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HomeMy WebLinkAbout; ; FISCAL YEAR 2014-15 GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN MONITORING REPORT; 2014-07-01 CITY OF CARLSBAD Fiscal Year 2014-15 Growth Management Plan Monitoring Report July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2015 Carlsbad City Council Matt Hall, Mayor Mark Packard Keith Blackburn Lorraine Wood Michael Schumacher Report prepared in cooperation with the following departments: Community and Economic Development Fire Parks & Recreation Library and Cultural Arts Transportation Utilities Carlsbad Municipal Water District 2 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide information regarding the status of the Carlsbad Growth Management Plan (GMP) for the calendar year covering July 1, 2014 – June 30, 2015, and to verify that the plan is continuing to accomplish its stated objectives. The primary objectives of the GMP are to ensure that adequate public facilities are provided concurrent with growth, and to assure compliance with the ultimate dwelling unit limitations that were established by Proposition E, which was passed by voters in 1986. Performance Standards Proposition E established broad guidelines for determining adequacy of public facilities. These guidelines are further defined in the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan (Sept. 16, 1986) by means of specific performance standards for each of the eleven public facilities. These public facilities, their performance standards, current status, and anticipated adequacy at buildout are outlined in Table 1 and Table 2, as follows: Table 1 Performance Standards Public Facility Performance Standard More Information on Page City Administrative Facilities 1,500 sq. ft. per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. 12 Library 800 sq. ft. (of library space) per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. 13 Wastewater Treatment Capacity Sewer plant capacity is adequate for at least a five-year period. 14 Parks 3.0 acres of Community Park or Special Use Area per 1,000 population within the Park District must be scheduled for construction within a five year period, or prior to construction of 1,562 dwelling units within the Park District beginning at the time the need is first identified. 15 Drainage Drainage facilities must be provided as required by the City concurrent with development. 17 Circulation1 No road segment or intersection in the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) nor any road segment or intersection out of the zone which is impacted by development in the zone shall be projected to exceed a service level C during off-peak hours, nor service level D during peak hours. Impacted means where 20% or more of the traffic generated by the local facility management zone will use the road segment or intersection. 18 1 The City of Carlsbad 2015 General Plan adopted a new performance standard for Circulation (see Mobility Element), however it was not applicable during the timeframe of this report (the General Plan was adopted in Sept. 2015). The new Mobility standard will be used in future GMP Monitoring Reports. 3 Table 1, Continued Performance Standards Public Facility Performance Standard More Information on Page Fire The number of dwelling units outside a five-minute “travel time” from the nearest fire station shall not exceed 1,500 units. 21 Open Space Fifteen percent of the total land area in the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land must be set aside for permanent open space and must be available concurrent with development. 23 Schools School capacity to meet projected enrollment within the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) as determined by the appropriate school district must be provided prior to projected occupancy. 24 Sewer Collection System Trunk-line capacity to meet demand, as determined by the appropriate sewer districts, must be provided concurrent with development. 25 Water Distribution System Line capacity to meet demand as determined by the appropriate water district must be provided concurrent with development. A minimum of 10-day average storage capacity must be provided prior to any development. 27 Table 2 Facility Adequacy Status Public Facility FY 2014-15 Adequacy Status (Meets performance standard?) Buildout Adequacy Status (Meets performance standard?) City Administrative Facilities Yes Yes Library Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Wastewater Treatment Capacity Yes Yes Parks Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Drainage Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Circulation Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Fire Yes Yes Open Space Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Schools Yes Yes Sewer Collection System Yes Additional facilities to be provided* Water Distribution System Yes Additional facilities to be provided* * For additional information, please see the expanded discussion and an analysis on the adequacy of each public facility beginning on page 12. 4 What Happens if Facilities Do Not Meet the Performance Standard? The GMP requires development activity to stop (in a specific area of the city or citywide) if a performance standard is not being met, as described below: • Administrative Facilities, Library, and Wastewater Treatment Capacity are facilities that serve the entire City. Their adequacy in meeting the performance standard is analyzed by considering the cumulative impact of citywide development. The failure of any one of these facilities to meet the adopted performance standard would affect the City as a whole. In that event, all development in the City would be halted until the deficiency is corrected. • Parks are analyzed on a quadrant basis. This means that if the standard is not being met in the quadrant, development is halted for all Local Facility Management Zones (LFMZs, see description below) in the quadrant. • Fire facilities are analyzed on the basis of fire station districts which can comprise multiple LFMZs, and if the standard is not met for a district, then development would be halted in that district. • The remaining facilities (Drainage, Circulation, Open Space, Schools, Sewer Collection System, and Water Distribution System) are analyzed on an LFMZ basis. If one of these facilities falls below the performance standard in a given LFMZ, development in that LFMZ would stop and other zones would not be affected if they are continuing to meet all performance standards. Local Facility Management Zone Plans The Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan divided the City into twenty-five Local Facilities Management Zones (LFMZ). Each LFMZ is required to have an adopted Local Facilities Management Plan (LFMP) prior to any development in the LFMZ. Consistent with the GMP, the LFMP must do the following: describe how the LFMZ will be developed, how compliance with the Growth Management standards will be achieved, how the necessary public facilities will be provided, and what financing mechanisms will be used for the facilities. All twenty-five LFMZs have an adopted LFMP. Please see Figure 1 for the general boundaries and locations of the LFMZs. 5 Figure 1 City of Carlsbad Quadrants & LFMP Zones 6 Population as a Measurement for Facility Performance Standards As indicated in Table 1, above, the performance standards for city administrative facilities, library facilities, and parks are stated in terms of population. The demand for these facilities is based on each new dwelling unit built and the estimated number of new residents it adds to the city, which is determined using the average number of persons per dwelling unit. Utilizing data from the 2010 Federal Census, the average number of persons per dwelling unit in Carlsbad is 2.358 persons (total population divided by total number of dwelling units). As of June 30, 2015, the city’s population is estimated to be 108,412, which is calculated by multiplying 2.358 persons per dwelling unit by the number of dwelling units, second dwelling units, and commercial living units (which were counted as dwelling units in the 2010 Federal Census); in total there are 45,931 dwellings and commercial living units, as shown in Table 3 below. Table 3 Growth management plan population calculation Quadrant Dwelling units1 Second dwelling units2 Commercial living units3 Total units Population NW 12,203 135 226 12,564 29,626 NE 6,091 41 6,132 14,459 SW 10,132 25 685 10,842 25,590 SE 16,240 153 16,393 38,737 Total 44,666 354 911 45,931 108,412 1 Dwelling units represent the dwellings that are counted for purposes of the city’s Growth Management dwelling unit limits per Proposition E (excludes second dwelling units and commercial living units); the number of dwelling units shown in this table are updated to June 30, 2015. 2 Second dwelling units are accessory to single family dwellings and are separate dwelling units with living space, kitchen and bathroom facilities. Pursuant to state law, second dwelling units cannot be counted as dwellings for purposes of the city’s growth management dwelling limits. However, the units are counted here to ensure all city population is considered in regard to the performance standards for administrative facilities, libraries and parks. 3 Commercial living units, as shown in this table, are professional care facility living units that were counted as dwelling units in the 2010 Federal Census. Pursuant to city ordinance (CMC 21.04.093), commercial living units are not counted as dwellings for purposes of the city’s growth management dwelling limits. However, the units are counted here to ensure all city population is considered in regard to the performance standards for administrative facilities, libraries and parks. As part of the Growth Management Plan (GMP) monitoring process, the persons per dwelling unit number can be adjusted in the future when updated Federal Census data is available. It should be noted that the above population estimates are for GMP facility planning purposes only, and may vary from other official population estimates for Carlsbad. 7 Residential Development Activity Building permits for 294 new dwelling units were issued during the FY 2014-15. Table 4 provides a breakdown by LFMZ, excluding the zones that had no development activity. Figure 2 shows the recent five year trend for the number of residential units for which building permits were issued. Table 4 FY 2014-15 Residential Development By LFMZ By Quadrant Zone Dwelling Units Zone Dwelling Units 1 67 NW 103 6 32 NE 53 11 90 SW 16 14 53 SE 122 20 16 Total 294 24 36 Total 294 Figure 2 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 ■# units Fiscal Year (as of June 30} Residential Units Permitted 2011 2012 260 424 2013 310 2014 152 2015 294 8 Non-Residential Development Activity Building permits for 284,594 square feet of new non-residential construction were issued during FY 2014-15, comprising both commercial and industrial development. Table 5 provides a breakdown by LFMZ, excluding the zones that had no development activity. Figure 3 shows the recent five year trend for the square footage of non-residential construction for which building permits were issued. Table 5 FY 2014-15 Non-Residential Development By LFMZ By Quadrant Zone Square Feet Permitted Quadrant Square Feet Permitted Commercial Industrial Commercial Industrial 1 3,993 1,878 NW 105,303 1,878 3 58,915 5(SW) 4,652 NE 10,858 11 17,673 13 42,395 SW 4,652 14 10,858 17 65,700 SE 17,673 144,230 18 78,530 Subtotal 122,976 161,618 Subtotal 122,976 161,618 Total 284,594 Total 284,594 Figure 3 Fiscal Year (as of June 30) Non-Residential Square Feet Permitted 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2011 ■ Square Feet 630,320 2012 218,884 2013 335,819 2014 682,180 2015 284,594 9 Proposition E Compliance The purpose of this part of the report is to demonstrate that the ultimate dwelling unit caps stated in Proposition E will not be exceeded. Proposition E states “the maximum number of residential dwelling units to be constructed or approved in the City after November 4, 1986 is as follows: Northwest Quadrant 5,844; Northeast Quadrant 6,166; Southwest Quadrant 10,667; Southeast Quadrant 10,801.” This resulted in dwelling unit caps as shown in Figure 4 (see the totals for each quadrant below). All quadrants are in compliance with the dwelling unit caps established by Proposition E for FY 2014-15. As noted above in Table 3, second dwelling units and commercial living units are not counted as dwellings for purposes of Growth Management Program compliance with the Proposition E caps. Figure 4 Quadrant Dwelling Unit Report Reconciled to the General Plan Update NORTHWEST 3 167 Future 15,370 Total * SOUT HWEST 10,132 Existing units 2 727 Future 12,859 Total * June 30, 2015 NORTHEAST 6,091 Existing units 2 951 Future 9,042 Total * SOUTHEAST 16,240 Existing units 1088 Future 17,328 Total* * Based on Proposition 'E' Caps added to the existing units in 1986 {'city of Carlsbad 10 Council Policy Statement 43 (Proposition E “Excess Dwelling” Unit Bank) established a dwelling unit bank concept in order to enable the City to grant density increases for certain types of residential projects, such as affordable housing projects, while assuring that the Proposition E caps are not exceeded. For projects that develop below the allowable density under Growth Management, these “excess” dwelling units are placed into the Excess Dwelling Unit Bank (Bank), and those units are then available to allow other projects to exceed the allowable density. On December 17, 2002, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2002-350, which amended Council Policy Statement 43 by reducing the accumulated number of excess units to 2,800. Excess units may be allocated from the Bank to any quadrant based on the criteria in Council Policy Statement 43, so long as the citywide dwelling unit cap or individual quadrant caps are not exceeded. Please see Table 6 for the Excess Dwelling Unit Bank status at the end of the FY 2014-15. “Pending” excess units are associated with projects that have been approved, but are not yet constructed or an approved land use change is not yet effective. “Pending” EDUB units are not available to allocate to other sites; the units will be deposited into the EDUB and made available for allocation at the time the associated projects are constructed or the land use change becomes effective. Table 6 Excess Dwelling Unit Bank Balance as of June 30, 2015 Inside the Village 768 Outside the Village 921 Pending deposits 437 Note: These numbers do not reflect the deposits and withdrawals that occurred with the General Plan update, which was approved in Sept. 2015, after the timeframe of this report. 11 Buildout Analysis Under Growth Management, the maximum number of dwelling units that could be constructed is 54,599; however, as a result of the Excess Dwelling Unit Bank reduction in 2002, the potential number of dwelling units at buildout is estimated to be 51,899 units, which is less than what Growth Management allows. On September 22, 2015, the City Council adopted the General Plan update. Table 5 shows potential buildout in the city resulting from application of land uses shown on the Land Use Map on vacant and underutilized sites, according to analysis undertaken for the General Plan update. Table 5 2035 Dwelling Unit and Population Projections Quadrant Dwelling Units Population NW 15,121 37,904 NE 8,945 22,423 SW 11,088 27,795 SE 16,667 41,780 Citywide Total 51,821 129,901 City of Carlsbad 2015 General Plan Public Facility Financing In 1991, the City of Carlsbad established Community Facilities District No. 1 (CFD) to provide financing for a number of public facilities of citywide importance that are needed to meet the requirements of the GMP, including various road and intersection improvements, and the Dove Library. As LFMZ plans are adopted, they are conditioned to annex into the CFD at the time the first discretionary permit grants an entitlement to develop in the LFMZ. This ensures financing for public facilities that can accommodate future growth consistent with the criteria of Growth Management. Status of the Facilities Beginning on page 12 is a discussion of the adequacy of each of the eleven public facilities addressed in Carlsbad’s GMP. 12 CITY ADMINISTRATIVE FACILITIES A. Performance Standard 1,500 sq. ft. per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five-year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the estimated June 30, 2015 population estimate of 108,412, the current demand for administrative facilities is 162,618 square feet. To date, City Administrative Facilities exceeds the performance standard. The existing inventory of City and Carlsbad Municipal Water District buildings (leased and owned) occupied for administrative services includes the following: Facility Address Sq. Ft. City Administration 1635 Faraday Avenue 68,000 City Council Chambers 1200 Carlsbad Village Dr 2,500 City Hall Complex 1200 Carlsbad Village Dr 13,500 City Yard 405 Oak Avenue 8,249 City Yard Modular Building 405 Oak Avenue 1,800 Senior Center 799 Pine Street 6,750 Parks Administration 1166 Carlsbad Village Dr 504 Parks Modular/Break Room 1166 Carlsbad Village Dr 2,000 Safety Center 2560 Orion Way 64,000 FR Training Facility 2560 Orion Way 18,112 Fleet Yard 2480 Impala Drive 10,358 Water District 5950 El Camino Real 18,000 Water District Modular 5950 El Camino Real 696 Total 214,469 C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the 2035 projected buildout population of 129,901, the demand for city administrative facilities will be 194,852 square feet. The existing 214,469 square feet of administrative facilities exceeds the Growth Management performance standard at buildout. 13 LIBRARY FACILITIES A. Performance Standard 800 sq. ft. (of library space) per 1,000 population must be scheduled for construction within a five- year period or prior to construction of 6,250 dwelling units, beginning at the time the need is first identified. Library space (leased/owned, public/non-public) is used as a standard library measurement of customer use and satisfaction and includes collection space, seating, meeting rooms, staff areas, technology, and other public facility needs. The performance standard, stated above, was originally developed based on surveys of other libraries of comparable size and based on related standards (such as volumes per capita) set by the American Library Association. B. FY 2014-15 Inventory and Adequacy of Facilities The current inventory of library facilities is as follows: Owned: Dove Library 64,000 s.f. Cole Library 24,352 s.f. Learning Center 11,393 s.f. TOTAL 99,745 s.f. Based on the June 30, 2015 population estimate of 108,412, the growth management standard requires 86,730 s.f. of public library space. The Library adequately meets the growth management standard with current facilities (99,745 s.f.). C. Facility Adequacy at Buildout Based on the 2015 General Plan projected buildout population of 129,901, the demand for library facilities will be 103,921 s.f. The existing 99,745 square feet of library facilities is expected to fall short of the Growth Management standard at buildout. In 2015-16, the City will have completed major maintenance and renovation for both the Cole and Dove facilities that addresses current ADA requirements and allows delivery of modern library services and technology, extending the life of the Cole Library 10 to 15 years. Complete replacement of the Cole facility is included in the Capital Improvement Program budget between the years 2020 and buildout. The city should begin planning for a replacement library facility that meets the Growth Management standard at buildout as the city also considers future city hall and community gathering requirements. 14 WASTEWATER TREATMENT CAPACITY A. Performance Standard Sewer plant capacity is adequate for at least a five-year period. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis The Encina Water Pollution Control Facility (EWPCF) Phase V expansion accommodates the ultimate buildout demand for the Carlsbad Sewer Service Area based on projections made in the 2012 City of Carlsbad Sewer Master Plan; and therefore, currently provides adequate capacity in excess of the performance standard. Carlsbad’s FY 2014-2015 annual daily average dry weather sewer flow was 6.17 million gallons per day (MGD) representing 60% of the City’s 10.26 MGD capacity rights. The City’s annual daily average sewage flow to the EWPCF for the previous five years is measured as follows: Fiscal Year Annual Daily Average Flow FY 2009-10 7.09 MGD FY 2010-11 7.57 MGD FY 2011-12 6.92 MGD FY 2012-13 6.53 MGD FY 2013-14 5.90 MGD C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The Encina Water Pollution Control Facility Phase V expansion provides adequate sewer treatment capacity to ensure compliance with the Growth Management wastewater performance standard through buildout of the Carlsbad sewer service area. The 2012 City of Carlsbad Sewer Master Plan contains an analysis of annual daily average future sewer flow through buildout of the city based on the Carlsbad General Plan land use projections. The analysis indicates that the City’s projected ultimate buildout flow is approximately 10.00 MGD. The City has purchased capacity rights to 10.26 MGD in the EWPCF, which ensures adequate wastewater treatment capacity is available to accommodate any unanticipated increase in future sewer flows. 15 PARKS A. Performance Standard 3.0 acres of Community Park or Special Use Area per 1,000 population within the Park District2 must be scheduled for construction within a five year period, or prior to construction of 1,562 dwelling units within the Park District beginning at the time the need is first identified.3 B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis To date, all quadrants are in compliance with the performance standard. Quadrant Park acreage inventory existing Park acreage required by Performance Standards NW 105.3 88.9 NE 45.3 43.4 SW 70.2 76.8 SE 114.9 116.2 Total 335.7 325.2 In May 2014, the City Council approved a permit with the California Department of Parks and Recreation to assume maintenance and improvement of 6.9 acres of state-owned property that includes the Tamarack Beach Upper Picnic Facilities and the Tamarack/Frazee Beach Coastal Bluffs (NW quadrant). The permit enabled the city to upgrade amenities and provide a higher level of service to the public by making physical improvements to the picnic areas, conducting deferred maintenance on the restrooms at Tamarack Avenue, restoring/re- vegetating the bluff areas, and enhancing the quality and frequency of grounds maintenance. In August 2014, the City Council entered into an updated joint-use agreement with the Carlsbad Unified School District for recreational use of 2.6 acres at Hope Elementary School (NE quadrant) and 2.9 acres at Kelly Elementary School (NW quadrant). Amongst other changes, that update reinstated these two school fields into the agreement, and correspondingly, into the parks inventory. Currently, the performance standard requirement for park acreage exceeds the inventory of existing and scheduled park acreage except for the following two quadrants: SW and SE. However, although short of the acreage required, these quadrants are not out of compliance with the performance standard because neither the time frame nor dwelling unit thresholds have been reached.2 The deficits in the SW and SE quadrants were identified in the FY 2012- 2 "Park District" = "quadrant". There are four park districts within the city, corresponding to the four quadrants. 3 The threshold for triggering the construction of a new park is as follows: Once a deficit of park acreage in a quadrant is identified, a new park must be scheduled for construction within the time frame of five years, or before the cumulative construction of 1,562 dwelling units, whichever occurs later. According to City Council Resolution No. 97-435, “scheduled for construction” means that the improvements have been designed, a park site has been selected, and a financing plan for construction of the facility has been approved. 16 13 GMP report, and units are tracked from this point on by adding building permits for dwelling units finaled since that time frame. Quadrant Year deficit identified Units constructed since deficit identified SW FY 2012-13 123 SE FY 2012-13 248 To generate population estimates, this year’s report incorporates updated dwelling unit numbers from the General Plan Update process. Previously, population was based upon the Finance Department’s “Growth Projection” chart. This switch in methodology results in an increase in the deficit for the SW quadrant, and slight reductions for the other quadrants. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on the current FY 2014-15 CIP list of projects, Veteran’s Memorial Park (91.5 acres, with 22.9 acres applied to each quadrant) is proposed to be constructed prior to buildout. Construction of this community park would result in the projected park inventory for all city quadrants exceeding the projected required acreage at buildout, as shown below: Quadrant Buildout Population4 Projected required acreage3 Current Inventory Proposed park acreage Projected Inventory NW 37,904 113.7 105.2 39 144.3 NE 22,423 67.3 45.3 34.1 79.4 SW 27,795 83.4 70.2 22.9 93.1 SE 41,780 125.3 114.9 22.9 137.8 Total 129,901 389.7 335.6 91.5 454.6 D. Other Items Park acreage in this year’s report also reflects revisions made during a comprehensive review of open space and park acreages. Minor modifications were made to GMP park acreages due to refinement of the boundaries of certain sites, based on enhanced GIS technology. These modifications, coupled with the additions described above, resulted in more GMP park acreage than was stated in previous reports. Figures above for proposed park acreage do not include park projects listed in the CIP as “unfunded” or “partially unfunded” (e.g. Zone 5 Business Park Recreational Facility, Robertson Ranch Park, Cannon Lake Park, etc.). Should alternative funding mechanisms be found, and these parks are built, the additional park acreage would further aid in meeting/exceeding the Growth Management park performance standard. 4 Reflects the 2015 General Plan Update (this results in a higher buildout population as compared to previous reports. 17 DRAINAGE A. Performance Standard Drainage facilities must be provided as required by the City concurrent with development. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis All areas of the City currently meet the growth management drainage performance standard. The standard for drainage distinguishes it from the other public facility standards because, by its very nature, drainage facility needs are more accurately assessed as specific development plans for individual projects are finalized. Therefore, the drainage performance standard was written to allow the City to require appropriate drainage facilities as development plans are finalized and approved. The larger/master plan facilities have been identified in the City’s 2008 Drainage Master Plan and the associated Planned Local Drainage Area (PLDA) fee program was established to finance their construction. The construction of smaller development/project related drainage facilities are addressed during the review of individual project proposals. Maintenance, repair and replacement projects are identified on an ongoing basis and are incorporated in the Capital Improvement Program as a part of the Corrugated Metal Pipe Replacement program, the Northwest Quadrant Storm Drain Program or as individual/stand-alone projects. The Agua Hedionda and Calavera Creek channels located east of El Camino Real within the residential community of Rancho Carlsbad were found to be of inadequate size to fully contain and convey the 100 year flood event. As a result, some of the runoff is conveyed through the community and therefore projects located within LFMP Zones 5, 7, 14, 15, 16, 18 and 24 that drain to the Agua Hedionda or Calavera Creek must comply with the following conditions to maintain compliance with the drainage performance standard: 1. Payment of the PLDA fee. 2. Install onsite drainage improvements to ensure that direct drainage impacts resulting from the proposed development do not exacerbate the potential for downstream flooding of existing development. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The 2008 Carlsbad Drainage Master Plan proposes the construction of new facilities to accommodate potential storm events. Construction of the proposed Master Drainage Facilities will ensure the Drainage performance standard is maintained through buildout of the city. The 2008 Carlsbad Drainage Master Plan also updated the PLDA program to ensure adequate funds are available to fund construction of needed flood control facilities. The estimated costs for these facilities and the programming of PLDA funds are included in the annual Capital Improvement Program. 18 CIRCULATION A. Performance Standard No road segment or intersection in the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) nor any road segment or intersection out of the zone which is impacted by development in the zone shall be projected to exceed a service level C during off-peak hours, nor service level D during peak hours. Impacted means where 20% or more of the traffic generated by the local facility management zone will use the road segment or intersection.5 B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis All intersections and roadway segments currently comply with the Circulation System performance standard. For purposes of monitoring traffic throughout the City, the capacity of an intersection or roadway segment is compared to the actual volumes measured in the field and reported in terms identified as a “Level of Service (LOS). The definition of “Level of Service” is a quantitative measure of traffic conditions that reflects how restrictive vehicle movements are, or may become. The six levels of traffic service range from A to F. LOS Level A represents the most ideal conditions; Level E is at capacity; and Level F indicates forced flow, or stop and go traffic representing a gridlock condition. The Transportation Research Board Highway Capacity Manual further defines LOS based on specific measurements of traffic volumes and roadway capacities. The Growth Management Traffic Monitoring Program for 2014 included 27 roadway segments and 49 intersections. Results indicate all roadway segments and intersections meet the Growth Management Circulation performance standard, as follows: • 25 roadway segments operated at a LOS A and two roadway segments operated at a LOS B during 2013. • During the AM peak hour, all 49 intersections operated at a LOS C or better during 2013. • During the PM peak hour, 47 intersections operated at a LOS C or better in 2013. • During the PM peak hour, the intersections of El Camino Real/Cannon Road and Palomar Airport Road/El Fuerte Street operated at a LOS D or better, which remains consistent with the performance standard. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis 5 The City of Carlsbad 2015 General Plan adopted a new performance standard for Circulation (see Mobility Element), however it was not applicable during the timeframe of this report (the General Plan was adopted in Sept. 2015). The new Mobility standard will be used in future GMP Monitoring Reports. 19 The Traffic Monitoring Program will continue to be utilized to monitor LOS and verify road and intersection performance and compliance with Growth Management standards at buildout. In addition, future road segments have been identified in the Circulation Element of the General Plan as necessary to accommodate the buildout of the city (see Figure 6). Traffic forecasts for Carlsbad prepared by SANDAG are based on the buildout of the General Plan, which is based on the Growth Management Plan, and future regional traffic projections. To ensure compliance with the Growth Management Plan, all of the city’s LFMPs detail the construction and financing plans for any circulation improvements identified by the traffic forecasts as necessary to accommodate the future buildout. For more information about the funding of circulation improvements, please see the Capital Improvement Program Budget for FY 2014-15. 20 Figure 6 PAOAC OCEAN o~-===i,-Q J:10:lgl~CU'\P'¥lflhg.stanGYC1Mal) CAIAVERA City of Carlsbad Circul ation Element CITY OF CARLSBAD CIRCULATION PLAN ~FREEWAY ""' PRIME ARTERIAL "-' MAJOR ARTERIAL '""-.., SECONDARY ARTERIAL '"'-..., COLLECTOR SlREET ''-., FUTURE MAJOR ARTERIAL ++RAILROAD a w 21 FIRE A. Performance Standard The number of dwelling units outside a five-minute response from the nearest fire station shall not exceed 1,500 units. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis The City’s Fire facilities are in compliance with the Growth Management performance standard. There are no more than 1,500 dwelling units outside of a five-minute response distance from any of the City’s six fire stations. The intent of the GMP standard, as applied to Fire facilities, is to establish the number of stations and their locations, based upon response distances. At the time the GMP was developed, scientific fire behavior information and recognized best practices supported the position that a response time of five minutes would result in effective fire incident intervention. To determine the most desirable geographic sites for future fire stations, it was necessary to convert the five-minute response time to a measurable distance that could be applied to a future road network scheme. Because the GMP provides no other trigger mechanism for the installation of additional fire stations, it follows that up to 1,500 dwelling units could exist outside the five-minute reach of the closest fire station for an indeterminate length of time without violating the GMP standard. The five-minute response time measure was selected exclusively as a means of logically positioning emergency response resources throughout the City. Therefore, the standard is applied as a means of measuring compliance with locating fire facilities in accordance with the GMP, not the performance of the Fire Department in meeting service responsibilities. The GMP Fire performance standard is utilized to determine the number of fire stations and their locations, not Fire Department response times. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis At buildout no single fire station district will exceed the established threshold of more than 1,500 units that exist outside of a five minute response time. To determine if Fire facilities will be adequate at buildout, the City’s Geographic Information System Department (GIS) created a map based upon the following information: ● Existing fire station locations, except Station No. 3, which was sited at its new location just east of the northeast corner of the intersection of Cannon Road and El Camino Real • Anticipated future development • 2.5 mile road distance from each of the six Fire Stations (five minute response equates to road driving distance of 2.5 miles); ● All planned, major roadway arterials; and 22 ● The number of dwelling units projected at buildout that will be located outside of the 2.5 mile road (5 minute) distance from each fire station The GIS map, based upon the above-noted assumptions, revealed the following findings: Fire Station Number Total number of dwelling units outside of five minutes 1,3 & 4 (aggregated) 1,227 2 902 5 392 6 1,185 As noted above, the GIS map analysis revealed that at build out, the City’s existing and planned Fire facilities will meet the GMP performance standards standard (i.e. the total number of dwelling units that will exist outside of a five minute response from the nearest fire station will not exceed the threshold of 1,500 units). 23 OPEN SPACE A. Performance Standard Fifteen percent of the total land area in the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) exclusive of environmentally constrained non-developable land must be set aside for permanent open space and must be available concurrent with development. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis To date, adequate open space has been provided to meet the performance standard. Open space to meet the performance standard is provided concurrent with approval of development projects. The location of performance standard open space must be indicated during project-specific analysis. It must be in addition to any constrained areas, such as protected wildlife habitat or slopes greater than 40%. At the time the Citywide Facilities and Improvements Plan was adopted (1986), the LFMZ’s were divided into: a) those that were already developed and considered in compliance with Growth Management, and b) those that still needed to comply with the open space performance standard. In 1986, LFMZs 1 through 10, and 16 were already developed and considered to be in compliance with the open space performance standard. Subsequent to the adoption of the CFIP, LFMZs 11 – 15, 17 – 21, and 23 – 24 have provided adequate open space to meet the performance standard concurrent with development. In April 2013, the LFMP for Zone 25 was adopted along with the Quarry Creek Master Plan, which found that sufficient open space exists in Zone 25 so that all development will comply with the GMP standard through buildout. LFMZ 22 is still developing and, as future development occurs, open space will be required to meet the performance standard. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis As discussed above, all LFMZs, except for Zone 22, have met the Growth Management open space performance standard. Future projects in LFMZ 22 must provide open space in compliance with the performance standard. 24 SCHOOLS A. Performance Standard School capacity to meet projected enrollment within the Local Facility Management Zone (LFMZ) as determined by the appropriate school district must be provided prior to projected occupancy. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis Currently, school capacity is in compliance with the Growth Management School performance standard (see below). The City is served by four school districts as listed below: 1. Carlsbad Unified School District According to the 2011 Comprehensive Facilities Master Plan Update, sufficient student capacity exists through 2016. CUSD staff confirmed that the district can accommodate both the current enrollment levels and expected future growth. 2. San Marcos Unified School District SMUSD staff indicated that the schools serving Carlsbad are currently at maximum capacity but that will-serve letters are still being issued by SMUSD for proposed developments in the part of Carlsbad that is served by SMUSD schools, and that the schools serving Carlsbad could accommodate the expected future growth within this area. 3. Encinitas Union Elementary School District According to a site capacity report provided by the school district, sufficient student capacity exists through 2015-16. 4. San Dieguito Union High School District Based on demographic projections provided by San Dieguito Union High School District, it is estimated that schools serving Carlsbad will have sufficient student capacity through 2018. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis Based on Chapter 3.11 of the 2015 General Plan EIR, for all school districts at all grade levels, capacity is expected to be sufficient for the buildout student population with no need for additional schools. 25 SEWER COLLECTION SERVICES A. Performance Standard Trunk-line capacity to meet demand, as determined by the appropriate sewer districts, must be provided concurrent with development. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis Sewer improvements are provided on a project by project basis concurrent with development. Currently, the City of Carlsbad’s Sewer service area pipelines are in compliance with the Growth Management performance standard. Representatives from the sewer agencies that provide sewer collection systems within the City include: Carlsbad, Leucadia Wastewater District and Vallecitos Water District. Each agency indicates that they currently have adequate conveyance capacity in place to meet Carlsbad’s sewer collection demands. The City of Carlsbad is served by the following four major interceptor systems: Note: MGD = million gallons per day For both the Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor and the Buena Interceptor, the percentage of Carlsbad capacity rights increases in the downstream reaches of each interceptor system (3.4% in the upstream reaches as they enter the Carlsbad service area and up to 35% or 50% in the downstream reaches for Buena Interceptor and Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor, respectively as they enter the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility). Interceptor System Sewer Districts Served Carlsbad Capacity Rights Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor City of Carlsbad & City of Vista Ranges from 3.4% / 0.93 MGD up to 50% / 33.6 MGD Buena Interceptor City of Carlsbad & Buena Sanitation District Ranges from 18% / 1.2 MGD up to 35% / 3.0 MGD Vallecitos Interceptor City of Carlsbad, Buena Sanitation District & Vallecitos Water District 5 MGD Occidental Sewer City of Carlsbad, City of Encinitas & Leucadia Waste Water District 8.5 MGD 26 C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The 2012 City of Carlsbad Sewer Master Plan evaluated the sewer infrastructure needs of the Carlsbad Sewer service area and identified those facilities required to accommodate future customers at buildout. The master plan identified the Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor, and Buena Interceptor as requiring improvements to accommodate build-out demand (see below). Sewer trunk main capacities are estimated by comparing wastewater flow projections to the capacity of the sewer system. Using a computer sewer model, the existing and future sewer demands are estimated and compared to the capacity of each trunk sewer pipeline. In addition, annual flow measurement information is also used to determine actual flows in the sewer trunk pipelines. Vista/Carlsbad Interceptor: A capacity analysis included in the 2012 City of Carlsbad Sewer Master Plan indicates three relatively flat pipeline portions of Reaches VC13, VC14 & VC15. As a result, during peak period flows, the pipeline is flowing full. This is an active construction project, expected to be completed in FY 2017/18. The replacement pipelines are sized based on ultimate flows from both the City of Carlsbad and City of Vista sewer collection systems. Buena Interceptor. A capacity analysis conducted in 2010 indicates that although the City’s wastewater flows are not projected to exceed the capacity rights in the Buena Interceptor, the combined flows of Buena Sanitation District and City of Carlsbad during peak wet weather periods result in capacity restrictions. As a result, Carlsbad is coordinating with Buena Sanitation District to construct a parallel trunk sewer which will allow all flows from Buena Sanitation District to be diverted to the parallel trunk sewer. Once constructed, the City of Carlsbad will be the only agency with flows remaining in the existing Buena Interceptor, and this will provide sufficient capacity for Carlsbad during wet weather conditions. Funding for the design and construction of the parallel trunk sewer was appropriated for FY 2013/14 by the City of Vista which operates the Buena Sanitation District, and is now in the design stage. 27 WATER DISTRIBUTION SERVICES A. Performance Standard Line capacity to meet demand as determined by the appropriate water district must be provided concurrent with development. A minimum of 10-day average storage capacity must be provided prior to any development. B. FY 2014-15 Facility Adequacy Analysis Carlsbad’s water distribution is provided by three agencies including the Carlsbad Municipal Water District (CMWD) serving 32.32 square miles (82.7 percent of the City), Olivenhain Municipal Water District (OMWD) serving 5.28 square miles (13.5 percent of the City), and Vallecitos Water District (VWD) serving 1.48 square miles (3.8 percent of the City). These districts indicate that they have adequate capacity to meet the Growth Management performance standard. Water service demand requirements are estimated using a computer model to simulate two water distribution scenarios: 1) maximum day demand plus a fire event; 2) peak hour demand. This computer model was calibrated using actual flow measurements collected in the field to verify it sufficiently represents the actual water system. Existing and future daily demand and storage requirements for CMWD, which is a subsidiary district of the City of Carlsbad, from the 2012 CMWD Water Master Plan are shown below: Existing Maximum Day Demand 26.7 MGD6 Existing Storage Requirement 39.5 MG7 Existing Storage Capacity 50.5 MG excluding Maerkle Dam storage Future Maximum Daily Demand 39.4 MGD Based on the water model analysis prepared for the 2012 CMWD Water Master Plan, future pipelines and water system facilities were identified to ensure a complete water system is constructed to accommodate future customers. In addition, funds for the construction of future facilities were included in the FY 2014/15 Capital Improvement Program. Therefore, the future water infrastructure is programmed to be in place at the time of need in order to ensure compliance with the performance standard. 6 MGD – Million gallons per day 7 MG – Million gallons 28 Within the CMWD service area the existing average daily potable water demand is shown below: Fiscal Year MGD 2007/08 18.2 2008/09 16.5 2009/10 14.2 2010/11 13.2 2011/12 13.7 2012/13 14.4 2013/14 14.9 2014/15 13.6 The lower water demand, compared to the peak in FY 2007/08, is a result of (1) implementing a new tiered water rate structure to encourage water conservation, (2) in 2009, a campaign was initiated to reduce customer consumption by the wholesale water agencies, (3) the persisting drought has forced voluntary and mandatory conservation measures in 2015, and (4) beginning in 2008 an expansion of CMWD’s recycled water system lowered potable water consumption. Water conservation by CMWD customers has resulted in an overall reduction in per capita consumption. To meet the 10 day storage requirement, CMWD needs 182 MG of storage capacity based on the historic peak demand. CMWD has a storage capacity of 244 MG which consists of 195 MG of storage capacity at Maerkle Dam and an additional 49 MG of storage capacity in various storage tanks throughout the distribution system. In 2004, the OMWD completed construction of a water treatment facility at the San Diego County Water Authority Emergency Storage Reservoir, which provides the storage necessary to meet the 10 day storage requirement for OMWD. VWD’s average day demand was 14.6 MGD with an existing storage capacity of 121.6 MG. Through interagency sharing arrangements VWD can obtain additional water supplies to meet a 10 day restriction on the imported water supply. C. Buildout Facility Adequacy Analysis The 2012 CMWD Water Master Plan identifies facilities necessary for build-out conditions within its service area. The 2012 update identified no additional storage tanks are required to meet the future 10 average-day storage requirements because of a reduction in demand from expansion of CMWD’s recycled water system. As proposed land development projects are reviewed by the City, the Water Master Plans from CMWD, OMWD, and VWD are consulted to check pipeline sizes and facility capacities to verify adequacy to support the water needs of the project and city. To comply with water master plan requirements, land development projects may be required to install a master plan water project concurrent with construction of that specific project.