HomeMy WebLinkAbout1980-04-15; City Council; Resolution 6151$1 It
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RESOLUTION NO. 61 51
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE
CITY OF CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING
AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF CARLSBAD
AND DAON SOUTHWEST FOR THE PAYMENT OF
CONSULTANT COSTS INCURRED FROM SERVICES
INCLUDING THE PREPARATION OF AN ECONOMIC
AND FISCAL ANALYSIS OF THE RANCHO CARRILLO MASTER PLAN REVISION.
The City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, does
hereby resolve as follows:
1. That certain agreement between the City of Carlsbad
and Daon Southwest for the payment of consultant costs incurred
from services involving the preparation of an economic and fiscal
analysis of the Rancho Carrillo Master Plan, a copy of which is
attached hereto marked Exhibit "1" and made a part thereof, is
hereby approved.
2. That the Mayor of the City of Carlsbad is hereby
authorized and directed to execute said agreement for and on
behalf of the City of Carlsbad.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the
City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, held on the
15th day of April , 1980, by the following vote, to wit:
AYES: Councilmen Packard, Lewis, Anear and Councilwomen Casler and
Kul chin
ATTEST :
(SEAL)
3XHIBIT "A"
AGREEMENT
THIS AGREEMENT is made this day of I
1980, between the CITY OF CARLSBAD, a municipal corporation of
the State of California, hereinafter referred to as CITY, and
DAON Southwest hereinafter referred to as APPLICANT.
RECITALS :
WHEREAS, The Applicant has filed with the City a request
for approval of a proposed project identified as the Rancho
Carrillo Master Plan, and
WHEREAS, The City has determined that its current stq-ff
lacks the expertise to perform the research and analysis
involved with the preparation of an economic and fiscal
analysis report for the said project; and
WHEREAS, the City has determined that to proceed with the
processing of the proposed Rancho Carrillo Master Plan it will
be necessary to hire a consultant to provide the city with the
economic and fiscal analysis which is required as part of the
Master Plan.
NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the covenants and
conditions hereinafter contained, it is agreed as follows:
1. The City will engage a consultant to perform the
necessary work in the preparation of an economic
EXHIBIT "1" to Resolution No. 6151
2.
and fiscal analysis report for that area more
particularly depicted upon a site map attached
hereto marked Exhibit "A" and incorporated herein
by reference.
It is understood that the Consultant services shall
conform to the Proposal attached hereto as Exhibit "B"
and incorporated herein by reference, and may require:
(a) Research and Analysis;
(b) Communication with the city staff;
(c) Written reports; and
(d) Such other data as may be necessary to properly
evaluate the proposed project.
3. The Applicant shall pay to the City tbe actual cost
incurred by the Consultant in completing said ducies,
that such costs shall be based on the costs set forth
in Exhibit "B". The Applicant will advance the sum
of $18,500 as payment on account for the cost Consul-
tant service. In the everxt it appears, as the work
progresses, that said sum will not be sufficient,
the City will notify the Applicant.
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No further work will be performed by the Consultant
incurring an obligation beyond the amount advanced
without an appropriate amendment to this Agreement.
If the actual cost of preparing the report is less
than the Applicant's advance, any surplus will be
refunded to Applicant by City.
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Q 4. It is understood that the Consultant shall be an
independent contractor of the City; that the Appli-
cant agrees to permit the Consultant to enter upon
his property and to perform all work thereon as the
Consultant deems necessary to complete the said ser-
vices. It is agreed that the Applicant at no time
will interfere with the Consultant in the performance
of such work or attempt to influence such Consultant
during the course of his investigation and report.
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IN WITNESS WHEIIEOF, the pzrties hereto have executed
this agreement on the day and year first above written,
CITY OF CARLSBAD, a Municipal
Corporation of the State of
California
ATTEST :
I
' ALETHA L. RAUTE
APPLICANT:
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APPR~VED AS TO ~~mi:
Assistant City Attorney '
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RANCHO CARRILLO
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT
ANALY S I S
A RESEARCH PROPOSAL
1 FEBRUARY 1980
Prepared for:
CITY OF CARLSBAD
1200 ELM AVENUE
CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA 92008
Prepared by:
THE NEWPORT ECONOMICS GROUP
500 NEW'PORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 350
NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92660
(71 4) 640-0755
February 14, 1980
Mr. James C. Hagaman Planning Director City of Carlsbad
1200 Elm Avenue Carlsbad, California 92005
Dear Mr. Hagaman:
Enclosed is our proposal for the Rancho Carrillo Economic and Fiscal. Impact Report. the Carlsbad Oaks study we performed in 1977.
The scope of the study and the metiiodology parallel
I4c look foward to discussing this proposal with you in detail.
President
RJD/mb
Enclosure
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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........................... INTRODUCTION 1
PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM: I
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Phase I - Economic Impact Analysis.
Phase I1 - Municipal Economic Impact Analysis .........
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TIbZE SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATED COSTS ................ 73
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CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUdIES .. .' ................ 14
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INTRODUCTION
e
The primary objectives of the requested analysis are to test the economic ,.
and fiscal feasibility of a Master Plan for Rancho Carrilla.
.the study methodology for this report will provide a methodology and data
Additionally,
base which will be applicable to similar community analysis.
The Newport Economics Group has, during the past 8 years, conducted 60
studies related to this type of feasibility analysis for the public and
private sector.
are a number of key requirements essential for the study.
the toll owing :
To provide the type of meaningful results desired, there - Examples include
A. - Economic Analysis
1. A Sophisticated Land Use Forecast --
In the dynamics of the urban growth scenarios of Southern Califomia,
meaningful land use forecasts are particularly important.
being equal, it is apparent that the accuracy will fluctuate in an
inverse ratio to the tine span covered.
to establish ranges of probable activity wherein one may set confi-
dence limits as to the actual occurrences. The key issue will, of
course, be the rates of absorption for various land use categories
on the property. For each, a most probable absorption must be ac-
companied by a meaningful range indicating the scope of possibility
under varying economic conditions.
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All else
However, it is important
2. - The Implications of Error
Following the rieterinination of high and low sets of probable activity,
it is particularly important to understand implications to the public
facility feasibility should variations in the absorption rates occur.
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In other words the "what if" question series must be analyzed in
relation to the effect on the decision-making process for the City
of Carlsbad.
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3. The Importance of Land Use Balance
Assuming the probabi 1 i ty of varying absorption rates, the second
major concept relates to the reasonableness and econoniic balance
of the end product. A number of tests relative to economic com-
patibility should be applied carefully.
4. The Synthesis of Theoretical Demand Versus Actual Absorption
The land use forecast must carefully relate the elements of potential,
theoretical demand to determine potential 1 and uses under varying sets
of circumstances versus a detailed analysis of all actual absorption
for land uses throughout the region. Those elements relative to long
term trends, cyclical forces, irregular influences and -- often of
grat importance -- the intangible el einent of the public's attitude
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5. _. The Importance of rlarket Strategy
fi key element in overall absorption relates lo the developer's market
strategy.
those goals, the degree of aggressiveness and the level of sophistica-
tion can all be key elements in determining the final outcome.
The goals to be utilized, the scope of effort to achieve
6. F-iscal Analysis
1. The Strategic Importance of Cost Allocation Methodology
One of the imst important and often the most problematical elements
of a fiscal impact study relates to cost allocation.
issues of revenue assignment are clear cut.
can be a different matter.
do not provide the level of detail required to accurately assign costs
to relatively small un-i'ts of the city. Special district .data may- be
similar.
Generally, the
The question of costs
Typically, municipal accounting systenis
It is particularly iiiiportant to consult extensively with
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city staff, to outline clearly the a1 ternative methodologies
available and to insure agreement on the part of a17 persons in-
volved relative to the system to be used.
The Marginal Cost Concept
The most commonplace methodology for fiscal impact studies assigns
prevailing average costs to existing sectors of <he comvunity as
we17 as planned, new areas. Often, the economies or diseconomies
of scale tend to create a significant gap between prevailing average
costs and true marginal costs. During the past few years, municipal
costs have risen substantially more than in proportion to the rate
of growth of many cities involved.
are two key elements which have brought this about. Therefore, it
is particularly important to disaggregate budgeted cost increases to
thoroughly understand the probable real costs of serving added areas
throughout a corrmunity.
Sal es fax A? location Method01 ogy
While mst revenues may be ass-igned without difficulty to appropriate
land uses, the sales tax poses a question of philosophy.
such revenues are assigned to the comercia1 sector -- a system which
does not allow for adjustment in the event of added residential develop-
inent without added commercial. Similarly, if all such revenues are
assigned to the residential sector, the addition of new commercial
experience, TNG believes that the origin of the funds should dictate
the placement of credit.
expenditures of city residents should be assigned back to their sector.
Revenues spent by visitors, tourists or any other non-residents should
be assigned to the conmercial sector. By this methodology, the system
will allow For increases in any sector of the economy without dis-
tort i on.
Inflation and upgraded services
Typically,
- could not be accounted for in the revenue model. On the basis of long
That is, sales tax revenues derived from
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'4. The Cost Versus Quality of Ava
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ah1 e Services
It is mandatory to initially establish a cost of existing services
in relation to their relative levef of quality.
must be made to determine whether prevailing costs are appropriate
for the assignment to new, developing areas.
to comparisons with comparable communi ties, discussions with staff,
planning comission or city counci?, or comparison with a set of
traditionally desired standards.
A realistic appraisal
Considerations may relate
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PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM
The following paragraphs will provide a brief outline of the key
elements involved in the requested work program.
PHASE I - ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT
The initial phase of the study will involve an analysis and projection
of the economic impact of the property on the local and regional housing
markets.
key factors , an annual ized absorption for the specified land uses will be
determined.
Based on the projected demand, supply, market strategy and other
.A. Housing,
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3.
Demand - An analysis and projection of population/households, age,
sex factors, income, eirployment, propensity tc purchase Versus rent
and related fsctws Sn tFe North County area and the Rancho Earrillo
sector.
relative to th;? demand for primary housing, second homes, resort
housing and retirement units.
will be scheriiiles indicating probable absorption by type, density,
occupatxy status, general size and re1 ated factors.
Supply - An Analysis of present and probable future projects similar
and/or competitive in scope to the project.
be made of location, probable offering, timing, price rdnges and
re1 ated .
Market Striitegy - An anafysis of the probable corporate goals,
degree of aggressiveness, strength of mcrchandising, degree of
sophistication and GLher factors which will determine probable
relative strength irt the marketplace for Rancho Carril lo.
Of particular importance will be market segmentation
The end product of this analysis
Detailed analyses will
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;4- - Conclusion - A series of projections for the project in tei-ms of
ranges under varying a1 ternative assumptions as to the absorption
rates for each type of planned housing project thrcughout the
development. Again, it is important to emphasize the use of the
most probable projection versus the conceivable highs and lows
which could occur under varying economic conditions.
B. Comercia1 Facilities
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2.
3.
4.
Oemsrid - An analysis and projection of afl econornic e’lexents
relative to the demand for commercial space .including retail,
restaurants, service facilities and general purpose or medical/
dental office space. Indicators to be examined wwld include
resident and visitor purchasing power, projected distribution of
retail/service expenditures, office-related employment expansion
and other factors. The end product of this phase of the study
would be an annualized schedule of demand for space in each of
the reIevaEt con~mercial categories.
Supply - An analysis of the present and anticipated future
supply of competitive facilities in terms of location, land use
mix, evident strength and inipact on the property.
Market Stratgy - - A determination of the apparent strategy to be
uti1 ized by Raricha Carrillo management to merchandise comr,ercial
facilities. The aggressiveness and degree of sophistication in-
volved will have a critical impact on the potential absorption
of these land uses.
- Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, a schedule of
probable absorption for each of the proposed comercia1 land uses at
Rancho Carrillo would be prepared with 5 most probable level versus
the potential highs and lows.
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,-C. RecreationaJ Facilities
1.
2.
3.
4.
Demand - An analysis and projection of economic factors pertinent
to the dcniand for planned recreational facilities. Key factors
will concern projected participation rates among residents in
add? tion to the potential for non-resident patronage (as deemed
desirable).
pf anned . )
Supply - Analysis of the present and anticipated future supply
of competitive facilities in terms of location, market strength,
land available and total impact on the property.
Market Strategl- Planned operating methods, whether by the
community association, private group, semi-private or other
should be cons! dered
Conclusion - Based on the foregoing sets of studies, recommen-
dations as to the appropriate mix of recreational facilities would
be made - including phasing and land requirenients.
(A determinant only if non-resident participation is
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PHA% I1 ,- Mill\lICIPAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
'This phase of th2 study will anafyze in detail the economic and fiscal
First, will be considered the service levels and ifipact of the plan.
costs, followed by capital expenditure requirements and revenues.
A. Service Requirements/Costs . i
1. Quantitative Factocs - The initial phase of this section of the
report will involve an analysis of the physical requirements fclr
service to the new area and the cost levels involved, as follows:
a. - Trend Analysis - The municipal and various special district-
budgets will be,.analyzed over time to determine appropriate
per unit (per acre/per dwelling unit) costs for varying
sectors of the planned new area.
particularly important to differentiate the elements of cost
increases as to real marginal costs, inflation, upgrading
of services and related factors.
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As mentioned, it will be
b. Consultation with Agency Staff - It will be mandatory to
consult at length with each operating deyartment of the -=
City and the special districts relative to service require-
ments and costs for Rancho Carrillo. As indicated, niunicipal
accounting systems generally do not allow precise cost break-
downs in terms of varying land uses. Therefore, it is
necessary to obtain additional data as to operations. For
example, many police and fire departments have computerized
response data which indicates their exact workload, the
location, the type of land use involved and the cost involved.
From this information, realistic estimates can De made for
servi ci ng expanded areas of the City .
c. Rancho Carrillo as a Unique Sector - A significant amount of
the analysis of service levels and respect-ive costs will relate
to the manner in which Rancho Carrillo may be differentiated
from the balance of Carlsbad. A careful review of the existing
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municipal budget would allow generql estimates of unit costs for
serving the varying types of land uses in the Cjty.
may well be significant changes in these elements relative to
planned new areas.
However, there
Variations in Service Requirements - As outlined under the land
use analysis, consideration must De given to the implications of
varying service requirements related to conceivable variations in
the rate of absorption of land uses.
rates of use may be considered, it will be particularly important
to consider the necessary reactions to market activities which
While the most probable
either speed up or slow down development of the project. Bond
financing requiremmts, for example, can be a critical considera-
tion with- respect to timing,
Services to be Covered - The analysis will consider 7 all services
now made available by the City and the special districts. Addition-
ally, consideration may well be given to added facilities and/or
services which the City and/or agencies may now be considering,
sul tation with staff will 'determine those areas which should be
added to the existing spectrum.
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Qual i tati ve Factors
This phase of the study will consider the existing quality level of
services to provide a cornparison with prevailing per unit costs.
a. Present Standards - A comprehensive analysis of present service
standards throughout the City and the special districts.
b, Coinparison -___ of Service Levels - An analysis of those prevailing in
relation to comparable Southern California communi ties to identify
s i mi 1 a r i ti es a nd/o r ma j or d i f -T e r en t i a 1 s .
c. I Municipal/Agency Policies - A review of all studies, documents,
policies and proposals for changes in service levels and/or upgraded
services throughout the community.
t d. Discussions with Staff - An exploration with municipal/agency
staff relative to desired changes and the incorporation of
such changes in the study.
e. Specific Services for Rancho Carrillo - An analysis of con-
ceivabl e changes/revisions in service 1 eve1 standards which
would be particularly appl icabl e to the property.
f. Determination of Service LeveJ Requirements - A study to
determine whether existing services should be applied or to
what extent new service levels and their corresponding costs
will be applicable. Of particular importance in this phase
of the study will be consideration of the implications in-
volved in changed and/or upgraded service levels for Rancho
Carrillo.
B. Projected Capital Facil ity Expenditures
This phase of the report will consider the capital requirements and
their respective costs as'follows:
1.
2.
3.
%. Capital Requirements - An analysis and projection of a71 municipal-
and special district physical requirements through buil d-out of
Rancho Carri'llo.
fire substations, parks, streets, utility systems, schools,
libraries and any other pertinent investments in the community
infrastructure.
Responsible Party - An analysis of each expenditure in terms of
the parties to construct and to fund the project.
Covered in the analysis will be items as police/
On-site re-
quirexents wi l 7 be general ly those of the developers , though
special water/sewer system or other items may require agency
investment agreements , shared costs and related factors.
Public A=y Financing- .. For those investnients to be provided by
public agencies, an analysis of the most appropriate financing
vehicles must be considered to include bonding, special assessment
districts, tax rates or other factors. Consideration must, in
addition, be given to the potential for participation by other
agencies in terms of grants or loans including the federal govern-
ment, the state of the County of San Dicgo.
4. --- Cost Allocation - There may well be circumstances where financia?
responsibility for particular investments must be shared among
Rancho Carrillo arid other areas. An analysis will be made of
a1 ternative allocation schemes to identify the most appropriate
for each particular investment.
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C. Municipal Revenues
This phase of the report will consist of an analysis and projection of
revenues to accrue to the municipality and the special districts
from the existing and proposed sections of Rancho Carrillo as fol-
-lows :
1.
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I Revenues per Unit - A determination of the most appropriate per
dwelling unit and/or per acre revenues to be derived from each
budgeted item. Revenues as property and sales tax may be pre-
cisely determined for each individual project. However, a
number of other revenues must utilize the per unit averages in
the absence of specific data.
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2. Sales Tax Allocation - As mentioned, the philosophy utilizeb,in
the allocation of sales tax revenues will materially affect the
apparent f-iscal impact of individual residential or commercial
developments. The key factors in this allocation should be the -- orbin of the funds which produce the tax revenues.
D. Cost/Reyenue Projections
Based on the foregoing sets of analysis, the costlrevenue balance
for each phase of the proposed project will be prepared.
precise forniat my be determined at a later date, TWG has found that
determination of the cost/revenue balance at five year intervals and --
most importantly -- upon coriipletion of all improvements is the most
Nhile the
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meaningful.
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The final report will provide a documented summary of all assumptions,
cal cul ations and concl usions .
policy questions concerning the project to be resolved by the planning
commission and the city council.
In addition, the report will provide a written methodology on the land
use and fiscal impact analysis to allow staff the opportunity to provide
necessary revisions in the report at a later date and to allow use of
the ecottoiiric/fiscal models for other community development plans.
Of particular importance wi 11 be the
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TIME SCHEDULE AND ESTIMATE COSTS
Time Schedule
The report can Se completed,within a 12 week time frame,
the eyent of prolonged delays, requested revision in the report or
the requirement for extensive revisions in the land use plan to
provide acceptable marketability, would the time frame exceed this
period .
Only in ,
Budget Requirements
The ecoiiom-id and fiscal impact studies would be performed for a
maximum budget of $18,500, Precise costs will be contingent upon
a number of factors as the availability of data and the number of
pub7 l’c presentations required.
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CLIENTS FOR SIMILAR STUDIES i r
1. City of Newport Beach - fiscal impact analysis system, contact
Bob Lenard (640-2218)
! 2. City of Palm Springs - fiscal 'impact analysis system, contact t
i ! Murre11 Crump - now with city of Palm Desert (346-061 1
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: 3, San Antonio Chamber of Comerce .. f-iscal impact analysis system,
contact Kathy Obrtotti (512/227-8781) 1 ,
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.. .. 4. The Irvine Company - ntimerous marketing and fiscal impact
F studies, contact Earl Timmons (644-301 1 )
5. The Lusk Company - numerms marketing and fiscal impact studies,
contact Don Steffensen (557-8220)
Studies now underway include a major economic impact analysis and
projection for the city of Indio.
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TIiE A'BVPORT ECONOMICS GROUP
QUALIPICATIONS A??D EXPERIBPJCE
The Neuport Econor&cs Grottp, Inc., formed in 1971, is a professCona2
research and consulting firm offep;ng serzlices in &ha fieZds of general
economic anaZysis on a ;-tationat and regional basis, market research,
development planning, finmcial axalysis, md fiscal impact studies
i
lL&ng the fki~'s first 8 years of operation, 350 studies have been
completed for oger 200 cZients in 22 states from ~Zoridcr. to Hawaii,
Primipals of the firm are able to offer the unique combination of
extmsive backgrowizds in yov,ament and private industry eonbi-ned with
management eqei<ence in nafiional corporations . The li7eiqort Eeoiwn6cs
Group, Iw. is firmly con;mitted to the goal of povidi-ng clientsXth
the economic tools ad stmtegies -that z,%Zl lead to the conpZetion of
sueeessf uZ pmj'ec-ts.
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THE IJENPORT ECONOMICS GROUP
REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS
Bus <ness Firms
American NationaZ Housinq, Iiewport Beach
Anaheim Hills, Inc,, Anaheim
&osa Deue Zopment and Manugemme, Inc., Newpork Beach, Avco Community Deve Zopers, Inc., San Diego
The Bergheer Company, Santa Ana
Bizby Rmch Company, Los AngeZes BreZaca, I"., Irv-ine ,
DomZd L. Brei1 Co., Los AngeZes
Chevron Lcmd and De've Zopent 00. , San Francisco CoZd#eZZ Banker Management Corporation, Newport Beach
Couington Bros. Const-mction Co., Fullerton Cwlci-Turner Company, flewport Beach
J
&on Dme Zopmient Corporation, IJewport Beach Deans DeveZoptnent Cotnpax.y, Newport Beach
Desert Inn MoteZs, Laneaster
Wa Zt fisney h70r Zd, Or Zando, Florida
Fisher Land Corporation, Fresno
Freres Jucque Rcxkmrant Co., Inc., Nezqort Beach Joe E. FZ3iC.z & Co., AZbvquerque, New Nexico
Fviita-U. S. A., Santa Monica
Genstar Deve Zopment, Inc., San Francisco GfeZZer Development Company, Inc, , 'Imine
Great: Lakes Properties, Inc., Torrance
E. W. Hahn, Inc., Los AngeZes The Imine Company, l?ewport Beach
Mcor Realty , OakZand
Kaufman and Broad, Inc., Imine
hid Resources, &e., New York City Leadership Housing Systems, Inc., San Diego
!The Lurk Co:rpany, IJetdpoYt Beach
The I4iZZiam Lym Co., Netqmrt- Beach
14aui Land and PZneappZe Co., Maui, kmaii
The McCurL3ty Coxpany, Anaheim
MCK Deve Zopnmz-t, Inc. , Lomcrs Swzta J'Q
Mission Vicjo Company, Mksion Viejo
The Newport DmcZopment Co. , Nmport Bcach
i?issan Xokor Coi-;l>ora/..ion in U. S. A., Los AngeZcs
Nu-Vest Devalopnicrzt Corp., Nmport- L'caclz
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Business Firms
(Continued) -
Oak Industries, Sax Diego
Parkcenter Corporation, Smta Am The PrmdentiaZ Insmunce Co. of AmeYYica, Armport Beach
Rancho MutiZija, Ojai
Resel-ue &Z Company, Apple Valley
SaffeZZ & McAdwn, Imine San Diego Pacific hnd Co., Sun Diego
Sears, Roebuck & Co., AZ@nbrir.
C. J. Segerstrom I; Sons, Costs Mesa Sequoia Pucifie -'A Southem Pacific Company, Smta Ana
Shm & Talbot, Neuport Beach
SprouZ -Ent-erp~ses, Albuquerque, New Mexico
TechbiZt CorLstruction COT., Sm Eego fieor Properties, Ine., Santa Ana Toyota Idotor Sales - U.S.A., Inc.
VanguaFd BuiZders, San Emus
Ji'alker Cf: Lee Rea2 Esta-be, Sazta Ana Robert P. Vamington Co. , Inc., Imine
Weatherfie ld Yomes, Tustin
I e
' Universities
+ Uviversity of California, Berkeley
University of Ca Zi fornia, Irvinc
Re s e ar ch Fi r.ms
Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park
Pub Z i e Age n ci e s/k s s o e i at i ons
AZiso Waste Water Management Agency, Laguna Beach Atrdubon Society,; Miami, Florida
California Bui Zders Counci Z, Sacramento
City of - Boca Xaton, Florida
City of Carlsbad, California City of LakezJood, Ca1-i fornia
City of Newport Bzach, California City of Palm Springs, California
City of Santa Fe Springs, California
City of Stanton, California
.I Greater San Antoizio Chamber of Commerce, Texas
Los AngeZes WorZd Trade Center
Orange County Environmenta Z ldanagement Agency Orange County Fair Board Orlando Central Business District, Florida
San Bernardino County Fair Board
State of California Division of Fairs and Expositions
e @ SERVICES OFFERED
, REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Studies of nationaZ/regionaZ economic criteria to provide
guidelines fo~ regional business pZanning, Zong-range land
use pZanning and urban growfih policy. Major studies incZude: _-
d The FZorida RegionaZ Economy, Boca Raton
% The Irvine Ranch Long Range Potential, Irvine
% Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii
Ea Recession Impact/ReaZ Property Investments, Phoenzx
REGlONAL NARKET ANALYkTS
Analysis and-projection of market support for specific areas cotrering consumer product/service distribution and/or capi-taZ
investment. Major studies include:
@ Cadi2 lac Auto Distribution, Sokthern California
0 Casino/Caming Activity, Nevada
$a Horseracing/Parimutuel Flagering, CaZ-L fornia .r
8 Jet Boat Market, California
S RetaiZ Merchandise Demand AnaZysis, Orange County
C OMNU N IT Y DE VEL 0 P M E NT P L k N N I G
Studies reZated to general economic and market support cri- teria pertinent to community planning with respect to the
optimum mix and absorption of Zand uses by type, the most advantageous residential densities and retative Zocations .
throughout the community, the essential recreationaz and environmental features in addition to al 2 commei?cial/service
facilities. Najor studies include:
0 City of Boca'Raton, FZorida
8 Prvine-By-The-Sea, fleQport/Laguna
0 Scripps Ranch, Sun Diego
'..@ Thibodo Ranch, Sun Diego
0 West Ranch, lioust-on
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PROFESSIONAL SERVICE FIRM ASSOCIATIONS
(Projects compZeted on a cZient or joint venture basis)
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PZanning, ArchitscturaZ & Engineering
BaZZeu/NcFmZand, Planners & Architects, Irvine Robert Bein, WiZZinm Frost & Associates, Newpo,& Beach
BoyZe Engineering, Santa Ana
Hart, Krivatsky & Stubee, San Francisco &worth, CarroZZ & Andersm, San Capistrans
Jeruzi~ys-HaZcZe~nan-Hood Engineers, Santa Ana
David KZages and Associates, Newport Beach
ikdd, KeZsey & Voodard, #&port Beach Langdon & 1;JiZsm, Architects, Newport Beach
Ed Lohrbach, AIA, lv7ewport Beach
Desmond Muirheac?, Inc., Newport Beach
Daze NaegZe 8 Associates, La JoZZa
Peter Ostrcindm & Susu Kishiyamn Architects, Imine
Mn. L. Pereira Associates - Planners, Architects,
PhilZips, BrandL- & Reddick, Nmport Beach
!The Phwlng Center, Newport Beach
Engineers, l?ewport Beach
Jack G. Raub Co., Uewport Beach
Richar~son-Nagy-~~~rtin, IJewport Beach
Rick Engineering, Sa71 Diego
Alan Vuorkees Associates, IVedport Beach
J. L. Vebb PZanning, Newport Beach Vest-ec Services, lizc., mstin WiZsey & Ham, 150s Angeles
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SERVICES OFFERED e
NEW DE VELOIPMFNT PROJECT PLANWING
Detailed studies for individuaZ projects in the Zand develop- ment field including subdivisions, shopping centers, office
bui Zdings, industriaZ parks and related. Jdarket support data covers anticipated saZes/ab.sorptton, ‘price/rent Tanges, sqzare .
footage, price per square foot, Zand use mix and reZated fac-
tors. Major studies include:
@ Irvine Regional Center, lrvine
9 Newport Center, Newport Beach
8 Reeves Ranch, Sun Clemente
8 University City Center, San Diego
8 Village of Woodbridge, Irvine
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECB PLAI?NING
Analyses of redevezopment potential reZated to market support-,
land assembZage/vaZue and financial feasibility. Major studies inc Zzrde: - .-
8 Central Bu::iness Dcstrict, Orlando
e Cent2.a 2 Business District, Phoenix
8 Lido Peninsula, Newport Beach
Q McCuZZough Properties, Houston
Q Pacific Ocean Park, Santa Monica
HO USI I; G A’BED S/ H 0 US1 IVT G A S S IS TA N C E P R 0 G R A NS
Performance of housing inventory studies to determine avai Za-
bility, price range and structural condition. Demand ana Zysis concentrating on ability to pay versus rent/housing payment
Zev2Zs, the needs of larger families and the eZderZy. Prepara- -tion of Housing Assistance Plan data for HCD fund applications. Major studies include:
0 City of Lakcwood
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City of Sant-a Fe Springs
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SERVICES OFFERED i
CONHERCIAL-INDUSTRIAL SITE LOCATION
AnaZyses of aZternative Zocations for industria Z and office space
rates, transportation, cl..imate and reZa%ed factors. Nu jor studies
include:
users covering general economic climate, labor demand/suppZy, wage !
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d IndustriaZ Location Criteria, Irvine Industrial
Comp Zex, Irvine
0 Industria2 Dev.eZopment Potential, PaZomar Airport,
CarZsbad
@ Comparative Wage Rates, Orange County
HOTEL-RESORT PLAIlrNING
AnaZysis of market support and economZc feasibility for commercia2 and resort hoteZ operations. Iajor studies include: ..
’ Q Costa Smeralda, Sardinia
8 Irvine-by-the-Sea, Newport/Laguna
d Kapalua Resort, I4au<, Hawaii .
Q Las Vegas Hotel-Casino, Nevada
63 WaZt Disney world, OrZando, Florida
- ECOWOMIC IMPACT ANA LYSIS
The effect on population, emp Zoyment, income, expenditures and investment rcsulting from new community developments as new in-
dustria2 plants, commercial pro jects, recreation, educational faciZities and residential developments, Major studies include:
0 Irvine Industrial Complex
0 University of CaZiforn;a, Irvine
B Newport Cen-LeP, Newport Beach
B Rancho Bernnrdo, Sun Diego
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1 SERVICES OFFERED
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PIS C,4 L IMP A Cir' A HA L YS IS I
Via computer systems, the fiscaZ impact of new development on
the governing agencies/schooZ. district is performed. HighZy detailed cost/revenue s-t;udies indicate anticipated net defi-
cits or net benefits resulting from land deveZopment aZterna- 1
tives. Major studies include: 1
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8 B?:xby Properties, Long Beach
0 C<ty of Boca Rafion, Florida (Growth Managsment)
i I d City of flewport Beach, California (FiscaZ Impact t
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AnalysCs System) t t
kr Foothi 2 Zs Property, PaZo Alto
6s Uziversity of CaZifornia, Irvine
F I WA €JCI A L A UA LYSIS -
Via computer systems, income and cash flow statements outline
initial investment, loan disbursements, operating reverzues/ costs and related c29iteria. Major studies include:
0 ADMA Co., Inc. Properties, San Diego
0 Holstein Properties, BZ l'oro
B KapaZua Resort, Maui, Hawaii
b Sequoia Pacific Properties, Santa Ana
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(bAJOR HOUSING I4ARKET STUDIES @
Chevron Properties, Bakers fie Zd - Demd/Absorption Study.
Chmrun Properties, Carpmter-ia - Condominim Study.
City of Boea Baton, FZodda - Growth Z4magemm-b.
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City of Lakmood - Housing Inventory.
City of OrZaiido, FZorida - CBD Redevelopment.
City of Srmtn Fe Springs - Resident Survey.
Comty of Omnge - FIousing Element.
Domingum Rmch, Sarni5.a Ana Canyon - amad Analysis for Attached axd
1rfin.e Ranch - SeKes of Market Analyses for aZZ Housing Types.
Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii - Coizdominiuq Stu&.
Kruwner Ranch, Smta Ana Canym - Condominim Study.
L<do Peninsula, &?Upo& Biaeh - Redgve Zopment Stud&.
Lusk Properties, CarZsbad
iYmoth, Cali foriia - Resort/Condominiwn Study.
Detached %its.
Condominim and MobiZe Home Park Stu&.
MCK Properties, Perris Lake, Ca Zi fomia - Rpartment/Hobi le Bone Park Study.
Pricing Study. f4ission Hills Ranch, San Juan Capistrmo - Demmd/Rbsorption/
NohZ Raich, Orange - Condominkm Study.
Penasquitos Ranch, San Diego - Series of Hotlsing Market Studies.
Reeves Ranch, San. CZemente - Dam" Analysis for Attached cmd
Detached Units.
SeApps Ranch, BZ Tor0 - SeKes of Stzrdies.
Thibodo Ranch, Sun Diego - Ilousing Markt Analysis.
Urdversi-t-y Cit-y, San Dicgo - Series of Housing Market Stu&Lcs.
University of CaZifornia, 1rvin.e - campus Tinpact on 1ious;ng
Dcmmd.
lt%iti?iy Ranch, E2 Toro - Housing Mzrket AnaZysis.
ARIZOA'A
Co iorad? River lnnoenix
SeottsdaZe Tucson
dndzyson
Apple VaZZey
Arcadia Bakers f ie Zd
Bernmds Dunes
Cmgm Lake
CUI> Zsbad Cathedra2 City Chic0
ChZno .
CoZ-Lon Corzna
Costa Me sa &qxr tino
El i4cmte
EZ TOYO Fountain VaZZcy
Fu Z Zerton Garden Grove
€leme t Hunt-ington Beach
Indiain Jk Z Zs
Indio lrviize
La Jo Z Za
Lagw2a Beach
LalM??OOd Iancns Lei.
Long Dcach
Lor A ZmrLt-os
&s Anp Zes Ojai
I?KJhJoOd
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THE IJBVPORT ECofiomcs GROUP
PBO JE CT L 0 CA T-TOlirS
Mmoth Mission Viejo
Elodest0 Neqore Beach
Oxbario Palm Deser-i;
Palm Springs
Perrir Lake PaZo Alto
PaZomar Aiqort Rmcho E emardo
Rancho Cucmonga Rancho Iii"irage
Rancho Renasquitos Red B Zuff
Reding Riverside
SWL Bezmardino
Sm Clemnte
Sun Diego Sun Francfsco
Sun Jose
Sm Jum Cqis trmo Santa Ana
Smta Buxbara Santa CZara
Santa Fe Springs
Smta Monica
Stanton
Stockton Sunnyva 2 e Torrcrizce
Ventura
VictorviZZe
vis %a
WatsonviZ Ze We s tmi 32s t er
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t FLORIDA f
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BAVAII I
IDAIIO
Szm VaZZey
ILLINOIS
Chicago
I?EYEDA
Lake Tahoe-., L'. Las Vega5
Piramid Lake Reno
AZbwq xerque
OKLAHOW
TuZsa
TEXAS
Clear Lake City
DaZ Zas Houston Sun Antonio
Seat t Ze
SENIOR STAFF RESUMES
PRESIDENT
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Robert Dunham is the President of The Newport Economics Group -
4nd has direct responsibility for all corporate operations.
His experience in economic ariaZysis and narket research spans twenty 3ears.
Major projects he has directed incZude (1) a series of eco- nomic and fiscal impact anaZyses for private sector urban
deveZopments, city/county governments and the University of
CaZifornia, (21 market support studies for many commercial, industria 2, and residentiaZ Zand development projects nation- wide, (3) hotel-resort feasibility studies in Arizoxa, Cali-
fornia, Hawaii and hTevada, and (4) Idarina operation analyses in Iiewport Harbor azd the Colorado River.
Prior to joinixg Tlze Newport Economics Group, NP. Dunham
tlas Manager of Economic Research for The Irvine Conpany. In
that capacity, he direc-bed economic research and market plan- ning for ne13 urban devezopments including housing, office buildings, hotels, all types of retaiZ/service facilities, and industria Z parks. !dajor individuat projects include -New-
port Center, The i-rvine Regional Center, and The Irvine Coastal Sect-or.
Refore reZoca*ing to Southern California, Mr. Dunham was Senior
Economist for the Del E. Webb Corporation headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. He conducted economic and market research
studies in the western states and Central America covering a
number of major retiremenk comnunities, shopping centers, hotels
ana' gumkng casinos.
As an economist for the Arizona EmpZoymmt Secxrity Commission,
he performed labor market studies, pZant Zocation analyses and wage survzys for majoF employers.
Mr. Dxnham is a graduate of $he University of Arizona with a Bachelor oJ Science degree in Business Administration. He aZso comptatcd substantial graduate woi-k in Economics at Arizona
State University.
Mr. Dunham is ac-tively associated with the National Association
of Business Economists.
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I FREDRICK II. GOOD . VICE PRESIRENT
Fred Good serves as Vice President of The Newport Econoniics Graoup with ppogram management- responsibilities in urban devel- -
opment projects and major investment analyses. His research and management exper<ence couers virtually all phases of de-
ve Zopment-; resident;aZ, commercial, and industrial plant lo- cation studies.
Key developments Zn which Its has been involved incZude Broad-
13Qy Plaza - a multi-use development in the Los Angeles CBD,
the Pacific Trade Center - a high-rise office complex in fiono-
lult!, high-rise condominiums for Twen-tieth Centzcpy Fox, Cen- tury City and marina developments at Dana Point, The Channel
Islands and Costa Smeralda, Sardinia.
Present assignments inc Zude analyses of development potentia 2 and disposition of properties in the Sun Pedro/Long Beach sec- tor for the Community Redevelopment Agency in Los Angeles,
Mr. GOG~'S prior experience includes ihe position of Yice President, Urban Studies for Economic 'Research Associates in
Los Angeles where he directed numerous market support and
economic feasibility stu'dies fop government and private gn- dus -';r+y
For the Los Angeles CRA, Mr, Good was instrumental in devel- oping specific plans for the Beacon Street Project on the
San Pedro WateiQfront, For the Los Angeles Harbor Repartvent, he completed a comprehensive rnultiple use economic and finan- cial development plan for Sun Pedro's Main Channel West Bank,
Mr. Good initiated the economic revitalization plan for the
City of South Pasadena (now underway); assisted in the hous- ing and comxercial aspects of Pasadena ts redevelopment; and
evaluated the short and long term implications of the bond- ing p>=ogram for the Urban Renewal Project at Redondo Beachts
King Harbor Marina.
Previously, he was Senior Economist for SRI Internat<ooial in Menlo Purk. Assignmcnts covered a broad range of real estate and industria 2 projec-ts. Nr. Good mnnaged the economics de- pnrtmcnt of khc European Office of SRI for an extended period.
He is a Berekely graduate and received un MBA Jrom the Gi9aduat-e School of Business at Stanford. lie is a membei. of Lambda AZ-
pha, the International IfonorarJj Land 1.conomics Fraternity and tlze Nestern Economics Association,
SAYGBR C. HEDBICK JX.
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SEIlJIOR ASSOCIATE
Sandy Bedrick is a Senior Associate with I2 years experience in the field of economic anaZys.is reta-ted to real estate de-
velopment and land use decision making. His expertise encom-
passes a wide range of pubZic and private real estate projects, including recreation orient-ed development, resideztial devel-
opment, commercia2 pi.ojects, socio-economic .impact and cost/ benefit analyses.
Recent Newport Economics studies directed by Hr. Hedrick in- cZucle u re-deveZopment project analyses in Long Zieach, a 1000 acre custom home proje'ct in ojai and a variety of Zand use studies in Lancas ter.
Prior to joinkng hrewport Economies, Mr. Hedrick was a V;ce
President of Development Economics, Inc. (1971-19751 and a Senior Associate with Economics Research AssocCates in 50s Angeles for five years.
In recreation economics, Mr. Hedrick has evaluated the econom- ic feasibility of an 1,100 acre resort development at Steam-
boat Springs, Colorado, theme recreation parks near Denver, Colorado and Detroit, Michigan, resort-oriented condomini-xms,
pr5vate and public marina development and recreation vehicle parks.
In housing analysis, kir. Redrick has conducted market and fea-
sibility studies for residential projects ranging from small
sinnta- fnmZ%u tracts and ar3artment projects -to Zarqe master- .-~ - - - il - - __- - - ._ --. --L I" " __
planned community developments.
Commercial studies have included numerous market analyses, .. .- .* *. 7" . _I. n 7 r - .- - .- - feaSzbzLLty and p Lannz-ng stuclzes for snoppzng cen-cers, rurty-brry
from smaZZ neighborhood centers to major regionaz shopping centers. €le recently completed tke market and feasibility
analysis for a major kheme specialt-y retail ce.nter in Denver, CoZorado.
Broadway Plaza Center in downtown Los Angeles. He participated in the feasibility analysis for the
Mr. Tledrick IzoZds an M.B.A. from U.S.C. and a B.A. in economics $r om S t an ford 1Jn i v e rs i t y e
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Mr. Regan has management responsibility for a broad range of economic
development and urbaiz studies. spans tweZve years with projects completed throughout
man.? of the major metropolitan areas in the United States, Mexzco, CentraZ America: and the Mediterranean.
He recently completed a series of housing market analyses
for the Orange County Housing Element. The emphasis was on effective verSus non-effective demand and alternative
housing program strategfes.
sexdies with specialization in resorf
His consulting experience
Prevtously, Jim Regan was a Vice President - Real Estate
Progrums for Economics Research Associates in Los AngeZes. In that capacity., he directed a number of major community
anulysis programs. Loca 2 Zy, these included economic and
fiscal impact studies of the Coyote Elills development in Fullerton, portions of the ci't'y of Orange master p~an, the Broadway Plaza project in Los AngeZes and Vestlake
Village. Additionally, he has performed simi Zar studies in Atlanta, DuZZas, Denver and PhiZadeZphia.
His resort experience incZudes a numbel. of developments
for POIJATUR (tourism development agency) in Mexico, - . Manzani Z 20, Puer-to Val Zar-i;a and AcapuZco. Hote Z and
reZated resort activity jOeasibi1ity studies have been conducted throughout $he United States covering ski re-
sorts in the Rocky Mountain area, hoteZ/goZf/tennis re-
sosts in Palm Springs and retirement/resort communities
in Sa?? Diego.
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Mr. Regan holds a B.S. in chemistry from Marquette Univer- sity and an M.B.A. -Finance from the Varton Graduate School
at the University of Pennysylvania. He is a member of the American Land DeveZopnient Association and a member of the
AIA Regionu2 Urban Design Assistance Team.
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