HomeMy WebLinkAbout1977-01-18; City Council; Resolution 4082I
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RESOLUTION NO. 4082
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE
CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING
AN AGREEMEPJT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD
SERVICES TO PROVIDE AN ECONOMIC IMPACT
REPORT ON THE LA COSTA MASTER PLAN.
AND ?.IC DONALD AND GREFE FOR CONSULTING
The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, does
hereby resolve as follows:
1. That that certain agreement between the City of Carlsbad
and McDonald and Grafe for consulting services to provide a land
use and public facilities Economic Impact Report on the La Costa
Master Plan, a copy of which is attached hereto marked Exhibit "A"
and made a part hereof, is hereby approved.
2. That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby autho-
rized and directed to execute said agreement for and on behalf of
the City of Carlsbad.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the
City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, held on the
18th day of January , 1977 by the following vote, to wit:
AYES : Councilmen Frazee, Lewis, Packard and Skotnicki
NOES : None
ABSENT: Councilwoman Casler
ROBERT C, FRAZEE, Ma&r
ATTEST :
( SEAL)
AGREEMENT FOR CONSUL'TJt4G SERVICES TO PROVIDE R LAtUD USE AND PUBLIC FACILITIES
ECONOMIC II4FACT ANALYSIS OF THE RANCHO LA - COSTA MASTER PL4N
THIS AGREEMENT made z!nd entered into this day of
5 by and between the CITY OF CARLSBHD, a municipal
corporation of the State of California, hereinafter i-eferred to as
"City", and NcDotii:7 d ti Grefc Inc. , 303 Sacramento Street San
Francisco9 California 94111, hereinafter referred to as "Consultant".
WITNESSETH:
WI.(EREAS, the City desires to evcfuatc the Land Use s( Public
Facilities Econoin'!c Iizpacts of the Rancho La Costa Ma.ster Plan:, and
IdHEKE/\S; Cor,s.ul 'i2n-t presented to the City a proposal dated
October 20, 1976, to evaluate these econcm-ic impacts; and
WHEREAS, the City desires to employ Consultant to provide the
necessary consul-Ling services to underrake said study,
NO'nl, THCREFGLC, i ti considerstion of the mutual covenants ai?b
agreewents contaftied heretn, the parties hereby agree as folloecs:
1. SCOPE OF CONSULTANT SERVICES. The Consultant shall provide
professional serv-ices necessary for the completion of the Land Use
a!?d PKblic Facilities Economic Impact Analysis of the Rancho La Costa
Master Plan as described in Tasks 5. through 7 of Consultant's Proposal
- of October 20, 1976, which task descriptions are attached hereto as
Exhibit "A" and incorporated hereiii by this reference
The findiilgs of the Consultant study shall be documented in a
L i final repo'rt wli-ich will include a clear summary of, the Broad economic
base of the North County, the limitations of the m-ethodoloyies employed,
the key issues to be resolved by the P1,anning Commission/City Council,
and the basic conclusions and/or recommendations of the study.
A draft final report shall be submitted to the City for comnients.
The final report will be submitted in thirty-five (35) copies.
2. PROGRSSS AHD CObtPLETJON. Consulting services as provided
herein shall bcgin promptly following written authorization by the
City. Completion of Ttisks i-7 as described in pc?ragra.pf; 1 above shall
be in accordance with the following scheduie:
Event Compl eti or, _____ Date (weekso-ffer authorization)
1
Task 11: M3.rke-t estr’matcs 5
Ta.sks TI1 & IV: Public Serv-ices
cost e s ti riia I e s 8
10
Tasks VI & VII (Portion): Draft Report 12
Task \’XI (Rema-inder): Final Report 15
3, ____-_---_ COMPEi(SATI0N. Fees for cansulti:-ly services provided in para-
grtip? 5 above shc?ll be dc”cermine6 01: the b;:s<s of tli~ professional
service rates listed below, and by the direct nonsalary costs as here-
inafter defined, except that the total fee for consulting services
shall not exceed the guaranteed maximum fee given in paragraph 4 below.
A. Professional servf ces shall be compensated at appl -;cab1 e
hourly professional rates according to the following schedule: .
Consultant
A. N . McDonal d W. Zion
E. Chase
\J. Kent.
Hourly Rate
: $55. ’435
$30
$20
6. Direct nonsalary costs shall -include the following:
Services directly applicable to the work such as computer rental
and programming costs associated with analysis for the project, com-
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mercial print-ing and binding, the use of an engineering subcontractor
to produce capital estima.tes, and ,similar costs that are not applicable
to general overhead; Identifiable communication expense such as. long
dis“c.nce telephone, telegraph, cable, express charges and postage
other than for general correspondence; Living a.nd travel i ng expenses
of cniployces when away from home offices OH busiriess connected with
the work, except for automobile travel which shall be at the rate of
15 cents per mile.
4. GUfiRANPEEU KAXil4UM FEE. The gua.rant.eed max-imunr fee for con- -._-- _L-I__I_--
sulting services described in Paragraph 1, Tasks 1-7, shall be
$33,190.00.
5. PAYHIENP OF FEES. Charges de’cermined on the bas-is set forth
in paragraph 3 above sha’l: be billed on a monthly basis on or before
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the 15th day of each calendar nionth following any month in which Con-
sultant perfornis services. Invoices shall contain the following:
(I) Each itern of direct salary costs showing the number of hours work-
ed bg each yei-soli foi. kJI1Oli1 3 chz\.ge is mad? > together ~fth the \-~at~\~e
of thit work performed, (2) each item of direct nonsa’lary costsS (3) the
precise proportion of each invoice attributable to overhead and profit,
and (4) an itemization of any miscellaneous consulting services ren-
dered containing the dzta set forth in (I) (2) and (3) above. lnvo-ices .
which are not disputed .in writing by the City and which are iiiore than
90 days past due shall be subject to interest charges at the rate of
seven percent per annum. Payment of fees may be withheld by the City
for costs incurred on Tasks not completed a’ccording to the schedule
set forth in paragraph 2, until such tasks are completed.
6. CONTRACT SUPERVISlON. While Consultant is undertaking the
performance of the aforementioned study, contract performance shall be
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supervised on a day-to-,day b3.s-i s by a Project Manager assi cjr;cd by the
City.
7. RESPOXSIBTLITY 9F ~___- THE COWSULTANT. The Consultant -is. eniployed
herel'n to rendet- a profcssiunal scrv-ice only and an;/ payments made to
him z~e conipcnsation sole'ly for sue!? services as he may render and
, j. rccorr;men.;a-r;.ior!s he may make in the course of the project. The Con- ..,
sul'cant makes no \ilc:rranty, either expressed or imp1 -ied, as to his
findings recommendatiGns, or professional advice other than they were
proniul gated !I accordance with the terms of thi s agreement.
8. _I--- EQUA!- __ EMPLOYMERT ___--I___ -_I_- OPPOET\iil'ITY. -____. The Consultant shall not d-i s-
crim-iiiate against any employee or appl icant Foi- cmpl oynient because of
racc, coloi:., religion, sei or national orig-in. The Constlltant sha.17
that employees are treated during employment, without regard to their
race, color, religion, sex, or national orig-in. Such actions shall
incl udtl bst not tic 1 7ini ted to, the fol 1 ov.:i iig : Ernpl oyxcnt ~ upgrad-i i?g,
demont-iolls or ti-ansfeu.~. rccrui tmeat or recrui tmeni: advcrt.i sing 1 a.y--
offs or terminations, rates of pay or other forms of compensation,
selection for train.ing including apprenticeship, and participation in
recreational and educational activities. . The Consultant agrees to post
in conspicuous pl aces avai 1 ab1 c to emp! oyetls and zppf i cants for em-
ployment notices to be provided setting forth the provisions of this
non-discrimination clause. The Consultant shall in all solicitations
or advertisemects for employees placed by or on behalf of the Consultant,
6 state that all qualified applicants w-il.7 receive consideration for b \
C?lll~lQ~!II~tlt witlioui: regard to race, color, religion, sex or national
origic. The Consultant shall taupe the foregoing provisions to be .
inserted in all subcontracts for any work covered by this Contract so
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that such provisions will be binding upon each subcontractor provided
that the foregoing provisions shall not apply to contracts or sub--
contracts for standard commercial supp? ies or raw materials.
9. CONSULTANT'S QUALIFICATIONS. At all times while any work
subject hereto 'is in progress, Consultant shall be, and remain, qual.ified
to conduct business in Cal.i-fornia and shall have a corporate off-icei- in
responsible charge of such \~iorI:. Such officer. shall be one who is
authorized to Rake and entcr into any and a71 agreements, and to be
responsjbie for anji and all ttifI?gs to be perfoi-med by Consultant here-
under.
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10. -___ \dORKPlEN _I_.-_-._--I- 'S CCMPENSAT ION INSURANCE ~ Consultant shall procure
and tila-ii:t.a.in at 3.1 7 times ciuring this agreement Workmen's Compensation
Insurance in confoi-mai:ce with the '1 r=ws of the State of Cal .i forni 2 and
of the Federal laws v!here applicable, and be unlimited as respects
Employer's Liability Insurance.
11. _1---___ CHANGES IN SCOPE OF PROJECT. - If conditions beyorid the con-
trol of the Consultant ncxessitate a change in scope of the project
after work under paragraph I above has cornmenced the guaran-l ced r!iax-
imum fee shall be adjusted as follows: (1) Increased or decreased
in proportion to th'e net change in the estimated cost of the project,
' and (2) increased by the amount of charger; for any work accomplished
to the date of change in scope which cartnot be incorporated iiito the
changed project.
12. SUSPENSION 0F.SERVICES OR TERMINATION OF AGREEMENT. The City
for any reason, may be written notice postpone or suspend all or any
L part of the consulting serv-ices authorized ur,cier this agreementg or by 1
written notice may terminate the entire agreement. In the event of
such suspension or termination, consultant shal? have the right to *
. expend additional time to assemble the work in progress for the purpose
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of properly closing the job. Such additiorial ’c-ime shal 1 not exceed
ten pevcent of the total time expended on the portion of the project
affected by such i-iolice or suspencion or termination before t!,e re-
ce-i pt thereof,
In the evefit “chat suspeiis:’on of services exceeds twelve months
in d1:ra”iioii, the i:ansu,lt.c?e,t may, by t?ot less that? tiiir.i:y day’s nctice,
terminiitc this a.yrecmcnt as it appl-ies to the suspended portion of the
project.
13. -1-__-.- STA’TUS OF CONSUI-TAN?, --.__ The Corisul tant shall perform the
services provided for herein in its own way cis an independen-: contra.c!:or
a.nd in -the pu’rsu-it of its independent calI.ing, and not as an employei!
of the City; and ’It shall be under the control of the City only as to
tlie rest11 t to be accornpi -i shed cI and the personnel ass-i gned to thc: project
The personnel assigned to the p.roject by Consultant shall be those listed
under Paragraph 3, above.
14. OWNERSI~IP OF DGCUMEl4TS ~ A? 1 p7 ans stud.i cs , compi!ter pri nt- ~---~---~.---
outs and soFLi.~a.re specifi cations aiicl estiiii,it.es suppf red .as 1iere-i ti
reqi,!ired, arc the property of the C.ity. In the event this cot.ttrc?et is
terminated, all plans, studies, coniputer printouts and software, spec-
ifications and estimates shall be delivered forthwith to the City.
15. -_ HOLD EAR%LESS AGREEI4ENT. -___. The City, its agents, officers and
emplcyees shall not be liable for any claimss liabilities, penalt-ies,
. fines or for any damage to goods, properties or effects of any person
whatever, or for personal injuries to or death of them, or any of them,
caEsed by or resulting from any act or omission of Consultant, or its
I agents employees or representatives; Consultant further agrees to in- I
demnify arid save free and harmless the City and its authorized agents,
officers and employees against any of the foregoing liabilities and
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cla.ims therefor, and any cost and expense that is -incurred by the City
on "account of any claim therefor.
16. ASSIGNMENT OF CONTRACT. The Cor!sul-tant shall. not assjgn this
contract or any part thereof or any monies due or to become due there-
undzv. \vitIiout the prier writtc.ii consent of the City.
17. SUKCOt.i'PRF!CTlliG. The use of any subcontracting -in the per-
formancc of thc work shall reqLli.re the approva'i of the Project Manager.
If the Consultant subcontracts any of the work to be performed under
this con-Lra.c.t. by Consultant, the Consultant shall be fully responsible
to the City for the zcts and omissions of its subcontractor and of the
persons either directly or indirectly eniployed by its subcontractor, as
it is for tiis acts and omissions of persons. d-ircctly employeti by .it.
Nothing .contaii?ed in tlii s contract sh~ll create any cont\nactuifitil re-
lationship bet~een any subcontractor of Consultant and the City. The
Consultant shall bind every subcontractor and every subcontractor of
a subcontra.ctor by the "crms of this contract applicable to its work
unless specif-ical ly noted to the contrary in .the subcontract in question
approved in writing by the City.
18. PROHIBITED INTEREST. No official of the City who is auth-
orized in such capacity and on behalf of the City -to negotiate, make,
accept or approve, or to exercise any cxecut-iveg supervisory or other
simi 1 cr functions in connection 'wi th the perfot-mance of this contract
shall become directly or indirectly interested personally in thi's con-
tract or any part thereof.
19. NOTICES. All communications rela-king to the day-to-day I
\ i activities for the project shall be exchanged between the City's Pro-
ject Manager and Consultant's Project Manager, who \vi 11 be designated
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e 0. by the representative pc;i"ti es prcmptly upon conimencemeiit of services
h e re u n d e r .
All other notices and commun<cations in writing required Din per-
mi tted hereunder n;ay be de7 i vc?;'cd persona! 7y to the respective fecp-
resenta-Lives of the City and Cons~~ltaant sei: Forth he:oi~!~ and. in such
evezt, the sanic sha7 1 be deemed given to the party receiv-ing th.c stime
as of the date uf such del-ivery, or any such notice oi- written CO~^P,-
muni cation iridy be ma-i 7 ed by U1:i tea States nai 1 , wi th -Fi rs'c class pcst-
before, during or after the execution of this contract, shall affect
or rodify any of the terms or obligations herein contained, nor ~LIC~
verbal agreenent 0;- coi^!versc;tion entitle the Consiil tant to ai-ly add-
i 'i; -i o ii 5.1 p i! y m e 1-1 t w !I a t s o e ?I t? r u n 6 e .;- -t h e -i; e r m s o f t h .i s c o i? t I- a c i. .
21. SUCCESSORS OR ASSIGNS. Subject to the provisions ~f para-
graph 12 above, all terms, conditions and provisions hereof shall inure
to and shall bind each of the parties hereto, their and each of their
respective he-i i-s executors adtnini stratcrs, successors and assigns.
22. EFFECTIVE DATE. This contract shall be effective on and from
the day and year first written.
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IN HITNESS \s'HEREOF, the parties hereto have executed this
agreement on the day and year First above written.
ATTEST :
CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipt:l Corporation of the State of Cal i-fornia
.
MCDOI\rALD & GREFE, INC.
APPROVED AS TO FORH:
Vincent F. Biondo
City Attorney
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ATTACHMENT A
SCOPE OF SE;?VICES
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The following psrayraphs describe the individual tasks that
would be accomplished to produce the economic impact report.
The task descriptions are'follo:,?ed by a discussicn of the
transferability of the proposed economic impact asscssmcnt
rrtethoiology to other projects in the City of Czrlshnd.
A. Task Descrintion
The economic inipact report would be prepared in a total of
seven tasks,
Task I: Defi.ne Alternatives Ana lysis Framework for
~ __ ____ ____ La Costa I4astcr Plan .--_-I_
The discussion in Section I empkzsized t.hat a valid impact
ar,alysis must be established as a comparison between alternatives.
Even if a "no build" future scenario is used as the alternative,
the exact consequences of such ;3 scenario, considered over a -
period as long 2s fifteen to ticenty-f$ve years mUst be 'estahl.ishe6. -
The first tzsk will be devoted to a careful review of the master
plan and intensive discussions with staff to establish the exact
limits of the al-ternative scenario to which a proposed master plan
will he compared, The consultants will put forward reconxiendations
on an alternative analysis fpamework and, if necessary, will defend
the necessity for a formally .stated "base"' against which the pro-
'posed master plah should be compared. ' The task will conclude with
a memorandum describing the alternatives analysis framework, in-
cluding the details of the "base case" fo be used for cobparison. .
f. 1
- -_ Thc second task generally parallels tl~e Land Use Iirrpact I;nalysis
described in the Reqocst €or Proposals, In execution, it has the
pattern of a typical larld use and marketability study that might
he prepared for a private d?veI.op?r.
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Availab1e p02ulatj.0~ amd cmploym2nt yrowth rate estrina'res for the
San Diego regj~on and for the Orange Counky portion of the SCAG
region will be surrmarized end use6 2s one basis for evaluating
the realism of the land uses prqcsed for Raxcho La Costa.
Geogrclphic boundaries :or ccrnpetitive areas 157iI.l be defined for-
each of 'the land uses incl-uded in the naster plan (and if appro-
pr.iai:e, for the "bzse case**). Tke competiti.ve area dcper?ds 011
the individual land use in that I for examp!.e, office coi-,mer-cial
space that ha-s no uncsual de17elOpZen-k concept will depend for its
market. on the growth- of northern San Diego County.
recreati-on an2 second hone-recreation uses wi1.1 compete for a
I-narket area that cxten6s throughout southern Cali-fornia and
beyond, Existing and pl'anned cozpetitive developments will. be
Convention- -.
ciescribFd, based on iniormaliion accuxmlated by l4cDonald 6. Grefe,
Inc. in previous' studies, plus interviews and if appropriate,
site visits in the competitive regions.
Karket studies md sales foreczsts that were used during the
preparation of the proposed inaster plan or 'chat othei-wise can be
made availabl-e from La Costa Land Company will be reviewed and
evaluated. Forecasts of &sorption rates will be compared to the I
actual performance of eancho La Costa and of comparable developments i
throughout California. If market forecasts are not available for E
sane of the proposed land uses, independent estimates will be
experience with comparable projects. 1
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1 i postulated',.based on the review of the regional economy and on
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'The estimates of sales rate wi.11 be expressed as a portion of
the estimated total market each year for the next ten years and
five - y e a r incremznts for the remaining fifteen years. If appli-
*' cablep conpzrable estj-matces will he presented for the base case
being used for co:ip;Lrison The growth rate esti-mates which may i
differ from those us&d prev_iousI.y in the preparation of the
pxopsed rmster plan t;i-l-J. be reviewed with sLaff and if possible
with La Costa Land Companyc Appropriate qualifications regarding I
uncertainties, particularly towards the end of the planning
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period, will be documented.
The proposed phasing 01 development lor the proposed master plan
will. be reviewed independently from a market ing perspective to
determine the vulnerability of entire phases of the 'project.
This arlalysis will aid Task 3 (where a public service plan 1s
developed) to avoid a plan that would extend services premsturely
prior to demonstrated market performance.
Task G \;here the enti-rc economic impact analysis is subject to
a sensritivity and contingency analysis.
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It will be Esed in
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AS part of the market research cone in this task, estimates of
amounts of employment, patterns of retail sales, price of dwelling
-units, etc-, will have been asserbled.
the remaining tasks as part of the economic and fiscal analysis.
Similarly, the market profiles available for the planned land
uses will be used to estimate the demographic characteristics of
the future residents at Rancho La Costa, including the nwber of
These will be used in
. school age children.
Task 3: Prepare PuSXic Services and Facilities Plan - --___- __ -
The proposed master plan 2nd the market research from Task 2
will be used as a basis for developing a phased plan €or the
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exterision of pubIic services. The services to be consizered
will be those on page 3 of the Request for Pxoposals plus, if
the staff conc~irs , consideration of future housing proyrarrls ~
-, __ - ._
.. The puhli.c services plan wj.llf~ia general, zssume no chanGe .in
the csrrent boundari.es of the City or the special districts
providing services to Rancho La Costa a.lthougb opporkunities
for governimen t or5aniza<:ion that are no’ced dlurj-ncj the evaluat5on
will be reported. Ini.tial interviews 1~ill be held with each
publ-ic service agenq7 to cstabl-ish current p01.i cies and philo-
sophies regarding level of service, current. financing techniques
policrles regarding the extension of service, etc, AS noted
n<-L * 1 prcvio~isly, only limited attentioil vi11 be given to the qli L 3 L 1 on
for alternative i.evels at alternative cost in fact exist, - these ! i:
will he analyzed thorouyhly. The 5.ntervj.cws will zlso esta-blj-sh E.
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I i of alternative levels of public scrvLce, but if realistic optior,s
backGround and working relationships that caii be used to advantage
in the following task when public service capital investrnent and
operating. costs are estimated.
After the interviews, a public services plan wiI1 be prepared for
each ,of the services. The agency providtng services wllf be
identified, the level of service will be described speciZically
(e.g- , intensity of police patrolling-in terms of patrol cars
available on each shift at the various points in the inaster
planned are?.} I A schedule of manpo;:.er and faci lit17 requirements
will be prepared anci najor capitcl investrrents will be specified
both by type and by general location. The public facilities and.
services plan will be phased over time (probably in five-year
increments) to indicate the timing of extension of services as
dictated by policy of the providing agency and by the estimated
r-narkct perforinance of Rancho La Costa, .
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Appropriate comicnts will be made about the sensitivity of the
‘phased public services plan to’ actu’al market performance and to -.
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points in the fbturc when the public' scrvj-ces plan should be
coiripared carefully to actual market pcrforinance to avoid ____ either
prcrnature or delayed exte'nsion of services.
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~ Task 4: _____ Estimate Capital - Investment Requirements and
Operating Cossts
Wheirever possible, agency cost standards and agency estimates
will be =sed to establish the capital investrilent requirements and
annual operating cost estimates for each of the pub1.i.c services
being considered.
agency will nonethc1.e~~ be asked to coriment on the consultants'
esti.nAtes.
If as *CY estj-mates are 13ot availah1.et the
,
The de-la'il with ~ihich the .. cost estimates are documented will
depend on the magnitude of thk, cost and the sensitivity of the
est-imating ElStionshipS, in orc?er of preference ;--:include:-'
. cost to the Eancho La Costa Easter plan. Sources for cost - . .
- Agency cost exyeri ence or cost estimates
- Unit cost estimates from comparable jurisdictions;
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- - _. Cost experience.-fKom p-ublished so_ucces 2uch 2s
Engineering -___ News Record (e.q., - doll-ars per million gallons
per day by size of treqtnent facility; dollars per mile Tor - - - - - - - - _. --
1 -- - streets)
The uncertainties associated with the cost estirriates for each
public service will he noted. For example, park acquieition is
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6 c I As discussed elscwl~re in this proposal, the services of a civil
engineering consultant will be used if other sources of data
prove to be unsatisfactory.
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notorious1.y silblject to variation between cost and actual condcm--
nation price and, in the present case it rnay be assumed that .
certain casts are subject to negotiation between the city or
other a.gcncy and Roncho La Ccsta's developers.
One troublesome public service in terms of estimating future cost
is that of e1eirientar.y and secondary education.
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! At present I for
ali practical purpcses, operating ccsts equal. the reven7.1es
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permitted uncie~r SE90,
a stab1.e one bccs,use of the ultimate
Prj-est court decision I
clear, since optior!s hefoize the legi-slzture ran9e from legj timizing
the status quo by constitutional ;;~nendmpnt to an effective removal
of school financing from the local property tax base.
of the uncertainty, it would appear prudent to zssu~r;le curi-ent
cost experience per student in average daily attendzlnce and current
financing Sources. These zssuqtions should be discussed with
school districts and with the County Superintendent of Schools
It is clear thats. this situati.on is not I
impact of the Serrano 17s.
The direc-ticin of change i.s not ent:i rely
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In view
during the study.
Sources of financing for major capii;al investment, such as state
school building aid, -gene-gzJ - obliaation __ >--- - __ bonds-,-reyenuc -- - Qo_nds, -egc.
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will he listed when the capital investment requirements are --
described. ___ _- - _- __ - - - - - A spcciffc-financing plan Grll be deferred until
Task 6, since decj-sions about financing depend on estimates of
public revenues as well as es'timates of capiial requirements -
Task 5: Estimate Public Revenues
The major revenues that wili be influenced by the adopted nzster
plan wi 11 be estinated over the planni-ng perri.od. The following t. ! indicates the type of estimating procedures t4ht will be used for
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each revenue and major agency:
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E s t ima t in g P ro ce (3 u re
~ __ . Revenue
I_---
hveragc 1 and and j mprovcn!ent
values by- land use subcategory -- Property Tax Ease . ---
Sales ti Use Tax - -_ __ - __ -- . Estimates of -- taxable sales
{from Task 2)
-- License & Permit Fees Estimates of economic activity
(from Task 2)
- __ -. . - Service Charges Per capita (or per huildins-Iq type)
Since certain revenues to the county are functions of total
population, these will also be included in the analysis. The
estjmates of federal md state subventions will not include
categorical grant program^ for r.2 jor capital expenditurcs (e. g.,
sewer and water). These pcssible revenue sources will be note6
in Task 6 as part of the financing plan €or required capital I
investments.
E 1 As in the case of the cost estimates, the revenue esti-mates will
be 'qualified as to reliability and sensitivity to actual market
grow-th rates at. Rancho La Cost; -
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Task 6: Prepare Cost/Revenue Analysis and Contingency/ _-
Unce r t a i n t y A% a ly s is
Task G brings together the results of the entire previous effort
and provides a presentation and analysis of both 'the. fiscal and
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econoinic iii'pacts of the proposed master plan. It is iritcnded
that the ana1ysi.s be prepared on an annual basis for the first
ten years, for five year increirients for the reir;a.ining tine of
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-'. . the plznrSng period, and c~uni;l.ative total.s. "7 ine ana1ysj.s t~j.11
be qcantitative, but of critical importance assumptior:s and
uncertaintics will. be stated, concl.usions will he properly
qualified, and contingency provisions will he discilssed.
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T11j.s latter point deserves psrticular einphasis - The creGibility
of an impact estimate based on a twenty-five )year planiiing
horizon depends critri cally on a prcscntation of the contin3enci es
and lfuture cknts that might invalidate the overall conclusions
froin the ana.1ysi.s e In other words, not only must uncertainties
be disclosed., but .they.must he ciisclosed in such a .w$y that the . _.
. . users of the .analysis understand fully xhi.ch, if any, fu-i:ure events
coulc! invalidate ove2-511 conclusions aboiit. the total ec-0norr.i~ and
fiscal irrip'Bct of the proposed Eslster plan. -
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A parallel point concerns an often-neglected use of an economic
iri.pact evaluat:ion It:any of the Zsssimptions 2nd conclusions fro=
the cost/revenuc ana1ysj.s are based on estimates 2nd zssuinpf io~s
as to future development patterns at Rancho La Costa. For example,
the scheduljng or even the need for major capital fa-c_ilities_-will
depend _-- on Z-ertain - - __ land. -~>-es sne-market. perfon"ces_-thit -actually
take place. The impact analysis will be structured so that it--- -
can serve as a cool for- budgeting, evaluation and revis-ion -5f,-in
fact, future events occur at a 'diffcnent schedule than antj clpated
or do not occur' at all. - Insofar- as -pcssibJe, the analysis will-
be written to facilitate future updates and corrections when
anticipated events are clcser to actual occurrence. Appropriate
points will -- be identified where a revicx ahd evaluation will be
useful. Certain of these may be timc-triggered (e-g,, every
five years) and others may be event-triggered (e.g., prior to
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the start of phase X of the development plan). *
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Task 7: Prepare Interpretation and Final Report -I__ ----.-------------- -- - --
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The comprehensive analysis from Task. 6 and the intcrprcta tion
of findings, conclusions, analysis of sensitivities, etc- . --I
will be presented in a. sing1.e project report.
working papers I cslculations, etc, , will. be made available
Additional
to the cj.ty staff to facilitate future updating of the con-
clusions and to help assure that the methodology is available
to the stafi for use in other projects.
B, Applicability __ _____ of __ the I'leti-iodoiogy - ___
The request for proposal notes the distinction between current
land uses and future land USES at Rancho ~a Costa. 'Our proposal
ernphzsi zed the fact that while training and methodology develop-
ment are not an explicit clc-mnt in the present project, the
methodology is in fact applicable to other situations, Table 111-1
summarized the application of the methodology, both to the split
between current and future uses at La Costa and to other Plarlned
Conmunity Zcne or individcal project impact evaluations.
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