Norte,
North of Palomar Airport Road
Carlsbad
Total in Planning
Proposed
Sunny Creek Plaza
East side El Camino Real,
North of College Boulevard
Carisbad
Stephen Craig 300,000 None
Russell Grosse Dev.
600,000
17.0
Acres
Major Market
Upscale outlet mail to be developed in one
phase. Center will target upscale retailers.
Project will target a regional audience
including out-of-area tourists. Project
nearing approval; site work already in
progress.
± 15,000 Long-awaited retail center to be anchored
by Major Market, a world-class gourmet
market similar to Harvest Ranch Market in
Encinitas. Property is zoned commercial,
however, developer will need to amend the
Specific Plan and submit a site plan for
approval. Developer is anticipating start of
construction by early 1997, however,
project has been idle for several years with
no signed leases. Site is 2.5 miles from
subject site.
La Costa Plaza
N.E. corner La Costa Avenue and
El Camino Real
Carlsbad
John Burnham & Co./
Unknown
N.A. Supermarket N/A Existing center is currently in escrow to a
developer with plans to raze existing
buildings and replace with new retail center
which will be anchored by an undisclosed
supermarket. New center is scheduled for
completion late 1997/eariy 1998; no site
plan has been submitted to date. Current
leases are not being renewed at expiration.
Center is predominantiy vacant. Center is
2.3 miles from subject site.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIRUuly 30, 1996\B
Exhibit 111-6 (Cont'd)
Retail Sites Under Construction and Proposed
July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity
Page 4
Map
Ltr. Project/Location Agent/Applicant
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Anchors/Sq. Ft. Comments
NJ
N.W. corner Poinsettia Lane and
Avenida Encinas
Carisbad
Poinsettia Properties 120,000 None
(Retail)
Retail Sites
I North side Palomar Airport Road
at College Boulevard
Carisbad
Unknown N.A. N.A.
Planned mixed-use development scheduled
to include 80,000 square feet of travel-
related service and commercial space in
Area #6 together with 40,000 square feet
of travel-related service and commercial
space in Area #1. Applicant has submitted
a Draft Specific Plan with RFP sent out of
an environmental impact report. The
project will also include 1,310 residential
dwelling units. AM/PM has already
committed to the corner parcel. Site is 1.2
miles from the subject site.
Targeted retail site currently zoned
industrial. One or more developers have
approached the City with hopes of
developing a retail center on the property.
The City Council is discouraging retail
development at this location to avoid a strip
commercial presence along this corporate
headquarters thoroughfare. A municipal
golf course facility is planned immediately
north of this location. Site is 1.1 miles
north of subject site.
S.E. corner El Camino Real and
Tamarack Avenue
Carisbad
Unknown N.A. N.A. Site formeriy targeted for small
neighborhood shopping center. Applicant
eventually withdrew plans for site; no new
applications to date. Site is 3.2 miles north
of subject site.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIR\July 30, 1996\B
Exhibit III-6 (Cont'd)
Retail Sites Under Construction and Proposed
July 1996
Carlsbad and Vicinity
Page 5
Map
Ltr. Project/Location Agent/Applicant
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Anchors/Sq. Ft. Comments
N.E. corner Elm Avenue and
Tamarack Avenue
Carisbad
Unknown N.A. N.A. Designed commercial site for General Plan.
No formal submittals to date. Site is 4.0
miles north of subject site.
Total Under Construction and Proposed 1,271,231
Sq. Ft.
+ 17.0
Acres
ro
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; Carisbad Planning Department; Encinitas Planning Department.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIR\July 30, 1996\B
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
EXHIBIT III-8
EXISTING ANCHOR TENANTS*
JULY 1996
2.0-MILE, 3.75-MILE AND EXTENDED TRADE AREAS
Distance From
Map Square Subject Site
No. Location Store Feet (Miles)
GROCERY STORES:
2.0-Mile Trade Area
G-1 S.W. corner 1-5 and Poinsettia Lane Ralphs 45,481 1.1
Carlsbad
G-2 6115 Paseo Del Norte Hadley Orchards 17,289 1.6
Carlsbad
G-3 N.W. corner Alga and El Camino Real Vons 46,800 1.7
Carlsbad
Total Grocery Stores Within 2.0-Mile Trade Area 109,570
2.0-Mile to Extended Trade Area
G-4 S.E. corner El Camino Real and Vons 31,524 2.4
La Costa Avenue, Carlsbad
Total Grocery Stores Within 2.0-Mile to Extended Trade Area 31,524
Extended to 3.75-Mile Trade Area
G-5 S.E. corner 1-5 and Tamarack Avenue Vons 22,477 3.7
Carlsbad
Total Grocery Stores Within Extended to 3.75-Mile Trade Area 22.477
DRUG STORES:
2.0-Mlle Trade Area
D-1 S.W. corner 1-5 and Poinsettia Lane Payless Drug 21,712 1.1
Carlsbad
Total Drug Stores Within 2.0-Mile Trade Area 21,712
2.0- to 3.75-Mile Trade Area
D-2 S.W. corner 1-5 and Poinsettia Lane Thrifty 21,735 3.7
Carlsbad
Total Drug Stores Within 2.0- to 3.75-Miie Trade Area 21,735
29
Exhibit lll-B (Cont'd)
Existing Anchor Tenants*
July 1996
2.0-Mile, 3.75-Mile and Extended Trade Areas
Page 2
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Map
No. Location Store
Distance From
Square Subject Site
Feet (Miles)
DEPARTMENT STORES:
2.0-Mile Trade Area
DT-1 951 Palomar Airport Road
Carlsbad
Price Club
Total Department Stores Within 2.0-Mile Trade Area
HOME IMPROVEMENT:
3.75-Mile Trade Area
H-1 S.E. corner Woodley Road and
El Camino Real, Encinitas
Home Depot
Total Home Improvement Within 3.75-Mile Trade Area
119,641
119,641
100,750
100.750
1.4
3.7
'Excludes the 430,000 square feet of retail anchors currently under construction at Encinitas
Ranch Town Center, 3.6 miles southeast of subject site.
Source: Field Survey by Alfred Gobar Associates.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAR\August 2, 1996\B
30
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER IV
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES ANALYSIS
Although not all retail sales are taxable - food items and some merchandise lines
sold in drug stores as well as many consumer services are not subject to the State sales
tax - the pattern of taxable in-store retail sales is an effective tool to evaluate the profile
of a community's retail sector. The Califomia State Board of Equalization publishes
fairly detailed reports dealing with sales tax collections for all counties and most major
cities in Califomia. Attenuated reports are published for smaller cities in order to
avoid disclosing confidential competitive information. Retail sales tax collections are
reported in terms of in-store retail sales tax collections as well as non-store taxable
retail sales. Non-store taxable retail sales include mail order sales, sales taxes collected
from final users of goods sold by manufacturers, etc. Industrial parks, for example,
sometimes generate substantial sales tax revenue (with no conventional retail stores as
tenants in the park) as a result of taxable sales at carpet warehouses, major fuel dealers,
sales to contractors, etc.
Exhibit IV-1 is a history of taxable in-store sales in the City of Carlsbad from
1985 through 1994 expressed in terms of constant 1994 dollars. The effect of the
recession is reflected in the decrease in constant dollar taxable sales in the City after
1989.
In 1994, however, as shown, taxable retail sales in Carlsbad were higher (on a
constant dollar basis) than in 1989 in several categories - apparel, general merchandise,
dmg stores, restaurants, furniture and appliance stores, service stations, and the
"other" miscellaneous category of retail stores.
Sales of building materials as well as auto sector-related retail sales in the City
have not recovered to their 1989 level.
31
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
A useful measure of the City of Carlsbad's relative strength in San Diego
County's retail market is its historical percentage share of total taxable sales by type of
store as a proportion of County wide totals. Exhibit IV-2 suggests that Carlsbad's retail
sector has performed relatively better than the retailers Countywide during the
recession. As a result, in 1994, Carlsbad's share of total taxable sales in the County
(5.03 percent) was the highest of any of the years tabulated. The retail sector in
Carlsbad is especially competitively efficient in terms of apparel and general
merchandise sales (reflecting the effect of Plaza Camino Real). The other major
contributor to Carlsbad's relative competitive strength is its auto sector.
One factor that might contribute to Carlsbad's increasing share of total taxable
retail sales in the County is change in population. If population in Carlsbad were
growing faster than population Countywide, retail merchants in the City would benefit
from an expanding consumer support base and the City's share of the County total
would increase. As illustrated in Exhibit IV-3, however, taxable retail sales per capita
of the City's population has been increasing since the low point in 1992. Carlsbad's
relative competitive strength in San Diego County's retail sector is due to the strength
of its merchants and not to increase in the size of the City's resident consumer support
base. In order to test this hypothesis in more detail, in-store taxable retail sales overall
on a per capita basis (based on the City of Carlsbad's population for the appropriate
years) compares with the comparable figure for San Diego County as a whole as
follows:
32
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Total In-Store Taxable Sales Per Capita
San Diego Carlsbad as a
Year Carlsbad County Ratio of County
1985 $12,752.59 $6,280.61 2.03
1986 12,312.48 6,689.22 1.84
1987 11,851.27 6,838.79 1.73
1988 11,972.10 6,880.96 1.74
1989 12,675.70 6,898.70 1.84
1990 12,184.21 6,550.25 1.86
1991 10,711.54 5,992.07 1.79
1992 10,366.40 5,942.04 1.74
1993 11,407.39 5,812.09 1.96
1994 11,630.41 5,812.40 2.00
Historically, taxable in-store retail sales per capita in the City of Carlsbad has
been considerably above average taxable in-store sales per capita of the entire
population of San Diego County - exceeding a ratio of 2:1 in 1985, following which
the ratio decreased to as low as 1.74:1 during the recession. In 1994, however, taxable
in-store retail sales per capita in Carlsbad was twice the average taxable in-store retail
sales per capita for the entire population of San Diego County.
Carlsbad's share of taxable sales Countywide, therefore (even after adjusting for
change in population), remains disproportionately high, implying considerable inflow
of consumer support for the City's retail merchants.
Average constant dollar taxable sales per establishment has decreased as an
increasing proportion of total retail sales activity in Carlsbad has gone to smaller stores.
These relationships are illustrated in Exhibit IV-4, showing a decline in average sales
volume per general merchandise outlet between 1985 and 1994 expressed in constant
1994 dollars. Average sales volume per establishment in dmg stores increased over
this interval. By 1994, however, average sales volume per store for dmg stores in
Carlsbad was below the comparable figures for the late 1980s.
A comparison of average sales volume per retail establishment in Carlsbad with
the Countywide averages is shown below:
1
I 33
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Average Sales Per Establishment in 1994 (000s)
San Diego Carlsbad as a
Retail Category Carlsbad County Percent of County
Apparel $ 627.48 $ 298.43 210.2
General Merchandise 9,719.36 4,384.27 221.7
Drug Stores 1,547.71 1,140.85 135.7
Food Stores 963.32 686.47 140.3
Restaurants 474.83 385.08 123.3
Furniture and Appliances 289.10 403.36 71.7
Building Materials 1,621.61 1,537.69 105.5
Auto Sector 9,934.90 1,756.13 565.7
Service Stations 1,918.79 1,843.46 104.1
Other 285.92 167.82 170.4
All 992.31 504.13 196.8
In all categories except one (furniture and appliances), merchants in Carlsbad
have higher average sales per establishment than is typical of all merchants in the same
category Countywide.
A key consideration with regard to understanding retail sales tax flows in a
specific city is the intra-regional transfer of consumer purchasing power from one city
to another. As illustrated in Exhibit IV-5, taxable retail sales per capita in Carlsbad in
1994 were higher than the comparable figures for the County or Southem Califomia as
a whole in most categories except fiimiture and appliance stores.
Based on average taxable sales per capita Statewide, it is possible to calculate
the theoretical potential level of taxable in-store sales for a specific city as an extension
of the City's population. This simplified calculation assumes average consumer
expendimre per capita is the same in all areas. It makes no provision for differential
income, age profiles, etc. It assumes that if the residents of a particular city spend in
retail stores at the same rate as the average expenditure per capita of all residents of the
State of Califomia, the in-store taxable retail sales potential in the City can be
estimated on the basis of the City's population. The calculations in Exhibit IV-6 for
Carlsbad and for San Diego County show that Countywide sales in 1994 were very
close to the estimate based on the Statewide sales per capita profile - a difference
34
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
between the actual and the estimated potential of less than 0.13 percent. With regard to
Carlsbad, however, taxable sales in 1994 exceeded the potential estimate based on
average per capita in-store taxable retail sales expenditures Statewide by almost 100.0
percent.
Another way of estimating taxable in-store sales potential for a specific city can
be based on the assumption that residents of the city on average spend the same as the
average per capita expenditure of all residents of the county in which the city is
located. As illustrated in Exhibit IV-7, retail sales potential for Carlsbad estimated on
this basis in 1994 was $382,399,000. Acmal reported sales in 1994 - in-store taxable
retail sales - was $790,868,000. The actual exceeded the estimate by 106.8 percent.
No taxable sales were reported for liquor stores. This is a convention of the State
Board of Equalization to avoid disclosing information that could be interpreted to yield
an estimate of sales for a particular store. Actual liquor store sales in Carlsbad in 1994
are included in the "other" retail category.
A similar inflow/outflow analysis can be applied to all cities located in the area
surrounding Carlsbad to estimate the source of inflow of consumer support to Carlsbad
as reflected in the theoretical calculation of an outflow of consumer support from
surrounding cities for specific merchandise lines. Comparable sales tax analyses for all
other cities in Northem San Diego County are included in Appendix A. A summary of
the inflows and outflows by city based on these data is included in Exhibit IV-8.
With the exception of liquor stores (which in this case reflects an artificial
classification) and sales in furniture and appliance stores, all categories of retail activity
in the City of Carlsbad in 1994 experienced theoretical inflow of consumer support.
The other community in the surrounding competitive area with significant broad-gauge
inflow of consumer support is Escondido. Carlsbad and Escondido both have regional
shopping centers and strong new car dealerships. The City of San Marcos has a net
inflow of consumer support for its retail sector primarily because of the strength of its
35
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
furniture and appliance sector as well as its building materials retail sector. This is an
unusual type of retail anchor effect in a small community like San Marcos.
Overall, the incorporated cities listed in Exhibit IV-8 generated total in-store
taxable retail sales in 1994 about $622.2 million more than the level compatible with
the combined population of these cities. Part of this support is drawn from residents of
unincorporated San Diego County. Support for the auto sector and the building
materials sector probably are drawn from other parts of San Diego County. As
indicated in Exhibit IV-8, these two categories demonstrate the most significant inflow
of consumer support.
Taken as a whole, the combined six cities reflect a theoretical outflow of
consumer support for apparel purchases, liquor store sales, and sales in restaurants.
The apparent outflow of apparel sales could easily represent transfer of this type of
purchase from conventional apparel stores to the area's strong general merchandise
outlets. The apparent outflow of liquor sales probably represents the purchase of liquor
in warehouse stores, supermarkets, or dmg stores. Since deregulation of liquor prices,
conventional liquor stores have become increasingly noncompetitive.
The apparent outflow of consumer support for restaurants is probably a
manifestation of the below-average impact of visitors in North County in terms of
restaurant sales vis-a-vis the impact of visitors on restaurant sales in the South County
near Mission Bay, Balboa Park, etc. With the increasing availability of visitor
attractions in North County - LEGOLAND, etc. - the relative disparity of restaurant
sales reflected in Exhibit IV-8 is likely to diminish.
The City of Oceanside which experiences significant outflow of consumer
expenditure is a major source of support for the strong retail sectors in Carlsbad and
Escondido. Vista's retail sector does not capture the expenditures of the City's
population, let alone attract significant outside support except for food store sales,
liquor store sales, and sales in service stations.
36
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Similar detailed long-term taxable retail sales charts for Escondido, Vista, San
Marcos, Oceanside, and Encinitas are included in Appendix A to the report.
F:\APPS\WORDDIR\RRTAVIAR\August 5, 1996\B
37
EXHIBIT IV-1
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 • 1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD, CAUFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $33,625 $34,013 $37,468 $52,345 $62,314 S67.489 $69,601 $67,285 $67,320 $63,375 7.30%
General Merchandise 119,722 119,274 128,015 116,720 113,656 105.246 94.533 107.122 142.055 136,071 1.43%
Drug Stores 7,241 8,527 9,166 9,330 9.359 10,164 11,058 12,114 11,483 10,834 4.58%
,Food Stores 27,364 31,964 34,372 34,739 41,364 42,214 48,659 50,901 40,008 39,496 4.16%
' Packaged Liquor Stores 1,416
Eating and Drinking Stores 54,791 62,205 66,703 52,609 56.436 58.065 56,276 57,244 58.501 63,627 1.68%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 9,849 11,558 12,480 10,096 9,665 9,892 6,591 9,264 17,057 6.29%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 29,235 32,145 44,535 44,129 50,946 43,564 33,477 29,389 32.028 29,189 (0.02%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 228,754 258,130 240,169 300,764 341,318 329,005 265.964 242.642 280.350 288.112 2.60%
Service Stations 33,109 27,916 32.755 35,123 34,064 31,699 29.515 34,100 37,347 36,457 1.08%
Other Retail Stores 52,990 55,440 62,748 67,260 75.645 87.470 76,740 81,460 92,783 106,650 8.08%
All Retail Stores 598,098 641,172 668,411 723,115 794,766 774.916 695.714 688.847 771,140 790,868 3.15%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-2
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD. CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment | 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 i
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 5.60% 5.18% 5.16% 6.53% 7.03% 7.54% 7.81% 7.53% 7.56% 7.11% 6.71%
General Merchandise 5.86% 5.28% 5.03% 4.45% 4.17% 3.99% 3.80% 4.24% 5.67% 5.23% 4.77%
Drug Stores 2.50% 2.63% 2.63% 2.58% 2.57% 2.88% 2.99% 3.08% 3.12% 2.96% 2.79%
Food Stores 2.14% 2.25% 2.67% 2.64% 2.96% 3.09% 3.38% 3.35% 3.25% 3.30% 2.90%
Packaged Liquor Stores 0.88% 0.88%
Eating and Drinking Stores 2.88% 3.17% 3.21% 2.42% 2.57% 2.62% 2.58% 2.65% 2.73% 2.94% 2.78%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1.69% 1.87% 1.84% 1.40% 1.23% 1.34% 0.92% 1.26% 2.10% 1.52%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 3.37% 2.90% 3.74% 3.35% 3.38% 3.08% 2.85% 2.58% 2.75% 2.57% 3.06%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 8.65% 8.20% 7.79% 9.35% 10.77% 11.50% 10.84% 9.92% 10.70% 10.81% 9.85%
Service Stations 2.67% 2.54% 2.S6% 2.76% 2.51% 2.35% 2.35% 2.49% 2.72% 2.78% 2.57%
Other Retail Stores 2.96% 2.81% 2.81% 2.88% 3.11% 3.61% 3.38% 3.57% 3.98% 4.36% 3.35%
All Retail Stores 4.46% 4.32% 4.25% 4.40% 4.65% 4.68% 4.49% 4.40% 4.97% 5.03% 4.56%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-3
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 -1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD. CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $716.95 $653.15 $664.32 $866.64 $993.85 $1,061.15 $1,071.61 $1,012.56 $995.85 $931.99 2.96%
General Merchandise 2.552.70 2,290.43 2,269.77 1,932.46 1,812.70 1,654.81 1.455.48 1.612.07 2,101.41 2,001.04 (2.67%)
Drug Stores 154.40 163.75 162.51 154.48 149.26 159.81 170.26 182.30 169.87 159.32 0.35%
Food Stores 583.45 613.82 609.43 575.16 659.70 663.74 749.17 766.01 591.84 580.82 (0.05%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 30.20
Eating and Drinking Stores 1.168.25 1,194.54 1.182.68 871.01 900.10 912.97 866.45 861.47 865.40 935.69 (2.44%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 210.00 221.96 221.28 167.15 154.14 152.30 99.18 137.04 250.84 1.99%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 623.35 617.28 789.62 730.61 812.53 684.98 515.42 442.27 473.79 429.25 (4.06%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 4.877.48 4,956.88 4.258.32 4.979.54 5,443.66 5,173.04 4,094.90 3,651.49 4.147.19 4,236.94 (1.55%)
Service Stations 705.95 536.07 580.77 581.50 543.28 498.41 454.42 513.16 552.48 536.13 (3.01%)
Other Retail Stores 1,129.86 1.064.61 1.112.56 1.113.57 1,206.46 1,375.31 1.181.52 1.225.88 1.372.53 1.568.38 3.71%
All Retail Stores 12.752.59 12,312.48 11.851.27 11.972.10 12.675.70 12,184.21 10,711.54 10.366.40 11.407.39 11,630.41 (1.02%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-4
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 -1994
cmr OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $501.86 $472.40 $446.05 $568.97 $642.42 $661.66 $710.22 $686.58 $623.33 $627.48 2.51%
General Merchandise 13,302.43 11.927.40 9.847.33 7,781.36 7,103.52 6,190.95 7.271.78 6.301.29 9,470.34 9,719.36 (3.43%)
Drug Stores 1.034.49 1,421.23 1,527.61 1.555.05 1,871.77 1,694.00 1,228.71 1.346.02 1,275.94 1,547.71 4.58%
Food Stores 829.21 940.13 1,010.93 868.49 827.27 917.69 1.035.29 1,060.44 909.28 963.32 1.68%
Packaged Liquor Stores 354.04
Eating and Drinking Stores 660.13 668.88 694.83 553.78 542.66 547.78 506.99 481.05 453.49 474.83 (3.59%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 273.58 251.27 249.60 177.12 182.36 183.18 126.75 162.53 289.10 0.62%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1.624.18 1.691.83 1,936.29 1,838.70 2,315.71 1,815.19 1,521.66 1,175.56 1,392.53 1,621.61 (0.02%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 13,456.11 15,184.09 10.916.79 13,671.11 16.253.22 13,160.22 8,865.46 9,332.38 8,760.93 9,934.90 (3.31%)
Service Stations 1,839.39 1,469.26 1.926.79 1,848.56 2,003.76 1,864.62 1,844.68 1,894.43 2,074.86 1.918.79 0.47%
Other Retail Stores 297.70 273.10 285.22 291.17 315.19 313.51 252.43 230.76 246.76 285.92 (0.45%)
All Retail Stores 1,272.55 1,228.30 1.176.78 1,197.21 1.265.55 1,136.24 984.04 896.94 948.51 992.31 (2.73%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-5
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABUSHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD. CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
City I County I So.Cal State City
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
I County I So. CaT State
to
Apparel Stores $931.99 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $627.48 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 2,001.04 961.37 849.26 888.63 9.719.36 4.384.27 3.608.86 3,699.52
Drug Stores 159.32 135.42 132.17 153.18 1,547.71 1.140.85 916.02 1,111.37
Food Stores 580.82 442.44 411.17 445.52 963.32 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 48.12 53.10 53.22 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 935.69 800.66 756.71 763.08 474.83 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 250.84 299.94 294.73 292.04 289.10 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 429.25 419.63 401.30 456.17 1.621.61 1.537.69 1.565.04 1,359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 4.236.94 985.75 949.30 969.88 9,934.90 1,756.13 1.641.26 1,615.19
Service Stations 536.13 484.66 525.74 516.74 1,918.79 1.843.46 1,811.23 1.676.80
Other Retail Stores 1.568.38 905.02 891.81 950.79 285.92 167.82 249.35 235.30
All Retail Stores 11,630.41 5,812.40 5,623.51 5,819.59 992.31 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-6
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD. CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual Potential* Actual 1 Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) 1 % of Potent. ($000) 1 % of Potent.
Apparel Stores $63,375 $22,463 $890,813 $893,362 $40,912 182.13% ($2,549) (0.29%)
General Merchandise 136,071 60,427 2.599,872 2,403,168 75.644 125.18% 196,704 8.19%
Drug Stores 10.834 10,416 366,214 414,257 418 4.01% (48,043) (11.60%)
Food Stores 39,496 30,295 1,196.519 1.204,841 9.201 30.37% (8,322) (0.69%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 3.619 130,120 143,923 (13,803) (9.59%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 63,627 51.889 2.165,277 2,063.636 11,738 22.62% 101.641 4,93%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 17,057 19.859 811,149 789.774 (2,802) (14.11%) 21.375 2.71%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 29,189 31.020 1,134,817 1.233,654 (1,831) (5.90%) (98,837) (8.01%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 288,112 65.952 2,665,811 2.622,885 222.160 336.85% 42,926 1.64%
Service Stations 36,457 35.138 1,310,698 1,397,435 1.319 3.75% (86.737) (6.21%)
Other Retail Stores 106,650 64,653 2,447,483 2,571,260 41.997 64.96% (123.777) (4.81%)
All Retail Stores 790,868 395,732 15,718,773 15,738,195 395.136 99.85% (19.422) (0.12%)
•Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mid-94 = 68,000 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94= 2,704,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-7
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment Actual
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
I Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
4>-
Apparel Stores $63,375 $24,359 $39,016 160.17%
General Merchandise 136,071 57,749 78,322 135.62%
Drug Stores 10,834 8,987 1,847 20.55%
Food Stores 39,496 27,960 11,536 41.26%
Packaged Liquor Stores 3,610 (3,610)
Eating and Drinking Stores 63,627 51,456 12,171 23.65%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 17,057 20,042 (2,985) (14.89%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 29,189 27,288 1,901 6.96%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 288,112 64,553 223,559 346.32%
Service Stations 36,457 35,750 707 1.98%
Other Retail Stores 106,650 60,643 46,007 75.87%
All Retail Stores 790,868 382,397 408,471 106.82%
'Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mld-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 68,000 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
EXHIBIT IV-8
INFLOW <OUTFLOW> OF TAXABLE IN-STORE RETAIL SALES (MILLIONS)
Percent
Carlsbad Encinitas Oceanside Vista San Marcos Escondido Total of Potential
Apparel $ 39.0 $<12.6> $<29.7> $<22.8> $ <5.8> $ 24.3 $ <7.6> 95.9%
General Merchandise 78.3 <22.2> <45.9> 3.2 <39.9> 167.5 141.0 132.0
Drug Stores 1.8 4.1 0.9 <0.7> 2.8 4.7 13.6 120.8
Food Stores 11.5 14.5 4.7 7.7 4.5 28.1 71.0 133.3
Liquor Stores <3.6> 2.9 <3.6> 0.3 <1.4> 0.1 <5.3> 80.8
Restaurants 12.2 13.7 <17.8> <23.5> 1.8 1.2 <12.4> 96.9
Furniture and Appliances <3.0> 1.2 <18.1 > <0.6> 36.3 15.1 30.9 120.3
Building Materials 1.9 <15.6> <1.8> <0.9> 30.0 73.8 87.4 141.9
Auto Sector 223.6 7.4 <95.5> <53.6> <32.3> 191.7 241.3 149.0
Service Stations 0.7 6.6 <22.1 > 4.3 <3.4> 18.5 4.6 101.7
Other 46.0 <1.5> <48.8> <32.9> 54.8 39.9 57.5 112.4
Total 408.4 <1.5> <277.7> <119.5> 47.4 565.0 622.2 121.3
Actual ^ Potential 206.8 99.6 66.4 73.7 117.9 184.8 121.3
Ol
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization.
F:\APPS\TABLES\TRTAVAIR\July 29, 1996\B
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER V
OVERALL RETAIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
COMPARISONS
As described at the end of Chapter III, the existing inventory of competitive
supermarkets and drug stores located within the primary trade area appropriate to a
neighborhood shopping center at the subject site along with supermarkets and drug
stores located outside the primary trade area collectively constitute a weighted
competitive inventory of gross leasable area (GLA) of this type that minimizes the
market viability of a supermarket or drug store anchor for a conventional neighborhood
shopping center to be developed at the Aviara commercial site. This chapter reviews
the competitive enviroiraient for other types of retail uses in order to evaluate the
potential for other possible retail uses in the area.
In this context, the effective trade area is coterminous with the primary trade
area for a neighborhood shopping center site - actually smaller. Unanchored shopping
centers typically do not have adequate drawing power to attract consumers from a
significant distance. Use of the primary trade area as a limit to define consumer
demand for other types of retail uses is optimistic in light of this circumstance and
overstates effective consumer support for retailing at the Aviara site.
Few unanchored shopping centers larger than 20,000 square feet of gross
leasable area achieve high occupancy levels and high rents. Tenants in well-anchored
shopping centers have a competitive advantage over the same types of merchants in
unanchored centers. The most pertinent trade area for a convenience market, for
example, has a radius of less than 0.5 miles as compared with the assumed trade area
for an anchored neighborhood shopping center - a radius of 2.0 miles.
46
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Comparisons of supply and demand characteristics for other types of retail use
employ two estimates of consumer support potential - the current population of the
prunary trade area (11,153 persons) and the horizon population of the trade area at
buildout of the residential elements in the surrounding area: 26,590 persons.
Apparel Stores
The current population of the primary trade area (11,153) represents armualized
expenditure potential in apparel stores of $5,018,850. This estimate reflects tfie high
per capita income of residents of the primary trade area which makes them relatively
more potent consumers than an average resident of San Diego County by about 36.7
percent.
Apparel merchants in the primary trade area, however, caimot expect to capture
all of the primary trade area consumers' expenditure in apparel stores for a number of
reasons:
1. Overall expenditure potential of $5.0 million a year is below the threshold to
support a full range of apparel merchants able to offer a wide variety of apparel
goods in various price ranges, styles, store categories, etc.
2. Empirical data based on materials in Chapter IV as well as the detailed retail
sales data for each surrounding city included in Appendix A show that even in a
City as large as Oceanside, 56.5 percent of the community's support for apparel
stores leaks out of the City. Outleakage of apparel expendimre from Encinitas
in 1994 was 61.0 percent of the potential represented by its population. In
Vista, the comparable outleakage was 79.0 percent. As noted in Chapter IV,
outleakage of apparel from the entire six-City area in 1994 was 4.1 percent of
the expenditure potential of the incorporated Cities' population.
47
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
3. Typically, the outleakage from a trade area with a small consumer support base
is relatively more than from a community with a large consumer support base
because of these threshold factors.
4. In regional retail trade areas, regional centers typically capture 60.0 percent of
the trade area's apparel retail sales potential.
Assuming that 60.0 percent of the $5.0 million per year aimual sales potential
for apparel stores generated in the primary trade area currently is a normal leakage, the
balance ($2.0 million in apparel expenditure potential) should be disaggregated over
several types of apparel merchants. This allocation process as applied to the estimate
of the net effective market for apparel stores in the primary trade area produces the
following estimate of sales potential by type of merchant in terms of both the current
and horizon population of the primary trade area.
Current Buildout
Women's Apparel $ 570,029 $1,359,066
Men's Apparel 235,482 561,435
Family Apparel 838,549 1,999,268
Shoes 355.940 848.633
• Total $2,000,000 $4,768,692
Typically, a single merchant in most retail categories except for liquor stores,
food stores, and other pure convenience goods can expect to capture only about 20.0
percent of the available consumer expenditure potential for which it competes. Liquor
stores, for example, can be expected to capmre virtually 100.0 percent of the
unexploited demand in the liquor category because of the homogeneity of the product -
assuming a well-run store that offers a broad range of merchandise. Apparel stores can
typically expect to capture only a small proportion of the specific demand available to
them. The product is extremely diversified. Various types of specialty food stores can
usually capmre a large share of the unexploited demand in the trade area, while
furniture stores have low market penetration because of the specialty nature of furniture
48
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
merchandising. It is this factor that accounts for the unusual concentration of furniture-
related sales activity in San Marcos - an accumulation of complementary facilities that
collectively generate a regional draw of the type that is virtually impossible to replicate
on a plaimed basis in a specific market area. Video rental facilities that offer a broad
range of product can capture virtually all underexploited demand in their primary trade
area - the product is homogeneous and in most cases so is the service level. Applying a
20.0 percent capture rate to each of the expenditure potentials provided above and
comparing this estimate of sales potential per store with the typical size of stores in
each category produces the following estimates of effective support potential in terms
of the current population of the trade area:
Effective Sales
Potential Per
Merchant
Supportable
Square Feet'
Typical
Store Size^
(Sq. Ft.)
Demand as a
Percent of
Typical Store Size
Women's Apparel $114,006 570 2,000 28.5%
Men's Apparel 47,096 235 3,000 7.8
Family Apparel 167,710 839 4,500 18.6
Shores 71,188 356 2,600 13.7
'Assume sales of $200 per square foot of GLA.
^From Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (adjusted).
The effective sales potential per type of store allowing for a 20.0 percent
capture of the net expendimre potential by a single store (after allowance for outleakage
to regional centers, etc.) falls far short of passing the threshold to support apparel
stores in any given category. This is one reason why the total current inventory of
apparel sales floor area in the primary area is only 1,780 square feet - Appendix B.
If the 20.0 percent share constraint were to be set aside, only one category of
apparel merchant represents theoretical potential in the trade area - women's apparel.
Even at buildout of the residential population, these tfireshold relationships
suggest fairly minimal opportunity for apparel merchants in the trade area, as shown
below:
49
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Effective Sales Typical Demand as a
Potential Per Supportable Store Size^ Percent of
Merchant Square Feet' (Sq. Ft.) Typical Store Size
Women's Apparel $271,813 1,359 2,000 67.9%
Men's Apparel 112,287 561 3,000 18.7
Family Apparel 399,853 2,000 4,500 44.4
Shores 169,726 850 2,600 32.7
'Assume sales of $200 per square foot of GLA.
^From Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (adjusted).
These calculations indicate that at buildout of the residential elements of the
primary trade area, a successful women's apparel shop would have to capture 29.4
percent of the net effective primary trade area expenditure potential (after allowance for
outleakage to regional shopping centers, etc.) to be an effective operation. A family
apparel store would have to capture nearly 45.0 percent of the adjusted primary trade
area expenditure potential at the time of residential buildout of the primary trade area in
order to achieve a satisfactory sales volume of $200 per square foot in terms of 1996
conditions.
The Four Seasons Hotel will incorporate 4,835 square feet of gross leasable area
of retail floor space, some portion of which is likely to be oriented to apparel-type
merchandise.
The market potential for apparel stores as potential tenants in a strip center or
other unanchored retail facility in terms of current population at buildout is marginal.
The analyses described below identify other types of small merchants for which there is
now or will be some underexploited market potential.
Restaurants
Affluent residents of the trade area represent strong potential market support for
restaurants. Outleakage of support for restaurants is typically much less dramatic than
is the case for shopper goods - apparel, general merchandise, autos, furniture, etc.
Nonetheless, as illustrated in Appendix A, 39.0 percent of the restaurant potential
consistent with Vista's population leaks out of the local community. This may reflect
50
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
limited employment in Vista impacting mid-day sales. Carlsbad and Encinitas both
benefit from significant inflow of consumer expenditure potential for restaurants as
does San Marcos and (to a minor degree) Escondido.
Restaurant sales are income elastic. Higher income consumers spend about the
same proportion of their income in restaurants as moderate-income consumers. As a
result, the restaurant sales potential generated by the existing and buildout population of
the primary trade area is substantial. This potential esthnated on the basis of the
current (1996) population of the primary trade area is $14,443,135 a year. The
potential defined in terms of the buildout population of the prunary trade area is
$34,435,345 a year (in 1996 prices).
At a target sales level of $200 per square foot in 1996 prices, the current
population base in the primary trade area represents support for 72,216 square feet of
eating and drinking facility gross leasable area (GLA).
The buildout population of the primary trade area constitutes theoretical support
for 172,175 square feet of GLA of this type.
The current inventory of restaurant floor area in the two-mile primary trade area
(based on the field survey conducted during July 1996) is 98,620 square feet (Appendix
B). Part of this inventory is supported by travelers along 1-5 or by residents of the
extended trade area to the east. Nonetheless, the restaurant sector currently shows no
major evidence of underexploited demand.
At buildout of the residential elements of the primary trade area, however, the
esthnated support potential of 172,175 square feet represents a future oppormnity for
development of about 73,600 square feet of new retail restaurant floor area.
Restaurants, therefore, constimte a future retail development opportunity in the primary
trade area. Part of this will be accommodated by restaurant elements to be included in
new shopping centers under development or planned for development. The travel-
oriented center proposed for the I-5/Poinsettia Lane interchange, for example, is likely
51
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
to incorporate restaurant floor area as will retail development associated with the visitor
area surrounding the LEGOLAND project. The Four Seasons Hotel will also provide
restaurant facilities which are not included in the current competitive inventory
summarized in Appendix B.
Restaurants do not enjoy any significant competitive advantage from being
located in shopping centers. Restaurants are an effective freestanding use on small
commercial sites. In many cases, restaurants prosper in an environment which includes
several other complementary restaurants - a critical mass effect.
Furniture and Appliances
Expenditure for furniture and appliances by higher income households is more
than the comparable figure for low-income households. Furniture and appliances are
consumer durables, the purchase of which is discretionary. The current annual
expenditure potential of the primary trade area population allowing for its affluence is
approxunately $4.9 million a year. At buildout of the residential components of the
primary trade area, the comparable figure in terms of 1996 dollars will be $11.75
million a year in retail expenditure in this category.
Furniture stores do not need high sales volumes per square foot in order to be
profitable. Merchants in this category often have high profit margins.
The implicit support potential for furniture stores represented by the existing
and future population of the primary trade area is substantial - 36,300 square feet in
terms of current conditions and 87,000 square feet when the primary trade area
residential sites achieve full buildout.
As noted, however, fiimimre is a shopper good; 42.0 percent of expenditure
potential in this category escapes to other cities. The estimates provided above,
therefore, could be subject to a "leakage" modification. The leakage pattern for this
52
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
sector does not show the same consistency as the comparable pattern for apparel and
general merchandise sales.
Specialty Foods and Liquor Stores
The current population base of the prunary trade area does not pass the
threshold to support any type of specialty food store (meat, poultry, and fish; fruit and
vegetable; candy and nut; dairy; bakeries; etc.). The current inventory of specialty
food stores within the prunary trade area includes 4,877 square feet of meat, poultry,
and fish sales area; 2,350 square feet of fruit and vegetable sales floor area; 3,655
square feet of bakeries; and a large inventory of miscellaneous food stores (24,593
square feet) - see Appendix B. Even at buildout of the residential elements of the
primary trade area, the market opportunity for most specialty food stores in the primary
trade area is marginal.
Currently, theoretical market support for liquor stores is 4,500 square feet of
gross leasable area. Typical liquor store size is 2,500 square feet. Liquor is a
homogeneous product. The viability of conventional liquor stores has been eroded in
recent years as a result of deregulation of liquor prices. As a consequence, a large
share of liquor sales has shifted from conventional liquor stores to discount liquor
departments in supermarkets and drug stores, and especially to warehouse stores such
as Price Club. Liquor stores, however, represent tenant potential for shopping facilities
in the primary trade area. Current underexploited potential is 4,500 square feet.
Buildout potential (discounting the effect of changing consumer patterns) is 10,750
square feet of liquor store GLA.
Other Specialty Shops
A comparison of supply and demand characteristics in the prunary trade area for
antique and secondhand stores; book and stationery stores; sporting goods stores;
jewelry stores; florists; nurseries; hobby, toy, and game stores; camera and photo
53
I
I
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Stores; gift and novelty shops; and other miscellaneous retail floor space shows no
unmet opportunities adequate to support an average-size new competitor in any of these
retail categories (see Appendix B).
Allowing for the buildout population of the primary trade area's residential
elements, theoretical potential for various stores of this type is as follows:
Development Potential Store Size
(Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.)
Antique and Secondhand Stores 2,900 1,000
Book and Stationery Stores 6,787 2,800
Sporting Goods Stores Insufficient Incremental Support
Jewelry Stores Very Marginal
Florists Insufficient Incremental Support
Nurseries Marginal Support for a Small Niu-sery
Hobby, Toy, and Game Shops Insufficient Incremental Support
Camera and Photo Insufficient Incremental Support
Gift and Novelty Shops Insufficient Incremental Support
Other 3,230 1,300
Within this category, the types of uses that will become feasible with the
buildout of the balance of the residential areas in the primary trade area include antique
and secondhand stores, book and stationery stores, and "other" miscellaneous small
shops.
Most types of small merchants listed above are either already well represented
within the two-mile primary trade area or are categories in which growth in demand
will not be adequate to generate unexploited potential greater than the threshold for an
additional store in that category.
Finance Tenants
The current inventory of branch bank floor area within the primary trade area
(20,049 square feet) in terms of historical relationships between bank floor space and
consumer support nearly double the level compatible with the population base in the
primary trade area in 1996. Theoretically, growth in population to the horizon level of
approximately 26,500 will create a marginally viable opportunity for a small bank
office (approximately 3,000 square feet) in the primary trade area.
54
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Given the consolidation in banking and the savings and loan institutions -
currently accompanied by declining bank employment - the historical relationship
between bank gross leasable area and consumer support base population is likely to be
eroded in the future. ATMs and other techniques for delivering banking services are
likely to reduce the ratio of conventional financial institution floor space to population
as technology unfolds.
There are no identifiable storefront personal finance offices or insurance
agencies located in retail facilities in the primary area surveyed for purposes of this
study. These uses currently represent potential for approximately 7,600 square feet of
gross leasable area. With the full buildout of the residential components of the primary
trade area, this unexploited potential for storefront offices of this type will rise to about
18,350 square feet.
Real estate offices are well represented in retail floor area in the trade area
currently. As the area matures, it is unlikely that demand for real estate office gross
leasable area in retail facilities will increase significantly over the current inventory.
Personal Services
The primary trade area currently has no coin laundries. It is, however, well
supplied with cleaning pick-up locations. Coin laundries are not an especially viable
business in affluent, homeowner communities.
At the maturation of the primary trade area's population base, there will be
theoretical support for a 1,300-square-foot photo studio (as distinct from a camera and
photo shop).
The current inventory of hair care facilities in the primary trade area is almost
exactly in balance with the theoretical demand (Appendix B). Growth in the prunary
trade area population will generate additional consumer support for this type of retail
55
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
use - at buildout of the primary trade area's residential land, underexploited demand in
this category is expected to be on the order of 12,000 square feet.
Other Professional Offices
Storefront medical offices (as distinct from medical offices in pure medical
buildings) are well represented in the trade area. The field inventory, however, did not
evaluate the specific tenant mix in the office components of some mixed-use
commercial developments in the survey area. Allowing for a fairly typical
representation of medical offices in these facilities, there are no significant current
underexploited market niches for storefront medical offices in the primary trade area.
Tax preparers and other accounting offices are underrepresented in the retail
components of the commercial areas surveyed, although they may well represent
tenancy in the office components of the mixed-use projects surveyed. The horizon
population of the trade area will support 10,400 square feet of storefront office space in
this category. This type of consumer service is not fiscally beneficial to cities.
Cinema
The current inventory (six screens) in the primary trade area is adequate to serve
a population of 51,000 people. Because of the proliferation of cinema facilities in
commercial areas throughout Califomia, it is likely that new retail projects currently in
the development pipeline will expand theatre capacity. This category of retail services
is becoming widely available throughout Califomia. It does not represent an unusually
attractive development opportunity as a freestanding use.
Home Improvement Sector
There are currently no home unprovement stores in the primary trade area.
Theoretical underexploited demand is approxunately 17,633 square feet of gross
leasable area in this category. This retail sector, however, is undergoing dramatic and
revolutionary change in the relative competitive roles of various types of outlets.
56
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Home Depot (which is represented in the regional trade area at a site accessible from
the primary trade area) has effectively displaced National Lumber, Handyman, and
Builders Emporium in Southem Califomia in recent years. As a practical matter,
traditional small hardware stores or specialty home improvement shops that formerly
responded to a substantial component of the demand in this category have become
technologically obsolete.
This retail category is becoming increasing subject to regional concentration
(similar to apparel stores) as the major competitors drastically alter historical sales
trends.
Existmg and projected support for this retail use by the primary trade area
consumer population are shown in raw absolute terms in the foUowmg section of this
chapter.
Tenant Potential Summary
The current underexploited tenant potential defined by the process described
above as well as the future potential base on the buildout population of the primary
trade area with no allowance for increase in competitive supply elsewhere within the
primary trade area are summarized below:
Underexploited Demand (Sq. Ft.)
Category Current Buildout
Apparel Marginal Marginal
Restaurants None 73,600
Furniture and Appliances 36,300 87,000
Liquor Stores 4,500 10,770
Specialty Shops Marginal 12,920
Branch Bank -3,000
Insurance and Other Storefront Financial 7,600 18,350
Photo Studio -1,300
Hair Care -12,000
Storefront Medical -23,590
Tax Preparers and Accountants 4,300 10,400
Home Improvement 17,633 67.750
Total 70,333 320,680
57
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Fairly aggressive projections of demand for retail floor space supportable by the
buildout population of the primary trade area indicate a development opportunity at the
primary trade area's horizon population level of about 320,680 square feet of GLA.
Projects under constmction at locations close enough to the centroid of the
primary trade area to represent competition for the prunary trade area population's
expenditures of the types of most interest include the eventual 539,031-square-foot
Encinitas Ranch Town Center. Because of its location and the strength of its anchors,
its weighted competitive equivalent impact expressed in terms of its ability to complete
for expenditures of the primary trade area population is 177,880 square feet.
The 300,000-square-foot Carlsbad Company Stores project is located close
enough to the center of the primary trade area to constitute an effective competitive
supply element (adjusted for distance) of 189,000 equivalent square feet of GLA.
The new neighborhood center to be developed by expanding La Costa Plaza
represents equivalent competitive retail floor area in relationship to the centroid of the
primary trade area of 42,000 square feet.
The potential 170-acre development at Surmy Creek Plaza - north of the primary
trade area - overlaps the primary trade area and represents competition equivalent to
about 38,250 square feet of competitive gross leasable area vis-a-vis the centroid of the
primary trade area. The total of these future developments is 447,980 square feet. If
tenanted in the right mix of stores, this project meets all the underexploited
development opportunities supportable by the buildout population of the prunary trade
area as described above.
58
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
Effective
Distance Trade Area Competitive
Size to Site Effect Distance Supply
Project (Sq. Ft.) (Miles) (Miles) Factor (Sq. Ft.)
Encinitas Ranch Town Center 539,031 3.5 3.0 0.33 177,880
Carlsbad Company Stores 300,000 1.7 3.0 0.63 189,000
La Costa Plaza 120,000 (est.) 2.1 2.0 0.35 42,000
Sunny Creek Plaza 170,000 (est.) 2.6 2.0 0.23 39,100
Total Weighted Effective Competitive Impact 447,980
F:\APPS\WORDDIR\RRTAVIAR\Augusl 5, 1996\B
59
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
APPENDIX A
RETAIL SALES TAX DATA
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABLISHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment City
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
I County So Cal. State City
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
I County So. Cal State
ON
o
Apparel Stores $141.10 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $154.42 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 466.26 961.37 849.26 888.63 3,380.38 4,384.27 3,608.86 3,699.52
Drug Stores 202.74 135.42 132.17 153.18 1,175.90 1,140.85 916.02 1,111.37
Food Stores 661.34 442.44 411.17 445.52 935.56 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 103.07 48.12 53.10 53.22 597.80 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 993.79 800.66 756.71 763.08 355.80 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 316.22 299.94 294.73 292.04 333.47 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 131.74 419.63 401.30 456.17 449.47 1,537.69 1,565.04 1,359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 1,076.41 985.75 949.30 969.88 2,972.95 1,756.13 1,641.26 1,615.19
Service Stations 640.09 484.66 525.74 516.74 2,183.82 1,843.46 1,811.23 1,676.80
Other Retail Stores 866.21 905.02 891.81 950.79 147.33 167.82 249.35 235.30
All Retail Stores 5,598.98 5,812.40 5,623.51 5,819.59 441.82 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS, CAUFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Apparel Stores
General Merchandise
Drug Stores
Food Stores
Packaged Liquor Stores
Eating and Drinking Stores
Home Furnishings and Appliances
Building Materials and Farm Impl.
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies
Service Stations
Other Retail Stores
All Retail Stores
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual Potential* Actual Potential*
$8,184 $19,160 $890,813 $893,362
27,043 51,541 2,599,872 2,403.168
11,759 8,885 366,214 414,257
38,358 25,840 1,196,519 1,204,841
5,978 3,087 130,120 143,923
57,640 44,259 2,165,277 2,063,636
18,341 16,938 811,149 789,774
7,641 26,458 1,134,817 1,233,654
62,432 56,253 2,665,811 2,622,885
37,125 29,971 1,310,698 1,397,435
50,240 55,146 2,447,483 2,571,260
324,741 337,536 15,718,773 15,738,195
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) 1 % of Potent. ($000) 1 % of Potent.
($10,976) (57.29%) ($2,549) (0.29%)
(24,498) (47.53%) 196.704 8.19%
2,874 32.35% (48,043) (11.60%)
12,518 48.44% (8,322) (0.69%)
2,891 93.67% (13,803) (9.59%)
13,381 30.23% 101,641 4.93%
1,403 8.28% 21,375 2.71%
(18,817) (71.12%) (98,837) (8.01%)
6,179 10.98% 42,926 1.64%
7,154 23.87% (86,737) (6.21%)
(4,906) (8.90%) (123,777) (4.81%)
(12,795) (3.79%) (19,422) (0.12%)
'Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mld-94 = 58,000 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94 = 2,704,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
Actual Potential"
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
0^
to
Apparel Stores $8,184 $20,777 ($12,593) (60.61%)
General Merchandise 27,043 49.257 (22.214) (45.10%)
Drug Stores 11,759 7.666 4,093 53.40%
Food Stores 38,358 23,848 14,510 60.84%
Packaged Liquor Stores 5,978 3,080 2,898 94.12%
Eating and Drinking Stores 57.640 43.889 13.751 31.33%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 18,341 17.095 1.246 7.29%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 7,641 23,275 (15.634) (67.17%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 62,432 55.059 7,373 13.39%
Service Stations 37.125 30,493 6.632 21.75%
Other Retail Stores 50.240 51.725 (1,485) (2.87%)
All Retail Stores 324,741 326.163 (1,422) (0.44%)
'Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 58,000 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $16,044 $15,519 $14,315 $12,025 $10,837 $9,687 $9,149 $8,184
General Merchandise 14,161 24,793 25.277 25.969 25,367 24,677 23.413 27.043
Drug Stores 12,863 13,452 13,375 12,721 12,651 12,989 11.545 11.759
Food Stores 40,878 45,114 44,479 40,913 41,274 46,378 38,420 38,358
Packaged Liquor Stores 10,898 9,631 9.707 8.983 8.810 6,438 5,942 5.978
Eating and Drinking Stores 61,558 64,876 59,631 58,836 57,124 53.152 56,569 57,640
Home Furnishings and Appliances 18,016 18.874 19.771 20,030 18,042 19.705 19,800 18.341
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 16,771 16.872 16,914 10,476 14,769 14,706 14.781 7,641
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 54,372 63,182 76.562 66,554 54.400 47,345 63,176 62.432
Service Stations 37,203 41,834 37.869 39,857 35,404 38,964 38,586 37.125
Other Retail Stores 57,772 62,315 61,314 57,082 48,665 45.925 43,892 50,240
All Retail Stores N/A N/A 340,537 376,461 379,214 353,446 327,343 319,966 325.273 324,741
0^
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS. CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 2.21% 1.94% 1.62% 1.34% 1.22% 1.08% 1.03% 0.92% 1.42%
General Merchandise 0.56% 0.94% 0.93% 0.99% 1.02% 0.98% 0.93% 1.04% 0.92%
Drug Stores 3.69% 3.71% 3.67% 3.60% 3.42% 3.30% 3.14% 3.21 % 3.47%
Food Stores 3.18% 3.43% 3.18% 3.00% 2.86% 3.05% 3.12% 3.21% 3.13%
Packaged Liquor Stores 5.50% 5.17% 5.49% 5.57% 5.43% 3.97% 4.25% 4.59% 5.00%
Eating and Drinking Stores 2.96% 2.99% 2.71% 2.66% 2.62% 2.46% 2.64% 2.66% 2.71%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 2.66% 2.61% 2.53% 2.52% 2.45% 2.75% 2.69% 2.26% 2.56%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1.41% 1.28% 1.12% 0.74% 1.26% 1.29% 1.27% 0.67% 1.13%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 1.76% 1.96% 2.42% 2.33% 2.22% 1.94% 2.41% 2.34% 2.17%
Service Stations 2.91% 3.29% 2.79% 2.95% 2.81% 2.84% 2.81% 2.83% 2.90%
Other Retail Stores 2.59% 2.67% 2.52% 2.35% 2.14% 2.01% 1.88% 2.05% 2.28%
All Retail Stores N/A N/A 2.17% 2.30% 2.23% 2.15% 2.12% 2.05% 2.10% 2.07% 2.15%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF ENCINITAS. CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $313.36 $295.88 $265.10 $216.67 $192.83 $169.65 $158.29 $141.10
General Merchandise 276.58 472.69 468.10 467.91 451.37 432.17 405.07 466.26
Drug Stores 251.23 256.47 247.69 229.21 225.11 227.48 199.73 202.74
Food Stores 798.41 860.14 823.68 737.18 734.41 812.22 664.71 661.34
Packaged Liquor Stores 212.86 183.62 179.76 161.85 156.77 112.75 102.81 103.07
Eating and Drinking Stores 1,202.30 1,236.91 1.104.27 1,060.11 1.016.44 930.86 978.70 993.79
Home Furnishings and Appliances 351.88 359.85 366.12 360.90 321.03 345.10 342.55 316.22
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 327.55 321.67 313.22 188.76 262.80 257.54 255.72 131.74
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 1,061.96 1,204.61 1.417.82 1,199.17 967.97 829.16 1.093.01 1.076.41
Service Stations 726.62 797.60 701.27 718.14 629.96 682.39 667.58 640.09
Other Retail Stores 1,128.36 1,188.08 1.135.45 1.028.51 865.93 804.28 759.38 866.21
All Retail Stores N/A N/A 6,651.11 7.177.53 7.022.48 6,368.40 5.824.62 5.603.61 5.627.56 5.598.98
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
cmr OF ENCINITAS, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $276.62 $231.63 $230.89 $200.42 $186.84 $189.94 $166.35 $154.42
General Merchandise 1,180.08 2.754.74 2.527.74 2,164.08 2,306.09 2.741.87 2.601.43 3,380.38
Drug Stores 1,607.87 1.681.47 1.910.75 1,817.31 1,265.12 1,623.66 1.154.46 1,175.90
Food Stores 851.63 902.29 907.73 802.22 809.29 875.05 835.23 935.56
Packaged Liquor Stores 908.20 802.55 882.47 748.56 734.19 536.52 540.21 597.80
Eating and Drinking Stores 433.50 447.42 405.65 377.15 370.94 359.14 364.96 355.80
Home Furnishings and Appliances 310.62 319.90 353.05 333.83 311.07 312.78 347.36 333.47
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 931.71 992.46 994.92 455.48 703.31 735.28 869.44 449.47
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 2,364.00 2.871.90 3.645.82 2.773.08 2,863.16 2,367.26 3.008.39 2,972.95
Service Stations 2,188.42 2.324.13 1,893.43 2.344.52 2,082.57 2,050.76 2.411.64 2,183.82
Other Retail Stores 231.09 238.75 221.35 194.82 158.00 147.67 135.89 147.33
All Retail Stores N/A N/A 627.15 563.56 560.14 494.33 455.28 448.13 451.77 441.82 N/A
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABLISHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF VISTA, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
City County So. Cal. State
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
City County So. Cal State
ON
Apparel Stores $74.72 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $158.00 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 888.77 961.37 849.26 888.63 4,463.31 4,384.27 3,608.86 3,699.52
Drug Stores 131.35 135.42 132.17 153.18 959.45 1.140.85 916.02 1.111.37
Food Stores 506.70 442.44 411.17 445.52 946.81 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 57.11 48.12 53.10 53.22 353.00 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 464.00 800.66 756.71 763.08 243.67 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 287.43 299.94 294.73 292.04 659.86 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 390.11 419.63 401.30 456.17 1,362.83 1,537.69 1.565.04 1,359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 282.79 985.75 949.30 969.88 483.45 1.756.13 1.641.26 1,615.19
Service Stations 579.02 484.66 525.74 516.74 2,022.78 1,843.46 1.811.23 1.676.80
Other Retail Stores 482.39 905.02 891.81 950.79 162.86 167.82 249.35 235.30
Ail Retail Stores 4,144.38 5.812.40 5,623.51 5,819.59 520.31 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF VISTA, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual Potential* Actual Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) % of Potent. ($000) % of Potent.
ON 00
Apparel Stores $6,004 $26,543 $890,813 $893,362 ($20,539) (77.38%) ($2,549) (0.29%)
General Merchandise 71,413 71.401 2.599.872 2.403,168 12 0.02% 196.704 8.19%
Drug Stores 10,554 12,308 366,214 414,257 (1,754) (14.25%) (48.043) (11.60%)
Food Stores 40,713 35,797 1,196,519 1.204.841 4,916 13.73% (8,322) (0.69%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 4,589 4,276 130,120 143,923 313 7.32% (13,803) (9.59%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 37,282 61,314 2,165,277 2,063,636 (24,032) (39.19%) 101,641 4.93%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 23.095 23,465 811.149 789,774 (370) (1.58%) 21,375 2.71%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 31,345 36.654 1,134,817 1,233,654 (5,309) (14.48%) (98,837) (8.01%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 22,722 77.930 2.665.811 2,622.885 (55,208) (70.84%) 42,926 1.64%
Service Stations 46.524 41.520 1,310,698 1.397.435 5,004 12.05% (86,737) (6.21%)
Other Retail Stores 38.760 76.396 2,447.483 2.571,260 (37.636) (49.26%) (123,777) (4.81%)
All Retail Stores 333,001 467.604 15,718.773 15,738,195 (134,603) (28.79%) (19,422) (0.12%)
* Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mid-94 = 80,350 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94 2,704,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CrtY OF VISTA, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
Actual Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
ON
VO
Apparel Stores $6,004 $28,783 ($22,779) (79.14%)
General Merchandise 71,413 68.238 3,175 4.65%
Drug Stores 10,554 10.620 (66) (0.62%)
Food Stores 40.713 33.037 7,676 23.23%
Packaged Liquor Stores 4.589 4,266 323 7.57%
Eating and Drinking Stores 37.282 60,802 (23,520) (38.68%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 23.095 23,682 (587) (2.48%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 31.345 32,244 (899) (2.79%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 22.722 76.276 (53.554) (70.21%)
Service Stations 46.524 42.243 4.281 10.13%
Other Retail Stores 38.760 71,657 (32,897) (45.91%)
All Retail Stores 333.001 451,849 (118,848) (26.30%)
•Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 80,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF VISTA. CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $1,498 $2,121 $2,914 $2,757 $2,977 $3,272 $3,703 $4,800 $5,158 $6,004 16.68%
General Merchandise 20,453 14,625 16.434 16.694 17,695 16.443 15.320 14,601 23,009 71.413 14.90%
Drug Stores 8,403 9,594 9.382 9.819 10,002 9.831 11.262 13.996 12.288 10,554 2.56%
Food Stores 33.918 36,203 37.744 44.814 50,547 52.476 53,548 52.232 42,862 40.713 2.05%
Packaged Liquor Stores 5,704 5,985 6.040 5,561 6,276 5.553 5.560 5.737 4,996 4,589 (2.39%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 28,621 26,564 31.108 32,315 35,009 34,348 35,162 35,574 35.982 37,282 2.98%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 6.952 7,176 6,421 6,200 11,042 11,712 9.673 12,217 21.472 23,095 14.27%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 25,073 25,871 25,703 33.798 37,180 42.107 20.551 23.131 37.219 31,345 2.51%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 20,117 27,084 34,492 30,106 29,240 30,126 23.563 23.184 23,802 22,722 1.36%
Service Stations 31,775 30,053 38,588 40,978 44,851 44,392 40.691 48.298 46,954 46,524 4.33%
Other Retail Stares 17,796 22,588 23,807 33,264 41,121 40,211 35.114 33,115 36,659 38,760 9.03%
All Retail Stores 200,310 207,864 232,633 256,304 285,939 290,470 254.146 266,885 290.402 333,001 5.81%
o
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF VISTA. CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 0.25% 0.32% 0.40% 0.34% 0.34% 0.37% 0.42% 0.54% 0.58% 0.67% 0.42%
General Merchandise 1.00% 0.65% 0.65% 0.64% 0.65% 0.62% 0.62% 0.58% 0.92% 2.75% 0.91%
Drug Stores 2.90% 2.96% 2.69% 2.71% 2.74% 2.78% 3.04% 3.55% 3.34% 2.88% 2.96%
Food Stores 2.65% 2.55% 2.93% 3.41% 3.61% 3.84% 3.72% 3.44% 3.48% 3.40% 3.30%
Packaged Liquor Stores 3.56% 3.58% 3.05% 2.98% 3.55% 3.44% 3.43% 3.54% 3.57% 3.53% 3.42%
Eating and Drinking Stores 1.50% 1.36% 1.50% 1.49% 1.59% 1.55% 1.61% 1.65% 1.68% 1.72% 1.57%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1.19% 1.16% 0.95% 0.86% 1.41% 1.47% 1.31% 1.70% 2.92% 2.85% 1.58%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 2.89% 2.33% 2.16% 2.57% 2.47% 2.97% 1.75% 2.03% 3.20% 2.76% 2.51%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 0.76% 0.86% 1.12% 0.94% 0.92% 1.05% 0.96% 0.95% 0.91% 0.85% 0.93%
Service Stations 2.56% 2.73% 3.02% 3.23% 3.31% 3.28% 3.23% 3.52% 3.41% 3.55% 3.18%
Other Retail Stores 0.99% 1.14% 1.07% 1.42% 1.69% 1.66% 1.55% 1.45% 1.57% 1.58% 1.41%
All Retail Stores 1.50% 1.41% 1.48% 1.56% 1.68% 1.76% 1.65% 1.71% 1.87% 2.12% 1.67%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF VISTA, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $32.85 $43.45 $54.62 $46.69 $45.98 $45.19 $49.48 $62.38 $65.46 $74.72 9.56%
General Merchandise 448.53 299.54 308.05 282.70 273.28 227.11 204.67 189.75 291.99 888.77 7.89%
Drug Stores 184.29 196.50 175.86 166.29 154.47 135.78 150.45 181.88 155.94 131.35 (3.69%)
Food Stores 743.81 741.49 707.48 758.91 780.65 724.81 715.40 678.77 543.94 506.70 (4.18%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 125.10 122.57 113.22 94.17 96.93 76.69 74.28 74.55 63.41 57.11 (8.34%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 627.66 544.07 583.08 547.24 540.68 474.41 469.77 462.30 456.63 464.00 (3.30%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 152.46 146.97 120.36 104.99 170.53 161.76 129.23 158.77 272.49 287.43 7.30%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 549.84 529.87 481.78 572.36 574.20 581.59 274.56 300.60 472.32 390.11 (3.74%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 441.16 554.71 646.52 509.84 451.58 416.10 314.80 301.28 302.06 282.79 (4.82%)
Service Stations 696.81 615.53 723.29 693.96 692.67 613.15 543.63 627.66 595.86 579.02 (2.04%)
Other Retail Stores 390.25 462.63 446.24 563.31 635.07 555.40 469.12 430.34 465.21 482.39 2.38%
All Retail Stores 4,392.77 4,257.32 4,360.51 4,340.46 4.416.05 4,012.01 3,395.41 3.468.29 3.685.30 4.144.38 (0.64%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF VISTA, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Grovrth
Apparel Stores $124.84 $151.52 $171.41 $145.11 $119.09 $130.88 $137.17 $133.33 $151.72 $158.00 2.65% General Merchandise 2,272.54 1,624.99 1,369.54 1.284.12 1,608.61 1,370.24 1,276.63 1,460.14 1,438.05 4,463.31 7.79%
Drug Stores 763.95 799.50 938.22 981.94 1,000.21 983.08 1.126.15 1.076.59 1.117.08 959.45 2.56%
Food Stores 969.08 1.167.84 1,048.45 1.179.31 1,232.85 1,249.43 1.189.95 1.160.70 1,045.42 946.81 (0.26%) Packaged Liquor Stores 475.37 544.06 503.36 463.39 482.77 396.61 370.66 409.78 356.89 353.00 (3.25%) Eating and Drinking Stores 280.60 257.90 275.29 291.12 263.23 254.43 247.62 238.75 236.73 243.67 (1.56%) Home Furnishings and Appliances 210.67 224.25 214.04 199.98 306.73 254.60 254.55 290.88 580.33 659.86 13.53% Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1.139.67 1,231.94 1.352.78 1,988.10 1,616.51 1,559.53 761.15 826.11 1,431.49 1,362.83 2.01 % Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 591.68 752.33 932.21 771.95 730.99 717.28 547.97 565.46 580.55 483.45 (2.22%) Service Stations 1.222.11 1,113.08 1.607.82 1,517.71 1,725.02 1.930.08 1.695.45 2.099.93 2,134.25 2.022.78 5.76% Other Retail Stores 123.58 159.07 161.95 206.61 236.33 189.68 152.01 135.72 154.68 162.86 3.11%
All Retail Stores 455.25 474.57 509.04 536.20 537.48 494.00 413.92 413.77 460.22 520.31 1.50%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABLISHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE. CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment City
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
County I So. Cal. | State
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
City I County | So. Cal State
4>
Apparel Stores $155.97 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $234.03 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 537.41 961.37 849.26 888.63 2.822.36 4,384.27 3.608.86 3,699.52
Drug Stores 138.36 135.42 132.17 153.18 1,565.08 1,140.85 916.02 1,111.37
Food Stores 442.90 442.44 411.17 445.52 930.40 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 28.28 48.12 53.10 53.22 378.00 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 635.89 800.66 756.71 763.08 371.06 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 171.89 299.94 294.73 292.04 443.46 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 389.15 419.63 401.30 456.17 3,011.79 1,537.69 1,565.04 1.359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 299.63 985.75 949.30 969.88 759.67 1,756.13 1,641.26 1,615.19
Service Stations 375.15 484.66 525.74 516.74 1.451.74 1.843.46 1.811.23 1.676.80
Other Retail Stores 559.80 905.02 891.81 950.79 203.25 167.82 249.35 235.30
All Retail Stores 3,734.42 5,812.40 5,623.51 5.819.59 523.50 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Apparel Stores
General Merchandise
Drug Stores
Food Stores
Packaged Liquor Stores
Eating and Drinking Stores
Home Furnishings and Appliances
Building Materials and Farm Impl.
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies
Service Stations
Other Retail Stores
All Retail Stores
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual Potential* Actual 1 Potential*
$22,935 $48,577 $890,813 $893,362
79,026 130,673 2,599.872 2,403,168
20,346 22,525 366.214 414,257
65,128 65.514 1.196.519 1,204,841
4,158 7.826 130.120 143.923
93,508 112,211 2.165.277 2,063.636
25,277 42,944 811.149 789.774
57,224 67,080 1,134,817 1.233.654
44,061 142,620 2,665,811 2,622,885
55,166 75,986 1,310.698 1,397,435
82,318 139,813 2.447.483 2,571.260
549,147 855,770 15.718.773 15,738,195
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) % of Potent. ($000) 1 % of Potent.
($25,642) (52.79%) ($2,549) (0.29%)
(51,647) (39.52%) 196.704 8.19%
(2.179) (9.68%) (48.043) (11.60%)
(386) (0.59%) (8.322) (0.69%)
(3,668) (46.87%) (13.803) (9.59%)
(18,703) (16.67%) 101,641 4.93%
(17,667) (41.14%) 21,375 2.71%
(9,856) (14.69%) (98,837) (8.01%)
(98,559) (69.11%) 42,926 1.64%
(20,820) (27.40%) (86.737) (6.21%)
(57,495) (41.12%) (123.777) (4.81%)
(306,623) (35.83%) (19,422) (0.12%)
•Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mid-94 = 147,050 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94 = 2.704.350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE. CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
Actual Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
ON
Apparel Stores $22,935 $52,677 ($29,742) (56.46%)
General Merchandise 79,026 124.883 (45.857) (36.72%)
Drug Stores 20,346 19.435 911 4.69%
Food Stores 65,128 60,463 4.665 7.72%
Packaged Liquor Stores 4.158 7.808 (3.650) (46.74%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 93,508 111,274 (17.766) (15.97%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 25,277 43.341 (18.064) (41.68%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 57,224 59.011 (1.787) (3.03%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 44,061 139.595 (95,534) (68.44%)
Service Stations 55,166 77.310 (22,144) (28.64%)
Other Retail Stores 82.318 131.140 (48.822) (37.23%)
All Retail Stores 549.147 826,937 (277.790) (33.59%)
•Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 147.050 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $19,453 $17,925 $23,375 $24,071 $24,670 $25,105 $25,757 $23,418 $22,569 $22,935 1.85%
General Merchandise 48,163 49,983 68,007 75,625 81,018 82.884 82.081 86,873 82.672 79.026 5.66%
Drug Stores 13,768 17.476 20,553 21,731 23,317 22.944 23.797 24,193 20.642 20,346 4.43%
Food Stores 67,030 72,587 63,148 62,831 69,986 69.799 74,616 82,774 67,220 65,128 (0.32%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 6.494 6,461 6,905 8,288 7,093 5,858 5,923 5,965 4,640 4,158 (4.83%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 85.548 84,651 87,645 103,607 100,659 101,144 96,714 93,608 95,693 93,508 0.99%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 36.213 30,597 33.657 35,677 39.201 35.081 32,025 29,333 27.425 25,277 (3.92%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 10.063 34,023 51,914 62.611 72,858 74,812 67,049 64,352 58,810 57,224 21.30%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 51.030 53,129 57,174 69,218 63.775 52,740 41,938 42,143 43.404 44,061 (1.62%)
Service Stations 48.610 48,837 53,544 56.845 62.295 57,407 52,980 56,947 58.209 55.166 1.42%
Other Retail Stores 53.205 57,965 67,230 66.554 69.984 71,527 74,174 86,013 81,207 82.318 4.97%
All Retail Stores 439.576 473,634 533,153 587.060 614,856 599,300 577,053 595,619 562,491 549,147 2.50%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 3.24% 2.73% 3.22% 3.00% 2.78% 2.81% 2.89% 2.62% 2.54% 2.57% 2.84%
General Merchandise 2.36% 2.21% 2.67% 2.88% 2.97% 3.15% 3.30% 3.44% 3.30% 3.04% 2.93%
Drug Stores 4.74% 5.39% 5.89% 6.00% 6.39% 6.49% 6.43% 6.14% 5.61% 5.56% 5.87%
Food Stores 5.23% 5.12% 4.91% 4.78% 5.00% 5.11% 5.18% 5.45% 5.46% 5.44% 5.17%
Packaged Liquor Stores 4.05% 3.87% 3.49% 4.45% 4.01% 3.63% 3.65% 3.68% 3.32% 3.20% 3.73%
Eating and Drinking Stores 4.50% 4.32% 4.22% 4.77% 4.58% 4.57% 4.44% 4.34% 4.47% 4.32% 4.45%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 6.20% 4.95% 4.96% 4.94% 5.01% 4.41% 4.35% 4.09% 3.73% 3.12% 4.58%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1.16% 3.07% 4.35% 4.75% 4.83% 5.29% 5.70% 5.64% 5.05% 5.04% 4.49%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 1.93% 1.69% 1.85% 2.15% 2.01% 1.84% 1.71% 1.72% 1.66% 1.65% 1.82%
Service Stations 3.92% 4.44% 4.19% 4.47% 4.59% 4.25% 4.21% 4.15% 4.23% 4.21% 4.27%
Other Retail Stores 2.97% 2.94% 3.01% 2.85% 2.88% 2.95% 3.27% 3.77% 3.48% 3.36% 3.15%
All Retail Stores 3.27% 3.22% 3.42% 3.61% 3.63% 3.64% 3.75% 3.82% 3.63% 3.49% 3.55%
00
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $205.63 $181.52 $222.62 $213.58 $202.88 $193.27 $189.18 $167.15 $157.17 $155.97 (3.02%)
General Merchandise 509.12 506.16 647.68 671.03 666.26 638.06 602.87 620.08 575.71 537.41 0.60%
Drug Stores 145.54 176.97 195.75 192.83 191.75 176.63 174.79 172.68 143.74 138.36 (0.56%)
Food Stores 708.56 735.06 601.41 557.51 575.54 537.33 548.04 590.82 468.11 442.90 (5.09%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 68.65 65.43 65.77 73.54 58.33 45.09 43.51 42.57 32.31 28.28 (9.39%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 904.31 857.23 834.72 919.32 827.79 778.63 710.35 668.15 666.39 635.89 (3.84%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 382.80 309.84 320.54 316.57 322.38 270.06 235.22 209.37 190.98 171.89 (8.51%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 106.37 344.53 494.42 555.56 599.16 575.92 492.46 459.33 409.54 389.15 15.50%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 539.43 538.01 544.52 614.18 524.47 406.01 308.03 300.81 302.26 299.63 (6.32%)
Service Stations 513.84 494.56 509.94 504.39 512.29 441.93 389.13 406.47 405.35 375.15 (3.44%)
Other Retail Stores 562.42 586.99 640.29 590.54 575.53 550.63 544.79 613.94 565.51 559.80 (0.05%)
All Retail Stores 4.646.68 4,796.29 5,077.64 5,209.05 5,056.38 4.613.55 4.238.36 4.251.38 3,917.07 3,734.42 (2.40%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF OCEANSIDE. CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $486.32 $358.50 $425.00 $353.98 $357.54 $339.26 $296.06 $263.13 $207.06 $234.03 (7.81%)
General Mercharulise 2.408.15 3.123.93 4.250.41 4,201.38 3.857.99 3.946.88 4.560.03 4,572.27 3,306.89 2,822.36 1.78%
Drug Stores 1.720.99 2,184.51 2.569.16 1,975.59 1.793.61 1.638.83 1,699.79 1,728.05 1,474.40 1,565.08 (1.05%)
Food Stores 1,241.29 1,251.50 1,088.76 1,030.02 1.186.20 1,107.92 1,097.29 1,182.49 1,050.32 930.40 (3.15%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 541.18 497.03 531.19 592.02 545.65 418.40 394.90 458.81 386.69 378.00 (3.91%)
, Eating and Drinking Stores 472.64 457.57 447.17 477.45 463.87 437.85 398.00 354.58 373.80 371.06 (2.65%)
' Home Furnishings and Appliances 502.95 402.59 467.46 548.88 544.46 461.59 457.50 431.36 464.82 443.46 (1.39%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 529.61 1,701.13 2.732.33 2.845.97 3,469.42 2.770.81 2,394.60 3,064.38 3,095.28 3,011.79 21.30%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 945.01 1.041.74 1.191.13 1.281.82 1.328.65 925.27 723.07 679.72 723.40 759.67 (2.40%)
Service Stations 1.279.20 1.220.94 1,245.20 1.353.46 1.448.71 1.400.16 1,324.51 1,388.95 1,531.81 1,451.74 1.42%
Other Retail Stores 286.05 297.26 271.09 269.45 275.53 241.65 222.08 241.61 219.48 203.25 (3.73%)
All Retail Stores 642.66 665.22 687.05 716.80 740.79 655.69 591.85 585.66 548.24 523.50 (2.25%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABLISHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
City County So. Cal. State City
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
I County I So. Cal | State
Apparel Stores $235.24 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $381.45 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 961.37 849.26 888.63 4.384.27 3.608.86 3.699.52
Drug Stores 191.09 135.42 132.17 153.18 1,283.71 1.140.85 916.02 1.111.37
Food Stores 507.71 442.44 411.17 445.52 702.21 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 23.80 48.12 53.10 53.22 223.80 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 795.94 800.66 756.71 763.08 328.32 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1,067.24 299.94 294.73 292.04 687.49 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1,038.36 419.63 401.30 456.17 1,109.75 1,537.69 1,565.04 1,359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 261.92 985.75 949.30 969.88 492.68 1,756.13 1,641.26 1.615.19
Service Stations 452.99 484.66 525.74 516.74 1,253.06 1.843.46 1,811.23 1.676.80
Other Retail Stores 2.057.48 905.02 891.81 950.79 471.97 167.82 249.35 235.30
All Retail Stores 6.631.77 5,812.40 5.623.51 5.819.59 556.89 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
CO
Type of Retail Establishment
Apparel Stores
General Merchandise
Drug Stores
Food Stores
Packaged Liquor Stores
Eating and Drinking Stores
Home Furnishings and Appliances
Building Materials and Farm Impl.
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies
Service Stations
Other Retail Stores
All Retail Stores
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual Potential* Actual Potential*
$11,062 $15,534 $890,813 $893,362
41.788 2,599,872 2,403.168
8.986 7,203 366,214 414,257
23.875 20,951 1,196,519 1.204.841
1.119 2.503 130,120 143,923
37,429 35.884 2,165,277 2,063.636
50.187 13.733 811,149 789.774
48,829 21.452 1,134,817 1,233.654
12,317 45,608 2.665,811 2,622,885
21.302 24.300 1,310.698 1,397.435
96.753 44.711 2.447,483 2.571,260
311,859 273,666 15.718,773 15,738,195
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) % of Potent. ($000) 1 % of Potent.
($4,472) (28.79%) ($2,549) (0.29%)
196,704 8.19%
1,783 24.75% (48.043) (11.60%)
2,924 13.96% (8,322) (0.69%)
(1,384) (55.29%) (13,803) (9.59%)
1,545 4.31% 101,641 4.93%
36,454 265.45% 21,375 2.71%
27,377 127.62% (98.837) (8.01%)
(33.291) (72.99%) 42,926 1.64%
(2.998) (12.34%) (86,737) (6.21%)
52.042 116.40% (123,777) (4.81 %)
38,193 13.96% (19,422) (0.12%)
*Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mid-94 « 47,025 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94 = 2,704,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
Actual Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
00
to
Apparel Stores $11,062 $16,845 ($5,783) (34.33%)
General Merchandise 39,936
Drug Stores 8,986 6,215 2.771 44.58%
Food Stores 23,875 19,335 4.540 23.48%
Packaged Liquor Stores 1.119 2,497 (1.378) (55.18%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 37,429 35.584 1.845 5.18%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 50,187 13,860 36.327 262.10%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 48,829 18,871 29,958 158.75%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 12,317 44,641 (32,324) (72.41%)
Service Stations 21,302 24,723 (3,421) (13.84%)
Other Retail Stores 96,753 41.937 54,816 130.71%
All Retail Stores 311,859 264,445 47,414 17.93%
*Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 47,025 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 • 1994
CITY OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $1,161 $3,241 $3,737 $3,542 $3,744 $4,943 $5,823 $8,303 $11,778 $11,062 28.46%
General Merchandise 81,269 93,186 108,037
Drug Stores 5.671 7.524 8,517 9.546 9,033 8,614 9,420 9,742 9.342 8,986 5.25%
Food Stores 19.654 22,051 25.258 23.933 25.421 25.341 27.011 29,591 24.460 23.875 2.19%
Packaged Liquor Stores 3,247 1,105 1,085 1,344 1,256 1,174 1,119
Eating and Drinking Stores 25.516 31,302 38.454 39,167 39.796 40,165 38.947 37,590 37.650 37.429 4.35%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 24,634 35,729 45.450 58,517 70,584 64,328 53,961 53,513 47,889 50.187 8.23%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 44,845 66,981 72.291 71,961 86,016 75,377 56,034 53,356 47,809 48.829 0.95%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 9,146 14,518 18.294 19,112 18,057 12.578 13.157 13.545 17,762 12.317 3.36%
Service Stations 16,715 14,880 14.193 15,019 17.982 19.852 17.994 21.545 22,061 21.302 2.73%
Other Retail Stores 31,588 41,581 56.117 172.272 155.190 168.988 153.039 147.168 105,939 96.753 13.24%
All Retail Stores 260,199 330,991 390.347 416,317 426.929 421,270 376.731 375,610 325,864 311.859 2.03%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 198S -1994
cmr OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 0.19% 0.49% 0.52% 0.44% 0.42% 0.55% 0.65% 0.93% 1.32% 1.24% 0.68%
General Merchandise 3.97% 4.12% 4.25% 4.11%
Drug Stores 1.95% 2.32% 2.44% 2.64% 2.48% 2.44% 2.54% 2.47% 2.54% 2.45% 2.43%
Food Stores 1.53% 1.56% 1.96% 1.82% 1.82% 1.86% 1.87% 1.95% 1.99% 2.00% 1.84%
Packaged Liquor Stores 1.74% 0.62% 0.67% 0.83% 0.78% 0.84% 0.86% 0.91%
Eating and Drinking Stores 1.34% 1.60% 1.85% 1.80% 1.81% 1.81% 1.79% 1.74% 1.76% 1.73% 1.72%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 4.22% 5.78% 6.70% 8.10% 9.02% 8.09% 7.33% 7.46% 6.51% 6.19% 6.94%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 5.18% 6.04% 6.06% 5.46% 5.70% 5.33% 4.77% 4.68% 4.11% 4.30% 5.16%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 0.35% 0.46% 0.59% 0.59% 0.57% 0.44% 0.54% 0.55% 0.68% 0.46% 0.52%
Service Stations 1.35% 1.35% 1.11% 1.18% 1.33% 1.47% 1.43% 1.57% 1.60% 1.63% 1.40%
Other Retail Stores 1.76% 2.11% 2.51% 7.37% 6.38% 6.97% 6.74% 6.45% 4.55% 3.95% 4.88%
All Retail Stores 1.98% 2.31% 2.55% 2.61% 2.55% 2.57% 2.45% 2.41% 2.10% 1.98% 2.35%
00
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEAR*; 1986 - 1994
CITY OF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1SS8 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $56.72 $161.45 $150.52 $117.77 $'PH.77 $126.17 $139.98 $190.12 $260.13 $235.24 17.12%
General Merchandiae 3.969.19 4.641.89 4,351.94
Drug Stores 276.96 374.79 343.09 317.41 255.16 219.88 226.43 223.05 206.33 191.09 (4.04%)
Food Stores 959.91 1.098.41 1.017.46 795.78 713.11 646.86 649.30 677.53 540.26 507.71 (6.83%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 107.98 31.23 27.70 32.30 28.77 25.92 23.80
Eating and Drinking Stores 1.246.19 1.559.23 1.548.99 1.302.30 1,124.19 1.025.26 936.23 860.67 831.59 795.94 (4.86%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1,203.11 1.779.75 1,830.82 1.945.72 11993.91 1,642.07 1.297.15 1,225.26 1.057.74 1,067.24 (1.32%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 2.190.23 3,336.54 2.912.01 2,392.73 2.429.84 1.924.12 1.346.97 1,221.65 1.055.06 1,038.36 (7.96%)
Autc Dealers and Auto Supplies 446.71 723.17 736.91 635.47 510.09 321.08 316.28 310.13 392.32 261.92 (5.76%)
Service Stations 816.35 741.21 571.72 499.40 507.96 506.74 432.55 493.30 487.26 452.99 (6.33%)
Other Retail Stores 1.642.76 2.071.27 2.260.49 5,728.08 4,383.88 4,313.67 3,678.83 3,369.63 2.339.91 2.057.48 3.25%
All Retail Stores 12.708.15 16,487.72 15.723.93 13,842.62 12,060.14 10,753.54 9.056.03 8,600.11 7.197.43 6,631.77 (6.97%)
Source: Alfrfi Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY CF SAN MARCOS, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1390 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $105.58 $324.12 $311.39 $272.46 $249.63 $290.74 $323.51 $415.17 $406.12 $381.45 15.34%
General Merchandise 13.544.88 23.2Sti.48 27.009.22
Drug Stores 945.14 1,254.00 1,703.43 1.591.01 1,505.43 1.435.64 1,569.94 1.623.62 1,334.54 1.283.71 3.46%
Food Stores 614.19 711.31 789.32 598.33 706.14 745^32 730.03 657.58 543.57 702.21 1.50%
Packaged Liquor Stores 811.85 184.24 155.00 191.98 251.27 234.72 223.80
Eating and Drinking Stores 364.51 406.51 436.97 412.28 401.98 431.88 397.42 375.90 339.19 328.32 (1.15%)
Hone Furnishings and Appliances 724.52 940.22 988.04 1.170.35 1.176.41 974.67 793.55 713.51 630.12 687.49 (0.58%)
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1,180.13 1.970.03 2.190.62 1.998.92 2,389.34 1.-752.96 1,245.20 1.185.68 1,039.32 1,109.75 (0.68%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 538.02 806.53 914.69 955.58 859,fi7 628.91 548.22 615.68 807.37 492.68 (0.97%)
Service Stations 1.392.90 1.239.99 1.290.27 1,366.40 1.997.96 1,985.16 1,799.39 1,436.33 1,470.72 1.253.06 (1.17%)
Other Retail Stores 339.66 420.01 496.61 1,435.60 1,i.71.66 1.119.13 910.95 778.67 5 16.78 471.97 3.72%
All Retail Stores 815.67 996.96 1,057.85 1,046.02 1.021.36 934.08 775.17 710.04 572.70 556.89 (4.15%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA AND PER ESTABLISHMENT
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO. CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
City I County | So. Cal." State
Taxable Retail Sales Per Establishment (000)
City County I So. Cal State
00 00
Apparel Stores $563.00 $329.40 $358.22 $330.34 $399.32 $298.43 $368.65 $370.12
General Merchandise 2,263.56 961.37 849.26 888.63 9.930.33 4,384.27 3,608.86 3.699.52
Drug Stores 172.10 135.42 132.17 153.18 1,274.06 1,140.85 916.02 1,111.37
Food Stores 648.36 442.44 411.17 445.52 948.12 686.47 611.35 590.67
Packaged Liquor Stores 54.34 48.12 53.10 53.22 306.52 368.61 300.27 318.96
Eating and Drinking Stores 766.98 800.66 756.71 763.08 372.33 385.08 364.87 350.74
Home Furnishings and Appliances 422.40 299.94 294.73 292.04 505.38 403.36 459.21 414.41
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1,024.18 419.63 401.30 456.17 2,426.28 1,537.69 1.565.04 1,359.51
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 2,567.75 985.75 949.30 969.88 2.869.34 1.756.13 1,641.26 1.615.19
Service Stations 681.65 484.66 525.74 516.74 1.835.02 1,843.46 1,811.23 1.676.80
Other Retail Stores 1.228.81 905.02 891.81 950.79 243.81 167.82 249.35 235.30
All Retail Stores 10,393.12 5.812.40 5,623.51 5.819.59 847.84 504.13 584.68 561.90
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
City County
Actual 1 Potential* Actual 1 Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
City County
($000) 1 % of Potent. ($000) 1 % of Potent.
00
Apparel Stores $66,687 $39,129 $890,813 $893,362 $27,558 70.43% ($2,549) (0.29%)
General Merchandise 268.119 105,258 2.599.872 2,403,168 162.861 154.72% 196.704 8.19%
Drug Stores 20.385 18.144 366.214 414,257 2.241 12.35% (48.043) (11.60%)
Food Stores 76,798 52.772 1,196,519 1.204.841 24.026 45.53% (8.322) (0.69%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 6.437 6,304 130.120 143.923 133 2.11% (13.803) (9.59%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 90,849 90,387 2.165,277 2,063.636 462 0.51% 101.641 4.93%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 50.033 34,592 811,149 789,774 15,441 44.64% 21,375 2.71%
Building Materials and Farm impl. 121.314 54,034 1,134,817 1.233,654 67,280 124.51% (98,837) (8.01%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 304,150 114,882 2,665,811 2,622,885 189,268 164.75% 42,926 1.64%
Service Stations 80.741 61,207 1,310,698 1.397.435 19,534 31.91% (86,737) (6.21%)
Other Retail Stores 145.552 112.621 2,447.483 2.571.260 32,931 29.24% (123.777) (4.81%)
All Retail Stores 1,231,065 689.330 15.718.773 15.738.195 541,735 78.59% (19.422) (0.12%)
*Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the State of California and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city and county.
City popul. est. for mid-94 = 118,450 persons.
County popul. est. for mid-94 = 2.704,350 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES FLOWS
YEAR 1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
Type of Retail Establishment
Taxable Retail Sales ($000)
Actual Potential*
Inflow or (Outflow) of Taxable Retail Sales
($000) % of Potent.
vo o
Apparel Stores $66,687 $42,432 $24,255 57.16%
General Merchandise 268.119 100.595 167.524 166.53%
Drug Stores 20.385 15,655 4.730 30.21%
Food Stores 76.798 48.703 28,095 57.69%
Packaged Liquor Stores 6.437 6,289 148 2.35%
Eating and Drinking Stores 90.849 89,632 1,217 1.36%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 50,033 34,911 15,122 43.31%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 121.314 47,534 73,780 155.22%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 304,150 112,445 191,705 170.49%
Service Stations 80.741 62,274 18,467 29.65%
Other Retail Stores 145.552 105.634 39,918 37.79%
All Retail Stores 1.231.065 666.105 564,960 84.82%
*Based on the overall average per capita retail sales for the County and the estimated mid-1994 population base for the city.
City popul. est. for mid-1994 = 118,450 persons.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985 - 1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $37,615 $65,812 $80,321 $80,730 $85,420 $83,494 $78,340 $76,407 $69,324 $66,687 6.57%
General Merchandise 64.559 180,264 262,885 291,822 311,677 298.888 276,704 276.989 262.054 268,119 17.14%
Drug Stores 15.693 18.067 18,612 19.058 19,700 18.358 20,037 21.699 20.680 20.385 2.95%
Food Stores 86.659 95,579 81,031 85.039 91,185 90,359 94,386 98,278 76.712 76.798 (1.33%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 9,979 9,811 9,754 9,416 9,912 7,613 7.168 6,211 6.437 (4.75%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 79.084 87,034 99,582 98.332 101,488 105.148 96,335 92,815 90,578 90.849 1.55%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 30.733 28,850 32,801 35.549 43,745 44,706 48,251 47,841 42,847 50,033 5.56%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 112,032 109,652 121,493 141,516 230,040 173.141 129,426 119,022 120.235 121,314 0.89%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 274,545 364,353 360,904 384,336 372,226 316,801 293.517 304,263 316,645 304,150 1.14%
Service Stations 68,094 60,374 67,188 68.537 76.513 82,106 68.586 79,861 80.550 80,741 1.91%
Other Retail Stores 80.933 117,245 137,093 153.733 179.495 170.864 151.305 152,744 148.603 145.552 6.74%
All Retail Stores 859.927 1,137,042 1.271.663 1.368.068 1.521.401 1.383.865 1.264.501 1.277.087 1.234.439 1.231.065 4.07%
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 198S - 1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
(City as a percentage of County)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Average
1985-94
Apparel Stores 6.27% 10.03% 11.07% 10.07% 9.64% 9.33% 8.79% 8.55% 7.79% 7.49% 8.90%
General Merchandise 3.16% 7.98% 10.33% 11.11% 11.44% 11.34% 11.11% 10.97% 10.46% 10.31% 9.82%
Drug Stores 5.41% 5.58% 5.33% 5.26% 5.40% 5.19% 5.41% 5.51% 5.63% 5.57% 5.43%
Food Stores 6.77% 6.74% 6.30% 6.47% 6.52% 6.62% 6.55% 6.47% 6.23% 6.42% 6.51%
Packaged Liquor Stores 6.22% 5.88% 4.93% 5.05% 5.60% 4.69% 4.42% 4.44% 4.95% 5.13%
Eating and Drinking Stores 4.16% 4.44% 4.79% 4.53% 4.62% 4.75% 4.42% 4.30% 4.23% 4.20% 4.44%
Home Furnishings and Appliances 5.27% 4.67% 4.84% 4.92% 5.59% 5.62% 6.55% 6.67% 5.83% 6.17% 5.61%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 12.93% 9.88% 10.19% 10.74% 15.26% 12.23% 11.01% 10.44% 10.33% 10.69% 11.37%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 10.39% 11.57% 11.70% 11.94% 11.75% 11.08% 11.97% 12.44% 12.08% 11.41% 11.63%
Service Stations 5.49% 5.48% 5.25% 5.39% 5.64% 6.08% 5.45% 5.82% 5.86% 6.16% 5.66%
Other Retail Stores 4.52% 5.94% 6.14% 6.58% 7.38% 7.04% 6.67% 6.69% 6.38% 5.95% 6.33%
All Retail Stores 6.45% 7.71% 8.12% 8.37% 8.95% 8.39% 8.18% 8.17% 7.95% 7.83% 8.01%
N5
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 198S -1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $482.55 $790.53 $899.45 $840.06 $841.58 $764.25 $701.03 $669.65 $597.11 $563.00 1.73%
General Merchandise 828.21 2,165.33 2,943.85 3,036.65 3,070.71 2,735.82 2.476.10 2.427.60 2,257.14 2,263.56 11.82%
Drug Stores 201.33 217.03 208.42 198.31 194.09 168.04 179.31 190.18 178.12 172.10 (1.73%)
Food Stores 1,111.73 1,148.09 907.40 884.90 898.37 827.09 844.62 861.33 660.74 648.36 (5.82%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 128.02 117.85 109.23 97.98 97.65 68.13 62.82 53.50 54.34 (9.08%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 1,014.54 1.045.45 1,115.14 1,023.23 999.88 962.45 862.06 813.45 780.17 766.98 (3.06%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 394.27 346.55 367.31 369.91 430.98 409.21 431.78 419.29 369.05 422.40 0.77%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 1,437.23 1,317.14 1,360.51 1.472.59 2,266.41 1,584.81 1.158.18 1,043.14 1,035.62 1,024.18 (3.69%)
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 3.522.07 4,376.62 4,041.47 3.999.34 3,667.25 2,899.78 2.626.55 2.666.63 2,727.35 2.567.75 (3.45%)
Service Stations 873.56 725.21 752.39 713.18 753.83 751.54 613.74 699.92 693.80 681.65 (2.72%)
Other Retail Stores 1.038.26 1,408.35 1,535.20 1.599.72 1,768.42 1,563.97 1.353.96 1.338.68 1,279.96 1.228.81 1.89%
All Retail Stores 11.031.77 13,658.16 14.240.35 14.235.88 14.989.17 12.666.96 11.315.44 11.192.70 10,632.55 10.393.12 (0.66%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES PER ESTABLISHMENT BY STORE TYPE
YEARS 1985-1994
CITY OF ESCONDIDO, CALIFORNIA
(Constant 1994 Dollars in Thousands)
Type of Retail Establishment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Com-
pounded
Growth
Apparel Stores $508.31 $483.91 $495.81 $483.41 $499.53 $521.84 $489.63 $486.67 $436.00 $399.32 (2.65%)
General Merchandise 2,582.37 5.462.53 7.302.37 8.843.10 10.747.50 11.495.71 10.248.28 10.653.42 10.918.93 9.930.33 16.14%
Drug Stores 1,120.96 1,389.80 1.550.96 1,361.27 1,407.14 1.223.87 1.335.82 1.549.95 1,477.13 1,274.06 1.43%
Food Stores 1,468.80 1.448.16 1.306.95 1.037.06 1,125.74 1.075.71 1.179.83 1.142.77 924.24 948.12 (4.75%)
Packaged Liquor Stores 475.19 577.13 513.38 448.39 450.52 331.01 325.82 326.90 306.52 (4.75%)
Eating and Drinking Stores 444.29 435.17 432.96 414.90 422.87 422.28 390.02 381.96 374.29 372.33 (1.94%)
Home Furnishings and Appliances 394.02 331.61 364.45 351.97 428.87 392.16 438.65 434.92 446.32 505.38 2.80%
Building Materials and Farm Impl. 2.334.00 2.108.69 2.169.52 2.721.46 4.260.00 2.985.19 2.488.97 2.088.10 2.186.09 2.426.28 0.43%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies 3.307.77 4,794.12 4,511.29 4.417.66 4.002.43 3.265.99 2.906.11 2.982.97 2.905.00 2.869.34 (1.57%)
Service Stations 1.238.08 1,139.13 1.267.70 1.370.74 1,594.03 1.824.58 1,632.99 1.947.83 1.873.25 1,835.02 4.47%
Other Retail Stores 288.02 339.84 336.84 371.34 418.40 345.18 280.71 278.73 268.72 243.81 (1.83%)
All Retail Stores 938.78 1.054.77 1.053.57 1.087.49 1.185.82 1.014.56 905.80 908.31 883.64 847.84 (1.13%)
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates; California State Board of Equalization
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
APPENDIX B
DEMAND ANALYSES
1
I
ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES
1
APPENDIX B
DEMAND ANALYSES
Exhibits B-1 and B-2 are standard output of one of the analytical techniques
employed by the Consultants to evaluate retail commercial sites. The logic of the
analyses summarized in these exhibits is based on a normative estimate of support
potential defined by the level of the trade area population - a simple definition of
demand used to establish analytical perspective. The system compares the demand
estimates with the existing inventory of retail floor space by type within the trade area
being analyzed. More sophisticated analyses were developed in the text of this report
embodying several modifications regarding population threshold levels, distance-
adjusted impacts, outleakage characteristics, market share by merchant, income
adjustments, etc. Materials in Exhibits B-1 and B-2, however, are a useful first
approximation of the general supply and demand balance for retail floor space in the
trade area of interest. The competitive inventory data are a useful summary of the
supply side of the market equation. These techniques have been applied literally
hundreds of times over the past 30 years to retail sites throughout the U.S.
95
EXHIBIT B-1
DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL SHOPPING CENTERS (TWO-MILE TRADE AREA)
CARLSBAD, CA
vo
OV
Supply in Residual Average Percent
Demanded Trade Area Demand Store Size Capture Feasible Store
Type of Store (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Required Type?
Lumber & Building Materials 6,413 0 6,413 10,000 156 No
Heating & Plumbing 1,506 0 1,506 3,700 246 No
Paint. Glass & Wallpaper 2,119 0 2,119 3,600 170 No
Electrical Supply 323 0 323 3,000 929 No
Hardware 7,272 0 7.272 5,000 69 No
Total Home Improvement 17,633 0 17,633 32,000 181 No
Department Stores 77,971 83,749 -5,778 22,000 0 No
Variety Stores 13,897 0 13,897 12,000 86 No
Misc General Merchandise 2,431 0 2,431 3.300 136 No
Drug Stores 16,440 21,712 -5,272 6,000 - 13,200 0 No - No
Total Gen'l Mdse & Drug 110.739 105,461 5,278 35,000 663 No
Grocery Stores 51.315 128,173 -76,858 30,000 0 No
Meat, Poultry & Fish 2.342 4,877 -2,535 1,625 0 No
Fruit & Vegetable 457 2.350 -1,893 1,500 0 No
Candy & Nut 881 0 881 1,200 136 No
Dairy 1,193 0 1,193 1.200 101 No
Bakeries 4.305 3,655 650 1,400 215 No
Misc Food Stores 1.528 24,593 -23,065 1.600 0 No
Motor Vehicle 22,518 • __ 9.500 — No
Tires. Batteries & Accessories 10,038 0 10.038 3,200 32 Yes
Misc Auto & Boat 3.034 0 3,034 2,500 82 No
Men's & Boy's Apparel 6,190 0 6,190 3,000 48 Yes
Women's Apparel 6,268 0 6,268 2,000 32 Yes
Women's Accessories 993 0 993 1.600 161 No
Children's Clothing 390 0 390 1,600 410 No
Family Clothing 1,796 0 1,796 4,500 251 No
Shoes 5,844 0 5.844 2.600 44 Yes
Tailor 368 1,780 -1,412 600 0 No
Furniture 18,213 985 17,228 5.000 29 Yes
Appliances 3,335 0 3,335 2,300 69 No
Radio & TV 3,870 776 3,094 1,900 61 No
Music 1,651 5,194 -3,543 1,800 0 No
Eating & Drinking 33,459 98,620 -65,161 1,200 - 5,000 0 No - No
7/3/96
CRLSBAD2.XLS
Exhibit B-1 (Cont'd)
DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL SHOPPING CENTERS (TWO-MILE TRADE AREA)
CARLSBAD, CA
PAGE 2
vo
Supply in Residual Average Percent
Demanded Trade Area Demand Store Size Capture Feasible Store
Type of Store (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Required Type?
Liquor Stores 7,194 0 7,194 2,500 35 Yes
Antique & Secondhand 3.134 4.539 -1,405 1,000 0 No
Book & Stationery 3.435 1.403 2,032 2,800 138 No
Sporting Goods 1.885 5.196 -3,311 2,400 0 No
Jewelry 1.528 2,493 -965 1,200 0 No
Florists 892 3.517 -2,625 1,240 0 No
Nurseries 7,093 7.796* -703 1,400 - 6,000 0 No - No
Hobby, Toy & Game 792 1.776 -984 2.100 - 4,200 0 No - No
Camera & Photo 402 2,413 -2,011 1,600 0 No
Gift & Novelty 613 4,332 -3,719 2,310 0 No
Other Misc Retail 3,279 4,590 -1,311 1,300 0 No
Banks 9,826 20,049 -10,223 2,700 0 No
Savings & Loan 1,283 7,517 -6,234 2.300 0 No
Personal Finance 3,167 0 • 3,167 1,300 41 Yes
Insurance Agents 4,528 0 * 4,528 800 18 Yes
Real Estate 2,599 12.205 * -9,606 1,400 0 No
Coin Laundries 1,405 0 1.405 1,900 135 No
Photo Studios 848 0 848 1,300 153 No
Beauty Shops 6,246 8.838 -2.592 1,200 0 No
Barber Shops 2,509 0 2.509 650 26 Yes
Shoe Repair 390 0 390 700 179 No
Cleaning Pickup 1,851 7.394 -5,543 1,500 0 No
Legal Offices 836 0 * 836 1.200 144 No
Medical Offices 15.793 14.575 • 1,218 1.300 107 No
Accounting Offices 4.305 0 • 4,305 670 16 Yes
Travel Agents 546 1.968 -1,422 1,200 0 No
Equipment Rental 1,271 0 1.271 2,000 157 No
Electrical Repair 2.944 0 2,944 1.400 48 Yes
Auto Repair 15.280 1,240 14,040 3,000 21 Yes
Furniture Repair 1,205 0 1,205 800 66 No
Misc Other Repair 2,788 0 2,788 800 29 Yes
Theaters (6 Screens) 3,625 22,800 -19,175 11.200 0 No
Bowling Alleys 4.060 0 4,060 20,600 507 No
'Includes a large number of area competitors, negating potential at subject site.
'Does not include supply located in multi-tenant office buildings or upstairs space in retail centers.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates.
7/3/96
EXHIBIT B-2
DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL SHOPPING CENTERS (EXTENDED TRADE AREA)
CARLSBAD. CA
vo
00
Supply in Residual Average Percent
Demanded Trade Area Demand Store Size Capture Feasible Store
Type of Store (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Required Type?
Lumber & Building Materials 17,121 0 17,121 10,000 58 Mar
Heating & Plumbing 4,020 0 4,020 3,700 92 No
Paint. Glass & Wallpaper 5,657 0 5,657 3,600 64 No
Electrical Supply 863 0 863 3,000 348 No
Hardware 19,413 0 19,413 5,000 26 Yes
Total Home Improvement 47,074 0 47,074 32.000 68 No
Department Stores 208,157 83,749 124,408 22,000 18 Yes
Variety Stores 37,100 0 37,100 12,000 32 Yes
Misc General Merchandise 6,491 3,782 2,709 3,300 122 No
Drug Stores 43,888 21,712 22,176 6.000 - 13,200 27 - 60 Yes - Mar
Total Gen'l Mdse & Drug 295,636 109,243 186,393 35,000 19 Yes
Grocery Stores 136.995 159.697 -22,702 30,000 0 No
Meat. Poultry & Fish 6.253 4.877 1,376 1,625 118 No
Fruit & Vegetable 1.221 2,350 -1,129 1,500 0 No
Candy & Nut 2,352 0 2,352 1,200 51 Mar
Dairy 3,186 0 3,186 1,200 38 Yes
Bakeries 11,493 3,655 7,838 1,400 18 Yes
Misc Food Stores 4,079 24,593 -20,514 1,600 0 No
Motor Vehicle 60.116 « 9.500 No
Tires, Batteries & Accessories 26,798 0 26,798 3,200 12 Yes
Misc Auto & Boat 8.099 0 8,099 2,500 31 Yes
Men's & Boy's Apparel 16,525 0 16,525 3,000 18 Yes
Women's Apparel 16.734 1.058 15,676 2,000 13 Yes
Women's Accessories 2,650 0 2.650 1,600 60 Mar
Children's Clothing 1,042 986 56 1,600 2857 No
Family Clothing 4,794 0 4,794 4.500 94 No
Shoes 15,602 0 15,602 2.600 17 Yes
Tailor 983 2.710 -1.727 600 0 No
Furniture 48,623 6,086 42,537 5,000 12 Yes
Appliances 8,903 0 8,903 2.300 26 Yes
Radio & TV 10,332 776 9,556 1,900 20 Yes
Music 4,407 5,194 -787 1,800 0 No
Eating & Drinking 89,325 104,424 -15,099 1,200 - 5,000 0 No - No
7/3/96
CRLSBA01.XLS
Exhibit B-2 (Cont'd)
DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL SHOPPING CENTERS (EXTENDED TRADE AREA)
CARLSBAD, CA
PAGE 2
Supply in Residual Average Percent
vo vo
Demanded Trade Area Demand Store Size Capture Feasible Stoi
Type of Store (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Required Type?
Liquor Stores 19,205 0 19,205 2,500 13 Yes
Antique & Secondhand 8,367 4.539 3,828 1,000 26 Yes
Book & Stationery 9,171 2,643 6,528 2,800 43 Yes
Sporting Goods 5,032 5,196 -164 2,400 0 No
Jewelry 4,079 2.493 1,586 1,200 76 No
Florists 2,382 4.615 -2,233 1.240 0 No
Nurseries 18,937 7.796* 11,141 1.400 - 6,000 13 - 54 Yes -
Hobby, Toy & Game 2,114 1,776 338 2,100 - 4.200 621 - 1243 No -
Camera & Photo 1,072 3,133 -2.061 1,600 0 No
Gift & Novelty 1,638 6.564 -4.926 2,310 0 No
Other Misc Retail 8,754 5,508 3,246 1.300 40 Yes
Banks 26.232 31,430 -5,198 2.700 0 No
Savings & Loan 3,424 12,911 -9,487 2.300 0 No
Personal Finance 8,456 0 * 8,456 1,300 15 Yes
Insurance Agents 12,089 0 • 12,089 800 7 Yes
Real Estate 6,938 13.913 • -6,975 1.400 0 No
Coin Laundries 3,752 0 3,752 1.900 51 Mar
Photo Studios 2,263 0 2,263 1,300 57 Mar
Beauty Shops 16,674 13.245 3,429 1,200 35 Yes
Barber Shops 6,699 0 6.699 650 10 Yes
Shoe Repair 1,042 992 50 700 1400 No
Cleaning Pickup 4,943 8,402 -3,459 1.500 0 No
Legal Offices 2,233 0 ' 2,233 1,200 54 Mar
Medical Offices 42,161 23.873 • 18,288 1,300 7 Yes
Accounting Offices 11,493 0 * 11,493 670 6 Yes
Travel Agents 1,459 4.186 -2,727 1,200 0 No
Equipment Rental 3,394 2,684 710 2,000 282 No
Electrical Repair 7.861 0 7.861 1,400 18 Yes
Auto Repair 40,792 1.240 39,552 3,000 8 Yes
Furniture Repair 3.216 0 3.216 800 25 Yes
Misc Other Repair 7,444 0 7,444 800 11 Yes
Theaters (6 Screens) 9,677 22,800 -13,123 11.200 0 No
Bowling Alleys 10,838 0 10,838 20.600 190 No
'Includes a large number of area competitors, negating potential at subject site.
'Does not include supply located in multi-tenant office buildings or upstairs space in retail centers.
Source: Alfred Gobar Associates.
7/3/96
mmSBAD^y^